|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-07-23||Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||91 h 23 m||Show|
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to beat the Chiefs and keep them from a first-round bye and home-field advantage. They hate the Chiefs and only lost 29-30 at Kansas City as 7.5-point underdogs. Now they are 7.5-point home dogs in the rematch, so they haven't even adjusted for home-field advantage.
They are clearly adjusting too much for the Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Stidham played under Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, so he knows the system. And the Raiders had their best offensive performance of the season last week with Stidham at quarterback.
The Raiders racked up 34 points and 500 total yards against the best defense in the NFL in the 49ers. Stidham went 23-of-34 passing for 365 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He made good use of his top two weapons in DeVante Adams and Darren Waller. Adams had seven receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns, while Waller had three receptions for 72 yards and a score. The Raiders have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs as they showed in that first meeting, and last week against the 49ers.
The Chiefs just have a way of playing to their level of competition. That's why they have only covered the spread in four of their 16 games this season. They just let the lowly Broncos hang around last week in a 27-24 home win as 13.5-point favorites. That's a Broncos team that was coming off a 51-14 loss to the Rams the previous week. Plus, all the pressure is on the Chiefs to get the win for the No. 1 seed, so the Raiders will kind of be free rolling here and playing more freely than the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. These six trends coming for a mind-blowing 36-1 system backing Las Vegas. Bet the Raiders Saturday.
|01-06-23||Heat -1 v. Suns||104-96||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
15* Heat/Suns ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Miami -1
The Miami Heat have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result. They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games overall. I like the fact that they are coming off an upset loss to the Lakers because they will come back motivated tonight and not take the Suns lightly.
The Suns are going through their worst stretch of the season due to injuries. They are playing without Devin Booker (27.1 PPG, 5.6 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.1 PPG, 5.3 APG). Chris Paul is too old to carry this team any longer, and they just aren't very good without those three. They have been held to 83 and 88 points in their last two games.
The Suns are now 1-7 SU in their last eight games overall with losses by 25, 25 and 19 points during this stretch. They are coming off a six-game road trip, and I love fading teams in their first game back home following a long trip. They have a lot of distractions to deal with back at home and not much time to do it with only one day off in between games. They haven't been home since December 23rd before Christmas.
The Suns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games. The Heat are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Phoenix. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following four or more consecutive road games. Phoenix is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 90 points or fewer. Take the Heat Friday.
|01-06-23||Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves||115-128||Loss||-110||11 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but not all back-to-backs are created equal. They were down by nearly 40 points in the 1st half against the Nuggets last night and as a result didn't play their starters in the 2nd half. Plus, they had two days off prior to the Denver game.
All five starters played 18 minutes or fewer, meaning they should still be fresh for Minnesota and should still have all hands on deck. It also means the Clippers will be playing with a big chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed on National TV last night. I fully expect them to come back tonight and win this game outright, but we'll take the 3.5 points for some insurance.
They take on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is not playing well right now, going just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Timberwolves have some injuries that are piling up and still don't have Karl-Anthony Towns back yet.
The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to Minnesota. Roll with the Clippers Friday.
|01-06-23||Pistons v. Spurs OVER 232.5||Top||109-121||Loss||-110||19 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Spurs OVER 232.5
Both the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams right now. Both rank in the top half of the league in pace and these are the two worst defensive teams in the entire NBA. The Spurs rank 30th in defensive efficiency while the Pistons rank 29th.
The OVER is 9-0 in Spurs last nine games overall with combined scores of 229 or more points in all nine games, and 237 or more combined points in seven of those. They have allowed 115 or more points in eight consecutive games.
The OVER is 9-4 in Pistons last 13 games overall. The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 235 or more points in 10 of those 13 games, so this 232.5-point total is very short considering how these two teams have been playing of late.
Detroit is 7-0 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season with an average of 250.3 combined points in those seven games. The OVER is 5-0 in Pistons last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 12-1 in Spurs last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|01-06-23||Blazers v. Pacers OVER 231.5||Top||99-108||Loss||-110||18 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Pacers OVER 231.5
The OVER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games overall. They have combined for 243, 261, 261, 236 and 240 points at the end of regulation in their last five games, respectively. This total is way too short tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Blazers and their opponents have combined for 227 or more points in four of their last five games coming in. The Blazers have scored at least 116 points in nine of their last 15 games overall and are an elite offensive team. They have also allowed at least 111 points in 18 of their last 22 games overall.
Indiana is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after winning three of its last four games this season. The OVER is 38-15-1 in Pacers last 54 home games overall. The Pacers rank 6th in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|01-06-23||Bulls v. 76ers OVER 227.5||Top||126-112||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/76ers OVER 227.5
The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Joel Embiid tonight but that actually makes them a better OVER team. It means that they have to go smaller and it takes away from them defensively more than anything. They still have plenty of scorers in Harden, Maxey, Harris and company to hang a big number on offense, but they will also give up a big number on defense.
The 76ers just beat the Pacers 129-126 (OT) in a game that saw 240 combined points at the end of regulation without Embiid. They are really hitting on all cylinders on offense scoring at least 11 points in eight consecutive games. The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven games overall.
The Bulls are also thriving offensively right now and embracing the up-tempo style. They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall with the OVER 5-2 in their last seven games. They have allowed 112 or more points in six of their last seven games overall as well. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|01-05-23||Celtics -2 v. Mavs||Top||124-95||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2
I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight. They are coming off two consecutive road losses to Denver and Oklahoma City. That includes their worst loss of the season at OKC by a final of 117-150 despite being 11.5-point favorites. Now we get them at a great value as only 2-point favorites at Dallas, and they are rested and ready to go playing only their 3rd game in 7 days.
While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Celtics off that blowout loss, it's time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks who have won seven consecutive games against a soft schedule. Three of those wins came against Houston, while the other four came against Minnesota, LA Lakers, New York and San Antonio. Their winning streak comes to an end tonight against the best team they have faced in a long time.
Plays on road favorites (Boston) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Mavericks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win. Dallas is 10-22-2 ATS in its last 34 games overall. The Mavericks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days' rest. Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. Boston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Dallas. Take the Celtics Thursday.
|01-05-23||Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 226.5||Top||123-115||Win||100||12 h 38 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK in Grizzlies/Magic OVER 226.5
The Orlando Magic had scored 110 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall before playing the Pistons and getting into a brawl. Several players were ejected and suspended, but they get several of them back last night and get more back tonight.
The Magic just beat the Thunder 126-115 last night for 241 combined points. The Magic have allowed 110 or more points in seven consecutive games and 119 or more in four of those. They are allowing an average of 115.4 points per game at home this season.
The Grizzlies have scored at least 116 points in four consecutive games and 114 or more in 15 of their last 21 games overall. Memphis is allowing 114.9 points per game on the road this season. This is a very low total for how both of these teams are playing right now.
The Grizzlies are 14-3 OVER in their last 17 road games following a road win by 10 points or more. The Magic are 11-2 OVER in non-conference games this season. Plays on the OVER when the total is 210 or higher (Orlando) - playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 72-34 (67.9%) since 1996. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|01-05-23||Purdue v. Ohio State -1||71-69||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
15* Purdue/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1
The Purdue Boilermakers just had their perfect 13-0 record go away with a 64-65 home loss to Rutgers last time out. I always like fading teams the game after having a long winning streak come to an end because there tends to be a hangover effect. And this is a brutal spot for the Boilermakers tonight.
They now have to travel to face an Ohio State team that is 10-3 this season and playing well, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 34, 31 and 16 points. The Buckeyes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game. They basically just have to win this game to cover tonight.
The Boilermakers have been one of the most overrated teams in the country dating back to last season, going 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Purdue is 2-12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss. The Boilermakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Roll with Ohio State Thursday.
|01-04-23||Nets v. Bulls OVER 235||Top||112-121||Loss||-110||10 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Bulls OVER 235
No team is hotter offensively right now than the Brooklyn Nets. They have scored 118 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games during their current 12-game winning streak. Now they'll be up against a Bulls team that is allowing 122.4 points per game in their last five games and 115.6 points per game overall this season.
The Bulls are hot offensively themselves right now. They have scored at least 118 points in five of their last six games overall and have embraced the up-tempo style. The OVER is 5-1 in Bulls last six games overall as a result. Five of those six games saw 232 or more combined points. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|01-04-23||Drake v. Southern Illinois -115||49-53||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Illinois ML -115
Drake has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. They are 11-4 SU but just 4-9-1 ATS. The Bulldogs have been terrible in true road games, going 0-4 SU with losses at Indiana State, Richmond, Saint Louis and Missouri State.
Southern Illinois has won six straight coming in and has a tremendous home-court advantage. The Salukis are 6-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming to Indiana State by 3. They are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game at home this season.
Southern Illinois has had this game circled all offseason. They have triple-revenge in mind after losing all three meetings with Drake last season, including losses by 1 and 2 points in the regular season before getting knocked out of the MVC Tournament by the Bulldogs. They get their revenge in their first meeting in 2022-23.
The Bulldogs are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.
|01-04-23||Pacers v. 76ers OVER 231.5||126-129||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/76ers OVER 231.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are fully healthy right now and loaded on offense. They have scored at least 111 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall including 118 or more seven of those games. They face a Pacers team that allows 115.8 points per game on the season.
The Pacers are a great OVER team because they rank 4th in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last four games overall with combined scores of 243, 261, 261 and 236 points. They have scored 122 or more points in all four games and have now scored at least 111 points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia. The OVER is 5-1 in 76ers last six games overall. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|01-04-23||Thunder v. Magic OVER 227.5||Top||115-126||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Magic OVER 227.5
The Thunder and their opponents have combined for 267, 234, 244 and 253 points in four of their last five games coming in. They have embraced playing the up-tempo game this season making them a dead nuts OVER team.
The Orlando Magic had scored 110 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall before playing the Pistons and getting into a brawl. Several players were ejected and suspended, but they get several of them back tonight including Anthony, Harris, Bamba and Carter Jr. They'll have no problem getting up and down with the Thunder tonight. The Magic have allowed 110 or more points in six consecutive games and 119 or more in four of those.
The Thunder are 10-2 OVER in non-conference games this season, and 7-0 OVER following two consecutive non-conference games. The OVER is 40-15-1 in Magic last 56 Wednesday games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|01-04-23||Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 142||69-79||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Michigan UNDER 142
Penn State ranks 275th in adjusted tempo and 63rd in adjusted defense. Michigan has been playing faster at 115th in adjusted tempo while playing solid D at 72nd in adjusted defense. This total has way too high when you consider the head-to-head series history.
Michigan and Penn State have combined for 141 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings with the lone exception being 144 points. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|01-03-23||Virginia v. Pittsburgh +6.5||Top||65-68||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +6.5
What more does Pittsburgh have to do to start getting some respect from bettors and the books alike? The Panthers have gone 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming by a single point at Vanderbilt, 74-75 as 3.5-point dogs.
The Panthers have pulled off upsets of UNC as 6.5-point home dogs, Syracuse as 3.5-point road dogs, NC State as 10-point road dogs and Northwestern as 7.5-point road dogs during this stretch. So it's not like they are beating up on inferior teams.
Now the Panthers are 6.5-point home dogs to a Virginia team that has only played three true road games this season. They won by 2 at Michigan and lost by 2 at Miami while winning and covering against a bad Georgia Tech team.
The last three meetings between Virginia and Pittsburgh were decided by 1, 5 and 7 points with two of those being at Virginia. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers consistently. Virginia is 14-29-2 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS win. Take Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|01-03-23||Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 230||Top||113-123||Loss||-110||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 230
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Bucks and Wizards. The Wizards beat a depleted Bucks team 118-95 for 213 combined points with a total of 221.5. Oddsmakers have adjusted this total up too much now for the rematch setting it at 230 because Giannis, Holiday and Hill are supposed to come back. Those three will provide offense, but they are also upgrades defensively.
Milwaukee ranks 13th in pace this season while Washington ranks 18th, so both are in the middle of the pack. But both get after it defensively. The Bucks rank 4th in defensive efficiency while the Wizards rank 11th, making them one of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA. They have allowed 111 or fewer points in five consecutive games during their current five-game winning streak.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Bucks and Wizards with combined scores of 213, 216, 210 and 195 points. They haven't sniffed 230 combined points in their last four meetings. The UNDER is 7-0 in Wizards last seven road games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-02-23||Heat v. Clippers -2.5||Top||110-100||Loss||-110||12 h 59 m||Show|
20* Heat/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers following two consecutive road losses to the Celtics and Pacers by a combined 7 points. Now they are back home tonight and highly motivated for a victory. Look for them to handle their business against the Miami Heat as they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with all four wins coming by 9 points or more.
