|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-29-21||Iowa v. Virginia -1.5||75-74||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are overvalued right now after a 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season against an extremely soft schedule. They have played the 355th-ranked schedule in the country with all six games at home. Now they hit the road for the first time this season at Virginia and this is a massive step up in competition.
Virginia is 5-2 this season against a much tougher schedule. Obviously the loss to Navy in the opener was a bad loss, but the other came against Houston on the road, and Houston is one of the best teams in the country.
The Cavaliers have since rebounded nicely with four straight blowout victories all by 10 points or more, including a 10-point win over Georgia and an upset win over Providence by 18. They are the more battle-tested team and will be ready for a game against a team that caliber of Iowa.
Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following four straight wins by 10 points or more. The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games. Take Virginia Monday.
|11-28-21||Pistons +11.5 v. Lakers||Top||106-110||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Pistons/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +11.5
I like the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight. They will be out for revenge from their 116-121 loss to the Lakers on November 21st exactly one week ago today. That was a heated game that led to the suspension of LeBron James.
The Pistons have played a brutal schedule of late during their five-game losing streak, which has them undervalued. They lost by 3 to the Warriors, by 5 to the Lakers, by 8 to the Heat, by 21 to the Bucks and by 11 to the Clippers. So they stayed within 11 of four of those five teams, and they can stay within 11 of the Lakers tonight.
Los Angeles has been overvalued all season, especially when James has played, and he is questionable to play tonight. They are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their lone wins came by 5 over the Pistons and in overtime against the Pacers. In fact, the Lakers haven't won any of their last 15 games by more than 11 points, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.
Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following four or more consecutive losses. Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor shooting teams that make 43% of their shots or worse. The Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Pistons Sunday.
|11-28-21||Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5||101-128||Loss||-110||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER 223.5
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings have some key injuries right now that are going to keep this game UNDER the total. The Grizzlies are without JA Morant, so they are going to have to slow it down today and won't be nearly as effective on offense without him.
The Kings will be without both Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes and possibly Maurice Harkless. I think this number is inflated today due to the Kings winning a 141-137 (OT) triple-overtime thriller against the Lakers last time out. That game was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points.
The Grizzlies lost Morant early in the game against the Hawks last time out and went on to manage just 100 points on 40.7% shooting. Their offense runs through Morant, and they are going to be lost without him. But they will try and make up for it on the defensive end.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) a losing team (40% to 49%) playing another losing team (25% to 40%) in Sunday games are 26-6 (81.2%) since 1996. The UNDER is 8-0 in Kings last eight Sunday games. The UNDER is 21-9 in Grizzlies last 30 Sunday games. The UNDER is 20-9 in the last 29 meetings, including 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-28-21||Vikings v. 49ers -3||Top||26-34||Win||100||97 h 10 m||Show|
20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3
The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals. They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards. Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards. Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.
But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record. Their numbers are elite. They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now. And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.
Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers. The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season. And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings. They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers. And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage. Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast. There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here.
Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more. I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-28-21||Chargers v. Broncos +3||13-28||Win||100||41 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3
Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog. Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback. And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch. They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company. It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage.
The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less. That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory. I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football.
The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession. They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.
Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week. Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the Broncos Sunday.
|11-28-21||Dayton v. Belmont -2.5||63-61||Loss||-110||5 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont -2.5
The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year. Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation. The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team. They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.
The Bruins are off to a 5-2 start this season against a brutal schedule. The losses came to Ohio and LSU, and they have solid wins over Furman, Drake and Iona. I think their depth will play a big factor here playing in the championship game of the ESPN Events Invitational playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
This is a terrible spot for Dayton. They will have a letdown after their shocking 74-73 win as 16-point dogs against Kansas last round. This is a Dayton team that was just 2-3 coming into that game with upset losses to UMass-Lowell 58-59 as 17.5-point favorites, Lipscomb 59-78 as 9-point favorites and Austin Peay 81-87 as 14-point favorites. They aren't that good, and we are getting Belmont at a discount due to that Kansas upset.
The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after committing eight or fewer turnovers in their previous game. The Flyers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Roll with Belmont Sunday.
|11-28-21||Panthers v. Dolphins +2.5||Top||10-33||Win||100||94 h 45 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5
The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.
The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. And last week they beat the Jets 24-17.
Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score. He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.
Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500. This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season.
The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return. Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites. Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm. We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers.
Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite. The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-28-21||Bucs v. Colts +3||Top||38-31||Loss||-103||38 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3
The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee. Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games. And the Colts have a great defense and running game. They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now.
That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor. They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season. And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up.
I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either. The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season. Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles. They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10. This might be their toughest road test of the season.
Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game. They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning. And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night.
The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|11-28-21||Eagles v. Giants +4||7-13||Win||100||38 h 53 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints. And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football. That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time.
The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games. They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home. They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday.
The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|11-27-21||Heat -1.5 v. Bulls||107-104||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
15* Heat/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami -1.5
This is a tough spot for the Chicago Bulls. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after having to fly back from Orlando after a win against the short-handed Magic last night. It will also be the 9th game in 14 days for the Bulls. This team simply doesn't have much left in the tank.
Now they have to face a rested, motivated Miami Heat team that comes in on two days' rest and off an upset loss to the Timberwolves. I don't think the Bulls will be able to match the Heat's energy or intensity in this game tonight.
The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Miami is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games playing on two days' rest. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Chicago. Take the Heat Saturday.
|11-27-21||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13.5||31-14||Loss||-105||69 h 58 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +13.5
Syracuse is 5-6 this season and needs one more win to get bowl eligible. It's clear we will get their 'A' game Saturday as they will be max motivated to get to a bowl. It will be a night game and a tremendous atmosphere with home-field advantage worth more than on any other normal week.
I question how motivated Pittsburgh will be for this one. In fact, I expect something less than their 'A' game for sure, which is going to make it hard for them to win this game by two touchdowns or more to beat us.
The Panthers just clinched the Coastal Division title with their 48-38 win over Virginia last week. They will be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week, and they won't be fully focused on Syracuse. They will be more worried about trying to keep everyone healthy for next week to try and win the ACC title.
Syracuse is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Their three home losses this season were all close by 3 to Clemson, by 3 to Wake Forest and by 10 to Rutgers.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Syracuse) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Syracuse Saturday.
|11-27-21||Cal-Irvine v. Santa Clara -3.5||Top||69-64||Loss||-109||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Santa Clara -3.5
Herb Sendek has a very good Santa Clara team this season. The Broncos are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season against a brutal schedule. They beat Stanford by 16 as 3-point dogs, Nevada by 22 as 1.5-point dogs, TCU by 19 as 3.5-point dogs and Cal Poly by 30 as 14.5-point favorites. Their lone loss came to Fresno State last time out, and I think they are undervalued off that defeat.
UC-Irvine is a solid team at 3-1 this season. But they lost to the best team they faced in New Mexico State by 11 as 5.5-point dogs. It was also their only road game this season. And I don't see them hanging with this veteran, talented Santa Clara squad on the road tonight.
Irvine is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after a win by 10 points or more. Irvine is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after covering two of its last three ATS. The Anteaters are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. The Broncos are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Santa Clara Saturday.
|11-27-21||Wolves v. 76ers -4.5||Top||121-120||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5
The Philadelphia 76ers get Joel Embiid back from COVID tonight. They come in highly motivated for a victory after struggling without him, going 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. This after a solid 8-2 start this season with him on board for most of those games.
The schedule has done the 76ers no favors without Embiid, either. They have played six straight road games coming in. But now they are back home where they have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the past few seasons. And they are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.
While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the 76ers, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But they are in a tough spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days after a shootout loss in Charlotte last night. They won't be able to match Philadelphia's energy and intensity tonight.
The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
|11-27-21||Tulsa +6.5 v. SMU||Top||34-31||Win||100||65 h 29 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +6.5
Tulsa has clawed its way back to 5-6 by winning four of its last six games to get within one more victory of bowl eligibility. The two losses came by 3 to Navy and by 8 to Cincinnati on the road in a game they nearly won outright. They will capitalize on this opportunity to make a bowl by winning this game outright at SMU Saturday.
I question the motivation of the Mustangs. They won't be going to the AAC Title game. They are coming off a 14-48 loss to Cincinnati that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. They were outgained 199 to 544 by the Bearcats. They have now gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall for a lackluster finish. I see no reason they will want to win this game Saturday, either.
Tulsa is the better team despite having the worse record in my opinion. They have played the tougher schedule and are outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play. SMU has played the weaker schedule and is outgaining teams by 53 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.
SMU was without leading receiver Danny Gray last week and his 49 catches for 803 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He's questionable to return this week and chances are the Mustangs are going to sit him considering this game isn't that important.
And I just think this SMU offense is overrated, managing 355 yards against Houston, 323 yards against Memphis and 199 yards against Cincinnati in three of their last four games. Their defense is poor too giving up 419.1 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Tulsa allows 378.1 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season to compare.
Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. SMU is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 home games after getting outgained by 225 or more yards last game. The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game. Don't hesitate to buy this to +7 while also sprinkling that money line. Bet Tulsa Saturday.
|11-27-21||Wisconsin v. Minnesota +7||13-23||Win||100||65 h 28 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
Minnesota and Wisconsin match up very well. They are two physical teams that run the football and rely on defense. That is evident by this very low 39-point total. So getting 7 points in what is expected to be a defensive battle is a very nice value here with the Gophers at home Saturday.
Minnesota just outgained Indiana by 173 yards in a 35-14 road win and outgained Iowa by 132 yards in a losing effort on the road in a game they deserved to win the week prior. In fact, the Gophers have now outgained six straight Big Ten opponents coming into this game. They are playing well enough to knock off Wisconsin, and stay within a score of them at the very least.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Badgers off seven consecutive victories. But it's worth noting they were outgained by Nebraska by 54 yards last week in a fortunate 35-28 victory that kept their title hopes alive. They should be favored in this game, but by 3 and not 7 points in my opinion.
Last year, Minnesota only lost 17-20 (OT) as a 10.5-point road dog at Wisconsin. The Gophers outgained the Badgers in that game. They get them at home this time around and will be revenge-minded.
Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven eight games as underdogs. The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it committed zero turnovers. Bet Minnesota Saturday.
|11-27-21||Arizona +20.5 v. Arizona State||15-38||Loss||-110||65 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona +20.5
It's a terrible spot for Arizona State this week. They just lost out on their chance to win the Pac-12 title with their 10-24 road loss as 3-point favorites at Oregon State last week. And now they won't be that motivated to face a 1-10 Arizona team this week. Not only do they have to win, they have to win by three touchdowns or more to beat us.
Arizona State managed just 10 points and 266 total yards against a bad Oregon State defense last week. Injuries are mounting up on offense for the Sun Devils with two receivers and two tight ends out. QB Jayden Daniels is not playing well with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and his job will be even tougher this week.
The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-10 SU this season. But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch. They will be max motivated playing their biggest rivals here to close out the season as this game means more to them than it does the Sun Devils.
Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs. And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference. If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.
In fact, the Wildcats haven't been outgained by more than 139 yards in any of their last nine games. In their last nine games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 12.2 yards per game on average. They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.
Arizona State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Take Arizona Saturday.
|11-27-21||Vanderbilt +32.5 v. Tennessee||Top||21-45||Win||100||73 h 35 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +32.5
Tennessee just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a win over South Alabama to get their 6th victory of the season. I don't see them being that motivated to face Vanderbilt this weekend. And not only are they being asked to win, they are 32.5-point favorites at that.
At 2-9 on the season, this game means a lot more to Vanderbilt as it will be their final game of the season against their rivals. And that record has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three straight covers.
They only lost to South Carolina by 1 as 19-point underdogs. They only lost to Missouri by 9 as 16.5-point underdogs. They covered as 21.5-point dogs in a 17-point loss to Kentucky. And last week was their most impressive performance yet. They only lost by 14 as 35.5-point dogs at Ole Miss. What was impressive about it was that they were only outgained by 16 yards by the Rebels.
Their offense came to life under backup quarterback Mike Wright. He led the Commodores to 454 total yards against a very good Ole Miss defense. Wright threw for 241 yards, but it's his dual-threat ability that makes this Vanderbilt offense better. He also rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in that Ole Miss game. And I think he can do enough to keep Vanderbilt within the number here against this mediocre Tennessee defense.
Vanderbilt is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games following a road loss. The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Volunteers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win by more than 20 points. Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Volunteers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after covering the spread in their previous game.
Tennessee hasn't won any of its last 17 meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 29 points. That makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 32.5-point spread. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.
|11-27-21||Oregon State +7 v. Oregon||Top||29-38||Loss||-106||65 h 59 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +7
The Oregon Ducks suffered their dream crusher loss last week in a 38-7 setback at Utah. Now they know they won't be going to the four-team playoff when they were in control of their own destiny if they won out having that head-to-head victory over Ohio State. But none of that matters now.
I think the Ducks suffer a hangover from that defeat. Now they face an upstart Oregon State Beavers team that is still alive to win the Pac-12 North. The Beavers will be the more focused, motivated team here and I think we are getting tremendous value with them catching 7 points against the Ducks.
Oregon State is 7-4 this season with all four losses by 14 points or less. They have been competitive in every game. They are coming off a 24-10 win over Arizona State as 3-point underdogs. And I think they have what it takes to hang with this Oregon team that gave up 208 rushing yards to Utah last week.
The Beavers should get their ground game going on offense as they do every week. They average 230 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry this season. Their defense has been solid as well, allowing 24.8 points per game and 377.0 yards per game, numbers very comparable to Oregon on both sides of the ball.
Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Eugene. Take Oregon State Saturday.
|11-27-21||Penn State -1 v. Michigan State||Top||27-30||Loss||-110||65 h 59 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -1
Michigan State suffered its dream crusher loss to Ohio State last week in a 56-7 blowout defeat. Now the Spartans know they won't be making the four-team playoff or the Big Ten Championship Game. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat now that all of their dreams are gone.
Penn State has put the James Franklin rumors behind them as he just signed a contract extension. I think we get a focused effort from the Nittany Lions, and the fact of the matter is they are the better team in this contest. The numbers agree.
Penn State is averaging 381.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 333.7 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 48 yards per game. Michigan State is averaging 429.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 463.4 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by over 34 yards per game. The Spartans are a fraudulent 9-2 this season, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.
These teams have five common opponents this season. Penn State is outgaining those five teams by 65.4 yards per game, while Michigan State is getting outgained by 86.2 yards per game by those same five opponents. This shows that Penn State is the better team and it's not really even close.
The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Penn State is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|11-27-21||Northern Iowa +10 v. St Bonaventure||90-80||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +10
Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. But they had some bad losses early when they were injured. Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas last time out as 12.5-point dogs.
The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season. But now that works in our favor here because the Panthers are catching more points than they should be against St. Bonaventure. They have also had a ton of time to get ready for this game and get even healthier with that Arkansas contest being their last game on November 17th.
While it's a great time to 'buy low' on Northern Iowa, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on St. Bonaventure after opening 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. The Bonnies just played a big tournament and beat Boise State (by 6), Clemson (by 3) and Marquette to win the title. This is now a letdown spot for them as they return home to face 1-3 Northern Iowa.
The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or lower. Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.
|11-27-21||Louisiana Tech v. Rice +4||31-35||Win||100||62 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +4
Both of these teams are 3-8 this season, but I like the way that Rice has played to finish the season much more than that of Louisiana Tech. And I think knowing we will get the 'A' game out of rice and less than that from Louisiana Tech will lead to an upset victory for the Owls at home here Saturday.
Rice upset UAB 30-24 as a 23.5-point road underdog. They went on to lose to North Texas in OT despite outgaining them by 53 yards. Then they lost at Charlotte in OT despite outgaining them by 119 yards. They were only outgained by Western Kentucky by 83 yards in a 21-point loss that was much closer than the final score. And WKU is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, same with UAB. And last week they lost by 10 at UTEP, another solid 7-4 bowl team.
Louisiana Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming against Charlotte in a game it was outgained by 44 yards. The Bulldogs lost outright to a terrible Southern Miss team by 16 as 15.5-point favorites last week, which is all you need to know about how they are currently playing and their mental state to close the season. They have been outgained in five of their last six games overall as well. This team is used to going to bowl games under Skip Holtz, and with that off the table they have struggled to find motivation down the stretch.
The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games games following a loss. Rice is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less. Roll with Rice Saturday.
|11-27-21||Florida State +3 v. Florida||21-24||Push||0||61 h 28 m||Show|
15* Florida State/Florida ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +3
Mike Norvell has done a great job of keeping this Florida State team together this season after an 0-4 start. The Seminoles have gone 5-2 since with their only losses to Clemson and NC State. That includes upset road wins over North Carolina and Boston College, as well as an upset home win over Miami.
Now the Seminoles sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility. They definitely want it, and I know we will get their 'A' game here against their rivals in Florida. I don't think the same can be said for their opponent and I don't expect anything close to their 'A' game.
Florida is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and just fired head coach Dan Mullen. The Gators are coming off an upset loss to Missouri. They were also upset by 23 as 20.5-point favorites against South Carolina and by 7 as 12.5-point favorites against LSU. Their only win during this stretch was even a concern as they gave up 52 points as a 31.5-point favorite against Samford. At 5-6, they just want their season to be over, especially with the distractions about who their next head coach will be.
Florida is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seminoles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Take Florida State Saturday.
|11-26-21||Bucks -3 v. Nuggets||120-109||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -3
The Milwaukee Bucks are 7-0 when Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have been on the floor together this season. They have won five straight games by 7 points or more and are playing their best basketball of the season right now at their healthiest point of the season.
Now they take on an injury-ravaged Denver Nuggets team that is not playing well, going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by double-digits. They are without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic has missed the past three games with a wrist injury and is questionable to return tonight. I don't think it matters, but would obviously be a bonus if he didn't play. Roll with the Bucks Friday.
|11-26-21||Hawks v. Grizzlies -1||Top||132-100||Loss||-107||9 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Atlanta Hawks after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games prior to Thanksgiving. They had gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their previous six games. And they won five of those six games at home.
Atlanta has been terrible on the road this season. The Hawks are 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS in their 10 road games. They face a motivated Memphis Grizzlies team that is as healthy as they have been all season now.
The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. The Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs overall. The Grizzlies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.
|11-26-21||Wolves v. Hornets OVER 224.5||115-133||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER 224.5
Two teams that are playing very well and like to get up and down square off tonight when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Timberwolves rank 11th.
Minnesota got De'Angelo Russell back healthy and he has helped spark a 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run in their last five games overall. The Timberwolves have scored at least 107 points in all five games and have averaged 116.6 points per game during this stretch. He is the whole key to their offense, and they play a lot faster with him at the helm. The Timberwolves will also be without their best defender in Patrick Beverly tonight, which will help the OVER.
Charlotte is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Hornets have scored at least 104 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency but just 24th in defensive efficiency this season. They are an OVER team.
The OVER went 2-0 in two meetings last season with Charlotte winning 120-114 at home for 234 combined points, and 135-012 on the road for 237 combined points. This game has all the makings of a shootout as well. Take the OVER Friday.
|11-26-21||Penn State v. LSU -8.5||63-68||Loss||-110||8 h 33 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5
LSU looks like one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 16 points or more and by an average of 34.4 points per game. That includes wins over solid mid-major programs in Liberty by 16 as 7.5-point favorites and Belmont by 30 as 6.5-point favorites.
Penn State is in rebuilding mode. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS this season. They failed to cover at home against Youngstown State, Cornell and St. Francis-NY. They also lost outright by 25 at UMass as 4-point favorites in their lone road game. This is a huge step up in class for Penn State.
Plays on neutral court teams (LSU) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 76 points per game against an average defensive team allowing 67-74 points per game, after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet LSU Friday.
|11-26-21||Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14||35-13||Loss||-108||56 h 50 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14
I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread. They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out. They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result.
The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with. They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that. And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns. This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home.
The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU. They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen. They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards. They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite. And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite.
East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season. They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football. Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston. The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State.
The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business. They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis. And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot. So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character.
Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch. Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch. The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards. They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati.
The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game. Roll with East Carolina Friday.
|11-26-21||UTEP +13.5 v. UAB||Top||25-42||Loss||-104||54 h 20 m||Show|
20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5
This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers. They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line. They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion. I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now.
Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season. The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points. They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice. Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently. And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale. They will be the more motivated team here.
UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game. They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season. That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Take UTEP Friday.
|11-26-21||Eastern Michigan +9 v. Central Michigan||Top||10-31||Loss||-105||52 h 20 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan. The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West. But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo.
Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails. They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up. I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line.
Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season. The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well. Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play. That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country.
Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season. Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs. Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points.
Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan. Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU. The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs. Bet Eastern Michigan Friday.
|11-25-21||Bills -6 v. Saints||Top||31-6||Win||100||37 h 41 m||Show|
20* Bills/Saints NBC Thursday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -6
The Buffalo Bills have responded well after bad losses this season. They want to get the taste out of their mouth from that 41-15 loss to the Colts in which they were -4 in turnovers. The good news is they don't have to wait long to do it here against the New Orleans Saints.
The Bills have four losses this season. They are 3-0 ATS following a loss. After losing to Pittsburgh in the opener, they beat Miami 35-0 on the road the next week. After losing at Tennessee, they won 26-11 at home against Miami the next week. And after losing at Jacksonville, they won 45-17 at the New York Jets the next week.
The Saints continue getting respect from oddsmakers that they don't deserve with a third-string QB. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia in which they gave up 242 rushing yards. They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons and gave up 332 passing yards.
Injuries are adding up for the Saints, and they just don't have a good enough offense to keep up with the Bills. And Jalen Hurts ran wild on the Saints last week. Now they face another mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, who should have a monster game against their defense as well. And the Bills are about as healthy as any team in the NFL at this point in the season.
Plays against underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 35-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 14 points. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|11-25-21||Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State||31-21||Win||100||36 h 57 m||Show|
15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +1.5
The Ole Miss Rebels are 9-2 this season and playing for a New Year's 6 Bowl ranked 9th in the latest playoff rankings. So anyone that questions their motivation here against a rival in Mississippi State is out of their minds. These players want this game more than any other game this season, so any concerns about Lane Kiffin possibly taking another job are unwarranted. That will show up in their bowl game if it does at all.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Mississippi State, which has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. Now the unranked Bulldogs are actually favored over the 9th-ranked Rebels. Many like to back these unranked favorites against ranked teams blindly. But this isn't the spot for it as Ole Miss is simply the better team.
The four wins during this stretch have come against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee State. They lost to the best team they faced in Arkansas. And it's worth noting Ole Miss beat Arkansas, and gave Alabama a much better game than Mississippi State, which lost 49-9 to Alabama. Ole Miss beat LSU by 14 while Mississippi State lost to LSU.
While the Rebels get a lot of hype and deservedly so for Matt Corral and the offense that averaged 517.5 yards per game, it's the improvement on defense that has made the difference for the Rebels this season. They give up just 25.4 points per game on the season. They allow 5.5 yards per play, which is the same as Mississippi State, which allows 5.5 yards per play as well but is perceived to be the better defense.
There's no question Ole Miss has the better offense. They average 36.4 points, 517.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. Mississippi State is improved offensively this year, but still far behind Ole Miss as 31.8 points, 452.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Ole Miss is outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play, while Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play. Ole Miss only averages 0.7 turnovers per game on offense, while Mississippi State gives it away 1.4 times per game. The Rebels force 1.8 turnovers per game, while the Bulldogs force 1.4 turnovers per game.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.
|11-25-21||Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51||36-33||Loss||-110||33 h 51 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51
The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury. They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon.
The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four. Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well. Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable. But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game. They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week.
The Raiders are also improved defensively this season. They give up just 352.7 yards per game. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott. They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts. Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards. They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-25-21||Auburn v. Loyola-Chicago +3||62-53||Loss||-110||5 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +3
Loyola-Chicago played the early game yesterday and got the extra time to rest and sit around and watch the Auburn/UConn game to scout both teams. That's a huge advantage. That rest advantage is even bigger now that Auburn and UConn went to double-overtime yesterday.
Indeed, UConn beat Auburn 115-109 in double-overtime in an absolute shootout. Five players played at least 32 minutes for the Tigers yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today and I'm shocked they are favored.
Auburn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Loyola-Chicago is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Take Loyola-Chicago Thursday.
|11-25-21||Connecticut v. Michigan State +2.5||60-64||Win||100||3 h 52 m||Show|
15* UConn/Michigan State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +2.5
Michigan State played the early game yesterday and got the extra time to rest and sit around and watch the Auburn/UConn game to scout both teams. That's a huge advantage. That rest advantage is even bigger now that Auburn and UConn went to double-overtime yesterday.
Indeed, UConn beat Auburn 115-109 in double-overtime in an absolute shootout. Five players played more than 30 minutes for the Huskies, including two more than 43 minutes. They won't have much left in the tank for the Spartans today.
UConn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Michigan State Thursday.
|11-24-21||George Mason v. South Dakota State -4||Top||76-80||Push||0||12 h 43 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -4
South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season. The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play. And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year. They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.
They are off to a 5-2 start this season with one loss coming to Alabama on the road. Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country. They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite, Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite and Nevada 102-75 as 2.5-point favorites cover the spread in all four games.
They did come up short yesterday against Washington as the Huskies couldn't miss, shooting 58.3% from the field. But I like the Jackrabbits to bounce back today and they are built for these tournament situation playing three games in three days due to their tremendous depth. They also play at a break-neck pace, which will really test George Mason.
George Mason has now lost three straight to James Madison, Washington and then Nevada in a 88-69 blowout yesterday. That's the same Nevada team that South Dakota State beat by 27. George Mason is not a deep team with six players averaging 21 minutes and the next-highest at 11 minutes. They brought back just one starter from last year's team.
The Patriots are 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. George Mason is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. South Dakota State is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall. The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss. South Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. The Jackrabbits are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Bet South Dakota State Wednesday.
|11-24-21||Memphis -2.5 v. Virginia Tech||69-61||Win||100||12 h 43 m||Show|
15* Memphis/VA Tech ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -2.5
The Memphis Tigers are loaded this season and off to an impressive 4-0 start while winning by an average of 22.7 points per game. Their 16-point home win over a very good Saint Louis team was very eye-opening. And they followed it up with a 12-point win over a quality Western Kentucky team. They have played the much tougher competition to this point.
Virginia Tech is overvalued after a 5-0 start against one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Hokies have seen their five wins come again Maine, Navy, Radford, St. Francis-PA and Merrimack. This is a huge step up in competition for them, and I expect them to fail.
The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Virginia Tech is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog. Take Memphis Wednesday.
|11-24-21||Hawks v. Spurs +4||124-106||Loss||-104||11 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Antonio Spurs after losing five straight games coming in against a brutal schedule. But they stayed within 4 points of the red hot Phoenix Suns last time out, and I expect them to upset the Atlanta Hawks at home tonight.
The Spurs are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. They are highly motivated for a victory to end this losing streak heading into Thanksgiving. And they face a Hawks team they have owned, going 21-2 SU in their last 23 home meetings with Atlanta.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Atlanta, which is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. But all five wins came at home. The Hawks are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS on the road this season. They are getting outscored by 10.0 points per game on the highway. Enough said. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-24-21||Nets v. Celtics +1.5||Top||123-104||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* Nets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +1.5
The Boston Celtics are surging right now in going 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three losses on the road including two by a combined 5 points. They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home during this stretch with wins over the Raptors by 16, Bucks by 9, Lakers by 22, Rockets by 18 and Thunder by 5.
Now they host a Brooklyn Nets team that is banged up. The Nets are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with narrow wins over some bad teams in Cleveland (twice) and Orlando, as well as an 18-point loss to Golden State. They are without Joe Harris and Bruce Brown, which puts way too much on Durant and Harden's shoulders.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 42 or more points in their last seven games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|11-24-21||Lakers v. Pacers -3.5||124-116||Loss||-110||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3.5
The Lakers are a tired team right now which is a big reason they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 6-point loss to the Knicks last night. It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Lakers. They haven't had two days off in a row since October 20-21.
The Indiana Pacers are flashing their potential now that they are as healthy as they have been all season. The Pacers are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Their last two games have been very impressive with a 15-point home win over New Orleans and a 32-point road win at Chicago.
The Lakers are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games with a total set of 210 to 219.5. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Los Angeles. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.
|11-23-21||Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 213.5||100-119||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Blazers TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 213.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are an OVER team now that they are healthy. They have gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with combined scores of 219 or more points in six of those seven games. Now we have a total of just 213.5 here against the Nuggets tonight.
The Nuggets are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with combined scores of 212 or more points in four of those five games. There's a decent chance they get Nikola Jokic back, who is questionable. Even if they don't they'll have to play small ball and will be an OVER team regardless.
The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 219 or more points in seven of those eight meetings. This is an OVER series, as well. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-23-21||Washington v. South Dakota State -5.5||Top||87-76||Loss||-110||11 h 54 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -5.5
South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season. The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play. And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year. They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.
They are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Alabama on the road. Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country. They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite, Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite and Nevada 102-75 as 2.5-point favorites cover the spread in all four games. They are the real deal this season.
That blowout win over Nevada yesterday means the Jackrabbits will be fresh again today. They will be taking on a rebuilding Washington team that is 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS this season. Washington barely survived in a 77-74 win over George Mason yesterday and will be tired because of it. The Huskies were also upset by both Wyoming and Northern Illinois as a 20-point home favorite earlier this season. They barely beat Northern Arizona 73-62 and Texas Southern 72-65 as well.
This will be essentially be home game for the Jackrabbits being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The Jackrabbits are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past few seasons. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Washington is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet South Dakota State Tuesday.
|11-23-21||Nebraska-Omaha +30 v. Texas Tech||40-96||Loss||-107||9 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30
Texas Tech is overvalued after a 4-0 start against a weak schedule with wins over North Florida by 15, Grambling by 26, Prairie View A&M by 35 and Incarnate Word by 22. The Red Raiders should not be laying 30 points to Nebraska-Omaha tonight.
Omaha has shown they can be competitive on the road against some quality teams. They only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs, by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs and by 21 at Montana as 12.5-point dogs. They will stay within 30 of the Red Raiders tonight.
Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following three or more consecutive wins. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Red Raiders are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall. This is a rebuilding Texas Tech team without Chris Beard, who moved on to Texas this year. Take Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.
|11-23-21||Oregon -1.5 v. St. Mary's||50-62||Loss||-113||9 h 23 m||Show|
15* Oregon/St. Mary's ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -1.5
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Oregon Ducks. They have failed to cover the spread in their last two games, including a blowout loss to BYU in which the Cougars shot lights out at 58.6% and made about every 3-pointer they looked at. That loss came after an 86-63 blowout win over SMU, so the quality of competition has been high for the Ducks this season already.
