15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -3.5

The Florida State Seminoles are one of the most talented teams in the country, but the betting public doesn't realize it.  That talent has really started to show through here in recent games as head coach Leonard Hamilton has the Seminoles playing their best ball of the season coming in.

Indeed, the Seminoles have won three of their last five games.  They've beaten NC State by 7 on the road, Virginia by 7 at home, and Boston College by 10 at home.  Their only two losses came on the road at Louisville and at home to Pitt (by 2).  Now they are going to want revenge from a 75-84 road loss at Clemson in their first meeting with the Tigers this season on January 2nd.

Clemson could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  That's because it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  But the Tigers have done most their damage at home.  They are just 1-4 in true road games this season, losing at Minnesota (by 6), at Georgia (by 23), at UNC (by 11) and at Virginia (by 7).  Their only road win came at Syracuse (by 1) back when the Orange didn't have Jim Boeheim on the sidelines.

Clemson is 6-15 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Hamilton is 35-21 ATS revenging a same season loss as the coach of Florida State.  Hamilton is 55-32 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game as the coach of the Seminoles.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* GA Tech/Syracuse ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange have been a completely different team with Jim Boeheim at the helm.  They did not play well during his 9-game suspension, but they have been hitting on all cylinders since he returned.

Indeed, the Orange are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Boston College (by 22) and Notre Dame (by 15) at home, while also topping both Wake Forest (by 28) and Duke (by 2) on the road.  Their only loss came at Virginia (by 8) as 9.5-point road dogs.

Georgia Tech has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers today.  The Yellow Jackets are just 2-4 in true road games this season with their only wins coming at Tulane (by 8) and NC State (by 7).  Their four road losses have come to Georgia (by 14), UNC (by 8), Pitt (by 5) and Notre Dame (by 8).  They have lost three of their last four games overall coming in, including an ugly home loss to Virginia Tech.

Brian Gregory is 21-37 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Georgia Tech.  Gregory is 13-26 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  The Orange continue to roll today at home.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 195.5

The Utah Jazz recently returned their two best players in Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors.  These two are extremely important because of their defense, which has led to some tremendous efforts on that end of the floor of late for the Jazz.

They have held their last three opponents to 86, 95 and 73 points for an average of 84.7 points per game.  They will make life difficult on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, who rank 21st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  This game will be played at a snail's pace considering the Jazz rank last in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game. The Timberwolves are 19th in pace at 97.2 possessions per game.

These teams are known for playing in low-scoring affairs, anyways.  The Jazz and Timberwolves have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings.  They've combined for 174, 188, 188, 190 and 194 points in their last five meetings.  That's an average of 186.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.

Utah is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 11-2 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  Utah is 24-6 to the UNDER vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or less of their attempts over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Knicks UNDER 203.5

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 93-103 loss at Toronto last night.  They will be tired, and they could be short-handed again.  I look for them to be playing this game at a snail's pace because of their fatigue and their lack of players.

Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon all sat out last night against the Raptors, and it's unlikely that all three will return tonight.  Those are three starters that the Knicks just cannot play without and be any good, and they were fortunate to stay within even 10 points of the Raptors last night, who clearly let off the gas in the second half.  The Knicks have scored 93, 88 and 84 points in three of their last four games.

The Phoenix Suns have injuries of their own that have hurt their offensive production.  They are playing without their two best players in starting guards Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe.  Those were the two guys they could not afford to lose this season, and they have been held to 98 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games as a result.

This has been a low-scoring series even when guys have been healthy.  Indeed, the Knicks and Suns have combined for 191, 189, 200, 184 and 196 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings.  That's an average of 192.0 combined points per game, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Pre-All Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are simply desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost seven straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall coming in.  It's safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight, and they should have a lot of energy to give considering they come in on two days' rest.

It's not like the Magic haven't been competitive during their 7-game losing streak, though.  They have just had poor luck in close games as six of the seven were decided by single-digits, including five by 6 points or fewer.  Getting 8 points here is a great value given the situation for the Magic, and it's clearly an inflated line due to this losing streak.

It's the perfect storm as the Celtics come in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The Celtics are also the more tired team right now as they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Asking them to win this game by 9-plus points to beat us is simply asking too much.

The Magic have had the Celtics' number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-91 home victory in their only meeting this season.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Plays on road underdogs (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona State -4.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face the Oregon State Beavers.  The Sun Devils have lost three straight and are 1-6 to open Pac-12 play.

But they have played a tough schedule and have been down on their luck.  All six losses came by 12 points or less, including back-to-back road losses to Cal (70-75) and Stanford (73-75) by a combined six points.  A little home cooking will do them wonders tonight.

Arizona State is 8-3 at home this season.  It will be up against an Oregon State team that is just 2-4 in its last six games overall with both of its wins coming at home over Cal and USC.  The Beavers are 0-2 in Pac-12 road games with a 17-point loss to Colorado and a 6-point loss at Utah.

Arizona State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Oregon State, including a 73-55 dismantling last year.  Oregon State is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 road games.  The Beavers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  Take Arizona State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 196

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies.  These are two offensively-challenged teams who rely on defense and playing at a slow tempo to win games.

The Grizzlies rank 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Bucks rank 19th.  Memphis ranks 27th in the NBA in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Milwaukee is 24th at 96.1 possessions per contest.  This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game given these stats.

The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Bucks and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 189 or fewer points in five straight meetings with combined finals of 179, 185, 189, 159 and 170 points.  That's an average of 176.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a win, and 6-1 in Bucks last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +10.5

The New York Knicks are simply catching too many points tonight against the Toronto Raptors.  Asking the Raptors to win by double-digits tonight to beat us is simply asking too much, so we'll side with the road underdog Knicks in this one.

The Knicks have been undervalued all season, so it's no surprise that they continue to be here.  They have gone 27-20 ATS in all games, including 14-10 ATS in road games.  They are hungry for a win tonight following three consecutive losses, including an overtime loss to Oklahoma City last time out on Tuesday.

The Raptors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  That's because they've gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and the betting public has taken notice, driving this line all the way up to 10.5.  This is the Raptors' 2nd-biggest spread since the start of this winning streak with a previous high of 11.

New York is 13-5 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season.  New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Toronto is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Toronto.  The underdog is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -2

The Syracuse Orange represent my favorite play of the season in the ACC tonight when they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as only 2-point home favorites.  Look for them to roll to victory tonight.

Syracuse has been a completely different team with Jim Boeheim at the helm.  Boeheim was suspended for 9 games earlier this season, but when he's been on the sideline, his team has responded.

The Orange are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The beat Boston College by 22 at home, Wake Forest by 28 on the road, Duke by 2 on the road, and lost to Virginia by 8 on the road as 9.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame comes in overvalued due to also going 4-0 SU in its last four games overall.  But the difference is that the Fighting Irish have played three of their last four at home against soft competition in GA Tech, VA Tech and Boston College.

The Fighting Irish will be without their best player tonight in Demetrius Jackson.  He leads the team in scoring (16.6 ppg) and assists (5.0 apg) and cannot be replaced.  This will be the first game that he has missed this season, and the Irish will be lost without him.

Syracuse is 10-2 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games off a conference win by 20 points or more.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SYRACUSE) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Bet Syracuse Thursday.

15* Mavs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +17

The Golden State Warriors are in a massive letdown spot here tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a dominant 120-90 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. That result has them overvalued here.

The Mavericks were in a letdown spot last night against the Lakers as they were looking ahead to this game.  They managed to win that game 92-90 despite not even showing up.  But that narrow win over a poor team has them undervalued here.  I look for the Mavs to come back with an all-out effort tonight.

The Warriors have only beaten the Mavs by more than this 17-point margin once in the last 14 meetings, making for a 13-1 system backing the Mavs pertaining to this massive spread tonight.  Dallas beat Golden State 114-91 at home in their first and only meeting this season.  Granted, it was without Steph Curry, but it was impressive nonetheless because the Mavs were 3.5-point dogs.

The Mavericks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.  The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.  The Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks -4

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days as they wrap up a 5-game road trip at Atlanta tonight.  They will have nothing left in the tank for this one.

Meanwhile, the Hawks come in well-rested and ready to go.  This will be just their 3rd game in 6 days as they had yesterday off following a 119-105 win at Denver.  Now the Hawks get to return home where they are 15-7 on the season and outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game.

The Hawks have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & and a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point 109-108 in Los Angeles.  Three of their four wins came by 9 points or more.

The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston +1

The Houston Cougars have lost four straight coming in to fall to 13-6 on the season.  They have had road games at SMU and Cincinnati, as well as a home game against UConn during this stretch with their only bad loss coming to South Florida.
 
But they are undervalued due to this recent stretch, and now they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  The Cougars have been dominant at home this season, going 10-2 while outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.

Tulsa is on the opposite end of the spectrum.  It is overvalued right now due to going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games.  But three of those came at home against ECU, UConn and UCF, while two were on the road at Tulane and ECU.

So the Golden Hurricane have simply taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule against the AAC's bottom feeders.  They had lost at home to SMU by 12 and at Cincinnati by 19 to open AAC play.  They'll get a rude awakening tonight against Houston.

The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Houston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.  The Golden Hurricane are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Houston Wednesday.

15* Florida/Vanderbilt ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt -4.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are in desperate need of a win today.  They are just 11-8 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament if they don't start piling up the wins soon.  As a result, look for them to come through with one of their best efforts of the season tonight.