The spot is terrible for the Miami Heat. They will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and just played in altitude twice in Denver and Utah. They won't have much left in the tank for the Clippers tonight.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Heat are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a win. Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and as healthy as they have been all season, showing why they were the preseason title favorites. I like backing a motivated Clippers team as a short home favorite tonight. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|01-02-23||Pistons +9.5 v. Blazers||106-135||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have no business being 9.5-point favorites against anyone right now. They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with two losses to OKC and a loss to a short-handed Warriors team. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.
The Pistons are playing well right now upsetting the Magic by 20 as home underdogs and upsetting the Timberwolves by 12 as road underdogs in two of their last three games. They also played the Bulls to the wire in between, but the Bulls had a huge run late to pull away. They took the Clippers to OT the game prior, too.
Portland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing 3 or less games in 10 days. The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite. The Pistons are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Take the Pistons Monday.
|01-02-23||Mavs v. Rockets +7.5||111-106||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +7.5
The Houston Rockets will be playing with double-revenge tonight. They lost by 6 to the Mavericks on December 23rd at home and by 15 to the Mavericks on December 29th on the road. So they will be facing the Mavericks for a 3rd time in 11 days here, and it's clear they will want this win a lot more than the Mavericks will.
While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets after losing eight of their last nine games, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks after winning six consecutive games. Five of those six wins came by single-digits, so they have simply been fortunate in close games, including a 1-point win over the Spurs last time out as 7.5-point favorites.
Dallas is 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games. Dallas is 10-21-2 ATS in its last 33 games overall. Roll with the Rockets Monday.
|01-02-23||Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5||111-124||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5
This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They just upset the Boston Celtics at home last night, making this the perfect letdown spot for them. Don't be surprised to see them rest some starters given the terrible rest spot.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Timberwolves, who have lost six consecutive games coming in. They will be rested and motivated after having yesterday off. The Timberwolves have owned the Nuggets, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 17, 15 and 6 points.
Denver is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive wins. It is losing by 7.3 points per game on average in this spot. Take the Timberwolves Monday.
|01-02-23||Spurs +12.5 v. Nets||Top||103-139||Loss||-110||9 h 60 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +12.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets. They have won 11 consecutive games and are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. They won't be excited at all to face the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and it's exactly the type of team that could end their streak.
The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show in their play. They have quietly gone 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games overall. All six wins came outright as underdogs and they also only lost by 1 to Dallas last time out.
Brooklyn is 12-36 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite. The Nets are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing record. San Antonio is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 trips to Brooklyn. Bet the Spurs Monday.
|01-02-23||Spurs v. Nets OVER 236||Top||103-139||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Nets OVER 236
The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy. Well, they are fully healthy right now and have gone 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 251, 237, 244, 248, 246 and 243 points in their last six games overall. The Spurs have scored at least 112 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.
The Brooklyn Nets are really clicking on offense during their current 11-game winning streak. They have scored at least 118 points in nine of their last 11 games overall and will get their points against the Spurs, but I expect them to give up a bunch, too. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-02-23||Bulls v. Cavs UNDER 223||134-145||Loss||-110||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 223
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, the Bulls and Cavs will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days. The Cavs won 103-102 in Chicago for just 205 combined points, and it's not like either team shot terrible as the Bulls shot 48% while the Cavs shot 46%. The books are making a mistake not adjusting this total down further for the familiarity factor.
Also, the Cavaliers will be without PG Darius Garland (21.4 PPG, 7.8 APG), which is a big loss for them offensively. They could also be without Evan Mobley (14.5 PPG), who is questionable. Cleveland ranks dead last (30th) in pace and will control the tempo playing at home. They also rank 1st in defensive efficiency, making them a dream UNDER team.
Chicago is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games following a loss by 6 points or less. The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 Monday games. The Bulls and Cavaliers have combined for 226 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings, including failing to reach 223 combined points in eight of their last 10 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|01-02-23||Lakers v. Hornets OVER 242||121-115||Loss||-110||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hornets OVER 242
I cashed in the Lakers/Hornets OVER on December 23rd in Los Angeles when these teams combined for 264 points in a 134-130 Lakers victory. Oddsmakers have once again failed to set this number high enough tonight as these are two dead nuts OVER teams.
The Lakers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Hornets rank 7th, so both like to get up and down. All these possessions usually result in buckets for the opponent as the Hornets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency while the Lakers rank 22nd. The Lakers have scored at least 115 points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.
The OVER is 14-2 in Lakers last 16 games vs. Southeast Division opponents, including 6-2 in their last eight meetings with the Hornets. The OVER is 8-1 in Lakers last nine road games. The OVER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +2.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||67 h 43 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +2.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions had the quietest 10-2 season you'll ever hear about. Their only two losses came to Michigan and Ohio State, and they racked up 482 total yards on the Buckeyes and outgained them by 30 yards. Both teams are in the four-team playoff.
Penn State is a complete team on offense and defense. They scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this season, while also allowing 17 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games. Their only opt-outs are CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington. They have the depth and talent to replace these two.
Utah doesn't have the same luxury of trying to replace TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Tavion Thomas and CB Clark Phillips III, who was a first-team All-American by some outlets. Thomas rushed for 687 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the Utes in rushing. Bit the big loss is TE Kincaid, who is by far Cam Rising's favorite target, finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns this season. He is Rising's security blanket on 3rd downs, and without him their QB will be lost.
Utah's offense was one of the best in school history, but not without Kincaid and Thomas. Utah's defense wasn't up to its usual standards though, and that was evident when they gave up 42 to UCLA and 42 to USC earlier this season. They benefited from facing two banged up QB's down the stretch for six of eight quarters against Oregon and USC. Both those teams run heavy read-option, and not having to worry about the QB run worked out well for the Utes. They still lost to Oregon, and Rising had a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in three road games this season against Oregon, Florida and UCLA.
The team that stops the run is going to have the upper hand in this game. I think Penn State is best equipped to do that when you look at the numbers. Penn State only allows 3.3 yards per carry against teams that averaged 4.3 per carry this season, holding them to 1.0 YPC less than their season averages. Utah allowed 3.9 YPC against teams that average 4.7 YPC, holding opponents to 0.8 YPC less than their season averages. I also trust Sean Clifford over Rising to make more plays through the air as he has the better weapons available, plus Utah doesn't get much pressure on opposing QB's without blitzing with one of the worst pressure rates in the country.
Simply put, Penn State is the better team that played the tougher schedule and should be favored in the Rose Bowl. The Nittany Lions outgained their opponents by 1.5 yards per play on the season while the Utes only outgained opponents by 1.0 yards per play. The Nittany Lions allow 4.6 YPP on defense while the Utes allow 5.7 YPP.
James Franklin is 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference win as the coach of Penn State. Franklin is 13-1 ATS following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more as the coach of the Nittany Lions. The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a narrow loss to Ohio State and five blowout wins by 19 points or more, including four by 28 points or more. Bet Penn State in the Rose Bowl Monday.
|01-02-23||Tulane +2.5 v. USC||Top||46-45||Win||100||63 h 43 m||Show|
20* Tulane/USC Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Tulane +2.5
Tulane will be the more motivated team in the Cotton Bowl Monday against USC. They flew under the radar all season despite winning the AAC Championship, and nobody is talking about them heading into bowl season, either. Now they are ready to prove their doubters wrong one last time as underdogs to USC in a game I fully expect them to win outright.
Tulane went 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS this season with their only losses coming by 3 to Southern Miss and by 7 to UCF. They outgained Southern Miss by 198 yards so that loss was a complete fluke. And they avenged that defeat to UCF in the AAC Championship Game in emphatic fashion. They won 45-28 while racking up 648 total yards and outgaining the Knights by 238 yards in the rematch. They also beat Big 12 champ Kansas State 17-10 on the road earlier this season.
While Tulane really wants to be here and it shows as they have had zero opt-outs, USC does not want to be here. They had their sights set on making the four-team playoff with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Things were going great for the Trojans early with a 17-3 lead, but then QB Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury, and the defense got shredded in a 47-24 loss to Utah. A win would have put them in the four-team playoff.
Williams says he expects to play but even if he does, he won't be looking to test that hamstring too much as a dual-threat, which is what makes him such a great player. He isn't nearly as great of a passer when he doesn't have the threat of running. Plus, he won't have his two best offensive linemen as 3rd-team All-American C Brett Neilon and 1st-team All-American G Andrew Vorhees will both be out due to injury. He also won't have leading WR Jordan Addison (59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD) due to an ankle injury as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
Which team does a better job of stopping the run will decide this game. Tulane RB Tyjae Spears was banged up early in the season, but rushed for over 1,100 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry over his final seven games. He'll be up against a USC defense that ranks 125th in defensive rushing success rate. The Trojans allow 149 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season. Compare that to Tulane, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry, and it's easy to see which team is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage.
This is also a great matchup for the Tulane defense as their actual strength is defending the pass. They only allow 189 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, holding opponents to 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages. USC averages 326 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and this could legitimately be the best secondary they have faced this season. Tulane only allows 4.8 yards per play on the season while USC allows 6.3 yards per play.
The Green Wave are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games. USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. They just don't care about winning this game as much as the Green Wave do, and that's going to be the biggest difference in this game. Take Tulane in the Cotton Bowl Monday.
|01-01-23||Celtics -1.5 v. Nuggets||Top||111-123||Loss||-110||10 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5
The Boston Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins by 12 over the Timberwolves, by 21 over the Bucks, by 26 over the Rockets and by 6 over the Clippers. They are as healthy as they have been all season with Robert Williams back in the lineup, and they are now not only the best offensive team in the NBA, but also one of the best defensive teams with Williams.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets, who have won six of their last seven games against a soft schedule. They have also been very fortunate in close games during this run with four wins by 7 points or fewer. Their luck runs out tonight against a better, more complete Celtics team that is rested after having the last two days off.
The Celtics simply own the Nuggets, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. They have won six consecutive meetings straight up by 19, 20, 6, 18, 13 and 13 points. Boston is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 road games. Bet the Celtics Sunday.
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||110 h 6 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -3
The Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they have been all season, and to no surprise it has coincided with their best stretch of the season. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to get right back into the playoff hunt. They need some help, but they are doing their part, and they will want revenge on the Vikings after losing at Minnesota in Week 1.
The Vikings are the most fraudulent 12-3 team in the history of the NFL. They are 11-0 in one score games this season and have only outscored their opponents by 5 total points on the season. Their luck runs out this week against a Packers team that wants it more. After all, the Vikings are locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed basically, which isn't that big of a difference.
While the Packers are outgaining their opponents by 6 yards per game on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by nearly 50 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play. That's unheard of for a 12-3 team. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 31st in total defense at 402.3 yards per game and 31st at 6.0 yards per play allowed. That's not a championship defense, and the Packers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since getting all their weapons healthy.
Kirk Cousins has always been worse outdoors and worse in any games that don't start at 1:00 EST on a Sunday. He does not handle these big stages well. It's going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, and home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points for the Packers in this one. I think they're the better team right now and need it more.
Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. conference opponents over the last two seasons. The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Vikings. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|01-01-23||Rams v. Chargers OVER 40.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||110 h 5 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5
The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win. Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football. I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense.
This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury. The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two. Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams.
The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback. And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable. That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense. Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers.
The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield. Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run. They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry. So Mayfield will not have to do it all. I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks.
I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be. Those totals were all 45 or higher. Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion. This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late. And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well.
The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Jets v. Seahawks OVER 41.5||6-23||Loss||-110||110 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5
Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week. This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco. This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast. It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon.
The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense. The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play. This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well.
White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week. He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well. The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.
No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week. The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals. The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Cincinnati v. Temple +4||61-70||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +4
Cincinnati has benefitted from playing a home-heavy, easy schedule this season. The Bearcats have played the 281st-ranked schedule and have only played one true road game this season. They lost outright by 13 at Northern Kentucky as 6.5-point favorites.
I think they lose outright here too as this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bearcats after going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. Seven of those games were at home with a neutral game against lowly Louisville mixed in.
