20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far.  The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys.  The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.

The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week.  And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.

The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards.  And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week.  It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.

Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders.  They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks.  The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5

I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss.  And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week.  Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss.  And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1.  It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.

But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.  They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front.  And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.

The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company.  Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams.  And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary.  We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.

Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached.  Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take Washington Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5

The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history.  And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.

And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1.  They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series.  They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch.  They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.

Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +101

The Tampa Bay Rays have already clinched the top overall seed in the American League and have nothing to play for.  The Philadelphia Phillies are one game back of the Giants for the final playoff spot in the National League.  We’ll back the more motivated Phillies here at an underdog price.

I also like backing the Phillies with their best starter on the mound in Zack Wheeler.  He is 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 10 starts this season and averaging 6.4 innings per start. He should be able to go deep into this one and have the Phillies avoid their dreaded bullpen for the most part.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 213.5

Oddsmakers have jacked this total up from 208.5 in Game 3 to 212 in Game 4 to 213.5 in Game 5.  There’s now ample value to bet the UNDER in Game 5 tonight and we’ll take advantage.

It’s inflated because Games 3 and 4 went over the totals.  But Game 4 was a dead nuts under until late in the game.  It was 50-44 at halftime and it took a bunch of 3-pointers and fouls in the final minutes to get over the number.  That’s unlikely to happen again.

Elimination games are always more tense, which brings to the table more of a half-court game and poor shooting.  It also amps up the defense for both teams as one is trying to advance to the NBA Finals, while the other is fighting to stay alive.

The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games following a SU loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-110)

The Houston Astros can clinch a playoff spot with a win Friday.  They got their bats going yesterday and won 12-4 to cash in for us.  And we’re back on them again today against the lowly Texas Rangers, who are 1-7 in their last eight games overall.

Jose Urquidy is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in four starts this season.  Urquidy owns the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.357 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just two earned runs and five base runners in 14 innings with 16 K’s.

Texas is 6-20 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, losing by 2.5 runs per game.  The Rangers are 7-25 after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  The Astros are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Friday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6

The Denver Nuggets are so resilient.  They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105.  And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3.  Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3

The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season.  But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes.  They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week.  And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.

The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS.  They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee.  Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.

The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role.  They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.

Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Dolphins Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -119

The Houston Astros are trying to clinch a playoff spot at 28-28 on the season.  A win or two more will do it.  It starts tonight against the Texans Rangers.

Christian Javier is 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in his last three.  Javier is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in one career start against Texas, which came back on September 2nd when he allowing just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings.

Lance Lynn is having another good season for Texas.  But Lynn has struggled mightily in recent starts against the Astros, going 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts against them.  He has allowed 16 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 innings in those three starts.

Texas is ice cold at the plate and is 5-21 after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season, so it has happened often.  They are hitting just .213 and scoring 3.6 runs per game as a team.  Roll with the Astros Thursday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 211

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will certainly be prepared for each other heading into Game 4.  After all, they’ve had three days off in between games to practice and prepare.

That’s going to favor the UNDER big-time in Game 4 tonight.  It already favors defense the longer a series goes on, but that will especially be the case in this series with this delay in action.

In Game 3 the refs were whistle-happy and sent both teams to the free throw line 30-plus times.  The Heat were 28-of-34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 26-of-30.  They had shot just 38 combined free throws in Game 2 and that went up to 64 in Game 3.  There won’t be nearly as many fouls called in Game 4 tonight.

The UNDER is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-101)

The Tampa Bay Rays would clinch the AL East with a victory Wednesday.  They take on the New York Mets (25-30), who are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would need to much help to get in even if they won out.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Tyler Glasnow, who is 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 83 K’s in 51 1/3 innings.  Glasnow has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in five starts away from home.

Michael Wacha is washed up and terrible.  He is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in his last three.  Wacha has never beaten the Rays, going 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.281 WHIP in two career starts against them.

The Rays are 27-12 against right-handed starters this season.  Tampa Bay is 12-2 in its last 14 games following a loss.  The Rays are 18-6 in their last 24 road games.  The Mets are 6-16 in their last 22 games as underdogs.  New York is 24-53 in its last 77 games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +145

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series to Cleveland, and now their lead in the AL Central has been trimmed to 0.5 games.

The good news for the White Sox is ace Lucas Giolito takes the ball to stop the bleeding.  Giolito is 4-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four road starts.  Giolito is 2-0 with a 0.65 ERA in his last four starts against Cleveland, giving up just 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings with 32 K’s.

Shane Bieber has proven to be hittable in his last two outings, allowing 3 earned runs apiece to both the Twins and Tigers.  The White Sox have gotten to him for 3 runs each in their last two games against him.

Giolito is 14-4 (+13 Units) against the money line in all road games over the lsat two seasons.  It’s bounce back time for Chicago and Giolito tonight.  Take the White Sox Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +6.5

The Denver Nuggets have been the comeback kids in these playoffs, and being down 0-2 won’t phase them at all.  They overcame two 3-1 deficits to win the first two series for the first time in NBA history.

The Nuggets really showed they could play with the Lakers in Game 2 in their 103-105 loss at the buzzer.  They have also proven they are a matchup problem for the Lakers as they shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 47.3% in Game 2.  

They are getting to the rim, but they haven’t shot the 3-pointer to their potential yet, making fewer than 10 in each of their first two games.  They made 9 in Game 1 and just 8 in Game 2. Look for them to get double-digit 3-pointers in Game 3 tonight.

Denver is 10-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -130

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the New York Mets pretty much the dagger blow yesterday.  The Mets lost with ace Jacob DeGrom on the mound to fall to 24-30 on the season.  They just have no shot of making the playoffs now.

The Rays are trying to clinch the AL East this week and can inch closer with another win Tuesday as they lead the Yankees by 4.5 games.  They send Blake Snell to the mound, who is 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Snell fired 7 1/3 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory in his lone career start against the Mets.

Seth Lugo is 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five starts this season for the Mets.  He is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up six earned runs and four homers in 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies last time out.

The Rays are 18-5 in their last 23 road games.  Tampa Bay is 30-11 in its last 41 games overall.  The Mets are 23-53 in their last 76 games as home underdogs.  The Rays are 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Take the Rays Tuesday.

20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5

The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden.  He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency.  The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.

They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites.  The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth.  I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.

New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week.  The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference.  Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury.  He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight.  They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright.  Bet the Raiders Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -124

The Cincinnati Reds have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall to get back to .500 on the season and put themselves in great position to make the postseason.  Look for them to continue their momentum tonight with a win over the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this series.

The Reds have the advantage on the mound behind Luis Castillo.  He has posted a 3.19 ERA in 10 starts this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four home starts.  Castillo has been dominant in his last three outings, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP.

Brandon Woodruff is 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA in five road starts this season.  And while Woodruff has posted a 4.97 ERA in five career starts against the Reds, Castillo has a 3.70 ERA in 10 career starts against the Brewers.

The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Reds are 7-1 in their last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +7.5

The Denver Nuggets were clearly tired coming off two seven-game series in Game 1.  They did not play well, and the Lakers blitzed them for a 126-114 win.  Look for the Nuggets to bounce back in Game 2 and make a game of this.

The Nuggets are used to being down and probably are more comfortable in this role now after overcoming two 3-1 deficits.  They will have the belief, and they did find plenty of holes in the Lakers’ defense in Game 1 as they shot 49.4% front the field.  

But they only made 9 3-pointers, which was one of their lowest totals of the playoffs.  And they turned the ball over 16 times, which was likely due to fatigue.  Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.

Denver is 9-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Take the Nuggets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.  It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0.  But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17.  They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.

I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line.  They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles.  Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.  

They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game.  They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards.  And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.

The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers.  That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center.  Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins.  That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.

Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him.  Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions.  So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached.  So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win.  Washington will give Arizona a run for its money.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have now won five straight games by two runs or more.  They have gone 3-0 against the Rockies in this series with wins by 9, 6 and 5 runs.  It will be more of the same Sunday due to their advantage on the mound.

Tony Gonsolin has been virtually unhittable this season for the Dodgers.  He is 1-0 with a 0.88 ERA and 0.685 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 21 base runners in 30 2/3 innings.  He gave up just one earned run in six innings in his lone start against the Rockies in 2020.

