|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-02-21||Rockets +10.5 v. Lakers||117-119||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from an 85-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. They don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to face the Lakers in Los Angeles just two days later here Tuesday.
The Lakers are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, which is a big reason they are just 2-5 ATS this season with only one win by more than 10 points. They are without Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza. LeBron James, Dwight Howard and Wayne Ellington are questionable, and Anthony Davis is probable but playing through a knee injury.
The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive home wins. The Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Braves v. Astros -124||Top||7-0||Loss||-124||9 h 20 m||Show|
25* World Series GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Astros -124
The Atlanta Braves had the Houston Astros by the balls up 4-0 in the 1st inning in Game 5 looking to close out the series. But the Astros did not give in, coming back to win 9-5 behind the best offense in baseball. And now the Astros have all the momentum heading into Game 6, while the Braves have to be feeling like they let a golden opportunity slip away and have all the pressure on them now.
Luis Garcia has done his best work at home this season. He is 7-5 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 15 home starts. Garcia has been great in his last two starts against Boston and Atlanta, allowing just one earned run in 9 1/3 innings with 13 K's and a 0.96 ERA to boot.
Max Fried has been awful in his last two starts and will continue to struggle tonight in this pressure-packed situation. He is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA while allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings to the Dodgers and Astros. Bet the Astros in Game 6 Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Heat -2 v. Mavs||Top||125-110||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat are a juggernaut this season. They are off to a 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start after having a down year last season due to injuries and COVID. They added Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris to go along with their already loaded roster featuring Butler, Herro, Adebayo and Robinson.
The Heat are not only winning, they are dominating with all five wins coming by double-digits as they are outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game. Their lone loss came in overtime. They beat the Bucks by 42, the Magic by 17, the Nets by 13, the Hornets by 15 and the Grizzlies by 26.
I don't trust Jason Kidd and the Dallas Mavericks. They are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS. Their four wins all came against suspect competition in the Raptors, Rockets, Spurs and Kings and all four were competitive. They lost to the Hawks by 26 and the Nuggets by 31, the two best teams they have faced. Miami will be the best team they have faced yet, and they will be without Maxi Kleber and could be without Kristaps Porzingis, who is questionable.
The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. Take the Heat Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Miami-OH v. Ohio +8||Top||33-35||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +8
The Ohio Bobcats have been very competitive of late after a tough start to the season. They have gone just 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. All three losses came by 7 points or less to Central Michigan (by 3), Buffalo (by 1) and Kent State (by 7). If they lose this game to Miami (Ohio) then I expect it to be by 7 points or fewer as well.
The Bobcats were even in yardage against Kent State, only -53 yards against Buffalo and -92 yards against Central Michigan. Those are three teams that are on par with Miami (Ohio), which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. The Redhawks aren't a team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this because they have a lackluster offense.
Indeed, the Redhawks are scoring just 21.1 points per game this season. Even their defense has taken a step back this year in allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.6 yards per play. Ohio averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and has been good on that side of the ball. They give up 5.9 yards per play on defense, so not far behind Miami, which also averages 5.7 yards per play on offense.
Ohio is also playing with double-revenge after losing to Ohio 24-21 and 30-28 the last two meetings, both games that went down to the wire like this one will. In fact, Miami (Ohio) hasn't beaten Ohio by more than 3 points in any of the last 14 meetings, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Bobcats pertaining to this 8-point spread. Bet Ohio Tuesday.
|11-01-21||Giants v. Chiefs -9.5||17-20||Loss||-110||98 h 33 m||Show|
15* Giants/Chiefs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -9.5
This line opened at Chiefs -13 this week and has been bet all the way down to -9.5. It's now time to pull the trigger on the Chiefs in a game I fully expect them to win by double-digits. This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Chiefs and 'sell high' spot on the Giants.
The Chiefs are coming off a shocking 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. They will be playing with their hair on fire after that embarrassing defeat. The Giants are coming off an upset win over the Panthers 25-3 last week. They will be feeling a little fat and happy after that performance.
The Chiefs have owned the NFC East this season. They beat the Eagles 42-30 on the road and Washington 31-13 on the road. The Giants aren't better than either of those two teams. Now the Chiefs get to face an NFC East team at home here and should crush it. Daniel Jones won't be able to match Patrick Mahomes score for score, just as Taylor Heineke and Jalen Hurts came up short as well.
The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC opponents. Andy Reid is 8-1 ATS in Monday Night Football games as the coach of Kansas City. New York is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 15 points last game. Bet the Chiefs Monday.
|11-01-21||Raptors +7 v. Knicks||113-104||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the New York Knicks after their 5-1 start this season. They have feasted on a pretty easy schedule and are now laying 7 points to the Toronto Raptors, who come into this game playing too well to be catching this many points.
Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 in their last three games overall with two wins over the Pacers and a win over the Magic. They also beat the Celtics by 32 on the road earlier this season and have been competitive in every loss except their opener.
Toronto is 20-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game. Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Roll with the Raptors Monday.
|11-01-21||Cavs +5.5 v. Hornets||Top||113-110||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +5.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They have outright wins as underdogs over the Hawks by 6 as 8-point home dogs, the Nuggets by 12 as 9.5-point road dogs and the Clippers by 13 as 8-point road dogs.
They did lose on the road to the Lakers by 12 as 7.5-point dogs, but covered in a 9-point loss at Phoenix as 10-point dogs. And I like their chances of covering this 5.5-point spread on the road against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. The Cavaliers have an underrated young core and will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.
This is a terrible spot for the Hornets. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-113 shootout victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Hornets, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA. They will be flat and tired tonight and Cleveland will take advantage. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|10-31-21||Rockets +11 v. Lakers||85-95||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +11
The Los Angeles Lakers cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number with how poorly they are playing to open the season. They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS with two of their wins coming by 4 points or less, and the other by 12 over the Cavaliers.
The Lakers are just dealing with too many injuries right now, and they are still trying to gel with Russell Westbrook at point guard. LeBron James, Wayne Ellington and Rajon Rondo are questionable, while Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza are out. It's no wonder they are struggling to win games let alone get margin.
I like some of the young talent on this Houston team, which has only lost twice in five games by more than 10 points. Christian Wood (19.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG) is one of the best young players in the NBA. Then they have Green (14.2 PPG), Gordon (13.8 PPG), Porter Jr. (12.4 PPG) and Tate (8.6 PPG) leading the way.
Houston is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games following a blowout loss by 30 points or more. The Rockets come in on two days' rest after that loss to the Jazz. The Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Take the Rockets Sunday.
|10-31-21||Cowboys v. Vikings -2.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||74 h 1 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
I was going to be on the Vikings before the news that Dak Prescott is unlikely to play came out Thursday. And now I'm jumping on this 2.5-point spread thinking if Prescott doesn't play this line will close a lot higher. And I like the Vikings to win by a field goal or more either way so it will be a bonus if he doesn't play.
The Vikings are 3-3 this season but very close to being 6-0. They lost in OT on the road to the Bengals after a fumble when they were in FG range to win. They missed an extra point and a short FG at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona, and that loss looks a lot better now with the Cardinals off to a 7-0 start. And they scored on their opening drive against the Browns but didn't score again in their 14-7 loss, and that was a healthy Browns team that was playing well.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys. They are the only team in the NFL that has covered every spread with a perfect 6-0 ATS record. But they have had a lot of turnover luck go their way as they have forced at least two turnovers in every game and 14 in six games overall. That is unsustainable.
The Cowboys still have a terrible defense that will get exposed here against this elite Minnesota offense. Dallas gives up 381 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Vikings are 17th in in defensive yards per play at 5.6 to compare.
This Minnesota offense averages 24.5 points and 414 yards per games to go along with 5.9 yards per play. Dalvin Cook is back in the fold, and Kirk Cousins is playing well. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio. And he won't have to try and match Dak Prescott score for score if he doesn't play.
Minnesota was a dominant home team under Mike Zimmer prior to the last two years due to the design of the stadium. It is loud and very tough for opponents. But not having fans last year makes us throw last year out. And they are 2-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Browns.
Minnesota is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 home games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in the last six home meetings. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|10-31-21||Kings +4.5 v. Mavs||Top||99-105||Loss||-105||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* Kings/Mavs Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Sacramento +4.5
The Sacramento Kings have impressed me a lot getting to 3-2 against a brutal early schedule. They have three outright road wins over the Blazers as 6.5-point dogs, the Suns as 8-point dogs and the Pelicans as 1.5-point favorites. Their two losses came to the Jazz and Warriors at home in competitive games.
Now the Kings had yesterday off and are fresh and ready to take down the Dallas Mavericks. This is a Mavericks team I just do not trust with Jason Kidd as head coach, and Kristaps Porzingis being the 'robin' to Doncic's 'batman. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS this season and coming off a 31-point road loss to the Nuggets. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.
Sacramento is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine Sunday home games. The Kings are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|10-31-21||Titans v. Colts -113||Top||34-31||Loss||-113||95 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -113
The Colts will be out for revenge from a 25-16 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season. They have been a different team since that loss. They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss came in overtime against the Ravens on the road after blowing a 19-point lead.
They beat the Dolphins by 10 on the road, the Texans by 28 at home and the 49ers by 12 on the road. Carson Wentz is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Colts are getting healthier by the week.
I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans. They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bills and Chiefs. That 27-3 win over the broken Chiefs last week has them overvalued. The Titans could be missing both starting tackles on the offensive line and their injury list is ugly.
Slowing down Derrick Henry is the key to slowing down the Titans. The Colts have a pretty good run defense in giving up just 111 rushing yards per game. The Titans have a weak defense this season that gives up nearly 380 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.
The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Colts are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-31-21||Rams v. Texans +14.5||38-22||Loss||-109||67 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +14.5
It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week after losing six straight and going 1-4 ATS in their five games since losing QB Tyrod Taylor to injury. The Texans looked great with Taylor in the first 1.5 games at QB, and now he is expected to make his much-anticipated return from a hamstring injury this week.
We'll gladly take the 14.5 points at home with the Texans. They were last seen at home nearly upsetting the Patriots as 8-point dogs in a 22-25 loss even with Davis Mills at QB. The other three games were all tough road losses to the Bills, Colts and Cardinals. Having Taylor back will allow them to stay within this massive spread against the Rams.
Los Angeles was in a dog fight with the Detroit Lions last week in a 28-19 home win. That's a Detroit team that is not any better than the Texans with Taylor. And it was an emotional game for Matthew Stafford against his former team. Now this is a letdown spot for the Rams, who probably feel like they just have to show up to win. It's also a 1:00 EST game which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams.
Taylor is completing 70.5% of his passes for 416 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his six quarters of action this season. He has also rushed for 55 yards and a score. He just brings a much needed dimension to this offense that Davis Mills lacked. He will keep the offense on the field for longer stretches, and that will help this defense get some rest, which it hasn't had much of with Mills under center.
The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-30-21||Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 44||30-20||Win||100||32 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State/SDSU OVER 44
The books have set this number too low based off of what San Diego State has been doing in recent weeks. The UNDER is 3-0 in SDSU's last three games overall. But all three games came against running teams in New Mexico (34 attempts), SJSU (42 attempts) and Air Force (48 attempts).
