15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Falcons +2.5

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I think everyone is sleeping on Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr.  He led the Washington Huskies to the national championship game and got Kalen DeBoer the head coaching job at Alabama.  He is the real deal, and he showed it when he took over for Kirk Cousins down the stretch last year.  He has ample weapons in London, Bijan Robinson, Pitts and several complementary receivers to get the most out of his talents.

But it's the improvement on defense that should be most noticeable.  The Falcons have struggled to find a pass rush for years, so they used two first-round picks on Georgia's Jalen Walker and Tennessee's James Pearce Jr. They also added former 49er Leonard Floyd.

The Tampa Bay Bucs figure to take a step back this season.  They went 10-7 last year to win the NFC South before losing at home to the Commanders.  They lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jaguars, and he was responsible for Baker Mayfield's career season last year.  I don't see Baker being as effective without Coen calling the shots moving forward.

The Bucs are missing some key pieces to open the season due to injury in WR Chris Godwin Jr., WR Jalen McMillian and their best offensive lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Keep in mind the Falcons beat the Bucs in both meetings last season even with Kirk Cousins, so they know how to beat this team.  They'll be extra motivated to knock off the defending division champs in the opener at home.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Jets UNDER 38.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.  I expect their offense to get off to a slow start with Aaron Rodgers signing with the team so late in the season.  Mike Tomlin is 32-9 UNDER as a road favorite in his career.

The New York Jets are going to be a defensive-minded team under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn, who was the defensive coordinator of the Lions last year.  They do have a proven defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks and a lot of talent on that side of the ball for him to get the most out of.  

But the offense is going to be a mess with Justin Fields at QB, very little talent around him and a young, banged up offensive line.  They will be learning new schemes under new coordinator Tanner Engstrand and won't hit the ground running at all.  Speaking of running, the Jets will be a power running team this season because their offense is limited with Fields' inability to pass the football consistently.

I also like the UNDER due to these teams' familiarity with these two starting quarterbacks.  Rodgers was with the Jets last year, while Fields was with the Steelers.  Both defensive coordinators will be able to scheme it up to take away their strengths and expose their weaknesses.  There has also been a lot of rain Sunday morning that could mess up the field.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs made easy work of Southern Miss in a 34-17 win as 14-point favorites in the opener.  They led 34-10 before calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  They won and covered against a Southern Miss team that many are very high on due to getting Marshall head coach Charlie Huff and many of his players from a team that won the Sun Belt last season.  Shapen was sharp, going 26-of-34 passing for 270 yards in the win.  They gained 465 yards and 5.9 per play and held the Eagles to 301 yards and 4.1 per play.

While I think Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season, I also feel Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites.  They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it.  I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.  The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

Mississippi State wants revenge from a 30-23 road loss at Arizona State last season.  Shapen played well going 18-of-28 passing for 268 yards and 2 TD in the loss.  Leavitt only went 10-of-20 for 69 yards in the win.  That's because they relied so heavily on Skattebo, who had a whopping 262 rushing yards in the win, while also finishing as the leading receiver with 35 yards.  He accounted for 297 of their 415 total yards!  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on USC -27.5

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season with five of their losses coming by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

The Trojans are off and running blasting Missouri State 73-13 as 35.5-point favorites in Week 1.  Jordan Maiva finished strong last season and is off to a great start this season and a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy.  Maiava went 15-of-18 passing for 295 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for a score in the opener.  He will have another big game here as the Trojans make easy work of Georgia Southern.

The Eagles opened with a 42-14 loss at Fresno State as 1-point underdogs.  That loss to a rebuilding Fresno State team with a first-year head coach looks real bad when you consider Fresno State lost 31-7 at Kansas in Week 0.  The Eagles have no hope of keeping this game within four touchdowns of USC if they couldn't do it against Fresno.  The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards and totaled 527 total yards against the Eagles.  You can only imagine what this potent USC offense is going to do to this defense.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Georgia Southern/USC OVER 60.5

USC covered the total on their own in a 73-13 win over Missouri State in their opener in Week 1.  I think they are capable of doing the same thing here against Georgia Southern to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 60.5 ticket.

Georgia Southern allowed 42 points to Fresno State in Week 1.  That's really poor when you consider Fresno State managed just 7 points against Kansas in Week 0.  The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards and totaled 527 total yards against the Eagles.  You can only imagine what this potent USC offense under Lincoln Riley and Heisman candidate Jordan Maiava is going to do to this defense.

Georgia Southern should do enough to contribute to this total.  The Eagles do return their QB and two of their top three receivers under offensive-minded head coach Clay Helton.  They will continue to try and score late even if they are getting blown out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on San Francisco Giants -121

The San Francisco Giants are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall to pull within 4 games of the Mets and Padres for the final two wild card spots in the National League.  They have huge momentum right now and really feel like they have a shot.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 6.5 back and starting to realize their season is pretty much over.  They played like it yesterday in a 8-2 loss to the Giants, and it won't get any easier for them today with gas can Andre Pallante on the mound.

Pallante is 6-13 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 5.91 ERA in 13 home starts.  Pallante has been dreadful in his last five starts, going 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.14 WHIP while allowing 24 earned runs and 47 base runners in 22 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in two career starts against the Giants for a 6.97 ERA.

Justin Verlander continues to pitch at a high level despite his age.  He has posted a 2.98 ERA in his last eight starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts.  Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Army +17.5

I successfully faded Army last week cashing Tarleton State +14.5 in a 30-27 upset win in OT over the Black Knights.  Now I think it's time to 'buy low' on Army off that upset loss to what I believe is one of the best FCS teams in the country in Tarleton State.  The betting public tends to really put too much stock into poor performances against FCS teams.

It's like they are completely ignoring the fact that Kansas State should have lost outright to a much worse FCS team in North Dakota last week.  After losing 24-21 to Iowa State as a 3-point favorite in Ireland, the Wildcats were flat as expected last week in a 38-35 win over North Dakota as 27.5-point favorites.  They needed a game-winning TD with 42 seconds left just to escape with the victory.

I think this is already a tired Kansas State team after the trip to Ireland and two games that went down to the wire.  That's bad news going up against Army, a team that will test your will defensively by running for 3-4 yards at a time in a physical style of football.  Army will also shorten the game, so getting 17.5 points here is a great value.

Army allowed just 15.5 points per game last season and has another good defense with five of their top nine tacklers returning, including their top two.  This Kansas State defense looks awful thus far allowing 24 points to Iowa State and 35 to North Dakota.  The Wildcats only returned 10 starters this season including five on defense, losing four of their top six tacklers.

I think QB Avery Johnson is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  The offense has missed DJ Giddens, who rushed for 1,343 yards last season.  RB Dylan Edwards was supposed to be their workhorse this season, but he has been out with an injury and may not return this week.

With another Big 12 game on deck Friday at Arizona, I think Kansas State won't put everything into this game.  The Wildcats will be in for a 3rd straight dog fight to start the season, and that's exactly the type of football the Black Knights live for.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +265

The Chicago White Sox are coming off six consecutive wins as +154, +156, +123, +146, +126 and +168 underdogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here as big underdogs again to a Detroit Tigers team that is just going through the motions right now.

Knowing they already have the AL Central locked up, the Tigers have gone 3-8 in their last 11 games overall with six losses as favorites.  They definitely should not be this big of a favorite against the White Sox today even with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound.

The lack of respect for Chicago's Martin Perez is mind blowing.  Perez has posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 41 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 innings in his last two starts.  I'll gladly take a shot on him at this price today.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arkansas State/Arkansas OVER 63.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino.  Petrino returned as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season.  Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7.  This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs.  Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Arkansas State, which called them out for not playing them in previous seasons.  They want to make a statement after all that shit talk, and although I like Arkansas to cover the spread as well, I think it favors the OVER more.

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones.  The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season.  You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D.  They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Rayno, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores.  Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points.  Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD.  Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team.  I expect Arkansas to score 50-plus to lead the way, and Raynor and company tacking off enough scores to get this game OVER this 63.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +18.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

There will be no letdown here against big brother Florida as the Bulls will actually want this win more.  They also get the benefit of an extra day of rest and preparation after playing Boise State last Friday.  I think they show they can hang here for four quarters.

Florida is much less battle-tested after a 55-0 win over one of the worst teams in the FCS in Long Island.  The Gators have a big game against LSU on deck in their SEC opener and won't want to show more than they have to.  But I think they will get more of a fight from USF than they bargained for.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* USF/Florida SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

USF scored 34 points on a very good Boise State defense in Week 1.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand or they could have scored more.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with a great, up-tempo offense and mediocre defense.

Florida's offense is in good hands with QB DJ Lagway and eight returning starters on offense.  Lagway played well as a freshman taking over for an injured Graham Mertz.  He was the #3 rated QB in the country coming out of high school.  The Gators hung 55 points on Long Island in the opener and should hang a pretty big number on this USF defense as well.  This total of 55.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/Navy OVER 58.5

Navy had one of its best offenses in program history last season with 31.3 points per game.  The Midshipmen should be even more potent this season considering they return eight starters on offense including QB Blake Horvath, who rushed for 1,246 yards and 17 TD while also throwing for 1,353 yards and 13 TD last season.  They return all of their top playmakers as well.

Navy blasted VMI 52-7 in the opener for 59 combined points.  The Midshipmen should do the heavy lifting in covering this 58.5-point total against UAB as well.  But the Blazers should also have plenty of success on offense which is their strong suit.  Navy loses six starters on D including their top three tacklers and two who had over 100 tackles last season.