Antonio Senzatela is having a decent season for the Rockies.  But he’s coming off a complete game against Oakland, and that will have taken a lot out of him.  Senzatella does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, going 2-3 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.702 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He is 0-3 with an 8.66 ERA in his last three starts against the Dodgers, giving up 17 earned runs and seven homers in 17 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are outscoring their opponents by 2.3 runs per game on the season.  They are 38-15 this season with 33 wins by two runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +5.5

The Chicago Bears had one of the luckiest wins you will ever see against the Detroit Lions last week.  They trailed 23-6 in the 4th quarter and had about a 2% chance to win.  They went on to score three straight touchdowns to take the 27-23 lead, only to let the Lions drive down for the potential game-winning touchdown.  But DeAndre Swift dropped a would-be TD in the end zone and the Bears won.

The Lions had a couple players go down to injury in the secondary, and Mitchell Trubisky went from looking like the worst quarterback in the NFL for three quarters, to Joe Montana in the fourth quarter.  I believe Trubisky is the former and not the latter, and that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.

While the Bears played a pretty easy opponent in Week 1, the Giants got stuck playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost 16-26 to a Steelers team that just got Big Ben back healthy this season.  But what made that game so difficult was the Steelers defense, which is easily a Top 5 unit and potential the best defense in the NFL.

This is a much easier test for Daniel Jones and the offense as well as this Giants defense.  There’s no way the Bears should be favored by 5.5 points against almost any team in the NFL this season.  So we are going to grab these points this week.  

And it’s worth noting three key defensive players are questionable for the Bears this week in LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn and DT Akeem Hicks.  The Giants should get back WR Golden Tate from a hamstring injury this week to give Jones another weapon outside.  He has plenty of them now with Tate, Shepard, Engram and Barkley to produce a quality offense.

The Giants are a perfect 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last three seasons.  New York is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three years.  Chicago is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a division opponent.  The Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. NFC East opponents.  The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games overall.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Chicago.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105

This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1.  The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing.  That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.

The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1.  They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most.  I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback.  Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times.  The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em.  I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game.  The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.

Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week.  The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company.  Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.

Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2.  This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2.  That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front.  They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins.  But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen.  RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.

The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles.  Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

As we’ve seen all playoffs, as a series goes on points are harder to come by.  Teams become familiar with one another and it favors defense.  The game slows down to a half court affair almost every time.

The Celtics and Heat combined for 207 points in Game 2, which would be low enough to cash this UNDER.  And it’s worth noting both teams shot well, especially the Celtics, who shot 50% from the field and that’s unlikely to happen again.  The Heat shot 44.4% as a team.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  He proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players from last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

I cashed in Louisville -11.5 over Western Kentucky last week and I’m back on them again this week.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 35-21 final score would indicate.  The Cardinals jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead and only scored seven more points after intermission.  They outgained Western Kentucky 487 to 248, or by 239 total yards, so they obviously should have won by more.

I think the fact that Louisville barely covered last week is why were are getting them at such great value this week.  They are only 2.5-point favorites over Miami at home.  And you know the Cardinals haven’t forgotten their 27-52 loss at Miami last year in one of the most misleading finals of the season.

They are going to want some revenge after Louisville outgained Miami 496 to 449 in that contest, but found a way to lose by 25 points due to losing the turnover battle 3-0.  Look for a role reversal this season.  The Cardinals will win the box score and the scoreboard this time around because they are night and day better than they were last year.

The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -135

The Philadelphia Phillies are a tired team playing their 13th game in 10 days.  They pulled off the sweep in the 7-inning double-header yesterday over Toronto, and now the Blue Jays want some revenge Sunday.

They should get that revenge thanks to the huge advantage they have on the mound.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in five road starts.  Ryu is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against Philadelphia as well.

Vincent Velasquez is 0-1 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in five starts this season for the Phillies.  He has posted a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against Toronto.  And now that this is back to a 9-inning game, the Blue Jays will get a longer look at Philadelphia’s league-worst bullpen (7.29 ERA).

Velasquez is 4-17 (-12.4 units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 8-1 (+9.4 units) vs. a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 45-21 in their last 66 interleague games as a favorite.  Take the Blue Jays Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +23.5

Tulsa was way better than its 4-8 record would indicate last year.  The Golden Hurricane faced a brutal schedule that featured nine bowl teams.  And despite their 2-6 record in the tough AAC, they actually outgained their opponents by 45 yards per game.

Tulsa beat UCF outright as 17-point underdogs.  They lost to Memphis by 1 as 10-point dogs and missed a 29-yard field goal with no time left on the clock that would have won the game.  Memphis and UCF were two of the better teams in the country last year.  And Tulsa only lost one game by more than 21 points last season.

The Golden Hurricane played Oklahoma State last year and actually took a 21-20 lead into halftime over the Cowboys.  They did get shut out 20-0 after intermission, but still only lost by 19.  Now they are catching 23.5 points in the rematch this year, and I think it’s too much.

Tulsa brings back nine starters on offense.  That includes stud QB Zach Smith and his top two receivers, who combined for 1,817 yards last year.  They also bring back 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks.  Four of their five starters are back along the offensive line.

I think Oklahoma State is getting too much hype this season with 17 starters back.  I just don’t believe in QB Spencer Sanders, who is too turnover-prone and had just a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  Ten of their starters are back on defense from a unit that gave up 412 yards per game last year.

Tulsa is going to be able to score with Oklahoma State, so it will never be out of this game. And we’ve seen how poor the Big 12 has looked early in the season.  Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas all got upset by Sun Belt teams last week.  And Texas Tech nearly lost to Houston Baptist as a 40-point favorite.

Oklahoma State will be good this year, I just don’t think they are 24-plus points better than Tulsa, which is what they’d need to be to cover this spread.  That’s a Tulsa team they trailed at halftime last year.

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - an excellent offense from last year that average 6.1 or more yards per play, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent, in the first two weeks of the season are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Philip Montgomery is 20-10 ATS in all road games as the coach Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricanee are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +16

Louisiana-Lafeyette is in a massive letdown spot already early in the season.  The Rajin’ Cajuns just went not he road and beat Iowa State 31-14 as 13-point underdogs last week in one of the most misleading final scores of the early season.

Indeed, Louisiana was actually outgained by 31 yards by Iowa State.  The Cyclones held the Rajin’ Cajuns to just 272 total yards.  But the difference in the game was on special teams as Louisiana returned two kicks for touchdowns.  They also won the turnover battle 2-0 in that game.

Now Louisiana comes back as more than two-touchdown favorites on the road against Georgia State this week.  There’s no chance the Rajin’ Cajuns will be as amped up for this game as they were for Iowa State.  And I fully expect them to find themselves in more of a dog fight than they bargained for.

A big reason the Rajin’ Cajuns struggled to move the ball against Iowa State is because they are lacking weapons at receiver.  They are without their top three receivers from last year.  J’Marcus Bradley and Jarrod Jackson graduated, and Jamal Bell is out with injury.  I don’t expect Louisiana to have nearly as explosive of an offense this year as they did last year, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover these bigger spreads in the Sun Belt.

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Lakers are rested and ready to go in the Western Conference Finals.  They made easy work of the Houston Rockets in five games, getting better as the series went on.  After losing Game 1, they went on to win four straight all by 8 points or more.

The Denver Nuggets just became the first team in NBA history to erase two 3-1 deficits in the same postseason and come back to win the series.  They have put a lot of mileage on their tires, and it’s only human nature for them to come out flat in Game 1 tonight.

We saw that last series when they were completely flat in Game 1 against the Clippers.  They lost that game 97-120, and we should see a similar result here.  The Lakers have won three of their four meetings with the Nuggets this season.

Denver is 4-12 ATS after successfully covering the spreading two or more consecutive games this season.  The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Bet the Lakers Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-129)

The Cleveland Indians righted the ship and put an end to their eight-game losing streak with a 10-3 win over the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 yesterday.  Rinse and repeat today as they win Game 2 by two runs or more against a Tigers team that is just 4-12 in their last 16 games overall with nine of those losses by two runs or more.

The Indians have a big advantage on the mound today with Zach Plesac, who is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.780 WHIP in six starts this season.  Plesac has owned the Tigers, going 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Michael Fulmer is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-2 with a 9.27 ERA and 2.149 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Fulmer is also 2-4 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.805 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cleveland.

The Indians are 43-9 in their last 52 meetings with the Tigers.  Cleveland is 54-22 in its last 76 vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 24-66 in its last 90 home games.  The Tigers are 11-43 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 1-15 in home games off two straight games where they stranded five or fewer runners on base over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 5.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6

The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty good Week 1 all things considered.  They were breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow, who won us a lot of money when he was at LSU and who I have a lot of confidence will continue his success in the NFL.  And he did everything he could to win them the game in Week 1.

