20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 198

After going over the total in three of four games to open this series, the Hawks and Wizards played in a very low scoring Game 5 that saw just 163 combined points.  I look for Game 6 to follow suit in this elimination game that will be played with high defensive intensity.

The longer a series goes on, the lower-scoring it usually gets because teams are so familiar with one another.  Yes, John Wall is back to lead the Wizards' offense, but he is only a shell of himself while playing with a fractured hand.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 59-30 (66.3%) since 1996.

Atlanta is 12-1 to the UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.  The Hawks are 17-5 to the UNDER when leading in a playoff series since 1996.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight Friday games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6.  I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers.

Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively.  They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. 

The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -157

I don't normally lay this much juice in baseball.  However, there are certain situations where it is warranted, and I believe this is one of them.  The Reds have such a huge advantage on the mound over the Giants in this one.

Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young contender year in and year out.  He has gone 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in seven starts, so 2015 has been no exception.  Cueto has been virtually untouchable at home, going 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.591 WHIP in three starts, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 22 innings.

What really excites me is the head-to-head matchup.  Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.96 RA and 0.982 WHIP in six career starts against San Francisco.  Tim Lincecum is 0-4 with a 9.79 ERA and 1.780 WHIP in six career starts against Cincinnati.  Lincecum has allowed a combined 16 earned runs over 8 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.

The Reds are 37-14 in Cueto's last 51 home starts.  Cincinnati is 48-17 in Cueto's last 65 starts with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.  The Reds are 51-19 in Cueto's last 70 starts as a favorite.  The Giants are 0-9 in Lincecum's last nine road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Lincecum's last six road starts.  The Giants are 0-5 in Lincecum's last five starts as a road dog.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Take the Reds Thursday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage.  I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2.

The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury.  The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer.

Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose.  They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points.  They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5.  In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here.

Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season.  The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -102

The New York Yankees are simply overvalued due to their hot 21-13 start to the season.  They should not be the favorites today against the Tampa Bay Rays (18-16), who clearly have the edge on the mound in this one.

Tampa Bay will be giving the ball to Nate Karns, who is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the game with 38 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings.  Karns also sports a 2.79 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in two starts against the Yankees in 2015.

Adam Warren gets the ball for New York.  He has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in six starts.  Warren has been at his worst on the road with a 7.04 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three starts away from home.  Warren has posted a 4.65 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in two starts against Tampa Bay this season.

The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 in its last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 8-3 in their last 11 home games overall.  Take the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -125

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as small home favorites to the Minnesota Twins Tuesday.  The Twins are off to a surprising 18-14 start this season, but they are also overvalued now as a result.

Detroit gives the ball to Alfredo Simon, who has been dominant in the early going.  Simon is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two home starts.  In his lone career start against Minnesota, Simon allowed one earned run over eight innings of an 8-1 victory.

Kyle Gibson has pitched tremendously at home for Minnesota this season, but it has been a different story on the road.  Gibson is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in three road starts in 2015.  Plus, Gibson hates facing the Tigers, as he's 2-4 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.858 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Minnesota is 16-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons.  Simon is 18-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Twins are 0-6 in Gibson's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Tigers Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series.  They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight.

I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series.  Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%.  Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.  Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -144

The Washington Nationals are absolutely rolling right now.  They have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to get to 17-15 on the season and to play up to their potential for the first time all year.  I look for them to add another one in the win column Monday.

Washington sends ace Max Scherzer to the mound tonight.  The right-hander is dominating the National League as expected, going 2-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.937 WHIP with 49 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings.  In his lone career start against Arizona, Scherzer allowed one earned run over 7 innings of a 3-1 victory.

Josh Collmenter is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  While he's one of Arizona's best starters, that really isn't saying much.  Collmenter has gone 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in six starts this season.  He'll be up against a Washington team that has scored 5 or more runs in four straight games coming in.

The Diamondbacks are 16-39 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 15-36 in its last 51 games following a win.  The Diamondbacks are 12-39 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Arizona is 18-42 in its last 60 games as an underdog.  The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Collmenter's last 6 starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4.  They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well.

Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4.  Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose.  Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996.

The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta.  Take the Hawks in Game 4.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Clippers UNDER 217.5

The Clippers and Rockets have gone OVER the total in all three games to open this series.  They've combined for 218, 224 and 223 points.  As a result, the oddsmakers have been forced to set the highest total they have yet this series in Game 4.

That has provided us with a ton of line value to swoop in and back the UNDER tonight.  This 217.5-point total is 5.5 points more than the 212-point Game 1 total.  That fact alone allows you to see that there is value with this UNDER in Game 4.

The defensive intensity in this game will be more than it has been at any other point in the series.  The Rockets are looking at this game like a must-win, while the Clippers realize they can grab a hold of the series with a win to go up 3-1.  I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively as a result.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive overs are 66-29 (69.5%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 41-9 (82%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +117

The Cincinnati Reds should not be underdogs to the Chicago White Sox today in the finale of this interleague series.  They have the better starter on the mound and the better lineup to boot.

Michael Lorenzen is a little-known starter, which is why he gets no respect.  Lorenzen is off to a great start this season, going 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts.  He gave up just one earned run over six innings of a 7-1 victory at Pittsburgh last time out.

John Danks has completely lost it and hasn't been struggling for three years now.  The left-hander is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.540 WHIP over five starts in 2015.  His last start was cut short after he allowed 7 runs, 3 earned, in 2 1/3 innings against the Twins.

The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.  Chicago is 4-11 in Danks' last 15 starts.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Danks' last 7 starts as a favorite.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Danks' last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -109

The Los Angeles Angels should be much heavier home favorites over the Houston Astros tonight.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price here.  You'll rarely get the opportunity to back them as this small of home favorites.

Los Angeles is undervalued right now due to its mediocre 14-16 start to the season.  Meanwhile, Houston is overvalued due to leading the AL West with a 19-11 record.  Well, the Astros have come back down to reality, going 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 8 runs in the process.

Matt Shoemaker is coming off his best start of the season.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings while striking out 10.  All three runs came on solo homers as he only allowed four hits the entire game.  Shoemaker got the win in his lone career starts against Houston last year, giving up 2 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-2 victory.

Dallas Keuchel sports a 4.47 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in eight career starts against Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-2 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Los Angeles is 11-2 in Shoemaker's last 13 starts vs. AL West opponents.  The Astros are 37-77 in their last 114 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Angels Saturday.

20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards.  They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series.

Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss.  It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory.  I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season.

As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall.  Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points.  But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -114

The San Diego Padres should be much bigger favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight with the edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage of this gift from the oddsmakers Friday.  The Padres will be motivated following an 11-0 loss yesterday in Game 1 of this series.

James Shields has made a smooth transition to the National League.  The right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has struck out a whopping 48 batters in 36 1/3 innings.

Jeremy Hellickson doesn't even belong as a starting pitcher in the big leagues.  He is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two home starts.  Hellickson is also 0-1 with a 7.42 ERA in two career starts against San Diego.

Shields is 14-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons.  Shields is 14-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 5-22 (-18.8 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.  Hellickson is 0-9 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Padres Friday.

20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love.  They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series.

The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense."

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems.  It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more.  These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500.  This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs.  Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.

20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers +155

Great value here on the Texas Rangers, who are playing their best baseball of the season coming in.  They have gone 3-0 in their last three games while outscoring the AL West-leading Houston Astros 20-5 in the process.  Their bats have really gotten going in their last two games as they've combined for 18 runs.

With the way Nick Martinez has been pitching in the early going, he has no business being this big of an underdog tonight folks.  Martinez is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.84 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five starts, allowing just 3 earned runs over 32 innings of work.

Chris Archer is deservedly getting some respect here, but it's too much.  He's 3-3 with a 1.64 ERA in six starts this season, but he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Baltimore.  Archer can't be expected to get much run support considering the Rays are hitting .234 and scoring 3.6 runs per game.

Tampa Bay is 1-7 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in home games after seven or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Rays are 3-8 in Archer's last 11 home starts.  The Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas is 5-0 in Martinez's last five starts.  Bet the Rangers Thursday.

