20* Chiefs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -6 

The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing defense like the ’85 Bears here down the stretch.  That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL when you consider the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy.  The Chiefs are only giving up 11.3 points per game over their last four games. 

Now Kansas City goes up against an awful Chicago offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in averaging just 298.4 yards per game.  The Bears are also scoring just 18.3 points per game, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with the Chiefs in this one. 

And that’s even if the Bears actually show up.  I could see them packing it in this week after suffering their dream-crushing loss to the division rival Packers last week.  That loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and I usually love fading teams the week after they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. 

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by at least 7 points, so they should have no problem beating this hapless Bears team by a TD or more.  They went on the road and beat both the Chargers by 7 and the Patriots by 7. And they also beat the Raiders by 31 and the Broncos by 20 at home.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now. 

The Bears have some injuries that will prevent them from being competitive also.  They are without LB Danny Trevethan, DE Akiem Hicks, OT Bobbie Massie and WR Taylor Gabriel.  And it’s a pretty easy choice here to back Patrick Mahomes over Mitch Trubisky, who just called out his coach last week and there’s certainly some divisiveness in their locker room right now. 

The Chiefs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Kansas City is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an ATS win.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 219.5 

Two of the top defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Pacers are 7th.  That has been key to both of their successes this season. 

It’s no surprise the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Bucks and Pacers have combined for 219 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219.5-point total. 

Milwaukee beat Indiana 102-83 in their first meeting this season for just 185 combined points.  And the Bucks aren’t at full strength right now as they will be without PG Eric Bledsoe and his 15 PPG and likely Wesley Mathews as well.  Jeremy Lamb and Domantas Sabonis are questionable for Indiana. 

The UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 28-9-1 in Pacers last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +9.5 

The Seattle Seahawks are the most fraudulent 11-3 team I’ve ever seen.  They have only outscored opponents by a total of 26 points on the season.  They are 10-1 in games decide by one score, so they have been lucky in close games.  Only once have they won a game by more than 8 points all season. 

A lot of people will tell you it’s because Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’.  But Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career prior to this season.  Getting Arizona catching more than one score here is a tremendous value that we’re going to capitalize on Sunday. 

The Seahawks have a ton of injuries right now that are holding them back, too.  On defense, they’ll be without DE Jadeveon Clowney, NT Al Woods and S Quandre Diggs.  They have key injuries on all three levels of their defense.  Offensively, they will be without LT Duane Brown, and they just lost star WR Josh Gordon to a suspension. 

The Seahawks can afford to lose this game and they’d still win the division if they beat the 49ers next week.  That makes this a huge lookahead spot for them.  Everything will be on the line next week, not this week.  And we’ve seen the Seahawks throw up some duds all season at home.  They only beat the Bengals by 1, lost to the Saints, lost to the Ravens, only beat the Rams by 1, and needed OT to beat the Bucs.  They haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points yet this season. 

I can’t give the Seahawks much respect because they don’t deserve it with how poor their defense is.  Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 378.3 yards per game. Arizona just hung 38 points on Cleveland last week and will be able to move the ball and score points on this Seattle D.  The back door will always be open if we need it. 

The Cardinals have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 4-1-1 ATS.  And that one push was when they led San Francisco the entire way until the final seconds and gave up a lateral return TD that turned a lead into a 10-point loss as 10-point dogs.  They only lost by 6 at Baltimore, beat the Bengals and Giants outright, and lost by 3 at Tampa.  Their only blowout road loss came to the Saints. 

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Cardinals are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Seattle.  Arizona is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +18 

The Houston Cougars returned just one starter from a great team last year.  They have been overvalued all season.  They have upset losses to BYU and Oklahoma State at home, and they have struggled to put teams away. 

Portland can hang with Houston.  The Pilots are 8-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with their largest loss coming by 11 points.  Terry Porter is doing a good job with this program.  The Pilots only lost by 11 at USC as 23-point favorites, and they pulled the upset at Portland State as 6.5-point dogs. 

The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Pilots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take Portland Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3 

The Tennessee Titans would be out of the playoffs if their season ended today.  They are tied with the Steelers for the 6th seed, but currently lose out on the tiebreaker.  They are in must-win mode this week, and have been since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  And they’ve delivered. 

The Titans are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Last week’s loss to Houston was misleading.  A receiver dropped a Tannehill pass on the goal line that was intercepted and returned 90 yards to set up an easy score for the Texans.  It was the difference in the game in a 24-21 win by Houston. 

Tannehill is completing 71.5% of his passes with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per attempt.  The Titans having the threat of the pass with Tannehill and his underrated targets has opened things up for the running game here in the second half of the season.  They have averaged 174 rushing yards per game in their last six games. 

The Saints will be working on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football.  It’s definitely a potential letdown spot after Drew Brees set the all-time passing TD record and the highest completion percentage every in a single game.  The Colts simply did not show up after their deflating loss to the Bucs the previous week that pretty much knocked them out of contention. 

The Titans will be able to exploit some injuries on the Saints’ defense that the Colts could not.  The Saints lost top pass rusher Marcus Davenport and top run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries two weeks ago against the 49ers.  They have injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary of note as well. 

New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in.  The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. 

Plays on home teams off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 28-8 ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Titans Sunday. 

20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -6.5 

I was on the Atlanta Falcons against the 49ers last week as my 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR.  I recognized it was a huge flat spot for them after playing the Packers, Ravens & Saints in three consecutive weeks, and with games against the division rival Rams and Seahawks on deck.  And the 49ers lost outright. 

I think we will look back and see that was a loss they needed to get humbled.  They could afford that loss, it didn’t hurt them at all.  Now they can’t afford another loss.  It’s simple for the 49ers now.  Win out and they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC.  They are in control of their own destiny, and I know they’ll put their best foot forward today because of it, and it will be good enough to beat the Rams by 7 points or more. 

The Rams suffered a devastating 21-44 loss to the Cowboys last week.  Now they have about a 3% chance to make the playoffs.  They need to win out and have the Vikings lose out to make the playoffs.  It’s simply not going to happen, they know it, I know it, we all know it.  So I don’t expect a very good effort from the Rams here after they just had their dreams crushed with that loss to Dallas. 

It wasn’t just any loss, either.  The Cowboys throttled them 44-21.  And the Rams got two garbage touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to make the score appear better than it really was.  Their defense was shredded for 475 total yards, and their offense only managed 289 total yards with the majority of that coming on their final two drives of the game. 

Jared Goff was playing awful before he hit his thumb on a Cowboys’ helmet.  He became check down Charlie after that.  I think his thumb is a real problem that’s not being talked about much at all.  Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to get some key players back from injury this week, including CB Richard Sherman. 

San Francisco beat the Rams 20-7 on the road as 3-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That game was even more of a blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers held the Rams to just 10 first downs and 165 total yards.  They sacked Goff four times and pressured him 22 more times while limiting him to 56 passing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 2.3 yards per attempt. 

When the Rams have stepped up in class this season, they have gotten throttled.  They had that 20-7 loss to the 49ers, that 21-44 loss to the Cowboys, and don’t forget they lost 6-45 to Baltimore a few weeks back.  When Goff is pressured, he folds, and we’ve seen it time and time again.  The Rams simply can’t hang with the top teams in the NFL, and they won’t hang with the 49ers this week, either. 

The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Los Angeles is 22-46 ATS in its last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the 49ers Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings PK 

It’s a bad spot for both the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  Both teams played last night in road losses to the Pacers and Cavs, respectively.  But it’s clearly a worse spot for the Grizzlies, and the Kings are the better team in this matchup, so getting them at a pick ‘em is a great value. 

Sacramento had two days off prior to that game at Indiana.  So the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 4 days here.  Memphis will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I trust the Kings will have more in the tank than the Grizzlies as a result. 

The Kings are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS off a non-conference game this season.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two years.  Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss.  The Kings are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

15* Saturday Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Boise State UNDER 49 

This game between Washington and Boise State will be played close to the vest.  Washington coach Chris Petersen has said he will retire following this game.  And he takes on his former team in Boise State.  This game means a lot to both teams, and I think defense wins out. 

These are two very good defenses as Washington allows just 20.4 points per game this season, while Boise State gives up only 20.6 points per game.  Washington held opponents to 8.0 points per game less than their season averages this season, while Boise State limited foes to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages. 

Helping out this UNDER will be two key players who are sitting out for Washington.  LT Trey Adams will sit out to prepare for the NFL.  But the bigger loss is TE Hunter Bryant, who will also sit out to get ready for the pros. Bryant is Washington’s leading receiver with 52 receptions for 825 yards on the season.  He will be missed in the passing game. 

Boise State is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Huskies last seven neutral site games as a favorite.  Boise State is 9-1 UNDER after having won six or seven of its last eight games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a conference game over the last two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Evansville +3 

Evansville is off a bad loss at Jacksonville State and will return home highly motivated for a win when they host Murray State today.  This is an Evansville team that upset Kentucky on the road as 24.5-point dogs earlier this season to flash their potential. 

Murray State is just 6-4 this season.  They lost to Drake by 10 and La Salle by 11 on a neutral.  They also lost by 19 at Tennessee and lost at Missouri State.  While Murray State has been great at home, they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all games played on the highway. 

Evansville is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Roll with Evansville Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dayton -5 

The Dayton Flyers are clearly one of the best teams in the country.  They are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS with their only loss coming to Kansas, the No. 1 ranked team in the nation.  I expect Dayton to make easy work of Colorado. 

This Colorado team has been disappointing.  They returned all five starters so expectations were high.  And while they are 9-2 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS.  They lost by 14 to Kansas while Dayton only lost by 6 to Kansas.  Colorado was also upset by Northern Iowa at home, and they really don’t have many good wins. 

I like the rest advantage for Dayton in this one.  They have three days’ rest to get ready for Colorado after last playing on Tuesday.  Colorado just played Prairie View A&M at home on Thursday, so they have only had one day to get ready for Dayton.  That’s not enough prep time to get ready to face at team of Dayton’s caliber. 

Colorado is 1-14 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two years.  Take Dayton Saturday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -3 

This game is technically on a neutral court, but it will definitely feel like a home court for Oklahoma City behind played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  I think we are getting the Cowboys at a discount today as only 3-point favorites over Minnesota. 

The Gophers are definitely in a letdown spot off their shocking upset home win over Ohio State as 7.5-point dogs.  This is a team that just lost by 20 in their previous game at Iowa, so it came out of nowhere.  They also already have losses to Oklahoma, Butler, Utah and DePaul with five losses on the season.  They aren’t nearly as good as they showed against Ohio State. 

