20* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +15.5

Certainly, a 20-25 home loss to FCS opponent Northern Iowa is concerning for Iowa State. The Cyclones clearly didn’t play their best game, and that wasn’t the way that former Toledo coach Matt Campbell wanted to start his tenure in Ames.

But I’m not going to look too much into that result. Iowa State always played Iowa tough, and it will be even more determined this week after that loss. Not to mention, Northern Iowa is one of the best FCS teams in the country as it was ranked No. 3 coming into the season.

Plus, Iowa has just as much reason to be concerned even though it beat Miami (Ohio) 45-21 last week. The Redhawks basically gave that game away by committing three turnovers that set the Hawkeyes up with great scoring opportunities.

In fact, Iowa was actually outgained by Miami (Ohio) by 20 yards. The defense gave up 424 total yards and 25 first downs to the Redhawks, while Iowa only managed 404 total yards and 17 first downs. That was a Miami team that went a combined 5-31 over the past three seasons.

I believe Iowa remains overvalued early in the season after going 12-0 in the regular season last year.  It failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites against Miami in the opener.  That game was clearly closer than the final score would indicate when you look at the stats.  At the same time, Iowa State is undervalued off a 3-9 season and a loss to UNI in its opener.  It’s the perfect storm value-wise.

I still think Iowa State is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Campbell had 13 starters back and this team had a great offseason. The offense is loaded with studs at the skill positions in QB Joel Lanning, RB Mike Warren and WR Allen Lazard. The defense had eight starters back this year and will be improved.

The key here is that Iowa State always plays Iowa tough. In fact, Iowa State is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings. All five meetings were decided by 14 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer, so getting 15 points is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The road team has won each of the last four meetings outright while going 4-0 ATS.

Plays on a road team (IOWA ST) – after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Iowa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite. The Cyclones are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -124

The New York Mets are on a tear right now as they have won six straight to get into the wild card if the season were to end today.  I look for them to keep rolling against the hapless Atlanta Braves at a generous price of only -124 road favorites.

Bartolo Colon remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 13-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 28 starts this season, 8-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 14 road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts.  Colon has owned the Braves, going 9-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.  He has given up only one earned run in 15 innings in two starts against the Braves in 2016.

John Gant has held his own in limited action this season with a 1-2 record and a 3.80 ERA over five starts.  However, he has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in his last three starts.  Gant is also 0-1 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.738 WHIP in two home starts this season.

Colon is 13-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Mets are 20-8 in Colon's last 28 starts vs. NL East foes.  The Braves are 22-45 in their last 67 home games.  Atlanta is 0-5 in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 10-2 in its last 12 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the Mets Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Vanderbilt -4.5

Vanderbilt's 13-10 loss to South Carolina in its opener has it undervalued heading into this home showdown with Conference-USA foe Middle Tennessee State.  This is a very short number for an SEC team at home against a C-USA opponent.

I still believe Vanderbilt is going to be much better in 2016.  Derek Mason is in Year 3 and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back while losing only 16 letter winners.

The Commodores were better than their 4-8 record would indicate last year as they took both Ole Miss and Florida down to the wire on the road.  Their defense gave up only 21.0 points per game last year and returned seven starters from that unit.

The offense will be improved, too, even after that poor performance against South Carolina in which they blew a 10-0 lead after it looked like they were going to roll early.  Ralph Webb rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last year and should get on track this week.  Webb went for 97 yards against South Carolina last week.

Middle Tennessee went 7-6 last year and has just 12 starters and 40 lettermen back while losing 30 letter winners.  The Blue Raiders are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team from Conference-USA, but they're a big step down in competition from South Carolina.

Yes, Middle Tennessee is coming off a 55-0 shutout victory over Alabama A&M, but it was a 47.5-point favorite in that game.  That's not as impressive as it looks.  The step up in competition this week will be felt.

Last year, Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Middle Tennessee 17-13 as 2-point underdogs.  It outgained the Blue Raiders 414-320 for the game, or by 94 total yards.  The Commodores rushed for 237 yards in that contest and will have their way on the ground again.

Middle Tennessee only has five starters back on defense and loses each of its top four tacklers from last year.  Head coach Rick Stockstill clearly doesn't make defending the run a priority.  The Blue Raiders have given up at least 183 rushing yards per game in five of the past six seasons.

Vanderbilt knows it is better than it showed against South Carolina and will be highly motivated to prove it at home Saturday.  This line is dropping because bettors don't like what they saw from Vanderbilt last week, and they are overreacting to MTSU's win over Alabama A&M.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1992.


The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. C-USA opponents.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC foes.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke -5

Wake Forest was supposed to be better entering Year 3 under Dave Clawson.  Well, that's clearly not the case after it only beat Tulane 7-3 at home as 14-point favorites.

That's really bad when you consider that Tulane went 3-9 last year and has a first-year head coach this season.  This is a Tulane team that gave up 36.3 points per game last year.

Wake had a terrible offense last year in scoring just 17.4 points per game.  It's terrible once again as the Demon Deacons only managed 7 points and 175 total yards against Tulane.  The Green Wave actually outgained them by 105 yards for the game.

Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country year in and year out under David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils have gone a combined 28-13 over the past three-plus years.

The Blue Devils got off to a great start to their 2016 season by beating NC Central 49-6 and outgaining them by 423 yards in the process, taking care of business just as they were expected to, and unlike Wake Forest.

Duke has had Wake Forest's number in recent year.  It has won four straight meetings, including a 41-21 victory in its lone home meeting.  All four wins came by 6 points or more.  Duke is now 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Demon Deacons.  The Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.

Only having to lay 5 points on the clearly superior team at home is a gift from oddsmakers.  Wake has gone 3-9 each of the past two seasons and doesn't appear to be getting much better after that woeful performance against Tulane last week.  Roll with Duke Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +17

There’s no question that a home loss to Southern Miss is a little concerning for Kentucky fans, but considering they were only 3.5-point favorites, it shouldn’t be that much of a shocker.

This was a Southern Miss team that returned 13 starters and 55 lettermen from a team that went 9-5 and made the Conference USA Championship Game. That includes sensational QB Nick Mullens, who threw for 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last year.

And the Wildcats were dominating this game with a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to play in the first half. They completely fell apart from that point-forward, getting outscored 34-0 the rest of the way by the Golden Eagles.

I still come away with some positives as Kentucky’s offense really got going behind talented sophomore Drew Barker, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns. This is an offense that returned nine starters from last year, and Barker wasn’t even one of them. This offense can keep them in the game against Florida.

Yes, Kentucky’s defense left a lot to be desired, but the good news is that its up against a Florida team that once again has no offense in 2016. I’m way more concerned with Florida’s lackluster 24-7 opening win against UMass as 34.5-point favorites than Kentucky’s loss to Southern Miss.

Florida is a team I am way down on this year. It got very lucky to win the SEC East last year with so many close wins. Five of its 10 wins came by a touchdown or less, including a 31-24 home win over ECU, a fluke 28-27 home win over Tennessee, an ugly 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, and a 20-14 (OT) win at home against Florida Atlantic.

In fact, the Gators only outgained teams last year by 24 yards per game and outscored them by 4.9 points per game.  There's no way they should have won 10 games with those numbers.  The Gators’ true colors showed against the big boys in their final three games with a 25-point loss to Florida State, a 14-point loss to Alabama, and a 34-point loss to Michigan in the bowl game.

Florida’s offense managed just 334 yards per game and 23.2 points per game last season. That offense looked shaky in the 24-7 win over UMass again. The Gators only managed 363 total yards, including 107 rushing and 3.7 per carry.

The Gators were only leading UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter before winning the 4th 14-0 to pull away. This was a UMass team that went just 3-9 with 19 starters back last year, and it only returned 10 starters this year. It’s also a team that gave up 31.4 points and 448 yards per game to opponents last year.

Kentucky will be highly motivated to end its 29-game losing streak to Florida; the longest active streak in the country. It has come close each of the last two years. It lost 30-36 (OT) at Florida as 17.5-point dogs in 2014, and 9-14 at home as 3.5-point dogs last year. The Wildcats weren’t overmatched in either game, and they certainly won’t be overmatched enough to lose by more than 17 points in this 2016 meeting.

Florida is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the past three seasons. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3

The Kansas Jayhawks come into the 2016 season way undervalued after going 0-12 last year.  I have no doubt they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country with 16 starters back after having only six starters back in David Beaty's first season in 2015.

Beaty has done all the right things in Lawrence this offseason to improve this team.  Their strength training, which is well documented, will pay huge dividends.  They are bigger, stronger and faster this season, and several players who were forced into action as underclassmen last year are now a year older.

The improvements couldn't have shown more than they did in a 55-6 victory over Rhode Island in their opener.  Their three quarterbacks combined for six touchdown passes as they racked up 570 yards of total offense.  Their defense limited Rhode Island to just 219 total yards and forced three turnovers, outgaining them by 351 yards.

Ohio is a solid team under Frank Solich, but a 54-56 (OT) loss in their opener at home to Texas State as 17-point favorites is certainly concerning for the Bobcats.  They gave up 546 total yards in the loss, including 440 passing.  Kansas should have its way through the air against the Bobcats as well.

Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games vs. MAC opponents.  The Bobcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 6 points or fewer in its previous game.

The Jayhawks are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games vs. non-conference opponents.  With a small number of only 3, basically all they have to do is win this game to cover the spread.  It's time to hop on the Jayhawks' bandwagon now because in a few weeks bettors are going to realize this team is no longer a pushover.  Take Kansas Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6

The Penn State Nittany Lions are a team I'm very high on this season.  They are in Year 3 under James Franklin, and he clearly has his best team yet.  He came into 2016 with 14 starters back and only 18 lettermen lost.

But the Nittany Lions are undervalued in 2016 because they are coming off back-to-back disappointing 7-6 seasons.  But now Franklin has the QB he recruited in Trace McSorley, and not the one that was handed to him in Christian Hackenberg, who wasn't a fit for the offense he prefers to run.

McSorley is a dual-threat guy who flashed that talent in a 33-13 win over Penn State in the opener.  He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 47 yards.  The offense has nine starters back around him, so he doesn't have to do it all.  That includes one of the best RB's in the country in Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 1,076 yards and 7 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry last year.  Barkley rushed for 105 yards and a TD in the opener.

Penn State has had an elite defense every year under Franklin, giving up 18.6 points and 279 yards per game in 2014, and 21.8 points and 324 yards per game in 2015.  They held Kent State to 279 total yards and forced three turnovers in the opener.  Now the offense will finally catch up to the defense this season.