Vanderbilt appeared to turn the corner with three straight blowout wins over Auburn (by 18), Alabama (by 8) and Tennessee (by 14) prior to facing Kentucky on Saturday.  But then it ran into a buzz saw in the Wildcats, who won 57-76 and are playing their best ball of the season.  But that defeat now has the Commodores back to being undervalued.

Florida comes in overvalued due to going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Gators have played extremely well at home, going 9-1, but it has been a different story on the road.  Florida is just 2-4 in true road games this season, while Vanderbilt is 8-2 in home games.  The Commodores are outscoring teams by 19.4 points per game at home this year.

The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, so clearly home-court advantage has been huge.  The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games following a ATS loss.  The Gators are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games following a ATS loss.  Florida is 6-19-2 ATS in its last 27 games following a straight up win.  Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +8

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value tonight as big road underdogs to the Toronto Raptors.  They got blown out of the building last night by the Celtics, so that result has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them.  Now is the time to jump on the Wizards at a great price.

Washington showed some rust after a 4-day layoff yesterday, shooting just 42.7% from the field in the loss to the Celtics.  That's why I'm not concerned that they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, because they had four days off before that game.  They will come back with a much sharper performance tonight.

The Wizards have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS in all road games.  In fact, the Wizards are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, winning at Indiana (by 14), at Chicago (by 14), at Orlando (by 6), at Brooklyn (by 15), while narrowly losing at Toronto (by 3).

Now the Wizards will be playing with triple revenge after losing the first three meetings with the Raptors this season, including that 3-point heartbreaker on the road.  The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Toronto, not once losing by more than 3 points, and pulling off two outright upsets in the process.  The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Raptors.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Washington is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games following two consecutive home games.  Plays against any team (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 49-26 (65.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wizards are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers +1.5

The Indiana Pacers are in desperate need of a win right now.  They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games heading into this game with five of those contests played on the road.  It was a brutal stretch, but now they return home motivated for a victory.

The Pacers should be primed for a big performance because they have had two days' rest since last playing in Sacramento on Saturday.  They return home where they are 13-6 SU & 11-8 ATS on the season, outscoring opponents by nearly 6 points per game.

The Clippers are finally starting to show signs of missing Blake Griffin.  They have lost three of their last five games overall with blowout road losses to Cleveland (by 13) and Toronto (by 18) in the process.  The Pacers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Clippers.

Indiana is 9-1 ATS when playing with two days' rest this season, and 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games on two days' rest.  The Pacers clearly benefit from getting extra time off.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown -3

The Georgetown Hoyas have been one of the most frustrating teams in the country.  They have the talent to beat anyone, and they showed that recently with an 81-72 win at Xavier as 9.5-point underdogs.  But they haven't always lived up to their potential.

Their potential has also seen them suffer narrow road losses at Maryland (by 4), Duke (by 2) and UConn (by 6), as well as a home loss to Villanova (by 5).  But one thing is certain tonight, they will be laying it all on the line to get a victory.

That's because the Hoyas want revenge from a 66-79 loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for the Hoyas in this series as they had gone 4-0 in their previous four meetings with three of those wins coming by 12 points or more.  Creighton is simply overvalued here after winning four of its last five games coming in.

Plays on a home team (GEORGETOWN) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Hoyas are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games following a straight up loss, so they have been extremely resilient in recent seasons.  Bet Georgetown Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones are right back in the thick of the Big 12 title race.  They opened 1-3 in conference play with three tough, close losses, but they have reeled off three straight wins since.

They have beaten both Kansas State and TCU by double-digits on the road, as well as then-No. 1 Oklahoma at home last Monday.  Now they can pull even with the Kansas Jayhawks with another home victory tonight, which I think they'll get.

Hilton Coliseum is easily one of the Top 5 toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones have won 16 of their last 19 home games versus ranked opponents.  They have won three of their last four meetings with the Jayhawks, including an 86-81 home victory last year, and a 70-66 win in the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas has looked extremely vulnerable of late.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with road losses to West Virginia (by 11) and Oklahoma State (by 19), as well as lackluster home wins over TCU (by 7) and Texas (by 9).  But because they are the Jayhawks, they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Kansas is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games coming in.  Iowa State is 25-4 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

I've been riding the New Orleans Pelicans with a ton of success of late.  I'll continue riding them tonight as the odds simply have not caught up to how well they are playing right now.  They should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight.

The Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 9-0 in their last nine games.  Four of their last five victories have come by 12 points or more, so they are dominating the opposition.

Houston is in a tough spot tonight as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  This is a tired team already, and making matters worse is the fact that the Rockets are expected to be without Dwight Howard.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.
 
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  There are a number of factors in favor of the Wizards, not the least of which is the fact that they'll be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep after losing their first three meetings with Boston this year.

The Wizards have been playing well of late.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, which includes blowout road wins over Chicago (by 14) and Indiana (by 14), as well as a blowout home win over Miami (by 19).  One of their two losses was a tough 117-119 home loss to these Celtics on January 16, so they'll be motivated to avenge that defeat just over a week ago.

Washington will be the much more rested team heading in.  Indeed, it has had a whopping four days off in between games, so it will be fresh and ready to go.  Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 7th game in 11 days, so it is running on fumes right now.  Look for the Wizards to win all of the hustle plays tonight.

Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.

20* Cardinals/Panthers NFC Championship No-Brainer on Arizona +3

Admittedly, I have been wrong on the Carolina Panthers all season. I have gone against them most weeks and have been burnt by doing so. But I still believe this team to be overvalued, and I do not believe they are the best team in the NFC. I have been calling the Cardinals the best team in the NFL for months, and I believe that will prove to be the case as they pull off the upset victory as 3-point road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game.

The numbers support my theory that the Cardinals are the best team in the NFL. They ranked 2nd in the league in yardage differential this season, outgaining teams by 86.6 yards per game. They only trailed Seattle (+86.8 yards/game) in that category after losing to the Seahawks in a meaningless Week 17 game while getting outgained by 122 yards. That was the only reason they didn’t finish No. 1 in that category.

Carolina also ranks a solid 5th in yardage differential, but it is only outgaining opponents by 44.0 yards per game on the season. While still solid, the fact of the matter is that the Panthers have been fortunate by scoring so many defensive touchdowns this season. They scored another defensive touchdown against the Seahawks, and they had another interception that set up an easy score. That proved to be the difference in a 31-24 win.

But the Panthers were outgained 295-403 by the Seahawks, or by 108 total yards. They have actually been outgained in three straight games now as they were outgained by 105 yards in a 13-20 loss to the Falcons in Week 16 and by 20 yards in a blowout win over Tampa Bay in Week 17 in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

The Cardinals are the perfect team to take advantage of Carolina’s biggest weakness, which is its secondary. The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (408.3 yards/game) and 2nd in passing offense (288.5 yards/game). The Panthers are without two of their top three cornerbacks in Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They were forced to sign Cortland Finnegan off the couch a few weeks ago.

Carolina’s passing defense has been exposed in its last three games. It gave up 296 passing yards to Atlanta, 309 to Tampa Bay and 325 to Seattle. That’s an average of 310.0 passing yards per game. Now the Panthers will be up against what I believe to be the best passing game in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in big passing plays as they take shots downfield more than anyone. Safety Kurt Coleman is also a liability in coverage, so look for Carson Palmer to target him a bunch. Palmer should have more time to throw the ball now that DE Jared Allen suffered an injury against Seattle and is doubtful to play this week as well.

The top-ranked passing attack in the NFL is the Saints at 310.6 yards per game. Well, the Saints put up 38 points on the Panthers and nearly pulled off the upset, but their league-worst defense couldn’t hold a late lead in a 41-38 loss. The Cardinals have the type of defense that will hold a lead when they get it. They ranked 5th in the NFL in total defense during the regular season at 321.7 yards per game allowed.

The Panthers get a lot of credit for their defense, but this is a stop unit that allows 326 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opposing offenses that only average 343 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Cardinals give up 323 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 361 yards per game and 5.7 per play. So the Panthers are only allowing 17 yards per game and 0.1 per play less than their opponents average, while the Cardinals are allowing 38 yards per game and 0.6 per play less than their opponents average. Everyone knows that the Cardinals have the better offense between these teams, but they also have the better defense when you look at the numbers.

Believe it or not, Arizona has actually played better on the road this season than at home. It is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in road games, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game, and outgaining them by 91.0 yards per game. Its only road loss came at Pittsburgh in a game that it actually outgained the Steelers 469-310, or by 159 yards, and one it never should have lost in the first place.

Arizona is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 games vs. good teams with a winning percentage of better than 75% on the season. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last three seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (ARIZONA) – after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this game with the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  I look for them to continue to roll tonight and to easily cover this 2-point spread.

Toronto has gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall with all six of the wins coming by 6 points or more, including five by 9 points or more.  The Clippers are playing well, too, but they are still without Blake Griffin.  Plus, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days, so it's a tough spot for them.

The Raptors have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Clippers.  They won by 11 points on the road, by 16 at home, and by 12 on the road, so these games haven't even been close.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 meetings with Los Angeles, including 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

20* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

This season just has a special feeling about it for the Broncos. Peyton Manning wants to go out a Super Bowl champ the same way that John Elway did before him, and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if that happens. The Broncos won their final two regular season games to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 3-point home underdogs here.

Manning returned against the Chargers in Week 17 and led four scoring drives in five possessions in the second half after replacing Brock Osweiler. He then played a much better game than his final numbers showed against the Steelers in a 23-16 win in the Divisional Round. He went 21 of 37 for 222 yards without a touchdown or an interception.  The Broncos uncharacteristically dropped a whopping seven passes from Manning, yet they still found a way to win.

