15* Astros/Dodgers Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -151

The Los Angeles Dodgers showed great resolve in Game 6 and beat the Houston Astros 3-1 to force a Game 7.  Now I fully expect them to close this thing out.  It feels like it's their time, while the Astros will have plenty more chances in the future with such a young nucleus.

Yu Darvish had been unhittable prior to a bad start against the Astros in Game 3.  He had given up just 3 earned runs over 31 innings over his previous five starts for a 0.87 ERA.  He had struck out 35 while walking just 2 and allowing only 17 hits in that five-start stretch.  Look for him to get back to being that dominant starter for Game 7 tonight.

Lance McCullers hasn't exactly been dominant down the stretch.  He is now 1-3 with a 7.08 ERA in his last 10 starts, giving up a whopping 38 earned runs in 48 1/3 innings.  I simply don't trust the youngster in this big of a spot tonight.  He gave up 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in Game 3.

McCullers is 11-19 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 32-7 in home games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons.  Take the Dodgers in Game 7 Wednesday.

15* CMU/WMU MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +6.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have their best chance to beat their biggest rivals in the Western Michigan Broncos this year.  They have lost three straight to the Broncos in this series, but those were much better WMU teams under PJ Fleck.  This 2017 version has been much more vulnerable.

Indeed, Western Michigan is just 5-3 this season.  Three of its five wins have come by single-digits with the lone exceptions being blowout wins against FCS foe Wagner and arguably the worst team in college football in Ball State.  The Broncos needed overtime to beat both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan, and only beat Idaho by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They also lost to Akron 14-13 at home as 12.5-point favorites.

Now the Broncos lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a season-ending broken collarbone against Eastern Michigan last week.  That's a huge loss as he has been one of the best QB's in the MAC, completing 64.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for three scores.  Now the Broncos will be turning to true freshman Reece Goddard this week.

Central Michigan is playing well of late.  It upset Ohio 26-23 on the road as 10-point dogs, lost to Toledo 10-30 at home, and crushed Ball State 56-9 on the road as 3-point favorites in its last three games.  The loss to Toledo isn't so bad because the Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC, and Ohio may be the second-best team, so that win looks really good right now.

Miami transfer Shane Morris has come in and played well for head coach John Bonamego.  He has thrown for 1,966 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season.  Stud receiver Corey Willis is back and healthy now after missing four games earlier this season.  He has caught 23 balls for 293 yards and four scores in those four games.

The strength of schedule for both teams has been very comparable.  And the numbers suggest that they are pretty evenly-matched teams up to this point.  The Chippewas average 5.2 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.2 per play on defense.  The Broncos average 5.7 per play on offense, but give up 5.6 per play defensively.  So while the Broncos have had the edge on offense up to this point, that won't be the case in this game since they are starting a true freshman quarterback for the first time.

Western Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games.  The Broncos are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more yards per game.  The Chippewas are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tough spot here Wednesday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 91-110 at home to the Thunder last night.  Now they have to travel to Charlotte and face an upstart Hornets team that has been playing better since getting healthy.

The Hornets were missing several key pieces early in the season, but they are healthy outside of Nic Batum now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games, beating the Nuggets by 17 and the Magic by 7 at home, while also upsetting the Grizzlies by 5 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.

And you can bet the Hornets will be ready for this game.  They have had a day off to get ready for a rematch with the Bucks after losing to them 94-103 in Milwaukee on October 23rd just a week ago.  They let that game get away from them in the closing minutes as they actually led most the way.  Look for them to avenge that loss tonight.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Pistons/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Detroit Pistons have been grossly undervalued up to this point.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their first seven games to start the season.  I may be looking to back this team in the near future, but right now is not the time.

The Pistons are now overvalued here laying 4.5 points on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers.  They are getting a lot of love now thanks to back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  Off those two monster wins, this is now a massive letdown spot for the Pistons after beating the defending champs.

The Lakers have lost back-to-back games to the Raptors and Jazz and are not getting much love in the markets because of it.  But they have had two days off coming into this game, while the Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, giving the Lakers the advantage in rest and preparation as well.

Plays against favorites (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or fewer of their attempts over the last two seasons.  They are losing these games by a whopping 17.3 points per game on average.  Detroit is 3-13 ATS off two more more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -112

This World Series has been so compelling thus far that it just feels like a Game 7 is going to happen.  And we're getting the Dodgers at a tremendous value in Game 6 as small home favorites.  I expect the Dodgers to get the job done tonight.

Rich Hill has gone 12-8 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 17 home starts.  Hill has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, so he has clearly been on his game down the stretch and into the postseason.

Justin Verlander was complaining about the baseballs for the World Series.  He says their slick, and that's probably why he only had one swing and miss on his slider against the Dodgers in Game 2, the first time that has happened all season.  The fact that he's worried about the baseballs is a concern for Astros' backers as it's clearly in his head.  

Verlander gave up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings in Game 2 against the Dodgers.  He has posted a 4.18 ERA in 19 road starts this season as he's much worse away from home.  Verlander has posted a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles, while Hill has posted a 2.85 ERA in seven career starts against Houston.

The Dodgers are 52-19 in their last 71 home games.  The Astros are 1-4 in their last five playoff road games. Los Angeles is 5-1 in Hill's last six starts.  Houston is 2-7 in its last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the Dodgers in Game 6 Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Miami (OH)/Ohio UNDER 54

Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio is one of the more underrated rivalries in the MAC.  These teams absolutely hate each other, and that makes these games played closer to the vest.  And if you look at the series history, it has almost always been a defensive battle.  I expect more of the same Tuesday night.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Bobcats and Redhawks have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings with the lone exception behind a 57-point effort in 2013.  They have averaged a combined 40.4 points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 54.  Ohio beat Miami 17-7 last year and these teams combined for just 435 total yards.

I think the fact that Ohio is scoring 40.7 points per game this season is what has inflated this total.  But the Bobcats have played one of the worst schedules of opposing defenses in all of college football.  Now they'll be up against a much more respectable Miami defense that is giving up 24.5 points and 356 yards per game, including 20.5 points per game in conference play.

Miami's offense has failed to get going this year, averaging just 23.6 points per game.  Now they'll be up against a Bobcats defense that is giving up only 25.4 points per game, including 19.7 points per game, 313.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in conference play.

The UNDER is 37-16 in Redhawks last 53 October games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven games following a bye.  Both teams have extra prep time after last playing on November 21st, which favors the defenses.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Redhawks last five conference games.  The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Bobcats last 29 conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +8

The Utah Jazz are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  They opened the season by going 3-0 ATS in their first three games with home wins over Denver and Oklahoma City, and a road win at Minnesota.  That quick start has them overvalued.

The Jazz have come back down to reality since.  They have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 16 on the road to the Clippers, and by 9 on the road to the Suns.  They did beat the Lakers by 15 at home, but the Lakers were playing the second of a back-to-back.

Conversely, the Mavs are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start.  They weren't very competitive in their first four games, but their last three have been a different story.  They beat Memphis 103-94 at home, only lost 91-96 in Memphis as 5-point dogs, and only lost 110-112 at home to the 76ers.  Now they are catching 8 points against the Jazz in a game that is likely to go down to the wire.

Three of the last six meetings between Utah and Dallas have gone to overtime, which just shows you how close this series has been.  And the Mavs have only lost once by more than 5 points to the Jazz in their last seven meetings.

Dallas is 32-16 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  Utah is 0-9 ATS in home games after covering four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City -7

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a great spot here.  They are coming off two straight losses and will be fired up to get back in the win column at home.  And they are coming off a Thursday game against the Raiders, giving them extra rest time and preparation to get ready for the Denver Broncos.  That mini-bye week has been pure gold in the NFL.  Teams coming off a Thursday game have gone 9-3 ATS this season.

While the Chiefs had a chance to beat both the Steelers and Raiders in their last two games, the Broncos haven't even come close to winning their last two.  They lost 10-23 at home to the Giants despite being 13.5-point favorites, and then proceeded to get shut out 21-0 on the road against the Chargers despite being favored in that game as well.

The Broncos have been hit hard by injuries, which is a big reason for their struggles.  Losing Emmanuel Sanders is a bigger loss than what is getting factored into these spreads.  He is the second-favorite target of Trevor Siemian and now this is a vanilla offense without him as opposing teams can just take away Demaryius Thomas, and the Broncos don't have anyone else that can beat them.

Denver is was also missing tackle Menelik Watson and his backup Donald Stephenson last week, which explains all the struggles that Siemian was having.  Both are questionable to return this week.  And Siemian was dealing with a shoulder injury of his own and didn't look good at all against the Chargers.  He got rocked time after time, and I just can't see how he isn't beat up right now.  I think he is hiding injuries and playing through them.

The Broncos have benefited from a home-heavy schedule in the early going, playing four home games compared to two road games.  And boy were their two road games awful.  They lost 16-26 to the Bills and 21-0 to the Chargers, averaging just 8.0 points and giving up 23.5 points per game, losing both by double-digits.  And now this is a big step up in class against a Chiefs offense that is doing whatever it wants to.

The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 points per game (1st), 5.2 yards per carry (1st), 8.7 yards per pass attempt (1st) and 6.5 yards per play (1st).  As you can see, they rank 1st in the NFL in all four categories.  Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt are having MVP-caliber seasons.  And while the Chiefs' numbers defensively are down this year, it's due to playing the toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.  I would argue that this Denver offense is the weakest they have faced yet, and it's not really even close considering the current state of the Broncos' offense with all of the injuries.

The Chiefs have owned the Broncos in their last three meetings.  They won 29-13 in their final meeting of 2015 on the road, 30-27 on th road last year, and 33-10 at home last year.  They have outscored the Broncos a combined 92-50 in those three games despite playing two on the road, or by an average of 14 points per game.  They have proven by averaging 30.7 points per game that they have no trouble moving the ball and putting up points on this supposedly vaunted Denver defense.

Andy Reid has always been a great coach to back with extra prep time as he has the best record of any NFL head coach off a bye.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. AFC West opponents.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5

It's amazing that two teams from different conferences will be meeting for a second time this early in the season.  But that's the scenario we have here as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Houston Rockets for a rematch.

The Rockets won the first meeting 105-104 as 3-point road favorites over the 76ers.  Eric Gordon hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Rockets the win.  You can bet the 76ers are going to want their revenge tonight as they'll be the more motivated team, which is why I like getting 6.5 points with them in the rematch.

This 76ers team is coming off three straight covers and is playing very well right now.  They won 87-76 in Detroit and 112-110 in Dallas before and after that game against Houston.  The Rockets have been overvalued quite a bit, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including an 89-103 loss in Memphis last time out.  Injuries have been a big problem for them as Chris Paul remains out, while Gordon is questionable today.

Mike D'Antoni is 5-15 ATS off two straight road games as the coach of Houston.  D'Antoni is 2-12 ATS in home games versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game as the coach of Houston.  The 76ers are 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. Western Conference opponents. 

Philadelphia is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.   Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* Dodgers/Astros Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -139

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Clayton Kershaw at this kind of price.  It's a no-brainer to back him here in Game 5.  The Dodgers have the momentum after rallying from a one-run deficit late to win 6-2 yesterday.  And Kershaw will keep that momentum going.

Kershaw is 21-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  The Dodgers have gone 27-4 in those 31 starts.  He held the Astros to just one run on three hits without a walk while striking out 11 in a dominant effort in Game 1.  He has clearly erased the demons of postseason's past.

Dallas Keuchel has lost his last two postseason starts, giving up 4 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees, and 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 2/3 innings opposite Kershaw in Game 1 of this series. 

Kershaw is 18-1 (+16.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Dodges in Game 5 Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Orlando Magic are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-1 start to the season.  They are coming off a home win over the short-handed San Antonio Spurs and are now in a massive letdown spot off that big win.

The Charlotte Hornets have dealt with injuries of their own, but they are starting to get healthy outside of Nic Batum.  And this is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They should be laying more than 3 points at home to the Magic here.

The Hornets simply own the Magic.  They have won seven straight meetings while going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The last three meetings in Charlotte have resulted in double-digit blowout victories by 40, 21 and 14 points.  Expect more of the same in their first meeting of 2017.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +3

The Oakland Raiders are coming off a season-saving 31-30 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday.  They thought they won the game a couple times, but had plays called back due to either reviews or penalties. But they showed tremendous composure, and Derek Carr hit the game-winner on the final play to Michael Crabtree.  Now the Raiders have an extra pep in their step heading into this road trip to Buffalo.

And the Raiders are in a situation that I love to back here.  They are coming off a Thursday game, which gives them a mini-bye week and an edge over the Bills in rest and preparation.  Teams coming off Thursday games are a very profitable 9-3 (75%) ATS in 12 games this season.  I really believe the wrong team is favored here.

Carr showed that he is fully recovered from a back injury that forced him to miss all or parts of two games, which were two of the four losses the Raiders have suffered this season.  Carr lit up a good Chiefs defense for 417 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception.  Amari Cooper showed that he remains an elite receiver after a slow start to the season, catching 11 balls for 210 yards and two scores.

There's no question the Raiders have the better offense in this game.  The Bills have been winning with smoke and mirrors this season and are nowhere near as good as their 4-2 record would indicate.  Their offense has put up just 19.8 points, 299 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Tyrod Taylor is missing his favorite target in Charles Clay, and this is mostly a one-dimension running offense.

That actually makes this a good matchup for the Raiders defensively.  Their weakness has been against the pass, but they have held their own against the run.  They are giving up just 3.9 yards per carry against teams and average 4.3 yards per carry.  And they signed NaVorro Bowman away from the 49ers, and he's an elite run defender who made his first start with the team last week.  He brings an added element of toughness and leadership in the middle of their defense.

The Bills got off to a great start defensively this season, but there have been plenty of holes in their D the last two weeks.  They gave up 388 total yards to the Bengals and 447 to the Bucs.  Their weakness has been against the pass as they allowed 323 passing yards to Andy Dalton and the Bengals and 378 to Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  That's not good news for them considering Carr, Cooper and Crabtree are heating up.  Not to mention TE Jared Cook came alive with 107 receiving yards last week.

A big reason for this drop-off in production against the pass has been the injuries in the secondary for the Bills.  Buffalo could be without two starters for Sunday's game.  Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) are both considered day-to-day, but they did not practice on Wednesday.  Buffalo has allowed 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL.

The Raiders have owned the Bills, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Buffalo.  Oakland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games coming in.  Buffalo is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -4

This is definitely the type of 'buy low sell high' situation that I love in the NFL.  The Atlanta Falcons have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  Meanwhile, the New York Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, so they are starting to actually attract attention from the betting public.

We'll buy low on the Falcons knowing that this is the type of 'circle the wagons' game that they'll get up for.  They still have a great shot to win their division, and they are better than their 3-3 record would suggest.  Their offense isn't broken contrary to popular belief, and their defense is better than it gets credit for.

In fact, the Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.2), which is the most important stat when determining how good an offense is.  And the defense ranks 12th in the NFL giving up 5.1 yards per play, so the Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play.  That's the sign of an elite team, not a mediocre 3-3 one.

While the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game, the Jets are actually getting outgained by 46 yards per game.  The Jets have done a good job of covering some inflated numbers in the early going, but now that the numbers are back to where they should be, this team will be fade material starting this week.

Let's just compare some previous Jets' lines to see the type of line value we are getting here.  The Jets were 7-point road dogs to Buffalo, 14-point road dogs to the Raiders, 5.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, 4-point home dogs to the Jags, and 9-point home dogs to the Patriots.  

Now they are only 4-point home dogs to the Falcons, and I still believe the Falcons are a Top 5 team in the NFL, and potentially top 2.  It will be the second-toughest opponent the Jets have faced all season, just behind the Patriots, who they lost to by a touchdown at home.

The Jets are in a bad state of mind right now.  They came so close to beating the Patriots a couple weeks ago, falling just a touchdown short.  Then they blew a 28-14 fourth quarter lead against the Dolphins last week, losing 28-31.  They are feeling deflated right now and won't be able to get back up off the mat in time to face this hungry Falcons outfit.

Atlanta is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a road blowout loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Falcons are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 8.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The season is basically on the line for the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.  At 2-4, and following three straight losses, they cannot afford a loss this week at home to the Carolina Panthers.  I think we're getting the Bucs at a discount here.

After all, the Bucs have lost their last three games all by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games.  And they've been killed by injuries up to this point, but now they are as healthy as they've been since their 29-7 win over the Bears in Week 2.  Their defensive numbers haven't been pretty, but that's almost exclusively due to the injuries, not the lack of talent.

Linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are back healthy.  Cornerback Brent Grimes and safety TJ Ward have each missed time and are healthy now.  Doug Martin is back from his 3-game suspension.  And Jameis Winston showed that his shoulder injury is an afterthought after throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills last week.

The Carolina Panthers' 4-1 start was a bit fraudulent as three of their wins were 50/50 games decided by 6 points or less.  Then injuries really hit this team the last few weeks as they lost at home to the Eagles, and were embarrassed 17-3 at Chicago last week.  They managed just 3 points against the Bears despite having the ball for nearly 40 minutes in that game.

The offense has been hampered by injuries on the offensive line and to Greg Olsen.  The defense was without its best player in Luke Kuechly last week, and it's still uncertain whether he will return from a concussion this week.  They could be extra cautious with him after he missed significant time with a concussion last year.  Safety Kurt Coleman is also questionable.