While I like Pitt and its direction, I don't believe it should be favored against a top-tier Big Ten opponent.  I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, so getting 6 points is an added bonus and a ton of value in a game that could easily go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

Pitt played in a ton of close games last season en route to going 8-5 in Pat Narduzzi's first season.  In fact, a whopping eight of those 13 games were decided by a TD or less.  These teams play similar styles as they like to run the ball and play good defense, which will lead to a close game.

Pitt wasn't impressive at all in its 28-7 win over FCS foe Villanova as 28-point favorites in the opener.  It only managed 261 yards of total offense while outgaining Villanova by only 89 yards.  The Panthers continue to be held back at the QB position as Nathan Peterman threw for only 175 yards.  James Connor returned from injury after missing most of last year and only rushed for 53 yards on 17 carries.  He may only be a shell of his former self this season.

Plays against a home team (PITTSBURGH) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1992.

Franklin is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are winning 38.9 to 13.4 on average, or by 25.5 points per game.  This guy is the real deal and will do big things at Penn State sooner rather than later.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+101)

After back-to-back losses, the St. Louis Cardinals are now actually the first team out in the NL wild card race.  They are vying with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets for the two spots.  They are just 1/2 game back of the Mets for the 2nd spot, so they'll be highly motivated tonight.

Carlos Martinez has been the unquestioned ace of St. Louis' staff.  He is 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 26 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three.  Martinez has owned the Brewers, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Jimmy Nelson is 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 28 starts for the Brewers, including 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Nelson has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-5 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Milwaukee is 1-16 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.  It is losing by 2.6 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

15* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Syracuse +15

The Syracuse Orange are a team on the rise under first-year head coach Dino Babers. He led Bowling Green to an 18-9 record in his two years there and the MAC title last year. We all saw how poor Bowling Green looked in a 10-77 loss to Ohio State in their first game without him.

Babers stepped into a great situation at Syracuse with 16 returning starters. This is a team that lost only 17 lettermen from a year ago and will be much more competitive in ACC play after a down 4-8 season last year.

Babers brings a great offensive mind and calls his own plays. This offense racked up 554 total yards in a 33-7 win over Colgate in the opener. Sophomore QB Eric Dungey was brilliant, completing 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Eight starters are back on offense this year.

The defense was equally impressive in allowing just 143 total yards and 11 first downs to Colgate. This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the country this season with eight starters and each of the top seven tacklers back from a year ago.

I think Louisville comes in overvalued here as more than a two-touchdown road favorite because of its emphatic 70-14 win over Charlotte last week. Well, Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the FBS as it recently just joined the FBS. The 49ers went 2-10 last year in their first season as members of the FBS and got outscored by 18.8 points per game.

I really think this is a tough spot for Louisville, too. It will be looking ahead to its showdown against Florida State next week, which will determine if the Cardinals have a shot in the stacked ACC Atlantic Division. I don’t believe the Cardinals will give the Orange their full attention as a result.

Syracuse is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off a win by 17 points or more. The Orange are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They went 3-3 SU at home last year with all three losses coming to ranked teams in LSU, Pitt & Clemson by 10 points or less.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-87 (63.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Orange should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals tonight.  Take Syracuse Friday.

20* Panthers/Broncos 2016 NFL Season Opener on Denver +3

Rarely will you ever find a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog at home in the regular season opener the next season. The last time it happened the Patriots won outright as 2.5-point home underdogs.

Defending Super Bowl champions are 14-2 SU & 10-4-2 ATS during Week 1 of the NFL regular season since 2000.  The Super Bowl runner-up is 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS in Week 1 the following season since 2000.

I believe the value is with the Broncos at home here. I know Peyton Manning is gone, but the Broncos won in spite of him last year. They still have an elite defense led by Von Miller and company and will ride that defense once again this season. Trevor Siemian won’t be that much of a downgrade from Manning.

While Denver continues to lack respect from oddsmakers, Carolina comes into 2016 overvalued due to its 15-1 season last year. But this team got several good breaks in close games last year and won’t be going 15-1 again.

The Broncos have had a huge home-field advantage over the last several years and went 8-2 at home last season. They held opponents to 18.2 points and 271.1 yards per game at home last year.

The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games dating back to last season. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The Broncos are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Panthers.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -149

The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to fend off several teams in the NL Wild Card race.  They are currently at 73-65, battling the 74-65 Giants and the 74-66 Mets for one of the two Wild Card spots.  It's safe to say they will be motivated tonight in Game 1 against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are coming off a rare series win against the Chicago Cubs at home, which puts them in prime letdown position here.  Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Jaime Garcia has been at his best at home this season, posting a 3.87 ERA and 1.151 WHIP over 15 starts.  Garcia owns the Brewers, going 11-6 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 21 career starts against them.  He has given up just 4 earned runs over 30 innings for a minuscule 1.20 ERA in his last four starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 16-42 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 2-9 in its last 11 during game 1 of a series.  The Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series.  St. Louis is 115-56 in its last 171 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 22-51 in the last 73 meetings.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -130

I'm back on the Kansas City Royals today as they continue to be a huge money-maker for me down the stretch.  This team simply doesn't have any quit.  With a 21-8 record in their last 29 games, the Royals are on the verge of making the playoffs.

I'll gladly fade the Minnesota Twins, who are just 5-22 in their last 27 games overall.  I'll also fade Kyle Gibson, who is 5-9 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 20 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.87 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three.  Gibson has given up 9 earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Royals for a 6.23 ERA as well.

Danny Duffy has been the clear ace of Kansas City's starting staff this season.  He is 11-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 21 starts, including 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in nine road starts.  Duffy has owned the Twins, going 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 career starts against them.

In fact, the Royals are 9-1 in Duffy's 10 career starts against Minnesota.  Duffy is 12-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Kansas City is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  The Royals are 7-0 in Duffys last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Kansas City.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +112

The Kansas City Royals are showing good value today as underdogs to the lowly Minnesota Twins.  The Royals are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall and are making a serious push to make the playoffs.  The Twins are just 5-21 in their last 26 games overall.

Dillon Gee has really stepped his game up of late, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those was against Minnesota on August 18 as he pitched 7 innings while allowing only one earned run in an 8-1 Kansas City victory.

Ervin Santana is having a decent year for the Twins at 7-10 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.254 WHIP over 25 starts.  However, he has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in his last three starts.  Santana is 5-9 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 19 career starts against Kansas City as well.

The Royals are 41-19 in their last 60 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 9-2 in its last 11 road games.  The Twins are 17-44 in their last 61 vs. AL Central foes.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 8-18 in Santana's last 26 starts.  The Twins are 0-6 in Santana's last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State -4.5

Despite bringing back just 11 starters last year, the Seminoles still managed to win at least 10 games for the fourth straight season.  Now they are loaded with 17 starters back in 2016 in what will be one of Jimbo Fisher's best teams yet.

Eleven starters return on offense in all.  Every player that started last year is expected to start again except for at quarterback, where freshman Deondre Francois has played his way into the starting role for the opener.  This kid is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the country, and I'm expecting a coming out party similar to that of Jameis Winston against Pittsburgh a few years back.

Francois won't have to do too much considering the talent is loaded around him.  He can give the ball to Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry last year.  Almost every receiver who caught a pass last year is back, led by Travis Rudolph, who caught 59 balls for 916 yards and seven touchdowns.  The Seminoles have one of the best offensive lines in the country as well.

Defensively, Florida State gave up just 17.5 points and 337 yards per game last year.  They do only have six returning starters on defense, but the replacements are some of the top recruits in the country.  Fisher has always had a stout defense as the Seminoles have allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five of his first season seasons.  That will be the case again.

But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.

Ole Miss had a magical 10-3 season last year with 16 returning starters and a plethora of NFL talent.  But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.  While it's not a full-blown rebuilding year, there's no question that the Rebels will take a couple steps back in 2016.

While this game will technically be played on a neutral field, there's no question the Seminoles will have more fans there as it's played in Orlando.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays against any Any team (OLE MISS) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Florida State Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -127

The Kansas City Royals have gone 19-8 in their last 27 games overall.  Each of their last four losses have come by exactly one run, so they have been very close to perfection.  They'll be looking to sweep the Twins on the road in this series and get back to the postseason.

Ian Kennedy is pitching great right now.  He is 9-9 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 27 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kennedy is 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA in five career starts against Minnesota.  He pitched 8 shutout innings in a 10-0 victory on August 20 in his last start against them.

Jose Berrios has been a huge disappointment for the Twins.  He is 2-4 with a 9.24 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in nine starts, allowing eight homers and 38 earned runs in 37 innings already.  Berrios faced the Royals on August 19, giving up 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 4-5 loss.

The Royals are 40-19 in their last 59 vs. American League Central.  Kansas City is 4-1 in Kennedy's last five starts.  The Twins are 0-4 in Berrios' last four starts.  Minnesota is 6-20 in its last 26 games overall.  Bet the Royals Monday.

15* Notre Dame/Texas ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5

I’m huge on Texas this year and believe it will compete for the Big 12 Championship. I love third-year head coaches like Charlie Strong, especially in situations like these. He didn’t have the players he wanted his first two seasons, but now he has mostly his players in place to execute his schemes in Year 3.

In fact, Strong welcomes back 15 starters and 52 lettermen this year, making this his most experienced team yet in Austin. The key will be improvement on offense, which won’t be a problem with new coordinator Sterling Gilbert, who guided Tulsa’s offense to over 500 yards of offense per game last year.

Tyrone Swoopes and stud freshman Shane Buechele are expected to share snaps this game. They will run Gilbert’s veer and shoot system, which is going to be completely different than what Notre Dame was up against last year. The change in scheme will cause some problems for Notre Dame’s defense as the Longhorns have the element of surprise working in their favor.

Strong should have his best defense yet at Texas with eight starters and seven of the top nine tacklers back from last year. The Longhorns are absolutely loaded with talent on this side of the ball, and several of the freshmen who played big minutes last year are now sophomores and will be improved greatly.

Many expect Notre Dame to compete for a national title this year, but I’m not seeing it. I see this as more of a rebuilding year for head coach Brian Kelly and company. That’s because the Fighting Irish return only four starters. They lose four of their top five receivers on offense, three starters along the offensive line, and six of their top eight tacklers on defense.

