15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -7 

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team on the rise under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  He has improved this team in each of his first three seasons, going from 2-10 in Year 1 to 6-7 in Year 2 and 8-5 in Year 3 last season.  Now he has his best team yet and some stability in the program with how well he has recruited.  The Cavaliers are a legit contender to win the Coastal this year. 

Last year, the Cavaliers lost five games, but three were by 4 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played.  Now they have 14 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters back from a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Cavaliers return stud quarterback Bryce Perkins, which will help make up for the fact that they only return six starters on that side of the ball.  Perkins threw for 2,680 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 923 yards and nine scores.  The offensive line returns three starters and they have 17 offensive linemen on scholarship, so Mendenhall now has the numbers he wants up front. 

Virginia is off to an impressive 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Pittsburgh handily 30-14 on the road in Week 1 while limiting the Panthers to just 263 total yards.  That’s a Pitt team that went on to beat a good Ohio team 20-10 at home last week.  Then Virginia handled their business in a 52-17 win over William & Mary as 32.5-point favorites last week. 

Florida State failed to make a bowl game last year at 5-7.  Many thought they’d bounce back this season, but from what I’ve seen so far, they are just a bad, undisciplined football team.  Florida State lost its opener 31-36 at home to Boise State as 6.5-point favorites.  Then, the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with a 45-44 (OT) home victory over Louisiana-Monroe as 23-point favorites last week. 

It’s clear the Seminoles have an awful defense.  They are giving up 40.0 points and 520.0 yards per game this season.  And that’s where the difference lies in this football game.  Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 15.5 points and 228 yards per game through their first two games.  These teams are similar offensively. 

I also like the fact that this is a night game for Virginia, so it will be a rowdy atmosphere in Charlottesville.  Fans are very excited about this team as they have a great chance to win the Coastal and get to the ACC Championship Game.  Virginia has easily been the most impressive team in the Coastal thus far, and arguably the second-best team in the ACC behind Clemson.

I'm definitely starting to believe that Willie Taggart is an overrated head coach.  If he can't make the talent work in Tallahassee, that's on him.  And Taggart is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS as a road underdogs in his time between Oregon and Florida State with the five ATS losses coming by an average of 17 points per game.

Florida State is 0-7 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last two years.  Mendenhall is 11-1 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Cavaliers.  Take Virginia Saturday.

15* Clemson/Syracuse ACC ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +28.5 

I faded Clemson with success last week on Texas A&M.  And I’m fading them again for many of the same reasons.  Being the No. 1 team in the country and the defending national champs comes with expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  The Tigers are lucky not to be 0-2 ATS as Georgia Tech fumbled going into the end zone, losing by 38 as 36.5-point dogs. 

Last week, Clemson wasn’t all that dominant at home against Texas A&M.  They won 24-10 as 15.5-point favorites and only outgained the Aggies by 100 yards.  All the hype surrounding Trevor Lawrence may be getting to him.  He has thrown two touchdowns against three interceptions and is only averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. 

This is the perfect ‘buy low’ situation on Syracuse.  Many thought Syracuse was the second-best team in the ACC coming into the season because they won 10 games last year.  After beating Liberty 24-0, the Orange fell flat last week amidst the big expectations and lost 20-63 at Maryland.  That was exactly the humbling they needed, and it was clearly a lookahead spot for them to this Clemson game, so you can understand the poor performance. 

Syracuse is clearly better than they showed against Maryland last week.  They returned 13 starters this year, including seven on defense and are better on that side of the ball than the 63 points they allowed to Maryland.  Keep in mind they shut out Liberty the previous week.  And offensively, Tommy DeVito now has two starts under his belt and should be much more comfortable moving forward.  He has leading rusher Moe Neal and three of his top four receivers back from last year, so it’s only a matter of time before this Dino Babers offense takes off after scoring 40.2 points per game last year. 

Syracuse has played Clemson as tough as anyone the last two years.  They won 27-24 as 23-point underdogs in the Carrier Dome in 2017.  Then they came back last year and led most the way at Clemson before giving up a late score to lose 23-27 as 24.5-point dogs.  Imagine the disrespect they are feeling now as 28.5-point underdogs at home this year after taking Clemson to the wire each of the last two seasons.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And it will be a great night time atmosphere with this game behind played at 7:30 PM EST inside the Carrier Dome. 

Dabo Swinney is 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson.  Te Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight September games.  The Orange are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+105) 

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 25-9 in their last 34 games overall to overtake first place in the NL Central.  The Milwaukee Brewers are now without Christian Yelich due to a season-ending injury, and the life has been sucked out of them because of it. 

I’ll gladly back Jack Flaherty, who has been the best starter in baseball in the second half of the season.  Flaherty is 6-1 with a minuscule 0.71 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break.  He has basically been untouchable down the stretch. 

Jordan Lyles is 10-8 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 25 starts this season, and 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Lyles is 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven career starts against the Cardinals as well. 

The Cardinals are 23-7 in their last 30 home games.  St. Louis is 40-18 in its last 58 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in Flaherty’s last eight starts on 5 days’ rest.  St. Louis is 4-0 in Flaherty’s last four home starts.  St. Louis is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven home meetings.  Take the Cardinals Saturday. 

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -10 

Louisville came into the season way undervalued.  They went 2-10 last season and Bobby Petrino was let go before season’s end.  Simply put, the Cardinals quit on Petrino.  They lost their final nine games and were never really competitive.  I have no doubt the talent level on that team was better than their 2-10 record.  And keep in mind that Louisville had been to eight straight bowl games prior to last year.  They had won 8 or more games in six straight seasons coming into 2018. 

I loved the hiring of Scott Satterfield in the offseason.  He came over from Appalachian State where he compiled a 51-24 record there.  Fortunately for Satterfield, the cupboard wasn’t left bare.  Louisville returned 16 starters in all.  They should be one of the most improved defensive teams in the country with 10 starters back on that side of the ball. 

So far, so good for Satterfield and company.  I was very impressed with their 17-35 loss to Notre Dame as 18.5-point favorites in the opener.  That’s a Notre Dame team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  And they played the Fighting Irish toe-to-toe, only getting outgained by 31 yards.  The difference was the 3-to-1 turnover edge for the Irish. 

Last week, Louisville took it to Eastern Kentucky 42-0 as 21-point favorites.  They outgained Eastern Kentucky by 370 total yards and held them to just 172 yards of offense.  It’s the type of team that Louisville would have struggled against last season.  But this is clearly a revamped and revitalized Louisville squad under the leadership of Satterfield. 

Western Kentucky is getting way too much respect for beating Florida International 20-14 last week.  That’s an FIU team that lost 14-42 to Tulane in their opener.  It’s clear that FIU was one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into the season. 

I think the home loss to Central Arkansas 28-35 as 10-point favorites in the opener is a better sign of how good this Western Kentucky team is.  Losing to an FCS opponent as a double-digit favorite is never a good sign.  They gave up 404 passing yards to Central Arkansas in the loss. 

Louisville is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Conference USA opponents.  Western Kentucky is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.  This spread is also low because Louisville only beat WKU 20-17 last year.  But like I said, that was a team that quit on Petrino, and now they are ‘all in’ for Satterfield and playing up to their talent level.  I expect this game to be over by halftime.  Take Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Air Force +5 

The Colorado Buffaloes are in a massive letdown spot this week.  They came back from 17-0 down at halftime to beat Nebraska 34-31 in overtime last week.  They have their Pac-12 opener on deck against Arizona State next week, making this a sandwich game for them. 

Now the Buffaloes have to try and get ready for the Air Force triple-option in just one week’s time, which is very hard to do.  And this is a Colorado defense that has been absolutely gashed this season.  They have given up 487 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They have actually been outgained on the season despite their 2-0 start, and I think they’re overrated because of it. 

Air Force is a team I’ve very high on coming into the year.  The Falcons are coming off a 5-7 season, but they were much better than their record would indicate last year.  Four of their losses came by 3, 3, 4 and 6 points.  In fact, all seven of their losses came by 10 points or less, so they were competitive in every game they played.  They can only have better luck in close games this season. 

Air Force returns a whopping 15 starters, which is a ton for a service academy.  It’s their most returning starters since 2014, when they went 10-3.  This is easily the best team Air Force has had in years, and I have no doubt they will be one of the most improved teams in the country. 

The Falcons are off to a flying start by handling Colgate 48-7 as 20.5-point favorites in their opener.  They rushed for 423 yards and will be a force on the ground again with four returning starters along the offensive line.  And they had a bye last week to get ready for Colorado, giving them a big edge in rest and preparation. 

The Falcons are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 8-1 ATS in none-conference games overall the last three seasons.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS after a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet Air Force Saturday. 

20* K-State/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +8.5 

Kansas State got a great hire to replace the legendary Bill Snyder this offseason.  Chris Klieman won four FCS national titles in his five seasons at North Dakota State.  And he stepped into a good situation at Kansas State with 14 returning starters. 

The Wildcats are off to an impressive 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Nicholls State by 35 as 20.5-point favorites.  They beat Bowling Green 52-0 as 24.5-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 42 points in their first two games. 

The defense has been really impressive and allowed just 140 total yards to Bowling Green last week.  That’s a Bowling Green offense that had 620 yards and 46 points in their opener.  The Wildcats also brought back a veteran QB in Skyler Thompson, who has played well.  And the running game has produced an average of 347 yards per game and 6 yards per carry thus far. 

Kansas State wants revenge from a 31-10 home loss to Mississippi State last year.  But that was a Mississippi State team that was way better than this 2019 version.  I am way down on these Bulldogs and the UNDER 7.5 wins for them was one of my favorite win totals coming into the season. 

I think the loss of Dan Mullen will be felt this season.  Jim Moorhead no longer has Mullen’s recruits to rely on.  The Bulldogs returned just 11 starters this season.  The defense lost three first-round draft picks.  And they lost their stud QB in Nick Fitzgerald on offense. 

I have not been impressed at all by Mississippi State thus far despite their 2-0 start.  The only beat Louisiana Lafayette by 10 as 18.5-point favorites in their opener.  They beat Southern Miss by 23 as 16-point favorites last week, but that was a misleading final.  They only outgained Lafayette by 67 yards and Southern Miss by 42 yards.   

The Bulldogs even took advantage of a combined 8 turnovers forced by their defense, yet still weren’t impressive.  Kansas State isn’t the type of team that beats themselves.  The Bulldogs won’t be gifted those same turnovers by the Wildcats. 

I think Mississippi State could be overlooking Kansas State with its SEC opener on deck next week.  Conversely, Kansas State has a bye next week, so they’ll be all in especially since they are seeking revenge. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas State) - after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kansas State is 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Temple +7.5 

Talk about an overreaction.  Maryland has started 2-0 with two blowout wins over Howard (79-0) and Syracuse (63-20).  Now they are ranked 24th in the country and getting a ton of hype.  This is exactly the type of spot I like to fade teams in. 

Temple didn’t play last week as they had a bye, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Maryland.  You know that they are going to be extra amped for this game hearing all the good things about Maryland in the media.  And the Owls love being counted out as they have been one of the best money makers in college football over the last few years, especially in the underdog role. 

New Temple head coach Rod Carey comes over from Northern Illinois.  He won at least 8 games in five of his six seasons at NIU and three MAC titles.  He brought over both his offensive and defensive coordinators from NIU, so there will be some stability here. 

The cupboard clearly isn’t bare for Carey, either.  Temple returned 14 starters from a team that went 8-5 last year.  Their four losses during the regular season all came by 12 points or less, so they were competitive in every game.  And one of those games included a 35-14 win at Maryland as 15-point underdogs.  They outgained the Terrapins 429 to 195 in that beat down.  So you can imagine how they feel about being 7-point dogs in the rematch. 

Temple returns a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  They have seven starters back on offense from a unit that put up 34.7 points per game, including QB Anthony Russo and five linemen with starting experience.  The defense also returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 27.1 points per game.  Seven of the top 10 tacklers are back. 

Temple took care of business 56-12 as 40-point favorites over Canisius in their opener.  You would expect them to struggle a little in their first game with a new head coach, but that didn’t happen at all.  They put up 695 yards on offense, including 507 passing yards as they weren’t afraid at all to let loose and air it out.  Their defense gave up just 211 total yards, including 21 rushing on 26 attempts. 

Stopping the run will be the key to stopping Maryland.  The Terrapins have rushed for over 300 yards in each of their first two games, but those were against two bad defenses in Howard and Syracuse.  Temple has been known for stopping the run and great linebackers.  They have allowed 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in four of the past five seasons.  I expect them to be great against the run again this season with five starters back in their front seven. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Temple) - a team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 (69.2%) ATS since 1992.  It’s really time to ’sell high’ on Maryland this week. 

The Owls are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 280 or more passing yards last game.  Maryland is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Terrapins are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games following a win, and 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games off an ATS win.  Maryland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Temple Saturday.

