15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -3.5

The Toledo Rockets are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to both Michigan State and Richmond in games taht they covered the spread in competitive losses.

Toledo should handle this Marshall team that remains overrated.  The Thundering Herd are 3-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their three wins during this stretch came against Duquesne (by 1), Eastern Kentucky and Bluefield College.  They lost by 10 to Ohio, but 15 to Northern Iowa and also lost to another MAC team in Akron.  Toledo is better than both Ohio and Akron.

Toledo has owned Marshall in recent seasons, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better.  Marshall is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game.  Take Toledo Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Elon +22

Elon has already shown they can stay within big numbers against some good teams this season.  They lost by 17 to North Carolina, by 13 to Florida, by 19 to West Virginia and by 18 to Ole Miss.  Their only really bad loss came to Duke by 31.  So as you can see, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country.

I expect Elon to stay within 22 points of Arkansas tonight.  The Razorbacks were overvalued due to playing a home-heavy, easy schedule en route to a 9-0 start.  They finally played a true road game and lost by 22 at Oklahoma.  They followed up up with an upset loss to Hofstra as a 12.5-point favorite.  And they have no business laying 22 points to Elon tonight.

Elon is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after losing eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Elon Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -5.5

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best 6-7 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have held at least a 6-point lead in all 13 games this season and are clearly better than their record.  But they are still alive for the playoffs, and this is a must-win game for them Monday night in Chicago.

Minnesota got Dalvin Cook back from injury last week and he ran wild on the Steelers in a 36-28 victory last Thursday.  The Vikings had 458 total yards and a 29-0 lead on the Steelers, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Now this is like a mini-bye week for the Vikings, so they should be fresh and ready to go with three extra days' rest.  They are also one of the healthier teams in the NFL.

The same cannot be said for the Bears, who have 12 players on the COVID list and three coordinators now.  Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, defensive coordinator Sean Desai and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor were all working remotely Thursday.  They are likely to be without WR Allen Robinson and DEB Eddie Jackson among many other key players.

This is a bad spot for the Bears as it is even without the COVID news.  At 4-9 now, they have no chance of making the playoffs.  They just blew a 27-21 halftime lead against the Packers and were outscored 24-3 after intermission in a 45-30 loss.  They were fortunate to even be in that game thanks to several big special teams plays.  They won't be so fortunate against this motivated Vikings team to keep this one close for long.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Take the Vikings Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall and are way more competitive than they get credit for.  Look for them to stay within this lofty number against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

While the Thunder are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 100-105 home loss to Portland last night.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the Grizzlies.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Memphis as it is considering they are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have done most of this without Ja Morant and being short-handed without Brandon Clark and a few others as well.  But now these injuries will start to catch up with them in this tough rest spot tonight.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.  Memphis is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Finally, Oklahoma City wants revenge from the worst loss in NBA history, a 79-152 loss at Memphis on December 2nd earlier this month.  You know they are going to be motivated to avenge that defeat.  And their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.6 PPG) did not play in that game and he is playing at an All-Star level right now.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Thomas -2.5

Nebraska-Omaha is one of the worst teams in the country.  They are 1-10 this season and losing by 18.0 points per game on average.  They haven't won a game since their 67-57 victory over Hastings College in their opener.  All 10 losses have come by 4 points or more and eight of them by double-digits.

St. Thomas has been competent this season at 4-5 and 4-2 ATS in lined games.  Four of their five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They were competitive in losses to Drake and Montana State recently, which are two of the better mid-major programs.  They should handle Nebraska-Omaha here.

The Tommies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Thomas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Mavericks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Omaha is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with St. Thomas Monday.

20* Tulsa/Old Dominion ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Old Dominion +9

Old Dominion didn't even play last season due to COVID.  Monarchs head coach Ricky Rahne had a tall task ahead of him.  That showed early in the season as the Monarchs opened 1-6.  But they have since going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS to get to 6-6 and earn a bowl bid.

It's safe to say Old Dominion will be highly motivated for a bowl victory after fighting so hard at the end of the season just to get here.  And it will be just the second bowl game in program history, adding to the motivation.

The turnaround for the Monarchs came when freshman QB Hayden Wolff replaced UCF transfer Darriel Mack Jr. midseason.  He completed 62.2% of his passes and was way more elusive than Mack Jr, leading the Monarchs to a 5-1 record in his six starts down the stretch.

Tulsa also had a nice finish just to make this bowl game, but I don't think the Golden Hurricane can be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They are 6-6 as well but five of those six wins came by one score.  Their only blowout victory came against lowly Temple, which finished 1-7 in AAC play.

Tulsa QB Davis Brin had a 16-to-16 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Golden Hurricane rely heavily on the run to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for the Monarchs.  They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, ranking in the Top 25 in the country against the run.

Conference USA has looked impressive in bowl games thus far.  Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).  Tulsa is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Antonio Spurs -4.5

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and it is showing with their play. They have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming off an upset win at Utah as 11.5-point underdogs.

The Spurs are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. They should make easy work of a struggling Sacramento Kings team that is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their last three losses coming by 14 points or more.

Things aren't getting any better for the Kings any time soon due to COVID hitting them hard. They will be without De'Aaron Rox, Marvin Bagley, Alex Len, Terence Davis and Davion Mitchell tonight. They could also be without Richaun Holmes, who is questionable.

The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites. The Kings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five Sunday games. San Antonio is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins by 9 points or more. Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +9

The San Francisco 49ers were fortunate to win last week at Cincinnati. The Bengals gave that game away by muffing two punts in their own territory. The 49ers recovered all four fumbles in the game. And they still needed overtime to beat the Bengals, 26-23.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the 49ers even though I like this team. They are now laying way too many points at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who are still in playoff contention at 6-7 this season. And while the 49ers have struggled at home in recent years, the Falcons have been a great bet on the road.

Indeed, the Falcons are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS away from home this season. They have upset wins over the Giants, Dolphins, Saints and Panthers. And they have a great path to the playoffs if they can pull another upset here because they have Detroit on deck next week.

The 49ers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. San Francisco is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games as a home favorite. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -17.5

I expect the Oklahoma Sooners to be one of the most improved teams in the country from the beginning of the season to the end. That's because they have one of the best head coaches in the country in Porter Moser, who is in his first year at Oklahoma.

The Sooners are 8-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with impressive wins over Florida, Arkansas and UCF. They just blasted Arkansas by 22 points last time out.

Now the Sooners have had a full week to get ready for UT-Arlington having last played on December 11th. They'll be rested and ready to destroy a 3-6 Arlington team that already has blowout losses to Oklahoma State by 37, North Texas by 28 and Utah State by 19.

Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Arlington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games. Moser is 21-9 ATS as a head coach in home games after scoring 80 points or more. Take Oklahoma Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers ML +103

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-6-1 and are playing for their playoff lives this week.  Look for a big effort from them.  I always like backing Mike Tomlin off a loss and as an underdog.  And I think the wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.

The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and are expected to have T.J. Watt this week, one of the best defensive players in the NFL.  The same cannot be said for the Titans, who have 20 players out and another eight questionable.

Tennessee's offense has hit the skids since losing both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown to injury, their two best players.  In their last five games, the Titans managed just 194 yards against the Rams, 264 yards against the Saints, 13 points in an upset loss to the Texans as 10.5-point favorites, 13 points against New England and just 263 yards against Jacksonville.

The Steelers have managed 300 or more yards in five straight games offensively.  They have by far the better offense right now, and I rank these teams pretty even defensively.  Plus you have to give the Steelers a few points for home-field advantage and simply needing the game more.  It all adds up to the wrong team being favored.

Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 35 points or more.  Tennessee is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Titans are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Lions +13

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have not quit and continue to get the money for backers.  And their 38-10 loss to Denver was very misleading last week.  They were only outgained by 42 yards despite missing a ton of players due to COVID, but they had two turnovers in the red zone.

Now the Lions will get back several players they were missing last week.  And they will relish this opportunity to try and beat the team with the best record in the NFC in the Arizona Cardinals.  The Lions have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to improve to 8-5 ATS this season.  So despite their 1-11-1 SU record, they continue fighting for bettors' money.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS on the road this season with all seven wins by double-digits.  Odds are they can't keep this streak going now that the books have over-adjusted for it this week.  The Cardinals will be without their best receiver in De'Andre Hopkins, who suffered a possible season-ending injury last week.

They also have their top two running backs in James Conner and Chase Edmonds questionable.  Not to mention, this is a terrible spot for the Cardinals.  They are on a short week after losing 30-23 at home tot he Rams on Monday Night Football.  And they have a big game on deck against the Colts on Saturday.  They will be just looking to get in and get out with a win against the Lions with zero incentive to run up the score.

Detroit is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss by 28 points or more.  Arizona is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7.5 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games with all nine wins coming by double-digits!

The two losses were to the Jazz by 1 and the Bucks by 8. Now they have a chance to avenge that defeat to the Bucks, who are in a terrible spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 112-116 (OT) loss in New Orleans last night.

It will also be the 11th game in 18 days in December for the Bucks. Making matters worse is that they will be without Giannis antetokoumpho, Bobby Portis and Wesley Matthews and could be without Khris Middleton, who is questionable. I don't give them much of a chance against the Cavaliers tonight without Giannis and in this awful rest spot. Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards tonight after going 1-7 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They are now catching double-digits against the Utah Jazz. The Wizards are as healthy as they have been in a while and should give the Jazz a run for their money tonight.

