|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-12-13||Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||Top||31-45||Loss||-125||165 h 10 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3.5
The Packers are finally getting healthy at the right time. Charles Woodson just returned last week, and they had all of their receivers healthy for the first time all year. Green Bay dominated Minnesota 24-10 in the first round in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate.
Green Bay will want revenge from its loss to the 49ers in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers really had a good game, making this 49ers
|01-12-13||Utah Jazz v. Detroit Pistons -2||90-87||Loss||-105||18 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2
The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Utah Jazz. Detroit has won seven of its last nine games overall with its two losses both coming in overtime. It even has home wins over the Heat, Hawks and Bucks during this stretch.
Utah is a completely different team home and away. It is 11-4 at home this season, but just 8-15 on the road. That includes a 95-103 road loss at Atlanta last night. Detroit is a very respectable 10-9 at home this season, limiting opponents to just 93.5 points/game. Utah is allowing nearly 102.0 points/game on the road.
The Jazz are a very tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days. Meanwhile, the Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. I'll gladly back the fresher, hotter team as only a small home favorite in this one.
The home team has won three straight and five of the last six in this series. The Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. Roll with the Pistons Saturday.
|01-12-13||Baltimore Ravens +9 v. Denver Broncos||Top||38-35||Win||100||236 h 46 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Broncos AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +9
The Ravens have new life now that they have their leader, Ray Lewis, back in action. He led the team in tackles with 13 in a 24-9 home victory over Indianapolis last weekend. This team really rallies around Lewis, and they want to send him out with a Super Bowl ring now that he has announced he will retire at season
|01-12-13||Texas +8.5 v. Iowa State||62-82||Loss||-110||13 h 53 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are in a big letdown spot here tonight. I look for them to suffer a hangover from their brutal 89-97 road loss at Kansas in overtime on Wednesday. The Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer to send the game to OT.
Texas comes in highly motivated for its first Big 12 victory of the season. It has lost a pair of heartbreakers with a 79-86 loss at Baylor and a 53-57 home setback against West Virginia. The value is clearly with the hungry road underdog in this one.
Texas really owns Iowa State having won nine of the last ten meetings in this series. Its only loss during this stretch came by 6 points on the road last season. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Texas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cyclones are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Take Texas Saturday.
|01-12-13||Duke v. North Carolina State +4.5||76-84||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
15* Duke/NC State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5
The NC State Wolf Pack will show Saturday why they were picked my many to win the ACC this season. They will hand the Duke Blue Devils their first loss of the season behind inspiration from a rowdy home crowd.
NC State is 13-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road against Michigan and Oklahoma State. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.5 points/game.
Duke is way overvalued due to its 15-0 start and No. 1 ranking. However, this will be the FIRST true road game of the season for the Blue Devils Saturday. That's right, they have played 15 games and have yet to play a true road game, which is the biggest reason they are so overrated right now.
This play falls into a system that is 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - after allowing 60 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games.
Duke is 0-7 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Duke is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolf Pack are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC foes. Bet NC State Saturday.
|01-11-13||San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -2||98-101||Win||100||21 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2
The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated to beat the San Antonio Spurs and put an end to their losing streak in this series. Memphis has lost five straight to San Antonio since knocking the Spurs out in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs. That includes a 95-99 overtime loss at San Antonio in their first meeting of the season on December 1st.
That home victory by the Spurs was no surprise considering the home team has dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 15 meetings. Memphis is 13-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.7 points/game while limiting foes to 86.7 points/game.
San Antonio is a mediocre 13-8 on the road where it is giving up 100.1 points/game. The Spurs really have not played all that well of late, failing to cover the spread in three of their last four. They have lost their last two road games with an 83-100 setback at New York and an 88-95 loss at New Orleans.
Memphis is a perfect 10-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring these good teams 98.9 to 88.3, or by an average of 10.6 points/game. As you can see, this is a team that takes their game up a notch when playing against the best competition the league has to offer. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.
|01-11-13||Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks UNDER 191.5||108-101||Loss||-110||21 h 39 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Knicks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 191.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this game between the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in a contest that will be nationally televised on ESPN tonight. These National TV games always seem to bring out better top defensive effort by both teams.
New York is much worse off offensively without Raymond Felton, who remains out with a finger injury. Felton is great at running the pick and roll, and the Knicks simply do not have an ample replacement for him. They are coming off a 76-point effort at Indiana last night as they shot just 34.8% from the floor.
Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the league. It is giving up just 91.9 points/game this season on 43.3 percent shooting. However, the Bulls are one of the worst offensive teams in the game. They are scoring only 93.4 points/game on 43.9 percent shooting this year.
The Bulls and Knicks had combined for 184 or less points in three straight meetings (at the end of regulation) before a 110-106 road win by Chicago earlier this season on December 21st. However, New York went off to 45 points in the 4th quarter as the teams combined for 72 in the final period, and that's not going to happen again.
Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Bulls are 9-1 to the UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents for for an average of 175.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 20-6 in Bulls last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-11-13||Minnesota Timberwolves v. New Orleans Hornets -2||92-104||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2
The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 10-25 start. This team has been battling injuries all season as C Anthony Davis (13.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and SG Eric Gordon (15.6 PPG, 4.4 APG) have missed a combined 43 games this season.
However, both Davis and Gordon are back and healthy, and this team is really playing up to its potential now because of it. In fact, the Hornets have won three straight games outright as underdogs. They went on the road to beat Dallas 99-96 as a 6-point dog before coming back home to top San Antonio 95-88 as an 8-point dog, and Houston 88-79 as a 2-point dog.
I have backed the Hornets with success in each of their last two games, and I'm going to continue to back them tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves because I believe they are still undervalued as only a 2-point favorite. This is a Minnesota team that remains without Kevin Love, and one that is coming off an ugly 84-106 loss at Oklahoma City.
New Orleans lost to Minnesota 102-113 in their first meeting of the season on December 14th. That loss works in its favor considering it is 26-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Minnesota is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|01-11-13||Houston Rockets v. Boston Celtics -2.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||20 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5
I have been riding the Boston Celtics here of late with a lot of success. Boston is riding a current four-game winning streak, which is their longest of the season. I have been on them in all four games with the Celtics posting a 3-1 ATS mark. Their only ATS loss came by a single point in an 8-point win over Phoenix as a 9-point favorite.
The reason I'm riding this team right now is because they are finally at full strength. One of the most underrated players in the league, guard Avery Bradley, has returned from injury to provide a big spark. He is the best perimeter defender in the league in my opinion, and he will make life very difficult on James Harden tonight.
Houston has been on an incredible run of late, but as a result it is overvalued. The Rockets have won 10 of their last 13 games overall, but they just had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 79-88 loss at New Orleans on Wednesday. With their momentum halted, I look for the Rockets to suffer a second straight defeat on the road tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 85 points or less. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|01-11-13||Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks -4.5||95-103||Win||100||20 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4.5
The Atlanta Hawks will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome the Utah Jazz to their home court Friday night. Atlanta is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall, so it is clearly undervalued right now as only a 4.5-point home favorite over the Jazz.
Look for the Hawks (20-14) to put forth their best effort of the season tonight as they try and put an end to this 4-game skid. Atlanta is 11-6 at home this season, limiting opponents to 96.8 points/game.
Utah is just 8-14 on the road this year, giving up 101.5 points/game. The Jazz are overvalued after winning four of their last five with all four wins coming against the Timberwolves, Suns, Mavs and Bobcats, who are all .500 or worse this season.
The Jazz are 0-8 ATS in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot 88.8 to 99.0, or by an average of 10.2 points/game. They just cannot seem to string together road wins. They'll be up against a very hungry Atlanta team tonight. Take the Hawks Friday.
|01-10-13||Miami Heat -3 v. Portland Trail Blazers||90-92||Loss||-107||11 h 22 m||Show|
15* Heat/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3
The Miami Heat are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four of their last seven games overall, including a 77-87 road loss at Indiana on Tuesday. I believe they are actually undervalued right now due to their recent struggles, and they should be a bigger favorite over Portland in this one.
The Blazers have been playing very well of late, but as a result they are overvalued. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall, but they have mostly been beating up on inferior opponents. They will finally meet their match tonight in the defending champion Heat.
The road team has won five straight and six of the last seven in this series. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 meetings in Portland, winning the last three outright.
The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The Blazers are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Portland is 4-19 ATS after having won 4 of its last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 3-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Heat Thursday.
|01-10-13||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +13||60-58||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +13
The Vanderbilt Commodores are undervalued today as a double-digit home underdog to the Kentucky Wildcats. This is a team that has clearly improved as the season has gone along, winning four of their last six while covering the spread in four of their last five lined games.
Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued after covering the spread in each of its last five games overall. It has played an extremely soft schedule while winning five of its last six with all five victories coming at home against Samford, Portland, Lipscomb, Marshall and Eastern Michigan. It is not just going to roll Vanderbilt on the road tonight.
This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years to say the least. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. In fact, each of the last nine meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer, making for a 9-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to tonight's spread.
Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 14.5 points/game. Add that 9-0 trend to this 6-0 one and we have a perfect 15-0 system backing the Commodores tonight. Bet Vanderbilt Thursday.
|01-10-13||New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers -4.5||Top||76-81||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Pacers TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -4.5
The Indiana Pacers are rolling right now, and they're not about to cool off on National TV against the depleted New York Knicks tonight. Indiana has won 11 of its last 14 games overall heading into this one.
