15* Texas A&M/Clemson ABC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +17.5 

Being the No. 1 team in the country coming off a national championship comes with a heavy price tag when it comes to betting.  That’s the case for the Clemson Tigers, who are going to have inflated spreads week in and week out moving forward.  It’s going to make it very difficult for them to cover consistently knowing that the betting public will be quick to back them at any numbers, forcing oddsmakers to inflate their spreads. 

Clemson was fortunate to cover as 36.5-point favorites in a 52-14 win over Georgia Tech last week.  Georgia Tech was putting in a new system under a new coach going away from the triple-option from year’s past, so this was always going to be a tough test for them.  And Georgia Tech fumbled on the 1-yard line going into the end zone for a touchback, and their four turnovers overall were the difference in them covering or not. 

Texas A&M will be the best team that Clemson faces during the regular season, and it’s not even close.  I think the Aggies are fully capable of hanging with Clemson, and they proved that last year.  Clemson only won 28-26 as 11.5-point road favorites at Texas A&M.  I’d argue the Aggies deserved to win that game as they outgained the Tigers by 88 yards and racked up 501 total yards in the loss. 

Jimbo Fisher is one of my favorite head coaches.  He won a National Championship at Florida State and won 10-plus games in five of his final six seasons.  Then he came to Texas A&M and in his first year went 9-4 for their first season of nine-plus since since 2013.  And Fisher is killing it in recruiting, which will keep the Aggies as an SEC West contender for years to come. 

Only 11 starters are back for Texas A&M, but more of his recruits will be seeing playing time this year, which makes them more veteran than that 11 number shows.  And the offense is loaded with seven returning starters, including stud QB Kellen Mond, who accounted for 31 touchdowns last year.  He accounted for four touchdowns in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week as 34-point favorites. 

Clemson also has a loaded offense with eight starters back, but they have some of the same problems as Texas A&M on defense.  Both squads return just four starters on defense.  The Tigers lose their entire defensive line from last year to the NFL.  I know they have talented replacements, but I think Mond can have more success just like he had last year against their defense.  Mond threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson last year. 

Texas A&M is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Texas A&M is 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 September games. 

Plays on road teams (Texas A&M) - after a game where they forced four or more turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +20.5 

Rutgers came into the season undervalued after going 1-11 last year.  I backed Rutgers over UMass in Week 1 and they delivered with a 48-21 victory as 17-point favorites.  After a slow start, they showed some great resiliency and scored the final 41 points of the game. 

This is easily Chris Ash’s best team yet in his 4 years here.  The offense looks to be greatly improved after putting up 554 yards on UMass.  Texas Tech transfer McLane Carter threw for 340 yards in the win, and the Scarlet Knights may finally have a quarterback.  They have always had a competitive defense under Ash, which helps keep them in ball games. 

Rutgers is now 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall dating back to last season.  They covered in each of their final five games of the season against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State last year.  They nearly upset Northwestern losing by just 3 as 20-point dogs.  They also lost by only 4 as 24-point dogs at Michigan State. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes aren’t a team built to cover these big spreads.  They run a ball control offense and a bend but don’t break defense.  It’s tough for them to score enough points to cover these lofty margins.  They didn’t cover as 25-point favorites against Miami Ohio last week.  And they even scored 2 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes of that game to turn a 10-point game into a 24-point win. 

Iowa has a huge game on deck next week against Iowa State.  They could easily be looking ahead to that Top 25 showdown and overlooking Rutgers.  Either way, I think Rutgers is talented enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of the Hawkeyes.  Kirk Ferentz is 19-31 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Iowa. 

Plays on road underdogs (Rutgers) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including their QB returning are 124-69 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

20* Marshall/Boise State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Marshall +12.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd have been a power in Conference USA since Doc Holliday has been there.  He enters his 10th season this year having won eight or more games in five of the last six years overall.  Coming off a 9-4 season last year, the Thundering Herd return 14 starters and are among the favorites to win C-USA. 

Marshall gave up just 21.9 points per game last year and brought back six of its top nine tacklers from that unit.  The stop unit will be good again, and this figures to be one of Marshall’s best offenses in years with eight starters back, including QB Isaiah Green. 

That Marshall offense impressed in Week 1 by beating VMI 56-17.  It’s worth noting it was a 49-7 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Thundering Herd called off the dogs.  Green threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in the win. 

Boise State used a lot of energy coming back from 31-13 down at Florida State to win 36-31 in the heat and humidity last week.  Now the Broncos are on a short week here and probably won’t have a ton left in the tank.  It’s also a letdown spot after that huge road win in Tallahassee. 

The blue turf in Boise State isn’t the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos have consistently been overvalued at home.  They are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Brian Harsin is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State.  Harsin is also 1-9 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Broncos. 

Plays against home favorites (Boise State) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against an opponent that outrushed its last opponent by 200 or more yards are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Friday. 

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -113 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are fighting hard to make the wild card.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 3.5 games of the final wild card spot.  They face a Cincinnati Reds team this series with nothing to play for but pride at 66-75 on the season. 

Arizona has a big edge on the mound in Game 1 today and should be a bigger favorite as a result.  Robbie Ray is 12-7 with a 3.97 ERA in 28 starts with 199 K’s in 152 innings.  He is also 6-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 17 road starts.  Ray has a 4.09 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in four career starts against Cincinnati as well. 

Tyler Mahle is 2-10 with a. 4.80 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Reds.  Mahle just recently returned from the disabled list and is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts. 

Mahle is 1-11 vs. NL teams with an OBP of .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Mahle is 1-9 with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in Ray’s last 10 starts.  Arizona is 8-1 in Ray’s last nine starts during Game 1 of a series.  The Reds are 5-21 in Mahle’s last 26 starts.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Friday. 

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -156

Few teams are playing as well as the St. Louis Cardinals right now.  They are 21-6 in their last 27 games overall and determined to win the NL Central after blowing it in September last year.  They should handle their business here against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 61-79 on the season. 

Miles Mikolas is 8-13 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Mikolas is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Pirates as well. 

Alex McRae will make a spot start for the Pirates today in place of an injured Joe Musgrove.  McRae is 0-3 with a 9.98 ERA for the Pirates this season, giving up 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  The Cardinals should stay hot at the plate against him tonight. 

The Cardinals are 38-14 in their last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 5-0 in Mikolas’ last five starts on four days’ rest.  The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 17-43 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 10-1 in its last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh.  Take the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Packers/Bears 2019 NFL Season Opener on Chicago -3 

I just don’t think people are giving the Bears the respect they deserve heading into 2019.  They feel as if their 12-4 season last year was a one-hit wonder.  Well, the Bears are out to prove that it was no fluke, and I’m a believer against the Packers here in Week 1. 

For starters, the Bears are loaded defensively.  They gave up just 17.6 points per game and 299.7 yards per game last year to rank among the league leaders in both categories.  They only lost CB Bryce Callahan and S Adrian Amos from that team.  Khalil Mack single-handedly wrecks opposing offenses and their trade for him could go down as one of the best trades in NFL history. 

Offensively, the Bears improved in Year 2 under Mitchell Trubisky.  They put up 25.6 points and 344.4 yards per game.  And the scary part is, that was the first year in Matt Nagy’s system for the Bears.  They should only be better with Trubisky now likely to come into his own, and with his plethora of weapons around him.  Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are the receiving options, and Trey Burton is a very good tight end.  They also used their third-round pick on RB David Montgomery after trading away Jordan Howard, and he’s a better fit for Nagy’s system and is drawing rave reviews. 

The Packers gave up 25.0 points per game last year and have failed to upgrade their defense for years.  They finally spent some money in free agency to try and upgrade their pass rush by bringing in Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.  But they lost some key players as well along the front seven in DT Mike Daniels, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/OLB Nick Perry, DE/OLB Clay Matthews and ILB Jake Ryan.  They also lost CB Baushaud Breeland and S Kentrell Brice in the secondary.  This defense is mostly filled with no-name guys that the Packers hope will stick. 

Green Bay needs more production from its offense because it will likely be in a lot of shootouts this season.  Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had a falling out.  They brought in Matt LaFleur to try and turn things around.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2017 and held the same position with the Titans last year.  He and Rodgers are getting along well so far according to reports.  However, I think the Packers could be rusty in Week 1 because Rodgers didn’t play a single snap in the preseason. 

Last year, the Bears only lost 23-24 at Green Bay as 6.5-point dogs in their opener.  They blew a double-digit lead.  They would come back to get revenge 24-17 against Rodgers and the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites in December.  So from a line value perspective alone, I think we are getting good value with the Bears only being 3-point favorites at home in the opener compared to 5.5-point favorites against the Packers at home last year. 

The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.  The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. NFC North foes.  Bet the Bears Thursday. 

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-127) 

The Houston Astros still have a lot to play for.  They are trying to wrestle home-field advantage away from the New York Yankees in the American League.  They are 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the No. 1 seed.  The Astros are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall with nine of those wins coming by two runs or more. 

Wade Miley is quietly having a huge season for the Astros.  He is 13-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Miley is 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle, including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts against them. 

Marco Gonzales is having a decent season for the Mariners are 14-11 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 29 starts.  However, Gonzales has never beaten the Astros, going 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.826 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

Miley is 17-2 when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Mariners are 18-41 in their last 59 road games.  Seattle is 1-5 in Gonzales’ last six road starts.  Houston is 40-13 in its last 53 home games.  The Astros are 10-2 in Miley’s last 12 home starts.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are on a roll right now.  They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall to pull within 3.5 games of the final wild card spot in the National League.  The Padres don’t have much to play for right now as they are 11 games back in the wild card. 

Zac Gallen has been dominant this season with a 2.79 ERA through 12 starts.  He has proven to be a great addition for the Diamondbacks prior to the deadline.  Gallen has a 3.37 ERA in his last three starts for Arizona. 

Chris Paddack started the season great, but he has faltered here down the stretch in his first full season as a starter for the Padres.  Paddack is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings. 

The Padres are 1-5 in Paddack’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego is 0-4 in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 7-1 in its last eight vs. NL West opponents.  The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Gallen’s last five starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-122) 

The Chicago Cubs are on a mission to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central or to at least hang on to a wild card spot.  Motivation won’t be a problem for them the rest of the way.  The same cannot be said for the Mariners, who are 58-81 on the season. 

Felix Hernandez shouldn’t even be in the majors any more.  But since he’s the face of the franchise, he’s getting some starts here down the stretch.  Hernandez is 1-4 with a 6.02 ERA in 10 starts this season, 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six road starts, and 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts. 

