20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse +7

Clemson is out of the national title discussion already in September for the first time in a long time.  They lost 28-7 to Duke in the opener and 31-24 to Florida State last week.  That loss to Florida State is the dream crusher as they are out of not only the ACC title discussion now, but the national title discussion as well.  It's the kind of game that can beat a team twice.

Now they must go on the road and face an underrated Syracuse team that has had their number in recent years.  Syracuse is 4-0 this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  They are averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing just 10.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 33.5 points per game.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Clemson.  Four of those six meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  I love Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader, who is very similar to Duke QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 175 yards and rushed for 98 more against Clemson in the opener.  Schrader is completing 66.7% of his passes for 972 yards while averaging 9.0 per attempt, while also leading the team in rushing with 316 yards, 6.9 per carry and 6 TD on the ground.

Plays on home underdogs (Syracuse) - after four consecutive wins are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Orange are being disrespected here and I believe they should actually be favored, especially given the brutal spot for Clemson with their dreams crushed.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -2.5

The Akron Zips have quietly been one of the best covering teams in the country dating back to last season.  They have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They could easily have a much better straight up record than they do in those 13 games as they have gone 1-7 SU in one-score games during this stretch despite being a double-digit underdog in almost all of them.

Akron opened the season with a 21-24 loss at Temple as 9.5-point dogs and blew a double-digit lead in that game.  They beat Morgan State but failed to cover due to committing five turnovers.  They lost by 32 at Kentucky in a game they also deserved to cover as 26-point dogs, but gave up a late TD in that one with Kentucky clearly trying to cover the spread.

But no effort was more impressive for Akron this season than last week's 29-27 loss at Indiana in overtime as 16.5-point underdogs.  Akron actually outgained Indiana by nearly 200 yards in that game but committed three turnovers.  They also missed a potential game-winning field goal going into overtime.

QB DJ Irons is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He threw for 194 yards and rushed for 141 more and a pair of touchdowns on a very good Indiana defense last week.  Indiana had held Louisville to 21 points the week prior, and that's a Louisville team that put up 56 on Boston College and 39 on Georgia Tech.

Usually this would be the kind of loss that could beat a team twice.  But not Akron, especially since they have Buffalo coming to town this week.  They want revenge from a 23-22 loss to Buffalo as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale last year.  That's a game Buffalo had to win to make a bowl game, and Akron gave them all they wanted and should have won outright.  Buffalo scored with 1:15 left to steal a 1-point victory.

Now it's Buffalo that is one of the worst teams in college football this season.  Buffalo is now 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight regular season games.  The Bulls have opened 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS this season, and they were extremely fortunate to cover last week.  They lost by 21 at Wisconsin in the opener.  They were upset by Fordham at home as 22.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They were blasted by 28 at home by Liberty in Week 3.  And last week they lost by 7 at Louisiana-Lafayette, but they were down by 21 in the final minutes before getting an touchdown, and onside kick and another touchdown to make the final score look better than it really was.

Buffalo doesn't do anything well, especially defensively.  The Bulls are allowing 44.5 points per game, 512 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to Akron, which allows 27.3 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play and it's easy to see the Zips have the much better defense.  These teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but the Zips have played the much tougher schedule of opposing defenses with three road games already at Indiana, Kentucky and Temple.

Joe Moorhead has the Zips pointed in the right direction and this team believes they can challenge for a bowl game.  I'm worried the train is about to come off the rails for Maurice Lingquist in Buffalo as this team has very little to play for after an 0-4 start in which they haven't even been competitive in any game other than their lost to FCS Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite.

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more total combined points were scored are 73-28 (72.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Saturday.

15* Rangers/Mariners AL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

I expect both the Rangers and Mariners to get their bats going today.  I think since yesterday ended in a 3-2 pitcher's duel, this total has been set too low.  There's clear value on the OVER 7.5 runs tonight.

Bryan Woo is 4-5 with a 4.39 ERA in 17 starts for the Mariners this season.  Woo is 0-2 with a 20.26 ERA and 2.814 WHIP in two starts against the Rangers this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 1/3 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi is a shell of his former self since coming back from injury.  He is 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.  Eovaldi allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 9-8 win over Seattle in his last start on September 24th.

Texas is 16-2 OVER in its last 18 games after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Yankees/Royals OVER 9

There are expected to be double-digit wins blowing out to left tonight in Kansas City with temps in the 80's.  Conditions will be ripe for scoring runs and aiding us in cashing this OVER ticket, especially with these two gas cans on the mound.

Jordan Lyles is 5-17 with a 6.13 ERA in 30 starts for the Royals this season with a whopping 38 homers allowed.  Lyles allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Yankees in his lone start against them this season.

Carlos Rodon is 3-7 with a 5.74 ERA in 13 starts this season and 14 homers allowed in only 64 1/3 innings.  Rodon has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.

The OVER is 12-2 in Lyle's last 14 starts after allowing zero earned runs in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Louisville/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville -3

The Louisville Cardinals look like one of the most improved teams in the country under Jeff Brohm.  He is just a winner everywhere he has gone, and now he has his dream job coaching for the team he used to play for.  Louisville is rapidly improving since trailing Georgia Tech 28-13 at halftime in the opener.

The Cardinals stormed back for a 39-34 victory, and that win looks even better now after Georgia Tech gave Ole Miss all they could handle on the road while also upsetting Wake Forest on the road.  They beat Murray State 56-0, jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead on Indiana, which played Ohio State tough, and then crushed Boston College 56-28 last week.  That's a Boston College team that only lost by 2 to Florida State.

The key to Brohm's quick success was luring QB Jack Plummer from Cal to join him.  Plummer is completing 67% of his passes for 1,120 yards with a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 100 yards and another score.  He leads a Louisville offense that is averaging 43.0 points per game, 543 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play.  The defense is giving up just 19.0 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.6 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the country.

Compare that to NC State, which is averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Wolfpack are getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play despite facing a similar strength of schedule to Louisville.  The offense just hasn't been very good since losing QB Leary to Kentucky and replacing him with Brennan Armstrong, and this is one of the worst defenses of the Dave Doeren era.

The 24-14 win at UConn in the opener looks really bad after UConn lost 35-14 to Georgia State, was upset 24-17 by FIU, and got blasted 41-7 by Duke.  NC State then lost 45-24 at home to Notre Dame before topping lowly VMU 45-7.  And last weeks 24-21 win at 8-point favorites at Virginia was very concerning when you look at the box score.  

Virginia actually outgained NC State 384 to 319, or by 65 total yards.  Armstrong went 15-of-30 passing for 180 yards and rushed 15 times in a very physical game against his former team.  I question how much he has left in the tank on this short week against a Louisville team that made easy work against Boston College last week and should be fresh after resting starters in the 4th quarter.

NC State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Doeren is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of NC State.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference game.  Bet Louisville Friday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +2

The Green Bay Packers have had this game circled all offseason.  The Detroit Lions beat them in Week 18 last year to keep them out of the playoffs.  In fact, they swept the season series and have lost three consecutive games to the Lions overall.  It's safe to say they won't be lacking any motivation here Thursday night.

These short weeks really favor the home teams.  Green Bay has zero travel involved after beating the Saints at home Sunday to improve to 2-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road at Atlanta after blowing a 12-point lead.  The Packers have the rest and travel advantage as a result with the Lions having to fly in from Detroit on a short week.

The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in the opener on the road.  They haven't had Aaron Jones or Christian Watson either of the last two games, but both are expected to return.  That gives Jordan Love his two biggest playmakers on the field at the same time for the first time all season.  What he has done thus far without these two has been very impressive.  He has a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  I think Love is much better than he gets credit for.

This Green Bay defense also looks improved and is much healthier than the offense.  Plus, not only did Jones and Watson return to practice this week, but their top CB in Jaire Alexander returned to practice this week as well.  There's a good chance they get all three of these players back, which are three of the very best players on the entire roster.

Speaking of injuries, the Lions have a laundry list of them.  FB Cabinda and RG Vaitai and RT Nelson are out on offense, while LT Decker, LG Jackson and RB Montgomery are all questionable.  FS Joseph missed last game with a hip injury and is questionable to return this week.  This isn't a very good Detroit defense as it is, and that was evident when they gave up 37 points to Seattle two weeks ago.  I think they are being overvalued here as road favorites off their home win over the Falcons last week.

The Packers have clearly been undervalued this season and are getting no respect here once again as this line has flipped favorites.  In fact, the Packers have flipped from favorites to underdogs for three consecutive games now.  They were -1.5 to +3 against the Falcons and covered in a 1-point loss.  They were -2 to +1.5 against the Saints last week and covered in a 1-point win.  They improved to 3-0 ATS this season.  They went from -1.5 to +2 as of this writing in this game as well.

Green Bay is 28-4 SU in its last 32 home meetings with Detroit.  The Packers have arguably the best home-field advantage in the entire NFL, and that's not being factored enough into this line. This is the first time the Lions have been favored in Green Bay since 1986 when the Packers have had their starting QB healthy.  The Lions are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as road favorites.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* Temple/Tulsa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -3

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are in good hands with head coach Kevin Wilson.  He was the head coach at Indiana for six seasons and was Ohio State's offensive coordinator over the past six seasons.  That was a tremendous hire for the program, and he's going to turn this thing around sooner rather than later.

Tulsa has done a good job of getting to 2-2 thus far considering they were underdogs in three of their four games.  After opening with a 42-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Golden Hurricane faced two national title contenders in Washington and Oklahoma, and it went about as expected with blowout losses.  They then upset Northern Illinois 22-14 as 4-point road underdogs last week.

Now they host Temple, which has been extremely disappointing thus far.  They have played a much softer schedule than Tulsa to this point and are also 2-2.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 home win over Akron in the opener as 9.5-point favorites.  They were blasted 36-7 at Rutgers, which is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They blew out Norfolk State 41-9 as 31.5-point home favorites before getting blowing out 41-7 at home by Miami as 23-point dogs.

Tulsa beat Temple 27-16 as 13.5-point road favorites last year and 44-10 as 22-point home favorites in 2021.  Now we are only having to lay 3 points with Tulsa at home, which compared to those previous two spreads in this series is clearly a discount.

Tulsa wants to run the football, and Temple cannot stop the run.  Tulsa averages 170 rushing yards per game on 46 attempts.  They are going to run it, run it again and keep running it.  That's especially the case knowing they are up against a weak Temple run defense that is allowing 200 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane only allow 125 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season despite the brutal schedule.  They will win the battle at the line is scrimmage, and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -123

The Baltimore Orioles will clinch the AL East with a win today and are going for their 100th win on the season.  That motivation, and the fact that they keep coming up clutch with four consecutive victories coming in, means they should be a bigger favorite today.  

That's especially the case considering they are facing the tanking Red Sox, who are 4-16 in their last 20 games overall and have scored 5 runs or fewer in 14 of their last 15 games.  They've been held to 3 runs or fewer in four of their last five games.

Chris Sale 6-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 19 starts for the Red Sox this season.  Sale is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in three starts against the Orioles this season alone, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.

The Orioles are 23-8 (+16.9 Units) in Dean Kremer's 31 starts this season as he has been the most profitable starter to back in all of baseball.  Baltimore is 14-2 in Kremer's last 16 starts as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-2 in Kremer's last 14 starts overall.  Bet the Orioles Thursday.

