15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 221

The Utah Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost, and the Jazz will struggle offensively tonight.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Hornets last nine games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.  The Jazz and their opponents have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games, including 204 or fewer combined points in three of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +5.5

Loyola-Chicago is the most overrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Ramblers 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The wins weren't impressive as they came by 2 as 10.5-point favorites over USF, by 12 as 24-point favorites over Canisius and by 11 at lowly La Salle.

They suffered three outright upset losses, and against the best teams they faced they lost by 10 on a neutral to San Francisco, by 19 at home to VCU and by 36 at Saint Joseph's in their last game over the weekend.

Rhode Island is 13-3 this season.  Two of the three losses came against two of the better teams in the Atlantic 10 in Duquesne and George Washington.  They have upset wins over Providence and George Mason.

The Rams are better everywhere when you look at the metrics, especially on defense where they are 72nd while the Ramblers are 136th.  The Ramblers are also one of the worst teams in the country in FT shooting (64.8%), which could easily come into play here.  Bet Rhode Island Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois-Chicago ML -115

Illinois-Chicago is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley.  The Flames have gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are 6-2 SU in their last eight games with 5 outright upsets, including an upset of Drake.

Their two losses came by a combined 6 points to Bradley and Belmont. Murray State is just 4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS in its last nine games.  But the Racers are getting some respect after winning and covering their last three games.  

I just am not a fan of Murray State head coach Steve Prohm.  I think the Racers will be fat and happy tonight heading into this game. Illinois-Chicago will be pissed off after losing basically at the buzzer to Bradley after leading that game the entire way. I look for the Flames to rebound tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley OVER 154.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games overall. In those 13 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 12 of them.  

That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 154.5-point total.  So this total of 154.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 8th in adjusted tempo and 285th in adjusted defense.

Bradley is a very good offensive team ranking 18th in effective FG percentage, and 3rd in 3-point percentage.  Each of the last three meetings between Bradley & Indiana State have seen 156 or more points at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12.5

The Boston Celtics have been overvalued all season after winning the NBA title last season.  They are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  In their last two games, the Celtics lost outright by 17 as 11.5-point home favorites to the Kings and only won by 1 over the Pelicans as 14.5-point home favorites.

Toronto has been much more competitive at home this season going 8-13 SU but 13-7-1 ATS.  They just upset the Warriors in their last home game.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Raptors haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last seven home meetings with Boston.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing Toronto pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Raptors OVER 229.5

The Toronto Raptors rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating so they profile as an OVER team. The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of Immanuel Quickley. They will control the tempo playing at home and push the pace.

The Celtics are also fully healthy and rank 2nd in offensive rating.  They are tough to tame on that end with all their firepower when healthy.  Boston went for 239 combined points with the Pelicans last time out.

Toronto went for 237 combined points with Detroit & 258 with Cleveland in two of their last three games.  This total just feels a little short given how healthy both teams are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +10

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force over the weekend.

Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from an 83-77 loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on December 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and are very live underdogs.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Lobos.  They are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall and coming off a dominant 14-point home win over San Diego State.  That sets them up for a letdown and sandwich spot with a big game against Boise State on deck.  The Lobos won't be that motivated to beat San Jose State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* Nuggets/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Mavericks and Nuggets.  Points will be very hard to come by in the rematch with these teams so familiar with one another as this is actually their 4th and final meeting of the season now.

The total closed 232 in that first meeting and the Nuggets won 112-101 for just 213 combined points.  The Nuggets actually shot well from the floor too at 49%, while the Mavericks shot 41% overall and 35% from 3.

No question the Mavericks could see some positive shooting regression with the chance that Kyrie Irving returns from an illness, but they are still without Luka Doncic.  I don't think the Mavs will be hitting on all cylinders offensively tonight by any means.

The Mavs have been relying on defense without their stars as the UNDER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in all four games.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Nuggets last six games overall with 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in all six games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Bucks OVER 228

The Sacramento Kings have De'Aron Fox back and healthy right now and they are rolling offensively with him in the lineup.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kings last five games overall where they have scored at least 114 points in all five games, and 123 or more in four of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks have both Giannis and Lillard healthy right now and they are the keys to their success offensively.  The Bucks are also playing well on that end averaging 116.0 points per game in their last four games.  They are coming off 246 combined points with the Knicks in their last game.

I love OVERS in these non-conference games with teams that aren't familiar with one another because it tends to favor offense over defense.  Well, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Kings and Bucks with 233 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Hawks OVER 234

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 21st in defensive rating.  They will be ready to run tonight after having the last four days off, and they will control the tempo playing at home.

The Suns have the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy right now and they thrive on offense when that's the case.  The Suns have scored 120, 114 and 123 points in their last three games coming in.  But this is a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 238, 243 and 249 points in their last three meetings, and 232 or more points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 162.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 2nd in adjusted tempo, 6th in average length of offensive possession and 2nd in offensive efficiency this season.  They play fast and they do it as efficiently as anyone in the country.

Alabama is coming off a 94-88 win at Texas A&M for 182 combined points.  In tehir last two home games, the Crimson Tide won 107-79 over Oklahoma for 186 combined points and 105-82 over South Dakota State for 187 combined points.

Ole Miss has gone under the total in seven of their last eight games, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Rebels rank 31st in offensive efficiency and have the ability to keep up with Alabama in a shootout.  They rank 94th in average length of offensive possession so they like to get shots up quickly, too.

In their lone meeting last season, Alabama beat Ole Miss 103-88 for 191 combined points.  It will be more of the same in their first meeting of the 2024-25 season tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Texas A&M/Kentucky ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 158

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of possession on offense and 3rd in offensive efficiency.  They are averaging 89.2 points per game this season.

Texas A&M is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season.  The Aggies rank 29th in adjusted offense and they are playing faster ranking 130th in average length of offensive possession.

The Aggies lost 94-88 at home to Alabama for 182 combined points and won 80-78 at Oklahoma for 158 combined points in their last two games despite being without Wade Taylor, who is likely out again tonight.

Kentucky is coming off a 95-90 win at Mississippi State for 185 combined points.  The Wildcats beat Florida 106-100 in their last home game for 206 combined points in regulation.  

Texas A&M beat Kentucky 97-87 in their last meeting last season for 184 combined points.  They combined for 178 points at the end of regulation in their previous meeting last season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +8

The Auburn Tigers just lost their best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury in their last game.  They struggled to get by a very bad South Carolina team 66-63 as 16-point favorites.  Broom is out again tonight, and the Tigers are on upset alert without him.

Mississippi State (14-2) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency.  They have very few weaknesses.

The Bulldogs have actually played their best basketball on the road going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They beat SMU 84-79 as 1.5-point road favorites, beat Memphis 79-66 as 2-point road favorites and topped Vanderbilt 76-64 as 2-point road favorites.  They should not be 8-point underdogs tonight without Broome.  

This has been a tightly-contested rivalry with eight of the last 10 meetings either decided in OT or by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Mississippi State Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis +10

It was going to take some time for the Saint Louis Billikens to gel as a team.  They have a first-year head coach in Josh Schertz from Indiana State bringing over his best transfers to pair with what was left over for the Billikens.

After opening 7-6 SU & 2-9 ATS, the Billikens have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall and have gelled in a big way.  They beat Fordham 88-63 as a PK on the road, beat Saint Joseph's 73-57 as 2-point home favorites and beat St. Bonaventure 73-68 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now the Billikens have had the last five days off and will be fresh and ready to give VCU a run for its money as double-digit underdogs tonight.  VCU recently lost to that same St. Bonaventure team and only beat Fordham by 12 at home while Saint Louis beat them by 25 on the road.  That gives these teams some recent common opponents and shows the Billikens are playing the better basketball right now.  Bet St. Louis Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY in Villanova/Xavier UNDER 146

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team and has been for years.  The Wildcats rank 348th out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo.  They are 327th in average length of possession on offense and 322nd on defense.

The Xavier Musketeers are a much improved defensive team this season.  They rank 61st in adjusted defense.  They make opponents work to get shots ranking 312th in average length of possession on defense.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and would be 9-1 in the last 10 meetings if not for OT.  Villanova and Xavier have combined for 131 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 7-2 in Grizzlies last nine games overall with 229 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 234 or more in seven of them.

That 234-point effort came against the Rockets on January 9th, and now they play the Rockets again less than a week later.  But that game saw an unusual low-scoring 4th quarter with just 41 combined points in the 4th.  That's not going to happen again, and you can see the potential for this game to be even more high-scoring.

Houston shot 43% as a team in that game and 24-of-41 (59%) from the FT line as well.  Memphis shot just 31% from 3-point range and also missed 9 FT. Houston has gone for 234 or more combined points in three consecutive games now.  These teams have combined for at least 234 points in three consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Rams +8.5/Bills -2.5. I have since added 6-point teasers with the Rams +8.5 paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better and Chiefs -2.5 or better.

The Los Angeles Rams rested starters in Week 18 and will be fresh as a result.  They returned from their bye early in the season and have been almost fully healthy since.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their 11 games since the bye week excluding Week 18 when they rested starters.  Now they essentially are coming off a bye week and carrying that momentum into the NFC Wild Card Round.  

The Rams will be playing for the city of Los Angeles and the fires, so they will be extra inspired.  And I don't think the venue change to Arizona makes much of a difference.  The Rams don't have much home-field advantage anyway, and they have been great on the road this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  They are also used to playing in Arizona, and they have decided to use the visiting locker room so they are familiar and comfortable.

Matthew Stafford has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last seven games and I trust him a lot more than Sam Darnold in this one.  He is great at beating the blitz, and the Vikings blitz as much as anyone in the NFL.  Sean McVay is smart enough to run short crossing routes to beat the blitz.  Puka Nacua will have a huge game.

