25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115) 

The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday after losing three straight games coming in, including their 6-0 shutout loss to the Reds yesterday.  But due to the massive advantage the Indians have on the mound tonight, they should have no problem getting revenge and beating the Reds by two runs or more to cover the Run Line. 

Trevor Bauer has been outstanding this season.  He has gone 8-6 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 18 starts, 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in eight home starts, and 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three outings.  He has 156 K’s in 121 1/3 innings this season.  Bauer has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in his two career home starts against the Reds for a 2.08 ERA. 

Sal Romano has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season for the Reds.  He is 5-8 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 18 starts, 1-4 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in seven road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three outings. 

Cleveland is 15-2 off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Reds are 16-43 in their last 59 interleague road games.  The Indians are 6-1 in Bauer’s last seven home starts.  Cleveland is 40-11 in its last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-150) 

The Los Angeles Dodgers should make easy work of the San Diego Padres tonight and win this game by two runs or more.  They are focused as they approach the All-Star Break to try and grab first place in the NL West, while the Padres are just going through the motions right now. 

The Dodgers have a massive advantage on the mound tonight behind Clayton Kershaw, who is 2-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Kershaw is 17-6 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 32 career starts against San Diego.  Kershaw has allowed one earned run or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts against the Padres, which is absolutely remarkable. 

Luis Perdomo is 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA and 2.186 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA and 3.286 HWIP in two home starts.  Perdomo is also 1-4 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in five career starts against the Dodgers.  He gave up 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 3 innings in his only start against the Dodgers this season back on April 18th. 

Kershaw is 34-5 against teams that strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are winning by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  San Diego is 5-18 as a home dog of +100 or more this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game on average.  Los Angeles is 46-11 in Kershaw’s last 57 starts vs. NL West opponents, including 5-0 in his last five starts in San Diego.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) 

The Houston Astros have won six straight to improve to 61-31 on the season and get a little breathing room on the Seattle Mariners atop the AL West standings.  Look for them to win their seventh straight game tonight, and to do so by two runs or more. 

Gerrit Cole is having the best season of his career.  He has gone 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 18 starts this season with 158 K’s in 116 2/3 innings.  The Astros are 15-3 in those starts.  Cole is also 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in four career starts against Oakland.  The Astros are 3-0 in Cole’s three starts against the A’s this season alone, winning by 4, 3 and 8 runs. 

Frankie Montas is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in seven starts for the A’s this season, but 0-1 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 2/3 innings to the Tigers and Indians.  Montas’ worst start this season came against the Astros on June 14th when he allowed 7 runs and 15 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-7 loss. 

Cole is 20-3 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Monday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-101) 

The Boston Red Sox are 6-0 in their last six games overall to improve to 62-29 on the season.  They should have no problem beating the Rangers to two runs or more today.  They have scored a combined 46 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.2 runs per game. 

They should stay hot at the plate tonight against Texas’ Mike Minor.  The left-hander has been awful on the road this season, going 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in six starts away from home.  It won’t get any easier for Minor at Fenway Park tonight. 

Eduardo Rodriquez has been a huge asset to Boston’s rotation this season.  The left-hander has gone 10-3 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 17 starts with 100K’s in 93 2/3 innings.  He is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 0.805 WHIP in two career starts against Texas. 

Rodriquez is 17-2 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are winning by 2.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday. 

15* Cards/Giants NL No-Brainer on San Francisco -119 

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Madison Bumgarner as this small of a home favorite for the Giants.  We’ll take advantage Sunday and back the Giants to even this series with the Cardinals with a victory in Game 4 today. 

Bumgarner has shown no signs of rust since returning from a freak injury that sidelined him for a couple months to start the season.  The left-hander is 1-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in six starts this year, including 1-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in three home starts. 

Jack Flaherty is having a solid season for the Cardinals.  However, he’s up against a Giants team that tagged him for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his only career start against them last year.  And Flaherty has struggled in his last two starts coming in, giving up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in losses to Arizona and Cleveland. 

The Giants are 10-1 in their last 11 Sunday games.  San Francisco is 12-3 in its last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+103) 

The players’ only meeting has really made a big difference for the Nationals.  They are 3-0 since, and their offense has exploded by 35 combined runs in the three wins, including 18 yesterday.  They should beat the Marlins by two runs or more once again Sunday. 

Tanner Roark is 3-9 with a 4.44 ERA in 17 starts this season.  I expect him to have a great start here against the Marlins.  He has given up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Miami for a 2.08 ERA. 

Trevor Richards has been awful this season.  He is 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 11 starts, and 1-3 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in six road starts.  He is in line to get rocked by this hot Nats’ lineup today. 

The Marlins are 20-42 in their last 62 road games.  Miami is 1-7 in its last eight Sunday games.  The Marlins are 3-14 in their last 17 during Game 4 of a series.  The Nationals are 5-1 in Roark’s last six home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings, including 4-1 in Roark’s last five starts against Miami.  Take the Nationals Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+110) 

The Cleveland Indians had won five straight while scoring at least 6 runs in four of those wins prior to a 3-6 upset loss to the Indians yesterday.  They’ll bounce back with a victory Sunday by two runs or more. 

Shane Bieber has had an excellent start to his rookie season.  He is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five starts, 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in two home starts, and 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts overall. 

Brett Anderson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  It’s amazing he has even made the rotation for the A’s.  Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA and 2.022 WHIP in four starts this season. 

Cleveland is 19-3 in home games vs. teams who average 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Indians are 5-0 in Bieber’s last five starts.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-155) 

The Houston Astros will have no problem winning by two runs or more Saturday against the Chicago White Sox.  They have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate in this one. 

Charlie Morton is 10-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  He is also 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 2-1 with a 0.92 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last three starts.  Morton is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in one career start against Chicago. 

James Shields id 3-8 with a 4.06 ERA in 18 starts for the White Sox this season, including 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in six road starts.  Shields faced the Astros on April 20th this season, giving up 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-0 loss. 

Houston is 28-5 vs. teams who are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game this season.  It is winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Shields is 9-38 as a dog of +150 or more in his career.  His teams are losing by 2.7 runs per game on average.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* Cards/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -115 

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in, including last night’s embarrassing 2-11 loss to the Cardinals.  Look for them to respond in a big way with a victory in Game 2 Friday. 

Dereck Rodriquez has been impressive this season for the Giants.  He is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in six starts, 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts overall. 

John Gant is overmatched in this one.  He is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.07 ERA in his lone road start. 

The Giants are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  San Francisco is 4-0 in Rodriquez’s last four starts.  The Cardinals are 1-6 in Gant’s last seven starts.  Take the Giants Friday. 

15* Dodgers/Angels Interleague No-Brainer on Los Angeles Dodgers -120 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are now in a first place tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks atop the NL West.  They looked dead in the water about a month ago, but have ridden a big month of June and have a ton of momentum right now.  Look for them to dispose of the Angels in Game 1 of this series tonight. 

I like the fact that the Dodgers had yesterday off, while the Angels played in Seattle, so they are the fresher team.  The Dodgers also have the advantage on the mound with Kenta Maeda, who is 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 starts this season.  Made pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory in his last start against the Angels last season. 

The Angels will go with Felix Pena, who is 1-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in three starts this season.  But he’s only averaging 4.8 innings per start and has faced an easy schedule of opposing teams in his limited action.  He will get rocked by the Dodgers tonight. 

The Dodgers have scored a combined 37 runs in winning each of their last four games.  The Angels are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall.  The Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Dodgers are 5-1 in Maeda’s last six interleague starts.  The Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 during Game 1 of a series.  Roll with the Dodgers Friday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+100) 

The players’ only meeting on Wednesday clearly helped this team.  They could have given up down 9-0 yesterday to the Marlins, but fought back with 14 unanswered runs and a 14-12 victory.  I think this will be a great team to back in the immediate future, and I’ll continue to do so tonight. 

The Nationals have a big advantage on the mound behind Gio Gonzalez.  The left-hander is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA in eight home starts.  Gonzalez owns the Marlins, going 10-3 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.046 WHIP in 16 career starts against them. 

Dan Straily is 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his last three.  Straily has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-1 with a 4.03 ERA in five career starts against them. 

Gonzalez is 41-15 in home games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR’s/game in his career.  His teams are winning by 1.8 runs per game on average.  Miami is 3-16 in its last 19 road games after scoring 8 runs or more.  It is losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Marlins are 1-6 in Straily’s last seven starts.  Washington is 43-16 in its last 59 home meetings with Miami, including 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last seven home starts against them.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Friday. 

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+110) 

The Washington Nationals just had a players’ only meeting yesterday after getting swept by the Red Sox to fall to 42-43 on the season.  They have now lost eight of their last nine games overall.  I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Marlins Thursday. 

Jeremy Hellickson has been awesome for the Nationals this season.  He has gone 2-1 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 10 starts, including 0-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in three home starts.  Hellickson is also 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Marlins. 

Pablo Lopez will be making just the second start of his career for the Marlins.  He pitched well in his major league debut, giving up two runs in six innings against the Mets on Saturday.  But the Nationals are a different animal, and he will have his work cut out for him tonight. 

The Nationals are 5-2 in Hellickson’s last seven starts.  The Marlins are 5-22 in their last 27 Thursday games. Washington is 42-16 in its last 58 home meetings with Miami.  The Nationals are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -155 

The Houston Astros should take care of business tonight against the Texas Rangers.  The Astros are now 31-14 on the road this season and scoring 5.7 runs per game away from home.  They are worth laying the heavier juice here today. 

Gerrit Cole is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 17 starts this season with 151 K’s in 111 2/3 innings.  Cole is 4-0 against the money line in four career starts against Texas.  He has given up just 4 earned runs in 27 innings with 42 K’s for a 1.33 ERA. 

Mike Minor is 6-4 with a 4.64 ERA in 15 starts for Texas this season.  Minor has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six career starts against them. 

Houston is 13-0 in road games vs. teams who are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game this season.  The Astros are 14-3 in Cole’s 17 starts this season.  The Rangers are 0-5 in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Astros are 7-0 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Astros Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119) 

After losing three straight to the Rays over the weekend, the Astros now have just a half-game lead on the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory to get back on track in Game 1 of this series against the Texas Rangers Tuesday. 

Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been at his best this season, but he’s still been solid with a 4.22 ERA in 17 starts, a 3.54 ERA in nine road starts, and a 3.12 ERA in his last three.  Keuchel has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last eight starts against the Rangers. 

Austin Bibens-Dirkxx is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in four starts this season.  But he has faced some suspect lineups in the Royals (twice), Padres and Mariners.  This is by far his stiffest test of the season tonight against an Astros team that is 30-14 on the road and scoring 5.7 runs per game away from home. 

Houston is 12-0 in road games vs. teams who are outscored by their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season.  It is winning these games by 5.2 runs per game on average.  The Astros are 18-3 on the road against division opponents this season, winning by 3.5 runs per game.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants -104 

The San Francisco Giants just swept the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road.  They are now making their move up the NL West standings, and they have a healthy, effective Madison Bumgarner back at the top of the rotation. 

Bumgarner gets the ball against the Rockies tonight.  He has gone 1-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in five starts this season.  He has been brilliant in his last two starts, pitching 15 shutout innings while allowing only 9 base runners and striking out 16 against the Rockies and Padres.  Bumgarner is 12-7 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 27 career starts against Colorado. 

Kyle Freeland has been the best starter for Colorado this season, going 7-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 16 starts.  But he’s really no match for Bumgarner in this one.  I just think with all the momentum the Giants have and their ace on the mound they are a steal at this price of nearly even money. 

The Giants are 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  San Francisco is 4-0 in its last four road games.  The Rockies are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. NL West opponents.  Colorado is 4-10 in its last 14 home games.  The Rockies are 1-5 in Freeland’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 6-2 in Bumgarner’s last eight starts vs. Colorado.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -122 

The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost each of the first two games of this series to the A’s and want to avoid a sweep with a Game 3 win this afternoon. 

The Indians have the clear advantage on the mound behind the underrated Mike Clevinger.  All he’s done is dominate the past two seasons for the Indians.  Clevinger is 6-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 16 starts this season, 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA in eight road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts overall. 

Frankie Montas pitched well in his first few starts for the A’s.  However, reality has set in of late, and Months is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.267 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and a whopping 34 base runners over 15 innings in this stretch. 

Cleveland is 53-17 after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Indians are 35-17 in their last 52 during Game 3 of a series.  Cleveland is 5-1 in Clevinger’s last six starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Indians Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-110) 

The Houston Astros will bounce back from a rare loss to the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday.  The Astros are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall, including a perfect 4-0 in their last four games following a loss during this stretch. 

Ace Justin Verlander gets the ball for the Astros today.  Verlander is 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.809 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in eight road starts.  The right-hander is also 8-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 17 career starts against Tampa Bay. 

Ryne Stanek is being used as a starter despite the fact that he’s a reliever for the Rays.  I just don’t trust this strategy that Tampa Bay is employing.  The Astros can’t be held down for long, and after being limited offensively the past two days, look for them to bust out in a big way today. 

Houston is 30-12 on the road this season and scoring 5.9 runs per game.  The Astros are 17-3 on the road this season after two straight games allowing 3 or fewer runs.  Houston is 6-0 in its last six during Game 3 of a series.  The Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 1-4 in Stanek’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. 

20* Rockies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 

The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers are both coming off big run totals last night.  The Rockies and Giants combined for 17 runs, while the Dodgers and Cubs combined for 16.  In fact, the OVER is 5-1 in Dodgers last six games as they have combined for 11 or more runs with their opponents five times. 

Tyler Anderson is 4-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Rockies.  Anderson certainly doesn’t enjoy facing the Dodgers, going 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles. 

Rich Hill has battled injury and poor performance once again this season.  He is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in four home starts.  Hill has never beaten the Rockies, going 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Hill is a perfect 7-0 OVER vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  Colorado is 7-0 OVER in road games after having lost four of their last five games this season.  The OVER is 5-0 in Anderson’s last five road starts.  The OVER is 5-0 in Anderson’s last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last four home starts.  The OVER is 6-0 in Hill’s last six starts vs. NL West opponents.  These six trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -122 

The Philadelphia Phillies should be much bigger favorites over the Washington Nationals today.  They have a big advantage on the mound in this one. 

Ace Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies.  He has gone 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including a perfect 6-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in seven home starts.  Nola has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts against Washington. 

Tanner Roark is 3-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 15 starts this season.  He has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA and 2.024 WHIP in his last three starts.  Roark is also 1-3 with a 7.62 ERA in his last five starts against Philadelphia, allowing 22 earned runs in 26 innings. 

The Nationals are 0-5 in their last five road games.  The Phillies are 7-0 in Nola’s seven home starts this season.  Washington is 3-8 in Roark’s last 11 road starts.  Bet the Phillies Thursday. 

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +110 

The Mets should not be favored over the Pirates today.  They are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with their lone win coming last night in extra innings.  I expect their celebration to be short-lived tonight. 

Pittsburgh has the clear advantage on the mound behind Ivan Nova, who is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Nova has been lights out of late, going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against Arizona, Cincinnati and the Cubs.  Nova has never lost to the Mets, going 1-0 (3-0 money line) with a 3.11 ERA in three career starts against them. 

Zack Wheeler is just 2-6 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 14 starts for the Mets this season.  He has yet to win at home, going 0-5 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in seven starts at Citi Field.  Wheeler is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in one career start against Pittsburgh. 

The Mets are 0-7 in Wheeler’s last seven home starts.  New York is 1-9 in Wheeler’s last 10 starts overall.  The Mets are 15-36 in their last 51 games.  The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six Wednesday games.  Take the Pirates Wednesday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -109 

The Seattle Mariners need to be bigger favorites against the Baltimore Orioles today.  The Mariners are 49-31 on the season, while the Orioles are 23-55.  Not only that, the Mariners have a huge advantage on the mound tonight. 

Wade LeBlanc still hasn’t suffered a loss in 10 starts this season, going 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.158 WHIP.  LeBlanc has never lost to the Orioles, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

Alex Cobb has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-9 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in 13 starts.  Cobb is also 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in seven career starts against the Mariners.  He has allowed 16 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Seattle. 

Cobb is 0-8 (-8.8 units) vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse this season.  Baltimore is 0-11 vs. AL West opponents this season.  The Mariners are 7-0 in LeBlanc’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Orioles are 0-4 in Cobb’s last four home starts.  These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Seattle tonight.  Bet the the Mariners Wednesday. 

15* Reds/Braves NL Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -138 

The Atlanta Braves will bounce back from an upset loss to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday.  The Braves have a big advantage on the mound in this one, and the Reds are now getting too much respect from the books after winning eight of their last nine coming in. 

Sean Newcomb has been an ace for the Braves this season.  He has gone 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 15 starts.  Newcomb has never lost to the Reds, going 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against them, and the Braves went 2-0 in those games. 

Luis Castillo has been a big disappointment for the Reds this season.  He is 5-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-5 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in nine road starts.  Castillo is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in one career start against Atlanta. 

The Reds are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 1-4 in Castillo’s last five starts.  Atlanta is 11-3 in its last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 25-9 in their last 34 games following a loss.  Atlanta is 8-3 in Newcomb’s last 11 starts.  Bet the Braves Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -154 

The Reds are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their recent shocking 7-game winning streak, which included a 4-game sweep of the Cubs for the first time since 1983.  They were clearly going to have a letdown in this series with the Braves, and they lost Game 1 yesterday.  I look for the Braves to take Game 2 as well thanks to their huge advantage on the mound. 

Anibal Sanchez has stepped into the rotation and done a tremendous job thus far.  Sanchez is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in three home starts.  Sanchez is also 2-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in four career starts against Cincinnati. 

Matt Harvey got traded to the Reds this season and hasn’t been on his game.  Harvey is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 6.29 ERA in seven road starts.  Harvey is also 3-7 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.349 WHIP in 12 career starts against Atlanta.  He gave up 6 runs in 6 innings of a 4-12 loss at Atlanta in his only start against them this season. 

Cincinnati is 3-15 off a game where its bullpen blew a save over the last two seasons.  The Reds are 50-109 in their last 159 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Braves are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Atlanta is 5-1 in Sanchez’s last six starts.  Bet the Braves Tuesday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -147 

The Atlanta Braves will put a halt to the Reds’ surprising 7-game winning streak tonight.  The Reds are in a massive letdown spot here after sweeping the Cubs in a four-game series for the first time since 1983 over the weekend. 

Mike Foltynewicz will be excited to be back on the mound after a brief stint on the 10-day disabled list.  He is having a monster season, going 5-4 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.139 WHIP with 94 K’s in 79 innings.  Folty is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati. 

Tyler Mahle is having a decent season for the Reds.  He is 6-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  But he’s no match for Foltynewicz, who has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts this season, including one or fewer in six of his last seven. 

Atlanta is 9-1 after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Braves Monday. 

20* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +105 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost four straight, including the first three games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They will be highly motivated for a win Sunday to avoid the sweep and salvage the series with a victory in Game 4 this afternoon. 

Trevor Williams has been solid all season for the Pirates.  He is 6-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in 15 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in eight home starts.  Williams has fared very well in three career starts against Arizona, going 1-1 wth a 3.21 ERA and 1.214 WHIP. 

Clay Buchholz is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what he’s done in limited action this season.  Most of his six starts have come against terrible lineups.  Buchholz is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona.  He gave up 6 runs, 2 earned, and 9 base runners in 4 innings against the Pirates on June 12th this season. 

The Pirates are 8-2 in Williams’ last 10 starts when working on 5 days’ rest.  Buchholz is 5-15 (-12.3 units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pirates Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -106 

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as a small home favorite over the lowly Baltimore Orioles today.  Julio Teheran should be able to take down Dylan Bundy in this matchup. 

The Orioles are 13-42 in their last 55 road games.  Baltimore is 0-5 in Bundy’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 11-40 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record. 

The Braves are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Atlanta is 24-8 in its last 32 games following a loss.  The Braves are 7-1 in Teheran’s last eight home starts.  Bet the Braves Saturday. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants -132 

We are getting the San Francisco Giants at a nice value as small home favorites against the lowly San Diego Padres tonight.  They have the advantage on the mound in this one and should win with ease. 

Chris Stratton is 8-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 15 starts this season.  He has given up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings over last last two starts.  Stratton is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego, firing 13 2/3 shutout innings. 