It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Saint Mary's. The Gaels are 5-0 against a very soft schedule of Prairie View A&M, Texas Southern, Southern Utah, Bellarmine and Notre Dame. They only beat Notre Dame 62-59 yesterday, and Oregon blew out Chaminade 73-49. So the Ducks will be the fresher team in this back-to-back situation. They are the better team as well and it will show.
The Ducks are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Gaels are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games as an underdog. Saint Mary's is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. Roll with Oregon Tuesday.
|11-23-21||Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois||Top||42-21||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* Western Michigan/NIU ESPNU No-Brainer on Western Michigan -3
Northern Illinois just clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game with their 33-27 (OT) win over Buffalo last week. Now this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Huskies, who won't care about winning this game and will just be looking to stay healthy going into the title game next week.
Western Michigan would love to beat this team to close out the regular season and will be the more motivated team. And I'm not so sure the Broncos aren't the better team, too. But I'm definitely playing them because of the spot, which screams letdown for the Huskies.
The numbers show the Broncos are the better team, though. Western Michigan is outgaining teams by 106.0 yards per game. They are averaging 448.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 342.5 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are clearly better than their 6-5 record would indicate.
Northern Illinois is only outgaining teams by 2.6 yards per game, averaging 439.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 436.5 yards per game on defense. They have been one of the most lucky teams in the country winning so many close games to get to 8-3 this season. Seven of their eight wins have come by one score with the lone exception being against FCS Maine.
Western Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive ATS losses. Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.
|11-23-21||Stephen F Austin v. Buffalo -4.5||79-78||Loss||-109||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Cancun Challenge ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -4.5
Buffalo is picked to win the MAC and the MAC is one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, especially at the top. Ohio upset Belmont, Akron nearly upset Ohio State losing by 1, Kent State gave Xavier a run for its money and Buffalo covered in a competitive effort against Michigan.
The Bulls returned four starters this season including three who averages at least 13 points per game in Jeenathan Williams (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Josh Mballa (15.3 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG). Williams is averaging 21.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG, Mballa 12.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG and Segu 13.7 PPG and 4.3 APG to this point during their 2-1 start.
This will be the first road game of the season for Stephen F. Austin. They are clearly rebuilding this season as evidenced from their first two games, beating LSU-Alexanderia 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63. They lost 71-83 at home to South Dakota State as 2-point dogs, and needed a huge second half to beat Middle Tennessee 87-74. Buffalo is on the same level as South Dakota State this season.
Buffalo is 10-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off a home win. The Lumberjacks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Stephen F. Austin is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Take Buffalo Tuesday.
|11-22-21||Giants +11.5 v. Bucs||Top||10-30||Loss||-116||68 h 18 m||Show|
20* Giants/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on New York +11.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning the Super Bowl last year. They are just 3-6 ATS this season. After losing 27-36 on the road to the Saints and Trevor Siemian, the Bucs had their bye week and many expected a big effort. Instead, they lost outright 19-29 to Washington as 10-point favorites.
Now the Bucs come back as 11.5-point home favorites over another NFC East team in the New York Giants. This despite the fact that the Bucs are missing several key players. They are missing three cornerbacks, and they lost their run stuffer in Vita Vea last week with an injury. He is crucial to their front seven and is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Offensively, they'll still be without Rob Gronkowki, and Antonio Brown is questionable after sitting last week.
Don't look now but the Giants are quietly playing some great football. They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Carolina 25-3 as 3-point dogs and Las Vegas 23-16 as 3-point dogs. Their lone loss, they nearly upset the Chiefs in a 17-20 defeat as 10.5-point road dogs. And now they are coming off their bye week and will be even healthier than they were last time out against the Raiders.
The Giants are a pretty easy team to figure out. Always bet them as a road underdogs. Indeed, the Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa Bay. Bruce Arians is 0-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents as the coach of Tampa Bay. Bet the Giants Monday.
|11-22-21||Thunder +12 v. Hawks||101-113||Push||0||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +12
What more do the Oklahoma City Thunder have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? They have gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have been an underdog in 15 of their 16 games this season. They continue catching too many points here as 12-point dogs to the Atlanta Hawks.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They had gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their previous six games prior to this run. And they should not be double-digit favorites here against the Thunder.
Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games following two or more consecutive road losses. Well, those road losses came to the Bucks by 7 and Celtics by 6, so they were competitive against two teams that are probably better than the Hawks.
The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Oklahoma City is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The Thunder are 23-10 ATS in the last 33 meetings, including 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Atlanta. Take the Thunder Monday.
|11-22-21||Hornets v. Wizards -3.5||Top||109-103||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5
The Washington Wizards are 11-5 SU & 10-5-1 ATS this season. They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. And now they are out for revenge from an 87-97 road loss at Charlotte on Wednesday just five days ago. They'll be motivated and they'll get the win and cover because of it.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Hornets, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They had gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games. It's just not a team I trust very much because they don't play defense.
Indeed, the Hornets are giving up 113.7 points per game while ranking 25th in defensive efficiency. Washington scored 87 points and shot just 36.7% including 8-of-42 from 3-point range against the Hornets last meeting. That's not going to happen again. And a big reason for the Wizards improvement this season is ranking 9th in defensive efficiency.
Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after a combined score of 205 points or fewer. Charlotte is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog. The Hornets are 18-44 ATS in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Washington is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games overall. The Wizards are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games playing on one days' rest. Bet the Wizards Monday.
|11-22-21||Nevada v. South Dakota State -1||Top||75-102||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -1
South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season. The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play. And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year. They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.
They are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Alabama on the road. Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country. They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite and Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite to cover the spread in all three games. They are the real deal this season.
Few teams have been more disappointing than Nevada this season. They returned almost everyone from last year, but they are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS. They lost outright to San Diego by 7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite. They lost by 22 at Santa Clara as a 1.5-point favorite. Those two results alone show how broken this team is.
This will essentially be a home game for the Jackrabbits being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota in the Crossover Classic. The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country for a couple seasons now. Take South Dakota State Monday.
|11-22-21||Hofstra +9.5 v. Richmond||68-81||Loss||-109||8 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Hofstra +9.5
Hofstra is one of the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Conference this season. They returned three starters, brought in five transfers and three freshmen who will battle for playing time. I've been impressed with how well the Pride have played in the early going against a brutal schedule.
Hofstra only lost by 8 at Houston as 18.5-point dogs, upset Duquesne by 10 as 4-point road dogs, only lost by 8 at Iona as 5.5-point dogs and lost by 2 at Maryland as 12.5-point dogs. Taking Houston and Maryland to the wire on the road is no small feat and shows this team's potential.
Now the Pride are catching 9.5-points on the road to an overrated Richmond team. The Spiders are just 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against NC Central by 10 as 26-point favorites and Georgia State by 16. They lost by 11 on a neutral as 6.5-point favorites to Utah State. They also lost on the road to Drake to sit at 2-2 this season. Now they'll be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back home from Des Moines, Iowa off that Drake loss.
Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. ad defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher. Richmond is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better. The Pride are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. The Spiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. Roll with Hofstra Monday.
|11-21-21||Raptors +10.5 v. Warriors||Top||104-119||Loss||-106||11 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +10.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden State Warriors. Bettors are paying a tax on them now after opening 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS this season. But now they are double-digit favorites over a quality Toronto Raptors team that is getting healthy and ready to give the Warriors a run for their money.
The Raptors are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 108-89 win at Sacramento as 3.5-point underdogs. Pascal Siakam is back healthy and had a monster game, scoring 32 points on 10-of-12 shooting. This team just has too much talent overall to be catching double-digits from the Warriors.
I always like fading teams in home games following a long road trip. The Warriors are coming off a four-game trip that ended with a 3-point win at Detroit. Now they are back home and a tired team, playing their 9th game in 15 days. They have six players on the injury report as they are starting to feel the fatigue. That includes Curry, Green, Porter Jr. and Iguodala, who are all questionable.
The Raptors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Raptors Sunday.
|11-21-21||Loyola Marymount v. Florida State -6.5||45-73||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Florida State Seminoles. After crushing Pennsylvania by 35, they were upset by Florida and had a hangover from that defeat in a 5-point win over Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite. Look for them to play up to their potential tonight and easily cover this short 6.5-point spread against Loyola-Marymount.
It's clearly Loyola-Marymount isn't as good as they were supposed to be coming into the season. They are 2-1 against a very soft schedule with two very concerning efforts. They lost outright to Chattanooga 64-75 as a 7point favorite and only beat Arizona Christian 74-67 in a game with no line. They did beat Arkansas-Little Rock 82-63, and now this is a huge step up in class for them.
Plays on neutral court teams as favorites or PK (Florida State) - off a home no-cover where they won SU as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 65-28 (69.9%) ATS since 1997. Roll with Florida State Sunday.
|11-21-21||Boston College +3.5 v. Rhode Island||Top||65-71||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3.5
Boston College will be out for revenge from a 49-57 road loss to Rhode Island as 4.5-point underdogs on November 17th just a few days ago. Now the Eagles come back as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral in the Sunshine Slam played in Daytona Beach, FL.
I just expect the Eagles to be the more motivated team in the rematch, and for that to carry them to an outright victory. Plus, Boston College isn't going to shoot 25% again like they did in that first meeting, and they still only lost by 8 with Rhode Island shooting 44.2%. They had 42 rebounds compared to 29 for Rhode Island and should have a big edge on the glass again. Bet Boston College Sunday.
|11-21-21||Texans +10.5 v. Titans||Top||22-13||Win||100||94 h 7 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +10.5
This is the spot the Tennessee Titans have their letdown. They have now won six straight games including five in a row against playoff teams from last year. I question how much they have left in the tank after their wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last six weeks.
This is a tired team right now too as the Titans haven't had a bye week yet and won't get one until Week 13. The injuries are piling up. They have 23 players on injured reserve. They are already without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, leaving basically just Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown as their best offensive players by far. LB's Bud Dupree, David Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans are all questionable, as is CB Greg Mabin.
The Titans were very fortunate to beat the Rams and Saints the last two weeks with their lack of offense. They beat the Rams despite just 194 total yards. They managed just 264 total yards against the Saints and had a fluky roughing the passer penalty go their way on Tannehill that wiped out an INT in the end zone and led to 7 points, which was the difference in their 23-21 victory. It also helped that the Saints missed two extra points. And the Saints should have won that game with a third-string QB in Trevor Siemian and without their best player in Alvin Kamara.