The Vikings were 'all in' in Week 18 playing for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  Darnold had his worst game of the season consistently overthrowing receivers.  The Vikings lost 31-9 at Detroit.  They squandered several scoring opportunities due to Darnold's ineptitude.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank playing all out for a 13th consecutive week since having an early bye in Week 6.

That was basically the first playoff game that Darnold has ever played in with pressure at the highest level.  And now this will officially be Darnold's first playoff game.  NFL teams with a QB making their postseason debut against a team with a QB that has played a playoff game previously are 19-37-1 ATS since 2002.

We have already seen this matchup once with the Rams beating the Vikings 30-20 at home as 3-point underdogs on October 24th.  This was a dominant effort for Los Angeles with 386 total yards compared to just 276 for Minnesota, so the Rams outgained the Vikings by 110 yards.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here.

Stafford went 25-of-34 for 279 yards and 4 TD with one INT in the win.  Nacua had 7 receptions for 106 yards as well.  Brian Flores isn't going to change what he does now and stop blitzing.  I also think Darnold will be under duress for four quarters playing behind one of the most suspect offensive lines in the league.  Head coach O'Connell can't help himself and keeps running deep routes for his receivers giving Darnold no outlets, and even when he has them he doesn't see them half the time.  

Los Angeles has allowed 14 points or fewer in four of its last five games not including Week 18.  The Rams have a great pass rush and the Vikings are weak at the tackle position in terms of pass blocking.  They haven't really recovered since losing LT Darrisaw as his replacement in LT Robinson is one of the worst pass blockers in the league.  

Look for DT Fiske (8.5 sacks, 10 TF), LB Young (7.5 sacks, 12 TFL) and LB Verse (4.5 sacks, 11 TFL) to get after Darnold consistently and make life tough on him like the Lions did last week.  And that's a Lions defense that is one of the worst in the NFL in their current state.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rams Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 222.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 223 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 222.5 is very low for a game involving the Wizards.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a 127-125 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, who also like to play fast like the Wizards.  They have played a brutal schedule of opposing defensive teams with six of their last nine games coming against teams that rank Top 7 in defensive rating.  Now they get a reprieve here and will hang a big number on the Wizards to lead us to cashing this OVER 222.5 ticket.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with 220 or more combined points in all 12 meetings, including 225 or more in 11 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Hornets/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.9 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court.  He is healthy and on the court right now for the Hornets, and so is Brandon Miller (21.2 PPG).  The Hornets have battled injuries all season but are about as healthy as they have been all year right now.

The Hornets also come in on four days' rest, so they have a lot of energy and will be looking to push the pace today behind Ball.  I think we are going to get a shootout with the Suns, who are also fully healthy right now with Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic all on the court.

The Suns have gone for 123 and 114 points in their last two games with all of these guys.  They will be looking to avenge a 115-104 loss at Charlotte on the 2nd of a back-to-back on January 7th.  It took a miracle to keep that game under the 225.5-point total.

Indeed, the Suns shot 39-of-92 (42%) from the field and 8-of-33 (24%) from 3-point range in that game while the Hornets shot 38-of-98 (39%) from the field and 13-of-47 (28%) from 3-point range.  It still saw 219 combined points.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch as they cannot possibly shoot any worse.  It was played at a fast pace and this one will be, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Wizards OVER 231

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They host an Oklahoma City Thunder team that also likes to play fast ranking 9th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.

This has been a very high-scoring series.  The OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings with 228 or more combined points in all six meetings, including 237 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4

The Philadelphia Eagles are the most complete team in the NFC.  They are as healthy as they could possibly be after resting their starters in Week 18.  Jalen Hurts returns this week, he has his full compliment of weapons, and amazingly the Eagles have all 22 starters from Week 1 healthy and on the field heading into the playoffs.

Healthy is a big issue for the Green Bay Packers.  They played their starters in the final two weeks of the season despite both games being pretty much meaningless.  Jordan Love got knocked out of their Week 18 game against the Bears, and they lost his favorite deep target in Christian Watson to a season-ending injury in that game to boot.

The Packers are limping into the postseason.  They managed just 271 total yards in a loss to the Vikings and were upset 24-22 by the Bears in Week 18 as 10-point favorites.  Love will try to play through a right elbow injury.  Watson and his 290 receptions for 620 yards is out.  Four starters are questionable on defense in LB Walker, LB Cooper, SS Williams and NB Bullard.  They are without top CB Jaire Alexander to a season-ending injury.

The Eagles have quietly gone 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The only game they lost Hurts got injured early against the Commanders in a 36-33 defeat on the road.  Their defense is elite allowing 20 points or fewer in 11 of their last 13 games during this stretch.  And their offense has taken off since both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith returned to the lineup after a Week 5 bye.  They have scored at least 24 points in 10 of their last 12 games and one game they didn't was in Week 18 when they rested their starters and started a 3rd-string QB.

Love's yards per pass attempt has dipped nearly 2.0 yards when he has been without Watson.  He throws the 2nd-most deep balls in the NFL, but most of that is due to having Watson on the field.  I think the Eagles can bottle up this Green Bay offense, which just hasn't been clicking down the stretch especially without Watson.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are without their two best players in Doncic (28.1 PPG) and Irving (24.3 PPG).  Points are going to be hard to come by for the Mavericks until these two return, and they are going to have to rely a lot more on defense to stay competitive.

They have done a good job of that beating the Lakers 118-97 for 215 combined points and the Blazers 117-111 for 228 combined points in their last two games without them.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Mavericks last six gmaes overall with 228 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.

The Nuggets have their three best players listed as questionable in Jokic (31.6 PPG), Murray (19.0 PPG) and Gordon (13.7 PPG) tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so don't be surprised if any of these guys sit, especially Murray who got injured last night in a 124-105 win over the Nets for 229 combined points.  

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games.  This is an early 3:10 EST tip and these games tend to be lower scoring as NBA teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Broncos/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

Josh Allen came out and said the Buffalo Bills were holding things back offensively since being locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  I think they will open it up against Denver and hang a big number here in leading the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense averaging 30.9 points per game.  Amazingly, Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 10 of its 11 games overall in games that Allen has started and finished.  I fully expect the Bills to get 30-plus in this one, and if they do we are going to only need 17-plus from Denver, which I think we get.

The Broncos have one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have scored 24 or more points in seven consecutive games while averaging a whopping 32.6 points per game in those seven games.  Head coach Sean Payton is an offensive genius and is getting everything he can out of Bo Nix.  Payton hasn't shown all his cards yet and is saving them for the playoffs just like the Bills are.

The Broncos have good defensive numbers overall, but that is largely due to playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have stepped up in class they have been shredded.  The Ravens put up 41 points on them, the Browns and Jameis Winston put up 32 points and 552 total yards on them, the Chargers put up 34 points and the Bengals put up 30 points on them.

The Bills have had a similar fate defensively.  Since Week 9, the Bills are 30th in success rate defensively.  They allowed 27 points to Miami, 44 to the Rams and 42 to the Lions during this stretch.  The Bills are very soft up the middle defensively, and the Broncos are No. 1 in the league in run block win rate.  Nix should get plenty of help from their running game.  

The OVER is 7-2 in Bills last nine games overall with 50 or more combined points in six of the eight games started and finished by Allen.  The OVER is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 games overall not including their Week 18 game where Kansas City rested all of its starters.  I expect the Bills to get into the 30's and the Broncos to get into the 20's.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Irvine +6.5

UC-San Diego has been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball over the last two seasons.  But this is where it has finally caught up to them as they are now being asked to lay 6.5 points to a team I believe to be better than them in UC-Irvine.

UC-Irvine is 14-2 SU & 11-4 ATS this season while UC-San Diego is 14-2 SU & 11-3 ATS this season.  This line should be much closer to PK.  These Big West teams have almost no home-court advantage, and home court is consistently given too much credit in this conference.  These teams are almost dead even power rating wise.  There's clearly value with the Anteaters tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* UCF/Arizona Big 12 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 156

This game between UCF and Arizona will see a ton of possessions as both teams like to get up shots in a hurry.  Arizona ranks 60th in adjusted tempo and 46th in average length of offensive possession while also ranking 15th in adjusted offense.  That's a potent combination as the Wildcats are averaging 84.1 points per game this season.

The UCF Knights are averaging 78.5 points per game this season.  They rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 41st in average length of offensive possession.  They scored 87 points in their last road game at Texas Tech.  I think both teams have a chance of getting in the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Timberwolves OVER 228.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 6-2 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 229 or more combined points in seven of those eight games, including 234 or more in six of them.

I think the books have adjusted this total down due to the Minnesota Timberwolves going under the total in each of their last three games.  But they played two dead nuts under teams in the Clippers and Magic, plus the injury-ravaged Pelicans.

The Timberwolves had gone 5-0 OVER in their previous five games against teams that have a pulse on offense.  But they also faced some great defensive teams during that stretch against Houston, Boston and OKC.  This has the making of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/St. Thomas OVER 168

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 12-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 111th in adjusted offense and 352nd in adjusted defense.

The St. Thomas Tommies also profile as an OVER team going 12-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are 147th in adjusted tempo and amazingly 62nd in adjusted offense despite playing in the Summit.  They are 227th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Oral Roberts OVER 160

The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 8-1 in their last nine lined games with 155 or more combined points in eight of the nine, including 165 or more combined points in five consecutive games.  They rank 347th in adjusted defense.

Speaking of poor defensive teams, Oral Roberts ranks 360th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Eagles like to play fast.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games overall combining for 160 with Oklahoma State, 157 with Kansas City and a whopping 206 in regulation with North Dakota State last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Nevada/Fresno State OVER 147.5

After being a dead nuts UNDER team for years, the Fresno State Bulldogs got a new head coach in Vance Walberg and a new up-tempo philosophy this season.  Books have struggled to keep up with the drastic change.

