20* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones are right back in the thick of the Big 12 title race.  They opened 1-3 in conference play with three tough, close losses, but they have reeled off three straight wins since.

They have beaten both Kansas State and TCU by double-digits on the road, as well as then-No. 1 Oklahoma at home last Monday.  Now they can pull even with the Kansas Jayhawks with another home victory tonight, which I think they'll get.

Hilton Coliseum is easily one of the Top 5 toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones have won 16 of their last 19 home games versus ranked opponents.  They have won three of their last four meetings with the Jayhawks, including an 86-81 home victory last year, and a 70-66 win in the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas has looked extremely vulnerable of late.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with road losses to West Virginia (by 11) and Oklahoma State (by 19), as well as lackluster home wins over TCU (by 7) and Texas (by 9).  But because they are the Jayhawks, they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Kansas is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games coming in.  Iowa State is 25-4 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

I've been riding the New Orleans Pelicans with a ton of success of late.  I'll continue riding them tonight as the odds simply have not caught up to how well they are playing right now.  They should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight.

The Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 9-0 in their last nine games.  Four of their last five victories have come by 12 points or more, so they are dominating the opposition.

Houston is in a tough spot tonight as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  This is a tired team already, and making matters worse is the fact that the Rockets are expected to be without Dwight Howard.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.
 
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  There are a number of factors in favor of the Wizards, not the least of which is the fact that they'll be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep after losing their first three meetings with Boston this year.

The Wizards have been playing well of late.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, which includes blowout road wins over Chicago (by 14) and Indiana (by 14), as well as a blowout home win over Miami (by 19).  One of their two losses was a tough 117-119 home loss to these Celtics on January 16, so they'll be motivated to avenge that defeat just over a week ago.

Washington will be the much more rested team heading in.  Indeed, it has had a whopping four days off in between games, so it will be fresh and ready to go.  Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 7th game in 11 days, so it is running on fumes right now.  Look for the Wizards to win all of the hustle plays tonight.

Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.

20* Cardinals/Panthers NFC Championship No-Brainer on Arizona +3

Admittedly, I have been wrong on the Carolina Panthers all season. I have gone against them most weeks and have been burnt by doing so. But I still believe this team to be overvalued, and I do not believe they are the best team in the NFC. I have been calling the Cardinals the best team in the NFL for months, and I believe that will prove to be the case as they pull off the upset victory as 3-point road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game.

The numbers support my theory that the Cardinals are the best team in the NFL. They ranked 2nd in the league in yardage differential this season, outgaining teams by 86.6 yards per game. They only trailed Seattle (+86.8 yards/game) in that category after losing to the Seahawks in a meaningless Week 17 game while getting outgained by 122 yards. That was the only reason they didn’t finish No. 1 in that category.

Carolina also ranks a solid 5th in yardage differential, but it is only outgaining opponents by 44.0 yards per game on the season. While still solid, the fact of the matter is that the Panthers have been fortunate by scoring so many defensive touchdowns this season. They scored another defensive touchdown against the Seahawks, and they had another interception that set up an easy score. That proved to be the difference in a 31-24 win.

But the Panthers were outgained 295-403 by the Seahawks, or by 108 total yards. They have actually been outgained in three straight games now as they were outgained by 105 yards in a 13-20 loss to the Falcons in Week 16 and by 20 yards in a blowout win over Tampa Bay in Week 17 in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

The Cardinals are the perfect team to take advantage of Carolina’s biggest weakness, which is its secondary. The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (408.3 yards/game) and 2nd in passing offense (288.5 yards/game). The Panthers are without two of their top three cornerbacks in Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They were forced to sign Cortland Finnegan off the couch a few weeks ago.

Carolina’s passing defense has been exposed in its last three games. It gave up 296 passing yards to Atlanta, 309 to Tampa Bay and 325 to Seattle. That’s an average of 310.0 passing yards per game. Now the Panthers will be up against what I believe to be the best passing game in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in big passing plays as they take shots downfield more than anyone. Safety Kurt Coleman is also a liability in coverage, so look for Carson Palmer to target him a bunch. Palmer should have more time to throw the ball now that DE Jared Allen suffered an injury against Seattle and is doubtful to play this week as well.

The top-ranked passing attack in the NFL is the Saints at 310.6 yards per game. Well, the Saints put up 38 points on the Panthers and nearly pulled off the upset, but their league-worst defense couldn’t hold a late lead in a 41-38 loss. The Cardinals have the type of defense that will hold a lead when they get it. They ranked 5th in the NFL in total defense during the regular season at 321.7 yards per game allowed.

The Panthers get a lot of credit for their defense, but this is a stop unit that allows 326 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opposing offenses that only average 343 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Cardinals give up 323 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 361 yards per game and 5.7 per play. So the Panthers are only allowing 17 yards per game and 0.1 per play less than their opponents average, while the Cardinals are allowing 38 yards per game and 0.6 per play less than their opponents average. Everyone knows that the Cardinals have the better offense between these teams, but they also have the better defense when you look at the numbers.

Believe it or not, Arizona has actually played better on the road this season than at home. It is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in road games, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game, and outgaining them by 91.0 yards per game. Its only road loss came at Pittsburgh in a game that it actually outgained the Steelers 469-310, or by 159 yards, and one it never should have lost in the first place.

Arizona is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 games vs. good teams with a winning percentage of better than 75% on the season. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last three seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (ARIZONA) – after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this game with the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  I look for them to continue to roll tonight and to easily cover this 2-point spread.

Toronto has gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall with all six of the wins coming by 6 points or more, including five by 9 points or more.  The Clippers are playing well, too, but they are still without Blake Griffin.  Plus, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days, so it's a tough spot for them.

The Raptors have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Clippers.  They won by 11 points on the road, by 16 at home, and by 12 on the road, so these games haven't even been close.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 meetings with Los Angeles, including 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

20* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

This season just has a special feeling about it for the Broncos. Peyton Manning wants to go out a Super Bowl champ the same way that John Elway did before him, and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if that happens. The Broncos won their final two regular season games to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 3-point home underdogs here.

Manning returned against the Chargers in Week 17 and led four scoring drives in five possessions in the second half after replacing Brock Osweiler. He then played a much better game than his final numbers showed against the Steelers in a 23-16 win in the Divisional Round. He went 21 of 37 for 222 yards without a touchdown or an interception.  The Broncos uncharacteristically dropped a whopping seven passes from Manning, yet they still found a way to win.

The reason was the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL this season came up big once again. They held the high-powered Steelers to just 16 points for the game. The Broncos ranked 1st in total defense (283.1 yards/game), 1st in passing defense (199.6 yards/game), and 3rd in rushing defense (83.6 yards/game) during the regular season. This stop unit is the reason they are a serious contender to win the Super Bowl.

New England has no business being favored with the way it has closed out the season. It went 0-2 in its final two games in Weeks 16 and 17. It lost in overtime to the Jets in a game that was not as close as the final score showed considering the Jets outgained the Patriots by 144 yards. New England also lost 10-20 at Miami in the finale with home-field advantage in the AFC on the line. That game also wasn’t as close as the final score as the Dolphins outgained the Patriots by 242 total yards.

Against the Chiefs, the Patriots were outgained for a third straight game by 38 yards this time. They have now been outgained by an average of 143.3 yards per game in their last three contests. Their defense gave up 378 total yards to a very vanilla Chiefs’ offense. The Patriots suffered two key defensive injuries in that win over the Chiefs, too. Linebacker Jamie Collins had to leave the game with a back injury and is questionable to play this week. Fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo left with a shoulder injury and is questionable this week as well. If both or either can’t go, it would be a huge blow to the Patriots.

Perhaps the biggest reason I like the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs this week is the fact that the home team has dominated this series. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings since 2012. That includes a 30-24 (OT) win at home for the Broncos in their first meeting this season on November 29. That game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos outgained the Patriots 433-301 for the game, or by 132 total yards. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Denver.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Providence/Villanova FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Providence +13

This 13-point spread would indicate that there is a big gap between Providence and Villanova, but I'm not buying it.  I see a ton of value in backing the Friars as massive road underdogs to the Wildcats today.

Providence (16-3) is one of the better teams in the country.  It has been undervalued on the road all season, going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in all games played away from home.  I look for the Friars to travel well again in a crucial Big East game today.

Villanova (17-2) is clearly one of the better teams in the country as well.  In fact, the Wildcats might be the best team in the Big East, but Xavier and Providence are close behind.  But the Wildcats do get respect from oddsmakers, while the Friars and Musketeers do not.

Providence is 11-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Providence Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +17

This play is strictly a fade of St. Mary's in an awful spot.  The Gaels are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-67 home victory over Gonzaga in the come-from-behind variety on Thursday.

Now, the Gaels must get up for a 9-12 Portland team just two days later.  I look for the Gaels to come out very flat in this game, and as a result it will be a much closer contest throughout than it otherwise would be.

Portland has gone on the road and hung with some tough teams this season.  The Pilots only lost 74-85 as 19-point road underdogs to Gonzaga, so they have already proven they can play with the big boys.  They will prove it again here Saturday at St. Mary's.

Portland beat St. Mary's 69-52 in the WCC Tournament last year.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less as well.  The Pilots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above 60%.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Portland Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns UNDER 207

The books have set the bar way too high in this game tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which has been the case in recent meetings between these teams as well.

Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 165, 183 and 197 points.  That's an average of just 181.7 combined points per game, which is more than 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.  All three previous totals were set at 200-plus points as well.

Phoenix is having trouble scoring due to all of its injuries.  It has scored 97 or fewer points in five of its last six games, including just 90.0 points per game in its last three.  The Suns are an absolute mash unit right now, with the key being them missing their two starting guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  But P.J. Tucker, Mirza Teletovic and Markieff Morris are all questionable to play tonight as well.

Atlanta is 11-1 to the UNDER after two straight games where its opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls this season.  Phoenix is 14-4 UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

Despite being just 15-27 on the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are just four games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are doing their best to finish strong prior to the All-Star Break to close the gap.

Indeed, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 12 at Sacramento, by 2 against Charlotte, by 15 over Minnesota and by 16 over Detroit.  Its last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so it is very close to being 8-0 in its last eight games overall.

Now the Pelicans get to host a tired Milwaukee Bucks team that is coming off a 98-102 loss at Houston last night.  Now the Bucks will be playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Pelicans had Friday off following their blowout home win over the Pistons on Thursday.  The rest situation clearly favors the Pelicans.