15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +145

The Cincinnati Reds have won six of their last nine games overall to improve to 14-13 on the season.  The Pittsburgh Pirates come in struggling mightily, having lost five straight while scoring a combined 5 runs in those five contests.

It won't get any easier for the Pirates today against Anthony Desclafini, who is 2-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in five starts this season for the Reds.  He has given up just 7 earned runs and 29 base runners over 31 innings of work.

A.J. Burnett should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He is off to a fluky start where he has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in five outings, but he's nowhere near that caliber of a pitcher and won't live up to those numbers going forward.

Pittsburgh is 0-7 (-8.4 Units) against the money line with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent this season.  Burnett is 10-24 (-12.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 26-56 in their last 82 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Reds Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets came out flat in Game 1.  They thought they could just show up and win against a Clippers team that was playing without its best player in Chris Paul.  The Rockets won't make the same mistake again.  Look for them to come out with their most inspired effort of the season in Game 2.

Paul is expected to sit again as he's listed as doubtful.  It's a smart move by Doc Rivers, who has to be satisfied with getting home-court advantage after stealing Game 1.  The Clippers aren't about to play as well as they did without Paul again.

This play fits into one of my favorite playoff systems.  It's part of the zig-zag theory where you play on the team that lost the last game.  This system tells us to play on a home favorite that lost the last game by 10 points or more with a winning percentage from .600 to .750 against a team with better than a .500 record.  This system is 55-30-2 (64.7%) ATS in its last 87 tries.

Los Angeles is 4-12 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games this season.  Houston 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite this year.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will take part in a slug fest tonight.  These are two of the better offensive teams in baseball as the Blue Jays are putting up 5.4 runs per game, while the Yankees are scoring 4.9 runs per game.

These two lineups will be up against two over-the-hill starters that are way past their primes.  Both teams have been feasting on left-handers.  The Yankees are scoring 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters, while the Blue Jays are putting up 5.7 per game against southpaws.

C.C. Sabathia has been terrible over the last three seasons.  He is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in five starts in 2015.  He has given up 8 earned runs over 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays for a 6.17 ERA.

Mark Buehrle is struggling mightily this year.  He has gone 3-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in five starts.  The left-hander is 1-14 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 21 career starts against New York.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 15 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 9-1 in Buehrle's last 10 home starts.  The OVER is 14-3 in Buehrle's last 17 starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5.  The OVER is 10-1 in Yankees last 11 during Game 3 of a series.  The OVER is 35-14-2 in Sabathia's last 51 starts during Game 3 of a series.  The OVER is 5-0 in Buehrle's last five starts vs. New York.  The OVER is 21-7-2 in Toby Basner's last 30 games behind home plate.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego Padres -119

The San Diego Padres will be motivated to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to the Giants and ace Madison Bumgarner yesterday.  Now, the Padres are the team with the massive edge on the mound in this one.

Andrew Cashner is one of the most underrated starters in the league.  He has posted a 2.61 ERA with 36 strikeouts over 31 innings in five starts this season.  Cashner sports a 4.25 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in five career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong has struggled to remain in the rotation over the last couple years.  That's the case again in 2015 as he's 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 2.021 WHIP over three starts and two relief appearances.  He has already allowed 8 homers in 19 1/3 innings.  Vogelsong is 4-5 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in 10 career starts against San Diego.

The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  San Diego is 27-12 in its last 39 games as a favorite.  The Padres are 4-0 in Cashner's last four starts with 5 days of rest.  The Giants are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Padres Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -6

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs up to this point.  They won home-court advantage by stealing Game 1, and now I expect them to let up a little, while Atlanta puts the foot on the gas in Game 2 in essentially a must-win game.

The Hawks uncharacteristically missed a ton of wide open shots that they normally make in Game 1, yet they still almost won.  They shot just 37.8% from the field and lost 98-104.  As good as this team is at shooting the ball, I expect a much sharper performance in Game 2, which will lead to a win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.

Washington has some serious injury issues right now.  Bradley Beal severely sprained his ankle in Game 1, and while he's expected to play through the pain in Game 2, he clearly won't be effective.  John Wall also suffered a hand injury from a hard fall to the floor.  If this was the regular season, both players would likely be out.  Give them credit for gutting it out, but the Wizards simply aren't the same team without Wall and Beal at 100%.

Washington is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They are coming back to win 103.8 to 95.4 on average in this spot.  Bet the Hawks in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 1 No-Brainer on UNDER 212

With Chris Paul likely out for the Clippers, I look for them to be a little lost offensively.  Their offense only goes as he goes.  That's a big reason why I'm taking the UNDER in this Game 1 Monday.

Another reason is how the season series has played out.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings dating back to last year.

The Clippers and Rockets have combined for 198, 215, 205 and 187 points in their four meetings this season.  That's an average of 201.3 points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 212.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value on the run line today with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the worst team in baseball in the Milwaukee Brewers and the struggling Kyle Lohse.

The 2014 NL Cy Young and MVP winner isn't off to the greatest start in 2015, but he is still 1-2 with a respectable 3.73 ERA, including 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

Lohse has been brutal in the early going.  He has gone 1-4 with a 7.28 ERA through five starts.  Lohse has allowed 8 homers and 24 earned runs over 29 2/3 innings this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 20-5 against the run line (+15.7 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons.  Kershaw is 13-2 against the run line (+11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Los Angeles is 22-4 against the run line (+19.2 Units) in road games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-12 against the run line (-13.4 Units) in night games this season.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* Yankees/Red Sox AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -135

The Boston Red Sox are going to be highly motivated for a victory against their hated AL East rivals in the New York Yankees tonight.  Boston has lost the first two games of this series, and I'm banking on them not getting swept at home.

I like what I've seen from Joe Kelly, who has just a mediocre 4.94 ERA in spite of a superb 1.098 WHIP in four starts this season.  Kelly has never lost to the Yankees, going 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Adam Warren is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in four starts in 2015 for the Yankees.  Warren has been at his worst on the road, posting a 7.45 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts away from home.

Kelly is 17-8 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  The Yankees are 16-33 in their last 49 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Boston is 6-1 in Kelly's last seven starts.  The Red Sox are 4-0 in Kelly's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

15* Wizards/Hawks Game 1 Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5

The Washington Wizards showed me enough in their first series to know that they are real contenders in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  I look for them to give the Hawks a run for their money tonight and to likely steal Game 1.

The Wizards' four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors was rarely even close as all four games they won by 7 or more points.  The Atlanta Hawks were much more vulnerable in their series, needing six games to get by eighth-seeded Brooklyn with three of their wins going down to the wire.

Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road playoff games.  Atlanta is 4-18 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.  Washington is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -129

The San Diego Padres are showing solid value as small home favorites to the Colorado Rockies Saturday.  There hasn't been a worse road team in MLB over the past two seasons than Colorado.

Like so many other San Diego pitchers before him, Brandon Morrow has revived his career with the Padres.  He's 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in four starts in 2015.

Jorge De La Rosa has been a great pitcher to back at home, but it's been a different story on the road. In 2015, he is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two starts.  De La Rosa has also posted a 4.98 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in 20 career starts against San Diego.

De La Rosa has faced the Padres once in 2015.  He gave up 9 runs, 7 earned, in 2 innings of a 3-14 loss on April 20th.  The Rockies are 13-45 in their last 58 road games.  Colorado is 11-44 in its last 55 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Padres Saturday.

20* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 204

Games in the playoffs tend to get lower scoring as the series goes on.  The intensity picks up, and teams become more familiar with one another.  With everything on the line in a Game 7, the defensive intensity is magnified even more, and the rim becomes smaller for shooters.

These teams combined for 198 points in Game 6.  That was the second-lowest scoring game of the series as they combined for 199 in Game 1.  Game 7 will be the lowest-scoring game yet.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Nets Game 6 Line Mistake on Atlanta -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have toyed around with the Brooklyn Nets for long enough.  This series ends tonight and I'll back the Hawks laying a small number on the road.

The Hawks swept the Nets during the regular season, but this has been a much feistier series.  The Nets are getting some respect from the books because they have hung around, but that all changes tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.  That's the only trend that backs the Hawks, but tonight they show out like they are champs in the East.  It's time to separate themselves from the pack.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals +100

I've been a huge Washington backer here the last few days.  I'm riding them again tonight because they are hitting the cover off the ball.

