09-13-15 |
Miami Dolphins -3 v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 35 m |
Show
|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -3
The Miami Dolphins are a team on the rise. After back-to-back 8-8 seasons, they are ready to break through and make the playoffs in 2015. They have all the pieces in place to give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East this year.
The Dolphins put up their best offensive yardage ranking (14th) since 2008 and their best points ranking (11th) since 2001, which are the last two years the Dolphins made the playoffs. Ryan Tannehill is one of the most underrated young starters in the game, and now he enters the second year of Bill Lazor's offense. This is going to be one of the best offenses in the league as Tannehill has a plethora of weapons around him with the additions of Jordan Cameron, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills to go along with Jarvis Landry.
The defense is another reason to be excited about the Dolphins. They finished 12th in the league in total defense last year and will be dominant this season. That's because they have added the top free agent on the marked in Ndamukong Suh. He was the catalyst behind Detroit's top-ranked defense last season. This will be one of the most dominant defensive lines in the league as Suh joins Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.
Washington is a mess right now off a 4-12 season. Robert Griffin III has essentially been shown the door, and the turnover-prone Kirk Cousins is taking his place. The offensive line can't protect him as the trio of Griffin III, Cousins and Colt McCoy were sacked 58 times last year. This offensive line hasn't gotten much better in the offseason, so look for Suh and company to be in Cousin's hip pocket all day long.
The Redskins won't be much better defensively, either. They ranked 30th in scoring defense last year at 27.4 points per game allowed. They did make some nice moves this offseason in adding guys like Terrance Knighton, but they have a long way to go before being among the better defenses in the NFL. This is still one of the league's worst stop units.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 335 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Washington is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 September home games. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|
09-13-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 |
|
20-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
27 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +3
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team to look out for in 2015. They enter Year 3 under Gus Bradley and have stockpiled a bunch of young talent while rebuilding over the last two years. Now that young talent is going to pay off in 2015 with a much more competitive team.
Blake Bortles got comfortable with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in his rookie season last year while getting his feet wet. By all indications, Bortles looks like the franchise QB that the Jaguars were hoping for. Look for him to take a gigantic leap in Year 2. There is a lot of positive vibes coming out of the locker room with this team as several members have stated that they are going to surprise some people this year, and I agree.
Bradley is a very good defensive mind who now has the right pieces in place to fit his system. The Jaguars improved by leaps and bounds defensively last season, especially when it came to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They finished 6th in the league in sacks. The return of their leader on defense in Paul Posluszny from injury will make them much stronger against the run this season. He missed nine games last year with a torn chest.
While I do think the Jaguars will be improved, the biggest reason for this play is that I think Carolina is going to be absolutely horrid this season. The Panthers won the NFC South last year with a 7-8-1 record, and they did so after opening the season 3-8-1. So they simply finished strong the last four weeks of the season while everyone else in this pathetic division faltered.
The Panthers did little to improve their team this offseason and lost more than they gained. The offense is in really bad shape as Cam Newton has the worst group of receivers in the league after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the preseason. Benjamin had 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie last year and is a massive loss.
That leaves Ted Ginn Jr. who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the past five season, and Corey Brown as the starters. Brown had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season. It's clear to me that Jacksonville is going to be able to load the box and stop the running game, because the Panthers aren't threats in the passing game at all this year.
Yes, Carolina has a solid defense, but this stop unit is overrated in my book because of the attention that Luke Keuchly gets. Even with him, the Panthers still allowed 23.4 points per game last season. That's not the kind of number that would go with 'elite defense' like many like to peg the Panthers as being. They still have holes in a lot of places, especially in the secondary where the Jaguars should be able to take advantage.
Jacksonville is going to come out with something to prove in the opener. I look for Bortles and company to have a big day through the air against a poor Carolina secondary. I also look for their defense to shut down the one-dimensional Panthers do to their lack of weapons outside. Jacksonville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 Week 1 games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|
09-13-15 |
Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -3 |
|
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3
These are two very similar teams who have strong defenses and questions on offense. The thing is I believe the Jets to have the better defense and much fewer questions on offense. I look for the Jets to roll the Browns at home in the season opener for both teams Sunday.
Head coach Todd Bowles worked magic as the defensive coordinator in Arizona the past couple years. He got the most out of the talent on hand, which was less talent than what he'll have to work with in New York. The Jets could legitimately have the league's best defense this season.
They ranked 6th in the NFL in total defense last year. Now they have added former Jets Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, giving them arguably the best CB tandem in the NFL. They already had a strong front seven with their only weaknesses in the secondary. Now this defense no longer has any weaknesses.
I think the Jets will actually be better offensively this season than most give them credit for. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a steadying hand at QB, and it was actually a blessing in disguise that Geno Smith suffered a broken jaw in training camp, because he's not nearly as good as Fitzpatrick. I like the weapons at his disposal as well with the addition of Brandon Marshall to go along with Eric Decker. The rushing attack should be strong with Chris Ivory leading the way behind a solid offensive line. Ivory rushed for 820 yards on only 198 carries last year.
The Jets should find plenty of success on the ground in this one against a Cleveland defense that ranked 23rd overall and 31st against the run. They also ranked just 27th in sacks (31) last season. The Browns do have a very strong secondary, but even with Joe Haden, it's not as good as the secondary the Jets have to offer this season.
The biggest reason for this pick is that I do not think the Browns will be able to do anything offensively. They still have arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL with Josh McCown starting. He was terrible in Tampa Bay last year and he even had two stud receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Now, McCown will be throwing to guys like Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins. If the Panthers don't have the worst receivers in the NFL, than the Browns certainly do. They are also unsettled at running back.
The Jets are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Browns, most recently winning 24-13 at home as 2.5-point favorites in 2013. I foresee a similar outcome in this meeting. The Browns are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 1. The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC opponents. New York could surprise some people this year. Take the Jets Sunday.
|
09-12-15 |
San Jose State +6.5 v. Air Force |
|
16-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
29 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +6.5
These are two teams headed in opposite directions in 2015. The San Jose State Spartans are clearly a team on the rise that is undervalued, while the Air Force Falcons are primed to decline and are overvalued right now. That creates the perfect storm to back an SJSU team that I fully expect to win outright Saturday.
San Jose State has had some very poor luck in Ron Carragher's first two seasons. The Spartans did go 6-6 in 2013, but were not selected to a bowl game. They slipped to 3-9 last year despite finishing with the third-best yardage differential (+82.8 yards/game) of all Mountain West teams. They outgained all opponents by 42 yards per game on the season. But they were -12 in turnovers and had poor offensive (20.4) and defensive (12.1) yards per point.
With 16 returning starters this season, the Carragher has by far his best team yet. That was evident in the opener as San Jose State crushed New Hampshire 43-13. Sure, New Hampshire is an FCS team, but it entered the 2015 season as the No. 7 FCS team in the country. What did Vegas think of New Hampshire? Well, SJSU was only a 6-point favorite, yet it won by 30 points.
Believe it or not, that 30-point win actually should have been bigger. The Spartans outgained New Hampshire 707-186, or by 521 total yards. That's right, the Spartans racked up 707 yards of total offense. This was an offense that brought back a whopping 10 returning starters from last year, so it was going to be good, but nobody expected it to be this good. Before long the secret will be out and there won't be as much value in backing SJSU, but for right now, this team is completely flying under the radar.
Air Force was the most improved team in the country last year, going from 2-10 in 2013 to 10-3 in 2014. But the Falcons had 16 starters back last season after having just 10 back the year before, so they were bounce-back candidates. They certainly weren't as good as their 10-3 record would indicate, though. They were actually outgained by 20.1 yards per game in Mountain West play in spite of their 5-3 record.
Now the Falcons return just 11 starters this season. They lose QB Kale Pearson, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season and actually gave the Falcons a threat of a passing game, which is something they rarely have running the triple-option. They only have four starters back on defense from a unit that had nine starters back last year and gave up 395 yards per game. This is going to be one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West. To compare, SJSU only gave up 357 yards per game last season
Air Force also beat an FCS opponent in Morgan State 63-7 last week. But Morgan State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country as the Falcons were 32.5-point favorites in that game. The Falcons also used a special teams touchdown and a defensive TD to pad the score. I'm not saying the Falcons won't be decent again, but I really believe the Spartans are the better team in this one.
Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 2-9 ATS in a home game when the total is 56.5 to 63 as the coach of Air Force. His teams rarely have the firepower to keep up in shootouts, which is what this game is expected to be. San Jose State is 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games after scoring 37 or more points in its previous game. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Air Force is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 conference games. Take San Jose State Saturday.
|
09-12-15 |
Western Michigan -4.5 v. Georgia Southern |
|
17-43 |
Loss |
-106 |
25 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Western Michigan -4.5
I am very high on the Western Michigan Broncos this season and believe they are the best team in the MAC. Head coach PJ Fleck went just 1-11 in his first season in Kalamazoo, but then guided the Broncos to one of the best turnarounds in the country with an 8-5 record in 2014.
The blew a 21-10 halftime lead to Northern Illinois, otherwise they would have gone on to win the MAC Championship. They are even stronger in 2015 with 16 returning starters. This is easily the most talented team in the MAC. They return QB Zach Terrell, who completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,443 yards with a 26-to-10 TD/INT ratio.
Leading rusher Jarvion Franklin (1,551 yards, 24 TD) and all of the top receivers are back, including Corey Davis (78 receptions, 1,408 yards, 15 TD) and Daniel Braverman (86, 997, 6 TD). The defense is going to be even better this year with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 24.9 points per game last year.
I was very impressed with WMU in the opener. It only lost 24-37 at home to Michigan State, which is considered a national title contender. It was only outgained by 69 total yards against the Spartans. The defense limited senior QB Connor Cook to 15-of-31 passing, and they held their own against the run. Terrell went wild on a very good Spartans' defense, completing 33-of-50 passes for 365 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That effort proved to me that my lofty expectations for this team are warranted.
Georgia Southern caught everyone by surprise last year en route to a 9-3 season that included a perfect 8-0 record in the Sun Belt and a conference championship. It won't have that luxury again now that teams have game tape on them to go off of after last season was their first as a member of the FBS.
The Eagles do have a respectable 13 returning starters back, but their most important returning starter is suspender. QB Kevin Ellison, who was the leader of this team last year and their most important player, has been suspended for the first two games of the season. Ellison threw for 1,001 yards and five touchdowns against three interceptions last year, but rushed for 1,096 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per game.
This offense clearly missed Ellison in the opener. Georgia Southern was destroyed 44-0 at West Virginia as 16-point underdogs. The Eagles were outgained 544-224 for the game, or by 320 total yards. Backup QB Favian Upshaw went just 2-of-13 passing for 29 yards with a whopping four interceptions in the loss. It's clear to me after that performance that Georgia Southern is nothing without Ellison, and that's it's defense is not going to be able to hold up against this high-powered WMU offense.
Plays against any team (GA SOUTHERN) - poor passing team from last season - averaged 150 or less passing yards/game, with 8 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on of 3.5 to 10 points (W MICHIGAN) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS since 1992. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. WMU is 9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win. Roll with Western Michigan Saturday.
|
09-12-15 |
Eastern Michigan +13.5 v. Wyoming |
Top |
48-29 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 32 m |
Show
|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK Eastern Michigan +13.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan off three straight 2-10 seasons. That's understandable, but this team is going to make some real progress in the second year under Chris Creighton in 2015. He welcomes back 13 starters this season, and after the Eagles went just 2-10 ATS last year, they are going to be showing a lot of value this season early and often.
That was the case against Old Dominion in the opener as the Eagles were 6.5-point underdogs and covered the spread, losing by a final of 34-38. That was a solid Old Dominion team that had gone 6-6 the previous season with impressive wins over Louisiana Tech and Rice. The Eagles arguably should have beaten the Monarchs, too.
They outgained Old Dominion 444-413 for the game, but only lost due to a -3 turnover differential. They also had QB Reginald Ball get hurt after they were tied going into the 4th quarter. Ball is questionable to return this week, but head Creighton is optimistic, and even if Ball cannot go then he is very confident in backup Brogan Roback.
“Brogan (Roback) is prepared and he’s taken nearly as many reps all of fall camp as Reggie has,” Creighton said of his sophomore backup. “We have two quality quarterbacks.” Bell went 12-of-18 passing for 117 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, while Roback was 10-of-17 for 71 yards with in interception while filling in for him.
While I do believe the Eagles are vastly improved this season, the biggest reason for this play is that I do not believe Wyoming should be getting this much love from oddsmakers. The Cowboys went just 4-8 in Craig Bohl's first season last year despite having 16 returning starters. Now they have only nine returning starters in 2015 and are pretty much rebuilding, while Eastern Michigan is past that rebuilding phase.
Wyoming showed its rebuilding ways in its 13-24 home loss to FCS foe North Dakota despite being 18-point favorites in the opener. It was dominated in all phases of the game, which is a bad sign when you consider North Dakota isn't even among the top 30 FCS teams in the country. North Dakota outgained Wyoming 429-330 for the game, or by 99 total yards. The Cowboys could only managed 2.2 yards per rush with 41 yards on 19 carries. Conversely, they gave up 276 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry to North Dakota.
