20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State +6.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Suns/Blazers UNDER 218

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State ML -120

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/SMU OVER 159.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State/Evansville UNDER 146.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier +17.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +26.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Buffalo OVER 163

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

15* Kansas/Texas Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 154.5

Kansas has been a potent offensive team since the healthy return of Darryn Peterson (21.3 PPG), who may be the best player in the country.  He is healthy and ready to go tonight against Texas Tech.  Kansas has scored at least 74 points in every game Peterson has played this season.

Texas Tech is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall with 155 or more combined points in all five games.  That includes 166 with UCF, 176 with Houston, 165 with Baylor and 162 with Utah.  This total of 154.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Red Raiders right now, especially with Peterson probable for Kansas.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +6.5

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Thunder outright as 15.5-point road dogs, and upset both the Bulls and Hawks at home.  This resurgence has to do with the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all season right now.

The same cannot be said for the Rockets, who have battled injuries for a while now and will be without both Kevin Durant and Steven Adams tonight.  The Rockets are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They aren't blowing anyone out with just one win by double-digits in their last 16 games.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Syracuse/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 158

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team right now.  The Orange are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 150 or more combined points in all eight games.  This run has coincided with the Orange getting leading scorer Donnie Freeman (18.2 PPG) back healthy.  He has been back healthy for their past nine games.

North Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team since getting G Seth Trimble (14.5 PPG).  He has been back for their past 11 games, and they play much faster with him in the lineup.  The Tar Heels are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 160 or more combined points in all seven games.  This total of 158 is short for a game involving Syracuse and UNC right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Thunder/Nuggets NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +8.5

The Denver Nuggets just got Nikola Jokic back healthy.  The MVP returned last game to lead the Nuggets to a 122-109 home win over the Clippers as 2.5-point dogs.  Jokic looked like his MVP self, posting a double-double with 31 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going through their worst stretch of the season largely due to injuries.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four outright upset losses at home to Indiana as 15.5-point favorites, at home to Toronto as 11.5-point favorites and at Minnesota as 5.5-point favorites.  They also needed a late surge to get by the Pelicans by 9 as 14.5-point home favorites.

The Thunder will be without Williams (16.8 PPG), Mitchell (14.1 PPG) and Caruso again tonight.  They can't be favored by 8.5 on the road here without these three, especially with Jokic back for the Nuggets.  This line is inflated.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* Lakers/Knicks NBC No-Brainer on OVER 229

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team going 27-20 OVER in all games this season.  They are coming off a 142-111 road win at Washington for 253 combined points.  The Lakers rank 7th in offensive rating but just 25th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy if Austin Reaves returns tonight, which he is likely to do.

The Knicks are also fully healthy with the exception of Deuce McBride.  They are an elite offensive team ranking 3rd in offensive rating and will hang a big number on the Lakers tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  

It's a good time to 'buy low' on a Knicks OVER considering they have gone under the total in seven straight coming in.  The Lakers are far and away the best offensive team they will have faced during this stretch.  This has shootout written all over it in Madison Square Garden tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Raptors OVER 235.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have consistently topped this 235.5-point total all season.

The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of Jakob Poeltl, which makes them play more small ball without their starting center.  That favors OVERS.  They are coming off a 130-120 loss in Orlando for 250 combined points.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Raptors and Jazz with 238 or more combined points in five of their last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Illinois/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 151.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from a 83-80 road win by Nebraska at Illinois on December 13th.  I fully expect the rematch to be much lower-scoring for a number of reasons today, not the least of which is that familiarity.

Illinois won't have Kylan Boswell (14.3 PPG) for the rematch.  Boswell led the Fighting Illini with 20 points in that first meeting.  Rienk Mast had 17 points for Nebraska, and he is questionable for the rematch though he will likely play.  Braden Frager (12.2 PPG) is questionable as well.

Nebraska shot 12-of-26 (46.2%) from 3-point range in that first meeting with Pryce Sandfort going off for 32 points and 6-of-11 from 3.  You can bet Illinois will guard him much better in the rematch and try and chase the Huskers off the 3-point line.

Illinois is playing much slower this year ranking 254th in adjusted tempo and 302nd in average length of offensive possession.  Nebraska is in no hurry either ranking 210th in adjusted tempo.  Illinois is 13-6 UNDER in its last 19 games overall.  Nebraska is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games overall with 147 or fewer combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland State +9

Cleveland State is playing its best basketball of the season largely due to being as healthy as the Vikings have been all season.  Cleveland State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with three outright upset victories over Youngstown State as 8.5-point home dogs, Wright State as 15.5-point road dogs and Green Bay as 7.5-point road dogs.

Now the Vikings seek revenge on Milwaukee from a 81-71 home loss in their first meeting this season.  They are a lot healthier for the rematch, while Milwaukee has been broken since losing leading scorer Seth Hubbard (16.6 PPG) to a season-ending injury.

Indeed, Milwaukee is just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games without Hubbard.  The two wins came by 12 at home over lowly IU Indy and by 1 at Youngstown State.  The Panthers have rarely been competitive with five losses by double-digits during this stretch.  They have no business being 9-point favorites here, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Cleveland State Sunday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wichita State/Tulsa OVER 151

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-5 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 24th in adjusted offense and 171st in adjusted defense.  They rank 13th in effective FG percentage and 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage as they are an elite shooting team that has scored 82 points or more in 5 consecutive games.  They are scoring 87.7 points per game this season.

Wichita State is coming off consecutive unders but they have played a bevy of under teams here recently in Memhis, ECU, North Texas and Rice.  Against some good offenses like USF, FAU and Charlotte they went for 204, 171 and 152 combined points.  Wichita State has scored at least 74 points in eight of its last 10 games overall, and if it gets to 74 today this thing is going OVER with ease.

This will be their first meeting with Tulsa, another elite offensive team that they won't be prepared for.  This has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary's +10

Gonzaga remains without Braden Huff (17.89 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Graham Ike (18.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG) is questionable.  I expect Ike to go, but the Bulldogs should not be favored by double-digits over St. Mary's without Huff.

St. Mary's is 19-3 this season including 5-1 in true road games.  Gonzaga was life and death in a 68-66 win as 15.5-point home favorites over San Francisco last time out.  St. Mary's is 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Gonzaga as this rivalry has really swung in their favor in recent years.  Bet St. Mary's Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on CS-Fullerton +9.5

Fullerton has a big rest advantage over UCSB tonight that isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Titans have had the last six days off since beating Cal Poly 93-78 on the road last Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Gauchos are coming off a huge road win at UC-San Diego on Thursday and have only had one day off in between games.  They will also be playing their 4th game in 10 days.  They are overvalued off five straight victories.

Fullerton already beat UCSB 95-84 as 3.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  They won that game despite UCSB shooting 41.2% from 3 and 100% from the FT line while they shot just 29.4% from 3.  They forced 24 turnovers, and turnovers will be an issue for the Gauchos again tonight on tired legs.  Bet Fullerton Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves -7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are fully healthy and crushing the opposition.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 25-point home win over Golden State, a 13-point road win at Dallas and a 12-point upset home win over the OKC Thunder the very next night.

The Memphis Grizzlies are down and out.  It's a banged up Grizzlies team full of trade rumors surrounding Ja Morant, who remains out with an injury.  Santi Aldama, Brandon Clark, Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome are all out, too.  And now Jaren Jackson Jr. will sit tonight.

It's no wonder the Grizzlies are just 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Two wins came by a combined 6 points while the other was in the revenge game against the Magic overseas.

Memphis will have nothing left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 114-106 road loss to the New Orleans Pelicans last night.  They have very little talent with the lineups they will be sending on the court tonight, and certainly not enough talent to compete with a team the caliber of Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -1.5

Northwestern has had some tough luck in close games this season with seven losses by 7 points or less.  The Wildcats are much better than their 10-11 record would indicate.  They have taken a step down in class recently and taken advantage with wins over USC on the road and Penn State by 21 at home in two of their last three games.