Indeed, Burrow drove the Bengals down for what would have been the game-winning score to AJ Green, but Green was called for offensive pass interference.  The Bengals then had to settle for a field goal attempt, which Randy Bullock somehow missed.  He either really injured his calf or faked it because he missed it so badly.

The Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game but still had a chance to win.  And their defense held the Chargers to just 16 points and 16-of-30 passing for 207 yards in the loss.  I like the weapons on this team for Burrow with Green, Mixon, Boyd and company.  The Bengals’ stock is going to rise rapidly this year.

The Browns couldn’t have looked worse in Week 1, and I don’t know how they can come back as 6-point favorites after their performance.  They lost 6-38 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs.  Baker Mayfield continues to show he has been a bust as he went 21-of-39 for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception.  He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt  in the loss.

More concerning for the Browns was all their injuries.  They lost three of four starters in the secondary for that game in rookie Grant Delpit, CB Greedy Williams and CB Kevin Johnson.  All three will be out once again on a short week this week.  Not to mention, they lost starting LB Jacob Phillips and OT Jedrick Willis in that Ravens game.  Phillips is out, while Willis is questionable.  They are a mess right now in the injury department to say the least.

A very bad Cincinnati team last year played Cleveland tough in both meetings.  They lost 19-27 in the first matchup despite outgaining the Browns 451 to 333 and and holding a 27 to 17 edge in first downs.  They got their revenge in Week 17 with a 33-23 win and also outgained the Browns 361 to 313.  Now Cincinnati actually has a quarterback instead of a third-stringer, plus one of the top WR’s in the league in Green is back from injury.

The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Cincinnati is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 September games.  The Browns are 24-49-2 ATS in their last 75 games overall.  Cleveland is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games following a loss.  The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

15* Heat/Celtics ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209.5

The Heat and Celtics combined for 212 points at the end of regulation in Game 1.  And it took a big 58-point 4th quarter to get there.  Look for them to combine for fewer than 209.5 points at the end of regulation in Game 2, so we’ll take the UNDER and hope to avoid overtime.

Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1.  The Heat shot 47.1% from the field and were 16-of-36 (44.4%) from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again.  The Celtics shot 44.3% from the field and 15-of-42 (35.7%) from 3-point range.  Those numbers are close to their season averages.  They also shot 21-of-23 (91.3%) from the charity stripe.

As we’ve seen in the playoffs, as a series goes on, points are harder to come by because teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense.  The books set a 208-point total in Game 1, and now they’ve actually raised it to 209.5, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.

Boston is 13-5 UNDER when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Astros OVER 9

Oddsmakers have set this total too low following a 1-0 victory by the Ranges over the Astros yesterday.  In fact, the first two games of this series have been low scoring, so I think they’ve shaded this total lower than it should be.

Jordan Lyles is awful.  He is 1-4 with a 9.11 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in six starts for the Rangers this season, including 0-3 with a 10.05 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three road starts.  The Astros could definitely cover this OVER on their own.

Framber Valdez got off to a good start for the Astros, but he’s 0-1 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts.  Valdez is also 0-1 with an 8.21 ERA and 1.956 WHIP in two career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rangers last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 27-13-3 in Rangers last 43 games as an underdog.  Houston is 17-6 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-110)

The Cincinnati Reds have now won four straight games all by two runs or more.  They make it five in a row when they host the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 0-7 in their last seven games overall with six of those losses by two runs or more.

The Reds have a huge advantage on the mound today with Luis Castillo.  He got off to a shaky start this year, but he has really turned a corner in his last two starts.  Castillo is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just three earned runs in 15 innings.  

Castillo is also 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts against the Pirates, allowing just six earned runs in 25 innings.  He’ll be opposed by J.T. Brubaker, who is 1-1 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in six starts this season for the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is 6-24 in night games this season.  The Pirates are 2-16 on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season, losing by 3.1 runs per game.  Bet the Reds on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays +144

The Toronto Blue Jays (26-20) have played themselves into playoff contention.  They have gone 19-9 in their last 28 games overall and are near full strength in the health department as they just got back SS Bo Bichette from injury.

The same cannot be said for the New York Yankees (26-21), who have struggled without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton among others.  The Yankees are 10-15 in their last 25 games overall with three of those wins coming against the Mets and five against the Orioles.

I would argue the Blue Jays have the advantage on the mound and at the plate today, so they should not be this big of underdogs.  Taijuan Walker is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last three.  Take the Blue Jays Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +118

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost three straight to fall back to .500 on the season.  As a result, we are getting them at a great value here Tuesday as home underdogs to the New York Mets (21-26).

Both Jake Arrieta and Rick Porcello have struggled this year, but Arrieta is the better starter.  Porcello is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 3-3 with a 4.40 ERA in eight career starts against Philadelphia.

Arrieta is 3-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in eight starts this season.  But he does enjoy facing the Mets, posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He gave up just two earned runs in seven innings in his lone start against the Mets in 2020 on September 4th, resulting in a 5-3 win over Porcello and the Mets as +125 dogs.

The Mets are 0-8 off three straight games against AL teams this season.  The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Philadelphia is 10-2 in its last 12 home games overall.  Roll with the Phillies Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML +108

The Miami Heat are now 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the playoffs.  They swept the Pacers and beat the Bucks in five games.  They are the real deal, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as underdogs to the Boston Celtics in Game 1.

This despite the fact that the Heat are the fresher team having a week off to get ready for this game.  And all that extra preparation they got leading up to this series, they will be ready for Game 1 tonight with a great game plan from Erik Spoelstra.

The Celtics should still be fresh with three days off in between games, but they did just have to go seven games with the Toronto Raptors.  And it’s worth noting the Heat upset the Celtics 112-106 as 4-point underdogs in their lone meeting in the bubble.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Titans/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Denver Broncos closed strong last season in Vic Fangio’s first year on the job.  They went 4-1 in their final five games last year with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the snow.

The Broncos found their QB of the future down the stretch, too.  Drew Lock came in and played very well to close out the season.  He completed 100-of-156 (64.1%) passes for 1,020 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Broncos have now surrounded him with weapons by drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first two rounds of the draft.  They already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fantasias, previous high picks who were the top two receivers last year.  And they added in Melvin Gordon, who is just one of three RB’s with 40-catch seasons in each of the past four years.  He’ll combined with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Philip Lindsay in the backfield.

While the Broncos will have a much more potent offense than they did a year ago, the defense is also going to be a strength.  Too much had been made of the Von Miller injury, and I think the Broncos are undervalued in Week 1 because of it.  They still have a loaded defense that ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year, giving up just 19.8 points per game.

The Broncos added in former Titan Jurrell Casey at defensive tackle, and he’s one of the best players in the game.  He is also going to be motivated to face his former team, and he’ll be able to offer plenty of insight to Denver coaches about what the Titans like to run on both sides of the ball.  That’s a huge advantage.  They do lose CB Chris Harris, but new CB A.J. Bouye comes over from the Jaguars and may actually be a better fit for Fangio’s zone-based scheme.

The Titans are getting too much hype to start 2020 after the incredible run they made to close last year.  They went 9-4 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter, and they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after upsetting both the Patriots and Ravens on the road.  They held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs before falling 24-35.

The Titans won me a lot of money during that stretch, but that’s because they were undervalued and consistently underdogs.  But now they open up as 3-point road favorites in Week 1.  As I mentioned, the Titans lost Casey, their best defensive player.  They also lost T Jack Conklin and CB Logan Ryan, two of their best players as well who started all 16 games for them last year.  

Two of their biggest signings were pass rushers Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney.  Beasley wore out his welcome in Atlanta and wasn’t productive at all, and Clowney just can’t seem to stay on the field as he is always injured.  Beasley didn’t pass his physical until September 5th after spending training camp on the non-football injury list.  Clowney didn’t sign his contract until September 7th.  Playing int he altitude of Denver will limit the number of reps both get.

Derrick Henry has had two of his worst games against the Broncos.  Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards as a rookie in 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss to the Broncos last year.  You know Fangio is going to make stopping Henry the focal point, and now with Casey as a run-stuffer, the Broncos have the players up front to do it again.

Denver is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee.  Both of the Titans' wins came by exactly 3 points.  Denver’s five wins came by an average of 16.0 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-110)

The Atlanta Braves have now scored four or more runs in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They have cashed for us the past couple days, including yesterday as a +155 underdog as they put up eight runs on Max Scherzer and company.

I’m back on the Braves today on the Run Line due to their offense, not due to Touki Toussaint getting he ball for them.  He has a 6.11 ERA in four starts this season, but Baltimore starter Jorge Lopez has a 5.02 ERA in his three starts.