Oklahoma State is 8-2 this season and every bit as good as its record.  The Cowboys beat Syracuse by 14 on a neutral and Ole Miss by 41 on a neutral.  They also upset Houston on the road as 7-point dogs.  They’ve had five days off since that win over Houston and will be ready to go tonight. 

The Golden Gophers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a win.  The Golden Gophers are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a dog of 6 points or more.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

20* Bowl BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -3 

I question Florida Atlantic’s motivation.  The Owls lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss, and he took some of his staff with him.  And the players know that Willie Taggart will be their coach next year.  I don’t expect them to take this bowl game too seriously.  Plus, they have to stay at home instead of going to a destination bowl, which I look at as a negative.  Oddsmakers are giving the Owls too many points for home-field advantage. 

SMU was really close to being 12-0 this season.  The Mustangs’ only two losses both came on the road to Memphis and Navy by 6 and 7 points, respectively.  Those are two 10-win teams.  You know that this veteran team that returned 16 starters wants to end their season on a high not with 11 wins.  They will be motivated. 

SMU played a schedule that ranked 75th in the country while FAU played a schedule that ranked 115th.  That’s a 40-spot difference in strength of schedule.  The Mustangs are the most battle-tested team by far, and FAU doesn’t have any wins against a team the caliber of SMU this season.  They lost to Ohio State in the opener by 24, then were thumped by UCF 14-48 at home, a fellow AAC team with SMU.  The Mustangs beat North Texas 49-27, a fellow C-USA team to FAU. 

Sonny Dykes is 14-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  FAU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  We’re getting the better team with the better motivation laying only 3 points in this bowl game, which is a huge discount.  Bet SMU Saturday.

Note: I took SMU -3 before the suspensions came out for FAU.  I still like SMU up to -10.  The suspensions are worth at least 7 points.  FAU will be without its top 3 receivers, including TE Harrison Bryant, the Mackey Award winner for the nation's best TE.  FAU doesn't have another played eligible who caught more than 15 passes this season.  Leading tackler Keke Leroy will be missed.  He had 101 tackles, five forced fumbles and three INT this season.  And leading rusher Malcolm Davidson (711 yards) is out.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10 

The New York Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset both Golden State and Sacramento on the road, and covered in a 6-point loss at 10-point dogs at Denver.  They also crushed Atlanta 143-120 at home last time out. 

The Miami Heat return home from a three-game road trip here.  The Heat are in a letdown spot off their upset win at Philadelphia as 9-point dogs last time out.  They won’t take the Knicks nearly as seriously as they took the 76ers in that huge showdown Wednesday night. 

The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five Friday games.  The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9 

The Boston Celtics should make easy work of the Detroit Pistons tonight.  The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin (16.3 PPG), Luke Kennard (15.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (9.1 PPG).  They have zero chance of making this game competitive with the Celtics without these three guys. 

The Celtics have lost two of their last three coming in, so they won’t be taking the Pistons lightly.  But Boston is also rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 8 days.  The Celtics are 10-1 at home this season, while the Pistons are 4-9 on the road. 

The Celtics are 22-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons, including 15-2 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Detroit is 3-14 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points per game over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

20* Kent State/Utah State Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on Kent State +6 

Kent State will be playing in just their 2nd bowl game since 1972.  They are excited to be here, especially when you look at the gauntlet they had to go through to get here.  They had to face Arizona State, Auburn & Wisconsin all on the road in non-conference play. 

The Golden Flashes opened 3-6 before winning their final three games all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State & Eastern Michigan.  6-6 teams off a SU win as an underdog are 70% ATS since 2000.  This bowl trend makes sense to me because these teams had to pull an upset in their final game to get here, so they clearly want to be here.  And Kent State just pulled three straight upsets.  They have been undervalued all season with an 8-4 ATS mark.  And I think they’re being undervalued again here. 

Utah State went from winning 11 games last year to going just 7-5 this year and having to play Kent State in the Frisco Bowl.  I don’t think they’re too excited to be here.  And clearly their players aren’t taking it too seriously.  QB Jordan Love, RB Gerold Bright & WR Sean Carter were cited for pot possession over the weekend. 

Love is a potential first-round draft pick and has stated he will be skipping his senior season.  But he has struggled this year with a 17-to-16 TD/INT ratio.  Bright is their leading rusher with 827 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Early indications are all three players will play, otherwise we’d see a much bigger line move.  But it’s not going to matter.  If would be an added bonus if they sit. 

The only four teams Utah State beat by more than 6 points this year were Stony Brook, Colorado State, New Mexico and Nevada.  Only one of those was a bowl team in Nevada, and they aren’t very good.  Utah State gave up 35 points per game over their final six games and have a leaky defense.  Kent State has scored at least 30 points in five of its last six and will expose that leaky defense. 

Sean Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games against poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game as the coach of Kent State.  Kent State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS when the total is 63 or higher over the last two seasons.  Bowl teams that won three or fewer games the previous season have gone 16-2 ATS over the last three years in bowl games.  Bet Kent State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Akron -4.5 

John Groce has the Akron Zips playing some great basketball this season.  The Zips are off to an 8-2 start this year with their only losses coming by 10 as 12-point dogs at West Virginia and by 6 as 18-point dogs at Louisville.  If they can hang with both those teams, they can hang with anyone. 

Ron Hunter is also doing a great job in his first season at Tulane.  The Green Wave are off to an 8-2 start as well, but their results aren’t nearly as impressive.  They lost by 14 to Mississippi State on a neutral as 10-pint dogs and were blown out by 24 by Saint Louis on a neutral as 4.5-point dogs. 

Tulane is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Akron is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Roll with Akron Friday. 

15* Buffalo/Charlotte 2019 Bowl Season Opener on Buffalo -6.5 

The Buffalo Bulls are in search of their first bowl win in program history.  The Charlotte 49ers are just happy to be in their first ever bowl game.  I think the Bulls are the superior team in this matchup, and the weather conditions with near-30 mile per hour winds in the Bahamas will favor the Bulls. 

I would argue that Buffalo was the best team in the MAC even though they didn’t win the MAC title.  They went 5-3 in MAC play with all three losses called into question.  They outgained MAC champ Miami Ohio by by 133 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 in their loss to the Redhawks.  They only lost 20-21 to Ohio as 3-point dogs despite outgaining the Bobcats by 37 yards.  And they blew a 27-6 lead to Kent State in the final eight minutes to lost 27-30. 

That’s how close the Bulls were to being 8-0 in MAC play.  Not to mention, they beat Temple 38-22 as 14-point dogs in non-conference, and actually led Penn State at halftime on the road and hung right with the Nittany Lions in the stat department.  They actually outgained Penn State by 72 yards in a misleading final. 

Buffalo comes in having scored 43-plus points in four of their last five games overall.  The Bulls rely on their ground attack that has produced two 1,000-yard rushers.  They rush for 254 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  With the high winds in the Bahamas, the team that runs the ball better will win and cover this game. 

Charlotte also has a solid ground attack at 210 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  However, it’s on defense where Buffalo has the huge advantage.  The Bulls only allow 95 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.  Charlotte gives up a whopping 193 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The 49ers have the better passing attack, but that will be a non-factor in this weather. 

Buffalo is 10-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS off three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Take Buffalo Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

It’s the grudge match tonight between the Clippers and Rockets.  They have split the first two meetings this season with the home team winning reach.  But the Clippers are just now at full strength finally, and I think they will make easy work of the Rockets at home tonight. 

The Clippers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall with their only losses coming on the road.  The Clippers are 14-1 SU & 10-4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  This is a short number for them to be laying at home tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have struggled to put away some bad teams.  They lost outright to the Pistons as 7.5-point home favorites and outright to the Kings as 12-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites over the Suns and 10-point home favorites over the Spurs.  They also let the Cavs take them to the wire as 11.5-point favorites.

The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3 

The Spurs have turned the corner finally and are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 4-3 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the likes of the Clippers and Rockets.  And they only lost by 2 to the Rockets as 10-point road dogs last time out. 

Now the Spurs come in on two days’ rest and will be hosting the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as this will be a tough spot for them.  Not to mention, they needed overtime to put away the Pelicans on Tuesday. 

The Spurs are 21-3 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets.  San Antonio is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 meetings with Brooklyn, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings. 

San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Roll with the Spurs Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +12.5 

I’ve made some good money fading Houston this season and I’ll continue to do so for many of the same reasons tonight.  The Cougars are getting treated like the team they were last year, and not the team that returned just one starter this year and is inexperienced. 

Indeed, Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  That includes an upset loss as an 11.5-point home favorite to BYU, a 12-point loss at Oregon as 7-point dogs, and a 6-point upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 7-point favorites.  The Cougars also failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas-Arlington as 14-point favorites, needed a late comeback to beat Rice by 8 as 13-point road favorites, and failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas State as 12.5-point favorites. 

The Cougars couldn’t get margin against all of those teams, and they certainly won’t get margin against one of the most underrated teams in the country in UTEP tonight.  UTEP returned four starters this season, and head coach Rodney Terry is doing a great job.  The Miners are off to an 8-1 start this season with their only loss coming by 3 at New Mexico State as 5.5-point dogs.  They also beat NMSU, New Mexico and UC-Irvine at home, three quality teams. 

The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UTEP is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Miners are 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UTEP Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -2.5 

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Celtics are coming off two straight tough losses to the Pacers and 76ers in a back-to-back situation.  Now they’ve had a whopping five days off to rest and recover after last playing on December 12th.  It’s safe to say we will get a big effort from the Celtics tonight. 

The Mavericks are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a shocking 120-116 upset win at Milwaukee as 10-point underdogs on Monday.  It’s like the Bucks didn’t take them seriously without Luka Doncic and the Mavericks took advantage.  But they’re going to feel the loss of Doncic sooner rather than later, including tonight. 

You simply don’t replace a player of Doncic’s caliber.  He has been neck-and-neck with Giannis as the favorite to win the MVP up to this point.  Doncic averages 29.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game.  He means everything to the Mavericks. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dallas) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6 or more points per game, after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Dallas.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona State +1.5 

Bobby Hurley is doing a great job at Arizona State.  He has the Sun Devils off to an 8-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Colorado and Virginia (by 3).  They just beat Georgia by 20 and now I expect them to take down Saint Mary’s tonight. 

The Gaels came into the season overvalued due to returning all five starters.  They have gone 9-2 SU but lost to Winthrop at home and Dayton (by 10).  They are just 4-7 ATS and have had some ugly performances.  They only beat Lehigh by 11 as 20.5-point favorites, Nebraska-Omaha by 9 as 15.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois by 12 as 14-point favorites. 

This will essentially be a home game for Arizona State despite technically being on a neutral.  It’s being played at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix.   

The Sun Devils are 10-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  Arizona State is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last three years.  Roll with Arizona State Wednesday. 