Just like Eastern Michigan, Wyoming QB Cameron Coffman is questionable to play and will likely be a game-time decision. That's big because Coffman threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns against North Dakota in a losing effort. Coffman is a former Indiana transfer who actually finished second in passing yards per game in the Big Ten back in 2012. Even if by chance Coffman plays and Ball does not, I still like EMU to cover this spread with ease.
Plays against favorites (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against a home team (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 44-11 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in its last game over the last three seasons. Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.
|
09-12-15 |
UMass +13 v. Colorado |
|
14-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +13
I actually have UMass picked to win the MAC East division this season, that's how highly I think of them despite going 5-31 over the past three seasons. Head coach Mark Whipple was here from '98-'03 and took over a 2-9 team and led them to the IAA National Championship in his first season.
Whipple inherited a 1-11 team last year and took the Minutemen to 3-9, but this had to be one of the best 9-loss teams in the country. The Minutemen had 5 losses by a touchdown or less. They lost by 3 to both Colorado and Vanderbilt, by 5 to Bowling Green after leading in the 4th quarter, blew a 41-14 lead against Miami to lose by 1, and gave up a touchdown with 34 seconds left to lose to Toledo by 7.
Now the Minutemen return 19 starters and will be under the radar from the get-go. That includes QB Blake Frohnapfel, maybe the most underrated QB in the entire country. How important is Frohnapfel to this team? Well, the Minutemen have outgained MAC opponents by 108 yards per game with him, and they've been outgained by 197 yards per game without him.
Frohnapfel threw for 3,345 yards and 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions over the team's first 10 starts last year. The offense is going to be explosive again after averaging 421 yards per game last season with 10 starters back. But look for huge improvements on defense with nine starters back from a unit that gave up 448 yards per game last season with only five starts back. The Minutemen have a very nice set of LB's and DB's in particular.
I really thought Colorado had a chance to make some progress this year, but it's clear after a 28-20 loss at Hawaii in the opener that the Buffaloes are still hurting. They turned the ball over three times and QB Sefo Liufau went just 23-of-40 passing for 158 yards with an interception. That is not a very good Hawaii team, and one that has lost at least nine games each of the past three seasons.
UMass gave Colorado a run for its money last year. It only lost 38-41 at home as 17.5-point underdogs. Frohnapfel threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns with one pick in the loss. I believe the Minutemen will be hungry for revenge in the rematch exactly one year later. This spread has simply been set way too high due to the 19 starters the Minutemen have returning from that 3-point defeat to the Buffaloes.
The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games. UMass is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The Minutemen are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game. Colorado has just 10 wins over the past four seasons and enters this contest on a 9-game losing streak. Bet UMass Saturday.
|
09-12-15 |
Army v. Connecticut -7 |
Top |
17-22 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 32 m |
Show
|
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Connecticut -7
The UConn Huskies are a team that is flying under the radar entering 2015. They went just 2-10 in head coach Bob Diaco's first season last year. But they had just 12 returning starters, and now that number jumps to 14 with 52 lettermen returning and only 13 letter winners lost. I fully expect the Huskies to be improved in the second season under Diaco.
They are off to a promising start. Despite facing an FCS opponent in Villanova, the Huskies were actually 7-point underdogs in their opener. Well, when you consider Villanova is the No. 2 ranked FCS team in the country, it's easy to see why. That's why the Huskies' 20-15 win over Villanova wasn't your usual blah FCS win.
Connecticut is going to have a very good defense this season, just as it did last year when it gave up a respectable 379 yards per game. But now eight starters are back on this side of the ball, and this will be the backbone of the team. The Huskies played well defensively, giving up just 303 total yards to Villanova in the opener. It help them to 3.2 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass.
UConn is going to be much better offensively this season behind sophomore Bryant Shirreffs, a former NC State transfer. He's off to a great start by completing 12 of 20 passes for 202 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against Villanova. He threw a 27-yard TD pass to Akeel Newsome with 4:53 remaining to put the game out of reach. The Huskies led 20-9 at that point before a touchdown in garbage time by Villanova with 1:54 left.
Army is coming off a 4-8 season last year despite having 14 returning starters. It now has just 10 returning starters in 2015, while losing each of its top three rushers on offense, including QB Angle Santiago. The defense gave up 32.9 points and 431 yards per game last season and has just five starters back and will be awful again.
That was evident in Army's 35-37 home loss to Fordham last week. Fordham is another FCS opponent, but it was only ranked No. 21 in the FCS rankings and nowhere near as good as Villanova. The Black Knights were expected to roll as 13.5-point favorites, but it simply did not happen. They were actually outgained by 56 yards in the game and gave up 445 yards to Fordham. I believe that effort will be a sign of things to come for Army in 2015, especially this week given the situation.
UConn will be motivated for revenge in this one. It lost to Army 21-35 last year on the road, but now it gets the Black Knights at home in the rematch. That was far from the 14-point game that it appeared to be as the Huskies were only outgained 353-365 for the game. UConn was actually going in for the game-tying score when Army intercepted a pass and returned it 99 yards for a TD with only 28 seconds remaining.
Army is 0-10 ATS in road games over the last three seasons. UConn is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off an upset win as an underdog. The Black Knights are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games overall. Take UConn Saturday.
|
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah -11.5 |
Top |
14-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* Utah State/Utah ESPN 2 Rivalry Play on Utah -11.5
The Utah Utes are coming off their best season since joining the Pac-12. They went 9-4 last year and finished with a winning record within the Pac-12 for the first time. Sure, they were fortunate to win a lot of close games, but this is a team that can compete in the stacked South division.
With 14 starters and 61 lettermen back, this is Kyle Whittingham's best team that he has had at Utah yet. I liked what I saw from the Utes in their opener against Michigan as they led 24-10 before giving up a garbage touchdown with only 54 seconds to play for a 24-17 victory. That was a Michigan team that will prove to be vastly improved this year as the season goes on, and when we look back, I believe that win over the Wolverines will be even more impressive than it is today.
I certainly was not impressed with Utah State in its opener. It only beat Southern Utah 12-9 despite being 31-point favorites. It actually needed an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown with 4:54 left to play to overcome a 9-5 deficit. I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team not only Friday, but as the season progresses.
The Aggies only managed 250 total yards on Southern Utah. Chuckie Keeton clearly isn't what he used to be as injuries have really taken their toll on him throughout his career. Keeton went just 16-of-33 passing for 110 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for only seven yards on six carries.
Utah State is missing some key players in this one. Starting WR Brandon Swindall is questionable with a hamstring injury, and starting LG Tyshon Mosley is expected to miss this game due to suspension. But the biggest loss is WR Hunter Sharp, who was by far their best receiver last year. He had 66 receptions for 939 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and he has been suspended for this game. Utah checks in very healthy. Keep in mind that Utah beat a very good Mountain West team in Colorado State 45-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl last year. That's a Colorado State team that went 10-3 and was certainly better than Utah State. I would even argue that the Rams were nearly as good as Boise State last year, and the Utes beat them by 35.
Utah is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Utah State. Eight of its last nine wins in the series have come by 16 points or more. The Utes are 38-17-2 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games, including 8-0 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last four September games. Bet Utah Friday.
|
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots |
Top |
21-28 |
Push |
0 |
21 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* Steelers/Patriots 2015 NFL Season Opener on Pittsburgh +7
There’s no doubt that Tom Brady is worth a few points. But four? That seems a little high to me. New England was only a 3-point favorite over Pittsburgh when it was assumed that Brady would be serving a four-game suspension to start the season. But now that Brady won his appeal and will play, oddsmakers have moved this line to New England -7. The value is now with the Steelers in this one in my opinion.
I always look to fade teams off a Super Bowl victory early in the season. They tend to not come back as motivated the following year, and their training camp is much more laid back than most other teams. When you’re on top of the world, it’s even harder to get back there because of overconfidence and always having a target on your back each week.
While New England will no doubt be good again this year, remember, it started just 2-2 last season as well. I don’t expect the Patriots to be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate, especially with all of the distractions from ‘Deflategate’. They haven’t had many game reps with Tom Brady in the preseason, and the ones they had weren’t very productive.
In his first two games of the preseason, four of his five drives were three-and-outs, while completing just 3-of-9 passes. He was even worse against the Panthers, throwing a pair of interceptions in Game 3. With Brady under center, they didn’t score a touchdown until his 12th possession of the preseason. Of course, it is just the preseason, but I really do expect this offense to be a little bit out of sync to open the year.
There’s no doubt the Steelers have concerns of their own offensively. Running back Le’Veon Bell will miss the first two games due to suspension, WR Martavis Bryant will miss the first four games due to suspension, and center Maurkice Pouncey won’t be able to return from an ankle injury until at least Week 12.
While concerning, this is still a Pittsburgh offense that ranked second in the NFL at 411.1 yards per game last season. I still expect it to find plenty of success against this New England defense. The Patriots certainly got worse on this side of the ball in the offseason by parting ways with CB Darrelle Revis, CB Brandon Browner, CB Kyle Arrington and DT Vince Wilfork. I would rate their secondary below-average now, and I expect Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown to have big games.
The Steelers will be energized defensively as they have gotten younger this offseason, letting go of Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jason Worilds. They have been using early draft picks on defense each of the past few seasons, and first-round pick Bud Dupree should be a factor from the start. They also get back a healthy Ryan Shazier at linebacker this year, who was a first-round pick last season. In fact, the Steelers could be starting four former first-round picks at linebacker this season. This youthful defense is the wild card, but I believe they start making progress this year after a couple of down years in a row defensively.
Pittsburgh is grabbing the headlines because of its injuries and suspensions, but New England has some sneaky important injuries and suspensions of its own. Starting running back LeGarrette Blount is out due to suspension. No. 2 receiver Brandon LaFell is out with a foot injury. Starting center Bryan Stork is doubtful with a concussion, so the Patriots are also without their center, just like the Steelers are. No. 1 receiver Julian Edelmen is expected to play, though he's nursing an ankle injury. I just don't believe the Patriots will have the firepower offensively out of the gate to win this game by more than a touchdown to beat us. Bet the Steelers Thursday.
|
09-10-15 |
Louisiana Tech -1.5 v. Western Kentucky |
|
38-41 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 9 m |
Show
|
15* LA Tech/WKU Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech -1.5
Louisiana Tech was easily the second-best team in Conference USA last season. It won the West division and went on to face Marshall in the Championship Game, losing that contest by a final of 23-26 as 7-point underdogs. That was a Marshall team that went 13-1 last year and rarely played any close games.
Now the Bulldogs return 13 starters this season and are clearly a threat to win Conference USA again. They do lose QB Cody Sokol, but they brought in former No. 1 QB recruit in the country in Jeff Driskel, a Florida transfer. This is Driskel's senior season and his last chance to shine, so he's going to be committed to this team. Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's going from facing very tough SEC competition to Conference USA competition, which is like night and day.
It also doesn't hurt that Driskel has all of his top playmakers back from last year. Leading rusher Kenneth Dixon (1,299 yards, 22 TD) and each of his top three receivers in Trent Taylor (64 receptions, 834 yards, 9 TD), Carlos Henderson (29, 569, 4 TD) and Paul Turner (42, 514, 4 TD) are also back. The Bulldogs return six starters and each of their top two tacklers on defense from a unit that gave up a respectable 24.7 PPG last year as well.
Driskel and company put on a show in their 62-15 rout of Southern in the opener. They led 52-8 at halftime before calling off the dogs. That was plenty of time for Driskel to complete 12-of-15 passes for 274 yards and four touchdowns. It was also enough time for Kenneth Dixon to rack up 171 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on only 11 touches. It's safe to say that this offense is going to be explosive again.
Western Kentucky does have 16 starters back from last year and is among the favorites to win Conference USA as well. But I just do not trust this team, especially defensively, where they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game last season. Plus, the Hilltoppers were not impressive at all in their opener against the worst team from the SEC in Vanderbilt.
Sure, they won the game 14-12 as 2-point favorites, but the box score indicates that the Hilltoppers were dominated. They simply benefited from three costly Vanderbilt turnovers. They were outgained 246-393, or by 147 total yards. Their running game produced only 37 yards on 23 carries for an average of 1.6 per carry. Brandon Doughty was held to 209 passing yards and one touchdown, which are terrible numbers for him. The Commodores, not known for their offense, racked up 393 yards on this soft defense. I just believe it's a sign of things to come for the Hilltoppers in this game.
Plus, Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky 59-10 last year in a game that was every bit the 49-point blowout that the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs outgained the Hilltoppers 517-297 for the game. They held Doughty to 14-of-35 passing for 134 yards and one touchdown with four interceptions. Sokol threw for 335 yards and five touchdowns in the win. It's clear that Holtz and company have the antidote for this WKU offense.
Can the Hilltoppers improve by 49 points from one season to the next? It's highly unlikely. LA Tech is 9-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last two seasons. WKU is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last three years. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.
|
09-10-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -137 v. Cincinnati Reds |
|
0-11 |
Loss |
-137 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -137
The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a win today against the Cincinnati Reds. They have lost five of their last seven coming in to see their lead in the NL Central trimmed to 4.5 games. They won't be taking the Reds lightly in this one.
Jamie Garcia has been brilliant this season, going 8-4 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.950 WHIP over 15 starts. Garcia is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 15 career starts against the Reds. He'll be up against a Cincinnati team that has essentially quit, going 9-25 in its last 34 games overall.