Temple has played the 123rd-ranked schedule, which is nearly 150 spots harder than that of Cincinnati. It's a Temple team that has beaten the likes of Villanova, Rutgers and VCU this season with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite of 6 points or less or PK. Temple is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Cincinnati with two outright upsets and a 2-point loss as a 6.5-point dog. The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Temple Sunday.
|01-01-23||Saints v. Eagles OVER 44||Top||20-10||Loss||-110||107 h 40 m||Show|
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Saints/Eagles OVER 44
The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts OVER team right now with or without Jalen Hurts. He's questionable to return this week, but Gardner Minshew once again showed he's probably the best backup QB in the league by nearly upsetting the Cowboys in a 34-40 road loss last week. I'm good with the OVER In this game with Minshew or Hurts.
The Eagles and their opponents have combined for 45 or more points in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall. The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games. They will get their points, and I expect the Saints to chip in enough to push this total OVER the number.
This total has been set too low due to the Saints going under the total in four consecutive games. But they played in terrible conditions last week in Cleveland, and they have faced two elite defenses in the 49ers and Bucs during this stretch as well. The Eagles have some injuries in their secondary that can be exploited as we saw by the Cowboys last week. They have also allowed at least 99 rushing yards in 10 of their last 11 games overall and the Saints are a good rushing team. I have the feeling they are going to have to get more pass-happy this week to try and keep up with Philadelphia.
After some terrible weather last weekend, the weather looks good almost everywhere this week, including in Philadelphia. The forecast is calling for 56 degrees and 11 MPH winds with only a 7% chance of precipitation at kickoff on Sunday as of this writing on Friday. That sounds like perfect conditions for a shootout to me for an outdoor game.
The Saints and Eagles have combined for at least 45 points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-23||Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 41||19-20||Loss||-110||107 h 40 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Falcons OVER 41
The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this week. As a result, this is going to be a care-free game with plenty of offense and little defense being played. It will also be played inside the dome in Atlanta, and this is a very low total for a dome game.
The Cardinals are expected to get back Colt McCoy at quarterback this week. He is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL. He will be able to move the football and score points on an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game, 28th in total defense at 373.0 yards per game and 29th at 5.8 yards per play.
Desmond Ridder will be making his third start of the season for the Falcons. We saw what Baker Mayfield did last week in his third start for the Rams. I think Ridder will have easily his best game yet as this is a big step down in class of opponent defense after facing two very good stop units in the Saints and Ravens in his first two starts. Now Ridder will be up against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense at 26.1 points per game and 22nd in total defense at 354.8 yards per game.
The OVER is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 67, 54, 57 and 47 points. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-31-22||Pelicans v. Grizzlies -6||101-116||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -6
The Memphis Grizzlies have been dynamite at home this season. They are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. They are fully healthy right now and rested and ready to go after having yesterday off.
The same cannot be said for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days after a home win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night. They will be without Brandon Ingram and Larry Nance Jr. again tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest others after Williamson played 31 minutes and McCollum 35 minutes last night.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with all four wins by double-digits. Memphis is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New Orleans with wins by 21, 27, 21 and 12 points.
The Pelicans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games. The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to cover four or five of their last six games. The Pelicans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after covering four of their last five ATS coming in. Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.
|12-31-22||Nets v. Hornets OVER 237||Top||123-106||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Hornets OVER 237
The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have gone 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and have combined for 235 or more points in seven of those 10 games. They have scored 118 or more points in eight of those 10 games.
The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as it is, but they have actually gone under the total in three consecutive games which is keeping this number lower than it should be. The Hornets got back La'Melo Ball from injury and the books have jacked up their totals because of it. But this one is now too low tonight.
The Hornets rank 10th in the NBA in pace and play even faster with Ball. They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency as well. The Hornets and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall, so it's not like they are playing in low-scoring games.
These teams combined for 238 points in their most recent meeting on December 7th as well, a game in which Ball was out. Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Charlotte) - after going under the total by 18 points or more total in their last three games, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 37-11 (77.1%) since 1996. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-31-22||Mavs v. Spurs +7.5||Top||126-125||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5
The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall despite being underdogs in all 11 games. That means they have six outright upset wins as underdogs. They have gotten healthy which is a big reason for their improved play.
While the Spurs are getting zero respect for their recent solid play, the Mavericks are getting massive respect for their 5-0 SU run. Now they are 7.5-point road favorites here against the Spurs when this line should be much closer to PK. The Mavericks cannot be trusted as this big of a favorite. They have played 36 games this season and have just six wins by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.
Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a divisional home win. The Mavericks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Dallas is 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Mavericks are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games. Dallas is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
|12-31-22||Mavs v. Spurs OVER 230.5||126-125||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Spurs OVER 230.5
The books have set the bar too low in this game between the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks tonight considering the way they have been playing recently. We'll take advantage and back the OVER tonight.
The Spurs have gotten healthy of late and have gone 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall. They have scored at least 112 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall while allowing at least 111 points in nine of their last 10 games.
The OVER is 3-0 in Mavericks last three games overall. They combined for 239 points with the Lakers, to 247 points with the Knicks and 243 points with the Rockets. They combined for 250 and 232 points in their last two meetings with the Spurs, respectively.
Plays on the OVER in all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Dallas) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a team with a winning record playing a losing team are 31-10 (75.6%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-31-22||Cavs -2.5 v. Bulls||103-102||Loss||-110||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5
This is a terrible spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a big 4th quarter finish to pull away to beat the lowly Detroit Pistons last night. They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. Four starters played at least 31 minutes last night including over 38 for LaVine and nearly 35 for DeRozan.
The Cavaliers come in rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. Cleveland will also be highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games coming in. They had won five straight prior to this stretch.
Plays on road favorites (Cleveland) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.
|12-31-22||St. Mary's v. Santa Clara +6||Top||67-64||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +6
Santa Clara is too good to be catching 6 points at home to St. Mary's today. Santa Clara is 13-3 this season with the three losses coming to Utah State, UCF and San Jose State with two of those on the road. The Broncos are 10-1 at home this season and have won five consecutive games coming in with the last three all by 9 points or more. That includes wins over quality opponents in San Francisco by 12 and Boise State by 15 in their last two games.
St. Mary's is 11-4 this season with losses to Washington, New Mexico, Houston and Colorado State. Amazingly, the Gaels have yet to play a true road game, so this will be their first true road game of 2022. They almost made it to 2023 without having to play a true road game, which is just nuts. I always like fading teams in their first true road game.
The head-to-head history also shows Santa Clara is catching too many points tonight. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Gaels. Amazingly, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less, including five by 6 points or fewer. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games following three or more consecutive home wins. Roll with Santa Clara Saturday.
|12-31-22||California Baptist v. Seattle University -4||65-71||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Seattle -4
The Seattle Redhawks are loaded this season and off to a 9-4 start including 5-0 at home. The four losses were all to very good teams in Iona, Utah State, Washington and Oregon State. They have handled all other teams, and they will handle Cal Baptist tonight.
Cal Baptist is 8-6 SU & 5-7-1 ATS this season. The Lancers have some really bad losses along the way especially on the road. They lost by 11 at Cal Poly as 4.5-point favorites. They lost by 2 at home to Portland State as a 7-point favorite and by 15 at home to Long Beach State as a 4-point favorite. Last time out they lost by 14 at Grand Canyon as a 6-point dog. Portland State is a common opponent, and Seattle beat them by 12 at home.
Seattle has won three straight meetings with Cal Baptist. Seattle is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half last game. Take Seattle Saturday.
|12-31-22||New Mexico -2 v. Wyoming||Top||76-75||Loss||-110||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -2
New Mexico is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Lobos are 13-0 SU & 8-3-1 ATS this season with upset road wins over both SMU and St. Mary's, as well as wins over San Francisco, Iona and Colorado State. They want to go into 2023 with an unbeaten record and will be motivated to do just that, so there will be no letdown here.
Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Cowboys are 5-8 SU & 3-8-1 ATS this season. They really miss one of the best big men in the country in Ike, who average 19.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG last season and has yet to make his debut. G Kenny Foster (5.9 PPG) is questionable for the Cowboys today as well.
Wyoming has lost three straight to Dayton by 17, St. Mary's by 12 and Fresno State by 5 coming in. That gives these teams a common opponent in St. Mary's, who the Lobos upset in a true road game while the Cowboys lost by 12 to them on a neutral.
New Mexico is 7-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Cowboys are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Wyoming is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Take New Mexico Saturday.
|12-31-22||San Diego State v. UNLV +4.5||76-67||Loss||-115||6 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UNLV +4.5
The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 11-2 SU & 7-5 ATS this season with their two losses by 2 and 3 points, so they haven't lost by this margin all season. They will relish this opportunity to try and take down San Diego State and pull off the upset as home underdogs.
San Diego State is 10-3 SU but 3-9 ATS, classifying as one of the most overrated teams in the country. And they have only played one true road game this season with a win at lowly Stanford, while going 1-3 on neutrals. They've done almost all their damage at home.
UNLV is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week. The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet UNLV Saturday.
|12-31-22||Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5||62-77||Loss||-110||4 h 24 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Baylor/Iowa State UNDER 132.5
Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Cyclones rank 279th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense this season. The Cyclones are holding opponents to 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 16.4 points per game less than their season averages.
Baylor doesn't play that fast ranking 127th in adjusted tempo and will be forced to play at Iowa State's pace with this game being on the road. The Bears are expected to be without LJ Cryer (14.9 PPG), which is a big blow to them offensively. The Cyclones will be without one of their best shooters in Aljaz Kunc (8.5 PPG, 35.9% 3-pointers) for this one.
The UNDER is 14-3 in Cyclones last 17 games overall. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine home games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last five games overall. The UNDER is 11-1 in Cyclones last 12 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77-plus points per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama -6.5||Top||20-45||Win||100||70 h 0 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Alabama Sugar Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6.5
It looks like Alabama is going to try to make a statement against Kansas State that they belonged part of the four-team playoff. Their two losses came by a combined 4 points on a last-second FG to Tennessee and a 2-point conversion to LSU. They have had no opt-outs so far and only some transfers of players that felt like they weren't getting enough playing time. The bad apples are gone, and the Crimson Tide look fully locked in for the Sugar Bowl.
The early money came on Kansas State with the anticipation that Alabama wouldn't care about this game and a bunch of guys would opt out. Instead, the Crimson Tide are expected to have five projected first-round picks playing in this game, including Top 10 picks in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson. Their commitment to this bowl game just shows how much it means to Alabama.
Note that Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in every single game this season. So getting we are getting them as only 6.5-point favorites here against Kansas State, which is a tremendous value if they are locked in. The Big 12 is way down this season, which allowed the Wildcats to win it. That has played out in the bowls as the Big 12 is 1-3 in bowls thus far. The Wildcats are getting too much respect here against the Crimson Tide, and I expect this line to close -7 or higher so get it in early.
This will be by far Kansas State's toughest test of the season. This will actually be a step down in class for Alabama compared to what they have faced in the SEC. It's a bad matchup for the Wildcats because they need to run the football to score. They average as many rushing yards as they do passing yards this season.
Well, Alabama allows just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. Nick Saban is a genius with extra preparation, and the Crimson Tide will be prepared to stop this Kansas State rushing attack. Alabama allows just 18.0 points per game on the season. We saw Kansas State struggle to score against two of the set defenses they faced this season in Iowa State and Tulane. They managed just 10 points against Tulane and 10 against Iowa State.
Bryce Young leads an Alabama offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. This will be the toughest test of the season for this Kansas State defense. They have been vulnerable against the best offenses they have faced, allowing 38 points to TCU, 34 to Texas and 34 to Oklahoma. I can't see Alabama being held to less than 35 in this one, which is going to make it very difficult for Kansas State to hang. This game will be on a fast turf inside the Superdome in New Orleans which favors the athletes and the speed of Alabama over the blue-collared Kansas State players. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Saturday.
|12-31-22||Iowa -130 v. Kentucky||21-0||Win||100||14 h 42 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Kentucky Music City Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa ML -130
Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 last season in the Citrus Bowl. How excited do you think they're going to be to play the Hawkeyes again this season? The answer is not very. Meanwhile, Iowa will want revenge and will clearly bet the more motivated team. I fully expect the Hawkeyes to win this game given the motivational edge and a couple other key factors.
