15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International +3

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  But all four of those games were at home against some suspect competition in FCS Merrimack, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee and a LA Tech team that lost its starting QB to injury early.  This will be Kennesaw State's first road game since losing 56-9 at Indiana on September 6th.

The FIU Panthers held a players-only meeting prior to last week, and it paid huge dividends in a 25-6 upset win at 10-point dogs at Western Kentucky.  Sitting at 1-1 in the conference and trailing 2-0 Kennesaw State, this is a must-win game for them as they return home this week.  This is 'Vice Night' in Miami and it will be a great home atmosphere for the Panthers as fans show out for this annual event.

There's nothing to like about this Kennesaw State offense.  The Owls rank 110th in scoring at 22.0 points per game, 89th at 363 yards per game and 79th at 5.6 yards per play.  This despite facing a very easy schedule to this point.  FIU held a high-powered WKU offense to just 6 points last week and I think they will build off that performance by shutting down a much weaker Owls offense this week.

FIU has the better QB in Keyone Jenkins, and they also have the best player on the field in RB Kejon Owens, who has rushed for 658 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per carry this season.  Owens rushed for 195 yards and a score against WKU last week, and they will force feed him again.  They should have a lot of success on the ground against a Kennesaw State defense that ranks 94th in allowing 156.8 rushing yards per game.

The Panthers want revenge from a 27-26 loss to Kennesaw State as 9-point road favorites last season.  Jenkins threw for 204 yards and 3 TD on only 22 attempts, and the Panthers rushed for 196 yards in the loss.  Now they go from 9-point road favorites last season to 3-point home dogs in the rematch this season.  There's clearly value here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Florida International Tuesday.

20* Texans/Seahawks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +3.5

I love the spot for the Houston Texans this week.  They are coming off their bye week and they have found their groove after an 0-3 start to the season with three straight one-score losses where they breaks didn't go their way late in games.  They left no doubt in their last two games, crushing the Titans 26-0 at home and the Ravens 44-10 on the road.

I like the fact that CJ Stroud found his rhythm in those two games leading the Texans to 353 total yards against the Titans and then 417 against the Ravens while throwing 4 TD passes against Baltimore.  He is forming chemistry with several of his young talented receivers, and they should be even sharper on offense coming out of the bye week.

I also like the fact that the Texans have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Texans rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 265.8 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They will wreak havoc in the opposing backfield against Sam Darnold, and I love that the Texans have one of the best shutdown corners in the league in Derrick Stingley to match up against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is far and away Darnold's favorite target this season.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks.  They have alternated home and road games all season with a lot of travel involved.  Their trip to Jacksonville last week was as long as it gets, so they had to return home from that.  They have also played three straight one-score games that went down to the wire, so there have been no breaks for them.  And it's starting to show with the defense getting decimated by injuries.

CB Devon Witherspoon, FS Julian Love and CB Riq Woolen are all banged up with the first two questionable to make their returns this week.  LB Derick Hall is out and OT Josh Jones is questionable.  The Texans are the much healthier team coming into this one.

The Seahawks have huge home/road spits under Mike McDonald.  The Seahawks are actually 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in 11 road games under McDonald.  However, they are just 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS in their 12 home games under him.  That includes outright losses to the 49ers and Bucs already this season with their lone home win coming against the lowly Saints.

The Texans will have 15 days in between games, and teams on the road in this spot at 20-11 ATS since 2003.  I don't think there is much separating these teams, so if you're going to give me +3.5 in an evenly matched game on the team with the massive rest advantage, plus fading the team with zero home-field advantage, I'm going to take it.  Bet the Texans Monday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books continue to set the total in this series too short.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games with 13 combined runs in Game 2, 17 in Game 3, 10 in Game 4, 8 in Game 5 and 8 in Game 6.  The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of them, an 9 or more in nine of them.

Keep in mind these teams combined for only 8 runs in Game 6 only because they combined to strand bases loaded with less than two outs three times!  The Mariners and Blue Jays combined for 18 hits and 10 walks, so 28 base runners and only managed 8 runs.  There's so much room for more runs, which is why this 7.5 number is such a good value.

Like many of these Mariners starters, George Kirby has huge home/road splits.  Kirby is 5-4 with a 5.16 ERA in 11 road starts this season.  He is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three playoff starts.  Kirby allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings in a 13-4 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 3.  He is now 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings.

Shane Bieber has allowed at least 2 earned runs in four consecutive starts and a total of 5 homers in 20 innings in those four starts.  Both bullpens are shaky to say the least as these offenses continue having the advantage in the later innings.  Now that these hitters have seen these relievers multiple times, it's only an even bigger advantage for them tonight.  Bet the OVER in Game 7 Monday.

15* Bucs/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 52.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now with an elite offense and a banged up defense.  That's especially the case when they are playing at home in a dome as Jared Goff has always been better in his career with controlled conditions inside a dome.

The Lions are scoring 31.8 points per game overall and 43.0 points per game at home this season. They are fully healthy on offense, but that's not the case on defense.  Their secondary is absolutely decimated as they will be without three starters in CB Terrion Arnold, SS Brian Branch and FS Kerby Joseph.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddox is out as well.  DT DJ Reader and DT Alim McNeil are both questionable and they are the Lions' two best run-stuffers.

Baker Mayfield is the MVP of the league to this point and will take advantage of this depleted Detroit secondary by being able to keep up with Goff in a shootout.  Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points per game.  This despite numerous injuries to all of his biggest playmakers on offense throughout the season.  It doesn't matter who is in there, Mayfield is going to find a way to move the football and score points.

That's why I'm not too concerned the Bucs will for sure be without Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. tonight.  They've been without Irving and Godwin Jr. for the majority of the season anyway.  Mike Evans is supposed to make his return from injury this week, and Emeka Egbuka is at least questionable.  Either way, I trust the healthy receivers in Evans, Shepard, Johnson, Miller and TE Otton to make plays against this Detroit secondary.

This Tampa Bay defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 24th in the NFL allowing 25.2 points per game.  They allowed 27 points to the Jets, 31 to the Eagles, 35 to the Seahawks and 19 to the 49ers in their last four games coming in.  No question the Lions are going to get into the 30's with ease tonight, which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER 52.5 ticket because they aren't going to be able to stop the Bucs, either.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Bucs last four games overall with 56 or more combined points in three of those four games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Lions last five games overall with 61 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Falcons/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are just too decimated with injuries right now to be favored over the Atlanta Falcons.  Combine that with the fact that the Falcons are arguably the most underrated team in the NFL when you break down the numbers, and I'm on them this week.  I grabbed this +3.5 prior to their game with the Bills last week expecting them to win that game outright, so the +3.5 wouldn't be there.  I was correct in that assumption, so all my long-term clients should have a better number than this game will close.  If you get less than +3 then just bet the Falcons on the Money Line, and/or use the Falcons in teasers with the Patriots and Vikings.

This San Francisco defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  The 49ers have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

What gets slept on with the Falcons is just how improved their defense is this season.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense at 253.4 yards per game and 7th at 4.8 yards per play.  They did a great job of drafting pass rushers and they are making an immediate impact.  They held Josh Allen and the Bills to just 14 points last week on a fast track in Atlanta while sacking in four times.

The Falcons will make life tough on Mac Jones and this decimated 49ers offense as well.  Brock Purdy wasn't healthy enough to return this week, and they are still without Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling was just put on IR as well.

The Falcons are outgainng opponents by 125.4 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play on the season.  Those are elite numbers, making them one of the most underrated teams in the NFL when you compare how most books have them power rated.  They will continue to be a money maker moving forward, especially against a depleted 49ers team this week.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Falcons/49ers NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They continue to have a very good offense despite the injuries, but the defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  And now they are facing a Falcons team with an explosive offense and this has the makings of a shootout.

The 49ers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 47 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

Mac Jones will get the start again this week and he has proven to be great working under Kyle Shanahan.  Jones threw for 347 yards against the Bucs, 342 yards against the Rams, 284 yards against the Cardinals and 279 yards against the Saints in his four starts.  This despite being without all of his top weapons at receiver.  But reinforcements are on the way now with both TE George Kittle and WR JuJuan Jennings expected to return from injury this week.  And he has already formed a great rapport with Kendrick Bourne.  Jones is ready to try and keep up with the Falcons in a shootout, which he is going to have to do with the Falcons scoring at will in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books continue to set the total in this series too short.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four games with 13 combined runs in Game 2, 17 combined runs in Game 3, 10 combined runs in Game 4 and 8 in Game 5.  The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 8 or more combined runs in nine of them, an 9 or more combined runs in eight of them.

This will be a starting pitching rematch from Game 2 when the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 10-3.  Trey Yesavage allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings to take the loss, while Logan Gilbert only lasted 3 innings while giving up 3 runs.  Gilbert has huge home/road splits this season and in his career.  Gilbert is 4-4 with a 4.65 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

Both bullpens are shaky to say the least as these offenses continue having the advantage in the later innings.  Now that these hitters have seen these relievers multiple times, it's only an even bigger advantage as this series goes on.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 53.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 6-0 to the OVER this season instead of 4-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their four OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers and 57 combined points with the Panthers to sail OVER those totals.  Four of their six games were played outdoors on grass, and the two games inside AT&T Stadium in perfect conditions were the 77 points with the Giants and the 80 with the Packers.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 387.5 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin returning and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st allowing 30.7 points per game, 32nd allowing 411.7 total yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs and LB Overshown.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Washington offense is going to do to this Cowboys defense.  The Commanders rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game despite battling through injuries themselves.  But QB Jayden Daniels is back and healthy, and this offense should thrive moving forward as long as he is in the lineup.

This Washington defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Commanders rank 25th in total defense allowing 356.8 yards per game and 25th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They have played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses as well in the Giants, Raiders, Bears and a banged up Chargers offense.  Against the two best offenses they have faced, they allowed 34 points and 435 total yards to the Falcons and 27 points and 404 total yards to the Packers.  The Cowboys will hang a big number on them today in what will be a big-time shootout.  The OVER is 9-3 in Cowboys last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Chargers OVER 48

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  They have gone for 46 or more combined points with their opponents in five consecutive games, including 57 with the Broncos, 61 with the Titans and 58 with the Cardinals.  Those aren't exactly offensive juggernaut teams.

This Chargers offense may be the best offense the Colts have faced this season.  Justin Herbert has played at an MVP level despite injuries to the offensive line, which are getting better.  And now he gets WR Quentin Johnson (26 receptions, 377 yards, 4 TD) back this week after sitting out last week against the Dolphins, a 29-27 shootout win for the Chargers that saw 56 combined points.

No question the Colts have a potent offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor having great seasons to this point.  They rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.3 points per game and 2nd at 6.4 yards per play.  But the Colts have a clear weakness on the other side of the ball despite facing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They rank 19th in total defense at 329.2 yards per game and 16th at 5.6 yards per play.

The most glaring performance came last week when they allowed 25 first downs and 400 total yards to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals at home.  Brissett threw for 320 yards in the loss despite losing Marvin Harrison Jr. to injury early on.  The Colts were without their top three CB's in that game, and they will be without two of the three for this game with only Kenny Moore expected to return from an Achilles injury.  They will get torched again, and Jones will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +1.5

You're going to hear a lot about how Bryce Young hasn't won on the road in the NFL.  But he hasn't face a team as bad as the Jets, and he hasn't been at the helm of a Panthers team as talented and healthy as the one he will be in charge of Sunday.  This is where Young and the Panthers get that elusive road win this week.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming to the Patriots, who are as hot as they are right now.  They beat the Cowboys and Dolphins at home, and their 30-0 win over the Falcons may be the single most impressive win of the season when you look at what the Falcons have done outside of that game.

The Panthers are as healthy as they have been all season going into this week.  They get back RB Chuba Hubbard, who will form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with Rico Dowdle, who has totaled over 200 yards from scrimmage two consecutive weeks in Hubbard's absence.  The offensive line is playing great, and they could get back C Austin Corbett who returned to practice this week.  WR Jalen Coker is expected to make his season debut, and he was Young's favorite target last season.  Young has already formed great chemistry with WR McMillan, WR Legette and TE Sanders and this will prove to be one of the best offenses in the league moving forward.

The most underrated unit is this Panthers defense, which ranks 9th in the NFL allowing just 308.3 yards per game despite a very tough schedule of opposing offenses to this point.  This Jets offense will be far and away the worst unit they have faced thus far.  The Panthers are nearly fully healthy on defense and get back CB Jaycee Horn this week.  The Jets are a run-heavy team, and the Panthers have been great against the run the last two weeks.  They held Achane of the Dolphins to 16 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago, and last week they held Williams of the Cowboys to 29 yards on 13 carries.  Everyone is sleeping on this Panthers defense.

The Jets are 0-6 SU this season.  They are coming off one of the most misleading results of the season in a 13-11 loss to Denver in London.  The were held to just 82 total yards by the Broncos and outgained by 164 yards.  They had a fumble and a KO return that set them up for short fields, where their offense was stopped and they settled for two short FG's.  They also got a safety.  It was one of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen.

Now the Jets are going to be without their best weapon in WR Garrett Wilson, who suffered an oblique injury late in that loss to the Broncos.  Their offense is going to be even worse as Wilson was the only bright spot on this offense up to this point.  Justin Fields is going to be throwing to the likes of Josh Reynolds, Arian Smith, Allen Lazard and Isaiah Davis.  This is a bad, bad offense.

The defense hasn't been much better.  The Jets are 28th in total offense at 279.8 yards per game and 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Jets are 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  They allowed 34 points to the Steelers, 30 to the Bills, 29 to the Bucs, 27 to the Dolphins and 37 to the Cowboys.  That gives them a recent common opponent as the Jets lost 37-22 to the Cowboys two weeks ago at home, while the Panthers beat the Cowboys 30-27 at home last week.

This is a tough spot for the Jets as well returning home from London and having to deal with the jet lag.  They won't have any home-field advantage as fans are already fed up with this team.  And their two worse performances of the season came in their last two home games in a 20-point loss to the Bills and that 15-point loss to the Cowboys.  The Jets will not be getting their first win of the season this week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New England Patriots -6.5

Normally I wouldn't back a NFL team playing their third consecutive road game like the Patriots.  But this situation is not like most.  Mike Vrabel wants revenge on the franchise that fired him after their most successful stretch in franchise history.  The Titans have gone 4-19 SU & 4-19 ATS since Vrabel's departure, showing just how much he meant to this team.

Now the Titans fired Brian Callahan leading into this game, probably because they didn't want the embarrassment of having him as their head coach for another week.  But there will be zero dead cat bounce here as the Titans are just that bad.  They also lost one of the best offensive line coaches in NFL history as Bill Callahan left with Brian, and that's not good news for rookie Cam Ward moving forward.

Making matters worse for the Titans is that Ward's biggest playmaker on offensive in Calvin Ridley (16 receptions, 290 yards, 18.1 YPC) is going to be out for this game.  What is already the league's worst offense just got even worse without Ridley.  The Titans rank 31st in scoring offense at 13.8 points per game, 32nd in total offense at 232.3 yards per game and 32nd at 4.2 yards per play.

The Titans haven't even been competitive in their five losses this season, which have all come by 8 points or more.  They also should have never beaten the Cardinals as they would have been down 28-6 had Demarcado not dropped the ball going into the end zone celebrating a TD early.  So they really should be 0-6 with all six losses by 8 points or more.

