|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-09-12||Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's OVER 7||Top||0-2||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
20* Tigers/A's AL Tuesday Night BAILOUT on OVER 7
The Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's should have no problem combining to score eight-plus runs tonight in Game 3 of this series. Both starting pitchers are getting too much credit tonight with this small total set.
Anibal Sanchez has not been that good all season. He's 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA in 31 starts this year. In his lone career start against Oakland on September 20th, Sanchez allowed six runs over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-12 home loss to the A's.
Brett Anderson has struggled in his last two starts for Oakland, giving up eight earned runs over nine innings for an 8.00 ERA. One of those starts came at Detroit on September 19th where he allowed three earned runs and six base runners in 2 2/3 innings before getting pulled in a 2-6 loss to the Tigers.
The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 7-1 in A's last 8 games following a loss. The OVER is 5-1 in Anderson's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. These four trends combined for a 22-3 (88%) system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|10-08-12||New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles +125||2-3||Win||125||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* Yankees/Orioles AL Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore +125
The Baltimore Orioles have been a resilient team all season. After dropping Game 1 of this series to the New York Yankees, I look for the Orioles to show that resiliency and win Game 2 at home tonight to get right back in this series.
Wei-Yin Chen has had a solid season as 12-11 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.261 WHIP over 32 starts for the Orioles. While he's a MLB postseason newcomer, Chen made 10 starts in the Japanese playoffs and two in the 2008 Olympics for Chinese Taipei.
Andy Pettite has been solid in limited action for the Yankees this season, but he's been at his worst on the road. Pettite is 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in five starts away from home this year.
The Orioles are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts as a home underdog. Baltimore is 12-5 in Chen's last 17 starts as an underdog overall. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Baltimore is 23-9 in its last 32 home games overall. Bet the Orioles Monday.
|10-08-12||Houston Texans v. NY Jets +9||Top||23-17||Win||100||98 h 45 m||Show|
20* Texans/Jets AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +9
The New York Jets are thoroughly embarrassed after their 34-0 loss to the San Francisco 49ers last week. They will be ready to take out their frustration on the 4-0 Houston Texans on Monday Night football to silence their critics.
The Jets are a much better team than they showed last week as nothing went right. As a result of that performance, public perception is down on them, which has provided us with some excellent line value here. Whatever these players have to give, they will be laying it on the field tonight, which will be good enough to stay within this inflated number.
Public perception on the Texans is at an all-time high right now as many believe they are the best team in the league. There's no question they are one of the best, but at 4-0, this team is simply overvalued tonight. Three of their wins came against the lowly Titans, Jaguars and Dolphins.
This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after a loss by 14 or more points.
Houston has never beaten New York, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in five meetings all-time. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5. The Jets are 14-3 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Bet New York Monday.
|10-07-12||San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints -3||Top||24-31||Win||100||74 h 37 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Saints SNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans -3
This is a must-win for the New Orleans Saints Sunday night if they want to have any shot of making the playoffs. Only one team has come back to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start dating back to 1992. I look for the Saints to play with a sense of urgency tonight, which will allow them to cover this small number at home against the San Diego Chargers.
New Orleans is much better than its 0-4 record would indicate. All four losses have come by single-digits, including the last two by a combined four points. This team could just as easily be 4-0 instead of 0-4. I look for its best effort of the season tonight.
The Chargers are one of the most overrated teams in the league this year. Their three wins have come against the Raiders, Titans and Chiefs, which are three teams with a combined 3-9 record. Their true colors showed in a 7-27 home loss to the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons.
New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. These four trends make for a perfect 25-0 system backing New Orleans. Take the Saints Sunday.
|10-07-12||Tennessee Titans +6 v. Minnesota Vikings||7-30||Loss||-110||70 h 31 m||Show|
15* Titans/Vikings Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +6
The Tennessee Titans are highly motivated for a win Sunday to save their season. After a 1-3 start, they are looking at this game as a must-win. The Minnesota Vikings are one of the most overrated teams in the league at 3-1 this season. They are getting way too much love from oddsmakers.
Minnesota beat Detroit 20-13 last week despite getting outgained 227-341. They did so due to two special teams touchdowns with a kick return and a punt return touchdown. It was seriously a fluke win to say the least, and they were lucky to beat Jacksonville 26-23 at home in overtime in Week 1.
Tennessee has played a brutal schedule this season. All three of its losses have come to New England, San Diego and Houston, including two on the road. Coming in battle-tested, the Titans will put their best effort forward Sunday, and it will be enough to cover this spread. In fact, there's a very good chance the Titans win outright.
Matt Hasselbeck has had a full week of practice to prepare for being the starter this week. He was thrown into the wolves against the Texans last week, and he threw two pick 6's, which turned a close game into a blowout. Hasselbeck will be much sharper this time around given the circumstances.
This play falls into a system that is 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs or pick (TENNESSEE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
The Titans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Vikings are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 5 home games. Take the Titans Sunday.
|10-07-12||Philadelphia Eagles v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3||Top||14-16||Loss||-120||91 h 27 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
There are quite a few different factors favoring the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, enough to earn GAME OF THE YEAR status folks. I fully expect them to beat the Philadelphia Eagles by four-plus points in a blowout.
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and it couldn't have come at a better time. It has opened 1-2 after blowing fourth quarter leads to the Broncos and Raiders. Motivated to avoid dropping to 1-3, I simply cannot see the Steelers losing this contest.
The Steelers will be getting three of their best players back from injury this week. Most importantly, LB James Harrison and S Troy Polamalu will be back on the field, which will make Pittsburgh's defense a lot more formidable than it has been over the last few weeks. Also, RB Rashard Mendenhall makes his season debut.
Philadelphia is in a huge letdown spot against the Steelers after beating NFC East rival New York on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. The Eagles are 3-1 this season, but their three wins have come by a combined four points. This team is not as good as its record would indicate, and it has been outscored by 10.0 points/game on the road this season against the Browns and Cardinals.
Ben Roethlisberger is 13-1 at home against NFC opponents in his career. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Pittsburgh 8-0 ATS is in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. These last three trends make for a perfect 23-0 system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-07-12||Miami Dolphins +4 v. Cincinnati Bengals||17-13||Win||100||66 h 7 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +4
The Miami Dolphins will be playing with a sense of urgency Sunday as they try to avoid dropping to 1-4 on the season. The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-1 on the year and could be in for a big letdown here after their fast start. Miami wants this one more, and I believe it is the better team, which is why I'll side with the points.
The Dolphins really should be 3-1 this season instead of 1-3. They have lost a pair of overtime games to the Jets and Cardinals that they really should have won. This team is better than its record would indicate, while the Bengals are not as good as their 3-1 record. Cincinnati has only beaten Cleveland, Jacksonville and Washington. Remember, this is a team that only beat one squad with a winning record last season while going 9-7 and making the playoffs.
This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CINCINNATI) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog.
The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games vs. a team with a winnng record. The Bengals are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC foes. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-07-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Kansas City Chiefs +6||9-6||Win||100||66 h 6 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Chiefs AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Kansas City +6
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best 1-3 teams in the league this season. They have simply beat themselves so far this season, turning the ball over more times than any other team in the league. They have given it away 15 times this season and are -13 in turnover differential.
As a result, the Chiefs are going to be showing great value for a few weeks, especially this week at home against the Baltimore Ravens. When you look at the numbers, you can see that the Chiefs are a much better team than their record. Kansas City averages 419 yards/game offensively while giving up 334 yards/game defensively, so it is outgaining opponents by 85 yards/game.
Baltimore really misses 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs. Their stop unit is one of the most overrated in the league this season. Baltimore is giving up 390 total yards/game, which ranks 22nd in the league. Its last three opponents, including Cleveland, have thrown for over 300 yards.
This play falls into a system that is 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after a loss by 14 or more points.
The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. Bet the Chiefs Sunday.
|10-06-12||Nebraska v. Ohio State -3||Top||38-63||Win||100||50 h 50 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -3
The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much bigger home favorite over the Nebraska Cornhuskers Saturday. At 5-0 this season, the Buckeyes appear to me like the best team n the Big Ten. They went on the road and earned a hard-fought 17-16 victory at Michigan State last week.
Nebraska is way overrated this season. The Huskers are 4-0 at home against easy competition in Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Idaho State and Wisconsin. They really should have lost to the Badgers last week after trailing 10-27 in the third quarter, and we all know how down Wisconsin football is this season. In their lone road game this season, the Huskers lost at UCLA 30-36.
The Huskers came back in similar fashion on the Buckeyes last season at home. They were trailing 6-27, but scored 28 unanswered points to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. These Ohio State players remember that game, and they will be hungry for revenge. Nebraska won't be pulling any crazy comebacks on the road this time around.
Nebraska's weakness is a defense that ranks 60th against the run (152.8 yards/game) and its strength is a rush offense that ranks 5th (305.8 yards/game). That makes this an excellent match-up for the Buckeyes considering they rank 20th in run defense (100.8 yards/game) and 21st in rush offense (224.2 yards/game).
The Cornhuskers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. Nebraska is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Buckeyes are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 conference games. Ohio State is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|10-06-12||Tulsa v. Marshall OVER 69.5||45-38||Win||100||45 h 19 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/Marshall OVER 69.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar way too low for this contest Saturday between Marshall and Tulsa. These are two of the best offenses in the country, and two of the worst defenses as well. I look for both teams to score 40-plus in this one.
Tulsa is scoring 42.0 points/game and averaging 481 total yards/game. Marshall is scoring 41.0 points/game and averaging 556 total yards/game. Tulsa is giving up 40.0 points/game on the road this season. Marshall is yielding 44.4 points and 496 total yards/game this year.
This play falls into a system that is 80-37 (68.4%) to the OVER during the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on any team against the total (MARSHALL) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|10-06-12||Oklahoma -4.5 v. Texas Tech||41-20||Win||100||45 h 19 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -4.5
Steaming mad over their loss to Kansas State last time and with two weeks to boil over it, I look for the Oklahoma Sooners to roll right over the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game having last played the Wildcats on Saturday, September 22nd. That extra rest is a huge advantage heading into this one.
Texas Tech is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has opened 4-0, but it has played a very soft schedule with the likes of Northwestern State, Texas State, New Mexico and Iowa State. Oklahoma is battle-tested heading into this one while the Red Raiders certainly are not.
Not only are the Sooners pissed off about their loss to Kansas State, they also want revenge from a shocking 38-41 home loss to Texas Tech last season. The Sooners came into that game as a 29-point favorite. They are not showing excellent value as only a 4.5-point favorite in this great spot.
The Sooners are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Red Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These last three trends add up to a 16-0 system in favor of the Sooners. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|10-06-12||Virginia Tech +6 v. North Carolina||34-48||Loss||-106||42 h 19 m||Show|
15* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +6
The Virginia Tech Hokies should not be an underdog to the UNC Tar Heels, let alone a 6-point dog. This team is much better than it has shown so far, and I look for the Hokies to put their best foot forward Saturday after a heartbreaking 24-27 last-second loss at Cincinnati last week.
I know the Hokies have two losses this season, but if you look at who they played, it's really not all that shocking. They simply had a hard time getting up for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, which are two teams from the Big East. Returning to ACC action will help get Virginia Tech focused.
North Carolina is a quality team, but it is getting too much respect here. Like VA Tech, the Tar Heels are also 3-2, but their three wins have come against cupcake opponents in Elon, East Carolina and Idaho. They don't have a quality win yet, and I don't see them getting one Saturday, either.
North Carolina is 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Virginia Tech is 59-37 ATS in all road games since 1992. The Hokies are 15-5 ATS in road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games since 1992. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UNC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a win. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|10-06-12||Northwestern v. Penn State -2.5||28-39||Win||100||42 h 49 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State -2.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here. Penn State could easily be 5-0 right now. They blew leads against Ohio and Virginia before reeling off three straight impressive victories over Navy, Temple and Illinois.
Northwestern is way overrated after its 5-0 start. You could argue that the Wildcats don't have a quality win yet. They have four home victories over Vanderbilt, Boston College, South Dakota and Indiana. Their lone road win came at Syracuse against an Orange team that is 1-3 heading into their Pitt game Friday night. This is easily the Wildcats' toughest game of the season.
Penn State is a dominant defensive team that will be able to slow down this Northwestern offense that has clicked against soft competition. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 13.6 points/game this season. They also have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. Matt McGloin is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,217 yards with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
The Wildcats are 109th in the nation in pass defense (289.0 yards per game), and they've struggled to contain Matt McGloin before. The senior quarterback has thrown six touchdowns without an interception, taking only one sack, in beating Northwestern the past two seasons.
Northwestern has lost five straight to Penn State while giving up an average of 33 points/game. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, winning all four by double-digits.
The Wildcats are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games. The Nittany Lions are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall as it is consistently undervalued each week. Take Penn State Saturday.
|10-05-12||Utah State +7 v. BYU||Top||3-6||Win||100||45 h 13 m||Show|
20* Utah State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State +7
The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They will show tonight what they are capable of with a huge road victory over the BYU Cougars.
Utah State lost at BYU 24-27 last year on a heartbreaker. The Cougars scored a garbage touchdown with only 11 seconds left on a pass that was tipped to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. The Aggies want revenge in a bad way, and they'll get it tonight behind Chuckie Keeton and company.
Keeton is certainly one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has led Utah State to a 4-1 start with its only loss coming at Wisconsin 14-16 as the Aggies missed a potential game-winning field goal late.
Keeton is completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,281 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also rushed for 218 yards on the year. Explosive tailback Kerwynn Williams has rushed for 519 yards and three touchdowns. He also has a team-high 18 receptions for 262 yards and two scores.
BYU's offense is simply atrocious. That's why they should not be favored by a touchdown here, especially against a better team like Utah State that is out for revenge. The Aggies rank 40th in the country in total offense and 12th in total defense against a reasonable schedule.
The Aggies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Aggies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cougars are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. WAC opponents. The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Bet Utah State Friday.
|10-05-12||Baltimore Orioles +186 v. Texas Rangers||5-1||Win||186||8 h 17 m||Show|
15* Orioles/Rangers AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore +186
The Baltimore Orioles have had a magical season, and it's not about to end Friday. I look for the Orioles to take down the Texas Rangers in this one-game playoff in the American League wild-card.
Texas is still stunned after getting swept by the Oakland A's in their last three games. One win and Texas would have been AL West champs, instead they have to play in this one-game playoff. They don't come into this game in a very good state of mind to say the least.
Joe Saunders gets the ball tonight, and he thrives on the road. Saunders has posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 14 road starts this season. I like his chances against Yu Darvish, who sports a 3.90 ERA on the season, and a 3.88 ERA at home.
The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Orioles are 17-5 in their last 22 games following a loss. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Roll with the Orioles Friday.
|10-05-12||St. Louis Cardinals +161 v. Atlanta Braves||6-3||Win||161||5 h 48 m||Show|
15* Cards/Braves NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis +161
The St. Louis Cardinals are one team that will not be afraid of the pressure they'll face Friday in this one-game series with Atlanta. I look for the defending world champs to win this game and advance to the next round.
Kyle Lohse is one of the most underrated starters in the game. He's 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 33 starts this season. Lohse sports a 3-1 record in four career starts against Atlanta.
