15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah/Cal OVER 153

Utah is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1 OVER in its eight games this season.  The Utes and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in six of their eight games.  They rank 133rd in adjusted tempo, 118th in adjusted offense and 153rd in adjusted defense.  They have some elite scorers on offense but don't play a lick of defense.

California also likes to play faster ranking 136th in adjusted tempo while being better on offense (64th) than defense (81st).  The Golden Bears are 3-1 OVER in their last four games, and they have finished with 152 or more combined points in four of their last five games.  They even beat UCLA 80-72 for 152 combined points against a Bruins team that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UConn/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 144

This game will be played at a snail's pace with elite defense.  UConn ranks 313th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  Kansas ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.

Kansas will be without leading scorer Darryn Peterson (21.5 PPG) tonight and has had to rely even more on defense without him.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 144 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 133 or fewer in four of them.

UConn is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games overall despite playing two great teams who both like to play fast.  They went for 135 combined points with Illinois and 138 with Arizona while also going for 121 with Bryant.  This total of 144 has been set too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to the Nuggets.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch.  They are actually playing better without JA Morant.

Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been dominant inside for the Grizzlies.  And they will have a huge advantage with those two in the paint over the Spurs, who remain without Victor Wembenyama and Stephon Castle.  They are playing Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk big minutes because of it, and that is the worst big man combo in the NBA.

I also think the Spurs in a letdown spot of the schedule.  They miraculously pulled off the 139-136 win in Denver against the short-handed Nuggets to clinch their spot in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  They promptly lost at Minnesota 125-112 their next time out, and they won't be motivated to beat the Grizzlies tonight, either.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be dealing with the distractions of missing Thanksgiving on the highway and trying to make up for it back home.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in its last six home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in four of their last five home games.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last two games finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio and 234 with Boston.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 8th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Pelicans and Timberwolves.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Florida/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 157.5

Duke is a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-1 UNDER in its eight games this season finishing with 151 or fewer combined points in six of its eight games.  The Blue Devils rank 199th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted defense.  They rank 361st in average length of defensive possession at 19.1 seconds making opponents work hard just to get a shot up.  They are allowing just 58.8 points per game this season on 34% shooting.

Florida lost all its good guards from the team that won the national title last year.  The Gators are a much worse offensive team as a result and having to rely more on defense this season.  Their top two scores are F/C's in Concon and Haugh.  They only have two guards barely averaging double-digits scoring in Fland (12.0 PPG, 38.2% shooting) and Klavzar (10.6 PPG, 40.4% shooting).  They are really lacking in the shooting department.

That helps explain why Florida is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall.  The Gators want to play fast, but they just can't do so as efficiently as they did last year with this poor guard play.  But the Gators haven't missed a beat defensively ranking 10th in the country in adjusted defense.  Duke will slow this game down to a crawl controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on William & Mary +6.5

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 6-1 ATS in lined games and have played six of their first nine games on the highway against the 124th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits, and it will give Duquesne fits tonight, too.

Duquesne is 5-2 this season with an upset loss to Northwestern.  All five wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 200 and they needed OT to beat Queens.  They have played the 347th-ranked schedule in the country.  This is a bad team that will get exposed tonight.

Duquesne is allowing 80.3 points per game this season with defense being optional.  That's real poor when you consider how weak their schedule has been.  They can't be trusted to be a 6.5-point favorite here against a better William & Mary squad.  Bet William & Mary Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cornell/George Mason OVER 153

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 11th in adjusted tempo, 7th in average length of offensive possession, 101st in adjusted offense and just 252nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9th in effective FG percentage (61.1%) and 9th in 3-point percentage (41.7%) on offense.

The Big Red are 4-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 159 or more combined points in six of their seven games, including 173 or more in five of them.  This total of 153 is very short for a game involving Cornell.

I realize George Mason likes to play much closer, but the Patriots won't mind running with the Big Red.  The Patriots are 79th in adjusted offense, 80th in effective FG percentage and 39th in 3-point percentage.  They have a trio of very good guards in Mincy (19.6 PPG), Troutman (12.3 PPG) and Long (12.3 PPG) that will relish this opportunity to put up big numbers on this sad Cornell defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-6 OVER in all games this season, including 4-1 OVER in their last five games combining for 248 or more points in four of those five.  The only game that went under was a home-and-home situation against the Jazz in the 2nd meeting with familiarity leading to it.

The Lakers are a perfect 9-0 OVER at home this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in all nine home games, and 234 or more combined points in each of their last six home games.

The Suns profile as more of an OVER team in their current state.  They just got Grayson Allen back in the lineup and they have been without his scoring for seven games.  Allen takes a lot of pressure off Devin Booker to provide the offense.  Mark Williams is healthy and great on the offensive end as well.

The Suns are 2-0 OVER in their last two games combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 242 points with the Nuggets.  It will be more of the same tonight in a shootout with the Lakers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Nuggets OVER 233

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They are all offense and no defense right now.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall going for 240 or more combined points in all four games.

Nikola Jokic has been dominant again this season leading the Nuggets to ranking 1st place in offensive rating, scoring 123.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Nuggets have now scored 122 or more points in nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are a wagon on offense this season.

The Mavericks have turned into more of an OVER team this season ranking 6th in pace as Jason Kidd has embraced playing with more pace.  The injury report also makes the Mavs more of an OVER team right now playing without two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball.  Anthony Davis is back healthy and will form a great 1-2 punch with Cooper Flagg on the offensive end when he's in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Giants/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Giants are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 51 or more in five of them.  They have a healthy offense but a banged up, terrible defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will be without LB Thibodeaux again today.  Their defense is gassed after a 34-27 (OT) loss at Detroit.  They racked up 517 total yards and played great offensively, but they allowed 494 total yards and couldn't get a stop in OT after a 27-27 tie going into it.

The Giants won't be getting many stops against the Patriots, either.  The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in all nine games during their current 9-game winning streak.  Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites, and he is getting the most out of his ample healthy weapons right now.  The Patriots rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Giants are once again be forced to try and keep up in a shootout, and I have faith in their offense to be able to punch back.  Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion here and should be ready to go.  There's not much difference between him and Jameis Winston.  The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  The offensive is pretty much fully healthy right now with the exceptions of the guys they lost to IR early in the season.

I expect the Patriots to get to 28 or more in this one and the Giants to score at least 20 for a 8th consecutive game.  It will be cold in New England tonight, but there is no wind and no precipitation so the forecast looks good for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Magic OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season playing as fast as possible.  In their last two meetings with the Magic last season they combined for 252 and 248 points.

The Magic have transformed into a dead nuts OVER team without Paulo Banchero.  They have to play more small ball and they play a lot faster while also sharing the ball more.  The Magic are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They went for 247 combined points with Philadelphia, 267 with Boston and 254 with New York in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat are 13-7 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all year right now and primed for a big effort tonight hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 5-15 SU & 5-15 ATS.  The Clippers have been the most disappointing team in the NBA, and they are not healthy at all right now.

The Heat are without Beal, Jones Jr. and Bogdanovic.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who were both short-handed when they beat them as well.  They have now lost four straight with the other two being blowout road losses to the Lakers by 17 and Cavs by 15.  Another blowout road loss will be their fate tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* Broncos/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +6.5

The Denver Broncos are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams I've ever seen.  But because of that misleading record, the Broncos are now nearly TD road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.  We'll gladly 'sell high' on the Broncos and 'buy low' on the Commanders in this one.

The Broncos have won three straight games by exactly 3 points to improve to 7-2 in one-score games this season.  They have six wins by 4 points or less!  They have simply been fortunate in close games, which is why I say they are nowhere near as good as their record.  Their offense has taken a step back with Bo Nix, and they play a very conservative brand relying on the strength of their team which is their defense.  That conservatism makes it difficult for them to get margin.

The Broncos have only played four true road games all season so they have benefited from an easy schedule.  They are 2-2 SU in those true road games with the two wins coming by 4 at Philly after overcoming a 17-3 deficit and by 3 at Houston after CJ Stroud got knocked out early.  Asking them to go on the road here and win by a TD or more to beat us is asking too much.

I've been fading the Commanders a lot lately simply because they were decimated by injuries.  But they are coming off their bye week and get a lot of key guys back from injury this week that they were missing.  Their best playmaker in WR Terry McClaurin is back, their best defensive lineman in DT Daron Payne is back, and they get back FS Will Harris in the secondary from IR.

Dan Quinn has no quit in him, and he will have the Commanders ready to go this week in this National TV spot on Sunday Night Football.  While the bye came at the perfect time for the Commanders, it came at a poor time for the Broncos.  They had a lot of momentum going into the bye with a last-second win over the rival Chiefs.  I suspect the Broncos were 'fat and happy' over the last two weeks after beating the Chiefs, and they will come out of the bye sluggish and rusty knowing that they have a commanding lead in the division.

The Broncos have actually trailed in all 11 games they have played this season.  They are playing with fire and will eventually get burnt.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.  They suffered a blowout loss at Jacksonville in their last game.  They were a tired, beat up team that desperately needed a bye week and they got that bye last week.  Now they come out of the bye almost as healthy as they have been all season, and they are refreshed and ready to make a playoff run.

It starts with a blowout home victory over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who get blown out on a regular basis.  The Raiders are 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming against the Tennessee Titans (1-10), the only team with a worse record than them this season.  Six of Vegas' nine losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point home loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.

Chip Kelly was the scapegoat, but there's no hope for this Las Vegas offense no matter who is calling plays.  The offensive line is decimated with injuries playing without both starting tacklers in Kolton Millwer and Jackson Powers-Johnson.  RG Jordan Meredith is questionable as well.  They traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, and now TE Michael Mayer is out.  Geno Smith is washed, and opposing defenses basically just have to lock in on stopping RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.  You know the Chargers have prepared to do just that for the last two weeks.

The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 10th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 286.1 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  The Chargers are fully health on defense coming out of the bye week and will be one of the best stop units in the NFL moving forward as long as that's the case.  They'll be up against a Raiders offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in scoring at 15.0 points per game, 30th at 268.9 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

The Chargers have elite talent on offense and will be healthier on the offensive line coming out of the bye.  They rank 12th in total offense at 347.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They should have their way with a Raiders defense that is losing motivation by the week due to the shortcomings of their offense.  It's a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in scoring at 25.2 points per game, allowing at least 24 points in seven of their last nine games, and 30-plus points five times during this stretch.

Jim Harbaugh owns the Raiders.  He is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in his three meetings with the Raiders as the coach of the Chargers with the three wins all coming by 11 points or more.  Justin Herbert is 20-9-1 ATS in his career against AFC West opponents, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine division starts.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Jazz OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  

The Jazz are 8-2 OVER in their 10 home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 127.6 points per game, combining to average 256 points per game.  This total of 232 is very short for a Utah home game.

That's especially the case when you consider the Rockets will be getting back leading scorer Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG) from a 2-game absence due to a family matter today.  The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating scoring 122 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are without Finney-Smith, Eason and could be without Adams who is questionable, and those are three of their best defenders.  It means more playing time for scorers in Sheppard and Holiday.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rockets and Jazz finishing with 231 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings, including 239 or more in six of them.  This is also a very low total for this matchup.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +4.5

The Houston Texans have fought their way back from a 0-3 start to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff race.  But they still trail the Colts by two games in the AFC South, and their best chance of making the playoffs is to win the AFC South.  That makes this a 'must win' game for them to pull within one game of the Colts for first place with the tiebreaker.  A loss and they are pretty much done.

The Texans have won their last three games even without CJ Stroud as Davis Mills has held down the fort nicely in his absence.  But Stroud returns this week at the perfect time with the Texans coming off a mini-bye week after beating the Bills at home last Thursday.  He gets extra time to get re-acclimated into the offense.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and they've even been playing without do-it-all CB Jalen Pitre for the last few games due to a concussion.  Like Stroud, Pitre returns to the lineup this week, and now the Texans are one of the most healthy teams in the league on both sides of the football.  They are remarkably healthy with all 22 starters they had on their depth chart at the start of the season now starting this week.