The Patriots are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came to the Steelers where they committed five turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They outgained the Steelers by 166 yards.  They upset both Buffalo and Miami on the road during this stretch, crushed the Panthers by 29 at home, and won and covered at New Orleans.  This is really one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.

This team loves playing for Vrabel and you can see it in their post game celebrations and comments.  He is the ultimate players' coach, getting the most out of every player on the roster.  Drake Maye has made the Year 2 leap and is easily a top 10 QB in the NFL already.  He leads a Patriots offense that is 11th in scoring at 25.0 points per game and 7th in passing at 244.5 yards per game.  The defense is 8th in scoring at 20.0 points per game as this is another great bend but don't break Patriots defense.  They will easily shut down this Tennessee offense this week.

The Titans are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games and have zero home-field advantage.  They already lost by 14 to the Rams and by 21 to the Colts at home this season, and it's going to be another blowout loss for them this week against in inspired New England team playing for revenge for Vrabel.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Vikings +2.5

The Minnesota Vikings return from their bye week much healthier than they went into it.  They were without four starters on the offensive line in their 21-17 win over Cleveland in London.  Well, they could have all five healthy this week.  Green dot Blake Cashman makes his return on defense this week as well.  The Vikings are pretty much fully healthy coming into this game, and it's a big reason I'm on them.

But this is as much a fade of the Eagles as anything.  They were fortunate to open 4-0 this season with four one-score wins and some miracles along the way.  Their luck has run out the last two weeks, losing 21-17 at home to Denver before getting crushed 34-17 on the road by the Giants last week.  I think the Eagles are going through a Super Bowl hangover, and I question how much motivation they'll actually have to dig deep after winning it all last year.  That effort against the Giants last week following a loss to the Broncos says a lot.

The Eagles just aren't winning at the line of scrimmage this season, and I don't think it's fixable.  The Eagles rank 26th in rushing at 95.3 yards per game and 29th at 3.5 yards per carry, while ranking 26th against the run allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game and 24th at 4.7 yards per carry.  They have no passing game, either, ranking 28th in passing at 179.2 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 68.3 yards per game on the season.  This is just not a good team this year.

While the Eagles average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play, the Vikings average 5.8 yards per play on offense and only allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.7 yards per play.  They are 1.4 net yards per play better than the Eagles despite all their injuries and having Carson Wentz at QB.  

Wentz should be even more comfortable in his 3rd start of the season, and no question he will be motivated for revenge on his former team this week.  The Vikings have confidence in him now after leading a 4th quarter comeback in that 21-17 win over the Browns in London.  He hit Jordan Addison for a 12-yard TD with 25 seconds left.  Wentz finished 25-of-34 passing for 236 yards and that TD in the win against what is one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Browns.

Jalen Hurts really struggles against defenses like the one Brian Flores runs, which is a lot of zone blitzes.  The Vikings rank 5th in scoring defense at 19.4 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.8 yards per game.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Sunday, and it's a big reason I like the Vikings as home underdogs here.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs -11.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last three weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens three weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

Last week, the Chiefs kept it rolling with a 30-17 win over the Lions.  That was their 3rd consecutive game scoring 30-plus points.  Now even more reinforcements are on the way as WR Rashee Rice makes his much-anticipated return from a 6-game suspension.  He is probably their most talented receiver, and he will open things up even more for everyone else.  The Chiefs are going to be a wagon moving forward.

If the Chiefs put up 30 points for a 4th consecutive week, they will easily cover this 11.5-point spread against the Raiders.  I fully expect them to do both.  The Raiders are absolutely lost offensively ranking 30th scoring 17.2 points per game.  Geno Smith has regressed, and he just doesn't have weapons due to poor management and injuries.

The Raiders could not afford to lose Brock Bowers, but they are without him right now.  Thyey also could be without their top WR in Jakobi Meyers.  I mean Smith is throwing to guys like Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Justin Shorter and Dont'e Thornton Jr.  This is the worst receiver room in the NFL, and the Raiders just won't have what it takes to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.

The Raiders were crushed 41-24 by Marcus Mariota and the Commanders and 40-6 by Daniel Jones and the Colts in their last two road games.  That doesn't bode well for them to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this week.  The Chiefs also cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week after suffering three early season losses, so they will be motivated.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* Rams/Jaguars NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45

These are two of the better defenses in the NFL with the Jaguars ranking 8th in scoring defense at 20.0 points per game and the Rams 3rd at 18.3 points per game.  Both defenses should have their way with these two injury-plagued offenses in London Sunday morning.  That's especially the case with the forecast calling for a 100% chance of rain and double-digit winds.

The Rams have to be gutted to lose Puca Nacua to an ankle injury last week as he will miss this week as a result.  He has 54 receptions for 616 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for a score in only six games this season.  It's a big blow to the offense, which wasn't nearly as good last year when he was off the field.  Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams and the running game, which is also without his backup in Blake Corum and RT Rob Havenstein.

The Jaguars have faced two really good defenses this season and they were shut down in both games.  They were held to 17 points and 291 total yards by the Texans, and 12 points and 273 total yards by the Seahawks.  The Rams will have similar success in shutting them down, especially since they lost one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets in Brenton Strange to IR.

Both defenses are remarkably healthy right now and will win out in this defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday morning.

20* FSU/Stanford ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 52.5

Florida State is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Seminoles rank 5th in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 536.5  yards per game and 8th at 7.3 yards per play.  Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Seminoles have played three of the best defenses in the country already in Miami, Alabama and Pitt.  Gus Malzahn has made a big difference calling plays, and the Seminoles rank 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds.

The Seminoles are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season.  They went for 65 combined points with Pitt, 84 with Virginia, 76 with Kent State and 80 with East Texas A&M in four of their last five games.  Stanford is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall combining for 68 points with Virginia and 59 with San Jose State.

Thomas Castellanos has been better than advertised, throwing for 1,365 yards and 9 TD while also rushing for 286 yards and 4 scores.  He should have a huge game against a Stanford defense that ranks 107th in scoring allowing 30.2 points per game, 119th in total defense at 418.3 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.

Stanford's offense has been much better at home this season scoring 30 points on San Jose State and 30 on Boston College in its two home games.  They went for 399 total yards against BC and 481 against SJSU.  The Cardinal are a pass-happy offense because they cannot run the football.  They have thrown for an average of 336 passing yards per game in their last three games, and I love backing OVERS in games where at least one of the teams is pass-happy.  Simply put, this total of 52.5 is too low for a game involving Florida State right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati -21.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have quit on their season.  Several guys have already announced they are transferring out and there will be more each week.  They are without starting QB Zane Flores due to injury, and the WR room is banged up as well.  There's a big drop off from Flores to the backup, and I can't see the Cowboys putting up too many points this week.

The Cowboys are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FSC Tennessee-Martin in the opener.  They went on to lose 69-3 at Oregon, 19-12 as 10-point home favorites to Tulsa, 45-27 as 21-point home dogs to Baylor, 41-13 as 20.5-point road dogs at Arizona and 39-17 as 14.5-point home dogs to Houston.

Houston has a terrible offense, and Oklahoma State allowed 39 points and 485 total yards to the Cougars.  So you can just imagine what this high-powered Cincinnati offense is going to do to this defense.  The Bearcats rank 31st in scoring at 36.0 points per game and 2nd at 7.8 yards per play, which is the most important stat to determine how good a team is on either side of the ball.  The Cowboys rank 129th allowing 36.7 points per game, 135th allowing 475.8 yards per game and 131st at 6.7 yards per play.

Cincinnati has a solid defense ranking 34th in scoring allowing 19.2 points per game.  Their weakness if there is one is against the pass, but the Cowboys won't be able to exploit it with a backup QB.  They only have 2 passing TD's all season.  The Bearcats only allow 3.6 yards per carry against the run and will make life miserable on the Cowboys all game.  The books have failed to adjust for just how bad this Oklahoma State team is again this week.  There will be zero home-field advantage as fans are done with this team as well.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

15* Utah/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

BYU is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to facing the 66th-ranked schedule in the country and opening 6-0 against it.  They have padded their stats with home wins over WVU, Stanford and Portland State, and they got yet another miracle win last week over Arizona.  This is where their luck ends against the best team they have played by far this season in Utah.

BYU is a tired team playing for a 5th consecutive week and no must face a very physical team in Utah that will dominate them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  They needed double-OT to beat Arizona 33-27 on the road last week.  They recovered their own fumble that managed to bounce forward for a 1st down on the final drive that allowed them to send that game into OT.  It was extremely lucky.

Utah is a wagon this season.  The Utes are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and every bit as good as that record would indicate.  And despite that ATS record, they remain undervalued due to their 34-10 home loss to Texas Tech.  It was a misleading final and a lot closer than the score suggests as it was a 13-10 game with less than 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter before a confluence of events blew it wide open.  Texas Tech is a national title contender.

Utah just beat Arizona State 42-10 at home, beat West Virginia 48-14 on the road, bet Wyoming 31-6 on the road and crushed UCLA 43-10 on the road.  So they have played a road-heavy schedule, and three of their best performances of the season were on the road.  They will have plenty of fan support for this game being played in their home start of Utah in the Holy War.

Not only is Utah better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, but they have the much better QB as well.  Devon Dampier is a sleeper Heisman Trophy candidate, completing 71.5% of his passes for 1,131 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 378 yards and 5 scores.  Bear Bachmeir is a poor man's Dampier and much less elusive.  He is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1,220 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while rushing for 295 yards and 7 scores.  Keep in mind he has played the much softer schedule, too.

Utah ranks 16th scoring 39.5 points per game, 25th at 459.7 yards per game and 40th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Utes rank 11th in scoring defense allowing 13.8 points per game, 19th at 293.5 yards per game and 23rd at 4.7 yards per play.  They have elite numbers, outscoring opponents by 25.7 points per game, outgaining them by 166 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.

These teams have a common opponent in West Virginia.  Utah beat West Virginia 48-14 on the road, while BYU only beat West Virginia 38-24 at home.  I fully expect the Utes to win this game by a TD or more, so getting a -3 is a great value here.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Alabama ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six games.  This total of 58.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse and 65 with Arkansas in their four games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 1st in scoring offense at 48.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 527.8 yards per game and 15th at 7.1 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.8% of his passes for 1,680 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 117 yards and two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State and 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas in their last four games.

Alabama has had trouble running the football on offense, so they have been more pass-happy this year and that is the perfect formula to torch this soft Tennessee secondary.  QB Ty Simpson is among the Heisman Trophy favorites thriving in Kalen DeBoer's offense.  Simpson is completing 70.9% of his passes for 1,678 yards with a 16-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  

The Crimson Tide got good news on offense this week when RB Jamarion Miller and WR Ryan Williams were both upgraded to probable heading into this one.  After playing three of the best defenses in the SEC in Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri the last three weeks, I fully expect the Crimson Tide to have one of their best offensive outputs of the season this week taking a big step down in class here against this Vols defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on USC +8.5

Everyone is off USC now after losing 34-32 at Illinois and it's now time to 'buy low' on the Trojans.  But there were a ton of factors that contributed to that loss that are getting overlooked.  They were playing their 5th consecutive week, were coming off a late-night home win against Michigan State, and had to travel out East for a 9:00 AM body clock game at Illinois.  

Lincoln Riley has been notoriously poor traveling East at USC.  To make matters worse, there was a bout of food poisoning running through the locked room the night before.  It even kept their green dot on defense in S Kamari Ramsey out of that game, and their defense struggled without him and their top CB.  Both should be back this week.  LT Elijah Page was out as well, so they had to completely shuffle around their offensive line.  WR Ja'Kobi Lane only played 30 snaps in the loss.

The Trojans returned home following their bye week and crushed Michigan 31-13.  They outgained the Wolverines 489 to 316, or by 173 total yards.  What I was most impressed with was the fact that USC won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, rushing for 224 yards and holding Michigan to just 109 rushing yards.  And that bodes well for them to be able to hold up against Notre Dame at the line of scrimmage this week. I also like the fact that this is a night game so the travel East for USC is much less of a factor than it was for that early start time against Illinois.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,852 yards with an 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 44 receptions for 682 yards and 6 TDs.  Having Lane (18 receptions, 313 yards 2 TD) healthy moving forward will make this USC offense that much more potent as he is the clear No. 2.

Since opening the season with a road loss to Miami and a home loss to Texas A&M, Notre Dame has gotten back on track against a soft schedule going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet them early against Boise State where they won by 21 against a 22-point closing line.  I think it's now time to 'sell high' on the Fighting Irish as this will be a huge step up in class for them after beating Purdue, Boise State and NC State at home and Arkansas on the road.

Two key injuries for Notre Dame are getting overlooked here.  They will be without their best offensive lineman and their best defensive lineman this week.  That will help USC be able to hang in the trenches, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Trojans actually win the battle at the line of scrimmage.  C Ashton Craig suffered what is likely a season-ending injury last week against NC State, and injuries to starting centers are as big as it gets in terms of O-Line injuries.  The Fighting Irish will also be without DT Boubacar Traore (24 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks) for this one.

USC has been the better team when you dig into the numbers.  USC is scoring 45.5 PPG, averaging 553 YPG and 8.3 YPP on offense, while allowing 21.3 PPG, 352 YPG and 5.6 YPP on defense.  The Trojans are outscoring opponents by 24.2 PPG, outgaining them by 201 YPG and 2.7 YPP.  Notre Dame averaging 40 PPG, 465 YPG and 7.2 YPP on offense while allowing 20.8 PPG, 349 YP and 5.3 YPP on defense.  The Fighting Irish are outscoring opponents by 19.2 PPG, outgaining them by 116 YPG and 1.9 YPP.  Good numbers, but not as good as the Trojans have put up this season.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on FAU/USF OVER 72.5

Two of the biggest dead nuts OVER teams in the country square off Saturday when Florida Atlantic travels to South Florida.  In fact, they are the top two teams in tempo this season with USF 1st and FAU 2nd both snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  This is the highest total in college football this week for good reason, but it's not high enough.  

This will also be a night game Saturday and perfect conditions for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain.  Both offenses will be looking to put on a show, and both defenses will be gassed by the 2H of this one with how much tempo these two offenses play with.

South Florida is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall and 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games dating back to last season with 77 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  So this total of 72.5 actually isn't that high for a game involving USF.  They will come close to covering this total on their own like they have the last three weeks.  They beat North Texas 63-36, Charlotte 54-26 and South Carolina State 63-14.

FAU is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Owls lost 38-28 at FIU for 66 combined points, beat FAMU 56-14 for 70 combined points, lost 55-26 at home to Memphis for 81 combined points and beat UAB 53-33 for 86 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oregon/Rutgers OVER 59.5

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 63.4 points per game in those 14 games.  This total of 59.5 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 28 points in nine of their last 10 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss and 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss to open the season.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over last week against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Rutgers ranks 33rd in scoring offense at 35.7 points per game, 31st in total offense at 443.8 yards per game and 50th at 6.0 yards per play.  But this is the worst defense of the Greg Schiano era as the Scarlet Knights rank 94th in scoring defense at 27.5 points per game, 88th in total defense at 385.3 yards per game, and an eye-opening 134th at 7.0 yards per play.  It's not like they have played a very strong schedule of opposing offenses, either as they played at least three dead nuts under teams in Iowa, Minnesota and Miami Ohio with terrible offenses.

