15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +3

The Denver Nuggets have taken a big step back this season with all they lost in the offseason, plus injuries.  The Nuggets are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with three of their wins coming in OT against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Raptors (twice) and Nets.  Another win came against the lowly Jazz.

Now the Nuggets are without two starters in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and they already were lacking a bench.  They managed to upset the Thunder 124-122 as 7-point home dogs without these two on Wednesday.  But that makes this a big letdown spot for them after handing the Thunder their first loss of the season.

Now they go from 7-point home dogs to 3-point home favorites over the Heat, and that's too big of an adjustment.  The Nuggets won't shoot nearly as well as they did against the Thunder without Murray and Gordon for a second consecutive game.

They face a Miami Heat team that will be highly motivated for a victory off two straight losses by a combined 4 points to the Suns and Kings, two of the better teams in the West.  They lost at the buzzer to the Kings and couldn't stop Kevin Durant late.  There's a good chance they get Jaime Jaquez back from an illness tonight and will be at full strength with the exception of Kevin Love.  They should not be underdogs to the Nuggets missing two of their three best players tonight.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* Iowa/UCLA FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye two weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed last week and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.

A big reason I'm backing the Bruins again this week is because they match up well with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Bruins are one of the best defenses in the country at stopping the run, which is even more impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  UCLA ranks 12th in the country allowing 100.4 rushing yards per game and 18th at 3.3 yards per carry.

Iowa made the switch to dual-threat Brendan Sullivan at quarterback finally two games ago in the 2H of their 40-14 win over Northwestern.  They stuck with him for their 42-10 home win over Wisconsin last week.  Those two results have the Hawkeyes overvalued now, and with a couple games of film on him, I expect the Bruins to come up with the proper game plan to slow the Hawkeyes down this week.

Iowa hasn't seen many QB's as good as Ethan Garbers of UCLA, and the weakness of this Iowa defense is their pass defense.  Iowa State, Michigan State and Ohio State all had success throwing the football on them.  Garbers is completing 65% of his passes for 1,703 yards with 10 touchdowns this season despite the brutal schedule.  He has a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games, wins over Rutgers and Nebraska.

Iowa hasn't had any success under Kirk Ferentz on the West Coast, and this is a tough travel spot for them on a short week.  Bet UCLA Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

I love the spot for the Washington Wizards tonight.  They are the freshest team in the NBA having only played six games thus far while the Memphis Grizzlies have already played nine games.  The Wizards come in on three days' rest having the last three days off to rest and prepare for Memphis.

Memphis has no business being a 7-point favorite in this game when you look at their injury report.  The Grizzlies are without three starters in JA Morant, Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane.  They are also without two key role players in Vince Williams and GG Jackson, and John Konchar is questionable.

The Grizzlies are a tired, short-handed team playing their 6th game in 10 days.  They are coming off a huge win over the Lakers, but Morant got hurt late in that game and will be out for this one.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as well.  Keep in mind the Grizzlies have already lost to the Nets twice this season, and they'll let the Wizards hang around for four quarters in this one.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/Alabama OVER 169.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the kings of pace and space.  They face another team in Arkansas State tonight that are trying to follow their blueprint with pace and space.  There's going to be a ton of possessions in this game as a result tonight.

Alabama is the No. 2ranked team in the country this season largely because they brought back senior PG Mark Spears (21.5 PPG last year).  They also brought back two more starters in Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (44% 3-pointers in conference) and Grant Nelson (11.9 PPG, 69% 2-pointers).  They added one of the best recruiting classes in the country and are loaded again.  They scored 110 points on UNC-Asheville in their opener.

Bryan Hodgson needed only one seasons to build the best offense in program history as the Red Wolves rannked 61st in offensive efficiency last season at KenPom.  They bring back four starters from that team, and they add in F Kobe Julien from conference rival Louisiana.  Taryn Dodd (12.8 PPG and Derrian Ford (10.4 PPG) form the best backcourt duo in the conference combining for 113 made 3-pointers last season.  They now have the depth to play at an even faster pace this season.

The Red Wolves won a 80-75 shootout with Akron in their opener.  They only shot six free throws and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range as well.  They are due some positive shooting regression in this one, and they will be forced to try and keep pace with the Crimson Tide.  This is going to be a fun game tonight filled with offense.  I'm guessing Alabama tops 100 points again to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 169.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Santa Clara -5

Arizona State lost 103-47 to Duke in the exhibition season.  That was a sign of things to come for the Sun Devils, who are in rough shape this season.  That was also evident in their lackluster 55-48 home win over Idaho State as 18-point favorites.  That's an Idaho State team that lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer only averaged 7.7 points per game.

Arizona State went 14-18 last season, and Bobby Hurley is squarely on the hot season.  The Sun Devils lost four starters from that team including three double-digit scorers.  Clearly there's not much to like about the replacements with those results against Duke and Idaho State.

Herb Sendek is one of the more underrated coaches in the country.  He led the Broncos to a 20-13 season last year, reaching 20 wins four times in the past five years.  Three starters return in G Adama Alpha-Bal (14.4 PPG), F Johnny O'Neil (11.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and F Christoph Tilly (9.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  Several key reserves return including Knapper (6.1 PPG), Bryan (8.2 PPG), Tongue (4.7 PPG) and Ensminger (4.1 PPG).  Few teams start the season with as much chemistry as the Broncos.

Santa Clara opened with a 85-78 win as 2-point favorites over St. Louis.  That's a St. Louis team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season after nabbing Indiana State Josh Schertz and two of his best players from that team in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope.  They also brought back Gibson Jimmerson (15.8 PPG), who will be the school's all-time leading scorer in a few games.  It was an impressive result, and now the Broncos take a big step down in class here against the awful ASU.  Bet Santa Clara Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA thus far.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS not once really getting blown out.  They have upset wins over the Grizzlies (twice), the Bucks and they took the Nuggets to OT.

I love the spot for the Nets tonight as they come in on three days' rest after having the last three days off.  And while the Nets are pretty healthy right now, they take on a Boston Celtics team that is without two starters in Jalen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis.

The Celtics will be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well so they are the much more tired team.  They showed signs of wearing down last time out losing 118-112 at home to the Warriors as 7-point favorites.  They allowed the Warriors to score on every possession over the final four minutes.  They'll let the Nets hang around tonight.  Bet the Nets Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Pistons OVER 227.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team again this season.  They rank 3rd in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  Teams that play fast and play no defense always trend to the OVER, and this is a pretty low total for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The OVER is 8-1 in all Atlanta games this season with 232 or more combined points in eight of their nine games.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Detroit Pistons, who will have to go more small ball tonight without the services of C Jalen Duren, who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings with 231 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -28.5

The No. 20 Cincinnati Bearcats are in the Top 25 this season to start the year and for good reason.  They brought back four starters from a team that finished 22-15 in the rugged Big 12 in their first season in the best college basketball conference in the country.

Three of their four returning starters averaged double-figures last season, plus they get back 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo (6.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Bearcats are off to an impressive start crushing Arkansas-Pine Bluff 109-54 as 37-point favorites.

Morehead State went 26-9 last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  But the Eagles lost their head coach in Preston Spradlin and lost four starters from that team.  First-year head coach Jonathan Mattox, a former team manager, has his hands full to say the least.

The Eagles lost five players that combined for 5,191 of the team's 7,000 minutes last season.  This is a complete rebuild, and that was obvious when they lost their opener 93-45 at Louisville as 22-point dogs.  It's going to take the books some time to catch up on just how bad this team really is.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 52

The Baltimore Ravens are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all games this season with 45 or more combined points in all nine games, including 51 or more combined points in five consecutive games.

The Ravens have one of the best offenses in NFL history.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 445.9 yards per game and 1st at 7.3 yards per play.  To average 6.5 yards per play is elite in the NFL, and they are averaging way more than that despite being a run-heavy team averaging 5.9 per carry on 33 attempts per game.

Teams can continue to come back on the Ravens because the weakness of their team is their secondary.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL against the pass, allowing 280.9 passing yards per game.  They are also 28th allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

Now they face a pass-heavy Cincinnati Bengals offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game.  Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 TD in leading the Bengals to a 41-24 win over the Raiders last week that saw 65 combined points.

Baltimore won 41-38 (OT) for 79 combined points in an absolute shootout against the Bengals in their first meeting this season.  The Ravens racked up 520 total yards on this soft Cincinnati defense and will have another big game in the rematch.  Burrow threw for 392 yards and 5 TD to go toe-for-toe with Lamar Jackson and company in that first meeting.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 51 or more combined points in all three.  It will be more of the same here.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +4

The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are just 3-5 SU but 5-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road.

This is now a great spot for the Blazers as they come in on two days' rest, while the Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They showed signs of wearing down last night in their 127-100 road loss to Houston.

While the Blazers are almost fully healthy, the Spurs remain without PG Tre Jones and they just lost PF Jeremy Sochan (15.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG) to a broken thumb.  SG Devin Vassell (19.5 PPG last year) has yet to make his season debut, so being short-handed makes this tough rest situation even worse.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* FAU/ECU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play at.  The Pirates rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.

The OVER is 3-0 in ECU's last three games overall with a 55-24 loss to Charlotte for 79 combined points, a 45-28 loss to Army for 73 combined points and a 58-34 win over Temple for 90 combined points.  The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference, and he just threw for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple last time out.

The FAU Owls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  They lost 41-37 to North Texas for 78 combined points, lost 38-24 to UTSA for 62 combined points and lost 44-21 to USF for 65 combined points.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, and both offenses should have their way in this one.  FAU is allowing 41 points per game and 498 yards per game in its last three games.  East Carolina is allowing 44.7 points per game and 454.7 yards per game in its last three games.

Florida Atlantic also prefers to play fast ranking 42nd in the country in tempo.  So this game will see a ton of possessions with ECU ranking 4th in tempo leading the way and controlling the pace playing at home.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, no wind and only 14% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Florida -24

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

The Gators managed to cover as 11.5-point favorites in a 98-83 win over South Florida despite shooting just 5-of-25 (20%) from 3-point range while the Bulls shot 13-of-27 (48%).  That was an impressive result when you consider how poorly they shot the ball from distance and how great the Bulls shot it.

Jacksonville went 16-17 last season including 5-11 in the Atlantic Sun.  They are expected to be one of the worst teams in the A-Sun again, and it's easy to see why.  They had to grind out a 78-65 win over Division II Trinity Baptist at home in their opener.

Last year in non-conference play, Jacksonville lost by 23 at Xavier, by 51 at Pitt, by 42 at UCF and by 43 at Purdue.  I expect the Gators to make easy work of the Dolphins in this one.  Bet Florida Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Montana State +18

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  The Bobcats are the class of the Big Sky again this season with all they return.  I think they will give Wisconsin a run for its money tonight.