The reason is simple. This is a terrible spot for the Jazz. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 126-128 upset loss to the San Antonio Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last night. Now they come back as 10.5-point favorites tonight against a better Washington team, which makes no sense. Take the Wizards Saturday.

20* Auburn/Saint Louis CBB No-Brainer on Saint Louis +5.5

The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the better mid-majors programs in the country under Travis Ford. They are 8-3 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with two of their three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.

The Billikens are battle-tested in the early going with wins over Stephen F. Austin, Boise State and Boston College as well as losses to Memphis, UAB and Belmont. They are ready to take on an Auburn team that has feasted on a weak schedule and is overrated.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after opening 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS this season. This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season as they have played a home-heavy schedule. The first was a shaky 58-52 win at South Florid as 13-point favorites and that is a terrible Bulls team.

Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after playing two consecutive home games. The Billikens are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games. Saint Louis is 42-20 ATS in its last 62 games as an underdog. Auburn is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -130

The Indianapolis Colts might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They are just 7-6 but much better than that record.  They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 7 points per game on the season with a balanced offense and a very good defense that allows just 21.8 points per game.

The Colts opened 0-3 amid injuries and poor play.  They have since gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and are very close to being on a 10-game winning streak.  They blew a 19-point lead and lost in OT to the Ravens, lost in OT at home to the Titans after another late blown lead, and blew a 14-point lead to the Bucs in a last-second loss.  The fact that they competed with those three teams and took them all to the wire tells all you need to know about the Colts' potential.

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.  They aren't nearly as good as their 9-4 record would indicate.  And the bye actually came at a bad time for them because they had all the momentum, stopping the Bills twice in the Red Zone to preserve a 14-10 victory last time out.  They have feasted on the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  They come back down to reality this week against the Colts, who beat the Bills 41-15 on the road a couple weeks ago.

Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a division game.  Indianapolis is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -1.5

Georgia should be a bigger favorite at home over George Mason tonight. After a rough start to the season against a brutal schedule, the Bulldogs have turned the corner.

They had tough losses to Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Northwestern and Wofford in a 2-5 start. But they have since put together two straight great performances in an upset win over Memphis as 11.5-point dogs and a cover against Jacksonville as 9-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs take on a reeling George Mason team that is just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The lone win was a 71-65 home victory over Navy which is far from impressive. They also lost to Old Dominion by 10, James Madison, Washington, South Dakota State and Nevada by 19. Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* South Carolina/Clemson CBB ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +8.5

Frank Martin always seems to have his South Carolina Gamecocks flying under the radar. That appears to be the case again this season as the Gamecocks are off to an 8-2 SU & 5-4 ATS start this season.

Indeed, the Gamecocks have already pulled off upset wins over UAB and Florida State as well as a 13-point win over Georgetown, an 11-point win over Wofford and an 11-point win over Western Kentucky.

Clemson is 7-4 this season with losses to Rutgers, Miami, West Virginia and St. Bonaventure. The Tigers don't have many impressive wins as their seven victories have come against Miami Ohio, Drake, Charleston, Temple, Bryant, Wofford and Presbyterian. So Wofford is a common opponent and they beat them by 8 while South Carolina beat them by 11, both at home.

South Carolina is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after a home win where it scored 85 points or more. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, including a 67-54 upset win by the Gamecocks as 6-point road dogs in their last meeting. Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +9.5

The Liberty Flames had high expectations this season after going 10-1 last year and beating Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl to finish No. 17 in the polls.  The Flames opened 7-2 this season before finishing with three straight losses to Ole Miss, Louisiana and Army all by double-digits and by a combined 56 points.

Now I question the Flames' motivation heading into the LendingTree Bowl sitting at 7-5.  They go from playing unbeaten Coastal Carolina in their bowl game last year to playing a 7-5 Eastern Michigan team from the MAC.  I don't think they will be all that motivated, and they are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us.

I know Eastern Michigan is going to be motivated.  In fact, the Eagles haven't won a bowl game since 1987.  They didn't go to another bowl until 2016.  They have since lost three straight bowl games all by 4 points or fewer, covering the spread in all three bowl games.  It's safe to say they are highly motivated to cash in that first bowl victory.

Eastern Michigan has been the king of one-score games under head coach Chris Creighton, which is why there's a ton of value getting them as +9.5 dogs.  Dating back to the middle of 2019, Eastern Michigan has 14 losses.  A whopping 10 of those have come by 8 points or fewer.  So they have lost just four of their last 26 games by more than 8 points to put it better.

This Eastern Michigan offense is never going to be out of the game.  They score 31.0 points per game on the season.  QB Ben Bryant is completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,921 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  They will be opposed by a similar Liberty offense that averages 31.8 points per game on the season.

Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  The Eagles are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Eagles are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss.  Eastern Michigan is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog.  Take Eastern Michigan in the LendingTree Bowl.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Canisus +15.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on this 2-9 Canisius team that just doesn't get blown out. Eight of their nine losses have come by 14 points or fewer, so within this 15.5-point spread.

This is a terrible spot for Buffalo. They are coming off two straight huge road games against St. Bonaventure and Western Kentucky and won't be nearly as motivated for this game with Canisius. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulls after opening 6-1 ATS in their lined games this season.

Canisius is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus boards more than their opponent per game. The Golden Griffins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs. Bet Canisius Saturday.

20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +7

I think UAB wants to be here more than BYU.  And I like the matchup for the Blazers.  BYU just completed a 10-2 season and knocked off several Pac-12 opponents along the way.  They feel like they deserve a better bowl game than the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.

I've actually been to a bowl game in Shreveport when Iowa State played last.  It's kind of a dump in and around the stadium.  No offense to anyone that lives there reading this writeup, but it's not the greatest destination.  BYU thought they had an outside shot of playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl.

It is a pretty short drive for UAB fans from Birmingham to Shreveport just over 6 hours.  I think it will be like a home game for the Blazers.  "I'm really proud of our selection to the bowl game, and man, what a great opponent we've got in BYU," Clark said on Monday. "I know our players are all going to be excited for the challenge ahead."

And the weather is going to help UAB keep this game close.  There's a 90% chance of precipitation Saturday with 15 MPH winds, too.  This game will mostly be played on the ground.  UAB prefers to run the football, averaging 177 rushing yards per game.  They should be able to run the ball on a BYU defense that gives up 151 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

BYU also likes to run the ball at 188 rushing yards per game.  But the strength of UAB's team is their front 7 defensively.  They give up just 105 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry this season.  In their last three games against pretty good rushing teams they held Marshall to 37 yards on 21 carries, UTSA to 52 yards on 34 carries and UTEP to 99 yards on 30 carries.

UAB is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more yards per game this season.  BYU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  BYU fans have come out and said they are less than thrilled to be playing UAB.  Meanwhile, it has been a different story for UAB fans and head coach Bill Clark and his players.  Roll with UAB in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that is the case. That has shown in their last two games as they have pulled outright road upsets over the Blazers 116-111 and Nuggets 124-107.

Having De'Angelo Russell healthy has really made all the difference for this game. With him, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards on the floor at the same time the Timberwolves are capable of beating anyone. They will take down the short-handed Lakers tonight.

The Timberwolves are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 6th game in 14 days. The Lakers won their last three games against three short-handed, terrible teams in the Thunder, Magic and Mavericks. Now they take a step up in class here and it's time to 'sell high'. 

The Lakers will be without Russell Westbrook, Avery Braldey, Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker and Dwight Howard tonight due to COVID. Los Angeles is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. Take the Timberwolves Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Tarleton State ML +105

I love the spot for Tarleton State tonight. This is a home-and-home situation. After losing 62-69 at South Alabama on Tuesday, the Texans host the Jaguars four days later here Friday and will be out for revenge. They blew a 4-point halftime lead in that game.

Tarleton State has played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the entire country this season, so they are battle-tested. They were competitive against Stanford, Wichita State, Michigan and Gonzaga which is all that needs to be said about the potential of this team.

South Alabama has feasted on a much weaker schedule and is overvalued with its 9-2 record. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars after opening 6-1 ATS in all lined games. This is clearly a flat spot for them, and they won't be nearly as motivated as Tarleton State after winning the first meeting.

The Texans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs. The Jaguars are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road favorites. South Alabama is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite overall. Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

20* Toledo/Middle Tennessee Bowl Season Opener on OVER 49

Toledo is going to take care of this total mostly on their own and I'd lean to laying the points with them too.  But I feel better about the OVER 49.  The Rockets have the superior offense in this game that averages 34.2 points per game on the season and led the MAC in scoring.

Toledo has really been humming on offense of late.  The Rockets have scored 34 or more points in five consecutive games while averaging 43.2 points per game during this stretch.  I think they get to 34 or more in this game, which just means we need a couple touchdowns from Middle Tennessee to get the OVER.

Middle Tennessee has been much better on offense than they get credit for, especially since changing quarterbacks.  The Blue Raiders are putting up 29.8 points per game on the season.  They have scored 21 or more points in five of their last six games overall and probably only need to get to 21 at most to cash this OVER.