The Reds counter with a youngster in John Lamb who has really struggled in limited action this year. Lamb is 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in five starts this year, including 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in three home starts.
St. Louis is 16-1 (+14.7 Units) against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 in Garcia's last seven starts. The Reds are 0-5 in Lamb's last five starts. These three trends combine for a 28-1 system backing St. Louis. Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.
|
09-09-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -121 v. Boston Red Sox |
Top |
4-10 |
Loss |
-121 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -121
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Toronto Blue Jays at this kind of price with the way they have been playing down the stretch. They have gone 29-8 in their last 37 games overall and are clearly playing better than anyone else right now. They are on a mission to win the AL East.
Drew Hutchison has really impressed me here of late, too. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA in his last four starts overall. He'll be up against a Boston team that has nothing to play for at 60-79 on the season.
Joe Kelly has pitched well of late, too, but he's 9-6 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 23 starts this season, and 5-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 12 home starts. Kelly is 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA in four career starts against Toronto as well. He has allowed 15 runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, all of which have come this year.
The Blue Jays are 10-1 in Hutchison's last 11 starts against AL East opponents. Toronto is 15-3 in Hutchison's last 18 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Red Sox are 19-40 in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blue Jays Wednesday.
|
09-08-15 |
New York Mets v. Washington Nationals -112 |
Top |
8-7 |
Loss |
-112 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
20* Mets/Nationals NL East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -112
The Washington Nationals are in must-win mode right now. They trail the New York Mets by five games for the NL East lead and cannot afford to lose this head-to-head game Tuesday, especially after dropping Game 1. It's safe to say that they won't be lacking any motivation.
Jordan Zimmerman has gone 12-8 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 16 home starts. He has been dominant in his last two, giving up just two earned runs over 13 innings. Zimmerman has won four straight starts coming in.
Matt Harvey has certainly been good this season, going 12-7 with a 2.76 ERA in 25 starts, and 4-5 with a 3.08 ERA in 10 road starts. But Harvey allowed four earned runs and 10 base runners in 6 1/3 innings to the Phillies in his last start. He has since created a lot of buzz in the media about how he is likely to get shut down at some point after coming off Tommy John Surgery.
Zimmerman is 12-0 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Mets are 6-24 in their last 30 games as a road underdog. New York is 0-4 in Harvey's last four starts as a road underdog. Washington is 44-15 in Zimmerman's last 59 home starts. Bet the Nationals Tuesday.
|
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14 |
Top |
42-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
117 h 32 m |
Show
|
20* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +14
While I don’t expect the Buckeyes to overlook the Hokies again, I do believe Virginia Tech is fully capable of pulling off another upset. I am very high on the Hokies heading into 2015 because they return 16 starters and this will be one of Frank Beamer’s best teams yet. I predicted that they’d win the Coastal Division and make the ACC Championship Game this year coming into the season.
This is a Virginia Tech team that has won at least 10 games in eight straight seasons prior to failing to win more than eight each of the last three years. Beamer enters his 29th season in Blacksburg and desperately wants to get back to the top of the ACC, which has been a familiar spot for this program up until recently. With 58 lettermen back as well, this team has the depth and talent to do so.
The offense held the Hokies back last year, but it should be vastly improved in 2015 with eight starters back. Quarterback Michael Brewer is now a senior who will be more efficient in Year 2 of the system. He went 23-of-36 for 199 yards against the Buckeyes last season and will be able to lean on that performance to put together another solid one in the rematch. Each of the top three receivers from last year were freshmen, and all three are now sophomores and will have much better chemistry with Brewer.
But the reason Virginia Tech has a chance to pull the upset is its defense. It allowed 20.2 points and 344 yards per game last season and will be even stronger in 2015. That’s because eight starters return on this side of the ball. The entire defensive line returns intact and will be one of the best in the country. The secondary gave up just 199 yards per game and 47.7 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks last season, and now three starters are back, including future NFL star Kendall Fuller at corner.
Ohio State simply enters the 2015 season overvalued due to winning the National Championship. It will have a hard time living up to expectations now, and I believe if you went against the Buckeyes ATS in every game this season, you would come out on top. Some of the spreads they have set for their games are ridiculous, including this one. While there’s no denying that the Buckeyes have the easiest path to get to the four-team playoff because they play in the Big Ten, they just aren’t going to be as dominant as most think.
The Buckeyes will be missing some key players in this game. Defensive end Joey Bosa, H-Back Jalin Marshall, WR Corey Smith and H-Back Dontre Wilson are all suspended. Bosa is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, so his loss is huge. Marshall (30 receptions, 499 yards, 6 TD), Wilson (21, 300, 3 TD) and Smith (20, 255) are three of the team’s top four returning receivers as well. These losses are huge and will put the Buckeyes at a big disadvantage in the opener. Keep in mind that Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech. Bet Virginia Tech Monday.
|
09-07-15 |
San Francisco Giants -104 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -104
The San Francisco Giants (71-66) are not about to throw in the towel even though they are well back in the NL West and NL wild card standings. They still have a shot, and they have shown some resilience in winning each of their last two games following a 7-game losing streak.
The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-72) have realized that their fate is already sealed for a while now. That's why they have not really shown up over the past couple weeks. The Diamondbacks are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall and have lost four straight coming in.
Mike Leake is having a great season at 9-7 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 25 starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 5-4 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in 13 starts. Leake is 0-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.724 WHIP in his last three starts for the Giants as well.
Leake has never lost to the Diamondbacks, going 4-0 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.164 WHIP over seven starts. In his last start against them, he pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings while allowing only five base runners and striking out eight. Take the Giants Monday.
|
09-06-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels -125 |
Top |
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -125
The Los Angeles Angels trail the Texas Rangers by 3.5 games for the final wild card spot in the American League after losing Game 2 of this series yesterday by a single run. I look for them to take this series with a Game 3 victory to pull closer to the Rangers for that wild card spot.
Hector Santiago has pitched very well all season, especially at home. He is 3-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 14 home starts this year. Santiago is 5-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 11 career starts against Texas as well. He has allowed just five earned runs over 24 1/3 innings in four starts against the Rangers in 2015 for a 1.85 ERA.
Colby Lewis is 6-10 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 20 career starts against the Angels. IN his last four starts against Los Angeles, Lewis has allowed 21 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings for an 8.72 ERA.
The Angels are 39-16 in their last 55 games as a favorite. Los Angeles is 25-10 in its last 35 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels are 5-1 in Santiago's last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings, and 1-6 in Lewis' last seven starts against Los Angeles. Take the Angels Sunday.
|
09-06-15 |
Purdue +7.5 v. Marshall |
|
31-41 |
Loss |
-108 |
87 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* Purdue/Marshall Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +7.5
This is the year that Purdue makes a big leap forward. Darrell Hazell enters his 3rd season with the Boilermakers, and he's squarely on the hot seat after going 1-11 in his first season and 3-9 last year. But all signs are pointing up for this team heading into 2015.
The Boilermakers actually made big improvements last year despite only improving by two wins. They were outscored by 23.1 points per game in 2013, but just 7.9 points per game last year, making 15.2-point improvement. Another big jump can be expected this year with a whopping 15 starters and 50 lettermen back and only 17 letter winners lost. Coaches usually make their biggest jump in Year 3, and it will be no different for Hazell.
The offense improved by roughly 8 points and 62 yards per game from 2013 last year. Another step forward should be taken with eight starters back on this side of the ball. They return leading receiver Danny Anthrop, who had 616 receiving yards and four touchdowns despite missing the final three games last year.
The defense improved by 7.3 points and 44 yards per game from 2013 to 2014. Again, another step forward can be expected with seven starters and four of their top five tacklers back. There was concern about some injuries at linebacker, but all three returning starters at LB are expected to be ready to go against Marshall.
The Thundering Herd enter the 2015 season overvalued because of how well they did last season. They went 13-1 last season, but the only relevant team they faced all year was Western Kentucky, and they lost that game. Marshall's schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in every game and by double-digits 12 times.
After having 14 starters back last year, the Thundering Herd only have 11 starters returning in 2015. They lose the school's all-time leading passer in Rakeem Cato (14,079 yards), which is the program's biggest loss since Randy Moss left for the NFL. They also lose leading receiver Tommy Shulder (92 receptions, 1,138 yards, 9 TD), who had 55 more receptions than second place on the team.
The offense is sure to take a huge step back with those two losses, and the defense only have five starters back. They lose their top two tacklers who each registered more than 100 tacklers last year. They only have two returning starters among the front seven, so they are going to be much weaker up front defensively.
The value is clearly with the Big Ten team over the team from Conference USA in this one. Most of the time, the Big Ten team would be favored in this situation. But since Purdue only won four games the past two years combined, and Marshall won 13 games last year alone, the betting public is quick to jump on the Thundering Herd. But these are two teams headed opposite directions entering 2015 folks. The Boilermakers are on the rise, while the Thundering Herd are in rebuilding mode. Bet Purdue Sunday.
|
09-05-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels +100 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels +100
I backed the Angels yesterday with success and I'll back them again today as home underdogs to the Texas Rangers when they shouldn't be. This is the most important series of the season for the Angels as they trail the Rangers now by 2.5 games for the final wild card spot in the AL even after yesterday's victory. There's more work to do.
Jered Weaver has simply pitched too good at home this season to be an underdog. Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in eight home starts this season. Weaver is also 15-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 35 career starts against Texas.
Derek Holland is 6-6 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 18 career starts against the Angels. He just recently returned from injury, and because he has pitched well in four starts, he's being overvalued here.
The Angels are 47-16 in Weaver's last 63 home starts. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Weaver's last five starts as a home underdog. Bet the Angels Saturday.
|
09-05-15 |
Wisconsin v. Alabama -12 |
Top |
17-35 |
Win
|
100 |
68 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* Wisconsin/Alabama ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -12
This one is pretty easy for me. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the supremely talented team, but I believe the questions surrounding the quarterback position have kept this line lower than it should be. When is the last time Alabama didn’t have good quarterback play? Not since Nick Saban has been here, and I’m sure whoever they go with will be more than good enough to lead them to a blowout win over the Badgers.
The questions for the Crimson Tide are on offense with just three returning starters and the loss of Amari Cooper, but the talent on this side of the ball is second to none. This is an offense that put up 36.9 points and 485 yards per game last season in the first year under coordinator Lane Kiffin. They will be explosive again with the new starters ready to step in and pick up where they left off.
But what really excites me about this Alabama team is the defense. It only gave up 18.4 points and 328 yards per game last year despite having only five starters back. Now, the Crimson Tide will have one of their best defenses of the Saban era with seven starters returning. Five of seven starters are back up front and will be prepared to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack. The Crimson Tide only gave up 102 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry last season.
This is a match-up tailor made for the Crimson Tide. The only offenses they have struggled with through the years are ones that spread you out and pass it all over the field. Wisconsin doesn’t have that ability. It has one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. Senior Joel Stave completed just 53.4 percent of his passes for 1,350 yards with a 9-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio last year. He is back as the starter, and the Crimson Tide aren’t going to have to worry about the Badgers' passing game one bit with Stave at the helm.
Yes, the Badgers always have an explosive running game and a great offensive line. That should be the case again even though they lose Melvin Gordon and three starters along the offensive line. I don’t expect them to be as dominant on the ground as they were last year with the losses, but they will be good. But Alabama stops the run as well as almost anyone, so again, it’s just a perfect match-up for the Crimson Tide.
I do believe Wisconsin will have a solid defense this year after giving up just 20.8 points and 294 yards per game last season. It will be tough to match those numbers with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top five tacklers, but this will be a good unit. I do not expect them to hold Alabama to less than 30 points, though, and getting to 30 points will be more than enough for the Crimson Tide to cover this 10.5-point spread. Their defense isn’t going to allow more than 14 points.
Wisconsin may be overvalued here due to beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl last year. But that was an Auburn team that was disappointed to be playing in a lesser bowl after making the National Championship Game the year before. A better indication of what type of team the Badgers were was in their 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. Alabama lost to Ohio State as well, but led 21-6 early and only lost 35-42 in the four-team playoff.
Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) who won 80% or more of their games last season, in non-conference games between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Alabama is simply on another level than Wisconsin with the way it has recruited over the last several years with the top classes in the country. Wisconsin has talent, but it is adjusting to new systems under first-year head coach Paul Chryst. Playing a team of Alabama's caliber is not a good way to break in new systems. Roll with Alabama Saturday.
|
09-05-15 |
Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3 |
Top |
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
74 h 35 m |
Show
|
25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M -3
I am very high on the Texas A&M Aggies this season and believe they are primed for a run at the SEC West title. They come into this season undervalued because they have gone from 11, to 9 to 8 wins in Sumlin’s first three seasons. But last year was expected to be a down year because they lost Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans and a plethora of talent.
After having just 11 returning starters each of the last two seasons, the Aggies are now a more veteran bunch as they return 16 starters in 2015. They were forced to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now those players are a year older and ready to take that next step. After all, Sumlin continues to come away with one elite recruiting class after another. It’s going to pay off sooner rather than later.
The Aggies played a freshman QB in Kyle Allen last year, and two of their top four receivers were freshmen as well. All three return and this is going to be one of the best receiving corps in the country. The Aggies still managed 35.2 points and 455 yards per game last year despite their youth, and now they should have no problem returning to close to the 44 points per game they averaged when Manziel was running the show.