Now the Wildcats host another team they can handle in the Washington Huskies.  The Huskies are 2-5 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming against Washington State and USC out on the West Coast.  They have not had success when traveling East going 0-4 SU in those Big Ten road games.  They also lost at Seattle.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton +7.5

The UConn Huskies are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 20-1 this season, but they have just barely been getting bye in Big East play.  They have gone 8-1 in games decided by 6 points or less and OT games this season.

A lot of those have come recently as the Huskies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They needed OT to beat Providence as 9.5-point favorites, only beat DePaul by 12 as 19.5-point home favorites, only beat Seton Hall by 5 as 6.5-point road favorites and beat Georgetown by 2 as 11.5-point road favorites.  Georgetown is winless in conference play this season.  They needed OT to beat Villanova 75-67 as 11.5-point home favorites last weekend, and again struggled to get by Providence in a 87-81 home win as 15.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Creighton Bluejays after their worst loss of the season, a 86-62 road loss to lowly Marquette where they had an off shooting night at 40.6% from the field and 20.6% from 3-point range.  They were probably lolking ahead to this game against UConn.

Creighton had gone 7-3 SU in its previous 10 games with two losses coming by 2 and 5 points.  The Bluejays will play much better at home here, where they are 8-2 SU this season.  They are 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings with UConn.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers ML +105

The Indiana Pacers are a s healthy as they have been all season and playing some of their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall with upset wins over OKC, Chicago, Boston, Miami and Charlotte.

The Pacers will be motivated for revenge after losing 132-116 in Atlanta just five days ago.  They are rested and ready for revenge after having the last two days off, and they will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Hawks are a tired, beat up team playing their 3rd game in 4 days after a 104-86 home loss to Houston.  They are without both Kristaps Porzingis (17.1 PPG) and Onyeka Okongwu (16.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG), so they will get dominated in the paint without their two big men.  Both Jalen Johnson (22.9 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 7.9 APG) and Zacharie Risacher (11.2 PPG) are questionable to play tonight for the Hawks, too.  Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas -6

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a wagon at home this season.  They are 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in all home games outscoring opponents by 22.3 points per game.  That includes impressive home wins over Tennessee by 11, South Carolina by 34, Vanderbilt by 25 and Louisville by 9.

Now the Razorbacks will be amped up to get some revenge for John Calipari against the Kentucky Wildcats.  Kentucky is one of the most fraudulent teams in the SEC and has been exposed on the road this season.  The Wildcats lost by 25 at Vanderbilt and by 15 at Alabama.  They also lost by 8 at Louisville. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Utah OVER 168

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 13th in adjusted tempo and 96th in adjusted defense.  The Cowboys are coming off some tough games against good defenses in TCU and Iowa State.  But the Utah Utes are not that.

Utah ranks 71st in adjusted offense but just 225th in adjusted defense as one of the worst defensive teams in Power 4.  That explains why Utah is 15-5 OVER in all games this season as one of the best OVER teams in the country.

That has especially been the case at home where Utah is 11-0 OVER in its 11 home games averaging 169.2 combined points per game.  The Utes and their opponents have routinely topped 160 combined points all season.  The same goes for Oklahoma State.  This game screams shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Sky TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eastern Washington/Northern Colorado OVER 156.5

Northern Colorado is 13-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Bears rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 129th in adjusted offense and 267th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 83.5 points per game and allowing 78.2 points per game to combine with their opponents to average 161.7 points per game.

Eastern Washington is 13-7 OVER in all games this season including 11-2 OVER in road games.  The Eagles rank 145th in adjusted tempo, 154th in adjusted offense and just 308th in adjusted defense.  They are averaging 78.0 points per game and allowing 88.7 points per game on the road this season, combining for 166.7 points per game away from home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on Omaha/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 17-3 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 17 of their last 20 games overall.  They rank 87th in adjusted offense and 362nd in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving Denver.

Omaha is 269th in adjusted defense.  They did score 80 points against SDSU and 77 against UMKC in their last two games and are capable of getting into a shootout with Denver, especially now that they are healthy offensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville/Northern Iowa UNDER 130

Northern Iowa is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Panthers rank 364th in adjusted tempo, 274th in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  The Panthers are 14-7 UNDER in all games this season.

Evansville is also an UNDER team ranking 322nd in adjusted tempo, 198th in adjusted defense and 267th in average length of offensive possession.

This will be a rematch from a 62-48 win by Northern Iowa on the road for 110 combined points on January 4th.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Miami Ohio OVER 156

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 94.1 points per game this season.  They rank 46th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 172nd in adjusted defense.  

The Redhawks are 14-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 156 is too short for a game involving Miami Ohio right now.

Northern Illinois should be able to hang a big number on Miami Ohio's pour defense to contribute to this total.  They recently put up 77 points at Ohio and 85 points at home against Western Michigan.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's ML -120

The St. Joe's Hawks are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming 79-72 at VCU as 14.5-point dogs.  They have handled everyone else, and they will handle lowly La Salle today.

La Salle is 7-14 SU in all games this season.  The Explorers are 231st in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense and really don't do a lot right.  Their last four wins all came by 7 points or fewer, while six of their last eight losses came by double-digits.  Bet St. Joe's Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +14.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They upset Cincinnati 82-68 as 2.5-point home dogs two games ago before giving UCF everything it wanted on the road in a 79-76 loss as 6.5-point dogs last time out.

Now the Sun Devils want revenge on their biggest rivals in the Arizona Wildcats.  They only lost 89-82 as 21.5-point dogs at Arizona in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching a whopping 14.5 points at home in the rematch.

Arizona is 'fat and happy' off a 86-83 road win at BYU that kept their perfect 21-0 season alive.  Having already beaten ASU just a few weeks ago, the Wildcats won't be all that motivated to do it again.  Asking them to go on the road and win by 15-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on SMU/Louisville OVER 161.5

The Louisville Cardinals just got back one of their best players in Mikel Brown Jr. (16.1 PPG) from injury after missing eight games.  They are much more explosive offensively with him in the lineup than without him.

The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team ranking 67th in adjusted tempo, 12th in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 86.0 points per game on the season and 91.6 points per game at home and have yet to play an OT game.

SMU ranks 121st in adjusted tempo, 46th in average length of offensive possession and 18th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 87.3 points per game this season.  SMU has been off for a week and will be fresh and ready to run with Louisville, which has also had the last four days off.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +13.5

The Boston College Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with only one loss by more than 13 points, and that 13-point loss came at Louisville.  They lost by 8 to NC State at home, upset Syracuse by 8 at home, upset Pitt by 3 at home and only lost by 4 at Notre Dame as 7.5-point dogs.

Now the Eagles have a big rest and preparation advantage heading into this showdown with Virginia.  Boston College has had the last week off, while Virginia will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days.  The Cavaliers are off three straight wars winning by 4 at SMU, losing by 5 at home to UNC and winning by 3 in 2 OT at Notre Dame.  I question how much the Cavaliers will have left in the tank off that 2 OT game.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW -2

IPFW is 9-2 at home this season.  The Mastadons are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to Oakland, which may be the best team in the Horizon League.  They beat Robert Morris 79-74 on the road during this stretch.

Robert Morris played its last three games at home and now hits the road where it is 5-6 SU this season.  The Colonials are at a severe rest disadvantage playing their 4th game in 10 days, while the Mastadons will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.  Bet IPFW Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Nets/Jazz OVER 226.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  This total of 226.5 is way too low for a game involving the Jazz, especially with them controlling the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Jazz are 19-7 OVER in all home games this season.  They are averaging 122.7 points per game and allowing 129.8 points per game at home, combining with their opponents to average 252.5 combined points per game.