The Pacers have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They have gone 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points/game. They are limiting foes to just 87.3 points/game at home this year. The Pacers have won eight straight home games coming in with all eight victories by 5 points or more, including an 87-77 win over the defending champion Miami Heat on Tuesday.
The New York Knicks have really cooled off after a fast start this season. They are just 5-6 SU in their last 11 games overall, including 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. Their recent struggles have coincided with an injury to PG Raymond Felton (finger), who has missed the past six games. Also, leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (29.0 PPG) has been suspended for tonight's game, further hurting the team.
Indiana has won 28 of its last 39 home meetings with New York. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. New York is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Pacers Thursday.
|01-10-13||Miami (Fla) v. North Carolina -4||68-59||Loss||-110||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* Miami/UNC ESPN Thursday ANNIHILATOR North Carolina -4
The North Carolina Tar Heels should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Miami Hurricanes. North Carolina will be highly motivated to bounce back from a 52-61 loss at Virginia on Saturday as it returns home where it has played well all season.
UNC is 7-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in all home games this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points/game. It has a few impressive home wins this year, including a 79-73 victory over a very good UNLV team as only a 2-point favorite.
Miami comes into this game overvalued after winning its last two games, including a 62-49 victory at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Remember, this is the same team that lost 50-69 to Arizona, and 55-57 to Indiana State in late December on a neutral court.
North Carolina is 10-0 SU in its last 10 meetings with Miami. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 18.5 points/game. UNC is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 20.5 points/game. These three trends combined for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Thursday.
|01-09-13||Houston Rockets v. New Orleans Hornets +3||Top||79-88||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Hornets +3
The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league at this point of the season due to their 9-25 start this season. They have been battling injuries all season, but they are finally healthy and a dangerous team because of it.
Eric Gordon (18.2 PPG) and Anthony Davis (13.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG) have missed a combined 43 games this season, which is the biggest reason for their early struggles. Both are back and healthy and helping out this team. Gordon scored 24 points while Davis added 17 in a 95-88 win over San Antonio as an 8-point underdog on Monday.
Houston is overvalued right now due to the fact that it has been red hot of late. I look for the Rockets to cool off in a very tough spot for them tonight. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. Off a big emotional win over the Lakers last night, this is clearly a letdown spot for them.
Houston is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. The Hornets will be very hungry for a win having already lost twice in Houston this season. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|01-09-13||Mississippi v. Tennessee -2.5||92-74||Loss||-105||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2.5
The Tennessee Volunteers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over Ole Miss. I'll gladly back them at this price as they look to bounce back from a tough 80-85 home loss to Memphis last time out. That was the Volunteers' first home loss of the season, and a rare one to say the least.
Tennessee is 6-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points/game. It has beaten quality opponents in Wichita State and Xavier at home this season, and it will notch another home victory over Ole Miss in this one. In fact, the Vols have won eight straight home meetings with the Rebels dating back to 1997.
Ole Miss is way overvalued right now due to its 11-2 start against a very soft schedule. Their 11 wins have come against Miss Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Lipscomb, Rutgers, E. Tennessee State, Loyola-Marymount, San Francisco, Hawaii and Fordham. Tennessee will be the toughest team that the Rebels have faced all year.
The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Tennessee is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC foes. The Rebels are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Tennessee is 8-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 24-9 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. Bet Tennessee Wednesday.
|01-09-13||Phoenix Suns v. Boston Celtics -9||79-87||Loss||-105||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9
I have rode the Boston Celtics with success in each of their last three games. They beat Indiana at home 94-75 as a 3-point favorite, won at Atlanta 89-81 as a 5.5-point dog, and won at New York 102-66 as a 7.5-point dog.
The biggest reason I've been backing the Celtics of late is the fact that they've underachieved through the first half of the season, and I have no doubt this is a much better team than their 14-17 record at the time I started backing them.
Avery Bradley is one of the most underrated players in the league. He has just recently returned from injury to give the Celtics a big boost the past four games. Bradley is arguably the best perimeter defender in the league and he'll make life miserable on these Phoenix guards tonight, just as he did on J.R. Smith Monday. Also, Rajon Rondo returns from his one-game suspension.
This is clearly a rebuilding year for the lowly Phoenix Suns. They are off to just a 12-24 start this season, going 14-21-1 ATS in the process. The Suns have been atrocious on the road, going 2-15 while getting outscored by 10.2 points/game. I faded them with success against Milwaukee last night as they lost 99-108. That makes this a tough situation for Phoenix as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.
Phoenix is 1-10 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 2-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points/game. Phoenix is 0-8 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Take the Celtics Wednesday.
|01-09-13||Boston College v. Virginia Tech -3||86-75||Loss||-106||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -3
The Virginia Tech Hokies are highly motivated for a win tonight as they return home following a brutal stretch on the road. They have played four straight away from home while going 1-3 with three losses to some very good teams in Maryland, BYU and Colorado State.
Virginia Tech will be very happy to return home to a place where it has clearly played its best basketball of the season. The Hokies are 7-1 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 13.1 points/game. They have home wins over Iowa and Oklahoma State this year.
Boston College is just 1-3 on the road this season. Its lone road win came against Penn State, and its three losses were against College of Charleston, Dayton and Baylor. The Eagles also have bad home losses to Bryant (54-56) and Harvard (63-79) this season.
The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Boston College is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss. The Eagles are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.
|01-09-13||Western Michigan +14 v. Akron||43-65||Loss||-106||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Western Michigan +14
The Western Michigan Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a very solid 8-5 start this season with their only losses coming on the road against some very good competition in Cornell, Michigan, Illinois State, Duquesne and NC State.
They are certainly battle-tested after playing three of the top teams in the country in Michigan, Illinois State and NC State. They also have impressive wins on the road against Loyola-Illinois (81-71) as a 5-pint dog, and South Florida (58-53) as a 10-point dog.
Akron is overvalued due to a five-game winning streak coming in that has gotten the Zips to 9-4 on the season. However, all five of those wins came at home against some very soft competition. Those five wins were against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cleveland State, Texas Southern, Princeton and Coppin State.
Western Michigan will be motivated to put an end to a 7-game losing streak to Akron. It has played the Zips very tough during this skid, though, as six of the seven losses have come by 12 points or less. That includes a 66-69 overtime loss to Akron in their lone meeting last season.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (AKRON) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 85 points or more. Take Western Michigan Wednesday.
|01-08-13||Pittsburgh v. Georgetown -2||73-45||Loss||-106||22 h 51 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Georgetown Big East No-Brainer on Georgetown -2
This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Georgetown is one of the most underrated teams in the country and it should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight against the overrated Pittsburgh Panthers.
Georgetown is off to a 10-2 start this season. Its only losses have come against then-No. 1 Indiana in overtime on a neutral court as a 9.5-point dog and at Marquette 48-49 as a 3-point dog. Off that loss to Marquette Saturday, I look for the Hoyas to be hungry to bounce back at home.
Pitt played a very soft schedule before opening Big East play, racing out to a 12-1 start. However, it was favored by 6 over Cincinnati in its Big East opener, losing 61-70 at home. It then went on the road Saturday and fell at Rutgers 62-67 as a 7-point dog. Once again, this team is overvalued tonight.
Georgetown is a perfect 8-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 13.8 points per game at home this year. It is limiting its opponents to 51.1 points per game on 37.0 percent shooting at home.
The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Hoyas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Georgetown Tuesday.
|01-08-13||Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks -5.5||99-108||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
Off four straight losses, the Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a win tonight. Their losses have come against Detroit and Indiana on the road, as well as red hot San Antonio and Houston at home. They had beaten Miami at home in their last win before this 4-game skid.
Finally, the Bucks get a break in their schedule tonight against the Phoenix Suns, losers of eight of their last nine games overall. Phoenix is just 2-14 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 10.2 points/game. It is giving up a whopping 106.6 points/game away from home this year.
Phoenix is 0-7 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. It is losing in this spot by an average of 9.2 points/game. Milwaukee is a very profitable 57-30 ATS in its last 87 games following 4 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Bucks Tuesday.
|01-08-13||Drake +20.5 v. Creighton||Top||61-91||Loss||-106||20 h 27 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Drake +20.5
The oddsmakers have missed their mark badly in this game between Drake and Creighton. The Bulldogs are clearly undervalued headed into this one as a 20.5-point underdog. I like them to give the overvalued Blue Jays a run for their money in this one.
Drake is just 6-8 on the season against a very tough schedule. Its eight losses have come against quality opponents in Detroit (by 6), California (by 3), Xavier (by 4), St. Mary's (by 15), Iowa State (by 9), Bradley (by 9), Wichita State (by 12) and Missouri State (by 12). As you can see, none of its eight losses came by more than 15 points.
Creighton is overvalued due to its 14-1 start and No. 13 ranking in the country. There's no question that this is a very good team that will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, but it has created expectations for itself due to this fast start that it cannot live up to.
I faded Creight on Saturday by taking Indiana State +14.5 with success, and I'll do the same tonight with Drake. Only four times this season have the Blue Jays won by more than 20 points. Those four games were against Presbyterian, Longwood and St. Josephs and Nebraska.
Drake has played Creighton tough over the last several years. Each of the last 13 meetings dating back to 2006 were decided by 17 points or less with Drake actually winning five of those outright. This makes for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to tonight's line of 20.5.
This play falls into a system that is 41-11 (78.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home teams as a favorite or pick (CREIGHTON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more.