Iowa will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 14.4 points per game, 278.1 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season. They are only missing a couple players on defense due to opt-outs. They will be up against a Kentucky offense that won't have their two best players in QB Will Levis and RB Christopher Rodriquez, who will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They will also be up against a suspect Kentucky offensive line, which may be the worst unit on the field.
Levis is a first-round pick at QB and Rodriquez is one of the best RB's in the draft. The downgrade to backup QB Kaiya Sheron is massive. He started one game this season against South Carolina and the Wildcats were upset 14-24 at home. He completed just 15-of-27 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss. And that's a South Carolina defense that was one of the worst in the SEC this season. Rodriquez rushed for 903 yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 per carry in only eight games this season.
Iowa won't have QB Spencer Petras due to injury, and backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal. This could be addition by subtraction as no team in the country got worse QB play than Iowa. Third-string freshman Joey Labas could actually be an upgrade. Kentucky doesn't have game film on him, and he actually adds some mobility. Helping Labas out is the fact that TE Sam Laporta will play in this game despite being one of the top NFL TE prospects. He led the Hawkeyes in receiving with 53 receptions for 600 yards this season.
Iowa only allows 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season, while Kentucky allows 147 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. This game will be won on the ground, and Iowa has the advantage. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (757 yards, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) came on strong down the stretch and should lead this Iowa offense to enough points to win this game.
Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after playing a home game. Take Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.
|12-31-22||College of Charleston -2.5 v. Towson||76-74||Loss||-115||2 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on College of Charleston -2.5
Charleston is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to North Carolina. They have beaten the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, VA Tech and Kent State so it's not like they have played a soft schedule, either.
They have played the 193rd-ranked schedule which is tougher than Towson's 236th-ranked schedule. Towson is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with bad losses to Navy at home as a 7.5-point favorite, Northern Iowa by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral and by 10 at Bryant as a 1-point dog.
Charleston is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season. Charleston is 43-15 ATS in its last 58 December road games. The Cougars are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The Cougars need to be bigger favorites here. Roll with Charleston Saturday.
|12-30-22||Jazz v. Kings -3||125-126||Loss||-110||13 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3
The Sacramento Kings are 10-7 SU & 10-7 ATS at home this season and I like the value we are getting on them as short home favorites against the Utah Jazz. They are fully healthy right now and have been a dangerous team when that's the case.
The Jazz haven't been very good on the road going just 1-8 SU in their last nine road games. They are coming off a pair of bad road losses to the Spurs and Warriors despite being favored in both games. I give them little chance of being competitive in this road game tonight.
Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jazz are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sacramento is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one days' rest. Take the Kings Friday.
|12-30-22||76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227||Top||116-127||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Pelicans OVER 227
The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team when Zion Williamson is in the lineup. The OVER is 8-2 in Pelicans last 10 games overall with combined scores of 245, 253, 262, 232, 247, 243, 253 and 237 points in the eight OVERS. That makes this 227-point total a bargain compared to how they have been playing of late.
The Pelicans will control the tempo playing at home and rank 9th in the NBA in pace. They are also 5th in offensive efficiency. Now they face a Philadelphia 76ers team that has played a lot more OVERS of late with the return of James Harden, plus they get Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) back in the lineup tonight from a long absence.
The OVER is 8-3 in 76ers last 11 games overall with combined scores of 224 or more points in nine of those 11 games. They have scored at least 118 points in seven of those 11 games and allowed at least 112 points in eight of their last 12 games overall.
Philadelphia is 7-0 OVER as a road favorite this season. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-30-22||Lakers v. Hawks OVER 239||Top||130-121||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Hawks NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 239
The Atlanta Hawks were already an OVER team but that's especially the case without their most important defender in Clint Capela, who remains out with a calf injury. The Hawks rank 5th in the NBA in pace and they will be facing a Lakers team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in pace. This game will clearly be played at one of the most frantic paces of the season.
The Lakers have had no problem scoring this season as they are putting up 115.6 points per game despite all their injuries, but they are fully healthy now with the exception of Anthony Davis. They are terrible on defense which is why they are 14-21, allowing 117.6 points per game. The Hawks are also terrible on defense allowing 115.1 points per game. They have allowed at least 122 points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Lakers have allowed at least 124 points in four of their last six and at least 110 points in 14 of their last 15 games.
Both meetings between the Hawks and Lakers were absolute shootouts last season as they combined for 252 and 250 points. This is a high total tonight, but it's not high enough. The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last eight road games. The OVER is 9-1 in Lakers last 10 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-30-22||NC State v. Clemson -1.5||64-78||Win||100||6 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -1.5
Clemson is 10-3 this season with two losses coming by a combined 5 points. The Tigers have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 7-0 at home this season and scoring 81.0 points per game at home. They'll be excited to be playing their first home game since December 7th whlile coming off two of their most complete games of the season, beating Richmond by 28 on a neutral as 2-point favorites and topping Georgia Tech by 13 on the road as 1.5-point favorites.
NC State has only played one true road game all season. The Wolf Pack lost that game 73-80 at Miami as 4.5-point dogs. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road underdogs in their second true road game of the season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive games with 19 or more assists. They are sharing the ball well right now which is a big reason they are coming off two of their most impressive performances of the season. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. up-tempo teams that average at least 62 shots per game. Take Clemson Friday.
|12-30-22||South Carolina v. Notre Dame -2||Top||38-45||Win||100||65 h 25 m||Show|
20* South Carolina/Notre Dame Gator Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2
South Carolina is getting way too much respect heading into bowl season for upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the season. Hendon Hooker got injured for Tennessee and they were coming off the Georgia loss so they were flat. DJ Uliagalelei has one of his worst games of his career going 8-of-29 for 99 yards in the loss for Clemson. He was replaced in the ACC Championship Game, and should have been replaced much sooner in the season.
Keep in mind Notre Dame also beat Clemson 35-14, while South Carolina won 31-30 to give these teams a common opponent. The Fighting Irish do have some opt-outs in TE Michael Mayer and DE Isaiah Foskey, who have declared fro the NFL Draft. QB Drew Pyne transferred, but he wasn't very good anyway. Previous starter Tyler Buchner is expected back after missing the last 10 games due to injury, and their 3rd-stringer is very talented if forced into action.
It doesn't matter who is under center because Notre Dame is going to rush for monster numbers on this South Carolina defense. The Fighting Irish average 183 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, and they'll be up against a Gamecocks defense that allows 195 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. That will be the key matchup that has Notre Dame winning this game.
South Carolina has way more opt-outs and transfers than Notre Dame. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska. TE's Jaheim Bell (492 scrimmage yards, 5 TD) and Austin Strogner (235 yards, 1 TD) have transferred. QB Spencer Rattler is transferring as well but will play in the bowl, and I don't trust him to play well. WR Josh Vann (296 yards, 3 TD) is out with an injury. Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd (572 yards, 9 TD) entered the portal. DL Zacch Pickens (42 tackles, 2.5 sacks), top CB Darius Rush (38 tackles, 2 INT) and top OT Dylan Wonnum won't play as they prepare for the NFL Draft. DE Gilbert Edmond (9 TFL) entered the portal, and S Devonni Reed (39 tackles) won't play. They'll be without nine starters as of this writing.
The matchup is great for Notre Dame's offense against South Carolina's poor run defense, and the matchup is also great for Notre Dame's defense against South Carolina's pass-happy offense. The Gamecocks average 258 passing yards per game, but the Fighting Irish only allow 191 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. Notre Dame is outgaining opponents by 56 yards per game on the season while South Carolina is getting outgained by 13 yards per game. The Fighting Irish should be a bigger favorite here. The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Roll with Notre Dame Friday.
|12-29-22||Colorado v. Stanford -2||Top||73-70||Loss||-110||17 h 42 m||Show|
20* Colorado/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2
Stanford is just 5-7 this season and favored tonight over Colorado. The reason is simple. They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and are better than their record, and we are actually getting them at a great value tonight due to that poor record.
Stanford has faced the 17th-toughest schedule in the country. Their seven losses have come to Wisconsin, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Memphis, UCLA, ASU and Texas with all seven losses coming by 14 points or fewer.
Colorado is 8-5 against the 84th-ranked schedule and has played a home-heavy schedule. The Buffaloes have only played two true road games this season. They lost both, including a 74-83 upset loss at Grambling as 14.5-point favorites and a 63-73 loss at Washington as 1-point favorites.
The Buffaloes are 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 road games. Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win. The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing well heading into this one. Take Stanford Thursday.
|12-29-22||Washington +3.5 v. Texas||Top||27-20||Win||100||47 h 56 m||Show|
20* Washington/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Washington +3.5
Kalen DeBoer is quickly becoming one of the best head coaches in the country. He led Washington to a 10-2 season in his first year after coming over from Fresno State. The Huskies head into bowl season on a six-game winning streak and have scored 32 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this season.
DeBoer is an offensive genius, and he has resurrected Michael Penix Jr's career at quarterback. Penix came over from Indiana where he spent time in DeBoer's system. He led a Washington offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 523.0 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. Penix completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards with a 29-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for four scores this season.
Penix really thrived against zone defenses, and that's all Texas does is play zone. It helped them be great against the run this season, but they were terrible against the pass, making this a bad matchup for them. Washington throws for 377 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt, while Texas allows 239 passing yards per game on the season.
The Huskies will have all hands on deck for this one, and Penix announced he will be back for the 2023 season. Conversely, Texas keeps having more opt-outs by the day. Texas' top two RB's in Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TD, 6.1 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (554 yards, 5 TD, 6.0 YPC) have opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. Robinson is arguably the best RB in the country. LB DeMarvion Overshown won't play to prepare for the NFL Draft too. So Texas will be without its top two RB's, a couple LB's, a CB and a DE among nine opt-outs/transfers as of this writing. This bowl game means nothing to them.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for has thrown just one TD pass in his last three games and fewer than 200 yards in four consecutive games. The Longhorns have been relying heavily on running the football down the stretch and now won't have their top two backs. They will continue to try and run, but it won't work against the strength of Washington's defense, which is stopping the run. The Huskies only allow 130 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry on the season. Roll with Washington Thursday.
|12-29-22||Rockets +11.5 v. Mavs||Top||114-129||Loss||-110||15 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +11.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks. They are 4-0 in their last four games overall and needed a 60-point effort and a big comeback in the final minutes to beat the Knicks 126-121 (OT) at home last time out.
This is now a clear letdown spot for the Mavericks, who beat the Rockets 112-106 on the road during this four-game winning streak. They won't be excited to play them again, while the Rockets will be out for revenge and will be the more motivated team. Getting 11.5 points with the Rockets given the situation is too much tonight.
After all, Dallas has won by double-digits only five times in 35 games this season. They aren't blowing teams out because they don't play great defense. They will let Houston hang around in this one as they just have a way of playing to their level of competition.
Dallas is 0-9 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season. The Mavericks are 1-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season. Dallas is 8-17 ATS as a favorite this season. The Mavericks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Rockets Thursday.
|12-29-22||Oklahoma v. Florida State -9||32-35||Loss||-110||44 h 30 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Florida State Cheez-It Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -9
Few teams are playing better than Florida State heading into bowl seasons. The Seminoles have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and Mike Norvell finally has this program headed in the right direction. The Seminoles have actually outgained eight of their last nine opponents with the only exception being getting outgained by 12 yards by Wake Forest in Game 4. They have outscored their last five opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgained them by an average of 218 yards per game.
Amazingly, Florida State won't be missing any key players for this bowl game. Two NFL prospects in S Jammie Robinson and DE Jared Verse have stated they will play. The same cannot be said for Oklahoma, which is missing both starting OT's in Anton Harrison and Wanya Harris, DL Jalen Redmond and RB Eric Gray (1,364 yards, 11 TD, 6.4 YPC) who will all be entering the NFL Draft. WR Theo Wease has entered the transfer portal.
Oklahoma has been going the other direction to close out the season. The Sooners went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games including three upset losses to Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech. This has been a poor Oklahoma defense all season allowing 29.6 points per game and 450.7 yards per game. They allow 189 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game and Florida State figures to have a big game on the ground and through the air. The Seminoles average 218 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry as well as 258 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt.
Florida State also has a great defense, allowing 19.7 points per game, 308 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are tremendous against the pass, allowing just 159 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt. The only concern they have on defense is stopping the Dillon Gabriel to Marvin Mims connection. Mims has 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and 6 TD this season. Look for the Seminoles to try and take him away with double-teams and shifting coverages.
