|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-29-23||Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 227.5||Top||121-110||Loss||-110||8 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls UNDER 227.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls will be playing for the 2nd time in 4 days. The Bulls won the first meeting 118-108 for 226 combined points. That total was set at 224.5, and now this total is set at 227.5, a 3-point adjustment up that is unwarranted.
That first meeting was played at a snail's pace but both teams shot great with the Bulls shooting 54% and the Lakers shooting 50.7%, and it's unlikely they'll shoot that well again. The Lakers and Bulls have now combined for 226 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.
The Bulls have been great defensively since trading for Patrick Beverly. He doesn't provide much offensively, but he makes them much better defensively. They are allowing just 105.7 points per game in their last six games. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now, so the defensive intensity will be there. It was going to be there anyway with that first meeting being very chippy a couple nights ago.
The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Lakers last 17 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The UNDER is 11-4 in Bulls last 15 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|03-28-23||Pelicans +9.5 v. Warriors||Top||109-120||Loss||-115||22 h 3 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +9.5
The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season behind Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum just to get into the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again behind these two with their season on the line trying to make the playoffs again this year.
Indeed, the Pelicans have saved their best basketball for last, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins by double-digits and by an average of 23.8 points per game. Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but that is mitigated by the fact that they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter of a 124-90 blowout win in Portland.
The Pelicans will be plenty fresh tonight, and they'll have no problem getting up to face the defending champs, who they trail by just a 0.5 games in the standings. The Warriors have been overvalued all season, especially of late going 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. That includes an upset home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves as 6.5-point favorites last time out. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.
|03-28-23||Utah Valley +2 v. UAB||Top||86-88||Push||0||117 h 56 m||Show|
20* Utah Valley/UAB NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley +2
I've been riding Conference USA in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament, but I think it's time to fade the conference here and go against UAB. Not because I don't think the Blazers are good, I just think Utah Valley is better and the wrong team is favored here.
Utah Valley is 28-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah. They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.
Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs. They finally got to play a home game and took advantage, topping Cincinnati 74-68 as 1.5-point favorites. That was previously the biggest game in program history, and now this will be the biggest game in program history in the semifinals.
One hidden factor here is that this will essentially feel like a home game for Utah Valley State being played in Las Vegas. Fans will be making the 5-hour trek to Las Vegas to support their team. Nobody from UAB is driving the 26 hours to Vegas. They may fly, but I can't see them having nearly the support that the Wolverines do.
The Wolverines are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win. UAB had the much easier path to get here beating Southern Miss and Morehead State at home as well as a short-handed Vanderbilt team on the road. Utah Valley had three better wins than them and are more battle-tested. Bet Utah Valley Tuesday.
|03-28-23||Wisconsin v. North Texas -1||Top||54-56||Win||100||126 h 35 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas -1
Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. C-USA is now 15-1 SU in all tournament games this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Final 4 as of this writing. That easily could have been North Texas instead.
North Texas was dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20. The Mean Green then went on the road and upset Oklahoma State by 6 as 4.5-point dogs. The Mean Green are now 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Wisconsin benefited from a pretty easy path to get here. They beat Bradley and Liberty (by 4) at home before going on the road and upsetting Oregon 61-58. But Oregon was without three of its best players, and that line was steamed from Wisconsin +5 down to +1.5 after the news came out. Yet the Badgers were still life and death with the Ducks.
This will be Wisconsin's stiffest test yet, and the Big Ten only had one team remaining in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State lost to Kansas State to go to the Elite 8. Wisconsin is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. The Badgers are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Mean Green, and not only are they the better team, but they simply want it more. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|03-27-23||Mavs v. Pacers +1||Top||127-104||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +1
Note: I released this play before the news of Luka Doncic having his 16th technical rescinded, thus being able to play tonight. I would still make this a 20* play at the current line of Pacers +4. The Mavericks have been terrible with or without Doncic, and he will be on tired legs. I still think the Pacers win this game outright.
The Indiana Pacers are still fighting to stay alive for a play-in spot in the East. Five of their last six games have come against playoff teams and all on the road, and they managed to win two of them as 12-point dogs at Milwaukee and 9.5-point dogs at Toronto. Now the Pacers are back home here for just the 2nd time in their lats nine games.
The Pacers are 19-17 SU & 21-14-1 ATS at home this season and welcome the hapless Dallas Mavericks, who are falling apart at the seams. They just they lost four consecutive games including back-to-back losses to the Hornets as 15.5-point home favorites and 12.5-point road favorites.
Luka Doncic picked up his 16th technical foul yesterday against the Hornets and scored 40 points in the process. But now they won't have his scoring because he has been suspended for this game, terrible timing for the star player on a team that is currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I just don't trust this team at all right now as they are simply imploding.
Rick Carlisle has stuck it to his former team with the Pacers after he got fired by the Mavericks. The Pacers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with Dallas. He would love nothing more than to deal them another blow to their playoff hopes. The Pacers had yesterday off, while the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.
Dallas is 5-17 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS as road favorites this season. Dallas is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Pacers Monday.
|03-26-23||Grizzlies v. Hawks OVER 243.5||123-119||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* Grizzlies/Hawks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 243.5
The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have gone for 244 or more combined points in six of their last seven games overall, so this 243.5-point total isn't that high for them.
The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team now that they have JA Morant back from suspension. In their two games since he returned, they combined for 255 points and 265 points in their two meetings with the Houston Rockets. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|03-26-23||Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 220.5||104-114||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 220.5
The Washington Wizards are going to be without two of their top three scorers in Bradley Beal (23.2 PPG) and Kyle Kuzma (21.2 PPG) today. They could be without 4th-leading scorer Monte Morris (10.2 PPG), who is questionable. They will struggle to score points today, and this game will be played at a snail's pace against the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors rank 25th in pace this season while the Wizards rank 23rd. The Raptors also have injury concerns of their own with two of their top five scorers questionable in Gary Trent Jr (17.7 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG). Both teams will have to rely on defense to try and win this game.
The UNDER is 15-7 in Wizards last 22 road games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Wizards last five Sunday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|03-26-23||Nets v. Magic -2||Top||106-119||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2
The Brooklyn Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight. Three starters played at least 34 minutes last night in their upset win over the Miami Heat in Bridges, Dinwiddie and Claxton. They won't have much left in the tank tonight for Orlando, and this is now a bit of a letdown spot for them.
The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the second half of the season. They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes an upset road win over the Clippers, a 3-point loss at Phoenix, a 6-point loss at LA Lakers, a 10-point home win over the Wizards and a 5-point home win over the Knicks. Now they come in rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is getting too much respect off that upset win at Miami last night. Bet the Magic Sunday.
|03-26-23||Miami-FL v. Texas OVER 149||Top||88-81||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
20* Miami/Texas Elite 8 No-Brainer on OVER 149
Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in the Elite 8 in Kansas City when the Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas Longhorns. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams with a better trio of guards in the country than these two.
Miami has put up 85 points on 48.6% shooting on Indiana and 89 points on 51.7% shooting against Houston in its last two games. That was the most points Houston allowed all season by 12 as their previous high was 77. Isaiah Wong (16.3 PPG), Jordan Miller (15.1 PPG) and Nijel Pack (13.8 PPG) are arguably the best trio of guards in the country.
Texas has put up 71 or more points in four consecutive games, including 76 against Kansas, 81 against Colgate and 83 against Xavier. Marcus Carr (15.8 PPG), Sir'Jabari Rice (12.9 PPG) and Tyrese Hunter (10.4 PPG) can match Miami score for score. And they may not have big man Dylan Disu, which would hurt them defensively because he is their best rim protector. Miami is a terrible defensive team and relies on outscoring opponents to win.
Texas is 18-3 OVER in its last 21 games against ACC opponents. The OVER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 NCAA Tournament games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|03-26-23||Mavs v. Hornets UNDER 231.5||104-110||Win||100||3 h 22 m||Show|
15* Mavs/Hornets NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5
Sunday UNDERS in these early start time games have been gold over the years. Teams aren't used playing this early in the day, and they seem to be sleep walking through the game. They don't look to push the tempo as much, either.
The Mavericks aren't a good defensive team right now, but their intensity on defense will be there as they are close to missing the playoffs. The Hornets have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing La'Melo Ball to injury. Now they are likely to be without Terry Rozier, who is doubtful, and could be without Kelly Oubre Jr. who is questionable. That's their three best guards and without those three they will struggle to score.
The UNDER is 13-3 in Hornets last 16 games overall. They have gone for 230 or fewer combined points in 14 consecutive games, making for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 231.5-point total. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|03-25-23||Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 225||Top||131-110||Loss||-110||15 h 39 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225
The Los Angeles Clippers are now an UNDER team without second-leading scorer Paul George (23.8 PPG). They are having to slow it down and run their offense through Kawhi Leonard. Five of their last seven games have seen 221 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 5-2 during this stretch.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been even more of an UNDER team without Zion Williamson. They are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.
Both teams are fighting to make the playoffs here as the season comes to an end, so the defensive intensity will be there. And this has been an UNDER series of late. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 203, 206, 219 and 202 combined points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in the six unders, and only 227 in the lone over.
The UNDER is 30-11 in Clippers last 41 home games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five road games. The Clippers are 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing against a team that wins 40-49% of their games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|03-25-23||Connecticut -130 v. Gonzaga||Top||82-54||Win||100||44 h 9 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn ML -130
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (16.1 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.5 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses. That's why KenPom has them as the 3rd-best team in the country, and I agree with it. He only has Houston and Alabama ahead of them. UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted defense.
The Huskies have been the most impressive team in the tournament to this point. They beat Iona by 24, St. Mary's by 15 and Arkansas by 23. That means they will still be very fresh for this game against Gonzaga because they didn't have to work too hard in the 2nd half against Arkansas Thursday night.
Gonzaga just survived against both TCU and UCLA to get here. They beat TCU by 3 and UCLA by 3. They also played the late game Thursday night, so they have even less rest than UConn heading into this one. I like backing the team that played the early game because they get the chance to watch their opponent after winning and get a head start on the scouting.
Gonzaga also benefited from TCU being without its best big man, and UCLA being without two starters in G Clark and F Bona. Drew Timme had huge games against both of those teams to lead the way, but things aren't going to come so easy against UConn. The Huskies rank 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, 14th in 2-point percentage and 25th in block percentage. They have three stud big men who can contain Timme.
UConn also ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound percentage, getting 38.9% of their own misses. Gonzaga is an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team. The Bulldogs are 73rd in adjusted defense and 235th in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Huskies are going to own them on the boards and limit Timme, which is going to be key to them getting this win. I'll gladly side with the better defensive team in this matchup.
UConn is 13-1 ATS in none-conference games this season. Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season. UConn is 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 12 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette. The Huskies continue rolling right into the Final 4 with a win here. Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.
|03-25-23||Pacers +9.5 v. Hawks||130-143||Loss||-110||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5
The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They are in 11th place in the East and within 3 games of the Hawks, Raptors and Bulls for the final three spots. They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.
The Pacers just got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury last night and are still 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They did get blown out by 25 points, so that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter to remain somewhat fresh for the Hawks tonight, a team they will be extra motivated to beat since it's one of the teams they are trailing.
Asking the Hawks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. They are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall with a 9-point home loss to Boston, a 21-point home loss to Minnesota, an 8-point road loss at San Antonio as a double-digit favorite and a 1-point loss at Minnesota. Top three scorers Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable to play for the Hawks tonight.