The Blue Raiders went 3-2 with starter Nicholas Vattiato at quarterback to close the season.  He is comlpeting 67.4% of his passes and only had one really bad game with five interceptions in a 48-21 loss to Western Kentucky, one of the best teams in C-USA.

Forecasts are calling for 81 degrees and mostly sunny during this game with only a 10% chance of precipitation and 15 MPH winds.  While the winds will be a little brisk, they won't be bad enough to affect this game much.  I think this total has dropped way too much from the opener of 54.5 and there's a ton of value on the OVER.

The OVER is 4-0 in Middle Tennessee's last four bowl games with combined scores of 58 or more points in all four.  Toledo is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games after scoring 37 points or more last game.  The Blue Raiders are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 road games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the OVER today.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Chargers OVER 51.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should get back Keenan Allen this week from COVID protocol.  Their already potent offense should be even stronger as it is nearly at full strength.  They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be without their best player in Chris Jones due to COVID.

"The only guy you can really compare him to is probably Aaron Donald," Tyrann Mathieu said.  "You talk about inside dominance.  It's going to be a big challenge for us to replace him."

Of course, the way the Chiefs are going offensively right now they will be able to match the Chargers score for score.  They just hung 48 points on the Raiders last week after scoring 41 on them in their first meeting a couple weeks ago.  This Kansas City offense is pretty much at full strength now and ready for a big finish.

These are two of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  The Chargers rank 29th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, while the Chiefs are 26th at 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs are also 31st allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense.  Only the Jets have been worse than them in this category.

This has been an OVER series.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 52 or more combined points.  That includes the 30-24 upset win by the Chargers as 7-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season.  The Chiefs should have won that game as they were -4 in turnovers, had 33 first downs and 437 total yards.  They should have scored more than 24 points.  Both offenses should top 24 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -5

This is a terrible spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days in their 4th difference city.  They won't have much left in the tank for the New York Knicks tonight.

Making matters worse for the Rockets is that they are likely to be pretty short-handed.  They will be without Jalen Green (14.0 PPG), Danuel House (4.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (16.5 PPG), who is doubtful.  Both Kevin Porter Jr. (12.8 PPG) and Eric Gordon (15.1 PPG) are questionable tonight as well.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, who have gone just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall against a brutal schedule.  Their seven losses have come to the Nets, Bulls, Nuggets, Pacers, Raptors, Bucks and Warriors.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Rockets and should get back on track with a blowout victory.

Houston is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a wins between 40% & 49% of their games.  The Rockets are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 home games.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Houston.  Take the Knicks Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points to the Golden State Warriors, who are one of the best teams in the NBA.

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department.  They were already wtithout Brook Lopez and Donte DiVencenzo, but now they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Wesley Matthews, DeMarcus Cousins and Semi Ojeleye tonight.  Khris Middleton is questionable as well.  Missing Giannis gives the Bucks almost no chance of winning this game against the Pacers tonight, let alone all these other injuries.

The Pacers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 12 days.  The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who will be playing their 9th game in 15 days and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  That makes matters even worse considering their injury situation.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after playing three consecutive home games.  The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +13

SE Missouri State is simply catching too many points today.  They are 5-5 this season with only one loss by more than 13 points.  That includes their 99-94 win at Missouri State as 16-point dogs, a fellow Missouri Valley Conference team like Southern Illinois.

The Salukis haven't shown me enough to warrant being 13-point favorites in this matchup.  They are 5-4 this season with their five wins coming against Southern Miss, Alcorn State, Evansville, Austin Peay and Colorado.  They have just two wins by more than 4 points this season.

Southern Illinois is 20-35 ATS in its last 55 games as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points.  The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet SE Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Mavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are starting to play up to their potential now that they have had LeBron, Westbrook and Davis healthy for a decent stretch.  They have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with each of their last four wins by double-digits.  Davis is questionable tonight but he usually plays when he is questionable.

Amazingly, the Dallas Mavericks have won two games in a row without Luka Doncic over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets.  But the Lakers are a different animal, and I don't give the Mavericks much of a chance at all to win this game without Doncic.

Plays on road favorites (LA Lakers) - after allowing 100 points or fewer in two straight games against an opponent that led by 20 points or more at halftime last game are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Dallas is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a win.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Middle Tennessee +11.5

Middle Tennessee is 8-2 this season with its only losses both coming on the road to Stephen F. Austin by 13 and Murray State by 6 as double-digit underdogs in both games.  The Blue Raiders are a legit mid-major team this year and fully capable of hanging with Ole Miss tonight.

This is a 6-3 Ole Miss team with some very bad losses already.  They are coming off a 23-point loss to Western Kentucky as 5.5-point favorites.  They were also upset by Boise State by 10 and Marquette by 6.  Their only good win was a 67-63 victory over Memphis at home, but that Memphis team has clearly been overrated this season.

The Blue Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Middle Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Ole Miss is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Middle Tennessee Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 17-12 SU & 21-6-2 ATS this season.  They have been especially dominant of late, going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

The Cavaliers are now 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming by 1 to the Jazz and by 8 to the Bucks, two of the best teams in the NBA.  What's most impressive about this run is that all eight of those victories have come by 11 points or more!

Now the Cavaliers should win by double-digits over the Houston Rockets, who are starting to get respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But this isn't the same Rockets team that had all that success due to some recent injuries.  

They will be without Jalen Green (14.0 PPG), Danuel House (4.8 PPG), Kevin Porter Jr. (12.8 PPG) and Eric Gordon (15.1 PPG) tonight.  Not to mention, Christian Wood (16.5 PPG) is questionable.  Take the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +8

Santa Clara is a veteran team that didn't lose a single double-digit scorer from last season.  But they have been disappointing after a 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS start with upset wins over Nevada, Stanford and TCU.  They have since gone just 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Now I think it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Broncos as they are catching 8 points against Boise State tonight.  They have only lost one time by more than 7 points all season, so this is a nice value.

And this isn't a very good Boise State (6-4) team compared to previous versions with all they lost from last season.  The Broncos already have four losses this season including upset losses to UC-Irvine and CS-Bakersfield.  Their six wins have come against Prairie View A&M, CS-Northridge, Ole Miss, Temple, Tulsa and Utah Valley State as they were favored in five of those six games.

Santa Clara is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Santa Clara is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Santa Clara Tuesday.

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State +24

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  They are coming off two straight road games against Providence and Tennessee in which they lost by 4 to the Friars before rebounding with a 5-point win over the Volunteers.  

Now the Red Raiders have an even bigger game on deck against Gonzaga on Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot and a huge lookahead spot to that Gonzaga game.  The Red Raiders won't be fully focused for this one, and that's going to make it very hard for them to cover this 24-point spread.

That's especially the case considering Arkansas State is a quality, veteran team that returned all five starters from last season.  The Red Wolves are off to a 7-2 start this season with their losses coming to Illinois and Morehead State.  But they have failed to cover three in a row coming in SU wins at big favorites, so it's a great time to 'buy low' on them.

Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after winning four or five of its last six games coming in.  Arkansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  The Red Wolves are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Arkansas State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Red Wolves.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +11.5

DePaul is grossly overrated right now after opening 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS against an extremely soft schedule with eight home games and just one road game.  That road game was impressive with an upset win at Louisville last time out, but that also makes this a letdown spot for them and a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons as double-digit road favorites.

Illinois-Chicago is just 3-6 this season but most of the losses have been within this number against quality teams.  They only lost by 10 at Dayton, upset Valpo on the road, and covered as 18-point dogs at Loyola-Chicago.  Their other four losses all came by 12 points or fewer as they were dogs in three of the four and a 1-point favorite in the other.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (DePaul) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 154-95 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Blue Demons.  They are coming off the upset win at Louisville and now they have a road game at Northwestern on deck Saturday.  They won't be giving Illinois-Chicago their full attention tonight, and that's going to make it difficult to cover this 11.5-point spread.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The books have adjusted this line too much for this back-to-back spot for the Toronto Raptors.  Well, they had two days off prior to beating the Kings 124-101 last night.  And that blowout allowed them to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.

The Raptors will still have plenty left in the tank for the Nets tonight.  It will be just their 4th game in 9 days.  Nobody played more than 32 minutes for the Raptors last night in a dominant team win with nine players scoring in double figures against the Kings.

I just don't think the Nets can be trusted to lay these big numbers without Joe Harris and Paul Millsap.  It just puts so much pressure on James Harden and Kevin Durant to do more because they don't have much talent outside of those two.  It's a big reason it has been profitable to fade the Nets this season.  They are only outscoring opponents by 3.7 points per game on the season.

The Raptors are playing their best basketball of the year right now at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Brooklyn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as favorites.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210.5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers will be without their top two scorers tonight in Devin Booker (23.2 PPG) for the Suns and Paul George (25.0 PPG) for the Clippers.  They will both be looking to make up for it on defense as they'll be a little lost on offense without these guys.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Suns' last three games overall without Booker.  They are a great defensive team as it is though, ranking 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  The Clippers went UNDER the total in their first game without George last time out.  They are also an elite defensive team, ranking 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five games playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.  The UNDER is 29-15 in Suns last 44 division games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will be their 4th different city during this stretch.  And they will be without their best player in Luka Doncic tonight.