The Nationals have scored 34 combined runs the past three days while going 3-0.  While I don't expect them to put up another big number today, what they will put up will be enough to win this game.

They send the AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer to the mound, and he's been unstoppable again.  Scherzer has posted a 1.26 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in four starts in 2015.  Scherzer is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in four career starts against New York.

Washington is 31-10 (+17.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  Scherzer is  29-7 (+18.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  Take Washington Friday.

20* Clippers/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The road team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.  I don't expect the Clippers to go out without a fight tonight.  They have arguably been the better team in this series as they've lost a couple nail-biters in Game 2 and Game 5.

Los Angeles came up big with a 114-105 road win at San Antonio in Game 4.  It was essentially playing for its season in that game, and it is playing for its season tonight as well.  This core group of players has been together long enough to handle this kind of pressure-packed situation.

The Clippers have actually been playing their best basketball on the road here of late.  In fact, they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games overall.  They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Doc Rivers will rally the troops tonight and have them coming back with an inspired effort.  Bet the Clippers in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -104

The Washington Nationals are back on track with two straight wins thanks to an offense that has put up a combined 26 runs in back-to-back wins over the Braves.  Now, they take dead aim at the NL East-leading New York Mets tonight.

Even though Stephen Strasburg has struggled a bit in the early going, I still believe the Nationals have the edge on the mound tonight.  Strasburg owns the Mets, going 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Jacob DeGromm is a solid second-year starter, but he's not on Strasburg's level.  DeGrom has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in two career starts against them.  The Mets went 0-2 in those two contests.

The Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Speaking of owning the Mets, Washington is 46-17 in its last 63 meetings with New York.  It is 16-4 in 20 visits to New York over the last three seasons.  Washington is 4-1 in Strasburg's last five road starts vs. New York.  Take the Nationals Thursday.

20* Blazers/Grizzlies Game 5 No-Brainer on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers got a huge break when Memphis point guard Mike Conley suffered a facial fracture in Game 3.  His defense on Damian Lillard in the first three games was as big a reason as any that the Grizzlies were up 3-0.

Without Conley in Game 4, the Blazers took advantage.  They won 99-92 behind a huge game from Lillard.  After scoring just 32 total points on 10-of-37 shooting in his first two games at Memphis, Lillard scored 22 points with nine assists in Game 3, and then a game-high 32 points in the Game 4 win.

I really think that the Blazers believe they can get back into this series now, and I look for them to not only to cover this 6-point spread at Memphis in Game 5, but to likely win this game outright.  C.J. McCollum has been huge too, scoring 44 points in the past two games.

Memphis is 19-42 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  This series is about to get interesting with the Blazers likely to take this game tonight.  Bet Portland in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 8.5

The Boston Red Sox have been the biggest OVER team in the league to this point.  The are 15-6 OVER in 21 games this year as they are scoring 5.2 runs and giving up 5.6 runs per game.  Toronto is 12-8-1 OVER in all games, scoring 5.5 runs and giving up 5.2 runs per game.

The scoring should continue tonight with Rick Porcello and R.A. Dickey on the mound.  Dickey has gone 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.375 WHIP through four starts this season, while Porcello has gone 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.440 WHIP through four starts.

Porcello has really struggled against Toronto, going 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA in seven career starts.  He has allowed 12 earned runs over 18 innings in his last three starts against the Blue Jays.  Dickey is 5-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Blue Jays last 10 road games.  The OVER is 12-4 in Boston's last 16 home games.  The OVER is 14-3 in Red Sox last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 20-7 in Red Sox last 27 games overall.  These teams have combined for 30 runs in the first two games of this series.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers showed a lot of guts by going into San Antonio and winning Game 4 114-105 to keep their season alive.  Now that they've regained home-court advantage, I expect them to hold onto it with a victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers have been playing as well as anyone over the past couple months.  They are now 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and arguably should be up 3-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime.  They are simply the better team this year, and their resiliency shown in Game 4 will give them a lot of confidence going forward.

Los Angeles is 31-12 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game.  San Antonio has been vulnerable on the road this year with a mediocre 23-20 record away from home.  The Clippers have now won four of their last six meetings with the Spurs this season, showing that they are better than the defending champs.

The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 24-13 ATS off two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +103

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory.  They are 7-13 on the season and eight games back in the NL East already.  They have lost six straight coming in.  It's safe to say that they won't be lacking any motivation tonight against the Atlanta Braves.

The reason the Nationals aren't getting respect from the books is because A.J. Cole is making his major league debut.  However, Cole has posted a 2.40 ERA in three starts at Triple-A Syracuse.  He was 13-3 in 25 games between Double-and-Triple-A in 2014, and he posted a 4.22 ERA in four games this spring.

Julio Teheran is off to a shaky start in 2015.  He has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four starts.  Teheran has allowed 9 earned runs over 9 1/3 innings with four homers allowed in his last two starts to the Blue Jays and Mets.

Plays on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL), after two straight losses by 4 runs or more are 43-18 (70.5%, +28.4 units) since 1997.  The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Atlanta is 0-5 in its last five games following a win.  The Braves are 4-12 in their last 16 games as a favorite.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -112

The Miami Marlins could not possibly be more motivated for a win than they will be Tuesday.  They blew a 1-0 lead in the 9th inning to lose 3-1 to the Mets on Monday, falling to 0-5 against their NL East rivals this season.  They are desperate to put an end to this skid and pick up their first win of the season against New York.

I really like their chances with the way they've been playing of late, and with the edge they have on the mound.  Miami has won five of its last six games overall while scoring a combined 33 runs in the process.

David Phelps has been solid in two starts this season, going 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.771 WHIP while allowing just one earned run and nine base runners in 11 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Rafael Montero, who sports a 4.15 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in four relief appearances.  Montero will be making his first start of the season tonight.

Miami is 10-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit over the last two seasons.  New York is 0-6 in Montero's last six starts as an underdog.  The Marlins are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 188

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Chicago.  This is Game 5 of the series, and as a series goes on, the games tend to get lower-scoring with both teams becoming more and more familiar with one another.

This has already been a pretty low-scoring series with all four games seeing 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  They combined for 194 points at the end of regulation in Game 1, but then just 173 in Game 2, 190 in Game 3, and 182 in Game 4.

In fact, each of the last 13 meetings in this series have seen 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 186 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 188 points.

The UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games vs.  a team with a winning percentage from .400 to .490.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -114

The Miami Marlins are going to be out for revenge tonight against the New York Mets.  They were swept in four games by the Mets in their first series this season.  However, they are now playing their best baseball of the season having won five straight while outscoring the opposition 32-6 in the process.

Jarred Cosart continues to be one of the most underrated starters in the game.  The right-hander has gone 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in three starts this season.  He went 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 10 starts for the Marlins last season.

Dillon Gee has struggled in the early going in 2015.  He has gone 0-1 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three starts this season.  I look for the Mets to have a bit of a letdown here following their Subway Series rivalry with the New York Yankees over the weekend, where they lost two out of three.

The Mets are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  New York is 2-5 in Gee's last 7 road starts.  The Marlins are 5-0 in their last five games overall.  Take the Marlins Monday.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -121

The Washington Nationals are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to their five-game losing streak.  They will get back on track against an Atlanta team that is faltering as well having lost five of its last six games overall.

Doug Fister has picked up right where he left off last season.  The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in three starts in 2015.  Fister has never lost to Atlanta, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves.

Eric Stults has faltered a bit in the early going.  He has gone 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts, including 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in two home starts.  Stults is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in three career starts against Washington as well.

Plays on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (WASHINGTON) - with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL), cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games are 89-33 (73%, +44 units) since 1997. 

The Nationals are 7-1 in Fister's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Washington is 20-8 in Fister's last 28 starts.  The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Nationals Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers know that this is a must-win game to avoid falling behind the defending champion Spurs 3-1.  I look for them to give their best effort tonight in Game 4 and likely pull off the upset, though I'll take the points for some added insurance.

