12-01-15 |
Old Dominion v. William & Mary -3.5 |
|
48-55 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5
Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year. This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.
Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg). Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16. Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.
William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points. The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive. But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs. That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.
Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State. But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76). The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road. The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.
William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years. The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons. The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The home team won both meetings between these teams last year. The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Take William & Mary Tuesday.
|
11-30-15 |
Blazers +8 v. Clippers |
|
87-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8
This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers. The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota. They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.
But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday. Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days. That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.
The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday. In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.
I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings. They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs. Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less. There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play. The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.
The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games. Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Blazers Monday.
|
11-30-15 |
Warriors v. Jazz +8.5 |
|
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5
The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued right now. They are 18-0 and have covered six straight coming in, and the betting public continues to back them night in and night out. It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points on the road to the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. They aren't a fancy team like the Warriors, but they simply get the job done. They have gone 8-7 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season. I really like this team because they play suffocating defense, giving up just 93.2 points per game.
Last year, the Warriors rolled into Sal Lake City in their final meeting and lost 100-110 despite being 10-point favorites. Utah is now 31-8 straight up in its last 39 home meetings with the Warriors.
Utah is 38-24 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on one days' rest. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Jazz Monday.
|
11-30-15 |
Ravens v. Browns -2.5 |
Top |
33-27 |
Loss |
-120 |
104 h 24 m |
Show
|
20* Ravens/Browns ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5
Just about every factor heading into this game favors the Browns laying 2.5 points against the Ravens. I cannot think of one good reason to back the Ravens in this one at this current price. I fully expect the Browns to win this game by at least a field goal, and likely more given everything that’s working in their favor.
For starters, Baltimore is going to be without its three best players on offense. Quarterback Joe Flacco suffered a torn ACL against the Rams last week and is out for the season. Leading rusher Justin Forsett broke his arm against the Rams and is also out for the year. Leading receiver Steve Smith suffered a torn Achilles a few weeks back and is done for the season as well. It’s just too hard to overcome these types of injuries when you’re already not that good.
Secondly, the Browns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Ravens. That should help them regroup and refocus after losing five straight games coming into this one. There’s no question that this team is undervalued right now due to failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. But they’ve faced a very difficult schedule during this stretch with three road games at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and St. Louis, as well as a home meeting with Arizona. They finally can catch their breath here against a much lesser opponent in the Ravens.
Third, it was a blessing in disguise for Johnny Manziel to be out partying last weekend. He has now been demoted as the starter, and in his place will be Josh McCown, who is now healthy after the bye week. This offense has been so much better with McCown under center. He is completing 65.0 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards with 11 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
McCown had a monster day in a 33-30 road win over Baltimore back on October 11 in their first meeting of the season. This game wasn’t as close as the final score as the Browns outgained the Ravens 505-377, or by 128 total yards. McCown threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He should be able to find more success this week against this struggling Baltimore defense.
The Ravens are 1-7-2 ATS in all games this season. Baltimore is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. losing teams. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Ravens. Bet the Browns Monday.
|
11-30-15 |
Thunder -2 v. Hawks |
Top |
100-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2
The Oklahoma City Thunder are finally healthy and playing up to their potential. They have won four straight, the last three of which came once Kevin Durant came back from injury. They have won by 22, 11 and 16 points with Durant back in the lineup.
Now the Thunder have had ample rest heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks. They last played on Friday in a 103-87 home win over the Pistons. They have had two days off in between games. The Hawks, meanwhile, will be playing their 5th game in 7 days after an 88-108 loss at San Antonio on Saturday.
The Thunder will have a huge edge on the board in this one. They lead the NBA in rebounding margin (plus-7.7) and outrebounded Detroit 58-38 last time out while holding Andre Drummond to seven boards. Atlanta was outrebounded 49-43 by San Antonio and ranks near the bottom of the league with a minus-3.7 margin this season.
The Thunder did lose their last trip to Atlanta, but haven't lost consecutive road games to the Hawks since 1993-94 when the franchise was based in Seattle. They have won nine of their last 12 trips to Atlanta. The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road meetings. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|
11-30-15 |
Illinois State +20.5 v. Kentucky |
|
63-75 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +20
Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. A 3-4 start doesn't do this team justice, but the Redbirds are now undervalued as a result. This start can be attributed to a brutal schedule.
The Redbirds lost on the road to San Diego State 60-71 in the opener. They held a 2-point lead over No. 1 Maryland with just six minutes to go before giving way in a 66-77 loss. Those two efforts right there show that the Redbirds can play with the best teams in the country.
Kentucky is clearly overvalued right now due to its No. 1 national ranking. The Wildcats are 6-0, but they are just 2-4 ATS. Five of their six wins have come by 21 points or less, and the lone exception was a 30-point home win over New Jersey Tech. They beat Albany at home by 13, Wright State at home by 15, Boson at home by 20, and South Florida on a neutral court by 21. Illinois State is better than all four of those teams.
"We're playing a good team. Illinois State. I watched their Maryland game. They had Maryland beat. They've got a quick guard, (Paris) Lee. I'm not sure what we'll be able to do with him. They've got a kid, (DeVaughn Akoon-) Purcell, that's scoring 16, 17 a game." Kentucky head coach John Calipari said. "Will be a tough matchup for us depending on how we play. They've got some veteran guys."
Kentucky is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more. The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Take Illinois State Monday.
|
11-29-15 |
Dayton v. Xavier -2 |
|
61-90 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -2
The Xavier Musketeers are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over the Dayton Flyers Sunday in the Championship Game of this Advocare Invitational Tournament. I'll gladly back them as small favorites here when they should be laying more points.
Both teams are undefeated this season, but that's about where the similarities stop. I've been much more impressed with Xavier's 6-0 start than Dayton's 5-0 effort. The Flyers are very fortunate to be 5-0 as their last three wins have come by 3, 5 and 3 points against William & Mary, Iowa and Monmouth.
Xavier has been much more dominant, going 6-0 while winning all 6 games by 9 points or more. That includes a 12-point home win over Missouri, a 16-point road win at Michigan, a 19-point win over Alabama on a neutral court, and a 10-point win over USC on a neutral court.
Dayton is without its top two players from last year. Jordan Sibert (16.1 ppg) graduated, while Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year, but without those two, I have my doubts that the Flyers can get back to the big dance.
Xavier is 9-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last three years. Roll with Xavier Sunday.
|
11-29-15 |
Bucks +6.5 v. Hornets |
|
82-87 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are about as undervalued as they could get right now. That's because they have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall behind some atrocious defense. But this should be a good defensive teams with the length they have at all positions, so it's not going to last.
Plus, Jason Kidd returns from his one-game suspension after being apart from the team in a 90-114 loss at Orlando on Friday. Look for the Bucks to lay it all on the line tonight to turn this around, and for that to really show on the defensive end against the Hornets in this one.
Charlotte had won four straight before a 90-95 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday. The Hornets are overvalued due to this recent run. I certainly expect them to suffer a hangover from that loss to the Cavaliers as they simply couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter. It's going to be hard to want to play the Bucks after facing a team like Cleveland.
Three of the last five meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, with the latest being a 104-94 road win by the Bucks on December 29th of last season. These games typically go down to the wire when the Bucks and Hornets get together, so the 6.5 points her could certainly come into play.
Milwaukee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games with a total set of 200 or more points. The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Bucks Sunday.
|
11-29-15 |
Vikings v. Falcons -1 |
Top |
20-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
73 h 41 m |
Show
|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -1
The Atlanta Falcons have lost three straight and desperately need a win to get back on track as they are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the NFC. I look for them to put forth their most inspired effort of the season Sunday at home against the Minnesota Vikings. In fact, this is my favorite play of the entire 2015 season, which is why it has earned the 25* GAME OF THE YEAR title.
Atlanta's last three losses have all come by three points or less and by a combined seven points. They have beaten themselves by committing eight turnovers, most of which are on Matt Ryan's shoulders. But this guy takes care of the football, and I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything.
The numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL. Indeed, they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 63.8 yards per game. Only the Cardinals, Patriots and Seahawks have been better, and teams like the Broncos (5th), Panthers (6th) and Bengals (7th) are right below them, so it's safe to say that they are in elite company with this all-important yardage differential stat.
The Falcons still boast an elite offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 399.5 yards per game. But it's the improvement they've made defensively under the guidance of head coach Dan Quinn that had made the biggest difference. The Falcons rank a very respectable 11th in the NFL in total defense at 335.7 yards per game, which is only one spot behind the 10th-place Vikings (334.9 YPG).
Minnesota could not possibly be more overvalued right now. It is 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and the betting public has taken notice. Heck, the Vikings were even favored over the Packers last week as the oddsmakers over-adjusted. The Packers won that game 30-13, and now the Vikings are in a serious hangover spot here from that defeat. But somehow they are nearly favored against the Falcons here, and this -1/+1 line indicates the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field. Atlanta is the better team, so the oddsmakers have that wrong.
Minnesota actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by 4.9 yards per game on the season. That's right, the Vikings have somehow managed to go 7-3 despite getting outgained on the year. They are clearly frauds, and their 29th-ranked offense (330.0 yards/game) leaves a lot to be desired.
Teddy Bridgewater has an 8-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season and is pretty much a liability. The Vikings rely mostly on the run to move the football, which makes this an excellent matchup for the Falcons. Indeed, the Falcons rank 1st in the league against the run, giving up just 87.4 yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. This couldn't possibly a worse matchup for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.
Because they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, the Falcons couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now, either. Now all they have to do is win the game at home to cover the number because there are essentially no points involved. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, so do not be shy with your wagers. It's also worth noting that the home team has won four of the last five meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|
11-28-15 |
Illinois v. Iowa State -8.5 |
|
73-84 |
Win
|
102 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country. They are currently ranked No. 4 after their 4-0 start that has seen them dominate the competition. First-year head coach Steve Prohm stepped into a great situation with four returning starters, and everyone has bought in as he has been playing pretty much the same system that Fred Hoiberg did before him, only he emphasizes defense more.
The Cyclones are hitting on all cylinders offensively. They are scoring 89.0 points per game on 53.0% shooting and 43.5% from 3-point range. They average 20 assists per game as they simply share the ball as well as anyone in the country. Defensively, they only give up 66.5 points per game on 37.8% shooting, allowing just 11 assists per game to compare.
Illinois is clearly one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a 3-3 start this season. It has lost to North Florida (81-93) and Chattanooga (77-81) at home, and needed a buzzer-beater to beat Chicago State 82-79 at home. That gives these teams a couple common opponents.
Iowa State beat Chicago State 106-64 at home, or by 42 points. Iowa State also beat Chattanooga 83-63 at home, or by 20 points. Given those results compared to Illinois, it's easy to see why I like Iowa State to cover this generous 8.5-point spread. The Cyclones continued to play well yesterday in a 99-77 win over VA Tech.
The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. They continue to roll against the overmatched Fighting Illini today. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Raptors -2.5 v. Wizards |
|
84-82 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5
The Toronto Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year. They are 10-6 and have won three straight with an 11-point road win over the Lakers, an 11-point road win over the Clippers, and a 4-point home win over the Cavaliers. They have given up an average of just 90.8 points per game in their last four as they have picked it up defensively.
The Wizards are scuffling right now. They fell to 6-7 with their 78-111 loss to Boston on Friday. They've allowed an average of 115.6 points per game in their losses this season as they clearly aren't putting enough emphasis on defense. It appears that coach Randy Wittman is losing his team.
The Raptors want revenge after getting swept in four games in their opening round series to the Wizards in last year's playoffs. I like their chances given the situation. Toronto has had two days off having last played on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Washington will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. I'll take the more rested, more motivated team in this one.
Plays against home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Washington is 5-16 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.
The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 9-1 ATS when the total is 200 or more this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. These five trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Saturday
|
11-28-15 |
Penn State +10.5 v. Michigan State |
Top |
16-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45
The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.
This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.
Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.
Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.
While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.
Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.
I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State. It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor. Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense. The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games. The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games. The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November. Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Penn State v. Michigan State UNDER 45 |
Top |
16-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45
The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.
This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.
Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.
Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.
While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.
Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.
I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State. It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor. Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense. The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games. The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games. The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November. Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Northwestern v. Illinois +3.5 |
|
24-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois +3.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini have done a great job of getting into bowl contention this season despite all of the turmoil with the firing of their head coach. At 5-6, they need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they will certainly be laying it all on the line this week against Northwestern.
Despite being 5-6 compared to 9-2 for Northwestern, I would actually argue that Illinois is the better team this season. Its offense averages 5.0 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.1 per play, and its defense gives up 4.9 per play against offenses that average 5.5 per play. So the Fighting Illini actually have a great defense that is allow 0.6 yards per play less than their opponents average.
Northwestern's offense is atrocious, averaging just 4.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.3 per play. The Wildcats do have a great defense that allows 4.5 per play against opponents that average 5.4 per play. But it's clear that the Fighting Illini have faced the more difficult schedule this season.
Northwestern is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion. It is ranked 17th despite the fact that the Football Power Index shows that it is just the 55th-best team in the country when you factor in all the numbers. But the Wildcats are overvalued due to their fluke win over Wisconsin last week. The Badgers had three touchdowns called back by penalties and committed five turnovers, yet still only lost 7-13.
That sets the Wildcats up for a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off that big win over the Badgers, but they still can't win the Big Ten West because Iowa already clinched it. The Wildcats want to have a 10-win season, but they'll get their chance in the bowl game. The fact of the matter is that Illinois simply wants this game more just to get bowl eligible.
Illinois has won three of its last five meetings with Northwestern with one of its losses coming by a field goal. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Take Illinois Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Iowa State +14 v. West Virginia |
|
6-30 |
Loss |
-102 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +14
The Iowa State Cyclones are probably the best 3-win team in the country. They have a number of heartbreaking losses this season, not the least of which have come the last two weeks. They blew a 24-7 lead to Oklahoma State and lost 31-35. They also blew a 35-14 lead to Kansas State and lost 35-38.
Those two results led to the firing of head coach Paul Rhoads. But the school was nice enough to let Rhoads coach out the season, and now this will be his final game with the Cyclones. These players love Rhoads, and they have to be disappointed that they didn't get the job done for him in close games this year. But they have one final chance to reward him with a win, and I look for them to be laying it all on the line for him against West Virginia this weekend.
The Mountaineers come in overvalued due to having covered the spread in their last two contests. They won 38-20 over Texas, but they were outgained by 60 yards by the Longhorns. This game was much closer than the final score showed, but the Longhorns gave it away by committing five turnovers. Iowa State beat Texas 24-0 a few weeks back and outgained the Longhorns by 222 total yards.
Iowa State has played West Virginia extremely tough in their three meetings as Big 12 opponents. All three were decided by 13 points or less, and the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. Iowa State won 52-44 (OT) as 7.5-point road dogs in 2013. Last year, it was a 27-24 game in the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers outscored the Cyclones 10-0 in the final period to win 37-24. No question the Cyclones want revenge from that game as well.
West Virginia is 1-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons. The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Southern Miss +5.5 v. Louisiana Tech |
|
58-24 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +5.5
Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football. The Golden Eagles have gone 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their 11 games this year. Their great play has put them in a position to where if they win their regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, they will be playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.
The Golden Eagles continue to be undervalued here as 5.5-point road underdogs to the Bulldogs. Sure, the Bulldogs are also 8-3 and are playing for the same thing, but it's clear to me that when you look at the numbers against common opponents that the Bulldogs should not be favored.
Both teams have played the same five opponents this season. Southern Miss is 4-1 against them outscoring them by 23.0 points per game and outgaining them by 240.4 yards per game. Louisiana Tech is 4-1 against those same five teams, but only outscoring them by 9.6 points per game and outgaining them by 92.6 yards per game. This really shows that the Golden Eagles are by far the superior team.
Southern Miss is 7-0 ATS off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons. The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet Southern Miss Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Virginia Tech v. Virginia UNDER 51 |
|
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VA Tech/Virginia UNDER 51
The intensity level in this rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech is always high. It usually leads to a defensive battle when they get together. The intensity level will certainly be high for Virginia Tech, which hopes to send Frank Beamer out on a winning note and a bowl berth. Virginia wants to beat the head coach that has tormented the Cavaliers through the years, though.
A quick look at the recent head-to-head results shows that there's value with the UNDER 51 here. The Hokies and Cavaliers have combined for 44 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings. They have average just 35.8 combined points in their last five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 51.
Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech has simply shut down Virginia. The Cavaliers have scored 21 or fewer points in each of the last 11 meetings. They have been held to 14 or less in nine of those 11 meetings. The Hokies have another elite defense this season and should do their part in helping aid the UNDER.
The downfall for Beamer and company in recent years has been on offense. They are only averaging 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season as this is a below-average unit once again. The Cavaliers are pretty much on par with the Hokies offensively at 378 yards per game and 5.5 per play.
Against other good defensive teams, both squads have been prone to the UNDER. The Hokies lost 13-17 to Pittsburgh for 30 combined points, beat Boston College 26-10 for 36 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 23-21 for 44 combined points. The Cavaliers lost to Pitt 19-26 for 35 combines points, lost to UNC 13-26 for 39 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 27-21 for 48 combined points.
VA Tech is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. teams who give up 6.25 or more yards per play. The Hokies are 12-3 to the UNDER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Virginia is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games overall. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Cavaliers last 16 conference games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
11-28-15 |
Louisville v. Kentucky +6.5 |
Top |
38-24 |
Loss |
-112 |
13 h 7 m |
Show
|
20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +6.5
The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in the exact same position as last year. They were 5-6 going into the Governor's Cup battle with Louisville needing a win to become bowl eligible. They lost a gut-wrencher 44-40 at Louisville as 13.5-point underdogs. They even had the lead with less than three minutes to play before giving up a game-winning touchdown to the Cardinals with 2:47 left.