The weakness of the Panthers' defense is the secondary as they allow 67% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Well, the Bucs rank 1st in the NFL in passing offense at 312 yards per game.  They are loaded with weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, a rookie out of Alabama who had two touchdown receptions last week and will play a bigger role moving forward.

Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC South opponents.  The favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +13

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation with the San Francisco 49ers catching 13 points on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  The 49ers are coming off a 40-10 blowout home loss to the Cowboys, while the Eagles are coming off a 34-24 double-digit home win over the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football.

The majority of bettors were on the Eagles in that game and will continue to back them after they looked so good.  But a lot went wrong for the Redskins as they had cluster injuries along the offensive line throughout the game.  And after playing on Monday, that makes this a short week for the Eagles, which is a disadvantage for them.  

It's also a huge letdown spot for the Eagles off that big win over a division rival, and with plenty of separation between themselves and the second-place Cowboys (3-3) with a 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.  Don't be surprised if they relax this week with the 0-7 49ers coming to town.

The Eagles lost two standouts to injury in that Redskins game as well.  Left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffered season-ending injuries in the win.  That thrusts backup tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai and linebacker Najee Goode into big roles for the first-place Eagles.  Both have been given a shot in the past, and they have mostly been unproductive.

It was an awful spot for the 49ers last week.  They were deflated following an NFL-record five straight losses by 3 points or less and by a combined 11 points.  And they were tired off a three-game road trip that featured two overtime games.  They were playing a fresh and motivated Dallas Cowboys team that was coming off a bye and two consecutive losses.  It's easy to see how they got blown out.

Now the 49ers should have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the team with the best record in the NFL right now in the Eagles.  They will look at this as an opportunity to shock the world and pull off the upset.  And now that rookie QB CJ Beathard has six quarters of NFL action under his belt, he should only continue to get better as the season progresses.

Kyle Shanahan will come up with a game plan that will allow Beathard to be successful this week.  It will revolve around exploiting an Eagles secondary that has been underwhelming this season.  The Eagles rank 29th against the pass, allowing 272.9 passing yards per game on the season.  Because the Eagles are so poor against the pass, the back door is going to be wide open even if the 49ers do find themselves down by two touchdowns or more at some point in this game.

Plays on underdogs 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games following a Monday night game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41

This is my favorite total in the NFL this week.  I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to hang a big number on this terrible Indianapolis Colts defense in what will be their best offensive performance of the season.  I also expect the Colts to do their part to help contribute to the OVER of what is a very low total of only 41 points.

The Colts rank dead last in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game.  They are 29th against the pass at 300.7 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total defense giving up 425.4 yards per game.  They are also 29th on a yards per play (6.4) basis.

Making matters worse for this Colts defense is the fact that they lost three starters to injury in a loss to the Jaguars last week.  That explains why they allowed 27 points and 518 total yards, including 330 passing to Blake Bortles of all quarterbacks.  LB John Simon, S Malik Hooker and CB Rashaan Melvin are all expected to miss this game for the Colts.  LB Anthony Walker is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected this year.  He has handled himself well and has kept his team in games.  The Colts are only averaging 17 points per game, but that's probably all they need here Sunday to help us get the OVER, which I think they can do.  Cincinnati has a good defense, but its numbers are misleading thus far due to playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Ravens, Texans, Browns, Bills, Steelers and Packers.  They gave up 420 yards and 29 points to the Steelers last week.

The OVER is 3-0 in Indianapolis' three road games this season.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 59.0 points per game on the road this season.  They are giving up a stunning 42.7 points per game away from home, which is a number that is actually higher than this 41-point total alone.

Indianapolis is 8-0 OVER in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 7-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents over the last two years.  The OVER is 9-1 in all Colts road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* USC/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +3

The Arizona State Sun Devils have flipped the switch.  Their last two games have been two of the most impressive of the entire college football season, and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  I still think this team is flying under the radar this week as home underdogs to the USC Trojans.

It started five weeks ago when they beat Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  That was a healthy Oregon team at the time.  Then they had a decent showing in a 24-34 loss at Stanford as 17-point dogs, covering the spread there as well.

Then they had their bye week and I backed them as 17.5-point home dogs to Washington.  They won that game outright 13-7, limiting a potent Washington offense to just 230 total yards and one touchdown.  If they were ever going to have a letdown, it would have been last week in Salt Lake City.  

Instead, they blasted Utah 30-10 as 10-point underdogs.  They held the Utes to just 265 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett has this defense playing at an extremely high level right now.  He has 40 years of coaching experience and was a tremendous hire by Todd Graham in the offseason.

While the Sun Devils are feeling good about themselves, the USC Trojans just suffered the type of dream-crushing loss to Notre Dame last week that could be hard to recover from.  I was on Notre Dame as my biggest play last week, and the Fighting Irish crushed them 49-14.  Now the Trojans have no shot of making the four-team playoff after coming into the season as one of the favorites to get there.

The Trojans were beaten physically at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Notre Dame.  They gave up 377 rushing yards, and only managed 76 rushing yards on 31 carries.  They have key injuries up and down the offensive and defensive lines, which has been their biggest problem this season.

Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and he has made some costly mistakes all year.  The Trojans have committed at least two turnovers in every game this season and 19 turnovers in eight games overall.  And the Trojans haven't been able to catch their breathe because they don't get a bye week all season.  It's a big reason why these injuries just keep compiling.

Yet here we are with the Trojans favored this week on the road against this upstart Arizona State team.  This despite the fact that USC has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  And Arizona State has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games while covering the spread by a combined 77.5 points. or by an average of nearly 20 points per game.  And USC needed to stop a 2-point conversion to beat Utah at home two weeks ago, while ASU beat Utah by 20 on the road last week.  That gives these teams a common opponent here recently.

Plays against favorites of 3 to 10 points (USC) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Trojans are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 road games.  The Sun Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  ASU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.

Arizona State is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 60% & 75%.  The Sun Devils are 80-48 ATS in their last 128 Saturday home games.  It will be a great atmosphere in Tempe for this late-night game on ESPN this weekend.  These fans are really excited about their team this year with the Sun Devils legitimately in the race for the Pac-12 South title after a 3-1 start in conference play.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Pistons/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208

The Los Angeles Clippers are more of a defensive team now that they swapped out Chris Paul for Patrick Beverly.  Their offense doesn't run as efficiently because Beverly is not a scorer and they lost Jamaal Crawford, so this team is hanging hats on defense led by Beverly and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers currently rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 4 points less per game than 2nd-place Boston.  And the Clippers aren't playing with much tempo offensively, ranking 19th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game.

Detroit also prefers to play at a slower tempo ranking 17th in pace at 99.9 possessions per game.  And the Pistons also are a team that relies on defense more than offense, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The head-to-head numbers also favor the UNDER.  The Pistons and Clippers have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - team who made 6 or more 3 point shots/game last season, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 46-15 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203

The Utah Jazz have been an UNDER machine this season, and we'll continue riding their unders here against the Los Angeles Lakers.  This total of 203 has clearly been inflated and I think there is still value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in all Jazz games this season.  The reason for that is the Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 97.3 possessions per game.  The Jazz rank 8th in defensive efficiency but just 26th in offensive efficiency.  The loss of Gordon Hayward makes this team even more of a worse offensive unit than last year, and they are probably even better off defensively.

The Lakers have been held to 92 or fewer points at the end of regulation in three of their five games this season. They have played well defensively in their last two games, giving up 99 points to the Wizards in OT and 101 points to the Raptors.  And they played Toronto last night, meaning their be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.

The head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Lakers and Jazz have combined for 202 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 203.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Astros Game 4 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +129

I'm backing the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 to tie up this series with the Houston Astros.  This just has the feel of a series that is going to a Game 7, and the Dodgers aren't going to just lay down and let the Astros have it.  The series is basically on the line tonight.

Alex Wood has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 15-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 26 starts.  And the thing you like about him here is that he has been at his best on the road, going 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 road starts.

Charlie Morton isn't having the best postseason, going 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in three postseason starts.  While Morton is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, Wood is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.571 WHIP in his lone career starts against Houston.

The Dodgers are 18-5 in Wood's last 23 starts.  The Astros are 15-32 in their last 47 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Dodgers are 21-7 in their last 28 interleague games.  Roll with the Dodgers in Game 4 Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Houston Rockets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They are a tired team right now, and making matters worse is that they are without two starters in Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza, as well as key bench player Nene Hilario.

The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  One of those wins came 98-90 in Houston as 8-point dogs as well.

So this will be a revenge game for the Rockets, but I don't think the revenge factor outweighs the tough spot for the Rockets with the no rest and the injuries.  And the Grizzlies are only 1-point favorites here, so they only need to win the game to cover.

Plays on home favorites (MEMPHIS) - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

25* CFB DOG OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +19

I'm not sure what Oklahoma has done to warrant being a 19-point favorite over Texas Tech.  This team has been overvalued ever since the win over Ohio State, and they haven't been able to live up to expectations.  They won't live up to them here Saturday, either.

The Sooners have gone 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and all four of their games have been decided by 8 points or less against some suspect competition.  They won 49-41 at Baylor as 28-point favorites, lost 31-38 to Iowa State as 30-point home favorites, only beat Texas 29-24 on a neutral as 8.5-point favorites, and needed a late TD to beat Kansas State 42-35 as 16-point road favorites last week.

Those aren't even four of the best teams in the Big 12.  Baylor has yet to win a game, Texas has a losing record, Iowa State has been a surprise but is no contender, and Kansas State has only one conference win.  The Sooners failed to cover the spread by a combined 69.5 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 17 points per game.

And here's why Oklahoma cannot be trusted to cover the spread this week.  The Sooners have their 'game of the year' on deck against rival Oklahoma State next week in a game that could easily decide the Big 12.  Then they play TCU the following week.  I can't help but think the Sooners will be looking ahead to that 2-game stretch and overlooking Texas Tech.

That's especially the case after Texas Tech just lost 13-31 at home to Iowa State.  I think we're getting some extra point spread value because of that effort.  But the Red Raiders gave that game away with three turnovers, including a pick-six in the fourth when they were getting back into the game.  And I wouldn't be surprise if the Red Raiders were looking ahead to their game against Oklahoma.

But make no mistake, this is an improved Texas Tech team this season.  They still have the same potent offense they always do, averaging 40.3 points and 514 yards per game.  But the difference with this team is that they now have an above-average defense.  They are only allowing 5.6 yards per play against opponents that average 5.8 yards per play, holding them to 0.2 yards per play below their season average.

And Texas Tech will always be in this game against Oklahoma because they can score at will against this suspect Sooners defense.  The Sooners are allowing 34.5 points, 453.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play in conference play against a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Red Raiders are giving up a similar 34.2 points, 440.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play in conference play against a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses that has included Oklahoma State and WVU.

Last year Texas Tech proved it could keep up with Oklahoma as 16.5-point home underdogs.  The Red Raiders lost that game 59-66, but they racked up a whopping 854 total yards and 42 first downs in that losing effort.  They are going to want some revenge here and would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma's season.  The Sooners are walking a tight rope right now with all of their recent close wins and could crash and burn here with Oklahoma State on deck.

Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley has Texas Tech ties.  He walked on for the Red Raiders as a quarterback before then-coach Mike Leach convinced him to give up playing and instead get a head start on his coaching career.  The decision helped Riley land the head coaching job with the Sooners before his 34th birthday.

"Certainly wouldn't be standing here talking to you guys without that place," Riley said. "It's always fun to play 'em. They're always somebody, when we're not playing 'em, I'm rooting for 'em."

Those are the kind of comments that make you think Riley won't be in a hurry to pour it on against Texas Tech if he gets the chance, though I don't think he will as this should be a close game throughout, just like it was when Texas Tech played Oklahoma State and WVU before.

"We need to play better," head coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "I felt like, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, we had a chance to win those games. Last week, even in the fourth quarter, we were driving before that interception and had a chance to win the game. But you can't turn the ball over three times."

Plays on a road team (TEXAS TECH) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS since 1992.  Texas Tech is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a home loss, including 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The value on this big dog is too good to pass up this weekend.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +8

This is one of the better under-the-radar rivalries in college football between border rivals Iowa and Minnesota.  They certainly have one of the better trophies of any rivalry with the massive Floyd of Rosedale at stake.  I like getting more than a touchdown here with the underdog Minnesota Golden Gophers.

These are two similar teams who are both 4-3 right now.  Both teams tend to struggle on offense, but both have made up for it by being very good on defense.  I just feel like this game is going to be decided by a touchdown or less either way given these team profiles.

Iowa has lost three of its last four games, though all four losses did come by 7 points or less.  And four of Iowa's five games against Power 5 opponents this season have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The lone exception was the misleading 45-16 home win over lowly Illinois.  But that was a 17-13 game late in the third quarter with Illinois driving before an 89-yard interception return TD.  The Hawkeyes outscored the Fighting Illini 21-0 in the fourth, but they only outgained them by 6 yards for the game.

Minnesota has had a knack for playing in close games against Power 5 opponents too.  Three of its five games that fit that description have been decided by 7 points or less.  They beat Oregon State 48-14 on the road, but lost 17-31 at Purdue.  However, the Golden Gophers were winning that game 17-16 at Purdue with less than three minutes to go.  That was a misleading loss for them.

Minnesota's defense will keep it in this ball game.  The Golden Gophers are only giving up 19.0 points, 317 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  Iowa is only averaging 26.1 points, 350 yards per game and 5.3 per play offensively.  Iowa is giving up 381 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.

Iowa hasn't been a strong against the run as it usually is.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 146 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry against teams that average 145 per game and 4.1 per carry.  So they have only been an average team against the run.  Minnesota, which rushes for 188 yards per game and 4.2 per carry, will find some success on the ground.  It also helps that the stud RB duo of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are both listed as probable this week and should both be ready to go.

Conversely, Iowa is normally a great running team, but that hasn't been the case this year.  The Hawkeyes are only averaging just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  Minnesota has been able to stop the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  You have to think that the team that runs the ball better in this one will have the advantage, and based on the numbers, that edge goes to the Gophers.

PJ Fleck is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a non-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fleck is 20-8 ATS in all road lined games as a head coach.  Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Minnesota is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -6.5

No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 7 in college football than Florida Atlantic.  It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes.  But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.

FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener.  They other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo.  But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in three Conference USA games.  I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.

It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites.  They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.  The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 75 points in their last three games, or by an average of 25 points or game.

While FAU is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now, Western Kentucky is one of the most overrated.  The Hilltoppers were the kings of the conference under Jeff Brohm the last few years, but after losing him, they have simply looked lost this season.  They are 5-2 but just 1-5-1 ATS.  And their schedule couldn't have been any easier up to this point.

WKU beat FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 31-17 as 35-point favorites in the opener.  Their 7-20 loss at Illinois as 6-point favorites looks really poor right now.  They lost 22-23 at home to LA Tech as 4-point favorites.  They only beat Ball State 33-21 at home, and that's a 2-6 Ball State team that is coming off four straight losses in MAC play since by 52, 28, 49 and 41 points.

WKU then went on the road and beat a UTEP team that is currently 0-7 by a final of 15-14 as 16-point favorites.  The only game the Hilltoppers covered came the next week with a 45-14 home win over CHarlotte as 17.5-point favorites.  Well, Charlotte is 1-7 this season.  Then last week WKU only beat Old Dominion 35-31 on the road as 6.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion gives us a recent common opponent to work with here to predict how this game will play out.  Both teams played ODU on the road within the last few weeks.  FAU beat ODU 58-28, while WKU only beat ODU 35-31.  That fact alone shows who the better team is right now, and it's not really even close.

The key matchup advantage here will be FAU's elite rushing attack up against WKU's soft run defense.  The Owls have rushed for a whopping 370.6 yards per game in their last five games.  They racked up 804 total yards against North Texas last week with 357 through the air, so they are far from one-dimensional too.

Western Kentucky allowed 248 rushing yards to Charlotte and 268 to Old Dominion in its last two games.  Teams that normally average just 3.8 yards per carry on the season are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against Western Kentucky this year.  Now the Hilltoppers face their stiffest test yet against the run as the Owls average 6.2 yards per carry.

Unlike FAU's offense, WKU's offense has been one-dimensional.  The Hilltoppers average just 82 rushing yards per game and 2.5 per carry against teams that normally give up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Their offense has been limited to just 26.9 points per game against teams that normally give up 32.2 points per game.  They no longer have the high-octane offense of year's past under Brohm.

Plays against a home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in three straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  That's the great part about backing FAU here.  Once the Owls take the lead, they'll keep adding to it because the Hilltoppers cannot stop the run.  And they only need to win by a touchdown to cover this 6.5-point spread.  That won't be a problem.  Take Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in college football.  They have gone 15-2 at home in Morgantown over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year and Oklahoma State in overtime the year before.  That was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.

West Virginia is 5-2 this season, but when you look at the two losses, they could easily be 7-0 and getting more respect from oddsmakers.  They lost 24-31 at Virginia Tech despite outgaining the Hokies by 123 yards and racking up 592 total yards of offense.  They also lost 24-31 at unbeaten TCU despite outgaining the Horned Frogs by 102 yards and racking up 508 total yards against their salty defense.

I think the Mountaineers are also getting overlooked here because of their narrow 38-36 win at Baylor last week.  But that was a misleading final as well.  WVU actually led that game 38-13 in the fourth quarter and simply packed it in.  It's easy to see how they were probably looking ahead to this game against Oklahoma State and simply took their foot off the gas too early.  But that close final is getting us some extra line value here.