The reason was the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL this season came up big once again. They held the high-powered Steelers to just 16 points for the game. The Broncos ranked 1st in total defense (283.1 yards/game), 1st in passing defense (199.6 yards/game), and 3rd in rushing defense (83.6 yards/game) during the regular season. This stop unit is the reason they are a serious contender to win the Super Bowl.

New England has no business being favored with the way it has closed out the season. It went 0-2 in its final two games in Weeks 16 and 17. It lost in overtime to the Jets in a game that was not as close as the final score showed considering the Jets outgained the Patriots by 144 yards. New England also lost 10-20 at Miami in the finale with home-field advantage in the AFC on the line. That game also wasn’t as close as the final score as the Dolphins outgained the Patriots by 242 total yards.

Against the Chiefs, the Patriots were outgained for a third straight game by 38 yards this time. They have now been outgained by an average of 143.3 yards per game in their last three contests. Their defense gave up 378 total yards to a very vanilla Chiefs’ offense. The Patriots suffered two key defensive injuries in that win over the Chiefs, too. Linebacker Jamie Collins had to leave the game with a back injury and is questionable to play this week. Fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo left with a shoulder injury and is questionable this week as well. If both or either can’t go, it would be a huge blow to the Patriots.

Perhaps the biggest reason I like the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs this week is the fact that the home team has dominated this series. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings since 2012. That includes a 30-24 (OT) win at home for the Broncos in their first meeting this season on November 29. That game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos outgained the Patriots 433-301 for the game, or by 132 total yards. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Denver.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Providence/Villanova FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Providence +13

This 13-point spread would indicate that there is a big gap between Providence and Villanova, but I'm not buying it.  I see a ton of value in backing the Friars as massive road underdogs to the Wildcats today.

Providence (16-3) is one of the better teams in the country.  It has been undervalued on the road all season, going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in all games played away from home.  I look for the Friars to travel well again in a crucial Big East game today.

Villanova (17-2) is clearly one of the better teams in the country as well.  In fact, the Wildcats might be the best team in the Big East, but Xavier and Providence are close behind.  But the Wildcats do get respect from oddsmakers, while the Friars and Musketeers do not.

Providence is 11-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Providence Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +17

This play is strictly a fade of St. Mary's in an awful spot.  The Gaels are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-67 home victory over Gonzaga in the come-from-behind variety on Thursday.

Now, the Gaels must get up for a 9-12 Portland team just two days later.  I look for the Gaels to come out very flat in this game, and as a result it will be a much closer contest throughout than it otherwise would be.

Portland has gone on the road and hung with some tough teams this season.  The Pilots only lost 74-85 as 19-point road underdogs to Gonzaga, so they have already proven they can play with the big boys.  They will prove it again here Saturday at St. Mary's.

Portland beat St. Mary's 69-52 in the WCC Tournament last year.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less as well.  The Pilots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above 60%.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Portland Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns UNDER 207

The books have set the bar way too high in this game tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which has been the case in recent meetings between these teams as well.

Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 165, 183 and 197 points.  That's an average of just 181.7 combined points per game, which is more than 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.  All three previous totals were set at 200-plus points as well.

Phoenix is having trouble scoring due to all of its injuries.  It has scored 97 or fewer points in five of its last six games, including just 90.0 points per game in its last three.  The Suns are an absolute mash unit right now, with the key being them missing their two starting guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  But P.J. Tucker, Mirza Teletovic and Markieff Morris are all questionable to play tonight as well.

Atlanta is 11-1 to the UNDER after two straight games where its opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls this season.  Phoenix is 14-4 UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

Despite being just 15-27 on the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are just four games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are doing their best to finish strong prior to the All-Star Break to close the gap.

Indeed, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 12 at Sacramento, by 2 against Charlotte, by 15 over Minnesota and by 16 over Detroit.  Its last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so it is very close to being 8-0 in its last eight games overall.

Now the Pelicans get to host a tired Milwaukee Bucks team that is coming off a 98-102 loss at Houston last night.  Now the Bucks will be playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Pelicans had Friday off following their blowout home win over the Pistons on Thursday.  The rest situation clearly favors the Pelicans.

New Orleans has had Milwaukee's number in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Maryland/Michigan State ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be more motivated for a victory tonight against Maryland than they have been at any other point in the season.  I'll gladly put my money on the Spartans when their backs are against the wall under Tom Izzo.

The Spartans have unfathomably lost three straight games coming in.  Two were 1-point losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, but they have actually lost two of the three at home.  That is unheard of for an Izzo-coached team, and you can bet he has been on his players.  Look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

Maryland has been extremely vulnerable in spite of its 17-2 record.  It needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home last time out.  It also only won by 3 at Wisconsin and lost by 3 at Michigan.  Those three results have all happened in its last four games, where it easily could have gone 1-3 instead of 3-1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who win 80% or more of their games on the season are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1997.

Michigan State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by 6 points or less.  This team has responded very well to close losses, and I look for that to be the case again Saturday night on a big stage against the Terrapins.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -6

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot Saturday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 upset of No. 3 Kansas at home on Tuesday.  They won't show up with the same kind of effort against Kansas State that they played with against the Jayhawks.

Kansas State is a much better team than its 1-5 record within the Big 12 would indicate.  It has lost to West Virginia by 4, Texas by 3, Oklahoma by 10 and Baylor by 7 with three of those losses coming on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in Big 12 play and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they have been vastly underrated.

Kansas State is 8-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.3 points per game.  Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games this year, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game.  That includes road losses at Baylor (by 17) and at West Virginia (by 17) to open Big 12 play.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Wildcats and Cowboys since 2012.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Cowboys.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cowboys are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on TCU +10

The Iowa State Cyclones are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off their first win over a #1 ranked team since 1957 with their 82-77 victory over Oklahoma on Monday.  That fact alone sets them up for a letdown here.

But this is also a lookahead spot for the Cyclones, who will face No. 3 Kansas on Monday.  They will be overlooking TCU here and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks.  As a result, they are going to struggle to win by double-digits, which is what oddsmakers are asking them to do here.

TCU has been competitive in Big 12 play despite its 1-5 record within the conference.  It has an 8-point home loss to West Virginia, a 1-point home win over Texas, a 7-point road loss at Kansas, and a 7-point home loss to Texas Tech. So, it has not lost at home in Big 12 play by more than 8 points in three games this season.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 15+ games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley +30

The Bradley Braves are simply catching too many points tonight against the Wichita State Shockers.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive 30-point underdogs in this contest.

Bradley could not possibly be more undervalued after its 3-17 start to the season.  But this team has been much more competitive in the last couple weeks.  It won 54-53 as 14-point road dogs at Loyola-Illinois on January 13, and in its last contest nearly upset Illinois State in a 52-55 loss as 11-point home dogs on January 20.

Wichita State could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the Shockers' lines higher than they should be as a result, which is evident by this ridiculous 30-point spread.

Wichita State beat Bradley 85-58 on the road in their first meeting this season, so the Shockers won't even show up tonight having already beaten the Braves by 27.  They can not show up and win, but they certainly can't cover this 30-point spread by not showing up with full effort.

Plays against favorites of 20 or more points (WICHITA ST) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Bradley Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are going to be highly motivated for a win after back-to-back road losses to Dallas (in OT) and Toronto (by 6).  They had won three straight prior to those two close losses.

The Chicago Bulls are not playing well at all right now.  They have gone 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, including a 31-point home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday.  They needed overtime to beat the 76ers for one of their two wins during this stretch, and they lost to the Hawks by 15 and Wizards by 14 as well.

The Bulls are just 8-9 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 105.2 points per game away from home.  Boston is 11-10 at home, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game and scoring 103.0 points per game at home.  The home team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.

Boston is 11-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois PK

I have backed Northern Illinois with a lot of success this season, but mostly only when they are at home.  This is one of the most improved teams in college basketball at 15-3 this season, and I believe they are the best team in the MAC, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as a pick 'em against Toledo.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.9 points per game.  It is 3-0 at home in conference play with wins over Ohio (by 11), Eastern Michigan (by 17) and Central Michigan (by 5), covering the spread in all three games as it was no more than a 3-point favorite in any of them.

Northern Illinois has had Toledo's number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings despite being an underdog in all four.  That includes a 71-66 win at Toledo on January 12 as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  There's no way the Huskies should be a pick 'em at home in the rematch.  They should be in the neighborhood of 6.5-point favorites themselves.

The Huskies are 18-3 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last three seasons.  NIU is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 25-8-4 ATS in their last 37 MAC games.  Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.

15* Rhode Island/George Washington A-10 ANNIHILATOR on George Washington -5

The George Washington Colonials are one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 this season.  They are 14-4 on the year and should be much heavier favorites over the Rhode Island Rams (11-7), who are just a middle-of-the-pack team in the conference.

George Washington has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball.  It is 10-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.2 points per game.  It has beaten the likes of Virginia (by 5), Seton Hall (by 8) and Duquesne (by 27) at home this season.  The Colonials are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games overall.

Rhode Island is 1-4 in true road games this season with losses to Nebraska, Old Dominion, St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure with three of those losses coming by 5 points or more.  The Rams' only road victory this season came at Brown (by 3) as 6.5-point favorites, which is far from impressive.

The home team has won three straight in this series.  The Colonials have won their last two home meetings with the Rams by 13 and 8 points.  Rhode Island is 2-13 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to George Washington.  The Colonials are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colonials. Take George Washington Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1

With an 18-23 record on the season, the Sacramento Kings would actually be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today.  They have put themselves in this position with some excellent play over the last few weeks.