The Jazz beat the Nets 123-110 in their first meeting this season for 233 combined points in a game that went over the 231.5-point total.  This total cannot be adjusted 5 points down in the rematch.  The Nets shot just 11-of-42 (26%) from 3 in that first meeting, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6

The Los Angeles Clippers are 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-103 home win over the lowly Brooklyn Nets last night.  It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days.

I released this play before the surprising news that Nikola Jokic would return tonight, but he will be on a minutes restriction.  The Nuggets are still without several key players including Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, Christian Braun and possibly others.  I like the spot for the Clippers either way.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season and playing well.  They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset the Grizzlies 133-127 as 4.5-point road dogs, upset the Spurs 104-95 as 11.5-point road dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 9-point loss as 14.5-point road dogs.

Now the Pelicans are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They will be hosting the same Grizzlies team they just beat on the road.  It's a banged up Grizzlies team full of trade rumors surrounding Ja Morant, who remains out with an injury.  Santi Aldama, Brandon Clark, Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome are all out, too.

It's no wonder the Grizzlies are just 3-11 SU & 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Two wins came by a combined 6 points while the other was in the revenge game against the Magic overseas.  This is one of the worst teams in the NBA right now in their current state, and they are getting way too much respect here as only 2-point road dogs at New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans OVER 231

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off here in the Pelicans and Grizzlies.  This will be a rematch from a 133-127 win by the Pelicans on January 23rd just a week ago today that saw 260 combined points.  It's not like either team shot lights out with the Grizzlies are 48.9% from the field and 38.3% from 3-point range and the Pelicans at 46.5% from the field and 36.1% from 3-point range.

The Pelicans rank 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Grizzlies rank 12th in pace.  Both teams want to get up and down, and this total of 231 is too short for a game involving these two teams, especially when you consider the total a week ago was set at 240.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence/Villanova OVER 156

The books cannot set these Providence totals high enough.  The Friars are 15-6 OVER in all games including 5-1 OVER in road games.  Providence and its opponents have combined for at least 158 points in 18 of its 21 games this season.  This total of 156 is too low.

The Friars rank 16th in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession, 25th in adjusted offense and 196th in adjusted defense.  No opponent has been able to take them out of their game.  They are going to play fast no matter what.

That was the case in the first meeting this season with Villanova.  The Wildcats won that game 88-82 for 170 combined points and an absolute shootout.  Neither team shot lights out as Villanova shot 35.7% from 3 while Providence shot 32%.  The rematch should easily top 156 combined points again.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kent State/Akron OVER 165.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 32nd in adjusted tempo, 28th in average length of offensive possession, 22nd in adjusted offense and just 157th in adjusted defense.  The Zips rank 5th in effective FG percentage and are an elite offensive team, in fact one of the best offensive teams in the country.

The Zips are scoring 92.6 points per game overall and 97.5 points per game at home despite not playing a single OT game all season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all home games this season combining with their opponents to average 170.3 points per game in their 11 home games.

Kent State is an elite offensive team as well scoring 89.2 points per game this season.  The Golden Flashes also like to play fast ranking 26th in adjusted tempo.  They rank 116th in adjusted offense and just 204th in adjusted defense.  This game has shootout written all over it tonight in a game that will see a ton of possessions and elite offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Ivy League PLAY OF THE DAY on Princeton/Cornell OVER 160

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in average length of offensive possession, 56th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage offense, 347th in adjusted defense and 361st in effective FG percentage defense.

Cornell is 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Big Red and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in 17 of their 18 games this season while topping this total 14 times.  This total of 160 is very short for a game involving the Big Red, who will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Princeton and Cornell.  They combined for 172 and 161 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Timberwolves NBA No-Brainer on UNDER 224.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams met in the playoffs last year and they have already squared off twice this season.  Each of the first two meetings this season went UNDER the total with 218 and 219 combined points.  This total of 224.5 is too high tonight given the familiarity and the defensive intensity these teams play with when they get together.

Oklahoma City has so many injuries that are really hampering them offensively.  The Thunder are without Williams (16.8 PPG) and Mitchell (14.1 PPG) with Wallace (7.3 PPG) questionable tonight.  They are coming off a pair of very low-scoring games losing 103-101 to Toronto for 204 combined points and winning 104-95 over New Orleans for 199 combined points.  

The Thunder have gone for 224 or fewer combined points in five of their last eight games overall.  Minnesota is 4-0 UNDER in its last four games overall.  That includes 196 combined points with Golden State, 191 with the Warriors again, and 223 with the Mavericks.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Northwestern OVER 148

Penn State really profiles as an OVER team.  The Nittany Lions are 11-9 OVER in all games this season including 4-1 OVER in road games despite not playing a single OT game.  They rank 79th in adjusted offense but just 227th in adjusted defense, making them one of the worst Power 4 defensive teams in the country.

Northwestern is a very good offensive team ranking 59th in adjusted offense but just 92nd in adjusted defense as this is one of the worst defensive teams of the Chris Collins era in Evanston.  And I think this is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on Northwestern OVER.

I say that because Northwestern has gone under the total in four consecutive games.  But the Wildcats have been playing slow, plodding, solid defensive teams for a month.  Their last seven games have come against UCLA (312th adjusted tempo), USC (76th), Nebraska (203rd), Illinois (242nd), Rutgers (287th), Michigan State (277th) and Minnesota (350th).

Penn State beat Northwestern 84-80 for 164 combined points in their lone meeting last season.  That total was set at 144.5.  Both teams are more OVER teams this season with even worse defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on North Dakota +12.5

North Dakota is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Both losses came by exactly 11 points.  The Fighting Hawks are 8-3 ATS in true road games this season and one of the more underrated teams in the country.  They have pulled outright upsets in each of their last three road games.

Now the Fighting Hawks want revenge from a 91-80 home loss to St. Thomas in their first meeting this season.  What really stood out to me in that game is the Tommies only won by 11 despite shooting a unsustainable 65.1% from the field and an outlandish 16-of-24 (66.7%) from 3-point range.  

It's safe to say the Tommies aren't going to come close to shooting it that well again in the rematch, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 12.5-point spread.  St. Thomas hasn't won a conference game by more than 13 points all season.  Bet North Dakota Thursday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado +17.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Colorado Buffaloes after going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  All five losses came by 11 points or fewer, so they have just had some bad luck in close games.  In fact, they haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season.

The Iowa State Cyclones have regressed going 2-2 SU in their last four games with outright upset losses at Kansas and at Cincinnati.  The Cyclones aren't blowing teams out in Big 12 play with just one win by more than 13 points in their last six contests.  Asking them to win this game by 18-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

20* CAA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on William & Mary/Elon OVER 166.5

William & Mary is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Tribe rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession.  The Tribe went for 167 combined points with Charleston, 186 with NC A&T and 171 with Hofstra in recent conference games.

Elon is 13-6 OVER in all games and 7-2 OVER in home games this season.  What makes the Phoenix an OVER team is that they are great offensively ranking 83rd in adjusted offense and terrible defensively ranking 298th in adjusted defense.

Both teams have put up similar numbers offensively this season.  The Tribe are averaging 83.6 points per game while the Phoenix are averaging 83.2 points per game.  Elon is coming off two poor shooting performances in a row, but will get right tonight and hang a big number on this Tribe defense.  This game will see a ton of possessions with offense winning out over defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have gone 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with blowout wins over the 76ers by 37 at home, and the Nuggets by 23 and Magic by 27 on the road.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

A big reason for this Charlotte resurgence is the health of their four best players in Ball, Bridges, Knueppel and Miller, who are all averaging at least 18.5 points per game.  Collin Sexton (14.6 PPG) is healthy as well.  The lineup of those first four plus Moussa Diabate (8.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) has been one of the best lineups in the NBA this season.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a mess right now.  They are without JA Morant, and they are dealing with trade rumors involving him as well.  They just don't have that much talent without him, which is a big reason they are 3-10 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/UMKC OVER 161

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 17-2 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 17 of their last 19 games overall.  They rank 81st in adjusted offense and 363rd in adjusted defense.  This total of 161 is very short for a game involving Denver.

