15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Bulls UNDER 204.5

The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns are both going to be giving a little extra on the defensive end of the court tonight.  They are both coming off bad losses in their first games back from the break.  The Suns lost 109-111 at Minnesota, while the Bulls lost 91-100 at Detroit.

Look for Chicago to be especially tough on the defensive end.  It has gone 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall, allowing 101 or fewer points in seven straight.  It has given up just 90.6 points per game in its last five games overall as it is getting back to a dominant defensive team.

Phoenix is not a very good defensive team, but it is capable of limiting the Bulls, who play at a very slow pace and will control the tempo playing at home.  A big reason I like this UNDER is because the Suns will be out of sync offensively.  They traded away Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, and now they'll be trying to work in Brandon Knight, Marcus Thornton and Danny Granger to the offense.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the recent head-to-head series.  The Suns and Bulls have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 192, 193, 179 and 178 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 185.5 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.

Phoenix is 11-1 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Suns last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Phoenix is 20-9 to the UNDER in road games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +15

The DePaul Blue Demons have been the single-most underrated team in all of the Big East this season in terms of the point spread. That's evidenced by the fact that they are a sensational 11-3 ATS in all Big East games.  They have gone 6-8 SU as well and are only getting outscored by 4.9 points per game in conference play.  They have only lost by more than 13 points twice in Big East action.

The Blue Demons are once again catching too many points here due to their last performance, coupled with Georgetown's last performance.  The betting public wants nothing to do with DePaul off their 27-point loss to Providence, while the public wants everything to do with Georgetown off its 22-point win over St. John's.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DEPAUL) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 111-66 (62.7%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that it's a very profitable move backing big underdogs off a huge ATS loss this time of year.

DePaul only lost by 6 to Georgetown as 7-point home underdogs, 72-78, on January 13th in the first meeting this season.  That places the Blue Demons in revenge mode, which I love.  DePaul has played Georgetown very tough on the road.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Washington DC.  The Blue Demons won 60-56 as 11-point dogs last season, only lost by 7 as 13-point dogs in 2013, lost by 11 as 22-point dogs in 2011, and lost by 8 as 17.5-point dogs in 2009.

The Blue Demons are 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  DePaul is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  These two trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the road team.  Also, the Blue Demons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +26

At 26-0 and with the No. 1 ranking in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are also coming off two straight blowout wins and covers over South Carolina and Tennessee, only adding to the betting public's love for them.

The Wildcats had failed to cover five straight prior to their last two.  They only beat Missouri by 16 as 17.5-point favorites, Alabama by 15 as 19-point favorites, Georgia by 11 as 18-point favorites, Florida by 7 as 8-point favorites, and LSU by 2 as 10-point favorites.

Auburn comes in undervalued after having going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  This team has been competitive despite its 12-13 record on the season.  It has even gone on the road and beaten LSU 81-77 as 10.5-point dogs and Georgia 69-68 as 11-point dogs in the month of February.  In fact, Auburn's last seven losses have all come by 14 points or less.  Its largest loss in SEC play was a 20-point loss at Florida.

The Tigers have played the Wildcats very tough in recent years.  They are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They haven't lost by more than 24 to Kentucky in any of the last eight meetings.  Five of their last eight losses to Kentucky have come by 10 points or less, including a 64-56 loss to the Wildcats last year.  The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Kentucky.

Auburn is 10-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games this season.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  They beat LSU and Georgia outright, while only losing to Alabama by 2 and Tennessee by 8.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Fordham +15

The Davidson Wildcats (18-6) have been going under the radar up to this point.  That's evident by the fact that they are 16-5 ATS in all lined games this season.  However, I believe the betting public has finally caught on, and now it's time to fade them while they're overvalued as 15-point home favorites over Fordham today.

Davidson is coming off a huge 65-63 road win over George Washington on Wednesday.  That fact alone sets it up for a letdown spot here.  It will have a hard time getting motivated to face an 8-16 Fordham team, especially with three straight games coming up against Atlantic 10 contenders Rhode Island, GW and VCU in its next three games.

Everyone has been sleeping on Fordham here of late.  The Rams have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost to UMass 72-78 as 7-point home dogs, beat St. Louis 83-65 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost to Richmond 71-73 as 13.5-point road dogs, beat St. Joseph's 69-55 as 2-point home dogs, and beat George Mason 80-68 as 5-point road dogs.  If that's not an impressive stretch, I don't know what is.  But, the oddsmakers still aren't giving them the respect they deserve with the 15-point spread they have set today.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (DAVIDSON) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against a home team (DAVIDSON) - a very good team (+8 PPG differential or better) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a close win by 3 points or less are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Fordham Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion -1

In one of the most anticipated games in Conference USA this season, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (21-6) travel to face the Old Dominion Monarchs (19-6) on Saturday.  I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially with the way the Monarchs have played at home this season.

Indeed, Old Dominion is a perfect 14-0 straight up at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. It has beaten the likes of Richmond, VCU, Georgia State and Charlotte at home this year, so it's not like the Monarchs are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes at home.

All six of Louisiana Tech's losses this season have come on the road.  It has lost to the likes of LA-Lafeyette, North Texas and UAB on the road this season.  It is coming off a hard-fought 83-82 road win at Charlotte on Thursday, making this a tough two-day turnaround. 

The Monarchs are coming off a 64-38 win over Southern Miss Thursday, which allowed them to preserve their starters.  The Monarchs will be the fresher team as a result, and they'll want this game more.  They only lost by 5 at home to LA Tech last year, and now they have four starters back from that team who will want revenge.

The Monarchs are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Old Dominion is 12-2 ATS versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  LA Tech is 1-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  Combine this 6-0 trend with the fact that they're 14-0 at home this season, and we have a 20-0 system backing the Monarchs.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green -1.5

The MAC is easily one of the most underrated conferences in the country.  Bowling Green (17-7), Kent State (18-8), Akron (17-9), Buffalo (16-9), Central Michigan (19-5) and Toledo (17-9) are all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams.  It's a shame that likely only one of these teams will make the big dance.

I've seen Bowling Green play a couple times this year and have been very impressed.  I believe it should be a much heavier home favorite today over Buffalo.  The Falcons are 10-3 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.

The reason there is so much value here is because Buffalo is overvalued off its 15-point win at Eastern Michigan, while Bowling Green is undervalued off its 11-point home loss to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons had won four straight prior to that contest, including a road win at Central Michigan and a home win over WMU.  I look for them to get back to playing the way they were before.

Buffalo is just 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  This team has been overvalued on a regular basis, and it continues to be here Saturday.  The Falcons continue lacking the respect they deserve despite going a ridiculous 16-4 ATS in all games this year.  Head coach Louis Orr is doing a fine job, and it helps that he returned four starters from last year to this veteran squad.

Buffalo is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover 3 of its last 4 games this season.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  The Falcons are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Falcons.  Roll with Bowling Green Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from an 86-89 road loss at Iowa State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season.  I like their chances of getting it at home this time around for a couple of different reasons.

Texas comes into this game playing great baseball.  It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a final of 69-71 at Oklahoma as 6.5-point dogs.  It has beaten Kansas State by 4 on the road, TCU by 23 and Texas Tech by 15 at home for its three wins during this stretch.

Iowa State is unbeatable at home, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  The Cyclones are just 5-6 in all road games this season, which includes neutral court games.  They have lost four of their last five road games to Oklahoma (by 11), Kansas (by 13), Texas Tech (by 5) and Baylor (by 1).  Their only two Big 12 road wins all year came at WVU and at Oklahoma State by a combined 7 points, so they are very close to being 0-6 on the road in conference play.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011.  Texas is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Iowa State.

Texas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 51-25 ATS in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse since 1997.  Take Texas Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on LSU -4

I don't normally like taking teams like LSU who have already beaten their opponent once this season.  But, given the circumstances, I'm willing to overlook the revenge factor for Florida and back the Tigers as small 4-point home favorites in the rematch.

LSU not only beat Florida, it dominated, winning 79-61 as 11-point road underdogs on January 20th.  I look for a similar beat down in the rematch as the Gators are just in a world of hurt right now, while the Tigers need this win badly.

LSU has lost four of its last six games overall to drop to 18-8 and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Well, all four losses came by 6 points or less, including a 2-point home loss to Kentucky as 10-point dogs.  This is still the second-best team in the SEC in my opinion.

Florida has been overvalued all season due to what it has done in the past.  Well, this may be the worst team that Billy Donnovan has ever had.  The Gators are just 13-13 on the season, including 9-14 ATS in all lined games.

The biggest reason I'm backing LSU today is because Florida is without its two best players.  Leading scorer Michael Frazier II (13.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is out with an ankle injury, while second-leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith (12.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) has recently been suspended and will miss this game.  Their next-leading scorer is Eli Carter (8.2 ppg), so they are obviously short-handed today.

LSU is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last 3 seasons.  Florida is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less this season.  The Gators are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  These four trends combine for a 34-5 system backing the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as only 3-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Nets (21-31) find themselves sitting in 9th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, just one game behind the Miami Heat.

That's why they should come out of the break highly motivated for a victory.  Plus, they went into the break with three straight losses, all of which came on the road to playoff contenders in Washington, Milwaukee and Memphis.  I look for them to dig down deep to get a win in their first game out of the break.

The Los Angeles Lakers (13-40) have the second-worst record in the Western Conference.  They have lost six straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall coming into this one.  Their last three losses all came by double-digits.  They are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 55-20 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Nets are 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons. 

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in its last eight after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game.  The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  In their first meeting of the season, the Bulls won 102-91 for 193 combined points.  I look for an even lower-scoring game in the second meeting.

The Pistons just traded point guard D.J. Augustin and forward Kyle Singler.  They got Reggie Jackson back in return, but he's not expected to play tonight.  They were already without Brandon Jennings.  That means the Pistons will essentially be without a point guard tonight, which will wreck their offensive production.

The Bulls have really been clamping down defensively here of late.  They have gone 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall while holding all six opponents to 101 or fewer points, and five of those to 99 or less.  They have allowed an average of 88.3 points per game in their last four.

Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor foul-drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws this season.  The Bulls are 17-6 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 206

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors are very familiar with one another right now as this will be their fourth and final meeting of the 2014-15 season.  Familiarity breeds defensive battles, and that will be the case tonight between these teams.

The first two meetings in this series were high-scoring and would have over this 206-point total.  However, they slowed down in the third meeting as the Hawks beat the Raptors 110-89 for 199 combined points.  The Hawks even shot 60.9% from the field in that game and it still only reached 199.

The biggest reason the Hawks have the best record in the East right now is their defense.  They only give up 96.8 points per game on the season and 95.3 points per game at home.  They rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency this season.

Toronto is 13-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  We're seeing an average of 186.0 combined points per game in this spot in Raptors' games.  The Raptors have been held to 95 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, and the UNDER is 4-1 in those contests.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Mavericks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder return from the All-Star Break in a great position to make the playoffs.  They won five of their final six games before the break to get to 28-25 on the season and just a half-game behind the Phoenix Suns for the No. 8 seed in the West.

The Thunder haven't only been winning here of late, they've been dominating.  Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, including a 16-point home win over Memphis, a 10-point win at Denver, a 23-point home win over the Clippers, and an 11-point road win at New Orleans.

The Dallas Mavericks are getting healthy coming out of the break.  They are expected to have Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler in the lineup for this game.  Amare Stoudemire is also probable after being acquired before the deadline.  While this is good news for the Mavs, it also has them overvalued coming into this game.  They should be more than 5-point dogs against the superior Thunder on the road.

The Thunder are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Mavericks.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois-Chicago -1

This is a battle between two of the worst teams in the Horizon League in the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (10-16) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (7-20).  I'll side with the home team laying the small number here for a couple of different reasons.

For starters, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a terrible road team.  In fact, it has gone 0-11 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 17.9 points per game.  It has lost seven straight road games by double-digits to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 11, Valpo by 25, Oakland by 13, Detroit by 16, Cleveland State by 27, South Dakota by 24, and Arkansas by 30.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Illinois-Chicago comes into this game playing its best basketball of the season.  It has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes impressive outright road wins as underdogs at Detroit (83-73) and Wright State (79-75).  It also played Valpo tough in a 5-point loss as a 10-point dog, and Cleveland State tough in an 8-point road loss as 14-point dogs.

The Flames will be out for revenge today from their 65-71 road loss to Milwaukee as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th just three weeks ago.  They'll be the more motivated team for sure.  Milwaukee could be in a hangover spot here from its tough 55-62 home loss to Valpo last time out in which it blew the game late.

Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.  Illinois-Chicago is 9-0 ATS off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Flames.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -4

You won't find many teams in the country with a bigger home/away discrepancy than the Indiana Hoosiers.  They have not been good at all on the road, going just 3-7 in all games played away from home.  Inside Assembly Hall, it has been a completely different story.

Indiana is 15-1 at home this season where it outscoring opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.  It is coming off a 19-point home win over Minnesota on Sunday and I fully expect it to blow out the Purdue Boilermakers today.

The Hoosiers will be out for revenge from their 67-83 loss at Purdue on January 28th.  That was yet another blowout win for the home team, which is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in this series, winning by 16, 18 and 28 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Purdue is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Assembly Hall.

Purdue comes into this game way overvalued due to going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Well, four of those wins came at home, while two were on the road to Big Ten bottom feeders Northwestern and Rutgers.  They also lost to Minnesota 58-62 on the road during this stretch.  So, this run has been more due to a soft, home-heavy schedule than anything.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Matt Painter is 0-6 ATS in road games after being called for 10-plus less fouls than their opponent last game as the coach of Purdue.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Hoosiers.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +8.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers (24-2) have certainly been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  However, that's clearly not the case any more as this team is getting respect with their No. 11 national ranking.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to.

The Panthers barely covered on Sunday in a 68-57 road win at lowly Missouri State as 10.5-point favorites.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against an underrated Loyola-Chicago team that is starting to play some of its best basketball of the season.

The Ramblers have won three of their last four to improve to 16-10 on the season.  More impressively, they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 11 at Wichita State as 18.5-point dogs, lost by 3 to Illinois State as 3.5-point home dogs, beat Missouri State by 3 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 4 as 3.5-point home favorites, and beat Bradley by 5 as 3.5-point road dogs.

I love taking teams in revenge mode after they played the other team tough in the first meeting, but lost.  That's the case here as Loyola-Chicago only lost by 9 as 11-point road underdogs to Northern Iowa on January 4th.  Now, they are 8.5-point home underdogs in the rematch.  That just shows you how overvalued Northern Iowa is because when you factor in 3.5 points for home court, this spread should only be UNI -4 based on the 11-point spread in the first meeting.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings between the Panthers and Ramblers dating back to 2005.  Northern Iowa is 2-12 ATS after leading its last game by 20 or more points at the half since 1997.  The Ramblers are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less this season.  Loyola is 14-4 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +12

Buzz Williams has done an excellent job in his first season at Virginia Tech.  This team was picked to finished at or near the bottom of the ACC coming into the season.  While it won't show up in the win-loss column, the Hokies have been ultra competitive in conference play.