There’s no question that Texas has been working extra hard all offseason to try and avenge its ugly 3-38 loss at Notre Dame to open the 2015 season. The Longhorns will want this one badly, and now I would argue that they are actually the better team. They have 15 starters back compared to nine for Notre Dame, while last year they only had 11 starters back compared to 16 for the Fighting Irish.

This line has been bet down from 4.5 to 3 in a lot of places for good reason. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) – with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Take Texas Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -110

The Kansas City Royals are making a serious push to make the postseason.  They have gone 19-7 in their last 26 games overall and are finishing up a series against the Detroit Tigers Sunday, who they trail by three games and are one of the teams they are chasing down.

Edinson Volquez has been great at home since he joined the Royals.  He is 6-3 with a 4.48 ERA in 16 home starts this season.  The Royals are 22-9 in Volquez's last 31 home starts.

Daniel Norris is getting too much respect here from oddsmakers.  The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start and I expect the Royals to get into the Tigers' bullpen early in this one.

Kansas City is 49-24 in its last 73 home games.  The Royals are 40-18 in their last 58 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 9-1 in its last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in Norris' last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Volquez is 13-2 (+11.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -111

After three straight one-run losses, the Kansas City Royals are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night.  Look for them to get back in the win column with a much-needed victory as they chase down the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League.

The Royals worked too hard to get in position to make the playoffs to quit now.  They went 18-4 over a 22-game stretch before their three straight heartbreaking losses.  Yordano Ventura is here to save the day and get them back on track.

Ventura has gone 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last five starts, giving up just 8 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings.  He is 19-8 with a 2.98 ERA in 40 career starts after the All-Star Break.  Ventura is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts this year against the Tigers.  He has never lost to Detroit, going 6-0 with a 2.98 ERA in 10 appearances.

Michael Fulmer has really struggled in his last two starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 17 base runners over 10 2/3 innings while striking out just 5 batters.  The young rookie may be getting worn out this late in the season.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3

I believe the Georgia Bulldogs will hit the ground running in Kirby Smart’s first season on the job. Talent certainly was not the issue for this team under Mark Richt, who cashed in four 10-win seasons in his past five years. While I don’t agree with his firing, I do believe Smart will do just as good of a job, if not better, here.

Smart inherits a ton of talent and experience with 14 returning starters. The offense figures to be vastly improved with eight starters back and likely better play at the quarterback position. Greyson Lambert will get the nod after completing 63.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year. Look for the senior to step up his game this season.

The good news is that the Bulldogs will have an elite running game now that Nick Chubb is back and healthy. They started 4-1 last year with their only loss to Alabama, but then Chubb was out for the year with a knee injury suffered against Tennessee and the Bulldogs leading 24-3. They would go on to lose that game. Chubb still finished with 747 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in five-plus games.

The biggest thing Smart adds to this team is his expertise on defense. And he should come close to matching Georgia’s numbers last year on this side of the ball. It gave up just 16.9 points and 306 yards per game. Four of the top seven tacklers and six starters return.

I have a very good feeling that UNC was a one-hit wonder last year. It came out of nowhere to win 11 games and the Coastal Division. But now the hype is too strong heading into 2015, and the Tar Heels are sure to take a step back.

They do return 14 starters, but they lose their best player in QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 948 yards and 13 scores. The Tar Heels will turn to junior Mitch Trubisky, who has some massive shoes to fill.

Defensively, the Tar Heels only gave up 24.5 points per game last year after giving up 39.0 in 2014. However, they still gave up 436 yards per game and weren’t that good of a defense. They surrendered 17.8 yards per point last year after giving up 12.8 yards per point in 2014. That was more luck than anything.

North Carolina is 2-11 in its last 13 road openers and went 0-3 last year in games played on a neutral field, including a 13-17 loss to South Carolina in the opener. That was an awful Gamecocks team that finished 3-9 on the season. The Tar Heels really struggled against the big boys last year in Baylor and Clemson as well.

I also like the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Bulldogs as it's played in Atlanta and not even close to a neutral field.  Plus, Chubb and the Georgia rushing attack should have their way all game.  UNC surrendered 247 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry last year.  In its final three games, it gave up 308 rushing yards to Virginia Tech, 319 to Clemson and a ridiculous 645 to Baylor.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.  Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin +10

I was impressed with Paul Chryst in his first season in Madison. He took a team that returned just 11 starters and won 10 games. Two losses came by a combined 10 points, and the other was against eventual national champion Alabama in the season opener.

Now Chryst has 12 starters and 51 lettermen back in 2016, and these players are familiar with his systems. Senior RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy last year, otherwise the story may have been different in the Big Ten West. Clement is now healthy and ready to carry the load offensively as the Badgers get back to ground-and-pound after a sub-par season on the ground last year.

I really don’t think the Badgers are going to miss QB Joel Stave that much. After all, he threw just 11 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions last season. Fifth-year senior Bart Houston won the job in camp and should be able to surpass Stave’s mediocre numbers this season. But the key on offense is having four returning starters and 62 career starts along the offensive line.

Defensively, Wisconsin gave up just 13.7 points and 269 yards per game last season. Now they have six starters and four of their top six tacklers back from last year. They are very strong up front with five starters back among their front seven.

That’s key because the Badgers only gave up 95 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry last season. Since LSU lacks a passing game as Brandon Harris has disappointed and will start again, it’s going to be all Leonard Fournette offensively for the Tigers. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Badgers, who will rise to the occasion and hold Fournette in check.

This is essentially a home game for the Badgers as it will be held in their home state of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. We saw two years ago Wisconsin hold a 24-13 lead over LSU in Houston at the end of the 3rd quarter, only to get outscored 15-0 in the final period and lose 28-24. I look for this meeting to go right down to the wire as well, thus getting 10 points is a value, especially with the location of the game and the favorable matchup.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

20* UCLA/Texas A&M CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies failed to meet expectations last year because their offense was the worst of the Sumlin era. They only put up 27.8 points per game after averaging 41.3 points per game in his first three years on the job. But you can’t hold a Sumlin offense down for long.

The problem last year was at quarterback as both Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray struggled. Both transferred in the offseason, paving the way for former Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight to take over the job in 2016. He made 15 career starts with the Sooners and threw for 3,424 yards while also rushing for 853 yards and 5.6 per carry. He’ll be a big upgrade at the position.

Also helping out Knight is the fact that he has arguably the best set of receivers in the country. Each of the top five receivers are back from last year. Leading the way are Christian Kirk (80 receptions, 1,009 yards, 7 TD last year), Josh Reynolds (51, 907, 5 TD), Ricky Seals-Jones (45, 560, 4 TD) and Speedy Noil (21, 226, 2 TD). Noil will miss this game due to suspension, but that’s not a big loss.

The sad part about last season is that the Aggies wasted their best defense of the Sumlin era. John Chavis was one of the most underrated coordinator hires in the country last season, and he helped guide the Aggies into giving up just 22.0 points and 380 yards per game.

Now the Aggies return seven starters and seven of the top eight tacklers on D, making this one of the best stop units in the SEC. They have the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett (12.5 sacks last year) and Daeshon Hall (7 sacks), who will be key in this game in getting after Josh Rosen and UCLA’s passing attack.

While there’s no denying that Rosen is one of the best QB’s in the country, I am concerned about the lack of experience around him as the Bruins return just four starters on offense. They lose four of their top five receivers from last year and leading rusher Paul Perkins (1,343 yards, 14 TD), who did everything for this team.

Sumlin certainly knows how to get his teams ready for the season. The Aggies have gone 5-0 to start each of the last two seasons. They beat South Carolina 52-28 on the road in their opener as 10-point dogs in 2014, then stomped Pac-12 opponent Arizona State 38-17 on a neutral field to open 2015.

Now the Aggies get to play at home, where they are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 September games. I look for a hostile atmosphere in College Station to be key in guiding the Aggies to a win and cover Saturday afternoon.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* K-State/Stanford CFB Friday No-Brainer on Stanford -14

Stanford head coach David Shaw continues to do a tremendous job in recruiting. Despite returning just 12 starters last year, the Cardinal went 12-2 and beat Iowa by 29 points in the Rose Bowl. Now they return just 11 starters, but that’s not a big concern given the talent level on hand.

The biggest concern is replacing Kevin Hogan at quarterback. But senior Ryan Burns has been waiting his turn and is prepared to take over the job. He stands 6’5″ and 233 pounds and was a highly rated recruit as a high school player in Virginia, but he couldn’t find the field because of Hogan’s success.

The good news is that Burns will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey, who should have won the Heisman Trophy last year. McCaffrey broks Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season last year. He finished with 2,019 rushing yards and 645 receiving yards and was a beast on special teams as well.

The Stanford defense figures to be dominant once again with six starters back from a unit that gave up 22.6 points per game last year. The D only had three starters back last season, so improvement can be expected on this side of the ball. Look for the Cardinal to get back to the 16.4 points and 282 yards per game they allowed in 2014.

While the Cardinal are legit national title contenders, the K-State Wildcats finally look like they’re fading in the Big 12 under legendary coach Bill Snyder. They went just 6-7 last year and were blown out 55-0 by Oklahoma and 45-23 by Arkansas in the process. They were outgained by 118 yards per game overall and 153.6 yards per game in Big 12 play last year.

Now the Wildcats have just 12 returning starters and all kinds of questions on offense. Jesse Ertz was hurt last year, so he’ll be back, but he’s not going to have much success against this dominant Stanford defense. I expect this game to play out similar to the 45-23 Arkansas game and the 45-16 beat down Stanford put on Iowa, which was a much better team than Kansas State.

Stanford is 42-5 at home over the past seven seasons. It has won 15 straight non-conference home openers with its last lost coming to Notre Dame. The Cardinal have won eight straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game as well.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Stanford is 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games overall, including 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games.  Bet Stanford Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -128

The Kansas City Royals have lost two straight for the first time in a month.  Both losses came in extra innings, and after having yesterday off, I look for them to come back strong today at home against the Detroit Tigers and get back in the win column.

The Royals have a massive edge on the mound tonight.  Danny Duffy is 11-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including a perfect 6-0 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Duffy has posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 14 career starts against Detroit as well.

Anibal Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in the American League this season.  He's 5-12 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 22 starts.  Sanchez has really struggled on the road, going 2-6 with an 8.01 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 11 starts away from home this year.

Duffy is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, including 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Kansas City is 41-23 at home this season, including 15-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -8.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Injuries absolutely killed this team last year as they were better than their 4-9 record would indicate. They have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games by a touchdown or less over the last two seasons alone.

