|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-19-12||Denver Nuggets +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies||97-92||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +7
The Memphis Grizzlies are way overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak. Sure, this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, but they are not 7 points better than the Nuggets tonight.
Denver comes in undervalued due to a 4-6 start which includes a three-game losing streak. It will be highly motivated to put an end to this skid tonight. It will also want to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this series with the Grizzlies with three straight losses by 3 points or less.
The Nuggets also come in the fresher team as this will only be their 3rd game in 7 days. The Grizzlies will be a bit fatigued playing their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Nuggets, who like to push the ball up the court and fast break more than any other team in the league.
The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a S.U. loss. The Nuggets are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 road games. The Grizzlies are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Nuggets Monday.
|11-19-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Charlotte Bobcats +5.5||98-102||Win||100||7 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as a 5.5-point home underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. There's no question that this Bobcats team is improved from a year ago, but they aren't getting treated like it from oddsmakers.
Charlotte has opened 4-4 this season and it is way undervalued right now. It has won three of its last four with its only loss to the Grizzlies, who are currently on an 8-game winning streak. This is basically a completely new team and one that will be a lot more competitive all season.
The Bobcats made some great improvements to their roster this offseason with the additions of Ramon Sessions (15.8 PPG, 4.2 APG), Ben Gordon (13.8 PPG, 42.3% 3-pointers), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (11.2 PPG, 1.6 BPG, 7.0 RPG) and Brendan Haywood (7.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG).
Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to its 6-2 start. Only one of those six wins has come against a team with a winning record, and that was the mediocre Boston Celtics (6-5). There's no question that the Bucks are improved this season as well, but they should not be this heavily favored on the road against the Bobcats tonight.
Milwaukee is 45-72 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Bucks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Milwaukee is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.
|11-18-12||Chicago Bulls v. Portland Trail Blazers +1||94-102||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +1
The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back, so they'll be tired heading into this one.
This play falls into a system that is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in non-conference games. Bet the Blazers Sunday.
|11-18-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +4||13-10||Win||100||49 h 11 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +4
The Steelers have been a resilient team with injuries all season. They have been without arguably their two best defensive players in Troy Polamalu and James Harrison for more than half the season, yet they
|11-18-12||Richmond +10.5 v. Minnesota||57-72||Loss||-105||6 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +10.5
The Richmond Spiders are showing solid value as a double-digit underdog today to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Richmond is off to a 3-0 start with three wins by double-digits. This team is for real.
This play falls into a system that is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.
Minnesota is 6-16 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Spiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Richmond is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Bet Richmond Sunday.
|11-18-12||Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||19-23||Win||100||92 h 59 m||Show|
20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +10
The Cardinals are coming off their bye week, which couldn
|11-18-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5 v. Houston Texans||37-43||Win||100||42 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5
Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been incredible against the spread over the last several years. Oddsmakers have to set these spreads extra high to get even action on both sides in games featuring one team with one of the worst records in the NFL, and one with the best.
That provides "sharp bettors" such as myself a chance to back the undervalued underdog at a number that is better than it should be. Houston is not more than two touchdowns better than Jacksonville in this one, and I fully expect the Jaguars to take this one right down to the wire because of several different factors.
First, the Jaguars have played their best football on the road. That makes sense because they cannot be too excited to play at home when there are so many empty seats in the stands. Jacksonville is 1-3 SU but 3-0-1 ATS in road games this season. It won at Indianapolis 22-17, and it's three losses have come against the Vikings (23-26), Raiders (23-26) and Packers (15-24). As you can see, it stay within 9 points in all three of its road losses.
Houston finds itself in a letdown spot after a big win at Chicago on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Jacksonville team that it already beat 27-7 on the road in the first meeting. The Texans will come into this game feeling like they just have to show up to win. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be looking at this game like it's their Super Bowl.
This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
The Texan are 1-9 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Jaguars are 15-5 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-17-12||Chicago Bulls +6.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||80-101||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +6.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have played very well against the top teams in the league this season. However, they have been prone to the letdown with home losses to the Warriors and Clippers as well.
I believe the Clippers are overvalued here tonight after their home win over the Miami Heat on Wednesday. In fact, they have won four straight games heading in. That means the betting public is going to be all over them, and oddsmakers know this. They are in a letdown spot here after that Heat win.
Chicago is a team that rarely gets blown out and is in every game. All three of its losses have come by 7 points or less this season. The Bulls are 2-0 on the road this year and will be looking forward to this contest at Los Angeles Saturday.
The Bulls are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Clippers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central opponents. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 in this series. Bet the Bulls Saturday.
|11-17-12||Davidson v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5||68-73||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has returned three starters from last season, including F James Haarsma (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG). The good news about that is three new starters in Jordan Aaron (20.0 PPG), Lyle Kelm (10.0 PPG) and Thierno Niang (10.0 PPG) are leading the team in scoring through two games.
The Panthers have opened 1-1 with their only loss coming at South Carolina by a final of 75-82. I'd say that's a pretty good loss as they hung with a BCS school. Davidson also has an 81-86 loss at New Mexico, and I simply believe that this team is way overvalued as a big road favorite Saturday.
The Wildcats are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games. Davidson is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS n road games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.
|11-17-12||Utah State -3 v. Louisiana Tech||Top||48-41||Win||100||65 h 23 m||Show|
25* WAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State -3
The Utah State Aggies are one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. As a result, they continue going under the radar and killing the books at the pay window for people who are willing to back them. I am one of those people, and I will do so again Saturday.
Utah State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined 5 points. It missed a last second-field goal at Wisconsin, and it lost by only a field goal at BYU. This team has won by 7 points or more in all eight of its victories, including six wins by 22 points or more.
Louisiana Tech is obviously a quality team at 9-1, but it has played a much softer schedule than Utah State. Its lone loss came to Texas A&M at home, and its nine wins have come against Houston (4-6), Rice (4-6), Illinois (2-8), Virginia (4-7), UNLV (2-9), Idaho (1-9), New Mexico State (1-9), UTSA (6-4) and Texas State (3-6).
As you can see, only one of their nine wins have come against a team with a winning record, and those teams have combined for a 27-66 record. I would have to say that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as their record, and that will show on the field Saturday.
Utah State is a complete team. It ranks 25th in the country in total offense (463.2 yards/game), including 40th in rushing (187.1 yards/game) and 33rd in passing (275.9 yards/game). It ranks 12th in total defense (303.3 yards/game), including 5th against the run (94.6 yards/game) and 37th against the pass (208.7 yards/game).
Unlike the Aggies, the Bulldogs have some weaknesses, especially on the defensive side of the ball, which will be the difference in this game. Louisiana Tech ranks 121st in total defense (505.7 yards/game), including 117th against the pass (337.8 yards/game). Utah State will get more stops than Louisiana Tech in this one.
Utah State is 9-0 ATS in all games this season. Once again, it is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as only a 3-point favorite against a much inferior Louisiana Tech team. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-17-12||North Carolina State +17 v. Clemson||48-62||Win||100||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on NC State +17
First and foremost, the NC State Wolfpack have the talent to stay with Clemson Saturday aside from any outside motivational factors. They proved that last season while knocking Clemson out of the Top 10 with a 37-13 victory over the Tigers.