But what really has me excited about this team is the defense. The Aggies managed to lure former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis to oversee the play-calling duties. He steps into a great situation with eight returning starters on defense. This will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 28.1 points and 451 yards per game last year. Their best players was a freshman in Myles Garrett, who recorded 11.5 sacks and will be an even bigger beast as a sophomore. He even played injured down the stretch last year, and teammates think so much of him that they have named him a captain.
I am certainly not down on the Arizona State Sun Devils this season with 16 returning starters as well, but I do believe they were very fortunate to win 10 games last year. They benefited from a +14 turnover differential, and despite going 6-3 in Pac-12 play, they were actually outgained by 15 yards per game against conference opponents last season.
I don’t expect their offense to be as good with the loss of QB Taylor Kelly and leading receiver Jaelen Strong (82 receptions, 1,165 yards, 10 TD). Their defense did not play all that well last season as they allowed 27.9 points and 417 yards per game. While they could be improved in that area, I don’t expect them to take as big of a leap forward as Texas A&M on this side of the ball. The Aggies have loads more talent defensively than the Sun Devils do when you look at the recruiting rankings.
Finally, Texas A&M will have a home-field advantage despite this game being played at a neutral site. It's only about a 1.5-hour drive from College Station to Houston, which will be the site of this game. Meanwhile, it's over 16 hours from Tempe, AZ to Houston. It's safe to say that the Aggies will have a distinct advantage with the crowd. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
|
09-05-15 |
Bowling Green v. Tennessee -21 |
|
30-59 |
Win
|
100 |
66 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Tennessee -21
I’m about as big on Tennessee this season as anyone. In fact, I have picked them to win the SEC East with a 10-2 record. The reason is pretty simple. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes, so the talent is going to deliver the goods with this team sooner rather than later.
We saw it at the end of last year. The Vols went 4-1 over their final five games once Josh Dobbs took over as their starting quarterback. They scored 45 or more points three times during that stretch, and finished it by averaging 33.0 points per game. Dobbs completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 469 yards and eight scores. His dual-threat ability really opened up this offense.
Now Dobbs is a junior and he’s among a loaded roster that returns 18 starters and some of the best talent in the entire SEC. Jones was forced to play 23 true freshmen last season, and now those guys are all a year older. With the way this team finished last season by making a bowl and blowing out Iowa in it, that's a definite positive sign of things to come.
The offense is only going to pick up where it left off last year with 10 returning starters. After having no returning starters on the offensive line last year, the Vols now return four starters up front. Each of their receivers who factored into the passing game last year are back, as is leading rusher Jalen Hurd (899 yards, 5 TD).
The defense will continue to build on the strides it made last year. The Vols only allowed 24.2 points per game last season with five starters back, and now they have eight starters back on defense and should come close to the 20 PPG range. They are very excited about their defensive line, which returns sophomore DE Derek Barnett (72 tackles, 21.5 for loss, 10 sacks). The linebacker corps returns senior SLB Curt Maggitt (11 sacks), giving the Vols two double-digit sack guys back from last year.
This is the perfect storm because I’m also down on Bowling Green. The Falcons won the MAC East title last year but took advantage of a very soft division. They wound up losing to Northern Illinois 51-17 in the MAC Title game, which is more indicative of the type of team this really was, rather than an eight-game winner.
The Falcons do return 10 starters on offense and should be fine there, but the defense is what concerns me. They gave up 33.5 points and 494 yards per game last season with only five starters back. Now they return five starters again and I don’t see the numbers improving. That’s because they lose each of their top four tacklers and arguably their best four players on this side of the football.
Bowling Green was overwhelmed in its two non-conference road games last season. It lost 31-59 at Western Kentucky and 17-68 at Wisconsin. I believe this 2015 Tennessee team is better than both of those squads, and it’s not really even close. I look for the Falcons to get blown out of the building in their first non-conference road game of 2015 as well. Bet Tennessee Saturday.
|
09-05-15 |
Penn State -6.5 v. Temple |
Top |
10-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
64 h 58 m |
Show
|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -6.5
James Franklin had his work cut out for him in his first season at Penn State. He was coming off back-to-back improbable 9-4 campaigns at Vanderbilt, which is no small feat. He did have 12 returning starters to work with last year and reduced sanctions, but it was still a tall task to ask for him to win in his first season. The Nittany Lions wound up finishing 7-6 after beating Boston College 31-30 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They took national champion Ohio State into double-overtime, which shows what they are capable of.
Things are looking up for Penn State entering 2015. It has 15 returning starters, went 2-6 in Big Ten play last year despite only getting outgained by 7.5 yards per game, and now it goes from having 64 scholarship players in 2014 to 83 in 2015. That will dramatically improve their depth at all positions. It was amazing to see the Penn State faithful fill Beaver Stadium during the probation period over the last three years. Now, those fans should be rewarded with some solid football under Franklin going forward.
The offense is in line for massive improvement after averaging just 20.6 points per game last season. QB Christian Hackenberg is among eight returning starters on offense. While Hackenberg had a down season last year, most experts believe he will be the first QB taken in the 2016 NFL Draft.
The reason he struggled so much was because of inexperience along the offensive line. But after having just one O-line starter back last year, the Nittany Lions return four starters and add in two very highly touted linemen. The skill positions are in good hands as well with leading rusher Akeel Lynch (678 yards, 4.6/carry, 4 TD) and each of their top two receivers back in DaeSean Hamilton (82 receptions, 899 yards, 2 TD) and Geno Lewis (55, 751, 2 TD).
Penn State had one of the best defenses in the nation last year. It allowed just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game. With seven starters and five of its top six tacklers back on defense, this is going to be one of the top stop units in the country again.
Temple should be improved this season, but not as much as Penn State. The Owls went 6-6 last year and return 19 starters. But they went 4-4 in American Athletic play despite getting outgained by 69.5 yards per game. Their defense is going to be solid again with 10 starters back, but the offense just doesn't have that much talent.
The Owls only managed 23.1 points per game last season. Quarterback PJ Walker is experienced with two years as a starter under his belt, but he regressed last year and was simply forced to do too much. He won't have much luck against this Penn State defense, which again, is one of the best in the country.
Penn State is 31-0 in its last 31 meetings with Temple with its last loss coming in 1941. It beat Temple 30-13 at home last year while outgaining the Owls 366-248 for the game. The Nittany Lions rushed for 254 yards in a turnover fest that saw both QB's combine to throw six interceptions. A similar result can be expected in the 2015 meeting with a 17-point road victory for the Nittany Lions just about right.
Franklin is 15-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents. The talent gap between these teams is just enormous, but the spread isn't reflecting that, providing us with some nice value by laying the small number on the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State Saturday.
|
09-04-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels -152 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
25* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -152
The Los Angeles Angels realize that this series against the Texas Rangers is their biggest of the entire 2015 season. They trail the Rangers by 3.5 games for the final wild card spot in the American League, so it's now or never in this series for them. I'll gladly back them in Game 1.
Garrett Richards is 12-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 25 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 8-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 13 starts. Better yet, Richards is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in three career starts against Texas. The Angels are 6-0 in Richards' last six starts vs. Rangers.
Martin Perez is arguably the worst starter in the Rangers' rotation. He has gone 2-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in eight starts this year, unable to lock down a spot in the rotation because of his inconsistency. Perez is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in four road starts as well.
The Angels are 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last two seasons. The Angels are 14-3 in Richards' last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Los Angeles is 37-15 in Richards' last 52 starts as a favorite. Bet the Angels Friday.
|
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74 |
|
56-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
43 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* Baylor/SMU ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 74
Last year, these teams played to a 45-0 game that was 29 points less than Friday’s posted total of 74. I can see a similar result, or something in the 52-17 range in favor of Baylor, which would still be UNDER the total. I simply believe that both teams are going to be better defensively this year.
The reason for Baylor fans to be excited is because this is going to be Art Briles’ best defense yet. While the offense gets all the hype, it’s the defense that has made the most strides in recent years. The Bears gave up 23.5 points and 360 yards per game in 2013, and 25.5 points and 382 yards per game in 2014. Now they return nine starters on defense, and I expect them to put up their best numbers of the Briles era in 2015.
The Bears have the best defensive line in the Big 12 with all four starters returning, led by athletic freak Shawn Oakman at defensive end, who earned 1st-team All-Big 12 honors last year. The linebacker corps does lose two starters, but the entire secondary returns intact. A strong defensive line and a strong secondary gives SMU little chance of being successful here.
I don’t expect Baylor to be as potent offensively this year. Yes, it does return nine starters on offense as well, but it loses QB Bryce Petty to the NFL. I’m not sold on Seth Russell as being anywhere near the passer that Petty was. Russell only completed 56.5 percent of his passes last year and did not impress me at all in the limited action he received in place of an injury Petty.
Simply put, SMU was horrible in all phases last year. It was especially poor on offense, putting up 11.1 points and 269 yards per game. It averaged just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. I do expect it to be better under the guidance of first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson before coming here. But make no mistake, this SMU offense is still going to be one of the worst in the FBS.
One key factor here with backing the UNDER is that a blowout will lead to a very low-scoring second half. The same thing happened last year with Baylor jumping out to a 31-0 lead at half before calling off the dogs in the 45-0 win. I expect Baylor to take its foot off the gas late in this game as well.
SMU will be lucky to score 10-14 points in this one against this superior Baylor defense. The Bears will simply run out the clock in the 4th quarter and get away from the up-tempo attack that will have gotten them a big lead. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
09-03-15 |
Michigan +5 v. Utah |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* Michigan/Utah 2015 CFB Season Opener on Michigan +5
Brady Hoke did not get the most out the talent he had on hand at Michigan. The Wolverines went from 11 wins in his first season, to 8, 7 and 5 the next three years, which is simply unacceptable in Ann Arbor. That's why they brought in Jim Harbaugh, which was the biggest offseason hire at any program.
Harbaugh had success as a quarterback here, and he's won everywhere he's gone as a head coach. He went 29-6 at San Diego, 29-21 at Stanford, and 49-22-1 as the head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers. The guy is a proven winner who will get this program on the right track from Day 1.
Harbaugh steps into a great situation, too. He inherits 15 returning starters and 50 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners. Make no mistake about it, Harbaugh will get the most out of these talented players.
He has been known as an offensive guru, and he'll certainly improve an offense that put up just 20.9 points and 333 yards per game last year. Eight starters are back on offense, and he adds in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who started 25 games for the Hawkeyes over two seasons. It's not been announced whether Rudock or Shane Morris will start for competitive advantage reasons, but my best guess is Rudock.
To Hoke's credit, he did coach up the defense very well as the Wolverines allowed 22 or fewer points and 322 or fewer yards per game in three of his four seasons. This is a stop unit that returns seven starters after allowing just 311 yards per game last season. This will once again be one of the top defenses in the country because of the returning experience and talent on hand.
Utah comes into the season way overvalued. The Utes went 9-4 last season and finished with a winning record in Pac-12 play for the first time as a member of the conference. But they were actually outgained by 84.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play despite their 5-4 record, which was the worst yardage differential in the entire conference. All five of their Pac-12 wins came by 6 points or less as well.
Michigan is going to be highly motivated following a 10-26 home loss to the Utes last season. It actually outgained Utah 308-286 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential. It committed four turnovers in the game, which was its Achilles heel all season last year as it finished -16 in turnover differential. Harbaugh will demand that his quarterbacks take better care of the football, and the defense is sure to create more turnovers this year.
The biggest advantage for the Wolverines is that they have a bunch of new systems in place. They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Drevno, a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, and a new special teams coordinator in John Baxter. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham cannot use game film from last year to game plan for the Wolverines. I love the element of surprise that Michigan will have coming into this one. Plus, Michigan knows what Utah is going to do after playing the Utes last year. Utah's systems have not changed.
"It's just a hodgepodge of five, six or seven places," Whittingham told The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "We form the best-guess scenario. And that's what an opener is anyway, a best-guess scenario, we never really know. Even when you [face] a returning staff, there's still changes that come in the offseason in different schematics. But when you have a new staff, anything really is in the realm of possibility. We think we have a general idea of what to expect. You try to expose your players to everything you think they might see in fall camp. Build a game plan to accommodate all the possibilities."
Whittingham is 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah. Bet Michigan Thursday.
|
09-03-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -1 |
|
23-6 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
09-03-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -145 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-145 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -145
The Pittsburgh Pirates have now lost three straight games. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers tonight and look to avoid the sweep. After all, this has been one of the most resilient teams in baseball.
In fact, Pittsburgh has not lost four in a row since May 13-16. That's right, they've gone nearly four months without losing four straight games. That streak will remain intact today as the Pirates take care of business behind their ace on the mound.
Francisco Liriano is having another brilliant season, going 9-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.165 WHIP over 25 starts. The left-hander has been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts away from home. He has allowed just four earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.
The Pirates are 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Liriano is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. The Brewers are 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog. Take the Pirates Thursday.
|
09-02-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -141 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
4-9 |
Loss |
-141 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -141
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back losses. This has been one of the most resilient teams in baseball, refusing to go on extended losing streak. In fact, the last time they lost three in a row was all the way back on July 17-19. They've only lost three in a row twice since mid-May.