The Colts benefited from an easy schedule to get off to an 8-2 start this season.  They took a step up in class last week and lost to the Chiefs.  It was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Chiefs outgained the Colts 494 to 255, or by 239 total yards.

Daniel Jones popped up on the injury report with a fibula injury last week, and it turns out it's partially fractured and he will be playing through it.  He won't have the same mobility that he had when everyone was calling for him to win MVP early in the season.  Jones is now back to his former self, the one that was terrible with the Giants.  The Colts are reliant too much on RB Jonathan Taylor to move the football.  Star TE Tyler Warren popped up on the injury report as questionable Saturday with an illness, too, and things are just starting to fall apart a little for the Colts right now.

Jones and Taylor have no chance against this Houston defense, which ranks 2nd in scoring at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 264.3 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  The Colts rank 23rd in total defense at 342.7 yards per game and will be without DT DeForest Buckner again this week.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Houston has just one loss in its last six meetings with Indianapolis.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Panthers OVER 45

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They have a respectable offense with a lot of playmakers, but their defense is terrible and decimated by injuries right now.  They have no chance of slowing down this high-powered Rams offense, who will lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a big number on Carolina.

This total is lower than it should be due to both teams coming off low-scoring games.  The Rams benefited from Baker Mayfield getting injured last week.  It was a brutal beat for over backs as the Rams and Bucs combined for 38 points at halftime, but only combined to score 3 points after intermission.  The Rams sat on the ball knowing backup QB Teddy Bridgewater could do nothing to move the football.  The Rams won't have that luxury this week and will have to keep scoring as Bryce Young and the Panthers have shown time and time again they will keep coming.

The Panthers are coming off a 20-9 loss to the 49ers.  That game was also fluky.  Brock Purdy threw 3 INT and almost all of them were deep in Panthers territory to take away points.  Bryce Young threw a INT at the 1-yard line on 1st down to take a TD off the board.  It was a fluky result and should have seen more combined points than it did.  But we'll take advantage here and bet the OVER in a 'buy low' spot off two teams coming off unders last week.

The Rams rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 9th in total offense at 358.4 yards per game and 7th at 5.9 yards per play.  Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, and he has his full compliment of weapons for this one with Adams, Nacua and Williams plus Tutu Atwell returns from injury this week.

The Panthers will be without three starters on defense this week.  They were already without leading tackler Chrstian Rozeboom (91 tackles), but now they will be without their best CB Jaycee Horn and starting SS Tre'Von Moehrig.  Horn suffered a concussion against the 49ers last week, and Moehrig is suspended for punching Jauan Jennings in the balls.  They can't afford to be without these guys if they want any chance of slowing down this Rams offense.

Carolina and its opponents have combined for at least 49 points in five of its last nine games.  The Rams will be without starting CB Quintin Lake, plus FS Kamren Kitchens and NT Poona Ford are questionable.  Young will find some success against this Los Angeles secondary and I look for the Panthers to keep coming to get us this OVER.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind, so scoring conditions are good.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +3

Just looking at this from a line value perspective, it's clear there's value on the Jets +3.  The Falcons were 2-point road underdogs last week to the New Orleans Saints.  Now they are 3-point road favorites over the Jets.  I have the Jets and Saints power rated about the same, so this 5-point adjustment in favor of the Falcons has gone too far.

That was a fluky 24-10 win at New Orleans.  The Saints missed 2 FG's and scored 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They simply got nothing out of their scoring opportunities, while the Falcons got one big play to blow it open.  That misleading final has the Falcons overvalued this week.

Remember, the Falcons are still without two of their best players in QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London this week.  It's. Falcone team that had lost five straight prior to that win over the Saints, including two OT losses.  It's a tired Atlanta team playing for an 8th consecutive week now with a couple OT losses sprinkled in.  Injuries remain a problem down two O-Line starters and possibly a 3rd, plus 9 defenders on IR or ruled out.

Kirk Cousins played fine indoors in perfect elements in New Orleans.  It will be a different story here outdoors in the elements in New York.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation and double-digit winds forecast with gusts up to 30 MPH.  His lack of arm strength will be much more noticeable here.

What makes the Jets grossly overvalued is the wild stat where they don't have a INT all season, and they have forced just one turnover.  That is unheard of and just shows how unlucky they have been.  The Jets rank great from a success rate perspective defensively.  They are 14th in total defense at 321.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  They held the Ravens to just 241 total yards last week.

Look for Breece Hall and this Jets rushing attack to have a lot of success against the Falcons this week.  The Falcons rank 26th against the run at 133.1 yards per game and 23rd at 4.6 yards per carry.  This is simply a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.  I have the Jets favored at home here.

The Falcons are 11-23-1 ATS following a win since 2020.  Teams coming off a win that ended a 5-plus game losing or more are just 6-15 SU & 8-11-2 ATS over the last five years.  Tyrod Taylor is 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his career when the team he is playing for is under .500.  The Falcons are 0-4 SU in outdoor games this season getting outscored by 11.8 points per game in those four losses.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The weather will be similar to the last time Brock Purdy traveled to Cleveland a few years ago.  It was a rainy, windy game where he finished just 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a INT and a fumble in a 19-17 road loss.  Purdy is coming off a 3 INT game against Carolina in his first game back from injury.  He is notoriously bad in poor weather games like this one.

Temps will be in the 30's with 25 MPH sustained winds and gusts of over 40 MPH at times.  The total for this game had cratered to 35.5 as of this writing, but the spread has not cratered with it.  The lower the total the more value there is on the underdog, and boy has there been value on the Browns as a home underdog all season.

Indeed, the Browns are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 1 to the Bengals as 4.5-point dogs with Joe Burrow.  They upset the packers as 7.5-point dogs.  They crushed the Dolphins 31-6 as 2.5-point favorites.  And they hung right with the Ravens in a 7-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Shadeur Sanders made his first start for the Browns last week and led them to a 24-10 win at Las Vegas.  He at least gives them the threat of the deep ball as Dillon Gabriel gave them nothing in that department.  It was a move the Browns should have made a long time ago to see what they had in Sanders, and he at least gives them a little more life.

But this comes down to this Cleveland defense, which has been dominant at home.  The Browns are allowing just 14.0 points per game, 235.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play at home this season despite facing some very good QB's in Lamar, Burrow, Love and Tua.  Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.  The Browns are actually 13-5 SU at home against teams that are above .500 on the season.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team that hasn't had their bye yet.  That makes this spot even worse for them on a short week after beating the Panthers at home on Monday Night Football.  They will be playing for a 13th consecutive week and their 4th road game in 6 weeks with a lot of travel involved in between, plus the distraction of Thanksgiving Week.

This is a bad, bad San Francisco defense.  The 49ers allowed 488 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 42 points to the Rams three weeks ago, 24 points to the Giants four weeks ago and 475 total yards to a bad Texans offense five weeks ago.  This defense has been much worse on the road, allowing 22.7 points per game, 372 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.

The injury situation isn't any better for the 49ers on defense this week, either.  They were already without DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson.  Now they will be without two more starters this week as DE Okuayinonu and LB Bethune have been ruled out.  The Browns have a dominant offensive line, and that offensive line should win the battle at the line of scrimmage against this decimated 49ers defense.  That will be the difference in the game.  The 49ers only rush for 99.2 yards per game (26th) and 3.6 per carry (31st) this season so they have struggled to move the ball on the ground.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* Wyoming/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Hawaii after a 38-10 loss at UNLV coming out of their bye last week.  The Rainbow Warriors will want to make amends for that performance in their final regular season game on Senior Night.  I look for them to make easy work of Wyoming tonight.

Hawaii is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes a 38-6 beat down of San Diego State in their last home game, and SDSU is one of the best teams in the conference.  I think the Rainbow Warriors were fat and happy going into their bye week off that win and didn't show up with the same level of focus at UNLV.  They will be refocused tonight.

Wyoming has one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing 24-7 to San Diego State, 24-3 to Fresno State and 13-7 to Nevada.  So they have been held to a total of 17 points in their last three games combined.

The Cowboys don't have the firepower to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors, especially since their two best playmakers suffered injuries in their last game and will now be out for this game.  They will be without leading receiver Chris Durr Jr. (46 receptions, 513 yards, 4 TD), and their next-best receiver only has 227 receiving yards so it's a huge loss.  They will also be without their top two RB's in Samuel Harris (552 yards) and Samuel Scott (400 yards).

I just don't know where the offense is going to come from for Wyoming in this game.  I also question their motivation after getting upset by Nevada last week to fall to 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I think they treat this trip to Hawaii more like a vacation than a business trip.  It's all business for the Rainbow Warriors tonight.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a terrible spot for the Detroit Pistons.  They had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 3-point loss at Boston.  Then last night they had their hopes of winning the NBA Cup come to a painful end with a 3-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  

I don't expect the Pistons to show up at all tonight, and there's a chance they rest some guys playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  Cade Cunningham played 40 minutes last night and is a real candidate to sit out.  Four of five starters played at least 30 minutes.

The Heat are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with Tyler Herro (26.5 PPG) returning for the last two games and forming chemistry with his new teammates in this new up-tempo scheme that fits him well.  The Heat are fully healthy now with Powell and Wiggins back and only Jacquez listed as questionable.  He has played in all 19 games this season despite popping up on the injury report multiple times so he is likely to go.

Miami playing at the fastest-pace in the entire NBA will certainly test these tired Detroit legs.  This is one of my favorite spots of the entire season so far, and I fully expect the Heat to win in a blowout.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* UCLA/USC NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Trojans rank 11th in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, 5th in total offense at 479.2 yards per game and 6th at 7.2 yards per play.  This despite playing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in Big Ten play.

The Trojans will come close to covering this total on their own against a UCLA defense that has allowed 48 or more points in three of their last four games to really let go of the rope.  The OVER is 4-0 in UCLA's last four games as a result where they are allowing 45.0 points per game in those four.

It looks like Nico Iamaleava is back at QB this week and he at least gives this UCLA offense a chance.  This is also a big step down in class against this USC defense after having to face Washington, Ohio State and Indiana defenses in three of their last four.  USC is decimated with injuries on defense and just allowed 42 points to Oregon last week.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings and 61 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Look for both offenses to let it all hang out in their final game of the regular season with really nothing at stake for either team.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Northwestern and Illinois.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

These are two very good defenses with Northwestern allowing just 21.0 points per game and Illinois allowing just 24.2 points per game.  The Wildcats rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.3 seconds.  The Fighting Illini are in no hurry either ranking 89th in tempo.  This will be a classic defensive battle in the Big Ten in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this Northwestern +7.5 ticket.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

Illinois needs to be able to throw the ball to be effective on offense, and it won't be able to throw the ball today in these conditions.  The Fighting Illini have struggled running the football all year.  They rank 108th in rushing at 132.2 yards per game and 102nd at 3.8 yards per carry.  Northwestern has been solid against the run allowing 141.8 yards per game.

With this game being played mostly on the ground, it really favors the Wildcats.  They are the better running team ranking 44th at 174 rushing yards per game and 35th at 4.8 yards per carry.  The Fighting Illini allow 127 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

These are two very evenly-matched teams overall so this 7.5-point spread is rich.  Northwestern outgains opponents by 17.3 yards per game while Illinois outgains foes by 17.7 yards per game.  Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/South Florida OVER 57.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  They never take their foot off the gas and that has been evident all season with their games flying over the totals because they keep scoring late into games.

The OVER is 7-2 in USF's last nine games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all nine games, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game and 1st in total offense at 497 yards per game.