15* Tennessee/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +1.5 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a shocking loss to Colgate at home.  It was a clearly letdown spot for them after facing rival Xavier in their previous game and losing a heartbreaker.  Now I fully expect the Bearcats to bring their best effort of the season tonight hosting the 21st-ranked Tennessee Vols. 

Tennessee is being priced like it is the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year.  But the Vols only returned one starter from that squad.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and were just upset at home by rival Memphis as 6-point favorites.  Now the Vols are in a similar flat spot that Cincinnati was just in after facing an in-state rival. 

Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points in their last seven games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more points in their last seven games are 94-51 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Cincinnati Wednesday. 

15* Miami/Temple ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Temple -2 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Maryland by 7 on a neutral as 9-point dogs and to Missouri at home.  They have impressive road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M as well as a dominant neutral site win over Davidson. 

I like how Temple bounced back from that poor loss to Missouri with a 108-61 throttling of rival St. Joe’s as an 11.5-point favorite.  And now the Owls have had a full week to get ready for Miami after last playing on December 10th, giving them six days in between games to prepare. 

Miami only gets two days to get ready for Temple after playing on Saturday in an 88-74 win over Alabama A&M as 26.5-point favorites.  The Gators have some really poor losses this season as they were beaten by 20 by Florida on a neutral and lost by 25 to UConn on a neutral.  They really don’t have a good win on their schedule outside perhaps Illinois. 

Temple is 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 1-10 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years. The Hurricanes are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog.  The Owls are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 neutral site games.  Roll with Temple Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida -4.5 

The Florida Gators started slow this season.  But they’ve turned the corner in going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with a 20-point win over Miami and a 5-point win over Xavier on a neutral.  Their only loss came on the road at Butler during this stretch. 

Now the Gators have had nine days off since that loss to Butler to get ready for Providence.  They are champing at the bit to hit the court tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  Meanwhile, Providence only has two days to get ready for Florida after playing Stony Brook on Saturday. 

This is a very poor Providence team.  The Friars are just 6-5 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  Their six wins have come against Sacred Heart, New Jersey Tech, St. Peters, Merrimack, Pepperdine (by 3) and Stony Brook (by 4).  They lost to Northwestern by 9 as 9-point favorites, lost to Penn by 6 as 15-point favorites, lost outright to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost outright to College of Charleston as 9-point favorites, and weren’t competitive in their 14-point loss at Rhode Island. 

The Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as a favorite.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Florida Tuesday. 

20* Lakers/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5 

The Lakers will be playing their seventh road game in their last eight contests.  They are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They failed to cover in a 3-point win at Miami on Friday and also failed to cover in a 5-point win at Atlanta on Sunday.  I think their winning streak comes to an end Tuesday. 

The Indiana Pacers are playing almost as well as the Lakers right now.  They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall and should not be catching points at home to Los Angeles tonight.  They have gone 6-1 SU at home during this stretch with their only loss to the Clippers. 

The Lakers are dealing with some injuries right now as Kyle Kuzma is expected to sit out, while Anthony Davis is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Hawks.  And this is the ultimate lookahead spot as the Lakers have the Bucks on deck Thursday on TNT.  I expect them to be overlooking the Pacers and looking ahead to that game against Milwaukee. 

The Lakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.  The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

20* Colts/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Indianapolis +10 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts this week.  They have lost five of their last six games overall.  They lost the last three weeks despite holding a second half lead in all three games.  That’s because they have been outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter in their losses to the Titans, Texans & Bucs. 

Four of those five losses came by 4 points or less.  The only one they lost by more than that was their misleading 17-31 loss to Tennessee.  Indianapolis was attempting a FG that would have given them the lead with only five minutes left, but it was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Colts actually outgained the Titans 391 to 292 for the game. 

The Saints are coming off the type of loss that could beat them twice.  They lost a 46-48 shootout to the 49ers at home on a last-second field goal.  They went for two instead of kicking the extra point early in the game, and it probably cost them the game.  I believe this is now a huge flat spot for the Saints, who have basically given home-field advantage to the 49ers now. 

New Orleans has some real big injuries that are getting overlooked on defense right now.  It’s a big reason the 49ers scored 48 points and gained 516 total yards on them last week.  They lost pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries last week against the 49ers.  They were playing without LB’s AJ Klein and Kiko Alonso last week and both are questionable again this week.  This once-stout New Orleans defense has started to show a ton of holes in recent weeks. 

New Orleans is fortunate to be 10-3 this season.  The Saints are 7-1 in one-possession games this season.  Seven of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  I think there’s tremendous value with the Colts catching double-digits because of it. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Indianapolis) - off a close loss by 3 points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.   

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games.  The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.  Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet the Colts Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +10 

The Houston Rockets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as 10-point home favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  This team is not playing well enough right now to warrant laying this big of a number.  The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes upset losses to both the Kings and Pistons. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Spurs, who have been one of the worst covering teams in the NBA this season at 6-18-1 ATS in their 25 games.  The Spurs have won four of their last six coming in over the Clippers, Rockets, Kings and Suns.  They have stepped up in class and shown they can hang. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 

The Toronto Raptors have been struggling here of late without Fred VanVleet, and he’s doubtful again tonight.  They Raptors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two wins came by a single point over the Bills as 6-point road favorites and by 8 over the Nets as 6.5-point home favorites. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown they can step up in class here of late and compete.  They only lost by 6 as 11.5-point home dogs to the Rockets, went on the road and upset the Spurs by 8 as 12-point dogs, and barely failed to cover at Milwaukee.  Now they are catching 12.5-points here to the Raptors, which is too much. 

Toronto is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  The Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Toronto.  Take the Cavaliers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +12 

There’s no doubt you’re paying a premium now to back the 23-3 Los Angeles Lakers.  They have covered five of their last six and are now laying double-digits on the road to the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a game the Hawks will give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s a bad spot for the Lakers.  They are coming off a win in Miami, and there’s a lot of distractions that come along with playing in Miami.  Teams often times come out flat in their next game.  And the Lakers will be playing their 3rd straight road game here and are in the midst of a stretch of eight of their last nine on the road. 

The Hawks have failed to cover three in a row, and it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them.  They’ll show up for the Lakers today.  Kyle Kuzma is out and Lebron James is questionable for the Lakers.  The Hawks are fully healthy outside the suspension to John Collins. 

The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Hawks are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games off a double-digit home loss.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Hawks Sunday. 

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +11.5 

This is a massive letdown spot for the 49ers. They have played three straight games against three of the best teams in the NFL.  They beat the Packers at home before losing to the Ravens on a last-second field goal on the road.  Then they got a last-second field goal of their own to beat the Saints on the road last week. 

That was a 48-46 shootout and it had to take a lot out of them.  Remember, they stayed in Florida last week so they’ve been gone from their families for two weeks.  I usually like fading teams when they come back home off long road trips because there are a lot of distractions they must deal with back home.  And it’s a sandwich spot for them with two huge division games coming up against the Rams and Seahawks the next two weeks. 

The 49ers suffered some key injuries in that win over the Saints, too.  They lost center Weston Richburg for the season.  They also lost DE Dee Ford and CB Richard Sherman to hamstring injuries.  They have a handful of other guys questionable this week, including do-it-all FB Kyle Juszcyk.  They are in about as poor a shape injury-wise as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot for a team that has been banged up all year. 

The Atlanta Falcons continue to battle week in and week out.  They have won three of their last five games and have been competitive in four of them.  They beat the Saints on the road and took the Saints to the wire at home.  They blew out the Panthers on the road and at home.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents. 

The Falcons got back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper last week and promptly put up 40 points and 461 total yards on the Panthers in a 40-20 win.  They will relish this opportunity to face the top team in the NFC and former coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  The 49ers can afford a loss because basically their season is going to come down to their Week 17 game against the Seahawks.  I just think this is a really bad spot for the 49ers, especially asking them to lay double-digits here. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top team that wins 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.  Bet the Falcons Sunday. 

15* Rams/Cowboys NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK 

The Dallas Cowboys just seem content to play bad football knowing that none of these games matter for them.  The only game that matters is next week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  The winner of that game will likely win the NFC East.  The Cowboys have lost three straight games coming in, including upset losses to the Bills and Bears the last two weeks. 

The Los Angeles Rams simply need this game more right now.  The Rams are 8-5 and one game behind the Vikings for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.  They really need to win out if they want to make the playoffs.  They’re playing like a hungry team, too. 

The Rams beat Arizona 34-7 on the road two weeks ago and racked up 549 total yards while limiting the Cardinals to just 198 yards.  And last week they won 28-12 at home over the Seahawks.  They gained 455 total yards on the Seahawks and held them to just 308 yards.  They also held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a pick-6. 

Jared Goff and this Rams offense is now hitting on all cylinders now that he has his full compliment of weapons.  And they are shutting teams down defensively.  I like the matchup for the Rams because stopping the run is the key to stopping the Cowboys.  The Rams rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. 

The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record.  The Rams are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off two straight wins over division opponents.  Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record. 

I know the Rams will show up this week, and I’m convinced the Cowboys are looking ahead to their game against the Eagles next week from what I’ve seen from them.  We’ll back the more motivated team here this afternoon.  Take the Rams Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3 

The Cleveland Browns should not be favored on the road here against the Arizona Cardinals.  The Browns have a laundry list of injuries on their offensive and defensive lines that will make it very difficult for them to beat the Cardinals this week. 

Cleveland is coming off a misleading 27-19 home win over the awful Cincinnati Bengals.  They deserved to lose that game, but the Bengals gave it to them.  Cincinnati racked up 453 total yards and held Cleveland to just 323 yards in the game.  But the Bengals either turned it over on downs or settled for field goals too many times in the red zone.  To give up 453 yards to the Bengals is a bad sign for this Cleveland defense. 

Arizona hung tough at home against Pittsburgh last week in a 17-23 loss.  The difference in that game was a special teams touchdown for the Steelers.  And after facing three great defenses in a row in the 49ers, Rams and Steelers, Kyler Murray and company are ready to bust out here against this soft Cleveland defense this week. 

Arizona is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home loss.  The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +7 

The Houston Cougars lost a ton of talent from last year.  I’ve been fading them with success as they returned just one starter, but are being priced like the team they were last season.  The Cougars are 7-2 but just 3-5 ATS in their lined games. 

Oklahoma State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are also 7-2 and returned all five starters from last year.  I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on this team off back-to-back upset losses to Georgetown and Wichita State. 

Those losses followed up impressive showings in an 86-72 upset win over Syracuse on a neutral and a dominant 78-37 win over Ole Miss on a neutral as well.  I have no doubt the Cowboys will be highly motivated to bounce back today, and they will be fresh and ready to go as they last played a week ago today. 