Montana State returns three starters in Brian Goracke (13.5 PPG), Brandon Walker (13.1 PPG) and Tyler Patterson (8.2 PPG).  They also return their instant offense off the bench in Patrick McMahon (13.0 PPG), plus two other key reserves.

Wisconsin loses three starters from a team that went 22-14 last season.  The Badgers part ways with AJ Storr (16.8 PPG), Tyler Wahl (10.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Chucky Hepburn (9.2 PPG).  They only return two starters in Steven Crowl (11.2 PPG) and Max Klesmit (9.9 PPG), and there's just not a lot to like about what this team did in the offseason.

Wisconsin actually trailed Holy Cross at halftime before pulling away in the 2H for a 85-61 win as 24-point favorites.  That's a Holy Cross team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the Patriot League this season after finishing 10-23 last season and losing a pair of double-digit scorers from that team.  It's was a bad look for the Badgers, and they will be in for more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Montana State Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -6

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an absolute wagon this season.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming by a 0.5-point.  They covered the other six games by a combined 62 points.  Books just can't set their numbers high enough at this point.

Now they get to face a depleted, struggling Denver Nuggets team.  The Nuggets are 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with three of their wins coming in OT against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Raptors (twice) and Nets.  Their other win came against the lowly Jazz.

Now the Nuggets are without two starters in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and they already were lacking a bench.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without those two tonight.

The Thunder beat the Nuggets 102-87 on the road in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  And that was when both Murray and Gordon were healthy, which isn't the case anymore.  Another blowout win in OKC's favor will be the result tonight.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11

The Dallas Mavericks just can't be trusted as double-digit favorites in the Luka Doncic era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and he is the catalyst for that bringing it against good teams, and taking nights off against bad ones.

But I don't think the Bulls are a bad team, and they certainly should not be catching double-digits tonight.  The Bulls have upset road wins over the Bucks and Grizzlies this season as well as an upset home win over the Magic.  But they are coming off a home loss to the Jazz that has them undervalued, and we'll 'buy low' on them now.

The Mavericks have already been upset at home twice this season losing outright to the Pacers as 4.5-point favorites and outright to the Rockets as 6.5-point favorites.  They also only beat the Jazz by 8 as 12-point favorites.

The Bulls are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Mavericks OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan.  In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season.

The Bulls are 5-2 OVER this season with 232 or more combined points in five of their seven games this season.  They are coming off a 261-point effort against the Jazz last time out in regulation.

The Mavericks played a similar team in the Pacers last time out and combined for 261 points with them.  This game will play out similarly, and the books haven't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in awful shape right now with injuries piling up.  They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy.  They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Another key contributor in Jordan Hawkins is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last two games were very concerning as they lost 126-111 at home to a short-handed Atlanta Hawks team and 118-100 at home to a bad Portland Trail Blazers team.

I give the Pelicans little chance of keeping this game competitive as they take a big step up in class here against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavs have proven to be one of the best teams in the NBA this season, going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS with several blowout wins along the way.  They hired Kenny Atkinson in the offseason, and he is getting the most out of what is one of the most talented, experienced rosters in the NBA.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in its last five meetings with New Orleans.  That includes wins by 21 and 11 points in their last two trips to New Orleans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -6.5

This is a fade of the Orlando Magic, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games since losing their best player in Paulo Banchero.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 32 points in the four games since he went down.  They are also without starting C Wendell Carter Jr right now.

This is a tired, short-handed Magic team playing their 8th game in 14 days.  Now they must travel to Indiana to face a Pacers team that will push the pace and test those tired legs.

It's also a Pacers team that will be out for revenge from a 119-115 road loss at Orlando on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  Banchero scored a career-high 50 points in that game! Carter had 11 points and 10 rebounds as well.  They will be sorely missed, and I give the Magic little to no chance of keeping this game competitive without them.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Notre Dame -27

Notre Dame head coach Micah Shrewsberry was able to keep his top four scorers and five of his top six scorers from last season in an age where it's hard to keep players around.  So I like the chemistry the Fighting Irish will have from the jump this season.

They were one of the youngest teams in the country last season, but now they are going to be one of the most experienced.  They hang their hats on defense and defense as well as almost anyone in the country, and Markus Burton (17.5 PPG last year) is one of the best players in the country already entering his sophomore season.

Stonehill is expected to be one of the worst teams in the Northeast Conference this season.  The Skyhawks lose their top three scorers and four of five starters from last season's team that went just 4-27.  They can't be any worse, but they won't be much better, either.  I don't think they are capable of staying within 30 points of the Fighting Irish in their opener.  Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Western Michigan OVER 51.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host Northern Illinois.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 28th in the country in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game and 24th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 33.8 points per game, 119th at 429.6 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play.

Northern Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 397.1 yards per game this season.  The Huskies are in line for their best offensive output of the season tonight against this suspect WMU defense.  

I expect the Broncos to keep pace behind arguably the best QB in the MAC in Hayden Wolff, who completes 69% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  RB Nixon (7.2 YPC, 10 TD) is also tough to tame.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5

Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year.  I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been.  He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year.

Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12.  "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous."

Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year).  F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year.  But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico.  They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low.

Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC.  Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here.  The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG).  They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions.  This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders.  Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are just 2-5 SU but 4-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road.  They have already played the Pelicans twice and outscored them 230-206 in the two meetings.  It will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight.

The Pelicans are in even worse shape now than they were in those first two meetings.  The injuries are really piling up for this team.  They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy.  They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury.

We saw what the Pelicans were without all these guys last night when they lost 126-111 as 1-point home dogs to the short-handed Atlanta Hawks, who are almost as banged up as they are currently.  The Pelicans will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, so they will have nothing left in the tank for Portland tonight.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets are at least an average NBA team when they are healthy, and that is pretty much the case right now.  They just got Brandon Miller back from injury, and as long as they have LaMelo Ball healthy they are at least an average team.

Ball is showing what he is capable of when healthy averaging 30.2 points per game, 6.3 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game.  He is shooting 47.4% from the floor and 40.5% from 3-point range on 74 attempts.  He is one of the most underrated superstars in the league because he plays in Charlotte.

I just haven't been impressed with the Timberwolves this season as they clearly miss Karl-Anthony Towns.  They are 3-3 SU but 1-5 ATS with their lone cover coming by a single point in a 117-115 win at Sacramento as 1-point favorites, which was a Kings team on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat Toronto by 11 as 14.5-point home favorites and Denver by 3 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They also lost by 10 at San Antonio as 4-point favorites, lost by 6 at home to the Mavericks as 4-point favorites and lost by 7 at the Lakers as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, the Timberwolves haven't blown anyone out yet, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Rockets OVER 217.5

This is a very low total for an NBA game this season.  It's only low because both teams are playing slow compared to the rest, but I trust both do be efficient offensively tonight.  The Rockets want to play fast and should pick up the pace moving forward.

The Knicks have gone for 128, 116 and 123 points in three of their last four games.  We've seen at least 216 combined points in all five games involving the Knicks this season, including 221 or more four times.  They are an elite offensive team this season with the additions of Towns and Bridges.

The Rockets are loaded offensively this season as well.  They are coming off a 127-121 (OT) loss to the Warriors in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Bulls OVER 228

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan.  In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season.

Now the Bulls play another team that likes to play fast and plays no defense in the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz rank 7th in pace this season and 22nd in defensive rating.  The Jazz are allowing 118.5 points per game this season.  The Bulls are allowing 116.8 points per game.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236, 243 and 244 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Opening Night BLOWOUT on Florida -10

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

But as much as I like the Florida Gators this season, this is more of a fade of South Florida than anything.  Their program is in turmoil not only because they lose their top three scorers to the transfer portal from a team that surprisingly went 25-8 last season, but they also lost their star head coach in Amir Abdur-Rahim from complications due to an illness just a couple weeks ago.  I question how much these players even want to play this season without him.

The Bulls lost Chris Younglood (15.3 PPG, 41.6% 3-pointers), Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG, 39% 3-pointers) and Kasean Pryor (13.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) who were the three biggest reasons for their success last year.  The lone returning starters are Kobe Knox (8.4 PPG) and Brendon Stroud (5.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  I think it's going to start very badly for USF this season with a blowout loss to the Gators.  Bet Florida Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat PK

The Miami Heat are loaded this season and fully healthy right now.  They get two sharp shooters in Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson back from injury tonight, and they should be at full strength for basically the first time all season.

I'm just not a big fan of this Sacramento Kings team because they don't play defense, while the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Kings are coming off a 131-128 loss as 9.5-point favorites at Toronto, which is a short-handed Raptors team.  Their only three wins this season came against the depleted Hawks, the depleted Jazz and the Blazers, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Heat are 3-2 this season with their only losses coming to the Magic in their opener back when Orlando was healthy and the Knicks, who are one of the best teams in the East.  The Heat have handled the teams they are supposed to, and they are extremely fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 5th game in 12 days.  

The Heat are 3-0 SU in their last three meetings with the Kings.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* CBB Opening Night Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Indiana State UNDER 153

Both FAU and Indiana State were decimated by the transfer portal and graduation this offseason.  They both also have new head coaches, and I expect both to really struggle offensively in the season opener as a result.

After leading FAU to 60 wins the past two seasons, head coach Dustin May is off to Michigan.  Baylor assistant John Jakus is tasked with rebuilding a team that only returns one player from last year's team in Tre Carroll (4.0 PPG).  Gone are Johnell Davis (18.2 PPG), Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG), Nick Boyd (9.3 PPG) and Brandon Weatherspoon (7.2 PPG).

Indiana State went 32-7 last season riding an offense that was one of the best in the country.  But head coach Josh Schertz parlayed that success into a new gig at St. Louis.  Gone are all five starters that led to his success in Avila (17.4 PPG), Conwell (16.6 PPG), Swope (15.9 PPG), Kent (13.5 PPG) and Larry (11.0 PPG).  Top assistant Matthew Graves inherits a roster that returns just three scholarship players who combined for a grand total of 92 points last season.

Both teams will be lost offensively in the season opener, so look for points to be very hard to come by tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Colts/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5

The Indianapolis Colts announced they were going to start Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future this week. The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with Flacco at quarterback, so I'm happy to get this OVER 46.5 under the key numbers of 47 and 48 this week.

We saw the Cleveland Browns take off on offense with Flacco under center last season turning them into a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch.  He has done the same in his few starts with the Colts this season.  Flacco just makes better use of all their weapons, and the Colts have some of the more underrated weapons in the NFL.  Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the trio of Pittman, Downs and Pierce at receiver showcase their talents at lot more with Flacco.