Rice sits at 5-6 on the season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  That means the Owls are going to keep coming late into this game even if they are down big.  They will keep trying to score and will likely have to increase their tempo in the 2H.  Rice is quietly 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 71 or more combined points three times against similar teams to USF in North Texas (80), UConn (71) and UTSA (74).  

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Tampa with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Maryland/Michigan State OVER 48.5

There is a ton of bad weather across the country with snow and windy conditions especially in the Midwest.  Books have listed this total like it will be played outdoors in those elements.  But that's not the case today as this game will actually be played in the dome at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan on a fast track.  This total of 48.5 is too short tonight as a result.

I love the fact that it will be played indoors, but I also love the fact that both Michigan State and Maryland have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  There will be no defensive intensity from either team as a result, and I think a shootout will ensue as both teams unload the entire playbook in this 'meaningless' game.

Maryland just allowed 45 points to a poor Michigan offense at home last week.  The Terrapins have now allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall and it's not like they've played many good offenses during this stretch.  This is a very bad Michigan State defense as well ranking 113th in scoring allowing 30.1 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee/Akron OVER 168

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 54th in the country in adjusted tempo and 25th in average length of offensive possession at 14.9 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 26th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 137th.

Milwaukee also likes to play fast ranking 103rd in adjusted tempo and 74th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  The Panthers are also much better offensively (165th) than they are defensively (279th).  This game has shootout written all over it tonight.

Akron is 4-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 94.9 points per game.  The Zips are coming off a 97-94 loss to Yale in regulation and 191 combined points.  They have topped this total of 168 with their opponents in four of six games against D-1 competition.

Milwaukee is 4-2 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 171 combined points with Indiana, 176 with Hampton, 164 with Little Rock and 195 with Dominican.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington CBS No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Washington Huskies are playing their best football of the season here down the stretch with consecutive blowout wins over Purdue 49-13 and UCLA 48-14.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and ready to pull off the upset against Oregon today.

Oregon is really banged up right now at WR and offensive line.  We've seen the Ducks struggle against some mediocre Big Ten teams on the road this season.  They needed a last-second FG to beat Iowa 18-16 and needed OT to beat Penn State.  I think this will easily be their toughest road test of the season today.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He is completing 72% of his passes for 2,721 yards while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 569 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the nation.  I think he's ready for his flowers on the National TV stage today giving the Ducks all they can handle.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Kennesaw State ML -115

Kennesaw State gets into the C-USA Championship Game with a win today.  While the Owls will be max motivated to capture their 9th win of the season and make that title game, the Liberty Flames are just ready for their season to be overall.

The Flames have lost three consecutive games to Missouri State, FIU and Louisiana Tech to fall to 4-7 on the season and out of bowl contention.  What a major disappointment for a team that everyone pick to win Conference USA this season.

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games, and I don't think this Flames offense can keep up.  Bet Kennesaw State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* C-USA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kennesaw State/Liberty OVER 55

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

Liberty's offense has come to life here down the stretch averaging 32.2 points per game in its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Flames' last five games with 57 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total of 55 is too low, especially since Kennesaw State is the best offense they will have faced during this closing stretch.

Kennesaw State is averaging 34.0 points per game in its last six games.  I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB.  He is completing 65.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and averaging 9.4 per attempt, while also rushing for 307 yards and 6 scores.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with no wind and no rain today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 56

Both Penn State and Rutgers sit at 5-6 this season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  Only one team can make it, and I think this game will be played very close to the vest as a result.  Neither team will want to make the big mistake with what's at stake.  This total of 56 is too high.

That's especially the case with Penn State involved.  The Nittany Lions have a suspect offense and an elite defense.  Penn State and its opponents have combined for 52 or fewer points in six consecutive games to close out the season.  This total of 56 is too high for a game involving the Nittany Lions.

This Rutgers offense has been terrible when playing some of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall largely due to being held to 19 points or fewer in four of those six games, including 13 points or fewer in three of them.  They will get nothing against this Penn State defense, either.

Penn State ranks 111th in the country in tempo and will slow this game to a crawl while controlling it with its running game.  That will keep the clock moving and limit possessions for this Rutgers offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/West Virginia OVER 52.5

This is a very low total for two teams that play as fast as West Virginia and Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds under Rich Rodriquez.  The Red Raiders rank 22nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  That's impressive considering they have been blowing almost everyone out, so they never take their foot off the gas.

West Virginia will not be going to a bowl game so this is their 'national championship'.  Rodriquez will pull out all the stops here with trick plays and everything he can throw at Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers will keep coming late in this game since it's their last game, so getting the necessary points we need in the 4th quarter will be on the table if we need them.

Texas Tech will come close to covering this total on its own with an offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 42.6 points per game and 18th in total offense at 481.6 yards per game.  The Red Raiders should have their way with a WVU defense that ranks 86th in scoring at 29.2 points per game and 68th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game.

Freshman QB Scottie Fox Jr. has really played well here down the stretch for the Mountaineers since taking over four games ago.  They nearly upset TCU, he led them 45 points against Houston, 29 points against Colorado and threw for 353 yards against Arizona State's vaunted defense last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Central Michigan UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Toledo and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 20's with double-digit wins and a 100% chance of snow during the game.

This game will also be played close to the vest as both Toledo and Central Michigan have a chance to make the MAC Championship Game.  I think both teams will be very conservative with what's at stake, and it will lead to more ball control offense and more punts to try and not make the big mistake.

Central Michigan ranks 135th out of 136th teams in tempo snapping the ball every 31.3 seconds.  Only Ohio State has been slower, and Ohio State plays with big leads every week so it makes sense.  CMU plays slow no matter what.  They also keep the ball on the ground with 43.2 rush attempts per game compared to just 18.1 pass attempts.  That keeps the clock moving and favors UNDERS.

Toledo is in no hurry, either, ranking 88th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  The Rockets boast one of the top defenses in the country.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 241.9 yards per game and 2nd at 3.8 yards per play.  They allow just 93.2 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Central Michigan ranks 38th in scoring defense at 22.8 points per game and 38th in total defense at 353.8 yards per game.  So these are two of the best defenses in the MAC with a lot at stake and two teams that like to play slow.  This sets up for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Kings also profile as an OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  This figures to be one of the biggest shootouts of the season tonight especially with both teams playing relaxed basketball after already being eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup.

The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 251 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The Jazz are 7-2 OVER in their nine home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 128.6 points per game, combining to average 257 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -3

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They finally had their 13-game winning streak come to an end with a 117-114 loss in Boston.  But it will take zero effort for them to refocus here considering this is a must-win for them if they want to advance in the NBA Cup.

It's not a must-win game for Orlando, although they'd rather win this game than rely on point differential to advance.  But the Magic are in great position from a point differential perspective at +61 during their 3-0 start.  So they can still lose this game and advance on point differential as as none of the contenders are within 28 points of them.  In the back of their minds they know they are advancing either way.

The Pistons are 7-1 at home this season while the Magic are just 4-5 on the road.  The Pistons beat the Magic 135-116 in their last home meeting on October 29th earlier this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -8.5

The New York Knicks (2-1) are max motivated tonight.  They need to win to capture Group C, otherwise they will be eliminated.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Heat (3-1).

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heat so their only chance of advancing is on point differential.  But they know they are essentially eliminated unless they win this game by 50, which isn't happening.  They are only +13 in point differential and trailing everyone above them by anywhere from 11 to 48 points.  They also need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight, and both are favored.

Knowing their fate is pretty much already sealed, I don't expect the Bucks to bring back Giannis tonight.  He was questionable in their last NBA Cup game and didn't play, losing at Miami to lose out on the tiebreaker with the Heat now.  That was basically their 'last stand' in this tournament, and they won't be all that motivated knowing they won it all last year.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  They weren't impressive the game prior either with a 3-point win over the Hornets as 8-point home favorites.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team looking for as big of a blowout as possible.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER 236.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  I question how much they'll be motivated to play defense tonight knowing they are already eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Cavs should be playing as fast as possible to win by as much as possible.  That will benefit the OVER tonight.  

The Hawks are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The Cavs rank 7th in pace while the Hawks rank 10th, so these are two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU/Mississippi State OVER 162.5

SMU Is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 41st in the country in adjusted tempo and 14th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They are loaded with offensive talent scoring at least 87 points in six of their seven games this season, and 100 or more three times already.

Mississippi State also likes to play fast ranking in the top 1/3 in the country at 118th in adjusted tempo and 78th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  In their two games against the two best teams they have played like SMU, they lost 96-80 to Iowa State for 176 combined points and lost 98-77 to Kansas State for 175 combined points.  

SMU profiles similarly to K-State with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Miss State really has a suspect defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Texas A&M/FSU OVER 171.5

Texas A&M is a dead nuts OVER team playing 'Bucky Ball' under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan.  The Aggies rank 33rd in the country adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  The Aggies are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 167 points with Montana, 177 with Manhattan and 204 with Mississippi Valley State.

Florida State also profiles as an OVER team with how fast they play.  The Seminoles rank 7th in the country adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession at 13.8 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  This total of 171.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +3.5

Utah State has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 22.8 points per game in those five wins.  They will relish this opportunity to knock off Boise State and eliminate them from MWC title contention.

Boise State is without star QB Maddux Madsen and should not be favored by 3.5 points on the road at Utah State without him.  In their first road game without him, they lost 17-7 at San Diego State with 268 total yards.  In the game they lost him, they lost 30-7 at home to Fresno State and finished with 193 total yards.  Their only win since losing Madsen came against Colorado State, which has quit on the season at 2-9 with a fired head coach and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak with four of those losses coming by double-digits.

It's Senior Day for senior QB Bryson Barnes, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Barnes is completing 62.2% of his passes for 2,502 yards with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 644 yards and 8 TD.  He leads a potent Utah State offense that is putting up 41.2 points per game, 490 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play at home this season.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/New Mexico UNDER 42

This game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake.  A trip to the Mountain West title game is on the line for both San Diego State and New Mexico.  I think both teams will be playing tight offensively, and this will turn into a defensive battle between two of the best defenses in the MWC.  

SDSU ranks 4th in scoring defense at 12.5 points per game, 8th in total defense at 262.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.1 yards per play.  The Aztecs are led by a defense that is legitimately one of the best in the country.  New Mexico is 54th at 25.0 points per game, 51st at 367.6 yards per game and 55th at 5.6 yards per play with a stop unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  They have allowed 22 points or fewer in four of their five games during their current 5-game winning streak.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.

This New Mexico offense is not lighting up the scoreboard.  They were held to 20 points by Colorado State and 20 by Air Force in their last two games, which are two of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  The Lobos also aren't in a hurry ranking 103rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 8-3 UNDER in its 11 games this season.  The Aztecs and their opponents have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of their 11 games this season, including 31 or fewer in four of their last five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +1.5

New Mexico is 8-3 this season including a perfect 5-0 at home.  The Lobos are 5-2 in conference play and fighting to make the MWC Championship Game.  A win over San Diego State here would go a long way in getting them to the title game as they trail the Aztecs by one game and are in a three-way tie for 2nd place.

New Mexico has come up clutch here down the stretch to put itself in this position.  The Lobos have won four consecutive games including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win against UNLV, a team they are tied with in 2nd place.  The Lobos will be fresh as they had a bye three weeks ago before beating both Colorado State and Air Force.

San Diego State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and is a tired, banged up team.  In their last road game, they lost 38-6 at Hawaii.  They also lost by 23 at Washington State and have been much worse on the road than they have been at home.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -19.5

North Texas (10-1, 6-1 AAC) is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AAC.  Only two teams will make it, so the Mean Green are max motivated heading into this game with Temple.  They are not only motivated to win, but to do so with style since the playoff committee is keeping Tulane ranked ahead of them.  And the fact that they are going for style points couldn't have been more obvious than seeing what they've done in recent weeks.