Now the Scarlet Knights are going to face the best offense they have seen all season in Oregon.  And you can bet Oregon is full of piss and vinegar right now after losing at home to Indiana last week.  I think they will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because that loss to the Hoosiers means they need style points the rest of the way.

Oregon ranks 9th in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game, 24th in total offense at 464.3 yards per game and 17th at 6.9 yards per play.  I fully expect the Ducks to hang a 40-plus burger on the Scarlet Knights this week, and I'm confident Rutgers can get into the 20's with one of the most underrated offenses in the country.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wyoming/Air Force OVER 58.5

Air Force is a service academy so oddsmakers have failed to adjust their totals up high enough for being a dead nuts OVER team.  They have failed to do so again this week against Wyoming, and we'll take advantage today.

Air Force is 6-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 62 points with Bucknell, 79 with Utah State, 86 with Boise State, 79 with Hawaii, 65 with Navy and 99 with UNLV.  Yet the books are giving us a 58.5-point total due to Wyoming's previous reputation, but even the Cowboys have transformed to more of an OVER team this season.

The Falcons have one of their best offenses in program history scoring 38.3 points per game, averaging 490.3 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They have really thrived since finding their QB of the future in sophomore Liam Szarka, who has thrown for 1,021 yards and 8 TD while averaging 12.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 585 yards and 8 TD on 5.7 per attempt.

But the Falcons have their worst defense in program history, which is the reason they are such a dead nuts OVER team.  They allow 40 points per game, 496.7 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play this season.  You just watch them and can see that they have no team speed on defense, and they keep giving up explosive play after explosive play.

Wyoming went for 63 combined points with San Jose State last game and 57 combined points with Colorado three games back.  They did have a lower scoring game against UNLV at home that finished with just 48 combined points in between, but that game was played in hail and wind and terrible weather aided it in staying under.  That won't be the case in this one.

Wyoming went for 413 total yards against San Jose State last week including 304 passing from QB Kaden Anderson, who has made a big leap in Year 2 as a sophomore.  He should have one of the best games of his career against this soft as butter Air Force defense.  But this isn't your typical Wyoming defense.  The Cowboys allowed 28 points to San Jose State, 31 to UNLV and 37 to Colorado in their last three games.  No question Air Force is going to continue scoring at will against this Wyoming defense as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTSA/North Texas OVER 67.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams with great offenses and terrible defenses square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between UTSA and North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  The Roadrunners also don't mind playing fast, and these are two pass-happy teams with great quarterbacks.

UTSA just poured on 61 points against a decent Rice defense last week.  North Texas just allowed 63 points to South Florida last week.  The OVER is 4-1 in North Texas' last five games overall with 69 or more combined points in three of their last four games.

The Mean Green rank 6th in the country in scoring putting up 43.3 points per game.  They average 6.2 yards per play with a balanced attack of 268 passing yards per game and 168 rushing yards per game.  UTSA averages 34.5 points per game and should top that number against this weak UNT defense.

I love both of these quarterbacks.  Junior QB Owen McCown is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Sophomore QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,573 yards with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  UNT head coach Eric Morris is working wonders for yet another QB under him, and his history includes the likes of Chandler Morris, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Ward and John Mateer.

These teams combined for 75 points last season, and they have combined for at least 66 points in five of their last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Purdue after four consecutive losses against an absolutely brutal schedule of USC, Notre Dame, Illinois and Minnesota.  The Boilermakers have played the 16th-toughest schedule in the country to this point, and they finally get a reprieve here against a Northwestern team they can handle.

I came away impressed with Purdue after digging into the box scores of those four losses.  They were -3 in turnovers against USC including a 70-yard INT return TD.  They put up 30 points on Notre Dame.  They were only outgained by 54 yards by Illinois and were dealing with a ton of injuries in the secondary.  And last week's 27-20 loss at Minnesota was the most misleading of them all.  They were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Minnesota 456 to 262, or by nearly 200 yards in the loss.

It's time to 'sell high' on Northwestern off a 22-21 upset win as 20-point dogs at Penn State that got James Franklin fired.  But that was a checked out Penn State team that was coming off a loss as a 24-point road favorite at UCLA the week prior, after losing to Oregon in OT at home in their biggest game of the season.  That's three straight wins for the Wildcats as they also beat UCLA by 3 at home and ULM at home.  They are 'fat and happy' and primed for a letdown this week against Purdue.

The forecast is calling for basically 100% chance of rain and 10-20 MPH winds Saturday in Evanston.  The team that can run the football better will have the advantage, and that's clearly Purdue.  Despite the brutal schedule, the Boilermakers only allow 3.8 yards per rush this season.  Despite playing a much softer schedule, the Wildcats allow 4.7 yards per rush this season.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 66

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this showdown between Baylor and TCU Saturday.  Baylor ranks 5th in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds while TCU ranks 14th snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds.  So these are two Top 15 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions in this game and lots of opportunities for points as a result.

Baylor is the real dead nuts OVER team.  They combined for 62 points with Auburn, 93 with SMU, 72 with Oklahoma State and 69 with Kansas State.  Auburn's offense has proven to be one of the worst in the country since then, and they allowed 38 points to the Tigers.  The Bears are 110th in scoring defense at 29.7 points pre game, 109th in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 81st at 5.6 yards per play.

I'd argue that this TCU offense is the best that the Bears will have faced to this point, too.  The Horned Frogs rank 34th in scoring at 35.3 points per game, 35th in total offense at 439 yards per game and 32nd at 6.5 yards per play.  Josh Hoover is one of the best QB's in the country, completing 64.7% of his passes for 1,893 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Baylor's Sawyer Robertson is better.  He is completing 63.7% of his passes for 2,058 yards with 19 TD on the season, and he's more of a dual-threat than Hoover.  Robertson leads a Baylor offense that ranks 28th scoring 36.3 points per game, 9th at 494 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  This TCU defense leaves a lot to be desired after allowing 41 points to Kansas State last week.  And this will be by far TCU's toughest test of the season defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/TCU ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  They are coming off their bye week and have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for TCU.  Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are a tired team right now.  I think these teams are fairly equal, but the rest advantage for Baylor should have them favored and not underdogs in this matchup.

I would argue Baylor is the better team when you look at common opponents.  Both teams lost 27-24 on the road to Arizona State.  But Baylor was -3 in turnovers in that loss and only outgained by 44 yards by ASU, while TCU gave up 500 total yards to a mediocre ASU offense and was outgained by 229 yards by the Sun Devils.  Baylor beat Kansas State 35-34 at home two weeks ago, while TCU lost 41-28 at Kansas State last week.  

Baylor's Sawyer Robertson has put up Heisman Trophy-worthy numbers this season.  He is completing 63.7% of his passes for 2,058 yards with 19 TD on the season. Robertson leads a Baylor offense that ranks 28th scoring 36.3 points per game, 9th at 494 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  This TCU defense leaves a lot to be desired after allowing 41 points to Kansas State last week.  And this will be by far TCU's toughest test of the season defensively. Wrong team favored here.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/Vanderbilt UNDER 49

LSU and Vanderbilt are dead nuts UNDER teams with great defenses that play slow on offense.  LSU ranks dead last (136th) in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 32.4 seconds, while Vanderbilt ranks 124th snapping it every 29.6 seconds.  Aiding us in cashing this UNDER 49 ticket is the fact that there will be 10-20 MPH winds which will affect the passing game.

LSU has scored 23 points or fewer in five of its six games with the lone exception being against FCS SE Louisiana.  The Tigers were held to 23 points by LA Tech, and they have been held to 20 points or fewer in all four of their games against Power 4 opponents.  But the Tigers finally have a legit defense, ranking 5th in scoring defense at 11.8 points per game.  They have held five of their six opponents to 10 points or fewer!

Vanderbilt has put up some solid offensive numbers this season, but this will be the best defense they have faced this season.  The only comparable defense they faced was Alabama, who held them to 14 points in a game that should have finished 23-14 for 37 combined points but the Crimson Tide scored in the final seconds when they basically could have kneeled on it.  Even then it still finished with only 44 combined points.

The Commodores rank 35th allowing 19.3 points per game and 32nd allowing 313.3 yards per game.  They held Alabama in check, and they will certainly be able to hold this pedestrian LSU offense in check as well to keep this thing well UNDER the total.  Vanderbilt is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine SEC games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Duke ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke ML -120

Duke has been undervalued since misleading losses to Illinois and Tulane to open the season.  They have since showed their true colors and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating NC State 45-33 as 3-point home favorites, Syracuse 38-3 as 4-point road favorites and Cal 45-21 as 3-point road favorites.

Now the Blue Devils will earn their respect with an 'upset' win over undefeated and 12th-ranked Georgia Tech at home Saturday.  The Yellow Jackets have no been impressive in their two road games this season, needing a big comeback to beat Colorado 27-20 and only beating Wake Forest 30-29 as 13.5-point road favorites.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season at Duke Saturday.

That's especially the case considering the Blue Devils are coming off their bye week, getting two fulls weeks to rest and prepare for the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech is coming off a lackluster 35-20 home win at 14.5-point home favorites against a dead Virginia Tech team last week.  A failed 2-point conversion attempt by the Hokies in the 4th quarter is the only reason the Yellow Jackets covered.  They only outgained the Hokies 7.3 to 6.7 yards per play in the win.

The Yellow Jackets have benefitted from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses that can keen up with QB Haynes King and company to this point.  This will be a big step up in class for them defensively against a high-octane Duke offense that ranks 25th scoring 36.5 points per game, 21st in total offense at 467 yards per game and 12th at 7.1 yards per play.  QB Darian Mensah is elite, completing 69.8% of his passes for 1,838 yards with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He plays with passion, and his teammates love him.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UConn +2

Wrong team favored here.  UConn is coming off its bye week getting two full weeks to rest and prepare for Boston College.  The Huskies really get up for these games against Power 4 opponents, and after a fluke loss to Syracuse in OT earlier this season on the road, they are full of piss and vinegar wanting to tase that win over a Power 4 opponent this week.

They get to play a reeling Boston College team that is decimated by injuries and continues to get blown out by everyone.  The Eagles are have lost five straight and are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 10 at Stanford as 14-point favorites, by 4 at home to Cal as 6.5-point favorites, by 41 at Pitt as 6.5-point dogs and by 31 at home to Clemson as 14-point dogs.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 86 points in those four games!

The Eagles are a tired team to boot playing for a 4th consecutive week after physical games against Cal, Pitt and Clemson.  They have played 48 different players on defense this season due to injuries and attrition.  They have allowed 44.5 points per game and 503.5 yards per game the last two weeks.

It won't get much easier against this underrated UConn offense that is coming off a 51-10 win over FIU going into the bye week.  The Huskies rank 22nd in scoring at 37 points per game, 17th in total offense at 470 yards per game and 20th at 6.8 yards per play.  They have great balance averaging 183 rushing yards and 287 passing yards.  Senior Joe Fagnano is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,556 yards with an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Junior RB Camryn Edwards has rushed for 637 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.3 per carry.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on San Jose State/Utah State OVER 64

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Friday night in what should be one of the biggest shootouts of the week between San Jose State and Utah State.  The Aggies rank 13th in the country in tempo snapping the ball ever 23.6 seconds.  The Spartans rank 56th at 25.7 seconds and also like to play fast, so there should be a ton of possessions in this game.

Both offenses are way ahead of both defenses.  Utah State ranks 37th in scoring at 34.7 points per game and 29th at 6.6 yards per play.  San Jose State ranks 119th allowing 6.2 yards per play and 117th allowing 420.2 yards per game.  The Spartans are a pass-happy offense ranking 9th averaging 310.2 passing yards per game and 4th at 42.2 pass attempts per game.  Utah State ranks 122nd against the pass allowing 257.2 yards per game, 123rd in total defense allowing 435.2 yards per game and 125th allowing 32.7 points per game.

Utah State is 4-1 OVER in its last five games going for 70 combined points with Hawaii, 90 combined points with Vanderbilt, 79 combined points with Air Force and 66 combined points with Texas A&M.  San Jose State is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall going for 59 or more combined points in all four, and many of those were against teams that profile more as under teams.  They went for 63 combined points with New Mexico and 63 combined points with Wyoming in their last two games.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Aggies and Spartans with 63 or more combined points in eight of those 10 meetings, including 65 or more in seven of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Utah State -3

I love the spot for San Jose State this week.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home following consecutive road losses to Vanderbilt and Hawaii.  They had a bye two weeks ago so they should still be very fresh even coming back from Hawaii.  And now they are comfortable being back home where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.

The San Jose State Spartans will be playing for a 5th consecutive week, and now are on a short week having to travel back home from Wyoming last week and travel back out to Utah this week for a Friday night game.  Their last four games were all decided by one score, so they have been in four consecutive dog fights including a 31-28 home win over FCS Idaho State.  That fatigue showed in the 4th quarter last week as they were outscored 21-0 by Wyoming in a 35-28 defeat.  It will be hard for them to get back up off the mat following that gutting loss, and they will once again wear down in the 4th quarter this week.

Utah State will test those tired legs on defense by playing fast as the Aggies rank 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds.  Utah State ranks 37th in scoring at 34.7 points per game and 29th at 6.6 yards per play with a balanced offensive attack under Bronco Mendenahll.  San Jose State ranks 119th allowing 6.2 yards per play and 117th allowing 420.2 yards per game.  This is one of the worst defenses in the country.

Utah State has the better numbers, period.  The Aggies average 6.6 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite the tough schedule that has included two of the top teams from the SEC in Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.  San Jose State averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 6.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play despite a much softer schedule.

Utah State is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with San Jose State.  The Aggies need to be more than 3-point home favorites here considering they are the better, more rested team playing in front of what will be a hostile atmosphere.  San Jose State is 0-3 SU on the road this season and won't be getting its first road win here.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* Nebraska/Minnesota FOX ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +8.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now due to their 5-1 start to the season.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were steamed up to 7-point favorites at Maryland last week and needed a 4th quarter comeback to win, 34-31.  Now they have been steamed up on the road at Minnesota this week from -5.5 on the open to -8.5 as of the submission of this pick.

I'll gladly take the value and back the Minnesota Golden Gophers as 8.5-point home dogs this week.  The Golden Gophers are 4-2 this season with their only losses both coming on the road to Ohio State and California.  They are 4-0 SU at home with wins over the likes of Purdue, Rutgers and Buffalo.

This is a tough spot for the Huskers.  They will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game and on a short week to boot.  There was a lot of travel involved flying back from Maryland, so they won't be nearly as fresh and prepared as Minnesota, which hosted Purdue last week and gets to stay at home here.

Minnesota wants to run the football, and the weakness of this Nebraska defense is stopping the run.  The Huskers allow 152 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry this season.  They have been great against the pass, but they also haven't faced many decent passing attacks this season.  Their defense has been gashed the last three games for 30 points by Michigan, 27 by Michigan State and 31 by Maryland.

Minnesota has faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses in Cal, Rutgers, Ohio State and Purdue the last four games.  That's partially why their defensive numbers haven't been as good this year, but they are still solid allowing 21.2 points per game and 308.3 yards per game.

Minnesota simply owns Nebraska, going 5-0 SU in the last five meetings including two outright wins as underdogs.  I trust PJ Fleck and company to keep it close even if they are at a talent disadvantage this year.  Bet Minnesota Friday.