Lohse is 14-2 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Take the Cardinals Friday.
|10-04-12||USC v. Utah +14.5||38-28||Win||100||21 h 25 m||Show|
15* USC/Utah ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Utah +14.5
The USC Trojans are getting way too much respect on the road Thursday as greater than a two-touchdown favorite against the Utah Utes. Home teams have been dominant on Thursday night college football this season. We just saw Washington upset Stanford last week, and I look for the Utes to give the Trojans a run for their money tonight.
What makes Utah so competitive is a defense that is as good as almost anyone in the country. It ranks 30th in the land in total defense (329.5 yards/game), including 28th against the run (111.3 yards/game) and 50th against the pass (218.3 yards/game).
There's no question the offense has struggled en route to a 2-2 start for the Utes. However, they have been up against some of the best defenses in the country with the likes of Utah State, BYU and Arizona State. They managed 24 points in a 24-21 victory over BYU in their last home game, which was impressive considering the Cougars rank 5th in the country in total defense.
Utah wants revenge from a 23-14 road loss to USC last season. The Utes were trying to tie the game with a field goal on the game's final play, but it was blocked and return for a touchdown by USC that made the final score seem like more of a blowout than it really was. The Utes proved they could play with the Trojans on the road last year, and with 16 starters back from that team, they certainly can hang with them at home this time around.
This play falls into a system that is 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTAH) - after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning.
The Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Utah is 48-27 ATS in its last 75 games as an underdog. The Trojans are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. USC hasn't looked good in its two road games, losing at Stanford and beating Syracuse by just 13 points. Take Utah Thursday.
|10-04-12||Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams +2||Top||3-17||Win||100||21 h 51 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +2
After a hard fought 19-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks, the St. Louis Rams now sit at 2-2 on the season. If they want any shot of winning the NFC West this season, this game against the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals is a must-win Thursday night.
I look for the Rams to take care of business against the most overrated team in the league tonight. It's a complete fluke that the Cardinals are 4-0 this season considering they have the 31st ranked offense (271.7 yards/game) and the 17th ranked defense (357.2 yards/game). That's right folks, they are getting outgained by 85.5 yards/game yet they are 4-0.
St. Louis has been a completely different team at home this season, beating two solid squads in Washington (31-28) and Seattle (19-13). They are a last-second touchdown at Detroit away from being 3-1 this season. Even their 6-23 loss at Chicago was a 6-10 game entering the 4th quarter before the Bears returned an interception for a touchdown to break it open.
Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after 3 or more consecutive wins. The Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. St. Louis is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 home games overall. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC opponents. Bet the Rams Thursday.
|10-04-12||Arkansas State v. Florida International +2||34-20||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
15* Arkansas State/FIU Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +2
The FIU Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 1-4 start. I'll gladly side with the value in this contest and back them as a home underdog to the Arkansas State Red Wolves Thursday.
FIU was one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt this season with 17 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last season. Arkansas State won the Sun Belt last year, but with only 10 starters back, it slipped in the preseason rankings and is unlikely to repeat.
After playing a brutal schedule through their first five games, I look for FIU to finall get on track and get revenge on an Arkansas State team that beat them 34-16 last season. The Red Wolves needed 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter at home to steal that victory from the Golden Panthers.
The home team has been dominant in this series, winning five straight and six of the last seven meetings. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Take Florida International and the points.
|10-03-12||Baltimore Orioles -107 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||1-4||Loss||-107||7 h 52 m||Show|
20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -107
The Baltimore Orioles trail the New York Yankees by one game in the AL East race. A win and a New York loss tonight, and Baltimore would host a tiebreaker Thursday between these teams. A win tonight would also assure that they would host the wild-card game even if the Yankees were to win the AL East.
The Orioles still have a lot to play for, and the same cannot be said for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays had their hopes of making the postseason crushed on Monday, and they went on to lose 1-0 to the Orioles last night. Tampa is deflated right now and will not be up for this Game 3 tonight.
Baltimore's Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the game. He has gone 9-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his last three. In his last two starts against Tampa, Tillman is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 12 innings.
The Orioles are 7-0 in Tillman's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Rays are 0-5 in Hellickson's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. These four trends make for a 20-0 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Wednesday.
|10-02-12||Baltimore Orioles +125 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||1-0||Win||125||7 h 46 m||Show|
20* AL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +122
The Baltimore Orioles trail the New York Yankees by one game for the AL East lead. They will be the more motivated team tonight considering Tampa Bay was just eliminated from postseason contention Monday as Oakland clinched the final wild-card spot in the American League.
Baltimore will win tonight behind Miguel Gonzalez, who is one of the most underrated starters in the league. Gonzalez is 8-4 with a .45 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 14 starts and three relief appearances this year, including 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in his last three starts.
James Shield is 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in two starts against Baltimore this season, yielding nine earned runs and 20 base runners over 12 1/3 innings. Miguel Gonzalez is 0-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last two starts against Tampa, giving up just two earned runs over 13 innings.
The Orioles are 7-1 in Gonzalez's last 8 starts vs. American League East. Baltimore is 16-5 in its last 21 games following a loss. The Orioles are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.
|10-01-12||Chicago Bears v. Dallas Cowboys -3||Top||34-18||Loss||-125||125 h 56 m||Show|
20* Bears/Cowboys ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Dallas -3
The Dallas Cowboys are showing awesome value as only a 3-point home favorite over the Chicago Bears Monday night. Dallas is off to a 2-1 start this season with wins over the Giants and Bucs, and they've only played one home game thus far.
The Chicago Bears have played two homes games and just one road game en route to their 2-1 start. They beat the Colts and Rams at home, which is far from impressive. Their lone road game resulted in a 10-23 loss at Green Bay. Jay Cutler threw four interceptions and was sacked 7 times in that loss to the Packers.
I really like what Dallas did this offseason with the upgrades they made in the secondary, and it's clearly paying dividends. The Cowboys rank 1st in the league in total defense (250.0 yards/game), including 2nd against the pass (137.0 yards/game). Their cornerbacks have had a lot better coverage, which allows the defensive line to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The Bears have not been very good on offense despite their 2-1 start. They rank just 27th in the league in total offense (290.0 yards/game). What is going to really hurt the Bears is the fact that Matt Forte is doubtful with a knee injury, and this offense is really going to miss his playmaking ability.
Chicago is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 175 or less passing yards/game. The Bears are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt. Dallas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games vs. poor passing teams with a completion pct. of 53% or worse. The Cowboys are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry. Bet the Cowboys Monday.
|10-01-12||San Diego Padres +141 v. Milwaukee Brewers||3-5||Loss||-100||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +141
The Milwaukee Brewers made a valiant run over the last month and a half to compete for a playoff spot, but they ultimately fell short of returning to the postseason. One day after having those hopes dashed, I look for the Brewers to come out flat in Game 1 of this series with the San Diego Padres.
Clayton Richard is one of the most underrated starters in the game. He's 14-13 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 32 starts this season. He'll be up against Shaun Marcum, who is 3-1 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in seven home starts this year.
"It was amazing, the run that we went on to get into contention," said reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun, who has a career-high and NL-best 41 homers. "I think that we're all proud of that. Ultimately, we're disappointed we didn't end up back in the postseason, but it certainly wasn't for a lack of effort."
The Brewers were shut out 7-0 by the Houston Astros yesterday to seal their fate. "For us to come out and get shut out, that was probably the last thing that I thought would happen," manager Ron Roenicke said. "It's hard right now. To play as well as we did to get back in it, this was a very disappointing series."
Just by these comments, you can tell that Milwaukee is deflated right now. The Padres are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. National League Central. San Diego is 6-0 in Richard's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Padres are 4-0 in Richard's last 4 road starts. The Brewers are 1-7 in Marcum's last 8 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Padres Monday.
|10-01-12||Baltimore Orioles +120 v. Tampa Bay Rays||3-5||Loss||-100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +120
The Baltimore Orioles clinched a playoff spot yesterday, but now they have their sights set on winning the AL East division. They are tied with the New York Yankees atop the division with three games to play having won four straight games by a combined score of 31-9.
The Tampa Bay Rays are three games back of the Oakland A's for the final wild-card spot in the American League. That means they would have to win out while having the A's lose three in a row for a chance to get in. They realize their chances are slim to none for that to happen.
Wei-Yin Chen has been solid for Baltimore this season, going 12-10 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 31 starts. He'll be up against Alex Cobb, who has posted similar numbers at 10-9 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 22 starts.
I just believe the Orioles have the edge in motivation here, and a slight edge on the mound as well. Chen has posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in four starts against Tampa Bay this season. He pitched seven shutout innings of a 4-0 win at Tampa Bay in his last start there. Cobb gave up two earned runs and nine base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 2-3 loss to Baltimore in his lone start against the Orioles this season.
The Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Baltimore is 8-3 in Chen's last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Rays. Take Baltimore Monday.
|09-30-12||NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -1||17-19||Win||100||101 h 56 m||Show|
15* Giants/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia -1
The betting public is down on the Philadelphia Eagles after their bad loss at Arizona last week. As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set them as less than a field goal favorite at home against the New York Giants on NBC's Sunday Night Football. I'll gladly take advantage of this line value and back the home team in this one.
Philadelphia is still one of the best teams in the league. I know they have turned the ball over 12 times in three games already, but the fact that the Eagles are 2-1 right now really shows how good they are. I have no doubt that ball security will be of huge importance all week in practice, and I look for the Eagles to carry that over into the game.
Just look at the numbers and you can see that this is one of the best teams in the NFL, yet they aren't getting credit for it because of the turnovers. The Eagles rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 416.3 yards/game, and 5th in total defense at 275.7 yards/game. So they are outgaining opponents by roughly 141 yards/game.
Philly has the kind of defense that can slow down this Giants' offense. They tied for first in the league in sacks last season, and they made roster upgrades this offseason that have made them an improved stop unit in 2012.
New York gets too much credit for its defense. The fact of the matter is that the Giants rank just 18th in the league in total defense at 355.7 yards/game allowed. They have all kinds of issues in their secondary, and I look for Vick and these playmakers to exploit it.
The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Giants. Philly is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NFC East opponents. The Eagles are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 following a loss of 21 points or more. This trend just goes to show how resilient they have been under Andy Reid. They are 12-3 ATS off a loss of 21 points or more with Reid at the helm. Take the Eagles Sunday.
|09-30-12||Miami Dolphins +6.5 v. Arizona Cardinals||21-24||Win||100||97 h 32 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami +6.5
The Arizona Cardinals are getting way too much respect for their 3-0 start. There's no question it has been impressive, but now is the time to fade them while they're perception of being a great team is very high in the eyes of the betting public, and thus the oddsmakers.
Arizona is coming off wins over the Patriots and Eagles the last two weeks, which sets them up for a huge letdown here with 1-2 Miami coming into town. But the Dolphins are a much better team than they get credit for, and they should be 2-1.
The Dolphins dominated the Raiders 35-13 at home in Week 2, and they should have beaten the Jets last week. Dan Carpenter missed two field goals, including a potential game-winner in overtime, letting the Jets escape with a 23-20 overtime victory.
Even their 10-30 loss at Houston in their opener wasn't as big of a blowout as the score would indicate. This was a 3-3 game with less than two minutes to go before half, but the Texans converted three turnovers into three quick touchdowns before the break to pull away.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see how this is a more evenly matched game than the spread would indicate. Miami's offense has actually been very good this season as it is averaging 369 total yards/game. Arizona's offense is only putting up 263.3 yards/game, and it cannot sustain this kind of success with those woeful offensive numbers.
The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Arizona is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Bet the Dolphins Friday.
|09-30-12||New England Patriots -4 v. Buffalo Bills||Top||52-28||Win||100||94 h 49 m||Show|
25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -4
The New England Patriots have lost two straight heartbreakers by a combined three points. There's no question they are going to come out extremely hungry in Week 4 against the Buffalo Bulls, and I look for them to take care of business in blowout fashion given the situation.
The Patriots haven't lost three straight since 2002, so this has been an extremely resilient team in the Bill Belichick era. While the Patriots did blow a 21-point lead in a 31-34 loss at Buffalo last season, they certainly have the Bills' number to say the least.
New England has won 16 of the last 17 meetings with the Bills, including a 49-21 home victory in the rematch last season as it avenged the earlier 3-point loss. Fourteen of those 16 wins have come by 5 points or more in this series.
Buffalo doesn't have an impressive win yet. It lost 28-48 to the New York Jets in its opener, and its two victories have come against lowly Kansas City and Cleveland, two teams with a combined 1-6 record. The Bills are not ready to take that next step and beat a team like the Patriots in this spot.
The Pats are 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. New England is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games following a S.U. loss. The Patriots are 51-24-3 ATS in their last 78 road games. The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
|09-30-12||San Francisco 49ers v. NY Jets +4.5||34-0||Loss||-110||93 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +4.5
The San Francisco 49ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. Also, the books are putting too much stock on the injury to Darrelle Revis. As a result, the New York Jets are showing tremendous value at home in Week 4.
There's no question that San Francisco is one of the better teams in the league. However, I believe after making the NFC Championship game last season, and opening 2-0, they are getting too much love. The 49ers showed they were vulnerable with a 13-24 loss at Minnesota last week.
These are two very similar teams that like to pound the rock on offense, while relying on two of the best defenses in the league. I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle which certainly favors the home underdog catching more than a field goal in this one. I look for the Jets to come together as a team and take it personal that they are a dog at home, largely due to Revis' absence.
"This is a team game, and as a team, we've got to step it up," Ryan said. "I think we'll respond. We certainly have to accept the challenge, and we're going to come out and compete. We might do it a little differently, but we're certainly going to give it our best shot, without question."
"Everybody's got to step up," Ryan said. "Whatever it takes, that's what we're going to do. We have enough to get it done here. ... This football team is a bunch of competitors. We will find a way to get this done."
New York rolled in its first home game, topping Buffalo 48-28 in the season opener. After two tough road games at Pittsburgh and Miami where they split 1-1, I look for them to come out with another great effort in front of their home fans.
The 49ers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in September. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Roll with the Jets Sunday.
|09-30-12||Carolina Panthers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons||28-30||Win||100||93 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +7
The Carolina Panthers have opened 1-2 after falling to the New York Giants in embarrassing fashion last Thursday. With a couple extra days of rest and essentially their playoff hopes on the line, I look for the Panthers to put forth their best effort of the season against NFC South rival Atlanta Sunday.
There's no denying that the Falcons have been impressive en route to their 3-0 start. However, with success comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers and betting public, and as a result the books have set this number too high. This is a letdown spot for the Falcons, and they won't be ready for the effort they get from Carolina Sunday.
Carolina could get three players back who missed the Giants contest. Head coach Ron Rivera expects running back Jonathan Stewart, offensive tackle Byron Bell and linebacker Thomas Davis to play, with Bell and Davis returning to practice Monday.
"It is a divisional game, but the truth is, your biggest game is the one you are about to play," Rivera said. "I guess as far as the record goes and being in our division, yes it means a lot, it is a big game."
This play falls into a system that is 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against home teams (ATLANTA) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers. The Falcons have been fortunate in the turnover department to say the least, and that can't last. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|09-29-12||Oregon State v. Arizona -2||38-35||Loss||-110||71 h 48 m||Show|
15* Oregon State/Arizona CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2
The Arizona Wildcats should be a much bigger home favorite Saturday against the Oregon State Beavers. The Wildcats had every chance to make it a game against Oregon early last week, but they eventually fell 0-49 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. As a result, this team is undervalued heading into Week 5.