Indeed, North Texas is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 as 4-point home favorites, Charlotte 54-20 as 26-point road favorites, Navy 31-17 as 6.5-point home favorites, UAB 53-24 as 17.5-point road favorites and Rice 56-24 as 18-point road favorites.  They have scored 53 or more points in four of their last five games, which is a clear indication they have been trying to keep scoring late into games and have executed it to perfection.  They are taking no prisoners.

Temple has lost three straight to fall to 5-6 this season.  The five wins have not been impressive as they have come against the five worst teams they have faced in UMass (0-12), FCS Howard, UTSA (6-5), Charlotte (1-10) and Tulsa (4-7).  During their 3-game losing streak they were blown out by 31 at home by TCU and blown out at home by 24 by Tulane.  Now they hit the road here to face a max motivated North Texas team, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Temple just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with North Texas.  The Owls managed just 14 points and 233 total yards against ECU and 13 points and 204 total yards against Tulane.  North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 45.3 points per game and 1st in total offense at 488.6 yards per game in the entire country.  This is going to be another blowout in the Mean Green's favor.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Bears/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in 11 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 44 is very low for a game involving the Bears right now.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears rank 27th in scoring defense at 26.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 362.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  Chicago games are averaging 52.8 combined points per game this season.

A lot has been made of the struggles of this Philadelphia offense, but this is the perfect defense for them to get on track against and hang a big number today.  The injuries are ugly for this Chicago defense.  They will be without all three starting LB's in Hyppolie II, Edwards and Sewell.  They will be without two more starters in DE Robinson and CB Stevenson.  The Eagles should get whatever they want on the ground against Chicago.

I trust the Bears to do enough offensively in this one to get us this OVER.  They will likely be playing fast in the 2H in a trailing game state and it will lead to either quick scores or quick turnovers from Caleb Williams.  The Cowboys racked up 473 total yards on the Eagles last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State Egg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 63.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State play every year in the Egg Bowl, and every year it's more low-scoring than projected.  Both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had two full weeks to prepare for this game.  That favors defense over offense when both teams are as familiar with one another as they are coming into this Egg Bowl.

The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in the Egg Bowl finishing with 59 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings.  The last seven have all seen 55 or fewer combined points, and the last three in particular have been very low-scoring with 40 combined points in 2024, 24 in 2023 and 46 in 2022.  These are all with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and his high-octane offenses.

I also like the fact that this game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake for both teams.  Ole Miss is trying to qualify for the 12-team playoff, and a win will get them in.  Mississippi State is 5-6 this season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  I think both teams will be playing tight, which also favors the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bengals/Ravens NBC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7

Note: I like a 3-team 7-point teaser at +120 on Ravens PK, Cowboys +10.5 & Packers +10 on Thanksgiving Day.  6-Point teaser pairings with the Ravens -1 I like are Packers +8.5 or better, Jets +8.5 or better and Patriots -1.5 or better.

The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much respect due to the return of Joe Burrow this week.  Burrow is a notoriously slow starter every NFL season, and this will be just like his first start of the season.  He isn't anywhere near 100%, and there's talk of him only being able to play out of the shotgun because his toe is limiting him that much.  He won't be prime Joe Burrow in his first game back from injury.

The Ravens are on a mission to win the AFC North and have played up to their potential since getting healthy.  The Ravens are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS since their bye week with all five wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game.  They beat the Bears by 14 and the Jets by 13 in their two home games during this stretch.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL now that they are healthy.  They have allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games and and average of just 14.0 points per game in their last six games.  They are fully healthy on offense and defense with the exception of backups with WR Rashod Bateman back to give the offense an added weapon.

The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 32.7 points per game, dead last in total defense at 415.8 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  They are without three of their best defenders in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shamar Stewart and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  DE Cam Sample is questionable as well.  

The Ravens are going to get whatever they want against the Bengals.  What really excites me is the thought of the power zone concepts that the Ravens run against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last against that concept.  Derrick Henry is in line for a monster day against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st allowing 156 yards per game and 29th at 5.1 yards per carry.  

Lamar Jackson is 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS vs. Burrow in their careers.  Night game favorites on Thanksgiving are 14-4 ATS since 2006.  Lamar Jackson is 5-0 SU in his career in early week games (before Sunday) winning by an average of 14 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +6

Navy is in a three-way tie for 1st place in the AAC with Tulane and North Texas.  This is a must-win for the Midshipmen if they want to play for a AAC title with a chance to make the 12-team playoff if they come out of it victorious.

While I know Navy will be max-motivated Thursday night, I question the motivation of the Memphis Tigers, who already have three losses in AAC play and have been eliminated from title contention.  They were in the driver's seat after an upset home over South Florida, but have fallen flat on their faces losing their last two AAC games 38-32 at home to Tulane and 31-27 at East Carolina.

This Memphis defense in particular has been absolutely shredded in three of its last four games with the exception being Rice, one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Tigers allowed 564 total yards to South Florida, 457 total yards to Tulane and 454 total yards to East Carolina.

Navy is 8-2 this season with its only two losses coming at North Texas and at home against Notre Dame, two teams who could be participating in the 12-team playoff.  The Midshipmen came up big with a 41-38 home win as 10-point dogs to South Florida last time out, racking up 524 total yards in the win.

Navy QB Blake Horvath is back and healthy.  He had a monster game in a 56-44 win over Memphis last season.  Horvath threw for 192 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 211 yards and 4 scores, totaling 6 touchdowns himself in the win.  You can bet he'll have another monster game against a Memphis defense that has been shredded in recent weeks and one that may just not be all that motivated to handle the physicality that comes with trying to defend the triple-option.  Bet Navy Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Cowboys CBS No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys have a ton of momentum after coming back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles last week.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

The Chiefs are coming off a huge 23-20 (OT) win at home over the Colts.  That game went deep into OT before the Chiefs eventually kicked the game-winning FG with two minutes left.  That means their team was on the field for a lot of plays and nearly an extra full quarter.  Now this is a tough spot for them on a short week with travel involved.  Three key players suffered injuries in that game that they will be without this week in RG Trey Smith, TE Noah Gray and CB Chris Roland-Wallace.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 387.3 yards per game and 4th in scoring at 29.1 points per game.

The Chiefs are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all road games this season with their only win coming against Russell Wilson and the New York Giants.  They lost to the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos, and the Cowboys are good enough to beat them at home here.  At the very least this line should be PK, so getting Dallas +3.5 is a tremendous value.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot like the Chiefs are 9-28 SU & 11-25-1 ATS.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Chiefs are 0-5 SU in their last five road games against Dallas.  Dak Prescott is 5-0 SU in his last five home games in an early week spot winning by 11.2 points per game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Chiefs/Cowboys UNDER 52.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They go on long, methodical drives on offense and are one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL.  They also have one of the best defenses in the league.

The Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 49 or fewer combined points in all six games.  This total of 52.5 is very high for a game involving the Chiefs.  They even played some high-powered offenses in the Lions, Bills and Colts during this 6-0 UNDER run.

The Cowboys will have one of the best defenses in the NFL moving forward.  got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

In their first game with everyone back plus the addition of Williams, they held the Raiders to 236 total yards including just 27 rushing.  Last week, they held the Eagles to 21 points and 339 total yards, including just 63 rushing.  These Cowboys totals were justified being so high in the first half of the season when they had no defense, but this total of 52.5 is too high for a game involving these two elite defenses now.  

The Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game and 6th in total defense at 293 yards per game.  Kansas City will be without two key players on offense RG Trey Smith and TE Noah Gray.  The Cowboys will be without LT Tyler Guyton this week.  The Chiefs do get RB Isaiah Pacheco back, which will give them more confidence to try and run the ball more, which will also benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Packers/Lions FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +3

The Packers are the better, healthier team with the much better defense.  This line suggest the Lions are the better team, but that's just not the case right now.  I'll gladly take the value and the full 3 points with the road underdog Packers.  Matt LaFleur is 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more as the head coach of the Packers.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Lions are in this dreadful spot off a 34-27 (OT) home win over the New York Giants as 14-point favorites.  They needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT.

Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now and was on the field for 76 plays against the Giants.  FS Kerby Joseph, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  CB Terrion Arnold and DE Marcus Davenport are questionable.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright, WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Three other starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, RG Tate Ratledge and RT Penei Sewell.  What a mess.

The Packers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft, WR Jayden Reed and backup WR Savion Williams.  WR Matthew Golden is questionable after sitting out last week, so there's a good chance he returns this week.  RB Josh Jacobs returns to form a great 1-2 punch with Emanuel Wilson, who rushed for for 107 yards and 2 TD in Jacobs' absence in a 23-6 win over the Vikings last week.

The Packers may have the best defense in the NFL right now.  They were only on the field for 39 plays last week and held the Vikings to just 145 total yards.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 4th in total defense at 278.7 yards per game.  They are also 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.

The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 in the season opener while holding Detroit to 246 total yards.  That was before they traded for Micah Parsons, and their defense has been even better with him since.  Parsons and company will wreak havok in the opposing backfield up against this banged-up Detroit offensive line and make life tough on Jared Goff once again.  The Packers have held eight of 11 opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and only one team has scored more than 25 against them all season.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* Gonzaga/Michigan TNT ANNIHILATOR on Gonzaga -2

Gonzaga looks like the most complete team in the country.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their seven games this season despite playing the 64th-ranked schedule.  They beat Oklahoma by 15, Creighton by 27, ASU by 12, Alabama by 10 and Maryland by 39 in their five toughest games.  Nobody has even pushed them.

Michigan will push them, but this will also be by far the toughest test of the season for the Wolverines.  Michigan needed OT to beat Wake Forest as 15-point favorites on a neutral and only beat a bad TCU team by 4 as 7.5-point road favorites.

Gonzaga ranks 4th in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense in the entire country.  The Bulldogs have a massive home-court advantage with this game being played in Las Vegas as their fans always travel well to Vegas every year for the WCC Tournament, and they've shown out in a big way for this Players Era Festival as well.  Bet Gonzaga Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans rank 25th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (22.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.4 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.

They are coming off a 143-130 win over the Bulls for 273 combined points.  They have been eliminated from NBA Cup contention after a 0-3 start where they have allowed an average of 121 points per game.  They won't be playing with much defensive intensity tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-1 in Group Play with an outside shot of advancing.  They have a +9 point differential, and if they win out they would have a chance of advancing on point differential, which is their only hope now that the Lakers clinched 1st place in Group B.  They have motivation to run the score up, so they will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters to improve their point differential.

The Grizzlies rank 11th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 125-115 loss to the Nuggets for 240 combined points.  This total of 234 is pretty short for a game involving the Grizzlies and Pelicans, especially when you look at their head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 250, 263 and 256 combined points in the three overs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They should only be an even more potent offensive team moving forward with Tyler Herro back healthy.  Norman Powell is also expected to play tonight, so they will be potent tonight in particular.

The Heat are also motivated to win by margin so they won't be taking their foot off the gas for four quarters.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup, so they want to win by as many points as possible as we've seen that play out with a +46 point differential in their 2-1 start this season.

The Bucks won't give up if they are down big because of that point differential tiebreak and a 2-0 start in the NBA Cup.  There's also a good chance they get a healthy Giannis for this one as he has been upgraded to questionable, and players that get upgraded to questionable usually play.  This total will skyrocket up if he's ruled in, and I like it even if he's not.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Raptors OVER 234.5

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (24.3 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points four times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points on this pathetic Indiana defense.

The Raptors also profile as an OVER team ranking 6th in offensive rating and 13th in pace.  What I really like about this OVER is the fact that the Pacers have already clinched 1st place in Group A in the NBA Cup and will be advancing no matter what.  I think they will relax their defensive intensity as a result, and this game will be played at max pace with little defense as a result.  

