15* Yankees/Red Sox AL East ANNIHILATOR on Boston -106

The Boston Red Sox are showing great value as only -106 home favorites over the rival New York Yankees Wednesday.  Rarely ever will you get the Red Sox at this kind of price at home, especially with 2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello on the mound.

But Porcello is undervalued due to a sub-par start to the season that won't last.  He is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA through four starts, but he's really only had one bad start when he gave up eight earned runs to the Rays.  Porcello is 7-6 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Yankees, including 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 53 innings.

Luis Severino is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  He's 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA in three starts this season.  But Severino has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA in three career starts against them.  We'll take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank tonight.

Severino is 1-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Porcello is 16-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are 3-12 in Severino's last 15 starts overall.  Take the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers did not play up to their standards defensively in Utah, giving up 52.2% shooting and 106 points in Game 3, and 54.1% and 105 points in Game 4.  They still managed to split 1-1 and easily could have won both.  Look for them to be much better on defense when they return home for a huge Game 5 Tuesday night.

The Jazz are in trouble right now because they are relying too much on the likes of Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles to make plays for them.  Johnson, Ingles and Rodney Hood caught fire late in Game 4 to erase an 8-point deficit in the 4th and win, but that's unlikely to happen again in Utah.

Rudy Gobert isn't 100%, and Gordon Hayward missed most of Game 4 due to food poisoning.  It's uncertain if Hayward will be back for Game 5, and even if he is he certainly won't be feeling anywhere near 100%.

The Clippers have had a huge home-court advantage all season, going 30-13 straight up.  They basically just have to win this game to cover the 3-point spread.  And they still own the Jazz, going 19-4 in their last 23 meetings.  I trust in veteran Chris Paul to lead this team to victory even without Blake Griffin as Paul is by far their most important player.

Utah is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 157-99 (61.3%) ATS since 1996.   The Jazz are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -157

The Arizona Diamondbacks want revenge on the San Diego Padres after losing two out of three to them last week.  Zach Greinke wants revenge on Jhoulys Chacin after an absolute pitcher's duel last week in which the Padres won 1-0.

Greinke is clearly the better starter here, going 1-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in four starts this season.  Chacin is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in four starts, including 0-2 with a 14.05 ERA and 2.641 WHIP in two road starts.

Greinke has owned the Padres throughout his career.  Indeed, he is 8-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.  The Diamondbacks are 8-2 at home this season, hitting .316 and scoring a whopping 7.4 runs per game.  The Padres are just 3-8 on the road, hitting .207 and scoring 3.0 runs per game.

Greinke is 80-23 (+39.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career.  Greinke is 34-7 (+24.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse in his career.  The Padres are 14-40 in their last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter.   Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta -2

I would argue that the Atlanta Hawks have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They were in both games in Washington in losses by 7 and 8 points before fading late.  Then they blew out the Wizards by 18 in Game 3, and now they actually are +3 in point differential in the series.

What I like about the Hawks is how aggressive they have been in getting to the basket.  They shot 39 free throws in Game 1, 38 in Game 2 and 32 in Game 3.  The Wizards haven't been able to keep Dennis Shroeder out of the paint as he's averaging 25 points in this series.  I also like how Schroeder picked Wall up defensively full court in Game 3, making it more difficult for the Wizards to get into their offense.

"I watched video," Schroder said. "The first two games it was too easy to just bring it up half-court and have all these passes. I told Coach I want to be in his stuff. I want to take him full court. That's what I did (Saturday), and it worked well."

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 4 Monday.

15* Clippers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT On Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz let the Los Angeles Clippers off the hook in Game 3.  The blew an 8-point lead late as Chris Paul simply took over down the stretch.  The Clippers rallied around each other after losing Blake Griffin to an injury, and they came through with a huge win.

But now it's the Jazz turn to get a big win here and get right back in this series.  They can't afford to go back to Los Angeles down 3-1.  I look for a big effort from them here behind a raucous home crowd.  The Jazz are 29-13 at home this season and have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.

Make no mistake, the Clippers aren't going anywhere now that Griffin is out for the rest of the postseason.  The Clippers just haven't been the same without him in the past, and they really can't afford to lose him, Paul or DeAndre Jordan.  The loss of Griffin for the Clippers is bigger than the loss of Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.

Utah is 37-16 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - off a home loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bulls Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were distracted with the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister in the first two games.  But he went home after Game 2 and spent time with his family to grieve.  In Game 3, players rallied around him and got back to focusing on basketball, and the end result was a dominant 104-87 win.

The Celtics also got a motivational speech from Kevin Garnett, the former Boston great.  Every player to a man said it was the difference, and I believe them.  But with the Celtics still having their backs against the wall, this Game 4 remains a must-win, and I think we see another big effort from them.

Boston got a break when Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2.  Now he's out indefinitely, and he was nearly averaging a triple-double in the first two games.  The Bulls simply don't have a good backup point guard, so Rondo's absence is huge for them.  It puts more pressure on Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to handle the ball, but they are much better playing off the ball and letting Rondo run the show.

The Bulls are just 3-10 in their last 13 playoff home games, including three straight losses.  I just don't think their home-court advantage is enough for them to overcome the loss of Rondo.  The Celtics are the far superior team in this matchup and that will be shown again in Game 4.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -110

The San Francisco Giants have lost three straight to fall to 6-12 on the season.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a win Sunday to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Jeff Samardzija hasn't been great in the early going, but he has faced Arizona twice and Colorado, two great lineups.  And he has had plenty of success against the Rockies, going 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Kyle Freeland has not fared well this season for the Rockies.  He is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in three starts, averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  He even gave up 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings at home to the lowly Padres in his last home start.

The Giants are 4-1 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Rockies are 1-6 in their last seven during game 3 of a series.  Roll with the Giants Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -110

The Philadelphia Phillies have a massive edge on the mound tonight.  We'll take advantage and back them as small home favorites over the Atlanta Braves in this one.

Jerad Eickhoff is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.118 WHIP through three starts this season.  Eickhoff has owned the Braves, going 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Jaime Garcia is far past his prime for the Braves.  It hasn't worked out for them thus far getting Garcia, who is 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in three starts this season.

Eickhoff is 8-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 15-42 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Atlanta is 1-6 in its last seven road games.  Take the Phillies Saturday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks were competitive in Games 1 and 2 in Washington, losing by 7 and 8 points.  They did not finish either game well as they had a chance to win down the stretch.  But now with their backs against the wall, I expect their best effort of the series as the head home for Game 3.

Adding to the Hawks' motivation is the fact that they have now lost five straight meetings with the Wizards dating back to the regular season.  It's safe to say that they are going to want this game more, and I expect them to get it in front of their home fans tonight.

Washington is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after two straight games where it committed 7 or fewer turnovers than its opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Clippers seemed to relax when Rudy Gobert went out with an injury in Game 1.  They lost that game on a buzzer-beater by Joe Johnson, but they came back focused in Game 2 and got the job done in a 99-91 victory.

Now Gobert remains out for the Jazz tonight, and it's a huge loss for them.  Look for the Clippers to seize the opportunity and take Game 3 to regain home-court advantage.  They are clearly the more talented team and still own the Jazz, going 19-3 SU in their last 22 meetings.

Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have all put up huge numbers through the first two games.  But the role players have really struggled, and they won't continue to.  Jamal Crawford is shooting a paltry 29.2% and is 0-for-9 from 3-point range.  J.J. Redick is averaging just 5.5 points and shooting 20% from 3-point range in this series.  Look for these two to be much more efficient moving forward.

Plays against underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 55-17 (76.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Clippers in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -118

The San Francisco Giants have gotten off to a poor 6-10 start this season.  I think they are undervalued right now because of it, and I like the price we are getting with them Friday as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies.

Johnny Cueto went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts in his first season in San Francisco last year.  He is 3-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in three starts in 2017.  Cueto has owned the Rockies, going 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.

The Rockies are overvalued right now due to their 10-6 start despite the fact that they are hitting just .224 and scoring 3.4 runs per game with an injury-ravaged lineup.  Their good fortune won't last as their starting rotation simply isn't as good as it has been through the first 16 games.

Cueto is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Cueto is 17-2 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  San Francisco is 26-10 in Cueto's last 36 starts overall.  Roll with the Giants Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

It is gut check time for the Boston Celtics in Game 3 tonight.  The Celtics inexplicably lost the first two games in this series at home, and now they know that their season is on the line tonight.  It's basically win or go home here.