20* Louisville/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +14

We see this story almost every year with Miami.  The Hurricanes start fast, everyone declares them a national title contender, and then Mario Cristobal and company due something to mess it up.  No question it's time to 'sell high' on the Hurricanes after opening 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.

The 28-22 win at FSU doesn't look as good now with FSU dropping three games including upset losses to Virginia and Pitt.  The 26-7 win over Florida doesn't look as good now considering the Gators have 4 losses already.  They 27-24 win over Notre Dame doesn't look as good after the Fighting Irish suffered another loss, and that was in the season opener.  And the win over USF was aided by the fact that USF was coming off two massive upset wins over Boise and Florida the two games prior.

I really like Jeff Brohm in the underdog role.  I also think it's time to 'buy low' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a 30-27 upset loss to Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  But they should be 5-0 when you consider they dominated Virginia in the box score, but gave up two non-offensive touchdowns.  They outgained the Cavaliers 393 to 237, or by 166 total yards.  That misleading final is providing extra line value to back the Cardinals this week.

This is a must-win game for Louisville if it wants to make the ACC Championship Game, while Miami can still afford a loss.  Both teams are off a bye, but that will favor Louisville.  The Cardinals will be looking to improve and will be pissed off coming off that loss to Virginia and will have used these two weeks to get better.  Miami is 'fat and happy' off that win over rival FSU and doesn't feel like it needs to improve.

Louisville is averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play.  Miami is only slightly better, averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.  This line should be single-digits, but we will take the 2 touchdowns and take advantage of an inflated number.  Bet Louisville Friday.

20* Blue Jays/Mariners ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7

The books continue to make the mistake of setting these totals between the Blue Jays and Mariners too low.  They combined for 13 runs in Game 2, 17 runs in Game 3 and 10 runs in Game 4.  After a 7.5-run total in Game 4, they've actually lowered it to 7 for Game 5, and that's great value to back this OVER.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball, and I expect another high-scoring Game 5 tonight.

I like the fact that both offenses already got to see these two starting pitchers in Game 1, and I expect the hitters to have the advantage in the rematch.  Hitters have also seen every reliever they are going to see in this series, so they will continue to pile on the runs in the later innings as well.

The Blue Jays have scored 21 runs in their last two games.  Bryce Miller will not shut them down again like he did in Game 1.  Miller is 5-6 with a 5.36 ERA in 20 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA in nine home starts.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone start against them in the regular season.

I expect the Mariners to do more damage at the plate tonight.  Kevin Gausman is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts against the Blue Jays this season, allowing 5 earned runs in 11 innings.  Gausman is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three career road starts at Seattle, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 7.5

After combining for 13 runs in Game 2, the Blue Jays and Mariners topped it in Game 3 with 17 combined runs.  The books have failed to adjust this total up high enough, and we'll take advantage by backing the OVER 7.5 in Game 4 in what is my strongest over/under release of the playoffs to this point.

Hitters proved that Seattle is not exactly a pitcher's park last night.  These teams combined for 26 hits and 8 homers in Game 3.  The starting pitcher matchup is even worse in Game 4, and both of these bullpens have now been exposed and hitters will know what to expect from every reliever they see.

Max Scherzer is washed, going 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in seven road starts.  Scherzer has been a disaster down the stretch, allowing 21 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 innings in his last five starts for a 9.95 ERA during this stretch.

Luis Castilo is 12-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts this season and lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start against the Tigers.  Castillo does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts against them in 2025 while allowing 8 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-4 after four consecutive losses.  They are 2.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) but actually in second place in the division due to the struggles of the Ravens and Browns.  I think the Bengals will be 'all in' tonight as this is their last stand if they want any chance of winning the division.

The Bengals have played four of their first six games on the road against a tough schedule.  Even their two home games were tough, but they played well in both games beating the Jaguars 31-27 and losing to the Lions by 13 as 10.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 43 yards.  This game Thursday night is the start of three consecutive home games for the Bengals.  The next two they host the Jets and Bears, so they could easily get on a 3-game winning streak here and get to 5-4 on the season and back in contention in the division.

The Steelers are overvalued after a 4-1 start to the season.  Last week, they had a huge rest advantage over the Browns who were coming back from London, while the Steelers were off their bye week.  I backed the Steelers in that game because of it and they delivered with a 23-9 win over Dillon Gabriel and the Browns, a rookie making his first career road start.

The Steelers have been far from impressive in their two road games this season.  They should have lost to the Jets in Week 1, winning 34-32 despite getting outgained 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards.  And we've seen how bad that win has aged considering the Jets are 0-6 now.  Their 21-14 win at New England was even more of a miracle considering they were outgained 369 to 203 by the Patriots, or by 166 total yards.  But they were +5 in turnovers including two turnovers at their 1-yard line when the Patriots were going in to score.

The Steelers may be the luckiest team in the NFL to this point.  They have actually recovered 83% of available fumbles, and you would expect that to be closer to 50% for every team in the NFL.  They have the numbers of a team that would be closer to 1-4 than 4-1.  The Steelers only average 277.8 yards pre game on offense and allow 355.6 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by 78 yards.

The Bengals were in a brutal spot last week starting Joe Flacco on a short week and facing a rested, pissed off Green Bay Packers team coming off their bye week.  They actually trailed by just 6 points late in the 4th quarter and had a chance to win that game as 14-point road underdogs.  Evan McPherson missed two FG's in that game as well, even one where he made it before a Packers timeout took it off the board as he went on to miss the ensuing try.

This might be the best set of weapons of Flacco's career, and he can get it done when he has weapons and should be more comfortable in the new offense this week.  He threw for 219 yards and 2 TD without an interception against a very good Packers defense on the road, and now he should be much more comfortable at home this time around.  He got the ball to those weapons as Chase finished with 10 receptions for 94 yards and a TD while Higgins had 5 receptions for 62 yards.  Their chemistry should be even better this week against a Steelers secondary that has some holes, allowing 245 passing yards per game and 65.8% completions to opposing QB's despite facing Justin Fields and Dillon Gabriel.

Mike Tomlin is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in Thursday night road games in his career as the head coach of the Steelers.  He has been dreadful as a road favorite in his career as well.  Tomlin is 13-26-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more since 2017.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bengals and 'sell high' on the Steelers this week.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

15* Tulsa/ECU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game between Tulsa and East Carolina tonight.  Tulsa ranks 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds, while ECU ranks 8th snapping it every 22.6 seconds.  This is a rare matchup between two teams that rank Top 10 in tempo, and this total of 53.5 is very short because of it.

East Carolina has played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in its last three games against BYU, Army and Tulane.  I think the Pirates will open things up similar to when they scored 38 points against Coastal Carolina in the game prior, and I fully expect them to get 38-plus in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 53.5 ticket.

Tulsa has also faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in their last two games against Tulane and Memphis.  This is a step down in class for them.  They also have a first-year head coach in Tre Lamb, so getting a bye week before this game will be big for the offense.  They will install some new plays and have several new wrinkles for ECU, while also playing a lot more efficiently than they have to this point.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings and would be 5-0 in the last five meetings against this total.  The Pirates and Golden Hurricane have combined for 69, 56, 64, 73 and 79 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  They have combined for at least 56 points in nine of their last 10 meetings as well, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 53.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Blue Jays/Mariners ALCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Toronto Blue Jays ranked near the top of baseball in hitting on the road against right-handed starters since the All-Star Break.  They will get their bats going tonight, and the Mariners should stay hot at the plate in a game that should easily top 7 combined runs.

The Mariners put up 10 runs to cover the total on their own in Game 2, and they should do more damage here against Shane Bieber.  He is 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts this season, and 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA in four road starts.  Bieber allowed 3 runs and 6 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start.

George Kirby is 10-8 with a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts for the Mariners this season, including 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.  Kirby does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 25 hits in 14 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Delaware -2.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are the better team tonight and have a massive rest and preparation advantage over Jacksonville State, so they should be more than 2.5-point road favorites in this matchup.  We'll take advantage as this is one of my favorite plays in college football this week.

Delaware has proven it belongs at the FBS level with a 3-2 start to the season that could easily be 4-1.  They beat FIU 38-16 as 4.5-point road dogs while also upsetting UConn 44-41 as 8.5-point home dogs.  They deserved to win in a 27-24 loss to Western Kentucky as 2.5-point favorites as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 97 yards, but gave up a INT return TD and missed the tying FG.  They were only outgained by 2 yards on the road by Colorado in their other defeat.

Jacksonville State is 3-3 this season with the wins coming against Liberty, Sam Houston State (by 2) and Murray State.  They also lost to UCF, Southern Miss and Georgia Southern.  They have played an extremely easy schedule, and they were fortunate to beat Sam Houston State (0-6) last time out 29-27.  They needed a 52-yard FG at the buzzer to escape with a victory over that terrible squad.

Now Jacksonville State has to play Delaware on only 5 days' rest after playing last Thursday.  Meanwhile, Delaware is coming off a bye week and has had 11 days in between games to get ready for this one.  No question they will be prepared to stop the Gamecocks, who rely heavily on the run and are a very poor passing team.

Delaware has been solid stopping the run, allowing 154.8 yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 195 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, holding them to 40 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season averages.

The Blue Hens have good balance on offense rushing for 146 yards per game and throwing for 280 yards per game.  They are a stronger passing team, and that makes this a great matchup for them as the Gamecocks allow 7.9 yards per attempt against teams that only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, allowing 1.2 yards per attempt more than their opponents average coming in.  Bet Delaware Wednesday.

20* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 7

Nerves were a problem for hitters in Game 1 of this series last night in a 2-1 pitcher's duel.  We saw the same thing in Mariners/Blue Jays Game 1 which was a 3-1 final.  But just like the hitters calmed down and mashed in Game 2 for 13 combined runs yesterday in Mariners/Blue Jays, hitters will calm down and come to life in Game 2 of this series tonight.

Both starting pitchers are coming off concerning results.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings of a 8-2 loss to the Phillies in his last start.  Yamamoto allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, and 6 base runners in 2/3 of an inning in his lone career start against Milwaukee, a 9-1 defeat.

Freddy Peralta allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 12 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in two starts against the Cubs last series.  Peralta allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his last start against them on July 19th.  

The Brewers already have a taxed bullpen after using 6 relievers last night.  The Dodgers blew through their two best relievers in closer Sasaki and setup man Treinan last night in trying to close out a shaky 9th inning after 8 brilliant innings from Blake Snell.  I expect both teams to have to use some of their worst relievers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bills/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

The Atlanta Falcons may be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They had the fluky 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers where they kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory that is keeping them undervalued.  They actually outgained the Panthers by 108 yards and held them to 224 yards in the loss.

In fact, the Falcons have some of the best numbers in the NFL through four games despite their 2-2 record.  They rank 7th in totla offense at 362.8 yards per game and gain 5.6 yards per play, while ranking 1st in total defense at 244.0 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 119 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play this season.

Michael Penix Jr. came back with a big performance after that loss to the Panthers in leading the Falcons to a 34-27 home victory over the Commanders.  That win was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as well as they gained 435 yards and allowed just 296 yards, outgaining the Commanders by 139 yards.  Penix Jr. went 20-of-26 for 313 yards and 2 TD against the Commanders, who have proven to have a very good defense this season.

The Bills are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  They are 4-1 this season but it has been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And they were life and death in the 4th quarter with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

Their luck ran out last week as they were upset 23-20 as 8-point home favorites by the New England Patriots.  Drake Maye torched their defense for 273 passing yards, and this defense is the reason I think the Bills are overrated.  The Bills rank 18th in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per play, and that has come against one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses especially the last four weeks against the Pats, Saints, Dolphins and Jets.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense against an Atlanta offense that has no weaknesses.  The Falcons should be able to match the Bills score for score in this one.  The spot really favors the Falcons as they are coming off their bye week, while the Bills are coming off that physical division game against the Patriots last week.  This line suggests the Bills would be favored by 7 over the Falcons on a neutral, and there's just not that much separating these two teams.  This is a game Atlanta can win outright.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Falcons OVER 47.5

Both the Falcons and Bills have benefited from playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  That fact has kept this total lower than it should be, and I fully expect both offenses to have their way with these two defenses Monday night in a shootout in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.

The Bills rank 3rd in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 5th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 362.8 yards per game and are loaded with playmakers for Michael Penix Jr., who led the Falcons to a 34-27 home win over the Commanders for 61 combined points going into his bye week.

The Bills have faced the Patriots, Saints, Dolphins and Jets the last four weeks, which are four of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Falcons have faced Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, Bryce Young and the Panthers and JJ McCarthy and the Vikings in their last three games.  It's safe to say both defenses will be taking a big step up in class this week, and it should lead to a back and forth shootout as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners played their first series against the Detroit Tigers in pitcher-friendly ball parks both at home and on the road.  Now they get to play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto for at least half of the games in this series, including Game 2 tonight.

Toronto and New York combined for 11 and 20 runs in their two games in Toronto last series.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six, including 11 and 12 combined runs in the two regular season meetings in Toronto.  The Blue Jays score 5.0 runs per game while the Mariners score 4.7 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in the American League.

I think hitters were battling the nerves in Game 1 of this series which saw just 4 combined runs.  I think they will settle in for Game 2, and we will see much more of a slug fest in this one.  I also think the starting pitchers these lineups will face are much more hittable in Game 2 as well.

The Blue Jays will go with rookie Trey Yesavage, who will be making just his 5th start of the season and will obviously be nervous.  The Mariners will go with Logan Gilbert, who has huge home/road splits this season.  Gilbert is 4-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 road starts.  He is 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto, allowing 20 earned runs, 8 homers and 49 base runners in 34 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lions/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City ML -130

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last two weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens two weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

The Chiefs should be able to move the ball through the air at will on a banged up Detroit defense that is missing several key pieces in the secondary.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR, they will be without starting CB Terrion Arnold, and starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both questionable.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddux is questionable as well.

Jake Browning torched this banged up Lions secondary for 21 points in the 4th quarter alone last week, so you can just imagine what Mahomes and company are going to be able to do against this Detroit defense.  I love the fact that the Chiefs lost last week to fall to 2-3, so they will be extra motivated coming into this one.  They still have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL and this is going to be an even bigger advantage for them in a Sunday night primetime game.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have had some very misleading blowout wins and have feasted on a very weak schedule of Chicago, Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati.  They only outgained Cleveland 277 to 249 at home, or by 28 yards.  They only outgained Cincinnati 365 to 322, or by 43 total yards.

This will be Detroit's toughest test by far since a 27-13 road loss to Green Bay in the opener.  While the Lions are 'fat and happy' off four straight convincing wins, the Chiefs are pissed off after losing a game they should have won against the Jaguars.  Patrick Mahomes has been elite in this spot as the Chiefs are 29-12-1 ATS in his career when favored by 3 points or less or as an underdog.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday night.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners played their first series against the Detroit Tigers in pitcher-friendly ball parks both at home and on the road.  Now they get to play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto for at least half of the games in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight.

Toronto and New York combined for 11 and 20 runs in their two games in Toronto last series.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 9 or more combined runs in all five, including 11 and 12 combined runs in the two meetings in Toronto.  The Blue Jays score 5.01 runs per game while the Mariners score 4.7 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in the American League.

