|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-15-13||St Louis Rams +7 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||24-31||Push||0||59 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7
The St. Louis Rams are showing excellent value as a touchdown underdog to the Atlanta Falcons Sunday. I believe the Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the league in 2013, and they are off to a nice start with a 24-21 home victory over Arizona in Week 1.
Off a 13-3 season last year where almost everything went right in close games, the Atlanta Falcons are sure to regress in 2013. That has been the case already with a 17-23 loss at New Orleans in Week 1. The Falcons went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season. There's a very good chance this game will fall into that category with the final margin being by a touchdown or less either way.
Atlanta lost a lot on defense in the offseason, and it was a below-average defensive team last season. I look for the Falcons to have to try and win a lot of shootouts this year. Meanwhile, the Rams have one of the best young defenses in the league. Now, they have finally added a plethora of weapons for Sam Bradford offensively. That includes tight end Jared Cook, who had seven receptions for 141 yards and two touchdowns in his first game with St. Louis against Arizona.
St. Louis also upgraded its offensive line in the offseason after giving up a league-worst 55 sacks last year. They didn't allow any sacks against the Cardinals. "I can't say enough about those guys up front," Bradford said. "They played outstanding, and I think it shows that we've taken leaps and bounds from where we were last year."
Matt Ryan was sacked three times against the Saints last week. Some of these struggles are likely the result of the state of flux on the Falcons' offensive line. Left tackle Sam Baker and left guard Justin Blalock are the only holdovers from last year's starting unit, while Peter Konz has shifted from guard to center to replace the retired Todd McClure.
Atlanta's offense was held to just 17 points last week against a weak New Orleans defense. A big reason for that was the injury to Roddy White, who was simply used as a decoy. White had only two catches for 19 yards last week while playing injured. Both White (ankle) and Julio Jones (knee) are banged up but probable, and this offense is far less explosive without these two at 100%.
Jeff Fisher is 11-3 ATS as an underdog as the coach of St. Louis. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Fisher is 23-9 ATS off a home win against a division rival in all games he has coached. Take the Rams Sunday.
Note: I recommend buying the Rams to +7
|09-14-13||Wisconsin v. Arizona State -5||Top||30-32||Loss||-110||52 h 17 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/ASU ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Arizona State -5
I fully expect the Sun Devils to compete for a Pac-12 Title in 2013. That
|09-14-13||Ole Miss +3 v. Texas||44-23||Win||100||50 h 46 m||Show|
15* Ole Miss/Texas SEC vs. Big 12 No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3
Hugh Freeze has the Ole Miss football program on the rise. After guiding Arkansas State to 10 wins and a Sun Belt Title in his first year there in 2011, Freeze came to Ole Miss and got the Rebels to their first bowl game since 2009 last season. Now, with 19 returning starters and 59 lettermen, this team is clearly a sleeper in the SEC West Division.
The defense is loaded with 10 returning starters. The offense welcomes back QB Bo Wallace, who completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,994 yards with 22 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, while also rushing for 390 yards and eight scores last year. Also back is leading rusher Jeff Scott as well as the top three receivers from 2012. Ole Miss is off to a solid 2-0 start, which included an impressive 39-35 victory at Vanderbilt in its opener.
Texas is in a world of hurt right now. It just gave up 679 total yards, including a ridiculous 550 rushing in a 21-40 loss at BYU last week. It will be changing defensive coordinators, but Greg Robinson cannot go out and play the game for his team. The fact of the matter is that Texas simply lacks good players on the defensive side of the football. Also, QB David Ash suffered a head injury in the loss and is expected to sit this week. Texas will have a hard time stopping an Ole Miss offense that is averaging 35.0 points and 510.5 total yards per game through its first two contests.
Don't underestimate the power of revenge. Sure, Texas will be motivated off its loss to BYU, but the Rebels want this one more after suffering their worst loss of the season to the Longhorns last year by a final of 66-31. Ole Miss is 15-5 in its last 20 non-conference games. The Rebels are 5-1 against the number in their last six road games. The Longhorns are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Freeze is 21-6 against the spread in all games he has coached. Freeze is 10-2 against the number in road games as a head coach. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|09-14-13||Maryland v. Connecticut +7||32-21||Loss||-115||49 h 15 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Connecticut +7
This line is an overreaction from the results in the early going. Maryland has had two blowout wins, while Connecticut has had an ugly home loss to an FCS opponent. That provides some nice line value here with the home underdog, especially when you consider the Huskies have had two weeks to steam over their loss to Towson, and to prepare for Maryland. They last played on Thursday, August 29, so it has actually been over two weeks since they last played.
|09-14-13||Florida Atlantic +13 v. South Florida||Top||28-10||Win||100||49 h 47 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Florida Atlantic +13
Despite being a covering machine, Florida Atlantic continues getting disrespected from oddsmakers. I'm 2-0 backing FAU this season with covers against Miami and East Carolina on the road. I'll back them again in Week 3 as they should not be a 13-point underdog to the lowly South Florida Bulls. I actually believe the Owls will win this game outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance.
FAU returned 15 starters from a team that was much better than its 3-9 record would indicate last season. It played a brutal schedule that included Alabama and Georgia, and the schedule hasn't been any easier in the early going with road games at ECU and Miami. It has handled itself well, and now it is battle-tested heading into this showdown with South Florida, which is by far its easiest game yet.
Carl Pelini's Owls returned 15 starters and 54 lettermen from last year's team, so this is a very experienced bunch. Meanwhile, South Florida is in rebuilding mode with just 13 starters and 43 lettermen back, and a new head coach in Willie Taggart. He takes over a USF program that has gone 8-16 over the past two seasons, including a 3-9 campaign last year.
South Florida has looked terrible in its 0-2 start. In fact, it lost to McNeese State 21-53 in its opener despite being a 20.5-point home favorite. While it did keep last week's game against Michigan State close, it still lost 6-21 and managed a mere 155 total yards. The offense has been atrocious for the Bulls, averaging just 13.5 points and 248.5 total yards per game. USF quarterbacks are completing just 37.9 percent of their passes on the season.
Florida Atlantic is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The Owls are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. USF is 0-6 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. South Florida is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game. FAU is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 road games. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. USF is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win. These last six trends combine for a perfect 38-0 system backing the Owls. Take Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|09-14-13||Kent State +37 v. LSU||13-45||Win||100||49 h 46 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +37
With their SEC opener on deck against Auburn, this could be a big look-ahead spot for the LSU Tigers. They are getting a ton of love after covering the spread in their first two games against TCU and UAB. Asking them to win by more than 37 points against Kent State is asking a little too much in this one. I could easily see them just going through the motions here.
Remember, Kent State went 11-3 last season and was an overtime loss to Northern Illinois away from likely playing in a BCS game. The cupboard isn
|09-14-13||Memphis v. Middle Tenn State OVER 52||15-17||Loss||-111||49 h 46 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/Middle Tennessee OVER 52
I fully expect a shootout Saturday between Memphis and Middle Tennessee State. This has been a high-scoring series of late is one of the reasons I'm backing the OVER. Another is that both defenses are atrocious, so the offenses should have their ways in this one.
Memphis gave up 30.3 points per game last season. The defense is off to a poor start after allowing 470 total yards to Duke in the opener. Middle Tennessee gave up 28.0 points per game last year. It is off to a poor start as well, giving up averages of 32.0 points and 441.0 total yards per game while opening 1-1 against Western Carolina and North Carolina.
Both offenses should be improved this season. Memphis returned eight starters from an offense that put up 28, 37, 46 and 42 points over its final four games last season. Middle Tennessee has nine starters back from an offense that put up 31-plus points in six different games last year. The Blue Raiders are off to a hot start offensively, averaging 32.5 points and 438.0 total yards per game through two contests.
The last two meetings in this series have been shootouts. Middle Tennessee beat Memphis 38-31 at home in 2011 for 69 combined points. The Blue Raiders were also victorious on the road in 2012 by a final of 48-30 for 78 combined points. Given those recent meetings, plus the poor defenses and improved offenses, these two teams should have no problem combining for more than 52 points in this one.
The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. CUSA opponents. The OVER 13-4-2 in Blue Raiders last 19 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 8-3-1 in Blue Raiders last 12 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 9-4-1 in Middle Tennessee's last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.
|09-14-13||Washington -9.5 v. Illinois||34-24||Win||100||48 h 45 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington -9.5
The Huskies have put together identical 7-6 seasons in each of Steve Sarkisians last three years on the job. Now, Sarkisian finally has his best team yet with 18 starters and 58 lettermen returning in 2013. Washington is a real sleeper to win the Pac-12 this season, and it showed what it is capable of with a 38-6 season-opening victory over Boise State in Week 1.
Washington thoroughly dominated Boise State, outgaining it 592-346 for the game. To no surprise, this offense that returned 10 starters from last season was extremely explosive. Quarterback Keith Price completed 23 of 31 passes for 324 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Bishop Sankey, who rushed for 1,439 yards and 16 touchdowns a year ago, picked up right where he left off. Sankey ran for 161 yards and two scores against Boise State.
The Huskies' offense put up those gaudy numbers against Boise State even without tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He was suspended due to an offseason DUI, but is expected to return this week against Illinois. That's a huge bonus considering Seferian-Jenkins caught 69 balls for 850 yards and seven touchdowns last year. He'll be a match-up nightmare for the Fighting Illini.
Illinois is coming off a 2-10 season in head coach Tim Bekman
|09-14-13||Baltimore Orioles -140 v. Toronto Blue Jays||3-4||Loss||-140||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -140
The Baltimore Orioles (78-69) are fighting for their postseason lives as they trail the Tampa Bay Rays by just 2.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Toronto Blue Jays (67-80) are simply going through the motions as they play out their season.
I'll back Baltimore Saturday based on its motivational edge and the advantage it has on the mound. Chris Tillman is having a stellar season for the Orioles, going 16-5 with a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts, including 8-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 13 road starts. Baltimore is 10-3 in those road starts.
Esmil Rogers has gone 5-7 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 17 starts and 25 relief appearances for Toronto. The right-hander has been at his worst at home, going 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in seven home starts in 2013.
Tillman is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. The Orioles are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Toronto is 0-7 in Rogers' last 7 starts when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in its previous game. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing Baltimore. Take the Orioles Saturday.
|09-14-13||UCLA Bruins +4.5 v. Nebraska||41-21||Win||100||42 h 46 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Nebraska ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +4.5
First and foremost, the Bruins are coming off a bye week following their 58-20 drubbing of Nevada in their opener. Getting two weeks to prepare for Nebraska is certainly a huge advantage heading into this one. UCLA pretty much dominated the Huskers in last year
|09-13-13||Air Force v. Boise State OVER 57||Top||20-42||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
20* Air Force/Boise State ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 57
From what I've seen from both defenses thus far, I have no doubt this is going to be a shootout tonight between Air Force and Boise State. These teams combined for 63 total points in a 37-26 Boise State victory in their most recent meeting in 2011, and I look for 63-plus in this one as well.