20* Washington State/Houston ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +9 

This is technically a neutral site game.  However, it will be played in Houston at NRG Stadium, which is the home of the Texans.  There’s no question the Cougars will have a home field advantage in this one. 

It’s a Houston team I was high on coming into the season.  They brought back eight starters on offense, including QB D’Eriq King, who accounted for 50 total touchdowns last year despite missing two games.  They will never be out of any game with King running the show under first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. 

We saw that against Oklahoma in the opener as the Cougars got down by 25 points, but clawed back to get within 11 late in the fourth quarter.  The Sooners tacked on a rushing TD from 21 yards out with 1:17 left to push the final margin back to 18 when they were just trying to run out the clock.  That effort on the road against the Sooners shows shat Houston is capable of as Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country. 

Last week was clearly a flat spot for Houston and a sandwich game between Oklahoma and Washington State.  It’s no surprise they came out flat and only beat Prairie View 37-17 as 36-point favorites.  I think they are now undervalued because everyone is seeing that result and thinking that Houston isn’t very good.  But human nature is the reason why they didn’t perform up to par in that game. 

Now the Cougars will be ’sky high’ with Washington State coming to town.  This is a Cougars team I’m way down on after a school record 11 wins last year.  They are overvalued early in the season, especially after two blowout wins against a couple cupcakes to start the season. 

They beat New Mexico State 58-7 as 33.5-point favorites and Northern Colorado 59-17 as 43-point favorites. New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in FBS and lost to Alabama 10-62 last week.  Northern Colorado is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They lost to San Jose State 35-18 in their opener, and San Jose State lost 16-34 at home to Tulsa last week. 

The betting public is going to see those scores and automatically jump on Washington State.  There’s clearly value with Houston because of it.  Give Mike Leach props for a great season last year, but the schedule was very easy and gets a lot tougher this season.  They also lost QB Gardner Minshew, who had a monster season after transferring from Eastern Washington. 

I realize it has been basically plug and play at QB for Washington State.  And the offense should be fine again, but the defense only returns six starters.  They have allowed 336.0 yards per game to New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  Their defense was much better last year and that’s the biggest reason they won 11 games.  They lost a lot of talent from that stop unit.   

King and company should be able to score at will on them.  Houston averaged 47.8 points and 541 yards per game in games in which King started last year.  Now that he has two games under his belt in Holgorsen’s new offense, he should start to really shine after a somewhat slow start to the season.  King has six total touchdowns (3 passing, 3 rushing) and only one interception thus far. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 425 or more total yards per game, with eight or more offensive starters including their QB returning are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1992. 

Mike Leach is 0-7 ATS in road games after two consecutive games where his team forced three or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  HIs teams have never covered in this situation.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -122 

The St. Louis Cardinals are just four games ahead of both the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central.  They choked away the division in September last year, so they’ll be extra motivated here down the stretch to close the deal.  Look for them to take Game 1 of this series from the Brewers at home tonight. 

Adam Wainwright has been awesome at home and great of late.  Wainwright is 7-3 with a 2.43 ERA in 13 home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts.  Wainwright is also 16-10 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 34 career starts against the Brewers. 

Adrian Houser is 2-5 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 14 starts for the Brewers this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven starts away from home.  Houser is also 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals. 

Wainwright is 14-2 vs. an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  St. Louis is 22-7 in its last 29 home games.  The Cardinals are 48-21 in Wainwright’s last 69 home starts.  St. Louis is 10-2 in Wainwright’s last 12 starts overall.  Roll with the Cardinals Friday. 

15* Bucs/Panthers NFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 49.5 

I expect a low scoring game in this division rivalry between the Panthers and Bucs tonight.  Both teams are coming off losses that can be 100% attributed to turnovers.  Look for both teams to have conservative game plans and to focus more on taking care of the football than anything, which will help lead to the UNDER. 

The Bucs were dreadful offensively against the 49ers last week.  They managed just 17 points and 295 total yards while committing four turnovers.  Jameis Winston threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  Their defense actually played well in giving up just 256 total yards to the 49ers in the loss. 

The Panthers had 343 total yards against a mediocre Rams defense.  And they were very pass-happy as they were trying to come from behind the entire game.  That led to three turnovers, which also set up some easy scores for the Rams.  Their defense was actually decent in holding a high-powered Rams offense to just 349 total yards. 

With a total of 49.5 here, the Panthers and Bucs have gone UNDER that number in six of their their last seven meetings, and they are 12-2 to the UNDER 49.5 in their last 14 meetings.  They have combined for 48 or fewer points in 12 of those 14 games.  I think there’s some serious value on the UNDER tonight. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucs last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Bucs last 16 games off a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -137 

The Chicago Cubs have lost five of their last six games overall to fall into a tie with the Brewers for the second wild card spot.  It’s time to get going for the Cubs, and I expect them to take Game 4 of this series against the Padres today. 

Yu Darvish has been at his best not he road this season, going 3-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in 15 starts.  Darvish is coming off two straight great starts, allowing just one run in 13 innings for a 0.69 ERA.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts overall. 

Dinelson Lamet is 2-4 with a. 3.95 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Lamet has actually been at his worst at home this season inside pitcher-friendly Petco Park, going 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in five starts. 

Lamet is 0-7 in home games vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game in his career.  The Cubs are 57-23 in their last 80 Thursday games.  Chicago is 35-16 in its last 52 during Game 4 of a series.  The Padres are 0-9 in Lamet’s last nine home starts.  Bet the Cubs Thursday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -143 

The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Rockies in Game 1 of this series.  It was a rare loss for the Cardinals, who are 23-8 in their last 31 games overall.  It was a rare win for the Rockies, who are 3-15 in their last 18 games overall as they have simply been playing out the string. 

The Cardinals have the clear edge on the mound in this one.  Dakota Hudson is 15-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 28 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.712 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has a 3.23 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break as well.  Hudson fired 6 shutout innings in a 6-0 win over the Rockies in his only start against them on August 24th. 

Antonio Senzatela has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 8-10 with a 7.19 ERA and 1.782 WHIP in 21 starts, including 0-3 with a 15.82 ERA and 2.378 WHIP in his last three starts.  Senzatela is also 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 6 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals for a 19.50 ERA. 

The Cardinals are a perfect 8-0 in their last eight games following a loss.  St. Louis is 9-0 in its last nine during Game 2 of a series.  The Cardinals are 13-0 in Hudson’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 0-4 in Senzatela’s last four starts.  These four trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing St. Louis tonight.  Bet the Cardinals Wednesday. 

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -134 

The Cleveland Indians are a half-game back on the Oakland A’s for the second wild card spot in the American League.  They’re motivated right now, while the Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 games overall and have nothing to play for. 

The Indians have the edge on the mound tonight behind Zach Please, who is 7-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He’ll be opposed by Jose Suarez, who is 2-5 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Plesac is 8-1 (+8.3 units) in night games this season.  The Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Angels are 0-6 in Suarez’s last six starts.  Cleveland is 22-4 in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Indians Tuesday. 

15* NL Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -138 

The St. Louis Cardinals have grabbed ahold of the NL Central lead by going 23-7 in their last 30 games overall.  They should be much bigger favorites over the Colorado Rockies, who appear to have quit in going 2-15 in their last 17 games overall. 

Michael Wacha has been at his best here down the stretch for the Cardinals.  He has posted a 2.78 ERA in his last five starts overall.  The Cardinals clearly have the edge on the mound in this one along with the motivational edge. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is still in search of his first victory this season.  He is 0-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in nine starts, including 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA and 2.378 WHIP in three home starts.  Gonzalez was rocked for 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a 6-0 road loss to the Cardinals on August 24th in his only career start against them. 

The Cardinals are 37-17 in Wacha’s last 54 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 40-15 in its last 55 vs. a team with a losing record.  Colorado is 0-9 in Gonzalez’s nine starts this season.  The Rockies are 0-6 in their last six home games.  St. Louis is 43-17 in the last 60 meetings.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday. 

20* Texans/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +7 

The Houston Texans went 11-5 last season and won the AFC South.  It’s worth noting that all five of their losses came by 7 points or less.  So they went the entire 16-game schedule without losing a game by more than a touchdown.  Now they are catching 7 points in their opener against the New Orleans Saints.  I think there’s value with the road underdog here to say the least. 

The Texans didn’t even live up to their potential offensive last year due to injuries at receiver to two of their three biggest weapons in Will Fuller and Keke Coutee.  Both are healthy and ready to start the 2019 season, giving Deshaun Watson easily one of the best trio of weapons to work with.  And they traded for Duke Johnson, giving him yet another outlet coming out of the backfield. 

The Texans certainly leaned on their defense last season that gave up 19.8 points per game.  I know they lost Jadeveon Clowney, Tyrann Mathieu and two cornerbacks.  But the Texans still have several defensive stalwarts that remain in J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Zach Cunningham and Jonathan Joseph.  This will still be an above average defensive unit. 

I question the state of mind of the Saints after the way they exited the playoffs the last two years.  They were victims of the Minneapolis Miracle two years ago.  Last year the refs missed a pass interference call in the NFC Championship that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl.  Time is now running out on the aging Drew Brees and company.  Brees looked a little broken down the stretch last year and is clearly losing velocity on his throws. 

Last year, the Saints started very slow after that Minneapolis Miracle the previous season.  They lost their opener as double-digit home favorites to the Bucs 40-48.  Then in Week 2 they were very fortunate to escape with a 21-18 home victory over the Browns as nearly double-digit favorites.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 games, so Sean Payton has been a notorious slow starter.  Bet the Texans Monday. 

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -127 

The Philadelphia Phillies are just two games back in the wild card.  This series means more to them than the Braves, who are now 9 games up in the NL East.  They basically already have the division wrapped up after taking three of four from Washington over the weekend. 

We’re clearly backing the better starter today in Aaron Nola, who is 6-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.198 WHIP In 17 home starts this season.  Nola owns the Braves, going 10-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 16 career starts against them. 

Mike Foltynewicz has struggled this season trying to come back from injury.  He is 5-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 17 starts this year. 

Nola is a perfect 9-0 against the money line vs. teams that average 1.5 or more HR’s/game in his career.  He has never lost to these teams.  The Phillies are 12-1 after a combined score of 17 or more runs this season.  Take the Phillies Monday. 

20* Steelers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 49 

These are two teams that rely on their defenses more now that their quarterbacks are aging.  The Patriots were dominant in the playoffs last year defensively and gave up just 20.4 points per game, including 17.9 points per game at home.  They return almost everyone on defense and upgraded on that side of the ball through the draft as well. 

The Steelers were among the league leaders in defense last year giving up 22.5 points and 327.4 yards per game.  They have studs at all three levels of their defense in Cameron Hayward, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush and Joe Haden.  It’s a very young defense that is only getting better. 

The Patriots lose both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan.  It’s well documented that Tom Brady puts up much better numbers with Gronk than without him.  So there will be a transition period here, especially with his replacement in Ben Watson suspended for the start of the season.  And Roethlisberger loses both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  Losing Brown really hurts as despite being a distraction, he’s still arguably the best receiver in the league. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Last year, the Steelers beat the Patriots 17-10 at home for 27 combined points.  And we are getting a total here of 49, which is 22 points more than they combined for last year.  I think there’s value in the UNDER as both offenses will be rusty to start, which will be the case across the league just as it was with the Packers and Bears Monday night. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Steelers last seven vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Steelers last 52 road games.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games overall, including 4-1 in their last five home games.  Pittsburgh is 10-1 UNDER in road games against AFC teams over the last three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York +7.5 

The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of distractions due to contract situations.  Zeke just signed this week and returned to practice, but I can’t see him getting his normal workload considering he hasn’t been in camp yet until this week.  There’s no way he is in game shape.  Amari Cooper just returned to practice this week after missing basically all of camp with injury.  Both Cooper and Dak Prescott are disgruntled right now because they don’t have their contracts, while almost everyone else around them does. 

While the Cowboys are distracted, the Giants are determined to right this ship after a 5-11 season last year.  They showed up in the preseason especially offensively as they led all teams with 9 TD passes, points (119) average passing yards (305.5) and total offense (393).  It’s a good sign that everyone has a grasp of Pat Shurmur’s offense in his second year as head coach. 

Eli Manning is out to prove that he can still play.  Fortunately for him, the Giants now have a ground game to rely on as Saquon Barkley had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns.  He is a big play waiting to happen.  Manning threw for 4,299 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  He was still serviceable, and he has some nice weapons outside in Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. 

The Giants will be improved defensively this season.  They got Jabril Peppers in the Beckham Jr. trade and added Antone Bethea in free agency.  Janoris Jenkins remains one of the best corners in the NFL.  The Giants used five of their top six picks on defense, including 342-pound rookie DT Dexter Lawrence and CB DeAndre Baker in the first round.  Both should start right away.  WLB Lorenzo Carter is ready for a starting role after being a situational pass rusher as a rookie. 

