Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-31-24 | Rays v. Orioles -126 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -126 The Baltimore Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball at 35-19 this season. We are getting them at a great value tonight in Game 1 of this series against the Tampa Bay Rays. That's especially the case when you consider the Orioles have the rest advantage and the advantage on the mound. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6.1 runs per game during this stretch. They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go. I'll gladly back the underrated Albert Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 19 1/3 innings. The Rays just completed their series with the A's yesterday and won the final two games by exactly one run, so their bullpen is taxed. I'll gladly fade Aaron Civale, who is 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 11 homers in 56 2/3 innings. Civale is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings away from home. Civale is legitimately one of the worst starters in ball of baseball. He doesn't enjoy facing the Orioles, either, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three careers starts against them while allowing 6 homers in 16 innings. Bet the Orioles Friday. |
|||||||
05-31-24 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rays/Orioles OVER 8 The Orioles are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6.1 runs per game during this stretch. They are more than capable of covering this total on their own tonight, but I expect the Rays to chip in as well. Aaron Civale is 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 11 homers in 56 2/3 innings. Civale is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings away from home. Civale is legitimately one of the worst starters in ball of baseball. He doesn't enjoy facing the Orioles, either, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three careers starts against them while allowing 6 homers in 16 innings. Albert Suerez is due some regression and isn't going to go very deep into this game, meaning the Orioles will have to turn to their bullpen early. Suarez is only averaging 4.8 innings per start in his four starts this season. This has been a shaky Baltimore bullpen this season, and the Rays have been even worst on that front, plus their bullpen is taxed after consecutive one-run wins over the A's the last two days. Tampa Bay is 18-5 OVER in its last 23 games after a game where its bullpen threw 7 or more innings. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-31-24 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Reds/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5 This total is too low for a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley Field and two starting pitchers that are trending in the wrong direction. I expect both offenses to have their way this afternoon in what will be a slug fest. Graham Ashcraft is 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 10 starts this season after going 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his three starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 14 1/3 innings. Ashcraft is 1-5 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in six career starts against the Cubs. Javier Assad has finally shown a chink in the armor in his last two starts. He has allowed 6 earned runs, 4 homers and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings. He was due some negative regression and will get rocked again today. The OVER is 17-6 in Ashcraft's last 23 starts against a team with a losing record. The OVER is 13-3 in Reds last 16 road games against a NL starting pitcher with a 3.20 ERA or better. The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 12 of those 14 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-30-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 124-103 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
20* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -4.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression and some positive regression in close games. The Mavericks out shot them in the first three games of the series drastically and they were still all 50/50 games in the final three minutes. Dallas won all of them. Minnesota has life now after a 105-100 victory in Game 4 as they shot 52.7% while Dallas shot just 42%. I love some of the adjustments they made by trailing Luka Doncic and not letting him have a bunch of step backs, which is his game. They funneled him to the rim and he looked a lot more uncomfortable in Game 4. I think the Timberwolves have a legitimate shot to come back and win this series, and I'm expecting a blowout victory in their favor in Game 5 at home. Dereck Lively II is questionable to play tonight after sitting Game 4. He is their best rebounder and rim defender, and the Timberwolves were able to get to the rim at will without him. Even if he plays he won't be 100%. Bet the Timberwolves Thursday. |
|||||||
05-30-24 | Nationals +180 v. Braves | 3-1 | Win | 180 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +180 The Washington Nationals have been quietly one of the most profitable teams in baseball to back this season. They are 25-29 (+9.5 Units) in all games and 15-16 (+8 Units) in road games. They are consistently undervalued as underdogs, and that is the case again today. Trevor Williams is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 10 starts this season, and the Nationals are 8-2 (+10 Units) in his eight starts. He should not be this big of an underdog to the Braves, who are really struggling at the plate getting outscored 15-8 by the Nationals in three games thus far in this series. The loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. isn't being factored in enough. The Braves will turn to rookie Ray Kerr tonight, and he is getting way too much respect that is unwarranted. Kerr went 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA at AAA Gwinnett. Kerr has a 5.40 ERA in 13 1/3 innings with the Braves this season as well. He has allowed a whopping 7 homers in 27 1/3 innings between AAA and the Braves this season. The Braves are 5-9 in their last 14 games overall despite being favored in 13 of them and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in nine of those 14 games. Bet the Nationals Thursday. |
|||||||
05-30-24 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 7 | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/Mariners OVER 7 After a pair of pitcher's duels to open this series, there's value on the OVER 7 in Game 3 with these two starting pitchers on the mound. I'm expecting both offenses to break out today. Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, and no game involving Arrighetti should have a total of 7. He is 2-5 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-4 with a 10.26 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in four road starts. The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own. Logan Gilbert is 0-2 with a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 5 starts against the Astros. Houston is scoring 4.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Houston is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span coming in. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
05-29-24 | Royals +120 v. Twins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 120 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals +120 What more does Seth Lugo have to do to get some respect? He and the Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season and remain undervalued as underdogs to the Minnesota Twins tonight when they shouldn't be. Lugo is 8-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in five road starts. Lugo is 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins as well. Bailey Ober is getting way too much respect tonight. He is 5-2 with a 4.33 ERA in 10 starts this season. Ober has never beaten the Royals, going 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in eight career starts against them. He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Royals. Bet the Royals Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-29-24 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+116) The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing seven of their last eight games overall including Game 1 of this series to the Oakland A's. They have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs. Ryan Pepiot is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight starts for the Rays this season with 44 K's in 40 2/3 innings. He'll be opposed by Joey Estes, who is 1-1 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts this season. He has allowed 12 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in. The A's are 0-6 in their last six games following a win. Oakland is 6-16 in its last 22 games overall with 13 losses by 2 runs or more. Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-29-24 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 7 This is a very low total for a game involving the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox. The Orioles are scoring 5.0 runs per game overall and 5.0 runs per game at home. The Red Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road and 4.9 runs per game against right-handed starters. The Red Sox and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in 10 of their last 13 games overall, including 9 runs or more in nine of those 13 games. The Orioles and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last seven games overall, and 7 runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Kutter Crawford allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Brewers on May 24th. Crawford is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA in three career starts against Baltimore. Corbin Burnes is getting too much respect from the books. He allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings of a 6-4 win over the lowly White Sox in his last start, and he has faced a very easy schedule of opponents this season. The OVER is 4-0-1 in five meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox this season with 11 or more combined runs in four of the five. The Orioles and Red Sox have combined for 7 runs or more in seven consecutive meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-28-24 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Mariners OVER 7.5 Any game with Hunter Brown starting for the Astros should not have a total of 7.5 or lower. Brown is 1-5 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-3 with a 19.95 ERA and 3.91 WHIP in three road starts. Brown is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle, allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 10 innings. The Astros will have enough success at the plate against Luis Castillo to get us the OVER as well. Castillow has allowed 9 homers in 65 1/3 innings this season, including 4 homers in 17 innings in his last three starts. Castillo allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings in his last start against Houston. Houston is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games off a one-run loss. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-28-24 | Astros v. Mariners -128 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -128 Hunter Brown is 1-5 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-3 with a 19.95 ERA and 3.91 WHIP in three road starts. Brown is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle, allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 10 innings. The Mariners have a massive advantage on the mound with Luis Castillo over Brown. Castillo is 4-6 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Castillo is 2-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five career starts against the Astros. Houston is 0-9 when revenging three consecutive losses to an opponent as a favorite this season. Bet the Mariners Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-28-24 | Wolves +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +1.5 To say the Dallas Mavericks are due some negative shooting regression would be a massive understatement. They shot 49.4% in Game 1, 48.8% in Game 2 and 55.9% in Game 3 including 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range. I don't think Doncic and Irving can keep up this pace in Game 4 tonight. To say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression would also be an understatement. They shot 42.7% from the field in Game 1, 41.2% in Game 2 and just 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range in Game 3. And despite losing the shooting battle in all three games, the Timberwolves had a great chance to win all three in the final 3 minutes. The Mavericks just lost Dereck Lively II to a neck injury in Game 3 and he is doubtful to play tonight. The Timberwolves really attacked the rim when he wasn't on the court and will have plenty of success doing just that tonight. Lively II along with Gafford are the reason the Mavericks have been so dominant on the interior defensively. Losing their leading rebounder in Lively II is a sneaky injury that isn't being factored in enough with all of the dirty work he does for this team. Minnesota is 11-2 ATS following three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a home win. The Timberwolves are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road in these playoffs. This series isn't over just yet. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-28-24 | Cubs +144 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 144 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Cubs +144 The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost five consecutive games for the first time all season, including Game 1 of this series to the Brewers yesterday. Now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Cubs in one of their biggest underdog roles of the season. This line suggest that the Brewers have a big advantage on the mound, but I don't believe that to be the case. Ben Brown has been awesome for the Cubs this season with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts while allowing only 6 earned runs and one homer in 23 innings with 24 K's. Freddy Peralta consistently gets too much respect from the books. He is 3-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 10 starts this season, and 1-0 with a 4.24 ERA in three home starts. Peralta has allowed 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs. Bet the Cubs Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-28-24 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 8 The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best lineups in baseball. They are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season and have now scored at least 4 runs in six consecutive games. The Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road this season and 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. I expect both teams to get 4-plus runs tonight. The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own against Bryan Bello, who is 5-2 with a 4.04 ERA in eight starts this season, and 3-1 with a 4.72 ERA in five road starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings on the highway. Bello is 1-2 with a 4.02 ERA in three career starts against the Orioles. Grayson Rodriquez is -1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two career starts against Boston while allowing 6 runs, 4 earned, and 17 base runners in 10 innings. Both lineups have seen these two starters earlier this season in 2024 which gives them an advantage as well. The OVER is 20-10 in Rodriquez's last 30 starts. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-27-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +8.5 | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5 The Indiana Pacers should be up 2-1 on the Boston Celtics in this series. This is a much more evenly matched series than these lines have suggested, and they should not be catching 8.5 points in Game 4 tonight. The Pacers' biggest strength is their depth, and with only one day of rest in between every game so far that works in their favor the longer this series goes. The Celtics are still without Kristaps Porzingis and now Luke Kornet is out, giving them zero rim protection inside. The Pacers took advantage in Game 3 and got to the rim at will, and they will get to the rim at will again in Game 4. The Pacers only shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 in Game 3 and still only lost by 3. They are due some positive shooting regression in that department as well. The Pacers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games with their lone loss coming in 3 points in Game 4. They have a tremendous home-court advantage. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Monday. |
|||||||
05-27-24 | Phillies v. Giants OVER 8 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Phillies/Giants NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8 Both the Phillies and Giants are raking at the plate right now. The Phillies are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season, and the Giants have scored 6 or more runs in seven of their last nine games overall. Both of these starting pitchers are vulnerable in this one. Blake Snell is 0-3 with an 11.40 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs in 15 innings. Taijuan Walker is 3-0 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
05-27-24 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
20* Cubs/Brewers NL Central No-Brainer on OVER 8 This total is too short for these two starting pitchers up against these two potent offenses. The Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game overall and 5.2 runs per game at home. The Cubs are scoring 4.5 runs per game against left-handed starters. Justin Steele has battled injury and is 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-0 with a 7.27 ERA in two road starts. Steele is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings. Robert Gasser is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three starts for the Brewers, but he has terrible stuff with just 6 K's in 17 innings. He has also faced the Marlins, Pirates and Cardinals and takes a big step up in class here against this Cubs lineup. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
05-27-24 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Cards/Reds NL Central ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5 The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Reds tonight. There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Both the Cardinals and Reds are heating up at the plate and both should have success today against these two starting pitchers. Lance Lynn is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts for the Cardinals this season. Lynn has allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds. Nick Lodolo is 1-1 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two careers tarts against St. Louis. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
05-26-24 | Cubs +124 v. Cardinals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +124 The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight coming in off three consecutive losses. This is the first time all season they have lost more than two in a row, so they have been very resilient. I'll gladly back Javier Assad, who has the best ERA in all of baseball dating back to last June. Assad is 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts this season while allowing just 4 homers and 10 earned runs in 53 innings. Sonny Gray has really struggled in his last three starts for the Cardinals, going 2-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 12 earned runs, 5 homers and 23 base runners in 16 2/3 innings. He should not be getting this much respect from the books tonight. The Cubs are 8-2 in Assad's last 10 starts as an underdog. Bet the Cubs Sunday. |
|||||||
05-26-24 | Wolves +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -112 | 45 h 40 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +3.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves shot 42.7% while the Dallas Mavericks shot 49.4% in Game 1 with the Mavericks winning 108-105. The Timberwolves shot 41.2% while the Mavericks shot 48.8% in Game 2 with Dallas winning 109-108. As you can see, the two games were decided by a combined 4 points. It's safe to say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression in this series, while it will be hard for the Mavericks to keep up this pace against the best defensive team in the league. I think we get that positive regression in Game 3 for the Timberwolves. Minnesota has actually played its best basketball on the road in these playoffs. Indeed, the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road in the postseason. They beat the Suns by 17 and 6, and they beat the Nuggets by 7, 26 and 8 points in their five road victories. Minnesota has been a resilient team all season and will respond in Game 3 tonight. The Timberwolves are 11-3 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday. |
|||||||
05-26-24 | Guardians -111 v. Angels | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -111 The Cleveland Guardians are 8-0 in their last eight games overall and will be motivated to keep this winning streak going Sunday. That's why I'm not worried about a letdown here after they took the first two games of this series from the Angels. Plus, they have a massive advantage on the mound. Ben Lively is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven starts for the Guardians this season. Lively allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of a 7-1 victory over the Angels in his lone career start against them, which came earlier this month on May 4th. Reid Detmers is 3-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts. Detmers is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners in 14 innings. Detmers allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-1 loss to the Guardians on May 4th earlier this month opposite Lively. That should come as no surprise considering the Guardians are 9-2 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .272 and scoring 6.5 runs per game against them. The Angels are 13-29 against right-handed starters this season, hitting .234 and scoring 3.9 runs per game against them. Bet the Guardians Sunday. |
|||||||
05-26-24 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Angels OVER 8 The Cleveland Guardians are capable of covering this total on their own. The Guardians are 9-2 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .272 and scoring 6.5 runs per game against them. Lefty Reid Detmers is 3-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts. Detmers is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners in 14 innings. Detmers allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-1 loss to the Guardians on May 4th earlier this month. I think the Angels will do enough to contribute to this total against Ben Lively, who is due some negative regression. Lively is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four road starts this season and has been much better at home than he has been on the road. The Angels are scoring 4.3 runs per game at home this season. The OVER is 17-7 in Detmers' last 24 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The OVER is 19-8 in Angels last 27 games against an AL starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
05-26-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135) I love the spot for the Atlanta Braves today. They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates as -165 and -150 favorites. Now they will avoid the sweep and win in a blowout in Game 3 due to their massive advantage on the mound. The old Chris Sale is back. He is 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in nine starts this season, allowing just 14 earned runs, 4 homers and 8 walks in 56 2/3 innings with 70 K's. Sale is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three starts, pitching 20 shutout innings with 28 K's. Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Perez has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 15 earned runs, 7 homers and 28 base runners in 14 1/3 innings. The Braves are 71-25 when revenging two consecutive losses as a -150 favorite and outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Braves on the Run Line Sunday. |
|||||||
05-25-24 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110) I love the spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight after getting shut out 3-0 by the Miami Marlins as -180 favorites in Game 1. It was a letdown spot for the Diamondbacks coming off consecutive wins over the Dodgers in Los Angeles the two games prior. Now the Diamondbacks will be refocused tonight and I like their chances of winning by multiple runs with the massive advantage they have on the mound. Lefty Jordan Montgomery is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three career starts against Miami, and his teams are 3-0 in those three starts winning all three by 2 runs or more. I mention lefty because the Marlins are atrocious against left-handed starters, going 1-17 against them this season while hitting .220 and scoring just 2.8 runs per game. I'll also gladly fade Sixto Sanchez, who is one of the worst starters in baseball. Sanchez is 0-1 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 34 base runners in 19 1/3 innings with just 12 K's. Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Saturday. |
|||||||
05-25-24 | Yankees v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
15* Yankees/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 Both the Yankees and Padres feast on right-handed pitching. The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, while the Padres are scoring 5.3 runs per game against them. This total of 7.5 is too low tonight for these two offenses. Marcus Stroman is due some regression considering he already has 26 walks and 8 homers allowed in 56 innings. Dylan Cease has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings. Cease is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees as well. The OVER is 5-1 in Yankees last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in five of the six. The OVER is 8-3 in Padres last 11 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7.5 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5 The Indiana Pacers may not have Tyrese Haliburton tonight. But teams tend to rally in that first game without their star player, and I expect the Pacers to do just that tonight. TJ McConnell is one of the best backup PG's in the NBA with not only his ability to run the offense, but also his ability to defend. He has been a monster in these playoffs. The Pacers are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA which is their biggest strength, so the loss of Haliburton won't hurt them as much as it would most teams. And this Indiana team has been dynamite at home in these playoffs with one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA. Indeed, the Pacers are a perfect 11-0 SU in their last 11 home games including 6-0 in these playoffs. They will feed off their home crowd tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the 'clunker' game for the Celtics, who have one in every series. They could let up knowing they likely won't have to face Haliburton and with a 2-0 lead in this series. Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Saturday. |
|||||||
05-25-24 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8 Temps will be in the 80's with the ball flying out in St. Louis tonight. The Cardinals are hot at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall with the OVER going 7-1-1 in those nine games. The Cubs have cooled off of late, but I expect them to get their bats going tonight. They will feast on Miles Mikolas, who is 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in four road starts. Mikolas has allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs. James Taillon is getting too much respect for what he has done in a small sample size of six starts this season. But Taillon has come back down to reality in his last two starts, allowing 10 runs, 5 earned, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
05-25-24 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Reds OVER 9 The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds combined for 15 runs yesterday in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. It will be another slug fest tonight with the ball flying out with temps in the 80's and light winds blowing out to center. Walker Buehler is making his way back from injury for the Dodgers and has not been sharp in his three starts, averaging just 4.4 innings per start with a 4.05 ERA and 3 homers allowed. He will be on a pitch count again tonight. Hunter Greene is 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in six home starts for the Reds this season. Green is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 2/3 innings. Cincinnati is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 home games against a NL team with a .430 slugging percentage or higher. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
