|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-09-20||Twins -1.5 v. Royals||Top||2-4||Loss||-104||7 h 33 m||Show|
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-104)
The Minnesota Twins have lost three straight and will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. Look for them to get back in the win column in blowout fashion against the Kansas City Royals.
Ace Jose Berrios gets the ball for the Twins. He is 3-2 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 career starts against the Royals. Brady Singer is 0-1 with a 4.80 ERA in three starts this season for Kansas City. Bet the Twins on the Run Line Sunday.
|08-08-20||Suns -1.5 v. Heat||119-112||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -1.5
The Phoenix Suns are doing everything in their power to make the playoffs. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the restart with three outright victories. And now I expect them to take down the Miami Heat today.
While the Suns are healthy, the Heat have several injury concerns right now. Both Jimmy Butler and Kendrick Nunn will sit out this game, and Goran Dragic is questionable. The Suns are simply the better team right now given their current form and these injuries for the Heat.
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days this season. The Suns are 8-0 ATS in road games after. Having won four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. Take the Suns Saturday.
|08-08-20||Twins -147 v. Royals||6-9||Loss||-147||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -147
The Minnesota Twins opened the season 10-2. But back-to-back losses by one run will have them highly motivated for a victory when they take on the Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of this series Saturday.
Jake Odorizzi is coming off a great 2019 season for the AL Central champs. And he certainly doesn’t mind facing the Royals and will handle them tonight.
Danny Duffy is coming off a poor season in Kansas City and is 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA through three starts in 2020. Duffy is 0-2 with an 8.19 ERA in his last three starts against Minnesota, giving up 17 earned runs and 8 homers in 18 2/3 innings.
The Twins are 49-24 in their last 73 road games. Minnesota is 42-16 in its last 58 games as a favorite. The Royals are 22-67 in their last 89 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Kansas City is 14-40 in its last 56 games following a win. Roll with the Twins Saturday.
|08-08-20||Clippers v. Blazers -2.5||Top||122-117||Loss||-110||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Blazers TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Portland -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have gotten healthy due to the break in action and are fully taking advantage. They are on track to make the playoffs after opening 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since the restart.
Now they face a Los Angeles Clippers team that is basically already locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The Clippers would actually like to see the Blazers get the 8th seed to make the 1st-round matchup for the Lakers the most difficult. They know the Blazers would be their toughest opponent given that they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
That could be why the Clippers are deciding to rest Kawhi Leonard today. Both Patrick Beverly and Montrezl Harrell are out for Los Angeles as well. The Blazers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more over the lsat three seasons. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|08-07-20||Reds -115 v. Brewers||8-3||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -115
The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses. Now they open this series with their division rival in the Milwaukee Brewers looking to gain ground on them in the NL Central.
I’ll gladly back Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer at this price. He is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.525 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just one earned run and seven base runners in 13 1/3 innings with a whopping 20 K’s.
Eric Lauer gets the start for the Brewers. He is 14-17 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in his three years in the big leagues across 264 1/3 innings. Take the Reds Friday.
|08-07-20||Kings -4.5 v. Nets||Top||106-119||Loss||-110||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5
The Sacramento Kings finally got a taste of victory to remain alive in the Western Conference playoff race. They beat the Pelicans 140-125 outright as 4-point dogs. Look for them to build on that momentum and take down the Brooklyn Nets tonight.
The Nets are going to make the playoffs, it’s just whether they will be the 7th or 8th seed. They don’t have much to play for, and that showed in their 115-149 loss to the Celtics last time out. They are short-handed right now with all of their injuries, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Kings love to push the tempo and will challenge Brooklyn’s conditioning tonight. I expect the Kings to break them. Sacramento is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Kings Friday.
|08-06-20||Blazers -4 v. Nuggets||Top||125-115||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4
The Portland Trail Blazers have a lot to play for right now and they are playing like it. They have opened 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since the restart. I’ll back them again here as short favorites over the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They still have a lot of injury questions with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton all questionable to play tonight. Given the situation, don’t be surprised if they play it cautiously.
Denver is 7-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. The Nuggets are 19-37 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three years. Portland is 13-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|08-06-20||Reds +110 v. Indians||0-13||Loss||-100||7 h 45 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +110
The Cincinnati Reds will be motivated to bounce back from two straight losses to the Cleveland Indians the last two days. I like their chances with Luis Castillo on the mound tonight.
Castillo faced the Indians last year and held them to one run in six innings for a 1.50 ERA in his only career start against them. He went 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.143 WHIP with 10.7 K/9 over 32 starts for the Reds in 2019.
Carlos Carrascowent 6-7 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 80 innings last year. He is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts this season. Carrasco is 0-6 (-9.6 units) against the money line in night games over the last two seasons. Roll with the Reds Thursday.
|08-06-20||Pacers v. Suns +125||99-114||Win||125||5 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +125
The Phoenix Suns have played as well as anyone since the restart. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset victories over both the Mavericks and Clippers, two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Now they’ll take down the Indiana Pacers tonight as they continue their push to try and make the 8th seed in the West.
The Pacers have opened 3-0 as well, but against a much softer schedule. Their only good win was a huge comeback against Philadelphia. The other two wins were against Washington and Orlando. I still question how good this team is going to be moving forward without both Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb. Plus, Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.
Plays on underdogs (Phoenix) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog of 6 points or more are 66-34 (66%) ATS since 1996.
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this year. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Take the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.
|08-05-20||Red Sox v. Rays -136||5-0||Loss||-136||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -136
I successfully backed the Rays yesterday to bounce back from five straight losses in their 5-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox behind a great outing from ace Charlie Morton. I’m back on the Rays again today and fading the struggling Red Sox.
Boston has lost four straight to fall to 3-8 on the season. They have failed to top two runs in three of those four losses. They are scoring just 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. Tampa Bay is 5-1 at home and scoring 6.3 runs per game at Tropicana Field.
The Rays have a huge advantage on the mound today with Ryan Yarbrough, who is 0-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.858 WHIP in two starts while allowing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.
Martin Perez is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts for the Red Sox and is washed up. Perez has never beaten the Rays, going 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in eight career starts against them. Take the Rays Wednesday.
|08-05-20||Nuggets v. Spurs +3.5||Top||132-126||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +3.5
The San Antonio Spurs trail the Memphis Grizzlies by two games for the 8th seed in the West. They are also 0.5 games back of the Blazers for the 9th seed, and the 8th will square off against the 9th to make the playoffs.
It’s safe to say the Spurs are highly motivated for wins right now. They are clearly playing with a sense of urgency as they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since the restart with upset wins over Sacramento and Memphis, as well as a 2-point loss to Philadelphia as 7-point dogs on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Nuggets are only playing for playoff positioning. They lost by 20 to Miami and beat Oklahoma City in overtime. They have some injuries they are dealing with right now with both Will Barton and Garry Harris out, and Jamal Murray is questionable tonight. All three have missed their first two games as the Nuggets are playing it cautiously with them.
San Antonio is 48-22 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.
|08-04-20||Red Sox v. Rays -138||1-5||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -138
The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They opened 4-1 before losing five straight games heading into this series with Boston. They had yesterday off to regroup, and now I expect them to take down Boston tonight.
Ace Charlie Morton gets the ball for the Rays. Morton is off to a shaky start this season, but the fact remains that he is still an elite starter, and he’s undervalued due to the poor start. Morton went 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 30 starts in 2018 and 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA in 33 starts in 2019.
Conversely, Nathan Eovaldi is off to a great start this season for the Red Sox at 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA. He is overvalued as a result. But he has faced two poor teams in the Mets and Orioles thus far. Eovaldi is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay.
The Rays are 35-16 in their last 51 home games, including 20-6 in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Roll with the Rays Tuesday.
|08-04-20||Magic -1.5 v. Pacers||109-120||Loss||-105||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5
Few teams have been more impressive than the Orlando Magic since the restart. They have put together two double-digit victories over Brooklyn and Sacramento, two other teams fighting for their playoff lives.
The Indians Pacers have also been impressive with an upset win over Philadelphia in comeback fashion and an 11-point win over Washington. But the Pacers are not healthy right now as they are missing Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb, plus Victor Oladipo is questionable with a knee injury.
The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest. Take the Magic Tuesday.
|08-04-20||Suns +9 v. Clippers||Top||117-115||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9
The Phoenix Suns are making their run at the 8th seed in the West. They have opened 2-0 since the restart with a blowout win over Washington and an upset win over Dallas. Now I expect them to give the Los Angeles Clippers a run for their money tonight.
The Suns are almost fully healthy now and playing up to their potential. The Clippers are still missing some key pieces in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. They will have a hard time putting away the Suns by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread tonight.
Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss this season. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|08-03-20||Pirates v. Twins -1.5||4-5||Loss||-119||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-119)
The Minnesota Twins have picked up right where they left off last season when they set a MLB record with 307 homers and won the AL Central. They are 7-2 this season and scoring 5.1 runs per game with 16 homers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the worst teams in baseball. They sit at 2-7, hitting just .177 as a team and scoring 3.3 runs per game. Their starting rotation is terrible, and their bullpen has a 4.04 ERA and 1.536 WHIP. Minnesota’s rotation and bullpen have been solid. The bullpen has a 2.77 ERA and 1.128 WHIP on the season.