Aside from the fact that NC State has the talent to hang with Clemson, a big reason I'm taking the Wolfpack is because this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers. Florida State, a 31-point favorite over Maryland Saturday, would win the ACC Atlantic division with a win. A loss would send Clemson to the ACC title game if the Tigers beat the Wolfpack.
That FSU/Maryland game kicks off at 12:00 EST, and it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Seminoles are going to win against a Terrapins team playing with their 5th string QB. The Clemson/NC State game kicks off at 3:30 EST, and these Tigers players will surely get wind of the fact that FSU beat Maryland before kickoff.
With the realization that they won't be playing in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand with little to play for. Remember, this is an NC State team that handed Florida State its only loss of the season, so it has proven it can win big games.
Mike Glennon threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson in last season's 37-13 win. Glennon is having another solid season, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,910 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He will be able to keep the Wolfpack in this game with his ability to move the ball through the air.
NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 16.0 points/game. The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Clemson. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet NC State Saturday.
|11-17-12||Wake Forest +24 v. Notre Dame||0-38||Loss||-110||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* Wake Forest/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Wake Forest +24
While the Fighting Irish are 10-0 this season, they haven
|11-17-12||USC -3 v. UCLA||28-38||Loss||-115||64 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -3
The Trojans are the most talented three-loss team in the entire country. They gave Oregon by far their toughest game so far with a 62-51 home loss to the Ducks. Their other two losses came to Stanford and Arizona on the road by a combined 10 points.
|11-17-12||Kent State v. Bowling Green -2.5||31-24||Loss||-107||61 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -2.5
The Bowling Green Falcons and Kent State Golden Flashes have both had amazing seasons to this point with little expected out of them coming into the year. It's unfortunate that somebody has to lose this game, but at the same time it's amazing that the winner will have the inside track to the MAC East division title, which means a trip to the MAC Championship.
While I have a bunch of respect for both teams, I have no question that the right play is to back Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown. Kent State is at least getting some love from oddsmakers because of their win over Rutgers earlier this season, but Bowling Green continues to get no respect.
Remember, the Falcons are the team that took Florida right down to the wire in their opener. This was a 17-14 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Gators scored 10 unanswered points int he final period to win 27-14. Their other two losses came on the road against very good Virginia Tech and Toledo teams.
Bowling Green is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 32.5 to 9.0, or by an average of 23.5 points/game. The biggest reason the Falcons are going to win this game is because of their defense, which ranks 6th in the country allowing just 285.4 yards/game.
More specifically, the Falcons have a huge edge in the ground game, which is where this contest will be won. Bowling Green ranks 14th in the country against the run (103.7 yards/game, 3.3/carry), so it will be able to limit a Kent State rushing attack that ranks 15th at 235.7 yards/game.
Kent State does not move the ball through the air very well, ranking just 111th in passing offense (166.7 yards/game). So, when Bowling Green shuts down their running game, the Golden Flashes will have nowhere to turn. Also, Kent State ranks just 77th in total defense (414.2 yards/game).
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Bowling Green is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Bowling Green Saturday.
|11-16-12||Phoenix Suns +9 v. Los Angeles Lakers||102-114||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +9
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as a 9-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The hype surrounding the Lakers and head coach Mike D'Antoni has them way overvalued right now.
Remember, this is just a 3-5 Lakers team that is trying to find its way. It's going to take a few weeks for these players to catch on to D'Antoni's system. The Lakers' three wins have come at home against teams that are a combined 7-18.
Phoenix has won three of its last five contests coming in. Its only losses came at Utah and at home in overtime to the Chicago Bulls. This team is better than it gets credit for, and unlike the Lakers, the Suns are undervalued at this point of the season.
The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Lakers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Suns Friday.
|11-16-12||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -1.5||117-119||Win||100||20 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5
The Portland Trail Blazers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight against the Houston Rockets. Portland is hungry to put an end to three-game home losing streak, and I expect them to do so against a Houston team that it beat on the road 95-85 on November 3rd.
Houston is overvalued due to James Harden. The former OKC Thunder guard has been putting up big numbers in Houston, but he doesn't make this an elite team. However, bettors like to back star players like Harden, which is why the Rockets are overvalued. Their four wins have come against the Pistons twice, Hawks and Hornets.
Portland is undervalued this season because it doesn't have any star players. LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum are two of the most underrated players in the entire league. Point guard Damian Lillard is well on his way to earning Rookie of the Year honors, too.
The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rockets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a 21-1 (95%) system backing Portland. Roll with the Blazers Friday.
|11-16-12||Notre Dame -3 v. St. Joseph's||70-79||Loss||-110||19 h 17 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the St. Joseph's Hawks. Both teams return five starters, but there's no question that the No. 21 Fighting Irish are the more talented team, and that will show on the court tonight.
Remember, this is a Notre Dame team that went 13-5 in Big East play last season to finish 3rd in the conference. Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) is one of the Big East's premier bigs, coming off an uber-efficient campaign in which he made 62.5% of his field goals and swatted 1.6 shots per game.
But the backcourt figures to be just as dangerous led by Jerian Grant (12.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Eric Atkins (12.1 PPG, 4.1 APG). Both are strong passers and shooters, who should have no problem making this offense flow alongside 6-foot-8 swingman Scott Martin (9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG). He is a matchup nightmare with a guard's skillset and a forward's body.
The Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame Friday.
|11-16-12||Florida International v. Florida Atlantic -1.5||Top||34-24||Loss||-110||47 h 55 m||Show|
20* FIU/FAU Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -1.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls have gone under the radar all season. They have been an absolute money-making machine at the pay window because of it, covering eight straight against the spread. As only a 1-point home favorite here, they could easily earn their ninth straight cover.
|11-16-12||Wake Forest +10.5 v. Connecticut||71-77||Win||100||16 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10.5
Connecticut is way overvalued heading into this neutral court contest with Wake Forest tonight due to its 2-0 start that includes wins over Michigan State and Vermont. Now is a great time to fade this team considering they are getting some hype.
The Huskies are not going to be as strong this season as they have been in year's past, plain and simple. Former head coach Jim Calhoun retired, and he did not leave new head coach Kevin Ollie with much talent. The Huskies return just one starter, lose Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond to the NBA, and Alex Oriakhi has transferred.
Wake Forest went just 4-12 in ACC play last year, and it heads into the 2012-13 campaign undervalued because of it. The Demon Deacons should be much improved because they return their top two scorers from last season in C.J. Harris (16.7 PPG) and Travis McKie (16.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG). Six different players scored in double figures in a 79-67 win over Radford in their opener, so this team has some nice balance to go along with studs Harris and McKie.
UConn is 25-47 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. It is only winning in this spot by an average of 3.1 points/game. Look for this one to go right down to the wire with a possible upset by the Demon Deacons. Bet Wake Forest Friday.
|11-15-12||Miami Heat v. Denver Nuggets -3||98-93||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
15* Heat/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -3
The Denver Nuggets should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Miami Heat. This is an extremely tough spot for Miami and a great one for Denver, and that's the reason the Nuggets bring home the cash in this one.