Indiana is 10-2 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season. Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games following an ATS win. The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|03-24-23||Bulls -2 v. Blazers||Top||124-96||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2
The Chicago Bulls are battling here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs. They are currently 10th in the East and in the final play-in spot. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Kings and 76ers. They upset the 76ers as 8.5-point road dogs and upset the Nuggets as 9-point road dogs during this stretch.
Now the Bulls take on the hapless Portland Trail Blazers, who are simply going through the motions here down the stretch as they have been all but eliminated from the playoffs. The Blazers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with five losses by 14 points or more. They are without Simons and Grant right now and could be without Nurkic, leaving way too much on Damian Lillard's shoulders to handle.
The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four home games losing by 11, 14, 15 and 16 points. They have zero home-court advantage right now as the fans have given up on this team this season. I'll gladly back the more motivated, healthier Bulls tonight. Bet the Bulls Friday.
|03-24-23||Suns v. Kings -3||127-135||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3
The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now. With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two. That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
Their lone win came at home against the Magic by 3 as 8-point favorites. They lost on the road to the Lakers by 11, the Warriors by 11 and the Thunder by 4. They also lost at home to the Bucks by 12 and the Kings by 9, so they have rarely even been competitive of late. It's too much on Devin Booker's shoulders and he can't carry the load.
The Kings should be more than 3-point home favorites tonight considering they are fully healthy and playing well. They also come in off consecutive losses and will be motivated for a victory, plus they come in on two days' rest. The Kings can inch closer to winning the division tonight, and it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at home tonight as Sacramento fans absolutely love this team, especially when they are in contention.
The Kings are 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game in this spot. This one has blowout written all over it tonight. Bet the Kings Friday.
|03-24-23||Xavier v. Texas -4||71-83||Win||100||54 h 18 m||Show|
15* Xavier/Texas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -4
The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won six consecutive games and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. That includes a pair of blowout wins over Kansas by 20 in the Big 12 Tournament and by 16 at home.
The Longhorns now go back to Kansas City for the Sweet 16, a familiar venue for them as they just won the Big 12 Tournament there by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6 and Kansas by 20. They are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City, and their familiarity with the venue is a hidden advantage as it will feel like a home game for them.
Xavier is overvalued after an easy path to the Sweet 16. They needed a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes against Kennesaw State to win 72-67. Then they beat a Pittsburgh team 84-73 that arguably shouldn't have even been in the NCAA Tournament. This is a big step up in class for Xavier compared to what they have faced thus far, while Texas fended off a red hot Penn State team that was playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch.
Texas has no weakness ranking 5th in KenPom at 15th in adjusted offense while 10th in adjusted defense. Xavier is an elite offensive team, but they struggle on the other end ranking 64th in adjusted defense. I always like backing the better defensive team in the NCAA Tournament given the choice. Dylan Disu will dominate the paint in this one. He is shooting 72.2% while averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds per game since the start of the Big 12 Tournament. The Musketeers have nobody inside that can match up with him, plus Texas has three elite guards which wins in the tournament as well. Bet Texas Friday.
|03-24-23||Pacers +12.5 v. Celtics||Top||95-120||Loss||-115||7 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12.5
The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They are in 11th place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bulls and 2 games behind the Raptors for the final two play-in spots. They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.
The Pacers are coming off a 118-114 win at Toronto as 9.5-point dogs without Tyrese Haliburton. There's a decent chance they get him back tonight, which would mean they are at full strength. But they have been a money maker even without him, going 8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The Boston Celtics are just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. This is a terrible spot for the Celtics as it's their first game back home following a six-game road trip. I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions to deal with at home, and it tends to be a flat spot.
The Pacers are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with two outright wins as 9.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss as a 15-point dog and a 4-point loss in OT as a 7.5-point dog. It's safe to say the Pacers match up very well with the Celtics, and getting 12.5 points is too much tonight. Bet the Pacers Friday.
|03-24-23||San Diego State v. Alabama -7||71-64||Loss||-115||51 h 50 m||Show|
15* San Diego State/Alabama Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -7
I've faded the Mountain West with success for years in the NCAA Tournament. It work out well with all teams not named San Diego State this season, but the Aztecs will be taking a big step up in class here against the most complete team in all of college basketball.
The Mountain West is 2-13 SU & 2-13 ATS in the last 15 NCAA Tournament games. The Mountain West is also 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in the last six Sweet 16 games. This conference has been grossly overvalued for years, and the Aztecs aren't about to break that trend in the Sweet 16 here. They beat two of the worst teams in the tournament in Charleston and Furman to get here.
Now they face an Alabama team that ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense. They have no weaknesses. San Diego State ranks 70th in adjusted offense and doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide if they fall behind. Maryland tried to muck it up last round against Alabama and was blown out 73-51. San Diego State will try to muck it up too, but they just aren't on the same level as Alabama.
These teams have a common opponent in Arkansas. San Diego State lost 78-74 to Arkansas on a neutral, while Alabama won both meetings with the Razorbacks by a combined 18 points this season. If Arkansas got 78 points on them, Alabama can certainly do more damage offensively as they are much better shooting team than the Razorbacks.
This will feel like a home game for Alabama being played in Louisville, Kentucky while San Diego State has to travel clear across the country here. Alabama is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season, winning by an average of 21.6 points per game in this spot. The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points and are getting way too much respect following the blowout win over Furman. Bet Alabama Friday.
|03-23-23||Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 233||105-127||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 233
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Thunder and Clippers. The Thunder won 101-100 for just 201 combined points on Tuesday, so we have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch Thursday night to keep this one UNDER this inflated 233-point total.
This has been an UNDER series as it is. In fact, the Clippers and Thunder have combined for 230 or fewer points in 15 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 233-point total.
The Clippers were already an UNDER team ranking 24th in pace this season, and now they just lost Paul George (23.8 PPG) to injury in that game Tuesday after he had 18 points in 34 minutes. They struggled without him going iso ball with Kawhi Leonard, and George could be out for the season, which is a huge blow to them offensively and puts an even bigger load on Leonard's shoulders.
These teams are both fighting to make the playoffs right now so the defensive intensity will be there again tonight. The UNDER is 30-10 in Clippers last 40 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-23-23||Gonzaga +2 v. UCLA||79-76||Win||100||47 h 51 m||Show|
15* Gonzaga/UCLA Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga +2
The UCLA Bruins are without their best defensive player in Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG). Adam Bona (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is playing through a shoulder injury, and David Singleton (9.1 PPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the Round of 32 and is very questionable to play against Gonzaga.
The Bruins were able to survive a 68-63 scare from Northwestern last round, but they won't be so fortunate as they take a big step up in class here against Gonzaga while dealing with all these injuries. The Bulldogs have made relatively easy work of both Grand Canyon and TCU, but the Horned Frogs made a late comeback to make the final score seemed closer than it really was.
Gonzaga comes in playing its best basketball of the season riding an 11-game winning streak. That includes a pair of dominant wins over St. Mary's 77-68 at home and 77-51 in the WCC Championship Game. St. Mary's plays a similar grind it out style to UCLA.
UCLA is ranked 3rd in KenPom right now, which has them inflated as a favorite here. But they aren't the 3rd-best team in the country. I would have a handful of teams ranked ahead of them, including Gonzaga given their current injury situation. And UCLA hasn't seen an offense as potent as Gonzaga all season. The Bulldogs rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage. They are also 12th in turnover rate so they don't beat themselves. They shoot 38.4% from 3 and 52.6% from 2 while averaging 87.3 points per game.
This game will be played in Las Vegas, and Gonzaga just won the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas. They always get tremendous fan support there and it will feel like a home game for them. UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams that shoot 48% or better, and 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. Bet Gonzaga Thursday.
|03-23-23||Florida Atlantic +5.5 v. Tennessee||Top||62-55||Win||100||82 h 9 m||Show|
20* FAU/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +5.5
Everyone was on Duke last week including myself. But I didn't plan for big man Mark Mitchell getting injured in practice the day before the game and sitting out. They missed his big body against Tennessee, a physical team that relies on defense to win games.
Now the Volunteers are starting to get respect from oddsmakers this week after beating Duke. But this team is a fraud and it will rear its ugly head here in the Sweet 16 against Florida Atlantic. The Volunteers are still just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall and without their starting PG in Zakai Zeigler. They are one of the worst offensive teams left in this tournament, which makes it tough for them to get margin. That showed up in a 58-55 win over Louisiana in the opener.
Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season and came out of one of the best mid-major conferences in the country. Both North Texas and UAB were NCAA Tournament-worthy, and the Owls outlasted both. North Texas and UAB are both making runs in the NIT as of this writing to show how good this conference really is. So I think FAU has played a tougher schedule than it gets credit for.
The win over Memphis was a really good one as the Tigers were playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They had beaten Houston in the AAC ChampionshIp Game, and I expected them to make a deep run in the tournament. I was pissed they got matched up with FAU because I figured the winner of that game had a great chance to make a deep run and beat Purdue. Well, Fairleigh Dickinson did that for them both in the opening round.
FAU instead of playing the cinderella actually played the role of hated favorite against FDU as the entire country was rooting against them. That was a tough spot for them to be in, and they handled it well pulling away late to beat FDU 78-70. Now they can get back to being that cinderella role and playing with a chip on their shoulder getting a chance to face a Power 6 team.
KenPom has Tennessee ranked 6th right now with Florida Atlantic 22nd. Tennessee being power-rated too highly has them overvalued. The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They should be ranked much worse than 60th in adjusted offense. They will struggle to get anything easy against a FAU defense that ranks 35th in adjusted defense and 15th in effective field goal percentage.
Rick Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Owls are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall. Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season. Bet Florida Atlantic Thursday.
|03-23-23||Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 226||Top||96-115||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Pelicans UNDER 226
The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing star PG La'Melo Ball to a season-ending injury. They are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall, combining for 224 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 games overall. That would make for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 226-point total.
The New Orleans Pelicans are also a dead nuts UNDER team without Zion Williamson. They are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 12 of their last 17 games overall. This total is too high based on how both these teams have been playing for over a month now. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-23-23||Arkansas v. Connecticut -3.5||Top||65-88||Win||100||80 h 44 m||Show|
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn -3.5
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (15.9 PPG), Newton (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.2 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses. That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it. He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation. UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense.
Arkansas is getting a lot of respect after upsetting Kansas. But Kansas was a fraud No. 1 seed along with Purdue. KenPom had Kansas ranked five spots below UConn and they probably should have been worse with the way they played to finish the season. Arkansas is ranked 18th according to KenPom while St. Mary's was 12th, yet UConn is a shorter favorite against Arkansas than they were against KenPom. That's value.
The matchup is a good one for the Huskies. Arkansas consistently tries to get to the room and get fouled or get layups because they are a terrible shooting team. They rank 317th in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.3%. UConn is 19th in the country in 2-point defense at 45.4%. They are 24th in block percentage and have the big men inside that won't allow Arkansas to get easy buckets at the rim like Kansas and Illinois did.
Even then, Arkansas shot just 38.1% against Illinois and 41.4% against Kansas and now faces a better defensive team here in UConn. Arkansas ranks 138th in allowing offensive rebounds defensively, while UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding. Winning the battle on the glass will also be a key factor in the Huskies running away with this game.
UConn is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 11 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette. That includes blowout wins by 24 over Iona and by 15 over St. Mary's to start the NCAA Tournament. UConn is 12-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Bet UConn Thursday.
|03-22-23||Suns v. Lakers +1||111-122||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* Suns/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1
The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now. With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two. That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
Yet the Suns continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers. This is a Lakers team that needs wins like blood right now trying to make the Western Conference playoffs. It's also a Lakers team that is fully healthy with the exception of LeBron James, and unlike the Suns, they are deep enough to still win without him.