Air Force lost 20-52 at home to Utah State last week. It gave up 577 total yards in the defeat. I look for Boise State to approach 50 points against this soft Falcons' defense. The Broncos put up 63 points on Tennessee-Martin last week.
Boise State's opener showed how vulnerable its defense really is this year. The Broncos gave up 38 points and a ridiculous 592 total yards to Washington in Week 1. Boise State even allowed 357 total yards to Tennessee-Martin last week.
With the lack of experience each team has back on defense from last year, it's easy to see why both stop units are struggling in the early going. Boise State only returned four starters on defense and lost 10 of its top 16 tacklers from a year ago. Air Force only has six starters back on defense and loses each of its top three tacklers who had 128, 101 and 92 tackles, respectively.
Air Force is a running team that is averaging 285 rushing yards on 5.1/carry thus far. Boise State has been horrible against the run, giving up 207 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry. The Broncos gave up 268 rushing yards on 5.0/carry against Washington in Week 1.
The OVER is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 games in September. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|09-13-13||Baltimore Orioles -120 v. Toronto Blue Jays||5-3||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -120
The Orioles simply need this one more. They are fighting for their postseason lives and I fully expect them to win. I'll back them at this price and fade Todd Redmond, who is 2-1 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.
Note: Condensed analysis today
|09-12-13||San Francisco Giants +165 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||2-3||Loss||-100||11 h 46 m||Show|
15* Giants/Dodgers NL West BAILOUT on San Francisco +165
The San Francisco Giants always get up to play their NL West and instate rivals. That's why I'll back them at an excellent price Thursday to take down the Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco has won three of four coming in, so it hasn't packed it in just yet.
Ace Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants. He has had an unlucky season thus far to say the least because in spite of an impressive 1.168 WHIP on the season, he sports a 4.37 ERA. Cain has been at his best on the road, going 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 11 starts.
Cain has all three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts against the Dodgers. In fact, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of those 10 starts, and one earned run or less in five of them.
The Giants are an impressive 13-5 in Cain's last 18 starts as a road underdog. Cain is 19-7 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 12-20 (-14.5 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the Giants Thursday.
|09-12-13||NY Jets +13 v. New England Patriots||Top||10-13||Win||100||55 h 33 m||Show|
20* Jets/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +13
The Jets actually played a very good game against the Buccaneers overall in what should have been a bigger blowout last week. They put up a respectable 304 total yards behind rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who completed 24 of 38 passes for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also showed some guts late in leading the Jets down the field to set up the game-winning field goal.
New York was even more impressive on the other side of the ball, holding a very solid Tampa Bay offense to just 250 total yards. It limited Josh Freeman to 15 of 31 passing for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It also held the electric Doug Martin to only 65 rushing yards on 24 carries.
New England clearly had some chemistry issues against Buffalo, needing a last-second field goal to win 23-21 despite being a double-digit favorite. It will not be able solve those issues in less than a week
|09-12-13||Troy +7.5 v. Arkansas State||34-41||Win||100||54 h 54 m||Show|
15* Troy/Arkansas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +7.5
The Trojans appear to have turned the corner in 2013. Remember, this is a team that has won or shared five straight Sun Belt Titles from 2006-
|09-12-13||Tulane +7.5 v. Louisiana Tech||Top||24-15||Win||100||54 h 39 m||Show|
20* Tulane/LA Tech Conference USA No-Brainer on Tulane +7.5
Louisiana Tech is clearly in rebuilding mode in head coach Skip Holtz
|09-12-13||Los Angeles Angels v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9||4-3||Loss||-105||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* AL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Blue Jays OVER 9
The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays Thursday. I look for an absolute slug fest in this contest and wouldn't be surprised if one of these teams takes care of this OVER by themselves.
These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball as the Angels are averaging 4.6 runs/game, while the Blue Jays are putting up 4.5 runs/game. Both starting pitchers are below-average, too.
J.A. Happ is in line to get rocked. The left-hander is 4-5 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Garrett Richard has been decent at 6-6 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.300 WHIP on the season. However, he has been at his worst on the road, going 1-4 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in six starts away from home.
The OVER is a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. There have been 9 runs or more scored in all 10 meetings, and 10 or more runs in nine of those. Enough said. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|09-11-13||Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers -120||Top||4-1||Loss||-120||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* DBacks/Dodgers NL West BAILOUT on Los Angeles -120
The Los Angeles Dodgers (85-59) are still fighting for home-field advantage in the National League even they they pretty much have the NL West wrapped up. I look for them to sweep the hapless Arizona Diamondbacks (72-72), who have lost three straight and realize their chances of making the postseason are out the window.
Getting Los Angeles starter Hyun-Jin Ryu at this price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The left-hander has gone 13-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in 26 starts this season. Ryu has been nearly untouchable at home, going 7-2 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.092 WHIP over 13 starts.
Pat Corbin is having a very good season overall for Arizona. However, he is starting to wear down in his first season as a full-time starter. Corbin is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in his last three starts overall.
The Diamondbacks are 9-26 in their last 35 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Dodgers are 10-2 in Ryu's last 12 home starts. Los Angeles is 24-6 in its last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Dodgers are 21-5 in their last 26 vs. NL West opponents. Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last 5 meetings with Arizona. Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.
|09-10-13||Colorado Rockies +114 v. San Francisco Giants||9-8||Win||114||12 h 15 m||Show|
15* Rockies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +114
The Colorado Rockies get the call Tuesday as a road underdog to the San Francisco Giants. Both teams are out of the playoff race, which is why I like to side with the value and back the Rockies because I believe they have the edge on the mound here.
Jorge De La Rosa has quietly had a very good season for the Rockies. The left-hander is 16-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 29 starts this year. De La Rosa is also 8-4 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 15 career starts against San Francisco.
Ryan Vogelsong has had a nightmare season for the Giants. The right-hander is 3-5 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in 15 starts this year. The Rockies are hitting .267 and scoring 4.4 runs/game against right-handed starters in 2013, while the Giants are hitting .268 and scoring 3.8 runs/game against left-handed starters.
The Rockies are 37-14 in De La Rosa's last 51 starts vs. a team with a losing record. De La Rosa is a perfect 13-0 (+14.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win. Take the Rockies Tuesday.
|09-10-13||Los Angeles Angels +130 v. Toronto Blue Jays||Top||12-6||Win||130||9 h 5 m||Show|
20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels +130
The Los Angeles Angeles are showing excellent value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays. Both teams are 67-76 on the season with little to play for, so you have to look at pitching as the deciding factor.
I like Jerome Williams in this one. Williams has gone 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts to finish the season strong. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts against Toronto as well.
Mark Buehrle has been decent at 11-7 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 29 starts this season for Toronto. However, Buehrle is 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.313 WHIP in 21 career starts against Los Angeles. In his lone start against the Angels this season, Buehrle allowed five earned runs and two homers over six innings on August 4.
Los Angeles is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season. The Angels are 17-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Los Angeles is 7-1 in Williams' last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Angels have won 12 of their last 17 games overall. Bet the Angels Tuesday.
|09-09-13||Colorado Rockies +116 v. San Francisco Giants||2-3||Loss||-100||12 h 5 m||Show|
15* Rockies/Giants NL West BAILOUT on Colorado +116
The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants have little to play for at this point in the season. With that being said, I'll gladly back the dog in this spot considering the Rockies have the edge on the mound in this one.
Jhoulys Chacin has been the ace of Colorado's rotation all season. The right-hander is 13-8 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 27 starts, and 5-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 11 road starts.
Tim Lincecum is 9-13 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.341 WHIP in 28 starts this year. In three starts against Colorado this season, Lincecum has gone 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA, allowing 16 earned runs over 18 innings.
Meanwhile, Chacin is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against San Francisco this season, pitching 15 innings without allowing a single earned run. Chacin is 9-1 (+7.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season.
San Francisco is 3-14 (-11.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. San Francisco is 6-14 in Lincecum's last 20 starts overall. Take the Rockies Monday.
|09-09-13||Houston Astros +150 v. Seattle Mariners||6-4||Win||150||12 h 60 m||Show|
15* Astros/Mariners AL West BAILOUT on Houston +150
The Houston Astros are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the Seattle Mariners. Essentially, neither of these teams have anything to play for. That's why I'll take my chances with Houston at this price considering the edge it had on the mound.
Jared Cosart is quietly having a tremendous rookie season for the Astros. The right-hander has gone 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA in six road starts.
Taijuan Walker has gone 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts this season for Seattle. He gave up four earned runs over 5 innings in his last start. Walker did beat Houston on August 30, but that gives the Astros an advantage having seen him just 10 days ago.
Seattle is 6-15 (-16.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Mariners are just 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Seattle is 1-7 in its last 8 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Astros Monday.
|09-09-13||Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins OVER 51.5||Top||33-27||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Redskins MNF Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 51.5
Chip Kelly is a big reason why I believe this game will go OVER the total. After holding back in the preseason, you can bet Kelly and company will unleash their new offense full throttle Monday, and Washington may not be ready for it because it really does not know what to expect. Look for the Eagles' offense to try and run a play every 12 seconds on average.
Washington was certainly vulnerable defensively last season. In fact, the Redskins finished 28th in the league in total defense, yielding 377.7 yards per game. It was also 22nd in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game allowed. Plus, Washington is missing some key pieces on defense once again as DE Jarvis Jenkins, LB Keenan Robinson, S Phillip Thomas, LB Rob Jackson, DE Adam Carriker and CB DeAngelo Hall are all expected to miss Monday
|09-08-13||NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 49.5||Top||31-36||Loss||-102||52 h 22 m||Show|
20* Giants/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 49.5
I look for a low-scoring game in this NFC East rivalry between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys tonight. Both tams will be improved defensively from a year ago, and that will be on display in Week 1 Sunday.
Both teams were crushed by the injury bug last year defensively. The Cowboys had six defensive starters miss time down the stretch, and DeMarcus Ware was playing on one arm. In the switch to the new 4-3, Tampa 2 scheme under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, I fully expect Dallas to give up fewer big plays and to be dominant in the red zone. This is one of the best linebackers corps and secondary's in the league, and then you have Ware wreaking havoc up front.