New Orleans has had Milwaukee's number in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Maryland/Michigan State ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be more motivated for a victory tonight against Maryland than they have been at any other point in the season.  I'll gladly put my money on the Spartans when their backs are against the wall under Tom Izzo.

The Spartans have unfathomably lost three straight games coming in.  Two were 1-point losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, but they have actually lost two of the three at home.  That is unheard of for an Izzo-coached team, and you can bet he has been on his players.  Look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

Maryland has been extremely vulnerable in spite of its 17-2 record.  It needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home last time out.  It also only won by 3 at Wisconsin and lost by 3 at Michigan.  Those three results have all happened in its last four games, where it easily could have gone 1-3 instead of 3-1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who win 80% or more of their games on the season are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1997.

Michigan State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by 6 points or less.  This team has responded very well to close losses, and I look for that to be the case again Saturday night on a big stage against the Terrapins.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -6

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot Saturday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 upset of No. 3 Kansas at home on Tuesday.  They won't show up with the same kind of effort against Kansas State that they played with against the Jayhawks.

Kansas State is a much better team than its 1-5 record within the Big 12 would indicate.  It has lost to West Virginia by 4, Texas by 3, Oklahoma by 10 and Baylor by 7 with three of those losses coming on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in Big 12 play and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they have been vastly underrated.

Kansas State is 8-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.3 points per game.  Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games this year, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game.  That includes road losses at Baylor (by 17) and at West Virginia (by 17) to open Big 12 play.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Wildcats and Cowboys since 2012.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Cowboys.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cowboys are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on TCU +10

The Iowa State Cyclones are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off their first win over a #1 ranked team since 1957 with their 82-77 victory over Oklahoma on Monday.  That fact alone sets them up for a letdown here.

But this is also a lookahead spot for the Cyclones, who will face No. 3 Kansas on Monday.  They will be overlooking TCU here and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks.  As a result, they are going to struggle to win by double-digits, which is what oddsmakers are asking them to do here.

TCU has been competitive in Big 12 play despite its 1-5 record within the conference.  It has an 8-point home loss to West Virginia, a 1-point home win over Texas, a 7-point road loss at Kansas, and a 7-point home loss to Texas Tech. So, it has not lost at home in Big 12 play by more than 8 points in three games this season.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 15+ games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley +30

The Bradley Braves are simply catching too many points tonight against the Wichita State Shockers.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive 30-point underdogs in this contest.

Bradley could not possibly be more undervalued after its 3-17 start to the season.  But this team has been much more competitive in the last couple weeks.  It won 54-53 as 14-point road dogs at Loyola-Illinois on January 13, and in its last contest nearly upset Illinois State in a 52-55 loss as 11-point home dogs on January 20.

Wichita State could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the Shockers' lines higher than they should be as a result, which is evident by this ridiculous 30-point spread.

Wichita State beat Bradley 85-58 on the road in their first meeting this season, so the Shockers won't even show up tonight having already beaten the Braves by 27.  They can not show up and win, but they certainly can't cover this 30-point spread by not showing up with full effort.

Plays against favorites of 20 or more points (WICHITA ST) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Bradley Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are going to be highly motivated for a win after back-to-back road losses to Dallas (in OT) and Toronto (by 6).  They had won three straight prior to those two close losses.

The Chicago Bulls are not playing well at all right now.  They have gone 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, including a 31-point home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday.  They needed overtime to beat the 76ers for one of their two wins during this stretch, and they lost to the Hawks by 15 and Wizards by 14 as well.

The Bulls are just 8-9 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 105.2 points per game away from home.  Boston is 11-10 at home, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game and scoring 103.0 points per game at home.  The home team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.

Boston is 11-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois PK

I have backed Northern Illinois with a lot of success this season, but mostly only when they are at home.  This is one of the most improved teams in college basketball at 15-3 this season, and I believe they are the best team in the MAC, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as a pick 'em against Toledo.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.9 points per game.  It is 3-0 at home in conference play with wins over Ohio (by 11), Eastern Michigan (by 17) and Central Michigan (by 5), covering the spread in all three games as it was no more than a 3-point favorite in any of them.

Northern Illinois has had Toledo's number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings despite being an underdog in all four.  That includes a 71-66 win at Toledo on January 12 as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  There's no way the Huskies should be a pick 'em at home in the rematch.  They should be in the neighborhood of 6.5-point favorites themselves.

The Huskies are 18-3 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last three seasons.  NIU is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 25-8-4 ATS in their last 37 MAC games.  Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.

15* Rhode Island/George Washington A-10 ANNIHILATOR on George Washington -5

The George Washington Colonials are one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 this season.  They are 14-4 on the year and should be much heavier favorites over the Rhode Island Rams (11-7), who are just a middle-of-the-pack team in the conference.

George Washington has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball.  It is 10-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.2 points per game.  It has beaten the likes of Virginia (by 5), Seton Hall (by 8) and Duquesne (by 27) at home this season.  The Colonials are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games overall.

Rhode Island is 1-4 in true road games this season with losses to Nebraska, Old Dominion, St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure with three of those losses coming by 5 points or more.  The Rams' only road victory this season came at Brown (by 3) as 6.5-point favorites, which is far from impressive.

The home team has won three straight in this series.  The Colonials have won their last two home meetings with the Rams by 13 and 8 points.  Rhode Island is 2-13 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to George Washington.  The Colonials are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colonials. Take George Washington Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1

With an 18-23 record on the season, the Sacramento Kings would actually be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today.  They have put themselves in this position with some excellent play over the last few weeks.

Indeed, the Kings are 6-3 in their last nine games overall with a 1-point loss to Dallas and another loss to Golden State.  They are coming off a 3-0 road trip in which they beat the Jazz, Clippers and Lakers.  This is a team that is only going to continue to get better.

While the Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back after topping the Lakers 112-93 last night, they had three days off prior to that game, so they won't be tired.  The same cannot be said for the Hawks, who will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 104-98 win in Portland last night.  The difference is that the Hawks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while this is just the 2nd game in 5 days for Sacramento.

The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Even after their poor 14-27 start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are still well within reach of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are finally playing up to their potential of late and should continue to play well at home tonight against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so they have been very close to putting together a 7-game winning streak.  They opened their 7-game home stand with a 114-99 beat down of Minnesota, and now they'll be playing their second game on this home stand.

They get to face the Detroit Pistons, who are in an awful spot tonight.  Detroit will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a high-scoring affair with the Rockets last night.  The Pistons won that game 123-114, but they were fortunate that Dwight Howard had to leave the game with an injury in the first minute of the game.

The Pelicans have owned the Pistons, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Pelicans are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with the Pistons as well.  They essentially just have to win the game with this 2-point spread, so I thing we're getting them at a great value tonight give the situation for Detroit.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northeastern -3

The Northeastern Huskies are one of my favorite small school teams to follow.  They have beaten some major Division 1 programs through the years, and they have a strong team again this season with four returning starters and a ton of experience.

Northeastern is off to a 12-7 start this season that includes a 78-77 upset win at highly-ranked Miami as 16-point underdogs, as well as a 66-72 loss at NC State as 6.5-point dogs.  Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.

Hofstra is 12-6 this season against a much softer schedule.  Common opponents tell the story for me.  These teams have faced the same five teams this season.  Northeastern is 5-1 against those teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Hofstra is 3-2 against those five teams, outscoring them by only 4.2 points per game.

Northeastern simply owns Hofstra, going a perfect 8-0 SU since 2011 in the least eight meetings with its last seven victories all coming by 5 points or more.  The Huskies are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Pride.

Hofstra is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Northeastern Thursday.

15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Kentucky -2

The Kentucky Wildcats clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past.  But we're actually getting them at a great price tonight because of it, and we'll take advantage and back them as only 2-point road favorites over the Arkansas Razorbacks.

The Wildcats are 13-4 on the season.  They have bounced back with impressive wins every time they've lost this season, which is important because they are coming off a bad loss at Auburn.  Following a loss to UCLA, they beat Eastern Kentucky by 21.  Following a loss to Ohio State, they beat Louisville 75-73.  And following a loss to LSU, they beat Alabama 77-61 on the road.

Arkansas had to break in five new starters this season and is clearly down from its usual self as well.  The Razorbacks are just 9-8 on the season, losing to the likes of Akron, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest and Mercer this season.  But they are being overvalued here because they have won three of their last four coming in, but those victories were against Missouri, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wildcats are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. SEC opponents.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -2

The Wyoming Cowboys are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Nevada Wolf Pack tonight in Mountain West action.  I look for them to roll to victory at home behind one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

Wyoming comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has won three of of those games straight up with home wins over Air Force (by 12) as 5-point favorites and UNLV (by 2) as 5-point underdogs, as well as an impressive road win at New Mexico (by 2) as 10-point dogs.

The Cowboys are 7-2 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 68-71 loss at Nevada as 5.5-point dogs on January 2.  Nevada is just 2-6 in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Pacific and Air Force.  It has lost its last three road games by 29, 12 and 22 points.

Wyoming is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nevada.  The Cowboys are 15-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Wolf Pack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -4

The Washington Wizards are starting to get healthy and will be a dangerous team going forward.  John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Nene are the core of this team, and all four are healthy now.  Look for the Wizards to make a run after a frustrating, injury-plagued first half of the season.

The Wizards have won four of their last six coming in, which includes impressive double-digit road victories over the Magic (by 16), Bulls (by 14) and Pacers (by 14).  But they are back to being undervalued after two straight home losses to the Celtics and Blazers.

The Miami Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 79-91 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That means they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days, which is a very tough spot.  They are without their top two point guards in Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, which makes matters worse.

The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Washington is 14-6 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7

After getting off to a promising 19-13 start this season, the Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to .500 at 20-20.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.

They will have no problem getting back on track against the league's worst team in the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers are 5-38 on the season, but they actually come into this game overvalued due to going 4-0 ATS in their last four games.  The Magic have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, so they come in undervalued as only 7-point favorites.

The Magic have gone 26-6 in their last 32 meetings with the 76ers, including 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings.  Orlando won 105-97 on the road as 3-point favorites in their first and only meeting this season.

Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 2-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +12

The West Virginia Mountaineers are way overvalued tonight as 12-point favorites over the Texas Longhorns.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the Longhorns easily staying within this double-digit spread.

What I love about this play is that Texas head coach Shaka Smart knows how to beat the press as he ran it all those years at Virginia Commonwealth.  So he'll have his team prepared to beat the WVU press, which has been excellent this season.