Clayton Richard is 6-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 15 starts for the Padres, including 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in seven road starts.  Richard is 6-8 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 19 career starts against San Francisco.  In his last last five starts against the Giants, Richard is 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA, giving up 20 earned runs in 26 innings. 

Stratton is 7-0 (+8.4 units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.  The Giants are 11-1 in Stratton’s last 12 home starts.  San Francisco is 10-2 in its last 12 home games.  The Padres are 0-5 in their last five games overall.  Bet the Giants Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -119

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory here Thursday afternoon.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Twins and certainly want to avoid getting swept today. 

Rick Porcello is having another fine season at 8-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 15 starts.  Porcello is 10-10 with a 3.90 ERA in 29 career starts against the Twins. 

Kyle Gibson has been much better on the road than he’s been at home this season.  Gibson has yet to win at home, going 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven starts.  He has given up 5 runs in two of his last three starts against the Red Sox. 

Boston is 14-4 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 this season.  The Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Boston is 41-16 in its last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Twins are 1-4 in Gibson’s last five home starts.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday. 

20* Mets/Rockies MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -102 

The Colorado Rockies are showing great value at basically even money at home tonight against the New York Mets.  It’s rare that you get to back them at home at this price, especially against a team as poor as the 31-39 Mets. 

Chad Bettis is 5-1 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Bettis has been dominant in three career starts against the Mets, giving up just 5 earned runs in 18 innings for a 2.50 ERA. 

Seth Lugo is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what he has done in limited starts this season.  He has only made three starts while compiling a 3.00 ERA.  But this is a different animal in Colorado at hitter-friendly Coors Field. 

The Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 7-20 in its last 27 games overall.  The Mets are 1-5 in Lugo’s last six road starts.  The Rockies are 14-3 in Bettis’ last 17 starts vs. NL East opponents.  New York is 1-5 in the last six meetings.  Bet the Rockies Wednesday. 

15* Tigers/Reds MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +122 

The Detroit Tigers have been one of the most profitable teams in baseball because little was expected of them coming into the season.  But here they are at 36-38 and in the thick of the AL Central race.  I’ll gladly fade the Reds, who are just 27-45 on the season and should not be favored here. 

Michael Fulmer has been a steady performer in Detroit’s rotation over the past few seasons.  He is 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 14 starts this season, but 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last two, allowing just 2 earned runs in 14 innings. 

The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Detroit is 10-0 in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Reds are 12-29 in their last 41 home games.  Cincinnati is 22-49 in its last 71 interleague games.  Take the Tigers Wednesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers +120 

The Detroit Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the big leagues this season.  They have gone 36-37 when they weren’t expected to do anything this year.  Ron Gardenhire is working his magic with this team just as he did with the Twins before. 

The Tigers certainly shouldn’t be underdogs to the Reds today when you consider their huge advantage on the mound.  Matt Boyd is 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 13 starts for the Tigers this season. 

Sal Romano is no match for Boyd.  Romano is 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 14 starts this year.  And the Reds are one of the worst teams in baseball at 26-45 overall and 11-23 at home. 

The Tigers are 5-0 in their last five games overall.  Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games following an off day.  The Tigers are 4-0 in Boyd’s last four starts.  The Reds are 3-13 in Romano’s last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 21-49 in its last 70 interleague games. The Reds are 11-29 in their last 40 home games.  Bet the Tigers Tuesday. 

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

The Houston Astros are absolutely on fire right now.  They are 11-0 in their last 11 games overall while winning nine of those by two runs or more.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of the 11 games, and 7 or more eight times.  They’ll stay motivated to keep this winning streak alive tonight against the Rays. 

Gerrit Cole has been awesome this season.  He has gone 8-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 14 starts with 130 K’s in 93 2/3 innings.  Houston pitching coaches have worked magic on this entire staff, and Cole has been perhaps the biggest beneficiary. 

The Rays continue to deploy relievers as starters in their experiment.  It’s not really working.  Ryan Stanek will get the ball tonight and he has posted a 6.77 ERA in his two road starts.  He’s only averaging 1.5 innings per start. 

The Rays are 1-9 in their last 10 road games.  Tampa Bay is 0-8 in its last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 2-11 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 22-5 in their last 27 home gams vs. a team with a losing road record.  Houston is 12-2 in Cole’s last 14 starts.   

Cole is 11-0 in June road games in his career, and his teams are winning by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot.  Cole is 17-2 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons, and his teams are also winning by 3.5 runs per game in this situation.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Monday. 

20* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on St. Louis +116 

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the rival Chicago Cubs.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Cubs and certainly want revenge to avoid the sweep in Game 3 tonight. 

Jack Flaherty has been impressive this season for the Cardinals.  He has gone 3-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in eight starts with 48 K’s in 45 2/3 innings.  He will be facing the Cubs for the first time, and that element of surprise will be to his advantage. 

Jose Quintana isn’t having a great season for the Cubs.  He is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 13 starts.  Quintana has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last three starts against the Cardinals, all of which have come over the last two seasons. 

The Cubs are 3-10 (-11.1 units) off two straight road wins over a division opponents over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 24-9 (+14.8 units) off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -109 

We are getting the Pittsburgh Pirates at a great value at nearly even money at home today against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds are just 25-44 on the season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Ivan Nova is clearly the betting starter in this matchup.  He has been at his best at home, posting a 3.96 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in four starts this season.  Nova is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his last three home starts against Cincinnati. 

Luis Castillo has been a big disappointment for the Reds this season.  He has gone 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 14 starts, including 2-4 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight road starts.  Castillo hasn’t been getting any better of late, going 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. 

Nova is 48-23 (+19.5 units) as a favorite of -100 to -150 in his career.  The Reds are 22-55 after scoring 2 rinser less n their previous game.  The Pirates are 14-6 in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 in Nova’s last seven starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven home meetings with the Reds.  Bet the Pirates Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130) 

The Houston Astros have won eight straight games coming into this one.  They are on fire at the plate, scoring 5 or more runs in seven of the eight wins.  They have won six of the eight games by two runs or more.  They should beat the Royals by two runs or more in Game 1 of this series Friday. 

The Royals are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  Now they’ll be sending Jake Junis to the mound, and while he has been decent this season, he has struggled of late.  Junis is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is 0-0 with a 17.17 ERA in one career start against Houston, giving up 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. 

Charlie Morton is having another great season for the Astros.  He has gone 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 13 starts this season with 96 K’s in 76 2/3 innings.  He is also 2-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in five road starts. 

Houston is 18-3 in June road games over the last two seasons, winning by 2.6 runs per game.  The Astros are 8-0 in their last eight games.  The Astros are 6-0 in Morton’s last six starts during Game 1 of a series.  The Royals are 2-10 in their last 12 games following an off day.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday.

15* Rockies/Rangers No-Brainer on Colorado +100 

The Colorado Rockies come into this series with the Texas Rangers highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost six of their last seven overall.  The Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games and are falling further and further out of the playoff picture. 

That could be why they are giving Yohander Mendez his first major league start.  Mendez has posted a 0-1 record with a 7.31 ERA in 10 career major league appearances, all in relief.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 16 innings pitched. 

Chad Bettis has been at his best on the road for the Rockies.  He has gone 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in seven starts away from home this season. 

The Rockies are 21-7 in Bettis’ last 28 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Colorado is 4-1 in Bettis’ last five interleague starts.  The Rangers are 6-21 in their last 27 during Game 1 of a series.  Roll with the Rockies Friday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -125 

The Washington Nationals have a big advantage on the mound today over the Toronto Blue Jays in this interleague series.  They also have the hitting and bullpen advantage. 

Gio Gonzalez is 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 12 starts this season for the Nationals.  He has been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in six starts away from home. 

Aaron Sanchez is 3-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in seven home starts. 

The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last four starts.  The Blue Jays are 4-17 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 0-6 in their last six home games vs. a left-hander.  Toronto is 1-9 in Sanchez’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Nationals Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

The Houston Astros are 7-0 in their last seven games overall.  They have been crushing it at the plate, scoring 5 runs or more in six of the seven wins while averaging 7.1 runs per game in the process.  They should beat the A’s by two runs or more again today. 

Justin Verlander is a Cy Young candidate this season.  He has gone 8-2 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.761 WHIP in 14 starts, including 6-1 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in seven road starts.  Verlander is also 14-6 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 22 career starts against Oakland. 

Frankie Montas is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He has posted great numbers, but he has only had three starts this season, and two of those have come against the Kansas City Royals.  This will be by far his stiffest test yet against the red-hot Astros. 

Houston is 22-6 in road games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Astros are 17-3 in road games against division opponents this season.  They are winning by 3.4 runs per game.  Houston is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oakland.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

The Houston Astros have reeled off six straight victories coming into this game with the Oakland A’s tonight. They have scored at least 5 runs in five of the six.  Look for them to win by two runs or more tonight, so we’ll back them on the Run Line instead of laying the heavy price on the money line. 

Gerrit Cole is right up there for the Cy Young award in the American League.  He has gone 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in 13 starts with 124 K’s in 87 2/3 innings.  He is 5-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in seven road starts.  Cole is also 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland, two of which have come this season. 

Paul Blackburn will be making just his second start of the season for the A’s.  His first went well, but it was against the lowly Kansas City Royals, so he’ll be taking a big step up in class here.  Blackburn managed just 22 K’s in 58 2/3 innings last season for the A’s and clearly doesn’t have very good stuff at all. 

Cole is 10-0 in June road games in his career, and his teams are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Cole is 16-2 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons, and his teams are winning by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -110 

The San Francisco Giants will be looking for revenge following an upset Game 1 loss to the Miami Marlins yesterday.  Now we are getting the Giants at a much better value as only a -110 favorite here in Game 2. 

Chris Stratton has been at his best not her road this season, going 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in six starts.  He should be able to shut down the light-hitting Marlins, who are hitting just .233 and scoring 3.5 runs per game this season. 

I’ll gladly fade Trevor Richards, who is still in search of his first victory for the Marlins this season.  Richards is 0-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this year.  The Giants are 8-3 in their last 11 games and have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight, so they’ve really gotten going offensively. 

Stratton is 10-2 (+9.8 units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game this season.  Stratton is a perfect 11-0 (+13.2 units) against the money line with a total of 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Giants Tuesday. 