UAB's defense won't offer much more resistance than VMI.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State last week and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.  He will keep coming even if Navy is winning in a blowout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Cubs have a lot more to play for than the Nationals and a big advantage on the mound today.  There will be 15-20 MPH sustained winds blowing out to right-center so runs will be plentiful, which is why I'll back the Cubs to win this game by multiple runs on the Run Line again today.

Matthew Boyd is 12-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Boyd allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his lone start against Washington this season back on June 4th.

He'll be opposed by Brad Lord, who is 4-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts and 29 relief appearances this season.  Lord has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 12.08 ERA.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Nationals and Cubs today.  There will be steady 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Cubs beat the Nationals 11-5.

I expect the Cubs to cover this total on their own against Brad Lord, who is 4-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts and 29 relief appearances this season.  Lord has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 12.08 ERA.

While Matthew Boyd is the far superior starter here, he has regressed of late and will give up enough runs to the Nationals if need be.  Boyd has allowed 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 7.21 ERA during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could not have been more impressive in their 2-0 start to the season.  They upset Kansas State 24-21 as 3-point underdogs in Ireland in Week 0, and instead of having a letdown they handled their business in a 55-7 win over South Dakota as 16.5-point home favorites in Week 1.

Kansas State returned from Ireland and nearly lost outright to North Dakota, winning 38-35 as 27.5-point favorites after a late score.  And North Dakota won 2 games in conference last year while South Dakota won the conference with a 7-1 record last year and brought back a lot of key pieces from that team.  South Dakota was a Top 5 ranked FCS team when Iowa State beat them last week.

Iowa State has one of the best QB's in the country in Rocco Becht, who is completing 68.8% of his passes for 461 yards with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a score thus far.  The Cyclones have arguably the deepest TE room in the country and they are using them marvelously thus far.  Brahmer has 9 receptions for 88 yards and 2 TD, while Burkle has 116 yards and a TD through two games.

Death, taxes and poor QB play at Iowa.  Talk about an underwhelming first start for South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski.  He went 8-of-15 for 44 yards averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt against dreadful FCS Albany in a 34-7 win as 39.5-point favorites in Week 1.  Iowa actually trailed 7-3 midway through the 2nd quarter in that game.  The Hawkeyes only averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense, and it's clear this offense is a problem again.

Iowa State has turned the corner against Iowa after many years of suffering.  Let's just look at the yardage totals the last five years under Matt Campbell.  Iowa State has 1,721 yards averaging 344.2 yards per game in its last five meetings with the Hawkeyes.  Iowa has totaled just 1,174 yards and an average of 234.8 yards per game in those five meetings.  So the Cyclones are outgaining the Hawkeyes by 110 yards per game over the last five meetings.

Of course, Iowa has found a way to win three of those games as they usually have one big swing play go in their favor.  But the Cyclones are now more disciplined than ever, and they have more ways to beat you with their passing game.  Iowa is too predictable and Iowa State will be able to load the box to try and make Gronowski beat them.  I don't think he'll be up to task in his first taste of this huge rivalry on the road.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Iowa/Iowa State UNDER 42.5

This is a dead nuts UNDER rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State.  The UNDER is 17-3 in the last 20 meetings between the Cyclones and Hawkeyes.  13 of the last 20 meetings have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  Five of the last six meetings have seen 39 points or fewer.

Death, taxes and poor QB play at Iowa.  Talk about an underwhelming first start for South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski.  He went 8-of-15 for 44 yards averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt against dreadful FCS Albany in a 34-7 win as 39.5-point favorites in Week 1.  The Hawkeyes only averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense, and it's clear this offense is a problem again.

Iowa will have to rely on running the football and playing defense to try and keep this game competitive, which they have done under Kirk Ferentz's entire tenure.  Iowa State has had one of the better defenses in the country under Matt Campbell.  The Cyclones have allowed 22.9 points per game or fewer in five consecutive seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Baylor +3

Baylor is loaded this season with 18 returning starters including QB Sawyer Robinson, one of the best QB's in the country.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Bears after losing 38-24 at home to a very good team from the SEC in Auburn in Week 1.  They will be highly motivated to avoid an 0-2 start.

Baylor went 6-0 in their final six games last season before losing to LSU in the bowl game, so their only two losses are to two SEC teams during this stretch.  And that loss to Auburn was very misleading, as was the loss to LSU.  They outgained LSU 507 to 427.

Baylor also outgained Auburn 483 to 415 for the game and 6.7 to 6.0 yards per play.  The difference was Auburn had a KO return TD, and Baylor was stopped on downs twice inside the 10-yard line.

Speaking of misleading, SMU beat East Texas A&M 42-13 as 50.5-point favorites last week.  But SMU had two pick 6's and only outgained lowly East Texas A&M by 51 yards!  I think the Mustangs are overvalued after making the 12-team playoff last year, and that was evident last week.  They should not be favored over Baylor this week.  

SMU only returns 12 starters and loses Brashard Smith who rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 TD last season.  They also lose their top two receivers.  WR Jordan Hudson, their 3rd-leading receiver from last year, is doubtful after sustaining an injury against East Texas A&M.  Starting LB Alexander Kilgore is questionable.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3

The Kansas City Chiefs lost the Super Bowl last year in a blowout to the Philadelphia Eagles.  Super Bowl losers tend to have hangovers the following season, especially in Week 1.  Since 2000, the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous season is just 5-19 ATS in Week 1.

Amazingly, the Kansas City Chiefs went 12-0 in one-score games including the playoffs last year.  That includes six wins by 3 points or fewer.  Their luck ran out against the Eagles, and I think their luck will run out again this season as I actually have the Broncos winning the AFC West.

The Chiefs got weaker on the offensive line and will be without two key receivers in Rashee Rice (suspension) and Jalen Royals (4th-round pick, injury) to start the season.  This will be a very vanilla Kansas City offense again, and the aging defense figures to regress.

Jim Harbaugh is one of the best head coaches in the NFL.  The Chargers are also going to be in contention in the AFC West in Year 2 for Harbaugh.  He guided them to an 11-6 season in his first year on the job.  The core of the team returns, plus they added impact rookies to give Justin Herbert the playmakers he was lacking last season.

They used their first-round pick in UNC RB Omarion Hampton and their second-round pick on WR Tre Harris out of Ole Miss.  They also brought back WR Keenan Allen, who has a tremendous connection with Herbert.  They are fully healthy heading into Week 1 with the exception of LT Rashawn Slater.

After losing their 1st meeting with the Chiefs 17-10 with a banged up Herbert, the Chargers gave the Chiefs all they wanted in a 19-17 road loss in their 2nd meeting.  Amazingly, four of the last six meetings in this series were decided by 3 points or fewer, so getting 3 points with the Chargers in this neutral site game in Brazil is a great value.  Bet the Chargers Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Northern Illinois +17.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Northern Illinois after a 19-17 win as 13.5-point favorites over FCS Holy Cross in their opener.  There's always a lot of value on teams who struggle against FCS teams moving forward as the betting public factors it in too much.

It's time to 'sell high' on Maryland after a very misleading 39-7 win over Florida Atlantic as 13.5-point favorites.  Maryland got a Pick 6 in that game and forced 6 turnovers as the Owls basically handed them the game.

Most concerning is that Maryland averaged just 4.9 yards per play against FAU.  The Terrapins only outgained the Owls by 26 yards for the game and had few first downs than FAU.  I just don't think this Maryland team is very good this season and that will show on Friday.

NIU did hold Holy Cross to just 218 total yards and 11 first downs, so the defense is good again this season.  The Huskies outgained them by 71 yards for the game.

Northern Illinois has had great success against Power 4 teams in recent years.  Last year, they upset Notre Dame as 28-point dogs handing the Fighting Irish their only regular season loss. They also lost to NC State by 7 on the road last season.  They upset Boston College as 8-point road dogs in 2023.  They lost by 10 to Vanderbilt and by 8 to Kentucky as 26-point dogs in 2022.  They upset Georgia Tech as 19-point road dogs in 2021.  The Huskies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games against Big Ten opponents.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Reds OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Mets and Reds tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at game time at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

The Mets come in red hot at the plate scoring a total of 52 runs in their last six games for an average of 8.7 runs per game.  The Reds are also hot scoring 30 runs in their last four games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  

The Reds are 4-0 OVER in their last four home games going for 9 or more combined runs in all four games, including 21 and 22 combined runs in their last two against the Blue Jays.  The Mets and their opponents have combined for at least 9 runs in 13 of their last 17 games overall.

David Peterson was rocked for 8 earned runs in 2 innings in a 11-8 loss to the Marlins in his last start.  Andrew Abbott has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts for the Reds.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +172

The Chicago White Sox are coming off five consecutive wins as +154, +156, +123, +146 and +126 underdogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here as big underdogs again to a Detroit Tigers team that is just going through the motions right now.

Knowing they already have the AL Central locked up, the Tigers have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games overall with five losses as favorites.  They definitely should not be this big of a favorite with gas can Jack Flaherty on the mound.

Flaherty is 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in 27 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 19 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings.  Flaherty allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-6 loss to the White Sox on August 12th as a -161 favorite in his last start against them.

Shane Smith is having a great season for the White Sox going 4-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Smith is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing just 8 earned runs and 26 base runners in 29 1/3 innings.  Better yet, Smith has fired 10 1/3 shutout innings in two starts against the Tigers this season.  Bet the White Sox Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Tigers OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the White Sox and Tigers tonight.  There are expected to be steady 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Detroit tonight.  Both offenses are read hot coming into this one as well.

The Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games and are scoring 4.82 runs per game on the season. The White Sox have scored a total of 33 runs in their last four games for an average of 8.3 runs per game.