Texas comes in playing very well.  It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a single point.  It has beaten the likes of Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch.  The Longhorns are 11-6 on the season with their six losses coming by 6, 11, 6, 5, 8 and 1 point.  So, they haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season, making for a 17-0 system backing them.

This is a very tough spot for the Mountaineers.  They are coming off back-to-back games against #3 Kansas and #1 Oklahoma, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following those two huge games against the top two teams int he conference.

Texas is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with West Virginia.  The Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bet Texas Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

Despite their poor 13-27 start, the New Orleans Pelicans are within striking distance of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They certainly are looking at this upcoming 7-game home stand as a chance to get right back in it.

The Pelicans have played the third-toughest schedule in the NBA up to this point.  They have played 23 road games compared to 17 home games.  Now that they are healthy, they are playing much betting.  Each of their last four losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have won two of their last three coming in.

Now they get to take on a Timberwolves team that is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  This is also a Minnesota team that they have dominated, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with wins by 12, 22, 8, 48 and 7 points, respectively.  The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

The Northern Illinois Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are 14-3 on the season while winning seven of their last eight games overall.  Their 7-game winning streak ended with a loss at Western Michigan on Saturday, so they'll be motivated to get back on track tonight.

That shouldn't be a problem against a Central Michigan outfit that continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Chippewas are just 9-8 on the season with losses to the likes of Weber State and Grand Canyon.  They have blowout losses to Western Kentucky (by 28), BYU (by 13), Eastern Michigan (by 19) and Buffalo (by 13) to boot.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.3 points per game.  Bowling Green is just 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  The Falcons are allowing 79.6 points per game on 48% shooting away from home this year.  The Huskies are averaging 81.9 points on 47.7% shooting at home.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings, which includes two blowout wins by NIU by 18 and 25 points over CMU.  CMU's two home wins came by a combined 5 points.  The Huskies are 17-3 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.  The Huskies are 24-8-4 ATS in their last 36 conference games.  Take Northern Illinois Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green +2

The Bowling Green Falcons are the best team in the MAC in my opinion.  They should not be home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets tonight, and we'll gladly take advantage of this tremendous value in a game they should win outright.

The Falcons come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won by 15 at Cleveland State, by 31 at home to Oakland City, by 11 at home to Miami Ohio, by 16 as 10-point road dogs at Ohio, and by 5 as 8.5-point road dogs at Eastern Michigan during this stretch.

The Rockets have opened just 2-2 in conference play with an 18-point road loss at Ball State as 2-point favorites and a 5-point home loss to Northern Illinois as 6.5-point favorites.  They are just 3-3 in true road games this season with losses to Loyola-Illinois, Detroit and Ball State.  Their only three road wins have come against Youngstown State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Miami Ohio.

Bowling Green is 28-14 ATS in all games over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two years.  Toledo is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 83-87 road loss to Oklahoma in their first meeting of the season back on January 2nd.  I look for them to have that revenge behind one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball at Hilton Coliseum tonight.

Getting the Cyclones as only 1.5-point home favorites is a gift from oddsmakers.  They are undervalued right now because they already have three losses in Big 12 play.  But all have been close as they lost by 4 at Oklahoma, in overtime at Texas, and by 5 at home to Baylor for a very rare home loss.

The Cyclones are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  Iowa State is 24-4 ATS in its last 28 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em.  Take Iowa State Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be more motivated for a victory Monday than they have been at any other point this season.  That's because they want revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they not only lost to in the NBA Finals, but also who they lost to on the road on Christmas Day in their first meeting this season.

But the Cavaliers have been a completely different team since they've gotten healthy.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the San Antonio Spurs by a final of 99-95.  That's not a bad loss at all considering the Spurs are 24-0 at home this season.

The Warriors have been leaking oil here of late and have proven to be very beatable.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have lost two of their last three games, both coming on the road to Denver (110-112) and Detroit (95-113).  Now they have to take on a well-rested Cavaliers team that has had two days off in between games.

The Cavs are 15-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game.  Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Cavs are 8-0 ATS after playing four consecutive road games over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Dallas +12

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 23-0 home record on the season.  While they may improve to 24-0, asking them to beat the Mavericks by 12-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much tonight.

The Mavericks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this year.  They are 23-18 SU & 24-17 ATS on the season.  Their starters will essentially be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after resting against the Thunder five days ago, so they will be well-rested and ready to go.

The Mavs have already proven they can hang with the Spurs on the road this season.  They only lost 83-88 as 10-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting this year.  The Spurs are in a letdown spot here, too, after beating the Cavaliers 99-95 on National TV last time out.

Dallas is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 43% shooting or less this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Mavs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in college basketball this season.  They are 13-3 on the year, and they had won five straight prior to a 69-80 road loss at Cincinnati as 10-point dogs last time out.  They'll be motivated to get back in the win column today.

I like their chances of doing just that at home against the UConn Huskies.  Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in lined home games this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game at home this year.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  We've seen Houston pull off the upset at home in each of its last two home meetings with UConn.  The Cougars won 70-68 in 2015 as 8.5-point home dogs and 75-71 in 2013 as 8.5-point home dogs.  History will repeat itself today.

The Huskies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.  UConn is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  UConn is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in over the last two years.  Roll with Houston Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +3

Seattle's performance against the Vikings can pretty much be thrown out the window.  That game was played at freezing temperatures of below zero, and the Seahawks couldn't do anything they wanted to like they normally would.  Russell Wilson's passes kept getting caught up in the wind, so instead of hitting wide open receivers deep down the field for touchdowns, those passes kept falling incomplete.

Look for Wilson to get back to playing at an MVP level this week in much more ideal conditions in Carolina with temperatures expected to be in the 50's with very little wind.  Wilson has now thrown 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions in his last eight games overall.  This is an offense that ranked 4th in the NFL at 378.6 yards per game during the regular season, and one that will hit its stride again this week.

The Seattle defense certainly played well enough against the Vikings to deserve the win last week.  They limited the Vikings to just 183 total yards.  After all, this is a Seattle defense that ranked 2nd in the NFL during the regular season in giving up just 291.8 yards per game, and 1st in scoring defense, currently giving up 16.8 points per game.

Want a stat that's going to blow your mind with this Seattle defense? How about the fact that the Seahawks have only allowed one offensive touchdown in their last six road games combined.  They have allowed 3, 12, 7, 6, 6, and 9 points in their last six road games for an average of only 7.2 points per game.  That's unheard of, and it's also something that I love knowing when backing the Seahawks this week.

There's no question that the Panthers had a great season, and I certainly underestimated them many times throughout the year.  But I also made my fair share betting against them, especially down the stretch when they went 2-3 ATS in their final five games.  I don't think this team is anywhere near as good as their record.  They played in the weak NFC South division, and they got to face both the AFC South and NFC East divisions, which are the two worst in the league.  The only playoff teams they had to face this year were the Texans, Seahawks, Packers and Redskins.

Sure, the Panthers beat the Seahawks earlier this season 27-23 on the road as 7-point underdogs.  But that win was very fluky as the Seahawks couldn't hold on to a 23-14 lead in the 4th quarter.  They allowed two touchdowns over the final 3:55 to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  There's no question that the Seahawks are going to be playing with revenge in mind now, which makes them even more dangerous.

The Seahawks clearly have the type of defense that can slow down MVP candidate Cam Newton and company.  That's precisely what they have done in the previous five meetings with the Panthers before this season.  Indeed, the Seahawks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings with the Panthers.  They held Carolina to 17, 9, 7, 12 and 14 points in the five wins, or an average of 11.8 points per game.

Wilson is also primed for a big day against a Carolina secondary that has turned into a weakness.  The Panthers are without two of their top cornerbacks in Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere.  They were in such dire straights that they had to sign washed-up CB Cortland Finnegan off his couch.  Both Finnegan and safety Kurt Coleman are massive liabilities in coverage, so look for Wilson to target them early and often, and to find a ton of success in doing so.

Seattle is 8-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season.  Plays on road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 68-35 (66%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* Packers/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7

After falling behind 11-0 to the Redskins, the Packers became a completely different team. They went to the hurry-up on offense, and it worked to perfection as they outscored the Redskins 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 victory. Look for them to continue to go to the hurry-up this week and to find success against the Cardinals with it, too.

Obviously, the Packers have to do something different after they were throttled 38-8 by the Cardinals three weeks ago. Nothing went right for them in that game as they gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with the Cardinals returning two fumbles for scores. While the Cardinals will be content to not change much of the game plan since they rolled in the first meeting, the Packers will be the ones making adjustments, which makes them dangerous.

We saw the same thing last week in the Seahawks/Vikings game. Seattle didn’t feel like it needed to change much after beating the Vikings 38-7 earlier this year. The Vikings made some changes and got healthy, which was the biggest thing for them. And they should have won that game, losing 10-9 only after Blair Walsh missed a last-second field goal.

There’s no question that we are getting great value here with the Packers as 7-point underdogs. That’s especially the case when you compare this line to the line in the first meeting. The Cardinals opened as only 4.5-point home favorites, but now they’ve opened as 7-point home favorites, and that basically only has to do with the first result. But it’s extremely difficult to beat a team of Green Bay’s caliber twice in three weeks, let alone by more than a touchdown. The Packers will have serious revenge in mind, which makes them dangerous.

The offensive line play was the reason for the Packers’ poor performance against the Cardinals three weeks ago. But they shored up that problem last week against the Redskins and played much better. The hurry-up also helped and kept the Redskins’ defensive off-balance, and their pass rush at bay. It will work in the same way this week as the Cardinals won’t be able to make defensive calls like they normally would when opposing offenses huddle up. That means there will be less blitzing, and a much more basic defense for the Cardinals in the rematch.

Outside of that blowout win over the Packers, the Cardinals haven’t been all that good at home here of late. They have only won one of their last six home games by more than 8 points. They lost 6-36 to Seattle, beat Green Bay 38-8, beat Minnesota 23-20, beat Cincinnati 34-31, beat Baltimore 26-18, and lost to St. Louis 22-24 in their last six home games. The Cardinals are 4-2 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while only outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.0 points per game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (more than 4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 66-29 (69.5%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games overall. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Packers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics are back on track after losing six of seven games during their worst stretch of the season.  But all six losses came by 9 points or less, so they simply didn't get it done in close games.  They have put together back-to-back blowout wins over Indiana (103-94) and Phoenix (117-103) since.