Oklahoma State should have lost to Texas last week, settling for a field goal in overtime and then coming up with a huge interception on an awful pass by the Texas QB to win 13-10.  A closer look into that game shows why the Cowboys were shut down offensively.  They suffered cluster injuries on their offensive line as their starting center and starting guard will be out for this game against WVU.

The Cowboys' Mason Rudolph gets all the headlines, but it's WVU's Will Grier who leads the nation in touchdown passes with 26 while throwing only five interceptions.  I think he'll take this matchup personally and will have the Mountaineers hitting on all cylinders tonight.  And WVU will also want revenge after losing back-to-back games to the Cowboys, including that OT loss at home two years ago.  Their 20-37 road loss last year was misleading because the Mountaineers actually outgianed the Cowboys 421 to 358, but they committed three turnovers which was the difference.

Another key handicap for this game is the fact that this is a lookahead spot for Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will host the rival Oklahoma Sooners next week, and don't be surprised if they are overlooking the Mountaineers and on to that huge showdown that could decide the Big 12.  WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

20* Tulsa/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -8.5

The SMU Mustangs haven't been to a bowl game since 2012.  Chad Morris is in his third season at SMU and this is by far his best team yet.  I rode the Mustangs early in the season because I loved this team coming into the year.  And I'm back on them again Friday because of the situation.

The Mustangs beat Cincinnati 31-28 on the road last week to improve to 5-2 on the season.  Now they can taste that bowl game, and they'll be super pumped to get it done here and improve to 6-2 to get bowl eligible with a win over Tulsa Friday night.

SMU opened the season by going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its first five games.  But then it has just slightly been overvalued in its past two games, losing 22-35 in Houston as 10-point dogs, and barely failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites in that 31-28 win at Cincinnati.  But that was a misleading final against Houston as they outgained the Cougars by 81 yards in that contest.  And off two straight narrow non-covers, SMU is back to being undervalued here as only 8.5-point favorites.

Tulsa is in a tough situation mentally.  This was always going to be a rebuilding season with all they lost in the offseason, but they didn't think it would be this bad.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-6 on the season and will not be going to a bowl game because they still have road games at SMU and South Florida, and a home game at Memphis left on the schedule.  So they are simply playing for pride from here on out.

Tulsa's last chance at making a run at a bowl game was last week, but they promptly lost 14-20 at Connecticut as 4-point favorites.  And that's a terrible UConn team that lost 70-31 to Memphis recently at home.  The Golden Hurricane are running on fumes right now because they still haven't had a bye week, so they will be playing for a ninth straight week, and on a short week here with this Friday game nonetheless.

Meanwhile, SMU had a bye two weeks ago before that Cincinnati game.  That gave the Mustangs a chance to recharge their batteries and make a run here down the stretch at not only a bowl bid, but possibly a conference title if things break their way.  And they are going to want revenge after a 40-43 overtime loss in Tulsa as 15.5-point underdogs last season, only adding to their motivation here.

Tulsa's defense has been atrocious.  The Golden Hurricane are allowing 37.6 points per game, 288 rushing yards per game, 10.7 yards per pass attempt, 546 total yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  SMU can basically name its score here behind an offense that is putting up 42.0 points, 497 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  The Mustangs average 313 passing yards per game and 8.2 per attempt as well.

Offensively, Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that averages 262 rushing yards per game compared to only 183 passing yards per game.  That actually makes this a decent matchup for the Mustangs, whose weakness has been against the pass.  But the Mustangs allow a respectable 150 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

And the final case for backing SMU here is how well they've played at home.  They beat a good North Texas team 54-32, crushed the Sun Belt favorite Arkansas State 44-21, and beat that same UConn team 49-28 that Tulsa just lost to.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, scoring 51.2 points per game and giving up just 23.7 points per game.  They have won all four home games by 21 points or more.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULSA) - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Tulsa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Mustangs have only committed six turnovers in seven games this year, which is another thing I love about them.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season tonight.  They have opened 0-3 with two road losses to Oklahoma City and Boston, and a blown 20-point lead in a 107-111 home loss to the Detroit Pistons.

But the Knicks have had plenty of time to practice and get ready for this game against the Nets.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  And they are very healthy with only Jaokim Noah out right now.

The same cannot be said for the Nets, who are going to be playing without their two best guards in D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin.  The Nets have played five games already and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

This is a massive letdown spot for these young Nets, who are coming off an upset 112-107 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 8-point dogs.  The Nets have gone 3-0 at home, but they're 0-2 on the road with losses to the Pacers and Magic.  The Knicks are good enough to beat them here, especially given the spot advantages with the rest and letdown for Brooklyn.

The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in home games off a road loss to a division rival over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  New York is 15-3 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three years.  Brooklyn is 13-27 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last three years.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3

The Houston Astros are way overvalued right now.  They lost 90-98 as 8-point home favorites against Memphis, and hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat the 76ers 105-104 as 3-point road favorites.  They failed to cover in both games, and they'll fail to do so again here on the road against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team that I expect to be a sleeper in the East.  They have gone 2-0 at home, beating the Hawks by 18 and the Nuggets by 17.  And they haven't even been fully healthy.  But they got two key pieces back from injury in Malik Monk and Michael Gidd-Gilchrist prior to the Nuggets game, and they will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Rockets are far from healthy, and they lost a lot of their depth when they traded for Chris Paul while losing Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly to the Clippers.  So far, so good for the 4-0 Clippers.  And now Paul is out for a few weeks with a knee injury.  Fellow starter Trevor Ariza is out with a foot injury, and they really miss him because he's their best defender and a great 3-point shooter.  And key bench player Nene Hilario is doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - off a road win by 3 points or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Houston is 9-20 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Hornets are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are likely to be without their best player in Anthony Davis for this game.  Davis suffered a knee injury that forced him out after five minutes against the Blazers last time out, and the Pelicans went on to lose that game 93-103.

I keep wanting to fade the Pelicans because Alvin Gentry called DeMarcus Cousins their best 3-point shooter.  That just shows the lack of shooting on this team.  And you'll hear a lot about Cousins wanting revenge on his former team leading up to this game, but what about Buddy Hield for the Kings?  He'll want the same thing against the Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 1-3 this season, but all three losses came by 8 points or more.  The Kings are also 1-3, but two of their losses came by 2 and 5 points.  I just don't know what the Pelicans are going to be able to do without Davis, especially against an improved Kings defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game this season.  The Pelicans give up a ridiculous 111.5 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won three straight, and the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Sacramento is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

20* Stanford/Oregon State Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +21

The Oregon State Beavers played their best game of the season in their first game since Gary Andersen stepped down.  Interim coach Cory Hall took over, and the Beavers only lost 36-33 to Colorado as 9.5-point dogs last Saturday.

The Beavers really should have won that game.  They racked up 569 total yards and actually outgained Colorado by 184 yards in that contest.  Star running back Ryan Nall returned from injury and rushed for 172 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado, both season highs.

"We're playing good ball right now. We've just got to fine tune some things right now," Nall said following the game.

Stanford's run defense, typically a strength, is struggling this season. The Cardinal rank No. 98 nationally with 195.4 yards per game allowed.  So look for Nall to find plenty of success running the football, especially since he's fresh now after getting a bye last week to further recover from his previous injury that hampered him early in the season.

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' type of game.  The Beavers are 1-6, and they opened the season going 0-5 ATS.  But they have been undervalued in their last two games and have covered inflated numbers against both USC and Colorado, and now this is another inflated number because Stanford is has won four straight and is coming off a 49-7 beat down of Oregon.

But Stanford has not played well at all on the road.  In its three true road games, it is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS.  It lost 24-42 at USC as 3.5-point dogs, lost 17-20 at San Diego State as 8-point favorites, and only beat Utah 23-20 as closing 3-point favorites, though that line was hovering up around 7 most of the week.

Oregon State has played Stanford very tough in recent years.  They have only lost once by more than 18 points in the last five meetings.  They only lost 15-26 as 16.5-point road dogs last year, and 24-42 as 14-point home dogs in 2015.  And those were worse Oregon State teams than this 2017 version as this should have been Andersen's best team yet.  But he didn't get the most out of his players this year, and so far the switch to Hall as interim coach has brought the best out of them.  I look for that to continue this week.

And finally, Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love is questionable for this game with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision.  It would be wise for the Cardinal to rest him and get him ready for the stretch run. I like Oregon State at this +21 number whether or not Love plays, but it would obviously be a huge bonus if he doesn't.  Love is averaging 198.1 rushing yards per game and 10.3 per carry this season.  He is all they have offensively.

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games following a close loss to a conference opponent by 7 points or less.  The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.  Oregon State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 October games.  The Beavers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  The Beavers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Oregon State Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Ravens NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins have done a great job of getting to 4-2 this season despite the ineptitude of Jay Cutler.  But because the Dolphins gave Cutler all they money, they figured they had to stick with him.  A blessing in disguise happened last week.

Cutler was knocked out of the game against the Jets with a rib injury.  Matt Moore, who should have been starting for this team all along, promptly led the Dolphins back from a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win 31-28.  Moore completed 13 of 21 passes for 188 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Now Moore will get the start this Thursday against the Ravens, and I obviously believe it's an upgrade from Cutler.  This offense just has too many weapons to be held back for much longer, and I've have to say scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter last week against a good Jets defense will be a sign of things to come for this team with Moore at the helm.

But the biggest reason the Dolphins are 4-2 right now is because they have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  They are allowing just 18.7 points, 308 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that normally average 21.9 points, 341 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The Ravens are a mess and should not be favored in this game.  They have so many injuries throughout the lineup that I'm not going to even take the time to mention them all.  Let's just say this, their have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.

The Ravens have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games.  They lost 44-7 to Jacksonville in London, 9-26 to Pittsburgh at home, 24-27 to Chicago at home and 16-24 to Minnesota on the road.  Their only win came against EJ Manuel and the Raiders.  And their last two games against Chicago and Minnesota were misleading.  They got two special teams touchdowns against the Bears and still lost, and they scored a meaningless TD on the final play of the game to turn a 15-point loss into an 8-point loss at Minnesota.

The Ravens still have a respectable defense that is giving up 21.1 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 19.8 points and 324 yards per game.  But their offense is atrocious, averaging just 18.6 points, 278 yards per game and 4.5 per play.  And that point total would be a lot less if not for all of their defensive and special teams TDs this year.  Joe Flacco is broken, and is missing a handful of weapons due to injury.  The offensive line has been a disaster since losing Marshall Yanda as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (MIAMI) - off one or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 66-27 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Baltimore is 1-8 ATS after going over the total in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Ravens are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Ravens need the game more, but they aren't equipped to get a win given their injury situation.  The Dolphins are far and away the better team right now.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

15* Celtics/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics don't have to wait long for their shot at revenge against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They lost to the Bucks 108-100 at home on October 18th just a week ago.  But that was an awful spot for the Celtics as they were coming off a 99-102 loss to the Cavs the night before on opening night, and they were still reeling emotionally from the season-ending injury to Gordon Hayward.

Now the Celtics have had some time to get off the loss of Hayward and have really shown some nice fight in two games since.  They beat the 76ers 102-92 as 3-point road dogs next time out, then crushed New York 110-89 as 7-point home favorites on Tuesday.  The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they've had plenty of practice time to fine-tune things moving forward.

The Bucks are 3-1 this season but are overvalued because of it.  They barely beat the Blazers 113-110 at home, and needed a huge finish to the fourth quarter to pull away from the Hornets for a 103-94 victory.  They had lost to the Cavs 97-116 at home the game before, and I can't give them much credit for their win over the Celtics given the tough spot for Boston.

Home-court advantage hasn't meant much in this series.  The road team has won three of the last four meetings straight up.  And the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The underdog is also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. 

Jason Kidd is 11-29 ATS in home games after winning two of their last three games as the coach of Milwaukee.  Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games against Central Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games off two consecutive wins against division opponents.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 196.5

This is one of my favorite situations to take an UNDER in the NBA.  This is the classic home-and-home situation.  Memphis played in Dallas last night, and now Dallas has to play in Memphis tonight.  Teams get familiar with one another in these situations, and points are harder to come by in the rematch as a result.

Last night the Grizzlies and Mavs combined for 197 points in a 103-94 Dallas victory.  Now we are getting a total of 196.5, and if my theory is correct, we'll easily cash the UNDER as this game is sure to be more low scoring than the first meeting.  And both teams shot well last night as the Mavs shot 48.6% and made 11 3-pointers, while the Grizzlies shot 45.8% and made 12 3-pointers.  Don't expect either to shoot that well again.

This head-to-head series has been very low scoring recently as it is.  The Mavs and Grizzlies have combined for 197 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  And they have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.  So we are getting that 9 points of value even before you factor in this perfect UNDER situation with the home-and-home.

Memphis is 16-6 to the UNDER in it home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-7-2 in Mavericks last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Mavericks last 28 games following a straight up win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Wizards/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The Los Angeles Lakers didn't take too kindly to Marcin Gortat's tweet that John Wall 'will torture' Lonzo Ball tonight.  Look for them to be playing with a little more spirit than usual tonight when these two meet in L.A. on ESPN.

"Yeah, of course we did," Ingram said when asked if he saw Gortat's tweet on Monday. "Everyone has social media, definitely saw it. The competitor in Lonzo, of course he didn't take it so well and, with his teammates behind him, we didn't take it so well."

I think the Wizards are overvalued here due to their 3-0 start to the season.  But they could easily be 0-3 as their wins over the 76ers (by 5), Pistons (by 4) and Nuggets (by 5) all came by 5 points or less.  And that fact alone shows that we are getting some serious value with the Lakers as 7-point dogs.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns made the coaching change and send Eric Bledsoe home and promptly won their first game of the season.  It's like clockwork when a team makes a coaching change that they are going to play well in that first game.  And I look for the Suns to continue playing well tonight.

The Suns are undervalued right now due to their slow start to the season.  They are catching a whopping 7 points at home tonight against the Utah Jazz.  You look at the lines for their previous three home games and you can see how we're getting value here.  They were 2.5-point dogs to the Blazers, 3.5-point favorites over the Lakers, and 2-point dogs to the Kings.

Conversely, the Jazz are overvalued due to their 3-1 ATS start this season.  But the Jazz are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an 84-102 loss in Los Angeles last night.  They used a lot of energy cutting the deficit to single-digits in the fourth quarter last night, but ran out of gas in the final few minutes.  They won't have a whole lot left in the tank here to put away the Suns by more than 7 points.

All three meetings between Utah and Phoenix were decided by 7 points or less last season.  The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Jazz are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation in the NBA.  We'll sell high on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-0 on the season, and buy low on the Dallas Mavericks, who are 0-4 on the season and still in search of their first victory.

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for that first win tonight.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in a massive letdown spot off back-to-back upset victories over the Warriors and Rockets.  They won't show up tonight.

"We've got to scratch and claw our way out of this," head coach Rick Carlisle said. "There's no other way. Our disposition has to pick up. We have to be totally together. We're missing a couple guys, but we have enough to win with what we have. Everybody's got to dig deep."

The Mavericks have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Grizzlies.  Plays against favorites (MEMPHIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5

The Utah Jazz are going to remain a great UNDER bet until oddsmakers catch up with them.  They are 2-0-1 to the UNDER htis season, averaging just 99.7 points per game on offense and giving up 94.3 points per game on defense.

The reasons the Jazz are such a good UNDER bet this year is because they lost their best scorer in Gordon Hayward, and they're still built around defense, but even more so this year.  This is a team that consistently ranks toward the bottom of the league in pace and toward the top of the league in defensive efficiency.

That has been the case again this season.  The Jazz rank dead last in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.  But they are 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Clippers are now built to play a similar style to the Jazz, swapping out elite point guard Chris Paul for the defense-first minded Patrick Beverly.  It's no surprise that they are leading the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.6 points per 100 possessions despite playing two up-tempo teams in the Suns and Lakers.

And the head-to-head series really favors the UNDER tonight.  The Jazz are clippers have combined for 195 or fewer points in five of their last seven meetings.  And like I said, they were two teams that were much better offensively prior to this season. 

The Clippers are 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 12-3 to the UNDER when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers get to play their first home game tonight after an impressive three-game road trip to open the season.  They won 124-76 in Phoenix, 114-96 in Indiana and lost 110-113 at Milwaukee.

They will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd here tonight as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  Fans are excited about this team that made a huge run in the second half last year to make the playoffs after trading for Jusuf Nurkic.

The Pelicans have opened 1-2 with a 91-103 loss in Memphis, a 120-128 home loss to Golden State and a 119-112 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This team is so limited in the shooting department as DeMarcus Cousins in their best 3-point shooter.  They are fade material because of their lack of shooting, and the big names on the roster have them consistently overvalued.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Blazers have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Pelicans.  And they only have to cover 4.5 points here, which is too low.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* Astros/Dodgers Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 7

Game 1 will be one of the hottest in World Series history.  Temperatures are expected to reach 100 degrees Tuesday and in the 90's by the first pitch.  The ball will be flying off the bat tonight.

Both lineups are right-handed heavy this season, especially the Astros.  That will benefit both offenses going up against a pair of left-handers in Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel.  Kershaw hasn't been at his best in the postseason throughout his career and has proven to be very hittable.  Kershaw has allowed 6 homers in his last three postseason starts.

Dallas Keuchel has some of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball.  He has been terrible on the road compared to at home throughout his career.  He has a 2.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 81 appearances at home compared to a 4.43 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 77 appearances on the road.