This play falls into another system that is 47-13 (78.3% ATS) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 20 or more points (DRAKE) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival. Take Drake Tuesday.
Note: I noticed that Drake has been bet down to +16.5 in some places since I posted this pick Tuesday night. I still recommend Drake at +16.5
|01-07-13||Alabama v. Notre Dame +10||Top||42-14||Loss||-108||124 h 14 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Notre Dame BCS Championship BEST BET on Notre Dame +10
The Fighting Irish have been getting disrespected all season. Many people don
|01-07-13||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +8.5||88-95||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +8.5
The New Orleans Hornets have played the San Antonio Spurs very tough this season, but they are 0-2 in two meetings. They lost 95-99 at home as a 7-point underdog on October 31st, and 94-99 on the road as a 13.5-point dog on December 21st.
The Hornets will want revenge from those two heartbreaking defeats, and they should not be an 8.5-point home dog tonight. That's especially the case considering New Orleans is finally at full strength as SG Eric Gordon just recently returned the line-up. He helped lead the Hornets to a 99-96 overtime victory at Dallas on Saturday, which was their 3rd road win in the last six games.
San Antonio is overvalued right now due to a run in which it has won eight of its last nine games while going 6-3 ATS in the process. This run has been against some very weak competition. With the Lakers on deck Wednesday, and having already beaten the Hornets twice this year, the Spurs could be overlooking them just enough to lose this game, let alone cover the inflated 8.5-point spread.
New Orleans is 24-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 33-18 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New Orleans. Roll with the Hornets Monday.
|01-07-13||Boston Celtics +6.5 v. New York Knicks||102-96||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Knicks NBA Monday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5
The Boston Celtics (16-17) are hungry to get back to .500 on the season tonight with a victory over the New York Knicks. I have been on Boston its past two games with a 94-75 home win over Indiana as a 3-point favorite, and an 89-81 road win at Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog.
I believe this team is ready to turn the corner and win a third straight game for only the second time this season. Boston just recently got Avery Bradley back from injury, and he is one of the most underrated players in the league. His perimeter defense is as good as you will see in the NBA.
New York is overvalued due to its fast start. It has won two straight as well, but it needed to come from way behind to beat Orlando last time out. This team is without starting point guard Raymond Felton until late January, and they have been inconsistent without him.
Boston has owned this series with New York. It has won 14 of the last 17 meetings dating back to 2009. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. New York is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a win. Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Take the Celtics Monday.
Note: I still recommend the Celtics at +7.5 now that Rajon Rondo has been officially ruled out.
|01-06-13||Arkansas State -3.5 v. Kent State||17-13||Win||100||101 h 44 m||Show|
15* Arkansas State/Kent State GoDaddy Bowl No-Brainer on Arkansas State -3.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt conference for a second straight year thanks to a finish that leaves them as one of the hottest teams in the country heading into their bowl game. They have gone 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall. All seven victories came by a touchdown or more.
Kent State comes in deflated following its loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. There
|01-06-13||Charlotte Bobcats +9 v. Detroit Pistons||108-101||Win||100||20 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Bobcats +9
The Detroit Pistons should not be a 9-point favorite against any team in the league, not even the Charlotte Bobcats. This is a much improved Bobcats' team this year that will give the Pistons a run for their money, possibly pulling off the upset tonight.
Detroit is overvalued right now due to winning four straight games coming in. Its last three wins have all come by 6 points or less, so it's not like it is blowout out the opposition. Off a 1-point home win over Atlanta last time out, it is in a big letdown spot tonight against the Bobcats.
An easy way to tell that Detroit is overvalued is the fact that it has not been a favorite of more than 7 points in any game this season. In fact, the 13-22 Pistons have only been a favorite 11 times this year with nine of those being a 5-point favorite or less.
Charlotte put an end to its long losing streak with an impressive 91-81 road victory at Chicago on December 31st as an 11.5-point underdog. It did lost to Cleveland 104-106 in its most recent game, but this team comes in fresh and ready to bounce back. In fact, this will only be the Bobcats' 2nd game in six days, so they'll be giving 100% effort in this one.
This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record. Bet the Bobcats Sunday.
|01-06-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46||Top||24-14||Win||100||95 h 8 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Redskins NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46
The oddsmakers have inflated this total in this NFC wild-card game between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I believe is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Both offenses have been playing well of late, which is the biggest reason for this inflated total. However, each offense runs into a hot defense, and defenses reign supreme more times than not in the playoffs.
Seattle is allowing just 15.3 points/game this season, and it has given up 17 points or less in each of its last five contests. Washington has given up 21 or fewer points in three straight games while picking up three big wins in the process.
The Seahawks are scoring 21.1 points/game while allowing 18.7 points/game on the road this season. That's an average combined score of 39.8 points/game. Washington is scoring 25.7 points/game and allowing 22.1 points/game at home this year for an average combined score of 47.8 points/game. Add 47.8 and 39.8 and divide by two and we get 43.8, which is closer to what this total should really be set at, so you can see where I'm getting the value at.
This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) to the UNDER since 1983. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams against the total (WASHINGTON) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
I look for both of these rookie quarterbacks to focus on taking care of the football and not making mistakes, which won't put their defenses in bad positions. This will lead to a low-scoring affair and an easy cash on the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-06-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +3||24-14||Loss||-107||95 h 8 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/Redskins NFC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Washington +3
The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league entering the playoffs. After a 3-6 start, it appeared that they would be just playing for pride the rest of the way. They weren
|01-06-13||Syracuse v. South Florida +8.5||55-44||Loss||-106||12 h 21 m||Show|
15* Syracuse/South Florida Big East ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +8.5
The Syracuse Orange (13-1) are in a big letdown spot Sunday. They are coming off a 78-53 home victory over Rutgers in their Big East opener. That gave head coach Jim Boeheim is 903rd career victory, moving him past Bob Knight for 2nd on the all-time Division 1 wins list. It's only human nature for his players to have a letdown after getting him such a big win.
I believe South Florida is a good enough team to beat Syracuse even without a letdown by the Orange, but the spot makes the Bulls a must-play today. South Florida is off to a 9-3 start this season to pick up right where it left off last year as an NCAA Tournament team.
The Bulls remain underrated this season. They play tremendous defense, limiting opponents to just 60.2 points/game and 39.0 percent shooting. They have four players averaging double digits scoring, including returning starters Anthony Collins (10.2 PPG, 7.8 APG) and Victor Rudd (11.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG).
This will be just the 2nd true road game for Syracuse this season. Its first resulted in a 91-82 victory at Arkansas as an 8.5-point favorite on November 30th. That's a big reason why this team is so overvalued right now because it has done almost all of its damage at home against very weak competition.
Syracuse is a tired team right now as this will be its 3rd game in 7 days, and its 4th game in 9 days. The Orange are 0-7 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. USF only lost by 8 points at Syracuse last season as a 14-point underdog. I like them to stay within 8 at home this time around. Take South Florida Sunday.
|01-05-13||Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -7.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||75 h 44 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild-Card Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -7.5
The Packers have been playing their best football at home this season. They are 7-1 at Lambeau Field this year with their only loss coming against the San Francisco 49ers in their opener. They have won seven straight home games since, and they are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game at Lambeau this season.
Green Bay had been dominant in this series before its Week 17 loss to Minnesota, which was a much more important game for the Vikings. It is still 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in its last six meetings with the Vikings. That includes a 23-14 home win earlier this season, and a 45-7 triumph at Lambeau last year. The Packers are outscoring the Vikings by an average of 13.7 points/game in their last six meetings.
While the Packers have struggled stopping Adrian Peterson, I believe a third try at him will help them improve against the run. They
|01-05-13||Northern Iowa +9.5 v. Illinois State||70-60||Win||100||19 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Northern Iowa +9.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers should not be catching this many points Saturday night against the Illinois State Redbirds. The Panthers have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Redbirds, losing only once by more than 9.5 points.
Northern Iowa is undervalued right now due to losing four of its last five games overall. However, it has been an underdog in five of its last six games, clearly playing a difficult schedule. Its losses have come against Iowa, UNLV, Wichita State and Indiana State. It even beat St. Mary's 82-73 and George Mason 82-77 despite being an underdog in both games during this stretch.
Illinois State has lost its last two with a 75-77 setback at Indiana State, and a 72-79 drubbing at home at the hands of Creighton. Off such a tough loss to the Blue Jays, who are picked to win the MVC this season, I expect the Redbirds to suffer a hangover from that defeat.
Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series. This one will go right down to the wire folks. Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.
|01-05-13||Boston Celtics +5 v. Atlanta Hawks||89-81||Win||100||18 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics +5
The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to a recent 4-game losing streak before last night's 94-75 win over Indiana. I picked the Celtics last night, and I'm on them again Saturday as I believe they are going to put a run together here soon.
Boston just recently got Avery Bradley back from injury. His presence will take a lot of pressure off of Rajon Rondo, who also recently returned from injury. This team is finally starting to get healthy and there's no question they are going to string some wins together in the near future.
I believe that Atlanta has overachieved with its roster in the first half of the season, and as a result it is overvalued. It lost at Detroit last night 84-85, using a ton of energy to try and come back as it outscored the Pistons 22-11 in the 4th quarter.
Meanwhile, Boston coasted to its victory and rested in the 4th quarter, so it comes into this game in a much better frame of mind. The Celtics didn't have a single player play more than 30 minutes last night, while the Hawks had all five starters play more than 31 minutes. In fact, Jeff Teague, Al Horford and Lou Williams all played more than 40 minutes.