Indeed, the Bulldogs are a dead nuts OVER team going 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 155 or more combined points in all five games.  They rank 5th in adjusted tempo this season.

Nevada is a dead nuts under team that plays at a slow tempo.  But that's why this total has been adjusted down too much.  Fresno State will control the tempo playing at home, and Nevada won't mind running with them as they'll be motivated to end a four-game losing streak and run up the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest -2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next three games without him to fall to 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-11 SU in its last 12 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play after a 15-point home loss to rival Florida State last time out.

Wake Forest is playing well going 4-1 SU in its last five games with its only loss coming at Clemson.  That includes a 10-point road win at Syracuse and an 18-point home win over NC State.  The Demon Deacons have been off for the last week and will have the rest advantage over the Hurricanes, who just lost on Wednesday at home to FSU and will only have two days in between games.

Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is out for the Hurricanes after missing their last five games, which is a big reason for their recent struggles.  Divine Ogochukwu (5.6 PPG) is questionable as well.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Suns OVER 228

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-4 in Jazz last 16 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games. This total of 228 is very low for a game involving the Jazz, who rank 29th in defensive rating.

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  But they rank 22nd in defensive rating this season.  They are coming off a 123-115 home win over the Atlanta Hawks for 238 combined points.  It should be more of the same against the Jazz tonight.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Suns with 230 or more combined points in all six meetings.  They combined for 260 points in their last meeting this season.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Valparaiso +8

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  The Beacons are 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The losses were as impressive as the wins during this stretch.

Valparaiso only lost by 6 as 10-point home dogs to Drake and by 6 as 14-point road dogs at Bradley.  They also upset Northern Iowa at home, and Missouri State and Western Michigan on the road during this stretch.

This is a massive letdown spot for Murray State.  The Racers are now getting a lot of respect after upsetting both Drake and Northern Iowa on the road in their last two games.  They had gone 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their previous six games with their lone win coming by 3 over a bad Loyola-Chicago team.  They were upset by Illinois State in their last home game.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -5

I love the spot for St. Joe's today hosting Loyola Chicago.  The Hawks will be highly motivated for a victory after two consecutive road losses to Saint Louis and Duquesne, which are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10.

Now the Hawks are back home today and taking on one of the most overrated teams in all of college basketball in Loyola-Chicago.  The Ramblers are 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The three wins came at home against USF by 2 as 10.5-point favorites, at home against Canisius by 12 as 24-point favorites and on the road at lowly La Salle as 2-point favorites.  The losses are concerning as they were upset by Oakland, College of Charleston and Murray State and lost to VCU by 19 and San Francisco by 10.  Bet St. Joseph's Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -1.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally get a reprieve today against the worst team in the Mountain West in Air Force.

The Falcons are 3-12 SU this season.  Their three wins have come against Jacksonville State, Mercyhurt and Stony Brook.  They are legitimately one of the worst teams in all of college basketball.  They lost by 18 to Boise State, 19 to UNLV and 29 to San Diego State recently.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois-Chicago ML +125

Illinois-Chicago is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  The Flames are 11-5 SU & 9-4 ATS this season. They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins over Illinois State, Seattle, Little Rock and Missouri State.

The most impressive win of the bunch was handing 12-0 Drake its first loss of the season in a 74-70 upset home win as 6-point dogs.  That gives these teams a recent common opponent as Bradley just lost 64-57 as 2-point home favorites to Drake.

It's been a bad stretch for the overrated Braves who are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Valpo by 6 as 14-point home favorites, Indiana State by 1 as 3.5-point road favorites and Missouri State by 9 as 11.5-point home favorites.  The Flames just beat Missouri State by 17 on the road last game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Illinois-Chicago on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota State/Denver OVER 155.5

North Dakota State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bison are 12-3 OVER in all games this season and scoring 82.6 points per game.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 154 or more combined points in all five games, including 160 or more in four of them.

What makes them such an OVER team is that they rank 30th in adjusted offense and 324th in adjusted defense.  They take on a Denver team that ranks 355th in adjusted defense.  So don't expect either team to be getting many stops here.

Denver is 5-0 OVER in its lat five games overall with 157 or more combined points in all five games.  This total is too short today folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech ML -125

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team, and not just any ranked team but the No. 3 team in the country in Iowa State.  The Texas Tech Red Raiders are favored for good reason at home today.

Texas Tech just got Toppin back in the lineup and is at full strength.  The Red Raiders promptly went on the road and crushed Utah 93-65 and upset BYU 72-67 in their last two games coming in.

Iowa State only beat Utah by 23 at home in its last game while Texas Tech beat Utah by 28 on the road to give these teams a common opponent.  This will be by far Iowa State's toughest road game of the season after winning by 9 at Iowa and by 10 at Colorado in its previous two road games.  This is a big step up in class for the Cyclones here.  Bet Texas Tech on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Texas OVER 147

The reason Iowa State is a national championship contender this season is improvement on offense.  The Cyclones are actually the 6th-most efficient offensive team in the country.  They are scoring 86.3 points per game.

Texas Tech is 8th in adjusted offense, so this is a matchup of two Top 10 offenses with a total of only 147.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in effective FG% and 11th in 3-point percentage.  They are scoring 85.5 points per game.  The OVER is 9-4 in all Texas Tech games this season.

These teams combined for 156 points in their lone meeting last season.  This thing should sail OVER the number again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +5

What more does Georgetown have to do to get some respect? The Hoyas are one of the most improved teams in the country and the books have failed to catch up to just how improved they are this season.

The Hoyas are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The lone losses came on the road at West Virginia by 13 and at Marquette by 8 as 13.5-point dogs.  They beat Xavier by 6 and Creighton by 24 in their two Big East home games this season.

UConn finally had its lucky 8-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, losing 68-66 at Villanova.  Five of the eight wins during that streak came by 6 points or less, so they were simply fortunate in close games.

The Huskies have struggled since losing 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago.  Prior to losing at Villanova, they only beat Providence by 3 at home as 14.5-point favorites.  The Hoyas are live underdogs today.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* Big East TOTAL OF THE DAY on UConn/Georgetown UNDER 143.5

UConn ranks 318th in adjusted tempo this season playing as one of the slowest teams in all of college basketball.  The Huskies just lost 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago and will be without him today.

The Georgetown Hoyas are improved this season but it's largely due to defense rather than offense.  The Hoyas are 119th in adjusted offense but 29th in adjusted defense.  They have been without second-leading scorer Jayden Epps (14.7 PPG) in their last couple games and he is questionable to return today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Indiana State OVER 170

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-2 OVER in its 14 games this season.  The Belmont Bruins are also a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  This game shapes up to be one of the highest scoring games in college basketball in 2025.

Indiana State ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 275th in adjusted defense.  Belmont ranks 29th in adjusted tempo and 251st in adjusted defense.  Both teams are much better on the offensive end than they are on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Texas Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio State -6

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon last round as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Texas benefited from a very easy regular season schedule.  The Longhorns lost both meetings with Georgia when they had to step up in class.  And they have been fortunate to make it this far in the 12-team playoff.

Texas only led Clemson by 7 in the 4th quarter before a 77-yard run clinched a 38-24 victory.  Cade Klubnik kept coming throwing for 336 yards and 3 TD against Texas to expose their secondary, which is something I believe Howard can do as well.

Texas had no business beating Arizona State last round.  The Longhorns were actually outgained 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, or by 135 total yards.  But ASU failed in the red zone and in the kicking game which was the difference.  They threw for 296 yards and rushed for 214 on this Texas defense despite being without their best receiver.

The Longhorns were held to 53 rushing yards on 30 carries by Arizona State.  And that is going to be a problem for them against this Ohio State defense.  The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game, 1st in total defense at 244.6 yards per game and 1st at 4.0 yards per play.  They allow just 92.2 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  

Texas isn't going to have any success on the ground, and Quinn Ewers is one of the most overrated QB's in the country in my opinion.  He was exposed twice against Georgia this season, and he'll be exposed against Ohio State again here.  Ohio State's balance on offense will also be a big difference in this contest with Howard having another big game through the air.  The Buckeyes have no weaknesses.  They roll again.  Bet Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.

15* Thunder/Knicks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have done a 180 becoming one of the best offensive teams in the NBA while simultaneously slipping a lot on defense.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavs and Celtics.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 8th in offensive rating and like to play fast.  They are more of an OVER team right now without Alex Caruso, who is one of their best defenders but doesn't provide much on offense.  They just got in a 129-122 shootout with the Cavs last game for 251 combined points, and it will be more of the same against the Knicks tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 224 or more combined points in all six meetings between the Knicks and Thunder.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Celtics OVER 229.5

Note: Fox has since been listed out since I posted this pick.  I would no longer play it.

De'Aaron Fox was seen participating in shootaround in Boston Friday.  They are an OVER team with him and an UNDER team without him.  I'm expecting him to play tonight, which is why I added this OVER 229.5

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating this season only behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Kings rank 7th in offensive rating.  These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and they are both fully healthy right now.

The Kings have scored at least 122 points in five of their last six games, and the OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games.  The Celtics are coming off three consecutive unders which are keeping this total lower than it should be.  They played the Nuggets without Jokic, the best defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder and the 3rd-best defensive team in the NBA in the Rockets during this three-game stretch.

Both teams are fresh, healthy and ready to run.  The Celtics have had the last two days off, while the Kings have had the last three days off.  I expect this game to be played at a very frenetic pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +6

The Utah Jazz are exactly the type of team you can make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor record but they show up to play every night.  And that has especially been the case of late as the Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with four outright upset victories.