Jeff Locke is far from a dominant starter, but he's good enough to get the job done. His hast two road starts have been superb. Locke allowed two runs in 7 innings of a 7-2 win at Miami, and one run in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 win at New York. He'll be opposed by Zach Davies, who makes is season debut for the Brewers today.
Locke has gone 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee. Better yet, he has gone 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his last six starts against the Brewers. He has allowed three earned runs or less in all six starts, including two runs or fewer in five of them.
Plays on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite of -150 or more, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record are 49-10 (83.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pirates are 11-0 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Pirates Wednesday.
|
09-01-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -147 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-147 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -147
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the most resilient teams in baseball. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games following a loss, which have been few and far between. They had yesterday off following a loss to the Rockies last time out, and I look for them to bounce back with a win in Game 1 of this series with lowly Milwaukee.
It doesn't hurt that the Pirates send their ace to the mound tonight in Gerrit Cole, who is 15-7 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 26 starts. Cole has been his best on the road, going 7-4 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 13 starts away from home. The right-hander is also 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee.
Jimmy Nelson has pitched reasonably well in his first season as a full-time starter for the Brewers. He has gone 10-10 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 26 starts this season. But he has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in his last three starts. Nelson allowed five earned runs and 12 base runners in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Indians.
Milwaukee is 0-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +150 this season. The Pirates are 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 39-16 in Cole's last 55 starts. The Brewers are 15-42 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.
|
08-31-15 |
Los Angeles Angels -104 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
5-11 |
Loss |
-104 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -104
The Los Angeles Angels are in must-win mode from here on out. They are 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League after getting swept by the Indians last series. It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 1 of this series with the AL-worst Oakland A's (57-74).
Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball all season. Santiago is 7-8 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.202 WHIP over 25 starts and one relief appearance this year. But what really stands out to me is that he has never lost to the A's, going 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Felix Doubront has gone 1-1 with a fortunate 3.70 ERA in spite of a 1.429 WHIP over six starts and three relief appearances this season. He is nowhere near on Santiago's level, but he's getting treated like it with this line Monday. I'll gladly back the Angels with a lot to play for here at nearly even money.
Oakland is 0-7 (-9.4 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last two seasons. The A's are pretty tired right now after going to extra innings with the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Angels are 46-21 in their last 67 games as a road favorite. The A's are 15-37 in their last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Angels Monday.
|
08-30-15 |
Chicago Cubs -117 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* Cubs/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -117
The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight coming into this one. It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers to avoid the sweep and get back in the win column as they try and chase a playoff spot.
The last time they won, Jake Arrieta was the starter in an 8-5 win over the Giants. Arrieta has been their ace all season, and he's been nothing short of spectacular. The right-hander is 16-6 with a 2.22 ERA in 26 starts, 10-1 with a 1.94 ERA in 14 road starts, and 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last three outings.
There's no question that Arrieta is the better starter in this one. Alex Wood is 9-8 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 25 starts this season, and 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in eight home starts. Wood gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his only career start against the Cubs last year.
Wood is 1-7 (-8.6 Units) against the money line after four or more consecutive team wins over the last two seasons. Arrieta is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. Arrieta is 9-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Take this combined 18-0 system backing Arrieta and the Cubs straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Cubs Sunday.
|
08-30-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders |
|
30-23 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* Cardinals/Raiders NFLX ANNIHILATOR on Oakland PK
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-29-15 |
New York Yankees -1.5 v. Atlanta Braves |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)
The New York Yankees put an end to a 2-game skid with an emphatic 15-4 win over the Braves yesterday. The Braves even had to pitch a positional player. While the Yankees are playing for the AL East Title, the Braves have packed it in a long time ago. They are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall with nine of those losses coming by two runs or more.
Yankees rookie Luis Severino has lived up to the hype in limited action this season. He is 1-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.087 WHIP over four starts with 24 strikeouts in 23 innings. This guy is one of the top young prospects in the game and has carried over his success from the minors.
Matt Wisler has been a big disappointment for the Braves. Wisler is 5-4 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts.
Atlanta is 0-11 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.
|
08-29-15 |
Cleveland Browns v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 |
|
31-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-29-15 |
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 v. Dallas Cowboys |
Top |
28-14 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Vikings +1.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-28-15 |
Tennessee Titans +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs |
|
10-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Friday No-Brainer on Tennessee Titans +5.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-28-15 |
Los Angeles Angels +146 v. Cleveland Indians |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels +146
The Los Angeles Angels are showing some of their best value of the season tonight. They are 1/2-game back in the wild card standings with a ton to play for. The Indians are five games back and have little to play for at this point in the season.
Not only do the Angels have the better lineup in this one, I also believe they have the edge on the mound. Andrew Heaney is an underrated starter because he's a rookie. But he hasn't pitched like one, especially on the road. Indeed, Heaney is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in four road starts this year, and 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 11 starts overall.
There's no question that Danny Salazar has figured it out this season at 11-7 with a 3.30 ERA in 23 starts fro the Indians. But he has not fared well against the Angels, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts. Salazar allowed 6 runs in a 12-3 loss in his only career home start against the Angels in 2014.
The Angels are 8-3 in Heaney's 11 starts this season. Los Angeles is 7-2 in Heaney's last nine starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The Angels are 5-1 in Heaney's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 5-16 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter. Cleveland is only hitting .240 against lefties and scoring 3.3 runs per game this season. Bet the Angels Friday.
|
08-27-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-49) are showing great value today even on the run line as favorites against the Miami Marlins (51-76). The Marlins are 1-5 in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by two runs or more. That trend will continue tonight.
Gerrit Cole is one of the best starters in baseball. He has gone 14-7 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 12 road starts. Cole gave up two earned runs in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Marlins on May 27 in his only start against them in 2015.
Justin Nicolino has held his own in limited action this season for the Marlins, going 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts. But he's 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three home starts. Nicolino won't get any run support here as the Marlins have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games.
Miami is 11-20 against the run line (-14.2 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The Marlins are 4-16 against the run line (-14.7 Units) after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 11-1 in Cole's last 12 starts vs. NL East foes. Bet the Pirates on the Run Line Thursday.
|
08-26-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks +100 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks +100
The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday as they host the St. Louis Cardinals once again. They have lost the first two games of this series, but I believe they have the edge on the mound in Game 3 and will stop the bleeding as a result.
Patrick Corbin has gone 3-3 with a 4.09 ERA in nine starts this season. But he has been a great starter at home in his career, including this year. Corbin is 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.130 WHIP In four home starts with 23 strikeouts over 23 innings pitched and only two homers allowed.
John Lackey has been great at home this season for the Cardinals as well, but that's a non-factor here. What matters is that Lackey is 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 12 road starts. The Cardinals are 3-9 in Lackey's 12 road starts this season as well.
Lackey is 1-9 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 3-13 in Lackey's last 16 road starts overall. Arizona is 8-1 in Corbin's last nine starts vs. NL Central opponents. Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.
|
08-25-15 |
Los Angeles Angels -113 v. Detroit Tigers |
Top |
8-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* AL Tuesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -113
The Los Angeles Angels were just swept by the hottest team in baseball in the Toronto Blue Jays in their last series to fall out of the final wild card spot. They are now 1.5 games behind the Rangers. They had Monday off to regroup and refocus going into this series with the Detroit Tigers.
There has been plenty of speculation that the situation is not good in the Tigers' clubhouse right now. They have lost four straight to fall 5.5 games back in the wild card race. They played Monday in a 5-12 loss to the Reds to boot, which put an end to the Reds' 9-game losing streak. So, the Angels will be the fresher team after having yesterday off while the Tigers did not.
Jered Weaver has a 4.34 ERA on the season in spite of a very solid 1.184 WHIP. He has stepped up his game of late, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in his last three starts. Weaver is also 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts against Detroit, allowing 10 earned runs in 33 innings.
Alfredo Simon sports a 4.52 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 23 starts this season in spite of his 11-7 record, which has been aided by great run support. But Simon has never beaten the Angels, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in two career starts against them.
The Angels are 44-21 in their last 65 games as a road favorite. Los Angeles is 69-27 in Weaver's last 96 starts as a favorite. The Tigers are 3-14 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 14-3 against Detroit over the past three seasons. Bet the Angels Tuesday.
|
08-24-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -116 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -116
We are getting the best team in baseball at a very generous price Monday. The St. Louis Cardinals had lost two straight before salvaging the series with a 10-3 win over the Padres yesterday. They will be motivated to get off to a much better start in this series against Arizona.
The Cardinals have the clear advantage on the mound in this one behind Lance Lynn, who is 9-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 23 starts this season. Lynn has never lost to the Diamondbacks, going 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in six career starts against them as well.
Robby Ray is 3-9 with a respectable 3.37 ERA in 15 starts for Arizona. However, he has not been sharp at home, going 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in six home starts. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Ray's six home starts this season.
The Cardinals are 11-1 in Lynn's last 12 Monday starts. Rays is 0-7 (-7.4 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. Ray is 0-8 (-8.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Ray is 0-7 (-7.9 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons. These five trends combine for a 39-1 system backing St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Monday.
|
08-23-15 |
St Louis Rams +2.5 v. Tennessee Titans |
|
14-27 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Sunday No-Brainer on St. Louis Rams +2.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-23-15 |
New York Mets -119 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -119
The New York Mets have scored 14 runs in each of the first two games of this series with Colorado. I look for the Mets to stay red hot at the plate and to get into the Rockies' bullpen early and often in this one once again.
Logan Verrett is getting a chance to make his first start of the season after pitching tremendously out of the bullpen thus far. Verrett has posted a 0.68 ERA and 0.602 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings, allowing just one run and eight base runners while striking out 12.
David Hale has been the worst starter for Colorado this season. He is 3-4 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in nine starts this year, including 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in his last three. Hale has posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in two career starts against New York as well.
The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite. New York is 51-16 in its last 67 games as a favorite. The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games with a total set of 11 or higher. The Rockies are 0-6 in Hale's last six starts. Colorado is 2-10 in its last 12 games overall. Bet the Mets Sunday.
|
08-22-15 |
New York Mets -121 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
14-9 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -121
The New York Mets have a lot to play for right now. They are trying to win the NL East, and they are doing a good job of it at 65-56. The Mets won 14-9 yesterday to really put a hurting on Colorado's bullpen. The Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.
Jon Niese has been at his best on the road with a 2.84 ERA in 11 road starts. Niese is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts as well. He'll be opposed by Chris Rusin, who is 4-5 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.506 WHIP in 14 starts and four relief appearances in 2015.
The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a road favorite. The Mets are 50-16 in their last 66 games as a favorite. The Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rockies are 0-6 in Rusin's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Mets Saturday.
|
08-22-15 |
Miami Dolphins v. Carolina Panthers |
|
30-31 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Saturday No-Brainer on Miami Dolphins PK
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-21-15 |
Atlanta Falcons +2 v. NY Jets |
|
22-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons +2
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-21-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers -122 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-122 |
14 h 22 m |
Show
|
25* American League GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -122
The Detroit Tigers are rolling now that they have a healthy Miguel Cabrera back in the middle of their lineup. They have won four of five with their only loss coming by a run. They are also 3-0 in their last three games, which haven't even been close as they've outscored the opposition 29-16 in the process.
Now Justin Verlander has found it again. He has pitched 13 innings against Houston and Boston in his last two starts without allowing a single earned run and striking out 14. Verlander has a 0.00 ERA in those two starts. The right-hander is also 9-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 16 career starts against Texas.
Colby Lewis is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. Lewis is 13-5 in spite of a 4.49 ERA on the season. He sports a 4.95 ERA in his last three starts as well. But what really stands out to me is that Lewis is 3-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.
Plays against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 74-30 (71.2%, +43.6 units) over the last five seasons.
The Rangers are 2-10 in Lewis' last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 67-32 in Verlander's last 99 starts as a home favorite. Detroit is 7-2 in Verlander's last nine starts vs. Texas. The Rangers are 0-4 in the last four meetings. Bet the Tigers Friday.
|
08-20-15 |
Buffalo Bills +3 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
11-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Buffalo Bills +3
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-20-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers -106 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -106
The Detroit Tigers now have Miguel Cabrera back and are a completely different team with him. They scored 25 runs with 40 hits at Wrigley Field in their two-game sweep of the Cubs the past two days. I look for them to stay red hot at the plate against the Rangers tonight.
Alfredo Simon has been a very good starter for the Tigers at home this season. SImon has gone 4-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 10 starts in Detroit with the Tigers going 7-3 in those contests. This is a team that has some momentum now and needs to make a run if it wants to make the postseason.
The Rangers are being overvalued due to winning five of their last six. Martin Perez simply isn't very good. He's 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in six starts this season. Perez is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA in his lone career start against Detroit.
Simon is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
|
08-19-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -132 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Wednesday Night Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Angels -132
I have backed the Angels with success each of the past two nights as the oddsmakers have failed to give them the credit they deserve. The Angels should be closer to a -200 favorite tonight, but instead we're getting them at -132, and we'll take advantage again.
Jered Weaver has a 4.60 ERA in spite of a 1.207 WHIP this season, so he has been unlucky to have a 4-9 record. But Weaver has been at his best at home, going 2-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in seven starts. What stands out most to me, though, is that Weaver is 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago.