The Giants made some nice moves on defense by bringing in free agents in DT Cullen Jenkins, DT Mike Patterson, LB Aaron Curry, ILB Dan Connor and CB Aaron Ross. They also added rookies in NT Johnathan Hankins and DE Damontre Moore. It's clear that they wanted to get stronger up front, and they have done that. All these new additions will be nice compliments to the tandem of Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck.
New York is missing two starters along the offensive line in OT David Diehl and C David Baas. It will struggle to protect Eli Manning early and to open holes for David Wilson. Dallas has had offensive line problems every since Tony Romo took over as starter. It did little to address that need this offseason, so look for Romo to be scrambling for his life for four quarters in this one against a dominant New York D-Line.
The Giants are 25-9 to the UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992. The UNDER is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in September. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-08-13||Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 49||28-34||Loss||-104||48 h 44 m||Show|
15* Packers/49ers NFC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 49
The books have inflated this Week 1 total between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers due the shootout between these teams in the playoffs last year. Green Bay was not ready for Colin Kaepernick at all as the 49ers cruised to a 45-31 victory for 76 combined points. I'll gladly take advantage of this overreaction and back the UNDER in this contest Sunday.
Green Bay has had all offseason to prepare for Kaepernick after having just one week to do so before their playoff showdown last year. I look for the Packers to do a much better job of containing him this time around. Also helping matters is the fact that the 49ers have gotten weaker on offense with the loss of leading receiver Michael Crabtree, and do-it-all TE Delanie Walker.
San Francisco finished 2nd in the league in scoring defense (17.1 points/game) and 3rd in total defense (294.4 yards/game) last season. It has arguably gotten stronger on this side of the ball in the offseason with the additions of DT Glen Dorsey and CB Nnamdi Asomugha, as well as first-round pick Eric Reid, who is expected to start at free safety. The 49ers clearly have an answer defensively for Aaron Rodgers and company.
Green Bay knows it cannot drop Rodgers back and let him throw 50 times on a regular basis this season. That's why it used a first-round pick on Alabama RB Eddie Lacy. I look for the Packers to become a much more balanced team offensively, which will lead to eating up more clock. Green Bay has to try to establish its running game so that the 49ers can't just pin their ears back and go after Rodgers. This will also benefit the UNDER.
The Packers also had an underrated stop unit last year. In fact, they finished 11th in the league in total defense (336.8 yards/game) and 11th in scoring defense (21.0 points/game). This stop unit should be even better in 2013. C.J. Wilson, Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji compose one of the best 3-4 defensive lines in the NFL. Look for outside linebackers Nick Perry and Clay Matthews to take shots on Kaepernick every chance they get when the 49ers decide to run the reed option. This is also a tremendous secondary featuring CB's Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, as well as safety's M.D. Jennings and Morgan Burnett.
These teams are obviously very familiar with one another as this will be the 3rd time that they have squared off in the past year. I just believe that having all offseason to prepare for one another will make points much harder to come by. Last year's playoff total was set at 45 points, so the books have jacked it up to 49 because of that high-scoring affair. There's certainly some serious line value on this UNDER given these factors. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-08-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 45.5||Top||12-7||Win||100||45 h 0 m||Show|
25* NFL Season Opening TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/Panthers UNDER 45.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. I look for a defensive battle between what are two of the best stop units in the league.
Seattle ranked 4th in the league in total defense (306.2 yards/game) and 1st in scoring defense (15.3 points/game) last season. This is once again going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Quietly, Carolina improved on this side of the ball last season, finishing 10th in the league in total defense (333.1 yards/game). The stop unit has only gotten stronger in the offseason with the additions of rookie DT's Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, as well as the healthy return of LB Jon Beason.
These teams met last year in Carolina with the Seahawks prevailing by a final of 16-12 for 28 combined points. They held the Panthers to just 190 total yards, while being limited to 310 themselves. I look for a similar final score in the rematch in 2013 this Sunday.
Both offenses have their worries, too. Percy Harvin is out for most of the season for Seattle, which means it will once again have a mediocre offensive attack. Carolina has failed to address its need at receiver, and it is still relying on DeAngelo Williams at running back.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER On any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - terrible passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 64% or worse.
Seattle is 27-9 UNDER in road games in September games since 1992. Carolina is 22-10 UNDER in home games in the first month of the season since 1992. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-08-13||Miami Dolphins v. Cleveland Browns||23-10||Loss||-115||45 h 37 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cleveland Browns PK
I fully expect the Cleveland Browns to be one of the most improved teams in the league in 2013. Rob Chudzinski was an excellent hire as the former offensive coordinator in Carolina. He brings with him Norv Turner to be the new offensive coordinator, and Ray Horton as the defensive coordinator.
This is a young team with more talent than it gets credit for. The Browns went 3-1 in the preseason, which included a 27-19 home win over St. Louis, a 24-6 home victory over Detroit, and an 18-16 road triumph at Chicago. Brandon Weeden looked sharp at quarterback and should flourish under Turner, who has worked with the likes of Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith in Dallas, and Philip Rivers and LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego. Trent Richardson is primed for a breakout sophomore campaign, too.
While the offense should be improved, the defense is one of the most underrated units in the entire league. This is a young stop unit that is only going to get better this season. Former Raven LB Paul Kruger was an excellent addition this offseason. He'll team up with the underrated duo of D'Qwell Jackson and Jabaal Sheard at linebacker. Phil Taylor is a dominant nose tackle who doesn't get the respect he deserves. Also, CB Joe Haden and SS T.J. Ward are two of the best young defensive backs in the league.
While the Browns got better this offseason, I believe the Dolphins took a step back. They did a good job of trying to improve the offense by signing WR Mike Wallace and TE Dustin Keller, but Keller suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wallace is no more than a big threat receiver and will have games where he is barely even a factor this season. Also, the loss of Reggie Bush at running back certainly hurts. He was their best playmaker last season.
Bush wasn't the only loss. The Dolphins also part ways with WR Davone Bess, TE Anthony Fasano and OT Jake Long, who was the best lineman on the team. On defense, Miami loses DT Tony McDaniel, OLB Kevin Burnett and ILB Karlos Dansby. Dansby and Burnett finished No. 1 and No. 2 on the team in tackles last season, respectively.
This play falls into a system that is 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on favorites (CLEVELAND) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Miami is 5-15-3 ATS in its last 23 September games. Cleveland is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Miami. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|09-08-13||Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions -5||24-34||Win||101||45 h 32 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Lions -5
After making the playoffs in 2011, nothing went right for the Detroit Lions last season. They would finish 4-12 last season due to losing almost all of their close games. In fact, nine of the Lions
|09-07-13||Tampa Bay Rays -138 v. Seattle Mariners||2-6||Loss||-138||12 h 48 m||Show|
15* Rays/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -138
After losing 10 of their last 13 games overall, the Tampa Bay Rays now hold on to a slim 2-game lead over Baltimore and Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. It's safe to say they need this game against the lowly Seattle Mariners (64-77) pretty badly.
I like their chances of getting it with Chris Archer on the mound. The right-hander is having a tremendous year, going 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over 18 starts.
Archer will be up against rookie James Paxton, who makes his major league debut tonight. Paxton struggled at Triple-A Tacoma, going 8-11 with a 4.45 ERA in 28 games. He's clearly not ready for the big leagues just yet.
The Rays are 44-20 in their last 64 vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 10-4 in Archer's last 14 starts overall. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 home games. Seattle is 2-9 in its last 11 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Bet the Rays Saturday.
|09-07-13||Texas v. BYU +7||21-40||Win||100||53 h 57 m||Show|
15* Texas/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on BYU +7
The BYU Cougars have been one of the most underrated teams in the country for years. They have won 10 or more games in five of the past seven seasons under current head coach, Bronco Mendenhall. That includes a 10-3 campaign back in 2011 in which one of those wins came at Texas by a final of 17-16 as a 7-point underdog. The last time the Cougars hosted the Longhorns, they won 47-6.
With eight returning starters on offense, the Cougars are in good shape heading into 2013. They will be highly motivated for a victory after giving their Week 1 game away to Virginia in a 16-19 road loss. In fact, BYU outgained Virginia 362-223 for the game. Quarterback Taisom Hill threw for 175 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 42 yards and a score. Jamaal Williams, the top returning rusher, ran for 144 yards on 33 carries in the loss.
Many expected Texas to be improved defensively, but that may not be the case after a poor performance against New Mexico State, which went 1-11 last season. The Longhorns allowed 346 total yards to the Aggies, which is certainly a bad showing. NMSU quarterback Andrew McDonald had a very good game, completing 32 of 46 passes for 242 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Texas will not be able to get enough stops against BYU to win by more than a touchdown Saturday.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU)
|09-07-13||Notre Dame v. Michigan -3.5||30-41||Win||100||52 h 9 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Michigan ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Michigan -3.5
Many believe that the Wolverines will make a run at a Big Ten Title in 2013. Brady Hoke finally has his system in place and doesn
|09-07-13||UAB +35 v. LSU||17-56||Loss||-115||52 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UAB +35
Despite the 34-31 Week 1 loss to Troy as a 4.5-point underdog, I have no doubt that the Blazers are going to be much more competitive than they were a year ago. That
|09-07-13||Navy +13 v. Indiana||41-35||Win||100||50 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +13
This will be the season opener for Navy as it comes off a solid 8-5 season. With 13 starters back, there is reason to believe that the Midshipmen are going to have another big year. That's especially the case with the return of sophomore quarterback, Keenan Reynolds.
He became the first freshman since 1991 to start for Navy after taking over the job five games into the 2012 seasons. Reynolds flourished, completing 56.5 percent of his passes for 898 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 649 yards and 10 scores. Not once did Navy lose the turnover battle with Reynolds as the starter, so he's smart beyond his years and knows how to take care of the football.
I believe this line is an overreaction from Indiana winning 73-35 against Indiana State last week. Sure, the Hoosiers have an explosive offense, but giving up 35 points to the Sycamores shows that their defense has a long ways to go. I look for Reynolds and company to control the tempo of this game with their tremendous running game and to score at will on this Indiana defense all game long.
Navy beat Indiana 31-30 last season, and I look for a similar, hard-fought game in the rematch that comes right down to the wire. The Midshipmen rushed for 257 yards as a team in the win. Reynolds went 8 of 13 passing for 96 yards and a score, while also rushing for 66 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown. The defense held Indiana QB Cameron Coffman to 25 of 37 passing for 244 yards with two interceptions.