This will be the 2nd meeting of the season.  The Raptors won 129-111 for 240 combined points on November 15th.  Keep in mind the Pacers didn't have Mathurin for that game and were severely short-handed.  The Raptors only shot 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range and still scored 129 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Hornets OVER 238

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.2 PPG, 9.3 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  The Hornets are 7-3 OVER in games in which Ball has played finishing with 245 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

The Hornets play faster and much more efficiently with Ball in the lineup.  And now Brandon Miller (16.7 PPG) is back healthy, so this will be one of the few games they have both Miller and Ball healthy at the same time this season.  Add in rookie Knueppel (19.4 PPG) and F Bridges (22.0 PPG), and the Hornets have a potent offense.  They are poor defensively either way.

The Knicks sit at 1-1 in the NBA Cup with a -2 point differential.  They need to improve that point differential while winning this game, so they will be keeping the foot on the gas for four quarters.  They know this poor Charlotte defense is the perfect time for them to score as many points as possible, and they will be looking to take advantage.

The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season with an elite offense.  They are also without their best defender in OG Anunoby.  They profile as a dead nuts OVER team and have gone 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Virginia Tech -5

Virginia Tech is one of the most improved and thus most underrated teams in the country.  The Hokies are 5-0 this season led by four players who are all scoring at least 12.6 points per game in Hansberry (16.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG), Avdalas (15.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Lawal (14.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG) and Bedford (12.6 PPG).

The Hokies have impressive wins over Providence in OT on a neutral as 2-point dogs and Saint Joe's by 35 as 12.5-point home favorites.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat Colorado State in this Battle 4 Atlantis Opener.

Colorado State is a rebuilding team with four new starters under first-year head coach Ali Farokhmanesh.  The Rams have played one of the easiest schedules in the country at 343rd out of 366 teams.  To not be 5-0 is a bad sign for this team.

The two poor performances that really stand out are a 14-point win as 18.5-point home favorites against Cal Poly and a outright loss to Denver as 19-point home favorites.  That's a Denver team that lost by 30 to Arizona and is 2-4 on the season.  I don't think the Rams are ready to hang with a team the caliber of the Hokies here.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* Pistons/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -2.5

The Detroit Pistons are 13-0 in their last 13 games overall.  What has been impressive is that they have dealt with several injuries during this streak.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Tobias Harris all back in the lineup now.  They may legitimately be the best team in the East.

They are certainly better than the Boston Celtics, and they will be the more motivated team tonight.  They are not only motivated to extend this winning streak to 14 games, but more importantly to win Group B in the NBA Cup.  A win would put them at 3-0 alongside the Orlando Magic, who have a +61 point differential compared to their +27.  They also want to assure that their point differential is as good as possible because if they end up losing to the Magic in their next game, they would still advance based on point differential.

The Celtics have basically been eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup due to their 1-2 start.  They can get to 2-2, but that wouldn't be good enough to advance, especially since they have a -20 point differential right now.  They know it and will be lacking motivation as a result.  They will also be without their best defender in C Neemias Queta (9.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG), so the Pistons should get whatever they want at the rim.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Magic/76ers NBC No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Magic have turned into a dead nuts OVER team since losing Paulo Banchero to injury.  The ball no longer sticks in his hands in isolation, and the Magic play with a lot more movement and a lot more ball sharing which sets up better looks.  They are also playing a lot faster without him.

The Magic are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 230 or more combined points in all five games, so this total of 228 is pretty short for a game involving the Magic right now.  That includes 267 combined points with the Celtics and 254 with the Knicks in their last two games coming in.

The Philadelphia 76ers are led by Tyrese Maxey who is having a MVP-caliber season.  He had 54 points in a 123-114 win at Milwaukee, and came back with 27 points in a 127-117 loss to the Heat the next night.  They are going to have to go more small ball tonight without Joel Embiid and will have no problem running with the Magic.

This is a rematch from a 136-124 win by Philadelphia for 260 combined points on October 27th in their first meeting this season.  The Magic only shot 8-of-35 (32%) from 3-point range in that game while the 76ers had pretty much a normal night of shooting.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up enough for the change in style for the Magic without Banchero.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup so whoever is leading late won't take their foot off the gas.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* K-State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 163

Kansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats are 6-0 OVER in their six games this season finishing with 167 or more combined points in each of their last five games, and none of their six games have gone to OT.  This total of 163 is very low for a game involving Kansas State.

The Wildcats rank 26th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession, 40th in adjusted offense and 90th in adjusted defense.  They are loaded with scorers and rank 12th in effective FG percentage (61%) and 8th in 3-point percentage (43.3%).

Indiana is an elite offensive team ranking 31st in adjusted offense while scoring at least 98 points in three of its five games this season.  You can bet the Hoosiers will come close to hanging 100 on this piss-pour Kansas State defense.  The Hoosiers rank 23rd in effective FG percentage (58.7%) and 27th in 3-point percentage (39.4%).  These are two elite shooting teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on SEMO/Cal Poly OVER 167.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted tempo and 6th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 67th in 3-point percentage (37.2%) and chuck up a ton of them while trying to get their opponents to run with them.

Southeast Missouri State will happily oblige as the Redhawks rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 93rd in average length of offensive possession.  SEMO ranks 365th in effective FG percentage (64.1%) defense and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

SEMO went for 169 combined points in a 99-70 loss to Iowa, which plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They went for 173 combined points with Missouri as well.  The Redhawks are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.

Cal Poly is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Mustangs went for 172 combined points with Colorado State, 172 with Montana, 177 with Utah and 180 with Northern Arizona.  This total of 167.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Cal Poly.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Cup TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play fast and they don't stop anyone, which leads to a lot of high-scoring games.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 235 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 236 is pretty short for a game involving Washington.  Atlanta is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in five of those seven games, so it's also pretty short for a game involving the Hawks.

The Hawks have motivation to keep trying to run up the score late as point differential is a tiebreaker.  I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas, and the Wizards will gladly run with them.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings finishing with 236 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/UMass OVER 44.5

UMass is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Minutemen are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 48 or more combined points in all five, and 48 or more combined points in six straight coming into this one.  This total of 44.5 is very low for a game involving UMass.

The Minutemen rank 134th in scoring defense at 37.6 points per game and dead last (136th) in total defense at 440.9 yards per game.  Ohio took it easy on them last week only attempting 8 passes and running 57 times for 363 yards and still scored 42 points.  Northern Illinois and Akron both have terrible offenses, and they scored 45 and 44 points on them, respectively.  Kent State put up 42 points on them as well.

Bowling Green is known for having a bad offense this season, but even the Falcons will find plenty of success against this hapless UMass defense.  I also like the fact that this will be the final game for both teams and both won't be going to a bowl game.  That means the entire playbook is wide open and both offenses will have success.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +34

Arizona is in a massive letdown spot.  The Wildcats are coming off consecutive huge wins over UCLA by 4 and UConn by 4.  It's just human nature for them to not be nearly as motivated to face Denver when they return home from the East Coast tonight.

Denver has been undervalued this season going 4-1 ATS.  The performances on the road have been very impressive.  The Pioneers only lost by 11 at Seattle as 12.5-point dogs and by 14 at Washington as 27.5-point dogs.  

They also pulled off two outright upsets beating Montana State by 2 as 7.5-point dogs and Colorado State by 2 as 19-point dogs.  They are clearly much better than anyone realizes and should not be catching 34 points here in this Arizona letdown spot.  Bet Denver Monday.

20* Panthers/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are back to near full strength on offense and have one of the best offenses in the league when that's the case.  But their defense is as injured as any defense in the NFL right now and they just cannot stop anyone.  That forces them to try and win shootouts week after week.

The 49ers are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  That includes 63, 68 and 58 points in their last three games coming into this one.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 49ers right now.

Brock Purdy returned to lead the 49ers to a 41-22 win at Arizona last week.  Purdy went 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and 3 TD win the win.  He found George Kittle 6 times for 67 yards and 2 TD.  Kittle recently returned from injury, and now Rickey Pearsall is back after making his return last week.  He should get targeted much more this week.

It was a miracle the 49ers only gave up 22 points to the Cardinals when you consider they allowed 488 total yards.  Jacoby Brissett lit them up for 452 passing yards despite not having all of his top weapons at receiver, including Marvin Harrison Jr.  This came a week after allowing 42 points and 401 total yards to the Rams.

The 49ers have been lost without their two leaders on defense in DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner.  The injuries keep piling up as DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson are both on IR, DE Beal Jr. and LB Bethune are both out, and LB Gifford is questionable.  The Panthers should be able to get whatever they want both on the ground and through the air against this 49ers mash unit.

Bryce Young led the Panthers to a 30-27 (OT) comeback win in Atlanta from 14 points down last week.  It was the best game of his career as he went 31-of-45 passing for 448 yards and 3 TD in the win.  With WR's McMillian, Legette and Coker and RB's Dowdle and Hubbard, the Panthers have some of the most underrated playmakers in the league.  They are also fully healthy on offense with the exception of C Cade Mayes, but backup C Austin Corbett has plenty of experience starting in his place.

The Panthers have injury concerns of their own on defense with both starting LB's Rozeboom and Wallace out for this game.  Those are huge losses as Rozebook has 91 tackles while Wallace has 52 tackles and 2 sacks.  You know Kyle Shanahan will scheme it up to exploit those weaknesses in the middle of this Carolina defense.

The Panthers are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  So this total of 47.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both offenses will have their way with these two defenses Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 244

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season while ranking 2nd in pace.  They are going to play even faster now that Coby White is healthy and in the lineup.  He and Josh Giddey will keep these Bulls running as fast as possible as long as they are on the court.

The Pelicans rank 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (21.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.  They will get their points against the Bulls tonight and gladly run with them.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Bulls and Pelicans.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Akron -1.5

Akron is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Zips are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS with their only loss coming by 18 at Purdue as 18.5-point dogs.  Purdue is arguably the best team in the country.

The spot really favors the Zips.  They crushed Iona by 21 on Friday and Evansville by 38 on Sunday in the first two rounds of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Island.  They were able to rest their starters late and will still be very fresh for this game against Yale.

Yale struggled against two bad teams in its first two games.  The Bulldogs only beat Green Bay by 6 as 17-point favorites on Friday and Charleston by 11 on Sunday.  They had to play their starters the full minutes yesterday and won't be nearly as fresh as Akron will be for this one.  

They Bulldogs also lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Rhode Island in their game prior to this tournament and Stony Brook by 7 as 20-point favorites the game prior.  It's clear to me the Zips are the better team in the better spot today.  Bet Akron Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Pacers OVER 235.5

The Pistons are 5-1 OVER in their last six games while scoring at least 120 points in five of those six games.  They rank 8th in the NBA on offensive rating and get even more reinforcements now with PG Jaden Ivey and SG Caris LeVert returning to the lineup tonight.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (26.4 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points three times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points.

What really stood out as well was the Pistons shot 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range while the Pacers shot just 9-of-31 (29%) from 3-point range in that first meeting.  So they got to 239 combined points despite the injuries and poor shooting, so there's actually a ton of room for more points here in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 244

The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games combining for 266 points with the Thunder, 266 with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 6th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all eight games, and and 254 or more in seven of those eight games.

The Lakers are fully healthy now with LeBron and Vincent back to go along with Reaves and Doncic.  They beat the Jazz 140-126 at home in their last game.  What stood out is neither team shot well from 3-point range and they still combined for 266 points.  The Jazz shot 13-of-45 (29%) while the Lakers shot 11-of-32 (34%) from deep.

The Lakers are 10-5 OVER in their 15 games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 244 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and have gone 12-4 OVER in their 16 games.  They are coming off a 127-123 win over the Warriors in the NBA Cup despite not having Sharpe (22.6 PPG) or Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG) in the lineup.

