20* Raptors/Warriors Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +5 

The Toronto Raptors had their fourth-worst shooting performance of the entire playoffs in Game 2.  They shot just 35-of-94 (37.2%) from the field, yet they still only lost by 5 points.  Look for them to shoot the ball much better in Game 3 and to prove once again that they are one of the best road teams in the NBA. 

Of course, injuries to the Warriors makes the job a lot easier for the Raptors.  They will still be without Kevin Durant for Game 3, Kevon Looney is out for the playoffs after suffering a shoulder injury in Game 2, and Klay Thompson is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury also suffered in Game 2. 

The Looney injury is getting overlooked.  The trio of Curry, Green and Looney have the best 3-man rating in the entire playoffs at +20.2 compared to only +2.5 without Looney on the floor.  They have a +122.5 offensive rating with Looney compared to a +109.4 rating without him.  Plus, they have the best 3-man defensive combination in the entire playoffs when Curry, Green and Looney are on the floor together. 

The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Raptors are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  A better shooting performance tonight will have them taking advantage of the Warriors’ injuries and likely winning this game outright, though we’ll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-128) 

The Red Sox should be much bigger favorites on the Run Line today over the lowly Kansas City Royals.  The Royals are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall to fall to 19-41 on the season. 

Chris Sale isn’t off to his best start, but he still commands more respect than he’s getting.  His stuff is still there clearly as he has 98 K’s in 68 1/3 innings this year with only 19 walks.  Sale is 10-8 with a 2.90 ERA in 23 career starts against Kansas City. 

Jake Junis is no match for Sale.  He is 4-5 with a 535 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six home starts.  He’s backed by a poor bullpen that has a 5.86 ERA in home games this season. 

The Royals are 6-25 in home games off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, losing by 2.1 runs per game in this spot.  Kansas City is 27-77 in its last 104 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115) 

The Tampa Bay Rays are riding a season-high four-game losing streak.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today to end this skid, and they should get one against the lowly Detroit Tigers, who are just 23-34 on the season. 

Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton is a legit Cy Young contender.  He is 6-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 83 K’s in 67 1/3 innings.  Morton is also 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in seven road starts. 

While Spencer Turnbull is a quality starter for Detroit, the Rays just have so many other advantages.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters compared to 3.1 for Detroit.  The Rays have a 3.57 bullpen ERA compared to a 5.24 ERA for Detroit. 

Detroit is 5-20 after scoring 8 runs or more over the last two seasons, losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 27-12 in their last 39 road games.  The Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Detroit is 1-10 in its last 11 home games overall.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -135 

The New York Mets return home from a tough seven-game road trip at the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  Look for them to get back on track at home here where they are 15-9 on the season and scoring 5.1 runs per game. 

Noah Syndergaard hasn’t put up his best numbers this season, but the talent is still there.  And Syndergaard loves facing the Giants, going 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.864 WHIP In six career starts against them. 

Madison Bumgarner is 3-5 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 starts for the Giants this season.  He isn’t likely to get much run support here as the Giants are hitting .222 and scoring 3.9 runs per game on the season. 

The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series.  San Francisco is 1-7 in Bumgarner’s last eight starts during Game 1 of a series.  The Giants are 7-19 in Bumgarner’s last 26 road starts.  The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.  New York is 10-3 in Syndergaard’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Mets Tuesday. 

20* Dodgers/Diamondbacks NL West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing excellent value tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball and are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now because of it. 

Robbie Ray is probably the best starter the Diamondbacks have, and he gets the ball tonight.  Ray is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 12 starts this season with 82 K’s in 62 2/3 innings.  Ray is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four home starts, and he’s 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 17 career starts against Los Angeles. 

Walker Buehler just hasn’t been consistent at all this season for the Dodgers after having an excellent rookie year last season.  He is 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA in 11 starts.  Buehler has also posted a 4.70 ERA in three career starts against the Diamondbacks.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings on March 31st in his lone start against them in 2019. 

Arizona is a very profitable 36-27 (+17.2 units) as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Ray’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 5-0 in Ray’s last five starts during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* Warriors/Raptors Game 2 No-Brainer on Toronto -2 

The Toronto Raptors have now won five straight games over the Bucks and Warriors.  This team is proving they are for real and a legit threat to stop Golden State’s three-peat.  They know getting Game 2 here is a must with Kevin Durant likely coming back soon. 

The Warriors are vulnerable without KD despite all the numbers they have shown about their record with Curry and without Durant.  That was evident last series when they had to come back from 15-plus points down in three straight games against the Blazers.  Well, the Raptors are much better than the Blazers. 

Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games.  The Raptors are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toronto is now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in all three meetings with the Warriors this season.  Bet the Raptors Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A’s +129 

The Oakland A’s will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday at home against the Houston Astros.  They have lost the first two games of this series to their AL West rivals and don’t want to get swept.  Look for them to salvage this series with a Game 3 victory. 

Chris Bassitt is having a fine season for the A’s.  He is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Bassitt has never lost to the Astros, going 1-0 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

Gerrit Cole has certainly been hittable this year at 5-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts.  And Cole has allowed 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against the A’s. 

The Astros are 0-4 in their last four during Game 3 of a series.  The A’s are 40-17 in their last 57 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Oakland is 8-3 in Bassitt’s last 11 starts overall.  Take the A’s Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -133 

The St. Louis Cardinals won 2-1 in Game 1 of this series last night in extras.  They really need to sweep the Cubs in this series if they are going to gain some ground in the NL Central, and I expect them to win Game 2 today as well. 

No question Jack Flaherty is the most talented starter the Cardinals have to offer.  He is 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in six home starts.  Flaherty has posted a 3.93 ERA in four career starts against Chicago. 

Jose Quintana is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 10 starts for the Cubs this year, but 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA in four road starts.  Quintana has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals for an 8.00 ERA. 

St. Louis is 8-0 in home games vs. excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more HR’s/start this season.  The Cardinals are 17-5 with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  Chicago is 1-4 in its last five trips to St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +108 

After getting swept in Colorado in four games in excruciating fashion with a chance to win all four games in the final innings, the Arizona Diamondbacks return home Friday highly motivated for a win against the New York Mets in Game 1 of this new series tonight. 

I like getting the Diamondbacks as home underdogs here with rookie Jon Dupltantir on the mound.  He is the franchise’s top pitching prospect coming up from Triple-A Reno.  He has pitched five times in relief this year and has posted a 1-0 record and 2.25 ERA over 12 innings. 

Zack Wheeler is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a road favorite tonight.  Wheeler is 4-3 with a 4.63 ERA in 11 starts, 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five road starts, and 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA in his last three starts. 

Arizona is 8-0 after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  It is coming back to win by 4.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 road games.  New York is 0-5 in its last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Mets are 1-4 in Wheeler’s last five road starts.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -122 

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Chicago Cubs and should be larger favorites as a result.  And it’s a Cardinals team highly motivated to chase down the Cubs in the NL Central as they trail them by 4.5 games currently. 

Miles Mikolas was the Opening Day starter for the Cardinals, which shows you the kind of stuff he has.  He is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 11 starts this season, but he has been at his best at home, where he’s 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in six starts.  Mikolas has never lost to the Cubs, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Yu Darvish is one of the most overpaid players in baseball.  The Cubs made a big mistake signing him a few years ago.  Darvish continues to struggle this season, going 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in 11 starts.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings to the Cardinals on May 4th in his only career start against them. 

St. Louis is 7-0 in home games vs. excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more HR’s/game this season.  The Cardinals are 10-2 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  St. Louis is 8-0 in Mikolas’ last eight starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5.  The Cardinals are 10-2 in Mikolas’ last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Warriors/Raptors Game 1 No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

What the Raptors just did to the Bucks in winning four straight was the most impressive feat yet in these playoffs.  The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season, and Nick Nurse and the Raptors came up with the proper game plan to stop them. 

Of course, the feat the Warriors just pulled off against the Blazers was also impressive.  They swept the Blazers in four games, winning each of the final three games despite trailing by at least 15 points in all three.  While impressive, it also shows how vulnerable the Warriors really are.  The Blazers aren’t that good. 

Certainly this is a step up in class for the Warriors, who will still be without Kevin Durant.  And the Raptors proved in the regular season that they could beat the Warriors, sweeping the season series while winning 131-128 at home and 113-93 on the road.  Kawhi Leonard is the best player in this series, period, and the role players for the Raptors are really gaining confidence. 

I think the 5-day layoff for the Raptors is the superior situation than the 10-day layoff for the Warriors, who are sure to be rusty in Game 1.  Toronto is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Raptors are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-112) 

The Cleveland Indians come into this series with the White Sox playing with confidence.  They had a big comeback win in a 7-5 win at Boston on Tuesday, and followed that up with an even more impressive 14-9 win on Wednesday.  They have scored 21 runs in their last two games and are swinging some hot bats. 

Those bats should stay hot against Chicago starter Mannu Banuelos, who has been nothing short of awful this season.  Banuelos is 1-4 with a 9.49 ERA and 2.108 WHIP in six starts.  He is also 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.401 WHIP in two starts against the Indians this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 1/3 innings. 

Carlos Carrasco is 4-5 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  While off his game a little, Carrasco still has 72 K’s in 58 2/3 innings to show that his stuff is still there.  And he loves facing the White Sox, going 7-0 with a 0.87 ERA in his last nine starts against them, allowing just 6 earned runs in 62 innings pitched. 

The Indians are 9-0 in Carrasco’s last nine starts against the White Sox with eight of those victories coming by two runs or more.  Enough said.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line. 