05-24-24 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Angels OVER 7.5 Two of the most underrated offenses in baseball square off tonight with a total of only 7.5 runs. Both offenses will get to face southpaws, and both offenses have lit up left-handed starters this season. The Angels have shown surprising depth in their lineup despite losing some key players to injury. They have quietly scored 4 runs or more in 11 of their last 15 games overall while averaging 5.2 runs per game in those 15 games. Los Angeles is hitting .294 and scoring 6.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. The Guardians are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season and have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland is hitting .271 and scoring 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Logan Allen is 5-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 10 starts this season and the OVER is 8-2 in his 10 starts. Patrick Sandoval is 2-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts this season and the OVER is 6-3-1 in his 10 starts. Sandoval is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in four home starts this season as well. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-24-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 20 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves were coming off their biggest win in franchise history by coming back from 20 points down in the 2H to beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets on the road in Game 7. It was not a good spot for them in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. The Timberwolves looked flat and tired in Game 1. I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 2 with a blowout victory. Head coach Chris Finch will make the proper adjustments to slow down Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, who combined for 63 points in Game 1. The Mavericks just don't have many players that can beat the Timberwolves outside Irving and Doncic. So expect the Timberwolves to put more focus on these two and to have a lot more success defensively. After all, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with their ability to protect the rim and their length on the perimeter. Anthony Edwards in particular looked gassed in Game 1. He will respond in a big way in Game 2. The Mavericks don't have an answer for him defensively. He will be in full on attack mode. The Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after shooting just 42.7% in Game 1 including 61.1% from the FT line. The Mavericks shot 49.4% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression. Minnesota is 11-2 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. The Timberwolves are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games when revenging a loss as a home favorite. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Minnesota is a resilient bunch that will respond in a big way tonight. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Friday. |
|||||||
05-24-24 | Orioles -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-145) The Baltimore Orioles have massive advantages at the plate and on the mound today over the Chicago White Sox that will have them winning this game by multiple runs tonight. The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season while the White Sox are scoring 2.9 runs per game. Corbin Burnes is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Orioles. He'll be opposed by Chris Flexen, who is 2-4 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight starts for the White Sox. Flexen allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Yankees in his last start. The Orioles are 29-8 in their last 37 games against AL teams that allow 4.9 or more runs per game and outscoring these teams by 2.2 runs per game. Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Friday. |
|||||||
05-24-24 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Reds OVER 9.5 With temps in the 80's in Cincinnati tonight the ball should be flying out of hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Both offenses should have plenty of success at the plate against these two below-average starting pitchers to get 10 or more combined runs. Graham Ashcraft is 2-1 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in three home starts this season while allowing 13 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings. He has control issues walking 9 batters in 14 innings in his last three starts. James Paxton has been one of the luckiest starters in baseball. He has a 2.84 ERA despite a 1.38 WHIP due to having 24 walks in 44 1/3 innings with only 24 K's. He is due some negative regression, and he allowed 2 homers in 6 innings to the Reds in his last start. The Reds get to see him again here 7 days later, and the Dodgers get to see Ashcraft again 6 days after just facing him. The Dodgers are 17-6 OVER in their last 23 games after scoring one run or less. Cincinnati is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games against an NL team with a .430 or better slugging percentage. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-23-24 | Pacers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +9 The Indiana Pacers committed 21 turnovers and made 15 fewer free throws than the Boston Celtics and still should have beaten them in Game 1. This series is clearly a lot closer than the oddsmakers suggest. The Celtics got fortunate to catch the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and and a few others and the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen and a few others. They had an easy path to get here and are overvalued as a result. The Celtics lost Game 2 outright at home to the Heat as 14.5-point favorites and Game 2 outright at home to the Cavaliers as 13-point favorites. They tend to relax in these Game 2's at home, and have actually been better in the playoffs on the road than at home over the last couple seasons. They don't have the kind of home-court advantage that these lines suggest. The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are healthy. They won Game 6 116-103 at home over the Knicks and shot 53.8% as a team. They won Game 7 130-109 as 2.5-point road dogs and shot 67.1% as a team. They should have beaten the Celtics in their 133-128 Game 1 loss as 10-point dogs and shot 53.5% as a team. The Pacers are an offensive juggernaut and have improved defensively in these playoffs. They are also the deeper team, which makes it easier for them to handle this short turnaround than the Celtics. Holiday played 48 minutes, Tatum 45, Brown 44, White 42 and Horford 40 in Game 1. This is where not having Kristaps Porzingis really hurts them, especially with the Pacers attacking both Horford and Kornet with a ton of success. I like how both Rick Carlisle and Tyrese Haliburton took responsibility for the Game 1 loss. That will endear them to the rest of the players on this team, and I expect them to fire back with another big effort in Game 2 to try and even this series. Each of the last three meetings between the Celtics and Pacers were decided by 5 points or fewer this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Thursday. |
|||||||
05-23-24 | Orioles -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-140) The Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated for a victory today after getting swept by the St. Louis Cardinals last series. It was the first time the Orioles have been swept in 107 series, which spanned more then two years. That just shows the kind of resiliency this team has. Now the Orioles will get right in blowout fashion against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Chicago White Sox, who are 15-34 this season and hitting just .217 while scoring 2.9 runs per game. Injuries to their best hitters have kept the White Sox struggling at the plate. They are 1-5 in their last six games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in all five losses. Grayson Rodriquez will shut down the White Sox today. Rodriquez is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven starts this season. He has fired 11 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts coming in. Rodriquez fired 6 shutout innings in a 9-0 victory over the White Sox in his last start against them. Mike Clevinger is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in three starts this season and working his way back from injury. He is averaging just 3.8 innings per start and will be on a pitch count again, meaning the Orioles will get into Chicago's bullpen early. Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Thursday. |
|||||||
05-23-24 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -104 | 9-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
15* MLB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Tigers -104 The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting swept by the Kansas City Royals last series to drop their 4th consecutive game. I expect them to get back on track at home tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound behind the underrated Jack Flaherty. He has gone 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in nine starts this season with a whopping 72 K's in 54 2/3 innings. Flaherty has never lost to the Blue Jays, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two career starts against them, both of which came last season. He allowed one earned run in 11 innings in those two starts. Kevin Gausman is one of the more overrated starters in baseball. He is 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine starts this season. He has been particularly poor of late, allowing 9 earned runs and 21 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Rays and Twins. Bet the Tigers Thursday. |
|||||||
05-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130) The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks that should lead to them winning this game by multiple runs. The Dodgers also have a hatred for the Diamondbacks after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year to add to their motivation. Tyler Glasnow is 6-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 81 K's in 62 innings. I expect him to shut down the Diamondbacks and he hasn't faced them since 2017, so he will have the element of surprise working in his favor. Ryne Nelson is one of the worst starters in baseball, going 2-3 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in seven starts this season. Nelson has allowed 23 earned runs, 4 homers and 55 base runners in 29 1/3 innings. The Dodgers will hang a big number on him tonight. Los Angeles is 58-24 in its last 82 games off a loss, and 29-7 off a loss by 4 runs or more while outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-22-24 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 206.5 | 108-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
15* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 206.5 Defense is the No. 1 reason both the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves have made it to the Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves have been the best defensive team in the NBA all season, and the Mavericks have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since trading for Gafford and Washington. The Timberwolves allow nothing at the rim with Gobert, Reid and Towns, and they have elite length on the perimeter in Edwards, McDaniels and Alexander-Walker. They match up very well with the Mavericks as their length on the perimeter will give Doncic and Irving troubles. The Mavericks allow nothing at the rim with Gafford and Lively protecting the paint. This has made life much easier on them because Doncic and Irving are defensive liabilities. But the Mavericks can hide these two on Conley and McDaniels most likely. The Timberwolves just held the Nuggets to an average of 80 points per game in winning each of their last two games in this series. The Mavericks held the Thunder to 101 points or fewer in three of their final four games. Both teams will struggle to get to 100 in Game 1 tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-22-24 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Cubs OVER 8.5 The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cubs and Braves tonight. Temps will be in the 60's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to right-center inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. Justin Steele has battled injury this season and just hasn't been himself. Steele is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts. He has been particularly poor in his last two, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 2/3 innings in consecutive losses to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Max Fried is 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA in nine starts for the Braves this season. I think he's a little overrated because he has just 39 K's in 49 2/3 innings and pitches to contact. He allowed 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 1/3 innings to the Padres in his last start. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-22-24 | Red Sox v. Rays -125 | 8-5 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -125 I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They have lost the first two games of this series to the Boston Red Sox and will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep. The Rays are 14-2 in their last 16 games off a loss to a division opponent as a home favorite. Ryan Pepiot has been impressive for the Rays this season, going 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts with 41 K's in 36 2/3 innings. This will be his first career start against the Red Sox, which will work in his favor with the element of surprise. Brayan Bello has a 4.79 ERA in four road starts this season while allowing 6 homers in 20 2/3 innings. Bello does not enjoy facing the Rays, going 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five career starts against them. Bet the Rays Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-22-24 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Astros OVER 9 The Houston Astros are heating up at the plate. They have scored 6 or more runs in six of their last 10 games overall and are averaging 6.0 runs per game during this stretch. They are capable of covering this total on their own. The Angels have shown surprising depth in their lineup despite losing some key players to injury. They have quietly scored 4 runs or more in 11 of their last 14 games overall while averaging 5.4 runs per game in those 14 games. Hunter Brown is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 1-4 with an 8.63 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in eight starts this season. Brown allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Angels in his lone career start against them. Tyler Anderson has given up a lot of hard contact this season and is fortunate to have a 2.72 ERA as a result. He is due some negative regression. That will come today against Houston. Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in seven career starts against the Astros. He allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 11-3 defeat in his last start against Houston. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Diamondbacks/Dodgers OVER 8.5 The Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season and 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters. They can cover this total on their own, but should get plenty of help from the Diamondbacks, who are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road this season. Brandon Pfaadt is one of the most overrated starters in baseball. Pfaadt is 1-3 with a 4.17 ERA in nine starts this season and 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA in four road starts. Pfaadt is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. Gavin Stone is due some regression after going 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in eight starts for the Dodgers this season. He doesn't have great 'stuff' with just 29 K's in 44 innings and gives up a lot of hard hit balls. The OVER is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last four games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all four. The OVER is 15-4 in Dodgers' 19 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs this season. There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight as well. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 221.5 | Top | 128-133 | Win | 100 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pacers/Celtics OVER 221.5 Let's compare this total to the totals in the five regular season meetings between the Celtics and Pacers. The totals were set at 234 in Game 1, 245.5 in Game 2, 249.5 in Game 3, 247 in Game 4 and 246 in Game 5. Now this total is 221.5 for Game 1 of this playoff series. That fact alone shows there is value with the OVER. The Pacers and Celtics combined for 253, 266, 219, 234 and 259 points in their five meetings this season. They have averaged 246.2 combined points per game in their five meetings this season, which is roughly 25 points more than this 221.5-point total. The Celtics have had the luxury of facing two banged up teams in the Cavaliers and Heat who were missing their best players and multiple players. Now they have to take on a healthy Pacers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating. The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in offensive rating, and this is going to be a shootout type of series because of it, especially in Game 1. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Astros OVER 8.5 The Houston Astros are heating up at the plate. They have scored 7 or more runs in five of their last nine games overall and are averaging 6.0 runs per game during this stretch. They are capable of covering this total on their own. The Angels have shown surprising depth in their lineup despite losing some key players to injury. They have quietly scored 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 13 games overall while averaging 5.5 runs per game in those 13 games. Griffin Canning is 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine starts for the Angels this season, including 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in four road starts. Canning is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in six career starts against the Astros. Cristian Javier has allowed 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 12 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against two of the worst lineups in baseball in the A's and Tigers. The OVER is 6-1 in Javier's seven career starts against the Angels. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Orioles v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
15* Interleague Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Cardinals OVER 9 The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Cardinals tonight. Temps will be in the 90's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to left at Busch Stadium in St. Louis tonight. The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own against Lance Lynn, who is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-0 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four home starts. Lynn is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. He has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Baltimore. But the Cardinals are swinging the bats better than they have all season right now. They are scoring 6.4 runs per game in their last seven games and should do enough off Kyle Bradish to contribute. The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 11 games overall and 7-0 in Cardinals last seven games overall. The OVER is 11-1 in Lynn's last 12 starts vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more homers per game. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Orioles -140 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -140 The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate over the St. Louis Cardinals today which is why I'm willing to lay -140 on them. The Orioles are scoring 5.0 runs per game while the Cardinals are scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season. Kyle Bradish is 0-0 with a 2.63 ERA in three starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings with 17 K's. Bradish held the Cardinals to 2 earned runs in 7 innings with 11 K's in his lone career start against them in a 5-3 victory. Lance Lynn is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-0 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four home starts. Lynn is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. He has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Baltimore. Baltimore is a perfect 9-0 after losing two of its last three games this season. The Orioles are 8-0 in Bradish's last eight road starts against teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game. Bet the Orioles Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Braves v. Cubs +110 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs +110 The Chicago Cubs have a massive rest advantage over the Atlanta Braves tonight. The Braves had to play a double-header against the San Diego Padres on Monday, while the Cubs had Monday off and were able to stay at home after hosting Pittsburgh over the weekend. The Cubs also have the advantage on the mound behind Javier Assad, who has the best ERA in baseball since June of last season and is arguably the single-most underrated starter in the league. Assad is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four home starts. Assad is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts against the Braves. He just pitched 6 shutout innings with 7 K's in his last start against Atlanta on May 15th of a 7-1 victory as a +170 road underdog. Assad has allowed one earned run or fewer in six consecutive starts now, and 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 consecutive starts. Morton allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings of that 7-1 defeat to Assad and the Cubs on May 15th. Morton fell to 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 19 career starts against Chicago. He has allowed 8 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs. The Cubs are 11-3 (+13.2 Units) in Assad's last 14 starts as an underdog. Bet the Cubs Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-21-24 | Padres v. Reds +107 | 0-2 | Win | 107 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Reds +107 The Cincinnati Reds have a big rest advantage over the San Diego Padres today and should not be home underdogs as a result. The Padres just played a double-header against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, while the Reds had Monday off. I also believe the Reds have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Andrew Abbott, who is 2-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in nine starts this season. Abbott has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this season. He held the Padres to one earned run in 7 2/3 innings with 12 K's in his lone career start against them last season. Joe Musgrove is one of the most overrated starters in baseball. He returned from injury this season and clearly still isn't right. Musgrove is 3-3 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing 29 earned runs and 10 homers in 41 innings. Bet the Reds Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-20-24 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) The Los Angeles Dodgers were swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the playoffs last year. They haven't forgotten and will be looking for revenge all season on the Diamondbacks. They outscored Arizona 19-8 in their first three meetings this season, and I expect them to win in a blowout at home tonight. The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts this season. Yamamoto fired 6 shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Diamondbacks on May 1st. The Diamondbacks will be making this a bullpen game starting with opener Joe Mantiply, who won't go more than one or two innings in this one. This is a poor Arizona bullpen with a 4.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the season. The Dodgers should hang a big number on Mantiply and this bullpen tonight. The Dodgers are 19-3 in their last 22 May home games and outscoring opponents by 3.2 runs per game in this spot. Los Angeles is 45-12 in its last 57 home games off three or more consecutive wins. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday. |
|||||||
05-20-24 | Orioles v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Cardinals OVER 7.5 Temps will be in the 80's tonight in St. Louis with light winds blowing out to left. This total of 7.5 is too low for these conditions with these two offenses that are heating up at the plate as the weather gets warmer. The OVER is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 games overall. They have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in their last six games. The Orioles just scored 18 runs against the Mariners over the weekend for an average of 6.0 runs per game. Sonny Gray has really struggled in his last two starts for the Cardinals allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings. Dean Kremer will be making his 1st start since May 12th. He was rocked for 6 runs, 3 earned, and 8 base runners in a 9-2 loss to the Diamondbacks in his last start. Gray allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against the Orioles last season. Kremer allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone career start against the Cardinals last season. The OVER is 13-3 in Gray's last 16 home starts against AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
05-20-24 | Orioles +116 v. Cardinals | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +116 The Baltimore Orioles are scoring 5.0 runs per game while the St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 3.8 runs per game this season. I'll gladly back the better offense here as underdogs to the Cardinals in Game 1 of this series. Sonny Gray has really struggled in his last two starts for the Cardinals allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings. Gray allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against the Orioles last season. I like what I've seen from Dean Kremer this season. He is 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight starts this season with 47 K's in 46 innings. Kremer has been at his best away from home, going 2-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in four road starts this season. Baltimore is 11-1 on the road with a money line of +125 to -125 this season. Bet the Orioles Monday. |
|||||||
05-20-24 | Mariners v. Yankees -130 | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -130 The New York Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now going 7-0 in their last seven games overall while hitting .300 and scoring 5.9 runs per game. They will be motivated to extend their winning streak to 8 games tonight. I like their chances up against Seattle's Logan Gilbert, who does not enjoy facing the Yankees one bit. Gilbert is 0-2 with a 12.15 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees, allowing 18 earned runs, 5 homers and 30 base runners in 13 1/3 innings. He has also allowed 11 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 10 2/3 innings while losing each of his last two starts coming in. Marcus Stroman is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in nine starts for the Yankees this season. Stroman has posted a 3.75 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners. The Yankees are 27-9 against right-handed starters this season. Bet the Yankees Monday. |
|||||||
05-20-24 | Red Sox v. Rays -106 | 5-0 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