The Thunder went for 256 combined points with the Jazz last time out and 235 with the Pelicans three games ago.  They won't mind running with the Blazers, and they want to make a statement here offensively after suffering their only loss of the season to the Blazers.

They lost 121-119 in Portland for 240 combined points on November 5th.  They shot just 42% from the field and still scored 119 points.  The Blazers only shot 41% from the field and still scored 121.  So there's even some room for improvement for both teams in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4.5

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off an upset loss to the Nets in a home-and-home situation after beating the Nets by 14 on the road in the game prior.  They will come back motivated here to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Celtics have a big rest advantage over the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after a huge 133-121 win over the Knicks last night.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 221

The Celtics are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Magic are in no hurry either ranking 20th in pace.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Magic and Celtics this season.  Nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.

So the Magic won't have two of their best scorers and their floor general in Suggs, so points will be very hard to come by.  The Celtics already struggle on the offensive end as well, relying more on defense this season than ever to be competitive.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints ML +115

Note: I released this play early in the week when the Saints were underdogs.  I would lay up to -150 with the Saints.

The spot really favors the Saints.  They are coming off their bye week and have a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore who will get the most out of this bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL with only two starters listed as questionable this week, so they come out of the bye week healthy, rested and ready to go.

Look for them to pick up where they left off after a 17-7 road win over the Carolina Panthers going into their bye.  That was a more dominant result than the final score showed.  The Saints outgained the Panthers 388 to 175, or by 213 total yards.  Tyler Shough went 19-of-27 passing for 282 yards and 2 TD in the win and looks to be an upgrade from Spencer Rattler.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Falcons.  They have lost five straight with the last three being gut-wrenching losses after getting blowing out by the 49ers and Dolphins.  Three weeks ago they lost by 1 at New England after a missed XP, two weeks ago they lost in OT by 6 to the Colts in London, and last week they lost by 3 in OT after blowing a 14-point lead to the Panthers.  

The Falcons now sit at 3-7 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention and they know it.  They especially know it now that QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season.  They completed folded after he left the game and was replaced by Kirk Cousins last week against the Panthers.  Making matters worse, they will also be without their best receiver in Drake London (60 receptions, 810 yards, 6 TD) this week.

The Falcons injuries don't stop there.  They are without two starting offensive linemen and another two starters are questionable.  They have nine defenders on IR or out and LB Leonard Floyd is questionable.  They have been pitiful on both sides of the ball, especially defensively during this stretch.  And their offense has been atrocious with Cousins at QB.

We saw what Cousins could do with a full week of prep already, losing 34-10 at home to the lowly Miami Dolphins.  He is absolutely washed.  He is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 52 attempts this season and has yet to throw a TD pass.  The defense is just as big of a concern, allowing 29.8 points per game in their last four games.  They just allowed 486 total yards to the Panthers last week after giving up 519 yards to the Colts in London.  All this travel and all these OT losses will take their toll this week.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

Dak Prescott is 21-2 SU at home in his career against NFC East opponents.  That includes 6-1 SU against the Philadelphia Eagles.  He does not lose at home, and he has this Cowboys offense rolling this season and ready to take down the Eagles this week.

But the difference for the Cowboys is their defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and I think the matchup is a great one for them because they should have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

If anyone can stop the tush push the Eagles love to run, it's the Cowboys.  This Philadelphia team has been getting away with murder this season winning almost every close game.  The Eagles are overrated due to their 8-2 record, and they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Cowboys.  While the Eagles have a great defense, their offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and will get shut down here.

The Cowboys rank 2nd in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game, 6th at 6.0 yards per play and 9th at 4.7 yards per carry.  The Eagles rank 16th scoring 23.4 points per game, 25th in total offense at 300.1 yards per game, 24th at 5.3 yards per play and 25th at 3.9 yards per carry.  

Their offense is broken, and now they will be without their most important offensive lineman in LT Lane Johnson for this game.  Their numbers with him in and out of the lineup are staggering.  The Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts and 12-23 SU when he doesn't over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* Colts/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

There have been 14 teams since 1990 to be 5-5 or worse and favored over a team that has won 80% or more of their games in the 11th game of the season or later.  Those 14 teams went 14-0 SU & 12-0-2 ATS.  The Chiefs are the 15th team in this situation, and they are favored here at home for good reason.

The Chiefs have their bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.  They came up short on a last-second FG in Denver, but they will bounce back at home here against the Colts.  They go from being 4.5-point road favorites in Denver to only 3-point home favorites over the Colts.  This line makes no sense as the Colts and Broncos are power rated as near equals and even played a coin flip in Indianapolis earlier this season in which Denver was favored.

The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Colts are 2-2 on the road losing to the Rams by 7 and the Steelers by 7.  They are much more vulnerable on the highway, and this will easily be their stiffest road test of the season.

The Colts have a commanding lead in the AFC South and can afford a loss.  I also think the bye week came at a bad time considering they were rolling.  The bye week could have only halted their momentum as they went into it fat and happy.  Teams winning 80% or more of their games and coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS since 2005.

Sitting at 5-5 on the season, the Chiefs need this game like blood and cannot afford a loss if they want to make the playoffs.  I think they put their best foot forward as a result.  The Chiefs went 9-1 to open last season but actually had worse numbers than they do at 5-5 this season. The difference is they won all their one-score games last year, and they are 0-5 in one-score games this season.  They are averaging 364.2 yards per game and 5.9 per paly on offense and allowing just 396.8 yards per game and 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 68 yards per game.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Lions OVER 49.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-1 OVER in their last six games.  Jameis Winson is an OVER QB who will stretch the field but also make costly mistakes to set up opponents for easy scores.  And the Giants currently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL due to all their injuries.

The Lions are pretty healthy and explosive on offense when in a dome, which they will be this week when they return home.  But the Lions are decimated with injuries on defense, and I think Winston and company will have success against them through the air against their banged up secondary.

The Lions are scoring 33.5 points per game at home this season.  They'll be facing a New York defense that is allowing an average of 31.2 points per game in their last five games.  The Giants will be without LB Thibodeaux and CB Adebo again this week, and SS Nubin and CB Banks are both questionable.  The Lions will top their season average in this one, especially against a Giants D that has allowed an average of 175.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  The Lions will score every time they get to the red zone.

Winston had the ball deep in Green Bay territory before throwing a INT in the end zone in a 27-20 loss last week.  That was nearly a 27-27 tie and 54 combined points.  That's a Green Bay team with an elite defense too, and he held up well against it.  His job will be much easier this week indoors against this hobbled Detroit defense.  It will also be easiest since he gets his best receiver in Darius Slayton back from a hamstring injury.

The Lions will be without both CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph this week.  DE Josh Paschal and DE Marcus Davenport remain out.  After facing two poor offenses in the Commanders with Mariota and the hapless Eagles offense, the Lions will meet their match this week.  Keep in mind they gave up 27 points to the Vikings and JJ McCarthy in their last home game, and McCarthy couldn't have looked worse since.  The Giants will easily get into the 20's while the Lions get into the 30's and we easily cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -7

Note: I really like Patriots O 29.5 team total. I also like 6-point teasers with the Patriots -1. Good options to pair with them are the 49ers -1, Rams -0.5, Cowboys +9.5.

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 3-7 on the season with their 34-12 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  It was a pretty pathetic effort considering they were off their bye week and with a chance to sweep the Steelers in the season series, which would have kept their hopes alive to make the playoffs.  Now all hope is gone, and I question how much they want to show up this week.

WR Jamar Chase got suspended for this game after losing his temper and spitting on Jalen Ramsey.  The offense will be lost without Chase, who was forming a great chemistry with Flacco.  Now Flacco is clearly nursing a shoulder injury that he is playing through and just hasn't been the same since suffering it.  The Bengals managed just 297 yards against a poor Pittsburgh defense last week and got a lot of those yards in garbage time with the game decided.

But the biggest problem for the Bengals is having the worst defense in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.4 points per game, 32nd at 418.2 yards per game and 31st at 6.5 yards per play.  The kicker was giving up 39 points and 502 yards to Justin Fields and the Jets and 47 points and 576 total yards to Caleb Williams and the Bears going into the bye.

If things couldn't get any worse for this Bengals defense, they are now without four of their best players on defense in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shemar Stewart, DE Cam Sample and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  You can just imagine what this Patriots offense is going to do to them.

Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites while leading the Patriots to eight consecutive victories coming into this one.  Maye is completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,836 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 285 yards and two scores.  Now he gets both WR Boutte (341 yards, 5 TD) and RB Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) back from injury this week.  And rookie RB Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games without Stevenson and is coming into his own.

What's most amazing about the Patriots is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now despite not having their bye week yet.  They are refreshed with a mini-bye week after beating the Jets 27-14 last Thursday.  You can't run on their defense, which ranks 1st against the run at 84.7 yards per game and 8th at 3.9 yards per carry.  So the Bengals are going to have to be one-dimensional, which isn't a recipe for success in the NFL.  This will get ugly quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some quit in the Bengals in the 2H.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State -3

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  Then they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.

The Wildcats were happy to be back home for a 91-85 win over Campbell as 1-point favorites in which they led by 22 with 10 minutes to go.  Now they have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to get another home win over UT-Arlington.

This is a bad UT-Arlington team picked to finish near the bottom of the WAC.  The Mavericks went 13-18 last season and returned just one starter from that team in Raysean Seamster, the only current player averaging in double figures scoring for them.

UT-Arlington is coming off a 71-67 loss to Campbell yesterday to give them a common opponent with Weber State.  The Mavericks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 5 days, while the Wildcats have had the last two days off.  This rest advantage is just an added bonus as the Wildcats are the much superior team anyway.  Bet Weber State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on WKU/LSU OVER 48.5

LSU's offense has been held down this season largely due to playing a rugged SEC schedule that has been the 6th-toughest in the entire country.  Garrett Nussmeier got banged up and wasn't the same but played through injury.  I like the fact that they have now shut him down for the season and turned over the keys to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren.

Van Buren played very well at Mississippi State last season taking over for an injured Blake Shapen, so he has big-time SEC experience.  He played half of the Alabama game and was the much more effective QB.  And he started and finished last week's win over Arkansas.  Van Buren gives them more mobility to make up for a shaky offensive line, too.

He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 60 yards and a score thus far.  Now he gets a chance to let his hair down and step out of SEC play and face one of the worst defenses in the country in Western Kentucky this week.  I have no doubt LSU is going to hang one of its biggest offense outputs of the season against WKU this week in the final home game at night in Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky has played the 154th-ranked schedule in the country this season out of terrible C-USA.  Despite the easy schedule, they still rank 91st in total defense at 398.8 yards per game and 87th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  Against the best offense they have faced, they allowed 45 points and 508 total yards to Toledo.  It will be a similar result for their D against this LSU offense.

Western Kentucky profiles as an OVER team ranking 37th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds with a pass-happy offense.  The Hilltoppers rank 12th in the country at 296.1 passing yards per game.  They will relish this opportunity to test their offense up against a banged up, overrated LSU defense.  I think they can get at least a couple scores here to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 48.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -3

New Mexico is quietly 7-3 this season and in a five-way tie for 2nd place in the Mountain West with a real shot to make the conference championship game in head coach Jason Eck's first season on the job.  They are highly motivated to win these last two games and hopefully win out on some tiebreakers to get into the title game.

New Mexico has won four straight including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win at UNLV as 4.5-point dogs.  They had a bye week after that UNLV game and returned from it last week a little rusty.  That helps explain how they struggled to put away Colorado State 20-17.  But they lost fumbled four times and lost all four fumbles, which most teams wouldn't be able to overcome.  They were able to, and that's a good sign of the character of this team.