The Colts found themselves in a shootout with the Steelers in a 27-24 win for 51 combined points with Flacco at QB earlier this season.  They found themselves in another 37-34 shootout with the Jaguars and 71 combined points with Flacco under center the next week.  Anthony Richardson is the most inaccurate QB in the NFL, and their offense has been lacking with him under center the last couple weeks.  Him taking himself out of the game because he was tired last week was the final straw.

The Vikings have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Sam Darnold is proving what he can do when he finally has some weapons, and the Vikings have some of the best weapons in the entire NFL.  They have been rolling on offense this season with Jordan Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones making a ton of plays.  And now even more reinforcements are on the way.

The Vikings traded for LT Cam Robinson of the Jaguars this week to make up for the loss of LT Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.  Robinson is one of the best left tackles in the game.  TE TJ Hockenson is expected to make his season debut this week as well.  Hockenson was a monster last season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TD.  This offense is going to be pretty unstoppable moving forward.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Vikings started the season great defensively, but opposing offenses are starting to figure them out.  They have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games.  The Colts rank 28th in total defense allowing 380 yards per game this season.  They have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses to boot.  This Minnesota offense will be the best offense they have faced since allowing 29 points and 417 yards to a fully healthy Texans offense back in Week 1.

It looks like there will be some weather in the NFL this week as we enter the month of November.  But that's not going to affect this game considering it is being played indoors at US Bank Stadium in Minnesota.  This game has shootout written all over it Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -1

I was big on the Rams in their last game as my 25* TNF GAME OF THE YEAR as +3.5 underdogs in a 30-20 upset home win over the Minnesota Vikings.  I'm back on them again for many of the same reasons.

They got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury last week, and their offense was fully healthy for basically the first time since Week 1.  They put up 386 total yards against the Vikings and held them to just 276 with an underrated defense.  I know Nacua tweaked his knee in practice this week since I released this play, but he is still expected to give it a go.

As much as I am 'buying' on the Rams right now, I'm 'selling' on the Seahawks just as much.  Since opening 3-0 against the softest schedule in the NFL up to that point, the Seahawks have since gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Seahawks lost by 13 at Detroit as 4-point dogs, by 9 at home to the Giants as 7-point favorites, by 12 at home to the 49ers as 3.5-point dogs and then by 21 at home last week to the Bills as 3-point dogs.  So they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and not even the 12th man can make up for all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

The Seahawks have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games.  They are banged up on defense and just not that talented on this side of the ball if I'm being honest.  They are also banged up on the offensive line as Geno Smith almost has no time to throw, and now he is without his best weapon in DK Metcalf, who has been ruled out again this week.

The Seahawks managed just 233 total yards against the Bills last week in their first game without Metcalf.  Buffalo also put up 445 total yards on this Seattle defense, doing pretty much whatever they wanted to despite the fact that the Seahawks got some guys back from injury.  There's just not a lot to like about this Seattle team on either side of the football.

The Rams are surging and back in the NFC West title hunt off two consecutive victories.  They are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and now they have extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday last week.  The Seahawks are a tired, beat up team playing for a 9th consecutive week while the Rams already had their bye week.  Finally, Matthew Stafford has never lost to the Seahawks as a starting QB for the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +3.5

I took the Green Bay Packers +3.5 before it was announced that Jordan Love was likely to play.  I liked them at this number with or without Love, so it has just been a bonus that he is expected to play since.  I fully expect the Packers to win this game outright as I believe they should be favored.

Amazingly, Jared Goff has been able to play his first seven games of the season all indoors.  Well, this will be his first outdoor game of the season, and while Goff is 39-16 ATS indoors, he is just 34-34-1 ATS outdoors.  Plus, the forecast is calling for a 95% chance of rain and 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.  Goff has small hands which is why he struggles so much in the elements.

The Lions are grossly overvalued now after starting 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  They are coming off a misleading 52-14 home win over the Titans last week.  They had over 300 return yards and basically had three special teams touchdowns.  They only managed 225 total yards against the Titans and allowed 416, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

While Detroit has an elite offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Lions are really beat up on the defensive line missing three starters including Aidan Hutchinson, who has 7 sacks, 1 FF and 17 QB hurries this season.  This is the game his loss is finally felt.  They are also going to be without LB Malcolm Rodriquez.

The Packers have the offense that can take advantage of these injuries.  They rank 6th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 5th in total offense at 388.0 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 5th in rushing at 156.9 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  They have more balance this season than they have had in a long time, and keep in mind they have played 2.5 games without Love.

Favorites of 3.5 or more points off a win by 35-plus points are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 tries.  Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home, including 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -7

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  And last week's 37-17 win at Cincinnati might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.  The Eagles are allowing just 211 yards per game in their last three games.

While the Eagles remain fresh after having a bye already, the Jaguars have to be one of the most tired teams in the NFL.  They will be playing for a 9th consecutive week, which includes two games over in London.  They returned home last week and gave a valiant effort in a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers.  But it came at a much bigger cost than just one loss.

The Jaguars were decimated by injuries in that loss to the Packers.  They lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury.  Fellow starting WR's Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were both knocked out of that game and questionable to play this week.  They lost starting LG Ezra Cleveland to injury and he is out this week.  And RG Brandon Scherff was knocked out and questionable to play this week.

So the Jaguars aren't going to have much success against this surging Philadelphia defense with all these offensive injuries.  And the Eagles should get whatever they want on offense against a very suspect Jacksonville defense.  The Jaguars rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 29th in total defense at 382.1 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.

The Jaguars are 0-4 in road games this season including a 47-10 blowout loss at Buffalo.  They also lost by 19 to Chicago over in London.  I don't love laying big numbers in the NFL, but getting the Eagles as 7-point favorites here is a discount given all the factors in their favor.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Browns OVER 42

The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week.  There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well.

This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks.  They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert.  They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert.

I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker.  They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week.  He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett.  Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.

Jameis Winston finally got a chance to start last week and rejuvenated this Cleveland offense.  The Browns topped 20 points for the first time all season, putting up 29 points and 401 total yards against Baltimore.  Winston went 27-of-41 passing for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns without an interception.

Of course, a big reason for his success was the fact that the Browns finally had all five starters healthy on the offensive line, and they were fully healthy on offense for the first time all season.  Winston is a great 'OVER' QB because he stretches the field and takes chances that most quarterbacks wouldn't.  That also makes him prone to interceptions, which also benefits the OVER and will set up the Chargers with some short fields.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers this season, which is a big reason this total is as low as it is.  But their schedule of opposing offenses has been pretty laughable.  They have played the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.  Many of those offenses were limited by injuries at QB and at the skill positions at the time they played them.

I think this will be the toughest test of the season for this Chargers defense now playing a fully healthy, more potent Cleveland offense this week.  Injuries are a problem for the Chargers as well with LB Joey Bosa and LB Denzel Perryman questionable, with CB's Kristian Fullton and Deane Leonard out.  

I like the fact that both offenses are going much more pass-heavy, which stops the clock on incompletions and creates more scoring chances at the same time.  This total of 42 is simply too low given the current state of both teams.  We are getting the over at a discount, especially with the forecast calling for temps in the 60's, no rain and almost no wind in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Suns OVER 224

The Phoenix Suns are playing faster and shooting more 3's this season under Mike Budenholzer.  They are starting to gel and have some of the best talent in the entire NBA to run his system.

The Suns are coming off a 125-119 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers for 244 combined points.  The Blazers are coming off a 137-114 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 251 combined points.  This total of 224 is too low for this matchup tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3

Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season.  They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season.

Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season.  Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated.  Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did.  They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game.

Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week.  Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season.  They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago.  Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards.

TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played.  The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech.  They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU.

TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week.  This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well.  And that give these teams a recent common opponent.  Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago.  No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now.

There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU.  The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense.  Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense.

Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers.  I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11

The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS.  But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season.  That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss.

Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in.  They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army.  But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team.

The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish.  Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week.

Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years.  I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him.  There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team.

Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one.  The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return.  They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game.

Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game.  Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14.  They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  Navy will have similar success and win this one going away.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +11

The Charlotte Hornets will be the more motivated team tonight out for revenge from a 124-109 home loss to the Boston Celtics as 10.5-point underdogs last night.  Now the Hornets come back as even higher 11-point dogs in the rematch, and this number is too high given the motivational edge for Charlotte in this quick revenge spot.

Boston's starters will be more taxed than Charlotte's for this rematch.  Tatum, Brown and White all played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.  Nobody played more than 31 minutes for the Hornets.  Plus, there's a chance Brandon Miller returns from injury tonight being listed as day-to-day after sitting last night.

This will only be the 3rd game in 7 days for the Hornets, while it will be the 7th game in 12 days for the Celtics.  The spot really favors the double-digit home underdog tonight.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17

Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener.  It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season.  The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games.  I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result.

Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards.  They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs.  They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards.  They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively.

The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice.  They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game.

Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries.  He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for.  The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn.

I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season.  They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement.  But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week.  And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team.  Bet Florida Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130

The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago.  They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke.  They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward.

North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week.  They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards.  I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season.

The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game.  The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year.  I question how much they care about finishing this season strong.

I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami.  If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.

Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled.  Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%.  There's just no answer on their roster.  The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play.

UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game.  Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country.  UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game.  

FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense.  I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result.  Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover.  Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska.  After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs.  I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State.

Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games.  It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be.  The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here.

There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value.  The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of.  

The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57

Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown.  UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th.  Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one.

UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game.  The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now.  They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out.

Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game.  The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games.  They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them.

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain.  These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5

I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week.  They are exactly the type of team I like to back.  They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued.

Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.  The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country.  It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn.

But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs.  They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover.  They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points.

Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game.

While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback.

But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia.  They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks.  They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas.

Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home.  It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed.  Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards.  And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game.

Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning.  I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either.  The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them.  

I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read.  The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week.  They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.  But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week.

Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week.  Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss.  In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory.

After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern.  While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week.

The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa.  They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams.  They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin.  They have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game.  Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game.  I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season.

The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye.  That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles.

Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford.

Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now.  The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive.  They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU.  The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest.  But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC.

The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 218.5

This will be a rematch from the Western Conference semifinals last season.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams could not be more familiar with one another.

These are two of the slower-paced teams in the league again this season.  The Nuggets currently rank 25th in pace while the Timberwolves rank 24th.  And the Timberwolves took a big hit offensively when they lost Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in the offseason.

Points have been very hard to come by in this series.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 209 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  It will be more of the same tonight as these two know each other inside and out.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night.

The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year.  They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff.  I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points.

San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis.  He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left.  The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State.

That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive.  They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team.  They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards.  They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week.

There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night.  The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin.  They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State.  I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

The Clippers hired Jeff Van Gundy to run their defense in the offseason.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team playing some of the best defense in the entire NBA, plus the fact that their offense is in shambles without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Leonard is hurt and they let George go to the 76ers.