Jon Lester will shut down the Mariners today.  He is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts.  Lester is 7-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 14 career starts against Seattle.  He faced the Mariners earlier this season on May 1st and pitching 7 shutout innings in an 11-0 victory. 

Chicago is 20-4 in home games vs. a starter that allows one or more HR’s/start over the last two seasons.  Hernandez is 1-15 vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-139) 

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 19-5 in their last 24 games overall with 15 of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Cardinals are now three games ahead of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central and playing their best ball of the season. 

The San Francisco Giants are just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall to fall eight games back in the wild card race.  They know they are done for at this point and will find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way.  Dereck Rodriquez is 5-7 with a 5.40 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 0-1 with an 11.00 ERA in his last two starts. 

Jack Flaherty is one of the hottest starters in baseball as well.  He was 4-1 with a 0.71 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 38 innings in six August starts.  Flaherty has a 0.98 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star Break as well.  He has been virtually untouchable. 

The Giants are 5-15 in Rodriquez’s last 20 starts.  San Francisco is 3-11 in Rodriquez’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 home games.  St. Louis is 7-0 in its last seven during Game 2 of a series.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-148) 

The Cleveland Indians need to rack up wins quickly.  They are falling behind the Twins in the AL Central, and they are trying to at least cling on to a wild card spot.  They beat the White Sox 11-3 yesterday to bounce back from a three-game losing streak.  Look for more of the same today. 

Mike Clevinger has been dynamite this season for the Indians.  He is 10-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 15 starts, 4-0 with a 1.81 ERA in seven home starts, and 3-0 with a 0.48 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Clevinger is also 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in six career starts against the White Sox. 

Dylan Cease is 3-7 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.635 WHIP in 10 starts for Chicago this season.  Cease has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with an 11.08 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in his last three starts with 16 runs and 5 homers allowed in 13 innings. 

The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 0-7 in its lsat seven games overall.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Cease’s last six starts following a loss in their previous game.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Cleveland.  Roll with the Indians Tuesday. 

15* Notre Dame/Louisville ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +18.5 

This is a great opportunity to buy low on Louisville and sell high on Notre Dame in Week 1.  Louisville is coming off a disastrous 2-10 season last year that came out of nowhere.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame went 12-1 and made the four-team playoff, so expectations are way high on them now. 

Simply put, players quit on head coach Bobby Petrino last year.  They lost their final nine games and rarely were competitive.  Petrino was fired with two games left.  I have no doubt the talent level on that team was better than their 2-10 record, and now new head coach Scott Satterfield should get the most out of these players. 

Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State where he posted a 51-24 record in his six years there.  Fortunately for Satterfield, the cupboard isn’t bare as the Cardinals return 16 starters.  This should be one of the most improved defenses in the country with 10 starters back on defense. 

Offensively, the Cardinals return six starters, including starting QB Jawon Pass.  He has had a lot of success in the simplified offense in the offseason and is ready to take this offense to the next level.  He has stated that he wants to prove to himself and his teammates that they are better than they showed last year, and now it’s time to prove it on the field in Week 1. 

Notre Dame has 13 starters back and is certainly talented, but they have rarely been this heavy of a road favorite under Brian Kelly.  They will have to replace their top two playmakers in RB Dexter Williams and WR Miles Boykin.  Defensively, the Fighting Irish lose three of their top five tacklers from last year and three NFL draft picks. 

Louisville had been to a bowl game in eight straight seasons prior to going 2-10 last year.  They had also won 8 or more games in six straight seasons coming into 2018.  I just don’t think this program will stay down for long, especially with a coach the caliber of Satterfield running the show.  The Cardinals will give the Fighting Irish more than they bargained for in Week 1.  Roll with Louisville Monday. 

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-126) 

The Minnesota Twins are 7-1 in their last eight games overall with all seven wins coming by two runs or more.  They have handled their business against the bad teams in baseball like the Detroit Tigers, who are 40-94 on the season.  The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with all seven losses coming by two runs or more. 

Jake Odorizzi is having a great season in Minnesota.  He is 14-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Odorizzi owns the Tigers, going 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two starts against the Tigers in 2019, allowing just one run and seven base runners in 13 innings. 

Detroit starter Jordan Zimmerman is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-9 with a. 6.24 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in eight home starts.  Zimmerman is 4-5 with a 6.89 ERA in 10 career starts against Minnesota.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Twins. 

Detroit is 3-22 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better this season.  It is losing by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Minnesota is 13-1 vs. an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.90 or worse this season.  It is winning by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Monday. 

15* Houston/Oklahoma ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 80 

This UNDER bet has a lot to do with Oklahoma.  After having a dominant offense over the last two years with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray running the show, the Sooners are sure to take a big step back offensively this year with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts.  He is just as good of a runner or better than both those guys, but he is nowhere near the passer that they were. 

Not to mention, only four starters return on offense.  The Sooners lose leading receiver Marquise Brown and his 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns to the NFL.  Four NFL draft picks are gone from an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award after being named the nation’s top O-Line.  They have three sophomore starters and just 36 career starts returning up front. 

I expect Oklahoma to have one of the most improved defenses in the country after a subpar season that saw them allow 33.3 points and 454 yards per game.  They fired Mike Stoops midseason and now have replaced him with Alex Grinch, who was the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State last year.  Grinch has a ton of talent and experience to work with as the Sooners return eight starters and eight of their top nine tacklers. 

Houston has some talent on offense with QB D’Eriq King and all of his top playmakers back.  But there will be some growing pains early under new head coach Dana Holgorsen and his new scheme.  His scheme is much more complex than the one they ran last year, and it won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1 against this tough Oklahoma defense. 

Houston was decimated by injuries lsat year down the stretch and the numbers took a hit because of it.  I know that they only have four starters back on defense this year, but this unit can only stay healthier.  And they are more experienced than that considering several players were forced into action due to the injuries.  Houston is projected to start nine upperclassmen, which shows the experience. 

Simply put, I believe this total has been inflated based on what these teams did last year.  The Sooners were 9-4 to the OVER while the Cougars were 10-4 to the OVER last year.  Oddsmakers have been forced to adjust accordingly, and this 80-point total is simply too high now. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Houston) - in non-conference D1 games, with an experienced QB returning as a starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1992.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Cougars last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-121) 

The Minnesota Twins are 6-1 in their last seven games overall with all six wins coming by two runs or more.  After a rare loss to the Tigers yesterday, look for the Twins to bounce back with a blowout victory here Sunday in Game 3 of this series. 

Michael Pineda is having a solid season for the Twins.  He is 10-5 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 24 starts this year, including 7-2 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Pineda has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Tigers. 

Spencer Turnbull is 3-13 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 24 starts for the Tigers this season, including 0-8 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.460 WHIP In 13 road starts.  Turnbull is 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins as well. 

Detroit is 1-17 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or better this season.  It is losing by 5.1 runs per game in this spot.  Minnesota is 9-0 when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  It is winning by 4.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +20.5 

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have been as consistent as they come under 7th-year head coach Skip Holtz.  They have won anywhere from 7 to 9 games over the last five seasons since going just 4-8 in his first year on the job.  It’s a team that has proven they can play with the big boys throughout the years, and they are also a contender to win Conference USA. 

The Bulldogs gave up just 23.0 points per game on defense last year and should be good again on that side of the ball with five of their top eight tacklers back.  The improvements should come on offense after averaging just 24.7 points pre game last year.  That was a real down season for a Holtz offense because they had scored 30-plus points per game in the four seasons prior.  Look for them to get back up above that number this season. 

The offense returns six starters and almost all the top playmakers.  QB J’Mar Smith is back after throwing for 3,160 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for three more.  Leading receiver Adrian Hardy (75 receptions, 1,145 yards, 6 TD) is also back, as is leading rusher Jaqwis Dancy (667 yards, 9 TD).  The offensive line returns three starters and 78 career starts and should stay healthier than last year.  This is the 25th-most experienced team in the country. 

I just don’t understand all the hype for the Texas Longhorns this year.  They are getting a lot of respect for going 10-4 last year and beating Georgia in the bowl.  That was a Georgia team that didn’t want to be there after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game that cost them a spot in the four-team playoff.  And keep in mind seven of Texas’ 10 wins last year came by 7 points or fewer, so they were fortunate in close games.  They only won one game by 20-plus points all season. 

Now Texas is one of the least-experienced teams in the country with just eight starters back.  The defense returns just three starters and loses seven of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  This will probably be Tom Herman’s worst defense since he’s been here.  The offense returns just five starters, loses its leading rusher and receiver, and just two starters are back on the offensive line.  Sam Ehlinger is a nice talent, but he will have his hands full early in the season getting in sync with his O-Line and skill players. 

This is definitely a lookahead spot for Texas.  They have a massive game with LSU on deck next week at home.  They could easily be overlooking Louisiana Tech.  And we’ve seen the Longhorns struggle in these early season games against non-conference teams recently.  They’ve been upset by Maryland as 17 and 13-point favorites each of the last two years.  And they barely beat Tulsa 28-21 at home as 22-point favorites last year. 

Louisiana Tech is 7-1 ATS as a dog of 20-plus points over the last 10 yards.  Skip Holtz is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 20-plus points in his career as a head coach.  Holtz is 27-14 ATS in road games as the coach of Louisiana Tech, including 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog over the past five years.  Herman is just 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.  The Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games overall.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -2.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team on the rise under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  He has improved this team in each of his first three seasons, going from 2-10 in Year 1 to 6-7 in Year 2 and 8-5 in Year 3 last season.  Now he has his best team yet and some stability in the program with how well he has recruited.  The Cavaliers are a legit contender to win the Coastal this year. 

Last year, the Cavaliers lost five games, but three were by 4 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played.  Now they have 14 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters back from a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Cavaliers return stud quarterback Bryce Perkins, which will help make up for the fact that they only return six starters on that side of the ball.  Perkins threw for 2,680 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 923 yards and nine scores.  The offensive line returns three starters and they have 17 offensive linemen on scholarship, so Mendenhall now has the numbers he wants up front. 

Pittsburgh came out of nowhere to win the Coastal last year.  They did so despite finishing with just a 7-7 record, and they clearly weren’t the best team in the Coastal.  Now the Panthers have just 101 starters back this year and I expect them to be one of the worst teams in the division. 

The losses on offense are huge as they return just five starters and lose two 1,000-yard backs in Quadree Ollison (1,213 yards, 11 TD) and Darrin Hall (1,144 yards, 10 TD).  They rushed for 228 yards per game last year, but only passed for 142 per game.  So now they are going to have to throw the ball more with Kenny Pickett, who only completed 58.1% of his passes last year and just isn’t that good.  Only one starter returns on the offensive line and just 37 career starts.  Pickett will struggle once again this season, especially in Week 1 against one of the best defenses in the country. 