The Dodgers average 5.4 runs per game against left-handed starters while the Astros average 5.6 per game against southpaws, and 6.0 per game on the road.

Houston is 15-3 OVER in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season this season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Astros last eight vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last seven home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Wizards NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their roster is absolutely loaded and they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.  And they got better in the offseason by swapping defensive liability Danilo Gallinari out for veteran Paul Millsap and his elite defending and scoring skills.

The Nuggets blew a double-digit lead and lost in Utah in their opener.  But they bounced back with a 96-79 home win over the Kings in their home opener.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will be ready for the Wizards.

The Wizards have been extremely shaky despite playing two home games against two sub-par Eastern Conference teams.  They only won 120-115 over the 76ers as 6.5-point favorites, and also failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites over the Pistons in a 115-111 win.  They have a good starting lineup, but their bench is one of the worst in the NBA, and now they'll be without two key pieces in Markieff Morris and Jason Smith tonight.

The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Monday.

20* Redskins/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4.5

I tried to look for reasons to back the Redskins in this game.  I usually like backing teams playing with division revenge; a team that lost their first meeting of the season with a division opponent.  But that's the only reason I can come up with for the Redskins.  Every other factor points to the Eagles Monday night.

And I think what trumps the division revenge here is that fact that the Eagles want the game just as badly due to their struggles against the Redskins over the last few seasons.  The Eagles had lost five straight to the Redskins before winning 30-17 in Washington in Week 1 this week.  And what better way for them to get their revenge than by sweeping Washington here and burying them in the division standings.

I just think that the general public doesn't want to believe that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL.  But here we are and the Eagles have the best record in the league at 5-1.  And absolutely nothing has been fluky about their record.  They have handled their business and their only loss came to arguably the next-best team in the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20 on the road.

Carson Wentz has this offense playing at a high level, averaging 27.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. The defense has been very good as well in limiting opponents to 20.3 points per game.  They have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, giving up only 66 rushing yards per game while applying consistent pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL in the injury department, the same cannot be said for the Redskins.  The Eagles are expected to get tackle Lane Johnson back from a one-game absence because they played last Thursday and have had extra time to get ready for the Redskins.  And Wentz's success has almost exclusively been tied to whether or not Johnson is in the lineup over the past few seasons.  RB Wendell Smallwood is also back in the lineup this week and adds a nice dimension to the offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

Wentz should have his way with a banged-up Washington defense that allowed 24 points to CJ Beathard and the 49ers last week.  The Redskins were fortunate to escape with a 26-24 victory as 11-point favorites.  Now the Redskins are going to be without CB Josh Norman.  Their second-best CB Bashaud Breeland is questionable with a knee injury.  Starting S Deshazor Everett is also questionable, as is his backup Stefan McClure.  And DE Jonathan Allen has been placed on injured reserve.  So they could be without three starters in the secondary, and Allen's loss cannot be overstated.

On the Monday Night stage, the Eagles will not have a letdown here.  Their fans are going wild about this team and we won't hear the boo birds that we used to back when this was a mediocre team.  This is a real home-field advantage now with the way this team is playing.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have played a brutal schedule in the early going and have gotten through it at 2-1.  They won in Boston, lost at home to Cleveland, and beat Portland at home.  Now they finally get a bit of a break here against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team I think will be good when healthy, but that's not the case right now.  They are missing two starters in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and they are missing two of their first players off the bench in Malik Monk and Cody Zeller.

The Hornets lost 90-102 in their only road game in Detroit.  Then they had to erase a halftime deficit with a huge second half to beat the lowly Atlanta Hawks at home.  The Hawks may be the worst team in the NBA this season. This is a big step up in class for the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Central division opponents.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Take the Bucks Monday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +6

This inflated line is a clear overreaction from the Steelers' 19-13 win in Kansas City last week to hand the Chiefs their first loss.  I was on the Steelers in that game because I thought the Chiefs were being overvalued, but now this is a role reversal and the Steelers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  It's a letdown spot for them off such a big win.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have been waiting in the wings on their bye week getting ready to beat their most hated rivals in the Steelers.  And they are off two consecutive wins that has gotten them back into the playoff picture.  They are looking at this as their biggest game of the season considering the Steelers lead the AFC North at 4-2, and a loss here would almost surely ruin the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs.  So we're going to get a huge effort from Cincinnati here.

I've been on the Bengals in their last two games and I'll ride them for a third straight for many of the same reasons.  Andy Dalton has looked like a completely different quarterback with Bill Lazor calling the plays the last three games.   Dalton has completed 68-of-93 (73.1%) passes for 826 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  One of those picks was a drop by AJ Green.

If you dig deep into the Bengals' numbers, it's easy to see that they are much better team than their 2-3 record would indicate.  They lost on the road to the Packers in overtime, beat the Browns 31-7 on the road while outgaining them by 135 yards, then beat the Bills 20-16 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained Buffalo by 167 yards.

Since getting their defensive leader Vontaze Burfict back from a 3-game suspension in Week 4, the defense has really showed what it is capable of.  The Bengals allowed just 215 total yards to the Browns and 221 to the Bengals in their two games with Burfict on the field.  The Bengals are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 262.8 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  They are averaging 5.3 per play on offense, outgaining teams by 0.9 yards per play, which is the sign of an elite team.

The Steelers have also been improved defensively this season, and it's pretty much a wash there with Cincinnati, though the Bengals do have the better stats.  But this Pittsburgh offense is broken and cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number.  The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 points per game this season.  They are becoming too predictable with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Browns getting what seems like 90% of the touches.

Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Broncos/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most hard-luck teams in the NFL over the last few years.  They have found ways to lose close game after close game.  They opened this season 0-4 while losing three of their first four games by 3 points or less.  To say they were due for some good luck in close games would be a massive understatement.

Lo and behold, the Chargers have won back-to-back close games with a 5-point road win over the Giants and a 1-point road win over the Raiders the past two weeks.  Now the Chargers are starting to feel good about themselves and gaining confidence.  And with the Chiefs losing two in a row, they can get right back in the thick of things within the division with another win here over the Broncos.

Now they'll be motivated for revenge against their division rivals.  The Chargers lost 21-24 in Denver in their opener after missing a game-tying field goal that would have forced overtime.  They went on to miss another field goal the next week against the Dolphins that would have won it.  That's how close this team is to being 4-2.

And while the Chargers are a team on the rise, the Broncos are going the other direction.  They just suffered an inexplicable 23-10 home loss to the Giants as 13.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football last week.  And they suffered several key injuries during that game that contributed to the loss, and those injuries continue to hamper them this week.

Trevor Siemian injured his shoulder and had to be replaced in the game.  Siemian is expected to play this week, but we'll gladly fade any quarterback with a shoulder injury.  And he lost one of his favorite targets in Emmanuel Sanders to an ankle injury.  Sanders is out this week, and his other favorite target Demaryius Thomas is hampered with a calf injury.  Not to mention, the offensive line will be without tackle Menelik Watson, and his backup Donald Stephenson is also out.

San Diego has one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are animals.  The Chargers should be able to get after Siemian and take advantage of this banged up Broncos offensive line.  This is a Chargers defense that has allowed just 21.8 points and 338 yards per game this season.  They have allowed only 186 passing yards per game.  They are going to be able to stack eight in the box to stop the run because a banged-up Siemian and his limited receiving options aren't going to be able to do much through the air.  Stud corner Casey Hayward will shut down Demaryius Thomas.

Philip Rivers has some of the best weapons he has had in his career.  The Chargers have finally given Hunter Henry more playing time in favor of Antonio Gates.  Keenan Allen is a beast at receiver, and rookie first-round pick Mike Williams recently returned from injury and will only get better.  Melvin Gordon has shown that he is one of the best backs in the NFL.

The Broncos have benefited from an easy schedule.  They have played four of their first five games at home.  Their only road game resulted in a 16-26 loss to a mediocre at best Buffalo Bills team.  I know the Chargers don't have much of a home-field advantage these days, but the fans should be more welcoming now and appreciate the fact that the Chargers continue to fight and have won two straight coming in.  The home team has won four straight in this series.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3

The Chicago Bears continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 3-point home dogs to the Carolina Panthers.  All the Bears have done is go 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog.  We'll gladly take the points here in a game the Bears likely win outright over the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears have gone 3-0 ATS as home this season.  They should have beaten the Falcons outright in Week 1 if not for some drops in the closing seconds.  They did beat the Steelers 23-17 as 7-point dogs.  And they only lost 17-20 to the Vikings on a last-second field goal as 3.5-point dogs.

Mitchell Trubisky showed some moxy in going into Baltimore and leading his team to a 27-24 win over the Ravens as 5-point dogs.  And the Ravens even got two special teams touchdowns in that game, which is the only reason it went to overtime.  It helps that Trubisky has a running game to rely on and take the pressure off of him.

Indeed, Chicago ranks No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL with an average of 136.0 rushing yards per game.  Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his first six games.  Tarik Cohen has been a revelation in the backfield with his running and pass-catching abilities.  And Trubisky's mobility has been a nice added dimension.

The Bears have the worst turnover differential (-8) in the NFL.  That was a big reason for their early struggles, but most of those mistakes can be attributed to Mike Glennon.  If they can take care of the football, their defense is good enough to keep them in games.  In fact, it has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL.

The Bears allowed just 303 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 346 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are holding foes to 43 yards and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That is the sign of an elite defense.

The Panthers have also been great defensively this season, but that was largely due to having one of the best defenders in the NFL in Luke Kuechly back and healthy.  And Kuechly suffered another concussion last week against the Eagles.  After he went out, the Panthers fell apart, losing 23-28 at home.  

Kuechly has been ruled out for this game.  The Panthers had a good run defense with him, but without the perennial leading tackler in the NFL they won't be nearly as effective stopping the run against the Bears this week.  He is worth more to the spread than the oddsmakers have adjusted for in this matchup.

The Panthers have been well below-average this season on offense.  They are only averaging 21.3 points, 323 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced one of the easiest slates of opposing defenses who give up 22.3 points, 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play on average.  Cam Newton missed Greg Olsen, and he could also be without his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin this week, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The Bears are 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games overall.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Chicago is flying under the radar right now and we'll continue cashing in on them while that's the case.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -3.5

The USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are two popular teams in terms of the betting public.  They love to bet on both of them.  But the difference between these teams this season is that Notre Dame is for real, while USC is a complete fraud.

The Fighting Irish came into the season with limited outside expectations for the first time in a long time after going just 4-8 last season.  And now I still think they are flying under the radar despite their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start.  This team is the real deal.

The only loss came 19-20 at home to Georgia, a Georgia team that is easily one of the best four teams in college football and will likely make the four-team playoff.  The other five games the Fighting Irish have played have all resulted in blowouts by 20 or more points in their favor.  That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, a win that looks better and better as the season goes along.

Now the Fighting Irish have had two full weeks to get ready for USC after having their bye last week.  That's a huge advantage and one that is worth a lot more points to the spread than this small 3.5-point line.  Especially when you consider the Fighting Irish now get starting QB Brandon Wimbush back from a one-game absence due to injury.  They didn't need him to beat UNC 33-10 on the road two weeks ago, but they need him here against USC.

USC came into the season as a national title contender.  The Trojans have been anything but.  Despite their 6-1 record, they are just 1-6 ATS.  They lost at Washington State, needed overtime to beat Texas, and needed to stop a 2-point conversion in the final seconds last week to beat Utah 28-27 at home.

This tough schedule is starting to catch up to the Trojans.  They don't get a bye week this season, which is a huge disadvantage, especially after a tough physical game with Utah last week.  And they have a laundry list of injuries, especially up front along the offensive line.  Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and turnovers have been a big problem.  In fact, the Trojans have committed two or more turnovers in all seven games this season, and 16 turnovers overall.  That is a trend, not bad luck.

And Notre Dame has been good at forcing turnovers, getting two or more takeaways in five of six games this year and 14 takeaways overall.  They have only turned the ball over seven times.  This game is likely to be decided with turnovers, and the big edge goes to the Fighting Irish there.

What the Fighting Irish are doing in the running game is remarkable this season.  They are averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  Wimbush has rushed for 402 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.9 per carry.  And Josh Adams has been unstoppable behind a dominant offensive line, rushing for 776 yards and five scores while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per carry.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Fighting Irish want revenge from a 27-45 road loss at USC last season.  USC is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games off two straight ATS losses where they won straight up as a favorite.  The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +7

I've backed the LSU Tigers with success each of the last two weeks.  I had them as +3.5 dogs in a 17-16 win at Florida, and +7 dogs in a 23-21 home win over Auburn last week.  But now I'm changing course and fading them this week because they are now overvalued here as 7-point road favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels.

After beating Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Tigers.  And they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for those wins.  They easily could have lost both games.  Florida missed an extra point that would have forced overtime, and Auburn blew a 20-0 lead.  I was clearly fortunate to win both of those games backing LSU.

This Ole Miss offense has been mighty impressive the last couple weeks.  They managed 429 total yards and 23 points on a very good Auburn defense on the road.  Then they beat Vanderbilt 57-35 last week while racking up 603 total yards against a decent Commodores defense.

Ole Miss boasts the best quarterback that not many have heard about in Shea Patterson.  He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,143 yards with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. He has three stud receivers on the outside in A.J. Brown (35 receptions, 678 yards, 6 TD), DaMarkus Lodge (24, 438, 6 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (25, 357, 4 TD).

LSU hasn't seen playmakers this good since a 7-37 road loss at Mississippi State in Week 3.  This will be just the third road game for the Tigers this season.  They are averaging just 12.0 points per game in their two true road games this season.  Their offense remains limited, which is why they cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the past eight meetings overall.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against a road team (LSU) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 71-31 (69.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are two one-point losses away from being 5-1 this season.  They lost 16-17 at South Carolina as 9.5-point dogs, and 22-23 at UAB as 9.5-point favorites.  Those two losses look better and better by the week.  But because LA Tech is just 3-3, it is undervalued right now.

The Bulldogs will now be coming off their bye week and hungry for a victory following that loss to UAB.  And they have one of the more underrated home-field advantages of the small schools down in Ruston, Louisiana. I look for them to make easy work of the Southern Miss Eagles this week.

This is a Southern Miss team that comes in overvalued due to its 4-2 start.  But the Golden Eagles really only have one good win at UTSA 31-29.  The other three came against Southern, LA Monroe and UTEP.  They lost to the two best teams they played in Kentucky and North Texas, including a 28-43 home loss to the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech is going to want revenge from a 39-24 loss at Southern Miss last year.  But I was on Southern Miss in that game because of the spot.  LA Tech had already clinched a trip to the C-USA title game the previous week, and Southern Miss was playing for a bowl game.  It was an easy choice on the Golden Eagles are 14.5-point home dogs.  But this time around, LA Tech needs the win more and it's a better spot for them because they are coming off a bye.

Louisiana Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games off two or more consecutive unders.  The Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a game in which they did not force a turnover.  The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -11

Tulane is a team I've backed a couple times with success this year.  It's a team I really like due to head coach Willie Fritz, but I think the Green Wave are going to be in over their heads here against one of the better teams in the country in the South Florida Bulls.

South Florida has opened 6-0 this season.  The Bulls were flat in their first two games under Charlie Strong, not quite living up to expectations while failing to cover the spread.  But this team has steadily gotten better through the season and is peaking right now.  The Bulls won 47-23 over Illinois as 16.5-point favorites, beat Temple 43-7 as 17.5-point favorites, won at ECU 61-31 as 21.5-point favorites and shut down Cincinnati 33-3 as 24-point home favorites.  That's four straight covers.

Now the Bulls are only being asked to lay 11 points because they are on the road here.  This is a Bulls team that has scored at least 30 points in 23 straight games, the longest current streak at the FBS level.  The Bulls are averaging 42.8 points this season, and it's their ability to put up points in a hurry that makes this 11-point spread so low.

Strong's calling card has always been defense, and that's been the case in his first year at USF.  The Bulls rank third in the nation in rushing defense (77.8 yards/game), and No. 8 in rushing offense (293 yards/game).  Top-ranked Alabama and No. 3 Georgia are the only other teams that rank in the top 10 in both categories.  USF also ranks first in the nation in interceptions (15) and turnover margin (+13).

Tulane has been held to 21 or fewer points in four of its six games this year.  We saw what happened to the Green Wave when they took a step up in class in Week 3, losing 14-56 at Oklahoma.  They also were terrible last week in a 10-23 loss at Florida International as 12-point favorites.

This is a big matchup problem for the Green Wave.  They primarily run the football, averaging 50 rush attempts per game and 278 yards per game, compared to 15 pass attempts per game and 102 passing yards per game.  Well, as stated before, USF is third in the country against the run.  They give up just 78 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry this season.

Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games vs. excellent offensive teams who average 450 or more yards per game.  USF is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 conference games.  Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -7

The UCF Knights have been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, but that only tells half the story.  Not only are they covering, they are covering by massive margins.  They have covered the point spread by a combined 102 points this season.  That's an average cover of 20 points per game.

I still don't believe the oddsmakers have caught up with them this week.  Now they are only being asked to lay a touchdown on the road at Navy.  I think Navy gets a lot of respect because they have been great as an underdog and as a covering team overall.  But this Navy team is more vulnerable than in year's past.

Navy is 5-1 this season, but four of those wins came by 10 points or less, including two by a combined five points.  And they have played an extremely soft schedule against FAU, Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Air Force and Memphis.  I'd say Memphis was the best team they've played, and they lost 27-30 to them last week.