The Midshipmen are a perfect 7-0 against the spread as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. The Hoosiers are 5-25 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Bet Navy Saturday.
|09-07-13||Southern Mississippi +28 v. Nebraska||13-56||Loss||-105||50 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Southern Miss +28
The books have missed their mark badly on this game Saturday. I look for this contest to come right down to the wire, just as Nebraska's opener against Wyoming did. The Huskers only beat Wyoming 37-34 in their opener and they are one of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.
Nebraska will have a solid offense this year behind Taylor Martinez, but the defense is in shambles. Nebraska gave up 70 points to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship and 45 points to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl for a combined 115 points allowed in its final two games. The Huskers now part ways with each of their top five tacklers, and eight of their top ten tacklers overall from last year.
That inexperience and lack of talent showed in their 37-34 win over Wyoming last weekend. In fact, the Huskers allowed a ridiculous 602 total yards to the Cowboys last week and were outgained by 72 total yards for the game. Brett Smith threw for 383 yards and four touchdowns, and the Cowboys rushed for 219 yards while averaging 7.3 yards per carry.
Off an 0-12 season, Southern Miss comes into 2013 way underrated. This is a team that has a lot more talent than it gets credit for. They returned 13 starters this year, including nine on defense. This is a team that lost five games last year by 10 points or less and was much better than its record would indicate.
The Golden Eagles actually outgained Texas State 400-207 last week and obviously should have won, but gave the game away by committing six turnovers on a 15-22 defeat. Because of that loss, this line has been set much higher than it should be. Southern Miss lost four fumbles and won't be nearly as careless with the football this week against Nebraska. QB Allen Bridgford threw for 377 yards and a touchdown in the loss, and he's in line for a huge game against this Nebraska defense.
Plays on underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (SOUTHERN MISS) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This defense is much improved, and the offense will put up points at will against this soft Nebraska defense. Don't be surprised if this one goes right down to the wire. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|09-07-13||Duke v. Memphis +4.5||28-14||Loss||-110||49 h 42 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Memphis +4.5
Justin Fuente actually did a very good job of getting Memphis to four wins last year in his first season on the job. It was their most wins since 2008. After a 1-8 start, the Tigers would reel off three straight blowout victories over Tulane (37-23), UAB (46-9) and Southern Miss (42-24) to give them a ton of confidence heading into 2013. Now, they have had all offseason to prepare for Duke knowing that this would be their season opener in Week 2.
I really like this team considering it returns 16 starters and 46 lettermen. Eight starters return on offense, including quarterback Jacob Karam, who completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,895 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions a year ago. Also back is leading rusher Brandon Hayes (576 yards, 6 TD), who made the final seven starts at running back last season and played very well down the stretch. The defense returns eight starters, including senior FS Lonnie Ballentine (66 tackles, 3 INT) and junior DE Martin Ifedi (46 tackles, 7.5 sacks).
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS)
|09-07-13||Idaho +28 v. Wyoming||10-42||Loss||-103||48 h 11 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Public Overreaction Play on Idaho +28
This line is clearly an overreaction from the final scores of the games that both of these teams played last week. The public is all over Wyoming after a 37-34 loss at Nebraska. It is quick to fade Idaho after a 6-40 loss at North Texas. I'll take these extra points that public perception has created for us and back Idaho for an easy cash Saturday.
Wyoming's 37-34 loss at Nebraska says more about how overrated the Huskers are than how good the Cowboys are. Idaho's 6-40 loss at North Texas was more about how improved the Mean Green are than how bad the Vandals will be this season. This 28-point spread has clearly been inflated due to public perception.
Wyoming is in for a letdown here after coming so close to beating a ranked team last week. I look for the Cowboys to come out flat, which will allow the Vandals to keep the game close in the first half. That will lead to an easy cover as the Cowboys won't have enough firepower to win by four touchdowns in the second half.
Idaho showed some good signs offensively even in that loss to North Texas. It managed 369 total yards in the loss, which would usually equal anywhere in the neighborhood of 20-30 points. However, three lost fumbles really hurt the Vandals and put them behind the eight ball. Freshman quarterback Chad Chalich impressed in his debut, completing 19 of 27 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown. The ground game was effective as well, rushing for 139 yards on 36 carries.
Remember, Wyoming was just a 4-8 team last season with two of those victories coming in overtime. Its four wins came by 3, 5, 7 and 14 points. That 3-point win was a 40-37 (OT) triumph at Idaho. The Vandals actually outplayed the Cowboys in that contest, outgaining them 509-455 for the game. Once again, they gave the game away by losing three fumbles, just as they did against North Texas. So, Idaho will be out for revenge from that loss, too.
The Cowboys are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games following a S.U. loss. Wyoming is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games. While the Cowboys have won three straight over Idaho, those three contests were decided by a combined 20 points. Roll with Idaho Saturday.
|09-07-13||Buffalo +27.5 v. Baylor||13-70||Loss||-110||48 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +27.5
The Buffalo Bulls were one of the most underrated teams in the country entering the 2013 season. I was on them last week as a 33.5-point underdog at Ohio State, and they covered with ease in a 20-40 loss. Just as they were undervalued last week, I believe they are once against lacking respect from oddsmakers as a 27.5-point dog at Baylor.
Jeff Quinn has led the Bulls to three progressively better seasons over the last three years with a 2-10 finish in 2010, a 3-9 mark in 2011, and a 4-8 campaign in 2012. Now, with 16 starters and 54 lettermen returning in 2013, this is clearly Quinn's best team yet. I believe Buffalo will be bowl eligible by season's end, and it will compete with a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team Saturday in Baylor.
The Bears are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 69-3 victory over Wofford last week. This is a Baylor team that only returned 12 starters this year, losing three starters along the offensive line, quarterback Nick Florence (4,309 yards, 33 TD) and leading receiver Terrance Williams (97 receptions, 1,832 yards, 12 TD). After playing a cupcake in Wofford, the Bears won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from this underrated Buffalo squad.
BUffalo's offense returns nine starters and really played pretty well in scoring 20 points against a very good Ohio State team. Joe Licata was efficient, completing 19 of 32 passes for 185 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Branden Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards back in 2011, is back and healthy which is huge for this offense. Oliver managed 73 yards on the ground against Ohio State. Alex Neutz, who had 1,015 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns last year, finished with nine receptions for 98 yards against the Buckeyes.
Defensively, the Bulls have a ton of talent returning among their seven starters that are back. In fact, they return eight of their top 10 tacklers. Leading the way is LB Khalil Mack (94 tackles, 21 for loss), DE COlby Way (58 tackles, 7 sacks), CB Najja Johnson (43 tackles, 5 INT) and CB COrtney Lester (39 tackles, 4 INT). This is a team that won three of its final four games last season and heads into 2013 with a lot of confidence because of it. The Bulls will not be afraid of Baylor. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|09-07-13||Army v. Ball State -7.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||45 h 13 m||Show|
25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State -7.5
The Ball State Cardinals went 9-4 last season in head coach Pete Lembo
|09-07-13||Florida v. Miami (Florida) +3||Top||16-21||Win||100||44 h 12 m||Show|
20* Florida/Miami ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3
In terms of returning talent, the Hurricanes blow the Gators out of the water. Miami has 18 returning starters from a team that went 7-5 last season despite being banned from the postseason. This is clearly Golden
|09-06-13||Arizona Diamondbacks -118 v. San Francisco Giants||Top||0-3||Loss||-118||11 h 8 m||Show|
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -118
The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing solid value as only a small road favorite over the hapless San Francisco Giants. Arizona (71-68) still has a shot to get an NL Wild Card with a big finish, while San Francisco (62-78) is in last place in the NL West and done for.
It's important to even have a glimmer of hope at this point, because I like to back teams that at least have something to play for at this point in the year. Plus, with ace Pat Corbin on the mound, I believe we're getting the Diamondbacks at an excellent price.
Corbin is 13-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 27 starts this season. The left-hander lost to San Francisco his last time out, so he'll certainly want revenge just five days later.
San Francisco is 2-14 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season. Corbin is 11-0 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Arizona is 22-6 in Corbin's last 28 starts overall. Take the Diamondbacks Friday.
|09-06-13||Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals +100||8-12||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +100
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. After losing three of four to the Reds last series, and six of their last eight overall, the Cardinals will be highly motivated as they enter this series.
Each of St. Louis' last seven games have been on the road, so it will be glad to return home where it is 41-25 on the season. The Cardinals also trail the Pirates by 1.5 games for first place in the NL Central, so that adds even more fuel to the fire tonight.
Joe Kelly has been one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 11 starts this season, and 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in all action in 2013. Plus, Kelly is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.75 ERA in two starts against Pittsburgh this season, allowing just one earned run over 12 innings.
A.J. Burnett is having a solid season for the Pirates as well, but he has been at his worst on the road. Burnett is 3-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 13 road starts this year. Burnett is 1-1 with a huge 13.15 ERA in his last three starts at St. Louis, allowing 19 earned runs over 13 innings.
The Cardinals are 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts overall. St. Louis is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts vs. NL Central opponents. St. Louis is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a home underdog. The Pirates are 1-6 in Burnett's last 7 road starts. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing St. Louis. Roll with the Cardinals Friday.
|09-06-13||Central Florida v. Florida International UNDER 53.5||38-0||Win||100||30 h 45 m||Show|
15* UCF/FIU CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 53.5
I'm backing the UNDER in this contest between the UCF Knights and the Florida International Panthers this Friday. I just don't believe Florida International is going to be able to score after what we've seen in the opener for both teams.
Central Florida played a great game defensively in a 38-7 win over Akron. This was a Zips team that has a very underrated offense, and the Knights managed to hold them to just 7 points and 250 total yards. It would be hard seeing the Panthers putting up more than a touchdown in this one after their performance against Maryland.
Florida International was held to just 10 points and 171 total yards in its 10-43 loss to the Terrapins last weekend. This is an FIU offense that returns a mere four starters, and its one that replaced all five starters along the offensive line. Look for UCF defenders to be in the FIU backfield and disrupting things all game long.
Sure, UCF is going to get its points, but it won't be enough to surpass this 53-point total. These teams have squared off each of the last two years with UCF winning 33-20 for 53 combined points last season, and FIU winning 17-10 in 2011 in a game that only saw 27 combined points. I look for something in between in this one in the neighborhood of a 35-7 victory for UCF and 42 combined points.