Miami will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. This is one of the hardest situations for any team in the league, and they only come across it a couple times a year. The Heat showed signs of wearing down last night in a 100-107 loss at Los Angeles.
Denver is one of the most up-tempo teams in the league, which will make life even harder on the Heat in this one. The Nuggets push the ball up the floor faster than any other team in the NBA. Miami is going to wear down in the second half as I expect the Nuggets to pull away in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Nuggets come in on two days' rest, and this is just their 2nd game in 5 days.
The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. Denver is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.
|11-15-12||Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 46||Top||14-19||Win||100||24 h 35 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Bills AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 46
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this Thursday night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. These are two desperate teams in need of a victory to get back in the playoff hunt in the AFC, and I look for it to be a defensive battle partly because of it.
Another reason I believe this will be a low-scoring affair is that fact that these are two of the worst offenses in the league. Miami is scoring just 19.2 points/game while ranking 25th in total offense (323.9 yards/game).
Buffalo's offensive numbers are a bit inflated because of two games against the Patriots, who it always seems to play in high-scoring games with. It scored 28 points and gained 438 total yards in the 1st meeting, and it scored 31 points while gaining 481 total yards in the second. The Bills still rank just 14th in total offense (359.1 yards/game) despite those two explosions against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
These teams have combined for 45 or less points in four of the last five meetings, which would make for an 80% system pertaining to tonight's total set of 46. Dating back further, nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 45 or fewer points.
Miami is 7-0 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins are 6-0 to the UNDER in November games over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-15-12||North Carolina v. Virginia +3.5||37-13||Loss||-110||23 h 40 m||Show|
15* UNC/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +3.5
While the Cavaliers are just 4-6 on the season, there
|11-14-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Golden State Warriors -1||88-92||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1
The Golden State Warriors are hungry for a victory after dropping back-to-back games to the Lakers and Nuggets. I like their chances tonight with a step down in competition as the Atlanta Hawks visit Oracle Arena.
The Warriors have had some time to steam over those losses as they haven't played a game since Saturday, November 10th. They have had three full days to prepare for Atlanta, and they will be well-rested and ready to go coming in. Those are two huge advantages for Golden State tonight.
Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights as it continues its grueling 4-game road trip to the West Coast. The Hawks won't be able to give as much effort on the court tonight as the Warriors because of it.
The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following two or more consecutive losses. It simply wants this one more tonight folks. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Toledo +11 v. Northern Illinois||Top||24-31||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11
The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.
Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.
The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.
Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.
This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Ohio +7 v. Ball State||27-52||Loss||-115||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Ball State ESPNU Wednesday No-Brainer on Ohio +7
The Bobcats are still mathematically alive for the MAC East title considering they still get to play Kent State in the final game of the season. They would need some help for that game to even matter, but at this point they are still alive.
Despite two losses in their last three games, this is still an 8-win team that returned 14 starters from a team that won the MAC East title last year, including QB Tyler Tettleton. He may be the best signal caller in the MAC. Tettleton is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 198 yards and four scores.
Ohio is 3-1 on the road this season with its only loss coming at Miami (Ohio) by 3 points. I know the Bobcats lost to Bowling Green at home last week, but their defense played well enough to win that game, limiting the Falcons to just 288 total yards. Ball State hasn
|11-14-12||Detroit Pistons +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||94-76||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5
The Detroit Pistons (0-8) are going to fight, scratch and claw to try and get their first win of the season. There's no question they are undervalued due to this winless start, and I'll pull the trigger on them tonight as a big road underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Detroit has played six of its first eight games on the road, so it has faced a very difficult schedule. It proved it could play with one of the best teams in the league last time out. The Pistons lost 92-90 to Oklahoma City Monday after blowing a 13-point lead in the third quarter.
"The thing I liked is our guys, when you went in that locker room, very, very disappointed," coach Lawrence Frank told the team's official website. "Laid it all out there, felt like we could have won the game - should have won the game - and you hate where you kick a game. Just to see how much that loss hurt ... it should, and then we had a really good day of practice and you move forward."
The 76ers are just 1-2 at home this season. They are getting outscored 89.3 to 96.7 at home this year with losses to the Knicks and Bucks. Philadelphia will have a hard time getting motivated to play a winless team tonight, which will be the case for many of Detroit's opponents until they get that first "W".
This play falls into a system that is 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 8 or more consecutive losses. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Wisconsin v. Florida -6||56-74||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Florida ESPN 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Florida -6
The Florida Gators are one of the most talented teams in the country this season. They are ranked inside the Top 10 for good reason, and that will show on the floor tonight as they crush the Wisconsin Badgers at home.
The Gators return three starters from a team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. They are leading scorer Kenny Boynton (15.9 PPG, 3.0 3-pointers), Erik Murphy (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Patric Young (10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG).
Florida led 47-9 at halftime in its opener and cruised to an 84-35 victory over Alabama State. Boynton finished with 22 points, five assists and six rebounds. Murphy hit three 3's and scored 15 points, while Young added 12 points and 12 rebounds with two blocks.
Wisconsin has lost starting point guard Josh Gasser to a season-ending knee injury. That's huge because it already had to replace leading scorer Jordan Taylor (14.8 PPG) from last season. Teams that struggle at the point guard position don't usually fare well. Take Florida Wednesday.
|11-13-12||Kentucky v. Duke -3||68-75||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -3
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Duke returns four starters from a team that averaged 77.3 points/game last season. The key to this season's team will be senior forward Mason Plumlee, who chose not to enter the NBA Draft after a season in which he averaged nearly a double-double (11.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG). He is joined in the frontcourt by senior Ryan Kelly, who can stretch defenses as a long-range shooter (41% threes).
The backcourt is led by senior Seth Curry, but with Austin Rivers gone, he has returned to his more natural position off the ball, where he thrives with a better than 40% three-point stroke in his Duke career.
Kentucky barely squeaked by Maryland 72-69 in its opener, and it is an underdog for a good reason here. The Wildcats are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Kentucky is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. ACC foes. Take Duke Tuesday.
|11-13-12||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic +7||Top||99-89||Loss||-110||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +7
The Orlando Magic should not be catching 7 points at home Tuesday. This is a team that came into the season undervalued due to the Dwight Howard trade, and that hasn't changed through the first few weeks of the 2012-13 campaign.
The New York Knicks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-0 start. This will only be their second road game of the season, and they shouldn't be favored by 7 points away from home against almost any team in this league.
Orlando has gone a very profitable 4-2 ATS in its six games this year. Off four straight losses, the Magic will be the more motivated team heading into this one. Three of those four losses have come on the road, and there's no question that this skid has them undervalued right now.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
The Magic are 19-6 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. They are winning in this spot by an average of 4.7 points/game. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Magic Tuesday.
|11-12-12||West Virginia +11 v. Gonzaga||50-84||Loss||-107||12 h 15 m||Show|
15* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on West Virginia +11
The West Virginia Mountaineers are a much stronger team than they are getting credit for heading into the 2012-13 campaign, which will be their first season in the Big 12. They should not be a double-digit underdog tonight to the overrated Gonzaga Bulldogs.