The death of Isaiah Thomas' sister was a huge distraction in the first two games as the Celtics were clearly out of it.  But Thomas went home to his family after Game 2 to deal with it.  Now he'll come back with a clearer mind in Game 3, and I think the players will rally around him in one of their best efforts of the season.

The Celtics got a big break when it was announced that Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2 and is now out indefinitely.  There will be a huge void at the PG position for the Bulls now because Rondo was playing very well, averaging 11.5 points, 10.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.

The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Bulls are 10-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  Boston is 41-27 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -113

The St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded by winning three straight games to build some momentum after a slow start to the season.  Now they send their ace to the mound to take care of the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this series Thursday.

Carlos Martinez will be highly motivated for his first win of the season after an 0-2 start despite a 3.57 ERA through three starts this year.  Martinez owns the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 1.790 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Zach Davies has been awful in the early going for the Brewers.  He is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA and 2.024 WHIP through three starts.  Davies has allowed 14 earned runs and 29 base runners over 14 1/3 innings this year.

St. Louis is 17-5 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  Martinez is 15-3 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 19-8 in Martinez's last 27 road starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Davies' last five home starts.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are the worst road team in the playoffs.  However, they managed to take the Cavs down to the wire on the road in each of the first two games of this series, losing by 1 and 6 points, respectively.  Now they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win in Game 3 and get back in this series.

And they should do just that now that they are returning to Indiana, where they are one of the best home teams in the playoffs.  The Pacers have gone 29-12 at home this season.  They have now gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Cavaliers actually had a losing record on the road this season.  They went 20-21 SU & 17-24 ATS on the road this year.  The Pacers have gone 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Indiana.

Indiana is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on two days' rest.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Cavaliers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1.  They only managed 87 points and shot just 37% from the field.  Expect them to come back with a much better effort in Game 2 and to stay within the number as they try and steal this one.

"Looking at video, it was definitely down to positioning and getting those reads on when to go," Thunder center Steven Adams said. "You can't be premature about it, otherwise they do what they do. We cleared it up a lot more, bigs and guards. We've got to make sure we come out more aggressive, aggressive and physicality. Forcing them to do stuff rather than letting them do stuff."

Three of the four meetings during the regular season went right down to the wire and were decided by 3 points or less.  I expect this one to hold true to form and to go down to the last few possessions, so getting the Thunder are +8 is a huge value here.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -128

The New York Mets are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight coming in.  That includes a 2-6 loss in 10 innings last night after Jose Reyes dropped a routine fly ball that would have given the Mets the win.

Robert Gsellman is off to a poor start this year, but now he faced a team he has owned.  Gsellman has gone 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.  He gave up just one earned run in 13 innings while striking out 15 in his final two starts against the Phillies last season.

Vincent Velasquez is struggling as well, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in two starts this season.  He is 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA in four career starts against New York.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 4-5 loss to the Mets in his last start on April 12th.

The Phillies are 14-37 in their last 51 games following a win.  Philadelphia is 4-13 in its last 17 road games.  The Phillies are 1-10 in Velasquez's last 11 starts.  The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  New York is 39-16 in the last 55 meetings, and 15-6 in the last 21 home meetings.  Take the Mets Wednesday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Orioles/Reds OVER 9

The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field today at about 8 miles per hour.  That will aid the offenses as they feast on two overmatched starting pitchers in this game between the Orioles and Reds.

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the worst starters in baseball and it's amazing he's been able to keep his rotation spot in Baltimore.  He is 0-0 with a 10.39 ERA and 2.079 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

Amir Garrett has gotten off to a great start for the Reds, but it's only a small sample size.  He'll be up against a Baltimore team that has scored 35 combined runs in its last six games overall, an average of 5.8 runs per game.  The Reds have put up 5.1 runs per game on the season behind an underrated lineup.

Cincinnati is 18-6 to the OVER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 62% or greater over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 9-2 in Orioles last 11 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 14-6-1 in Jimenez's last 21 starts.  The OVER is 11-4 in Reds last 15 home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

After Rudy Gobert went out with an injury on the first possession of Game 1, the Clippers appeared to relax and think that they would win the game by just showing up.  That wasn't the case as the Jazz rallied around Gobert and stole Game 1.

I think that with that wake-up call, the Clippers will put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.  Gobert remains out for Game 2, meaning that the Clippers will have a massive advantage inside.  Look for monster games from Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in this one as Los Angeles evens this series in blowout fashion.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last several years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 18-3 in their last 21 meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 2-10 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Clippers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -130

I backed the St. Louis Cardinals with success yesterday and I'm going to jump back on them today at a reasonable price against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I like them to take this series and possibly sweep it giving the situation coming in.

The Pirates are in letdown mode after sweeping the defending champion Cubs over the weekend.  The Cardinals are extra motivated due to their 4-9 start this season which included a sweep at the hands of the Yankees over the weekend.

Mike Leake has been dominant in two starts for the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP while allowing only one earned run and 11 base runners in 15 innings.  Leake is 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA in 28 career starts against Pittsburgh.  Chad Kuhl is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 16-5 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Bets on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last five games, starting a pitcher who walked 1 or fewer hitters each of his last two outings are 105-34 (75.5%, +58.6 units) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -7

After losing Game 1 to the Bulls, I fully expect the Boston Celtics to bounce back in a big way in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game going away similar to their 100-80 home win over the Bulls in their final regular season meeting.

The Isaiah Thomas news with his sister passing away really was a down for this team.  Now that they've had a few extra days to cope with it, I think they'll come back more focused tonight and get back to playing their brand of basketball.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 9-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 16-30 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers know they can play with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They took them to double-OT in Cleveland in their final meeting of the regular season on April 2nd, and then they had a chance to win it at the buzzer in a 108-109 loss in Game 1 Saturday.

The Pacers had to win each of their final five regular season games just to make the playoffs.  They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs here in Game 2.

The Cavaliers actually have a losing record since the All-Star Break.  The betting public just thinks that they can turn it on the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be the case.  We'll make some good money fading them throughout the postseason.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinal Games.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Cleveland is 18-38-1 ATS in its last 57 vs. division opponents, while Indiana is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 vs. division foes.  The Pacers are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -130

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home from a 6-game road trip tonight.  They were just swept by the Yankees and have lost six of their last seven overall coming in.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a big letdown spot heading into Game 1 of this series.  They just swept the defending champion Cubs in Chicago over the weekend, which is a huge feat.  They won't be nearly as interested against the Cardinals tonight.

Lance Lynn is 13-2 against the money line in Monday games in his career.  Lynn is 22-5 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest in his career.  The Pirates are 0-7 in their last seven Monday games.  Take the Cardinals Monday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

Russell Westbrook got some much-needed rest over the final week of the regular season and will be ready to go in the playoffs.  That's important because the Thunder get outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions when he's not on the court, and outscore their opponents by 3 points per 100 when he is on the floor.

Westbrook only averages 34 minutes per game in the regular season.  That will be closer to 40 minutes in the postseason as Billy Donovan knows he needs Westbrook on the floor as much as possible.  That adjustment will make the Thunder a much better team throughout the course of a 48-minute game.

Yes, Houston won three of four meetings with OKC this season, but three of them were decided by 3 points or less.  I have a good feeling this game is going to go right down to the wire.  The Rockets come in playing their worst ball of the season, going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  I don't think they can just flip on the switch, either.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -123

The Minnesota Twins are a team I'm going to be looking to back a lot this season because I believe they are underrated by oddsmakers and the betting public.  They are off to a fast 7-4 start this season.  Look for them to take this series from the Chicago White Sox with a win in Game 3 Sunday.

Hector Santiago is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in two starts this season.  Santiago has owned the White Sox throughout his career, going 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in five starts against them.

James Shields is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He went 4-12 with a 6.77 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 22 starts for the White Sox last season.  That includes 0-2 with a 9.65 ERA in his last two starts against the Twins, giving up 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 1/3 innings.

Santiago is 12-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons.  The White Sox are 0-4 in Shields' last four road starts.  The Twins are 5-0 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Twins Sunday.

20* Jazz/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are the second-best team in the Western Conference when healthy in my opinion.  They battled through injuries to several key players this season, including Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, but now they are full healthy entering the playoffs.

And as they've chased down the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, they've played their best basketball of the season now healthy.  Indeed, the Clippers are 7-0 in their last seven games overall, including five straight double-digit victories.  They needed all seven wins to fend off the Jazz for the No. 4 seed.

The Jazz are an up-and-coming team that is going to be a playoff contender for the foreseeable future.  However, not many of the key players on the Jazz like Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward have playoff experience, so they will be at a disadvantage in that respect.