15* Astros/Mariners AL West ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +110

The Houston Astros are choking away the division and their chances of making the playoffs.  They are having that World Series hangover here down the stretch.  The Astros are 4-10 in their last 14 games overall with seven losses to the Royals and A's, the two worst teams in the American League.  They cannot be trusted as a favorite right now.

Framber Valdez allowed 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Royals in his last start.  Valdez allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings to the Mariners in his last start against them as well.

Bryce Miller is 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 13 home starts this season.  Miller has owned the Astros in two starts against them this season, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.487 WHIP while pitching 12 1/3 shutout innings and allowing only 6 base runners.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on New York +110

The New York Yankees are one of the few teams eliminated from the playoffs that are playing for pride here down the stretch.  They are motivated to keep their streak of 30 consecutive winning seasons going, and they sit at 79-77 after going 4-1 in their last five games overall despite facing playoff contenders in Toronto and Arizona.

It's rare you'll get the opportunity to back AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole as an underdog, and we'll take advantage of that opportunity today.  Cole is 14-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Cole owns the Blue Jays, going 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.  He has faced the Blue Jays three times this season, allowing just one earned run in 19 2/3 innings for a minuscule 0.46 ERA.

Jose Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.58 ERA in 31 starts this season and has bounced back well after last season's disaster, but he's getting too much respect here.  Berrios does not enjoy facing the Yankees, going 3-6 with a 4.96 ERA in 12 career starts against them.  That includes 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 12 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in six of his last seven starts against New York.

The Yankees are 12-1 in Cole's 13 starts after he allowed one earned runs or fewer in his last start this season.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -119

The Tampa Bay Rays are still trying to chase down the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.  They have a great chance to gain some ground here playing the Boston Red Sox, who have been dead for weeks.  The Red Sox are 4-15 in their last 19 games overall and have scored a total of 5 runs in their last three games.  They have scored 5 runs or fewer in 13 consecutive games.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Tyler Glasnow, who is 9-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 20 starts this season with a whopping 153 K's in 115 innings.  Glasnow is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 10 career starts against Boston.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs with 36 K's in 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA in his last four starts against the Red Sox.

Brayan Bello is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last three starts for the Red Sox.  Bello is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa Bay.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 20 innings in those four starts.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +160

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall despite being underdogs in all 11 games.  They have scored 6 or more runs in eight of those 11 games and are hot at the plate.  I have recently cashed them as +234, +234, +205 underdog and I'm not about to jump off the train now.

Zack Greinke has a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts for the Royals.  Greinke loves facing the Tigers, going 12-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 31 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against Detroit for a 1.69 ERA.

Reese Olson is the likely starter for the Tigers in this one.  He is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 10 home starts while allowing 29 earned runs and 11 homers in 52 1/3 innings.  Olson allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, and 2 homers in 6 innings in his lone start against Kansas City this season.

Detroit is 1-9 in its last 10 home games following five or more consecutive road games.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Guardians OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Temps will be around 70 with 11 MPH winds blowing out to left to help improve home run chances.  This total was already too low with these two starting pitchers going tonight, and that's especially the case with the forecast.

Gas can Lucas Giolito is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA in 31 starts this season while allowing a whopping 37 homers.  Giolito is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in two career starts against the Reds, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings.  

Hunter Greene is 4-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 20 starts for the Reds this season.  Don't be surprised if the Reds cover this total on their own, but I expect the Guardians to chip in as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres/Giants UNDER 7

NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell goes for the Padres tonight.  Snell is 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 31 starts this season with a whopping 227 K's in 174 innings.  Snell has pitched 13 shutout innings while allowing only 2 base runners in his last two starts.

Snell owns the Giants, going 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has pitched 18 shutout innings with 27 K's in his last three starts against San Francisco.  The Giants have been held to 2 runs or fewer in four of their last five games overall.

Ace Logan Webb goes for the Giants tonight.  Webb is 6-6 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  Webb is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight career starts against San Diego.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Padres.

The Padres are 8-0 in Snell's eight starts vs. a NL team with a .315 OBP or worse this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Eagles/Bucs NFC No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season.  They are scoring 29.5 points per game.  They will get what they want against this Tampa Bay defense to lead the way in us cashing the OVER tonight.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are improved on offense this season behind Baker Mayfield, who has more weapons now than he ever has in his career.  Mayfield is a gun slinger who will make plenty of plays, but who is also susceptible to turnovers and easy scores for the Eagles.

Mayfield will be up against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that is allowing 378.0 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season to the Patriots and Vikings.  CB Maddox is out, LB Dean is out and DT Davis and DE Sweat are both questionable to play Monday.  Several other players are playing through injury on defense.

I think the Bucs are allowing 5.7 yards per play defensively this season.  The Vikings should have scored more on them in them in the opener but turned it over three times.  The Bucs also have injury concerns on defense with LB Dennis and DL Kancey out, plus LB White, DL Vea and CB Davis II all questionable.

Both defenses are vulnerable with injuries and both offenses are healthy and thriving in the early going this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants.  They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week.

No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers.  They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week.

Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for.  They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week.  I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona.  The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings.  A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47

The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47.

This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks.  Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars.  I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2.  Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury.  What a mess.  They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week.  The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs.  They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week.  But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result.  He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better.  That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks.  Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense.  

Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds.  This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season.  We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-121)

The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in five consecutive games and a total of 39 runs in those five games.  They are red hot at the plate, which is why I'm willing to take them on the Run Line today against the lowly Colorado Rockies, who have lost six consecutive games coming in.

Jordan Wicks is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in five starts for the Cubs this season.  Wicks held the Rockies to one run and 4 base runners in 6 innings in Colorado on September 11th earlier this month in his lone career start against them.

He'll be opposed by Ty Blach, who is 3-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 11 starts.  Blach is 1-1 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.195 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and a whopping 6 homers in 13 2/3 innings.  Blach has posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.

Colorado is 3-42 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-15 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +234

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall despite being underdogs in all 10 games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those 10 games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They have been a real thorn in Houston's side and are taking pride in it.  They won Game 1 as a +210 underdog and Game 2 as a +240 underdog.  I was on them in both games, and I'll back them again today.

Hunter Brown has no business being this big of a favorite over the Royals.  He is 10-12 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 14 home starts.  The Astros are 5-9 (-9.9 Units) in Brown's 14 home starts this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in his last start, which also came at home.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Astros OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall despite being underdogs in all 10 games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those 10 games and are hot at the plate.

The Royals will stay hot at the plate against the overrated Hunter Bown.  He is 10-12 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in his last start, which also came at home.

The Royals will be going with opener Steven Cruz in this one before turning it over to their bullpen, which has a 5.21 ERA and 1.477 WHIP on the season.  The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games and are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  They should get their bats going as well.

Houston is 17-4 OVER when revenging a one-run loss this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts +8

This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on the Baltimore Ravens.  They have won and covered each of their first two games this season.  They were far less dominant than the 25-9 score against Houston in the opener would indicate.  They were actually outgained by the Texans in that game and held to 265 total yards.

Last week the Ravens upset the Bengals 27-24 as 3-point road underdogs.  But the Bengals lost by 21 to Cleveland in the opener and have been a disaster to start the season.  Joe Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in the loss and may not play this week.  The Bengals are a mess.  So those two wins don't look that great now.

The Colts deserved to cover in their opener against the Jaguars, but lost 31-21 as they failed to get it in from the 1-yard line in the final seconds and blew a 4-point 4th quarter lead.  Then last week the Colts jumped out to a 31-10 lead on the Texans before calling off the dogs.  The 31-20 final wasn't indicative of how lopsided this game was.

QB Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion early in that game, and the Colts didn't miss a beat with Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup QB in the NFL.  Minshew went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The Colts will be fine with Minshew is Richardson cannot play Sunday, and it might actually be an upgrade.

The Ravens want to run the ball, and the Colts have been stout against the run this far.  They are only allowing 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  I think their defense can keep them in this game for four quarters, and whoever is under center will make enough plays to keep this a one-score game either way.  I just think this line should be a touchdown or less, so we are getting some line value at +8.

Like clockwork, the Ravens have a ton of injuries here early in the season again.  They are without RB Dobbins and CB Humphrey.  RB Hill, LT Stanley, C Linderbaum, LB Oweh and S Williams are all questionable.  I think these cluster injuries will catch up to them this week finally.

This is a trap spot for the Ravens.  They are coming off their double-revenge win over the Bengals as they had that game circled after losing in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs to the Bengals.  They have been thinking about this game all offseason.  Now they have two division road games against the Browns and Steelers on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for the Ravens, another reason they may not bring their best effort.

Plays on road teams (Indianapolis) - after playing their last game on the road in September games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Teams aren't tired this early in the season, so these back-to-back road games don't affect them nearly as much as they would later in the season.  This has actually been a very profitable spot to back these back-to-back road teams early.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44

The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44.

That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration.  Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers.  But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points.  There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long.

Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points.  The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs.  The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER.

CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance.  He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce.  This Texans offense I think is underrated right now.

The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now.  They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs.  They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well.  They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense.  It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well.  

Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted.  I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Deshaun Watson single-handedly cost the Browns a win last week.  He was 22-of-40 passing and had a couple costly offensive facemask penalties trying to stiff arm guys.  He also handed the Steelers two defensive touchdowns.  He's clearly not the guy he was in Houston. He is 4-4 as a starter in Cleveland with a 9-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  There's too much on Watson's shoulders moving forward.

Now the Browns are without their best offensive player in Nick Chubb after a gruesome knee injury.  I just don't think this team laying more than a field goal to the Titans.  They do have a great defense, but keep in mind they played a broken Bengals offense and a broken Steelers offense.  They also have a much worse injury situation than the Titans right now.

Mike Vraebel is the underdog king.  He actually has a winning record SU as an underdog in his career at 24-22 SU.  Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  The Titans just have a way of making games close and winning them late with great coaching.  Each of their first two games this season were decided by a combined 4 points.

The Titans have a very good defense this season that will keep them in games.  They are stout against the run, and the Browns want to run the football even without Chubb.  The Titans still have a great rushing attack with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill was much sharper last week completing 20-of-24 passes to bounce back from his 3-interception performance against the Saints.  He led the Titans to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Chargers to bounce back from the 1-point loss to the Saints.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing on Monday Night Football since 1992.  So the Browns are on a short week as well, only adding to the tough spot for them.  Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss in the first half of the season are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to PK.  Bet the Titans Friday.

15* New Mexico State/Hawaii Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -2.5

Hawaii has played an absolutely brutal schedule thus far and it's why they are 1-3.  Their three losses came to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Oregon and they were competitive in two of them.  Their lone win came 31-20 as 8-point favorites over Albany, one of the better FCS teams in the country.

New Mexico State is 2-2 against an extremely soft schedule.  Their two wins came against Western Illinois and New Mexico.  Western Illinois is one of the worst FCS teams, and New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams.  They were also upset as 7-point home favorites in a 30-41 loss to UMass, also one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They were blasted 33-17 at Liberty and outgained by 187 yards in that defeat.