Without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat have no business being 6-point road favorites over the Jazz tonight.  The Heat were 9-point home favorites over the Jazz in their first meeting this season and lost 136-100, failing to cover the spread by 45 points.

This is a very tough spot for the Heat.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  They had to go to double-OT against Sacramento three nights ago to add to their fatigue.  Now they have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City, and I don't expect them to handle it very well tonight.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Jazz OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 15 games. This total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  

What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 12 consecutive games, including 120 or more in six of them.

The Miami Heat don't miss much offensively without Jimmy Butler, but they do miss him defensively.  They have had to go more small ball and they shoot a ton of 3-pointers, which makes them more of an OVER team.  They have fallen off defensively allowing 120 or more points in four of their last seven games.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  That includes 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  They have combined for 226 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 233 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  The Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 230 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

The Phoenix Suns are at full strength right now and a deadly offensive team when that's the case, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.  Booker, Beal and Durant are all healthy as are all their role players with the exception of Royce O'Neale.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 243 and 249 points in their last two meetings, and 232 or more points in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Notre Dame/Penn State Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State +2.5

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a big rest and preparation advantage over Notre Dame.  The Nittany Lions played on Tuesday last week while the Fighting Irish had their game pushed back a day due to the terrorist situation in New Orleans.  They played on Thursday, so the Nittany Lions have a two-day rest advantage.

In a game that is close to a toss up, I'll take any advantage I can get.  I like the fact that Penn State coaches and players got to watch Notre Dame play on Thursday night.  They would have been paying as close attention as any game they have watched other than their own all season.

James Franklin is quickly proving he can win big games with two impressive wins in the 12-team playoff.  The Nittany Lions won 38-10 over SMU as 9-point home favorites and a 31-14 over Boise State as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  They have played the tougher schedule which ranks 33rd in the country.

Their defense continues to shine ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per game, 4th in total defense at 288.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.6 yards per play.  Their offense is the best of the Franklin era ranking 10th in the country at 6.6 yards per play with tremendous balance behind first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas.

Notre Dame has benefited from playing the 54th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Fighting Irish also benefited from getting to play an overrated Indiana team in the opening round and a Georgia team that was missing their starting QB.  I think the Irish are grossly overvalued after going a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

A turnover at the 2-yard line followed by a 98-yard run by Jeremiyah Love changed the complexion of that Indiana game early.  A sack fumble followed by a TD right before half on a short field changed the complexion of the Georgia game.  That was followed up by a 98-yard kickoff return TD by Notre Dame coming out of intermission which completely changed the game.

As you can see, big plays by Notre Dame were the reasons for their first two wins in the playoffs.  I don't see them getting those kinds of big plays against a well-coached, stout defense like Penn State.  The Fighting Irish only had 14 first downs and 244 total yards against Georgia.  They have a great defense, but their offense is a weakness.

QB Riley Leonard is known more for what he can do with his legs than his arm.  He threw for just 90 yards on 24 attempts against Georgia.  Star RB Love (1,076 yards, 16 TD) is clearly hobbled and rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries against Georgia.  He won't get the benefit of extra rest considering he has just six days off in between games.  Not to mention the Fighting Irish are without their best DL Rylie Mills (7.5 sacks), who got hurt against Indiana.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively, but the difference is the Nittany Lions have more playmakers on offense and a QB that can actually stretch the field.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver in star TE Tyler Warren.  The Nittany Lions will bottle up Leonard and Love and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Penn State in the Orange Bowl Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma PK

Oklahoma (13-1) finally suffered its first loss of the season in blowout fashion at Alabama over the weekend.  You could see it coming as it was the first true road game for the Sooners against one of the best teams in the country.

But now the Sooners are back home where they are 8-0 SU this season and 22-4 SU dating back to the beginning of last season.  They take on a Texas A&M team in a letdown spot off a 20-point blowout home win over rival Texas over the weekend.

This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season for the Aggies.  They lost 64-61 at UCF as 6-point favorites in their season opener.  That's a UCF team that just lost by 51 at home to Kansas in their last game.

This will be Texas A&M's toughest test of the season.  Making matters worse for the Aggies is that they will be without their best player in leading scorer Wade Taylor (15.7 PPG, 4.8 APG).  That's a huge loss for them and it's not being factored into the line enough.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12

The Raptors have managed to stay competitive despite dealing with a plethora of injuries all season.  There is a lot of talent on this roster when fully healthy, and the Raptors are fully healthy for the first time all season tonight.

The New York Knicks are a tired team and it is showing going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost outright to the short-handed Magic last game as double-digit home favorites.  They lost by 13 at Chicago as 5.5-point favorites.

Tom Thibodeau keeps playing his starters 40-plus minutes on a nightly basis.  It is catching up to them in the injury department as both Towns and McBride are questionable to play tonight after sitting out last game.

The Knicks will be playing their 8th game in 13 days, while the Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors will be playing with double-revenge after losing by 5 at home and by 14 on the road to the Knicks in their two meetings in December.  This number is a couple notches too high.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Pistons -7

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire right now.  They have already made a couple big trades and have failed to replace the players they lost.  Making matters worse is that they are without 7 key players right now, including each of their top 4 scorers.

All these injuries and lack of talent have really showed up in their last two games as the Nets lost by 29 at home to the 76ers and by 14 at home to the Pacers.  I don't expect it to go much better for them tonight.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that has quietly gone 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  They are legit playoff contenders sitting at 18-18 on the season.  I don't expect Detroit to have a letdown here considering they have a chance to get above .500 for the first time this season.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 30-4 SU this season including 18-1 SU at home.  They are the healthier, more rested team tonight in this huge matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

While the Cavs will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days, the Thunder will be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  The Thunder are coming off a big comeback home win over the Celtics, setting them up for a big of a letdown spot here.

You won't find a tougher two-game stretch than Boston followed by Cleveland.  This is also the first road game for the Thunder after playing their last five games at home.  This will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida State +2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next two games without him to fall to 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-10 SU in its last 11 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

Florida State has been undervalued going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  That includes 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is a game-time decision for the Hurricanes after missing their last four games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -2.5

The Bradley Braves have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves went 14-3 SU at home last season and they are 8-0 SU at home this season including a win over San Francisco.  They basically just have to win this game to cover this short number against Drake tonight.

The Bulldogs have been a great story getting off to a 12-0 start this season.  But they have been overvalued since, getting upset in each of their last two games at Illinois-Chicago and at home against Murray State as double-digit favorites.  

G Isiah Jackson is questionable for Drake after missing their last game against Murray State.  He starts and plays 28 minutes per game and does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs.  Meanwhile, Bradley is fully healthy coming into this one.

The Braves have had this game circled all offseason.  They will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with Drake.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes were crushed with two consecutive losses the last two years to Drake in the MVC Tournament.  I expect a big effort from the Braves tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova +1

The UConn Huskies have been very fortunate during their current 8-game winning streak.  Five of the eight wins have come by 6 points or less.  That includes a 3-point home win over Providence as 14.5-point favorites last time out.

A big reason the Huskies struggled to put away Providence was because they were without their 2nd-leading scorer in Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) for the first time this season.  McNeely is out again tonight.

Villanova has gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall playing its best basketball of the season.  The two losses came by 1 on a neutral to Maryland and by 7 at Creighton.  The Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, including a 44-point blowout of DePaul last time out.

UConn only won by a single point in their trip to Villanova last season.  The Huskies aren't nearly as strong this season after winning the national title the last two years.  The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country, and I think they get some revenge here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Denver Nuggets are without their best defender in Aaron Gordon right now.  They are a dead nuts OVER team without him having to go small ball by inserting Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in his place.

In their last 22 games, the Nuggets and their opponents have combined for at least 229 points in 17 of them.  Here of late they have gone for 233 or more combined points in five of their last six games, including 259 with the Hawks, 253 with the Jazz, 255 with the Pistons and 284 with the Cavs.  The Nuggets rank 4th in offensive rating on the season.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now for basically the first time all season with only Derrick White listed questionable with an illness.  They are setting records for shooting 3-pointers and rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  When fully healthy they are arguably the best offensive team in the NBA.  They will gladly go small ball to match the Nuggets tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech/BYU OVER 148.5

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Red Raiders are elite on offense ranking 10th in adjusted offense, 1st in effective FG percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage.  They are loaded with 3-point shooters all over the floor.  They have scored at least 76 points in 12 of their 13 games this season.

The BYU Cougars are also pretty elite on offense.  They rank 92nd in average length of possession so they get shots up quickly.  They do so efficiently ranking 29th in adjusted offense, 23rd in effective FG percentage and 62nd in 3-point percentage.

Like Texas Tech, BYU attempts a ton of 3-pointers, and thus this game will see a lot of long rebounds and easy scoring opportunities for both teams in transition.  This total is way too short when you consider Texas Tech and its opponents have combined for at least 151 points in nine of its 13 games this season.  

These teams combined for 163 points in their regular season meeting and 148 in the Big 12 Tournament last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-106 win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  Four starters played at least 31 minutes for the Timberwolves in the win.  They haven't had two days off in a row since December 17-18.  They won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and now Zion Williamson makes his return tonight.  They are only for sure without Brandon Ingram.  This is a very talented roster, and a lot more talented than their 7-29 SU record would indicate.  But because they have such a poor record we are getting great value with them tonight and in the immediate future as long as they are as healthy as they are right now.

The Pelicans are coming off consecutive blowout victories over the Wizards by 12 and 12 points in a home-and-home situation.  They are rested after having yesterday off and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  The spot really favors the home underdog tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Suns/Hornets OVER 222

The Charlotte Hornets have been battling injuries all season.  But they are finally pretty healthy only missing Mann and Grant Williams.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.8 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court, and he is currently healthy right now.  The Hornets also recently got Brandon Miller (21.5 PPG) back from injury.