Now fourth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is going to have his best team yet. The Buffaloes return 18 starters and 63 lettermen, making them the most experienced team in the Pac-12. Look for this team to be undervalued early in the season, and I believe they aren’t getting enough respect as only 8.5-point favorites here.

Starting QB Sefo Liufau is now a senior and has already thrown for 7,397 yards in his career. He’ll be the school’s all-time leading passer by within a couple games this season. He is among nine returning starters on offense from a unit that put up a respectable 397 yards per game last year.

The defense improved dramatically last season in allowing just 27.5 points per game after giving up 39.0 in 2014. Now the Buffaloes should take another step forward with nine starters and each of the top four tacklers returning.

While Colorado is on the rise, Colorado State is surely on the decline this season. Mike Bobo stepped into a great situation last year with 15 returning starters left over from Jim McElwain, who left for Florida. All he could get out of that team was a 7-6 record after they went 10-3 the year before.

Now it looks like a rebuilding year as the Rams return just 10 starters. The offense returns QB Nick Stevens, but he loses each of his top four receivers from last year, including stud Rashard Higgins, who caught 75 balls for 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns.

While the offense should still be decent, the bigger concern is on defense where the Rams return only four starters. They had eight starters back on D last year and gave up 27.2 points per game, and now they’ll easily give up 30-plus in 2016. That explosive Colorado offense should have its way with this inexperience Rams’ defense in Week 1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Colorado Friday.

20* Oregon State/Minnesota Pac-12 vs. Big Ten BAILOUT on Oregon State +13

The Oregon State Beavers come into the 2016 season undervalued because of their 2-10 campaign last year. That’s pretty evident by the fact that they are 13-point underdogs to a Minnesota team that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten last year with a 5-7 record during the regular season.

While I do like this Minnesota team, I do not agree that it should be 13-point favorites here Thursday night. The Golden Gophers return 13 starters and 39 lettermen, but they lose four of their top six tacklers on defense.

Most of their returning starters are on offense with seven in all, but this is a unit that put up just 22.5 points per game last season. With the lack of an explosive offense, it’s easy to predict that the Golden Gophers are going to have a hard time covering this 13-point spread in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Gary Andersen did a tremendous job at Utah State and Wisconsin before coming here. He won 30 games over a 3-year span before coming to Oregon State. Then he stepped into an awful situation as the Beavers had just nine returning starters last year, including two on defense.

But now Andersen has more of his players in place and 13 starters and 47 lettermen returning while losing only 17 letter winners. The Beavers go from an inexperienced team to one that now has eight projected senior starters. I look for them to surprise some folks this season and to be much more competitive than last year.

Andersen brought Utah State transfer Darell Garretson with him to Corvallis. He completed 67% of his passes for 1,140 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio in 2014 while making four starts with the Aggies. He then sat out last season and now Garretson will guide what should be one of the most improved offenses in the country. Garretson was very impressive in the spring and should build off of that.

Oregon State has won three of its last four road openers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins last season came by 9 points or less, so it isn’t used to blowing teams out. Andersen is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 22-10 ATS in his career in non-conference games.

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s leading rusher last year was Shannon Brooks (709 yards, 7 TD, 6.0/carry), and he’s doubtful Thursday with a foot injury.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +103

The Minnesota Twins will be motivated to avoid the history books on Thursday.  They are riding a 13-game losing streak, one shy of the franchise mark set in 1982.  Look for them to get back in the win column today in Game 1 of this series against the Chicago White Sox, who now realize they have nothing to play for after getting swept by the Tigers last season, putting them 8.5 games out of the 2nd wild card spot.

Ervin Santana is coming off his worst start since the end of May, but it came on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays, which is to be expected.  However, Santana had allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts dating back to June 14 prior to that outing against the Blue Jays.  Santana has also allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against the White Sox.

Santana is 21-10 (+13.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher in his career.  The White Sox are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Chicago is 9-27 in its last 36 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The White Sox are 2-9 in Quintana's last 11 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Chicago is 0-6 in Quintana's last six starts during Game 1 of a series.  Roll with the Twins Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are coming off a magical 2015 season in which they went 12-2 and won the Conference USA title.  It was their first 12-win season since 2002 when they won the FCS title.

It's safe to say that the Hilltoppers are now way overvalued heading into 2016.  I'll gladly fade them now as they go from 16 returning starters last year down to 12 this season.

The key loss for the Hilltoppers is C-USA Offensive Player of the Year Brandon Doughty, who threw for 5,055 yards and 48 touchdowns against nine interceptions last year.  Doughty shattered the career passing yards mark at WKU with 12,855 yards.  He's one of those guys who is irreplaceable, and the Hilltoppers won't be nearly as good without him.

Another big concern is that WKU goes from having nine returning starters on D last year to just four returning starters this year.  They had only four starters back on D in 2014 when they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game, but dropped to 25.9 and 405 last year with an experienced D.  They'll get back to giving up boat loads up points in 2016.

Rice is certainly a team primed for a bounce-back year after going 5-7 last season.  They had gone a combined 18-9 the previous two seasons, but they had just nine starters back last year and it was a rebuilding season.

David Bailiff is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and now he'll be working with one of his better teams at Rice.  The Owls return 16 starters and 52 lettermen while losing only 17 letter winners.  This is a team that I fully expect to challenge for the C-USA title in 2016.

The biggest improvement for Rice will come on defense as they had just three returning starters last year and gave up 35.8 points and 447 yards per game.  But now they return nine starters on D and each of their top seven tacklers. In fact, this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country.

The offense figures to be improved as well with four veteran running backs, six of the top seven receivers returning, and an improved offensive line.  The key will be getting better QB play, which shouldn't be a problem after inconsistency last year.  Senior Tyler Stehling has been waiting for his time and this will be his year after throwing for 479 yards in 10 games as a back-up previously.

Most will look at WKU's 49-10 win over Rice last season and think the Hilltoppers will run away with it.  But a closer look shows that the Owls gave away that game by losing the turnover battle 5-0.  I expect this opener to be much more competitive and for the Owls to stay within two touchdowns.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -125

The Kansas City Royals are now 18-5 in their last 23 games overall and making a strong push to make the playoffs and defend their World Series title.  They haven't lost two straight games since the beginning of August, and after a 5-4 loss in extras last night, I look for them to bounce back at home.

Ian Kennedy is having a very good season for the Royals, going 9-9 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 26 starts, including 4-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Kennedy has really been dominant of late, going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts.

Luis Cessa is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.  He has only made two starts this season and won them both, but with such a small sample size, I don't think he is as good as he's getting credit for.  I'll gladly fade him here tonight.

The Royals are one of the best home teams in baseball at 41-22 on the season.  Kansas City is 23-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Kennedy is 17-4 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in his career.  The Royals are 4-0 in Kennedy's last four starts.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -150

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently in the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are trying to fend off numerous pursuers, and they are doing a great job of it, especially on the road.  They will take on a Milwaukee Brewers team that has lost five straight coming in tonight.

Adam Wainwright admittedly isn't having his best season at 9-8 with a 4.67 ERA in 26 starts.  However, he's up against a team he has owned in the past.  Indeed, Wainwright is 13-8 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 26 career starts against Milwaukee.  He has pitched 11 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.

Wily Peralta has been even worse than Wainwright this season.  He is 5-9 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.730 WHIP in 17 starts, including 4-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.703 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Peralta doesn't enjoy facing the Cardinals, going 4-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.

St. Louis is 39-24 in all road games this season.  Wainwright is 28-9 (+19.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 in his career.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight road games.  St. Louis is 35-16 in Wainwright's last 51 starts vs. NL Central opponents.

The Brewers are 21-49 in their last 70 vs. NL Central foes.  Milwaukee is 3-8 in Peralta's last 11 starts.  The Cardinals are 8-2 in Wainwright's last 10 starts vs. Brewers, including 4-0 in his last four road starts against them.  St. Louis is 50-21 in the last 71 meetings.  The Brewers are 0-6 in Peralta's last six starts vs. St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -143

After losing back-to-back home games to the Oakland A's over the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series.  They'll be taking on a Milwaukee Brewers team that has nothing to play for and has lost four straight coming in.

The Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound tonight, which justifies laying this juice.  Carlos Martinez is 12-7 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Martinez has owned the Brewers, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Zach Davies is having a decent season for the Brewers at 10-6 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 23 starts.  However, he has shown signs of wearing down here as we near the end of the year, going 1-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in his last three starts.

St. Louis is 38-24 in all road games this season.  The Cardinals are 10-2 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  St. Louis is 6-1 in its last seven road games.  The Cardinals are 20-8 in Martinez's last 28 road starts.  The Brewers are 21-48 in their last 69 vs. NL Central opponents.  St. Louis is 49-21 in the last 70 meetings.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez's last four road starts vs. Brewers.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

20* Bengals/Jaguars NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville -1

No Analysis for Preseason

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -120

I've backed the Pittsburgh Pirates with success each of the past two days and I'll back them again at a generous price Sunday as they go for the 4-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers.  They are gaining momentum right now as they trailed the St. Louis Cardinals by just 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.

Ivan Nova has proven to be an excellent addition to the Pirates' rotation here down the stretch.  He has gone 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts, including a complete game his last time out where he allowed only one earned run in a 7-1 victory over the Astros.

Chase Anderson should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  He is 7-10 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 24 starts this season while averaging only 4.9 innings per start.  Anderson is also 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in five career starts against Pittsburgh.

Nova is 17-4 (+12.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career.  Nova is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game in his career.  The Pirates are 7-0 in their last seven road games and 4-0 in Nova's last four starts.  The Brewers are 21-47 in their last 68 vs. NL Central foes.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -145

I'm going back to the Pittsburgh Pirates again Saturday after they cashed for me last night in a 5-3 win over the Brewers.  The Pirates are making one last push to make the playoffs, and they cannot afford any letdowns at this point going forward.

The Pirates are worth the price of admission behind rookie Jameson Taillon, who is 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts.  Taillon has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two starts against the Brewers this season.

Jimmy Nelson is 7-13 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  While he has had his moments this year, Nelson appears to be wearing down as we near the end of the season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Pittsburgh is 7-2 in Taillon's last nine starts.  The Pirates are 4-0 in Taillon's last four starts with 4 days of rest.  The Brewers are 25-53 in their last 78 vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 1-6 in Nelson's last seven starts.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +3.5

No Analysis for Preseason

15* Chiefs/Bears NFLX Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -1

No Analysis for Preseason

20* Cal/Hawaii 2016 CFB Season Opener on Hawai'i +20

Last season set up perfectly for the Cal Golden Bears to have their best year of the Sonny Dykes era. They had a whopping 17 returning starters, including eventual No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at quarterback. They made the most of it and went 8-5 overall.