Jack Flaherty is 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in 27 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 19 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings.  Flaherty allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-6 loss to the White Sox on August 12th as a -161 favorite in his last start against them.

Shane Smith is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  I expect the White Sox to hang a big number on Flaherty, and for the Tigers to do enough offensively against Smith and this taxed Chicago bullpen to get this OVER 8.5 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Cubs OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Nationals and Cubs today.  There will be steady 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight.

I expect the Cubs to cover this total on their own against Jake Irvin, who is 8-10 with a 5.42 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Irvin is 0-4 with a 8.37 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 2/3 innings.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 innings.

Javier Assad will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Cubs.  He is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four starts.  He is no more than a fill in starter for the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Cubs have a lot more to play for than the Nationals and a big advantage on the mound today.  There will be 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center so runs will be plentiful, which is why I'll back the Cubs to win this game by multiple runs on the Run Line today.

Jake Irvin is 8-10 with a 5.42 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Irvin is 0-4 with a 8.37 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 2/3 innings.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 innings.

Javier Assad is 15-12 with a 3.44 ERA in 314 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He has proven he can hang and will limit the Nationals enough to win this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +140

The Chicago White Sox are coming off four consecutive wins over the Yankees as +154 dogs, the Twins as +156 dogs, the Twins again as +123 dogs and the Twins again last night as +146 dogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here as big underdogs again to a Twins team that has been eliminated from playoff contention and are playing like it.

The Twins have no business being this big of a favorite against anyone, let alone with one of their worst starting pitcher on the mound tonight.  Taj Bradley is 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 23 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 5.14 ERA in 12 home starts.

Bradley has allowed 12 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  One of those starts came against the White Sox on August 24th when he was rocked for 7 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-0 loss.  Chicago will get to him again tonight.  Bet the White Sox Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 46.5

The Eagles are the clear-cut best team in the NFC this season in my opinion.  They bring back their core from the team that won the Super Bowl especially on offense.  They are loaded once again with one of the best O-Lines in the NFL, plus the quartet of Hurts, Barkley, Brown and Smith.  The Eagles did have some key losses on defense that could have them taking a step back this season.

The Cowboys are also loaded on offense with a healthy Dak Prescott throwing the ball to Lamb, Pickens, Tolbert, Ferguson and Turpin.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts all season because their defense is going to be terrible.

They already had one of the worst defenses in the league, and it's even worse now without Micah Parsons.  They ranked 10th against the pass last season with Parsons on the field, but 31st without him.  That includes dead last (32nd) allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt without him on the field.

The Eagles scored 41 and 34 points in their two meetings with the Cowboys last season.  They will hang another big number Thursday night to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Cowboys should do their part scoring enough playing from behind to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NFL Season Opener on Philadelphia -7

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I grabbed the Eagles -7 as soon as the Micah Parsons news came out and would still play it above 7.  But this is a prime example as to why my long-term subscribers get the best line available upon release, while clients who sign up later in the week don't have that advantage.

The Eagles are the clear-cut best team in the NFC this season in my opinion.  They bring back their core from the team that won the Super Bowl especially on offense.  They are loaded once again with one of the best O-Lines in the NFL, plus the quartet of Hurts, Barkley, Brown and Smith.

They are still loaded along the front seven defensively and at cornerback, though they do lose a few key pieces in the secondary.  Either way, Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league and they will once again be among the league's best.

The Cowboys remain a dumpster fire under Jerry Jones.  They are going through coaching changes once again and will be breaking in all new schemes with every unit.  They already had one of the worst defenses in the league, and it's even worse now without Parsons.  They ranked 10th against the pass last season with Parsons on the field, but 31st without him.  That includes dead last (32nd) allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt without him on the field.

Since 2000, Super Bowl champs from the previous season are 21-4 SU & 14-9-2 ATS.  They tend to come out with their hair on fire in front of their home fans, and I think that will be the case for the Eagles tonight as they make easy work of the Cowboys.  The Eagles won both meetings in blowouts last season 41-7 at home and 34-6 on the road.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-135)

The San Francisco Giants are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with seven of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  They have scored a total of 76 runs in those 10 games for an average of 7.6 runs per game.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall and are playing their best baseball of the season.

The Rockies are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall with eight losses by 3 runs or more.  It won't get any easier for them tonight against Robbie Ray, who is 10-6 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Ray is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this season, allowing 2 earned runs in 11 innings with 13 K's.

German Marquez is 3-12 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  He allowed 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings tot he Cubs in his last start.  Marquez is 5-11 with a 6.90 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 18 career starts against the Giants, allowing 71 earned runs in 92 2/3 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings in his lone start against the Giants this season.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Phillies/Brewers NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight.  The Brewers are scoring 5.12 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.78 runs per game.  Both lineups should have their way with these two starting pitchers, similar to Game 1 when the Phillies won 10-8 for 18 combined runs.

Aaron Nola is 3-7 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Phillies.  Nola has been a disaster since returning from the IL, posting a 7.53 ERA in his three starts since allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.

Regression hit Jose Quintana hard in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The veteran is in line to get rocked again today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +163

The Chicago White Sox are coming off three consecutive wins over the Yankees as +154 dogs, the Twins as +156 dogs and the Twins again as +123 dogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here against a Twins team that has been eliminated from playoff contention and are playing like it.

The Twins have no business being this big of a favorite against anyone, let alone with their worst starting pitcher on the mound tonight.  Zebby Matthews is 5-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 21 career starts, including 4-4 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 starts this season alone.  Matthews allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the White Sox, which came just two weeks ago.

The White Sox are 3-1 in Yoendrys Gomez's four starts this season as he has posted a 3.86 ERA while allowing 8 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings with 22 K's.  One of those starts came against the Twins as he fired 4 2/3 shutout innings with 6 K's in a 8-0 victory on August 24th.  Bet the White Sox Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Twins OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the White Sox and Twins tonight.  There will be double-digit winds blowing out to right-center in Minnesota tonight.  These two gas can starting pitchers are in trouble.

Zebby Matthews is 5-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 21 career starts, including 4-4 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 starts this season alone.  Matthews allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the White Sox, which came just two weeks ago.

Yoendrys Gomez is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in four starts and 12 relief appearances for the White Sox this season.  While I expect Gomez to have more success than Matthews today, I do think he'll give up enough to the Twins to help us cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

The Twins are 8-0 OVER In their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all eight games, and 11 or more in seven of them.  The White Sox are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Reds OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Blue Jays and Reds with 9 or more combined runs in all six games.  Both bullpens were used heavily yesterday in a 12-9 win by the Blue Jays and 21 combined runs.  Both bullpens are now taxed.

The OVER is 9-1 in Blue Jays last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Reds last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in four of those five games.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Reds and Blue Jays tonight.

Shane Bieber will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Blue Jays and will remain on a pitch count, exposing their bullpen even more.  Zack Littell has allowed 11 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last four starts.  Littell allowed 3 homers to the Blue Jays in his last start against them earlier this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-135)

The San Francisco Giants are 8-1 in their last nine games overall with six of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  They have scored a total of 69 runs in those nine games for an average of 7.7 runs pre game.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 11 games overall and are playing their best baseball of the season.

The Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall with seven losses by 4 runs or more.  It won't get any easier for them tonight against San Francisco ace Logan Webb, who is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Webb is 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 16 career starts against the Rockies, and 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last six starts against them.

The Giants should stay hot at the plate against Kyle Freeland, who is 3-13 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Freeland is 1-5 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 11 home starts as well.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Giants for a 6.80 ERA.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -111

The New York Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight games overall while scoring 10 runs or more four times, and 5 runs or more in all five victories.  They are scoring 5.25 runs per game compared to 4.2 runs per game for the Astros as they have the much more potent lineup.

Ace Max Fried gets the ball for the Yankees tonight.  Fried is 14-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  He will shut down the light hitting Astros, who have scored 4 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall, and 2 runs or fewer five times.

The Astros are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last five starts as he has posted a 5.64 ERA during this stretch while allowing 19 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings.  Valdez has allowed 7 earned runs and 23 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees.  He is 1-1 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in six career starts against New York.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -124

The New York Mets have a lot to play for right now trying to nail down a playoff spot in the National League.  They are favored for good reason on the road against the Detroit Tigers, who already have the AL Central clinched and may struggle to find motivation the rest of the way.

Rookie Nolan McLean has been awesome for the Mets, going 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in three starts while allowing just 2 earned runs and 15 base runners in 20 1/3 innings with 21 K's.  He tossed 8 shutout innings in just 95 pitches in a 6-0 win over the Phillies in his last start.

Sawyer Gipson-Long has posted a 4.32 ERA allowing 12 earned runs in 25 innings this season for the Tigers.  The Tigers are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall and going through the motions right now.  Bet the Mets Tuesday.

15* TCU/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 56.5

The Bill Belichick era at North Carolina beings Monday.  He is doing everything he can to make the Tar Heels more like an NFL team.  Take care of the football with a ball control offense, and rely on defense to win games.  He has gone as far as to install real grass in their new Kenan Memorial Stadium, which will favor his style of play rather than speed which comes with artificial turf.

New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens comes over from the NFL.  The Tar Heels will certainly struggle offensively with all they lose.  RB Omarion Hampton (1,650 yards, 15 TD) is one as are each of their top three receivers.  Like in his time with the Patriots, Belichick will be working with a bunch of underwhelming skill players.  He will be looking to run the football more and rely on multiple TE sets.