I have to think that the Wildcats aren't going to fall short again this season. This is the best team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky, and I believe the Wildcats will get the job done at home this time around. It also helps that Louisville is clearly not as good as it was last season at just 6-5 on the year.
Kentucky got some confidence with a 58-10 beat down of Charlotte last week, which pretty much serves as a bye week heading into this game. Louisville, meanwhile, played a taxing 34-45 loss at Pittsburgh in which the Cardinals gave up 42 points in the first half. They gave up 31 points to an awful Virginia offense the previous week as well. This team has no business even being favored with how poorly the defense is playing.
Louisville is 2-3 on the road this season with a 7-point win at NC State and a 1-point win at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites. Those two wins are far from impressive. Kentucky is 4-3 at home this season with a 3-point loss to Auburn and a 5-point loss to Florida for two of its losses. It has only been beaten by this 6-point margin once at home in seven games this season.
Louisville is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. Kentucky is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games. Take Kentucky Saturday.
|
11-27-15 |
Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 196.5 |
|
91-80 |
Loss |
-103 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 196.5
The books have been forced to set this total lower than it should be because the Spurs come in having gone under the total in four straight games. That has provided us with some excellent line value to swoop in and back the over as the Spurs take on the Denver Nuggets tonight.
The Nuuggets are a high-scoring, fast-paced team that plays little defense. They have scored 103 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall, and they have allowed at least 98 points in 10 straight games, including 109 or more in each of their last four. What I love about this over is that the Nuggets will control the tempo because they're playing at home.
I also love the head-to-head stats between these teams that shows this total is too low. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the Nuggets and Spurs combining for 207, 216, 231 & 208 points. That's an average of 215.5 combined points per game, which is 19 points more than this 196.5-point total. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|
11-27-15 |
Bulls v. Pacers -2.5 |
Top |
92-104 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Indiana Pacers have been the best team in the NBA over the past couple weeks. They are shooting a league-best 41.6 percent from 3-point range this season and have won nine of 11 games this month.
Paul George scored 40 points and hit seven 3-pointers in a 123-106 win Tuesday at Washington. C.J. Miles hit eight and scored 32 points. It's clear right now that this team is hitting on ally cylinders offensively, scoring 112, 123 and 123 points in its last three games overall.
Indiana wants revenge from a 95-96 loss at Chicago on November 16, which was only its 2nd loss in its last 11 games. The other was a narrow 97-101 road loss at Cleveland. The Pacers are 5-0 at home during this stretch and should improve to 6-0 in their last six home games with a win Friday.
The home team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall. The Pacers are 31-11 in their last 42 home meetings with the Bulls. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Chicago is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games following a road win.
Indiana is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season. The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Indiana. Bet the Pacers Friday.
|
11-27-15 |
Heat v. Knicks +2 |
|
97-78 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +2
The New York Knicks want revenge from a 78-95 road loss at Miami Monday night just four days ago. That loss had followed up a 4-game winning streak that featured road wins over both the Thunder and Rockets. The Knicks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.
The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 9-5 start to the season. But they have played one of the softest schedules in the NBA, and a home-heavy schedule at that. The Heat have played 10 home games compared to just four road games. They are 1-3 on the road this season.
I used this theory that the Heat are overvalued when I faded them in an 81-104 road loss to Detroit on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade them again as there's no way they should be a road favorite over the Knicks here, especially with the Knicks having revenge in mind, thus they'll be the more motivated team.
New York is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season. Miami is 2-13 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games coming in over the last two seasons. The Knicks are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after coming off a 4-game road trip or longer. Take the Knicks Friday.
|
11-27-15 |
Washington State v. Washington -7 |
Top |
10-45 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -7
You're going to see an amped up Washington Huskies team take the field this afternoon in the Apple Cup against Washington State. The Huskies are fighting to become bowl eligible as they are just 5-6 on the season with one game to go. I fully expect them to use this motivation to roll to victory at home Friday afternoon.
Washington is one of the best teams in the country to have a losing record right now. I have been especially impressed with the way the Huskies have been playing of late as they just continue to get better with each passing week under Chris Petersen.
Washington is coming off a 52-7 road win at Oregon State last week. It also beat Arizona 49-3 at home four weeks ago. The Huskies lost the two games in between, but shouldn't have. They committed a combined 8 turnovers in losses to Utah and Arizona State. They actually outgained the Utes by 35 yards in a 23-34 home loss, and outgained Arizona State by 150 yards in a 17-27 road loss.
This Washington offense has really been lighting it up behind the steady play of freshman Jake Browning. The Huskies had 468 yards against Arizona, 547 against Arizona State, and 482 against Oregon State in three of its last four contests. They also had 381 yards against Utah during this stretch, which isn't a bad output against that defense.
Washington State is overvalued right now due to going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Huskies' latest cover was a 27-3 home win over Colorado and its backup quarterback. But now the Cougars will likely be playing with a backup quarterback of their own.
Starter Luke Falk was carried off the field on a backboard last Saturday in the third quarter against Colorado. He has a concussion, and it's unlikely he's going to be able to play on a short week. He's currently listed as doubtful, though head coach Mike Leach has stated he'll make the final decision right before the game.
The chances are that Falk won't be able to go, and now Peyton Bender will make his first collegiate start in a hostile atmosphere. Bender went 13 of 22 for 133 yards, one touchdown, one interception and another throw that should have been picked off in relief duty against Colorado last week.
The difference in this game is going to be defense. The Huskies give up 18.5 points, 352.7 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.5 points, 425 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The Cougars give up 27.4 points, 421 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season.
Washington has won each of its last two meetings with Washington State and five of the last six overall with all five wins coming by a touchdown or more. The only loss came in overtime at Washington State in 2012. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Washington Friday.
|
11-27-15 |
Arkansas State +23.5 v. Baylor |
|
72-94 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +23.5
I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year. In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back. Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.
Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg LY) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg LY) are also two studs who are back. But two guys who have been really playing well that aren't returning starters are Devin Carter (14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Donte Thomas (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.4 apg).
Arkansas State and Baylor have a couple common opponents that really make me think the Red Wolves can easily stay within 23.5 of the Bears today. They are Jackson State and Oregon. Arkansas State beat Jackson State by 9 at home and lost to Oregon by 23 on the road. Baylor beat Jackson State by 17 at home and lost to Oregon by 7 on the road.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game, on Friday nights are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1997. The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Arkansas State Friday.
|
11-26-15 |
Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 72.5 |
Top |
48-45 |
Loss |
-106 |
33 h 60 m |
Show
|
20* Texas Tech/Texas Thanksgiving Night No-Brainer on UNDER 72.5
I don’t see a ton of value on the side in this game as both of these teams are very unpredictable. If I had to choose a side, I would take Texas because it is better than its record and has outgained four of its last five opponents. Plus the fact that the Longhorns are 6-0 in the last six meetings and just seem to have the Red Raiders figured out.
Instead, I see a ton of value with the UNDER in this game for many of the same reasons I like Texas. I look for the Longhorns to utilize their running game to move the chains and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field for the majority of this game. I also believe the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow down this Red Raider attack.
Texas has been playing some great defense of late. It has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of its last five games. That includes 17 points against Oklahoma in a 24-17 upset win. The only exception was a 20-38 loss to West Virginia, but those 38 points for the Mountaineers were very fluky. The Longhorns set the Mountaineers up for several easy scores by committing five turnovers. They actually held WVU to just 379 total yards in the loss.
But this Texas offense isn’t very good, either. The Longhorns have been held to 24 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. The only exception came against Kansas when they scored 59 points. But almost everyone is lighting up that awful Kansas defense this year. The Longhorns hardly even look to throw the ball as they average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to just 21 passing. That’s going to keep the clock moving in this one.
Texas Tech is 3-1 to the UNDER in true road games this season. It combined for 59 points with Arkansas with a 68-point total. It combined for 50 points with Kansas with a 74-point total. It combined for 90 points against Oklahoma for the only over on the road. The Red Raiders also combined for 57 points with West Virginia with an 80.5-point total in that game.
Texas’ 10 totals this season have been 48, 49, 58, 62, 72, 60, 47.5, 50, 52 and 52 points. As you can see, this 72.5-point total is the largest total set in a Texas game this season. There was only one larger than 62, and that was a 72-point total against TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game 50-7 for 57 combined points as it went well UNDER the total. This just kind of shows you that there’s some serious value with the UNDER here.
The head-to-head history also shows value with the UNDER. Indeed, Texas Tech and Texas have combined for 72 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2008. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 47, 57, 53, 72, 38 and 58 points. That’s an average of 54.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than this posted total of 72.5.
The UNDER is 22-8 in Longhorns last 30 conference games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 home games. Texas is 14-2 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years. I also like the fact that both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is going to favor the defenses. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys +1 |
Top |
33-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 35 m |
Show
|
25* NFL Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +1 Carolina's 10-0 start will come to a screeching halt on Thursday. The Dallas Cowboys are the real deal with Tony Romo at quarterback, going 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him. But they were at least competitive during their 7-game losing streak as five of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less. That's because their defense is one of the better stop units in the league, and all this team was missing was a quarterback.
The Cowboys racked up 386 total yards in their 24-14 win at Miami last week. They even overcame a couple of questionable interceptions from Romo as he shook off the rust, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Darren McFadden also chipped in 129 rushing yards behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. This is now as complete a team as there is in the NFL with Romo back under center.
But the credit in the Miami win has to go to the Cowboys' defense. They limited the Dolphins to just 210 total yards as they simply could not get anything going. The defense is only giving up 335.5 yards per game against opponents that average 376 yards per game, holding them to 40 yards below their season averages. Expect the Cowboys to really control the time of possession now with Romo back, which is only going to make those defensive numbers even better going forward.
Admittedly, I've underestimated the Panthers this season. I pictured this as about a .500 team coming into the year. But now that the Panthers are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread, there's no question they are overvalued as the betting public has taken notice. This line indicates the Panthers would be favored on a neutral field, and that's not right in my eyes. The Cowboys are by far the superior team now that Romo is back and should be favored on a neutral field, and thus at least a 4-point favorite at home. I believe there's some serious line value here with the Cowboys as a result.
Despite being 3-7, the Cowboys still have a legitimate shot to win the NFC East. They are only two games behind the New York Giants and one game back of the Philadelphia Eagles. They cannot afford a loss here, while the Panthers can afford a loss now that they have a two-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals for home-field advantage in the NFC. They also have a four-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South.
Cam Newton deserves a lot of credit for what he's been able to do with limited weapons on offense, but the fact of the matter is that this is still a below-average offensive team. The Panthers only average 5.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.8 yards per play. They rank a mediocre 15th in the NFL in total offense at 354.2 yards per game as well. This offense will meet its match against Dallas' top-notch defense that has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games.
The Panthers have also benefited from a home-heavy schedule this season. They have only played four road games, and three of those came against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Their only impressive road win came at Seattle by a final of 27-23. But the Seahawks let that game slip away by blowing a double-digit lead in the second half. The Panthers won't be so fortunate this week against a hungry Cowboys team on the road.
Romo is the only quarterback all-time with multiple wins against teams that are 9-0 or better. He beat the 9-0 Indianapolis Colts in the fourth start of his career in 2006. He also beat the 13-0 Saints in Week 15 of the 2009 season. The Cowboys are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games after having lost three of their last four games coming in. Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last five meetings with Carolina dating back to 2005. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|
11-25-15 |
Pelicans +4 v. Suns |
|
120-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +4
The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get more healthy by the day. It has really paid off as they've put together their two best games of the season in their last two contests. I look for them to continue to play well tonight as they did themselves out of an early hole due to the injuries.
It started with a 104-90 home win over the Spurs on November 20 as 7.5-point underdogs. The Pelicans also won 122-116 at home over these same Phoenix Suns on November 22. Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready to face the Suns again.
Phoenix doesn't have the same luxury as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. After losing to the Pelicans, the Suns also went on the road and lost to the Spurs 84-98 the next night. Leading scorer Eric Bledsoe (23.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg) missed that game against the Spurs with a knee injury. Bledson is questionable to return tonight. I like the Pelicans either way, but if Bledsoe sits it would be an added bonus.
Anthony Davis is averaging 31.2 points and 3.0 blocks over the last four games in which he's played at least 20 minutes. Ryan Anderson has been a huge spark, too, averaging 28.3 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last four contests while going 15 of 32 from 3-point range.
The Pelicans have won three of their last four meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by a mere two points. New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.
|
11-25-15 |
Rhode Island v. Maryland -5.5 |
Top |
63-86 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -5.5
You'll be hard-pressed to get the Maryland Terrapins at a better value than we're getting them tonight. They are only 5.5-point favorites over the Rhode Island Rams in this Championship Game of the Cancun Challenge.
The Terrapins are getting a lot of hype because they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country. But they haven't lived up to that hype in terms of the spread. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover as 9-point favorites against Georgetown, as 19.5-point favorites against Ride and as 13-point favorites against Illinois State. I believe they are finally undervalued now as a result.
Still, they have managed to start 4-0, and now they are the smallest favorites (-5.5) they have been all season. The scary part is they aren't shooting the ball well, yet they have a plethora of great shooters. They are only making 30.1 percent of their 3-point shots, down from 37.6 a year ago. It's only a matter of time before they start falling with the talent this team possesses.
Rhode Island was going to be an NCAA Tournament team in my opinion before losing E.C. Matthews to a torn ACL suffered in practice last week. Matthews averaged 16.9 points per game last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans going forward. They were able to get by TCU 66-60 yesterday, but they aren't going to be as fortunate against one of the best teams in the country a night later.
Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents. The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.
The Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take Maryland Wednesday.
|
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks -4 |
|
129-118 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4
Sacramento's best player in DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful to play in this game tonight due to a back injury. I like the Bucks enough at -4 even if he plays that I'd still recommend them, but it's just an added bonus if Cousins sits out like he's supposed to.
Milwaukee is a team to keep your eye on in the upcoming weeks. The Bucks were banged up in the early going, but now they are finally healthy and playing to their potential. That showed in a 109-88 home win over the Detroit Pistons last time out to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which came in road losses to Washington, Cleveland and Indiana. Seven different players scored in double-figures for the Bucks in that win over the Pistons.
Sacramento is just 5-10 this season and has been awful when Cousins hasn't played. The Kings have been particularly poor on the road, going 1-5 while allowing opponents to score 111.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. The Bucks are a respectable 4-3 at home this season and allowing just 42.4% shooting.
The Bucks are 9-1 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls over the last two seasons. The Kings are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 non-conference road games. The Kings are 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bucks are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.
|
11-25-15 |
Heat v. Pistons +1.5 |
Top |
81-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +1.5
The Detroit Pistons have lost two straight and six of their last eight and really need a win here. They are undervalued due to this recent stretch, but they've played a brutal schedule this season. They have played eight of their last 10 games on the road and only five home games all season.
The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 9-4 start to the season. They have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule with 10 home games compared to just three road games. They are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming at Minnesota.
The home team went 3-0 between these teams last year with Detroit winning both of its home meetings with Miami, including a 108-91 victory in its first meeting last year.
The Heat are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points. Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days' rest. The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. Miami is 1-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.
|
11-25-15 |
Knicks v. Magic -1.5 |
|
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5
We're getting the Orlando Magic at a great price tonight as they basically just need to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread against the Knicks. The value here comes from the recent success of the Knocks and the recent poor performance ATS for the Magic.
The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they are overvalued as a result. They did lose 78-95 at Miami last time out and that will be a sign of things to come. The Magic are 1-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall, so they couldn't be more undervalued here.
The Magic have played their best basketball at home this season where they are 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS. They are limiting opponents to just 41.3% shooting at home as their defense has been so much better this year under the guidance of Scott Skiles. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|
11-25-15 |
Arkansas State +21.5 v. Oregon |
|
68-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +21.5
The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued here due to their 4-0 start to the season. They have survived a couple scares from Baylor (74-67) and Valparaiso (73-67) while also beating Jackson State (80-52) and Savannah State (77-59).
Arkansas State is 2-2 with home wins over Lyon (81-37) and Jackson State (78-69), as well as road losses to SIU-Edwardsville (70-79) and Savannah State (75-76). That gives these teams two common opponents, and I believe the results in those two games suggest that the Red Wolves can stay within 21.5 points of the Ducks here.
I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year. In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back. Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (15.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already. Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg) are also two studs who are back.
The Red Wolves are averaging 76.0 points per game this season, which is great for a team not known for its offense. The Red Wolves pride themselves on defense, and that has been the case this year as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from the field.
Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1997. The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Roll with Arkansas State Wednesday.
|
11-24-15 |
Bulls -2.5 v. Blazers |
|
93-88 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls come in well-rested and ready to go. They were last seen losing 94-106 at Golden State after blowing an 11-point lead on Friday. They have since had three days off in between games and will be the fresher team in this showdown with Portland.
It also helps that Derrick Rose is expected to make his return from an ankle injury. Rose missed the Bulls' last two games with a win at Phoenix and a loss at Golden State. He was a full participant in practice on Sunday and this extra time off has helped him recover.
The Bulls are 8-4 this season. The last three times they've lost, they've come back their next game and gotten a win, so they are 3-0 following a loss this season. The Blazers come in overvalued due to two straight wins over the Clippers and Lakers. They had lost seven straight games prior to winning their last two. They also played on Sunday, only having one day off in between games.
Plays against home teams (PORTLAND) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in November games are 39-16 (70.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes. Portland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Take the Bulls Tuesday.
|
11-24-15 |
Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 |
Top |
48-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +23.5
I faded Bowling Green with success last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo as 7-point favorites. I'll fade the Falcons again this week for many of the same reasons as they are way overvalued here as 23.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.
Bowling Green had nothing to play for with two games to go last year because it already clinched the MAC East at that point. It not only lost its final two games, it was also blown out by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. The same thing is happening this season.
Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title two weeks ago with its 41-27 win at Western Michigan. The Falcons failed to show up last week in their 28-44 loss to Toledo as a result, and they certainly won't bring the kind of focus it takes to beat Ball State by 24-plus points in this one.
Ball State is a better team than its 3-8 record would indicate. This is its last chance to prove it, and I expect an inspired effort from the Cardinals in this one as a result. Plus, it's Senior Night for 17 players, so there's no question this team is going to be laying it all on the line to try and get one last win for their senior class.
The Cardinals have been competitive at home this season. They beat UMass 20-10, only lost to Central Michigan 21-23, and lost by 14 to Toledo. They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this season. They also only lost 19-24 at Northwestern as 17.5-point underdogs to prove what they are capable of.
Last year the Cardinals upset Bowling Green 41-24 as 10-point road underdogs. That was the final game of the season when the Falcons had already clinched the MAC East and had nothing to play for. I'm not calling for the upset here again, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit with the state of mind the Cardinals and Falcons are in.
The Cardinals have had some great quarterback play this season from freshman Riley Neal, who has thrown 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon have combined for 128 receptions, 1,565 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Corey Lacanaria (42, 355, 2 TD) has missed the last two games due to suspension, but he's expected to return for this one, giving Neal another weapon.
Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games. Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BALL ST) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1992. Bet Ball State on Senior Night Tuesday.
|
11-24-15 |
Murray State v. Pepperdine -3.5 |
|
59-55 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pepperdine -3.5
I believe Pepperdine to be one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They went 18-14 last year overall and 10-8 in WCC play. They pulled off back-to-back upsets over Saint Mary's and BYU last February. The good news this year? All five starters return.
Back are Jeremy Major (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg LY), Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Atif Russell (5.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg), SHawn Olden (9.2 ppg) and Jett Raines (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg). The Waves are just 2-2 to start this season, but the schedule has been tough so it's understandable.
Their only two losses came on the road as underdogs to Fresno State (66-69) and UCLA (67-81). I was very impressed with what they did against a very solid Duquesne team yesterday in the opener of this Gulf Coast Showcase Tournament. They won 84-70 as 3.5-point favorites behind another great defensive effort. They have held three of their first four opponents to less than 40% shooting.
Murray State is in full-on rebuilding mode this season. They lost head coach Steve Brohm to Iowa State in the offseason, and they lost Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) to the NBA. But that wasn't all they lost. They only returned one starter this year in Jeffery Moss, losing their other four starters.
That does make their 3-1 start kind of impressive, but it's not like they've beaten anybody relevant as their three wins have come against Harris Stowe, Middle Tennessee State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. They lost to the best team they've played with a 52-63 setback at Georgia as 8.5-point dogs.
Plays on a favorite (PEPPERDINE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Murray State is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 vs. very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting to opponents. Pepperdine is 14-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The Waves are 14-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years. Roll with Pepperdine Tuesday.
|
11-23-15 |
East Carolina +14.5 v. San Diego State |
|
54-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on East Carolina +14.5
The East Carolina Pirates are catching way too many points tonight against the San Diego State Aztecs. We'll take advantage and back them as double-digit road underdogs here.
East Carolina is off to an impressive 2-1 start this season. It beat Grambling 61-53 and Charlotte 88-74 at home to open the season. But what really impressed me most is its 62-70 road loss as 20.5-point underdogs at nationally ranked California. The Pirates only shot 32.7% in that game yet found a way to hang around with one of the best teams in the country.
San Diego State has no business laying 14.5 points to East Carolina with what I've seen from it so far. The Aztecs are just 2-2 on the season with an 11-point home win over Illinois State, a 10-point home win over San Diego Christian, a 6-point home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock and a 5-point road loss to Utah.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (E CAROLINA) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1997. The Aztecs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. The Pirates are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with East Carolina Monday.
|
11-23-15 |
Bills +7.5 v. Patriots |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
78 h 58 m |
Show
|
20* Bills/Patriots ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Buffalo +7.5
The New England Patriots are clearly overvalued right now due to their 9-0 start as they remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL. That was evidenced last week as they were fortunate to escape with a 27-26 road win over the New York Giants as 7-point road favorites. The Giants really aren’t very good, and they should have won that game. They outgained the Patriots by 16 yards and racked up 422 yards of total offense in the loss.
One thing that’s getting overlooked here is that the Patriots aren’t going to be as explosive offensively going forward without two of their top three weapons. Dion Lewis is out for the season with a knee injury suffered a few weeks back, and Julian Edelman broke his foot against the Giants last week and now will be out indefinitely.
Lewis had accounted for 622 total yards and was averaging 10.8 yards per reception. Edelman’s 61 receptions leads the team to go along with 692 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Brady is left with a pedestrian group of weapons now on offense. He is great at doing more with less, but the fact of the matter is that Edelman and Lewis made this offense dynamic, but now this is just an above-average bunch.
Tyrod Taylor makes all the difference for the Bills. He returned two weeks ago and led the Bills to a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins. He also had a nice game in a 22-17 road win at the Jets last week. The Bills are 5-2 in games in which Taylor has started, and 0-2 in games he did not start in losses to the Jaguars and Bengals. Taylor is completing 70.5 percent of his passes with an 11-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 243 yards and two scores to give this offense an added dimension with his legs.
Buffalo is 3-0 in true road games this season as well. It won 41-14 at Miami, 22-17 at New York and 14-13 at Tennessee. It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.0 points per game on the road this year. This team just has a knack for playing its best football away from home. Keep in mind that Taylor started in all three of those road wins.
The Bills had one of their best performances of the season in a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins two weeks ago. They were coming off their bye week and really played a complete game. Now, they are essentially getting a mini-bye week here. They played last Thursday against the Jets, giving them three extra days of rest than the Patriots heading into this one. Rex Ryan getting extra time to prepare for the Patriots is a dangerous propositions. He played them tough almost every time when he was with the Jets, so he certainly knows how to game plan for Belichick and company.
Plays on road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East opponents. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four November games. The road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Bills Monday.
|
11-23-15 |
Magic +9 v. Cavs |
|
103-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +9
Off three straight non-covers, the Orlando Magic are showing great value today catching 9 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is one of the most improved teams in the league as they've actually won six of their last 10 games.
Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers are consistently overvalued. That's especially the case now that they have covered two in a row with two straight double-digit wins over the Bucks and Hawks. But they had failed to cover eight in a row prior to their back-to-back covers.
The Cavaliers were already short-handed without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. But now they are also without two starters in Tomofey Mozgov and Mo Williams, so they cannot be expected to win by double-digits given their current state health-wise.
The Magic are 9-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less over the last two seasons. Orlando is 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Orlando. Take the Magic Monday.
|
11-22-15 |
Packers +1 v. Vikings |
|
30-13 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +1
I know the Packers are reeling right now, but I simply trust them more in a big game like this. I also believe it’s impossible that Aaron Rodgers loses a fourth straight game as a starting quarterback. Heck, he hadn’t lost two in a row since his first year in the league in 2008, let alone three. He will rally the troops this week and get the Packers to finally put their best foot forward now that first place is on the line in the division.
Minnesota was one of the most underrated teams in the first half of the season, but after a 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS start, this team is now overrated in my opinion. The Vikings are extremely fortunate to be 7-2 right now because they have won so many close games, and when you look at the numbers, there’s no way this team should be five games over .500.
Would you believe that Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season? Well, that’s the simple truth. Its offense is only averaging 328.7 yards per game, while its defense is giving up 336.6 per contest, so the Vikings are getting outgained by 7.9 yards per game. Those are the types of numbers you would expect from a team that is 4-5 right now instead of 7-2.
There’s no question that the Vikings have a strong running game and defense, but there’s also no denying that the Packers have a massive edge at the quarterback position. Rodgers is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions, so he's not broken. The Vikings have been winning in spite of Teddy Bridgewater, who has thrown for 1,810 yards with only a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio. I’ll back Rodgers in this matchup all day every day.
To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. The Packers are 9-1-1 straight up in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers was hurt and didn’t play in the game that they tied, and the lone loss came back in 2012 in a 34-37 defeat at Minnesota in which Rodges threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns. The Vikings are improved this year, but I don’t believe they’re ready to win this division quite yet.
Rodgers has owned the Vikings, too. In 14 career games against Minnesota, Rodgers is completing 71 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and four interceptions. It's certainly one of his favorites teams in the league to face, and he pretty much just owns the entire NFC North. Green Bay is 39-18 ATS in its last 57 games vs. NFC North opponents. That's not going to change this week.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I believe Green Bay is finally undervalued here as an underdog after losing four straight games against the spread. This is the first time that the Packers have been underdogs all season, and we'll take advantage and grab the points. Take the Packers Sunday.
|
11-22-15 |
Cowboys -1 v. Dolphins |
|
24-14 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Cowboys -1
Despite their seven straight losses for a 2-7 start, the Dallas Cowboys still have a realistic shot of winning the NFC East. That’s because the leader in the division is the New York Giants at 5-5, who 2.5 games ahead of the Cowboys. With seven games to go, you can bet the Cowboys are going to be in must-win mode from here on out to make a run in this weak division.
They certainly like their chances now that Tony Romo is back. They went 2-0 with him in their first two games, and 0-7 without him in their last seven. I’ve been saying it all along that Romo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league, and this start just proves it. All the Cowboys were missing was a quarterback. They’d probably be somewhere around 7-2 if he had played in all nine games, but instead they are 2-7.
The Cowboys have played tough even without Romo and it’s almost impossible that they are 0-7 with how well they’ve played. They have lost two overtime games to the Saints and Eagles, they lost by 4 to Tampa Bay, by 1 to Seattle and by 7 to New York. So, five of their losses have come by a TD or less. Their defense has played well enough to win most of these games, but they just haven’t gotten anything out of their offense. That’s going to change now that Romo is back.
The Miami Dolphins just aren’t very good this season. They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.0 yards per game. They have been thoroughly outplayed in their last three games and should have lost all three. They lost 7-36 at New England and 17-33 at Buffalo, and their 20-19 win over the Eagles last week was a fluke.
They were outgained 289-436 by the Eagles, or by 147 total yards. Sam Bradford got hurt late in that game and the Eagles couldn’t recover. The Dolphins got a blocked punt and a freak tipped pass for a TD that had them coming back from a 16-3 deficit to win. So I’d have to say that the Dan Campbell factor has certainly worn off. Plus, they lost their top pass rusher in Cameron Wake to a season-ending injury against the Patriots, and their defense has not recovered. They are giving up 29.3 points and 431.0 yards per game in their last three contests.
Plays on road teams off seven or more consecutive losses in November games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss with a losing record on the season are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games off a win by 3 points or less. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Dolphins are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games overall. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|
11-22-15 |
Colts v. Falcons -5 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
47 h 55 m |
Show
|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -5
The Atlanta Falcons are extremely motivated for a victory right now. They had their bye last week, and they've had a sour taste in their mouth for two weeks now do to the stench of this 3-game losing streak. Make no mistake about it, the Falcons will be laying it all on the line to get a victory Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
Despite the three consecutive losses, the numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL. They actually rank 3rd in yardage differential behind only the Cardinals and Patriots, outgaining teams by an average of 59.9 yards per game. They rank 5th in total offense at 402.2 yards per game, and their defense is improved this season, ranking 14th at 342.3 yards per game.
The Colts are fortunate to be 4-5 this season because when you look at the numbers, they have been pretty awful. They rank 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.5 yards per game. They average a pedestrian 353.7 yards per game on offense, and they are terrible on defense, ranking 28th in allowing 394.2 yards per game.
Matt Hasselbeck will be starting in place of the injured Andrew Luck. Yes, Hasselbeck is 2-0 as a starter this season, but a closer look shows that the Colts were playing two terrible opponents and were fortunate to win. They needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 16-13 at home and were outgained by 105 yards in that game, 326-431. They also squeaked out a 27-20 road win over the Texans, and were again outgained by 121 yards, 323-444.
They shouldn't have won either of those games when you look at the yardage totals. Now, against one of the best teams they've played this season in the Falcons, Hasselbeck is going to be exposed. This is where you are going to see how much the Colts miss Luck, because Hasselbeck can't keep up with this high-powered Falcons offense. He could keep up with the Jaguars and Texans, but not the Falcons.
Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a road loss are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|
11-21-15 |
Tennessee v. Missouri +7 |
|
19-8 |
Loss |
-106 |
47 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* Tennessee/Missouri SEC East No-Brainer on Missouri +7
I really like the state of mind of the Missouri Tigers right now. Once Gary Pinkel announced last week that this would be his last season, these players really rallied around one another. They pulled off the 20-16 upset as 4.5-point underdogs last week against a good BYU team. Now, this will be Pinkel's final home game as the head coach of the Tigers. There's just going to be a little extra juice with this team given the situation.
This is going to be a night game in the Zoo to boot, and Columbia has been one of the toughest places to play at night over the years. The Tigers (5-5) also still need another win to get bowl eligible, and since their next game is at Arkansas, this is their best chance to get one. I just believe they are going to be putting all their eggs in one basket to get a win for Pinkel and to get bowl eligible.
The Tigers offense has been their reason for their poor record, because their defense is elite, limiting opponents to 14.7 points and 297.7 yards per game. But the offense broke out against BYU for 434 total yards, limiting the Cougars to just 290 in the process. Running back Russell Hansbrough recently returned from injury and had his first 100-yard effort of the season against the Cougars, which is a good sign going forward. Freshman Drew Lock continues to improve, throwing for 244 yards and completing 68 percent of his passes last week.
Tennessee is just kind of going through the motions right now, picking up its sixth win to get bowl eligible last week in a lackluster 24-0 home win over North Texas as 40.5-point favorites. That followed up another sub-par effort in a 27-24 home win over South Carolina as 17-point favorites. I really don't think you can trust this team laying 7 points on the road this week, especially with all that Missouri has to play for here.
This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Tigers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Tennessee as SEC opponents over the last three years. Missouri has actually been an underdog in two of those three games as well. It also won 31-3 in its lone home meeting with Tennessee in 2012.
Missouri is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The Volunteers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Roll with Missouri Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
Bucks v. Pacers -5 |
|
86-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -5
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. After a slow start, they have gone on to go 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their only two losses came on the road to arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference in Cleveland (97-101) and Chicago (95-96) by a combined five points.
The Milwaukee Bucks come in struggling. They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last five games overall, which includes a blowout home loss to Boston (83-99), as well as two blowout road losses to Washington (86-115) and Cleveland (100-115). I don't like their chances of keeping this one close against the Pacers, who come in on two days' rest.
Indiana is 32-10 straight up in its last 42 home meetings with Milwaukee. It has won six of its last seven home meetings with the Bucks with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.
The Pacers are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season. Indiana is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 |
Top |
51-50 |
Loss |
-109 |
47 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -4
The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming on strong in the second half this year just as they did last season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama by a final of 14-27 as 15.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Alabama team that torched Mississippi State 31-6 last weekend.
Coming off that crushing loss to Alabama that ended any hopes of the Bulldogs winning the SEC, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the Razorbacks. They won’t be nearly as jacked up for this game against Arkansas as they were last week against Alabama. I’ll gladly side with the team playing the better football right now as short home favorites.
Arkansas has played a gauntlet of a schedule this year. It had to face Texas Tech and Toledo out of conference, but looking back, that may have been a blessing in disguise as the Razorbacks have been great in SEC play. Believe it or not, they still have a shot to earn at least a share of the SEC West title because they are 4-2 right now within the conference. They have two home games remaining against Mississippi State and Missouri, so 6-2 is very likely. They would need Alabama to lose at Auburn, but in that rivalry game, anything is possible.
Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has taken advantage of a very soft schedule this season, playing Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and LA Tech out of conference. It also drew two of the worst teams from the SEC East in Kentucky and Missouri and beat them both, while Arkansas had to play what I believe is the best team from the East in Tennessee. The Razorbacks beat the Vols 24-20 on the road.
Mississippi State has not fared well against the best three teams that it has played. It lost 19-21 at home to LSU in what was a 21-6 game in the fourth quarter. That’s the same LSU team that Arkansas beat 31-14 on the road last week. Mississippi State also lost 17-30 at Texas A&M, while Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime on a neutral field. And finally, the Bulldogs lost 6-31 at home to Alabama, while Arkansas only lost 14-27 on the road to the Crimson Tide.
As you can see from that previous paragraph, when you compare common opponents, it’s clear that Arkansas is by far the superior team. These teams have played the same four teams this season in Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 1-3 against them scoring just 14.8 points per game and getting outscored by 8.0 points per game, while Arkansas is 2-2 against them scoring 30.0 points per game and outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.
This Arkansas offense is unstoppable right now and may be the best unit in the entire SEC. It is putting up 50.3 points per game during its current four-game winning streak. It scored 54 against Auburn, 63 against Tennessee Martin, 53 against Ole Miss and 31 against LSU. The Razorbacks racked up 605 total yards on Ole Miss and 440 total yards on LSU, which is no small feat and just shows how well they are playing on that side of the ball right now. Mississippi State does not have the firepower to keep up, and its defense has taken a big step back this year.
Arkansas is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt over the past two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This is a huge hangover spot for the Bulldogs off that Alabama loss, so expect the Razorbacks to roll again. Take Arkansas Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
Colorado State -1.5 v. New Mexico |
Top |
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 19 m |
Show
|
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -1.5
New Mexico is in the ultimate letdown spot here. It just clinched a bowl win with a shocking upset of Boise State last week as whopping 31-point underdogs, winning 31-24 on the road. The Lobos have now accomplished their goal of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. That's a huge accomplishment, but now this team is not going to show up at all this week.
Besides, the win over Boise State was extremely fluky. The Lobos were outgained by 225 yards in that game as Boise racked up 638 total yards, but found a way to lose by committing four turnovers. The Lobos are extremely fortunate to be 6-4 because they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season, and they only outgained New Mexico State by 30 yards and Wyoming by 1 yards in two of the games they weren't outgained. The other was the opener against Mississippi Valley State.