The White Sox have lost four of five and have little to play for at this point, unlike the Angels. Jeff Samardzija is pitching like he doesn't care right now. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 12.91 ERA and 1.890 WHIP in his last three starts. Samardzija is also 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles.
Weaver is 23-4 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season for his career. The White Sox are 15-37 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record, and 0-6 in their last six road games overall. The Angels are 37-18 in their last 55 home games. Los Angeles is 46-16 in Weaver's last 62 home starts. The Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 home meetings with the White Sox. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Weaver's last five starts vs. Chicago. Bet the Angels Wednesday.
|
08-18-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -163 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -163
I am willing to lay the big juice on the Angels today because I believe they are going to get on a roll now that they are back home from an awful 7-game road trip where they went 1-6. I backed them with success last night in Game 1 of this series with Chicago, and I'll take them again in Game 2 tonight.
The Angels once again have a big edge on the mound behind Garrett Richards, who is 11-9 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Richards has been superb at home, going 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 11 starts in Los Angeles. Richards is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in one career start against Chicago as well.
John Danks has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last few years as he just hasn't recovered from injury. The left-hander is 6-9 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 22 starts this season. He has been awful on the road, going 2-6 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.
The White Sox are 16-46 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 0-5 in their last five road games overall. Chicago is 1-7 in Danks' last eight road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 25-8 in their last 33 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Angels are 53-21 in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Los Angeles is 15-3 in Richards' last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Angels Tuesday.
|
08-17-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -137 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -137
The Los Angeles Angels are desperate for a victory. They just finished off a 1-6 road stretch, but now they return home looking to get back on track. They are still just 3.5 games out of first place in the AL West and 1/2 game out of the final wild card spot.
The Angels have a massive edge on the mound in this one. Rookie Andrew Heaney has been spectacular in 2015, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five home starts, and the Angels are 5-0 in those five contests.
Carlos Rodon has not pitched well at all for the White Sox. The left-hander is 5-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 16 starts and three relief appearances in 2015. Rodon is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in his last three starts as well.
The White Sox are 16-45 in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Chicago is 0-4 in its last four road games. The Angels are 27-9 in their last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 52-21 in its last 73 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Angels are 7-1 in Heaney's last eight starts as a favorite. Bet the Angels Monday.
|
08-16-15 |
Los Angeles Angels +120 v. Kansas City Royals |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
20* Angels/Royals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +120
The Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost five of their last six and are now just 1/2 game ahead of the Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League. It's safe to say that they need to kick it in gear here soon.
The Angels clearly have the edge on the mound today and shouldn't be underdogs. Hector Santiago is 7-6 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 22 starts and one relief appearance in 2015. Santiago owns the Royals, going 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in five career starts against them.
Yordano Ventura is one of the most overrated starters in baseball. The right-hander is 7-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three. The Royals have lost 10 of his 18 starts this year.
The Angels are 21-8 in their last 29 during game 4 of a series. Los Angeles is 5-1 in its last six Sunday games. The Angels are 6-2 in Santiago's last eight starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Royals are 2-6 in Ventura's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Angels Sunday.
|
08-15-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Houston Texans -2.5 |
|
10-23 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Saturday No-Brainer on Houston Texans -2.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-15-15 |
Chicago Cubs -117 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -117
I'm going to continue to ride the red-hot Chicago Cubs Saturday at a very generous price against the Chicago White Sox. They have won eight straight to improve to 14-1 in their last 15 games overall to move within 1.5 games of Pittsburgh for the top wild-card spot.
Now the Cubs send their best starter to the mound in Jake Arrieta, who has gone 13-6 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 23 starts, including 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 12 road starts. Arrieta sports a 1.23 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing two runs or fewer in nine of them.
Jose Quintana is having a fine season for the White Sox at 6-9 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 23 starts. However, he is nowhere near on Arrieta's level and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here Saturday. Arrieta gave up one run and two hits while tossing a complete game in a 3-1 win over the White Sox on July 12.
The Cubs are 7-0 in their last seven games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago is 7-0 in Arrieta's last seven starts as a road favorite. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five interleague home games. The Cubs are 8-0 in their last eight games overall. These five trends combine for a 33-0 system backing the Cubs. Bet the Cubs Saturday.
|
08-14-15 |
St Louis Rams +1.5 v. Oakland Raiders |
|
3-18 |
Loss |
-107 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Friday ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Rams +1.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-14-15 |
Chicago Cubs -107 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* Cubs/White Sox Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -107
The Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in baseball, right alongside the Toronto Blue Jays. We are getting them at an excellent price Friday considering they are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall. They have won nine of those 13 games by 2 runs or more as well.
The Cubs have the edge on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result. Kyle Hendricks is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 22 starts this year. One of those starts came against the White Sox on July 10. Hendricks pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only five base runners.
Jeff Samardzija is not having a very good season. He is 8-7 with a 4.62 ERA in 23 starts. Samardzija has been awful of late, going 1-2 with a 10.38 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 20 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch.
Hendricks is 8-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons. Samardzija is 2-14 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cubs Friday.
|
08-13-15 |
Los Angeles Angels -110 v. Kansas City Royals |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -110
Following three straight losses, the Los Angeles Angels are now only 1.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for the final wild card spot in the American League. It's safe to say that the Angels are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 1 of this series with the Kansas City Royals Thursday.
I believe they'll get back in the win column due to their massive edge on the mound. Garrett Richards is 11-9 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has returned from injury this season and has been his same dominant self.
Jeremy Guthrie is by far the weak link in Kansas City's rotation. The right-hander is 8-7 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.584 WHIP in 21 starts, including 1-2 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.944 WHIP in his last three. Guthrie has given up 15 runs over 21 innings in his last three starts against the Angels.
The Angels are 24-9 in Richards' last 33 starts as a favorite. Los Angeles is 7-1 in Richards' last eight starts during Game 1 of a series. Los Angeles is 41-18 in its last 59 games as a favorite. The Royals are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog. Bet the Angels Thursday.
|
08-13-15 |
Miami Dolphins +1.5 v. Chicago Bears |
|
10-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Miami Dolphins +1.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-12-15 |
Los Angeles Angels -123 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-123 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* AL Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Angels -123
The Los Angeles Angels (59-53) have lost the first two games of this series to the Chicago White Sox, and now they're only two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League. I look for them to bounce back behind a motivated effort in Game 3 tonight.
It also helps that the Angels have a massive edge on the mound. Andrew Heaney has been brilliant this season, going 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in eight starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three starts away from home.
John Danks remains one of the worst starters in baseball as he's never been able to recover from injury and return to his former self. The left-hander is 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.438 WHIP In 21 starts, including 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in his last three.
The Angels are 43-20 in their last 63 games as a road favorite. Los ANgeles is 7-0 in Heaney's last seven starts as a favorite. The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-4 in Danks' last five starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Bet the Angels Wednesday.
|
08-11-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Chicago Cubs -129 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -129
We are getting the Chicago Cubs, who have everything to play for, at a great price at home Tuesday. They have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to move 3.5 games ahead of the Giants for the final wild card spot. They now take on the Milwaukee Brewers (48-65) and won't let up.
Dan Haren was a nice addition for the Cubs prior to the trade deadline. He has gone 7-7 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 22 starts, including 4-3 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 11 home starts. Haren is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.
Taylor Jungmann has pitched well for the Brewers in limited action this season, going 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 11 starts. But with such a small sample size, he's clearly overvalued. In his lone start against the Cubs on July 31, Jungmann allowed three runs and nine base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 loss.
The Brewers are 18-47 in their last 65 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150. TheCubs are 9-0 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Cubs Tuesday.
|
08-10-15 |
Baltimore Orioles -118 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -118
The Baltimore Orioles are the first team out of the final wild card spot in the American League. They are three games back of the Angels for that spot. They know this is big series with Seattle, which has little to play for at eight games out of the wild card.
Baltimore has a big edge on the mound today and should be a bigger favorite as a result. Wei-Yin Chen is 5-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.200 WHIP In 21 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.15 ERA in eight road starts. Chen is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle as well.
Vidal Nuno has only made one start this year on August 4, giving up three earned runs and two homers in 3 2/3 innings against Colorado. Nuno is 0-1 with a 5.69 ERA in one career start against Baltimore. He is 3-15 with a 3.99 ERA in his three-year career.
Nuno is 2-14 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. Baltimore is 6-0 in Chen's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 6-23 in their last 29 games following a win. Bet the Orioles Monday.
|
08-09-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Minnesota Vikings |
|
3-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Steelers/Vikings NFL Hall of Fame Game No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5
No Analysis For Preseason. Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.
|
08-09-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays +130 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
130 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays +130
The Toronto Blue Jays are showing excellent value as big road underdogs to the New York Yankees today. Since making the trades for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Blue Jays have been on an absolute tear. They have won seven straight and 10 of 11 to pull within 2.5 games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East. They are 10-0 when Tulowitzki starts.
The Blue Jays will cap off the series sweep Sunday behind Marco Estrada, who has been one of the most pleasant surprises on the entire team in 2015. Estrada is 9-6 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 17 starts and six relief appearances.
Masahiro Tanaka is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. Tanaka is a big name, but he's 8-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 4.23 ERA in nine home starts. He also sports a 4.58 ERA in his last three outing. Tanaka gave up 5 runs over 4 innings in a 1-6 loss to the Blue Jays in his only start against them in 2015.
The Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Toronto is 9-3 in Estrada's last 12 starts, including 4-0 in his last four starts during Game 3 of a series. The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Blue Jays Sunday.
|
08-08-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -141 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
6-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Blue Jays -141
Since making the trades for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Toronto Blue Jays have been on an absolute tear. They have won six straight and nine of 10 to pull within 3.5 games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East. They are 9-0 when Tulowitzki starts. They took Game 1 in extra innings last night, and now I look for them to take Game 2 as well due to their edge on the mound.
Price is 10-4 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 22 starts this season, putting up the kind of numbers that would warrant the AL Cy Young award. His first start with Toronto was a massive success as he held the Twins to one run and three hits while striking out 11 over 8 innings of a 5-1 victory on August 3.
Ivan Nova has put up solid numbers in limited action for the Yankees, going 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in seven starts. However, Nova clearly does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays. He has posted a 4.62 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in nine career starts against them, and he's never faced a Blue Jays' lineup as potent as this 2015 version.
The Blue Jays are 24-9 in their last 33 vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 6-0 in its last six games overall. The Yankees are 0-5 in Nova's last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Blue Jays Saturday.
|
08-07-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays +104 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
104 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays +104
Since making the trades for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Toronto Blue Jays have been on an absolute tear. They have won five straight and eight of nine to pull within 4.5 games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East. Now they get to face those Yankees for a 3-game set starting Friday.
Toronto has the clear edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series behind R.A. Dickey. While he's just 6-10 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 22 starts this season, Dickey has been untouchable of late. He is 3-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.772 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts as well.
Plus, Dickey is 5-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 12 career starts against New York. He has allowed just two earned runs and 13 base runners over 14 1/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees in 2015.
He's up against Nathan Eovaldi, who is very fortunate to have an 11-2 record in spite of a 4.30 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 21 starts this year. That 11-2 record clearly has him overvalued. The Blue Jays are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blue Jays Friday.
|
08-06-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Washington Nationals -148 |
Top |
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -148
The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost five of their last six to fall two games back of the New York Mets in the NL East, including yesterday's 11-4 loss to the Diamondbacks where they had to pitch a position player in the end to preserve their bullpen.
With the motivation and the edge the Nationals have on the mound today, they should be much bigger favorites. Joe Ross has been brilliant this season, going 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.923 WHIP over six starts with 40 strikeouts in 39 innings. He is arguably the Nationals' second-best starter behind Scherzer.
Jeremy Hellickson has been awful over the last several years. Hellickson has gone 7-7 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 20 starts, including 2-4 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 10 road starts. Hellickson gave up 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-9 loss to the Nationals on May 13 this year in his lone career start against them.
The Diamondbacks are 19-47 in their last 66 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Diamondbacks are 12-40 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Arizona is 1-4 in Hellickson's last five road starts. The Nationals are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 4 of a series. Washington is 37-17 in its last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Nationals Thursday.
|
08-05-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels -113 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
20* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -113
The Los Angeles Angels are extremely motivated for a victory right now. They have gone 2-10 in their last 12 games overall to really put their wild card chances in jeopardy, let alone their chances of winning the AL West.
I'll back one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Hector Santiago to get the job done today at a great price. Santiago is 7-5 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 20 starts, including 3-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 12 home starts.
Danny Salazar is having a fine season for the Indians as well, going 9-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 19 starts. But Salazar is 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.
The Indians are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Angels are 38-15 in their last 53 games as a favorite. The Angels are 4-0 in Santiago's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Angels Wednesday.
|
08-04-15 |
Chicago Cubs -131 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -131
The Chicago Cubs are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates today. They have won five straight coming in and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now.
The Cubs have the clear edge on the mound in this one. Jake Arrieta is 11-6 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 21 starts, including 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 11 road starts. Arrieta is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh.
J.A. Happ is 4-6 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 20 starts this season between Seattle and Pittsburgh. Happ has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.905 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.