The UNDER would be 4-0 in all Clippers games this season if not for an OT game.  They have gone for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in all four games.  That one OT game was against these same Phoenix Suns in their season opener.

That game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for just 206 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

The Suns are playing much better defense this season under head coach Mike Budenholzer.  The UNDER would be 3-1 in all Phoenix games if not for OT, and they have seen 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in three of their four games.  

The Clippers rank 3rd in defensive rating while the Suns rank 6th thus far.  The Clippers rank 22nd in pace while the Suns rank 19th, so neither are playing fast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +6

The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back pretty much everyone from a team that went on an 11-game winning streak last March to make a run at the playoffs.  They added some good pieces, and I like head coach Ime Udoka.

The spot is really good for the Rockets tonight as well.  They come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  They play a Dallas Mavericks team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Jazz by 8 at home and the Timberwolves by 6 on the road.

The Mavericks have been far from impressive this season beating the Jazz by 8 and the Spurs by 11 at home, and losing by 12 to the Suns on the road.  They are getting too much respect for their upset win at Minnesota last time out.  It's clearly a bad matchup for the Timberwolves after losing in five games to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last year.

The Rockets played the Mavericks tough last year despite going 1-3 SU.  They won by 26 at home and two of their three losses came by 6 points in regulation and another in OT.  Houston is a very live underdog tonight given the big rest advantage.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* Texans/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York PK

The New York Jets (2-6) are favored over the Houston Texans (6-2) despite being four games back of them.  I agree with them being favored because these teams could easily have their records reversed when you dive into it.

The Jets aren't nearly as bad as their 2-6 record would indicate.  Their kicker cost them three games and they should be 5-3 at minimum.  That's why they are changing kickers this week.  Four of their five losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The Texans are 6-2 this season, but five of their six wins came by 6 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  Their lone blowout win came against the lowly New England Patriots.  They have one of the best kickers in the league, which has been a big difference for them.

While the Jets are pretty healthy right now, the Texans have major injury concerns especially on offense.  They were already without Nico Collins, and now they are going to be without Stephon Diggs who suffered a torn ACL against the Colts last week.  Those two have combined for 79 receptions for 1,063 yards and 6 TD this season and both will be sorely missed.  Fellow WR Tank Dell isn't fully healthy either, and he is really their last proven weapon on the outside.

The Texans are 6-12 SU in games where Nico Collins has received one or fewer targets.  CJ Stroud has looked lost without him the last few weeks.  He is averaging just 187.7 passing yards per game in his last three games despite getting to face the Patriots, Colts and Packers.  Now he'll be up against one of the best pass defenses he has faced this season.

The Jets rank 4th in total defense at 286.9 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 2nd against the pass allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game.  With a defense that elite, it just goes to show how unfortunate the Jets are to be 2-6 this season.  Their offense should be even better moving forward as they implement Devante Adams into the scheme.  

Aaron Rodgers just has too many weapons to be held down for too long.  I expect him and the Jets to get right this week.  Their best performance of the season also came on Thursday Night Football with a 24-3 home win over the Patriots.  This will be the first Thursday Night game for the Texans under DeMeco Ryans, and coaches in this situation for the first time have notoriously struggled.  Plus it's a long trip from Houston to New York on the short week to boot.  

The Texans are 'fat and happy' right now after beating the Colts for a second time this season last week, giving them a commanding lead in the awful AFC South division.  The Jets are pissed off and will be playing with their hair on fire this week as they try and save their season.  Bet the Jets on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that was a very misleading final against Navy.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis.  The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss.  Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week.  This value is too good to pass up again.

I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games.  Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites.  Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites.  They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed.  

Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday.  They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them.  Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave.  Bet Charlotte Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 221

I was on the under 217.5 last night between the Pelicans and Warriors, and I'll certainly take it again at an even better number of 221 tonight.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and with this being the 2nd meeting in 2 days these teams are obviously familiar with one another.

A big reason I was on the under last night was because the Warriors were without their top two scorers in Curry and Wiggins, while the Hawks were without one of their best scorers in Dejounte Murray.  There's a good chance all three will be out again tonight.

After just 98 combined points at halftime last night, these teams exploded by 132 combined points in the 2H and it was a pretty tough beat.  The Pelicans shot 53% as a team, while the Warriors shot an unsustainable 21-of-46 (46%) from 3-point range.  I think both teams are due some big-time shooting regression in the rematch tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -12

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and neck-and-neck with the Boston Celtics as the best teams in the NBA.  The three wins came by 15 at Denver, by 19 at Chicago and by 24 at home over Atlanta.

Now the Thunder have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to put on a show on ESPN tonight.  They get to host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS this season with their lone win coming over the Rockets by 3 at home in the 2nd of a back-to-back for Houston.  They lost by 11 at Dallas, and then lost tot he Rockets by 5 at home in the rematch.  This will be far and away their toughest test of the season, and they will be without two key players in Vassell and Jones tonight.

The Thunder own the Spurs going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Each of their last five wins have come by 12 points or more.  These games haven't even been close, and this one won't be either.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2

The Miami Heat are close to full strength right now and have great chemistry with basically their entire team back from last season.  They are playing with a sense of urgency early in the season because they are tired of having to make the playoffs through the play-in.  This looks like one of the best teams in the East on paper, and I like the switch to more 3's and more looks at the rim instead of mid-range jumpers from this team in the early going.

The New York Knicks are already banged up and short-handed, which cost them in the playoffs last season.  Jalen Brunson is already beat up, Josh Hart is questionable with a leg injury, and they are without two key bench pieces in Achiuwa and Robinson.  They are trying to implement Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges into the offense, and it's a work in progress in the early going.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series between Miami and New York.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons are 0-4 SU this season and highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have been very close to winning against some very good teams despite that record, and I expect them to get over the hump tonight against the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers.

The Pistons lost by 6 to the Pacers, by 12 to the Cavs, by 6 to the Celtics and by 8 to the Heat.  They took all those teams to the wire and all four are expected to be shoe-ins to make the playoffs this season.  They are very healthy right now to boot.

The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who are without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Paul George.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA without those two, and it is showing.  There's not much to like outside Tyrese Maxey, who has a lot on his shoulders trying to carry this team without their other two stars.

The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS including an upset loss to the lowly Toronto Raptors.  They also lost by 15 to the Bucks at home and pulled the surprising upset over the Pacers last time out, which has them overvalued now.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State +2.5

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while outscoring their opponents 203 to 64 in those four games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 74.5 points in those four games.  Now the Gamecocks come back as underdogs to Liberty tonight, and the wrong team is favored in this game.

Liberty is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS and very fortunate to be 5-1 SU.  The Flames came into the season as a popular pick to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With those expectations come inflated lines that have clearly been tough for them to live up to.

The Flames escaped with a 30-24 win at New Mexico State as a 22-point favorite, needed a double-digit comeback to beat East Carolina, only beat FIU 31-24 as 16-point favorites, and also struggled to put away both UTEP and Campbell by margin.

It all caught up to the Flames last week as they lost outright 27-24 to Kennesaw State as 26.5-point favorites.  Kennesaw State is widely considered the worst team in FBS as a first-year member this season.  They previously hadn't won a single game this season before beating Liberty.

Now with their playoff hopes dashed, I think it's the type of loss that came beat the Flames twice.  I don't expect them to show up this week against Jacksonville State.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks want revenge from a 31-13 loss to the Flames last season and won't have any problem showing up.  Plus they want to win the conference and are very live to do it.

New Mexico State and Kennesaw State are two common opponents of these teams.  Jacksonville State outscored those two teams 117-37, while Liberty only outscored those two teams 54-51.  Those results against common opponents show that the Gamecocks are the much superior team this season.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 217.5

Injuries to the Golden State Warriors are the reason I'm on the UNDER tonight.  They will be without their two best scorers in Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins.  They are going to have to rely on defense led by Draymond Green to try and be competitive until they get these guys back because they are going to be lost offensively without Curry and Wiggins.

The Pelicans spent a lot to get Dejounte Murray (22.5 PPG last season) from the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason.  Well, Murray suffered fractured hand in their opener and they will now be without him for 4-6 weeks.

In their two games without Murray since, the Pelicans struggled offensively scoring just 105 and 103 points in two meetings with the Portland Trail Blazers, who aren't exactly a top-notch defensive squad.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +5.5

The Denver Nuggets are the most overrated team in the NBA this season.  They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic in the offseason and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA.  They are top-heavy with Jokic, Gordon and Murray and it is showing.

Indeed, the Nuggets are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright 102-87 as 2-point home favorites to the Thunder, lost outright 109-104 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Clippers and needed a 14-point comeback to beat the lowly Toronto Raptors 127-125 (OT) as 8.5-point road favorites.

That's a Toronto team missing several of their best players and is currently likely the worst team in the NBA.  They also lost Scottie Barnes during the game.  But now the short-handed Nuggets will have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back off that OT win last night.  Jokic played 43 minutes, Gordon 42, Murray 39, Porter Jr. 39 and Braun 39.  They only had three players play any significant minutes off the bench, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight.

I've been impressed with the start by the Brooklyn Nets, who look to be a sleeper in the early going.  They Nets only lost by 4 at Atlanta as 7-point dogs and upset Milwaukee by 13 as 8.5-point home dogs in their lone home game.  They also lost by 15 to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Orlando Magic on the road.  Given the tough spot for the Nuggets, I think the Nets can hang tonight and will likely win this game outright.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* CFB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +9.5

New Mexico State has a big rest advantage in this game tonight which is a big reason I'm willing to back one of the worst teams in college football.  They are coming off a bye week and last played on October 15th.

I've been impressed with some performances by the Aggies this season, not the least of which was their 33-30 win as 12-point dogs to Louisiana Tech last time out.  They also took New Mexico to the wire in a 50-40 defeat, and they should have beaten Liberty letting them off the hook late in a 30-24 defeat as 22-point dogs.

Florida International will be playing for a 4th straight week and will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.  It has been an ugly look for the Panthers, who have lost three in a row including a 30-21 loss as 7-point favorites at UTEP, handing the Miners their lone win this season.  They also lost to Sam Houston State at home last week, and the Bearkats were without starting QB Hunter Watson.

Sitting at 2-6 on the season, I question how much the Panthers will be motivated to finish out this season.  Their bowl hopes are pretty much shot not.  I don't see them getting up to face New Mexico State tonight.

This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 43.5 and heavy winds in the forecast.  Getting nearly double-digits in low-scoring games is nice value as it is.  New Mexico State is the better rushing team averaging 162 rushing yards per game.  FIU allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  FIU only averages 104 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry offensively.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 123-116 road loss to the Lakers on October 25th.  They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now host the Lakers just three days later.