Despite going 2-10 straight up within the ACC, the Hokies are a very profitable 8-4 ATS.  They upset Pitt and Georgia Tech at home, while also going on the road and covering against Louisville, UNC, Wake Forest and Syracuse.  They only lost by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs.  They only lost by 3 at home to Virginia as 16.5-point dogs as well.

The Miami Hurricanes are 16-9 this season, but they have really struggled here of late.  They are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech as 9.5-point favorites, an 8-point home loss to Louisville as 4.5-point dogs, a 1-point loss at FSU as 2-point favorites, and a 2-point loss at Wake Forest as 2.5-point favorites.

What really stood out to me when looking into this game is the rest situation.  Miami played on Monday in an 89-86 (double OT) road win at Boston College.  It will have just one day off in between games, and the double OT factor will only magnify the short rest.  VA Tech will have had three days off in between games since losing at Clemson on Saturday.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 120-64 (65.2%) ATS since 1997.  Miami is 10-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.

Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Hokies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  VA Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, which have all been decided by 7 points or less, and by a combined 11 points.  These three trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Hokies.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +12

The East Carolina Pirates have quietly been a covering machine here of late, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are showing excellent value once again tonight as double-digit road underdogs to the reeling Tulsa Godlen Hurricane.

The Pirates have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost to Tulsa 64-66 as 9.5-point home dogs, to Memphis by 12 as 14.5-point road dogs, beat Cincinnati by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs, lost to UConn by 13 as 14-point road dogs, beat UCF by 18 as 5-point home favorites, beat Memphis by 11 as 5.5-point home dogs, and lost to Temple by 13 as 13-point road dogs.

As you can see, the Pirates have played some of the best teams in the American Athletic down to the wire during this stretch.  That includes the 64-66 home loss to Tulsa, which means that the Pirates will be out for revenge in the rematch.  They aren't going to lose this game by more than 12 points having only lost to the Golden Hurricane by 2 at home.

Tulsa benefited from a very easy schedule in the first half of the season, and now it has been way overvalued here of late.  It is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes back-to-back losses to SMU by 11 at home and to Connecticut by 25 on the road.  This team is broken right now, and it won't be fixed in time to put ECU away by 13-plus points tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (E CAROLINA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1997.  ECU is 10-2 ATS in February games over the last two years.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this season, coming back to win by an average of 8.7 points per game in this spot.  ECU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. loss.  The Pirates are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Pirates.  Take East Carolina Wednesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -1

The average amateur bettor would see Wyoming (20-6) as an underdog to Nevada (8-16) and automatically take the Cowboys because of their record.  Well, there's a reason why the Wolf Pack are favored instead, and I believe they should be a much heavier favorite today.

Wyoming is playing without star forward Larry Nance Jr., who has missed the past three games due to Mono.  He is as important to his team as any player in the country.  Nance leads the Cowboys in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.2 rpg) by a wide margin as he is only one of two players scoring in double-figures.  He also shoots 54.8% from the field and 78.7% from the free throw line.

The loss of Nance Jr. has been felt in their last three games.  They lost 50-73 at Air Force as 1-point underdogs, 41-67 at San Diego State as 12-point dogs, and beat San Jose State 77-60 as 18.5-point home favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their three games without him.

I really like the way Nevada has been playing here of late.  Sure, it is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall, but it has gone 4-3 ATS during this stretch.  It only lost by 4 at Fresno State as 7.5-point dogs, to UNLV by 5 as 4-point home dogs, to Wyoming by 8 as 13.5-point road dogs, to San Diego State by 2 as 11-point home dogs, and to Utah State by 13 as 8-point road dogs.  It beat San Jose State 60-57 on the road and New Mexico 66-63 at home.

It's their last three home games that really stand out against three of the best teams in the MWC.  They only lost to UNLV by 5, San Diego State by 2, and beat New Mexico by 3 as stated before.  Those three results alone show me that the Wolf Pack are capable of beating Wyoming even if they had Nance Jr., but without him they surely will beat the Cowboys.

After all, the Wolf Pack played the Cowboys tough in their first meeting, only losing 55-63 on the road as 13.5-point dogs on January 31st.  Nance Jr. had a double-double in that contest, collecting 11 points, 10 rebounds and 4 steals.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series.  Wyoming is 4-5 in true road games this year with its only wins coming against Montana State, San Jose State, Colorado State and Fresno State.

Wyoming is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 42% or less of their shots this year.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Wolf Pack.  Bet Nevada Tuesday.

20* Pitt/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +12.5

I've successfully faded Virginia each of their last two games with a 4-point win at NC State as 7-point road favorites, and a 1-point win over Wake Forest as 17.5-point home favorites.  It's no coincidence that I'm fading them again tonight for the same reason.  They remain without their best player, Justin Anderson.

Oddsmakers are once again failing to factor in how important Anderson is to this team as the Cavaliers are ridiculous 12.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh.  This will be his third missed game as he also sat out the NC State and Wake Forest games.  Anderson is second on the team in scoring (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  He shoots 48.0% from the floor, 48.4% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He is irreplaceable on this team.

The Cavaliers have had a hard time living up to their No. 2 national ranking and their 23-1 record here of late.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, time and time again being overvalued by oddsmakers.  They only beat VA Tech by 3 as 16.5-point road favorites, lost to Duke by 6 as 6-point home favorites, and beat Louisville by 5 as 6.5-point home favorites in their other three ATS losses during this stretch.

Pitt (17-9) has put itself right back into the NCAA Tournament discussion by winning four of its last five games overall.  It has beaten three of the better teams in the ACC in Notre Dame (76-72), Syracuse (83-77) and North Carolina (89-76) during this stretch, so it's not like the Panthers are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes.

Virginia won the ACC regular season title and the ACC conference tournament last year.  Well, nobody played the Cavaliers tougher than Pitt did.  They lost 45-48 at home to Virginia on February 2nd, and then 48-51 on the road in the ACC Tournament.  After two heartbreaking 3-point losses to the Cavaliers last year, you can bet that the Panthers will be out for revenge in their first meeting of 2015.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, playing their 3rd game in a week are 74-41 (64.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Virginia is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Jamie Dixon is 33-19 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Pitt.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Bet Pitt Monday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +18

It has been a tale of three seasons for the California Golden Bears.  They opened 10-1 and looked poised to challenge Arizona for a Pac-12 Title.  Eight losses in nine games later, and they were left for dead.  But they have found their mojo once again over the last couple weeks.

Indeed, the Golden Bears are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Washington State 76-67 as 2.5-point road dogs to start the streak.  They then won at Washington 90-88 as 6.5-points dogs, beat USC 70-69 as 7.5-point home favorites, topped UCLA 64-62 as 4-point home dogs, and upset Colorado 68-61 as 7-point road dogs.

Despite their recent solid play, they still continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  I'll gladly take advantage tonight and back them as massive 18-point road underdogs to the Utah Utes, who couldn't possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.

With a 19-4 record and the No. 11 ranking in the country, the Utes are getting a ton of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers right now.  They have created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to, especially tonight as 18-point favorites against one of the hottest teams in the Pac-12.

California is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with Utah.  In six meetings as Pac-12 opponents, the Bears are 4-2 SU with their two losses coming by 4 and 10 points.  That 10-point loss even came in overtime.  While the Utes have one of the best teams they've ever had, asking them to win by 19-plus points to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

Plays against any team (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 131-72 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cal is 13-3 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  The Bears are 46-22 ATS int heir last 68 road games after playing their last game as a road underdog.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet California Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers come into this game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers highly motivated for a victory.  The Hoosiers have lost four of their last six games overall, including a heartbreaking 66-68 loss at Maryland last time out.  Well, all four of those losses came on the road, where the Hoosiers have struggled all season.

It has been a completely different story at home inside Assembly Hall for the Hoosiers.  Indeed, they are 14-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of SMU, Pitt, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan at home this season.  This is a very generous 2.5-point spread given their success at home this year.

Minnesota was undervalued after a poor start to the season that featured several close losses.  However, it is now overvalued due to having won three straight coming into this one.  Well, two of those wins came at home against Nebraska and Purdue, while the other was a quality win at Iowa last time out.

The Gophers beat the Hawkeyes 64-59 on the road Thursday night.  That means they've only had two days off in between games to rest and prepare for Indiana.  The Hoosiers have had three days off since their 2-point loss at Maryland Wednesday.  I know it's not much, but that extra day of rest and preparation for the Hoosiers on such a short turnaround for both teams is a big advantage.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Minnesota and Indiana.  In fact, the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Indiana is 10-3 SU in all home meetings with Minnesota dating back to 1998.  Also consider that Minnesota is just 1-5 in Big Ten road games this season.  It has lost at Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State all by 3 points or more.

Plays against an underdog (MINNESOTA) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Minnesota is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Indiana is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Golden Gophers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Take Indiana Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois-Chicago +14

This is one of my favorite situations in college basketball.  I like taking double-digit road underdogs in the rematch after losing to their opponent at home by single-digits in the first meeting.  That is the exact scenario here with Illinois-Chicago up against Cleveland State.

Illinois-Chicago lost the first meeting 69-74 to Cleveland State as 8-point home underdogs on January 4th.  The Flames only shot 37.1% and gave up 59.1% shooting to the Vikings, yet still only lost by 5 points.  They did so by outrebounding the Vikings 35-18 for the game, and 15-1 on the offensive glass.  I look for their ability to dominate the boards to come in handy once again in the rematch.

Not only will Cleveland State have a hard time being motivated enough to beat Illinois-Chicago by 15-plus points in the rematch, it will also be the more tired, less-prepared team in this one.  Cleveland State last played on Friday in a 65-66 loss at Detroit, giving it just one day in between games.  Illinois-Chicago has had two days off since a win at Wright State on Thursday.  That extra day off is huge when we're talking about such a short turnaround here for both teams.

I really love the way the Flames have been playing here of late.  They are undervalued due to their 7-19 record, but they have been playing much better than that record would indicate down the stretch.  The Flames are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

They only lost by 6 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as 8-point underdogs and by 5 to Valpo as 10-point home dogs to start this stretch.  They have since gone on the road in their last two games to pull off back-to-back upsets over Detroit (83-73) as 9.5-point dogs and Wright State (79-75) as 7-point road dogs.  That's the same Detroit team that Cleveland State beat by 4 and lost to by 1 in their two meetings this season.

Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor rebounding teams who average 33 or less boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Flames are 8-0 ATS off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two years.  Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS off a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Flames.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -3

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing some of the best value that they've shown all season today as only 3-point home favorites over the young, rebuilding Vanderbilt Commodores.  At 15-9 on the season, the Crimson Tide are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

The reason Alabama comes in undervalued is because it is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall.  Well four of those six losses came on the road, while the other two came at home to Kentucky and Florida.  The Crimson Tide have held their own at home this season, going 12-2 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.

The future is bright for Vanderbilt, but right now this team is just a mediocre 13-11 squad that has no business being only a 3-point road underdog to the Crimson Tide.  Vanderbilt has been a really tough out at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Commodores are 1-6 in true road games this season.  Their only road win came at Atlantic 10 bottom feeder Saint Louis, and they are 0-5 in SEC road games.

Vanderbilt is 37-59 ATS in its last 96 Saturday road games.  Alabama is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 home games following a game with 9 or less assists.  The Crimson Tide are 12-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the past two seasons.  Take Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +5.5

This game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Kansas State Wildcats Saturday is the ultimate 'buy low' and 'sell high' game.  We're going to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost five straight coming in.  We're going to 'sell high' on the Sooners, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The clear value in this game is on the Wildcats as 5.5-point home underdogs based on the information I just presented.  The betting public is all over the Sooners because of their recent play, driving this line way out of whack.  At the same time, the betting public wants nothing to do with Kansas State.

Sure, the Wildcats have lost five straight, but there is reason to believe they can put an end to that streak.  Three of the five losses came by 6 points or less to WVU (twice) and Texas), which are two formidable opponents.  The other two came on the road at Kansas and Texas Tech.

Plus, Kansas State has been playing without its best player in Marcus Foster (14.0 ppg) for the past three games, but he's expected to return today against Oklahoma.  That's big because Foster hit the game-winning 3-pointer in overtime to beat the Sooners 66-63 on the road in their first meeting of the season back on January 10th.  Foster is averaging 17 points per game and has shot 10-for-18 from 3-point range in his last three games against the Sooners.

Oklahoma has won five in a row, but three of those games were at home, while the other two were on the road against TCU and Oklahoma State.  The Sooners are coming off a huge home win over Iowa State earlier this week, which sets them up for a letdown spot here.

Kansas State is 4-2 at home this season in Big 12 play with its two losses coming to Texas & West Virginia by a combined 10 points.  It has beaten TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State at home this season.  The Wildcats' home-court advantage is no joke.  They are 124-23 over the past nine seasons at home, including 55-18 in Big 12 play.  Head coach Bruce Weber is 42-7 in home games in his K-State tenure, including 20-4 (.833) during Big 12 play.

The Wildcats have been a matchup nightmare for the Sooners in recent meetings.  In fact, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Sooners.  They have held Oklahoma to 66 or fewer points in four of those five meetings, and I look for their defense to keep them in this one as well.  They will be highly motivated to put an end to their five-game skid, which will only add to the defensive intensity.

Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (KANSAS ST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Oklahoma is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Sooners.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +17.5

I am looking for every opportunity to fade Virginia now that they are without their best player in Justin Anderson for four-to-six weeks due to a broken finger.  It worked in my first test on Wednesday as the Cavaliers failed to cover the spread as 7-point road favorites at NC State in a fortunate 51-47 victory.

Anderson is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He would be a star on any other team where he was asked to do more.  Anderson is second on the team in scoring (13.4 ppg), and he does a little bit of everything.  What's most impressive about him is that he shoots 48.0% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He will be missed greatly.

Virginia is already overvalued due to being the No. 2 team in the country with a 22-1 record.  It was already struggling to live up to expectations from oddsmakers, going 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Cavaliers won by 3 at VA Tech as 16.5-point favorites, lost to Duke by 6 as 6-point favorites, beat North Carolina on the road, only beat Louisville by 5 as 6.5-point favorites, and then beat NC State by 4 as 7-point road favorites.  It's no nearly impossible for them to live up to the expectations without Anderson.

Wake Forest is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Danny Manning.  The Demon Deacons have been highly competitive this season en route to a respectable 12-13 record.  They have a 9-point loss to Louisville, an 8-point loss to Duke, and a 3-point loss to Syracuse as they just do not get blown out.

In fact, the Demon Deacons haven't lost by more than 16 points since their first loss of the season to Arkansas.  So, they have gone 22 straight games without losing by more than 16 points.  They are 4-7 in ACC play with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.  Don't expect the Demon Deacons to get blown out today, either.

That's especially the case with the way they are playing coming into this game.  They have won three of their last four games overall.  They beat Virginia Tech 73-70 at home, NC State 88-84 at home and Miami 72-70 at home.  They nearly pulled off upsets on the road in their two games before that, losing 57-59 at Clemson and 76-82 (OT) at Florida State.

Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.  The Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  Wake Forest is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +17.5

I've made a killing fading No. 1 Kentucky here of late, and I'm going to do so again today as the oddsmakers and the betting public continue to overvalue them.  The betting public is always enamored with the No. 1 team in the country, especially one like the Wildcats who have a chance for an unbeaten season.

Fading Kentucky has indeed been a great move here of late.  It is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 16 at Missouri as 17.5-point favorites, by 15 at home against Alabama as 19-point favorites, by 11 at home of Georgia s 18-point favorites, by 7 at Florida as 8-point favorites, and by 2 at LSU as 10-point favorites.  Off such a huge win over LSU last time out, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Wildcats as well.

One of the biggest reasons the Gamecocks are catching so many points is because they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Well, this team was clearly overvalued after its 64-60 upset win over Iowa State in its final non-conference game.  That win gave the Gamecocks expectations that they haven't been able to live up to in SEC play.

Well, it's not like they haven't been competitive during their current 3-8 SU & 1-10 ATS stretch.  In fact, seven of their eight losses have come by 16 points or less, which is less than this 17.5-point spread.  Four of the losses came by 6 points or fewer as well.  This is still a very talented team that can beat anyone on any given day.

Kentucky will not only be in a letdown spot following the LSU win, but it will also have a hard time finding the motivation to beat a team that it already beat by 15 points once this season.  The Wildcats won 58-43 at South Carolina on January 24th.  The Gamecocks could not have played any worse. 

They shot 22.6% from the field, yet they still only lost by 15 points.  The Gamecocks will certainly fare better this time around.  They also outrebounded Kentucky 40-28 overall and 14-2 on the offensive glass.  That's a promising sign that they can win the battle on the glass again, which will help them stay within 17.5 points.

South Carolina is a sensational 29-13 ATS in its last 42 road games revenging a loss against an opponent by 10 points or more.  Kentucky is 4-13 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last three seasons.  John Calipari is 44-60 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more as the coach of Kentucky.  Roll with South Carolina Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -1.5

The Michigan State Spartans certainly have not been dominant this season like they have been in year's past.  They currently sit at 16-8 on the season.  But, like almost every Tom Izzo team before this one, the Spartans have gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Spartans have won seven of their last 10 games overall, including an emphatic 68-44 road win at Illinois last time out.  It has also blown out Iowa by 14 on the road, Rutgers by 20 on the road, and Indiana by 20 at home during this stretch.  I look for Izzo's bunch to continue hitting on all cylinders today against Ohio State.

Michigan State is 10-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 15.1 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings as the home team has won four straight between the Buckeyes and Spartans.

The Buckeyes come into this game way overvalued due to having won five of their last six games overall.  Well, those six games have come against Northwestern, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers and Penn State.  Back-to-back blowouts over the latter two teams are what have them really overvalued here as only 1.5-point road underdogs.

The Buckeyes have not fared very well away from home this year.  They are just 3-4 in true road games.  Their only three road wins came at Minnesota (74-72, OT), at Northwestern (69-67) and at Rutgers, so they haven't beaten anyone of any relevance on the road, and two of them were lucky close wins.  They have also been beaten at Louisville, at Indiana, at Iowa and at Purdue.  Simply put, they're not nearly as good of a road team as they are a home squad.

One small factor to consider here is that Ohio State last played on Wednesday giving it two days off in between games, while Michigan State last played on Tuesday giving it three days off.  This will also be the 3rd game in a week for the Buckeyes.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing their 3rd game in a week are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16-plus assists per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  Ohio State is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

25* Horizon League GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso -2.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders (22-4) and Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (20-5) are tied for first place in the Horizon League standings.  Which ever team wins this game will likely go on to win the title.  My money is on the slight 2.5-point home favorite Crusaders to get the job done.

This will be a rematch from a 51-50 home win by the Phoenix back on January 23rd.  Obviously, the Crusaders showed they could hang with the Phoenix on the road in that game, and now I fully expect them to have their revenge at home this time around.  After all, the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings with Valpo going 4-0 at home during this stretch.

The Crusaders have won nine of their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming at Green Bay by a single point.  They have been virtually unbeatable at home this season, going 11-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 14.5 points per game.  Green Bay is a mediocre 5-4 in true road games this year.

What really intrigues me about the Crusaders tonight is that they'll be the more rested, more prepared team.  That's because they last played on February 8th against Oakland, giving them four days off in between games.  Green Bay, meanwhile, last played on Wednesday in a narrow 63-62 win at Youngstown State as 11.5-point favorites.  So, the Phoenix have only had one day in between games to get ready for the Crusaders, which is a huge disadvantage.

Green Bay is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three straight wins over conference opponents.  Valparaiso is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 Friday games.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.  The Crusaders are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Valparaiso Friday.

25* Summit League GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -2.5

There's a reason that the 17-7 North Dakota State Bison are underdogs to the 10-13 Denver Pioneers tonight.  That reason is because the Pioneers have one of the best home-court advantages in the entire country, and they have for years.

The high altitude in Denver gives the Pioneers and advantage, similar to what it does for the Broncos in the NFL and the Nuggets in the NBA.  It's just a proven fact that it's an advantage because they are used to playing in altitude, while opposing teams are not and tend to get tired a lot faster as a result.

Denver has gone 9-4 at home this season compared to 1-9 on the road.  It has won each of its last three home games in impressive fashion, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 14, Oral Roberts by 7, and Western Illinois by 14.  It has also beaten South Dakota State and St. Joseph's at home recently.

North Dakota State is not as dominant as it has been in year's past as it returned just two starters this year.  This is still a quality team, but one that has proven to be vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, NDSU is 4-6 in true road games this season.

Denver will be out for revenge from a 54-61 (OT) loss at North Dakota State on January 29th only two weeks ago.  It will have its revenge as the home team has been dominant in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between NDSU and Denver since 2004.

The Bison are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  NDSU is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Pioneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  NDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.  The Pioneers are 60-36 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.  Bet Denver Thursday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Marymount +24.5

With a 24-1 record and a No. 3 ranking, the Gonzaga Bulldogs have created expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  That has certainly been the case here of late, and it is again tonight as 24.5-point favorites over Loyola-Marymount.

The Bulldogs are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have been double-digits favorites in all nine games, but not once more than a 24.5-point favorite like they are tonight.  Eight of their last nine wins have come by 22 points or less as well.  They aren't going to be motivated at all to face Loyola-Marymount tonight.

The Lions are just 8-17 on the season, so they obviously don't get much respect from the betting public or the oddsmakers.  But, they have been more competitive than their record would suggest.  They have been a real money-maker on the road, going 3-10 SU but 9-4 ATS.

Only one of Loyola's 17 losses this season has come by more than 24 points.  It has been a real profit machine here of late, going 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 9-point loss at San Diego as 10-point dogs,, a 13-point loss at BYU as 21-point dogs, a 12-point home win over Portland as 4-point dogs, a 3-point loss at Santa Clara as 5.5-point dogs, a 1-point win at San Francisco as 9-point dogs, 5-point win at Pacific as 3.5-point dogs, and a 9-point win over San Diego as 3-point home dogs.

Loyola hasn't lost by more than 18 in any of its last 15 games overall.  That includes a 17-point home loss to Gonzaga as 19.5-point dogs on January 17th.  Having already beaten the Lions by 17 this season, I just don't see the Bulldogs bringing the effort it's going to take to put them away by 25-plus the second time around.  After all, each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 19 points or less.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points (LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 82-42 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.  Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Loyola is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  Gonzaga is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Lions.  Take Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +11

The Utah Utes are certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have gone 18-4 up to this point, including a perfect 13-0 at home this season.  With these records and the No. 11 ranking in the nation comes expectations from the oddsmakers that this team is going to have a tough time living up to going forward.

Utah has no business being a double-digit favorite over a Stanford team that is 16-7 on the season and in prime position to make the NCAA Tournament.  This 11-point spread would indicate that the Utes are roughly 7 points better than Stanford on a neutral court, and I'm just not buying it.

Stanford is very close to being a 20-win team right now.  Five of its seven losses have come by 7 points or less, including four by a combined 10 points.  Only once all season has it lost a game by more than 11 points, and that fact alone shows you that there is some value in backing them here.

Stanford has Utah's number, too.  It has won four of five meetings with the Utes as Pac-12 opponents dating back to 2012.  Its only loss came by a single point at Utah 58-57 back in 2012.  The Cardinal have outscored the Utes by a combined 52 points in those five meetings.

Plays against a favorite (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 105-57 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Stanford is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 vs. slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots per game.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Stanford Thursday.

15* Rockets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public has shunned this team here of late.  But keep in mind that they are coming off a grueling 8-game road trip that featured seven games against playoff contenders.

The Clippers did finish the trip with a resounding 115-98 road win over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday.  They have played their last two games without Blake Griffin, and while that is a concern, I don't believe it's as big of a deal as the betting public is making it out to be.  I also look at is as a 'wash' heading into this game with Houston because the Rockets are without Dwight Howard.

What I really like about this play is that it's a very tough situation for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning a 127-118 shootout at Phoenix last night.  Without Howard, the Rockets are having to rely on James Harden too much.  He delivered with 40 points in 43 minutes of action last night, but he is running on fumes right now and will be ineffective tonight.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  These games haven't even been close as the Clippers have won by 17, 11, 8, 13 and 19 points with three of those victories actually coming on the road.  That's an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game.  Harden has been limited to 18.6 points and 37.0 percent from the floor in those five contests.

Houston is 11-22 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +9.5

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Air Force Falcons their due respect tonight.  Getting them as 9.5-point road underdogs to the Boise State Broncos is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage.

Air Force is just 11-12 on the season, but 10-7 when leading scorer Max Yon has played.  He missed six games right in the middle of the Mountain West season, and it's no surprise that the Falcons went 1-5 without him.  Yon averages 14.2 points per game, and the second-leading scorer averages 10.0 per game, so he is simply irreplaceable for them.

It's no surprise that the Falcons are 2-0 since Yon returned from injury.  They beat New Mexico 53-49 as 4-point home underdogs before crushing Wyoming 73-50 as 1-point home favorites last time out.  The injury to Yon has been a blessing in disguise because different players have had to step up with more minutes.  It has made this a much more balanced team now.  In fact, six different players scored at least 7 points in the 23-point win over Wyoming last time out.

Boise State could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It is certainly time to 'buy low' on Air Force and 'sell high' on Boise State right now. 

That's especially the case considering the Broncos are in a massive letdown spot here after their huge 61-46 win over MWC Title favorite San Diego State on Sunday.  Plus, Air Force will be out for revenge from a 68-77 home loss to Boise State on January 24th.  The Falcons were playing without Yon in that game.  The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Falcons a second time.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (AIR FORCE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off two or more consecutive home wins are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boise State is 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Falcons.  Roll with Air Force Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +7

The No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (21-1) are clearly one of the best teams in the country.  However, with that 21-1 record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  We're seeing it with undefeated Kentucky, and we'll be seeing it with Virginia as well.

The Cavaliers struggled to put away NC State in the first meeting between these teams, winning 61-51 as 14-point home favorites.  The Wolfpack will clearly be out for revenge in the rematch, and I look for them to not only cover as 7-point home dogs this time around, but to likely win this one outright.

Virginia has a two-game lead in the loss column over Duke in the ACC, so it can actually afford a loss here.  Now, the Cavaliers are without arguably their best player in Justin Anderson, who suffered a broken finger in his left shooting hand in Saturday's 52-47 home win over Louisville.

While many folks may not have heard of Anderson, this guy is an absolute stud and one of the most underrated players in the country.  He is second on the team with 13.4 points per game and first in the conference at 48.4 percent from 3-point range.  You just don't replace a guy like Anderson.

The Wolfpack (14-10) are squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and another win over a top-10 team would go a long way.  NC State beat Duke 87-75 at home four days after the loss in Virginia.  Including an overtime loss on January 25 to then-No. 8 Notre Dame, the Wolfpack have won four of seven in Raleigh against top 10 opponents.  They also had a 2-point home loss to UNC, so they have proven they can play with the ACC's elite at home this year.

NC State is a perfect 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 4.1 points per game in these situations.  The Wolfpack are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  NC State is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +12.5

Quietly, the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-9) have been playing some of the best basketball in the Big Ten over the past couple weeks.  Yet, the betting public and the oddsmakers continue to give them no respect as 12.5-point road underdogs to the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.

The Nittany Lions are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The lost by 6 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs, beat Rutgers by 28 as 7-point home favorites, beat Minnesota by 5 as 1.5-point home dogs, lost at Illinois by 2 as 6-point road dogs, lost at Maryland by 6 as 7.5-point road dogs, and beat Nebraska by 13 as 4-point home favorites during their six straight covers.

However, the Nittany Lions have really been competitive all season within the Big Ten.  While they are just 3-8 within the conference, seven of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  The only exception was a 17-point loss at Wisconsin as 18.5-point underdogs in the Big Ten opener, and they even covered the spread in that game.

Ohio State comes into this game way overvalued due to having won four of its last five games overall, which includes double-digit wins over Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.  The Buckeyes beat Rutgers by 19 on Sunday, meaning they only have two days of rest in between games.  Penn State last played on Saturday, so it will have three days off coming in, and that one extra day is a big advantage on a short turnaround.

There is one key loss here for the Buckeyes that I don't believe is getting factored into the line at all.  Second-leading scorer Marc Loving (11.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg) has been suspended for an undisclosed number of games.  Loving shoots 49.1% from the field and 53.2% from 3-point range, so his ability to space the floor for the Buckeyes has been absolutely huge.

With four starters back from last year's team that swept the season series with Ohio State, the Nittany Lions certainly have the confidence to pull off the upset again today.  They won 71-70 as 13-point road dogs, and then came back with a 65-63 home win as 5.5-point dogs in their two meetings with the Buckeyes last year.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (PENN ST) - after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games, with four starters returning from last season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season, only losing by an average of 2.3 points per game in this role.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They have done so behind what has been one of the league's best defenses during this stretch.  I look for another solid defensive performance from them tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Memphis' last 11 games overall.  It currently ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but has been much better than that of late.  The Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall, giving up an average of just 86.5 points per game during this stretch.

The Nets are no defensive juggernauts by any means, and Memphis may put up a decent point total, but I just don't expect this Brooklyn offense to have much success.  The Nets are a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 5 days.  I don't expect the fatigue to affect their defense, but it will affect their offense quite a bit.

Both of these teams like to play at slow paces.  Memphis ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging 94.1 possessions per game.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.  The Nets aren't going to look to run at all because of how tired they are right now.  This game will be played in the half court from start to finish, which definitely favors the UNDER.

The last five meetings between Brooklyn and Memphis have average 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.5.  Plus, this is the highest posted total set in this series in any of the last seven meetings.  That fact alone shows you there's some value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Nets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six games playing on 0 rest.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Nets last 23 road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. Eastern Conference.  These last four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Bulls UNDER 198

The Chicago Bulls certainly have an improved offense this season with Derrick Rose back healthy and the addition of Pau Gasol, but make no mistake about it, this team is still defense first.  That has really started to show here of late.