15* Red Sox/Rays AL East ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -106 The Tampa Bay Rays have been on a tear since a return to health for both their lineup and their bullpen. They have gone 11-5 in their last 16 games overall while scoring at least 4 runs in eight of their last nine games overall. The Boston Red Sox have been plagued by injuries over the last couple weeks and are just 5-11 in their last 16 games overall. They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in nine of those 11 losses as their offense has gone ice cold. Taj Bradley has been impressive in his two starts this season going 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while allowing just 3 earned runs and one home in 11 innings with 13 K's. Bradley has never lost to the Red Sox, going 3-0 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in three career starts against them. Tanner Houck has never beaten the Rays, going 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in four career starts against them. He has allowed 14 earned runs and 33 base runners in 18 2/3 innings in those four starts. Tampa Bay is 15-2 in its last 17 home meetings with Boston. Bet the Rays Monday. |
|||||||
05-19-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 199.5 | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 69 h 59 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses. Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities. NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries. This has been a very low-scoring series thus far with 209 or fewer combined points in five of the six games, including 186 in Game 2 and 185 in Game 6. This despite one team shooting at least 50% from the floor in every game outside of Game 6. I don't see either team shooting 50% in this winner-take-all contest. Jamaal Murray suffered an elbow injury in Game 5 and shot 4-of-18 from the field. He won't be 100% by Sunday. Mike Conley Jr. is battling an achilles injury for the Timberwolves, and Anthony Edwards suffered a back injury in Game 6. Both teams are pretty beat up right now, and that's another reason I don't expect either to have much success offensively. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday. |
|||||||
05-19-24 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 209 | 130-109 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Knicks ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 209 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses. Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities. NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries. The New York Knicks are in a world of hurt offensively right now. They already lost OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury earlier this series, and now Josh Hart suffered a strained abdomen in Game 6. Both are highly questionable to play tonight, and if either or both go it will affect them more on offense than it does on defense. The Knicks know their best strategy is to slow down the tempo and try and grind one out with all their injuries. They will control the tempo playing at home, and it will be played at a snail's pace, which tends to be the case for all Game 7's. Indiana is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 road playoff games when attempting to close out a series. New York is 9-1 UNDER when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
05-19-24 | Brewers v. Astros OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Astros OVER 9 The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the most underrated offensive teams in baseball. They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and are 27-16-1 OVER in their 44 games this season. The Houston Astros are scoring 4.6 runs per game despite not hitting up to their potential to this point. This total of 9 is too low for these two starting pitchers today. Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Arrighetti is 1-4 with a 7.52 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in six starts, allowing 22 earned runs, 4 homers and 50 base runners in 26 1/3 innings. Colin Rea has come back down to reality after a good start this season. He has allowed 7 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts to Pittsburgh and Kansas City. He only has 30 K's in 44 1/3 innings this season so his 'stuff' isn't as good as his numbers. He has allowed 6 homers as well. Houston is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games after allowing 4 runs or fewer in four consecutive games. Milwaukee is 24-14 OVER against right-handed starters this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
05-19-24 | Mets -135 v. Marlins | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -135 I love the spot for the New York Mets today. They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Miami Marlins. They will be looking to bounce back especially after blowing a 4-run lead in the 9th yesterday. The Mets have a huge advantage on the mound today. Sean Manaea is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four road starts. Sixto Sanchez is 0-0 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 26 base runners in 15 1/3 innings. Sanchez is one of the worst starters in all of baseball. The Marlins are 1-15 against left-handed starters this season and hitting .211 while scoring just 2.7 runs per game in those 16 games. Bet the Mets Sunday. |
|||||||
05-19-24 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Blue Jays OVER 8 The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten healthy offensively and are raking at the plate as a result. They have scored at least 4 runs in eight consecutive games. I expect both teams to score 4-plus runs today against these two awful starting pitchers. Alek Manoah went 3-9 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 starts last season. Manoah is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in two starts this season, already allowing 3 homers in 11 innings. Manoah is 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA in his last two starts against the Rays, allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 7 2/3 innings. Aaron Civale is 2-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in nine starts for the Rays this season. Civale has been at his worst on the road, going 1-1 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 19 innings. Civale is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. The OVER is 13-3 in Manoah's last 16 home starts against division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
05-18-24 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Reds/Dodgers OVER 8 The Los Angeles Dodgers are 18-6 in their last 24 games overall with 16 wins by 2 runs or more. They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season. They face a Cincinnati Reds team that is heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last six games. Graham Ashcraft is 3-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in eight starts for the Reds this season while allowing 7 homers in 43 2/3 innings with only 35 K's. He has really struggled in his last two starts, allowing 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 19 base runners in 9 innings. Walker Buehler is making is way back from Tommy John surgery and is nowhere near 100%. He is 0-1 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings. He will remain on a pitch count and shaky in his 3rd start of the season today. The Dodgers are 14-2 OVER in home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs this season. Cincinnati is 8-0 OVER in its last eight road games vs. teams that strand 7.5 or more base runners per game. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
05-18-24 | Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 210.5 | Top | 116-117 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 40 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 210.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses. Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities. This has been a dead nuts UNDER series between two of the best defenses in these playoffs. The UNDER is 4-1 in the first five games in this series with 206, 196 and 196 combined points in the last three meetings. The Mavericks have surrounded Doncic and Irving with elite defenders like Gafford, Lively, Washington and Jones Jr. That has been the key to their success in the 2nd half of the season. The Thunder haven't topped 101 points in any of the last three games and are getting little help outside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder have been dynamite in these playoffs defensively allowing 96 or fewer points in six of their nine playoff games. They have allowed 105 points or fewer in eight of those nine. I don't see either team topping 105 points in Game 6. Dallas is 12-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Saturday. |
|||||||
05-18-24 | A's v. Royals -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
15* AL Saturday BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+110) The Oakland A's are back to reality, which is one of the worst teams in baseball. They are 0-6 in their last six games overall and have scored a total of 10 runs during this 6-game skid, or an average of just 1.7 runs per game. The Kansas City Royals are 27-19 this season, including 16-8 at home where they are scoring 5.0 runs per game. It won't get any easier for the A's at the plate today against one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Seth Lugo. He is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine starts this season while allowing just 12 earned runs in 59 2/3 innings. I'll gladly fade Ross Stripling, who is 1-7 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in nine starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 72 base runners in 47 innings. Stripling is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four road starts as well. Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center tonight in Kansas City, giving the Royals an even better chance of winning this game by multiple runs. Oakland is 2-14 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season and getting outscored by 3.7 runs per game in this spot. Lugo's teams are 22-4 in his 26 career starts against teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game and outscoring them by 2.5 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Royals on the Run Line Saturday. |
|||||||
05-18-24 | Pirates v. Cubs -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NL Saturday BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+110) The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory today. They have lost the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates up against their two best starting pitchers against two of their worst. Now there's a role reversal, and the untouchable Shota Imanaga will take down the awful Bailey Salters in Game 3 today. Imanaga is 5-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings. Falter is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts, allowing 8 homers in 43 1/3 innings with only 27 K's. Falter is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four road starts as well. He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts against them. His teams are 0-4 in those four starts. The Cubs are 10-3 when playing with double revenge this season. Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday. |
|||||||
05-18-24 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8 | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Pirates/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8 Conditions look good for a slug fest in Chicago at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field this afternoon. Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left. The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own against Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter. Falter is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts this season, allowing 8 homers in 43 1/3 innings with only 27 K's. Falter is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four road starts as well. He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts against them. No question Shota Imanaga's numbers are impressive this season for the Cubs. But he has been fortunate to have the ERA and WHIP he has to this point according to the advanced analytics. He is due some negative regression especially with how many runners he puts on base. The OVER is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Pirates and Cubs with 9 or more combined runs in all 10 meetings, including 11 or more combined runs in seven of those. Pittsburgh is 11-3 OVER in road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-6 in their last 23 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more. They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season. They will be highly motivated for a victory off two consecutive losses, including an upset loss as -305 favorites in Game 1 to the Reds yesterday. The Cincinnati Reds are a mess right now. They have gone 3-12 in their last 15 games overall. A big reason for their struggles is injuries up and down their lineup as they are struggling to score runs. They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of those 15 games, including 2 runs or fewer in seven of those. The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mount tonight behind James Paxton, who is 5-0 with a 2.58 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in three home starts. Paxton held the Reds to one run in 5 innings in his lone career start against them last season. Frankie Montas is 2-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 12 1/3 innings away from home. Montas is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings. The Dodgers are 28-7 in their last 35 games off a loss by 4 runs or more and outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Reds/Dodgers OVER 8.5 The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-6 in their last 23 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more. They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season. They face a Cincinnati Reds team that is heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last five games. Frankie Montas is 2-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 12 1/3 innings away from home. Montas is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings. James Paxton is very fortunate to have a 2.58 ERA this season when you consider he has a 1.41 WHIP and has already allowed 24 walks in 38 1/3 innings with only 22 K's. His stuff isn't very great, and he will get hit hard soon. The Dodgers are 13-2 OVER in home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | Brewers -105 v. Astros | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -105 The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the most underrated lineups in the big leagues. They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season. They have the rest advantage over the Houston Astros after having yesterday off. They also have a massive advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result. Freddy Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts this season with 58 K's in 44 2/3 innings and only 4 homers allowed. He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in baseball in Hunter Brown, who is 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in seven starts this season. Brown has already allowed 27 earned runs and 60 base runners in 27 1/3 innings. Milwaukee is 7-0 in Friday games this season. The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six road games against AL West opponents. Bet the Brewers Friday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | Padres v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Braves OVER 8 The Atlanta Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball. They are scoring 4.8 runs per game despite disappointing seasons thus far for many of their top hitters. It's only a matter of time before they start raking consistently. The Padres are hitting .282 and scoring 5.4 runs per game on the road this season. The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own tonight. Matt Waldron is the worst starter for the Padres, going 1-5 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts. He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in. Max Fried is getting too much respect from the books here. He is 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in two home starts. Fried allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings of an 11-6 loss to the Padres in his last home start against them. San Diego is a perfect 11-0 OVER off three consecutive division games this season. Fried is a perfect 11-0 OVER in his 11 career Friday night home starts. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | Twins v. Guardians -115 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians -115 The Minnesota Twins were just outscored 14-1 in their 3-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees. They had to play yesterday while the Cleveland Guardians had Thursday off, giving them a big rest advantage. The Guardians also have the advantage on the mound today and should be bigger favorites as a result. Triston McKenzie has posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. McKenzie has owned the Twins, posting a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing just 3 earned runs in 19 innings with 23 K's. Simeon Woods-Richardson is getting way too much respect from the books today. He just allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his last start. He has gotten to face Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox in his only three starts this season, which are three of the worst offenses in baseball. This is a big step up in class for him here tonight. Bet the Guardians Friday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Yankees OVER 7.5 This total is too low tonight for these two offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers inside hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. I'll gladly back the OVER in a game the Yankees are capable of covering the total on their own. The Yankees have scored a total of 24 runs in their last four games overall for an average of 6.0 runs per game. They should feast on Mike Clevinger, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 6 2/3 innings. Nestor Cortes is one of the more overrated starters in baseball. He is 1-4 with a 4.03 ERA in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA in his last three. The White Sox are heating up at the plate which is a big reason they have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-17-24 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 105 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
20* Pirates/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5 Kyle Hendricks should not be pitching in a game with a total of 7.5 or less. Hendricks is 0-3 with a 10.04 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in six starts this season while allowing 29 earned runs and 9 homers in 26 innings. Paul Skenes is the top prospect in baseball which is why this total is so low. But with the hype comes expectations that are tough for him to live up to. We saw that in his major league debut against the Cubs on May 11th. He allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings. Now the Cubs get to see him for the 2nd time in a week, which is to their advantage. The OVER is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between the Pirates and Cubs with 9 or more combined runs in all nine meetings, including 11 or more combined runs in six of those. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
05-16-24 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-145) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more. They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season. The Cincinnati Reds are a mess right now. They have gone 2-12 in their last 14 games overall. A big reason for their struggles is injuries up and down their lineup as they are struggling to score runs. They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 games, including 2 runs or fewer in seven of those. Tyler Glasnow is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young this year. Glasnow is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.86 WHIP while allowing just 16 earned runs and 49 base runners in 57 innings with a whopping 73 K's. He'll be opposed by Brent Suter, who will be making his first start of the season for the Reds, who will be making this a bullpen game. Suter is 0-2 with a 17.34 ERA and 3.43 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 9 earned runs and 16 base runners in 4 2/3 innings. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday. |
|||||||
05-16-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | Top | 70-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -2 We are getting the Minnesota Timberwolves at a discount tonight after losing the last three games of this series. This has been the most resilient team in the NBA this season as that was actually the first time they have lost three consecutive games all season. I trust their resolve here to get the job done in Game 6 at home and force a Game 7. Mike Conley Jr. was a surprise scratch in Game 5 with an Achilles injury. I think they played it cautious knowing their season wasn't on the line and that they would have a Game 6 at home. Conley was present a shootaround today. He makes all the difference for this team and takes a lot of pressure off Anthony Edwards Jr. They need him to run the offense, space the floor and his elite defense on the other end. The Nuggets can't keep up this torrid shooting against the best defense in the NBA in the Timberwolves. They shot 53.7% in Game 3, 57% in Game 4 and 55% in Game 5. That includes a combined 36-of-77 (46.8%) from 3-point range in those three wins. They are due some negative shooting regression to say the least. Denver is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off three or more consecutive wins. Minnesota is 46-28 ATS in its last 74 games when revenging a loss. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 6 Thursday. |
|||||||
05-16-24 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Phillies OVER 8 The Philadelphia Phillies are hitting the cover off the ball right now. They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall. The New York Mets have scored at least 4 runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. I expect both teams to get to 4-plus runs against these two suspect starting pitchers. Jose Quintana is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four road starts. Quintana has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies. Taijaun Walker is 3-0 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts this season, already allowing 4 homers in 18 2/3 innings. Walker allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Mets. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
05-15-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 55 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder showed they weren't too young and inexperienced for the moment in Game 4. Trailing 2-1 in the series and down double-digits in the 2H, the Thunder easily could have folded. Instead they fought back and won 100-96 to tie the series at 2-2 to regain home-court advantage. That type of win is going to give the Thunder a ton of confidence moving forward, especially the way they did it. They did it with defense mostly holding the Mavericks to 96 points. They won the game despite shooting 38% from the field and 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the team on his back down the stretch. I can guarantee you the Thunder will shoot much better as a team in Game 5 at home. Expect much better production from role players, and for Shai to do his thing. Their defense will be there as well, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for Game 5 with these fans excited about this team and their potential to win a title. I love how they play as a team and the entire team took the postgame interview in Game 4. You can tell they just love playing for each other. Luke Doncic is not 100% and he and Kyrie Irving both had poor games in Game 4 combining for just 27 points. No team in the NBA defends Doncic and Irving as well as the Thunder, and the Mavericks just don't have the role players to beat them. PJ Washington has done his part but it's unlikely he tops 20 points for a 4th consecutive game. Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a combined score of 205 points or fewer. Oklahoma City is 36-9 SU & 29-16 ATS at home this season. Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-15-24 | Cubs +160 v. Braves | 7-1 | Win | 160 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +160 The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory after getting shut out by the Braves for a 2nd consecutive day. They will want to avoid the sweep, and I expect them to finally get their bats going today. I also expect Javier Assad to shut down the Braves. Assad has the best ERA in all of baseball since last June. He is 3-0 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight starts this season. Charlie Morton is off to a good start for the Braves and he's a notorious slow starter. But Morton is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 18 career starts against Chicago. He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Cubs in his lone start against them last season. The Cubs are 10-3 (+11.5 Units) in Assad's last 13 starts as an underdog, including 7-1 (+8.8 Units) in his last eight starts as a dog of +125 to +175. Bet the Cubs Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-15-24 | Rays +118 v. Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 118 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +118 The Tampa Bay Rays just got several key hitters back from injury. They have gone 7-4 in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in seven of those 11 games. The Boston Red Sox have several hitters sitting due to injury and are really struggling at the plate. They are averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last seven games. Tanner Houck has never beaten the Rays, going 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in three career starts against them. He has allowed 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 13 innings in those three starts. The Rays should stay hot at the plate against him tonight. Taj Bradley was dominant in his first start this season. He held the Yankees to one earned run in 6 innings with 7 K's in a 2-0 loss on May 10th. I expect him to shut down the Red Sox tonight. Boston is 7-19 in its last 26 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The Rays are 24-10 in their last 34 meetings with the Red Sox. Bet the Rays Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-15-24 | Royals +135 v. Mariners | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals +135 The Kansas City Royals are one of the most improved teams in baseball this season. They are 26-18 and grossly undervalued. They should not be +135 underdogs to the Seattle Mariners today. Speaking of undervalued, Kansas City starter Alec Marsh is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts this season. He has been dominant in his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while allowing just one earned run in 15 1/3 innings. Bryan Woo will be making his just 2nd start of the season. He pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings against the lowly Oakland A's in his first start and will be on a pitch count again, meaning the Mariners will have to dip into their bullpen early. The Royals are 6-0 (+7.3 Units) in Marsh's six starts this season. Kansas City is 19-7 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season. Bet the Royals Wednesday. |
|||||||
05-14-24 | Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 29 m | Show |