Fresno State will not oblige. The Bulldogs will put up some points and attack this San Diego State defense through the air, which is their biggest weakness. The Bulldogs average 35.6 points, 479.6 yards per game and 341 passing yards per game on 40 attempts per game. They will get their points, and San Diego State will be forced to try and get theirs too to keep up with them.
The Aztecs have been able to get their points this season, too, especially at home. They are scoring 31.0 points per game overall and 35.0 points per game at home. You can definitely score on this Fresno State defense, and the Aztecs should come close to their season average. They combine to average nearly 66 points per game on offense. So they can fall well short of that and still get this OVER 44 with ease.
The OVER is 8-2 in Bulldogs last 10 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-30-21||Thunder +12.5 v. Warriors||Top||82-103||Loss||-110||10 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have impressed me in their last two games. They covered as 9.5-point dogs in an 8-point home loss to Golden State two games back. They came back the very next night and upset the Lakers by 8 as 6-point home dogs last time out.
Now the Thunder want revenge from that 8-point loss to the Warriors. And they are catching 12.5 points this time around. Not only that, but the Thunder come in rested playing on two days' rest, so expect a big effort from them tonight.
The Warriors are overvalued after their 4-1 start this season. They have feasted on a pretty weak schedule as they were favored in four of their five games. And now they are laying their biggest number of the season here. They just don't have the talent to cover these big numbers, especially in this unfavorable spot. Take the Thunder Saturday.
|10-30-21||Hawks v. 76ers -3||Top||94-122||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3
The Philadelphia 76ers want revenge after getting upset by the Atlanta Hawks in the playoffs last year. This is their first shot at getting it, and I look for them to take advantage by getting the win and cover at home. The 76ers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the last few seasons.
The Hawks have not been good on the road this season. They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS on the highway. They were upset 95-101 at Cleveland as 8-point favorites. They only won 102-99 at New Orleans as 5-point favorites. And they lost 111-122 at Washington as 3-point favorites. And this will be their toughest road test to date.
Philadelphia is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games following an ATS loss. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
|10-30-21||Louisville +7 v. NC State||Top||13-28||Loss||-116||72 h 23 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +7
I like this Louisville team a lot. They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points. And the schedule has not been easy. I cashed Louisville as a free pick in a 28-14 win over Boston College last week.
They dominated that game and won by 14 despite committing four turnovers. They outgained Boston College by 172 yards. They have been competitive in every game outside of the opener against Ole Miss. And it turns out Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country.
NC State could easily suffer a hangover from that 1-point loss to Miami last week. Louisville has an elite offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 1,684 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 480 yards and being tied for the national league in rushing touchdowns (13). His dual-threat ability will be a handful for this NC State defense.
NC State is 0-10 ATS against good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last three seasons. Take Louisville Saturday.
|10-30-21||Knicks -5.5 v. Pelicans||123-117||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks -5.5
The New York Knicks are a real contender in the East this season with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go along with their already great core from last year that made the playoffs.
Fournier is averaging 17.2 points per game while Walker is at 14.2 points per game thus far in leading the Knicks to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start. Now the Knicks come in rested after beating the Bulls on the road on Thursday and having yesterday off.
The Pelicans don't have that same luxury. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a 109-113 home loss to the Kings last night. The Pelicans are just 1-5 this season and just aren't playing well without their best player in Zion Williamson. I faded them successfully with the Kings last night, and I'm fading them again tonight due to the awful spot.
The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in Saturday games over the last two seasons. They are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games. New York is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. The Knicks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites. New York is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to New Orleans. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|10-30-21||Kansas +30.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||3-55||Loss||-110||28 h 17 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas +30.5
Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their offense just isn't up to par compared to years' past for the Cowboys. And that's why despite being 6-1 they haven't won a single game by more than 11 points this season, and that includes their 23-16 win over Missouri State. They should not be laying 30.5 points to Kansas with that offense this week.
Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week. The Jayhawks got screwed by the refs as they stopped the Sooners on 4th and 1 down 5 with a chance to get the ball back and win the game. But the refs didn't rule forward progress stopped, and a fluky handoff from the RB back to the QB got the Sooners the first down.
Kansas is going to keep battling under first-year head coach Lance Leipold, who was one of the sneakiest coaching hires in the offseason. They continue to improve and have found their quarterback. Jason Bean completed 17-of-23 passes for 246 yards, while also rushing for 59 yards in the 23-35 loss to Oklahoma last week. He'll be able to make enough plays against this Oklahoma State defense to keep the Jayhawks within four touchdowns.
Oklahoma State opened 6-0 but then suffered that dream crushing loss to Iowa State on the road last week. Their chances of making the four-team playoff is basically out the door now, and I expect them to suffer a 'hangover' here against Kansas. They probably feel like they can just show up and win this game, and they'll just be going through the motions in practice all week. It will carry over into a flat effort Saturday.
The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning four or five of their last six games. Plays on underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (Kansas) - after four ore more consecutive losses in Weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with Kansas Saturday.
|10-30-21||Celtics +2 v. Wizards||112-115||Loss||-107||7 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston Celtics +2
I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight. They come in on two days' rest after losing 107-116 at home to Washington as 4-point favorites on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge on the Wizards three days later and are 2-point dogs this time around, a 6-point adjustment.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Wizards, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. And they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Celtics this time around. Plus, they are short-handed playing without Bryant, Hachimura and Gafford right now.
The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|10-30-21||Florida State +9.5 v. Clemson||20-30||Loss||-110||25 h 47 m||Show|
15* FSU/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +9.5
The Florida State Seminoles have turned around their season by going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. The 35-25 win at North Carolina as 17.5-point dogs showed their potential. And they basically had a bye last week, beating UMass 59-3 which allowed them to empty their bench and keep players fresh for this week's showdown with Clemson.
Clemson has been the biggest money burner in college football. They are good by name only, not by the product they put on the field. Clemson is 4-3 SU & 0-7 ATS this season. Their offense is broken, scoring 21 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season. The only exception was against FCS South Carolina State. Their lackluster offense is going to make it tough to beat Florida State by double-digits.
Don't be surprised to see Clemson just go through the motions the rest of the way. They already have three losses overall and two losses within the conference, so they won't be going to the four-team playoff and likely don't even have a chance to win the ACC. And I don't think they care much about it, either.
This is Florida State's 'Super Bowl'. The Seminoles will be highly motivated to end a five-game losing streak to Clemson in this head-to-head series, and this is their best chance in years to put an end to it. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Plays on any team (Florida State) - an excellent rushing team that averages at least 4.8 yards per carry against a team that rushes for 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 200 or more yards are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Florida State Saturday.
|10-30-21||Boston College +6.5 v. Syracuse||6-21||Loss||-105||25 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +6.5
It's time to 'sell high' on Syracuse. The Orange are coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech to improve to 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS this season. Now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against Boston College this week after being underdogs in seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against FCS Albany.
In fact, Syracuse is now favored for the first time over an FBS opponent in two years. Not only are they favored, they would have to win this game by 7-plus points to beat us to get the cover. Their offense just isn't good enough to get margin. Each of their last five games were decided by 5 points or fewer either way.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Boston College coming off three straight losses against three very good teams in Louisville, NC State and Clemson. They beat Missouri the game prior. They did have a bye three weeks ago so they are still fresh. And Syracuse if the tired team here playing for a 9th consecutive week to start the season. That's a huge factor in this game.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Eagles are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win. Take Boston College Saturday.
|10-30-21||Rutgers -1.5 v. Illinois||Top||20-14||Win||100||70 h 37 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -1.5
Rutgers wore down playing seven straight weeks to start the season and a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule. They went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS to open Big Ten play before having their bye last week. Now they come back refreshed and ready to try and make a bowl game by getting three more wins the rest the way.
They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season and take a big step down in class here against Illinois. It's a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Illini. They are coming off that crazy 9-OT road win at Penn State last week as 24.5-point dogs. I expect them to still be tired and to fall flat on their faces at home this week against Rutgers.
It's a great matchup for the Scarlet Knights. Illinois averages 184 rushing yards per game but just 139 passing. Rutgers has been great against the run. They give up just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 5.1 yards per carry. So they are holding their opponents to 1.1 yards per carry below their season average.
Illinois is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games with a total of 42 or less. The Scarlet Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Rutgers is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|10-30-21||Miami-FL +9.5 v. Pittsburgh||38-34||Win||100||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +9.5
Miami has some momentum after a season-saving win in a 31-30 upset victory over a very good NC State team last week. Freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke got huge praise from head coach Manny Diaz after the game, and rightfully so. He completed 25-of-33 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns against a great NC State defense.
Now the Hurricanes have their sights set on Pittsburgh, a team that is coming off one of the biggest wins in program history in a 27-17 victory over Clemson last week. But that was a big win in name only as Clemson is way down this season. And I look for the Panthers to suffer a letodwn this week, and it's a great time to 'sell high' on them after their 6-1 ATS start.
Miami has simply owned Pitt, going 17-3 SU in the last 20 meetings. The Panthers always seem to struggle with their athletes and will again in this matchup. Miami only lost by 2 to Virginia and by 3 to UNC in its two games prior to the win over NC State, so they have been playing well for weeks but just coming up short. This game is likely to be decided by one score, too.
The Hurricanes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset win as an underdog, including 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 10-22-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Miami Saturday.
|10-30-21||Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin||7-27||Loss||-116||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +3.5
The Wisconsin Badgers are a tired team right now playing for a 6th consecutive week with their last five games coming against Notre Dame, Michigan, Illinois, Army and Purdue. Now they have to face a physical Iowa team and it's a tough spot for them because of it.
Meanwhile, Iowa is fresh and prepared coming off its bye week following its first loss of the season against Purdue. The bye couldn't have come at a better time because it gives the Hawkeyes time to get healthy after playing seven straight weeks to start the season. It also makes it much easier to get over that 'dream crusher' type of loss to the Boilermakers. They can get back to focusing on just winning the West and beating Wisconsin here.
Iowa doesn't make mistakes, and Wisconsin does. The Badgers have committed 17 turnovers this season. Iowa has forced 21 turnovers. At some point, turnovers aren't luck with certain teams, and Iowa is a team you can trust every year to win the turnover battle more times than not. Wisconsin's Graham Mertz is awful and cannot be trusted to take care of the ball as he's shown time and time again this year.
This is a rare case where a Top 10 team is an underdog to an unranked team. Well, the last 10 times this has happened, the Top 10 underdog has gone 9-1 ATS. So I think we are definitely getting value here on the Hawkeyes at +3.5, especially in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal with the lowest total of the season at 36 points. This has 20-17 written all over it.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa) - in conference games off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite are 51-19 (72.9%) ATS since 1992. Kirk Ferentz is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse as the coach of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday.
|10-30-21||Texas State +21 v. UL-Lafayette||0-45||Loss||-110||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas State +21
It's time to 'sell high' on Louisiana-Lafayette after six straight victories. They just play to their level of competition. They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites.