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +122 

It’s safe to say the Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory here Thursday afternoon.  They have lost the first three games of this series to the Rockies despite having a chance to win late in all three.  They want to avoid the four-game sweep by salvaging a victory in Game 4. 

Kyle Freeland is 2-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 11 starts this season for Colorado, including 1-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in five starts at Coors Field.  Freeland faced the Diamondbacks on May 4th earlier this month, yielding 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 12 base runners in 6 innings of a 2-9 loss. 

Taylor Clarke is a nice young talent who is ready for the big leagues.  He is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in two starts this season for the Diamondbacks, both of which have come on the road.  He should get some run support here as the Diamondbacks are just 6-for-28 with runners in scoring position in this series.  That’s poor luck more than anything. 

Arizona is 36-25 (+19.2 units) as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  Take the Diamondbacks Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -115 

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Rockies despite the game being in the balance in the final few innings both times.  I expect them to get in the win column here in Game 3 thanks to their huge edge on the mound. 

Robbie Ray is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 11 starts this season with 76 K’s in 58 innings and only five homers allowed.  Ray will shut down the Rockies today. 

Jeff Hoffman is no more than a fill-in starter for Colorado.  He is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two starts this season.  Worse yet, Hoffman is 0-2 with a 14.03 ERA and 2.398 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona. 

Ray is 17-3 in road games vs. an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Ray is 10-1 in road games in night games over the last two seasons.  Ray is 13-2 as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two years.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Twins -109 

The Minnesota Twins blew a 4-0 lead yesterday and lost 5-4 to the Milwaukee Brewers.  They had 10 hits and left 10 on base, while the Brewers only stranded three runners.  It was a rare loss for the Twins, who are now 11-2 in their last 13 games overall.  They have scored at least 7 runs in nine of their last 12 and are scoring 6.0 runs per game on the season. 

I’ll gladly back the Twins as a short home favorite here Tuesday as they’ll be motivated to split the series with the Brewers and avoid the sweep.  I also like Devin Smeltzer making his big-league debut at home tonight.  He has been excellent in the high minors this season, posting a 1.15 ERA in nine starts between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Rochester.  He is only walking 4.8 percent of batters faced. 

Zach Davies has put up solid numbers as well this season, but his stuff isn’t that good as he has just 38 K’s in 55 2/3 innings.  And Davies was rocked for 6 earned runs in 3 innings last time out by the Reds. 

Minnesota is 25-6 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, including 14-2 as a favorite of -100 to -150.  The Brewers are 1-6 in their last seven interleague road games.  The Twins are 42-17 in their last 59 games overall.  Bet the Twins Tuesday. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks +103 

The Arizona Diamondbacks really got their bats going over the weekend.  They swept the Giants in three games while outscoring them 34-8 in the process.  Look for their bats to stay hot against Jon Gray and the Rockies today at hitter-friendly Coors Field. 

Zack Greinke is 12-6 with a 3.78 ERA in his career against the Rockies, including 5-1 in 12 starts at Coors Field. Greinke is having another superb season, going 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 11 starts.  Greinke is 5-1 with a 1.63 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing just 10 earned runs in 55 1/3 innings. 

Jon Gray is 4-4 with a 4.62 ERA in 10 starts for the Rockies this season, including 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in his last three starts.  Gray is 2-4 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in eight career starts against Arizona as well. 

Arizona is 11-3 on the road with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Diamondbacks are 10-2 after playing five or more consecutive road games this season.  Arizona is 8-2 in its last 10 during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -113 

I’ll back the Diamondbacks again today to sweep the San Francisco Giants.  I cashed them in in their first two games of this series, and they are obviously swinging some hot bats as they have outscored the Giants 28-6 in those two games. 

Luke Weaver is a very talented young starter who has performed well this season.  He is 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in five road starts.  Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco. 

Shaun Anderson makes just his third start of the season for the Giants today.  He is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in two starts.  He has spent his entire career in the minors with mixed results prior to this season. 

Arizona is 7-0 after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  The Giants are 14-37 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 8-24 in its lsat 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Giants are 3-9 in their last 12 after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2 

The Milwaukee Bucks were the best team in the NBA all season.  I’ll back them to get it figured out in Game 6 and get this series back to Milwaukee.  The Raptors simply are not this good, getting the breaks late in wins in Game 3 and Game 5. 

Officiating certainly went the Raptors’ way in Game 5 as they attempted 31 free throws compared to 18 for the Bucks despite the fact that the game was played in Milwaukee.  And Fred VanVleet hit 7 3-pointers, which was the difference and is unlikely to happen again. 

The Bucks are 31-16 SU & 28-17-2 ATS on the road this season, so they clearly aren’t phased by traveling.  And they lost in double-OT in Toronto in Game 3.  Not to mention, they won both regular season meetings in Toronto. 

Milwaukee is 16-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Bucks are 22-3 SU & 19-6 ATS off a loss this season.  Milwaukee is 37-16-2 ATS in its last 55 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Bucks Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +109 

The Arizona Diamondbacks hung 18 runs on the San Francisco Giants yesterday.  That’s not an easy thing to do in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.  I expect them to stay hot at the plate today and win this game as enticing underdogs over the Giants. 

Taylor Clarke is a great young talent that is ready for the big leagues.  He made one start this season and gave up just two earned runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay for a 3.00 ERA.  This is a much easier task here for Clarke in his second start against the light-hitting Giants, who score just 3.1 runs per game at home this year. 

We’ll gladly fade Andrew Suarez, who will also be making his second start of the season after giving up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA against the Braves on May 20th.  Suarez is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in three career starts against the Diamondbacks. 

Arizona is 11-3 in road games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last three seasons.  San Francisco is 15-36 in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 1-5 in Suarez’s last six starts.  San Francisco is 0-5 in Suarez’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Diamondbacks Saturday.  

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks -120 

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory after losing five straight to fall back to .500 on the season.  They had yesterday off, so they’ll be rested while the Giants just concluded a four-game series with the Atlanta Braves Thursday. 

Robbie Ray is clearly the better starter in this matchup.  He is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts this season with 67 K’s in 52 2/3 innings.  He has been really sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in his last three starts.  Ray is 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 12 career starts against San Francisco as well. 

Drew Pomeranz is 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Giants.  He has been terrible of late, going 0-2 with a 10.44 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in his last three starts.  Pomeranz has never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.962 WHIP in six career starts against them. 

Ray is 16-3 in road games vs. an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Ray is 9-1 in road games in night games over the last two years.  The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last six games following an off day.  Arizona is 5-0 in Ray’s last five Friday starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. 

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 

After losing both games in Toronto, and getting embarrassed in Game 4, the Milwaukee Bucks return home highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 to regain control of this series.  The Bucks are still 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in these playoffs and the best team in the East, and that will show tonight. 

Milwaukee has been a great bet off a loss.  In fact, the Bucks are 22-2 SU & 19-5 ATS following a loss this season.  That’s right, they’ve only lost back-to-back games twice all season, and it just happened for the second time.  It’s been a resilient team, and that resiliency will really be on display tonight with the support of their home crowd on their side. 

Kawhi Leonard is clearly hobbled and tired.  The Bucks made the mistake of double-teaming him last game, and he found open shooters time and time again.  The Raptors’ roll players hit those shots at home, but now it will be the Bucks’ role players who step up at home this time around.  And I expect Mike Budenholzer to make the right adjustments like he’s done all season and to not double-team Kawhi.  He can’t beat them on his own. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite this season.  The Bucks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games off a loss.  Milwaukee is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in the playoffs this season.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -135 

The Minnesota Twins have won seven of their last eight overall to improve to 32-16 on the season.  They have the second-best record in baseball behind the Astros, and I believe they are the real deal.  I think we’re getting a big discount on them today considering the massive edge they have on the mound over the Angels. 

Martin Perez has found a new home in Minnesota.  He is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three home starts.  The Angels are only hitting .228 and scoring 3.4 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season. 

Matt Harvey is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has been broken since getting injured with the Mets.  Harvey is 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in four home starts. 

Minnesota is 15-1 in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 9-0 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  The Angels are 0-6 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 0-6 in its last six after losing the first two games of a series.  These four trends combine for a 36-1 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Twins Thursday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota Twins +107 

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They sit at 31-16 on the year after going 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  And now we’re getting them as underdogs here again tonight. 

Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill have both struggled, but Pineda has been better at 3-3 with a 5.55 ERA in nine starts, including 2-1 with a 4.84 ERA in four road starts.  Cahill is 2-4 with a 6.96 ERA in nine starts, including 1-2 with a 9.22 ERA in his last three. 

The Twins have a big advantage here having just faced Cahill on May 15th, rocking him for 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.  Pineda hasn’t faced the Angels since 2017.  And Pineda likely won’t have to face Los Angeles’ No. 3 and No. 4 hitters in Ohtani (hand) and Simmons (ankle), who were both hurt last night. 

Minnesota is 11-1 in road games vs. an AL team that hits .255 or worse this season.  The Twins are 14-2 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Angels are 17-36 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Twins Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3 

The Milwaukee Bucks played about as poorly as they could have in Game 3.  Yet, they still forced double-overtime despite shooting just 37.3% from the field.  It was a must-win game for the Raptors in that spot, and they were fortunate to escape with a victory. 

They won’t be so fortunate in Game 4 tonight.  The Bucks aren’t going to shoot that poorly again as this has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this season at 117.9 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  They are loaded with great 3-point shooting to surround the unstoppable Greek Freak. 

Milwaukee is a ridiculous 22-1 SU & 19-4 ATS following a loss this season.  It is coming back to win by 15.0 points per game in this spot.  The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  They have been the most resilient team in the NBA this season.  Milwaukee is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -124 

The Texas Rangers have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall and now have a shot to get back to .500 on the season with another win Tuesday.  They are red hot at the plate right now scoring a combined 46 runs during this six-game stretch. 