This will be Hawaii's second-easiest game this season and New Mexico State's second-toughest.  This line suggest these teams are pretty much even if you give Hawaii 2.5 points for home-field advantage.  I just don't believe that's the case as the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the superior team, and they'll win this one by a field goal or more at home.

Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with New Mexico State, including 5-0 SU at home.  Timmy Chang is 9-2 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game as the coach of Hawaii.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Baylor +15.5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  This line would have been a lot smaller coming into the season than it is now.  I think it's an overreaction from what we've seen thus far.

Baylor is 1-2 getting upset by Texas State in the opener.  Turns out Texas State isn't that bad when you look at their results since.  They also lost 20-13 basically at the buzzer to Utah after blowing a 13-6 lead in the final two minutes, giving up a TD, turning it over and another TD.  They slept walked through their 30-7 win over Long Island last week, but it worked as pretty much a bye week because they didn't have to put forth much effort.

Texas is overvalued after a 3-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3 last week.  We saw Texas overvalued last week and took advantage by backing Wyoming +30.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.  The Longhorns are again overvalued this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Baylor.

Baylor's stats actually look pretty good compared to their record.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yards per play.  They are allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that averaging 5.8 yards per play.  So they are averaging 1.3 yards per play more on offense than their opponents allow, and allowing 0.5 yards per play less on defense than their opponents gain on average.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years with each of the last five meetings being decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas has only beaten Baylor by more than 11 points once in the last 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the Bears pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette -8.5

Buffalo looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  They lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in the opener, 40-37 to Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite and 55-27 to Liberty as a 3-point dog.  Their defense was shredded against Fordham and Liberty through the air despite both of those quarterbacks not being great passers.  They gave up a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio in those two games alone.

Louisiana is going to blow out Buffalo on Saturday.  They beat Northwestern State 38-13 in the opener, lost 31-38 at Old Dominion, and won 41-21 at UAB.  Old Dominion nearly upset Wake Forest last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.  The UAB win was very impressive as they had 515 total yards and won by 20 despite turning it over three times.  

Now the Rajin' Cajuns are back home here and licking their chops at the opportunity to face this putrid Buffalo defense that is allowing 44.3 points per game, 510.7 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  The Bulls are only averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense, so they are getting outgained by 2.4 yards per play on the season.  Louisiana is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.

Maurice Lingquist clearly isn't the answer at head coach in Buffalo.  Lingquist is 0-6 ATS following a home loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 2-12 ATS following a loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games.  

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more combined points per scored are 73-27 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Louisiana Saturday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Astros OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hot at the plate.

J.P. France is getting too much respect from the books with this low 9-run total.  He is 5-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 11 home starts this season.  France faced the Royals on the road in his last start on September 16th and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 defeat.

The Astros have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They will get to Jordan Lyles, who is 2-9 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against Houston this season.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  Lyles is 11-2 OVER in his last 13 starts vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game in the second half of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +234

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They have been a real thorn in Houston's side and are taking pride in it.  They won Game 1 as a +210 underdog last night.  I took them in that game, and I'm back on them again today.

J.P. France has no business being this big of a favorite.  He is 5-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 11 home starts this season.  France faced the Royals on the road in his last start on September 16th and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 defeat.  

Jordan Lyles has been respectable against Houston, going 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in seven career starts against the Astros.  He'll keep them in this game while their bats stay hot against France.  The value is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/A's OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-3 in Tigers last nine games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in five of those nine games and 4 or more in six of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in A's last four games overall and we've seen 9 or more combined runs in all four games.

Gas can Joey Wentz goes for the Tigers today.  He is 1-10 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.794 WHIP in 18  starts this season.  He'll be opposed by an opener for the A's followed by their god awful bullpen.  The A's have a 5.24 ERA and 1.505 WHIP as a bullpen this season.

Temps will be approaching 70 in Oakland today with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center to help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  But that 1-2 record has them undervalued now and this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 3-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Last week, Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Oklahoma State's results to this point have been much more alarming.  None more than last week's 33-7 home loss to South Alabama as a 7-point favorite.  There was nothing fluky about that result as South Alabama outgained Oklahoma State 395 to 208 for the game.  The Cowboys tried three different quarterbacks in that game and none were successful.  They just don't have a QB this year after Spencer Sanders transferred out.  Keep in mind South Alabama lost by 20 at Tulane in their opener and only beat SE Louisiana by 18 at home as a 23-point favorite.

Oklahoma State needed a second-half comeback to beat Arizona State 27-15 two weeks ago.  They only outgained ASU 304 to 277 for the game.  ASU went on to lose 29-0 at home to Fresno State last week and is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12.  They also only beat Southern Utah 24-21 as a 34.5-point home favorite in the opener.  Oklahoma State only beat FCS Central Arkansas 27-13 in the opener as a 26.5-point home favorite as well.  This is the worst Cowboys team we've seen in a long time, and this may very well by Mike Gundy's final season in Stillwater.

I trust Matt Campbell to rally the troops much more than Gundy, who looks to have lost this team after that 26-point home loss to South Alabama.  The Cyclones have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well.  They are more battle-tested and I think they get rewarded with a win and cover at home in the Big 12 opener this weekend.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 37

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a 65% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

They should shut down what looks like the worst Oklahoma State offense of the Mike Gundy era.  Despite facing a soft schedule of Central Arkansas, ASU and South Alabama, Oklahoma State is only scoring 20.3 points per game, averaging 323 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  The Cowboys only managed 7 points and 208 total yards at home against South Alabama last week and tried out three different quarterbacks.  They are lost at the position after Spencer Sanders transferred away.

Iowa State also looks lost offensively this season but has played a tougher schedule.  They are averaging 16.7 points per game, 271.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  The suspensions due to the betting scandal hurt them more on offense than on defense and it has shown.  They are forced to start a backup QB in Becht now and he has struggled in the early going.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams with last year resulting in only 34 combined points.  Iowa State is 12-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Cowboys are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Campbell is 12-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -21

The Colorado Buffaloes have already hit their season win total of 3 with their 3-0 start.  They have been the talk of college football and have gotten a lot of hype after beating both TCU and Nebraska to open the season.  It's clear both TCU and Nebraska are down this season, so those wins don't look as good in hindsight.

Last week millions of viewers tuned in for their showdown against Colorado State with College Gameday on campus.  It was a thrilling game and a great comeback for Colorado despite being 23-point favorites.  Trailing by 8 with 98 yards to go on their final possession of regulation, Shedeur Sanders led them down the field and got the touchdown and 2-point conversion to force OT.  Colorado would win in double-OT in a game that finished at roughly 2:00 AM EST.

Now the Buffaloes are a tired team heading into this game with Oregon.  They are also a beat up team losing the top recruit in the country in Travis Hunter to an injury against Colorado State.  Hunter was their best receiver and best cornerback and it's a huge blow to the team not having him moving forward.  I don't think they can hang with Oregon without him.

Oregon looks like a freight train this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Portland State 81-7 as a 48-point favorite, going on the road and beating Texas Tech 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite, and avoiding the letdown last week in a 55-10 home win over Hawaii as a 38-point favorite.

Oregon is averaging 58 points per game, 587 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play this season with tremendous balance, throwing for 363 yards per game and rushing for 224 yards per game.  They are going to score at will on this shaky Colorado defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game, 460.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  I don't think Sanders and company can keep up for four quarters.  They get a big time reality check here on the road in a hostile environment in Eugene.

Dan Lanning is 11-3 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oregon.  Lanning is 7-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards last game as the coach of the Ducks.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams averaging 31 or more points per game.  This is too much to ask of Deion Sanders and his team to go on the road and hang with one of the top teams in the country in the Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 55.5

West Virginia is now a power running team under their new offensive coordinator.  They ran 40 times against Penn State, 49 times against Duquesne and 48 times against Pitt.  That game last week against Pitt was ugly as the Mountaineers won 17-6 with just 221 total yards while limiting the Panthers to just 211 total yards.

I think West Virginia will control this game playing at home with its running game while trying to shorten it.  The Mountaineers rank 116th out of 133 teams in the country in seconds between plays at 29.5 seconds.  Slowing it down gives them their best chance to win against Texas Tech.

I think Texas Tech's opener against Wyoming was very misleading which is why this total has been inflated.  It saw 68 combined points in a 33-35 loss in double-OT, but that game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation for just 40 combined points, so they scored 28 points in OT.  Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30 and had a defensive TD in the closing seconds that turned a 61-point result into a 68-point result.  Last week Texas Tech flexed defensively in a 41-3 win over Tarleton State in a game that had a 75.5-point total, so it was expected to be a shootout.

This Texas Tech defense has been good holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play despite those opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play in all games, holding them 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.  West Virginia is allowing 20.3 points per game, 307.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season despite facing a difficult schedule against Pitt and Penn State already.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (West Virginia) - a solid team outgaining opponents by 75 or more yards per game after gaining 225 or less total yards last game are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Kansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 56

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between BYU and Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with greater than a 50% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

BYU's offense looks atrocious this season.  They are averaging just 310.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They beat Sam Houston 14-0 in the opener.  Their misleading 38-31 win over Arkansas last week was so misleading and has provided us some value on the UNDER.  BYU only had 281 total yards in that game but managed to score 38 points.

Kansas looks greatly improved defensively this season.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have put up some points, but they've also faced an easy schedule of opposing defenses in Missouri State, Illinois and Nevada.  This is a big step up in class for their offense against this BYU defense Saturday.

Both teams prefer to run the football and will be forced to given the forecast.  BYU is 46-19 UNDER in its last 65 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  Kansas is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.  Sitake is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game as the coach of BYU.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes after their 3-0 start that included a 48-33 home win over Texas A&M.  This is a sleepy spot for them with their ACC opener on deck.  It is also their first road game of the season against Temple.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Temple after a shaky start to the season that included a 3-point win over Akron and a 29-point loss at Rutgers, which was a bit misleading when you look at the box score.  Rutgers also appears to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Temple got right last week with a 41-9 home win over Norfolk State.  Now they Owls will be licking their chops with this opportunity to host a Top 25 opponent from the ACC.

Weather is a big reason I think the Owls can keep this game close.  There is a 72% chance of rain and 23.5 MPH winds forecast as of this writing.  There won't be a lot of points scored in this game as a result, thus making it hard for Miami to get margin.  This game will likely be played on the ground which will shorten the game as well.  Temple has done well rushing for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per carry thus for.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-107)

The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in four consecutive games and a total of 33 runs in those four games.  They are red hot at the plate, which is why I'm willing to take them on the Run Line today against gas can Chris Flexen and the awful Colorado Rockies.

Marcus Stroman is 10-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 23 starts for the Cubs this season, including 6-6 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Stroman is 4-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in six career starts against Colorado.

Flexen is 1-8 with a 7.70 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 10.99 ERA and 2.187 WHIP in five road starts.  Flexen is 0-1 with a 12.92 ERA and 3.003 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs, both of which have come in 2023.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 23 base runners in 7 2/3 innings in those two starts against Chicago.

Colorado is 3-41 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-14 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Army +14

Army returned 17 starters this season which is a ton for a service academy.  I think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week they upset UTSA on the road 37-29 as 7-point underdogs.  They have much greater balance this season and showed it off with 254 rushing yards and 188 passing yards in the win.