Indeed, the Kings are 6-3 in their last nine games overall with a 1-point loss to Dallas and another loss to Golden State.  They are coming off a 3-0 road trip in which they beat the Jazz, Clippers and Lakers.  This is a team that is only going to continue to get better.

While the Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back after topping the Lakers 112-93 last night, they had three days off prior to that game, so they won't be tired.  The same cannot be said for the Hawks, who will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 104-98 win in Portland last night.  The difference is that the Hawks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while this is just the 2nd game in 5 days for Sacramento.

The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Even after their poor 14-27 start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are still well within reach of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are finally playing up to their potential of late and should continue to play well at home tonight against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so they have been very close to putting together a 7-game winning streak.  They opened their 7-game home stand with a 114-99 beat down of Minnesota, and now they'll be playing their second game on this home stand.

They get to face the Detroit Pistons, who are in an awful spot tonight.  Detroit will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a high-scoring affair with the Rockets last night.  The Pistons won that game 123-114, but they were fortunate that Dwight Howard had to leave the game with an injury in the first minute of the game.

The Pelicans have owned the Pistons, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Pelicans are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with the Pistons as well.  They essentially just have to win the game with this 2-point spread, so I thing we're getting them at a great value tonight give the situation for Detroit.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northeastern -3

The Northeastern Huskies are one of my favorite small school teams to follow.  They have beaten some major Division 1 programs through the years, and they have a strong team again this season with four returning starters and a ton of experience.

Northeastern is off to a 12-7 start this season that includes a 78-77 upset win at highly-ranked Miami as 16-point underdogs, as well as a 66-72 loss at NC State as 6.5-point dogs.  Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.

Hofstra is 12-6 this season against a much softer schedule.  Common opponents tell the story for me.  These teams have faced the same five teams this season.  Northeastern is 5-1 against those teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Hofstra is 3-2 against those five teams, outscoring them by only 4.2 points per game.

Northeastern simply owns Hofstra, going a perfect 8-0 SU since 2011 in the least eight meetings with its last seven victories all coming by 5 points or more.  The Huskies are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Pride.

Hofstra is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Northeastern Thursday.

15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Kentucky -2

The Kentucky Wildcats clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past.  But we're actually getting them at a great price tonight because of it, and we'll take advantage and back them as only 2-point road favorites over the Arkansas Razorbacks.

The Wildcats are 13-4 on the season.  They have bounced back with impressive wins every time they've lost this season, which is important because they are coming off a bad loss at Auburn.  Following a loss to UCLA, they beat Eastern Kentucky by 21.  Following a loss to Ohio State, they beat Louisville 75-73.  And following a loss to LSU, they beat Alabama 77-61 on the road.

Arkansas had to break in five new starters this season and is clearly down from its usual self as well.  The Razorbacks are just 9-8 on the season, losing to the likes of Akron, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest and Mercer this season.  But they are being overvalued here because they have won three of their last four coming in, but those victories were against Missouri, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wildcats are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. SEC opponents.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -2

The Wyoming Cowboys are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Nevada Wolf Pack tonight in Mountain West action.  I look for them to roll to victory at home behind one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

Wyoming comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has won three of of those games straight up with home wins over Air Force (by 12) as 5-point favorites and UNLV (by 2) as 5-point underdogs, as well as an impressive road win at New Mexico (by 2) as 10-point dogs.

The Cowboys are 7-2 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 68-71 loss at Nevada as 5.5-point dogs on January 2.  Nevada is just 2-6 in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Pacific and Air Force.  It has lost its last three road games by 29, 12 and 22 points.

Wyoming is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nevada.  The Cowboys are 15-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Wolf Pack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -4

The Washington Wizards are starting to get healthy and will be a dangerous team going forward.  John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Nene are the core of this team, and all four are healthy now.  Look for the Wizards to make a run after a frustrating, injury-plagued first half of the season.

The Wizards have won four of their last six coming in, which includes impressive double-digit road victories over the Magic (by 16), Bulls (by 14) and Pacers (by 14).  But they are back to being undervalued after two straight home losses to the Celtics and Blazers.

The Miami Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 79-91 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That means they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days, which is a very tough spot.  They are without their top two point guards in Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, which makes matters worse.

The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Washington is 14-6 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7

After getting off to a promising 19-13 start this season, the Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to .500 at 20-20.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.

They will have no problem getting back on track against the league's worst team in the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers are 5-38 on the season, but they actually come into this game overvalued due to going 4-0 ATS in their last four games.  The Magic have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, so they come in undervalued as only 7-point favorites.

The Magic have gone 26-6 in their last 32 meetings with the 76ers, including 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings.  Orlando won 105-97 on the road as 3-point favorites in their first and only meeting this season.

Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 2-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +12

The West Virginia Mountaineers are way overvalued tonight as 12-point favorites over the Texas Longhorns.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the Longhorns easily staying within this double-digit spread.

What I love about this play is that Texas head coach Shaka Smart knows how to beat the press as he ran it all those years at Virginia Commonwealth.  So he'll have his team prepared to beat the WVU press, which has been excellent this season.

Texas comes in playing very well.  It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a single point.  It has beaten the likes of Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch.  The Longhorns are 11-6 on the season with their six losses coming by 6, 11, 6, 5, 8 and 1 point.  So, they haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season, making for a 17-0 system backing them.

This is a very tough spot for the Mountaineers.  They are coming off back-to-back games against #3 Kansas and #1 Oklahoma, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following those two huge games against the top two teams int he conference.

Texas is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with West Virginia.  The Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bet Texas Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

Despite their poor 13-27 start, the New Orleans Pelicans are within striking distance of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They certainly are looking at this upcoming 7-game home stand as a chance to get right back in it.

The Pelicans have played the third-toughest schedule in the NBA up to this point.  They have played 23 road games compared to 17 home games.  Now that they are healthy, they are playing much betting.  Each of their last four losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have won two of their last three coming in.

Now they get to take on a Timberwolves team that is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  This is also a Minnesota team that they have dominated, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with wins by 12, 22, 8, 48 and 7 points, respectively.  The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

The Northern Illinois Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are 14-3 on the season while winning seven of their last eight games overall.  Their 7-game winning streak ended with a loss at Western Michigan on Saturday, so they'll be motivated to get back on track tonight.

That shouldn't be a problem against a Central Michigan outfit that continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Chippewas are just 9-8 on the season with losses to the likes of Weber State and Grand Canyon.  They have blowout losses to Western Kentucky (by 28), BYU (by 13), Eastern Michigan (by 19) and Buffalo (by 13) to boot.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.3 points per game.  Bowling Green is just 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  The Falcons are allowing 79.6 points per game on 48% shooting away from home this year.  The Huskies are averaging 81.9 points on 47.7% shooting at home.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings, which includes two blowout wins by NIU by 18 and 25 points over CMU.  CMU's two home wins came by a combined 5 points.  The Huskies are 17-3 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.  The Huskies are 24-8-4 ATS in their last 36 conference games.  Take Northern Illinois Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green +2

The Bowling Green Falcons are the best team in the MAC in my opinion.  They should not be home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets tonight, and we'll gladly take advantage of this tremendous value in a game they should win outright.

The Falcons come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won by 15 at Cleveland State, by 31 at home to Oakland City, by 11 at home to Miami Ohio, by 16 as 10-point road dogs at Ohio, and by 5 as 8.5-point road dogs at Eastern Michigan during this stretch.

The Rockets have opened just 2-2 in conference play with an 18-point road loss at Ball State as 2-point favorites and a 5-point home loss to Northern Illinois as 6.5-point favorites.  They are just 3-3 in true road games this season with losses to Loyola-Illinois, Detroit and Ball State.  Their only three road wins have come against Youngstown State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Miami Ohio.

Bowling Green is 28-14 ATS in all games over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two years.  Toledo is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 83-87 road loss to Oklahoma in their first meeting of the season back on January 2nd.  I look for them to have that revenge behind one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball at Hilton Coliseum tonight.

Getting the Cyclones as only 1.5-point home favorites is a gift from oddsmakers.  They are undervalued right now because they already have three losses in Big 12 play.  But all have been close as they lost by 4 at Oklahoma, in overtime at Texas, and by 5 at home to Baylor for a very rare home loss.

The Cyclones are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  Iowa State is 24-4 ATS in its last 28 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em.  Take Iowa State Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be more motivated for a victory Monday than they have been at any other point this season.  That's because they want revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they not only lost to in the NBA Finals, but also who they lost to on the road on Christmas Day in their first meeting this season.

But the Cavaliers have been a completely different team since they've gotten healthy.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the San Antonio Spurs by a final of 99-95.  That's not a bad loss at all considering the Spurs are 24-0 at home this season.

The Warriors have been leaking oil here of late and have proven to be very beatable.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have lost two of their last three games, both coming on the road to Denver (110-112) and Detroit (95-113).  Now they have to take on a well-rested Cavaliers team that has had two days off in between games.

The Cavs are 15-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game.  Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Cavs are 8-0 ATS after playing four consecutive road games over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Dallas +12

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 23-0 home record on the season.  While they may improve to 24-0, asking them to beat the Mavericks by 12-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much tonight.

The Mavericks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this year.  They are 23-18 SU & 24-17 ATS on the season.  Their starters will essentially be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after resting against the Thunder five days ago, so they will be well-rested and ready to go.

The Mavs have already proven they can hang with the Spurs on the road this season.  They only lost 83-88 as 10-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting this year.  The Spurs are in a letdown spot here, too, after beating the Cavaliers 99-95 on National TV last time out.