Texas State is more than capable of staying within three touchdowns of Louisiana and likely taking this game down to the wire. The Bobcats are just 2-5 this season but four of those losses came by 12 points or less. That includes their 9-point loss to Baylor, which looks like a very good loss at this point.
Texas State has a decent up-tempo offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number. And this is the best Bobcats defense they have had in recent memory. They allow a respectable 422 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so it's at least an average defense this year.
Louisiana had a great team last year and only beat Texas State 44-34 as a 16.5-point favorite. Now they come back as 21-point favorites in the rematch, which is too much. Lafayette is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following six or more consecutive wins. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Texas State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game. Louisiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Roll with Texas State Saturday.
|10-29-21||UNLV +20 v. Nevada||Top||20-51||Loss||-108||12 h 8 m||Show|
20* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +20
UNLV is way undervalued right now due to its 0-7 record. But this team has come close to winning several times with five losses by one score. They could easily have a winning record right now. But because of that record, we are catching 20 points with them in this rivalry game with Nevada.
This game means a lot more to UNLV than it does to Nevada this year. The Wolf Pack are coming off a 32-34 loss to Fresno State that could easily cost them the conference title. They will suffer a hangover from that defeat. UNLV also played Fresno tough, only losing 30-38 on the road.
I like the spot for the Rebels. This is their 'Super Bowl'. They are also the fresher team and come in on seven days' rest after playing last Thursday. Nevada only comes in on five days' rest after playing Fresno late Saturday night.
UNLV is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. Each of the last four meetings were decided by 18 points or less, including three by one score. The Rebels are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet UNLV Friday.
|10-29-21||Kings -2 v. Pelicans||Top||113-109||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2
The Sacramento Kings have faced four playoff teams in the West thus far with one of the toughest schedules in the NBA. They have done well getting to 2-2 with two road wins over both the Blazers and Suns. They lost at home to the Jazz and Warriors.
Now the Kings take a big step down in competition here against the New Orleans Pelicans, who remain without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans are 1-4 this season with losses to the 76ers by 20, the Bulls by 16, the Timberwolves by 7 and the Hawks by 3. Their lone win came against the Timberwolves. There's just not much talent on this team with Zion out and the players they traded away in the offseason.
Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following a win by 6 points or less. The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Bet the Kings Friday.
|10-29-21||Astros +105 v. Braves||0-2||Loss||-100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Astros/Braves Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +105
The Houston Astros have the best offense in baseball. They have scored 5 runs or more in 13 of their last 15 games overall. And I'll ride that offense to victory again in Game 3 here against the Atlanta Braves and the shaky Ian Anderson.
Luis Garcia is 12-8 witha. 3.69 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 31 starts this season for the Astros. He just shut out the Red Sox in 5 2/3 innings while allowing only two base runners in a 5-0 victory in Game 6 to close out that last series. He'll come back with a ton of confidence from that start.
The Braves are 7-17 in their last 24 interleague games. Atlanta is 11-28 in its last 39 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves are 1-11 in their last 12 interleague home games. Houston is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Roll with the Astros Friday.
|10-28-21||Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals||Top||24-21||Win||100||25 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/Cardinals FOX No-Brainer on Green Bay +6.5
This line has gotten out of hand with the news that Devante Adams and Allen Lazard are out for the Packers. It has ballooned from Packers +3 to Packers +6.5, which is too big of an adjustment. There's now value to pull the trigger on the Packers Thursday night.
Quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers are a dime a dozen. He is capable of making his receivers better than they are. And I think he'll welcome the challenge here of trying to hand the Arizona Cardinals their first loss of the season without those two. Plus, the Packers are 6-0 the last three seasons without Adams and scoring 32.8 points per game, so they have had no problem scoring in his absence.
The Cardinals are already overvalued due to their perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS record this season. It's time to 'sell high' on them here Thursday night against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers. You could argue that Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and getting him as this big of a dog is very enticing.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off four straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.
Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Arizona is 1-11 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|10-28-21||Knicks v. Bulls -114||Top||104-103||Loss||-114||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls ML -114
The Chicago Bulls are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They are loaded with returnees Zach LaVine (25.5 PPG), Nikola Vucevic (14.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG) and Patrick Williams (6.8 PPG). But the additions of DeMar DeRozan (22.5 PPG), Lonzo Ball (14.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Alex Caruso (8.0 PPG) have made them a real contender in the East.
The New York Knicks just ended a 15-game losing streak to the Philadelphia 76ers with a 112-99 home victory on Tuesday. That makes this a letdown spot for them. I also like the fact that the Bulls are on extra rest as they have had the last two days off after last playing on Monday.
Chicago is 32-10 SU in its last 42 home meetings with New York. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Roll with the Bulls Thursday.
|10-28-21||Troy +17 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-35||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
20* Troy/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy +17
Coastal Carolina just suffered the type of dream crushing loss that could wreck their season, at least for a week. They had dreams of making a New Year's 6 Bowl likely taken away from them with their 27-30 road loss at Appalachian State last week.
That game wasn't even as close as the final score as they were outgained by 229 yards and gave up 575 total yards to the Mountaineers. Now they have to come back a week later and try and get back up off the mat to face Troy. I don't think they will be fully focused, and I think there will be a hangover effect from that defeat.
Troy is 4-3 this season and has been competitive in every game with its largest loss coming by 13 points. That includes an 8-point loss to Liberty, which is a team on Coastal Carolina's level. I think the Trojans can stay within this big number just as they did last season.
The Trojans will be playing with double-revenge after losing 35-36 to Coastal Carolina in 2019 and 38-42 as 12-point dogs last year, two losses by a combined 5 points. Troy also has the benefit of coming off a bye week with their last game coming two Saturday's ago. So they have had nearly two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Chanticleers.
The forecast is going to help us here, too. There is nearly a 100% chance of rain Thursday night with winds gusting between 20-30 MPH. That's going to make both teams have to run the football. And Troy has been elite at stopping the run. They only give up 95 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry this season. Coastal gives up 144 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Points will be hard to come by, which favors the big dog here.
Troy is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who force 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Troy Thursday.
|10-27-21||Lakers v. Thunder +8||Top||115-123||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. But it's a much better spot for the Thunder as they get to stay home following an 8-point loss to the Warriors last night.
The Lakers have to travel after facing the Spurs and escaping with a 125-121 victory. They also escaped with a 121-118 victory over the Grizzlies at home the game prior. They lost to the Suns by 10 and the Warriors by 7 at home as well. They are just 1-3 ATS this season and struggling to gel with Russell Westbrook.
Now the Lakers have more problems in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation. They have a plethora of injuries. Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Wayne Ellington are all questionable to play tonight. Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza were already out. They won't have enough bodies to put away the Thunder by 8-plus points tonight.
The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall. Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a win. Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with the Lakers. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|10-27-21||Wolves v. Bucks OVER 228||113-108||Loss||-115||10 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Bucks OVER 228
The Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves both prefer to play at fast paces. The Bucks rank 3rd in pace while the Timberwolves rank 5th. That should lead to a shootout between these two great offensive teams tonight.
Both meetings last season were very high-scoring. The Bucks won 139-112 at home for 251 combined points in their first meeting. The Bucks also won 130-105 on the road for 235 combined points in the second meeting. I think we are getting value with the OVER 228 tonight.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 5-1 in Bucks last six games playing on one days rest. The OVER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games as underdogs. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-27-21||Braves v. Astros -111||2-7||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
15* Braves/Astros Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -111
The Houston Astros will bounce back from a Game 1 loss and tie this series. They have scored 5 runs or more in 12 of their last 14 games and will get their bats going again tonight against Max Fried.
Fried allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Dodgers. He'll be opposed by Jose Urquidy, who has been at his best at home this season. Urquidy is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 10 home starts in 2021.
The Astros are 49-21 in their last 70 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Houston is 149-69 in its last 218 games as a home favorite. The Astros are 5-1 in the last six meetings. Roll with the Astros Wednesday.
|10-26-21||Braves v. Astros -129||6-2||Loss||-129||10 h 47 m||Show|
15* Braves/Astros Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -129
The Houston Astros have been a freight train at the plate and their best offense in baseball has carried them to the World Series. They have scored 5 runs or more in 12 of their last 13 games overall. They went 3-0 in their final three games against the Red Sox and outscored them 23-3 in the process.
The Braves have been a great story, but it isn't going to end well, starting with Game 1 tonight. Charlie Morton has posted a 5.05 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Astros. This will be one of his toughest tests of the season tonight.
Framber Valdez has been solid all season for the Astros. He has gone 12-6 with a 3.25 ERA in 25 starts this season. Houston is 59-20 in its last 79 games following an off day. The Astros are 94-38 in their last 132 during Game 1 of a series. Houston is 46-22 in its last 68 home games. Roll with the Astros in Game 1 Tuesday.
|10-26-21||76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218||99-112||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 218
I really like the UNDER in this game between the 76ers and Knicks tonight. The Knicks were the best UNDER team in the NBA last season, and their defense-first philosophy won't change under Tom Thibodeau this season. I think the fact that they have gone over the total in all three games this season provides us with value on the UNDER tonight.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The 76ers and Knicks have combined for 201 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. They have combined for 213 or fewer in six of their last seven as well. This has been an UNDER series and will continue to be tonight.
The UNDER is 17-8 in 76ers last 25 road games. The UNDER is 11-2 in 76ers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-26-21||76ers v. Knicks -114||Top||99-112||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks ML -114
The New York Knicks picked up two impressive wins over the Celtics and Magic by 25 in their first two games. I bet the Magic against them last game, and they won outright as 12-point dogs. It was a predictable letdown spot for the Magic in a home-and-home situation. But now we can 'buy low' on the Knicks here against the 76ers.
The 76ers have a lot of turmoil right now surrounding Ben Simmons. They also have a lot of injuries with Simmons out, and Embiid, Milton and Drummond all questionable. Their two wins came against the lowly Pelicans and Thunder. They lost to the best team they have faced in the Nets.
The Knicks are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games with a line of +3 to -3. The 76ers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. The Knicks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as favorites. New York is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
|10-25-21||Saints v. Seahawks +4||13-10||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
15* Saints/Seahawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +4
The Seattle Seahawks are playing to save their season tonight. At 2-4 they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think we get a big effort from them in front of a hostile crowd in Seattle.
Geno Smith has actually looked pretty good in replacing Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a chance to beat the Rams even without Wilson in the second half. They also had a chance to beat the Steelers in a 20-23 road loss. Smith is completing 67.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.
I think the Saints are getting too much respect from the books due to coming off their bye week. But you just can't trust Jameis Winston to go on the road and cover a 4-point spread here in a hostile environment in Seattle.
The Saints have terrible stats this season. They are averaging just 295.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 354.0 yards per game on defense, so they are getting outgained by 58.8 yards per game. They are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play. The Seahawks have good numbers from a YPP perspective, outgaining opponents by 0.4 YPP on the season.
The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss. Seattle is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Seahawks Monday.
|10-25-21||Pelicans +5.5 v. Wolves||107-98||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5
I like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They will be out for revenge from an 89-96 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday. They won't have to wait long to get it as they face the Timberwolves again tonight in Minnesota.