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cubs/Brewers UNDER 8.5 

Expect a pitcher’s duel tonight between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.  Both starters have been great against the opposition in this series, and that should lead to another low-scoring affair. 

Jose Quintana is 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA in six road starts this season.  Quintana owns the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 0.63 ERA and 0.698 WHIP In six career starts against them.  He has given up just 3 earned runs in 43 innings over those six starts. 

Junior Guerra is having a nice comeback season, going 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  Guerra also owns the Cubs, going 1-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Guerra is 9-1 UNDER off a loss over the last two seasons.  Quintana is 9-1 UNDER in road games against division opponents over the last two years.  The UNDER is 10-2-2 in Brewers last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Guerra’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-117) 

The Houston Astros should have no problem beating the Texas Rangers by two runs or more Sunday.  That’s why we’ll back them on the Run Line instead of laying -200 or more on the money line today. 

Dallas Keuchel has done his best work on the road this season with a 3.35 ERA in seven starts.  Keuchel is 9-9 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 24 career starts against Texas.  He has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last seven starts against the Rangers. 

Matt Moore has arguably been the worst starter in all of baseball over the past two seasons.  It’s amazing the Rangers keep starting him.  Moore is 1-5 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Two of those have come in blowout losses to Houston as he has allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings for a 9.00 ERA. 

Houston is 47-19 as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons.  It is winning in this spot by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings in Texas.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -105 

The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory here Sunday.  They have lost four straight overall and seven of their last eight, which is why we are getting them at such a discount.  They will avoid the sweep and beat the Brewers in Game 3 here. 

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound that would normally warrant them being a big home favorite.  Zach Eflin is 2-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.277 WHIP in six starts this season. 

Brandon Woodruff has been awful this season.  He has gone 1-0 with an 8.48 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in three starts, including 1-0 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in two road starts. 

The Phillies are 28-9 in their last 37 games after allowing 9 runs or more in two straight games.  Look for them to respond in a big way today.  Bet the Phillies Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -105 

It’s amazing how the oddsmakers keep making the Cardinals a small favorite over the Reds.  I’ve cashed them in each of the last two days, and I’ll back them again Sunday because the price is too good to pass up. 

As has been the case in each of the first two games in this series, the Cardinals have the advantage on the mound.  Carlos Marinez is 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Martinez is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cincinnati. 

Anthony Desclafini will be making just his second start of the season after giving up four earned runs in 5 innings for a 7.20 ERA in his first start on June 5th.  He’ll be on a pitch count and won’t be going deep in this one, which will allow the Cardinals to get into the Reds’ awful bullpen early. 

The Cardinals are 17-2 in their last 19 meetings with the Reds, including 11-0 in their last 11 meetings in Cincinnati.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Martinez’s last 10 starts against the Reds.  The Reds are 2-20 vs. excellent defensive catchers who allow 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.  Take the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* Yankees/Mets Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 8.5 

I’m surprised to see a total so low in a game involving the Yankees and two below-average starting pitchers.  The Mets and Yankees should easily top this 8.5-run total today in a slug fest. 

Domingo German has been rocked this season.  He is 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA in five starts, including 0-2 with an 8.70 ERA in two road starts.  Even the Mets should be able to get after him tonight. 

Steven Matz is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA in 11 starts, but just 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA in six home starts.  But the real alarming stats with Matz come in the head-to-head numbers.  He is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees. 

The OVER is 14-4 in Yankees last 18 during Game 2 of a series.  The OVER is 4-0 in Matz’s last four interleague starts.  The Yankees are 18-9 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-117) 

The Houston Astros should have no problem beating the Texas Rangers by two runs or more tonight.  They have been a great bet on the road over the past few seasons because you get a cheaper price with them when away from home. 

The Astros have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Charlie Morton, who is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Morton is also 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five career starts against Texas. 

Mike Minor is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 11 starts this season fr the Rangers.  Minor has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 5.53 ERA in five career starts against them. 

Houston is 46-19 as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Astros are 8-1 in Morton’s last nine starts when working on 5 days’ rest.  Houston is 9-1 in its last 10 meetings in Texas.  Take the Astros on the Run Line. 

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -101 

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound today over the Cincinnati Reds.  Yet, we’re getting the better team and better starter at basically even money here today.  We’ll take advantage. 

Michael Wacha is having a nice comeback season at 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 12 starts, including 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last three. Wacha owns the Reds, going 10-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 16 career starts against them. 

Luis Castillo is 4-6 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He’s no match for Wacha in this one. 

Cincinnati is 2-19 vs. excellent defensive catchers that allow 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.  The Cardinals are 9-2 in Wacha’s last 11 starts.  St. Louis is 16-2 in its last 18 meetings with the Reds, including a perfect 10-0 in its last 10 meetings in Cincinnati.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday. 

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland +4.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers easily could be up 2-1 in this series.  They blew the game late in Game 1 and Game 3.  This is a repeat of last year when the Warriors jumped out 3-0, only for the Cavs to win Game 4 and avoid the sweep.  I think that will be the case again here. 

The Cavaliers still haven’t shot up to their potential in any of the three games, which makes it even more remarkable that they could easily be up 2-1 in this series.  They shot 44.4% in Game 1, 41.1% in Game 2 and 43.5% in Game 3.  I have to think they are primed for their best shooting performance of the season in Game 4. 

Conversely, the Warriors have shot lights out at 51.1% in Game 1, 57.3% in Game 2 and 51.9% in Game 3.  Look for the Cavaliers to make the proper adjustments to not allow so many easy layups and dunks that the Warriors have been getting.  Lebron James called out his team for having too many mental errors after Game 3, and they should respond accordingly. 

Golden State is 3-11 ATS off five or more consecutive wins this season.  Cleveland is 8-1 SU In its last nine home playoff games.  The Warriors are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Friday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) 

The Houston Astros should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight over the Texas Rangers.  They have a massive advantage on the mound tonight just as they do in most games, and that’s why backing them on the run line has been a great bet on the road this season. 

Justin Verlander has been unhittable since getting traded to the Astros last season.  He has gone 7-2 with a 1.24 ERA and 0.721 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in six road starts.  Verlander is 13-8 with a 2.93 ERA in 25 career starts against Texas, including 2-1 with a 1.38 ERA in his last four starts against them, allowing just 4 earned runs in 26 innings while striking out 34 batters. 

Doug Fister is no match for Verlander.  The right-hander is 1-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in five home starts.  He has gone 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA in six career stats against Houston as well. 

Houston is 45-19 as a road favorite of -125 or higher over the last two seasons, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Astros are 17-6 in Verlander’s last 23 starts.  The Rangers are 1-5 in Fister’s last six starts.  Houston is 8-1 in its last nine meetings in Texas.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -120 

The Cincinnati Reds are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are just 22-41 on the season and 10-21 at home.  They should be bigger underdogs to the 33-27 St. Louis Cardinals in this one. 

Luke Weaver has held his own for the Cardinals, going 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Weaver has never lost to the Reds, going 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.706 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Matt Harvey certainly isn’t happy that he was traded to Cincinnati.  But the Mets made a good move by getting rid of him as he will never be as dominant as he was when he came into the majors due to all the injuries.  Harvey is 1-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in nine starts this season while averaging just 5.0 innings per start. 

St. Louis is 8-0 after scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games this season.  The Cardinals are 36-16 in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Reds are 24-51 in their last 75 games overall, including 10-27 in their last 37 home games.  Cincinnati is 1-7 in its last eight games following a win.  The Cardinals are 15-2 in the last 17 meetings, including a perfect 9-0 in the last nine meetings in Cincinnati.  Take the Cardinals Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-105) 

The Houston Astros should have no problem winning by two runs or more against the Texas Rangers tonight.  They have lost three of their last four coming in, so they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Gerrit Cole should lead them to victory.  He has gone 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in six road starts.  Cole has never lost to the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has 34 K’s in 21 innings in those three starts. 

Cole Hamels has been decent this season at 3-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 starts.  However, he has been at his worst at home, going 1-4 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in six home starts.  And Hamels has already faced the Astros three times this season, so they have the beat on him. 

Cole is 9-0 (+9.7 units) in June road games in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Cole is 14-2 (+11.1 units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 2.4 runs per game on average.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday. 

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +5 

The Cavaliers won’t go down without a fight.  Look for them to come out like gangbusters in Game 3, which always seems to happen with the home team when they were down 0-2 in a series.  Cleveland will get the win and cover in Game 3 Wednesday night. 

Cleveland showed well in Golden State.  The Cavaliers should have won Game 1 but the calls did not go their way as they lost in overtime.  They then kept it within 10 before getting blown out in the 4th quarter of Game 2.  But it will be a different story at home tonight. 

The Cavaliers are 8-1 at home in the playoffs.  They have won eight straight since losing Game 1 to Indiana to open the playoffs.  Their last four victories against the Celtics and Raptors have all come by 9 points or more.  They are just way more comfortable in front of their home fans, especially their role players.  They are 37-13 at home this season. 

Golden State is 4-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.  The Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 3 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Braves -126 

The Atlanta Braves busted out for 14 runs yesterday in an impressive win over the Padres.  They improved to 20-13 on the road this season, which is one of the best road records in baseball.  And they should win again Wednesday thanks to their advantage on the mound. 

Mike Foltynewicz has realized his potential this season.  He is 5-3 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 12 starts, including 3-2 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in six road starts.  He is 3-1 with a 0.56 ERA in his last five starts, giving up just 2 earned runs in 32 innings with 37 K’s. 

Matt Strahm will be making just his second start of the season.  He lasted just two innings in his last start against the Dodgers on May 27th.  He has only made four starts in his 3-year career between Kansas City and San Diego and is used to being a reliever, so he won’t be going deep in this one. 

The Braves are 14-6 in their last 20 road games.  Atlanta is 14-3 in its last 17 during Game 3 of a series.  The Braves are 8-2 int heir last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Braves Wednesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+120) 

The St. Louis Cardinals (32-25) should have no problem beating the lowly Miami Marlins (20-39) by two runs or more in Game 1 of this series Tuesday.  They have a huge advantage on the mound, as well as advantages at the plate and in the bullpen. 

Jose Urena is still in search of his first win for the Marlins.  He is 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 12 starts this season, and the Marlins are 0-12 in those 12 starts.  Urena is also 1-1 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis. 