The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta. The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a combined 4 points. Boston has won four of the last five meetings with its only loss coming by a single point. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|01-05-13||Utah +18.5 v. Arizona||Top||57-60||Win||100||16 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah +18.5
The Arizona Wildcats are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 13-0 start this season. They got away with murder in a 92-83 home win in overtime against Colorado on Thursday. They erased a double-digit deficit in the second half, and Colorado hit a game-winning jumper at the end of regulation that was eventually called off, though most would argue it should have counted.
Arizona is feeling overconfident right now as it continues to win close games. It had beaten San Diego State 68-67 prior to that overtime victory over Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised to see this underrated Utah team pull off the upset, but I'll take the points for some insurance.
Utah is a much better team than it is getting credit for. It is certainly better than its 8-5 record would indicate. ALL FIVE of its losses have come by 5 points or less this season. That includes a 58-61 loss at BYU as a 12.5-point underdog, and a 54-55 loss at Arizona State as an 8-point dog. The Utes are 8-2 ATS in all lines games this season.
Arizona is 0-6 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system that has not lost in three years. Take Utah Saturday.
|01-05-13||Rice +16 v. Harvard||62-92||Loss||-106||15 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16
The Rice Owls are catching way too many points Saturday against the Harvard Crimson in this one. Rice is an ever-improving team under former UCLA head coach Ben Braun. I know it is just 3-9 on the season, but it is an impressive 4-1 ATS in its lined games as it has been undervalued all year.
Its lined games have been against some solid competition, including a 63-77 loss at Temple as a 26-point underdog, and a 41-57 loss at Texas as an 18-point underdog. It also lost to Drexel 47-55 as a 13-point dog, and 63-65 to TCU as a 4-point dog.
Harvard is in for a big letdown in this one. It let a big lead slip away at St. Mary's last time out, falling 69-70 as a 12-point road underdog. The Gaels were playing a second of a back-to-back, so they clearly weren't on their game. I look for the Crimson to suffer a hangover from that crushing defeat.
Harvard hasn't been prone to blowing teams out, either. It is 7-5 this season with just one of those wins coming by more than 16 points. It has a 15-point home win over MIT, a 7-point home loss to Vermont, a 9-point home win over Fordham, a 1-point home win over Boston, and a 7-point home win over Holy Cross, falling to cover the spread in any of those five contests.
This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (RICE) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less. Also, the Crimson are 0-6 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take Rice Saturday.
|01-05-13||Indiana St +14 v. Creighton||66-79||Win||100||14 h 25 m||Show|
15* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +14
The Indiana State Sycamores are showing excellent value as a 14-point underdog to the Creighton Blue Jays Saturday. Indiana State is a much better team than it is getting credit for in this one.
The Sycamores are off to a 9-4 start this season with their four losses coming against quality opponents in UCLA, New Mexico, San Diego State and Morehead State as they were an underdog in all four contests. Three of those losses have come by 9 points or less. What's most impressive about their 9-4 start is the fact that they have been an underdog in nine of their ten lined games this season, going a superb 7-3 ATS.
Creighton is overvalued due to its 13-1 start. It is coming off a huge win at Illinois State by a final of 79-72 as a 1.5-point favorite, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight. The Blue Jays may win this game, but it won't be by more than 14 points.
The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Indiana State is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. The Sycamores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Indiana State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Sycamores. Bet Indiana State Saturday.
|01-05-13||Pittsburgh v. Ole Miss -3||Top||17-38||Win||100||69 h 44 m||Show|
20* Pitt/Ole Miss Compass Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3
The Ole Miss Rebels were one of the most improved teams in the country this season. First-year head coach Hugh Freeze did an excellent job with this program by returning it to relevance. They even had three losses all by 6 points or less to Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and LSU, which are three of the better teams in the conference.
Ole Miss comes in with momentum after beating Mississippi State 41-24 in its finale just to become bowl eligible. It was their most dominant performance of the season as the Rebels outgained the Bulldogs 527-333 for the game. Now, they face a Pittsburgh team that doesn
|01-04-13||Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat UNDER 191||96-89||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 191
The oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. This game will be played on National TV on ESPN, which will bring out the best effort defensively from both teams. I don't expect either team to top 95 points in this one.
The Chicago Bulls don't need to be on National TV to play defense. It is their specialty as they are limiting opponents to just 91.6 points/game this season. However, they are scoring a mere 92.4 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 184.0 points/game on the season.
Miami has been playing solid defense at home, giving up 96.9 points/game. It will have no trouble shutting down this mediocre Bulls' offensive attack tonight. The Heat are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but rarely do they face a defense as stiff as the one they'll be up against tonight.
A look at the recent history between these teams indicates that this total has been inflated. Chicago and Miami have combined for 190 or less points (at the end of regulation) in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That includes an 83-72 home victory for Miami in their most recent meeting, and a 96-86 (OT) home win for Chicago in their previous meeting in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation.
The UNDER is Under is 20-7 in Bulls last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 home games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bulls last 10 games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-04-13||Indiana Pacers v. Boston Celtics -2||75-94||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The Boston Celtics are more motivated for a win tonight than they have been all season. They are coming off four straight losses while dropping eight of their last 10 games overall. There's no question they will be giving 110% effort to try and right the ship tonight.
A big reason for the Celtics' struggles of late is their schedule, which has featured seven road games. Also, eight of those 10 games have come against teams that would currently be in the playoffs if the season were to end today. It's safe to say the the Celtics are battle-tested heading into this showdown with Indiana.
While the Celtics are undervalued due to their recent cold streak, the Pacers are certainly overvalued due to their recent success. Indiana has won nine of its last 11 games overall. However, seven of their nine wins during this stretch came against teams with losing records. They have simply taken advantage of a very soft schedule over the past month.
The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Roll with the Celtics Friday.
|01-04-13||Texas A&M -3 v. Oklahoma||Top||41-13||Win||100||52 h 44 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -3
The Texas A&M Aggies were very close to winning the SEC West with a chance to play for the national title in Kevin Sumlin
|01-03-13||Idaho v. San Jose St -2.5||64-55||Loss||-109||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Jose State -2.5
The San Jose State Spartans are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. As only a 2.5-point home favorite, I expect them to roll right over the Idaho Vandals Thursday.
San Jose State is off to a solid 7-5 start this season. What is most impressive about this start is the fact that it is 4-1 in true road games with its only loss coming at Kansas by a final of 57-70 as a 27.5-point underdog. That game really showed what this team is capable of. They also have a solid home win over Weber State 68-67 as a 2.5-point dog.
Idaho is simply not a very good team at 5-6 on the season. Its only wins have come against Wisconsin-Green Bay, Cal Davis, Eastern Washington, Walla Walla and Seattle. The Vandals are just 2-4 on the road this season, and they have lost every game they have played against a respectable opponent.
San Jose State is 20-6 ATS after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997. The Spartans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. They want revenge from two losses to Idaho by 8 and 6 points last season. I believe they get it tonight in blowout fashion. Take San Jose State Thursday.
|01-03-13||Minnesota Timberwolves +8 v. Denver Nuggets||101-97||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
15* T'Wolves/Nuggets NBA Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +8
The betting public has jumped all over the Denver Nuggets tonight. This line opened at 6.5 in most places and has already been bet up to 8. I'm going to fade the public and back the Minnesota Timberwolves showing excellent value here tonight.
Denver is overvalued because it just recently put an end to the Los Angeles Cliippers' 17-game winning streak with a 92-78 home victory on Tuesday. That win has the public all over them in this one, and I fully expect the Nuggets to suffer a big emotional letdown after such a huge victory. Also, starting PG Ty Lawson is doubtful to play with an Achilles injury.
Minnesota comes in undervalued after its 84-106 loss at Utah last night. That was arguably the worst game the Timberwolves have played all season, and there's no question they will be motivated to bounce back with a win tonight. I know they are playing a back-to-back, but this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so fatigue won't be a factor.
Minnesota has played Denver very tough in recent meetings. The Nuggets have only beaten the Timberwolves once by more than 7 points in the last six meetings. Minnesota lost 107-113 and 103-101 (OT) in its last two trips to Denver, respectively.
The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and the Timberwolves are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Denver. Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. It is also 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Timberwolves Thursday.
|01-03-13||Kansas State v. Oregon -8||Top||17-35||Win||100||28 h 15 m||Show|
20* K-State/Oregon Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon -8
|01-03-13||Wisc-Milwaukee +18 v. Detroit||59-74||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +18
At 4-10 on the season, the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers are certainly undervalued heading into this showdown with Detroit. The Panthers are also 0-8 on the road this year, where they are getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points/game.
Detroit is overvalued due to its 8-5 start which has included wins in six of its last seven games with its only loss coming at Syracuse. The Titans are also 7-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 15.3 points/game.
A closer look shows that Detroit only has two wins this season by more than 16 points. Those were at home against Northern Michigan (88-53) and Rochester College (102-67), two games where there wasn't a point spread set because they were expected to blow them out.
Only three of Wisconsin-Milwaukee's 10 losses this season have come by more than 16 points. One was a recent 21-point loss at Wisconsin in their last road game. If they can stay within 21 of the Badgers on the road, I have no doubt they can stey within 17 of Detroit away from home.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Thursday.
|01-02-13||UTEP +10.5 v. Colorado St||58-62||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UTEP +10.5
The UTEP Miners should not be catching double-digits against the Colorado State Rams Wednesday. UTEP comes in playing its best basketball of the season having won three straight and five of six overall. Its only loss during this stretch came by a final of 60-62 to a very good UNLV team as a 6.5-point underdog.