Arizona managed a respectable 332 total yards on the Ducks, but it committed five turnovers and and wasted several red zone opportunities. Looking to redeem themselves, the Wildcats will come out hungry when they return home Saturday.
The Wildcats have been dominant at home this season, going 3-0 with impressive wins over Toledo and Oklahoma State. They are scoring 46.3 points/game at home this year while allowing only 18.3 points/game.
Oregon State is getting way too much respect for its 10-7 win over Wisconsin and its 27-20 victory over UCLA. This is the perfect time to fade the Beavers with the love they are getting from oddsmakers and the betting public after last week's results.
This play falls into a system that is 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON ST) - excellent passing team (>=275 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-275 PY/game), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. Plus, Oregon State is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 September road games. Roll with Arizona Saturday.
|09-29-12||Texas Tech v. Iowa State +3||24-13||Loss||-105||68 h 49 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +3
The Iowa State Cyclones should not be an underdog at home to the Texas Tech Red Raiders in their Big 12 opener Saturday. Paul Rhoads is one of the best head coaches in the country, and he always gets the most out of his teams. That was evidenced last year when the Cyclones pulled off the upset of the season with a 37-31 home victory in double overtime over then-No. 2 Oklahoma State.
Rhoads has these Cyclones off to an impressive 3-0 start despite playing a tough schedule. Iowa State has already been an underdog twice, beating Tulsa 38-23 at home as a 1.5-point underdog, and going on the road to beat Iowa 9-6 as a 3.5-point dog. This team is much better than it gets credit for.
Unlike Iowa State, Texas Tech has not played anybody en route to its 3-0 start. The Red Raiders have stomped Northwestern State, Texas State and New Mexico in their first three games. They won't be prepared for the test they are going to get from the Cyclones Saturday. Iowa State is clearly battle-tested and ready to go.
The Cyclones have been sharp offensively, scoring 28.0 points while averaging 429.0 yards/game. They have one of the most underrated defenses in the land. Their stop unit is yielding 10.7 points/game and 280.0 total yards/game. I can't emphasize enough that they have played a tough schedule to this point, which makes these numbers all that more impressive.
All you have to do is look at recent history to realize that the Cyclones are always undervalued in this series. Iowa State beat Texas Tech 41-7 on the road last year as a 15.5-point underdog, which followed a 52-38 home victory over the Red Raiders in 2010 as a 6.5-point dog. Oddsmakers clearly haven't done their homework.
This play falls into a system that is 33-5 (86.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (TEXAS TECH) - with an incredible defense - allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game.
The Cyclones are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 conference games. Texas Tech is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite. The Cyclones are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|09-29-12||Florida International +7 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||20-48||Loss||-110||68 h 48 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +7
Florida International should not be catching a touchdown against Louisiana-Lafayette Saturday. I picked FIU to win the Sun Belt, and after a slow start, this team is clearly going under the radar. The Panthers returned 17 starters from a team that went 8-5 last year. There's still no doubt in my mind that this is the most talented team in the conference, and that will show on the field this weekend.
Florida International has opened 1-3, but it is due to a very tough schedule. All three of their losses have been as an underdog at Duke, at UCF and home against Louisville. Those aren't bad losses, and they even covered the spread in two of those games against UCF and Louisville.
FIU wants revenge from a 31-36 home loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as a 16.5-point favorite last year. The Panthers still have all of their goals in front of them as this will be their Sun Belt opener, and after playing a tough non-conference schedule, they are battle-tested coming in.
The Panthers lost starting quarterback Jake Medlock in the second quarter of a 21-28 loss to Louisville last week. That may have been a blessing in disguise considering talented freshman E.J. Hilliard got a chance to take his place. Hilliard played like a seasoned vet, completing 9 of 10 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. He is the quarterback of the future here, and he's ready now.
Lafayette is a quality team, but it clearly has some holes after a 24-65 loss at Oklahoma State last time out. The Cowboys racked up a ridiculous 742 total yards on the Rajin' Cajuns while limiting them to 376. Their two wins came against Troy and Lamar, which is unimpressive to say the least.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Lafayette is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Rajin' Cajuns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%). The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Take Florida International.
|09-29-12||Toledo v. Western Michigan +1||37-17||Loss||-110||68 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Michigan +1
The Toledo Rockets have no business being favored at Western Michigan Saturday. I know that the Broncos will be without starting quarterback Alex Carder, but as you'll see if you keep reading, it won't matter.
Western Michigan is hungry to avenge its 63-66 loss at Toledo last season. I picked the Broncos to win the MAC this season, and I still believe they are the best team in this conference. That will show on the field Saturday as they destroy the Rockets with revenge in mind.
The Broncos came into the season with 14 returning starters, while the Rockets came in as one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back. The Broncos have been tested early, which will only help them entering conference play.
WMU has already played the likes of Illinois and Minnesota, as well as Connecticut at home. They have gotten through that brutal schedule at 2-2. Carder went out with an injury in their 30-24 win over UConn last week, and junior Tyler VanTubbergen took his place while helping the Broncos hold onto the victory.
VanTubbergen will be dominant next season as a senior, but he has been given a great opportunity to lead the team with Carder out for at least the next few games. VanTubbergen started in place of an injured Carder against Akron last season, and he completed 19 of 21 passes (90%) for 252 yards with a whopping six touchdowns! It's safe to say that WMU is in good hands with this guy under center against the Rockets Saturday.
Toledo has opened 3-1 this season against a pretty soft schedule, and it is getting too much respect because of it. The Rockets lost at Toledo 17-24 in their opener, then followed that up with three lackluster victories over Wyoming (34-31), Bowling Green 27-15, and Coastal Carolina (38-28).
VanTubbergen is in line for a monster game against a Toledo defense that ranks 116th in the country against the pass (325.3 yards/game). The Rockets are giving up 483 yards/game against a weak schedule thus far, while the Broncos are yielding a respectable 353.5 yards/game against a tougher schedule. Coastal Carolina even threw for 356 yards on Toledo last week.
Toledo is 11-25 ATS in its last 25 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. The Rockets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet Western Michigan Saturday.
|09-29-12||Arizona State v. California -1||27-17||Loss||-110||65 h 49 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California -1
California is one of the best home teams in the country. In fact, they have the second-best home-field advantage of all teams in the six BCS conferences dating back to 1989. The Bears should be a much heavier favorite Saturday against the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Cal is going under the radar right now because of its 1-3 start. But when you look at the schedule, it's easy to see why the Bears don't have more wins through three games. They lost to a very good Nevada team in their opener, and their last two games have come on the road against Ohio State and USC.
The Bears actually played both teams tough, losing 28-35 at Ohio State, and 9-27 at USC. It's safe to say that this team is battle-tested and hungry for a win when they return home Saturday for face an overrated Sun Devils team.
ASU is off to a 3-1 start, but it has played a much easier schedule. All three of their wins have come at home against Northern Arizona, Illinois and Utah. Their lone loss came on the road 20-24 at Missouri against a Tigers team that was playing without their starting quarterback.
Cal has won four straight and eight of its last nine meetings with Arizona State. The Bears won 50-17, 24-14, 49-21 and 27-0 in their last four home meetings with the Sun Devils. It's safe to say that Cal has ASU's number in this series, especially at home.
The Bears are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home games. The Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in California dating back to 1997. Bet the Bears Saturday.
|09-29-12||Tennessee v. Georgia UNDER 61.5||Top||44-51||Loss||-110||96 h 47 m||Show|
25* SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Tennessee/Georgia UNDER 61.5
Georgia beat Tennessee 20-12 on the road last season for 32 combined points. The Bulldogs put up 366 total yards, while the Vols were held to 284 yards. I look for a similar low-scoring affair in the rematch in 2012 as both teams return a ton of starters from last season.
Georgia remains one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are giving up just 16.5 points and 343.2 yards/game despite playing without several starters on defense at different times this season. Both safety Bacarri Rambo (55 tackles, 8 INT in 2011) and linebacker Alec Ogletree (52 tackles, 7.5 for loss in 2011) are expected to return Saturday.
Georgia's defense has steadily improved as the season has wore on, and it gave up only a field goal in a 48-3 victory over Vanderbilt last week. Tennessee has nine starters back on defense from last year's team, and there's no question this is an improved unit.
The UNDER is 33-12-1 in Bulldogs last 46 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Tennessee is 40-22 to the UNDER after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Georgia.
All you have to do is look at the history of this series to realize this total has been inflated. 15 of the last 17 meetings in this series have seen 57 or less combined points. That makes for a 15-2 (88%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|09-29-12||Minnesota v. Iowa -7||13-31||Win||100||61 h 50 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -7
The Iowa Hawkeyes have not gotten off to the start they wanted to this season. However, even at 2-2, they still have all of their goals ahead of them. They open their Big Ten schedule Saturday looking for revenge against a Minnesota team that has beaten them each of the last two years.
This is a huge rivalry between these schools, and there's no question that if Iowa had a better record right now, it would be a much bigger favorite. The Hawkeyes blew a 21-10 fourth quarter lead to the Gophers last season to lose 21-22 as a 14.5-point favorite.
There's no question these players have a sour taste in their mouths from that loss, and after blowing a 31-23 lead against Central Michigan over the final 45 seconds to lose 31-32. They allowed a touchdown, and then after the Chippewas recovered an onside kick, they marched down and kicked a game-winning 47-yard field goal.
Iowa will be giving its best effort of the season in front of a rowdy crowd at Kinnick Stadium. I believe the Gophers come in overrated after their 4-0 start because they really haven't played a worthy opponent yet. Their lone road win came in overtime against a terrible UNLV team by a final of 30-27. Because of these two team's records, this is a very soft line coming in and we're going to capitalize.
The home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. The Hawkeyes are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. loss, so this has been a very resilient team through the years. Iowa is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home meetings with Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7 to 10 points. Take Iowa Saturday.
|09-28-12||Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5||0-8||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-123)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won two straight to get within three games of the St. Louis Cardinals for the final wild-card spot in the National League. They have scored a combined 16 runs over the past two days, and I look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight in Game 1 of this series with Colorado.
Ace Clayton Kershaw won't need much run support to win this game by 2 runs or more. The 2011 NL Cy Young winner has been dominant once again in 2012. He is 12-9 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 31 starts, 7-5 with a 2.25 ERA in 17 home starts, and he has posted a 0.95 ERA in his last three outings.
Colorado's Jeff Francis is no match for Kershaw. The left-hander is 5-6 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in his last three.
Kershaw is 15-2 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are winning by an average of 2.3 runs/game in this spot. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.
|09-28-12||Los Angeles Angels +100 v. Texas Rangers||7-4||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* Angels/Rangers AL Friday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +100
This is a must-win for the Los Angeles Angels as they trail the Oakland A's by two games for the final wild-card spot in the American League. The Angels have won five of their last six, and I believe they have a huge edge on the mound in this one.
Ace Jered Weaver gets the ball for the Angels. The Cy Young contender is 19-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his last three starts when the stakes have been at the highest.
Ryan Dempster has not been nearly as good in the American League since he was traded to the Rangers from the Chicago Cubs before the deadline. He has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his last three starts. Dempster has really struggled in two starts against Los Angeles, going 0-1 with a 14.63 ERA and 2.625 WHIP while allowing 13 earned runs and 21 base runners over 8 innings.
Weaver is 14-2 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 8-1 in Weaver's last 9 road starts. Los Angeles is 21-6 in its last 27 during game 1 of a series. The Angels are 9-3 in Weaver's last 12 starts vs. Rangers. Roll with the Angels Friday.
|09-28-12||Hawaii v. BYU -27.5||Top||0-47||Win||100||53 h 56 m||Show|
20* Hawaii/BYU Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU -27.5
This game simply screams blowout. BYU is pissed about losing two straight heartbreakers to Utah and Boise State on the road by a combined 4 points. I look for the Cougars to take out their frustration on National TV against a hapless Hawaii team when they return home Friday.
Hawaii is clearly down this season as evidenced by its 10-49 loss at USC, and its 24-69 home loss to Nevada last Saturday. The Warriors gave up 575 total yards to the Wolf Pack, including 355 on the ground.
BYU is a team that prefers to run the football, and it should have similar success on the ground that Nevada did last week. After committing five turnovers last week in a 6-7 loss at Boise State, including three interceptions, I look for the Cougars to get back to ground and pound and run it right down Hawaii's throats.
I've seen BYU play a couple times this season, and there's no question in my mind that it has one of the best defenses in the land. Despite playing a tough schedule, the Cougars rank 7th in the country in total defense, giving up 68.8 yards on the ground and 177.3 yards through the air. This stop unit won't give an inch Friday.
The Cougars won at Hawaii 41-20 last year in their regular season finale, outgaining the Warriors 530-299 for the game. I believe the Warriors have taken a step back this season, and I expect an even bigger blowout at home this time around. Hawaii doesn't travel well, and it will be working on two less days' rest considering the Cougars played last Thursday, and the Warriors played on Saturday.
BYU is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC opponents. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Cougars. Bet BYU Friday.
|09-27-12||Los Angeles Dodgers -115 v. San Diego Padres||8-4||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -115
It's now or never for the Los Angeles Dodgers. After winning 8-2 last night over the Padres, they now trail the St. Louis Cardinals by 3.5 games for the final wild-card spot in the National League with seven games to play. They have a chance to pull within 3 with a victory tonight as the Cardinals have the day off.
I like the Dodgers' chances of beating San Diego again with Chris Capuano on the mound. The left-hander is 11-11 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 31 starts this season. Capuano has posted a 3.86 ERA in 10 career starts against the Padres, and he pitched 6 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run in his last start against them on July 15th.
San Diego's Casey Kelly is no match for Capuano in this one. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in five starts this season. Kelly has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA and 2.054 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 26 base runners over 12 2/3 innings.
The Dodgers are 6-0 in Capuano's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Capuano's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with the Dodgers Thursday.
|09-27-12||Stanford -6 v. Washington||13-17||Loss||-110||30 h 56 m||Show|
15* Stanford/Washington ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Stanford -6
The Stanford Cardinal continue to go under the radar after the departure of Heisman Trophy winner Andrew Luck. What most folks don't realize is that Stanford still has a lot of talent, as evidenced by the fact that head coach David Shaw brought in the fifth-best recruiting class in 2012.
This team had a ton of talent left over from last year's team that went 11-2 and made it to the Fiesta Bowl. Shaw welcomed back 13 starters and 61 lettermen from that squad, and the Cardinal have opened 3-0 this season.
After beating San Jose State and Duke, the Cardinal proved they were for real with a 21-14 victory over then-No. 2 USC as a 9.5-point underdog. Their defense limited the high-powered Trojans offense to just 380 total yards, including 26 on the ground on 28 carries. The offense put up 417 yards on a very good USC defense, too.
Quarterback Josh Nunes has filled in nicely for Luck, throwing for 615 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions through three games. Don't forget, the Cardinal have 2011 leading rusher Stepfan Taylor back, and he has rushed for 338 yards and three scores.