Yes, the Celtics will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, but this is one of my favorite teams to back on short rest because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They'll be up against a short-handed Wizards team tonight that is also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Boston has absolutely owned Washington in two meetings this season.  It won 118-98 back on November 6 and 111-78 on November 27.  I look for more of the same from the Celtics here even though they'll be on the road this time.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 28-11 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Celtics are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a win.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday.

15* Chiefs/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 42.5

This line for this game at -5 looks pretty spot on to me, but if anything I'd lean towards taking the Chiefs.  Instead, I think the UNDER 42.5 is the best play for this game.  Both defenses are top-notch and will make life difficult on the opposing offenses.  As a result, I think this game stays below the 42.5-point total.

The Chiefs have been stupid-good defensively during their 11-game winning streak.  In fact, they have allowed 22 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games now after shutting out the Texans 30-0.  They have allowed an average of just 11.5 points per game over their 11-game winning streak.  They allowed just 205 total yards to Oakland and 226 total yards to Houston in their last two contests.

The Patriots have also been a tremendous defensive team this season.  They give up only 19.7 points per game while ranking 9th in the NFL in total defense at 339.4 yards per game.  Their numbers are even better at home as they allow 17.7 points per game and 312 yards per game inside Gillette Stadium this season.

Kansas City has been winning in spite of its offense.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense at 331.2 yards per game on the season.  This offense suffered a big blow when star receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a high ankle sprain against Houston last week.  He was seen crying while being carted off the field in the 3rd quarter, and even though he's only listed as questionable, I have a hard time believing that he'll be effective at all even if he plays.  Maclin is the one guy the Chiefs couldn't afford to lose on offense because he's Alex Smith's security blanket.

The Patriots have been rather pedestrian down the stretch offensively.  They managed just 313 total yards against Houston, 284 total yards against the Jets, and 196 total yards against the Dolphins in their last three games.  They are expected to get Julian Edelman back, but who knows how effective he'll be.  The problem is the offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries.  Plus, injuries to Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount have forced the Patriots to bring Steven Jackson back out of retirement, which just shows how dire they are in the backfield.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 55, 37, 27 and 42 points.  The Chiefs have held the Patriots in check, limiting them to an average of 20.3 points and 328.5 total yards per game in the last four meetings.  That 55-point effort was fluky as the teams combined for 21 points in the fourth quarter in garbage time, including an INT return for a TD by the Chiefs.  It was a 41-14 game, so the intensity level was not really there in the second half.  This game should be close throughout, so the intensity level will be high for both defenses.

New England is 8-0 to the UNDER off two consecutive road losses since 1992.  Kansas City is 13-3 to the UNDER off six or more consecutive wins since 1992.  The Chiefs are 9-2 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 23-11-2 in Chiefs last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are way undervalued right now due to their 9-8 start to the season.  But they haven't been healthy all year, and they're finally starting to get healthy, so this team is going to be a good bet going forward.

The Illini returned their leading scorer in Kendrick Nunn last time out and showed what they were capable of.  They crushed Purdue 84-70 at home as 9.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 23.5 points.  Now I look for them to roll Nebraska at home, too.

Nebraska has been a great home team in recent years, but an awful road team.  That has proven to be the case again this season as the Huskers are 1-3 in true road games with blowout losses to Villanova (by 24), Creighton (by 16) and Iowa (by 11).  Their only win came at lowly Rutgers.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings since 2012.  Illinois is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nebraska during this stretch with wins by 12, 11, 7 and 5 points.

Nebraska is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after scoring 80-plus points in two consecutive games.  Illinois is 9-1 ATS in home games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Illini are 10-1 ATS after scoring 80-plus points over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +8.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points on the road to Eastern Michigan, a team I believe they are better than and that will show today.

The Falcons are 11-5 on the season, including 4-1 in their last five games overall.  They have beat Cleveland State on the road by 15, Oakland City by 31 at home, Miami Ohio by 11 at home, and Ohio by 16 on the road as 10-point dogs during this stretch.

Eastern Michigan is just 2-2 in its last four games with a 5-point home loss to lowly North Florida and a 17-point road loss to Northern Illinois.  The Eagles are simply getting too much respect for their 7-1 home record.  They don't have a good home win yet as their seven victories have come against Vermont, Siena Heights, Marygrove, Madonna, Rochester College, Detroit and Buffalo.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or less of their attempts over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1

The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get.  The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot.  They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game.  This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.

Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings.  Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks.  This game won't come close to reaching 210 combined points Friday.

These teams are used to playing in low-scoring, defensive battle when they get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 189, 183, 175 and 184 combined points.  That's an average of 182.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.

The UNDER is 20-7 in Hawks last 27 Friday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls.  As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.

The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go.  They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler.  Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight.  The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.

Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -4

The San Francisco Dons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Loyola-Marymount.  There's no question in my mind that they are by far the superior team, and as a result we are getting them at a great value as only 4-point favorites.

San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  It beat Pacific by 13 at home, Portland by 12 at home, and San Diego by 8 on the road.  Its two losses have come against arguably the two best teams in the WCC.  But it only lost by 8 at home to Gonzaga as 13.5-point dogs and by 10 on the road to BYU as 17-point dogs, proving that it can play with the two best teams in the conference.

Loyola-Marymount is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has lost by 27 at Portland, by 23 at Gonzaga, by 3 at Pepperdine, by 25 at home to St. Mary's, and by 2 at home to Pacific during this stretch.  It's clear that this team isn't anywhere near the level of the Dons by those results.

Common opponents really tell the story here for me.  These teams have six games played against common opponents already.  San Francisco is 4-2 against those teams with a dead even scoring differential.  Loyola-Marymount is 2-4 against those six teams and getting outscored by 12.3 points per game against them.

The Dons are 7-3 at home this season, while the Lions are 2-7 on the road.  San Francisco is 14-4 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Loyola-Marymount.  The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Dons are 55-23-1 ATS in their last 79 conference games.  The Lions are 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Dons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with San Francisco Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -4.5

The Utah Utes will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  They are 12-4 on the season, but they have opened 1-2 in conference play.  That's not the end of the world considering all three of their conference games have been on the road up to this point.

Now the Utes return to their home court where they are 8-0 on the season and outscoring teams by an average of 25.7 points per game.  This is a Utah team that has beaten Duke on a neutral court, so we know what it is capable of.  The Utes have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as they are 44-18-2 ATS in their last 62 home games.

Oregon has played well at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  Indeed, the Ducks have only played two true road games this season, and they lost both.  They lost 72-74 at Boise State as 2-point underdogs and 57-70 at Oregon State as 2-point favorites.  This team is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight given those road results.

Oregon is 4-12 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.   Utah is a perfect 9-0 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game.  The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These last three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Utes.  Take Utah Thursday.

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -6.5

The Michigan State Spartans (16-1) want revenge on the Iowa Hawkeyes, who handed them their only loss of the season in the Big Ten opener.  The Spartans lost that game on the road as 3-point underdogs, so they were expected to lose.  I took the Hawkeyes in that game and won, but now I'm jumping ship and backing the Spartans in this revenge spot.

The difference in this game will be the fact that the Spartans will be playing with their best player in Denzel Valentine.  He missed the first meeting with an injury, and his presence has been felt since he returned.  The Spartans just crushed Penn State 92-65 on the road last time out in his return.  He played just 23 minutes and scored 10 points, and after shaking off the rust, look for him to be even more effective in his second game back.

The Hawkeyes are simply overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start within the Big Ten.  They did pick up a big win at Purdue, but their other two wins have both come at home against Nebraska and Michigan State sans Valentine.  I just don't believe the Hawkeyes are going to be able to match the intensity level of the Spartans in this one, and I look for them to get blown out the building.

Michigan State is a perfect 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Iowa dating back to 1997.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4

The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season.  This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.

I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk.  Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games.  They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.

But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about.  Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.  The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.

Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -4.5

I believe the Boise State Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West this season.  They have gotten off to a 12-4 start and are well on their way to winning the conference title.  Head coach Leon Rice continues to do a tremendous job with this program.

The Broncos are a perfect 9-0 in their last nine games overall with road wins at Portland (81-71) and at Utah State (76-61).  They have also beaten Oregon, Colorado State and Fresno State at home during this stretch to highlight some of their victories.

Nevada (10-6) is no better than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Mountain West.  The Wolf Pack have really struggled of late against the best teams that they've played.  They've lost three of their last five games coming in with a 69-98 blowout to Wichita State, a 76-88 blowout to New Mexico, and a 63-85 blowout to Fresno State.  Their only wins have come against Wyoming (by 3) and Air Force.

Boise State crushed Nevada 78-46 in their only meeting last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Boise State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Mountain West foes.  The Wlf Pack are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Nevada is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Roll with Boise State Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits.  So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations.  Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5.  This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest.  The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +10

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson welcomed back four starters this year, and it has led to a 13-2 season up to this point.

The Cougars have really upped their place in AAC play.  They are 3-0 within the conference with a 73-67 win at South Florida, a 77-50 win at Temple as 6-point dogs, and a 63-45 home win over Tulane.  This team is simply rolling right now, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers.

Cincinnati is 12-5 on the season.  This team hasn't shown me enough to warrant being 10-point favorites over this solid Houston outfit in what I believe to be a very evenly-matched game.  The Bearcats have lost three of their last five games, including home losses to both Iowa State and Temple.  They also barely beat South Florida 54-51 on the road last time out as 15.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. AAC opponents.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -3.5

We are getting the Kansas State Wildcats at a tremendous price today as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  We'll take advantage and back the Wildcats, who are highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season after three close calls.

Indeed, the Wildcats are 0-3 within the conference with a 4-point home loss to WVU, a 3-point road loss at Texas, and a 10-point road loss at Oklahoma as 12.5-point dogs.  But the Wildcats are 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

The Red Raiders are getting a lot of love because they played both Iowa State and Kansas reasonably tough in their last two games.  But after an easy schedule to start the season, their true colors are starting to show, and they clearly aren't as good as their 11-3 record would indicate.  That will show again here tonight.

Kansas State has owned Texas Tech, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings with all 10 victories coming by 4 points or more.  The Wildcats are 6-0 in their last six home meetings with the Red Raiders with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  K-State is 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season.   The Red Raiders are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7

The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night.  They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.

The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road.  Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money.  The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor.  That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.

Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio.  It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs.  The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics Money Line -103

The Boston Celtics will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season.  They have last three straight and five of their last six coming in, including a blown 20-point lead in a 98-101 loss at Memphis on Sunday.  They are clearly going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The New York Knicks are playing very well, winners of four of their last five coming in.  But this team is starting to become overvalued, and this recent run has them content with how they are playing at the moment.  They aren't going to want this win as much as the Celtics, and as a result won't be able to match their intensity level.

The Celtics have owned the Knicks, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with wins by 9, 4, 21 and 11 points.  The road team has actually won four of the last six meetings, too, so home-court advantage has meant very little when these Atlantic Division rivals have gotten together.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after having lost 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in.  The Celtics are 13-1 ATS int heir last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more in two consecutive games coming in.  Boston is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after playing two consecutive road games coming in.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +10.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are simply catching too many points tonight against the Ohio Bobcats.  I'll gladly back them as double-digit underdogs in a game that they can win outright.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

The reason this line is so high is because Bowling Green (10-5) is coming off one of its worst performances of the season in a 67-79 home loss to Central Michigan.  The Falcons had won three straight games by double-digits prior to that defeat, so they aren't broken after one bad game.

Ohio (10-4) hasn't shown me anything to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.  It has a 5-point home win over Jackson State, a 7-point home win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an 11-point loss at Northern Illinois, and a 6-point home win over Ball State in four of its last five games coming in.

The Falcons owned the Bobcats in both meetings last season, winning 76-65 as 4-point road favorites and 69-54 as 7.5-point home favorites.  There's no way they should be double-digit dogs a year later in their first meeting of 2015.

The Falcons are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Bowling Green is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 MAC games.  The Bobcats are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Miami/Virginia ACC No-Brainer on Virginia -5

The Virginia Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Miami Hurricanes.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, and now they'll be looking to avoid their first 3-game skid in nearly five years.  I like their chances to get back on track at home tonight.

Virginia has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  It is 12-0 in its last 12 home games, including 7-0 this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game at home this year.

There's no question that Miami is a quality team with its 13-1 record, but there's also no denying that it has benefited from an easy schedule.  In fact, the Hurricanes have only played on true road game all season.  That resulted in a lackluster 77-72 win at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season.

Virginia clearly matches up well with Miami.  It won 89-80 on the road as 6.5-point favorites last year, and 65-40 at home as 10.5-point favorites in 2014.  The Cavaliers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Bet Virginia Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons.  They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS.  They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season.  They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.

The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well.  I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Clemson +7

Deshaun Watson is exactly the type of quarterback that Alabama has struggled against through the years. He can beat you with his arms and his legs, and I look for him to make enough plays to keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters. The Tigers weren’t getting any respect as underdogs against Oklahoma when they dominated in a 37-17 victory, and they’re certainly not getting respect as touchdown dogs here in the title game.

Watson is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,032 yards and 12 scores. He probably feels like he got snubbed out of the Heisman Trophy, which went to Alabama’s Derrick Henry. So not only will the Tigers be motivated as underdogs, they’ll also get an inspired effort from Watson here as he looks to make a statement.

While the edge on defense goes to the Crimson Tide in this one, there’s no denying that the edge on offense clearly belongs to the Tigers. They are putting up 38.4 points and 511.7 yards per game against teams that only give up 25.3 points and 379 yards per game. Alabama averages 34.4 points and 423.8 yards per game against teams that give up 24.9 points and 365 yards per game.

But it’s not like the Tigers are slouches on defense. They are allowing 20.0 points and 302.0 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 398 yards per game. They also give up just 4.7 per play against teams that average 6.0 per play. Stopping Henry and Alabama's rushing attack will be key for the Tigers, and they are equipped to do it. They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 190 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Alabama’s defense has put up great numbers this season, but it has faced some awful offenses here down the stretch. Its last four games have come against Michigan State, Florida, Auburn and Charleston Southern. The Crimson Tide will be taking a big step up in competition here as Clemson has one of the best offenses in the land. In fact, this will be the best offense that Alabama has seen all season. Ole Miss was the next-best offense it has faced, and it gave up 43 points in a loss to the Rebels.

Clemson is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5

A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games.  As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards.  I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.

The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out.  The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games.  But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.

The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5.  They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set.  They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time.  They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.

Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively.  That's an average of 118.0 points per game.  I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni.  They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season.  The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.

The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory.  Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.

Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* Packers/Redskins NFC No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay -1

I just simply trust the Green Bay Packers more than the Washington Redskins in a big game like this. They have all kinds of playoff experience, while the Redskins haven’t made the postseason since Robert Griffin III’s rookie season. The Redskins are 0-3 in their last three playoff games and haven’t won a playoff game since 2005. I don’t believe that streak is going to end this weekend.

In fact, I believe the Redskins are the worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs. They won a very weak NFC East division to get here, and the numbers support my claim. The Redskins rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 26.8 yards per game. That is easily the worst ranking in this all-important stat of all 12 playoff teams.

Yes, the Redskins won each of their final four games this season, but they were fortunate to do so. They were outgained in four of their final five games. Plus, those five games came against the Cowboys (twice), Eagles, Bills and Bears. None of those five teams made the playoffs this year.

Washington also benefited from such an easy schedule this season. Indeed, 14 of its 16 games were against non-playoff teams. It was crushed in its two games against playoff teams, losing 16-44 at Carolina and 10-27 at New England. Conversely, Green Bay played seven games against playoff teams this season. It went 3-4 against them, but it certainly played a tougher schedule to get here, and that’s why its 10-6 record is much more impressive than Washington’s 9-7 mark.

The Redskins have been extremely fortunate this season in creating turnovers by their defense. In fact, they have recovered the most fumbles of any team in the league. Well, the Packers aren’t a team that turns the ball over often. They have committed only 17 turnovers in 16 games this season, so they aren’t going to beat themselves.

The Packers should have no problem getting their offense going this week against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in allowing 380.6 yards per game. This is a defense that gives up a ridiculous 6.3 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.7 per play. The Packers are clearly superior on that side of the ball as they give up 346.7 yards per game this season. I also like the fact that the Packers are getting healthy along the offensive line and should protect Aaron Rodgers much better this week.

The Packers have owned the Redskins, going 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Their only loss came in overtime on the road back in 2010. The Packers have outscored the Redskins 163-73 in those six meetings, or by an average of 15.0 points per game. If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for it to continue in this NFC Wild Card showdown Sunday.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Green Bay is 9-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons. Washington is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five playoff road games.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Vikings NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Seattle -4.5

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing like the best team in the NFL here down the stretch. They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. Their only loss came via fluke at home to the Rams as they outgained St. Louis by 107 yards in that game.

In fact, they have outgained six of their last seven opponents by at least 107 yards, including 122 against Arizona, 193 against Cleveland, 122 against Baltimore, 308 against Minnesota and 202 against San Francisco. The Seahawks now rank 1st in the NFL in the all-important yardage differential stat, outgaining teams by an average of 86.8 yards per game on the season.

To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank just 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 23.0 yards per game. Only the Redskins have been worse among playoff teams in that department. As a result, I believe the Vikings are one of the most overrated teams in the playoffs. They are awful on offense and just above-average on defense. They were fortunate to beat the Packers in the finale as they were outgained 242-350, or by 108 total yards.

The Vikings rank just 29th in the NFL in total offense at 321.2 yards per game. Adrian Peterson is nursing a back injury that limited him to 67 yards on 19 carries against the Packers.  To compare, the Seahawks rank 4th in total offense at 378.6 yards per game, and Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP level for weeks. He has a ridiculous 24-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his last seven games. He has also rushed for 553 yards and a score on the season.

I just don’t believe the Vikings are going to be able to put up enough points to keep up with Wilson and the Seahawks. That’s because Seattle is just as good on the other side of the football. It ranks 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 291.8 yards per game. It has limited its last five opponents to 6, 23, 13, 6 and 7 points, respectively. That's an average of 11.0 points per game.  This is back to being the dominant defense that we’ve become accustomed to in recent years.

The Seahawks simply own the Vikings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with wins by 31, 21 and 10 points, respectively. That includes the 38-7 beat down the Seahawks put on the Vikings on the road back on December 6. This was arguably the most dominant performance of one team over another this entire season. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings 433-125 for the game, or by a ridiculous 308 total yards.

Seattle is 8-0 ATS after having won four out of its last five games over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. Seattle is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 versus good rushing teams who average 130 or more rushing yards per game in the second half of the season. Plays on favorites after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +7.5

The Detroit Titans have been awful on the road, but they've been a juggernaut at home this season.  They've gone a perfect 9-0 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 15.2 points per game.  I love the proposition of getting them as nice-sized home underdogs here to Valpo.

Detroit is certainly one of the best offensive teams in the country.  It is scoring 85.4 points per game overall, including 91.3 points per game on 49.6% shooting at home.  This team is going to be able to score on Valpo today.

All three of Valpo's losses this season have come on the road.  They lost 85-81 at Belmont, 67-73 at Oregon and 69-66 at Ball State, and they only beat Oregon State by 6 and Indiana State by 6 on the road, so they are vulnerable away from home.  We saw that last year as well as Detroit beat Valpo 63-60 at home as 4.5-point dogs.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Titans are 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Titans.  Roll with Detroit Sunday.

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +18

This is my favorite play in the WCC for the entire 2015-16 season.  This is a massive lookahead spot for BYU, which faces Gonzaga in its next game.  It will just be going through the motions to try and beat San Francisco today and not giving the kind of effort it's going to take to put away the Dones by 18-plus points.

San Francisco comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall with a 13-point win over Pacific, a 12-point win over Portland, and an 8-point road win at San Diego.  Its only loss came at home to Gonzaga by 8 points as 13.5-point dogs, so it has already proven it can play with the best team in this conference.

One thing that really stood out to me was how tough San Francisco has played BYU on the road in recent years.  The Dons are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to BYU.  They lost by 4 as 13-point road dogs last year, lost by 5 as 11.5-point dogs two years ago, and won by 12 outright as 14.5-point dogs three years ago.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dons are 98-58 ATS in their last 156 conference road games.  The Dons are 54-23-1 ATS in their last 78 WCC games overall.  San Francisco is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games.  The Cougars are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -2.5

It’s no surprise that all four Wild Card teams are actually favored despite playing on the road. That’s because the Wild Card teams are simply better than the division winners, and that is the case in this game. I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team here, and I trust them to go on the road with all of their playoff experience and knock off the Bengals by at least a field goal to cover this 2.5-point spread.