Colorado State is off to a very impressive 11-2 start this season, but as a result it is way overvalued heading into this contest Wednesday. It has won five straight, but those five wins have come against North Florida, CS-Bakersfield, Portland, Virginia Tech and Adams State. The Rams will certainly be seeing a step up in competition tonight.
UTEP is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. UTEP is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. Colorado State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet UTEP Wednesday.
|01-02-13||La Salle v. Miami (Fla) -6||59-76||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6
The Miami Hurricanes will be very hungry for a win Wednesday when they host LaSalle. They have lost back-to-back games to Arizona and Indiana State on neutral courts to drop to 8-3 after a hot 8-1 start. I have no doubt they get back on track with a blowout home victory tonight.
Miami is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by 15.6 points/game at home this year. That includes a 67-59 victory over Michigan State and a 77-62 triumph over Detroit. LaSalle has played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and as a result it is overvalued due to its 9-2 start.
LaSalle is 11-24 ATS after having won 4 of its last 5 games since 1997. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 41-17-1 ATS in its last 59 non-conference game. Roll with the Hurricanes Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Louisville +14 v. Florida||Top||33-23||Win||100||123 h 43 m||Show|
25* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +14
The Florida Gators aren
|01-02-13||Missouri State +16 v. Evansville||59-62||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri State +16
The Missouri State Bears are a much better team than their 3-10 record would indicate. They should not be catching 15 points to the Evansville Purple Aces tonight. All 10 of their losses have come by 20 points or less, so they have yet to get really crushed. The Bears come in with confidence after beating Southern Illinois 70-59 in as a 5-point dog in their Missouri Valley opener on December 30th.
Meanwhile, Evansville is reeling after back-to-back losses to Butler and Creighton by a combined 25 points. It is just 7-6 on the season with few blowout wins on its resume. It has beaten Oakland City, Miami Ohio and Tennessee Tech by more than 15 points, but that's not saying much. The Purple Aces also beat Yale by 10, Western Illinois by 5, Tennessee Tech by 12 and Alabama State by 13. I believe Missouri State is better than every team that Evansville has beaten.
This play falls into a system that is 156-99 (61.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (MISSOURI ST) - off an upset win as an underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season. Take Missouri State Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -3.5||79-102||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -3.5
The Toronto Raptors continue going under the radar despite being one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won six of their last seven games overall, including a 123-88 victory at Orlando last time out on December 29th. That means they've had three days' rest heading into this one.
While the Raptors are well-rested, the Portland Trail Blazers come into this game on a back-to-back. They won at New York 105-100 as a 9.5-point underdog, which was a huge win for them. I look for the Blazers to suffer a big letdown here tonight as they simply aren't able to get up emotionally for Toronto after that win inside Madison Square Garden last night.
Portland is 5-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.8 points/game. Toronto is 7-5 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points/game. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Orlando Magic||96-94||Loss||-105||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
The Chicago Bulls will be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been all season. As a result, I'll back them as only a 3.5-point favorite over the lowly Orlando Magic. Chicago has lost three of its last four while going 0-4 ATS in the process.
This recent run has the Bulls way undervalued heading into this contest. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season with an 81-91 home loss to Charlotte, allowing the Bobcats to put an end to their 18-game losing streak. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the best in the business in getting his players to respond from a bad defeat.
Orlando is in a world of hurt right now after losing second-leading scorer Glen Davis (16.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder strain. Now, guards Jameer Nelson (hip) and E'Twuan Moore (elbow) have missed the past two games, and each is questionable to return tonight. Orlando has lost six straight coming in, including a 110-112 overtime loss to Miami last time out. I look for the Magic to suffer a hangover from that tough loss to the rival Heat and drop their 7th straight tonight.
The Bulls are 45-22-2 ATS in their last 69 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Chicago has won six of its last seven meetings with Orlando. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Sacramento Kings v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3||97-94||Loss||-110||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -3
The Cleveland Cavaliers are hungry for a win tonight. They have lost two straight in heartbreaking fashion to Atlanta (94-102) and Brooklyn (100-103) in the closing seconds. I look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly Sacramento Kings tonight and to pick up a blowout home victory.
Cleveland comes in on three days' rest having last played on December 29th in Brooklyn. Meanwhile, Sacramento will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. The Kings lost 97-103 at Detroit last night. They won't be able to match the intensity of the well-rested Cavaliers in this one. The Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
Sacramento is just 1-13 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 10.7 points/game away from home this year. The Kings are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|01-01-13||Philadelphia 76ers +9 v. Los Angeles Lakers||103-99||Win||100||17 h 51 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +9
The Los Angeles Lakers are simply laying too many points to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have not done well in the role of the big favorite over the last several seasons because they always tend to play down to their competition.
Philadelphia is undervalued because it has lost two straight and eight of its last 10 games overall. Each of its last three losses have come on the road by 7 points or less to Brooklyn, Golden State, and Portland. It has won two of its last five with a 99-80 home win over Atlanta, and a 99-89 triumph on the road at Memphis, both playoff teams. This recent stretch certainly has the 76ers motivated for a win here tonight.
The Lakers are overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall. That includes a 104-87 home victory over the hapless Portland Trail Blazers last time out. They could be looking ahead to their game against the Los Angeles Clippers next, who have won 17 straight games.
Los Angeles is 9-26 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 2-14 (88%) ATS in its last 16 Tuesday games. The Lakers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 7-1 ATS (88%) in the last 8 meetings. Take the Lakers Tuesday.
|01-01-13||Wisconsin +7 v. Stanford||14-20||Win||100||95 h 13 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Stanford Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +7
The Badgers will at least have a familiar face guiding the program in in former head coach Barry Alvarez. With his credentials, he certainly demands respect from his players. He
|01-01-13||Michigan v. South Carolina -5||28-33||Push||0||91 h 13 m||Show|
15* Michigan/South Carolina Outback Bowl No-Brainer on South Carolina -5
The Gamecocks were just one loss away from playing for the SEC Championship and a shot at a national title. They beat SEC East champ Georgia 35-7, but followed that up with back-to-back road losses to LSU and Florida for their only setbacks of the season. They only lost 21-23 at LSU, and they gave up just 183 total yards to Florida in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Michigan already played one SEC team this season, and it was not pretty. It lost to Alabama 14-41 on a neutral field on September 1st in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. The Wolverines found themselves down 31-7 at halftime, and they rushed for just 69 yards on 2.4 per carry as a team.
|01-01-13||Yale +20.5 v. Iowa State||70-80||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +20.5
The Yale Bulldogs are showing awesome value as a 20.5-point underdog to the Iowa State Cyclones on Tuesday, January 1st. There's no question that some of these Iowa State players had a little too much fun last night, and they won't be wanting to play at 1:00 EST this afternoon.
This is a huge letdown spot for the Cyclones considering they open Big 12 play next. In fact, they will open conference action with Kansas, which is the team favored to win the Big 12. They will be overlooking Yale enough in this one to not cover the inflated number.
Yale is battle-tested coming in. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to Nevada (75-85) as a 12-point dog, and to St Mary's (62-78) as a 22-point dog. This team is certainly better than its 4-9 record would indicate as eight of its nine losses have come by 16 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (YALE) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. Bet Yale Tuesday.
|01-01-13||Northwestern v. Mississippi State +1.5||Top||34-20||Loss||-110||90 h 13 m||Show|
25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +1.5
This is the most talented team the Bulldogs have had in the Dan Mullen era. There
|12-31-12||Clemson v. LSU UNDER 59.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||75 h 16 m||Show|
25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Clemson/LSU UNDER 59.5
The UNDER in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl between Clemson and LSU represents my strongest college football total for the entire 2012-13 bowl season. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this number by more than two touchdowns.
LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, and it is more than capable of shutting down this Clemson offense Monday. The Tigers are only allowing 16.9 points/game this season while ranking 8th in the country in total defense at 296.2 yards/game.
While LSU has been dominant defensively, its has been sub-par on the other side of the ball. It is only scoring 15.5 points/game on the road this season while ranking 74th in the country in total offense at 387.2 yards/game.
Clemson played a defense in its season finale similar to the one that it will face in the Chick Fil A Bowl. It lost to South Carolina 17-27 for 44 combined points in a game that had a total set of 60.5. It was held to just 328 total yards in the loss. I look for a similar combined score in this contest against LSU.
Clemson is 8-0 to the UNDER in all dome games since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 34.9 points/game in this spot. LSU is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 40.1 points/game in this situation. These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER over since 1992. Bet the UNDER in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Monday.
|12-31-12||Brooklyn Nets +9.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||73-104||Loss||-105||10 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +9.5
The Brooklyn Nets needed a spark and they've gotten it with a coaching change. Avery Johnson has been fired, and interim head coach P.J. Carlesimo has taken over. He has led the Nets to back-to-back wins by a combined 19 points.
I look for the Nets to give the San Antonio Spurs a run for their money tonight. The Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so this is a very tough situation for them.