The Mountaineers return three starters from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last season and made the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore Gary Browne (6.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.0 APG) should be prepared to take a big step up in the backcourt. PF Deniz Kilici (10.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is their best returning player.
After sitting out a year, Dayton transfer Juwan Staten will be a big factor at guard. Kilici will be joined in the frontcourt by La Salle transfer Aaric Murray, who at 6-foot-10 is a shot-blocking force (143 blocks over two college season) who can also step out and hit jumpers, averaging 13.7 PPG and making 36% of his threes at La Salle.
West Virginia wants payback from a 77-54 loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament. There's no question that the Mountaineers have been thinking about this game all offseason for a chance at revenge. They'll definitely want this one more tonight. Take West Virginia Monday.
|11-12-12||Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers||Top||13-16||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +13.5
If the Chiefs would just take care of the football, they would be a really good team. At some point, they will quit giving the ball away, thus giving games away. This is certainly better than a 1-7 team when you look at the numbers outside of turnovers.
Kansas City ranks 16th in the league in total offense at 358.0 yards per game, and 16th in total defense at 347.5 yards per game allowed. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that is 4-4 or better rather than one that is 1-7.
Pittsburgh has tended to play down to its competition at times this season. Remember, this is a team that has losses to the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, which is about as bad as it gets. The Steelers were a 10.5-point favorite last season against the Chiefs and only won by a final of 13-9.
The Steelers are expected to be without arguably their top playmakers offensively in wide receiver Antonio Brown (ankle). He is listed as doubtful, which will certainly take the Steelers
|11-12-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Detroit Pistons +6.5||92-90||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6.5
The Detroit Pistons are very motivated to get their first win of the season. Because this team has opened 0-7, there's no question they are undervalued right now. The betting public does not want to back them, and that's why they are showing such great value as a 6.5-point underdog here Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be disinterested heading into this one. They are going to have a hard time getting up to play a winless Pistons team. That's especially the case considering the Thunder just beat them at home 105-94 this past Friday.
The Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. So not only will they be disinterested, but they won't have the energy level it's going to take to win this game by 7-plus points, let alone win it at all.
A big reason why the Pistons have opened 0-7 is due to a brutal schedule that has featured six straight road games. This will be just their second home game of the season, and there's no question these players are looking forward to getting back in front of their home fans. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Pistons Monday.
|11-11-12||Houston Texans +1.5 v. Chicago Bears||Top||13-6||Win||100||67 h 26 m||Show|
20* Texans/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5
The Houston Texans are the superior team in this game against Chicago and it will show on the field Sunday Night. The Texans were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and they have not disappointed. I did expect the Bears to make the playoffs, but not to be off to this good of a start.
Chicago's 7-1 start is a bit fluky given all of the defensive touchdowns they have come up with. They can't possibly keep this pace up on defense, and they have been forcing turnovers against a pretty soft schedule in the first half. Six of the eight teams the Bears have faced are .500 or worse on the season, and five of those teams have losing records.
Houston won't be giving the Bears any gifts like these other teams have. It has only turned the ball over six times all season. This is the most complete team in the league as it ranks in the Top 10 of turnover differential, yards per play differential, and sack percentage. There are just no weaknesses on their entire team.
Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that isn't nearly explosive as it was supposed to be coming into the season. It ranks just 25th in total offense (324.4 yards/game), including 27th in passing offense (196.8 yards/game). Houston ranks 12th in total offense (371.7 yards/game) and 3rd in total defense (286.1 yards/game).
The Texans are a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 15.4 points/game in this spot. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 12.2 points/game in this situation.
Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 November games. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Texans. Bet Houston Sunday.
|11-11-12||Miami Heat -2 v. Memphis Grizzlies||86-104||Loss||-105||8 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite at Memphis. The Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 4-1 start against one of the easiest schedules you will ever see. They meet their match tonight in the defending NBA champs.
Lebron James and Dwayne Wade both are banged up a bit coming into this one, which is probably the biggest reason why the Heat are a small favorite here. But the oddsmakers are putting too much stock into it. "It's a little sore right now," James said after his last game. "I knew I would get through it. It would take a lot for me not to go back out there with my teammates."
The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Take the Heat Sunday.
|11-11-12||NY Jets +6.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||7-28||Loss||-110||63 h 0 m||Show|
15* Jets/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5
The Jets are coming off their bye week and it could not have come at a better them. Their bye will give them a chance to recover and refocus from two straight AFC East losses to the Patriots and Dolphins. This extra week of rest will make the flight from the East coast to the West a lot easier, and is shouldn
|11-11-12||Detroit Lions -1 v. Minnesota Vikings||24-34||Loss||-120||60 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Lions -1
The Detroit Lions are rolling right now, playing their best football of the season coming into this one. They have won back-to-back games over the Seahawks and Jaguars while scoring a combined 59 points in the process. Now, Detroit wants revenge from a 13-20 loss to Minnesota earlier this season.
That loss was a complete fluke as the Lions dominated the game, but the special teams lost it for them. They outgained the Vikings 341-227 for the game, but gave up two special teams touchdowns. One came on a 100-yard kickoff return by Percy Harvin, who is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. He is the Vikings best weapon and will certainly be missed.
I've been saying all year that Detroit is a better team than its record indicates, and it's certainly starting to show. The Lions rank 2nd in the league in total offense (410.9 yards/game) and 7th in total defense (320.6 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 90.3 yards/game this season. Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season despite its 5-4 record.
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Detroit is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a ATS win. The Lions are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. I'll back the better team playing the better football right now against a Minnesota team likely playing without arguably its best player. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-11-12||San Diego Chargers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||24-34||Loss||-100||60 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Chargers +3
The San Diego Chargers should not be catching points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday. Tampa Bay is getting way too much credit for its back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Raiders. That win over Minnesota was its only win against a team with a winning record this season, and I would be willing to lay a large bet that the Vikings don't finish with a winning record.
San Diego comes in on three extra days' rest after playing last Thursday in a 31-13 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego is a better team than its 4-4 record would indicate, and its defense will be the reason it goes into Tampa Bay and comes away with a victory Sunday.
The Chargers rank 9th in the league in total defense (322.4 yards/game), including 4th against the run (84.0 yards/game). Its ability to stop the run is huge considering the Bucs rely on Doug Martin and their rushing attack so much.
Tampa Bay's defense is the reason it will lose this game. The Bucs rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense (398.4 yards/game), including dead last against the pass (321.1 yards/game). Philip Rivers is going to have a huge day against this soft Bucs' secondary.
The Buccaneers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. San Diego is 15-5 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|11-11-12||Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +3||27-31||Win||100||60 h 55 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on New Orleans +3
While the Saints are just 3-5 this season, there
|11-10-12||Utah v. Washington Huskies +1.5||15-34||Win||100||74 h 59 m||Show|
15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +1.5
The Utah Utes have no business being a road favorite at Washington Saturday. Oddsmakers have really missed their mark on this one folks, and we'll take advantage. I fully expect the Huskies to become bowl eligible with a victory on Senior Night as this will be their final home game.