Carlos Martinez is 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in five home starts.  Martinez is 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins as well. 

Martinez is 34-11 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in his career.  Urena is 0-12 in all games this season and the Marlins are losing by 2.8 runs per game on average.  The Marlins are 0-8 in their last eight vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in Martinez’s last seven starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A’s -122 

The Oakland A’s have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Texas Rangers.  They should be bigger favorites as a result.  They also have the advantage at the plate and in the bullpen. 

Sean Manaea is having a very good season for the A’s, going 5-6 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He has owned the Rangers of late, going 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing just 3 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. 

Matt Moore has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He is 1-5 with an 8.02 ERA and 2.022 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Moore is also 1-2 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in six career starts against Oakland. 

Moore is 13-32 (-18.4 units) against the money line in night games over the last three seasons.  The A’s are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  Oakland is 13-3 in its last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rangers are 13-27 in their last 40 home games.  The A’s are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.  Oakland is 6-2 in Manaea’s last eight starts vs. Texas.  Bet the A’s Tuesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+103) 

The Cleveland Indians should have no problem winning by two runs or more in Game 1 of this series with the Milwaukee Brewers.  They will be sending their ace to the mound and will be highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight to the Twins over the weekend. 

Corey Kluber is having another Cy Young-caliber season.  He is 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.791 WHIP in six home starts.  He is also 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in his last three starts, which is impressive considering he has faced Houston twice. 

Junior Guerra isn’t as good as his 2.65 ERA and 1.123 WHIP would indicate this season.  One of his worst starts this year came against Cleveland on May 9th as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 2-6 loss to the Indians for a 7.20 ERA. 

Cleveland is a perfect 11-0 in home games off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 4.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* Braves/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +106 

The Atlanta Braves should not be underdogs to the San Diego Padres today.  They have the better lineup and starter going in this matchup tonight and will get a win in Game 1 of this series as a result. 

Julio Teheran has been better on the road than at home over the last few seasons.  That has been the case again this year as he is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in six road starts.  Teheran is also 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last four starts against the Padres, giving up just 7 earned runs in 27 innings. 

Clayton Richard is 3-6 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Padres.  Amazingly, Richard has never beaten the Braves in six career starts, going 0-6 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.990 WHIP.  He falls to 0-7 tonight. 

The Braves are 13-5 in their last 18 road games.  Atlanta is 13-6 in Teheran’s last 19 road starts.  The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a teams with a losing record.  The Padres are 5-21 in Richard’s last 26 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Atlanta is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Braves Monday. 

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Cleveland +11.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers proved they could play with the Warriors in Game 1.  They forced overtime and would have won if not for several missed calls by the officials down the stretch.  Of course, a missed FT by George Hill and a bonehead play by JR Smith did not help. 

The Cavs will come back even more motivated and confident in Game 2 tonight.  And while the Cavs are now fully healthy with Kevin Love back, the Warriors are far from it. 

Andre Iguodala is doubtful for Game 2 and his absence for this team thus far is not getting factored into the line like it should be.  He is more important to the Warriors than he gets credit for.  Also, Klay Thompson suffered a knee injury in Game 1 that had him really hobbled after the game.  He is questionable to play in Game 2. 

The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Warriors are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following a win.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -122 

The Arizona Diamondbacks would love to cap off a 5-1 home stand against the Reds and Marlins with another victory Sunday.  They struggled the entire month of May and want to turn the page to June in the right way. 

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have come to life by scoring a combined 36 runs in their last five games.  They should be able to get after Dan Straily as well.  Straily is 2-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in six starts for the Marlins this season. 

Matt Koch has held his own for the Diamondbacks.  He is 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in eight starts.  And the Diamondbacks certainly have the bullpen advantage.  Arizona’s relievers have a 2.49 ERA this season, while Miami relievers have a 5.82 ERA. 

Miami is 3-16 vs. a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or better this season.  The Marlins are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a right-handed starter.  The Diamondbacks are 25-10 in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven meetings in Arizona.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -150 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned it around during this home stand with the lowly Reds and Marlins.  They have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall.  Their bats have come to life as they’ve scored a combined 30 runs in the four games. 

Now Zack Greinke looks to continue that momentum.  The right-hander has been dominant at home throughout his career, and that hasn’t changed this season.  Greinke is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in six home starts this season. 

Caleb Smith has held his own for the Marlins this season, but the bullpen edge certainly goes to the Diamondbacks.  They have a 2.52 ERA in all games this season, while the Marlins have a 5.79 ERA in all games and a 6.91 ERA in road games. 

Greinke is 13-1 against the money line in home games vs. NL teams with an OBP of .315 or worse over the last two seasons.  Greinke is 12-0 in home games vs. a team with a losing record over the last two years.  Greinke is 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -130 

I love the spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks today.  They had yesterday off while the Marlins played a late game in San Diego.  The Diamondbacks will be rested and refocused, ready to take down the 20-35 Marlins in Game 1 of this series tonight. 

Clay Buchholz has stepped into Arizona’s rotation and performed brilliantly.  He has posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.455 WHIP in his two starts, giving up just 2 earned runs and 5 base runners in 11 innings.  He’ll be able to shut down a weak Marlins’ lineup that is hitting just .229 and scoring 3.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. 

Elieser Hernandez has held his own thus far with a 2.40 ERA in his three starts this season.  But he is only averaging 5.0 innings per start, which could be a problem as the Marlins already have a tired bullpen, and that bullpen is likely to get tested early in this one.  It’s a bullpen with a 5.84 ERA on the season and a 7.09 ERA on the road. 

Plays on favorites of -125 to -175 (Arizona) - a cold hitting team batting .215 or worse in their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a batter in his last outing are 47-11 (81%, +30.8 units) over the last five seasons.  The Marlins are 13-31 in their last 44 road games.  Miami is 1-6 in its last seven games overall.  Arizona is 5-1 in its last six games following an off day.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. 

15* Rangers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 

It’s surprising to see a total this low for two average to below average starters in Mike Minor and Wade LeBlanc.  Also, these teams have combined for 14 and 13 runs the past two days, so getting over 7.5 seems like a very generous price on this total. 

Minor is 4-3 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in four road starts.  Minor last faced the Mariners in Seattle on May 15th, giving up 6 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 1/3 innings of a 8-9 loss. 

LeBlanc has certainly been impressive in a small sample size this season, and that’s the key.  He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in five starts this year.  But most of that has come against sub-par lineups in Detroit, Minnesota (twice), Oakland and Toronto.  He’s due for a reality check soon. 

The OVER is 10-3-3 in Rangers last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1 in Minor’s last six starts.  The OVER is 18-8-2 in Mariners last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Cavs/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Cleveland +13 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been hearing all week leading up to Game 1 of the NBA Finals how they are the biggest underdogs in NBA Finals history.  They will be highly motivated to prove their doubters wrong in Game 1, just as they have been doing this entire season. 

They’re already motivated enough due to the rivalry they have formed with the Warriors as this is their fourth straight year meeting in the NBA Finals.  You know Lebron will be playing with a chip on his shoulder in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight as massive 13-point underdogs. 

Kevin Love is questionable with a concussion, but the Cavaliers proved they could win Game 6 and Game 7 without him against the Celtics.  The Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala due to a knee injury once again.  All the numbers show how much better they are offensively AND defensively with Iguodala in the lineup.  His absence continues to get overlooked. 

Plays on underdogs (Cleveland) as a #4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Golden State is 6-17 ATS in its last 13 games following a win.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -138 

The Oakland A’s will be highly motivated for a win today to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the Rays.  It was smart of them to move the start time up to 3:35 EST today so fans who want to attend the baseball game and watch the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Oakland can later at night.  I think the buzz will carry over to the baseball team today. 

Daniel Mengden has been lights out of late.  The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.591 WHIP in his last three starts.  Mengden hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs seven of his last eight starts, and he has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in six of those. 

Ryan Stanek is going to get pulled early in this one just as he did in his first and only start for the Rays on May 26th.  He went just 1 2/3 innings despite not allowing a single base runner against the Orioles.  The Rays are experimenting with using long relievers right now and while it has worked, it’s only a matter of time before it becomes too taxing on their bullpen. 

The Rays are 0-6 in their last six during Game 4 of a series.  The A’s are 5-0 in their last five after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Oakland is 4-1 in Mengden’s last five home starts.  Take the A’s Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) 

I’ve backed the Diamondbacks with success each of the last two days and I’m going to back them again here Wednesday to sweep the Cincinnati Reds.  They won 12-5 on Monday and 5-2 on Wednesday and should also win this game by two runs or more. 

The Diamondbacks have a huge advantage on the mound behind Pat Corbin, who is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Corbin has been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.675 WHIP in six starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in seven career starts against Cincinnati. 

Sal Romano has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 2-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-3 with a 12.80 ERA and 2.686 WHIP in his last three.  Romano is also 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.970 WHIP in five road starts.  He gave up 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings of a 2-11 loss to Arizona in his only career start against them last year. 

Cincinnati is 2-15 vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season, losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Reds are 2-15 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game this season, losing by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in Corbin’s last 12 home starts.  Arizona is 5-0 in Corbin’s last five starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -117 

The Diamondbacks have had a disastrous month of May.  That’s why they are so undervalued right now though, and they have a chance to get back on track with back-to-back home series with the Reds and Marlins here.  They won 12-5 over Cincinnati yesterday to drop the Reds to 19-36 on the season. 

Zack Godley has been great at home this season, going 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in four home starts.  He is coming off a bad start at Milwaukee, which has him undervalued as well. 

Luis Castillo is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  He is 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in six road starts. 

Cincinnati is 2-14 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season.  The Reds are 21-46 in their last 67 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are 22-9 in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston +6.5 

It’s pretty remarkable this shift in point spread compared to the other three games played in Houston thus far.  The betting public is all over the Warriors in Game 7, which is evidenced by this adjustment.  We’ll gladly take the value side and the Houston Rockets as 6.5-point home underdogs. 

The Rockets were 2.5-point favorites for Game 1, 2-point favorites for Game 2, and 1-point favorites for Game 5, all at home.  Now they are 6.5-point underdogs, which is basically a 7.5 to 9-point adjustment.  I get the Chris Paul is a game-time decision, but he isn’t worth that much to the point spread. 