After a poor start to the season defensively, the Bulls have picked it up on that end of the floor of late.  They are 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 games overall.  They have allowed an average of just 92.3 points per game in their last four contests.

The Sacramento Kings have been a great UNDER bet here of late as well.  Indeed, they are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  Their defense has been respectable during this stretch as they've played the likes of Cleveland, Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Utah and Phoenix.

I would consider four of those six teams to be elite offensively, and they held five of those six to 102 points or less.  However, the reason they are on a 6-0 UNDER run is because their offense has been horrid.  The Kings are averaging just 89.7 points in their last six games, not once reaching the 100-point mark.

The Kings could be without two of their top three scorers tonight, which will only make matters more difficult for them.  Rudy Gay (19.9 ppg) missed Sunday's game with a sore left foot and is questionable to return.  Darren Collison (16.1 ppg, 5.6 apg) has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain and is doubtful to return against the Bulls.

The recent head-to-head history between these teams is what really has me excited about the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings as they've combined for 191, 181 and 169 points.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Sacramento is 10-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games overall.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -2

The Temple Owls (17-7) are a much different team today than the one that lost to Cincinnati 53-84 on the road on January 17th.  They have gotten fully healthy since, and they have been on an absolute tear as a result.

The Owls are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 25-point home win over South Florida, a 24-point road win at UCF, an 18-point home win over Tulane, a 13-point road win at South Florida, and a 1-point road win at Memphis.  Now, the Owls will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season to the Bearcats, and I fully expect them to get it at home tonight.

After all, Temple is 10-2 at home this year where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to arguably the top two teams in the AAC in Tulsa and Tulane by a combined 12 points.  Cincinnati is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  It has lost to UConn, Memphis and ECU on the road within AAC play.

The Bearcats are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Cincinnati is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC foes.  Take Temple Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +10

The LSU Tigers are exactly the type of team that has what it takes to upset the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats tonight.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 17-6 on the season.  I like their chances of giving the Wildcats a run for their money because of how they are built.

The Tigers actually have the two big men that can stand up to Kentucky's two big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, who just dominate most teams.  They won't be dominating LSU's Jordan Mickey (17.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 3.6 bpg) and Jarell Martin (16.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg).

The Wildcats have been vulnerable at times this season.  They needed overtime to beat both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and they are coming off a 7-point win at Florida where they trailed the majority of the game but pulled away late.  Remember, LSU beat Florida 79-61 on the road on January 20th.

The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Their two home losses came by a combined 8 points.  The home team has won five straight in this series.  Four of the last five meetings between Kentucky and LSU have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less.

LSU is 53-28 ATS in its last 81 games off a home win over a conference opponent.  Kentucky is 9-19 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 147.5

I am pretty certain that tonight's game between the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners is going to be a shootout.  These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the conference, and their recent meetings have been very high-scoring.

The Cyclones average 79.9 points per game on 48.9% shooting this year.  They look to push the ball every chance they get.  The Sooners are averaging a respectable 72.2 points per game on 44.9% shooting, but keep in mind they played a very tough non-conference schedule.

The OVER is 7-1 in Iowa State's last eight games overall.  They have combined with their last eight opponents for 147, 167, 148, 151, 175, 149, 165 and 113 points.  Oddsmakers just can't set the totals high enough for them, and they have failed to do so again tonight.

As stated before, this has been a very high-scoring series.  The Cyclones and Sooners have combined for 147 or more points in eight of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged 154.8 combined points per game in their last nine meetings.  They combined for 169 and 156 points in their two meetings last year.

The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The OVER is 53-25-1 in Cyclones last 79 games overall.  Iowa State is 9-0 to the OVER vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 18-2 in Iowa State's last 20 games versus good defensive teams that have allowed 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games.  Oklahoma is  7-0 to the OVER in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers +8.5

After seeing the Clippers get destroyed by the Thunder on Sunday in their first game without Blake Griffin, the betting public has been quick to jump on the Dallas Mavericks today.  That has created some excellent line value to pounce on the Clippers as 8.5-point road underdogs in this matchup.

Losing Griffin was a bit of a surprise as the news that he was out until after the All-Star Break wasn't announced until Sunday morning.  The Clippers obviously did not play well in their first game without him, but they'll make the proper adjustments heading into this game tonight.

Plus, I look for the Clippers to dig down a little deeper tonight to try and put an end to their four-game losing streak.  All four losses have come on the road to the Nets, Cavaliers, Raptors and Thunder, so they have obviously been dealt a brutal schedule.  This is the final game of a long seven-game road trip, and the Clippers will be motivated to try and end it on a high note.  With the All-Star Break coming up shortly, I don't expect fatigue to be a factor.

While the Clippers are undervalued due to having lost four straight, the Mavericks are overvalued after winning five of their last six. Well, their five victories have come against the likes of Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Sacramento and Portland.  The win over the Blazers came at home in overtime, and it represents the only playoff team they have beaten during this stretch. 

In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-5 straight up in their last six games against teams with winning records.  While the Griffin injury is big for the Clippers, the oddsmakers are discounting the Rajon Rondo injury for the Mavericks, which is nearly as big as the loss of Griffin for the Clippers.  It all adds up to the value being with the road underdog tonight.

The Clippers are 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with the Mavericks.  Their two losses have come by 6 points at home and by 7 points (in OT) on the road.  So, they have clearly had the Mavericks' number in this series here of late.  In fact, they have not lost by more than 7 points to Dallas in any of their last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 8.5-point spread.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this game, and we'll take advantage.  They have set the bar too high time and time again for both of these teams when it comes to the point total.

Indeed, the Nets are 31-19 to the UNDER this season, while the Bucks are 30-21 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Bucks' last 22 games overall, while the UNDER is 4-0 in Nets' last four games overall.  Yet, they continue to inflate the totals of both of these teams here tonight.

The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this season at 28-23 is because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.1 points per 100 possessions.  Amazingly, they have allowed 95 or fewer points in 16 of their last 23 games overall.

The Bucks figure to shut down a Brooklyn team that ranks 24th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 100.0 points per 100 possessions.  Another reason to love the UNDER here is because the Nets play at a slow tempo.  They rank 25th in the league in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.

Many amateur bettors will see the final score of the first meeting between these teams this season and jump on the OVER.  Milwaukee beat Brooklyn 122-118 in double-overtime back on November 19th.  Well, that game was tied 95-95 at the end of regulation for 190 combined points.

Brooklyn is 12-2 to the UNDER in road games following a loss this season.  Milwaukee is 12-2 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less this year.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Nets last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10

I realize the Orlando Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back after their tough 97-98 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  However, I believe they will be motivated enough to push through the fatigue.  After all, this is still a very young team, so back-to-backs don't bother them as much.

The reason the Magic will be motivated is because they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Wizards.  The Wizards are 3-0 against the Magic this season, but those three wins have come by 7, 5 and 2 points.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

Don't be surprised to see the Magic pull off the upset tonight with the way they have been playing here of late.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs, by 1 to Chicago as 6-point dogs, and they also beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point favorites.  As you can see, they have hung right with some of the best teams in the league here of late.

The Wizards are not playing well at all right now, which is why they should not be laying double-digit points to the Magic.  Washington is 1-5 straight up in its last six games overall.  It is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, yet it continues to be overvalued tonight against the Magic laying such a big number.

The Magic are a sensational 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  This trend just goes to show their ability to hang with good teams on the road.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Magic Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -6

The Baylor Bears are easily one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They continue to get better and better with each game, and I look for them to blow the Oklahoma State Cowboys out of the building tonight at home.

The Bears have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall right in the heart of their Big 12 schedule.  Their lost four wins could not have been any more impressive.  They beat Oklahoma by 11 at home, Texas by 23 at home, TCU by 20 at home, and West Virginia by 18 on the road.  If that's not an impressive run, then I don't know what is.

Yes, their lone loss over their past five games came at Oklahoma State by a final of 53-64, but that will actually work in their favor here because they'll be out for revenge.  Meanwhile, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cowboys not only because they have already beaten the Bears, but also because they are coming off their biggest win of the season Saturday in a come-from-behind 67-62 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks.  It's only human nature for them to let up off such a big win.

Baylor is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game.  Its only home loss this year came to Kansas by a single point 55-56.  Oklahoma State is just 2-5 in true road games this season.  It has lost to South Carolina by 26, Kansas by 10, Oklahoma by 17 and Kansas State by 10 in four of its five road losses.

Baylor is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Oklahoma State since 2007.  It has won its last eight home meetings by 6, 10, 41, 19, 13, 6, 8, and 4 points.  As you can see, each of the last seven wins came by 6 points or more, and by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The Bears are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Baylor.  The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Bears are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Oklahoma State is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

Due to owning the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, the Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are only 2-point road underdogs against one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Memphis Grizzlies today when it should be much higher.

Atlanta is overvalued due to going 17-0 in the month of January.  This is a team that has continued to win, but keep in mind that nine of its last 10 games have been at home.  The only road game during this stretch resulted in a 100-115 loss at New Orleans.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks, too.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season as they beat the Golden State Warriors 124-116 on Friday night.  The Warriors own the best record in the West, so it's only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown off such a huge win that they believe validated them.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, come into this game hungry for a victory after blowing a late lead on Friday to lose in Minnesota 89-90.  That was a rare loss for this team.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  That includes wins over the likes of the Suns (twice), Blazers, Raptors, Mavericks and Thunder.

Memphis has been playing its most suffocating defense of the season here of late.  It has allowed 94 or fewer points in eight of its last nine games overall, giving up an average of 86.3 points per game during this stretch.  Nothing is coming easy against this team, which features three of the best defenders at their positions in Mike Concey, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol.

Memphis is 21-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 14-5 against the East this season, including 8-1 at home.  Zach Randolph has averaged 20.1 points and 14.9 boards in his last eight home games.  Atlanta did beat Memphis 96-86 at home in their first meeting, but the Grizzlies were on the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and were without Randolph for most of it.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies will be out for revenge in this one.

Memphis is 73-48 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Michigan/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  They have gone 16-7 on the season to put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have done so behind one of the best offenses in the nation.

Indeed, the Hoosiers are putting up 80.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting this year, including 40.9% from 3-point range, which is a ridiculous percentage for a team.  Shooting the 3-ball is going to work to Indiana's advantage because their opponent plays zone defense.

Star freshman James Blackmon Jr. missed Indiana's last game against Wisconsin with an ankle injury.  He leads the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and is second in rebounding (5.2 rpg), so it was a big loss for them.  Blackmon Jr. is expected to return today.  I just do not believe the Michigan Wolverines have the firepower to keep up with the Hoosiers in this one.

Michigan is without two of its top three scorers in Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg) and Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 ppg).  Zak Irvin (13.2 ppg) is the only healthy Wolverine left who is averaging more than 6.2 points per game.  That's bad news for Michigan today as they are going to have to put up points to hang with the high-powered Hoosiers.

Indiana has been virtually unbeatable at home this season.  It is 13-1 inside Assembly Hall where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game.  It is 4-0 at home within the Big Ten with wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers.

Michigan did pretty well for a stretch there without LeVert, but it is also without Walton Jr. now, and this team is going to continue to struggle because they don't have the talent to make up for it.  They lost by 10 at Michigan State and then by 18 at home to Iowa last time out.  I believe more losses like that one to the Hawkeyes are going to be the norm for them going forward.

The Hoosiers have a big advantage in rest and preparation heading into this one.  They have had four days off since losing at Wisconsin 78-92 on Tuesday.  They will also be motivated or a win after losing three of their last four with all three losses coming on the road.  The Wolverines have only had two days of rest in between games since losing to Iowa 54-72 on Thursday.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Hoosiers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings with the Wolverines, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings.  The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Indiana Sunday.

20* Clippers/Thunder NBA on ABC GAME OF THE MONTH on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high with this total this afternoon between the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder.  Both teams will be inspired to get after it defensively because each is coming off losses due to poor performances defensively.

The Clippers lost at Toronto 107-123 last time out, while the Thunder lost to the Pelicans 113-116 at home.  These were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams, and I fully expect both head coach Doc Rivers and head coach Mark Brooks to let their teams know about how unacceptable they were.

The Clippers have allowed 100 or fewer points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Thunder have allowed 100 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  That just goes to show how uncharacteristic those defensive efforts really were as they were an aberration rather than a normality.

What stands out to me is that this has been a low-scoring series here of late in comparison to today's 210.5-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scored of 183, 202, 209 and 200 points.  That's an average of 198.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points less than today's posted total.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Clippers last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in Clippers last 30 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Clippers last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last five vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +15.5

At 16-6 on the season, including 12-1 at home, the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  At 7-16 on the season, including 1-9 on the road, the betting public wants nothing to do with the South Florida Bulls at this point in the season.  These perceptions have created a ton of line value for pouncing on the undervalued Bulls today.

This is an awful spot for Cincinnati.  It is coming off a huge upset road win at SMU on Thursday, winning 62-54 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Off such a big win, and with a big game at Temple on deck, the Bearcats are in a prime spot for a letdown here against lesser competition.  They won't be motivated at all to face South Florida.

Plus, the Bearcats are a tired, unprepared team for this game.  They played on Thursday, meaning that they have just one day of rest and preparation to get ready for the Bulls.  Meanwhile, South Florida last played on Wednesday, giving them two days to prepare for the Bearcats.  I know it's only one day extra, but on such a short turnaround, one day can be huge.

The Bulls have been pretty competitive this season, especially here of late, despite their poor record.  Each of their last four losses have come by 13 points or less as they've gone 3-1 ATS.  They lost at UConn by 13 as 14-point dogs, at home to SMU by 11 as 11.5-point dogs, at Tulsa by 7 as 14.5-point dogs, and at home against Temple by 13 as 7.5-point dogs in their last four games, respectively.  After playing that gauntlet of a schedule, they are certainly battle-tested and ready to face a team like Cincinnati tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less.  USF won 46-45 as 2-point home favorites in 2012, lost 53-61 (OT) as 12.5-point road dogs in 2013, lost 54-61 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013, and lost 45-50 as 15.5-point road dogs in 2014.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (CINCINNATI) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Florida is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last two years.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bulls are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing the Thunder in a home-and-home situation on Wednesday and Friday.

After losing to the Thunder 91-102 at home on Wednesday, the Pelicans came back with a huge 116-113 road win last night as Anthony Davis hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.  After such an emotional win over the team that's trailing them in the Western Conference standings, the Pelicans are in a clear letdown spot here tonight.

New Orleans will be extremely tired for this game tonight, while Chicago comes in well-rested and ready to go.  The Bulls last played on Wednesday, so they have had two days off in between games.  They also come in hungry for a win after dropping each of their last three games, all on the road to the Lakers, Suns and Rockets.

Chicago is one of the few teams that has actually played better on the road than at home this season.  It is 17-9 in all road games this year.  That includes recent road wins over the Mavericks and Warriors, who are two of the better teams in the Western Conference.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to New Orleans.  The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +13

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country this season.  Head coach Oliver Purnell finally has his players in place and an experienced bunch with four starters back from last year's team.