Army clearly has an elite defense that can keep them in games this season.  They are only allowing 15.3 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And I think their offense will score enough points to keep them within two touchdowns of Syracuse on Saturday.

I think Syracuse is grossly overvalued right now due to opening not only 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 ATS against a very soft schedule.  They crushed Colgate, one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They also won at Purdue, which is a rebuilding Purdue team that also lost at home to Fresno State.  This will be their toughest test of the season.

I think it's a sandwich spot for Syracuse and they won't be that excited to face Army.  They are coming off the big road win at Purdue, and now they have their ACC opener against Clemson on deck.  This just screams letdown for the Orange, who have only a week to get ready for the triple-option, and I think it takes more than a week to truly get prepared for it.  That's why I love backing service academies in this spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Army) - a mistake-free team with 42 or fewer penalty yards per game after dominating the times of possession last game with 36 or more TOP minutes are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1992.  Army has an extra day of rest coming into this one too after playing last Friday.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +24

The teams that made the four-team playoff last year have been grossly overvalued this year.  That includes both Georgia and Michigan, who are a combined 0-5-1 ATS.  Michigan hasn't even scored enough points to cover their spreads.

Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites, UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites and Bowling Green 31-6 as 41-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played an extremely soft schedule and haven't managed to top 35 points once.  A big reason is because Michigan ranks 131st out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 31.5 seconds in between plays.  Only Army and Air Force have been slower, with Navy just ahead of them in 130th.

Now Michigan plays another slow team in Rutgers, which ranks 125th in seconds per play.  This is a huge step up in class for the Wolverines as the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Northwestern 24-7 as a 5-point favorite, Temple 36-7 as a 7.5-point favorite and VA Tech 35-16 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan will struggle to score against this very good Rutgers defense that is allowing just 10.0 points per game, 273.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  This looks like a much-improved Rutgers offense as well at 31.7 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  Will Michigan even score 24 points? They didn't two years ago beating Rutgers 20-13 as a 20.5-point home favorite.

Greg Schiano is 9-2 ATS in September games as the coach of Rutgers.  Schiano is 32-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* Boise State/San Diego State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +7

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Diego State after playing a brutal schedule to open the season.  They have actually done a good job of getting to 2-2 despite the schedule.  They beat one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in Ohio.  Their two losses have come to two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA (35-10) and Oregon State (26-9).

Now San Diego State is excited to open Mountain West Play and make a statement as a 7-point home underdog to Boise State.  I thought Boise State was was overrated coming into the season due to what they did to finish last season, making the MWC Title game only to lose to Fresno State.  They lost their offensive coordinator who was the biggest reason they made that run after the switch at QB and the switch in the offense.

That Boise State offense hasn't been the same this season.  They managed just 19 points in a 56-19 loss at Washington in the opener.  They managed 16 points in an 18-16 home loss to UCF, a game they should have lost by more when you consider UCF had 530 total yards on them.  They also gave up 568 total yards to Washington, so this defense clearly isn't any good.  They then allowed 18 points to North Dakota last week, and the offense only managed 394 total yards in that game.

San Diego State is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boise State with two outright upsets as 6-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  They have been a dog in all four home meetings and have held their own, and I think it will be more of the same Friday night.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +205

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 7-1 in their last eight games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 6 or more runs in six of those eight games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They were +135 dogs with Cole Ragans, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Ragans is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 10 starts this season while allowing only 2 homers with a whopping 76 K's in 59 1/3 innings.

Framber Valdez has been overvalued all season for the Astros, especially when pitching at home.  The Astros are just 7-8 (-7.6 Units) in Valdez's 15 home starts this season.  They were nearly swept by the Orioles and A's in their last two series at home, having to win Game 3 in both just to salvage.  The value is too good to pass up on Ragans and Kansas City tonight.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +106

The Cleveland Guardians have been eliminated from playoff contention.  They cannot be favored over the Baltimore Orioles, who are battling with the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL East title.  

Shane Bieber will be making his first start since July 9th and will be on a pitch count for the Guardians.  Bieber allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings to the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

Dean Kremer is one of the many underrated starters this season for the Orioles.  They are 23-7 (+17.9 Units) in Kremer's 30 starts this season.  He has done his best work on the road at 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 12 starts away from home.

The Orioles are 12-1 in Kremer's last 13 starts.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockies/Cubs OVER 9

The Chicago Cubs have scored a total of 27 runs in their last three games.  I like their chances of staying hot at the plate against the lowly Colorado Rockies and starter Noah Davis this afternoon. Davis is 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The Rockies have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall and 9 runs or more four times.  They should be able to get to Jameson Taillon, who is 7-10 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Taillon faced the Rockies in his last start on September 13th and allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 7-3 defeat.

Chicago is 10-0 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs this season, including 13-1 OVER after the bullpen gave up 4 or more earned runs last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Giants/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -10

The San Francisco 49ers look like the best team in the NFL through two weeks.  The New York Giants look like one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks.  That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits on the 49ers here at home against the Giants.

The 49ers dominated the Steelers 30-7 on the road in Week 1.  They gained 391 yards and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 239 yards and 3.9 per play on defense.  The 49ers then beat the Rams 30-23 on the road only after a last-second field goal at the buzzer by the Rams.  They gained 365 yards and 6.8 yards per play on offense while holding the Rams to 4.9 yards per play on defense.  Yes, the Rams outgained them, but that's only because they ran 24 more plays.  Yards per play margin is a lot more important in the NFL.

The Giants were blasted 40-0 by the Cowboys in Week 1.  They only managed 171 total yards and 2.6 yards per play on offense against the Cowboys.  Then they had what was supposed to be a 'get right' game against arguably the worst team in the NFL last week in the Arizona Cardinals, and it was anything but.  The Giants needed to come back from a 28-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter to win on a field goal, 31-28.  The Giants allowed 379 yards and 6.3 yards per play to the Josh Dobbs and this pitiful Arizona offense.

That comeback effort will have taken a lot out of the Giants on a short week.  They will be fatigued playing their second consecutive road game.  Meanwhile, there's basically no travel at all for the 49ers and from Los Angeles back to Santa Clara, so they will have a big advantage in rest here.

Injuries also work in the 49ers favor here.  They are remarkably healthy right now with WR Brandon Aiyuk being the only scare.  He left the Rams game with a shoulder injury, but he returned to finish the game, so you have to think he's going to give it a go Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Giants lost their best playmaker in Saquan Barkley to an ankle injury while trying to center the ball for the game-winning field goal last week.

Barkley scored two of their four touchdowns last week and this offense was already bad with him, and it's going to be very bad without him.  Backup Matt Breida only had one rush for five yards last week.  LT Andrew Thomas is questionable and LG Ben Bredeson is doubtful.  LB Micah McFadden is questionable and LB Azeez Ojulari is questionable as well.  The injuries are already starting to add up for the Giants.

San Francisco went 9-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and outscored opponents by 14.5 points per game in this spot.  The 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  San Francisco is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games with the 14 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Cubs OVER 8.5

The Cubs and Pirates went for 15 combined runs in Game 1 and 20 combined runs in Game 2.  I think we see more of the same here in Game 3 inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field with these two starters on the mound tonight.

Kyle Hendricks is 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in 12 home starts this season.  Hendricks is 1-0 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.

Johan Oviedo is 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in 30 starts this season, 4-8 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.476 WHIP In 16 road starts, and 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in his last three starts.  Oviedo is 1-4 with a 4.14 ERA in eight career starts against Chicago.

Chicago is a perfect 9-0 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs this season, and 12-1 OVER after a game where they were hit for 4 or more earned runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Georgia State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +7

The Georgia State Panthers have been impressive in their 3-0 start this season.  Their last two games were particularly good as they beat UConn 35-14 as 3-point home favorites and Charlotte 41-25 as 4.5-point road favorites.  Their offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, 463 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They have great balance with 195 rushing yards per game and 268 passing behind senior QB Darren Grainger, who is a full-time starter for a third consecutive season.

They have the offense to keep up with Coastal Carolina, who has a first-year head coach in Tim Beck.  The 27-13 loss to UCLA was not impressive and the 30-16 win over Jacksonville State as 13.5-point home favorites was lackluster as well.  They only outgained Jacksonville State by 6 yards.  Their 66-7 win over awful Duquesne is skewing their numbers.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Georgia State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Coastal Carolina.  The Panthers won 42-40 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2021, 31-21 as 3.5-point road dogs in 2019 and 27-21 as a PK in 2017.  They are catching too many points again here on the road in a game their offense can keep them close for four quarters.

Georgia State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games on turf.  Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games, including 7-0 ATS in this spot under current head coach Shawn Elliott.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Tigers/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 17-6-2 in Dodgers last 25 games overall.  The Detroit Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last six games and a total of 34 runs in those six contests.

Reese Olson is 4-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 16 starts for the Tigers this season and averaging just 5.0 innings per start.  Bobby Miller is 10-3 with a 4.02 ERA in 19 starts for the Dodgers, including 5-2 with a 4.73 ERA in nine home starts.

The OVER is 24-5-1 in Dodgers last 30 games vs. AL opponents.  Detroit is 9-1 OVER vs. NL teams averaging 5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Orioles/Astros AL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles have scored 8, 5, 8 and 9 runs in their last four games.  The Houston Astros have scored 8, 7, 7 and 5 runs in their last four games.  This total is too low for these two hot offenses up against these two starting pitchers today.

Cristian Javier is 9-4 in spite of a 4.74 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Kyle Bradish has been good for the Orioles, but he did allow 4 earned runs in 7 innings to the Rays in his last start, and I believe the Astros will get to him today.

The OVER is 10-0 in Orioles last 10 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Rangers OVER 8.5

The Texas Rangers are hitting .272 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season.  The Boston Red Sox are hitting .261 and scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season.  I expect both of these starting pitchers to struggle today.

Jon Gray is 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 14 home starts this season.  Gray is 0-1 with a 7.14 ERA and 2.293 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 26 base runners in 11 1/3 innings.  Bryan Bello is 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 9 earned runs in 17 innings.

Texas is a perfect 10-0 OVER after a 5-game span where they had a .285 OBP or worse this season.  The Rangers are 15-2 OVER after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Tigers/Dodgers OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 17-5-2 in Dodgers last 24 games overall.  The Detroit Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games and a total of 32 runs in those five contests.

The Tigers will be going with an opener today before turning it over to their shaky bullpen.  Ryan Yarbrough has been used in several different roles for the Dodgers and likely won't go deep into this one before giving way to their bullpen.

The OVER is 24-4-1 in Dodgers last 29 games vs. AL opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Astros OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles have scored 8, 5 and 8 runs in their last three games.  The Houston Astros have scored 8, 7 and 7 runs in their last three games.  This total is too low for these two hot offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Kyle Gibson is 14-9 in spite of a 4.98 ERA in 30 starts this season because he tends to get tremendous run support every time out.  Hunter Brown is 10-11 with a 4.68 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 4-7 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.539 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Brown allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings to the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

The OVER is 9-0 in Orioles last nine road games.  Houston is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games when revenging a one-run loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Red Sox/Rangers AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The Boston Red Sox go with Tanner Houck, who is 5-9 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Houck will be facing a Texas lineup that is hitting .273 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season.  I expect the Rangers to hang a big number on him tonight.