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday. 

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans are playing as well as anyone in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This run has moved them into a first place tie with the Houston Texans in the AFC South.  Now they have their chance to pull ahead as they host the Texans today. 

If the Titans were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week.  It didn’t happen.  The Titans handled their business by crushing the Raiders 42-21 on the road.  That game was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Titans racked up 552 total yards on the Raiders as their offense continues to thrive. 

Tannehill is completing 73.4% of his passes for 1,993 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio and a 118.5 QBR this season.  Derrick Henry has really gotten going on the ground as the Titans have rushed for at least 121 yards in five straight games and an average of 176 rushing yards per game during this stretch. 

Now the Titans should continue to have success against a soft Houston defense that simply hasn’t been very good without JJ Watt.  The Texans gave up 448 total yards to the Patriots two weeks ago and 38 points and 391 yards to a bad Broncos offense last week.  They give up 23.8 points per game on the season and are worst than that of late.  The Titans only allow 19.6 points per game on the year and clearly have the better defense in this matchup. 

Tennessee is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Houston is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more over the last two years.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Titans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10 

I always like fading teams off an upset win over the New England Patriots.  That’s the case for the Chiefs, who were aided by the refs in their 23-16 win at New England last week.  Now the Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and this is a massive letdown spot for them.  They got their revenge on the Patriots from their playoff loss last year, and now they’ll relax. 

We saw the same thing happen to the Houston Texans last week.  Off their upset win over the Patriots, they promptly lost outright as nearly double-digit favorites at home to the Denver Broncos.  Now the Broncos get to play the role of spoiler again and they come in here with some momentum. 

Indeed, the Broncos throttled the Texans 38-24.  It was an even bigger blowout than that as the Broncos led by as many as 28 points.  They racked up 391 total yards on the Texans, and rookie QB Drew Lock was brilliant.  He went 22-of-27 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.  Now Lock should continue to have success against his soft Kansas City defense. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

The Chiefs have consistency been overvalued at home here of late.  They have lost three of their last five home games outright.  The Broncos are 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos only have three double-digit losses this season.  Bet the Broncos Sunday. 

15* Gonzaga/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2 

I’ll side with the home team laying the short number in this Top 25 matchup.  The Arizona Wildcats are 10-1 this season, including 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home.  They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 30.2 points per game at home this season. 

Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season.  They did win both, but those were against Washington and Texas A&M.  They lost by 18 to Michigan on a neutral and only beat Oregon by 1.  I think this is the toughest test for the Bulldogs yet as it’s the only game they haven’t been favored in.  Arizona is favored for good reason here. 

The Wildcats are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Arizona Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7 

This is a very tough spot for the Houston Rockets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have to travel from Orlando back to Houston overnight and won’t have a whole lot left in the. Tank for the Detroit Pistons. 

The Pistons had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.  Making matters worse for the Rockets is that they were already without Eric Gordon, but now they will be without Russell Westbrook tonight, plus Tyson Chandler is questionable.  The Pistons are fully healthy outside of Reggie Jackson. 

Plays against any team (Houston) - a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5 

The Denver Nuggets are currently undervalued because they went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS over a six-game stretch where five of six games were on the road.  I cashed them in when they returned home as 8-point favorites in a 15-point win over the Blazers.   

I think the Nuggets remain undervalued here as only 6.5-point home favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Pepsi Center has been a house of horrors for opponents as Denver had the best home-court advantage in the NBA last year.  The Nuggets are 9-3 at home this season as well. 

Few teams have owned the Thunder like the Nuggets have.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Thunder.  They won all four meetings last year with OKC all by 7 points or more.  And that was when the Thunder were actually good with Paul George and Russell Westbrook.  Take the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy -10 

The Navy Midshipmen have a chance to win 10 games with a victory over Army.  And you can bet they want revenge from three straight losses to the Black Knights by seven points or less.  It’s time for the Midshipmen to return to their dominance in this series. 

It has been a tremendous bounce-back season for Navy.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their 11 games this year, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.  Their offense has lit up opponents for 39.3 points per game, and their defense is greatly improved in allowing just 24.2 points per game. 

Army has come back down to early this season with a 5-7 record.  They will not be going to a bowl game after losing by 21 at Hawaii in their final game of the season, which was a poor showing against a Rainbow Warriors team that didn’t have anything to play for.  Army had everything to play for as they needed a win there to make a bowl game.  They wouldn't get in at 6-7 now. 

Army went 5-7 despite playing the 124th-ranked schedule in the country according to Sagarin.  Navy played a much tougher slate in the AAC as their schedule ranked 73rd.  Navy is also 18 points better than Army on a neutral field according to Sagarin, and I have to agree he’s pretty close.  That’s why I’m laying the double-digits here with the Midshipmen, among the other motivational reasons. 

Navy is holding opponents to just 110 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  They are holding foes to 63 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season average.  Army is giving up 4.2 per carry this season and hasn’t faced many good rushing attacks.  Army is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

20* Memphis/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7 

This number is simply too high for a rivalry game between Tennessee and Memphis.  I think Memphis is legitimately one of the best teams in the country with what Penny Hardaway has done in recruiting.  And that will show on the court tonight. 

I’m not sold on this Tennessee team because they only returned one starter from last year and aren’t nearly as good as the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  The Vols are 7-1, but they have yet to play a true road game, and they lost to the best team they have faced in Florida State.  They only other two decently hard games were wins over Washington and VCU on a neutral. 

The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Vols are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Memphis Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Houstons Rockets barely survived the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers on the road Wednesday in a 116-110 win as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Rockets are laying 6.5 points on the road to the Orlando Magic and they shouldn’t be.  I’ll take the value with the Magic at home tonight. 

The Rockets have failed to cover three straight and four of their last five.  They have some key injuries right now as they are playing without two of their best guards in Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers.  They can’t be trusted to lay points on the road here against an Orlando Magic team that is playing well right now. 

Indeed, the Magic have won four of their last six with their only losses coming to the Bucks and Lakers, which are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.  They were competitive in both games as each loss came by single-digits.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Orlando is 23-9 ATS after covering four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  The Magic are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -6 

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in and it’s understandable considering they played five of their last six on the road.  Now they are back in the Pepsi Center where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

We know we’re going to get a big effort from the Nuggets here, which is a big factor when handicapping the NBA.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season and are 8-3 at home this year.  They should be able to handle the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. 

The Blazers have been hit hard by injuries this season as they remain without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins and Rodney Hood.  Injuries prompted them to sign Carmelo Anthony.  The Blazers are just 10-15 this season, including 5-9 on the road.  They are nowhere near as good as they were last season when they made a deep run in the playoffs. 

Plays against underdogs (Portland) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a team with a winning record are 71-35 (67%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Denver is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to get way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 6 points to a solid Detroit Pistons team that is as healthy as they have been all season now. 

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to arguably the best team in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks.  They beat San Antonio by 34 at home and Cleveland by 33 on the road.  They also upset Indiana by 7 at home and won at New Orleans.  I really like the way this team is playing right now. 

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and have consistently had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons.  The Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days’ rest.  That break actually wasn’t good for them as it halted the momentum they had. 

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  They are winning by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday. 

20* Jets/Ravens AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +17 

The Baltimore Ravens are the most public team in the NFL right now due to their nine-game winning streak and their 11-2 record, which is the best in the AFC.  This line has gotten out of control as a result, and there’s clearly value on the Jets catching more than two touchdowns tonight. 

The Ravens are coming off two very physical games against San Francisco and Buffalo.  They needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers at home, and they were fortunate to cover by getting a red zone stand in the closing seconds of a 24-17 win over the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week. 

I think this is a letdown spot for the Ravens now.  Not to mention they will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Matt Skura and T Ronnie Stanley.  Leading receiver Mark Andrews is battling a knee injury.  QB Lamar Jackson just showed up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, so I think the Ravens will be careful with him.  And without Jackson at 100% and the whole playbook available, it will be tough for the Ravens to cover this massive spread. 

I like the fact that the Ravens know they can lose this game and still be in 1st place in the AFC.  Knowing they have that in their hip pocket will make them not be as motivated as they have been up to this point to put themselves in this enviable position.  Meanwhile, the Jets will be treating this game like their Super Bowl with the chance to go toe-to-toe with the top team in the AFC. 

It’s not like the Jets are the worst team in the NFL, which is what this line basically indicates.  The Jets are actually 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  I know it hasn’t come against the greatest competition, but this team is still battling hard and trying to win every game.  Sam Darnold has found a connection with Robby Anderson on offense, and the defense continues playing at a very high level. 

The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping the run, and that makes this an excellent matchup for the Jets.  New York ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game.  More importantly, the Jets rank 1st in the league in giving up just 3.0 yards per carry.  They have far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL when you look at the numbers as a whole. 

Baltimore is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. teams that commit 60-plus penalty yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bet the Jets Thursday. 

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -4 

The Iowa State Cyclones should be bigger favorites here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Hilton Magic is for real, and the Cyclones are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS inside Hilton Coliseum this season, winning by 22.0 points per game on average.  They just beat a ranked Seton Hall team 76-66 at home, and now they’ll make easy work of this unranked Hawkeyes squad. 

I’ve just seen too many poor performances from the Hawkeyes this season to trust them on the road here.  Iowa lost by 15 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  They were beaten by 10 by San Diego State on a neutral in Las Vegas.  And they gave up 103 points to Michigan two games ago, which was the most points scored by the Wolverines in a Big Ten game since 1998. 

Hilton Coliseum has been a house of horrors for the Hawkeyes.  Indeed, Iowa hasn’t won at Hilton Coliseum since 2003.  The Cyclones have won eight straight home meetings with the Hawkeyes.  They want revenge from a bad road loss to Iowa last year, and they should get that revenge with a win and cover at home tonight. 

The Hawkeyes are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Iowa is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after going under the total in their previous game.  Steve Prohm is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Iowa State, and 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points in all games he has coached.  Take Iowa State Thursday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois -1 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Miami and Maryland by a combined 3 points to fall to 6-3 on the season.  Their other loss this year came on the road at Arizona. 

The loss to Maryland was extra painful.  They led most the way then gave up a 3-pointer to tie in the closing seconds and fouled Maryland with only a couple seconds left and lost on a free throw.  They fell 58-59 as 10-point road dogs.  Maryland is the No. 4 ranked team in the country, so it showed what Illinois is capable of. 

Now the Fighting Illini get to host No. 5 Michigan.  This is a Wolverines team that has done most of its damage at home or on a neutral.  In their only true road game this season, the Wolverines lost 43-58 at Louisville as 6-point dogs.  Now they have to go on the highway for only the second time this season and face an Illinois team that is 5-1 at home and winning by 24.6 points per game. 