The Blue Deamons have gone a respectable 12-12 this season.  However, they have really stepped up their play in Big East action.  They are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in all Big East games this year.  They barely didn't cover in the two games they failed to do so, losing by 11 at Providence as 10-point dogs and by 13 to Villanova as 11.5-point dogs.

DePaul has beaten Marquette by 3 as 5-point home dogs, Xavier by 3 as 10.5-point home dogs, Creighton by 10 as 10-point road dogs, St. John's by 4 as 6-point home dogs, Seton Hall by 4 as 9.5-point road dogs, and Seton Hall by 13 as 3-point home dogs.  The Blue Demons have only lost one of their 11 Big East games by more than 13 points, which was a 17-point loss at Villanova as 21.5-point dogs.  That stat alone makes for a 10-1 system backing them pertaining to this 13-point spread.

Butler is a quality team at 17-6 on the season.  However, that record has been bolstered by several close wins this year.  In fact, eight of Butler's 10 Big East games have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Six of its last nine games have actually been decided by 4 points or less.  I look for this contest to go right down to the wire as well.

Home-court advantage meant nothing between these teams last year.  The road team went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  DePaul won at Butler (99-94, OT) as 9-point underdogs.  Butler returned the favor with a 79-46 road win in the rematch with the line set at a pick 'em.

The Blue Demons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this year.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Blue Demons.  Take DePaul Saturday.

20* Baylor/WVU Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -4

The West Virginia Mountaineers (18-4) are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They aren't getting the respect they deserve as only 4-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today.  I'll take advantage and back them at this short price in what I fully expect to be a blowout in favor of the home team.

The Mountaineers come into this game highly motivated for a victory following an ugly 52-71 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday.  Bob Huggins was not pleased with his team as he emptied his bench and 11 different players saw double-digit minutes.  I look for the starters to get the memo and to respond to Huggins in a big way today.

West Virginia is 8-2 at home this season where it outscoring teams by an average of 16.8 points per game.  The Mountaineers have a huge home-court advantage within the Big 12 because it's such a far trip for the road teams within the conference.  It has beaten the likes of Oklahoma (by 21, Texas Tech (by 19) and VA Tech (by 31) at home this year.  Its two home losses have come by a combined 3 points.

Baylor is also an improved team this year, but one that has done most of its damage at home.  The Bears are 13-1 at home compared to 3-3 in true road games.  They have lost to Oklahoma (by 10), Kansas State (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 11) on the road in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 on the road within the conference with their only win coming at lowly TCU (by 7).

Scott Drew is 9-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent as the coach of Baylor.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  WVU has also had an extra day to prepare for this game after last playing on Tuesday, while Baylor last played on Wednesday.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Rockets UNDER 202.5

At 27-22 on the season, the young Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this year.  The reason they have been so successful this season is because first-year head coach Jason Kidd has gotten his team to play defense, and he also has the luxury of having some freakishly lengthy athletes on his roster.

This may be the best defensive team the Bucks have ever had.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 98.7 points per 100 possessions.  The UNDER is 15-5 in Bucks' last 20 games overall.  They have allowed fewer than 100 points in 14 of their last 20 games, and 105 or fewer in all 20..

The Rockets are no slouches defensively, either.  In fact, they rank right behind Milwaukee in 3rd place in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Rockets' last five games overall as they have combined with four of their last five opponents for 193 points or fewer.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Friday nights are 204-125 (62%) since 1996.  Houston is 18-7 to the UNDER in its last 25 home games.  Milwaukee is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 games when playing on one days' rest.

Houston is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.  We're seeing an average of 187.3 combined points per game int his spot.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Timberwolves UNDER 195.5

I look for the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves to take part in a defensive battle tonight in Minnesota.  These teams have consistently played in low-scoring affairs in recent meetings, and I look for that trend to continue in this one.

Indeed, the UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in this series, including a PERFECT 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota dating back to 2011.  The Grizzlies and Timberwolves have combined for 195 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 meetings overall, which would be an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.5.

Memphis continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency this season despite having some key injuries to several of their best defenders throughout the course of the season.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are giving up just 85.9 points per game during this stretch.

Minnesota has had a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket here of late.  It has scored 94 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games overall.  It is scoring a woeful 91.3 points per game during this 10-game stretch.  The Timberwolves also rank 27th in offensive efficiency, averaging 99.0 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 103-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two years.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Grizzlies last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Hawks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 214.5

This is a battle between the top team in the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors up against the top team in the Eastern Conference in the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a highly-anticipated game to say the least, and when two great teams like this get together, defense usually wins out.

The biggest reason both of these teams sit atop the standings in their respective conferences is because of the way they play defense.  The Warriors rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks rank 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.0 points per 100 possessions.

The reason this number has been set so high is because both teams have played in some high-scoring affairs here of late.  The Warriors are 6-2 to the OVER in their last eight games overall, and they're coming off a 242-point effort with the Mavericks.  The Hawks are 5-1 to the OVER in their last six games overall.  These recent OVER streaks for both teams have forced oddsmakers to inflate this total, providing us with some excellent value to swoop in and back the UNDER.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings in comparison to this 214.5-point total.  The Warriors and Hawks have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1-1 during this stretch.  They have combined to average 190.6 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 41-18 in Warriors last 59 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic are highly motivated to put an end to their currently 10-game losing streak.  Nine of those 10 losses have come against playoff contenders, so the streak has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Magic finally get a break in their schedule tonight as they host the lowly Los Angeles Lakers.

Orlando has been playing some very good basketball here of late despite losing.  It went on the road and played Oklahoma City to a 97-104 game as 10.5-point underdogs.  It then went to San Antonio and only lost 103-110 as 13.5-point dogs last time out.

The Lakers haven't been playing any better than the Magic here of late.  They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-8 in its last eight road games with all eight losses coming by 4 points or more, including seven by 8 or more points.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  Not only are the Lakers without Kobe Bryant, they are also playing without starting center Jordan Hill.  Meanwhile, the Magic are pretty much at full strength health-wise.

The Lakers are 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog this season.  Los Angeles is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +3

The Dallas Mavericks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They are coming off a 114-128 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Mavericks blew an early 20-plus point lead as they were eventually blown out in the 4th quarter.

After playing the top team in the West last night, this is clearly a hangover spot for the Mavericks.  Plus, they'll be running on fumes.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are short-handed right now.  Their bench has no depth ever since trading for Rajon Rondo and sending Brandon Wright and Jae Crowder away.  Now, Rondo is out indefinitely with an injury.  The Mavericks as a whole just aren't going to have enough energy to put forth a very good effort tonight.

Yes, the Sacramento Kings aren't playing great coming in as they have lost nine of their last 10 games overall.  However, all nine of their losses have come against playoff contenders, including a 104-108 (OT) home loss to the Mavericks back on January 13th.  That sets the Kings up for a revenge spot here.

Yes, the Kings have lost five straight meetings with the Mavericks, but they have played them extremely tough in all five meetings.  They lost all five of those games by 8 points or less.  They lost by 4, 8, 2, 3, and 4 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  They've obviously proven they can play the Mavs tough, and given this horrible situation for Dallas, I look for the Kings to get over the hump and get a win in this series tonight.

Dallas is 5-14 ATS after allowing 105 or more points this season.  The Mavericks are 8-17 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this year.  Dallas is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -6.5

The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country.  They currently sit at 18-4 and are riding an eight-game winning streak that has seen seven of those eight victories by 9 points or more.  Their last loss was a 50-56 setback at tonight's opponent, Cincinnati, so the Mustangs won't be lacking any motivation as they'll be out for revenge.

SMU is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.3 points per game.  It is 9-1 within the conference, outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game.  This may be the best team in the AAC as it's a toss-up between the Mustangs and Tulsa.

Cincinnati is a quality squad at 15-6 on the year.  However, it has done most of its damage at home, where it is 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road, where the Bearcats are 2-4 in true road games.  They have lost three of their last four.  They lost by 6 at UConn as 4.5-point dogs, by 13 at Memphis as a pick 'em, and by 4 at East Carolina as 10.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last two seasons.  The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  SMU beat Cincinnati 76-55 at home last year as 4-point favorites.

The Bearcats are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Cincinnati is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games.  The Mustangs are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Plays against road of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1997.  SMU is 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last two seasons.  Take SMU Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +11.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-11) have gotten better as the season has gone on under head coach Jason Capel.  He had the luxury of returning four starters from last year's team, and this experience is finally starting to pay off in recent weeks.

Appalachian State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  All four wins were very impressive.  It beat Georgia State by 5 as 11.5-point home underdogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, South Alabama by 11 as 4-point home favorites, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road underdogs.

The reason the Mountaineers are catching so many points here is because they are coming off an ugly 37-point loss at Georgia Southern last time out.  Well, Georgia Southern is 9-0 at home this season, and that was simply as bad as the Mountaineers could play.  I look for them to get back to the way they were playing during their four-game winning streak prior against lesser competition tonight in Louisiana-Lafayette.

The Rajin' Cajuns are just 12-10 this season and have taken a big step back from last year after losing their star player to the NBA. While they did get off to a solid 10-5 start this year, it has been all downhill ever since.  Lafayette is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes home losses to South Alabama by 7 as 13-point favorites and Louisiana-Monroe by 2 as 7-point favorites.

Yes, Louisiana-Lafayette did beat Appalachian State by 16 on the road in the first meeting this season back on January 5th.  Well, that was back when the Rajin' Cajuns were playing solid basketball, while the Mountaineers were looking to find their footing.  I expect Appalachian State to be out for revenge in this one.

The Mountaineers have actually played their best basketball on the road this year.  They are a respectable 5-8 in true road games. They beat Virginia Tech by 2 as 18-point road dogs, beat Jacksonville by 11, only lost to Georgia Tech by 13 as 17-point road dogs, lost to Charlotte by 10 as 15-point road dogs, and played Alabama to a 1-point game as 18-point road dogs.  They also beat Arkansas State by 1 as 8-point road dogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road dogs.  If that's not evidence that this team has played well on the road, then I don't know what is.

Appalachian State is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog over the last three years.  Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 109-61 (64.1%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern +4

The Georgia Southern Eagles are arguably the most underrated team in the entire country.  This was the case for this program in football this past season, and it has carried over to their basketball team as well.

The Eagles are 15-4 this season with their only four losses coming to Illinois by 9 as 22.5-point road dogs, UCF by 2 as 4-point road dogs, Texas-Arlington by 1 as 4-point road dogs, and Troy by 4 as 5.5-point road favorites.  The Eagles are a sensational 11-1-2 ATS in their 14 lined games this season, which just goes to show how undervalued they have really been.

You may have noticed that all four of their losses have come on the road.  Well, the Eagles are a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  Not only are they winning, they are absolutely dominating.  They have outscored their nine opponents at home by an average of 23.3 points per game this year.

Georgia State is a quality team at 15-7 on the season, but it has been overvalued for much of the season, going just 9-12 ATS.  It has done most of its damage at home, where it is 9-1.  The Panthers are just 4-6 in true road games this year. 

They lost to Iowa State by 23 as 10-point dogs, to Colorado State by 10 as 6-point dogs, to Old Dominion by 4 as 3-point dogs, to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 17 as 4.5-point dogs, to Lafayette by 4 as 2.5-point favorites, and to Appalachian State by 5 as 11.5-point favorites.  Three of their four road wins have come by 6 points or less.

 Home-court advantage has been massive in this series in recent years.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings dating back to 2009.  Georgia Southern has upset Georgia State in its last two home meetings.  It won 68-64 in 2012 as 2-point underdogs, and 74-72 in 2010 as 5-point dogs.

Georgia State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.  Georgia Southern is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS when playing against  a team with a winning record this season.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Sun Belt foes.  Bet Georgia Southern Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +11.5

At 16-5 on the season, the LSU Tigers come into this game overvalued as 11.5-point home favorites over the Auburn Tigers (10-11).  I'll take advantage and back the road team as double-digit underdogs in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Auburn has been getting better as the season has gone on under first-year head coach, Bruce Pearl.  Yes, Auburn has lost four of its last five games coming in, but it has gone 3-2 ATS as all five games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 71-68 home win over South Carolina as 2.5-point dogs, a 55-57 road loss to Alabama as 11-point dogs, and a 63-71 road loss to Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs.

LSU is certainly improved this season, but with this improvement has come expectations from oddsmakers that I don't believe it can live up to tonight.  After all, seven of LSU's last eight games have been decided by 7 points or less, so it has consistently played in games that have gone right down to the wire, and I don't expect tonight to be any exception.

Not only has Auburn's last five games been decided by 10 points or less, and seven of LSU's last eight games been decided by 7 points or less, but this has been a closely-contested series as well.  Indeed, five of the last six meetings between LSU and Auburn have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The only exception was a 67-52 home win by Auburn in 2012.

Auburn is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with LSU, and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings.  Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight visits to LSU dating back to 2006.  Take Auburn Thursday.

25* Ohio Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee State +15.5

The Tennessee State Tigers are just 5-18 on the season.  They have also gone 0-12 on the road.  While that may be concerning, the fact of the matter is that this team is way undervalued right now because of its record, and has been for a couple weeks now.

Indeed, Tennessee State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It lost at SIU Edwardsville by 7 as 13-point underdogs, at Austin Peay by 1 as 11-point dogs, at Murray State by 19 as 22.5-point dogs and at home to Belmont by 8 as 13-point dogs.  It is coming off back-to-back home wins over Tennessee Tech by 8 as 7-point dogs, and Jacksonville State by 2 as 4-point dogs.

At 10-14 this season, Morehead State has no business being this heavily favored over Tennessee State tonight.  The Eagles have only won one of their last eight games by more than 13 points.  They have really struggled at home here of late.  Indeed, they are just 1-6 SU in their last seven home games overall. 

They lost to East Tennessee State by 4 as 6-points favorites, by 2 to Oakland as 6.5-point favorites, by 23 to Northern Kentucky, by 9 to Murray State as 3-point dogs, by 3 to Eastern Illinois as 6-point favorites, and by 9 to Eastern Kentucky as 1-point favorites.  Simply put, the Eagles have no home-court advantage this year.

Home court has meant little in this series as the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings.  Tennessee State went into Morehead State and came away with a 70-68 victory as 12-point underdogs last year.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Tennessee State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Tigers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  The Eagles are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Morehead State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  Tennessee State is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 9-0 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Bet Tennessee State Thursday.

15* Mavs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 217

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors.  Look for both teams to bring their "A" games defensively on this National TV stage as this game will be televised on ESPN.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings when comparing the results with the total sets.  The Mavericks and Warriors are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games overall.  The only exception was a 122-120 overtime win for Golden State in the final meeting of 2013-14 in a game that was tied 108-108 at the end of regulation.

Not counting overtime, the Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last 13 meetings.  They have combined for 203, 216, 193, 188, 202, 207, 197, 180, 198, 215, 198, 191 and 174 points in their last 13 meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 197.1 points per game in their last 13 meetings.