Pittsburgh had just a mediocre defense last year that gave up 27.8 points and 388 yards per game.  After having nine starters back on that unit, the Panthers now only have five starters back on defense.  That was supposed to be six, but then their best defender in DE Rashad Weaver (47 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 14 TFL) suffered a season-ending ACL injury in fall camp.  So they now lose four of their top six tacklers and this unit won’t be better than last year. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 13-23 home loss to Pitt as 7-point favorites that ultimately cost them the Coastal.  I think the Cavaliers come into the season with a chip on their shoulder, while Pitt is still feeling fat and happy after winning the division.  The Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -130 

The Minnesota Twins need to be bigger favorites against the hapless Detroit Tigers today.  The Twins have won six straight coming in all by two runs or more.  The Tigers have lost six straight all by two runs or more coming in. 

Martin Perez is 8-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 23 starts this season, 4-2 with a 4.00 ERA in 10 road starts, and 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts.  Perez has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Tigers as well. 

Matt Boyd is 6-10 with a 4.47 ERA in 27 starts this season.  He got off to a great start this year, but has come back down to reality here of late.  Boyd is 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA in his last four starts.  He is also 0-3 with a 7.82 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Twins, yielding 20 earned runs in 23 innings. 

The Tigers are 10-42 in their last 52 home games.  Detroit is 1-11 in Boyd’s 12 starts against a team with a winning record this season.  The Tigers are 1-14 in Boyd’s 15 starts against teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game this season.  Take the Twins Saturday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -127 (Game 1) 

The St. Louis Cardinals are 15-4 in their last 19 games overall and one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are also 4-0 in their last four games following a loss and are coming off a loss to the Brewers.  They had the last two days off and are rested and ready to go today in Game 1 of this double-header with the Reds. 

St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson comes in throwing as well as he has all season.  He is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hudson is also 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 13 home starts this season.  He is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three career starts against the Reds as well. 

Trevor Bauer has really struggled this month and just hasn’t delivered since being traded to Cincinnati.  Bauer is 0-3 with an 11.30 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 7 or more runs in three of his last six starts overall. 

Hudson is 12-1 when starting against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Hudson is 11-0 with a money line of +100 to -150 this season.  The Cardinals are also winning by 3.4 runs per game in this situation.  Bet with the Cardinals in Game 1 Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -5.5 

This game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the pending hurricane, so it will be a home game for the Seminoles.  It’s a Florida State team I’m buying low on early in the season. 

The Seminoles went 5-7 last year for their first losing season since 1976.  They had won 10-plus games in 5 straight years prior to last season.  It was a clear rebuilding year for first-year head coach Willie Taggart.  But unlike most programs, it only takes one year to rebuild Florida State because they recruit so much talent. 

I trust Taggart because he has been a winner everywhere he has gone.  And I think he rights the ship this year with 16 returning starters and a Top 10 recruiting class.  This team will be playing with a chip on their shoulder early.  The hire of offensive coordinator Kendall Briles was one of the best hires in the country. 

Briles guided Houston to 44 points per game & 513 yards per game last year.  In 2017, he was in charge of a Florida Atlantic offense that put up over 40 points pre game and nearly 500 yards per game while winning 11 games.  We saw how much their offense struggled without him last year.  And Briles oversaw a Baylor offense that averaged over 40 points per game and 500 yards per game in his two seasons as coordinator in 2015-16.   

This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country with eight starters back.  Sophomore James Blackman has been named quarterback and I like that move over Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook.  The offensive line was a mess last year, but it won’t be this year.  And the defense should also be vastly improved with eight starters back. 

Boise State has 13 starters back.  They are probably the class of the Mountain West this season, but that’s not saying much.  The biggest concern is losing a 4-year starter at quarterback in Brett Rypien who leaves as the school’s 2nd-leading passer.  Hank Bachmeier is a true freshman who will be making his first start.  He’s talented, but I can’t foresee his first start going well against an opponent the caliber of Florida State.  That’s especially the case the top 2 receivers and leading rusher Alex Mattison also gone from last year’s team. 

In recent years we’ve seen Boise State struggle in these early non-conference games.  They lost by 22 to Ole Miss, by 19 to Virginia and by 23 to Oklahoma State all within the last 5 years.  This is easily one of the toughest non-conference games they’ve ever faced.  Florida State has the talent edge and it’s really not even close.  I expect Taggart to get the most out of that talent starting in Week 1.  Bet Florida State Saturday. 

20* CFB Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rutgers -15 

Rutgers enters the 2019 season with the nation's longest losing streak at 11 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, and I think we are getting them cheap in Week 1 as a result.  They should absolutely crush UMass in their home opener Friday night. 

Rutgers decided to stick with Chris Ash after their 1-11 season.  I think it was a good move to keep some chemistry here and now Ash has easily his best team yet.  And Rutgers wasn’t as bad as their 1-11 record last year either as they nearly beat both Northwestern and Michigan State late in the year.  They lost 15-18 to Northwestern as 20-point dogs and 10-14 at Michigan State as 24-point dogs. 

We saw last year just how underrated this team was down the stretch as Rutgers went 5-0 ATS in its final five games overall while covering against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State.  Four of those five games were competitive and decided by two touchdowns or less, which is impressive against that gauntlet. 

I remember taking Rutgers in their opener last year and they rolled to a 35-7 victory as nearly identical 16-point favorites against Texas State.  UMass is a team that is similar to Texas State talent wise as the Bobcats were one of the worst teams in the country, and this year the Minutemen are the worst team in the country according to Phil Steele, and I certainly agree. 

UMass only returns eight starters this season and is the single least-experienced team in the country this year.  They went 4-8 last season and head coach Mark Whipple stepped down.  In comes Walt Bell, who was the offensive coordinator at Florida State last year in one of the worst offensive seasons in history for the Seminoles.  Whipple certainly left the cupboard very bare here at UMass. 

The Minutemen will certainly have one of the worst defenses in the country, so even a team like Rutgers should be able to score at will on them.  The Minutemen gave up 42.9 points and 485 yards per game last year.  Now they return just three starters on defense and are extremely inexperienced.  They lose their leader in Bryton Barr (147 tackles, 10.5 TFL), who had 75 more tackles than their next leading returning tackler.  This defense could be even worse in 2019. 

The losses are massive on offense as well.  Only five starters return, and they lose all of their top playmakers. UMass loses QB Andrew Ford, who was their starter before going down with injury.  They also lost QB Ross Comes, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio in Ford’s absence.  Also gone is leading rusher Marquise Young as their top returning RB rushed for only 139 yards last year.  And last but certainly not least, stud WR Andy Isabella (102 receptions, 1,698 yards, 13 TD last year) is now in the NFL. 

Rutgers has had a solid defense the last two years, but it’s the offense that has held them back.  They were -14 in turnovers last year and gave the ball away too much.  But with eight starters back on offense, this can only be one of the most improved units in the country.  Ash hasn’t named a starting QB yet, but his team knows who it will be, and that’s all that matters.  Sophomore Artur Sitkowski had a forgettable freshman campaign with 18 interceptions.  So Texas Tech transfer McClane Carter and BC transfer Johnny Langan are now here to push him.  Whoever is under center will have no problem moving the ball against his soft UMass defense. 

Ash has been a double-digit favorite twice the last two years.  He has covered in those games by an average of 17.5 points per game.  UMass is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games during the first two weeks of a season.  The Minutemen are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Independents.  Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Rutgers Friday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-120) 

The Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall and closing in on the Braves in the NL East.  They are on fire at the plate as they have scored at least 7 runs in 11 of those 13 wins.  They should have no problem covering the run line at home against the Marlins Friday. 

Anibal Sanchez is 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 24 starts this season.  He is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA in six career starts against Miami as well.  The Nationals are 6-0 in Sanchez’s last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. 

The Marlins are just 6-20 in their last 26 games overall.  They are at a disadvantage here having played yesterday while the Nationals had yesterday off.  Elieser Hernandez is 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA in five road starts this season for the Marlins.  He has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in two career starts against them. 

Miami is 1-20 in road games vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more homers per game in the second half of the season this season.  They are losing by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Washington is 9-0 vs. an NL team that has an OBP of .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Nationals on the Run Line Friday. 

20* CFB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -2 

The Tulane Green Wave made their first bowl games since 2013 last year and capitalized with a 41-24 win over Louisiana in the Cure Bowl.  Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated coaches in the country with what he is doing down in New Orleans. 

Fritz has gone from 4 to 5 to 7 wins in his first three seasons on the job.  And now he enters Year 4 with his best team yet.  And I love the fact that Fritz realizes this triple-option offense will only carry him so far, so he brought in a new coordinator this year in Will Hall.  He comes over from Memphis and will be running an up-tempo offense that Florida International will not be prepared for. 

The Green Wave return all of their best playmakers on offense for Hall to work with.  QB Justin McMillian is back and is a dual-threat guy.  The top two rushers are back in Darius Bradwell (1,134 yards, 11 TD) and Corey Dauphine (785 yards, 7 TD), as is leading receiver Darnell Mooney (48 receptions, 993 yards, 8 TD). 

I’m also very excited about a defense that returns eight starters and will be the best stop unit that Fritz has had at Tulane.  The Green Wave only had five starters back last year and allowed a respectable 27.5 points per game.  They are loaded up front along the defensive line with all of their starters back, including Patrick Johnson (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks). 

Florida International has exceeded expectations in the first two seasons under Butch Davis.  They have gone 8-5 and 9-4 the last two years and have come very close to winning a C-USA title.  And they have 16 starters back this year and will be solid again, but I just think they’re getting too much respect early in the season. 

FIU feasted on an easy schedule last year as their schedule ranked 123rd in the country.  Tulane played the 79th toughest schedule.  Conference USA in general is one of the weakest conferences in the country, while the AAC is one of the most underrated, which teams like UCF and Cincinnati have proven in recent years.   

FIU only beat two teams that made bowl games last year in Middle Tennessee and Toledo, and they won both those games by a field goal.  Five of Tulane’s six losses last year came against both teams, and three of them were by a touchdown or less.  Four of them were on the road, while the other two at home came in overtime to Wake Forest and by 4 to SMU. 

I think the biggest matchup here that is going to go in our favor is FIU’s inexperienced offensive line up against Tulane’s dominant defensive line, which is the best in the AAC.  FIU only gave up 8 sacks last year, while Tulane had 41 sacks as a team.  But FIU loses three starters along the offensive line and will be tested like they haven’t been yet. 