Derek Holland is 3-7 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 13 career starts against Minnesota. Holland went 2-5 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.506 WHIP in 84 1/3 innings last year between the Giants and Cubs. Take the Twins on the Run Line Monday.
|08-03-20||Raptors v. Heat +3.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-102||2 h 5 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Heat NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3.5
The mindset of the Miami Heat for this restart is perfect. Erik Spoelstra has said all the right things, and his team delivered with a 125-105 win over the Denver Nuggets in their first game back. Now I expect them to take down the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors now essentially have the No. 2 seed locked up in the East after taking down the Los Angeles Lakers in their opener. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Celtics with seven games to play. And I think this is certainly a bit of a letdown spot off such a huge win over the Lakers.
Miami is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Toronto this season. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Heat Monday.
|08-02-20||Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||108-106||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The San Antonio Spurs picked up a huge 129-120 upset win over the Kings as 3.5-point underdogs in their opener. Now this is their most important game of the restart facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are the No. 8 seed in the West and the team they are trying to beat out for that final playoff spot.
The Spurs are missing some important players in this restart, but they clearly showed they have enough to be competitive. They shot 53% as a team and 44% from 3-point range against the Kings. Five players scored in double figures, including DeRozan (27), White (26) and Gay (19).
The Grizzlies are a young team that may not handle the pressure of trying to make the playoffs well at all. They blew a 4th quarter lead to the Blazers and lost in overtime in their first game back from the restart. And I don’t believe they should be 4.5-point favorites here given that the Spurs simply need this game more.
San Antonio is 32-11 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Spurs Sunday.
|08-02-20||Padres v. Rockies UNDER 13||6-9||Loss||-105||4 h 30 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Rockies UNDER 13
Zach Davies and Antonio Senzatela are too good for a total this high in Colorado Sunday. Both have a 3.60 ERA through their lone starts of 2020 and both have had success against the opposition in the past.
Davies is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA in four career starts against Colorado. Senzatela owns the Padres, going 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts against them.
Davies is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. San Diego is 15-4 UNDER in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 0.5 RPG or more over the last two years. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|08-01-20||Heat +100 v. Nuggets||Top||125-105||Win||100||4 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat ML +100
The Miami Heat are at full strength coming into the restart. The same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets, who are going to be without Garry Harris, and they could be without both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, who are questionable. And I just love what I’m hearing from Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra.
“Our guys are competitors. They love this,” Spoelstra said. “They’re really enjoying this environment, having an opportunity to feel normal and get in between those four lines and compete. We’re excited about our team. We’ve had three really good weeks of practice, guys are ready.”
The Heat aren’t using these eight games to find a favorable matchup. They’re going to play the games and find out where they stand at the end.
“I don’t even need to explain it, we’re not going to lose games or play different to try to line up an opponent. That’s just not our language,” Spoelstra said. “We’re not going to Disney to waste each other’s times. We’re there for a reason. Competition, like I said, brings out a different quality in this group, individually and collectively. We’ll treat those games with great respect.” Bet the Heat on the Money Line Saturday.
|07-31-20||Reds -1.5 v. Tigers||2-7||Loss||-110||7 h 21 m||Show|
15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-110)
I’m back on the Reds today after their game with the Cubs got postponed yesterday. Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo are two aces on one staff for the Reds. I just backed Gray in victory, and now I’m on Castillo today.
Castillo went 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.143 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 over 32 starts for the Reds in 2019. In his first and only start of 2020, Castillo held the Tigers to just one run in six innings with 11 K’s to boot. He will handle them again tonight as the Reds win in blowout fashion.
The Tigers are arguably the worst team in baseball but they are getting more respect than they deserve from oddsmakers after their surprising 4-3 start. They are hitting just .205 as a team with one of the worst lineups in baseball.
Spencer Turnbull is 1-12 (-11 units) as a home underdogs of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. The Tigers are losing by 4.4 runs per game on average in this spot. Roll with the Reds on the Run Line Friday.
|07-31-20||Celtics +5 v. Bucks||112-119||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Bucks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston +5
The Milwaukee Bucks have the No. 1 seed in the East locked up. They are going to find it hard to be motivated until the playoffs get here. We saw that with their 103-124 setback against New Orleans in Monday’s scrimmage. And making matters worse is they will be without both Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, who both contracted COVID-19.
Boston is fighting for seeding and could get up to the No. 2 seed in the East as they trail the Raptors by three games. They are also just 2.5 games ahead of the Heat for 4th place. They for sure want either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee until the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the Bucks will be missing some key players, the Celtics come back fully healthy and ready to go. They have Kemba Walker (21.2 PPG), Jayson Tatum (23.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG), Jaylen Brown (20.4 PPG), Gordon Hayward (17.3 PPG) and Marcus Smart (13.5 PPG) all healthy and averaging double-digit points. Take the Celtics Friday.
|07-31-20||Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5||Top||135-140||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are the biggest beneficiaries of the time off. It allowed them to get healthy as injuries decimated their roster. They now have Jusuf Nurkic, Hassan Whiteside and CJ McCollum back healthy. Damian Lillard is also good to go.
The Blazers would be the scariest No. 8 seed of all the teams vying for that spot due to their massive potential when healthy. As we saw, they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
And now the Blazers have a chance to really make a statement against Memphis tonight, which is the current No. 8 seed in the West. I think this young Grizzlies team is vulnerable here down the stretch and will have a hard time matching what they did in the first half of the season. The pressure is on, and I trust the veteran Blazers in this pressure-packed situation. Bet the Blazers Friday.
|07-30-20||Jazz v. Pelicans -2||Top||106-104||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -2
The New Orleans Pelicans were playing great before the stoppage. They had gotten almost everyone back from injury, and they won eight of their final 13 games.
Now healthy again, the Pelicans were one of only two teams to win all of their scrimmages prior to the restart. Look for them to continue their solid play here tonight against the Utah Jazz as they try and chase down the Memphis Grizzlies for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.
The Jazz suffered a huge blow when second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic suffered a wrist injury that required season-ending surgery in May. He averaged 20.2 points per game and shot 41.4% from 3-point range this season. They simply cannot replace his shooting and scoring and will be much easier to defend now. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|07-29-20||Cubs v. Reds -105||Top||7-12||Win||100||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds -105
Yes, I’ve lost on the Reds the last two days against the Cubs. But I’m back on them again today in what has to feel like a must-win. The Cubs are now 4-1 with the Reds 1-4 and three games behind.
This is my strongest play of the season thus far. Ace Sonny Gray takes the ball for the Reds. Gray went 11-8 with a 2.87 ERA in 31 starts or the Reds last season. He pitched six innings of one-run ball with nine K’s against the Tigers in his debut.
While Gray is 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in six career starts against the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks has struggled against the Reds. The Cubs went 0-3 in Hendricks’ final three starts against the Reds in 2019. He went 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 14 2/3 innings.
Gray is 11-0 against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons. Bet the Reds Wednesday.
|07-28-20||Cubs v. Reds -109||Top||8-5||Loss||-109||9 h 44 m||Show|
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -109
The Cincinnati Reds have now dropped three straight by a combined 4 runs. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday, and I’ll back them at basically even money against the Chicago Cubs, who they already trail by two games in the division.
Tyler Mahle has had success against the Cubs in his career. He is 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in five career starts against them. He gave up one or fewer runs in three of those starts and went at least six innings in four of them.
Alec Mills has just six career starts in the big leagues and is no match for Mahle. The Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games after scoring 7 or more runs in two straight games. Chicago is 4-10 in its last 14 games in Cincinnati. Bet the Reds Tuesday.
|07-27-20||Cubs v. Reds +107||Top||8-7||Loss||-100||12 h 9 m||Show|
20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds +107
The Cincinnati Reds are showing great value today as underdogs off back-to-back losses to the Tigers. They’ll come back highly motivated for a win Monday against division rival Chicago in Game 1 of this series.
Wade Miley is 6-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Cubs. That includes 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA against Chicago over the last two seasons. He went 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA for the Houston Astros in 2019.
I’ll gladly fade Jon Lester, who went 13-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts for the Cubs last season. He is clearly on the decline, but his name recognition continues to have him overvalued. Bet the Reds Monday.
|07-26-20||Diamondbacks +110 v. Padres||Top||4-3||Win||110||5 h 48 m||Show|
20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks +110
The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory today after dropping the first two games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks. I expect them to get the job done and taste their first victory Sunday.
Zac Gallen posted a 2.81 ERA with 96 K’s in 80 innings between the Marlins and Diamondbacks last year. He’s one of the best young starters in the game. Gallen fired 7 shutout innings while allowing only two base runners in his lone career start against the Padres on September 4th last year. Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.
|07-25-20||Tigers v. Reds -1.5||Top||6-4||Loss||-115||6 h 26 m||Show|
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-115)
It just shows how strong the top of the rotation is for the Cincinnati Reds that Luis Castillo didn’t get the Opening Day start. That went to Sonny Gray, who shut down the Tigers in a 7-1 victory. Rinse and repeat today for Castillo.
Castillo went 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.143 WHIP with 10.7 K/9 last season for the Reds. He is supported by one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, which makes the Reds a real contender in the NL Central this year.