What's great about this game is we already have some common opponents to compare these teams.  UCF won on the road at Cincinnati 51-23 in a game that was cut short by rain.  Navy only beat Cincinnati 42-32 at home.  UCF crushed Memphis 40-13 at home, while Navy lost at Memphis 27-30 on the road.

This is a UCF offense that is humming along, averaging 50.6 points per game. 547 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The Knights will find plenty of success against a Navy defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game, 6.2 yards per play and 8.5 yards per pass.

The reason UCF is probably the best team in the AAC is because it plays defense.  The Knights only allow 16.8 points per game and 5 yards per play.  They are only giving up 110 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  This game will be a mismatch athletically on both sides of the ball as the UCF team speed will be the difference.

Scott Frost has brought his offense in from Oregon and it is hitting on all cylinders right now.  Frost actually played scout-team quarterback for UCF this week, impersonating Navy's Zach Abbey and the triple-option.  This UCF team is having a lot of fun right now and they just have a great vibe to them with Frost.  He's clearly not going to be around much longer with the kind of success he's had here, taking a team that was 0-12 in 2015 to one that is now a contender to get the Group of 5 New Year's bowl game.

"He's running, dropping dimes," linebacker Chequan Burkett said. "You just think in your head, 'Hey man, this guy won a national championship doing this, so it's a wonderful experience to be able to face a quarterback who really did this and happens to be our head coach. He's giving us a great look. If he puts on shoulder pads and full gear, you'd really think he'd want to play us."

For Frost, the decision to run the scout team was an easy one. With both Georgia Tech and Navy on the 2017 schedule -- UCF visits the Midshipmen on Saturday -- Frost and his staff knew they had to start practice against the option months in advance. Most teams do that, just to get their teams acquainted with the offense.

"There is an art to playing option quarterback," he says. "I can't tell you how many reps I have at doing that kind of stuff. Even though I'm slow and old, it's probably still better than somebody that's doing it for the first time."

"He wanted to make sure that when the time came for us to play an option team that it wasn't a surprise," linebacker Shaquem Griffin said. "We didn't understand then, 'Why are we doing this now?' But going through the first day of practice Monday and everybody flying around and fitting the right spots, it showed what we did in spring and summer is paying off. I feel we're a step ahead. It's not like we're learning something new."

They'll be ready for the triple option Saturday.  And with the athletic mismatch on the field you'll witness this weekend, needing UCF to only win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is a gift from oddsmakers.  Take UCF Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +7

The Nevada Wolf Pack are clearly a bet-on team moving forward.  They have opened 1-6 this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But what I've seen from them the last two weeks is a good sign of things to come in the near future.

It was always going to take some time for first-year head coach Jay Norvell to get this team firing on all cylinders.  He had to implement his Air-Raid offense, and after a slow start, this offense is really firing right now.

Two weeks ago Nevada beat Hawaii 35-21 at home as 5.5-point underdogs.  The offense racked up a whopping 566 total yards in the win.  Then last week was even more impressive as the Wolf Pack nearly pulled the upset as 24-point road dogs at Colorado State, only losing 42-44.  They threw for a ridiculous 508 yards in that game and are clearly playing well offensively.

This is an Air Force team that is way down this season with a 2-4 start to the year.  The only two wins were against Virginia Military and UNLV.  The Falcons had to erase a 27-7 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30 as 9-point home favorites.  They expanded a lot of energy with that comeback, so this will be a tough spot for them on this short week.  And they have a huge game against rival Army on deck next week, so it's also a bit of a look-ahead spot.

This is an Air Force defense that has allowed at least 28 points in five straight games.  And they gave up 56 to New Mexico, 48 to Navy and 30 to UNLV the last three weeks.  So there's no question this Air Raid Nevada offense is going to be able to move the ball and score points at will on what is an inexperienced Air Force defense that returned just one starter from last year.

Plays against road favorites (AIR FORCE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Air Force is 0-7 ATS against teams who give up 425 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wolf Pack tonight.  Bet Nevada Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost their opener 99-107 at San Antonio.  They went cold down the stretch.  Now they head back to Minnesota for their first home game, and it will be a great environment as these fans have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time.

The Timberwolves are a legit contender in the Western Conference now.  They added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson and pair then with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  You would be hard-pressed to find many better starting lineups than this one.

The Utah Jazz come in overvalued after their 106-96 home win over Denver.  The Jazz erased a double-digit lead and started needed a 28-13 fourth quarter to win that game.  I'm not very high on this Jazz team with a loss of Gordon Hayward.  There just isn't much talent on this team outside of Rudy Gobert.

The Timberwolves are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Milwaukee +3

The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money in the East this season.  Now they want to prove that right away as they get to host the Cavs tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as home dogs here.

The great thing about this game is that both teams have a common opponent in their opener to compare to.  The Cavs only beat the Celtics 102-99 at home, while the Bucks beat the Celtics 108-100 on the road.  Now they have a shot to get to 2-0 against the two teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

"I think we're capable of doing big things this year," Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "We've just got to stay focused, stay grounded ... and try to have the same mentality. We're the underdogs. We're not a big-market team, we're not a big team, we're young, so we've just got to play with a chip on our shoulder and hopefully this season we can be one of the best teams in the East."

In four meetings with the Cavs last season, the Bucks were only outscored by a combined 7 points.  They won their first home meeting 118-101 last year and lost the other in overtime.  Cleveland is 13-26 ATS vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Friday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47

There are several factors that have me backing the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.  Not the least of which is the fact that this is a division rivalry, and these teams are extremely familiar with one another.

And this head-to-head series has been very low-scoring in recent years.  Indeed, the Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 44 or fewer points in five of their six meetings over the past three seasons.  They combined for 34 and 36 points in their two meetings last year.  And they have averaged 42.0 combined points in their last six meetings and just 36.7 points in their last three.

The Raiders are struggling offensively this season.  They have scored just 10, 10, 17 and 16 points in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 47 or fewer points in five of their six games this season with their opponents as well.  The defense is holding its own, giving up 21 points per game this year.

I think this total has been inflated because of all the early high-scoring games the Chiefs played in.  But then they had a ton of injuries heading into the Steelers game last week, especially to their pass-catchers on offense.  And they proceeded to lose 13-19 for 32 combined points.  Those injuries aren't going to be healed just four days later in this Thursday night game.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raiders last five vs. AFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in this series.  Andy Reid is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Knicks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +12.5

The hype on the Oklahoma City Thunder right now has them overvalued coming into the season.  They traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, which gives them a Big 3 with Russell Westbrook.  But it's going to take some time for these guys to gel, and they now have no depth on the bench because of these trades.  Two of the first guys off the bench will be Pattrick Patterson and Raymond Felton, and both are questionable with injuries tonight.

The Knicks come into the season getting no love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which is kind of a perfect storm here.  But they do have some nice depth now with the additions of Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.  They also have Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley coming off the bench.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are all underrated players in my book.  And rookie PG Frank Ntilikina has some veterans behind him in Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack to help him along.  Willy Hernangomez is a worker at center who averaged 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds last season in only 18.4 minutes per game.  He will get double the minutes and double the production this season.

Each of the last five meetings between the Knicks and Thunder have been decided by 11 points or less.  This 12.5-point spread is clearly inflated tonight given the perception of these teams coming into the season.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Lafayette +13

This Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State matchup is one of the better rivalries in the Sun Belt.  And I'm going to back the double-digit dog in this game for that reason and many more.

Arkansas State has won at least a share of the Sun Belt title for five of the last six years.  But the one team they cannot figure out is Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns have actually gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Red Wolves.  They pulled the 24-19 upset as 5-point dogs last year, preventing the Red Wolves from an outright title.  And only once in the last nine meetings has Arkansas State beaten Lafayette by more than 10 points.

I really like what I've seen from this Lafayette team since switching to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games, beating Idaho 21-16 as 6-point road dogs, and Texas State 24-7 as 14-point home favorites.  As you can see, their defense has played much better the last two weeks as well.

Nunez is completing 64.8% of his passes for 732 yards and a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has four reliable targets who have all caught at least 17 balls this year, and three of them are averaging at least 13.6 yards per reception.  Nunez is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  And Trey Ragas has held down the fort in the backfield, rushing for 528 yards and seven scores on 6.4 per carry.

I believe Arkansas State comes in way overvalued off back-to-back wins blowout wins over two of the worst teams in college football, and both were very misleading finals.  They beat Georgia Southern 43-25 on the road despite getting outgained by 112 yards and giving up 493 total yards.  Then last week they beat Coastal Carolina 51-17 at home, but only outgained them by 37 yards.  Their other win came against FCS Arkansas Pine-Bluff for their 3-2 record.

Lafayette is in a huge scheduling advantage here.  The Rajin' Cajuns played last Thursday against Texas State, while the Red Wolves played on Saturday against Coastal Carolina.  That means Lafayette will have a full week to prepare, two more days than Lafayette, which will have had only four days to prepare.  I do not believe oddsmakers are factoring in this situation in the inflated number.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a blowout home win by 28 or more points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams who complete 62% or more of their passes.  Take Lafayette Thursday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017 season undervalued as many picked them to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference.  And while last year was a growing year for their young team, they plan on having a lot more structure this season and taking major strides.

They even rested their best player Eric Bledsoe for the final 16 games last season to try and preserve his knee.  Now they enter 2017 fully healthy and ready to make some progress.  I love the backcourt of Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.  Marquese Chriss and TJ Warren continue to improve, and rookie Josh Jackson will bring some much-needed defense to this lineup.  Tyson Chandler remains an eraser and leader inside.

I think the Blazers come into 2017 a bit overvalued due to the way they finished last season.  One key here is that CJ McCollum is going to miss this game due to a suspension from the preseason.  McCollum averaged 23 points per game last season and is one of the most underrated guards in the NBA.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They were one of the hottest teams over the second half last season and barely missed the playoffs.  Their roster is loaded, and it got even better in the offseason.

One key addition came in the form of Paul Millsap. The All-Star forward left the Atlanta Hawks to sign with Denver in free agency. Paired alongside center Nikola Jokic, Millsap promises to give the Nuggets some extra juice on both offense and defense in the frontcourt.

Millsap put up a career-best average of 18.1 points and also collected 7.7 rebounds for the Hawks a season ago. He agreed to a three-year, $90 million deal with Denver over the summer, and he gives the Nuggets a veteran leader who should mesh well with a talented, young core.

Millsap's presence will only make Jokic more dangerous and even tougher to defend. Over Denver's final 28 games last season, Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 12 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

The Utah Jazz are a team I'm not very high on this season.  Losing George Hill and Gordon Hayward will be too much for this team to overcome.  Now a starting lineup that features Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio will not be nearly as dangerous in 2017.  I think Gobert is a great young player, but the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired.

Denver is 44-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7

The Philadelphia 76ers are a team on the rise this season.  They now have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We will back them every chance we get as long as they're healthy.

The 76ers also boast the No. 1 overall pick in Markelle Fultz.  They made a great move to get J.J. Redick this season for a sniper from 3-point range.  And both forwards Dario Saric and Robert Covington are two of the more underrated players in the league.

Many expect the Wizards to be one of the contenders in the East.  And while their starting lineup is certainly capable of that label, they have one of the worst depth situations in the NBA.  And now Markieff Morris is going to miss time with a groin injury.

Philadelphia is 49-30 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Astros/Yankees ALCS Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on New York +100

The New York Yankees are on Cloud 9 right now.  They have once again dug themselves out from an 0-2 deficit and are tied 2-2.  And the way they won last night, erasing a 4-0 deficit to win 6-4, has them feeling like they can't lose.  Conversely, the Astros really have to be questioning their character right now.

Masahiro Tanaka is dealing right now.  He is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up just 2 earned runs in 20 innings while striking out a whopping 25 batters.  Tanaka pitched well enough to win Game 1 in Houston, giving up just 2 runs and 5 base runners in 6 innings.

Dallas Keuchel has been much better at home than on the road,  He has posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 12 road starts this season, so he has been vulnerable.  He has given up 11 of his 15 homers on the road this season over those 12 starts as well.

Tanaka is 24-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  The Astros are 1-5 in their last six playoff road games.  The Yankees are 39-16 in Tanaka's last 55 home starts.  New York is 21-7 in its last 28 home games.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors 2017 NBA Season Opener on Houston +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs mopped the floor with the Golden State Warriors by 40 points in the opener last season.  The Warriors come in overvalued once again this season after winning the title last year.  They are now 9.5-point favorites against the Rockets.

Opening night is certainly a distraction for teams who are coming off a title.  They get their banner hung and receive their rings.  It makes them reflect on last season, and not focus on the present.  Meanwhile, it motivates the opponent.  And that opponent this time around is one that will push the Warriors this season.

Indeed, the Rockets are the second-best team in the NBA this season in my opinion.  They were already the second-best team in the West last year, then they traded for Chris Paul, making an already potent lineup almost unstoppable.  This is the perfect fit for Paul because he doesn't have to have the ball in his hands 100% of the time like he did with the Clippers.  And he's a great spot up shooter. 

Defending BOTH Paul and Harden in the pick and roll will give opposing defenses headaches all season.  And the shooters around these two are tremendous with Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.  Plus they have both Clint Capela and Nene Hilario to do the dirty work inside.  I really like this team a lot, and I think you'll see why in Game 1 tonight.

Mike D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets won 132-127 as 11-point dogs and only lost 98-107 as 8.5-point dogs in their two trips to Golden State last season.  They will have a shot to win this game in the closing seconds as well.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -113

Favorites are now 20-4 in the postseason.  The home teams have just been crushing it.  And with the season on the line for the Cubs tonight, I think they get the job done here in Game 3 and make a series out of this.

The Cubs were overmatched in the mound in the first two games against Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill.  That won't be the case tonight with Kyle Hendricks.  He is 8-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Hendricks is also 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in five career starts against Los Angeles.

Yu Darvish is 11-12 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  There's no question he has been better down the stretch of the season, but that's also the reason the Cubs are such a small favorite here and showing such great value.

Plays on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts are 35-6 (85.4%, +26.9 units) over the last five seasons.

The Dodgers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 NLCS road games.  Chicago is 31-12 in its last 43 games following a loss.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks' last five starts.  Take the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Astros/Yankees ALCS Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on New York -125

The New York Yankees are starting to thrive in this spot.  After falling down 0-2 to the Indians, they won three straight to advance to the ALCS.  After falling down 0-2 to the Astros, the Yankees showed their grit with an 8-1 victory last night.  They have now outscored the Astros 10-5 in this series.

And the Yankees have the clear edge on the mound tonight with Sonny Gray.  Gray has gone 10-13 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  He is 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in nine career starts against the Astros as well.

Lance McCullers will be making his first start since September 30th.  It was not a good one as he gave up 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Red Sox.  McCullers is 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 22 starts this season, but 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 13 road starts.  His home/away splits have been drastic early on in his career.

The Astros are 1-7 in McCullers' last eight starts, including 1-4 in his last five road starts.  The Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 home games, and 4-0 in their last four playoff home games.  Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.

20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5

This is a key AFC South game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.  They are both 2-3 right now, and the winner will be tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South.  So there will be an extra level of intensity to this contest.

I think that favors the UNDER, along with many other factors.  These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another since it's a division game.  And I know that previous meetings have tended to be higher scoring, but those were almost exclusively with Andrew Luck in recent years.  Luck is no longer the quarterback due to injury.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett and a sub-par Colts offense that has been dreadful on the road this season.  The Colts are scoring just 13.5 points per game, averaging 231 yards per game and 4.7 per play on the road this season.  I don't expect them to have much success moving the football and scoring points in this game either.

That's because the Colts will be up against a Titans defense that came back strong last week to give up just 16 points and 178 total yards to the Miami Dolphins.  Usually that would have been good enough to win, but the offense was held to just 10 points and 188 total yards.  That was largely due to having Matt Cassell at quarterback.

Now Marcus Mariota is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury.  I think that fact has this total inflated.  Mariota is probably coming back too early because the Titans are coming off two consecutive losses and need a win.  And there's zero chance this will be the same free-wheeling Mariota we've become accustomed to.

Instead, Mariota will be severely limited by that hamstring.  His feet are his biggest weapon, and without them this offense won't hum like it normally would.  Mariota won't be able to make plays outside the pocket like he usually does, and he certainly won't be running for many first downs to bail out the offense when plays break down.

I expect the Titans to try and get back to their bread and butter offensively, which is running the football with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  That's because they've been limited to just 77.5 rushing yards per game in their last two contests, which they have lost.  Their two best running totals this season were two games in which they won.  They know their best formula for success is to run the ball, and that will be the case here Monday.  That will also keep the clock moving.

The Colts found a nice running game last week with Marlon Mack against the San Francisco 49ers.  They rushed for 159 yards on 35 attempts, with Mack accounting for 91 of those yards.  I think they'll be looking to run the football as well to try and limit Tennessee's possessions, which is their best plan of attack.  They can't afford to fall behind big early because they don't have the firepower to come back, as we've seen in their two blowout road losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 71-33 (68.3%) over the last 10 seasons.  With the intensity both defenses will be bringing to the table, and with the limitations of Brissett and Mariota, the only way to look is with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* ALCS GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Yankees -131

The New York Yankees are in must-win mode here in Game 3 tonight at home.  The good news is that they are used to this situation already considering they lost the first two games in Cleveland last series.  They proceeded to win three straight to advance to the ALCS.

CC Sabathia has held his own in both of his starts this postseason, giving up exactly two earned runs in each of his two starts against the Indians while striking out 14 batters.  Sabathia is now 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in his last three starts.