UMKC likes to play fast ranking 87th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Roos are also a terrible defensive team ranking 321st in adjusted defense, so there won't be many stops here.  The OVER is 8-2 in UMKC's last 10 games overall, and the Roos and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in six of their last nine games overall.

Denver beat UMKC 87-74 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  Amazingly, it got to 161 despite UMKC shooting just 4-of-21 (19%) from 3 while Denver shot just 46.8% overall and 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3.  I have to think UMKC will shoot much better in the rematch at home and this game will easily top 161 combined points as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are 0-3 SU in three meetings with the Orlando Magic this season with losses by 1, 4 and 9 points.  All three meetings were on the road in Orlando, and now the Heat get them at home for the first time this season.  No question they are highly motivated tonight playing with triple revenge.

The Heat are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now coming off road wins at Utah by 31 and Phoenix by 9 on back-to-back days.  They have since had the last two days off to rest and prepare to get their revenge, and I expect a big effort from them back at home tonight where they are 15-7 this season.

The Magic are playing some of their worst basketball of the season coming into this one.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 17 to Memphis overseas, by 27 to Charlotte at home, by 14 to Cleveland at home and by 16 to Cleveland on the road.

A big reason for the Magic struggles is that they are without arguably their most important player in Franz Wagner (22.1 PPG).  Orlando is just 9-12 SU on the road this season.  The Magic are just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW +2

IPFW is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and playing its best basketball of the season.  The Mastadons are 9-1 SU at home this season.  They want revenge from a 101-92 road loss at Oakland in their first meeting this season.  Oakland shot an unsustainable 53% from teh field and 44.8% from 3 in that first meeting.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden Grizzlies, who have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming in.  They won't be that motivated to beat IFPW again.  The Mastadons have a huge rest advantage here with a full week off prior to this game to rest and prepare for revenge.  Oakland will be playing its 7th game in 18 days.  Bet IPFW Wednesday.

15* Horizon League Total DOMINATOR on Oakland/IPFW OVER 164

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team going 15-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 58th in adjusted offense and just 290th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 164 or more combined points in 13 of their 22 games this season.

IPFW is 10-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Mastadons rank 139th in adjusted tempo and 248th in adjusted defense.  This will be a rematch from a 101-92 home win by Oakland for 193 combined points on December 3rd.  We have 29 points to spare here with this total of 164 in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +4.5

Charlotte will be out for revenge from a 76-73 home loss to Temple in their first meeting this season on December 30th.  The 49ers shot just 5-of-17 (29.4%) from 3 while the Owls shot 7-of-14 (50%) from 3 in that game.  I have to think the 49ers have some shooting regression working in their favor in the rematch.

Charlotte has gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its six games since that loss to Temple.  The 49ers have a big rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 10 days tonight, so they will not only be rested but extra prepared for revenge.

Temple will be playing its 4th game in 11 days.  The Owls won't be that motivated to beat the 49ers again.  They are coming off a lackluster 70-64 win as 10.5-point favorites at UTSA, the worst team in the AAC.  Bet Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler +13.5

Butler will be out for revenge from an 84-70 home loss to St. John's on January 6th as 4.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 13.5-point road dogs in the rematch, a 9-point adjustment that is simply too much.

Butler is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games overall beating Marquette by 11 and DePaul by 7 at home, while also upsetting Seton Hall 77-66 as 6.5-point road dogs.  The Bulldogs have had the last four days off to rest and prepare to beat St. John's in the rematch.

The Red Storm are coming off three straight narrow wins at Villanova by 7, at home against Seton Hall by 5 and at Xavier by 5.  They were fortunate to win all three games.  They only had three days to get ready for this game after beating Xavier over the weekend.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Red Storm off six straight victories.  Bet Butler Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas/Auburn OVER 155.5

Auburn is 12-8 OVER in all games this season going for 155 or more combined points in 14 of its 20 games this season.  The Tigers rank 14th in adjusted offense but just 64th in adjusted defense.

Texas is 12-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Longhorns and their opponents have combined for at least 154 points in 12 of their last 16 games overall.  They rank 9th in adjusted offense and just 99th in adjusted defense.  This total of 155.5 is too low for a game involving Texas and Auburn right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on IU Indy/Robert Morris OVER 158

This total of 158 is too short for a game involving IU Indy.  The Jaguars rank 1st in the entire country in adjusted tempo.  They also rank 351st in adjusted defense.  This total of 158 is actually the 2nd-lowest total for a game involving IU Indy all season, so that fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.

IU Indy went for 178, 189, 157 and 188 combined points in its last four games overall.  One of those was against Robert Morris, tonight's opponent.  They beat Robert Morris 96-93 (OT) at home in a game that was tied 81-81 at the end of regulation for 162 combined points, which would have topped this total.

Robert Morris is now 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Colonials rank 158th in adjusted offense but just 255th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 162 or more combined points at the end of regulation in five of their last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* New Mexico/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 154.5

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 55th in adjusted tempo, 53rd in average length of offensive possession and 152nd in adjusted defense.  The Rebels and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in 10 of their 19 games this season.

New Mexico has a similar profile ranking 53rd in adjusted tempo and 50th in average length of offensive possession, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  The Lobos are 14-5 OVER in all games this season, including 5-1 OVER in road games.  They have gone for at least 150 combined points in five of their last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Joe's -3

Loyola-Chicago is one of the worst teams in the country and oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust for just how bad they are.  The Ramblers are 5-16 SU & 5-16 ATS in all games this season.  They have lost seven straight overall coming into this one, yet here they are again getting respect as only 3-point underdogs to St. Joe's.

The St. Joe's Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes four outright upset wins as underdogs as this team has been grossly undervalued.  The lone loss came by 7 at VCU as 14.5-point dogs, and VCU is one of the best teams in the conference.

The Hawks beat St. Bonaventure, Dayton and Duquesne during this stretch.  The Ramblers went 0-3 against those same three teams losing to St. Bonaventure by 14, Dayton by 27 and Duquesne by 12.  Bet St. Joe's Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMass/Miami Ohio OVER 164.5

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 94.2 points per game this season.  They rank 35th in adjusted tempo, 69th in adjusted offense and 141st in adjusted defense.  

The Redhawks are 13-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 164.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Miami Ohio right now.

UMass plays even faster, ranking 22nd in adjusted tempo this season.  The Minutemen are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall including 172 combined points with Bowling Green at the end of regulation, 169 with Ohio, 167 with Western Michigan and 166 with Toledo. This total is short for UMass right now, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +14.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are decimated by injuries right now.  They are without Jalen Williams (16.8 PPG), Ajay Mitchell (14.1 PPG), Isaiah Hartenstein (11.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG) and Alex Caruso with Cason Wallace listed as questionable.

It's easy to see why the Thunder haven't been living up to expectations without these guys.  In fact, they are coming off consecutive upset losses to the Pacers 117-114 as 15.5-point home favorites and the Raptors 103-101 as 11.5-point home favorites.  Now they are favored by 14.5 against the Pelicans, which is too much without these guys.

The Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season.  That helps explain why they are coming off consecutive outright upset road victories at Memphis 133-127 as 4.5-point dogs and at San Antonio 104-95 as 11.5-point dogs.  Now they will be motivated to give the defending champs a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -8.5

The Saint Louis Billikens are flying under the radar as one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Billikens are 19-1 SU & 12-7 ATS this season, including 13-0 SU & 9-3 ATS at home where they are outscoring opponents by 31.6 points per game.