UCF is 22-7 to the UNDER in its last 29 September games. The Knights are 26-11 to the UNDER In their last 37 non-conference games. FIU is 7-0 to the UNDER as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992. FIU is 11-1 UNDER in home games off a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. The Panthers are 7-0 UNDER in home games after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game since 1992. These last three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-05-13||Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos OVER 48||Top||27-49||Win||100||33 h 22 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Broncos 2013 NFL Season Opener on OVER 48
I look for an absolute shootout between the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens in the 2013 NFL season opener. Both teams should pick up right where they left off last season offensively, which each should also take a step back defensively for a number of reasons.
The Broncos have only gotten more potent offensively this offseason. That
|09-05-13||Florida Atlantic +20.5 v. East Carolina||Top||13-31||Win||100||32 h 58 m||Show|
20* FAU/East Carolina CFB Thursday No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +20.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls have clearly been one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. After their cover as a 31-point underdog at Miami on Friday, the Owls are now 9-2 (82%) against the spread in their last 11 games overall. Carl Pelini
|09-05-13||Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -105||9-8||Loss||-105||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Yankees AL East ANNIHILATOR on New York -105
The New York Yankees (75-64) have won three straight and five of their last six to pull within 2.5 games of Tampa Bay for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They need this game more than the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, and I believe they get it tonight.
Ivan Nova is in the midst of the best season of his career to this point. The right-hander has gone 8-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 15 starts and three relief appearances. Nova is 6-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 10 home starts.
Jake Peavy is 11-5 with a 3.91 ERA this season in his time between Chicago and Boston. He has been at his worst on the road, going 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 11 starts away from home in 2013.
Peavy has never beaten New York, going 0-4 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees. Nova has gone 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts against Boston. New York is 20-7 in Nova's last 27 starts as a home favorite.
The Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 6-0 in Nova's last 6 starts overall. The Red Sox are 24-54 in their last 78 games as an underdog. Roll with the Yankees Thursday.
|09-04-13||Pittsburgh Pirates -148 v. Milwaukee Brewers||Top||3-9||Loss||-148||10 h 59 m||Show|
20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -148
The Pittsburgh Pirates collapsed in the second half each of the last two seasons. They have said enough is enough in 2013 as they continue to surge forward and lead the NL Central with an 81-57 record on the season.
Milwaukee (59-79) has lost five straight and appears to have packed it in. Things won't be much easier for the Brewers tonight as Wily Peralta gets the ball. The right-hander is 8-14 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 28 starts, 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA in his last three starts.
Also making matters more difficult on Milwaukee is the fact that it will be up against one of the best starters in baseball. Francisco Liriano is 15-6 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 21 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts. Liriano is 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA in nine career starts against Milwaukee, including 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Brewers in 2013.
Liriano is 10-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. Milwaukee is 0-4 in Peralta's last 4 starts overall. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Pittsburgh tonight. Bet the Pirates Wednesday.
|09-04-13||St. Louis Cardinals +110 v. Cincinnati Reds||5-4||Win||110||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +110
After losing the first two games of this series, and five of their last six overall, the St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Cincinnati. I believe they get it with the edge they have on the mound in this one.
Rookie Shelby Miller is having a tremendous season at 12-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 26 starts. Miller is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati.
Bronson Arroyo has been solid at 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA, but he has posted a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Arroyo is 8-16 with a 4.65 ERA in 35 career starts against St. Louis. In his last start against the Cardinals on August 2, Arroyo allowed seven earned runs over 3 2/3 innings of a 3-13 loss. The Reds are 0-5 in Arroyo's last 5 starts vs. Cardinals.
The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. St. Louis is 29-13 in its last 42 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Cardinals are 6-2 in Miller's last 8 starts as an underdog. The Reds are 1-8 in Arroyo's last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cincinnati is 5-12 in Arroyo's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Cardinals Tuesday.
|09-04-13||San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres UNDER 7||13-5||Loss||-100||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Padres UNDER 7
I look for an absolute pitcher's duel tonight between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres. Both teams are averaging a mere 3.8 runs/game on the season and I look for both starting pitchers to dominate the opposition.
Tim Lincecum is 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 25 career starts against San Diego. In three starts against the Padres in 2013, Lincecum has gone 2-1 with a miniscule 0.79 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 22 2/3 innings of work.
San Diego's Eric Stults is 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. In his last two starts against the Giants this year, Stults has gone 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA while allowing only three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings.
The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Giants last 9 games overall. The UNDER is 21-8-1 in Giants last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 12-3 in Padres last 15 games following a win. The UNDER is 10-1 in Stults' last 11 starts during game 3 of a series. The UNDER is 11-5 in Stults' last 16 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|09-03-13||Pittsburgh Pirates -115 v. Milwaukee Brewers||Top||4-3||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -115
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing tremendous value tonight as a small road favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers. While Pittsburgh (80-57) is in a three-way battle for the NL Central Title, the Milwaukee Brewers (59-78) are done for.
Milwaukee appears to have packed it in, losers of four straight coming in. Now, they send the overrated Yovani Gallardo to the mound Tuesday. Gallardo has gone 10-9 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 5-5 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 13 home starts.
Gerrit Cole has been solid in his rookie season for Pittsburgh, going 6-7 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 14 starts. Cole has been at his best on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in four starts away from home.
Pittsburgh is 49-26 (+20.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.
|09-03-13||Miami Marlins +140 v. Chicago Cubs||6-2||Win||140||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +140
The Chicago Cubs (58-79) have no business being this heavily favored against anyone in the league. That's especially the case considering they don't even have the edge on the mound tonight against the Miami Marlins.
Tom Koehler is 3-9 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 18 starts and six relief appearances in 2013 for Miami. He has been slightly better than Chicago's Edwin Jackson, who is 7-14 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 26 starts this year.
The Marlins have simply owned Jackson in the past. In fact, Jackson is 1-6 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.640 WHIP in eight career starts against Miami. He should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
Chicago is 12-32 (-20.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Jackson is 4-10 (-8.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 5-1 in Koehler's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 0-5 in Jackson's last 5 starts. Chicago is 2-9 in its last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Marlins Tuesday.
|09-03-13||St. Louis Cardinals +140 v. Cincinnati Reds||0-1||Loss||-100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on St. Louis Cardinals +140
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday. After dropping four of their last five overall, the Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory tonight.
St. Louis will bounce back behind highly touted rookie Michael Wacha (2-0, 3.78), who will be recalled for the third time after briefly getting sent down to Double-A. Wacha has struck out 37 batters over 33 1/3 innings in the big leagues this season.
Homer Bailey is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander is 9-10 with a 3.55 ERA in 27 starts this year. Bailey is 4-9 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in 16 career starts against St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 46-22 in their last 68 games following a loss. The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Cincinnati is 2-7 in Bailey's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.
|09-03-13||Chicago White Sox v. New York Yankees -139||4-6||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -139
The New York Yankees (73-64) trail the Tampa Bay Rays by just 2.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They continue to surge forward despite all of the injuries they have suffered this season.
With Hiroki Kuroda on the mound tonight, I'll gladly lay the juice and back them against the Chicago White Sox. The right-hander has gone 11-10 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 27 starts this season.
Kuroda has been at his best at home, going 7-2 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 11 starts in New York. Kuroda has also owned the White Sox in the past, going 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in four career starts against them. He is 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA in two career home starts against Chicago.
The White Sox are 3-19 (-19.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 run or less this season. New York is 14-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season. The White Sox are 12-39 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 8-0 in Kuroda's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 13-3 in its last 16 home games. Take the Yankees Tuesday.
|09-02-13||Florida State -10 v. Pittsburgh||Top||41-13||Win||100||99 h 55 m||Show|
20* FSU/Pitt ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -10
The Seminoles were actually very close to playing for a national title en route to a 12-2 campaign in 2012. In their two losses to NC State and Florida, they actually led in the second half of both of those contests. Jimbo Fisher has done an excellent job in his first three seasons here, getting FSU to an ACC Title and likely in contention for a national title for years to come. He can simply recruit with the best head coaches in the country.
Florida State only returns 11 starters, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the FBS. Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston could be the next Johnny Manziel at quarterback. He completed 13 of 15 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns in the spring game. He
|09-02-13||Pittsburgh Pirates -125 v. Milwaukee Brewers||5-2||Win||100||4 h 44 m||Show|
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -125
The Pittsburgh Pirates (79-57) are showing tremendous value as a small road favorite over the lowly Milwaukee Brewers (59-77) Monday. Pittsburgh sits tied atop the NL Central with St. Louis and has a lot more to play for.
Charlie Morton has been a godsend for the Pirates this season, going 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA over 14 starts. Morton has really been dominant in his last three outings, going 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA while allowing just three earned runs over 21 1/3 innings.
In his last two starts against Milwaukee, Morton has not allowed a single earned run over 8 2/3 innings for a 0.00 ERA. He just faced the Brewers in his last start on August 28, going 6 2/3 innings of a 7-1 Pittsburgh victory.
The Pirates are 30-12 in their last 42 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 6-0 in Morton's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. Roll with the Pirates Monday.
|09-02-13||Chicago White Sox v. New York Yankees -145||1-9||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York Yankees -145
The New York Yankees (72-64) trail the Tampa Bay Rays by just 3.5 game for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They'll be up against the Chicago White Sox (56-79) Monday, who have the second-worst record in the AL.
Phil Hughes has owned Chicago in the past, and I look for that to continue today. Hughes is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.853 WHIP in six career starts against Chicago, allowing a mere five earned runs over 34 innings of work.
Jose Quintana is having a solid season at 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA for the White Sox. However, he really struggled in his lone career start at New York, giving up six earned runs and 11 base runners over six innings. Quintana has posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.
Hughes is 23-4 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. His teams are winning 7.1 to 4.1 in this spot, or by an average of 3.0 runs/game. The White Sox are 13-41 in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Take New York Monday.
|09-01-13||San Diego Padres +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||1-2||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +1.5 (-104)
The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep to the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday after losing the first two games of this series. I like their chances of doing so today, but I'll side with them on the run line for a little extra insurance.
There's a great chance this game is decided by exactly one run either way with the quality of these two starting pitchers. Tyson Ross is 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts this season, while Zach Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 22 starts.
Ross has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in six starts away from home. Ross has posted a 1.93 ERA in his one career start against Los Angeles, which resulted in a 7-2 San Diego victory earlier this season.
This play falls into a system that is 75-46 (62%, +31.4 Units) since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (SAN DIEGO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Take the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.
|09-01-13||Ohio +21 v. Louisville||Top||7-49||Loss||-110||70 h 25 m||Show|
20* Ohio/Louisville ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Ohio +21
The Ohio Bobcats enter the 2013 season way undervalued. They quietly went 9-4 last year despite having huge injury problems down the stretch. They even had 10 starters out in a 6-28 closing loss to Kent State. Now healthy, and with 12 starters back, the Bobcats will be an improved team in 2013.