After facing aces Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel in the first two games in a pair of 2-1 losses, the Yankees will be glad to go up against Charlie Morton tonight.  Morton is 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.  He is also 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two career starts against New York.

The Yankees are 10-2 in Sabathia's 12 starts following a loss this season.  New York is 18-6 in its last 24 games following a loss.  The Yankees are 19-7 in their last 26 home games.  New York is 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts.  Bet the Yankees in Game 3 Monday.

15* Cubs/Dodgers NLCS Game 2 No-Brainer on Chicago +147

The Chicago Cubs can't afford to fall down 0-2 in this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I look for them to get a win in Game 2 here Sunday at a very nice underdog value of +147.

Jon Lester has been a clutch performer in the postseason.  He gave up only one earned run and four base runners in 6 innings against the Nationals in his only start last series.  Lester is now 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last three starts.  He's also 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles.

Rich Hill is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers with this line.  He is 12-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  But now he's up against a Cubs lineup that has crushed left-handed pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game against southpaws.

The Cubs are 31-11 in their last 42 games following a loss.  Chicago is 35-17 in Lester's last 52 starts.  The Dodgers are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS start to the season.  They are the only team that's left unbeaten both straight up and against the spread.  With that fact comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Chiefs simply cannot live up to moving forward.

Now the Chiefs are being asked to lay a whopping 5 points at home against a Steelers team that I'm not so sure isn't still the best team in the AFC.  The Chiefs were lucky to cover against both the Eagles and Redskins in their two home games this season.  They were outgained by the Eagles by 62 yards, and they got a fluke fumble return TD on the last play of the game to cover against the Redskins.

Now this is a very tough spot for the Chiefs.  They have played back-to-back National TV games last Monday against the Redskins and then last week against the Texans.  That game turned into a 42-34 shootout thanks to some injuries on both sides.  That game took a lot out of the Chiefs, and it really showed up in the injury department.

Receiver Chris Conley was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  Fellow receiver Albert Wilson suffered a leg injury and is questionable.  Tight end Travis Kelce was knocked out of the Houston game with a concussion and is questionable.  Defensively, both LB Justin Houston and LB Dee Ford, their two best pass rushers, are questionable with calf and hip injuries.

The Steelers are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field this week and redeem themselves from their ugly 9-30 home loss to the Jaguars last week.  Big Ten threw five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away.  It was a clear flat spot for the Steelers off their big 26-9 win in Baltimore the previous week, and with the Chiefs on deck.

Now the Steelers will get back to work this week and come back with a much better performance.  I expect them to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell at least 30 times after he did not get enough touches against the Jaguars due to game flow.  They are much better when he gets the rock.  His two biggest workloads came in identical 26-9 wins over Baltimore and Minnesota.

What has been most impressive about the Steelers is their defense.  They are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.  Alex Smith won't keep humming along, especially with all the injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers simply have the Chiefs number.  They have gone 5-1 in the last six meetings over the past six seasons.  They won 18-16 on the road in the playoffs last year, and 43-14 at home earlier in the regular season, outgaining the Chiefs by a combined 241 yards in the process.  The Steelers have clearly figured out Andy Reid's offense, limiting the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game in the last six meetings.

Pitt is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46

For two teams that aren't in the same division, the Steelers and Chiefs are certainly getting used to playing each other.  They have played six times in the last six seasons, including in the playoffs last year.  The Steelers ended the Chiefs' season with an 18-16 road victory as 2.5-point favorites.

The majority of these meetings have been very low-scoring.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Steelers and Chiefs have averaged just a combined 35 points per game in those six meetings.  That's 11 points less than this 46-point total, which shows the kind of value we are getting here with the UNDER.

I think this total has been inflated due to the Chiefs having the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. And the fact that they are coming off a shootout win over the Texans last week.  But the Texans lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to injuries in the first quarter, which changed the complexion of the game.

The Chiefs came away from that game with some significant injuries of their one, which also makes me like the UNDER this week.  Receiver Chris Conley suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.  Receiver Albert Wilson is questionable with a leg injury.  Alex Smith's favorite target in Travis Kelce is questionable with a concussion that knocked him out of the Texans game.  I like the UNDER either way, but it would just be an added bonus if all three guys were out.

And now the Chiefs are up against a vastly improved Steelers defense, and their offense won't keep humming along this week.  The Steelers are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have held the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game i their last six meetings, so they clearly have Andy Reid's offense figured out.  And the Steelers haven't lived up to expectations this season offensively.  Big Ten just threw five picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away to Jacksonville last week.

I look for the Steelers to go to a more conservative game plan this week.  They will feed Le'Veon Bell upwards of 30 times in this game to take some pressure off of Big Ten.  That will also keep the clock moving and cut down on the turnovers.  It's a Steelers offense that is only averaging 19.8 points per game this year.  The Chiefs still have a respectable defense themselves, giving up 22.2 points per game this season.

The UNDER is 22-7 in Steelers last 29 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Steelers last 27 games in October.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 39-18 in Chiefs last 57 home games.  Kansas City is 7-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

The Los Angeles Rams are a legitimate NFL team this season.  I think they are flying under the radar right now as they could easily be 5-0 rather than 3-2.  They have nice road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers, as well as a blowout home win over the Colts.

The Rams did lose 20-27 at home to the Redskins in Week 2, but the Redskins are clearly better than most thought they would be.  Many are writing off the Rams because of their 16-10 loss to the Seahawks last week, but if they played that game 10 times, the Rams would have won nine of them when you dig deeper into the stats.

The Rams outgained the Seahawks by 134 yards.  They drove the ball inside the Seattle red zone five times, and only scored 3 points on those five trips.  They missed a short field goal, Todd Gurley fumbled through the end zone for a touchback, and Cooper Kupp dropped a would-be game-winning touchdown on the final drive.  The Rams were the better team, which just shows how far they've come.

The Jaguars are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  They are coming off a signature 30-9 road win at Pittsburgh in which they intercepted Big Bet five times, returning two of those for touchdowns.  Blake Bortles only attempted one pass in the second half and finished 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards with an interception in the win.  So it was nothing he did.

This Jaguars offense is too one-dimensional, depending basically solely on Leonard Fourtette to run the ball.  We saw what happened when the Jaguars fell behind in their only home game this season in Week 2 against the Titans.  Bortles had to try to throw them back in it, and he couldn't do it in a 16-37 loss.

Both teams have elite defenses, but the difference in this game is the offenses.  The Rams are far from one-dimensional as Sean McVay has brought his offense to this team, and they have taken off.  The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game, 382 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL this season.

This line indicates that the line should be about a pick 'em on a neutral field.  And I have no doubt the Rams are the better team and would unload on them as a favorite on a neutral.  Giving the Jaguars 2.5 points for home-field advantage is too much because they have actually been much better on the road than at home in recent years.  And the Jaguars have been terrible as a favorite, but great as a dog.

The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  They just can't seem to be able to put together two good games in a row.  And this is a clear 'buy low' on the Rams and 'sell high' on the Jags opportunity.  The Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Plays on underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3.5

I grabbed the New Orleans Saints at -3.5 on Monday not only because I loved them at that price, but also because I figured that the line would move quickly in their favor.  And it has as it's up to -4.5 and -5 as of this writing.  I still like them at anything under a touchdown, but obviously the -3.5 line is a stronger play. It benefits you to get a subscription so you can get in on these lines as soon as I release them, rather than buying the play the day of the game and getting worse lines.

The reason to love the Saints is the spot.  They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for the Lions.  And they needed it after playing their last game in London.  Teams playing in London get to choose whether or not they want the bye the next week, and the Saints chose wisely.

I've used the Saints as a 25* play in each of their last two games, and cashed them both easily.  I felt like they were way undervalued after two brutal games to open the season at Minnesota and at home against New England.  And that proved to be the case as they went into Carolina and won 34-13 as 5-point dogs, and won 20-0 in London over the Dolphins as 4-point favorites, covering the spread by a combined 42 points.

Now the Saints opened as -3 and -3.5 favorites at home against the Lions this week, which continues to show how undervalued they are.  I rank the Saints as a better team than the Lions, and when you factor in home-field advantage and the fact that they are coming off their bye week, this line should have come out at closer to -6.

It's clear that the Saints are improved defensively this season after allowing just 6.5 points and 237 yards per game in their last two contests.  And the team is getting healthy as a whole with very few significant injuries.  The Saints feel like the NFC South is for the taking, and they are playing with a sense of urgency right now knowing that Drew Brees doesn't have too many seasons left, though he continues to play at an extremely high level.

The Lions are complete frauds in my opinion.  They lead the NFL in turnover margin (+8), and they already have 11 takeaways this season.  That's not going to last.  The Saints have done an excellent job of taking care of the football this season, committing zero turnovers in their first four games.  They won't be giving it away to the Lions this week either.

The Lions have now trailed in 20 of their last 22 games dating back to the start of last season, and most of those they actually trailed in the fourth quarter.  The only exception this year was their game against the 0-5 New York Giants.  Matthew Stafford has been working miracles with this team, but now even Stafford is banged up with his status in question for Sunday.

Stafford suffered both ankle and hamstring injuries in a 27-24 home loss to the Panthers last week.  That was another game they trailed 27-10 and was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And even if Stafford goes, he will be hobbled.  He would also be starting behind a banged-up, terrible offensive line that has allowed a whopping 12 sacks over the last two weeks combined.

On Monday, Stafford told WJR Radio in Detroit that he doesn't know if he'll play due to the the ankle/leg injuries.  And he's not the only injury concern.  Breakout WR Kenny Golladay suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable. DT Haloti Ngata has been placed on injured reserve with an elbow injury suffered last week, and LB Paul Worrilow remains out indefinitely.

And the final handicap in this game is the revenge factor.  The Saints are actually 0-3 against the Lions the last three seasons, including an embarrassing 28-13 home loss to them last year.  The Saints had won their previous four games against the Lions by an average of 21.0 points per game.  I think we see them getting back to that kind of form here and winning in blowout fashion.

Sean Payton is 15-4 ATS in home games vs. mistake-prone teams averaging 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off a home loss by 3 points or less.  The Lions are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good rushing defenses allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years.

Bets against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +10

The Houston Texans are the flavor of the month right now because of Deshaun Watson becoming the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to account for five touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.  And now the Texans are being asked to lay double-digits, something they certainly aren't used to doing at any point in franchise history.

The problem is that the injuries to the Texans defense are getting overlooked.  They lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in the first quarter against the Chiefs last week, and proceeded to give up a whopping 42 points.  Fellow starters Brian Cushing and Kevin Johnson are also out.

The Browns are much better than their 0-5 record would indicate.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 16 yards per game this season.  They are only getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  The Texans are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play this season, so by those numbers alone, these are closer to even teams than this line would suggest.

The problem for the Browns has been turnovers, and mostly from Deshon Kizer.  They have committed a whopping 12 turnovers already and are -6 in turnover margin.  Well, they have decided to move on from Kizer to Kevin Hogan, who has taken much better care of the football and understands the importance of it dating back to his time at Stanford, where he had similar numbers to Andrew Luck.

Last week against the Jets, the Browns lost 14-17 but the stats show they should have won by a big margin.  The Browns outgained the Jets by a whopping 207 yards in that game.  Hogan was on point, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns with one interception after replacing Kizer.  He nearly led them back to a victory from a 17-7 deficit.  I certainly think this team offense is better with Hogan, if for nothing else the fact that he values the football.

The Browns have actually been very good defensively this season.  They are giving up just 305 total yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's key here because they're up against a Texans team that likes to run the ball, averaging 31 attempts for 141 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Winless teams who are 0-5 or worse are 50-18 ATS when facing an opponent in non-division road games.  That angle improves to 39-7 ATS when the 0-5 team has a spread winning percentage of 33% or worse.  The Browns get two of their best players back from injury this week in LB Jamie Collins and WR Kenny Britt as well.    I like Cleveland much better in this role where it is getting double-digit points, rather than the role it has been in the last three weeks where it basically had to win outright to cover.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +13

I was way down on Western Michigan coming into the season and I've seen nothing to change my mind thus far.  The Broncos are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS.  Their only two victories by double-digits came at home against terrible Wagner and Ball State teams.

Western Michigan only beat Idaho 37-28 as 17-point home favorites.  Then last week they needed a whopping seven overtimes to beat Buffalo 71-68 on the road as 7-point favorites.  That's the key here is that the Broncos are going to be fatigued and won't have much left in the tank after playing seven overtimes.  They can't be laying two touchdowns to Akron here.

This is an Akron team that I believed to be one of the better squads in the MAC coming into the season.  And after a brutal non-conference schedule that featured losses to Penn State and Iowa State, the Zips have fared much better against similar competition.

They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff 52-3.  They went on the road and only lost 17-22 as 17-point dogs at Troy, which is a Troy team that upset LSU on the road.  They won 34-23 as 3-point favorites at Bowling Green, and then crushed Ball State 31-3 as 4-point favorites last week.  They have now covered three in a row, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here.

Akron is one of the few MAC teams that plays solid defense.  The Zips are only giving up 24.0 points per game this season.  The Broncos have been sub-par defensively, giving up 31.7 points and 5.8 yards per play.  And the Broncos haven't been good as their offensive numbers would suggest.  They are averaging 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  This is just a mediocre MAC team that isn't nearly as good with the losses of PJ Fleck and all of their best playmakers on offense.

Western Michigan is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of the last six games.  Terry Bowden is 9-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Akron.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I just think WMU is still getting too much respect for what it did last season.  Roll with Akron Sunday.

15* Washington/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +17.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week after a brutal stretch to start the season.  They played two improved Group of 5 teams in New Mexico State and San Diego State, an improved Texas Tech team on the road, and then Pac-12 powers Oregon and Stanford.  They needed a bye week.

It's clear that this team has been improving.  Only losing by 7 at Texas Tech is no shame, and ASU came back to upset Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  Keep in mind that was a healthy Oregon team, not the one that we've seen so banged up the last few weeks.  And a 24-34 loss as 17-point road dogs at Stanford was a quality performance heading into their bye.

Washington is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #5 national ranking.  The schedule couldn't have been any easier for the Huskies up to this point.  They have faced Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and California.  Those are three of the worst teams in the Pac-12, an FCS opponent, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and a mediocre Mountain West squad.  To compare, ASU has faced four teams that are better than any team Washington has played.

Now the Huskies are being asked to lay a whopping 17.5 points on the road against an ASU team that has been very good at home in Pac-12 play.  The Sun Devils are 21-11 straight up in their last 32 Pac-12 home games.  And Arizona State hasn't been this big of a home underdog since 1996.

it is almost shocking how one-sided this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, Arizona State is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Washington.  Granted, most of those were before Chris Petersen arrived, but it's noteworthy nonetheless.

Arizona State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Todd Graham is 17-6 ATS as a home dog in all games he has coached.  The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7

The Auburn Tigers are way overvalued right now.  They have won four straight by 14 points or more coming in.  Their least impressive was a 24-10 home win over Mercer as a 41-point favorite, but then they beat Missouri 51-14 on the road, Mississippi State 49-10 at home and Ole Miss 44-23 at home.

Sure, they took care of business, but who have they really beaten so far?  Missouri is awful, Mississippi State was tired after facing LSU and Georgia the previous two weeks, and Ole Miss was coming off a 66-3 loss to Alabama.  The only good team they've faced that wasn't in a bad spot was Clemson, and they lost 6-14 while getting held to 117 total yards.

So it's time to 'sell high' on Auburn, while we 'buy low' on LSU.  LSU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Nobody wants to back this team right now after they were upset 21-24 by Troy.  But I jumped on them last week as 3.5-point road dogs at Florida, and a lot of big money was on them as well because they ended up -2 favorites.  LSU showed some great fight in a 17-16 road victory.

I think LSU will continue to fight for Ed Orgeron this week now.  This is a huge game against a Top 10 opponent, and Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  And just to show you how the perception on these teams has changed since the beginning of the season, the Game of the Year line on this game was LSU -7.  So this line has swung 14 points in Auburn's favor.  I agree it should have swung some, but this line should be closer to a pick 'em.  I think LSU is showing tremendous value as a touchdown home dog now.

LSU is 45-7 straight up at home since 2010.  Only two of those seven losses have come by more than a touchdown.  That makes for a 50-2 system backing LSU based on their home record since 2010 and factoring in this 7-point point spread.  You're not going to find a better value in the SEC the rest of the season.

Plays on home teams (LSU) - after four or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take LSU Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -3

I was in utter shock when I saw this line move from the opener of West Virginia -7 down to -3 early in the week.  The value on the Mountaineers -3 is too good to pass up.  I just think that these early bettors are dead wrong about Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders aren't nearly as good as they're getting credit for.

They just moved into the Top 25 at #24 this week.  We've seen this story before when a team not used to being in the Top 25 falls flat the week after getting ranked.  I can certainly see that being the case here.

The Red Raiders are getting too much credit for their 7-point home loss to Oklahoma State.  That was one of the more misleading finals of the year.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Oklahoma State had 13 drives, 12 of which went inside the Texas Tech 20-yard line.  Five of them wound up in chip shot field goals, and they missed two.  Another was a 97-yard pick-6 for a TD by the Red Raiders.  So that only being a 7-point game was a fluke.