The Clippers simply own the Jazz, going 18-2 SU in the last 20 meetings.  They won three of four meetings this season all by 13 points or more.  Utah is 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

After getting embarrassed 10-5 at home by the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this series yesterday, I expect a motivated effort from the Boston Red Sox today.  They'll also be motivated to get Chris Sale his first win of the season.

It's only due to a lack of run support that Sale doesn't have a win yet.  After all, he has posted a 1.23 ERA and 0.682 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.

Jake Odorizzi has gone 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts this season for the Rays.  Odorizzi is 3-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 13 career starts against Boston.  Sale is 4-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is 4-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 2.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Pacers/Cavs 2017 NBA Playoffs Opener on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs.  They needed to win their final five games of the season just to get into the playoffs, and that's precisely what they did.  In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all five of their wins coming by 9 points or more.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone in the opposite direction.  Needing to win just two of their final four games to get the No. 1 seed in the East, they instead went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in those four contests.  They gave up at least 114 points in three of the four losses, and defense has been a problem with this team all season.

The Pacers were very competitive with the Cavaliers in the regular season.  They did go just 1-3 SU, but two of their losses came by single-digits, including the latest in double-overtime in Cleveland in a 130-135 loss on April 2nd.  They believe they can play with the Cavs, which is half the battle.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in road games when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -134

The Boston Red Sox were hit hard by the flu early in the season.  They were without Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez for multiple games, and they struggled in those contests.  But now their lineup is fully healthy aside from the injury to Jackie Bradley Jr.

2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello gets the ball tonight looking to continue his dominance of the Rays.  Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 17 career starts against Tampa Bay.

Chris Archer has struggled mightily against the Red Sox.  Indeed, Archer is 1-11 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  That's right, he has only won one of his 16 starts against Boston.

Porcello is 16-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  Archer is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Archer is 0-11 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last two seasons.  Bet the Red Sox Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -127

The Kansas City Royals have dropped each of the first two games of this series to Oakland to fall to 2-6 on the season.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and pick up their first home win of the season tonight against the A's.

Jason Vargas was dominant in his first start this season, giving up just one earned run over 6 innings of a 5-1 victory at Houston.  He has been unhittable in his last two home starts against the A's, pitching 18 shutout innings while allowing only eight base runners in the process.

Jesse Hahn will be making his first start of the season for the A's tonight.  He will be in over his head here against Vargas, who is 7-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 career outings, 18 of them starts, against Oakland.

Vargas is 10-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last three seasons.  Vargas is 33-12 (+18.1 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +5

The Denver Nuggets could have easily packed it in after getting eliminated from the playoffs with two games to go.  Instead, they went out and handled their business last night, dismantling the Mavericks 109-91 on the road.  Now they have a chance to get to 40 wins in their final game of the season, and I think they'll be the more motivated team here.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  Russell Westbrook rested in their last game, and he's unlikely to play many minutes tonight.  The Thunder are way more concerned about staying healthy and fresh for the playoffs than winning this game tonight.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, and I think that benefits the Nuggets more because they are the deeper team.  This situation will only force the Thunder to get as much rest as possible for their key players.

Denver is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -127

The Boston Red Sox are showing excellent value as small home favorites over the Baltimore Orioles today.  The Red Sox got hit by the flu over the past week, but now they are getting healthy and have both Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez back in the lineup today, which are their two best hitters.

Steven Wright has never lost to the Orioles, going 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs and 16 base runners over 16 1/3 innings in those two starts, both of which came last season.

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the worst starters in baseball, and it's amazing that he has been able to keep a rotation spot in Baltimore.  Jimenez is 2-7 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in 15 career starts against Boston.

Jimenez is 1-12 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Red Sox are 12-5 in Wright's last 17 starts, including 6-0 in his last six starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves just completed a brutal four-game road trip with trips to the Warriors, Blazers, Jazz and Lakers.  They were competitive the entire trip and clearly have not quit.  Now they return home to play their final home game of the season and will want to go out a winner in front of their fans.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the West.  Russell Westbrook just got his record-setting 42nd triple double last time out, so they don't need to focus on that either.  Don't be surprised one bit if Billy Donovan decided to rest his starters these final two games.

The line move in this game suggests that he will rest his starters, or at least limit their minutes.  The Timberwolves opened as -1 favorites and have already been bet up to -4, and I see it going much higher before the game starts.  It would be foolish of the Thunder to go all out in this game.

Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with OKC.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +128

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing excellent value as road underdogs to the Washington Nationals tonight.  The Cardinals need a win after opening 2-5 this season.  They were embarrassed 6-14 in Game 1 of this series and will show some resilience tonight.

Lance Lynn is back from Tommy John surgery and performed well in his first start, giving up 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs.  Lynn has never lost to the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Gio Gonzalez has been on the steady decline in recent years.  And Gonzalez has not fared well against the Cardinals of late, giving up 9 earned runs over 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them for a 7.59 ERA.

St. Louis is 14-1 (+15.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Gonzalez is 4-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Nationals are 1-9 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Monday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Clippers are tied with the Utah Jazz at 49-31.  These teams will play in the first round of the playoffs, but home-court advantage is still at stake.  The Clippers own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny here.

And the Clippers have certainly been fighting to make sure they get home court in the first round.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, winning all five games by at least 6 points, and four of those by 9 points or more.  They are hitting on all cylinders heading into the playoffs.

The Rockets have pretty much been locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West for a while now.  As a result, their play has suffered as they are just 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This game means absolutely nothing to them, and they could rest players since they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  This will be just the 3rd game in 9 days for the Clippers.

The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* Dodgers/Cubs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -142

After playing six straight road games to open the season, the Chicago Cubs get to play their home opener tonight.  This will be a special night with their World Series banner getting raised in what will be a rowdy atmosphere at Wrigley Field.

Jon Lester allowed one run in five innings in his opener against the Cardinals.  He is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in seven career starts against the Dodgers.  He held them to just 3 earned runs over 28 innings for a 0.96 ERA in four starts against them last season.

The Dodgers are notorious for struggling against left-handed starters.  The Dodgers ranked 30th in the majors in average (.213), on-base percentage (.290) and slugging (.332) against southpaws in 2016.  Don't expect their lefty-heavy lineup to be much better against them in 2017.  San Diego lefty Clayton Richard beat them 4-0 and Freeland of the Rockies beat them 2-1 already this season.

Jon Lester is 16-1 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  Lester is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game  on the season in his career.  The Dodgers are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 1-7 in Alex Wood's last seven road starts.  The Cubs are 10-1 in Lester's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Cubs Monday.

15* Marlins/Mets ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York -165

The New York Mets have lost their first two games of this series to the Miami Marlins by a combined score of 3-15.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory to avoid the sweep today, especially playing on ESPN's Sunday Night baseball.

Now the Mets send ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound to take care of business.  He is becoming one of the best starters in baseball, going 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 30 starts for the Mets last season.  Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins.

Edinson Volquez is the ace of the Marlins, which just shows how poor their rotation is.  Volquez went 10-11 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 34 starts for the Royals last season.  He is 3-5 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Mets.

Bets against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MIAMI) - top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season are 38-5 (88.4%, +29.7 units) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Mets Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets -4

The Denver Nuggets need a win Sunday or they'll be officially eliminated from the playoffs.  They have played well under this pressure down the stretch, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of them on the road.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  That showed in their effort last time out as they lost 99-120 as 9-point road favorites at Phoenix, failing to cover the spread by 30 points.

Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who score at least 106 points per game in the second half of hte season this season.  The Nuggets are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -155

The San Francisco Giants are off to an awful 1-5 start this season.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight, especially after losing the first two games against the Padres in this series by exactly one run.  They'll salvage the series and avoid a sweep Sunday.

Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts for the Giants last season.  Cueto is 7-4 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Diego.

Clayton Richard is the ace of the Padres, which shows how poor their rotation really is.  He has gone 54-53 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in his big league career.

Cueto is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Cueto is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference.  They trail the Utah Jazz by just one game for that spot, which would give them home-court advantage in that upcoming series.  The Jazz have a tough game in Portland tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs have nothing to play for right now.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  As a result, there's no way they should be favored in this game when they don't care about it, while the Clippers really need it.

And the Clippers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation here.  They have won four straight coming in and have had the last two days off, and they'll be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA today.

Bets against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 212-137 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.  The underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-110)

The Chicago Cubs are coming off an extra innings loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last night.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant performance tonight and win by multiple runs in Game 2 of this series Saturday.