But the Tar Heels look to be in pretty good hands defensively.  They bringing in defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, who was Washington's DC last year and spent 12 seasons on the defensive staff with the Patriots.  He brings a pair of Washington transfers with him in LB Khmori House and CB Thaddeus Dixon.  The secondary will be the strength, and they added some nice transfers up front, from Penn State, Florida and ECU.

Everyone thinks offense when they think of TCU head coach Sonny Dykes, but he had his best defense yet last season as the Horned Frogs allowed just 24.6 points per game and 346 yards per game.  Eight starters return on defense and they are in the 2nd year of coordinator Andy Avalos' system.  The defense looks to be the strength of the team this season.

The Horned Frogs lose five of their top six receivers and their top two running backs from last season.  They do get QB Josh Hoover back, but I don't love the replacements at the skill positions, so he could struggle to find chemistry with his plethora of new weapons in the early going.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Brewers OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight against two suspect starting pitchers.  The Brewers are scoring 5.09 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.74 runs per game.  Both offenses should have their way tonight, and this total of 8.5 is too low as a result.

Taijuan Walker is 22-20 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the the last three seasons.  Walker has allowed 7 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts.  He is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three career starts against the Brewers, allowing 12 earned runs in 16 innings.

Jacob Misiorowski gets too much respect for his K numbers.  But he has a 4.33 ERA in 10 starts this season in 43 2/3 innings, so he is only averaging 4.4 innings per start as the Brewers have been cautious with him.  Misiorowski is 0-1 with a 9.58 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -116

I like the value we are getting on the Chicago Cubs as a short home favorite over the Atlanta Braves tonight.  The Cubs are 41-25 at home this season while the Braves are 62-75 on the road.  And this is a brutal spot for the Braves having to travel after playing the ESPN Sunday Night game in Philadelphia last night.  Now they have a quick turnaround for this afternoon game at Wrigley Field.

Colin Rea is 10-6 with a 4.23 ERA this season including 5-3 with a 4.06 ERA at home.  Rea has held the Braves to just 2 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings with 15 K's in his last two starts against them.

Spencer Strider consistently gets too much respect from the books, and he is a shell of his former self after injury.  Strider is 5-12 with a 4.95 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 5.10 ERA in nine road starts.  Strider is 0-4 with a 10.13 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* Notre Dame/Miami ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish finished 14-2 last season.  They won three playoff games over Indiana, Georgia and Penn State before succumbing to Ohio State in the National Championship Game.  They are a legit national title contender again in 2025.

The Fighting Irish return 14 starters.  They have one of the nation's top offensive lines and RB rooms, which will ease the pressure on star freshman QB CJ Carr.  He has been getting rave reviews in fall came from teammates and coaches for his leadership and command of the offense.

Former LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, who was behind Jayden Daniels' Heisman Trophy winning season, made a huge difference for the Fighting Irish last year.  They scored 36.1 points per game and leaned on a rushing attack that produced 201 yards per game and 5.7 per carry.  Jeremiyah Love (1,125 yards, 17 TD) and Jadarian Price (746 yards, 7 TD) return as arguably the best two-headed monster in the country.  The Fighting Irish return seven starters and five of their top seven tacklers on defense from a unit that allowed just 15.5 points per game.

The Miami Hurricanes hit the portal as hard as anyone to try and replace all the talent they lost from a team that finished 10-3 last season.  I think there will be growing pains early, and they won't be ready for a team with the talent and experience of Notre Dame in the opener.

The Hurricanes lose Heisman Trophy winner Cam Ward, who is irreplaceable.  They lose a 1,000-yard rusher and each of their top 5 receivers on offense.  Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck will not be hitting on all cylinders with all of these new pieces on offense.  The Hurricanes have a lot of talent on defense, but they lose five of their top six tacklers and will be learning new schemes under first-year defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman from Minnesota.

While Notre Dame is 14-5 SU against ranked teams under Marcus Freeman, Miami is just 1-6 SU against ranked teams under Mario Cristobal.  The Fighting Irish are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 true road games.  Better yet, the Fighting Irish are 30-9 ATS in road/neutral games over the past six seasons.  They opened last season with an impressive 23-13 upset road win at Texas A&M, and they played their best away from home all season.

There is rain in the forecast and the potential for a downpour on the grass at Hard Rock Stadium.  That will favor the team with the better offensive line and running game, which is clearly the Fighting Irish.  We are getting them at a great value as only 2.5-point road favorites in the opener.  Bet Notre Dame Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New York Yankees -169

The New York Yankees are absolutely raking right now.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last six games and a total of 58 runs during their current 7-game winning streak with six of those seven wins coming by 4 runs or more.

Luis Gil looks to be rounding into form for the Yankees allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts, and one earned run in three of them.  He'll be opposed by journeyman Martin Perez, who is a soft tosser than cannot be expected to hold this potent Yankees lineup in check.  Bet the Yankees Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Guardians OVER 8

This total of 8 is too low for a game involving two absolute gas cans this afternoon.  Both offenses should have their way as this game sails OVER this 8-run total.

Bryce Miller is 3-5 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in six road starts.  Miller has posted a 9.00 ERA in his last five starts, allowing a whopping 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings.

Tanner Bibee is 9-10 with a 4.67 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Bibee has posted a 6.26 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 27 1/3 innings.  He has allowed at least 4 earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +111

The San Diego Padres sit just one game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.  They have a lot more to play for than the Minnesota Twins, who have been eliminated from playoff contention.  The value on the Padres is too good to pass up today.

I know the Padres will be making this a bullpen game, but they have the best bullpen in the majors right now.  They rank 1st in baseball with a 3.01 ERA and have been even better since the All-Star break with the arms they added.

Joe Ryan is getting way too much respect here.  Ryan has been rocked for 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts.  Ryan allowed a whopping 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against San Diego.  Bet the Padres Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-131)

The Chicago Cubs were swept by the San Francisco Giants last series.  They are taking out their frustration on the Colorado Rockies, winning 11-7 in Game 1 yesterday.  Now I expect them to win by multiple runs again today against the worst team in baseball in the Rockies, who are 1-7 in their last eight games overall to drop to 38-97 on the season.  They have been shut out three times in their last seven games.

Javier Assad has been solid since joining the rotation allowing just 2 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts.  He'll be opposed by rookie McCade Brown, who was rocked for 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 2/3 innings at Pittsburgh in his first career start.  The Pirates have the worst offense in baseball and a pitcher-friendly park, which makes this start at hitter-friendly Coors Field that much more daunting for the rookie tonight.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on USC -35.5

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season but their five losses came by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

Look for the Trojans to make easy work of Missouri State, which enters the FBS for its first season.  The Bears went 8-4 last season.  But their final two games of the season really show their talent level.  They lost 59-21 at North Dakota State and 45-9 to South Dakota State, two of the top teams in the FCS.  USC is on a whole different level, and this will likely be their toughest game in program history.

Missouri State returns just nine starters.  They lose their top two rushers and top two receivers from last season.  They lose each of their top five tacklers and 10 of their top 12 tacklers on defense.  What a mess it's going to be as the Bears will be one of the worst FBS teams in the country, starting with a 40-plus point blowout at USC on the road.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Michigan -34.5

First-year head coach Sherrone Moore was dealt a tough hand last season taking over for Jim Harbaugh coming off a National Championship.  The Wolverines only returned six starters from that team and opened 5-5.  But they blasted Northwestern 50-6, upset Ohio State as a 19-point road underdog, and upset Alabama as a 16-point dog in the bowl to finish 8-5.

Now the Wolverines have a ton of momentum heading into 2025.  They also have a much more experienced group with 14 returning starters.  Their defense only allowed 19.9 points per game last season, and that unit will be strong again.  But the biggest improvement will come on offense, where the Wolverines were pitiful managing just 22.0 points per game.  It was an amazing job by Moore to win 8 games with that offense.

The Wolverines signed the top QB prospect in the nation in freshman Bryce Underwood, and he will be ready to go from the jump.  The Wolverines will actually have a passing game this season, and they should still be as explosive as ever on the ground.  They will have an improved offensive line to pave the way.

But as much as I think Michigan will be improved this season, this is more of a play against New Mexico than anything.  Head coach Bronco Mendenhall left for Utah State, and a lot of players left with him.  The Lobos will be starting over with first-year head coach Jason Eck, who comes over from FCS Idaho and will be making his debut as a FBS head coach.  They obviously break in two new coordinators as well.

The cupboard is pretty bare for Eck in his first season as this is clearly a rebuilding year.  The Lobos only bring back four starters and lose QB Devon Dampier to Utah.  Hew meant everything to this team last year throwing for 2,768 yards and rushing for 1,166 more.  They also lose a 1,000-yard rusher and two 750-plus yard receivers.  They are literally starting over from scratch on offense, and I can't see them even scoring 7 points against this Michigan defense.

The Lobos allowed 38.0 points per game and 492 yards per game last season.  They can't possibly be any worse defensively, but they won't be that improved, either.  They lose 16 of their top 19 tacklers from last season.  I honestly think Michigan only needs 35 points to cover this spread, but they will likely get 42-plus to lock it up.  Bet Michigan Saturday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres -144

The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated for a win after dropping Game 1 of this series, their 4th loss in 5 games.  They are trying to chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.  They have a huge advantage on the mound tonight over the hapless Twins.

Nick Pivetta is 13-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Taj Bradley, who is 6-7 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 starts.  Bradley just returned from the minors and was blasted for 7 earned runs in 5 innings in a 8-0 loss to the lowly White Sox.  Bradley allowed 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in his last start against the Padres as well.  Bet the Padres Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-130)

The New York Yankees are absolutely raking right now.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last five games and a total of 53 runs during their current 6-game winning streak with all six wins coming by 4 runs or more.  You can chalk up another win by multiple runs for the Yankees today.