This play falls into a system that is 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
Brooklyn is way better than it has shown in recent weeks, and as a result it is undervalued heading into this contest tonight. Roll with the Nets Monday.
|12-31-12||Gonzaga v. Oklahoma State -1.5||69-68||Loss||-106||9 h 55 m||Show|
15* Gonzaga/Oky State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State -1.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight. This is a team that is 10-1 on the season with solid neutral court wins over Tennessee (62-45) and NC State (76-56) already.
Oklahoma State is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.7 points/game at home this year. It has been playing tremendous defense this season, limiting opponents to 55.5 points/game and 35.8% shooting overall.
Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the Cowboys. Bet Oklahoma State Monday
|12-31-12||Georgia Tech v. USC UNDER 64||21-7||Win||100||70 h 46 m||Show|
15* Georgia Tech/USC Sun Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 64
The books have set the bar too high in this Sun Bowl showdown between Georgia Tech and USC. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that I foresee neither team scoring more than 31 points.
USC faced some very good rushing teams this season as their opponents averaged 180 yards and 4.4/carry on the ground in 2012. The Trojans clearly have an above-average run D considering they held their opponents to 156 yards/game and 4.0/carry. That's huge considering Georgia Tech runs the triple-option and almost exclusive relies on the run.
USC had a solid offense this season under the guidance of quarterback Matt Barkley. However, Barkley will miss this game due to a shoulder injury, meaning that Max Wittek will get a second straight start in his place.
Things did not go well for Wittek in his first career start as he went just 14 of 23 passing for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in a 13-22 home loss to Notre Dame in USC's season finale.
Georgia Tech came up with arguably its best defensive performance of the season in the ACC Championship. It held Florida State to just 21 points and 328 total yards while forcing three turnovers in a 15-21 loss. I look for it to build off of that performance and to keep Wittek in company in check.
Georgia Tech is 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 December games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in the Sun Bowl Monday.
|12-30-12||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 196||96-107||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195.5
This is a home and home situation for Utah and Los Angeles tonight. These teams just played in Utah on Friday as the Clippers squeaked away with a 116-114 victory. Both teams were on fire as the Clippers shot 49.4%, while the Jazz shots 47.9%. There's no way either team shoots that well again.
I look for the familiarity of these teams having just played two nights ago favors a low-scoring game. Both teams know what one another likes to do offensively, which will allow the defenses to make the proper adjustments to stop it. That high-scoring game Friday has provided is with some excellent line value on the UNDER in this one.
The Clippers have allowed less than 100 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall. In fact, they have yielded 85 or less in six of their last eight contests. The Jazz have scored less than 100 points in eight of their last nine, and they have allowed less than 100 in six of their last nine.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-3 in Clippers last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-30-12||Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins -3||18-28||Win||100||78 h 37 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Redskins NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -3
The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They have won six straight games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the process. After a 3-6 start, this team is simply on a mission to make the playoffs and win the NFC East. This is certainly a team that nobody wants to play right now, and one that won't be stopped Sunday.
Dallas had its momentum stopped with a 31-34 home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week in a game it really thought it had to win to make the playoffs. That was just its second loss in seven games with the other coming at home to the Redskins by a final of 31-38 on Thanksgiving Day.
Washington really dominated that first meeting with the Cowboys in a game that was much more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. This game was essentially over at halftime as the Redskins took a 28-3 lead into intermission. They kind of just coasted the rest of the way, allowing the Cowboys to make it respectable in garbage time with the outcome already decided.
The Redskins are 15-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Washington is 19-4 ATS versus poor rushing teams that average less than 90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC East opponents.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall, 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NFC opponents, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 December games, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings with the Cowboys. These six trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the home team. Roll with the Redskins Sunday.
Recommendation: Buy the Redskins to -3
|12-30-12||Green Bay Packers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||34-37||Loss||-120||74 h 44 m||Show|
25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3
The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last few months. They have gone 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall to make backers a ton of money at the pay window. Rarely will you get them as a favorite of 3 points or less, so this is certainly a generous line from oddsmakers.
Green Bay has been the better team on both sides of the ball this season. It is scoring 26.6 points per game while ranking 13th in the league in total offense at 356.4 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.9 points per game while ranking 10th in the league in total defense at 329.6 yards per game.
Despite being 9-6 on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by 18.9 yards per game. This is one of the most overrated teams in the league, and one that isn't nearly as good as its record. Green Bay beat Minnesota 23-14 in the first meeting despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson.
There's no way the Vikings get another 200-yard day from AP as the Packers make the necessary adjustments to stop the run. And when the Packers do stop the run, the Vikings will be in a world of hurt considering they rank dead last in the NFL in passing offense at 168.3 yards per game.
This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Green Bay is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with Minnesota. All five wins have come by 4 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game. That includes a 23-14 home victory in their first meeting this season as the Packers outgained the Vikings 435-359.
The Packers are 10-1 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 26.4 points per game. Bet the Packers Sunday.
Recommendation: Buy the Packers to -3
|12-30-12||Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions||26-24||Loss||-100||70 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bears -3
The Bears are the only team with something to play for in this one. They are still fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC at 9-6 on the season. They would clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Minnesota loss. Considering the Vikings play the Green Bay Packers in Week 17, the Bears know that there
|12-29-12||Boston Celtics v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 195||83-101||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. I look for neither team to top 95 points in this low-scoring, defensive battle.
Boston will be motivated following one of its worst losses of the season. It fell 77-106 at the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, and off sch a poor defensive performance, there's no question it will be getting after it on that side of the ball tonight.
Golden State is certainly an improved defensive team this season as it is allowing less than 100 points/game this year. It is coming off two of its best defensive performances of the season with a 94-83 win at Utah, and a 96-89 home victory over Philadelphia.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 Saturday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-29-12||TCU -2.5 v. Michigan State||16-17||Loss||-110||52 h 49 m||Show|
15* TCU/Michigan State Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl BAILOUT on TCU -2.5
The Horned Frogs have the better offense in this one. They put up 29.3 points per game this season while ranking 61st in the country in total offense at 397.0 yards per game. Michigan State is scoring just 20.2 points per game while ranking 87th in total offense at 370.3 yards per game.
The Spartans lost their three offensive stars from last season in Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin.
|12-29-12||Ohio v. Oklahoma -3||63-74||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last season, and this is going to be one of the best teams in the Big 12 this season.
Oklahoma is off to a solid 7-3 start, but it is coming off a one-point loss to SF Austin State. It will be highly motivated to bounce back from that loss, and it is undervalued because of it.
Ohio is 8-4 this season, but a closer look at its losses shows that this team clearly has problems. It has road losses to Robert Morris (76-84), Memhis (58-84) and UMass (76-85) as well as a home loss to Richmond.
The Bobcats are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 14.3 points/game. They don't have a good win yet this season. Ohio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-29-12||George Mason v. South Florida -2.5||57-61||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2.5
The South Florida Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. They made a great run to the NCAA Tournament and actually won a game there last year, and they have several key pieces back from that team.
The Bulls have opened 7-3 this season while winning five of their last six contests. The includes a 6-2 mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points/game.
George Mason is just 7-4 on the year. It has losses to Bucknell, New Mexico, Maryland and Northern Iowa. It is coming off a big win at Richmond, but I believe that victory has it overvalued heading into this one.
South Florida is 16-4 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. George Mason is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a S.U. win. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Take South Florida Saturday.
|12-29-12||Oregon State -3 v. Texas||27-31||Loss||-115||48 h 9 m||Show|
15* Oregon State/Texas Alamo Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That is evident by the fact that they are an impressive 8-4 against the spread in all games, making backers a lot of money at the pay window this year. Their only three losses came on the road against Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points, and at home against Oregon.
Texas is not playing well coming into this game having dropped two straight against TCU and Kansas State. It managed a combined 37 total points in the losses while committing seven turnovers. It continues to struggle at the quarterback position as head coach Mack Brown keeps going back and forth between David Ash and Case McCoy.
Oregon State is a sound football team on both sides of the ball. It is scoring 33.0 points per game while ranking 34th in the country in total offense at 442.7 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.7 points per game while ranking 33rd in the land in total defense at 353.7 yards per game.
The biggest strength on the Beavers
|12-29-12||West Virginia v. Syracuse +4||Top||14-38||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
20* WVU/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Syracuse +4
The Syracuse Orange have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They gave away some games early, but really came on strong late. They won three straight games to close out the season with a blowout 45-26 home victory over Louisville, followed by impressive road wins at Missouri and Temple. Louisville won the Big East and will be playing in a BCS bowl.
A closer look at the numbers indicates that the Orange are one of the better teams in the country. They rank 21st in the land in total offense at 473.4 yards per game and a respectable 51st in total defense at 385.1 yards per game. They have a huge edge on defense considering West Virginia ranks just 110th in total yards allowed at 469.6.
Syracuse has a mental edge over former Big East rivalry West Virginia having won each of the last two meetings over the past two seasons. It won 19-14 on the road as a 13.5-point underdog in 2010, then came back with an even more impressive 49-23 home victory as a 14-point dog in 2011. Ryan Nassib threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns in the win, and he
|12-29-12||Virginia Tech +10 v. Brigham Young||71-97||Loss||-106||4 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +10
This line is an overreaction from the results of last game for both teams. Virginia Tech suffered its worst loss of the season 52-88 to Colorado State, while BYU rolled over Northern Arizona 84-54.
At 9-3 on the season, I still believe Virginia Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country. BYU doesn't really have a good win all season. It lost to Florida State (70-88), Notre Dame (68-78), Iowa State (62-83) and Baylor (64-79). The Cougars have no business being a double-digit favorite in this one.