After all, the Steelers have owned the Bengals in recent meetings. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bengals. Their only loss came 16-10 back on November 1 of this season, which was the first game back from injury for Ben Roethlisberger. He was clearly rusty as he gave the game away by throwing three interceptions. But the Steelers still should have won that game as they outgained the Bengals 356-296.  The would bounce back with a 33-20 win at Cincinnati on the road on December 13 only after the Bengals scored a garbage TD in the closing seconds.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL. It ranks 3rd in the league in total offense at 395.4 yards per game, including 3rd in passing offense at 287.7 yards per game. Both numbers would have been even better had Roethlisberger not missed a four full games and parts of two others due to injury. They are putting up 26.4 points per game and only giving up 19.9 points per game on the season.

The Bengals have not played very well since Andy Dalton went out with an injury. Yes, they’ve gone 2-1 in their three games without him to close out the season, but they were very fortunate they didn’t go 0-3. They were outgained by 76 yards in their 24-14 win at San Francisco, by 96 yards in their 17-20 loss at Denver, and by 49 yards in their 24-16 home win over Baltimore. The Bengals are only averaging 21.7 points, 276.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in their last three games without Dalton, who isn’t expected to be ready to play Saturday.  This offense can't keep up with the Steelers in its current state.

Cincinnati has a playoff curse that it cannot seem to shake. It is 0-6 in its last six playoff games with its last win coming all the way back in 1990. Sure, the Bengals want to put an end to this drought, but every year the pressure gets bigger, and they just don’t handle it well. The offense has been the culprit as the Bengals have scored 10, 10, 13, 10, 14 and 17 points in the six losses. With or without Dalton, I look for this offense to struggle mightily again.

The Bengals have also had plenty of leaks defensively this season. While they are stout against the run, they are extremely vulnerable against the pass, which plays right into the Steelers’ hands. They give up 64.2 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 301, 251, 270, 263, 277 and 282 passing yards in six of their last seven games coming in. Roethlisberger should have a field day Saturday.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games vs. teams who average 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64 percent or more of their passes. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in January. The Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in January, including 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games.  Bet the Steelers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons.  This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.

Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season.  They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home.  They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.

Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall.  That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat.  The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result.  They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.

The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +8.5

The Miami Hurricanes are way overvalued right now due to their 12-1 start to the season.  They have covered five of their last six against the spread, so the betting public is all over them.  But they have certainly benefited from playing an easy schedule here of late as their last six opponents have been Charlotte, Florida, College of Charleston, LaSalle, Princeton and Syracuse with none of those being true road games.  It's simply time to fade the Hurricanes.

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory in this rivalry game.  They have opened 0-2 in ACC play with a 75-84 loss at Clemson and a 90-106 home loss to North Carolina in a game that was close until the final 10 minutes.  They will be playing with a little extra edge here today to try and get their first ACC victory.  This is still a quality team at 10-4 and one that will be a force in the ACC the rest of the way.

But what really stands out to me is the closely-contested nature of this series.  Indeed, each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less.  The Seminoles haven't lost to the Hurricanes by more than 6 points in any of the last five meetings.  So given the close nature of this series, getting 8.5 points is a ton of value.  Plus, the Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  These five trends combine for a 40-1 system backing the Seminoles.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

The Oklahoma Sooners are in a massive hangover spot Saturday.  They are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Kansas on Monday, and it's going to be hard for them to come back and give the kind of effort they played with in that game to try and pull off the upset, only to come up short.

Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Bruce Weber has this team playing some great basketball this year.  The Wildcats are 10-4 with all four of their losses coming by 10 points or less to some very good teams.  They lost by 10 to North Carolina on a neutral court, by 10 to Texas A&M on the road, by 4 at home to West Virginia, and by 3 at Texas.

But what really stands out is that Kansas State has had Oklahoma's number in recent years.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Sooners despite being underdogs in three of those.  Thy won both meetings last year with a 66-63 road win as 12-point dogs, and a 59-56 home win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  K-State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of its games.  The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  K-State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

The Vanderbilt Commodores are highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they travel to face the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks.  The Commodores have opened 0-2 in SEC play with an 8-point home loss to LSU and an overtime road loss to Arkansas.  They want to right the ship in a hurry.

I like their chances to get in the win column in SEC play Saturday because I still believe this is one of the best teams in the conference.  But they have lost a lot of close games here of late as five of their six losses have come by 8 points or less.

A big reason has been because they've been without one of their best players in Luke Kornet (9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for five games.  But Kornet returned against Arkansas last game and had 11 points and 8 rebounds.  His presence will be huge against South Carolina, and going forward.

South Carolina is certainly a feel-good story up to this point with its 14-0 start, but it has come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Gamecocks have only had to play two true road games this season and they haven't faced a ranked opponent all year.  They will be exposed for what they are, which is just a middle-of-the-pack SEC team,   against the best team they've faced in Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Commodores are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green -1

The Bowling Green Falcons are arguably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 10-4 start this year, which includes a 6-1 home record.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.

Central Michigan is just 7-7 and has had some very suspect performances this season.  It has losses to Weber State (by 3), Western Kentucky (by 28), Grand Canyon (by 3) and Eastern Michigan (by 19).  It also has ugly home wins over McNeese State (by 1) and Texas Southern (by 8).

But the most important stat going against the Chippewas is the fact that they are 0-6 in all road games this season.  Their defense has been horrible away from home as they are giving up 82.7 points per game and 48.7% shooting to opponents.  They just gave up 66% shooting in their 99-80 home loss to Eastern Michigan on Wednesday, so defense clearly is not a priority for them.  The Falcons have only allowed 55.0 points per game during their 3-game winning streak coming in.

Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 26-13 ATS in their alst 29 games overall.  The Chippewas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5

This is a massive letdown spot for the LSU Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 85-67 home win on National TV against #9 Kentucky on Tuesday.  There's no question they have been getting patted on the back over the last few days leading up to this game, and it will go to their heads, and they will not show up with the same intensity against Florida Saturday.

At the same time, this is a great spot to back the Gators.  They are coming off a bad 69-83 road loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, so they'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column when they return home, where they were last seen crushing Georgia 77-63 as 8-point favorites to open SEC play.

The Gators are 6-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by 21.5 points per game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in all road games this season, giving up 84.2 points per game away from home.  Florida has won four of its last five home meetings with LSU with all four victories coming by 12 points or more.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Johnny Jones is 4-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of LSU.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +5

The Tennessee Vols are a much better team than their 8-6 record would indicate.  Their six losses have all come on the road to Georgia Tech (by 2), George Washington (by 3), Nebraska (by 11), Butler (by 8), Gonzaga (by 7) and Auburn (by 6).

So, they've shown that they can play with the likes of George Washington, Butler and Gonzaga, which says all that you need to know about this team.  The Vols really showed what they were capable of when they beat Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday.  They improved to 8-0 at home this season with that huge victory.

Texas A&M is overrated due to playing a home-heavy schedule.  It has played just two true road games this season.  One was a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites, and the other was a narrow 61-60 road win at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites Wednesday night.  The Aggies shouldn't be favored on the road against the Vols today based off those two performances, especially considering the Vols haven't lost at home this year.

One of my favorite trends that I always look for with Tennessee is that it is 32-9 ATS in its last 41 games as a home underdog or pick 'em.  Better yet, the Vols are 27-6 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them.  The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.

The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.

Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196

With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be.  They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.

Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves.  The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points.  They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road.  Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are in a world of hurt right now.  They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.

The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season.  They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home.  The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +13.5

The Michigan State Spartans have looked pedestrian without their best player in Denzel Valentine, who will miss this game as well.  They needed overtime to beat Oakland on a neutral court, lost by 13 at Iowa, and had a hard-fought 69-61 win over a sub-.500 Minnesota team in their last three games without him.

Illinois has proven that it is not intimidated by facing the Spartans at the Breslin Center.  In fact, the Fighting Illini have won each of their last two trips to Michigan State.  They won 59-54 as 9.5-point road underdogs last season, and 53-46 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2014.

Illinois had won five straight games before opening 0-2 in Big Ten play.  But they lost by 10 to Michigan and by 2 at Ohio State, so they have been competitive to open conference play.  Now the Fighting Illini will be extra motivated to get that first Big Ten victory.  While they may not get it, it's certainly reasonable to think that they'll stay within 13 points of the Spartans tonight.

The Fighting Illini are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Michigan State.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Illinois Thursday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home.  It's  now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.

Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home.  It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average.  In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3).  So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy State +11.5

The Georgia State Panthers made some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year due to the heroics of RJ Hunter, who is now gone.  They are now overvalued after that recognition as they only brought back one starter from that team.

Georgia State has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, but it has been far from impressive.  Its best wins have come at home against Old Dominion (by 4) and Middle Tennessee (by 2).  This team is simply laying too many points here tonight.

Troy is only 5-8, but I have been impressed with how well this team has played on the road this season.  It is 1-2 in true road games with a 12-point win over North Texas, a 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 15.5-point underdogs, and a 3-point loss at Ole Miss as 3-point dogs.  To compare, Georgia State lost by 9 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point dogs earlier this year.  Seven of the Trojans' eight losses this season have come by 9 points or less.

The Trojans have played the Panthers very tough on the road in recent meetings.  They lost 72-77 as 19.5-point rod dogs last year and 72-81 as 16-point dogs in 2014.  The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Trojans are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Troy is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off two consecutive home losses.  Take Troy Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +20

San Jose State was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year.  But this is now one of the most improved teams in the land in 2015-16.  The Spartans are 5-9 and fully capable of staying within 20 points of the San Diego State Aztecs, who haven't been as good as in year's past.

All nine of San Jose State's losses this season have come by 20 points or fewer.  That includes a 7-point loss at Air Force as 9-point road dogs and an 18-point loss at Marquette as 21.5-point dogs.  Considering the Spartans have played 14 games this season and haven't lost by more than 20 once, that's a 14-0 system backing them based on this 20-point spread.

San Diego State likely won't be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  It is just 9-6 on the year with some ugly losses and wins this year.  It lost to West Virginia by 22 on a neutral court, and it was also upset at home by both Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and Grand Canyon (by 7) in a game that didn't even have a line.

SDSU is 5-15 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Aztecs are 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7

Mississippi State is a team that I've had my eye on all season.  This is a squad that returned four starters from last year under the guidance of first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours back in his prime.