The Warriors have injury issues of their own that are getting overlooked here.  Andre Iguodala is doubtful with his knee injury after missing the last two games.  And the Warriors have certainly missed him, especially defensively.  Kevin Looney is also questionable with a toe injury, and he has been starting in Iguodala’s place.  Paul at least has the questionable tag, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gut it out. 

The Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Rockets in Game 7 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -128 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been in a funk this entire month.  But after a 9-game road trip, they return home now to face the lowly Cincinnati Reds (19-35) and then the Miami Marlins the next two series.  This is an excellent chance for them to get back on track, starting with Game 1 tonight. 

Because of their recent struggles, we are getting the Diamondbacks at a cheaper price than we should be today.  They clearly have the advantage on the mound behind Matt Koch, who is 2-3 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has held his own for Arizona. 

Homer Bailey is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in 11 starts for the Reds.  It hasn’t gotten any better of late for him as Bailey is 1-1 with a 7.98 ERA and 2.727 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Diamondbacks should get right offensively against him. 

Cincinnati is 2-13 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season.  The Reds are 8-23 in Bailey’s last 31 starts.  The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Arizona is 21-9 in its last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -129 

The Washington Nationals are playing some great baseball right now and have moved to within one game of the Braves for 1st place in the NL East.  They have gone 18-6 in their last 24 games overall.  Now they get to face the Baltimore Orioles (17-36), who own the second-worst record in the American League. 

Washington certainly has the advantage on the mound in this one.  Gio Gonzalez has gone 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in nine starts this season.  The left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

Alex Cobb has been awful in his first season with the Orioles in 2018.  He has gone 1-6 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.932 WHIP in eight starts.  He is 0-2 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in two home starts this year. 

Baltimore is 7-24 as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Orioles are 1-11 after scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games this season.  The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.  The Orioles are 0-9 in their last nine interleague games.  Baltimore is 1-7 in Cobb’s last eight starts.  Roll with the Nationals Monday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 200 

Every game in Boston thus far has gone UNDER the total in this series.  The Cavs and Celtics have combined for 191, 201 and 179 points in their three meetings in Boston for an average of 190.3 combined points per game.   

Now we’re seeing a 200-point total for Game 7, and I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  This game will be played close to the vest, and refs will be swallowing their whistles trying to let the players decide the game. 

Another key factor that points to the UNDER is that Cleveland’s second-best player in Kevin Love is going to be out with a concussion that he suffered in Game 6.  That is going to force Cleveland to play a bigger lineup the majority of the game with more of Tristan Thompson.  It will be more of a defensive lineup, and the Cavs will certainly miss Love’s floor spacing on offense. 

Boston is 12-3 UNDER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Cavs last 21 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Yankees OVER 8 

Expect plenty of runs between the Yankees and Angels today to push this total OVER 8 runs.  This is a very low total for two of the better offensive teams in the American League.  They combined for 15 runs yesterday and a similar output can be expected today. 

Garrett Richards is having a solid season at 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 10 starts.  However, Richards hates facing the Yankees, going 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been shaky each of the last two seasons.  He is 5-2 with a 5.08 ERA in nine starts this year.  That includes 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in four home starts, and 1-0 with a 6.06 ERA in his last three outings. 

The Yankees are 11-1 to the OVER as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season.  New York is 12-3 to the OVER off a loss this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Yankees last seven games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Tanaka’s last seven starts.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -143 

The Colorado Rockies are on a 9-game home stand here where they expect to make up some serious ground.  They beat the Reds yesterday, and I expect them to sweep them.  Look for them to get a victory in Game 2 tonight against the 18-34 Reds. 

Tyler Henderson has held his own this season at 3-1 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three home starts.  Anderson is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in one career start against Cincinnati. 

Tyler Mahle is 3-6 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 10 starts for the Reds, including 2-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in five road starts.  This will be arguably his toughest challenge of the season.  Mahle is 0-2 with a 7.74 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 8 earned runs, 4 homers and 17 base runners in 9 1/3 innings. 

Cincinnati is 1-12 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.  The Reds are 17-43 in their last 60 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Colorado is 35-16 in its last 51 home meetings with Cincinnati.  Take the Rockies Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 212 

This is by far the lowest total of the series.  It opened at 225.5 for Game 1, and we’ve seen totals of 225, 226, 227.5 and 219.5 since.  Sure, the under is 4-1 in this series, but now the value is with the OVER for Game 6 with a total of just 212 points. 

I think the Rockets will get fatigued without Chris Paul, which will impact their defense more than anything.  The Warriors should be able to hang a big number on them, but I’m not willing to lay the 12-point spread.  So I think the better bet is with the OVER as the Rockets should be able to somewhat keep pace. 

Both teams have shot awful the past two games, which is why we have seen such low-scoring affairs.  I have to think that the two best offensive teams in the NBA won’t be held down for a 3rd straight game.  Look for the Warriors to shoot 50% or better.   

The Rockets have shot 39% or less three consecutive games, and that’s not likely to happen again.  James Harden is in a 0-for-20 shooting slump from 3-point range.  He won’t be held without a 3-pointer in Game 6, and he should have a huge game knowing he needs it with Paul out.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+100) 

The Colorado Rockies will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five overall.  They also come in with many advantages, not the least of which is rest.  The Reds played yesterday, while the Rockies had yesterday off to regroup and recover. 

No question the Rockies have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Jon Gray, who is 4-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 63 K’s in 55 2/3 innings.  Gray has never lost to the Reds, going 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against them. 

Sal Romano is 2-5 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 10 starts this season with only 34 K’s in 49 2/3 innings.  Romano has been awful on the road, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in four starts, and it’s not going to get any easier for him at hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight.  Romano is also 0-2 with a 15.96 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings to the Cubs and Giants. 

Cincinnati is 1-11 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  Colorado is 7-2 in Gray’s last nine home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 16-34 in their last 50 meetings in Colorado.  Take the Rockies on the Run Line Friday. 

20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -7 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in this series.  These games haven’t even been close as the home team has won by 9 or more points in all five meetings, and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  This trend will continue here tonight. 

The Cavs are 7-0 in their last seven playoff home games.  Their role players are averaging way more points at home than on the road in the playoffs, especially in this series.  Lebron James and company won’t go down without a fight as he tries to keep alive his 9th straight trip to the NBA Finals. 

It has been night and day for the Celtics home and away in these playoffs.  Boston hasn’t lost yet at home, but the Celtics are just 1-6 on the road in the postseason.  Their lone win came in overtime against the 76ers.  This young team just isn’t ready to win a big road game like this one in Game 6 tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -118 

The Philadelphia Phillies have the advantage of rest today.  The Phillies had yesterday off, while the Blue Jays concluded their series with the Angels.  The Phillies are 18-7 at home this season and are one of the most improved teams in baseball. 

Zach Eflin is lacking the respect he deserves from oddsmakers today.  He has been dominant in his three starts this season, going 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.923 WHIP with 17 K’s in 17 1/3 innings. 

Sam Naviglio is getting too much respect tonight.  He has only made one start this season against the Oakland A’s.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 14 starts and five relief appearances in his young career. 

The Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last seven games overall.  The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  Philadelphia is 22-8 in its last 30 home games.  The Phillies are 5-1 in Efflin’s last six starts during Game 1 of a series.  Philadelphia is 5-0 in its last five vs. AL East opponents.  Roll with the Phillies Friday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston +1 

The Houston Rockets earned a gutsy 95-92 win over Golden State in Game 4 to regain home-court advantage.  They don’t want to give it right back.  I look for them to follow it up with another home victory in Game 5 to take control of this series. 

The Rockets showed in Game 4 that they can defend every bit as good as the Warriors when they put their minds to it.  They held the Warriors to just 39.3% shooting and forced 16 turnovers.  That effort gave them the belief they can beat the Warriors, which is half the battle.  They should be oozing with confidence heading into Game 5, and they’ll feed off of their home crowd. 

The Warriors have some injury concerns right now that have just popped up recently.  Andre Iguodala missed Game 4 with a knee injury and is questionable.  Klay Thompson also suffered a knee injury in Game 4 and wasn’t the same when he came back from the locker room.  He will play tonight, but he won’t be very effective, putting a ton of pressure on Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry to pick up the slack. 

The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are now 4-3 against the Warriors this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -115 

The Oakland A’s had gone 6-1 in their previous seven games prior to this series with the Mariners.  But despite allowing just four total runs the last two days, the A’s have gone 0-2 with a pair of one-run losses.  They’ll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight and get a win in Game 3. 

The A’s should be able to get their bats going today.  They’ll be teeing off on Felix Hernandez, who is 5-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Hernandez has been at his worst on the road, going 3-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in five road starts this season. 

Josh Lucas will be making his first start for the A’s.  He has held his own out of the bullpen this season, pitting a 1.35 ERA in five appearances.  He went 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball in relief of Brett Anderson last time out and can be extended further. 

Oakland is 12-4 in home games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are 0-5 in Hernandez’s last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The A’s are 14-4 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Oakland is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the A’s Thursday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +1 

The Boston Celtics return home after a good effort in Game 4 in which they made the Cavaliers earn it.  They still control this series due to having home-court advantage, and I like them to get a victory here in Game 5 tonight. 

The Celtics have gone 9-0 at home in these playoffs and have won 10 in a row at home dating back to the regular season.  They are 36-14 at home this year.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with rabid fans that don’t make it easy on the opposition. 

Boston beat Cleveland 108-83 at home in Game 1 and 107-94 at home in Game 2.  Lebron James is the only one that can be trusted to show up for the Cavs on the road.  Their role players’ games have not traveled well, namely JR Smith, Kyle Korver and George Hill.  They aren’t getting much production from anyone but James on the road in these playoffs. 

The Celtics are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 23-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season, and 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Wednesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -110 

The Boston Red Sox should be much bigger favorites against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.  They have won five of their last six to improve to 33-15 on the season.  They are 28-10 against right-handed starters and hitting .275 while scoring 5.7 runs per game against them. 

Chris Archer is no match for the Red Sox.  The right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Archer is 2-12 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 20 career starts against Boston.  The Red Sox are clearly his nemesis. 

David Price is 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is coming off a complete game in which he gave up just two runs and five base runners in 9 innings against the Orioles.  Price is 4-4 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay. 