The Lakers are 9-5 SU & 8-5-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup and is playing well as the Lakers have scored 108 or more points in eight consecutive games now. Anthony Davis is playing like the superstar they need him to be and will dominate tonight not having to face Ayton, and the role players are all doing their parts as well to try and get this team into the playoffs. Bet the Lakers Wednesday.
|03-22-23||Blazers v. Jazz -4.5||127-115||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -4.5
The Utah Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs right now in 10th place in the West just a half-game ahead of both the Lakers and Pelicans. They have come up clutch going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 4 points apiece to the Mavericks and Heat, both on the road in games they covered.
They have done this despite missing both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Lauri Markkanen has even missed some games, but he is upgraded to probable tonight. The Jazz are showing they are much deeper than they get credit for, and I know I'm going to get max effort from them tonight given what they've shown of late and their current standing.
I also think it's safe to assume we are going to get a below average effort from the Blazers, who just seem to be going through the motions right now 4 games out of a playoff spot. The Blazers are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall losing by 22 at Boston, by 17 at New Orleans, by 16 at home to New York, by 16 at home to Boston and by 15 at home to the Clippers.
As you can see, the Blazers haven't even been competitive during this six-game losing streak. They are without two of their top three scorers right now in Anfernee Simons (21.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jerami Grant (20.5 PPG), and Damian Lillard has been voicing his frustration in the media. It's just a really bad look for the Blazers right now, and there's no reason to believe they are going to show up tonight.
Utah is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games after covering the spread in five or more consecutive games coming in. The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|03-22-23||Utah Valley v. Cincinnati||Top||74-68||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* Utah Valley/Cincinnati NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley PK
Utah Valley is 27-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah. They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.
Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs. Now they get to host Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, and this is the biggest game in program history. It will be a tremendous atmosphere, and these kids would love nothing more than to play in Las Vegas for the NIT Semis.
Cincinnati has also been impressive in beating Virginia Tech and Hofstra thus far. I don't want to take anything away from them, but I just think it means more for Utah Valley. We also saw Utah Valley beat both BYU and Oregon on the road in the non-conference as they really tested themselves.
I think a hidden factor here is that Cincinnati is listed as the bottom team in the rotation order, so many think Cincinnati is the home team here. I think we're getting value because of that flaw with Utah Valley actually being the home team instead. The Wolverines are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Wolverines are 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.
|03-22-23||Rockets v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5||Top||125-130||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Grizzlies OVER 231.5
JA Morant makes his return from suspension tonight for the Memphis Grizzlies and will be looking to put on a show. The Grizzlies will be without one of their best defenders in Dillon Brooks, who is serving a one-game suspension for getting his 16th technical foul. They were already without two other plus defenders in Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. All these factors make Memphis an OVER team in the immediate future.
The Rockets are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tate (9.1 PPG). Their starting 5 of Green, Porter Jr., Sengun, Smith Jr. and Martin Jr. are all healthy and playing well. The Rockets have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games and have scored at least 107 points in nine of those 10 games. They will get enough against Memphis to help get this OVER the total.
Houston is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 road games after going under the total in its previous game. This number is too low based on how Memphis has been playing of late without Morant. They get back to being a high-octane offensive team with him back in the lineup now. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|03-22-23||Pacers +9.5 v. Raptors||118-114||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5
The Indiana Pacers are getting healthier and trying to make one final playoff push. They are 2.5 games back of the Bulls for 10th and 3 games back of the Raptors. Well, they get to play the Raptors tonight with a chance to cut into that deficit.
The Pacers clearly match up well with the Raptors. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them this season winning 118-104 and 122-114. There's a chance the Raptors are without Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.7 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Asking the Raptors to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|03-21-23||Thunder +7 v. Clippers||Top||101-100||Win||100||12 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7
The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and earn a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with six wins by 9 points or more and are currently the 9th seed in the West and one win away from getting back to .500 on the season.
The Los Angeles Clippers are also playing better of late but it's not like they are blowing out the opposition. They are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three wins by 8 points or fewer, and an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic as 6.5-point favorites.
The Thunder have the rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Thunder have owned the Clippers, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with four outright upsets, including two in two meetings this season.
The Clippers are 2-12 ATS in home games following a road game this season. The Thunder are 14-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|03-21-23||Cavs -2.5 v. Nets||115-109||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5
I like the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They come in on three days' rest last playing on Friday. There's a good chance they are fully healthy tonight as C Jarrett Allen has been upgraded to questionable, and everyone else is a go for the Cavaliers.
They should be bigger favorites over the Brooklyn Nets, who are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 14 at OKC, by 5 at home to the Kings and by 6 at home to the Nuggets. They aren't on the same level as the Cavaliers right now.
Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The Nets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game. Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|03-21-23||North Texas +4.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||65-59||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +4.5
Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Sweet 16. That easily could have been North Texas instead.
North Texas has been dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20. Oklahoma State has been much more lackluster, beating Youngstown State by 5 and Eastern Washington by 11. I think the Cowboys get caught here and lose this game outright to the Mean Green, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
The Cowboys are 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued. The Mean Green are 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. North Texas is 23-9-3 ATS in its last 35 road games. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|03-20-23||Warriors v. Rockets +11||121-108||Loss||-110||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +11
The Golden State Warriors are 0-11 SU & 0-11 ATS in their last 11 road games with nine losses by 8 points or more. They have rarely even been competitive on the highway. The Warriors are now 7-29 SU & 9-27 ATS on the road this season. In what world should they be double-digit road favorites against anyone?
The Houston Rockets are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late and will relish this opportunity to face the defending champs. I think that's a big reason for Golden State's road struggles this season is they get the opposing team's best effort, plus games are usually close to being sold out with them coming to town. It's an even bigger home-court advantage than normal.
Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with three outright upsets over Boston, the Lakers and Pelicans. They came back and lost to the Pelicans last night, but that was a letdown spot after beating them two days earlier. It was also a lookahead spot with the Warriors on deck. They will be back to being locked in for this game tonight.
Houston has lost just one of its last nine games by more than 10 points. The Warriors are 3-13 ATS as road favorites this season. Houston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following four consecutive games where they went under the total. Bet the Rockets Monday.
|03-20-23||Bulls +8.5 v. 76ers||Top||109-105||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5
The Chicago Bulls sit in 10th place in the East and in the final play-in spot. They are just 1.5 games ahead of both the Pacers and Wizards for that spot. They are clearly fighting hard to try to make the playoffs with the way they have been playing of late.
Indeed, the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall winning by 21 as 9-point dogs at Denver, by 8 at Houston, by 8 at home over Minnesota and by 14 at home over Miami after playing the second of a back-to-back. Their lone loss came by 3 at home to the Kings on a buzzer-beater. The Kings are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They followed up a five-game road trip with a buzzer-beater 120-119 home win over the Blazers, who are playing terrible right now. The 76ers now return home from a three-game road trip before going back on the road for four more games. There will be distractions to deal with at home with so many road games of late and coming up that I think we get a flat effort from the 76ers here.
Chicago is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following an upset win as a home underdog. The Bulls won 126-112 as 4.5-point road dogs in their last trip to Philadelphia on January 6th. This number is inflated tonight folks. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|03-19-23||Creighton v. Baylor||85-76||Loss||-110||30 h 26 m||Show|
15* Creighton/Baylor TBS ANNIHILATOR on Baylor PK
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games to close out the season. They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them. They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.
A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG). But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State was actually a good thing because it gave his ankle even more time to rest. Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.
I took advantage and backed Baylor as a top play as 10.5-point favorites in a 74-56 win over UC-Santa Barbara in the opener. And I'll 'buy low' on them again as a PK against Creighton as they are clearly the better team in my opinion, and they'll win this game comfortable.
Creighton has been overvalued all season after opening the season ranked in the Top 10 and considered a national title contender. All they have done is disappoint, including a 22-point loss to Xavier in the Big East Tournament. They needed a late surge to beat a bad NC State team that had no business being in the NCAA Tournament anyway in the opening round.
They were life and dead with the Wolfpack despite them shooting just 3-of-14 (21%) from 3. Baylor won't let them off the hook like NC State did. The Bears make 10 3's per game at a 37.1% clip on the season. They rank 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 31st in 3-point shooting. Creighton ranks 167th in defending the 3-pointer.
Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games. I believe the Bears have the coaching advantage with Scott Drew over Greg McDermott as well, and that's key with these teams only having a day to prepare for one another. I'll side with the tougher Big 12 over the weaker Big East in this matchup as well. Bet Baylor Sunday.
|03-19-23||St. Mary's v. Connecticut -3||Top||55-70||Win||100||43 h 54 m||Show|
20* St. Mary's/UConn TNT No-Brainer on UConn -3
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (16.0 PPG), Newton (10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG), Karaban (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses. That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it. He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.
What I don't agree with is KenPom having St. Mary's ranked 12th, which is why the Gaels get so much respect from the books. But they lack the athleticism of UConn and will struggle to defend them and to score against their length. The Huskies rank 28th in average height. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the country and their ability to win the battle on the glass will be a key factor here.
UConn is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette. UConn is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. St. Mary's is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game. The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
This is essentially a home game for UConn being played in Albany, NY. St. Mary's had the furthest travel of any team in the NCAA Tournament from the West Coast to the East Coast. That's another hidden factor in favor of the Huskies here, and I don't think it's being priced into this number enough as they are clearly the better team as well. Bet UConn Sunday.
|03-19-23||Nuggets v. Nets +105||108-102||Loss||-100||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets ML +105
The Denver Nuggets have been in a fog since the All-Star Break. It's like they won the championship for having the best record in the West going into the break. They still have a 3.5-game lead over both the Kings and Grizzlies, so they still aren't playing with a sense of urgency.
The Nuggets are now 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with upset losses to the Raptors are 6-point favorites, the Bulls as 9-point favorites, the Spurs as 13-point favorites, the Nets as 9-point favorites, the Raptors as 2-point favorites and the Knicks as 1-point favorites. Their only win and cover came in comeback fashion over the lowly Detroit Pistons only after a big 4th quarter.
Now the Nuggets are favored once again when they shouldn't be, especially given the spot. Denver will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days. They lost 110-116 to the Knicks on Saturday, and now they'll fall to the Nets again on Sunday.
This is a great spot for the Nets, who come in on two days' rest after a home loss to the Kings which followed up a five-game road trip. That first game back home is always a tough spot. But the Nets will get back to how they were playing before as they are now 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Denver is 0-8 ATS in road games following four consecutive games where they shot 47% or better. Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS In its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Nets on the Money Line Sunday.
|03-19-23||Suns v. Thunder -1||120-124||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -1
The Phoenix Suns are without two of their best players in Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton right now. It's no wonder they are struggling as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming over the Magic by 3 as 8-point home favorites. They lost by 9 at home to Sacramento, by 11 at Golden State and by 12 at home to Milwaukee.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most underrated team in the NBA for two seasons running now. They are legit playoff contenders this season and fighting hard to make the postseason right now. The Thunder have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with both losses coming on the road. Amazingly, all six wins came by 9 points or more.
One of those losses came to the Suns on the road, but that was a bad spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off a home win over the defending champion Warriors. So they were tired and in a letdown spot, while Phoenix was on two days' rest. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat out that game as well. Now it's the Thunder that are on two days' rest coming into this revenge spot.
Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more. The Thunder are 32-8 ATS in their last 40 Sunday games. Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Phoenix. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|03-19-23||Kentucky -125 v. Kansas State||Top||69-75||Loss||-125||26 h 15 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/Kansas State CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky ML -125
As is the case with most John Calipari teams, the Kentucky Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. But it's usually due to so many freshmen playing and getting better. This is a rare veteran Kentucky team that is playing like a Final 4 contender.
Kentucky has gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall with both losses coming to Vanderbilt, a team that matches up well with them and is as hot as almost anyone down the stretch. I also think Kentucky took them lightly. They have road/neutral wins over Arkansas by 9, Providence by 8, Florida by 8 and Mississippi State by 3, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 12 and Auburn by 32.
This will feel like a home game for Kentucky in Greensboro, NC as their fans travel well everywhere, and it's only about a 6 hour drive. It's 16 hours from Manhattan, KS to Greensboro for Kansas State fans.
A key factor here is that Kentucky ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding, and Kansas State is a terrible rebounding team ranking 219th in allowing offensive rebounds. They are also a short team ranking 312th in average height, so Kentucky's ability to dominate the glass will be a key factor in them winning this game. Bet Kentucky on the Money Line Sunday.
|03-18-23||Maryland v. Alabama -8||Top||51-73||Win||100||46 h 53 m||Show|
20* Maryland/Alabama TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -8
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in the country, period. They are still very fresh right now as they have won four consecutive blowouts en route to winning the SEC Tournament and advancing to the Round of 32. They beat Mississippi State by 23, Missouri by 11, Texas A&M by 19 and Texas A&M CC by 21.
The fact that they're still fresh is why I'm willing to lay the 8 points here with them against Maryland. The Terrapins needed a double-digit comeback to beat West Virginia 67-65. That was more WVU bad than Maryland good, and I think the Terrapins are getting too much respect for that win. Alabama should be favored by double-digits here.
That was a rare win for the Terrapins away from home. They went 2-9 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming against two of the worst Power 5 teams in college basketball in Minnesota and Louisville. This will essentially be a home game for the Crimson Tide being played in Birmingham.
Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Crimson Tide have a big coaching advantage with Nate Oats over Kevin Willard today as well. I trust Oats to get his team ready for this game in only two days over Willard. Bet Alabama Saturday.
|03-18-23||Northwestern +8 v. UCLA||63-68||Win||100||43 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northwestern +8
Injuries to UCLA are going to catch up to them sooner rather than later. After making easy work of UNC-Asheville in their opener, I think this is where the injuries catch up to them as they take a big step up in class here against the Northwestern Wildcats.
Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is one of the best big men in the country and suffered a season-ending injury in the Pac-12 Tournament. Fellow big man Adem Bona (7.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is nursing a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play today. That leaves the Bruins very thin on the inside, and if they win this game it won't be by margin, so getting 8 points with the Wildcats is a very nice value.
This will be more of a guard-oriented matchup, and Northwestern has two stud guards in Boo Buie (17.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Chase Audige (14.0 PPG) who can match up with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell of the Bruins. Keep in mind UCLA lost to fellow Big Ten opponent Illinois 79-70 on a neutral earlier this season. Northwestern beat Illinois by 13 at home and lost to the Fighting Illini by 4 on the road to give us a common opponent.
Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a game as a favorite this season. The Wildcats went 9-6 SU & 11-4 ATS in all games played away from home this season and were one of the best road teams in the country. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|03-18-23||Heat -2.5 v. Bulls||Top||99-113||Loss||-112||9 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5
The Miami Heat are getting healthy and playing up to their potential right now. They have gone 5-2 SU in their last five games overall with all five wins coming against playoff contenders. Now they have had the last two days off, so they are rested and ready to go in Chicago tonight.
The same cannot be said for the Bulls, who are coming off a double-OT 139-131 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. DeRozan played over 51 minutes, LaVine 46 and Vucevic 45 last night for the Bulls. They clearly won't have anything left in the tank for the Heat tonight.
Home-court advantage has meant little int his series as the road team is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 meetings with Chicago. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Chicago. The Bulls are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Heat Saturday.
|03-18-23||Auburn v. Houston UNDER 131.5||64-81||Loss||-110||43 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Auburn/Houston UNDER 131.5
Houston is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in the country in adjusted defense. They are going to have to rely on that defense today as they are likely to be without leading scorer Marcus Sasser (16.7 PPG), who re-aggravated a groin injury suffered in the AAC Tournament that forced him to miss the Memphis game.
Houston found itself in a dog fight with Northern Kentucky in a 63-52 win for 115 combined points in the opening round. Making matters worse for the Cougars is PG Jamal Shead (10.4 PPG) suffered an ankle injury late and was noticeably limping. Kelvin Samspon was very concerned about injuries to his two most important players, both guards who the offense runs through.
Points will be hard to come by for Houston today against an Auburn team that ranks 28th in adjusted defense and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed. But the Tigers don't have a great offense and are undersized at the guard positions. They will have to rely on defense to stay competitive in this game as well.
Houston is 12-4 UNDER in its last 16 Tournament games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cougars last four NCAA Tournament games. The UNDER is 43-20-1 in Cougars last 64 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|03-18-23||Magic +7 v. Clippers||113-108||Win||100||4 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the Los Angeles Clippers after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a win over the defending champion Clippers, which sets them up for a letdown spot. And they won't have their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he rests today, and they have been terrible without him this season.
Conversely, it's time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule. Three of the losses came by 7 points or less, including a 3-point loss at Phoenix as 8-point dogs last time out. The Magic are basically fully healthy right now and will give the Clippers a run for their money.
The Magic are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games. Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss. The Clippers are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on two days' rest. Orlando is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 trips to Los Angeles. Bet the Magic Saturday.
|03-18-23||Duke -2 v. Tennessee||Top||52-65||Loss||-110||39 h 35 m||Show|
25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -2
I've been fading Tennessee all season with a ton of success. But I think this is my favorite spot of the season to fade Tennessee despite all that success. Duke is rolling right now, and Tennessee is reeling. So getting Duke as only a 2-point favorite given all the factors in their favor is a nice value.
Tennessee has been overvalued due to ranking as one of the best defensive teams in the country. However, they are a terrible offensive team, especially now without starting PG Zakai Zeigler. They went on a big scoring drought Thursday and let Louisiana back in it, eventually winning 58-55 as 11.5-point favorites. And that was a good matchup for them. The Volunteers are now 6-7 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Duke is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. The Blue Devils have won 10 consecutive games while also going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning by 5 as 4-point dogs at UNC, beating Pitt by 27 as 5.5-point favorites, beating Miami by 7 as 2.5-point favorites, beating Virginia by 10 as 3-point favorites and crushing Oral Roberts by 23 as 5.5-point favorites.
Duke played the early game Thursday and made easy work of Oral Roberts, so they'll be fresh for this one. Short-handed Tennessee had to go to the wire with Louisiana in the late game Thursday, so they'll be far from fresh. I love taking the fresher team that played the early game in the Round of 32. They got to scout Tennessee in the late game while watching from the stands which is a hidden advantage.
Rick Barnes is 2-14 ATS his his last 16 NCAA Tournament games. The Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. Barnes continues coming up short in these situations time and time again, and he has his hands full with this short-handed Vols team this year going up against a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Bet Duke Saturday.
|03-18-23||Furman +6 v. San Diego State||Top||52-75||Loss||-110||36 h 19 m||Show|
20* Furman/San Diego State CBS No-Brainer on Furman +6
The Furman Paladins have that confident feeling after stealing victory from the jaws of defeat against Virginia. They were down 4 with seconds remaining, hit two free throws and got a steal and a game-winning 3-pointer. They won despite their best player Mike Bothwell (17.8 PPG) fouling out and playing only 20 minutes while being in foul trouble the entire game. I love the confidence they'll be playing with going into this game against a very similar San Diego State team, and having Bothwell for 40 minutes will make them even better.
I also love fading Mountain West teams, and I faded all four already in the NCAA Tournament and went 3-1 ATS. It would have been 4-0 ATS if not for a bullshit foul call on Charleston +5.5 with 0.7 seconds left that allowed San Diego State to make both free throws and win by 6. I'm not bitter or anything.
Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountain West is now 1-13 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games with the lone cover being that San Diego State miracle on Thursday. It's crazy how lucky this SDSU team has been in close games this season as they simply aren't very good. The Aztecs now have a whopping 10 wins by 6 points or less this season, and I think this game will go down to the wire as well, so getting 6 points is a nice value.
One hidden factor here that goes against the Aztecs is that this is a 12:10 EST start time, which makes it a 9:10 AM body clock game for San Diego State. They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and I think it will be a shock to the system for them. I think the Aztecs will start slow and struggle to recover to beat Furman, let alone beat them by 6-plus points. Bet Furman Saturday.
|03-17-23||Florida Atlantic v. Memphis -2||66-65||Loss||-110||95 h 36 m||Show|
15* FAU/Memphis TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -2
I was pissed when I found out Memphis and Florida Atlantic were matched up in the opening round. I was going to take both to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament because I think very highly of both. I just so happen to think a lot more highly of Memphis, and thus I think there's value on the Tigers as 2-point favorites.
Nobody is playing better than Memphis heading into the NCAA Tournament. They avenged two regular season losses to Tulane with a an emphatic 94-54 win over the Green Wave in the AAC Tournament semifinals. They followed it up by avenging a pair of close losses to Houston in the regular season with a 75-65 win in the AAC Championship Game. They controlled that game from start to finish and it was never close, and most believe Houston is the best team in the country right alongside Alabama.
The Tigers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing up to their potential. They have one of the best guards in the country in Kendric Davis (22.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 2.0 SPG). DeAndre Williams (17.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is a great compliment to Davis. And they have a bunch of key role players that play their roles well as Penny Hardaway has this team hitting on all cylinders going into the Big Dance. Remember, Memphis gave Gonzaga all they wanted in the second round last season and nearly pulled off the upset.
Florida Atlantic put together an impressive 31-3 season. But they did lose by 13 to Ole Miss in the non-conference, and my biggest problem with the Owls is that they played a very easy schedule. They had narrow wins by 4 of Louisiana Tech without their best player and Middle Tennessee by 3 in two of their last four games as well. They rank 61st in the luck factor, which means they had a ton of close wins throughout the season. They went 7-1 in games decided by 4 points or fewer.
Memphis is battle-tested and ready for this moment, while the bright lights may be too big for the Owls, who will be making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002 and this will be just their second appearance ever. Memphis is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games in March. The Tigers are 32-8 ATS in their last 40 games following an upset conference win. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games this season. Bet Memphis Friday.
|03-17-23||Grizzlies v. Spurs +9||Top||126-120||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9
The San Antonio Spurs are 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall and not tanking. They were very impressive in their last two games crushing Orlando 132-114 as 5-point home dogs and taking the Dallas Mavericks to OT as 5-point home dogs the next night.
The Spurs are as healthy as they have been in a long time and have each of their top seven scorers expected to play tonight. They are good enough to give the Memphis Grizzlies a run for their money tonight and won't be taking it easy on their division rivals.
Memphis has no business being a 9-point road favorites over the Spurs without JA Morant, Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. The Grizzlies are coming off a 119-138 loss at Miami and are now 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Dallas, which was playing without Doncic, Irving and Wood.