The Seattle Mariners got off to a blistering 13-2 start, but they are just 10-25 since to fall to 23-27 on the season.  Tom Milone will be making his first start of the season for Seattle.  He is 3-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 10 career starts against Texas. 

Lance Lynn is 5-3 with a 4.94 ERA in nine starts for the Texas this season.  He has given up just 4 earned runs in 14 innings in his last two starts as he continues to get better.  And Lynn is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle. 

The Mariners are 1-14 vs. a starter who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.  Seattle is 2-12 in its last 14 road games.  The Rangers are 5-1 in their last six home games.  Take the Rangers Tuesday. 

20* Warriors/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland +3.5 

The Golden State Warriors just became the first team in NBA history to win consecutive playoff games after trailing by 13 or more points.  It shows their resiliency, but it also shows how the Blazers could easily be up 2-1 in this series instead of down 0-3. 

From a line value perspective, there’s certainly value taking the Blazers in Game 4 here as 3.5-point underdogs when you consider they were 2.5-point favorites in Game 3.  That’s a 6-point adjustment.  I think the Blazers will show some pride here and not want to get swept. 

The Warriors are already without Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins, and now they could be without Andre Iguodala, who left with a calf injury in Game 3.  He is their best defender and the Blazers should have a lot more success offensively if he can’t go. 

Golden State is 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Portland is 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Golden State is 19-42-2 ATS in its last 63 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Blazers Monday. 

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +123 

The Philadelphia Phillies are playing well after swiping the Rockies over the weekend.  And I like the angle here of Jake Arrieta facing his former team for the first time since signing with Philadelphia after the Cubs didn’t want to pay him. 

Arrieta has been solid this season at 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA in nine starts.  He is 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA in three road starts.  He is clearly the better starter in this matchup, and he shouldn’t be a dog here.  And he may not have to face Javier Baez, who suffered an ankle injury Sunday and is questionable. 

Yu Darvish has been awful since the Cubs signed him.  He is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.691 WHIP in four home starts.  I also like fading the Cubs off a huge ESPN Sunday Night Baseball win over the Nationals last night.  Take the Phillies Monday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -2 

It’s now or never for the Toronto Raptors.  They must win Game 3 if they want to get back in this series after losing the first two, and I trust them to get the job done. 

The Raptors are 37-11 at home this season.  Milwaukee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three or more consecutive home wins.  Toronto is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five ATS over the last three years.  Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -150 

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of four overall.  And now they have their ace on the mound Sunday in Jack Flaherty. 

Flaherty is underrated because he has bad numbers thus far.  He is 4-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in nine starts.  He’ll be opposed by Drew Smyly, who is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 in five starts. 

The Rangers are 1-4 in Smyly’s last 5 starts.  Texas is 1-4 in its last five games following a loss.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (-105) 

The New York Mets are so motivated today to beat the Miami Marlins.  Noah Synderaard is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his last three starts and pitching like the ace he is.  Syndergaard is 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in eight career starts against Miami, having never lost to them. 

Sandy Alcantara is 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA in four career starts against the Mets. 

Miami is 11-31 as a dog of +100 or higher this season.  New York is 3-13 in their 16 road games.  The Marlins are 1-5 in Alcantara’s last six starts.  Miami is 8-21 in its last 29 games following a win.  Bet the Mets Sunday. 

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers know they can beat the Warriors. They proved it in the regular season by splitting the season series 2-2.  And they certainly gave them a run for their money in Games 1 and 2 in Golden State. 

Indeed, the Blazers were tired off their seven-game series with the Nuggets, yet they were only down by 6 points at the end of three quarters despite playing their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1.  They played much better in Game 2 and actually led by 17 in the 3rd quarter, but the Warriors came back and stole a victory late. 

Now, with their season on the line, the Blazers should be able to win Game 3 at home.  The Warriors are likely to relax after protecting their home court, while the Blazers are likely to play with a big chip on their shoulder here after letting Game 2 slip away.  This is my favorite bet of the conference finals. 

The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games off a win.  The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -114 

We’re getting the Atlanta Braves at a great value at home here tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers.  Kevin Gausman dominated in the second half last year after being traded to the Braves, and he has been solid thus far in 2019 as well. 

Indeed, Gausman is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in four home starts.  Gausman is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in one career start against Milwaukee as well. 

Chase Anderson has been hurt all year and cannot be trusted to go deep into this game.  He is averaging just 4.8 innings per start in his two starts this year.  Anderson has posted a 4.84 ERA in four career starts against Atlanta as well. 

The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  Atlanta is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  They called up Austin Riley recently and the fans have gone nuts.  It has also injected life into their lineup as the Braves have scored 26 runs while winning three in a row.  Roll with the Braves Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -114 

The New York Mets come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight, including Game 1 of this series to the Marlins.  They lost as -210 favorites yesterday, but today we are getting them at a much more reasonable price of -114. 

Steven Matz has been underrated his entire career in the big leagues.  He has performed well in 2019 as well, going 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in seen starts, including 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three.  Matz is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts vs. Miami as well. 

Pablo Lopez is 2-5 with a 5.93 ERA in eight starts for the Marlins, including 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts.  Lopez is 1-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.111 WHIP in two career starts against New York as well. 

Matz is 8-0 vs. teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons.  Matz is also 8-0 vs. NL teams that score 4 or fewer runs per game over the last two years.  Miami is 2-18 after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season.  The Marlins are 0-9 in Lopez’s last nine starts vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Mets Saturday. 

15* Raptors/Bucks TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216 

The pace was a rapid one in Game 1 as the Raptors got 92 shots up and the Bucks got 93 up.  Yet, they still went UNDER the 218-point total as the Bucks won 108-100 for 208 combined points.  I have to think the pace slows down quite a bit in Game 2 now that these teams are more familiar with one another, and as a result I like it to stay UNDER the total again. 

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Raptors last nine road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bucks last five games off a win.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 2 Friday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-110) 

The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball at 10-31 this season.  They have the worst run differential (-2.3 RPG) in baseball as well.  Not to mention, the Marlins are 2-14 in their last 16 games overall with 12 of those losses coming by two runs or more. 

It doesn’t get any easier for the Marlins today as they’ll be up against NL Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom.  He has been pitching like a Cy Young of late, going 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts.  DeGrom has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-2 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four starts.  He is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Marlins this season, allowing just one earned run in 14 innings with 22 K’s. 

Trevor Richards is still in search of his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He is 0-5 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in eight starts, including 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in his last three.  Richards has never beaten the Mets, going 0-2 (0-3 money line) with a 3.57 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Miami is 0-10 when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  It is losing by 5.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  New York is 10-1 off a one-run loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Richards’ last five road starts.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Mets.  Also, New York is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Mets on the Run Line. 

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -155 

The Cleveland Indians should be much bigger favorites over the Baltimore Orioles.  This is a tired Orioles team that will now be playing their 4th game in 3 days after losing both games of a double-header to the Yankees on Wednesday.  They proceeded to get blasted 14-7 by the Indians yesterday. 

This is another case of Cleveland starter Jefry Rodriquez not getting the respect he deserves.  He is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in four starts this season, including 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two home starts. 

Dylan Bundy is 1-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in eight starts for the Orioles, including 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in three road starts.  He has already allowed 11 homers in 40 2/3 innings this season. 

Bundy is 2-15 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game over the last two seasons.  Bundy is 3-21 in night games over the last two years.  Baltimore is 4-21 after a game where its bullpen blew a save over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 1-9 in Bundy’s last 10 road starts.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven vs. AL East opponents.  Cleveland is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Indians Friday. 

15* Blazers/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +7.5 

The 22-point blowout the Warriors put on the Blazers was a bit misleading.  This was a 6-point game at the end of three quarters.  Portland managed to hang around despite committing 21 turnovers and shooting just 36.1% from the field. 

So, the Blazers couldn’t have played any worse in Game 1, and they still had a chance to pull the upset going into the 4th quarter.  And they were in a tough spot off a difficult Game 7 win in Denver.  Now a few more days removed, and they should come back much fresher for Game 2 tonight.  Expect the Blazers to give the Warriors a run for their money. 

Golden State has shot 49.4% and 50% from eh field in its last two games.  Both of those were without Kevin Durant.  The Warriors aren’t a better team without Durant, and they certainly will be hard-pressed to continue shooting as well as they did in their last two games against Houston and Portland. 

Portland is 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  It is bouncing back to win by 8.3 points per game in this situation.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS win.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-140) 

The Cleveland Indians had yesterday off following their 9-0 win over the White Sox on Tuesday.  They will be fresh and ready to go.  The Orioles just played a double-header yesterday against the Yankees and lost both games by two runs.  They won’t have much left in the tank today, and their bullpen will be depleted. 

Trevor Bauer should mow down this Baltimore lineup.  Bauer is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in nine starts this season with 72 K’s in 59 2/3 innings. 

Daniel Straily is 1-3 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has really been hit hard in his last two starts, going 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA while allowing 11 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in losses to the Angels and Rays. 

The Orioles are 9-42 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series.  Baltimore is 0-4 in Straily’s last four starts.  Cleveland is 6-0 in its last six vs. AL East opponents.  The Indians are 10-1 in Bauer’s last 11 Thursday starts.  Cleveland is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* Raptors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -6 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA all season.  And as a result, they’ve been the best team for bettors to back, too.  They are currently 68-23 SU & 55-33 ATS this season.  They’ve been even better in the playoffs, going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS for backers with seven wins by double-digits. 