It's a great spot for the Charlotte Hornets, who come in on two days' rest and get back Terry Rozier from COVID tonight.  They have managed to play well despite missing some key players, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses coming by 2 points at Milwaukee, by 3 to Philadelphia and by 4 to Philadelphia.  They can beat the Mavericks without Doncic given the favorable spot.

Dallas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Mavericks are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games following a road win.  Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Dallas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 home games.  The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Hornets Monday.

20* Rams/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams.  They lost three straight and failed to cover five in a row prior to their 37-7 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  They got right and gained some confidence, and now they want revenge from a misleading 20-37 home loss to the Cardinals in their first meeting this season.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a misleading 33-22 win against the Bears last week.  They only managed 257 total yards against the Bears and were outgained by 72 yards.  They simply benefited from being +4 in turnovers.  They improved to 7-0 on the road this season with seven wins by double-digits, which is crazy.

The Cardinals have been much more vulnerable at home this season.  They are 3-2 at home but two of those wins were misleading ones against the Vikings (by 1) and 49ers (by 7).  The Vikings gave that game away by missing kicks, including a short game-winner.  The 49ers lost 17-10 with Trey Lance at QB and squandered a ton of opportunities in Arizona territory.  The other win was against the Texans.  They also lost to the depleted Packers at home, and were crushed by the Panthers 34-10 at home.

That was a rare loss by the Rams against the Cardinals earlier this season.  They had dominated this series, and I look for Sean McVay to get back to his dominance of Kliff Kingsbury as he is the better coach and will make the proper adjustments.  The Rams are still 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals with all eight wins by 7 points or more and seven by double-digits.

Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Arizona.  The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games in the second half of the season.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Rams) - after failing to cover three of their last four games ATS against an opponent that covered three of their last four games ATS are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rams Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are back healthy with Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey.  It's starting to show as they have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall, including a win over the potent Warriors last time out.  Look for them to make easy work of the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Grizzlies have been winning despite their injuries, going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  But there's more added to the list tonight.  They were already without JA Morant and Brandon Clarke and remain without those two tonight.  But now Steven Adams is doubtful, and that's key because they need him to defend Joel Embiid.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable for the Grizzlies as well.

The 76ers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites.  Plays against home underdogs (Memphis) - after covering four or five of their last six games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the 76ers Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State +13

The Cleveland State Vikings returned all five starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last year.  After 10 and 11-point losses to two quality teams in BYU and Ohio to open the season, respectively, the Vikings have reeled off six straight victories with five by double-digits.

Now they are ready to give Oklahoma State a run for its money tonight.  The Cowboys are grossly overrated this season, and it has really shown in their last three games.  They only beat Oral Roberts by 1 as 9.5-point favorites, were upset by Wichita State by 9 as 6-point home favorites and were upset by Xavier by 6 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by Oakland as 17-point home favorites earlier this season.

Oklahoma State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% shooting or less.  The Vikings are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  Cleveland State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.  Bet Cleveland State Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall.  They have no business being road favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight considering they will be without their best player in Luka Doncic (25.6 PPG, 8.5 APG, 8.0 RPG).  There may not be a more important player in the NBA to his team than Doncic.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season posting a 15-10 ATS record.  They pulled off two straight upset road wins over the Pistons and Raptors before getting crushed by a motivated Lakers team last time out.  I think that blowout loss by 21 points has them undervalued today.

Dallas is 1-8 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season.  The Mavericks are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Thunder are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 Sunday games.  Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Thunder are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53

It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday.  The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds.  It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL.   The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season.

And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds.  And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short.

The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense.  They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season.  Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season.

The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL.  His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week.  The Bills will get their offense going this week.  They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season.

They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary.  Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already.  The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone.  The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs.  I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both.

Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game.  The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs.  The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dayton +2.5

Dayton is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming on the road to SMU by a final of 69-77.  This run includes three upset wins over Miami 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs, Kansas 74-73 as 16-point dogs and Belmont 63-61 as 3.5-point dogs.  

The Flyers followed up those three upsets wins with blowout victories over Alabama State 93-54 as 19.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois 79-41 as 17.5-point favorites.  So they avoided the letdowns in those games, and that is not a bad loss at SMU.  Look for them to get back in the win column at home today against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are 6-3 this season with their six wins all coming against cupcake opponents other than Maryland, which is way down this season.  They lost to Memphis and Xavier on neutrals and were blasted at home by Wake Forest 61-80 as 8.5-point favorites.  This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season today.

Dayton is 22-6 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. ACC opponents.  The Hokies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Flyers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Take Dayton Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns -2

This is the perfect spot for the Cleveland Browns.  I don't remember ever seeing a team play the same team twice surrounding their bye week.  But that's the situation for the Browns.  They lost to the Ravens 16-10 on the road in Week 12 before getting their bye last week.  And now they get to host the Ravens coming out of their bye.  So they have basically been preparing for the Ravens for three straight weeks.  That's a huge advantage for them.

The Ravens have been in five straight dog fights the last five weeks with four games decided by one score.  That includes their 20-19 loss to the Steelers last week in which they went for a 2-point conversion after scoring in the final seconds but came up just short.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat.

And while the Browns are healthier coming out of their bye, the injury situation is a terrible one for the Ravens.  The reason they went for 2 was because they were down to three cornerbacks and didn't like their chances in overtime.  Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers.  

They also have key injuries along their front seven on defense and along their offensive line.  Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine in recent weeks trying to do too much.  He has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 24 games in their last six games.  This really looks like a Ravens team that is close to falling apart, and that could very well happen this week against the Browns.

The Ravens are the most overrated team in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-4 record.  They finally lost a close game last week, and their stats are awful.  They average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 6.0 yards per play, getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  The rank 31st on defense in yards per play allowed.

The Browns gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  So they have been a full one yard per play better than Baltimore this season.  They rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense.

We're getting the better, healthier team in the better situation off the bye as a short home favorite here of less than a field goal.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Las Vegas Raiders after a 15-17 home loss to the Washington Football Team last week.  This came after a 36-33 upset win at the Dallas Cowboys.  The Raiders can stay within single-digits of the Chiefs and possibly pull off the upset.

This is also a great 'sell high' spot on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight victories and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They never should have covered in their 22-9 win over the Broncos last week.  They were outgained by 137 yards by the the Broncos in that contest and gave up 404 total yards and only 9 points, which doesn't add up.

This Kansas City offense just isn't the same as it used to be.  They were held to 267 yards by the Broncos, 370 by the Cowboys, 237 by the Packers, 368 by the Giants and 334 by the Titans in five of their last six games.  Of course, the one exception was when they went off against the Raiders, but I'm expecting the Raiders to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  They will be out for revenge as well.

Las Vegas looks like the better team when you dive into the important stats.  The Raiders rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, while the Chiefs rank 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders rank 9th in the NFL allowing 5.3 yards per play on defense, while the Chiefs rank 30th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  Las Vegas outgains its opponents by 0.7 yards per play, while Kansas City is getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Chiefs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Kansas City is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Chiefs go from being 2.5-point road favorites at Las Vegas to 10.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  This is too big of an adjustment.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  They just beat the 76ers by 22 and the Timberwolves by 32 in their last two games.  But that was a short-handed Timberwolves team, and that was a tired 76ers team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Now the Jazz have to face a rested, motivated Washington Wizards team.  The Wizards will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  They will be motivated after losing three of their last four games.  Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 15-11 SU, including 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home.

Washington is 11-2 ATS vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Wizards are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Jazz with two outright upsets as 10.5-point underdogs in both games.  Utah is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road to Michigan State and Oakland, two very good teams.  They have handled all other comers, and they will hang with Richmond Saturday.

The Spiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-4 SU this season with their five wins coming against NC Central, Georgia State, HOfstra, Wofford and Northern Iowa.  They have lost to the four best teams they have faced in Utah State, Maryland, Mississippi State and Drake.  And Toledo ranks as one of the best teams they have faced.

Richmond is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Spiders are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  Take Toledo Saturday.

15* Arizona/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +1

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off five straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Iowa.  The 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites and the 87-83 upset win at Iowa showed their potential.

Now the Fighting Illini will hand Arizona their first loss of the season.  The Wildcats have been impressive in their 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS start, but it has come against the 242nd-ranked schedule in the country.  Illinois has played the 92nd-ranked schedule.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who will be playing just their 2nd true road game of the season with the other being against lowly Oregon State.  This will be their toughest test of the season by far.

Illinois is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 80 points or more last game.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more points per game.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +9.5

Oral Roberts made a run to the Sweet 16 last year and brought back a lot of talent from that team.  Now they have played a tough early schedule that ranks 135th in the country.  They are 5-4 with three of their losses coming as big dogs to Colorado State, Oklahoma State (1-point loss) and TCU (8-point loss).

Oral Roberts has proven they can hang with teams like Oklahoma State and TCU, and now they will stay within single-digits of an even worse Missouri State team today.  The Bears are also 5-4, but it has come against the 309th-ranked schedule int he country.  They have upset losses to SE Missouri State as 16-point favorites, E. Tennessee State as 7-point favorites and Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites.  They have no business being a 9.5-point favorite against Oral Roberts today.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Oral Roberts) - off a road win by 10 points ormore against an opponent that is off a road win by 20 points or more are 80-39 (67.2%) ATS since 1997.  