The Grizzlies are now 13-22 SU & 12-21-2 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to go on the road and win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Grizzlies, all of which were decided by 8 points or less. Bet the Spurs Friday.
|03-17-23||Drake +2.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||56-63||Loss||-110||93 h 48 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +2.5
The Drake Bulldogs are a veteran team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. They won a deep Missouri Valley conference this season with a blowout 77-51 win over Bradley on May 5th. They've had nearly two weeks to rest up and sharpen their system and are a very dangerous out for anyone in the NCAA Tournament.
Sophomore Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is the coach's son and does it all for this team. He is surrounded by four senior starters including PG Roman Penn (12.6 PPG, 5.4 APG), who played for Siena in 2017 and has been around forever. These guys have been through a ton of wars together and have as good of chemistry as any team in the NCAA Tournament.
The ACC was way down this season, and I think Miami is overrated. The Hurricanes are a great offensive team but a terrible defensive team, ranking 131st in the country in adjusted defense. Forward Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament and left the game early. He is unlikely to play, and even if he does he won't be near 100%. That's a big blow to the Hurricanes, especially defensively where they were already lacking.
Drake is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the country. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a pair of 2-point wins over Pitt and Wake Forest and an upset home loss to Florida State as 13-point favorites. Bet Drake Friday.
|03-17-23||Warriors v. Hawks -4||119-127||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4
The Golden State Warriors are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games with seven losses by 8 points or more. They have rarely even been competitive on the highway. The Warriors are now 7-27 SU & 9-25 ATS on the road this season.
I cashed against them with a 25* on the Clippers -2 on Wednesday and they won and covered despite 50 points from Steph Curry. You could see how dejected Curry was doing so much for this team, yet it still isn't enough. Now Curry is questionable to play tonight with a thumb injury, and the Warriors will be without both Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, who is serving a suspension.
The Atlanta Hawks are fully healthy and rested and highly motivated for a victory coming off consecutive losses to the Celtics and Timberwolves. They have had the last three days off, so they couldn't possibly be any more fresh. Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 9th game in 16 days. The spot and the injuries really favor the home team in this one. Bet the Hawks Friday.
|03-17-23||Grand Canyon v. Gonzaga OVER 155.5||70-82||Loss||-110||92 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grand Canyon/Gonzaga OVER 155.5
This game screams shootout. Gonzaga ranks 1st in the country in adjusted offense this season but has taken a big step back defensively, ranking 76th in adjusted defense. That's why they are only a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they're used to challenging for a No. 1 seed.
Gonzaga is really firing on all cylinders offensively to close out the season scoring 77 or more points in nine consecutive games. They even scored 77 against St. Mary's twice, and that's very hard to do as the Gaels play slow and play elite defense. The Bulldogs scored 84 or more points in each of their other seven games, and they will likely hang 90-plus on Grand Canyon in this one.
Grand Canyon ranks 53rd in adjusted offense but just 198th in adjusted defense. They are an elite 3-point shooting team ranking 23rd in 3-point percentage. They shoot 38.4% from 3 as a team. Grand Canyon has scored at least 78 points in five of their last six games to close out the season and should be able to reach that number in this one.
Amazingly, the OVER is 22-3 in Grand Canyon's last 25 games overall. The OVER is 8-2 in Gonzaga's last 10 games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Antelopes last six neutral site games. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|03-17-23||UC-Santa Barbara v. Baylor -10.5||Top||56-74||Win||100||86 h 24 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them. They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.
A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG). But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State could actually be a good thing because it gives his ankle even more time to rest. Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.
UC-Santa Barbara won the Big West, which is one of the worst conferences in the country. They played a very easy non-conference schedule and even lost to Northern Arizona by 9 as 9-point favorites and Duquesne by 11 as 3.5-point dogs. This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date.
We'll 'sell high' on the Guachos, who are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall against Big West competition. Scott Drew is one of the best head coaches in the country, and the Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. The Bears bounce back in blowout fashion in the opening round. Bet Baylor Friday.
|03-17-23||USC v. Michigan State UNDER 137.5||62-72||Win||100||85 h 8 m||Show|
15* USC/Michigan State CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5
Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Spartans rank 304th in adjusted tempo and 40th in adjusted defense. They play another very good defensive team in the USC Trojans that rank 49th in adjusted defense and 9th in effective field goal percentage allowed. This is an early start 12:15 EST start time Friday and will be played at a snail's pace as the Spartans dictate the tempo.
Both teams have trended over the total to close out the season, which has inflated this total and has provided us with a ton of line value on the UNDER. USC played another Big Ten team in Wisconsin in the non-conference and lost 64-59 for just 123 combined points.
USC is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. The UNDER is 9-3 in Trojans last 12 neutral site games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Spartans last eight games following a loss. They lost 58-68 to Ohio State for 126 combined points in the Big Ten Tournament. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|03-16-23||Northern Kentucky v. Houston -19||52-63||Loss||-110||70 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston -19
Houston would be a bigger favorite over Northern Kentucky had they won the AAC Tournament. But their best player in Marcus Sasser (17.1 PPG) sat out the championship game against Memphis, and they lost to a Memphis team that just seems to have their number and matches up well with them. Northern Kentucky does not match up well with Houston.
The Cougars should make easy work of NKU here thanks to a matchup advantage that shows them as one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country up against one of the worst defensive rebounding teams. NKU plays a zone defense that gives up a ton of offensive rebounds. Houston is 4th in offensive rebounding rate while NKU is 333rd in allowing offensive rebounds.
The Cougars are likely to get Sasser back for this game, but it's not going to matter. Northern Kentucky lost by 22 to Kent State, by 21 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 13 to Toledo, by 21 to Washington State and by 15 to Florida Atlantic in the non-conference. Houston has a way of blowing out overmatched competition. The Horizon League is way down this season and Horizon League teams have not fared well at all in recent NCAA Tournaments.
Northern Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. Houston is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game. Houston is 49-17-1 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss. I think it was a good thing the Cougars lost to Memphis in the AAC Championship Game because it will have them refocused and not taking this game lightly. Bet Houston Thursday.
|03-16-23||Thunder +6 v. Raptors||Top||111-128||Loss||-110||18 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now trying to make the playoffs. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are now one win away from getting back to .500 for the season. Amazingly, all six of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they are simply blowing teams out including playoff contenders like the Jazz (twice), Warriors, Pelicans and Nets.
The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. They are getting too much respect from a blowout win over the Nuggets last time out. But they wanted revenge on Denver after losing to them on the road the week prior, and they were coming in on three days' rest. That now makes this a bit of a letdown spot for the Raptors after getting their revenge against the Nuggets, who have the best record in the West but aren't playing well at all right now as they have been just going through the motions.
Oklahoma City is a 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. Atlantic Division opponents. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS following two straight wins by 10 points or more this season. Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win by 15 points or more as an underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Oklahoma City tonight. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|03-16-23||Boise State v. Northwestern -120||Top||67-75||Win||100||79 h 28 m||Show|
20* Boise State/Northwestern TruTV No-Brainer on Northwestern ML -120
Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016. They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.
Boise State is not very athletic at all and won't give Northwestern problems as they sometimes struggle with the more athletic teams. This is a game the Wildcats can handle, and I expect them to do just that and make easy work of yet another Mountain West opponent.
Northwestern went 9-2 in the non-conference with their two losses coming to Auburn (by 1) and Pittsburgh, which are two NCAA Tournament teams. Boise State lost to South Dakota State, Charlotte and Santa Clara in the non-conference, which is a really bad look as none of those teams made the NCAA Tournament.
Northwestern is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three games this season. Plays on any team (Northwestern) - a Power 5 team playing a mid-major team, off an upset conference loss as a favorite are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS since 1997. The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bet Northwestern Thursday.
|03-16-23||College of Charleston +5.5 v. San Diego State||Top||57-63||Loss||-110||75 h 17 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on College of Charleston +5.5
Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016. They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.
Admittedly, San Diego State is the best of the four Mountain West teams this season. But they are also the biggest favorites of the four, and I think there is value in fading the Aztecs here. They went 27-6 this season and dominated MWC competition, but didn't fare so well when they stepped up in competition outside the conference.
They lost by 17 to Arizona on a neutral, by 4 to Arkansas on a neutral and by 7 to St. Mary's on a neutral. They also only beat BYU by 7 as 11-point home favorites. The Aztecs rank 73rd in the country in the luck factor and won a ton of close games this season. They had nine wins by 6 points or less this season.
College of Charleston went 31-3 this season with only one loss by more than 4 points all season, which came at UNC in their second game of the season. That makes for a 33-1 system backing the Cougars pertaining to this 5.5-point spread. They beat the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, Virginia Tech and Kent State in the non-conference to prove themselves. They are an elite offensive team averaging 80.8 points per game and are better than they get credit for defensively, ranking 71st in adjusted defense while yielding 67.4 points per game.
San Diego State is 1-7 ATS following four or more consecutive wins this season. Charleston is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss. This is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs having to travel to Florida to play an early start time. The Cougars will will have the home-court advantage. Bet College of Charleston Thursday.
|03-16-23||Utah State v. Missouri +100||Top||65-76||Win||100||74 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri ML +100
Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016. They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.
Utah State should not be favored over Missouri. The Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season as head coach Dennis Gates is doing a tremendous job in his first season. The Tigers are 24-9 and have won five of their last six coming in with their lone loss coming to Alabama in the SEC Tournament. They gave Alabama a fight for 40 minutes, too.
Missouri has the better athletes, which Utah State struggles with. That showed up when they lost all three meetings with San Diego State this season. They beat the less athletic teams in the MWC like Boise State. Missouri is an elite offensive team with one of the best players in the country in Kobe Brown. They rank 10th in adjusted offense and will score at will on this slow (foot speed) Utah State defense.
Utah State is 0-8 SU in its last eight NCAA Tournament games and hasn't won a game in the Big Dance since 2001. The Aggies are 1-18 SU in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as well. This is a 11:40 AM body clock game for Utah State, something they are not used. Bet Missouri on the Money Line Thursday.
|03-16-23||Furman +5.5 v. Virginia||68-67||Win||100||73 h 33 m||Show|
15* Furman/Virginia TruTV Early ANNIHILATOR on Furman +5.5
Furman is a finesse team that is elite on offense and just average on defense. It would have been a bad matchup for them if they got paired with a big-time athletic team. But this is a perfect matchup for them against a Virginia team that lacks athletes and plays at a snail's pace.
Furman ranks 33rd in adjusted offense, 10th in effective field goal percentage and 1st in 2-point percentage. They are an extremely efficient team. They went 27-7 this season with only three losses all season by more than 5 points. They took a similar Penn State team to the wire in a 5-point loss on a neutral.
Virginia has not been impressive at all here down the stretch. They have lost three of their last seven, getting upset by 15 at Boston College as 9-point favorites, losing by 8 at UNC and losing by 10 to Duke in the ACC Championship. They just lost Ben Vander Plas (7.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) to a season-ending injury. He averages 25 minutes per game and is a key cog on this team, so it's a big loss for them. They lost him going into the ACC Tournament.
Furman is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Paladins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Bet Furman Wednesday.
|03-15-23||Warriors v. Clippers -2||Top||126-134||Win||100||19 h 29 m||Show|
25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -2
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They are quickly forming chemistry with Westbrook, George and Leonard and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point at Sacramento. They beat three playoff contenders in Toronto, Memphis and New York at home.
Now the Clippers have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. They are rested and ready to go and primed for a big effort tonight against the defending champion Warriors. I think this number is way short considering the favorable spot for the Clippers tonight.
I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Warriors coming off two hard-fought home wins over the Bucks and Suns. It's a letdown spot off those two huge victories. The Warriors will now be playing their 7th game in 13 days and are still without Andrew Wiggins and others. But with Steph Curry back, they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers.