But now Dykes will be rebuilding in his 4th year here. The Golden Bears lose a whopping 29 players who contributed in 2015, including Goff and his top six receivers. They went from being the #3 most experienced team in the country last year to #119 this year. They return just nine starters in all.

While the losses on offense are huge, the lack of proven playmakers on defense are just as big. The Golden Bears have lost each of their top six tacklers from last year after SS Damariay Drew tore his ACL in the spring and is out for the year. They are going to have a hard time stopping anyone this season.

It’s certainly hard to be too high on Hawai’i coming into 2016 after going a combined 11-39 over the past four seasons. However, I like the new head coach in Nick Rolovich, who had some great offenses at Nevada after spending the past four years as their coordinator. The new defensive coordinator is Kevin Lampa, who has a whopping 42 years of coaching experience.

The cupboard certainly isn’t bare for the Warriors, who return 15 starters and 46 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners. The offense figures to be much better under Rolovich’s tutelage with the experience that returns.

Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has been named the starter. He has made 19 starts in his career here and should be primed for his best season yet. Leading rusher Paul Harris (1,132 yards, 6 TD, 5.7/carry last year) is back, as are each of the top three receivers from a year ago. Four starters return along the offensive line as well. I look for this unit to have plenty of success against an inexperienced Cal defense.

Hawai’i has been a great bet in Week 1 each of the past five seasons, going a perfect 5-0 ATS during that stretch against five straight Pac-12 opponents. It beat Colorado 34-17 as 6-point home favorites in 2011, covered as 42-point dogs at USC in a 10-49 loss in ’12, covered as 23-point home dogs to USC in a 13-30 loss in ’13, nearly upset Washington as 17-point home dogs in a 16-17 loss in ’14, and upset Colorado 28-20 as 7-point home dogs in ’15.

The Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Pac-12 foes.  Bet Hawai'i Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -112

The Pittsburgh Pirates (64-61) are making one last push to make the playoffs.  They came up with a huge 3-2 win in 10 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers (56-71) last night, and now I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 2 tonight.

I believe the Pirates should be much bigger favorites today due to the edge they have on the mound.  Ryan Vogelsong has been awesome for them, going 1-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has gone 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee as well.

Matt Garza remains one of the worst starters in baseball, going 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 13 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three.  He has gone 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 11 career starts against Pittsburgh, including 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his last three against them.

The Pirates are 45-22 in their last 67 Friday games.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in its last five road games.  Milwaukee is 25-52 in its last 77 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 3-10 in Garza's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Pirates Friday.

15* NFLX Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Redskins -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason

20* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +107

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep against their rivals in the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  They have dropped the first two games of this series and now trail the Dodgers by three games in the NL West.

The Giants clearly have the edge on the mound tonight behind Matt Moore, who is 7-10 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.301 WHIP over 25 starts between San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  Moore pitched 6 2/3 innings without allowing a single earned run against the Dodgers on July 27 of this year.

Ross Stripling is no more than a fill-in starter for the Dodgers this year.  He is 2-4 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 11 starts.  Stripling has been at his worst at home, going 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in six home starts this season.

The Dodgers are hitting just .241 and scoring 4.0 runs/game against left-handed starters this year.  The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Giants Thursday.

15* Falcons/Dolphins NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Atlanta +2

No Analysis for Preseason

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants +128

Now trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by two games after losing Game 1 of this series, the San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated to come back for a victory in Game 2 tonight.  I look for them to do so with their advantage on the mound in this one.

Johnny Cueto is 14-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 8-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Cueto has posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 11 career starts against Los Angeles.  He has given up just 3 earned runs and 8 base runners over 15 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers this season.

Rich Hill certainly revived his career in Boston and Oakland over the past two seasons.  However, he will be making his season debut for the Dodgers tonight while coming off the disabled list following a blister on his pitching hand.  I fully expect the Dodgers to limit his pitch count in this one.

San Francisco is 16-5 in Cueto's last 21 starts.  The Giants are 11-1 in Cueto's last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.  San Francisco is 21-8 in its last 29 vs. NL West opponents.  Bet the Giants Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +107

I love the Kansas City Royals' never-say-die attitude.  They could have easily packed it in, but instead they have won 13 of their last 15 games overall to put themselves right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race.  I expect them to pick up their 9th straight win Tuesday in Game 1 against the Miami Marlins.

The Royals have the clear edge on the mound tonight behind Yordano Ventura, who is 8-9 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 24 starts.  However, Ventura has really stepped up his game down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts.

Andrew Cashner has gone in the other direction.  He is 4-9 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in his last three starts.  Cashner is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 2.250 WHIP in his lone career start against Kansas City.

Ventura is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 15-2 (+13.6 Units) against the money line after six consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  The Royals are 36-17 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Marlins are 0-7 in their last seven when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-128)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem beating the lowly San Diego Padres by two runs or more today.  They have a massive edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series and should provide Jon Lester with plenty of run support.

Lester has gone 13-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last three.  Lester is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego, though this will be his first-ever start at Petco Park.

Edwin Jackson has gone 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in six starts this season for the Padres.  Injuries and trades have depleted the Padres' rotation, which is the only reason Jackson is even in the majors.  Jackson is 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in eight career starts against Chicago.

Lester is 43-8 (+23.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning these games by 3.1 runs per game.  Lester is 20-3 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are winning these games by 2.5 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -151

The Kansas City Royals have won 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are making a serious run at the playoffs and will cap off the series sweep against the Minnesota Twins today.  That' why we'll lay the heavy juice in this one.

I also like backing ace Danny Duffy, who has been far and away their best starter this year.  Duffy is 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 18 starts with 122 K's in 114 innings.  He is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Duffy is 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in nine career starts against the Twins, and the Royals are 8-1 in those games.  Ervin Santana is 5-8 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 18 career starts against Kansas City.  Santana gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Royals on May 24.

Duffy is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Royals are 15-3 in Duffy's 18 starts this season.  Kansas City is 14-1 (+12.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -130

The Kansas City Royals have won 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They are playing like the defending world champs they are right now, and we'll continue to back them tonight.

The Royals host the lowly Minnesota Twins (49-73), who have the worst record in the American League.  The Twins go with Hector Santiago, who has posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 25 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Royals go with Ian Kennedy, who is 7-9 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 24 starts, including 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in nine home starts.  Kennedy is 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The Royals are 6-0 in their last six games overall.  Kansas City is 45-21 in its last 66 home games.  This team dominates at home and this is a generous price as a result.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

15* Panthers/Titans NFLX No-Brainer on Tennessee PK

No Analysis for Preseason

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -121

The Kansas City Royals have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  They are making one final push at the postseason after making the World Series each of the last two years.  I look for them to continue their recent surge against the Minnesota Twins tonight.

Edinson Volquez has been much better at home this season, going 6-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 14 starts. Volquez has owned the Twins as well, going 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Jose Berrios has struggled in his rookie season for the Twins.  He has gone 2-3 with a 9.32 ERA and 1.857 WHIP over seven starts this year.  Berrios gave up six runs, five earned, and nine base runners in two innings of a 7-15 loss to the Houston Astros in his last turn on August 11.

Kansas City is 13-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The Twins are 24-49 in their last 73 games following a loss.  The Royals are 44-21 in their last 65 home games.  Kansas City is 21-8 in Volquez's last 29 home starts.  The Royals are 6-0 in Volquez's last six starts vs. Minnesota.  Kansas CIty is 49-22 in the last 71 meetings.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* Dolphins/Cowboys NFLX No-Brainer on Miami +3

No Analysis for Preseason

15* Vikings/Seahawks NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3

No Analysis for Preseason

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -102

The Kansas City Royals still believe they can make the postseason.  They have gotten back to .500 after winning four straight, seven of eight and nine of their last 11 games overall.  Now we are getting them at basically even money at home against the Minnesota Twins today.

I'm certainly not going to say the Royals have the edge on the mound, but it's pretty close.  Dillon Gee is going to want some revenge after giving up 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against Minnesota on August 13.

Tyler Duffey is getting way too much respect.  He is 8-8 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Duffey has posted a 4.61 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals, both of which have come this season.

Kansas City is 7-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Royals are 43-21 in their last 64 home games.  Kansas City is 49-21 in its last 70 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Twins are 22-48 in the last 70 meetings.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals +100

The Kansas City Royals continue to fight as they have a chance to get back to .500 with a win tonight while sweeping the Detroit Tigers.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall coming in and are showing great value as underdogs today.

Yordano Ventura has turned it on here down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ventura has never lost to the Tigers, going 5-0 with a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts against them.

Anibal Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 4-11 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in 19 starts.  Sanchez is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals, allowing 14 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.

Ventura is 14-3 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 2-14 in Sanchez's last 16 starts on grass.  Detroit is 1-5 in Sanchez's last six home starts.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -113

The Seattle Mariners have won 11 of their last 13 games overall to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels have lost 11 straight and simply cannot put the wheels back on.  I'll gladly back the Mariners at this price today as they continue playing their best baseball of the season.

Ariel Miranda has recently been promoted to the rotation.  He held his own in his first start, giving up just two earned runs over 6 innings in a 2-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox, which have been the best offensive team in baseball this season.  So that was no small feat.

The key here is that I'll gladly fade Jhoulys Chacin of the Angels.  He is 3-8 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-3 with a monstrous 13.50 ERA and 3.093 WHIP in his last three starts.  He have given up 16 earned runs and 33 base runners over 10 2/3 innings in his last three outings.

The Angels are 0-11 in their last 11 games, while the Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 games.  Los Angeles is 0-4 in Chacin's last four starts.  The Angels are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.  Seattle is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -127

I've have been riding the red-hot Mariners with a ton of success lately and will continue to do so tonight.  They have won 10 of their last 12 games overall to close in on one of the final wild card spots in the American League.

Now the Mariners will give the ball to ace Felix Hernandez, who is 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He has looked very strong of late since returning from injury, going 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hernandez has posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 49 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles Angels have lost a season-high 10 straight games coming in and have nothing to play for.  It won't get any better tonight with Ricky Nolasco taking the mound.  Nolasco is 4-9 with a 5.14 ERA in 23 starts, including 0-4 with a 5.30 ERA in 11 home starts.