New Orleans is highly motivated for revenge and to get its first win. Minnesota is feeling good about itself after a 2-0 start with their other win coming against the Rockets. I think they let up tonight after having already beaten the Pelicans, which is going to make it tough for them to cover this 5.5-point spread.
The Timberwolves are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. The Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|10-25-21||Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||111-108||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and coming off wins by 16 and 15 points. They are the real deal this season with LaVine, Vucevic and Williams to go along with newcomers Ball, DeRozan and Caruso. There's a lot to like about this team.
Now DeRozan will enjoy his shot at revenge against his former team in the Toronto Raptors tonight, and the Bulls should rally around him. The Raptors are missing their best player in Pascal Siakam. The Raptors are 1-2 this season with a 15-point home loss to Washington and an 8-point home loss to Dallas.
The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Toronto is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|10-24-21||Magic +12 v. Knicks||110-104||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12
I like the spot for the Orlando Magic today. This is a home-and-home situation. The Knicks lost 121-96 at home to the Knicks as 8-point underdogs on Friday. Now they come back as 12-point underdogs in New York in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.
The Magic will be the more motivated team in the rematch. The Knicks will feel like they just have to show up to win. And they have a huge game on deck against the 76ers that they could be looking ahead to.
Plays against favorites (New York) - after scoring 120 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 43 points or less in the first half last game are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. Take the Magic Sunday.
|10-24-21||Texans +18 v. Cardinals||5-31||Loss||-102||23 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +18
It's time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They're the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0. They are coming off three straight huge wins over the Rams, 49ers and Browns. This is the ultimate letdown spot for them with the perceived worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans coming to town.
Plus, the Cardinals have another huge game with the Green Bay Packers on deck Thursday. They will be looking ahead to that game. They will also be playing this game just to get a win and get out of the game healthy for that Packers game. They won't be looking to run up the score.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texans after five consecutive losses. I actually like what I have seen from this Houston offense the last two weeks despite the scoreboard results. They had 360 yards and outgained the Patriots by 8 yards two weeks ago in their 22-25 loss. They had 353 yards against the Colts last week, but just 3 points, which should be impossible. That misleading 31-3 loss where they were only outgained by 35 yards has this number inflated with an 18-point spread this week.
Arizona is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. They got to play against two banged-up offenses the last two weeks in the 49ers and Browns. The Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-24-21||Hornets +9.5 v. Nets||111-95||Win||100||5 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season. They have a nice core of Ball, Bridges, Hayward and Washington. They added Oubre Jr. in the offseason, which was a great move.
The Brooklyn Nets are going to be consistently overvalued this season because they are one of the favorites to win the NBA title. But they don't have Kyrie Irving because of personal choices he has made. And they don't have a lot of help outside Kevin Durant and James Harden. They lost by 23 to the Bucks in their opener before coming back to beat the 76ers by 5. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
|10-24-21||Eagles +3 v. Raiders||Top||22-33||Loss||-107||98 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles +3
I think most the country was shocked to see the Raiders win 34-24 at Denver as 5-point underdogs last week. With all the John Gruden turmoil surrounding the team it was hard to know what to expect, so I stayed away from that game.
But teams always seem to have a big effort in that first game with a new head coach. The Raiders rallied around each other. They also got some help with four turnovers from the Broncos. It was an injury-ravaged Broncos team that still managed 421 yards against their soft defense.
I think it's time to fade the Raiders this week in their 2nd game back without Gruden. They won't be nearly as motivated as they were last week. The motivated team will be the Eagles, who have lost four of their last five and are playing for their season. But you won't find a harder 5-game stretch all season than the one Philadelphia just faced.
The five games came against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs. They gave the Bucs all they wanted last Thursday in a 22-28 home loss. And now the Eagles have had an extra three days to get ready for this game. They come in as healthy as they have been all season. Jalen Hurts and all that speed on offense should shred this terrible Raiders defense that is giving up 24 PPG.
The Raiders are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games as favorites. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|10-24-21||Panthers -3 v. Giants||3-25||Loss||-100||20 h 46 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off three straight one-score losses against some pretty good competition in the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings. Now they are only 3-point favorites against the lowly New York Giants.
The Giants are off to yet another 1-5 start this season. The last two losses weren't even close as they lost by 24 to the Cowboys and 27 to the Rams. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Giants. They have 22 players on the injury report with 17 out and five questionable. They are missing a ton of weapons on offense, and Daniel Jones isn't right, either.
The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Giants are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. The Giants are an easy team to figure out. They consistently get too much respect at home and not enough on the road. They have almost zero home-field advantage with the way the fans feel about this team right now. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|10-24-21||New Mexico State +18 v. Hawaii||34-48||Win||100||32 h 43 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +18
The New Mexico State Aggies have been covering machines. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and still somehow flying under the radar. Their only non-cover came in a 21-41 home loss to this same Hawaii team as 16.5-point dogs.
Now the Aggies are catching 18 points in the rematch and will be out for revenge. There's reason to believe they can keep this close and possibly pull off the upset. The Aggies actually gained 401 yards in that 21-41 loss and were only outgained by 91 yards. They have been outgained by 91 or fewer yards in five of their last six games overall despite playing some tough competition like Nevada, Hawaii, SJSU and San Diego State, which they actually outgained.
Hawaii is 3-4 this season with its three wins coming against New Mexico State by 20, Portland State by 14 and Fresno State by 3. The Rainbow Warriors lost by 34 to UCLA, by 18 to Oregon State, by 7 to SJSU and by 17 to Nevada.
The Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. New Mexico State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as home favorites. Hawaii is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 home games. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.
|10-23-21||Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls||82-97||Loss||-108||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5
This is a bad spot for the Chicago Bulls. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating a very bad New Orleans Pelicans team at home last night. And I question their motivation here after already beating the Pistons in their opener.
Detroit will be the more motivated, fresher team here catching 8.5 points. The Pistons want revenge from their 88-94 home loss to the Bulls on Wednesday. It was a back and forth game, and I think this one will play out that way as well. Bet the Pistons Saturday.
|10-23-21||Heat -4 v. Pacers||91-102||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4
This is a very tough spot for the Indiana Pacers. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and are coming off a 134-135 (OT) loss to Washington without Bradley Beal yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for this 2nd of a back-to-back, especially since they are missing some key players to injury already.
The Miami Heat are loaded this season. They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson. Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.
The Heat will be fresh as this will be just their second game of the season. They were very impressive in their 137-95 home win over Milwaukee on Thursday. Herro had 27, Butler 21 and Adebayo 20 to lead the way.
Indiana is 2-16 ATS in its last 18 games after playing two consecutive road games. The Heat are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings in Indiana. Roll with the Heat Saturday.
|10-23-21||Tennessee v. Alabama -25||24-52||Win||100||27 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -25
The Alabama Crimson Tide need style points now after losing to Texas A&M. They just beat Mississippi State 49-9 on the road last week. That's why I'm willing to lay the -25 with them this week as they host the Tennessee Volunteers. There's also another key reason I'm willing to lay it.
Tennessee is a very tired team. They will be playing for an 8th consecutive week. They just had to face 101 plays against Ole Miss' high-powered offense last week. They gave up 510 yards to the Rebels. Now Alabama will score at will against their tired, banged up defense.
The Crimson Tide are putting up 45.0 points per game this season. If they get to their season average like I think they will, they are going to cover this number. I don't see Tennessee getting to 20 points. They still don't know if starting QB Hendon Hooker is going to play, and I don't think it matters much. But if they have to go to backup Joe Milton it's going to get real ugly and would be a bonus for us.
The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Crimson Tide are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings winning by 31, 22, 37, 38 and 39 points. Take Alabama Saturday.
|10-23-21||UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5||45-16||Loss||-110||27 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +6.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the UTSA Roadrunners. They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season to make backers a lot of money. But it has come against the 131st-ranked schedule in the country.
Louisiana Tech has played the 78th-ranked schedule. It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after their 2-4 start and coming off an ugly 19-3 loss to UTEP. But they could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4. They only lost by 1 to Mississippi State as 20.5-point dogs. They lost on a hail mary to SMU by 2 as 11-point dogs. And they only lost by 7 at NC State as 18.5-point dogs.
Those three teams are all better than anything UTSA has faced. The seven wins have come against the likes of Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, WKU and Rice. And keep in mind four of those wins came by one score, so they are very fortunate to be 7-0.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Louisiana Tech) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game in the second half of the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. LA Tech is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss. Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|10-23-21||Oregon v. UCLA -1||Top||34-31||Loss||-109||23 h 18 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -1
The UCLA Bruins are 5-2 this season with their only losses coming to Fresno State and Arizona State. Four of their five wins have come by double-digits. I think they are the better team here than Oregon and should be more than a 1-point home favorite.
The Bruins have some great numbers. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally only allow 5.4 yards per play. They are giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense against teams that normally allow 5.8 yards per play. Their improvement on defense has been a big reason they are so good this year, and they boast an offense that rushes for 220 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.
Oregon has gotten too much respect ever since its upset win at Ohio State. The Ducks are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. The Ducks were actually outgained by 42 yards by awful Arizona and were fortunate to win that game forcing five turnovers. They were upset at 8.5-point favorites at Stanford. And they only beat Cal by 7 as 13.5-point favorites. They are missing their best RB in CJ Verdell, and QB Anthony Brown is not as good as advertised.
The Bruins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game. The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference games. Finally, UCLA wants revenge from a tough 35-38 road loss to Oregon last year. Bet UCLA Saturday.
|10-23-21||Northwestern +24 v. Michigan||Top||7-33||Loss||-115||70 h 58 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +24
Northwestern always seems to get better as the season goes along under Pat Fitzgerald. There have been numerous instances where they got off to a slow start and rallied in the Big Ten schedule. And that appears to be the case again this season.
After a 2-3 start, Northwestern came back from its bye a different team last week. The Wildcats beat Rutgers 21-7, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 180 yards. They held them to just 222 total yards and have a good defense. That defense should carry them to a cover here against Michigan in what I expect to be an ugly-low-scoring Big Ten game.
Michigan is overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #6 National Ranking. Yes, the Wolverines are coming off their bye week, but some bye weeks are better than others. They had momentum and now that momentum is gone with this bye week.
They were probably feeling fat and happy over the last 2 weeks instead of hungry due to their 6-0 record and Top 10 ranking. I expect them to be flat against Northwestern Saturday. Even if they're not, it's going to take a perfect game for them to cover this 24-point spread, and I'm willing to bet against it.
The Wildcats are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 road games. Northwestern is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog. The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|10-22-21||Pelicans +7 v. Bulls||112-128||Loss||-107||11 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +7
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most hyped teams in the NBA coming into the season. And they managed to cover despite a poor shooting performance in a 94-88 win at Detroit as 5.5-point favorites. But the Pistons are awful and were missing Cade Cunningham.
Now the Bulls are about as big of a favorite as they have been at any point over the last couple seasons as 7-point favorites over the Pelicans. I do like the talent on the Bulls, but I think we can make some money fading their hype early.