There is clearly some value here as the Clippers were only 4.5-point dogs in Game 3, and now 6.5-point dogs in Game 4.  They couldn't have played any worse in Game 3, shooting 34.1% while allowing 52.6% shooting. 

That's not going to happen again.  That performance has also helped create some line value here.  The betting public is big on "what have you done lately", which creates overreactions in lines.  I believe this is a classic overreaction.

Plays on road underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  They have only lost one of their last 19 games by more than 4 points, making for an 18-1 system backing them pertaining to today's 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -111

The Washington Nationals come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have now lost four straight games after last night's 8-0 loss to the Miami Marlins.  It's safe to say they'll be hungry to get a win and avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with the steady Gio Gonzalez on the mound.  Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA in three starts this season.  He owns the Marlins, going 6-2 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Dan Haren is off to a solid start this year for Miami, but he is overvalued as a result.  He is well past his prime and has not performed well in recent years as he continues to get older and lose speed on his fastball.

Haren is 5-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Nationals are 17-4 in their last 21 Sunday games.  Washington is 4-0 in its last four after losing the first 2 games of a series.

The Nationals are 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Washington is 33-13 in Gonzalez's last 46 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last five starts vs. Miami.  Take Washington Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres +109

The San Diego Padres are highly motivated for a victory Saturday as they host the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They have lost three in a row coming in, and they are 1-3 against the rival Dodgers this season.  They will be digging deep to get a win today as a result.

Ian Kennedy went 13-13 with a 3.63 ERA last season.  He will be making his second start of 2015 today after not allowing a run in 2 2/3 innings in his first start before leaving due to injury.  Kennedy has allowed just 4 earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

Brandon McCarthy is getting too much respect here as the favorite.  He is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts this season.  McCarthy went 5-11 with a 4.53 ERA in 2013 and 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA in 2014.  He doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from the oddsmakers.  He has also allowed at least 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against San Diego.

McCarthy is 1-15 (-16.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that he has consistently been overvalued on the road when favored and hasn't been able to live up to expectations.  Meanwhile, Kennedy is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.  Take the Padres Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +7

The Golden State Warriors are 0-3 ATS in this series and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They continue to be overvalued because they are the No. 1 team in the Western Conference and have the best record in the NBA.  Once again, they are overvalued as 7-point favorites in Game 4.

The New Orleans Pelicans are such a young team that they don't know any better.  I would expect an older team to fold in this situation, but the young Pelicans play with a lot of pride, and they don't want to get swept 4-0.  They have proven they can play with Golden State, and they want to show it with a victory in Game 4.

New Orleans played great down the stretch just to get into the postseason, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games like this one is.  It has hung with Golden State in all three games thus far as all three losses came by 10 points or less, including the OT home loss in Game 3.

New Orleans is 28-14 at home this season.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 28-13 ATS as underdogs this season. 

The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are steaming mad over the way they lost Game 2 in overtime.  They had it all but won in the end, and now I look for them to show some real grit in Game 3 to come back and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Spurs are now 8-0 when trailing 1-0 in a first-round series.  They showed their mental toughness in Game 2, but now they are in rough shape after playing an overtime game.  That's especially the case since they may be short-handed with Tony Parker questionable after leaving Game 2 with an injury.

The Clippers are still playing as well as anyone right now with a 15-2 record in their last 17 games overall.  Both of their losses came by exactly 4 points to San Antonio and Golden State.

In fact, the Clippers haven't lost a game by more than 4 points in any of their last 18 contests.  That makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing Los Angeles pertaining to tonight's 4.5-point spread.  Take the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/White Sox OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low for this game tonight between the Royals and White Sox inside hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.  I look for both teams to put up their fair share of runs given the starting pitching matchup.

Danny Duffy has gone 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three starts this season.  Duffy is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA in five career starts against Chicago.  In his last two starts against the White Sox, he has given up 9 earned runs over 7 innings.

Jose Quintana is 1-1 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is 0-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 13 career starts against Kansas City.  In his last two starts against the Royals, Quintana has given up 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 6-0 in Royals last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The OVER is 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts vs. White Sox.  These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the OVER.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 214.5

The NBA playoffs are pretty predictable every year.  Series get lower and lower scoring as they go on on average because teams become more and more familiar with each other, which favors the defenses.

That happened from Game 1 to Game 2 as they scored 226 points in Game 1 and 210 points in Game 2.  I expect an even lower-scoring affair in Game 3 tonight, especially with the way these teams have played in recent meetings.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 meetings.  They have combined for 193, 187, 211, 209, 226 and 210 points.  Given those numbers alone, it's easy to see why there is some value on this UNDER in Game 3 tonight.

Dallas is 13-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +5

I've backed the New Orleans Pelicans with success in both Game 1 and Game 2.  I'll back them again in Game 3 for many of the same reasons, and also a few more.  They are simply showing too good of value to pass up as 5-point underdogs.

The Pelicans closed out the regular season playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 8-3 over their final 11 games just to get into the postseason, which included home wins over both the Spurs and Warriors.  Then, they played the Warriors tough on the road in the first two games, losing by 7 & 10 points.

The Warriors are simply overvalued in the early going in the playoffs because they had the best record in the NBA.  The #1 team is usually overvalued against the #8 team, and that has been the case in 2015 as the #8 seeds are now 4-0 ATS.  Golden State just cannot live up to the lofty expectations set forth from the oddsmakers and betting public.

New Orleans has been a dominant home team this season.  It has gone 28-13 on its home floor with a 24-16-1 ATS record to boot.  It is finally healthy, which is why it is living up to its potential here down the stretch.  With the series on the line in Game 3, I look for the Pelicans to respond in front of their raucous home crowd tonight.

The Pelicans are 27-13 ATS as underdogs this season, including 10-2 ATS as home underdogs.  New Orleans is 19-6 ATS off a road loss this season, and 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 five home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Diego Padres -110

The San Diego Padres will bounce back today following a disappointing 5-4 loss to the Rockies last night after blowing a 4-3 lead in the 8th inning.  I look for them to get back on the winning track due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.  They have gone 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.

Tyson Ross has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the past couple seasons.  He posted a 3.17 ERA in 2013 and a 2.81 ERA in 2014 over 31 starts.  Ross sports a 3.21 ERA in five career starts against Colorado.

Jordan Lyles has not had any success in the big leagues.  He has gone 22-34 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.428 WHIP over 90 career starts and seven relief appearances.  Lyles is 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.834 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego, and he hasn't face a Padres' lineup as potent as the one he'll be up against today.

San Diego is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Lyles is 7-31 (-20.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.  The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego is 7-2 in Ross' last 9 starts as a favorite.  The Rockies are 24-55 in their last 79 games as an underdog.  Colorado is 1-8 in Lyles' last 9 starts vs. NL West.  The Rockies are 1-7 in Lyles' last 8 starts as an underdog.  Take the Padres Thursday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -113

The San Diego Padres are absolutely rolling right now, and I'm going to continue riding this gravy train tonight.  The Padres are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall, while the Rockies have lost five straight games coming in.

San Diego has a huge edge on the mound in this one behind ace James Shields.  The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP through three starts this season.  Shields faced Colorado twice in 2014, giving up just 3 earned runs over 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA while winning both outings.

Kyle Kendrick has absolutely been lit up in the early going for Colorado.  He is 1-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.860 WHIP, giving up 14 earned runs, 31 base runners and 4 homers in 16 2/3 innings.  Kendrick sports a 4.19 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego, and he's never face a Padres' lineup that is as dangerous as this one in 2015.

Shields is 11-1 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 26-10 in their last 36 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Rockies are 21-56 in their last 77 games following a loss.  The Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Padres Wednesday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -129

The Cincinnati Reds have seemed to really respond to manager Bryan Price's media-directed tirade.  They have responded by winning their last two games and outscoring the Brewers 22-11 in the process.  I look for them to grab another win today due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

The Brewers have the majors' worst record right now at 2-12.  They are scoring just 2.9 runs per game, and it's not going to get any better for them in the near future.  They are without their two best hitters in Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez, and starting second-baseman Scooter Gennett is out as well.