The Seminoles will have a home-field advantage with this game being played in Orlando as well. The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 bowl games. It's clear which team cares about this game, and which doesn't, thus this one has blowout written all over it. Take Florida State Thursday.
|12-29-22||Minnesota -9.5 v. Syracuse||28-20||Loss||-118||40 h 55 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has a perfect ATS record in bowl games and is quickly becoming one of the best bowl coaches in the country. He will have his team ready to go for the Pinstripe Bowl and this will be one of his easiest bowl tests yet as a head coach considering all that Syracuse is missing.
Minnesota went 8-4 this season and it easily could have been better. They should have beaten Iowa in their second-to-last game but suffered a fluky 13-10 loss despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 119 yards and racking up 399 yards against a very good Iowa defense. They did beat Wisconsin 23-16 in the finale and racked up 416 total yards on a very good Badgers defense while outgaining them by 82 yards. The Golden Gophers are only missing two defenders in LB Braelen Oliver and S Michael Dixon, who entered the transfer portal. They could even get back QB Tanner Morgan and aren't missing anyone on offense.
Syracuse is in a world of hurt heading into this bowl game. The biggest loss is RB Sean Tucker, who has 3,064 scrimmage yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He will be taking his talents to the NFL. LeQuint Allen (180 rushing yards) is likely to work as the top back. WR Courtney Jackson (15 receptions) and DL Steve Linton (6 TFL) have entered the portal. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae left to take over the same position at NC State. Defensive coordinator Tony White left for the same position at Nebraska. Top CB Darian Chestnut and top OL Matthew Bergeron will also sit this game.
Syracuse is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and heading in the wrong direction. A big problem for them is their run defense, which has allowed 213 or more yards on the ground in four of their last six games. That's bad news for them against a Minnesota team that ranks 11th in the country in rushing at 218 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. The Golden Gophers will get whatever they want against Syracuse on the ground. I also expect this Minnesota defense, which allows just 13.3 points per game and 280.8 yards per game, to shut down anything Syracuse tries to do without Tucker. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last five bowl games. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|12-28-22||Nuggets v. Kings +2.5||Top||126-127||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +2.5
I had a tough beat on the Sacramento Kings +3.5 last night as they blew a 20-point lead and lost by 7 to the Denver Nuggets. I will get my revenge tonight, and so will the Kings as they win this game outright in the rematch. They will be the more motivated team after blowing that big lead, and the Nuggets won't show up at all after just beating the Kings last night.
The Kings are a young, deep team that can handle this 2nd of a back-to-back much better than the Nuggets can. Jokic played 37 minutes and Murray 38 minutes for the Nuggets last night. Four of five starters for the Kings played less than 33 minutes with the only exception being Kevin Huerter and his 37 minutes.
This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Kings while it will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets. Denver used a lot of energy coming back from that 20-point deficit last night, too. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, proving they handle this spot very well. Bet the Kings Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Bucks -4 v. Bulls||Top||113-119||Loss||-110||8 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -4
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks following their first three-game losing streak of the season. It has come against a brutal schedule with road losses to Cleveland, Brooklyn and Boston, which are arguably the three best teams in the East outside of Milwaukee, so it's totally understandable.
But now the Bucks come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest, and they will obviously be highly motivated for a victory here. The Bulls have gone just 9-15 SU in their last 24 games overall and are coming off a 15-point upset home loss to the lowly Houston Rockets. They just cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after being beating by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.
Home-court advantage has meant little in this series as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The road team is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Chicago. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Chicago is 18-37 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Bucks Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Kansas +3 v. Arkansas||Top||53-55||Win||100||29 h 24 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Kansas +3
The Kansas Jayhawks are clearly excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2008. Lance Leipold did a heck of a job getting the Jayhawks to 6-6 and these players and coaches will relish this opportunity to play in the Liberty Bowl. Leipold is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and the Jayhawks will have almost all hands on deck for this game no opt-outs and no key transfers.
Arkansas lost three of its final four games to close out the season including two upset losses as favorites. They have been hit as hard as almost anyone with opt-outs and transfers leading into this bowl game, so they clearly do not care about it.
Defensive coordinator Barry Odom took the head-coaching job at UNLV. All-American LB Drew Sanders and All-American C Ricky Stromberg are sitting out for the NFL draft. Fellow stud LB Bumper Pool is out with an injury. DB Myles Slusher, TE Trey Knox (26 receptions, 296 yards, 5 TD) and WR Ketron Jackson (16, 277, 3 TD) all entered the portal. Leading WR Jadon Haselwood (59, 702, 3 TD) entered the NFL Draft and won't play. DL Isaiah Nickolls (12 starts) entered the portal. In all, the Razorbacks will be without nine starters and have roughly 23 players who are opting out or transferring.
Kansas should be able to name its score with an offense that put up 34.2 points per per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. They'll be up against an Arkansas defense that was already poor in allowing 454 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play and will now be without all of their best players on defense. Kansas' defense is bad, but I still trust them to get more stops than Arkansas in this one.
Plays against any team (Arkansas) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Kansas in the Liberty Bowl Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Tennessee v. Ole Miss UNDER 131.5||63-59||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee/Ole Miss UNDER 131.5
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team. They play slower than average and rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense. They allow just 52.7 points per game and 32.9% shooting, holding opponents to 20.7 points per game less than their season averages. They also only shoot 41.8% as a team including 33% from 3-point range.
Ole Miss ranks 250th in adjusted tempo and plays even slower than Tennessee. The Rebels rank 52nd in adjusted defense. They are holding opponents to 63.5 points per game and 40.5% shooting, limiting them to 9.7 points per game less than their season averages. They shoot just 44.6% as a team including 31.4% from 3-point range.
I expect both teams to be rusty on offense coming back from Christmas Break, but for both teams to be locked in defensively and giving big effort in this SEC opener. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vols last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rebels last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Central Florida v. Duke -3||Top||13-30||Win||100||155 h 22 m||Show|
20* UCF/Duke Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke -3
The Duke Blue Devils are excited to be here after a surprising 8-4 season in Mike Elko's first season on the job to get to a bowl for the first time since 2018. They didn't settle once they became bowl eligible. They continued playing well down the stretch winning four of their final five games with their lone loss coming by 2 at Pittsburgh as 6-point dogs. They have all hands on deck for this game with no opt-outs or key transfers.
The same cannot be said for UCF, which has a ton of opt-outs and transfers. The game the Knights cared about was the AAC Championship Game against Tulane, which they lost 45-28. They won't care at all about this game, and that is evident with all the key players they are missing.
UCF could be down to a third-string QB in Thomas Castellanos is John Rhys Plumlee cannot go because backup Mikey Keene transferred. The Knights will be without their top receiver in Ryan O'Keefe (73 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TD), their top LB in Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, their top CB in Davonte Brown and several other contributors. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams left for Arkansas.
Duke likes to run the football averaging 185 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. They will have success on the ground against a UCF defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will be missing their top DL and top LB. Duke only allows 120 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry and will be well equipped to stop a UCF offense that also relies heavily on the run at 236 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.
Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Knights are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The Blue Devils are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC opponents.
Plays against any team (UCF) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Duke in the Military Bowl Wednesday.
|12-27-22||Nuggets v. Kings +3.5||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||12 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after upset losses to the Hornets and Wizards in two of their last three games. The Kings come back highly motivated for a victory tonight and rested and ready to go coming in on three days' rest.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets after going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall including an OT win over a depleted Suns team on Christmad Day. In fact, the Nuggets have won six of those seven games at home with their lone road victory coming by a single point at Portland. They also lost by 18 at the Lakers in their other road game and are just 9-8 SU & 6-10-1 ATS on the road this season.
Denver is 0-7 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season, losing by an average of 10.3 points per game in this spot. Sacramento is 11-3 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Kings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following three consecutive games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher. The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Suns v. Grizzlies -7.5||125-108||Loss||-110||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -7.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. They are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS at home this season. They are as healthy as they have been all season right now with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup, and they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.
The Phoenix Suns are far from healthy. They will be without four of their top seven scorers tonight in Devin Booker (27.1 PPG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG), Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.4 PPG). The loss of Shamet is big because he was coming on strong in the absence of Booker, scoring 25.7 PPG in his last three games with 19 made 3-pointers.
The Grizzlies just beat the short-handed Suns 125-100 on the road as 2.5-point favorites two games back. They were then upset by the Warriors on Christmas Day, so they won't be feeling fat and happy here. They will take the Suns seriously and put them away as they return home highly motivated to bounce back from that loss to Golden State.
Memphis is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 10 points or more. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after going under the total. Memphis is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 home games. Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Lakers v. Magic -3||129-110||Loss||-110||9 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -3
The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar right now. They are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have won eight of their last nine games SU with their lone loss coming by a single point at Atlanta. But they don't get the respect other teams get due to their 13-21 record overall.
Now they take on the struggling Los Angeles Lakers who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and just not a very good team without Anthony Davis, who remains out. The Lakers don't play any defense allowing 124 or more points in all four losses while allowing 118.0 points per game on the season. Now they have to take on a Magic team that is clicking offensively scoring 111 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall.
The Lakers are 2-12 ATS as road underdogs this season. The Magic are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 130 points or more. Orlando is 10-1 ATS following a win this season. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Orlando has a big rest advantage playing on three days' rest while the Lakers had to play in Dallas on Christmas Day and will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. Take the Magic Tuesday.
|12-27-22||East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina OVER 62||Top||53-29||Win||100||145 h 34 m||Show|
20* ECU/Coastal Carolina Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 62
Star QB Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game for Coastal Carolina before transferring to likely Auburn, where he'll follow Hugh Freeze. It just hasn't been announced yet where he's going. But first, McCall clearly wants to finish what he started here at Coastal Carolina.
McCalle completing 69.1% of his passes for 2,633 yards with a 24-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season and makes all the difference for their offense. He has also rushed for 183 yards and five scores. He missed a couple games at the end of the season with an injured ankle before returning for the Sun Belt Championship Game. And now he's had 23 days in between games to rest and recover even more and should be 100% for this one.
In the two games without McCall, the Chanticleers averaged just 16.5 points and 276.5 yards per game, which shows how much he means to this offense when you consider they average 29.1 points per game and 413 yards per game on the season with those two games really bringing down the averages. Coastal Carolina can't stop anyone, allowing 30.1 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They allowed 46 points per game in their final two games against James Madison and Troy.
East Carolina also has an explosive, balanced offense behind senior QB Holton Ahlers. They average 30.8 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play with 170 rushing and 288 passing. Ahlers is completing 67.1% of his passes for 3,408 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 134 yards and five scores. RB Mitchell has 1,325 rushing yards and 13 scores and should have a monster game against this Coastal Carolina defense.
East Carolina gave up 42 points and 515 yards to Houston and 46 points and 575 yards to Temple in their final two games this season. McCall will have a big game against this defense that is going in the wrong direction. Coastal Carolina also has some opt outs on its already porous defense. DE Josaiah Stewart (10 TFL) and CB's Manny Stokes and Zxaequan Reeves have transferred.
Both teams are decent against the run and terrible against the pass. ECU gives up 300 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt, while Coastal allows 282 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt. Both teams will throw the ball more than usual to take advantage of the opposing defenses' weaknesses, which also favors the OVER. The weather looks good for a shootout too with temps nearing 40's, no wind and no precipitation Tuesday in Birmingham. This total is too low. Bet the OVER in the Birmingham Bowl Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern -3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||21-23||Loss||-110||138 h 45 m||Show|
20* GA Southern/Buffalo Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern -3.5
Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo are 6-6 this season but they are not created equal. Georgia Southern is the much better of these two teams. It's less than a five hour drive for fans from Statesboro, GA to Montgomery, AL, and fans and players alike will be excited for their first bowl games under first-year head coach Clay Helton. They gutted out a 51-48 win over a very good Appalachian State team as a home underdog in the regular season finale to earn their bowl berth.
Helton turning this triple-option team into a pass-happy team and getting to six wins was one of the best coaching jobs in the country. Georgia Southern put up 33.7 points per game and 469 yards per game including 327 passing per game. Former Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had a great season with his new team and is loaded with weapons on the outside with three receivers that finished with at least 700 receiving yards, plus a pair of talented RB's that both averaged 5.5 YPC or more. Vantrease will be motivated to beat his former team.