No question the Cowboys have a young, emerging defense.  But they had some injuries in training camp that could have them starting slow on that side of the ball out of the gate.  Four starters barely practiced in the preseason.  DeMarcus Lawrence is coming back from shoulder surgery, both DE Tyrone Crawford and CB Byron Jones have dealt with hip issues, and LB Sean Lee injured his knee early in camp.  All four are expected to play, but may be limited in some capacity. 

The Giants looked awful in the opener against the Cowboys last year, yet still only lost 13-20.  That score will get it done for us here Sunday as we have a lot of room to spare on the Giants +7.5.  Jason Garrett is just 17-33 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas.  The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Divisional underdogs are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 Week 1 games.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati Bengals +10 

The Cincinnati Bengals got off to a 4-1 start last year before getting decimated by injuries.  They finished 1-7 in their final eight games overall.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with them heading into 2019.  This is the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on the Bengals catching double-digits in Week 1. 

Andy Dalton is back healthy.  I know A.J. Green is out to start the season, but the Bengals have plenty of other weapons at Dalton’s disposal.  I like RB Joe Mixon, WR’s Tyler Boyd and John Ross III, and TE’s C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Eifert.  This offense is better than it’s getting credit for.  Look for the 36-year-old Zac Taylor to inject new life into this offense and this team.  Taylor learned under Sean McVay with the Rams. 

Cincinnati has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by Pro Bowlers Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins.  DE Sam Hubbard had an impressive rookie campaign with six sacks.  Carl Lawson had a great rookie season in 2017 before suffering an injury in 2018, and having him back will add some much needed depth.  The defense also gets back MLB Preston Brown from injury, their leader in the middle.  And they spent a third-round pick on NC State LB Germaine Pratt who should get significant snaps right away. 

With a strong defensive line and secondary, this defense is underrated.  The Bengals featured Dre Kirkpatrick and Williams Jackson at corner, and Shawn Williams and Jessie Bates at safety.  Kirkpatrick, Jackson and Williams have proven themselves as plus defenders, and Bates enters his second season and is ready for a bigger role. 

Seattle is getting treated like the Seattle of old here.  But the fact of the matter is the Seahawks have lost most of their key players from their Super Bowl runs aside from Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.  I think the trade for Jadeveon Clowney has them overhyped coming into the season.  Clowney has been an injury waiting to happen his entire career.  Yes, Seattle won 10 games last year, but they were actually outgained on the season.  They weren’t nearly as good as their record would indicate. 

Plays on underdogs or PK (Cincinnati) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 385 or more total yards per game are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bengals are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 September games.  Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Seahawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven September games.  Take the Bengals Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks +118 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  They have pulled within 1.5 games of the Cubs for the second wild card spot now.  Yet, the Diamondbacks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as underdogs Sunday to the Reds, who have nothing to play for. 

Mike Leake has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts against the Reds.  He has posted a 3.00 ERA in his last six starts against the Reds while allowing just 12 earned runs in 36 innings of work. 

Anthony DeSclafini is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  DeSclafini is 9-8 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  The Reds are 1-6 in DeSclafini’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.  Arizona is 5-0 in its last five road games.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3 

The Panthers opened 6-2 last year before Cam Newton injured his shoulder.  They weren’t the same after that and went 1-7 down the stretch.  Now Newton’s shoulder is healthy, and he’s fully recovered from his ankle injury suffered in the preseason.  The Panthers upgraded their offensive line to help keep Newton upright. 

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best running backs in the sport after amassing nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year.  DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are ready for bigger roles in the passing game, and they added Chris Hogan. 

Defensively, the Panthers should remain one of the top units in the league.  They added some great talent to their defensive line in Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe.  They also added DE Brian Burns in the first round of the draft and added DE Bruce Irvin.  They should have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL now.  I love the linebackers led by Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson.  Having a strong front seven will help make up for their biggest weakness, which is their secondary. 

The Panthers can only stay healthier as they had the 7th-most starts lost to injury last year.  They also went 2-7 in one-possession games last year.  These are all signs of positive regression coming.  And the Panthers always seem to bounce back and make the playoffs the year after missing out on the postseason under Ron Rivera. 

The Rams were fortunate to win 13 games last year.  They went 6-1 in one-score games, which is very hard to do.  They recovered 71% of their fumbles on defense, which is the highest fumble recovery rate since 1991.  The Rams paid all their star players, which means they don’t have much depth now.  They lost two starts on the offensive line in Roger Saffold and John Sullivan.  They have an aging defense, which is where the lack of depth will be felt most. 

I’m not a big fan of Jared Goff as I think he has been the beneficiary of Sean McVay’s system.  And I think the Rams are primed for the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, which seems to happen to every team that loses the Super Bowl the year before outside of the Patriots.  In fact, the previous year's Super Bowl loser is 3-16 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

The Panthers have a great home-field advantage.  They are 39-27 ATS at home with Ron Rivera as their head coach, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Panthers were on a 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS run at home before Cam Newton got injured last year.  The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Carolina. 

This is a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams as its always tough for West Coast teams to travel out East for early start times.  We’ll buy low on the Panthers and sell high on the Rams here in Week 1.  Bet the Panthers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Vikings UNDER 47 

The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the best defenses in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over.  That was the case again last season as they ranked among the league leaders in giving up 21.3 points and 309.7 yards per game, including 19.6 points and 268.2 yards per game at home. 

The Vikings didn’t get the boost from Kirk Cousins they wanted last year.  They scored just 22.5 points per game and Cousins struggled down the stretch.  A big problem was the play calling, which is why Zimmer brought in a new offensive coordinator.  He wants to run the ball more and take pressure off Cousins, which will make them more of a ball control offense that controls time of possession and shortens games.  It makes sense to use that strategy and lean on their defense, which is their strength. 

The Falcons have a good offense and a lot of weapons.  They should be pretty solid on that side of the ball again.  But they were terrible defensively last season due to all their injuries.  They get back three key starters on defense that missed at least half the season last year.  I expect the Falcons to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL now. 

The last two meetings in this series have been defensive battles won by the Vikings.  Minnesota won 20-10 in 2015 for 30 combined points.  The Vikings also won 14-9 in 2017 for 23 combined points.  It’s clear that Zimmer has the Falcons figured out.  And I expect both offenses to be rusty in Week 1 due to a lack of playing time for their starters in the preseason. 

Minnesota is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games during the first two weeks of the season.  Zimmer is 24-11 UNDER in dome games as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 40-23 UNDER against NFC opponents as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +147 

The Indians need wins more right now than the Twins.  They are trailing the Twins by 5.5 games in the AL Central, and they are currently on the outside looking in in the wild card.  The Indians came up with a huge win yesterday over the Twins, and I like their chances again today as a big road underdog. 

I would argue that the Indians have the edge on the mound today.  Aaron Civale is 3-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in seven starts for the Indians this season.  He faced the Twins on August 11th, giving up just one earned run and four base runners in six innings. 

Jake Odorizzi has been hit or miss this season for the Twins.  Lately, he hasn’t been good at 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts.  Odorizzi is also 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Indians. 

Minnesota is a woeful 8-16 (-16.7 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The Indians are 38-14 in their last 52 vs. AL Central opponents, including 4-0 in Civale’s last four starts vs. division foes.  The Wins are 1-6 in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Indians Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks +142 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the second wild card spot.  Somehow, they continue to be undervalued as big road underdogs to the Cincinnati Reds, who have nothing to play for the rest of the way. 

Alex Young is having a solid season for the Diamondbacks, going 6-3 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Young is 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA in five road starts as well. 

Luis Castillo is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He has a 6.00 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 8 earned runs in 12 innings.  Castillo has never fared well against the Diamondbacks, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings. 

The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Arizona is 4-1 in Young’s last five road starts.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +55.5 

This game is all about fading Alabama in the big favorite role.  Nick Saban is quicker to pull his starters than almost any other head coach in this situation.  He wants to get his backups more playing time, and he doesn’t want to show too much, especially with their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina next week. 

New Mexico State is not a good team, but they return 14 starters and are experienced.  I think the fact they lost 7-58 to Washington State last week is pushing this spread up higher than it should be.  Washington State threw the ball 49 times and only ran it 20 times.  They were trying to get their passing game going with a new quarterback. 

Alabama won’t be looking to throw the ball all over the yard.  They will run it more than they pass it, which will keep the clock running and shorten the game, helping New Mexico State stay within this number.  And I think NMSU’s offense was better than the 7 points showed last week as they had 317 total yards but committed three turnovers.  Also, they held Washington State to 111 rushing yards on those 20 carries. 

Saban is 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Alabama, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 50 or more points having never covered in this situation.  These trends just show that he takes his foot off the gas all the time in this large favorite roles.  He has respect for his opponents and doesn’t run up the score. 

Plays against home favorites of 31.5 or more points (Alabama) - after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more total yards against an opponent that was outgained by 125 or more total yards last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Aggies after failing to cover against Washington State, and ‘sell high’ on the Crimson Tide after covering against Duke.  Roll with New Mexico State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Central Michigan +35 

The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off one of the most impressive wins of Week 1.  They beat South Florida 49-0 as 10-point road favorites.  Now it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Badgers, who come back as whopping 35-point favorites over Central Michigan this week. 

While impressive, that win against South Florida I think has more to do with the direction of the Bulls than anything.  Charlie Strong was a disaster in Texas and has been a disaster thus far at South Florida.  This team lost their final six games last year once the competition got tougher after a 7-0 start.  Wisconsin was simply able to maul them and continue USF’s downward spiral. 

Central Michigan has been one of the best MAC programs throughout the years.  But they are coming off a dreadful 1-11 season, so I think we are definitely ‘buying low’ on them to start the season.  They had been bowl eligible in six straight seasons before bottoming out at 1-11 last year.  There’s reason for optimism in Mt. Pleasant moving forward. 

That’s because Central Michigan had one of the best hires of the offseason in Jim McElwain.  He has been a winner everywhere he has gone, turning around Colorado State in his three years there before landing the Florida job.  He has a 44-28 record as a head coach and is instantly one of the best coaches in the MAC now. 

McElwain has always been an offensive guy, and he actually has some nice talent to work with in his eight returning starters.  That doesn’t even count Tennessee transfer QB Quinten Dormady, who was a Top 20 recruit coming out of high school.  Dormady won the job in camp and was great in Week 1. 

Central Michigan beat Albany 38-21 as 13.5-point favorites int heir opener.  This was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as they outgained Albany 529 to 244, or by 285 total yards.  Dormady went 27-of-37 for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  The Chippewas rushed for 244 yards as a team as well. 

Wisconsin just can’t seem to get over the injury bug that has plagued them the last few seasons.  The Badgers have a ton of projected starters coming into the season that are out with injuries this week.  They include NT Bryson Williams, S Scott Nelson, RT Logan Bruss and LB Chris Orr.  That’s a lot of starters to be missing this early in the season for a team that returned just 12 starters and was projected to start eight sophomores. 

Paul Chryst is 1-10 ATS after leading their previous game by 17 or more points at half as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Chryst is 3-11 ATS off a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Chippewas are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Central Michigan Saturday. 

20* Nebraska/Colorado FOX No-Brainer on Nebraska -4 

The Nebraska hype in the offseason was definitely off the charts.  And they failed to live up to it in Week 1 as they won just 35-21 as 35-point favorites against South Alabama.  Now that the hype has cooled, I think it’s time to jump on Nebraska against Colorado this week as only 4-point favorites. 

The comments coming from Nebraska’s locked room after the game were the type of comments I like to hear.  Both head coach Scott Frost and QB Adrian Martinez were disappointed.  Frost said that’s one of the worst offensive performances he’s ever been a part of, and Martinez said their performance was unacceptable. 

I have no doubt the Huskers will put their best foot forward this week.  Not just because they weren’t satisfied with their performance against South Alabama, but also because they want revenge on Colorado from a 28-33 home loss to the Buffaloes last year.  That was a very misleading loss as the Huskers outgained the Buffaloes 565 to 395, but lost the turnover battle 3-0. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect now after beating Colorado State 52-31 as 11-point favorites in their opener.  That was a misleading final too as the Buffaloes were outgained in the game and actually gave up a whopping 505 total yards to the Rams.  But they won the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference.  And that’s a Colorado State team that has been trending in the wrong direction in recent years. 

Colorado is a rebuilding team this year with a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker.  They return just 11 starters.  The Buffaloes do have a good offense with seven starters back, but their defense only has four starters back and should be one of the worst units in the Pac-12.  That was on display last week as they gave up those 505 yards to Colorado State. 

Even thought this is technically a home game for Colorado, it won’t feel like one.  That’s because Nebraska fans travel almost as well as anyone, and it’s a short trip to Boulder.  They will have nearly 50% of the fans there as I know for sure Colorado allotted at least 30% of the tickets for Nebraska fans.  So this will be closer to a neutral site game, and Nebraska is much better than -4 against Colorado on a neutral. 