Cam Schlittler's talent has come out in a big way over his last five starts allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts with a 1.63 ERA during this stretch.  He has allowed just one earned run in 17 2/3 innings with 20 K's in his last three starts.

Shane Smith is 1-4 with a 6.11 ERA in his last 10 starts, allowing 31 earned runs and 9 homers in 45 2/3 innings.  This will be one of the toughest tests of the season for Smith, who has never faced the Yankees.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -23

Mike Elko enters Year 2 at Texas A&M with one of the most talented, experienced rosters in the country.  Elko returns 16 starters and the 6th-most experienced roster in the country.  No question the Aggies are going to be a legit national title contender this season.

The Aggies opened the season with poor QB play before turning to freshman Marcel Reed, who completed 61% of his passes for 1,864 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 543 yards and seven scores.  Now the sophomore should take a big leap forward, especially since he can rely on one of the nation's top offensive lines and one of the deepest backfields in the country.

Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Aggies have seven starters and each of their top six tacklers back from a defense that allowed just 22.2 points per game.  They will be even better this season, especially with all the talent they added.  Elko brought in a Top 10 recruiting class to go with all that experience.

No question UTSA has a solid offense with nine returning starters, but the problem is the defense.  The Roadrunners gave up 30.1 points per game last season.  They have just two starters back on defense and lose 12 of their top 14 tacklers.  Head coach Jeff Traylor did little to improve the talent on defense, so the Roadrunners will be giving up points in bunches again.

In their first two road games last season, UTSA was blasted 49-10 at Texas State and 56-7 at Texas.  I think the Roadrunners will receive a similar fate here against another team from the SEC in Texas A&M.  This 23-point spread is too short.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -137

The Philadelphia Phillies have a lot to play for the rest of the way trying to win the NL East and get home-field advantage in the National League.  The Atlanta Braves are just playing out the string.  I'm willing to lay the juice with the Phillies tonight due to their motivational advantage, but mostly due to their advantage on the mound.

Cristopher Sanchez is 11-5 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including a perfect 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Sanchez held the Braves to 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against them this season.

Chris Sale is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six career starts against the Phillies.  He has allowed 5 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them this season alone.  Sale will be making his first start since June 18th and will be on a pitch count.  It makes zero sense the Braves are even bringing him back, and their bullpen will be tested tonight.  Bet the Phillies Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +15.5

I won't have many plays on games involving FCS teams, but this is one I couldn't pass up.  I cashed in Tarleton State +14.5 in an outright win over Army last night.  And now I'm backing an even better FCS team in South Dakota here to give Iowa State a run for its money.

South Dakota went 11-3 last season and enters as the 4th-ranked FCS team in the country this season.  Only FCS powers North Dakota State, Montana State and South Dakota State are ranked ahead of them.  And South Dakota has the best FCS QB in the country in Aidan Bouman, an ex-Cyclone who transferred to South Dakota in 2022.

Bouman will have revenge on his mind here and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.  He threw for 2,958 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio last season.  The Coyotes bring back most of their best players at RB, WR and LB as well, and they hit the portal hard bringing in several Power 4 transfers to fill some voids.

But this is a terrible spot for Iowa State, which is the biggest reason I'm on South Dakota.  The Cyclones return from Dublin, Ireland after earning a huge 24-21 upset win over Kansas State in Big 12 play.  NFL teams usually have a bye week when they come back from overseas, but Iowa State won't have that luxury, and I doubt their body clocks have adjusted in time for this game.

I expect the Cyclones to be dragging ass a bit after the long flight back from Ireland and the big time zone change.  And look who they have on deck next week.  The Cy-Hawk rivalry against Iowa looms next week, and they could be caught looking ahead to that game.  At the very least, they don't want to open up the playbook too much to tip their hand.

Iowa State had a stronger team last year when they opened with a lackluster 21-3 win as 27-point favorites over FCS North Dakota.  They only outgained North Dakota by 58 yards in that game.  South Dakota is a better team, and I think the Cyclones will be in for more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend.  Bet South Dakota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Syracuse/Tennessee OVER 50.5

Syracuse was a dead nuts OVER team last season finishing with 50 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.  Their high-powered offense put up 34.1 points and 468 yards per game.  No question they won't be as potent as last year, but they are still an offensive-minded team.

Everyone left Kyle McCord for dead after a poor 2023 as Ohio State's starting QB.  Turns out he lived up to the hype that made him one of the top QB recruits in the country when he went to the right place in Syracuse.  McCord broke the ACC record with 4,779 passing yards for the Orange last season.

Now head coach Fran Brown is going a similar path here with Notre Dame backup QB Steve Angeli.  He completed 75% of his passes with a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his time as a backup QB at Notre Dame.  I think Brown will get the most out of him, and this offense will still be pretty good again.  The defense figures to be pretty poor losing seven of their top 10 tacklers.

Josh Heupel is one of the best offensive minds in the game.  The Vols have averaged at least 32 points per game in each of his first four seasons in Knoxville.  I actually think they upgrade at QB here with Nico Iamaleava being one of the most overrated QB's in the country last season.  There's a reason the Vols wouldn't pay him.  Instead, they get Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar, who threw for 6,760 yards and 56 touchdowns over the last two seasons.  He will be able to stretch the field unilke Iamaleava.  He has loads of talent surrounding him, and the Vols should name their number against this Syracuse defense.

No question Tennessee hung its hat on defense last season with the best stop unit of the Huepel era by far.  They can only take a step back, especially considering they played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They did give up 42 to Ohio State and 31 to Georgia, however.  And I think Syracuse can do enough against them to contribute to us cashing this OVER 50.5 ticket, which is just below the key number of 51 and a good value.  Especially since it has dropped from an opener of 55.5.  And it will be played in perfect scoring conditions inside the dome at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Texas/Ohio State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +1.5

Revenge is sometimes overused in sports.  But it certainly applies here.  There's no bigger revenge than getting to play a team that ended your season the year prior.  That is the case with Texas, which lost 28-14 in the semifinals to eventual national champion Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.

Texas wastes no time getting a shot at revenge taking on Ohio State in the season opener.  The Longhorns are loaded again this season with 11 returning starters and the best recruiting class in the country.  QB Arch Manning will likely be an upgrade over Quinn Ewers, and Steve Sarkisian has groomed him the right way.  He picked up valuable playing time last year due to an injury to Ewers, completing 68% of his passes with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 108 yards and 4 scores.  He has an embarrassment of riches surrounding him offensively.

The Longhorns likely have the best defense in the country returning 7 starters from a unit that allowed just 15.3 points per game last season.  They held up well in the rugged SEC, and they look just as good this season.  Sarkisian now has all the pieces in place in his 5th season that warrants Texas coming into the season as the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

Many felt Ohio State was fortunate to get into the playoffs with two regular season losses, including a 13-10 home loss to Michigan as a 19-point favorite that kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game.  They took advantage of their good fortune and a veteran, loaded roster that had 16 starters back and ran the table in the 12-team playoff.

Now the Buckeyes are fat and happy heading into the 2025 season as defending champs, and I like fading teams that I know won't be playing with an edge.  Only nine starters return, and they lose 15 players to the NFL Draft.  They have a freshman QB in Julian Sayin, and while he has ample weapons, he won't be nearly as effective as Will Howard was last season.

I'm most concerned about the fact that Ohio State is breaking in two new coordinators, and they have to be some of the biggest downgrades at coordinator I've ever seen.  The offense loses Chip Kelly to the NFL, while the defense loses Jim Knowles, who many believe is the best D-coordinator in college football.  Replacing him is Matt Patricia, who has been a disaster as a defensive coordinator in the NFL with the Patriots and Eagles prior.  I really think this could be a disastrous year for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes, starting with an 'upset' loss to the Longhorns at home in the opener.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State -13

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Southern Miss was legitimately one of the worst teams in the country last year.  The Eagles went 1-11 scoring 15.3 pints per game and allowing 37.8 points per game.  That led to the hiring of Marshall head coach Charlie Huff, who I think is one of the more overrated head coaches in the country.

Marshall got every break to win the Sun Belt title last year.  They will be breaking in new schemes under OC Blake Anderson and DC Jason Semore.  Huff brought many of his Marshall players with him to Southern Miss, but I don't think they are all that talented.  There are going to be a lot of groin pains early and often, starting with a blowout loss in Week 1 to a much more talented team from the SEC.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNLV/Sam Houston State OVER 61

What made UNLV an actual playoff contender last year was a great defense led by head coach Barry Odom, who has always been a defensive-minded guy.  The Rebels allowed just 21.3 points per game last season.

Enter Dan Mullen, who has always been an offensive guy with defense optional.  Nine starters are gone on defense and they lose 18 of their top 19 tacklers!  Many followed Odom to Purdue.  And it's clear already that this could be one of the worst defenses in the country.

UNLV needed two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to put away lowly FCS Idaho State as a 30.5-point favorite in a 38-31 win in Week 0.  They allowed a whopping 555 total yards to one of the worst teams in the FCS.  But the offense did its part with 532 total yards and there is a ton of talent on this side of the ball.  QBAnthony Colandrea is a transfer from Virgnia, and leading rusher Jai'Den Thomas who had 918 yards and 7 TD last year had 147 yards and 3 TD on just 10 carries in the opener.

Sam Houston also hired an offensive-minded coach in Phil Longo where defense is optional.  That was the case in their opener in Week 0 as the Bearkats lost 41-24 to Western Kentucky.  They allowed 505 total yards including 401 passing to the Hilltoppers.