The Cubs are 6-0 in Arrieta's last 6 starts as a road favorite. The Pirates are 5-11 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arrieta is 7-0 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Bet the Cubs Tuesday.
|
08-02-15 |
Washington Nationals +127 v. New York Mets |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
20* Nationals/Mets ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Washington +126
The Washington Nationals are going to be highly motivated for a win over the New York Mets after losing the first two games of this series. They will want to avoid the sweep, especially since they are only one game ahead of the Mets now after losing two straight excruciating one-run games.
Getting starter Jordan Zimmerman at this kind of price is a gift from oddsmakers. The right-hander has gone 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA in 21 starts this season. Zimmerman owns the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 22 career starts against them. His teams are 16-6 in those meetings. He has allowed only 4 earned runs over 26 innings in his last four starts against them.
There's no question that Noah Syndergaard has a bright future. He has gone 5-5 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 14 starts, but he's being overvalued here. He allowed 10 base runners in only 5 innings of a 3-4 loss in his lone start against Washington on July 22.
The Nationals are 11-2 in Zimmermann's last 13 starts during game 3 of a series. Washington is 8-1 in Zimmerman's last nine Sunday starts. The Nationals are 70-32 in Zimmermann's last 102 starts overall. Washington is 38-14 in its last 52 meetings in New York. The Nationals are 13-3 in Zimmermann's last 16 starts vs. Mets. Bet the Nationals Sunday.
|
08-01-15 |
Chicago Cubs -118 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118
I've backed the Chicago Cubs with success each of the past two days in a 5-2 victory Thursday and a 4-1 triumph Friday. Another blowout victory can be expected Saturday as we are once again getting the Cubs at a tremendous price.
The Cubs have everything to play for right now as they are 55-47 and only one game back in the NL wild card race. The Brewers, meanwhile, are 44-60 and 13 games back. The Brewers are in a poor state of mind right now as they just traded three of their best players in Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez and Mike Fiers. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.
Chicago has the clear edge on the mound. Kyle Hendricks is 4-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 20 starts this year. He'll be opposed by Matt Garza, who is 5-11 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 18 starts and one relief appearance. Garza is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four career starts against Chicago.
Hendricks is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee. Hendricks is 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons. The Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Cubs Saturday.
|
07-31-15 |
Chicago Cubs -101 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -101
The Chicago Cubs are actually underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers when they shouldn't be tonight. The Cubs are squarely in the wild-card race just two games back, while the Brewers are out of it 13 games back. The Brewers are 2-7 in their last nine games overall and are trading away their players, which is a distraction.
Jason Hammel has resurrected his career in Chicago the past two seasons. Hammel has gone 5-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 20 starts this year. But what stands out to me is that Hammels has never lost to the Brewers, going 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in eight career starts against them.
There's no denying that Taylor Jungmann is having a fine season for Milwaukee. But he has made just nine starts this year, and the more tape teams get on him, the harder they're going to hit him sooner rather than later. Jungmann's numbers are the reason the Brewers are favored here when they shouldn't be.
The Cubs are 7-1 in Hammel's last eight starts during game 2 of a series. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight games against a right-handed starter. The Brewers are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet the Cubs Friday.
|
07-30-15 |
Chicago Cubs -137 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -137
The Chicago Cubs sit 2.5 games behind the final wild card spot in the National League. While they have everything to play for, the Milwaukee Brewers have recently seen a couple of their players traded, and that has them lacking motivation. The Brewers are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall.
Jake Arrieta is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The right-hander has gone 11-6 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.002 WHIP In 20 starts, 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts. Arrieta sports a 3.22 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.
Jimmy Nelson is 8-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in 20 starts this season for Milwaukee. Nelson clearly does not enjoy facing the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in four career starts against them.
The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Chicago is 6-1 in Arrieta's last seven road starts. The Cubs are 5-0 in Arrieta's last five starts as a road favorite. The Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Brewers are 3-9 in Nelson's last 12 home starts. Bet the Cubs Thursday.
|
07-29-15 |
Washington Nationals -105 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
25* NL East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -105
The Washington Nationals have lost two straight and four of five. They have faced Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Gerrit Cole and Jose Fernandez during this stretch, which or four of the best starters in baseball. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the lowly Marlins.
Doug Fister certainly isn't having his best season, but he's now undervalued as a result. He now gets to face one of the worst lineups in baseball in Miami, which is still without Giancarlo Stanton. Fister is 2-0 (3-0 money line) with a 1.14 ERA and 0.760 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins, having never lost to them.
Tom Koehler has overachieved this season for the Marlins and is overvalued as a result. Koehler is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts against Washington. In his last start against the Nationals on May 6, he allowed five earned runs and three homers in six innings of a 5-7 loss.
Fister is 13-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 65-28 in their last 93 Wednesday games. Washington is 20-8 in its last 28 vs. NL East foes. The Marlins are 0-6 in Koehler's last six Wednesday starts. Washington is 19-8 in Fister's last 27 starts as a favorite. Bet the Nationals Wednesday.
|
07-28-15 |
Detroit Tigers -118 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
Top |
2-10 |
Loss |
-118 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -118
The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a win today. They have lost two straight and four of their last five to fall further behind in the AL wild-card race. Look for them to get a win against the Tampa Bay Rays today with their ace on the mound.
At 9-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 20 starts this season, David Price is a legitimate AL Cy Young contender. He has gone 6-1 with a 1.90 ERA in 10 road starts, and 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA in his last three starts. Price faced his former team in the Rays once, allowing one unearned run and one hit in eight innings of a 1-0 loss on August 21 of last year.
Jake Odorizzi is having a fine season overall, going 5-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 15 starts for the Rays, but he's not on Price's level. Also, Odorizzi has struggled of late, giving up 8 earned runs and 18 base runners over 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts.
The Rays are 0-7 in Odorizzi's last seven starts vs. AL Central opponents. Tampa Bay is 1-9 in its last 10 vs. AL Central foes overall. The Rays are 8-17 in their last 25 games overall. The Tigers are 15-5 in Price's last 20 starts, including 8-2 in his last 10 road starts.
Price is 14-1 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons. Price is 11-0 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.
|
07-27-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -107 |
Top |
9-4 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -107
The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory today when they host the AL Central-leading Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series. They have lost four in a row coming in after getting swept by the White Sox over the weekend.
Cody Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Indians this year. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in five starts, including 1-0 with a 0.63 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in two home starts. Anderson will be facing the Royals for the first time.
Edinson Volquez is having a fine season in Kansas City, going 9-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 20 starts, and 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in nine road starts. However, Volquez is 1-2 with an 11.47 ERA and 2.624 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland.
Cleveland is 27-12 (+14.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last two seasons. Kansas City is 2-11 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season. The Indians are 4-1 in Anderson's last five starts. Bet the Indians Monday.
|
07-26-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -140 |
Top |
1-11 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
20* Tigers/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston -140
Both the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox have really been struggling of late. The Red Sox will be motivated for a victory tonight on National TV, and I expect them to get it due to the advantage they have on the mound in this one.
Eduardo Rodriquez has at least been serviceable for the Red Sox, going 5-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 10 starts with 46 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings. This will be his first career start against the Tigers, who remain without Miguel Cabrera.
Shane Greene has been nothing short of awful this year. He has gone 4-7 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in 15 starts, 2-4 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in seven road starts, and 0-2 with a 12.40 ERA and 2.107 WHIP in his last three starts.
Greene is also 0-1 with an 11.04 ERA and 2.316 WHIP in two career starts against Boston, allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 7 1/3 innings. Boston is 10-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. Bet the Red Sox Sunday.
|
07-25-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -126 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-126 |
15 h 33 m |
Show
|
20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -126
The Boston Red Sox finally put an end to their eight-game losing streak with a win in Game 1 of this series over the Detroit Tigers. They had a brutal 7-game road trip against the Angels and Astros, but they are back home now. Look for them to put together a winning streak by taking Game 2 as well against the Miguel Cabrera-less Tigers.
Boston has the clear advantage on the mound in this one. Steven Wright has gone 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in five starts and seven relief appearances this year. Wright is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in two home starts. He has never faced the Tigers, which gives him a competitive advantage.
Alfredo Simon is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 18 starts for Detroit, and 1-1 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.268 WHIP in his last three. Simon has pitched well at home, but he's been awful on the road, going 4-4 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in nine starts away from home. Simon is also 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.111 WHIP in two career starts against Boston.
The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Detroit is 1-5 in Simon's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in Boston. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.
|
07-24-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -134 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -134
Getting an ace of Felix Hernandez's caliber at home at this kind of price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Hernandez is having another AL Cy Young-caliber season, going 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starters against the Blue Jays.
Drew Hutchison is one of the most overrated starters in baseball due to his 9-2 record this season. He sports a 5.19 ERA and 1.471 WHIP with this fortunate 9-2 record, which is the result of great run support. Hutchison has been awful on the road, going 2-1 in spite of an 8.81 ERA and 1.979 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.
Toronto is 0-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season. The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Mariners Friday.
|
07-23-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Cleveland Indians -133 |
Top |
8-1 |
Loss |
-133 |
14 h 13 m |
Show
|
20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -133
The Cleveland Indians (45-48) are looking to make a push in the second half. They have won three of their last four games and will be a dangerous team going forward. The Chicago White Sox (42-50) are going in the opposite direction, losers of four straight and six of their last seven.
I believe the Indians have the edge on the mound tonight. Trevor Bauer is 8-6 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 18 starts this year with 107 K's in 109 1/3 innings. But what really stands out is that Bauer is 2-0 (4-1 money line) with a 2.60 ERA in five career starts against Chicago. He has allowed only 3 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings in three starts against the White Sox in 2015 alone.
Jeff Samardzija has to have a hard time focusing right now with all of the trade rumors surrounding him. The right-hander has gone 6-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 19 starts this year, but 2-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 10 road starts.
The White Sox are 10-25 in their last 35 overall. Chicago is 0-7 in its last seven road games vs. a right-handed starters. The White Sox are 0-4 in Samardzija's last four starts as an underdog. The Indians are 71-34 in their last 105 home games vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-2 in Bauer's last nine home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 5-17 in their last 22 trips to Cleveland. Bet the Indians Thursday.
|
07-22-15 |
Baltimore Orioles +110 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +110
The Baltimore Orioles (46-46) lost Game 1 of this series to the New York Yankees (51-41) 3-2 last night to fall five games behind them in the AL East. Look for the Orioles to come back motivated for a win tonight in Game 2.
Kevin Gausman has only made three starts this season. Two have been dominant as he allowed 2 earned runs over 11 1/3 innings to Toronto and Texas, but he was rocked by Minnesota. However, Gausman has owned the Yankees, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 17 innings.
Ivan Nova has pitched decently in limited action for the Yankees as well with a 3.42 ERA and 1.352 WHIP over four starts, but he's 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three. Nova has posted a 5.17 ERA in 12 career starts against Baltimore. In his last two starts against the Orioles, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.
The Orioles are 11-5 in their last 16 games as an underdog. The Yankees are 1-4 in Nova's last five starts. New York is 1-6 in Nova's last seven starts vs. AL East opponents. Bet the Orioles Wednesday.
|
07-21-15 |
Baltimore Orioles +110 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles +110
The Baltimore Orioles (46-45) are chasing the New York Yankees (50-41) for first place in the AL East. This is a big series for them, making Game 1 that much more important. I look for the Orioles to take this game thanks to the edge they have on the mound.
Wei-Yin Chen is in the midst of the best season of his career. He has gone 4-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 17 starts for the Orioles, including 1-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in five road starts. Chen has faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing only three earned runs and 11 base runners in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA.
The Yankees send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound. The right-hander is 9-2 in spite of a 4.50 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 18 starts. He has simply been lucky with the amount of run support he has received. Eovaldi has faced the Orioles twice this season, posting a 4.22 ERA and 1.874 WHIP while allowing five earned runs, 20 base runners and three homers in 10 2/3 innings.
The Orioles are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Baltimore is 9-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% over the last two seasons. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.
|
07-20-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays -129 v. Philadelphia Phillies |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-129 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -129
Good value here with the Tampa Bay Rays (47-47) as small road favorites over the lowly Philadelphia Phillies (32-62). The Rays know that this series is huge for them to get back into AL East contention. Meanwhile, the Phillies are overvalued after a rare 3-game sweep of the Marlins last series.
Matt Moore is one of the most talented young starters in the game today. He has been held back by injury, and he has posted poor numbers in limited action since returning to make three starts this year. But there's no doubt he is the better starter tonight in thsi match-up.
Philadelphia will give the ball to David Buchanan, who is 0-5 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.854 WHIP in six starts. He has been their worst starter, and he has been particularly poor at home. Buchanan is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA in two home starts this year.
Moore is 10-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons. Moore is 18-3 (+14.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last two seasons. The Phillies are 7-19 in Buchanan's last 26 starts. The Rays are 15-5 in Moore's last 20 road starts. Bet the Rays Monday.
|
07-19-15 |
San Francisco Giants -110 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -110
The defending champion San Francisco Giants were 43-43 heading into their final series before the All-Star Break. They have won five straight since thanks to an offense that is finally healthy and clicking. The Giants have scored a combined 41 runs during their 5-game winning streak for an average of 8.2 per game.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are going in the other direction. They have lost five in a row to drop to 42-47 on the year and nowhere near the wild-card race. Now they'll throw Patrick Corbin, who is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in two starts this season since returning from injury last year.