Dallas is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 43% shooting or less this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Mavs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in college basketball this season.  They are 13-3 on the year, and they had won five straight prior to a 69-80 road loss at Cincinnati as 10-point dogs last time out.  They'll be motivated to get back in the win column today.

I like their chances of doing just that at home against the UConn Huskies.  Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in lined home games this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game at home this year.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  We've seen Houston pull off the upset at home in each of its last two home meetings with UConn.  The Cougars won 70-68 in 2015 as 8.5-point home dogs and 75-71 in 2013 as 8.5-point home dogs.  History will repeat itself today.

The Huskies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.  UConn is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  UConn is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in over the last two years.  Roll with Houston Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +3

Seattle's performance against the Vikings can pretty much be thrown out the window.  That game was played at freezing temperatures of below zero, and the Seahawks couldn't do anything they wanted to like they normally would.  Russell Wilson's passes kept getting caught up in the wind, so instead of hitting wide open receivers deep down the field for touchdowns, those passes kept falling incomplete.

Look for Wilson to get back to playing at an MVP level this week in much more ideal conditions in Carolina with temperatures expected to be in the 50's with very little wind.  Wilson has now thrown 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions in his last eight games overall.  This is an offense that ranked 4th in the NFL at 378.6 yards per game during the regular season, and one that will hit its stride again this week.

The Seattle defense certainly played well enough against the Vikings to deserve the win last week.  They limited the Vikings to just 183 total yards.  After all, this is a Seattle defense that ranked 2nd in the NFL during the regular season in giving up just 291.8 yards per game, and 1st in scoring defense, currently giving up 16.8 points per game.

Want a stat that's going to blow your mind with this Seattle defense? How about the fact that the Seahawks have only allowed one offensive touchdown in their last six road games combined.  They have allowed 3, 12, 7, 6, 6, and 9 points in their last six road games for an average of only 7.2 points per game.  That's unheard of, and it's also something that I love knowing when backing the Seahawks this week.

There's no question that the Panthers had a great season, and I certainly underestimated them many times throughout the year.  But I also made my fair share betting against them, especially down the stretch when they went 2-3 ATS in their final five games.  I don't think this team is anywhere near as good as their record.  They played in the weak NFC South division, and they got to face both the AFC South and NFC East divisions, which are the two worst in the league.  The only playoff teams they had to face this year were the Texans, Seahawks, Packers and Redskins.

Sure, the Panthers beat the Seahawks earlier this season 27-23 on the road as 7-point underdogs.  But that win was very fluky as the Seahawks couldn't hold on to a 23-14 lead in the 4th quarter.  They allowed two touchdowns over the final 3:55 to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  There's no question that the Seahawks are going to be playing with revenge in mind now, which makes them even more dangerous.

The Seahawks clearly have the type of defense that can slow down MVP candidate Cam Newton and company.  That's precisely what they have done in the previous five meetings with the Panthers before this season.  Indeed, the Seahawks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings with the Panthers.  They held Carolina to 17, 9, 7, 12 and 14 points in the five wins, or an average of 11.8 points per game.

Wilson is also primed for a big day against a Carolina secondary that has turned into a weakness.  The Panthers are without two of their top cornerbacks in Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere.  They were in such dire straights that they had to sign washed-up CB Cortland Finnegan off his couch.  Both Finnegan and safety Kurt Coleman are massive liabilities in coverage, so look for Wilson to target them early and often, and to find a ton of success in doing so.

Seattle is 8-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season.  Plays on road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 68-35 (66%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* Packers/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7

After falling behind 11-0 to the Redskins, the Packers became a completely different team. They went to the hurry-up on offense, and it worked to perfection as they outscored the Redskins 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 victory. Look for them to continue to go to the hurry-up this week and to find success against the Cardinals with it, too.

Obviously, the Packers have to do something different after they were throttled 38-8 by the Cardinals three weeks ago. Nothing went right for them in that game as they gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with the Cardinals returning two fumbles for scores. While the Cardinals will be content to not change much of the game plan since they rolled in the first meeting, the Packers will be the ones making adjustments, which makes them dangerous.

We saw the same thing last week in the Seahawks/Vikings game. Seattle didn’t feel like it needed to change much after beating the Vikings 38-7 earlier this year. The Vikings made some changes and got healthy, which was the biggest thing for them. And they should have won that game, losing 10-9 only after Blair Walsh missed a last-second field goal.

There’s no question that we are getting great value here with the Packers as 7-point underdogs. That’s especially the case when you compare this line to the line in the first meeting. The Cardinals opened as only 4.5-point home favorites, but now they’ve opened as 7-point home favorites, and that basically only has to do with the first result. But it’s extremely difficult to beat a team of Green Bay’s caliber twice in three weeks, let alone by more than a touchdown. The Packers will have serious revenge in mind, which makes them dangerous.

The offensive line play was the reason for the Packers’ poor performance against the Cardinals three weeks ago. But they shored up that problem last week against the Redskins and played much better. The hurry-up also helped and kept the Redskins’ defensive off-balance, and their pass rush at bay. It will work in the same way this week as the Cardinals won’t be able to make defensive calls like they normally would when opposing offenses huddle up. That means there will be less blitzing, and a much more basic defense for the Cardinals in the rematch.

Outside of that blowout win over the Packers, the Cardinals haven’t been all that good at home here of late. They have only won one of their last six home games by more than 8 points. They lost 6-36 to Seattle, beat Green Bay 38-8, beat Minnesota 23-20, beat Cincinnati 34-31, beat Baltimore 26-18, and lost to St. Louis 22-24 in their last six home games. The Cardinals are 4-2 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while only outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.0 points per game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (more than 4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 66-29 (69.5%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games overall. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Packers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics are back on track after losing six of seven games during their worst stretch of the season.  But all six losses came by 9 points or less, so they simply didn't get it done in close games.  They have put together back-to-back blowout wins over Indiana (103-94) and Phoenix (117-103) since.

Yes, the Celtics will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, but this is one of my favorite teams to back on short rest because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They'll be up against a short-handed Wizards team tonight that is also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Boston has absolutely owned Washington in two meetings this season.  It won 118-98 back on November 6 and 111-78 on November 27.  I look for more of the same from the Celtics here even though they'll be on the road this time.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 28-11 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Celtics are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a win.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday.

15* Chiefs/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 42.5

This line for this game at -5 looks pretty spot on to me, but if anything I'd lean towards taking the Chiefs.  Instead, I think the UNDER 42.5 is the best play for this game.  Both defenses are top-notch and will make life difficult on the opposing offenses.  As a result, I think this game stays below the 42.5-point total.

The Chiefs have been stupid-good defensively during their 11-game winning streak.  In fact, they have allowed 22 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games now after shutting out the Texans 30-0.  They have allowed an average of just 11.5 points per game over their 11-game winning streak.  They allowed just 205 total yards to Oakland and 226 total yards to Houston in their last two contests.

The Patriots have also been a tremendous defensive team this season.  They give up only 19.7 points per game while ranking 9th in the NFL in total defense at 339.4 yards per game.  Their numbers are even better at home as they allow 17.7 points per game and 312 yards per game inside Gillette Stadium this season.

Kansas City has been winning in spite of its offense.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense at 331.2 yards per game on the season.  This offense suffered a big blow when star receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a high ankle sprain against Houston last week.  He was seen crying while being carted off the field in the 3rd quarter, and even though he's only listed as questionable, I have a hard time believing that he'll be effective at all even if he plays.  Maclin is the one guy the Chiefs couldn't afford to lose on offense because he's Alex Smith's security blanket.

The Patriots have been rather pedestrian down the stretch offensively.  They managed just 313 total yards against Houston, 284 total yards against the Jets, and 196 total yards against the Dolphins in their last three games.  They are expected to get Julian Edelman back, but who knows how effective he'll be.  The problem is the offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries.  Plus, injuries to Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount have forced the Patriots to bring Steven Jackson back out of retirement, which just shows how dire they are in the backfield.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 55, 37, 27 and 42 points.  The Chiefs have held the Patriots in check, limiting them to an average of 20.3 points and 328.5 total yards per game in the last four meetings.  That 55-point effort was fluky as the teams combined for 21 points in the fourth quarter in garbage time, including an INT return for a TD by the Chiefs.  It was a 41-14 game, so the intensity level was not really there in the second half.  This game should be close throughout, so the intensity level will be high for both defenses.

New England is 8-0 to the UNDER off two consecutive road losses since 1992.  Kansas City is 13-3 to the UNDER off six or more consecutive wins since 1992.  The Chiefs are 9-2 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 23-11-2 in Chiefs last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are way undervalued right now due to their 9-8 start to the season.  But they haven't been healthy all year, and they're finally starting to get healthy, so this team is going to be a good bet going forward.

The Illini returned their leading scorer in Kendrick Nunn last time out and showed what they were capable of.  They crushed Purdue 84-70 at home as 9.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 23.5 points.  Now I look for them to roll Nebraska at home, too.

Nebraska has been a great home team in recent years, but an awful road team.  That has proven to be the case again this season as the Huskers are 1-3 in true road games with blowout losses to Villanova (by 24), Creighton (by 16) and Iowa (by 11).  Their only win came at lowly Rutgers.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings since 2012.  Illinois is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nebraska during this stretch with wins by 12, 11, 7 and 5 points.

Nebraska is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after scoring 80-plus points in two consecutive games.  Illinois is 9-1 ATS in home games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Illini are 10-1 ATS after scoring 80-plus points over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +8.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points on the road to Eastern Michigan, a team I believe they are better than and that will show today.