While New Mexico has everything to play for right now, Air Force just suffered its 7th loss of the season and will not be going to a bowl game because of it.  The Falcons will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after four wars against Army, San Jose State and UConn.  And the biggest reason I'm fading the Falcons this week is because they just lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn.

Now the Falcons have to fly clear back across the country and play without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

The matchup really favors the Lobos, too.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

New Mexico has a solid, balanced offense that averages 234 passing yards per game, 151 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  The Lobos will feast on one of the worst defenses in the country in the Falcons, who rank 122nd in scoring at 32.3 points per game allowed, 129th at 446.6 yards per game and 135th at 7.4 yards per play.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico/Air Force UNDER 55.5

Air Force lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn last week.  Their offense will be lost without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

This is a great matchup for New Mexico's defense.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

After being dreadful to start the season, Air Force's defense has had a huge turn here down the stretch and has allowed just 21 points per game in its last four games.  I think they can hold New Mexico in check enough to keep this game UNDER the total.

There will be very few possessions in this game as both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Air Force ranks 119th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.7 seconds.  They will probably go even slower now without Szarka and with a backup QB to try and shorten this game as much as possible.  New Mexico ranks 96th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds and will be in no hurry, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech -2.5

Georgia Tech will host one of the most important games in program history Saturday night at 7:00 EST.  With a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, you can bet this will be one of the most raucous home crowds the Yellow Jackets have ever had.  I don't think it is being factored into this line enough.

It's also Senior Night for one of the best players in program history in senior QB Haynes King.  He is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He has completed 72.7% of his passes for 2,259 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 807 yards and 14 scores.  I trust in King to lead this team to victory. Saturday night.

What I don't trust is Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel to be ready for this moment.  He was exposed against Notre Dame throwing several balls into coverage that should have been picked off.  This Pitt offense was held to 15 points and 219 total yards by the Fighting Irish.  That was even after a TD on the final play of the game in garbage time.  Heintschel finished 16-of-33 passing for 126 yards with a INT in the loss.

Making matters worse is that Pitt star RB Desmond Reid was injured in the 4th quarter of that blowout loss when he shouldn't have even been in the game.  That leaves his status for this game very much in question.  Pitt only rushes for 119.3 yards per game and 3.6 per carry as an offense on the season so they won't even be able to take advantage of Georgia Tech's biggest weakness on D, which is against the run.

I think this line is lower than it should be because Georgia Tech struggled with Boston College last week on the road, needing a last-second FG to win 36-34.  The Yellow Jackets were coming off their bye week and they were clearly flat, at least defensively.  But in the back of their minds they knew they could lose that game and it wouldn't matter because they would need to win this game against Pitt to make the ACC Championship Game either way.  

Yet they still racked up 628 total yards and put together a game-winning drive to show their championship mettle.  They will show it off again Saturday night if the game is on the line late.  I trust senior King to make the plays necessary and freshman Heintschel to fold under the pressure of the moment.  

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 11-0 SU at home over the last two seasons with one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a raucous atmosphere for this one and likely the best home atmosphere over the last two seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Texas State -17.5

Texas State is 4 plays away from being 8-2.  If they were 8-2, they would be much bigger favorites here against lifeless Louisiana-Monroe.  Instead they are 4-6 and scratching, clawing and fighting to make a bowl game.

Texas State has two OT losses and three losses by 3 points or fewer.  When you look at their numbers, they are much closer to a 8-2 team than one that is 4-6.  And that played out last week when they handed Southern Miss their first conference loss of the season in a dominant 41-14 victory.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the worst team in the Sun Belt in ULM and it should result in another blowout victory.

Injuries have decimated the Warhawks as they sit at 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  The Warnhawks are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits, and four of the six losses coming by 23 points or more.

Injuries at QB have been the biggest issue as the Warhawks are scoring just 11.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak.  They have no chance of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the country here.  Texas State ranks 24th in scoring offense at 35.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 474.4 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  Don't expect them to let up one ounce with their bowl lives at stake.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee-Martin -8

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  They gave Florida State all they wanted in a 87-73 road loss as 20-point dogs last time out.

Now the Skyhawks take a big step down in class here against a Prairie View A&M team they should blow out.  They are picked to finish near the bottom of the SWAC alongside two of the worst teams in the country in Arkansas Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State.

It's easy to see why as the Panthers lost all five starters from last season after Braelon Bush (13.4 PPG) decided to transfer to Chicago State late in the process.  This is a team that went 5-27 last year and is well on its way to another disastrous season.

Prairie View A&M lost 105-62 as 20-point dogs at Wichita State, by 27 at Oklahoma State and by 18 at Missouri.  It won't get much easier against this underrated Tennessee-Martin squad today, and another double-digit loss is in store for the Panthers.  Bet UT-Martin Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston PK

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It's just another example of head coach Willie Fritz proving he can turn around a program after doing the same thing at Georgia Southern and Tulane before arriving in Houston.  The Cougars are now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and very much alive to play for a Big 12 title.

The spot favors Houston as well as the Cougars are off their bye week following a 30-27 road win at UCF.  That was a very misleading final as the Cougars outgained the Knights 433 to 282, or by 151 total yards.  They were able to overcome 4 turnovers, the 2nd consecutive game they have turned it over 4 times.  You can bet they have been working on ball security over the bye week and will be buttoned up for this huge game against TCU.

"I think it was really good for us," Fritz said of the bye week. "We had a team meeting on Monday, and I told them our No. 1 goal was to get as healthy as we possibly can.  So we were very careful with probably five or six guys who were banged up.  We've been getting them through the last two to three games. Now it looks like all of those guys are really healthy."

While the Cougars have everything to play for, the TCU Horned Frogs are dead after consecutive losses to Iowa State at home and BYU on the road.  They were blasted 44-13 at BYU to fall to 6-4 straight up and 3-4 in conference play this season.  I just don't think they'll show up this week with all of their dreams of winning a Big 12 title gone now.

Houston QB Conner Weignman has revived his career completing 64.9% of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 18-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 8.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 412 yards and 9 TD.  This is one of the most improved offenses in the country.

No question Houston has the better defense in this matchup.  The Cougars are allowing 22.1 points per game, 333.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  TCU allows 26.5 points per game, 374.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  We are getting the better, more motivated, more rested team at home at a PK here which is a tremendous value.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

Tulane appeared as the Group of 5 team in the 12-team playoff rankings Tuesday night.  It just means the committee believes they are the most likely team to get in.  It also puts a target squarely on their back, and puts the level of expectations for them higher than they should be.

Head coach Jon Sumrall was right when he said his team didn't look anything like a playoff team.  Sumrall's name is also popping up for several head coaching vacancies, which is a major distraction.  The Green Wave have all the pressure on them this week, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.

I love this spot for Temple.  They lost by 1 to Army going into their bye last week, and now they sit at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach KC Keeler's first season on the job.  They have North Texas on the road on deck next week, so they know this is their prime opportunity to pull off the upset and get that all-important 6th win as they will be bigger underdogs at North Texas next week.

Tulane is a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  The 11-point win over FAU at home as 17-point favorites was far from impressive last week.  They actually gave up 472 total yards to FAU and were outgained by 69 yards and fortunate to even win the game as they were +3 in turnovers.  And this has been a terrible, leaky Tulane defense that can't be trusted to get margin.

Tulane allowed 48 points and 523 total yards in a 48-26 road loss at UTSA three games ago.  They allowed 32 points and 435 total yards to Memphis, and then those 472 yards to FAU in their last three games.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to FAU.

Now they must face one of the most underrated QB's in the country in Temple QB Evan Simon, who has an eye-popping 22-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He also has some mobility with 198 rushing yards and 2 TD.  Simon has a trio of reliable receivers in Hollawayne (34 receptions, 6 TD), Bermudez (32, 4 TD) and Chase (32, 3 TD) and a reliable TE in Clarke (26, 4 TD).  Ducker (729 rushing yards, 6 TD) provides the balance.

Tulane has been far from impressive on the road this season.  The Green Wave beat Memphis by 6 which is their best road win.  They also needed OT to beat South Alabama 33-31, which is a 3-7 South Alabama team currently.  They lost by 22 at UTSA and by 35 at Ole Miss.  Temple beat UTSA outright as 6.5-point dogs and should have beaten Navy in a 1-point loss as 10-point dogs but were done in by the refs in two games against AAC teams that are on Tulane's level.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* USC/Oregon CBS No-Brainer on OVER 59

Two of the best offenses in the country square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between former Pac-12 rivals USC and Oregon, who have been notorious for playing in shootouts when they get together.  It will be no different now that they are in the Big Ten.

USC ranks 11th in scoring offense at 38.2 points per game and 7th in total offense at 488.9 yards per game.  More impressive yet, the Trojans rank 2nd averaging 7.4 yards per play.  The problem is while the defense is improved, it is also very injured right now after losing three starters to injury in a physical game against Iowa last week.  S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) and DE Braylan Shelby (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) all left the game and did not return.

Oregon ranks 7th in scoring offense at 39.0 points per game, 12th in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and 3rd at 7.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the top three offenses in the country from a yards per play perspective.  Oregon's offensive numbers are also tamed a bit due to playing in some poor weather a few games, and the same can be said for USC's offense having to play in some poor weather this season against Iowa and Nebraska.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps around 50, no wind and no rain.  USC and Oregon have combined for at least 55 points in nine consecutive meetings, including 63 or more in eight of those nine.  They have averaged 75.2 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marshall/Appalachian State OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  The Thundering Herd are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That includes 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with ODU, 87 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina in five of them.  This total of 54.5 is way too short for a game involving Marshall right now.

The Thundering Herd rank 39th in scoring offense at 32.6 points per game.  But their defense is atrocious, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 31.3 points per game, 109th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.

This will be a big step down in class for this App State offense after having to face two of the top three defenses in the Sun Belt in Old Dominion and James Madison in recent weeks.  The Mountaineers really profile as an OVER team because they rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.7 seconds.

Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 68% of his passes for 1,761 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 588 yards and 4 scores.  He should light up this awful App State defense that ranks 89th in scoring at 30.4 points per game and 85th in total defense at 409.9 yards per game.  This is a tired App State defense that just allowed 58 points to James Madison last week.

The Mountaineers were a little stuck in the mud offensively not only because of the tough schedule of late, but also because they were stubborn and stuck with junior QB AJ Swann too long.  Well, Swann is out with an injury this week, which opens the door for their better QB in JJ Kohl to take the reigns the rest of the way.  Kohl has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 per attempt compared to Swann with a 10-to-8 TD/INT ratio and 6.7 per attempt.  Kohl is the better option and will torch this Marshall defense this week.  

Marshall beat App State 52-37 for 89 combined points last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, less than 10 MPH winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +107

Charlotte Hornets are a much better team with La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10.5 PPG).  They are also without Bradley Beal for the season now, and the Norman Powell trade couldn't look any worse than it does right now.

The Clippers are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS and there's no end in sight.  They are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games with their lone win coming in OT against the Mavericks.  They have no business being favored on the road here against a much healthier, better Hornets team in their current form.  

This is also a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Clippers starting at 1:00 EST, something they are not used to and I think it will take them some time to wake up.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Hornets OVER 226.5

Charlotte Hornets is a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr.  That means more minutes for guys like John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic who are all offense and no defense.

The Clippers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 230 combined points with the Magic, 239 with the Celtics, 228 at the end of regulation with the Mavericks and 246 with the Nuggets.

The OVER is 6-3 in the nine games in which Ball has played this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 226.5 is very short for a game involving the Hornets with Ball in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +31.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  And the spot is not a good one for the Buckeyes, who have their big rivalry game on deck against Michigan next week.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory here and aren't worried about running up the score knowing if they just win out they will make the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State needed a TD in the final minutes to cover the 33-point spread against UCLA at home last week in a 48-10 win.  That's a UCLA team that was playing without starting QB Nico.  In that game Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith suffered an injury and was forced from the game.