The Suns were impressive in their home opener beating the Mavericks 114-102 despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Mavericks were rested.  They were also without Bradley Beal, who could return to face the Lakers tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Lakers after opening 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three narrow wins all by 7 points or less.  All three wins were at home, and now they have to hit the road for the first time this season.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and won't be all that motivated to try and beat the Suns for a 2nd time this season.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Giants/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on New York +6

The New York Giants have been a much better road team than a home team for years and that continues to be the case this season.  I don't know if they can't handle the pressure of the New York media, or they obviously don't enjoy getting boo'd by there home fans, but there's clearly something to it.

While the Giants are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road.  They lost 21-18 at Washington as 1-point dogs only because they lost their FG kicker to an injury and had to go for 2 on all three of their touchdowns, failing each time.  They won 21-15 as 6.5-point dogs at Cleveland and they pulled the 29-20 upset as 7-point dogs at Seattle in their last road game.

Now we get the Giants in a similar price range here as 6-point road dogs at Pittsburgh.  While it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants off their embarrassing 28-3 home loss to the Eagles last week, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Steelers off their 37-15 win over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week.

The Steelers go from being just 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line to 6-point favorites now after what happened last week.  Everyone saw the Steelers crush the Jets on Sunday Night Football, so the betting public is hammering the Steelers hand over fist so far this week.

But that was a misleading 37-15 win over the Jets to say the least.  The Steelers only outgained the Jets 6.2 to 5.9 yards per play.  Aaron Rodgers had two costly interceptions, including a fluky one that bounce off of WR Garrett Wilson.  The Steelers got all the bounces in that game, and I don't believe that will happen again.

The Giants got great injury news with their two best pass rushers in NT Dexter Lawrence II and LB Brian Burns expected to play this week.  They are basically fully healthy on defense, and they are fully healthy on offense as well with the exception of LT Andrew Thomas.  Brian Daboll will scheme up a way to protect Daniel Jones from TJ Watt, plus Jones' mobility will be very useful.

The Steelers will be starting C Zach Frazier and his backup Nate Herbig.  Injuries to the center position are consistently not taken into account enough in terms of the line.  They are without NT Montravius Adams, NB Cameron Sutton and two backup LB's in Tyler Matakevich and Nick Herbig as well defensively.

Last week Russell Wilson was kept clean, but his immobility will be tested this week.  The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 31 and it is the strength of their team.  Daniel Jones is 18-7 ATS in his last 25 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Giants Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from their 109-106 loss in San Antonio on Saturday, October 26th.  They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now face the Spurs again two days later.

The Spurs had a huge rest advantage in that first meeting as they had the previous day off, while the Rockets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Grizzlies at home on Friday.  Now there is no rest advantage for the Spurs, and I expect them to get blasted by the Rockets, who are far and away the superior team this season.  

The Rockets are pretty much fully healthy while the Spurs are without Devin Vassell and could be without backup PG Tre Jones, who is important in spelling the aging Chris Paul.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* Dodgers/Yankees Game 3 No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

Both the Yankees and Dodgers are dead nuts OVER teams with arguably the best lineups in baseball but also two suspect rotations.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs per game while the Yankees are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  We have seen that play out in the postseason.

The Yankees scored at least 5 runs in all five of their games against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS.  The Dodgers scored at least 6 runs in five of their six games against the Mets in the NLCS.  Now the series shifts to New York to a hitter-friendly park and both offenses should have their way in Game 3.

Walker Buehler went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts in the regular season.  Buehler has allowed 7 earned runs in 14 innings in three starts in the postseason.  This will be his toughest test yet.

Clarke Schmidt has allowed 11 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 5.30 ERA.  Neither starter will last long in this one as this could be over the total by the end of the 5th inning.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -6

The Orlando Magic are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They brought back pretty much everyone from their team that took the Cavaliers to 7 games in the opening round of the playoffs.  They also added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Nuggets, and he is one of the best 3-and-D players in the league, and Denver clearly misses him.

But this is a play against the Pacers as much as anything.  This is a brutal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-114 (OT) loss at home to the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers last night who were without Embiid and George.

Haliburton played 37 minutes, Siakam 40, and Turner 37 minutes for the Pacers last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who had yesterday off and will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss this season at Memphis on Saturday.

The Magic are going to have a huge advantage in the paint because the Pacers have no depth behind Turner after losing C James Wiseman to injury in the opener.  They are getting killed on the boards and the Magic thrive rebounding the ball with all their size.  Bet the Magic Monday.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5.5

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They will be pissed off from their 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions who were off a bye and out for revenge last time out.  Now it's the Cowboys who will be pissed off, out for revenge and off a bye this week.

The Cowboys have had this game circled all offseason after losing each of their last three meetings with the 49ers including two in the playoffs.  But now it's the Cowboys who will be a lot healthier coming out of their bye, while the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries.

This 49ers lost their best receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury last week in their 28-18 loss to the Chiefs.  Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were hurt against the Chiefs as well and both are highly questionable to play in this game.  They were already without WR JuJuan Jennings and remain without him this week.  It's safe to say Brock Purdy's options are receiver are limited, and it helps explain his recent struggles after throwing 3 INT's to the Chiefs last week.

The 49ers had to face the Chiefs off their bye and now they have to face the Cowboys off their bye.  Schedule makers have done them no favors.  The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in road games with a 33-17 win at Cleveland, a 20-15 win at New York and a 20-17 win at Pittsburgh.  That win at Pittsburgh two games ago looks even better now, and it also came on Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to give the 49ers a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 105-103 home loss to the Pelicans on Friday, and they don't have to wait long to get it as they host the Pelicans here Sunday in a rematch.

Brandon Ingram hit the game-winner with only seconds remaining.  But there is a lot on his shoulders right now because the Pelicans just lost Dejounte Murray for 4-6 weeks to a fractured hand suffered in their opener.  They are short-handed right now and that's why they struggled with the Blazers in their first game without him.  They will struggle again here tonight.

The Blazers have a really good trio of starters Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and DeAndre Ayton.  I also like Scoot Henderson off the bench, and rookie Donovan Clingan is only going to continue to get more comfortable in the NBA with each passing game.  Simons and Grant combined for 58 points in that first matchup, and I expect them to shoulder the load in the rematch here.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team catching 6.5 points at home here.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER 220

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Blazers and Pelicans.  The Pelicans won 105-103 on a game-winner by Brandon Ingram on Friday night.  It will be another low-scoring game in the rematch tonight.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 214 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings, including the 208 they combined for on Friday.  The Pelicans being without Dejounte Murray makes them more of an UNDER team because he is a scorer and they will miss him considering how much they were relying on him coming into this season.  Trey Murphy is also out after averaging 14.8 points per game and 38% 3-point shooting last season, and they will miss his shooting.

The Blazers are going to have to rely more on defense this season to be competitive because they are lacking scorers outside of Grant and Simons.  They were held to 104 points by the Warriors and 103 by the Pelicans in their first two games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.  

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Denver Broncos -9.5

I locked in the Broncos -9.5 as soon as I found out Bryce Young would be starting for the Panthers this week.  You can still find a -9.5 at Circa, but I would still play this up to -10.  I hate laying big numbers in the NFL, but this has blowout written all over it.

I was on the Broncos last week when they blasted the Saints 33-10 on Thursday night football. That one looked obvious with all the injuries to the Saints, but the line still only closed Broncos -2.5.  This one looks obvious as well, but sometimes the obvious wins in the NFL.

The Panthers are the dregs of the NFL.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS with all six losses coming by double-digits.  But that doesn't even begin to explain how bad this team has been.  They are 28th in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game and 32nd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game.  They are getting outscored by 19 points per game on the season.

Their offense was at least respectable with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but it has no shot of succeeding with Bryce Young.  We saw that in the first two games of the season as the Panthers were outscored 73-13 with Young at quarterback.  Dalton suffered an injured thumb in a car accident this week and that's the only reason Young is starting.

But this Carolina defense is equally as bad as the offense.  The Panthers have allowed 34 or more points in four consecutive games and an average of 37 points per game.  It was really bad last week because the Commanders kept piling on the points with Marcus Mariota at quarterback once Jayden Daniels left with an injury.

The amount of players lost to injury on this Carolina defense is like nothing I've ever seen before in the NFL.  They have 8 players on IR, 2 players out, and another 7 players questionable.  That's 17 defenders on the injury report with 10 of them for sure out.  It's easy to see why this Carolina defense has been one of the worst we've ever seen.

Bo Nix has been at his best this season when the ground game is working and he can use his mobility on play-action.  The Broncos rushed for 225 yards on the Saints last week, and they are going to get 200-plus against the Panthers this week as well so they should be able to continue piling on the points in the 2H.  Carolina ranks dead last against the run allowing 162.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

While Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Denver has one of the best.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 15.1 points per game, 3rd in total defense allowing 282.4 yards per game and 1st allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They also get Patrick Surtain II back from a concussion this week, and he is arguably the top corner in the entire NFL.  Carolina will be missing WR Diontae Johnson, WR Adam Thielen and RB Jonathan Brooks on offense due to injury.

Denver also has the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, so they should be fresh and ready to go.  I don't foresee them having a letdown this week, which is what it would take for them to not win by double-digits.  Even then it still might not be enough.  The Panthers are hot garbage with Bryce Young at quarterback.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Bills/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER ticket between the Bills and Seahawks Sunday afternoon.  There is a 99% chance of rain with 17 MPH sustained winds in Seattle and gusts up to 35 MPH.  Points are going to be very hard to come by for these two teams.

The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 19.4 points per game.  Their job is going to be much easier this week not having to deal with Seattle's best weapon in DK Metcalf, who suffered a knee injury against the Falcons last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Seattle also has a banged-up offensive line and one of the worst units in the NFL.

What makes me really like this UNDER is the improvement of this Seattle defensive under head coach Mike McDonald, the former Ravens' defensive coordinator.  There were a banged up unit for much of the season, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season.  CB Riq Woolen makes his return this week, and CB Tre Brown is trending toward playing as well.  They traded for LB Ernest Jones IV last week as well.

We saw the Seahawks come up big in limiting the Falcons to 14 points last week indoors.  They forced three turnovers and they make Kirk Cousins look very average as he had one of his worst games of the season after previously lighting it up for multiple weeks.  McDonald will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Josh Allen, who had his worst game of the season scoring just 10 points against Baltimore earlier this season, which is a amateur version of McDonald's scheme.

This total is simply too high for this forecast and these two average offenses up against these two improving defenses.  This has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

The Indianapolis Colts have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as the best covering team in the NFL.  All three of their losses came by 6 points or less, and all four of their wins came by 6 points or less as well.  They just have a knack for playing in close games.