The Mavericks are playing without starting point guard Rajon Rondo right now.  They could also be without backup PG Devin Harris, who is questionable with an knee injury.  Their offense is going to have a hard time operating against a Golden State defense that ranks 1st in the league in efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

Dallas is 13-4 to the UNDER when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season.  Golden State is 23-11 to the UNDER In home games after a combined score of 205 or more points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Mavericks last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Mavericks last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190

The Memphis Grizzlies square off against the Utah Jazz tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  Both of these teams like to slow it down and play at below-average league paces, and that will help aid the UNDER tonight.

Utah ranks 28th in the league in pace, averaging just 92.9 possessions per game.  Memphis is just ahead of the Jazz at 26th in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.  It's no wonder that these teams usually play in low-scoring affairs when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Jazz and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 188, 178, 182, 198, 156, 174 and 185 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 180.1 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.  This 190-point total is also the second-highest total in the last seven meetings, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER here.

The Jazz have been a much better defensive team since giving underrated big man Rudy Gobert more playing time.  They have held 12 of their last 17 opponents to fewer than 100 points.  The Grizzlies have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 98 points or fewer.  They are giving up just 85.3 points per game in their last seven contests, which has coincided with the healthy return of defensive stopper Tony Allen.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after two straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls over the last two years.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Utah.  These five trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +4.5

The Air Force Falcons were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season due to the return of four starters from last year.  After a respectable 6-3 start, it has been all downhill for the Falcons as they currently sit at 9-12.

Well, the good news about their recent poor play is that it has created some excellent line value to back them tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs to the New Mexico Lobos.  The Falcons are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, but there's a good explanation for their recent poor play.

The Falcons have been without leading scorer Max Yon (15.3 PPG, 50.6% shooting) for each of their last six games due to personal reasons.  He is the only player on the Falcons averaging double-digits scoring, so it's no surprise that they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS without him.

Well, Yon is expected to return tonight, and he makes all the difference in the world for this team.  The first time they played New Mexico this season, they lost 48-60 in their first game without Yon on January 14th.  Having Yon back and playing at home this time around, I look for the Falcons to likely pull off the upset over the Lobos, but we'll take the 4.5 points for added insurance.

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball as its is 9-2 at home.  However, it has been a different story on the road.  The Lobos are just 5-5 in all road games this year.  Their last three road wins have come by a combined 10 points over New Mexico State, Utah State and UNLV, or by an average of 3.3 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Air Force and New Mexico dating back to 2012.  Look for this trend to extend to 7-0 after tonight.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Bucks UNDER 192.5

Quietly, the Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They certainly aren't doing it with offense as they average just 98.4 points per game on the year.  They have scored fewer than 100 points in 13 of their last 15 games overall.

The Bucks are winning because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 98.7 points per 100 possessions.  They have held 14 of their last 19 opponents to 95 or fewer points.  As a result, the UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks' last 19 games overall, yet the oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust.

The Lakers have really struggled offensively since losing Kobe Bryant to a season-ending injury.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the Lakers' last six games overall.  They have scored 92 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  They did score 123 in a double-OT win over Chicago, but that game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation.  Not counting overtime, the Lakers are averaging 87.0 points per game in their last six games.

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Lakers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Lakers last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Lakers last 17 road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -6

The Texas Longhorns are in major need of a victory tonight.  I look for them to come out highly motivated and to put away the Oklahoma State Cowboys by 7-plus points to cover this generous 6-point spread Wednesday.

Texas has lost three straight coming in, and at 14-7 on the season, it is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament without a big finish to the season.  Its last three losses have come at home to Kansas, and on the road to Iowa State and Baylor, so the schedule has as much to do with its recent struggles as anything.

The Longhorns return home tonight where they are 9-3 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  They take on an Oklahoma State team with an identical 14-7 record, but one that has done most of its damage at home, where it is 10-2.  It has been a much different story on the road for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Oklahoma State is 1-5 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game.  It has lost its last three road games in blowout fashion, all by double-digits.  It lost at Kansas by 10 as 7-point dogs, at Oklahoma by 17 as 6.5 points dogs, and at Kansas State by 10 as 2.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Texas and Oklahoma State.  In fact, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings with all seven victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Cowboys are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to Texas.  This will be a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well to add to the motivation after losing by 11 at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this year.

The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games as an underdog of 6 points or less.  The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Michigan -4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They still are getting no respect from the books as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Bowling Green Falcons tonight.

With five returning starters to work with, head coach Keno Davis has led the Chippewas to a 15-4 record this season.  What really stands out is how dominant they have been at home.  They are 12-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in home lines games this seaosn, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 24.1 points per game.

Bowling Green is a solid team at 13-6 SU and 12-3 ATS on the season.  The Falcons have been undervalued up until this point, but they are getting too much love from the books as only 4.5-point road dogs here.  After all, the Falcons are just 4-4 straight up on the road this season, which includes a 10-point loss to Western Kentucky and a 17-point loss to Akron.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the only exception being a 54-53 win by Central Michigan as 11.5-point road underdogs in 2012.  Otherwise, the home team has won the other four meetings by 5 points or more.  The Chippewas are 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Falcons.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have underachieved this season.  They returned all but one key player from last year's 27-win team.  Many expected them to run away with the MAC, but after a 13-8 start, that's not going to happen.  However, this slow start has created some nice value to back the Rockets going forward, especially tonight.

The Rockets are certainly better than their 13-8 record would indicate.  Unfortunately, they have come out on the short end of the stick in too many close games.  Seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less with the only exception being a 17-point loss at Duke as 20-point underdogs.  Five of their eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer.

Toledo has started to show signs of what it is capable of here recently.  It has won three straight, including an 80-69 road win at Northern Illinois last time out.  I look for this solid play to continue tonight against Eastern Michigan.

The Eagles are off to a solid 14-7 start this season, but they have done most of their damage at home, where they are 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road.  The Eagles are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 6.4 points per game.  Toledo is 8-3 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  In fact, the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Five of those six victories came by 8 points or more, including four by double-digits.  Toledo is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Eastern Michigan, winning by 15, 11, 11, 8 and 25 points.

Eastern Michigan is 0-8 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 25-50 ATS in their last 75 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  EMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Toledo.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Toledo Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +11

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Illinois Fighting Illini tonight.  The Scarlet Knights come into this game undervalued due to having lost six straight.  However, four of those losses came by single-digits, so they have at least been competitive.

The Fighting Illini are a solid team at 14-8.  Unfortunately, they have been dealing with a ton of injuries and are now down three starters from last year.  They had five coming into this year, but now they are down to two with leading scorer Rayvonte Rice out, along with Tracy Abrams and Aaron Cosby.

Illinois has really struggled in Big Ten play.  It is just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in conference action this season, which has pretty much coincided with all of the injuries.  In fact, all four of its wins came by single-digits, so it has yet to beat a Big Ten team by 10 points or more.

Rutgers has shown me a lot against some really good teams this year.  It beat Wisconsin 67-62 as 15-point home dogs, only lost at Maryland by 8 as 14-point dogs, only lost at Minnesota by 9 as 12.5-point dogs, and only lost at Indiana by 8 as 12-point dogs.  Those four performances alone make me know that the Scarlet Knights can hang in this one.

Illinois is 0-8 ATS in Tuesday night games over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 4-13 ATS in home games after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last three years.  Illinois is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1

The New York Knicks come into this game against the Boston Celtics playing their best basketball of the season.  As a result, they are showing awesome value as only 1-point home favorites over the Celtics in this one.

Indeed, the Knicks are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This run has coincided with a healthy return of Carmelo Anthony, as well as the additions of key role players Langston Galloway and Lance Thomas.  The Knicks are 4-0 in their last four home games with a 9-point win over the Pelicans, a 7-point win over the Magic, an 8-point win over the Thunder, and a 12-point win over the Lakers.

The Boston Celtics have pretty much waved the white flag with all of the players they have traded away this season, including Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green.  They are struggling here of late, going 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 12 at Minnesota, by 6 at home to Houston, and by 8 at home to Miami.

This has been a one-sided series here of late to say the least.  The Knicks are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in thier last three meetings with the Celtics despite playing two of those three on the road.  They won 114-88 at home, 116-92 on the road, and 101-95 on the road in those three meetings, outscoring the Celtics by an average of 18.7 points per game.

New York is 21-9 ATS when playing against a bad team (win percentage 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 11-2 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 games against the spread over the last three years.  The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's +6

The St. John's Red Storm (14-7) will be out for revenge on the Butler Bulldogs (16-6) Tuesday night.  They already lost a heartbreaker to the Bulldogs by a final of 69-73 as 3.5-point favorites on January 3rd in their first meeting.  As 6-point underdogs in a revenge role here, the Red Storm are showing great value.

St. John's returned four starters from last year's team, and it currently is on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament and needing a signature win.  That's especially the case after opening 3-6 in Big East play, but four of those losses have come by single-digits, including three by 4 points or fewer.  The Red Storm are coming off a very complete performance in a 75-66 win over Providence last time out.

Butler comes into this game overavlued due to having gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Bulldogs have a knack for playing in close games as well.  While they are 6-3 in Big East play, four of their six wins have come by 4 points or fewer. In fact, six of their last eight games have been decided by 4 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.

Last year, the Red Storm swept the season series with the Bulldogs in blowout fashion.  They won 69-52 on the road and 77-52 at home.  The Red Storm are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win.  St. John's is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with St. John's Tuesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +6

The No. 14 Northern Iowa Panthers come into this game way overvalued due to their 20-2 record on the season.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Panthers, who moved into a first-place tied with Wichita State in the MVC after a huge win over the weekend.

The Panthers put an end to the Shockers' 30-game conference winning streak with a 70-54 home victory on Saturday.  It's only human nature of them to suffer a letdown following such a big victory.  I look for them to stumble tonight and to likely lose this game outright.

Despite being just 11-11 on the season, Indiana State has really stepped up its game in conference play.  It is 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS against MVC opponents this season.  Two of its three losses have come by 6 points or fewer, so only once in 10 conference games has it lost by more than 6 points.

One of those losses was a 60-66 loss at Northern Iowa as 14-point underdogs on January 21st.  If the Sycamores can stay within 6 points of the Panthers on the road, they certainly can do so at home.  They will be out for revenge in this game to add to their motivation.  Plus, the Sycamores are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Panthers.  Both of their losses came by 6 points or less.  They have only lost by more than 6 points once in their last nine meetings with Northern Iowa.

Plays against a road team (N IOWA) - excellent defensive team (less than 40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after two straight games making 50% of their shots or better are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Northern Iowa is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Sycamores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Indiana State Tuesday.

15* Indiana/Wisconsin ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +15

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game overvalued due to their Top 10 ranking and 19-2 record.  They are coming off two big road wins over Michigan (in OT) and Iowa (by 11), and the betting public has been all over them and continues to be tonight.

At 16-6, the Indiana Hoosiers still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the country, and they can score with anyone.  The Hoosiers are 6-3 in Big Ten play, and they are scoring 80.3 points per game while shooting 47.8% from the field on the season.

The Hoosiers have played the Badgers very tough throughout the years.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less.  Sure, the Badgers have won seven of those eight games, but they just haven't been able to blow out the Hoosiers.  I don't look for that to start tonight.

Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 3-11 ATS in home games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite over the last two years.  The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS In their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Badgers are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Indiana Tuesday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

The No. 9 Kansas Jayhawks host the No. 15 Iowa State Cyclones on Monday in one of the biggest games of the Big 12 this season.  I look for this contest to go right down to the wire with the Cyclones having an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

Iowa State already handed Kansas its only Big 12 loss this season, and it has its sights set on winning the conference.  A win over the Jayhawks today would go a long way in helping the Cyclones accomplish that feat.  They beat the Jayhawks 86-81 at home on January 17th despite going just 15-of-26 (57.7%) from the free throw line.

Yes, Kansas has won nine straight at home over Iowa State, but the Cyclones easily could have won a couple recent meetings at Allen Fieldhouse.  They have lost three of their last four trips to Kansas by 11 points or less, including one in overtime where the Jayhawks banked in a 3 at the buzzer to force the extra session. 

The Jayhawks are more vulnerable than they have been in a while, and this is arguably the best Iowa State team in program history.  All four of Iowa State's losses this year have come by single-digits with a 9-point loss to Maryland, a 4-point loss to South Carolina, a 1-point loss to Baylor, and a 5-point loss to Texas Tech.

Kansas has ugly losses to Kentucky by 32 and to Temple by 25.  It also has some narrow victories in Big 12 play with a 1-point win over Baylor, a 7-point win over Oklahoma and a 3-point win over TCU.  I just don't believe this Kansas team has what it takes to blow out Iowa State, not even at home.

The Cyclones are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Bill Self is 26-40 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game as the coach of Kansas.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

I fully expect the Atlanta Hawks' 19-game winning streak to come to an end tonight on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans.  I'll just take the points for some added insurance in case it's a close game.

The Hawks have been overvalued for the last week-plus after setting an NBA record for most consecutive ATS covers with 15 in a row to start this 19-game streak.  However, they have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4.  They only beat Minnesota by 12 as 17.5-point favorites, Brooklyn by 11 as 14-point favorites, Portland by 6 as 5-point favorites, and Philadelphia by 6 as 16.5-point favorites.

The Hawks have won each of their last seven at home, but now they'll have to hit the road tonight against a New Orleans team that has been awesome at home this year.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 16-6 straight up and 14-7-1 ATS in all home games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 6.8 points per game at home.

The Pelicans come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat the Lakers (by 16), Mavericks (by 3), 76ers (by 25) and Clippers (by 5) at home, and the Timberwolves (by 8) on the road.  They did lose to the Nuggets (by 8) at home for their only loss during this stretch.

New Orleans is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Atlanta.  What's most impressive about that is three of the four games were played on the road.  Yes, the Pelicans did lose 91-100 at Atlanta in their first meeting of 2014-15, but they only scored 28 points in the first half and did a good job of fighting their way back into the game.  Look for them to play a full four quarters in this one and to pull off the upset.

Plays on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, in February games are 44-14 (75.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  New Orleans is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 home games.  The Pelicans are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +9

They Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued tonight as 9-point road favorites over the Brooklyn Nets.  The Clippers are in their 4th game of a long eight-game road trip.  After a 5-point win over Utah and a 5-point loss to New Orleans to start the trip, the Clippers put together arguably their best performance of the season in a 20-point win at San Antonio.

They are getting too much respect because of that 20-point win.  That win over the defending champs sets the Clippers up for a letdown spot here.  This is also a lookahead spot because their next game is at Cleveland.  That makes this an extremely vulnerable spot for the Clippers, and we'll look to fade them because of it.

The Nets currently sit in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Charlotte Hornets for 8th place.  They clearly have plenty to play for as a result, and they have been playing some solid basketball here of late against the best in the East despite coming out on the losing end.

Brooklyn has lost four in a row coming in, but it did hang right with Atlanta and Toronto in its last two games.  It only lost 102-113 at Atlanta as 14-point underdogs, and 122-127 (OT) at home against Toronto as 7.5-point dogs.  The Nets are also well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.  Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Clippers and Nets.  Brooklyn has won six straight and 14 of its last 15 home meetings with Los Angeles.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Nets if there was no spread in this game, but add in the 9-point line and you can see that they are showing excellent value given the head-to-head history.