Utah is getting way too much respect for its last two wins over Washington State and California. Both of those victories came at home against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12. You can't forget that the Utes had lost four straight before those two wins over cupcake opponents.
Utah is 0-4 on the road this season, scoring just 12.0 points/game and allowing 26.5 points/game, getting outscored by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Once again, the Utes have no business being favored given how poorly they've played away from home.
What's even more mind-boggling is the fact that Washington is 4-1 at home this season, yet it's a dog here. The Huskies have impressive home wins over then-No. 8 Stanford and then-No. 7 Oregon State this year, so it's not like they're beating up on cupcakes. Their lone home loss came against then-No. 11 USC.
The Huskies won at Utah 31-14 last year as a 10-point underdog. They dominated this game, outgaining the Utes 411-322 while forcing five turnovers. Keith Price completed 22 of 30 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Get ready for another big game from Price this weekend.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring teams by 13.2 points/game in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Washington Saturday.
|11-10-12||Boston Celtics +1 v. Milwaukee Bucks||96-92||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Boston Celtics +1
The Boston Celtics are coming off a loss last night, while the Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a win. There's no question the Celtics are going to be the more motivated team heading into this contest Saturday.
Boston is 2-3 while the Bucks are 3-1, so the Celtics need this one more. They also want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to the Bucks in their second game of the season. There's a reason why the Bucks are only a 1-point favorite in this one, and that's because the oddsmakers realize the Celtics will want this game more.
Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 1-9 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|11-10-12||Mississippi State +14.5 v. LSU||Top||17-37||Loss||-105||71 h 32 m||Show|
25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +14.5
This is easily the best team that Dan Mullen has fielded since coming to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs did lose badly to Alabama and Texas A&M in their last two games, but that has them battle-tested heading into this showdown against a team similarly talented.
LSU is in a huge letdown spot after losing to No. 1 Alabama in the final seconds last Saturday. It will have a very hard time getting up to play Mississippi State after such a crushing defeat. That loss means that the Tigers aren
|11-10-12||Georgia -15.5 v. Auburn||38-0||Win||100||71 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Auburn ESPN 2 Line Mistake on Georgia -15.5
A win guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC title game for a second straight season. That would also mean that its national title hopes are still alive considering the winner of the SEC Championship game has made it to the BCS Championship in six straight seasons. They certainly won
|11-10-12||Penn State +7.5 v. Nebraska||23-32||Loss||-113||67 h 2 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Nebraska ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Penn State +7.5
The postseason ban hasn
|11-10-12||Navy v. Troy||31-41||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy PK
Navy is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It has won five straight games coming in with road victories over Air Force, Central Michigan and East Carolina, along with home wins over Indiana and Navy.
Its recent success is directly related to a change at the quarterback position. Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game and led the Midshipmen to a comeback victory in the second half. He hasn't missed a beat since.
Reynolds has rushed for 405 yards and six touchdowns. However, it's his throwing ability that has made this offense so much more explosive. Reynolds is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 560 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He forces opposing defenses to respect the pass, which makes this triple-option attack so much scarier.
Troy had a chance to pull off a huge upset at Tennessee last week. It blew the game down the stretch, allowing the Vols to score two touchdowns over the final three minutes to escape with a 55-48 victory. After such a crushing defeat, it will be hard for the Trojans to bounce back mentally and get ready for this powerful triple-option attack that's coming their way.
Navy crushed Try 42-14 at home in last season's meeting. It rushed for 390 yards while compiling 517 total yards in the win. It also held the Trojans to just 330 total yards while forcing two turnovers defensively. I expect a similar blowout this Saturday as the Midshipmen run wild on the Trojans once again.
The Midshipmen are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Navy is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games overall. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-10-12||Arizona State +9.5 v. USC||17-38||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona State +9.5
The USC Trojans are in a huge letdown spot here. They'd have their hands full with Arizona State regardless, but given the situation I can see them losing this one outright. The Sun Devils are better than they get credit for and will give the Trojans a run for their money here.
USC's biggest game of the year took place last Saturday in a 51-62 home loss to the Oregon Ducks. It had a chance to salvage its season with a win in that game, but that hope is long gone now. USC came into the season with national title hopes, and now it has little to play for the rest of the way having already suffered three losses.
Arizona State is highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses to three really good teams in Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. Its last two losses have come in heartbreaking fashion by a combined 12 points to the Bruins and Beavers. This team will respond better than USC will this week given the situation.
The Sun Devils have played some of their best football on the road this season. They are 2-1 away from home with road wins over California and Colorado by a combined 44 points. Their lone loss on the road came at Missouri by a final of 20-24.
Arizona State didn't have all that great of a team last season, yet it beat USC 43-22 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. It also took the Trojans down to the wire on the road in 2010, losing by a final of 33-34 as a 6-point underdog.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Sun Devils are a very good team. They rank 31st in the country in total offense (457.8 yards/game) and 24th in total defense (333.3 yards/game). As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 124.5 yards/game.
USC is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Arizona State Saturday.
|11-10-12||Evansville v. Notre Dame -14||49-58||Loss||-110||3 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -14
Mike Brey is counting on Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to lead a squad that returns all five starters and added 6-10 Michigan State transfer Garrick Sherman and freshmen forwards Cameron Biedscheid and Zach Auguste. The other returning starters are guards Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, who both averaged more than 12 points a game last season, sixth-year player Scott Martin and Pat Connaughton.
This is a team that should have no problem rolling by 15-plus against the overmatched Evansville Purple Aces. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|11-10-12||Wisconsin v. Indiana +7||Top||62-14||Loss||-105||64 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +7
The Indiana Hoosiers have been under the radar all season. What's amazing is that this basketball school is actually starting to become a legitimate football program, but public bettors fail to realize it yet. As a result, they are showing great value as a touchdown underdog at home to Wisconsin once again Saturday.
Indiana is just 4-5 this season, but it could easily be 8-1. It has four losses by 4 points or less. They are 39-41 to Ball State, 27-32 to Michigan State, 49-52 to Ohio State and 30-31 to Navy.
This team has bounced back nicely from five straight losses with two solid wins over Illinois and Iowa. Now, Indiana controls its destiny in representing the Leaders division in the Big Ten title game. Both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible, so the Hoosiers are just one game behind Wisconsin. A win Saturday would move them into first place due to the tiebreaker.
Wisconsin is certainly down this season, yet it isn't getting treated like it. It has fortunate close wins over North Iowa, Utah State and UTEP. Its only Big Ten wins have come against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota, three teams with a combined 1-14 record in Big Ten play. The Badgers are overrated and will meet their match this weekend.
The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|11-09-12||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -4.5||84-104||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4.5
The Denver Nuggets are under the radar in the early going due to their 0-3 start against a brutal schedule. I believe they should be a heavier favorite tonight against the Utah Jazz at home. This Nuggets team is one of the best in the league in my opinion and as the season progresses, you will see that.
Denver opened with three straight tough road games at the 76ers, Magic and Heat for their 0-3 start. They picked up their first win of the year with a 109-97 home victory over Detroit, then went on the road to beat Houston 93-87. You would be hard-pressed to find another team with a tougher schedule thus far.
Utah is in a big letdown spot following its 95-86 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers. This has been a great home team throughout the years, and they have opened 2-0 at home this season. However, the Jazz are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this year, falling to the Hornets, Spurs and Grizzlies.
The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Utah is 19-39 ATS in its last 58 games following a ATS win. The favorite is 31-15-3 ATS in the last 49 meetings. The Jazz are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|11-09-12||Maryland Terrapins +11.5 v. Kentucky||69-72||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Kentucky CBB Season Opener on Maryland +11.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Several key players return for Maryland. They are 7-foot-1 sophomore center Alex Len, 6-8 senior forward James Padgett and guards Pe'Shon Howard and Nick Faust. With Len, Padgett, and highly touted freshmen Shaquille Cleare (6-9, 262 pounds) and Charles Mitchell (6-8, 260) rotating in the frontcourt, the Terrapins expect to control the boards against most teams. Both Cleare and Mitchell were Top 100 recruits.
I just like the veteran experience on this team up against the inexperienced, over-hyped Wildcats in the first game of the season. This one should go right down to the wire as the Terrapins easily stay within double-digits. Roll with Maryland Friday.
|11-09-12||Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Pitt/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Connecticut +3.5
The Panthers could be in a huge letdown spot here. They have to be deflated after their triple overtime loss to the Fighting Irish last Saturday, which was their chance to salvage a poor season. I foresee them showing up mentally to play this game Friday after such a tough defeat.
Connecticut has been better than its 3-6 record would indicate. It is actually outgaining opponents by 28 yards per game this season, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 on the year. It remains competitive thanks to a stop unit gives up just 18.6 points per game, and one that ranks 9th in the country in total defense at 290.2 yards per game allowed.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 331 total yards per game. It will have a hard time moving the football on this stingy Huskies
|11-08-12||Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5||27-10||Loss||-100||25 h 27 m||Show|
15* Colts/Jaguars NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3.5
The betting public is all over the Colts this week. Not too many public bettors are going to want to put their money down on Jacksonville with how poorly they
|11-08-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls||97-91||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder want to make up for their meltdown last Thursday on TNT. They were leading the Spurs by 3 points in the final minute, but managed to squander that lead and eventually lost 84-86 on the road.
The Thunder will be looking to make a statement a week later against a much weaker Chicago team tonight on TNT. The Bulls may be 3-1, but they've played about as easy of a schedule as you will find with wins against the Kings, Cavs and Magic. They lost to the Hornets at home, too.
Oklahoma City is coming off its best game of the season in a 108-88 home victory over the Toronto Raptors. This team is off to just a 2-2 start this season, so I look for it to build off of that win and to stay highly motivated tonight to get back above .500 on the season.
The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. OKC is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 Thursday games. The Thunder are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents. OKC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Chicago. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|11-08-12||Florida State v. Virginia Tech +14.5||Top||28-22||Win||100||45 h 2 m||Show|
25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +14.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are way undervalued heading into this contest with the Florida State Seminoles. Lane Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play in the country, and FSU isn't just going to walk into it and dominate the Hokies in this one.
This is Virginia Tech's national championship after a 4-5 start to the season. This team has had several bad breaks throughout the year, and I have no doubt that it is a much better squad than its record would indicate. Now is their chance to prove it on National TV against a Top 10 opponent.
Virginia Tech is a perfect 4-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 35.0 to 11.0, or by an average of 24.0 points per game. Florida State is just 2-1 on the road, outscoring opponents 26.3 to 18.0, or by an average of 8.3 points per game. Both of its road wins came by 13 points to South Florida and Miami, and it lost to NC State. I believe Virginia Tech is a stronger team than all three of those squads.
The home team has dominated this series through the years. The host has won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings between the Seminoles and Hokies. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
The Hokies are 15-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. The Seminoles are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. FSU is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
The Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in November. Virginia Tech is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Hokies are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.
|11-08-12||Louisiana Monroe +7 v. Arkansas State||23-45||Loss||-115||74 h 58 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +7
The Warhawks had won five straight before falling at home to Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday. That loss is just an aberration, and they are undervalued coming in because of it. They are still tied atop the Sun Belt standings and there
|11-07-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 196.5||86-95||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 196.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. Both teams featured great post play as the Lakers feature Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, while the Jazz feature Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. Look for both teams to slow down the pace tonight and run their offense through their big men.
The Lakers have clearly been out of sync offensively in the early going due to the moves they made this offseason. Now, without Steve Nash running the show due to injury, they are going to be even worse off offensively, but better defensively. They allowed just 79 points to the Pistons last time out.
This has been a low-scoring series between the Lakers and Jazz. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings as they have combined to score 183 or fewer points in five of those six contests. There's no question the oddsmakers have missed their mark given these recent head-to-head results.
The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Lakers last 61 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 18-7 in Jazz last 25 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Utah. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-07-12||Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. Houston Rockets||93-87||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +2.5
The Denver Nuggets are undervalued due to their 1-3 start. This is still one of the best teams in the league in my opinion, and they should not be an underdog to the overvalued Houston Rockets in this one.
Houston is getting too much respect for its 2-1 start that featured two wins against Detroit and Atlanta. It came back down to reality with an 85-95 home loss to Portland last time out. It has certainly played the easier schedule to this point.
Denver lost three road games against the 76ers, Magic and Heat to open the season before a 109-97 home victory over the Pistons last night. This team is going to be playing with a sense of urgency for a few weeks after their 0-3 start, which should make them a moneymaker in the short-term.
The Nuggets are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 road games. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Denver three of four against Houston last season, including both meetings in Houston. Take the Nuggets Wednesday.
|11-07-12||Bowling Green v. Ohio -2.5||Top||26-14||Loss||-110||22 h 33 m||Show|
20* Bowling Green/Ohio MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -2.5
If Ohio wants a shot to redeem itself from last year's loss in the MAC title game, this is a must-win for the Bobcats. They are tied with Bowling Green for second place in the East Division at 4-1 and will eventually get a shot against Kent State (5-0) in the season finale.
I still believe the Bobcats are the best team in this division. They were the favorite to win the MAC coming into 2012, and one 3-point loss at Miami (Ohio) does not change my opinion on them. This is still an 8-1 team that is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points/game.
Ohio is 5-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 42.4 to 21.4 on the year. It has the better offense in this one which will be the difference in the game. Ohio ranks 28th in the country in total offense (462.2 yards/game), while Bowling Green ranks just 77th in total offense (383.4 yards/game).
Sure, the Falcons have a solid defense this season, but the Bobcats' stop unit isn't too shabby either. Bowling Green is just 2-3 on the road this season as all three of its losses have come away from home. It is scoring a mere 15.4 points/game on the road this year.
Bowling Green is getting way too much respect right now for its five-game winning streak coming in. That winning streak is an absolute joke as they five teams the Falcons have played were Rhode Island, Akron, Miami (Ohio), UMass and Eastern Michigan.
Ohio is 10-1 ATS in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Ohio Wednesday.
|11-06-12||Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets -10.5||97-109||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Denver Nuggets -10.5
The Denver Nuggets are off to an 0-3 start this season thanks to a brutal schedule with three straight road games. They did not play well in their first two contests in losses at Philly and Orlando, but they did give the defending champion Miami Heat a run for their money in a 116-119 road loss.