The Suns are basically fully healthy for the first time all season.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic are all healthy.  They are brining Beal and Nurkic off the bench to help out with their depth issues, and it's working as they just upset the 76ers last night.  They are a deadly offensive team when all these guys are healthy.

The Hornets and Suns have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 3-2-1.  This total of 222 is way too short for a game involving healthy Suns and Hornets teams tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida -3

The Tennessee Vols are 14-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Yet they are underdogs to the Florida Gators tonight.  They are underdogs for good reason as I fully expect the Gators to win and cover and hand the Vols their first loss of the season.

This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season for the Volunteers.  They beat Louisville and got past Illinois 66-64.  This is their toughest road game of the season now against a 13-1 Florida team that is highly motivated coming off its first loss of the season at Kentucky by a final of 106-100.

But now the Gators are back home where they are 7-0 this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy right now with the exception of Dosunmu.  They have quietly been playing some pretty good basketball here of late going 6-4 SU in their last 10 games, including a 139-126 win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Knicks last time out.  They also upset the Celtics and Bucks during this stretch.

The Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have owned the San Antonio Spurs, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes a 139-124 win as 1.5-point dogs in San Antonio in their first meeting this season on December 5th.

I think this is a terrible spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They are coming off a home-and-home series with the Denver Nuggets on Friday and Saturday.  After beating the Nuggets 113-110 on the road Friday, they lost 122-111 (OT) to the Nuggets at home on Saturday.  This has the makings of a flat spot for the Spurs after those two grueling games, and now playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Knicks UNDER 210

The Orlando Magic are without each of their top four scorers in Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  It's safe to say points have been very hard to come by for the Magic without these guys.

Indeed, the Magic are 2-4 SU in their last six games overall while averaging just 94.8 points per game during this six-game stretch.  They rank 29th in the NBA in offensive rating, 5th in defensive rating and 29th in pace over those six games.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team as it is, but especially in their current form.

Both Karl-Anthony Towns (25.3 PPG) and Miles McBride (9.8 PPG) are questionable to play for the Knicks tonight, and Jalen Brunson (25.4 PPG) is playing through a calf injury.  The Knicks aren't in great shape right now either in the injury department.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will already be the 4th meeting between the Knicks and Magic this season and all four have come within the last month.  After a 121-106 win by the Knicks in their first meeting where the Wagner brothers combined for 50 points.  The the last two have been extremely low scoring with just 191 and 193 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the 4th meeting as this one stays well UNDER the 210-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have opened 2025 by beating the Heat by 13 on the road and the Suns by 18 at home to improve to 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Now the Pacers should make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets, who have traded away a few of their best players and are in transition.  Making matters worse for the Nets is their laundry list of injuries right now.

Indeed, the Nets have 8 players on the injury report.  They are without Bogdanovic, Melton (10.3 PPG), Thomas (24.7 PPG) and Johnson (19.5 PPG), and they could be without Russell (12.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Simmons (5.9 PPG, 6.9 APG), who are both questionable to play tonight.  They are basically a G League team right now.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are fully healthy with the exception of Jeramy Grant.  They have gone 3-2 SU in their last five games with an upset home win over the Mavericks and an upset road win over the Bucks as double-digit underdogs.

The Detroit Pistons are getting too much respect now after going 6-1 SU in their last seven games.  They are coming off an outright upset win over the Timberwolves as 6.5-point dogs, setting them up for a big letdown spot here tonight.

Cade Cunningham had 40 points in the win, and he is going to have to shoulder even more of the load moving forward now that Jaden Ivey (17.6 PPG, 4.0 APG) is out with a broken fibula.  Ivey is one of the more underrated players in the league and the Pistons will miss him sooner rather than later.  Amen Thompson (7.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is questionable.

The Blazers own the Pistons going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Their lone loss came by 6 in OT.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight games to the Pacers, Grizzlies, Warriors and Mavericks coming in.  But they are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and should put their best foot forward tonight.

The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days to start 2025.  They are fresh and ready to go, and now Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic are all healthy when all four has missed significant time this season.  Jones is back in the lineup as well after sitting out last game.

The 76ers do have George and Maxey back, but Embiid is questionable every night and remains questionable tonight.  Both Oubre (12.8 PPG) and Lowry are questionable, and McCain (15.3 PPG) and Martin (6.4 PPG) are both out.  The 76ers are a top-heavy team and missing some key role players.

The Suns have owned the 76ers going 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Suns Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings/Lions OVER 51

Note: I released the OVER 51 in this game prior to the Lions playing the 49ers on Monday.  I had a big play on the OVER 51.5 in that Lions/49ers game, and I anticipated a shootout that would undoubtedly make the books set this total in Vikings/Lions higher.  It played out as I expected.  It's still a 25* up to 56, and a 20* at anything higher.  But I expect this game to sail OVER the total with both teams getting 28-plus points.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.3 PPG), 2nd in total offense (410.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last four weeks going 4-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay four weeks ago, but they couldn't get three weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Two weeks ago, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

Last week, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Now they take on another elite offense in the Minnesota Vikings, who rank 9th in scoring at 26.4 points per game, 7th in total offense at 352.2 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven consecutive games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on offense with unlimited weapons for Sam Darnold in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson and Jones.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in all six, including 52 or more in five of them.  That includes a 31-29 win by the Lions in Minnesota in their first meeting and 60 combined points.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of the last four meetings as Jared Goff clearly has this blitz-heavy Minnesota scheme figured out.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Vikings/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 14-2 SU & 11-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take a 9-game winning streak into this showdown with the Detroit Lions with the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake.

The Vikings are only a couple notches down from the Lions on offense right now, but the difference in these defenses is the reason I'm on the Vikings.  The Lions have the worst defense in the entire NFL in their current state.  They have 14 defenders on IR.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

The Vikings rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.8 points per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They just held Jordan Love and Packers to 271 total yards last week.  The Lions rank 28th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They just allowed 475 total yards to the 49ers last week.

But there were even more concerning results for this Detroit defense in recent weeks.  It started with allowing 31 points to the Packers, and then 48 points and 559 total yards to the Bills in their last home games.  They gave up 382 yards and 6.0 yards per play to the Bears two weeks ago before allowing 34 points and 7.9 yards per play to the 49ers last week.  This is a bad, bad defense right now especially against the pass.

The Lions are getting too much respect for home-field advantage.  The Vikings are the better, healthier team right now and getting 3 points with them is a great value.  The difference in this game will be the Vikings getting one or two more stops than the Lions.  Sam Darnold can match Jared Goff score for score.  Bet the Vikings Sunday night.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Magic OVER 212

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 11-2 in Jazz last 13 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games.

This total of 212 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 10 consecutive games, including 120 or more in five of them.

The Orlando Magic are an under team, but that is being factored into this line too much.  They will be able to hang a big number on the Jazz, and I expect the Jazz to hang right with them.  

The Jazz and Magic have combined for at least 213 points in five consecutive meetings, including 220 or more in each of the last four.  I like OVERS in non-conference games because teams are unfamiliar with one another only facing each other twice a year, and that unfamiliarity favors offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +6.5

The Utah Jazz are as healthy as they have been all season.  That return to health has led to a 6-2 ATS run in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 136-100 upset win over the Miami Heat last night.

This line has been adjusted too much in Orlando's favor due to the Jazz playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But they had two days off prior to that win over Miami, and it was a blowout so their starters didn't even play in the 4th quarter.  Nobody played more than 30 minutes for the Jazz last night.

It's a short trip from Miami to Orlando, so I expect the Jazz to still be plenty fresh tonight to put forth another big effort.  But this play is as much a fade of the Magic as anything with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Indeed, the Magic will be without each of their top four scorers in Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  The Magic have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall clearly struggling with all these injuries.  The only wins were by 9 over Toronto and by 1 over the Nets, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chargers/Raiders OVER 40.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have a much better offense with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback.  He has had big games in each of his last three starts throwing for 340 yards against Kansas City, 257 against Jacksonville and 242 against New Orleans.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  The OVER is 6-2 in Chargers last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of those eight games, and 47 or more in five of them.  They have gone to a more pass-happy offense, and their defense has taken a step back.

I put out a lot of plays Sunday night, and of the ones I put out, this is the only one that gives me a little bit of pause as of this writing on Friday.  The Chargers could elect to rest starters if the Steelers win on Saturday.  They would be locked into the 6th seed if that were the case.  But if the Steelers lose, I absolutely love this OVER because the Chargers will play all their starters trying to get the 5th seed and a matchup with the Texans in the 1st round.  But Harbaugh may play all his starters either way.

The good news is that the Chargers actually have a quality backup QB now after trading for Taylor Heineke in the preseason.  He is a gun slinger and I think he would be able to put up some points against this Raiders defense.  I know Aidan O'Connell and this Raiders offense will have success either way, especially if they are playing against a bunch of backups.

Regardless, this OVER 40.5 was a good bet because as of this writing this total is up to 41.5 and 42 everywhere.  So from a line value perspective this is going to be a great bet if the Chargers play all their starters and Herbert is out there slinging it around in perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +1

Note: Grab the best Money Line price on the Seahawks you can find as soon as you can if you can't get +1.  They are going to go off the favorite.  I'm expecting the Rams to rest starters.

Update: This pick is the perfect example of why having a long-term package is to your benefit because you would have gotten this pick as soon as I released it.  I released this play Sunday night and ML -120 was widely available at the time of release.  The Seahawks have gone from +1 to -6.5 as of this writing.  I stated that you should find the Seahawks at the cheapest money line price you could get if you couldn't get +1.  And you could have had the Seahawks at -3 or -150 better through Tuesday.  That's when the news that the Rams would rest their starters came out and this line ballooned to -6.5.  I anticipated the Rams would rest their starters before anyone else, and I'm glad we got a great early number.  But if you're buying this later in the week and the line is -6.5 I wouldn't recommend a 25* at that number.  I still think the Seahawks win and cover, but there are better ways to play it.  Either tease the Seahawks down with either the Falcons -2.5 or better, the Vikings up to +8.5 or better, or the Dolphins at +7.5 or better.  I am not offering this play separately for purchase because of the line move as I don't think that would be fair, and only my long-term subscribers and those of you who buy the NFL 9-pack or 5-Pack have access to it.

The Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs and while that is a concern in terms of their motivation, I don't think it's that big of a concern.  The Seahawks have a first-year head coach in Mike McDonald and he wants to finish strong.  Geno Smith gets an extra $2 million if the Seahawks win 10 games, and they are going for their 10th win.  Smith also gets an additional $2 million if he throws for at least 186 yards.  His teammates will be motivated to get him those bonuses.

The Rams will be resting QB Stafford, WR Nacua, WR Kupp, RB Williams, G Dotson, RT Havenstein and LT Jackson among others.  Yes, Jimmy G is a decent backup, but I think he is overrated as a backup for what he did under Kyle Shanahan in his time at San Francisco. The 49ers won games because of their defense and in spite of Jimmy G's poor play.  He is a massive downgrade from the underrated Stafford.

The Rams have been one of the worst preseason teams in the NFL in the Sean McVay era.  With him treating this line a preseason game, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the NFL in their current form with all these backups.  They lack depth because of the trades they have made in recent seasons stripping them of that important depth.  They have some of the worst backups in the NFL.

The Seahawks are remarkably healthy right now and about as healthy as they have been all season.  They have the rest advantage to boot after beating the Bears last Thursday, getting that coveted mini-bye week late in the season.  I expect one of their best performances of the year here to get that coveted 10th win not only for Geno Smith, but for head coach Mike McDonald in his first season.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins ML -140

The Miami Dolphins are still very much alive to make the playoffs.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games to get back to .500 on the season.  They aren't about to let up now after fighting this hard just to get in this position when it looked like a lost season sitting at 2-6.

The Dolphins need to win and have the Broncos lose to the Chiefs to get in.  While the Broncos losing to the Chiefs isn't likely, we've seen several times over the years where the Chiefs rested their starters in the final week of the season but still managed to win, or at the very least keep it close.  I like that the Dolphins are playing at the same time as the Broncos so they won't know the result before they play.

QB Snoop Huntley had his best game as a Dolphin on the road in tough conditions against a very good Cleveland defense last week.  Huntley completed 22-of-26 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 52 yards and a score.  He fed Tyreek Hill early and often as Hill finished with 9 receptions for 105 yards in the win.

Head coach Mike McDaniel said on Wednesday that Huntley is in line to start as of now, but Tua Tagovailoa got in a limited practice on Wednesday and could start.  This line won't be close to PK if Tua goes.  Plus, WR Jaylen Waddle returned to practice this week, and the Dolphins didn't have Waddle last week.

While this Miami offense gets all the headlines, it's the defense that has been one of the most underrated units in the entire NFL this season.  Miami ranks 3rd in total defense allowing just 310.6 yards per game.  They are 8th in scoring at 20.6 points per game, and they have few weaknesses as they are both 9th against the run and 9th against the pass.

I think the New York Jets are just ready for this disaster of a season to be over with. They are 4-12 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games with their lone win being a comeback victory over the lowly Jaguars. Aaron Rodgers literally quit and took himself out of the game last week when they were trailing Buffalo 40-0.  While Rodgers has been a disappointment, the problems are mostly everywhere else with the offensive line and the defense both decimated by injuries.  Rodgers has no running game and no time, and he's always trying to pay catch up with this leaky defense.

The Jets are allowing 28.7 points per game in their last seven games.  They have lost their way since losing head coach Robert Saleh and MLB CJ Mosely.  Now they could be without their next two best defenders in CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams this week.  Three starters are questionable along the offensive line, and they just lost their starting LT two weeks ago.

The Dolphins didn't have a single player make the Pro Bowl which adds to their motivation.  The Jets are 0-20 SU & 1-19 ATS in their last 20 games after facing the Bills the previous week.  I'll gladly back the better, healthier team with something to play for Sunday against the banged up, flatlining Jets who are just ready for this season to be over with.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +3.5

I grabbed the New York Giants +3.5 on Sunday night.  I anticipated the Philadelphia Eagles would rest their starters because they were locked into the No. 2 seed.  They have indeed decided to rest their starters and this line is down to +2.5 as of this writing.  The Giants should be favored, so it's still worth a bet as long as they are underdogs.

The Giants are coming off their best offensive performance of the season.  They upset the Colts 45-33 on the road in what was a must-win game for Indianapolis.  Drew Lock accounted for five touchdowns with four passing and one rushing in the win.  Brian Daboll improved to 8-2 ATS in the final three weeks of the season as a head coach.  Daboll is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the final two weeks of the season.

He will have these Giants ready to go again Sunday as he is coaching for his job.  The Eagles have already announced Barkley, Hurts, Brown and Smith will sit, and obviously several other starters will be sitting as well.  Nick Siriani is playing this smart knowing that he has no incentive to win this game, and to be honest the Eagles as a franchise would be better off letting the Giants win to assure the Giants don't get a top pick and thus strike out yet again on a franchise quarterback.

Philadelphia backup QB Kenny Pickett got hurt in their last game and will likely miss this game.  That means the Eagles would be down to third-string QB Tanner McKee, who took his first NFL snaps every last week.  It's hard to see any QB for the Eagles having much success without their top three weapons in Barkley, Brown and Smith.  This is going to be an ugly offensive performance for the Eagles, and their defense is loaded at the top but the depth will be tested in a big way here.

The Giants are only missing three starters this week in LB McFadden and two offensive linemen, but their O-Line has been banged up all season.  Lock has all of his top weapons available including Nabers, Tracy, Robinson and Slayton and they are forming a nice chemistry to finish the season.  The defense is in good shape with LB Thibodeaux returning, a fully healthy secondary and Burns expected to go.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Chicago Bears +9.5

I grabbed the Bears +9.5 Sunday night anticipating the Packers would be resting starters.  This line is +10 as of this writing because Matt LaFleur is expected to play starters.  The real question is how long will they play, and I have a hard time believing they will play all four quarters.  If they don't, the Bears should not be 10-point underdogs and this will be a great bet.

Josh Jacobs has already hinted he won't be taking a full workload, and I think that will be the case for the rest of the starters.  Best case if you bet the Packers is they play all starters for an entire half.  

Green Bay is locked into the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.  Of course, they would rather have the 6th seed because then they would avoid the Eagles in the first round.  But they don't have any control over it because the Commanders have the tiebreaker over the Packers.  If the Commanders beat the Cowboys, they are going to be the 6th seed.  

Head coach Dan Quinn has already said they are going to fight like hell to win that game and get the 6th seed.  I don't expect the Cowboys to offer much resistance with how banged up their are right now and coming off a 41-7 loss to the Eagles.  If the Packers see the Commanders crushing the Cowboys at halftime, they are going to pull starters.

The Packers used a lot of energy in trying to come back from a 17-point deficit to beat the Vikings last week.  They got close losing 27-25, but they managed just 271 total yards in what was a misleading final.  Jordan Love looked disinterested for much of the game because it was nearly a meaningless game for the Packers.  This game is nearly meaningless as well, and I don't expect them to put their best foot forward as a result.

I love the spot for the Bears.  They get a mini-bye week after losing by 3 to the Seahawks on Thursday.  They will be the much fresher team, and they will be the much more motivated team.  They have lost 11 consecutive games to the Packers.  They are tired of hearing about that losing streak for the last six years, and now they get a chance to end it with the Packers not fully motivated. At the very least there's a ton of value in backing Chicago as double-digit dogs this week given the favorable circumstances.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 44

The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 44 or more combined points in all four games.  They combined for 49 points with the Patriots, 68 with the Titans and 78 with the Giants.

That 45-33 loss to the Giants last week was alarming. The Colts gave up 5 total touchdowns to Drew Lock of the Giants.  They also allowed 422 total yards to the Patriots during this stretch, and 30 points to the Titans and 31 points to the Broncos.  This is a very bad defense, and I imagine Gus Bradley will not longer get a defensive coordinator job in the NFL after this season.

But the Colts have a very good offense no matter who is under center.  In their last two games they put up 38 points and 454 total yards on the Titans and 33 points and 446 total yards on the Giants.  Anthony Richardson got back spasms prior to the Giants game and was a late scratch, and he is questionable to play this week.  The good news is I like the Colts no matter who is under center.

Joe Flacco got the Colts in a shootout with the Jaguars in a 37-34 loss for 71 combined points in their first meeting this season in Jacksonville.  These teams combined for 944 total yards in that game.  Flacco threw for 359 and 3 touchdowns.  Whoever is under center will be able to score at will against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 25.6 points per game, 31st in total defense at 387.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.

Mac Jones is a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence, but he is playing the best football of his career in Jacksonville and he is having a lot of fun, and his guys are playing hard for him.  Jones is completing 66% of his passes this season.  He has completed at least 63% of his passes in five consecutive games while throwing for at least 220 yards in four of those five.  He is in line for likely his best game of the season against this soft Indianapolis zone defense.  The Colts rank 27th in scoring defense at 25.2 points per game and 29th in total defense at 363.8 yards per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 52 or more combined points in all four and an average of 60.3 combined points per game.  This total of 44 is simply too short for a game involving two of the worst defenses in the NFL in perfect scoring conditions in the dome in Indianapolis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season.  They have the worst defense in the NFL, and their offense has been greatly improved since Bryce Young got a 2nd chance.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game and dead last in total defense allowing 396.2 yards per game.  But their defense is even worse now due to all the injuries.  They just allowed 48 points and 551 total yards to the Bucs last week.