The Golden Eagles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Oral Roberts is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Golden Eagles are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Oral Roberts Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Los Angeles Clippers were already without their best player in Kawhi Leonard.  Now they will be without their second-best player in Paul George, who is nursing an elbow injury.  The Clippers should not be 9-point favorites against anyone without these two, not even the Orlando Magic.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Magic, who have lost three straight road games to Houston, Golden State and Sacramento.  But now they come in fresh and ready to go today on two days' rest.  They will give the Clippers a run for their money without George.

It's not like the Clippers were playing well with George recently, either.  They are just 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Three of those five wins came by 6 points or less, so they aren't blowing anyone out either.  They certainly won't be beating the Magic by double-digits today.

The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 this season.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy +7.5

Both teams will be motivated.  But I just think Navy will be the slightly more motivated team for a couple of different reasons.  First, this is their 'National Championship' game since they won't be going to a bowl game.  Secondly, the Midshipmen want revenge from a 15-0 loss to Army last season.

Navy played a much more difficult schedule than Army this season, which will work in its favor.  The Midshipmen played the 54th-toughest schedule.  Army played the 87th-toughest schedule and took advantage with an 8-3 campaign.

Navy was a much improved team in the second half of the season.  The Midshipmen went 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games.  They took four-team playoff participant Cincinnati to the wire in a 20-27 loss as 29-point dogs.  They actually outgained Cincinnati by 37 yards in that contest.

They went on to upset Tulsa 20-17 as 12-point road dogs and outgained them by 8 yards.  Their only non-cover was a 6-34 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs, and Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country as well so that's understandable.  They took a very good ECU team to the wire in a 35-38 loss as 3.5-point dogs.  Then they crushed Tulsa 38-14 as 13.5-point favorites in their finale.  They are playing well enough to stay within a touchdown of Army and possibly pull off the upset.

Army played a much easier schedule of opposing defenses which is why its offensive numbers are better than Navy.  But these teams are pretty even defensively despite Navy playing the much tougher schedule of opposing offenses.  Navy gives up just 359.8 yards per game on the season, 132 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Army allows 324.1 yards per game, 3.7 per carry and 104 rushing yards per game.  

Navy's defense is good enough to keep them in this game, and it's expected to be low scoring with a 34-point total, so getting over a touchdown here is a nice value.  The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Navy Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2

What more does Colorado State have to do to get respect from oddsmakers?  They brought back all five starters from a team that nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are well on their way to the Big Dance after a 9-0 start this season, outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per game.

The Rams have already picked up some very quality wins over Oral Roberts by 29, Bradley by 6, Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16.  Now they will take down a Mississippi State team that got off to a fast start against a weak schedule, but some holes have showed up of late.

The Bulldogs are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 14 to Louisville on a neutral as a 1.5-point favorite.  They only beat Lamar by 15 as a 22.5-point home favorite.  And they were upset as 11.5-point home favorites by a bad Minnesota team.  I would argue this is their toughest test of the season to date.

The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Colorado State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rams are 11-3 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Niko Medved is 27-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game in all games as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

The Phoenix Suns are picking up where they left off last season.  They are 20-4 and it's largely due to being one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  Indeed, the Suns rank 2nd in defensive efficiency this season at 101.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

But they are hampered on offense right now without leading scorer Devin Booker (23.2 PPG).  And they'll be up against an improved Boston defense that ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions this season.  This total is simply too high with these two good defensive teams and Booker and Jaylen Brown (21.4 PPG) out.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Suns last five games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers PK

The Cleveland Cavaliers are the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They are 14-12 SU & 18-6-2 ATS this season.  That includes an 8-1 ATS run in their lsat nine games with wins over Chicago by 23, Miami by 31, Dallas by 18 and Washington by 15.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with the four losses coming by an average of 14.0 points per game.  De'Angelo Russell is questionable to play tonight and they aren't nearly as good of a team without him.  But I believe the Cavaliers win this game whether he plays or not.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after covering four of five of its last six games this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show.  They had three straight close losses by single-digits before winning their last two games by 6 over the Wizards and by 20 over the Knicks.

The Pacers are healthy, but they are also fresh and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight.  The same cannot be said for the struggling Mavericks, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city.  The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses to the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Nets.  They are also 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.

Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a win.  The Mavericks are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are just getting no love from the books or bettors alike.  We'll take advantage tonight and back them as home underdogs.  TJ Otzelberger is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country, and it's all of his recruits that are making the biggest impact for the Cyclones this season.

Iowa State is 8-0 this season with upset wins over Xavier 82-70 as 9-point underdogs on a neutral, Memphis 78-59 as 11.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Creighton 64-58 as 5.5-point road dogs.  Penn State transfer Isaiah Brockington (16.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Minnesota transfer Gabe Kalscheur (12.1 PPG), stud freshman PG Tyrese Hunter (11.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) and UNLV transfer Caleb Grill (7.6 PPG) are the top four scorers for the Cyclones thanks to Otzelberger's recruiting.

But the biggest difference has been Otzelberger's coaching to get this team to play defense, which is something Steve Prohm didn't do a good job of before him.  The Cyclones are holding opponents to 60.1 points per game this season, and those opponents typically average 70.1 points per game, so they are holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa is overvalued after a 7-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They opened with six straight home wins as 19.5-point favorites or more before beating Virginia by 1 as 2-point road underdogs.  That's a down Virginia team.  Then they finally played some big boys in Purdue and Illinois and lost despite making some big rallies late after falling behind by double-digits to both.  Those final scores were closer than the games actually were.

The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Fran McCaffery is 6-15 ATS in road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

20* Steelers/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Vikings and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Vikings are coming off two straight road losses to the 49ers and Lions, and that upset loss to the Lions looks real bad.  Meanwhile, the Steelers just upset the Ravens at home.

But now the Steelers hit the road on a short week off a physical game against the Ravens.  Their last two road performances were miserable.  They lost 10-41 at Cincinnati and 37-41 to the Chargers in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were down 27-10 going into the 4th quarter before miraculously scoring 27 points in the final period.  They were outgained by 233 yards by the Chargers and should have lost by more.

Minnesota is back home where they were last seen upsetting the Green Bay Packers.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Their season is on the line here, so we'll get a big effort from them.  And they get back three key players from injury in LB Eric Kendricks, LB Anthony Barr and CB Patrick Peterson.  Being without those three is a big reason why the Lions had success on offense against them last week.

The stats show the Vikings are by far the superior team.  They rank 7th in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense while the Steelers rank just 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is slightly better on defense at 5.7 yards per play allowed while Minnesota gives up 5.8 yards per play.  But the Steelers have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses compared to the Vikings.

Minnesota is much better than its 5-7 record as all seven losses have come by one score.  Pittsburgh isn't as good as its 6-5-1 record as four of its five losses have come by double-digits, while all six wins have come by one score.  So we are getting artificial line value here on the Vikings because most look at these as even teams and give the Vikings 3 points for home field.  But that's just not the case.  The Vikings are the far superior team and it will show tonight.

Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a loss.

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Vikings Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -3

The Los Angeles Lakers are getting healthy now with Lebron, Davis and Westbrook all on the floor together.  They flashed their potential with a 117-102 win over Boston last time out.  And now they are fresh and ready for another big effort tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.

The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 96-104 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night.  They are already short-handed as it is playing without JA Morant, plus Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clark and Sam Merrill are all questionable tonight.  They can't compete with the Lakers without Morant, especially not in this tough rest spot.  

Plays against home underdogs (Memphis) - after covering three of their last four ATS in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS since 1996.  It's time to 'buy low' on Los Angeles after a shaky start to the season due to injuries.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season.  It's no surprise they are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late as a result.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the Clippers, Jazz, Wizards and Mavericks.

Now the Pelicans are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  They take on a Denver Nuggets team that is banged up right now playing without Michael Porter Jr, Jamal Murray and Austin Rivers.  Nikola Jokic is banged up as well and has missed a few games lately, though he is supposed to play tonight.

These injuries are taking their toll as the Nuggets are 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Nuggets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 13-12 SU & 18-5-2 ATS this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off two competitive losses to the Jazz by 1 and Bucks by 8.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the short-handed Bulls.

Chicago is an underrated team too, but they are banged up and without several key players due to COVID.  They are without DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, Coby White and Javonte Green tonight.  I don't give them much of a chance of even keeping this game competitive against the Cavaliers without these guys.

The Cavaliers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Cleveland is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons OVER 209

The OVER is 3-1 in Wizards last four games overall with combined scores of 217 or more points in all three OVERS.  The OVER is 2-0 in Pistons last two games with combined scores of 217 points or more in both games.  And I think there's ample value to pull the trigger on the OVER 209 tonight in this showdown.

Washington and Detroit have combined for 211 or more points in six of their last eight meetings, so this number is short based on head-to-head history as well.  Both teams are getting healthier of late and should start thriving on offense more than they have thus far this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Wizards last six games overall.  The OVER is 18-7 in Pistons last 25 games following four or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 32-17 OVER in is last 49 road games following a road game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Providence.  They have five quality wins already over Texas A&M, Houston, St. Mary's, Georgia Tech and Marquette.  They have played the 56th-toughest schedule in the country.