The same can be said for the Houston Texans, who are 5-2 SU this season with five of their seven games being decided by 6 points or less.  They were blown out 34-7 at Minnesota and the blew out New England 41-21 in Drake Maye's first career start.

The Colts have played this well despite being one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  But they are now about as healthy as they have been all season, and they get two of their best players back from injury this week.  RB Jonathan Taylor is back on offense while DT DeForest Buckner returns from IR.  Those two are huge for this team.

Speaking of injury-ravaged, the Texans are without two key defensive starters in LB Azeez Al-Shaiir and S Jimmie Ward, plus LB Henry To'oTo'o is questionable after missing last week.  But the biggest blow is on offense, where top receiver Nico Collins remains out.

Collins is far and away CJ Stroud's favorite target, and their offensive success has been night and day with him on or off the field in Stroud's career.  In fact, the Texans are just 5-12 SU in their 17 games in which Collins has received one target or fewer.  Stroud looked lost without him last week, throwing for just 86 yards on 21 attempts against the Packers.  The Texans were +3 in turnovers and still lost that game 24-22 to the Packers.

The Colts want revenge not only from their 23-19 loss to the Texans in Week 18 last year that kept them out of the playoffs, but also their 29-27 loss to the Texans in Week 1 this season.  This has been a closely-contested series that the Colts have actually dominated.

In fact, the Colts haven't lost by more than 6 points to the Texans in any of their last 25 meetings! That makes for a 25-0 system backing the Colts pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  This one will go down to the wire as well, and Indianapolis is a very live underdog this week.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Packers OVER 48.5

The Green Bay Packers have taken off offensively since Jordan Love returned to the lineup.  They rank 7th in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 6th in total offense at 383.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now.

The Packers should name their number against an awful Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in scoring at 27.7 points per game, 27th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars have been going heavy man-to-man defense this season and they just don't have the right pieces.  Love is going to torch their man-to-man scheme with all of his weapons.

Jacksonville has been respectable on offense this season ranking 13th at 5.8 yards per play and 16th at 325.9 yards per game.  But they haven't been fully healthy until now as they have both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis back.  They combine with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Christian Kirk to form one of the best set of weapons in the entire NFL.

The Jaguars are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because the Packers are going to get their points.  Green Bay could be without two starters in LB Quay Walker (concussion) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle), who are both questionable.  Either way, conditions are perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no run, and I think that's precisely what we get.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cardinals/Dolphins OVER 45.5

This Miami offense has been atrocious with backup QB's Huntley, Thompson and Boyle trying to fill the massive shoes left by Tua Tagovailoa.  But now Tagovailoa returns to what is a fully healthy Miami offense this week, and the Dolphins are now primed for their best offensive performance of the season.

This total is suppressed due to the Dolphins going under the total in five of their six games this season.  To that point, the total is also suppressed due to the Cardinals going 2-0-1 to the under in their last three games as well.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER.

The Dolphins will have their best offensive output of the season against an Arizona defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.4 points per game, 28th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They just lost their best pass-rusher to injury last week, have four defensive linemen on IR now, plus DT Ray Lopez has been ruled out.  The Dolphins will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, and  starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is out as well.

I don't think this Miami defense is as good as the numbers show.  The Dolphins have benefited from getting to face Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson in their last three games.  This is a big step up in class for them having to face the electric Kyler Murray and a very healthy Arizona offense.  The Cardinals rank 11th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Plus, the Dolphins suffered a blow in practice this week when starting DE Zach Sieler suffered a fractured orbital bone and may need surgery.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ravens/Browns OVER 44.5

The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL and it's not even closer.  They rank 1st in total offense at 461.4 yards per game and 1st at 7.4 yards per play.  They are also 2nd in scoring at 31.1 points per game.  They are going to get their 30-plus, and the Browns are primed for their best offensive performance of the season to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout Sunday.

The Browns have been held to 20 points or fewer in every game this season.  Just when their offensive line started to get healthy, QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury last week.  Then QB Dorian-Thompson Robinson got hurt, and third-string QB Jameis Winston led them on a TD drive to cut the deficit to 21-14 against the Bengals.

The fans and the media have been calling for Winston all season.  We saw what the Browns did last year with Joe Flacco earning Comeback Player of the Year by leading them to the playoffs after Watson got hurt.  I think Winston is capable of following in Flacco's footsteps.  He has a lot of boom or bust to him like Flacco, and he is great at stretching the field and testing all areas of an opposing defense.

This Cleveland offense has only one way to go which is up.  It looks like they should have four of their five starting offensive linemen healthy, which hasn't been the case all season.  RB Nick Chubb just returned from injury last week and should get more reps this week.

Defensive injuries are a big part of the story here too.  The Browns will be wihtout MLB Jordan Hicks.  The Ravens are likely to be without their best CB Marlon Humphrey, who suffered a knee injury last week against the Bucs.  Fellow starting CB Nate Wiggins is questionable, as is his backup in CB Jalyn Armous-Davis.  DT Travis Jones is questionable as well.

The biggest weakness of this entire Baltimore defense is their secondary as you can pass on them, which makes this a great matchup for Winston and company.  The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL allowing 287.1 passing yards per game and 28th at 7.5 yards per pass attempt.  They are going to be even worse without Humphrey this week.  

The OVER is 6-1 in Ravens seven games this season with 45 or more combined points in all seven, making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  This total is too low for a game involving the Ravens.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

This is a brutal spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  After needing OT to beat the short-handed Clippers in Los Angeles, they blew a 15-point 1st quarter lead to the Lakers and lost 123-116 last night.  They clearly wore down in the 2H, and they won't have much left in the tank for the rested Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Suns can't handle these back-to-back situations as well as most teams because they have one of the worst benches in the NBA.  Durant played 38 minutes, Beal 35 and Booker 35 last night.  These back-to-back situations are especially taxing on their Big 3.

The Mavericks brought back almost everyone from their team that made the NBA Finals last year.  They also added Klay Thompson on free-agency, and Thompson made a splash going 6-of-10 from 3-point range in their 120-109 win over the Spurs on Thursday in their opener.  They have one of the best benches in the NBA and will certainly have a big advantage when the Suns turn to their bench in this one.

The Mavericks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, which includes a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS record in their last four trips to Phoenix.  With such a big rest advantage here, the Mavericks are favored for good reason on the road and should win this game by 3-plus points to cover this 2.5-point spread.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  I came back on them last night in their 128-108 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies as they predictably shot much better.

I'm back on the Rockets again tonight because after making easy work of the Grizzlies, they will still have plenty of energy left for the Spurs tonight.  The Rockets are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these back-to-back situations better than most this season.

The Spurs are coming off a 120-109 road loss to the Mavericks in their opener.  I just don't love this team playing Chris Paul so many minutes.  It also hurts that they are without Paul's backup in PG Tre Jones, and arguably their best scorer in Devin Vassell is out as well.  There's just not a lot to like about this team right now aside from Victor Wembanyama, who the Rockets will focus on stopping.

The Rockets have owned the Spurs going 5-1 SU in the last six meetings with their lone loss coming in overtime.  Four of the five wins came by double-digits.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* Yankees/Dodgers Game 2 No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

Both the Yankees and Dodgers are dead nuts OVER teams with arguably the best lineups in baseball but also two suspect rotations.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs per game while the Yankees are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  We have seen that play out in the postseason.

The Yankees scored at least 5 runs in all five of their games against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS.  The Dodgers scored at least 6 runs in five of their six games against the Mets in the NLCS.  Both offenses are hot, and although we got lucky to cash the OVER 8 in Game 1 in extras, it finished with 9 combined runs.

I think we get the OVER in 9 innings tonight as both teams send some suspect starters who don't go deep into games to the mound, meaning both bullpens will get a lot of work.  Each of the last three meetings between the Dodgers and Yankees this season have seen 9 or more combined points.

Carlos Rodon has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 19 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  As you can see, he is averaging less than 5 innings per start.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has really struggled of late for the Dodgers.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings in his last five starts averaging just over 4 innings per start.  Both lineups will have their way with these starting pitchers and get them out of there early tonight.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Saturday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas +10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas Jayhawks this week.  They are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season, but no team has had worse luck in close games than the Jayhawks.  In fact, all five of their losses have come by 11 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  Both wins came in blowout fashion 48-3 over Lindenwood and 42-14 over Houston.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State, which has gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Wildcats beat a bad Oklahoma State team 42-20, snuck by Colorado 31-28 on the road, and took down West Virginia 45-18 on the road thanks to several key injuries for the Mountaineers throughout that game.

Kansas State has won 15 straight meetings with Kansas in this rivalry.  No question the Jayhawks are looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and they would make their season simply by winning this one game no matter what else happens.  That's why it will be easy for them to put the poor start behind them and look ahead to this game, and they started that last week coming back from their bye to crush Houston 42-14 while racking up 467 total yards on what is a very good Cougars defense.

Kansas came close to upsetting Kansas State last season losing 31-27 as 7-point home dogs.  No question they believe they can hang with the Wildcats, and they should not be catching double-digits here Saturday.  The Wildcats only have slightly better numbers than the Jayhawks this season, not numbers that warrant being a double-digit favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Spartans are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State.  That's how close they are to being 7-0.

Just looking at the numbers it's easy to see San Jose State is a better team than Fresno State.  The Spartans rank 35th in scoring at 32.1 points per game, 50th at 427.7 yards per game and 51st at 6.4 yards per play.  They allow 24.4 points per game, 372.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play on the season.

Fresno State averages 28.1 points per game, 375.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense.  The Bulldogs allow 26.6 points per game, 343 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  They are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game and outgaining them by 0.5 yards per play.

The Bulldogs are really trending in the wrong direction right now.  They lost 59-14 at UNLV three weeks ago, came back and lost 25-17 at home to Washington State and then were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 win at Nevada when you consider the Wolf Pack lost their starting QB in that game to injury.

Nevada and Washington State are common opponents of these two teams, and San Jose State played those two teams much better than Fresno State did.  This line should be much closer to PK than 5.5.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M ML -140

The LSU Tigers are starting to get too much respect after wins and covers against Ole Miss and Arkansas the last two weeks.  They were in a great spot against Ole Miss coming off their bye while Ole Miss was tired and banged up, and they upset the Rebels at home in OT in a night game in Baton Rouge.

Last week they went on the road as 3-point favorites and took down Arkansas by a final of 34-10.  This was a very misleading final as the Tigers benefited from being +3 in turnovers with one that set up an easy TD for LSU and another that took points off the board for Arkansas.  LSU only averaged 5.5 yards per play while Arkansas averaged 5.6 yards per play.