Right-hander Kyle Hendricks will start for Chicago.  He'll be looking to improve on his 5-3 record and 2.11 ERA in 10 career starts against the Brewers, including a 3-1 mark and a 1.82 ERA in five starts at Miller Park.

Tommy Milone is no more than a fill-in starter for the Brewers.  The veteran left-hander moved into the rotation when Opening Day starter Junior Guerra was lost with a strained calf just three innings into his opening start.  Milone posted a 9.00 ERA in allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings in Spring Training.

Chicago is 11-1 against the run line vs. good fielding teams who turn 1.1 or more double plays per game over the last two seasons.  Kendricks is 18-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons, and the Cubs are winning these games by 2.5 runs per game on average.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

The Boston Celtics have lost two in a row and now are not only in a tough spot to get the No. 1 seed, but also in jeopardy of losing the No. 2 seed.  They trail the Cavs by one game for the No. 1 and lead the Raptors by one game for the No. 2.  Simply put, they will be highly motivated for a win tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Charlotte Hornets, who aren't mathematically eliminated, but essentially are eliminated from the playoffs.  That's because they are three games behind both the No. 7 Bulls and No. 8 Pacers for the last two playoff spots.  There is only three games to play, so you do the math.  I don't expect the Hornets to show up at all tonight.

The Celtics simply own the Hornets.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They won by 10 and 8 at home earlier this season, and also by 6 on the road.  Now they will cap off the season sweep of the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Charlotte is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in Saturday home games this season.  Bets on road teams (BOSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 114-57 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -130

The Texas Rangers have opened 0-3 this season with two blown saves against the Cleveland Indians.  They'll be highly motivated to pick up their first win of the season tonight against the Oakland A's.

The Rangers had yesterday off to regroup and should come back focused and determined.  Meanwhile, the A's just finished a 4-game series with the Angels in which they split 2-2.  They won 5-1 yesterday.

A.J. Griffin has the benefit of never facing Oakland, so they won't know what to expect from him.  Raul Alcantara went 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts against the Rangers last season, giving up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings.

Griffin is 13-3 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 5-1 in Griffin's last six starts overall, including 4-0 in his last four home starts.  Take the Rangers Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat are a half-game behind both the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers for the 7th and 8th spots in the playoffs, respectively.  A win tonight would get them back in as they own the tiebreaker over the Pacers, so they will be highly motivated for a victory here.

The Toronto Raptors are playing for nothing other than playoff positioning.  There isn't a whole lot of difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 seed, which the Raptors are currently in.  They certainly don't need this game as much as the Heat do.

The Heat will be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Raptors.  Toronto needed a 20-point comeback to beat Detroit 105-102 on Wednesday, a Pistons team that really had nothing to play for.

The Heat are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.  Better yet, Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Heat are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a three-way tie with the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  Unfortunately for them, they lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they are on the outside looking in right now.

They'll clearly be motivated as a result, and I like what I saw from them in a 108-90 home win over the Raptors on Tuesday after losing in double-overtime to Cleveland on the road the game prior.  Lance Stephenson gave them a spark in the second half, and Paul George is on a tear, averaging 31.3 points in his last eight games.

"I'm dialed in," George told Pacers.com. "Whatever it takes to get it, I'm going to work my butt off and try to get us on the right path. Every night I am going to try and put it all out on that floor."

The Milwaukee Bucks are only playing for either the 5th or 6th seed, so not nearly as much is at stake for them.  And they are playing like it, getting upset 105-109 as 6.5-point home favorites against the Mavs, and getting blown out 79-110 at Oklahoma City as 6-point dogs in their last two games coming in.

The Pacers had lost the first three meetings of the season to the Raptors before beating them by 18 last time out.  Well, they'll also be looking to avoid the season sweep after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Bucks as well.  That will only add to their motivation tonight.

Indiana is 27-12 at home this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in a home game with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Pacers are 21-10 ATS vs. division opponents over the past two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers -118

The Chicago White Sox are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season.  They are on full-on rebuilding mode after trading away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in the offseason.  Any time we can fade them at a generous price like this one, we're going to look to do so.

James Shields went 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA in 2016.  He went 4-22 with a 6.77 ERA in 22 starts for the White Sox after being traded from San Diego last season.  You know the White Sox are in poor shape when he's their No. 3 starter.  Shields gave up 16 earned runs over 22 innings in four starts against the Tigers last season, posting a 6.55 ERA.

Matt Boyd has earned a rotation spot thanks to a strong spring training in which he posted a 2.10 ERA.  He struck out 23 batters in 25 2/3 innings this spring.  Boyd faced the White Sox four times last year, and he didn't allow more than 2 earned runs in each of his last three starts against them.

Shields is 9-24 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 46-22 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 7-3 in Boyd's last 10 starts.  The White Sox are 2-7 in Shields' last nine starts.  Take the Tigers Thursday.

15* Warriors/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now due to winning 12 straight games coming in.  This winning streak has allowed them to clinch the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, which means they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight, so they are extremely tired right now.  That's why they are expected to rest both Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala tonight, and Kevin Durant isn't expected to return until Saturday.

The Phoenix Suns are undervalued due to losing 12 straight coming in, but they have been competitive of late, going 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  That includes a 6-point loss to the Clippers, a 10-point loss at Boston, a 4-point loss at Atlanta, and a 7-point loss to Houston.  They will show up for the Warriors tonight at home.

Phoenix is 24-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Golden State.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Denver Nuggets have gone on the road and pulled off back-to-back upset wins over the Heat and Pelicans to pull within a half-game of the Portland Trail Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a win in Houston tonight.

Conversely, the Houston Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  That has started to show as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  And now they are dealing with some key injuries as both Sam Dekker (hand) and Ryan Anderson (ankle) are out, while Trevor Ariza (personal) and James Harden (flu) are both questionable tonight.

The Nuggets will want revenge from losing each of the first three meetings with the Rockets this season and avoiding the season sweep.  The last two have been excruciating as they lost 109-105 at home, and 124-125 on the road.  I think they'll easily stay within this 8.5-point spread, possibly pulling off the upset tonight.

The Nuggets are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -113

Last year, Baltimore lost the season series to Toronto 10-9.  That gave the Blue Jays the home-field advantage in the AL wild-card game, which went to Toronto in extra innings with a 5-2 victory on Edwin Encarnacion's three-run homer in the 11th.

There is some bad blood in this rivalry, and the Orioles want some serious payback this season.  That's why they'll be motivated to sweep the Jays after winning the opener 3-2.  Now they're sending perhaps their most talented starter to the mount today in Dylan Bundy, a former first-round pick who stepped into the starting rotation in the second half of last year and really threw well at times.

J.A. Happ had a great season last year with 20 victories.  However, he was one of the luckiest starters in baseball according to the metrics, and he's in line for some big-time regression in 2017.  Happ is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 11 career starts against Baltimore.  Bundy is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in four career relief appearances against Toronto.

Baltimore is 40-15 (+18.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The home team is 37-18 in Eric Cooper's last 55 Wednesday games behind home plate.  Roll with the Orioles Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -137

After losing their opener Sunday in walk off fashion to the rival St. Louis Cardinals, I full expect the Chicago Cubs to bounce back with a victory here in Game 2 Tuesday.  They have the clear edge on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Jake Arrieta went 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA last year to follow up his Cy Young Award season of 2015.  He has a history of success against the Cardinals, going 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA in 13 career starts.  He limited opponents to an MLB-low .194 batting average last year.

Adam Wainwright went 13-9 with a 4.62 ERA last season.  He clearly has lost it and probably will never return to his once dominant form.  Wainwright posted a 7.98 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season.

Arrieta is 15-1 (+13.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 41-15 in Arrieta's last 56 starts.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Cubs Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are tied with the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They lose the tiebreaker, so they need to actually gain a game on the Heat the rest of the way to get in.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight, especially after four straight losses coming in, including a double-OT hearbreaker against the Cavs last time out.

The good news for the Pacers is that they'll be playing on their home floor tonight, where they have been dominant all season.  The Pacers are 26-12 at home this year.  They are clearly undervalued right now due to their recent skid, and they want revenge from a 100-111 loss at Toronto on March 31st just a few days ago.

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued due to going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  This entire run has come against teams seeded 7th or worst in the playoff standings currently.  They have beaten up on some bad teams, but they will get some resistance from a Pacers team tonight that is desperate for a win.

The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Indiana is 24-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* UNC/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on UNC -1

The UNC Tar Heels suffered the agony of losing on a buzzer-beater in last year's championship game against Villanova. They've been on a mission all season to get that sour taste out of their mouths, and now they have a chance to do just that by beating Gonzaga Monday.