Not only will the Green Wave control the line of scrimmage on defense, they’ll also control it on offense.  They rushed for 218 yards per game and 4.7 per carry last season and will be potent on the ground again.  FIU’s weakness last year was up front as they allowed 192 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. 

Tulane is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 17.0 points per game in this spot.  Fritz is 6-0 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Tulane.  The Green Wave are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. C-USA opponents, while the Golden Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. AAC foes.  Bet Tulane Thursday.

15* NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Giants +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-115) 

The Minnesota Twins should have no problem beating the Chicago White Sox by two or more runs today to cover the Run Line.  The Twins have won four straight by two runs or more coming in and are handling their business against the teams they are supposed to like the White Sox. 

Minnesota has a big edge on the mound today with Jose Berrios over Dylan Cease.  Berrios is 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He owns the White Sox, going 9-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 12 career starts against them. 

Dylan Cease is 3-6 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in one career start against Minnesota.  He allowed 5 runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 2-6 home loss to the Twins on July 26th. 

The Twins are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Minnesota is 47-19 in its last 66 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 7-1 in Berrios’ last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 8-1 in Berrios’ last nine starts against the White Sox while winning seven of those by two runs or more.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Thursday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) 

The Boston Red Sox are still alive in the AL wild card race.  They need a big finish to get back to the postseason and defend their World Series crown.  They’re playing a Rockies team that is finding it hard to be motivated down the stretch in going 16-35 in their last 51 games overall. 

Eduardo Rodriquez has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He is 15-5 with a 3.92 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts while tossing 14 1/3 shutout innings. 

Conversely, Peter Lambert is one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 1-1 with a. 6.64 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in eight home starts. 

Rodriquez is 24-2 against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are winning by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Rodriquez is also 9-0 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game over the last two years with the Red Sox also winning by 3.4 runs per game in this situation.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

The Cleveland Indians have absolutely owned the Detroit Tigers.  They are 13-1 against the Tigers this season, and 39-12 in their last 51 meetings overall.  I fully expect them to win by two runs or more tonight thanks to their huge edge on the mound. 

Aaron Civale has been given a rotation spot and he’s made the most of it for the Indians.  He has posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in five starts this season.  One of those starts came against Detroit on June 22nd as he pitched six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory. 

Jordan Zimmerman has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-9 with a 6.48 ERA in 17 starts, including 0-6 with an 8.18 ERA in seven home starts.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-6 with a 10.68 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in eight career starts against them. 

The Indians are 0-7 in Zimmerman’s last seven starts against Cleveland.  The Tigers are 11-46 in their last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Indians are 72-29 in their last 101 games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  Cleveland is 18-1 vs. AL teams that score 3.9 or fewer runs per game this season.  It is winning by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -130 

The San Francisco Giants are still very much alive in the NL Wild card.  They are 4.5 games back and one of the teams they are trailing is the Diamondbacks.  After losing Game 1 of this series, I fully expect the Giants to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight. 

San Francisco starter Jeff Samardzija is riding one of the best stretches of his career.  He is 5-3 with a 2.00 ERA in his last 10 starts, allowing just 14 earned runs in 63 innings. 

Mike Leake is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts for the Diamondbacks.  Leake has been awful on the road all season, going 2-7 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 13 starts.  Bet the Giants Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -107 

We are getting the Minnesota Twins at an excellent value Tuesday at basically even money against the Chicago White Sox.  The Twins are trying to win the AL Central as they are in a dog fight with the Indians. 

Michael Pineda is 9-5 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  Pineda is 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in seven career starts against the White Sox, including 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts against them in 2019. 

Lucas Giolito is having a solid season for the White Sox at 14-6 with a 3.20 ERA, but he’s 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 12 home starts.  And Giolito is 4-4 with a 4.77 ERA in nine career starts against Minnesota.  He gave up 7 runs and 4 homers in 5 innings in his last home start against the Twins. 

The Twins are 17-4 on the road with a line of +100 to -150 this season.  Minnesota is 11-1 when revenging a loss where they scored one run or less this season.  Chicago is 1-12 after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  Roll with the Twins Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +103 

Both the Cubs and Mets are coming off series in which they were swept at home.  I trust the Mets to bounce back more here as home underdogs considering the Cubs are just 12-26 in their last 38 road games, while the Mets are 13-4 in their last 17 home games. 

Marcus Stroman has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-11 with a 3.18 ERA in 25 starts this season despite pitching most of it in the tough AL East for the Blue Jays.  Stroman tossed a complete games shutout in his only career start against the Cubs. 

Yu Darvish is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 26 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.  He just gave up 7 runs and 4 homers in 5 1/3 innings to the Giants in his last start. 

Darvish is 0-8 on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.  The Cubs are 0-5 in Darvish’s last five road starts.  The Mets are 24-5 in their last 29 vs. a right-handed starter, including 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 4-0 in Stroman’s last four starts.  Take the Mets Tuesday. 

20* Cardinals/Brewers ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -131 

This is a huge series for the Milwaukee Brewers as they trail the St. Louis Cardinals by 4.5 games for first place in the NL Central.  I expect the Brewers to take Game 1 of this series at home tonight thanks to their edge on the mound. 

Gio Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He has posted a 3.29 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cardinals.  He just faced them on August 20th in his last start and only allowed one run in 5 innings. 

Adam Wainwright is 9-9 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Wainwright has been awful on the road, going 3-6 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against the Brewers on August 21st. 

St. Louis is 2-14 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 2.00 ERA or better this season.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in Wainwight’s last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Milwaukee is 9-1 in Gonzalez’s last 10 home starts.  Bet the Brewers Monday. 

20* Steelers/Titans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +102 

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a win Sunday after dropping the first two games of this series to the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Diamondbacks are still very much alive in the wild card race and are trailing the Brewers, so this is a huge game. 

Robbie Ray is the best starter in this game today.  He is 10-7 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 28 starts with 187 K’s in 142 innings.  He has some of the best stuff in the game, and he’s 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.827 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. 

Zach Davies is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 8-6 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in 24 starts this season, 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 11 home starts, and 0-3 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts. 

The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Ray’s last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 0-4 in Davies’ last four starts.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -104 

The Mets will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves.  They’ll take Game 3 today to salvage this series and continue their dominance at home. 

Steven Matz has been dominant at home all season.  He is 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 10 home starts this year.  He is also 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts.  Matz is 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 career starts against the Braves as well. 

Dallas Keuchel is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this game.  He is 4-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six road starts. 

The Mets are 12-1 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous games.  New York is 13-3 in its last 16 home games.  The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 during Game 3 of a series.  New York is 21-7 in its last 28 games overall.  The Mets are 10-2 in Matz’s last 12 home starts.  Bet the Mets Sunday. 

20* Arizona/Hawaii 2019 CFB Season Opener on Hawaii +11 

It’s an exciting time of year with college football starting back up on August 24th.  And I’m expecting we could have a huge upset right out of the gates here as Hawaii is more than capable of hanging toe-to-toe with Arizona in the opener.  I’ll take the whopping 11 points for some insurance, though. 

Hawaii OVER 5.5 is one of my favorite season win total bets this year.  There’s several reasons why I’m high on this team.  They return a whopping 18 starters in Year 4 under head coach Nick Rolovic, and this is easily his best team yet.  That’s saying a lot after the Rainbow Warriors went 8-6 last season. 

QB Cole McDonald was one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not many people heard about.  He threw for 3,875 yards with a 36-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 359 yards and four scores.  Most impressively, he put up those numbers despite missing two starts, and played through a torn ligament in his knee for much of the year. 

Now McDonald is back healthy and heading an offense that returns nine starters after returning just three last year.  This is a much more veteran unit that returns all 5 O-Line starters and adds in an Arizona transfer and two JUCO’s who redshirted last year.  McDonald has two stud receivers in Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward, who combined for 130 receptions, 1,835 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. 

Defensively the Rainbow Warriors should be greatly improved.  They gave up 35.1 points and 440 yards per game last season with just five returning starters.  Now they have nine starters back on defense, including each of their top three tacklers from a year ago.  With how good the offense is going to be, the defense just needs to be average for this team to win its share of games. 

Arizona UNDER 6.5 is one of my favorite win total bets as well, so this is an easy choice here.  The Wildcats went just 5-7 in Kevin Sumlin’s first season on the job after he was oustered from Texas A&M.  Sumlin has always been able to recruit decently, but he’s just obviously not a very good head coach. 

You’re going to hear a lot about Arizona QB Khalil Tate once again this season.  He was among the Heisman favorites last year, but injuries hampered him last year and he hardly used his dual-threat ability, only rushing for 224 yards and two touchdowns.  He had to become a pocket passer, which he’s clearly not as he completed just 56.3% of his passes last year.  I think he’s one of the most overrated players in college football, and he’ll once again be protected by the play calling because he means to much to their team, so he won’t run that much. 

Making matters worse for Tate is that each of his top four receivers from last year are now gone.  The Wildcats are expected to start a pair of freshmen at receiver, and chemistry and communication will be an issue in Game 1.  I think their offense will be fine, but it’s no more potent than what Hawaii will put on the field with McDonald and company. 

Defensively, the Wildcats are no better than Hawaii, either.  They gave up 32.6 points per game and 432 yards per game last season despite having eight returning starters.  They also have eight starters back this season on D, so the improvements can’t be great.  This is one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 and the talent level just isn’t there to make much progress. 

Last year, Arizona lost at home to BYU 23-28 as 10-point favorites.  They also lost at Houston 18-45 as 3-point underdogs.  The year before they lost at home to Houston 16-19.  And the year before that, they lost at home to BYU 16-18.  They have obviously been vulnerable early in the season in non-conference play, and I think that’s the case here against a Hawaii team that is one of the most underrated in the country. 

Last year, Hawaii went 4-1 in non-conference play en route to a 6-1 start.  They upset Colorado State as 16-point road dogs, upset Navy as 11-point home dogs, and beat both Rice and Duquesne handily.  Their only loss in the non-conference was at Army 21-28, and that was a terrible body clock game that started at 9:00 AM for them.  They hung right with an Army team for four quarters that won a school-record 11 games last year. 

Hawaii is notoriously underrated to start each season, going 26-11 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.  Arizona is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Wildcats are just 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in all games played away from home the last three years.  Arizona is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 true road games.  The Rainbow Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Hawaii Saturday. 

15* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -3 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+110) 

The Cardinals are fighting for an NL central title, while the Rockies are out of playoff contention.  The Cardinals are playing like it, going 11-3 in their last 14 games overall with nine of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Rockies are just 14-32 in their last 46 games overall. 

Dakota Hudson is also one of the hottest starters in baseball.  He is 2-0 with a. 1.08 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 5-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 home starts this season. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in four road starts. 

Hudson is 11-1 against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Hudson is 10-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-6 in Gonzalez’s last six starts.  St. Louis is 8-1 in its last nine home games.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-145) 

Instead of laying -300 or more on the Twins money line, I’ll back the Twins at a much cheaper price of -145 here on the run line.  They are fighting for an AL Central title and will be highly motivated following an upset loss to the Detroit Tigers yesterday. 

Edwin Jackson is arguably the worst starter in baseball, and the Twins should feast on him tonight.  Jackson is 2-5 with an 8.25 ERA and 1.834 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.68 ERA and 2.514 WHIP in three road starts.  He is also 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota. 

Kyle Gibson is having a solid season for the Twins at 11-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Gibson has had great success against the Tigers of late, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against them. 

The Tigers are 14-49 in their last 63 games following a win.  Detroit is 12-43 in its last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss.  Minnesota is 44-20 in Gibson’s last 64 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 6-2 in Gibson’s last eight starts against the Tigers.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Saturday. 

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans PK 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-111) 

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Cardinals are fighting for an NL Central title and have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with eight of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Rockies are just 14-31 in their last 45 games overall and have fallen out of playoff contention. 

The Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound tonight.  Jack Flaherty is 7-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.104 WHIP In 25 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 12 home starts.  He is 3-0 with a minuscule 0.35 ERA in four starts this month, allowing just one earned run in 26 innings with 31 K’s. 

Peter Lambert is 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  It hasn’t gone any better of late for Lambert, who is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts. 

The Rockies are 2-9 in Lambert’s last 11 starts.  Colorado is 7-22 in its last 29 road games.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games.  St. Louis is 5-1 in Flaherty’s last six starts.  The Cardinals are 41-19 in their last 60 vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 22-6 in its last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Cardinals are 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, and 37-14 in the last 51 meetings in St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-148) 

The Minnesota Twins have a very easy schedule here down the stretch.  I like the fact that they had yesterday off, while Detroit played in Houston.  So they have the rest advantage, as well as the advantage in every phase of the game and should have no problem winning by two runs or more Friday night. 

Ace Jose Berrios is 10-6 with a 3.337 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.228 WHIP In 11 home starts.  Berrios has owned the Tigers of late, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last four starts against them, allowing just 7 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings with 29 K’s. 

Drew Verhagen is 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in three starts this season for the Tigers.  He is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA and 2.422 WHIP in his two road starts as well.  He is no match for a potent Twins lineup that is scoring 5.8 runs per game this season and has the most HR’s in baseball. 

Minnesota is 10-1 after scoring one run or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 10-44 in their last 54 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Minnesota is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Friday. 

15* Bills/Lions CBS No-Brainer on Buffalo -3 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* NFLX Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-135) 

The Nationals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for months.  They are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and have scored 11 or more runs in five of their last seven games coming in.  The Pirates are 8-29 since the All-Star Break and offering little resistance to teams in contention like the Nationals right now. 

Washington will be excited to win this game for Max Scherzer, who makes his return from the disabled list.  He hasn’t pitched since July 25th, but this guy is a warrior and will be just fine.  Scherzer is 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 20 starts this season with 189 K’s in 134 1/3 innings.  He is also 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.863 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh. 

Steven Brault is overmatched here.  He is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has already walked 26 batters in 60 innings.  He is only averaging 5.0 innings per start, so the Nationals should get into the weak Pirates’ bullpen early in this one. 

Washington is 27-8 in its last 35 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nationals are 7-1 in Scherzer’s last eight starts.  Washington is 40-16 in Scherzer’s last 56 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 3-14 in its last 17 home games.  The Pirates are 0-7 in Brault’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Brault’s last five starts overall.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Thursday. 

15* NFLX Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -119 

Great value here with Mike Minor and the Texas Rangers as small home favorites over the Los Angeles Angels.  Both teams have gassed bullpens after playing a double-header yesterday, and after playing two 11-inning games the last two days.  So we want the starter that is going to go deeper, and that is certainly Minor. 

Minor is having a tremendous season.  He is 11-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Minor comes in pitching very well at 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.189 WHIP In six career starts against them. 

Patrick Sandoval gets the ball making just his third start of the season for the Angels.  He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two starts, averaging just 4.5 innings per start.  He’s likely to get roughed up early in this one as well, which will get into that tired Angels bullpen. 

The Angels are 21-49 in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Los Angeles is 3-9 in its last 12 road games.  The Rangers are 9-3 in Minor’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Texas is 6-1 in its lsat seven home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Rangers Wednesday. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -144 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are still fighting for a playoff spot just 4 games back in the wild card.  The Colorado Rockies are 9.5 games back and basically done for.  The Diamondbacks have the motivational and pitching edge tonight over the Rockies. 

Alex Young has held his own this season, going 4-3 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in eight starts for Arizona. Young fired six scoreless innings while allowing just one base runner in a 5-3 win over the Rockies in his lone start against them this season on July 7th. 

Kyle Freeland has been a disaster all season.  He is 3-10 with a 7.08 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He has not had any success against the Diamondbacks this year, either.  Freeland is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Arizona in 2019, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 15 innings. 

The Rockies are 6-20 in their lsat 26 road games.  The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Arizona is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, and 4-0 in the last four home meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-104) 

The Minnesota Twins will want to bounce back from a 6-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this series.  They should be able to come back with a victory by multiple runs in Game 2 thanks to their edge at the plate and on the mound. 

Michael Pineda is 8-5 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 22 starts this season for the Twins.  Pineda has been as steady as they come, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts.  He is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last seven starts coming in.  Pineda has faced Chicago twice in 2019, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA while allowing just 3 earned runs in 13 innings. 

Reynaldo Lopez is 7-10 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Lopez is 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA in five career starts against Minnesota as well.  He allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 2/3 innings of a 4-11 loss at Minnesota on May 24th in his lone start against the Twins this season. 

The White Sox are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 1-5 in its last six games following a win.  The Twins are 42-15 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Minnesota is 42-17 in its last 59 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the White Sox.  Roll with the Twins on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -147 

The Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 7-1 in their last eight games overall and closing in on the Atlanta Braves.  They are having as much fun as any team as well as you can see it with their reactions after every home run. 

There have been a bunch of home runs for the Nationals lately.  Indeed, the Nationals have hit 16 homers over their last three games and have scored a combined 62 runs in their last five games.  They had four homers and 11 extra-base hitts in Monday’s 13-0 victory over the Pirates. 

Stephen Strasburg is 15-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Strasburg owns the Pirates, going 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  He’ll be opposed by Chris Archer, who is 3-9 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.40-7 WHIP in 22 starts this season. 

The Pirates are just 7-28 in their last 35 games overall and finding it hard to be motivated on a nightly basis now that they’re in last place in the NL Central.  Pittsburgh is 1-10 in home games off a loss by 8 runs or more over the last three seasons.  Washington is 44-13 in Strasburg’s last 57 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 0-7 in Archer’s last seven starts.  Take the Nationals Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110) 

The Minnesota Twins just swept the Texas Rangers in four games over the weekend while scoring a combined 35 runs in the process.  Now they hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the division and play 26 of their final 38 games against the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. 

The Twins should stay hot at the plate against Ivan Nova of the White Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday.  Nova is 8-9 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Nova is 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins. 

Kyle Gibson owns the White Sox, going 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He is also 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts against Chicago, giving up just 3 earned runs in 19 innings with 25 K’s. 

Gibson is 20-4 in his career against a team that is outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game in the second half of the season.  The Twins are winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Minnesota is 13-3 in Gibson’s last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 42-16 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Monday. 

15* 49ers/Broncos ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +1.5 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -115 

The Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring an average of 9.4 runs per game during this stretch.  That includes 14, 16 and 17 runs in three of their last four coming in. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-27 in their last 34 games overall and finding it hard to get motivated.  They’ll certainly have a hard time getting motivated today after playing the division rival Cubs in the MLB Little League World Series Classic last night on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. 

Joe Ross has earned his spot in the Nationals’ rotation by going 3-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three.  Ross is also 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. 

Trevor Williams is 5-5 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts.  Not to mention, Williams is 2-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in eight home starts this year. 

The Nationals are 25-7 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 20-7 in Ross’ last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 home games.  Pittsburgh is 1-10 in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 1-5 in Williams’ last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Nationals Monday. 

15* Saints/Chargers CBS No-Brainer on New Orleans -1.5 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Twins +128 

The Minnesota Twins should not be underdogs to the Texas Rangers today.  The Twins are in a battle with the Indians for the AL Central division title and highly motivated.  The Rangers are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall to fall out of playoff contention and are having a hard time getting motivated. 

The Twins have scored 29 combined runs in winning each of the first three games in this series.  They’ll provide Martin Perez with plenty of run support again today as he takes on his former team.  Perez is 7-5 with a. 4.36 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 4.04 ERA in nine road starts. 

Lance Lynn is having a good season at 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 25 starts, including 9-1 with a 3.94 ERA in 12 home starts.  However, that record is getting him too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is easily one of Lynn’s toughest tests of the season here against the red hot Twins. 

The Twins are 5-0 in Perez’s last five starts vs. AL west opponents.  Minnesota is 6-1 in its last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rangers are 0-7 in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Texas is 7-22 in its last 29 during Game 4 of a series.  Minnesota is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the Twins Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -151 

The Minnesota Twins are taking advantage of their easy schedule moving forward, winning the first two games of this series with the Rangers while scoring 17 runs in the process.  The Rangers are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall and will find it hard to be motivated now that they have fallen out of playoff contention. 

The Twins have a big edge on the mound tonight behind Jose Berrios, who is 10-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Berrios has been really good on the road as well at 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 13 starts away from home. 

Ariel Jurado is 5-7 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  It’s amazing that the Rangers continue to send him out there, especially after he just allowed 8 earned runs and 12 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in a 4-19 loss at Toronto last time out. 

The Twins are 17-4 in their last 21 Saturday games.  Minnesota is 41-14 in its lsat 55 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Twins are 6-1 in Berrios’ last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rangers are 1-6 in Jurado’s last seven starts.  Texas is 0-4 in Jurado’s last four home starts.  The Rangers are 0-6 in their last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Twins Saturday. 

15* NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans -4.5 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -110 

The Philadelphia Phillies have awoken and should be bigger favorites here over the Padres.  They have won four straight coming in while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process, which has coincided with Charlie Manuel being named hitting coach.  The Padres are 1-4 in their last five games overall. 

Zach Eflin returns to the rotation and should find some success against a weak Padres lineup that is missing arguably their best hitter in Fernando Tatis Jr.  Eflin has a 3.00 ERA in one career starts against San Diego. 

Dinelson Lamet is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in seven starts while averaging just 5.0 innings per start. 

The Padres are 3-13 in Lamet’s last 16 starts.  San Diego is 0-11 in Lamet’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Phillies are 6-0 in Eflin’s last six home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Philadelphia wins its 5th straight tonight.  Take the Phillies Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros -1.5 (-116) 

The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory Friday night.  They have lost three straight overall and four of their last five coming in for a rare bad stretch.  But now they have ace Justin Verlander on the mound to stop the bleeding and a big edge over Tanner Roark. 

Verlander is 15-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.855 WHIP in 25 starts this season with a whopping 217 K’s in 162 2/3 innings.  He is 18-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 27 career starts against Oakland, including 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against them in 2019, giving up just one earned run in 14 innings with 19 K’s. 

Tanner Roark is 7-8 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Roark is 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

The Astros are 21-5 in Verlander’s last 26 road starts, including 14-3 in his last 17 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Houston is 41-13 in its last 54 vs. AL West opponents.  Houston is 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, including 5-0 in Verlander’s last five starts against the A’s.  Oakland is 1-4 in its last five games following a win.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -118 

The Atlanta Braves want to make a statement in this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and let them know they’ll be a force in the postseason.  The Dodgers don’t have a lot to play for at this point and certainly could be going through the motions down the stretch. 

But the big reason to back the Braves today is due to their edge on the mound.  Mike Soroka is 10-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Soroka is 0-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

Kenta Maeda has been one of the few weak links in the Dodgers’ rotation.  He is 8-8 with a 4.15 ERA in 23 starts this season, 2-5 with a 5.66 ERA in 12 road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.58 ERA in his last three starts overall. 

The Dodgers are 3-8 in Maeda’s last 11 road starts.  The Braves are 6-1 in Soroka’s last seven home starts.  Atlanta is 11-1 in Soroka’s last 12 starts when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Braves Friday. 

25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Panthers UNDER 40.5 

No Analysis for Preseason. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -160 

The Minnesota Twins are just 0.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians for first place in the AL Central.  We know we’re going to get their best effort night in and night out.  The same cannot be said for the Texas Rangers, who are 10-18 in their last 28 games overall. 

Michael Pineda comes back off the disabled list to start this game for the Twins Thursday.  Pineda is 7-5 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA in his last six starts.  In fact, Pineda has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 15 starts overall. 

Pedro Payano will be making his fourth start of the season for the Rangers.  He is 0-1 with a 4.98 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in three starts this season while averaging just 4.2 innings per start.  He has allowed 27 base runners in 12 2/3 innings as walks (10) continue to be an issue. 

The Twins are 7-1 in their last eight during Game 1 of a series.  Minnesota is 35-16 in its last 51 games following a loss.  The Rangers are 2-7 in their last nine home games off a road trip of seven or more days.  Texas is 5-13 in its last 18 vs. a right-handed starter.  Minnesota is 7-1 in Pineda’s last eight starts following a loss in their previous game.  The Twins are 40-14 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  Bet the Twins Thursday. 

15* Raiders/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona -1.5 

No Analysis for Preseason. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -139 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are right in the thick of the wild card race but nobody is talking about them.  They are just 2.5 games back after going 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.  They are swinging a hot bat right now as they have scored at least 6 runs in in six of those 10 contests. 

The Diamondbacks should stay hot at the plate against the awful Kyle Freeland, who is 3-10 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Freeland is 2-4 with a 9.50 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in nine starts at Coors Field this year.  He has faced the Diamondbacks twice in 2019, going 0-1 with a 13.00 ERA while allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 innings. 

Arizona has the clear edge on the mound tonight behind Robbie Ray.  The left-hander is 10-7 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 185 K’s in 140 innings.  Ray is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Rockies this season while allowing just 4 earned runs in 12 innings. 

The Rockies are 13-33 in their last 46 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Ray’s last seven starts.  Colorado is 1-11 in its last 12 vs. a left-handed starter.  The Rockies are 1-5 in Freeland’s last six starts.  Arizona is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-182) Game 1 

The Houston Astros should have no problem beating the Chicago White Sox by multiple runs in Game 1 today.  The Astros are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall with 16 of those wins coming by two runs or more.  They should have no problem winning by multiple runs in Game 1 of this doubleheader Tuesday. 

The Astros and Zack Greinke both are rejuvenated after trading for him before the deadline.  Greinke is 11-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 13 starts. 

Dylan Cease is overmatched here.  He is 2-4 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in six starts this season despite facing a pretty weak slate of lineups in the Tigers (twice), Royals, Rays, Mets and Twins.  He gave up 5 runs in 5 innings to the Twins, which is the best lineup he faced.  And this will be his toughest test yet against an Astros lineup that has scored 7 or more runs in seven of their last nine games overall. 

Houston is 30-5 in road games after batting .333 or better over a three-game span over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Astros are 31-6 in road games vs. teams that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  The White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line in Game 1 Tuesday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+105) 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the worst teams in baseball right now.  They are 4-23 in their last 27 games overall and have lost 17 of those games by two runs or more.  The Cardinals have won each of the first two games of this series by multiple runs and I think they complete the series sweep in the same fashion today. 

Miles Mikolas has been dominant at home this season, going 5-5 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.977 WHIP In 11 starts.  Mikolas has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in nine career starts against Pittsburgh.  He is 2-1 with a 2.05 WHIP in his last three starts against the Pirates this season. 

Steven Brault has a 3.35 ERA despite a 1.469 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start, so the Cardinals should get into their bullpen early.  Brault has never beaten the Cardinals, posting an 8.02 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He hallowed 6 runs and 11 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his only start against the Cardinals this season. 

Mikolas is 16-4 in day games over the last two season with the Cardinals winning by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Brault’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 44-20 in its last 64 home meetings with Pittsburgh, and 22-8 in the last 30 meetings overall.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* Cowboys/49ers NFLX ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -4 

No Analysis for Preseason. 

15* Nationals/Mets NL East No-Brainer on New York -118

The New York Mets are the hottest team in baseball.  They are 14-1 in their last 15 games overall and closing in hard on a wild card spot in the National League.  They are feeling like they can’t lose right now, especially after coming back from a 6-3 deficit in the bottom of the 9th to win in walk off fashion last night. 

New York starter Noah Syndergaard has really turned it on lately.  He is 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 7 earned runs in 35 1/3 innings.  He has given up just 4 earned runs in 14 innings for a 2.57 ERA in his last two starts against the Nationals this season as well. 

Patrick Corbin has been great at home for the Nationals, but it has been a different story on the road.  Corbin is 3-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  Corbin hasn’t fared very well against the Mets either, going 2-5 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 career starts against them. 

The Mets are 9-0 in their last nine games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  New York is 7-2 in Syndergaard’s last nine starts.  The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.  New York is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the Mets Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-134) 

The Atlanta Braves are raking right now having scored a combined 33 runs in their last four games overall.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against the Miami Marlins and easily win this game by two runs or more to cover the run line for us. 

Ace Mike Soroka gets the ball for the Braves.  He is 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 6-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Soroka has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Sandy Alcantara is 4-10 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 22 starts for the Marlins, including 0-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in his last three.  He gave up 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 innings in his only start against the Braves back in April. 

Soroka is 11-0 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse over the last two seasons with the Braves winning by 4.0 runs per game in this spot.  Soroka is also 10-0 vs. a team with a losing record this season with the Braves winning by 4.1 runs per game.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -136 

The St. Louis Cardinals were tied for first place in the NL Central just a week ago.  But they’ve lost five straight since during a very tough five-game road trip at Oakland and at the LA Dodgers.  Now they’re back home and highly motivated for a win Friday night. 

Fortunately, the Cardinals get to face Chris Archer and the hapless Pirates, who have gone 4-21 in their last 25 games overall.  Archer is 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 7.14 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in nine road starts. 

Dakota Hudson has held his own for the Cardinals this season, going 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA in 22 starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 10 starts. 

Hudson is 8-0 with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  St. Louis is 8-0 in Hudson’s last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Archer’s last six starts.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing St. Louis tonight.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

15* NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Saints -2.5 

No Analysis in the Preseason. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-150) 

The Houston Astros are unstoppable right now.  They are feeling good after trading for Zack Greinke and are now the World Series favorites.  They are playing like it, going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while winning all nine games by at least two runs. 

That’s why I’ll take them on the Run Line today instead of laying -230 with Wade Miley on the mound.  Miley is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 23 starts this season, including 2-0 with a. 1.89 ERA in his last three starts.  Miley is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Orioles, pitching 12 shutout innings. 

Dylan Bundy is 5-11 with a 5.11 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA in 11 home starts.  Bundy is 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA in four career starts against Houston.  He’ll be up against a hot Houston lineup that has scored at least 7 runs in five of their last six games overall coming in. 

Bundy is 1-18 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are losing by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Miley is 12-1 as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Houston is 21-5 in its last 26 games following an off day.  The Astros are 22-5 in the last 27 meetings.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

25* AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Royals -133 

The Detroit Tigers won yesterday in walk off fashion.  They haven’t won two games in a row since winning sthree straight from May 28-31.  The Tigers are now 0-12 in their last 12 games following a win.  We’ll gladly fade them tonight considering they are starting the worst pitcher in baseball. 

Edwin Jackson keeps coming back from the grave.  He was in Toronto earlier this season and went 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA and 2.238 WHIP in five starts, giving up 26 earned runs, 8 homers and 44 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Somehow, the Tigers managed to pick him up after that.  Jackson is 3-5 with a 5.72 ERA in eight career starts against Kansas City. 

Brad Keller has been the best starter for the Royals this season.  He is 7-11 with a 3.95 ERA in 24 starts, including 1-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts against the Twins, Blue Jays and Braves, so he has fared well recently against some great lineups.  Keller is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in four career starts against Detroit as well. 

Detroit is 1-16 as a home dog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Tigers are 0-11 after scoring 8 runs or more this season.  Jackson is 2-15 at home with a total of 10 to 10.5 in his career.  Bet the Royals Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +115 

The New York Mets are the hottest team in baseball.  They are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 0.5 games of the second wild card spot in the National League.  Now they get to play the Nationals, who own the first wild card spot currently. 