The problem all season for the Warriors has been their home/road splits. They have been a dominant home team, but the reason they are just 36-33 on the season after winning the title last year is because they are just 7-26 SU & 9-24 ATS on the road. They haven't been able to correct their road woes all season even when Curry was healthy.
The Warriors are 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games losing outright to Minnesota as favorites, losing by 17 at Denver, by 3 as 2.5-point dogs at Portland, by 10 to the Clippers, by 13 to the Lakers, by 8 to the Lakers, by 9 to the Thunder and by 21 to the Grizzlies. They've rarely even been competitive in these road losses, and they won't be tonight given the favorable spot for Los Angeles. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|03-15-23||Arizona State -2 v. Nevada||Top||98-73||Win||100||57 h 4 m||Show|
20* Arizona State/Nevada First Four No-Brainer on Arizona State -2
Mountain West teams are 1-11 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016. They are also 0-9 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.
The most shocking of the four was Nevada, which had no business making the big dance after closing the season going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their final three games. They got upset by 9 as 5-point favorites at Wyoming, upset by 2 as 8-point home favorites to UNLV and upset by 4 as 4-point favorites in the MWC Tournament opener to San Jose State. That loss certainly should have knocked them out of the big dance and allowed one of Rutgers, Clemson or Oklahoma State to get in.
But we'll take advantage on the Wolf Pack's good fortune here and fade them in the First Four. They take on Arizona State from the Pac-12, a team that came up with two huge victories in the Pac-12 Tournament to punch their ticket. They also upset Arizona on the road late in the season to get in and are playing much better than Nevada right now.
Arizona State was impressive in the non-conference picking up wins over VCU, Michigan, and Creighton. Nevada lost to Kansas State by 9, Loyola-Marymount by 12 and Oregon by 13 in the non-conference. So they lost to a worse Pac-12 team than ASU in Oregon in blowout fashion. ASU beat Oregon by 17 on the road and lost by 5 to them at home to compare.
Arizona State is 6-0 ATS in road games following a loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. Bet Arizona State Monday.
|03-15-23||Lakers v. Rockets +4||110-114||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4
The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-108 win in New Orleans last night. Now they have to travel to Houston to take on the pesky Rockets, and they won't have Anthony Davis for this one after he led the way with 35 points against the Pelicans last night. They will be without both LeBron and Davis now and can't be trusted without these two.
The Rockets have quietly gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are as healthy as they have been all season. That includes a pair of blowout wins over the Spurs, an upset win over the Celtics as 12.5-point dogs, and they took both the Pacers (OT) and the Bulls to the wire. They had three players score at least 20 points in the win over the Celtics last time out and are a very talented, young team that is not tanking.
The Rockets are 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with the Lakers and were competitive in all six that were decided by 10 points or fewer. The Lakers are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games following a road win. Los Angeles is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games following a win by 10 points or more. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
|03-14-23||Bucks v. Suns UNDER 233||Top||116-104||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 233
Both the Bucks and Suns will be playing on tired legs tonight after both playing in shootouts last night against the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors, respectively. I think it will impact their offense more than their defense and neither team will be looking to push the tempo much.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams just met on February 26th with the Bucks winning 104-101 for just 205 combined points with a 231.5-point total. Now the books have set the total even higher for the rematch here, and there's a ton of value on the UNDER given the circumstances.
Milwaukee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 road games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Phoenix is 13-3 UNDER when revenging a road loss this season. The Bucks are 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing against a team that wins 51-60% of its games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-14-23||Mississippi State v. Pittsburgh +2.5||59-60||Win||100||24 h 60 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Pittsburgh First Four ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2.5
It has been a bad look for Mississippi State to close out the season and they were fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament. They are 2-2 SU but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. The two wins weren't impressive as they beat lowly South Carolina by 6 as 15.5-point favorites and Florida by 1 in OT as 5-point favorites on a neutral.
That was a Florida team that didn't have their best player in Colin Castleton and have been struggling without him. They also lost at Vanderbilt by 5 as 3.5-point favorites against a Commodores team that was also missing their best player in Liam Robbins. Then the Bulldogs took a step up in class in the SEC Tournament and were blasted by 23 by Alabama as 8-point dogs.
Pittsburgh's last three losses have all coming on the road with two in the role of underdog against Miami and Duke. The Panthers knocked off what has been a red hot Georgia Tech team by 8 in the ACC Tournament prior to losing to Duke, which is the hottest team in the ACC. I think they come in undervalue here after that loss to Duke and should not be the underdogs.
Of course, Pittsburgh has been undervalued all season going 22-10-1 ATS in all games this season. The Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. I also think the Panthers have the coaching edge here with Jeff Capel over Chris Jans. They will have more fans here with the short trip from Pittsburgh to Dayton. And they have an extra day of rest after last playing on Thursday while Mississippi State last played on Friday. Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|03-14-23||Villanova v. Liberty UNDER 137.5||57-62||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova/Liberty UNDER 137.5
This NIT game between Villanova and Liberty will be played at a snail's pace tonight. Villanova ranks 336th in adjusted tempo while Liberty ranks 318th out of 363 teams. That's going to make it difficult for these teams to combine to top this 137.5-point total tonight.
There's a chance Villanova could be without both Justin Moore (13.6 PPG) and Cam Whitmore (12.6 PPG), who are both questionable after suffering injuries in the Big East Tournament. I wouldn't be surprised at all so see both sit as they are disappointed to be playing in the NIT after coming up just short of making the NCAA Tournament.
Liberty played a couple teams similar to Villanova in the non-conference. They lost 52-66 to Northwestern for just 118 combined points. They beat Bradley 55-44 for 101 combined points. Northwestern ranks 305th in adjusted tempo while Bradley ranks 289th.
Liberty is 8-2 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games this season. Liberty is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games with a total set of 135 to 139.5. The UNDER is 6-0 in Villanova's last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 9-2 in Flames last 11 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 in Flames last six games following a SU loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-14-23||Magic -5 v. Spurs||Top||114-132||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -5
The Orlando Magic continue to show up on a nightly basis and are a young team looking to improve to close out the season. They are also fully healthy right now, and they have been a dangerous team when that has been the case.
The San Antonio Spurs are 4-24 SU in their last 28 games overall. They are also 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Amazingly, each of San Antonio's last 24 losses during this stretch have come by 5 points or more, and 17 of their last 21 losses have come by double-digits.
The Spurs have rarely even been competitive largely due to all the injuries they are dealing with right now which could be partially due to tanking. The Spurs are without Tre Jones, Romeo Langford, Malaki Brandham and Jeremy Sochan right now and they could be without Keldon Johnson, who is questionable. That's three of their top four scorers. Bet the Magic Tuesday.
|03-14-23||Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 224||120-104||Push||0||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hornets UNDER 224
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Cavaliers and Hornets. Cleveland won 114-108 in the first meeting for 222 combined points with a 221-point total. Now the books have adjusted this number up 3 points, and there's clearly value with the UNDER in the rematch.
Charlotte has been an UNDER team since losing La'Melo Ball to injury. Indeed, the UNDER is 9-2 in Hornets last 11 games overall. The Hornets and their opponents have actually combined for 223 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games, making for an 8-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224-point total.
Four of the last five meetings between Charlotte and Cleveland have seen 223 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 16-5 in Hornets last 21 games overall. The UNDER is 35-17-1 in Hornets last 53 home games. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Charlotte. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-13-23||Jazz +8 v. Heat||Top||115-119||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +8
The Utah Jazz will be completing their five-game road trip here Monday and want to end it with another victory. They have four days off after this, so they will be 'all in' tonight for a win. They are 3-0 ATS in their last three road games only losing by 4 at Dallas as 10-point dogs, upsetting Orlando by 7 as 4-point dogs and topping Charlotte by 8 as 1-point favorites.
I don't think Miami can be trusted to lay this kind of number with the way they are playing right now. The Heat are just 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 gams overall with their four wins coming by 2, 8, 2 and 4 points. In fact, Miami hasn't won any of its last 23 games by more than 8 points making for a 23-0 system backing the Jazz pertaining to this 8-point spread. Each of Miami's last 11 wins have come by 8 points or fewer.
The Heat are also a tired team right now playing their 7th game in 11 days. They are coming off an OT loss at Orlando to boot. They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz, which will make it hard for them to put them away by margin.
Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Utah is 24-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-12-23||Knicks v. Lakers -2.5||112-108||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
The Los Angeles Lakers still have plenty of talent to win without LeBron James and are proving it. They have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall including two upset wins over Golden State, an upset win at Dallas, an upset win at OKC and two upset home wins over Memphis and Toronto coming in.
Anthony Davis is playing like a superstar, scoring at least 28 points in five of his last six games. De'Angelo Russell just returned from injury for the Lakers last time out and scored 28 points with 9 assists in a 122-112 victory over Toronto. Beasley, Schroder, Walker IV, Hachimura, Reaves, Vanderbilt and Brown Jr. all have key roles on this team and are playing them well.
While the Lakers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 17 days after a 95-106 loss to the Clippers yesterday. The Knicks are a contender in the East is due to the addition of Jalen Brunson (23.8 PPG, 6.1 APG), one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Unfortunately for the Knicks, Brunson suffered a foot injury two games back and sat out yesterday. He's unlikely to return tonight.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Lakers) - after winning five or six of their last seven games, winning between 40-49% of their games on the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|03-12-23||Blazers v. Pelicans||Top||110-127||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers PK
The Portland Trail Blazers just got two starters back in Anfernee Simons (21.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jusuf Nurkic (13.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG) for the stretch run. They took the 76ers to the brink last time out losing 119-120 as 8.5-point road dogs. I think they come back here and get a win at short-handed New Orleans.
The Pelicans are banged up right now and struggling to win games, going 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are without Zion, Nance and Alvarado and could be without Brandon Ingram again tonight. They didn't have him last night in their 96-110 upset home loss to the Thunder, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here and won't have much left in the tank for Portland. Bet the Blazers Sunday.
|03-12-23||Memphis +6 v. Houston||Top||75-65||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
20* Memphis/Houston AAC No-Brainer on Memphis +6
The Memphis Tigers are the one team that have pushed the Houston Cougars to the brink in the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with only one loss by double-digits during this stretch.
They lost by 8 at Houston and by 2 at home to the Cougars in their two meetings this season, including a buzzer-beater at home on March 5th just a week ago today. They want revenge from that loss, and I think there's a ton of value getting them at +6 here in the 3rd and final meeting in a game that will likely be decided in the final seconds again.
Memphis is fresh and ready to go after a 94-54 blowout victory over Tulane yesterday. They avenged two regular season losses to the Green Wave and are in the same situation here again today. Houston may be without leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.0 PPG, 61.1% FG's), who suffered a groin injury in the first half against Cincinnati yesterday and likely will rest for the NCAA Tournament. Bet Memphis Sunday.
|03-11-23||Bulls v. Rockets OVER 224||119-111||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Rockets OVER 224
Both the Chicago Bulls and Houston Rockets are fully healthy right now and this game should be a shootout as a result. The Bulls are clocking on offense scoring 117 or more points in three of their last four games with the OVER going 3-1. The Rockets have gone for 232 or more combined points in five of their last seen games overall with the OVER going 5-2 during this stretch.
This has been a very high-scoring series with the OVER going 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 251, 251 and 231 points. The previous two meetings saw 220 and 245 combined points as well with the OVER going 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|03-11-23||Celtics -4.5 v. Hawks||Top||134-125||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5
It's time to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall going through one of their worst stretches of the season. It has had to do with a tough schedule coupled with some injuries to key players.