Johnny Cueto is right up there in the NL Cy Young race every year, and 2015 looks to be no exception.  Cueto has posted a 2.14 ERA and 0.810 WHIP through three starts this season while striking out 24 over 21 innings.  Cueto is 7-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 16 career starts against Milwaukee.  He is 4-0 in his last four starts against the Brewers while allowing just 6 earned runs over 27 innings for a 2.00 ERA.

The Reds are 44-18 in their last 62 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cincinnati is 48-18 in Cueto's last 66 starts as a favorite.  The Reds are 10-1 in Cueto's last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Brewers are 14-37 in their last 51 overall.  Milwaukee is 1-8 in its last 9 home games.  The Brewers are 1-6 in Jimmy Nelson's last 7 starts.  Milwaukee is 0-5 in Nelson's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take the Reds Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Atlanta Hawks a tougher fight than expected in Game 1 in a 92-99 loss as 11-point underdogs.  I look for them to play even tougher tonight as they look to avoid falling to 0-2 in this series and to easily cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Nets have played their best basketball down the stretch in going 13-7 in their last 20 games overall.  They are finally healthy, and Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson have all stepped up their games.  This team is better than their overall record would indicate even though they snuck in as the No. 8 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks remain overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference.  Well, they aren't as strong of a team now as they were before because their two starting big men are banged up right now in Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  Both are expected to play, but both are hampered by injuries.

Brooklyn is 24-8 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Hawks are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 when playing on two days' rest.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* Astros/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle +102

After losing Game 1 of this series and five of their last seven games overall, I look for the Seattle Mariners to come back with an inspired effort tonight.  They are showing excellent value here as home underdogs due to their recent struggles.

Another reason they are a dog here is because of the disastrous start by one of the top prospects in the game in Taijuan Walker.  This guy is going to be a dominant big league starter before long, but he was roughed up in back-to-back road starts at the Dodgers and A's.

But Walker certainly has not struggled against the Astros in his brief career.  Indeed, he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against Houston.  He won't be suffering his first loss against them today, either.

Houston is 3-21 (-17.4 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons.  The Astros are 93-201 in their last 294 road games.  The Mariners are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Mariners Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -109

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Los Angeles Angels at this kind of price at home.  The reason is because they have lost three straight coming in, but I look at that as a good thing because they will dig even deeper than normal to get a win tonight.

Hector Santiago isn't getting near the respect he deserves.  Santiago is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just four earned runs and 13 base runners over 12 1/3 innings.

What really stands out to me is just how Santiago has dominated Oakland in the recent past.  Indeed, he is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.91 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in five career starts against the A's.  He allowed only two earned runs over 23 1/3 innings in four starts against them in 2014.

Oakland is 6-20 in its last 26 games as an underdog.  The A's are 6-20 in their last 26 games following a win.  Oakland is 1-10 in its last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angels is 7-2 in the last nine meetings, and 4-1 in the last five home meetings.  The home team is 14-6 in Marty Foster's last 20 games behind home play.  Take the Angels Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Rockets NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Mavericks and Rockets played in a high-scoring affair in Game 1 as they combined for 226 combined points.  The total for that game was set at 213, and now the books have raised it up to 215.5 for Game 2, providing us with some value on the UNDER.

As a series goes on, teams get more familiar with one another, and that usually leads to better defense being played.  I look for that to be the case in Game 2 as the intensity is picked up a notch, and the game slows down as a result.

That Game 1 outburst was really an aberration when you look at the regular season meetings.  In fact, the UNDER went 4-0 in the four meetings between these teams during the regular year.  They combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings, or an average of 200.0 points per game.  That fact alone shows that there is value with this UNDER.

Dallas is 12-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge; two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 6 or more consecutive overs are 30-8 (78.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +12.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued tonight as 12.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans.  They had the best record in the NBA this season, and as a result they came into the playoffs getting too much respect from the betting public and oddsmakers.

Yes, the Warriors could have easily covered the 12-point spread in Game 1 as they led by double-digits throughout, but they weren't able to in a 106-99 win.  Now, the Pelicans will be playing even more desperate basketball tonight in Game 2 to try and even the series.

New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season here of late.  It has gone 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games to get into the playoffs.  It has even beaten the likes of San Antonio and Golden State during this stretch.

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Orleans is 26-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pelicans are 16-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  New Orleans is 18-6 ATS off a road loss this year.  The Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +122

Great value here for one of the hottest teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They will be up against a Colorado Rockies team that is coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers over the weekend.

Odrisamer has earned a spot in the starting rotation for the Padres.  He posted a 3.36 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 16 starts last season for San Diego, had a great spring, and now he's 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.343 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings thus far in 2015.  He has allowed just one earned run and four base runners.

Jorge De La Rosa is one of the most overvalued starters in the league and should not be favored here.  He has posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.440 WHIP over his 11-year career.  He went 14-11 with a 4.10 ERA last season for Colorado.  He'll be making his first start of the season tonight.

Colorado is 14-41 (-26.2 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits since 1997.  The Rockies are 6-22 (-16.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons.  Colorado is 15-44 (-28.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 21-7 in their last 28 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Rockies are 0-8 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Padres Monday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +109

The Chicago Cubs have Kris Bryant in the lineup going forward and will be a very dangerous team in the National League with a loaded roster now.  I look for them to really go on a run here soon, and it starts tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs should not be underdogs tonight with the edge they have on the mound.  Jake Arrieta is coming off a career year last season, going 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 25 starts.  He has picked up right where he left off, going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts in 2015. 

Arrieta is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.130 WHIP In four career starts against Pittsburgh, and his teams are 4-0 in those starts.  He'll be opposed by A.J. Burnett, who is overvalued due to a solid start this season.  But you have to remember that Burnett went 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 34 starts last season for Philadelphia.

Arrieta is 17-7 (+12.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Burnett is 7-20 (-13.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.  The Cubs are 10-2 in Arrieta's last 12 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Burnett's last 6 Monday starts.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in Burnett's last 7 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Take the Cubs Monday.

15* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Angels Clippers are showing great value as home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of this series.  I'll take them at a discount in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Clippers are playing as well as anyone entering the playoffs.  They have gone 7-0 in their last seven games and 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They are getting no love today, which will only fuel their fire against the defending champs.

I actually believe the Spurs come into the playoffs deflated because they had the No. 2 seed wrapped up. Instead, they lost their last game of the season to fall to the No. 6 seed and a road series against the Clips.

San Antonio is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Clippers Sunday.

15* Reds/Cardinals ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +167

The Cincinnati Reds are showing tremendous value Sunday as massive road underdogs to the St. Louis Cardinals.  After losing the first two games in this series, they'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep.

Mike Leake is one of the most underrated starters in the league, while Adam Wainwright is one of the most overrated.  That explains this line as the Cardinals are nearly 2-to-1 favorites.

Cincinnati is 139-139 (+39.4 Units) against the money line in road games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games since 1997.   St. Louis is 9-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.  Roll with the Reds Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Playoffs Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Atlanta Hawks come into the playoffs way overvalued.  Yes, they're the No. 1 seed, but they are far from the best team in the postseason.  They're being treated like an elite team with this double-digit spread.

The Nets earned their way into the playoffs with a 101-88 win over Orlando in the season finale.  They obviously aren't as good as they expected to be with that payroll, but when it matters, they have the players who can get it done in the playoffs.

The  Hawks beat the Nets 4-0 during the regular season.  These games weren't close either.  That has the betting public rolling the Hawks, but it also has provided us with great line value to go against the public and take the double-digit points.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Mavericks/Rockets NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Mavericks and Rockets in terms of the over/under.  Based off of their meetings during the regular season, it's clear that there is some value with this under, especially with the defensive intensity amplified in the playoffs.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings this season.  They have combined for 209, 211, 193 and 187 points from most recent to furthest back.  That's an average of 200 combined points per game, which is roughly 11.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 211.5.

When you just look at season averages alone it's clear there's value with the UNDER, too.  The Mavs combine with their opponents for 207.5 points per game overall, and 206.1 points per game on the road.  The Rockets combine with their foes for 204.4 points overall, and only 201.6 at home.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Rockets last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season.  Take this combined 12-0 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER Saturday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +125

After losing Game 1 of this series in heartbreaking fashion to the Red Sox by a final of 2-3, I look for the Baltimore Orioles to bounce back in a big way Saturday with a Game 2 victory.  They have a huge edge on the mound in this one.

Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  He is as consistent as they come.  He has gone 1-1 with a 3.85 ERA in two starts this season.  He owns the Red Sox, going 7-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 16 career starts against them.

Clay Buchholz, on the other hand, is as inconsistent as they come.  He is 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA in two starts this season.  Buchholz has really struggled of late against Baltimore, giving up 9 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings for an 8.38 ERA in his last two starts against them.

Tillman is 7-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.  Tillman is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Buchholz is 0-7 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 32-14 in Tillman's last 46 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Orioles Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+101)

The Washington Nationals are back on track with two straight blowout victories to get to 4-6 on the season.  They have outscored their last two opponents 15-7, and I look for third straight victory by multiple runs tonight due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Max Scherzer, the top free agent this offseason, is already living up to his $210 million contract.  He has posted a 0.66 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just one earned run over 13 2/3 innings.  Scherzer is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan is part of one of the worst starting staffs in baseball.  He certainly wouldn't make many rotations in the league other than Philadelphia.  That's because he is 10-17 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.555 WHIP over 237 1/3 innings in his six-year career in the majors.

Scherzer is 11-1 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  His teams are outscoring the opposition 6.8 to 2.6 in this spot, or by an average of 4.2 runs per game.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins +104

The Miami Marlins are starting to play up to their potential after a 1-6 start.  They have won their last two games while outscoring Atlanta 14-4 in the process.  I look for their offensive surge to continue against the New York Mets tonight at an excellent underdog price.

New York comes into this game overvalued due to its fast 6-3 start, which has included four straight victories coming in.  That winning streak ends today against a Miami team that has a better lineup and arguably the better starter on the mound.

Jarred Cosart is coming off a huge finish last season.  After getting traded from Houston to Miami prior to the July 31st trade deadline, Cosart went on to post a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts with the Marlins.  He has picked up where he left off, giving up just one earned run over six innings against Tampa Bay in his first start this year.

Dillon Gee is not off to a promising start.  He gave up five earned runs and a homer in five innings of a 3-5 loss at Atlanta in his first start of 2015.  Gee went 7-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 22 starts for the Mets last year and is a below-average starter in this league.

New York is 12-35 (-25.9 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Mets are 6-21 (-16.8 Units) against the money line after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival over the last 3 seasons.  Cosart is 6-0 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Marlins Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -125

The San Diego Padres are really playing to their talent level over the past five days.  They have gone 4-1 in those five games, which includes three wins over the defending champion Giants.  After splitting the first two games of this series with Arizona, I look for them to win Game 3 and to take the series tonight.

Brandon Morrow has been slowed by injuries throughout his career.  But he also had to pitch in the tough AL East with Toronto even when he was healthy.  Now, he has made the switch to the National League, and I believe that move will pay big dividends for him all season.

He's certainly off to a great start.  Morrow pitched seven shutout innings while striking out seven batters in a 1-0 win over the San Francisco Giants on April 10th.  I look for him to pick up right where he left off inside the friendly confines of Petco Park.

Arizona has one of the worst pitching staffs in the big leagues.  Chase Anderson is one of its top starters, and he went 9-7 with a 4.01 ERA last year for the Diamondbacks.  Anderson gave up three runs and eight base runners over five innings in his first start of the season against the Dodgers.

Arizona is 10-32 (-21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 6-21 in their last 27 games as a road underdog.  Arizona is 1-10 in its last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Anderson's last four road starts.  The Padres are 36-16 in their last 52 home games, including 20-6 in their last 26 as a home favorite.  Take the Padres Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New Orleans +5.5

The New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs both have a lot to play for tonight.  A win gets New Orleans in the playoffs, while a win for San Antonio gets it the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  So, both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight.

However, there's no question that the Spurs are the one receiving all of the public action in this one because they have won 11 straight while going 9-2 ATS in the process.  That has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the Pelicans here.

New Orleans has been great at home, going 27-13 SU & 23-16-1 ATS this season.  It has won four straight home games coming in with blowout victories over Phoenix (by 15), Minnesota (by 22) and Sacramento (by 14).  Most impressive was its 103-100 home win over Golden State as 4.5-point dogs during this stretch.

The Pelicans have played the Spurs very tough this season.  In fact, they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with San Antonio.  Their only loss came by a final of 93-95 (OT) on the road.  They won 97-90 at on on December 26th and 100-99 on the road on November 8th.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.  The Spurs are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.  San Antonio is 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS following a game with 15 or less assists this season.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread this season.  The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2

The Boston Celtics just clinched a playoff spot with their 117-78 win at Miami on Sunday.  They literally have nothing to play for now, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a big letdown tonight after realizing that they will be playing in the postseason.

The Toronto Raptors still have plenty to play for.  They are just a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They control their own destiny because if they win out, they will be the No. 3 seed.  That would have them playing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round.

Toronto has been fighting down the stretch, going 6-2 in its last eight games overall, including three straight road victories at Charlotte, Orlando and Miami coming in.  Its only two losses have come by a combined 6 points, which is how close it is to being 8-0 during this stretch.

I also like the fact that the Raptors are coming in on two days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  With nothing to play for, I don't expect the Celtics to show up tonight.  Roll with the Raptors Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -126

After losing three straight coming in, the Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Chicago White Sox.  I like their chances of getting a win due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Carlos Carrasco picked up where he left off last season.  He struck out 10 and allowed three hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 2-0 win at Houston on Wednesday.  He posted a 1.30 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 69 innings over his final 10 starts of 2014.  Carrasco went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his final three appearances against the White Sox last season.

Jose Quintana gets the ball for the White Sox in this one.  He went 9-11 with a 3.32 ERA last year for Chicago.  He has given up seven earned runs in 11 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.  Quintana allowed five runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 5-7 loss to Kansas City in his 2015 debut.

The White Sox are 9-23 (-14.2 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 64-29 (+22.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.  Chicago is 7-19 in its last 26 road games.  The White Sox are 1-10 in Quintana's last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Indians are 26-10 in their last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is 7-1 in its last eight games following an off day.  Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -118

After losing two straight and four of their last five games, the Baltimore Orioles come into this game against the New York Yankees highly motivated for a victory.  That's especially the case after losing Game 1 by a final of 5-6 yesterday.

The Orioles give the ball to Miguel Gonzalez, who gave up just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in his first start of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays.  Gonzalez sports a 3.62 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia has lost it.  The longtime ace posted a 4.87 ERA during the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined.  He gave up five runs to Toronto in 5 2/3 innings in his first start of 2015 after having a horrible spring training.  Plus, Sabathia is 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA in his last six regular-season starts at Camden Yards.

Baltimore is 17-7 (+12.5 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons.  The Yankees are 14-32 in their last 46 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  New York is 2-9 in Sabathia's last 11 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Orioles are 35-17 in their last 52 home games.  Baltimore is 20-9 in Gonzalez's last 29 home starts.  Take the Orioles Tuesday.

15* Mariners/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle +115

The Seattle Mariners are showing excellent value here as road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I believe they have the edge on the mound in this one, which will lead them to a third consecutive victory as they look to climb above .500 on the season.

James Paxton is one of the best young starters in the game.  He allowed two runs and four hits in six innings of Tuesday's 2-0 home defeat to the Los Angeles Angels.  In two career starts in NL parks, Paxton is 1-1 with a 0.90 ERA.

Brandon McCarthy was terrible in Arizona last year before finishing strong in New York.  Los Angeles is banking that the strong finish was a sign of things to come.  I don't believe it will be as he went 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA over five spring training starts.  He gave up four runs and nine hits over five-plus innings against San Diego in his first start this year.

The Dodgers are 3-10 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs over the last 2 seasons.  The Mariners are 11-4 in their last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Mariners are 5-1 in Paxton's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  As a result, the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them here down the stretch, which has created a ton of line value to back them.  That's the case again tonight folks.

The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost to Brooklyn by 2 as 9.5-point dogs, beat Philadelphia by 10 as 1-point dogs, only lost to Milwaukee by 8 as 11-point dogs, and beat Orlando by 1 as 11-point dogs.  They are clearly playing hard here down the stretch.