The Tigers were the worst team in baseball last year, and not much has changed in the offseason to change that. Their lineup and starting rotation are atrocious. That’s evident by having to send Ivan Nova out there as their No. 2 starter. The 33-year-old posted a 4.72 ERA across 34 starts for the White Sox last season. Bet the Reds on the Run Line Saturday.
|07-24-20||Twins -111 v. White Sox||10-5||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -111
It was no fluke that the Minnesota Twins won the AL Central last year. They had eight players hit at least 20 home runs as they smacked a major league record 307 on the season. They brought basically their entire lineup back, plus added slugger Josh Donaldson. They will be dangerous all season at the plate.
The Twins give the ball to their clear ace in Jose Berrios for the opener. Berrios owns the White Sox, going 11-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.
Lucas Giolito is certainly the ace of the White Sox as well. But he’s just 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 10 career starts against Minnesota. Take the Twins Friday.
|07-24-20||Brewers v. Cubs -103||Top||0-3||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
20* Brewers/Cubs ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago -103
Kyle Hendricks makes his first Opening Day start for the Cubs and he has earned it. Look for him to continue his domination of the Brewers at a great price Friday. Hendricks is 8-6 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 21 career starts against them.
Brandon Woodruff gets the Opening Day start for the Brewers. Their weakness this year is their rotation, and that shows with Woodruff getting the nod Friday. He has posted a 7.10 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in three career starts against the Cubs. Bet the Cubs Friday.
|07-24-20||Braves +145 v. Mets||0-1||Loss||-100||5 h 50 m||Show|
15* Braves/Mets ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +145
I love the price we are getting on the Atlanta Braves on Opening Day. I believe they are the best team in the NL East as they have no weaknesses. Their young lineup is loaded, and they have an underrated rotation. They went 97-65 last season to win their second straight NL East title.
Mike Soroka gets the Opening Day nod for the Braves. He earned it by going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 2019 while finishing sixth in the Cy Young voting. He was also 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting. Soroka has never lost to the Mets, going 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in five career starts against them.
While Jacob DeGrom puts up great numbers year after year, he always gets done in by a poor lineup and bullpen. That is going to be the case with the Mets again this season. Case in point is that DeGrom has great numbers against the Braves in his career, but he’s just 7-7 against them and the Mets have gone just 8-13 (-10.8 Units) in his 21 starts against Atlanta. New York is mispriced as this big of a favorite here. Roll with the Braves Friday.
|03-11-20||North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse||Top||53-81||Loss||-110||12 h 45 m||Show|
20* UNC/Syracuse ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -3
I was on North Carolina last night in their 78-56 beat down of Virginia Tech. And I’m on them again as short favorites over Syracuse for many of the same reasons. The Tar Heels have a huge home-court advantage as evidenced last night with this tournament being played in Greensboro, NC.
The Tar Heels have both Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) and Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) back healthy, something they didn’t have earlier this season. The result has been a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run in their last five games overall with all four wins by 6 points or more.
That includes their 92-79 road win at Syracuse as 5-point dogs on February 29th. It should be more of the same here as the Tar Heels are by far the superior team when healthy. And North Carolina is now 9-0 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Syracuse.
Syracuse is 1-8 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season. The Orange are 2-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Syracuse is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four neutral site games. Bet North Carolina Wednesday.
|03-11-20||Vanderbilt +9.5 v. Arkansas||73-86||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +9.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores have been grossly undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. That includes outright wins over Alabama as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina as 5-point home dogs in their final two games of the regular season.
Now, Vanderbilt is catching 9.5 points in a neutral court game against Arkansas in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. But this is far from neutral as there will be a big home-court advantage for the Commodores with this SEC Tournament being played in Nashville, TN.
While Arkansas has been crushing it at home this season, the Razorbacks have been awful away from home. They are just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in all road/neutral games this season. And they were beaten by two of the worst teams in the SEC in Georgia and Texas A&M by 10 and 8, respectively, in their last two road games.
Arkansas is 0-7 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games this season. The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.
|03-11-20||Hornets +10 v. Heat||109-98||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10
The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They only have two losses by more than 8 points in their last 12 games. They have been very competitive, and they certainly can hang with the Miami Heat tonight.
While the Hornets are fully healthy, which is a big reason for their solid play of late, the Heat have a plethora of injury concerns. They are without Meyes Leonard, and Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are all questionable to play tonight. The Heat are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Hornets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Charlotte is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Heat are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an SU win. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|03-11-20||Iowa State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State||71-72||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5
Kansas City, Missouri is known as Hilton South because Iowa State fans always travel well for the Big 12 Tournament. It’s no coincidence that the Cyclones have won four of the past six Big 12 tournaments, which is a remarkable feat.
Sure, Iowa State is down this year, but you can never count them out in the Big 12 Tournament. And getting +6.5 with the Cyclones in this opener against Oklahoma State is simply too many points. The Cyclones will get Prentiss Nixon back from injury, and there’s a good chance they get Rasir Bolton back after he missed the last regular season game with a concussion.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Oklahoma State, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its final three games of the season. But those three wins were against three of the worst teams in the conference in Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas. So the Cyclones want revenge from their 61-73 loss at Oklahoma State on February 29th less than two weeks ago.
Oklahoma State is 1-9 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games off a win by more than 20 points. Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.
|03-10-20||Nets +10.5 v. Lakers||Top||104-102||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
20* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Brooklyn +10.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge weekend. After going 0-3 against the Bucks and Clippers previously this season, they beat both of them at home. Those are their two biggest contenders to win a title this season, and you could see the excitement on their faces after beating both.
It’s only human nature now for the Lakers to be flat tonight against the Brooklyn Nets in this obvious letdown spot. Plus, LeBron James aggregated a groin injury Sunday and is very questionable to play tonight. Don’t be surprise if the Lakers use extra caution and sit him.
Head coach Kenny Atkinson and the Nets just mutually agreed to part ways. Jacque Vaughn will be the interim coach the rest of the season. Teams usually respond well for a few games at least to a coaching change, and I expect that to be the case for the Nets here.
But the Nets have still be playing well in going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Boston on the road and San Antonio (by 19) and Chicago at home. They also only lost by 3 at Miami as 7.5-point road dogs. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Nets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Nets Tuesday.
|03-10-20||Suns v. Blazers -5||105-121||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -5
The Portland Trail Blazers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight upset losses to Phoenix on the road and Sacramento at home in a back-to-back situation. But now the Blazers are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.
Adding to their motivation is that they just lost to Phoenix 117-127 on the road on March 6th just a few days ago. They don’t have to wait long for revenge. And there’s no way Phoenix shoots 19-of-42 (45.2%) from 3-point range again, which was the difference in that game.
Phoenix is in a massive letdown spot off two straight upset wins over Portland and Milwaukee at home. It was a rare win for the Suns in this series. The Blazers are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 meetings with Phoenix.
Portland is 12-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. Plays on any team (Portland) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two losing teams (40% to 49%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Blazers Tuesday.
|03-10-20||North Carolina -4 v. Virginia Tech||78-56||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
15* VA Tech/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -4
The UNC Tar Heels are the most underrated team in the country. They have so many close losses this season and have battled through injury all year. But they are finally pretty healthy heading into the ACC Tournament and it has shown with how they have played down the stretch.
The Tar Heels are the team nobody wants to face in the ACC Tournament. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over NC State by 6 at home, Syracuse by 13 on the road and Wake Forest by 10 at home. Their only loss came by 13 at Duke as 10.5-point dogs in a game that was close until the final two minutes.
Now UNC wants revenge on Virginia Tech from a 77-79 (2 OT) road loss on January 22nd. But they didn’t have Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) or Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) in that contest. Anthony and Robinson have been back down the stretch, though Robinson is questionable tonight with a head injury.
The Hokies have been woeful since that double-OT win over the Tar Heels. They are just 2-10 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall with nine of those losses by 4 points or more, including five by double-digits.
The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. UNC is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with North Carolina Tuesday.
|03-09-20||Raptors v. Jazz -4||Top||101-92||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -4
This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-113 win in Sacramento last night. They will also be playing their 5th road game in 9 days and have to be running on fumes. And now they have to go to Utah and play in altitude.
Many players played big minutes for the Raptors last night. Powell played over 42 minutes, Siakam over 38 minutes, Anunoby over 38 minutes, Ibaka over 35 minutes and Lowry over 35 minutes. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.
Utah is back to playing up to its potential with five straight victories including four of those on the road. And now the Jazz want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 110-130 setback in Toronto on December 1st. They trailed that game by 40 at halftime and have not forgotten.
The Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-08-20||Iowa v. Illinois -3.5||Top||76-78||Loss||-108||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -3.5
Home-court advantage has been huge for both of these teams this season. And it has been important in this head-to-head series as well as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Illinois wants revenge form a tough 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd in which the Fighting Illini blew a halftime lead. They also blew a halftime lead at Ohio State in their last game adding to their motivation. The Fighting Illini are 14-3 SU at home this season and will get their revenge.
Iowa is just 2-7 SU in true road games in Big Ten play with its only wins coming at Northwestern and Minnesota, which are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or more and the seven losses are by an average of 12.4 points per game.