The Bulldogs have had a huge size advantage against everyone they have faced this season.  But that won't be the case against UNC, which is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 43% of their own misses on the season.  They have done so behind the duo of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.

The X-factor for the Tar Heels' is Theo Pinson, who has missed 19 games this season due to injury, but has gotten healthy and come up huge in the NCAA Tournament.  He is their best perimeter defender, and he will harass Nigel Williams-Goss and whoever he is matched up against in this game.  He just makes so many huge plays that don't always show up in the box score, including game-winning plays against both Kentucky and Oregon.

UNC has faced the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game.  Gonzaga couldn't have had a much easier path with games against South Dakota State, Northwestern, WVU, Xavier and South Carolina.  I think the fact that the Tar Heels are more battle-tested and that they were just here last year will be a huge advantage.  You can't simulate their championship game experience.

Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 21-8-3 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -154

The Boston Red Sox have the best lineup in baseball, and it's really not even all that close.  They hit .281 and scored 5.4 runs per game last season, including .299 and 5.9 runs per game at home.  Now Pablo Sandoval looks like his old self, which will help make up for the absence of David Ortiz.

Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young last year by going 22-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 34 starts.  Porcello went 13-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 16 home starts last year.  The right-hander has never lost to the Pirates, going 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.609 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Gerrit Cole had an injury-plagued 2016 campaign.  He finished 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in 21 starts, including 5-5 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Now he has to open the 2017 season against the best lineup in baseball, so don't expect him to turn it around in time.

The Red Sox are 15-1 in Porcello's last 16 home starts.  Boston is 86-34 in its last 120 interleague games.  The Red Sox are 21-7 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series.  The Pirates are 0-5 in Cole's last five starts.  The Pirates are 26-54 in their last 80 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Red Sox Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nets UNDER 217

The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled to score without Paul Millsap.  That's why they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  They have been held to 100 or fewer points in nine of those 10 contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last nine games as a result.

I like the fact that the Nets and Hawks just played a week ago, and this will actually be their 3rd meeting in a month.  They combined for 199 points a week ago, and 215 points in the meeting prior.  They are obviously very familiar with each other now, and familiarity favors the defenses.

In fact, the Hawks and Nets have combined for 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 12 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 217.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.v

15* Giants/Diamondbacks 2017 MLB Season Opener on Arizona +140

The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into 2017.  They were expected to make a run at the NL West last year, but fell flat on their faces with a 69-93 finish.  Injuries and bullpen issues really brought them down.

Look for the Diamondbacks to realize their potential this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League, and their rotation should be healthier this year.  There's no question that Zack Greinke will bounce back following a sub-par season in his first year of the new $200 million contract.

"I still have really high hopes for our team," Greinke said this spring. "I thought we were going to be really good going into last year. We pretty much have the same team or a very similar team. I think we should be good. I'm shocked we didn't do better last year."

Greinke has owned the Giants throughout his career, going 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* Jazz/Spurs ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Utah +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are essentially locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  They aren't catching the Warriors, and they are way ahead of the Rockets.  I question their motivation the rest of the regular season as a result.

Greg Popovich is taking the conservative approach already.  LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobli and Danny Green are all expected to miss today's game due to either minor injuries or rest.  So the Spurs will be short-handed for this matchup already.

Unlike the Spurs, the Jazz actually have something to play for.  The lead the Clippers by just one game for the 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round.  The Jazz have been fighting to hold on to that seed, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming in.

Utah is 37-14 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Jazz are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday games.  The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament.  They are still getting no love from oddsmakers here as 7-point underdogs in the Final Four, and that's precisely the way that Frank Martin and company like it.

The Gamecocks have pulled four straight 'upsets' to get here in beating Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida.  But really, these games weren't even all that close as all four wins came by 7 points or more, including two by exactly 20 points.  The Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone right now.

This is a team that I love to back because they get after it defensively better than anyone in college basketball.  Nothing comes easy against them, and offensively, they have found their stride in the tournament, averaging 82.0 points per game. They have the best player in the tournament to bail them out in Sindarius Thornwell, who is averaging 25.8 points in the big dance while scoring at least 24 points in every game.

The Gamecocks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 neutral site games.  I think Gonzaga is being overvalued here due to its blowout win over Xavier in the Elite 8.  But the Musketeers didn't belong in the Elite 8 and were the worst team left in the field.  The only real team that Gonzaga has faced is West Virginia, and it was fortunate to escape with a 3-point victory.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls got a big break yesterday when BOTH the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers lost.  That means they are just 0.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East as they sit at 36-39, while both the Pacers and Heat are 37-39.  They can pull even with them with a win today.

The Bulls will be well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they'll come in with confidence after pulling off back-to-back upsets 109-94 at Milwaukee as 6.5-point dogs, and 99-93 at home over Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Their two wins were struggles over Phoenix (by 4) and Philadelphia (by 7).  They are 2-8 without Paul Millsap this season.  Millsap will be out again Saturday, as will their best defender in Thobo Sefolosha, who would usually match up with Jimmy Butler.

The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

We're getting the Utah Jazz at a discount at home tonight as only 2.5-point favorites over the Washington Wizards.  The Jazz are motivated to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and they have played like it their past two games.

Rudy Gobert called out his team following a 95-108 loss to the Clippers on Saturday.  His team has responded by beating the Pelicans 108-100 as 6-point home favorites, and then throttling the Kings 112-82 as 7.5-point road favorites.

The Jazz are 25-12 at home this season and own one of the better home-court advantages in the league.  The Wizards are 17-19 on the road this season.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days, 5th game in 8 days and the 15th game in 25 days for the Wizards.  They have had a brutal schedule 11 of their last 15 games on the road and they are simply running out of gas right now.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wizards are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207

This is a classic home-and-home situation in the NBA.  The Heat just beat the Knicks 105-88 on the road on Wednesday, and now they face each other two days later in Miami.  I also like backing the UNDER in the second meeting in these situations because familiarity favors the defenses.

And these teams combined for only 193 points in the first meeting, and now the total has been set at 207 for the rematch, a full 14 points more.  I think there's some serious value with the UNDER, especially when you look at the head-to-head history in this series.

Indeed, the Knicks and Heat have combined for 204 or fewer points in 28 o their last 29 meetings.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 207.  These are bitter rivals and defense usually wins out.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  This run has put them into the 8th seed in the Western Conference, just one game ahead of the Denver Nuggets.

While the Blazers have everything to play for, the Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  I expect them to lack focus down the stretch as a result knowing that winning or losing doesn't matter to them now.

And this is an awful spot for the Rockets.  They are coming off a loss to the Warriors on Tuesday, and now they have a huge game against Golden State on deck tomorrow where they'll be looking for revenge.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight given the spot.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Georgia Tech/TCU NIT No-Brainer on TCU -4

The TCU Horned Frogs are clearly on a mission to win the NIT.  And I expect them to get the job done in Jamie Dixon's first year on the job Thursday with another win and cover against Georgia Tech tonight.

I would argue that TCU has beaten three straight opponents that are all better than anyone Georgia Tech has faced in its last three games.  The Horned Frogs won at Iowa, then blew out Richmond (by 18) and UCF (by 15).  Tech's three wins have come against Belmont, Ole Miss and CS-Bakersfield.

The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.  That includes an upset win over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament.  TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet TCU Thursday.

20* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs have played their best basketball against the NBA's top teams.  Indeed, they are 9-1 against the top four teams in the NBA in the Warriors, Cavs, Rockets and Celtics this season.  Their only loss was by two points in November to the Rockets.

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating Houston 113-106 on the road last night.  They will certainly be the more tired team considering the Spurs had yesterday off following their 103-74 thrashing of Cleveland on Monday.

The Spurs have absolutely owned the Warriors in both meetings this season.  They won 129-100 as 8-point road underdogs on October 25th and 107-85 as 10.5-point home favorites on March 11th.  Look for them to improve to 3-0 against the Warriors this season and inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the West tonight.

Golden State is 6-16 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  San Antonio is 19-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have fought their way back into an 8th-place tie with the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference.  Now they get to host the Nuggets tonight, and they aren't about to let this golden opportunity slip by.

The Blazers have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Indeed, they've gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Each of their last five victories have come by 11 points or more, so these games really haven't even been close.

The Blazers have owned the Nuggets, too.  They are 5-1 in the last six meetings, and 13-2 in the last 15 meetings.  The Blazers are 30-11 straight up in their last 41 home meetings, including 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Portland.