In their three A-10 home games, Saint Louis crushed Richmond by 25, Fordham by 22 and St. Joe's by 23.  They actually rank 1st in the country in effective FG percentage on offense AND 1st in effective FG percentage defense, which is something I don't think I've ever seen before.  The Billikens will now make easy work of George Washington, which has only beaten one team all season ranked in the Top 117 at Kenpom.

The Revolutionaries are just 7-7 SU & 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games against division 1 opponents.  They even lost outright as 23.5-point favorites by 12 to Delaware during this stretch.  They only have two days to get ready for St. Louis after playing on Saturday, while the Billikens have three days off in between games.  Bet Saint Louis Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -14

The New York Knicks have finally had some time off to get healthy.  They are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and it's starting to show.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games beating Brooklyn 120-66 as 12.5-point home favorites and Philadelphia 112-109 as 1.5-point road favorites.

The Knicks will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They want revenge from a 112-101 loss at Sacramento as 10.5-point favorites on January 14th, which is the game Jalen Brunson got hurt in and played just 5 minutes before exiting.

The Kings will be without three of their top seven scorers tonight in LaVine (19.5 PPG), Murray (14.6 PPG) and Monk (12.5 PPG).  They stand little chance of keeping this game competitive without these three guys.

The Kings have really come back down to reality in recent weeks going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS n their last five games overall.  They are coming off a 139-1116 loss in Detroit.  They will be playing their 3rd consecutive road game and their 10th game in 17 days, so they are a very tired team right now.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Providence +15.5

The UConn Huskies are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 19-1 this season, but they have just barely been getting bye in Big East play.  They have gone 7-1 in games decided by 5 points or less and OT games this season.

A lot of those have come recently as the Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Providence as 9.5-point favorites, only beat DePaul by 12 as 19.5-point home favorites, only beat Seton Hall by 5 as 6.5-point road favorites and beat Georgetown by 2 as 11.5-point road favorites.  Georgetown is winless in conference play this season.  And they needed OT to beat Villanova 75-67 as 11.5-point home favorites over the weekend.

Providence wants revenge from that 103-98 (OT) home loss to UConn as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting on January 7th just three weeks ago.  The Friars are much better than their 9-11 record would indicate as they have had poor luck in close games.  They are 0-4 in OT games this season and 3-8 in games decided by single-digits this season, meaning they've only lost three times all season by double-digits, and only one of those came by more than 13 points.  Bet Providence Tuesday.

20* Nebraska/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan -10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Michigan.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming into this one.  I think they've just been going through the motions a little bit, but they will certainly get up for this game against unbeaten Nebraska and put their best foot forward at home tonight.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Nebraska after a 20-0 start which has included a 5-1 ATS mark in their last six games overall.  They had huge comeback wins in the 2H in their at Indiana and at Minnesota recently.  But this will easily be their toughest test of the season.

Both Braden Frager (12.2 PPG) and Ugnius Jarusevicius (7.0 PPG) are questionable to play for Nebraska tonight after both sat out last game.  The Huskers aren't a very deep team as it is, and the Wolverines will test their tired legs.

Michigan ranks 11th in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession, 7th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.  They play at a break-neck pace and do so very efficiently.  That's why I'm willing to lay this big number with the Wolverines.  Bet Michigan Tuesday.

15* ACC Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Syracuse/NC State OVER 151.5

NC State really profiles as an OVER team.  The Wolfpack rank 98th in adjusted tempo, 55th in average length of offensive possession and 29th in adjusted offense.  They have gone 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 150 or more combined points in all five games.

Syracuse is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Orange and their opponents have combined for at least 150 points in all six games.  This total of 151.5 is very short for a game involving Syracuse and NC State right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Arizona/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on BYU +1.5

Arizona (20-0) is one of three remaining unbeaten teams in the country.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to, and added pressure with each game to keep that unbeaten record.  It comes to an end tonight.

Arizona has only played four true road games all season.  Three of them came against Big 12 bottom feeders in UCF, TCU and Utah.  This trip to BYU will be by far their toughest test of the season.

BYU is 17-2 this season with its only losses both coming on the road at UConn by 2 and at Texas Tech.  The Cougars are 9-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 26.4 points per game.  This will be the best home atmosphere for a BYU home game all season, and their home-court advantage is not being factored into this line enough.

BYU has the rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  Arizona will be playing its 3rd game in 6 days and its 7th game in 20 days.  Bet BYU Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season thanks to a return to health.  They beat Brooklyn by 22 at home, the Clippers by 28 at home, upset the Timberwolves by 5 as 9.5-point road dogs and upset the Celtics by 3 as 3.5-point home dogs.

The Bulls should not be home underdogs to the Lakers, who are in a massive letdown spot.  After losing to the Clippers, they bounced back with a 116-110 road win at Dallas, a game that was very important to Luka Doncic.  Now they will have a letdown here after those two huge games.

The Lakers will be playing in their 6th different arena in 10 days with a lot of travel considering five of those six games were on the road.  They are a banged up team playing without Austin Reaves (26.6 PPG, 6.3 APG), and Jake LaRavia (9.5 PPG) is questionable tonight.

The Lakers are just 4-6 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulls are 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Lakers with four of those wins coming by double-digits.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* Louisville/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +8.5

I love the spot for the Louisville Cardinals tonight.  Louisville was a 1.5-point home dog to Duke in the first meeting this season, blowing a 9-point halftime lead in a 84-73 home loss.  Now the Cardinals are 8.5-point dogs on the road in the rematch, a 7-point adjustment that is not warranted.

The biggest reason it's unwarranted is because Louisville didn't have its best player in Mikel Brown Jr. (16.9 PPG, 5.2 APG) in that first meeting.  Brown Jr. just returned last game and poured in 20 points with 6 assists in a 85-71 home win over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies shot a ridiculous 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range and still lost by 14.

Brown has meant everything to the Cardinals' success this season.  He has missed eight games, and the Cardinals are just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in their eight games without Brown.  They are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in the 11 games Brown has played.

Duke has some concerning performances at home in ACC play that really stand out.  They only beat SMU by 7 as 15.5-point favorites and Georgia Tech by 6 as 27.5-point favorites.  I can't see them being all that motivated to beat Louisville again, and asking them to win this game by 9-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Louisville Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 239.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 133-127 win at Memphis for 260 combined points, and it will be more of the same tonight against the Spurs.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a potent offensive team in their current state.

This is a good opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER in a game involving the Spurs.  They have gone under the total in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  But they are now as healthy as they have been all season and get Devin Vassell (14.9 PPG) back from injury.  They have eight players averaging double-digits scoring and all eight are available tonight.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings.  Each of the last two meetings this season were extremely high-scoring as they combined for 267 and 245 points.  This total of 239.5 is too short tonight given how healthy both teams are.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC Championship No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

Note: I released this play early in the week at +3.  I would still play it as a 20* with the Rams +2.5 or any ML underdog price.

I have the Los Angeles Rams power rated as the best team in the NFL.  So they cannot be catching a full 3 points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  This is tremendous value, especially when you consider the Rams were 3-point home favorites and only 1.5-point road dogs in the first two meetings in this series.

The Seahawks are getting too much respect for their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  That was a tired, beat up 49ers team that left it all on the field against the Eagles the previous week.  It was a 49ers team down several key starters, and one that lost two more key weapons in that game with RB McCaffrey and backup TE Tonges both going out with injuries.

The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD against the 49ers and it was basically over from there.  They got to dictate the terms the rest of the game.  Sam Darnold only went 12-of-17 passing for 124 yards so he didn't even really have to test is injured oblique.  The Rams won 41-6 despite just 281 total yards of offense and outgaining the 49ers by just 45 yards.  It was a very misleading final as they were also +3 in turnovers.

Darnold will have to make more plays in the passing game for the Seahawks to be successful because the Rams are going to get their points.  The Rams have the best offense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring at 30.1 points per game, 1st in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.