Stanford has one of the best defenses in the country. It ranks 26th in the land in total defense, including 1st against the run (41.7 yards/game). The Cardinal have one of the best front 7's in the land and it will cause Washington fits all game.
The Huskies are 2-1 this season, but their two wins came at home against San Diego State 21-12 and Portland State 52-13. Washington's true colors showed in a 3-41 loss at LSU in Week 2. It managed just 183 total yards against the Tigers, and it won't be able to move the ball with any consistency against this Stanford defense, either.
Washington's defense is in for a long day. It has had injuries to several starters this season, especially along the front seven. That's a big reason why the Huskies rank 80th in the country in run defense, allowing 174.7 yards/game despite playing a pretty soft schedule.
Stanford simply owns Washington, winning four straight and six of the last seven meetings. The Cardinal won 65-21, 41-0, 34-14 and 35-28 in the last four meetings, respectively. While I don't expect another 40-plus point victory for a third straight year, I do believe the Cardinal easily cover this small number tonight.
The Cardinal are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Stanford is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings at Washington. The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons. Stanford is 9-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. These eight trends combine for a 44-0 system backing the Cardinal. Take Stanford Thursday.
|09-27-12||Cleveland Browns +12 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||16-23||Win||100||30 h 33 m||Show|
20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +12
The Cleveland Browns have opened the season 0-3 with three straight losses by 10 points or less. This is a must-win for Cleveland, and I fully expect it to brings its best effort for the field Thursday against the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore is coming off a huge 31-30 home victory over the New England Patriots on NBC's Sunday Night Football in Week 3. That win sets the Ravens up for a big letdown spot tonight against the Browns. The Ravens have been prone to letdowns over the years, and this is the perfect spot for one. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
In their final meeting last season, Cleveland went into Baltimore as a 12.5-point underdog and lost by a final of 14-20. This was a very evenly matched game as the Browns totaled 256 yards, while the Ravens had 284.
Seneca Wallace was the starter for Cleveland in that one, and the Browns have certainly upgraded this offseason with Brandon Weeden as their new starting quarterback. Cleveland's defense limited Joe Flacco to 11 of 24 passing for 132 yards last season in that 14-20 loss.
With an underrated defense and an improved offense, the Browns are going to be much more competitive as the year goes on. Like I said, their first three losses have come by 10 points or less, and they are getting no love from oddsmakers in this contest.
Baltimore's defense gets way too much credit. The Ravens are clearly getting older, and they miss 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs. They rank 27th in the league in total defense, allowing 401.3 yards/game through three contests.
This play falls into a system that is 54-23 (70.1%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
The Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North opponents. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Browns. Bet Cleveland Thursday.
|09-26-12||Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -134||Top||3-4||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
20* Mariners/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -134
The Los Angeles Angels sit just two games behind Oakland and 2.5 games behind Baltimore for the two wild-card spots in the American League. They have won four straight and 19 of their last 26 to put themselves in great position with only eight games to play.
Seattle has lost six of its last eight and has nothing to play for. It will send Felix Hernandez to the mound tonight. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts. Hernandez is 0-2 with a 5.75 ERA in three starts against the Angels in 2012, allowing five runs in each of those outings.
C.J. Wilson is 12-10 with a 3.82 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in his last three starts. The left-hander is 5-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 11 career starts against Seattle. Wilson is 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts against the Mariners, allowing just three earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.
Los Angeles is 15-3 after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games this season. The Angels are 18-2 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 0-4 in Hernandez's last 4 starts. Seattle is 1-7 in Hernandez's last 8 road starts vs. Angels. Bet the Angels Wednesday.
|09-26-12||St. Louis Cardinals v. Houston Astros +1.5||0-2||Win||110||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +1.5 (+110)
I know the Houston Astros own the worst record in baseball. However, I fully expect them to try and play the role of spoiler tonight against St. Louis. I like their chances of staying within one run or winning the game outright with Bud Norris on the mound.
Norris has been spectacular at home, going 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.040 WHIP with 75 strikeouts over 66 1/3 innings in 10 home starts this year. He also has St. Louis' number, going 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cardinals.
Chris Carpenter just recently returned from the disabled list after missing all of the season up to this point. He wants to try and help the Cardinals down the stretch and into the postseason, but he's simply cannot be his old self just yet. Carpenter lasted just five innings of a 4-5 loss to Chicago on September 21st in his 2012 debut.
St. Louis is 1-7 after 4 or more consecutive wins this season. Carpenter is 1-8 against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons, and the Cards are losing in this spot 2.6 to 4.6 on average. Carpenter is 0-6 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive team wins over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.
|09-26-12||Miami Marlins +135 v. Atlanta Braves||0-3||Loss||-100||7 h 13 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +135
The Atlanta Braves just clinched a playoff spot last night with a 2-run walk-off home run from Freddie Freeman for a 4-3 victory over the Marlins. After achieving their goal, the Braves are in a huge letdown spot tonight against Miami. I believe the Marlins are showing great value because of it.
Ace Josh Johnson gets the ball for the Marlins. He has posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 30 starts this season, including a 3.60 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three. Johnson is 6-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 18 career starts against Atlanta, so he certainly loves facing this team.
Paul Maholm has posted a 3.87 ERA in 29 starts this season, including a 6.55 ERA in his last two which resulted in Atlanta losses to the Brewers and Marlins. Maholm is 4-5 with a 4.89 ERA in 10 career starts against Miami.
Miami is 14-6 in Johnson's last 20 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Atlanta is 2-7 in home games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games this season. The Marlins are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Marlins Wednesday.
|09-25-12||Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-105||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-105)
The Los Angeles Angels (84-69) have won three straight and seven of 10 to pull within two games over the Oakland A's for the AL's final wild-card spot. Six of those seven victories have come by 2 runs or more, and I fully expect Los Angeles to win by multiple runs in Game 1 of this series against Seattle (72-81) Tuesday.
Zach Greinke gets the ball for the Angels, and he's 14-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 32 starts this season. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 14 home starts, and 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.772 ERA in his last three outings.
Greinke is 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in nine career starts against Seattle. This guy loves facing the Mariners, and he has been unstoppable at home, which you will see with the following trends.
Greinke is 27-4 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons, and his teams are winning by 2.3 runs/game in this spot. Greinke is 17-1 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons, and his teams are winning by 2.7 runs/game in this situation. Greinke is 17-0 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, and his teams have won by 3.1 runs/game on average. Bet the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.
|09-24-12||Green Bay Packers -3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||Top||12-14||Loss||-100||170 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are getting way too much credit for their home field in this one. If the Cowboys were favored by 3.5 at Seattle last week, the Packers should be at least a 6 to 7-point favorite in Week 2.
There's no question the Seahawks have great fans, but the fact of the matter is that the Packers are simply the better team, and that will show on the field Monday. Green Bay knows it cannot afford to fall to 1-2, so it won't be taking the Seahawks lightly.
The Packers are simply the better team on both sides of the ball. Their defense answered the bell last week in a 23-10 victory over the Bears. They allowed only 168 total yards, forced four interceptions of Jay Cutler, and sacked him seven times. This stop unit will have its way with a Seattle offense that is only putting up 284 total yards per game.
Green Bay has won six of the last seven meetings in this series, scoring 23 or more points in all seven contests. The last three have been blowout victories by Green Bay by finals of 48-10, 27-17, an 42-20. They have outscored the Seahawks 117-47 in those three contests, averaging 39 points while giving up 15.7 points.
This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on favorites (GREEN BAY) - off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night.
The Packers are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall. The Seahawks are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Seattle is 9-21-1 ATS in its last 31 games following a S.U. win. The Packers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Head coach Mike McCarthy is 9-1 ATS in road games after a 2 game home stand as the coach of Green Bay. Bet the Packers Monday.
|09-24-12||St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros||6-1||Win||100||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-124)
The St. Louis Cardinals sit 2.5 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the final wild-card spot in the National League. They want to clinch that spot as soon as possible, and they'll have an excellent chance of doing that starting with Game 1 of this series against the lowly Houston Astros.
St. Louis (82-71) is closing out strong against this season, just as it did last year en route to winning the World Series. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games overall. Houston (50-103) owns the worst record in baseball and I'll gladly fade the Astros here Monday.
The Cards have a huge edge on the mound behind Lance Lynn, who is 16-7 with a 3.79 ERA this season, including 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in his last two starts. Lynn has allowed just one earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in those two outings. He is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three career starts against Houston, and the Cards have won by finals of 9-2, 14-2 and 5-0 in those three contests.
Fernando Abad is one of the worst starters in baseball. He has gone 0-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in five starts and 30 relief appearances. In those five starts, Abad is 0-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.982 WHIP. In two home starts, he's 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 2.350 WHIP.
Lynn is 12-1 against the money line against division opponents this season, and the Cards are winning by an average of 4.1 runs/game in this spot. Houston is 7-37 against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 this season, losing by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Monday.
|09-24-12||Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5||2-6||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115)
After losing two games of a double-header against Minnesota yesterday, the Tigers now find themselves one game behind the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central lead with 10 games to play. With ace Justin Verlander on the mound tonight, I have them bouncing back to win by multiple runs over the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series.
Verlander, the 2011 AL Cy Young and AL MVP winner, won't let his team down with what's at stake. The right-hander is 15-8 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in 14 home starts. Verlander is 14-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 22 career starts against Kansas City.
He'll be opposed by Luke Hochevar, who is one of the worst starters in the league. The right-hander is 8-14 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 30 starts this season. Hochevar is 4-5 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in 11 career starts against Detroit. In his lone start against the Tigers this season, Hochevar gave up nine earned runs and 15 base runners over four innings of a 3-9 loss at Detroit on May 1st.
Verlander is 20-3 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are winning by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with Detroit on the Run Line Monday.
|09-23-12||New England Patriots +3 v. Baltimore Ravens||30-31||Win||100||146 h 49 m||Show|
15* Pats/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +3
Rarely will you ever get the New England Patriots as an underdog, and it's time to take advantage Sunday night. That's especially the case when they are coming off a loss. There's no question New England is going to be highly motivated in this one after a poor performance at home against the Cardinals.
I know Baltimore is going to want revenge after losing in the AFC Championship game last year, but it simply should not be the favorite in this one. I have no doubt that the Patriots have the stronger team, and the numbers certainly show that through the first two weeks.
New England is averaging 388 total yards per game to Baltimore's 377. The biggest advantage the Patriots have is on defense. They have allowed only 264 total yards per game as they are clearly improved on this side of the ball in 2012. Meanwhile, the Ravens have yielded 404 total yards per game, and there's no question they are missing 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs.
New England has simply dominated this series, winning eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. That includes a 4-1 record in five meetings since 2007.
The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by an average of 17.8 points/game.
The Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. loss. New England is 50-24-3 ATS in its last 77 road games. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|09-23-12||Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 v. Oakland Raiders||31-34||Loss||-100||142 h 48 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -4.5
The Oakland Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league in 2012. They lost at home 14-22 to the San Diego Chargers, then went on the road and lost to the Miami Dolphins by a final of 13-35. I look for the Steelers to dominate the Raiders in this one as well.
The Dolphins racked up 452 total yards on the Raiders. Darren McFadden has done nothing thus far for Oakland. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in rushing at 34 yards per game and 2.0/carry. If they couldn't run on San Diego and Miami, they definitely won't be able to run on Pittsburgh.
The Steelers bounced back nicely with a 27-10 victory over the New York Jets last week. They know they cannot afford to drop to 1-2, so they will not be taking the Raiders lightly. Pittsburgh finished No. 1 in the league in total defense last season, and it has only given up 276 total yards per game through two contests this season.
This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
Pittsburgh won the last meeting between these teams 35-3 at home in 2010. It outgained the Raiders 431-182 for the game in a dominant effort on both sides of the ball. I expect a similar result in this one.
The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Oakland is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Raiders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|09-23-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Washington Redskins -3.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-110||138 h 24 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Redskins -3.5
The Washington Redskins are showing great value as a small home favorite over the Cincinnati Bengals. After blowout a 21-6 lead to St. Louis last week, the Redskins are going to be highly motivated when they head back to Washington for their first home game of the season.
Robert Griffin III is clearly the real deal, and Washington fans will pack the seats as he makes his home debut Sunday. He'll be up against a Cincinnati team that has been atrocious defensively this season.
The Browns gave up 44 points to the Ravens in Week 1, then 27 points to the lowly Cleveland Browns in Week 2. They also gave up 439 total yards to Cleveland. They have given up 35.5 points and 434 yards per game through two contests.
The Bengals are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Cincinnati is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Bengals are 0-4-3 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
|09-22-12||Clemson v. Florida State -14||37-49||Loss||-102||98 h 33 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Florida State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -14
I picked Florida State to be the 2012-13 national champion in college football. The Seminoles have done nothing to sway my opinion. They have outscored their first three opponents 176-3, which includes a 52-0 victory over ACC foe Wake Forest last week.
Sure, Clemson presents a much tougher challenge, but the Seminoles will be hungry for revenge after falling to the Tigers on the road 30-35 last season. Remember, starting QB E.J. Manuel did not play in that game, which was probably the difference.
With 17 starters, 68 lettermen, and arguably the most talented roster in the entire country back, I fully expect the Seminoles to roll by two-plus touchdowns in the rematch at home this time around.
There's no doubt that Clemson has an explosive offense, but so does Florida State. The Seminoles are averaging 58.7 points and 544 total yards per game, and that's even with resting their starters in the second half of each of their first three contests.
The difference in this game is going to be defense. FSU is giving up 1.0 points/game and 103 total yards/game, and this is the best defense in the country in my opinion. Clemson has plenty of holes defensively as it is giving up 369 total yards/game. The Tigers have been extremely vulnerable on the ground, yielding 181 yards/game and 4.8/carry.
Ball State put up 380 total yards against Clemson two weeks ago, and Furman finished with 352 total yards last week. I know FSU has played a soft schedule, but Ball State and Furman aren't exactly powerhouses! E.J. Manuel being healthy this time around, FSU having by far the more dominant defense, and the revenge factor will lead to a blowout victory for the Seminoles at home.
This play falls into a system that is 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against a road team (CLEMSON) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Take Florida State Saturday.
|09-22-12||Kansas State v. Oklahoma -14||24-19||Loss||-108||97 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -14
This is a complete mismatch in every sense of the word. That was on display last year as Oklahoma won at Kansas State 58-17 as a 13-point favorite. The Sooners outgained the Wildcats 690-240 for the game, and I expect a similar blowout at home this time around in 2012.
Both teams return a similar amount of talent. I believe the Wildcats are overrated, while the Sooners are a legitimate national title contender. Oklahoma has a big advantage as it comes in with an extra week to prepare after having last week off. Meanwhile, Kansas State is coming off a lackluster 35-21 home win over North Texas as a 27-point favorite. The Wildcats only outgained the Mean Green by 20 yards in that contest.
Collin Klein is an excellent leader for Kansas State, but he's simply asked to do too much. He was very ineffective against Oklahoma last season, and that will be the case again in this rematch. Klein was held to 8 of 16 passing for 58 yards, and 92 rushing yards on 26 carries in their 17-58 loss to the Sooners last season.
Landry Jones had his way with the Kansas State secondary last season, throwing for 505 yards and five touchdowns. Expect Jones to have another big day against this soft K-State secondary, while Klein once again struggles against an Oklahoma defense that is giving up just 10.0 points and 245 total yards per game.