Portland is 13-2 ATS after a combined score of 185 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 26-11 at home this season.  They have the biggest home/away difference in the league this year.  We'll back them at home here against a struggling Minnesota Timberwolves team with nothing to play for.

The Timberwolves have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are clearly just playing out the string.  But they've also had a brutal schedule with 11 of their last 15 games on the road, and this tough slate appears to be catching up with them.

Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 64-29 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 13-3 ATS in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Minnesota is 14-30 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS int heir last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Pacers Tuesday.

15* CS-Bakersfield/GA Tech NIT No-Brainer on CS-Bakersfield +2.5

Bakersfield has been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point.  It has pulled off three straight outright road upsets over California (73-66) as 6.5-point dogs, Colorado State (81-63) as 4.5-point dogs and UT-Arlington (80-76) as 4-point dogs.

You could argue that all three of those teams they've already beaten are better than Georgia Tech.  Now Bakersfield finds itself in the role of the dog once again in the semifinals.  This team has been playing tremendous defense, limiting Cal to 33.3% shooting, Colorado State to 34.5% and Arlington to 35.5%.

Georgia Tech is just 3-11 in all road games this season, while Bakersfield is 13-8 away from home.  Bakersfield is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  The Roadrunners are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Roll with Bakersfield Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are 3.5 games behind the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They need to finish strong to have any hope, and I like their chances of taking down the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Thunder, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 125-137 loss at Houston yesterday.  That shootout clearly took a lot out of them.  Russell Westbrook played 39 minutes in the defeat.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Warriors UNDER 207.5

This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Grizzlies and Warriors.  It's safe to say that these teams are very familiar with each other by now, and familiarity tends to favor defensive battles.  I expect that to be the case in this game Sunday.

The Warriors have been an UNDER machine since losing Kevin Durant to injury.  In fact, the UNDER is 14-1 in Warriors last 15 games overall.  Now they're up against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies, who have allowed 97 or fewer points in each of their last six games coming in.

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER after covering four of their last five against hte spread this season.  Golden State is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four road games.  The UNDER is 70-34-1 in Warriors last 105 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* South Carolina/Florida East Region No-Brainer on Florida -3.5

The Florida Gators have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their three games.  They beat East Tennessee State by 15, Virginia by 26 and Wisconsin by 1.  They led the Badgers by 12 late in the second half, though.

South Carolina has been the story of the NCAA Tournament, but this Cinderella story comes to an end Sunday.  I like the toughness the Gamecocks have shown, but they've beaten some overrated teams in Marquette, Duke and Baylor to get here.

Now they're up against the 3rd-best team in the country in Florida according to Kenpom.  The Gators rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 25th in offensive efficiency in his rankings.  They should be roughly an 8-point favorite over South Carolina on a neutral court, instead they're only laying 8.5 here.

Florida is 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Gators are 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Florida Sunday.

20* Oregon/Kansas Midwest Region No-Brainer on Kansas -7

The Kansas Jayhawks have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with wins by 38, 20 and 32 points.  They are simply obliterating the competition, and I expect that to continue here tonight.

The Jayhawks have certainly used location from their No. 1 seed to their advantage.  They got to play close to home in their first two games in Tulsa, and their next two games have been in Kansas City.  They have rode their home crowd edge to 100, 90 and 98 points offensively in their three games.

Oregon has been fortunate to make it this far, needing late comebacks to beat Rhode Island (75-72) and Michigan (69-68). But now the Ducks take a big step up in class here, and this is where the loss of Chris Boucher inside will finally hurt them. Look for Kansas to get whatever it wants offensively and to hang another big number on this Oregon defense.

Kansas is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams who allow 42% or less after 15-plus games this season.  The Ducks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Mavs UNDER 194

The Dallas Mavericks have gotten better defensively since trading for elite rim protector Nerlens Noel from Philadelphia. The Toronto Raptors have struggled offensively since losing PG Kyle Lowry to injury.  I think this game makes for an easy UNDER winner today.

After all, Toronto just beat Dallas 100-78 at home on March 13th for 178 combined points.  Now these teams meet up less than two weeks later in Dallas, and they are obviously very familiar with one another now.  That will familiarity will certainly favor the UNDER again in the rematch.

Toronto is 24-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Toronto is 14-3 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Raptors last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Mavericks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Florida East Region BAILOUT on Florida PK

No team has been more impressive in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament than Florida.  After beating East Tennessee State as 9.5-point favorites, the Gators rolled Virginia 65-39 as 1.5-point favorites.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now.

Wisconsin is getting a lot of love right now for its upset of Villanova.  However, that was a perfect matchup for the Badgers as they took advantage of their size and the Wildcats' lack of it.  They won't have that same advantage inside over the Gators here.

Kenpom's rankings have Florida as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree.  They have Wisconsin at 21st.  According to his rankings, the Gators should be roughly 6-point favorites in this game.  I tend to agree with that as well.  This Gators team has been underrated all season.

Florida is 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Gators are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6

Don't look now but the Milwaukee Bucks are sitting in 6th place in the Eastern Conference just one game behind Atlanta for the No. 5 seed.  Just a few weeks ago it was looking like the Bucks wouldn't even make the playoffs.

But they have buckled down and played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They've gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home over this span with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.

The Atlanta Hawks are stuck in strugglesville thanks to key injuries to Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore, both of which are expected to sit out tonight.  They are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those losses coming by 8 or more points.  It's hard to envision them being able to hang with the Bucks without Millsap and Bazemore tonight.

Bets against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 61-24 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets don't have to tank because they are essentially guaranteed to finish with the worst record in the NBA. As a result, they have been playing their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Washington Wizards were on fire going into the All-Star Break, but they came out of it overvalued because of it.  And that has shown in the market place as the Wizards are just 4-12 ATS since the Break.  They have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

This is an awful spot for the Wizards, who will be looking ahead to their huge game tomorrow night against the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road.  They won't be focused on the Nets, certainly not enough to put them away by 12-plus points.  Look for them to struggle to even win this game, let alone win by margin.

Washington is 4-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bets against home favorites of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS since 1996.   The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* Xavier/Arizona West Region BAILOUT on Arizona -7.5

The Arizona Wildcats are are set up well to make the Final Four and win it all.  They have will have played close to home all tournament, and that's the case again for the next two rounds as they'll be playing in San Jose, CA.  And then the Final Four will be in Phoenix.

The Wildcats have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall, including 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six.  They have the best big man duo in the country down low, and their guards have really taken their games to the next level, especially since getting Alonzo Trier back from suspension.

Xavier has had a nice run thus far, pulling off back-to-back upsets over Maryland and Florida State.  But those two teams faded down the stretch and were two of the most inconsistent teams coming into the tournament.  Xavier meets its match today in Arizona.

Arizona is 8-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  Xavier is 1-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Musketeers simply don't have the man power to match up with Arizona's two 7-footers inside.  Take Arizona Thursday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks have a huge home-court advantage over Purdue in the Sweet 16.  This game will be played in Kansas City at the Sprint Center, the same location where they play the Big 12 Tournament every year.  It will be a pro-Jayhawk crowd to say the least.

The Jayhawks also had a decided home-court edge in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in Tulsa, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They dominated Cal Davis 100-62 as 23-point favorites, and also rolled Michigan State 90-70 as 8-point favorites.  This team is on a mission and has been as impressive as anyone thus far.

Guard play wins out in the NCAA Tournament, and Kansas has the best trio in the country in Mason, Graham and Jackson.  The Boilermakers will be at a severe disadvantage on that front as they don't have the guards that can stay with them.  Athletically, this is a huge mismatch in favor of Kansas.

The Jayhawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Bet Kansas Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 198.5

This will be the 2nd meeting in 6 days for the Spurs and Grizzlies.  They met up on March 18th in Memphis with the Grizzlies winning 104-96.  Now they are very familiar with one another, and that familiarity favors a defensive battle in the rematch that stays UNDER this 198.5-point total.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen less than 198.5 combined points.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have averaged 183.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.5.

Memphis is 15-4 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 39% or better over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven Thursday games.  The UNDER is 12-4-1 in Spurs last 17 games following a win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a covering machine, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are a ridiculous 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games overall, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming in.

Now they are catching a whopping 10.5 points against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will suffer a hangover from their home loss to the Warriors on Monday.  They also have a huge game at Houston on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 13-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the 76ers.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to play up to their potential with DeMarcus Cousins.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to continue their playoff push.  In their three home games during this stretch, all three resulted in blowouts over Portland (by 23), Houston (by 16) and Minnesota (by 14).