Nolasco is 3-15 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Mariners are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Angels are 0-8 in their last eight after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

15* Texans/49ers NFLX No-Brainer on Houston +3.5

No Analysis for Preseason

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -108

I'm going to continue riding one of the hottest teams in baseball at a great price Sunday.  The Seattle Mariners have won nine of their last 11 games overall and are making a serious push at the playoffs right now.  Don't expect much resistance from the A's today.

Wade LeBlanc has held his own in the Mariners' rotation this season.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in six starts.  LeBlanc is 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.

Zach Neal will be making just his second start for the A's.  He's 1-1 with a 7.72 ERA this season.  One of those two starts came against the Mariners on May 5.  Neal allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings of a 3-13 loss at Seattle in that contest.

Oakland is 3-15 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.  The Mariners are 5-1 in LeBlanc's six starts this season.  The A's are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. a left-handed starter.  Oakland is 1-7 in its last eight Sunday games.  Seattle is 8-1 in its last nine meetings in Oakland.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners -129

The Seattle Mariners had won six straight and eight of their previous nine games before losing 6-3 to the Oakland A's in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  Look for the Mariners to get right back in the win column today due to their edge on the mound.

Hisashi Iwakuma was 0-3 in April but has gone 13-4 since.  He's 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA against the A's this season.  He beat Boston and Detroit in his last two starts while pitching a combined 14 1/3 shutout innings with 15 strikeouts and one walk.

Kendall Graveman is having a decent season, but he's easily the worse starter in this matchup.  He's 8-7 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in his last three starts.

Iwakuma is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Saturday in his career having never lost.  The Mariners are 7-1 in Iwakuma's last eight starts overall.  Seattle is 6-0 in its last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

15* Cowboys/Rams ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

No Analysis for Preseason

15* AL Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -116

The New York Yankees are in a huge letdown spot here.  They just took the final two games of their series with the rival Boston Red Sox in comeback fashion.  They played yesterday, while the Tampa Bay Rays had the day off, giving them an edge in rest.

The Rays also have the edge on the mound tonight behind Chris Archer, who has been dominant of late.  He has posted a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in his last three starts.  Archer owns the Yankees, going 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in 11 career starts against them.

C.C. Sabathia has struggled over the past two months.  He is 1-5 with a 6.66 ERA in his last nine starts, giving up a combined 39 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings.  Sabathia is 1-6 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  He has given up at least 3 earned runs in 10 of his last 12 starts against the Rays as well.

The Yankees are 0-5 in Sabathia's last five starts vs. AL East opponents.  New York is 0-4 in Sabathia's last four home starts.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the Rays Friday.

20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +3

No Analysis for Preseason

15* Broncos/Bears NFLX No-Brainer on Chicago PK

No Analysis for Preseason

15* NFLX Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2

No Analysis for Preseason

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -125

After losing three of their last four, the Boston Red Sox come into this game with the New York Yankees highly motivated for a victory.  I like their chances with Eduardo Rodriquez on the mound tonight.

Rodriquez has been much better of late.  He has given up three runs or fewer in five straight starts, and 10 earned runs over 28 1/3 innings over that span for a 3.18 ERA.  But what really stands out is that Rodriquez is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five career starts against New York.

Michael Pineda has struggled all season, going 6-10 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 22 starts this year.  He has given up 9 earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts.  Pineda is 4-5 with a 4.92 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston as well.

Boston is 77-39 (+34.9 Units) against the money line after three straight games with no home runs since 1997.  The Yankees are 0-5 in their last five games following a win.  New York is 2-9 in Pineda's last 11 starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -117

The New York Mets are in need of wins in bunches if they want to get back to the postseason.  They'll be motivated for that tonight, plus for Bartolo Colon to get a win to become only the second active pitcher to beat all 30 major league clubs as he has never beaten the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Colon has been steady all season, going 10-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in 22 starts.  He has gone 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last three starts with no signs of wearing down.  This will only be his 3rd career start against the Diamondbacks.

Robbie Ray has not been nearly as effective as Colon this year.  He has gone 5-11 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 22 starts.  Ray has shown signs of wearing down of late, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in his last three starts coming in.

Ray is 0-10 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 3-14 in Ray's last 17 road starts.  New York is 5-1 in Colon's last six home starts.  Bet the Mets Wednesday.

20* AL Bounce-Back GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -128

The Houston Astros need to bust out of this slump they're in if they want to make it back to the postseason.  They have lost nine of their last 11 overall, which has them highly motivated for a victory here tonight against the Minnesota Twins.

Mike Fiers has been solid for the last few months.  He has posted a 3.56 ERA in 11 starts since June 1.  Fiers has owned the Twins over his career, going 2-1 (4-1 money line) with a 2.79 ERA in five starts against them.

Hector Santiago was traded to the Twins prior to the deadline.  He has gone 10-5 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 11 home starts.  He gave up 4 runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 2-9 loss to the Indians in his first start with the Twins on August 4.

The Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 4-1 in Fiers' last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Astros are 5-1 in Fiers' last six starts vs. AL Central opponents.  The Twins are 9-24 in their last 33 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -123

The Houston Astros need to kick it into gear if they want to be going back to the playoffs this season.  They have lost five of their last six to drop to 57-54 on the year.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a win heading into Game 1 of this series with the lowly Minnesota Twins (45-66) tonight.

I'll gladly fade Tyler Duffey, who is 6-8 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Duffey is 2-4 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in nine road starts, and 1-2 with a 14.91 ERA and 2.795 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Collin McHugh certainly hasn't had his best stuff this season.  However, he is now up against a team he has owned in the past.  Indeed, McHugh is 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in four career starts against Minnesota.  The Astros are 4-0 in those four starts having never lost with him on the mound.

McHugh is 14-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last two seasons.  The Astros are 7-0 in McHugh's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Astros Monday.

20* Red Sox/Dodgers Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston -108

The Boston Red Sox should be bigger favorites tonight due to the edge they have on the mound with David Price over Brandon McCarthy.  Price has been much better of late with a 3.15 ERA over his last five starts.  He's also 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Los Angeles.

Brandon McCarthy is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last two starts for the Dodgers.  McCarthy is also 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in seven career starts against Boston.  Look for him to get lit up here tonight.

The Red Sox are 39-14 in their last 53 vs. National League West.  The Red Sox are 111-48 in their last 159 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 0-4 in McCarthy's last 4 starts.  Los Angeles is 0-4 in its last 4 games following a win.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +110

The Boston Red Sox should not be underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers today.  They won 9-0 last night and saved their bullpen considering Steven Wright threw a complete game shutout.  They have the edge on the mound again today.

Eduardo Rodriquez has had his best stuff in recent starts.  He has a 2.63 ERA and has allowed only two hits in 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position over his last four starts.  Rodriquez will be facing the Dodgers for the first time today.

Ross Stripling is no more than a fill-in starter for the Dodgers.  He's 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in four home starts.  Stripling will struggle against one of the best lineups in baseball today.

Boston is 9-1 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Red Sox are 12-3 in their last 15 interleague games.  Boston is 5-1 in Rodriquez's last six road starts.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago Cubs are rolling right now.  They have won seven of their last eight games overall and now enter a series with the lowly Oakland A's, who have lost five of their last six coming in.

The Cubs have a huge edge on the mound tonight behind Jon Lester, who is 11-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Lester is 5-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 14 career starts against Oakland, including 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last two, giving up just 2 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.

The A's pitching staff is an absolute mess.  Dillon Overton has been horrible in limited action, going 1-2 with a 9.33 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has given up 19 earned runs and 9 homers over 18 1/3 innings this year.

Lester is 42-8 (+22.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers +124

After losing the first two games of this series. the Texas Rangers are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight to avoid the sweep.  I believe they salvage the series with a win due to their edge on the mound in this one.

A.J. Griffin has had a great year for Texas, going 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in 13 starts.  He is coming off two straight solid starts in which he gave up only three earned runs over 10 2/3 innings against the Royals both times.

Wade Miley is 7-8 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 19 starts with Seattle before getting traded to Baltimore and making his Orioles' debut tonight.  He can't figure out the Rangers, going 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA in six career starts against them.  In three starts against Texas in 2016, Miley is 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA, allowing 14 earned runs in 17 innings.

Griffin is 15-4 (+12.6 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents in his career.  Griffin is 7-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.  Griffin is 16-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in his career.  Bet the Rangers Thursday.

25* MLB Bounce-Back GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -137

The St. Louis Cardinals have lost three straight and are highly motivated for a victory tonight to end the skid.  That's especially the case after blowing a 9th inning lead last night to the Reds and losing in walk off fashion.

The Cards have a huge edge on the mound tonight behind Michael Wacha, who is 6-7 with a 4.38 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 4.07 ERA in 10 road starts.  But what really stands out is that Wacha is 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cincinnati.

Cody Reed is still in search of his first victory for the Reds.  Reed is 0-5 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.794 WHIP in seven starts this season.  The Reds are 0-7 in those starts, and they won't be giving him his first victory tonight against Wacha, either.

St. Louis is 15-2 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after two straight losses by 2 runs or less over the last three seasons.  Wacha is 8-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season.  The Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Bet the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-127)

The San Francisco Giants got off to an awful start after the All-Star Break.  But they are finally getting healthy with the recent returns of key players, plus the addition of Eduardo Nunez.  They have won two straight and I look for them to beat the Phillies by multiple runs tonight.

Ace Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for the Giants.  The left-hander has gone 10-6 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 22 starts this season with 170 K's in 150 2/3 innings.  Bumgarner is 4-3 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in nine career starts against Philadelphia.

At 48-59 on the season, the Phillies have played themselves out of postseason contention.  They are hitting .219 and scoring 2.9 runs per game at home this year.  Zach Eflin is 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA in nine starts this season.  He gave up 7 runs and 13 base runners over 5 innings in his last start against Miami on July 27.

Bumgarner is 22-4 (+16.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Giants are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bumgarner is 20-3 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.  San Francisco is winning these games by 3.3 runs per game.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Brainer on Milwaukee Brewers -108

The Milwaukee Brewers have won four straight and six of their last seven for one of their best stretches of the season. I look for them to continue their momentum against the lowly San Diego Padres, who have been big-time sellers prior to the trade deadline.