In their first meeting with the Seahawks, the Rams won 21-19 at home.  They jumped out to a 14-3 and got conservative from there.  The Rams lost 38-37 (OT) in the 2nd meeting in Seattle.  They again had a 30-14 lead in the 4th quarter and got conservative, plus had a few breaks go against them.  They deserved to win that game.

Indeed, the Rams racked up 581 total yards on the Seahawks, who are supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They did it without Davante Adams as well, and he is back now.  They outgained the Seahawks by 166 yards.  Stafford threw for 457 yards and 3 TD in the loss.  The Seahawks even benefited from a 58-yard punt return TD.

The Rams went a lot of 12 personnel in that 2nd meeting with more two TE sets.  The Seahawks rank 29th out of 32 teams in the NFL in defending tight ends.  TE may be the Rams' most underrated position with Ferguson, Parkinson and Hibgee all playmakers.  They have no weaknesses on offense, especially with RG Kevin Dotson returning last week.  The Rams are the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL.  Plus, Stafford hasn't been sacked once in 79 drop backs in two meetings with the Seahawks this season, so they have schemed it up well.

The underrated unit in this matchup is this Rams defense.  It has been so much better with CB Quentin Lake on the field, and he has returned for the playoffs.  In fact, the Rams are allowing 0.6 yards per play fewer with Lake on the field than off it this season.  It really shows up against the run as they allow 3.9 yards per carry with Lake on the field and 4.8 per carry without him.  He's a great tackler on the perimeter, and the Seahawks aren't going to have the same kind of success running outside like they did against the 49ers.  Backup CB Emmanuel Forbes returns this week, and the Rams are fully healthy in the secondary as well.  They couldn't be more healthy than they are right now.

Sean McVay is the better coach here as Mike McDonald has not been in this position before.  McVay is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 meetings with the Seahawks.  The Rams are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS against the Seahawks with Stafford at QB with the lone loss coming by a single point.  Teams on a 7-plus game winning streak entering the conference championship game are just 4-12 ATS since 2002.  This trend just shows how overvalued these teams become.  I'll gladly back the better team catching a full FG here.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* USC/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on OVER 158.5

Wisconsin is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Badgers rank 48th in adjusted tempo, 33rd in adjusted offense and 59th in adjusted defense.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with the lone under coming by a 0.5 point in a 80-72 win over slow-paced UCLA and a total of 152.5.  

The Badgers went for 162 combined points with Purdue, 179 with Michigan and 183 with slow-paced Rutgers during this stretch.  They are coming off a 98-71 win over Penn State for 169 combined points.  This total of 158.5 is too short for a game involving Wisconsin right now.

USC also likes to play fast so there will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunties for points.  The Trojans rank 56th in adjusted tempo.  They have gone under the total in five of their last six games, which is why this is a good opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER involving USC.

But USC has faced several slow-paces teams during this under stretch with four of the unders coming against Northwestern (264th in tempo), Purdue (290th), Minnesota (351st) and Michigan State (279th).  They did combine for 159 points with Maryland (179th) and 162 points with Michigan (12th), which both topped this 158.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship No-Brainer on Denver +5.5

Note: I released this play early in the week at +5.5.  I would still play it as a 20* down to +3.5.

This line would have been Denver -1.5 with a healthy Bo Nix.  It opened at Denver +5.5 once it was announced he would be out.  That's a 7-point adjustment from Bo Nix to backup QB Jarrett Stidham.  That's simply too much.  I have a 3-point difference between these QB's and that might even be high.

Nix has been the weak link on this Denver team all season.  Yes, he has come up clutch and has made the plays that he has had to, but they have been winning in spite of him.  Nix has averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with a 90.5 QB Rating in his career.  Stidham is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt in his career.

Stidham is one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL just because he has only made four career starts.  He was drafted by the Patriots to replace Tom Brady, which is how highly they thought of him.  New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels traded for him when he took over as the Raiders head coach.  And Stidham was the first player Sean Payton signed when he took over in Denver, which is how highly he thought of him.  He is one of the top paid backup QB's in the NFL for a reason.

In the preseason this year, Stidham completed 30-of-38 (78.9%) of his passes for 376 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Hew threw for 240 yards and 2 TD's against the Cardinals.  He threw for 136 yards and 2 TD's while also rushing for 36 yards against the 49ers.  He is probably even a more accurate passer than Nix, and though he isn't as mobile, he is mobile enough.

The weakness of this New England defense is their pass defense, so this sets up well for Stidham.  They rank 24th allowing 64.3% completions.  There's no head coach you'd want more to guide a backup QB than Sean Payton.  He is 12-9 SU & 14-7 ATS in his head coaching career with a backup QB starting.

The Patriots have gotten here by facing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history.  It has carried over into the playoffs.  Justin Herbert is a shell of himself in the playoffs, and he is playing behind the worst offensive line in the league.  Last week, CJ Stroud and the Texans gave the game away with five turnovers.  The Texans also have a bottom 5 offensive line.  The Patriots only had 248 total yards in that win in terrible conditions.

The Broncos have the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines in this game.  They are led by a defense that ranks 3rd in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 287.7 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They have been the best defense in the NFL over the last decade in preventing explosive plays, and that's what the Patriots really rely on offensively.

Drake Maye has gotten away with his poor play because the Chargers and Texans couldn't do anything offensively to take advantage.  Maye already has 6 fumbles and 2 INT in two games in these playoffs.  Now he plays the league's best pass rush in the Broncos, who lead the NFL in sacks.  He doesn't protect the ball and cannot feel pressure very well, and he will be under duress all game.  I don't think he'll get away with his poor decision making on the road in a hostile environment against the Broncos.

Both WR's Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin were ruled out early last week in their win over Buffalo.  The Broncos were able to overcome it, plus an injury to C Alex Forsyth.  But Bryant was a full participant in practice on Thursday and will be a full go, while Franklin and Forsyth both got in limited practices, a sign that they are trending in the right direction.  Now RB JK Dobbins was designated to return from IR this week and would give the offense a huge boost if he returns.  He got in a limited practice Thursday s well.

Home underdogs of +4 or higher in the playoffs are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years.  Drake May won his first two career playoff starts.  Of the seven previous QB's in this spot, they have combined to go 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their 3rd career playoff game.  The Broncos have the rest advantage, and Payton is 5-0 SU in the playoffs in his career with a rest advantage.  The Broncos are 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference championship games, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home.  Denver is 28-11-3 ATS as home dogs in November or later over the last 50 years.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Jazz OVER 245.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace.  The Heat are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 233 or more combined points in all seven games.  They went for 248 with the Suns, 242 with the Thunder, 247 with the Warriors, 247 with the Kings and 237 with the Blazers despite only 42 combined points in the 4th.

The Jazz are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 3rd in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They have gone 28-17 OVER in all games this season, including 17-6 OVER at home where they are scoring 123.7 points per game and allowing 129.2 points per game.  That's an average of 252.9 points per game at home.  This has shootout written all over it tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls ML +100

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season thanks to a return to health.  They beat Brooklyn by 22 at home, the Clippers by 28 at home and upset the Timberwolves by 5 as 9.5-point road dogs.

Now the Bulls want revenge from a 115-101 road loss at Boston earlier this month.  And they should get it given the horrific spot for the Celtics tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a double-OT game last night against the Nets.

The Celtics had five players play at least 34 minutes last night including 46 minutes from Brown and 40 from Pritchard.  Don't be surprised if Brown or more sit in this one.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic PK

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They are coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 124-97 home loss to the Charlotte Hornets.  It was a bad spot for them in their first game back from overseas after playing a double-header with the Grizzlies over the pond.

Now the Magic are back home and settled in and will come back with a much better effort tonight.  They also get Jalen Suggs (15.0 PPG, 4.7 APG) back from injury finally, and he means everything to this team.  I would argue he is their most important player with what he does to get the offense going and defend on the perimeter.