Colorado is 0-9 ATS after a game where 60 or more points were scored over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 11.0 points per game in this spot.  The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game.  They are losing by 10.8 points per game in this spot.  We’ll buy low on the Huskers in after last week’s performance and in a revenge spot here.  Bet Nebraska Saturday. 

15* Texas A&M/Clemson ABC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +17.5 

Being the No. 1 team in the country coming off a national championship comes with a heavy price tag when it comes to betting.  That’s the case for the Clemson Tigers, who are going to have inflated spreads week in and week out moving forward.  It’s going to make it very difficult for them to cover consistently knowing that the betting public will be quick to back them at any numbers, forcing oddsmakers to inflate their spreads. 

Clemson was fortunate to cover as 36.5-point favorites in a 52-14 win over Georgia Tech last week.  Georgia Tech was putting in a new system under a new coach going away from the triple-option from year’s past, so this was always going to be a tough test for them.  And Georgia Tech fumbled on the 1-yard line going into the end zone for a touchback, and their four turnovers overall were the difference in them covering or not. 

Texas A&M will be the best team that Clemson faces during the regular season, and it’s not even close.  I think the Aggies are fully capable of hanging with Clemson, and they proved that last year.  Clemson only won 28-26 as 11.5-point road favorites at Texas A&M.  I’d argue the Aggies deserved to win that game as they outgained the Tigers by 88 yards and racked up 501 total yards in the loss. 

Jimbo Fisher is one of my favorite head coaches.  He won a National Championship at Florida State and won 10-plus games in five of his final six seasons.  Then he came to Texas A&M and in his first year went 9-4 for their first season of nine-plus since since 2013.  And Fisher is killing it in recruiting, which will keep the Aggies as an SEC West contender for years to come. 

Only 11 starters are back for Texas A&M, but more of his recruits will be seeing playing time this year, which makes them more veteran than that 11 number shows.  And the offense is loaded with seven returning starters, including stud QB Kellen Mond, who accounted for 31 touchdowns last year.  He accounted for four touchdowns in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week as 34-point favorites. 

Clemson also has a loaded offense with eight starters back, but they have some of the same problems as Texas A&M on defense.  Both squads return just four starters on defense.  The Tigers lose their entire defensive line from last year to the NFL.  I know they have talented replacements, but I think Mond can have more success just like he had last year against their defense.  Mond threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson last year. 

Texas A&M is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Texas A&M is 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 September games. 

Plays on road teams (Texas A&M) - after a game where they forced four or more turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +20.5 

Rutgers came into the season undervalued after going 1-11 last year.  I backed Rutgers over UMass in Week 1 and they delivered with a 48-21 victory as 17-point favorites.  After a slow start, they showed some great resiliency and scored the final 41 points of the game. 

This is easily Chris Ash’s best team yet in his 4 years here.  The offense looks to be greatly improved after putting up 554 yards on UMass.  Texas Tech transfer McLane Carter threw for 340 yards in the win, and the Scarlet Knights may finally have a quarterback.  They have always had a competitive defense under Ash, which helps keep them in ball games. 

Rutgers is now 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall dating back to last season.  They covered in each of their final five games of the season against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State last year.  They nearly upset Northwestern losing by just 3 as 20-point dogs.  They also lost by only 4 as 24-point dogs at Michigan State. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes aren’t a team built to cover these big spreads.  They run a ball control offense and a bend but don’t break defense.  It’s tough for them to score enough points to cover these lofty margins.  They didn’t cover as 25-point favorites against Miami Ohio last week.  And they even scored 2 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes of that game to turn a 10-point game into a 24-point win. 

Iowa has a huge game on deck next week against Iowa State.  They could easily be looking ahead to that Top 25 showdown and overlooking Rutgers.  Either way, I think Rutgers is talented enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of the Hawkeyes.  Kirk Ferentz is 19-31 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Iowa. 

Plays on road underdogs (Rutgers) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including their QB returning are 124-69 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

20* Marshall/Boise State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Marshall +12.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd have been a power in Conference USA since Doc Holliday has been there.  He enters his 10th season this year having won eight or more games in five of the last six years overall.  Coming off a 9-4 season last year, the Thundering Herd return 14 starters and are among the favorites to win C-USA. 

Marshall gave up just 21.9 points per game last year and brought back six of its top nine tacklers from that unit.  The stop unit will be good again, and this figures to be one of Marshall’s best offenses in years with eight starters back, including QB Isaiah Green. 

That Marshall offense impressed in Week 1 by beating VMI 56-17.  It’s worth noting it was a 49-7 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Thundering Herd called off the dogs.  Green threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in the win. 

Boise State used a lot of energy coming back from 31-13 down at Florida State to win 36-31 in the heat and humidity last week.  Now the Broncos are on a short week here and probably won’t have a ton left in the tank.  It’s also a letdown spot after that huge road win in Tallahassee. 

The blue turf in Boise State isn’t the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos have consistently been overvalued at home.  They are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Brian Harsin is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State.  Harsin is also 1-9 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Broncos. 

Plays against home favorites (Boise State) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against an opponent that outrushed its last opponent by 200 or more yards are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Friday. 

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -113 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are fighting hard to make the wild card.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 3.5 games of the final wild card spot.  They face a Cincinnati Reds team this series with nothing to play for but pride at 66-75 on the season. 

Arizona has a big edge on the mound in Game 1 today and should be a bigger favorite as a result.  Robbie Ray is 12-7 with a 3.97 ERA in 28 starts with 199 K’s in 152 innings.  He is also 6-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 17 road starts.  Ray has a 4.09 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in four career starts against Cincinnati as well. 

Tyler Mahle is 2-10 with a. 4.80 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Reds.  Mahle just recently returned from the disabled list and is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts. 

Mahle is 1-11 vs. NL teams with an OBP of .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Mahle is 1-9 with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in Ray’s last 10 starts.  Arizona is 8-1 in Ray’s last nine starts during Game 1 of a series.  The Reds are 5-21 in Mahle’s last 26 starts.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Friday. 

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -156

Few teams are playing as well as the St. Louis Cardinals right now.  They are 21-6 in their last 27 games overall and determined to win the NL Central after blowing it in September last year.  They should handle their business here against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 61-79 on the season. 

Miles Mikolas is 8-13 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Mikolas is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Pirates as well. 

Alex McRae will make a spot start for the Pirates today in place of an injured Joe Musgrove.  McRae is 0-3 with a 9.98 ERA for the Pirates this season, giving up 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  The Cardinals should stay hot at the plate against him tonight. 

The Cardinals are 38-14 in their last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 5-0 in Mikolas’ last five starts on four days’ rest.  The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 17-43 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 10-1 in its last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh.  Take the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Packers/Bears 2019 NFL Season Opener on Chicago -3 

I just don’t think people are giving the Bears the respect they deserve heading into 2019.  They feel as if their 12-4 season last year was a one-hit wonder.  Well, the Bears are out to prove that it was no fluke, and I’m a believer against the Packers here in Week 1. 

For starters, the Bears are loaded defensively.  They gave up just 17.6 points per game and 299.7 yards per game last year to rank among the league leaders in both categories.  They only lost CB Bryce Callahan and S Adrian Amos from that team.  Khalil Mack single-handedly wrecks opposing offenses and their trade for him could go down as one of the best trades in NFL history. 

Offensively, the Bears improved in Year 2 under Mitchell Trubisky.  They put up 25.6 points and 344.4 yards per game.  And the scary part is, that was the first year in Matt Nagy’s system for the Bears.  They should only be better with Trubisky now likely to come into his own, and with his plethora of weapons around him.  Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are the receiving options, and Trey Burton is a very good tight end.  They also used their third-round pick on RB David Montgomery after trading away Jordan Howard, and he’s a better fit for Nagy’s system and is drawing rave reviews. 

The Packers gave up 25.0 points per game last year and have failed to upgrade their defense for years.  They finally spent some money in free agency to try and upgrade their pass rush by bringing in Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.  But they lost some key players as well along the front seven in DT Mike Daniels, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/OLB Nick Perry, DE/OLB Clay Matthews and ILB Jake Ryan.  They also lost CB Baushaud Breeland and S Kentrell Brice in the secondary.  This defense is mostly filled with no-name guys that the Packers hope will stick. 

Green Bay needs more production from its offense because it will likely be in a lot of shootouts this season.  Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had a falling out.  They brought in Matt LaFleur to try and turn things around.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2017 and held the same position with the Titans last year.  He and Rodgers are getting along well so far according to reports.  However, I think the Packers could be rusty in Week 1 because Rodgers didn’t play a single snap in the preseason. 

Last year, the Bears only lost 23-24 at Green Bay as 6.5-point dogs in their opener.  They blew a double-digit lead.  They would come back to get revenge 24-17 against Rodgers and the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites in December.  So from a line value perspective alone, I think we are getting good value with the Bears only being 3-point favorites at home in the opener compared to 5.5-point favorites against the Packers at home last year. 

The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.  The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. NFC North foes.  Bet the Bears Thursday. 

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-127) 

The Houston Astros still have a lot to play for.  They are trying to wrestle home-field advantage away from the New York Yankees in the American League.  They are 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the No. 1 seed.  The Astros are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall with nine of those wins coming by two runs or more. 

Wade Miley is quietly having a huge season for the Astros.  He is 13-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Miley is 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle, including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts against them. 

Marco Gonzales is having a decent season for the Mariners are 14-11 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 29 starts.  However, Gonzales has never beaten the Astros, going 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.826 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

Miley is 17-2 when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Mariners are 18-41 in their last 59 road games.  Seattle is 1-5 in Gonzales’ last six road starts.  Houston is 40-13 in its last 53 home games.  The Astros are 10-2 in Miley’s last 12 home starts.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are on a roll right now.  They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall to pull within 3.5 games of the final wild card spot in the National League.  The Padres don’t have much to play for right now as they are 11 games back in the wild card. 

Zac Gallen has been dominant this season with a 2.79 ERA through 12 starts.  He has proven to be a great addition for the Diamondbacks prior to the deadline.  Gallen has a 3.37 ERA in his last three starts for Arizona. 

Chris Paddack started the season great, but he has faltered here down the stretch in his first full season as a starter for the Padres.  Paddack is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings. 

The Padres are 1-5 in Paddack’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego is 0-4 in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 7-1 in its last eight vs. NL West opponents.  The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Gallen’s last five starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-122) 

The Chicago Cubs are on a mission to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central or to at least hang on to a wild card spot.  Motivation won’t be a problem for them the rest of the way.  The same cannot be said for the Mariners, who are 58-81 on the season. 

Felix Hernandez shouldn’t even be in the majors any more.  But since he’s the face of the franchise, he’s getting some starts here down the stretch.  Hernandez is 1-4 with a 6.02 ERA in 10 starts this season, 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six road starts, and 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts. 

Jon Lester will shut down the Mariners today.  He is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts.  Lester is 7-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 14 career starts against Seattle.  He faced the Mariners earlier this season on May 1st and pitching 7 shutout innings in an 11-0 victory. 

Chicago is 20-4 in home games vs. a starter that allows one or more HR’s/start over the last two seasons.  Hernandez is 1-15 vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-139) 

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 19-5 in their last 24 games overall with 15 of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Cardinals are now three games ahead of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central and playing their best ball of the season. 

The San Francisco Giants are just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall to fall eight games back in the wild card race.  They know they are done for at this point and will find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way.  Dereck Rodriquez is 5-7 with a 5.40 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 0-1 with an 11.00 ERA in his last two starts. 

Jack Flaherty is one of the hottest starters in baseball as well.  He was 4-1 with a 0.71 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 38 innings in six August starts.  Flaherty has a 0.98 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star Break as well.  He has been virtually untouchable. 

The Giants are 5-15 in Rodriquez’s last 20 starts.  San Francisco is 3-11 in Rodriquez’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 home games.  St. Louis is 7-0 in its last seven during Game 2 of a series.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-148) 

The Cleveland Indians need to rack up wins quickly.  They are falling behind the Twins in the AL Central, and they are trying to at least cling on to a wild card spot.  They beat the White Sox 11-3 yesterday to bounce back from a three-game losing streak.  Look for more of the same today. 

Mike Clevinger has been dynamite this season for the Indians.  He is 10-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 15 starts, 4-0 with a 1.81 ERA in seven home starts, and 3-0 with a 0.48 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Clevinger is also 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in six career starts against the White Sox. 

Dylan Cease is 3-7 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.635 WHIP in 10 starts for Chicago this season.  Cease has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with an 11.08 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in his last three starts with 16 runs and 5 homers allowed in 13 innings. 

The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 0-7 in its lsat seven games overall.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Cease’s last six starts following a loss in their previous game.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Cleveland.  Roll with the Indians Tuesday. 