I love the offense with seven returning starters from a unit that put up 31.7 points and 445 total yards per game last year. Remember, this is the same Ohio team that went into Penn State and won 24-14 in its opener as a 6-point dog. QB Tyler Tettleton, who is already the school's career passing leader (6,274 yards), returns. Also back is running back Beu Blankenship, who rushed for 1,604 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Tettleton has his top target back in receiver Donte Foster (59 receptions, 659 yards, 8 TD) as well.
Louisville enters 2013 way overvalued due to its 11-2 record last season that concluded with a 33-23 victory in the Sugar Bowl against an overrated Florida team. I was even on the Cardinals at +14 in that contest, but I'm fading them to start 2013. Louisville was a very lucky team last year as it won won a whopping eight games by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or fewer. There's no question this is a quality team with 16 returning starters, but it is not 21 points better than Ohio at home.
The Bobcats have played a BCS team on the road each of the last five years, including the AP #2 and #3 teams at the time. While they are 0-5, they have only been outgained 373-332 and outscored 31-19 on average in those contests. Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Louisville is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 home games. Bet Ohio Sunday.
|09-01-13||Kansas City Royals -131 v. Toronto Blue Jays||5-0||Win||100||6 h 9 m||Show|
15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -131
After losing the first two games of this series to Toronto (62-74), the Kansas City Royals (69-66) will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 Sunday. I like their chances given the edge they have on the mound in this one.
James Shields has pitched like the ace that he is all season, going 9-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 28 starts. That includes a 7-3 mark with a 2.26 ERA in 15 road starts, and a 2-0 record with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts overall.
J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters in baseball. Toronto's left-hander is 3-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 starts this season. While Shields has posted a 3.22 ERA in 22 career starts against the Blue Jays, Happ sports a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against the Royals.
The Royals are 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts as a road favorite. Kansas City is 10-1 in its last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Happs last 4 home starts. Take this combined 20-1 system backing Kansas City straight to the bank today. Roll with the Royals Sunday.
|08-31-13||Boise State v. Washington Huskies -3.5||6-38||Win||100||53 h 13 m||Show|
15* Boise State/Washington Bowl Rematch BAILOUT on Washington -3.5
Off three straight seven-win seasons, Steve Sarkisian and company are ready to take that next step forward in 2013. This will easily be his best team yet as 18 starters and 58 lettermen return from a year ago. Folks in Seattle have to be very optimistic about this season despite drawing a brutal schedule overall, including Boise State in the opener.
All of these returning starters will be highly motivated to avenge their 26-28 Las Vegas Bowl loss to the Broncos. The offense is loaded with 10 returning starters. Senior QB Keith Price threw for 2,726 yards with 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last year. Leading rusher Bishop Sankey (1,439 yards, 16 TD) is back. All of Price
|08-31-13||San Diego Padres +150 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||1-2||Loss||-100||18 h 10 m||Show|
15* Padres/Dodgers NL West BAILOUT on San Diego +150
The San Diego Padres are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday. Being a divisional game, the Padres will be plenty motivated for the win. With the edge they have on the mound, I like their chances of pulling off the upset against the NL West leaders tonight.
Andrew Cashner is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.213 WHIP on the season. He has posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts. In his lone career start against the Dodgers on 6/23/2013, Cashner allowed just one earned run and six base runners over 8 innings for a 1.13 ERA and 0.750 WHIP.
Chris Capuano is the worst starter on Los Angeles' roster and the most beatable. The left-hander has gone 4-7 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 18 starts and two relief appearances. Capuano is 2-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 10 home starts. In his lone home start against San Diego this season on 4/16/2013, Capuano gave up five earned runs over 2 innings of a 2-9 loss.
The Dodgers are only 24-27 (-12.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The Padres are 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. San Diego is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Padres are 14-6 in their last 20 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers are 2-6 in Capuano's last 8 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take the Padres Saturday.
|08-31-13||LSU v. TCU +4.5||37-27||Loss||-110||52 h 13 m||Show|
15* LSU/TCU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on TCU +4.5
The TCU Horned Frogs had several things go wrong that contributed to to a poor first season (7-6) in the Big 12 last year. First, they were returning just nine starters last year and were an inexperienced team. Then, quarterback Casey Pachall got suspended and was out for the season after making just four starts. Despite their 4-5 record in the Big 12 last year, they still managed to outgain conference opponents by an average of 33.1 yards per game.
Now, with 16 returning starters, TCU has a great chance to get back to winning 10-plus games in 2013 like it has become accustomed to doing. Pachall will split time with Trevone Boykin, who gained valuable experience last year at quarterback. The defense returns nine starters from the best stop unit in the Big 12 a year ago. TCU only allowed 22.6 points and 324 total yards per game last season despite having just four returning starters. With nine back, this will be one of the best stop units in the country.
TCU has won nine of its last 13 against ranked opponents, and it is a solid 13-4 since 2005 against non-conference BCS schools. Gary Patterson is one of the most underrated head coaches in the entire country. He has past wins over the likes of Wisconsin, Boise State, Oregon State, Clemson, Stanford, BYU and Utah on his list of big victories in recent years.
I look for LSU to take a step back in 2013. That
|08-31-13||Alabama v. Virginia Tech +21.5||35-10||Loss||-110||49 h 43 m||Show|
15* Alabama/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +21.5
Off a down 7-6 season in 2012, the Virginia Tech Hokies enter the 2013 campaign undervalued. Remember, the Hokies had won at least 10 games for eight consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2011. You can
|08-31-13||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-107||47 h 45 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3
The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a season in which they would like to forget. They failed to win six games for the first time since 2000, finishing 4-8. However, this team was much better than its record would indicate, losing a ridiculous six games by 6 points or less. In fact, five of its eight losses came by 3 points or fewer. It's safe to say that these players will be highly motivated heading into 2013.
Iowa returns 13 starters from last year's squad. While it will be breaking in a new quarterback, it's impossible to get much worse play than what it received from James Vandernberg, who threw just seven touchdown passes last year. Mark Weisman (815 yards, 8 TD, 5.1/carry) is back to carry the load offensively. Also back are three starters along the offensive line, as well as leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley and TE CJ Fiedorowicz, who is one of the top tight ends in the country.
Northern Illinois is coming off a 12-2 season last year, which clearly has it overvalued. It has lost head coach Dave Doeren, who has bolted for NC State this offseason. That's a huge blow to the program as Doeren led the Huskies to back-to-back MAC Titles. New head coach Rod Carey will be working with only 12 returning starters, though talented QB Jordan Lynch is back. I look for the Huskies to take a huge step back defensively with only four starters back on that side of the ball. They lose seven of their top 10 tacklers, including Tyrone Clark (86 tackles, 10 for loss, 7 passes defended), Alan Baxter (60 tackles, 9.5 sacks), Rashaan Melvin (55 tackles, 18 passes defended) and Sean Progar (59 tackles, 8.5 sacks).
Iowa will have one of the most improved defenses in the country with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 22.9 points per game. To stop Lynch, a defense must have good linebackers who can pursue the quarterback and make tackles. The Hawkeyes have just that as each of their top three tacklers from last season are back in senior WLB Anthony Hitchens (124 tackles, 5.5 for loss), senior MLB James Morris (113 tackles, 9 for loss) and senior OLB Christian Kirksey (95 tackles, 2 INT).
Iowa is 8-0 all-time versus Northern Illinois with an average margin of victory of 27 points per game. The Hawkeyes have won 12 straight season openers. This play falls into a system that is 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in non-conference games. Take Iowa Saturday.
|08-31-13||Rice +27 v. Texas A&M||31-52||Win||100||44 h 14 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +27
The Rice Owls will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013 after a 7-6 campaign a year ago. I believe they are the best team in Conference USA with 19 starters and 54 lettermen coming back. David Bailiff will have his best team yet, and one that is capable of giving Texas A&M a run for its money. This is a Rice team that has pulled off two upsets (Purdue, Kansas) against BCS opponents over the past two years.
The offense is loaded with nine starters back from a unit that put up 31.8 points and 427 total yards per game. Leading the way will be senior QB Taylor McHargue, who threw for 2,209 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions last year, while also rushing for 667 yards and 11 scores. The defense welcomes back a whopping 10 starters from a unit that will be much-improved after yielding 30.0 points per game last year. In fact, each of the top eight tacklers are back on the stop unit.
Texas A&M starting QB Johnny Manziel, starting CB Deshazor Everett, and starting FS Floyd Raven will all be suspended for the first half of Saturday
|08-31-13||Buffalo +35 v. Ohio State||Top||20-40||Win||100||43 h 14 m||Show|
25* College Football Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo +35
I fully expect the Buffalo Bulls to be one of the most improved teams in the country under fourth-year head coach, Jeff Quinn. They went just 4-8 last season, but only one of their eight losses came by more than 22 points. That 22-point setback came in their opener at then-No. 6 Georgia as a 38-point underdog. Just as they hung tough against the Bulldogs, they will do so in their opener against Ohio State in 2013.
That's especially likely considering that Buffalo returns 16 starters and 54 lettermen from last year's squad. This is clearly Quinn's best team in his four years here. The offense boasts nine returning starters, including senior RB Branden Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards in 2011 before being held to 821 yards in 2012 while playing in only seven games due to injury. Also back is senior receiver Alex Neutz, who caught 65 balls for 1,015 yards and 11 touchdowns last year.
The defense held its own last season, allowing 28.5 points and 364 total yards per game. With seven starters back, including eight of the top 10 tacklers, this stop unit is going to be even better in 2013. Leading the way is two-time, first-team All-MAC LB Khalil Mack (94 tackles, 21 for loss), senior LB Lee Skinner (89 tackles, 8.5 for loss), second-team All-MAC DE Colby Way (58 tackles, 7 sacks) and second-team All-MAC CB Najja Johnson (43 tackles, 5 INT). This is one of the most underrated stop units in the country.
Ohio State enters 2013 as one of the most overrated teams in the FBS. It is getting way too much respect for its perfect 12-0 regular season last year. There was a ton of luck involved to get to those 12 wins. In fact, the Buckeyes won a ridiculous six games by 7 points or less, including two overtime triumphs. The offense will be solid with nine returning starters, but the defense is in a world of hurt with only four starters coming back. Ohio State loses eight of its top 12 tacklers. Plus, it will be without RB Carlos Hyde (suspension) for the opener, who rushed for 970 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. The Bulls will hang tough and get us an easy cover in this one. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|08-31-13||Purdue +10.5 v. Cincinnati||7-42||Loss||-106||43 h 14 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Purdue +10.5
The Purdue Boilermakers have new life heading into 2013 with a new head coach. Despite making a bowl game the past two seasons, Danny Hope has been fired. I really like the hiring of Darrell Hazell, who led Kent State to a school-record 11 wins last season. This guy is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.