New Mexico is getting outgained by an average of 60.9 yards per game on the season. While New Mexico is content with being bowl eligible, Colorado State (5-5) still needs another win to clinch a bowl berth. It will be the more motivated team here as a result. The Rams are clearly the better team as they are outgaining teams by 16.5 yards per game this season, and they've played a tougher schedule than New Mexico to boot.
I really like the way the Rams are playing coming into this game. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat a good Air Force team 38-23 at home, topped Wyoming 26-7 on the road, and beat UNLV 49-35 at home. Yes, they lost 17-41 at home to San Diego State, but the Aztecs are crushing everyone right now. Plus, the Rams gave that game away by committing four turnovers because they were only outgained by 88 yards. It was closer than that final score suggests.
Colorado State owns New Mexico, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The last two haven't even been close. Colorado State won 66-42 as 7-point road favorites in 2013 while racking up 649 yards of offense. The Rams also won 58-20 as 20.5-point home favorites last year, racking up 698 yards and outgaining New Mexico by 342 yards.
Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a home games. New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less. The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game. Don't expect New Mexico to even show up for this one off that win over Boise State. Roll with Colorado State Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
Wake Forest +29 v. Clemson |
|
13-33 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +29
The Clemson Tigers just cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves with their No. 1 ranking in the playoffs. Oddsmakers have been forced to set the spreads in their games too high the last two weeks because of their ranking and the betting public's tendency to back these teams blindly. They haven't lived up to those expectations. After all, all undefeated teams went 1-5 ATS last week, and I expect that trend to continue this week.
Clemson failed to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite two weeks ago against Florida State, winning that game by 10 in what was a tie game entering the 4th quarter. I successfully faded the Tigers in that game, and then again last week when they were massive 30-point favorites over Syracuse on the road. They only beat the Orange 37-27. I'm fading them for a 3rd straight week now that they are overvalued again as 29-point favorites over Wake Forest.
This is a Wake Forest team that is better than its 3-7 record would suggest. It has been competitive in every single game this season outside of a 14-50 loss at North Carolina. All six of its other losses came by 17 points or less. That includes a 16-24 loss to Florida State as 19-point dogs, a 19-20 loss to Louisville as 12-point dogs, and a 7-28 loss at Notre Dame last week as 25.5-point dogs.
That game at Notre Dame really stands out to me. Wake Forest actually outplayed the Fighting Irish in that game. The Demon Deacons had a 340-282 yard edge. That's right, they limited the high-powered Fighting Irish offense to just 282 total yards, 98 of which came on a TD run. They had a 23-15 edge in first downs, but converted just 1 of 4 of their red zone trips and were stopped on the 1-yard line in the 2nd quarter. If they can hang with Notre Dame, they can certainly hang with Clemson.
"I think we realized that we're a more talented team and that we can play with anyone in the country," sophomore quarterback John Wolford said. "It's just a matter of execution, knowing your assignment, just not making stupid plays. Right now we're still young, so for us to be in these games we have to be smart, we have to execute, and coming down to the end of games we have to try and find a way to win."
Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following five or more consecutive straight up wins, only winning by 5.6 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last two seasons. The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss. Clemson doesn't need style points, it just needs a win, which is all it cares about right now. Take Wake Forest Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
North Carolina -6.5 v. Northern Iowa |
|
67-71 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -6.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 ranked team in the country for good reason. They returned four starters and five key reserves from last year's team that made it to the Sweet 16. Even though Marcus Paige is hurt right now, this team can rely on their big men in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to lead the way.
The Tar Heels have opened 3-0 with three blowout home wins over Temple (91-67), Fairfield (92-65) and Wofford (78-58). The balance on this team has been remarkable, but Meeks (16.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Johnson (16.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) have stood out the most. Joel Berry II (15.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) has filled in nicely for Paige, and Nate Britt (13.0 ppg) is shooting 66.7% from 3-point range in the early going.
Northern Iowa is overvalued to start the season after a 31-4 campaign last year and a Missouri Valley Tournament Championship. But the Panthers had all 5 starters back last year, and now they just have 2 returning. They lose MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle (15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and two other starters in Melvin Singleton and Deon Mitchell. The Panthers lost to Colorado State 78-84 at home before beating Stephen F. Austin 70-60 at home. Now they face the toughest opponent they will all season, and I see no way they are able to stay within 6.5 points of the Tar Heels.
Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. UNC is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons. Take North Carolina Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
Michigan v. Penn State +4 |
|
28-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 50 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +4
There's a lot to love about Penn State in this game. The Nittany Lions are coming off their bye week following a last-second 21-23 loss at Northwestern. They have had two weeks to stew over that defeat, and there's no question that they're be chomping at the bit to hit the field in Happy Valley Saturday. The bye has also given players like stud RB Saquon Barkley a chance to heal his injured ankle.
Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a double-overtime win at Indiana last week and will be fatigued. In fact, the Wolverines' last two road games against unranked opponents have gone down to the wire, and they were outplayed in both but found a way to win. They won at Minnesota thanks to a goal-line stand despite getting outgained 461-296 by the Golden Gophers. They also needed a fourth-and-goal TD pass on the last play of regulation to force OT against Indiana last week. They won't be so fortunate in Happy Valley this weekend.
This is also a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have "The Game" on deck next week against Ohio State. They won't be able to help but look ahead to that contest. I think the Nittany Lions are catching them at the perfect time all things considered, and I'm not so sure that Penn State isn't the better team.
After all, Happy Valley is a place where opposing teams have gone to die this season. Indeed, Penn State is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 20.2 points per game. Their defense has been suffocating at home, allowing just 9.8 points and 252.5 yards per game. Their offense has gotten it going at home, averaging 30.0 points per game. The Nittany Lions are also 3-0 straight up in their last three home meetings with Michigan.
Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Nittany Lions are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss. The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Penn State Saturday.
|
11-21-15 |
Purdue +23 v. Iowa |
Top |
20-40 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 50 m |
Show
|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +23
The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now. They are currently No. 5 in the playoff rankings due to their 10-0 record, and while they've earned that record, the fact of the matter is that it's come against a soft schedule.
It's telling that oddsmakers in Las Vegas would have Iowa as a 10-plus point underdog to each of the top three playoff contenders in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State on a neutral field, as well as an 8-point underdog to Notre Dame. I don't have much of a problem with their No. 5 ranking, but the fact of the matter is that they're way overvalued right now.
That certainly showed last week as they opened as 12-point favorites against Minnesota and the money moved the line down to -9. Iowa barely won that game 40-35 a week after escaping with a 35-27 win at Indiana. Those are two bad teams, and Iowa couldn't put them away. It's just not their style to win in blowout fashion, which is why Purdue is showing so much value here as a 23-point dog.
Purdue continues to fight here down the stretch, beating Nebraska 55-45 three weeks ago and nearly upsetting Northwestern in a 14-21 road loss last week. I really like what I've seen from redshirt freshman QB David Blough, who has averaged 245 passing yards on 62 percent completions with six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games. He's getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on.
Blough should have some success against this Iowa defense, which has given up a combined 62 points and 841 yards to Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks. It also help that leading rusher Markell Jones is probable to play after dealing with a knee injury. He has been a huge bright spot on this team, rushing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per carry.
Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is having a fine season, but he's been banged up all year, and next week's game against Nebraska is more important, so don't expect the coaching staff to allow him to run as much as he normally does. Beathard's latest ailment is a hip injury suffered in the win over Minnesota last week. But he's also dealing with a groin injury, so he's just nowhere near 100 percent.
Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure right now too, which could help explain its close calls against Indiana and Minnesota. It doesn't need style points either, just a win will do, and that's all that head coach Kirk Ferentz cares about. He's not one to run up scoreboards, that's for sure, and the Hawkeyes aren't capable anyways. They are a run-first, stop the run type of team that's not flashy at all. That's why it's so difficult for them to cover these monstrous spreads.
Unbeaten teams went 1-5 against the spread last week, so with each win from these teams comes bigger expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers. Oddsmakers are forced to shade their lines because they know the public is going to be on them.
Iowa has eight wins over Power 5 teams, but those have come by just an average of 11.0 points per game. Purdue has faced three teams who are currently ranked by the playoff committee, and it has only lost those games by an average of 9.0 points per game. That alone shows you there's some value with the Boilermakers here.
Plus, Purdue has actually played its best football on the road this season. It suffered a fluke 31-41 loss at Marshall in the opener where it gave up a pick-6 in the closing seconds when it was driving for the win after leading the entire way. The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing at Michigan State 21-24 as 23-point dogs, at Wisconsin 7-24 as 23-point dogs, and at Northwestern 14-21 as 14-point dogs.
I would argue that Michigan State and Wisconsin are both better than Iowa, and Purdue played both tough on the road as identical 23-point dogs, losing by an average of 10.0 points to them. Yes, Wisconsin did lose to Iowa 10-6, but that was a fluky loss too because the Badgers outgained the Hawks by 99 yards and fumbled on the 1-yard line on what would have been the winning TD.
This is Purdue's Super Bowl. An upset win here would make their season. I'm not calling for that, but that's just their mentality coming in. They have nothing to lose while Iowa has everything to lose, so there's no pressure on the Boilermakers. It also helps that home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. Purdue won 27-24 as a 5-point dog in its last trip to Iowa City, and lost 17-22 as a 17-point dog the time before.
Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. It is only losing to these teams by an average of 6.3 points per game. The Boilermakers are consistently undervalued on the road, especially against good teams. That's the case again here. The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Bet Purdue as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday!
|
11-21-15 |
North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6 |
|
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 49 m |
Show
|
15* UNC/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +6
The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be laying it all on the line this week for a couple of different reasons. The biggest is that it's the final home game of Frank Beamer's illustrious career, but it's also a chance to become bowl eligible and extend their nation's longest bowl streak to 23 seasons. Oh yea, it's also Senior Day for 26 Hokies on the roster. It's safe to say that these players will be leaving it all on the field Saturday.
''We all know it's a huge game, not only for Frank but for us,'' senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy said this week. ''It's my last time walking through the tunnel at Lane Stadium, so I know I'm going to have some emotions running through my body. I'm sure all the other seniors will also. I think we're going to play our butts off this game, not only for us but for Coach Beamer and for this team to keep this bowl streak going. It'll be a huge game.''
The Hokies can also secure bowl eligibility next week by winning their regular-season finale against Virginia. Beamer's son Shane, the Hokies' associate head coach and running backs coach, would obviously prefer it happens against North Carolina. ''I can't wait for Saturday,'' he said. ''We need Lane Stadium to be the loudest it's ever been on Saturday. Ever.''
North Carolina is only ranked 17th in the playoff poll with a 9-1 record because it has played such a soft schedule this year. It has played seven home games, one neutral site game (a loss to South Carolina), and two true road games. It only beat both Georgia Tech and Pitt by 7 points apiece in its two true road games, and Virginia Tech is better than both of those squads in my opinion, especially now that QB Michael Brewer is back.
Brewer led the Hokies to a 23-21 win at Georgia Tech last week, which followed up a 26-10 win at Boston College the previous week. But defense has been the main reason for the late-season resurgence. The Hokies held Boston College to just 218 yards and forced four turnovers. They also limited a very good Georgia Tech offense to 258 yards and forced three turnovers. This is a senior-laden defense that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in trying to tame this UNC offense.
UNC has had a very good offense the last two seasons, but Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster have shut the Tar Heels down. The Hokies won 27-17 at home in 2013 over the Tar Heels and held them to 376 yards. They also won 34-17 on the road last year while limiting Marquise Williams and company to 323 yards. Foster clearly has this UNC offense figured out.
UNC is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last games as the coach of UNC. Beamer is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Virginia Tech. These are two 100% never lost systems folks. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|
11-20-15 |
Cincinnati v. South Florida +2 |
Top |
27-65 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
20* Cincinnati/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +2
When I first looked into this game, I didn’t love the spot for South Florida. They just won their 6th game last week in an upset victory over Temple to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. I initially thought this would be a letdown spot for them after that accomplishment, but a closer inspection shows that they still have plenty to play for and will have no problem getting focused for Cincinnati this week.
Indeed, the Bulls are actually in second place in the AAC East standings at 4-2. The team ahead of them? Temple at 5-1. But the Bulls obviously have the tiebreaker over the Owls now, so if they can win out they will have a good chance to play in the AAC Championship Game. Temple still has to play Memphis and UConn, and there’s a good chance it loses one of those two games. Cincinnati (3-3) is two games back in the AAC East with little to play for right now, so if anything I have to question the Bearcats’ motivation.
With how well the Bulls are playing right now, it would be foolish to bet against them. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with blowout wins over Syracuse (45-24), SMU (38-14) and Temple (44-23). They also went on the road and beat East Carolina (22-17) and Connecticut (28-20) as underdogs. They have actually been an underdog in five of their last six games. They outgained ECU by 222 yards and Temple by 176 yards in their last two games.
Raymond James Stadium has offered South Florida a tremendous home-field advantage this year. It is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 21.4 points per game in the process. Its only loss came to Memphis by a final of 17-24. The Bulls are also outgaining teams by an average of 155.0 yards per game at home this year.
Cincinnati has a very good offense but an awful defense. It is giving up 28.2 points and 403 yards per game. Its biggest problem has been stopping the run. The Bearcats are giving up 186 yards rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 150 per game and 3.9 per carry.
That’s bad news for them because now they’re up against a South Florida offense that is averaging 228 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Marlon Mack, one of the most underrated backs in the country, rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Temple defense last week. He now has 1,065 yards while averaging 6.5 per carry on the season. He should have another career game against this weak Cincinnati stop unit.
Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Miami Ohio by a final of 37-33 as 21-point favorites. Miami Ohio is 2-9 on the season and has been outscored by 176 points this year. USF is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the last two years. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season. Bet South Florida Friday.
|
11-20-15 |
Knicks +6.5 v. Thunder |
|
93-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +6.5
The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are much-improved with all the additions they made this offseason, which has led to a 6-6 start. Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or less, and they have been competitive in every game they've played in. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Knicks are well-rested coming into this one as they've had two days off in between games. They will be up against an Oklahoma City team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days, and one that remains without its best player in Kevin Durtant.
The Thunder have not played well without Durant here recently. They lost 85-100 at home to Boston and 114-122 on the road to Memphis before beating Oklahoma City 110-103 as 12.5-point home favorites. But the Pelicans have only won one game all season, and they were playing without Anthony Davis in that game.
The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. The Knicks didn't win their 6th game of the season until Game 42 last year on January 19th, which just shows how much improvement they've made with the addition of Porzingis, Lopez and company. Take the Knicks Friday.
|
11-20-15 |
Wright State +25 v. Kentucky |
|
63-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wright State +25
This is simply a situational play against Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off a huge 74-63 over Duke on Tuesday, and I expect them to be still feeling a little too good about themselves. They won't come back with the kind of focus it takes to put away Wright State by more than 25 points.
Kentucky returned zero starters this season and is starting over. It only beat Albany by 13 points in its opener and New Jersey Tech by 30 in its second game. Now it is overvalued off that win over Duke.
Wright State is just 1-2 this season, but its two losses have come by 5 and 6 points to CS-Northridge and Northern Illinois, both on the road. Wright State has had four days off in between games, while Kentucky has had just two.
Wright State returned three key starters this season in JT Yoho (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Joe Thomasson (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Michael Karena (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Also back are key reserves Grant Benzinger (9.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Davis (7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg). So, they returned each of their top four scorers from last year, which was an injury-riddled campaign as three of their best players missed significant playing time.
Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points, a good free throw shooting team making 72% of their free throws, who have a 45% field goal percentage defense or worse are 74-35 (67.9%) ATS since 1997. Roll with Wright State Friday.
|
11-19-15 |
Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 213 |
|
124-117 |
Loss |
-103 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213
No Chris Paul and no J.J. Redick is going to spell trouble for the Clippers' offense tonight. Both Paul and Redick are listed as doubtful, leaving the Clippers without their two starting guards. In their places will be Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford, which is a huge downgrade on the offensive end.
The Clippers are going to have to rely on defense until those two return, which is what they did in a 101-96 win over Detroit on November 14. They have had four days off in between games to prepare for the Warriors, so look for them to be sharp on the defensive end behind DeAndre Jordan and company.
This has become a fierce rivalry now that these teams both exchanged words in the offseason. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings, but all four of those were with Chris Paul in the lineup. The Warriors are very good on offense, but what gets overlooked is that they are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too.
They are only allowing opponents to make 42.3% of their shots this season and life is going to be difficult for the Clippers without Paul and Redick in this one. It's also worth mentioning that Steph Curry's running mate, Klay Thompson, is questionable to play in this game due to a back injury that has limited him all season.
Golden State is 29-13 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 12-3 in Clippers last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 36-17 in Clippers last 53 Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
11-19-15 |
Titans v. Jaguars -3 |
|
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville -3
The Jaguars are really improving as the season goes on under head coach Gus Bradley. They have gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their last three games overall. They beat a good Bills team 34-31 over in London and also upset the Ravens 22-20 on the road as 5-point underdogs.
Even the game they lost they should have won as they fell 23-28 as 7.5-point road dogs to the Jets. They actually outgained the Jets by 146 total yards in the game, racking up 436 total yards against a good New York defense, while also only allowing 290 total yards. But they finished that game -4 in turnover differential, which proved to be the difference.
I really like the state of mind of the Jaguars right now. They are only one game back of both Indianapolis and Houston for first place in the AFC South, so they have a lot to play for. I don’t really like the mindset of the 2-7 Titans, who had their head coach fired midseason. They responded with a road win at New Orleans in Mike Mularkey’s first game as interim head coach, but then proceeded to go back to their usual bad ways in a 10-27 home loss to the Panthers last week.