As I expected, the Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they've gone 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games.  They've been an especially profitable bet at home by going 5-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off three straight blowout wins over Tulane (by 10), Northern Colorado (by 24) and NC Central (by 23) and are chomping at the bit to play their first SEC game in front of their home crowd tonight.

Texas A&M is a highly ranked team this season and it is overvalued as a result of its 11-2 start.  While the Aggies have played some tough teams, they have actually only played one true road game all season.  That ended in a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202

This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records.  Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.

That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways.  The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively.  Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.

The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points.  Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5

The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen.  The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.

Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7).  Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.

UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall.  This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit.  UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.

Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5

This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.

While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home.  In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.

With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season.  Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game.  Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.

Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game.  EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least.  In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season.  This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.

The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.  The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers.  I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.

Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play.  They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.

The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).

Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2

The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.

The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season.  They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games.  They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.

The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason.  Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him.  They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.

St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season.  The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks.  Take St. Joe's Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors.  The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.

Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out.  Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors.  Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.

These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points.  We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.

Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.

The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off.  They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.

Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami.  It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points.  The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.

Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.   Take the Pacers Monday.

15* UNC/FSU ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +3

I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here tonight in this game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.  I'll gladly back the home underdog Seminoles, who are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Florida State's three losses this season have all come by single-digits and all on the road, including an overtime loss at Iowa.  This is a team that won 73-71 at Florida as 5-point dogs in its ACC opener.  The Seminoles are 5-0 at home this season, winning by 23.6 points per game.

North Carolina is more vulnerable than most expected it would be coming into the season.  The Tar Heels are 0-2 in true road games this season with losses at Northern Iowa and at Texas, which are two teams that aren't as good as Florida State.  They weren't impressive in their two ACC home games this season with an 11-point win over Clemson as 15.5-point favorites and an 8-point win over GA Tech as 14.5-point favorites, either.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being called for 5-plus more fouls than their opponents in two straight games.  Roll with Florida State Monday.

15* Vikings/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 46

I wish I would have got this UNDER when it opened at 48, but I still like it a lot at 46.  It has been bet down for good reason.  This game between the Vikings and Packers will be played at a high intensity level with first place on the line in the NFC North.  I believe that favors the defenses.

The oddsmakers made a mistake in setting this total too high because the Vikings scored 49 points last week against an awful Giants defense, while the Packers gave up 38 to Arizona.  But the Vikings got a defensive touchdown and only had 368 yards of offense, so there's no way they should have scored 49.  The Packers did give up 381 yards to the Cardinals, but they held them 39 yards below their season average.  The Cardinals also had two defensive touchdowns to pad their number.  So the Packers' defense only essentially gave up 24 points.

One thing that is certain heading into this game is that both offenses are horrible.  The Vikings rank 26th in the NFL in total offense at 326.5 yards per game.  The Packers are 24th at 333.5 yards per game.  In their last two games, the Packers were held to just 293 total yards against the Raiders and 178 total yards against the Cardinals.

The biggest reason for their struggles on offense is an O-Line that is banged up right now as both tackles in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are likely to miss this game.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game long against the Cardinals, and he finished just 16-of-29 for 77 yards in the loss.

Things won't get any easier for Rodgers against a Minnesota defense that is dominant and just returned three key players in the middle of its defense in S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and DT Linval Joseph.  The Vikings are only yielding 19.3 points per game this season while ranking 14th in total defense at 343.8 yards per game.

The strength of the Packers this season, believe it or not, has been their defense.  They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season, including 16.7 per game at home.  They had held six straight opponents to 23 points or fewer and an average of 16.3 points per game prior to giving up 38 to the Cardinals.  Again, only 24 of those were on the defense.

The Packers beat the Vikings 30-13 on the road in their first meeting this season for 43 combined points.  That 30 points was pretty fluky as well as the Packers did it on only 320 yards of total offense.  The Vikings managed just 13 points and 342 total yards in that game.  I believe a similar combined point total of 43 or less is likely in the rematch, especially in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.

Minnesota is 6-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 9-2 UNDER vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Vikings last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 11-3 in all Vikings road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most underrated team in the NFL heading into Week 17.  They are catching way too many points against the Carolina Panthers, who have been overvalued here down the stretch due to their 14-1 record.  They are once again overvalued here as double-digit favorites over the Bucs.

The reason I say the Bucs are underrated is because they rank 7th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 36.5 points per game.  Only the Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Jets, Patriots and Panthers (6th, +48.3 YPG) have been better, so they are in some elite company with this yardage differential stat.

The Buccaneers are also an elite team from a yards per play standpoint, which is one of the most important stats in the NFL.  They average 6.1 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play.  The Panthers are good but not as good in this department.  They average 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They outgain teams by 0.6 yards per play.

If the Bucs don't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone, and they will certainly be gunning for their rivals in the Panthers Sunday.  They want nothing more than to knock the Panthers from earning home-field advantage in the NFC, so they'll certainly be showing up for this one.

That's especially the case since they want revenge from a 23-37 home loss to the Panthers in their first meeting this year.  That final score couldn't have been any more misleading.  The Bucs outgained the Panthers 411-244 for the game, or by 167 total yards.  But they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference.  It's going to take more turnovers from the Bucs for the Panthers to win this game by double-digits, and you can never bank on turnovers when betting games.

Back to my point about the Panthers being overvalued, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They won by 3 at New Orleans as 5.5-point favorites on a last-minute TD, they won by 3 at the Giants as 5-point favorites on a last-second FG, and they lost to to the Falcons by 7 on the road last week despite being 7-point favorites.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game in the second half of the season.  Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (CAROLINA) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Panthers UNDER 47

I'm taking the UNDER in this game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.  This is a division game, which adds intensity.  It's also an important game for the Panthers as they wants to secure home-field advantage in the NFC.  With the pressure now mounting after a loss to the Falcons last week, I look for a conservative game plan from these Panthers just to try and get a win any way they can.

But what really makes me love this UNDER is the fact that both teams have great defenses.  The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 318.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play against teams that average 358 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The Buccaneers are 9th in total defense, allowing 338.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

There are a couple reasons the oddsmakers have set this total too high, which has provided value with the UNDER.  The first is that the Panthers have uncharacteristically scored a lot of points lately, but make no mistake, this is no offensive juggernaut.  The Panthers only average 5.7 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They have thrived against poor defenses like the Giants, Saints and Falcons in recent weeks.

The second reason the books have set this number higher than it should be is because the Panthers won the first meeting 37-23 over the Bucs for 60 combined points.  But the Panthers managed 37 points despite gaining just 244 total yards.  That's nearly impossible.  They took advantage of five Buccaneers' turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  Take away those two, and this game would have only seen 46 combined points.

That high-scoring affair between these teams was a rarity in this rivalry.  Indeed, the Falcons and Panthers have combined for 44 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation (not counting OT) in six of their last seven meetings.  They had combined for 36, 34, 33, 44, 42 and 26 points in their six previous meetings.  That's an average of just 35.8 combined points per game, which is more than 11 points less than this 47-point total.

The Panthers managed just 13 points and 268 total yards against the Falcons last week as they are dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense right now, including a foot injury to RB Jonathan Stewart that will likely keep him out again.  Backup RB Fozzy Whittaker is also expected to miss this game.

Tampa Bay is 11-1 to the UNDER after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games vs. NFC South opponents.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Panthers last 16 vs. NFC South foes.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Knicks UNDER 202.5

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks today.  I like UNDERS in early Sunday NBA games, and this one really stands out as having some value with a total set of over 200 points.

For starters, the Knicks will be controlling the tempo as they are playing at home, and they prefer a slow pace.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.4 possessions per game.  The Knicks also struggle on the offensive end as they rank 24th in offensive efficiency.

New York is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* WVU/Arizona State Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on Arizona State +1

For starters, this will be a home game for the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Indeed, the Cactus Bowl will be played at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.  Not only do I believe the Sun Devils will have a massive home-field advantage as a result, I also believe they are the better team anyway, and they should not be underdogs.

The Sun Devils are a much better team than their 6-6 record would indicate, but that record has them undervalued heading into the bowl season.  Big things were expected of this team as they returned 16 starters this year and were expected to compete for a Pac-12 South title.

But the Sun Devils had some poor fortune in close games this year.  They lost by 2 at California and by 6 in overtime at home to Oregon despite outgaining the Ducks by 241 yards in a complete fluke loss.  They did go on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 to flash their potential, and they played much better at home this season than on the road.  The beat Arizona (52-37), Washington (27-17) and Colorado (48-23) at home within the Pac-12 with their only losses coming to USC and Oregon.

While Arizona State has four wins against bowl teams (New Mexico, UCLA, Washington, Arizona) this year, West Virginia only has two wins (Georgia Southern, Texas Tech) against bowl teams.  And one of those was a lackluster 31-26 home win over Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers lost to all of the best teams they played this season.  None of them were close, either.  They lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 24 to Baylor and by 30 to TCU.  They also lost their season finale 23-24 to Kansas State.  I just believe this team is getting too much respect from oddsdmakers despite having not done anything this season.

This is a great matchup for the Sun Devils, too.  Their strength defensively is stopping the run, while WVU's strength offensively is running the ball.  WVU averages 235 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  But the Sun Devils only give up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams who average 193 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They will be up to the task of stopping the run here.

West Virginia is 0-9 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992.  It is losing in these spots by 6.1 points per game despite being the favorite in all nine.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.  They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points per game.

WVU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  ASU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  Off that 2-point loss at Cal, the Sun Devils will be motivated to finish the season with a winning record instead of dropping to 6-7.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.

But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road.  They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season.  They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road.  They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.

Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent.  The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued right now due to their 11-0 start to the season.  But their only significant win came against Villanova on a neutral court, otherwise they've played a very soft schedule outside of that game.

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a bad loss to Northern Iowa.  But everything that could go wrong, did, as the Cyclones allowed 58% shooting as Northern Iowa simply could not miss from 3-point range.  But that loss has grounded this team, and they came back with a huge 81-79 upset win at Cincinnati as 5-point dogs their next time out.

Iowa State has won four of its last six meetings with Oklahoma with only one of its two losses coming by more than this 8-point margin.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9

The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State.  That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.

Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents.  The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1.  They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points.  Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11

The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  This is simply too many points today folks.

The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start.  They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida.  But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.

The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2.  I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.

The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the bowl season undervalued because they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs come into the bowl season overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those finishes to the regular season have forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be because they know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Penn State right now.