Opposing quarterbacks from the likes of North Texas, Miami, and Missouri State are completing 67.3 percent of their passes for an average of 251 yards per game through the air against the Wildcats' secondary. You can only imagine what a Heisman Trophy candidate like Jones is going to do to this K-State defensive backfield.
Oklahoma is 62-8 in its last 70 meetings with Kansas State dating back to 1935. It has won five straight in this series all by double-digits. The Sooners are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
|09-22-12||Michigan v. Notre Dame -5.5||Top||6-13||Win||100||97 h 6 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Notre Dame Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -5.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish badly want revenge from their 31-35 road loss to Michigan last year. The Irish led 24-7 going into the fourth quarter, but they simply unraveled. The Wolverines scored 28 points in the fourth quarter, including a game-winning 16-yard touchdown pass from Denard Robinson to Roy Roundree with only 2 seconds left.
There's no question that the Irish have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason, and you can bet they'll give 100% effort for four quarters while not letting off the gas. Notre Dame gets Michigan at home this time around, only adding to their advantage.
I have been really impressed with Notre Dame en route to a 3-0 start. They just beat a good Michigan State team on the road last week 20-3, and I expect a similar blowout against a Michigan team that is not as good as it was a year ago.
The Wolverines were overmatched in a 14-41 loss to Alabama in their opener, and they were equally unimpressive in a 31-25 home victory over Air Force in Week 2 as a 21.5-point favorite. Sure, they beat UMass 63-13 last week, but both UConn and Indiana pulled off similar blowouts over the Minutemen, so that's not saying much.
Notre Dame's biggest advantage here is a run defense that has only allowed 96 yards/game and 3.0/carry on the ground. That's impressive considering they've played three very good rushing teams in Navy, Purdue and Michigan State. There's no question Michigan is going to try to run it with Denard Robinson and Fitzgerald Touissant, but I believe the Irish will be up to the task.
The Wolverines haven't been able to stop anyone on the ground, giving up 211 rushing yards/game and 4.3/carry. I look for Notre Dame's Cierre Wood, who returned from a two-game suspension last week, to have a huge day on the ground against this soft Michigan run defense.
Michigan is 1-10 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|09-22-12||Miami (Fla) v. Georgia Tech -14||42-36||Loss||-110||64 h 25 m||Show|
15* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -14
After losing three straight to Miami in this series, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets want revenge Saturday. I believe they get it and roll by two-plus touchdowns at home to really make a statement and erase three years of frustration in this series.
Georgia Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country. I was really impressed with the Yellow Jackets in a 17-20 loss in overtime at Virginia Tech in their opener. They responded with a 59-3 home victory over Presbyterian, then followed that up with an emphatic 56-20 home win over Virginia as a 10-point favorite.
The Yellow Jackets have been running wild on teams, averaging 374 yards on the ground and 6.9/carry. They are also a better passing team these days, averaging 157 yards per game through the air and 11.2/attempt. They have the best offensive line they've ever had in the Paul Johnson era, and almost all of their key skill players are back from last year. This offense is explosive to say the least.
I really like the improvement I've seen from Georgia Tech's defense, and I believe this is the best stop unit that Johnson has ever had. The Yellow Jackets are giving up just 14.3 points per game and 289 total yards per game. They'll have their way with this Miami offense.
The Hurricanes are clearly in rebuilding mode, and that was evident with their 13-52 loss at Kansas State in Week 2. They managed just 262 total yards of offense in that contest, and they gave up 498 total yards to the Wildcats. They yielded 542 total yards against Boston College the week before, but found a way to win 41-32.
This soft Miami run defense going up against the best rushing team in the country is my biggest reason for this pick. The Hurricanes are yielding 207 yards per game on the ground this season. They gave up 233 rushing yards to Bethune-Cookman at home last week if that tells you anything about how poor their run defense is.
Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in September games over the last 2 seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.
|09-22-12||Massachusetts Minutemen +26 v. Miami (OH)||16-27||Win||100||61 h 24 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +26
The UMass Minutemen have clearly been one of the worst teams in college football through the first three weeks. As a result, they are showing excellent value against the spread in Week 4 against the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks. I'll gladly take advantage of this inflated line and back the big dog despite how poorly they've played.
This is UMass's first season as a member of the FBS. It has not gone well early as they've failed to cover the spread in each of their first three games, losing at UConn 37-0, at Michigan 13-63, and at home against Indiana 6-45. The one thing that you can say is that they are battle-tested having faced three BCS schools.
Now, they finally get a bit of a break against a Miami (Ohio) team that isn't nearly as strong as their first three opponents. The Redhawks are 1-2 this season, getting blown out at Ohio State 10-56 and at Boise State 12-39. Their lone win came at home against Southern Illinois 30-14, but they were actually outgained in that contest 349-336. I have no doubt that UMass is a stronger team than Southern Illinois, thus it should have no problem staying within the number Saturday.
The Redhawks are getting outgained 292-495 on the season. They simply have no business being this heavily favored with how poorly they have played. UMass scored two touchdowns on Michigan's first-team defense, and I look for their offense to put up 20-plus points against this soft Redhawks defense. That will be more than enough to cover this inflated number.
The Redhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Miami (Ohio) is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. The Redhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take UMass Saturday.
|09-21-12||San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -143||1-5||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* Padres/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -143
San Francisco (87-63) continued its blistering pace with a 9-2 victory over Colorado on Thursday to complete a four-game sweep. Pablo Sandoval homered from both sides of the plate and Buster Posey also connected as the Giants won for the eighth time in nine games and reduced their magic number for the NL West crown to three.
With a 10-game lead over Los Angeles, San Francisco could wrap up the division as early as Saturday. The Giants are 24 games above .500 for the first time since ending the 2003 season 100-61. San Diego (72-78) has played pretty well over the last month, but it really doesn't have anything to play for heading into this series with the Giants.
Ryan Vogelsong has been off his game of late, but I look for him to get back on track against this weak Padres' line-up. Vogelsong is 12-9 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 14 home starts.
There's no question that Vogelsong is the better starter in this one, and he'll be highly motivated heading in. San Diego counters with Casey Kelly, who is 2-1 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three.
San Francisco is a perfect 11-0 in home games vs. a starting pitcher who lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot 5.7 to 2.5, or by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Roll with the Giants Friday.
|09-21-12||Baylor v. Louisiana-Monroe +7.5||Top||47-42||Win||100||97 h 38 m||Show|
20* Baylor/ULM ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Louisiana-Monroe +7.5
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks have been one of the most impressive non-BCS schools in the country in the early going. They beat Arkansas on the road 34-31 in overtime in their opener as a 30-point dog, then took Auburn to overtime on the road as a 14.5-point dog before losing 28-31.
This team has proven that it can hang with the big boys. Now they get a chance to prove it on National TV at home against a Baylor team that you could argue is not strong as the two teams that it has already taken to overtime. I look for UL-Monroe to easily stay within this spread, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Warhawks pull off another upset.
ULM quarterback Kolton Browning deserves to be in the Heisman conversation. He has completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 649 yards with six touchdowns and one interception against two SEC defenses. Browning also has a team-high 127 rushing yards and two scores, and he'll give this weak Baylor defense a lot of problems Friday.
ULM is loaded with weapons outside as they already have four players that have double-digit receptions through only two games. Brent Leonard has led the way with 18 receptions for 165 yards and a touchdown, while Je'Rom Hamm has caught 11 balls for 149 yards. Tavarese Maye (13, 121) and Colby Harper (11, 101, one TD) can beat you as well.
Baylor is in a huge letdown spot here with their Big 12 opener at West Virginia on deck. The Bears have a soft defense once again this year, allowing 23.5 points and 459 total yards per game against the likes of SMU and Sam Houston State in two home games to open the season. This will be their first road games of the year, which is always tough.
The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Warhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. La-Monroe is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Warhawks have outgained Arkansas and Auburn 480-397.5 in their two games. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Friday.
|09-21-12||Baltimore Orioles +110 v. Boston Red Sox||4-2||Win||110||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +110
The Baltimore Orioles should not be an underdog to the hapless Boston Red Sox tonight. Boston is in a free fall right now, and it blew a 4-1 lead in the 9th yesterday to lose to the Tampa Bay Rays. At 68-83 on the season, the Red Sox have clearly packed it in.
Baltimore is surging, winners of four straight to get to 85-64 on the season. The Orioles trail the Yankees by just one game for the AL East lead, and they are tied with Oakland for the two wild-card spots in the American League, 4.5 games clear of Los Angeles.
They have the edge on the mound tonight behind Miguel Gonzalez, who is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 6-4 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 12 starts and three relief appearances, including 4-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in seven road starts.
Jon Lester has been off his game all season, and that hasn't changed here late in the year. The left-hander is 9-12 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 30 starts this season. Lester has been atrocious at home, going 3-8 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.638 WHIP in 16 home starts this year.
The Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Baltimore is 7-2 in its last 9 games as an underdog. The Red Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 3-13 in Lester's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Lester's last 6 starts as a home favorite. Take the Orioles Friday.
|09-20-12||Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels -118||3-1||Loss||-118||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* Rangers/Angels AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles -118
Despite their loss last night, the Los Angeles Angels still trail the Oakland A's by just 3.5 games for the final wild-card spot in the American League. This is a much more important game for them tonight than it is for the Rangers, who are all but guaranteed to make the postseason.
I like Los Angeles' chances of getting a win tonight behind Zach Greinke, who is 14-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 31 starts this season, 7-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.050 WHIP n 13 home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three. Greinke has also posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 10 career starts against Texas.
Greinke is 27-2 (+23.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 17-0 (+17.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. This guy simply does not lose at home. Roll with the Angels Thursday.
|09-20-12||BYU +8 v. Boise State||6-7||Win||100||74 h 37 m||Show|
15* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8
The BYU Cougars are showing solid value as an 8-point underdog to the Boise State Broncos Thursday. Boise State is down this season with only seven starters back from last year. BYU is a team that is one the rise with 14 starts from last season.
BYU has won 12 of its last 14 games dating back to last season. Coming off a heartbreaking 3-point loss at Utah last week, the Cougars will be highly motivated heading into this showdown with the Broncos. Boise State did not look good against Michigan State in its opener, getting outgained 206-461 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score of 13-17 would indicate.
I know the Broncos bounced back with a 39-12 home victory over Miami (Ohio), but the Redhawks are down this year and Boise State was coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare. The fact of the matter is that the Broncos are in rebuilding mode this year and should not be this heavily favored against an underrated BYU team capable of beating almost anyone.
BYU has one of the best defenses in the country, which is going to keep them in this game. They have given up just 14.3 points and 241 total yards per game through three contests. Their run defense is absolutely dominant as they've yielded a mere 53 rushing yards per game and 1.7/carry. Boise State only managed 37 rushing yards on 24 carries against Michigan State, and it will struggle against BYU's run defense as well.
The Cougars are 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Boise State is 0-6 ATS in home games after a win by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. BYU is 5-0 ATS in it last 5 vs. MWC opponents. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Cougars. Take BYU Thursday.
|09-20-12||NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers +1.5||Top||36-7||Loss||-110||74 h 40 m||Show|
20* Giants/Panthers NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina +1.5
Note: I got this line early in the week, and I still like Carolina at -2.5 if that's the line you get.
The Carolina Panthers were my surprise pick to win the NFC South and make the playoffs this year. I did not like what I saw from them in a Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay 10-16, but they played up to their potential last Sunday, beating the New Orleans Saints 35-27 at home.
Cam Newton was efficient, completing 14 of 20 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a career-high 71 yards and a score. Against a good New York Giants' defensive line, teams need a mobile quarterback like Newton to be successful. Also, the Panthers have my top-rated offensive line in the league, so they'll be able to handle that defensive line just fine.
I was down on the New York Giants coming into the season, and they have done nothing to change my opinion. After losing at home 17-24 to the Dallas Cowboys, they needed 25 fourth quarter points from Eli Manning and company to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home 41-34 last week. They spent a lot of energy coming from 14 points down to win that game in the second half, which will really test their stamina on a short week.
New York is also going to be without several key players heading into this one. Starting receiver Hakeem Nicks, who had 10 catches for 199 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs last week, is out with a foot injury. The team will also be without running back Ahmad Bradshaw, offensive tackle David Diehl, and wide receiver Domenik Hixon. That leaves the Giants without two of their top three receivers against a much-improved Carolina defense.
The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. I just feel this team is ready to make a statement against the defending Super Bowl champions. They certainly have a lot of confidence coming in after beating New Orleans last week. Also, they are in much better shape health-wise and will be the fresher team given what happened last week. Bet Carolina Thursday.
|09-19-12||Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels -121||6-2||Loss||-121||11 h 27 m||Show|
15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -121
The Los Angeles Angels have won 19 of their last 26 games to get to 81-67 on the season. This red hot team is now just three games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild-card spot in the American League. Texas is in pretty good shape to make the postseason, so this is a much more important game for the Angels.
I like their chances of getting a win at home tonight behind C.J. Wilson, who is 12-9 with a 3.73 ERA in 31 starts, 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 13 home starts, and 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in his last three outings. In his lone home start against Texas this season, Wilson pitched six shutout innings of a 3-2 Angels' victory on June 2nd.
I'll gladly fade Texas' Derek Holland, who is 10-6 with a 4.50 ERA this season. The left-hander is 4-5 with a 5.40 ERA in 11 career starts against Los Angeles. In his last two starts against the Angels, Holland has allowed 12 earned runs and five homers in 13 1/3 innings while going 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA.
The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Texas is 3-14 in Holland's last 17 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rangers are 0-5 in Holland's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Wilson's last 5 starts. These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the home team. Roll with the Angels Wednesday.
|09-19-12||Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5||0-5||Win||101||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+101)
The St. Louis Cardinals should have no problem disposing of the lowly Houston Astros by 2 runs or more tonight. St. Louis has a lot to play for right now as it sits just 1.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the final wild-card spot in the National League. At 48-100 on the season, the Astros have nothing to play for.
I'll gladly back Lance Lynn tonight. The right-hander has been at his best at home, going 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 10 starts this season. Lynn is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against Houston with the Cardinals winning by finals of 14-2 and 9-2 in those two outings.
Lucas Harrell has been at his worst on the road for Houston, going 4-7 with a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts away from home this season. Harrell has posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.715 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals. In his lone start at St. Louis, the left-hander gave up six runs and 11 base runners over five innings of a 0-7 loss on August 21st.
Lynn is 11-1 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season, and the Cardinals are winning 5.8 to 2.9 in this spot, or by an average of 2.9 runs/game. Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.
|09-19-12||Kent State v. Buffalo -3||Top||23-7||Loss||-109||52 h 18 m||Show|
20* Kent State/Buffalo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -3
I fully expected the Buffalo Bulls to be one of the most improved teams in the MAC this season. They returned 15 starters from last season, including most of their key players offensively. From what I've seen so far, they have not disappointed.
The biggest two returnees offensively are running back Brandon Oliver (1,395 yards, 13 TD) and wide receiver Alex Neutz (43 receptions, 641 yards, four TD). Plus, four starters and 72 career starts return along the offensive line. The Bulls also have eight starters back defensively.