That win over the Saints was really an aberration, but the Saints also lost badly to the Redskins last week, so that team isn’t playing well right now. The Titans are still 1-5 in their last six games overall. They have been outgained by at least 59 yards in four of their last five games, including 122 yards by the Falcons and 135 yards by the Dolphins in a 10-38 loss.
Marcus Mariota is being asked to do too much because the Titans just do not have a running game. They have been held to 97 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games, so this is really a one-dimensional offense. Now, another starting WR in Justin Hunter went down with a broken foot last week. Kendall Wright is also out after missing the last three games with an MCL injury. Wright and Hunter are the team's #2 and #3 leading receivers this season behind tight end Delanie Walker, so Mariota's options are clearly limited right now.
Blake Bortles has a lot more help around him than Mariota does. Bortles has a nice stable of young receivers, plus T.J. Yeldon is having a fine rookie season running the football. He has rushed for 532 yards this year while averaging 4.0 per carry. Allen Hurns has caught a touchdown in seven consecutive games, which is a franchise record. Allen Robinson is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL as well.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent years. The home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings, and the home team won both meetings last season. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three years. The Titans are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Tennessee is 4-20-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC foes. Bet the Jaguars Thursday.
|
11-19-15 |
East Carolina v. Central Florida +14.5 |
|
44-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* ECU/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Central Florida +14.5
The Central Florida Knights haven’t had a lot to be excited about this season. They are 0-10 and their head coach, George O’Leary, stepped down midseason. But they certainly do not want to go 0-12 this season and have that hanging over their heads all offseason. They have two more chances to get a win, both at home as they host East Carolina and then South Florida. Look for them to lay it all on the line in this game to get a win, especially since they are playing in a nationally televised home game on ESPN Thursday night. That’s more than enough motivation to bring out their best effort.
East Carolina has really fizzled out here down the stretch. It has gone 0-3 in its last three games overall and has been thoroughly outplayed in the process. Even though the Pirates beat Tulsa three weeks back 30-17, they were outgained in that contest by 81 yards. They blew a late lead and lost 14-24 at home to Temple three weeks ago, and they went on to get blown out 13-31 at Connecticut two games ago. They have been held to just 14.7 points per game in their last three.
Last week, ECU lost 17-22 at home to South Florida as 5.5-point favorites. While that final score looks close, this was actually a huge blowout in the Bulls’ favor. They outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in the game and should have won by a lot more. They racked up 442 yards while limiting the Pirates to just 220 yards. I just don’t like the way the Pirates are playing right now, and you cannot trust them to win by more than a two touchdowns on the road, which is what it would take to cover this 14.5-point spread.
UCF has put together a couple of promising efforts here of late that make me think it can hang with East Carolina. It only lost 16-30 on the road at Temple as 19.5-point dogs on October 17 to cover that spread. The Knights also covered as 17-point road dogs to Tulsa in their last game in a 30-45 loss. But that game was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 13 yards, but they committed four turnovers to help Tulsa pull away.
ECU has not beaten UCF by more than 14 points in any of their nine meetings dating back to 2005. The Pirates have won five of those nine meetings, but their victories have come by 7, 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. The Knights have won the last two with a 40-20 home win in 2012 and a 32-30 road win in 2014.
The Pirates are 0-9 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. ECU is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Pirates are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games. ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. UCF is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games. Take UCF Thursday.
|
11-19-15 |
Marshall +14 v. Tennessee |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +14
Tennessee is in a transition year under first-year head coach Rick Barnes. The results haven't been promising in the early going with a narrow 82-78 home win over UNC-Asheville and a 67-69 road loss to Georgia Tech. The Volunteers have no business laying 14 points to this improved Marshall team.
Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni. It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play. Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.
The Herd return four starters from last year. That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system. Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg). Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.
D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason. He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year. He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina. He's starting to really get his pieces in place.
Tennessee is a woeful 0-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons, averaging 61.8 points and giving up 61.8 points in these spots. That's a trend we'll gladly ride tonight. Take Marshall Thursday.
|
11-19-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Mississippi State +10 |
Top |
105-79 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +10
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country. This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.
Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games. Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville. He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's. His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.
Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Travis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).
So, nearly the entire team returns from last year. Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era. Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit. He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.
After beating Eastern Washington 106-88 in their opener, the Bulldogs fell 72-76 at home to Southern. That loss obviously has the betting public not wanting anything to do with this team as they are now 10-point underdogs in this Puerto Rico Tip Off against Miami. Newmand didn't play against Eastern Washington, and he was on a minutes restriction against Southern. But now he's a full go and should make a huge difference for this team.
Miami has four starters back as well this season and is a good team, but should not be favored by double-digits here. It opened with an 86-59 win over UTRGV and a 93-77 win over LA-Lafayette and hasn't done anything to impress me with those two results. This is a team that shot just 42.8% last year, ranking 12th in the ACC.
Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Mississippi State Thursday.
|
11-18-15 |
Bulls v. Suns -2.5 |
|
103-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight. With the way the Suns are playing, we are getting them at a tremendous discount. They are 5-2 at home this season, including three straight home wins over the Clippers (by 14), Nuggets (by 24) and Lakers (by 19). Not only are they winning, they are dominating.
"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."
Now they'll be playing against a Chicago Bulls team that will be without its best player in Derrick Rose, who is expected to sit out this game with an ankle injury. The Bulls come in overvalued due to also going 3-0 in their last three games, but their three wins came against the 76ers, Hornets (by 5) and Pacers (by 1).
Chicago is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons. It is losing in this spot by 11.9 points per game. Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points. The Suns are 48-24 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Take the Suns Wednesday.
|
11-18-15 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 61 |
|
19-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* Western Michigan/Northern Illinois MAC No-Brainer on UNDER 61
First place in the MAC West division is on the line when the Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies get together tonight at Huskie Stadium. The intensity will be turned up a notch in this one, and I believe that favors both defenses tremendously in what will be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.
Both of these teams have been pretty solid defensively this season. The Huskies only give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play. The Broncos have been much better within the conference, giving up 23.7 points and 376.3 yards per game. They only allowed 14 points to Ohio, 13 to Miami Ohio and 7 to Ball State in three of their last five contests.
Northern Illinois is without starting QB Drew Hare, and the offense isn't as explosive with backup Ryan Graham in there. Graham has only played the last 1.5 games due to the Hare injury. He played well to close against Toledo, but the Huskies relied mostly on their rushing attack to beat Buffalo last week.
What really stands out to me is the low-scoring nature of this series. These teams combined for 52 points and 351.0 yards apiece last year in a 31-21 NIU victory. They combined for 47 points and 360.0 yards apiece in a 33-14 NIU home win in 2013 as well. In fact, eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points. Also, 15 of the last 19 meetings have seen 60 or less.
Western Michigan is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Northern Illinois is 29-14 UNDER in its last 43 home games vs. conference opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight November games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Northern Illinois. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
11-18-15 |
Wolves v. Magic -3 |
Top |
101-104 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3
The Minnesota Timberwolves are way overvalued right now due to incredibly going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in all road games this season. But most of those games came in the role of a big underdog, and now they are only 3-point road dogs against the Orlando Magic tonight.
Minnesota is in an awful spot here. It is coming off an upset win at Miami last night, so it will be playing the second of a back-to-back. Not only that, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Timberwolves, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Magic have had three days off in between games after last playing at Washington on Saturday.
The Magic are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and have consistently been undervalued. They are 5-6 SU & 8-3 ATS through 11 games. Four of their six losses have come by 5 points or less to Washington (by 1), OKC (by 3), Chicago (by 5) and Houston (by 5). You're not going to get this team at a discount like this for too much longer, so it's time to take advantage.
The Magic are 3-0 in their last three home games with impressive wins over the Raptors, Lakers and Jazz. Orlando is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including three straight wins by 13, 9 and 8 points. The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that average 56 or more boards per game over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday.
|
11-18-15 |
IUPU-Indianapolis +12 v. NC State |
|
56-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on IUPUI +12
It's clear to me that IUPUI is going to be one of the best teams in the Summit League this season. The Jaguars returned four starters this year, and they nabbed three key transfers from Loyola Chicago in Nick Osborne, Matt O'Leary and Jordan Pickett. Another transfer, former Eastern Illinois guard Darrell Combs, is playing a big role as well.
IUPUI has opened with two tough opponents. It beat Indiana State 72-70 on the road as 8-point underdogs, and then only lost 71-75 at Marquette as 13.5-point dogs. Combs has led the way with 18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 4.0 apg through the first two games. Osbourne (11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and O'Leary (8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are holding down the fort in the paint.
NC State came into the season overvalued after knocking off top-seeded Villanova in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Wolfpack lost four key contributors in the offseason, and their recruiting "class" included just one person, so they have only 10 players on scholarship this year.
Trevor Lacey (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) left early for the NBA and went undrafted, which was a huge blow. Ralston Turner (12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Kyle Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) also departed. That leaves three returning starters in Cat Barber (12.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Lennard Freeman (3.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg). Also, their lone recruit in the offseason was WVU transfer Terry Henderson, and he is out 6-8 weeks to start the season with an ankle injury.
NC State had one of the worst performances of the early college hoops season, losing 68-85 at home to William & Mary as 12.5-point favorites. If that 17-point loss doesn't show how much the Wolfpack are in trouble this year, then I don't know what does. They did rebound with an 88-70 home win over South Alabama as expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, but this underrated IUPUI team will give them a run for their money tonight.
IUPUI is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons. The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two years. IUPUI is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Bet IUPUI Wednesday.
|
11-17-15 |
CS-Fullerton v. Pacific -5.5 |
|
77-76 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pacific -5.5
Pacific returned all five starters from a team that went just 12-19 last season. But it was a rebuilding year last season, and now the Tigers will be a big-time sleeper in the West Coast Conference with what they have returning.
T.J. Wallace (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Eric Thompson (8.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Ray Bowles (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), David Taylor (7.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg) and Sami Eleraky (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are all back. Coach Ron Verlin added a playmaker in Maleke Haynes and a stretch four in Tonko Vuko from the junior college ranks, while also nabbing high-scoring prep star Anthony Townes. Townes is from the same high school that sent T.J. Wallace and Ray Bowles to the Tigers.
I was impressed with the way Pacific competed in its opener, a 61-79 loss at highly-ranked Arizona, covering the spread as 23.5-point underdogs. After shaking off the nerves with a poor first half, Pacific was only outscored 37-38 after intermission by Arizona. That's a performance that this team can build off of leading into this game with CS-Fullerton.
Cal-State Fullerton went 9-22 last year, including 1-15 in Big West play. It is picked to finish last in the Big West again in 2015-16. It's easy to see why as the Titans lose four starters in Alex Harris, (15.8 ppg), Moses Morgan (8.0 ppg), Steven McClellan (6.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Josh Gentry (6.2 ppg). Their only returning starter is Kennedy Esume (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg). To say they are starting over would be an understatement.
Fullerton lost its opener 74-79 as 2-point underdogs at Loyola-Marymount. Keep in mind that Loyola-Marymount went 8-23 last season. Plus, the Lions only returned two starters from last year and are pretty much starting over. They are picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference this season, well behind Pacific. Coach Mike Dunlap cleaned house, yet they were still able to beat this awful Fullerton team in the opener.
Pacific is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Fullerton. Fullerton is 9-21 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and 17-35-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Roll with Pacific Tuesday.
|
11-17-15 |
Hornets v. Knicks +1 |
|
94-102 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +1
The New York Knicks want revenge from a 93-95 loss at Charlotte on November 11 less than a week ago. Kristaps Porzingis hit a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks, but it was called off because it came after the buzzer. I look for the Knicks to have their revenge at home this time around.
New York is clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season. It sits at 5-6, but all six of its losses have come by 11 points or less as it has been competitive in every game. What really shows that the Knicks are undervalued is the fact that they've gone 7-4 ATS. They should not be underdogs here.
Charlotte has played well at home, but it's been a different story on the road. The Bobcats are 2-4 on the road this year with their only wins coming against depleted Mavericks and Timberwolves teams at the time they played them. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.
New York outrebounded Charlotte 52-33 in the first meeting, and it's average of 15.5 second-chance points is one of the best marks in the NBA. The Knicks also have one of the league's best scoring averages (41.7) from their bench this year. Robin Lopez did a good job of limiting Al Jefferson to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting. Take the Knicks Tuesday.
|
11-17-15 |
Toledo +7 v. Bowling Green |
Top |
44-28 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Toledo +7
This feels a lot like last year when Bowling Green clinched the MAC East Title with a few weeks to go and proceeded to tank the rest of the way. I could easily see that happening again this year after the Falcons clinched the MAC East with their 41-27 win at Central Michigan last week. They literally have nothing to play for now, and betting on teams in these situations will get you killed.
Last year, Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title with two games left. It went on to lose 20-27 at Toledo as 7-point underdogs and 24-41 at home to Ball State as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27 points in that game. The Falcons also went on to lose to Northern Illinois 17-51 in the MAC Championship.
Toledo has everything to play for right now. It is sitting in a three-way tie with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan for first place in the MAC West and the right to play Bowling Green in the MAC Championship. The Rockets are going to have to win out and get some help because they lost a heartbreaker 27-32 to Northern Illinois, so the Huskies hold the tiebreaker over them. But they host Western Michigan next week so they have a good shot.
The Rockets did a great job of handling their business last week in winning 28-23 at Central Michigan. This game was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated as the Rockets jumped out to a 21-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. The Chippewas even got a defensive touchdown to help get them back in the game.
Toledo has actually outgained each of its last seven opponents this season. The only two games it got outgained this year it still found a way to beat Iowa State and Arkansas. The Rockets are very good on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8. They also give up just 5.0 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.5.
Bowling Green’s success offensively is well documented, but it will finally be up against a legitimate defense this week. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game and will be the best defense that the Falcons have seen in conference play. Bowling Green’s biggest weakness is its defense, which allows 27.9 points, 439 yards per game and 5.6 per play.
I believe the Falcons come in overvalued due to having gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Well, the last two games were a lot closer than the final scores. They beat Ohio 62-24 despite only outgaining the Bobcats by 38 yards. They also beat Western Michigan 41-27 despite only outgaining the Broncos by 18 yards.
Toledo simply owns Bowling Green, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Not only are they winning these games, they are dominating them. They have outgained Bowling Green in all five games with four of those coming by 101 yards or more. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if they win this game outright as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games. The Rockets have actually had an extra day of rest than the Falcons. They played last Tuesday while the Falcons played on Wednesday, and that is a nice advantage for them as well. Bet Toledo Tuesday.
|
11-17-15 |
Oklahoma -4 v. Memphis |
|
84-78 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* Oklahoma/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4
The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 8 ranked team in the country for good reason this year. They return four starters, three of them seniors, from last season's squad that went 24-11 and barely missed the Elite 8.
Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield is back after averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds last year. Also back are Jordan Woodard (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg), Ryan Spangler (9.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg).
Highly regarded recruits Christian James and Rashard Odomes will play immediately. Odomes averaged 25.2 points last year as a senior at Copperas Cove High School. James broke his leg in an AAU game last August before his senior year of high school but is fully recovered.
Josh Pastner's seat is getting very hot at Memphis. The Tigers went just 18-14 last season and finished 10-8 in the AAC. They lost Kuran Iverson to transfer in the middle of last season, and saw Nick King and RaShawn Powell elect to leave the program after the season was over.
But the biggest blow for the Tigers came in July, when standout sophomore forward Austin Nichols surprisingly decided to leave the program as well, ending up with Virginia. Nichols was the AAC Rookie of the Year two years ago and first-team all-league player last season, when he led the Tigers in scoring (13.3 ppg) and was second in the league in blocked shots (3.4 bpg).
Memphis did open with a 67-49 win over Southern Miss Saturday, but that was an awful Golden Eagles team that went 9-20 last season. Southern Miss also returned just one starter from last year and lost its two best players in Chip Armelin (15.8 ppg) and Matt Bingaya (13.8 ppg).
Memphis also allowed 21 offensive rebounds by Southern Miss in that game, which is a sign that Pastner just doesn't have control of this team. Look for the Tigers to get outworked by the Sooners on the glass in this one. Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, losing by an average of 13.2 points per game. Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.
|
11-16-15 |
Monmouth v. USC -9.5 |
|
90-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -9.5
The USC Trojans are certainly a team to keep your eye on this season. Andy Enfield enters Year 3 here with by far his best team yet. The Trojans didn't lose a single player who started a game in 2014-15. Their heralded 2014 recruiting class is a year older, and they've added a pair of four-star recruits in forward Benny Boatwright and center Chimezie Metu.
All five returning starters are back in Jordan McClaughlin (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), Katin Reinhardt (12.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Julian Jacobs (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Elijah Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg). This is a core group that improved as the season went on, but suffered and absurd amount of close losses in Pac-12 play. Look for those losses to start turning into wins in 2015-16.
I like what I saw from USC in its opener, an 83-45 beat down of San Diego as 12.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 25.5 points. McLaughlin (20), Steward (14), Jacobs (11) and Boatwright (10) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Trojans. But the defense was even more impressive, limiting San Diego to 15-of-61 (24.6%) shooting.
This is a massive letdown spot for Monmouth. It beat UCLA 84-81 on the road as 15-point underdogs in its opener, and it is clearly overvalued after that result. The Bruins gave the game away by committing 23 turnovers despite outrebounding Monmouth 60-37 for the game. Rebounding could be an issue again for Monmouth against USC, which outrebounded San Diego 55-36. UCLA also escaped with an 88-83 win over Cal Poly last night, so it's clear that the Bruins aren't great this year.
Plays on a favorite (USC) - after allowing 50 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on a favorite (USC) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with USC Monday.
|
11-16-15 |
Texans +10.5 v. Bengals |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
99 h 31 m |
Show
|
20* Texans/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +10.5
Because the Bengals are 8-0 straight up and 7-0-1 against the spread this season, the betting public is quick to continue backing them. Oddsmakers know this, and thus they have to shade the line in the Bengals' favor to try and get even action on both side. This has created some excellent line value to swoop in and back the double-digit underdog Texans.