BYU is 0-6 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-17 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 1-10 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-28-12||Toronto Raptors v. New Orleans Hornets -2.5||104-97||Loss||-107||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2.5
The New Orleans Hornets are way undervalued due to their recent 11-game losing streak. Seven of those 11 losses came by 7 points or less, so they just weren't getting the breaks. They beat the Orlando Magic 97-94 last time out on Wednesday to put an end to the skid, and I look for them to go on a nice run here with the Raptors and Bobcats up next.
Toronto comes into this game way overvalued after having won five of its last six games overall. Four of those wins came at home against the lowly Magic, Pistons, Rockets and Mavericks. They also won at Cleveland, but were torched 80-100 at San Antonio on Wednesday to put an end to their five-game winning streak. They should be a much bigger dog tonight on the road against the Hornets.
The Raptors are just 2-15 SU & 6-11 ATS on the road this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 10.5 points/game away from home thus far in 2012. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|12-28-12||Miami Heat v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191.5||99-109||Loss||-105||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 191.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. Miami is going to be without second-leading scorer Dwyane Wade (suspension), and it could be without their best shooter Ray Allen (shoulder), who is listed as questionable.
A look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Miami beat Detroit 98-75 on April 8th in their most recent showdown for 173 combined points. The Heat topped the Pistons 88-73 for 161 combined points in their previous meeting on March 23rd.
Detroit has combined for 188 or fewer points with five of its last six opponents. The only exception was a double-overtime loss at Atlanta last time out. They combined for 165 points with Indiana, 164 with the Los Angeles Clippers, 188 with Toronto, 168 with Washington and 185 again with Washington.
The Pistons are 18-4 to the UNDER in their last 22 games after allowing 120 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Heat last 13 Friday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-28-12||Charlotte Bobcats v. Brooklyn Nets -9.5||81-97||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -9.5
The Brooklyn Nets have just made a coaching change amidst their poor run of 10 losses in their last 13 games. Avery Johnson has been fired, replaced by veteran head coach P.J. Carlesimo. I believe this move will spark new life into the Nets and give them a big boost tonight.
This is still one of the most talented teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before the right coach puts it all together. The Nets have an excellent chance of working out the kinks against a Charlotte Bobcats team that is arguably the worst in the league once again in 2012-13.
Charlotte has lost 16 straight games heading into this contest. It is just 7-21 on the season, including 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 road games. It is getting outscored by an average of 14.3 points/game away from home this season.
The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Charlotte is 11-32 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 3-16 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Nets Friday.
|12-28-12||Rutgers v. Virginia Tech -2||Top||10-13||Win||100||48 h 8 m||Show|
20* Rutgers/VA Tech Russell Athletic Bowl No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -2
The Hokies simply underachieved this season after coming into the season with lofty expectations. They did manage to rebound down the stretch, winning their final two games against Boston College and Virginia to become bowl eligible. It would have been three in a row if not for a last-second loss to Florida State by a final of 22-28, which was a game that showed what this team is capable of.
Rutgers is deflated following two straight losses to close out the season. It played Louisville for all the marbles in its season finale on November 29th, but blew a double-digit lead to fall 17-20. That loss cost the Scarlet Knights a trip to the Sugar Bowl against Florida. These players will have hard time getting motivated to play in the Russell Athletic Bowl after letting such a big opportunity slip by.
|12-28-12||Ohio +7 v. Louisiana Monroe||45-14||Win||100||45 h 37 m||Show|
15* Ohio/ULM Independence Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7
Following three straight losses, there
|12-27-12||Boston Celtics +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-106||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +8.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak. There's no question that it's an impressive run, but now is the time to fade them against a gritty Boston Celtics team that will simply want this one more.
Boston is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season, and it should be getting more respect than it is from oddsmakers because of it. The Celtics went into Brooklyn and came away with a 93-76 road victory on Christmas Day. They limited the Nets to 40.6 percent shooting while forcing 20 turnovers.
Boston has won three of its last four meetings with Los Angeles. It is 2-0 in its last two visits to Los Angeles, including a 94-85 victory as a 5.5-point underdog in the most recent meeting between these teams. In fact, it hasn't lost any of its last five trips to L.A. by more than 2 points.
The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. Take the Celtics Thursday.
|12-27-12||Baylor +3 v. UCLA Bruins||49-26||Win||100||29 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3
The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it
|12-27-12||Cincinnati v. Duke +8||Top||48-34||Loss||-110||25 h 8 m||Show|
20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +8
The Blue Devils are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this season. This is their first trip to a bowl game since 1994. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his best team in five years with the program, and that really showed this season. These players want to be here more than the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati had high hopes coming into the season of winning the Big East to play in a BCS bowl game. That didn
|12-26-12||Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz UNDER 204||94-83||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 204
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz. The biggest reason I like this UNDER is the fact that Utah is without starting point guard Mo Williams, who is averaging 12.9 points and 6.7 assists per game.
Without Williams, Utah's offense won't be very efficient. They'll slow it down even more and look to get the ball inside to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap one just about every possession. The Jazz have been playing in many low-scoring games of late. In fact, each of their last seven contests have seen 195 or less combined points.
Golden State is coming off three straight high-scoring games, including a 115-118 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in overtime last time out. That's a big reason why this total has been inflated tonight. I look for Utah to control to the tempo at home and for this game to be slowed down to a snail's pace without Williams out there running the show. The Jazz are allowing just 94.3 points/game at home this year.
The Warriors are 15-4 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 15-4 to the UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 28-9 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.
These teams have combined for 203 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings overall, including 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Utah dating back to 2009. The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-26-12||Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs -13||80-100||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -13
The San Antonio Spurs have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They are 10-2 at home where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.1 points/game. That includes a 129-91 victory over Dallas last time out on December 23rd, and this team is even more dangerous when given a lot of rest.
Toronto is overvalued right now due to its 5-game winning streak. Those five victories came over the Mgaic, Pistons, Cavs, Rockets and Mavericks with four of them coming at home. The Raptors have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 2-14 SU & 6-10 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 10.0 points/game.
The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. San Antonio is 20-5-2 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 35-13-4 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 36-14-3 ATS in its last 53 home games. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|12-26-12||Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 57||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||68 h 7 m||Show|
20* CMU/WKU Pizza Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57
I look for a shootout in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky Wednesday. This game will be played inside a dome at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. That means the scoring conditions will be optimal for these two solid offenses.
Central Michigan really picked up the pace at the end of the season offensively, scoring 30 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 scores.
Western Kentucky put up an average of 28.7 points/game this season. RB Antonio Andrews will get plenty of touches as he makes a bid to set a single-season NCAA record for all-purpose yards. Andrews, who rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 touchdowns, also has 957 return yards and 2,977 overall. The junior needs 274 yards to surpass Barry Sanders' mark of 3,250 from his 1988 Heisman Trophy-winning season.
While the Hilltoppers did have a solid defense with three players earning all-conference honors. However, the anchor of that unit - Sun Belt defensive player of the year and defensive end Quanterus Smith - is out due to a knee injury suffered Nov. 17 against Louisiana-Lafayette. He had an FBS-leading 1.25 sacks per game and 12 1/2 overall in 10 games.
Western Kentucky gave up an average of 31.5 points/game over their last four games heading into the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan gave up 33.3 points/game this season while ranking 93rd in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).
Central Michigan is 7-0 to the OVER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Chippewas are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 6-0 to the OVER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Wednesday.
|12-26-12||New Orleans Hornets +3 v. Orlando Magic||97-94||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +3
The New Orleans Hornets are highly motivated for a win tonight. They blew a 21-point lead to Indiana last time out to lose 75-81 as the Pacers handed them their 11th straight defeat. They have simply not been able to get the breaks to go their way as seven of those 11 losses have come by 7 points or less.
A Christmas Break is just what this New Orleans needed to regroup. While the Hornets are almost back at full strength health-wise, the Magic are not. They just loss Glen Davis to a shoulder injury for the 4-6 weeks. That is a huge blow considering Davis was second on the team in scoring (16.0 PPG) and second in rebounding (7.9 RPG).
New Orleans is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games following 4 or more consecutive losses. The Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog. Orlando is 0-7 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet New Orleans Wednesday.
|12-25-12||Denver Nuggets +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers||100-112||Loss||-107||24 h 34 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +7
The Denver Nuggets are showing great value as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Tuesday. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to its current 13-game winning streak and counting. The Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their mediocre 15-13 start against an absolutely brutal schedule.
Denver has played 19 of its first 28 games on the road this season. They've done an excellent job of posting a winning record despite that schedule, and they are playing their best basketball of late. The Nuggets have won four of their last five, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They would love nothing more than to put an end to the Clippers' winning streak.
The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|12-25-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat UNDER 206||97-103||Win||100||19 h 40 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on UNDER 206
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat are very familiar with one another after playing in the NBA Finals this past June. Their series went to five games with Miami winning the final four to win the championship. Four of those five meeting saw 202 or less combined points, so they were typically low-scoring. I look for this rematch in the regular season to follow suit with less than 206 combined points by game's end.
Both teams have been very solid defensively. Oklahoma City is giving up 96.2 points/game overall, and it are combineing with their opponents to average 196.9 points/game on the road this season. Miami is giving up 97.4 points/game overall, and it is combining with its opponents to average 200.8 points/game in all games this year. As you can see, both teams are combining with their opponents to average well less than this posted total.