Texas Tech hasn't beaten anyone of any relevance with narrow wins over Houston and Arizona State, and blowout wins over Eastern Washington and Kansas.  The Red Raiders have forced 14 turnovers already this season after forcing only 13 all of late year.  They can't keep up this pace.  12 of those turnovers came against FCS Eastern Washington, Kansas and a Houston team that was in the midst of a QB controversy.

I've been extremely impressed by West Virginia this year.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents.  They really should be 5-0, but the fact that they are just 3-2 has them flying under the radar.  They outgained VA Tech by 123 yards in a 24-31 loss.  Then last week in their most impressive performance, they outgained No. 6 TCU by 102 yards on the road in another 7-point loss.

The Mountaineers racked up 592 yards in Virginia Tech and another 508 on TCU, which are two of the better defenses in the country.  Florida transfer Will Grier has been lighting it up with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  He has two receivers in Gary Jennings and David Stills who are on pace for 1,000-yard receiving seasons.  RB Justin Crawford is on pace for 1,000 rushing yards while averaging 7.0 per carry.  This offense is loaded, and the defense has been better than expected.

Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 at home over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year, and that was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.  And they lost to then-No. 21 Oklahoma State in overtime back in 2015.

The Mountaineers have won the last two meetings, including a 48-17 blowout as 3-point road favorites last year.  I think they win in blowout fashion at home in Morgantown once again this time around.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -2.5

Butch Jones was able to keep his job through the bye week despite a 41-0 home loss to Georgia last time out. Look for these players to rally around Jones and for this to be a 'win one for the gipper' type of performance.  Having two weeks to correct things should have Tennessee coming out and playing its best game of the season Saturday at home against South Carolina.

The bye week also gave Jones the perfect opportunity to make the switch at quarterback.  He'll be going with freshman Jarrett Guarantano this week and benching junior Quenten Dromandy, who simply wasn't getting it done.  Guarantano was the 9th-best QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, including the No. 1 dual-threat QB. He is more in the Joshua Dobbs mold of years' past.

"Jarrett's a good story because he's just unselfish," fifth-year senior wide receiver Josh Smith said. "You have a guy that, they're both competing, and you give the job to another guy, but he keeps competing. And that just shows his character. I think highly of him and I think he's growing and I think he's just going to keep getting better and better."

South Carolina may be the most fraudulent 4-2 team in the country.  The Gaoecocks are getting outgained by 55 yards per game on the season.  They were outgained by 258 yards despite beating NC State.  They were outgained by 64 yards at Missouri, which is a terrible Missouri team.  They lost 13-23 at home to Kentucky, barely beat LA Tech 17-16 at home, and their 48-22 win over Arkansas last week has them way overvalued.  The Gamecocks had three defensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 28 yards.

Tennessee is 10-2 SU in its last 12 home meetings with South Carolina, winning by an average of 12 points per game.  The Vols are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 games following two more more consecutive ATS losses.  The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Washington State/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +14

The Washington State Cougars are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start while being ranked No. 8 in the country.  But they couldn't have played an easier schedule up to this point, and they have caught some unbelievable breaks along the way, which we'll get to.

For starters, Washington State opened with five straight home games.  They beat Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada in non-conference.  And they were trailing by 21 at home to Boise State before starting QB Brett Rypien got hurt, and they had a miraculous comeback to win 47-44 against a Boise team that simply isn't very good this year.

Their first Pac-12 game came at home against USC on a Friday night in front of a rowdy home crowd.  They were trailing in that game 17-10, and then all of a sudden USC lost three starting offensive linemen to injury, and the Trojans only managed 10 points over the final 40 minutes of the game as Sam Darnold was under duress behind that shaky O-Line.

The breaks continue last week for the Cougars as they faced an Oregon team with a third-string quarterback and several other key injuries.  They took advantage and won as they should have 33-10 on the road as 1-point favorites.  Now I think they are getting way too much respect here as 14-point road favorites at California.

The Golden Bears have had to play the much tougher schedule.  They opened 3-0 in the non-conference beating UNC on the road, and Weber State and Ole Miss at home despite being dogs in two of those games.  Then they played a great game against a healthy USC team, but lost 20-30 as 17-point home dogs despite committing six turnovers in that game.

Then they played a healthy Oregon team on the road and lost 24-45 as 17-point dogs before falling 7-38 on the road as 29-point dogs at Washington last week.  Those may have been the three best teams in the Pac-12 at the time they faced them, and now after two non-covers in a row, I think the Golden Bears come into this game undervalued.

Justin Wilcox, the former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, was one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  Turning around a Cal defense that gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game last season was going to be no easy task, and it's remarkable what he's been able to do on that side of the ball already in his first season.

This is a Cal defense that is only giving up 5.5 yards per play against team that average 6.4 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.9 yards per play below their season average.  To compare, Cal allowed 6.7 yards per play last season.  Washington State's numbers are skewed on both sides of the ball because of the lack of competition and the scheduling breaks thus far.

Cal has won 10 of its last 12 meetings with Washington State straight up.  Washington State has only been a double-digit road favorite six times in the last 25 years!  Mike Leach is 4-14 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Leach is 3-14 ATS in his last 17 road games off three or more consecutive wins.  Take California Friday.

15* Yankees/Astos AL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 8

I think we see some runs tonight between the Yankees and Astros.  The last series with the Red Sox saw Houston and Boston score at least 9 combined runs in all four games.  The Astros could cover this 8-run total on their own.

Masahiro Tanaka has been brutal on the road this year, going 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Tanaka has never beaten the Astros, going 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Dallas Keuchel has been much more vulnerable than normal here down the stretch.  He has given up at least one home run in in nine of his last 13 starts.  And the Yankees are swinging a hot bat right now in scoring five or more runs in four of their last six games.

The OVER is 5-0 in Tanaka's last five road starts.  The OVER is 5-1 in Astros last six playoff games.  The OVER is 11-3 in Astros last 14 following an off day.  The OVER is 19-6-1 in Astros last 26 vs. AL East foes.  The OVER is 4-1 in Keuchel's last five starts.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Clemson/Syracuse ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +22.5

We're starting to see the Clemson Tigers having to lay some inflated prices here of late because of all of the love they are getting from the public.  They have gone just 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall, and now they are overvalued once again as 22.5-point road favorites at Syracuse Friday night.

They beat Boston College 34-7 as 33-point favorites three weeks ago.  But that was a 7-7 game entering the 4th quarter.  They won and covered at VA Tech 31-17 as 7-point road favorites two weeks ago, but that was a misleading final as the Tigers were held to 332 total yards and outgained by 10 yards by the Hokies, but won the turnover battle 3-0.  Then last week they only won 28-14 at Wake Forest as 21-point favorites.

This is an upstart Syracuse team that is on the rise in the second season under Dino Babers.  They returned a whopping 19 starters this season and are clearly improved.  They have been competitive in every game, and their performances against the top teams they've faced show that they can hang with Clemson, especially in a nationally televised home game inside what will be a rowdy Carrier Dome Friday night.

Syracuse only lost 26-35 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 30 yards in that game.  More impressive may have been their 25-33 loss at NC State as 14-point dogs as they were only outgained by 18 yards in that game.  That's an NC State team that is among the best in the ACC this year, and that was on the road.

I think a big reason this line is so big is because Clemson won 54-0 at home over Syracuse last year.  I remember that game quite well because I was on Syracuse.  And when starting QB Eric Dungy was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, I knew I was in trouble.  Dungey means everything to this team.  He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,802 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 325 yards and eight scores.  They would be in trouble without him.

Now it's time for Dungey and Syracuse to redeem themselves.  They will be talking about that 54-0 loss all week leading up to this game.  They will be desperate to show that they are a much better team than what they showed last year.  And playing at home will help.  After all, Syracuse only lost 27-37 as 30-point home dogs to a very good Clemson team the season prior in 2015.

It's worth nothing that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury against Wake Forest last week.  He is probable to start, but he won't be at 100% if he does, and his mobility is his biggest weapon.  "He'll be day-to-day, and we'll see how he progresses through the week," Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said. "If he's ready to play, he'll go play. If he's not, we'll play the next guy."

Clemson is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following three straight conference wins.  Syracuse is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Friday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NLDS Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago -106

Dusty Baker got lucky that Game 4 was postponed Tuesday, giving Stephen Strasburg an extra day of rest so that he could start Game 4 yesterday.  But now he's making a mistake starting Gio Gonzalez in Game 5.  The Cubs feast on left-handed pitching.

Gonzalez was rocked for 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings against the Cubs in Game 2.  The Cubs are hitting .272 and scoring 5.4 runs per game against left-handed starters in 2017.  Gonzalez is 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in his last three starts.  Look for them to knock Gonzalez out early in this one.

Kyle Hendricks has become the ace of the Cubs.  Hendricks allowed just two hits and truck out six over seven innings in Game 1.  He is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against Washington this season, and 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in six career starts against the Nationals.  Hendricks is also 2-0 with a 0.70 ERA in his last four starts overall, giving up just 2 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings.

The Cubs are 70-35 (+26.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 6-1 in Hendricks' last seven starts vs. NL East teams.  Washington is 5-13 in Gonzalez's last 18 starts vs. NL Central foes.  Roll with the Cubs Thursday.

20* Texas State/UL Lafayette CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on OVER 56

We have a battle between two of the worst defenses in the country here in UL Lafayette and Texas State.  I believe the oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game, and the OVER 56 is a very nice bet here in Sun Belt action Thursday night.

The UL Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been in high-scoring games all season, other than last week against Idaho, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Lafayette is 4-1 to the OVER.  It is scoring 37.0 points per game this season, while giving up a whopping 46.2 points per game.  Thats an average of 83 combined points per game, which is 27 points more than this posted total of 56.

Texas State is giving up 33.7 points per game overall with a terrible defense.  The offense has not been good for the Bobcats, averaging just 14.5 points per game.  That's a combined 52 points per game, which is only 4 points less than this posted total of 56.  And I think the Bobcats will certainly get right offensively against this horrid Lafayette defense.

The Bobcats have gone OVER the total in each of their last three games.  They allowed 44 points to UTSA, 45 to Wyoming and 45 to LA Monroe.  This Louisiana offense should post a huge number and cover most of this OVER on their own, especially since they've made to the switch to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  Numez is completing 65.6% of his passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns with one INT while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.  The previous starter Jordan Davis was only completing 58.9% and averaging 6.3 per attempt.

The last two meetings at Lafayette have been extremely high-scoring.  Lafayette won 49-27 in 2015 for 76 combined points, and 48-24 in 2013 for 72 combined points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are averaging 50.5 points per game at home this season and giving up 52.0 points per game.  The Bobcats are allowing 41.0 points point game on the road.

Lafayette is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games off an upset win as a road dog.  Lafayette is 35-13 OVER in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  Texas State is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 road games versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt No-Brainer on South Alabama +17

The Troy Trojans are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in program history, winning 24-21 outright at LSU as 20.5-point road underdogs last time out.  Now they've been getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they won't have their best effort as they'll feel like they can just show up and win.

We saw a similar situation last year in which Troy was coming off a huge win over Appalachian State.  They moved into the Top 25 after that win, then promptly lost at home to Arkansas State 3-35 as 8-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 40 points.  The Trojans cannot be laying this kind of price given the terrible spot they are in mentally.

The South Alabama Jaguars have played a brutal schedule as they opened with Ole Miss and Oklahoma State.  They got right in a 45-0 win over Alabama A&M the next week, then lost in overtime to Idaho before falling 16-34 at LA Tech.  But that was a 17-16 game against LA Tech in the fourth quarter and a misleading final.

South Alabama gets some good news this week as starting QB Cole Garvin will be in the lineup.  He has missed 2.5 games due to injury, and that has been a big reason for their early struggles, along with the tough schedule.  I look for a big effort from the Jaguars here against their in-state rivals.

Troy has been overvalued all season up until that LSU game, going 1-4 ATS in its five games.  It only won 27-24 at New Mexico State as 9-point favorites, and 22-17 at home over Akron as 17-point favorites.  Those two results right there show that the Trojans can't be laying these big numbers.

This has become a bigger rivalry than most know, and I love big dogs in rivalry games.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Alabama only lost 34-33 at Troy in 2013 as 3.5-point dogs, won 27-13 at home in 2014 as 16-point favorites, won 24-18 at Troy as 6-point dogs in 2014, and covered as 9.5-point home dogs last year in a 21-28 loss.   As you can see, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, and three of those 7 points or fewer.

Plays on road teams (S ALABAMA) - after having lost three out of their last four games, in the first half of the season are 84-46 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games in the first half of the season.  Troy is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Troy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet South Alabama Wednesday.

25* MLB Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Diamondbacks +102

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers today.  So much so that they've earned my MLB Divisional Round Game of the Year status.  Look for them to extend this series with a Game 3 victory.

The key here is that the Diamondbacks will be starting Zack Greinke, who simply does not lose at home.  Greinke is 13-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 19 home starts this season.  He has gone 4-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 11 career starts against the Dodgers, including 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last two starts against them.

Yu Darvish finished the regular season strong, but his final three starts came against San Diego, Philadelphia and San Francisco.  He is 10-12 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts this year.  Now he's up against a different animal in this potent Diamondbacks lineup.

Greinke is 16-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.  The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.  The Dodgers are 0-6 in road games off four straight wins against division rivals over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 7-3 in its last 10 home meetings with Los Angeles.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bears have decided to start their No. 2 overall pick in Mitchell Trubisky against the Minnesota Vikings this week.  It was perfect timing because the Bears played last Thursday, giving Trubisky a full week and a half of prep time to get ready for the Vikings on Monday.

Teams coming off a Thursday game are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  The Chiefs & Patriots both covered in Week 2, the Texans & Bengals both covered in Week 3, and the Rams and 49ers both covered in Week 4.  That extra rest is huge in the NFL, and I look for a big performance from the Bears Monday thanks to it.

The Bears have played two monster home games this season and really should be 2-0.  If not for a couple drops at the end, they would have beaten the Falcons in Week 1.  Instead they lost 17-23 as 6.5-point dogs.  Then they won outright as 7-point dogs in a 23-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.  The Falcons and Steelers are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Mike Glennon has killed the Bears with all of his turnovers.  The Bears have given the ball away a league-most 10 times and are -7 in turnover differential this season.  That's why the switch to Trubisky was warranted, and he lit it up in the preseason and clearly has the higher upside.

The Bears lost 14-35 at Green Bay last Thursday, but that final was misleading and has them undervalued here.  They gave the game away with four turnovers and many short fields for the Packers.  Their defense played well, limiting the Packers to just 260 total yards.  This is an underrated Bears stop unit that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total defense.

The Vikings lost their best playmaker in Dalvin Cook to a season-ending ACL injury last week.  He had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus games.  Now it's Latavius Murray and his bum ankle that's supposed to replace him.  Well, Murray will be making his season debut and clearly isn't 100%.

"To be honest, I think I'm still getting to that point," said Murray, 27, who spent the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. "It's not going to quite feel the same for awhile. I knew that dealing with my previous ankle procedure. For me, it's being well enough to be out there and being able to help the team be successful. I feel good enough to be out there, and I'm confident in myself that I can play at a high level."

The Vikings have been without Sam Bradford for the past three games because of a knee injury, and he is still questionable to play Monday night.  Even if he does go, he won't be 100% and will be nursing that knee injury.  And if backup Case Keenum starts again it will be a bonus for us.  But either way, the Vikings shouldn't be favored by a field goal on the road here.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bears are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Vikings.  They won 20-10 at home last season as 5.5-point dogs on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Chicago.  The home team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Indians/Yankees ALDS Game 3 No-Brainer on OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this Game 3 showdown between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians.  Both teams went through their bullpens in their 13-inning marathon in Game 2, a 9-8 Indians win.

Masahiro Tanaka has been shaky all season.  He is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA in 30 starts this season.  Tanaka is also 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland.  The OVER is 3-1 in those four games.

Carlos Carrasco has had a very good season for the Indians, but he hasn't fared well against the Yankees.  Carrasco is 3-5 with a 4.44 ERA in nine career starts against them.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against New York this season.  The OVER is 6-3 in his nine starts against them.

New York is 13-3 OVER when playing against a team with a 62% winning percentage or better this season.  Carrasco is 9-1 OVER after giving up one or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 10-0 in Carracso's last 10 starts when working on 9 or more days' rest.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Sunday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys are going to be pissed off from their home loss to the Rams last week.  That was a tough spot for them as they were coming off a Monday night game, while the Rams were coming off a Thursday game.  I was on the Rams last week because of the spot.

This week I'm hopping on the motivated Cowboys, who will be out for revenge after losing to the Packers 31-34 at home in the playoffs last year.  That came after they had beaten the Packers 30-16 in the regular season on the road.  The Cowboys outgained the Packers in both meetings and were clearly the better team.  I think that's the case again in 2017.

The Packers come in overvalued off their 35-14 win over the Bears last week.  But that score couldn't have been more misleading.  The Bears gave the game away by committing four turnovers.  They actually held the Packers to just 260 total yards in that game.  And the week before, the Packers never led the Bengals until overtime in a 27-24 victory as 7-point home favorites.

This is a Packers offense that is in a world of hurt right no due to all the injuries.  They have been playing without their two starting tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, and it's questionable whether they'll return this week.  And two key playmakers in RB Ty Montgomery and WR Davante Adams got hurt against Chicago, and both are expected to miss this game.

The Cowboys have been fortunate in the health department.  They have no key injuries on offense.  All of their injuries have been on defense, and for the most part they are healthy.  Sean Lee missed last week with a hamstring injury and there's a chance he could return this week.  Anthony Hitchens, Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are all questionable as well.  But they get back DL David Irving from suspension, and he's an impact player up front.