It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Pelicans off their 20-point loss to the 76ers in the opener. They shot just 41.9% as a team, largely due to an awful game from newcomer Jonas Valanciunas (3-for-19). He is much better than that and I think he is an upgrade over Steven Adams, who they traded to the Grizzlies for him.
Chicago is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games following a win. The Bulls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Friday night home games. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. New Orleans is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Chicago. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.
|10-22-21||Knicks -7.5 v. Magic||121-96||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -7.5
The Orlando Magic already have some of the worst talent in the entire NBA. I think they are the worst team in the NBA to open the season with all their injuries. They are without Gary Harris, Michael Carter-Williams, Chuma Okeke, E'Twuan Moore, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac.
Their lack of talent showed in their 97-123 road loss to the Spurs in the opener. And it's not going to get any easier here against the Knicks, who beat the Boston Celtics 138-134 (OT) in their opener.
This is a Knicks team that was one of the most improved in the NBA last year and should build on that with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go with Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Obi Toppin, Derrick Rose and company. Fournier had 32 points against the Celtics.
The Knicks are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall. Orlando is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Magic are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs. Take the Knicks Friday.
|10-22-21||Memphis -2 v. Central Florida||Top||7-24||Loss||-110||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* Memphis/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis -2
The UCF Knights are an absolute mess since losing QB Dillon Gabriel. They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Even in their lone win during this stretch they beat a bad ECU team 20-16 at home and were outgained in the game.
The Knights also lost by 35 at Cincinnati last week. They were upset by Navy as 14.5-point favorites and outgained by 80 yards by the Midshipmen. They were also outgained by 81 yards in their loss to Louisville.
Memphis has some impressive showings coming into this one. They deserved to beat Tulsa on the road but lost despite gaining 614 yards and outgaining the Golden Hurricane by 198 yards. They beat Navy by 18 last time out and outgained them by 174 yards, the same Navy team that upset UCF and outgained them by 80 yards.
The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games. The Knights are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall. UCF is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. The Knights are 0-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Bet Memphis Friday.
|10-21-21||Broncos v. Browns OVER 40.5||14-17||Loss||-115||11 h 16 m||Show|
15* Broncos/Browns NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 40.5
This is a very low total for any NFL game. But it's definitely low considering the circumstances with the short week that always favors the offenses with less time to prepare. And the fact that these teams aren't familiar with one another being a non-divisional game.
I know both teams have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, especially the Browns on offense. But I think Case Keenum isn't that much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, especially the Mayfield we saw last week on a bum shoulder.
Cleveland's defense is terrible and tired. The Browns gave up 47 points and 493 yards to the Chargers two weeks ago and another 37 points to the Cardinals last week. The Broncos haven't been much better of late defensively. They gave up 27 points and 391 yards to the Steelers two weeks ago and 34 points and 446 yards to the Raiders last week.
The OVER is 4-1 in Browns last five home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Browns last six against AFC opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-21-21||Bucks v. Heat +3||95-137||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3
The Miami Heat are loaded this season. They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson. Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.
Miami wants revenge from getting swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs last year. They obviously don't have to wait long to get it by hosting the Bucks in the opener. This is a game I fully expect them to win outright. The Bucks have four key guys out to injury. Take the Heat Thursday.
|10-21-21||Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7||Top||38-9||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* College Football Thursday No-Brainer on Charlotte +7
The Charlotte 49ers are 4-2 this season with their only losses both coming on the road to Georgia State and Illinois. They beat Duke at home and are 3-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game. I like the value we are getting with the 49ers as 7-point home dogs to Florida Atlantic here.
FAU is 3-3 this season with all three wins coming at home against weak competition in Georgia Southern, Fordham and Florida International. The Owls are 0-3 on the road and losing by 20.6 points per game. They are only scoring 11.7 points per game on the highway.
Last year FAU beat Charlotte 21-17 at home despite getting outgained 396 to 315, or by 81 yards. I like the 49ers' chances of getting revenge here with the outright upset, but there's certainly value in taking the 7 points.
The 49ers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. The Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Charlotte Thursday.
|10-20-21||Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies||121-132||Loss||-103||9 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are flying under the radar to open the season. They have Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland leftover from last year. And they added Lauri Markkanen from the Bulls and drafted Evan Mobley with the No. 3 overall pick.
The Memphis Grizzlies are getting a lot of hype this season after making the playoffs last year. They bring back JA Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr, but they are without Dillon Brooks to start the season and the trade of Jonas Valuncias for Steven Adams is a downgrade for them. This number is too high for the opener. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Braves v. Dodgers -211||9-2||Loss||-211||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -211
The Los Angeles Dodgers have all the momentum now after coming back from a 5-2 deficit in the 8th inning to save their season with a 6-5 victory in Game 3. I'll come back with them in Game 4 tonight as they have a big advantage on the mound and all the momentum.
Julio Urias is for sure starting for the Dodgers. He is 21-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in 33 starts this season. He is 7-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 14 home starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in his last three starts.
Urias owns the Braves, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in three career starts against them. He'll likely be opposed by Huascar Ynoa, who is 1-3 with a 5.62 ERA in eight road starts, including 0-1 with an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts overall.
The Dodgers are 21-3 in Urias' 24 starts as a favorite of -150 or more this season. That's why I'm willing to lay the -211 here with Urias and Los Angeles. Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Coastal Carolina -4 v. Appalachian State||Top||27-30||Loss||-110||31 h 29 m||Show|
20* Coastal Carolina/Appalachian State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina -4
Coastal Carolina is even better than they were last year, which is saying something. They returned basically everyone with 19 starters back and their talent has shown with a 6-0 start this season that has seen them win those six games by an average of 33.8 points per game.
The Chanticleers boast an offense that is putting up 48.8 points per game and 552.3 yards per game. Grayson McCall is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 79.8% of his passes for 1,478 yards with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores. Coastal Carolina's defense only gives up 15.0 points per game and 281.8 yards per game.
Appalachian State is finally down a little this season. The Mountaineers are 4-2 and were fortunate to come from behind to beat Marshall. They hung tough against an overrated Miami team. But their 13-41 loss last week to Louisiana-Lafayette was a disaster. They turned the ball over four times and have had at least one turnover in all six games. They were held to 211 yards and outgained by 244 yards by the Rajin' Cajuns.
Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 34-23 at home last year. And this Coastal Carolina team is better than last year's version, while the Mountaineers aren't as good as they were last year. The Mountaineers have three running backs on the injury report, which is putting a lot of pressure on QB Chase Brice to make plays. He has an 8-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season. I'll take McCall over Brice all day.
The scheduling spot favors the Chanticleers, too. They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are basically on normal rest after losing to Louisiana-Lafayette last Tuesday.
Coastal Carolina is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The Chanticleers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Coastal Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Appalachian State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference games. Bet Coastal Carolina Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Pacers v. Hornets -1||122-123||Push||0||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1
I like this Charlotte Hornets team. They have LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges healthy to start the season. They added Kelly Oubre Jr and drafted James Bouknight and Kai Jones. They are fully healthy to start the season.
The Pacers will be a great 'bet on' team once they get healthy. But they aren't healthy to start the season. They are missing Caris LeVert and TJ Warren. Both Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holidcay are questionable, and Malcolm Brogdon is already dealing with a shoulder injury.
The Hornets want revenge from a 117-144 road loss to the Pacers in the play-in game last year. They don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Pacers on opening night. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|10-19-21||Warriors v. Lakers -3.5||Top||121-114||Loss||-102||12 h 53 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles -3.5
The Los Angeles Lakers made a big move this offseason to bring in Russell Westbrook to play alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. This might be the best Big 3 we've ever seen. And all three are healthy to start the season to we get to see them in action on opening night.
With those three, the Lakers have six potential future Hall of Famers when you include Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Rajon Rondo. They added shooting as well with Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk and Kendrick Nunn. Ellington will be out, but Monk is expected to play and Nunn is questionable.
The Golden State Warriors open the season missing two of their best players again in Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. Stephen Curry did a great job last year of getting the Warriors into the playoffs. But he'll have to shoulder too much of the load again to start the season.
The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|10-19-21||Braves v. Dodgers -174||Top||5-6||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Dodgers -174
The Los Angeles Dodgers are down 0-2 and pretty much in a must-win here tonight. I expect them to get the job done and get back in this series behind elite starter Walker Buehler.
Buehler has been dominant again this season at 16-5 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 35 starts. He has been at his best at home, going 11-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 20 starts. Buehler has never lost to the Braves, going 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Charlie Morton has been solid at 14-7 with a 3.32 ERA in 35 starts this season, but he's not on Buehler's level. Morton is 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers as well.
The Dodgers are 40-13 in their last 53 home games. Los Angeles is 45-15 in its last 60 games overall. The Dodgers are 40-18 in the last 58 meetings. Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.
|10-18-21||Bills v. Titans +5.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||145 h 42 m||Show|
20* Bills/Titans ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +5.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills. They are getting massive respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories.
The Bills are coming off a 38-20 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That was a huge revenge game for them after losing twice to the Chiefs last season, including getting eliminated by them in the playoffs. Now they are fat and happy and feeling good about themselves, making them ripe for the picking. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Titans as they were the Chiefs.
The Titans have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the NFL year after year. That was on display last year when they beat the Bills 42-16 at home as 3-point underdogs. Now they are catching 5.5 points at home in the rematch.
The Bills have been forcing turnovers at an alarming rate, which is unsustainable. They have forced three or more turnovers in four consecutive games and 15 turnovers overall in those four games. Tennessee isn't a team that turns it over much as they are a run-heavy team, and Ryan Tannehill does a good job of taking care of the ball. They have only committed seven turnovers in five games this season.
Plays against favorites (Buffalo) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Monday games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Titans Monday.
|10-18-21||Astros +108 v. Red Sox||3-12||Loss||-100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Astros/Red Sox Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +108
Eduardo Rodriquez and the Boston Red Sox should not be favored in Game 3 tonight. Rodriquez is 4-4 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. Rodriquez is 1-3 with an 8.52 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in six career starts against Houston. He has faced the Astros twice this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.
Jose Urquidy is 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He is 4-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 10 road starts. Urquidy is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in one career start against the Red Sox. That came on May 31st this season when he allowed just one earned run with 9 K's in 6 innings of an 11-2 victory. Bet the Astros Monday.
|10-17-21||Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves||4-5||Loss||-100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* Dodgers/Braves Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1.5 (+101) I expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to bounce back from a Game 1 loss with a blowout victory in Game 2. They have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Max Scherzer over Ian Anderson. Scherzer had a Cy Young season at 15-5 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 32 starts this season. Ian Anderson is 10-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 25 starts this season. One of those starts came against the Dodgers when he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers are 45-14 in their last 59 games overall. Los Angeles is 40-19 in the last 59 meetings. The Dodgers are 14-1 in Scherzer's last 15 starts. The only game they lost was a 1-0 setback against the Giants last series. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots +4||Top||35-29||Loss||-107||117 h 3 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Patriots Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New England +4
It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys. They are the only remaining unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0 ATS this season. They have won three straight home games against mediocre teams coming in.