The key here is that Toussaint will get run support, while the Orioles probably won’t be able to muster much offense.  That has been the case recently as the Orioles are 0-5 in their last five games overall.  They scored a total of three runs in their 4-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees over the weekend.

The Braves are 11-1 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.8 runs per game.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Monday.

15* Cowboys/Rams NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

You’re just not hearing a lot of talk about the Los Angeles Rams this year.  They are kind of the forgotten team.  They just went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and followed it up with a disappointing 9-7 year last year.

But the Rams did manage to go 11-5 ATS last year, which is impressive for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance.  They were 7th in total offense and 13th in total defense, so they were still a pretty good team.

Los Angeles’ offense is loaded once again this year.  Jared Goff led the 4th-ranked passing attack last year.  And I love the continuity this offense has coming off a crazy offseason with no preseason games.

The Cowboys’ situation is much worse.  They brought in Mike McCarthy to install a new system.  And while the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, it’s going to take a few weeks to be hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  I expect the Rams to be efficient in Week 1.

The Cowboys are going to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They failed to address needs on this side of the ball.  They lost their most productive defender in Robert Quinn, who has 11.5 sacks last year.  They lost their best CB in Byron Jones to the Dolphins.  

Dallas signed DT Gerald McCoy, but he was lost for the season three weeks ago with a torn ACL.  They are actually hoping for Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory to return from indefinite suspensions due to off-the-field issues.  Jaylon Smith is their only reliable linebacker, and their secondary really takes a hit with the loss of Jones.  The Rams are just in a better position here in Week 1 and should not be the underdogs in this matchup.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Miami Dolphins did a great job to get to 5-11 SU & 9-7 ATS last year.  They really came on strong in the second half.  Head coach Brian Flores has the pulse of his team, and they fought hard to the wire last year.

That included a 27-24 upset win over the Patriots as 15.5-point dogs in Week 17 when the Patriots were playing for home-field advantage.  And I like the continuity on this team now that Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which was the right move.

The Dolphins bring back all 11 starters on defense and add in CB Byron Jones, DE Shaq Lawson and LB Kyle Van Noy.  Offensively they bring in RB Jordan Howard from Philadelphia and RB Matt Breida from San Francisco.  The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and his young receivers should be even better this year.

No doubt Cam Newton will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year, but things aren’t going to go smoothly in Week 1 as he adjusts to the new offense.  And the Patriots had several players opt out in the offseason in Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden and Matt LaCosse.  They cannot be more than 7-point favorites in the opener against Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins +6.5

The Washington Redskins come into the 2020 season undervalued off a 3-13 campaign last year.  Ron Rivera takes over and enters his 10th season as a head coach.  I think he is still one of the better coaches in the NFL as his players always respect and play hard for him.

The Redskins were terrible through the first 10 games last year, but they got much better down the stretch.  They went 2-4 in their last six games, but they were competitive in losses to the Packers (by 5), Eagles (by 10) and Giants (OT).  Their only blowout loss came in Week 17 to the Cowboys.

Dwayne Haskins got some valuable playing time down the stretch and should be ready for a breakout sophomore season at quarterback.  The Redskins are going to have an offense similar to that of the Ravens that is going to be tough for opposing defenses to deal with.

Defensively, they drafted Chase Allen, arguably the best player in the draft.  And now they have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  Young joins a unit that already includes four first-round picks in Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat.  We’ve seen in the NFL that having a dominant defensive line is the most important position group there is.

The Eagles had 10 of their 16 games last year decided by one score.  So that fact alone says there’s value here with the Redskins catching nearly a full touchdown.  The Eagles lose a ton of key pieces in S Jenkins, CB Darby, DT Jernigan, T Peters and WR Agholor, and their secondary is still a problem.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +155

The Atlanta Braves have scored 4 or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  With how well they are hitting the ball right now, they should not be anywhere near this big of underdogs to the Washington Nationals.

Max Scherzer is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Scherzer is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in four home starts this season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Braves, allowing 10 earned runs in 15 innings.

Atlanta is 11-1 after scoring two runs or less this season.  Washington is 1-10 in home games off two or more consecutive home games this season.  Take the Braves Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -125

The St. Louis Cardinals will bounce back today after getting shut down in a 3-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday.  Luis Castillo pitched a complete game gem and there wasn’t much the Cardinals could do.

St. Louis will have much more success at the plate today against Tejay Antone.  He is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in three starts this season while averaging just 4.4 innings per start.

Dakota Hudson is coming off a tremendous 2019 campaign and has picked up right where he left off.  Hudson is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in six starts in 2020.  He has never lost to the Reds, going 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.046 WHIPin six career starts against them.  He has allowed just one earned run in 11 2/3 innings against the Reds in 2020.

Hudson is 13-2 (+10.6 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Reds are 1-10 in their last 11 games when their opponent scored two runs or less in their previous game.  Take the Cardinals Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -11.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  The proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

Western Kentucky is definitely no slouch.  The Hilltoppers also had a huge improvement last year going from 3-9 in 2018 to 9-4 in 2019 in Tyson Helton’s first season.  Give them credit, but it came against a very soft schedule, and they even lost to Central Arkansas.  They do have 16 starters back, but they lost starting QB Ty Storey and leading receiver Lucky Jackson.  Story completed 69.9% of his passes last year and Jackson had 94 receptions for 1,133 yards and four touchdowns.  Both are irreplaceable.

The Hilltoppers will starter Tyrrell Pigrome at quarterback.  He’s a transfer from Maryland that only completed 57% of his passes with a 9-to-10 TD/INT ratio in his four years with the Terrapins.  He is a huge downgrade.  The defense will be good again, but the offense will be way behind where it was last year, and it wasn’t even all that good last year in averaging just 25.4 points per game.

Louisville beat Western Kentucky 38-21 last year and outgained the Hilltoppers by 127 yards.  I think the Cardinals are better this year than last, while the Hilltoppers are worse off.  So another 17-plus point victory can be expected.  Plus, Louisville got in seven spring practices, while WKU didn’t have a single spring practice.  So the Cardinals had the leg up going into fall camp.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Louisville) - a great offense from last year that average 6.4 or more yards per play, with an experienced QB returning as a starter are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons in the first month of the season.  The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

I cashed in the Rockets/Lakers UNDER in Game 4 and I’m back on the UNDER today.  Three of four games in this series have seen 214 combined points or fewer.  The Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and the Rockets get a bad reputation as their defense is better than their ’small ball’ lineup would suggest.

As we’ve seen with every series in the 2nd round, points come hard to get the deeper a series goes.  Teams get familiar with one another, and there are fewer fast break opportunities.  It basically becomes a half court game in the playoffs the deeper a series goes.

Houston is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games this season.  Los Angeles is 25-12 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games over the past two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Alabama +10

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  So I’m high on this team and will back them again here.  They dominated Southern Miss by racking up 526 total yards and outgaining them by 117 yards for the game.  So now the Jaguars have a game under their belts and eight days off to get ready for Tulane.

No question Tulane is a quality team under Willie Fritz.  He has done a good job here improving Tulane from four to five to seven and seven wins in his first four seasons, respectively.  I just don’t think the Green Wave should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers in the opener.

Tulane only returns 12 starters this year and loses all of its top playmakers from an offense that was Fritz’s best yet last year, averaging 33.1 points and 449 yards per game.  They lose QB Justin McMillan, their top two receivers in Darnell Mooney and Jalen McCleskey, and their top two running backs.  McMillan is a big loss as he also led the team in rushing with 745 yards and 12 TD on the ground.  

The replacement is likely to be Southern Miss transfer Keon Howard, who only completed 54% of his passes with a 9-to-9 TD/INT ratio in his two years there.  Tulane will have a solid defense with seven starters back, but the offense is going to struggle to find chemistry in their first game with all these new faces with only five starters back.

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  They are flying under the radar again this week.  Roll with South Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I like that Arkansas State has a game under its belt now against an opponent that is better than the Kansas State team they will be playing on Saturday.  Plus, it’s worth noting that the Red Wolves had 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got a head start going into fall camp.  Kansas State had zero spring practices.

Chris Klieman inherited 14 returning starters last year and led the Wildcats to a surprising 8-5 campaign that included an upset win over Oklahoma.  But the Wildcats only have nine starters back this year and will clearly be one of the worst teams in the Big 12.

The Wildcats lose all five starters along the offensive line as they were all seniors last year.  I love betting against inexperienced offensive lines early in the season.  It will create continuity problems for Kansas State, which only has three starters back in all on offense.  They also lose their leading receiver and rusher.  