The Texans will be highly motivated for their first victory since Week 1. They are coming off their bye week and facing the division leader in the Titans, so they will give a big effort. It's clear they are still trying to win games or they wouldn't have brought back QB Tyrod Taylor. He was rusty in his first start back against the Dolphins, but he should get back to his old self off a bye. And his old self is a covering machine and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability as a dual-threat.
Both meetings last season were decided by 3 and 6 points. And in both games, the Texans had a chance to win late but fumbled going into the end zone. They have not forgotten, and they would love nothing more than to get their revenge here. I think they have an excellent chance to win outright, but at the very least they will cover this 10.5-point spread with ease.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) after six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13 are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS since 1983. This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot. We'll 'buy low' on the Texans off eight straight losses. And we'll 'sell high' on the Titans off six straight wins. It's that simple folks as we are getting max line value here. Bet the Texans Sunday.
|11-21-21||Colts +7.5 v. Bills||Top||41-15||Win||100||94 h 4 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5
The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced. Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets. Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse. The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too. The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans. They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.
The Colts have played a much tougher schedule. And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start. The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads. So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.
The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season. They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense. And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back. There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts. The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.
One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year. They actually deserved to win that game outright. They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards. They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.
The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.
I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers. They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week. The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score. Take the Colts Sunday.
|11-21-21||Dolphins -3 v. Jets||24-17||Win||100||93 h 34 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible. This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer. Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets. He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league. They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.
The offense will be a mess with him at the helm. And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson. They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.
New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game. This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL. The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.
Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory. His finger looked absolutely fine. He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt. He also scored a rushing touchdown. And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.
This Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year. They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers. And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.
Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road. The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback. There's just nothing to like about them right now.
Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season. They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record. But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule. After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in. Everything is still in front of them. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-21-21||Boise State v. Ole Miss||60-50||Loss||-110||3 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK
The Ole Miss Rebels are 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Marquette by 6. And it's clear Marquette is actually pretty good with wins over Illinois and West Virginia already this season as well. The Rebels have won their three games all by 18 points or more and will be one of the most improved teams in the country after COVID destroyed them last year.
Boise State lost a lot of talent from last year's team and is getting too much respect after having a good season. The Broncos are 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against Utah Valley State and Temple. They lost to UC-Irvine 50-58 as 2-point road favorites and St. Bonaventure 61.67 as 3.5-point dogs.
Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in its prevous game. Take Ole Miss Sunday.
|11-20-21||Nebraska-Omaha +12.5 v. Montana||47-68||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +12.5
We have an underrated Nebraska-Omaha team up against an overrated Montana team here Saturday. Omaha should not be catching double-digits in this showdown that should come right down to the wire.
Omaha only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs and by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs in its last two games coming in. Montana lost by 37 as 11.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and by 2 as 7-point favorites at North Dakota in its last two games.
Omaha is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Montana is 0-11 ATS in it last 11 Saturday games. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Montana is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite. Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.
|11-20-21||Oregon v. Utah -3||7-38||Win||100||52 h 17 m||Show|
15* Oregon/Utah ABC ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3
Utah is a one-way team for me right now. I'm either backing them or passing. Kyle Whittingham has this team playing up to its potential now after a slow start to the season. The Utes are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country. They are 4-0 at home this season with all four wins by double-digits. And this will be a night game at 7:30 EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium. That makes it one of the best atmospheres in all of college football. Not to mention the Utes would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a win, so they have a lot to play for.
I haven't been a big Oregon believer all season. They seem to just keep escaping with wins ever since that victory over Ohio State. I think their run ends here Saturday against the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion in Utah. The Utes definitely have the better quarterback. I bet Whittingham wishes he started Cameron Rising over Charlie Brewer from the start.
Rising has responded with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio. His dual-threat ability has been the key to this offense, though. Rising has rushed for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 per carry. Utah has scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games now with Rising at the helm.
Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive wins. The Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win. The Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
Plays on home teams (Utah) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that's off five or more consecutive wins are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Utah Saturday.
|11-20-21||Thunder +10 v. Celtics||105-111||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +10
The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to get the money this season because they get no respect from oddsmakers. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and catching double-digits again tonight after covering in a 7-point loss at Milwaukee as a 12.5-point dog last night.
The Celtics will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they are coming off a huge win over the rival Lakers. This is certainly a letdown spot for them now. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Celtics, so they won't have much left in the tank to beat the Thunder, let alone do it by double-digits.
Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 95 points or less last game. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Celtics are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by more than 10 points. Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. Roll with the Thunder Saturday.
|11-20-21||Vanderbilt +36.5 v. Ole Miss||17-31||Win||100||52 h 3 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +36.5
The 2-8 record for Vanderbilt has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They only lost by 1 at South Carolina as 19-point dogs, by 9 to Missouri as 16.5-point dogs and by 17 to Kentucky as 21.5-point dogs.
Now the Commodores are looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off Ole Miss. Meanwhile, the Rebels won't be up for this game at all. They are coming off their huge win over Texas A&M last week, and now they have an even bigger game on deck Thursday in the Egg Bowl against their biggest rivals in Mississippi State.
That makes this a sandwich spot. The Rebels won't be excited to face Vanderbilt, and they will be looking ahead to that game against Mississippi State. Since it's on Thanksgiving on a short week, they just want to try and go into that game healthy and fresh. Look for them to rest starters in the second half like they did against Liberty if it comes down to it. This is a tired Rebels team as it is playing for an 8th consecutive week.
Vanderbilt is the much fresher team. They had a bye prior to Kentucky last week, which allowed them to cover that number and only lose by 17. They should still be fresh for this one, which is key going up against a team like Ole Miss that plays with tempo.
The Commodores are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Ole Miss. The Commodores are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following three or more consecutive losses. Take Vanderbilt Saturday.
|11-20-21||Pelicans v. Pacers -7||94-111||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -7
The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost three straight on the road all by single-digits. In fact, they have played seven of their last eight games on the road. But they are back home now where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games with wins by 13 over the Spurs, 13 over the Knicks and 5 over the 76ers.
While both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, it's a better spot for the Pacers than it is the Pelicans. Injuries have ravaged the short-handed Pelicans this season. They are just 3-14 SU & 7-10 ATS this season because of it. They don't boast the depth that the Pacers do, and that will be a factor here.
New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game. The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on zero rest.
Plays on any team (Indiana) - off three or more consecutive road losses, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Pacers Saturday.
|11-20-21||San Jose State +29.5 v. Texas||45-79||Loss||-110||6 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +29.5
Tim Miles is a great head coach and one of the more underrated hires of the offseason. He's already turning San Jose State into a competent program this year. The Spartans are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS with three competitive games as underdogs.
After upsetting CS-Fullerton 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs, San Jose State also covered in a 14-point road loss at Stanford as 18.5-point dogs. They then nearly upset Cal Baptist in a 1-point loss as 11-point road dogs. And now they are catching 29.5 points against Texas, which is too much.
Texas came into the season with a ton of hype due to the hiring of Chris Beard from Texas Tech . But the Longhorns have fallen flat, losing by 12 to Gonzaga as 7.5-point dogs and only beating Northern Colorado by 13 as 21-point favorites in their last two games coming into this one.
Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after a win by 10 points or more. The Longhorns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games following a win. Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game. Bet San Jose State Saturday.
|11-20-21||UCLA -3 v. USC||62-33||Win||100||49 h 33 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -3
The UCLA Bruins returned from their bye and smoked Colorado 44-20 as an 18-point favorite. Now they will still be fresh and ready to take down their rivals in the USC Trojans, who don't care about this game as much as the Bruins do. UCLA wants revenge from a gut-wrenching 43-38 loss to the Trojans last year.
USC is a program in turmoil with a lame-duck interim head coach. Their play on the field has reflected it. The Trojans are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only victory came in a nail biter against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 41-34 as a 21.5-point favorite.
USC lost 16-31 on the road to Notre Dame as a 7.5-point dog. They lost 26-42 at home as a 3-point favorite against Utah. And they also lost 16-31 as a 10-point dog at Arizona State. So they lost all three games by 15 points or more and weren't competitive. I don't expect them to be competitive Saturday, either.
USC is without starting QB Kedon Slovis. Backup Jaxson Dart will get the start, and he just hasn't been as effective this season. And he won't have the services of top wideout Drake London, who has 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns this season. The next-best receiver has 41 receptions, 474 yards and one score, so the loss of London is huge.
The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. USC is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. Roll with UCLA Saturday.
|11-20-21||SMU +11.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||14-48||Loss||-110||48 h 4 m||Show|
25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on SMU +11.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are feeling the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff. They are just surviving and advancing at this point. And they are overvalued late in the year due to their perfect 10-0 record. That unbeaten record is in jeopardy this weekend against arguably the best team they have faced yet in the SMU Mustangs.
The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen. They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards. They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite. And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite last week.
SMU is looking at this game as its 'National Championship' game. The Mustangs sit at 8-2 but have a head-to-head loss to Houston, which will likely keep them out of the AAC title game. They would love nothing more than to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati.
The two losses by SMU came by 3 and 7 points this season. They are coming off a 55-28 win over UCF as a 7-point favorite, so they have momentum. And they have the offense to give Cincinnati a run for its money. No question, this is the best offense the Bearcats will have faced this season.
The Mustangs are putting up 41.6 points and 498.8 yards per game this season. Their defense has been respectable in allowing 25.9 points per game. There's a chance the Bearcats will be without leading rusher Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns this season. He missed last week's game against USF and is questionable for this one. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet SMU Saturday.
|11-20-21||Texas v. West Virginia -2.5||23-31||Win||100||69 h 51 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -2.5
There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point. The damage has already been done. They have lost five straight games coming in. They followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as a 31-point favorite against Kansas last week.
I just don't see them getting back up off the mat to take the long road trip to West Virginia. There is so much turmoil in this program right now. I think it's best we keep fading them for these last two games. And I like the spot for West Virginia, which needs to more wins to make a bowl and plays Kansas next week.