The Brewers have the clear edge on the mound behind Jimmy Nelson, who is 6-9 with a 3.64 ERA in 21 starts this season.  Nelson has owned the Padres, going 1-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in three career starts against them. He has given up just 4 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in those four starts.

The Padres will be one of the worst teams in baseball going forward with all that they have lost.  Jarred Cosart has recently entered the rotation, and he's been terrible, going 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.779 WHIP in four starts this season.

The Brewers are 8-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line off two straight home wins against division rivals over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 12-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games after three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  Bet the Brewers Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -140

The Houston Astros are highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games overall, including the first two games of this series to the Detroit Tigers.  They desperately want to avoid the sweep and get back on track, and they should with their edge on the mound today.

Dallas Keuchel hasn't had his best season, but he is starting to show his former Cy Young form of late.  The left-hander is 0-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three starts.  Keuchel has never lost to the Tigers, going 3-0 (4-0 money line) with a 2.22 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst starters in the majors.  The right-hander is 3-9 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.802 WHIP in 20 starts, 2-3 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.925 WHIP in nine home starts, and 1-1 with an 8.25 ERA and 2.083 WHIP in his last three starts.  Pelfrey is also 3-5 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in nine career starts against Houston.

Houston is 5-1 in its last six games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Astros are 17-4 in Keuchel's last 21 starts with 5 days of rest.  Houston is 4-0 in Keuchel's last four starts vs. Detroit.  Bet the Astros Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -139

The Pittsburgh Pirates are chasing down a playoff spot and really need to kick it into high gear here soon if they want to be going to the postseason again.  After losing to the Brewers in Game 1 Friday, I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.

The Pirates clearly have the edge on the mound behind rookie phenom Jameson Taillon, who is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three road starts.  One of those starts came against Milwaukee on July 19 as Taillon allowed just one earned run in six innings of a 3-2 victory.

Chase Anderson has had a forgetful season for the Brewers, going 5-10 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 19 starts.  He hasn't fared well against the Pirates, going 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.963 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Milwaukee is 5-20 (-13.2 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 4-0 in Taillon's last four starts.  The Brewers are 1-6 in Anderson's last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 0-5 in Anderson's last five Saturday starts.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -128

The Toronto Blue Jays trail the Baltimore Orioles by 1.5 games for the AL East lead.  By the end of this series, they could overtake the Orioles.  It starts with getting Game 1 tonight at home as I look for the Blue Jays to stay red hot.

I certainly give Toronto the edge on the mound behind Marco Estrada, who is 5-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 17 starts, including 2-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.936 WHIP in nine home starts.  Estrada is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in six career starts against Baltimore as well.

Kevin Gausman has been a pretty hard-luck starter for the Orioles as he's 2-7 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 17 starts.  While he has been solid at home, Guasman is 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 10 road starts.

The Orioles are 5-17 in Gausman's last 22 road starts.  Baltimore is 0-6 in Gausman's last six road starts.  The Orioles are 0-5 in their last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 14-6 in their last 20 games overall.  Toronto is 50-23 in its last 73 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Estrada's last five starts vs. Baltimore.  The Orioles are 22-53 in their last 75 meetings in Toronto.  Bet the Blue Jays Friday.

20* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants -140

The San Francisco Giants are going through their worst stretch of the season.  They are 2-9 since the All-Star Break and are now highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series against the Washington Nationals to bust out of the slump.

The Giants clearly have the edge on the mound tonight behind Johnny Cueto, who is 13-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Cueto is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against Washington, pitching 16 shutout innings while striking out 20 and allowing only 10 base runners.

Tanner Roark is having a fine season overall at 9-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 20 starts.  However, Roark has allowed 9 earned runs in 12 innings in two of his last three starts.  He's not used to this kind of workload and may be wearing down here late in the year.

Cueto is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  The Giants are 17-3 in Cueto's 20 starts this season, including 11-1 in his 12 night starts.  The Nationals are 0-5 in their last five meetings in San Francisco.  Bet the Giants Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Houston Astros -132

The Houston Astros aren't about to get swept at home by the New York Yankees tonight.  They have lost the first two games of this series and will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3.

I expect them to get it behind Lance McCullers, who has shined at home in his career.  The right-hander is 8-3 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.148 WHIP over 18 home starts with 129 K's in 112 1/3 innings.  McCullers is 4-2 with a 2.37 ERA in eight home starts this season alone.

Masahiro Tanaka is having a fine season for the Yankees as well at 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 20 starts.  However, he has never beaten the Astros, going 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three career starts against them.  In his only start in Houston he gave up 6 earned runs on 3 homers in 5 innings.  He has allowed 6 homers in 15 2/3 innings against the Astros.

The Astros are a perfect 12-0 in their last 12 Wednesday games.  Houston is 37-18 in its last 55 games overall, including 21-8 in its last 29 home games.  Bet the Astros Wednesday.

25* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Astros -139

After losing Game 1 of this series to end a 4-game winning streak, I look for the Houston Astros to bounce back in Game 2 against the New York Yankees tonight.  They have a massive edge on the mound in this one that will be key to victory.

Doug Fister is having a tremendous season.  He is 10-6 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 19 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last three outings.  Fister is also 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA in seven career starts against New York.

C.C. Sabathia started the season strong, but he's come back down to reality of late.  He is now 5-8 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 17 starts this season after going 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA in his last six starts, allowing a whopping 29 earned runs in 35 innings.  Sabathia is also 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in two career starts against Houston.

The Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Houston is 21-7 in its last 28 home games.  The Astros are 12-3 in Fister's last 15 starts.  Houston is 10-1 in Fister's last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -138

The Houston Astros are rolling right now having won four straight while going 37-16 in their last 53 games overall.  Look for them to take Game 1 of this series with the New York Yankees thanks to their huge edge on the mound.

Dallas Keuchel has been at his best at home this season, going 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in eight starts.  he is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.  Keuchel owns the Yankees, going 4-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 0.757 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Michael Pineda has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The right-hander is 4-9 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-5 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in eight road starts.  Pineda is also 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in four career starts against Houston.

Keuchel is 14-1 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Astros are 24-6 in Keuchel's last 30 home starts.  Bet the Astros Monday.

20* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +125

The San Francisco Giants have lost six of their last seven games overall.  It's almost unheard of considering they are 58-39 on the season and among the best teams in baseball.  They end this skid Sunday.

Jeff Samardzija is having a very good year, going 9-5 with a 4.05 EA and 1.210 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi, who is 7-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 17 starts.

Eovaldi has never fared well against the Giants, going 1-4 with a monstrous 13.30 ERA and 2.284 WHIP in five career starts against them.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +121

The St. Louis Cardinals are on a roll right now.  They have won five straight games and figure to make it six in a row today against the Dodgers.  They should not be home underdogs here with the way they are playing right now.

This line would indicate the Dodgers have the edge on the mound, but that's not the case.  Mike Leake is 7-7 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last two.  He has allowed just two earned runs over 13 innings while striking out 21 in his last two.

Leake is also 2-0 with a minuscule 0.60 ERA in his last two starts against Los Angeles, giving up just one earned run in 15 innings.  He'll be opposed by Kenta Maeda, who has struggled of late going 1-2 with a 5.87 ERA over his last three starts.

St. Louis is 35-11 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a one run win over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven vs. NL West opponents.  The Dodgers are 14-37 in their last 51 meetings in St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants +102

The San Francisco Giants (57-38) have dropped a season high-tying five straight games heading into Friday's showdown with the New York Yankees.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to avoid a 6th straight defeat.

The good news is that ace Madison Bumgarner takes the mound tonight to stop the bleeding.  The left-hander has been brilliant this season, going 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 20 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three.

Masahiro Tanaka has been good at 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 19 starts, but he hasn't been as dominant as Bumgarner.  Tanaka has also struggled at home this season to the tune of a 4.71 ERA over 10 starts.

Situationally, I like this spot for the Giants.  Not only will they be motivated, but they had yesterday off to recoup.  The Yankees played yesterday and had their four-game winning streak come to an end against the Orioles.  Also, the Yankees are only hitting .254 and scoring 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

Bumgarner is 18-2 (+15.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 8-0 in Bumgarner's last eight starts following a loss in their previous game.  The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Giants Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-103)

The Boston Red Sox are rolling right now in going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  They have won seven of those games by two runs or more.  I believe they cover the Run Line with ease today against the lowly Minnesota Twins.

Steven Wright has earned All-Star status this season in going 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 18 starts.  Wright is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.  He faces the Twins on June 10 this season, not allowing a single earned run in 7 1/3 innings of an 8-1 victory.

Tyler Duffey is 5-6 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 15 starts this season for the Twins.  Duffey faced Wright and the Red Sox on June 10, giving up 6 earned runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings of that 1-8 defeat.

Minnesota is 4-22 (-16.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season.  It is losing by 1.7 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last six home games.  Boston is 8-2 in Wright's last 10 starts and 5-1 in his last six home starts.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line.

20* MLB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Houston Astros -125

The Houston Astros are highly motivated for a victory after losing two straight games to the Oakland A's.  They even blew a save in the 9th inning yesterday and eventually lost in the 10th frame.  Look for them to get back on track with a victory here.

Doug Fister is 9-6 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 road starts.  The veteran right-hander is 7-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 18 career starts against Oakland.  In three starts against the A's in 2016, Fister is 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA while allowing only 3 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.

Daniel Mengden is 1-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven starts this year.  He has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.101 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those starts came against Houston on July 8 as Mengden gave up 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-10 loss.

The Astros are a perfect 11-0 in their last 11 Wednesday games.  Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Astros are 11-3 in Fister's last 14 starts overall and 7-1 in his last eight starts vs. AL West opponents.  Bet the Astros Wednesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -136

The Chicago Cubs want serious revenge on the New York Mets.  They were swept in four games in New York earlier this month, and they also lost to the Mets in the NLCS.  They want to return the favor and sweep them in Chicago this time around after taking Game 1 of this series 5-1.

Jake Arrieta also wants to exact some revenge after losing his last two starts against New York.  Arrieta is 12-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in eight home starts.  Arrieta is still 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in seven career starts against the Mets.

There's no question that Noah Syndergaard is one of the best young talents in the game.  But he has struggled quite a bit of late, going 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts.  I look for Arrieta to get the best of him today given the spot.

The Mets are 0-6 in Syndergaard's last six starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Cubs are 72-32 in their last 104 games following a win.  Chicago is 42-14 in Arrieta's last 56 starts.  The Cubs are 11-3 in Arrieta's last 14 home starts.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -170

The St. Louis Cardinals need to kick it into high gear soon if they want to remain in the NL Central race.  After losing two out of three to the Marlins over the weekend, look for the Cardinals to take Game 1 of this series with the lowly San Diego Padres.