Illinois is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assets per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on home teams (Illinois) off two straight close losses by 3 points or less against an opponent that scored 85 points or more last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Illinois Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight as 9.5-point favorites.  It’s their highest favorite role all season, and only the 2nd time in 24 games that they’ve been favored by more than 4.5 points. 

This number had been adjusted for the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But this is a young team that won’t be affected as much by this situation.  And I think what will energize the Hornets tonight is playing with double-revenge, two losses to Brooklyn since November 20th.  It will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks, and I look for the Hornets to put their best foot forward tonight. 

Charlotte is 8-1 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5 

The defensive intensity in this game tonight is going to stellar.  Kawhi Leonard returns to Toronto for the first time since leaving in free agency for the Clippers.  Both teams will want this game very badly, and I expect it to show on the defensive end. 

We actually saw it in the first meeting this season in Los Angeles.  The Clippers pulled away late to win 98-88 as 9.5-point favorites.  That game saw just 186 combined points with a 220.5-point total, and now they’ve set the total too high again here at 221.5.  Both teams rank in the Top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team (LA Clippers) - in a game involving two good teams that win between 60% and 75% of their games in December games are 62-18 (77.5%) over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 20-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games off an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -1 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight road losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan State.  They were competitive in both games and the Spartans had to pull away late to win 77-65 as 14-point favorites. 

There’s no question this Rutgers program is headed in the right direction under Steve Pikiell.  All three of their losses have come on the road this season.  The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 at home and winning by nearly 20 points per game. 

Wisconsin is 0-4 in all neutral and road games this season.  The Badgers lost to St. Mary’s, Richmond (by 10), New Mexico (by 9) and NC State (by 15) in their four games played away from home.  And coming off a big home win over Indiana, I look at this as a letdown spot for the Badgers. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being Wisconsin’s overtime win at Rutgers as 16-point favorites in 2017.  Rutgers won 64-60 at home against Wisconsin in 2018 and pulled the upset as 15-point home dogs in 2015. 

Rutgers is 15-6 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +9.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as 9.5-point road dogs to the Colorado Buffaloes.  This is a loaded UNI team that finished strong in the second half of the season last year and should have won the MVC Tournament.  They returned four starters from that squad. 

The Panthers have opened 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  Their only loss came on the road at West Virginia 55-60 as 6.5-point underdogs.  They had a double-digit lead in that game as well before giving up the lead in the final seconds. 

I think Colorado is overvalued due to being ranked No. 24 in the country.  That has certainly shown here of late as the Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they are coming off a 14-point loss at Kansas on Saturday, so they have just two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.  It’s a hangover spot because they won’t be nearly as motivated to face UNI as they were Kansas. 

Northern Iowa comes in on seven days’ rest last playing on December 2nd.  It’s safe to say head coach Ben Jacobson will have his team ready for Colorado tonight.  The Buffaloes will be in for a bigger fight than they bargained for against this gritty Panthers team.  Take Northern Iowa Tuesday. 

20* Nuggets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4 

The Philadelphia 76ers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by 13.2 points pre game.  Getting them as only 4-point home favorites over the struggling Denver Nuggets is a gift from oddsmakers tonight.  We’ll take advantage. 

The Nuggets are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the Knicks. They have lost three road games to the Kings, Celtics and Nets during this stretch, so I don’t see how they are going to hang with the 76ers tonight. 

Philadelphia wants revenge from a 97-100 road loss at Denver in their first meeting this season.  The 76ers blew a 15-point halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Philadelphia is 28-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons. 

The home team has won four straight in this series.  The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.  Denver is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday. 

15* Maryland/Penn State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State PK 

The Maryland Terrapins are ranked No. 4 in the country after their 10-0 start this season.  They are overvalued now as they have taken advantage of a schedule that has seen them play just one true road game, which was an 80-73 win at Harvard as 10-point favorites.   

The Terrapins will suffer their first loss this season tonight at Penn State.  Maryland nearly lost its last game as a 10-point home favorite over Illinois, escaping with a 59-58 win after hitting a 3-pointer in the final seconds to tie it, and then getting the ball back and getting fouled just before the buzzer.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

Penn State is loaded this season with four returning starters.  The Nittany Lions are off to a 7-2 start and one of their losses came after a 20-point blown lead to Ole Miss.  The other was a road loss to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes look like the best team in the country right now.  Penn State is 5-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 23.4 points per game. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Penn State beat Maryland 78-61 at home last year as 1.5-point dogs.  The Nittany Lions are 13-2 ATS off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists over the last three seasons.  Penn State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Roll with Penn State Tuesday. 

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3 

The Golden State Warriors now have both D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green back healthy.  They are playing some more competitive basketball as a result and should be able to handle the lowly Memphis Grizzlies at home tonight. 

This is a good spot for the Warriors, who come in on two days’ rest and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Warriors beat the Grizzlies 114-95 on the road on November 19th.  It should be more of the same at home this time around. 

The Grizzlies are dealing with some injuries right now to Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clark.  It’s a Grizzlies team playing some really poor basketball right now.  They have gone 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Grizzlies are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies and 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings against Memphis.  Take the Warriors Monday. 

20* Giants/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +10 

The New York Giants would love nothing more than to wreck the Philadelphia Eagles’ season.  The Eagles are doing plenty of that on their own, and there’s no way they should be double-digit favorites here against a division rival. 

The Eagles are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to the Patriots 10-17 at home and to the Seahawks 9-17 at home.  And last week was the ultimate embarrassment, giving up 37 points in a loss to the Dolphins as 10-point road favorites.  There are problems on the Eagles that aren’t fixable, and especially in their secondary. 

The Giants should be motivated here with the return of Eli Manning at quarterback.  They want to send their veteran out the right way, and Manning wants to prove that he can still get it done.  Playing this soft Eagles secondary will certainly help matters.  Plus, the Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate from injury this week to give Manning another weapon. 

The Giants are coming off a misleading 13-31 home loss to the Packers.  Daniel Jones gave the game away with interceptions as the Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0.  But the Giants only gave up 322 total yards to the Packers and actually outshined them by 13 yards in the game. 

New York has always been a better road team than home team.  The Giants are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field.  The Eagles haven’t beaten the Giants by more than 5 points in any of the last three meetings in Philadelphia.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -5.5 

The Toronto Raptors have lost three straight for the first time all season.  The three losses came to the Heat, Rockets and 76ers, who are three of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they’ll be highly motivated and should get back on track with a win and cover against the lowly Chicago Bulls tonight. 

The Bulls are in a tough spot as they are coming off an overtime loss to the Heat in Miami last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Raptors will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off prior to playing the 76ers last night and will have more left in the tank than the Bulls. 

The Raptors simply own the Bulls with 10 straight wins over Chicago in this series.  The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Chicago winning by 24, 23, 39, 24 and 9 points.  They have won those five games by an average of 23.8 points per game. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Raptors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Chicago is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog.  The Bulls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering three of their last four ATS.  Roll with the Raptors Monday. 

20* Seton Hall/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -2.5 

I love the spot for the Iowa State Cyclones tonight.  They are out for revenge from a 76-84 loss to Seton Hall in the Bahamas.  Now they get the Pirates at home this time around inside Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. 

The Cyclones are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Their only non-cover was by 0.5 points.  It will be just the second true road game of the season for the Pirates tonight. 

Iowa State is 28-4 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Roll with Iowa State Sunday. 

20* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams +1 

The Seattle Seahawks have the worst point differential (+36) of any 10-2 or better team in the history of the NFL.  That’s because they have gone 9-1 in one-score games this year.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games and are nowhere near as good as their record as a result.  This is more like a 7-5 team at best. 

A lot of Seahawks backers will say that Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’ so they should win more close games.  That’s simply not true.  In fact, coming into this season, Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career.  The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a fraudulent, fortunate team that is now overvalued due to their record. 

The Seahawks were 1.5-point home favorites in their first meeting with the Rams this season.  Now they are 1-point road favorites.  If you adjust for home-field advantage, which is usually close to a 6-point swing, the Seahawks should be 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch.  I think there’s a ton of value getting the Rams as home underdogs tonight. 

Keep in mind the Rams deserved to beat the Seahawks in that first meeting.  They lost 29-30 only after Greg Zurlein missed a 43-yard field goal in the final seconds that would have won the game for the Rams.  Now, Los Angeles wants revenge on the Seahawks, and their season is essentially on the line tonight.  The Seahawks can afford to lose this game knowing that they have a later meeting with the 49ers that will likely decide the division champ. 

The Rams are as healthy as they’ve been all season as Jared Goff now has his full compliment of weapons on offense.  That showed last week as the Rams went into Arizona and won 34-7 against a Cardinals team off their bye week.  The Rams racked up 549 total yards in the win while holding the Cardinals to just 198 total yards, outgaining them by 351 yards.  Goff went 32-of-43 passing for 424 yards with two touchdowns in the win, and Todd Gurley carried 19 times for 95 yards and a score to prove he is just fine health-wise. 

This game means everything to Rams because they have tough road games at Dallas and San Francisco coming up the next two weeks.  If they want to make the playoffs, they have to win this game.  And they should be fresh after blowing out the Cardinals.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a short week here after playing in a grueling, physical 37-30 home win against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday. 

The Seahawks are frauds because they rank 24th in total defense in allowing 368.9 yards per game this season.  And Goff and the Rams always diced up this defense.  They have scored 29 or more points in four straight games against the Seahawks while averaging 35 points per game in those four meetings.  And stopping the run is the key to stopping the Seahawks.  The Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 3.7 yards per carry. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Seattle) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS when playing on six or fewer days’ rest this season.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 NFC games.  Sean McVay is 6-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes time of possession and 24-plus first downs last game as the coach of the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +14.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their only losses coming by 6 to St. Bonaventure on a neutral and by 11 at Pittsburgh.  They can stay within 14.5 points of the Michigan State Spartans tonight. 

The Spartans are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS and came into the season as the No. 1 ranked team.  They are far from it.  They were upset by Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Duke and failed to put away teams like Seton Hall, Georgia and UCLA.  They only have two wins all season by more than 13 points. 

Making matters worse for the Spartans are the injuries.  They are without both Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts, who were expected to be two of their best players coming into the season.  Joey Hauser being ruled ineligible also hurt them. 

The Scarlet Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Rutgers has lost by 11 points or fewer in each of their last four meetings with the Spartans while going 3-1 ATS.  Bet Rutgers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7 

The Miami Heat have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-6 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in all games this year.  They have been unstoppable at home, going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS while winning by 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Chicago Bulls have been overrated all season.  They are 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in their 23 games this year.  The Bulls are coming off an ugly upset home loss to the Warriors and should be double-digit road dogs here to the Miami Heat. 