Somehow, the Mets are getting no respect here as home underdogs with Marcus Stroman on the mound.  Stroman has posted a 3.07 ERA in 22 starts this season, which is impressive considering he pitched in the brutal AL East before getting traded to New York. 

Stephen Strasburg is getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  He is 14-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 23 starts, but he’s coming off a start in which he allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings to the Diamondbacks.  He is shaken and vulnerable right now. 

The Mets are 8-0 in their last eight home games.  New York is 4-0 in its last four meetings with Washington.  Take the Mets Friday. 

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego Padres -104 

The San Diego Padres are showing great value at basically even money at home tonight.  They face a Colorado Rockies team that is 8-23 in their last 31 games overall, including 5-16 in their last 21 road games. 

San Diego starter Eric Lauer is 3-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in nine home starts this season as he has been much more effective at home than on the road.  He pitched 5 innings without allowing a single earned run and only two base runners in a 3-2 victory over the Rockies in his only career home start against them. 

Jon Gray has actually been better at Coors Field this season than on the road.  Gray is 5-5 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  In his last two starts against the Padres this season, Gray has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 hits in 12 innings for a 5.25 ERA. 

The Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Padres are 4-1 in Lauer’s last five home starts.  Bet the Padres Thursday. 

20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts -2 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -132 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall while scoring a combined 33 runs in their three victories.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against Jason Vargas and the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. 

Vargas is 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.  Vargas has never been able to figure out the Diamondbacks, going 2-3 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six career starts against them. 

The Diamondbacks traded for Zac Gallen, who was one of the top prospects for the Marlins.  Gallen is having a great season, going 1-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in seven starts with 43 K’s in 36 1/3 innings.  He has a 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

Philadelphia is 12-34 in road games vs. NL West opponents over the last three seasons.  The Phillies are 3-17 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  Arizona is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings, including 6-2 in the last eight home meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +122 

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a win today against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They have lost four straight and certainly do not want to get swept in this series.  They have the edge on the mound and should not be underdogs as a result. 

Jack Flaherty is on a tear, going 1-1 with a 1.15 ERA in his last five starts.  Few teams have had as much success against the Dodgers as Flaherty.  Indeed, he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles. 

Dustin May is making a lot of headlines for his big red hair and ‘Gingergaard’ nickname.  But he wasn’t very effective in his first start against the Padres, giving up 4 runs and 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings.  He took the loss as a -160 favorite, and he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers again today. 

The Cardinals are 39-26 (+13.9 units) with a line of +125 to -125 this season.  St. Louis is 40-16 in its last 56 games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Flaherty’s last five starts on 5 days’ rest.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Twins +107 

The Minnesota Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and hitting the cover off the ball.  They should not be home underdogs to Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves this afternoon.  We’ll take the value and side with the Twins in this one. 

Fried is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for his 12-4 record, including his 7-1 road record.  But he has simply been the beneficiary of good run support as he has a 4.13 ERA on the season, and a 4.53 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 11 road starts. 

Martin Perez is 7-4 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 11 home starts.  It’s worth noting the Twins are feasting on left-handed starters like Fried this season, hitting .291 and scoring 6.5 runs per game off them. 

The Braves are 14-31 in their last 45 interleague games against a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 7-1 in Perez’s last eight starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Minnesota is 36-15 in its last 51 games off a loss.  They will bounce back in a big way motivated from behind down 11-0 to the Braves yesterday.  Roll with the Twins Wednesday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Twins -143 

The Minnesota Twins have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Atlanta Braves.  They should be closer to -200 favorites as a result.  We’ll gladly lay less than -150 to back the Twins at home tonight.  They are hot right now having gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall. 

The Twins give the ball to ace Jose Berrios tonight.  He is 10-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 22 starts, 5-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in nine home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last three starts overall. 

Mike Foltynewicz is 2-5 with a 6.37 EAR and 1.416 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is making his first start back from injury since June 22nd.  He’ll surely be on a pitch count tonight.  Foltynewicz has posted a 6.97 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota. 

Minnesota is 40-12 in its last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or greater.  The Twins are 25-9 in Berrios’ last 34 home starts.  The Braves are 3-10 in Foltynewicz’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Twins Tuesday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -135 

The New York Mets are surging now.  They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall and are closing in on the wild card.  They are motivated after management didn’t sell at the deadline.  Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 4-16 in their last 20 games overall and just aren’t motivated at all right now. 

Noah Syndergaard was the big name that was in trade talks for the Mets.  Well, he stayed put, and he has delivered a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts for the Mets.  Syndergaard is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in three career starts against the Pirates as well. 

Joe Musgrove is 8-9 with a 4.45 ERA in 22 starts for the Pirates, including 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 home starts.  He’ll be facing a hot Mets lineup that has scored 4 or more runs in six straight and eight of their last nine overall. 

The Mets are 5-0 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.  The Pirates are 0-6 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in its last seven home games.  We’ll back the more motivated team with the better starter today.  Bet the Mets Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Dodgers UNDER 8.5 

This total seems way too high tonight in a battle between two starting pitchers who have held their own this season, especially the starter for the home team in the Dodgers.  And it will be played in a pitcher-friendly park here, so 8.5 runs is too much. 

Walker Buehler is likely to shut down the Padres.  He is 9-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.806 WHIP in nine home starts.  Buehler has owned the Padres, going 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.538 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

Cal Quantrill has held his own this season for the Padres.  He is 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Quantrill is coming off two of his best starts of the season, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants and Braves. 

The UNDER is 13-3 in Padres last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Padres last 15 road games.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Buehler’s last seven Saturday starts.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Dodgers last nine vs. NL West opponents.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +119 

The Giants are coming off back-to-back losses and will be highly motivated for a victory here against the Colorado Rockies.  In fact, the Giants haven’t lost three straight since June 18-20, a span of a month and a half.  They are as hot as anyone in baseball and will get back on track today. 

Ace Madison Bumgarner has really come to life since July.  The Giants are 6-1 in his last seven starts, in which he has gone 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs in 43 innings.  Bumgarner owns the Rockies, going 16-8 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 career starts against them. 

Jon Gray is 10-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 22 starts for the Rockies this season.  While solid, Gray has struggled against the Giants.  Indeed, Gray is 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in nine career starts against San Francisco.  He just faced the Giants at home on July 17th and allowed 6 earned runs and 14 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 8-11 loss. 

The Giants are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.  San Francisco is 7-1 in Bumgarner’s last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Giants are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall.  The Rockies are 7-20 in their last 27 games overall.  Colorado is 2-8 in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Giants Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -118 

The New York Mets had their seven-game winning streak come to an end yesterday after blowing a 3-0 lead to the Pirates.  They’ll be motivated to start a new streak here and to get back in the win column against a terrible Pirates team that is just 4-15 in their last 19 games overall. 

Marcus Stroman makes his Mets’ debut Saturday.  He posted a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts for the Blue Jays, including a 2.60 ERA in nine road starts.  That’s very impressive considering he pitched in the brutal AL East.  A switch to the National League will only work in his favor.  He pitched 8 innings without allowing a single earned run in his only career start against Pittsburgh. 

Chris Archer has been a huge disappointment for years.  That has been the case again in 2019 as Archer is 3-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Archer is also 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets.  He faced New York on July 28th in his last start and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings. 

The Mets are 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  The Pirates are 0-4 in their last four games following a win.  Pittsburgh is 0-4 in Archer’s last four starts.  New York is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the Mets Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -110 

Don’t look now but the Mets have won seven straight games to pull within four games in the wild card standings.  This team is feeling really good right now, especially after not selling at the deadline.  They have the belief that they can make the playoffs, and that’s half the battle. 

Now the Mets take on the Pirates, who are playing as poorly as anyone.  The Pirates are 3-15 in their last 18 games overall and in last place in the NL Central.  Pittsburgh starter Trevor Williams is 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in six home starts this season.  He’s 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts as well. 

Steven Matz comes in pitching as well as he has all season.  He is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those starts was a complete game shutout in a 3-0 win over these same Pirates on July 27th.  Look for him to shut down the Pirates once again tonight. 

The Mets are 6-1 in Matz’s last seven games when working on five days’ rest.  New York is 7-0 in its last seven games overall.  Pittsburgh is 1-8 in its last nine games following a loss.  The Pirates are 0-6 in their last six vs. a left-handed starter.  Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Williams’ last five starts.  New York is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Mets Friday. 

15* Broncos/Falcons HOF Game No-Brainer on Denver -2.5 

No Analysis in the Preseason. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -111 

The St. Louis Cardinals squandered a ton of runners in scoring position last night and lost 2-0 to the Cubs.  They’ll be highly motivated to bounce back and take this series from the Cubs with a Game 3 victory tonight. 

Jack Flaherty is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in 11 home starts this season with 75 K’s in 64 2/3 innings.  Flaherty comes in pitching very well with a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his last three starts with 24 K’s in 17 1/3 innings. 

Jon Lester has not been good on the road this season, going 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in nine starts away from home.  Lester has been battered in his last two starts against St. Louis, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings for a 12.00 ERA. 

St. Louis is 14-2 at home after scoring 4 runs or less in four straight games over the last three seasons.  Sooner rather than later they’ll start cashing in some of this scoring opportunities.  The Cubs are 1-5 in Lester’s last six road starts.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -122 

The Boston Red Sox come in highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays.  They certainly want to avoid the sweep against a team they are trailing in the wild card standings, and I believe they take Game 3 tonight. 

Andrew Cashner is coming off his best start since being traded to Boston, holding the Yankees to 3 runs in 6 2/3 innings in a 10-5 victory.  Cashner enjoys facing the Rays, going 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in five career starts against them.  His teams are 4-1 in those five starts. 

Brandan McCay is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Rays have recalled the rookie to make his fifth start of the season here.  This will clearly be his toughest test of the season against this potent Red Sox lineup that is scoring 5.8 runs per game. 

Boston is 20-3 at home after six or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 19-4 when revenging two straight home losses over the last three seasons.  Boston is 25-3 in its lsat 28 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Take the Red Sox Thursday. 

15* Brewers/A’s MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland -114 

The Oakland A’s are playing with a ton of confidence right now.  They have won three straight games by exactly one run and it certainly has helped bolstering their bullpen before the deadline by adding devastating lefty Jake Diekman to the mix. 

I’m shocked the A’s aren’t bigger favorites today over the Brewers considering their huge edge on the mound.  Brett Anderson continues getting it done at a high level, going 9-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in 21 starts this season. 