15* Notre Dame/Louisville ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +18.5 

This is a great opportunity to buy low on Louisville and sell high on Notre Dame in Week 1.  Louisville is coming off a disastrous 2-10 season last year that came out of nowhere.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame went 12-1 and made the four-team playoff, so expectations are way high on them now. 

Simply put, players quit on head coach Bobby Petrino last year.  They lost their final nine games and rarely were competitive.  Petrino was fired with two games left.  I have no doubt the talent level on that team was better than their 2-10 record, and now new head coach Scott Satterfield should get the most out of these players. 

Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State where he posted a 51-24 record in his six years there.  Fortunately for Satterfield, the cupboard isn’t bare as the Cardinals return 16 starters.  This should be one of the most improved defenses in the country with 10 starters back on defense. 

Offensively, the Cardinals return six starters, including starting QB Jawon Pass.  He has had a lot of success in the simplified offense in the offseason and is ready to take this offense to the next level.  He has stated that he wants to prove to himself and his teammates that they are better than they showed last year, and now it’s time to prove it on the field in Week 1. 

Notre Dame has 13 starters back and is certainly talented, but they have rarely been this heavy of a road favorite under Brian Kelly.  They will have to replace their top two playmakers in RB Dexter Williams and WR Miles Boykin.  Defensively, the Fighting Irish lose three of their top five tacklers from last year and three NFL draft picks. 

Louisville had been to a bowl game in eight straight seasons prior to going 2-10 last year.  They had also won 8 or more games in six straight seasons coming into 2018.  I just don’t think this program will stay down for long, especially with a coach the caliber of Satterfield running the show.  The Cardinals will give the Fighting Irish more than they bargained for in Week 1.  Roll with Louisville Monday. 

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-126) 

The Minnesota Twins are 7-1 in their last eight games overall with all seven wins coming by two runs or more.  They have handled their business against the bad teams in baseball like the Detroit Tigers, who are 40-94 on the season.  The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with all seven losses coming by two runs or more. 

Jake Odorizzi is having a great season in Minnesota.  He is 14-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Odorizzi owns the Tigers, going 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two starts against the Tigers in 2019, allowing just one run and seven base runners in 13 innings. 

Detroit starter Jordan Zimmerman is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-9 with a. 6.24 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in eight home starts.  Zimmerman is 4-5 with a 6.89 ERA in 10 career starts against Minnesota.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Twins. 

Detroit is 3-22 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better this season.  It is losing by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Minnesota is 13-1 vs. an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.90 or worse this season.  It is winning by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Monday. 

15* Houston/Oklahoma ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 80 

This UNDER bet has a lot to do with Oklahoma.  After having a dominant offense over the last two years with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray running the show, the Sooners are sure to take a big step back offensively this year with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts.  He is just as good of a runner or better than both those guys, but he is nowhere near the passer that they were. 

Not to mention, only four starters return on offense.  The Sooners lose leading receiver Marquise Brown and his 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns to the NFL.  Four NFL draft picks are gone from an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award after being named the nation’s top O-Line.  They have three sophomore starters and just 36 career starts returning up front. 

I expect Oklahoma to have one of the most improved defenses in the country after a subpar season that saw them allow 33.3 points and 454 yards per game.  They fired Mike Stoops midseason and now have replaced him with Alex Grinch, who was the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State last year.  Grinch has a ton of talent and experience to work with as the Sooners return eight starters and eight of their top nine tacklers. 

Houston has some talent on offense with QB D’Eriq King and all of his top playmakers back.  But there will be some growing pains early under new head coach Dana Holgorsen and his new scheme.  His scheme is much more complex than the one they ran last year, and it won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1 against this tough Oklahoma defense. 

Houston was decimated by injuries lsat year down the stretch and the numbers took a hit because of it.  I know that they only have four starters back on defense this year, but this unit can only stay healthier.  And they are more experienced than that considering several players were forced into action due to the injuries.  Houston is projected to start nine upperclassmen, which shows the experience. 

Simply put, I believe this total has been inflated based on what these teams did last year.  The Sooners were 9-4 to the OVER while the Cougars were 10-4 to the OVER last year.  Oddsmakers have been forced to adjust accordingly, and this 80-point total is simply too high now. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Houston) - in non-conference D1 games, with an experienced QB returning as a starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1992.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Cougars last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-121) 

The Minnesota Twins are 6-1 in their last seven games overall with all six wins coming by two runs or more.  After a rare loss to the Tigers yesterday, look for the Twins to bounce back with a blowout victory here Sunday in Game 3 of this series. 

Michael Pineda is having a solid season for the Twins.  He is 10-5 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 24 starts this year, including 7-2 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Pineda has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Tigers. 

Spencer Turnbull is 3-13 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 24 starts for the Tigers this season, including 0-8 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.460 WHIP In 13 road starts.  Turnbull is 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins as well. 

Detroit is 1-17 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or better this season.  It is losing by 5.1 runs per game in this spot.  Minnesota is 9-0 when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  It is winning by 4.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +20.5 

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have been as consistent as they come under 7th-year head coach Skip Holtz.  They have won anywhere from 7 to 9 games over the last five seasons since going just 4-8 in his first year on the job.  It’s a team that has proven they can play with the big boys throughout the years, and they are also a contender to win Conference USA. 

The Bulldogs gave up just 23.0 points per game on defense last year and should be good again on that side of the ball with five of their top eight tacklers back.  The improvements should come on offense after averaging just 24.7 points pre game last year.  That was a real down season for a Holtz offense because they had scored 30-plus points per game in the four seasons prior.  Look for them to get back up above that number this season. 

The offense returns six starters and almost all the top playmakers.  QB J’Mar Smith is back after throwing for 3,160 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for three more.  Leading receiver Adrian Hardy (75 receptions, 1,145 yards, 6 TD) is also back, as is leading rusher Jaqwis Dancy (667 yards, 9 TD).  The offensive line returns three starters and 78 career starts and should stay healthier than last year.  This is the 25th-most experienced team in the country. 

I just don’t understand all the hype for the Texas Longhorns this year.  They are getting a lot of respect for going 10-4 last year and beating Georgia in the bowl.  That was a Georgia team that didn’t want to be there after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game that cost them a spot in the four-team playoff.  And keep in mind seven of Texas’ 10 wins last year came by 7 points or fewer, so they were fortunate in close games.  They only won one game by 20-plus points all season. 

Now Texas is one of the least-experienced teams in the country with just eight starters back.  The defense returns just three starters and loses seven of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  This will probably be Tom Herman’s worst defense since he’s been here.  The offense returns just five starters, loses its leading rusher and receiver, and just two starters are back on the offensive line.  Sam Ehlinger is a nice talent, but he will have his hands full early in the season getting in sync with his O-Line and skill players. 

This is definitely a lookahead spot for Texas.  They have a massive game with LSU on deck next week at home.  They could easily be overlooking Louisiana Tech.  And we’ve seen the Longhorns struggle in these early season games against non-conference teams recently.  They’ve been upset by Maryland as 17 and 13-point favorites each of the last two years.  And they barely beat Tulsa 28-21 at home as 22-point favorites last year. 

Louisiana Tech is 7-1 ATS as a dog of 20-plus points over the last 10 yards.  Skip Holtz is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 20-plus points in his career as a head coach.  Holtz is 27-14 ATS in road games as the coach of Louisiana Tech, including 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog over the past five years.  Herman is just 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.  The Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games overall.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -2.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team on the rise under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  He has improved this team in each of his first three seasons, going from 2-10 in Year 1 to 6-7 in Year 2 and 8-5 in Year 3 last season.  Now he has his best team yet and some stability in the program with how well he has recruited.  The Cavaliers are a legit contender to win the Coastal this year. 

Last year, the Cavaliers lost five games, but three were by 4 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played.  Now they have 14 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters back from a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Cavaliers return stud quarterback Bryce Perkins, which will help make up for the fact that they only return six starters on that side of the ball.  Perkins threw for 2,680 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 923 yards and nine scores.  The offensive line returns three starters and they have 17 offensive linemen on scholarship, so Mendenhall now has the numbers he wants up front. 

Pittsburgh came out of nowhere to win the Coastal last year.  They did so despite finishing with just a 7-7 record, and they clearly weren’t the best team in the Coastal.  Now the Panthers have just 101 starters back this year and I expect them to be one of the worst teams in the division. 

The losses on offense are huge as they return just five starters and lose two 1,000-yard backs in Quadree Ollison (1,213 yards, 11 TD) and Darrin Hall (1,144 yards, 10 TD).  They rushed for 228 yards per game last year, but only passed for 142 per game.  So now they are going to have to throw the ball more with Kenny Pickett, who only completed 58.1% of his passes last year and just isn’t that good.  Only one starter returns on the offensive line and just 37 career starts.  Pickett will struggle once again this season, especially in Week 1 against one of the best defenses in the country. 

Pittsburgh had just a mediocre defense last year that gave up 27.8 points and 388 yards per game.  After having nine starters back on that unit, the Panthers now only have five starters back on defense.  That was supposed to be six, but then their best defender in DE Rashad Weaver (47 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 14 TFL) suffered a season-ending ACL injury in fall camp.  So they now lose four of their top six tacklers and this unit won’t be better than last year. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 13-23 home loss to Pitt as 7-point favorites that ultimately cost them the Coastal.  I think the Cavaliers come into the season with a chip on their shoulder, while Pitt is still feeling fat and happy after winning the division.  The Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -130 

The Minnesota Twins need to be bigger favorites against the hapless Detroit Tigers today.  The Twins have won six straight coming in all by two runs or more.  The Tigers have lost six straight all by two runs or more coming in. 

Martin Perez is 8-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 23 starts this season, 4-2 with a 4.00 ERA in 10 road starts, and 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts.  Perez has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Tigers as well. 

Matt Boyd is 6-10 with a 4.47 ERA in 27 starts this season.  He got off to a great start this year, but has come back down to reality here of late.  Boyd is 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA in his last four starts.  He is also 0-3 with a 7.82 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Twins, yielding 20 earned runs in 23 innings. 

The Tigers are 10-42 in their last 52 home games.  Detroit is 1-11 in Boyd’s 12 starts against a team with a winning record this season.  The Tigers are 1-14 in Boyd’s 15 starts against teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game this season.  Take the Twins Saturday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -127 (Game 1) 

The St. Louis Cardinals are 15-4 in their last 19 games overall and one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are also 4-0 in their last four games following a loss and are coming off a loss to the Brewers.  They had the last two days off and are rested and ready to go today in Game 1 of this double-header with the Reds. 

St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson comes in throwing as well as he has all season.  He is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hudson is also 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 13 home starts this season.  He is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three career starts against the Reds as well. 

Trevor Bauer has really struggled this month and just hasn’t delivered since being traded to Cincinnati.  Bauer is 0-3 with an 11.30 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 7 or more runs in three of his last six starts overall. 

Hudson is 12-1 when starting against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Hudson is 11-0 with a money line of +100 to -150 this season.  The Cardinals are also winning by 3.4 runs per game in this situation.  Bet with the Cardinals in Game 1 Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -5.5 

This game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the pending hurricane, so it will be a home game for the Seminoles.  It’s a Florida State team I’m buying low on early in the season. 

The Seminoles went 5-7 last year for their first losing season since 1976.  They had won 10-plus games in 5 straight years prior to last season.  It was a clear rebuilding year for first-year head coach Willie Taggart.  But unlike most programs, it only takes one year to rebuild Florida State because they recruit so much talent. 

I trust Taggart because he has been a winner everywhere he has gone.  And I think he rights the ship this year with 16 returning starters and a Top 10 recruiting class.  This team will be playing with a chip on their shoulder early.  The hire of offensive coordinator Kendall Briles was one of the best hires in the country. 

Briles guided Houston to 44 points per game & 513 yards per game last year.  In 2017, he was in charge of a Florida Atlantic offense that put up over 40 points pre game and nearly 500 yards per game while winning 11 games.  We saw how much their offense struggled without him last year.  And Briles oversaw a Baylor offense that averaged over 40 points per game and 500 yards per game in his two seasons as coordinator in 2015-16.   

This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country with eight starters back.  Sophomore James Blackman has been named quarterback and I like that move over Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook.  The offensive line was a mess last year, but it won’t be this year.  And the defense should also be vastly improved with eight starters back. 

Boise State has 13 starters back.  They are probably the class of the Mountain West this season, but that’s not saying much.  The biggest concern is losing a 4-year starter at quarterback in Brett Rypien who leaves as the school’s 2nd-leading passer.  Hank Bachmeier is a true freshman who will be making his first start.  He’s talented, but I can’t foresee his first start going well against an opponent the caliber of Florida State.  That’s especially the case the top 2 receivers and leading rusher Alex Mattison also gone from last year’s team. 