The Wildcats will have a solid defense, but I just don’t think they’ll be able to score enough points to put Arkansas State away by two-plus touchdowns, let alone win the game outright.  Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are very fortunate to still be alive in this series.  They needed a buzzer-beater in Game 3 to avoid falling down 0-3, and they needed double-overtime to win Game 6.  The Celtics have clearly been the better team in this series, and they will win Game 7 by being the better team tonight.

Boston hasn’t shot worse than 42.1% in any game in the series, and has shot 44% or better in five of the six games.  Toronto has shot 43.6% or worse in five of six games, and 40% or worse in four of those.  The Celtics are clearly the better defensive team.

Boston is 18-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins more than 70% of their games this season.  Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +112

Oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this NL Central matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds.  The Cardinals still have a decent shot to win the NL Central as they are just three games behind the Cubs for first place.  The Reds are now 6.5 games after losing three of their last four.

There’s no question the Cardinals have the advantage on the mound, which is why they should not be underdogs.  Adam Wainwright has been revived this season, going 4-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in six starts.  He held the Reds to 2 earned runs in 7 innings of a 5-4 victory on August 20th in his lone start against them in 2020.

Luis Castillo has been a disappointment this season, going 1-5 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in five road starts.  Castillo is 1-1 with a 9.58 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings.

The Cardinals are 21-8 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 95-46 in its last 141 home meetings with Cincinnati.  The Cardinals are 36-17 in the last 53 meetings.  Roll with the Cardinals Friday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216

The Nuggets and Clippers are coming off a very low scoring Game 4 and oddsmakers haven set this total too high once again for Game 5.  They just combined for 181 points in a 96-85 victory for the Clippers in Game 4.  

Now they have the total at 216, which they have lowered, but it’s just not low enough.  As a playoff series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, which favors defense.  And it leads to fewer fast breaks and a lot of half court offense.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Nuggets last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five games overall.  The UNDER is 40-18-1 in the last 59 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Texans/Chiefs 2020 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City -9

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs bring back pretty much everyone from last year’s team and have a legitimate shot to defend their crown.  They gave Patrick Mahomes the big contract he deserved and he has all his weapons back, plus they drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU in the first round.  Their offense will be as explosive as any in the NFL again.

Defensively, the Chiefs held their own last year in giving up just 19.2 points per game, which was the 7th-best mark in the league.  They were 11th in sacks (45) and 5th in interceptions (16).  And they really didn’t lose anyone of significance defensively with 11 starters back.  The only loss is CB Kendall Fuller, who only started four games for the Chiefs last year.

I just don’t like what Bill O’Brien is doing with the Texans.  The trade of DeAndre Hopkins was the worst trade of the offseason.  They got a washed up running back in David Johnson in return.  And the offense is now severely lacking playmakers, especially if Brandon Cooks is unable to go with a quad injury tonight.  He is listed as questionable.

While I do think Houston’s offense will be serviceable this year, the defense is going to be atrocious.  The Texans finished 28th in total defense, 29th in passing defense and 25th in rushing defense last year.  They didn’t do much to address their defense at all, and getting stops will be a problem again, which isn’t good news when facing the Chiefs.

We saw that last year in the playoffs as the Chiefs erased a 24-0 deficit with ease in the playoffs and ended up taking a 28-24 lead into halftime.  They went on to win 51-31 as they moved the ball and scored points at will on Houston’s defense.  And that was even with J.J. Watt returning from injury in time for the playoffs.  There was little he or any other Texan could do to slow down Mahomes and company.

Kansas City went 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS last year.  They really have no problem winning by double-digits as 10 of their 15 wins last year came by 10 points or more.  I think we see another here to open the 2020 season.  Roll with the Chiefs Thursday.

15* UAB/Miami CFB ANNIHILATOR on UAB +14.5

What Bill Clark has done at UAB has been remarkable.  He took a team that didn’t even play football for two years to a bowl game in 2017.  Then in 2018 the Blazers won the Conference USA title.

Last year, the Blazers only brought back seven starters and still started 9-3 and made the C-USA title game again.  They would go on to lose to FAU and Appalachian State, but it was still a great season with such little experience.

Now the Blazers are one of the most experienced teams in the country again with 18 returning starters and should make the C-USA title game for the 3rd consecutive season.  They are the favorites to win the conference, and for good reason.

UAB opened its season with a 45-35 victory over Central Arkansas as 19-point favorites.  But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed.  UAB outgained Central Arkansas 459-293 for the game.  Central Arkansas scored one TD on a fumble recovery, and it was a 45-21 game before UAB pulled its starters, and they allowed two touchdowns in the final six minutes of garbage time.

Miami is a team that is hard to trust laying these kind of points.  They showed that last year when they went 6-7 and were upset by two fellow Conference USA teams of UAB.  They lost 24-30 to FIU as 20-point favorites and went on to lose 14-0 to Louisiana Tech as 7-point favorites in the Independence Bowl.  UAB is better this year than both FIU and LA Tech were last year.

I know the Hurricanes have a great transfer QB in D’Eriq King coming in from Houston.  He’s one of my favorite quarterbacks in the country, and it was about time they found a signal caller after averaging just 25.7 points per game last year.  But King won’t be hitting on all cylinders in his first game, and I like the fact that UAB has a game under its belt already, which is a huge advantage.

The Hurricanes have consistently had a great defense the last three years, giving up 21 points per game in 2017, 19.5 in 2018 and 20.2 in 2019.  But the gains they make up with King on offense could be made up for what they lose on defense.  The Hurricanes only return five starters on D and lose five of their top seven tackles, including Shaquille QAuarterman and Michael Pinckney.  Miami will certainly take a step back defensively in 2020.  Take UAB Thursday.

20* Lakers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 219.5

Both the Lakers and Rockets shot really well in Game 3 and it still saw just 214 combined points.  The Lakers shot 55.1% while the Rockets shot 46.9% from the field.  I would have a hard time seeing either team shooting as well in Game 4.

As we’ve seen with the other 2nd round series thus far, the deeper it gets into the series, the harder it is to score points.  That’s because teams become more familiar with one another, and it inevitably becomes a half-court game with few fast break opportunities.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six games overall.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-102)

The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after dropping their last two games to the Royals over the past two days.  They won’t be losing three in a row here, and I have them winning by multiple runs tonight.

The Indians have a big advantage on the mound behind Aaron Civale, who is 3-4 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He’ll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in eight starts this season.

Cleveland is 24-3 vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 runs per game or fewer over the last two seasons, winning by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +8

The Denver Nuggets have really impressed since coming out flat in Game 1.  That was expected as they were just coming off a 7-game series against the Jazz in which they put a lot into coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win that series.

But the Nuggets look rejuvenated in their last two games.  They pulled the 110-101 upset in Game 2 as 8.5-point dogs, and led most the way over the Clippers in Game 3, only to fall short 107-113.  

The Clippers even shot 54.7% as a team in Game 3 and still only won by 6 points.  It’s going to take a lot for the Clippers to be able to put away the Nuggets by 8-point points tonight.

Denver is 8-0 ATS after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus fewer free throws than their opponent over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are coming back to win by 10.2 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago White Sox -155

The White Sox cost us yesterday by blowing a 4-2 lead in the 8th inning to the Pirates.  We’ll give them a chance to redeem themselves here against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate in this one.

The White Sox have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 35 runs during this stretch.  Chicago starter Dane Dunning, who has a 3.86 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in three starts this season, will get plenty of run support to get him a win here.

The Pirates are just 14-26 on the season and only trying to play the role of spoiler at this point.  They did a good job yesterday, but they won’t be winning two in a row against the White Sox with J.T Brubaker on the mound.  He is 1-0 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four home starts.

The White Sox are 16-5 in their last 21 games overall.  Chicago is 39-17 in its last 56 games as a favorite.  Pittsburgh is 18-37 in its last 55 games overall.  The Pirates are 13-27 in their last 40 games as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 2-15 in its last 17 Interleague games.  Bet the White Sox Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers bounced back nicely in Game 2 with a 117-109 victory as 5.5-point favorites over the Houston Rockets.  Now they go up 2-1 with another win and cover in Game 3 tonight.

The Lakers won despite the Rockets making 10 more 3-pointers (22) than they did (12).  Los Angeles took advantage of its size and got easy bucket after easy bucket.  The Lakers shot 47-of-83 (56.6%) from the field.  Look for them to continue to be aggressive with Lebron and Anthony Davis both getting to the rim at will.