The Red Sox will get their runs off opener Nathan Eovaldi and this woeful Texas bullpen, which has a 4.98 ERA on the season and a 5.23 ERA at home.  Eovaldi is 0-1 with a 7.73 ERA and 2.432 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 innings as injury has limited him to an opener role.

Texas is 14-2 OVER after hitting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Reds OVER 9.5

The Minnesota Twins have scored at least 3 runs in eight consecutive games.  The Cincinnati Reds are 2-0 OVER in their last two games overall with 10 and 12 combined runs.  The Twins are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in four of their last five contests.

Kenta Maeda is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 19 starts for the Twins while averaging 5.1 innings per start.  Maeda is 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati.  The Reds will get into their bullpen early.  Fernando Cruz is just an opener for the Reds.  The Twins will get into Cincinnati's bullpen even earlier.

The OVER is 13-3 in Maeda's last 16 road starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Minnesota is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 road games vs. a NL team with a .255 batting average or worse in the second half of the season.  Maeda is 18-5 OVER in road games vs. NL teams with a .250 average or worse in his career.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Browns/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who may be the best team in the NFL.  Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off a 24-3 dismantling of the Bengals in the slop.  They simply own the Bengals, and Joe Burrow was rusty after just recently returning to practice, plus the slopping conditions favored the Browns.

The Steelers were 1-point favorites for this game on the lookahead line, and now they are 3-point underdogs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for one game's results, and we'll take advantage of the line value and back the motivated 0-1 home underdog here against the fat and happy 1-0 team.

The Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns over the years, especially at home.  Pittsburgh is 46-12 SU against Cleveland since 1992, including 28-3 SU at home.  It's rare to find them as home underdogs to the Browns, but that's the opportunity we have been given here, and we'll take advantage.

Mike Tomlin is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Pittsburgh.  His teams are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Steelers are 53-31-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-5-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Cleveland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win by 10 points or more over a division rival.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Pittsburgh) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Browns haven't won at Pittsburgh in the regular season since 1993.  Finally, the Steelers are 20-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football since 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8.5

This is a very low total for a game involving Adam Wainwright.  He is 4-11 with a 7.95 ERA and 1.979 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  But I think the Cardinals are going to get to Freddy Peralta as well tonight.

Peralta just cannot figure out the Cardinals, going 1-5 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 1-4 with an 8.51 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis, allowing 23 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 16-2 in Peralta's last 18 road starts after giving up one or fewer earned runs in his last start.  Milwaukee is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 6.40 ERA or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +165

Adam Wainwright is done after this season and is sitting on 199 career wins.  It's safe to say he and his teammates will be motivated to get him that 200th win tonight.  He pitched well at Baltimore in a 5-2 victory as a +170 dog to get his 199th win in his last start.  And I think he'll pitch well enough to give himself a chance tonight.

Wainwright has awful numbers this season, but now faces an opponent he always has success against.  He is 21-14 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 47 career starts against Milwaukee.  The Brewers have nothing to play for at this point as they are pretty much locked into the No. 3 seed in the NL Central.

Freddy Peralta just cannot figure out the Cardinals, going 1-5 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 1-4 with an 8.51 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis, allowing 23 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Milwaukee is actually 4-10 (-13.2 Units) in its last 14 games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 6.40 ERA or worse.  The Brewers are 4-10 (-9.3 Units) in Peralta's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The value is too good to pass up tonight given the situation.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

15* Phillies/Braves NL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 11-2 in Braves last 13 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in 11 of those 13 games.  They just went for 18, 16 and 15 combined runs in three games at pitcher-friendly Miami over the weekend.

Kyle Wright is likely to get lit up again tonight.  He is 0-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in six starts this season.  Wright made his return to the rotation from a long absence on September 11th, allowing 6 earned runs in 3 innings to these same Phillies in a 7-5 defeat.

Zack Wheeler just faced the Braves in his last start and it did not go well for him.  Wheeler allowed 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to Atlanta.  It should be more of the same tonight.

The OVER is 25-11 in Wheeler's last 36 starts with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on Carolina +3.5

I like backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  The lookahead line for this game was Saints -1.5, and now it has been bet up to -3 and -3.5 in some places.  That's plenty of line value to pull the trigger on the home underdog here catching 3 points.

Carolina's 24-10 loss at Atlanta was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Panthers actually held the Falcons to 221 total yards and outgained them by 60 yards and had 20 first downs compared to 13 for Atlanta.  But the difference was the Panthers lost the turnover battle 3-0.

That was a tough spot for rookie QB Bryce Young in his NFL debut on the road in a hostile atmosphere in Atlanta.  I like his chances of playing much better at home in front of a rowdy crowd that will be on his side in anticipation of getting to see the top pick in the draft.  The Panthers rushed for 154 yards and 4.8 per carry against the Falcons, so they have the running game to take some pressure off Young.  They also are expected to get WR DJ Chark back from injury this week to give him another weapon.

The Saints beat the Titans 16-15 at home last week.  Ryan Tannehill gave that game away by throwing 3 interceptions in a game the Titans deserved to win.  Derek Carr was decent in his first start for the Saints, but they had no running game, rushing for 69 yards and 2.6 per carry.  Not having Alvin Kamara due to suspension is a big blow to this Saints offense.

Carolina is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a divisional loss by 10 points or more.  Carolina won both meetings with New Orleans last year despite being underdogs in both games, holding the Saints to 7 points at home and 14 points on the road.  They have this New Orleans offense figured out and I trust their defense to keep them in this game, while Young makes enough plays in the passing game for the Panthers to get the upset victory.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -112

I backed the Cubs in a similar situation against the Diamondbacks last series.  They lost the first three games of that series but took Game 4 to avoid the sweep.  After losing the first two games of this series to the Diamondbacks, I expect them to take Game 3 and avoid the sweep as well.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Jordan Wicks, who is 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in four starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in three road starts.  Two of those road starts came at two of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors as well in Colorado and Cincinnati.

Ryne Nelson is an absolute gas can for the Diamondbacks.  He is 7-8 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 2-5 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.948 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Nelson is 1-3 with a 10.69 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 innings.  Nelson has allowed at least one homer in nine of this last 10 starts, including 2 homers or more in five of those.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rangers/Guardians OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-2 in their last eight games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five of their last seven games. The OVER is 12-2 in Rangers last 14 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 14 games.

Now the Rangers should get to Gavin Williams, who is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in nine home starts for the Guardians this season.  They Guardians should get to Cody Bradford, who is 4-1 with a 3.80 ERA this season with 20 earned runs and 8 homers in 47 1/3 innings.  Bradford will likely give way to Martin Perez, who is 9-4 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.458 WHIP this season while allowing 68 earned runs and 21 homers in 131 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Jaguars AFC No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3

I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as a legit Super Bowl contender this season.  While the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jets were getting all of the hype coming into the season, the Jaguars are the sleeper team that could win it all.  They will be out to prove that Sunday with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs coming to town.

The Jaguars also want revenge from two losses to the Chiefs last season.  They lost 27-17 on the road as 10-point underdogs during the regular season and 27-20 as 10-point road dogs in the playoffs.  They hung right with the Chiefs only getting outgained by 13 yards in that playoff meeting.  Now they get the Chiefs at home this time around.

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

The Jaguars also have playmakers all over the defense and held the Colts to 280 total yards and 4.1 yards per play.  They can more than hold their own on this side of the ball, and now they are very familiar with Kansas City's system having played them twice.  Travis Kelce may return this week from a knee injury, but he won't be 100% after sitting out the Detroit game.  Patrick Mahomes just wasn't comfortable with his receivers without him.

Everyone is on the Chiefs with over 80% of the bets and over 80% of the money just automatically assuming their going to bounce back.  I'll go contrarian here and back the Jaguars, who I have power-rated much higher than most this season.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing for the winners and the losers, and I question Kansas City's motivation early in the season when these games don't matter as much.  I know we're going to get 100% effort from the Jaguars playing with double-revenge from last season after the Chiefs ended their season.

Plays on home teams (Jacksonville) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, a team that had a winning record last season are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983.  Kansas City is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs. AFC opponents.  Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games following a divisional road win.  Doug Pederson is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog as a head coach.  Bet Jacksonville Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 50.5

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

As you already know, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and company.  Drops hurt them in their Week 1 loss to the Lions, plus the fact that they didn't have their best playmakers in Travis Kelce.  You can expect a much better offensive performance from the Chiefs in this one.

The Chiefs didn't have much problem scoring points against the Jaguars last season.  They put up 27 points in each of their two meetings.  No question the Chiefs will get their points again, but I now think the Jaguars have the offense to keep up with them in a shootout with the addition of Ridley.

Kansas City is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games played on a grass field, and we're seeing 65.5 combined points per game in this spot.  Andy Reid is 11-3 OVER in road games following a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Bears +3

This is a classic overreaction from Week 1 results.  Tampa Bay upset Minnesota on the road 20-17 as 4-point underdogs, while Chicago was upset at home by Green Bay 38-20 as 1-point favorites.  Now the Bucs are 3-point favorites over the Bears in Week 2 after the lookahead line had the Bears -2 for this game.  So that's a 5-point adjustment that's not warranted.

We all knew Minnesota would come back to the pack this year after going 11-0 in one-score games and actually getting outscored on the season last year.  But with that being said, the Vikings still should have won that game when you dive into the box score.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.

Baker Mayfield isn't all of a sudden the savior for the Bucs.  He hasn't won in this league, and he's not going to be a winner in Tampa Bay, either.  Mayfield's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a favorite.  When he has expectations, he fails to meet them.  You want Mayfield in the underdog role with a chip on his shoulder.

Speaking of chip on their shoulder, the Bears will have that this week after a misleading 38-20 loss to the Packers in Week 1.  Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards by Green Bay in that game, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0.  The defense wasn't as bad as the 38 points would suggest considering they held the Packers to 329 total yards.

There is expected to be rain in Tampa Bay Sunday.  That's going to favor the team that wants to run the ball, which is the Bears.  They rushed for 122 yards and 4.2 per carry against the Packers.  The Bucs could only muster 73 rushing yards on 33 attempts against the Vikings, or just 2.2 yards per carry.  That's really poor when you consider the Eagles rushed for 259 yards and 5.4 per carry against the Vikings Thursday night.  The Bears held the Packers to 92 rushing yards on 32 attempts for 2.9 per carry.

Tampa Bay is 2-12 ATS in games played on grass over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road teams (Chicago) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 (91.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Buffalo Bills -9

The Buffalo Bills beat up on bad teams.  It's just what they do.  You know they are going to want to beat up on the Raiders Sunday to get the sour taste out of their mouths from blowing a 10-point halftime lead to the Jets on Monday Night Football.  I think they lost their focus due to Aaron Rodgers going out with injury, and they won't make the same mistakes they made against the Jets.

The Bills could have simply kneeled and punted every possession in the 2nd half and won the game.  Instead, they committed four turnovers to give the game away, and Josh Allen made a bunch of mistakes that he doesn't normally make.  It's fair that he was rusty in the opener and playing an elite Jets defense that has his number.  Now he takes a big step down in class here against this soft Las Vegas defense and will be looking to make a statement.