Buffalo is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams there is. The Bulls went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games and needed a fortunate one-point win over lowly Akron and their third-string QB in the final just to get into a bowl. Buffalo is actually getting outgained 4.9 yards per play on offense to 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season. Georgia Southern averages 6.2 yards per play on offense and has the way superior unit. Buffalo does have the edge on defense but not by much, and they give up 5.1 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass.
I haven't even mentioned Buffalo's injuries and opt outs. Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Al-Jay Henderson, who combined for 901 rushing yards this year, did not play in the regular season finale against Akron. Receiver Jamari Gassett (28 catches) and TE Trevor Borland entered the portal, as did S Keshawn Cobb (66 tackles, 1 INT). Georgia Southern is expected to hand all hands on deck for this one, showing how much this game means to these players.
The forecast looks good for the pass-happy Eagles with temps in the 40's, no precipitation and no wind Tuesday. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a home win against a conference opponent, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent at 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Georgia Southern Tuesday.
|12-26-22||Hornets v. Blazers OVER 237||Top||113-124||Push||0||11 h 21 m||Show|
20* Hornets/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 237
La'Melo Ball just returned for the Charlotte Hornets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup. They have combined for 231 or more points in seven consecutive games now, including 264 with the Lakers last time out, and they should easily top this 237-point total against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.
The Portland Trail Blazers are a potent offensive team with the trio of Lillard, Simons and Grant all healthy and that's the case right now. They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last 10 games overall, but they have also allowed 111 or more points in 15 of their last 18 games overall so they are not a very good defensive team. Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Portland ranks 20th.
The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The OVER is 10-1 in Hornets last 11 games when playing on two days' rest. The OVER is 19-7 in Hornets last 26 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in Blazers last six home games. The OVER is 15-6-1 in Blazers last 22 games when playing on two days' rest. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-26-22||Jazz v. Spurs OVER 235.5||122-126||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Spurs OVER 235.5
The San Antonio Spurs are fully healthy for the first time basically all season. The Utah Jazz are fully healthy with the exception of Kelly Olynyk. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now given their health and the way they play.
The Spurs rank 8th in the NBA in pace while the Jazz rank 12th. The Jazz rank 5th in offensive efficiency and are a great offensive team. Both teams are terrible defensively with the Spurs ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency and the Jazz ranking 25th.
The Spurs are coming off two very high scoring games with 246 combined points against the Magic and 243 combined points against the Pelicans. The Jazz have seen 232 and 237 combined points in their last two games coming in.
The OVER is 27-9 in the last 36 meetings in San Antonio. The OVER is 6-1 in Spurs last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in Jazz last eight games when playing on three or more days' rest. Both teams are rested and ready to get up and down the floor at a hectic pace tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-26-22||Chargers -3 v. Colts||Top||20-3||Win||100||178 h 41 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -3
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming up clutch when these games matter the most here down the stretch. They have won two consecutive games against fellow playoff contenders in Miami and Tennessee and were more dominant than the final scores showed in both of those games. They outgained the Dolphins by 213 yards in a 23-17 victory and outgained the Titans by 81 yards in a 17-14 victory.
The headlines are that Justin Herbert finally has his to star receivers healthy in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which is huge and true, but the real substance of this team is what the defense has done the last two weeks. They held Miami's high-octane attack to just 17 points and 219 total yards, and they held Derrick Henry and Tennessee's rushing attack in check while limiting them to 14 points and 284 total yards. Now they finally have a defense to go with one of the most talented offenses in the league.
While the Chargers have a lot to play for tied for 6th in the AFC with the Dolphins and only one game ahead of the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts have nothing to play for at this point. They just lost RB Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending injury and he means everything to their offense. They have decided to go with Nick Foles over Matt Ryan for this game, and it won't make any difference as the offensive line is terrible, and there are no proven weapons on this offense now without Taylor.
The Colts have to be gutted after blowing the largest lead in NFL history, losing 36-39 (OT) to the Vikings last week after opening with a 33-0 lead on the heels of two defensive touchdowns. Taylor went out after getting a big lead and the offense couldn't sustain drives without him. The defense has to be gassed after spending basically the entire second half on the field. They gave up 518 total yards to the Vikings in defeat. I don't trust their mental state right now as Jeff Saturday is a dead man walking, and these players know it.
I grabbed a good early number on the Chargers -3 Monday knowing this line would move in their favor, once again beating another line move. I obviously don't like it as much at anything more than -3. I would downgrade it to a 20* at -3.5 to -4.5, so adjust your best accordingly. This is why it's important to get a long-term subscription instead of buying plays on the day of games so you can get the best numbers, too.
Plays against any team (Indianapolis) - after going over the total by 35 points or more total in their last three games, a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Indianapolis. Bet the Chargers Monday.
|12-26-22||Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 235.5||93-113||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 235.5
Two great offensive teams that like to play fast square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pacers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace while the Pelicans rank 11th. The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 21st in defensive efficiency.
The Pelicans are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with combined scores of 253, 243, 247, 232, 261, 221, 253 and 245 points. These teams met earlier this season on November 7th with the Pacers winning 129-122 for 251 combined points.
Indiana is 42-21 OVER in its last 63 games with a total of 230 or higher. New Orleans is 40-17 OVER in its last 57 home games following four or more consecutive OVERS. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-26-22||Nets v. Cavs -2||Top||125-117||Loss||-110||8 h 21 m||Show|
20* Nets/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland -2
The Cleveland Cavaliers had won five straight games prior to getting upset by the Raptors at home last time out. Now I think it's a great 'buy low' spot on the Cavaliers off that rare upset home loss.
After all, the Cavaliers are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. I think that was a letdown and sandwich spot for the Cavaliers as they were coming off the 114-106 win over the Bucks and had the Nets on deck. The Nets will now get their full attention off that upset loss to the Raptors.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nets, who are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall against a very soft schedule. They will meet their match tonight in the Cavaliers and this winning streak will come to an end. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to this streak.
Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland. The Nets are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cleveland is 5-0-2 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|12-25-22||Grizzlies -6 v. Warriors||Top||109-123||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6
The Golden State Warriors are just atrocious without Stephen Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG), their top two scorers. They lost their last two games without them by 36 at New York and by 30 at Brooklyn. It will be more of the same today against the Memphis Grizzlies.
While the Warriors are banged up right now, the Grizzlies are back to full strength with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup. We saw what they were capable of fully healthy as they blasted the Suns by 25 on the road last time out to improve to 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all eight wins coming by 8 points or more.
They are phenomenal defensively, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 105 points or fewer. The Warriors have allowed 118 or more points in five of their last six including 143 to Brooklyn and 132 to New York in their last two games. They give up 117.9 points per game on the season.
Memphis will have no problem kicking Golden State while they are down after getting eliminated by them in the playoffs last season. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after leading their previous game by 15 points or more at halftime against an opponent after a game with a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.
|12-25-22||Lakers +7.5 v. Mavs||115-124||Loss||-110||6 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +7.5
The Dallas Mavericks are just 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games overall and have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season. In their 33 games this season, they have just 7 wins by more than 7 points. Getting 7.5 points with the Los Angeles Lakers is tremendous value on Christmas Day.
The Lakers are without Anthony Davis but they are healthy everywhere else. They come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games, so it's a good time to 'buy low' on them. The Mavericks are without two key pieces in Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith.
I also think it's a bad spot for the Mavericks, who will be returning home following a four-game road trip and there will be a ton of distractions to deal with at home especially with it being Christmas. It will also be the 10th game in 17 days for the Mavericks, so they will be playing on tired legs.
Dallas is 0-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season. The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Dallas is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Lakers Sunday.
|12-25-22||Packers v. Dolphins OVER 46.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||146 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Dolphins OVER 46.5
I locked in this great number on Monday before the Packers played as it was available at pretty much every book. It reopened higher, so we got a great number here. I would downgrade it to a 15* play at anything above 49 at this point, but I'm glad myself and my long-term clients got this great number early. It's just another reason you should sign up long-term to get the best numbers, too, rather than bet on the day of the game. I consistently beat the line moves, which puts us at a big advantage on the books.
But let's get into the breakdown of this game. With some terrible weather forecast across the country, this won't be one of them. Temperatures will be in the 50's in Miami Sunday with light winds and a small chance of precipitation. It will be balmy compared to the rest of the country and it will help us cash in this OVER ticket.
Maimi is a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. But they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and 409.7 yards per game in their last three games. They are decimated by injuries on defense, especially in the secondary. If they don't get pressure teams consistently find big plays against them right now.
The Packers are in the best shape on offense they have been all season. Aaron Rodgers has his top five receivers and his top two running backs all healthy right now. He is no longer wearing a wrap on his thumb and that's a non-issue at this point. They basically just scored 31 points on the Rams as they kneeled it at the 1-yard line to finish the game after scoring 28 points against the Bears and 33 points against the Eagles in their previous two games.
We've seen this Green Bay defense shredded against the best offenses this season, and Miami classifies as one of the best offenses. The Packers allowed 27 points to the Bills, 28 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans and 40 to the Eagles in recent weeks. Miami should be able to do whatever it wants against this Green Bay defense both on the ground and through the air.
The OVER is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in the second half of the season vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams averaging at least 5.65 yards per play. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-24-22||Raiders v. Steelers -2||10-13||Win||100||67 h 22 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Steelers AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -2
The Pittsburgh Steelers were already plan on honoring Franco Harris on the 50th anniversary of the "Immaculate Reception" this weekend. This game will mean even more to players, coaches and fans alike now that Harris passed away earlier this week. This is going to be a surreal atmosphere for a Pittsburgh game and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal.
We're backing a Steelers team playing some very good football coming into this one. They have won three of their last four games overall while outgaining all four opponents with their lone loss coming when they committed three turnovers in the red zone in a 2-point loss to the Ravens. They outgained the Panthers by 116 yards last week in a 24-16 road victory.
Forecasts are calling for single-digit temperatures and 15 MPH winds in Pittsburgh Sunday. I'll gladly back the blue collar team used to these conditions over the dome team in the Las Vegas Raiders who are used to warm weather. Derek Carr is 0-5 with 5 interceptions and has never thrown for more than 220 yards in games with a temperature of less than 37 degrees in his career. I'll also back the best unit on the field, which is this Pittsburgh defense that is allowing only 16.3 points per game and 278.5 yards per game over its last four games. This great run defensively has coincided with the return of TJ Watt, who means everything to this team.
The Raiders are getting too much respect for a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run against a very easy schedule of the Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams and Patriots. They got a miracle last week against the Patriots to avoid blowing yet another double-digit lead with one of the dumbest plays you will ever see on the final play of the game. Their luck runs out this week against a motivated Steelers team that simply will want it more.
The Raiders are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season. Las Vegas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. AFC North opponents. The Raiders are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Las Vegas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. I trust Pittsburgh a lot more in this spot laying a short number at home. Take the Steelers Saturday.
|12-24-22||Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State OVER 48||Top||25-23||Push||0||74 h 46 m||Show|
20* MTSU/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 48
San Diego State has had its best offense in years in the second half of the season. They fired their offensive coordinator after six games and replaced QB Burmeister with QB Mayden, who has made all the difference for their offense.
Mayden is completing 62.9% of his passes for 1,721 yards with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 205 yards and three scores in basically just half a season. It's his dual-threat ability that makes the difference, plus he's a much better passer. They put up 28 points on Fresno, 43 on San Jose and 34 on New Mexico in three of their last five games.
Middle Tennessee has no problem getting in a shootout. They boast an offense that puts up 29.2 points per game including 267 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows 28.1 points per game including 291 passing yards per game. You can pass on this San Diego State defense as they give up 207 passing yards per game and haven't faced many passing attacks as good as Middle Tennessee. They gave up 394 passing yards to Jake Haener and Fresno State for comparison.
The weather looks good for a shootout in Hawaii with temps in the 70's, light winds and no precipitation. 10 of Middle Tennessee's 12 games this season have seen 51 or more combined points. The OVER is 14-3 in MTSU's last 17 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last seven games following a win. The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Raiders last five bowl games. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-24-22||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||34-40||Win||100||113 h 47 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 46
I cashed in the Cowboys/Jaguars OVER last week in a game that saw 74 combined points, and I'm back on the OVER in a Cowboys game this week. They are a dead nuts OVER team right now. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven consecutive games now while also gaining at least 385 yards in all seven games. Their defense has slipped down the stretch, allowing at least 19 points in six of their last seven games overall.
This total has been bet down from 50.5 to 46 now with the news that the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts. But Gardner Minshew is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and the Eagles will still hang a big number with him under center. The game plan will change to be more pass-happy, but that also benefits the OVER.