The Mariners depleted their pitching staff by needing to go 15 innings to beat the Tigers 3-2 in Game 5 on Friday.  This is a quick turnaround for their staff, and now they are forced to throw their worst starting pitcher in Game 1 in Bryce Miller.  The Blue Jays should crush Miller, who is 4-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 19 starts this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone start against them this season.

Kevin Gausman is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 home starts this season.  Gausman allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his lone start against Seattle this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mariners.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Packers OVER 44

The Packers return from their bye week looking to take out their frustration on the Cincinnati Bengals.  I expect most of that frustration to be taken out on offense, where the Packers should score at will against one of the worst defenses in the NFL to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Packers went into their bye week in a 40-40 shootout tie with the Cowboys and 80 combined points.  Their offense should be even better out of the bye with a return to health along the offensive line.  There's a good chance they get LT Rasheed Walker, LG Aaron Banks and RT Zach Tom back in the lineup this week.  They remain without DT Devonte Wyatt defensively, a loss that is felt even more after trading away DT Frank Clark to the Cowboys.

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team due to their poor defense and all of their talent on offense, even without Joe Burrow.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 61 points with Detroit, 58 with Minnesota and 58 with Jacksonville.  They rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game and 30th in total defense allowing 391.2 yards per game.

Cincinnati has seen enough of Jake Browning, so it decided to trade for veteran Joe Flacco early in the week.  Christmas came early for Flacco getting out of Cleveland and their lack of weapons.  Now he gets to work with one of the best sets of weapons in the NFL led by WR Chase, WR Higgins and RB Brown.  He will get the most out of the weapons on hand, especially with his ability to throw the deep ball and open up more big plays in the passing game for this offense.

The Packers will score in the 30's or more in this one, and the Bengals will be able to get 14-plus to contribute to us cashing this OVER 44 ticket with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Panthers OVER 48.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 5-0 to the OVER this season instead of 3-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their three OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants and 80 combined points with the Cowboys to sail OVER those totals.  This total of 48.5 is too low for a game involving the Cowboys right now.

The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 406.6 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.2 points per game despite some key injuries on offense.  The Cowboys rank dead last (32nd) in total defense at 412 yards per game, 30th at 6.3 yards per play allowed and 29th in scoring at 30.8 points per game.  The loss of Micah Parsons has been felt, and they are without LB Overshown, LB Sanborn, FS Hooker and both starting CB's in Bland and Diggs are questionable for this game.

The Panthers are getting healthier on offense and have some real talent on that side of the ball.  McMillian and Legette are two great receivers, and now TD Ja'Tavion Sanders is expected to return this week.  Jalen Coker was Bryce Young's favorite target last season, and he could make his season debut this week as he returned to practice from IR.  Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards in place of Chuba Hubbard last week, and now he is going to want revenge on his former team in the Cowboys and should be in line for another big game.

The Panthers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and if not for a fluky shutout win against Atlanta where the Falcons kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory, it would be 4-0.  They went for 51 combined points with Miami, 49 with Arizona and 55 with New England.  So this total of 48.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both teams have very poor defenses that will be exposed by two underrated offenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Ravens OVER 45

This total has been adjusted too low for the fact that Lamar Jackson is out for the Baltimore Ravens.  I would argue the defensive injuries for the Ravens are just as, if not more impactful to the Ravens' performance in this game.  We'll take advantage of the extra value and back the OVER 45 Sunday as they host the Los Angeles Rams.

The Ravens are pretty much fully healthy on offense outside of Lamar.  QB Cooper Rush is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.  Rush hasn't had the kind of weapons to work with that he will have in the Ravens.  This offense is absolutely loaded and remains one of the best offenses in the NFL even with Rush at QB.  He should be much more comfortable in his 2nd start in this offense this week.

The injuries on defense are much more daunting.  The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, and they just traded away LB Odafe Oweh.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense two weeks ago.  And a previously dead Houston offense came to life last week scoring 44 points on 417 total yards against the Ravens.

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 35.4 points per game and 31st in total defense at 408.8 yards per game.  If the Chiefs and Texans can torch this defense for 37 and 44 points, respectively, you can just imagine what this high-octane Rams offense is going to do to them this week.

The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 401.8 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  This despite playing a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses in the Texans, Titans, Eagles, Colts and 49ers to this point.  This will be by far the worst defense they have faced this season.

The Rams are 3-1 OVER in their last four games and would have gone OVER this total of 45 in all four.  They combined for 49 points with the 49ers, 47 with the Colts, 59 with the Eagles and 52 with the Titans.  Mac Jones torched them last week for 26 points, the Colts had two TD's taken off the board, the Eagles torched them for 33 points, and even the Titans put up 19 points against this defense that has clearly taken a step back this season.  

The Ravens are 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Buffalo, 58 with Cleveland, 68 with Detroit, 57 with Kansas City and 54 with Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

This might be the toughest spot that any NFL team has to face this entire season.  For the first time in NFL history, an NFL team will be traveling back from London while having to go back on the road without having a bye week.  It's safe to say the Browns are completely gassed and won't have anything left in the tank for the Steelers, who are off their bye week to boot.

I've been looking to fade the Steelers early in the season because they aren't as good as their 3-1 record.  However, a big reason for that was because they were so banged up on defense.  But now they return from their bye week a lot healthier on defense, and this should get back to being one of the best defenses in the NFL which is the case every year under Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers were previously playing without LB Alex Highsmith, FS DeShon Elliott and CB Joey Porter Jr.  Now all three are back in the lineup this week, and the Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye.  Aaron Rodgers will be even more comfortable in the new offense with his receivers and is primed for a big game here.

The Browns just lost to a depleted Vikings team that was missing three starters on the offensive line with Carson Wentz at QB.  He actually torched their previously dominant defense despite the offensive line limitations and his mobility limitations.  Rodgers gets the ball out of his hands as fast as any QB in the league, which will negate Cleveland's biggest strength in their pass rush.

This Cleveland offense is atrocious, and rookie Dillon Gabriel will be making his first career road start here.  Mike Tomlin is 30-6 SU in his career against rookie QB's, including 16-1 at home with the lone loss coming to Dak Prescott in 2016.  The Browns rank dead last (32nd) in scoring at 14.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 288.2 yards per game and 31st at 4.5 yards per play this season.  Tomlin and this healthy Steelers defense will make life miserable on Gabriel for four quarters.

The Steelers have won 8 consecutive games coming off their bye week.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games off a bye.  The Steelers are 21-0 SU in their last 21 regular season home meetings with the Browns.  Their domination of Cleveland continues this week given the massively favorable spot they are in.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Jaguars OVER 44

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to all their injuries in the secondary.  They will be without three starters in the secondary again this week as CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Riq Woolen and FS Julian Love are all out for a second consecutive week.

Those injuries led to an absolute shootout last week as the Seahawks lost 38-35 at home to the Bucs for 73 combined points.  The Seahawks went for 463 yards but they allowed 426 yards to the Bucs.  Sam Darnold had one of the best games of his career to keep the Seahawks in it, going 28-of-34 for 341 yards and 4 TD in the loss.

The Bucs were without several of their best weapons and still torched this Seattle secondary as Baker Mayfield went 29-of-33 passing for 379 yards and 2 TD.  Now Trevor Lawrence will be in line for one of the best games of his career, especially playing with the confidence of leading the Jaguars to a 31-28 upset win over the Chiefs last week.

Lawrence went 18-of-25 passing for 221 yards and a TD while also leading the team with 54 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.  He is getting more and more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense, and keep in mind he led the Jaguars to a 26-21 upset win at San Francisco the week prior.  Those are two great defenses he just torched, and now he will be taking a big step down in class here against this Seattle defense in its current state.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses through the first four weeks of the season, the Jaguars were torched for 476 total yards and 28 points by the Chiefs last week.  You can bet Darnold and this Seattle offense are going to have similar success here today in what will be a big-time shootout with both offenses ahead of both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Jets NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -7

Note: I also love a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -1/Rams -1 Sunday.

The Denver Broncos are 3-2 but could easily be 5-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 4-1 or better.  They rank 10th in total offense at 355.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play on offense, and they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 16.8 points per game and 5th in total defense allowing 288.6 yards per game.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away the New York Jets' only real weapon at receiver in Garrett Wilson.

The Jets are an absolute dumpster fire this season.  They are the only remaining winless team at 0-5 this season.  They were just blown out by an injury-ravaged Cowboys team 37-22 at home last week, a Cowboys team playing without 3 starting offensive linemen and two of their best weapons on offense in Lamb and Turpin.  Bo Nix and company should torch this Jets defense that ranks 31st in scoring allowing 31.4 points per game.

Justin Fields is 0-26 as a starter when his defense allows 20 or more points.  The Jets are going to allow much more than 20 points in this one.  Fields is so predictable as he just cannot beat teams with his arm.  And now with Surtain taking away Wilson, this Jets offense is even in more of a world of hurt.  Wilson has been targeted just 7 times in 3 career games against Surtain, finishing with 3 receptions for 34 yards and a INT by Surtain.  Backup receivers Irvin Charles and Alan Lazard are out for this one, and losing RB Braelon Allen is a big blow as the Jets had a great 1-2 punch with him and Breece Hall in the backfield prior.

Denver's 21 sacks lead the NFL entering Week 6.  14 of the 21 sacks have come without blitzing.  Their 84 sacks in 2024 were 22 more than the next-closest team.  The Jets have allowed 16 sacks, which is the fourth-most in the league.  They have lost 132 yards on those sacks, the 2nd-highest mark in the league.  They will once again have too many negative plays that will kill them offensively this week as Fields continues to hold onto the ball too long.

Sean Payton is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in international games in his career covering the spread by an average of 12 points per game in those two games.  I love that he has experience with it, while rookie head coach Aaron Glenn looks like he is in over his head already and won't have his players ready to handle the travel as well as Payton will.

Favorites are 37-14-1 SU & 33-19 ATS in international games.  The Broncos have actually had no problem blowing out opponents over the last two seasons, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  In fact, the Broncos are 13-9 SU in the regular season over the last two seasons with 12 of those 13 wins coming by 8 points or more!  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +2.5

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Brent Brennan was dealt a tough hand in his first season last year, but he is proving his meddle largely due to having 16 returning starters and the players he wants in place this season.

The Wildcats have opened 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming in their lone road game at Iowa State, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  It was also a misleading final as they were only outgained by 39 yards by the Cyclones.

But the Wildcats are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgaining them by 241 yards per game and 3.1 yards per play.  That includes their misleading 23-17 win over Kansas State in which they were much more dominant than the final score showed.  They outgained K-State 412 to 193, or by 219 total yards.

BYU is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to facing the 89th-ranked schedule in the country and opening 5-0 against it.  They have padded their stats with home wins over WVU, Stanford and Portland State.  They had a misleading road win at ECU, and they only beat Colorado by 3 on the road.  This road trip to Arizona will be by far their toughest test of the season, and I don't think they should be favored here.

This will be a great atmosphere as Arizona fans are excited about this team, and it's a night game in Tucson with kick set for 8:00 EST Saturday night.  Arizona's defense is elite, allowing 15.6 points per game, 245.4 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  BYU will be without senior LB Jack Kelly and could be without S Thomas Prassas.  This BYU defense allowed 24 points to West Virginia last week, which was playing with 3rd-and-4th string QB's and missing two of their top playmakers on offense.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Michigan/USC NBC No-Brainer on USC ML -135

Everyone is off USC now after losing 34-32 at Illinois and it's now time to 'buy low' on the Trojans.  But there were a ton of factors that contributed to that loss that are getting overlooked.  They were playing their 5th consecutive week, were coming off a late-night home win against Michigan State, and had to travel out East for a 9:00 AM body clock game at Illinois.  

Lincoln Riley has been notoriously poor traveling East at USC.  To make matters worse, there was a bout of food poisoning running through the locked room the night before.  It even kept their green dot on defense in S Kamari Ramsey out of that game, and their defense struggled without him and their top CB.  Both should be back this week.  LT Elijah Page was out as well, so they had to completely shuffle around their offensive line.  WR Ja'Kobi Lane only played 30 snaps in the loss.

Now the Trojans are back home and coming off a bye week, so they will be much healthier against Michigan State.  They are much more comfortable at home going 3-0 and scoring 59.0 points per game while allowing just 21.3 points per game.  For the season, the Trojans rank 3rd in scoring offense at 48.4 points per game, 4th in total offense at 565 yards per game and 1st at 8.5 yards per play.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Waymond Jordan is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 537 yards and 5 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 35 receptions for 589 yards and 5 TDs.  Having Lane healthy moving forward will make this USC offense that much more potent as he is the clear No. 2.

Michigan had to play last week in a lackluster 24-10 home win over Wisconsin.  That's the same Wisconsin team that has been blasted by Alabama and Maryland this season.  In their two road games thus far, Michigan has looked very average losing 24-13 at Oklahoma and coming away with a fortunate 30-27 win at Nebraska.  I would argue this will be their toughest road test yet.

No question freshman QB Bryce Underwood will be good eventually, but he is working with a laughable group of receivers at Michigan that has the case of the drops and just simply lacks the talent that you would expect from a program with the resources the Wolverines have.  USC is going to score at will, and I don't trust this Michigan offense to be able to keep up enough to pull off the upset.  We are getting the Trojans cheap at home due to that loss to Illinois two weeks ago.  Bet USC on the money line Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/USC OVER 57.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-1 OVER in its five games this season.  The Trojans and their opponents have combined for at least 66 points in four of their five games this season, so this total of 57.5 is pretty short for a game involving USC.  They have gone for 76, 79 and 86 combined points in their three home games.

The Trojans are much more comfortable at home going 3-0 and scoring 59.0 points per game while allowing just 21.3 points per game.  For the season, the Trojans rank 3rd in scoring offense at 48.4 points per game, 4th in total offense at 565 yards per game and 1st at 8.5 yards per play.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Waymond Jordan is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 537 yards and 5 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 35 receptions for 589 yards and 5 TDs.  No. 2 receiver Ja'Kobi Lane has missed some time this season, but he is now fully healthy coming out of the bye and this offense will be even more potent moving forward.

USC's weakness is against the run, and that will get exploited by this Michigan rushing offense that is averaging 240.4 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry.  The Wolverines have opened up the playbook for freshman 5-star QB Bryce Underwood, and he's using his legs more now.  The Wolverines will put up plenty of points on this USC defense to contribute to us cashing this OVER 57.5 ticket.  

While Michigan has solid numbers defensively, the Wolverines have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Central Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin.  And they gave up 270 passing yards to Oklahoma and 308 to Nebraska.  They haven't faced a passing attack nearly as potent as this USC outfit, and their defense will get exposed Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Clemson/Boston College ACC No-Brainer on OVER 54

This Boston College defense is atrocious.  The Eagles just allowed 48 points to Pittsburgh and a freshman QB making his first start for the Panthers last week.  They are now allowing 31.6 points per game after also giving up 28 to Cal, 30 to Stanford and 42 to Michigan State in their three games prior to Pitt.

Clemson is a lot healthier on offense now than they were at the start of the season.  The Tigers still have a great offense averaging 6.0 yards per play against teams that only allow 5.3 yards per play on average.  They have averaged nearly 500 yards per game in their last two games against Syracuse and UNC, and they should hang a big number on this BC defense that could be without four starters due to injury.