In recent years we’ve seen Boise State struggle in these early non-conference games.  They lost by 22 to Ole Miss, by 19 to Virginia and by 23 to Oklahoma State all within the last 5 years.  This is easily one of the toughest non-conference games they’ve ever faced.  Florida State has the talent edge and it’s really not even close.  I expect Taggart to get the most out of that talent starting in Week 1.  Bet Florida State Saturday. 

20* CFB Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rutgers -15 

Rutgers enters the 2019 season with the nation's longest losing streak at 11 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, and I think we are getting them cheap in Week 1 as a result.  They should absolutely crush UMass in their home opener Friday night. 

Rutgers decided to stick with Chris Ash after their 1-11 season.  I think it was a good move to keep some chemistry here and now Ash has easily his best team yet.  And Rutgers wasn’t as bad as their 1-11 record last year either as they nearly beat both Northwestern and Michigan State late in the year.  They lost 15-18 to Northwestern as 20-point dogs and 10-14 at Michigan State as 24-point dogs. 

We saw last year just how underrated this team was down the stretch as Rutgers went 5-0 ATS in its final five games overall while covering against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State.  Four of those five games were competitive and decided by two touchdowns or less, which is impressive against that gauntlet. 

I remember taking Rutgers in their opener last year and they rolled to a 35-7 victory as nearly identical 16-point favorites against Texas State.  UMass is a team that is similar to Texas State talent wise as the Bobcats were one of the worst teams in the country, and this year the Minutemen are the worst team in the country according to Phil Steele, and I certainly agree. 

UMass only returns eight starters this season and is the single least-experienced team in the country this year.  They went 4-8 last season and head coach Mark Whipple stepped down.  In comes Walt Bell, who was the offensive coordinator at Florida State last year in one of the worst offensive seasons in history for the Seminoles.  Whipple certainly left the cupboard very bare here at UMass. 

The Minutemen will certainly have one of the worst defenses in the country, so even a team like Rutgers should be able to score at will on them.  The Minutemen gave up 42.9 points and 485 yards per game last year.  Now they return just three starters on defense and are extremely inexperienced.  They lose their leader in Bryton Barr (147 tackles, 10.5 TFL), who had 75 more tackles than their next leading returning tackler.  This defense could be even worse in 2019. 

The losses are massive on offense as well.  Only five starters return, and they lose all of their top playmakers. UMass loses QB Andrew Ford, who was their starter before going down with injury.  They also lost QB Ross Comes, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio in Ford’s absence.  Also gone is leading rusher Marquise Young as their top returning RB rushed for only 139 yards last year.  And last but certainly not least, stud WR Andy Isabella (102 receptions, 1,698 yards, 13 TD last year) is now in the NFL. 

Rutgers has had a solid defense the last two years, but it’s the offense that has held them back.  They were -14 in turnovers last year and gave the ball away too much.  But with eight starters back on offense, this can only be one of the most improved units in the country.  Ash hasn’t named a starting QB yet, but his team knows who it will be, and that’s all that matters.  Sophomore Artur Sitkowski had a forgettable freshman campaign with 18 interceptions.  So Texas Tech transfer McClane Carter and BC transfer Johnny Langan are now here to push him.  Whoever is under center will have no problem moving the ball against his soft UMass defense. 

Ash has been a double-digit favorite twice the last two years.  He has covered in those games by an average of 17.5 points per game.  UMass is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games during the first two weeks of a season.  The Minutemen are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Independents.  Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Rutgers Friday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-120) 

The Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall and closing in on the Braves in the NL East.  They are on fire at the plate as they have scored at least 7 runs in 11 of those 13 wins.  They should have no problem covering the run line at home against the Marlins Friday. 

Anibal Sanchez is 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 24 starts this season.  He is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA in six career starts against Miami as well.  The Nationals are 6-0 in Sanchez’s last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. 

The Marlins are just 6-20 in their last 26 games overall.  They are at a disadvantage here having played yesterday while the Nationals had yesterday off.  Elieser Hernandez is 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA in five road starts this season for the Marlins.  He has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in two career starts against them. 

Miami is 1-20 in road games vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more homers per game in the second half of the season this season.  They are losing by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Washington is 9-0 vs. an NL team that has an OBP of .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Nationals on the Run Line Friday. 

20* CFB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -2 

The Tulane Green Wave made their first bowl games since 2013 last year and capitalized with a 41-24 win over Louisiana in the Cure Bowl.  Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated coaches in the country with what he is doing down in New Orleans. 

Fritz has gone from 4 to 5 to 7 wins in his first three seasons on the job.  And now he enters Year 4 with his best team yet.  And I love the fact that Fritz realizes this triple-option offense will only carry him so far, so he brought in a new coordinator this year in Will Hall.  He comes over from Memphis and will be running an up-tempo offense that Florida International will not be prepared for. 

The Green Wave return all of their best playmakers on offense for Hall to work with.  QB Justin McMillian is back and is a dual-threat guy.  The top two rushers are back in Darius Bradwell (1,134 yards, 11 TD) and Corey Dauphine (785 yards, 7 TD), as is leading receiver Darnell Mooney (48 receptions, 993 yards, 8 TD). 

I’m also very excited about a defense that returns eight starters and will be the best stop unit that Fritz has had at Tulane.  The Green Wave only had five starters back last year and allowed a respectable 27.5 points per game.  They are loaded up front along the defensive line with all of their starters back, including Patrick Johnson (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks). 

Florida International has exceeded expectations in the first two seasons under Butch Davis.  They have gone 8-5 and 9-4 the last two years and have come very close to winning a C-USA title.  And they have 16 starters back this year and will be solid again, but I just think they’re getting too much respect early in the season. 

FIU feasted on an easy schedule last year as their schedule ranked 123rd in the country.  Tulane played the 79th toughest schedule.  Conference USA in general is one of the weakest conferences in the country, while the AAC is one of the most underrated, which teams like UCF and Cincinnati have proven in recent years.   

FIU only beat two teams that made bowl games last year in Middle Tennessee and Toledo, and they won both those games by a field goal.  Five of Tulane’s six losses last year came against both teams, and three of them were by a touchdown or less.  Four of them were on the road, while the other two at home came in overtime to Wake Forest and by 4 to SMU. 

I think the biggest matchup here that is going to go in our favor is FIU’s inexperienced offensive line up against Tulane’s dominant defensive line, which is the best in the AAC.  FIU only gave up 8 sacks last year, while Tulane had 41 sacks as a team.  But FIU loses three starters along the offensive line and will be tested like they haven’t been yet. 

Not only will the Green Wave control the line of scrimmage on defense, they’ll also control it on offense.  They rushed for 218 yards per game and 4.7 per carry last season and will be potent on the ground again.  FIU’s weakness last year was up front as they allowed 192 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. 

Tulane is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 17.0 points per game in this spot.  Fritz is 6-0 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Tulane.  The Green Wave are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. C-USA opponents, while the Golden Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. AAC foes.  Bet Tulane Thursday.

15* NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Giants +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-115) 

The Minnesota Twins should have no problem beating the Chicago White Sox by two or more runs today to cover the Run Line.  The Twins have won four straight by two runs or more coming in and are handling their business against the teams they are supposed to like the White Sox. 

Minnesota has a big edge on the mound today with Jose Berrios over Dylan Cease.  Berrios is 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He owns the White Sox, going 9-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 12 career starts against them. 

Dylan Cease is 3-6 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in one career start against Minnesota.  He allowed 5 runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 2-6 home loss to the Twins on July 26th. 

The Twins are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Minnesota is 47-19 in its last 66 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 7-1 in Berrios’ last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 8-1 in Berrios’ last nine starts against the White Sox while winning seven of those by two runs or more.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Thursday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) 

The Boston Red Sox are still alive in the AL wild card race.  They need a big finish to get back to the postseason and defend their World Series crown.  They’re playing a Rockies team that is finding it hard to be motivated down the stretch in going 16-35 in their last 51 games overall. 

Eduardo Rodriquez has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He is 15-5 with a 3.92 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts while tossing 14 1/3 shutout innings. 

Conversely, Peter Lambert is one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 1-1 with a. 6.64 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in eight home starts. 

Rodriquez is 24-2 against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are winning by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Rodriquez is also 9-0 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game over the last two years with the Red Sox also winning by 3.4 runs per game in this situation.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

The Cleveland Indians have absolutely owned the Detroit Tigers.  They are 13-1 against the Tigers this season, and 39-12 in their last 51 meetings overall.  I fully expect them to win by two runs or more tonight thanks to their huge edge on the mound. 

Aaron Civale has been given a rotation spot and he’s made the most of it for the Indians.  He has posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in five starts this season.  One of those starts came against Detroit on June 22nd as he pitched six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory. 

Jordan Zimmerman has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-9 with a 6.48 ERA in 17 starts, including 0-6 with an 8.18 ERA in seven home starts.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-6 with a 10.68 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in eight career starts against them. 

The Indians are 0-7 in Zimmerman’s last seven starts against Cleveland.  The Tigers are 11-46 in their last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Indians are 72-29 in their last 101 games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  Cleveland is 18-1 vs. AL teams that score 3.9 or fewer runs per game this season.  It is winning by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -130 

The San Francisco Giants are still very much alive in the NL Wild card.  They are 4.5 games back and one of the teams they are trailing is the Diamondbacks.  After losing Game 1 of this series, I fully expect the Giants to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight. 

San Francisco starter Jeff Samardzija is riding one of the best stretches of his career.  He is 5-3 with a 2.00 ERA in his last 10 starts, allowing just 14 earned runs in 63 innings. 

Mike Leake is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts for the Diamondbacks.  Leake has been awful on the road all season, going 2-7 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 13 starts.  Bet the Giants Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -107 

We are getting the Minnesota Twins at an excellent value Tuesday at basically even money against the Chicago White Sox.  The Twins are trying to win the AL Central as they are in a dog fight with the Indians. 

Michael Pineda is 9-5 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  Pineda is 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in seven career starts against the White Sox, including 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts against them in 2019. 

Lucas Giolito is having a solid season for the White Sox at 14-6 with a 3.20 ERA, but he’s 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 12 home starts.  And Giolito is 4-4 with a 4.77 ERA in nine career starts against Minnesota.  He gave up 7 runs and 4 homers in 5 innings in his last home start against the Twins. 

The Twins are 17-4 on the road with a line of +100 to -150 this season.  Minnesota is 11-1 when revenging a loss where they scored one run or less this season.  Chicago is 1-12 after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  Roll with the Twins Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +103 

Both the Cubs and Mets are coming off series in which they were swept at home.  I trust the Mets to bounce back more here as home underdogs considering the Cubs are just 12-26 in their last 38 road games, while the Mets are 13-4 in their last 17 home games. 

Marcus Stroman has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-11 with a 3.18 ERA in 25 starts this season despite pitching most of it in the tough AL East for the Blue Jays.  Stroman tossed a complete games shutout in his only career start against the Cubs. 

Yu Darvish is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 26 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.  He just gave up 7 runs and 4 homers in 5 1/3 innings to the Giants in his last start. 

Darvish is 0-8 on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.  The Cubs are 0-5 in Darvish’s last five road starts.  The Mets are 24-5 in their last 29 vs. a right-handed starter, including 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 4-0 in Stroman’s last four starts.  Take the Mets Tuesday. 

20* Cardinals/Brewers ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -131 

This is a huge series for the Milwaukee Brewers as they trail the St. Louis Cardinals by 4.5 games for first place in the NL Central.  I expect the Brewers to take Game 1 of this series at home tonight thanks to their edge on the mound. 

Gio Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He has posted a 3.29 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cardinals.  He just faced them on August 20th in his last start and only allowed one run in 5 innings. 

Adam Wainwright is 9-9 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Wainwright has been awful on the road, going 3-6 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against the Brewers on August 21st. 

St. Louis is 2-14 after a 5-game span where the bullpen had a 2.00 ERA or better this season.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in Wainwight’s last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Milwaukee is 9-1 in Gonzalez’s last 10 home starts.  Bet the Brewers Monday. 

20* Steelers/Titans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +102 

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a win Sunday after dropping the first two games of this series to the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Diamondbacks are still very much alive in the wild card race and are trailing the Brewers, so this is a huge game. 

Robbie Ray is the best starter in this game today.  He is 10-7 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 28 starts with 187 K’s in 142 innings.  He has some of the best stuff in the game, and he’s 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.827 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. 

Zach Davies is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 8-6 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in 24 starts this season, 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 11 home starts, and 0-3 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts. 

The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Ray’s last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 0-4 in Davies’ last four starts.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -104 

The Mets will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves.  They’ll take Game 3 today to salvage this series and continue their dominance at home. 

Steven Matz has been dominant at home all season.  He is 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 10 home starts this year.  He is also 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts.  Matz is 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 career starts against the Braves as well. 

Dallas Keuchel is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this game.  He is 4-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six road starts. 