The Cowboys haven't fared as well on the road. They were fortunate to beat the Chargers 20-17 as the refs basically handed them that victory. And they lost to the Bucs on the road in the opener despite forcing four turnovers. And their turnover and injury luck has been unbelievable this year. Players on opposing teams keep going down mid-game, and they have already forced 12 turnovers and at least two turnovers in every game, which is unsustainable.
The Patriots are just 2-3 this season and thus it's time to 'buy low' on them. Two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points. The other was a misleading 13-28 loss to the Saints in which they were -3 in turnovers and outgained the Saints by 48 yards. Keep in mind they were last seen at home nearly upsetting the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs, hitting the upright on a potential game-winning field goal in a 17-19 loss.
Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. They have an elite offense at 6.7 yards per play, but a terrible defense giving up 6.5 yards per play. To compare, the Patriots have an elite defense in giving up 5.3 yards per play. And Mac Jones is primed to have one of his best games of the season against this Dallas defense.
Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs of 7 points or fewer. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. New England is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog overall. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|10-17-21||Cardinals v. Browns -2.5||Top||37-14||Loss||-115||125 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns -2.5
The Arizona Cardinals are overvalued due to being the last remaining team in the NFL at 5-0. We'll 'sell high' on them this week. They should have lost to the Vikings and they should have lost to the 49ers based on the numbers in the 49ers games and the missed kicks by the Vikings. So they really should be 3-2.
Cleveland is very close to being the 5-0 team. Their only two losses both came on the road to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and Chargers. They blew a 29-20 4th quarter lead to the Chiefs and a 27-13 3rd quarter lead to the Chargers. In fact, they became the 1st team in NFL history to lose a game when scoring 40 points and having more than 500 yards of offense in that Chargers defeat.
The Browns are 2-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.0 points per game and outgaining them by 212 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by 118.8 yards per game on the season. They are outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense. To compare, Arizona is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.
The matchup is a great one for this Cleveland offense. They average 188 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. Well, Arizona gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. And keep in mind Kyler Murray suffered an arm injury against the 49ers last week and they managed just 17 points as the offense looked out of sync all game. He isn't 100% coming into this one.
Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NFC opponents. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. They will suffer their first loss of the season to Cleveland in this one. Take the Browns Sunday.
|10-17-21||Vikings v. Panthers -1||Top||34-28||Loss||-110||123 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. This is a 'circle the wagons' game as they are looking at is as a must-win at home with their next two games coming on the road. We'll get one of their best efforts of the season.
That should be good enough to win and cover here as a 1-point home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings. This is a Vikings team that is just 2-3 this season with one of its wins coming over the Lions, and the other coming against a Seahawks team that is clearly not as good as everyone thought coming into the season. And they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Lions.
The Panthers should be 4-1 instead of 3-2. They deserved to lose at Dallas, which is proving to be one of the best teams in the NFL. But they blew a late lead to the Eagles last week in a game they were in control throughout. And they dominated their first three games of the season, outscoring the Jets, Saints and Texans by a combined score of 69-30.
The Panthers have the numbers of an elite team. They are outgaining opponents by 107 yards per game on the season behind a defense that is giving up just 256 yards per game. And the offense is improved under Sam Darnold and offensive mastermind Joe Brady calling the plays.
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game at home. Minnesota is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Currently as of this writing, Minnesota is a 1-point favorite, and the Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|10-17-21||Texans +10 v. Colts||3-31||Loss||-110||114 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +10
The Houston Texans impressed me last week in their 22-25 home loss to the New England Patriots as 8-point underdogs. They actually outgained the Patriots in the game, but missed kicks cost them the win. Davis Mills had his best game of the season, completing 21 of 29 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and I expect him to build off of that performance.
The Indianapolis Colts cannot be trusted as 10-point favorites here. They are 1-4 on the season with their lone win coming against the hapless Miami Dolphins. And the spot is a terrible one for the Colts. They blew a 22-3 lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, eventually losing 25-31 (OT).
It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after they did almost everything right in that game to win. Carson Wentz finally played to his potential, but it still wasn't enough. And now they are on a short week after an overtime game, so they won't be fully recovered in time for the Texans. And the injuries are mounting up for the Colts with 12 players out and another 6 questionable.
This has been a very closely-contested division rivalry. In fact, 14 of the last 15 meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Texans pertaining to this 10-point spread. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take the Texans Sunday.
|10-16-21||Arizona State v. Utah +1||Top||21-35||Win||100||71 h 41 m||Show|
20* Arizona State/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +1
The Utah Utes are in a great spot this week against Arizona State. They had a bye prior to beating USC 42-26 on the road in upset fashion last week. So they are still fresh and ready to go here with Arizona State coming to Salt Lake City in a game that may very well decide the Pac-12 South.
The Utes have been better off since QB Charlie Brewers left the team. The distraction is gone, and that showed in that performance against USC last week. And Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially in a night game with kickoff set for 10:00 EST.
Arizona State is getting too much respect now after three straight wins and covers against Colorado, UCLA and Stanford. No question this is a good Arizona State team, but they are not better than Utah, and this line would indicate that they are. Home-field advantage isn't being factored into this line enough with the Utes being underdogs. And fatigue for ASU isn't being factored in enough as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.
The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs. The Sun Devils are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites. Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a conference win. The Utes always get better as the season goes along under Kyle Whittingham. Bet Utah Saturday.
|10-16-21||UCLA v. Washington UNDER 55.5||24-17||Win||100||57 h 55 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UCLA/Washington UNDER 55.5
Washington is a dead nuts UNDER team this season. They are 4-1 UNDER in their five games this year. They have a terrible offense that averages just 24.8 points per game, 375.2 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.
But the Huskies always have a great defense, and that is the case again this season. They are holding opponents to 19.6 points per game, 326.8 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 8.3 points per game, 55 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.
UCLA's offense is run-first as they average 45 rushing attempts compared to 24 passing attempts. That should held keep the clock moving. Dorian-Thompson Robinson is an inaccurate quarterback who is better with his legs than he is with his arm. I just really see points hard to come by in this one. UCLA's defense is above average as they give up 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Bruins last four vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 16-6 in Huskies last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games following a loss. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-16-21||Red Sox v. Astros -109||9-5||Loss||-109||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Astros Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -109
The Houston Astros got their bats going against the Chicago White Sox last series. They scored 6 or more runs in every game and 31 runs total in four games against a very good Chicago staff. The Astros rank 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in average and 2nd in OPS in all of baseball this season.
They showed some resiliency coming back from a 3-1 deficit late in Game 1 to win 5-4 over the Red Sox. Now I expect them to win Game 2 behind Luis Garcia. He is 6-4 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. He faced the Red Sox once this year, allowing just one earned run in 7 innings of a 5-1 victory on June 1st at home.
Nathan Eovaldi has been great at home for the Red Sox, but it has been a different story on the road. Eovaldi is 5-5 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. He faced the Astros once this year, allowing 5 earned runs and 14 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-3 loss.
This line is too low at basically even money due to bettors following the zig zag theory. The Astros should be much bigger favorites. The Red Sox are 5-14 in their last 19 games as road underdogs. Boston is 6-16 in its last 22 games as a dog overall. Houston is 45-21 in its last 66 home games. The Astros are 71-29 in their last 100 home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll with the Astros Saturday.
|10-16-21||Purdue +12 v. Iowa||Top||24-7||Win||100||89 h 28 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +12
The Purdue Boilermakers have had two weeks to get ready for the Iowa Hawkeyes. They had a bye last week following their loss to Minnesota. They have been competitive in every game this season, and they always play Iowa tough.
Indeed, the Boilermakers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawkeyes. All four meetings were decided by 9 points or less, including the 6-point loss they suffered in their only defeat as 17.5-point dogs. They pulled two outright upsets and covered as 1.5-point favorites.
Iowa is in a huge letdown spot after its 23-20 win over Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes never would have won that game if Penn State starting QB Sean Clifford didn't get injured. They blew a 17-3 lead. Backup Tre'Quan Roberson was awful in his place, throwing for just 34 yards on 21 attempts with two interceptions.
The Boilermakers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. Purdue is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. Jeff Brohm is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as a head coach. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|10-16-21||Ball State -1 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||38-31||Win||100||63 h 41 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State -1
Ball State won the MAC last year and brought back 20 starters including the best QB in the MAC in Drew Plitt. So it was surprising to see them start 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. But that start has had them undervalued since, and they remain undervalued here as only 1-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the MAC in Eastern Michigan.
Two weeks ago Ball State upset a very good Army team 28-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Last week Ball State went on the road and crushed Western Michigan 45-20 as 12.5-point dogs. And now they are right back in the MAC title race and won't be overlooking Eastern Michigan here. Look for them to keep their momentum rolling.
Eastern Michigan is overvalued right now due to a 4-2 start with its four wins all coming against suspect competition in St. Francis PA, UMass, Texas State and Miami (Ohio). The losses came to Wisconsin by 27 and Northern Illinois by 7. They were outgained by 128 yards last time out and were fortunate to beat Miami Ohio 13-12. They were outgained by 426 yards by Wisconsin, and by 12 yards against UMass.
The Cardinals have played the much tougher schedule between these teams as well. Ball State is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. Eastern Michigan is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games off a home win. The Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 7-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records over the last two seasons. Take Ball State Saturday.
|10-16-21||Tulsa v. South Florida +8.5||32-31||Win||100||48 h 25 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +8.5
South Florida has played a brutal schedule early and is better than its 1-4 record would indicate. The four losses came to NC State, Florida, BYU and SMU which are four teams ranked inside the Top 25. Three losses came on the road, and the last two against BYU and SMU were competitive late in the 2nd half.
Now South Florida comes off its bye week fresh and ready to get that first AAC victory Saturday against Tulsa. The Bulls have found their quarterback in Timmy Mcclain, who is completing 58.7% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt. He has also rushed for 158 yards as a dual threat.
Tulsa is 2-4 this season with its only wins both coming at home over Arkansas State by 7 and Memphis by 6. So the Golden Hurricane haven't won a game by more than 7 points this season. Now they are a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week after a fortunate 35-29 shootout win over Memphis last week. They gave up 614 total yards to Memphis and were outgained by 198 yards, but were +3 in turnovers to save the day.
The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. South Florida is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 40 points last game. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. This is a great spot for the Bulls and they are live underdogs in this one. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|10-15-21||Red Sox v. Astros -133||4-5||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Astros Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -133
The Houston Astros got their bats going against the Chicago White Sox last series. They scored 6 or more runs in every game and 31 runs total in four games against a very good Chicago staff. Now they are up against a much weaker Boston Red Sox staff in this series. The Astros rank 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in average and 2nd in OPS in all of baseball this season.
Houston should stay hot at the plate against Chris Sale tonight. Sale allowed 5 earned runs in one inning against the Rays in his lone start last series. He has posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 10 starts this season.
Framber Valdez is 11-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.266 WHIP In 23 starts this season for the Astros. He has faced the Red Sox twice this season, going 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.837 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 12 base runners in 14 1/3 innings with 18 K's.