The Panthers are 11 players on defense listed out.  They just lost CB Jaycee Horn, NB Smith-Wade and LB Josey Jewell to add them to the list.  LB Johnson is out and LB Clowney is questionable, as is DE Robinson.  What a mash unit this defense is.

The Falcons look revived on offense under Michael Penix Jr.  He has performed as well as can be expected in leading the Falcons to 34 points in his first start against the Giants, and 24 points last week against the Commanders.  He did everything in his power to win them that game against Washington last week, but unfortunately the Falcons lost the coin flip in OT so he never got the ball to go win it.  Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson are in line for huge games against this Carolina defense as the Falcons can basically name their number.

But what cost the Falcons last week was their defense being on the field for nearly the entire 2nd half.  They wore down and couldn't get a stop in OT.  Because they were on the field for so long, I think the Falcons are going to give up a lot of points this week. They are going to wear down again in the 2H and Bryce Young and company are going to be able to put up some points late.  Young has recently put up 36 points on Arizona and 27 on Kansas City during this resurgence.

Atlanta beat Carolina 38-20 for 58 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Kirk Cousins had a big game in leading the Falcons to 38 points and 423 yards, and they rushed for nearly 200 yards as a team. The Panthers had 335 yards and plenty of success as well with Andy Dalton at QB.  He didn't have the services of Adam Thielen, who has formed a great chemistry with Young.  Thielen has 32 receptions for 405 yards and 4 TD in his last five games with Young.

This game will be played in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  I think with it being the final game of the season likely for both teams they will want to put up as big of numbers offensively as possible.  The offenses have the advantage over the defenses in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Heat OVER 223.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.

This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

I think the Heat without Jimmy Butler are actually more of an OVER team.  He is a great defender, and the ball sticks in his hands on offense.  So they play more freely and more team basketball without Butler on the court, while also being much worse off defensively.  The OVER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 227 or more combined points in three of those four games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 226 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  I like OVERS in these non-conference games between teams that aren't familiar with one another because the unfamiliarity tends to favor offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER 239

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This is one of those rare home-and-home situations in the NBA.  The Spurs just beat the Nuggets 113-110 in Denver last night for 223 combined points, and now they square off again tonight in San Antonio.

I was actually on the OVER 235.5 last night in that game and lost.  Now they have set the total at 239 for the rematch, and it should not be set higher than it was last night given the situation of the familiarity.  Victor Wembenyama defends Jokic as well as anyone in the NBA, so points for the Nuggets are very hard to come by.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in three of those four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +5.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are rested after having the last two days off, and they are pissed off coming off one of their worst losses of the season to the Wizards.

The Bulls have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-107 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Knicks, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Amazingly, all five starters for the Knicks played at least 40 minutes last night.  Don't be surprised if one or more of those starters rest tonight.  They were already without key backup PG Miles McBride due to a hamstring injury, and they really miss him backing up Brunson.

The Bulls upset the Knicks 124-123 as 8.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 13th.  Now they are catching 5.5 points in the rematch at home in a much more favorable rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Denver/South Dakota OVER 163

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes are 10-2-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 9th in adjusted tempo and 26th in average length of offensive possession at 15.5 seconds.  They are one of the worst defensive teams in the country ranking 353rd in adjusted defensive out of 364 teams.

Now they face another terrible defensive team in Denver, which ranks 337th in adjusted defense.  The Pioneers also let their opponents get shots up quickly ranking 14th in average length of possession defensively at 16.1 seconds.  South Dakota will control the tempo playing at home today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-13-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 7th in pace, 9th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating.

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which they are right now.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic have all missed significant time this season, but all are healthy with the exception of Beal, who is questionable after playing last game so it's likely he plays again tonight.  Especially since the Suns have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are up against a Phoenix team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating and 10th in offensive rating.  The Pacers will control the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech/Utah OVER 154

Utah is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Utes rank 30th in adjusted tempo and 35th in average length of offensive possession.  They like to play fast and they have scored at least 78 points in 11 of their 12 games this season.

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Red Raiders are elite on offense rank 14th in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 13th in 3-point percentage.  They are loaded with 3-point shooters all over the floor.  They have scored at least 76 points in 11 of their 12 games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -17

The Baltimore Ravens will be max motivated on Saturday to clinch the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC.  They also want revenge on the Cleveland Browns after losing to Jameis Winston on the road in their first meeting.  But they won't have to face Winston this time around.

The Ravens are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall crushing the Giants by 21 on the road, the Steelers by 17 at home and the Texans by 29 on the road.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season, and their defense is playing as well as it has all year.

Lamar Jackson is on the cusp of winning another MVP.  I think he wants to put up big numbers in this game to make his case.  Jackson leads the league's top-ranked offense rank 1st in total offense at 424.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  They are also scoring 30.2 points per game this season.

The Browns will go with a mix of Dorian-Thompson Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback.  DTR has scored a total of 6 points in the last 20-plus drives for the Browns.  I would prefer he gets the bulk of the reps, but Zappe hasn't had any success in the NFL either.

Whoever is under center won't have the services of their top three RB.  Chubb is out with a season-ending injury, and both Ford and Strong went out with injuries last week and have been placed on injured reserve.  Star TE David Njoku is also out, as is WR Cedric Tillman.  The Browns have scored a total of 16 points in their last three games, or an average of 5.3 points per game.

While the Browns defense is pretty good when fully healthy, that is no longer the case.  They lost three more starters to injury last week in DT Tomlinson, LB Hicks and CB Ward, who will all be out this week.  They already had six defenders on IR.  I don't expect their defense to hold up at all this week.  

The Browns have incentive to lose this game to get the best draft pick possible as they are in a four-way tie for the worst record in the NFL at 3-13 on the season.  Management is doing everything they can to put the players on the field that give them the best chance to lose.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -2.5

Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the country this season.  The Bearcats are 10-2 with their two losses coming to Villanova and Kansas State, but thoe were two true road games.  They beat Xavier at home and Dayton on a neutral.

Cincinnati went 16-5 SU at home in the rugged Big 12 last season and is 7-0 SU at home this season.  The Bearcats have one of the better home-court advantages in the conference, and they will be highly motivated in their Big 12 home opener here after losing by 3 at Kansas State on the road in their Big 12 opener.

Arizona is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Wildcats are 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season.  They lost by 15 at Wisconsin, by 14 at home to Duke, by 5 on a neutral to Oklahoma, by 7 on a neutral to WVU and by 3 in a semi-home game against UCLA.  Their seven wins have all come against suspect competition.  Their best win was a 9-point home win over TCU as a 14-point favorite.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -1

It will be a sellout for the Nebraska Cornhuskers (11-2) today in what is one of the toughest environments to play in the country.  This will be just the second true road game this season for UCLA, and I don't expect it to go well for the Bruins.

This is such a tough spot for UCLA.  After losing by 2 to North Carolina at Madison Square Garden, the Bruins bounced back with a 65-62 upset win over Gonzaga on a neutral.  This is their 3rd huge game in a row, and I don't expect them to be up to task.

After going 18-1 SU at home last season, the Huskers are 7-0 SU at home this season for a combined 25-1 SU record at home the last two seasons.  So getting them as only 1-point favorites is tremendous value today.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas +12

The Tennessee Vols are 13-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that #1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.  In fact, I'm confident if you bet against the #1 team in every game this season you will make a big profit.

The Volunteers are 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall.  They only beat Middle Tennessee by 18 as 26.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State by 15 a 29.5-point home favorites, not even coming close to covering in either game.  Now they are laying 12 points to one of the best teams they have faced all season in Arkansas.

It was going to take some time for John Calipari's squad to gel, but the Razorbacks are on a roll now improving to 11-2 on the season with six consecutive victories.  Their only two losses this season came by 5 to Baylor on a neutral and by 13 to Illinois on a neutral.  They beat Miami on the road and Michigan on a neutral, so they have been tested.  

I think they'll be up to the test today ranking 23rd in adjusted defense, so their effort on that game will keep them competitive for 40 minutes.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss is 11-2 this season with its only losses coming on a neutral to Purdue by 2 and at Memphis.  The Rebels should be bigger home favorites over the Georgia Bulldogs today.

Georgia is getting a lot of respect for its 12-1 record this season.  But the Bulldogs have played the 331st-ranked schedule in the country with one of the easiest slates in the nation.  

They have only played one true road game and that was an 8-point win at lowly Georgia Tech, which wasn't that much of a road game.  Their true colors showed in an 11-point loss to Marquette on a neutral, the best opponent they have faced outside Ole Miss.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +8.5

This is a massive letdown spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are coming off a 62-61 win at Kansas as 13.5-point underdogs in their Big 12 opener.  It was the first time since 1991 the Jayhawks opened 0-1 in conference play.

The Mountaineers won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, which hung tough with Houston at home in its Big 12 opener.  I think the Cowboys are very live underdogs today given the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.

The Mountaineers will be without Tucker DeVries (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 BPG) and could be without Amani Hansberry (10.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG), who is questionable.  They aren't good enough without these two to be laying this big of a number.  

The Cowboys are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* Buffalo/Liberty Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo ML -127

Sometimes bowl games are all about motivation.  And I have no doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in the Bahamas Bowl against Liberty.  They will also be the better team considering all the players that Liberty is missing.

Expectations were very low for Buffalo this season.  First-year head coach Pete Lembo took over a 3-9 team and turned the Bulls into a contender in the MAC despite being picked by most to finish near the bottom of the conference.  The Bulls went 8-4 this season with all four losses coming to bowl teams in Ohio, WMU, UConn and Missouri.  They also beat fellow bowl teams NIU and Toledo, who both won their bowl games.  Those six bowl teams went a combined 5-1 in bowl games.