That misleading final is providing us with excellent line value to fade the Tigers this week.  Couple that with the fact that Texas A&M failed to cover last week against a pesky Mississippi State team, and we have great line value to back the Aggies this week.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 34-24 as 21-point road favorites last week.  That's the same Mississippi State team that took Georgia to the wire on the road the previous week.  The Bulldogs are quickly becoming one of the most undervalued teams in the country since they made the switch at quarterback.

Texas A&M handed Missouri its lone loss of the season the game prior winning 41-10 as 2.5-point home favorites.  Now back at home behind the 12th man and a night game in College Station, the Aggies will have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere for LSU, which hasn't faced a road game this tough all season yet.

Texas A&M has the better defense in this one holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play while LSU allows 5.8 yards per play.  LSU has a slight advantage on offense averaging 6.5 yards per play compared to 6.2 for Texas A&M.  The Aggies are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Tigers on the season.  

The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings, so home-field advantage has been huge in this series. A night game in College Station is worth even more.  I'll skip the spread and back the Aggies on the money line just to win outright.  Bet Texas A&M on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan BTN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5

The Michigan State Spartans went through the gauntlet to open the season playing for six consecutive weeks that concluded with two games against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon.  It's safe to say they needed their bye week to get healthy and regroup two weeks ago.

The Spartans came out of their bye and looked like a new team in a 32-20 upset home win over Iowa as 6.5-point underdogs.  I backed the Spartans in that game, and it was as easy as it gets.  The only reason it stayed close was because the Spartans settled for seven field goals, making six of them.  They outgained Iowa 468 to 283 for the game, or by 185 total yards.  Gaining 468 yards on that Iowa defense is no small feat.

A big reason I was on the Spartans in that game was because they are elite against the run, and Iowa can only run the football.  The same can be said for Michigan, which relies heavily on the run like Iowa to move the football.  The Wolverines average 180 rushing yards per game compared to just 128 passing yards per game.  Well, Michigan State allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which is impressive when you consider they have had to play Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa in consecutive weeks.

Michigan is 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season and continues to get too much respect from the books on a weekly basis.  The Wolverines were 5-point favorites at Illinois last week, and they got upset 21-7 by the Fighting Illini.  They weren't impressive in any of their four wins, and two game by exactly 3 points at home over USC and Minnesota.  

The other two were also at home against Arkansas State by 10 and Fresno State by 20, and that Fresno State game was a lot closer than the final score.  The three losses all came by double-digits by 14 at Illinois, by 10 at Washington and by 19 at home to Texas.  So the Wolverines have actually been outscored on the season by 7 points total.  This team just isn't very good, and they should not be laying more than a FG at home to the Spartans.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a brutal spot for the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for the Miami Heat tonight.

The Hornets pulled the 110-105 upset win in their opener on Wednesday before falling short 125-120 in Atlanta last night.  So they used max effort in both games, and they lost one of their best players in Brandon Miller to injury, and he remains out tonight.

The Heat will be highly motivated for a victory after losing 116-97 at home to the Orlando Magic in the opener.  They have had the last two days off to practice and get things right heading into this one.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 2-of-13 shooting and 12 points in that loss to the Magic, and they will be much sharper tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Hornets.

The Heat owned the Hornets last season winning all four meetings.  They should make easy work of this tired Charlotte team with a huge rest advantage tonight.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/TCU FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 66

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday in Big 12 play when the Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the TCU Horned Frogs.  Both offenses have embraced playing fast as TCU ranks 15th in tempo while Texas Tech ranks 24th.  There will be more possessions in this game and more points as a result.

Texas Tech is coming off a 59-35 loss to Baylor in which conditions weren't great for scoring as it was very windy with a total of just 56.5.  They allowed a whopping 629 total yards to the Bears.  Three games ago they were in a 44-41 shootout with Cincinnati that saw 85 combined points.

I think TCU's result last week against Utah is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Utes have no offense right now with all their injuries, and they play very slow.  They beat Utah 13-7 on the road last week.  This came a week after a game against a similar Houston team with no offense that stays under the total.

When TCU has faced another offense on Texas Tech's level, they have been in high-scoring games.  Their previous three games all went OVER the total with a 38-27 win at Kansas and 65 combined points, a 66-42 loss at SMU and 108 combined points and a 35-34 loss to UCF and 69 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team that runs a fast-paced offense and plays zero defense.  The Cowboys rank 9th in the country in tempo with 22.7 seconds between snaps on offense.  They rank 130th in total defense allowing a whopping 490.6 yards per game.

In their last three games the Cowboys allowed 42 points to Kansas State, 38 points to West Virginia and 38 to BYU.  Now they are facing a revived Baylor offense that just put up 59 points and 629 total yard on Texas Tech last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall combining for 69 points with Colorado, 62 with BYU, 64 with Iowa State and 94 with Texas Tech.  They allowed 35 to Texas Tech, 43 to Iowa State, 34 to BYU and 38 to Colorado, so they have a very poor defense like Oklahoma State.  

Baylor also plays fast ranking 11th in tempo at 23.0 seconds between snaps, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game with the Cowboys 9th in tempo.  Neither team can be expected to get many stops in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/UCF OVER 55

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  The Knights rank 23rd in tempo averaging 24.2 seconds between snaps.  There are extra possessions in UCF games, and they will really try to ramp up the pace playing at home Saturday.

BYU has also been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Cougars are 5-2 OVER in all games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three Big 12 games combining for 73 points with Oklahoma State, 60 points with Arizona and 62 points with Baylor.  It should be more of the same here against UCF.

BYU ranks 23rd in the country in scoring at 34.9 points per game.  UCF ranks 48th at 31.3 points per game, but they are better than that because they are 14th in total offense at 465.6 yards per game and 23rd at 6.6 yards per play.  You can run on this BYU defense, and the Knights will have success just like they did against Iowa State last week.

The Knights racked up 35 points and 354 rushing yards on Iowa State.  I like dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown, who has rushed for 176 yards on 25 carries while averaging 7.0 per carry in two starts this season.  BYU just allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State last week, and that's a Cowboys team that could not run the football at all against anyone previously.

The Cougars also have a dual-threat QB in Jake Retzlaff, who has a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores while averaging 5.4 per carry.  Both defensive coordinators will have their hands full this week.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total should be set in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Northwestern +14

The Iowa Hawkeyes have a terrible offense once again this season and have no business laying two touchdowns to the Northwestern Wildcats.  The Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional running team that averages just 136.9 passing yards per game.

A big reason I faded Iowa last week with Michigan State is because they were very good against the run, and they beat Iowa 32-20 and shut down their running game.  Well, Northwestern has a similar profile.  The Wildcats rank 21st in the country against the run allowing 103.4 rushing yards per game and 19th at 3.2 yards per carry allowed.  They will force Iowa to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think they're capable.

Northwestern just upset Maryland 37-10 as 10.5-point road underdogs in their last road game.  They have been a great bet a road underdog for years.  They have no home-field advantage so they are consistently overvalued at home, but on the road it's the complete opposite.

This has been a closely-contested series with six of the last eight meetings decided by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes allowed 468 total yards to a very suspect Michigan State offense last week.  I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to stay within this inflated number while shutting down Iowa's offense as well.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* Illinois/Oregon CBS ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +21.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  This despite facing four ranked teams at the time they played them.  They are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football and should not be catching more than 3 touchdowns to Oregon this week.

Illinois upset Kansas at home, upset Nebraska on the road and upset Michigan at home.  The Fighting Illini were tied 7-7 with Penn State on the road midway through the 3rd quarter before eventually losing 21-7 as 19-point underdogs in their lone defeat.  They won't be intimated by Oregon, and they won't go down easily.

One of the best-kept secrets in the country is the play of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, who has an absurd 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  Bret Bielema has clearly gotten the message to him that if he doesn't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone.  He also has two stud receivers in Bryant and Franklin who have combined for 61 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TD this season.

While the offense doesn't beat itself, the defense is once again the strength as the Fighting Illini rank 26th in the country in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed despite the tough schedule.  I think they'll be able to hold Oregon in check on Saturday to stay within this inflated number.

Oregon has been held to 37 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season, and they only have two wins by more than 21 points, which came against Purdue and Oregon State.  That 35-0 win over Purdue last week was very misleading as they only outgained the Boilermakers by 121 yards.  The Boilermakers simply could not do anything once they got into plus-territory.

Oregon relies heavily on Dillon Gabriel and the short passing game to move the football as they only averaging 158 rushing yards per game this season.  Well, the forecast is going to make it very difficult to throw the ball with a 90% chance of rain the entire game in Eugene Saturday afternoon.  The forecast is going to keep scoring suppressed and it's going to favor the underdog catching 3 touchdowns.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Oregon UNDER 55

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 55 ticket between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Oregon Ducks.  There is a 90% chance of rain during the entire game in Eugene.  Both teams are going to run the football more than normal, which will keep the clock moving and limit explosive plays.

Illinis is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is.  The Fighting Illini rank 87th in tempo averaging 27.2 seconds in between snaps.  The UNDER is 5-2 in all Illinois games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  They rank 26th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 18.1 points per game.

Oregon is also playing slower than average ranking 80th in the country in tempo at 27 seconds in between snaps.  The Ducks only average 158 rushing yards per game compared to 300 passing, so their passing game will be limited by this rain.  They are only averaging 4.5 yards per rush as well so that has been a weakness for their offense.

This Oregon defense has been more impressive than the offense.  Dan Lanning is a defensive guy so it makes sense.  The Ducks rank 15th in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game allowed and 17th in total defense at 298 yards per game allowed.  Illinois ranks 90th in total offense at 366 yards per game.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four games overall with 35, 41 and 47 combined points on the three unders against Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA.  The only game that went over was against Ohio State and their elite offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple/East Carolina OVER 48.5

The East Carolina Pirates are an absolute mess right now especially defensively.  Their performances in their last two games are most concerning.  They lost 55-24 at Charlotte two games ago while allowing 517 total yards including 311 rushing.  Last week they trailed Army 38-7 in the 4th quarter before scoring 21 points in garbage time to make it a misleading final.  They allowed another 295 rushing yards to Army. I question how much this ECU defense has left in the tank after giving up over 600 rushing yards and 100 points in their last two games.

The Temple Owls have been a much better team with QB Evan Simon healthy and out there, which he was last week against Tulsa.  Simon is completing 65% of his passes for 977 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his four starts this season.  I expect Simon to light up this East Carolina defense this week.

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team because they have such a soft defense, plus they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo offensively in the country at 21.0 seconds in between snaps.  They should also have plenty of success offensively against a Temple defense that ranks 115th in scoring allowing 32.4 points per game.