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-118 home win over the Kings last night as 12.5-point favorites.  They are without Darius Garland (18.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Sam Merrill (13.8 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers).  Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Cavaliers last night and they could elect to rest one or multiple.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Utah +19.5

The Utah Utes want revenge from a 89-84 home loss to BYU as 14.5-point dogs on January 10th just two weeks ago.  Now the Utes are catching a whopping 19.5 points in the rematch, and this is simply too much for this rivalry.

BYU won't be all that motivated to beat Utah again, and at the very least not to beat them by 20-plus points, which is what it's going to take for them to cover this inflated spread.  I think it's a huge sandwich spot for the Cougars coming off a loss at Texas Tech and with a home game against unbeaten Arizona on deck.  

The Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 14 as 17.5-point dogs at Texas Tech, upset TCU as 4.5-point home dogs and only lost by 3 as 10.5-point dogs at Kansas State.  This team is flying under the radar and hasn't lost a game by more than 19 points all season.  Bet Utah Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -9.5

Arkansas is 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They beat Louisville 89-80 as 1.5-point home dogs and Tennessee 86-75 as 1.5-point home dogs before crushing Vanderbilt 93-68 as 1.5-point dogs in their last home games.  They are outscoring opponents by 24 points per game at home this season.

LSU is one of the worst teams in the SEC.  The Tigers are 1-5 in SEC play with their lone win coming at home over Missouri.  They lost by 18 at Florida, by 11 at Vanderbilt and by 3 at Texas A&M in their three SEC road games.  This has double-digit blowout written all over it for the Razorbacks tonight.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Denver OVER 162.5

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 16-2 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 16 of their last 18 games overall.  They rank 79th in adjusted offense and 363rd in adjusted defense.  This total of 162.5 is very short for a game involving Denver.

North Dakota is also a terrible defensive team.  The Fighting Hawks rank 317th in adjusted defense.  That's a big reason they are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 160 or more combined points in five of those six games.  This total of 162.5 is also short for a game involving the Fighting Hawks right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -2

The Colorado Buffaloes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country with the altitude and the travel that comes with it.  They are 9-3 SU at home this season, and they will be highly motivated for a win today at home after losing four straight against a brutal schedule coming in.

Two of Colorado's losses came at home to Texas Tech by 2 and Kansas by 6, and those are two of the best teams in the Big 12.  They also lost on the road to Cincinnati and WVU, two tough places to play.  They finally take a big step down in class here against UCF and will handle their business.

UCF is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in Big 12 road games this season with their lone win coming against one of the worst teams in the conference in Kansas State.  They also lost by 11 at Oklahoma State, another poor Big 12 team.  And they were blasted by 30 at Iowa State last time out.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Colorado beat UCF 76-63 as similar 1.5-point home favorites last season.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +10.5

Oklahoma State wants revenge from an 83-71 road loss at Iowa State as 19.5-point dogs on January 10th just two weeks ago today.  I expect them to at the very least stay within this inflated double-digit spread at home this time around.

Oklahoma State is 12-1 at home this season.  Few teams have dominated Iowa State like Oklahoma State has.  In fact, the Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Cyclones with one of those losses coming in OT.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois/Ball State UNDER 143.5

Ball State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cardinals rank 337th in adjusted tempo, 336th in average length of offensive possession and 305th in adjusted offense.  They are 11-6 UNDER in all games this season including 5-1 UNDER In home games.

Northern Illinois is a terrible offensive team as well.  The Huskies rank 323rd in adjusted offense this season.  They are 194th in average length of offensive possession, so they are in no hurry either.  They are 11-5 UNDER in all games this season, including 7-3 UNDER in road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +1

I love the spot for Texas Tech today.  The Red Raiders want revenge from a 69-65 road loss at Houston on January 6th earlier this month.  They already proved they could hang with the Cougars on the highway, and now they get them in Lubbock, one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Texas Tech is 10-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.2 points per game.  That includes a 84-71 win over BYU in their last home games, and BYU is one of the best teams in the country.

Houston has only played two true road games all season and they came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Baylor and Cincinnati.  This will be their toughest test of the season, and they should not be favored on the road here.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on St. Thomas/South Dakota OVER 161.5

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes rank 33rd in adjusted tempo and 327th in adjusted defense.  The Coyotes are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 176 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This total of 161.5 is very short for a game involving South Dakota.

St. Thomas also likes to play fast ranking 119th in adjusted tempo and 85th in average length of offensive possession.  The Tommies are a great offensive team ranking 10th in effective FG percentage.  They have scored 80 or more points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, and they have gone for 164 or more combined points in five of their last eight games overall.

This is a rematch from a 99-86 win by St. Thomas on January 7th for a whopping 185 combined points.  It will be another shootout in the rematch today and easily top this 161.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Houston/Texas Tech UNDER 141

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cougars rank 351st in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  They are allowing just 60.1 points per game on the season.  Texas Tech is in no hurry, either, ranking 182nd in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.

This will be a rematch from a 69-65 home win by Houston over Texas Tech on January 6th earlier this month with just 134 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Red Raiders and Cougars have combined for 141 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Xavier OVER 161.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-5 OVER in all games this season including 9-3 OVER at home.  The Musketeers rank 52nd in adjusted tempo, 33rd in average length of offensive possession and 91st in adjusted defense.

Xavier is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games overall.  They have gone for 187 combined points with Creighton, 164 with Butler and 181 with Providence in their last three games coming in.

St. John's also likes to play fast ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo, 32nd in average length of offensive possession and 29th in adjusted offense.  The Red Storm are 3-1 OVER in road games this season combining for 165 points with Villanova, 163 with Creighton and 178 with Georgetown.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Green Bay/Robert Morris OVER 141

Robert Morris is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Colonials are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall going for 145 or more combined points in 12 consecutive games.  That makes for a 12-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 141-point total.

Green Bay is 9-5 OVER in its last 14 games overall.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 144 points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.  This total of 141 is too short for a game involving these two teams.

That was on display already when Robert Morris beat Green Bay 80-78 in their first meeting this season for 158 combined points on December 4th.  It will be more of the same today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Horizon League Total DOMINATOR on Northern Kentucky/Wright State OVER 152

Wright State is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Raiders and their opponents have combined for at least 158 points in five consecutive games coming in.

Northern Kentucky ranks 69th in adjusted tempo and 34th in average length of offensive possession.  The Norse are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  They have gone for 152 or more combined points in 10 consecutive games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova +10.5

The UConn Huskies are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 18-1 this season, but they have just barely been getting bye in Big East play.  They have gone 6-1 in games decided by 5 points or less this season.

A lot of those have come recently as the Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Providence as 9.5-point favorites, only beat DePaul by 12 as 19.5-point home favorites, only beat Seton Hall by 5 as 6.5-point road favorites and beat Georgetown by 2 as 11.5-point road favorites.  Georgetown is winless in conference play this season.

Now they take a big step up in class against Villanova, one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Wildcats are 15-4 SU & 12-7 ATS this season.  Three of their four losses came by 7 points or fewer to BYU by 5, Creighton by 4 and St. John's by 7.  Their only blowout loss came to Michigan, which might be the best team in the country.  Asking UConn to win this game by 11-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +6

The Nebraska Cornhuskers aren't going to win every game this season.  The Huskers have been a great story as one of three remaining unbeaten teams at 19-0 this season.  But with that 19-0 record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Huskers.  They have a huge game on deck with Michigan on Tuesday that they could be looking ahead to.  They have two key players questionable in G Frager (12.2 PPG) and F Jarusevicius (7.0 PPG).  They already go with a very short rotation.

Minnesota has been no pushover this season, especially at home.  The Golden Gophers are 9-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points.  So they haven't lost at home by this kind of margin all season.  They upset Iowa and Indiana already at home this season.