It's always a tough trip for this Big 12 teams going all the way out to West Virginia. Just ask Iowa State a few weeks ago when the Mountaineers upset them. And you know West Virginia has had this game circled after coming up just short at Texas last year in a 17-13 loss. They were driving late in the final seconds of that game to go in for the game-winning score, but the refs didn't throw an obvious pass interference penalty in the end zone that likely would have given them the win. I know because I had West Virginia in that game as they covered as 6.5-point dogs.
West Virginia's last two losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State were misleading. They held Oklahoma State to just 285 yards. They held Kansas State to just 299 yards. They still have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. And their offense should come to life like it did against Iowa State 3 weeks ago when they had 492 yards against a very good Iowa State defense.
This Texas defense is soft as butter. The Longhorns just allowed 57 points to Kansas and have now allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight. They are giving up 38.1 points per game in conference play.
West Virginia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Mountaineers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. The Mountaineers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Whether or not Texas has quit, I expect the Mountaineers to win and cover at home Saturday as I know they will show up for this game. Bet West Virginia Saturday.
|11-20-21||Michigan State +19.5 v. Ohio State||Top||7-56||Loss||-110||45 h 34 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +19.5
Michigan State finally gets its chance to earn some respect with a showdown with Ohio State this weekend. No question the Spartans feel disrespected being this big of underdogs. And I think this line is out of hand this weekend.
Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season. The Spartans are loaded with a balanced offense that averages 34.6 points per game while rushing for 198 yards per game and throwing for 252 yards per game. I just don't see Ohio State being able to slow them down enough to cover this large number.
I do expect the Spartans to hold their own defensively, too. The Buckeyes are also balanced, but they aren't going to be able to run the football with much consistency on a Michigan State defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.
We've seen Ohio State pushed by Oregon, Penn State and Nebraska, arguably the three best teams they have faced. The Buckeyes lost outright to Oregon at home and only beat both Penn State and Nebraska by 9 points each. Michigan State is in the same ballpark as those three teams if not better than them. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
|11-20-21||Kent State v. Akron +13.5||38-0||Loss||-110||45 h 33 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +13.5
This game means nothing to Kent State. The Golden Flashes play Miami Ohio next week for a trip to the MAC Championship Game win or lose. They have to beat Miami Ohio either way. So I foresee them looking ahead to that game, and likely not trying to hard to beat Akron this weekend.
Akron continues to battle even without its head coach. The Zips have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They upset Bowling Green, lost to Miami Ohio by 13 as 20-point dogs, lost to Ball State by 6 as 20-point dogs, and lost to Western Michigan by 5 as 26-point dogs. Now they are catching too many points again this weekend.
The key to Akron's resurgence has been QB Zach Gibson. He has provided a huge spark for the offense, completing 69.9% of his passes for 1,151 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. His dual-threat ability has been huge as he has been great at scrambling and finding his underrated weapons on the outside.
Gibson should continue his great play against a terrible Kent State defense that allows 36.8 points per game, 496.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. That against opposing offenses that average just 26.1 points per game, 387 yards per game and 5.5 per play. So the Golden Flashes are allowing 10.7 points per game, 110 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents have averaged on the season.
Plays against any team (Kent State) - with a horrible scoring defense that allows 35 points per game or more, after two straight games where 70 combined points or more were scored are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take Akron Saturday.
|11-19-21||Arizona +15.5 v. Washington State||Top||18-44||Loss||-110||30 h 34 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona +15.5
The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-9 SU this season. But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch. Now they have a great shot to get their 2nd win against one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington State Friday night.
Arizona State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs. And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference. If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.
In fact, the Wildcats have only been outgained by more than 85 yards just once in their last eight games overall. That was the 139 yards they were outgained by Utah, which isn't that bad. In their last eight games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 26.8 yards per game on average. They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.
This is a terrible spot for Washington State. They just played Oregon last week, and now they have the Apple Cup on deck next week against Washington. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Cougars. They won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they were Oregon, and they won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they will be Washington. I think that factor will have them winning this game by two touchdowns or less and possibly losing outright.
When you look at the numbers, these are very evenly-matched teams. Arizona is only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. Washington State is getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season. The Wildcats have a sneaky good defense that gives up just 367.3 yards per game. The Cougars give up 397.6 yards per game.
Washington State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Washington State has only been favored three times this season and one was a 1.5-point favorite in a 3-point win against Stanford. They actually lost outright as an 18-point favorite to Utah State, too. Bet Arizona Friday.
|11-19-21||Western Kentucky v. Memphis -13.5||62-74||Loss||-110||8 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -13.5
The Memphis Tigers are loaded this season and a legit contender. They just beat a very good Saint Louis team handily 90-74 as 10.5-point favorites. And now they take a big step down in competition here against Western Kentucky and should have no problem covering this 13.5-point spread at home.
Western Kentucky lost most of their studs from lsat year. The result has been a 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season. The Hilltoppers barely survived in a 79-74 home win over Alabama State as a 25.5-point favorite. That Alabama State team is now 0-5.
The Hilltoppers went on to get upset 69-73 as 3-point favorites against a rebuilding Minnesota team. Then they lost 64-75 to South Carolina as 1-point underdogs. That's also a rebounding South Carolina team. This is a huge step up in competition for the Hilltoppers tonight.
The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Memphis is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite. The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. Take Memphis Friday.
|11-19-21||Magic +12.5 v. Nets||113-115||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5
The Brooklyn Nets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. It will also be their 8th game in 13 days. This team is short-handed right now without Kyrie Irving, Paul Millsap and Joe Harris. There's just too much on Kevin Durant and James Harden's shoulders, especially given the tough rest spot.
I expect the Magic to hang around for four quarters in this one. They want revenge from a home loss to the Nets just over a week ago on November 10th. And they are the much fresher team playing just their 6th game in 12 days. They have recent upset wins over the Knicks as 11.5-point dogs and the Jazz as 11-point dogs as well, so they are starting to play better.
The Nets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Magic are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Brooklyn. Take the Magic Friday.
|11-19-21||Middle Tennessee +11 v. Stephen F Austin||74-87||Loss||-110||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Middle Tennessee +11
Middle Tennessee is off to an impressive 3-0 start this season. The Blue Raiders crushed their first two opponents by 39 and 20 points. Then they upset a very good Winthrop team 76-65 as 5.5-point underdogs. Now they will hang with Stephen F. Austin tonight.
Stephen F. Austin is rebuilding this season. They were not impressive at all in their first two games that didn't have lines. They beat LSU-Alexandria by 9 and Mary Hardin-Baylor by 13. Then they were crushed 71-83 as 2-point home underdogs to South Dakota State. So that's three straight poor performances, and they have no business laying 11 points to the Blue Raiders tonight.
Plays on underdogs (Middle Tennessee) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, a team that had a losing record last season are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Middle Tennessee Friday.
|11-19-21||Warriors v. Pistons +8||Top||105-102||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8
This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 13-point 4th quarter comeback win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. Now they have to travel to Detroit and will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.
The Pistons are the fresher team and had yesterday off following a 97-89 upset win over Indiana at home on Wednesday. They also upset Houston on the road and Toronto on the road in winning three of their last five games overall. They are playing their best basketball of the season and will be highly motivated to welcome the team with the best record in the NBA to Detroit in the Warriors. Bet the Pistons Friday.
|11-18-21||Patriots v. Falcons +7||Top||25-0||Loss||-115||29 h 21 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Falcons Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off the 45-7 victory over Cleveland last week resulting in the second-biggest blowout in the NFL. I always like fading teams coming off the big blowout like that because they are always overvalued the next week.
Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are coming off the biggest blowout loss, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week. And we are getting max line value based off of one week's results. A team is never as good or bad as they played last week. And the Falcons should not be catching 7 points at home to the Patriots Thursday night.
These short weeks always tend to favor the home teams. And you know the Falcons will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Patriots will be feeling fat and happy coming into this one. Keep in mind Atlanta just went on the road and won outright at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog the week prior to losing to Dallas. And Dallas was just down 30-0 to Denver the previous week before blowout out Atlanta.
This is just how the NFL works. You won't to fade last week's results because that's where you get optimal line value. The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -4. So we are getting a full 3 points of value here with the Patriots now at -7 based off last week's results alone.
Each of Atlanta's previous six games before Dallas were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they hadn't lost any of them by more than 6 points. I think this game is decided by one score either way. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|11-18-21||Spurs +2.5 v. Wolves||Top||90-115||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +2.5
This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight. They won't have much left in the tank for the San Antonio Spurs.
We'll get a fresh, motivated effort from the Spurs tonight coming off three straight losses and having yesterday off. It should be enough to win this game outright against the Timberwolves, who had gone 1-8 SU in their previous nine games prior to beating the Kings last night. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|11-18-21||Clippers v. Grizzlies +1||108-120||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies, who have lost three of their last four coming in. But they are fully healthy now for basically the first time all season, and it showed in their 136-102 win over the Rockets last time out. Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go against the Clippers tonight.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall against a pretty soft schedule. But the injuries are mounting up for the Clippers now. They are without Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris and Justise Winslow, and they could be without Terrance Mann, who is questionable. Take the Grizzlies Thursday.
|11-18-21||Alabama State +28 v. Iowa||82-108||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Alabama State +28
Alabama State is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS against some quality competition. They lost by 5 at Western Kentucky as 25.5-point dogs, by 19 at Vanderbilt as 25.5-point dogs, but 18 at Missouri State as 23.5-point dogs and by 8 at Iowa State as 19-point dogs.
Now Alabama State is catching a whopping 28 points to Iowa, which isn't nearly as good as they were last season. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 against some very weak competition in Longwood, Missouri-KC and NC Central. And they only beat NC Central by 17 as 29.5-point favorites last time out. I can't foresee them beating Alabama State by more than 28 points tonight. Roll with Alabama State Thursday.
|11-18-21||Ohio State -2 v. Xavier||65-71||Loss||-116||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* Ohio State/Xavier FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2
After two sub-par performances to open the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes played up to their potential in an 89-58 win as a 16-point favorite over Bowling Green last time out. They are the better of these two teams with Xavier, and that will show tonight as they get the win and cover.
Xavier hasn't looked great itself. The Musketeers only beat Niagara 63-60 as a 17-point favorite before topping Kent State 73-59 as an 8.5-point favorite. But they were in a dog fight with Kent State until the final minutes.