Boston College has a lot of talent on offense and can do some damage against this overrated Clemson defense.  Sophomore QB Dylan Lonergan has been solid, completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,277 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio while running Bill O'Brien's offense.  The Eagles and Lonergan will be forced to keep up in a shootout with Clemson scoring at will.  Both teams like to play fast with BC ranking 26th in tempo and Clemson 42nd.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/FAU OVER 69.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams in UAB and Florida Atlantic square off Saturday in what should be one of the biggest shootouts of the week.  Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.  UAB also prefers to play fast ranking 44th in tempo snapping it every 25.1 seconds.

FAU runs a pass-happy offense throwing for 318.4 yards per game on 48.4 attempts per game.  UAB is also pass-happy averaging 307.8 passing yards per game on 39 attempts.  The Blazers average 6.6 yards per play on offense and allow 6.6 yards per play on defense with one of the worst defenses in the country.  UAB allows 39.0 points per game while FAU allows 33.4 points per game with also one of the worst defenses in the land.

The last meeting between FAU and UAB saw 87 combined points and 1,098 total yards with a 45-42 win by the Blazers.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/Tennessee OVER 68

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Volunteers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 71 combined points against Syracuse, 89 against East Tennessee, 85 against Georgia, 80 against UAB and 75 against Mississippi State.  This total of 68 is actually short for a game involving Tennessee right now.

That's especially the case when you consider the opponent in Arkansas, another dead nuts OVER team that is 4-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Razorbacks also don't mind playing fast ranking 52nd in tempo, and they now have an offensive-minded head coach as Bobby Petrino takes over as the interim for Sam Pittman moving forward.

Tennessee plays fast and efficiently on offense, scoring 51.0 points per game while averaging 537.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on offense.  Joey Aguilar is a Heisman trophy sleeper, completing 65% of his passes for 1,459 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a pair of scores.  This Tennessee defense is allowing 29.0 points per game and has taken a big step back this season, largely due to injuries at the CB position.

Arkansas has an elite offense scoring 37.4 points per game while averaging 517.2 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  But the defense has been atrocious, allowing 30.0 points per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Razorbacks allowed 41 points and 481 yards to Ole Miss, 32 points and 493 yards to Memphis and 56 points and 641 yards to Notre Dame in their last three games coming in.  They will be forced to try and keep up in another shootout here as the Razorbacks aren't going to slow down this Volunteers offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +2

Kansas State was a favorite to win the Big 12 coming into the season.  But the Wildcats have opened 2-4, though they could easily be 6-0.  Their four losses came by 1, 3, 3 and 6 points.  Now they are home underdogs to TCU Saturday, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats.

TCU is 4-1 this season but the road win at UNC to open the season doesn't look nearly as good now, and they lost their other road game 27-24 at Arizona State.  That was a misleading final as the Horned Frogs were outgained 500 to 261 by the Sun Devils, or by 239 total yards.  They were also sluggish last week at home against a bad Colorado team, winning 35-21 only after a TD pass on 4th down in the final seconds to turn a 7-point game into a 14-point game.  They were +4 in turnovers against Colorado yet still only led by 7 in the final seconds.

TCU will get exposed by a pissed off Kansas State team this week.  The Wildcats will have their full compliment of receivers for the first time this season.  They put up 34 points and 501 total yards on Baylor last week, and they should shred this TCU defense as well.  This pass-happy TCU offense will struggle to move the ball on a K-State defense that only allows 208.3 passing yards per game despite playing a tough schedule of opposing pass offenses.

Kansas State averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 5.2 yards per play on defense, and they are 0.8 yards per play better on both sides of the ball than their opponents allow on average.  TCU has a solid offense at 6.5 yards per play, but their defense allows 5.7 yards per play against team that average 5.7 per play.  So they are mediocre defensively.

Kansas State owns TCU, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ball State +9

I've been very impressed with the improvement of the Cardinals in their last three games after two blowout road losses to Purdue and Auburn to open the season against a brutal schedule.  They came back in Week 3 and beat a very good FCS team in New Hampshire 34-29 at home.  They racked up 413 total yards in that win.  

Then in Week 4 they nearly upset UConn in a 31-25 road loss as 21-point dogs.  They put up 404 total yards on the Huskies and actually outgained them as well.  They got a much-needed bye in Week 5, and used it to their advantage by coming back with a 20-14 upset homer win over Ohio as 14.5-point dogs.  Holding that high-powered Ohio offense to just 14 points is a huge accomplishment.  The Cardinals are now 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the MAC.

This Ball State offense has shown life the last three games and will be able to put up enough points to keep this game competitive.  Senior QB Kiael Kelly is completing 60.8% of his passes while also rushing for 266 yards and two scores.  Junior RB Qua Ashley has rushed for 316 yards and 3 TD while averaging 4.9 per carry.  These are solid numbers especially when you consider the Cardinals have faced the 50th-toughest schedule in the country and some very good defenses.

Western Michigan has faced a slightly softer schedule that ranks 60th.  And I just don't think the Broncos should be favored by more than a TD here when you consider how poor their offense is.  The Broncos are scoring 19.7 points per game, averaging 294.5 yards per game and just 4.4 yards per play.  They cannot throw the ball, and they are an inefficient running team averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 41.2 carries per game.  They were shut out by Illinois, managed just 14 points against Toledo and just 21 points against a UMass defense that is absolutely atrocious.  They won't be able to get margin here.

Western Michigan is also a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week, while Ball State had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher team.  That is a hidden factor here that isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Air Force/UNLV OVER 65

Air Force is a service academy so oddsmakers have failed to adjust their totals up high enough for being a dead nuts OVER team.  They have failed to do so again this week against UNLV, another dead nuts OVER team.  This game will be playing in perfect scoring conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, too.

Air Force is 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 62 points with Bucknell, 79 with Utah State, 86 with Boise State, 79 with Hawaii and 65 with Navy.  The Falcons have one of their best offenses in program history scoring 36.4 points per game, averaging 468 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They have really thrived since finding their QB of the future in sophomore Liam Szarka, who has throwing for 846 yards and 7 TD while averaging 13.0 per attempt, while also rushing for 449 yards and 6 TD on 5.9 per attempt.

But the Falcons have their worst defense in program history, which is the reason they are such a dead nuts OVER team.  They allow 37.8 points per game, 478.8 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play this season.  You just watch them and can see that they have no team speed on defense, and they keep giving up explosive play after explosive play.  They are going to continue to get torched by UNLV this week.

UNLV is scoring 35.6 points per game and averaging 6.4 yards per play this season.  But the Rebels are allowing 26.0 points per game and 6.0 yards per play despite facing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in Wyoming, MIami Ohio, UCLA, Sam Houston State and Idaho State.  I mean they allowed 38 points to Miami Ohio and 31 to Idaho State.  Now they are facing the best offense they will have faced all season by a wide margin in Air Force.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +7

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-1 this season including a 27-10 road win at Wisconsin as 10-point dogs.  They covered in their lone loss in a 24-20 setback as 5.5-point home dogs to Washington last week.  They blew a 17-0 lead to the Huskies, and they will come back highly motivated for a win this week as they get to stay home and take on Nebraska.

Nebraska is also 4-1 but has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with four home games and a 'neutral' game at Arrowhead Stadium against Cincinnati that was essentially a home game as well.  This will be their first true road game, and the Huskers are 2-8 SU in true road games under Matt Rhule.  The Huskers have no business being a full 7-point road favorite in this game.

Maryland is only allowing 13.4 points per game and 4.3 yards per play defensively this season, holding opponents bo 10.4 points per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season average.  The Terrapins are averaging 30.0 points per game on offense, and freshman 5-star QB Malik Washington has been impressive with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 3 scores.

Nebraska has struggled to run the ball the last two weeks gaining 43 yards on 31 carries against Michigan and 67 yards on 31 carries against Michigan State.  They won't be able to run the ball on Maryland, either, and their predictability being too pass-happy makes them easier to contain.  The Terrapins only allow 2.6 yards per carry and 5.9 per pass attempt this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan OVER 47

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team due to having one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles allow 35.7 points per game, 476 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  I know Northern Illinois has one of the worst offenses in the country, but this EMU defense is going to make the Huskies look like they have one of the best.  This total of 47 is too short for a game involving Eastern Michigan.

A big reason for NIU's offensive struggles is due to playing one of the toughest schedules of opposing defenses.  Their last four games have come against Miami Ohio, San Diego State, Mississippi State and Maryland.  This is a huge step down in class for NIU, and they will easily put up their most points of the season Saturday.

Eastern Michigan does have a pretty solid offense scoring 25.0 points per game while averaging 377.5 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They should have plenty of success as well against this tired NIU defense that will be playing for a 4th consecutive week and has been on the field a lot this season.

NIU and Eastern Michigan have combined for at least 47 points in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pitt/Florida State OVER 57.5

Florida State is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Seminoles rank 5th in scoring at 46.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 560.8 yards per game and 9th at 7.5 yards per play.  Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Seminoles have played two of the best defenses in the country already in Miami and Alabama.  Gus Malzahn has made a big difference calling plays, and the Seminoles rank 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.

Pitt likes to play even faster than FSU ranking 15th in tempo at 23.7 seconds per play.  So this game is going to see a ton of possessions.  And I love the move Pitt made last week benching Eli Holstein in favor of electric freshman QB Mason Heintschel.  He went 30-of-41 passing for 323 yards and 4 TD in leading the Panthers to 48 points in a win over Boston College.  Heintschel should be able to keep up with FSU in a shootout in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Alabama/Missouri ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +3

Missouri is one of the most underrated teams in the country and should not be a home underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.  That's especially the case when you consider the massive scheduling advantage working in their favor, which isn't being factored into this line enough.

Missouri had a bye last week after blasting UMass 42-6 at home two weeks ago.  They have basically had three full weeks to prepare for Alabama, and they will be ready.  This will be a raucous home atmosphere Saturday afternoon in Columbia.

This is a terrible spot for Alabama.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia on the road two weeks ago, then got revenge last week in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt that was much closer than the final score suggests.  They scored on their final offensive play to salt it away with only seconds remaining, and that came after Vanderbilt committed two red zone turnovers.  I question how much the Crimson Tide have left in the tank.

Missouri is averaging 45.2 points per game, 547.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 14.6 points per game, 198.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play on defense.  That equates to outscoring opponents by 31 points per game, outgaining them by 350 yards per game and 3.0 yards per play.  Those numbers are absolutely elite.

People are quick to forget that Alabama lost 31-17 at Florida State in the opener.  That loss looks even worse now after Florida State went on to lose to Virginia and Miami.  The 3-point win over Georgia also doesn't look great as that Georgia team is down a few notches this season.  And the Crimson Tide have clear weaknesses in the trenches that will get exposed this week.

Alabama allowed 260 rushing yards to Florida State in the opener, and they allowed 8.0 yards per carry against Georgia and Vanderbilt the last two weeks.  Now they must face arguably the best RB in the country in Missouri's Ahmad Hardy, who has rushed for 730 yards and 9 TD with a nation-leading 570 yards after 1st contact and 46 broken tackles.  Missouri will get what it wants on the ground.

Alabama simply cannot run the football averaging 127.2 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  That makes them very predictable, and Missouri has two of the best edge rushers in the country to put pressure on QB Ty Simpson, who has been great this season but hasn't faced a defensive line as dominant as Missouri's yet.

Eli Drinkwitz is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog at Missouri.  The Tigers are 19-1 SU at home over the last three seasons with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They outgained Kansas by 369 yards and outgained South Carolina by 163 yards in their two toughest home games thus far this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Stanford/SMU OVER 55

SMU ranks 39th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 25 seconds.  The Mustangs really profile as an OVER team with a solid offense and mediocre defense.  They are scoring 34.0 points per game and averaging 6.3 yards per play, but they are allowing 437 yards per game and 5.6 per play this season.  They allowed 48 points and 601 yards to Baylor and 35 points and 519 yards to TCU.

Stanford's offense has come to life the last three games putting up 30 points and 399 yards against Boston College, 20 points and 323 yards against Virginia and 30 points and 481 yards against SJSU.  QB Ben Gulbranson is coming off his two best games of the season.  He went 29-of-43 for 444 yards and 2 TD against San Jose State and 20-of-29 for 286 yards and 2 TD against Virginia.  This Stanford offense is humming right now and will continue to play well against SMU this week.

Stanford's defense is allowing 29.4 points per game, 429.4 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  That includes 315 passing yards per game and 66.7% completions, and SMU should have a big day through the air.  The Cardinal will be without leading tackler Matt Rose (40 tackles) at linebacker.  SMU QB Kevin Jennings is completing 71.4% of his passes for 1,411 yards and 13 TD.

Both offenses have been trending very pass-happy because they cannot run the football, which is what you want for OVERS.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in Dallas this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +19.5

I love the spot for Stanford.  The Cardinal are coming off a bye week with a first-year head coach in Frank Reich, and teams with first-year head coaches always benefit more from bye weeks.  This is a team headed in the right direction with wins over Boston College and San Jose State in two of their last three games with a road loss at Virginia in between, so they are showing great improvement.

Now the Cardinal are primed for their best effort of the season coming off the bye.  QB Ben Gulbranson is coming off his two best games of the season.  He went 29-of-43 for 444 yards and 2 TD against San Jose State and 20-of-29 for 286 yards and 2 TD against Virginia.  This Stanford offense is humming right now and will continue to play well against SMU this week.

SMU is one of the most overrated teams in the country after making the 12-team playoff last year.  Expectations were high coming into this season, and oddsmakers have failed to adjust them down enough for their poor play this season.  The Mustangs are 3-2 SU & 0-5 ATS this season.  They won by 39 as 51-point favorites against Texas A&M CC, lost outright at home to Baylor as 3-point favorites, only won by 18 as 28.5-point favorites at Missouri State, lost by 11 as 6.5-point dogs at TCU and only beat Syracuse by 13 as 17.5-point favorites last week.

That was a Syracuse team coming off a 38-3 loss to Duke that was down to a second-string QB in Rickie Collins, who just hasn't been effective.  Collins threw 3 INT against SMU yet the Mustangs still only managed to win by 13 points.  SMU has a huge road game at Clemson on deck next week in a ACC Championship Game rematch that the Mustangs could be caught looking ahead to as well.  Either way, this 19.5-point spread is too high.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

20* Rutgers/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Rutgers +11

Rutgers has a massive rest/scheduling advantage over Washington Friday night that isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye week getting two full weeks to prepare for this game, which is huge coming off physical games against Iowa and Minnesota that resulted in close losses by 10 and 3 points.  They were pissed off during their bye week and will come out with their hair on fire to try and get that first conference win this week.

This is an absolutely brutal spot for Washington.  The Huskies beat Washington State in the Apple Cup three weeks ago, lost 24-6 at home to Ohio State two weeks ago, then had to travel clear across the country to Maryland last week.  They used a lot of energy overcoming a 17-0 deficit to beat the Terrapins 24-20.  They then had to travel clear back across the country and are on a short week to boot with this being a Friday night game.  It's safe to say they won't have nearly as much energy as Rutgers will this week, and they will be less prepared than the Scarlet Knights to boot.

Rutgers has one of the most underrated offenses in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 39.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 yards per play this season.  They put up 28 points on both Iowa and Minnesota, which are two of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  They also put up 45 points on Miami Ohio, probably the best defense in the MAC.  No question they are going to be able to move the football and score points on this tired Washington defense, so they will never be out of this game with this offense.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

25* MLB Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Mariners +126

Once again, Tarik Skubal is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a big road favorite over the Seattle Mariners in a winner-take-all Game 5.  The Tigers have the worst offense left in the playoffs, and their bullpen is very shaky as well.