That's especially the case with the great spot the Texans are in. They are coming off a season-saving 20-6 win over the Titans last week in which their defense came through with their best performance of the season, limiting Tennessee to just 211 total yards and forcing three turnovers. At 3-5, most teams wouldn't be able to come back and make the playoffs, but that's not the case for the Texans.
Houston only trails Indianapolis 0.5 games in the AFC East and can pull into a first-place tie with a win. That's why I love the motivation of this Texans team right now, and they had to have a much more enjoyable bye week after their 14-point win over the Titans. They have had two weeks to get rested, healthy, and prepared to face the Bengals. That's a huge advantage coming into this game. The Bengals are so far out in front of the Steelers in the AFC North that they can afford to take their foot off the gas, too.
Cincinnati backers were rewarded laying double-digits last week in a 31-10 win over the Johnny Manziel-led Browns. But that was a 7-point game into the fourth quarter. And the Browns are a mess right now. So after winning last week by laying the big points, the betting public won't be scared to do so again this week. The problem for the public is that the Texans are a much more formidable opponent than Manziel and the Browns.
Statistically, the Texans are a much better team than their 3-5 record would indicate. They actually rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 18.5 yards per game. The Bengals are 7th in yardage differential to compare. The Texans have an underrated offense that ranks 9th in the NFL at 369.4 yards per game. They also have a respectable defense that is 14th and one that I believe will only get better as the season goes on.
Houston is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cincinnati. It will be out for revenge from a 22-13 home loss to the Bengals late in the season last year that ultimately cost the Texans a playoff spot. Had they won that game, they would have been in the postseason. Things like that are not forgotten, and the Texans are really looking at this as a must-win game here.
Plays on underdogs with a poor rushing offense (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8-plus games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams who are slow starters that are outscored by 5 or more points per game at halftime, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This trend just shows how teams who continue covering spreads are overvalued in the second half of the season. The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 90 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cincinnati. Bet the Texans Monday.
|
11-16-15 |
Celtics v. Rockets -5 |
|
111-95 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5
It's time to buy low on the Houston Rockets tonight as they come into this game with three straight losses straight up and against the spread. It's also time to sell high on the Boston Celtics as they come in off a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS stretch. I believe the Rockets are simply undervalued here as only 5-point home favorites after these recent results.
But the Rockets have been playing without Dwight Howard for almost half of the season in the early going, and they're 1-3 without him. They are allowing an average of 57.3 points in the paint in their last three games without him compared to 48.7 in the six games he's played. The good news is that Howard is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so the defense is going to be much better.
Houston has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Boston, and it is 4-0 in its last four home meetings. Its last four home wins have come by 14, 24, 12 and 16 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game. I believe another double-digit home win for the Rockets is in store tonight.
Boston is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. The Celtics are 47-77 ATS in its last 124 games off a road win by 10 points or more. Houston is 16-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Rockets going 4-0 ATS. Take the Rockets Monday.
|
11-15-15 |
Cal Poly v. UCLA -7 |
|
83-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7
The UCLA Bruins will be highly motivated for a win today after getting upset by Monmouth 81-84 in their opener. They committed 23 turnovers and only forced 7 to essentially give the game away. Look for the Bruins to shore up those turnover issues and to come back with a much better effort Sunday.
This is a UCLA team that won 22 games last year and advanced to the Sweet 16. They have three starters back from that team in Bryce Alford (15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), Tony Parker (11.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Isaac Hamilton (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg). Parker is going to be one of the best players in the country this season. He had 19 points and 19 rebounds against Monmouth.
Cal Poly is coming off a 72-74 loss at UNLV. It trailed by double-digits in the second half before coming back to make it close late, which I believe is keeping this line against UCLA smaller than it should be. The Mustangs returned three starters this season from a team that went just 13-16 last year.
Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. UCLA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. UCLA is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games overall. Roll with UCLA Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 |
Top |
39-32 |
Loss |
-100 |
40 h 27 m |
Show
|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3
Remember last year when the Seahawks were 3-3 to start the season an everyone was panicking. They went on to finish 12-4 and earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Well, they opened an even worse 2-4 this year and everyone was panicking again. But they’ve reeled off two straight victories since with a 20-3 win at San Francisco and a 13-12 win at Dallas. They are now 4-4 and only two games behind the Cardinals in the NFC West. If they want to win the division this year, they cannot afford to lose this game.
The Seahawks outgained the 49ers by 246 yards and the Cowboys by 103 yards in their last two games, so they clearly have gotten it together. Their defense has gotten back to being the most dominant in the league. They held the 49ers to just 142 total yards and the Cowboys to 220. Now I look for them to shut down this overrated Arizona offense this week to help aid the victory.
Seattle has held a lead in the 4th quarter in every game this season and could easily be 8-0. But it lost to four very good teams including three on the road. The Seahawks’ four losses have come to Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay and St. Louis, who are a combined 26-6 this season. So they have fell victim to a tough early schedule. But again, they held a 4th quarter lead in every game they lost despite the difficulty of the schedule.
Arizona is way overvalued due to its 6-2 start this season. Its six wins have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Cleveland. Those six teams are a combined 15-36 this season, and none of the six currently owns even a .500 record, let alone a winning record. Even the losses were suspect as they fell 22-24 at home to the Rams and 13-25 on the road to the Steelers, who were playing without Ben Roethlisberger. This team has simply taken advantage of a very easy schedule to this point.
Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all four wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 28.8 points per game. They have outscored the Cardinals by a combined 108 points in those five meetings even when you factor in their 17-10 home loss. One thing that really stands out to me is that Seattle has been favored by 9.5, 8, and 10.5 in its last three home meetings with Arizona. Now it is only a 3-point favorite, which just shows how much Arizona is being overvalued right now.
While Russell Wilson has figured out Arizona’s defense to the tune of 31.2 points per game in the last five meetings, this Seattle defense has shut down Arizona. The Cardinals have only averaged 9.6 points per game in their last five meetings with Seattle. The Cardinals are running the football better this year, but they are still a pass-first team. That bodes well for the Seahawks, who rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 186.4 yards per game.
The Seahawks simply do not lose at home. They are 28-3 in all home games over the past four seasons as the 12th man is the real deal. Seattle is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. This may be the last time you get Seattle at a discount, so take advantage this week. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Jazz +5 v. Hawks |
|
97-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +5
The Utah Jazz conclude a tough 4-game road trip with a game against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They have opened 0-3 on this trip and they do not want to go back home without a win. Look for the Jazz to be laying it all on the line tonight against the Hawks as a result.
Utah may be 0-3 on this trip, but it could easily be 2-1. It only lost 114-118 at Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs and 91-92 at Miami as 3.5-point dogs. Those are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Jazz ran out of gas in playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days in a 93-102 loss at Orlando last time out. But they've had a day to recoup before this game.
The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season. They already have four wins by 6 points or less this year. They were without head coach Mike Budenholzer for family reasons in a 93-106 loss to Boston in their last game on Friday. They are expected to be without Budenholzer again tonight, and they certainly miss his leadership and X's and O's.
Utah is also going to be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta. The last three have come by 6, 3 and 2 points, so they've been very close. In fact, six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well.
The Jazz are 36-23 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Utah is 20-9 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in over the past two years. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. loss. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Bet the Jazz Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Chiefs +6 v. Broncos |
|
29-13 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* Chiefs/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +6
This is a great spot for the Chiefs. They have turned their season around in their last two games with back-to-back double-digit wins over the Steelers and Lions. They beat the Steelers 23-13 at home before crushing the Lions 45-10 in London. Now they have had two weeks off to continue to improve as a team under Andy Reid.
It is a proven fact that Reid is one of the best head coaches all-time at coming up with a game plan when given two weeks to prepare. Indeed, Reid was 13-1 straight up in Philadelphia off a bye, and he's now 14-2 after going 1-1 with the Chiefs thus far. He is known for giving his players a full week off, while under the CBA terms, players only get a mandatory four days off on a bye week. Rex Ryan was previously 1-5 off a bye, but changed it up and took a page from Reid’s book last week. He gave the Bills a full week off, and they responded with a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins.
The Chiefs have plenty of motivation heading into this one. They have lost seven straight to the Broncos, and the last time they lost eight in row in this series was all the way back from 1976 to 1979. They gave away the game in their first meeting in a 24-31 home loss as the Broncos scored 14 points in the final 36 seconds. The Chiefs uncharacteristically committed five turnovers in that game to hand Denver the win. In their other seven games this season, they have only committed a combined three turnovers just to prove how fluky that game was.
The reason the Chiefs have a chance to pull the upset in this game is because their defense is finally playing up to their potential. The Chiefs have held their last four opponents to 18 points or less, and an average of 14.3 points per game. This defense is loaded at every level and is especially good at getting after opposing quarterbacks. That will be key against the struggling Peyton Manning, who has thrown nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions this year. He has thrown at least one interception in all eight games this season.
Injuries and suspensions to several key players for the Broncos will hamper them this week. Manning is banged up with a foot injury, though he's expected to play. Emmanuel Sanders has an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Friday, and he's questionable. On defense, LB Demarcus Ware is out with a back injury. That will allow the Chiefs O-Line to focus on Von Miller. The Broncos will also be without their top cornerback in Aqib Talib, who has been suspended for this one.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 102-59 (63.4%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS in its last 25 games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Lions +11 v. Packers |
|
18-16 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +11
The Green Bay Packers weren't as good as everyone thought they were during their 6-0 start to the season. They never once covered the spread by more than a touchdown in those first six games, and they have finally been exposed the past two weeks against better-quality teams. Green Bay was outgained by 360 yards in a 10-29 loss at Denver and by 25 yards in a 29-37 loss at Carolina, which was nowhere near as close as the final score showed as the Packers got some late yardage and points in the 4th quarter to make it interesting.
In fact, the Packers have now been outgained in four straight games and in five of eight games this season. They actually rank a woeful 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 41.2 yards per game on the season. Aaron Rodgers is perceived to be the best QB in the league, and while he may be, this offense just isn't getting it done. The Packers actually rank just 25th in total offense this year at 340.9 yards per game.
Statistically, these teams are almost equals as the Lions are getting outgained by 48.0 yards per game this year, which is only 6.8 yards more than the Packers. But this 11-point spread would indicate that the Packers are by far the superior team, but that's simply not the case. Rodgers clearly misses Jordy Nelson because his receivers aren't getting much separation outside of Randall Cobb. Everything is just coming much tougher for this offense than it did in year's past.
It's not just the offense, though. The defense has surrendered an average of 275 passing yards per game in its last three contests. Green Bay also allowed the Broncos and Panthers to rush for a combined 290 yards. The Packers are dealing with a bevy of injuries on defense, too. Cornerbacks Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Damarious Randall are all questionable to play this week, and all three play significant roles.
The Lions have had their bye week to regroup and get ready for the Packers, and they would love nothing more than to add to Green Bay's misery by pulling off the upset here. They also want to put an end to a 24-game losing streak at Lambeau Field, which has been well documented.
Matthew Stafford has actually played pretty well at Lambeau, too, throwing 10 touchdowns against three interceptions in four career starts there. The Lions have been close in recent meetings at Lambeau, though. Their last five visits were decided by 10, 13, 7, 4 and 2 points. So, four of the five resulted in losses by 10 points or less, which would be good enough to cover this 11-point spread.
The Lions are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games following a loss by 21 points or more, and 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games off a loss by 14 or more. Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Detroit could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now due to recent results. Take the Lions Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Bears +7 v. Rams |
|
37-13 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7
Since their 26-0 loss to Detroit in Week 3 with Jimmy Clausen at QB, the Chicago Bears have been in every game they've played. Each of their last five games have been decided by 3 points or less, and they've beaten Oakland at home while also going on the road and knocking off Kansas City and Oakland. Their only losses came at Detroit (34-37) in overtime at home against Minnesota (20-23) after they allowed 10 points in the final two minutes.
Jay Cutler has been back and healthy every since that loss to the Seahawks. He is really playing well now, especially since Alshon Jeffery returned healthy. Jeffery has finished with at least 100 receiving yards in each of his last three games. He has only been able to play in four games all season, but he has still managed to catch 33 balls for 492 yards and two touchdowns in those four games. He is questionable with groin injury this week, but all signs point to him playing after he practiced on a limited basis Friday.
The St. Louis Rams have no business laying this kind of weight against a solid Chicago team. The Rams are 4-4 on the season and still feature and awful offense that is only averaging 19.1 points and 312.6 yards per game this season. The Rams are actually getting outgained by 11.1 yards per game this season.
The Bears, in spite of their 3-5 record, are actually outgaining teams by 5.2 yards per game. That's impressive with both Cutler and Jeffery missing significant time, and now Matt Forte out. John Fox has clearly had a huge influence on this team, and that's really been evident on defense. He has turned this Chicago defense into a Top 10 (9th) unit in allowing just 341.9 yards per game this season.
Only two of the Rams' four wins this season came by more than 3 points, and those were against the 49ers and Browns, who are two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bears are certainly in a different class than those two teams statistically. But the Bears just don't get a lot of love from the betting public, which is why we find them catching way too many points here. That's proven by the fact that they've gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite being an underdog in all five contests.
John Fox is 25-9 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached. Fox is 10-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as a road underdog in all games he has coached, so he knows how to carry the momentum over with his teams. Jeff Fisher is 16-35 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Jaguars +5 v. Ravens |
|
22-20 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +5
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens are coming off their bye week, but at 2-6 they have nothing to play for at this point. The Cincinnati Bengals are 8-0 within their division while the Steelers are 5-3. They aren't going to come back and challenge either team within the division, and they are pretty much out of the wildcard race unless they were to go 8-0. With the lack of talent they have, they know it's not going to happen.
The Ravens now have arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL after losing star WR Steve Smith to a season-ending Achilles injury. He suffered the injury in a 29-26 home win over the lowly Chargers last week. The other win the Ravens got came back on October 1 by a final of 23-20 against a Steelers team that was without Ben Roethlisberger and starting Michael Vick for the first time on a short week on a Thursday.
So, both of Baltimore's wins have come by just 3 points. In fact, all eight Ravens games this year were decided by 8 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer. That's a big reason why I believe we are getting such great value here with the Jaguars +5. I also like the fact that the Jaguars are playing their best football of the season coming in.
Jacksonville went to London and beat Buffalo 34-31 as 3-point underdogs. It came back following its bye week and nearly upset the Jets as 7.5-point road dogs in a 23-28 loss. The Jaguars thoroughly outplayed the Jets in that game and should have won. They outgained them 436-290 for the game, or by 146 total yards, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the game. They held the a very good Jets rushing attack to only 29 yards on 28 carries.
Blake Bortles has made some real nice progress this season in throwing for 2,193 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He should continue to find plenty of success against this awful Ravens defense that is giving up 26.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. The Ravens rank 29th in the league against the pass, allowing 283.9 yards per game through the air. They have yielded 290-plus passing yards in five of their last seven contests.
Yes, the Jaguars are also 2-6, but their outlook is much greater. They only trail the Colts by two games for first place in the AFC South. Plus, the Colts just lost QB Andrew Luck for a few games due to injury. So they have a realistic chance of coming back and winning the division. The Jaguars are only getting outgained by an average of 3.3 yards per game this season, so this team is better than their 2-6 record suggests.
Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, in November games are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the alst 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS since 1983. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Jacksonville. Bet the Jaguars Sunday.
|
11-15-15 |
Panthers v. Titans +6 |
Top |
27-10 |
Loss |
-120 |
33 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee Titans +6
At 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season, the Carolina Panthers could not have gotten off to a better start. But now we enter the second half of the season, and the Panthers have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply cannot live up to going forward. That starts this week as they are massive 6-point road favorites over the Tennessee Titans.
The Panthers are coming off four huge wins over the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers, and I cannot help but think they are gassed after those games. They beat the top two Super Bowl contenders coming into the season, and now they have a feeling of satisfaction. They also have a two-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, so I expect them to take their foot off the gas this week.
The Titans are undervalued due to their 2-6 start this season. Most teams at 2-6 wouldn't have a shot at the playoffs, but the Titans actually do. They are only two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. They picked up a season-saving win last week behind interim coach Mike Mularkey. They won 34-28 at New Orleans as 6.5-point underdogs, and I look for them to build off that momentum this week.
The Titans have been very competitive at home even though they're 0-4. Three of their four losses came by 3 points or less to Indianapolis (33-35), Buffalo (13-14) and Atlanta (7-10). They did have a 10-38 loss to the Dolphins, but Marcus Mariota was injured early in that game and they committed four turnovers as he tried playing through the pain, but was ineffective. Mariota sat out the next two games, which were losses to the Falcons and Texans.
But Mariota returned last week against the Saints to lead the Titans to a whopping 483 yards of total offense. This offense is so much better with him at the helm, it's not even close. He is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards (8.0/attempt) and 13 touchdowns against five interceptions.
One thing that's getting overlooked here is that the Titans have actually been better than the Panthers statistically on defense. The Titans rank 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 329.0 yards per game. The Panthers rank 14th in yielding 350.0 yards per game. The Panthers are only outgaining teams by 8.9 yards per game this year, which isn't the sign of a team that should be 8-0. To compare, the Titans are outgaining teams by 2.5 yards per game, which is a mark that signifies better than a 2-6 team.
Plays against favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Off that huge win over the Packers last week, it's only human nature for the Panthers to suffer a letdown here. I expect an outright upset by Tennessee, but I'll take the points for some insurance. Take the Titans Sunday.
|
11-14-15 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor -2.5 |
Top |
44-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
102 h 16 m |
Show
|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2.5
Everyone is on the Oklahoma bandwagon right now due to how dominant it has been in going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That’s evident by the fact that this line opened at Baylor -5 and has already been bet down to Baylor -2.5. There is a ton of money coming in on the Sooners right now to say the least. They have taken care of lesser opponents in Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State in their last four games.