Atlanta literally has nothing to play for and would be wise to rest its starters heading into the playoffs.  It lost 99-108 at Washington yesterday, and you can bet it's not going to overwork its starters in this second of a back-to-back situation.  Paul Millsap is out with a shoulder injury to boot.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Nets UNDER 200

Both the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for heading into their showdown tonight.  The Bulls want home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, while the Nets want to just make the playoffs as they are currently the No. 9 seed if the season were to end today, tied with No. 8 Indiana.

There's no question that both teams are going to be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win tonight.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this contest, especially when you consider the recent history in this head-to-head series.

The Bulls and Nets have combined for 192 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points.  That's an average of 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in a win over Milwaukee on April 8th.  Since that victory, they have clearly shut it down.  They weren't interested in their back-to-back losses to Boston by finals of 90-99 and 78-117, and they won't be interested in this game, either.

The Detroit Pistons are playing out their season and would love to beat Cleveland here to kind of put a cherry on top of a successful second half.  The Pistons are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, which includes a blowout 116-77 win over Charlotte yesterday.

Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 60-30 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Charlotte Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  With that realization, the Hornets won't show up at all today.  That's why I'll lay the points with the Pistons at home in this one.

Without question, the Pistons are finishing out their season.  They have gone a ridiculous 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Stan Van Gundy has this team playing some of their best ball of the season.

The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 5 at Miami, by 18 at home to Toronto, and by 24 at Atlanta.  If that's not evidence that they have quit I don't know that is.  They won't show up today either.

Detroit is 15-5 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Charlotte is 33-59 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less since 1996.  The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.   The Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -137

Chris Sale makes his 2015 debut today after having to miss some time due to a broken foot.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues, and that's again evident today considering we are getting him at only -133 against the lowly Twins.

The White Sox finally got their first win of the season yesterday in a 5-4 home victory over the Twins.  I look for them to build off that win and to have some confidence coming into this Game 3 against Minnesota and starter Phil Hughes.

Sale is coming off a Cy Young-caliber season as he went 12-4 with a 2.17 ERA last year.  He owns the Twins, going 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

The Twins are 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog.  The White Sox are 27-11 in Sales last 38 starts as a home favorite.  Chicago is 4-0 in Sale's last four starts vs. Twins.  Take the White Sox Sunday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have absolutely nothing to play for right now.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but will be playing their opening series on the road due to being two games back of the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland had a golden chance to move up in the standings on Thursday at Golden State, but struggled down the stretch in a 105-116 loss.  That loss was probably the last straw for this team as now they'll be more concerned with getting rested heading into the playoffs than anything.

That's evident by the fact that they are expected to rest their best player in LaMarcus Aldridge tonight.  Aaron Afflalo injured his shoulder against the Warriors and is out 1-2 weeks.  Portland was already without Wesley Matthews and Dorell Wright, so it is short-handed tonight to say the least.

What you have to love about the Utah Jazz is just how they have continued to lay it on the line every night despite being out of playoff contention.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an 88-89 loss to Memphis last night.  Their two losses in their last three games have come by a combined 3 points.

Utah is 1-2 against Portland this season, but its two losses have come by a combined 4 points, while its win came by 16.  The Jazz are 19-3 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as generous -127 home favorites over the Kansas City Royals tonight.  They opened around -148 favorites and the betting public has been pounding the Royals, giving us 21 extra points of juice.

The reason the public is all over the Royals is because they are 4-0.  They are clearly overvalued after that start, and now they send their worst starter to the mound in Jeremy Guthrie.  The right-hander has really struggled in his last three starts against the Angels, giving up 16 runs, 13 earned, and 8 homers in 21 innings.

Meanwhile, the Angels will be out for revenge after losing Game 1 of this series, and they'll be sending their ace to the mound to get payback.  Jered Weaver loves facing Kansas City.  He is 7-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Royals.

Los Angeles also wants revenge from behind swept by the Royals in the postseason last year.  Weaver is 94-38 (+32.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.  The Angels are 42-13 in Weaver's last 55 home starts.  Take the Angels Saturday.

15* Rays/Marlins Interleague No-Brainer on Miami +104

The Miami Marlins opened the season 0-3 and were in desperate need of a win yesterday.  They game through in a game way with a walk-off hit to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 10-9.  I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence today in Game 2 of this series against the Rays Saturday.

Jared Cosart is one of the many underrated starters in this Miami rotation.  He went 13-11 with a 3.69 ERA in 2014 and is looking forward to getting back on the mound after a blister on his right  middle finger delayed his first start.

Cosart is a perfect 3-0 in three career starts against the Rays.  He has compiled a minuscule 1.17 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in those three starts while allowing 3 earned runs over 23 innings.  He was an underdog of +260, +130 and +175 in those three starts as well.

The Marlins are 19-7 in their last 26 interleague games overall, including 9-1 in thier last 10 interleague games as a favorite.  The Marlins are 15-2 in their last 17 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 1-5 in Chris Archer's last six interleague starts.  Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego Padres -114

After opening the season 1-3 following last night's 1-0 loss to the Giants in Game 1 of this series in 12 innings, the San Diego Padres are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 2 to get back on track.

Brandon Morrow will get the nod for the Padres, and his new home should help revive his career.  He has spent most of his career in Toronto, which has been a tough place to pitch and a tough division to pitch against in the AL East.  Now he's in the NL West inside Petco Park, which will make a huge difference for the fly-ball pitcher.

The Giants will give the ball to Tim Lincecum, who has completely lost it over the last few years.  He went 1-4 with an 8.24 ERA in his final seven starts last season and was relegated to the bullpen.  Lincecum wasn't much better this spring, posting a 5.95 ERA in three starts and four relief appearances.

San Diego is 30-13 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 1 run or less over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 24-8 in their last 32 home games overall.  The Giants are 0-7 in Lincecum's last 7 road starts with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.  Take the Padres Friday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.  San Antonio beat Houston 110-98 at home on Wednesday for 208 combined points.  So, they're now playing two days later, and their familiarity with one another will lead to more of a defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Plus, both these teams are fighting for the Southwest Division Title.  Houston is 53-25 while San Antonio is 53-26, just a half-game back.  Both have a realistic shot of getting the No. 2 seed in the West, but both could also slip to No. 5 if they don't finish strong.  That means both teams should be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.

Previous meetings in Houston have been extremely low-scoring in comparison to this total.  They have combined for 179, 202, 187 and 191 points in their last four meetings in Houston as the UNDER has gone 4-0.  That's an average combined score of 189.8 points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.5.

San Antonio is 12-2 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Houston is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last two seasons.  Houston is 13-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 191

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season due to their ability to get after it on the defensive end of the court.  In fact, they rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.9 points per 100 possessions.

Now, they'll be up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA in the New York Knicks.  The Knicks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions.  New York also plays at a very slow tempo, ranking 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game.

The last two meetings between these teams in 2015 have been very low-scoring.  They Bucks won 95-82 for 177 combined points and 95-79 for 174 combined points, which are both numbers that are well below tonight's posted total of 191, showing just how much value there is with this UNDER.

New York is 8-1 UNDER when revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games following a loss. The UNDER is 21-10 in Bucks last 31 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record.  They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon.

The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.  They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10.  They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time.

Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers.  They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight.  I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all.

Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Nets UNDER 200.5

Both the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for right now.  Washington is one game back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  Brooklyn is one game ahead of Indiana for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, just fighting to make the playoffs.

Because these two teams have a lot to play for right now, I look for both to be laying it all on the line defensively.  Washington has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What I really love about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings in 2015 alone where they've combined for 182, 189 and 191 points.  That's an average of 187.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.5.  Plus, the familiarity between these teams having played 4 times in 2015 alone will favor the defenses.

Washington is 170-107 UNDER in road games when the total is 190 to 199.5 points since 1996.  Brooklyn is 15-5 UNDER after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Wizards last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 35-12-2 in Wizards last 49 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for.  They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way.  That has been evident in their last couple games.

Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months.  It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents.  It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round.  They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

"We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two."  That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs.

"We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard.  That sounds like a guy determined to get home court.  The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two.

Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Blue Jays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Toronto -104

C.C. Sabathia is far past his prime at 34 years old.  He made just eight starts last year but didn't pitch after May 10 due to a season-ending knee injury.  However, he was coming off the worst year of his career in 2013, where he went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA.

Sabathia, who started Opening Day from 2006-2014, gave way to Masahiro Tanaka this season.  If the spring was any indication, Sabathia is going to struggle again in 2015.  Over 10 innings in the big leagues this spring, he allowed nine runs on 14 hits, three of which were home runs.

The Blue Jays have to be excited about Daniel Norris, who is one of the top pitching prospects in the game.  He had the best K/9 ratio (11.8) in the minors last season behind a dancing fastball that tops out at 96-97 mph.  He struck out 29 batters over 24 2/3 innings in the spring as well.

Toronto is 4-1 in its last five games as a favorite.  New York is 5-11 in Sabathia's last 16 starts as an underdog.  The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 during Game 3 of a series.  Toronto is 13-5 in its last 18 games with Jerry Meals behind home plate.  Roll with the Blue Jays Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -122

San Diego fans will be excited about the Padres' home opener tonight against the defending world champion San Francisco Giants.  I look for the team to respond, especially after losing two out of three to the Dodgers to open the series.

Ian Kennedy is looking to build on a strong 2014 season that saw him record a career-high 207 strikeouts over 201 innings.  Kennedy is 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA in 20 career starts against the Giants, so he certainly loves facing this team.

The 39-year-old Tim Hudson gets the ball for the Giants after struggling at the end of last season.  He finished 9-13 with a 3.57 ERA last year, but was much better in the first half than the second.  He simply doesn't have much left in the tank.

The Padres are 8-3 in home openers since 2004.  San Diego is 24-7 in its last 31 home games overall.  The Padres are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts overall.  San Diego is 9-4 in its last 13 home meetings with San Francisco.  Take the Padres Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17

This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover.  They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season.  They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed.

Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday.  While both are expected to return, they are still banged up.  Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season.

Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night.  That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go.  They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.

Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings.  The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Knicks UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks tonight.  These teams have played in low-scoring games in all three meetings this season, and I look for that to continue tonight.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  New York ranks 29th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 24th.  Both teams prefer to play at slow paces too.  New York ranks 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 19th at 95.7 possessions per contest.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams as they've combined for 178, 187, 185 and 178 points, respectively.  That's an average of 182.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5.

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER in road games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Rays OVER 7

This 7-run total in Game 3 of this series between the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays makes no sense to me.  The first two games of this series also had 7-run totals, but both teams had better starters on the mound than they do tonight, yet both games went OVER the total in 6-2 and 6-5 Orioles' victories.

Miguel Gonzalez is a solid starter after going 10-9 with a 3.23 ERA last year for the Orioles, but he is not as good as Chris Tillman or Wei-Yin Chen.  Jake Odorizzi, who went 11-13 with a 4.13 ERA last year for the Rays, certainly isn't as good as Tampa's first two starters in Chris Archer and Nate Karns.

What really stands out to me is how poor these starters have been against their opposition.  Gonzalez is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay.  He has allowed seven earned runs, 22 base runners and 4 homers over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays.  Odorizzi is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He allowed 8 earned runs runs, 12 base runners and 4 homers in 4 innings in his last start against the Orioles.

Baltimore is 13-3 OVER in April road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 games following a win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last 7 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8

The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams.  I look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit.  They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage.

Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season.  It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs.  The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series.

Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well.  The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -109

After getting shut out in the opener 3-0, the Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated to get a win in Game 2 of this series to avoid falling to 0-2 on the season.  Jon Lester didn't have his best stuff, and the Cubs went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position.  That's not going to happen again.

Now the Cubs will be giving the ball to one of the most underrated starters in the game.  Jake Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts last year for Chicago.  Lance Lynn is a quality starter coming off a big year as well, but he is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here with this short line.

Arrieta is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis, allowing just three earned runs over 29 1/3 innings of work.  Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday, two of the best hitters for the Cardinals, are 0-for-23 with eight strikeouts all-time versus Arrieta.

St. Louis is 5-17 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals are 14-29 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.  Arrieta is 16-7 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Chicago is 10-3 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 in Lynn's last 7 starts as a road underdog.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Arrrieta's last 4 home starts.  Roll with Chicago Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go.  After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason.

Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point.  That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now.

The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta.  I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season.  New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight.

Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder.  I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more.

The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be.  I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here.

Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year.  The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio.  Take the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1

The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky.  Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.

I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.  Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.

While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison.  Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four.  This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes.  Bet Wisconsin Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

I expect a big bounce-back season out of the Reds this year after winning 77 games last year.  They had won 90-plus games in three of the previous four seasons before suffering an MLB-high 38 one-run losses last season.  They were better than their record would indicate.

Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were both hurt last year, and Jay Bruce had an unusual down year, likely due to not having much protection with those two out.  Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton should build off of big years last season.  They added in Marlon Byrd, who hit 25 homers last year and will help make this one of the best lineups in baseball.

The biggest reason I'm on the Reds in the opener is due to their edge on the mound.  Ace Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He's coming off another big year where he went 20-9 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 34 starts, including 13-4 with a 1.171 WHIP and 0.828 WHIP in 18 home starts.

Cueto has simply owned the Pirates, going 18-5 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  He went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six starts against Pittsburgh in 2014, giving up just nine earned runs in 46 innings of work, which included two complete games.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +116

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year with all they lost in the offseason.  They lost manager Joe Maddon, second-baseman Ben Zobrist and outfielder Wil Myers.  They also lost David Price before the trade deadline last year.

The Baltimore Orioles continue to be one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They won the AL East last year and went 99-66.  They should not be an underdog to the Rays in the opener as they are once again lacking the respect they deserve.

Chris Tillman gets the start for Baltimore after going 14-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 36 starts last season.  Tillman went 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay last season, allowing just four earned runs over 21 innings.

Because Price is gone, Tampa Bay now sends Chris Archer to the mound on opening day.  He's a solid starter but no ace.  Archer is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He went 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Orioles last year, allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings.

Tillman is 26-11 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 17-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 25-7 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Orioles Monday.

20* Cardinals/Cubs 2015 MLB Season Opener on Chicago -108

This is going to be a raucous crowd tonight at Wrigley Field in anticipation for the Chicago Cubs' season opener.  When watching this game, you'll see a new videoboard beyond the left-field wall, which signifies a new day and a new era at Wrigley.

The Cubs had a huge offseason in adding ace Jon Lester and manager Joe Maddon to go along with one of the top young lineups in baseball.  Lester will get his chance to show that he was worth his big contract as the Opening Day starter tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Lester has been a member of the American League his entire career, and the change to the National League will only further his success.  Lester went 16-11 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP with 225 strikeouts in 227 innings last year, including 8-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 17 home starts.

Adam Wainwright is a solid starter in his own right, but he's nearing the decline of his career.  Wainwright is 11-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 27 career starts against Chicago.  Lester is 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis, two of which came in the World Series two years ago in which he allowed one earned run over 15 1/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190

Both the Miami Heat (34-42) and Indiana Pacers (33-43) are on the outside looking in right now when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Heat are in 9th place just 1.5 games back of Boston, while the Pacers are in a tied for 10th just 1.5 games behind Boston.

It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a win.  What that means is that the defensive intensity will be at an all-time high this season for both teams, which I believe will lead to a defensive battle and low-scoring affair.

Two of three meetings between these teams this season have been extremely low-scoring.  They combined for 156 points in their first meeting back on November 12th, and 176 points in their most recent clash on January 23rd.  Yes, they did have a 201-point outing in between, but they are still only averaging 177.7 combined points per game this season.  That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.

Miami is 12-1 UNDER when playing against a losing team with a winning percentage of 40% of 49% this season.  Indiana is 11-3 UNDER in home games where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Heat last 16 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in Heat last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point?  They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences.  The answer is that they have nothing to play for.  Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. 

It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late.  They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit.  If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is.

The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston.  The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games.  That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round.

I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5

Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.

Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.

While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.

There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable.  However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played.  The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32.  I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.

I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played.  It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7.  I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.

Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament.  The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.