Miami is 18-4 to the UNDER after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma City is 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat's last 5 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-25-12||New York Knicks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 214.5||Top||94-100||Win||100||16 h 55 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Lakers Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers. These teams are very familiar with one another after playing each other recently. New York beat Los Angeles 116-107 on December 13th less than two weeks ago. Because of that high-scoring affair, oddsmakers have inflated this total in the rematch, which I anticipate to be much more lower scoring.
Both teams know how to defend, especially the Knicks, who are giving up just 96.5 points/game on the season. The Lakers have been defending well at home this year, limiting opponents to just 96.1 points/game. They are scoring 101.5 points/game at home, so they are combining with their opponents to average 197.6 points/game. New York is combining with its opponents to average 198.7 points/game on the road this year. As you can see, both numbers are well below the posted total in this one.
The UNDER is 42-19-1 in Lakers last 62 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Lakers are 15-5 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-24-12||SMU v. Fresno State -11.5||Top||43-10||Loss||-101||21 h 52 m||Show|
20* Fresno/SMU Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on Fresno State -11.5
The Bulldogs have been the best team in the country at the pay window this season. Not only did they go 9-3 and while clinching a share of the Mountain West title, they also went an incredible 11-1 against the spread in the process. This team has certainly been going under the radar all season.
They are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game, so they
|12-23-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1||13-42||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +1
The Seahawks have a ton to play for in this one. They would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the season were to end today, and they are trying to fend off several 8-6 teams in their conference. They can also pull to within one-half game of the 49ers for the NFC West division lead with a victory heading into Week 17.
Seattle has been playing its best football in the second half of the season, especially over the last two weeks. It has won five of its last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits. That includes a 58-0 home victory over Arizona on December 9th, and a 50-17 triumph in Toronto against Buffalo last Sunday.
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread at home this season, yet they are an underdog in this one. They are scoring 30.2 points per game and allowing just 11.5 points per game at home this year. As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.7 points per game inside of CenturyLink Field in 2012.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home teams (SEATTLE)
|12-23-12||Chicago Bears -5 v. Arizona Cardinals||28-13||Win||100||68 h 26 m||Show|
15* Bears/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -5
The Chicago Bears are showing arguably their best value of the season Sunday as only a 5-point favorite at Arizona. The Bears are undervalued right now due to a stretch of poor play heading into this one, while the Cardinals are overvalued after a big win last week.
The Bears have lost five of their last six games overall, but all six of those contests came against playoff contenders. They played the Texans, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks and Vikings twice during this stretch. With so much still to play for, there's no question the they will be laying it all on the line Sunday.
Finally, Chicago gets a break in its schedule in Week 16 against the hapless Arizona Cardinals (5-9). This is the same Cardinals' team that had lost nine games in a row before a 38-10 home victory over the Detroit Lions last week. They don't have much reason to show up for this game with nothing other than pride to play for.
That win over the Lions was far from the blowout that it appeared on the scoreboard. Arizona only gained 196 total yards while giving up 312 total yards. It's really hard to score 38 points when only gaining 196 yards, but the Lions simply gift-wrapped the Cardinals most of their points by committing four turnovers.
That's important considering Arizona is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 18.9 points per game. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|12-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5||92-95||Loss||-110||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5
The Brooklyn Nets are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday. They have lost three straight and eight of 10 coming in to sit just one game over .500 on the season. There's no question that they want to put an end to this skid.
Brooklyn has had plenty of time to stew over its recent losing streak. It hasn't played since Wednesday, December 19th so it has had three days' rest in between games. The Nets have had time to regroup and prepare for the 76ers, which will make the difference in this one.
Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Philly is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These four trends combine for a 23-2 (92%) System backing Brooklyn. Roll with the Nets Sunday.
|12-23-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3||Top||13-10||Loss||-115||66 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Trailing the Bengals by one game for the 6th and final wild-card spot in the AFC, this is a must-win game for the Steelers. A loss and they would be eliminated from postseason contention. This team has been great in these situations while winning two Super Bowls under Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh simply owns this series with Cincinnati. It has won five straight meetings while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Dating back further, it has won 14 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.
The Steelers topped the Bengals 24-17 on the road in their first meeting of the season on October 21st. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 for the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, while Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards in the win.
Pittsburgh is 46-23 ATS in its last 69 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game in this spot.
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 8-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers. These four trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|12-23-12||New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys -2.5||34-31||Loss||-110||65 h 25 m||Show|
15* Saints/Cowboys NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5
The Cowboys are playing their best football of the season right now when the games have mattered most. Looking dead to the water after a 3-5 start, Dallas has reeled off five wins in its last six games to get to 8-6 on the season. It is now tied with Washington and New York atop the NFC East division.
At 6-8 on the season, the New Orleans Saints do not have much to play for. Their only real motivation is to play for pride and for the role of spoiler. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have everything to play for with the division title or a wild-card berth at stake.
Dallas has the superior defense in this one by far. It ranks a respectable 14th in the league in total defense at 340.3 yards per game allowed. New Orleans is yielding 27.1 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 433.6 yards per game. The Cowboys will come up with more stops in this one, which will be the difference.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS)
|12-23-12||Minnesota Vikings v. Houston Texans -7.5||23-6||Loss||-110||65 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -7.5
The Houston Texans have everything to play for in this one. With a win against the overrated Minnesota Vikings Sunday, the Texans will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That means they are playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Minnesota comes in way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams. Both of those wins were gift-wrapped to the Vikings considering Chicago outgained them 438-248, while St. Louis outgained them 432-322. The Vikings won't get away with such sloppy defense against the Texans this time around.
Stopping Adrian Peterson is the key to stopping Minnesota. In addition to owning the AFC's best record, Houston (12-2) has the fifth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 93.2 yards per game and a league-low three rushing touchdowns. The Vikings rank last in the NFL in passing offense (168.1 yards/game), so this is a terrible match-up for them.
Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 17.5 points/game. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 17.9 points/game. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|12-22-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors||118-115||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK
The Los Angeles Lakers come in fresh and ready to go. They will be working on three days' rest since last beating the Charlotte Bobcats at home on December 18th. This extra practice time will do wonders for the Lakers as they continue to try and get down Mike D'Antoni's system.
While the Lakers come in fresh, the Golden State Warriors will be extremely exhausted. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days, and their 6th game in 9 days tonight. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Lakers in this one.
Los Angeles has simply owned this series with Golden State. It has won 17 of the last 18 meetings dating back to 2008, winning 94% of the time. Given the situation and their dominance in this series, the Lakers should be a heavy favorite tonight and they're not.
This play falls into a system that is 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.
|12-22-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5||31-18||Loss||-110||48 h 28 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Lions NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +4.5
This line is simply be an overreaction from what happened last week. Obviously, the Falcons blew out the defending Super Bowl champs, while the Lions were upset in blowout fashion by one of the worst teams in the league.
|12-22-12||Western Kentucky +21.5 v. Louisville||55-78||Loss||-106||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +21.5
The Louisville Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot here Saturday in this neutral court showdown with Western Kentucky played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. They have arch rival Kentucky on deck and will be looking ahead to that contest.
Western Kentucky is a solid team at 8-4. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to a pair of very good teams in Murray State and Virginia Commonwealth. Those two games have the Hilltoppers battle-tested an hungry for a victory heading into this showdown with Louisville.
This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 20 or more points (W KENTUCKY) - after a blowout loss by 30 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.
|12-22-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets +1||96-121||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +1
The Houston Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Memphis Grizzlies. They have won four of their last five games overall, which includes a 109-96 victory at New York.
While the Rockets come in on two days' rest, the Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. There's no question that Houston will be the fresher team, and with the way it is playing right now, it should be laying points instead of being the underdog.
Houston is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 6.3 points/game. Bet the Rockets Saturday.
|12-22-12||Bradley v. Virginia Tech -2.5||65-66||Loss||-102||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They should be a heavier favorite tonight over Bradley in this neutral court showdown at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
The Hokies opened 7-0 before losing two of their last three games to West Virginia and Georgia Southern by a combined 6 points. That loss to Southern last time out is really not sitting well with Virginia Tech, and I look for its players to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.
While Virginia Tech has had six days to stew over that loss to Georgia Southern and prepare for Bradley, the Braves are working on little rest. This will be the 3rd game in 6 days for Bradley, which puts it at a huge disadvantage in rest and preparation.
The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Hokies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-22-12||Washington +6 v. Boise State||Top||26-28||Win||100||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Washington/Boise State Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Washington Huskies played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos did this season, and they are more battle-tested heading into this contest because of it. This will arguably be Boise State
|12-21-12||Southern Methodist -2.5 v. Wagner||53-63||Loss||-106||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -2.5
The SMU Mustangs have been going under the radar this season. They are coached by former NBA great Larry Brown, who is quietly turning this program around. Brown has his Mustangs off to an 8-3 start this season.
Wagner doesn't have near the talent of SMU, and it should not be betting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its only wins this season have come against NC Central, Princeton, Hofstra and Coppin State. It is no match for the Mustangs in this one.
What is most impressive about SMU's 8-3 start is the fact that it has already played seven road games in its first 11 contests. It has won four of those road games, including a 73-47 win at Hofstra. As stated before, Wagner also played Hofstra, winning by a narrow margin of 52-44.
Common opponents are a good way to compare teams, and SMU is clearly the superior squad when you look at their meetings with Hofstra. This contest on a neutral court won't even be close folks. Take SMU Friday.