Chicago is 15-30 ATS in road games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Bulls spent last night in South Beach, so you can only imagine what they got into.  The Heat improve to 10-0 at home this season with another blowout win over the Bulls.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -2.5 

The Charlotte Hornets need to be favored by more than 2.5 points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  We’ll take advantage and side with the Hornets, who have been undervalued basically all season and consistently lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. 

The Hawks are 1-11 SU In their last 12 games overall with their only win coming at home against the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are missing some key players right now as John Collins remains suspended and De’Andre Hunter is out.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are fully healthy. 

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games this season.  Atlanta is 2-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Take the Hornets Sunday. 

15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in. 

This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win.  They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis.  It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves. 

The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs.  They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards.  It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it. 

Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season.  They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs.  Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done. 

This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans.  They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South.  Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week.  In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week.  I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week. 

Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss.  Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6 

This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday.  That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.  The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week.  And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.

Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers.  And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full.  The betting public just continues to hammer this team.  I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.

The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year.  And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now.  Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.

Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday.  That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs.  Yet nobody wants to believe in them.  I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.

The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league.  The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games.  Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on.  The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5 

It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago.  The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.  

 It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now.  Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets.  They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable. 

The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week.  They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards. 

The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.  The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents.  The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts +3.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost four of their last five games coming in.  And it’s a great spot to ’sell high’ on the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have won three of their last four coming in. 

The Colts’ four losses here recently can all be explained.  They lost to three potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Titans.  They had Brian Hoyer at QB for two of those losses to Miami and Pittsburgh.  They played the Texans tough in a 3-point road loss.  And last week’s 17-31 loss to the Titans was misleading as they had a 10-point swing when they were kicking a FG to go in the lead and had it blocked and returned for a TD with five minutes left.  They also outgained the Titans by 99 yards and deserved to win. 

The Bucs are playing much better, but keep in mind their three wins during this stretch came against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals, Falcons and Jaguars.  Their lone loss was a 17-34 home loss to the Saints.  Now the Bucs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 3.5-point favorites here against a playoff contender in the Colts. 

This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ type of game for the Colts.  They need a win to stay alive to win the AFC South, and they should get some help this week with the return of Marlon Mack at running back.  The Colts racked up 391 total yards on the Titans last week and now get Mack back.  They should be able to dice up a weak Tampa Bay defense that give up 28.8 points per game overall. 

The Bucs have actually played their worst football at home this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this year with their only win coming 30-27 over the Cardinals in comeback fashion.  They are giving up 31.0 points per game at home.  The Colts have the much better defense and have been competitive on the road, giving up just 21.2 points per game on the highway this year and 21.4 points per game overall. 

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Bucs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South opponents.  The Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Tampa Bay is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

I really like this UNDER tonight between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  And familiarity almost always favors the defenses because they know what to expect from the offenses. 

Not to mention, the first two meetings in this series went UNDER the total with combined scores of 213 points on November 15th and 197 points on November 29th.  Now, oddsmakers have somehow set this total way higher than it should be at 219 points in the 3rd meeting. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of their last 44 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 44-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Marquette/Kansas State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State PK 

For starters, Marquette player of the year candidate Markus Howard (26.0 PPG) is questionable to play tonight.  He sat out their last game with a concussion and is questionable to play again today.  The good news is I like Kansas State regardless of whether or not he plays, it would just be a bonus if he doesn’t. 

Marquette has been solid on a neutral and at home with the exception of a 21-point loss to Maryland.  But in their lone true road game, the Golden Eagles were blasted by a mediocre 4-4 Wisconsin team 61-77 as 2-point dogs.  And they will get blasted by Kansas State today as well. 

The Wildcats have only lost on a neutral this season.  They are 4-0 at home and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are once again a dominant defensive team this year, holding opponents to 58.4 points per game overall and 54.2 points per game at home. 

Marquette is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 12.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -3 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It’s almost criminal that they aren’t ranked yet.  They are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral to Maryland by 7 as 9-point dogs.  That’s a Maryland team that is ranked No. 3 in the country. 

Temple also has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat USC 70-61 as 9-point dogs.  They went on the road and beat Texas A&M 65-42 as 5-point favorites.  And they crushed Davidson 66-53 on a neutral as only 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 3-point favorites here Saturday against Missouri. 

The Tigers are just 4-4 this season and come in off a string of very disappointing showings.  They lost 52-63 to Butler on a neutral as 2-point favorites.  They were also upset as 1.5-point favorites against Oklahoma 66-77 on a neutral.  And they were just upset at home by Charleston Southern 60-68 as 23.5-point favorites.  This team is clearly overrated. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 11.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +11 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  It’s Year 3 under Brad Underwood, and this is where good head coaches make their mark.  Underwood is certainly impressing thus far in Year 3. 

The Fighting Illini returned four starters from last year and added in a great recruiting class.  They are off to a 6-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to Arizona and at home to Miami.  They’ll be highly motivated for their Big Ten opener against No. 3 Maryland tonight. 

The Terrapins are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as double-digit favorites over this solid Illinois squad.  They have narrow wins over Temple and Harvard by 7 points apiece, and I think they are in for a fight tonight.  Especially since Maryland only has two days to get ready for Illinois after playing Notre Dame on Wednesday, while Illinois has four days to get ready while being off since Monday. 

Illinois pulled the 78-67 upset over Maryland as 8.5-point dogs last year.  Maryland hasn’t beaten Illinois by more than 6 since 2016.  The Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. Take Illinois Saturday. 

20* Georgia/LSU SEC Championship No-Brainer on LSU -6.5 

LSU has been one of the three best teams in college football all season.  The Tigers have had few scares and have been in control in basically every game they’ve played from start to finish.  Their high-powered offense has only gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Tigers have scored 46 or more points in four straight games, including wins over Alabama & Texas A&M.  They are scoring 48.7 points per game and averaging 560.4 yards per game on the season.  It’s the best offense in school history, and not one I want to step in front of right now.  It will be the best offense that Georgia has seen yet this season, and it’s not really even close.  They certainly haven’t faced a QB and passing attack near the caliber of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and company.

Georgia definitely has one of the best defenses in the land.  But I question if Jake Fromm can keep up with LSU.  The Bulldogs have scored 27 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  Ed Orgeron said his defense hadn’t shown its best stuff yet heading into the Texas A&M game last week.  And the Tigers promptly beat the Aggies 50-7 and held them to 159 yards while forcing 3 turnovers.  A lot of the yardage and points the Tigers have given up have been in blowouts this season, so their season-long stats are a little misleading.  When they need stops, they can get them.

Georgia will be missing its leading receiver George Pickens for the 1st half due to suspension.  He has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six touchdowns this year.  Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager is now out for the season with an ankle injury.  He has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four scores.  Not having these two will make Fromm’s job even more difficult.  Plus, leading rusher D’Andre Swift (1,203 yards, 7 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  One bad hit and he could be out of this game.

Ed Orgeron is 6-0 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams that average 32-plus possession minutes and 21-plus first downs as the coach of LSU.  Georgia will have to abandon its plan to run the football and control the clock in this one once they find themselves behind.  And Fromm isn’t good enough, nor does he have the weapons to play catch-up.  Take LSU Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 

I really like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  They will be playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings with the Mavericks this season.  They’ll be motivated for a win, while the Mavericks will take them lightly and that will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us. 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans, who have lost seven straight coming in while going 1-5-1 ATS in the process.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Mavericks, who are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line is inflated due to these recent results from both teams. 

Plays against any team (Dallas) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home loss.  The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -6.5 

Central Michigan could be found as high as 300-1 to win the MAC after losing to Wisconsin 61-0 in their 2nd game of the season.  They’ve been money makers ever since and grossly undervalued all season.  And now they are the favorites to win the MAC title for good reason.

The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have been dominant statistically in MAC play, outgaining opponents by 168 yards per game.  Miami Ohio is actually getting outgained by 6 yards per game in MAC play this season.

The Redhawks didn’t play well down the stretch once they clinched the MAC title game.  They barely beat Akron 20-17 as 29-point favorites.  And last week they lost 27-41 to Ball State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  They were outgained by 303 yards by Ball State.

QB Brett Gabbert left that game with an injury and is questionable to return this week.  Backup QB Jackson Williamson went 4-for-11 for 52 yards with two interceptions in his place.  I don’t think it matters who starts for the Redhawks because they’ll get blown out either way.

Central Michigan has scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games overall.  The Chippewas are averaging 38 points & 515 yards per game in MAC play this season.  They are loaded at receiver and running back with great overall speed.  Their top two running backs in Ward and Lewis have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns.  That will help them on the fast track at Ford Field in Detroit.  Plus, they will have the home-field advantage with a short drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit.

The Chippewas have the best defensive line in the MAC.  They give up just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Miami Ohio allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  While these teams are pretty even defensively overall, there’s no question the Chippewas have a massive advantage on offense.  The Redhawks only average 24.6 points and 308.7 yards per game on the season, including 17.4 points and 281 yards per game on the road.

The Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Chippewas will cap off a tremendous turnaround from 1-11 to 9-4 with a blowout win over Miami Ohio and a MAC title.  Bet Central Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lafayette/Appalachian State UNDER 56 

Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette will be facing each other for the 4th time in two seasons.  They met in the regular season and Sun Belt Championship Game last year, and they met in the regular season and will face each other again in the Sun Belt title game against this year. 

It’s safe to say these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses.  That has proven to be the case in the three previous meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 and has gone under the total by an average of 25 points per game in the previous three meetings.  They have combined for 44, 49 and 24 points in the three meetings, so you can see there’s value with the UNDER 56 tonight. 

In their first meeting this season, Appalachian State won 17-7 at LA-Lafayette.  The Mountaineers managed only 343 total yards with most of those coming on their final drive that sealed the win for them.  The Rajin’ Cajuns managed only 254 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as both defenses win out in this one. 

Appalachian State is giving up just 18.7 points and 321.2 yards per game on the season, including 16.4 points and 277.6 yards per game in Sun Belt play.  Louisiana-Lafayette is giving p just 17.8 points per game on the season and 16.4 points per game in Sun Belt play.  Their numbers are nearly identical with Appalachian State, and both defenses are the reason these teams are in the title game. 

Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rajin’ Cajuns last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mountaineers last eight games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 92-96 road loss at Denver on November 22nd exactly two weeks ago.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home this time around.  And it’s a Nuggets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a road win over the Knicks last night. 