That 3-point win over Niagara gives these teams a common opponent. Ohio State beat Niagara by 10. Every matchup is different, but I don't see how Xavier can be trusted to score much against Ohio State considering they shot just 39% overall and 25% from 3-point range against Niagara and Kent State. Ohio State is shooting 49.4% overall and 36.1% from 3-point range.
The Buckeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Musketeers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Take Ohio State Thursday.
|11-17-21||Arkansas-Little Rock +13.5 v. Loyola Marymount||63-82||Loss||-107||11 h 15 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arkansas-Little Rock +13.5 Little Rock is off to an impressive 3-0 start this season and should not be this big of underdogs to Loyola-Marymount tonight. They won outright as a 6.5-point underdog against Southern Illinois, then went on to crush overmatched opponents in Champion Baptist 115-51 and Arkansas Baptist 91-60. This is a Little Rock team that returned three starters from last year and some key bench players who are already making big contributions. After averaging just 4.3 PPG last year, Isaiah Palermo is now averaging 18.5 PPG this year. They have six players averaging in double figures already and are playing well as a team. I don't see how Loyola-Marymount can be this big of a favorite when you see what they have done to this point. They lost outright as a 7-point home favorite to UT-Chattanooga, 64-75. Then they barely survived a 74-67 win over Arizona Christian last time out. This team is way overvalued in the early going based on what they returned from last year's 13-9 team. Roll with Arkansas-Little Rock Wednesday.
|11-17-21||Kings +2.5 v. Wolves||97-107||Loss||-108||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Sacramento Kings +2.5
It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Sacramento Kings, who are clearly a better team than the Minnesota Timberwolves and should not be underdogs here. The Kings had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games before throttling the Pistons 129-107 last time out. But three losses came by 5 points or less and against some solid competition.
Now the Kings get another step down in competition here against the Timberwolves, who are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Five of those losses came by double-digits as they have rarely even been competitive. And while the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Timberwolves will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.
The Kings rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Timberwolves rank 26th this season. So while the Timberwolves are slightly ahead in defensive efficiency, the gap on offense more than makes up for it. Minnesota just has no chemistry on the offensive end, and Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most overrated players in the league because they don't know how to use him properly. He disappears way too often.
The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games. Sacramento is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Timberwolves are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites. Take the Kings Wednesday.
|11-17-21||Northern Iowa +13 v. Arkansas||80-93||Push||0||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +13
Northern Iowa was picked to finish 2nd in the strong Missouri Valley entering the season. You can see why most liked this team as they returned everyone from last year and all five starters. But they were without a couple starters when they were upset by Nicholls State and Vermont to open the season.
Those guys returned to help the Panthers beat Dubuque 95-58 last time out. And now the Panthers are at full strength and a sleeper going into Arkansas looking to give the Razorbacks a run for them money. Northern Iowa will be looking to right some wrongs in the early going with this matchup with a Top 25 opponent.
Arkansas is due for some regression this year. The Razorbacks lost three starters and three of their top four scorers in Moses Moody (16.8 PPG), Justin Smith (13.6 PPG) and Jalen Tate (11.0 PPG) from last year's 25-7 team. It's no wonder they failed to cover against weak competition to open the season, only beating Mercer 74-61 as a 19-point favorite and Gardner Webb 86-69 as a 19.5-point favorite. Northern Iowa is better than both those teams and it's not close.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Northern Iowa) - a team that had a losing record last season, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS since 1997. Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.
|11-17-21||Lakers v. Bucks OVER 218||Top||102-109||Loss||-108||9 h 24 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 218
Two of the fastest teams square off tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Milwaukee Bucks and a shootout should be the result. The Lakers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace, while the Bucks rank 8th.
The Lakers play even faster when LeBron James is out just as he has been for a few weeks now. Russell Westbrook likes to get up and down. It has hurt the Lakers defensively as they give up 105.1 points per 100 possessions.
The Bucks have been even worse on the defensive end, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency at 106.8 points per 100 possessions allowed. But their offense gets a boost tonight with the return of Khris Middleton following a two-week absence due to COVID. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-17-21||Northern Illinois -105 v. Buffalo||Top||33-27||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
20* NIU/Buffalo ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Northern Illinois PK
Northern Illinois can clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game with a win over Buffalo tonight. They will be max motivated and not want to wait until next week against a very good Western Michigan team to clinch. They will handle their business tonight against Buffalo.
This Buffalo team has been overvalued all season based on what they did last year when they were the best team in the MAC during the regular season. But they lost their coach and many of their best players. The result has been a disappointing 4-6 season where they aren't likely to make a bowl game because they would have to win out against NIU and at Ball State to get there.
And it looks like the Bulls have packed it in in recent weeks. After getting upset 44-56 as a 13.5-point home favorite against a Bowling Green team that is getting crushed by everyone, they went on to lose 18-45 at Miami Ohio last week. I don't understand why the Bulls are getting so much respect from oddsmakers after those two performances this week, and I'll gladly take advantage and fade them.
This is a great matchup for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are second in the MAC in rushing offense at 220 yards per game. They have run the ball nearly twice as many times (459 attempts) as they have thrown (270 attempts) this season. Well, the Bulls have given up 218.3 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry in conference games this season. And while Buffalo is tops in the MAC with 33 sacks, that won't be a factor here because Northern Illinois has surrendered just 7 sacks all season and doesn't throw much. When they do, they have a dual-threat QB in Rocky Lombardi who can elude the rush.
The Huskies are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 road games. Northern Illinois is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulls are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.
|11-16-21||George Washington v. CS-Fullerton -3||59-74||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Fullerton -3
CS-Fullerton will be highly motivated for a victory after two narrow road losses to Santa Clara (77-84) and San Jose State (76-78) to open the season. Now they are home for the first time and those two losses were against two teams that I think are underrated this season.
Fullerton actually takes a step down in class here against George Washington in my opinion. The Colonials are 1-2 this season and just lost by 20 at Cal San Diego as a 1-point favorite. Their lone win came against St. Francis-PA 75-72 as a 7-point home favorite. It's a rebuilding year for GW off a 5-12 season and losing three starters from last year's team, including leading scorer Jamison Battle (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG).
I expect CS-Fullerton to be one of the most improved teams in the country and compete for a Big West title. They went just 5-9 in the Big West last year but had three losses by a combined seven points. There led the conference in scoring last year and return four starters who combined for 42.8 points per game last season, plus 6th man Dante Maddox Jr. (11.9 PPG).
Dante Maddox Jr (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Tre Maddox Jr. (11.0 PPG), Vincent Lee (15.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.5 PPG) are all back and off to solid starts with those being their season averages through two games. They added in Tennessee transfer E.J. Anosike (15.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG), who has been their best player already. And fellow newcomer Damari Milstead (10.0 PPG) is making a big impact already.
George Washington is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Colonials are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Georgia Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Titans while we still can. Roll with CS-Fullerton Tuesday.
|11-16-21||St. Louis +10.5 v. Memphis||74-90||Loss||-101||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* Saints Louis/Memphis ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on Saint Louis +10.5
I love what Travis Ford is building at Saint Louis. They went 14-7 and made the NIT last year despite a COVID-ravaged season and brought back three starters from that team. They also brought in several top transfers.
The Billikens are off to a dominant 3-0 start this season, covering as a 22-point favorite in a 96-61 win over Central Arkansas, beating Harris Stowe 127-54, and throttling Eastern Illinois 86-44 as a 21-point favorite.
Gibson Jimmerson (18.7 PPG), Yuri Collins (9.7 PPG, 9.3 APG), Francis Okoro (11.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Marten Linssen (11.7 PPG) are all off to strong starts this season and back from last year's team. Memphis transfer Jordan Nesbitt (13.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG) has fit in nicely as well.
Memphis is getting a lot of hype again this season with a Top 25 ranking and plenty of big-name recruits and talent. But Penny Hardaway has been a disappointment. And I don't know how they can be trusted to lay double-digits here against a team the quality of Saint Louis.
Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a home win where it scored 85 points or more. The Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. excellent shooting teams that make 52% or better. The Billikens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. Saint Louis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog overall. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Saint Louis Tuesday.
|11-16-21||Warriors v. Nets -3||117-99||Loss||-106||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn -3
It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden State Warriors after going 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS to open the season. Now they are only catching 3 points from the Brooklyn Nets tonight, a legit title contender. And the Warriors will be without Draymond Green, so they won't be able to defend Durant and Harden very well without him.
The Nets are quietly playing great themselves. They have gone 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with all eight wins by 6 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Durant and Harden are really clicking right now, and you can bet Durant wants to have a big game against his former team here.
The Nets won both meetings with the Warriors in blowout fashion last year. They won 125-99 at home and 134-117 on the road. I think it's more of the same here, especially since the Warriors don't have their defensive stalwart in Green. The Nets are now 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.
Brooklyn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive non-conference games. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Pacific Division opponents. The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs. Brooklyn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games. Take the Nets Tuesday.
|11-16-21||Georgia State +7.5 v. Richmond||Top||78-94||Loss||-110||8 h 2 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia State +7.5
Georgia State is picked to win the Sun Belt this season for good reason. They return all five starters from a team that went 16-6 last year. And all five starters averaged at least 10.1 points per game, so they are the definition of team basketball.
The Panthers are off to a great start winning their opener 97-37 over Brewton-Parker and 83-64 over Northeastern as a 6.5-point favorite. They have been much more impressive than Richmond, which only beat lowly NC Central 70-60 as a 26-point favorite and lost outright to Utah State 74-85 as a 6.5-point favorite. Based off those results, there's no way Richmond should be a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup.
Richmond is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Georgia State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games. The Panthers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Bet Georgia State Tuesday.
|11-16-21||Toledo v. Ohio +7||Top||35-23||Loss||-102||8 h 1 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +7
Don't look now but despite being 3-7, the Ohio Bobcats have a chance to win the MAC East. They are just one game behind both Miami Ohio and Kent State and actually hold the tiebreaker over the Redhawks. They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are flying under the radar.
Indeed, the Bobcats are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all three losses coming by 7 points or less. They are coming off two straight upset wins over Miami Ohio 35-33 as 7-point underdogs and Eastern Michigan 34-26 as 6-point dogs. Now this is a huge game on Senior Night at home against Toledo, and I think we get another big effort from them in a game they can certainly win outright.