The Bucks went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Raptors in the regular season.  They are in the favorable spot here having a full week off after closing their series with the Celtics last Wednesday.  The spot is a much tougher one for the Raptors. 

Indeed, Toronto just completed a grueling seven-game series with the 76ers on Sunday.  We saw how much the seven-game series took out of the Blazers last night, and I think it will be the same for the Raptors.  I think they relax in Game 1 here after surviving the 76ers, and they will simply still be too tired to match the energy and effort the Bucks put into this game. 

Toronto is 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 90 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100) 

The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball at 10-30 on the season.  They have the worst run differential (-2.4 RPG) as well.  Miami is also 1-9 in its last 10 games overall with eight of those losses coming by two runs or more.  I’ll gladly back the Rays on the Run Line at basically even money today. 

Ryan Stanek has posted a 1.72 ERA and 0.702 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in nine of his 10 starts.  And the Rays have gone 7-3 in those 10 starts this season. 

I’ll gladly fade Jose Urena, who is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in five home starts. 

Urena is 0-13 vs. teams who outscore their opponents by one or more runs per game over the last three seasons.  The Marlins are losing by 3.0 runs per game on average in this spot.  Miami is 3-18 as a dog of +125 to +175 this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -105 

We’re getting the Philadelphia Phillies at a great value at home tonight as only -105 favorites against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Phillies will be looking to bounce back from a 6-1 loss to the Brewers yesterday.  The Phillies are 15-8 at home this season and scoring 5.6 runs per game, while the Brewers are just 9-11 on the road and scoring 4.1 runs per game. 

Jake Arrieta continues to be a solid starter for the Phillies.  He is 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in five home starts.  Arrieta is 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 17 career starts against Milwaukee as well. 

Gio Gonzalez is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what he’s done in limited action this season.  He is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts this season, but he’s only averaging 5.3 innings per start.  Gonzalez has lost his last two starts against the Phillies while giving up 9 earned runs in 10 innings for an 8.10 ERA. 

Gonzalez is 1-9 in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  Gonzalez is 2-10 in road games in night games over the last two seasons.  The Phillies are 11-1 in their last 12 during Game 3 of a series.  Philadelphia is 26-10 in its last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Phillies Wednesday. 

15* Blazers/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +7.5 

The Warriors are ripe for the picking with Kevin Durant likely to miss the first two games of this series.  Yes, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson caught fire against the Rockets in Game 6 last series to steal a victory, but they can’t be expected to stay that hot. 

The fact of the matter is the Warriors are short-handed.  They already lacked a bench before losing both DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant.  The Blazers won’t take them lightly like the Rockets did, and this is a Blazers team with something special going right now. 

Indeed, the Blazers upset both the Thunder and the Nuggets as underdogs in their series.  Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are showing why they are one of the best guard tandems in the NBA.  And the Blazers are getting significant contributions from most of their role players like Seth Curry, Zach Collins, Enes Kanter, Al-Farouq Aminu, Rodney Hood and Maurice Harkless. 

The Blazers split the season series with the Warriors 2-2, including a 110-109 upset at Golden State as 9-point dogs.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  The Warriors are 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -124 

The Minnesota Twins have lost two straight coming in, so they’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially after losing Game 1 of this series to the Angels.  This is still one of the best teams in baseball at 25-15 on the season. 

The Angels will be going with an opener in Cam Bedrosian, so they will be using their bullpen for this entire game.  He has made two starts this season, both lasting just one inning and both resulting in losses to the Royals and Yankees. 

Kyle Gibson has been solid for the Twins, going 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in seven starts, including 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in two home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Gibson has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts against the Angels. 

The Twins are 4-1 in Gibson’s last five starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-40 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or better over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-37 in its last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.  Minnesota is 8-2 in Gibson’s last 10 starts.  Minnesota is 43-20 in its last 63 home games.  Roll with the Twins Tuesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115) 

The Boston Red Sox have really turned it around after a slow start.  They have now won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall.  Seven of those eight wins came by 3 runs or more, which is why I’m taking them on the Run Line here today. 

Speaking of turning it around, Chris Sale has done just that after losing his first five starts.  He has gone 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 14 base runners with a whopping 32 K’s in 21 innings. 

Kyle Freeland is no match for Sale.  Freeland is 2-5 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Rockies.  He has been battered in his last three starts, going 0-2 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 17 innings. 

Boston is 39-12 after scoring 8 runs or move over the last two seasons, coming back to win by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 7-19 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Red Sox are 42-12 in their last 54 interleague games.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -129 

We’re getting the Tampa Bay Rays at an excellent value here against the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins.  It’s a Marlins team that is just 10-29 on the season and with the worst run differential (-2.3 RPG) in baseball.  Getting the Rays as only -129 favorites is definitely a discount. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how good Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton has been.  Indeed, he is 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in four road starts. 

The reason the Marlins are getting so much respect here is because of starter Caleb Smith, who is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in seven starts this season.  While impressive, it’s a Marlins team that is scoring only 2.7 runs per game, so he is unlikely to get much run support here.  And Smith is 0-0 with a 5.41 ERA and 1.802 WHIP in his lone career starts against Tampa Bay. 

Miami is 3-17 as a dog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Marlins are 0-11 after three or more consecutive road games this season.  The Ryas are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Morton’s last four road starts.  Take the Rays Tuesday. 

20* Brewers/Phillies ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -142 

The Philadelphia Phillies have won four of their last five while scoring at least 5 runs in all four victories.  They have a vastly improved offense this season that is scoring 5.2 runs per game on the season, and 5.7 runs per game at home. 

After surprising slow start, ace Aaron Nola has turned it around quickly.  He is 1-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has never lost to the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five career starts against them. 

Freddy Peralta has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in five starts for the Brewers, including 0-1 with a 13.51 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 16 earned runs, 31 base runners and 6 homers in 10 2/3 innings. 

Nola is 15-2 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer baserunners per game over the last two seasons.  Nola is 18-3 at home when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last three years.  Philadelphia is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Phillies Monday. 

15* 76ers/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -6 

The Philadelphia 76ers just can’t be trusted to go on the road and win a big Game 7 like this.  They only have one player you can trust, and that’s Jimmy Butler.  Joel Embiid has been held in check this series by Marc Gasol, Ben Simmons has only had one good game, and Tobias Harris hasn’t been much of a factor. 

The Raptors did lose once at home to the 76ers in Game 2, but they blew them out by 13 and 36 points in the other two meetings in Toronto.  The Raptors are now 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the 76ers.  They have covered six of their last seven at home against Philadelphia. 

Home teams are 105-28 (79%) at home in Game 7’s all-time.  Toronto is 16-3 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following. Loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Raptors Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants -103

After losing three straight games, including their first two games in this series to the Reds, the Giants will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and get a victory in Game 3.  They turn to ace Madison Bumgarner to get the job done this afternoon. 

Bumgarner has been solid this season at 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in eight starts with 51 K’s in 49 2/3 innings.  So it’s clear his stuff is still there, and he should be able to handle this weak Cincinnati lineup that hits .197 and scores 3.3 runs per game on the road this season. 

Tyler Mahle is still in search of his first win of the season for the Reds.  He is 0-5 with a 3.69 ERA in seven starts this season, so he has pitched decent but has had some hard luck.  Mahle is 0-5 with a 3.97 ERA in six road starts.  He is also 0-1 with a 10.81 ERA and 2.402 WHIP in one career starts against San Francisco. 

The Reds are 1-11 in Mahle’s last 12 starts, including 0-8 in his last eight road starts.  Cincinnati is 36-75 in its last 111 Sunday games.  The Reds are 22-50 in their last 72 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

20* Blazers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Denver -5.5 

The Denver Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA during the regular season.  They are 39-9 at home, outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game, and I trust them to get the job done here in Game 7 at home by 6-plus points to cover this spread. 

After all, the Nuggets already showed they could handle the pressure of a Game 7 by beating the Spurs at home, and they didn’t even play that well in that game.  I expect them to play more like they did in the pivotal Game 5 when they buried the Blazers 124-98 as identical 5.5-point favorites.  Home teams are 105-28 (79%) at home in Game 7’s all-time. 

Portland is 3-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games aover the last three seasons.  Denver is 14-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Nuggets are 13-5 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Nuggets are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday. 

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -125 

The Colorado Rockies have really come to life offensively.  They have scored 8 or more runs in six of their last eight games overall, including 12 runs in each of their last two games against the Giants and Padres.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight. 

They’ll be up against tJoey Lucchesi, who is 3-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-1 with a 12.37 ERA and 2.375 WHIP In two road starts.  Lucchesi gave up 5 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone start against the Rockies this season on April 15th, which resulted in a 2-5 loss. 

Jon Gray has been solid this season at 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in seven starts, including 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in two home starts.  Gray owns the Padres, going 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He faced the Padres on April 16th and allowed just one run in 7 innings of an 8-2 victory. 

San Diego is 3-18 in road games vs. a starter who gives up one or more HR’s/start over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 1-5 in Lucchesi’s last six road starts.  San Diego is 3-14 in Lucchesi’s last 17 starts vs. NL West opponents.  The Rockies are 11-2 in Gray’s last 13 starts during Game 2 of a series, and 4-0 in his last four starts overall.  Bet the Rockies Saturday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -126 

After losing Game 1 of this series 5-1 to the Royals, look for the Phillies to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 today.  I believe they have the edge on the mound, and they certainly have the edge at the plate and in the bullpen, so this -126 price is a very good value. 

Zach Eflin is 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has been at his best of late, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 16 innings pitched. 

Brad Keller is 2-3 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Royals.  He has been battered of late, going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 30 base runners in 16 2/3 innings. 