This total should be set in the 50's at a minimum, and we are getting a discount here on OVER 48.5.  The last time these two teams faced off we saw 95 combined points and over 1,100 total yards combined between them.  East Carolina would be 4-0 OVER in their last four games with a total this low combining for 73 points with Army, 79 with Charlotte, 50 with UTSA and 59 with Liberty.  Temple and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points six of their seven games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/North Texas OVER 65.5

North Texas is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 68 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They even combined for 61 with a terrible Wyoming offense that plays slow.

North Texas ranks 5th in the country in tempo at 21.9 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Mean Green rank 3rd in total offense at 528.0 yards per game and 10th at 7.1 yards per play as well as 9th in scoring at 41.3 points per game.  They are very leaky defensively ranking 124th in scoring at 35.7 points per game and 121st at 445.7 yards per game allowed.

Tulane will score at will on this North Texas defense.  The Green Wave have gone for 41, 45 and 71 points in three of their last four games.  They will hang a big number on the Mean Green, but I think this North Texas offense will keep coming as they always do every week.  They kept coming last week in a 52-44 loss at Memphis in which they racked up 653 total yards on what was previously a very good Tigers defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +18.5

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that misleading 51-17 final last week is providing us with some line value to back Charlotte this week as 18.5-point dogs at Memphis.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

Navy is a common opponent of these two teams as Memphis suffered its only loss to Navy by a final of 56-44.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards on Memphis.  I just have not been impressed with this Memphis team at all this season, especially in their last four games.

Following that upset loss to Navy, Memphis only beat Middle Tennessee 24-7 as 27-point home favorites.  That's a MTSU team that has been getting blasted by everyone else.  They only won 21-3 on a neutral in Orlando against USF, which was without its starting QB and dealing with the aftermath of the hurricane.  And last week Memphis beat North Texas 52-44 as 11-point home favorites.

The Tigers were fortunate to win that game against North Texas when you consider they were outgained by 127 yards while allowing a whopping 653 total yards to the Mean Green.  I question how much their defense has left in the tank this week.  I expect this Charlotte offense to have one of their best games of the season to keep them in this game for four quarters.  

The 49ers want revenge from a 44-38 (OT) loss to Memphis as 10-point underdogs last season, adding to their motivation.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -2

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  But now this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets as only 2-point home favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  They are due some positive shooting regression.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz. Memphis is missing four key players right now in Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, Vince Williams and GG Jackson.  I don't think they have the horses to take down the Rockets on the road, especially without Jackson Jr.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 221.5

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season both ATS and on OVER bets.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  But the Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and this total is lower than it should be because of that poor shooting performance in their opener.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz with 250 combined points. Memphis is missing its best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr., and the Grizzlies are going to be an OVER team until he returns to lead their defense.  They have plenty of offense without him and are an OVER team as long as Ja Morant is on the floor and running this offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5

I think the Chicago Bulls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Billy Donovan has embraced playing faster and shooting more 3's in the preseason, and getting rid of DeMar DeRozan will allow them to play more team basketball now.

Coby White, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu are all back and healthy this season.  They traded for Josh Giddey of the Thunder and added Jalen Smith from the Pacers.

This is a good time to 'buy low' on the Bulls after losing 123-111 at New Orleans as 5-point underdogs in their opener.  The Bulls shot just 10-of-34 (29%) from 3-point range and are due some positive shooting regression.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks, who took advantage of the 76ers being without their two best players in Embiid and George and won 124-109 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  The Bucks shot 54% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression, plus they take a big step up in class here against the Bulls.

The Bulls went 3-1 ATS in their four meetings with the Bucks last season with three of the four decided by 9 points or less, including two that went to OT.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* Yankees/Dodgers Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 8

Both the Yankees and Dodgers are dead nuts OVER teams with arguably the best lineups in baseball but also two suspect rotations.  We have seen that play out in the postseason.

The Yankees score at least 5 runs in all five of their games against the Cleveland Guardians.  The Dodgers scored at least 6 runs in five of their six games against the Mets last series.  Both offenses are hot, and that will carry over into Game 1 of this series tonight.

The Dodgers will start Jack Flaherty, who allowed 8 earned runs in 3 innings to the Mets in his last start.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five of his last six starts and a total of 22 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings in those six starts for a 6.75 ERA during this stretch.

Gerrit Cole hasn't been exactly dominant in the postseason allowing 6 earned runs and 25 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Cole has allowed 9 earned runs and 23 base runners in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Friday.

20* Louisville/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Boston College +7

This is a terrible spot for the Louisville Cardinals.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are on a short week with travel to boot.  Each of their last five games went down to the wire so they have had to put in max effort.  I just don't think they'll have much left in the tank Friday night.

The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are coming off another gut-wrenching 52-45 home loss to Miami last week that pretty much eliminated them from ACC title contention.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and the Cardinals have no business laying 7 points on the road here given the spot.  Not to mention it's a sandwich spot coming off the Miami game and with another huge game at Clemson on deck next week.

Boston College will be playing just its 2nd game in 20 days.  The Eagles are rested and ready to go.  They are also back home where they are 3-0 this season with solid wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and keep in mind they didn't have starting QB Thomas Castellanos for the WKU game.

Castellanos is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 161 yards and a score on the ground.  This Louisville defense is really gassed after allowing 52 points to Miami last week, 449 yards to Virginia two weeks ago, 34 points to SMU three weeks ago and 31 points to Notre Dame four weeks ago.  I don't think they will have the energy to chase around Castellanos for four quarters.

Boston College has a solid defense that will hold Louisville in check.  The Eagles allow 20.7 points per game, 351.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the West this season.  They earned the No. 1 seed last year.  They traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein, though he will miss a month to injury.  Getting Caruso in their for Josh Giddey is an instant upgrade.

While I'm very high on the Thunder this season, I'm pretty low on the Denver Nuggets.  They just don't have much to like outside Jokic, Murray, Gordon and Porter Jr.  They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic, and he's one of the best 3-and-D guards in the league.

The Nuggets acquired the No. 22 overall pick DaRon Holmes II from the Phoenix Suns on draft night, but he has since torn his Achilles.  They had to sign Dario Saric to be Jokic's backup, and that's a problem.  They also signed Russell Westbrook, and we know how much of a cancer he can be off the bench.  The Nuggets' lack of quality depth is a big problem this season.

The Thunder went 3-0 SU in their final three meetings with the Nuggets last season including a pair of upset wins in Denver.  I fully expect them to win their opener outright as well.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

The Rams received a much-needed bye week and came out of it healthier.  They beat the Raiders 20-15 last week off their bye holding the Raiders to five field goals.  Now more reinforcements are on the way with Cooper Kupp expected to return this week, and the offense will be more dynamic this week than is has been at any other point this season with the exception of Week 1 when they took the Lions to OT on the road.

The Rams now sit at 2-4 on the season, but just 1.5 games back in their division.  They know a win over the Vikings Thursday night would get them right back in it, and I expect them to win this game outright.

This is a tough spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Detroit Lions, which are their biggest contenders to win the division.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face the Rams on a short week, especially when they have to travel all the way to Los Angeles in between.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Plus, teams after facing the physical Lions are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 25.9 points per game.  This trend has been great over the last couple seasons as well.

Of course, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season.  They have benefited from only having to play two true road games this season, and one came against the Giants and the other was against the Packers with Jordan Love hobbled in his first game back from injury.  Love gifted the Vikings 3 interceptions and spotted them a 28-0 lead, only to see the Packers come back and lose by only 2.  I would argue this will be Minnesota's toughest road test of the season with the Rams getting healthier, and the Vikings on a short week with travel.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 231.5

The Boston Celtics showed what kind of team they are going to be this season in their opener against the New York Knicks.  They are going to shoot even more 3's this season and embrace it, just as many other NBA teams are expected to do.  This is quickly becoming an 'OVER' league as a result.

Nobody shoots the 3-pointer better than the Celtics, and that was on display in their 132-109 home win over the Knicks in the opener that saw 241 combined points.  They tied an NBA record with 29 made 3's on a whopping 61 attempts.  They missed their last 13 attempts trying to break the record.  Only 41 points were scored in the 4th quarter and it still finished with 241 combined.

Now the Celtics face the Washington Wizards, who are coming off the worst record in team history at 15-67.  A big reason for their struggles is the fact that they were the worst defensive team in the NBA, and it's not going to get much better this season.  They are still led by two one-way players in Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma who don't play defense.  They will implement some good young talent this season, but they won't be better defensively.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 254, 234, 262, 233, 241 and 251 combined points.  As you can see, all six went over this 231.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -4.5

The Phoenix Suns already had the Big 3 of Durant, Beal and Booker.  They just needed the right pieces around them and the right head coach, and I think they had the best hire of the offseason in bringing in Mike Budenholzer, who won a title in 2021 with the Bucks over the Suns.

Despite having some of the best shooters on the planet, the Suns shot just 32.6 3-pointers per game last season.  The best teams shoot around 40 each night.  In five preseason games, the Suns averaged 44 3-point attempts per game.

The big addition was Tyus Jones from the Wizards as he can be the point guard to run the offense so the ball doesn't stick in the Big 3's hands.  He is a real point guard, Monte Morris is a real backup and Mason Plumlee will do the dirty work off the bench behind Jusuf Nurkic.  This now looks like a real contender in the West.

As much as I love the Suns, this is more of a play against the Clippers than anything.  They traded away Paul George in the offseason, and Kawhi Leonard is hurt to start the season to nobody's surprise.  So they are without their two best players from last year.  James Harden is way past his prime and will be counted upon to do too much until Leonard is ready to return.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

The Charlotte Hornets are relying too much two injury-plagued youngsters in LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams.  Ball will be healthy to start the season, but Williams is already out.  I like parts of Brandon Miller's game, but there's just not much to like about this team as a whole.  They have yet another new head coach in Charles Lee, and it's going to take some time for this team to gel.  They aren't on the Rockets' level on opening night, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State -20.5

Jacksonville State has been an absolute wagon in their last three games.  They beat Southern Miss 44-7 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State 63-24 as 17-point favorites and New Mexico State 54-13 as 21-point favorites.  They have covered the spread in those three games by a combined 73 points and outscored their opponents by a combined 117 points.

Now the Gamecocks are off a bye week and ready to run it up on another bad team in Middle Tennessee.  I don't mind laying big numbers with teams like Jacksonville State who play at a super fast tempo, which means more possessions.  They rank 12th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.

Middle Tennessee has been embarrassing to say the least.  The Blue Raiders lost by 28 at home to Western Kentucky, by 28 at home to Duke, by 49 at Ole Miss and by 27 at LA Tech.  They also struggled to put away the worst team in college football last week in Kennesaw State in a 14-5 win.  To compare, Jacksonville State blasted Kennesaw State 63-24.  

The Blue Raiders are also in a tough spot playing their 3rd game in 14 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, who are fresh off a bye week and haven't played since October 9th.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.