Indiana is also 7-1, but it has come against the 273rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They were double-digit favorites in six of their seven wins.  In their lone road game, they lost outright to a bad Syracuse team.  And now this will be their toughest test of the season by far at Wisconsin.

Wisconsin simply owns Indiana at home, going 18-1 SU in the last 19 meetings in Madison.  Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Wisconsin Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +2.5

Connecticut is one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskies are 8-1 this season with their only loss coming to Michigan State in overtime after they blew a big late lead.  They also have a win over Auburn on a neutral the day prior that went to multiple overtimes, so it explains how they ran out of gas against Michigan State.

West Virginia is 7-1 this season against a very easy schedule.  They have late bad teams like Oakland (won by 7) and Eastern Kentucky (won by 3) hang around at home.  They lost by 11 to Marquette on a neutral with their best win coming against Clemson by 7 on a neutral.  This will be their toughest test of the season for a rebuilding Mountaineers squad.

West Virginia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after playing two or more consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Take Connecticut Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 219

These teams played in a shootout in their first meeting on November 19th in a 130-108 victory by the Celtics in Boston for 238 combined points.  The OVER is now 7-1 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 226 or more points in six of the last seven.  It should be more of the same tonight, especially with the way these two teams are trending.

The OVER is 4-1 in Lakers last five games overall and they just got LeBron James back healthy.  They lost to the Clippers 115-119 for 234 combined points last time out.  The OVER is 2-0 in Celtics last two games overall as they combined with the Jazz for 267 points and the Blazers for 262 points without overtime in either!

The Lakers play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  Russell Westbrook has been an OVER machine everywhere he has gone because he pushes the pace at the PG position.  Dennis Schroder loves to do the same for the Celtics and has been a great addition to their team this season averaging 17.9 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on North Dakota State +5.5

North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 5-3 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2), Arizona and Creighton.  They have taken care of business against everyone else.

Montana State lost to a team the caliber of North Dakota State in South Dakota State by a final of 74-91.  The Bobcats are 5-4 this season with their only wins coming against Rocky Mountain, Portland, Incarnate Word, SE Missouri State and Sacramento State with two of those wins coming by 3 points or less.

The Bobcats should not be this big of favorites against the Bison, let alone favorites at all.  It's also a tougher rest spot for the Bobcats as they will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days, while the Bison come in on four days' rest after blasting Northland 114-51 last time out on December 2nd.

North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games following an ATS loss.  Montana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  The Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Montana State is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -18.5

The Kansas Jayhawks have faced a brutal schedule thus far and are 6-1 with their only loss coming to Dayton by a single point after blowing a double-digit lead.  They beat St. John's by 20 and Michigan State by 13 with five of their seven games on a neutral thus far.  Now they are back home where they have beaten Tarleton State by 26 and Stony Brook by 29.

Kansas has played the 72nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Now they take a on a 4-3 UTEP team that has played the 192nd schedule.  Their toughest games were two losses to New Mexico State.  The their five games have come against Western New Mexico, Northern New Mexico, Pacific, UC-Riverside (lost by 12) and Florida A&M.  It's safe to say this is a massive step up in class for the Miners.

UTEP is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Miners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  This is an elite Kansas offense averaging 85.4 points per game against teams that only allow 66 points per game, scoring nearly 20 points per game more than their opponents typically allow.  They will run it up here.  Roll with Kansas Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The Phoenix Suns finally had their 18-game winning streak snapped by the Golden State Warriors last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a long winning streak snapped because it tends to be a hangover spot.  The wind is lifted out of their sails.

A big reason the Suns lost to the Warriors is because they were without their best player in Devin Booker.  He remains out tonight with a hamstring injury, and the Suns have no business laying this big of a number against the San Antonio Spurs without him.

This is a fresh Spurs team playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight upset victories over the Celtics by 8, Wizards by 17, Blazers by 31 and Warriors by 5 as 9-point road dogs.  They will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after going under the total by 48 points or more in their last 10 games, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  San Antonio is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Phoenix.  Take the Spurs Monday.

20* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -2.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with most their wins coming via blowout.  But it has been about as an easy a schedule as possible.  They beat the banged-up Jets, the Chargers, the Panthers, the banged-up Browns, the banged-up Falcons and the banged-up Titans.  This is a huge step up in class for them Monday night.

The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.  They bounced back from a bad loss to the Colts where they had four turnovers with a 31-6 road win over the Saints on Thanksgiving.  Now they have had extra rest and will be ready to go Monday night with a great atmosphere in Buffalo with first place on the line in the AFC East.  We'll get an 'A' effort from the Bills, and their 'A' game is much better than that of the Patriots.

New England relies heavily on running the football.  Well, the Bills have allowed 79 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last five games overall.  They key to their run defense is LB Tremaine Edmunds.  The Bills only give up 3.6 yards per carry with him on the field.  Edmunds is healthy now, and this is one of the healthiest rosters in the entire NFL.

I've heard plenty about the weather in Buffalo Monday night being a reason bettors are on the Patriots.  I disagree that the temps in the 20s with near-20 MPH winds helps New England.  I think it actually favors the Bills, who have a strong-armed quarterback in Josh Allen who can cut through any wind, and also beat the Patriots with his legs.  

Mac Jones is more of a finesse quarterback who will struggle more with the wind than Allen will.  The Bills are a better rushing team than the Patriots, too.  They average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry, while the Patriots average 115 yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  New England is only outgaining its opponents by 38.7 yards per game, while Buffalo is outgaining opponents by 113.7 yards per game.  The Bills are clearly the better team and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites here.

Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Bills are 10-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 4 yards per play or less last game.  The Bills are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Patriots come back down to reality with this big step up in competition this week.  Roll with the Bills Monday.

20* Illinois/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +4

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off four straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame and Rutgers.  That 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites showed their potential, and I think we get their 'A' game against Iowa tonight.

The Hawkeyes are overvalued after opening the season 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS.  But their first six games were all at home against suspect competition as they were basically 20-point favorites or more in every game.  They escaped with a 75-74 win at Virginia, a team that is down this season.  And they lost by 7 at Purdue last time out, which was a respectable showing but I think has them overvalued tonight as 4-point favorites against the Fighting Illini.  

I have no doubt Illinois is the better of these two teams and it will show on the court.  The Fighting Illini are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  Roll with Illinois Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Hawks UNDER 221

Charlotte is going to be without its top two guards in LaMelo Ball (20.0 PPG, 8.3 APG) and Terry Rozier (17.7 PPG, 3.6 APG) tonight.  They will be hampered big-time offensively without these two, and they will be playing at a much slower pace than normal.

The Atlanta Hawks also have some injuries that will hamper them offensively and make them play at a slower pace.  They will be without Bogdan Bogdanovic, plus Trae Young, Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter all questionable.  This will be a defensive battle.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 220 or fewer points in all four.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Hornets last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.   The UNDER is 11-2 in Hawks last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -1.5

Northern Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 2-4 record.  They were banged up early in the season and suffered a couple upset losses.  But they have since gotten healthy and have played better.  They returned all five starters and basically everyone from last year.

They are just 2-2 since getting healthy, but close to being 4-0.  They held a 1-point lead in the final three minutes as 12.5-point dogs at Arkansas and lost.  They upset St. Bonaventure 90-80 as 10-point road dogs.  And they lost just before the buzzer to Bradley, 69-71 on the road last time out.

Now the Panthers are back home and taking on a Richmond team that is overrated.  The Spiders are just 4-4 this season.  They lost to Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State.  Their four wins came against NC Central, Georgia State, Hofstra and Wofford with three of those wins coming at home.

Northern Iowa is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Roll with Northern Iowa Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins -4

The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.

The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  They went on to beat the Jets 24-17.  And last week they crushed the Panthers 33-10 at home and held them to just 198 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score.  He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.  And last week he went 27-of-31 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown without a pick against a very good Carolina defense.  That's 81% completions for Tua over the last three weeks.  Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward.  

Now they take on the Giants, who have about as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now.  It got even worse with QB Daniel Jones ruled out this week, so Mike Glennon will get the start in his place.  They will also be without WR's Sterling Shepard and Kedarius Toney with several other key players either ruled out or questionable.  They have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL.

Miami has been blitzing a ton in recent weeks and trusting their lockdown secondary, which has been the key to their turnaround defensively.  The statue, Glennon, is going to be under duress all game, and he doesn't have the healthy playmakers around him to make the Dolphins pay for blitzing.  They will continue their recent surge with a 5th straight win and cover in blowout fashion over the short-handed Giants on Sunday.  They will be up against a shaky New York offense that has managed just 264, 215 and 245 total yards in the three weeks, respectively.

The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning two of their last three games.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50

This game definitely sets up to be a shootout.  I don't think it will be as high scoring as the first meeting when the Bucs won 48-25 for 73 combined points.  There won't be as many defensive touchdowns.  But we just need the OVER 50 here, and that shouldn't be a problem.

The Bucs are decimated in the secondary right now, which will allow Matt Ryan to have a big game, especially since he has a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back to get the ball to.  Patterson has been almost as important a player to his team as any player in the NFL this season that's a non-quarterback.  It's a Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.