I believe the Nuggets are still one of the best teams in the league despite their 0-3 start. In their home opener Tuesday, this team is going to be highly motivated to pick up its first win of the season against the Detroit Pistons. This has the makings of one of the biggest blowouts of the season.
The Detroit Pistons are clearly one of the worst teams in the league. They have hardly been competitive this season in losses to the Rockets, Suns and Lakers. Los Angeles was able to get its first win against the Pistons with a 108-79 home victory on Sunday, and I look for a similar blowout here tonight.
The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central opponents. Denver is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|11-06-12||Ball State +7 v. Toledo||Top||34-27||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ball State/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ball State +7
The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule than the Toledo Rockets and they
|11-05-12||Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2||92-94||Push||0||10 h 15 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2
The Sacramento Kings are very hungry for their first win of the season. They have been dealt a brutal schedule in the early going with three road games at Chicago, Minnesota and Indiana. They lost in double overtime to the Pacers Saturday to fall to 0-3 on the season.
Golden State is getting too much respect for its 2-1 start. It beat Phoenix 87-85 on the road, and the Suns are clearly in rebuilding mode. It also beat the Clippers on the road 114-110, but it caught them in a huge letdown spot after beating the Lakers the previous night.
Sacramento is simply going to want this game more tonight as it plays in front of its home fans for the first time this season. The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Monday games. Roll with the Kings Monday.
|11-05-12||Philadelphia Eagles v. New Orleans Saints OVER 52||Top||13-28||Loss||-110||127 h 51 m||Show|
25* Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Saints OVER 52
This game has shootout written all over it. We have two of the most explosive offenses in the league going at it inside at dome down in New Orleans. I expect a lot of touchdowns and few defensive stops in this one.
New Orleans is scoring 27.1 points/game overall and 29.0 points/game at home. It ranks 5th in the league in total offense (388.6 yards/game), including 1st in passing offense (316.0 yards/game). Brees will be able to pick apart a Philly defense that underwent a coordinator change last week, and it didn't help. The Eagles allowed 30 points to the Falcons in a 30-17 home loss.
Philly ranks as solid 13th in the league in total offense (363.6 yards/game). It is in line for its best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up 30.9 points/game this season while ranking 32nd in total defense (475.4 yards/game).
Each of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 51 or more combined points. They combined for 70 points in a 48-22 Saints' victory in their most recent meeting in 2009. They always tend to play in high-scoring games when they get together, and they should easily eclipse this 52-point total early into the 4th quarter.
The OVER is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 10-1 in Saints last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 27-1 (96%) system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-05-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Brooklyn Nets -7.5||107-96||Loss||-105||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -7.5
The Brooklyn Nets are amped up to ball. They are the only NBA team that has been able to play just one game thus far this season due to the New York game getting postponed. These players have a ton of energy they're just waiting to let out on the floor tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I was impressed with Brooklyn in its lone contest, a 107-100 home victory over Toronto. Five different players scored in double figures, led by Brook Lopez and his 27 points. This is a very deep team and it will be one of the top squads in the Eastern Conference come season's send.
Minnesota has not impressed me in the early going one bit. Its lone win came at home against the Kings, and it was demolished at Toronto 86-105 Sunday. It turned the ball over 24 times against the Raptors, and this team simply isn't very talented this season. The Wolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so they won't be able to match the energy level the Nets bring to the court.
The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Without Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the league in the early going talent-wise. Take the Nets Monday.
|11-04-12||Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||13-19||Loss||-115||99 h 41 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +4.5
Dallas is a much better team than its 3-4 record would indicate. One look at the numbers and you can tell that, but the fact of the matter is that this team keeps beating itself. If the Cowboys ever quit beating themselves, they are going to be a very scary team in the second half. They committed six turnovers against the Giants last week and still had a chance to win at the end.
The Cowboys rank 7th in the league in total offense at 383.3 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 292.4 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by roughly 91 yards per game on the season, which is a number more indicative of a team that is 5-2 or better rather than one that is 3-4.
To compare, the Falcons are only outgaining opponents by a mere 12.4 yards per game this season. That number is more indicative of a team that is 4-3 rather than one that is 7-0. You could certainly make the argument that the Cowboys are the better team with those numbers, and there
|11-04-12||Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. NY Giants||Top||24-20||Win||100||95 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
While the Steelers do have three losses on the season, they really gave those games away. They held fourth quarter leads against the Broncos, Titans and Raiders and managed to let them slip away. Pittsburgh is really looking for a statement win, and it will be highly motivated when it goes into New York Sunday against the defending champs.
Pittsburgh may be a bit banged up, but it is playing its best football of the season right now. After a 24-17 road win at Cincinnati in Week 7, the Steelers came back with a 27-12 home victory over the Washington Redskins in arguably their most complete game of the season last Sunday. They limited Robert Griffin III and Washington
|11-04-12||Minnesota Vikings +5 v. Seattle Seahawks||20-30||Loss||-106||90 h 39 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +5
The Vikings are getting some extra rest coming into this one, and they certainly need it to regroup and refocus after a 17-36 home loss to the Bucs last Thursday. They will be on three extra days of rest, which will make their trip out West a lot less of a distraction than it normally would be. It has given Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Antoine Winfield and Mistral Raymond more time to recover from minor injuries.
Peterson has amazingly returned from a knee injury to lead the league in rushing this season with 775 yards and four touchdowns. Harvin is one of the most electrifying players in the league with what he does on offense and special teams. He ranks 5th in the league in receiving with 60 grabs for 667 yards and three touchdowns. With these two playmakers on Minnesota
|11-04-12||Arizona Cardinals +11 v. Green Bay Packers||17-31||Loss||-107||87 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +11
The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league. Their stop unit has given up 24 or less points in 17 straight games dating back to last season. They are giving up just 17.7 points per game this season. They rank 6th in the league in total defense, allowing a mere 312.9 yards per game. This stop unit is capable of keeping them in every ball game.
|11-04-12||Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans -10||9-21||Win||100||87 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -10
Houston has arguably been the best team in the league this season. The Texans own the second-best record in the NFL and have been absolutely rolling teams along the way. They already have four wins by 20 points or more, including a 43-13 home victory over Baltimore last time out in Week 8. They are outscoring opponents 30.9 to 18.3, or by an average of 12.6 points per game.
The Texans are dominant on both sides of the ball as they have little to no weaknesses. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (371.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 140.9 yards on the ground and 230.6 through the air. They are 3rd in the league in total defense at 283.0 yards per game allowed, proving that their No. 2 finish last season was no fluke.
|11-03-12||Alabama v. LSU +10||21-17||Win||100||69 h 28 m||Show|
15* Alabama/LSU SEC Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU +10
It's time to fade the No. 1 team in the country as the Alabama Crimson Tide are simply overvalued heading into this showdown with No. 5 LSU. The Tigers want payback from a loss in the national title game, and they're not about to let the Crimson Tide come into their building and embarrass them.