Plays on home underdogs of 9 or more points (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 36-8 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nets are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Nets Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 47.5

With a full two weeks to prepare for one another, the advantage has to go to the defenses in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.  Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll are arguably the two best head coaches in the NFL today, and you can bet that they will leave no stone unturned.

These are also two of the best scoring defenses in the NFL.  The Patriots only give up 19.5 points per game this season, while the Seahawks are tops in the league in allowing just 16.3 points per game.  Both defenses get better as the game goes on, too.  The Seahawks and Patriots have allowed three second-half touchdowns in their past 16 games combined.

Seattle also ranks No. 1 in the league in total defense, giving up just 274.4 yards per game this season.  It has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games overall, and 7 or fewer points in five of those.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.

The Seahawks know that they aren't going to win a shootout with the Patriots, so look for them to give Marshawn Lynch a heavy dose of carries in this game to try and move the chains and keep New England's offense off the field.  The Seahawks rank 1st in the league in rushing and will ride both Lynch and Wilson's legs offensively, which will eat up clock and aid the UNDER as well.

New England knows that if it wants any chance of beating Seattle, it is going to have to run the football.  That's because the Seahawks rank 1st in the league against the pass, giving up just 187 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Seahawks because the Patriots rely heavily on the pass to move the ball.  They did show some versatility in running it 40 times for 177 yards against the Colts in the AFC Championship.

This will be the 6th Super Bowl that the Patriots will have played in during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.  Four of the five previously have been low-scoring despite New England coming in with one of the best offenses in the league in each.  They lost to the Giants 21-17 in the 2012 Super Bowl, lost to the Giants 17-14 in 2008, beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005, beat the Panthers 32-29 in 2004, and beat the Rams 20-17 in 2002. 

As you can see, four of their last five Super Bowls have seen 45 or fewer combined points, and three of those with 38 or fewer.  In 2007, New England scored 36.8 points per game during the regular season, then 14 points in the Super Bowl. In 2011, New England scored 32.1 points per game during the regular season, then 17 points in the Super Bowl.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Patriots last five Super Bowls.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bill Belichick is 25-11 to the UNDER In road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in all games he has coached since 1992.  Belichick is 22-8 to the UNDER versus good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots & Seahawks.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

15* Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle PK

Seattle (14-4) got off to a shaky 3-3 start this season. It kicked it into high gear thereafter, going 11-1 in its final 12 games to reach the Super Bowl. It has been really impressive down the stretch, going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with seven of those victories coming by double-digits.

The Seahawks have been an absolute cash cow at the pay window because of how they have been blowing out the opposition. They have won their last eight games by an average of 14.4 points per game. They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 17 points or fewer, including five of those to a touchdown or less. Four of the eight opponents didn’t even score a touchdown against Seattle.

As you may know, the Seahawks have the league’s top-ranked defense in scoring (16.3 points/game) and total (274.4 yards/game) defense. However, they also put up solid numbers on offense at 25.2 points and 375.4 yards per game. So, they are outgaining their opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.

Looking at statistics alone, there’s no question that the Seahawks are the superior team. The Patriots are only outgaining their opponents by an average of 29.0 yards per game. They are averaging 370.3 yards per game offensively and giving up 341.3 yards per game defensively. While both numbers are solid, they are nothing compared to what the Seahawks have done this year statistically, especially here of late.

New England has to be feeling a little guilty about its use of 11 deflated footballs in the AFC Championship Game. These Patriots players may already know that if they win the Super Bowl, it will be tainted to a degree. That’s a sick feeling coming into the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Seahawks must feel like they cannot lose after what they did to come back and beat Green Bay in the NFC Championship. From a mental perspective, the Seahawks have an edge there as well.

Speaking of that win over Green Bay, it was by far the worst game the Seahawks have played in quite some time, and they still found a way to win.  They committed five turnovers and tried to give the game away to the Packers, and they couldn't even take it.  There's no chance that the Seahawks are that sloppy with the football again in the Super Bowl. 

Look for Russell Wilson to learn from his mistakes, and for the Seahawks to not be so pass-happy in this game when they know they have a huge edge in running the football.  They rank 1st in the league in rushing (170 YPG, 5.2 YPC), and you'll see a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch and Wilson on the ground in this one.  Also, it's worth mentioning that Wilson is a perfect 10-0 in his career against opposing quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl.  He is a real gamer and doesn't get enough credit.

Seattle is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games overall. New England is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 playoff games. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. New England is 0-4 ATS in its last four Super Bowl appearances.  Take the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX Sunday.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +10

The East Carolina Pirates are just 8-12 this season, while the Cincinnati Bearcats are 15-5.  However, I believe because of these records, the Pirates are showing excellent value as 10-point home underdogs to the Bearcats Sunday afternoon.

East Carolina has lost six of its last seven games overall coming in.  It has played a brutal schedule with road losses to South Florida, Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis.  Following a 21-point loss at Cincinnati in early January, you can bet the Pirates will be out for revenge at home this time around.

Without question, East Carolina has been a much better home team than a road team this year.  It is a very solid 7-3 at home while going a superb 4-1 ATS in home lined games.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.6 points per game at home as well.  All three of its home losses have come by 8 points or less, including a 64-66 loss to a very good Tulsa team as 9.5-point underdogs a week ago.

Cincinnati comes into this game overvalued due to having won four straight and eight of its last 10 games overall.  Well, this team has been vulnerable on the road this season, going just 2-3 in true road games.  Off a big home win over Connecticut on Thursday, and with an even bigger game with SMU on deck, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bearcats.  That's especially the case considering they have already beaten the Pirates handily once this season.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a poor shooting team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 32-56 ATS in its last 88 games after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games coming in.  The Bearcats are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games.  Cincinnati is 8-32 ATS in its last 40 Sunday games.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  ECU is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with East Carolina Sunday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +9.5

Due to their torrid start to the season that has them sitting in first place in the Western Conference with a 36-8 record, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now.  I have faded them with success here recently, and will continue to do so tonight.

The Warriors are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat the Celtics 114-111 as 18-point home favorites, lost to the Bulls 111-113 as 11-point home favorites, and then lost to the Jazz 100-110 last night as 10-point road favorites.

The Phoenix Suns continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league.  They have won 16 of their last 22 games overall  to get to 28-20 on the season and in 8th place in the Western Conference.  The Suns also played last night in a 99-93 win over the Bulls.  However, I don't mind backing this team on the second of a back-to-back because they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.

The Suns have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Golden State.  Two of their three losses have come by 6 points or fewer, including a 113-107 loss as 10-point underdogs in their last trip to Golden State.  The Suns won their only meeting with the Warriors this season 107-95 at home.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Suns are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 27-13 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Suns Saturday.

15* Memphis/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +18

With a No. 3 national ranking and a 21-1 record, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are certainly one of the biggest public teams in the country.  They have a reputation from year's past as well that just has the betting public backing them every chance they get.  That means they have expectations to live up to, and sometimes those expectations are out of reach in terms of the point spread.

That has shown up here in recent games for the Bulldogs as they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Santa Clara by 22 as 24.5-point favorites, Pepperdine by 2 as 12-point favorites, Loyola-Marymount by 17 as 19.5-point favorites, and Portland by 18 as 21-point favorites in their four most recent non-covers.

Memphis (13-7) has the athleticism to match Gonzaga in this one.  The Tigers come in playing their best basketball of the season having won five of their last six.  They have also won 10 of their last 13 games overall.  Four of their last five victories have come by double-digits with impressive wins over Cincinnati (by 13), UCF (by 20), Houston (by 18) and East Carolina (by 12).

Memphis is 6-1 straight up in its last seven meetings with Gonzaga dating back to 2005.  These teams met up last year with Memphis winning 60-54 as 4.5-point home favorites.  Now, they are 18-point road underdogs a year later?  There's clearly some value here folks based on that fact alone.  Also, keep in mind that Gonzaga is playing on one days' rest after beating Portland on Thursday, while Memphis comes in on two days' rest after playing on Wednesday.

Memphis is 7-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 28-9 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting after 15-plus games since 1997.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points.  Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS after three straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS loss.  Take Memphis Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -5

The San Antonio Spurs are finally healthy and playing like the defending champions that they are as a result.  The Spurs have won seven of their last eight games overall with all seven of those victories coming by 5 points or more, including five by 9 or more.

The defending champs certainly come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Wednesday.  This will also be just their 2nd game in the past 6 days.

The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who are a very tired team right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They lost a 103-108 heartbreaker to the Pelicans last night despite being 8-point favorites as they started to show signs of wearing down.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three.  They only beat the Nuggets by 4 as 14-point favorites and the Jazz by 5 as 6.5-point favorites.

San Antonio simply has Los Angeles' number.  The Spurs have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Clippers.  Three of those victories came by double-digits as well.  They beat the Clippers 125-118 as 1-point home favorites in their last meeting despite playing without Khawi Leonard, who is back healthy now.

The Clippers are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 visits to San Antonio.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +17

The Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are currently riding an 18-game winning streak that saw them cover an NBA-record 15 straight games to start the streak.

Finally, the odds have caught up to them.  The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games during the streak.  They only won by 12 as 17.5-point favorites over Minnesota, by 11 as 14-point favorites over Brooklyn, and by 6 as 6.5-point favorites over Portland.

Now, the Hawks will find it extremely difficult to get motivated to play the lowly Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  That's especially the case considering they recently beat the 76ers by 18 during this winning streak.  I look for them to come out flat off that big win over Portland last night, and to not bring the kind of effort it will take to put away Philadelphia by 17-plus points.

The 76ers come into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have won each of their last two games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Pistons 89-69 as 8-point home underdogs on January 28th, and then came back with a 103-94 upset win over the Timberwolves as 4-point dogs last night.

Philadelphia hasn't lost by more than 16 points in Atlanta in any of the last eight meetings.  It has won three games outright as underdogs in those eight meetings.  The five losses came by 16, 8, 10, 11 and 5 points.  I look for the 76ers to hang tough again Saturday.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, on Saturday games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 24-42 ATS in its last 66 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse.  The 76ers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards -3

This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors and a great one for the Washington Wizards.  I'll lay the small number on the home favorite Wizards because of it tonight.

Toronto comes in overvalued as it is due to having won five straight, but all five of those wins came against Philadelphia, Deetroit, Indiana, Sacramento and Brooklyn, all of which currently have losing records.  Three of those victories came by 5 points or less.

The reason this is a tough spot for the Raptors is because they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  Making matters worse is the fact that they played an overtime game last night against the Nets.  Kyle Lowry played 44 minutes and DeMar DeRozan played 41.  The Raptors could be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas, who suffered an ankle injury against Brooklyn and is questionable.

Washington comes in undervalued after failing to cover the spread in each of its last five games overall.  Well, four of those games were on the road, and all five were against Western Conference teams.  It was also a 4 games in 5 days stretch.  Now, the Wizards come in refreshed and ready to go after having two days' rest since last playing on Wednesday.  They will clearly bring more energy to the court tonight.

Washington is 18-6 at home this season.  Toronto is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 games following four or more consecutive wins.  The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Toronto is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Wizards Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +19

As the No. 1 team in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats are forced to lay big numbers often.  The betting public is all over this unbeaten team, and the Wildcats have now created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to.

They have gone just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a 3-point win over Ole Miss as 23-point favorites, a 6-point win over Texas A&M as 14.5-point favorites, an 8-point win over Vanderbilt as 21.5-point favorites, and a 16-point win over Missouri as 17.5-point favorites.

Alabama (13-7), on the other hand, comes into this game undervalued due to having lost four of its last five games overall.  Well, four of those five games were remarkably decided by exactly 2 points, and the Crimson Tide came out on the short end of the stick in three of those.

I have no doubt that Alabama is one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and one that is fully capable of hanging with Kentucky today.  The Crimson Tide have seen six of their seven losses come by 13 points or less, including four of those by 2 points or fewer.

The lone exception was a 48-70 home loss to Kentucky as 9.5-point underdogs.  While that loss was concerning, the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge here.  I don't expect the Wildcats to be all that motivated for this game after already beating Alabama by 22 in their first meeting.  The Wildcats won't bring the kind of effort and focus it takes to put away the Crimson Tide by 19-plus points in the rematch.

Alabama is 7-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a home loss.  Alabama is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games as an underdog of 12.5 or more points.  The Crimson Tide are 13-2 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  Also, Alabama comes into this game on three days' rest, while Kentucky comes in on just one day of rest after playing Missouri on Thursday.

That 22-point loss was the exception, not the rule in this series.  Alabama is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kentucky.  In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings in this series have been decided by 17 points or less.  In fact, 20 of those 23 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer.  This makes for a 22-1 system backing the Crimson Tide pertaining to this 19-point spread today.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +2.5

I look at Wichita State (19-2) and Northern Iowa (19-2) as pretty much equals.  I also believe the Panthers have a real shot of winning the Missouri Valley this year, but they cannot afford to lose to the Shockers at home if they want to do so.  Wichita State has a great reputation due to its Final Four run, but that's the only reason it is favored here when it shouldn't be.

Northern Iowa is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game.  Its only two losses this season came on the road to VCU (87-93, OT) and Evansville (49-52).  This is an experienced team that returned all five starters from last year, and one that will want revenge after losing both meetings with the Shockers last season.

Wichita State has been vulnerable this season.  It has losses to both Utah and George Washington, and it also has narrow victories over Hawaii (80-79) and Alabama (53-52).  Six of its wins have come by single-digits this season.  The Shockers just aren't as dominant as they were a year ago, and they will prove to be beatable against their top contenders today.

Plays against any team (WICHITA ST) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, playing their 3rd game in a week are 71-38 (65.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Shockers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -3

The South Carolina Gamecocks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall while going 0-7 ATS in the process.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are showing such great value as only 3-point home favorites over Georgia.

A closer look at this rough patch shows that the Gamecocks have suffered several narrow defeats.  Indeed, four of their six losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, while the other two came to Kentucky at home and Ole Miss on the road.  They have simply been on the short end of the stick in close games, but I look for that to change today.

Georgia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of its wins have come at home during this stretch, while the other two were narrow road victories over SEC bottom feeders Vanderbilt (70-67) and Mississippi State (72-66).

The Bulldogs are going to be short-handed today as they are expected to be without their leading scorer (13.5 ppg) and rebounder (7.3 rpg), Marcus Thornton.  This guy is a beast inside and shoots 50.5% from the field.  Thornton has played every game up to this point, but now he'll miss his first game of the season due to a concussion.  That's a huge loss for the Bulldogs, and one that I don't believe they'll be able to overcome.

Plays on a favorite (S CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 76-37 (67.3%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show there is value in backing teams on poor ATS streaks against teams on great ATS streaks.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5

The No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (17-3) are going to be out for revenge against the No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels (17-4) today.  They lost a heartbreaker to the Tar Heels 71-72 on the road in their first meeting of 2014-15 on January 15th.  Look for them to have their revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.