Shockingly, the Brewers traded for one of the worst starters in baseball in Jordan Lyles prior to the deadline.  Lyles is 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 14.61 ERA and 2.996 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 16 runs, 13 earned, and 5 homers in 8 innings in his last three starts.  He is averaging just 4.8 innings per start this season. 

Lyles is 16-49 (-25.7 units) when playing against a team with a winning record in his career.  Lyles is 0-18 (-18.1 units) in July games in his career.  Oakland is 9-2 in its last 11 home games.  The A’s are 5-0 in Anderson’s last five starts on five days’ rest.  Milwaukee is 2-9 in its last 11 Interleague road games.  The Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the A’s Wednesday. 

15* Cubs/Cardinals NL Central No-Brainer on UNDER 8.5 

Runs will be hard to come by tonight between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals in this hated rivalry.  I think we see something similar to the 2-1 final we saw yesterday between two lesser starters than we’ll see today in Darvish and Wainwright. 

Miles Mikolas takes the ball for the Cardinals tonight.  He has been awesome at home this season, going 5-4 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 10 starts.  Mikolas owns the Cubs, going 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in six career starts against them. 

Kyle Hendricks is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 19 starts for the Cubs, including 0-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hendricks owns the Cardinals as well, going 7-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.  Better yet, Hendricks is 4-0 with a. 1.45 ERA in his last four starts against the Cardinals, allowing just 5 earned runs in 31 innings. 

The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Cubs last 13 games overall.  The UNDER is 42-15-1 in Hendricks’ last 58 starts vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The UNDER is 43-17 in Hendricks’ last 60 starts overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cardinals last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Cardinals last 27 home games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Mikolas’ last seven home starts.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mikolas’ last four starts vs. Chicago.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in St. Louis.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-117) 

The Minnesota Twins should win this game by multiple runs tonight thanks to their advantage on the mound and at the plate.  They have scored 6.1 runs per game on the road this season behind one of the best offenses in baseball, and certainly the most powerful offense in the league with 206 homers compared to just 87 for Miami. 

Ace Jose Berrios gets the ball for the Twins looking to continue his stellar season.  Berrios is 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  He’ll be facing a weak Miami lineup that his hitting just .230 and scoring 3.4 runs per game against right-handed starters this year. 

Sandy Alcantara is one of the weakest starters for the Marlins.  He is 4-9 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Miami is 13-35 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  Minnesota is 38-14 in its last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Marlins are 1-9 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Miami is 1-5 in Alcantara’s last six home starts.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Wednesday. 

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland A’s -118 

The Oakland A’s should be bigger favorites at home today in Game 1 of this series against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The A’s have a massive edge on the mound tonight and it will show by game’s end. 

Chris Bassitt is 7-5 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the A’s, including 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven home starts.  He is by far the superior starter in this matchup. 

Adrian Houser is 0-4 with a 7.83 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in six starts for the Brewers, including 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in three road starts.  He is averaging just 3.8 innings per start this season and has already allowed 20 earned runs, 6 homers and 46 base runners in 23 innings pitched. 

Oakland is 10-0 vs. an NL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.750 or worse since 1997.  It is winning by 2.9 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Brewers are 27-55 in their last 82 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 2-8 in their last 10 interleague road games overall.  Bet the A’s Tuesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -136 

The Minnesota Twins feel the Indians on their heels, and now it’s time to take advantage as their schedule eases up.  They took three of four from the White Sox last series, and now they should handle their business against the Miami Marlins.   

The Twins have a big rest advantage coming into this series after having Monday off, while the Marlins concluded a four-game series with the Diamondbacks on Monday.  Their bullpen is probably taxed, and they just traded away their closer in Sergio Romo to the Twins. 

Minnesota gives the ball to Jake Odorizzi, who is having a great 2019 season.  Odorizzi is 11-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Not to mention, Odorizzi is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his last three starts against the Marlins, allowing just one earned run in 17 innings with 20 K’s. 

Miami is 13-34 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  Minnesota is 13-3 in Odorizzi’s last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Marlins are 1-4 in Gallen’s last five starts.  Take the Twins Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +119 

The San Francisco Giants are the hottest team in the National League.  They are 19-5 in their last 24 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the National League.  One of those teams they are trailing is the Phillies, so it’s important for them to handle their business in this series. 

I believe the Giants have a big edge on the mound tonight with Tyler Beede, who is really pitching well of late. Indeed, Beede is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just 8 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings.  San Francisco is 8-3 (+8.5 units) in Beede’s 11 starts this year, including 6-1 (+7.6 units) in his seven road starts. 

Drew Smyly has been a disaster all season.  The left-hander is 1-4 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.766 WHIP In 10 starts this year, including 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.885 WHIP in seven home starts. 

Smyly is 12-20 (-15.6 units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 in his career.  Beede is 7-2 (+8.5 units) as a dog of +100 or higher this season.  San Francisco is 10-0 on the road with a total of 10 or higher this season.  The Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 road games.  Roll with the Giants Tuesday. 

15* MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-127) 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 55-52 and five games back in the wild card.  They really need to handle their business against the Tigers in this series, especially after losing last series to the lowly Orioles.  The Tigers are just 12-51 in their last 63 games overall, so that shouldn’t be a problem. 

The Angles have a big edge on the mound tonight with Jaime Barria, who is 2-1 with a. 3.60 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in four starts this season.  Barria is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start agains the Tigers, pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in a 6-0 victory against them last season. 

Jordan Zimmerman is still in search of his first victory of the season.  Indeed, Zimmerman is 0-8 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 13 starts for the Tigers this year.  That includes 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Detroit is 3-22 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or better this season.  It is losing by 4.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 1-15 against AL West opponents this season, losing by 4.5 runs per game.  Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Monday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -123 

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be much bigger favorites against the Colorado Rockies today.  The Rockies are just 5-18 in their last 23 games overall to fall out of playoff contention.  Now they are certainly sellers with the trade deadline approaching on Wednesday. 

The Dodgers have the clear edge on the mound tonight with Kenta Maeda, who is 7-7 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.068 WHIP In 20 starts this season.  Maeda is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Rockies, which is impressive with so many starts at Coors Field. 

Jon Gray is 9-7 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 21 starts this season for the Rockies.  Gray is 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.538 WHIP In 13 career starts against the Dodgers.  Worse yet, Gray is 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 19 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings. 

The Dodgers are 50-23 in their last 73 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rockies are 0-8 in their last eight vs. NL West opponents.  Los Angeles is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings.  Take the Dodgers Monday. 

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -125 

The Kansas City Royals are playing some of their best baseball of the season.  They are 10-6 in their last 16 games overall.  They have a huge edge on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites over the lowly Toronto Blue Jays because of it. 

Outside of Marcus Stroman, the Blue Jays’ rotation is awful.  And they just traded away Stroman to the Mets yesterday.  Thomas Pannone gets the ball tonight, and he is 0-3 with a monstrous 14.47 ERA and 2.358 WHIP in three starts this season, giving up 15 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. 

Brad Keller is quietly having a great season for the Royals.  He has been especially good at home, going 4-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in eight starts.  Keller is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  He has won both of his career starts against Toronto, including allowing just one run in 7 innings in a 3-1 victory in his lone home start against them. 

The Royals are 5-0 in Keller’s last five starts.  Kansas City is 7-1 in Keller’s last eight home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven when its opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 26-53 in their last 79 games overall.  Bet the Royals Monday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -140 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound today over the Miami Marlins.  I also like the fact that the Diamondbacks are fighting for a wild card berth, while the Marlins are well out of contention. 

Robbie Ray is an elite talent who is 9-6 with a 3.95 ERA in 22 starts this season for the Diamondbacks.  He has 162 K’s in 123 innings with absolutely filthy stuff.  And Ray is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Marlins, pitching 13 2/3 shutout innings. 

Eliser Hernandez is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts for Miami, including 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA in his last three starts.  Hernandez is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona. 

Ray is 14-3 in road games vs. an NL team with an OBP of .315 or worse over the last three seasons.  Miami is 12-34 as a dog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Ray’s last four starts.  The Marlins are 2-8 in Hernandez’s last 10 starts.  Arizona is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -128

The New York Mets continue to fight as they are 8-4 in their last 12 games overall.  Three of those losses came to the red hot San Francisco Giants, and all three by one run in walk-off losses in extra innings.  Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 2-12 in their last 14 games and have lost six straight coming in.  They seem to have given up. 

Steven Matz has been at his best at home this season for the Mets.  Indeed, Matz is 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in seven home starts this year.  He allowed just 3 earned runs and 6 base runners in 7 innings in a 4-3 victory in his only career home start against the Pirates, which came last season. 

Trevor Williams is 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Pirates.  He has been terrible of late, going 1-2 with an 8.13 ERA in his last five starts while allowing a whopping 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 27 2/3 innings. 

The Pirates are 0-7 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Pittsburgh is 7-19 in its last 22 road games.  New York is 20-8 in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven Saturday games.  New York is 7-2 in Matz’s last nine home starts.  Bet the Mets Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +131 

The San Francisco Giants are the hottest team in baseball.  They have gone 17-4 in their last 21 games overall to get back into the wild card race in the National League.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here Friday night. 

The Giants have a huge scheduling advantage here.  They had yesterday off, while the Padres concluded their series in New York against the Mets last night.  That means they had to fly all the way cross country to San Diego, which is always an adjustment.  The Giants will be rested while the Padres clearly will not be. 

Jeff Samardzija is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.932 WHP in 10 career appearances at Petco Park with nine of them being startes.  He is also 2-0 with a 2.59 ERA in his last five outings against the Padres.  In two starts at San Diego in 2019, Samardzija has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings for a 1.38 ERA. 

Joey Lucchesi is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants this season, allowing 9 earned runs in 10 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in his last three starts overall coming in. 

The Giants are 8-0 in their last eight vs. NL West opponents.  San Francisco is 4-0 in Samardzija’s last four road starts.  The Padres are 0-7 in their last seven home games.  San Diego is 0-6 in its last six during Game 1 of a series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing San Francisco.  Roll with the Giants Friday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105) 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are right in the thick of the wild card race.  They need to handle their business against the lowly Miami Marlins in this four-game series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight. 

The Diamondbacks have a huge edge on the mound here with ace Zack Greinke, who is 10-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Greinke has never lost to the Marlins, going 7-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 career starts against them, and his teams are a perfect 11-0 in those starts. 

The Marlins do have some nice young talent in their rotation, but Sandy Alcantara isn’t one of them.  He is 4-9 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Greinke is 17-3 vs. NL teams that score 4 or fewer runs per game over the last two seasons, and the Diamondbacks are winning by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Friday.