The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest.  Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -125

The Chicago White Sox have won four straight to improve to 26-15 and in a tie for first place in the AL Central.  They are hitting the cover off the ball right now, scoring a combined 31 runs in their four-game sweep of the Royals.  They have scored 5 or more runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Chicago starter Dylan Cease is 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in eight starts this season for the White Sox.  He’ll be opposed by Joe Musgrove, who is 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in four starts for the Pirates this season.

The White Sox are 18-4 vs. teams whose hitters draw three or fewer walks per game this season.  Chicago is 21-7 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The White Sox are 12-1 off a win by 4 runs or more this season.  Chicago is 9-0 in road games off three straight road games this season.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

15* BYU/Navy ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Navy +1.5

Navy is coming off a huge bounce-back season.  After going 3-10 in 2018 in only the 2nd losing season ever for head coach Ken Niumatalolo, the Midshipmen put together an 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded with a win over Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.  Their only two losses came to Memphis and Notre Dame.

Now the Midshipmen have the most returning starters (13) that they’ve had since 2014.  While they do have to replace QB Malcolm Perry, the offense always functions at a high level no matter who is under center in the triple-option.  And the defense should be great again with seven returning starters from a unit that gave up just 22.3 points and 314 yards per game last year.

BYU has 14 returning starters from a 7-6 team that lost to Hawaii in their bowl last year.  The Cougars are still a tough out every time they take the field.  And I do think they’ll have a solid defense with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 25.5 points and 394 yards per game, but I would take Navy’s defense over theirs.

Offensively, the Cougars do get a healthy Zach Wilson back at QB and return everyone on the offensive line.  My problem with their offense is that they lose each of their top four receivers from last year, so there could be some chemistry issues with Wilson and company early on.  The big blow was when potential All-American TE Matt Bushman (47 receptions, 688 yards, 4 TD 2019) suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in camp.

BYU is 0-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Navy is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Midshipmen are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Take Navy Monday.

20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were one shot away from being up 3-0 in this series.  They suffered a heartbreaker in Game 3 at the buzzer, and then in Game 4 they simply shot poorly while the Raptors shot lights out from 3-point range.

Indeed, the Celtics had their worst shooting game of the series, making just 7-of-35 (20%) from distance.  The Raptors shot 17-of-44 (38.6%) in the same game, yet the Celtics still had a chance late and only lost 93-100.  Look for a role reversal here.

Even though I cashed the Raptors the last two games, I still believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, so I have to side with them in this all-important Game 5.  Boston is 12-2 ATS vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games this season.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

15* MLB Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Phillies -115

The Philadelphia Phillies were on a 10-1 run before dropping their last two games to the New York Mets over the weekend.  Look for them to bounce back and get right back int he win column today thanks to their advantage on the mound.

Zack Wheeler is one of my favorite starters to back in the big leagues.  Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last three.

David Peterson has been solid as well for the Mets, but he’s no Wheeler.  Peterson is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in his five starts this season.  The youngster is averaging just 5.1 innings per start, so the Phillies should get into the Mets’ suspect bullpen early.

Philadelphia is 12-2 with a money line of +100 to -150 this season.  New York is 1-7 off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven games as a favorite.  Roll with the Phillies Monday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers showed some rust in Game 1 against the Blazers in the first round because they weren’t trying too hard in the bubble.  But they rebounded to win the next four games, including a 111-88 blowout in Game 2.

The Lakers were rusty again coming into Game 1 against the Rockets in Round 2.  They had six days off prior to Game 1 and the rust showed.  The Lakers shot just 42.2% from the field and 28.9% from the 3-point line.  Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.

Now the Lakers go from being 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 down to 5.5-point favorites in Game 2.  I don’t agree with the line adjustment, and there’s clearly value with the Lakers here as they’ll be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency than Houston.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-130)

The Yankees have lost their last two games to the Orioles in this series and will be highly motivated for a victory here Sunday as a result.  I expect them to get the job done in blowout fashion due to their advantage on the mound.

Masahiro Tanaka is 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.40 WHIP in two road starts.  Tanaka is also 5-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 15 career starts against Baltimore.

Asher Wojciechowski is 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four home starts.  Wojciechowski has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in two career starts against them.

The Yankees are 21-4 against the Orioles over the past three seasons.  Baltimore is 4-26 after allowing three runs or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Arkansas State/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas State +19

The Arkansas State Red Wolves now have nine consecutive winning seasons and have been the model of consistency in the Sun Belt.  Of course, having a 7th-year head coach like Blake Anderson has helped stabilize the program, and he just got an extension through 2023 for good reason.

Now Arkansas State returns 15 starters and has the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.  Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio before suffering a season-ending injury after four starts and Layne Hatcher took over and finished with 65.8% completions and a 27-to-10 ratio.  Bonner is expected to start the opener, but they’re in good hands if anything happens to him. And nine starters in all return offensively.

There’s a little too much hype surrounding Memphis heading into 2020 after winning the most games (12) in program history last year and making the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.  But they were fortunate in close games last year going 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less.

While Memphis will be good again with 14 returning starters including QB Brady White, I simply believe they are being overvalued here.  And they lost their head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  New head coach Ryan Silverfield coached the Tigers in their 39-53 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.  So there is some continuity with them, I just think it has to be a step down from Norvell.

Arkansas State did get to play another team from the AAC last year in SMU.  Their 30-37 loss to the Mustangs aged well as SMU went on to have a 10-3 season and nearly beat Memphis on the road last year.  And that was an inexperienced Arkansas State team with just 12 returning starters in their season opener at the time.  I believe they’ll be able to hang with Memphis.

It’s also worth noting that Arkansas State got in 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got in more practice than most heading into the fall.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -130

I’m back on the Toronto Blue Jays today after their took Game 1 of the double-header yesterday against Boston for us.  They went on to lose Game 2, and I like their chances of bouncing back here now in a full 9-inning game.

The Blue Jays are 14-6 in their last 20 games overall and fighting to make the playoffs.  The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games to fall to 13-27 on the season with little to play for.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in the Blue Jays with a big advantage on the mound as well.

Chase Anderson is 0-0 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in five starts for the Blue Jays this season.  He’ll be opposed by Ryan Weber, who is 0-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in four starts this season for the Red Sox.  He has already allowed 13 earned runs, 6 homers and 28 base runners in 14 innings.

The Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine games as road favorites.  The Red Sox are 17-41 in their last 58 games as underdogs.  Boston is 8-23 in its last 31 home games.  The Red Sox are 15-37 in their last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Blue Jays Saturday.

15* Raptors/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +1.5

The Toronto Raptors are going to have a great mindset heading into Game 4 tonight.  They saved their season with a 3-point buzzer beater in a 104-103 win over Boston in Game 3 after losing a 99-102 heartbreaker in Game 2.  Now they have the belief they can get it done.

The Celtics have simply shot better than the Raptors from 3-point range in this series, which has really been the difference.  The Celtics are 41-of-106 (38.7%) for the series while the Raptors are 34-of-120 (28.3%).  The Raptors shot it better than the Celtics during the regular season so that should even itself out, and it did in Game 3.

Toronto is 14-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs.  Toronto is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5

The Milwaukee Bucks are basically in a must-win situation here now down 0-2 to the Miami Heat.  While I knew the Heat would give them a series because they are gritty and have great shooting, I have to go against the Heat in this situation.

Miami will relax while Milwaukee will simply want it more.  And I trust Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments in this one.  The Bucks shot poorly and still almost won Game 2, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 28% from 3-point range.  I expect them to improve upon those numbers in Game 3 tonight.

Milwaukee is 45-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 25-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games following a loss.  Bet the Bucks Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -114 (Game 1)

The Toronto Blue Jays are now 13-5 in their last 18 games overall.  They are fighting to make the playoffs.  The Boston Red Sox have lost four straight to fall to 12-26 on the season and clearly out of the playoff race.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated Blue Jays in Game 1 of this double-header Friday.

Tanner Roark has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues for the past handful of seasons and has been a nice addition to Toronto’s rotation.  The Blue Jays are 5-1 in games that Roark starts this season as he just keeps his team in games and has done so throughout his career.

Zack Godley has been a disaster for the Red Sox.  He is 0-3 with a 9.14 ERA and 2.123 WHIP in six starts this season with 22 earned runs, 7 homers and 46 base runners allowed in 21 2/3 innings.

Godley is 0-8 (-8.9 units) against division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 6-21 as underdogs of +100 or higher this season.  Boston is 0-10 in home games off three or more consecutive home games this season.  Toronto is 7-1 in its last eight games as a road favorite.  Take the Blue Jays Friday.