I love backing 0-1 teams like the Bills coming off an upset loss against a 1-0 team like the Raiders coming off an upset win.  This line should be double-digits, but due to the overreaction from last week we are getting the Bills as single-digit favorites as a result.

The Raiders managed to upset the Broncos 17-16 as 3-point road underdogs last week.  The Broncos were playing their first game under Sean Payton and had some injuries, including their best WR in Jerry Jeudy sitting.  They made just enough plays to win that game.

I'm not a Jimmy Garoppolo believer.  He can't hang with Allen and the Bills in a shootout.  While Buffalo is almost fully healthy for this one, Las Vegas lost its No. 2 receiver in Jakobi Meyers to a concussion against the Broncos last week.  Their offense will be significantly hampered without Meyers as the Bills can simply focus on stopping Davante Adams.

Josh Allen is 16-1 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more in his career and his teams usually dominate in this spot.  He is 44-13 as a favorite overall with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game, and 27-7 as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5

Joe Burrow didn't play a snap in the preseason and it showed as he clearly wasn't himself against the Cleveland Browns last week.  Burrow went 14-of-31 for 82 yards while averaging 2.6 yards per attempt as the Bengals managed just 3 points against the Browns.  I don't think it will magically be fixed in one week.

The Ravens managed 25 points against the Houston Texans last week but that came on just 265 total yards.  Lamar Jackson is learning a new offense and it's going to take some time.  But the Ravens were great defensively limiting the Texans to 9 points and 268 total yards.

Clearly both defenses are ahead of the offenses right now, and I expect that to be the case again Sunday.  The Ravens are already decimated by injuries right now.  RB JK Dobbins suffered a torn achilles in Week 1, and OT Ronnie Stanfley, C Tyler Linderbaum and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play in Week 2.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 4th meeting between the Ravens and Bengals since Week 5 last year.  The first meeting saw just 36 combined points, the second meeting saw just 43 combined points, and the 3rd meeting in the playoffs saw just 41 combined points.  As you can see, all three meetings stayed well UNDER this 46.5-point total.  It should be more of the same given the circumstances in Week 2 Sunday.

Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine September games.  Zac Taylor is 13-3 UNDER in September games as the coach of Cincinnati, so his teams tend to start slow offensively but have been on point defensively.  Cincinnati is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games against AFC opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/Colorado OVER 59

The Colorado Buffaloes are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Deion Sanders.  They scored 45 points and put up 568 total yards against TCU and put up 36 points and 454 total yards against a good Nebraska defense.  But they allowed 42 points and 541 total yards to TCU and their defense is atrocious, allowing 6.2 yards per play through two games this season, including 6.2 per carry on the ground.

Colorado ranks 22nd in the country in seconds per snap at 22.9 seconds in between plays.  Now they face a Colorado State team that wants to go up-tempo as well ranking 4th at 19.2 seconds per snap.  The Rams look like a dead nuts OVER team after one game, too.

They lost 50-24 to Washington State while allowing 556 total yards to the Cougars.  Head coach Jay Norvell is an air-raid guy who led an explosive offense at Nevada.  Now he's in Year 2 at Colorado State and believes he has found his quarterback in freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.  He provided a spark against Washington State leading the Rams to 21 fourth quarter points.  He went 13-of-20 for 210 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt.

This is a National TV game on ESPN Saturday night.  You know both offenses are going to want to show out on prime time, and I don't think we'll have a problem getting up and OVER this 60-point total in a game between two fast-paced offenses against two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -101

The Chicago Cubs have lost four out of five to the Diamondbacks in two of their last three series.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today.  I like their chances of bouncing back due to their big advantage on the mound.

Kyle Hendricks is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in nine road starts.  Hendricks is 5-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 10 career starts against Arizona.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in their lone victory last series.

Zach Davies is 2-5 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in 16 starts for the Diamondbacks this season while allowing a whopping 57 earned runs in 75 1/3 innings.  The Cubs are 27-6 in Hendricks' last 33 Saturday starts.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Wyoming +30

This is a terrible spot for Texas.  They finally got their validation with a 34-24 upset win at Alabama last week.  The Crimson Tide are clearly down this season and got terrible QB play.  Now the Longhorns have been getting patted on the back all week and complimented.  It's only human nature that they have a letdown.

This is also a sandwich spot for Texas with their Big 12 opener at Baylor on deck.  They won't be giving 100% effort here, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this massive 30-point spread against a Wyoming team that already upset a team from the Big 12 in Texas Tech.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 as 12-point dogs in the opener.  That's a Texas Tech team that gave Oregon all they could handle last week.  It was only human nature for Wyoming to have a letdown the next week, only beating Portland State 31-17 as 28-point favorites.  It was also a sandwich spot for them with Texas on deck.

Keep in mind Wyoming pulled its starting QB in Andrew Peasley up 21 in that Portland State game.  Peasley is healthy and ready to go against Texas, and he may very be the best QB of the Craig Bohl era.  He threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 68 yards and a score against Texas Tech in that opener.  He threw three more touchdown passes against Portland State last week and is a legitimate passer.  Wyoming is expected to get Northern Illinois transfer RB Harrison Waylee to make his season debut this week.  He rushed for 1,929 yards and averaged 5.2 per carry at NIU prior to coming here.

We saw Texas struggle to put away Rice in the opener in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  They even won the turnover battle 3-0 in that game and still couldn't cover.  Wyoming has a legit defense that returned 10 starters from a unit that allowed just 23.9 points per game last season.  In fact, Wyoming has now allowed 23.9 or fewer points in per in six consecutive seasons under Bohl.  They can hang in this game because of their defense and QB Peasley, plus the letdown factor for Texas.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Hawaii/Oregon CFB ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +38.5

The Oregon Ducks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 81-7 victory over Portland State in the opener.  Portland State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  The Ducks had no business covering against Texas Tech last week, winning 38-30 as 4.5-point favorites only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds when they were leading by 1 with the Red Raiders trying to get down the field for the winning field goal.

Now this is a massive flat spot for the Ducks.  They are coming off that huge road win over Texas Tech last week, and now they have the team that everyone in the country is talking about in the Colorado Buffaloes on deck.  They can't help but look ahead to that game, so I fully expect them to be disinterested in this game against Hawaii.  They will likely not try to pour it on in the 2nd half of this one, which will allow Hawaii to stay within the number.

Hawaii has been grossly undervalued dating back to the second half of last season.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only one loss by more than 13 points in those 11 games.  They deserved to beat Vanderbilt in the opener in a 28-35 loss as 17-point dogs.  They hung with Stanford in their second game, and they beat a very good FCS team in Albany 31-20 as 8-point favorites last week.  

They outgained Albany 379 to 239 for the game, or by 140 total yards.  They outgained Vanderbilt 391 to 297, or by 94 total yards.  Their defense is vastly improved this season allowing 315 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And their offense is learning the run and shoot system and has been solid in averaging 27.7 points per game.  QB Brayden Schager is loving the new system, completing 62.5% of his passes for 972 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Plays against any team (Oregon) - with a +0.75 or better turnover margin against a team with a -0.75 or worst turnover margin, after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on Hawaii due to their poor turnover margin, and a good time to sell high on the Ducks due to their fortunate turnover margin up to this point.  This is a dead nuts sandwich spot for the Ducks, who won't cover this massive number as a result.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +41

The four teams that made the four-team playoff last year have really struggled to start the season in terms of covering spreads.  Michigan is 0-2 ATS, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS, TCU is 0-2 ATS and Georgia is 0-1-1 ATS.  That's a combined 0-7-1 ATS for playoff teams.

To me, this makes sense these teams would struggle to meet the massive expectations set forth by the media, the betting public and thus the oddsmakers.  Michigan literally hasn't scored enough points to cover either of its first two spreads.

The Wolverines beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites and UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites.  Now they are even bigger favorites against Bowling Green this week, and it's not warranted.  I love what I've seen from this Bowling Green team thus far to know that they can stay within this huge number as well.

Bowling Green brought back 13 starters this season from a team that went to a bowl game last year, including eight on offense.  They added former Missouri and Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak at quarterback.  He is completing 59.2% of his passes for 390 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

The opener against Liberty really caught my eye.  They only lost that game 34-24 despite five turnovers.  Liberty went on to blast New Mexico State 33-17 last week while outgaining the Aggies 526 to 339 in total yards.  Bowling Green came back and blasted Eastern Illinois 38-15 as 17-point favorites last week, gaining 509 yards in the win without a turnover and outgaining them by 184 total yards.

Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country offensively.  They rank 128th out of 133 teams in seconds per offensive snap at 31.5 seconds.  Army, Navy and Air Force are three games that are slower than them.  Because they are so slow to snap the ball, the Wolverines get fewer plays in on offense making it very difficult for them to score a lot of points quickly.  Thus, it makes it difficult for them to cover these big spreads, as we've seen to this point.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Georgia Tech/Ole Miss Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgia Tech +19.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

King has been everything the Yellow Jackets had hoped for and more thus far at quarterback.  He is comlpeting 65.6% of his passes for 603 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.  Cooley is averaging 7.6 yards per rush and Jamal Haynes is averaging 8.2 yards per rush.  Georgia Tech deserved to win the opener with a 39-34 loss to Louisville, blowing a 28-13 lead.  They came back with a 48-13 win over South Carolina State last week.

While Georgia Tech was blowing out its last opponent and resting starters in the 4th quarter, Ole Miss was in a dog fight with Tulane and backup QB Kai Horton after Tulane star QB Michael Pratt was a late scratch.  This game was tied 17-17 in the 4th quarter, and was 27-20 with under two minutes to go.  Ole Miss got a 56-yard FG to go up 10, and then a 26-yard fumble return to win 37-20.

That misleading final is giving us great line value on Georgia Tech this week.  Ole Miss only outgained Tulane 363 to 342, or by 21 total yards.  They were in a dog fight with the Green Wave, and now they have their SEC opener on deck against mighty Alabama.  That makes this not only a letdown spot off the Tulane win, but also a lookahead spot with the Crimson Tide on deck.  

I think Ole Miss has the mentality that they can just show up and win this game after beating Georgia Tech 42-0 last year.  But this is a completely different Yellow Jackets team, and I expect them to be in this game for four quarters.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Akron/Kentucky CFB ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 49.5

Kentucky has been a dead nuts UNDER team for years under defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops.  That isn't changing this season.  I have been disappointed in this Kentucky offense that has gotten a lot of hype in the offseason, but this Kentucky defense has saved the day.

Kentucky managed just 357 total yards against Ball State in the opener and scored just 28 points against lowly Eastern Kentucky as a 35.5-point favorite last week.  Now they must face an Akron defense that is much better than they get credit for.

Akron has now allowed 28 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall with a high of 34 points in those eight games.  They allowed 24 points and 365 total yards to Temple in the opener and 21 points and 231 total yards to Morgan State in their first two games.  But they managed just 279 total yards against Temple and 262 total yards against Morgan State.  The Zips have been held to 28 or fewer points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Kentucky is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Kentucky) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against a team that committed five or more turnovers last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on Florida +7

Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida.  Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001.  This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated.

This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana.  I actually like what I've seen from Florida thus far and felt fortunate to cash my Utah -6 ticket in the opener.  The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat.  The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week.

Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback.  Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense.  Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points.  That's an alarming result.