The Royals are 24-70 in their last 94 vs. a team with a winning record.  Kansas City is 2-10 in its last 12 interleague home games.  The Royals are 1-5 in Keller’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT On Oakland A’s -155 

Cody Anderson is trying to come back from two Tommy John surgeries and transition back to being a starting pitcher this season.  He last pitched in 2016.  Well, his first start was a disaster last week as he couldn’t get out of the first inning, giving up four runs, two hits and three walks in two-thirds of an inning against the Mariners. 

The A’s will have a big edge on the mound in this one behind Frankie Montas, who is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Montas has been at his best at home, going 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in three starts. 

Cleveland is 2-13 vs. an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.90 or better over the last two seasons.  The A’s are 40-12 in their last 52 vs. AL Central opponents.  Oakland is 44-20 in its last 64 home games.  The A’s are 2-8 in Anderson’s last 10 starts.  He is only expected to go three innings or less tonight, so the A’s will get into Cleveland’s bullpen early.  Roll with the A’s Friday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7 

The Houston Rockets let the Warriors off the hook in Game 5.  I think they let down from the Kevin Durant injury, and James Harden wasn’t his usual self, shooting just one time in the final eight minutes, 30 seconds of the game. 

I think after reflecting on the fact that Durant is out, the Rockets won’t feel bad at all.  Remember, they held a 3-2 series lead over the Warriors last season before Chris Paul went out with a hamstring injury and missed the final two games.  I believe they would have won that series had Paul not gotten hurt. 

Now, the Rockets should win this series because Durant is hurt, and DeMarcus Cousins is already out.  The Warriors don’t have any depth this year, which is why they have had to play their starters such big minutes already.  That certainly could have attributed to the Durant injury.  Now, too much of the scoring load will be placed on Steph Curry and Klay Thompson because the Warriors really don’t have any other scorers. 

Houston is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs this season, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game.  The Rockets are now 36-10 at home this season.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive ATS wins this season.  Bet the Rockets Friday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -126 

The Toronto Blue Jays should be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing five straight and eight of their last nine games overall.  Fortunately, they welcome the lowly Chicago White Sox to town tonight to get back on track. 

And the Blue Jays have a big edge in rest in this one after having yesterday off, while Chicago finished up its four-game series in Cleveland on Thursday.  And Toronto will turn to Daniel Hudson against the White Sox today.  In his only career start against them, Hudson pitched a complete game while allowing just one earned run in a 4-1 victory. 

Dylan Covey will be making just his second start and fourth appearance for the White Sox this season.  He allowed two runs and five hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox while walking three and striking out only two in a 9-2 loss in his only previous start this season. 

Toronto is 26-9 in its last 35 home games after scoring 3 runs or less in four straight games.  The White Sox are 2-16 in Covey’s last 18 road starts.  Chicago is 0-10 in Covey’s last 10 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Toronto is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Take the Blue Jays Friday. 

20* Raptors/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 212.5 

The Toronto Raptors have been absolutely dynamite defensively in the playoffs and down the stretch.  In fact, they have allowed 42% shooting or less in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  As a result, the UNDER is 9-2 in Raptors’ last 11 games overall. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have shot 42% or worse in four of five games in this series.  They have been respectable defensively as the Raptors have had a hard time getting anyone other than Kawhi Leonard going.  And the UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers' last seven games overall. 

The Raptors and 76ers have combined for 203, 183, 211, 197 and 214 points in their five meetings in this series.  That’s an average of 201.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than this 212.5-point total for Game 6 tonight.  I think there continues to be value with the UNDER tonight. 

Philadelphia is 21-4 UNDER when playing four or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Raptors last seven road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in 76ers last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -135 

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory when they open Game 1 of this series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Cardinals have lost six o father last seven games overall, including back-to-back home losses to the Phillies. 

Michael Wacha certainly likes facing the Pirates.  He is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  That includes 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh, giving up just 2 earned runs in 21 innings. 

Joe Musgrove got off to a great start this season, but he has crashed back down to reality now.  Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals, giving up 9 earned runs in 12 innings. 

St. Louis is 10-1 in home games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.  Musgrove is 2-13 as a dog of +100 to +150 in his career.  The Pirates are 1-7 in Musgrove’s last eight road starts.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  St. Louis is 13-4 in its last 17 home games overall.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven starts against the Pirates, including 4-0 in his last four home starts against them.  Take the Cardinals Thursday. 

15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +6.5 

The Houston Rockets are loaded with confidence now after taking two must-win games in Houston to even this series at 2-2.  They know this pivotal Game 5 is where they can really take a stranglehold on this series and get the sweet revenge they’ve been waiting for since blowing a 3-2 lead last year after Chris Paul went down with injury. 

The Rockets have been the more aggressive team in this series, and they’ve done a great job of limiting both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.  They are letting Kevin Durant get his, but the Warriors are much better when the ball is moving and everyone is getting involved.  They are playing a brilliant defensive game thus far. 

Considering all four meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less, I think we are getting some real value here with the Rockets as 6.5-point dogs in a game that will likely go down to the wire again.  The Rockets are now 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their eight meetings with the Warriors this season, and I actually believe they are the better team.  The Rockets have a deep bench, while the Warriors’ bench is the worst its been in a long time. 

Golden State is 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Houston is 30-16 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three years.  The Rockets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a win.  The Warriors are 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Rockets Wednesday. 

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Boston +9 

The Boston Celtics won’t go down without a fight.  That’s the type of team they are, and they have heard in the media that this series is already over from everyone.  I think there’s a ton of value on the motivated Celtics as 9-point dogs in this contest. 

Boston shot 54% in its upset Game 1 victory, which wasn’t sustainable.  However, the Celtics have shot just 39.5%, 43.2% and 37.8% in their three games since, and they are a much better shooting team than that.  Look for them to get closer to the 50% mark in this Game 5 than they have been in their previous three games. 

Boston is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  It is winning outright by 8.0 points per game in this spot.  Milwaukee is 67-112 ATS in its lsat 179 games off three or more consecutive wins.  The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+115) 

After losing the first two games of this series to the White Sox as -245 and -135 favorites, the Cleveland Indians will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 at home tonight.  Look for them to win this game by multiple runs considering the massive edge they have on the mound. 

Shane Bieber has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in six starts this season with 40 K’s in 35 innings.  Bieber has owned the White Sox, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.710 WHIP in two career starts against them, pitching 12 2/3 shutout innings with 17 K’s. 

Reynaldo Lopez is 2-4 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in seven starts this season for the White Sox.  Lopez has never beaten the Indians, going 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

The White Sox are 20-53 in their last 73 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Cleveland is 58-23 in its last 81 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Indians are 24-10 in the last 34 meetings.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver -4.5 

The Denver Nuggets are a resilient bunch.  They trailed 2-1 against San Antonio and went and got a huge road win 117-103.  Then they followed it up with an 18-point victory at home in Game 5 to regain control of the series.  I think we see something similar here against Portland. 

After trailing 2-1 after losing a four-overtime heartbreaker, the Nuggets went into Portland and pulled out a victory in Game 4.  They have all the momentum and confidence now, and I look for them to continue playing very well on their home court. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA during the regular season and are now 38-9 at home this season.  I simply believe they are the deeper, more talented team in this series, and as long as they shoot the ball hallway decent they will win and cover.  They have covered in six of their eight meetings with the Blazers this season. 

Denver is 18-5 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season.  Portland is 3-14 ATS in road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS over the last three seasons.  Plays against road underdogs (Portland) vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland A’s -120 

The Oakland A’s return home highly motivated for a victory today.  They just completed a brutal nine-game road trip in which they went 1-8.  After having Monday off to regroup, I look for them to play well at home here tonight behind Mike Fiers. 

Fiers is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Fiers owns the Reds with a 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  The A’s are 10-6 at home this season and have played much better here than on the road. 

The Reds had to play Monday at home and now have to travel all the way out West to face the A’s.  Tyler Mahle is still looking for his first win of the season as he’s 0-4 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in six starts for the Reds, including 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in five road starts. 

The Reds are 1-10 in Mahle’s last 11 starts, including 0-7 in his last seven road starts.  The A’s are 8-2 in Fiers’ last 10 home starts.  Oakland is 42-19 in its last 61 home games.  Take the A’s Tuesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -116 

The Giants just had to complete their four-game series in Cincinnati on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Rockies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go as they welcome the Giants to Coors Field Tuesday night for Game 1 of this series. 

Antonio Senzatela has pitched well for the Rockies this season, going 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in four starts.  Senzatela has never lost to the Giants, going 5-0 (6-0 money line) with a 3.16 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in six career starts against them. 

Madison Bumgarner is 1-4 with a 3.92 ERA in seven starts for the Giants this season, including 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts.  Bumgarner allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of an 8-9 loss in his last start at Coors Field last season. 

The Giants are 4-21 when the total is 10 or higher over the last three seasons.  Bumgarner is 0-7 in road games in the first half of the season over the last three years.  The Rockies are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Colorado is 39-17 in its last 56 home meetings with San Francisco.  Roll with the Rockies Tuesday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1 

The Rockets will be brimming with confidence after taking down the Warriors in overtime in Game 3 and saving their season.  Now, I look for them to put forth their best performance yet in a series that has been closely-contested thus far with all three games decided by 6 points or less. 

The Rockets are 35-10 at home this season and 4-0 at home in the playoffs, outscoring opponents by an average of 16 points per game.  They certainly got more from their role players at home in Game 3 as they made 18 3-pointers as a team and shot 48.4% from the field. 

The Rockets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Houston is 8-2 ATS in its lsat 10 games following a win.  The Rockets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their seven meetings with the Warriors this season.  Bet the Rockets Monday. 

15* Bucks/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5 

The Boston Celtics are fighting for their lives tonight at home in Game 4.  If they lose this game, the series is overall.  The Celtics will want it more, and the Bucks could easily relax after regaining home-court advantage after an impressive Game 3 victory. 

The Celtics shot 54% in Game 1, which wasn’t sustainable.  But they have shot just 39.5% in Game 2 and 43.2% in Game 3 since.  They are a better shooting team than that, and I look for their offense to be much smoother in Game 4 as more guys get involved. 

It was a rare home playoff loss for the Celtics in Game 3.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in home playoff games over the last two seasons.  Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Bucks.  Take the Celtics Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-126) 

The Chicago White Sox were just swept at home by the Red Sox while getting outscored 30-5 in the process.  They are in store for more misery today on the road against Trevor Bauer and the Chicago White Sox. 

Bauer has been one of the best starters in baseball over the last two seasons.  He is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in two home starts.  Bauer is also 8-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 16 career starts against Chicago. 

It hasn’t worked out for Ivan Nova and the Chicago White Sox.  Nova is still in search of his first win this season, going 0-3 with an 8.33 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in six starts.  Nova is 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.250 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings. 

Chicago is 0-10 after playing seven or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 5.3 runs per game in this spot.  The White Sox are 0-4 in Nova’s last four road starts.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last six after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Cleveland is 4-0 in Bauer’s last four home starts vs. Chicago.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Cleveland.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Monday. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +128 

The San Diego Padres have lost the first two games of this series to the Dodgers.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the sweep, especially after losing by exactly one run in each of their first two games in this series. 

I believe the Padres have the edge on the mound today behind the underrated Nick Margevisius.  He is 2-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in six starts this season.  This will be his first career start against the Dodgers, which is an advantage for him. 

Kenta Maeda is 3-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four road starts.  Made is 5-3 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 career starts against the Padres. 

The Dodgers are 1-7 in Maeda’s last eight road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Padres are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Padres Sunday. 

20* Raptors/76ers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5 

This pivotal Game 4 will be a low-scoring, defensive battle just as the first three games have been.  The UNDER is 3-0 in this series with combined scores of 203, 183 and 211 points.  And now we have a 214.5-point total for Game 4, which is too high. 

That’s especially the case when you consider that the Raptors will be without arguably their second-best player in Pascal Siakam today.  He is the team’s second-leading scorer at 16.9 points per game and he has just gotten better as the season has gone on. 

Philadelphia is 16-4 to the UNDER in its lsat 20 during the 4th game of a playoff series.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Raptors last six road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Raptors last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -135 

The Rockies have lost the first two games of this series to the rival Arizona Diamondbacks.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the sweep. 

The good news for the Rockies is they send ace German Marquez to the mound.  He is 3-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Marquez is also 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks, giving up just 3 earned runs in 14 innings with 22 K’s. 

Zack Greinke is much better at home than he is on the road.  Greinke is 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four road starts this season. 

The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 Sunday games.  The Rockies are 5-0 in Marquez’s last five starts when working on 4 days’ rest.  Colorado is 4-0 in Marquez’s last four starts against the Diamondbacks.  Take the Rockies Sunday. 

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -3 

The Houston Rockets had their chances in both Games 1 and 2 at Golden State.  The officials cost them Game 1 in a 4-point loss, and they got within 3 late in the second half of Game 2 but lost by 6.  They certainly know they can beat this team, and I can’t see them falling down 3-0 and not putting up a fight. 

The Rockets proved they could beat the Warriors by winning three of four regular season meetings with their only loss coming by 2 points.  And now they get the Warriors at home for the first time in this series.  I expect Golden State to relax after taking care of business at home, and for the Rockets to simply want this one more. 

Getting three days off between games was huge for James Harden.  His eye injury got extra time to heal, and he should be near 100% for this one.  Harden still had 29 points in Game 2 with that eye injury, so I’m not concerned about it at all. 

The Warriors are plus-15 in field goal attempts in this series because the Rockets have been terrible in turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds.  They have turned the ball over 31 times and have allowed 26 offensive rebounds with the Warriors regaining possession on 30.2% of their misses.  Look for the Rockets to shore up those two areas, and that will make all the difference here. 

Houston is 8-1 ATS when playing with double revenge this season, coming back to win by 13.6 points per game on average.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They went 3-0 at home against the Jazz last series, outscoring them by a combined 59 points in the three victories.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

FREE Kentucky Derby Picks!

Win: No. 5 Improbable (5/1)

Improbable was undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old.  Since then he lost by a neck in the Rebel Stakes and by a length to Derby favorite Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby.  That effort showed he could go the distance with what was previously the best horse in the field in Omaha Beach.  Now, I believe Improbable is the best horse in the field.

The pedigree is a good one as well.  He is the son of City Zip, a Grade 1-winning sprinter and half brother to 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Horse of the Year Ghostzapper.  It’s also worth mentioning he has the same trainer and owner as Triple Crown winner, Justify.

I like the running style of Improbable.  He likes to stalk the leader and sit no more than one or two lengths behind before making his move around the final turn.  There isn’t going to be a lot of speed in this race, so the stalkers will have the advantage over the closers.  Horses sitting too far off the pace will have no chance.  Improbable has as good a chance as any at winning the Run for the Roses this year.

Place: No. 16 Game Winner (9/2)

Game Winner is basically a nose and a half-length away from being unbeaten with the two losses coming to elite competition.  He lost to Omaha Beach in the Grade II Rebel Stakes by a nose, and we all know that Omaha Beach was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby before getting scratched.

Then, with his ticket already punched into the Kentucky Derby, Game Winner lost to fellow Bob Baffert trainee Roadster by a half-length in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  Well, there’s been talk that Game Winner didn’t give it his all in that race because he didn’t need to.  Roadster needed the win to quality for the Kentucky Derby, so it would make sense that Baffert would have instructed the jockey of Game Winner to let Roadster win.

The pedigree is a good one as well for Game Winner, which is a bay colt by Candy Ride, the sire of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner.  He is also out of Indyan Giving, the daughter of A.P. Indy and champion older mare Fleet Indian. Game Winner can get the distance as Fleet Indians scored in the 1 1/4-mile Personal Ensign (G1) and Delaware H. (G2), and her other stakes wins all came at 1 1/8-miles, the most notorious of which was the Beldame (G1).

Show: No. 8 Tacitus (8/1)

Tacitus won both of his Derby prep races with victories in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade II Wood Memorial.  His victory in the Wood Memorial was made even more impressive by the fact that he was bumped at the start, yet he went on to post the best Brisnet speed figure (103) of any horse in their final prep race.

Tacitus has the perfect racing style to win the Kentucky Derby, too.  He likes to sit mid-pack, just behind the first set of stalkers.  He has drawn the 8th post position, and most horses have had success from the 5-10 spots.  He should get a nice trip and be able to stalk the early leaders.

Juddmonte Farms has captured all of the world’s biggest races except the Kentucky Derby.  In Tacitus, they believe they will capture the Run for the Roses this year.  Dam Close Hatches is a thorough Juddmonte product top and bottom.  Sire First Defence is a near relation to homebred Empire Maker, the runner-up as the Derby favorite that went on to win the Belmont.

Exacta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($2 Exacta Box Costs $24)

Trifecta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($2 Trifecta Box Costs $48)

Superfecta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($1 Superfecta Box Costs $24)

Note: I’m throwing in No. 14 Win Win Win (15/1) in my Trifecta Box as I believe he is the horse with the fourth-best chance to hit the board.  Other horses I consider to have a shot in order are Roadster (5/1), Vekoma (15/1), Maximum Security (8/1) and Code of Honor (12/1).

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -127 

The Colorado Rockies lost 9-10 to the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series at home.  I expect them to come back motivated for a victory in Game 2 and to get a win to even the series. 

Kyle Freeland was one of the most underrated starters in the majors last year.  And while he has a 4.81 ERA this season, he has a more respectable 1.218 WHIP and has been unlucky more than anything.  Freeland is 3-2 with a 3.80 ERA in eight career starts against Arizona. 

Luke Weaver is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after opening 2-1 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in his six starts.  But he has never fared well against the Rockies, going 0-1 with a 15.42 ERA and 3.212 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning in either start. 

The Rockies are 14-2 in Freeland’s last 16 home starts.  The Diamondbacks are 3-10 in their last 13 Saturday games.  Colorado is 9-1 in Freeland’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Rockies Saturday. 

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -124 

I think we are getting the Houston Astros at a great value here as small favorites over the Los Angeles Angels.  This is actually a neutral site matchup in Monterrey, Mexico when a lot of bettors are going to be thinking the Angels are at home. 

The Astros certainly have the edge on the mound behind Wade Miley, who is 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in six starts this season.  Miley has never lost to the Angels, going 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.717 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Trevor Cahill is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in his last three starts.  Cahill is also 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in five career starts against Houston. 

Miley is 12-2 when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an off day.  The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Astros Saturday. 

15* Nuggets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 214.5 

After combining for 234 points in Game 1, the Blazers and Nuggets combined for just 187 in Game 2.  I’m certain that Game 2 was the aberration as the Nuggets shot just 34.7% from the field and missed 32 shots in the paint.  The Blazers only shot 42.4% themselves. 

Still, these teams have combined for 223 or more points in five of their six meetings this season.  So that fact alone shows there’s value on the OVER tonight.  And I like that they only have one day off in between games, giving them less time to make defensive adjustments.  The offenses will win out tonight. 