Amazingly, the Bearkats lost each of their top 16 tacklers from last year as many followed head coach Keeler to Temple.  Like UNLV, they are going to have one of the worst defenses in the country and have to rely on shootouts to win games.

Longo does have some talent to work with on offense with QB Hunter Watson back.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 1,811 yards and 12 TD while also rushing for 647 yards and 9 TD last year.  Watson threw for 209 yards and rushed for 91 more in the opener against Western Kentucky.  Arizona State transfer Alton McCaskill rushed for 72 yards and a score on 11 carries.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and less than a 20% chance of rain.  I think both offenses have their way with these two suspect defenses, especially after having a game under their belts after playing in Week 0.  They should be even sharper offensively a week later.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -126

The San Diego Padres have a lot to play for trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 games in the NL West.  They have a great chance to make up some ground starting with Game 1 of this series with the lowly Minnesota Twins, who are 11.5 games out of the wild card and basically playing out the string at this point.

The Padres should be bigger favorites tonight over the Twins, who have gone 2-7 in their last nine games overall while allowing 4 runs or more in all nine games and 7 runs or more in six of them.  They are sure to give up a big number to the Padres again tonight.

Zebby Matthews is 4-8 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 20 starts over the last two seasons.  Matthews is 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He has allowed 5 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Nestor Cortes is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing just 7 earned runs in 27 innings.  He went 6 shutout innings against the potent Dodgers in his last start and really looks to be rounding into form her down the stretch.  Bet the Padres Friday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -168

The Philadelphia Phillies have a lot to play for the rest of the way trying to win the NL East and get home-field advantage in the National League.  The Atlanta Braves are just playing out the string.  I'm willing to lay the juice with the Phillies tonight due to their motivational advantage, but mostly due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Ranger Suarez is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Suarez has been dominant in his last two starts allowing 2 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings with a whopping 21 K's.  He has been dominant in his last two starts against the Braves this season, allowing one earned run in 13 innings with 16 K's.

Bryce Elder has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 5-9 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 22 starts.  Elder has allowed a whopping 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.  Bet the Phillies Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Braves OVER 9

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Braves are 28-13-3 OVER in their last 44 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 31 of those 44 games.  This total of 9 is too short for a game involving the Braves right now.

The Phillies beat the Braves 19-4 yesterday for 23 combined runs.  I'm fully expecting the Phillies to cover this total on their own again tonight.  But the Braves will do enough against Ranger Suarez to contribute to the total as well.

Bryce Elder has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 5-9 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 22 starts.  Elder has allowed a whopping 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Tarleton State +14.5

I won't be releasing many games involving FCS teams all season.  This may be the only one.  I would play Tarleton State down to +10.  But I am looking for ways to fade Army this season as it's time to 'sell high' on the Black Knights after a school-record 12-2 season last year.

I backed Army hand over fist last season due to having a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback in Bryson Daily.  He rushed for 1,659 yards and 32 TD, while also throwing for 1,007 yards and 9 TD.  He was the heart and soul of this team, and there isn't a bigger drop off in the entire country at QB this season than what Army is facing with Dewayne Coleman trying to replace him.

The Black Knights have just nine starters back overall and four on offense.  Their offense will struggle to come close to matching last year's numbers as they average 31.1 points per game.  They will be closer to 20 PPG this season.  Their defensive numbers are also unsustainable after holding opponents to 15.5 points per game last season against a very weak schedule.

Tarleton State is ranked in the Top 10 in the FCS Poll coming into the season after a 10-4 season last year that resulted in a playoff appearance.  They delivered a 42-0 road victory against Portland State in Week 0 while rushing for 301 yards and throwing for 152 more.  They handed the Vikings their first shutout home loss in 22 years.

RB Tre Page ran for 160 of his 170 yards in the first half, and QB Victor Gabalis threw a pair of touchdowns in only three quarters of play.  They called off the dogs in the 4th quarter or it could have been worse.  I have to think the Texans prepared for the triple-option in the offseason with one eye on their opener against Portland State and the other eye on their 2nd game of the season here against Army.  This will be more of a dog fight than the Black Knights are prepared for.  Bet Tarleton State Friday.

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska -6

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of my favorite teams entering the 2025 season.  In Matt Rhule I trust, and he has worked wonders are previous programs specifically in Year 3, which he is in at Nebraska this season.

Rhule took over Temple in 2023 and went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and 10-3 in his four seasons.  He took over Baylor and went 1-11, 7-6 and then 11-3 in his 3rd season.  Rhule has 15 returning starters to work with in Year 3 at Nebraska, and I believe the Cornhuskers are a sleeper to compete for the Big Ten title.

Rhule finally got some bowl practices and beat Boston College in the bowl.  That extra practice time will have worked wonders for this team, especially since they hired a new offensive coordinator down the stretch in Dana Holgorsen.

Holgorsen coached the final four games for the Huskers and you could see a dramatic improvement in freshman QB Dylan Raiola.  He was the 2nd-rated QB in all of college football coming out of high school, and he will take a big leap in Year 3.  The Huskers have 10 starters back on offense and this should be their best offense in a very long time.

Nebraska is always reliable defensively under Rhule.  The Huskers allowed just 18.3 points per game in 2023 and 19.5 points per game in 2024.  That's why I'm not concerned that they have just five returning starters on defense, especially since they do return five of their top nine tacklers.  They bring in Oklahoma transfer Dasan McCullough to take over as their JACK LB.

Cincinnati did not get the benefit of bowl practices last year losing its final five games to finish 5-7.  Scott Satterfield is also in Year 3 after going 3-9 in his first season, and I just don't have nearly as much faith in him despite this potentially being his best team yet.  Like Nebraska, the Bearcats return 15 starters.

The problem is eight starters are back on defense from a unit that allowed 385 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play last season.  I'm not a big fan of QB Brendan Sorsby, and the offense loses leading rusher Corey Kiner (1,153 yards, 5.7/carry) and leading receiver Xzavier Henderson (59 receptions, 738 yards, 4 TD).  Satterfield is doing a terrible job in recruiting as well with the 65th-ranked class of freshmen and JUCO's in the country.

Cincinnati is the bottom team in the betting rotation, and a lot of bettors will assume they are the home team.  However, this game is being played on a neutral, and it is a neutral that will favor Nebraska.  It is being played at Arrowhead Stadium, which is a short drive from Lincoln, and I'm expecting 70-80% of the fans to be Huskers supporters.  Bet Nebraska Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Phillies OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Braves and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center.  These two gas can starting pitchers are in trouble tonight.

The injured Aaron Nola is a shell of his former self.  Nola is 2-7 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 42 earned runs and 13 homers in 58 innings.  Nola has allowed 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 17 innings in his last four starts.

Cal Quantrill is 4-11 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Quantrill has allowed a whopping 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 2/3 innings in his last four starts.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in two starts against the Phillies this season.

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Braves are 27-13-3 OVER in their last 43 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 30 of those 43 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Boise State/USF ESPN ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +6.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starters, and while the offense was still in good handes with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos.  They made the 12-team playoff last year and actually were ranked in the Top 4 to get a bye.  They proceeded to lose 31-14 to Penn State.  They were overvalued all season and had a lot of close wins against bad teams down the stretch.

Now they lose their star RB Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 TD last season.  He is irreplaceable for this team, and now the Broncos are going to have to rely a lot more on the right arm of Maddux Madsen.  I don't think he's a very good QB and he benefited from teams being forced to stack the box to try and stop Jeanty.  He won't have that luxury this season.

Boise State led the nation with 55 sacks last year.  They lose a lot of production along the front 7 as 29 sacks are gone.  Five of the top nine tacklers depart as well.  They had all 11 starters back on defense last season which was a big reason for their success.  They will now have four new starters along the front 7.

We saw Boise State struggle to put away Georgia Southern in their opener last season allowing 45 points.  The Broncos are now 0-4 ATS in their last four season openers.  I think this is a very tough spot for the Broncos, who aren't as motivated coming into the season after making the 12-team playoff.  They will be breaking in their 7th different offensive coordinator since 2019.

Finally, it will be hot and humid at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay with temps approaching 90 degrees.  While the Bulls are used to playing in the heat and run an up-tempo offense to wear down opposing defenses, the Broncos aren't used to it at all.  I could see them running out of gas in the 2H while the Bulls continue pouring it on.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Cubs -122

The Chicago Cubs have a lot more to play for down the stretch than the San Francisco Giants.  With their motivational edge plus their advantage on the mound tonight, the Cubs should be bigger favorites over the Giants.

Colin Rea is 10-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 22 starts and four relief appearances for the Cubs this season.  Rea has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts and a total of 6 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings for a 2.53 ERA during this stretch.

Carson Whisenhunt is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in four starts this season.  Whisenhunt has a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Dodgers OVER 8

Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at game time tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket.  The Dodgers rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.18 runs per game, so this total of 8 is pretty short for a game involving the Dodgers tonight.

Shohei Ohtani hasn't been going more than 4 innings for the Dodgers this season, and he has really struggled of late with a 6.38 ERA in his last five starts.  The Reds should get into this suspect Dodgers bullpen early in this one.

Nick Lodolo is getting too much respect for the Reds.  He will be making his first start since August 4th due to injury and will be on a pitch count.  Both bullpens will get a lot of use tonight, and this game should sail OVER 8 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -124

The Kansas City Royals are just 3 games out of the wild card in the American League.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way, and I expect them to handle their business tonight against the lowly Chicago White Sox due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Ryan Bergert is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 11 starts and four relief appearances this season.  He has allowed just 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 58 innings.  Bergert has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts.