The Falcons are 11-5 on the season, including 4-1 in their last five games overall.  They have beat Cleveland State on the road by 15, Oakland City by 31 at home, Miami Ohio by 11 at home, and Ohio by 16 on the road as 10-point dogs during this stretch.

Eastern Michigan is just 2-2 in its last four games with a 5-point home loss to lowly North Florida and a 17-point road loss to Northern Illinois.  The Eagles are simply getting too much respect for their 7-1 home record.  They don't have a good home win yet as their seven victories have come against Vermont, Siena Heights, Marygrove, Madonna, Rochester College, Detroit and Buffalo.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or less of their attempts over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1

The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get.  The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot.  They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game.  This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.

Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings.  Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks.  This game won't come close to reaching 210 combined points Friday.

These teams are used to playing in low-scoring, defensive battle when they get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 189, 183, 175 and 184 combined points.  That's an average of 182.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.

The UNDER is 20-7 in Hawks last 27 Friday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls.  As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.

The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go.  They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler.  Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight.  The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.

Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -4

The San Francisco Dons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Loyola-Marymount.  There's no question in my mind that they are by far the superior team, and as a result we are getting them at a great value as only 4-point favorites.

San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  It beat Pacific by 13 at home, Portland by 12 at home, and San Diego by 8 on the road.  Its two losses have come against arguably the two best teams in the WCC.  But it only lost by 8 at home to Gonzaga as 13.5-point dogs and by 10 on the road to BYU as 17-point dogs, proving that it can play with the two best teams in the conference.

Loyola-Marymount is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has lost by 27 at Portland, by 23 at Gonzaga, by 3 at Pepperdine, by 25 at home to St. Mary's, and by 2 at home to Pacific during this stretch.  It's clear that this team isn't anywhere near the level of the Dons by those results.

Common opponents really tell the story here for me.  These teams have six games played against common opponents already.  San Francisco is 4-2 against those teams with a dead even scoring differential.  Loyola-Marymount is 2-4 against those six teams and getting outscored by 12.3 points per game against them.

The Dons are 7-3 at home this season, while the Lions are 2-7 on the road.  San Francisco is 14-4 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Loyola-Marymount.  The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Dons are 55-23-1 ATS in their last 79 conference games.  The Lions are 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Dons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with San Francisco Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -4.5

The Utah Utes will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  They are 12-4 on the season, but they have opened 1-2 in conference play.  That's not the end of the world considering all three of their conference games have been on the road up to this point.

Now the Utes return to their home court where they are 8-0 on the season and outscoring teams by an average of 25.7 points per game.  This is a Utah team that has beaten Duke on a neutral court, so we know what it is capable of.  The Utes have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as they are 44-18-2 ATS in their last 62 home games.

Oregon has played well at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  Indeed, the Ducks have only played two true road games this season, and they lost both.  They lost 72-74 at Boise State as 2-point underdogs and 57-70 at Oregon State as 2-point favorites.  This team is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight given those road results.

Oregon is 4-12 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.   Utah is a perfect 9-0 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game.  The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These last three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Utes.  Take Utah Thursday.

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -6.5

The Michigan State Spartans (16-1) want revenge on the Iowa Hawkeyes, who handed them their only loss of the season in the Big Ten opener.  The Spartans lost that game on the road as 3-point underdogs, so they were expected to lose.  I took the Hawkeyes in that game and won, but now I'm jumping ship and backing the Spartans in this revenge spot.

The difference in this game will be the fact that the Spartans will be playing with their best player in Denzel Valentine.  He missed the first meeting with an injury, and his presence has been felt since he returned.  The Spartans just crushed Penn State 92-65 on the road last time out in his return.  He played just 23 minutes and scored 10 points, and after shaking off the rust, look for him to be even more effective in his second game back.

The Hawkeyes are simply overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start within the Big Ten.  They did pick up a big win at Purdue, but their other two wins have both come at home against Nebraska and Michigan State sans Valentine.  I just don't believe the Hawkeyes are going to be able to match the intensity level of the Spartans in this one, and I look for them to get blown out the building.

Michigan State is a perfect 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Iowa dating back to 1997.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4

The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season.  This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.

I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk.  Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games.  They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.

But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about.  Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.  The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.

Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -4.5

I believe the Boise State Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West this season.  They have gotten off to a 12-4 start and are well on their way to winning the conference title.  Head coach Leon Rice continues to do a tremendous job with this program.

The Broncos are a perfect 9-0 in their last nine games overall with road wins at Portland (81-71) and at Utah State (76-61).  They have also beaten Oregon, Colorado State and Fresno State at home during this stretch to highlight some of their victories.

Nevada (10-6) is no better than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Mountain West.  The Wolf Pack have really struggled of late against the best teams that they've played.  They've lost three of their last five games coming in with a 69-98 blowout to Wichita State, a 76-88 blowout to New Mexico, and a 63-85 blowout to Fresno State.  Their only wins have come against Wyoming (by 3) and Air Force.

Boise State crushed Nevada 78-46 in their only meeting last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Boise State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Mountain West foes.  The Wlf Pack are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Nevada is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Roll with Boise State Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits.  So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations.  Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5.  This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest.  The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +10

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson welcomed back four starters this year, and it has led to a 13-2 season up to this point.

The Cougars have really upped their place in AAC play.  They are 3-0 within the conference with a 73-67 win at South Florida, a 77-50 win at Temple as 6-point dogs, and a 63-45 home win over Tulane.  This team is simply rolling right now, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers.

Cincinnati is 12-5 on the season.  This team hasn't shown me enough to warrant being 10-point favorites over this solid Houston outfit in what I believe to be a very evenly-matched game.  The Bearcats have lost three of their last five games, including home losses to both Iowa State and Temple.  They also barely beat South Florida 54-51 on the road last time out as 15.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. AAC opponents.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -3.5

We are getting the Kansas State Wildcats at a tremendous price today as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  We'll take advantage and back the Wildcats, who are highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season after three close calls.

Indeed, the Wildcats are 0-3 within the conference with a 4-point home loss to WVU, a 3-point road loss at Texas, and a 10-point road loss at Oklahoma as 12.5-point dogs.  But the Wildcats are 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

The Red Raiders are getting a lot of love because they played both Iowa State and Kansas reasonably tough in their last two games.  But after an easy schedule to start the season, their true colors are starting to show, and they clearly aren't as good as their 11-3 record would indicate.  That will show again here tonight.

Kansas State has owned Texas Tech, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings with all 10 victories coming by 4 points or more.  The Wildcats are 6-0 in their last six home meetings with the Red Raiders with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  K-State is 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season.   The Red Raiders are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7

The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night.  They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.

The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road.  Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money.  The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor.  That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.

Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio.  It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs.  The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics Money Line -103

The Boston Celtics will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season.  They have last three straight and five of their last six coming in, including a blown 20-point lead in a 98-101 loss at Memphis on Sunday.  They are clearly going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The New York Knicks are playing very well, winners of four of their last five coming in.  But this team is starting to become overvalued, and this recent run has them content with how they are playing at the moment.  They aren't going to want this win as much as the Celtics, and as a result won't be able to match their intensity level.

The Celtics have owned the Knicks, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with wins by 9, 4, 21 and 11 points.  The road team has actually won four of the last six meetings, too, so home-court advantage has meant very little when these Atlantic Division rivals have gotten together.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after having lost 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in.  The Celtics are 13-1 ATS int heir last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more in two consecutive games coming in.  Boston is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after playing two consecutive road games coming in.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +10.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are simply catching too many points tonight against the Ohio Bobcats.  I'll gladly back them as double-digit underdogs in a game that they can win outright.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

The reason this line is so high is because Bowling Green (10-5) is coming off one of its worst performances of the season in a 67-79 home loss to Central Michigan.  The Falcons had won three straight games by double-digits prior to that defeat, so they aren't broken after one bad game.

Ohio (10-4) hasn't shown me anything to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.  It has a 5-point home win over Jackson State, a 7-point home win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an 11-point loss at Northern Illinois, and a 6-point home win over Ball State in four of its last five games coming in.

The Falcons owned the Bobcats in both meetings last season, winning 76-65 as 4-point road favorites and 69-54 as 7.5-point home favorites.  There's no way they should be double-digit dogs a year later in their first meeting of 2015.

The Falcons are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Bowling Green is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 MAC games.  The Bobcats are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Miami/Virginia ACC No-Brainer on Virginia -5

The Virginia Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Miami Hurricanes.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, and now they'll be looking to avoid their first 3-game skid in nearly five years.  I like their chances to get back on track at home tonight.

Virginia has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  It is 12-0 in its last 12 home games, including 7-0 this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game at home this year.

There's no question that Miami is a quality team with its 13-1 record, but there's also no denying that it has benefited from an easy schedule.  In fact, the Hurricanes have only played on true road game all season.  That resulted in a lackluster 77-72 win at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season.

Virginia clearly matches up well with Miami.  It won 89-80 on the road as 6.5-point favorites last year, and 65-40 at home as 10.5-point favorites in 2014.  The Cavaliers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Bet Virginia Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons.  They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS.  They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season.  They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.

The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well.  I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Clemson +7

Deshaun Watson is exactly the type of quarterback that Alabama has struggled against through the years. He can beat you with his arms and his legs, and I look for him to make enough plays to keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters. The Tigers weren’t getting any respect as underdogs against Oklahoma when they dominated in a 37-17 victory, and they’re certainly not getting respect as touchdown dogs here in the title game.