Portland is 9-0 OVER in its last nine home games vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Blazers are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five road games.  The OVER is 16-4-1 in Blazers last 21 home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* Celtics/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 220 

The Celtics and Bucks combined for just 202 points in Game 1.  But then they exploded for 225 combined points in Game 2 thanks to the Bucks making a ridiculous 20 3-pointers.  That’s not going to happen again.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this pivotal Game 3 tonight. 

The Celtics and Bucks have combined for 208 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  That fact alone shows there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup tonight.  These teams are so familiar with one another after meeting up for a seven-game series in the playoffs last year that points are usually hard to come by. 

The UNDER is 14-2-1 in Celtics last 17 home games following a road trip that lasted seven or more days.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -113 

The Oakland A’s continue a brutal nine-game road trip that has not gone well for them.  They are 0-6 on the trip while getting swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in all six losses. 

Things won’t get any easier for the A’s against Joe Musgrove and the Pirates tonight.  Musgrove is 1-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two home starts.  Musgrove owns the A’s, going 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA and 1.001 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Brett Anderson is 3-2 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six starts this season for Oakland.  He has really struggled in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.615 WHIP.  Anderson has allowed 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates for a 7.71 ERA and 2.429 WHIP. 

Pittsburgh is 10-0 vs. AL teams that allow 4.9 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 1-9 in road games off a loss this season.  The A’s are 1-8 in Anderson’s last nine road starts.  The Pirates are 21-5 in their last 26 interleague games.  Roll with the Pirates Friday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -139 

The Seattle Mariners have come back down to reality by losing 13 of their last 18 games overall.  They aren’t as good as they showed in the first few weeks of the season, but they are still getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers. 

Cleveland is healthy throughout the lineup now, but the rotation has some injuries.  I like starter Shane Bieber, though, who is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in five starts this season.  One of those starts came at Seattle on April 16th as he allowed just one earned run in six innings to get the win in a 4-2 victory. 

Yusei Kikuchi is struggling to adjust in his first season in the majors.  He is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts.  Kikuchi faced the Indians on April 15th, taking the loss while allowing 3 earned runs in 6 innings. 

Seattle is 1-10 vs. a team with a winning record this season, so it has done most of its damage against losing teams.  The Mariners are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 9-4 in Bieber’s last 13 starts.  Take the Indians Friday. 

15* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +143 

The Toronto Blue Jays will be highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 against the Los Angeles Angels after losing the first two games of this series.  And I believe they have the edge on the mound and shouldn’t be this big of underdogs. 

Aaron Sanchez is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in six starts this season for the Blue Jays.  He has given up just 21 hits and two homers in 31 innings.  Sanchez has posted a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the Angels as well. 

Tyler Skaggs is a quality starter, but he is getting too much respect here.  And Skaggs is only averaging 5 innings per start in his four starts this season.  Skaggs is 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA in five career starts against Toronto. 

The Angeles are 7-24 in their last 31 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better.  Toronto is 8-2 after a game where its bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.  The Blue Jays are 16-6 in Sanchez’s last 22 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blue Jays Thursday. 

20* Raptors/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

After shooting 51.9% in a Game 1 blowout victory, the Raptors were upset in Game 2.  That’s because they shot just 36.3% from the field and 27% from 3-point range.  They also let the 76ers shoot 11 more free throws than them. 

I can’t foresee the Raptors shooting that poorly again.  They are the better offensive team in this series, and they are certainly the better defensive team, which has shown.  They have held the 76ers to 39.3% shooting and 39.5% shooting in Games 1 and 2, respectively.  They clearly have Philadelphia figured out.  It took a heroic game from Jimmy Butler to beat them in Game 2. 

Plays on road favorites (Toronto) - a good team that outscores its opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 46-21 (68.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Toronto is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Toronto is 27-12-2 ATS in its lsat 41 trips to Philadelphia, and 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 219 

The OVER is 5-0 in five meetings between the Nuggets and Blazers this season.  They have combined for at least 223 points in all five meetings, and they’ve averaged 228 combined points in those five meetings. 

The Nuggets and Blazers scored their most combined points yet this season in Game 1 with 234 points in a 121-113 victory by Denver.  Neither of these teams are known for their defense, but they are both loaded offensively. 

A big reason why they can’t stop each other is that they don’t have an answer for two star players.  Nikola Jokic is a mismatch, and he had 37 points in Game 1.  Enes Kanter can’t guard him.  Damian Lillard had 39 points in Game 1 and the Blazers can’t defend the pick and roll because Jokic is so slow on his feet.  Basically, both teams can’t defend the pick and roll, and they both run it as much as anyone. 

The OVER is 21-7-2 in Blazers’ last 30 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets’ last eight games when playing on one days’ rest.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.  

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -127 

I love the value with the Indians today as small road favorites over the hapless Miami Marlins.  This is an Indians team that is finally healthy after a slow start to the season and playing good baseball.  The Marlins are just 8-21 on the season and one of the worst teams in the league. 

Corey Kluber is off to a rough start this season, which helps explain why the Indians are such short favorites.  But this guy is too good to be held down for long.  And now he should be able to get right against a Marlins team that hits just .225 and scores 2.8 runs per game this season. 

Caleb Smith is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight because, unlike Kluber, he is off to a great start.  Smith is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in five starts.  While impressive, it’s time to fade him now that he is overvalued. 

Miami is 8-30 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 40-11 in Kluber’s last 51 starts when their opponent allowed 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cleveland is 60-29 in Kluber’s last 89 starts overall.  Miami is 25-58 in its last 83 games overall.  The Marlins are 3-10 in their last 13 home games.  Take the Indians Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +5.5 

Even with the Warriors getting all the calls in Game 1, the Rockets only lost 100-104.  And the Rockets shot just 41.9% in the process compared to 50.7% for Golden State.  That’s a good sign that the Rockets will win Game 2 with a few more things going their way. 

Remember, the Rockets had the Warriors down 3-2 last year in the conference finals before Chris Paul got hurt. They went on to lose the final two games.  I think they would have won that series had Paul not got hurt. 

The Rockets won three out of four meetings with the Warriors during the regular season with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They have clearly shown they are on the Warriors’ level, if not the better team now. 

Houston is 8-0 ATS when playing with double-revenge this season.  It is bouncing back to win by 15.8 points per game in this spot.  The Warriors are 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Golden State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games off a win.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday. 

15* Celtics/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -7 

Everything that could go wrong for the Bucks in Game 1 did.  They shot just 34.8% as a team compared to 54% for Boston.  Don’t expect that kind of discrepancy again.  The Bucks will roll in Game 2 to even this series. 

Remember, the home team went 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS last year when these teams met in the playoffs.  The Bucks are 35-9 at home this season.  They are scoring 119.2 points per game at home and were held to just 90 in Game 1.  That’s nearly 30 points off their season average. 

The Bucks are 18-4 ATS off a loss this season.  They are coming back to win by 14.8 points per game on average in this spot.  Milwaukee is 15-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this year, including 9-1 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

The Cleveland Indians are finally nearly back to fully strength health-wise after missing several key players in their lineup.  But their rotation has been dynamite once again to shoulder the load, and their bullpen has been one of the best in baseball. 

Now the Indians send ace Trevor Bauer to the mound for Game 1 of this series against the lowly Marlins.  Bauer was a Cy Young contender last year and has picked up where he left off, going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in six starts this season. 

Sandy Alcantara is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five starts for the Marlins this season, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.812 WHIP In his last three.  The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball at 8-20 on the season.  They are hitting .227 and scoring 2.8 runs per game as a team. 

Miami is 8-29 vs. teams with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Indians are 7-2 in Bauer’s last nine road starts.  The Marlins are 25-57 in their last 82 games overall.  Miami is 2-7 in Alcantara’s last nine starts.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting a lot of respect from the books now after beating the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games.  Well, the Thunder basically self-destructed and shot less than 41% from the field in three of the five games.  Too many poor jump shots by Russell Westbrook did them in. 

Getting Enes Kanter was huge for the Blazers to help make up for the loss of Jusuf Nurkic.  But now Kanter has a shoulder injury and said it was difficult to even put his jersey on.  It’s a separated shoulder, and I just think that now Jokic is going to dominate in this series, starting with Game 1.  Jokic owned the Blazers in the regular season, too. 

Getting Denver as only a 4-point favorite here is a nice value when you consider they are 37-8 at home this season.  And the Nuggets won three out of four during the regular season.  Their only loss came in their fourth and final meeting in a game that didn’t matter to them.  The Blazers were 8.5-point home favorites in that game, compared to only 2-point home favorites in their first meeting in Portland. 

The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference semifinals games.  The Nuggets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Blazers with their only loss coming in that meaningless game.  Bet the Nuggets Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -136 

The Boston Red Sox are coming off back-to-back home losses to Tampa Bay.  Look for them to be highly motivated for a victory at home here today, especially since they want revenge from losing three out of four in Oakland in their first series this season. 

Eduardo Rodriquez has been dominant at home throughout his career with the Red Sox.  He is at it again this season as he’s 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.631 WHIP In his two home starts this season with 15 K’s in 12 2/3 innings. 

Frankie Montas is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in his two road starts this season, pitching much better at home than on the road.  And Rodriquez is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in five career starts against Oakland. 

Rodriquez is 22-4 vs. teams that strike out 7 or more times per game over the last two seasons.  Rodriquez is 31-9 as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last three years.  The A’s are 0-6 in their last six vs. AL East opponents.  The Red Sox are 20-6 in Rodriquez’s last 26 home starts.  Boston is 21-5 in Rodriquez’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Red Sox Monday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -134 

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing very good baseball right now.  They have won six of their last seven games overall.  They have a much improved offense this season as they are scoring 5.5 runs per game. 