20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +4.5 Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS and I fully expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to go on the road and pull the outright upset over the Nuggets tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance. The Nuggets got a 3-day break to regroup following losing the first two games of this series at home. That break was huge, and they made some adjustments plus shot the lights out the last two games. They aren't going to keep shooting it this well, and the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression. The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the field and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3 in Game 3 and 57% and 13-of-29 (44.8%) from 3 in Game 4. Aaron Gordon shot 11-of-12 from the field in Game 4 while three bench players in Braun, Holiday and Jackson combined for make 6-of-9 from 3. None of those players are going to shoot it as well again in Game 5. Everyone outside of Anthony Edwards played pretty poorly in Game 4. I expect him to be dominant again and to also get some help. His teammates shot a combined 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in Game 4. Expect more from Towns and Alexander-Walker in particular in Game 5. Minnesota is 11-1 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. The Timberwolves have been very resilient and I think they are ready for this moment in this critical game with the series tied at 2-2. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-14-24 | Royals +145 v. Mariners | 4-2 | Win | 145 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +145 The value on the Kansas City Royals is too good to pass up tonight. The Royals are one of the most improved teams in baseball at 25-18 this season and have been underrated all season. They continue to be as +145 underdogs to the Seattle Mariners tonight. Michael Wacha has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the last couple seasons. He held the Angels to 2 earned runs in 6 innings of a 10-4 victory in his last start. Wacha fired 6 shutout innings in a 10-3 victory over the Mariners in his last start against them last season. Logan Gilbert is getting way too much respect for the Mariners tonight. He just allowed 8 earned runs in 4 innings of an 11-1 loss to the Twins in his last start. Gilbert has posted a 5.27 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City, allowing 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 27 1/3 innings. Kansas City is 18-7 vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season. Wacha's teams are 18-5 in his last 23 starts vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game. Wacha's teams are 24-7 in his last 31 starts following a loss. The Mariners are 2-7 (-9.4 Units) in Gilbert's last nine home starts in the first half of the season. Bet the Royals Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-14-24 | A's v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Astros OVER 8.5 This total is too low tonight with these two offenses red hot at the plate right now. The OVER is 9-1 in A's last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games. The A's are scoring 6.8 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall including 9 runs in Game 1 last night. JP Sears is 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA in eight starts this season. Sears is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 1/3 innings. Sears is 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA in three career starts against Houston. He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros. Ronel Blanco is getting too much respect because he threw a no-hitter earlier this season. Blanco has vcome back down to reality of late going 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings. Both starters have the propensity to give up the long ball. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-14-24 | Cubs +178 v. Braves | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +178 The value on the Chicago Cubs is too good to pass up tonight. After losing Game 1 by a final of 2-0 last night, I expect them to bounce back and pull off the upset victory in Game 2 tonight. Jameson Taillon is 3-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 3 earned runs in 24 innings. He is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Taillon is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta as well. Chris Sale is having his best season in years at 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts this season. But I doubt he can keep up this pace. Plus, the Cubs thrive against southpaws, scoring 6.0 runs per game this season against left-handed starters. Taillon's teams are 25-17 (+15.7 Units) in his 42 career starts as a road underdog. Taillon's teams are 12-1 (+11.6 Units) in his last 13 starts after allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts. Bet the Cubs Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-13-24 | Thunder +2 v. Mavs | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2 The Oklahoma City Thunder are fully healthy and highly motivated for a victory after losing their first two games of these playoffs. They will make some good adjustments tonight to play Holmgren and Williams together more that will help them protect the rim and rebound. Josh Giddey's minutes will be restricted, and Isaiah Joe will likely get more minutes which is their optimal lineup. Luka Doncic is clearly nursing a knee injury and seems to get hurt in every game. He is far from 100%. Without him at 100%, the Mavericks aren't better than the Thunder. PJ Washington has been dynamite from 3 the last two games and that's not going to last either. I fully expect the Thunder to take Game 4 tonight and even this series. Oklahoma City is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Monday. |
|||||||
05-13-24 | A's v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on A's/Astros OVER 8.5 This total is too low for a game involving these two terrible starting pitchers up against these two lineups. The OVER is 8-1 in A's last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games. The A's are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last nine games. The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five games overall. Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season and it's amazing the Astros are throwing him back out there again tonight. Arrighetti is 0-4 with an 8.43 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 43 base runners in 21 1/3 innings. Ross Stripling is 1-6 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs and 66 base runners in 42 innings. He is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three road starts as well. Houston is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 Monday games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
05-13-24 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 7.5 The Baltimore Orioles have one of the most potent lineups in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game this season. The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 4.7 runs per game in their last seven games and are heating up at the plate. Temps are expected to be in the 70's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Baltimore tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket. The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own. They should crush Jose Berrios, who allowed 8 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss at Philadelphia in his last start. Berrios allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings to the Orioles in his last start against them. Corbin Burnes has been solid for the Orioles this season at 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in eight starts. But this total is so low because he is starting. Burnes allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 7 2/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone career start against them. The ball will be flying out of the park tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
05-12-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -2 Anthony Edwards admitted he and his teammates did not show up for the fight in Game 3. He guaranteed they will be ready for Game 4, and I believe him. The Timberwolves will regain control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 4. The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the floor in Game 3 and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range. The Timberwolves shot 43.7% from the floor and 10-of-33 (30.3%) from 3. Denver is due some negative shooting regression, while Minnesota is due some positive shooting regression. Give the Nuggets credit for showing championship metal in Game 3 when they easily could have folded. But they are dealing with injuries to Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson. Minnesota is fully healthy and the better team when that's the case. The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season. They have been a very resilient team in this spot. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Sunday. |
|||||||
05-12-24 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
20* Braves/Mets ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 The Atlanta Braves are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season while the New York Mets are scoring 4.3 runs per game. After both offenses were held in check in the first two meetings in this series, I expect them both to have a lot of success at the plate tonight in Game 3. Bryce Elder is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in three starts for the Braves this season. He allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 11 base runners in 3 1/3 innings to the Dodgers in his last start. Elder has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 1/3 innings in two career starts against New York. Luis Severino is getting way too much respect from the books tonight. He allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Rays in his last start on May 5th. Severino allowed 5 runs, 3 earned and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Braves in his last start against them last season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
05-12-24 | Royals -123 v. Angels | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -123 The Kansas City Royals have big advantages on the mound and at the plate today over the Los Angeles Angels and should be bigger favorites as a result. The Angels are in a world of hurt without Mike Trout and a few other key bats in their lineup. Seth Lugo has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past couple seasons. Lugo is 5-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in three road starts. Lugo held the Angels to one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-3 victory in his lone career start against them last season. Patrick Sandoval is 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts for the Angels this season. The Royals are scoring 4.6 runs per game overall including 4.6 runs per game against left-handed starters. The Angels are scoring just 3.9 runs per game against right-handed starters. The Angels are 1-11 in Sandoval's last 12 home starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5 runs. The Angels are 1-11 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season. Lugo's teams are 21-4 in his last 25 starts against teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game. The Angels are 1-12 in Sandoval's last 13 starts against good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game. Bet the Royals Sunday. |
|||||||
05-12-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 89-121 | Win | 100 | 41 h 46 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana -5.5 The New York Knicks are running out of gas. They played their starters big minutes all season and even bigger minutes in the playoffs. They paid the price with the injury to OG Anunoby that kept him out in Game 3 and likely will keep him out in Game 4 as well. Jalen Brunson is playing through injury, and the Knicks are forced to give guys like McBride and Burks minutes off the bench that they probably do not deserve. Give the Knicks credit for fighting hard in Game 3 and only losing by 5 in a valiant effort. But now this is a very tough turnaround for the Knicks with only one day off in between games and having to play an early Sunday afternoon game. The Pacers are the fresher team with one of the deepest benches in the league, so this situation really favors them. Plus, the Knicks lost by 5 despite shooting 14-of-27 (51.9%) from 3-point range in Game 3. DiVencenzo shot 7-of-11 himself. They aren't going to shoot that well again, and as a result it should be a blowout in the Pacers' favor. If you have watched every game of this series like I have, you could easily make a case that the Pacers could be up 3-0 in this series instead of down 2-1. They are arguably the better team, and with the situation and injuries in their favor, I anticipate a blowout victory in Game 4 to even this series. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Sunday. |
|||||||
05-12-24 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Pirates OVER 8.5 The Pirates beat the Cubs 10-9 yesterday for 19 combined runs. Both teams should stay hot at the plate against these two awful starting pitchers. Plus, there are expected to be double-digit winds blowing out to center this afternoon in Pittsburgh to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket. Kyle Hendricks has been arguably the worst starter in baseball. He is 0-3 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 28 earned runs, 8 homers and 44 base runners in 21 innings. Bailey Falter is 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA in seven starts for the Pirates, allowing 7 homers in 37 1/3 innings. He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against two of the worst offenses in baseball in Colorado at home and Oakland on the road. Falter is 0-3 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago, allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 2/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
05-12-24 | Diamondbacks v. Orioles -118 | 9-2 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -118 The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage at the plate today over the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season, while the Diamondbacks are scoring just 3.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. I also love what I've seen from Dean Kremer, especially of late. Kremer is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in seven starts this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 18 1/3 innings with 20 K's. Zac Gallen is getting too much respect from the books here. He has huge home/road splits in his career and that's the case again this season. Gallen is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in four road starts this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 21 innings. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Orioles in his lone career start against them last season. The Orioles are 18-4 in Kremer's last 22 home starts. Bet the Orioles Sunday. |
|||||||