Aaron Civale is 3-8 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-3 witha 6.38 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight home starts.  Civale has allowed 16 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* Phillies/Mets NL East No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-1-2 in Phillies last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 6-1-2 in Mets last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Phillies and Mets right now.

The Phillies are scoring 6.8 runs per game in their last nine games while the Mets are scoring 7.0 runs in their last 15 games as these are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  They get to face two suspect starting pitchers tonight to boot.

Taijuan Walker is 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his last three road starts against the Mets, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 14 1/3 innings.  Nolan McClean will be making just his 3rd start of the season and is getting too much respect for what he has done in such a small sample size.

The Phillies and Mets have combined for at least 8 runs in nine of their last 12 meetings, including 11 runs or more in four of their last five.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -132

The Boston Red Sox (73-60) are battling for a wild card spot and still have an outside chance to catch the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East at 4 games back.  The Baltimore Orioles (60-72) are 10.5 games out of the wild card and simply playing out the string at this point.

The Red Sox should crush Dietrich Enns and this awful Baltimore bullpen tonight.  Enns is 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, allowing 16 earned runs in 29 innings this season.  The Orioles have the 6th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.69 ERA on the season.

Bryan Bello has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  Bello is 10-6 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 22 starts for the Red Sox.  He is 4-2 with a 3.75 ERA in seven career starts against the Orioles.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -132

The Chicago Cubs are the more motivated team in this series with the San Francisco Giants.  They have a lot to play for in terms of the playoffs while the Giants are just playing out the string.  They also have a big advantage on the mound tonight.

Matthew Boyd is 12-6 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts for the Cubs this season.  Boyd allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings with 7 K's in a 9-2 win over the Giants in his lone career start against them earlier this season.

Justin Verlander is 1-10 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 22 starts for the Giants this season.  He was just rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings by the Padres in his last start.  Verlander allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings to the Cubs in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Padres/Mariners Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Padres have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games overall.  The Mariners have scored a total of 20 runs in their last two games.  These two hot lineups should stay hot tonight against these two struggling starting pitchers.

Dylan Cease is 6-11 with a 4.71 ERA in 26 starts this season, including 0-8 with a 5.65 ERA in 13 road starts.  Luis Castillo has allowed 9 earned runs, 4 homers and 22 base runners in 8 innings in his last two starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 8

The Brewers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Diamondbacks rank 6th scoring 4.92 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving two Top 6 offenses up against two suspect starting pitchers tonight.

Brandon Pfaadt is 12-8 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Pfaadt is 1-1 with a 9.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in three career starts against the Brewers, allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings.  The Diamondbacks have the 4th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.77 ERA on the season.

Jacob Misiorowski is 4-2 with a 4.19 ERA in nine starts this season.  He is way overhyped due to his K numbers, but he has really struggled of late allowing 10 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last three starts for a 9.65 ERA.  The Brewers are limiting him to about 4 innings per start, so their bullpen will get a lot of use again tonight.  It's a taxed unit with seven of their last eight games with save opportunities.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Phillies/Mets NL East No-Brainer on OVER 8

The OVER is 5-1-2 in Phillies last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  The OVER is 5-1-2 in Mets last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Phillies and Mets right now.

The Phillies are scoring 7.0 runs per game in their last eight games while the Mets are scoring 7.07 runs in their last 14 games as these are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  They get to face two suspect starting pitchers tonight to boot.

Jesus Luzardo is 12-6 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 26 starts for the Phillies this season.  Sean Manaea is 1-2 with a 5.15 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-1 with a 6.66 ERA in his last five starts.

The Phillies and Mets have combined for at least 8 runs in eight of their last 11 meetings, including 12 runs or more in three of their last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Yankees OVER 9

The Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.16 runs per game.  The Nationals rank 29th allowing 5.5 runs per game while sporting the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.60 ERA.  The Yankees have the 8th-worst bullpen with a 4.36 ERA.

The Nationals and their opponents have combined for at least 9 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Yankees are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.

MacKenzie Gore has really fallen off here down the stretch going 1-4 with a 7.88 ERA in his last seven starts while allowing 28 earned runs and 8 homers in 32 innings.  This will be one of his toughest tests of the season against this red hot, potent Yankees lineup.

Luis Gil is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four starts this season and remains on a pitch count while trying to work his way back from injury.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Padres/Mariners OVER 8

Two gas can starting pitchers go tonight and this total of 8 is too low for Game 1 of this series between the Padres and Mariners.  The Padres have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last six games overall.  The Mariners just hung 11 runs on the A's at home yesterday and are scoring 4.56 runs per game on the season.

JP Sears is 8-10 with a 4.94 ERA in 24 starts this season between the A's and Padres.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings to the Diamondbacks in his first start with his new team in the Padres on August 4th.  Sears is 6-8 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 16 starts at night this season.

Bryce Miller has been even worse, going 2-5 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts for the Mariners this season.  Miller allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings to the Phillies in his first start back in over 2 months on August 19th in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Nationals/Yankees OVER 9

The Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.12 runs per game.  The Nationals rank 29th allowing 5.46 runs per game while sporting the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.59 ERA.  The Yankees have the 8th-worst bullpen with a 4.29 ERA.

The Nationals and their opponents have combined for at least 9 runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Yankees are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.

Brad Lord is 4-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 12 starts and 29 relief appearances this season and cannot be trusted to go deep into games.  Cameron Schlittler is 1-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in seven starts for the Yankees this season and also won't go deep into this game, meaning both bullpens will get a lot of use tonight.  

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket with temps in the 80's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at game time at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Braves/Marlins OVER 7.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Braves are 25-12-3 OVER in their last 40 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of those 40 games.  This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving the Braves right now.

The Miami Marlins are 85-55 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The Marlins and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.

Spencer Strider is 5-11 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 17 starts for the Braves this season.  Strider has been rocked for 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a monstrous 15.42 ERA during this stretch.

Edward Cabrera has been rocked for 9 earned runs and 22 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts for the Marlins.  The Marlins and Braves have combined for at least 8 runs in five of their last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

This total of 8.5 is too short tonight in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.11 runs per game while the Red Sox rank 4th at 5.01 runs per game.

Dustin May has been a disaster between the Dodgers and Red Sox this season.  May is 7-9 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 10 road starts.

While Carlos Rodon is having a solid season overall for the Yankees, he certainly does not enjoy facing the Red Sox.  He is 3-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in his last six starts against them, including 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in two starts against them in 2025 while allowing 8 earned runs in 10 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Braves OVER 9

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Braves are 25-11-3 OVER in their last 39 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of those 39 games.  This total of 9 is too low for a game involving the Braves right now.

These teams combined for 19 runs in Game 1 and 11 runs in Game 2, and it should be more of the same today.  They have now combined for at least 17 runs in three of their last five meetings, and 10 runs or more in six of their last eight meetings.

Bryce Elder has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 5-9 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 starts, including 2-4 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Elder allowed 8 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the lowly White Sox.

David Peterson is 3-5 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Braves as he clearly does not enjoy facing them.  He is 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his last five starts against them, allowing 21 earned runs in 25 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New York Mets -121

The New York Mets are fighting for a playoff spot while the Atlanta Braves are eliminated already.  The Mets are playing like it in this series winning 12-7 in Game 1 and 9-2 in Game 2, and I expect them to pull off the sweep today due to their big advantage on the mound.

David Peterson is 8-5 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 24 starts for the Mets this season.  He has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven day game starts as well.

Bryce Elder has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 5-9 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 starts, including 2-4 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Elder allowed 8 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the lowly White Sox.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* Raiders/Cardinals NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Las Vegas ML -133

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati Reds -114

The Reds have a lot more to play for than the Diamondbacks today.  They also have a big advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Andrew Abbott is 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Abbott allowed just one earned run in 7 innings in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks.

Nabil Crismatt will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Diamondbacks and cannot be counted on to go deep in this game, which is big considering the Arizona bullpen is taxed after going to extra innings yesterday.  The Diamondbacks have the 4th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.79 ERA this season.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mets/Braves OVER 9

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Braves are 24-11-3 OVER in their last 38 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 27 of those 38 games.  This total of 9 is too low for a game involving the Braves right now.

These teams combined for 19 runs yesterday and it should be more of the same today.  They have now combined for at least 17 runs in three of their last four meetings, and 10 runs or more in five of their last seven meetings.

Clay Holmes has a 4.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his last 10 starts for the Mets.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 13-5 win over the Braves in his last start against them on August 12th.

Cal Quantrill is 4-10 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Quantrill has allowed a whopping 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings in his last three starts.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Mets in his last start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/White Sox OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Twins and White Sox today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center.  These teams combined for 16 runs yesterday, and it should be another slug fest today.

Mick Abel is 2-2 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six starts for the Twins this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 7 homers in 25 innings.  Davis Martin is 4-9 with a 3.94 ERA in 18 starts for the White Sox this season.  Martin is 0-3 with a 11.32 ERA in three career starts against the Twins, allowing 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/Orioles OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Astros and Orioles today.  Temps will be in the 70's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center.  These teams combined for 9 runs in Game 1 and 17 runs in Game 2, and it should be another slug fest today.

Christian Javier will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Astros as he tries and work his way back from injury.  There's not a lot to like about Dean Kremer, who is 9-9 with a 3.97 ERA in 24 starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Red Sox/Yankees AL East Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Red Sox and Yankees today.  Temps will be in the 80's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving two of the best offenses in baseball with the Yankees scoring 5.14 runs per game and the Red Sox 4.92 runs per game.

Garrett Crochet has allowed 6 earned runs in 11 innings in his last two starts.  Crochet has allowed 6 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees this season.