But in their only game against the best opponent they’ve faced in Tennessee, the Sooners needed to erase a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit and were fortunate to escape with a 31-24 (OT) victory. They also had that ugly 17-24 loss to Texas in which they were outgained by 90 yards. The Sooners have to face the three best teams in the Big 12 still in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State over their final three games. Their true colors will show on the road this week as Bob Stoops just doesn't win big games any more.
Baylor isn’t getting much love right now because it lost Seth Russell and only beat Kansas State 31-24 last week. But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing a couple garbage touchdowns late. Garbage touchdowns aren’t going to work for Oklahoma with this 2.5-point spread. Plus, Baylor gets an extra two days to prepare after playing last Thursday.
True freshman Jarrett Stidham more than held his own against Kansas State in a tough road environment in his first start. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. But this guy doesn’t get rattled and has been superb while getting a chance to play in all eight games this year due the fact that Baylor has been in so many blowouts, outscoring opponents by 32.4 PPG on average.
Stidham is completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s not a downgrade from Russell at all, and nearly beat him out in fall camp. Art Briles has been raving about Stidham for good reason as he was one of the top rated QB's in the country coming out of high school as Phil Steele had him at No. 5.
Baylor’s toughest games are all ahead as well, but this team is getting punished a lot more than Oklahoma for its schedule by the voters. The fact of the matter is that the Bears have been dominant even though they’ve played an easy schedule. They lead the nation with 57.4 points and 665.6 yards pre game. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up 25.0 points, 388.4 yards per game and 5.0 per play. And a lot of those points and yards have come in garbage time with the game already decided and the backups in, otherwise the numbers would be even better.
Waco is becoming one of the toughest places to play in the country. Baylor is 29-1 at home over the past five seasons, and 26-7 ATS in its last 33 home games overall. It has won its last two home meetings with Oklahoma by finals of 41-12 (2013) as 17-point favorites and 45-38 (2011) as 16.5-point underdogs. Don’t forget, the Bears went into Norman last year and won 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs. They outgained the Sooners 544-319 for the game.
Baylor has outscored Oklahoma a combined 89-26 in their two meetings over the past two seasons. And the scary part is that this is the best team that Baylor has ever had now. This team remembers all of the bad years as the Big 12 punching bags and wants to return the favor with its continued dominance of Oklahoma in the recent history in this series.
Baylor is 9-1 ATS after leading in its last two games by 14-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. The Bears are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Oklahoma is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The Bears are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games with a total set of 70 or more points. Bet Baylor Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Oregon +10 v. Stanford |
|
38-36 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +10
Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because it is a playoff contender and it has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Teams on long ATS winning streaks like this are almost always overvalued. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that Stanford is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in backing the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.
It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State outright as underdogs in both games before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.
It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score. He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and now faces the weakness of the Stanford team, which is its secondary.
One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.
Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Roll with Oregon Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Arkansas +7.5 v. LSU |
Top |
31-14 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 18 m |
Show
|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +7.5
The LSU Tigers suffered a devastating loss to Alabama last week. Its going to be very tough for this team to come back emotionally and physically a week later. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat now that they have all but been eliminated from playoff contention as they no longer control their own destiny. That’s going to make it very tough for them to cover this 7.5-point spread at home Saturday.
Arkansas relishes the role of spoiler. It did the same thing last year with back-to-back shutouts of ranked Ole Miss and LSU teams as it was fighting to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks are fighting for that again as they sit at 5-4 and could gain bowl eligibility this week with a win. They’d love nothing more then to kick LSU while it’s down this week.
Arkansas went into Ole Miss and came away with a 53-52 road win last week to spoil the Rebels’ bid to win the SEC West. The Rebels had controlled their own destiny, and if they won out, they would have been division champs. But Brandon Allen and company were clutch late once again, earning their second overtime victory in three weeks. They also beat Auburn in four overtimes by a final of 54-46 three weeks ago.
This is an Razorbacks offense that is hitting on all cycliners right now. They scored 54 points and amassed 457 total yards against Auburn, 63 points and 591 yards against Tennessee-Martin, and 53 points and 615 yards against Ole Miss. Those numbers have obviously led to a 3-0 run over their last three games as they are once again playing their best football in the second half of the season.
LSU was way overrated coming into that Alabama game last week because it had played a very favorable schedule up to that point. Five of its first seven games were at home, and it wasn’t impressive in its two road wins at Mississippi State (21-19) and Syracuse (34-24), either. I still don’t believe this team is as good as its getting credit for from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point favorites.
Arkansas shut out LSU 17-0 at home last year behind a dominant defensive effort. The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 total yards in the win. The Tigers only managed 36 rushing yards on 32 carries. Arkansas has been stopping the run very well again this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 180 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.
Keep in mind that the 17-0 shutout last year was on the heels of an overtime loss to Alabama for LSU. So, the letdown spot following the Alabama game is real. Also note that Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. In 2013, the Razorbacks were massive 28-point road underdogs in Baton Rouge. They only lost that game 27-31 after LSU capped off a 99-yard drive TD drive with only 1:15 left on the clock.
The Razorbacks’ one weakness is their pass defense, but LSU QB Brandon Harris isn’t capable of exploiting it as he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC. LSU is only averaging 10 completions per game and 54.4 percent completions this season. Harris is a liability, and that will be a big reason that the Razorbacks hang around for four quarters and possibly pull the upset.
Arkansas is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 8 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. LSU is 10-22 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Tigers are 13-33 ATS in their last 46 November home games. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Arkansas Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Magic v. Wizards -5.5 |
|
99-108 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5
The Washington Wizards are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to Atlanta, Boston and Oklahoma City with two of those games coming on the road. Those are three of the better teams in the NBA. It's safe to say the Wizards are going to be motivated for a victory when they host the Orlando Magic tonight.
This is a great spot for the Wizards, who have had three full days off since that Oklahoma City loss. This will also be just their 2nd game in 7 days. The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be by far the more tired team heading into this one.
Orlando beat Utah last night, so it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. This will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Magic, which is just absolutely brutal. I look for them to come out flat in this game and to not be able to match the intensity and energy of the Wizards.
Washington has simply owned Orlando, going 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings. The Wizards have won each of their seven home meetings with Orlando all by 5 points or more. They have won those seven meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game. I fully expect them to win their 8th straight home meeting with the Magic, and for it to come by 6-plus points with ease. Take the Wizards Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Clemson v. Syracuse +29.5 |
|
37-27 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +29.5
First and foremost, this is a massive letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers. They finally ended their Florida State's run as division champs last week, locking up the Atlantic Division title in the process. It's only human nature for the Tigers to come out flat this week off such an emotional win, and I believe they will.
Secondly, Clemson is already overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking. I took advantage last week and backed Florida State catching double-digits, which was a ridiculous line as it was. This was a 13-13 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers scored the final 10 points to win 23-13, but the Seminoles were never in jeopardy of not covering.
Now oddsmakers are asking Clemson to go on the road and win this game by more than four touchdowns to cover this 29.5-point spread. Just how rare is a 4 TD road favorite in conference games? FSU's Jimbo Fisher has only been a 4 TD road favorite twice, Oregon in the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era three times, and Bob Stoops in his 17 years at Oklahoma only four times. Nick Saban has never been favored by four touchdowns on the road in SEC play, and Baylor hasn't laid four scores on the road in league play against anyone other than Kansas.
The difference here is that Syracuse is actually a decent team, especially at home. The Orange are 3-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to ranked LSU and Pittsburgh teams. They only lost 24-34 at as 23-point dogs to LSU and 20-23 as 8-point dogs to Pitt. And this game? This is the National Championship for the Orange, who would make their season with an upset bid here. While that is probably unlikely, you can expect the Orange to be laying it all on the line for four quarters. The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who think they just have to show up to win this one.
I think the injury to Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey is being overblown here. He suffered his third head injury of the season against Louisville last week and has been ruled out. But that could be a blessing in disguise. Backup QB Zach Mahoney has more than held his own. He has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while also providing a threat as a runner, averaging 5.7 per carry on nine attempts.
Mahoney finished off the 30-27 win over Central Michigan back on September 19. Then, he started and played the entire game against LSU, which was arguably Syracuse's best performance of the season. Mahoney actually threw for 154 yards and three touchdowns against that LSU defense. He also threw a TD pass on the final possession of the game against Louisville last week after Dungey was knocked out. This guy isn't a downgrade from Dungey one bit.
Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in its previous game, winning in this spot by 11.0 points per game on average. Last year, Syracuse only lost 6-16 at Clemson as 17-point underdogs. The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Clemson is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 road games vs a team with a losing record. The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their five home games this year. The Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Take Syracuse Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Virginia +14 v. Louisville |
|
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +14
This line actually opened at 8.5 in some places and has been bet all the way up to 14. This move is clearly an overreaction from Louisville's 41-17 home win over Syracuse last week. The betting public is quick to forget that Louisville's previous three games were far from impressive.
Indeed, it started with a 21-41 loss at Florida State as 6.5-point dogs in an absolute blowout in favor of the Seminoles. Then, the Cardinals failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites over Boston College in a narrow 17-14 win. The week prior to playing Syracuse, Louisville only won 20-19 at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites. Wake Forest and Boston College both are worse teams than this underrated Virginia squad.
Virginia is undervalued right now due to its 3-6 record this year. But this team has been better than its record would indicate with a ton of narrow losses this season. The Cavaliers only lost 27-34 at home to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs after a last-second TD by the Fighting Irish. They also only lost on the road to a ranked Pitt team 19-26 as 8-point dogs, at ranked UNC 13-26 as 16-point dogs, and at Miami 21-27 as 6.5-points dogs.
In fact, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road this season. They lost by 18 to UCLA, by 13 to UNC, by 7 to Pitt and by 6 to Miami. I would ranked UCLA and UNC as better teams than Louisville, and Pitt and Miami as near equals to the Cardinals. Even in that 13-point loss to UNC, the Cavaliers committed five turnovers and gave the game away. Yet they still only lost by 13 with those five turnovers.
Virginia still realistically believes it can make a bowl game with a win Saturday. That's entirely possible because the Cavaliers host both Duke and Virginia Tech to close out the season, which are two very beatable teams. So the Cavaliers won't be lacking any motivation this week. They won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs to Louisville last year. I look for them to give the Cardinals a run for their money again in the rematch.
Louisville is 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49. With the total set at 47.5 this week, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair. That certainly favored the underdog catching 14 points here in what should be a closely-contested battle throughout. The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. winning teams. Bet Virginia Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Ohio State v. Illinois OVER 55 |
Top |
28-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* College Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ohio State/Illinois OVER 55
Ohio State is coming off an ugly, low-scoring affair in a 28-14 win over Minnesota last week. That low output from both teams has the oddsmakers setting this total lower than it should be. This is one of my favorite college football totals of the season as Ohio State may score 55 points on its own.
Cardale Jones had to start at QB for Ohio State last week due to a 1-game suspension of J.T. Barrett. Jones struggled again, which he has all season, so it was no surprise. But Barrett is going to return this week, and it's well documented how much better this Ohio State offense has been with him at the helm.
Barrett has only started one game this season, which was a 49-7 win at Rutgers. He completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 101 yards and two more scores. I expect him to have a monster day Saturday as he is out to make amends to his team for his lack in judgment in getting suspended in the first place.
Illinois is going to do its part in helping aid this OVER. The Fighting Illini are coming off their best offensive output of the season, scoring 48 points and racking up 595 yards of total offense in a win over Purdue last week. They rushed for 382 yards as a team, and stud RB Josh Ferguson played his first game since October 3, carrying 12 times for 133 yards in the win. Having Ferguson back healthy for this offense I believe is getting overlooked here.
Just look at the last three meetings between these teams, and you'll love the OVER as well. Ohio State and Illinois have combined for 69, 95 and 74 points in their last three meetings. That's an average of 79.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points more than today's posted total of 55.
Ohio State has done most of the heavy lifting in those three games over the past three seasons. It scored 55 points and gained 545 yards last year, scored 60 points and gained 591 yards in 2013, and scored 52 points and gained 567 yards in 2012. As you can see, it has nearly covered the 55-point total itself in these three games. But Illinois has its best offense in quite some time this year with QB Wes Lunt throwing for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions this year.
Ohio State is 9-1 to the OVER after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (at least 4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-9 (80.4%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|
11-14-15 |
Purdue +15 v. Northwestern |
|
14-21 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +15
This is the first time since 2013 that Northwestern has been a double-digit Big Ten favorite. They lost outright the last time they were laying this kind of weight in a conference game. With wins over Nebraska and Penn State by a combined four points in their last two games, the betting public is back to overvaluing this the Wildcats this week laying more than two touchdowns to Purdue.
At the same time, Purdue comes in undervalued after getting crushed at home by Illinois last week 48-14. The betting public is quick to forget that Purdue beat Nebraska 55-45 at home the previous week as 7.5-point underdogs. David Blough is a good young quarterback, and he threw for 274 yards and four TDs in that win over the Huskers.
What I really like about this play is that Purdue has gone on the road and covered the spread against Michigan State and Wisconsin already this season, and both of those teams are better than Northwestern. Purdue only lost 21-24 at Michigan State as 23-point underdogs and 7-24 at Wisconsin as identical 23-point dogs.
It's tough for teams with such poor offenses like Northwestern to put away teams by double-digits. The Wildcats are only averaging 21.1 points and 338.9 yards per game this year. Take out their 41-point effort against Eastern Illinois, and they are only putting up 18.6 points per game. They have been held to an average of 281.4 yards per game and 4.2 per play in Big Ten action.
Yes, Northwestern won 38-14 at Purdue last year, but this is a much better Purdue team than last year's version. Plus, the Boilermakers gave that game away by committing five turnovers. In their last trip to Evanston, the Boilermakers won 20-17 outright as 8-point underdogs. I wouldn't rule out the outright upset here, either.
Pat Fitzgerald is only 12-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Northwestern. Fitzgerald is 3-14 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of the Wildcats. The Boilermakers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Northwestern is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games, which includes a 24-19 win over lowly Ball State as 17.5-point favorites this year. Roll with Purdue Saturday.
|
11-13-15 |
Cal Poly v. UNLV -6.5 |
Top |
72-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* CBB 2015 Season Opening BEST BET on UNLV -6.5
The UNLV Rebels were much better than their 18-15 record and 8-10 mark in Mountain West play indicated last year. They lost three times to league champ San Diego State by a combined 11 points. They covered 11 of their last 13 games to close out the season, and I look for that momentum to carry over into 2015.
Head coach Dave Rice is on the hot seat as his team didn't live up to expectations last year, but he's still 89-47 in his four seasons here. He also delivered another Top 10 recruiting class nationally. Freshman forward Derrick Jones chose UNLV over UConn, Kentucky and Kansas. Fellow freshman Stephen Zimmerman is a five-star center from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High and a Top 10 recruit.
The Rebels do have two returning starters too in guard Patrick McGraw (9.6 ppg, 2.7 apg), F/C Goodluck Okonoboh (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpb), and a couple of key reserves ready for bigger roles in sophomore guard Jordan Cornish and sophomore forward Dwayne Morgan. Both players will see increased minutes due to the losses of Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood, who left early for the NBA.
Cal Paly went just 13-16 last season and is only picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West this year. They do return three starters, but none of them averaged more than 11.5 points per game last year. This team is simply going to be overmatched talent-wise and will struggled to keep this game close.
UNLV does have a nice home-court advantage as it went 13-4 and outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game inside the Thomas & Mack Center. Cal Poly went just 6-12 on the road last year where it scored only 58.3 points per game. Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents. Roll with UNLV Friday.
|
11-13-15 |
Eastern Washington v. Mississippi State -10 |
|
88-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -10
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country. This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.
Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games. Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville. He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's. His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.
Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Trvis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).
So, nearly the entire team returns from last year. Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era. Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit. He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA. Newman may be on a minutes limit tonight because he's recovering from a toe injury, but it's not going to matter.
Eastern Washington comes into 2015-16 overvalued due to its 26-9 season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year. But four starters are gone from that team, including Tyler Harvey (23.1 ppg), who left a year early for the NBA. Also gone are three other starters who averaged 9.7, 9.7 and 7.7 points per game, respectively. It's safe to say that the Eagles are rebuilding in 2015 with just one starter back.
Howland is 81-51 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in all games he has coached with his teams winning by 17.9 points per game on average. Bet Mississippi State Friday.
|
11-13-15 |
USC v. Colorado OVER 59 |
|
27-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* USC/Colorado ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59
USC features one of the best offenses in the country and will score at will on this Colorado defense. The Trojans are averaging 37.4 points and 480.1 yards per game this season. They'll be up against a Colorado defense that's giving up 36.2 points and 486.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play.
Colorado does have an underrated offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 425.0 yards per game this season. The Buffaloes have put up 31 points on Arizona and 31 pints on UCLA this year, and they can find some success against a USC defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game in its last four contests.
But what really makes me like this OVER is the recent history between these teams. USC and Colorado combined for 86 points in a 56-28 Trojans' victory last year, and 76 points in a 47-29 Trojans' win two years ago. Cody Kessler threw seven touchdown passes against this Colorado defense last season.
Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last two seasons. We're seeing an average of 74.0 points per game scored in these games. Three of USC's four games have seen 66 or more combined points since offensive coordinator Clay Helton was promoted to head coach. Four of Colorado's six games in Pac-12 play have seen 65 or more combined points. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|
11-13-15 |
Hornets v. Bulls -6.5 |
|
97-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -6.5
The Chicago Bulls have had three full days off in between games since their 111-88 road win at Philadelphia on Monday. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight because of all this time off, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
Chicago will also have extra incentive coming into this one after suffering its worst loss of the season in a 105-130 setback at Charlotte on November 3. The Hornets just couldn't miss, hitting 14 of-23 (60.9%) from 3-point range in that game. That's obviously not going to happen again here, especially with the Bulls extra motivated to put forth a much better defensive effort this time around.