Watson is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,032 yards and 12 scores. He probably feels like he got snubbed out of the Heisman Trophy, which went to Alabama’s Derrick Henry. So not only will the Tigers be motivated as underdogs, they’ll also get an inspired effort from Watson here as he looks to make a statement.

While the edge on defense goes to the Crimson Tide in this one, there’s no denying that the edge on offense clearly belongs to the Tigers. They are putting up 38.4 points and 511.7 yards per game against teams that only give up 25.3 points and 379 yards per game. Alabama averages 34.4 points and 423.8 yards per game against teams that give up 24.9 points and 365 yards per game.

But it’s not like the Tigers are slouches on defense. They are allowing 20.0 points and 302.0 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 398 yards per game. They also give up just 4.7 per play against teams that average 6.0 per play. Stopping Henry and Alabama's rushing attack will be key for the Tigers, and they are equipped to do it. They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 190 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Alabama’s defense has put up great numbers this season, but it has faced some awful offenses here down the stretch. Its last four games have come against Michigan State, Florida, Auburn and Charleston Southern. The Crimson Tide will be taking a big step up in competition here as Clemson has one of the best offenses in the land. In fact, this will be the best offense that Alabama has seen all season. Ole Miss was the next-best offense it has faced, and it gave up 43 points in a loss to the Rebels.

Clemson is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5

A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games.  As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards.  I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.

The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out.  The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games.  But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.

The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5.  They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set.  They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time.  They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.

Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively.  That's an average of 118.0 points per game.  I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni.  They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season.  The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.

The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory.  Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.

Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* Packers/Redskins NFC No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay -1

I just simply trust the Green Bay Packers more than the Washington Redskins in a big game like this. They have all kinds of playoff experience, while the Redskins haven’t made the postseason since Robert Griffin III’s rookie season. The Redskins are 0-3 in their last three playoff games and haven’t won a playoff game since 2005. I don’t believe that streak is going to end this weekend.

In fact, I believe the Redskins are the worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs. They won a very weak NFC East division to get here, and the numbers support my claim. The Redskins rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 26.8 yards per game. That is easily the worst ranking in this all-important stat of all 12 playoff teams.

Yes, the Redskins won each of their final four games this season, but they were fortunate to do so. They were outgained in four of their final five games. Plus, those five games came against the Cowboys (twice), Eagles, Bills and Bears. None of those five teams made the playoffs this year.

Washington also benefited from such an easy schedule this season. Indeed, 14 of its 16 games were against non-playoff teams. It was crushed in its two games against playoff teams, losing 16-44 at Carolina and 10-27 at New England. Conversely, Green Bay played seven games against playoff teams this season. It went 3-4 against them, but it certainly played a tougher schedule to get here, and that’s why its 10-6 record is much more impressive than Washington’s 9-7 mark.

The Redskins have been extremely fortunate this season in creating turnovers by their defense. In fact, they have recovered the most fumbles of any team in the league. Well, the Packers aren’t a team that turns the ball over often. They have committed only 17 turnovers in 16 games this season, so they aren’t going to beat themselves.

The Packers should have no problem getting their offense going this week against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in allowing 380.6 yards per game. This is a defense that gives up a ridiculous 6.3 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.7 per play. The Packers are clearly superior on that side of the ball as they give up 346.7 yards per game this season. I also like the fact that the Packers are getting healthy along the offensive line and should protect Aaron Rodgers much better this week.

The Packers have owned the Redskins, going 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Their only loss came in overtime on the road back in 2010. The Packers have outscored the Redskins 163-73 in those six meetings, or by an average of 15.0 points per game. If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for it to continue in this NFC Wild Card showdown Sunday.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Green Bay is 9-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons. Washington is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five playoff road games.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Vikings NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Seattle -4.5

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing like the best team in the NFL here down the stretch. They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. Their only loss came via fluke at home to the Rams as they outgained St. Louis by 107 yards in that game.

In fact, they have outgained six of their last seven opponents by at least 107 yards, including 122 against Arizona, 193 against Cleveland, 122 against Baltimore, 308 against Minnesota and 202 against San Francisco. The Seahawks now rank 1st in the NFL in the all-important yardage differential stat, outgaining teams by an average of 86.8 yards per game on the season.

To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank just 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 23.0 yards per game. Only the Redskins have been worse among playoff teams in that department. As a result, I believe the Vikings are one of the most overrated teams in the playoffs. They are awful on offense and just above-average on defense. They were fortunate to beat the Packers in the finale as they were outgained 242-350, or by 108 total yards.

The Vikings rank just 29th in the NFL in total offense at 321.2 yards per game. Adrian Peterson is nursing a back injury that limited him to 67 yards on 19 carries against the Packers.  To compare, the Seahawks rank 4th in total offense at 378.6 yards per game, and Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP level for weeks. He has a ridiculous 24-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his last seven games. He has also rushed for 553 yards and a score on the season.

I just don’t believe the Vikings are going to be able to put up enough points to keep up with Wilson and the Seahawks. That’s because Seattle is just as good on the other side of the football. It ranks 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 291.8 yards per game. It has limited its last five opponents to 6, 23, 13, 6 and 7 points, respectively. That's an average of 11.0 points per game.  This is back to being the dominant defense that we’ve become accustomed to in recent years.

The Seahawks simply own the Vikings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with wins by 31, 21 and 10 points, respectively. That includes the 38-7 beat down the Seahawks put on the Vikings on the road back on December 6. This was arguably the most dominant performance of one team over another this entire season. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings 433-125 for the game, or by a ridiculous 308 total yards.

Seattle is 8-0 ATS after having won four out of its last five games over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. Seattle is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 versus good rushing teams who average 130 or more rushing yards per game in the second half of the season. Plays on favorites after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +7.5

The Detroit Titans have been awful on the road, but they've been a juggernaut at home this season.  They've gone a perfect 9-0 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 15.2 points per game.  I love the proposition of getting them as nice-sized home underdogs here to Valpo.

Detroit is certainly one of the best offensive teams in the country.  It is scoring 85.4 points per game overall, including 91.3 points per game on 49.6% shooting at home.  This team is going to be able to score on Valpo today.

All three of Valpo's losses this season have come on the road.  They lost 85-81 at Belmont, 67-73 at Oregon and 69-66 at Ball State, and they only beat Oregon State by 6 and Indiana State by 6 on the road, so they are vulnerable away from home.  We saw that last year as well as Detroit beat Valpo 63-60 at home as 4.5-point dogs.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Titans are 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Titans.  Roll with Detroit Sunday.

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +18

This is my favorite play in the WCC for the entire 2015-16 season.  This is a massive lookahead spot for BYU, which faces Gonzaga in its next game.  It will just be going through the motions to try and beat San Francisco today and not giving the kind of effort it's going to take to put away the Dones by 18-plus points.

San Francisco comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall with a 13-point win over Pacific, a 12-point win over Portland, and an 8-point road win at San Diego.  Its only loss came at home to Gonzaga by 8 points as 13.5-point dogs, so it has already proven it can play with the best team in this conference.

One thing that really stood out to me was how tough San Francisco has played BYU on the road in recent years.  The Dons are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to BYU.  They lost by 4 as 13-point road dogs last year, lost by 5 as 11.5-point dogs two years ago, and won by 12 outright as 14.5-point dogs three years ago.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dons are 98-58 ATS in their last 156 conference road games.  The Dons are 54-23-1 ATS in their last 78 WCC games overall.  San Francisco is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games.  The Cougars are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -2.5

It’s no surprise that all four Wild Card teams are actually favored despite playing on the road. That’s because the Wild Card teams are simply better than the division winners, and that is the case in this game. I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team here, and I trust them to go on the road with all of their playoff experience and knock off the Bengals by at least a field goal to cover this 2.5-point spread.

After all, the Steelers have owned the Bengals in recent meetings. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bengals. Their only loss came 16-10 back on November 1 of this season, which was the first game back from injury for Ben Roethlisberger. He was clearly rusty as he gave the game away by throwing three interceptions. But the Steelers still should have won that game as they outgained the Bengals 356-296.  The would bounce back with a 33-20 win at Cincinnati on the road on December 13 only after the Bengals scored a garbage TD in the closing seconds.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL. It ranks 3rd in the league in total offense at 395.4 yards per game, including 3rd in passing offense at 287.7 yards per game. Both numbers would have been even better had Roethlisberger not missed a four full games and parts of two others due to injury. They are putting up 26.4 points per game and only giving up 19.9 points per game on the season.

The Bengals have not played very well since Andy Dalton went out with an injury. Yes, they’ve gone 2-1 in their three games without him to close out the season, but they were very fortunate they didn’t go 0-3. They were outgained by 76 yards in their 24-14 win at San Francisco, by 96 yards in their 17-20 loss at Denver, and by 49 yards in their 24-16 home win over Baltimore. The Bengals are only averaging 21.7 points, 276.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in their last three games without Dalton, who isn’t expected to be ready to play Saturday.  This offense can't keep up with the Steelers in its current state.

Cincinnati has a playoff curse that it cannot seem to shake. It is 0-6 in its last six playoff games with its last win coming all the way back in 1990. Sure, the Bengals want to put an end to this drought, but every year the pressure gets bigger, and they just don’t handle it well. The offense has been the culprit as the Bengals have scored 10, 10, 13, 10, 14 and 17 points in the six losses. With or without Dalton, I look for this offense to struggle mightily again.