Minnesota is highly motivated off four consecutive narrow losses by 1 to USC at home, by 3 to Wisconsin at home, by 10 at Illinois as 15.5-point dogs and by 8 at Ohio State in OT as 7.5-point dogs.  They can really help out their NCAA Tournament resume with an upset win over Nebraska here today.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* MAAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Niagara/Sacred Heart UNDER 142.5

Niagara is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play at the slowest tempo in the entire country ranking 365th in adjusted defense and 354th in average length of offensive possession.  They are also one of the worst offensive teams in the country ranking 343rd in adjusted offense.

Niagara is 6-2 UNDER in its last eight games overall going for 142 or fewer combined points in six of those eight games, including 126 or fewer in five of them.  One of those games was against today's opponent in Sacred Heart, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

Niagara beat Sacred Heart 64-61 in the first meeting on January 2nd for just 125 combined points.  And Niagara actually shot well in that game making 48.9% from the field and 41.7% from 3.  They aren't going to shoot that well again in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are the most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They are 27-17 SU & 30-12-2 ATS in all games.  This despite battling injuries for much of the season.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team moving forward.

The Suns have done this despite Jalen Green (14.3 PPG) playing in three games all season.  Well, Green is back healthy now and working his way back.  They have also been without Grayson Allen (16.3 PPG) for 17 games, and Booker, Brooks and Williams have all missed at least four games this season.

The Atlanta Hawks have been terrible since trading away Trae Young for CJ McCollum.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with blowout losses to the Lakers by 25, the Blazers by 16 and the Celtics by 26.

While McCollum is not fitting in well, a big reason for their struggles have been playing without both Kristaps Porzingis (17.1 PPG) and Zaccharie Risacher (11.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.9 SPG) during this stretch.  Both remain out tonight.  They are also a tired team not having multiple days off in a row since Christmas.  Phoenix comes in on two days' rest.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons -3.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They are rested and fully healthy with the exception of bench player Caris LeVert.  They will be playing just their 5th game in 13 days.  Cade Cunningham returns to the lineup tonight.  The Pistons have won four straight overall and are 17-4 at home this season.

But this is more of a fade of the Houston Rockets.  They are as tired as they can possibly be tonight and it's showing.  The Rockets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and the fatigure is catching up to them.

The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a OT game against the 76ers last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  Durant played 44 minutes, Thompson 42 minutes, Smith Jr. 38 minutes and Sengun 37 minutes last night.

The Rockets have already ruled out Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith due to injury management tonight.  Don't be surprised if one of those starters that played big minutes last night sits tonight as well.  This is one of the worst spots I've seen for any team this season, and I'm shocked the Rockets are getting this kind of respect as only 3.5-point road dogs against the best team in the East in the Pistons tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis/St. Bonaventure OVER 158

Saint Louis is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Billikens rank 27th in adjusted tempo, 7th in average length of offensive possession, 43rd in adjusted offense and 3rd in effective FG percentage offense.  They are scoring 91.2 points per game this season and have yet to play an OT game.

St. Bonaventure is 13-5 OVER in all games this season including 8-1 OVER in home games.  The Bonnies are scoring 82.4 points per game at home this season and have yet to play an OT game at home.  They rank 109th in adjusted offense but just 225th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 158 or more combined points in six of their last nine games overall, and 152 or more in eight of nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Blazers OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and are as healthy as they have been all season.  The Heat are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall going for 133 or more combined points in all six games.  They went for 248 with the Suns, 242 with the Thunder, 247 with the Warriors and 247 with the Kings.  This total of 236.5 is short for a game involving the Heat right now.

The Blazers are getting healthy and have upped the tempo when that's the case.  They still rank 8th in pace despite all the guys they have been missing this season.  Deni Avidja (26.2 PPG) and Shaedon Sharpe (21.8 PPG) are both healthy, and they recently got Jerami Grant (19.9 PPG) and Jrue Holiday (15.1 PPG) back in the lineup.  Both are questionable tonight but should be good to go after having the last three days off.

This will be a rematch from one of the biggest shootouts of the season when the Heat beat the Blazers 136-131 at home on November 8th for 267 combined points.  Avidja had 33 points and Sharpe 21 for the Blazers, while seven different players scored in double figures for the Heat.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State/CS-Fullerton OVER 159.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team due to the pace they play at.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They have gone for 159 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Long Beach State ranks 152nd in adjusted tempo and 256th in adjusted defense.  The Beach have really been an OVER team all season.  They are 13-4 OVER in their 17 lined games this season, and they have gone for at least 159 combined points in seven of their last 13 games, including 154 or more in nine of them.  Both teams will get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Big West Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UC-San Diego/UC-Davis OVER 150.5

UC-Davis profiles as an OVER team ranking 114th in adjusted tempo, 71st in average length of offensive possession, 141st in adjusted offense and 205th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies and their opponents have combined for at least 157 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 150.5 is very low for a game involving UC-Davis, which is scoring 80.3 points per game this season.  They haven't played an OT game yet, either.

UC-San Diego is an elite offensive team scoring 80.3 points per game as well.  They Tritons rank 83rd in adjusted offense and 47th in effective FG percentage.  They will gladly get in a shootout here with the Aggies.  They have gone for 151 or more combined points in 11 of 19 games this season with zero OT games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 16-1 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 15 of their last 17 games overall.  They rank 81st in adjusted offense and 361st in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving Denver.

North Dakota State is 140th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense.  The Bison will gladly get into a shootout with Denver.  They have scored at least 76 points in 16 of their 21 games this season.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Cal Poly/UCSB OVER 158

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 3rd in adjusted tempo, 6th in average length of offensive possession and 229th in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are scoring 80.6 points per game and allowing 85.3 points per game this season.  This total of 158 is very low for a game involving Cal Poly, which has gone for at least 158 combined points in 14 of 19 games this season.

USCB is an elite offensive team ranking 89th in adjusted offense and 52nd in effective FG percentage.  The Guachos are scoring 78.8 points per game.  But they are a terrible defensive team ranking 275th in adjusted defense and 294th in effective FG percentage defense.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Timberwolves OVER 239.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with both Josh Giddey and Coby White expected to go tonight.  And Tre Jones has come up big in their place doing many of the same things they can when one or both have been missing.

The Bulls are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall including 252 combined points with the Jazz and 248 with the Clippers.  They played four under teams during this stretch, too.  Now they face an OVER team here in the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They have played several absolute shootouts during this stretch combining for 249 points with the Jazz, 249 with the Spurs, 245 with the Bucks, 280 with the Cavs, 251 with the Cavs, 256 with the Wizards and 240 with the Heat.  It should be more of the same here against an OVER team in the Bulls.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Denver Nuggets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They are coming off a 114-97 road win at New York as 12.5-point dogs.  They have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight as they return home to face the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are a mess right now with Jimmy Butler's season-ending ACL injury suffered earlier this week, plus Jonathan Kuminga demanding a trade.  Their age is really starting to show.  The Warriors are coming off a 145-127 home loss to the Raptors as 3.5-point favorites in their 3rd game without Butler.

The Mavericks are 13-11 SU at home while the Warriors are 8-13 SU on the road.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 15th game in 26 days as they haven't had two days off in a row since December.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin/Penn State OVER 160.5

Wisconsin is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Badgers rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 63rd in adjusted defense.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with the lone under coming by a 0.5 point in a 80-72 win over slow-paced UCLA and a total of 152.5.  The Badgers went for 162 combined points with Purdue, 179 with Michigan and 183 with slow-paced Rutgers during this stretch.

Penn State ranks 79th in adjusted offense but just 203rd in adjusted defense playing as one of the worst defensive Power 4 teams in the country.  The Nittany Lions recently went for 169 combined points with Maryland and 178 with Purdue, allowing 96 points to the Terrapins and 93 points to the Boilermakers.  Wisconsin will hang a big number on them tonight to lead the way to use cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.