The Bucs got Gronk back on offense and are hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  They followed up a 30-point performance against the Giants with 38 points against the Colts last week.  They should easily get to 30 or more here, and I think the Falcons are good for at least 20 while trying to pay catch up against a soft Bucs secondary.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  They have combined for 50 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  The Bucs are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 games vs. division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Bengals OVER 49

These are two of the better offenses in the NFL and they should have no problem combining to top 49 points in this game Sunday.  It will be sunny with temperatures in the 40's in Cincinnati on Sunday with light winds under 10 MPH.  The weather will make for perfect scoring conditions in this matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Bengals are scoring 28.1 points per game this season.  Joe Burrow is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,835 yards with a 22-to-12 TD/INT ratio this season.  Joe Mixon has rushed for 924 yards and 11 touchdowns and should have a huge game on the ground against a Chargers defense that is the worst in the NFL against the run.  They give up 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, and 26.6 points per game overall.

The Chargers are scoring 24.8 points per game this season and averaging 383.8 yards per game.  Justin Herbert is completing 66% of his passes for 3,230 yards with a 24-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Austin Ekeler has rushed for 604 yards and has 473 receiving yards with 14 combined touchdowns.  The Bengals have good defensive numbers, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing offenses.  Their defense isn't as good as the numbers would suggest.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bengals last eight games as home favorites.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Look for a shootout as Burrow and Herbert try and match each other score for score in this one.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons +11

Cordarrelle Patterson has meant everything to this Atlanta offense this season.  He has 411 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 41 receptions for 500 yards and five scores.  With Calvin Ridley out, his presence on the field is even bigger.  Their offense has been good with him, but without him it has been dreadful.

The Falcons are going to want revenge from a 25-48 road loss to the Bucs as 13-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was much closer than the final score showed as it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter before two straight pick-6's from Matt Ryan to blow it open.  That's unlikely to happen again, and I like the Falcons' chances of matching Tom Brady and company score for score in this one to stay within this massive 11-point spread.

The Falcons will never be out of this game because they will be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.  The Bucs give up 67.7% completions on the season and their secondary is their weakness.

Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season with its three wins coming by 6 of Philadelphia, by 2 of New England and by 7 over Indianapolis.  So the Bucs haven't blown anyone out on the road this year.  They were fortunate to beat the Colts last week, who handed that game away by committing five turnovers in a 31-38 defeat.

Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after playing a game where 60 points or more were scored.  The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games and have been great at playing the role of spoiler down the stretch in recent years.  But they are still 5-6 this season and very much alive for the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans +10

This is a terrible spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  After crushing the Bills on the road, they came back home and blew a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in a 38-31 shootout defeat.  That loss will have taken a lot out of them, and now this is a sandwich spot with bigger games on deck against the Patriots and Cardinals.  They will be overlooking the Texans.

We saw what happens when a team overlooks Tyrod Taylor and the Texans two weeks ago.  They went into Tennessee and won outright as 10-point dogs.  And after coming back home and losing to the Jets, we are getting great value on the Texans again this week as double-digit home underdogs.  They will get up for this game against a division opponent just as they did for the Titans two weeks ago.

This Houston defense is improving, and the offense is much better with Taylor, who has been a covering machine throughout his career.  The Texans are allowing just 17.0 points per game in their last three games while forcing 11 turnovers.  They have not quit on that side of the ball.  Their offense can make enough plays with Taylor to keep this game close, too.

Indianapolis beat Houston 31-3 at home in their first meeting, making this a revenge game for the Texans and adding to their motivation.  But that game was with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans, and it was much closer than the final score showed.  Indianapolis only outgained Houston by 35 yards in that contest.  But the Texans beat themselves by being -3 in turnovers and failing to score on several red zone trips.  Taylor won't make the same mistakes that Mills did.

Houston is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  The Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games following a home loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns last night.  They are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us tonight, and I think that's asking too much.

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an 8-point home win over Boston, a 17-point home win over Washington and a 31-point road win at Portland all outright as underdogs.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Spurs are 13-3 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  It's time to 'sell high' on the tired Warriors tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls have gotten healthy with Nikola Vucevic back and are starting to play up to their potential again.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the Heat by 3.  They beat the Magic by 35 on the road, the Hornets by 14 at home and the Knicks by 4 on the road.

While the Bulls are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, the Nets are tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, who were without Karl-Anthony Towns.  They are already without Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving, so they are short-handed.  Kevin Durant played 37 minutes, James Harden 35 and Lamarcus Aldridge 34 last night.

Chicago already crushed Brooklyn 118-95 at home in their first and only meeting this season.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Alabama/Gonzaga ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +9.5

Alabama is really getting disrespected here.  The Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the country, and oddsmakers are asking Gonzaga to win by double-digits Saturday to beat us.  That's asking too much.

Gonzaga has shown vulnerabilities in its last two games.  They lost outright to Duke as 9-point favorites, then came back with just a 9-point win over Tarleton State as 31-point favorites.  Now they are up against an Alabama team that definitely has some of the best guards in the country that will be hard to deal with.

Alabama is 6-1 this season with a 4-point loss to Iona in upset fashion.  But the other six games have been very impressive in going 5-1 ATS in those six games.  That includes a 32-point win over Miami, a 9-point win over a good Drake team, a 16-point win over a good South Dakota State team, a 27-point win over a good Oakland team and a 29-point win over a quality Louisiana Tech team.  Those aren't big names, but they are some of the better teams in their mid-major conferences.

Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 40 or more boards per game.  Nate Oats is 11-2 ATS when the total is 160 or higher as the coach of Alabama.  Mark Few is 1-8 ATS after two straight games forcing 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga.  Take Alabama Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2

Saint Louis is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Memphis.  They brought back almost everyone from last year and a ton of talent for Travis Ford.  And they have impressive road wins over Stephen F. Austin and Boise State in their last two games coming in.

UAB is getting way too much respect after opening 6-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS against a soft schedule.  They lost to the two best teams they faced in South Carolina and San Francisco, neither of which are as good as Saint Louis.  And the six wins have come against suspect competition as they have been a double-digit favorite in all six.

Saint Louis has a huge home-court advantage and is 4-0 at home this season while winning by 41.8 points per game.  The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference home games.  Saint Louis is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games overall.  Take Saint Louis Saturday.

15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game.  Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff.  Lose and they don't.  That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity.  They just need to win.

Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech.  The Cougars have been flying under the radar.  And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point.  They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose.  Look for one of their best performances of the season.

These teams aren't that far off statistically.  Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game.  Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game.  This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance.

Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season.  He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.  Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio.

Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game.  The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Houston Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Colorado State -4

Colorado State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this season from a team that barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are on a mission to get to the big dance this year, and a win over St. Mary's would go a long way.

The Rams have handled their business thus far in their 8-0 start that has seen them outscore opponents by 18.1 points per game.  They beat Creighton by 14 and Oral Roberts by 29, two NCAA Tournament teams from last year.  They are coming off a 31-point win over Arkansas-Little Rock and have had the last two days off.  

St. Mary's will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days after a narrow win at Utah State, 60-58 on Thursday.  Playing in altitude here will be tough for the Gaels.  It will also be their 6th game in 13 days.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53

Talk about familiarity.  Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years.  This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season.  

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings.  Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season.  While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed.  They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers.  That's not going to happen again.

Both teams live off running the football and playing defense.  Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts.  Louisiana allows just 18.5 points  per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better.  The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +10

SIU-Edwardsville is just 2-5 SU this season but all five losses were decided by 13 points or less and they have faced some stiff competition.  They only lost by 11 at Marquette as 21-point dogs, upset Youngstown State on the road as 5-point dogs and only lost at Creighton by 5 as 21-point dogs.

Now SIU-Edwardsville is catching 10 points against a down Bradley team that is just 3-5 this season with two wins over Missouri S&T and Maine.  They lost by 16 to South Dakota State, by 12 to Howard as 12.5-point favorites, by 3 to Brown as 3.5-point favorites and by 8 to Duquesne as 2-point dogs.  They did pull the upset over Northern Iowa in their MVC opener last time out by 2, but that makes this a letdown spot for them today.

SIU-Edwardsville is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The Braves are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Bradley is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with SIU-Edwardsville Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3

It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season.  They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine.  That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer.

The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average.  They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game.  They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards.

Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history.  The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan.  That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting.

The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting.  It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting.  The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team.

Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game.  Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* Suns/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The Suns and Warriors just played on Tuesday with the Suns winning 104-96 for 200 combined points.  Now they play again just three days later here Friday, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Suns are going to be severely hampered on offense now with the loss of leading scorer, Devin Booker.  He got hurt against the Warriors in the first half of that game and missed last game against Detroit.  He will be out again tonight, and with points going to be hard to come by for the Suns, they are going to have to rely on their defense.

Speaking of defense, these are the top two defensive teams in the NBA, which explains why they have the two best records in the NBA.  The Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Suns rank 2nd, allowing 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

The Warriors are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games after a combined score of 205 points or less.  Golden State is 32-13 UNDER In its last 45 games after playing its last game on the road.  The Warriors are 8-0 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Golden State is 8-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging at least 23 assists per game this season.  The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Utah has never won a Pac-12 Championship.  They have won the Pac-12 South now three of the last four years.  But they came up shot in their two title games to Washington in 2018 and Oregon in 2019.  The Utes will be highly motivated to hand Kyle Whittingham his first Pac-12 Championship this weekend.