After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, I actually like what I've seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set.  Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener.

I like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay.  I think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week.  If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score.  This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons.  Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* North Texas/LA Tech CFB ANNIHILATOR on OVER 67.5

North Texas has the worst defense in the country.  They gave up 58 points and 669 total yards to California in the opener and 46 points and 514 total yards to Florida International last week.  How bad were those performances?

Consider Cal score just 10 points and had 273 total yards against Auburn the next week.  Florida International managed 17 points against Louisiana Tech and 14 points against Maine in their two other games.  It's safe to say this North Texas defense is horrendous.

I was close to taking Louisiana Tech instead of the OVER in this game, but I think the OVER is the better bet.  Louisiana Tech is going to name their score, and North Texas does still have a pretty good offense and will be up against a very poor Bulldogs defense.

LA Tech allowed 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game in the first season under head coach Sonny Cumbie, who really only cares about offense.  They returned only four starters on defense from that team and are going to be terrible on D again.  They allowed 38 points to SMU two weeks ago and won 51-21 over Northwestern State last week.

North Texas beat LA Tech 47-27 last year for 74 combined points.  North Texas had 671 total yards while Louisiana Tech has 504 total yards.  The Bulldogs are much better offensively this season with transfer QB Hank Beachmeier plus eight returning starters on offense.

North Texas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game.  LA Tech is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Guardians OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five of their last six games. The OVER is 12-1 in Rangers last 13 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 games.

Dane Dunning is 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts for the Rangers.  Dunning is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland.  The Guardians hung 12 runs on the Rangers yesterday and should hang another big number against Dunning and company to help us get this OVER the 8-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Minnesota/UNC Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7.5

I was on North Carolina -2.5 in their opener against South Carolina.  They won that game 31-17 and have been overvalued since.  They needed double-OT to beat Appalachian State 40-34 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  I love fading teams coming off overtime games.

Minnesota didn't deserve to beat Nebraska in the opener but squeaked out a 13-10 win in the final minutes.  The Golden Gophers were much sharper last week in a 25-6 win over a pesky Eastern Michigan team as 18.5-point favorites.  They outgained the Eagles 413 to 152, or by 261 total yards.

Once again the Golden Gophers clearly have an elite defense.  They are allowing just 8.0 points per game, 224 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The offense made some strides last week and should take another step forward this week after an ugly performance against Nebraska in the opener.

North Carolina is far from a defensive juggernaut.  They allowed 219 rushing yards to Appalachian State last week and 494 total yards overall.  The Golden Gophers want to run the ball as they average 40 rushing attempts per game and 176 rushing yards per game.  I'll gladly side with the more physical running team from the Big Ten up against the flashy offensive team in North Carolina from the ACC.

Minnesota reminds me a lot of Iowa.  They have a way of playing close games because of their style.  They can play a close game against a bad team just as easily as a close game against a quality team.  In fact, Minnesota has lost by more than 14 points just once in their last 28 games.  They have only four losses by more than one score in those 28 games.

PJ Fleck is 27-11 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Fleck is 9-1 ATS in road games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards as a head coach.  Fleck will come up with the right game plan to slow down Drake Maye and company.  He won't let Maye beat him over the top and the Tar Heels will have to work for everything they get.  I expect the Golden Gophers to control this game on the ground offensively as well.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Duke CFB ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +18.5

This is a 'buy low' spot on Northwestern and a 'sell high' spot on Duke.  The perception on Northwestern is way down early in the season after head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in the offseason.  If you thought these players were going to lay down, you were mistaken.

The 24-7 loss at Rutgers in the opener doesn't look so bad now after Rutgers blasted Temple 36-7 last week.  Northwestern came back with a dominant 38-7 win over UTEP as a 1-point favorite last week.  That's a quality UTEP team that that won five games last year and brought back 15 starters this year and was expected to be a Top 2 team in Conference USA, just behind Western Kentucky.

Duke is overvalued now after upsetting Clemson in a misleading 28-7 win in the opener.  Clemson had 12 more first downs than Duke and outgained them by 48 yards.  That could prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.  Duke came back and failed to cover in a 42-7 win over Lafayette as 43-point favorites last week.  And now Duke is once again laying too many points this week against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are good enough defensively to keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are allowing 15.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  They brought back eight starters on defense and that is the strength of the team, while the offense cannot possibly be worse than it was a year ago.  Transfer QB Ben Bryant has been solid this season and is a major upgrade at the position.

Plays against home teams (Duke) - a good rushing team averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game against a team that's averaging 100 or fewer rushing yards per game are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +9.5

The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season.  Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio.  Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and I expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset.

Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season.  They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win.  They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards.  Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense.

UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year.  I think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back.  I like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton.

Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) - a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas State/Missouri UNDER 48.5

The Kansas State Wildcats won 10 games and the Big 12 Championship last season.  They have picked up right where they left off last season with a 45-0 win over SE Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite and a 42-13 win over Troy as a 14.5-point favorite.

The Wildcats' front seven looks strong again as they have allowed just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.4 per carry through two games. That makes this a bad matchup for Missouri, which clearly relies heavily on the run to move the football.  After failing to cover in a 35-10 win as 27.5-point home favorites over South Dakota, the Tigers barely escaped with a 23-19 win as 21-point home favorites against Middle Tennessee State.  That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that lost 56-7 to Alabama as a 39-point dog in their opener.

Missouri averages 43 rush attempts per game compared to just 22.5 pass attempts per game thus far.  The Tigers struggled to move the football on the ground against lowly Middle Tennessee.  They rushed for just 112 yards on a whopping 46 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per carry.  They won't be able to run against this much stouter K-State defense, either.  K-State held Missouri to 94 rushing yards on 35 carries last year.

For all the offensive struggles Missouri has had through two games, their defense has been stout.  They are allowing 14.5 points per game, 240 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play.  This will be a big step up in class for this Kansas State offense after facing soft SE Missouri State and Troy defenses.  The Wildcats only managed 336 total yards against Missouri last year while holding the Tigers to 222 total yards.  Five turnovers in that game helped it get to 52 combined points, but that won't happen again.

Missouri ranks 92nd in seconds per play at 27.8 seconds while Kansas State is 52nd at 25.0 seconds per play.  I think the Wildcats will take a lot more time in between plays to snap the football in a hostile atmosphere in their first road game of the season.  Missouri will try and slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win, too.

Missouri is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 Saturday games.  Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Missouri) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing 16 or fewer points per game, in a non-conference game between two Power 5 teams are 34-6 (85%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Ohio UNDER 44

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons and are well on their way to that number or better again this season.  They are allowing just 14.5 points per game, 257 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play against Northern Iowa and Iowa thus far.

The suspensions from the betting scandal hurt Iowa State's offense much more than their defense.  The Cyclones are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 270 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play on offense.

Ohio looks like a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  They are averaging 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have been dynamite defensively, allowing 13.3 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  

These teams are a combined 5-0 UNDER this season with Ohio going for 33, 37 and 27 combined points with their three opponents, and Iowa State going for 39 and 33 combined points against their two opponents.  I see no way these teams to 45-plus combined points Saturday, which is what it's going to take for us to lose this UNDER 44 bet.

Iowa State is 11-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine non-conference games.  Matt Campbell is 14-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Mariners MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The OVER is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Mariners last 12 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 games.  This total is too low for a game involving the Dodgers and Mariners and these two starting pitchers tonight.

Bobby Miller allowed 5 earned runs in 7 innings to the Nationals and 4 earned runs in 6 innings to the Diamondbacks in two of his last three starts coming in.  George Kirby is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 20 base runners in 13 innings.

The Dodgers are 12-2 OVER after scoring one run or fewer last game this season.  The OVER is 12-1 in Dodgers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 13-1 in Dodgers last 14 games vs. a AL team hitting .260 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -130

The Chicago Cubs lost three out of four to Arizona before losing the last two to Colorado last series.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with the Diamondbacks.  They should be bigger favorites in Game 1 when you consider the massive advantage they have on the mound.

Justin Steele is among the NL Cy Young favorites at 16-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 27 starts.  Steele has been untouchable of late, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just one earned run in 21 innings with 26 K's.  He has owned the Diamondbacks with a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 2 earned runs in 18 innings with 25 K's.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 17 homers in 74 2/3 innings.  Pfaadt is 1-5 with a 7.30 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in nine home starts this season.

Arizona is 1-16 after scoring 4 runs or less in four consecutive games this season.  They have now been held to 4 runs or fewer in seven consecutive games while averaging just 2.3 runs per game during this stretch.  The Cubs are 13-2 in Steele's last 15 starts.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Astros/Royals OVER 9.5

Winds will be blowing out to center in Kansas City today with temps in the 70's.  The conditions are right for a slug fest between the Royals and Astros in Game 1 of this series.  Plus, neither of these starting pitchers can be trusted.

Zack Greinke is 1-13 with a 5.46 ERA in 23 starts for the Royals this season.  Greinke has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Houston.  He faced a Houston lineup that has scored at least 6 runs six of their last nine games overall, including 12 or more runs in four of those nine games.

Christian Javier is 9-3 with a 4.78 ERA in 27 starts this season, 4-1 with a 5.51 ERA in 15 road starts, and 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in his last three starts.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 7-4 loss to the Royals in his lone career start against them.  He faces a Royals lineup that has scored a combined 18 runs in their last two games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* AL GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Rangers -116

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five consecutive games now.  They get to face a Cleveland Guardians team that has quit, going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and one that has nothing to play for the rest of the way.

The Rangers have a big advantage on the mound behind Jon Gray, who is 8-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Gray has done his best work on the road, going 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.

Lucas Giolito is an absolute gas can for the Guardians and pitching on his 3rd different team this season.  He is 7-13 with a 4.89 ERA in 29 starts this season with a whopping 36 homers allowed.  Giolito is 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 15 2/3 innings.

Giolito's teams are 1-11 in his last 12 starts overall.  Giolito's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

15* Rangers/Guardians AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five consecutive games now.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own.

Lucas Giolito is an absolute gas can for the Guardians and pitching on his 3rd different team this season.  He is 7-13 with a 4.89 ERA in 29 starts this season with a whopping 36 homers allowed.  Giolito is 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 15 2/3 innings.

Giolito allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings of a 7-3 loss to the Rangers in his lone start against them this season.  The OVER is 4-1 in his five career starts against Texas.  I don't expect Jon Gray to be perfect for the Rangers.  He did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings in a 12-4 victory over the Guardians in his lone career start against them.  The OVER is 3-0 in Gray's three previous starts against Cleveland.

The OVER is 11-1 in Rangers last 12 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Red Sox/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The OVER is 4-0 in Blue Jays last four games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all four.  The OVER is 21-5-1 in Red Sox last 27 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 22 of those 27 games and 9 or more combined runs in 23 of them.

Jose Berrios is 10-10 with a 3.63 ERA in 29 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Berrios is 2-6 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 13 career starts against Boston.  He has allowed 12 earned runs, 6 homers and 24 base runners in 17 innings in three starts against the Red Sox in 2023 alone.

Bryan Bello is 1-2 with a 6.50 ERA and 2.056 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays, all of which have come over the past two seasons.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 37 base runners in 18 innings in those four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Army +9

The weather is going to favor Army in this one.  There is a 60% chance of rain with 13 MPH winds forecast for this game at UTSA Friday night.  I'll gladly side with the triple-option team in Army against a UTSA team that relies heavily on throwing to move the football given these conditions.