The 16-55 loss to Michigan State certainly leaves an eye sore.  But a closer look at that game shows that it wasn't nearly as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Nittany Lions gave away that game by committing four turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  They were only outgained by the Spartans 418-436 for the game, or by 18 total yards.  The difference was clearly the turnovers.  But the Nittany Lions had only committed 13 turnovers in 11 games prior to that contest, so it was an aberration, and don't expect it to become a pattern now.

That finish to the season will certainly have the Nittany Lions extra motivated coming into this bowl game.  They want to right the ship and end the season on a winning note, and you can bet that head coach James Franklin will have his players ready to go on January 2nd as a result.  Franklin owns a 3-0 career record in bowl games, so he knows how to get his players prepared the right way.  While you can't question the motivation of the Nittany Lions, you can certainly question the motivation of the Bulldogs.

Indeed, Georgia will have an interim head coach for this game after Mark Richt was fired.  Richt has left the program to go coach at his alma mater in Miami.  The Bulldogs hired former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  Not only will Georgia be without Richt, it will also be without defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who took over Smart's previous role as the defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Plus, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer won't coach in the bowl game either, leaving Georgia with a patchwork staff leading up to the game.

Receivers coach Bryan McClendon will take over as the interim coach, and I just cannot see this going well for the Bulldogs.  Few bowl teams undergo this many changes to their staff.  Losing your head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator is almost impossible to overcome.  You can see why this is my favorite play of the bowl season, ranked as my 25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR!

I was not impressed with the way the Bulldogs closed out the season even though they won four straight.  Their wins came against Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  They only beat Auburn by 7, needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern at home, and only beat Georgia Tech by 6.  While they may find a way to win this game, too, asking them to do so by a touchdown or more to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs just don't have the firepower on offense to put away the Nittany Lions.  They have been held to an average of just 14.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six games overall.  They were held to 3 by Florida, 9 by Missouri, 13 by Georgia Tech and 17 by Georgia Southern in four of those games.  It's not going to get any easier for this Georgia offense against a Penn State defense that is one of the best units in the country.

The Nittany Lions only allow 21.7 points, 325 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams that average 28.3 points, 386 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  I know the Penn State offense has struggled like Georgia, but the extra bowl practice will help the offensive line work on its problems.  Plus, QB Christian Hackenburg wants one big performance here to improve his draft stock after it plummeted throughout the regular season.

Penn State also falls into a proven bowl system that tells us to bet on teams entering the bowl season on an extended losing streak.  Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, including 16-8 ATS if their opponent is coming off a straight up win.  The Nittany Lions are the only team that qualifies this year.  These teams on 3-game skids have been consistently undervalued.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss -7

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the biggest frauds in all of college football.  Yes, they had a chance to win the Big 12 in the season finale, but their true colors showed against the best teams they played this season.  Let's also not forget that this team struggled to beat suspect competition with an 11-point win over Central Michigan, a 3-point win over Texas, a 2-point win over Kansas State and a 4-point win over Iowa State.

But the most telling story about the Cowboys is their performance against the top three teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  They gave up 29 points and 663 yards to TCU, 45 points and 700 yards to Baylor, and 58 points and 524 yards to Oklahoma.  So, against those three teams, they allowed averages of 44.0 points and 629.0 yards per game.

Conversely, Ole Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It was the only team to beat Alabama this season, and it even did so in Tuscaloosa.  The Rebels had some mental lapses in a few losses this season to Memphis, Florida and Arkansas, but this is easily the second-best team in the SEC.  It took a fluke fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime by Arkansas to beat the Rebels, and had they won that game, the Rebels would be your 2015 SEC champs.

Oklahoma State's suspect defense now has to go up against what I believe to be the best offense in the SEC.  The Rebels average 40.2 points, 515 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that give up 29.6 points, 402 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They put up 43 points on Alabama, 52 on Arkansas, 38 on LSU and 38 on Mississippi State.  I would say that is getting it done against those four defenses.

Plus, it's not like the Rebels are slouches defensively.  They have a well above-average defense that gives up 22.8 points, 387 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They will be up against a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State offense that average 6.5 yards per play against teams that allow 5.9 per play.

Oklahoma State only beat only one ranked team this season (TCU), and it was outgained by 207 yards by the Horned Frogs.  Ole Miss beat four ranked teams at the time they played them in Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  The return of future first-round pick Laremy Tunsil at left tackle late in the year gave the Rebels' offensive line a boost, and I look for this offense to shred Oklahoma State's suspect defense while putting up a big number in this one.

Ole Miss has done very well when oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 points over the last three seasons, winning these games by an average of 24.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a total set of 63 or higher as well.  Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games.  The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Ole Miss is 24-8-1 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday.

20* Iowa/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa +7

Iowa didn't get much respect all season, and that certainly hasn't changed here as the oddsmakers have pegged them as 7-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  They were 27 seconds away from a 13-0 season and a trip to the four-team playoff, but they still aren't getting any credit.  Look for the Hawkeyes to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game against Stanford as a result.

The Hawkeyes have never won the Rose Bowl, so they certainly won't be lacking any motivation anyways.  Fans are so excited that they are forking over some large cash to make the trip to Pasadena, and there will be more black and gold there than Cardinal fans as a result.  The Hawkeyes are expected to get at least 60,000 fans to Pasadena for their first Rose Bowl in 25 years.

Stanford lost 6-16 at Northwestern, while Iowa beat Northwestern 40-10 on the road.  That right there gives these teams a common opponent that lets you know that the Hawkeyes should not only be able to hang with the Cardinal, but to pull off the upset, too.  The Big Ten in general just never gets much respect from anyone outside of Ohio State.  But they have been a great bet in bowl games in recent years because of this false public perception of them.

This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes.  They won't be overmatched athletically like they would be if, say, USC was the opponent in the Rose Bowl.  Both the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are similar teams who run the ball and stop the run, it's just that I believe the Hawkeyes do it better.

Iowa rushed for 192 yards per game while Stanford rushed for 225 per game.  So, the key is going to be which teams stops the run better.  The Hawkeyes only allow 115 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, while the Cardinal give up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Overall, the Hawkeys give up 18.5 points, 334 yards per game and 4.8 per play, while the Cardinal give up 23.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The Hawkeyes are a tough team to blow out because they play such sound football.  They run the ball, stop the run, and take care of the football, and CJ Beathard is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.  You know when you bet the Hawkeyes that they aren't going to beat themselves.  They have only committed 14 turnovers in 13 games this season.  Conversely, they have forced 26 turnovers this year for a +12 differential.  CJ Bethard has thrown 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in 13 games this year, while also rushing for 270 yards and six scores.

Iowa got some good news prior to the Rose Bowl with a healthy return of running back Jordan Canzeri, who was knocked out of the 13-16 loss to Michigan State early with an ankle injury.  While the Hawkeyes have two other capable backs in LeShun Daniels (609 yards, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (463 yards, 6.3 per carry, 7 TD), Canzeri (976 yards, 5.5/carry, 12 TD) is their most complete back.  Whoever is running the football should find plenty of success against a Stanford defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game.  Iowa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams who average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Kirk Ferentz is 33-11 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the head coach at Iowa.  Take Iowa Friday.

20* Tennessee/Northwestern Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -8

We saw last year in the bowl game how Tennessee crushed Iowa 45-28 in a game that wasn't even that close.  It was yet another example of a Big Ten team being outmatched athletically by an SEC team.  The Volunteers used their team speed and did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Hawkeyes.  I look for this one to play out exactly the same way as Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to match up.

I was very high on Tennessee coming into the season because this was Butch Jones' most talented team yet, and a team that returned 18 starters.  The Volunteers didn't disappoint, because believe it or not, they nearly went 12-0 this year.  All four of their losses came by 7 points or less.  They just had some bad fortune in close games against some of the best teams in the country.

The Vols lost in double-overtime 24-31 to Oklahoma after blowing a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter.  They lost 20-24 to Arkansas after blowing a 14-0 lead.  They lost 27-28 to Florida after blowing a 27-14 lead in the final five minutes.  And they lost 14-19 at Alabama after holding a 14-13 lead with under three minutes to play.  As you can see, they played two playoff teams in Oklahoma & Alabama right down to the wire, a solid Arkansas team, and SEC East champ Florida. They easily could have won all four of those games.

But instead of being down about their poor fortune in those close games, the Volunteers got pissed off and played their best football of the season down the stretch.  They went 5-0 in their last five games overall with a 31-point win over Kentucky, a 3-point win over South Carolina, a 24-point win over North Texas, an 11-point win at Missouri and a 25-point win over Vanderbilt.

Northwestern might be the most overrated team in the country with its No. 13 ranking.  Oddsmakers agree in listing the 23rd-ranked Vols as 8-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have been winning ugly all season.  That works against suspect Big Ten competition, but it does not work against good teams.  That was evident in the 38-0 loss at Michigan and the 40-10 home loss to Iowa.  But the Wildcats are in for their stiffest challenge yet here because of the disadvantage they'll be at athletically.

Both teams have solid defenses as the Vols give up 21.2 points per game while the Wildcats surrender 16.4 points per game.  The Wildcats would have had a hard time only giving up 21.2 points per game against the schedule that Tennessee played.  So even though the Wildcats have the better numbers defensively, I don't believe they are the better defensive team.

The one thing that can't be argued is that Tennessee is head and shoulders better than Northwestern on offense.  The Vols put up 34.3 points per game this season.  The Wildcats managed to win 10 games despite only averaging 20.7 points, 333 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this year.  Once the Wildcats get behind in this one, they aren't going to have the firepower to catch up, just as Iowa didn't against Tennessee in last year's bowl game.

Tennessee just beat Vanderbilt 53-28 in the season finale.  That is a Vanderbilt team that plays a similar style to Northwestern, relying on great defense to make up for suspect offense.  Well, the Vols racked up 53 points and 527 total yards on that good Vanderbilt defense, and the Commodores couldn't do anything to catch up.  The Wildcats average 13 completions, 50.2% passing and 139 passing yards per game this season.  That's not going to get it done.

I'd much rather put my money on Joshua Dobbs and this Tennessee offense.  Dobbs has thrown for 2,125 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 623 yards and nine scores.  Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the Vols a great 1-2 punch in the backfield.  Hurd has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kamara has chipped in 645 yards and six scores while averaging 6.7 per carry.  Bet Tennessee Friday.