The Packers are actually below .500 on the road since 2011.  They are 3-13 on the road against playoff teams since 2011.  And the Cowboys are likely to be a playoff team this season.  The Packers were overmatched in their only road game this season, losing 23-34 at Atlanta.  That was a 34-10 game entering the fourth quarter before Green Bay tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time.

Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run this season, giving up 111 rushing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a ground attack as good as the Cowboys.  Dallas is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  They will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football in this one, which will be the key to their victory.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off two or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Rams still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers and the betting public.  Most believe that their 3-1 start is a fluke, but I'm a buyer on this team, and I certainly think they are better than the Seahawks right now.  That's why we'll pull the trigger on the Rams as only 1-point favorites against the Seahawks here.

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the season.  Jared Goff is averaging a whopping 9 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.5% of his passes.  Sean McVay is working wonders with Goff right now as one of the best offensive minds in the game.

The Seahawks keep getting treated like they are Super Bowl contenders from the betting public and oddsmakers.  As a result, they've gone just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, consistently being overvalued this year.  And they looked terrible for a half against the Colts, actually trailing 10-15 going into halftime.  I don't think one good half against an awful Colts team changes my opinion on this team as they ended up cruising to a 46-18 victory.

The Rams are extremely healthy right now, which is about the only thing that has been lucky with this team thus far.  The same cannot be said for the Seahawks.  Seattle had mass injuries in the win over the Colts.  They lost another starting lineman in Rees Odhiambo.  CB Jeremy Lane and DE Cliff Avril were both knocked out, as was RB Chris Carson.  Both Carson and Avril will be out for this game, while Lane, Odhiambo and CB Neiko Thorpe are all questionable for this contest.

The Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent meetings.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The key to their success has been their dominant defensive line up against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  It will be more of the same here as the Rams will win the battle in the trenches, and it will take a Russell Wilson miracle to overcome all of their offensive line woes.  He hasn't been able to in recent meetings with Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games off a blowout home win by 21 points or more.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  Look for a rejuvenated Rams' fan base to come out in bunches for this key divisional game.

Plays on favorites (LA RAMS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Rams Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals felt like they should have beaten the Packers in Week 3.  They led the entire way until overtime, and lost 24-27 as 7-point road dogs at Lambeau Field.  They dropped to 0-3 and easily could have quit on their season.

Instead, they showed a ton of fight in a 31-7 win at Cleveland as 3.5-point favorites, playing their best game of the season.  Andy Dalton has shown a ton of resiliency after a disastrous start to the season.  He has completed 46-of-57 passes (80.7%) for 498 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games.

At 1-3 on the season, the Bengals feel like they still have their backs against the wall.  They cannot afford to take any games off moving forward.  They need this win here at home against the Bills.  And they won't be looking ahead to their game against the Steelers because they get a bye next week.  They will be 100% focused on beating the Bills here. 

This team now has the belief, especially with their motivational leader in Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension last week.  It's no coincidence that the defense came through with their best effort last week, limiting the Browns to just 7 points and 215 total yards.  This is a defense that is now giving up just 16.7 points, 273 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.

The offense came to life the last two weeks as well, and that should continue moving forward with all of the talent they have on this side of the ball.  They still boast A.J. Green and the three-headed monster at running back in Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.  And Dalton has clearly found a way to get his weapons the ball with efficiency the last two weeks.

The Buffalo Bills are feeling fat and happy right now after their surprising 3-1 start.  After beating the Broncos at home, the Bills got a huge break last week when both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were knocked out of the game with injuries.  Clearly, the Falcons are just an average team without those two.  And the Bills took advantage and pulled the 23-17 road upset as 8-point dogs.  Now, this is a clear letdown spot for Buffalo.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively as the Bills also have a very good D.  But there's no question the Bengals have the better offense.  The Bills are averaging just 18.2 points, 284 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play offensively. They are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 171 passing yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor has done a good job of keeping the Bills in games by not turning the ball over.  In fact, the Bills have committed just one turnover all season, compared to eight for Cincinnati.  There is going to be some regression to the mean here as the Bills are +6 in turnover differential, while the Bengals are -5. 

And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play.  The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.

Cincinnati is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after leading the previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good defensive teams that allow 4.75 or fewer yards per play this season.

Plays on favorites (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Stanford/Utah Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are coming off a bye week having last played on Friday, September 22nd in a gutsy 30-24 road win to improve to 4-0 on the season.  They lost starting QB Tyler Huntley in the first half of that game, yet still found a way to win.  Now they'll be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this showdown with Stanford.

It helps that the Utes have a veteran backup in Troy Williams, who started all 13 games for them last year while leading the Utes to a 9-4 campaign.  He is one of the best backups in the country and isn't a very big downgrade at all from Huntley.  I think oddsmakers are adjusting way too much here for the Huntley injury.

Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City is one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It feels like the fans are right on top of you because they are so close to the field.  The Utes have gone 12-3 at home over the past three seasons, and all three losses have come by a touchdown or less.

I think the Bryce Love Heisman hype after back-to-back huge games has Stanford overrated right now.  But he did his damage against two of the worst defenses in the country in UCLA and Arizona State the past two weeks.  Now Love will be up against a stout Utah defense that is allowing only 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Stanford is still limited in the passing game, only once topping 173 passing yards this season, and that was in the opener against Rice.  I think Utah's ability to stop love and the Stanford ground attack will be the key to them not only covering, but likely winning this game outright Saturday night.

Kyle Whittingham has had Stanford's number in recent meetings.  The Utes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs in 2014, and outright as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013.  They simply match up well with the Cardinal because they play similar styles.

And one thing that always gets overlooked by bettors with Utah is their dominant special teams, which is one of the best units in the land year after year.  Reigning Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowky is averaging 46.8 yards per punt, and the Utes are giving up -1 net yards per punt this season, so they're fielding well.  Also, Matt Gay is 14-for-14 on field goal attempts this season, leading the nation in scoring.  Special teams could easily be the difference in this type of game.

Utah is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 games as a dog, including 36-19 ATS in its last 55 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Utes are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Take Utah Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns are improving rapidly right now under Tom Herman.  After losing to Maryland in the opener, they've gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, covering the spread by a combined 50 points in the process.  They beat San Jose State 56-0, took USC to overtime on the road, and picked up a nice 17-7 road win at Iowa State in their Big 12 opener.  They remain undervalued here as only 3.5-point home favorites against Kansas State.

That game against Iowa State was playing last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week to get ready for this game, which is certainly an advantage.  I think the Longhorns will be focused for this game because they are just 2-2, whereas if they were 4-0 they could be looking ahead to Oklahoma.  Herman won't let them look ahead to that game given the situation.  This 3.5-point spread looks short to me.

Kansas State has been shaky the last two weeks against two mediocre teams.  Their lost 7-14 at Vanderbilt, and that loss looks even worse after Vandy lost by 59 to Alabama and 14 to Florida.  Then they only beat a winless Baylor team 33-20 at home last week.  They were actually outgained by 31 yards by the Bears.

The Wildcats are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball.  In the last two games against Vanderbilt and Baylor, they have gone a combined 17-of-45 passing for 195 yards.  That's just 38% completions and 98 passing yards per game.

That makes this an excellent matchup for the Longhorns.  Texas has held its last three opponents to just 123 rushing yards on 75 attempts, or a measly 1.6 yards per carry.  Their defensive front seven is clearly one of the best units in the country, and that will be the key to them winning and covering this measly 3.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games off a two-game road trip.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NLDS Game 2 No-Brainer on Washington -124

With the series basically on the line here for the Washington Nationals, I think we're getting them at a tremendous value as only -124 home favorites over the Chicago Cubs.  I expect them to respond in a big way here Saturday after dropping Game 1.

The Nationals have the clear edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez, who is 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Gonzalez is also 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Jon Lester has just been erratic all season and I don't expect that to change in the postseason.  Lester has gone 13-8 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 32 starts, 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 14 road starts, and 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in his last three outings.

Gonzalez is 16-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Washington is 16-5 in Gonzalez's last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Nationals Saturday.

15* LSU/Florida SEC No-Brainer on LSU +3.5

The LSU Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed with their 21-24 home loss to Troy as 20.5-point favorites.  They have been taking grief in the media all week, and they really just can't wait to get out and hit somebody Saturday to take out their frustration.  I fully expect the best performance of the season from LSU given their mental state coming into this game against Florida.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were upset 10-16 at home by Florida as 13.5-point favorites last year.  They haven't forgotten about it.  There's no way they should have lost that game either as they outgained the Gators by 153 yards for the game.  Their red zone struggles were the difference, and Florida's only TD was a fluke 98-yard TD pass to Tyrie Cleveland.

The Gators continue to be the most lucky team in college football.  They could easily be 0-4 right now instead of 3-1.  They won on a hail mary on the final play against Tennessee, scored in the closing seconds to beat Kentucky 28-27, and only led Vanderbilt 31-24 in the final seconds before breaking a long TD run when they could have just run out the clock.

And those wins clearly don't look that good now.  Tennessee was beaten 41-0 at home by Georgia, Vanderbilt was beaten 59-0 at home by Alabama, and Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 at home last week.  This Florida team is a fraud, and it showed against a team of LSU's caliber in their opener in a 17-33 loss to Michigan.  The Gators were outgained by 241 yards by the Wolverines.

This is where all those Florida injuries and suspensions catches up to them like it did against a team the class of Michigan.  Plus, the Gators are now expected to be without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland (15 receptions, 326 yards, 2 TD, 21.7/reception), who is doubtful with an ankle injury suffered in that win over Vanderbilt last week.  To say the Gators are lacking playmakers on offense would be a massive understatement.

Conversely, LSU gets some good news on the injury front as star RB Derrius Guice is probable to play Saturday.  He sat out last week's game against Troy, which was a big reason they were upset.  He rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.6/carry last year.  Not to mention, fellow starters DE Rashard Lawrence and LB Corey Thompson are both probable to play as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  LSU is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games following a loss.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  LSU is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Florida. Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +17.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a huge flat spot here against Kansas.  After pulling off the 27-24 upset at Houston, the Red Raiders had their shot to upset Oklahoma State at home last week, but fell just short with a 35-42 loss.  After playing one of the top teams in the country, they certainly aren't going to be able to get up for Kansas this week.

And I think the Red Raiders are getting way too much respect for what they've done the last two weeks.  I think Houston is way down this season compared to last year, and a closer look at the Oklahoma State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Texas Tech had a 95-yard INT return TD, and Oklahoma State settled for several short field goals, missing a couple of them as well.

One key to this game is that Texas Tech is going to be without leading receiver Keke Coutee, who suffered a knee injury against Oklahoma State and is doubtful to play this week.  Nic Shimonek looked lost without him against the Cowboys.  Coutee is by far the leading receiver on this game, catching 31 balls for 499 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 16.1 yards per reception.

Texas Tech has been a terrible road team in recent years.  We saw them losing 10-66 at Iowa State last year a week after narrowly falling short against Oklahoma State in a 44-45 loss.  This is the exact same situation against a Big 12 bottom feeder in Kansas.

But the Jayhawks are steadily improving in the third season under David Beaty.  They have been competitive in all four of their games this year.  Their offense has taken a big step forward, averaging 32.2 points and 480 yards per game thus far.  Of course their defense isn't very good, but it's not much worse than that of Texas Tech, which fields one of the worst defenses in the country every year.

This offense put up 34 points and 564 total yards against West Virgina in their last game.  Now the Jayhawks have had two full weeks to prepare for Texas Tech after getting a bye last week.  That's a big advantage and one that will be useful for a team like Kansas.  

This is a Kansas team that was competitive at home last year, only losing 23-24 to TCU as 28-point dogs, losing 24-31 to Iowa State as 11-point dogs, and actually upsetting Texas 24-21 as 23-point dogs.  They have what it takes to hang with Texas Tech, especially given the situation.

Kansas is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -4

Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  Now just look how far Georgia Southern has fallen since his departure.

Fritz took the Tulane job knowing it would be a rebuilding process.  Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread offense to Tulane in '16 and did not have the right personnel to run it. Now he does, and he welcomed back a whopping 16 starters this year, while recruiting the perfect dual-threat QB in Jonathan Banks.

The Green Wave have opened 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in 2017 and are clearly undervalued.  They beat Grambline 43-14, gave Navy all they wanted as 8-point road dogs in a 21-23 loss, and beat Army 21-17 at home as 3-point favorites.  And they should have covered against Oklahoma and actually had a 14-7 lead over the Sooners in the second quarter before falling apart after half.

Tulane had a bye last week.  It couldn't have come at a better time following that brutal three-game stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army.  So they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday against a tired, undermanned Tulsa team that will be playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.

This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for Tulsa after all they lost in the offseason.  They lost all of their top skill players on offense, and have opened 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS through five games.  Their last two games have been particularly concerning.

They lost 13-16 at home to New Mexico as 7.5-point favorites.  New Mexico was starting its third-string quarterback due to injury, and the Lobos should have won by more as they outgained Tulsa by 160 yards.  Then they had to play Navy last week, getting outgained by 167 yards in a 21-31 home loss.

Tulsa has been hit in the mouth by some elite rushing attacks this season, and they haven't offered any resistance.  The Golden Hurricane are giving up a ridiculous 320 rushing yards per game and 6.7 per carry this season.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them against a Tulane team that will shove it down their throat, too.

The Green Wave are averaging 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  And it's clearly that the Green Wave have one of the better defenses in the AAC.  They are giving up 27.5 points, 388 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opponents that average 31.3 points, 428 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So they have been well better than average defensively.  That can't be said for Tulsa, which is giving up 40.4 points, 574 yards per game and 8.2 per play.

Tulane is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Tulsa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Green Wave have only committed two turnovers in four games.  Fritz is 17-6 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fritz is 12-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game as a head coach.  Roll with Tulane Saturday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NL No-Brainer on Chicago +148

We are getting great value on the Cubs as +148 underdogs in Game 1 of this series with the Washington Nationals.  The Cubs are the defending world champs and will be more relaxed because of it, while all the pressure is on the Nationals to get over the hump in this series.

Kyle Hendricks has gone 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 road starts.  Hendricks closed the season strong, going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his final three starts.  Hendricks is also 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in five career starts against Washington, so there's a lot to like about him here.

Stephen Strasburg has little postseason experience due to injuries throughout his career.  We saw Hendricks step his game up in the postseason last year, and I'm not sure Strasburg is ready to do the same.  He's got great numbers this year, but I just don't trust him in this spot.

Chicago is 15-4 in road games off a loss by two runs or less this season.  The Cubs are 23-5 in their last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Nationals are 1-5 in their last six playoff home games.  Roll with the Cubs Friday.

20* Memphis/UConn AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UConn +14

The Memphis Tigers have been extremely overrated this season.  They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They are getting way too much respect for their 48-45 home win over UCLA in Week 3.  That was a 9:00 AM local time start for UCLA and they simply weren't ready to play.  And the fact of the matter is that UCLA team just isn't very good, especially defensively.

The other three games have been very concerning for Memphis.  They only beat Louisiana Monroe 37-29 as 28-point home favorites and FCS foe Southern Illinois 44-31 as 30-point home favorites.  Then I had UCF as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR last week against Memphis, and the Golden Knights rolled to a 40-13 home victory over the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites.  As you can see, the Tigers haven't even come close to covering the spread in any of those three games.

Now Memphis is being asked to go on the road for just the second time this season and lay two touchdowns to Connecticut.  Of course, the Huskies are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS on the season, so oddsmakers have to set the number high to try and even out the action.  But I've seen some signs from the Huskies here lately that make be believe they can hang with Memphis.

The 18-38 loss at Virginia doesn't look so bad now after Virginia went into Boise State and crushed them 42-23 as 13.5-point underdogs.  UConn then lost to ECU 38-41 in a game that was dead even in total yards.  The Huskies then played an upstart SMU team that is covering spreads left and right and lost 28-49 on the road as 16.5-point dogs.  But that was a 28-28 game in the 4th quarter before the Mustangs scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute span to pull away.  It was a misleading final score.  And that SMU team is better than Memphis.

I've been most impressed with Randy Edsall's ability to bring this UConn offense to life.  The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points, 467 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They are right there with Memphis statistically.  The Tigers are scoring 35.5 points, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  UConn QB Bryant Sherrifs has been a revelation, completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11 yards per attempt.

Neither team offers much to like defensively.  The Tigers are giving up 36.2 points, 513 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Huskies are yielding 37.0 points, 542 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So give the Tigers a slight edge defensively, but not much.  Given the closeness of the stats and the home-field advantage for the Huskies, there's no way they should be catching two touchdowns here.

Mike Norvell is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of Memphis.  UConn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Memphis is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.  

Plays against road favorites (MEMPHIS) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet UConn Friday.

15* Red Sox/Astros AL Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +167

The series is on the line here for the Boston Red Sox.  I think the value is right to pull the trigger here on them in Game 2 after losing 2-8 in Game 1.  I don't think there's that big of a difference between these two starting pitchers.

Drew Pomeranz is 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 32 starts, including 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts.  He has given up just 3 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings for a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts against Houston, two of which have come this season.

No question Dallas Keuchel is a stud at 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts.  However, he has not fared well against the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners over 13 innings in those two starts.

Pomeranz is 8-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) over the last two seasons.  Pomeranz is 8-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Keuchel is 12-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  Take the Red Sox Friday.