But the Celtics are now healthy, rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest. The only key player they are missing is Robert Williams, who they have gotten used to playing without the past two seasons. They got right in a 115-93 victory over Portland on Wednesday and now I'm expecting another blowout in their favor tonight.
This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a hard-fought 114-107 win over the Washington Wizards last night. They have played four consecutive games that went to the wire and are simply out of gas right now. They won't have much left in the tank for the Celtics tonight.
Boston is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Atlanta winnings by 10, 9 and 25 points. The Hawks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more. The Celtics are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Atlanta is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following an ATS win. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|03-11-23||Kent State +1 v. Toledo||93-78||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State +1
The Kent State Golden Flashes have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season. They have gone 27-6 SU & 20-10-1 ATS this season and have been the best team in the MAC this season. They are being disrespected here again as underdogs to Toledo in the MAC Championship Game.
Toledo has had to work a lot harder than Kent State has the past two days to beat Miami Ohio and Ohio. Kent State crushed Northern Illinois by 19 before being in control the entire game against Akron and settling for a 79-73 victory. All five starters played at least 29 minutes yesterday for Toledo, while two starters played 22 minutes or fewer for Kent State as they are the deeper team and can handle this 3rd game in 3 days better than Toledo.
Kent State is 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Toledo. That includes a 75-63 home win over Toledo as 4-point favorites in their lone meeting this season. It should be more of the same in the rematch here. The Golden Flashes are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win. Bet Kent State Saturday.
|03-11-23||Heat v. Magic +2.5||Top||114-126||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +2.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to try and take down their hated Florida rivals in the Miami Heat.
But this is more of a fade against Miami than it is a play on Orlando. This is a terrible spot for the Heat. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a double-digit comeback victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, getting revenge from a loss to the Cavaliers the game prior. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Heat, which is about as difficult a situation as there is in the NBA.
Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following three consecutive ATS losses. Miami is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win. The Heat are 10-27-2 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU win. The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Bet the Magic Saturday.
|03-11-23||Texas v. Kansas -2||Top||76-56||Loss||-110||8 h 10 m||Show|
20* Texas/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas -2
The Kansas Jayhawks won the Big 12 regular season title and now look to capture the sweep by winning the conference tournament. They are a better team than Texas and should be more than 2-point favorites considering this is essentially a home game for them being played in Kansas City.
Kansas also wants revenge from a 59-75 loss at Texas in the regular season finale. I was on Texas in that game because I knew the Jayhawks were in a letdown spot after clinching the Big 12 title the game prior. They indeed let down and weren't competitive. They will be fully locked in for this one with another title on the line, and their best effort is better that of Texas.
Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference tournament games. Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins. The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season. Bet Kansas Saturday.
|03-11-23||Utah State v. San Diego State -1.5||57-62||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* Utah State/San Diego State MWC ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1.5
Utah State played the final game on the board last night that finished around midnight. The Aggies needed a double-digit comeback to beat Boise State. Now they have to come back and play at 3:00 local time this afternoon and won't have much left in the tank for San Diego State.
Meanwhile, the San Diego State Aztecs made easy work of the San Jose State Spartans in a 64-49 victory the game prior. They have had extra time to rest and this early start time won't be an issue for them.
San Diego State swept the season series winning 85-75 at home and 63-61 on the road, so they clearly match up well with Utah State. San Diego State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game. Utah State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|03-11-23||Penn State v. Indiana -3||Top||77-73||Loss||-115||6 h 2 m||Show|
20* Penn State/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana -3
Penn State's miraculous run of four consecutive victories by 3 points or less comes to an end today. It's just too tall of a task for them to keep this up today playing their 4th game in 4 days and coming off an OT game against Northwestern yesterday to boot. They run out of gas and get blown out of the building by the Indiana Hoosiers today.
This is a step up in class for Penn State as the Hoosiers have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall including a pair of wins over Purdue. Indiana wants revenge from a 66-85 loss at Penn State prior to this 12-4 run. The Nittany Lions shot 18-of-31 (58.1%) from 3-point range in that game, and that's clearly not going to happen again, especially on their tired legs.
Penn State is 0-6 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games coming in. Indiana is 6-0 ATS in neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last three seasons. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Hoosiers. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|03-11-23||Ohio State v. Purdue -7.5||66-80||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Purdue -7.5
Ohio State's impressive Big Ten Tournament run comes to an end in blowout fashion today. The Buckeyes will be playing their 4th game in 4 days and they are expected to be without their best player in Brice Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 48.1% FG's, 41.5% 3-pointers) today.
It's just too tall of a task for the Buckeyes to try and win 4 games in 4 days against a healthy, rested Purdue team that earned a double-bye and will be playing just their 2nd game in 2 days. The Boilermakers crushed the Buckeyes in their most recent meeting, an 82-55 home victory as 12-point favorites. They outrebounded Ohio State 44-21 in that game and it will be more of the same here. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|03-11-23||Missouri +10 v. Alabama||61-72||Loss||-110||3 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri +10
The Missouri Tigers are 24-8 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country. They come in playing their best basketball with five consecutive victories including an upset 79-71 win over Tennessee yesterday. Now I expect them to give Alabama a run for their money today.
Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall and getting too much respect for a blowout win over Mississippi State yesterday. That was a Mississippi State team coming off a hard-fought OT win over Florida the day prior while Alabama came in rested. The Crimson Tide took advantage of a tired Bulldogs team.
I also think this number is inflated due to Alabama's 85-64 win at Missouri as 5.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. That was the worst performance of the season for the Tigers as they shot just 3-of-28 (10.7%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again as Missouri averaged 9 made 3-pointers per game at a 36.3% clip, one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.
The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Bet Missouri Saturday.
|03-10-23||Clemson +3.5 v. Virginia||56-76||Loss||-110||13 h 7 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +3.5
The Clemson Tigers are still somehow on the bubble despite going 23-9 this season including 15-6 in the ACC. These players feel disrespected and are taking out their frustration here to close out the season.
The Tigers are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall beating Syracuse by 18 as 4.5-point favorites, NC State by 25 as 6-point road dogs, Notre Dame by 23 as 10-point favorites and NC State by 26 as 1-point favorites. They got to rest their starters late yesterday due to the blowout, while Virginia was in a 2-point game late against UNC but pulled away for a 68-59 victory.
Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 57-64 road loss at Virginia on February 28th in their lone defeat during this stretch. The Tigers get the Cavaliers on a neutral this time around in what will feel like a home game for them played in Greensboro, NC.
Clemson is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3.5 to -3.5 this season. The Tigers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Bet Clemson Friday.
|03-10-23||Maryland v. Indiana||Top||60-70||Win||100||13 h 45 m||Show|
20* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK
The Indiana Hoosiers have the rest advantage today after receiving a double-bye into the quarterfinals. They are rested and ready to go against a Maryland team that just played yesterday in a 70-54 win over lowly Minnesota, which was tired from the day prior beating Nebraska and they took advantage.
This will now be a huge step up in class for the Terrapins. The Hoosiers want revenge from a 55-66 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season. But if you remember that was a terrible spot for Indiana. They had Purdue on deck and were looking ahead to that game, and they wound up beating the Boilermakers in that game. They also beat Purdue on the road on February 25th in the rematch to flash their potential.
This will feel like a home game for the Hoosiers with thousands of fans making the short trip to Chicago. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Indiana Friday.
|03-10-23||Cavs v. Heat UNDER 215||Top||115-119||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 215
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Cavaliers and Heat. Cleveland won the first two days ago 104-100 for just 204 combined points. Both teams actually shot well in that game too but it was played at a snail's pace.
Cleveland shot 48.7% from the field while Miami shot 50% from the field, and it's unlikely both teams will shoot that well again. What is likely is that both teams will bring defensive intensity and it will be played at a snail's pace again. Cleveland (30th) ranks dead last in pace this season while Miami ranks 28th. Cleveland ranks 1st in defensive efficiency while Miami ranks 7th.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with Cleveland and Miami combining for 204 or fewer points in five of those six meetings. They have averaged just 203 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than this 215-point total.
Darius Garland (22.0 PPG, 7.9 APG) missed shootaround this morning and this total has since been bet down since I released it a couple hours prior to shootaround. That's an added bonus for us if he doesn't play, and I still like this UNDER either way. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|03-10-23||Cavs v. Heat +105||115-119||Win||105||11 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat ML +105
The Miami Heat want revenge from a 104-100 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers just two days ago on Wednesday. They don't have to wait long for revenge and get them at home again here Friday. I like their chances of getting that revenge considering they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Cavaliers.
Cleveland has been a below-average team when on the road this season going 14-19 SU & 14-17-2 ATS. The Heat are 21-13 at home and will be extra motivated here given the situation. Look for Jimmy Butler and company to come up big as the Heat are as healthy as they have been in a long time.
Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after winning four of its last five games coming in. Darius Garland (22.0 PPG, 7.9 APG) missed shootaround this morning and Miami has become the favorite since I released this play a couple hours prior to shootaround. That's an added bonus for us if he doesn't play, and I still like Miami either way. Bet the Heat on the Money Line Friday.
|03-10-23||Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 238.5||Top||114-107||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 238.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will not only be the 2nd consecutive meeting between the Wizards and Hawks, it will also be their 3rd meeting in 11 days. So it's safe to say these two teams are familiar with one another.
After combining for 235 points in their first meeting on February 28th, they came back for 242 combined points in their last meeting on March 8th just two days ago. But they both shot lights out with the Wizards shooting 56.6% from the field and the Hawks 52.9%. Both teams aren't going to shoot that well again, and thus it should stay UNDER this 238.5-point total.
The Hawks and Wizards have now combined for 236 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings and eight of their last 10 meetings. So this 238.5-point total has been tough for them to get to, and it certainly will be tough tonight given the familiarity which should favor the defenses. Last game was played at a snail's pace and this one will be played even slower due to the familiarity. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|03-10-23||Arkansas v. Texas A&M -110||61-67||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* Arkansas/Texas A&M SEC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M PK
Arkansas was in a dog fight with Auburn yesterday in a 76-73 victory. Meanwhile, Texas A&M earned a double-bye into the quarterfinals and is rested and ready to go. And with that rest advantage among other factors, the Aggies should be favored here over Arkansas.
Texas A&M is an elite defensive team that forces its opponents to make 3-pointers to beat them. Well, Arkansas is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country averaging just 5 makes per game at a 32% clip. That makes this a bad matchup for the Razorbacks, who like to attack the rim exclusively.
Texas A&M beat Arkansas 62-56 at home in their most recent meeting. The Razorbacks shot just 44% overall and 5-of-16 (31.2%) from 3. The Aggies won that game despite shooting only 35.2% from the field themselves.
The Aggies are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That continues to be the case in their SEC Tournament opener as they should be favored here. Bet Texas A&M Friday.
|03-10-23||Connecticut -3.5 v. Marquette||Top||68-70||Loss||-110||10 h 55 m||Show|
20* UConn/Marquette Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5
The UConn Huskies have been one of the best teams in the country when playing at their best. They showed that with their 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS start to the season, and they have showed it down the stretch here going 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 at Creighton. All nine wins during this stretch came by 6 points or more.
Marquette is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall and has been overvalued due to winning the Big East regular season title. They just beat St. John's by 2 and 2 points in their last two games coming in and only beat DePaul by 6 at home four games back. They had to go to OT to beat St. John's yesterday, which will add to their fatigue playing for a 2nd consecutive day.