Iowa is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons, losing by 14.3 points per game in this spot. The Hawkeyes are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Fighting Illini are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Illinois Sunday.
|03-08-20||Thunder v. Celtics -3.5||105-104||Loss||-109||7 h 42 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Boston -3.5
The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a win after going just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses in OT, by 1 and by 5 points. It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Celtics, who get Gordon Hayward back from injury.
The Thunder were one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA all season, especially on the road, but bettors are starting to catch on. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And I think they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers now as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Celtics tonight.
The Celtics are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Thunder. Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|03-08-20||Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5||Top||112-103||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Clippers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5
When the best teams in the NBA meet up I usually look to the UNDER. The Lakers just beat the Bucks 113-103 at home on Friday in a game that went way UNDER the 228.5-point total. And this one will play out similarly with points harder to come by for these teams that normal.
It will be the 3rd meeting of the season between the Lakers and Clippers, so they are very familiar with one another. And the first two meetings saw just 214 and 217 combined points. So we are getting a ton of value here on this 226.5-point total with the UNDER.
The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Lakers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings. The UNDER is 19-9 in Clippers last 28 games after a combined score of 225 points or more. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|03-07-20||Kings v. Blazers -3||123-111||Loss||-109||13 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3
This line has been adjusted too much for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings even with this situation.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kings, who have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. But Sacramento just lost outright to the short-handed 76ers 108-125 as 5.5-point home favorites. And I just can’t see them beating the Blazers on the road tonight.
Portland is 12-0 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Sacramento with 10 of those wins coming by 4 points or more. Those 12 wins have come by an average of 9.9 points pre game as well. The Kings haven’t won in Portland since 2012. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|03-07-20||Rockets v. Hornets +8.5||Top||99-108||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8.5
The Charlotte Hornets have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They continue to be today as 8.5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets.
The Hornets are 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Three of those losses came to the Bucks by 8, Spurs by 1 and Nuggets by 2. They have been dcompetitive in basically every games and even pulled four road upsets over the Pistons, Timberwolves, Bulls and Raptors.
The Rockets are going to be without both Russell Westbrook (27.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.0 APG) and Eric Gordon (14.5 PPG) tonight. That’s a lot of production to be missing for a team that has to go on the road and win by 9-plus points to beat us.
Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. They just lost outright as 10-point favorites at New York in their last road game. Roll with the Hornets Saturday.
|03-07-20||Louisville v. Virginia -104||54-57||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia PK
Death, taxes and Virginia being underrated every year. All the Cavaliers have done is go 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 73-80 at Louisville as 7-point dogs. Malik Williams (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) had 13 points and 6 rebounds in that first meeting, but he won’t be playing today due to injury.
Now, the Cavaliers get their chance at revenge for their lone loss during this stretch. They host Louisville Saturday and just have to win to cover. Considering Virginia is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings, and 5-0 SU in the last five home meetings, that won’t be a problem.
Louisville is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three road games. It lost at Georgia Tech by 6 as 6-point favorites, at Clemson by 15 as 4.5-point favorites and at Florida State by 15 as 2.5-point dogs. The Cardinals are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the road today.
Virginia is 13-1 SU off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Louisville is 1-6 SU in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last two years. Roll with Virginia Saturday.
|03-07-20||Alabama v. Missouri -1||50-69||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1
The Missouri Tigers have been a very tough out at home this season. They are 11-4 SU at home with some impressive wins against some of the top teams in the ACC. Now they take down Alabama on Senior Day.
Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last five home games with its only loss to Mississippi State by 4. The Tigers beat Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia. They also beat Florida earlier this season at home.
Alabama is coming off an ugly 79-87 home loss to Vanderbilt as 12-point favorites. They’ve been playing without John Petty Jr. (15.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) who remains questionable with an elbow injury. But I like Missouri whether or not he plays as the Crimson Tide are just 4-7 SU in true road games this season.
Plays against road dogs SU after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 48-11 (81.4%) SU since 1997. The Tigers basically just have to win SU to cover this short number. Take Missouri Saturday.
|03-07-20||Kansas v. Texas Tech +3.5||Top||66-62||Loss||-105||5 h 2 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Texas Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +3.5
After going losing three straight, including a 68-71 (OT) loss at Baylor as 7-point dogs last time out, Texas Tech needs a signature win to assure they make the NCAA Tournament. They get that opportunity today hosting Kansas.
Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a tough 75-78 loss at Kansas as 8.5-point dogs on February 1st in their first meeting this season. They already proved they could play with the Jayhawks on the road, so they certainly can beat them at home.
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Jayhawks, who have won 15 straight games coming in while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. But they failed to cover their last two in a 4-point win at Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites and a 9-point home win over TCU as 16-point favorites, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. They already clinched at least a share of the Big 12 title so they certainly won’t be as motivated as Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are 13-3 SU in home games this season. Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. It is winning by 18.7 PPG in in this spot. The Red Raiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings. Take Texas Tech Saturday.
|03-07-20||Kentucky v. Florida -2.5||Top||71-70||Loss||-105||4 h 2 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/Florida CBS No-Brainer on Florida -2.5
Kentucky has already wrapped up the SEC regular season title. They also already beat Florida 65-59 at home two weeks ago on February 22nd. I could see them being really flat today.
That won’t be the case for the Gators, who are out for revenge and still trying to make sure they make the NCAA Tournament. The Gators are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Tennessee by 5 and Kentucky by 6.
Florida has been dominant at home here of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 points per game. That includes a 15-point win over LSU and a 14-point win over Arkansas.
The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Gators are 11-3 SU at home this season. Bet Florida Saturday.
|03-07-20||Wisconsin v. Indiana -2||60-56||Loss||-109||3 h 3 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Indiana ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2
The Indiana Hoosiers are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘Last Four In’ line. They’ll be highly motivated for a home win over the Wisconsin Badgers today that would likely put them into the big dance.
Indiana is a sensational 15-3 SU at home this season. They basically just have to win to cover, and they want revenge from a bad loss at Wisconsin in their first meeting this season. The Badgers are just 5-9 SU in all road/neutral games this season.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Wisconsin. The Badgers are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. I could easily see them letting up here in their regular season finale as they have already earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament thanks to this seven-game winning streak.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less this season. Indiana is 35-19 ATS in its last 56 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|03-06-20||Bucks v. Lakers -1||Top||103-113||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1
The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 104-111 road loss at the Milwaukee Bucks in their first meeting this season. This is a huge statement game for them and one I expect them to win at home, where they are 22-7 SU this season.
The Lakers have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall. They come in fresh and ready to go working on two days’ rest after last playing on Tuesday night. The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days with a ton of travel in between.
The Bucks lost at Miami 89-105 as 4.5-point favorites in their last road game. So they are beatable on the highway, and I look for the Lakers to have their revenge tonight at home.
The Lakers are 14-4 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season. Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|03-06-20||Blazers -3.5 v. Suns||117-127||Loss||-105||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are 3.5 games back of the 8th seed in the West and in need of a big finish to make the playoffs. I know we’ll get a big effort from the Blazers moving forward because of it.
I was on the Blazers in Damian Lillard’s return Wednesday when they crushed Washington 125-104 at home. And I’ll back them again here against the Phoenix Suns, a team they have owned in going 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.
The Suns are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming at home and three of them by 9 points or more. Making matters worse for the Suns are injuries to Kelly Oubre Jr, DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Johnson that will keep all three out of the lineup tonight. That’s an average of 45.8 points per game they will be missing.
Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in home games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS this season. The Suns are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games overall. Phoenix is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%. Take the Blazers Friday.
|03-06-20||Ball State v. Northern Illinois -1||Top||75-54||Loss||-110||9 h 7 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1
I love the spot for Northern Illinois tonight. It’s Senior Day so this will be the Huskies’ final home game. And they want revenge from a 59-63 road loss at Ball State as 7-point dogs on February 11th.
I expect the Huskies to get their revenge at home this time around. Northern Illinois is 11-3 SU at home this season with its only losses coming to Northern Iowa, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Akron. The Huskies are 7-1 SU at home in MAC play this season. Ball State is just 2-7 SU in its last nine true road games.
Ball State is 1-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents over the last two seasons. Northern Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that win between 51% & 60% of their games over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%. Bet Northern Illinois Friday.
|03-06-20||Hawks +3 v. Wizards||112-118||Loss||-115||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3
Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce called out his team for their lack of effort in an 88-127 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. They’ve had three days off since, so look for a big effort from them tonight when they visit the Washington Wizards.
While it’s a great spot for the Hawks, it’s a terrible one for the Wizards. They return home from a tough four-game road trip on West, and I like to fade teams when they return home from long road trips. It will be the 3rd game in 4 days and the 8th game in 13 days for the Wizards.
Atlanta is 47-20 ATS in its last 67 games off a home loss by 10 points or more. Washington is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games after playing three consecutive road games. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days’ rest. Roll with the Hawks Friday.
|03-06-20||Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4||65-62||Loss||-109||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4
The Clemson Tigers want revenge from a 59-68 road loss at Georgia Tech on February 25th less than two weeks ago. They don’t have to wait long for revenge, and they should get it at home this time around.