The Memphis Grizzlies also come in playing well.  They had lost five straight prior to their current four-game winning streak.  But they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now, and this is clearly a letdown spot off their upset home win over the Spurs last time out.

Not only is this a letdown spot, but it's also a lookahead spot for the Grizzlies.  They have two huge road games on deck against the Spurs and Warriors.  I don't expect them to give the Pelicans their full attention tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Tuesday games.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Boise State/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Boise State +8.5

The Boise State Broncos went on the road and beat Utah outright 73-68 as 12-point underdogs in the opening round of the NIT.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs to Illinois in the second round.

The Broncos have been a great bet on the road this season, going 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS in all away games.  This is a team that only lost by 5 as 18-point road underdogs in non-conference play, too.  They will be in this game from start to finish against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad.

The Fighting Illini lost to Rutgers 59-62 in the season finale and were blown out by Michigan 55-75 in the Big Ten Tournament.  And now they're getting too much respect from the books for their 82-57 win over Valparaiso in the first round of the NIT.  That's a Valpo team that fell apart down the stretch after losing their best player in Alec Peters to a season-ending injury.

Boise State is 26-14 ATS in road games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog of 7.0-8.5 points.  Take Boise State Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Rockets UNDER 237.5

I love backing the UNDER in the second game of home-and-home situations.  The Rockets and Nuggets just played on Saturday in Denver, and now they play each other again Monday in Houston this time around.

And that meeting Saturday went way UNDER the number.  Houston won 109-105 for 214 combined points despite the fact that the total was set at 241.  Now the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for the situation, setting the total at 237.5 in the rematch.

Bets on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.

Denver is dealing with a bunch of injuries right now that are hampering its offense.  It is expected to be without the trio of Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had three days off since thumping the Charlotte Hornets 98-77 at home on Wednesday.  Look for a big effort from them tonight with all this time off coming in.

The Toronto Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They haven't been playing well since losing their floor general in Kyle Lowry to injury.  They are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 6, 15 and 21 points in the process.

The Pacers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.  Indiana is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes showed they wanted to be in the NIT with their 87-75 win over South Dakota in the opener.  The Hawkeyes shot 56.5% from the field and were led by some tremendous games from their freshmen.  Tyler Cook had 18 points and 8 rebounds, Isaiah Moss had 16 points and Jordan Bohannon has 19 points and 11 assists, all three being freshmen.

Now the Hawkeyes are up against a TCU team that had NCAA Tournament aspirations before going 3-8 in their final 11 games of the season.  Meanwhile, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Horned Frogs are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in true road games this season.  They'll be up against an Iowa team that has dominated at home, going 15-4 SU & 10-5 ATS on the season.

The Horned Frogs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  TCU is 1-10 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* Wichita State/Kentucky No-Brainer on Kentucky -4

There's no question that Wichita State will want revenge on Kentucky from a few years ago when the Wildcats handed the Shockers their first loss in the NCAA Tournament.  They were a No. 8 seed while the Shockers were a No. 1 seed, and the Wildcats actually went on to lose to UConn in the National Championship Game after the Round of 32 upset.

The difference is that Kentucky was the more talented team then, and they are clearly the more talented team again in 2017.  The Wildcats will run them out of the gym once again.  They have won 12 straight coming in and are clearly hitting their stride.

Wichita State usually has an advantage inside against every opponent it faces, but that won't be the case here.  Edrice Edebayo is one of the most dominant big men in the country, averaging 13.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.  He has only gotten better as the season has gone on and is filling his full potential down the stretch.

Wichita State benefited from an extremely easy schedule this season, but it hasn't done well when stepping up in class.  The Shockers are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games against Louisville (52-62, L), Michigan State (72-77, L), Oklahoma State (76-93, L) and Dayton (64-58, W), which are the four best teams they have faced this season.  And they were fortunate to beat Dayton Friday.

The Shockers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Shockers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  This is more of a mismatch than this 4-point spread indicates as I expect the Wildcats to dominate from the outset.  Roll with Kentucky Sunday.

20* Michigan/Louisville Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now.  Everyone was on them against Oklahoma State in the first round, and they were fortunate to win that game 92-91, but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Now I can't help but think the Wolverines are out of gas.  They played four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament, and then played one of the most entertaining, up-tempo games of the opening round with their 183-point tussle with the Cowboys.

Now the Wolverines will be up against a Louisville team that forces you to expend a ton of energy trying to beat their press.  And with only one day to prepare for the Cardinals, that won't be enough.  Derrick Walton Jr. is having a tremendous run at the PG position, but he'll be in over his head in trying to beat this Louisville press Sunday.

The Cardinals are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  Louisville is 11-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten opponents.  Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. ACC foes.  Take Louisville Sunday.

20* Iowa State/Purdue Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State ML +103

I've been backing the Iowa State Cyclones as much as any team in the country over the last several weeks, and I've had tremendous success doing so.  The Cyclones are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing as well as any team in the country.

In previous years, facing a team like Purdue with so much size would have been a problem for the Cyclones.  But that's not the case this year as they have gotten significant contributions from unsung heroes in forwards Darrell Bowie and Solomon Young inside.  These two do the dirty work, while the other guys get all the credit.

And boy do the Cyclones have some stars.  They play six seniors regularly, and I love their veteran leadership.  Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.9 rpg) is one of the best point guards in the country, Naz Mitrou-Long (15.4 ppg) is an elite shooter, Deonte Burton (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) can do it all both inside and outside, and Matt Thomas (12.1 ppg, 44.4% 3-pointers) is a steady leader.  The Cyclones have four guys on the court at all times who shoot 37% or better from 3-point range, which makes them perhaps the most difficult team to guard in the tournament.

The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 198

Recent meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies indicate that the oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight.  I don't think the Spurs and Grizzlies combined to score anywhere near 198 points Saturday.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  They have combined for 163, 211, 183, 162, 180 and 188 points in the last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 181.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER vs. teams who make 39% or more of their 3-point attempts over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Spurs last 20 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Grizzlies last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* West Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are a legitimate national title contender this season.  They were the best team in the Pac-12 in the regular and postseasons, and they are clearly one of the best teams in the tournament.  Now they're only laying 5 points in the Round of 32 against St. Mary's, and I expect this to be a blowout in the Wildcats' favor.

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the tournament.  They had an extremely easy schedule outside of Gonzaga, and we saw what happened when they took a step up in class and faced the Bulldogs three times this year.  They lost by 23 at Gonzaga, by 10 at home, and by 18 in the WCC Championship.  Arizona is similar to Gonzaga in build and talent, if not better.

Arizona is 7-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  St. Mary's is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15 or more games ove r the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Utah, the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight against Toronto.  The Pistons are currently tied for the 8th seed in the East and can't afford to lose at home.

Detroit has been a solid home team all season, going 22-13 SU & 21-14 ATS on the year.  The Pistons are 36-18 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

The Toronto Raptors have been a mess since Kyle Lowry went down with an injury.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just lost to Oklahoma City 102-123 at home last night, so they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.

Toronto is 7-23 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Seton Hall/Arkansas South Region No-Brainer on Seton Hall +1

The Seton Hall Pirates certainly know how to finish.  They won the Big East Tournament last year with an upset over Villanova that they needed just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  And this year, they were on the bubble in late-February before going 5-1 over their final six games.

The last three games have been the most impressive and show what the Pirates are capable of.  They won at Butler 70-64 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Marquette 82-76 as 1.5-point dogs in their first game of the Big East Tournament, then gave Villanova all they wanted in a 53-55 loss at 11.5-point dogs.

I think the loss to Villanova was a good thing because it showed they could play with one of the best teams in the country, but it also gave them some extra rest coming into the tournament having last played on Friday, March 10th.  And the Pirates have one of the best trios in the country in Khadeem Carrington (16.9 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Angel Delgado (15.3 ppg, 13.1 rpg) that can lead them on a run in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Arkansas improved quite a bit this season under Mike Anderson and finished strong.  They made it all the way to the SEC Championship Game.  There they were overmatched in a 65-82 loss to Kentucky.  And I think that run took a lot out of them as they had to play on Sunday, March 12th, which means the Pirates have had two more days off than them.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.  Seton Hall is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 games as a dog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Bet Seton Hall Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +12.5

The Baylor Bears peaked in late-January, but they have just been a mediocre team since.  They are just 5-6 SU & 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This is a team that has struggled in the NCAA Tournament the past few years, and they certainly aren't trending in the right direction this year, either.