That's why I'm not worried about any type of letdown that would occur from having already beaten Oregon 38-7 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  It will be more of the same here as Utah shuts down the Oregon rushing attack, forcing the inaccurate Anthony Brown to try and beat them through the air.

In that first meeting, Utah held Oregon to just 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 294 total yards overall.  The Utes did what they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 208 yards and gaining 386 total yards for the game.  They played a vanilla second half after taking a 28-0 lead or they could have won by more.

This Utah team has been a different animal since Cam Rising took over at quarterback.  They have won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 9 points or more.  They have outgained seven of those nine opponents with the only exceptions being -7 against USC and -13 against Oregon State.  

Rising has a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio through the air, but his dual-threat ability has been what makes him tough to tame.  He has rushed for 346 yards and five scores while averaging 6.4 per carry.  In all honesty, these teams are pretty even outside of quarterback play.  Their season-long stats are about the same offensively with Utah having the slight edge on defense.  Rising over Brown, the edges on defense and special teams, and Whittingham over Cristobal makes Utah an easy choice as only a 2.5-point favorite.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. teams that complete 62% of their passes or better.  The Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games, and 34-13 ATS in their last 47 after allowing 125 or less in three straight.  The Ducks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* 76ers/Hawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They played the majority of those games without Joel Embiid.  But they are playing better with him back of late, and I look for them to upset the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But injuries have hit the Hawks of late as they are without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic and could be without Cam Reddish, who is questionable.

Every time the 76ers see the Hawks this season they are going to want revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by Atlanta last year.  That showed in their 122-94 home win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  And now they will go on the road and exact some more revenge on the Hawks with an outright victory.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They have lost three straight with a blowout loss to the Bucks and two tough losses to the Hawks and Timberwolves by a combined 5 points.  They will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they won't be taking the short-handed Miami Heat lightly because of it.

Miami is without its two best players in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.  That explains their ugly losses in their last two games with a 111-120 home loss as 3-point favorites against the Nuggets followed by an 85-111 home loss to the Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites.  They just aren't a very good team without these two.

The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Indiana is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -8

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off three straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV and Notre Dame.  But at just 2-5 ATS this season, this is a good time to 'buy low' on them tonight in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers.

Rutgers is just 4-3 SU & 1-5-1 ATS this season.  It's clearly a rebuilding year for the Scarlet Knights, who lost a lot in the offseason.  They have so many concerning results.  They lost outright as favorites to DePaul (-2.5), Lafayette (-19) and UMass (-1.5).  They struggled to beat Lehigh by 3, Merrimack by 13 and New Jersey Tech by 14.  This clearly isn't a very good team, and this will be by far their toughest test of the season after playing an easy early schedule.

Illinois is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  This one has double-digit blowout written all over it folks.  Roll with Illinois Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +13

You're paying a tax tonight to back the Phoenix Suns due to their 17-game winning streak.  If there was ever going to be a letdown spot, this is the one because they are coming off a huge National TV win over Golden State on Tuesday, and now they have the Warriors on deck tomorrow night.

The Suns will be trying to conserve their energy in this game against the Pistons, especially since they just lost their best player in Devin Booker to injury against the Warriors last time out.  They are now short-handed and there's no way they should be 13-point favorites without Booker.

While it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns, it's also a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost seven straight coming in, but five of them came by 11 points or fewer against some very good competition.  The Pistons are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have been consistently catching too many points, including tonight.

Detroit is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following three or more consecutive losses.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Pistons are 26-9 ATS in the last 35 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5

The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four.  They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.

The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills.

This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo.  I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well.

Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation.  They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week.  They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 215

The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be without JA Morant for the foreseeable future.  They are definitely an UNDER team without him.  That showed last time out in their 98-91 win over the Raptors for 189 combined points.  And this total has been set way too high tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are a tired team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss to Houston last night.  I think that fatigue hurts them more on offense than defense.  The Thunder are tied for last in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season.  They are in the middle of the pack (15th) in defensive efficiency and have been underrated on that end.

The UNDER is 37-18 in Thunder last 55 road games.  The UNDER is 66-29-1 in Thunder last 96 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 22-9 in Grizzlies last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Youngstown State +5.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has no business being a 5.5-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight, let alone a favorite at all.  The Panthers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season despite playing a very easy schedule.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee opened with a win over North Dakota.  They have since lost five straight despite being favorite in three of them.  They lost by 6 to Eastern Kentucky as 5-point home favorites, by 36 to Florida as 16.5-point road dogs, by 14 to Bowling Green as 2.5-point neutral court favorites, by 13 to Yale as 7-point neutral court underdogs and by 4 to Alcorn State as 10-point home favorites.

Youngstown State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS.  They were competitive in all three losses.  They covered in a 16-point loss at Penn State as 17-point dogs.  They only lost toby 3 to SIU-Edwardsville and by 5 to Niagara, two teams that are underrated in my book.

The Penguins are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Youngstown State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Milwaukee is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Panthers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games as home favorites.  Milwaukee is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Youngstown State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Providence +3

Texas Tech is 6-0 this season and has yet to play a true road games.  The Red Raiders have played the 357th-ranked schedule in the country with their six wins coming against North Florida, Grambling, Prairie View A&M, Incarnate Word, Nebraska-Omaha and Lamar.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Red Raiders after this start against this soft schedule.  Now they will be playing their first true road games against a Providence team that is battle-tested and has gotten through the 154th-ranked schedule at 6-1.  That includes upset road wins over Wisconsin on the road and Northwestern on a neutral with their lone loss coming to Virginia on a neutral.

Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 60 points or less.  Texas Tech is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Providence Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -4

Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  But they had some bad losses early when they were injured.  Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas as 12.5-point dogs.  The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season.

But Northern Iowa played up to its potential last time out, upsetting previously unbeaten and ranked St. Bonaventure 90-80 on the road as 10-point dogs.  They will be playing just their 2nd game since November 17th tonight, so they are rested, fully healthy and ready for this Missouri Valley opener against Bradley.

The Braves are way down this season.  They are just 2-5 SU & 2-4 ATS with their two wins coming against Missouri S&T and Maine.  They have losses to Howard by 12 as 12.5-point favorites, South Dakota State by 16 as 9-point dogs, Brown by 3 as 3.5-point favorites and Duquesne by 8 as 2-point dogs.  They won't be able to hang with a team the caliber of the Panthers tonight.

Bradley is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Braves are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +7.5

Wichita State is 6-1 this season with its only loss to Arizona by 4 points as 9.5-point dogs.  That's a very good Arizona team.  They are battle-tested also having road wins over Missouri and UNLV.  And now they are catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The Cowboys are also 6-1 but getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have narrow wins over NC State by 6 and Oral Roberts by 1.  They also have an upset loss to Oakland as a 17-point favorite.  They have played a much softer schedule, too.  The Cowboys have no business laying this big of a number to the Shockers tonight.

Wichita State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  The Shockers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Wichita State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Wichita State Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four to the Lakers, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Look for them to get back in the win column here as this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Pacers as a PK at home against the Atlanta Hawks.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who have gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But most of that success has come at home.  The Hawks are just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS on the road this season.  And they are without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic tonight and could be without Cam Reddish, who is questionable.

Atlanta is 1-9 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 points per game or fewer this season.  The Hawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 215.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been a great offensive team since De'Angelo Russell returned to the lineup.  They have scored 100 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games.  They have averaged 116.0 points per game in their last seven games with Russell.

Washington has scored at least 99 points or more in six straight.  But the Wizards have struggled on the other end, allowing 99 points or more in seven straight.  Look for a shootout between these two teams tonight, especially when you consider their recent head-to-head history.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 227 or more points at the end of regulation in all seven.  The Timberwolves and Wizards have averaged 242.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 27 points more than tonight's posted total of 215.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Kings UNDER 227.5

The Lakers and Kings just played on Friday in a 141-137 (OT) victory in triple-overtime by the Kings.  That game was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for just 200 combined points.  And now we are getting a massive 227.5-point total in the rematch.

There's clearly value with the UNDER tonight.  Plus, these teams are obviously very familiar with one another after playing just a few days ago, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Look for this game to come well short of this 227.5-point total at the end of regulation tonight.

The Lakers are 27-13 UNDER in their last 40 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Kings are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games after playing their last game on the road.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Lakers last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 27-11-1 in Kings last 39 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Kings last 51 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons are playing much better basketball here of late now that they are getting healthy and forming some chemistry.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite a brutal schedule.  They lost by 3 to the Warriors, by 8 to the Heat, by 21 to the Bucks, by 11 to the Clippers and by 4 to the Lakers.

Now they are catching 9.5 points against a struggling Portland Trail Blazers team and actually take a big step down in class here.  Asking the Blazers to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking a lot.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, losing by 4 to the Kings, by 15 to the Warriors and by 22 to the Jazz.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in Utah last night as well.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following four or more consecutive losses.  The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Detroit is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.