The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and are coming off a 112-93 home win over the Heat.  The Celtics improved to 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game.  This is a short number to be laying with the Celtics at home tonight given the rest advantage and revenge. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - off a road win when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 62-30 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Denver is 6-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

The biggest reason I’m on the UNDER tonight is due to the weather.  Forecasts are calling for 20-plus MPH winds with around a 75% chance of precipitation during the game in Santa Clara.  The weather conditions are going to make it difficult for both teams to throw the ball.  This is going to be a run and punt and play field position type of game. 

Both Utah and Oregon have the two best defenses in the Pac-12.  The Utes are giving up just 11.2 points and 241.6 yards per game on the season.  The Ducks are giving up just 15.7 points and 331.3 yards per game on the year.  Both teams have been dominant against the run with the Utes allowing 56 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry, and the Ducks allowing 106 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry. 

The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Utes last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Utes last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Ducks last nine games on grass.  It’s a poor playing surface at Levi’s Stadium, especially when it gets wet.  The weather will favor a defensive battle, and the books can’t set this number low enough.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win after dropping four straight coming in.  One of those losses was a 104-116 home loss to the Magic on November 27th, so they will be out for revenge just over a week later here in the rematch. 

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing 3rd game in 4 days and are overvalued off two straight wins over Washington and Phoenix. 

Plays against road favorites (Orlando) - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) off four or more consecutive losses, in December games are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 54-29 ATS in their last 73 games when playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Charlotte Hornets have certainly been more competitive than most prognosticators anticipated coming into the season.  They are 9-14 SU & 12-11 ATS in their 23 games this season.  They have won three of their last five coming in with their only losses coming on the road to Milwaukee and at home to Phoenix by 5 after the Suns closed on a 10-0 run. 

The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites.  They are getting that respect due to going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  But their six wins have come against the Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Cavs, Celtics and Hawks. 

The Nets beat the Hornets 101-91 at home on November 20th.  Now the Hornets want revenge at home this time around just over two weeks later.  The Hornets are 6-2 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Nets with one of those losses coming by 2 points. 

Brooklyn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.  Roll with the Hornets Friday. 

20* Providence/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +2 

Rhode Island returned all five starters this season and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule and have managed to go 5-3 this season.  Their only losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia and LSU.  They also beat Alabama outright by 14 as home underdogs and topped a good North Texas team by 13 as 6-point favorites on a neutral. 

Providence is 5-4 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  The Friars have been a huge disappointment against a much easier schedule than Rhode Island has faced.  They lost by 9 at Northwestern as 9-point favorites.  They lost at home to Pennsylvania outright as 15-point favorites.  And they also lost on a neutral to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost to College of Charleston on a neutral as 9-point favorites, and barely beat Pepperdine by 3 on a neutral as 7-point favorites. 

Providence is 14-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Rhode Island Friday. 

20* Cowboys/Bears FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5 

The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears are both 6-6 this season.  However, the Cowboys are favored for good reason here because they are much better than a 6-6 team, while the Bears are much worse than a 6-6 team.  I’ll lay the short number with the Cowboys here because of it. 

Dallas is outgaining its opponents by 111.1 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one of the best marks in the entire NFL.  The Cowboys have the top-ranked offense in the NFL at 432.8 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per play (6.5) and 1st in 3rd down conversion rate (49%). 

Chicago is getting outgained by 38 yards per game.  The Bears rank 30th in yard per play (4.6), 29th in 3rd down conversion rate (31%) and 29th in total offense at 281.8 yards per game.  Both teams are pretty equal on defense as the Bears are 7th in total defense at 319.7 yards per game and the Cowboys are 8th at 321.6 yards per game. 

Of back-to-back losses where they felt like they should have won against the Patriots and Bills, the Cowboys will be highly motivated for a win here Thursday.  And the Bears are coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions.  They needed a late comeback to beat the Lions and their 3rd-string quarterback last week. 

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after having lost three of its last four games overall the past three seasons.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season.  The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -7.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are loaded this season and a legit NCAA Tournament team.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Villanova.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall coming in, so they have been flying under the radar. 

Louisiana Tech has already been tested on the road against teams that are a similar caliber to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana.  I expect them to lose by double-digits tonight as well. 

The Bulldogs have been off since November 24th, so they’ll be ready to go tonight and completely focused.  Mississippi State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Mississippi State) - in a game involving two good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game, after leading int heir previous game by 15 or more points at halftime are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Mississippi State Thursday. 

15* Rockets/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1 

The Toronto Raptors are coming off their first home loss of the season.  The Miami Heat beat them in overtime.  The Raptors are now 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are in a tough spot off a double-overtime loss at San Antonio Tuesday.  Now they have to travel to Toronto and face a motivated Raptors team here tonight.  It’s a Raptors team that has been underrated all season at 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Houston is 3-12 ATS off a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.  Toronto is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Rockets.  Take the Raptors Thursday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -2.5 

This is the worst spot the Lakers have been in this entire season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  After playing in altitude last night in Denver, they now have to play in altitude again tonight in Utah.  The Lakers won’t have much left in the tank. 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win after losing four of five on their five-game road trip.  Now they’re back home where they are 8-1 on the season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They will take advantage of this tired Lakers team tonight and get a win and cover. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Lakers.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -3 

The New Mexico Lobos have NBA talent this season and should challenge for a Mountain West title.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to UTEP and on a neutral to Auburn.  They also have a road win at New Mexico State and an upset win over Wisconsin on a neutral as 6.5-point dogs.  They have been battle-tested. 

Boise State has been far from impressive this season at 4-2.  Their only good win came at home against BYU.  They lost at Oregon by 31 as 10.5-point dogs.  They were upset at home by UC-Irvine by 9 as 4.5-point favorites.  And now they won’t be competitive with New Mexico, either. 

The Lobos have one of the best home-court advantages in the country year in and year out in The Pit.  The Lobos are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 16.4 points per game.  The Broncos are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +2 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to an 8-0 start this season with three impressive road wins over Iowa, Boston College and Minnesota all as underdogs.  And now they are getting zero respect as home dogs to Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders were exposed in Las Vegas when they lost to Iowa 61-72 as 7-point favorites and were upset by Creighton as well 76-83 as 6-point favorites.  Leading scorer Jahmi’us Ramsey (17.3 PPG) missed the Creighton game and is questionable to play tonight as well. 

Texas Tech is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Blue Demons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 18.4 points per game.  Take DePaul Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane -1.5 

Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State before coming to Tulane.  Now he is already turning around this Tulane program in his first season.  The Green Wave are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and should be laying more than 1.5 points on the road over Southern Miss tonight. 

Tulane’s only loss this season came to Mississippi State as 10-point underdogs.  The Green Wave upset Utah as 8-point dogs on a neutral and their other five wins have all come by 9 points or more.  There is nothing fluky about their 6-1 start. 

Now Tulane takes on a rebuilding Southern Miss team that is 2-6 SU & 2-3-1 ATS this season.  The Golden Eagles’ only two wins have come at home against Delta State and William Carey.  Four of their six losses have come by 15 points or more with the only exceptions being their losses to South Alabama and North Florida. 

Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS int heir last five road games.  Tulane is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Roll with Tulane Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 226 

The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons just played less than two weeks ago.  The Bucks won 104-90 at home as 13-point favorites.  That game saw just 194 combined points, and now oddsmakers are setting the total at 226 in the rematch.  This total is way too high to say the least. 

The Pistons won’t have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days the last time they faced the Bucks and managed just 90 points on 40.7% shooting. 

The Pistons have been dynamite defensively over their last games in allowing just 98.4 points per game on 42.8% shooting.  The Bucks have held four of their last six opponents to 102 points or fewer and remain a very good defensive team. 

Detroit is 15-3 UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pistons last 52 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Detroit) - off a blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent that led its last game by 15 or more at the half are 53-13 (80.3%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Lakers/Nuggets NBA No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets had won 10 of 11 before suffering an upset loss at Sacramento on Saturday.  I believe they were overlooking the Kings and looking ahead to this huge showdown with the Lakers, which is understandable.  Now they’ve had two days off to get over that loss and get ready for the Lakers. 

The Lakers are coming off a 100-114 home loss to the Mavericks to end their 10-game winning streak.  I like fading teams the game after their long winning streak comes to an end because there just always seems to be a hangover effect.  And this is a tired Lakers team playing their 7th game in 12 days and have to travel to Utah tomorrow night. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Lakers winning all five games by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

20* FSU/Indiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Indiana -1 

Archie Miller finally has his best team at Indiana since he took over.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with all seven wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 22.8 points per game.  They are scoring 86.4 points per game on 51.4% shooting this season. 

The Hoosiers are also greatly improved defensively.  They are giving up 63.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting.  They are holding opponents to 11.2 points per game below their season averages.  They are also scoring 13.5 points per game more than their opponents average allowing on the season. 

I think this is a bad spot for Florida State.  They are coming off two straight nailbiting wins over Tennessee and Purdue on a neutral court by 3 points each.  Those two teams are both way down from where they were last year.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, while the Hoosiers will only be playing their 2nd game in 8 days. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Indiana Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2 

Despite being just 6-12 SU this season, the Washington Wizards are 11-7 ATS and have been an undervalued commodity this season.  And it’s worth noting they have played a road-heavy schedule with 11 road games compared to seven home games.   

The Wizards are back home here off a brutal four-game road trip at Denver, Phoenix, LA Lakers and LA Clippers.  It’s safe to say they are battle-tested.  And now I expect them to handle their business at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 121-125 loss at Orlando two weeks ago in their first meeting this season. 

The Magic have lost four of their last six with their only wins coming against Cleveland and Golden State.  Orlando is dealing with some injuries right now with Nikola Vucevic, Al-Farouq Aminu and Michael Carter-Williams all out tonight. 

The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards have won five straight home meetings with the Magic.  Washington is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with the Magic.  Orlando is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Take the Wizards Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -1 

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing their first true road game of the season tonight.  They are 7-0 and ranked 24th in the country, but their unbeaten season comes to an end at Ole Miss here.  The unranked Rebels are favored and for good reason. 

Ole Miss has a one-point loss at Memphis and an upset win over Penn State on a neutral.  The Rebels will be highly motivated for a win following a blowout loss to a very good Oklahoma State team.  This is a Rebels team that won 20 games last year that earned Kermit Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors.  A lot of talent returned from that team. 

Breiin Tyree (15.1 PPG) is an SEC Player of the Year candidate and returning starter.  Blake Hinson (12.3 PPG) is also a returning starter who missed the first four games of the season.  Now that he’s back, the Rebels should take off.  KJ Buffen (12.4 PPG) is shooting 54% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range.  This is a great 3-point shooting team with four of the top five scorers all shooting at least 37.5% from distance.  Tyree won’t continue to shoot as poorly from 3 as he has thus far. 