There is still plenty of talent left in the cupboard for Hazell considering 13 starters and 48 lettermen return. While the offense only has five starters back, it does have the experienced Rob Henry starting at quarterback. The defense can carry the load early as eight starters and six of the top seven tacklers are back on this side of the ball. That includes junior SS Landon Feichter (80 tackles, 4 INT), senior LB Will Lucas (66 tackles, 6.5 for loss), sophomore CB Frankie Williams (45 tackles, 11 passes defended) and junior DE Ryan Russell (37 tackles, 8.5 for loss).
The Cincinnati Bearcats also suffer some huge losses offensively, so it
|08-30-13||Florida Atlantic +32 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||6-34||Win||100||46 h 8 m||Show|
20* FAU/Miami ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Florida Atlantic +32
Carl Pelini did a tremendous job in his first year at Florida Atlantic in 2012. This team was much more competitive than its 3-9 record would indicate. Seven of Florida Atlantic
|08-30-13||Western Michigan +28 v. Michigan State||13-26||Win||100||46 h 8 m||Show|
15* WMU/Michigan State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Michigan +28
The Spartans simply lack the explosiveness to cover such a big number. This is an offense that put up just 20.0 points per game last season. Now, Michigan State loses its most productive player in running back Le
|08-30-13||Baltimore Orioles +125 v. New York Yankees||5-8||Loss||-100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +125
The Baltimore Orioles (71-61) are looking to make a push at the end of the season to get into a Wild Card spot in the American League. So are the Yankees, but Baltimore is better equipped to do it.
I'll side with the Orioles for that reason and because they have the edge on the mound tonight. Miguel Gonzalez is 8-6 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in all starts this season, including 3-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 12 road starts. The right-hander is also 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in six career starts against New York.
C.C. Sabathia is having a horrible year, going 11-11 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.351 WHIP In 27 starts, including 2-1 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in his last three. The left-hander has struggled in his last two starts against Baltimore this season, going 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA while allowing eight earned runs over 13 1/3 innings.
The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. New York is 2-7 in Sabathia's last 9 starts overall. The Yankees are 1-7 in Sabathias last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Roll with the Orioles Friday.
|08-29-13||Ole Miss -3 v. Vanderbilt||Top||39-35||Win||100||74 h 30 m||Show|
20* Ole Miss/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Ole Miss -3
The Rebels are the most experienced team in the SEC with 19 returning starters from last year
|08-29-13||Baltimore Orioles +142 v. Boston Red Sox||3-2||Win||142||9 h 6 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +142
After losing the first two games of this series to Boston, the Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep Thursday. They also need to keep up in the AL Wild Card race, so they cannot afford to lose many more games from here on out.
With the edge the Orioles have on the mound tonight, they should not be a dog in this contest. Chris Tillman is 14-4 with a 3.66 ERA in 26 starts this season. He has been at his best away from home, going 7-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts in 2013.
Jon Lester is 12-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.306 WHIP In 27 starts this year for Boston. Tillman is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in eight career starts against the Red Sox. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts vs. Boston, pitching 13 shutout innings in the process.
Tillman is 7-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Tillman is 6-0 (+6.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. Take this combined 13-0 system backing Tillman and Baltimore straight to the bank tonight. Take the Orioles Thursday.
|08-29-13||UNLV +14 v. Minnesota||23-51||Loss||-115||23 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday Night Line Mistake on UNLV +14
Sure, the Rebels have only won six games over the past three years, but there
|08-29-13||Akron +22.5 v. Central Florida||7-38||Loss||-106||23 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +22.5
Terry Bowden had very little to work in his first season at Akron last year as the Zips returned only 10 starters. This team was much better than its 1-11 record would indicate, only getting outscored by an average of 9.6 points per game on the year. Now, with 14 starters and 45 lettermen returning, I look for this team to be much-improved in 2013.
The offense welcomes back seven starters, including leading rusher Jawon Chisholm (953 yards, 5 TD). Every receiver returns other than Marquelo Powell, and Kyle Pohl is ready to step in at quarterback after completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 366 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions a year ago. The defense has seven starters and five of its top seven tacklers back.
Only two of Akron
|08-29-13||North Carolina +13 v. South Carolina||10-27||Loss||-115||22 h 7 m||Show|
15* UNC/South Carolina ESPN Season Opener on North Carolina +13
Larry Fedora did a tremendous job last season in keeping his team focused and getting the Tar Heels to eight wins despite being ineligible for the postseason. Now, eligible for postseason play, UNC is going to be very hungry heading into 2013. It returns 13 starters in all from a team that outscored opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game on average a year ago.
While the offense loses all-purpose back Giovani Bernard to the NFL, it still possesses one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Bryn Renner, who completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,356 yards with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year. Renner is back to lead an offense that put up 40.6 points and 486 total yards per game last season.
UNC also possesses first-team All-ACC LT James Hurst, a senior who will be charged with handling South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney for most of the game. I believe the Tar Heels will be able to move the ball and score points against an overrated South Carolina defense in this one. While the Gamecocks bring back Clowney, the fact of the matter is that they lose defensive six starters, including each of their top four tacklers from a year ago. South Carolina will be breaking in three new linebackers, two new starters along the defensive line, and must replace FS DJ Swearinger, who was taken in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans.
With their biggest game of the season on deck against SEC East rival Georgia, the Gamecocks could be overlooking North Carolina enough to fail to cover this double-digit spread. It
|08-28-13||Kansas City Royals -110 v. Minnesota Twins||8-1||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -110
The Kansas City Royals (67-64) still believe they can make the playoffs. They have won three in a row to get to within seven games of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They go up against a Minnesota team that is just 57-73 on the season tonight.
"We haven't given up on making the playoffs. We want Duffy on our playoff roster," manager Ned Yost told the team's official website. "And if we do make the playoffs, we're probably going to go with three starters and Wade is going to be in the bullpen at that time."
Danny Duffy has been dominant in two starts this season, going 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. His last start came against Detroit on August 16 as he pitched six shutout innings of a 2-1 victory over the potent Tigers.
Andrew Albers has struggled of late for Minnesota, going 0-1 with a 7.10 ERA in his last two starts. He has allowed 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. He is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one.
The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Kansas City is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals are 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 road starts. Kansas City is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Royals. Roll with Kansas City Wednesday.
|08-28-13||Baltimore Orioles +170 v. Boston Red Sox||3-4||Loss||-100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* Orioles/Red Sox ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Baltimore +170
The Baltimore Orioles are showing tremendous value Wednesday night as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles trail Oakland by 3.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, making this a huge game for them.
Bud Norris has pitched admirably this season, going 9-9 with a 4.17 ERA in 26 starts. John Lackey is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. Lackey is 1-1 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore, allowing 15 earned runs over 17 2/3 innings.
Baltimore is 17-5 (+12.5 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. The Orioles are 32-12 in their last 44 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 starts overall. The Orioles are 54-26 in their last 80 games following a loss. Take Baltimore Wednesday.
|08-28-13||New York Yankees -136 v. Toronto Blue Jays||Top||2-7||Loss||-136||8 h 21 m||Show|
20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -136
Trailing Oakland by just 4.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, the New York Yankees (70-62) have a lot to play for the rest of the way. The last-place Toronto Blue Jays (59-74) do not.
With the edge the Yankees have on the mound tonight, I'll side with them at an excellent price. Hiroki Kuroda is 11-9 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 26 starts this season. Kuroda is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto.
Todd Redmond is 1-1 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in eight starts this year for the Blue Jays. The right-hander is coming off a start at Houston in which he allowed eight runs, seven earned, and 11 base runners over 3 1/3 innings of a 4-12 loss.
New York is 16-3 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. New York is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a favorite. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a 32-3 system backing the Yankees. Bet New York Wednesday.
|08-27-13||Baltimore Orioles +125 v. Boston Red Sox||2-13||Loss||-100||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* Orioles/Red Sox AL East ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +125
The Baltimore Orioles (70-59) trail the Boston Red Sox by 5.5 games for the AL East lead. They need this game and series more, and due to their edge on the mound, I'll side with them at an excellent price tonight.
Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander has gone 7-6 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Even more impressive is the fact that Chen is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against Boston.
Felix Doubront is 9-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 23 starts and one relief appearance for Boston this year. The right-hander has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Baltimore is 6-0 in Chen's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. These two trends combine for an 11-0 system backing the Orioles. Plus, Baltimore is 29-11 in its last 40 games following an off day, while Boston is 1-6 in its last 7 games following a win. Take the Orioles Tuesday.
|08-27-13||Los Angeles Angels +125 v. Tampa Bay Rays||6-5||Win||125||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +125
The Los Angeles Angels have not quit on their season. They are coming off a three-game sweep at Seattle, and now I look for them to give Tampa Bay problems in Game 1 of this series tonight.
That's especially the case considering the edge the Angels have on the mound. C.J. Wilson is 13-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts for the Angels, while Roberto Hernandez is 6-13 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.332 WHIP In 23 starts for Tampa Bay.
Wilson has been very dominant of late, going 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. The same cannot be said for Hernandez, who is 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.813 WHIP in his last three outings.
Los Angeles is 10-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 2-14 (-15.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 20-6 in their last 26 games following an off day. Los Angeles is 6-1 in Wilson's last 7 road starts. Roll with the Angels Tuesday.
|08-27-13||New York Yankees -114 v. Toronto Blue Jays||Top||7-1||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -114
The New York Yankees (69-62) still have a shot to earn a Wild Card spot in the American League. They'll fight until the finish line to get one. Meanwhile, Toronto (59-73) is in last place in the AL East with nothing to play for.
I'll gladly back the Yankees tonight due to the edge they have on the mound. Andy Pettite is 5-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and 2-0 with a miniscule 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. Those three have come against Toronto, Boston and Detroit, so he has gotten better as the season has gone on.
J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters in the majors. The left-hander has gone 3-3 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Happ has posted a 5.46 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees as well.
The Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. New York is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a favorite. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing New York. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.
|08-26-13||Houston Astros +142 v. Chicago White Sox||Top||10-8||Win||142||9 h 58 m||Show|
20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros +142
After winning eight of their last nine games overall, the Chicago White Sox (54-75) are being way overvalued tonight against the Houston Astros. Chicago still has nothing to play for, and off a series win over Texas, it is in for a big letdown tonight in Game 1 of this series against Houston.