Will Warren allowed 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 9-6 home win over the Red Sox in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas State 2025 CFB Season Opener on Iowa State +3.5

Wrong team favored here.  The Iowa State Cyclones are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Kansas State Wildcats to complete own them under Matt Campbell after years of frustration in this rivalry prior to him.

In Campbell, the Cyclones have one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led the Cyclones to a school-record 11 wins last season.  They have 13 starters back from that team including QB Rocco Becht, who is quickly going down as one of the best quarterbacks in program history.  Becht threw for 3,505 yards and a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 8 scores.

Kansas State returns only nine starts this season.  The Wildcats had a disjointed spring with just 8 practices due to injuries instead of the normal 15.  They are behind the eight ball with so many new faces and so little practice, making this Week 0 game in Ireland all the more difficult.

Avery Johnson is one of the more overrated quarterbacks in the country with a lack of accuracy as a passer.  They lose RB DJ Giddens, who had 3,087 rushing yards over the past couple seasons and was their work horse.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +123

The Cincinnati Reds are only 0.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the National League with a lot to play for.  The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5.5 games back with little to play for at this point, especially after their were sellers at the trade deadline.  Wrong team favored here.

Zack Littell is 9-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 25 starts between the Reds and Rays this season.  He is more motivated now that he is on a contender, and it has shown in his performance with Littell allowing just 6 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts.

Regression has hit Ryne Nelson hard in his last two starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.  Nelson had one of his worst starts of the season on June 7th against the Reds, allowing 7 earned runs in 3 innings of a 13-1 defeat.  Bet the Reds Friday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

Shohei Ohtani should be back in the lineup for the top offense in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  The San Diego Padres have scored 5, 8 and 8 runs in their last three games and are heating up at the plate.  Both offenses should have their way with these two starting pitchers that are both working their way back from injury.

Blake Snell is making his 4th start back from injury for the Dodgers tonight.  He allowed 7 base runners but zero earned runs in his last start against the Padres with only 3 K's.  Getting to see Snell for the 2nd time in a week is a big advantage to San Diego's hitters, and they will punish him tonight.

Yu Darvish has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings in his last three starts for the Padres.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Dodgers in his last start, and getting to see Darvish for the 2nd time in a week is also an advantages to Los Angeles hitters.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Rays OVER 9

Two struggling starting pitchers square off a hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay tonight with a favorable forecast for hitters.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center.

The OVER is 9-2 in Rays last 11 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 games.  They went for 16 and 10 combined runs with the Yankees in their two games prior to this series, and 11 combined runs with the Cardinals in Game 1.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last six games overall with 11 or more combined runs in five of them.

Miles Mikolas is 6-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Mikolas is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in three career starts against the Rays.

Adrian Houser is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball late in the season.  He does not enjoy facing the Cardinals, going 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his last three starts against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets ML -125

No analysis for preseason.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Red Sox/Yankees OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now scoring a total of 42 runs in their last five games.  This total of 8.5 is very low for a game involving the Yankees right now at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  Boston and its opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 12 of his last 15 games overall.

Max Fried has allowed at least 3 earned runs in seven of his last eight starts.  He has allowed a total of 31 earned runs in 41 innings in those eight starts for a 6.80 ERA during this stretch.  He was just rocked for 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings by the Cardinals in his last start.

Brayan Bello has been solid at home this season, but worse on the road, and I don't think he'll be able to shut down this hot Yankees lineup.  He is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in seven road starts this season.

The Yankees and Red Sox have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last seven meetings in New York, including 18, 17, 15 and 9 combined runs in their four meetings at Yankee Stadium this season alone.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Patriots/Giants NFLX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 37

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Rays OVER 8.5

Two struggling starting pitchers square off a hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay tonight with a favorable forecast for hitters.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center.

The OVER is 8-2 in Rays last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 games.  They went for 16 and 10 combined runs with the Yankees in their last two games and their bullpen is taxed after going to extra innings yesterday.

The Cardinals should hang a big number on Joe Boyle and this tired Rays bullpen.  Boyle has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last five games overall with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.

The Rays should do their part against Sonny Gray, who has posted a 5.28 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 17 earned runs and 7 homers in 29 innings.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings to the Yankees in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on OVER 8

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now scoring a total of 39 runs in their last four games.  This total of 8 is very low for a game involving the Yankees right now at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  Boston and its opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 11 of his last 14 games overall.

Lucas Giolito is having a solid season but the Yankees will get to him tonight and stay hot at the plate.  Luis Gil is making just his 4th start of the season for the Yankees and will be on a pitch count again.  He is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in three starts allowing 8 earned runs and 23 base runners in 14 innings.  

The Yankees and Red Sox have combined for at least 8 runs in five of their last six meetings in New York, including 18, 17 and 15 combined runs in their three meetings at Yankee Stadium this season alone.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +121

The Cincinnati Reds are just one game out of the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are really the only challengers to the Mets for that last spot.  Look for them to take care of business against the lowly Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of this series tonight.

The Angels are 60-66 on the season and 7.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League with five teams ahead of them.  They are essentially eliminated already and they know it.  They should not be favored over the Reds tonight.

The Reds are 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last seven starts and he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six of those seven starts in the process.  Yusei Kikuchi is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing 15 earned runs, 5 homers and 43 base runners in 25 innings.

The Reds are 10-0 in their last 10 meetings with the Angels.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Rockies OVER 11.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11.5 ticket between the Dodgers and Rockies tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's at game time with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.  The Dodgers won 11-4 yesterday and it should be a similar result today with the Dodgers doing the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER 11.5 ticket.

Tanner Gordon is 3-5 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in eight starts for the Rockies this season, allowing 34 earned runs in 38 1/3 innings.  The Dodgers will crush him and this Colorado bullpen.

But I expect the Rockies to have some success at the plate as well.  Shohei Ohtani hasn't gone more than 4 1/3 innings in any start this season.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Angels in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now scoring a total of 33 runs in their last three games.  They just scored 13 runs yesterday with 9 homers at hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket again today with temps in the 80's so the ball should be flying out.

Cameron Schlittler has been wild for the Yankees this season going 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in six starts.  He has allowed 45 base runners and 6 homers in 29 2/3 innings.  The Rays are the offense that will do the heavy lifting tonight against Schlittler as they feast on right-handed pitching.

No question Drew Rasmussen is having a solid season for the Rays, but I don't expect him to be as effective against the potent Yankees in this one.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 9 or more combined runs in all four.  Bet the oVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (+100)

The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end their 4-game losing streak.  I like their chances of winning this game by multiple runs over the San Francisco Giants due to their big advantage on the mound.

Nick Pivetta has been one of the best starters in baseball this season going 12-4 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 24 starts.  Pivetta just faced the Giants in his last start and held them to one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of an 11-1 victory on August 13th.

Opposite Pivetta in that start was tonight's starter in Kai-Wei Teng, who allowed 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in that 11-1 defeat.  Teng has now allowed 11 earned runs in 5 innings in his two starts this season for a 19.80 ERA.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Tuesday.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Reds -126

The Cincinnati Reds are just one game out of the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are really the only challengers to the Mets for that last spot.  Look for them to take care of business against the lowly Los Angeles Angels in Game 2 of this series tonight.

The Angels are 60-65 on the season and 7.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League with five teams ahead of them.  They are essentially eliminated already and they know it.

The Reds should crush Kyle Hendricks, who went 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA for the Cubs last season, and hasn't been much better for the Angels.  Hendricks is 6-8 with a 4.88 ERA in 23 starts for the Angels this season.

Hunter Greene is one of the best starters in baseball when healthy, and he is healthy now.  Greene is 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He returned from the IL in his last start and fired 6 shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Phillies.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -120

The New York Yankees have come up clutch here down the stretch as they try and hold on to a wild card spot in the American League.  They have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall while scoring at least 6 runs in four of those five wins.  They have scored 20 runs in their last two games and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.

They should stay hot at the plate against Shane Baz, who is 8-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 5-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Baz is 0-4 with an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 23 earned runs in 25 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees this season.

Left-hander Carlos Rodon is 12-7 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Rodon has owned the Rays, allowing just one earned run and 10 base runners in 13 innings with 19 K's in his last two starts against them.  The Rays have notoriously struggled against left-handed starters, hitting .223 in 35 games against them this season.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Braves OVER 8.5

The White Sox beat the Braves 13-9 in Game 1 yesterday for 22 combined runs.  It should be another slug fest today with these two poor starting pitchers getting rocked.  The Braves are 22-10-3 OVER in their last 35 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 25 of those 35 games.  This total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving the Braves right now.

Bryce Elder is one of the worst starters in baseball going 5-9 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 20 starts for the Braves this season.  Elder has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 10 starts in Atlanta.

Shane Smith is 0-3 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his last seven starts for the White Sox.  He has only pitched 28 1/3 innings allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in those seven starts, so the White Sox are being very cautious with him and turning to their bullpen earlier and earlier.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +105

The Cleveland Guardians are playing with a sense of urgency right now sitting 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League, and only 4 games back of the 1st wild card spot.  They have a legit chance to chase down either the Yankees, Mariners or Red Sox for a spot in the postseason.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 6.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the National League with four teams in front of them, so they know their fate has already been sealed.  If it wasn't before it is now after losing their last three games to the lowly Rockies coming into this series.

Given their motivation and starting pitching advantages, the Guardians should not be underdogs to the Diamondbacks tonight.  Gavin Williams is 7-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 24 starts for the Guardians this season.

Zac Gallen has been a major disappointment for the Diamondbacks, going 9-12 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Gallen allowed 5 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against Cleveland.  Bet the Guardians Monday.