UConn did lost the first meeting 76-82 at Marquette back when they weren't playing their best on January 11th. But they got their revenge in blowout fashion over the Golden Eagles, winning 87-72 at home on February 7th. They had a 48-24 rebounding advantage in that game and have a big advantage on the boards in this matchup. It should be more of the same in the 3rd and final meeting here in the Big East semis.
UConn is 8-1 ATS following three or more consecutive ATS wins this season. Marquette is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on the highway following three consecutive games as favorites. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. UConn is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Golden Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet UConn Friday.
|03-10-23||Tennessee v. Missouri +6||Top||71-79||Win||100||7 h 56 m||Show|
25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri +6
Missouri comes in rested and ready to go after receiving a double-bye into the quarterfinals. The are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into the SEC Tournament by winning four consecutive games to earn this double-bye. And now they are catching 6 points in the opener against Tennessee when I think they should be favored.
That's especially the case considering Tennessee will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after beating Ole Miss yesterday. That was a rare win recently for the Volunteers, who are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending injury to boot and are vulnerable here in the postseason.
Missouri won 86-85 as 12-point road underdogs in their lone meeting this season with the Volunteers. That spread was way off, and this spread is, too. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover four or five of its last six games coming in. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers. Bet Missouri Friday.
|03-10-23||UAB v. North Texas -1||76-69||Loss||-110||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Afternoon BLOWOUT on North Texas -1
North Texas is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall and coming off a 74-46 blowout victory over Louisiana Tech yesterday. That blowout win means they will be fresh and ready to go taking on UAB today.
UAB will also be fresh, but I can't help but look at both regular season meetings between these two teams and feel like North Texas is simply the better team. The Mean Green went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Blazers winning 82-79 at home and 63-52 on the road. Contrary to popular belief, it's not hard to beat a team three times in the same season.
UAB is 0-7 ATS following two consecutive games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds. North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games away from home vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Blazers are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win. UAB is 1-7 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. I'll gladly back the better defensive team in North Texas that takes care of the ball here. Bet North Texas Friday.
|03-09-23||Knicks v. Kings -2.5||Top||117-122||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5
The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 38-26 SU & 35-28-1 ATS this season and currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference. Yet nobody wants to give this team the respect they deserve.
Now the Kings come in fully healthy and on two days' rest and are primed for a big effort at home on National TV on TNT. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA when they are good. I think they make easy work of the Knicks tonight.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Knicks, who just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 105-112 upset home loss to Charlotte. I always like fading teams the game after having an extended winning streak snapped because there tends to be a 'hangover' effect. They aren't as motivated to keep their winning streak alive anymore.
The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have a huge betting bandwagon right now. That's why we'll 'sell high' on them. Their best player in Jalen Brunson (23.9 PPG, 6.2 APG) is nursing an ankle injury right now and questionable to play tonight. Brunson has been on a tear averaging 27.5 PPG in his last 10 games. Bet the Kings Thursday.
|03-09-23||Villanova +5.5 v. Creighton||74-87||Loss||-115||13 h 49 m||Show|
15* Villanova/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +5.5
The Villanova Wildcats are still trying to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament. A win over Creighton would go a long way. They want this game more and it will show, and thus getting 5 points with the Wildcats with everything factored in is a nice value.
I realize Villanova will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day while Creighton is off a bye, but it's a non-factor here. Villanova crushed Georgetown 80-48 yesterday and was able to rest starters in the 2nd half as a result. The Wildcats will come back fresh with a big effort tonight.
Villanova has been the better team in their two meetings with Creighton this season and clearly match up well with them. They lost 61-66 as 10-point road dogs at Creighton in a game they had a chance to win in the closing seconds. They came back and made easy work of Creighton 79-67 as 2-point home underdogs in the rematch. I expect them to win outright again today, but I'll certainly take the value and the 5.5 points here.
Creighton is 2-10 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and have been competitive in 26 consecutive games with only one loss by more than 10 points which was a 12-point defeat to UConn. The underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Villanova Thursday.
|03-09-23||NC State v. Clemson +2||54-80||Win||100||13 h 46 m||Show|
15* NC State/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +2
Wrong team favored here. Clemson had a bye into this round and is rested and ready to go. NC State played a shootout yesterday beating Virginia Tech 97-77. They Wolfpack are now getting too much respect for that victory coming back as favorites today.
This despite the fact that Clemson has owned them this season. Clemson won 78-64 as 2.5-point home favorites over the Wolfpack and backed it up with a 96-71 road win at NC State as 6-point dogs in the rematch. The Tigers clearly match up well with the Wolfpack. Clemson also needs this game more to make the NCAA Tournament so won't be taking them lightly.
NC State is 1-8 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season. Clemson is 8-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Tigers are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous. The Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games. I'll gladly back the much better defensive team here in Clemson against the flashy offensive team in NC State. Bet Clemson Thursday.
|03-09-23||TCU v. Kansas State +2.5||80-67||Loss||-110||13 h 38 m||Show|
15* TCU/Kansas State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +2.5
Kansas State will have the home-court advantage today with this game being played in Kansas City. They should not be underdogs to TCU considering that fact, plus they are fully healthy while TCU is going to be without key big man Eddie Lampkin Jr.
Kansas State crushed TCU 82-61 at home this season and it should be more of the same in the rematch here. The Wildcats have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball this season going 23-8 SU & 20-11 ATS. They are 16-1 SU at home this season, and while this isn't a true home game it will feel like one for them.
The Horned Frogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kansas State is 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season. Bet Kansas State Thursday.
|03-09-23||UNLV v. Boise State -4||Top||76-87||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
20* UNLV/Boise State MWC No-Brainer on Boise State -4
UNLV needed OT to beat Air Force 78-70 yesterday in a game that was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. It was a brutal beat for me on Air Force +7, and I'll gladly fade the Rebels in this spot considering they lack depth without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert (11.5 PPG).
Meanwhile, Boise State comes in rested after receiving a bye. The Broncos might still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament so they won't be taking UNLV lightly. They have won both meetings with the Rebels this season, including a blowout 84-66 road win at UNLV. The Broncos are now 7-0 SU In their last eight meetings with the Rebels winning six of them by 4 points or more. Bet Boise State Thursday.
|03-09-23||Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -8||Top||46-74||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -8
Louisiana Tech (15-17) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. The Bulldogs are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games without him.
Louisiana Tech needed OT to beat Florida International 81-76 yesterday. Willis played all 45 minutes and Crawford played 44 minutes for the Bulldogs, who are short on depth especially without Williams. They won't have much left in the tank for North Texas today.
North Texas (25-6) is one of the best mid-majors in the country. The Mean Green are rested and ready to go after getting a bye into this round. They just won 72-62 at LA Tech on February 18th in their most recent meeting, and I like their chances of winning by double-digits in the rematch here given the rest advantage and the home-court advantage as the C-USA Tournament is being played in Frisco, TX.
The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with seven wins by double-digits. Bet North Texas Thursday.
|03-09-23||Colorado v. UCLA -8.5||69-80||Win||100||15 h 52 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -8.5
Colorado was in a dog fight with Washington yesterday but pulled out the 74-68 victory. Now the Buffaloes will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and are short on depth right now. They just lost leading scorer KJ Simpson (15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG) to Mono right before the Pac-12 Tournament. They were already without third-leading scorer J'vonne Hadley (8.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and couldn't afford to lose Simpson.
Now they have to take on a rested UCLA team coming off a bye that is the best team in the Pac-12. This has double-digit blowout written all over it. UCLA has won four consecutive meetings with Colorado in this series, including both meetings this season.
Colorado is 54-90 ATS in its last 144 games played away from home following two consecutive wins. The Bruins have won 10 consecutive games with six wins by 9 points or more. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Bet UCLA Thursday.
|03-09-23||Ohio State v. Iowa -1.5||Top||73-69||Loss||-110||15 h 35 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -1.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Iowa Hawkeyes after an upset loss to Nebraska in their regular season finale. They had won 90-68 at Indiana in the game prior, so it was more of an aberration than anything. Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament last year and will be locked in and focused to repeat.
The Hawkeyes have the rest advantage here after getting a bye into this round, while Ohio State won a hard-fought 65-57 game against Wisconsin yesterday. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Buckeyes, who are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their brief run comes to an end today.
Iowa beat Ohio State 92-75 at home on February 16th. Ohio State is 3-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The Buckeyes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Bet Iowa Thursday.
|03-09-23||Iowa State v. Baylor UNDER 134.5||Top||78-72||Loss||-110||13 h 36 m||Show|
20* Iowa State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 134.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 6 days between Baylor and Iowa State. The Cyclones won 73-58 for just 131 combined points on March 4th. The Cyclones have shot at least 50% in both meetings with Baylor this season and that's not going to happen again. But they have proven they can stop Baylor, holding them to 58 and 62 points in the two meetings this season.
Iowa State is 20-10 UNDER in all games this season. The Cyclones are 13-2 UNDER in their last 15 games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) after 15-plus games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Cyclones last seven games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in Cyclones last eight neutral site games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-09-23||Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -5||Top||72-74||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
20* Wake Forest/Miami ACC No-Brainer on Miami -5
Wake Forest won at the buzzer yesterday over Syracuse. That game took a lot out of the Demon Deacons as it was played at a fast pace. They are without second-leading scorer Monsanto (13.3 PPG) and lack depth.
Miami is rested and ready to go after getting a bye into this round. The Hurricanes are fully healthy and not only a legit ACC title contender, but also a NCAA Tournament contender after making a deep run last year and bringing back mostly the same team.
Miami beat Wake Forest 96-87 at home in their lone meeting this season on February 18th. Monsanto scored 14 points in that game for Wake Forest and they won't have his production this time around.
Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread this season. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by 3 points or less. The Demon Deacons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Bet Miami Thursday.
|03-09-23||St. John's +8 v. Marquette||70-72||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +8
Oddsmakers and the betting public are making the mistake of not realizing that this is a home game for St. John's at Madison Square Garden. Thus, they should not be catching 8-plus points against the Marquette Golden Eagles.
I realize the Red Storm will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day while the Golden Eagles are off a bye, but the Red Storm made easy work of Butler 76-63 yesterday which softens the blow. Marquette is a terrible rebounding team while St. John's is a great one, which will keep them in this game.
St. John's just lost 96-94 at Marquette as 11.5-point dogs in the regular season finale to prove they could play with the Golden Eagles on the road. So they are revenge-minded here, and oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough towards them considering they are flipping home courts here.
The Red Storm are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Golden Eagles are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall and have been overvalued for weeks after winning the Big East regular season title. Bet St. John's Thursday.
|03-08-23||Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 136||Top||49-57||Win||100||14 h 13 m||Show|
20* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 136
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, who are both desperate for wins to try and make the NCAA Tournament. That will lead to all out defense and a low scoring game today.
Let's just compare this 136-point total to the totals in the first two meetings this season. They had the total set at 127.5 for the first meeting which resulted in 128 combined points. They had the total set at 131.5 for the 2nd meeting that resulted in 132 combined points. Now we have a 136-point total for the 3rd and final meeting, which is 8.5 points higher than that first meeting and 4.5 points higher than the 2nd meeting. There's clearly a ton of value with the UNDER as a result.
Oklahoma ranks 285th in adjusted tempo and 48th in adjusted defense. Oklahoma State ranks 167th in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted defense. So these are two elite defensive teams that both prefer to play slow, especially Oklahoma. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.