Clemson has been a very tough out at home here of late. The Tigers are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games which includes upset wins over Florida State as 3.5-point dogs, Louisville as 4.5-point dogs and Duke as 10.5-point dogs. They also beat NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Yellow Jackets, who have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But four of those wins were at home with their lone road win coming at lowly Wake Forest. Clemson is 18-4 SU & 13-9 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Georgia Tech.
Clemson is 7-0 ATS in Friday games over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher. Plays against road teams (Georgia Tech) - off three or more consecutive wins in a game involving two winning teams (51% to 60%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Clemson Friday.
|03-05-20||California +15.5 v. Oregon||56-90||Loss||-110||12 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on California +15.5
The Cal Golden Bears have quietly gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 15.5-point road underdogs to the Oregon Ducks tonight.
Cal only lost 72-77 at home to Oregon as 10.5-point dogs on January 30th in their first meeting this season. So they will be out for revenge and should have no problem staying within 15.5 points on the road in the rematch.
Cal is a sensational 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Oregon. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. at team with a winning percentage above 60%. Cal is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference home win. Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win. Take California Thursday.
|03-05-20||Clippers +1 v. Rockets||120-105||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +1
The Los Angeles Clippers are making their case as being the best team in the NBA when healthy. And since they’ve been healthy the last few weeks, they’ve been on a roll in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game.
Now, the Clippers want revenge after losing two of their first three meetings this season with the Rockets. They want to square the season series, and I love their chances against this small ball Rockets lineup that has been out-rebounded in 14 straight games.
The Rockets are coming off an ugly 123-125 road loss to the New York Knicks as 10-point favorites. They found themselves down as many as 21 points in that game, and giving up offensive rebounds was a big culprit. The Clippers rank 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage.
The Clippers are 26-14 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. Doc Rivers is 65-41 ATS when revenging a SU loss as a favorite as the coach of the Clippers. The Rockets have given up 104 or more points in 28 straight games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.
|03-05-20||Boise State v. UNLV -1||Top||67-61||Loss||-110||6 h 29 m||Show|
20* Boise State/UNLV Mountain West No-Brainer on UNLV -1
Nobody is playing better than UNLV in the Mountain West heading into the conference tournament. The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins over New Mexico and San Diego State as 14.5-point dogs.
UNLV gets to play at home for the conference tournament, which is a huge advantage that isn’t being factored into the line enough. They won their last two home games over Colorado State by 24 and Boise State by 10 and are 12-6 SU at home this season. I realize that Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG) is doubtful to play tonight for the Rebels, but they get back Donnie Tillman (10.1 PPG) from a five-game absence to make up for it.
Boise State is just 4-8 SU in true road games this season. And that 66-76 loss at UNLV was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate. UNLV led 60-33 with 10 minutes left before calling off the dogs. The Broncos outscored them by 17 in garbage time. You’ll get a focused UNLV for 40 minutes in this one and the result will be another blowout win in their favor.
T.J. Otzelberger is 15-4 ATS in home games off two straight wins in all games he has coached. The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. UNLV is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet UNLV Thursday.
|03-04-20||Wizards v. Blazers -7.5||Top||104-125||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -7.5
This is an important time for the Portland Trail Blazers. They made the Western Conference Finals last season and now find themselves 3.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the West. It’s now or never for the Blazers.
Injuries have been a big reason for their poor season thus far, but they get Damian Lillard back from a seven-game absence tonight. They have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games overall with most of those on the road. But now they get seven of their next eight at home and a chance to make some serious headway.
After beating the Magic 130-107 as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday, the Blazers return home looking to continue their solid play. They host a tired Wizards team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Bradley Beal played 38 minutes in a 126-133 shooting loss at Sacramento last night. He and the Wizards won’t have much left in the tank tonight.
Washington is 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 9-24 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two years. Portland won 122-103 at Washington as identical 7.5-point road favorites in their first meeting this season. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Magic +7 v. Heat||113-116||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7
This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Orlando Magic, who have lost two straight coming in including a shocking 107-130 home loss to Portland as 6.5-point favorites. Aaron Gordon did not play in that game and there’s a good chance he returns tonight.
It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the Miami Heat, who have won three straight and are coming off a shocking 105-89 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 4.5-point dogs. The Bucks haven’t been beaten many times this season, so it’s only human nature for the Heat to have an emotional letdown off that huge win.
The Magic were playing very well prior to that loss to the Blazers. They have gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. This will be their 4th and final meeting with the Heat, and after losing two of the first three, they will be motivated to square the season series at two games apiece.
Miami is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home win. The Heat are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games off a blowout win by 15 points or more. Orlando is 12-3 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Miami. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Florida International +9.5 v. Louisiana Tech||73-76||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida International +9.5
I was on Florida International when they lost 57-60 at LA Tech as 10-point dogs on February 13th. So I’m certainly taking them again in the rematch at LA Tech as 9.5-point dogs this time around.
This has simply been a bad match for LA Tech in recent years. FIU is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with LA Tech despite being the underdog in all four. They have an excellent shot of pulling the upset again tonight.
Asking LA Tech to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Bulldogs are just 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and have been grossly overvalued here down the stretch. Their four wins during this stretch have come by 3, 3, 2 and 13 points.
LA Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off three straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. FIU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Florida International Wednesday.
|03-04-20||LSU v. Arkansas -3||Top||90-99||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -3
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a completely different team with Isaiah Joe (16.9 PPG) in the lineup. They recently lost five straight games that he missed due to an injury.
But the Razorbacks are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS since his return with wins over Missouri by 10 and Tennessee by 17 at home with their only loss coming at Georgia. The Razorbacks need to win these last two games to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. It starts tonight with LSU at home.
Adding to Arkansas’ motivation is that it will be out for revenge from a 77-79 loss at LSU in their first meeting on January 8th. The Razorbacks are 13-4 SU at home this season and should be able to handle a struggling Tigers team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
LSU is 1-8 ATS off a conference win this season. Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after two straight games where it made 78% or better from the FT line. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Bet Arkansas Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5||67-72||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5
The Indiana Hoosiers are on the bubble and cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight. They should make easy work of the Golden Gophers just as they did when they won 68-56 as 5.5-point road dogs at Minnesota on February 19th in their first meeting this season.
Minnesota is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall to play its way out of NCAA Tournament contention. The Golden Gophers put a lot of energy into two straight heartbreaking losses to Maryland by 1 and Wisconsin by 2. I don’t think they’ll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face an Indiana team that simply wants it more tonight.
Indiana is 14-3 SU at home this season. The Hoosiers are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season with eight of those nine losses coming by 4 points or more.
The Hoosiers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Gophers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Hoosiers are 12-3 ATS vs. bad pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in road games revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points over the last three seasons. Take Indiana Wednesday.
|03-03-20||Raptors -4 v. Suns||Top||123-114||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4
The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a win tonight. They have lost three straight coming in with two of those losses to the Nuggets and Bucks. They haven’t lost four straight all season, and they aren’t about to tonight.
The Raptors had gone 17-1 SU in their previous 18 games prior to this three-game losing streak. They have been playing without Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka during this skid, which has something to do with it. But both have a chance to return tonight. Even if they don’t, they’re deep enough to beat the Suns here.
Phoenix is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight home losses to the Clippers by 10, the Pistons as 9-point favorites and the Warriors by 16 as 11-point favorites. They aren’t playing well at all right now, and they recently lost Kelly Oubre Jr. to a season-ending knee injury.
The Raptors are 5-0 SU in their last four meetings with the Suns with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Toronto is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games playing on one days’ rest. Phoenix is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games playing on two days’ rest. The Suns are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%. The Suns are 2-14 ATS off a division loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|03-03-20||Purdue v. Iowa -4.5||Top||77-68||Loss||-107||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5
The gift that keeps on giving is betting Iowa at home. The Hawkeyes are 14-1 SU & 11-2-2 ATS at home this season. That includes 11-0 SU & 9-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play. And now the Hawkeyes are highly motivated for revenge from their worst loss of the season at Purdue in their first meeting on February 5th.
The Hawkeyes are even more potent now after getting C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.8% 3-pointers) back from an ankle injury in their 77-68 home win over Penn State over the weekend. Purdue shot 63.1% as a team and 55.9% from 3-point range while draining 19 3-pointers against Iowa in their first meeting. That’s not going to happen again.
Purdue is 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Boilermakers are 4-10 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. That includes 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in all Big Ten road games with their only wins coming at Northwestern by 3 and Indiana. Their seven losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game.
Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Purdue is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Iowa Tuesday.
|03-03-20||Mississippi State v. South Carolina -2||71-83||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -2
The South Carolina Gamecocks have gone 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 SEC games to play their way into NCAA Tournament contention. And it’s worth noting that each of their last three losses all came by 6 points or less, so they have been competitive in almost every game.
That includes their 76-79 loss at Mississippi State on February 19th just a few weeks ago. Now the Gamecocks want revenge on the Bulldogs at home this time around. South Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven home games outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game during this stretch at home.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-0 SU in the last four. Mississippi State is 4-6 SU In true road games this season with its only wins coming at Coastal Carolina, Florida, Arkansas and Missouri.
South Carolina is 16-6 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games this season. Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.
|03-02-20||Rockets v. Knicks +10.5||123-125||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10.5
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Houston Rockets tonight. The Rockets are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and coming off a huge overtime win at Boston on Sunday. They won’t be able to get up for the Knicks tonight.