20* USA/USM 2020 College Football Season Opener on South Alabama +15

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

Certainly Southern Miss has done a good job under Jay Hopson as he has coached them to a winning record in each of his four seasons on the job.  But they’ve been barely over a .500 team each year finishing with one more win than loss in three of four years.  And I don’t think they should be two-touchdown favorites out of the gate here against what will be a vastly improved South Alabama team.

Southern Miss does have a good defense that gave up 26.2 points per game last year and six starters back on that side of the ball.  But the offense just isn’t explosive enough, averaging just 26.6 points per game last year.  So even thought they get QB Jack Abraham back this year, he only had a 19-to-15 TD/INT ratio last year and makes too many mistakes for my liking.  Plus, he loses his top receiver from last year in Quez Watkins (64 receptions, 1,178 yards, 6 TD).

South Alabama went on the road in its opener last year and gave Nebraska all it wanted in a 21-35 loss as 35-point dogs.  The Jaguars actually outgained the Huskers 314-276 in that game but gave up three non-offensive touchdowns, which was the difference.  They can certainly compete with Southern Miss on the road in the 2020 opener.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -117

The Toronto Blue Jays are going for it.  They are now 12-5 in their last 17 games overall and just traded for Taijuan Walker from the Mariners.  It was a great move and one that is already starting to pay off.

Walker is 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three outings.  He shut out Boston over five innings in his only career start against them.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound with Walker over Martin Perez, who is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Perez is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in three home starts at Fenway Park.  He was just rocked for 6 runs in 4 innings of a 2-10 loss to Washington in his last start.

The Red Sox are just 12-25 on the season with nothing to play for right now.  They give up 6.3 runs per game and opponents hit .289 against them as a team.  Boston is 0-9 in home games off three or more consecutive home games this season.  Toronto is 6-1 in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The Red Sox are 6-22 in their last 28 games as home underdogs.  Roll with the Blue Jays Thursday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors ML -112

The Toronto Raptors blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half over the Celtics in Game 2.  It was all Marcus Smart as he went 5-of-6 from 3-point range in the 4th quarter alone and was unconscious.  I don’t see that happening again.

Now down 0-2, the Raptors are in must-win mode, and I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done in Game 3 and get back into this series.  They clearly have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.

Indeed, the Raptors shot just 36.9% in Game 1 and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Then they shot just 40% in Game 2 and 11-of-40 (27.5%) from 3-point range.  They are now 21-of-80 (26.3%) from distance in the series while Boston is 32-of-77 (41.6%).  That discrepancy can’t continue.  Toronto shoots 37.4% on the season while Boston shoots 36.5%.

The Raptors are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss.  Toronto is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100)

The Cleveland Indians have split the first two games of this series.  After dropping Game 1 by a final of 2-1, they bounced back with a 10-1 victory in Game 2.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight and win this game by multiple runs over the lowly Kansas City Royals.

Triston McKenzie is a big reason why the Indians could afford to trade Mike Clevinger.  McKenzie is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in two starts this season with 13 K’s in 10 innings.  He isn’t getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.

Jake Junis is 0-0 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in three starts this season for the Royals.  Junis hates facing the Indians, going 3-6 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 11 career starts against them.  That includes 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two, allowing 10 earned runs and 20 base runners in 10 innings.

The Indians are 7-1 in their last eight games after scoring five or more runs in their previous game.  Cleveland is 11-2 in its last 13 road games.  The Indians are 39-12 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Royals are 28-74 in their last 102 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 47-23 in the last 70 meetings.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -116

The Toronto Blue Jays are 18-16 this season and in the playoff race.  They are coming off two straight losses by one run each and will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  We are getting them at a great value here as short favorites over the Miami Marlins.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been an excellent addition to the Toronto rotation this offseason.  He is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in four road starts.  Ryu is also 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in five career starts against Miami.

The Blue Jays are 43-20 in their last 63 interleague games as favorites.  The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Miami is 2-7 in its last nine games as home underdogs.  The Marlins are 18-41 in their last 59 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

20* Heat/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5

The Milwaukee Bucks lost Game 1 to the Orlando Magic last series and promptly bounced back with four straight double-digit victories.  While it won’t come as easily against the Miami Heat, I do expect the Bucks to bounce back with a win and cover in Game 2 tonight.

The Bucks shot just 14-of-26 (53.8%) from the free throw line in Game 1 while theHeat shot 25-of-27 (92.6%).  That was the difference.  Also, the Bucks only had one day to prepare for Miami, while the Heat had a whole week to prepare for Milwaukee after sweeping the Pacers. Look for Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments leading into Game 2.

The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games off a SU win by more than 10 points.  Milwaukee is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss, including 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-109)

The Atlanta Braves have scored a combined 18 runs the past two days and are hot at the plate.  I’ll gladly back them on the Run Line again today against the hapless Boston Red Sox, who are already looking forward to next year.

Ian Anderson was great in his first start of the season, limiting the Yankees to one run and three base runners across 6 innings of a 5-1 victory on August 26th.  He is a nice young talent that will shut down the Red Sox today.

Ryan Weber has been rocked in every start this season.  He is 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA and 2.400 WHIP in three starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 24 base runners and 5 homers in 10 innings of work.

Atlanta is 17-2 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, winning by 2.8 runs per game on average.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto ML -120

I cashed with the Celtics in Game 1, but I’m taking the Raptors to bounce back in Game 2.  I do believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, but it has seven games written all over it.

Toronto shot very poorly in Game 1.  They made just 36.9% from the field and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  The Celtics shot 47% from the field and 17-of-39 (43.6%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be a lot more in the Raptors’ favor tonight.

Toronto is 13-3 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games off an ATS loss.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder showed some resiliency fighting back from an 0-2 deficit to tie this series.  Now they will show it again after their worst performance of the series in Game 5 and come back with a much better effort in Game 6.

The Thunder shot just 31.5% as a team and 7-of-46 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 5.  That’s not going to happen again.  The Rockets aren’t a very good defensive team with their small ball lineup, so it was more of a case of the Thunder just missing good looks in Game 5 than Houston’s D.

Houston is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games off a win by 30 points or more.  The Rockets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  Oklahoma City is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog.  The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-120)

The Atlanta Braves just hung 12 runs on the Phillies yesterday en route to victory and should stay hot at the plate today against the hapless Boston Red Sox.  While the Braves are in 1st place in the NL East and playing for something, the Red Sox are already looking forward to next year.

Boston sits at just 12-22 on the season behind atrocious pitching as opponents are hitting .288 against them and scoring 6.1 runs per game.  Boston starter Colton Brewer is 0-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.838 WHIP in three starts this season.

The Braves have a huge advantage on the mound in this one.  Max Fried has been dominant this season, going 5-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in seven starts.  The Braves are a perfect 7-0 in Fried’s seven starts this season and improve to 8-0 with a win by two runs or more tonight.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Monday.

15* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +2

The Boston Celtics just swept the Philadelphia 76ers and are ready to try and take down the defending champs starting with Game 1 of this series Sunday.  Give the Raptors some credit for what they’ve done this season, but they clearly aren’t as good without Kawhi Leonard.

Boston went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against Toronto in the regular season.  That includes a 22-point win and a 16-point win as they were clearly the dominant team in the head-to-head matchup.  And I expect that to carry over into the playoffs.  The wrong team is favored in Game 1 here.

Boston is 9-1 ATS when playing with three or more days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins 70% or more of their games this season.  The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs.  Take the Celtics Sunday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-126)

The Minnesota Twins have now lost four straight coming in.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after getting swept in their double-header against the lowly Detroit Tigers yesterday.

Kenta Maeda has proven to be a great addition to the rotation this offseason after all the success he had with the Dodgers previously.  Maeda is 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.709 WHIP in six starts this season with 40 K’s and only three homers and seven walks allowed in 36 2/3 innings.

Casey Mize is a big prospect for the Tigers, but he has been a disappointment thus far.  Mize is 0-1 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.828 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 runs and 14 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.

Minnesota is 40-10 as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last two seasons, winning by 2.6 runs per game on average in this spot.  Detroit is 12-41 as a home dog of +125 or more over the last two seasons, losing by 3.2 runs per game.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after erasing an 0-2 deficit to win Games 3 and 4 and tie this series back up.  Now they take control of it with another victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Thunder opened the series as 1-point favorites in Game 1, and are now 5.5-point underdogs in Game 5.  That’s a 6.5-point adjustment, and I don’t agree with it.  I believe the wrong team is favored once again in Game 5 tonight.

The Rockets have shot worse than 44% from the field in eight of their last 11 games overall.  Shots just aren’t coming as easily for the Rockets, and I think too much is being made of Russell Westbrook coming back for this game.  He isn’t going to be back to full strength and there will be some rust and chemistry issues.