Buffalo gave Georgia a tough Week 1 test, but eventually fell 23-45 on the road as a 38-point underdog. The Bulls came back with a 56-34 victory in Week 2 over Morgan State, outgaining the Bears 571-366 in the process.
Alex Zordich has stepped in and owned the starting QB role, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 385 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. Oliver has been a beast on the ground, rushing for 349 yards (6.3/carry) and three touchdowns. Neutz leads all Buffalo receivers with 13 receptions for 206 yards and five touchdowns.
Kent State has played two games as well, and after taking a look at the box scores, it's clear to me that Buffalo is the better team in this one. The Golden Flashes beat Towson 41-21 at home in their opener, but they were actually outgained 267-316 in a contest that was much closer than the final score would indicate. Towson turned the ball over a whopping six times!
It was the Flashes' 14-47 loss at Kentucky in Week 2 that really shows me how weak this team really is. Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the BCS, and that was evident when they lost at home to Western Kentucky last week. The Wildcats racked up 539 yards of offense on Kent State, including 354 passing and four touchdowns from QB Maxwell Smith.
Spencer Keith has yet to throw a touchdown pass in two games for Kent State. Leading rusher Trayion Durham is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Buffalo clearly has the more explosive offense in this one, and the Flashes will have a real hard time keeping up with the Bulls on the scoreboard.
The Golden Flashes are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Kent State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Golden Flashes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. The Bulls are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Bet Buffalo Wednesday.
|09-18-12||Baltimore Orioles -122 v. Seattle Mariners||Top||4-2||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -122
Once again, the Baltimore Orioles should be a heavier favorite against the lowly Seattle Mariners Tuesday night. I had the Orioles last night in a 10-4 victory, and I'll back them again tonight.
Baltimore (83-64) simply has too much to play for to let down. The Orioles trail the Yankees by one-half game for the AL East lead, and they are three games ahead of the Angels for the final wild-card spot in the American League.
At 12-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 29 starts this season, Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He faced the Mariners on July 3rd, giving up just two earned runs and two base runners over 7 2/3 innings while striking out nine in a 5-4 Orioles' victory at Seattle.
The Orioles are 7-0 in their last 7 Tuesday games. Baltimore is 4-0 in Chen's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Seattle is 0-4 in its last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Orioles. Bet Baltimore Tuesday.
|09-18-12||San Diego Padres +136 v. Arizona Diamondbacks||2-3||Loss||-100||10 h 24 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +136
The San Diego Padres are showing great value tonight as a nice-sized road underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Neither of these teams really have much to play for at this point, but San Diego is the team that's clearly playing out its season.
The Padres have won 19 of their last 25 games overall to pull within five games of .500 on the season. I'll gladly back San Diego starter Eric Stults, who is one of the most underrated hurlers in the league.
Stults is 6-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 12 starts and three relief appearances, including -1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in six road starts. He'll be up against Ian Kennedy, who sports a 4.70 ERA in 12 home starts this year.
Stults is 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona. Kennedy has struggled against San Diego recently, going 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA in his last two starts against the Padres, yielding 10 earned runs and three homers over 12 1/3 innings.
Stults is 6-0 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. San Diego is 5-0 in Stults' last 5 starts as an underdog. These three trends make for a 15-0 system backing the Padres. Take San Diego Tuesday.
|09-18-12||Chicago White Sox +101 v. Kansas City Royals||3-2||Win||101||9 h 54 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +101
With what's at stake for the Chicago White Sox, they should not be an underdog to the Kansas City Royals Tuesday. Chicago leads Detroit by three games in the AL Central division, and it comes in with a lot of confidence and momentum after coming from behind to beat the Tigers 5-4 yesterday.
Gavin Floyd has been dominant in his last two starts against Kansas City, posting a 1.15 ERA while allowing just two earned runs and 12 base runners with 15 strikeouts over 15 2/3 innings. He pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings in a 5-0 Chicago victory in his lone start against the Royals this season on May 11th.
I'll gladly fade Kansas City's Luke Hochever, who is one of the worst starters in the league at 8-13 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 29 starts this season. Hochevar has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with an 11.77 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in his last three starts.
The White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 overall. Chicago is 5-0 in Floyd's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 8-20 in Hochevar's last 28 starts during game 1 of a series. Kansas City is 1-5 in Hochevar's last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Roll with the White Sox Tuesday.
|09-17-12||Baltimore Orioles -120 v. Seattle Mariners||10-4||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* Orioles/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -120
The Baltimore Orioles should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Seattle Mariners. At 82-64 on the season, this team is just one game back of the AL East lead, and 2.5 games ahead of the Angels for the final wild-card spot in the American League.
Manager Buck Showalter has not allowed his team to relax, and he is easily the manager of the year at this point. I look for the Orioles to make easy work of a Mariners team in Game 1 tonight that has lost six of their last nine overall.
Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in his last three starts. Tillman has never lost to Seattle, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in three career starts against the Mariners.
Hector Noesi is no match for Tillman in this one. The right-hander is 2-11 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in his last three. Noesi is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in his lone career start against Baltimore. He gave up four earned runs in five innings of a 2-4 home loss to the Orioles on July 4th.
The Orioles are 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 road starts. The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Seattle is 0-4 in Noesi's last 4 starts as an underdog. Seattle is 0-5 in Noesi's last 5 home starts. The Orioles are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing Baltimore. Take the Orioles Monday.
|09-17-12||Denver Broncos +3 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||21-27||Loss||-100||121 h 17 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Falcons ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver +3
The Denver Broncos should not be an underdog on ESPN's Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons. This team is way undervalued in the early going as they were just a 1-point home favorite over Pittsburgh last week. Any time you can get Peyton Manning as an underdog, I look at is as a gift from oddsmakers.
After Manning's performance against the Steelers, there's no question he is back and probably as good as ever. Denver went to the no-huddle after a slow start, and Manning certainly looked like his old self operating it. He completed 19 of 26 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns to lead Denver to a 31-19 victory in Week 1.
Overlooked in the win was the fact that Denver's defense, which improved as the season went on last year, really shut down Pittsburgh. The Steelers managed just 284 total yards, Ben Roethlisberger completed just 22 of 40 passes, and the Broncos sacked Big Ben five times.
Atlanta is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after its 40-24 victory over Kansas City last week. This was a 20-17 game at halftime, and the Falcons were actually outgained 376-393 in a contest that was much closer than the final score would indicate. Plus, Atlanta put up 40 points on a Kansas City defense that was playing without four of its best players in LB Tamba Hali, S Kendrick Lewis, CB Brandon Flowers and DT Anthony Toribio.
The Falcons won't have nearly as much offensive success as they did last week against this stingy Denver defense. While the offenses are pretty evenly matched in this one, the edge certainly goes to the Broncos defensively. Atlanta is soft on this side of the ball, and that was evident when they gave up 393 total yards to a weak Chiefs' offense last week. Plus, they let defensive leader and top tackler Curtis Lofton (147 tackles, 8 for loss, nine passes defended) leave for New Orleans, and top CB Brent Grimes is out for the season after tearing his Achilles' against Kansas City.
The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, and 6-18 ATS in home games after a win by 14 or more points since 1992. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|09-16-12||Detroit Lions +7 v. San Francisco 49ers||19-27||Loss||-110||97 h 8 m||Show|
15* Lions/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Detroit +7
The Detroit Lions want revenge from a 19-24 home loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Jim Harbaugh shook Jim Schwartz's hand overenthusiastically after the game, and these Lions' players will have their coache's back Sunday night as they bring great effort to the field to try and pull off the upset.
This line is clearly an overreaction from Week 1's results. There's no doubt San Francisco looked good in beating Green Bay 30-22 on the road, and public perception says they are a great team now. Public perception on the Lions says they are a bad team after needing a last-second touchdown to beat the St. Louis Rams 27-23 at home.
A closer look at the Lions' game against the Rams indicates it should have been a huge blowout in Detroit's favor, but mistakes kept it close. Detroit actually outgained St. Louis 429-255 for the game, which is a differential that would normally produce a 14-plus point blowout. However, three interceptions by Matthew Stafford, including one that was returned for a touchdown, kept the game close.
Stafford will come back with a much better effort against a 49ers defense that is vulnerable against the pass. Stafford has thrown for 350-plus yards in six straight games, and I expect him to make it seven straight Sunday. Aaron Rodgers threw for 303 yards on the 49ers last week. In the Lions' loss to the 49ers last year, Stafford threw for 293 yards and two scores.
The Lions are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The underdog is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The road team is also 3-1-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the Lions Sunday.
|09-16-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Philadelphia Eagles -1||Top||23-24||Push||0||90 h 45 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -1
If I would have set this line before Week 1, I would have installed Philadelphia as up to a 6-point home favorite over Baltimore. Because the Eagles were not sharp against the Browns in Week 1, and the Ravens blew out the Bengals, oddsmakers have decided to install the Eagles as only a 1-point favorite.
The clear line value in this game is with Philadelphia due to an overreaction from oddsmakers and the betting public after Week 1. I still strongly believe the Eagles are Super Bowl contenders, and after getting bashed in the media all week for their performance against Cleveland, they are going to be looking to make a statement at home Sunday.
I know the Eagles beat the Browns just 17-16, but that game was really a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 456-210 for the game, but committed five turnovers to keep the Browns in it. Philly has one of the most underrated defenses in the league, limiting Brandon Weeden to just 12 of 35 passing for 118 yards with four interceptions.
Baltimore beat Cincinnati 44-13, but that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. This was a 17-13 game in the third quarter before mistakes by Cincinnati and big plays by Baltimore turned it into a blowout late. The Ravens are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after that misleading result.
The Ravens are on a short week, and they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and I look for Michael Vick and company to make a statement Sunday with a big home win over the Ravens. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|09-16-12||Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals||27-34||Push||0||90 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +7
The Cleveland Browns should not be a touchdown underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that I believe is very evenly-matched. This is a division rivalry game, and I look for it to go right down to the wire Sunday.
Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the league heading into 2012. It made the playoffs last year despite beating only one team that finished with a winning record all season. After a 13-44 road loss to Baltimore in Week 1, there's no question this is an overrated team. Plus, the Bengals will be on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, which is always a disadvantage.
The Browns nearly pulled off a huge upset in Week 1, falling to the Eagles 17-16 on a last-second touchdown by Philly. Brandon Weeden single-handedly gave that game away, throwing four interceptions. After shaking off their nerves in Week 1, rookies Weeden and running back Trent Richardson will come back with much better performances in Week 2.
I know Cincinnati has won five of the last six meetings in this series, but that gives the Browns all the more motivation to want revenge Sunday. Plus, four of those six meetings were decided by 3 points or less, so this has clearly been a tight series over the last three years. The value is with the road dog in this one folks.
The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC. Cincinnati is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. These six trends combine for a 32-0 system backing Cleveland. Take the Browns Sunday.
|09-16-12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 v. NY Giants||34-41||Win||100||90 h 44 m||Show|
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8
I believe the Tampa Bay Bucs are going to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season with the moves they made this offseason. They brought in guard Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright, TE Dallas Clark and WR Vincent Jackson. They also drafted RB Doug Martin and SS Mark Barron in the first round.
Both Martin and Barron played great in their opener as rookies. The Bucs led Carolina 13-0 midway through the third quarter, and settled for a 16-10 victory. Martin rushed for 94 yards, Barron had six tackles and two huge pass break-ups, and Jackson led the team in receiving with four receptions for 47 yards.
The Bucs held Cam Newton and a potent Carolina offense to just 301 total yards for the game. Newton was intercepted twice, and he rushed just four times for five yards. In fact, the Bucs held the Panthers to the lowest rushing total in Week 1 with 10 yards on 13 carries.
The Giants are one of the most overrated teams coming into the season. Remember, this was just a 9-7 team last year when they got into the playoffs, and they simply got hot at the right time. I believe New York is having a hard time staying motivated after winning the Super Bowl, and that showed with their 17-24 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. The Giants should not be this heavily favored over an improved Tampa Bay team Sunday.
New York is also extremely banged up right now defensively, which was a big reason the Cowboys put up 433 total yards on them last week. The Buccaneers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on fieldturf. Tampa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games in Week 2. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|09-16-12||Minnesota Vikings v. Indianapolis Colts +1||20-23||Win||104||90 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +1
The Indianapolis Colts should not be an underdog at home to the Minnesota Vikings Sunday. Lucas Oil Stadium is going to be rocking with the anticipation of rookie Andrew Luck's home debut. I believe Luck and company will feed off of their crowd and come away with a victory in a much more comfortable environment than they saw in Week 1.
I know the Colts were beaten 21-41 at Chicago, and Luck threw three interceptions, but he also threw for 309 yards and a score. It wasn't a great debut, but after shaking off the nerves, Luck is going to be much more sharp in Week 2 against a weak Minnesota defense.
The Vikings are coming off a 26-23 overtime victory at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and they are getting way too much credit for that win. The Jaguars remain one of the worst teams in the league, and they really gave that game away. Jacksonville put up 362 total yards on Minnesota after finishing last in the league in total offense last season.
I do not believe the Vikings did enough to upgrade their team this offseason to become more competitive. They have no business being favored on the road against anyone this early in the season after a 3-13 campaign last year. Meanwhile, I love what Indy has done this offseason, especially with the hiring of former Baltimore defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, and former Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Bruce Arian. The roster has certainly been upgraded as well.
The Colts are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 4-16 ATS in road games after a win by 3 or less points since 1992. The Vikings are 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons, getting outscored 15.7 to 26.7 in the process. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|09-15-12||Notre Dame +6 v. Michigan State||20-3||Win||100||93 h 57 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Michigan State ABC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Notre Dame +6
I had the Michigan State Spartans as one of the most overrated teams in the country heading into 2012. I still believe that's the case after they needed a late touchdown to beat Boise State 17-13 at home in their opener. They were playing a Broncos' team that returned just seven starters from last year.
I have been pretty impressed with Notre Dame so far, which goes along the lines of my thinking that the Irish were one of the most underrated teams in the land coming into the year. After topping Navy 50-10, the Irish got out to a 17-7 lead through three quarters against Purdue last week. They would settle for a 20-17 victory after a bad fourth quarter, but they still outgained the Boilermakers 376-288 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Notre Dame QB Everrett Golson was also knocked out of that game against Purdue for precautionary reasons, but he is expected to start against MSU. He has been superb so far, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 433 yards with two touchdowns and one interceptions. If for whatever reason Golson doesn't go, the Irish have a backup with a lot of starting experience in Tommy Rees.
The Irish get a big boost with the return of RB Cierre Wood, who has served his 2-game suspension. Wood led the team in rushing in 2011 with 1,102 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards/carry. His return is huge for this offense.
A big reason I like Notre Dame to cover this spread is their rush defense. Michigan State features star RB Le'Veon Bell, who has already carried 62 times for 280 yards while averaging 4.5/carry through their first two games. QB Andrew Maxwell has been shaky, already throwing just two touchdowns and three interceptions.
That's why I expect the Spartans to try and rely on Bell to carry their offense again Saturday. He won't have much success against a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 119 yards/game and 3.4/carry on the ground this season. That's impressive considering the Irish have played Navy, which features a triple-option rushing attack and almost exclusively runs the ball.