The Red Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 games as road underdogs. Boston is 6-15 in its last 21 games as a dog overall. Houston is 44-21 in its last 65 home games. The Astros are 70-29 in their last 99 home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. Houston is 57-19 in its last 76 games following an off day. Take the Astros Friday.
|10-15-21||Marshall v. North Texas OVER 66||Top||49-21||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
20* College Football TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marshall/North Texas OVER 66
This game between Marshall and North Texas has all the makings of a shootout Friday night. These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the country as North Texas averages 82 plays per game while Marshall averages 77 plays per game.
Marshall has been impressive on offense this season in averaging 34.8 points and 515.2 yards per game to go along with 6.7 yards per play. North Texas doesn't have great season-long numbers offensively, but they just scored 35 points against an SEC opponent in Missouri and gave up 48. Their defense has been atrocious in allowing 32.2 points per game on the season. Marshall gave up 42 to ECU, 31 to App State and 34 to Middle Tennessee in three of its last four games coming in.
The OVER is 15-6 in Thundering Herd last 21 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 5-1 in Marshall's last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The OVER is 4-1 in Mean Green last five games as home underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in North Texas' last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles +7||28-22||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Eagles NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +7
The Philadelphia Eagles have played a brutal schedule thus far of Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City and Carolina. It's safe to say they are battle-tested and ready for this challenge against the Tampa Bay Bucs tonight.
The Eagles have put up tremendous numbers against that brutal schedule, and they are a grossly undervalued team right now. They are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 5.2 yards per play on defense against teams that normally averaged 6.0 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL.
The Bucs give up 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally averaged 5.7 yards per play, so they have a below-average defense this year. A big reason for that is they are missing several key players in the secondary. They are also without LB Lavonte David. Offensively, both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are questionable, and Tom Brady is battling an injured thumb.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bucs off their 45-17 home win over the hapless Miami Dolphins last week. The Bucs haven't fared nearly as well on the road. They lost 24-34 to the Rams and barely escaped with a 19-17 win at New England in their two road games this season.
Plays against favorites (Tampa Bay) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|10-14-21||Navy +10.5 v. Memphis||Top||17-35||Loss||-100||21 h 6 m||Show|
20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +10.5
The Navy Midshipmen are improving rapidly this season. After blowout losses to Marshall and Air Force to start the season, they have since gone 3-0 ATS with three straight games against very good competition decided by 8 points or less.
They lost by 8 at Houston as 20-point dogs, beat UCF outright by 4 as 14.5-point dogs and only lost by 7 to SMU as 13.5-point home dogs. Now they are catching double-digits against a Memphis squad that is worse than all three of those teams.
Memphis is 3-3 this season with two of its wins coming by 5 and 2 points over Arkansas State and Mississippi State, respectively. Their only blowout win came against FCS Nicholls State 42-17 in the opener. They have lost three straight games with upset losses to UTSA and Temple, as well as a road loss to Tulsa as a 3-point dog.
Memphis gave up 235 rushing yards to Tulsa, 157 to Temple and 205 to UTSA in each of its last three losses. It isn't going to get any easier here against Navy, which will test their run defense. The Midshipmen are averaging 220 rushing yards per game this season.
This Navy defense has been impressive, too. The Midshipmen are holding opponents to 361 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 460 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. So they are holding opponents to nearly 100 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages.
Navy is the fresher team having played just five games while Memphis has played six games. While the Midshipmen had a bye week prior to Week 4, the Tigers have not had a bye week. They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here and on a short week at that with this game behind played on a Thursday. Navy's physicality will takes its toll and wear out Memphis on both sides of the football.
Navy is 63-29 ATS in its last 92 games as a road underdog. The Midshipmen are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game. Ryan Silverfield is 2-9 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Memphis. Sliverfield is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more yards per game in the last three games as the coach of the Tigers. Memphis is 1-7 ATS in its last eight conference games. The Midshipmen are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Memphis is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite against FBS competition. Take Navy Thursday.
|10-12-21||Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57||Top||13-41||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
20* Appalachian State/Louisiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 57
Appalachian State and Louisiana are very familiar with one another. They seem to play in the Sun Belt Championship every year. In fact, they have met in the title game in four consecutive seasons now, sometimes playing each other twice. They have played five times in the past three seasons alone.
That familiarity definitely favors defenses and low-scoring games. That has been the case in this series with the exception of one game. Louisiana and Appalachian State have combined for 49 or fewer points in four of their five meetings over the last three seasons. They have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.
Louisiana is 4-1 UNDER this season with combined scores of 56 or fewer points in four of their five games. Appalachian State has seen 54 or fewer combined points in three of their five games this season. And both teams have very good defenses, especially Appalachian State.
Appalachian State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 road games after a cover as a double-digit favorite. The UNDER is 10-1 in Louisiana's last 11 home games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Louisiana's last eight home games vs. conference opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-12-21||Astros v. White Sox -108||Top||10-1||Loss||-108||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -108
The Chicago White Sox improved to 70-32 in their last 102 home games with their 12-6 victory over the Houston Astros in Game 3 to stave off elimination. Look for them to force a Game 5 today with another win behind Carlos Rodon.
Rodon is 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 11 home starts. He has owned the Astros, going 2-0 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Rodon is 10-1 against the money line as a favorite of -100 to -150 this season. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 64-28 in its last 92 games as a home favorite. Take the White Sox Tuesday.
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens -7||Top||25-31||Loss||-100||130 h 48 m||Show|
20* Colts/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
The Baltimore Ravens have found their groove since an opening loss to the Raiders. They have won three straight since including an upset victory over the Chiefs and a 23-7 road win at Denver. Now they will be playing just their 2nd home game of the season, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. They should get back to being the same old Ravens moving forward.
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess due to all their injuries. They are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a backup QB last week. I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because of that victory.
The Colts had previously lost their first three games to start the season. They lost 16-28 to the Seahawks, 24-27 to the Rams and 16-25 to the Titans. They were outgained in all three games, and this is probably going to be their stiffest test of the season on the road at the Ravens.
Baltimore has the numbers to match their 3-1 record. They outgained the Chiefs by 76 yards and had 481 yards of offense, they outgained the Lions by 102 yards and had 387 yards of offense, and they outgained the Broncos by 152 yards behind 406 yards of offense.
Frank Reich is 0-6 ATS vs. AFC North opponents as the coach of the Colts. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. They seem to just beat up on bad teams, and that should be the case here under the lights of Monday Night Football. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|10-11-21||Rays +102 v. Red Sox||5-6||Loss||-100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +102
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays to stave off elimination in Game 4 tonight. The main reason for this pick is fading Boston's Eduardo Rodriquez.
Rodriquez is 12-9 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 32 starts this season. He is 4-4 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 13 home starts. Rodriquez is 2-5 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay. He has allowed 8 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them this season.
The Rays are 54-26 in their last 80 games overall. Tampa Bay is 17-7 in its last 24 meetings in Boston. Roll with the Rays Monday.
|10-10-21||Giants +7 v. Cowboys||20-44||Loss||-107||102 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +7
The Dallas Cowboys are the only remaining team that is unbeaten ATS, going 4-0 ATS through their first four games. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys now as 7-point home favorites over the division rival New York Giants.
While the Cowboys have an elite offense, their defense isn't nearly as good as it is getting credit for. They simply can't keep forcing turnovers at this rate. They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games. But they rank 30th in the NFL in giving up 6.4 yards per play this season.
The Giants have a sneaky good offense and a decent defense, giving up 5.9 yards per play. The Giants are 8th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play, barely behind Dallas' 6.4 per play in 7th place. These teams are a lot closer than this line would indicate.
The Giants were coming off two losses to the Falcons and Washington by a combined 4 points before showing their resiliency last week, winning 27-21 at New Orleans. They had 485 total yards against a very good Saints defense, and Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career this season. He is capable of matching the Cowboys score for score in this one.
The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. New York is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog. Joe Judge is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. NFC opponents as the coach of New York. Roll with the Giants Sunday.
|10-10-21||Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||4-6||Loss||-100||6 h 17 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Red Sox UNDER 8.5
This has the makings of a pitcher's duel between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox in Game 3 tonight. I like what I've seen from both starting pitchers, and I expect the bullpens to shut each other down.
Nathan Eovaldi is 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 20 home starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run in 11 1/3 innings against the Yankees and Orioles. Eovaldi 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA In his last two starts against the Rays, allowing one earned run and nine base runners in 14 innings with 18 K's.
Drew Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Rays, allowing just 9 earned runs, 7 walks and 2 homers in 42 innings. Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in three starts against the Red Sox this season, allowing just 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 14 innings.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Rays last eight games as underdogs. The UNDER is 7-2 in Rays last nine games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games as favorites. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Broncos v. Steelers -1||Top||19-27||Win||100||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode now after a 1-3 start. Expect their best effort of the season when they host the Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon with their season essentially on the line. It should be enough to win and cover here as a short home favorite.
The Steelers were hampered by injuries in their losses to the Raiders and Bengals, who have both turned out to be very good teams. Their other loss came on the road against the Packers, which is expected. But remember, they upset the Bills in Week 1, so we know what they are capable of. Their four games have come against teams that are a combined 12-4 this season, so they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. And they are getting healthier by the week.
It's time to fade the Denver Broncos, who are 3-1 this season while benefitting from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Their three wins came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. They got put in their place last week in a 7-23 home loss to the Ravens as Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
Bridgewater is questionable to return this week, and with this pick it doesn't really matter who starts for them, though getting Drew Lock again would be an added bonus. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Broncos. They could be without as many as nine starters this week, who are either out, doubtful or questionable.
Mike Tomlin is 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. It's time to 'buy low' on the Steelers this week as you will probably never get better value with them than you are here at home against the Broncos. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-10-21||Packers v. Bengals +3||25-22||Push||0||99 h 34 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bengals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are greatly improved this season. They are off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming 20-17 on the road to the Chicago Bears in a game in which they held the Bears to just 206 total yards and were -3 in turnovers.
The Bengals have beaten the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars. Now they have extra time to prepare after beating the Jaguars last Thursday. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 18.8 points and 323.0 yards per game. And their offense is loaded with playmakers surrounding the underrated Joe Burrow, who continues to impress week after week.
The Packers are injury-ravaged right now, which is the biggest reason we are fading them. They are without LB Za'Darius Smith, T David Bakhtiari, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They have five other starters questionable in LB Preston Smith, CB Jaire Alexander, G Elgton Jenkins, LB Krys Barnes and CB Kevin King. Their issues at CB will particularly be a problem against Burrow and company.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-10-21||Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45||Top||21-18||Loss||-104||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Panthers OVER 45
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly an OVER team. They just combined for 62 points with the Dallas Cowboys and 72 points with the Kansas City Chiefs the last two weeks. They won't have any problem combining for 45-plus points with the Carolina Panthers this week.
The Eagles have an electric offense with Jalen Hurts and a ton of young skill talent. They are averaging 397.5 yards per game. But their defense has some significant injuries, and as a result they are giving up 26.5 PPG. This is the worst defense the Eagles have had in years.