The Mets are 12-1 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous games.  New York is 13-3 in its last 16 home games.  The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 during Game 3 of a series.  New York is 21-7 in its last 28 games overall.  The Mets are 10-2 in Matz’s last 12 home starts.  Bet the Mets Sunday. 

20* Arizona/Hawaii 2019 CFB Season Opener on Hawaii +11 

It’s an exciting time of year with college football starting back up on August 24th.  And I’m expecting we could have a huge upset right out of the gates here as Hawaii is more than capable of hanging toe-to-toe with Arizona in the opener.  I’ll take the whopping 11 points for some insurance, though. 

Hawaii OVER 5.5 is one of my favorite season win total bets this year.  There’s several reasons why I’m high on this team.  They return a whopping 18 starters in Year 4 under head coach Nick Rolovic, and this is easily his best team yet.  That’s saying a lot after the Rainbow Warriors went 8-6 last season. 

QB Cole McDonald was one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not many people heard about.  He threw for 3,875 yards with a 36-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 359 yards and four scores.  Most impressively, he put up those numbers despite missing two starts, and played through a torn ligament in his knee for much of the year. 

Now McDonald is back healthy and heading an offense that returns nine starters after returning just three last year.  This is a much more veteran unit that returns all 5 O-Line starters and adds in an Arizona transfer and two JUCO’s who redshirted last year.  McDonald has two stud receivers in Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward, who combined for 130 receptions, 1,835 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. 

Defensively the Rainbow Warriors should be greatly improved.  They gave up 35.1 points and 440 yards per game last season with just five returning starters.  Now they have nine starters back on defense, including each of their top three tacklers from a year ago.  With how good the offense is going to be, the defense just needs to be average for this team to win its share of games. 

Arizona UNDER 6.5 is one of my favorite win total bets as well, so this is an easy choice here.  The Wildcats went just 5-7 in Kevin Sumlin’s first season on the job after he was oustered from Texas A&M.  Sumlin has always been able to recruit decently, but he’s just obviously not a very good head coach. 

You’re going to hear a lot about Arizona QB Khalil Tate once again this season.  He was among the Heisman favorites last year, but injuries hampered him last year and he hardly used his dual-threat ability, only rushing for 224 yards and two touchdowns.  He had to become a pocket passer, which he’s clearly not as he completed just 56.3% of his passes last year.  I think he’s one of the most overrated players in college football, and he’ll once again be protected by the play calling because he means to much to their team, so he won’t run that much. 

Making matters worse for Tate is that each of his top four receivers from last year are now gone.  The Wildcats are expected to start a pair of freshmen at receiver, and chemistry and communication will be an issue in Game 1.  I think their offense will be fine, but it’s no more potent than what Hawaii will put on the field with McDonald and company. 

Defensively, the Wildcats are no better than Hawaii, either.  They gave up 32.6 points per game and 432 yards per game last season despite having eight returning starters.  They also have eight starters back this season on D, so the improvements can’t be great.  This is one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 and the talent level just isn’t there to make much progress. 

Last year, Arizona lost at home to BYU 23-28 as 10-point favorites.  They also lost at Houston 18-45 as 3-point underdogs.  The year before they lost at home to Houston 16-19.  And the year before that, they lost at home to BYU 16-18.  They have obviously been vulnerable early in the season in non-conference play, and I think that’s the case here against a Hawaii team that is one of the most underrated in the country. 

Last year, Hawaii went 4-1 in non-conference play en route to a 6-1 start.  They upset Colorado State as 16-point road dogs, upset Navy as 11-point home dogs, and beat both Rice and Duquesne handily.  Their only loss in the non-conference was at Army 21-28, and that was a terrible body clock game that started at 9:00 AM for them.  They hung right with an Army team for four quarters that won a school-record 11 games last year. 

Hawaii is notoriously underrated to start each season, going 26-11 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.  Arizona is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Wildcats are just 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in all games played away from home the last three years.  Arizona is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 true road games.  The Rainbow Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Hawaii Saturday. 

15* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -3 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+110) 

The Cardinals are fighting for an NL central title, while the Rockies are out of playoff contention.  The Cardinals are playing like it, going 11-3 in their last 14 games overall with nine of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Rockies are just 14-32 in their last 46 games overall. 

Dakota Hudson is also one of the hottest starters in baseball.  He is 2-0 with a. 1.08 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 5-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 home starts this season. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in four road starts. 

Hudson is 11-1 against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Hudson is 10-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Cardinals are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-6 in Gonzalez’s last six starts.  St. Louis is 8-1 in its last nine home games.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-145) 

Instead of laying -300 or more on the Twins money line, I’ll back the Twins at a much cheaper price of -145 here on the run line.  They are fighting for an AL Central title and will be highly motivated following an upset loss to the Detroit Tigers yesterday. 

Edwin Jackson is arguably the worst starter in baseball, and the Twins should feast on him tonight.  Jackson is 2-5 with an 8.25 ERA and 1.834 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.68 ERA and 2.514 WHIP in three road starts.  He is also 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota. 

Kyle Gibson is having a solid season for the Twins at 11-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Gibson has had great success against the Tigers of late, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against them. 

The Tigers are 14-49 in their last 63 games following a win.  Detroit is 12-43 in its last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss.  Minnesota is 44-20 in Gibson’s last 64 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 6-2 in Gibson’s last eight starts against the Tigers.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Saturday. 

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans PK 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-111) 

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Cardinals are fighting for an NL Central title and have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with eight of those wins coming by two runs or more.  The Rockies are just 14-31 in their last 45 games overall and have fallen out of playoff contention. 

The Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound tonight.  Jack Flaherty is 7-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.104 WHIP In 25 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 12 home starts.  He is 3-0 with a minuscule 0.35 ERA in four starts this month, allowing just one earned run in 26 innings with 31 K’s. 

Peter Lambert is 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  It hasn’t gone any better of late for Lambert, who is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts. 

The Rockies are 2-9 in Lambert’s last 11 starts.  Colorado is 7-22 in its last 29 road games.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games.  St. Louis is 5-1 in Flaherty’s last six starts.  The Cardinals are 41-19 in their last 60 vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 22-6 in its last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Cardinals are 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, and 37-14 in the last 51 meetings in St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-148) 

The Minnesota Twins have a very easy schedule here down the stretch.  I like the fact that they had yesterday off, while Detroit played in Houston.  So they have the rest advantage, as well as the advantage in every phase of the game and should have no problem winning by two runs or more Friday night. 

Ace Jose Berrios is 10-6 with a 3.337 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.228 WHIP In 11 home starts.  Berrios has owned the Tigers of late, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last four starts against them, allowing just 7 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings with 29 K’s. 

Drew Verhagen is 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in three starts this season for the Tigers.  He is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA and 2.422 WHIP in his two road starts as well.  He is no match for a potent Twins lineup that is scoring 5.8 runs per game this season and has the most HR’s in baseball. 

Minnesota is 10-1 after scoring one run or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 10-44 in their last 54 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Minnesota is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Friday. 

15* Bills/Lions CBS No-Brainer on Buffalo -3 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* NFLX Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-135) 

The Nationals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for months.  They are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and have scored 11 or more runs in five of their last seven games coming in.  The Pirates are 8-29 since the All-Star Break and offering little resistance to teams in contention like the Nationals right now. 

Washington will be excited to win this game for Max Scherzer, who makes his return from the disabled list.  He hasn’t pitched since July 25th, but this guy is a warrior and will be just fine.  Scherzer is 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 20 starts this season with 189 K’s in 134 1/3 innings.  He is also 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.863 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh. 

Steven Brault is overmatched here.  He is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has already walked 26 batters in 60 innings.  He is only averaging 5.0 innings per start, so the Nationals should get into the weak Pirates’ bullpen early in this one. 

Washington is 27-8 in its last 35 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nationals are 7-1 in Scherzer’s last eight starts.  Washington is 40-16 in Scherzer’s last 56 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 3-14 in its last 17 home games.  The Pirates are 0-7 in Brault’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Brault’s last five starts overall.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Thursday. 

15* NFLX Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +3 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -119 

Great value here with Mike Minor and the Texas Rangers as small home favorites over the Los Angeles Angels.  Both teams have gassed bullpens after playing a double-header yesterday, and after playing two 11-inning games the last two days.  So we want the starter that is going to go deeper, and that is certainly Minor. 

Minor is having a tremendous season.  He is 11-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Minor comes in pitching very well at 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.189 WHIP In six career starts against them. 

Patrick Sandoval gets the ball making just his third start of the season for the Angels.  He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two starts, averaging just 4.5 innings per start.  He’s likely to get roughed up early in this one as well, which will get into that tired Angels bullpen. 

The Angels are 21-49 in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Los Angeles is 3-9 in its last 12 road games.  The Rangers are 9-3 in Minor’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Texas is 6-1 in its lsat seven home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Rangers Wednesday. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -144 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are still fighting for a playoff spot just 4 games back in the wild card.  The Colorado Rockies are 9.5 games back and basically done for.  The Diamondbacks have the motivational and pitching edge tonight over the Rockies. 

Alex Young has held his own this season, going 4-3 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in eight starts for Arizona. Young fired six scoreless innings while allowing just one base runner in a 5-3 win over the Rockies in his lone start against them this season on July 7th. 

Kyle Freeland has been a disaster all season.  He is 3-10 with a 7.08 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He has not had any success against the Diamondbacks this year, either.  Freeland is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against Arizona in 2019, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 15 innings. 

The Rockies are 6-20 in their lsat 26 road games.  The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Arizona is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, and 4-0 in the last four home meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-104) 

The Minnesota Twins will want to bounce back from a 6-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this series.  They should be able to come back with a victory by multiple runs in Game 2 thanks to their edge at the plate and on the mound. 

Michael Pineda is 8-5 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 22 starts this season for the Twins.  Pineda has been as steady as they come, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts.  He is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last seven starts coming in.  Pineda has faced Chicago twice in 2019, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA while allowing just 3 earned runs in 13 innings. 

Reynaldo Lopez is 7-10 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Lopez is 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA in five career starts against Minnesota as well.  He allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 2/3 innings of a 4-11 loss at Minnesota on May 24th in his lone start against the Twins this season. 

The White Sox are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 1-5 in its last six games following a win.  The Twins are 42-15 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Minnesota is 42-17 in its last 59 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the White Sox.  Roll with the Twins on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -147 

The Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 7-1 in their last eight games overall and closing in on the Atlanta Braves.  They are having as much fun as any team as well as you can see it with their reactions after every home run. 

There have been a bunch of home runs for the Nationals lately.  Indeed, the Nationals have hit 16 homers over their last three games and have scored a combined 62 runs in their last five games.  They had four homers and 11 extra-base hitts in Monday’s 13-0 victory over the Pirates. 

Stephen Strasburg is 15-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Strasburg owns the Pirates, going 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  He’ll be opposed by Chris Archer, who is 3-9 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.40-7 WHIP in 22 starts this season. 

The Pirates are just 7-28 in their last 35 games overall and finding it hard to be motivated on a nightly basis now that they’re in last place in the NL Central.  Pittsburgh is 1-10 in home games off a loss by 8 runs or more over the last three seasons.  Washington is 44-13 in Strasburg’s last 57 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 0-7 in Archer’s last seven starts.  Take the Nationals Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110) 

The Minnesota Twins just swept the Texas Rangers in four games over the weekend while scoring a combined 35 runs in the process.  Now they hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the division and play 26 of their final 38 games against the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. 

The Twins should stay hot at the plate against Ivan Nova of the White Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday.  Nova is 8-9 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Nova is 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins. 

Kyle Gibson owns the White Sox, going 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He is also 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts against Chicago, giving up just 3 earned runs in 19 innings with 25 K’s. 

Gibson is 20-4 in his career against a team that is outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game in the second half of the season.  The Twins are winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Minnesota is 13-3 in Gibson’s last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 42-16 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Twins on the Run Line Monday. 

15* 49ers/Broncos ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +1.5 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -115 

The Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring an average of 9.4 runs per game during this stretch.  That includes 14, 16 and 17 runs in three of their last four coming in. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-27 in their last 34 games overall and finding it hard to get motivated.  They’ll certainly have a hard time getting motivated today after playing the division rival Cubs in the MLB Little League World Series Classic last night on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. 

Joe Ross has earned his spot in the Nationals’ rotation by going 3-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three.  Ross is also 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. 

Trevor Williams is 5-5 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts.  Not to mention, Williams is 2-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in eight home starts this year. 

The Nationals are 25-7 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 20-7 in Ross’ last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 home games.  Pittsburgh is 1-10 in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 1-5 in Williams’ last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Nationals Monday. 

15* Saints/Chargers CBS No-Brainer on New Orleans -1.5 

No analysis for preseason. 

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Twins +128 

The Minnesota Twins should not be underdogs to the Texas Rangers today.  The Twins are in a battle with the Indians for the AL Central division title and highly motivated.  The Rangers are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall to fall out of playoff contention and are having a hard time getting motivated. 