The Thunder are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -120

The Philadelphia Phillies picked up a huge win yesterday in extra innings over the Braves to cut into their deficit in the NL East.  But it was all for not if they don’t win today, and I expect them to get the job done and win their 5th straight game overall.

Zach Eflin is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 4-3 with a 3.83 ERA in eight career starts against Atlanta, including 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts against the Braves, allowing just three earned runs in 16 innings.

The washed up Josh Tomlin gets the ball for the Braves.  He is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in two starts this season.  One of those starts came against the Phillies on August 23rd where he allowed four earned runs and three homers in just 3 innings of work.

Tomlin is 2-10 (-11.6 units) against the money line in all starts over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 3-13 in their last 16 games as road underdogs.  Philadelphia is 4-0 in its last four home games.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -125

The St. Louis Cardinals got embarrassed 14-2 by the Cleveland Indians yesterday in Game 1 of this series.  Look for them to bounce back in a big way with ace Jack Flaherty on the mound.

Flaherty pitched like a Cy Young candidate last year when he went 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.968 WHIP across 33 starts.  He is back at it again in 2020 at 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.732 WHIP in three starts.

Carlos Carrasco is now 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in six starts this season for the Indians.  He has really struggled in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 7.51 ERA and 2.085 WHIP.  That’s really concerning when you consider he faces the Tigers, Pirates and Cubs.

The Indians are 3-15 in their last 18 games as underdogs.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven interleague games as favorites.  Take the Cardinals Saturday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -138

The Philadelphia Phillies (12-14) have some ground to make up on the Atlanta Braves (18-12) in the NL East.  It starts with Game 1 of this series Friday, and I like their chances to get a victory due to their huge edge on the mound.

Zack Wheeler has proven to be a great addition to Philadelphia’s rotation from New York.  Wheeler is 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in five starts this season.  He is 6-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 15 career starts against Atlanta, holding them to two runs and five base runners in 7 innings on August 22nd in his lone start against them this season.

Robbie Erlin is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his two starts this season, but he is only averaging four innings per start, so the Phillies will get into Atlanta’s bullpen early in this one.  Erlin is 13-20 with a 4.60 ERA in his seven seasons in the big leagues, and most of those were spent in pitcher-friendly San Diego.

The Braves are a woeful 1-12 in their last 13 games as road underdogs.  The Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the Phillies Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -129 (Game 1)

The Cincinnati Reds have lost four straight overall, including the first two games of this series to Milwaukee.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory as a result, and I expect them to get one with their ace on the mound in Game 1 of this series Thursday.

Sonny Gray was phenomenal in his first season in Cincinnati last year, and that has carried over into 2020.  Gray is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in in six starts this season, allowing just 9 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings with 51 K’s.  Gray is 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA in seven career starts against Milwaukee.

Adrian Houser is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three starts.  Houser has never beaten the Reds, going 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA in two career starts against them, both of which came last season.  Take the Reds in Game 1 Thursday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -107

I was on the Rockies +151 yesterday and cashed as they ended their seven-game losing streak.  Now I’m on the Diamondbacks today as they will end their six-game skid at a much more reasonable -107 price.

The Diamondbacks should be bigger favorites with Alex Young on the mound.  He is 0-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in two starts this season.  Young has never lost to the Rockies, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two career starts against them.

German Marquez is 2-4 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three.  Marquez is 3-5 with a 4.65 ERA in 14 career starts against Arizona, including 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last two.

The Diamondbacks are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, including 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Arizona.  Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver +3

It’s now or never for the Denver Nuggets, who find themselves in a 1-3 hole to the Utah Jazz with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight.  I expect them to get the job done and extend this series to a 6th game.

The Jazz only won 129-127 in Game 4 as 3.5-point favorites despite shooting 57.5% from the field and making 19 more free throws than Denver.  Both of those things aren’t going to happen again, and thus the Nuggets should be able to win.

I was on the Nuggets in Game 4 and cashed, and I’m on them again for similar reasons.  They were 4.5-point favorites over the Jazz in Game 1, and now they are 3-point underdogs in Game 5.  That’s a 7.5-point adjustment and too much.

The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +151

The Colorado Rockies have lost seven straight to the Astros and Dodgers, two of the best teams in baseball.  They are now undervalued as a result and should not be this big of underdogs to Arizona, if underdogs at all.

It’s not like the Diamondbacks are playing any better.  They are 0-5 in their last five games overall with all five losses coming by 3 runs or more, including three losses to the lowly Giants.  They have scored a total of 6 runs in those five losses, averaging a paltry 1.2 runs per game.

Ryan Castellani is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in three starts for the Rockies this season.  He’ll be opposed by Merrill Kelly, who is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in three career starts against Colorado, allowing 15 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.  Roll with the Rockies Monday.

15* Lakers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are catching too many points in Game 4 tonight as they try and square this series.  They upset the Lakers in Game 1, and the Lakers understandably came back with a big effort in Game 2.  

But the Blazers gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 3 and lost 108-116 as 8-point dogs.  They will play an even better game here with their season essentially on the line.

It’s only a matter of time before the Blazers shoot the ball better in this series.  They shot 39.2% in Game 1, 40% in Game 2 and 41.1% in Game 3.  The Lakers shot 50% in Game 3 and they still only lost by 8.  Only a slight improvement will have them covering this 7.5-point spread with ease.

The Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Blazers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland has just one loss by more than 8 points since the restart, which is a span of 12 games.  Take the Blazers Monday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5

With their season essentially on the line, the Oklahoma City Thunder came through with a huge 119-107 (OT) victory over the Houston Rockets in Game 3.  They had to battle adversity and poor officiating down the stretch of regulation to get the win.

The way they won that game will give the Thunder a lot of confidence heading into Game 4 tonight to try and square this series.  And I expect it to pay dividends for them in the 4th quarter.

The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have shown that in their last two games, limiting the Rockets to just 41.8% shooting in Game 2 and 41.3% shooting in Game 3.  It’s a Rockets team that just hasn’t shot it very well since the restart because they have such poor shot selection.  They have been held to less than 44% in eight of their last 10 games overall.

Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as underdogs.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5

The Denver Nuggets were embarrassed in Games 2 and 3 and will come back with their biggest effort of the series in Game 4 to try and square it at 2-2.  

From a line value prospective alone this is the play with the Nuggets as 3.5-point dogs when you consider they were 4.5-point favorites in Game 1, an 8-point adjustment.

Denver is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five ATS over the last three seasons. Utah is 4-15-2 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Phillies/Braves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +110

Another blown lead by one of my baseball premium plays in the late innings.  It’s getting old, but we will hop back on the Phillies today after they blew a 4-0 lead to the Braves in the 7th inning and lost 5-6.

Now the Phillies will be motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series.  And I like their chances with Zach Eflin on the mound.  He is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves, including 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against them, allowing zero earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.

Josh Tomlin is a veteran, washed up starter who will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Braves.  The 35-year old has hardly pitched at all over the past couple seasons and should not be a favorite in this matchup.

Tomlin is 2-9 (-10.5 units) against the money line in all starts over the last three seasons.  Tomlin is 0-7 (-8.8 units) against the money line vs. poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game over the last three seasons.  Take the Phillies Sunday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -114

The Philadelphia Phillies have now dropped four straight games and will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday.  Bryce Harper will return to the lineup today for a potent Phillies offense that is averaging 5.5 runs per game overall and 6.7 runs per game on the road.

Zack Wheeler has proven to be a great addition to Philadelphia’s rotation from the Mets.  He is 3-0 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.208 WHIP through four starts this season.  He just beat his former team in the Mets by holding them to only two earned runs over seven innings of a 6-2 victory on August 16th.

Robbie Erlin makes just his second start of the season for the Braves.  He is 13-20 with a 4.60 ERA over 323 innings in seven seasons in the big leagues.  And Erlin won’t have three of his best hitters in support as Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis are all on the 10-Day IL.

The Braves are 3-13 in their last 16 games as underdogs.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

20* Rockets/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5

It’s now or never for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They blew a 59-53 halftime lead in Game 2 and got killed in the 2nd half.  Look for them to respond in a big way today to take Game 3 and avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole.

The Thunder haven’t shot the ball up to their potential in either game yet.  They shot just 44% in Game 1 and 44.3% in Game 2.  And it’s not like the Rockets are some defensive juggernaut with their small ball lineup, either.  Scoring only 108 and 98 points, respectively, in the first two games of this series is unacceptable.

Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as underdogs overall.  OKC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston, so it had covered five straight prior to the first two games of this series.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.