The Hornets are overvalued here due to winning and covering in each of their last two games. They beat Minnesota on the road 104-95 as the Timberwolves were without three starters in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Garnett. The Timberwolves haven't won at home yet this season, either. Then they were lucky to beat the Knicks 95-93 at home last time out as Kristaps Porzingis' potential game-winning 3-pointer was ruled to have come after the buzzer.
Chicago is 28-11 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, including 18-6 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more during this same time frame. The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home meetings with the Hornets. Take the Bulls Friday.
|
11-13-15 |
Hawks v. Celtics +1 |
Top |
93-106 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +1
The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season. They should not be road favorites over the Boston Celtics, who I have pegged as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.
The Celtics are just 3-4, but they have played a tough schedule with their losses coming against Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (twice). But the Celctis' three wins have all come by 16 points or more, and they are actually outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game in spite of their losing record. The Hawks are only outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game with their 8-2 record for comparison's sake.
As you can see, Atlanta has already played 10 games this season, while Boston has only played seven. That makes the Celtics the fresher team right now as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days. Atlanta will actually be playing its 7th game in 11 days.
The Celtics are 28-8 in their last 36 home meetings with the Hawks, including 6-2 in their last eight. Boston is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days. The Celtics are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 games following a home loss by 10 or more points. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|
11-12-15 |
Bills v. Jets -2.5 |
Top |
22-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -2.5
The Jets are going to want revenge from getting embarrassed by the Bills in both meetings last season. The good news is that they now have the talent to get that revenge as they are a much more complete squad this year. They have gotten off to a 5-3 start this season and are a legitimate playoff contender due to their improved offense and lockdown defense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the best signings of the entire offseason from any team. He is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,790 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He was knocked out of the game early in their loss to the Raiders two weeks ago, but returned last week to throw for 274 yards and two touchdowns without an interception to lead the Jets to a 28-23 win over the Jaguars at home.
Fitzpatrick leads an underrated Jets offense that actually ranks 11th at 365.9 yards per game. The Jets are also 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 323.2 yards per game. They rank 6th in the league in yardage differential at +42.6 yards per game. The Bills are only 18th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. They average 350.5 on offense and give up 353.3 on defense.
I believe this line is lower than it should be for the simple fact that the Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games. But they were in bad spots in both games. They had to travel out to the West Coast to face Oakland a week after a heartbreaking loss to New England that had to be tough to recover from. Then they faced a Jacksonville team last week that was coming off its bye week, yet still won 28-23 as 7.5-point favorites.
At the same time, Buffalo is overvalued due to its 33-17 win over Miami last week. That game was closer than the final score as the Bills only outgained the Dolphins by 23 yards. The Bills were also in a good spot last week because they were coming off their bye week. I just can’t help but think this line is lower than it should be due to recent results against the spread for both teams.
But I’m not nearly as forgiving as the betting public is over one good performance from the Bills that followed poor outings. Remember, the Bills lost three of their previous four games before that win over Miami. They were blown out by both the Giants (10-24) and Bengals (21-34) at home, and they also lost to the Jaguars (31-34) in London. Their only win during that stretch was extremely fortunate in a 14-13 win at Tennessee. They trailed 10-0 until the end of the 3rd quarter and were outgained by 67 yards by the Titans.
New York has taken care of business at home this season, going 3-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Its only home loss came back in Week 3 in a 17-24 setback to Philadelphia. But the Jets gave that game away by committing four turnovers. Those turnovers, plus an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles, were the difference. The Jets actually outgained the Eagles by 92 yards in that game, and they’ve outgained six of their eight opponents this year.
Buffalo is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 games off a home win over a division opponent. The Bills are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more over a division foe as well. The Jets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite. The Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|
11-12-15 |
Jazz v. Heat OVER 183.5 |
|
91-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Jazz OVER 183.5
It's no surprise that the Jazz played in their highest-scoring game of the season last time out with their 114-118 loss at Cleveland. Rudy Gobert got hurt in that game, and he's their defensive stopper who is averaging 3.4 blocks per game. X-rays on Gobert's ankle were negative, but there's a good chance he doesn't play in this game, which would force the Jazz to play small ball.
I believe there's value with this low 183.5-point total because the oddsmakers have been forced to set it too low due to Miami going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games overall. But all previous Miami totals this season have been set at 191 points or more, so this is by far the lowest Miami total of the season. It's also the second-lowest Utah total this year.
The recent history in this series really makes me like the OVER. The Heat and Jazz have combined for at least 183 points in each of their last 10 meetings, and 188 or more points in 9 of those. They have averaged 201.9 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 183.5.
Utah is 70-38 to the OVER in its last 108 road games after scoring 110 points or more. Miami is 17-4 OVER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 over the last three seasons. The Heat are 15-2 OVER in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Miami. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|
11-12-15 |
Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech UNDER 53.5 |
|
23-21 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* VA Tech/GA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 53.5
While I don’t see a ton of value in the spread as both teams have been wildly inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I do believe there is value with the UNDER 53.5 points in this game. Neither team has lit it up offensively this season, but both feature better-than-average defenses. And their familiarity with one another is what makes the under such a great play.
Virginia Tech is giving up 24.3 points and 345 yards per game this season, while Georgia Tech is allowing 26.1 points and 365 yards per game. The Hokies are holding opposing offenses to 27 yards below their season averages, while the Yellow Jackets are holding foes to 39 yards below their season averages. Both teams are only average offensively with the Hokies putting up 373 yards per game and the Yellow Jackets 403 yards per game.
You have to consider that Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers would be even better and its offensive numbers even worse if not for a 3-OT thriller against Duke two games back. This was a 24-24 game at the end of regulation before the Blue Devils eventually won 45-43. Aside from that game, VA Tech held Pitt to 13 points, NC State to 13, and Boston College to 10 in three of its past five contests.
Georgia Tech has been improving defensively as the season has gone on. It held Florida State to just 16 points and 280 total yards two games ago, which is no small feat. This team is desperate to win its final three games to keep its bowl streak alive. I look for the Yellow Jackets to play another inspired effort defensively at home in this one and to shut down this lackluster VA Tech offense.
The head-to-head history in recent years tells the story. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They’ve combined for 51, 27, 37, 63, 49, 51, 37 and 30 points in the last eight meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 43.1 combined points per game, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total of 53.5. That's why there's so much value with this UNDER tonight.
Virginia Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is 21-8 UNDER in its last 29 Thursday games. The UNDER is 18-3 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hokies last five games following a bye week. Both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses and will aid the UNDER here. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
11-11-15 |
Spurs v. Blazers OVER 202 |
|
113-101 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* Spurs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 202
I look for some offensive fireworks tonight between the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers. These are two of the better offenses in the NBA this season, and I expect each to reach the 100-point mark as this one easily goes over the number.
Portland ranks 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 104.1 points per 100 possessions. The Blazers play small ball this year with two of the most underrated guards in the NBA in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollumn. They have scored at least 103 points in each of their last five games coming in. BUt their defense has given up an average of 114.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Detroit and Denver.
San Antonio comes in ranked 8th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 102.5 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are starting to get comfortable with LaMarcus Aldridge, averaging 110.0 points per game in back-to-back wins over Charlotte and Sacramento.
The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, all of which took place last season. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203, 248, 206 and 206 points in the four meetings. That's an average of 215.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 13.8 more than tonight's posted total of 202. I will note that one of those games was in overtime, though, but these teams still had no problem exceeding 202 points when they got together last year, and the Blazers aren't as good defensively this year while the Spurs are better offensively.
Portland is 14-3 to the OVER versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 43% or lower over the last three seasons. San Antonio is 15-4 to the OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 23-9 to the OVER as an underdog over the last two years. The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Portland. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|
11-11-15 |
Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 200 |
Top |
100-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Grizzlies Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 200
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, who are known for playing in low-scoring games when they get together. There's no question that the Grizzlies are going to be out for revenge following their 119-69 loss to Golden State earlier this season, and I believe their intensity on the defensive end will lead to the UNDER.
The Grizzlies are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season. They like to play slow-it-down ball and run their offense through Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, which leads to low-scoring games on the regular. Memphis ranks 27th in pace at 96.2 possessions per game, and 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.2 points per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies will control the tempo playing at home tonight.
These teams are very familiar with one another after playing in the Western Conference playoffs last year, and already playing once this season. The UNDER is 8-2 in all meetings between these teams dating back to last year. They have combined for less than 200 points in six of their last seven meetings. They have averaged 187.7 combined points in their last seven meetings, which is 12.3 points less than tonight's posted total of 200, which is also where the value comes in here.
The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 game s overall. The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Warriors last 68 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes. The UNDER is 44-16-1 in Grizzlies last 61 games overall. The UNDER is 21-6 in Grizzlies last 27 games following an ATS win. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
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11-11-15 |
Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 |
|
41-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
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15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +3
This is a Western Michigan team that I picked to win the MAC this season with all they had returning. They had 16 starters back and were a loss to NIU in the season finale away from playing in the title game last year. So far, they haven’t disappointed this season, going 5-0 within the conference and needing to keep winning to make sure that they aren’t left out this season.
Offensively, the Broncos have been explosive, averaging 38.0 points, 485.8 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.9 points, 425 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Zach Terrell is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. The Broncos also average 208 rushing yards per game, and their balance offensively will be key in keeping Matt Johnson and the Bowling Green offense off the field.
Bowling Green also has an explosive offense, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Western Michigan is much better on that side of the ball, giving up 389.2 yards per game. Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 yards per game this season for comparison’s sake. I simply look for the Broncos to get more stops in this one and for that to be the difference.
Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week. Western Michigan beat Ball State 54-7, while Bowling Green thumped Ohio 62-24. The difference is that the Broncos’ game was actually a blowout, while the Falcons’ game was not. WMU outgained Ball State 711-152 for the game, or by a ridiculous 559 total yards. Bowling Green only outgained Ohio 581-543, or by 38 total yards. That game against the Bobcats was much closer than the final score showed. Keep in mind that Western Michigan beat Ohio 49-14 on the road, outgaining the Bobcats by 213 yards in the process. Ohio is the lone common opponent between these teams.
It has been a long string of dominance for the Broncos, who have won five straight coming into this one dating back to their 41-39 home win over Central Michigan. They went on to beat Ohio 49-14 on the road while outgaining them by 213 yards, beat Miami Ohio 35-13 at home, beat Eastern Michigan 58-28 on the road, and beat Ball State 54-7 at home. The only losses the Broncos have suffered this year have come against three of the better teams in the country in Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State.
Western Michigan has owned Bowling Green in recent years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Broncos topped the Falcons 26-14 on the road last year while outgaining them 361-274. Terrell threw two touchdown passes while Javion Franklin rushed for 149 yards and a score in the win. The Broncos held the Falcons to just 274 total yards and 14 first downs. Their better defense will be the difference in this game as well.
Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Roll with Western Michigan Wednesday.
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11-10-15 |
Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 211.5 |
|
105-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
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15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Pelicans UNDER 211.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are 0-6 and in desperate need of a win. They only way they are going to get one is if they start playing better defense. These players know that, and I look for their best defensive effort of the season tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks.
"We have to come out and compete to a level where the game's over and we're drained," All-Star Anthony Davis said. "We're not doing that right now. We've got to find a way to compete for the whole 48 (minutes)."
The Pelicans have been decimated by injuries this season, so their offense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders, either. Anthony Davis has been double-teamed and asked to do too much. Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are all shooting less than 42 percent. These four just aren't getting enough help and there is a lot of pressure on them to deliver.
Dallas is a team full of veterans who don't like to run the floor as much as they used to. As a result, the Mavericks are averaging just 99.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting. Deron Williams, Wesley Mathews and Chandler Parsons are all on minutes restrictions right now as they work their way back from injuries. Dirk Nowitzki also plays fewer and fewer minutes every year.
One thing I really love about this UNDER is the fact that these teams just played three days ago, and then had two days off and will play again tonight. The Mavs won that game 107-98 for 205 combined points only after a 35-28 fourth quarter. These teams are now obviously very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses in this home-and-home situation. Dallas also won the previous meeting 102-93 for 195 combined points.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavs last five games overall. The UNDER is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Pelicans last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-3 in Pelicans last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
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11-10-15 |
Toledo v. Central Michigan +4.5 |
Top |
28-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
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20* Toledo/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan +4.5
The Central Michigan Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.
I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.
Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.
Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.
I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.
Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.
Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win. Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.
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11-09-15 |
Grizzlies v. Clippers UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
92-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
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20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 199.5
The books have set the bar too high in this matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers. I'll gladly back the UNDER as these teams don't come close to reaching 200 combined points tonight.
For starters, both teams are dealing with some injuries to their most important offensive players. The Clippers are expected to be without Chris Paul, who is doubtful with a groin injury. Zach Randolph is the Grizzlies' go-to guy offensively, but he's questionable with a calf injury.
This has been a very low-scoring series even when players have been healthy for both teams. The Grizzlies and Clippers have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings. That includes 180, 176 and 177 combined points in their last three. They have averaged 185.2 combined points in those six meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.
Both teams are going to be playing with more intensity than normal in this game. That's because the Grizzlies have lost two straight coming in, while the Clippers have also lost two straight. That added intensity will show up on the defensive end more than anything.
The Grizzlies rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.2 possessions per game. They are a slow-it-down team that cashes a lot of UNDER tickets because they are also 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 94.1 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers won't play with as much pace as they normally would with Paul. Austin Rivers is one of the worst backup point guards in the NBA.
Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 43-16-1 in Grizzlies last 60 games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
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11-09-15 |
Bears +4.5 v. Chargers |
|
22-19 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
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15* Bears/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +4.5
Neither of these teams have gotten off to the start that they wanted. Both could easily be better than what they are with some better fortune in close games as the Bears are just 2-5 while the Chargers are 2-6. I believe there’s a good chance this game is close as well, which is why there’s some nice line value with getting the Bears as 4.5-point underdogs in this one.
The Bears are dealing with a couple injuries, mainly to Matt Forte, but otherwise are relatively healthy. But the Chargers are a complete mash unit right now. Almost half of their starters are hurt right now and either out or questionable. That includes WR Keenan Allen, T King Dunlap, CB Brandon Flowers, DE Corey Liuget, TE Ladarius Green, S Eric Weddle, LB Denzel Perryman, G Orlando Franklin and LB Manti Te’o. With so many injuries to key players, the Chargers just cannot be trusted to cover this 4-point spread.
The Chargers have just had a knack for playing in close games because their defense cannot stop anyone. Seven of their eight games have been decided by 8 points or less, with the lone exception being a 14-31 loss at Minnesota. Their only two wins have come against Detroit (33-28) and Cleveland (30-27) at home, and we know how bad those teams have been this season with the Lions at 1-7 and the Browns at 2-7.
The Chargers rank 27th in scoring defense at 28.4 points per game allowed and 31st in yards per play at 6.3 allowed. The Bears have actually been respectable defensively, ranking 9th in the league in total defense at 342.3 yards per game allowed. I bet there aren’t too many people out there that realize John Fox has turned this into a Top 10 defense, but that’s a fact.
I really like this matchup for the Bears, who rank 4th in the NFL against the pass (214.3 yards/game). The Chargers only throw the football and aren’t a threat to run as they rank 1st in the NFL in passing (336.9 yards/game) and 29th in rushing (86.4 yards/game). The Bears have actually held five opponents to less than 200 passing yards. They only gave up 189 to the Packers, 185 to the Cardinals, and 173 to the Raiders, which are three of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen cannot be overstated. He was by far the biggest playmaker on this San Diego offense up to this point. Allen has 67 receptions for 725 yards and four touchdowns this year. Danny Woodhead is 2nd on the team in receiving with 39 receptions for 443 yards and two scores, and he’s a running back. So the loss of Allen is absolutely huge because he was Rivers’ comfort blanket on third down. There is no replacement for him on this roster.
Chicago’s last four games have all been decided by a field goal or less. I could easily see that streak extending to five here, but I actually like their chances to win now that Jay Cutler has his best weapon in Alshon Jeffery back. The offense has thrived in the three games with Jeffery. The Bears racked up 402 yards with Jeffery in the lineup in Week 1 against the Packers, 444 yards in Week 7 against the Vikings, and 305 yards in Week 8 against the Vikings. That output against Minnesota wasn’t great, but the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Jeffery has 23 receptions for 341 yards and two touchdowns in two-plus games this year.
The Bears are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS against the Chargers in their last six meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 83-40 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. The Bears are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West opponents. Bet the Bears Monday.
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11-08-15 |
Suns v. Thunder -8 |
Top |
103-124 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
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20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They opened the season 3-0 and were rolling, but then they hit a tough part of their schedule. They had to play a stretch of four games in five nights, which didn't go well for them.
After beating the Nuggets 117-93 at home to start that stretch, the Thunder lost 105-110 at Houston the next night. They also lost 98-103 at home to Toronto before falling 98-104 at Chicago. They had their chances to win all three games, but instead they have lost three straight coming in. Now they have had two days off after last playing on Thursday and will come back refreshed and ready to go tonight.
The Phoenix Suns are 3-3 and have played decently, but their three wins have come against the worst three teams they've played in the Blazers (twice) and Kings (without DeMarcus Cousins). Their three losses have come to Dallas (95-111), the Clippers (96-102) and Detroit (92-100) against the three best teams they've played.
The Thunder won three of four meetings with the Suns last year, including a 112-88 win in their first home contest as similar 7.5-point favorites. Oklahoma City is 142-103 ATS in tis last 245 games following a loss. Look for an inspired effort from the Thunder that leads to a double-digit home victory. Take the Thunder Sunday.
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