The Twins have scored 29 combined runs in winning each of the first three games in this series.  They’ll provide Martin Perez with plenty of run support again today as he takes on his former team.  Perez is 7-5 with a. 4.36 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 4.04 ERA in nine road starts. 

Lance Lynn is having a good season at 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 25 starts, including 9-1 with a 3.94 ERA in 12 home starts.  However, that record is getting him too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is easily one of Lynn’s toughest tests of the season here against the red hot Twins. 

The Twins are 5-0 in Perez’s last five starts vs. AL west opponents.  Minnesota is 6-1 in its last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rangers are 0-7 in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Texas is 7-22 in its last 29 during Game 4 of a series.  Minnesota is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the Twins Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -151 

The Minnesota Twins are taking advantage of their easy schedule moving forward, winning the first two games of this series with the Rangers while scoring 17 runs in the process.  The Rangers are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall and will find it hard to be motivated now that they have fallen out of playoff contention. 

The Twins have a big edge on the mound tonight behind Jose Berrios, who is 10-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Berrios has been really good on the road as well at 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 13 starts away from home. 

Ariel Jurado is 5-7 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  It’s amazing that the Rangers continue to send him out there, especially after he just allowed 8 earned runs and 12 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in a 4-19 loss at Toronto last time out. 

The Twins are 17-4 in their last 21 Saturday games.  Minnesota is 41-14 in its lsat 55 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Twins are 6-1 in Berrios’ last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rangers are 1-6 in Jurado’s last seven starts.  Texas is 0-4 in Jurado’s last four home starts.  The Rangers are 0-6 in their last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Twins Saturday. 

15* NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans -4.5 

No analysis for preseason. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -110 

The Philadelphia Phillies have awoken and should be bigger favorites here over the Padres.  They have won four straight coming in while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process, which has coincided with Charlie Manuel being named hitting coach.  The Padres are 1-4 in their last five games overall. 

Zach Eflin returns to the rotation and should find some success against a weak Padres lineup that is missing arguably their best hitter in Fernando Tatis Jr.  Eflin has a 3.00 ERA in one career starts against San Diego. 

Dinelson Lamet is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in seven starts while averaging just 5.0 innings per start. 

The Padres are 3-13 in Lamet’s last 16 starts.  San Diego is 0-11 in Lamet’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Phillies are 6-0 in Eflin’s last six home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Philadelphia wins its 5th straight tonight.  Take the Phillies Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros -1.5 (-116) 

The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory Friday night.  They have lost three straight overall and four of their last five coming in for a rare bad stretch.  But now they have ace Justin Verlander on the mound to stop the bleeding and a big edge over Tanner Roark. 

Verlander is 15-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.855 WHIP in 25 starts this season with a whopping 217 K’s in 162 2/3 innings.  He is 18-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 27 career starts against Oakland, including 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against them in 2019, giving up just one earned run in 14 innings with 19 K’s. 

Tanner Roark is 7-8 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Roark is 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

The Astros are 21-5 in Verlander’s last 26 road starts, including 14-3 in his last 17 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Houston is 41-13 in its last 54 vs. AL West opponents.  Houston is 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, including 5-0 in Verlander’s last five starts against the A’s.  Oakland is 1-4 in its last five games following a win.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -118 

The Atlanta Braves want to make a statement in this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and let them know they’ll be a force in the postseason.  The Dodgers don’t have a lot to play for at this point and certainly could be going through the motions down the stretch. 

But the big reason to back the Braves today is due to their edge on the mound.  Mike Soroka is 10-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Soroka is 0-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

Kenta Maeda has been one of the few weak links in the Dodgers’ rotation.  He is 8-8 with a 4.15 ERA in 23 starts this season, 2-5 with a 5.66 ERA in 12 road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.58 ERA in his last three starts overall. 

The Dodgers are 3-8 in Maeda’s last 11 road starts.  The Braves are 6-1 in Soroka’s last seven home starts.  Atlanta is 11-1 in Soroka’s last 12 starts when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Braves Friday. 

25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Panthers UNDER 40.5 

No Analysis for Preseason. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -160 

The Minnesota Twins are just 0.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians for first place in the AL Central.  We know we’re going to get their best effort night in and night out.  The same cannot be said for the Texas Rangers, who are 10-18 in their last 28 games overall. 

Michael Pineda comes back off the disabled list to start this game for the Twins Thursday.  Pineda is 7-5 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA in his last six starts.  In fact, Pineda has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 15 starts overall. 

Pedro Payano will be making his fourth start of the season for the Rangers.  He is 0-1 with a 4.98 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in three starts this season while averaging just 4.2 innings per start.  He has allowed 27 base runners in 12 2/3 innings as walks (10) continue to be an issue. 

The Twins are 7-1 in their last eight during Game 1 of a series.  Minnesota is 35-16 in its last 51 games following a loss.  The Rangers are 2-7 in their last nine home games off a road trip of seven or more days.  Texas is 5-13 in its last 18 vs. a right-handed starter.  Minnesota is 7-1 in Pineda’s last eight starts following a loss in their previous game.  The Twins are 40-14 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  Bet the Twins Thursday. 

15* Raiders/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona -1.5 

No Analysis for Preseason. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -139 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are right in the thick of the wild card race but nobody is talking about them.  They are just 2.5 games back after going 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.  They are swinging a hot bat right now as they have scored at least 6 runs in in six of those 10 contests. 

The Diamondbacks should stay hot at the plate against the awful Kyle Freeland, who is 3-10 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Freeland is 2-4 with a 9.50 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in nine starts at Coors Field this year.  He has faced the Diamondbacks twice in 2019, going 0-1 with a 13.00 ERA while allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 innings. 

Arizona has the clear edge on the mound tonight behind Robbie Ray.  The left-hander is 10-7 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 185 K’s in 140 innings.  Ray is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Rockies this season while allowing just 4 earned runs in 12 innings. 

The Rockies are 13-33 in their last 46 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Ray’s last seven starts.  Colorado is 1-11 in its last 12 vs. a left-handed starter.  The Rockies are 1-5 in Freeland’s last six starts.  Arizona is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-182) Game 1 

The Houston Astros should have no problem beating the Chicago White Sox by multiple runs in Game 1 today.  The Astros are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall with 16 of those wins coming by two runs or more.  They should have no problem winning by multiple runs in Game 1 of this doubleheader Tuesday. 

The Astros and Zack Greinke both are rejuvenated after trading for him before the deadline.  Greinke is 11-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 13 starts. 

Dylan Cease is overmatched here.  He is 2-4 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in six starts this season despite facing a pretty weak slate of lineups in the Tigers (twice), Royals, Rays, Mets and Twins.  He gave up 5 runs in 5 innings to the Twins, which is the best lineup he faced.  And this will be his toughest test yet against an Astros lineup that has scored 7 or more runs in seven of their last nine games overall. 

Houston is 30-5 in road games after batting .333 or better over a three-game span over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Astros are 31-6 in road games vs. teams that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  The White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line in Game 1 Tuesday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+105) 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the worst teams in baseball right now.  They are 4-23 in their last 27 games overall and have lost 17 of those games by two runs or more.  The Cardinals have won each of the first two games of this series by multiple runs and I think they complete the series sweep in the same fashion today. 

Miles Mikolas has been dominant at home this season, going 5-5 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.977 WHIP In 11 starts.  Mikolas has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in nine career starts against Pittsburgh.  He is 2-1 with a 2.05 WHIP in his last three starts against the Pirates this season. 

Steven Brault has a 3.35 ERA despite a 1.469 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start, so the Cardinals should get into their bullpen early.  Brault has never beaten the Cardinals, posting an 8.02 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He hallowed 6 runs and 11 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his only start against the Cardinals this season. 

Mikolas is 16-4 in day games over the last two season with the Cardinals winning by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Brault’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 44-20 in its last 64 home meetings with Pittsburgh, and 22-8 in the last 30 meetings overall.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* Cowboys/49ers NFLX ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -4 

No Analysis for Preseason. 

15* Nationals/Mets NL East No-Brainer on New York -118

The New York Mets are the hottest team in baseball.  They are 14-1 in their last 15 games overall and closing in hard on a wild card spot in the National League.  They are feeling like they can’t lose right now, especially after coming back from a 6-3 deficit in the bottom of the 9th to win in walk off fashion last night. 

New York starter Noah Syndergaard has really turned it on lately.  He is 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 7 earned runs in 35 1/3 innings.  He has given up just 4 earned runs in 14 innings for a 2.57 ERA in his last two starts against the Nationals this season as well. 

Patrick Corbin has been great at home for the Nationals, but it has been a different story on the road.  Corbin is 3-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  Corbin hasn’t fared very well against the Mets either, going 2-5 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 career starts against them. 

The Mets are 9-0 in their last nine games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  New York is 7-2 in Syndergaard’s last nine starts.  The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.  New York is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the Mets Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-134) 

The Atlanta Braves are raking right now having scored a combined 33 runs in their last four games overall.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against the Miami Marlins and easily win this game by two runs or more to cover the run line for us. 

Ace Mike Soroka gets the ball for the Braves.  He is 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 6-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Soroka has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Sandy Alcantara is 4-10 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 22 starts for the Marlins, including 0-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in his last three.  He gave up 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 innings in his only start against the Braves back in April. 

Soroka is 11-0 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse over the last two seasons with the Braves winning by 4.0 runs per game in this spot.  Soroka is also 10-0 vs. a team with a losing record this season with the Braves winning by 4.1 runs per game.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -136 

The St. Louis Cardinals were tied for first place in the NL Central just a week ago.  But they’ve lost five straight since during a very tough five-game road trip at Oakland and at the LA Dodgers.  Now they’re back home and highly motivated for a win Friday night. 

Fortunately, the Cardinals get to face Chris Archer and the hapless Pirates, who have gone 4-21 in their last 25 games overall.  Archer is 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 7.14 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in nine road starts. 

Dakota Hudson has held his own for the Cardinals this season, going 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA in 22 starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 10 starts. 

Hudson is 8-0 with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  St. Louis is 8-0 in Hudson’s last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Archer’s last six starts.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing St. Louis tonight.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

15* NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Saints -2.5 

No Analysis in the Preseason. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-150) 

The Houston Astros are unstoppable right now.  They are feeling good after trading for Zack Greinke and are now the World Series favorites.  They are playing like it, going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while winning all nine games by at least two runs. 

That’s why I’ll take them on the Run Line today instead of laying -230 with Wade Miley on the mound.  Miley is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 23 starts this season, including 2-0 with a. 1.89 ERA in his last three starts.  Miley is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Orioles, pitching 12 shutout innings. 

Dylan Bundy is 5-11 with a 5.11 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA in 11 home starts.  Bundy is 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA in four career starts against Houston.  He’ll be up against a hot Houston lineup that has scored at least 7 runs in five of their last six games overall coming in. 

Bundy is 1-18 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are losing by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Miley is 12-1 as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Houston is 21-5 in its last 26 games following an off day.  The Astros are 22-5 in the last 27 meetings.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

25* AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Royals -133 

The Detroit Tigers won yesterday in walk off fashion.  They haven’t won two games in a row since winning sthree straight from May 28-31.  The Tigers are now 0-12 in their last 12 games following a win.  We’ll gladly fade them tonight considering they are starting the worst pitcher in baseball. 

Edwin Jackson keeps coming back from the grave.  He was in Toronto earlier this season and went 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA and 2.238 WHIP in five starts, giving up 26 earned runs, 8 homers and 44 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Somehow, the Tigers managed to pick him up after that.  Jackson is 3-5 with a 5.72 ERA in eight career starts against Kansas City. 

Brad Keller has been the best starter for the Royals this season.  He is 7-11 with a 3.95 ERA in 24 starts, including 1-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts against the Twins, Blue Jays and Braves, so he has fared well recently against some great lineups.  Keller is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in four career starts against Detroit as well. 

Detroit is 1-16 as a home dog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Tigers are 0-11 after scoring 8 runs or more this season.  Jackson is 2-15 at home with a total of 10 to 10.5 in his career.  Bet the Royals Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +115 

The New York Mets are the hottest team in baseball.  They are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 0.5 games of the second wild card spot in the National League.  Now they get to play the Nationals, who own the first wild card spot currently. 

Somehow, the Mets are getting no respect here as home underdogs with Marcus Stroman on the mound.  Stroman has posted a 3.07 ERA in 22 starts this season, which is impressive considering he pitched in the brutal AL East before getting traded to New York. 

Stephen Strasburg is getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  He is 14-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 23 starts, but he’s coming off a start in which he allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings to the Diamondbacks.  He is shaken and vulnerable right now. 

The Mets are 8-0 in their last eight home games.  New York is 4-0 in its last four meetings with Washington.  Take the Mets Friday.