This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. Also, the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|09-15-12||North Texas +28.5 v. Kansas State||21-35||Win||100||92 h 58 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on North Texas +28.5
The Kansas State Wildcats are in a huge letdown spot Saturday, and I cannot see them possibly beating an underrated North Texas team by more than four touchdowns. The Wildcats have been covering machines over the last two seasons, and oddsmakers have finally adjusted Saturday. The clear value in this game is with the big road underdog.
Kansas State is coming off a huge 52-13 home victory over the Miami Hurricanes. With their Big 12 opener at Oklahoma on deck, there's no question the Wildcats will be overlooking North Texas and looking ahead to the Sooners. They may win this game, but certainly not by more than four touchdowns given the situation.
North Texas impressed me by not getting completely blown out on the road by LSU in their opener. The Mean Green lost 14-41, or by 27 points, as a 42-point underdog. If they can stay within 27 of No. 3 LSU, they can certainly stay within 28 of Kansas State.
The Mean Green bounced back with a 34-7 victory over Texas Southern last week, outgaining the opposition 497-185 in the process. North Texas is battle-tested having already played LSU, so it will not be intimidated at Kansas State Saturday. Head coach Dan McCarney is also underrated. He got the most out of his players when he was head coach at Iowa State, and he's doing the same at North Texas.
The Mean Green are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Take North Texas Saturday.
|09-15-12||Florida v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||37-20||Loss||-110||93 h 45 m||Show|
25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5
The Tennessee Vols remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. With 18 starters and 49 lettermen back, I had this team picked as one of my most improved teams in the land. So far, so good.
The Vols are off to a 2-0 start in dominant fashion. They beat NC State 35-21 while outgaining the Wolfpack 524-407 and forcing four turnovers in the process. They followed that up with a 51-13 beat down of Georgia State and outgained the opposition by 295 total yards in that contest.
I have Tyler Bray pegged as the best quarterback in the SEC, and he has not disappointed. Bray is completing 73.8 percent of his passes for 643 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has two studs at receiver in Justin Hunter (17 receptions, 219 yards, three TD) and Cordarrelle Patterson (9, 164, one TD).
Florida has not looked very impressive at all through its first two games. The Gators are 2-0 despite only outgaining their first two opponents by a total of 11 yards. Florida led Bowling Green at home 17-14 heading into the fourth quarter and narrowly escaped with a 27-14 victory. This is one of the most overrated teams in the country, and that will show Saturday when the Vols put a beat down on them.
Tennessee has had this game circled all offseason. The Vols have lost seven straight to the Gators, and for them to prove to the country that they are back, they must win this contest Saturday. That emotion at home, coupled with the fact that the Vols are the more talented team, will lead to a victory.
Florida is 0-7 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons, losing in this spot by an average of 18.6 points per game. The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Tennessee Saturday.
|09-15-12||Boston College v. Northwestern -3||13-22||Win||100||90 h 16 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3
The Northwestern Wildcats continue to go under the radar as only a 3-point favorite against Boston College Saturday. The Wildcats are a sleeper in the Big Ten, and they've shown it by opening 2-0 against some stiff competition.
Northwestern opened its season with a 42-41 victory at Syracuse, which is the same Orange team that lost by a final of just 29-42 to No. 2 USC last week. The Wildcats then beat Vanderbilt 23-13 last Saturday, which is the same Commodores' team that nearly beat South Carolina in their opener.
Boston College lost to Miami 32-41 at home in its opener, which is the same Hurricanes' team that was beaten by Kansas State 13-52 last week. The Eagles then beat up on FCS opponent Maine 34-3 last week, which is far from an impressive win. Battle-tested and ready to prove they are for real, the Wildcats will roll at home Saturday.
The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Northwestern Saturday.
|09-15-12||Texas A&M -13 v. SMU||48-3||Win||100||90 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Line Mistake on Texas A&M -13
The Texas A&M Aggies are by far the more talented team in this match-up with the SMU Mustangs. That will show on the field Saturday as the Aggies roll by two touchdowns or more. Texas A&M may even have more fans at SMU than the Mustangs, so this isn't really a road game for them, either.
The Aggies are coming off a disappointing 17-20 loss to Florida last week in their first game of the season. They blew a 17-10 lead in the second half after dominating the first two quarters. Motivated to make that loss a distant memory, the Aggies will be ready to go Saturday and won't let up on SMU.
The Mustangs are off to a 1-1 start this season. SMU was thoroughly beaten by Baylor 24-59 in its opener, and I believe the Aggies actually have more talent than the Bears, and will be a better team this season. Then, SMU beat Stephen F. Austin 52-0 last week, but that game was one of the most misleading scores I've ever seen. SMU was actually outgained by SFA 328-466, but took advantage of a whopping ten turnovers by SFA.
SMU only has 10 starters back from last season, including three on offense. It's defense is clearly terrible after surrendering 539.5 total yards per game through their first two contests. Texas A&M has 13 starters and 53 lettermen back from a team that should have went 12-1 last year had it not blown five double-digit leads in the second half. This is a squad that is ready to take out its frustration on the Mustangs.
Freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel lived up to the hype in the opener, completing 23 of 30 passes for 173 yards, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score. This dual-threat QB is in line for a monster game against this soft SMU defense.
SMU is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. The Mustangs are 0-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. The Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. Conference USA opponents. These three trends make for a combined 23-0 system backing the road team. Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.
|09-14-12||Washington State v. UNLV OVER 54.5||Top||35-27||Win||100||70 h 53 m||Show|
20* Washington State/UNLV ESPN Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 54.5
This game should see plenty of offensive fireworks to push the final combined score OVER the number. Washington State beat UNLV 59-7 last year for 66 combined points, and I expect a similar combined total by game's end tonight.
After facing BYU and Eastern Washington, an FCS power, the Cougars are ready for a breakout performance offensively under first-year head coach Mike Leach. These players should have his system down by now, and they will be going up against one of the worst teams in the FBS Friday.
I know Washington State could be without starting QB Jeff Tuel, but redshirt sophomore Connor Halliday has experience as a starter. In his only college start, Halliday passed for 289 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions against Utah last November. A week earlier, he was national quarterback of the week after passing for 494 yards and four touchdowns in a win over Arizona State.
UNLV has opened the season 0-2 with a 27-30 loss to Minnesota and a 14-17 loss to Northern Arizona. The Rebels managed 428 total yards against Northern Arizona, and should not have lost that game. They also gave up 478 total yards to Minnesota in a game they should have lost by more.
The Rebels gave up 40.4 points and 443 total yards per game last season, and their defense doesn't appear to be improved at all with just five starters back on this side of the ball. The Cougars yielded 31.8 points and 410 total yards per game last season, and after giving up 447 yards per game in their first two contests, their stop unit doesn't seem improved, either.
UNLV is 7-0 to the OVER after a loss by 3 or less points since 1992. The OVER is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. These two trends make for an 11-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|09-14-12||New York Mets v. Milwaukee Brewers -148||7-3||Loss||-148||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -148
Considering where they stood four weeks ago, the Milwaukee Brewers making the playoffs would be a historic achievement. The surging Brewers have a chance to match a 33-year-old franchise record for their longest home winning streak as they face the sliding New York Mets.
Milwaukee's only losses in its last 19 games at Miller Park came to Philadelphia on Aug. 18 and 19. After that pair of defeats, the Brewers were 12 games under .500 and 12 1/2 back of the NL's second wild-card spot. Milwaukee has gone on an 18-5 tear to get in the thick of the playoff race. That run includes victories in all nine home games, one shy of the club record set July 8-29, 1979.
The latest victory moved the Brewers (72-71) above .500 for the first time since April 12. It also gave them a three-game sweep of the wild card-leading Braves at Miller Park, where they've averaged 6.4 runs during the home win streak.
In his last seven home outings, Brewers' right-hander Mike Friers is 4-2 with a 1.77 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings. This will be Fiers' first start against New York (65-78), and this might be a good time for it. The Mets are coming off an 0-6 homestand, totaling nine runs and batting .210 while matching their worst overall losing streak of the season.
The Brewers are 52-16 in their last 68 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is 9-1 in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. The Brewers are 44-13 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Brewers Friday.
|09-13-12||Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -5||Top||10-23||Win||100||94 h 33 m||Show|
20* Bears/Packers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Green Bay -5
The Green Bay Packers are going to be highly motivated Thursday following just their second regular season loss in the last two years. They were beaten 30-22 by one of the most underrated teams in the league coming into the season in the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday.
I look for the Packers to get back on track in blowout fashion with a home victory in Week 2 over the Chicago Bears. While Chicago is an improved team, its was over-hyped coming into the season. The Bears are especially overvalued now after beating the lowly Indianapolis Colts 41-21 at home last Sunday.
Green Bay has owned Chicago, winning four straight meetings all by 7 points or more. In fact, the Packers have won six of the last seven meetings by 6 points or more. Their lone loss was a fluke in 2010 as they were beaten 20-17 on the road despite outgaining the Bears 379-276 for the game. Devin Hester's 62-yard punt return for a touchdown was the difference in that contest.
In two meetings with the Bears last season, Aaron Rodgers threw eight touchdown and only one interception while beat Chicago by double-digits both times. Rodgers is 4-0 in four career home starts against Chicago. Jay Cutler has thrown six touchdowns and a whopping 12 interceptions while losing five of his six career starts against Green Bay.
This play falls into a system that is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
The Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. NFC North opponents. These four trends make for a perfect 27-0 system backing Green Bay. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|09-13-12||Rutgers v. South Florida -8||23-13||Loss||-105||50 h 12 m||Show|
15* Rutgers/USF Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida -8
South Florida is my pick to win the Big East this season, and for good reason. They returned 15 starters this season, including eight from an offene that put up 29.3 points and 432 total yards per game a year ago.
USF is off to a solid start in 2012, beating Chattanooga 34-13 before going on the road to knock off a very good Nevada team 32-31. The Bulls racked up 572 total yards against the Wolfpack, including 363 through the air and 209 on the ground.
Rutgers is really going to miss head coach Greg Schiano, who always got the most out of his teams, but has moved on to coach the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL. Rutgers is 2-0, but it hasn't looked nearly as sharp as the Bulls.
The Scarlet Knights managed just 309 total yards in a 24-12 win at Tulane as a 19.5-point favorite, and just 321 yards in a 26-0 home victory over Howard as a 42-point favorite. This team is clearly hurting offensively if that's all they could do against those two lowly schools. Simply put, Rutgers won't be able to keep up with USF on the scoreboard tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Take South Florida Thursday
|09-12-12||Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -136||Top||2-8||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -136
The Brewers will try to win a ninth consecutive game with Yovani Gallardo on the mound and complete a three-game sweep of the Braves on Wednesday night. Milwaukee (71-71) has won 17 of 22 to revive its season and become a factor for the second wild-card position. It is only four games back now.
The Brewers seem to be playing especially well when Gallardo (14-8, 3.76 ERA) takes the mound. They've won each of his last eight starts - averaging 7.43 runs - while he's 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA. Gallardo is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA in six starts against Atlanta, going 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA in three at home.
Paul Maholm is 1-10 with a 5.37 ERA in his last 18 starts against the Brewers, including five straight losing decisions over his past seven matchups. He made two starts against Milwaukee while with the Chicago Cubs this season and went 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA. The left-hander will be facing an offense that is averaging 6.0 runs and batting .287 with 35 homers over the last 22 games.
Gallardo is 11-0 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are winning in this spot 5.2 to 2.1 on average. Gallardo is 21-4 against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Brewers Wednesday.
|09-11-12||Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox -101||Top||5-3||Loss||-101||10 h 52 m||Show|
20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox -101
The Chicago White Sox should be a favorite against the Detroit Tigers tonight. Chicago (76-64) has shown some amazing resiliency while holding onto a 3-game lead oveer Detroit (73-67) this season. It will get the best of the Tigers at home again tonight.
Jake Peavy has been nothing short of dominant all season for the White Sox. The former NL Cy Young winner has returned to his old self, going 10-10 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 27 starts, including 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 13 home starts.
This guy is the ultimate competitor, and one Ace that you would certainly want to back at this time of year when the stakes are at their highest. I'll gladly fade Detroit's Doug Fister, who is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Tigers are 0-7 in their last 7 road games. Detroit is 0-6 in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the home team tonight. Bet the White Sox Tuesday.
|09-10-12||San Diego Chargers +1.5 v. Oakland Raiders||Top||22-14||Win||100||147 h 54 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Raiders ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +1.5
The San Diego Chargers should not be an underdog to the Oakland Raiders on ESPN's Monday Night Football. I believe the Raiders will be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and that will show in their opener against an underrated Chargers' squad.
After back-to-back 8-8 seasons, the Raiders shockingly fired head coach Hue Jackson, who clearly had this team headed in the right direction. Dennis Allen, the youngest head coach in the NFL today, takes over an Oakland team that has gotten worse over the offseason.
The offense loses leading rusher Michael Bush (977 yards, seven TD), who also caught 37 balls for 418 yards and a score. He will be missed because the Raiders no longer have that 1-2 punch with he and McFadden. Carson Palmer is far past his prime and has limited weapons. He threw 13 touchdowns to 16 interceptions last year.
The biggest losses come on defense for the Raiders. They part ways with sack master Kamerion Wimbley (63 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 7 sacks). They also lose their top corner in Stanford Rout (49 tackles, 15 pass break-ups, four INT) to the Kansas City Chiefs a year after losing top corner Nnamdi Asomough to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philip Rivers will pick apart what I believe is the weakest secondary in the NFL. Rivers threw for 4,624 yards and 27 touchdowns with 20 interceptions last season. The Chargers went 8-8 last year, but they have some momentum heading into 2012 after winning four of their final five games last season, scoring 34 or more points in their four victories.
San Diego will be just as strong offensively, and its defense will be improved. San Diego brings back all of their key players from last season, including LB Tadeo Spikes (106 tackles), LB Donald Butler (96 tackles, 8.5 for loss), FS Eric Weddle (88 tackles, 12 pass break-ups, seven INT), CB Antoine Cason (53 tackles, 17 pass break-ups, two INT) and LB Antwan Barnes (41 tackles, 11 sacks).
The Chargers have made some nice upgrades this offseason. They've added WR's Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem to make up for the loss of Vincent Jackson. OG Rex Hadnot started 16 games for Arizona last year and adds solid depth along the O-line. Defensively, they have added LB Jarrett Johnson, who made 16 starts for Baltimore last year. They used their first three draft picks on defense, selecting LB Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) in the first round, along with DE DKendall Reyes (UConn) in the second and S Brandon Taylor (LSU) in the thrid.
San Diego has won 14 of its last 17 meetings with Oakland. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Monday games. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Oakland. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet San Diego Monday.
|09-10-12||St Louis: J Garcia -113 v. San Diego: E Stults||3-11||Loss||-113||12 h 44 m||Show|
15* Cards/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -113
The St. Louis Cardinals get the nod Monday as a small road favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres. St. Louis (75-65) has a lost more to play for than San Diego (66-75) right now.
This is certainly one team that St. Louis starter Jaime Garcia loves facing. Garcia is 1-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego.
The Cardinals are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. St. Louis is 12-4 in its last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Cardinals are 70-27 in the last 97 meetings. Roll with St. Louis Monday.
|09-10-12||Atlanta Braves -112 v. Milwaukee Brewers||1-4||Loss||-112||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -112
The Atlanta Braves (81-60) have a lost more to play for than the Milwaukee Brewers (69-71). We are getting the Braves at a great price here Monday night given the situation.