Toledo sits at 5-5 on the season and was officially eliminated from MAC West title contention last week when Northern Illinois beat Ball State to get to 5-1 in the conference, while Toledo sits at 3-3. The Huskies already beat the Rockets, so they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
I question Toledo's motivation the rest of the way now that they have been eliminated from the MAC title picture. Yes, they want to get bowl eligible bowl with another win, but they know they have lowly Akron on deck at home next week to accomplish that.
Toledo is getting way too much respect off its 49-17 win over lowly Bowling Green last week. Remember, the Rockets had gone 1-3 SU in their previous four games with upset losses to Northern Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite, Central Michigan as a 5-point favorite and Eastern Michigan as a 9-point favorite. They cannot be trusted to go on the road and lay 7 points her against this surging Ohio team with more to play for.
The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Toledo is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games. The Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Ohio Tuesday.
|11-15-21||Rams v. 49ers +4||Top||10-31||Win||100||127 h 12 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Francisco 49ers. The entire world, including myself, were on them last week. I had them +2.5 and they closed -5.5 against the Cardinals, an 8-point adjustment. But they fell flat on their faces and turned it over three times in a lackluster 17-31 loss.
Now the 49ers will have be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. Especially with all the headlines the Rams are making of late with all the moves they are making to try and win a Super Bowl.
Speaking of falling flat on their faces, the Rams lost 16-28 as a 7-point home favorite to the Tennessee Titans last week. They didn't have Von Miller for that game and may not have him this game, either. And too much is being made of the trade for Odell Beckham Jr, who has been a cancer everywhere he has gone. The bigger news is losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice on Friday. He has been a reliable receiver for this team for years under Sean McVay. Odell is questionable to play Monday as well and won't be that effective even if he does.
The 49ers are simply way better than their 3-5 record would indicate. They are outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game despite not having Jimmy G for a couple games. They outgain their opponents by 0.8 yards per play which is one of the better margins in the NFL, averaging 6.3 per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense. Jimmy G and George Kittle are both back healthy, and he has plenty of weapons now to get the ball to in the underrated Deebo Samuel plus Brandon Ayuk.
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply own McVay and the Rams. The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings winning outright as underdogs all three times they were in the dog role. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 Monday games. Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning five or six of their last seven games coming in. Bet the 49ers Monday.
|11-15-21||Buffalo -2 v. North Texas||Top||69-66||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -2
Buffalo is picked to win the MAC and the MAC is one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, especially at the top. Ohio upset Belmont, Akron nearly upset Ohio State losing by 1, Kent State gave Xavier a run for its money and Buffalo covered in a competitive effort against Michigan.
The Bulls returned four starters this season including three who averages at least 13 points per game in Jeenathan Williams (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Josh Mballa (15.3 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG). Williams had 32 pionts, Segu 15 and Mballa 13 in their 76-88 loss at No. 6 ranked Michigan.
North Texas is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight. The Mean Green are picked to finish 5th in lowly Conference USA. They lose three starters from last year and all three averaged in double figures scoring, so the losses are huge. They don't return anyone that averages more than 10 points per game.
Buffalo is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less or PK. The Bulls are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss. Take Buffalo Monday.
|11-15-21||Pacers v. Knicks -3||Top||84-92||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -3
The New York Knicks are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost two straight and five of their last six games overall against a tough schedule. They also want revenge from a 98-111 road loss to these Indiana Pacers on November 3rd earlier this month.
The Knicks come in on two days' rest and are fully healthy, so expect a big effort from them tonight. And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Pacers after going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Pacers will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days as well.
New York is 36-18 ATS in its last 54 games when revenging a same-season loss. The Knicks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days' rest. New York is 30-9 ATS in its last 38 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Knicks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Pacers. Bet the Knicks Monday.
|11-15-21||Furman v. Belmont -6||89-95||Push||0||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Belmont -6
The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year. Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation. I think we are getting good value on them after getting upset in their opener by a very good Ohio team from that MAC that just had a great shooting night.
The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team. They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally. This is a team that will be highly motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after not playing in it the past two seasons.
I backed Belmont as a 14-point favorite in its 81-43 home win over Evansville bouncing back from that loss to Ohio. And I'm on the Bruins again tonight against Furman, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off it 80-72 upset win at Louisville, a Louisville team that is down this year.
The Paladins lost arguably their two best players from last year's team that went 16-9. Clay Mounce (13.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is gone, as is Noah Gurley (15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG), who transferred to Alabama. They do have three returning starters but don't return any key players on their bench.
Belmont is 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days. The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two straight games with 19 or more assists. Furman is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds. The Paladins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Furman is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. Roll with Belmont Monday.
|11-15-21||Celtics -2.5 v. Cavs||98-92||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -2.5
The Boston Celtics will be out for revenge from a 91-89 road loss at Cleveland last time out on Saturday. They blew a 52-38 halftime lead in that game. Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to face the Cavaliers in Cleveland again on Monday.
This Cleveland team has been a big money maker in the early going and is starting to get a lot of respect because of it. But they can't continue playing that well without their best player in Collin Sexton, plus being without another of their best players in Lauri Markkanen. I don't expect this young team to handle success very well tonight.
The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. They have four wins all by 9 points or more over the Bucks, Raptors, Heat and Magic during this stretch. Their two losses came by 3 and 2 points, and keep in mind they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back against Cleveland last time out in a tough spot. They'll have their revenge tonight. Take the Celtics Monday.
|11-14-21||Nets v. Thunder +9.5||Top||120-96||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5
What more do the Oklahoma City Thunder have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? They are nearly double-digit underdogs again today despite going 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with only one loss by more than 8 points, which came against the Warriors on the road. The Warriors are playing better than anyone in the NBA to this point.
The Thunder pulled two outright upsets over the Lakers as 10.5 and 6-point dogs. They pulled outright upsets over the Spurs, Pelicans and Kings as well. And they only lost by 5 on the road to the Clippers as 12.5-point dogs to highlight some of their performances during this stretch.
Now they will really get up for this game with the Brooklyn Nets and Kevin Durant coming to down to visit his former team. The Nets will be without Paul Millsap and just don't have much help outside Durant and Harden, which is why they are tough to trust to go on the road and beat anyone by double-digits.
The Thunder are 19-3 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games. Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|11-14-21||Suns v. Rockets +9||115-89||Loss||-108||8 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +9
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 111-123 road loss to the Suns on November 4th earlier this month. They blew a 5-point halftime lead in that contest and should have covered as 11.5-point dogs. Now they come back as 9-point home dogs in the rematch.
The Rockets are fully healthy and ready to give Phoenix a run for its money tonight. Meanwhile, the Suns are going to be without DeAndre Ayton. And it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns after they have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with six straight covers against a very soft schedule.
All three meetings between the Suns and Rockets last season were decided by 6 points or less despite the Suns being favored by 14, 13 and 5.5 points. And that first meeting this season was closer than the final score would indicate. I just think it's asking too much of the Suns to go on the road and win by double-digits to beat us tonight against the revenge-minded Rockets. Roll with the Rockets Sunday.
|11-14-21||Panthers +10.5 v. Cardinals||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 2 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1. And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.
The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value. The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites. They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers. And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green. Colt McCoy had a career game.
I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat. And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable. Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.
This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum. But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover. Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500. And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.
The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week. Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.
Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game. They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play. They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold. The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.
This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals. They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans. They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall. Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week. They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six. Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.
Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites. Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-14-21||South Dakota State -2 v. Stephen F Austin||83-71||Win||100||4 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -2
It's a good time to 'buy low' on South Dakota State after their 88-104 loss at Alabama on Saturday. Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss. Look for them to dominate Stephen F. Austin like they dominated Bradley in an 81-65 win as a 9-point favorite in their opener.
Stephen F. Austin is tabbed 5th in the preseason WAC predictions. While they return four starters, they do lose one of their best players in Cameron Johnson (15.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG). And the first two games by SF Austin were ugly wins against teams they should have blown out, which is a bad sign of things to come. They only beat LSU-Alexandria 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63. Neither of those games even had betting lines.
The Jackrabbits are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. South Dakota State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Jackrabbits are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Lumberjacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs. Stephen F. Austin is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Take South Dakota State Sunday.
|11-14-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10||19-29||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season. They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.
Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least. They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to. They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.
Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season. The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints. They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites. Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.
That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense. They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week. Chris Godwin is also questionable. So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season. Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Washington Sunday.
|11-14-21||Browns +2.5 v. Patriots||7-45||Loss||-102||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Browns +2.5
The Browns were as healthy as they have been in a long time last week. It showed when they beat the Bengals 41-16 on the road in a dominant effort. Their secondary is finally healthy, and the offense showed what it could do without Odell Beckham Jr., continuing to play better without him as a distraction. I think their solid play carries over into this week against the Patriots.
I believe the Browns are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs. And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Patriots after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. Mac Jones gets a lot of love but it's not like he's been that great this season with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio.
The Patriots need to be able to run the ball to be successful. But they'll be up against an elite Cleveland front seven that can stop the run. The Browns rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 84.8 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. New England will be without top running back Damian Harris for this one as well, putting more pressure on Jones to make plays.
Like I said, this Browns secondary is healthy now and made life miserable on Joe Burrow last week. I think this Cleveland defense will shut down the Patriots as well. The Browns average 160 rushing yards per game and have proven they can still run it successfully even without Nick Chubb.
The Patriots give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that normally average 98 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry. I don't think they are that good against the run, they just haven't played many great running teams. This will be their toughest test yet trying to stop the run.
Home-field advantage has been non-existent for the Patriots this season. They are actually 1-4 SU at home with their only win coming against the lowly New York Jets. The Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road with their only non-cover coming in a huge comeback win by the Chargers, 47-42.
New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|11-14-21||Florida State -1 v. Florida||Top||55-71||Loss||-110||2 h 4 m||Show|
20* FSU/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -1
Leonard Hamilton is enjoying his best run in his 19 years at Florida State. The Seminoles don't rebuild, they reload because he's a tremendous recruiter. And he has taken advantage of the transfer portal again this season to reload.
The Seminoles are off to a great start this season with their 105-70 win over Pennsylvania as a 19.5-point favorite, covering by 15.5 points. Florida only beat Elon 74-61 as a 19-point favorite, failing to cover by 6 points. And the Gators lost two players to the NBA in the offseason and are coming off a disappointing 15-10 season as it is.
Florida State simply owns Florida. The Seminoles have gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Gators. They have also won seven in a row straight up in this series with the last four coming by 12, 12, 21 and 17 points. Bet Florida State Sunday.