Archer is 0-7 (-8.4 units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game on the season over the last three seasons.  The Red Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Boston is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -113

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory tonight over the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  They have lost four in a row coming in, including Game 1 to these Reds, who are just 17-32 on the season.  Look for the Pirates to get back in the win column tonight. 

Chad Kuhl is clearly the better starter in this matchup.  The right-hander has gone 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in his last three.  Kuhl is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts against Cincinnati as well. 

Homer Bailey has been awful this season and is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-2 with a 9.88 ERA and 2.634 WHIP in his last three.  He faced the Pirates on April 5th and gave up 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 2-5 loss in Pittsburgh. 

The Reds are 1-9 in Bailey’s 10 starts this season.  Cincinnati is 4-17 in Bailey’s last 21 home starts.  The Pirates are 5-1 in Kuhl’s last six starts.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Reds are 2-8 in Bailey’s last 10 starts vs. Pittsburgh.  Take the Pirates Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +9 

The Houston Rockets got absolutely embarrassed in Game 3.  They shot just 39.5% while committing 19 turnovers as a team.  They’ll come back with a much better effort in Game 4 tonight to try and square this series at 2-2. 

I like the fact that this line has climbed to +9 after being a 7.5-point spread in Game 3.  This is just a result of public perception after Game 3.  But the Rockets aren’t nearly as bad as they showed, and the Warriors aren’t as good as they showed.  This is still a 3-3 series dating back to the start of the regular season and I view these teams as close to equals, so getting 9 points is too much. 

There is a key injury for the Warriors that is getting overlooked as well.  Andre Iguodala is doubtful with a knee injury.  He is the most underrated player on this team, and he even won NBA Finals MVP a few years back.  He does all the little things that go unnoticed.  Not having him on defense will make the Warriors extremely vulnerable on switches.  The Rockets will take advantage. 

The Warriors are 1-10 ATS in Tuesday games this season.  Golden State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Mike D’Antoni is 19-6 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days as the coach of Houston.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -126 

The Pittsburgh Pirates (26-20) head into this series with the Cincinnati Reds (16-32) highly motivated for a victory.  They lost three straight to the Padres over the weekend, and they certainly want to get back in the win column here against the lowly Reds. 

The Pirates have the clear advantage on the mound behind Jameson Taillon, who is 2-3 with a 3.97 ERA in nine starts, and 0-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last three.  Taillon is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, pitching 15 shutout innings while allowing only 7 base runners in the process. 

Matt Harvey is still in search of his first victory this season.  He is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in six starts, averaging just 4.8 innings per start.  The Reds have been very cautious with him since acquiring him from the Mets.  Harvey has not pitched into the 5th inning in any of his last two starts.  Harvey is 1-1 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in five career starts against Pittsburgh. 

The Pirates are 7-1 in Taillon’s last eight starts when working on five days of rest.  Pittsburgh is 12-2 in its last 14 when its opponent scores 2 runs or fewer in its previous game.  The Reds have scored a total of seven runs in their last four games.  The Reds are 18-42 in their last 60 games overall.  Cincinnati is 7-24 in its last 31 home games.  The Reds are 1-7 in their last eight games following an off day.  Take the Pirates Tuesday. 

20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -7 

Cleveland improved to 6-1 at home in the playoffs this season with their 116-86 beat down of the Boston Celtics in Game 3.  The Cavaliers have now won six in a row at home and still have work to do here in Game 4 to even this series. 

The road struggles of the Boston Celtics also continued.  The Celtics haven’t lost at home yet, but they’re just 1-5 on the road in the playoffs.  Their only victory came in overtime against the 76ers.  Four of their five losses have come by double-digits. 

Cleveland’s role players have played much better at home in these playoffs.  Kyle Korver, JR Smith and George Hill all had very good games against the Celtics in Game 3.  They even got contributions from Larry Nance and Jordan Clarkson.  They will play well again tonight at home in Game 4. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent that is off a home win scoring 110 points or more are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+125) 

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory at home here against the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of this series.  They were swept by the Dodgers over the weekend.  But now they face the lowly Padres and should be able to win by two runs or more. 

The Nationals certainly have the advantage on the mound in this one behind Gio Gonzalez, who is 4-2 with a 2.22 ERA in eight starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in four home starts.  Gonzalez is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego.  In his last two starts against the Padres, he has given up just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings. 

Robbie Erlin will be making just his second start of the season for San Diego.  The first was not good as he gave up 6 and 8 base runners in 3 innings against the Dodgers on April 16th.  Erlin has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with a massive 16.40 ERA and 2.680 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

San Diego is 3-18 off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Gonzalez is 14-2 when working on 7 or more days’ rest in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Nationals on the Run Line Monday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +8 

The Houston Rockets have been the better team all season over Golden State.  They won two of three meetings during the regular season, and they have been the better team for 3/4 of the first two games of this series.  The only exception was the second half of Game 2, but I don’t expect them to play that poorly again the rest of the series. 

The Rockets made some great adjustments in Game 2 both offensively and defensively.  They put more shooters on the floor in Game 2, and they defended Golden State’s pick and rolls much more effectively.  The end result was a 127-105 blowout victory in their favor. 

The key advantage the Warriors have in this series is targeting Stephen Curry.  They put Curry in numerous pick and rolls until he’s forced to switch on Harden, who keeps torching him time and time again.  This also wears out Curry, who recently returned from an ankle injury.  That’s why Curry has struggled so much on offense in these first two games.  Kevin Durant is the only play for the Warriors who is getting his consistently, but he’s having to do so in one-on-one isolation stuff, which the Rockets will live with. 

The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Houston is 10-3 ATS In its last 13 games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Bet the Rockets in Game 3 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+110) 

It’s safe to say the Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost five straight coming in, including each of the first three against the Rays in this series.  They will be desperate to avoid the sweep today. 

I like the Angels’ chances of winning by two runs or more today behind Shohei Ohtani.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in six starts with 43 K’s in 32 2/3 innings.  His two best starts this season have come on Sunday afternoon home starts.  He is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in three home starts this year. 

Lifetime reliever Sergio Romo will start for the Rays for a second straight day.  He only pitched one inning yesterday, and the plan will be for one more inning today most likely.  That will force the Rays to unload their bullpen early, which is going to be a big advantage for the Angels. 

The Rays are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last seven Sunday games.  The Rays are 0-5 in their last five during Game 4 of a series.  The Angels are 5-1 in Ohtani’s last six starts.  Los Angeles is 4-0 in Ohtani’s last four Sunday starts.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Sunday. 

20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -6.5 

Lebron James has been in this situation before.  He has come back to win a series down 2-0 twice in six tries.  That’s pretty impressive, and he and his teammates won’t be lacking in confidence at all faced with this situation again. 

Previously, most of those 0-2 deficits came against much better teams than these Boston Celtics.  Give the Celtics credit, they have gotten the most out of their team.  But I think reality is about to set in in Cleveland, starting with Game 3 here Saturday night. 

Lebron has gotten zero help outside anyone not named Kevin Love in this series.  But role players usually play better at home, and you can expect the Kyle Korvers, George Hills and JR Smiths of the world to play much better in Cleveland in Game 3.  Almost all the role players played great in the sweep of Toronto, so they know they are capable. 

Boston hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs, but this young team has struggled on the road.  The Celtics are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road playoff games against the 76ers and Bucks.  Their lone win came in overtime.  This will be their toughest road test yet in Game 3 against a motivated Cavs squad.  Cleveland is 5-1 at home in the playoffs.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.

2018 Preakness Stakes Picks:

Win: No. 7 Justify (1/2)

Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at a 2-year-old.  He did so on a sloppy track and was easily the best horse.  Forecasts are calling for rain all week at Pimlico, so he could get another muddy run.

But it won’t matter either way.  Justify has won all four of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won four races by a combined 21 lengths.  He is going from the identical No. 7 post that he went from in the Kentucky Derby.  He should have an easy path to stalk the leaders again.

Trainer Bob Baffert is big on this horse and stated that he could have raced again the next day after the Derby.  Baffert will be going for a record-tying seventh Preakness victory.  He is 5-0 previously when entering a Kentucky Derby winner into the Preakness.  He won most recently with American Pharoah in 2015, which went on to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  Justify is a clear Triple Crown candidate.

Place: No. 1 Quip (12/1)

If one horse is going to surprise and beat Justify, it’s going to be Quip.  Trainer Rodolphe Brisset decided to bypass the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness because it’s the Triple Crown race that “fits him best,” according to Brisset.

Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and was second in the Arkansas Derby to Kentucky Derby contender Magnum Moon last time out.  He is a speed horse that likes to run close to the front, which makes his No. 1 post a non-issue.  He will sprint out to the lead and try and make Justify and Good Magic uncomfortable behind him.

There’s certainly no guarantee Quip can beat the two favorites, but he will challenge them at the beginning of the race.  And the fact that he was held out of the Derby for the Preakness means he’ll have the fresh legs that could help him stay near the front the entire race.  He should find the board at solid 12/1 odds.

Show:  No. 5 Good Magic  (3/1)

I picked Good Magic (12/1) to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and that’s precisely where he ended up.  There were a lot of reasons to like this horse coming into the Derby, and many of those same reasons apply here.

Good Magic was a champion 2-year-old and has improved with each start.  He got off to a disappointing start this season, but came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.  Underrated trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year.  He is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races, and is an Eclipse Award winner as nation’s top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has the pedigree to be a contender.  Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He has already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator finished second in the Derby.  Hard Spun, his damnsire, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  This is the type of pedigree you want to get behind.

Exacta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic

Trifecta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic, (8) Bravazo

Like the Kentucky Derby, I’m picking three horses for the exacta and four for the Trifecta.  Adding that fourth horse in the Derby really paid off as Audible was my fourth choice and he came in 3rd, getting myself and my clients a big win on the Trifecta.  I think No. 8 Bravazo is the most likely to crack the board if Justify, Quip or Good Magic falters.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -109 

After losing four of their last five, the Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers.  They should get that win at a very nice value of basically even money at home Saturday. 

The 23-year-old phenom Fernando Romero gets the ball for the Twins tonight.  He is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three starts this season while striking out 20 batters in 16 2/3 innings.  He is the future of the franchise. 