Madison Bumgarner remains one of the best starters in baseball and should be getting more respect here. He is 9-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.109 WHIP In 18 starts with 121 K's in 119 innings. The left-hander is 7-5 with a 2.69 ERA in 20 career starts against Arizona. Corbin is 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.
Bumgarner is 16-1 (+14.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Arizona is 9-34 (-22.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 games after losing the first two games of a series. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|
07-18-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -128 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
5-8 |
Loss |
-128 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Pirates -128
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their first game back from the All-Star Break yesterday to the Milwaukee Brewers. I expect them to bounce back today. It was a rare loss recently for the Pirates, who have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.
Francisco Liriano has been one of the best starters in the National League in 2015. He has gone 5-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 18 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three. Liriano has been at his best on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in eight starts away from home.
Jimmy Nelson hasn't been nearly as effective as Liriano this season. Nelson is 6-9 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP In 18 starts this year. He is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers for the 39-52 Brewers today.
The Pirates are 35-16 in their last 51 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Liriano's last five starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 4-0 in Liriano's last four starts overall. The Brewers are 1-5 in Nelson's last six home starts. Milwaukee is 8-25 in their last 33 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet the Pirates Saturday.
|
07-17-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays +134 v. Toronto Blue Jays |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +134
The Tampa Bay Rays were reeling right before the All-Star Break. However, they swept the Astros in their final series, and now they come out of the break at 46-45 and with some momentum. I believe they will carry that momentum into this series with the Blue Jays, who have lost four of five.
The Rays clearly have the edge on the mound in this one and should not be dogs as a result. Jake Odorizzi is having a very good season, going 5-5 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 13 starts. He has pitched 10 scoreless innings over his last two. Plus, Odorizzi has proven he can handle this Toronto lineup, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.815 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.
Drew Hutchison is extremely fortunate to have an 8-2 record in spite of a 5.33 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 18 starts this season. He has simply been getting unreal run support. Hutchison has allowed 9 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts. Plus, he's 3-2 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in six career starts against Tampa Bay.
The Blue Jays are 3-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season. The Rays are 4-0 in Odorizzi's last four starts as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 7-2 in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-8 in their last eight after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Rays Friday.
|
07-12-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Cards/Pirates ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -165
The Pittsburgh Pirates are just 3.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central lead. They want to inch closer before the All-Star Break with another win Sunday and a 3-1 series victory to make a statement going into the second half.
Francisco Liriano has clearly revived his career in Pittsburgh. The left-hander is 5-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 17 starts with 119 K's in 108 1/3 innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three starts. Liriano is 4-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 11 career starts against St. Louis as well.
Tim Cooney is no more than a spot starter for the Cardinals. He has only made three starts this season and hasn't been very effective in them. Cooney has posted a 3.95 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings pitched. He is only averaging 4.6 innings per start. He won't be able to go very deep into this game as the Pirates will get to St. Louis' bullpen early. That's big considering these teams played 14 innings yesterday.
Pittsburgh is 15-3 (+11.1 Units) against the money line after a one run win this season. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Pirates are 35-16 in their last 51 overall. Pittsburgh is 62-29 in its last 91 home games. Bet the Pirates Sunday.
|
07-11-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Chicago Cubs -114 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
20* Cubs/White Sox Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -114
After losing their last two games by exactly one run, the Chicago Cubs are going to be highly motivated for a victory Saturday to try and get back in the win column before the All-Star Break. I like their chances with the red-hot Jon Lester on the mound.
Lester hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last two starts. He has pitched 14 innings while allowing only 10 base runners and striking out 15 batters. This guy just seems to get stronger as the season goes on. In his last three starts against the White Sox, Lester is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA while allowing 4 earned runs in 23 innings and striking out 29 batters.
There's no denying that Chris Sale has been dominant this season with a 2.80 ERA in 16 starts. However, he is in a bit of a letdown spot here. His streak of consecutive starts with 10 or more strikeouts came to an end in his last outing, and he won't bring the same focus to this start because of it.
The Cubs are 11-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. Lester is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. The White Sox are 16-36 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Cubs Saturday.
|
07-10-15 |
Cincinnati Reds -108 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -108
After getting shut out by elite starter Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of this series, I look for the Reds to take Game 2. It's going to be much easier on their hitters going up against a guy like David Phelps than Fernandez.
Phelps has gone 4-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 13 starts and four relief appearances in 2015. The right-hander is also 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati. In his lone start against the Reds this season, Phelps allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 2/3 innings of a 2-5 loss in Cincinnati on June 21.
The Reds clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one with Mike Leake. He has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in eight road starts. But what stands out the most is that Leake is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in five career starts against Miami. He pitched 7 shutout innings of a 5-0 win over Miami on June 19.
Miami is 0-6 (-7.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Miami is 1-6 in Phelps' last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Reds Friday.
|
07-09-15 |
Detroit Tigers -127 v. Minnesota Twins |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -127
The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of this series Thursday. They should be much bigger favorites given the massive edge they have on the mound.
Ace David Price has put up AL Cy Young-caliber numbers in 2015. The left-hander has gone 8-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 17 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine road starts. Price has gone 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota as well.
Mike Pelfrey is not on Price's level. He has gone 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 2.762 WHIP in his last three. Pelfrey is 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in eight career starts against Detroit. In his last start against the Tigers on May 14th, he allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 12 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 13-1 loss.
The Tigers are 12-0 in Price's last 12 starts vs. division opponents. Price is 10-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. Detroit is 8-0 in Price's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series. These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Detroit. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
|
07-08-15 |
Oakland A's -107 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
20* AL Wednesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Oakland A's -107
The Oakland A's are the most underrated team in baseball right now due to their 39-47 record. They actually have one of the best run differentials (+50) in baseball in spite of that poor record, but they have gone 7-21 in one-run games. That's simply poor luck and I look for the A's to be a great bet the rest of the way.
Oakland clearly has the edge on the mound today behind Scott Kazmir, who is 5-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.119 WHIP over 16 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three. Kazmir is 8-8 with a 3.48 ERA in 20 career starts against the Yankees. In his last two starts against New York, he has allowed just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings.
C.C. Sabathia continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers despite being washed up. The left-hander has been terrible over the last three years, and it hasn't been any better in 2015. Sabathia is 3-8 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in six home starts. He is 8-11 with a 4.75 ERA in 28 career starts against Oakland. In his last two starts against the A's, Sabathia has allowed 11 earned runs and four homers over 12 innings.
The A's are 7-0 in their last seven road games. Oakland is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road favorite. The A's are 5-0 in their last five Wednesday games. Oakland is 10-1 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Oakland. Bet the A's Wednesday.
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07-07-15 |
New York Mets v. San Francisco Giants -123 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
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20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -123
After losing seven straight games to fall back to 42-42 on the season, the San Francisco Giants enter this game with the New York Mets highly motivated for a victory. I expect that motivation to lead to a win today behind starter Matt Cain.
Cain will be making his second start back from injury and should be much sharper this time around. He has gone 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Mets. In his last two starts against New York, Cain has allowed just two earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.
Bartolo Colon has finally started to slow down this season, going 9-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 starts, including 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in seven road starts. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.449 WHIP In five career starts against the Giants as well.
The Mets are 6-24 in their last 30 games as an underdog. New York is 7-19 in its last 26 road games. The Mets are 0-5 in Colon's last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 17-5 in their last 22 during game 2 of a series. Bet the Giants Tuesday.
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07-06-15 |
San Diego Padres +132 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
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20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +132
The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value today as big road underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They will be motivated for a win today after dropping two straight and five of their last seven overall.
I'll gladly back ace James Shields at this price. The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 4.14 ERA over 17 starts this season. He has struck out 123 batters in 104 1/3 innings. Shields faced Pittsburgh on May 29th, giving up two earned runs in six innings of a 6-2 Padres' victory.
A.J. Burnett is way overvalued right now after his improbable first half where he went 7-3 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 16 starts. Burnett is just 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Diego. He allowed five runs, four earned, and 10 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres on May 28th.
Shields is 9-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Burnett is 1-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. San Diego is 6-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games after two straight losses by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons. Bet the Padres Monday.
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07-05-15 |
Los Angeles Angels -121 v. Texas Rangers |
Top |
12-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
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20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -121
The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Sunday as small road favorites over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are getting too much respect due to their surprising 41-41 start this year. They have been outscored 2-21 by the Angels in the first two games of this series.
Los Angeles will complete the sweep today behind C.J. Wilson. The left-hander has gone 6-6 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven road starts. Wilson gave up one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 4-1 win over Texas on April 24th in his lone start against the Rangers this season.
Colby Lewis has put up respectable numbers at 8-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 16 starts this season, but he's overvalued as a result. Plus, Lewis is 5-9 with a 5.44 ERA in 18 career starts against Los Angeles.
The Angels are 40-17 in their last 57 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Los Angeles is 21-8 in Wilson's last 29 starts as a favorite. The Rangers are 14-41 in their last 55 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Texas is 0-7 in its last seven vs. AL West foes. The Rangers are 1-7 in Lewis' last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Bet the Angels Sunday.
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07-04-15 |
Houston Astros v. Boston Red Sox -116 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
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20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -116
The Boston Red Sox lost in extra innings to the Houston Astros yesterday. I believe they'll be extra motivated today as a result, and I certainly feel that they get revenge due to the edge they have on the mound.
Clay Buchholz is having a fine season at 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 16 starts. But he has really lowered those numbers thanks to his dominance of late. Indeed, Buchholz is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in his last three starts. Plus, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.
Collin McHugh has managed to turn around his season by pitching well here of late as well. Even with his recent successes, McHugh is 9-3 in spite of a 4.16 ERA in 16 starts this year. He has simply been fortunate to get great run support in his starts, which is certainly a luck factor.
Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 51-13 (79.7%, +34.2 units) over the last five seasons. Boston is 7-0 in its last seven games following a loss. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.
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07-03-15 |
San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -129 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
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20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -129
The Washington Nationals are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Francisco Giants today. They will be highly motivated for a win as they come in off two straight losses in their previous series against the Braves.
Gio Gonzalez has not pitched very well on the road this season, but he has been very solid at home, going 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in six starts. He's coming off his best start of the season, pitching 7 shutout innings against the Pirates last time out.
Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco. He'll be opposed by Jake Peavy, who is washed up. Peavy is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in his two starts this season. He has allowed 8 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.
The Giants are 0-5 in Peavy's last five starts. San Francisco is 0-4 in its last four road games. Washington is 6-0 in its last six home games. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four during Game 1 of a series. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Friday.
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07-02-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Baltimore Orioles -117 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
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20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -117
The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as small home favorites over the Texas Rangers. After losing two out of three thus far in this series, there's no question that the Orioles will be motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight to avoid losing the series.
Kevin Gausman was one of the top prospects in the game when he was drafted by Baltimore. While he will be making just his second start of 2015, he pitched well in his first, giving up just two runs and four hits over five innings of a 5-3 win at Toronto on June 20.
Yovani Gallardo is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to his recent performances. He actually hasn't allowed a run in any of his last three starts. But he'll now be up against a potent Baltimore offense that has scored 4 or more runs in 10 of its last 12 games overall.
The Orioles are 61-28 in their last 89 home games. Baltimore is 56-22 in its last 78 home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The Orioles are 9-3 in Gausman's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings, including 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Thursday.
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07-01-15 |
Chicago Cubs -119 v. New York Mets |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
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20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -119
The Chicago Cubs finally put an end to their five-game losing streak yesterday with a 1-0 victory over the Mets, who had previously won four straight coming in. I look for the Cubs to take Game 2 of this series tonight thanks to the edge they have on the mound.
Ace Jon Lester has not pitched up to his potential to this point, but that's also a reason why we are getting him at such a great price here. Lester is 4-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 15 starts. He has pitched much better of late, going 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against New York.
Bartolo Colon has finally started to show signs of slowing down in 2015. The veteran is 9-6 in spite of a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts this year. Colon has really been battered in his last two starts, going 0-2 while allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 1/3 innings. Colon is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.
The Mets are 23-47 in their last 70 games as an underdog. New York is 22-53 in its last 75 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. New York is 1-6 in its last seven games following a loss. The Mets are 0-4 in Colon's last four starts as a dog of +110 to +150. Chicago is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Cubs Wednesday.
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06-30-15 |
Chicago Cubs -118 v. New York Mets |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118
The Chicago Cubs could not possibly be more motivated for a victory than they will be tonight when they take on the New York Mets. They have lost five straight coming in, while the Mets have won four in a row. I'll back the more hungry Cubs in this one.
Kyle Hendricks has pitched well this season. He is 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA, but he has been unfortunate to have that big of an ERA considering his WHIP is just 1.220 and he doesn't walk many batters or give up a ton of home runs. Hendricks is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his lone career start against the Mets.
Jon Niese, on the other hand, is fortunate to have a 4.12 ERA in spite of his 3-7 record and 1.518 WHIP over 14 starts this year. The left-hander has struggled to remain in the rotation. Nise is 3-5 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in nine career starts against the Cubs as well.
The Mets are 35-79 in their last 114 games as a home underdog. New York is 4-22 in its last 26 games as an underdog overall. New York is 5-17 in Niese's last 22 starts as an underdog. The Mets are 7-21 in Niese's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 1-7 in Niese's last eight starts. The Mets are 0-8 in Niese's last eight starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Cubs Tuesday.
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