Plus, the Tigers are 0-3 in Skubal's three starts against the Mariners this season!  Skubal is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in three starts against Seattle in 2025, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 2/3 innings.  Getting to see him for a 4th time already this season is a huge advantage to Seattle's hitters, which are much more potent than that of Detroit.

George Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with 81 K's in 71 2/3 innings.  Kirby went 5 innings with 8 K's and 2 earned runs allowed in Game 1 of this series against the Tigers.  But those 2 earned runs should have never happened as the home plate ump missed strike 3 on the same batter that homered and was responsible for those 2 earned runs as he should have been out of the inning.

The Mariners were able to rest their best relievers in Game 4 due to the blowout nature of their loss to the Tigers.  They are set up well here with Kirby, followed by their two best relievers in Matt Brash (2.52 ERA) and closer Andres Munoz (1.64 ERA) to close this out once he departs.  Bet the Mariners in Game 5 Friday.

20* USF/North Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 67.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams in South Florida and North Texas square off Friday night in what should be one of the most entertaining shootouts of the week.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in Denton Friday night.

South Florida ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  Despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses including Boise State, Florida and Miami, the Bulls are still scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 446 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  They are averaging 12 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

North Texas ranks 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  The Mean Green are scoring 44.8 points per game, averaging 437 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  They are averaging 18 points more per game than their opponents allow on average this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in USF's last three games overall combining for 61 points with Miami, 77 with South Carolina State and 80 with Charlotte.  The OVER is 3-1 in North Texas' last four games overall combining for 58 points with South Alabama, 83 with Army, 69 with Washington State and 63 with Western Michigan.  Both Army and WMU are dead nuts UNDER teams that play slow and are run-heavy, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have no passing game and their rushing game has been non-existent as well.  The Eagles rank 30th in total offense at 261.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.7 yards per play.  They are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass.

The New York Giants are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state.  They are running the football more with a mobile QB in Jaxson Dart.  They went for 39 combined points with the Chargers and 40 with the Saints in his first two starts.  Making matters much tougher on Dart is the fact that he is without his two best weapons at receiver in Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton.  The Giants are scoring just 17.4 points per game this season ranking 28th in scoring offense.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Eagles and Giants with 33, 31 and 37 combined points.  This total of 42.5 has been set too high tonight, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* ECU/Tulane ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

The East Carolina Pirates are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.3 seconds.  They are scoring 30.4 points per game, averaging 461 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They have a pass-happy offense that averages 315 passing yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving East Carolina.

Tulane has a solid offense scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 5.7 yards per play despite playing a very tough schedule of opposing defenses to this point that has included Ole Miss, Duke and Northwestern.  I think getting extra time for this game will work wonders for this Tulane offense considering former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff didn't transfer in until the fall.  The offense is a lot healthier too now especially along the O-Line.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NLDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Dodgers OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball with unreliable bullpens, and there have been a lot of runs scored in the late innings in this series as a result.

Crispher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, posting a 4.91 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 1/3 innings in three starts against them this season.  Those three starts saw 8, 15 and 15 combined runs going 3-0 to the OVER.  Getting to see Sanchez for a 4th time already this season is a big advantage to Dodgers hitters.

Tyler Glasnow has not pitched since September 27th and the Dodgers must have held him out this long for a reason.  Glasnow allowed 5 earned runs in 2 innings of a 8-7 loss to the Phillies in his lone start against them this season.  He has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 innings.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Dodgers and Phillies in Los Angeles.  Nine of those 10 meetings have seen 8 or more combined runs, so this total of 7.5 is pretty short for a game involving these two teams in L.A.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Liberty/UTEP UNDER 48

The forecast and the pitiful nature of these two offenses are the reasons I'm on the UNDER 48 tonight between Liberty and UTEP in this Conference-USA showdown.  The forecast is calling for steady 15-20 MPH winds which will make passing the football very difficult, and both teams will be more run-heavy than they already are.

Liberty is scoring just 17.0 points per game while ranking 115th in scoring offense and UTEP is scoring just 20.8 points per game while ranking 11th in scoring offense.  Liberty is already a run-heavy offense averaging 40 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They have a poor QB in Ethan Vasko, who is completing just 57.3% of his passes and averaging 2.8 yards per attempt rushing.

UTEP has been very disappointing with 5-star transfer QB Malachi Nelson, who has pretty much been a complete whiff.  Nelson is completing 55.6% of his passes with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He also offers nothing on the ground averaging 0.1 yards per attempt on his 20 rushes.

UTEP has been surprisingly led by a defense that allows 26.6 points per game and 5.0 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season averages.  Liberty is also better on that side of the ball, holding foes to 23.2 points per game on the season.

Liberty is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games combining for 36 points with Bowling Green, 44 with James Madison and 28 with Old Dominion.  UTEP went for just 37 combined points with Texas and 41 with LA Tech in two of its last three games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Yankees ALDS No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.21 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1, 20 runs in Game 2 and 15 runs in Game 3.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 19 of their last 25 meetings.  This total of 8.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to to the short porch in right with gusts up to 25 MPH.

The Blue Jays blew through their bullpen yesterday while blowing a 6-1 lead, and now they are going to make this a bullpen game Wednesday.  The Yankees are familiar with all these relievers and should have another big night at the plate.

Cameron Schlittler has been pretty good against almost any team not named the Blue Jays.  But Schlittler is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in two starts against Toronto this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.  The Yankees blew through their bullpen yesterday, too.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Wednesday.

15* Mariners/Tigers ALDS Early ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +105

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  They carried that momentum into Game 3 with an 8-4 victory yesterday, and now I expect them to close out this series in Game 4 so they don't have to face Skubal again in Game 5.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they have gone 0-8 in their last eight home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 8-1 in its last nine road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen. They should not be underdogs to the Tigers today.

Bryce Miller has absolutely owned the Tigers so it makes sense that he gets this start in Game 4.  Miller is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit, firing 19 shutout innings while allowing just 11 base runners.

Casey Mize is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  He is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two career home starts against Seattle, allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 innings.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* ALDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.19 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 and 20 runs in Game 2.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 18 of their last 24 meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left and gusts of up to 25 MPH.

Shane Bieber has lost his fastball and is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three road starts.  Bieber is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA in seven career starts against the Yankees, allowing 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 41 innings.

Carlos Rodon does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last five starts against them while allowing 18 earned runs and 44 base runners in 24 1/3 innings.  Both bullpens leave a lot to be desired, especially New York's.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* ALDS GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -126

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  Now I think the Mariners take control of this series with a Game 3 win in Detroit.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they went 0-7 in their final seven home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen.  They should be bigger favorites tonight.

Logan Gilbert is 6-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 173 K's and only 31 walks in 131 innings.  Gilbert is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career road starts at Detroit, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 innings.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings with 19 K's in two starts against the Tigers in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is washed up, going 8-15 with a 4.56 ERA in 32 starts this season.  He has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in four career starts against the Mariners, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 30 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners in Game 3 Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 44.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a dangerous offense moving forward.  They just got Xavier Worthy back from injury last week, and promptly put up 37 points on the Ravens.  Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD passes, Worth had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 carries for 38 yards, and this looked like one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Worthy just opens things up for everyone else.  Defenses have to account for his speed and also his ability to run the football.  Pretty soon the Chiefs will get Rashee Rice back from suspension and they will be virtually unstoppable on offense.

The Jaguars are a much more potent offense this season under head coach Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career year in Tampa Bay last season as their offensive coordinator.  Now he is working wonders on Trevor Lawrence, who would have even bigger numbers this season if his receivers didn't drop more passes than any other team in the league thus far.

Even with those drops, the Jaguars rank 16th in scoring at 24.0 points per game and 10th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game.  Lawrence is playing behind one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL, one that is paving the way for the 4th-most rushing yards per game (144) and 5.0 yards per carry behind the one-two punch of Etienne and Tuten.  The Jaguars put up 26 points on the 49ers last week, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Jaguars have solid defensive numbers this season, but it is largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  They have faced the Panthers, the Bengals with Jake Browning, the Texans and the 49ers with all their injuries on offense.  This is a huge step up in class for their defense, and I expect them to get exposed for the mediocre unit that they really are Monday night against Worthy, Mahomes and this now potent KC offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dodgers/Phillies TBS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.79 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy in this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  Snell is 0-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four road starts.  He is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies as well.

Jesus Luzardo is one of the most overrated starters in baseball, and the Dodgers should get to him early and often.  Luzardo is 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 4.16 ERA in 16 home starts.  He has benefited from tremendous run support this season, and that will likely be the case again today.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Patriots/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +8

The New England Patriots are buying into Mike Vrabel and he is getting the most out of them already in his first season on the job.  I still believe he's one of the best head coaches in the NFL in terms of getting the most out of his players.  And now they have a big opportunity to show the world on the national stage on NBC's Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to take full advantage.

The Patriots have great numbers averaging 25.5 points per game on offense and allowing 20.3 points per game on defense.  They have also been great on special teams, which is a staple of Vrabel-coached teams and a hidden advantage they have.  Drake Maye has taken that leap in Year 2, completing 74% of his passes for 988 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

The Buffalo Bills are 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start.  They have been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And last week they were life and death with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

While the Patriots are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL likely not being without a single starter this week, the Bills are banged up.  They have five defensive linemen who are out or questionable and two starting LB's questionable on defense.  RT Spencer Brown is questionable for this one as well.  The Bills are outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play, but they have played the league's easiest schedule to this point, too.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bills pulling the outright upset at home last year, with their three losses coming by 3, 6 and 4 points.  This line should be less than a TD, so getting +8 with New England is a great value as I expect it to be decided by a single score either way.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Tigers/Mariners FS1 No-Brainer on Seattle +120

I love getting the Seattle Mariners as home underdogs in this must-win spot after losing Game 1 yesterday.  This is another classic case of Tarik Skubal getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Mariners have the much better lineup and better bullpen that can overcome Skubal in Game 2.

I question how much Skubal has left in the tank after going 107 pitches against the Guardians in Game 1 last series.  Skubal has not enjoyed facing the Mariners this season, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them for a 5.90 ERA.

I like that the Mariners are going with Luis Castillo in Game 2 tonight.  He has been much better at home than on the road, going 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Castillo is in a real groove to close out the season going 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  He has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five career home starts against Detroit.  Bet the Mariners in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Yankees/Blue Jays FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.17 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.96 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Rookie Trey Yesavage will be making just his 4th career start in this huge spot and I don't trust him to handle it very well, especially up against this potent New York lineup.  His first three starts came against the Rays (twice) and Royals, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a huge step up in class for him today.

The Yankees really have extended Max Fried a lot here down the stretch throwing at least 100 pitches in five of his last six starts.  He's not used to this kind of workload, and I expect him to wear down as the playoffs progress.  Fried does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them since July 1st for a 5.40 ERA.

The OVER is 12-1-1 in the last 14 meetings between the Blue Jays and Yankees in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 14 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks ML -140

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Bucs are 3-1 this season, but these 3-1 starts are not created equal.  The Seahawks have been dominant in their three wins, and they could be 4-0 but lost a coin flip game to the 49ers in Week 1.  The Bucs could easily be 0-4 as their three wins all came on game-winning drives from Baker Mayfield in the final seconds.

While the Seahawks are outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game averaging 27.8 points per game on offense and allowing 16.8 points per game on defense, the Bucs are dead even in scoring margin.  Their three wins came by a combined 6 points, and their lone loss came by 6 points at home to the Eagles last week.

The Seahawks have the rest advantage after beating the Cardinals on the road last Thursday, and they are certainly the much healthier team heading into this one.  And it's the poor health of the Bucs that is is the biggest reason I am fading them this week.

The Bucs will be without six starters this week in WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch, CB Jamel Dean and DE Caljah Kancey.  Baker Mayfield continues to play through injury as his offensive line just can't protect him, and he's taking more hits than ever trying to extend plays with his legs.  The Bucs are also without key depth pieces in WR Jalen McMillan, CB Benjamin Morrison and SS Christian Izien.  They are without five guys in all in the secondary.

The Seahawks are without three starters on defense, but they are fully healthy on offense, and Sam Darnold is proving that his run with the Minnesota Vikings last year was no fluke.  I trust Darnold and this offense to be able to move the ball through the air with ease against this soft Tampa Bay secondary, and for this Seattle defense that has shown it has lots of depth and will make life tough on Mayfield.  

Seattle blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL, consistently getting a pass rush with 4 guys and playing coverage behind it.  Mayfield is better against man-to-man schemes where he can use his legs.  Seattle will have a spy on him running at all times after watching film, and I expect a few interceptions from Mayfield trying to fit balls into tight windows in the zone.  He is due some turnovers as he has the most turnover-worthy plays of any QB in the NFL to this point.

The furthest flight in the NFL is from Tampa Bay to Seattle, and vice versa.  That makes this a tough road trip for the Bucs with the long travel.  Seattle still has one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL, especially when they are good, which is the case this season as they will be going for first place in the NFC West with a win here.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cowboys/Jets OVER 46

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL and the 2nd-best offense in the NFL statistically.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game, 5th in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 404.2 yards per game.

The Jets also have a terrible defense ranking 30th allowing 30.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses should have their way in this one, and this total of 46 is too low for a game involving the Jets and Cowboys.  The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in New York Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Panthers OVER 45

The Dolphins and Panthers are both dead nuts OVER teams with awful defenses and respectable offenses.  This total of 45 has been set too low, especially with the forecast looking perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation in Carolina Sunday.

The Dolphins rank 26th in scoring defense allowing 29.5 points per game, 25th in total defense allowing 378.8 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.6 yards per play.  They remain without CB Storm Duck, and not having him is a big loss going up against one of the best rookie receivers in the NFL in Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan.

Carolina ranks 19th in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points per game, 19th in total defense at 327.5 yards per game and 25th at 5.9 yards per play.  They have even benefited from a fluky shutout win over the Falcons to pad those stats, plus the fact that they have been getting blown out in their other three games so opposing offenses have been very vanilla late in games against them protecting big leads.

This figures to be a competitive back and forth game with neither offense taking their foot off the gas.  Miami is currently a 1-point favorite over Carolina.  Injuries to this Carolina defense are a big reason Miami is favored on the road.  The Panthers will be without DE Tershawn Wharton and NB Chau Smith-Wade, plus LB D.J. Wonnum, DE LaBryan Ray and NT Came Jackson are all questionable.

I know the Dolphins will be without Tyreek Hill, but they just got TE Darren Waller into the lineup for the first time against the Jets last week and he made an immediate impact with two TD receptions from Tua.  Their chemistry will only keep getting better moving forward, and this offense still has plenty of playmakers to help make up for the loss of Hill.  The Dolphins have scored 27, 21 and 27 points in their last three games and should get in that ball park this week.

The Panthers have scored 22 and 30 points in two of their last three games and should be able to get in that ball park in this one as well.  I like the fact that both McMillan and Xavier Legette are healthy, which are Bryce Young's two best weapons.  And this will be the weakest defense that Young has faced yet this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They are 4-0 in one score games.  They beat Dallas by 4 at home, Kansas City by 3 on the road, the Rams by 7 at home only after blowing a FG and returning it for a TD on the final play with a 1-point lead, and beat the banged up Bucs by 6 on the road last week.

The Eagles have the numbers of a team that should be 1-3 and not one that is 4-0.  They average 4.3 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  I realize the tush push hurts the offensive YPP, but this is still a bad offense with little to no passing game averaging 138 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.

The Broncos are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 3-1 or better.  They average 354.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense, and allow 285.3 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game and 0.7 per play.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away AJ Brown.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Eagles after four straight huge games.  They beat their division rival Cowboys in Week 1, had their Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs in Week 2, had their NFC playoffs rematch with the Rams in Week 3, and last week were playing with double-revenge against the Bucs and got their revenge.  They won't be as motivated to beat the Broncos as they were those four teams, and they are 'fat and happy' after this 4-0 start.  The Broncos are motivated to beat the defending champs and it will show on the field.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -130

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 33.2 points per game and 30th in total defense at 406.8 yards per game.  And it's going to be no surprise to see the Houston Texans finally get their offense going this week just like the Chiefs did last week.

The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Marlon Humphrey, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, plus S Kyle Hamilton (groin) and LB Odafe Oweh (eye) are both questionable.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense last week.

The Texans are coming off their best offensive output of the season scoring 26 points on what is a very good Tennessee Titans defense.  They had 353 total yards with a nice mix of run and pass, rushing for 129 yards and throwing for 224.  They found a RB with some explosiveness in Woody Marks, who had 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while also catching 4 balls for 50 yards and a score.  They have one of the deepest WR rooms in the league, and CJ Stroud should keep getting more and more comfortable with these new guys this week.

Now the Ravens are without QB Lamar Jackson who is worth as much to the point spread as any QB in the NFL.  The Ravens are off to a 1-3 start even with a healthy Jackson, and it's because he has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts due to an awful defense.  I like Cooper Rush as a backup, but it's a clear downgrade and the Ravens will be much easier to defend not having to worry about Lamar's dual-threat ability.

The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring defense allowing 12.8 points per game, 6th in total defense allowing 280.5 yards per game and 7th at 4.9 yards per play.  This line has moved a lot, but it hasn't moved enough.  Houston is favored for good reason.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets could easily be 2-2 instead of 0-4.  But that 0-4 record has them undervalued as home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.  The Jets had a chance to win three of the four games they played this season with the exception of their 30-10 loss to the Bills in which they lost QB Justin Fields to a concussion in the 1H and never recovered.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards in their 34-32 loss in Week 1.  The Bucs needed a game-winning FG drive to beat them 29-27 at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB.  Fields returned last week in a 27-21 loss at Miami in which the Jets outgained the Dolphins 404 to 300, or by 104 total yards.  But they were -3 in turnovers and had 13 penalties, yet still had a chance to win late.  These are all errors that are easily correctable, and I expect a much more disciplined effort from the Jets this week as they are highly motivated for that first victory.

The Cowboys are coming off their 'Super Bowl' in a 40-40 tie with the Packers in the Micah Parsons revenge game.  They had to go an extra 10 minutes in OT and could still be feeling the after-affects of that tie.  They are certainly hurting in the injury department coming out of that game, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm fading the Cowboys here.

The Cowboys will be without WR CeeDee Lamb, LT Tyler Guyton, RG Tyler Booker, C Cooper Beebee and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  LG Tyler Smith is questionable, so they will be without at least three starters on the offensive line and two of their biggest playmakers.  They will also be without FS Malik Hooker who landed on IR after leaving that Packers game, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. is questionable.  What a mess.

The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  They legitimately have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Jets have a competent defense allowing 330.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  And Justin Fields is back and healthy and getting more comfortable in this new offense each week.  He and Breece Hall should have a field day on the ground against this Dallas defense.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* Duke/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Duke -2.5

The Duke Blue Devils have played a brutal schedule to this point that has them undervalued.  They have two losses already but have played the 22nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And both losses were misleading especially their loss to Illinois.  They also lost to Tulane on the road.  They outgained by Illinois and Tulane.

The Blue Devils have since bounced back with two impressive ACC wins beating NC State 45-33 as 3-point home favorites and crushing Syracuse 38-3 as 4-point road favorites.  They have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play.

California is overvalued after a 4-1 start against a much softer schedule that ranks as the 62nd-toughest.  The Golden Bears have the numbers of a .500 team averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play.

The four wins have come against Oregon State, Texas Southern, Minnesota and Boston College.  They got to play Minnesota without its best player, Oregon State is still winless on the season, and Boston College also lost to Stanford.

California is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Golden Bears will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after back-to-back road games at San Diego State and at Boston College.  They lost 34-0 at San Diego State, and that loss isn't aging very well.  Then they had to travel clear across the country to Boston College last week, before flying back across the country to return home for this game.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for Duke, which will test its tired legs playing at the 21st-fastest tempo in the country.

Duke has a chance to open 3-0 in ACC play and will be tied for first in the conference with a win Saturday night.  They have a bye on deck next week, so they will be fully focused looking to go into their bye perfect in the conference.  The Blue Devils are the better team and this is a short number for them to be laying Saturday night.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* Tulsa/Memphis ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 56.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22 seconds.  They have a poor defense, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout against an elite Memphis offense that is going to be able to name its number here Saturday.

The Tigers rank 16th in scoring at 39.6 points per game.  They are coming off consecutive shootout wins 32-31 over Arkansas for 63 combined points and 55-26 over FAU for 81 combined points.  FAU also plays at a similarly fast tempo as Tulsa.

Against the two offenses Tulsa faced with pulse, they allowed 42 points and 465 total yards to Navy and 31 points and 438 total yards to Tulane.  Memphis is averaging 247.2 rushing yards per game and 6.0 per carry, and should run wild on a Tulsa defense allowing 179.2 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 60 or more combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain in Memphis tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on Florida State +5

The Miami Hurricanes are overvalued after playing a home-heavy schedule and catching some teams in some bad spots for them.  They caught Notre Dame in the opener with a freshman QB making his first start and escaped with a 27-24 victory.  That win over Notre Dame hasn't aged very well.

After beating Bethune-Cookman but not covering, the Hurricanes caught South Florida off back-to-back upset wins over Boise State and Florida playing a 3rd straight massive game and tired.  They caught Florida off a deflating loss to LSU where they committed five turnovers and gave the game away in a 20-10 loss the previous week.

After playing four straight games at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, now the Hurricanes finally hit the road for the first time in what will be a very hostile atmosphere Saturday night in Tallahassee.  They must take on a focused, pissed off Seminoles team coming off an upset loss at Virginia last Friday night in OT.  They got a tough whistle in that game and lost despite outgaining the Cavaliers and racking up 516 total yards in defeat.

Gus Malzahn has this Florida State offense humming.  The Seminoles rank 1st in the country averaging 600 yards per game, 2nd averaging 8.2 yards per play and 1st scoring 53.0 points per game.  They have the better offense, and I think this Miami offense hasn't been tested by a very good defense yet even though Florida did hold them to 26 points.  

The Seminoles have a solid defense as well ranking 28th allowing 296.0 yards per game and 26th at 4.6 yards per play.  This despite facing two of the best offenses in the country in Alabama and Virginia.  And we saw them shut down Alabama 31-17 at home in their opener, a win that has aged very well as the Crimson Tide have gone on to crush everyone while also upsetting Georgia on the road.  

This will be the best home atmopshere for a FSU game since they went unbeaten in the regular season two years ago and were left out of the playoff.  With no margin for error after the loss to Virginia, we get a fully focused Seminoles team this week.  Plus, Miami is fat and happy coming off a bye week, and they didn't need a bye week because they were rolling.  Some bye weeks are better than others.  Carson Beck had a 3-to-7 TD/INT ratio and his completion percentage dropped by 10% on the road while at Georgia last year.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.9 seconds.  They are scoring 38.6 points per game this season and are coming off a 41-34 (OT) loss to Tennessee last week in a shootout that saw 68 combined points at the end of regulation.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses up to that point, the Bulldogs were finally exposed by Tennessee's high-octane offense last week.  Now they will have to face another elite offense in Texas A&M, which has scored 41 or more points in three of its four games this season including a 41-40 shootout win at Notre Dame.

The Aggies are averaging 35.8 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  QB Marcel Reed is one of the best in the country, and he has elite playmakers surrounding him in WR Mario Craver (24 receptions, 477 yards, 4 TD) and Kevin Conception (20, 340, 3 TD).  

The Aggies will be able to name their number, and I expect the Bulldogs to be able to keep up in a shootout with their hurry-up offense.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings finishing with 58, 61 and 66 combined points in the last three.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Rice OVER 53.5

The FAU Owls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 19.6 seconds.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Memphis, 66 with FIU and 70 with Florida A&M.  The OVER is 9-2 in FAU's last 11 games dating back to last season with 62 or more combined points in all nine overs.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving Florida Atlantic.

This is a poor FAU defense that will give up a big number to Rice.  The Owls are a run-heavy team rushing for 221 yards per game.  They will get what they want on the ground against a FAU defense that is allowing 174.3 rushing yards per game this season.

Rice has faced a terrible schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced anything like the high-octane FAU passing attack they will be up against this weekend.  They have played Louisiana, Houston, Prairie View A&M, Charlotte and Navy.  Most of those teams play slow, and only Navy has a decent offense of the bunch.  None are pass-happy like FAU, which is averaging 325.5 passing yards per game and 52 pass attempts per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Phillies TBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

This total of 7 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy heading into this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep into this game, so that bullpen will be exposed from the jump.

Cristopher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his two starts against the Dodgers this season, which both saw 15 combined runs and sailed over the total.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.93 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Luis Gil is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five road starts this season.  Gil is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Kevin Gausman is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 home starts this season.  Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his last 12 starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan/Buffalo OVER 54

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 25 seconds, which exposes their defense even more.  The Eagles rank 126th allowing 36.6 points per game, 132nd allowing 492.8 yards per game and 134th allowing 7.3 yards per play.

What makes those numbers even worse is the fact that they have played some terrible offenses in their last four games in Long Island, Kentucky, Louisiana and Central Michigan.  Now they have to face a Buffalo offense that also likes to play with pace ranking 47th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  And it's a Buffalo offense that gets back starting QB Ta'Quan Roberson, who means everything to this Buffalo offense as one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.

Buffalo has faced some poor offenses as well in Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, Kent State, Troy and UConn thus far.  I think this Eastern Michigan offense will give them some problems this week and has the ability to keep up in a shootout.  The Eagles are averaging 24.0 points per game, 374 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  QB Noah Kim has been solid, completing 63.4% of his passes for 1,168 yards while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Buffalo and Eastern Michigan with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 54 is too low for a game involving Eastern Michigan, and given the head-to-head history with the high-scoring nature of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Virginia/Louisville OVER 61

Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in four straight games coming in.  Louisville is 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points twice.

Virginia is averaging 45.6 points per game, 543 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris has been awesome, completing 71.6% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 10 TD passes while also rushing for 4 scores on the ground.

Jeff Brohm has this Louisville offense humming again this season.  The Cardinals are scoring 38.3 points per game and averaging 6.1 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses that has included James Madison and Pitt.  USC transfer Miller Moss is completing 65.6% of his passes and averaging 7.9 per attempt.

Virginia is coming off a 46-38 (OT) shootout against Florida State that saw 76 combined points at the end of regulation.  This game feels like a similar shootout is coming.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday in Louisville with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +6.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  That includes their 27-10 win at Wisconsin last time out, which came just before their bye week.  Now they have had two full weeks to prepare for Washington and are sitting on a big effort here to try and remain unbeaten.

This is a terrible spot for Washington.  Two weeks ago they played their biggest rivals in Washington State in the Apple Cup.  Then last week they hosted the No. 1 team in the country in Ohio State.  They came up short in a 24-6 defeat while managing just 234 total yards against the Buckeyes.

I don't think the Huskies will be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Maryland this week.  They don't have much time to recover as they have to travel clear across the country to face the Terrapins.  This is about as long of a trip as you can get for a Big Ten team.  The Huskies have cluster injuries on defense as well that aren't being factored into the line enough.  They are down three starters since the start of the season.

Now the Huskies will have to try and tame 5-star freshman QB Malik Washington.  He has thrown for 1,038 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores.  Many believe he will prove to be one of the best QB's in the country soon, and he could get a bag anywhere he wanted to go after this season because of his talents.  The Terrapins are loaded with receiver talent as a trio of seniors in Farooq, Smith Jr. and Knotts all have between 14 and 17 receptions this season as Washington has spread the ball around nicely.

While Washington and the offense get the hype, it's the defense that has been most impressive.  The Terrapins are only allowing 10.8 points per game and 4.1 yards per play, ranking 7th and 11th in the country, respectively.  I'll gladly take the points on the Terrapins in this very favorable spot off a bye against this tired Huskies team that won't be as motivated to win this game as they were to beat Washington State and Ohio State the last two weeks.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +8

The UConn Huskies are a tired team and ripe for the picking this week.  The Huskies will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after four straight one-score games against Syracuse, Delaware, Ball State and Buffalo.  They are running on fumes now, and they should not be favored by more than a TD against the Florida International Panthers this week.

That's especially the case when you consider FIU is coming off a bye week and has had two full weeks to prepare for UConn.  The Panthers have a first-year head coach in Willie Simmons, and first-year head coaches benefit more from bye weeks than the rest of the coaches.  Look for the Panthers to have his systems down now and to be as sharp as they've been all season this week.

FIU is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After opening with a 42-9 win over Bethune-Cookman as 26.5-point favorites, the Panthers were game in a 34-0 loss at Penn State as 42-point dogs as the cover was never in question.  Then they beat rival Florida Atlantic 38-28 at home as 1.5-point favorites, before a misleading 38-16 loss to Delaware as 4.5-point favorites.  The Panthers actually outgained the Blue Hens in that loss.  Keep in mind Delaware also upset UConn on the road earlier this season.

It's a bad look for UConn being in one-score games with both Ball State and Buffalo since that loss to Delaware.  The Huskies were 21-point favorites against Ball State and only won by 6 and were actually outgained by the Cardinals.  They were also outgained by Buffalo in a 3-point win, and that's a Buffalo team that was playing with a backup QB.  I'm not even sure UConn is a better team than FIU at this point.  Given the horrific spot for the Huskies and the great one for the Panthers, this number is a few notches too high at minimum.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Temple OVER 56.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  You could tell that was going to be the case coming into the season with 9 starters back on offense but only 2 starters back on defense.  That has played out thus far.

UTSA boasts an offense that is putting up 31.3 points per game, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.3 points per game, 408 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The OVER 3-1 in all UTSA games this season combining for 66 points with Texas A&M, 79 with Texas State and 68 with Incarnate Word.

Temple is 3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Owls combined for 52 points with UMass, 62 with Howard and 69 with Georgia Tech in their three games that went over the total.  I like QB Evan Simon, who has a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio despite playing Oklahoma and Georgia Tech already and a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  The Owls have a lot more talent on offense than they do on defense, as evidenced by giving up 42 to Oklahoma and 45 to Georgia Tech.

Both meetings between Temple and UTSA over the last two seasons sailed over the total with a 51-27 win by UTSA in 2024 and 78 combined points with a 55.5-point total, and a 49-34 win by the Roadrunners in 2023 and 83 combined points with a 56-point total.  The books have made the mistake of setting this total too low once again in 2025.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.