That’s especially the case considering the Rockets just beat the Knicks 123-112 at home as 13.5-point favorites on February 24th. Now the Knicks get their shot at revenge just a week later. And after only losing by 11 on the road, I have no doubt they can stay within single-digits at home in the rematch.
The Knicks have quietly been a very profitable team to back thus far in 2020. New York has gone 10-6-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall. They have gone 6-3 ATS at home during this stretch including home losses to the Lakers, Raptors and 76ers by 8, 6 and 3 points, respectively.
New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season. The Rockets are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest. New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - in non-conference games, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 65-29 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Monday.
|03-02-20||Jazz -8.5 v. Cavs||Top||126-113||Win||100||8 h 60 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Utah Jazz tonight. They are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games which have all come since the All-Star Break. Now they get a team they can handle here in the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cleveland played well in its first few games under interim coach JB Bickerstaff. But the Cavaliers have come back down to reality in their last two, losing by 12 on the road to the Pelicans and by 9 at home to the Pacers. I expect them to suffer a double-digit loss tonight.
Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries since the All-Star Break. They will be without Tristan Thompson, Darius Garland, Dante Exum and Alfonzo McKinnie tonight. Those four combine to average 33.3 points per game so that’s a lot of production they’ll be missing. Conversely, the Jazz are fully healthy. They have won their last two meetings with the Cavaliers by 16 points at home and by 26 points on the road.
The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Utah is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a win. The Jazz are 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-01-20||Lakers v. Pelicans +2.5||Top||122-114||Loss||-105||10 h 4 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are 19-10 SU & 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. That includes 9-4 SU in their last 13 games with their only losses coming to the Rockets, Bucks, Thunder & Lakers.
Now the Pelicans want revenge from three losses already to the Lakers this season. They don’t want to get swept, and it’s worth noting that they were competitive in all three losses as they all came by 10 points or less. And they just played on February 25th in Los Angeles so New Orleans doesn’t have to wait long for this revenge opportunity.
While the Pelicans are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They lost 88-105 in Memphis last night as 11-point favorites. And don’t be surprised if LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis sits tonight as both are battling through injury.
The Lakers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. The Pelicans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with the Lakers. Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.
|03-01-20||Colorado v. Stanford -1||64-72||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* Colorado/Stanford ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1
The Stanford Cardinal have played their way back to the ‘first four out’ line. The Cardinal have gotten healthy and have played up to their potential over the last few weeks. Now they really have a chance to add to their resume with a win over a ranked Colorado team Sunday.
Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. The Cardinal went on the road and beat Washington by 8 and Washington State by 18. They also beat Utah at home by 8. The Cardinal are 13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS at home this season. They hung tough in a 74-81 loss at Colorado on February 8th as 8.5-point dogs. They led that game by 11 at halftime and now want revenge.
Colorado has been grossly overvalued of late due to that Top 25 ranking. The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost at home to UCLA by 7 as 10-point favorites and were upset at California by 16 as 8.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in. We’ll keep ’selling high’ on the Buffaloes today.
The Buffaloes are 14-40-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. Colorado is 12-38-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Stanford is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 home games. The Cardinal are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite. Take Stanford Sunday.
|03-01-20||Wichita State v. SMU -1||Top||66-62||Loss||-115||6 h 11 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -1
The SMU Mustangs have come up big with wins over Houston and Memphis recently that help their tournament resume. Now they get another good chance here to inch closer to the bubble by beating a fellow bubble team in Wichita State.
Considering SMU is 15-1 at home this season, this is a great value for the Mustangs today as a short 1-point favorite. They are 8-0 at home in conference play and home one of the best home-court advantages in the AAC.
SMU has the rest advantage here last playing on February 25th while Wichita State last played on February 27th. The Shockers have basically lost to all the best teams they have faced on the road this season. They are 2-4 SU in their last six AAC road games with their only wins coming over UCF and USF. They lost to Temple, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati by an average of 12.8 points per game.
Wichita State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams that win between 60% & 80% of their games like SMU. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet SMU Sunday.
|02-29-20||Arizona v. UCLA +3.5||64-69||Win||100||23 h 28 m||Show|
15* Arizona/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3.5
Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins in first place in the Pac-12, tied with Oregon. The Bruins have put themselves in this position by going 10-2 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to ASU and Oregon.
UCLA is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games. The Bruins face a reeling Arizona team that is coming off back-to-back upset losses to Oregon at home and USC on the road. There’s no way Arizona should be favored on the road tonight with their injury situation.
The Wildcats will be without Josh Green (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) for a second straight game due to a back injury. They could also be without Max Hazzard (5.5 PPG) for a second straight game due to personal reasons. Arizona’s offense was dreadful in the 48-57 loss at USC without these two on Thursday.
UCLA upset Arizona 65-52 as 12.5-point road underdogs on February 8th in their first meeting. Sean Miller is just 9-19 ATS revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Wildcats. Arizona is 2-9 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons. UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games off a conference win over the last three years. The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Take UCLA Saturday.
|02-29-20||Magic v. Spurs -3||Top||113-114||Loss||-109||10 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3
The Orlando Magic just played in a taxing 136-125 home win over the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves last night. Now the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while having to travel to San Antonio overnight.
The Spurs come in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder and Mavericks. And they had beaten the Jazz on the road as 7-point dogs and Thunder as 8-point dogs outright in their previous two games. They finally get a break in the schedule here and will take advantage.
While the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days, the Spurs are rested and ready to go. San Antonio comes in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday. They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. I’ll gladly side with the fresher, more motivated team tonight.
The Magic are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest. Orlando is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season. San Antonio is 35-10 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years. The Magic are 0-9 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots in the 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
|02-29-20||Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5||88-105||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 226.5
The Memphis Grizzlies just lost both Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.9 PPG) and Brandon Clark (12.0 PPG) to injuries. Their offense has really faltered without these two scoring 101 points against Sacramento, 112 against Houston and 97 against the Clippers in their last three games, respectively.
The Lakers have some injuries of their own that will hamper them offensively. LeBron James (25.5 PPG) missed last game and is highly questionable with a groin injury. Anthony Davis (26.6 PPG) is trying to play through an elbow injury, and Danny Green (8.4 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.
These teams just played on February 21st just over a week ago in a 117-105 home win for the Lakers and 222 combined points. So they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors defense. Jackson Jr. and Clarke both played in that game, as did James and Green, and there’s a good chance none of those four will play in the rematch.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) - off four or more consecutive losses against an opponent that is off four or more consecutive wins are 72-34 (67.9%) since 1996. Memphis is 12-3 UNDER off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.
The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with 222 or fewer combined points in all seven games and an average of just 209 points per game, which is 17.5 points less than this 226.5-point total. The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine home games. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|02-29-20||Arizona State v. USC -3||Top||61-71||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3
The USC Trojans want revenge form a tough 64-66 road loss at Arizona State earlier this month on February 8th. The Trojans led that game 40-32 at halftime on the road and feel like they let one get away.
Now, the Trojans will be highly motivated for a win at home tonight where they are 12-2 SU this season. They just got back Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Rakocevic (10.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) from illness and promptly beat Arizona 57-48 as 4.5-point home underdogs on Thursday.
Arizona State is coming off a tough 72-75 road loss at UCLA on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Now they have to try and get back up off the mat just two days later and hit the road again to face a USC team that will be motivated for revenge. That’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice.
USC is 17-4 SU & 12-9 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Arizona State. The Trojans are 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents this season. USC is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season. The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take USC Saturday.
|02-29-20||San Diego State v. Nevada +5.5||Top||83-76||Loss||-109||21 h 28 m||Show|
25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Nevada +5.5
Expectations are finally catching up to the San Diego State Aztecs. Their 27-1 record and No. 5 national ranking come with expectations that are hard to live up to. That has certainly shown in their last two games.
The Aztecs lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites 63-66 to UNLV last Saturday. Then they found themselves in a dog fight in a 66-60 home win over Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites on Tuesday. And now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West in Nevada.
Nevada is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The Wolf Pack boast one of the best players in the country in Jalen Harris (21.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games coming in. They actually led 35-33 at halftime at San Diego State in their first meeting. You know they want revenge at home where they are 12-2 SU on the season this time around.
The home team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Aztecs. Bet Nevada Saturday.
|02-29-20||BYU v. Pepperdine +8||81-64||Loss||-109||19 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8
The spot couldn’t be worse for BYU. The Cougars are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga as 4-point underdogs. That win cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what they do the rest of the way.
It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cougars, who are just 5-5 SU in true road games this season. And they certainly won’t be motivated to face a Pepperdine team that they already beat by 27 at home in their first meeting this season.
Conversely, Pepperdine wants revenge from that defeat and to show that they can play with BYU. The Waves are 9-4 SU at home this season with three of those losses coming by single-digits. The only exception was a 12-point loss to Gonzaga as 15-point dogs.
Plays on home teams (Pepperdine) - revenging. Blowout loss by 20 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent are 56-21 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Lorenzo Romar is 11-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games as a head coach.