The Eagles are averaging 37 points per game in their last four games overall and have ample weapons to make Minshew's job much easier both in the passing game and the running game. Dallas Goedert could make his return at tight end this week, too. Minshew will be up against a banged up Dallas secondary that will be missing several key players, plus LB Vander Esch is out with a shoulder injury suffered last week against the Jaguars.
The Eagles also have key injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary, most notably DE Robert Quinn who they traded for out with a knee injury. So all the key playmakers for both teams are healthy right now with the exception of Hurts. And most of the notable injuries are all on defense for both teams.
I don't love playing overs in division games, but this one is different. Cooper Rush was the quarterback of the Cowboys in that first meeting, while Hurts was the quarterback for the Eagles. These are two completely different offenses with Dak Prescott and Minshew running the show, and that element of surprise on a short week will favor the offenses over the defenses. Plus, in a weekend filled with terrible weather everywhere, this game will be played in a dome in perfect scoring conditions.
I also don't think there will be as much intensity for this division rivalry as there would have been if it meant more. The Eagles basically have the NFC East locked up only needing one more win in their final three games, while the Cowboys are basically locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. Dallas beat Philadelphia 51-26 at home last season for 77 combined points. Three of the last four meetings have seen 54 or more combined points with the lone exception being that Cooper Rush game.
The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The OVER is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in Eagles last eight games overall. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They just gave up 503 yards and 7.3 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-24-22||Commanders +7 v. 49ers||20-37||Loss||-110||63 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7
I have personally cashed in the 49ers three times during their current 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run. I won with them over Tampa Bay two weeks ago and last week over Seattle. I have had a good beat on this team. But now it's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers as I think this is a terrible spot for them, and you're starting to pay a tax to back them this week.
The 49ers just clinched the NFC West with their 21-13 win at Seattle last week. Now they are in a letdown spot as there's not much for them to play for the rest of the way other than playoff seeding. I could see them losing this game outright as a result, let alone covering this 7-point spread. Look for Kyle Shanahan to manage injured players the rest of the way and to not force them into action, meaning a lot of backups will be on the field for them.
While the 49ers don't need this game, the Washington Commanders need this game like blood after losing to the New York Giants last week. They are now just 0.5 games ahead of both teh Seahawks and Lions for the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC. I know I'm going to get a max motivated Commanders team this week, and that should be enough to cover this spread.
The Commanders are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a lot more healthy than the 49ers. They should get CB St.-Juste back this week as well as DE Chase Young, who they've been waiting to get back all season. The Commanders will still be fresh after having a bye week prior to that Giants game as well, which negates the 49ers' rest advantage after playing last Thursday.
Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle here with a 37.5-point total, so points are at a premium and worth more. Getting 7 points with the Commanders is too much this week, and we are only getting them because the refs beat them and they beat themselves last week against the Giants. It's time to 'buy low' on the Commanders now.
It's a Washington team that is 6-2-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Commanders have outgained six of their last eight opponents while only getting outgained by 18 and 38 yards in the other two contests. In fact, the Commanders haven't lost by more than one score in any of their last 10 games, so they just have a knack of playing in close games. That makes for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 7-point spread. Roll with the Commanders Saturday.
|12-24-22||Saints v. Browns -3||Top||17-10||Loss||-117||122 h 17 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns -3
Deshaun Watson led the Cleveland Browns to a 13-3 home victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week. It was a big weight lifted off his shoulders, and certainly a much friendlier atmosphere playing at home. Well, he and the Browns will be back home this week where they have been at their best all season, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game.
Cleveland should be more than a 3-point home favorite over New Orleans, which has been terrible on the road this season. The Saints are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season and losing by 6.0 points per game on average. This won't be just another road game for them, either.
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 12 degrees and 30 MPH winds with a 50% chance of precipitation. I'll gladly back the Browns, who are used to these conditions, over the dome team in the Saints that aren't build for these conditions.
Due to the forecast, this game will be played on the ground, and I trust Cleveland's ground game over that of New Orleans. Nick Chubb is a go this week and leads a Cleveland rushing attack that ranks 5th in the NFL at 149.0 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.7 yards per carry. Compare that to New Orleans, which ranks just 21st in rushing offense at 111.3 yards per game and 18th at 4.3 yards per carry. Both teams are pretty much dead even against the run, too.
The injury news is good for the Browns with DE Garrett, CB Ward, TE Njoku, WR Cooper and RB Chubb all listed as probable. The injury news for the Saints is not so good with WR Olave and WR Landry both out for this one. Andy Dalton will be without his two favorite targets. It will be a factor when the Browns take an early lead and the Saints have to try and throw to get back in the game.
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS after playing a home game this season. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry in the second half of the season. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Cleveland. Take the Browns Saturday.
|12-24-22||Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||122 h 16 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Seattle Seahawks this week. They have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall despite being favored in three of those games and not being more than a 3-point underdog once. They go from being overvalued to undervalued now as 10-point dogs. They haven't been double-digit dogs all season until now.
The spot is a good one with the Seahawks coming in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Chiefs are coming off an overtime game against the Houston Texans and off three consecutive road games overall. I'm sure the Chiefs have a lot to deal with back at home with it being Christmas after being on the road the last three weeks, so they won't be fully focused for this one.
That's nothing new for the Chiefs, who are having a terrible time putting teams away. They lost by 3 at Cincinnati, only beat the Broncos by 6 and only beat the Texans by 6 in OT after being 14-point favorites. The Seahawks will never be out of this game because the Chiefs cannot stop anyone, allowing 24 or more points in four of their last five games overall.
After playing four tough defenses in their last five games in the Bucs, Rams, Panthers and 49ers, the Seahawks should get right offensively here. They have still scored 24 or more points in six of their last eight games overall. Kenneth Walker should have a big game on the ground as he has extra time to heal his ankle after returning last week. Geno Smith will dice up this Kansas City secondary.
No question the Chiefs are going to get their points, but they aren't looking to run up the score. They just want to get in and get out with a win, which is what they have been doing for the majority of the season. The Chiefs have only three wins all season by more than 10 points.
Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU win. Pete Carroll is 19-4 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Andy Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games following three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as a head coach having never covered in this situation. Bet the Seahawks Saturday.
|12-23-22||Hornets v. Lakers OVER 235.5||Top||134-130||Win||100||21 h 1 m||Show|
20* Hornets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 235.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and are a terrible defensive team. They allow 117.3 points per game on the season and have allowed 116 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.
The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team, too. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 9th in pace, this despite playing without La'Melo Ball for most of the season. But Ball is back now so they will be playing even faster and will be more efficient on offense with him.
The Lakers have combined for 234 or more points with their opponents in eight consecutive games. The Hornets and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in six consecutive games. They have allowed 119 or more points in nine consecutive games.
The Lakers are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games vs. NBA Southeast division teams. The OVER is 11-3 in Hornets 14 games as road underdogs this season. The OVER is 20-8 in Hornets last 28 road games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Wizards v. Kings -8.5||125-111||Loss||-105||21 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -8.5
The Washington Wizards are 1-11 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Now they are in the toughest spot any NBA team has been in all season tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in the altitude in Utah last night. They will also be playing their 5th road game in 7 days tonight.
The Wizards will have nothing left in the tank for the Kings, who will test their tired legs by playing at the 5th-fasted pace in the NBA this season. It will also be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Sacramento, so they are fresh and ready to go. The Kings are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall and one of the most improved teams in the NBA. Six of those seven wins have come by 9 points or more, which would cover this 8.5-point spread.
The Wizards are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight Friday games. Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on one day of rest. The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Sacramento is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington. Roll with the Kings Friday.
|12-23-22||Grizzlies v. Suns UNDER 226.5||Top||125-100||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have been dominant defensively since getting the best defender in the NBA in Jaren Jackson Jr. back from injury. They have allowed 105 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. But they have struggled on offense on the road of late, scoring 91 points against the Nuggets, 109 against the Thunder and 101 against the Timberwolves in three of their last four road games.
The Phoenix Suns are missing too many players right now to be trusted to score too many points, but they bring it defensively almost every night. The Suns rank 11th in defensive efficiency while the Grizzlies rank 5th. The Suns are without leading scorer Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG), which also rank Top 5 in scoring for them.
Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games after winning four or five of its last six games. Phoenix is 26-10-1 UNDER in its last 37 games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Phoenix. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Grizzlies -2.5 v. Suns||125-100||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing to the Thunder and Nuggets to open this road trip, which followed up a 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS run. Look for them to get back to how they were playing before dropping those two games tonight.
Of course, it helps that the Suns are missing three of their top five scores. The Suns are without Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) tonight. They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without these three.
The Suns are really struggling amidst all these injuries as they are going through their worst stretch of the season right now. They are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off an upset home loss to the Washington Wizards as 7-point favorites. That's a Wizards team that is 1-11 in their last 12 games overall with their lone victory against Phoenix.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Phoenix) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent that is off a road loss are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Memphis is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a road loss by 10 points or more. The Grizzlies are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.
|12-23-22||Bucks v. Nets OVER 225.5||100-118||Loss||-110||18 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Nets OVER 225.5
The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team right now. The OVER is 6-1 in their last seven games overall and we've seen 235 or more combined points in six of those seven games. That makes this 225.5-point total very low for a game involving the Nets tonight.
The Bucks have both Giannis and Jrue Holiday back healthy and are only missing Khris Middleton, who they have played without for most of the season. They have scored 123 or more points in three of their last five games overall while allowing at least 111 points in four of their last five.
The Nets and Bucks have combined for at least 226 points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 6-1 in Nets last seven games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 226||118-117||Loss||-110||18 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 226
I love this spot for an UNDER bet between the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 3rd meeting in 10 days between the Knicks and Bulls.
In their first meeting on December 14th, the Bulls and Knicks combined for 234 points at the end of regulation before going to OT. That familiarity took its toll in the 2nd meeting on December 16th with the Bulls and Knicks combining for just 205 points. And now we have a 226-point total for the 3rd meeting, which is way too high.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and the Bulls and Knicks have combined for 213 or fewer points in seven of those nine meetings. The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 games overall. Chicago is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Clippers +3.5 v. 76ers||114-119||Loss||-110||18 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title and for good reason with their star power and depth. Well, they were injured for most of the season, but now we are seeing what they are capable of when healthy, especially when having Kawhi Leonard on the court.
The Clippers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have won five of their last six. The only game they lost was in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation when they sat Leonard. Now the Clippers will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days and have all hands on deck tonight. They should not be underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.
It's time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against a very soft schedule. The only decent teams they played were the Kings and Raptors, and they needed OT to beat the Raptors and OT to beat the Lakers. The other wins came against the Hornets, Warriors without their stars and Pistons. This is a huge step up in class for the 76ers tonight.
The Clippers are 9-1 ATS following a non-conference game this season. Wrong team favored here. Roll with the Clippers Friday.
|12-23-22||Spurs v. Magic OVER 226||Top||113-133||Win||100||18 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Spurs/Magic OVER 226
The Orlando Magic are healthy and playing well right now, especially on offense. They have gone 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and have scored at least 111 points in seven of those eight games.
The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team. They play fast and ply no defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season. They allow 119.7 points per game and opponents shoot 50.4% against them. The Magic rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, too.
The Spurs just lost 117-126 at New Orleans last night for 243 combined points, and that was a Pelicans team missing Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. The Spurs didn't have leading scorer Keldon Johnson (21.1 PPG) for that game, but he is expected to return tonight and the Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season now.
The OVER is 5-1 in Spurs last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Magic last five games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. San Antonio is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Wake Forest -125 v. Missouri||Top||27-17||Win||100||48 h 16 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest ML -125
Let's start by naming the players that Missouri will be missing for this game. They will be without their leading receiver and top playmaker in Dominic Lovett, who has 56 receptions for 846 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.1 yards per receptions. Their next-leading receiver has 36 receptions for 403 yards, so he will be missed for a Missouri offense that already isn't very good.
The Tigers will also be without arguably their three best defenders who are all opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. DE McGuire (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks), DD Coleman (39 tackles, 6 sacks) and S Manueal (47 tackles, 4 sacks) are all out. They are going to struggle to get pressure on Sam Hartman and this explosive Wake Forest offense, especially without those two defensive ends.