The Bengals have also had plenty of leaks defensively this season. While they are stout against the run, they are extremely vulnerable against the pass, which plays right into the Steelers’ hands. They give up 64.2 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 301, 251, 270, 263, 277 and 282 passing yards in six of their last seven games coming in. Roethlisberger should have a field day Saturday.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games vs. teams who average 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64 percent or more of their passes. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in January. The Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in January, including 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games.  Bet the Steelers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons.  This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.

Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season.  They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home.  They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.

Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall.  That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat.  The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result.  They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.

The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +8.5

The Miami Hurricanes are way overvalued right now due to their 12-1 start to the season.  They have covered five of their last six against the spread, so the betting public is all over them.  But they have certainly benefited from playing an easy schedule here of late as their last six opponents have been Charlotte, Florida, College of Charleston, LaSalle, Princeton and Syracuse with none of those being true road games.  It's simply time to fade the Hurricanes.

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory in this rivalry game.  They have opened 0-2 in ACC play with a 75-84 loss at Clemson and a 90-106 home loss to North Carolina in a game that was close until the final 10 minutes.  They will be playing with a little extra edge here today to try and get their first ACC victory.  This is still a quality team at 10-4 and one that will be a force in the ACC the rest of the way.

But what really stands out to me is the closely-contested nature of this series.  Indeed, each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less.  The Seminoles haven't lost to the Hurricanes by more than 6 points in any of the last five meetings.  So given the close nature of this series, getting 8.5 points is a ton of value.  Plus, the Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  These five trends combine for a 40-1 system backing the Seminoles.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

The Oklahoma Sooners are in a massive hangover spot Saturday.  They are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Kansas on Monday, and it's going to be hard for them to come back and give the kind of effort they played with in that game to try and pull off the upset, only to come up short.

Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Bruce Weber has this team playing some great basketball this year.  The Wildcats are 10-4 with all four of their losses coming by 10 points or less to some very good teams.  They lost by 10 to North Carolina on a neutral court, by 10 to Texas A&M on the road, by 4 at home to West Virginia, and by 3 at Texas.

But what really stands out is that Kansas State has had Oklahoma's number in recent years.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Sooners despite being underdogs in three of those.  Thy won both meetings last year with a 66-63 road win as 12-point dogs, and a 59-56 home win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  K-State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of its games.  The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  K-State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

The Vanderbilt Commodores are highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they travel to face the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks.  The Commodores have opened 0-2 in SEC play with an 8-point home loss to LSU and an overtime road loss to Arkansas.  They want to right the ship in a hurry.

I like their chances to get in the win column in SEC play Saturday because I still believe this is one of the best teams in the conference.  But they have lost a lot of close games here of late as five of their six losses have come by 8 points or less.

A big reason has been because they've been without one of their best players in Luke Kornet (9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for five games.  But Kornet returned against Arkansas last game and had 11 points and 8 rebounds.  His presence will be huge against South Carolina, and going forward.

South Carolina is certainly a feel-good story up to this point with its 14-0 start, but it has come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Gamecocks have only had to play two true road games this season and they haven't faced a ranked opponent all year.  They will be exposed for what they are, which is just a middle-of-the-pack SEC team,   against the best team they've faced in Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Commodores are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green -1

The Bowling Green Falcons are arguably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 10-4 start this year, which includes a 6-1 home record.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.

Central Michigan is just 7-7 and has had some very suspect performances this season.  It has losses to Weber State (by 3), Western Kentucky (by 28), Grand Canyon (by 3) and Eastern Michigan (by 19).  It also has ugly home wins over McNeese State (by 1) and Texas Southern (by 8).

But the most important stat going against the Chippewas is the fact that they are 0-6 in all road games this season.  Their defense has been horrible away from home as they are giving up 82.7 points per game and 48.7% shooting to opponents.  They just gave up 66% shooting in their 99-80 home loss to Eastern Michigan on Wednesday, so defense clearly is not a priority for them.  The Falcons have only allowed 55.0 points per game during their 3-game winning streak coming in.

Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 26-13 ATS in their alst 29 games overall.  The Chippewas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5

This is a massive letdown spot for the LSU Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 85-67 home win on National TV against #9 Kentucky on Tuesday.  There's no question they have been getting patted on the back over the last few days leading up to this game, and it will go to their heads, and they will not show up with the same intensity against Florida Saturday.

At the same time, this is a great spot to back the Gators.  They are coming off a bad 69-83 road loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, so they'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column when they return home, where they were last seen crushing Georgia 77-63 as 8-point favorites to open SEC play.

The Gators are 6-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by 21.5 points per game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in all road games this season, giving up 84.2 points per game away from home.  Florida has won four of its last five home meetings with LSU with all four victories coming by 12 points or more.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Johnny Jones is 4-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of LSU.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +5

The Tennessee Vols are a much better team than their 8-6 record would indicate.  Their six losses have all come on the road to Georgia Tech (by 2), George Washington (by 3), Nebraska (by 11), Butler (by 8), Gonzaga (by 7) and Auburn (by 6).

So, they've shown that they can play with the likes of George Washington, Butler and Gonzaga, which says all that you need to know about this team.  The Vols really showed what they were capable of when they beat Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday.  They improved to 8-0 at home this season with that huge victory.

Texas A&M is overrated due to playing a home-heavy schedule.  It has played just two true road games this season.  One was a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites, and the other was a narrow 61-60 road win at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites Wednesday night.  The Aggies shouldn't be favored on the road against the Vols today based off those two performances, especially considering the Vols haven't lost at home this year.

One of my favorite trends that I always look for with Tennessee is that it is 32-9 ATS in its last 41 games as a home underdog or pick 'em.  Better yet, the Vols are 27-6 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them.  The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.

The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.

Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196

With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be.  They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.

Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves.  The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points.  They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road.  Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are in a world of hurt right now.  They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.

The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season.  They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home.  The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +13.5

The Michigan State Spartans have looked pedestrian without their best player in Denzel Valentine, who will miss this game as well.  They needed overtime to beat Oakland on a neutral court, lost by 13 at Iowa, and had a hard-fought 69-61 win over a sub-.500 Minnesota team in their last three games without him.

Illinois has proven that it is not intimidated by facing the Spartans at the Breslin Center.  In fact, the Fighting Illini have won each of their last two trips to Michigan State.  They won 59-54 as 9.5-point road underdogs last season, and 53-46 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2014.

Illinois had won five straight games before opening 0-2 in Big Ten play.  But they lost by 10 to Michigan and by 2 at Ohio State, so they have been competitive to open conference play.  Now the Fighting Illini will be extra motivated to get that first Big Ten victory.  While they may not get it, it's certainly reasonable to think that they'll stay within 13 points of the Spartans tonight.

The Fighting Illini are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Michigan State.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Illinois Thursday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home.  It's  now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.

Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home.  It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average.  In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3).  So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy State +11.5

The Georgia State Panthers made some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year due to the heroics of RJ Hunter, who is now gone.  They are now overvalued after that recognition as they only brought back one starter from that team.

Georgia State has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, but it has been far from impressive.  Its best wins have come at home against Old Dominion (by 4) and Middle Tennessee (by 2).  This team is simply laying too many points here tonight.

Troy is only 5-8, but I have been impressed with how well this team has played on the road this season.  It is 1-2 in true road games with a 12-point win over North Texas, a 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 15.5-point underdogs, and a 3-point loss at Ole Miss as 3-point dogs.  To compare, Georgia State lost by 9 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point dogs earlier this year.  Seven of the Trojans' eight losses this season have come by 9 points or less.

The Trojans have played the Panthers very tough on the road in recent meetings.  They lost 72-77 as 19.5-point rod dogs last year and 72-81 as 16-point dogs in 2014.  The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Trojans are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Troy is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off two consecutive home losses.  Take Troy Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +20

San Jose State was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year.  But this is now one of the most improved teams in the land in 2015-16.  The Spartans are 5-9 and fully capable of staying within 20 points of the San Diego State Aztecs, who haven't been as good as in year's past.

All nine of San Jose State's losses this season have come by 20 points or fewer.  That includes a 7-point loss at Air Force as 9-point road dogs and an 18-point loss at Marquette as 21.5-point dogs.  Considering the Spartans have played 14 games this season and haven't lost by more than 20 once, that's a 14-0 system backing them based on this 20-point spread.

San Diego State likely won't be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  It is just 9-6 on the year with some ugly losses and wins this year.  It lost to West Virginia by 22 on a neutral court, and it was also upset at home by both Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and Grand Canyon (by 7) in a game that didn't even have a line.

SDSU is 5-15 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Aztecs are 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7

Mississippi State is a team that I've had my eye on all season.  This is a squad that returned four starters from last year under the guidance of first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours back in his prime.

As I expected, the Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they've gone 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games.  They've been an especially profitable bet at home by going 5-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off three straight blowout wins over Tulane (by 10), Northern Colorado (by 24) and NC Central (by 23) and are chomping at the bit to play their first SEC game in front of their home crowd tonight.

Texas A&M is a highly ranked team this season and it is overvalued as a result of its 11-2 start.  While the Aggies have played some tough teams, they have actually only played one true road game all season.  That ended in a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202

This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records.  Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.

That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways.  The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively.  Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.

The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points.  Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5

The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen.  The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.

Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7).  Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.

UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall.  This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit.  UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.

Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5

This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.

While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home.  In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.

With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season.  Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game.  Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.

Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game.  EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least.  In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season.  This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.

The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.  The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers.  I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.

Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play.  They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.

The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).

Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2

The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.

The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season.  They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games.  They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.

The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason.  Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him.  They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.

St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season.  The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks.  Take St. Joe's Tuesday.