Pepperdine is 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with BYU with all four wins in upset fashion. BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5. Pepperdine is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Bet Pepperdine Saturday.
|02-29-20||Loyola-Chicago v. Bradley -3||67-66||Loss||-109||15 h 28 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -3
The Bradley Braves want revenge from their 51-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 5-point dogs on February 1st. It will be a completely different story at Bradley this time around.
The Braves are 15-1 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season. And it’s worth noting the Braves didn’t have their best player in Elijah Childs (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) in that first meeting with the Ramblers.
Loyola-Chicago is 4-6 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in true road games this season. The Ramblers are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five MVC road games with their only win coming by 7 at Evansville, which is 0-17 in MVC play. The four losses have all come by 5 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game.
Loyola-Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons. The Ramblers are 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the last two years. Bradley is 57-29 ATS in its last 86 home games revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Bradley Saturday.
|02-28-20||Nuggets v. Clippers -5.5||103-132||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Clippers voiced their frustration over a recent season-high three game losing streak. They have responded well by going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games since with a 27-point home win over Memphis and a 10-point road win at Phoenix.
The Clippers are 23-6 at home this season and should be bigger favorites over the Nuggets tonight. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Clippers beat the Nuggets 132-111 in their last home meeting with the Nuggets.
Denver is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off two straight blowout home wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in Minnesota by 12 and Detroit by 17. They lost their last road game at Oklahoma City by 12 and will get worked on the road here by the Clippers, who are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.
Denver is 8-22 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 4-14 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scores 110 or more points this season. The favorite is 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Clippers Friday.
|02-28-20||Mavs v. Heat -2.5||Top||118-126||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5
The Miami Heat will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight off two straight upset losses to Cleveland and Minnesota. Look for them to come out playing with a sense of urgency at home tonight.
We are getting the Heat at a value tonight because of those two losses. After all, the Heat are one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 23-4 SU & 18-8-1 ATS at home this season.
Dallas is without Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson and Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Luka Doncic, who is questionable with a thumb injury. I expect Doncic to play, but if he doesn’t the Heat will be a substantial favorite and you’ll be getting a great number.
Miami is 15-2 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Heat are 14-3 ATS vs. Southwest Division opponents over the last two seasons. Miami is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss. Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Heat Friday.
|02-28-20||Davidson v. Dayton OVER 140.5||67-82||Win||100||9 h 0 m||Show|
15* Davidson/Dayton ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 140.5
Two of the best offensive teams in the country square off tonight when the Dayton Flyers host the Davidson Wildcats. Dayton ranks 4th in adjusted offense, while Davidson ranks 31st in adjusted offense according to KenPom.
Dayton is scoring 79.9 points per game on 52% shooting on the season, including 82.0 points per game on 52.9% shooting at home. The one knock on the Flyers is that they don’t defense as well as most of the top teams in the country, which is why many believe they won’t make a deep run in the tournament.
Davidson has really come on strong in winning four of its last five games. The OVER is 4-1 in those five games. The Wildcats have scored at least 72 points in seven of their last eight games overall and are averaging 80.8 points per game during this stretch.
Davidson and Dayton have combined to average 147.8 points per game in their last five meetings. Dayton is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season. The OVER is 4-0-1 in Wildcats last five road games. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|02-27-20||Lakers v. Warriors +10||Top||116-86||Loss||-105||12 h 13 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10
The Los Angeles Lakers will be without MVP candidate LeBron James tonight after a groin strain suffered against the Pelicans on Tuesday. Asking them to win by double-digits on the road against the Warriors is asking too much without James in the lineup.
We will ’sell high’ on a Lakers team that has won six straight coming in, and ‘buy low’ on a Warriors team that has lost seven straight coming in. But the Warriors are getting healthier as Draymond Green is expected to play tonight, and Andrew Wiggins is getting accustomed to their offense and should only continue to improve moving forward.
Golden State only lost 120-125 at home to the Lakers as 14-point underdogs in their last meeting on February 8th. Now the Warriors get their shot at revenge just a few weeks later here, but they don’t have to contend with James this time around. James had 22 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds in that game.
Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Lakers) - a hot team having won six or seven of their last eight games that wins at least 75% of their games playing a bad team that wins 25% or less of their games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS since 1996. The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Warriors Thursday.
|02-27-20||Arizona v. USC +5.5||Top||48-57||Win||100||12 h 38 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5.5
Off two straight road losses at Colorado & Utah, the USC Trojans return home highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are a bubble team right now and could certainly use a win over a ranked team like Arizona tonight.
Jonah Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Nick Rakocevic (11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) both barely played against Utah Sunday due to illness. Both are healthier now and listed as probable. This should give the Trojans a big boost. They are 11-2 SU at home this season.
Arizona is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The Wildcats only beat the Trojans 85-80 at home in their first meeting this season on February 6th. Now the Trojans are out for revenge and catching 5.5 points at home this time around in the rematch.
The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in conference games this season. USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet USC Thursday.
|02-27-20||San Diego v. Gonzaga -25.5||59-94||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Gonzaga -25.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off just their 2nd loss this season with a 78-91 setback at BYU Saturday in one of the best atmospheres this season in all of college basketball. Look for them to return home highly motivated tonight and to make easy work of San Diego.
Gonzaga already beat San Diego 94-50 on the road as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. If they can beat them by 44 on the road, the Bulldogs can certainly cover this 25.5-point spread at home.
San Diego is just 2-12 SU & 5-8-1 ATS in West Coast Conference play this season. They just lost their last game by 29 at St. Mary’s, which lost by 30 at home to Gonzaga a few weeks back.
Gonzaga is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games over the last three seasons. It is winning by 35.5 points per game on average in this spot. The Bulldogs are 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Gonzaga is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following an upset loss to a conference opponent. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Roll with Gonzaga Thursday.
|02-26-20||Celtics v. Jazz -4.5||Top||114-103||Loss||-105||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -4.5
The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping all three games since returning from the All-Star Break. I know we’re going to get a max effort out of them tonight, so I’m willing to lay the short number at home against the Celtics.
Boston is in one of the toughest spots in the NBA. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game since the All-Star Break. I have to believe they are out of gas, and playing in altitude in Utah makes it even tougher.
The Jazz are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with the three wins all coming by 8 points or more. The Celtics will be without their best player in Kemba Walker once again tonight, while the Jazz are fully healthy coming into this one.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - off three straight ATS wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Utah is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite. The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|02-26-20||Clippers -6.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
The Clippers had lost three straight for the first time all season before bouncing back with a 27-point win over Memphis. They made many comments leading into that game that the time was now to get it together. I look for them to stay focused at Phoenix tonight and take care of business.
While we will ‘buy low’ on the Clippers after dropping three of four, we’ll ’sell high’ on the Suns after winning three of their last four. Two of the wins came against the Bulls and Warriors, but they are coming off a shocking 20-point win at struggling Utah as 8.5-point dogs. That result has them overvalued. The Suns will be without Kelly Oubre Jr. tonight with a knee injury as well.
The Clippers simply own the Suns. Los Angeles is 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with the Suns, winning those 13 games by an average of 15.5 points per game. All things considered, this is a very short number for the Clippers to be laying tonight.
Plays against underdogs (Phoenix) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent that went under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Los Angeles is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a road favorite. Phoenix is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. Take the Clippers Wednesday.
|02-26-20||Indiana State v. Southern Illinois -2.5||Top||77-68||Loss||-109||8 h 16 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -2.5
I love the value we are getting with Southern Illinois as only 2.5-point home favorites over Indiana State tonight. It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Salukis after they have lost three of their last four coming in. Two losses came on the road to Northern Iowa and Valpo and the other was a home loss to Bradley by 2 in overtime. Those are three of the best teams in the conference.
Southern Illinois has been a juggernaut at home this season. The Salukis are 12-2 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season. They have beaten some of the best teams in the MVC at home this year in Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago. And they want revenge from a 56-68 road loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season. They should have their revenge considering the Salukis are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home meetings with the Sycamores.
Indiana State is yet another MVC team that has been great at home but terrible on the road. The Sycamores are 3-8 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in true road games this season. And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them off two straight wins over Northern Iowa at home and Evansville on the road by a combined 5 points.
Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season. The Salukis are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season, winning by 14.8 points per game on average. The Sycamores are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Salukis are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday.
|02-26-20||Rutgers v. Penn State -5||Top||64-65||Loss||-109||7 h 16 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -5
Off two straight losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions come back highly motivated for a win tonight against Rutgers. They also have revenge in mind after falling 61-72 at Rutgers on January 7th. Expect a big effort from the Nittany Lions tonight because of it.
Penn State is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game at home this year. Five of their six Big Ten home wins have come by 6 points or more.
Rutgers is 1-7 SU in true road games this season with its only win coming at Nebraska. Six of those seven losses have come by 5 points or more. I just think this is a generous price to back the Nittany Lions tonight as only 5-point home favorites with all things considered.
Rutgers is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games off two straight games where it attempts 12 or fewer free throws. Penn State is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Roll with Penn State Wednesday.
|02-26-20||Bradley -3.5 v. Illinois State||74-71||Loss||-108||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Bradley -3.5
The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the MVC when healthy. And they just recently got fully healthy with their two best players returning from injury. The Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Valparaiso.