Mike Leake is 6-7 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 18 starts this season for St. Louis.  The right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts.  Leake is also 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Padres, who just swept the NL West-leading Giants over the weekend.  Christian Friedrich is 4-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in his last three.  Friedrich is also 0-1 with a 12.47 ERA in his lone career start against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 60-20 (+24.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.   San Diego is 11-35 (-21.3 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last three seasons.  St. Louis is 48-16 in its last 64 home meetings with San Diego.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-130)

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost their first two games back from the All-Star Break to the Padres, including a blown save yesterday in the 9th inning.  Look for them to avoid the sweep and win by multiple runs Sunday.

Johnny  Cueto has been awesome this season, going 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 18 starts.  Cueto is 8-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in nine road starts.  The right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres.

Cueto has been untouchable against the Padres in 2016, going 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA while allowing only one earned run in 27 innings.  He'll be opposed by the washed-up Edwin Jackson, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight career starts against San Francisco.

Cueto is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.  The Giants are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Cueto is 15-1 (+13.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Giants are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Sunday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -111

The Houston Astros are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have gone 32-13 in their last 45 games overall to pull within 4.5 games of the Texas Rangers for the AL West lead.  Look for them to continue their surge with another victory over the Seattle Mariners Saturday.

The Astros are glad to have a healthy Lance McCullers back.  The right-hander is 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA over 10 starts this season with 72 strikeouts in 57 innings.  McCullers has owned the Mariners, going 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Hisashi Iwakuma has struggled for most of the season.  In spite of his 9-6 record, he has posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 18 starts, including a 4.94 ERA in eight home starts.  Houston has had his number, too.  Iwakuma is 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA in his last five starts against the Astros, giving up 20 earned runs in 24 innings.

The Astros are 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The Mariners are 0-5 in Iwakuma's last five starts against the Astros.  Houston is 4-0 in its last four road games.  These three trends combine for a 14-0 system backing Houston.  Plus, the Mariners are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. AL West opponents.  Bet the Astros Saturday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -128

The St. Louis Cardinals haven't played up to their usual standards in the first half.  However, at 46-42, they are still within striking distance of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.  They are in second place and on the fringe of a wild-card berth right now as well.  They want to start the 2nd half on a winning note here.

I like their chances with Jaime Garcia on the mound tonight.  The left-hander is 3-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  He has owned the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Miami counters with Wei-Yin Chen, who has been a bit of a disappointment since coming over in the offseason.  The left-hander is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.267 WHIP In 17 starts this season.  He has never faced the Cardinals.

Miami is 3-20 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having won three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 17-5 in Garcia's last 22 Friday starts.  St. Louis is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Miami.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -149

The Chicago Cubs are more hungry for a win today than they have been all season.  They have lost nine of their last 10 overall and desperately want to go into the All-Star Break with a victory today.  I believe they get that win due to their edge on the mound.

John Lackey is 7-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  The right-hander has fared pretty well against the Pirates, posting a 3.00 ERA in five career starts against them.

Jon Niese is 7-6 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.520 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last three starts.  Niese is 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Cubs.

Chicago is 61-27 (+21.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 60-25 in their last 85 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Pirates are 1-4 in Niese's last five starts.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

25* NL Bounce-Back GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -155

The Chicago Cubs are going through their worst stretch of the season.  They have lost eight of their last nine games overall.  It's safe to say they are highly motivated for a victory Saturday, and I look for them to get one due to their edge on the mound.

Jon Lester is an All-Star this year thanks to his 9-4 record, 2.67 ERA and 1.050 WHIP over 17 starts.  The left-hander owns the Pirates as well, going 4-3 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Chad Kuhl will be making just his third start of the season.  He hasn't fared well in his first two, going 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.364 WHIP while lasting only 11 innings.  He is outclassed here by Lester.

Chicago is 30-10 (+15.5 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 43-17 in their last 60 vs. National League Central.  Chicago is 8-2 in Lester's last 10 starts on 5 days of rest.  The Pirates are 5-16 in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cubs are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Pittsburgh.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Brainer on St. Louis Cardinals -124

After losing three out of four to the Pirates in their previous series, the St. Louis Cardinals (44-41) come into this series with the Milwaukee Brewers highly motivated.  They certainly want to close out the All-Star Break on a high note.

Michael Wacha isn't having his best season, but he has still been solid this year.  Wacha has never lost to the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in five career starts against them.  Look for the domination to continue today.

Jimmy Nelson is having a decent season for the Brewers at 5-7 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 17 starts.  However, Nelson has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-5 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in six career starts against them.  Don't expect him to be picking up his first victory today, either.

The Cardinals are 7-1 in Wacha's last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 10-3 in its last 13 road games.  The Cardinals are 12-3 in their last 15 vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 3-13 in Nelson's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 0-6 in Nelson's last six starts overall.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -136

The St. Louis Cardinals have lost the first three games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They even blew a 5-1 lead yesterday.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to avoid the sweep today.

Ace Adam Wainwright will get the job done and not allow his team to get swept.  Wainwright has been at his best at home this season, going 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in eight starts.  The right-hander is 13-7 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 27 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Tyler Glasnow will be making his major league debut here Thursday.  While he is one of the top prospects in Pittsburgh's organization, this is a tough spot for him to make his debut against a hungry Cardinals team here on the road.

Wainwright is 79-36 (+30.4 Units) against the money line after a loss in his career.  The Cardinals are 38-17 in Wainwright's last 55 home starts.  St. Louis is 83-40 in Wainwright's last 123 starts on 4 days of rest.  The Cardinals are 10-1 in Wainwright's last 11 home starts vs. Pirates.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -147

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday after losing the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I believe they take Game 3 tonight behind the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Jaime Garcia is 6-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in eight home starts.  But what really sticks out to me is that Garcia owns the Pirates, going 2-1 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Jeff Locke is 8-5 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.363 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  He has really struggled on the road, going 3-4 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in nine starts away from home.  Locke is also 2-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series.  Pittsburgh is 2-8 in Locke's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 0-5 in Locke's last five starts vs. NL Central foes.  The Cardinals are 36-17 in their last 53 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  St. Louis is 11-2 in its last 13 vs. NL Central opponents.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Locke's last four road starts vs. St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -133

The Houston Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have gone 27-11 in their last 38 games overall to get to 44-39 on the season and back in the AL West race.  I like the price we are getting with them at home tonight against the Seattle Mariners.

Dallas Keuchel, the former AL Cy Young winner, is undervalued right now due to a shockingly slow start this season.  But he is coming around of late, going 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA in his last three starts.  Keuchel is 4-5 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 10 career starts against Seattle.  The Mariners are a primary left-handed lineup, so he should match up well with them again.

Taijuan Walker has been battling right posterior tibial tendinitis for weeks, a condition that grew so severe in June that he departed starts at Tampa Bay on June 14 and at Boston five days later.  The right-hander has struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in six starts.

The Mariners are 0-5 in Walker's last five road starts.  Seattle is 3-13 in its last 16 road games.  The Astros are 22-6 in Keuchel's last 28 home starts.  Houston is 12-2 in Keuchel's last 14 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Houston.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight for the second time in two weeks.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home from an 11-game road trip today in Game 1 of this series against the Cincinnati Reds.

I look for the Cubs to win by multiple runs due to their edge on the mound.  Kyle Hendricks is 6-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.793 WHIP in in seven home starts.  Hendricks is 2-1 with a 4.04 ERA in six career starts against the Reds.

Cody Reed has not fared well in limited action this season.  He's 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in three starts.  One of those starts was against the Cubs on June 29.  Reed allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers over 4 innings of a 2-9 loss to Hendricks and the Cubs.

Cincinnati is 1-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Reds are 2-16 (-14.2 Units) against the money line revenging a 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 11-0 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -114

The Chicago Cubs are highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the New York Mets.  They also lost to the Mets in the NLCS, so they are playing with double-revenge here essentially.

Jon Lester has actually been the Cubs' best starter in 2016.  He's 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 16 starts, including 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in his eight road starts.  Lester is also 2-1 with a 3.28 ERA in four career starts against New York.

There's no question that Noah Syndergaard is one of the better starters in baseball.  However, he has struggled of late, going 2-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in his last three starts.  He gave up five earned runs in three innings of a 4-11 loss to the Nationals last time out.

Lester is a sensational 14-1 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -102

Any time you can get Chris Sale at even money you should probably take advantage.  That's the case today as the Chicago White Sox look to bounce back from a loss yesterday in Game 2 of this series with the Houston Astros.

Sale is 13-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in eight road starts.  The left-hander has owned the Astros, going 4-1 with a minuscule 0.66 ERA and 0.659 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Doug Fister is having a solid season at 8-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 15 starts this season, but he's not on Sale's level.  Fister is 3-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in 10 career starts against the White Sox.

Sale is 10-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Fister is 4-19 (-16.7 Units) against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career.  Chicago is 14-3 in Sale's last 17 starts.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins +106

Any time the NL-worst Atlanta Braves (27-52) are favored, I'm going to be looking to fade them.  That's the case today as they are favored over the Miami Marlins (41-38), who have been the much more competent team this season.

Justin Nicolino hasn't put up the greatest numbers this year, but he's up against an Atlanta team that is hitting .238 and scoring 3.3 runs per game this season.  Nicolino owns the Braves, going 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Julio Teheran has put up solid numbers this season, but he has gotten zero run support.  That's why the Braves are 4-12 in his 16 starts overall, including 0-9 in his nine home starts.  With a trend like that, there's no way the Braves should be favored here.

Miami is 12-2 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season.  The Marlins are 6-1 in Nicolino's last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Braves are 16-37 in their last 53 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Atlanta is 21-47 in its last 68 home games.  Bet the Marlins Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -140

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated for a victory Thursday.  They have lost three straight to their Bay Area rival Oakland A's to open this series.  They will be hoping to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 4 here tonight.

I certainly like their chances with ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 8-4 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA in seven road starts.  He's a very prideful starter, and he doesn't want to see his team get swept here.

Dillon Overton will be making just his second start of the season for the A's.  His first was a disaster as he gave up 3 homers and 9 base runners over 5 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels.  Look for the Giants to jump on him early and often.

Bumgarner is 21-2 (+19.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Giants Thursday.