The Panthers are coming alive in Joe Brady's offense in his second season as coordinator. They are averaging 387.5 yards per game this season behind the improved play of Sam Darnold, who already has five rushing touchdowns. He is completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt.
Carolina's defense isn't as good as the season-long numbers would suggest. They played three of the worst offenses in the NFL to start the season in the Jets, Saints and Texans. But they met their match last week in a 28-36 loss to the Cowboys in a game that saw 64 combined points.
The OVER is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games as road underdogs. The OVER is 33-16 in Eagles last 49 road games overall. The OVER is 34-17 in Panthers last 51 games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Saints v. Washington Football Team +2||33-22||Loss||-103||99 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +2
The New Orleans Saints are way overrated this season. They should not be road favorites over the Washington Football Team Sunday. This is a game I expect Washington to win outright, but we'll take the +2 for some insurance.
New Orleans is averaging just 276.8 yards per game on offense and giving up 349.3 yards per game on defense. They are getting outgained by nearly 75 yards per game. And it's not like they have played that difficult of a schedule. They can't figure out who their quarterback is as they are dealing with two below-average guys in Winston and Hill, and they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball.
Washington gutted out a 34-30 win in Atlanta last week despite missing two extra points and a two-point conversion chasing those two missed extra points. That's the type of win that will bring this team together, and Taylor Heineke is showing he's not a downgrade at all at quarterback. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 87 yards and a score as a dual-threat.
Ron Rivera is 49-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road as a head coach. Rivera is 10-2 ATS vs. teams who commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. The Football Team is 8-1 in their last nine games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. The Football Team is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Football Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|10-09-21||New Mexico State +30.5 v. Nevada||Top||28-55||Win||100||55 h 38 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +30.5
Nevada is in a big letdown spot this week. They are coming off an upset win over Boise State on the road last week. But they were coming off a bye, so that was a good spot for them. And the Broncos already have three losses this season and are nowhere near the program they used to be.
Now Nevada steps outside the conference to take on lowly New Mexico State. The Wolf Pack probably feel like they just have to show up to win this game. But the Aggies have been feisty since a bad loss to UTEP to open the season. And they should be 'all in' here knowing they have a bye on deck to rest next week.
New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game, not once losing by more than 20 points. They lost by 18 at San Diego State as 31.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Aztecs by 11 yards. They lost by 9 to New Mexico as 19.5-point dogs. They beat South Carolina State 43-35. They lost by 20 as 17-point dogs at Hawaii. And last week was their most impressive performance yet, losing by just 6 at San Jose State as 26-point dogs.
The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Mountain West opponents. Nevada is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Take New Mexico State Saturday.
|10-09-21||Braves +114 v. Brewers||3-0||Win||114||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +114
The Atlanta Braves are 12-3 in their last 15 games overall. They will bounce back from a Game 1 loss to the Brewers with a win in Game 2 behind Max Fried.
Fried is 14-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 28 starts this season. He is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.478 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts.
Fried is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in three career starts against the Brewers. He'll be opposed by Brandon Woodruff, who allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 loss to the Braves in his lone start against them this season.
The Braves are 12-1 in Fried's last 13 starts vs. a good team with a winning percentage from 54% to 62% on the season. Take the Braves Saturday.
|10-09-21||Penn State v. Iowa -1||20-23||Win||100||48 h 13 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -1
The Iowa Hawkeyes aren't getting the respect they deserve again this week as only 1-point home favorites over Penn State. They are the better football team, they are at home, and it will be the toughest atmosphere of the season that the Nittany Lions have faced yet.
Penn State has been doing all of its damage at home. The Nittany Lions have played four straight home games since their 16-10 win at Wisconsin in the opener. And it turns out Wisconsin isn't very good. And the Nittany Lions were outgained by 62 yards by the Badgers in that game and very fortunate to win with their red zone INT's.
Iowa is 11-0 in its last 11 games overall with 10 wins by double-digits. Maybe this team will finally get the respect they deserve after beating Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.
Plays on home teams (Iowa) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off five or more consecutive wins are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Iowa is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games as a favorite of 4 points or fewer. James Franklin is 0-9 SU in true road games against Top 10 teams as a head coach. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|10-09-21||San Jose State v. Colorado State -2.5||Top||14-32||Win||100||48 h 13 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado State -2.5
The Colorado State Rams have been a completely different team in their last two games. They went on the road and upset Toledo 22-6 as 14.5-point underdogs. And they gave Iowa their toughest test of the season in a 14-24 road loss at 24-point dogs.
Now the Rams had last week off and have had two weeks to prepare for San Jose State. They faced a Spartans team that has been extremely disappointing this season. They lost by 23 at USC, failed to cover in a 4-point win at Hawaii, lost by 20 at Western Michigan, and only beat New Mexico State by 6 last week as 25.5-point favorites.
San Jose State could get QB Nick Starkel back this week as he is listed as questionable. But I like Colorado State either way in this spot. The Spartans are overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last year and should continue to be great fade material all season.
The Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. San Jose State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Colorado State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Colorado State Saturday.
|10-09-21||Georgia v. Auburn +15.5||34-10||Loss||-107||48 h 13 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +15.5
The stock couldn't be higher on Georgia right now after a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now that they will be playing their toughest test of the season on the road at Auburn this week.
Georgia has beaten up on teams at home with wins over UAB, South Carolina and Arkansas. Their only true road win came at Vanderbilt. So this will be by far their stiffest test of the season against an Auburn team that is 3-0 at home and winning by 40.7 points per game.
Auburn went on the road and nearly upset Penn State, another team that is currently ranked in the Top 5. So the Tigers have proven they can hang with the big boys. And they should not be more than two-touchdown underdogs to Georgia this week.
Auburn's defense is good enough to keep this game close. The Tigers are only giving up 16.2 points and 298.4 yards per game. Georgia's offense is good, but it's not good enough to hang a big number on this Auburn defense, which is what it's going to take to cover this big of a number.
Auburn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. very good defensive teams that give up 14 points per game or fewer. The Tigers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Auburn is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|10-09-21||Virginia v. Louisville -2.5||34-33||Loss||-110||48 h 43 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisville -2.5
The Louisville Cardinals have only lost to 2 of the best teams in the country in Ole Miss and Wake Forest. And both of those losses came on the road. They have been great at home with a 27-point win over Eastern Kentucky and an upset of UCF, while also upsetting Florida State on the road.
After two straight road game, the Cardinals are back home here Saturday hosting Virginia. Their offense is hitting on all cylinders with 501 yards against UCF and 522 yards against Wake Forest. They should torch a shaky Virginia defense that gave up 699 yards in a 39-59 loss at North Carolina and 473 more yards in a 17-37 home loss to Wake Forest to give them a common opponent with Louisville only losing 34-37 at Wake Forest.
I think Virginia is getting too much respect for its 30-28 upset win at Miami last time out. But the Hurricanes were without starting QB D'Eriq King in that game, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. This is going to be a much stiffer test for them against Malik Cunningham, who is completing 63.8% of his passes for 1,307 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and 10 scores.
Virginia is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Plays against all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Virginia) - with a poor turnover defense forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Louisville Saturday.
|10-09-21||Akron +15 v. Bowling Green||Top||35-20||Win||100||71 h 13 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Akron +15
It's time to 'sell high' on the Bowling Green Falcons. They are 5-0 ATS this season and the last remaining unbeaten team ATS. Now they are being asked to lay 15 points to Akron just a couple weeks after being a 1-point favorite over FCS Murray State. They are clearly overvalued right now.
Everyone knows about Bowling Green's upset win over Minnesota as a 30.5-point underdog. So they automatically assume this team is good. But they also lost to South Alabama and Kent State, and lost to Tennessee by 32. Their only other win came against Murray State at home.
We'll 'buy low' on Akron, which is just 1-4 ATS this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them. Two of the losses came to Auburn and Ohio State. And they deserved to cover against the Buckeyes. They beat Bryant by 21 and lost to Temple by 21 and Ohio by 17. They can definitely stay within two touchdowns of Bowling Green this week.
Akron has found its quarterback. Demarcus Irons Jr. took over for Kato Nelson three games back and has given the offense life. He is completing 69.1% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio. But his dual-threat ability is what has been impressive. Irons has rushed for 251 yards and two scores as well.
Akron's problem defensively is stopping the run, but they face a Bowling Green team that can't run the football. The Falcons are only averaging 47 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry. Their offense is only averaging 277 yards per game overall and 4.4 yards per play. It's tough to trust them to cover this big of a number with that type of offense.
The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games. Bowling Green is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite. I think home-field advantage is being factored into this line too much as well as the Falcons won't have a big crowd for this early 12:00 EST start. Bet Akron Saturday.
|10-09-21||Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5||55-48||Loss||-113||45 h 43 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Texas Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are fortunate to be 5-0 this season despite playing an easy schedule. They have four wins by one score over Tulane (40-35), Nebraska (23-16), West Virginia (16-13) and Kansas State (37-31). They only outgained Tulane by 40 yards, Nebraska by 24 yards, WVU by 66 yards and were outgained by 28 yards by Kansas State.
Now the Sooners will meet their match against a Texas team that is the real deal and will be their stiffest competition yet. The Longhorns have been impressive in every game outside of their loss at Arkansas, and it turns out Arkansas is pretty good. They beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 20, beat Rice by 58, beat Texas Tech by 35 and handled their business in a 5-point win at TCU.
Texas wants to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this rivalry and will be extra motivated after losing in overtime to Oklahoma last season. This is the worst Oklahoma offense they've had in years, and the defense is not as good as everyone said it was going to be coming into the season. They are ripe for the picking this season and those four one-score wins have shown it.
Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|10-08-21||Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||3-52||Loss||-110||30 h 36 m||Show|
25* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +29.5
Even though this is a standalone game on a Friday night, the Cincinnati Bearcats are in a letdown spot. They are coming off a massive 24-13 win over Notre Dame last week. That followed up a comeback win over Indiana the previous week. And they have UCF on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot.
That was a bad spot for Notre Dame last week. They were facing their second straight team coming off a bye. They were a tired team. The Fighting Irish aren't very good either as they were life and death with both Toledo and Florida State, and they beat a Wisconsin team that is not as good as we all thought.
Temple has impressive me this season, opening 3-2 with an upset win as an 11-point underdog to Memphis last week. The only losses came to Rutgers and Boston College in games that were both much closer than the final scores. Rutgers only outgained them by 104 yards and they actually outgained Boston College by 24 yards.
Temple has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' here trying to upset this Top 5 team on their schedule in Cincinnati. And I think the Owls have what it takes defensively to stay within four touchdowns. They are only giving up 313 yards.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.
Cincinnati's numbers don't look like that of a Top 5 team. They are only gaining 38 more yards per game on offense than their opponents normally allow. They are only giving up 8 yards per game less on defense than their opponents normally average. They are built to win low-scoring, defensive games. So that makes it tough for them to cover these huge numbers.
Cincinnati hasn't won by more than 24 points against Temple in any of the last 22 meetings. That makes for a 22-0 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 29.5-point spread. Temple is actually 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Owls are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Temple Friday.