Bradley should make easy work of one of the worst teams in the conference in Illinois State tonight. The Redbirds are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in MVC play this season. That includes their 63-75 loss as 8-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting this season.
Bradley owns Illinois State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with those four wins coming by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is a very short number for them to be laying tonight when they are clearly the superior team.
The Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. The Redbirds are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Illinois State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Take Bradley Wednesday.
|02-25-20||Memphis v. SMU -4||53-58||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4
The SMU Mustangs will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses at Tulane and Tulsa. They host a Memphis team that they already beat 74-70 on the road earlier this season.
I like SMU’s chances of bouncing back considering they have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country as well. The Mustangs are 14-1 at home this season and just upset Houston at home in their last home game. They are 6-0 at home in AAC play this season.
Memphis is in a big letdown spot off its 60-59 upset home win over Houston. The Tigers are 2-4 SU in AAC true road games this year with their two wins coming by a combined 6 points. Their four losses have come by an average of 14.5 points per game.
SMU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Memphis. The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Memphis is 1-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season. Take SMU Tuesday.
|02-25-20||Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5||60-64||Loss||-113||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Chicago -6.5
Loyola-Chicago has one of the best home-court advantages in the Missouri Valley this season. They are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year. And the Ramblers want revenge from a 62-65 road loss at Drake in their first meeting this season on January 7th.
Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home in MVC play this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.9 points per game. They have won six of their eight home games this season by 9 points or more, including wins over Bradley by 11 and Northern Iowa by 9, which are two of the best teams in the conference.
Drake has been overvalued big-time of late. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Evansville by 5 and Valpo by 2 in OT. The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in MVC road games this season with their only win coming at Evansville, the worst team in the conference.
Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Drake, winning by an average of 11.8 PPG. The Ramblers have won by 22, 15 and 15 points in their last three home meetings. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Loyola-Chicago is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss over the last three seasons. The Ramblers are 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss over the last three years. The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Ramblers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.
|02-25-20||Bucks v. Raptors +1||Top||108-97||Loss||-109||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Raptors TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto +1
The Toronto Raptors are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games overall and coming off a 46-point home win over the Pacers. And the amount of disrespect they are getting tonight as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks is alarming.
The Bucks are in a terrible spot. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat the Wizards 137-134 on the road last night as 12.5-point favorites. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rest a couple starters.
Milwaukee is going to have a hard time getting motivated night in and night out here down the stretch because they basically already have the No. 1 seed locked up. The motivation for the Raptors is obvious as they are trying to fend off the Celtics, Heat and 76ers for the No. 2 seed.
Toronto is a perfect 12-0 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last three seasons. Milwaukee is 13-27 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. Toronto is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|02-25-20||Iowa v. Michigan State -8||Top||70-78||Push||0||9 h 39 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State -8
The Iowa Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team, which is why they are 8-point road underdogs to Michigan State despite having the better record and ranking. That will show tonight as the Spartans make easy work of the Hawkeyes.
Iowa has been awful on the road this season. It is just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its eight Big Ten road games with its two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern and Minnesota. They lost by 36 at Purdue, by 12 at Indiana, by 12 at Michigan and by 10 at Maryland. They also were upset by Nebraska on the road and failed to cover in a road loss at Penn State.
Michigan State is coming off a 21-point win at Nebraska and simply owns the Hawkeyes. The Spartans are 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with Iowa. They have outscored the Hawkeyes by roughly 17 points per game in those 17 meetings.
Michigan State is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-22 ATS in all road games over the last three years. The Hawkeyes are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Spartans are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. Take Michigan State Tuesday.
|02-25-20||La Salle +11 v. Davidson||49-74||Loss||-109||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11
These teams are way more evenly matched than this 11-point spread would indicate. There’s a ton of value taking La Salle (13-13) over Davidson (14-12) as a double-digit underdog tonight.
The Explorers are coming off two straight wins and covers at home over Fordham and on the road in upset fashion over George Washington by 10. They have a 3-point loss at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at Duquesne as 9.5-point dogs to prove they can play with some of the best teams in the conference on the road. They upset Davidson last year by 10 as 6.5-point dogs as well.
Davidson has failed to cover its last two games coming in. The Wildcats lost outright as 12.5-point road favorites at St. Joe’s, which is arguably the worst team in the Atlantic 10. They did beat Rhode Island 77-75 at home over the weekend but didn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites.
La Salle is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season. The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season. La Salle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games overall. Roll with La Salle Tuesday.
|02-24-20||Suns v. Jazz -8||131-111||Loss||-105||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8
The Utah Jazz were upset at home by both the Spurs and Rockets in a back-to-back situation in their first two games back from the All-Star Break. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight against the Phoenix Suns, so I know we are going to get an ‘A’ effort from them.
The Suns are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Two of their wins came by single-digits against the Warriors and Bulls, which may be the two worst teams in the entire NBA right now. Their seven losses came by an average of 15.1 points per game, so they’ve rarely even been competitive.
The Jazz simply own the Suns. Utah is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Phoenix with seven wins by double-digits. They have won those eight games by an average of a whopping 21.3 points per game. So laying 8 points here is a real discount.
The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss. Roll with the Jazz Monday.
|02-24-20||Hawks +8 v. 76ers||112-129||Loss||-105||8 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +8
The Atlanta Hawks have come out of the All-Star Break going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with home wins over Miami and Dallas, two of the best teams in the NBA. Now they have their sights set on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
The 76ers are in a world of hurt right now. They are without two of their three best players in Ben Simmons (16.7 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.8 RPG) and Tobias Harris (18.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG). They cannot be 8-point favorites over the Hawks without these two.
Atlanta is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Philadelphia with its only loss coming by two points, 103-105. The Hawks were underdogs in all five games and pulled four outright upsets. They don’t even need to win SU for us to get a win here, they just have to stay within 8 points, which is very likely.
The Hawks are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Philadelphia. The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Take the Hawks Monday.
|02-24-20||Louisville v. Florida State -2.5||Top||67-82||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5
The Florida State Seminoles are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Louisville Cardinals. The Seminoles are 23-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road and three of them by 6 points or fewer.
Florida State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season and enjoying one of the best home-court advantages in the country. And keep in mind the Seminoles already beat the Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 4th.
Louisville has lost its last two road games in upset fashion to two mediocre teams. The Cardinals fell 58-64 at Georgia Tech as 6-point favorites and 62-77 at Clemson as 4.5-point favorites. It’s asking a lot of them to pull the road upset here and hand the Seminoles their first home loss of the season.
Louisville is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Florida State Monday.
|02-23-20||Wizards -2 v. Bulls||117-126||Loss||-107||9 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2
The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after falling to the Suns 104-112 at home last night. That followed up a 93-103 home loss to the Hornets. And now the Wizards will take their turn today.
The Bulls have lost eight straight games and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are a mash unit right now playing without Markkanen, Dunn, Porter Jr., Hutchison, Kornet and Valentine. They could get Wendell Carter Jr. back today, but it won’t matter.
The Wizards continue to show up every night. They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall, which includes their 126-114 home win over Bulls going into the break. They want to even the season series after losing the first two meetings to Chicago this season.
Chicago is 2-13 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Chicago is 4-17 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last two years. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Bulls are 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games, including 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Wizards Sunday.
|02-23-20||Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5||72-79||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing well and ready to take down Maryland today. They are favored for good reason. They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 7th. They’ll have their revenge Sunday.
The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa. They also upset Michigan on the road and beat Northwestern on the road. They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana by an average of 10.3 points per game.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Maryland, which has won nine straight games coming in. They did not play well at home against Northwestern last time out and only won by 9 as 14-point favorites. It’s a case of their heads getting too big and lacking the focus they need to beat a team as good as Ohio State on the road today.
The Buckeyes are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season. Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite. The Terrapins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Ohio State Sunday.
|02-23-20||Celtics v. Lakers -6.5||Top||112-114||Loss||-110||5 h 26 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from their worst loss this season. They lost 107-139 in Boston on January 20th in a complete no shot. The Celtics shot 55.9% as a team and 47.1% from 3-point range while making 16 3-pointers. That’s not going to happen again.
While the Lakers are fully healthy for the rematch, the Celtics will be without their leader in Kemba Walker, who averages 21.8 points and 5.0 assists per game this season. I don’t give the Celtics much of a chance of winning this game without Walker.
The Lakers were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are only 6.5-point home favorites in the rematch. That’s only a 4-point adjustment, which isn’t enough for home-court advantage changing hands. The Celtics are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Celtics because of it.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|02-22-20||Mavs v. Hawks +6||Top||107-111||Win||100||22 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6
This is a great spot to fade the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hawks, who had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.
Atlanta has pulled some impressive home upsets and hung with some very good teams at home in the 2nd half of the season. They are coming off a 129-124 upset win over Miami as 6-point home dogs. They upset the Clippers as 5-point dogs and the 76ers as 6-point dogs. They only lost by 5 to Toronto and by 8 to Boston. In fact, in their last 12 home games, they have either won outright or lost by single-digits in 11 of them.
Atlanta will also be revenge-minded tonight after losing earlier this month at Dallas 100-123. The Hawks haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home. And they get a shot at revenge here in Atlanta just a few weeks later.
The Hawks own the Mavericks, going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Mavericks are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta. Roll with the Hawks Saturday.