Ohio State was already without Carnell Tate (39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 TD) and now Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 TD) is banged up.  I would be surprised if either of these two star receivers played this week as the Buckeyes know they can win this game without them just by running the football and grinding out a win.  The Buckeyes have no problem grinding out games as they rank dead last (136th) in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds.  That limits possessions and makes it more difficult for them to get margin.

I like the spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Ohio State.  They sit at 5-5 and one win shy of bowl eligibility and are max motivated.  They will have a chance to gain that eligibility next week too against Penn State, but they will be a dog in both games so they won't be looking ahead at that game.  I think they'll empty out the playbook this week trying to pull off the upset.

Ohio State hasn't faced many offenses as potent as this Rutgers offense.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30 points per game while ranking 43rd in total offense at 420.5 yards per game and 23rd in passing offense at 277.4 yards per game.  Athan Kaliakmanis is one of the best QB's the Buckeyes have faced this season.  He is completing 62.3% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 per attempt.  

The Scarlet Knights have underrated playmakers at receiver too, and Antwan Raymond has already topped 1,000 rushing yards on the season with 11 TD.  This Rutgers offense won't be in a hurry either knowing that limiting possessions is their best chance to keep it close.  This just feels like a really sleepy spot for Ohio State with Michigan on deck.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SMU -2.5

The spot and the motivation really favors SMU in this showdown with Louisville Saturday.  That's why they should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Louisville, and I'll gladly take the value and lay the short number with the Mustangs at home here.

SMU is still alive to make the ACC Championship and thus the 12-team playoff.  They are one of four ACC teams with one conference loss and two will make it.  They have everything to play for, and they are off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to rest up and get ready to beat Louisville here.

Louisville is coming off consecutive gut-wrenching ACC losses.  They were upset by Cal at home by 3 and upset by Clemson at home by 1.  They now have three conference losses and no shot of winning the ACC Championship.  I question how they'll get back up off the mat here knowing all their dreams are crushed after they were sitting in such a prime position to make a run at a title.

Louisville hasn't been the same offensively since losing their best offensive weapon in RB Isaac Brown (782 yards, 5 TD, 8.6/carry) to a season-ending injury.  Now QB Miller Moss (2,344 yards, 11 TD) is questionable.  Brown rushed for 130 yards in leading them to a 28-16 win at VA Tech.  But he has missed the last two games, and they managed just 23 points at the end of regulation against Cal and 19 against Clemson.  They won't find much success against this improving SMU defense, either.

SMU really needed this bye week to recover after playing 6 straight weeks including a 26-20 (OT) win over Miami after a tough 1-point road loss at Wake Forest.  I was impressed with how they handled their business on the road at Boston College going into the bye.  They blasted the Eagles 45-13 on the road behind 574 total yards of offense.  Veteran QB Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season here down the stretch.  He threw for 365 yards on Miami's vaunted defense and 326 on Boston College.  

The Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have gone 16-2 SU at home over the last three seasons.  Head coach Rhett Lashlee really emphasizes how important it is to defend their home turf, and it has been a big reason he has been one of the better recruiters in the country as well.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Hawaii/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Hawaii Warriors are rolling since Las Vegas HS legend QB Micah Alejado got healthy.  The Warriors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall scoring 39.0 points per game in those five games with Alejado throwing at least 3 TD passes in all five.  That includes a 38-6 home win over San Diego State as 6.5-point dogs last time out.  They even called off the dogs in the 4th quarter against the the Aztecs, who have one of the best defenses in the country and sit alone in 1st place in the Mountain West.

Now the Warriors return from their bye week refreshed and ready to make a run at the MWC title themselves.  They are in a four-way tie for 2nd place with a real shot to make the title game.  You can bet Alejado will have a ton of friends and family in attendance in his home town of Las Vegas, and this will be a very pro Hawaii crowd because of it.

UNLV is one of the biggest frauds in the country.  The Rebels are 8-2 this season against the 115th schedule.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games with five wins by 7 points or fewer.  That includes their 29-26 (OT) home win over Utah State last week where they were very fortunate to win thanks to three missed field goals and a missed extra point by the Aggies.

Now the Rebels will be on a short week and playing their 4th consecutive game off an OT game.  They are at a big rest disadvantage here facing a Hawaii team off a bye.  No question the Warriors are the better team in this matchup when you look at the numbers as well, and the wrong team is favored.  Hawaii allows 349.1 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season, while UNLV allows 448.6 yards per game and 6.6 per play.  I'll gladly back the better, more rested team as an underdog in this one.  Bet Hawaii Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Jazz OVER 235.5

The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games combining for 266 points with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 8th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all seven games, and and 254 or more in six of those seven games.

The Thunder will have no problem running with the Jazz tonight.  In fact, they have motivation to win by as much as possible since this is a NBA Cup game and point differential is a tiebreaker.  That means they should keep their foot on the gas for four quarters and lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a massive number on this porous Jazz defense.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Thunder and Jazz finishing with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving these two teams when you look at the head-to-head history.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/SMU OVER 172.5

SMU looks like an offensive wagon this season with three double-digit scorers back from a team that won 24 games in Andy Enfield's first season last year.  The Mustangs are 5-0 led by an offense that is averaging 92.0 points per game on 50.3% shooting and 37.8% from 3-point range.

The Mustangs have scored at least 87 points in four of their five games.  The three returning starters are all off to great starts in Boopie Miller (20.0 PPG, 7.8 APG), BJ Edwards (14.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Samet Yigitoglu (12.0 PPG).  Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. (18.6 PPG) combines with Miller to form one of the best backcourts in the country.  Wichita State transfer Corey Washington (13.8 PPG) has a great inside-out game.

The Mustangs want to run ranking 18th in the country in average length of offensive possession at 14.5 seconds.  They are 80th in adjusted tempo.  Now they face an Arkansas State team that also wants to run under first-year head coach Ryan Pannone, who engineered Alabama's Top 5 offense for Nate Oats each of the past two seasons.

The Red Wolves are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season while ranking 36th in adjusted tempo and 20th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They even got St. Mary's to run with them last time out in a game that went over the total by 8 points despite them shooting just 37.7% from the field.  They will find more holes in this SMU defense to exploit as they are pretty lackluster on that end of the court allowing 85 points to Butler and 91 to Murray State.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cal Poly +13.5

Utah is 5-0 with four wins by 9 points or less.  The Utes are one of the most overrated teams in the country due to that unblemished 5-0 SU record, but they are 0-5 ATS and I don't expect them to cover tonight, either.

They beat San Jose State by 9 as 12.5-point favorites, Weber State by 3 in OT at 15.5-point favorites, Holy Cross by 18 as 21-point favorites, Sam Houston State by 6 as 13-point favorites and IPFW by 8 as 13-point favorites.  That win over IPFW was really bad when you consider IPFW is 2-4 this season with a 12-point loss to a bad WMU team, a 26-point loss to Ohio State and a 19-point loss to Grand Canyon.  IPFW's only two wins came against Boyce and Dominican IL.

Cal Poly is better than most those teams that Utah has already faced.  And we've seen Cal Poly play well on the road already upsetting Seattle as 10-point road dogs, only losing by 14 as 18.5-point dogs at Colorado State and only losing by 8 as 7.5-point dogs at Montana.  That's a very good Montana team that already upset UNLV on the road and nearly upset Texas A&M on the road in a 5-point defeat.  

Utah is in for another dog fight tonight.  The spot favors the Mustangs as they've had the last five days off to prepare for this game.  Utah will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after that lackluster 8-point win over IPFW on Tuesday.  Bet Cal Poly Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cal Poly/Utah OVER 167

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted tempo this season despite playing four of their first five games on the road.  They are going to play their style no matter the venue, which is as fast as possible getting a shot up every 14.7 seconds thus far.  

They also shoot a ton of 3-pointers averaging 31.4 attempts per game and allow a ton of 3-pointers with opponents averaging 32.6 attempts per game.  That leads to more fast breaks and more scoring with so many 3-pointers hoisted and long rebounds.

Utah also likes to play fast and is a much better offensive team than a defensive team.  The Utes rank 82nd in adjusted offense and 144th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 77.8 points per game.  Cal Poly is allowing 85.4 points per game this season.

Utah is 5-0 OVER in all games this season as oddsmakers just haven't been able to set their totals high enough.  Cal Poly is 2-0 OVER in its last two games combining for 172 points with Colorado State and 172 with Montana.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bills/Texans AFC No-Brainer on Houston +6

I'll gladly take 6 points with the best defense in the NFL at home against anyone.  The Texans rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 258.1 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play.  They are pretty much 1st or 2nd in every major defensive statistic this season.

That's why they can get away with having backup QB Davis Mills.  I think Mills is one of the best backups in the NFL, and it's not that much of a downgrade from CJ Stroud to him, especially with how healthy everyone else is around him right now.  Mills is completng 60% of his passes for 726 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, mostly from the last two weeks.  Hew threw for 293 yards against the Jaguars and 274 yards against the Titans the last two weeks.

The Texans are fully healthy outside of Stroud and NB Jalen Pitre.  That makes them a dangerous team right now.  The Bills are far from full strength, which makes them vulnerable and explains how poorly they have played on the road this season.  The Bills are without TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Curtis Samuel and WR Mecole Hardman on offense.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, SS Taylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin on defense.

Injuries along the defensive line are a big reason the Bills rank 31st in rushing defense allowing 153.0 yards per game and 31st at 5.4 yards per carry allowed.  The Texans know they can get what they want on the ground with Woody Marks and company, which will take a lot of pressure off of Mills having to do it all with his arm.

Two of the Bills worst performances came in two of their last three road games.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta and 30-13 at Miami.  Josh Allen isn't nearly as good on the road, and he had one of the worst games of his career the last time he faced Houston on the road.  Last season, Allen went 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards in a 23-20 road loss to the Texans.  Houston outgained Buffalo 425 to 276 in that contest, or by 149 total yards.

In their last two games with Mills at QB, they outgained the Jaguars 412 to 213, or by 199 total yards.  They outgained the Titans 315 to 229, or by 86 yards.  That was a Titans team coming off a bye and getting several key players back as well as it was a tricky spot.  The Texans need wins like blood sitting at 5-5 on the season and need this win more than the Bills do.  They haven't lost at home by more than 3 points all season, and they have just one home loss by more than 5 points over the last two seasons combined.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Blazers OVER 243.5

This game has high-scoring shootout written all over it.  It's a game between two Top 3 teams in pace with the Blazers ranking 2nd and the Bulls 3rd behind only the Miami Heat in that department.  There will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points.

The Bulls are 9-4 OVER this season despite playing 12 of their 13 games without Coby White.  Well, White just returned and poured in 27 points in 30 minutes in his season debut.  He will make this Bulls offense led by Josh Giddey even more potent moving forward.

The Blazers are 11-3 OVER in their 14 games this season.  They have played some poor offensive teams here lately and are still 7-1 OVER in their last eight games.  They went for 242 combined points with the Pelicans who were without Zion and Poole, 256 combined points with Houston, 271 with Dallas and 237 with Phoenix, who was without Allen and Green two of their best scorers.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -2

The Chicago Bulls have opened 7-6 SU & 8-4-1 ATS this season despite playing all but one game without Coby White.  Well, White just made his season debut with 27 points in 30 minutes off the bench.  The Bulls are now as healthy as they have been all season and one of the more underrated teams in the NBA.

The Blazers are struggling going 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans who were without Zion and Poole.  This is a very tough spot for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the Suns last night.

They lost by 17 at home to a Suns team that was missing two of their best players in Jalen Green and Grayson Allen, too.  Injuries are a problem for the Blazers right now being without Jrue Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG).  They also could be without Jerami Grant (18.3 PPG) who is battling illness and sat out last night.  

The Bulls are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Blazers.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.