Mike Minor has stepped up his game to come through huge for Atlanta of late. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 00.911 WHIP in his last three starts.
Wily Peralta has struggled in two outings for the Brewers, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.1714 WHIP while giving up four earned runs and 12 base runners over seven innings.
Atlanta is 19-3 vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. Atlanta is 7-0 in its last 7 meetings with Milwaukee. Take the Braves Monday.
|09-09-12||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Denver Broncos -1||19-31||Win||100||121 h 5 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Broncos NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -1
The Denver Broncos should be a bigger favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers on NBC's Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Denver is going to be a contender in the AFC this season, and it proves it tonight with a victory over a solid Steelers team.
Four-time MVP Peyton Manning takes over at quarterback, and he has a huge chip on his shoulder heading into 2012. After Indianapolis let him go, he wants to prove to the world that he's still one of the best quarterbacks in the game.
Unlike in Indianapolis, Manning actually has a running game in Denver. The Broncos averaged a league-best 165 rushing yards per game on the ground, led by Willis McGahee (1,199 yards). But they are four deep at running back and will be able to move the ball on the ground again in 2012. Eric Decker and Damaryius Thomas are two very talented receivers that just haven't had the chance to shine with Tebow at quarterback. They will look like two of the best receivers in the league in 2012 with Manning throwing them the ball.
Defensively, the Broncos really bucked down in the second half of the season last year. They have two absolute studs in OLB Von Miller (64 tackles, 11.5 sacks) and DE Elvis Dumervil (42 tackles, 9.5 sacks), who will be applying pressure on Ben Roethlisberger all game long.
Pittsburgh is battling some injuries that could lead to a slow start this season. Leading rusher Rashard Mendenhall likely won't play Sunday as he recovers from a torn ACL. James Harrison (knee) is questionable, starting guard David DeCastro is out, and free safety Ryan Clark won't play due to his struggles with higher elevations.
The Steelers' biggest weakness over the year has been a secondary that struggles against good passing attacks. Without Clark back their leading the secondary, it could get ugly. Tim Tebow threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns in Denver's 29-23 playoff victory over Pittsburgh last season, so you can just imagine what kind of success Manning is going to have against this secondary Sunday night.
The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. The Steelers are losing by an average score of 11.5 to 19.8 in this spot. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|09-09-12||New England Patriots -5.5 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||34-13||Win||100||114 h 41 m||Show|
25* NFL Season-Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -5.5
The New England Patriots should be a much heavier favorite against the Tennessee Titans. This line continues to move down, and there's no good reason for it. I know the Patriots didn't look good in the preseason, but this is when it counts, and they'll be on their game Sunday.
New England put up 32.1 points and 428 total yards per game last season to finish second in the league in total offense. It brings basically everyone back from last season, and adds WR Brandon Lloyd, who quietly led the entire NFL in receiving in 2010. This offense is going to be even more potent with Lloyd outside.
I know the Patriots struggled defensively last season giving up a lot of yards, but they only gave up 21.4 points per game as they were stingy as teams approached their end zone. The defense is a question mark for the Patriots again, but their offense can more than carry the load.
Tennessee is not a potent offensive team and won't have what it takes to keep up with the Pats on the scoreboard. It will be going with Jake Locker at quarterback, who will make his first career start. The Titans put up just 20.3 points per game last year, and they still lack superior weapons on offense. Plus, top receiver Kenny Britt has been suspended for the opener.
New England is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot 35.4 to 18.1 on average, or by a whopping 17.3 points per game. The Patriots are 49-24-3 ATS in their last 76 road games. Bet New England Sunday.
|09-09-12||Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -1.5||28-48||Win||100||114 h 41 m||Show|
15* AFC Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -1.5
The New York Jets are way undervalued coming into the season. This team has made it to the AFC Championship two of the last three years. They were well on their way to the playoffs again last season with an 8-5 start, but an 0-3 finish had them missing the postseason.
New York comes back highly motivated this season to make up for last year's collapse at the end. The Jets went 0-4 in the preseason, which has made them undervalued heading into Week 1. This team will be ready for their opener against the Bills, and I believe they play a great game this afternoon.
Buffalo is getting way too much love. It did have a good offseason in bringing in DE's Mark Anderson and Mario Williams to help out the defense, but this team is still at least another year or two away from seriously competing for a playoff spot.
The Jets still have one of the best defenses in the league. They finished No. 5 in the NFL in total defense last season at 312 total yards/game. Offensively, I look for New York to get back to ground and pound, which was their formula for success in 2009 and 2010. The addition of Tim Tebow makes them a more physical, dominant running team, which is just what Rex Ryan wants. Ball control and defense wins in the NFL.
New York is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Buffalo. The Bills have scored an average of just 13.8 points per game over those five contests, so the Jets certainly have their offense figured out. Meanwhile, New York has averaged 30 points during its five-game winning streak over the Bills. Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Take the Jets Sunday.
|09-09-12||Miami Dolphins v. Houston Texans UNDER 43||10-30||Win||100||114 h 40 m||Show|
15* AFC Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Dolphins/Texans UNDER 43
The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans will play part in a defensive battle Sunday in Houston. Oddsmakers have clearly set the bar too high in this one, and now it's time to take advantage by siding with the UNDER.
Miami managed just 20.6 points and 317 total yards per game last season. Its offense has actually gotten worse this offseason. The Dolphins will be going with a rookie at quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, and he'll be working with the worst receiving corps in the league, hands down.
The Dolphins were actually pretty solid defensively last season, yielding 19.6 points per game. They were extremely stingy against the run, finishing third in the league in rushing defense (96 yards/game) while allowing just 3.7/carry. That's huge considering Houston was one of the best rushing teams in the league last year.
The Texans have a solid offense, but the reason they made the playoffs last season was their defense. Houston finished No. 2 in the league in total defense (286 yards/game) and No. 4 in scoring defense (17.4 points/game). I look for Houston to hold Miami to 14 points or less in this one, which will pave the way for the UNDER.
Miami is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average combined score of 33.7 points per game in this situation. The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Dolphins last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 21-8 in Dolphins last 29 road games. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-08-12||North Carolina -8 v. Wake Forest||Top||27-28||Loss||-105||94 h 8 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -8
*Note* - I put this play out on Tuesday when the line was -8. I see it has moved up to -10 or higher in a few places. I still like the Tar Heels to win by two touchdowns or more.
The Tar Heels are going under the radar in 2012 because they are ineligible for postseason play. However, this team is clearly going to play hard this season, and they could easily win the ACC Coastal division, though they won't be able to play in the ACC title game.
UNC returns 13 starters from a team that won seven games a year ago. That includes QB Bryn Renner, who completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,086 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions a year ago. Also back is leading rusher Giovani Bernard (1,253 yards, 13 TD). Both Renner and Bernard are two of the most underrated players in the country.
The offenive line also returns four starters and 93 career starts, making it one of the ACC's best. The defense has six starters back, led by senior MLB Kevin Reddick (71 tackles, 6 for loss) and senior DT Sylvester Williams (54 tackles, 7 for loss).
UNC made easy work of Elon in its opener, winning by a final of 62-0. The Tar Heels scored all 62 points within the first three quarters. Renner finished with 236 yards and three touchdowns, Bernard had 93 yards and a score on only nine carries, and the defense forced four turnovers.
Wake Forest is clearly in rebuilding mode with just 11 starters back from a team that went 6-7 last year. That was evident in their 20-17 home victory over lowly Liberty last Saturday. Wake was outgained 363-293 for the game in a contest that went right down to the wire. The Demon Deacon are clearly no match for the Tar Heels Saturday.
UNC won last year's meeting 49-24 at home, and you can expect a similar blowout on the road in 2012. It outgained Wake Forest 562-331 for the game as well.
This play falls into a system that is 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N CAROLINA) - good passing team from last season - averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt. Bet the Tar Heels Saturday.
|09-08-12||Rice v. Kansas -9.5||25-24||Loss||-105||93 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kansas -9.5
Sure, the Kansas Jayhawks are picked to finish last in the Big 12 this season, but they should have no problem beating the lowly Rice Owls by double-digits at home Saturday. This team is showing great value early in the season, especially today.
New head coach Charlie Weis inherits a team that went just 2-10 last season. But the Jayhawks bring back 14 starters and 51 lettermen, making them one of the most experienced teams in college football. Plus, Weis has brought in senior QB Dayne Crist, who he coached in his last two years at Notre Dame.
Top receivers DJ Beshears (40, 437, three TD) and Kale Pick (34, 44, two TD), and three starters and 75 career starts return along the offensive line. The Jayhawks return seven starters on defense, including six of their top eight tacklers.
Kansas dominated the first three quarters against South Dakote State in the opener. The Jayhawks were up 24-7 after three before letting up in the final period to win 31-17. Tony Pierson led the way on the ground, rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Kansas' defense forced four interceptions in a solid performance.
The Jayhawks rushed for 263 yards against SDSU, and they should have no problem running the ball on a Rice team that gave up 343 rushing yards in a 49-24 home loss to UCLA in their opener. In fact, the Bruins also threw for 303 yards, racking up 646 total yards on the Owls. This is a Rice team that brings back just 10 starters from a squad that went 4-8 a year ago.
Rice is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average score of 51.8 to 27.3. The Owls are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. Rice is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Kansas Saturday.
|09-08-12||Michigan State v. Central Michigan +22.5||41-7||Loss||-105||93 h 11 m||Show|
15* Instate Rivalry PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Michigan +22.5
I believe the Central Michigan Chippewas are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2012. They went just 3-9 last season, but head coach Dan Enos enters his third year on the job and finally has his recruits in place. The Chippewas return a whopping 16 starters from last year's team.
They return eight starters on offense, including senior QB Ryan Radcliff. He's primed for a big year after completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 3,286 yards with 25 touchdowns and 16 interceptions last season. He has his top two receivers back in Titus Davis (40, 751, eight TD) and Cody Wilson (48, 526, three TD). Also, four starters and 94 career starts return along the offensive line.
The defense will be much better with eight returning starters. That includes its top two tacklers in first-team All-MAC SS Jahleel Addae (107 tackles, four INT) and junior FS Avery Cunningham (79 tackles).
Central Michigan got off to a solid start this year with a 38-27 victory over SE Missouri State in a game that was more of a blowout than the score would indicate. The Chippewas outgained SEMS 496-308 for the game. Zurlon Tipton had a monster day on the ground, rushing for 180 yards and three scores. Anthony Garland added 102 yards and a touchdown.
I was not big on Michigan State coming into the season, and in their opener they looked like a team that is down this year. The Spartans were down heading into the 4th quarter in their opener against a Boise State team that returned just seven starters. They got a touchdown to win 17-13, but this team clearly misses the departed Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
The Spartans bring back just five starters on offense. They lose Cousins and their top four receivers from last season, including BJ Cunningham (79, 1,306, 12 TD). New QB Andrew Maxwell was horrible against Boise State, completing 22 of 38 passes for 248 yards with three interceptions. The Spartans are going to be too predictable this season without a proven QB under center. I look for CMU to put eight in the box to try and shut down RB Le'Veon Bell.
Central Michigan always seems to play Michigan State tough, and they upset the Spartans on the road 29-27 in 2009. The Chippewas are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spartans, only losing twice by more than 17 points in those 10 contests.
This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on a home team (C MICHIGAN) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 16 total starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. Bet Central Michigan Saturday.
|09-08-12||Ball State +27.5 v. Clemson||27-52||Win||100||90 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Letdown GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +27.5
The Clemson Tigers are way overvalued Saturday after beating Auburn 26-19 in their opener. After a huge rivalry game, this is definitely a letdown spot for the Tigers. As we saw last year, Clemson was prone to letdowns late in the season.
The Tigers have excellent skill players offensively which "wows" bettors. But they have a lot of weaknesses along the offensive line and on defense. I can't see them blowing out this underrated Ball State team by four touchdowns or more.
Ball State went a respectable 6-6 last season. It brings back 13 starters from that team, including many of its best players. QB Keith Wenning returns after completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Leading rusher Jahwan Edwards (786 yards, 11 TD) returns, as do four starters and 115 career starts along the offensive line.
The defense welcomes back wo of its best players in senior LB Travis Freeman (#1 tackler, 134 tackles, 6 for loss) and junior DT Nathan Ollie (42 tackles, 6 sacks). This is going to be one of the most improved stop units in the entire country.
Ball State was impressive in its opener, beating an underrated Eastern Michigan team 37-26 at home. This game was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate considering the Cardinals outgained the Eagles 596-366 for the game. Wenning threw for 267 yards, while Edwards rushed for 200 yards and three touchdowns. This offense can come close to keeping pace with Clemson.
The Cardinals are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 road games. Ball State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ball State Saturday.
|09-08-12||Auburn v. Mississippi State -3||10-28||Win||100||90 h 33 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Mississippi State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -3
The Mississippi State Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite at home over the Auburn Tigers Saturday. The Bulldogs want revenge from a 41-34 road loss to the Tigers last season in a game in which Mississippi State outgained Auburn 531-381 and clearly should have won that contest.
Mississippi State will have its revenge in a big way at home this time around. It returns 12 starters and most of its top players from last season. Junior QB Tyler Russell threw for 1,034 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions over four starts and nine games last season. He has his top three receivers back and should be better in 2012.
The defense returns seven starters from a stop unit that yielded just 19.7 points and 351 total yards per game against a brutal schedule a year ago. Leading the way in 2012 will be senior LB Cameron Lawrence (#1 tackler, 123 tackles, 6 for loss, two INT), senior CB Johnthan Banks (71 tackles, eight for loss, five INT), junior LB Deontae Skinner (69 tackles, 9 for loss) and senior DT Josh Boyd (51 tackles, 4.5 sacks).
Mississippi State looked great in its opener, beating Jackson State 56-9 at home. The same cannot be said for Auburn, which lost 19-26 to Clemson in a game that should have been a much bigger blowout. The Tigers were outgained 528-374 for the game, giving up huge chunks of yardage defensively. Auburn QB Kiehl Frazier was awful, completing just 11 of 27 passes for 194 yards with one touchdown an one interception against a weak Clemson defense. The Bulldogs have a much stronger defense than Clemson, which is not good news for Frazier.
The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Mississippi State Saturday.
|09-08-12||Penn State +10 v. Virginia||16-17||Win||100||90 h 33 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +10
After losing 14-24 to Ohio in their opener, the Penn State Nittany Lions are showing tremendous value at Virginia Saturday. Penn State led 14-3 in that game, but a fluke Ohio pass that went off a defenders' hands and ended up in a long touchdown by the Bobcats really swung the momentum the other way. With what these players have been through this offseason, they are resilient and will bounce back Saturday.
Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. It went 8-5 last year, but with just 12 starters back, the Cavaliers are not going to be as good. They lose five of their top eight tacklers on defense and will be very vulnerable on that side of the ball.
While Penn State played a solid Ohio team in its opener, Virgina played Richmond and didn't really look all that sharp. The Cavaliers won 43-19 and won't be as battle-tested as the Nittany Lions coming into this one. Virginia is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. Roll with Penn State Saturday.