Speaking of Hartman, he has opted to play in this game, and they only lose a backup RB and a starting cornerback to the transfer portal with zero opt-outs. Hartman has a 35-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season and wants to finish what he started here at Wake Forest, and his team will have his back Friday night. He leads a Wake Forest offense averaging 36.8 points per game on the season.
Compare that to Missouri, which averages just 25.5 points per game, and it's easy to see which team has the better offense. And now QB Brady Cook (12 TD/7 INT) won't have his favorite receiver in Lovett. This Missouri defense is good allowing 25.0 points per game, but not having their top three defenders will make things a lot more difficult. Wake Forest has an average defense at 29.3 points per game allowed, but their job is much easier this week preparing for this hapless Missouri offense.
We are getting great value on Wake Forest after going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its final five games, which is the only reason this line is close to a PK. But the Demon Deacons are 7-5 this season and better than that record as four of the five losses came by single-digits including three by 6 points or fewer. The only exception was when they committed eight turnovers against Louisville to give the game away.
Wake Forest is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 31 points or more in three consecutive games. Plays on any team (Wake Forest) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in December games are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 December games.
Dave Clawson is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Wake Forest. Clawson is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Demon Deacons. Clawson stated he was excited to be playing an SEC team in their bowl and will be playing that motivational angle. I trust Clawson and Hartman to get the troops ready and put an exclamation point on their season this week against an overmatched Missouri team that is missing too many key players. Bet Wake Forest on the Money Line Friday.
|12-22-22||Southern Miss +8.5 v. UNLV||63-74||Loss||-110||10 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8.5
Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Golden Eagles are 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss by 2 points. They are also 8-1 ATS in their lined games.
Amazingly, Southern Miss has done its best work in true road games this season. The Golden Eagles are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in true road games with an upset win at Vanderbilt by 12 as 16-point dogs, an upset win at Liberty by 4 as 11.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Lamar by 26 as 13.5-point favorites.
This is a terrible spot for UNLV. They just had their 10-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 73-75 home loss to San Francisco as 6-point favorites. I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because they tend to be flat their next game out since they aren't trying to keep a streak alive. It's the kind of loss that could easily beat the Rebels twice, let alone having to win by 9 points or more to beat us tonight.
The Golden Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Rebels won't have much of a home-court advantage at all tonight with a game this close to Christmas, and their home court is being factored into this line too much, especially considering how good the Golden Eagles have been on the road. Take Southern Miss Thursday.
|12-22-22||Wizards v. Jazz OVER 229||Top||112-120||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Jazz OVER 229
The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 5th in offensive efficiency this season and 25th in defensive efficiency. They face a Washington team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and has been much better on offense when both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis are healthy.
Well, both of these teams are fully healthy right now with the exception of Collin Sexton for the Jazz. But he has been out for a while now and the Jazz have continued playing in high-scoring games. Indeed, the Jazz have seen 220 or more combined points in each of their last 19 games.
The Wizards are starting to feel it on offense scoring 113 or more points in three of their last four games as well as 111 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. But they have allowed 110 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games overall.
These teams played earlier this season on November 12th with the Wizards winning 121-112 for 233 combined points. Utah is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more. Washington is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games vs. Northwest Division opponents. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Wizards last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-22-22||Jaguars +2 v. Jets||19-3||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Jets AFC ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2
We have two teams headed in opposite directions and two quarterbacks headed in opposite direction in this matchup Thursday night. I'll side with the team playing with confidence and with the better quarterback over the team that is slumping and doesn't believe in its quarterback.
Don't look now but the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Ravens, Titans and Cowboys to pull within one game of first place of the Titans in the AFC South. They host the Titans in Week 18, so they are very much alive to win this division now and believing they can.
A lot of that belief comes from the performance of the offense and Lawrence. He has a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last six games and is completing 66% of his passes for 3,520 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the season. He is also a dual-threat with 239 rushing yards and 4.9 per carry with four scores. The Jaguars are loaded with weapons at receiver for him on the outside, and they have a steady rushing attack with Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 917 yards and 5.0 per carry on the season.
Zach Wilson is completing just 54.9% of his passes for 1,596 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 101 yards and 3.7 per carry with one score. He is only playing right now because Mike White is hurt, and it's a big downgrade for them at quarterback. They had built up some momentum with White but that's gone now.
The Jets do have the better defense, but I don't think that's enough to make up for the advantage the Jaguars have on offense. The weather will be bad for this game with a 100% chance of precipitation and 20 MPH winds. So the team that runs the ball better and takes care of the football better is likely going to win, and I trust Lawrence over Wilson as far as turnovers go.
The Jets haven't been able to run the ball very well since they lost Breece Hall at running back. In their last five games, the Jets were held to 59 yards on 23 carries by the Patriots, 76 yards on 22 carries by the Bills and 50 yards on 22 carries by the Lions. They only had success against the terrible Bears and Vikings defenses. The Jaguars just rushed for 192 yards on the Cowboys last week. They rank 6th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per carry while the Jets rank 21st at 4.3 yards per carry. The Jets are only slightly better against the run defensively allowing 4.1 per carry compared to 4.2 per carry for Jacksonville.
The Jets have lost three straight and four of their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the Bears who were without Justin Fields. Wrong team favored here. Take the Jaguars Thursday.
|12-22-22||Air Force +6.5 v. Baylor||Top||30-15||Win||100||210 h 34 m||Show|
20* Air Force/Baylor Armed Forces Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +6.5
Air Force went 9-3 this season with all three losses by 7 points or fewer. That's how close they were to a perfect 12-0 season. They were probably the best team in the Mountain West, but it didn't play out that way as they came up just short of making the title game. But the Falcons finished strong winning their final four games and will be very much looking forward to facing a Power 5 team in Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.
I don't think Baylor wants to be here at all. Remember, the Bears won the Big 12 last season and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl to finish 12-2. Now they are just 6-6 this season and coming off three consecutive losses to finish the regular season to Kansas State, TCU and Texas. They aren't going to enjoy preparing for the triple-option in practice, and I don't think they are going to be motivated at all to beat Air Force as this is a big step down in quality of bowl compared to a year ago.
Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was fired at the end of the regular season and safety Devin Neal (41 tackles) opted to transfer. This is a Baylor defense that slipped big time this season allowing 26.6 points per game and 370.3 yards per game. And I give the edge to Air Force on defense, allowing just 13.3 points per game and 255.8 yards per game on the season.
This Air Force offense is actually pretty explosive for a triple-option offense. They average 6.1 yards per play and 5.6 yards per carry on the season behind 336 rushing yards per game. This Baylor defense allowed 29 or more points in four consecutive games to finish the season and will struggle to defend the triple-option. They allowed 184 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games as well.
Plays on neutral field underdogs (Air Force) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possession minutes per game are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
Finally, the forecast is calling for nearly 30 MPH winds and 20 degrees, so that clearly favors the Falcons and their triple-option and really takes away Baylor's passing attack. Service Academy's are 70% ATS since 1990 in bowls and always show up, while Baylor has questionable motivation. Take Air Force Thursday.
|12-22-22||Yale -13.5 v. Monmouth||76-44||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Yale -13.5
The Yale Bulldogs are one of the best mid-majors in the country. They are 9-3 this season with their three losses all coming on the road to the three best teams they have played in Colorado by 3 as 9-point dogs, Butler by 10 as 6.5-point dogs and Kentucky by 10 as 16-point dogs. The Bulldogs have won the majority of their games in blowouts with seven of their nine wins coming by 13 points or more.
Now they face one of the worst teams in the country in Monmouth. The Hawks are 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS this season and getting outscored by 21.9 points per game. Nine of their 11 losses have come by 15 points or more, so it's not asking much of Yale to cover this 13.5-point spread. They are coming off a 34-point home loss to Charlotte.
The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Yale Thursday.
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 56||Top||23-44||Win||100||187 h 5 m||Show|
20* South Alabama/WKU New Orleans Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 56
Western Kentucky starting QB Austin Reed (4,247 yards, 36 TD's) originally entered the transfer portal and this total dropped big time from the 61.5-point opener. But Reed has decided to stay with the program and will play in this bow game, and the books have failed to adjust it back up to where it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER 56 here.
Reed leads a Western Kentucky offense that is averaging 35.8 points, 484 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. The Hilltoppers will be up against one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt in the South Alabama Jaguars. They average 31.9 points per game, 426 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. They have scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. WKU has scored at least 27 points in 10 of its 13 games. Good chance both teams get to at least 28 in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER.
Conditions will obviously be perfect for a shootout in this New Orleans Bowl with it being played inside the Caesars Superdome. The OVER is 11-3 in WKU's last 14 games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in WKU's lat six games after winning four or five of its last six games. The OVER is 24-9 in WKU's last 33 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. The OVER is 5-1 in Jaguars last six non-conference games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Blazers -4 v. Thunder||98-101||Loss||-110||13 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -4
The Portland Trail Blazers will be out for revenge from a 121-123 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday. Now they get to face the Thunder here two days later and don't have to wait long to get their revenge. I expect them to blow the Thunder out of the building tonight.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in the first half of the season are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 58-22 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.
Plays home road favorites (Portland) - revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-27 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. I always look to back teams that lost the first meeting in these quick rematch situations because they are the more motivated team. Plus, they haven't adjusted the spread as Portland is once again a 4-point favorite just as it was on Monday. Take the Blazers Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Blazers v. Thunder OVER 234||98-101||Loss||-110||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234
Both the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder are dead nuts OVER teams right now. They just combined for 244 points on Monday and will be playing in a rematch here. It's not like they shot lights out either with the Blazers shooting 50% and the Thunder 45.5% for the game.
The Blazers have now scored at least 116 points in seven of their last nine games overall. They have allowed at least 111 points in 14 of their last 16 games overall. As long as Lillard, Simons and Grant are all on the court at the same time they are going to be an OVER team, and all three are healthy right now.
Oklahoma City has embraced an up-tempo style this season as they rank 4th in the NBA in pace. As long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy and running the show, they are an OVER team as well. They have allowed at least 110 points in 10 consecutive games coming in.
Portland is 8-1 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The OVER is 6-0 in Blazers last six games playing on one day of rest. The OVER is 10-3 in Thunder last 13 home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Magic v. Rockets OVER 223||Top||116-110||Win||100||12 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Rockets OVER 223
The Orlando Magic have gotten a lot healthier of late and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. They have scored at least 111 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 6-1 during this stretch.
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 11th in pace this season and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Magic also aren't a very good defensive team ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.
These teams met earlier this season with the Rockets winning 134-127 for 261 combined points. The OVER is now 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 224 or more points in all four. In fact, these teams have combined for at least 222 points in each of their last seven meetings, so this 223-point total is very low given their head-to-head history.
They have averaged 234.3 combined points in their last seven meetings with none of those games going to overtime. The OVER is 5-1-1 in those seven meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Warriors v. Nets OVER 223.5||Top||113-143||Win||100||12 h 9 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Nets NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 223.5
The Brooklyn Nets are rolling right now going 6-0 in their last six games overall while scoring at least 112 points in all six victories and averaging 122.2 points per game with none of those games going to overtime. I expect them to top that average tonight to lead the way in helping us cash this OVER ticket.
The Nets now play a Warriors squad that is a dead nuts OVER team. The Warriors rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season and allow 117.1 points per game. They have really slipped defensively and just gave up 134 points to the Knicks last night. I know the Warriors have some injuries that hurt them offensively, but this total has been adjusted down too much for it. They will get enough against a bad Brooklyn defense to help us cash this OVER.
The OVER is 5-0 in Warriors last five games overall. The OVER is 20-7-2 in Warriors last 29 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six games overall. The OVER is 13-3 in all Golden State road games this season. The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors games when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. The OVER is 9-0 in Warriors last nine games when playing their 4th road game in 7 days. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Kent State -3.5 v. New Mexico State||Top||73-63||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kent State -3.5
Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes are 8-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their lined games this season. Their three losses came at Gonzaga by 7 as 16-point dogs, at Houston by 5 as 19-point dogs and at College of Charleston by 2 as 2.5-point dogs. Those losses alone show how good this team is without even going through their wins.
Now they take on a New Mexico State team that should be no match for them. The Aggies are 6-4 this season with losses to St. Mary's by 13, to UC Irvine by 17, to UTEP by 3 and to Santa Clara by 1. The six wins came against inferior competition. This will be their toughest test of the season with the exception of that road loss at St. Mary's.
The Golden Flashes are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points. Bet Kent State Wednesday.