Liberty failed to even make the championship game of the worst conference in the country in C-USA.  They were odds-on favorites to win the conference coming in.  They lost to Sam Houston State in their regular season finale, needed OT to beat a terrible UMass (2-10) team, and had several other questionable efforts throughout the season including an outright loss to Kennesaw State (2-10).  They also needed OT to beat awful FIU (4-8).

The biggest loss for the Flames is QB Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado to try and take the place of Shedeur Sanders.  Three starters along the offensive line hit the transfer portal, as did starting DL Dixon and DL Nairne.  Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will start at QB.  All six players in the portal won't play in the bowl game and head coach Jamey Chadwell said he expects more opt-outs.  Starting S Quinton Reese and starting TE Bentley Hanshaw didn't play in the finale due to injuries.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the exact same depth chart for the bowl game as it did in the regular season finale.  The Bulls went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games outscoring those opponents by a combined 67 points. Their offense is humming scoring 37 or more points in five of their last six games.  They want to be here and the Flames don't.  I also believe the Bulls are the better team in their current state.  Bet Buffalo on the Money Line in the Bahamas Bowl Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 235.5

Since losing their best defender in Aaron Gordon to injury, the Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team.  They have inserted Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in place of Gordon, and Westbrook is a dead nuts OVER play adding a lot on offense but taking away a lot on defense.

The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last nine games overall with 250 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  These games have been flying OVER the total.  They combined for 259 with Atlanta, 253 with Utah, 255 with Detroit, 284 with Cleveland, 261 with New Orleans, 250 with Portland and 259 with Sacramento.

The San Antonio Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing more high scoring games as a result.  The OVER is 8-4 in Spurs last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 242 or or combined points in three of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +2.5

This is a tough spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 118-115 win in Minnesota last night.  Four of five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.

They were without both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis and there's a good chance both of them sit tonight.  They could elect to rest one of either Tatum, Horford, Holiday or White who were the five starters to play at least 35 minutes last night.

The Houston Rockets are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  The Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA going 22-11 SU & 20-13 ATS this season.  They will be licking their chops at the opportunity to take down the defending champs at home tonight.

The Celtics have been grossly overvalued this season after winning the title last year.  They are just 12-20-1 ATS in all games.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 232

The Washington Wizards finally have both Poole and Kuzma on the court at the same time, which has been rare this season.  They are dead nuts OVER team with these two on the court because they are both scorers on offense and terrible defenders on defense.

The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, which makes them a dead nuts OVER team.  They take on a New Orleans Pelicans team that ranks 29th in defensive rating, so these are two of the four worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall with 227 or more combined points in all five games.  They combined for 256 with Memphis, 239 with Houston and 261 with Denver.  They are healthier than they have been in a long time too and Murray, Murphy III and McCollum are all good offensive players but not good defenders.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Wizards and Pelicans.  The last two have been crazy high scoring combining for 259 points in New Orleans and 264 points in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1

No conference has a better home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  I think we are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in a battle between two pretty evenly-matched teams.

Ohio State is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming by a single point.  The Buckeyes are playing very well here of late including a 85-65 win over Kentucky on a neutral as 8.5-point dogs two games ago.  They won their lone conference home game 80-66 as 5-point favorites over Rutgers.

Michigan State will be playing just its 2nd true road game this season.  The first was a win against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Minnesota.  This is going to be the toughest test of the season for the Spartans tonight.  Their two losses came to Memphis and Kansas on a neutral.  

The Buckeyes are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Spartans.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

20* Minnesota/Virginia Tech Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on Minnesota -7

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games as the head coach at Minnesota.  Few coaches take bowl games more seriously than Fleck does.  And I expect him to have his guys ready to go for the Mayo Bowl against Virginia Tech Friday.

The Gophers have been an undervalued commodity all season going 7-5 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in all games this season.  They aren't the most flashy team, but they do have the best passing game they've had in a long time, and they are still great on defense and in the running game which is the case every year under Fleck.

QB Max Brosmer was a great addition in the transfer portal.  He is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Gophers have scored at least 24 points in six of their last eight games and finished strong, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games.  That includes a 1-point loss to Penn State and a 7-point loss at Rutgers.  They beat Wisconsin by 17 on the road, Illinois by 8 on the road, Maryland by 25 at home, UCLA by 4 on the road and USC by 7 at home.

Minnesota has yet another elite defense ranking 12th in the country allowing 17.5 points per game and 7th in total defense at 290.9 yards per game.  The Gophers will likely have a few players sit including RT Phillip Daniels and OT Aireontae Ersery, but there losses aren't nearly as big as what Virginia Tech is dealing with.

Indeed, the Hokies will be missing a ton of starters.  They will be without starting LT Xavier Chaplin, starting C Braelin Moore, starting CB Mansoor Delane, starting S Mose Phillips, LB Sam Brumfield, LB Keli Lawson and RB Malachi Thomas.  DE Powell-Ryland, DT Peebles, WR Felton, WR Lane and CB Strong have all opted out.

That doesn't even include the fact that the Hokies will be missing their two best players on offense in QB Drones and RB Tuten.  Tuten, RG Moore, DT Pene and SS Jenkins all weren't spotted at a recent practice, so the Hokies could be down as many as 14 starters.  It will either be backup QB Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.  What a mess.  Bet Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl Friday.

15* North Texas/Texas State First Responder Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -13.5

This is much more of a fade of North Texas than a play on Texas State.  The players the Mean Green will be missing in this game will be too much to overcome, and I fully expect them to get blown out by the Bobcats in the First Responder Bowl.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris has left for Virginia.  He is completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,774 yards with a 31-to-12 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 242 yards and four TD.  That leaves true freshman Drew Mestemaker to start in his place, and those are some massive shoes to fill considering Mestermaker has only attempted five passes all season.

But that's not where it ends.  Leading WR DT Sheffield (66 receptions, 822 yards, 11 TD) has committed to Rutgers.  Starting T Oscar Hammond (19, 238 1 TD) has committed to ORegon State.  Starting C Tyler Mercer and starting LG Leke Asenuga are also both out.  Starting OT Larry Moore is out with an injury.  The Mean Green will be relying on a ton of freshmen on offense, and I just don't think they'll have the firepower to keep up with Texas State.

That's especially the case considering Texas State has an explosive offense and will be up against one of the worst defenses they've seen all season in the Mean Green.  North Texas ranks 121st in scoring defense at 34.5 points per game, 127th in total defense at 456.6 yards per game and 108th at 6.1 yards per play.

Texas State only allows 24.2 points per game, 347.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play to compare, so they have by far the superior defense.  The Bobcats went 7-5 SU this season but were much better than that record would indicate.  Four of their five losses came by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  That includes a 3-point loss to Arizona State, which made the four-team playoff.

The Bobcats will only for sure be without three starters to the transfer portal and possibly five or six.  The biggest of note is RB Ismail Mahdi (991 yards, 4 TD, 5.4/carry).  But backup RB's Pare (404 yards, 6 TD, 5.5/carry) and Burgess (344 yards, 2 TD, 6.4/carry) are ready to fill his shoes.  

There are rumors QB Jordan McCloud may not play significant snaps since I released this play, but backup RJ Martinez is an intriguing transfer from Baylor.  He has completed 18-of-24 passes this season.  Whoever is under center will have three 600-yard receivers at his disposal as none of the receivers have opted out.

North Texas went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its final six games of the season.  The Mean Green needed a 24-17 win at lowly Temple (3-9) in their finale just to make a bowl game.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without Morris, Sheffield and several others.  Bet Texas State in the First Responder Bowl Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +17.5

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Gaels are just 3-10 ATS in lined games this season.  Recent results for them have been very concerning.

In their last three games they only beat Merrimack by 5 as 20.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Utah State by 7 as 5.5-point home favorites and only beat Pacific by 10 as 20.5-point home favorites.  Now they are laying 17.5 points to an underrated Pepperdine team.

The Waves are grossly undervalued going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 7 to Gonzaga as 20.5-point home dogs last time out to show their potential.  They lost by 11 at Santa Clara as 15-point dogs, crushed UC Davis by 39 as 1-point home favorites and also covered in wins over NAU and Grambling.  That 7-point loss to Gonzaga says all you need to know about their potential.  Bet Pepperdine Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/UMKC OVER 157

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1-1 OVER in all lined games this season.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 80.0 points per game.  They rank 6th in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.

Kansas City has let opponents get up quick shots all season as they rank 40th in average length of possession on defense.  They are also a pretty poor defensive team ranking 207th in adjusted defense.  They shoot a ton of 3-pointers ranking 43rd in 3PA/FGA, which will help the OVER as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat OVER 223.5

This total is way too low for a game involving the Pacers and Heat.  Each of the last six meetings between the Pacers and Heat have seen 227 or more combined points, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223.5-point total.

Both the Pacers and Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and clicking offensively.  The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last four games overall with 232 or more combined points in all four games.  The Heat have gone for 227 and 230 combined points in two of their last three games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Knicks OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

This total of 230.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

The New York Knicks have had a huge switch this season from a defensive team to an offensive team simply with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Knicks actually rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  They have really slipped defensively ranking 14th in that category.

The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons ML -120

The Orlando Magic are without Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  Jalen Suggs is banged up and Anthony Black (8.5 PPG) is questionable.  That's so much production they are without right now, and I don't think they should be listed close to a PK on the road at Detroit tonight.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and playing as well as they have all season as a result.  The Pistons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, winning 133-125 as 6-point dogs at Phoenix, 117-114 as 6-point dogs at the Lakers and 114-113 as 5-point dogs at Sacramento.  Their lone loss came by 13 on the road at Denver.

The Pistons have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They will also be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  It will be the 4th game in 7 days for the Magic, so the Pistons have a big rest advantage as well.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Wednesday.