New Mexico State (28-5) is a live underdog.  The Aggies only suffered five losses all season, and four of them came by 13 points or fewer.  They were competitive in non-conference road losses at Colorado State and New Mexico, two of the best teams in the Mountain West.  They won at UTEP 79-68 and at Arizona State 81-80 as well.

Baylor likes to overwhelm teams with its size, but the Aggies won't be overwhelmed here.  They have two solid big men in Eli Chuha (12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Jemerrio Jones (9.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg).  They also have two outstanding guards in Ian Baker (16.6 ppg, 4.1 apg) and Braxton Huggins (13.6 ppg, 42.2% 3-pointers).  These four can lead the upset.

Baylor is 1-8 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs WAC opponents.  Baylor is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite.  Roll with New Mexico State Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now after winning the Big Ten Tournament.  They suffered a near-death experience when their plane came to a halt on the runway before they were getting ready to take off for the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan got on a different flight and showed up just hours before their game against Illinois.  They used that near-death experience to their advantage and played their best basketball of the season, winning four games in four days.  But I think that run took a lot out of them as they played on Sunday.  And they won't be playing with that same intensity in the NCAA Tournament because they won't have much gas left in the tank.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State last played on Thursday in a loss to Iowa State.  So the Cowboys have had extra time to prepare and will be the fresher team.  They are getting overlooked now after losing each of their final three games of the season by single-digits to Iowa State (twice) and Kansas. 

But this is a team that had gone 10-1 in its previous 11 games.  And they have been the most efficient offensive team in the country since January 21st. Most think it's UCLA, but it's actually Oklahoma State.  Not to mention, according to KenPom, the Cowboys have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country this season.

Oklahoma State has won some impressive road games this season.  It won at Wichita State 93-76), at Texas Tech 83-64, at West Virginia 82-75, at TCU 71-68 and at Kansas State 80-68.  This team certainly isn't afraid to go on the road and give a big effort as they went 9-7 SU & 11-5 ATS in all road games this season.

Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.  Take Oklahoma State Friday.

20* Nevada/Iowa State Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament three of the last four years.  A few seasons ago, they were riding high and then were upset by UAB in the opening round.  This senior-laded squad with six seniors who play significant minutes remembers that defeat, and they won't fall victim to overlooking Nevada this time around.

I believe Iowa State has as good a chance to make the Final Four as any team not among the Top 3 seeds in this tournament.  I love that senior leadership, and this is a red hot team having gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The only loss came on the road at West Virginia, where nobody seems to win, and they avenged that loss with an 80-74 victory over the Mountaineers in the Big 12 Championship Game.

In previous years, being the best team in the Mountain West would have been a heck of an accomplishment.  But this conference was worse this season than any I can remember in history.  So the Wolf Pack don't deserve much credit for winning the MWC.  They lost by 18 at St. Mary's in non-conference, and they went 1-1 against Iona, which were the two teams they faced this season that will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog.  This game will be played in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so Iowa State will have a decisive home-court advantage here.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They went 22-10 this year and finished 10-8 in the toughest conference in the country in the ACC.  They went 17-11 ATS in all lined games, including 10-5 ATS in road lined games.

Buzz Williams is one of my favorite head coaches in the country because he gets the most out of his players.  And Williams has done just that at Virginia Tech, taking over a Hokies team a few years ago that was coming off three straight last-place finishes in the ACC.

Wisconsin was the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, but it has been overrated all season.  The Badgers finished 25-9 overall and didn't even win the Big Ten.  They went 6-11 ATS in all road lined games.  And the Badgers finished terribly, going 4-6 SU in their last 10 games, and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 contests.

The Badgers lost to Michigan 56-71 in the Big Ten Championship Game on Sunday.  That leaves them with less time to prepare for Virginia Tech, and they clearly won't be as fresh.  The Hokies last played on Thursday, March 9th in a hard-fought 68-74 loss to Florida State.  They have now had a full week off to get prepared.

My biggest reason for picking the Hokies here is the matchup advantage.  The Hokies led the ACC in 3-point shooting this season, and they were 9th in the country, hitting 40.3% from deep on the season.  Wisconsin ranks 306th in the country in defending the 3-pointer, allowing 37.7% from distance on the season.  I think VA Tech's small ball is a matchup nightmare this slow, lengthy Wisconsin squad.

VA Tech is 18-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks trail the Toronto Raptors by two games for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  They have been coming on strong with a 3-1 record in their last four games with their only loss coming on the road at San Antonio by eight points.

The Hawks have had two days off since losing in San Antonio on Monday, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight after a 98-91 win in Chicago.  They won't be able to match the effort put forth by the Hawks tonight.

Atlanta has clearly had Memphis' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Hawks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings, winning by 17 points on the road, by 12 points at home and by 15 points on the road.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by a combined 44 points in those three meetings, or an average of nearly 15 points per game.

Memphis is 1-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs a team with a winning record.  The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Atlanta.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2

I know the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here today, but oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it.  There's now value with the Pacers laying only two points at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the NBA, going 23-10 at home this season.  The Hornets are just 11-23 on the road this year.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-94 Indiana victory in their last home meeting earlier this season.

The Hornets just can't get anything going.  They are 6-17 in their last 23 games overall.  They certainly don't deserve the respect they are getting from oddsmakers after losing back-to-back home games to the Pelicans and Bulls coming in.

Charlotte is 2-13 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Indiana is 12-3 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Hornets are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UNC-Greensboro +13

Four days after Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim angered and entire city by saying there was "no value" in the ACC holding its postseason tournament in Greensboro, it was announced that UNC-Greensboro will get its shot at the Orange in the first round of the NIT Wednesday.

A church organization in Greensboro has been selling shirts that read, "Greensboro vs. Boeheim."  And there's no question that Syracuse doesn't want to be in the NIT as it was one of the first teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.  This is a team that made a run to the Final Four last year and could care less about the NIT a season later.

"When you're on the bubble, you can miss, for whatever reason," Boeheim said. "It's heartbreaking because everything today is about the NCAA tournament. It's not just us. There's 20 brokenhearted teams out there that wish they had done one thing better."

Syracuse is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Greensboro is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Orange have losses to UConn, Georgetown and St. John's out of conference this season.  Bet UNC-Greensboro Wednesday.

15* 76ers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +17

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday.  They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games since losing Kevin Durant to an injury.

Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points against a Philadelphia 76ers team that just keeps covering.  The 76ers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games overall.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning record.

And the 76ers are going to want revenge from a 108-119 home loss to the Warriors on February 27th in which they covered as 14-point underdogs.  The Warriors had Durant for that game, but they won't for the rematch.  And the Warriors are in a tough spot here as this is their first home game following a stretch in which they played seven of eight games on the road.

The 76ers are 19-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.  Philadelphia is 25-6 ATS off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 11-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring at least 106 points per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Warriors are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the 76ers Tuesday.

20* Hawks/Spurs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5

The San Antonio Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are coming off a huge win over the Golden State Warriors, but now they are in a letdown spot tonight.  Plus, the Warriors were without their five best players in game game, so it wasn't too big of a feat.

And the Spurs have a bunch of injury concerns right now.  LaMarcus Aldridge is out indefinitely, Tony Parker is expected to miss this game, and Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a concussion.  Whether or not Leonard plays, the Spurs should not be 6.5-point favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are coming on strong, winning three straight coming in.  They are currently the No. 5 seed in the East, just one game behind Toronto for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Look for them to clamp down and try and get that home court, which is exactly what their goal is.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday games.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers have been a tremendous home team this season.  They are 22-10 on their home court and will be happy to be back home here after playing six of their previous seven games on the road.

This is a tough spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a win over Toronto at home yesterday.  And now they could be without their best player in Goran Dragic, who suffered an eye injury against the Raptors and is doubtful to play tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Indiana and Miami.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team has also gone 8-1 ATS in those nine contests.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in Sunday home games over the past three seasons, outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points per game on average.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Indiana.  Take the Pacers Sunday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2

The Wisconsin Badgers got a wake-up call by losing five out of six games toward the end of the regular season.  But they have been dominant since, beating Minnesota by 17, Indiana by 10 and Northwestern by 28 in their last three games.

You have to give the Michigan Wolverines a ton of credit for making the title game considering the hand they were dealt.  Their plane was delayed and they arrived just hours before the Big Ten Tournament.  All they've done is reel off three straight victories.

However, the Wolverines now have to be out of gas, period.  They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin will only be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after receiving a first-round bye.  And the Badgers didn't need to play their starters big minutes yesterday in their 28-point blowout over Northwestern.

Wisconsin has won 5 of its last 6 meetings with Michigan.  The Badgers are 7-1 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  The Badgers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.