Louisville is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to two of the best teams in the country in Kentucky and Duke.

Outside of a road loss to Kentucky by 14 points, the Tar Heels have played an extremely soft road schedule this season.  Their other four true road games came against UNC-Greensboro, Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest.  This will easily be their second-toughest road game of the season, and I look for them to struggle like they did against the Wildcats.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (winning at least 80%) are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997.  North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Rick Pitino is 37-19 ATS revenging a road loss as the coach of Louisville.  The Tar Heels are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. ACC foes.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last two seasons.  North Carolina is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last two years.  UNC is 1-8 ATS after a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Cardinals.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns look to cap off a record eight-game home stand with one final victory Friday night.  They have gone 5-2 through the first seven games of this home stand, and they have won 15 of their last 21 games overall.  This team continues to go under the radar as one of the better teams in the NBA that gets no respect.

I like their chances of getting a victory tonight by 6-plus points against a tired Chicago Bulls team that will just have nothing left in the tank.  The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for Chicago is that it has played back-to-back overtime games, including a double-OT loss to the lowly Lakers 118-123 last night.  Jimmy Butler played 49 minutes, Derrick Rose played 42, Joakim Noah played 42, and Paul Gasol played 44.  Now, Butler is questionable to play tonight due to a knee injury suffered against the Lakers.

Phoenix is a bad team for Chicago to have to play tonight when fatigued.  That's because the Suns play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, they rank 2nd in the league in pace at 99.2 possessions per game.  They also rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions.  They average 107.3 points per game this year.

The Suns are averaging 112.8 points on 49.2 percent shooting while winning eight of their last 10 at home.  With the Super Bowl being played in nearby Glendale, the Suns should have a great crowd for this game tonight and a huge home-court advantage.

The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall.  The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the Suns Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now due to their franchise-record 17-game winning streak coming into this game.  The Blazers could not be more undervalued right now due to losing six of their last eight games overall.  This is the perfect storm that has created a ton of line value for us to back the Blazers as 7-point road dogs.

Portland (32-14) is still one of the best teams in the NBA despite this recent poor stretch.  It's not like the Blazers are getting blown out, either.  Five of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less.  They have simply been on the wrong end of all their close games here of late, and they have played some stiff competition as well as five of the losses have come to the Clippers, Spurs, Grizzlies, Suns and Cavs.

After covering an NBA-record 15 straight games, the evidence of the Hawks being overvalued has shown in their last two.  They only beat the Timberwolves by 12 as 17.5-point favorites and the Nets by 11 as 14-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in each.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Blazers.

I look at this as a letdown spot for Atlanta.  Yesterday, it had three players voted into the All-Star Game in Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  While all three are deserving on a 38-8 squad that is in first place in the East, I can see it working against them tonight.  Getting three All-Stars gives the Hawks a sense of validity, or that their job has been done.  I look for them to take their foot off the gas tonight, while getting a monster effort from the motivated Blazers.

Atlanta is 1-13 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last three seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by an average of 4.6 points per game in this spot.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Denver +10.5

There's no question that the Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here physically.  This will be their 4th game in 5 days after beating the New Orleans Pelicans last night on the road.  However, I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted for this tough spot for the Nuggets, and there's clearly value in backing them as double-digit underdogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Denver has been extremely competitive over the past month despite having lost seven straight prior to its win over the Pelicans last night.  In fact, the Nuggets have only lost once by more than 10 points in their last 15 games overall.  That was a road loss to the Golden State Warriors, who are the best team in the NBA up to this point.  That's also a 14-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.

Memphis is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to having won four straight and eight of its last nine games overall.  It is coming off a shocking 109-90 upset win at Dallas last time out, which is only adding to the inflation of this line.  This could be a potential letdown spot for the Grizzlies off that big win and with Oklahoma City on deck.

Denver has played Memphis extremely tough in recent years.  It beat Memphis 114-85 at home in its first and only meeting of 2014-15 on January 3rd.  The Nuggets have won five of their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies outright while going 6-3 ATS.  In fact, in the last 26 meetings, the Nuggets have lost to the Grizzlies by more than 10 points only once.  That's a 25-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.

Plays against home teams (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Memphis is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Grizzlies could be without two starters in PG Mike Conley and SG Tony Allen tonight, who are both listed as questionable after sitting out last game.  Take the Nuggets Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Dakota State -6

The North Dakota State Bison have made some noise in the NCAA Tournament in recent years.  This is one of those under-the-radar teams that regularly finds itself in the Big Dance because it takes care of business in conference play and in the conference tournament.

The Bison have taken a bit of a step back this year, but they are still 13-7 and played a pretty difficult non-conference schedule, opening with Texas and Iowa on the road.  That has prepared them well for conference play, where they have gone 5-2 with impressive wins over top contenders Oral Roberts and South Dakota State.

What really stood out to me looking into this game was the home/road records of both teams.  North Dakota State is a perfect 9-0 straight up and 5-0 ATS in home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Denver is 1-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in road games, getting outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game.

The Pioneers have had one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball through the years, but they have been atrocious on the road, and that has continued this season.  Now, they may be without second-leading scorer Cam Griffin (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who has missed the past two games due to suspension.  Even if Griffin plays I look for NDSU to cover, but it would be an added bonus if he doesn't.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent years.  The home team has gone a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings.  North Dakota State has won each of its last four home meetings with Denver by 10 or more points.  I can't stress enough how big home-court advantage for both of these teams.

Denver is 0-6 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  Joe Scott is 26-45 ATS as a road underdog or pick 'em as the coach of Denver.  Scott is 1-13 ATS after a game where they were called for 27 or more fouls as the coach of Denver.  The Pioneers are 12-39-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with North Dakota State Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are certainly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 23-22 overall and a ridiculous 30-14-1 ATS in 45 games.  While there was value in backing them during the first half of the year, that value has all been zapped up now.  Milwaukee has no business being the favorite on the road to the Orlando Magic tonight.

While the Bucks come into this game getting a ton of love from the betting public, the Magic are getting none.  That's because they have lost six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall coming in.  They have at least been competitive during this stretch as five of their last six losses have come by 10 points or less.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Milwaukee and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  In fact, Orlando is 17-0 straight up in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee dating back to 2005.  If that's not great evidence as to why you should back the Magic, then I don't know what is.

Orlando is 10-1 ATS in home games after having lost 12 or more of its last 15 games over the past two seasons.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Orlando.  The Magic beat the Bucks 101-85 at home in their lone meeting of 2014-15.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

In a game between in-state rivals Mississippi State and Ole Miss tonight, I'll gladly side with the underdog in this contest.  The Bulldogs are showing solid value as 13.5-point road dogs to the Rebels, especially with the way they have been playing of late.

While Mississippi State is just 9-10 this season, it is playing much better than its record would indicate.  The Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Texas A&M 70-74 as 10-point road dogs, beat Vanderbilt 57-54 as 4-point home dogs, beat Auburn 78-71 as 7-point road dogs, and lost to Georgia 66-72 as 5-point home dogs in their last four games, respectively.

Ole Miss is in a massive letdown spot here.  The Rebels are coming off a 72-71 home win over Florida last time out for a rare win over the Gators.  They have actually exchanged wins and losses in each of their last nine games overall.  They are 0-4 straight up in their last four games following a win.

Mississippi State is an experienced team that brought five starters back from last season.  It lost its final two meetings of the season to Ole Miss, including in the SEC Tournament.  These players will be out for revenge from those two losses as they have not forgotten.

Ole Miss is 3-11 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Mississippi State is 51-31 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games since 1997.  While the Bulldogs are just 2-6 away from home this season, they're actually only getting outscored by an average of 2.9 points per game on the road.  Bet Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  At 8-37 on the season, they are tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in the Eastern Conference.  There's no question in my mind that the Knicks are much better than their record would indicate.

New York simply lost a ton of close games in the first half of the season, and had some key injuries to boot.  Well, this team is starting to get healthy, and the results have been much better here of late.  Carmelo Anthony is back in the fold now, and they are getting some key contributions from players they recently signed like Langston Galloway (12.1 ppg in 8 games) and Lance Thomas (9.8 ppg in five games).

The Knicks are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home dogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs.  Their only loss came at Charlotte 71-76 as 9-point road dogs in a game where Carmelo Anthony sat out since it was the second of a back-to-back.

Anthony returns to the lineup tonight and makes all the difference for this team when he's in there.  Plus, the Knicks come in well-rested and ready to go as they have had a whopping three days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Saturday.  There's no question they will the be the fresher, more prepared team.

Oklahoma City is a tired squad right now, and it's starting to show in its play.  The Thunder will be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Atlanta 93-103, at Cleveland 98-108, and only beat lowly Minnesota 92-84 as 13-point home favorites during this stretch.

Kevin Durant did sit out against the Timberwolves due to a sore toe as he was a late scratch in that game.  Well, Durant isn't expected to play tonight either, and there's no way the Thunder should be this heavily favored on the road without him.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Thunder are just 10-15 SU & 8-16-1 ATS on the road this season.  OKC is 4-13 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Thunder are 4-12 ATS versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this year.  The Thunder are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to New York.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7

The Toronto Raptors certainly overachieved in the first third of the season.  They opened 24-7 and were in first place in the Eastern Conference.  As expected, they weren't able to keep up the torrid pace they were on, and they have been overvalued ever since.

Indeed, the Raptors are just 6-8 straight up and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia (twice), Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit and Indiana.  Only Milwaukee (23-22) has a winning record, while the other four teams are all at least 11 games below .500.

Yes, the Sacramento Kings do not have a very good record at all at 16-27, but they also play in the stacked Western Conference.  They would be a playoff contender if they played in the East.  They have gone 4-2 SU in their last six meetings with the Raptors, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

The main reason I'm on the Kings tonight is the rest factor.  The Kings come into this game on four days' rest, so they will be ready to go following a long layoff.  They will also be motivated for a win after dropping six straight coming in with five of those coming against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  Four of those losses came by single-digits, and three by 4 points or less.

Toronto is in a terrible situation compared to Sacramento in the rest department.  The Raptors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, which is a very difficult spot in the NBA.  I just don't believe they are going to be able to match the effort they get from the Kings tonight because of it.

Plays on road teams (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 85-45 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference foes.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +17

The Texas Tech Red Raiders could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They opened 0-6 in Big 12 play and were rarely competitive.  However, they finally showed what they were capable of last time out against one of the best teams in the country.

Indeed, the Red Raiders beat Iowa State 78-73 as 10-point home underdogs on Saturday.  They controlled that game from start to finish as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Despite that win, they are still getting no love from the betting public or the oddsmakers as they are 17-point road underdogs tonight at Oklahoma.

The Sooners have really been struggling in Big 12 play.  They are just 3-4 within the conference, losing four of their last five games overall.  That includes blowout losses to West Virginia (65-86) and Baylor (58-69).  While they will be motivated to bounce back, the fact of the matter is that they are simply laying too many points tonight.

The road team has actually won three straight meetings in this series, including a 68-60 upset win by Texas Tech as 8.5-point underdogs last season.  In fact, Texas Tech has not lost by more than 15 points to Oklahoma in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series, making for a 10-1 system backing the Red Raiders.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Cavaliers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers (32-13) got some tremendous news when LaMarcus Aldridge announced he wasn't going to have surgery on his hand.  In his first game back from injury, he posted 26 points and nine rebounds in a win over the Wizards on Saturday.  At 32-13, he knows how important it is for the Blazers to to try and get a top-four seed in the West.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are rolling right now, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  However, with this winning streak comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Cavaliers cannot live up to.  I still don't believe they are as good as the top teams in the West, like Portland.

This is a terrible spot for Cleveland and a great one for Portland.  The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off a 103-95 win at Detroit last night.  Kyrie Irving played 42 minutes, Lebron James played 36 minutes, and Kevin Love played 32 minutes.  Irving will have to chase around Damian Lillard for four quarters, too, which is a tough task to ask.

It's going to be very hard for the Cavaliers to come back with a great effort tonight given the situation.  They certainly won't be able to match the energy level of the Blazers, who come in on three days' rest after last playing on Saturday.  Plus, the Blazers will be highly motivated after having lost five of their last seven games overall.  Four of those five losses came by 6 points or less.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 7-1 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Cavs, including a 101-82 home win over Cleveland in their first meeting of 2014-15.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Fordham +9

The Fordham Rams host on the Rhode Island Rams tonight in Atlantic 10 action.  The home squad is showing excellent value in this contest as 9-point home underdogs to Rhode Island, and we'll take advantage.

Fordham has played a gauntlet of a schedule of late, which is why it has lost six straight coming in.  It has been at least a 9-point underdog in its six straight losses to VCU, Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Josephs, LaSalle and George Washington.

The best game Fordham played during that stretch actually came in a 65-68 road loss at Rhode Island as 15-point underdogs.  After playing Rhode Island tough on the road, I look for Fordham to also play them tough at home this time around as they will be out for revenge.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Rhode Island and Fordham.  Indeed, the home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings dating back to 2012.  Fordham has won each of its last three home meetings with Rhode Island, pulling off two upsets as underdogs in the process.

Fordham will have a decisive edge in rest and preparation as well.  It has has five days off in between games, while Rhode Island has only had two days off in between games.  After playing such a gauntlet of a schedule, this extra rest came at the perfect time for Fordham.  Look for it to play one of its best games of the season tonight.

Rhode Island has a key injury in play here.  Star guard E.C. Matthews, who leads the team in scoring (17.0 ppg), missed their last game against St. Bonaventure on Sunday with a knee injury.  Matthews is questionable to return tonight.  I like Fordham either way, and it would just be an added bonus if Matthews is unable to go.

Rhode Island is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  Rhode Island is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Fordham is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Fordham Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3

The Marquette Golden Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Despite being just 10-9 on the season, they continually don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That is evident by their 12-7 ATS record this season, and they are undervalued again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over Seton Hall.

The Seton Hall Pirates got off to a great start this season, but then they jumped into the Top 25, and reality has sank in ever since. The Pirates are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at Xavier 58-69, at home against Butler 75-79, at home against DePaul 60-64, and at Butler 57-77.  Their lone win came against Creighton (68-67), but Creighton is in last place in the Big East and still doesn't have a conference win.

Marquette has lost three in a row as well, but it has at least been competitive.  It only lost 58-62 at Xavier as 9.5-point dogs, 57-60 at St. John's as 6.5-point dogs, and 85-95 (OT) at home against Georgetown as 1.5-point dogs.  This team has just been on the wrong end of several close losses this season as each of their last five losses have either come by 6 points or less or in overtime.

Marquette is 8-3 at home this season.  It only home losses came against Georgetown (in OT), Wisconsin and Nebraska-Omaha.  Obviously, that early-season loss to Nebraska-Omaha was not pretty, but this has been a completely different team ever since.  I just really like the fight I've seen from this squad, and they are sure to bring it tonight against Seton Hall.

The Eagles are 5-0 straight up in their last five meetings with the Pirates with four of those victories coming by 7 points or more.  Marquette is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  The Eagles are 8-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this year.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  These four trends combine for a 28-2 system backing the Eagles.  Take Marquette Wednesday.