05-11-24 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Dodgers OVER 8.5 Both offenses were red hot coming into Game 1 of this series last night. Tyler Glasnow and Michael King held both offenses in check. But it will be a different story tonight as these offenses light up these two below average starters in Game 2. Matt Waldron is 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP In seven starts for the Padres this season, including 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in three home starts. He has allowed 22 earned runs and 53 base runners in 34 innings this season. James Paxton is very fortunate to have a 3.06 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in his six starts this season. He is getting away with walking a lot of batters as he has 24 walks in 32 1/3 innings with only 18 K's. He won't be so fortunate tonight. Paxton allowed 11 base runners in 5 innings in his lone start against the Padres earlier this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
05-11-24 | Diamondbacks v. Orioles -157 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -157 The Baltimore Orioles have big advantages at the plate and on the mound today over the Arizona Diamondbacks. They should be bigger favorites as a result. John Means has been dominant for the Orioles when healthy. Well, he is back to full strength now and proved it in his first start of the season on May 4th, pitching 7 shutout innings with 8 K's against the Cincinnati Reds. Ryne Nelson is 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Diamondbacks this season. He has allowed 12 earned runs and 33 base runners in 20 2/3 innings. He just returned from the IL to allow 4 earned runs in 5 innings to the Padres on May 5th. Bet the Orioles Saturday. |
|||||||
05-11-24 | Thunder +3 v. Mavs | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Mavericks ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3 The Dallas Mavericks responded in a big way in Game 2 by pulling the 119-110 upset as 5-point underdogs in Oklahoma City. They had just about everything go right for them in that game, and there's a lot of reasons I believe the Thunder return the favor in Game 3 and regain home-court advantage in this series. The Mavericks shot 18-of-37 (48.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and were still life and death with the Thunder. They got big games from role players in PJ Washington who scored 29 points and made 7-of-11 from 3. Tim Hardaway Jr. had 17 points and a bunch of clutch shots to stop Thunder runs. Those two aren't going to be nearly as good in Game 3. Luka Doncic had a big 1st quarter and finished 5-of-8 from 3 after previously struggling from distance in these playoffs. But he is banged up and far from 100%, and without him at 100% it's a huge blow. Kyrie Irving is struggling to get good shots because the Thunder are defending him very well, and Lu Dort defends Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA. This is a very quick turnaround from Thursday with tip set for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon in Dallas. Well, the Thunder are the much deeper team and they are fully healthy and better equipped to handle this short turnaround. Doncic and Irving both played more than 41 minutes Thursday and I think the quick turnaround hurts them because they are not very deep. Doncic and company won't have much left in the tank for this one, and they won't be able to match their Game 3 shooting performance. Oklahoma City is 53-32 ATS in its last 85 games as a road underdog. Plays on any team (OKC) - revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 171-106 (61.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday. |
|||||||
05-10-24 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105) The Los Angeles Dodgers are rolling right now going 14-2 in their last 16 games overall with 12 wins by two runs or more. They have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres that should have them winning this game by two runs or more. Tyler Glasnow is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award. He is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 innings with 29 K's. The Dodgers are 7-1 in his eight starts this season with six wins by two runs or more. I'll gladly fade Michael King, who has already allowed 9 homers in 38 2/3 innings this season. He is 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings. King faced the Dodgers earlier this season on April 12th, allowing 7 runs, 4 earned, and 4 homers in 5 innings. He will get lit up again tonight. San Diego is 2-10 in home games in night games this season and getting outscored by 3.0 runs per game. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday. |
|||||||
05-10-24 | Royals -107 v. Angels | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -107 The Kansas City Royals have advantages on the mound and at the plate over the Los Angeles Angels tonight. I like the value we are getting on the Royals at basically even money in Game 2 of this series off their 10-4 win in Game 1. Alec Marsh takes a big step down in class here against an Angels lineup that is in a world of hurt right now without Mike Trout and a few others due to injury. Marsh is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts this season. He has pitched 10 shutout innings in his last two starts against Baltimore and Toronto. I'll gladly fade Griffin Canning, who is 1-4 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 6 homers in 35 innings. Canning is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in three home starts this season. The Angels are 1-10 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season. The Royals are 16-5 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season. Kansas City is 11-2 against teams with a bad bullpen with a 4.70 ERA or worse this season. Bet the Royals Friday. |
|||||||
05-10-24 | Phillies -1.5 v. Marlins | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110) The Philadelphia Phillies are the hottest team in baseball going 18-4 in their last 22 games overall with 13 wins by two runs or more. I fully expect them to win this game against the Miami Marlins by multiple runs tonight. The Marlins have the second-worst record in baseball this season at 10-29. They have gone 4-12 in their last 16 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more. Ranger Suarez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He has gone 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in seven starts this season allowing just 9 earned runs and 34 base runners in 47 innings. The Phillies are 7-0 in his seven starts this season with six wins by 3 runs or more. Suarez is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA in seven career starts against Miami. Trevor Rogers is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 23 earned runs and 58 base runners in 33 2/3 innings. The Marlins are 0-8 in Rogers' last eight starts with all eight losses coming by two runs or more. Rogers is 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies. The Phillies are 13-2 in Suarez's last 15 road starts in the first half of the season. The Marlins are 0-10 in Rogers' last 10 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs and getting outscored by 4.9 runs per game in this spot. Miami is 2-17 in Rogers' last 19 starts off a loss. Philadelphia is 8-0 in Suarez's last eight starts against an NL team with a .245 batting average or worse. Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Friday. |
|||||||
05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5 I grabbed the opener at -4.5 on the Pacers as soon as this line came out after Game 2 concluded Wednesday night. I did so with the anticipation that the line would move toward the Pacers considering all the injuries the Knicks are dealing with right now. So hopefully long-term clients grabbed the best line they could find early. This line has ballooned to Pacers 7/-7.5 as of Thursday. It would still be a 25* up to -6, but a 20* at anything higher. I think the Pacers win this game in a blowout and likely cover all numbers given the spot and the injuries to the Knicks. The Knicks were already short-handed without Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic. Now OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury in Game 2 and sat out the 4th quarter. Chances are he'll sit out Game 3, too. Anunoby has been the key to their success since the trade and had 28 points in the first three quarters. Jalen Brunson sat out the 2nd quarter with an injured foot, but returned in the 2H to lead the comeback victory from double-digits down in Game 2. He's not 100% and the Knicks could even elect to rest him in Game 3, though that's unlikely. Tom Thibodeu is going to be forced to give McBride, Achiuwa and Burks more minutes than he wants to. I think the Knicks will be satisfied with the fact that they held serve at home by coming up clutch in the final minutes of both Game 1 and Game 2, but also getting a lot of help from the refs. I think the Knicks will have a letdown in Game 3, while we get a max effort from the Pacers knowing they are not out of this series with all the injuries to the Knicks. Plus, they will likely get the benefit of the whistle in Game 3 at home due to all the negative publicity the refs have received for their favoritism of the Knicks in the first two games. The fact of the matter is the Pacers are every bit as good as the Knicks and easily could have won both games in New York. They just didn't execute late and didn't get any help from the refs, either. Their depth is their biggest asset, and that will be on display here in Game 3. There will only be one day in between Games 2 and 3 for the Knicks to recover, and that's not enough given their current injury situation. The Pacers have been picking up full court and playing at a break-neck pace, which will pay dividends for them the longer this series goes with how short-handed the Knicks are. I think the Knicks finally break and get blown out in Game 3. Bet the Pacers Friday. |
|||||||
05-10-24 | Diamondbacks v. Orioles -118 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -118 The Baltimore Orioles are 24-12 this season and one of the best teams in baseball. They should be much bigger favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks today given their rest advantage and their advantage on the mound. The Orioles had yesterday off while the Diamondbacks completed their 3-game series in Cincinnati yesterday and now have to travel to Baltimore. Cole Irvin is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six starts for the Orioles this season, allowing just 2 homers in 34 2/3 innings. He has been unhittable in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.60 WHIP while pitching 20 shutout innings and allowing just 12 base runners. Brandon Pfaadt has been a major disappointment for the Diamondbacks in his two seasons in big leagues not living up to the hype. Pfaadt is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 5 homers in 41 innings. The Orioles will tag him tonight. The Orioles are 15-2 with a money line of +125 to -125 this season. We are getting tremendous value on Baltimore tonight. Bet the Orioles Friday. |
|||||||
05-09-24 | Royals -111 v. Angels | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Royals/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -111 The Kansas City Royals have advantages on the mound and at the plate over the Los Angeles Angels tonight. I like the value we are getting on the Royals at basically even money in Game 1 of this series. Michael Wacha takes a big step down in class here against an Angels lineup that is in a world of hurt right now without Mike Trout and a few others due to injury. Wacha has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 20 2/3 innings. Reid Detmers has come back down to reality in a big way of late. The left-hander is 0-3 with an 8.15 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing a whopping 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings. Detmers has posted a 5.90 ERA in two career starts against the Royals, allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings. The Angels are 1-9 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season. The Royals are 15-5 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season. Kansas City is 10-2 against teams with a bad bullpen with a 4.70 ERA or worse this season. Bet the Royals Thursday. |
|||||||
05-09-24 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 211.5 | Top | 118-94 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 211.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers are without their most important defender in Jarrett Allen. They have had to play a lot more small ball without him, and it has made them a better offensive team but a much worse defensive team. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in Game 2 tonight. The OVER is 3-1 in Cavaliers last four games without Allen with the one under staying under by just 2 points. Game 1 went OVER in this series despite the Cavaliers shooting just 41.1% overall and 11-of-42 (26.2%) from 3-point range. They came into this series tired after their 7-game series with the Magic. They should be fresher and shoot better in Game 2 as a result. The Cavaliers and Celtics have combined for at least 212 points in eight of their last nine meetings with the lone exception being 209. That makes for an 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 211.5-point total. Boston is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 points. The Celtics are 11-3 OVER after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games this season. Bet the OVER in Game 2 Thursday. |
|||||||
05-09-24 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
15* Astros/Yankees AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8 The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now. They have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games and a total of 29 runs in those four games. They beat the Astros 10-3 in Game 1 and 9-4 in Game 2 and are fully capable of covering this total on their own. The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall, including 8 runs or more four times during this stretch. I think they will do enough to contribute to us cashing this OVER 8 ticket tonight. Two reeling starting pitchers square off in this one. Ronel Blanco has come back down to reality after throwing a no-hitter earlier this season. He has allowed 4 homers in his last three starts. Marcus Stroman is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 27 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. The Astros and Yankees have combined for at least 7 runs in 10 consecutive meetings, including 8 runs or more in eight of those 10. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |