15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +25

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall and I would argue they are the most overrated team in the country.  They are elite on offense but this is the worst defensive team of the Mark Few era.

That was on display in their last two games allowing 58.5% shooting to Oregon State in a 97-89 (OT) loss and allowing 53.7% shooting to Santa Clara in a 103-99 home loss in regulation.

Portland shot 33.3% in its 81-50 road loss to Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  I have to think the Pilots are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and thus should be able to stay within this 25-point spread.  Bet Portland Saturday.

20* UConn/Xavier FOX No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their las four games overall including an upset road win at Marquette.

Xavier is pissed off after blowing a 16-point 2H lead to lose 79-71 (OT) at St. John's last time out.  That was a brutal beat as I had Xavier +8 in that game and the line closed +7 so most lost.  It was also a misleading final, and taking St. John's to OT on the road is impressive either way.

Now the Musketeers have their sights set on revenge from a 94-89 (OT) road loss at UConn on December 18th.  Freemantle didn't even play in that game and they took the Huskies to OT on the road.  UConn had Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) healthy for that game and he scored 14 points.  McNeeley has missed their last five games and likely will miss this one as well.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Knicks OVER 232.5

The Sacramento Kings are getting back to their roots under interim head coach Doug Christie.  They are playing faster and their offense has thrived since upping the tempo.  The OVER is 8-2 in Kings last 10 games overall with 240 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They have scored at least 123 points in eight of those 10 games.

The New York Knicks profile as an OVER team this season thanks to ranking 2nd in offensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now with Josh Hart questionable the only concern.  But as long as Towns is healthy and on the court, the Knicks are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.

The Knicks will be looking to run more with the last three days off, so they are fresh and ready to go.  The Kings are always looking to run ranking 1st in pace in their last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -2.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  And last time out they covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they have had the last week off and get another reprieve here with a very winnable game against one of the worst teams in the Mountain West in Wyoming.  The Cowboys are in a letdown spot off an upset loss at UNLV which put to end a three-game losing streak by 8 at home to New Mexico, by 41 at Boise State and by 16 at home to Colorado State.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Dakota/South Dakota State OVER 169

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 16-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 2nd in adjusted tempo, 98th in adjusted offense and 357th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.  The Coyotes and their opponents have combined for at least 174 points in 10 of their last 13 games.

South Dakota State also likes to play fast ranking 80th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits do so efficiently ranking 122nd in adjusted offense and 57th in effective FG percentage.  They combined for 182 points with North Dakota, a team that profiles similar to South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach/Cal Poly OVER 154

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 3rd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession at 14.2 seconds.  They are also a terrible defensive team ranking 298th in adjusted defense.

Cal Poly is 13-6 OVER in all games this season.  They take on a Long Beach State team that has really been trending over of late.  The Beach have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They rank 336th in adjusted defense, so these are two of the worst defensive teams in the country.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/North Dakota State OVER 160.5

North Dakota is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 180 or more combined points five times.  The Fighting Hawks rank 97th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 352nd in adjusted defense.  They play fast and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

North Dakota State has huge splits on offense and defense.  The Bison are 33rd in adjusted offense, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage connecting on 41.3%.  But they are just 267th in adjusted defense, so despite playing slower they really profile as an OVER team.

North Dakota State is 13-5 OVER in all games this season while North Dakota is 15-4 OVER in all games.  The Bison are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games with 160 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  North Dakota and its opponents have combined for at least 162 points in eight of its last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/Wake Forest ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule to open ACC play and I think they finally get a run for their money today.

Wake Forest is 15-4 this season including a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they upset North Carolina last time out.  They also crushed Stanford by 13, NC State by 18 and James Madison by 17 in their previous three home games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Duke winning both home meetings outright during this stretch.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU/UFC OVER 148.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, 53rd in adjusted offense and 99th in adjusted defense.  They are 12-4 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 149 or more combined points in 12 of those 16 games.  This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving UCF.

TCU profiles as an under team, but UCF will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Horned Frogs will relish this big step down in defensive class after facing a gauntlet of great Big 12 defensive teams.  They have faced Kansas, Baylor, Utah, BYU, Houston and K-State in their last six games.  In their last game against a team that profiles similar to UCF, they lost 90-81 at Arizona for 171 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 150

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 63rd in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 3-1 in Arizona's last four games overall combining for 168 points with UCF, 151 with Baylor and 170 with Oklahoma State.  This total of 150 is very low for a game involving Arizona right now.

The Wildcats will control the tempo tonight playing at home.  But Colorado is playing faster this season at 155th in adjusted tempo.  The Buffaloes have sneakily gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 148 or more combined points in four of their last five games despite facing a plethora of Big 12 teams that profile as under teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Bradley OVER 139.5

Bradley is playing faster this season and the Braves are one of the best shooting teams in the country.  They are scoring 81.2 points per game on 49% shooting while ranking 7th in effective FG percentage and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 41.2% as a team.

Bradley put up 89 points on Belmont and 118 on Indiana State in two of its last three games.  I expect the Braves to hang a big number on Illinois State, which ranks 263rd in adjusted defense.  But the Redbirds have been sneaky good on the other end ranking 79th in adjusted offense, 11th in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage at 39.1%.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Arizona State +10

The Iowa State Cyclones have struggled on the road in Big 12 play.  They scored at the buzzer to force OT at Texas Tech in a 85-84 win.  They lost outright as 6.5-point favorites at West Virginia.  And they only beat Colorado by 10, which is a Colorado team that is currently on a 7-game losing streak starting with that defeat.

West Virginia is a recent common opponent of Arizona State.  The Sun Devils went on the road and upset West Virginia outright as 9-point road dogs.  They don't get blown out at home as their largest home loss came by 6 points.  Each of their last four Big 12 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.

Arizona State is fully healthy with G Jason Sanon (12.8 PPG) upgraded to probable today.  Iowa State just lost its best shooter in Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) and will be without him until nearly tournament time.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa/Indiana State OVER 155

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games overall.  The Sycamores rank 5th in adjusted tempo and 283rd in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 157 combined points with their opponents in 14 of their last 16 lined games, so this total of 155 is pretty short for a game involving the Sycamores.

Northern Iowa has always been known for defense and slow tempo.  But that's not the case anymore this season.  The Panthers are actually great on offense ranking 83rd in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 202nd in adjusted defense.

Northern Iowa combined for 169 points with Illinois State and 153 with Valpo in two of its last three road games during a stretch where the OVER is 4-2 in their last six.  Indiana State will control the tempo at home and make Northern Iowa try and keep up with them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Pitt/Syracuse OVER 150

Pittsburgh is a dead nuts OVER team here of late.  The Panthers are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 151 or more combined points in all eight games.  This is the rare year where they are better on offense than defense, ranking 21st in adjusted offense but just 63rd in adjusted defense.

The Syracuse Orange rank 65th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Orange profile as an OVER team ranking 126th in adjusted offense and only 147th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 146 combined points in six of their last seven games overall.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 154, 181 and 166 combined points in the three games that went over the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Grizzlies OVER 240.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games overall with 234 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in five of their last six coming in.

The Pelicans are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 232 or more combined points in all six games.  They have scored at least 119 points in all six games as well as CJ McCollum is playing the best basketball of his career to lead the way.

The Grizzlies and Pelicans combined for 256 points in their last meeting in a 132-124 win by Memphis on December 27th earlier this season.  It should be more of the same tonight with the way these teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Grizzlies NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +12

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming 120-119 at Boston as 14.5-point underdogs.  They have upset road wins over Philadelphia and Chicago as well during this stretch.

CJ McCollum is playing the best basketball of his career to lead the way.  The Pelicans have scored at least 119 points in each of their last six games.  McCollum has scored 50, 45 and 38 points here recently.

This feels like a letdown spot for the Grizzlies.  They are getting a lot of respect after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They haven't beaten the Pelicans by more than 11 points in any of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing New Orleans pertaining to this 12-point spread.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

The Villanova Wildcats remain a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank 349th in adjusted tempo and 333rd in average length of offensive possession.  Few teams play slower than they do.

The Marquette Golden Eagles are an elite defensive team this season.  They rank 13th in adjusted defense.  They make opponents work for everything they get as they are 352nd in average length of possession defensively.  Opponents take 18.7 seconds per possession to get a shot up or turn it over.

The UNDER is 5-2 in Marquette's last seven games overall with 142 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of those seven games.  Villanova and its opponents have combined for 127, 132 and 134 points in three of its last five games.

These teams squared off three times last season including in the Big East Tournament, so they are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Villanova and Marquette have combined for 137 or fewer points in four of their last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls +1.5

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-117 loss in Sacramento last night.  They couldn't have shot it any better hitting 22-of-48 (46%) from 3-point range and still lost.

The Warriors are a tired, banged up, struggling team right now.  They are without Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga, and the loss of Kuminga has coincided with their recent struggles.  Podziemski, Anderson and Looney are all questionable. 

The Warriors are 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with their two of their three wins coming by a combined 4 points, and the other being an 8-point home win over the lowly Wizards as 14-point favorites.  They have a 40-point home loss to Boston, an upset road loss at Toronto, a 12-point road loss at Indiana, a 16-point home loss to Miami and a 30-point home loss to Sacramento during this stretch.

Te Bulls are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off.  There's a chance they get back to full strength tonight with both White and Dosunmu questionable.  They won 112-99 as 6.5-point road dogs to the Clippers last time out and get to stay out West for this one.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bulls won outright as 8.5-point dogs and outright as 4.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Golden State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Celtics/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics.  They needed OT to beat a short-handed Clippers team last night that was without Kawhi, Harden and Powell.  They managed to win 117-113 as 12.5-point favorites.

But now they are on tired legs after Tatum played over 42 minutes, White over 42 and Brown over 38 last night.  They were without Porzingis, Horford and Holiday and there's a chance they return tonight listed as questionable.  But either way, those three are tired, and the team as a whole is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.

The Lakers have won three of their last four and are coming off a 23-point rout of the Wizards at home.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 6th game in 16 days.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and ready to take their swing at the defending champs tonight.

The Lakers are 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings with two of the losses coing in OT.  The Celtics rarely get margin on them as two of the three losses came by 4 points or less.  Their two wins came by 9 at Boston and by 15 at home.  The spot really favors the Lakers tonight.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on St. Mary's.  The Gaels are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, but they couldn't have possibly played an easier schedule getting to face Pepperdine (twice), San Diego, Loyola-Marymount, Portland and Pacific.

The last time they had to face a real opponent they lost outright to Utah State as 5.5-point home favorites.  That was the end of a stretch that saw them go 1-6 ATS in their previous season games.  They only beat UTSA by 8 at home, Merrimack by 5 at home, and lost outright to ASU, Boise State and Utah State.

San Francisco is 16-5 this season with wins over Boise State, Saint Louis, Santa Clara and Oregon State.  Three of their five losses came by single-digits.  The Dons have a knack for playing the Gaels tough, especially on the road.

Indeed, the Dons haven't lost any of their last five trips to St. Mary's by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the Dons pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  They have lost 10 straight in the series and desperately want to end this streak tonight.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Utah +11.5

Grand Canyon is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Antelopes are just 5-12 ATS in all games this season.  That's even after consecutive blowout wins and covers at home against Tarleton State and Abilene Christian.

I think those two blowout wins have the Antelopes overvalued again tonight as 11.5-point road favorites over Southern Utah.  They only beat Southern Utah 82-71 as 16-point home favorites in their first meeting this season on January 4th three weeks ago.

Now the Thunderbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch, and they are catching 11.5 points at home to boot.  They will be happy to be at home after having to play five of their last eight games on the road and all against quality teams.  The Thunderbirds are 7-2 SU at home this season with both losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Southern Utah Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on South Dakota/North Dakota OVER 176

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 15-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 3rd in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and 358th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.

Now they match up with a North Dakota team that plays a similar style.  The Fighting Hawks rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 156th in adjusted offense and 351st in adjusted defense.  So these are two of the 15 worst defensive teams in the entire country and both like to play fast.

North Dakota is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 180 or more combined points four times.  South Dakota and its opponents have combined for at least 174 points in nine of its last 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/Nebraska-Omaha OVER 153.5

The Summit League is loaded with offense and St. Thomas is the class of it.  The Tommies are scoring 85.9 points per game and shooting 49.9% as a team. The Tommies rank 56th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage and 6th in 3-point percentage.

Omaha has been no slouch on offense ranking 183rd in adjusted offense, 165th in effective FG percentage and 76th in 3-point percentage.  But both teams have been poor on defense.  Omaha ranks 272nd in adjusted defense while St. Thomas ranks 244th.

The OVER is 12-3 in St. Thomas' last 15 games overall.  The Tommies and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in nine of their last 12 games.  The OVER is 4-2 in Omaha's last six games overall.  They have gone for 167 or more combined points in four of those six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 114-104 loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Trae Young played 40 minutes, Jalen Johnson over 37, Dyson Daniels 33 and De'Andre Hunter 30.  Those four will all be on tired legs if they play again tonight.

Clint Capela, who had 16 points and 10 rebounds against the Pistons last night, has already been ruled out.  They are also without Risacher and Nance Jr.  This is a Hawks team that just have a knack for playing to the level of its competition.  That outright loss to the Pistons last night was normal, and it wouldn't surprise me if they lose outright again tonight.

The spot really favors the Toronto Raptors.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days so they couldn't be more fresh.  They are coming off a 109-93 home win over the Magic, and they beat the Celtics outright as 14-point dogs and the Warriors outright as 5-point dogs in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are pretty much as healthy as they have been all season only missing Immanuel Quickley right now.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series as the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  I fully expect the Raptors to win this game outright tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Miami/Stanford ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -10

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next six games without him to fall to 4-14 SU & 3-15 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-14 SU in its last 15 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last four losses have come by double-digits, including a 117-74 home loss to SMU last time out and a 89-54 loss at Duke the game prior.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

The Stanford Cardinal are playing well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an upset road win at North Carolina as 11.5-point dogs last time out.  They won their only two ACC home games by double-digits over Virginia by 23 and VA Tech by 11, and I fully expect them to beat the Hurricanes by double-digits tonight.  Bet Stanford Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Georgia/Arkansas UNDER 142

The Arkansas Razorbacks have opened 0-5 in SEC play and are coming off a 83-65 road loss at Missouri.  Making matters worse, they lost G Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) to a season-ending injury in the defeat.  So now they have to try and adjust without their PG and second-leading scorer moving forward.

The Razorbacks are going to have to rely on defense even more now because they are going to be even more lost offensively without Fland.  Arkansas ranks 36th in adjusted defense and 86th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Razorbacks last five games overall with 139 or fewer combined points in three of those.

The Georgia Bulldogs are 14-4 this season.  The biggest reason for their improvement is defense as they rank 14th in the country in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Georgia's last 15 games overall.  Four of their last five games have seen 138 or fewer combined points with the lone exception being against Kentucky, which profiles as an over team.  Both of these teams profile as under teams and points will be hard to come by tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas A&M/Ole Miss UNDER 141.5

Both Texas A&M and Ole Miss profile as UNDER teams.  Texas A&M ranks 11th in adjusted defense and 223rd in adjusted tempo.  Ole Miss ranks 12th in adjusted defense and 203rd in adjusted tempo.  So these are two elite defensive teams that prefer to play slow.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Texas A&M's last 10 games overall with 140 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Ole Miss' last 11 games overall with 142 or fewer combined points eight of their last 10 games.  

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  These teams have combined for 142 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Grizzlies OVER 238

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and the key to their offense in JA Morant is back and healthy.

The OVER is 6-2-1 in Grizzlies last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in four of their last five coming in.

The Charlotte Hornets profile as an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.3 PPG, 7.6 APG) is healthy and running the show.  They play a lot faster with him at the point and they are much more efficient offensively.  They remain a poor defensive team.

The OVER is 3-1 in Hornets last four games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Charlotte and Memphis.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Thunder OVER 221.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder profile as an OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating.  They have gone for at least 220 combined points with their opponents in six of their last seven games overall.  They have had to go more small ball now without their two big men in Holmgren and Harteinstein.

The Utah Jazz profile as an OVER team as well ranking 13th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall with 223 or more combined points in all four games, and 220 or more in five consecutive games coming in.  They have upgraded Makkanen and Collins to questionable today so there's a decent chance they return.

The Jazz and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +12

The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall with three SU losses during this stretch coming by 4 at Detroit, by 10 at Cleveland and by 7 at Phoenix.  They upset Dallas at home, upset Chicago on the road and upset Phoenix at home.

The key to the Hornets playing their best basketball of the season right now is having La'Melo Ball (29.3 PPG, 7.6 APG) healthy and running the show.  C Mark Williams (14.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG) is one of the more underrated players in the league and is getting to showcase his talents now.  Miles Bridges (18.6 PPG) is also playing well, and Nick Smith Jr. is getting more playing time and showcasing his talents with Brandon Miller out.

This looks like a letdown spot for Memphis.  They had a huge comeback win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on MLK Day with a 108-106 victory.  That was their first home game back from a four-game road trip.  I don't think they'll be fully motivated against the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets have won each of their last two meetings with the Grizzlies 115-106 at home and 110-98 on the road.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points, making for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 12-point spread.  They haven't lost any of their last 17 games by more than 14 points, so they have a long history of being competitive.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Xavier +8

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, including an upset road win over Marquette last time out.

While that win over Marquette could set most teams up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case for the Musketeers tonight.  They want revenge from a 82-72 home loss to St. John's on January 7th just two weeks ago.  They shot just 37% from the field and 22% from 3-point range in that loss and are due some positive regression in the rematch.

This feels like a letdown spot for St. John's if anything.  The Red Storm are riding high on a five-game winning streak and won't be that motivated to beat Xavier for a second time this season.  The Musketeers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +13.5

The Washington Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been pretty competitive.  In their one non-cover, the Wizards shot 32-of-89 (36%) from the field and 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range in their 123-100 loss at Sacramento.  I expect some positive shooting regression from them tonight.

Now they're up against a Lakers team that is overvalued and ranks just 24th in defensive rating this season.  The Lakers have just one win by more than 13 points in their last 22 games, making for a 21-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.

The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Lakers not once losing by more than 13 points.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Lakers OVER 228.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City, 236 with Golden State and 223 with Sacramento.

The Wizards shot 32-of-89 (36%) from the field and 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range in that 123-100 loss at Sacramento.  I expect some positive shooting regression from them tonight which will be the key to us cashing this OVER 228.5 ticket.

The Lakers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and should hang a big number on the Wizards.  That's especially the case after playing some very good defensive teams here recently in the Clippers, Heat and Spurs.  But the Lakers rank 24th in defensive rating so the Wizards should hang a big number as well.

The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings with 231 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF +16.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are overvalued right now since beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They went on the road and were upset by West Virginia last time out, and now I believe they are laying too many points at home tonight to UCF.  The Cyclones just lost Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG) to a hand injury prior to the Kansas game and his loss will be felt.

UCF (12-5) is one of the more underrated teams in the Big 12.  They have upset wins over Texas A&M at home and Texas Tech on the road this season.  They only lost to Houston by 1 as 13-point home dogs last time out, they upset Arizona State on the road the game prior, and they only lost by 8 at Arizona the game before that.

The Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and will hang within this inflated number tonight.  Bet UCF Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State/Purdue UNDER 141.5

Purdue ranks 290th in adjusted tempo and 302nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Boilermakers are 22nd in adjusted defense.  Purdue and its opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 123 with Oregon and 127 with Washington in their last two games coming in.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have two recent games that went to OT that are pushing this total up higher than it should be.  The Buckeyes and their opponents have combined for 144 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games coming in.

Ohio State and Purdue have combined for 142 or fewer points in three of their last four meetings and 146 or fewer in all four.  They have combined for 146 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Belmont OVER 153.5

Two of the better offensive teams in the country square off tonight when Belmont hosts Bradley.  The Bruins will control the tempo playing at home.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession, and they will be pushing the tempo.

The Bruins rank 81st in adjusted offense and 243rd in adjusted defense, so they really profile as an OVER team.  They are scoring 81.4 points per game this season while ranking 38th in effective FG percentage and 45th in 3-point percentage.  The OVER is 12-5 in Bruins last 17 games overall.

Bradley ranks 82nd in adjusted offense, 7th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage.  The Braves are scoring 80.4 points per game this season.  These teams met last season with Bradley winning 95-72 at home for 167 combined points.  It will be another shootout in their first meeting of 2025.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +13.5

Connecticut is overvalued after winning back-to-back national championships.  They don't have as much talent as they did the two previous seasons, and injuries are really starting to catch up to them as well.

The Huskies are 5-2 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 13 points.  Once the schedule has gotten tougher and they have gotten into conference play, they haven't been able to get margin on teams.  Second-leading scorer Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is out with an ankle injury, and leading scorer Alex Karaban (15.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Butler Bulldogs.  They put an end to their 9-game losing streak with a 82-77 home win over Seton Hall last time out.  They have been extremely competitive in recent losses as seven of their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer.

That includes their 78-74 home loss to UConn as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st.  The Bulldogs have already proven they can play with the Huskies, and now they will be out for revenge on the road in the rematch.  They have five days off in between games to get ready for this one while the Huskies have only had two days off in between games.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +4

The Duquesne Dukes are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven lined games with six outright upsets as underdogs.  

They beat UC-Irvine by 16 as 7-point home dogs, beat Rhode Island by 12 as 1.5-point home dogs, beat Saint Joe's by 4 as 2.5-point home dogs, beat St. Bonaventure by 18 as 2-point home dogs and won at George Washington by 8 as 4-point road dogs.

The Dayton Flyers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Flyers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with two wins by a combined 3 points at home against UNLV and Loyola-Chicago as double-digit favorites in both.  

They have three outright upset losses during this stretch to George Washington by 20 as 9-point road favorites, to UMass by 4 as 10.5-point road favorites and to George Mason by 8 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -11

I'm willing to lay the big number with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight for several reasons.  For starters, the Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and are playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a single point 120-119 as 14.5-point underdogs at Boston.  They upset the Bulls and 76ers on the road, and covered at home against Dallas and Utah.

The Jazz are a mess right now.  They are 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their only victory coming at home by a single point over the hapless Brooklyn Nets 112-111.  Injuries and tanking are the biggest problem for the Jazz right now.

The Jazz are without four of their top five scorers in Makkanen (20.1 PPG), Sexton (18.3 PPG), Collins (17.9 PPG and Clarkson (16.0 PPG).  Sexton is only sitting out because is is almost 100% going to get traded before the deadline.

Sexton had 24 points in their 136-123 loss at New Orleans in their last game on January 17th.  So they won't have his production tonight, and the Pelicans actually are shorter favorites in the rematch after being 12-point favorites in that game.  There's value here on New Orleans even as a double-digit favorite.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* Ohio State/Notre Dame CFP Championship No-Brainer on Ohio State -9

Note: If you receive this play before NFL Wild Card weekend, I also recommend teasers with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with the Bills -2.5 or better and the Rams +8.5 or better.  You may need to do a 7-point teaser.  Ohio State/Eagles ML parlay is also a good way to play it.

If you receive this play after NFL Wild Card Weekend, a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with Chiefs -2.5 or better is another great way to play it.

If you're buying this play after the Divisional Round, then a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better pair with Bills +7.5 or better against the Chiefs is another good way to play it.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon in the quarterfinals as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Against a very strong Texas defense, the Buckeyes had to work a little harder in their 28-14 win.  They only managed 370 total yards but held Texas to only a pair of scores.  Texas has one of the best defensive lines in the country, something they won't have to worry about against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is very small along the front four and will have to bring extra guys up in the box to try and stop the run.  The Fighting Irish lost DL Rylie Mills (37 tackles, 7.5 sacks) in the playoffs and he is out for the season.  LT Boubacar Traore (3 sacks) has been out since October.  DL's Onye and Botelho are also out hurting their depth along the D-Line.  CB Benjamin Morrison has been out since Week 7.

The Fighting Irish also have significant injuries along their offensive line.  They have been without starting C Ashton Craig since September 14th.  They just lost freshman LT Anthonie Knapp in their win over Penn State last week.  G Rocco Spindler will be available to play after leaving the Penn State game with an ankle injury. WR Beaux Collins (37 receptions, 458 yards, 3 TD) is questionable after playing just seven snaps against Penn State before leaving with a calf injury.

Ohio State is the better, much healthier team in this one.  The Buckeyes have by far the better offense and it's not even close.  But they also have the better defense.  The Buckeyes rank 1st in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 251.1 yards per game and 1st at 4.1 yards per play.

Notre Dame is handicapped on offense.  The Fighting Irish rely heavily on running the football to move the ball and score points because Riley Leonard just isn't a very good passer.  Well, running lanes will be non-existent against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes rank 5th in the country allowing 89.9 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.7 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will be the difference in this game because Leonard isn't going to beat them with his arm.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

15* Suns/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix +8

The Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming by 5 at Atlanta.  The Suns made a trade for Nick Richards and he had 21 points and 11 rebounds in his Phoenix debut last time out in a 125-121 road win at Detroit.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have actually lost two of their last four and are kind of hitting a wall after a blistering start tot he season.  They lost by 15 as 9-point home favorites to Indiana and by 20 at Oklahoma City.

A big reason for their struggles was losing C Evan Mobley (18.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 42.1% 3-pointers) in that loss to OKC.  Mobley is one of the most improved players in the NBA, especially with his ability to now step out and hit 3-pointers.  The Cavaliers miss him a lot with what he can do on both ends considering he's already one of the top defenders in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and the key to their offense in JA Morant has been upgraded to probable.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 234 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  That includes their 127-125 road win at Minnesota on January 11th for 252 combined points.

It's not like the Grizzlies shot the lights out in that game either as they shot just 44% as a team on a whopping 108 attempts from the field.  Neither team shot better than 40% from 3-point range either, so it should be another shootout in the rematch that sails OVER this 233.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Rockets OVER 222

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 228 or more combined points in all seven games, including 234 or more in six of them.  They are playing with a lot more tempo of late and it is paying off as the Rockets have scored at least 119 points in each of their last seven games.

The Detroit Pistons are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall including 237 combined points with Toronto, 243 with New York and 246 with Phoenix.  They scored at least 121 points in three of their last four.  This total of 222 is way too short given the way these two teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Kings OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City and 236 with Golden State.

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team since switching to Doug Christie at head coach.  They are getting back to pace and space.  The OVER is 6-1 in Kings last seven games overall with 241 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They just combined for 259 with Houston, 245 with Milwaukee and 243 with Chicago in their last three games coming in.

The Wizards and Kings have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Denver Nuggets -7

The Denver Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more.  That includes a 133-113 win at Miami last time out.  A return to health is a big reason for their resurgence as Murray, Jokic and Gordon are all healthy right now.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are going through their worst stretch of the season due to all their injuries.  The Magic are just 6-11 SU in their last 17 games and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.  They were absolutely blown out in their last two games losing by 29 at Milwaukee and by 27 at Boston.

The Magic did get Paulo Banchero back from injury recently but he's not 100% yet and is on a minutes restriction.  He cannot make up for the losses of Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Jalen Suggs (16.4 PPG), Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG) and Goga Bitadze (9.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG).  The Magic are just so short-handed right now, and they stand no chance of being competitive against Denver today.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -7.5

The Green Bay Phoenix are a dumpster fire.  They are 2-17 SU & 6-12 ATS this season.  Head coach Doug Gottlieb is in over his head, especially since he is without his best player in Anthony Roy (25.7 PPG) due to injury after suspending him earlier this season.

The Phoenix have zero home-court advantage as fans are already tired of this team.  They even lost to DII Michigan Tech at home a few weeks ago.  In fact, 16 of their 17 losses this season have come by at least 6 points, and 15 of the losses have come by 9 points or more.  So they have rarely even been competitive.

Youngstown State went on a 9-1 SU run in a 10-game stretch with the lone loss coming on the road to IPFW before losing to Cleveland State and home and Milwaukee on the road in their last two games coming in.  That assures the Penguins will not have a letdown today as they'll be motivated to bounce back from those two consecutive losses.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Santa Clara +15.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.

Gonzaga is coming off a 97-89 (OT) road loss at Oregon State as 9-point favorites on Thursday.  The Bulldogs will be on tired legs after having just one day to recover in between games.

I love the spot for Santa Clara.  After winning three straight games including impressive wins over Oregon State and San Francisco by 23, they were in a sandwich spot.  They lost outright at Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites on Thursday.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against Gonzaga.

In nine road/neutral games, the Broncos have just one loss by more than 7 points.  They beat Saint Louis, TCU and Bradley on neutrals, pulled the upset of McNeese State and only lost by 3 at San Francisco.  They will hang within the number today.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Commanders/Lions OVER 55

These are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses in the league.  The books haven't set this total high enough even though it's the highest total of the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.2 PPG), 2nd in total offense (409.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  The only important player on offense they are missing heading into the playoffs is RG Kevin Zeitler, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and plenty of depth.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts down the stretch going 4-1 OVER in their final five games.  They accomplished it in Week 14 with a 34-31 win over Green Bay, but they couldn't in Week 15 with a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

In Week 16, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

In Week 17, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Week 18 resulted in a fluky 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings just couldn't punch it in in the red zone or they easily could have made that a game.  Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career consistently overthrowing receivers.  He also missed some wide open receivers.  Darnold had an equally terrible games against the Rams as he just couldn't handle the pressure of these must-win games.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.

There's not a lot to like about this Washington defense, either.  The Commanders rank 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game and 18th at 5.7 yards per play.  They allow 4.7 yards per carry on the ground which ranks 28th.  They play the 6th-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.  The last team the Lions faced that played this much man covers was the Jaguars, who they hung 52 points on in Week 11.

Detroit and Washington are both aggressive on 4th downs and both have been wildly successful this season.  So these teams won't be settling for FG's they will be going for touchdowns.  The aggression will lead to more points offensively, but also possibly create some short fields for their opponents if they fail as well.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games and they will get to at least 31 in this one.  I don't think it's much to ask the Commanders to get 24-plus, and I'm expecting more out of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Commanders/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Washington +10

The Washington Commanders are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games overall.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, including road losses to the Eagles by 8 and the Ravens by 7, and I would argue both the Ravens and Eagles are better than the Lions.  This makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commanders pertaining to this 10-point spread.

The reason I say the Ravens and Eagles are better is because they actually play defense.  The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Commanders are never going to be out of this game because of that fact.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play this season.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.  Washington remains underrated as double-digit underdogs this week.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +7.5

The books and the betting public continue to underestimate the New Mexico State Aggies.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Texas.

The 89-83 win at New Mexico as 20-point underdogs prior to the Texas loss should have let everyone know this team is legit.  The Aggies have reeled off seven consecutive victories since that Texas loss with four of them coming by 28 points or more.  That includes a 30-point win over LA Tech as 2-point dogs and a 28-point win at UTEP as 7-point dogs.

Speaking of LA Tech and UTEP, Liberty is coming off consecutive losses to both of them to give these teams two common opponents.  The Flames lost at LA Tech as 1-point favorites and at home to UTEP as 2-point favorites.  They should not be laying 7.5 points to a Aggies team that will likely win this game outright today.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/Indiana State OVER 142.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall. In those 14 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 13 of them.  

That makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 142.5-point total.  So this total of 142.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 5th in adjusted tempo and 304th in adjusted defense.

While Drake likes to play much slower, Indiana State will control the tempo playing at home.  The Sycamores gave up 118 points to Bradley in regulation in their last game, and Drake is in line for its best offensive output of the season today to carry the way in us cashing this OVER 142.5 ticket.  

Drake and Indiana State have combined for 164, 142 and 165 points in their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State +13.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico last time out.  That was the Lobos' only loss in their last eight games against a very tough schedule.

While San Jose State is grossly underrated, Nevada is grossly overrated.  The Wolf Pack have gone 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming at Fresno in OT as 12.5-point favorites and against Air Force by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by both Colorado State and Utah State at home, and Wyoming on the road.  They have no business being 13.5-point favorites here.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 160

South Dakota State likes to play fast ranking 79th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of their last six games.  They are coming off a 109-73 home win over North Dakota for 182 combined points.

Oral Roberts also likes to play fast and plays zero defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 120th in adjusted tempo and 360th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 5-0 in Golden Eagles' last five games overall with 160 or more combined points in four of those five games, and 157 in the other.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +7

The Iowa State Cyclones are in the ultimate letdown spot.  After escaping with a 85-84 (OT) road win at Texas Tech, the Cyclones came back home and took down their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks 74-57 on Wednesday.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia today, and I expect them to come out flat.

The Mountaineers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  First-year head coach Darian DeVries parlayed his success at Drake into the job in Morgantown.  And he is already winning getting the Mountaineers to 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS this season.

That includes 8-1 SU at home where the Mountaineers have beaten Oklahoma State by 19 and Georgetown by 13.  They have also gone on the road and beaten Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral, as well as Kansas and Colorado outright in true road games as underdogs.  This team is much better than they get credit for.  

The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones as they clearly have their number.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings as Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Texans/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -7.5

Note: I strongly recommend a 6-point teaser on the Chiefs -1.5/Ohio State -2 at the current lines as of Tuesday, January 14th.  Just make sure to get them both down to -2.5 or better. I also don't mind teasing the Chiefs -2.5 or better with the Eagles down to PK for smaller, or the Bills up to +7.5 or better for even smaller.

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played meaningful football in 24 days by the time this game kicks off Saturday.  They needed the rest to get healthy after a grueling season that saw them go 15-1 in games started and finished by Patrick Mahomes.  You can toss out their Week 18 loss to the Broncos with all backups.

The Chiefs showed some life on offense down the stretch once they got healthy.  This version of the Chiefs offense that is entering the playoffs is much more potent than the one we saw all regular season.  Kansas City now has DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together for the first time all season.

The Chiefs put up 27 points, 375 total yards and 25 first downs in a 27-19 win over the Texans at home in Week 16.  They followed it up with 29 points and 389 total yards against the Steelers in Week 17.  The Texans and Steelers grade out as two of the best defenses in the NFL.

Kansas City ranks 4th in scoring defense this season allowing 19.2 points per game.  The Chiefs get both DT Chris Jones and CB Jaylen Watson back from injury this week.  Jones was lost to injury against the Texans, and Watson hasn't played since October 20th.  The Chiefs are back to full strength defensively, and this is arguably the best defense in the NFL when that's the case.

The key weakness the Texans have is on offense.  They were already without Stephon Diggs, and now they are without Tank Dell as well.  They lost Dell after scoring a TD to cut the deficit to 17-16 in the 3rd quarter against the Chiefs int hat first meeting.  They were outscored 10-3 the rest of the way without him and couldn't get anything going on offense.

While the Texans had a good offensive showing last week at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, that was in a controlled environment in a dome.  Now this dome team has to go outdoors with temps in the teens in Kansas City on Saturday and some steady winds.  They have gone 0-3 SU in their three road games in colder weather this season losing to the Packers, the Jets and the Chiefs.  They averaged just 18.0 points per game in those three losses.

I also think the Texans are getting too much credit for that win over the Chargers last week.  Keep in mind the Chargers were up 6-0 and looking to add to it in the final two minutes of the 1st half.  But CJ Stroud picked up a fumble and converted a crazy 3rd and long and it changed the entire game.  The Texans outscored the Chargers 10-0 in the final two minutes to take a 10-6 lead into halftime.  The Chargers never recovered, and Justin Herbert played one of the worst games of his career.  Herbert threw 4 interceptions in that game after throwing a total of 3 interceptions all regular season.  It was very fluky.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in his career in the Divisional Round, completing 70% of his passes with a 16-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Chiefs have averaged 6.4 yards per play in the playoffs with Mahomes at the helm.  In the playoffs, 18 straight favorites of -7 or more have won their games straight up.  I think the Chiefs still cover -7.5 in this game, but my favorite way to play it is with a 6-point teaser paired with Ohio State on Monday.  Bet the Chiefs Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -3

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  After opening 4-1 this season, the Fighting Irish lost their best player in Markus Burton (19.0 PPG).  They promptly lost their next five games.

It's no surprise that since getting Burton back in the lineup, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 1 against UNC, by 1 at NC State and by 8 at Duke before crushing Boston College by 18.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over Syracuse today.

Notre Dame beat Syracuse 69-64 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having Burton.  Having him back will allow them to complete the season sweep with ease today.  This is a struggling Syracuse team that is 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  

Forward Donnie Freeman (13.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is questionable for the Orange today.  Freeman had 20 points and 11 rebounds in that first meeting with the Fighting Irish.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/South Dakota OVER 170

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 14-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 3rd in adjusted tempo, 97th in adjusted offense and 355th in adjusted defense.

Two games back the Coyotes lost 119-104 in regulation at St. Thomas for 223 combined points.  They have combined for at least 174 points with their opponents in five of their last six games.

While North Dakota State likes to play slow, South Dakota will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bison are 39th in adjusted offense and 277th in adjusted defense.  They still profile as an OVER team going 12-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on SMU -5

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next five games without him to fall to 4-13 SU & 3-14 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-13 SU in its last 14 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

SMU is 13-4 this season with the four losses coming to UNC, Duke, Mississippi State and Butler.  Three of those are among the best teams in the country.  The Mustangs have pretty much handled the teams they are supposed to, and I fully expect them to handle the Hurricanes today.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arizona/Texas Tech OVER 150.5

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession and 16th in offensive efficiency.  They like to play fast and they do it efficiently.  They are scoring 84.2 points per game this season.

Texas Tech doesn't play fast, but they are super efficient on offense.  The Red Raiders rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 7th in effective FG percentage and 8th in 3-point shooting percentage.  They score 83.9 points per game and are 10-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier +10

I love this spot in conference play.  I love revenge-minded underdogs on the road after losing at home to their opponent in their first meeting this season.  Xavier fits the bill after losing 72-70 at home to Marquette as 4.5-point dogs on December 21st.  Now the Musketeers are catching a whopping 10 points in the rematch, and it's too much.

What makes me like this value even more is the fact that Xavier was without its best player in Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) in that first meeting with Marquette.  Having him back healthy for the rematch will make a huge difference.

The Golden Eagles have been living on the edge here of late and have gone 6-1 SU but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat DePaul by 2, Georgetown by 8, Creighton by and Xavier by 2 during this stretch.  Their luck may run out today, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We are seeing that as the Tigers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now Auburn just lost its best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury and he is out for this game.  They lost him in their narrow 66-63 win as 16.5-point favorites at South Carolina two games ago.  They were able to get by at home against Mississippi State in their next game thanks to shooting 55% and holding the Bulldogs to 34.9%.

But now the Tigers go on the road without Broome for the first time this season.  And they face one of the most improved teams in the country in Georgia, which is 14-3 SU this season.  That includes a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they have wins over the likes of Notre Dame by 21, Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 12.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

15* K-State/Kansas CBS ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 139.5

Kansas is a dead nuts UNDER team. The UNDER is 14-0 in Jayhawks last 14 games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in each of their last five Big 12 games.  They rank 3rd in adjusted defense and 347th in average length of defensive possession, so they make opponents really work to get a shot up.

Kansas State is a better defensive team than offensive team.  The Wildcats also make opponents work ranking 284th in average length of possession on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in K-State last six games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in five of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington +9.5

George Washington is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Colonials have gone 13-4 SU this season.  They pulled the outright upsets in two of their last three beating Dayton by 20 as 9-point home dogs and Rhode Island by 8 as 6-point road dogs.

Speaking of Dayton, George Mason just pulled the upset by 8 at Dayton as 7.5-point dogs last time out.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Patriots, who have another big game on deck against St. Bonaventure on the road.  The Patriots failed to cover in each of their last two home games beating Richmond by 6 as 12-point favorites and UMass by 7 as 11-point favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet George Washington Saturday.

15* Creighton/UConn FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148

UConn ranks 325th in adjusted tempo and 311th in average length of offensive possession.  The Huskies profile as an UNDER team, especially since they are without second-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG) right now.  The Huskies have scored and allowed 68 or fewer points in each of their last two games without McNeely.

The Creighton Bluejays lost Pop Isaacs (16.3 PPG) earlier this season.  They have had to rely more on defense since losing him.  The Bluejays rank 43rd in adjusted defense and they have allowed 65 or fewer points in four of their last nine games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 129 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  The Huskies and Bluejays have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Houston/UCF Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 137.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 40th in adjusted tempo, 31st in average length of offensive possession and 61st in offensive efficiency.  They will control the tempo playing at home against the Houston Cougars today.

The OVER is 11-3 in UCF's last 14 games overall.  The Knights and their opponents have combined for at least 149 points in 11 of those 14 games.

The Houston Cougars have played four of their last five Big 12 games against teams that profile as under teams.  They did go for 141 combined points with BYU, which is the one team that doesn't.  They also went for 144 combined points with Kansas State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Boise State/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 151.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 5th in average length of possession on offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight against Boise State.

The Broncos are an elite offensive team that has taken a big step back defensively this season.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 88th in adjusted defense.  This profiles as a shootout tonight in the first meeting between the Lobos and Broncos this season.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Boise State and New Mexico with 159 or more combined points in four of the five meetings.  In two regular season meetings last season, they combined for 166 and 168 points.  

Their 3rd meeting last season in the MWC Tournament was the only game that went under, but that was played on a neutral in an unfamiliar shooting background.  And boy did they struggle shooting as Boise State shot 20-of-68 (29%) from the field while New Mexico shot 5-of-20 (25%) from 3 and 15-of-24 (62%) from the FT line.  That's not going to happen again.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 239.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Spurs will be meeting for a 2nd time in 3 days in San Antonio tonight.  The first went over the total of 239.5 with a 129-115 victory by Memphis.  I expect the rematch to be much lower scoring.

Memphis shot 50% as a team including 42% from 3-point range in that first meeting.  San Antonio shot decent too at 45% overall and 37% from 3.  I suspect the shots won't come as easy now that these teams know how to defend one another.

It's worth noting JA Morant is questionable with a foot injury after going for 21 points and 12 assists in that first meeting.  If he doesn't play this total will crater, and I still like the UNDER even if he does.

That was a rare shootout in this series between the Grizzlies and Spurs.  In fact, the previous three meetings saw 187, 196 and 204 combined points.  These teams have combined for 228 or fewer points at the end of regulation in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Bulls OVER 235.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Charlotte Hornets play a lot faster and are a lot more efficient on offense when La'Melo Ball (29.6 PPG, 7.5 APG) is on the court.  

Well, Ball is healthy and in the lineup now.  The Hornets went OVER the total in each of their last two games combining for 233 points with Phoenix and 229 with Utah, which was a depleted Utah team.

The Bulls are also getting healthy on the injury front with Coby White (18.5 PPG), Josh Giddey (11.6 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Ayo Dosunmu (12.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) all expected to play tonight.  And Lonzo Ball is healthy now and will get to face his brother tonight, which should be fireworks.

I nearly stayed off this total because the last seven meetings between the Bulls and Hornets have all stayed under this total.  But amazingly, La'Melo Ball didn't play in any of those seven games as he was not healthy.  With the Bulls' shift in offensive philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's, this meeting with Ball in the lineup will be much higher scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11.5

The Toronto Raptors are healthy right now with the exception of Immanuel Quickley.  They have managed to win their last two games without him pulling the 104-101 upset as 5.5-point home dogs to Golden State and the 110-97 upset as 14.5-point home dogs to Boston.

The Raptors avenged an earlier blowout loss to the Celtics in their previous meeting, and now they'll be looking to avenge a 128-104 loss to the Bucks in their last meeting on January 6th.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Bucks are getting a lot of respect now after two blowout home wins over Sacramento and Orlando as short favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall.  I don't see them being all that motivated to beat the Raptors again, and this is a clear letdown spot for them tonight.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joe's +2

St. Joe's returned home from two straight tough road losses at Saint Louis and at Duquesne and responded with a 93-57 blowout of Loyola-Chicago as 5-point favorites on Saturday.  They reeled off their 4th consecutive blowout home win with three of them coming by 18 points or more.  They also beat Villanova at home earlier this season.

Now the Hawks have had the last five days off and will be fresh and prepared to take down VCU tonight.  The Rams don't have the same luxury after beating Saint Louis at home on Tuesday.  They have only had two days off to get ready for this game and with travel involved.

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in true road games this season with their lone win coming against that bad Loyola-Chicago team that St. Joe's beat by 36.  They lost by 7 at New Mexico as 4-point dogs and by 2 at St. Bonaventure as 2-point favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

20* Gonzaga/Oregon State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10

The Oregon State Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 13-5 SU & 13-4 ATS this season.  Three of the five losses came by 3 points or fewer to Oregon, North Texas and Santa Clara with two of those on the road.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.  Bet Oregon State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But it's no big deal considering they blasted the Nets 126-67 at home for the largest blowout of the season.

Because of the blowout, the Clippers will still be fresh considering all five starters played less than 24 minutes.  This will also be the just 3rd game in 8 days for the Clippers, so they should still be fresh and ready to go.

The Blazers are 2-6 SU in their last eight games.  Their last two were very concerning as they lost by 18 at home to that same Nets team, and by 21 at home to Miami.  Injuries are starting to pile up for the Blazers as they are without Grant, Clingan and Tybulle.  Now Avdija is out, and he has been huge for them scoring at least 14 points in nine of his last 10 games.  He sat out that 132-114 loss to the Nets.

The Clippers own the Blazers going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point.  That includes a 127-105 home win by the Clippers in their most recent meeting on December 3rd.  I expect them to win with room to spare again tonight.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Rockets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup.  Now they should get Malik Monk back as well, and all of their important players are healthy for this showdown with the Houston Rockets.

The OVER is 5-1 in Kings last six games overall with 228 or more combined points in five of those six games.  They just combined for 245 points with Milwaukee last time out and 243 with Chicago the game prior.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five games overall with 234 or more combined points in all five games.  They Rockets are without one of their best defenders in Jabari Smith, and Amen Thompson is getting a lot more minutes in his place and it's an upgrade on offense.

The Rockets have scored at least 119 points in five consecutive games.  The Kings have scored at least 113 points in nine of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with 231 or more combined points in seven of them, and 239 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Northwestern ML +105

I love the spot for Northwestern tonight.  The Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory off three straight losses against a brutal schedule.  They lost road games at Penn State and Purdue before a home loss to Michigan State, falling to 8-1 SU at home this season.  They beat Illinois at home earlier this season.

Maryland is coming off consecutive home wins over UCLA and Minnesota.  Now the Terrapins hit the road where they are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in true road games this season, losing at Purdue, at Oregon and at Washington.  They should not be favored on the road against the Wildcats tonight.

Northwestern has a big rest and preparation advantage.  The Wildcats have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 11 days.  The Terrapins have only had the last two days off and will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  Bet Northwestern on the Money Line Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/South Dakota State OVER 155.5

The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 9-1 in their last 10 lined games with 155 or more combined points in nine of the 10, including 162 or more combined points in six consecutive games.  They rank 345th in adjusted defense.

North Dakota likes to play fast ranking 127th in adjusted tempo.  South Dakota State likes to play even faster ranking 93rd in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 159 or more combined points in four of their last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on Oral Roberts/South Dakota OVER 172

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 13-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 89th in adjusted offense and 357th in adjusted defense.

The Coyotes are coming off a 119-104 loss in regulation at St. Thomas for 223 combined points.  They have combined for at least 175 points with their opponents in four of their last five games.

Oral Roberts also likes to play fast and plays zero defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 131st in adjusted tempo and 360th in adjusted defense.  So these are two of the worst eight teams in the entire country defensively.  Points will be plentiful.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

This is exactly the type of game Memphis loses outright.  They are riding a four-game winning streak, but their last two games they were fortunate to escape with victories.  They won by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites over North Texas and then by 4 as 12.5-point home favorites over East Carolina.

Now their luck may run out tonight as they hit the road to face a Temple team that is vastly improved this season.  The Owls are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Buffalo by 20 as 14.5-point home favorites, Wichita State by 6 as 1-point home favorites and Rice by 3 as 1-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came by 1 as 3-point dogs at East Carolina.

Temple is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Memphis.  They lost by 7 as 9-point dogs and by 2 as 5.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings in this series.  I think they can take the Tigers to the wire again tonight at home where they are 6-0 SU this season.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Charlotte Hornets -5

The Charlotte Hornets recently got both La'Melo Ball and Brandon Miller back from injury.  Those two are huge for them as Ball averages 30 points and over 7 assists per game while Miler averages 21 points per game. 

The Hornets have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They pulled the outright upset over the Suns and also took the Suns to the wire on the road in their last two games.

But this is as much a play against the Utah Jazz as anything. The Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.

That's a lot of production lost.  I don't see how they can keep this game competitive tonight without all these guys.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 221

The Utah Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost, and the Jazz will struggle offensively tonight.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Hornets last nine games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.  The Jazz and their opponents have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games, including 204 or fewer combined points in three of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +5.5

Loyola-Chicago is the most overrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Ramblers 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The wins weren't impressive as they came by 2 as 10.5-point favorites over USF, by 12 as 24-point favorites over Canisius and by 11 at lowly La Salle.

They suffered three outright upset losses, and against the best teams they faced they lost by 10 on a neutral to San Francisco, by 19 at home to VCU and by 36 at Saint Joseph's in their last game over the weekend.

Rhode Island is 13-3 this season.  Two of the three losses came against two of the better teams in the Atlantic 10 in Duquesne and George Washington.  They have upset wins over Providence and George Mason.

The Rams are better everywhere when you look at the metrics, especially on defense where they are 72nd while the Ramblers are 136th.  The Ramblers are also one of the worst teams in the country in FT shooting (64.8%), which could easily come into play here.  Bet Rhode Island Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois-Chicago ML -115

Illinois-Chicago is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley.  The Flames have gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are 6-2 SU in their last eight games with 5 outright upsets, including an upset of Drake.

Their two losses came by a combined 6 points to Bradley and Belmont. Murray State is just 4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS in its last nine games.  But the Racers are getting some respect after winning and covering their last three games.  

I just am not a fan of Murray State head coach Steve Prohm.  I think the Racers will be fat and happy tonight heading into this game. Illinois-Chicago will be pissed off after losing basically at the buzzer to Bradley after leading that game the entire way. I look for the Flames to rebound tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley OVER 154.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games overall. In those 13 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 12 of them.  

That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 154.5-point total.  So this total of 154.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 8th in adjusted tempo and 285th in adjusted defense.

Bradley is a very good offensive team ranking 18th in effective FG percentage, and 3rd in 3-point percentage.  Each of the last three meetings between Bradley & Indiana State have seen 156 or more points at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12.5

The Boston Celtics have been overvalued all season after winning the NBA title last season.  They are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  In their last two games, the Celtics lost outright by 17 as 11.5-point home favorites to the Kings and only won by 1 over the Pelicans as 14.5-point home favorites.

Toronto has been much more competitive at home this season going 8-13 SU but 13-7-1 ATS.  They just upset the Warriors in their last home game.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Raptors haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last seven home meetings with Boston.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing Toronto pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Raptors OVER 229.5

The Toronto Raptors rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating so they profile as an OVER team. The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of Immanuel Quickley. They will control the tempo playing at home and push the pace.

The Celtics are also fully healthy and rank 2nd in offensive rating.  They are tough to tame on that end with all their firepower when healthy.  Boston went for 239 combined points with the Pelicans last time out.

Toronto went for 237 combined points with Detroit & 258 with Cleveland in two of their last three games.  This total just feels a little short given how healthy both teams are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +10

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force over the weekend.

Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from an 83-77 loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on December 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and are very live underdogs.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Lobos.  They are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall and coming off a dominant 14-point home win over San Diego State.  That sets them up for a letdown and sandwich spot with a big game against Boise State on deck.  The Lobos won't be that motivated to beat San Jose State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* Nuggets/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Mavericks and Nuggets.  Points will be very hard to come by in the rematch with these teams so familiar with one another as this is actually their 4th and final meeting of the season now.

The total closed 232 in that first meeting and the Nuggets won 112-101 for just 213 combined points.  The Nuggets actually shot well from the floor too at 49%, while the Mavericks shot 41% overall and 35% from 3.

No question the Mavericks could see some positive shooting regression with the chance that Kyrie Irving returns from an illness, but they are still without Luka Doncic.  I don't think the Mavs will be hitting on all cylinders offensively tonight by any means.

The Mavs have been relying on defense without their stars as the UNDER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in all four games.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Nuggets last six games overall with 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in all six games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Bucks OVER 228

The Sacramento Kings have De'Aron Fox back and healthy right now and they are rolling offensively with him in the lineup.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kings last five games overall where they have scored at least 114 points in all five games, and 123 or more in four of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks have both Giannis and Lillard healthy right now and they are the keys to their success offensively.  The Bucks are also playing well on that end averaging 116.0 points per game in their last four games.  They are coming off 246 combined points with the Knicks in their last game.

I love OVERS in these non-conference games with teams that aren't familiar with one another because it tends to favor offense over defense.  Well, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Kings and Bucks with 233 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Hawks OVER 234

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 21st in defensive rating.  They will be ready to run tonight after having the last four days off, and they will control the tempo playing at home.

The Suns have the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy right now and they thrive on offense when that's the case.  The Suns have scored 120, 114 and 123 points in their last three games coming in.  But this is a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 238, 243 and 249 points in their last three meetings, and 232 or more points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 162.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 2nd in adjusted tempo, 6th in average length of offensive possession and 2nd in offensive efficiency this season.  They play fast and they do it as efficiently as anyone in the country.

Alabama is coming off a 94-88 win at Texas A&M for 182 combined points.  In tehir last two home games, the Crimson Tide won 107-79 over Oklahoma for 186 combined points and 105-82 over South Dakota State for 187 combined points.

Ole Miss has gone under the total in seven of their last eight games, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Rebels rank 31st in offensive efficiency and have the ability to keep up with Alabama in a shootout.  They rank 94th in average length of offensive possession so they like to get shots up quickly, too.

In their lone meeting last season, Alabama beat Ole Miss 103-88 for 191 combined points.  It will be more of the same in their first meeting of the 2024-25 season tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Texas A&M/Kentucky ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 158

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of possession on offense and 3rd in offensive efficiency.  They are averaging 89.2 points per game this season.

Texas A&M is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season.  The Aggies rank 29th in adjusted offense and they are playing faster ranking 130th in average length of offensive possession.

The Aggies lost 94-88 at home to Alabama for 182 combined points and won 80-78 at Oklahoma for 158 combined points in their last two games despite being without Wade Taylor, who is likely out again tonight.

Kentucky is coming off a 95-90 win at Mississippi State for 185 combined points.  The Wildcats beat Florida 106-100 in their last home game for 206 combined points in regulation.  

Texas A&M beat Kentucky 97-87 in their last meeting last season for 184 combined points.  They combined for 178 points at the end of regulation in their previous meeting last season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +8

The Auburn Tigers just lost their best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury in their last game.  They struggled to get by a very bad South Carolina team 66-63 as 16-point favorites.  Broom is out again tonight, and the Tigers are on upset alert without him.

Mississippi State (14-2) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency.  They have very few weaknesses.

The Bulldogs have actually played their best basketball on the road going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They beat SMU 84-79 as 1.5-point road favorites, beat Memphis 79-66 as 2-point road favorites and topped Vanderbilt 76-64 as 2-point road favorites.  They should not be 8-point underdogs tonight without Broome.  

This has been a tightly-contested rivalry with eight of the last 10 meetings either decided in OT or by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Mississippi State Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis +10

It was going to take some time for the Saint Louis Billikens to gel as a team.  They have a first-year head coach in Josh Schertz from Indiana State bringing over his best transfers to pair with what was left over for the Billikens.

After opening 7-6 SU & 2-9 ATS, the Billikens have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall and have gelled in a big way.  They beat Fordham 88-63 as a PK on the road, beat Saint Joseph's 73-57 as 2-point home favorites and beat St. Bonaventure 73-68 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now the Billikens have had the last five days off and will be fresh and ready to give VCU a run for its money as double-digit underdogs tonight.  VCU recently lost to that same St. Bonaventure team and only beat Fordham by 12 at home while Saint Louis beat them by 25 on the road.  That gives these teams some recent common opponents and shows the Billikens are playing the better basketball right now.  Bet St. Louis Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY in Villanova/Xavier UNDER 146

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team and has been for years.  The Wildcats rank 348th out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo.  They are 327th in average length of possession on offense and 322nd on defense.

The Xavier Musketeers are a much improved defensive team this season.  They rank 61st in adjusted defense.  They make opponents work to get shots ranking 312th in average length of possession on defense.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and would be 9-1 in the last 10 meetings if not for OT.  Villanova and Xavier have combined for 131 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 7-2 in Grizzlies last nine games overall with 229 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 234 or more in seven of them.

That 234-point effort came against the Rockets on January 9th, and now they play the Rockets again less than a week later.  But that game saw an unusual low-scoring 4th quarter with just 41 combined points in the 4th.  That's not going to happen again, and you can see the potential for this game to be even more high-scoring.

Houston shot 43% as a team in that game and 24-of-41 (59%) from the FT line as well.  Memphis shot just 31% from 3-point range and also missed 9 FT. Houston has gone for 234 or more combined points in three consecutive games now.  These teams have combined for at least 234 points in three consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Rams +8.5/Bills -2.5. I have since added 6-point teasers with the Rams +8.5 paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better and Chiefs -2.5 or better.

The Los Angeles Rams rested starters in Week 18 and will be fresh as a result.  They returned from their bye early in the season and have been almost fully healthy since.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their 11 games since the bye week excluding Week 18 when they rested starters.  Now they essentially are coming off a bye week and carrying that momentum into the NFC Wild Card Round.  

The Rams will be playing for the city of Los Angeles and the fires, so they will be extra inspired.  And I don't think the venue change to Arizona makes much of a difference.  The Rams don't have much home-field advantage anyway, and they have been great on the road this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  They are also used to playing in Arizona, and they have decided to use the visiting locker room so they are familiar and comfortable.

Matthew Stafford has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last seven games and I trust him a lot more than Sam Darnold in this one.  He is great at beating the blitz, and the Vikings blitz as much as anyone in the NFL.  Sean McVay is smart enough to run short crossing routes to beat the blitz.  Puka Nacua will have a huge game.

The Vikings were 'all in' in Week 18 playing for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  Darnold had his worst game of the season consistently overthrowing receivers.  The Vikings lost 31-9 at Detroit.  They squandered several scoring opportunities due to Darnold's ineptitude.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank playing all out for a 13th consecutive week since having an early bye in Week 6.

That was basically the first playoff game that Darnold has ever played in with pressure at the highest level.  And now this will officially be Darnold's first playoff game.  NFL teams with a QB making their postseason debut against a team with a QB that has played a playoff game previously are 19-37-1 ATS since 2002.

We have already seen this matchup once with the Rams beating the Vikings 30-20 at home as 3-point underdogs on October 24th.  This was a dominant effort for Los Angeles with 386 total yards compared to just 276 for Minnesota, so the Rams outgained the Vikings by 110 yards.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here.

Stafford went 25-of-34 for 279 yards and 4 TD with one INT in the win.  Nacua had 7 receptions for 106 yards as well.  Brian Flores isn't going to change what he does now and stop blitzing.  I also think Darnold will be under duress for four quarters playing behind one of the most suspect offensive lines in the league.  Head coach O'Connell can't help himself and keeps running deep routes for his receivers giving Darnold no outlets, and even when he has them he doesn't see them half the time.  

Los Angeles has allowed 14 points or fewer in four of its last five games not including Week 18.  The Rams have a great pass rush and the Vikings are weak at the tackle position in terms of pass blocking.  They haven't really recovered since losing LT Darrisaw as his replacement in LT Robinson is one of the worst pass blockers in the league.  

Look for DT Fiske (8.5 sacks, 10 TF), LB Young (7.5 sacks, 12 TFL) and LB Verse (4.5 sacks, 11 TFL) to get after Darnold consistently and make life tough on him like the Lions did last week.  And that's a Lions defense that is one of the worst in the NFL in their current state.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rams Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 222.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 223 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 222.5 is very low for a game involving the Wizards.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a 127-125 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, who also like to play fast like the Wizards.  They have played a brutal schedule of opposing defensive teams with six of their last nine games coming against teams that rank Top 7 in defensive rating.  Now they get a reprieve here and will hang a big number on the Wizards to lead us to cashing this OVER 222.5 ticket.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with 220 or more combined points in all 12 meetings, including 225 or more in 11 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Hornets/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.9 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court.  He is healthy and on the court right now for the Hornets, and so is Brandon Miller (21.2 PPG).  The Hornets have battled injuries all season but are about as healthy as they have been all year right now.

The Hornets also come in on four days' rest, so they have a lot of energy and will be looking to push the pace today behind Ball.  I think we are going to get a shootout with the Suns, who are also fully healthy right now with Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic all on the court.

The Suns have gone for 123 and 114 points in their last two games with all of these guys.  They will be looking to avenge a 115-104 loss at Charlotte on the 2nd of a back-to-back on January 7th.  It took a miracle to keep that game under the 225.5-point total.

Indeed, the Suns shot 39-of-92 (42%) from the field and 8-of-33 (24%) from 3-point range in that game while the Hornets shot 38-of-98 (39%) from the field and 13-of-47 (28%) from 3-point range.  It still saw 219 combined points.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch as they cannot possibly shoot any worse.  It was played at a fast pace and this one will be, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Wizards OVER 231

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They host an Oklahoma City Thunder team that also likes to play fast ranking 9th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.

This has been a very high-scoring series.  The OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings with 228 or more combined points in all six meetings, including 237 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4

The Philadelphia Eagles are the most complete team in the NFC.  They are as healthy as they could possibly be after resting their starters in Week 18.  Jalen Hurts returns this week, he has his full compliment of weapons, and amazingly the Eagles have all 22 starters from Week 1 healthy and on the field heading into the playoffs.

Healthy is a big issue for the Green Bay Packers.  They played their starters in the final two weeks of the season despite both games being pretty much meaningless.  Jordan Love got knocked out of their Week 18 game against the Bears, and they lost his favorite deep target in Christian Watson to a season-ending injury in that game to boot.

The Packers are limping into the postseason.  They managed just 271 total yards in a loss to the Vikings and were upset 24-22 by the Bears in Week 18 as 10-point favorites.  Love will try to play through a right elbow injury.  Watson and his 290 receptions for 620 yards is out.  Four starters are questionable on defense in LB Walker, LB Cooper, SS Williams and NB Bullard.  They are without top CB Jaire Alexander to a season-ending injury.

The Eagles have quietly gone 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The only game they lost Hurts got injured early against the Commanders in a 36-33 defeat on the road.  Their defense is elite allowing 20 points or fewer in 11 of their last 13 games during this stretch.  And their offense has taken off since both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith returned to the lineup after a Week 5 bye.  They have scored at least 24 points in 10 of their last 12 games and one game they didn't was in Week 18 when they rested their starters and started a 3rd-string QB.

Love's yards per pass attempt has dipped nearly 2.0 yards when he has been without Watson.  He throws the 2nd-most deep balls in the NFL, but most of that is due to having Watson on the field.  I think the Eagles can bottle up this Green Bay offense, which just hasn't been clicking down the stretch especially without Watson.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are without their two best players in Doncic (28.1 PPG) and Irving (24.3 PPG).  Points are going to be hard to come by for the Mavericks until these two return, and they are going to have to rely a lot more on defense to stay competitive.

They have done a good job of that beating the Lakers 118-97 for 215 combined points and the Blazers 117-111 for 228 combined points in their last two games without them.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Mavericks last six gmaes overall with 228 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.

The Nuggets have their three best players listed as questionable in Jokic (31.6 PPG), Murray (19.0 PPG) and Gordon (13.7 PPG) tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so don't be surprised if any of these guys sit, especially Murray who got injured last night in a 124-105 win over the Nets for 229 combined points.  

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games.  This is an early 3:10 EST tip and these games tend to be lower scoring as NBA teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.