I also think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites last week.  Due to the nature of that blowout, they were able to rest some starters in the second half and remain fresh for this game that will be played on a short week.  That will be a big advantage for a team that returned 17 starters from last year and is loaded again this year.

UTSA has been massively disappointing thus far.  They may finally start coming back to the pack after several successful seasons in a row.  The Roadrunners were upset 17-14 by Houston in their opener.  That's a Houston team that just lost outright to Rice last week, so that loss looks even worse now.  Then last week UTSA only beat Texas State 20-13 as 14-point home favorites in a lackluster performance.

Based on what I've seen from UTSA thus far, they have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against Army.  UTSA also has a hobbled quarterback in Frank Harris, who was seen in a walking boot this week.  Even if he goes he won't be 100%, and that could help explain how they only managed 20 points last week against a pitiful Texas State defense.

Army wants revenge from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA as 2.5-point underdogs last year.  They gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 2-0.  Army won 28-16 at UTSA in 2020 and 31-13 at UTSA in 2019.  They have pretty much owned this head-to-head series, and I expect them to have a great shot to win this game outright Friday night.

UTSA is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 home games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  UTSA is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Army) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play last game, with an inexperienced QB as a starter in the first month of the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Army Friday.

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Minnesota +7.5

Two teams coming off misleading finals square off Thursday night.  The Minnesota Vikings were upset by the Tampa Bay Bucs 20-17 as 4-point favorites when they had no business losing that game when you dive into the box score.  The Philadelphia Eagles won 25-20 at New England to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a game they had no business winning when you look at the box score.

Backing 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS against 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS in Week 2 is a winning proposition.  It's simply fading public perception and overreactions from Week 1.  The Vikings are much better than their final score showed against the Bucs, while the Eagles aren't nearly as good as their final score showed against the Patriots.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.  The Vikings look to have an improved defense this year, which is something they have been missing.  And the offense is as explosive as ever.

The Patriots basically handed the Eagles two touchdowns with a 70-yard interception return TD and another turnover that set up a short field only minutes later.  The Eagles led 16-0 in a blink of an eye in the first quarter.  But the Patriots were the much better team for the final three quarters.

The Patriots outgained the Eagles 382 to 251, or by 131 total yards.  The Patriots outgained the Eagles 4.9 yards per play to 4.1, or by 0.8 yards per play.  The Eagles struggled to get anything going offensively, and now that teams have film on Jalen Hurts he might not be nearly as good as he was last year.  Hurts only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush and was sacked three times.

The Vikings want revenge from a 24-7 loss on primetime to the Eagles last year.  That was a rare game decided by more than one score for the Vikings.  In fact, 13 of their last 17 games have been decided by one score dating back to last season.  LB Dean is out for the Eagles, CB Bradberry is doubtful, and DT Cox is questionable to really make their defense short-handed.  The Vikings are nearly fully healthy for this one.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* Rays/Orioles AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own, again.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last seven games overall.  The OVER is 9-2 in their last 11 games overall. This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Orioles right now.

The Rays are hot at the plate as well scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They should get to Kyle Bradish, who is 1-2 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa Bay and just cannot seem to figure them out.

Aaron Civale is faltering coming into this one allowing 7 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Civale has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore, so he cannot seem to figure out the Orioles either.

The OVER is 9-1 in Civale's last 10 September starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8

The OVER is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 games.  This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Rangers, who have scored 35 runs in their last four games and are averaging 5.5 runs per game this season.

The Blue Jays are scoring 4.6 runs per game and should get to Nathan Eovaldi and this Texas bullpen.  Eovaldi has been relegated to opener duty due to injury.  When he exits, the Texas bullpen has a 4.88 ERA this season.

Kevin Gausman has been solid this season, but not even he can slow down this Texas lineup at this point.  Gausman has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Texas.

Texas is 41-24 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  The Rangers are 9-1 OVER following a shutout victory this season.  Toronto is 14-4 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs per game per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Padres/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in six consecutive games and the OVER is 7-0-1 in their last eight games overall.  The San Diego Padres are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 31 runs themselves and going for 12 or more combined runs in all five.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 17 games overall.

With how hot both offenses have been, the books are giving these two starting pitchers too much respect.  Blake Snell is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young right now, and the Dodgers would love nothing more than to get to him and hurt his chances.  Ryan Pepiot has good numbers in limited action for the Dodgers, but this is a big step up in class for him here.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8

The OVER is 9-1 in Rangers last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games.  This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Rangers, who have scored 25 runs in their last three games and are averaging 5.5 runs per game this season, including 6.0 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

The Blue Jays are scoring 4.8 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season and should get to lefty Jordan Montgomery, who is really struggling of late.  Montgomery is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.

Yusei Kikuchi is also getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 28 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts.

Texas is 40-24 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  Toronto is 13-4 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs per game per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Phillies OVER 9

The Phillies are hot at the plate right now scoring at least 4 runs in 13 of their last 15 games overall, including 5 runs or more in 11 of those contests.  The Braves have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games, including 5 runs or more in eight of those contests.

Spencer Strider commands a lot of respect every time he takes the mound.  But he is getting too much of it here.  Strider is 16-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts this season.  He has really struggled in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Strider has also allowed 8 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Phillies.  Christopher Sanchez has been solid for the Phillies this season, but he hasn't had to face the potent Braves yet.  I expect Atlanta to get to him, too.  

The OVER is 8-1 in Braves last nine games overall.  The OVER is 10-5 in Phillies last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings in this series with 18, 12 and 13 combined runs.  It will be more of the same today.  Philadelphia is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games vs. NL teams with a .440 slugging percentage or better.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Orioles OVER 10

The Baltimore Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own, again.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last six games overall.  The OVER is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Cardinals have been hot at the plate themselves.  They have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 7-3 in those 10 games.

Drew Rom is an absolute gas can for the Cardinals.  He is 0-2 with a 7.79 ERA and 2.018 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Kyle Gibson is a gas can for the Orioles as well, going 14-8 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 12 home starts.

The OVER is 20-4 in Gibson's last 24 home starts in September.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Padres/Dodgers OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in five consecutive games and the OVER is 6-0-1 in their last seven games overall.  The San Diego Padres are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall while scoring a total of 29 runs themselves and going for 12 or more combined runs in all four.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 16 games overall.

Lance Lynn is an absolute gas can for the Dodgers.  He is 10-11 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 28 starts this season while allowing a whopping 40 homers.  Lynn has allowed 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts for a 15.00 ERA.

Michael Wacha recently returned from injury and has not been very sharp.  He is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 27 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Wacha cannot figure out the Dodgers, going 3-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He has allowed 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.

Lynn is 9-1 OVER vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game this season.  The OVER is 20-8 in Lynn's 28 starts this season.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -173

The Chicago Cubs are fighting for a playoff spot and to stay alive in the NL Central.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-17 in their last 20 games overall to fall to 51-92 on the season and simply just going through the motions right now waiting for the season to be over.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big juice on the Cubs today.

I also like what I've seen from Chicago starter Javier Assad, who is 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in four road starts.  The Cubs have a massive advantage on the mound in this one.

This is more of a fade of Chris Flexen than anything.  Flexen has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, going 1-7 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in 12 starts while allowing a whopping 50 earned runs and 17 homers in 56 innings.  Flexen faced the Cubs earlier this season, allowing 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 14-9 defeat.

Colorado is 2-19 vs. NL teams that average 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Orioles OVER 10

The Baltimore Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own, again.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last five games overall.  The OVER is 9-0 in their last nine games overall and that streak will extend to 10 straight overs today.

The reason I say they are capable of covering this total on their own is not only because they are hot at the plate, but now they get to face one of the worst starters in all of baseball.  Adam Wainwright is 3-11 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 2-4 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.905 WHIP in nine road starts.

The Cardinals have been hot at the plate themselves.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games.  They should be able to get to John Means, who will be making his first start of the season for the Orioles.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in four consecutive games and the OVER is 5-0-1 in their last six games overall.  The San Diego Padres are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall while scoring a total of 18 runs themselves and going for 12 or more combined runs in all three.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 12 of their last 15 games overall.

Two gas cans go tonight for these teams.  Gavin Stone is 0-0 with a 14.40 ERA and 3.000 WHIP as a starter this season, allowing 16 earned runs and 30 base runners in 10 innings for the Dodgers.  Pedro Avila is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 12 runs, 7 earned, and 31 base runners in 18 innings.

The Dodgers are 20-5 OVER in their last 25 games following two consecutive games where they stranded 10 or more base runners.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -166

The Chicago Cubs are fighting for a playoff spot and to stay alive in the NL Central.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-16 in their last 19 games overall to fall to 51-91 on the season and simply just going through the motions right now waiting for the season to be over.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big juice on the Cubs today.

I also like what I've seen from Chicago starter Jordan Wicks, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in three starts this season.  He'll be opposed by lefty Kyle Freeland, who is 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  The Cubs are hitting .270 and scoring 5.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Freeland allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Cubs in his last start against them.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +2.5

The Jets finally got their quarterback and have one of the most complete teams in the NFL now.  They arguably have the league's best defense, and Rodgers is loaded with playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and the ageless Randall Cobb.  The only concern with the Packers is their offensive line, but Rodgers' checks at the line of scrimmage and quick release always makes up for offensive line problems.

The Jets are going to have a huge home-field advantage in this game as fans are going nuts about this team in the offseason.  The hype is real, and we're going to see that in Week 1.  The Bills are missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller, who has been placed on the PUP list.  Without him, the Bills won't be able to exploit the one weakness on the Jets in their O-Line.  I also wasn't impressed with the Bills at all in the preseason as Josh Allen struggled to move the ball and put up points when he was in there.  The interior of the offensive line is a weakness, and the Jets will exploit it.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field in his career and was only an underdog eight times.  Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Rodgers is also a perfect 9-0 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013.  Week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998.  Finally, this is the anniversary of 9-11, so that will only add to the raucous crowd the Jets will have in support of them.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3.5

The New York Giants didn't get much credit for going 9-7-1 in Brian Daboll's first season and winning a playoff game.  That's evident by the fact that they have opened as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.  They are once again getting disrespected, and we'll take advantage here.

I don't think Kellen Moore was the problem last year for the Cowboys, but he was definitely the scapegoat.  I just don't trust Mike McCarthy and don't think it's going to work with him long-term.  The Cowboys have a ton of offensive skill talent, but the offensive line is becoming an issue now after previously being a strength.  They could be without LG Tyler Smith, who was added to the injury report this week.  RG Zack Martin is in the midst of a holdout.  The strength of the Giants is their defensive line, and they will win the battle at the line of scrimmage against Dallas' offensive line.

Daboll didn't have many weapons for Daniel Jones to work with last year, but he should have a few more this year.  They added TE Darren Waller and WR Jalin Hyatt.  The offensive line should also be better with 2nd-round pick C John Michael Schmitz Jr to go along with Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal, who has to be better after being a Top 10 pick two years ago.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy.  The Giants went 6-5-1 SU & 10-2 ATS as underdogs under Daboll last season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.