Now the Cardinals send ace Jack Flaherty to the mound today.  He is 2-1 with a 5.25 ERA in five starts this season, but 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three home starts.  Flaherty has allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati. 

St. Louis is 13-1 at home against a starter that gives up 0.5 or more home runs per games over the last two seasons.  Sonny Gray is 1-12 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Reds are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games.  The Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* Celtics/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 224 

I expect a low-scoring Game 1 between the Celtics and Bucks.  These teams are so familiar with one another after playing in a seven-game series in the playoffs last year with the home team winning each game. 

Boston is 19-7 UNDER in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Boston is 11-2 UNDER in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game I the second half of the season over the last two seasons. 

The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -111 

The New York Mets have lost three in a row, including the first two games of this series to the Brewers.  It’s safe to say they will be motivated for a win here Sunday to avoid the sweep. 

Steven Matz has pitched very well for the Mets this season, going 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in five starts.  He is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two home starts. 

Gio Gonzalez will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers today.  He’ll likely be on a pitch count.  Matz is 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee. 

Matz is 13-4 off a team loss over the last two seasons.  The Mets are 24-11 in their last 35 games off a loss.  New York is 6-1 in Matz’s last seven starts. Take the Mets Sunday. 

20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia +6.5 

The Toronto Raptors are 2-14 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a playoff series.  They are notorious slow starters.  They lost to the Magic in Game 1 last series, and Kyle Lowry was held scoreless.  He seems to disappear in Game 1’s and that has been the constant. 

The 76ers are 39-19 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 during Game 1 of a playoff series.  The Raptors are 4-14 ATS off four consecutive wins this season.  Bet the 76ers Saturday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -131 

The New York Mets have lost two in a row, including Game 1 of this series to the Brewers.  I expect them to be highly motivated for a win today to bounce back. 

I’ll gladly back a starter the caliber of Noah Syndergaard at this price at home.  He is off to a slow start this season, but it won’t last.  And Syndergaard has never lost to the Brewers, going 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee. 

Brandon Woodruff is struggling to start the season.  He is 2-1 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in five starts this season 

The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Mets are 9-2 in their last 11 during Game 2 of a series.  New York is 8-2 in Syndergaard’s last 10 home starts.  Roll with the Mets Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -128 

The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the Indians.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3  today. 

Brad Peacock has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the last few seasons.  He is 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in three starts this season. 

Peacock has never lost to the Astros, going 0-0 (2-0 money line) with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has allowed just two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in those two starts.  Take the Astros Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +116 

The Yankees are starting to get too much respect from the books after winning six of their last seven games overall.  They have the longest injury list in MLB, and it will catch up to them sooner rather than later. 

The Giants come in with confidence after winning three straight on the road.  And they come in fresh as they had Thursday off, while the Yankees completed a four-game set in Los Angeles.  That’s a huge rest advantage here. 

Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in five starts this season.  James Paxton is 1-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in two road starts this year.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Giants Friday. 

20* Warriors/Clippers ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 233.5 

It’s Game 6 between the Warriors and Clippers tonight.  These teams are obviously very familiar with each other by now, and points will be hard to come by because of it. 

I think this number has been inflated after these teams combined for 250 points in Game 5 after combining for just 218 points in Game 4.  I think we see a similar output to Game 4 here as there’s no way the Clippers are going to shoot 54.1% again. 

The Warriors are 14-4 UNDER in road games when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 18-8 in Warriors last 26 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -111 

The Houston Astros will bounce back after losing Game 1 of this series by a single run to the Indians.  It’s rare you get the chance to back the Astros as this small of a home favorite, and we’ll take advantage today. 

Colin McHugh is 3-2 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in five starts this season.  He had one bad start last time out that inflated his ERA, otherwise he’s been lights out.  McHugh is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two home starts this season.  McHugh is also 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland. 

Corey Kluber is 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.615 WHIP In five starts this season.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves and Royals.  Kluber gave up 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Houston. 

McHugh is 25-7 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career.  The Indians are 1-4 in Kluber’s last five road starts.  The Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 home games. Houston is 35-16 in McHugh’s last 51 home starts.  Take the Astros Friday. 

20* Nuggets/Spurs TNT No-Brainer on San Antonio -2.5 

The Nuggets managed to end a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio with their victory in Game 4.  They followed that up with an 18-point home victory in Game 5.  I think they are now being overvalued here, and I expect the Spurs to get a victory in this must-win game and keep this series alive. 

This is a very young Nuggets team that hasn’t experienced a close out game outside of Paul Millsap.  They are the toughest games to win, especially since they know they have a home game in their hop pocket in Game 7 if need be.  The Spurs are going to want this game more, and that will show on the court Thursday night. 

As mentioned before, the Spurs are now 14-1 SU in their last 15 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season as well, going 33-10 SU & 25-18 ATS in San Antonio.  This is a very short number for them to be laying given those 14-1 & 33-10 numbers. 

The Spurs are 24-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season, including 13-2 when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105) 

The Boston Red Sox look to even up this series with the Tigers today.  They lost the first two games, but bounced back with an 11-4 victory yesterday.  I fully expect them to win by multiple runs again Thursday, so I’ll take them on the Run Line instead of laying the -200 plus. 

Rick Porcello has turned it around after a terrible start to the season.  This guy is too good to be held down for long.  And Porcello has never lost to the Tigers, going 1-0 (3-0 money line) with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Jordan Zimmerman got off to a great start for Detroit, but he has come back down to reality here of late.  Zimmerman is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA and 1.830 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has posted a 4.45 ERA in five career starts against Boston as well. 

Boston is 22-5 off a win by 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 3-16 after a game with a combined score of 15 run or more over the last two years.  The Red Sox are are 52-24 in their lsat 76 home games.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +8.5 

The Utah Jazz showed what they were capable of against the Rockets in Game 3 and 4 in Salt Lake City.  Nobody in the league can defend the Rockets better than them, and that showed as they held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting in Game 3 and 35.4% in Game 4. 

Now, the Jazz have the belief they can win in Houston and extend this series.  The amazing part is that the Jazz still haven’t shot up to their capabilities once this series.  They shot 39% in Game 1, 39.8% in Game 2, 41.6% in Game 3 and 43% in Game 4.  They haven’t shot better than 31.4% from 3-point range in any game, and going 4-for-26 on open looks cost them Game 4.   

I think their best shooting performance of the series is still to come.  It’s a Jazz team that shoots 46.5% on the season and 35.2% from 3-point range while averaging 111.1 points per game.  Yes, the Rockets are a good defensive team, but they aren’t this good.  Now that they have some confidence after a 16-point victory in Game 4, expect the Jazz to knock down those open shots in Game 5. 

Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-113) 

The Boston Red Sox lost both games of their double-header with the Detroit Tigers yesterday, losing as -205 and -175 favorites.  I have to think they’ll come back highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 Wednesday night. 

Eduardo Rodriquez has dominated at home as a starter for the Red Sox.  In fact, he has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past few seasons.  Rodriquez is also 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in four career starts against Detroit. 

Tyson Ross has bounced around the big leagues due to poor performances.  He is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his two road starts this season, and this will be his toughest task yet up against a potent Red Sox lineup that he has never faced. 

Rodriquez is 21-4 vs. teams who strike out 7 or more times per game over the last two seasons.  Rodriquez is 22-3 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last three seasons, including 18-2 as a home favorite of -150 or more.  The Red Sox are winning by 2.5 runs per game in both situations.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -111 

After losing the first two games of this series to the Diamondbacks, the Pirates should be highly motivated for a victory at home here in Game 3 Wednesday.  They have a big edge on the mound and we are getting them at a nice value here because of it. 

Jordan Lyles has been lights out to open the season for Pittsburgh.  He is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in three starts, allowing just one earned runs in 17 innings pitched with 18 K’s. 

Merrill Kelly is 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four starts for Arizona, including 1-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in his two road starts.  This is a bad Arizona rotation, and Kelly wouldn’t start for most teams in this league. 

Pittsburgh is 18-4 vs. teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 8-1 in their last nine when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 in its last eight after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  The Pirates are 11-4 int heir last 15 games following a loss.  Take the Pirates Wednesday. 

20* Thunder/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +4 

The Portland Trail Blazers are already talking like they’ve won this series.  They have been reflecting back on getting swept the last few years and how much criticism they’ve taken in the media that have fueled them.  These are things you’re supposed to be talking about after the series is over, not before. 

You can bet the Thunder have heard all the interviews and now will be the team playing with a chip on their shoulder.  Russell Westbrook certainly needs quit taking contested jumpers, and he should be wise enough to make the proper adjustments in Game 4.  Look for him to be in attack mode and looking to get to the rim every chance he gets, which is when he’s at his best. 

Keep in mind the Thunder swept the Blazers in the regular season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  So they know they aren’t out of this yet.  Win Game 4 and get this series back to OKC, and it’s a whole new series.  I still believe they are the better team, and with their backs against the wall tonight, I expect their best effort of the season to try and stave off elimination. 

The Thunder have shot worse than 41% from the field in all three of losses in this series.  They are a much better shooting team than that, and the Blazers aren’t as good as they’ve shown defensively.  It’s a Blazers team that gives up 110.1 points per game and 45.5% shooting on the season, and a lot of that was with their best defender in Jusuf Nurkic.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 210.5 

Oddsmakers continue to set the bar too low here for this contest between the Spurs and Nuggets tonight.  This has quickly become an OVER series as both defenses are struggling to stop the opposition. 

Indeed, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three games in this series with combined scores of 219 points in Game 2, 226 points in Game 3 and 220 points in Game 4.  Now the total is set at only 210.5 points in a game that should be pushing 220 easily. 

The Spurs are 9-1 OVER in road games when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.