Freddy Peralta was awesome in his debut for the Brewers last time out against the Rockies.  But he’s getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He hasn’t proven anything yet and certainly is no better than Romero. 

The Brewers are 23-47 in their last 70 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Twins are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 15-5 in its last 20 interleague games overall.  Take the Twins Saturday.

2018 Preakness Stakes Picks:

Win: No. 7 Justify (1/2)

Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at a 2-year-old.  He did so on a sloppy track and was easily the best horse.  Forecasts are calling for rain all week at Pimlico, so he could get another muddy run.

But it won’t matter either way.  Justify has won all four of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won four races by a combined 21 lengths.  He is going from the identical No. 7 post that he went from in the Kentucky Derby.  He should have an easy path to stalk the leaders again.

Trainer Bob Baffert is big on this horse and stated that he could have raced again the next day after the Derby.  Baffert will be going for a record-tying seventh Preakness victory.  He is 5-0 previously when entering a Kentucky Derby winner into the Preakness.  He won most recently with American Pharoah in 2015, which went on to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  Justify is a clear Triple Crown candidate.

Place: No. 1 Quip (12/1)

If one horse is going to surprise and beat Justify, it’s going to be Quip.  Trainer Rodolphe Brisset decided to bypass the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness because it’s the Triple Crown race that “fits him best,” according to Brisset.

Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and was second in the Arkansas Derby to Kentucky Derby contender Magnum Moon last time out.  He is a speed horse that likes to run close to the front, which makes his No. 1 post a non-issue.  He will sprint out to the lead and try and make Justify and Good Magic uncomfortable behind him.

There’s certainly no guarantee Quip can beat the two favorites, but he will challenge them at the beginning of the race.  And the fact that he was held out of the Derby for the Preakness means he’ll have the fresh legs that could help him stay near the front the entire race.  He should find the board at solid 12/1 odds.

Show:  No. 5 Good Magic  (3/1)

I picked Good Magic (12/1) to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and that’s precisely where he ended up.  There were a lot of reasons to like this horse coming into the Derby, and many of those same reasons apply here.

Good Magic was a champion 2-year-old and has improved with each start.  He got off to a disappointing start this season, but came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.  Underrated trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year.  He is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races, and is an Eclipse Award winner as nation’s top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has the pedigree to be a contender.  Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He has already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator finished second in the Derby.  Hard Spun, his damnsire, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  This is the type of pedigree you want to get behind.

Exacta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic

Trifecta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic, (8) Bravazo

Like the Kentucky Derby, I’m picking three horses for the exacta and four for the Trifecta.  Adding that fourth horse in the Derby really paid off as Audible was my fourth choice and he came in 3rd, getting myself and my clients a big win on the Trifecta.  I think No. 8 Bravazo is the most likely to crack the board if Justify, Quip or Good Magic falters.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -110

The St. Louis Cardinals come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four of their last five, including Game 1 of this series to the Phillies.  I fully expect them to get back in the win column at a nice value at nearly even money tonight. 

Starter Michael Wacha has been solid this season, going 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA in eight starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five starts.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts against the Phillies as well. 

Jake Arrieta has been very good at home for the Phillies, but he’s just 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in three road starts.  Arrieta is also 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts against St. Louis, giving up 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings. 

The Phillies are 16-42 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 25-57 in its last 81 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven starts.  St. Louis is 27-11 in its last 38 during game 2 of a series.  The Cardinals are 40-19 in Wacha’s last 59 home starts.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Wacha’s last 10 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Rockies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +129 

I’m confused at the fact that the Rockies are underdogs to the Giants today.  For starters, the Rockies had yesterday off while the Giants hosted the Reds and lost.  So they have the advantage of rest coming in. 

But most importantly, the Rockies have the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Chad Bettis is a great story as a cancer survivor.  He’s pitching like today will be his last day this season.  Bettis is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five road starts.  Bettis has held the Giants to just 3 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. 

Jeff Samardzija remains one of the worst starters in baseball, and he has been over the past few seasons.  Samardzija is 1-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.30 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two home starts.  The right-hander has lost five of his last six decisions against the Rockies.  He is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA in his last four starts against Colorado, giving up 21 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. 

Colorado is 11-4 (+12.7 units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Rockies are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  Colorado is 25-12 in Bettis’ last 37 starts.  The Rockies are 4-1 in Bettis’ last five road starts.  The Giants are 1-6 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 2-7 in Samardzija’s last nine starts, including 1-5 in his last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rockies Thursday. 

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -1 

The Houston Rockets are in must-win mode in Game 2 tonight.  They cannot afford to go back to Golden State down 0-2, or this series is over.  So look for their best effort here tonight, which will be good enough to get a win. 

The Rockets bogged down in the second half of Game 1.  I expect them to make the proper adjustments.  They committed too many turnovers, which led to easy layups on the other end for Golden State.  Look for them to clean that up, and to get more movement from everyone else around James Harden and Chris Paul to make it more difficult on Golden State’s defense. 

Plays on favorites (Houston) - revenging a loss by 10 points more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 117-69 (62.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) 

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They have lost the first two games of this series to Oakland and will be looking to avoid a rare sweep at home.  I think they get the job done by two runs or more with their ace on the mound. 

Chris Sale gets the ball for the Red Sox.  He is 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in three home starts.  Sale is also 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland. 

Trevor Cahill has pitched well in limited action at home, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two road starts this season.  Cahill is also 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. 

Sale is 32-7 vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Boston is 29-5 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last two years.  It is winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland +1 

After getting embarrassed 83-108 in Game 1 Sunday, the Cleveland Cavaliers will respond in a big way here Tuesday night in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game and grab home-court advantage for the series. 

The Cavs shot just 36% as a team in Game 1, including a woeful 4-of-26 (15.4%) from 3-point range.  They had been on fire from distance in the Toronto series, so it was an aberration.  They were probably rusty after sweeping the Raptors and getting five days off in between games.  The rust will be there no longer. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Cleveland is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Boston.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost five straight coming in, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Nationals over the weekend.  They will get back in the win column in Game 1 of this series with the Brewers Monday. 

Pat Corbin has been dominant this season, going 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in eight starts with 67 K’s in 51 innings.  Corbin has been lights out at home, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.588 WHIP in five starts. 

Junior Guerra is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He got off to a fast start this season in his first three outings, but that was an aberration.  He has come back down to reality of late, going 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Arizona is 9-1 off four or more consecutive home games this season.  The Diamondbacks are 16-5 in Corbin’s last 21 home starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Guerra’s last five road starts.  Milwaukee is 0-4 in Guerra’s last four starts vs. a team with winning record.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1 

The Houston Rockets built their team to compete with the Warriors.  They executed it to perfection during the regular season as they snagged the No. 1 seed to earn home-court advantage, which gives them their best chance to dethrone the champs. 

We got a taste of what the Rockets could do during the regular season against the Warriors.  In fact, the Rockets won two of three meetings despite being underdogs in all three.  They can certainly score with the Warriors, and their defense is vastly improved over a year ago with both Chris Paul and Clint Capela playing huge roles on that end. 

While the Warriors have a tremendous starting five, their bench leaves a lot to be desired.  There’s no question that the Rockets will have the advantage in this series when the starting five aren’t on the floor for the Warriors.  And they typically only play 20 minutes per game or less together. 

The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Golden State is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Rockets Monday. 

15* Nationals/Diamondbacks ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Arizona -125

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Washington Nationals.  They have lost four straight, including the first three of this series, and desperately want to avoid the sweep. 

Zack Godley will lead the Diamondbacks to victory.  He has gone 4-2 with a 3.82 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three home starts. 

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He has pitched well in his five starts this season, but it’s a small sample size and has mostly come against weak lineups. 

Hellickson has never beaten the Diamondbacks.  He is 0-3 (0-5 against the money line) with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against Arizona.  You can take this never lost system backing Arizona straight to the bank tonight.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a different team in these playoffs.  Lebron James is playing like the MVP he is, and the role players like Kyle Korver, JR Smith and Kevin Love have really stepped up and knocked down open shot after open shot. 

On paper, this is a complete mismatch.  The Cavs are by far the superior team talent-wise.  The 76ers were too last series, but the youth of Philadelphia really showed.  Boston won the last five minutes of the first half and the 4th quarter almost every single game. 

That won’t happen against the Cavaliers, who are a much more veteran squad and used to making it to the NBA Finals at this point.  Brad Stevens has gotten the Celtics this far, and while I have a ton of respect for him, not even he can conjure up a game plan that’s going to be able to stop Lebron and company. 

The Cavs are 10-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 51-26 ATS in its last 77 when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days. 

Plays against home underdogs (Boston) - revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more, when they’re off a close home win by 3 points or less are 34-8 (81%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -128 

The Atlanta Braves are playing their best baseball on the road this season.  They are 14-7 (+10 units) on the highway and have won 10 of their last 11 away from home overall. 

The Marlins aren’t going to offer much resistance today.  They have lost four straight while getting outscored 11-40 in the process.  They are now just 13-24 on the season, hitting .223 and scoring 3.4 runs per game as a team. 

Brandon McCarthy should be able to shut down this weak Marlins’ lineup.  McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in four road starts this season.  He has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Daniel Straily is off to a rough start this season.  He has battled injury and has made just two starts, going 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.125 WHIP.  Straily is also 2-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta. 

The Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.  Atlanta is 4-0 in McCarthy’s last four starts vs. NL East opponents.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last six vs. NL East foes.  Atlanta is 43-21 in the last 64 meetings in Miami.  Bet the Braves Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -107

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value today at basically even money against the lowly Miami Marlins.  The Braves are 13-7 (+9 units) on the road this season.  They are scoring 5.4 RPG this year compared to 3.4 RPG by the Marlins, so they clearly have the superior offense, especially with their top two prospects now in the lineup. 

Mike Foltynewicz is having a solid season at 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.351 WHIP in seven starts to go along with 43 K’s in 37 innings.  Folty has been at his best on the road, going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in three starts. 

Caleb Smith is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is having a good season at 2-3 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in seven starts, but he’s no better than Folty.  And he certainly isn’t going to get much run support in this one. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven road games.  The Marlins are 0-7 in their last seven after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Atlanta is 6-1 in Folty’s last seven starts against the Marlins.  Bet the Braves Thursday.