I really like getting the Astros at this price with the underrated Brett Oberholtzer on the mound. The left-hander has gone 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in four starts this season. That's impressive when you consider those four starts came against the Angels, Rangers, Red Sox & Orioles.
Andre Rienzo is having a solid season for Chicago at 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. However, he pitched poorly in his lone home start, giving up four earned runs, two homers and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings against the Twins on August 10.
The White Sox are 3-19 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 7-19 in its last 26 games as a favorite. Bet the Astros Monday.
|08-26-13||Oakland A's +165 v. Detroit Tigers||8-6||Win||165||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Oakland A's +165
After losing four of their last five, the Oakland A's (72-57) have dropped 2.5 games behind Texas for first place in the AL West. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory as they head to Detroit for Game 1 of this series Monday.
I believe the A's are showing tremendous value with the underrated A.J. Griffin on the mound tonight. The right-hander has gone 10-9 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.165 WHIP through 26 starts this season.
Anibal Sanchez is having a great season for Detroit, but he's getting too much respect here. In his lone career home start against Oakland, Sanchez gave up six runs, five earned, over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-12 loss.
Griffin is 18-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Griffin is 19-5 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Oakland Monday.
|08-25-13||Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Dodgers +100||8-1||Loss||-100||22 h 15 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +100
I'm going to side with the home team tonight in the Los Angeles Dodgers at a great price against the Boston Red Sox. Jake Peavy is getting way too much respect from the books here.
Peavy has given up four earned runs or more in five of his last eight starts. He only has eight strikeouts in his last three outings, and he hasn't made it past the 7th inning in any of his last eight starts.
Los Angeles has won 46 of its last 57 games overall. The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 14-2 in its last 16 during Game 3 of a series. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Capuanos last 7 starts. These last four trends combine for a 31-2 (94%) system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Sunday.
|08-25-13||New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Houston Texans||Top||31-23||Win||100||19 h 39 m||Show|
20* Saints/Texans FOX Sunday No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5
No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
|08-25-13||Arizona Diamondbacks -142 v. Philadelphia Phillies||5-9||Loss||-142||16 h 46 m||Show|
15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -142
The Arizona Diamondbacks (66-62) are still in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They cannot afford to lose many more games the rest of the way, but the key is that they believe they have a chance.
With the edge the Diamondbacks have on the mound Sunday over the hapless Philadelphia Phillies (58-71), I'll gladly lay the juice and side with them in this one. Pat Corbin is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.
Arizona's left-hander is 13-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 25 starts this season. Corbin is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in one career start against Philadelphia. He'll be up against Tyler Cloyd, who is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in seven starts this year.
Arizona is 22-4 in Corbin's last 26 starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 12-1 in Corbin's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 1-6 in Cloyd's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take the Diamondbacks Sunday.
|08-24-13||Pittsburgh Pirates -125 v. San Francisco Giants||3-6||Loss||-125||12 h 8 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday Mound Mismatch on Pittsburgh Pirates -125
The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-52) have a lot to play for right now as they are in a three-way race with St. Louis and Cincinnati for first place in the NL Central. The San Francisco Giants (56-72) have nothing to play for as they sit in last place in the NL West.
With the edge the Pirates have on the mound tonight, coupled with the motivation factor, this one is a no-brainer. Francisco Liriano is 14-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.56 ERA in his last two starts, allowing one earned run over 16 innings.
Tim Lincecum is on the decline. He has posted his third straight disappointing season, going 6-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.320 WHIP over 25 starts. Lincecum is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA In his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 22 base runners over 11 innings. The former Cy Young winner is also 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, yielding eight earned runs and 17 base runners over eight innings.
Liriano is 9-0 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. Liriano is 8-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. The Pirates are 7-0 in Liriano's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Liriano and Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates Saturday.
|08-24-13||St Louis Rams +7 v. Denver Broncos||Top||26-27||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFL Preseason GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Rams +7
No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
|08-24-13||Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Tennessee Titans||16-27||Loss||-100||11 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +3
No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
|08-24-13||Kansas City Chiefs v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 40||26-20||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* NFL Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Chiefs/Steelers UNDER 40
No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
|08-24-13||Arizona Diamondbacks -106 v. Philadelphia Phillies||12-7||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -106
The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-62) are seven games back of Cincinnati for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Needless to say, they cannot afford to lose many more games if they want to make a run at the postseason.
I like the Diamondbacks' chances of bouncing back Saturday with the underrated Randall Delgado on the mound. The right-hander has gone 4-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 12 starts this season.
Delgado has posted a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia. He'll be up against Ethan Martin, who is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in four starts this season for the Phillies.
Arizona is 6-1 in Delgado's last 7 starts overall. The Phillies are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. Philadelphia is 3-13 in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.
|08-23-13||Pittsburgh Pirates +135 v. San Francisco Giants||3-1||Win||135||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* Pirates/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +135
The Pittsburgh Pirates (75-52) are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants (56-71), who sit in last place in the NL West.
Pittsburgh is loaded with underrated starting pitchers. Charlie Morton is no exception. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 12 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three. Morton has posted a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.
Madison Bumgarner is one of the better young starters in the game. That being said, he's going to find it hard to be motivated to pitch with his team clearly out of the playoff race. Bumgarner has already started to show signs of that, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Pirates are 41-18 in their last 59 vs. a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Giants are 0-7 in Bumgarners last 7 start's with the total set at 6.5 or lower. San Francisco is 0-4 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts as a favorite. Bet the Pirates Friday.
|08-23-13||Seattle Seahawks -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers||Top||17-10||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Packers CBS Friday ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -2.5
No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
|08-23-13||Arizona Diamondbacks +120 v. Philadelphia Phillies||3-4||Loss||-100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +120
The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-61) are showing tremendous value as a road underdog to the hapless Philadelphia Phillies (57-70). While Arizona still has a lot to play for as it chases the NL West Title and NL Wild Card spots, Philadelphia has nothing to play for.
Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated starters in the league for Arizona. The left-hander is 9-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 25 starts, 4-6 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 road starts, and 1-0 with a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts.
Cole Hamels is having a sub-par season in Philadelphia. The left-hander is 5-13 with a 3.61 ERA in 26 starts, including 2-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 home starts. Miley is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Philadelphia, pitching six shutout innings of a 9-5 victory.
Hamels is 3-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. Arizona is 5-0 in Miley's last 5 starts. The Phillies are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Diamondbacks Friday.
|08-22-13||Pittsburgh Pirates +115 v. San Francisco Giants||10-5||Win||115||11 h 24 m||Show|
15* Pirates/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +115
The Pittsburgh Pirates (74-52) are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants (56-70), who sit in last place in the NL West.
Jeff Locke has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year, going 9-4 with a 2.90 ERA over 24 starts. He has been virtually unhittable away from home, going 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 1.138 WHIP In 12 road starts.
Matt Cain has been one of the most overrated starters this year. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 4.35 ERA in 25 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 4.90 ERA in 14 home starts. That's not good when you consider AT&T Park is certainly a pitcher-friendly one.
The Pirates are 40-18 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 7-19 in its last 26 home games. The Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts. Take the Pirates Thursday.
|08-22-13||Atlanta Braves v. St. Louis Cardinals -134||2-6||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -134
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing solid value as a small home favorite against the Atlanta Braves. Not only do they need this game more as they are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central, but they also have a big edge on the mound.
Joe Kelly is 4-3 with a 3.01 ERA in eight starts and 24 relief appearances in 2013. He has been dominant as a starter, going 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in his eight starts. Kelly pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his lone start against Atlanta this year on July 27.
Paul Maholm has been at his worst on the road this year, going 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 13 starts away from home. Maholm has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in his last three starts, all of which came on the road.
Maholm is 0-11 (-11.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Maholm and the Braves are getting outscored by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.
|08-22-13||Carolina Panthers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||34-27||Win||105||9 h 20 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Ravens ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Carolina +3
No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
|08-21-13||Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -115||Top||2-4||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Orioles -115
After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Baltimore Orioles now trail them by 5.5 games for the AL East lead. Needless to say, the Orioles will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season to avoid the sweep.
Due to their motivation and edge on the mound, Baltimore represents my strongest play of the entire 2013 MLB season tonight. Wei-Yin Chen is 6-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in six home starts.
Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers once again tonight. The right-hander is 10-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 25 starts, 5-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 road starts, and 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts.
Chen has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Hellickson sports a 5.85 ERA in three starts against the Orioles this season. In his lone start at Baltimore on May 17, Hellickson gave up eight earned runs over 7 2/3 innings.
The Rays are 5-17 in their last 22 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa is 1-6 in its last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rays are 5-11 in Hellickson's last 16 road starts. The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take this combined 10-0 system backing Chen and the Orioles straight to the bank. Bet Baltimore Wednesday.
|08-20-13||Washington Nationals v. Chicago Cubs +120||4-2||Loss||-100||9 h 3 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Cubs +120
The Chicago Cubs should not be an underdog to the Washington Nationals tonight. Neither team has much to play for, but after an 11-1 victory last night, the Cubs clearly aren't packing it in.
Chris Rusin has been solid as a starter this season for Chicago. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in six starts this year.
He'll be up against Dan Haren, who is 7-11 with a 4.82 ERA in 22 starts for Washington. Haren is 1-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.
This play falls into a system that is 53-27 (66.2%, +28.5 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games, with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game. Take the Cubs Tuesday.
|08-20-13||Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -108||Top||7-4||Loss||-108||8 h 13 m||Show|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -108
The Baltimore Orioles pounded out 15 hits last night but only managed three wins in a 3-4 loss to Tampa Bay. Now, trailing the Rays by 4.5 games, the Orioles really need to get Game 2 tonight.
I like their chances with the underrated Miguel Gonzalez on the mound. The right-hander is 8-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. The Orioles are 5-1 in those six contests.
The Orioles are 12-1 in Gonzalez's last 13 home starts. Baltimore is 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 52-25 in their last 77 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.
|08-20-13||Atlanta Braves v. New York Mets +138||3-5||Win||138||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +138
The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a home underdog to NL East rival Atlanta Tuesday. Considering the edge they have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back the home team at this price.
Zach Wheeler is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts as well.
Brandon Beachy is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this season for Atlanta. Beachy is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in one career start against New York, while Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.
Wheeler is 7-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The Braves are 7-15 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. New York is 7-1 in Wheeler's last 8 starts overall. Take the Mets Tuesday.