The Rebels are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Butler is 6-15 ATS in true road games over the last three seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Bulls/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +5.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight as road underdogs to the Sacramento Kings.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall.  But they are coming in on two days’ rest and will be primed for a big effort today against a Kings team that is very beatable. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Kings, who are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and starting to become overvalued because of it.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Denver Nuggets, which also makes them primed for a letdown here against the Bulls. 

Keep in mind during this 12-1 ATS run the Kings were underdogs in all but three games, and they were never favored by more than 3 points.  So they are now laying their biggest number since October 30th at home against the Hornets.  And they have been mostly dogs during this stretch because they are still missing De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.  They are far from full strength.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +3 

The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 29 points on the season, which is the sign of a team that would be closer to 6-5 than 9-2.  At least nine teams in the NFL have outscored their opponents by more than 29 points on the season. 

One of those teams is the Minnesota Vikings, who have outscored their opponents by a total of 84 points and are every bit as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Now the Seahawks’ luck will run out against one of the best teams in the NFL here in the Vikings.  I expect Minnesota to win this game outright. 

The Vikings have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Six of their eight wins this season have come by double-digits.  They once again have an elite defense that is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season. 

Kirk Cousins is having one of the best seasons of his career.  He is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with a 21-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 yards per attempt.  A big reason he has been so good is because the Vikings finally have a rushing attack with Dalvin Cook, who has 1,017 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.8 per carry. 

One of the biggest reasons I see the Seahawks as frauds is because they have an awful defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 370.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They also give up 23.9 points per game.  Now they will be without their best pass rusher in Jadeveon Clowney this week, making their job a whole lot tougher. 

The Vikings have two full weeks to prepare for the Seahawks coming off their bye week.  They want revenge on the Seahawks after losing five straight to them, including a one-point loss in the playoffs a few years back in Seattle after they missed a chip shot field goal for the win.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.4 points per game at home this season.  Bet the Vikings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

I love the situation for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  This is a home-and-home situation.  The Thunder just beat the Pelicans 109-104 at home on Friday.  Now these teams play in a rematch at New Orleans just two days later.  The Pelicans will be highly motivated for revenge in this one. 

The Thunder are just 1-7 on the road this season and giving up 110.4 points per game.  The Pelicans have played their best basketball at home and nearly upset the Lakers are 6.5-point home dogs in their last home game.  They should have no problem covering this short 2.5-point spread tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -10 

The Kansas City Chiefs own the Oakland Raiders and the AFC West in general.  The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raiders with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  It will be more of the same today with the Chiefs today as they win by double-digits over the Raiders with first place in the AFC West on the line. 

The Chiefs haven’t been as dominant as they were last year.  But it’s also true that they haven’t been healthy all season.  Patrick Mahomes has missed some time, and several of his weapons have missed games.  But now the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been all season.  And they’re going to be a scary team moving forward.  Their season-long stats aren’t as good as they are going to be from here on out. 

Andy Reid is one of the best head coaches of all-time off a bye.  He is 22-4 SU & 17-9 ATS off a bye and will obviously have his team ready to go with what’s at stake today.  He doesn’t need any motivational speeches with first place in the AFC West at stake. 

The Raiders are coming off a 3-34 road loss to the New York Jets last week.  It was their worst game of the season, and I’m definitely concerned about this team moving forward.  They only managed 208 total yards against a bad Jets defense.  Oakland’s leaky defense gave up 401 total yards to a bad Jets offense too.  This had been a poor Oakland defense all season giving up 25.8 points and 370.8 yards per game, including 30.3 points and 372.8 yards per game on the road. 

Oakland is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Raiders are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Kansas City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC West opponents.  Take the Chiefs Sunday. 

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47 

The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks.  They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week. 

Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore.  They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game.  Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season.  Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in. 

The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night.  They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards.  The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense.  I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week.  Look for the Cardinals to expose them too. 

I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach.  You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one.  And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray. 

Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games.  And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total.  After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals. 

Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons.  Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -2 

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country because they returned all five starters this year.  But those starters are clearly mediocre as the Wildcats are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games this season. 

Davidson has had some ugly performances to say the least.  They were upset as 10-point favorites in a 13-point loss at Charlotte.  They were upset by Wake Forest as 9-point favorites in a 12-point loss on a neutral.  And they lost by 10 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs. 

Temple is 5-1 this season and has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat both La Salle and USC, topping the Trojans as 9-point dogs.  Temple’s only loss this season came against one of the best teams in the country in Maryland as 9-point dogs in a 7-point loss on a neutral.  The Owls are coming off a 65-42 blowout win over Texas A&M on the road as well. 

Davidson is 2-9 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Temple is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 neutral site games.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Bet Temple Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3 

Sam Darnold started to talk about the playoffs after the Jets beat the Giants 34-27 three weeks ago.  Everyone laughed at him, and they’re still laughing because it’s probably not possible.  But the fact of the matter is he has delivered since making that statement.  And the Jets have the belief they can make the playoffs in that locker room, which is all that really matters. 

Darnold went on to lead the Jets to a 34-17 win at Washington and a 34-3 home win over Oakland last week.  I realize the competition hasn’t been great, but the Jets have scored 34 points on three straight NFL defenses.  And now they face the worst team in the NFL in the 0-11 Cincinnati Bengals.  I don’t see anything changing here. 

The Bengals give up 26.5 points and are dead last in total defense at 417.2 yards per game allowed.  Their offense ranks 31st in scoring at 14.3 points per game and they’ve been held to 17 points or fewer in six straight games coming in.  They are going back to Andy Dalton this week at quarterback, but it won’t matter. 

Dalton doesn’t have any weapons outside with AJ Green and John Ross sidelined.  And the Bengals' only hope is to run the football with Joe Mixon.  That certainly won’t be easy this week.  The Jets are 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.1 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.  Only one player has rushed for 100 yards against the Jets, and that was Zeke Elliott in Week 6, a game the Jets won. 

The Bengals are coming off a tough 10-16 loss to division rival Pittsburgh.  And they have another division rival in Cleveland on deck.  I don’t see them showing up at all this week as it will be hard for them to get motivated to face the Jets.  And even if they do, they aren’t good enough to hang with this hot Jets team playing their best football of the season. 

The Bengals have 13 straight losses since the end of last year.  They’ve also lost 18 of 19 overall, the worst stretch in franchise history.  Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - a cold team having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Bengals are 0-7 ATS in home games off a division loss over the last three seasons.  Take the Jets Sunday. 

15* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco +6 

The Baltimore Ravens couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are right now off five straight blowout wins and covers.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points to what I believe is neck-and-neck with Baltimore as the best team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.  It’s too much, and there’s a great chance this game is decided by one score either way. 

The Ravens got two non-offensive touchdowns against Seattle to start this streak.  Then they had a bye and caught New England in a good spot.  Then they faced an awful Cincinnati team before beating up on a bad Houston defense.  And last week they beat up on an overrated Rams team.  They will meet their match this week. 

The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in total defense in giving up just 248.0 yards per game while also allowing just 14.8 points per game.  Nothing has come easy against this San Francisco defense, which is loaded with first-round draft picks along the front seven and has the top-ranked pass defense in the league, giving up just 136.9 passing yards per game. 

The 49ers have been great offensively when George Kittle and Emanuel Sanders have been healthy.  They have scored 36 and 37 points in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Green Bay.  And Kittle just returned against the Packers last week and made a huge difference in their 37-8 win.  The 49ers held Aaron Rodgers and company to just 198 total yards on 65 plays, an average of 3.05 yards per play.  And it’s worth noting the Ravens lost starting center Matt Skura to a season-ending knee injury against the Rams last week.  Skura is the QB of the offensive line and makes all the calls. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team average 27 or more points pre game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Browns/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1 

The Cleveland Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now their schedule has lightened up and the Browns have won and covered three in a row.  They will prove that they are better than the Steelers finally this season by sweeping the season series. 

The Browns won 21-7 two weeks ago as 3-point home favorites.  They dominated and forced four turnovers in the win.  Obviously, the Steelers want revenge, but they don’t have the personnel to get it.  The Browns are far and away the better team in this matchup in 2019. 

The Steelers have a dreadful offense that has scored 17, 7 and 16 points the last three weeks.  They are going to Devlin Hodges over Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but it’s not an upgrade.  Hodges’ 24-17 win at the Chargers was extremely misleading.  He only averaged 6.6 per attempt and totaled 132 passing yards.  The Chargers gave that game away with turnovers and outgained the Steelers by 92 yards.  And Hodgers is being looked at as the savior last week in leading the 16-10 win over the Bengals after replacing Rudolph.  But it’s the 0-11 Bengals, who have lost 18 of their last 19 overall. 

The Browns have outgained four straight opponents and are a very good team if they don’t beat themselves.  They aren’t beating themselves as they have cleaned up the turnovers and penalties.  And we saw the same thing last year with the Browns finishing the season strong after a slow start.  They have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and their defense is good enough to shut down an awful Pitt offense again. 

A big reason this Pittsburgh offense has struggled and why they’re playing musical chairs at quarterback is because they don’t have their full plethora of weapons.  Both JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Conner aren’t expected to play this week.  Plus, center Maurkice Pouncey is serving the second of his two-game suspension following the Myles Garrett/Mason Rudolph incident.  Not having the QB of their offensive line is a big loss.  And the books almost never factor in the loss of a center to injury, even thought it’s one of the most important positions in the NFL. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - revenging a loss vs. opponent of 14 points or more, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Browns Sunday. 

20* Army/Hawaii CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Army +3 

Hawaii just clinched the MWC’s West Division with a 14-11 home win over San Diego State last week.  The Rainbow Warriors have nothing to play for, and now they’d rather focus their attention on the MWC Championship Game against Boise State next week.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they lay down today instead of expending the energy it takes to try and shut down a triple-option team like Army. 

Hawaii hasn’t had a bye since the beginning of October.  They will be playing for an 8th straight week here.  That’s all the more reason for them to not expend energy here, plus even if they wanted to they can’t have much left in the tank.  Meanwhile, Army is coming off a bye week and has another bye on deck before facing Navy.  They will be ‘all in’ here because they sit at 5-6 and need to win their final two games to make a bowl. 

Army is clearly fresh off the bye, but also because it won a couple laughers going into the bye.  The Black Knights won 63-7 over UMass and 47-6 over VMI in their two games preceding the bye.  And this is a great matchup for them as they rush for 303 yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Hawaii allows 188 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry on the season.  It’s strength vs. weakness here, so the situation and the matchup favor the Black Knights. 

Army is 8-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the past three seasons.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Hawaii.  The Black Knights are 7-1 ATS int heir last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Army Saturday.