"There are a lot of scars from that national championship game," LSU defensive tackle Bennie Logan said. "You will see it on the field. The loss in the national championship game had a big impact on us. Going into last season, we had set goals like winning the national championship. Bama took that from us. They took that national championship ring. We want to show the world that we have bounced back from that loss."
LSU has won a school-record 22 straight home games, yet it is a big home underdog Saturday. Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and it will be a rowdy atmosphere for this one, you can bank on that.
The Tigers come in with an extra week of rest after having last week off, so the schedule could not have set up any better for them. That extra week of rest and preparation is huge when trying to get ready for a team like Alabama. LSU will be the more ready team this Saturday.
These are two evenly-matched teams for the most part. Both have dominant defense and great running games. Sure, Alabama may have an edge at quarterback, but I think that's negated with LSU's home-field advantage. This one will likely come right down to the final possession folks, just as it did in last year's 9-6 LSU road victory in overtime in the regular season.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. LSU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|11-03-12||Denver Nuggets +8 v. Miami Heat||116-119||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8
Denver has clearly underachieved with an 0-2 start to the season. It will be highly motivated for a victory when it travels to Miami tonight. Both teams are on a second of a back-to-back, but the Nuggets are built better for it.
The Nuggets go 10 deep and they are one of the most talented teams in the league. I have no doubt this will be one of the top teams in the West by season's end, so they are certainly undervalued right now after an 0-2 start. I'm not reading into it too much, and you shouldn't either.
The Nuggets are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games. Denver is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|11-03-12||Sacramento Kings +8 v. Indiana Pacers||98-106||Push||0||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +8
The Sacramento Kings have won their last two meetings with the Pacers outright as 5.5 and 6.5 points underdogs. Indiana is still without Danny Granger, and it will not play up to its potential until he returns.
The Pacers needed to come from behind against the Raptors to win 90-88 in their opener, and then they lost to the Bobcats 89-90 last night. Clearly, losing to Charlotte shows that this team is in a world of hurt.
Sacramento will be extra motivated to pick up its first win of the season after losses at Chicago and at Minnesota in its first two contests. This is a deep team that has stockpiled talent over the last few years, and it will handle this second of a back-to-back much better than the short-handed Pacers.
The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Kings Saturday.
|11-03-12||Clemson -12.5 v. Duke||56-20||Win||100||68 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -12.5
This is an absolute mismatch in ACC play Saturday and the final score will show that. Clemson has way too much talent and athleticism across the board for Duke to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
At 7-1 this season, the Tigers still have a lot to play for, and they're still very much alive in the ACC title race in their bid for back-to-back conference championships. This team has learned a lot from its meltdown at the end of last season as it is a year older and a lot more mature.
"I just think the experience they've had is going to pay off for them," head coach Dabo Swinney said. "That's usually the case." Quarterback Tajh Boyd said he's a much more mature player this season and doesn't spend much time thinking about what went wrong for him last fall.
"It's a growth in the leadership role and having these guys look up to me in any situation whether we're down or up," he said. "So my job is to stay calm, stay poised and let the game come to me." Boyd leads the league with more than 326 yards of total offense per game. He's also tops in the ACC with 20 TD passes against six interceptions.
Boyd threw for a school-record 428 yards in last Thursday's 42-13 win at Wake Forest. Clemson has now had a couple extra days of rest heading into this one. Its only loss came on the road 37-49 at Florida State, otherwise the Tigers have been rolling teams. Six of their seven wins have come by double-digits.
Duke has already become bowl eligible with its 6th win. This team had a very easy schedule in the early going, and it took advantage by opening 6-2. As a result, the Blue Devils are overvalued now heading into tough stretch run, which started with last week's 7-48 loss at Florida State.
Duke couldn't hang with the Seminoles, which is a team very similar to Clemson in terms of talent and athleticism. The Blue Devils could be without starting QB Sean Renfree, who suffered a head injury against FSU. I still love the Tigers if he plays, but if he doesn't it's just an added bonus.
The Tigers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with Duke. These games haven't even been close as Clemson has won by a combined score of 127-37. They have won all three games by 24 or more points.
Clemson is 9-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Clemson is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 conference games. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. Roll with Clemson Saturday.
|11-03-12||Pittsburgh +17 v. Notre Dame||26-29||Win||100||65 h 60 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +17
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season. They beat Oklahoma on the road last Saturday as ESPN's College Game Day made the trip to see it live. Off such an emotional win with so much national exposure, it's only human nature for the Fighting Irish to have a letdown this week against Pittsburgh.
There's no way the Irish will be able to match the intensity they played with against Oklahoma off such a huge win. Sure, they may win this game against the Panthers, but it won't be my more than 17 points. Pitt has the talent to hang around and make this a game.
While the Panthers are just 4-4 this season, I have no doubt that they are better than their record. They rank 43rd in the country in total offense (431.9 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (339.9 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 92 yards/game. That's the sign of a very good football team, and one that is better than .500.
Notre Dame has not been blowing teams out at home. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 at home, but they have won those four games by a combined 20 points, or by an average of 5.0 points/game. They don't have one home win by more than 7 points all season, and both Purdue and BYU were able to stay within a field goal.
Pitt comes in with a lot of confidence as it is playing its best football of the season. It has beaten Buffalo and Temple the past two weeks by a combined score of 67-23. The Panthers will certainly be laying it all on the line to try and pick up a signature win by pulling off the upset Saturday.
This has been a very tight series in recent years as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. In fact, seven of the last eight meetings were decided by 8 points or fewer. I look for this one to come right down to the wire as well. The underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-03-12||Ole Miss +14.5 v. Georgia||10-37||Loss||-110||65 h 59 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi +14.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are in a huge letdown spot here against underrated Ole Miss. Georgia is coming off its biggest win of the season with a 17-9 victory over SEC East rival Florida. It forced six turnovers in the win.
While the Bulldogs are now in control of their own destiny in the SEC East, there's no way they'll be able to match the intensity they played with in a statement win over the Gators. That makes them ripe for the picking against an Ole Miss team that doesn't get the respect it deserves.
The Rebels have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have beaten both Auburn and Arkansas, while losing by just 3 points to Texas A&M and by 19 at Alabama. That 19-point road loss to the Crimson Tide was the closest any team has come to beating the No. 1 team in the country.
Hugh Freeze is the real deal as a head coach after guiding Arkansas State to a perfect 8-0 record in conference play and a Sun Belt championship. He has already guided the Rebels to a 5-3 start and one win away from bowl contention after Houston Nutt left the program in a mess.
Freeze has a stud quarterback in Bo Wallace who is simply carrying this team on his shoulders. Wallace is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,649 yards with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also rushing for 263 yards and five scores. Jeff Scott is a beast at tailback, rushing for 612 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.4/carry.
The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Bulldogs are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-03-12||Washington State +12 v. Utah||6-49||Loss||-110||64 h 28 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +12
The Utah Utes are way overvalued heading into this showdown Saturday. They are getting way too much respect for their 49-27 home win over Cal last week that was gift-wrapped by the Golden Bears. Cal gave up two 100-yard kickoff return touchdowns and a fumble return for a score, which is how it lost by 22 despite outgaining the Utes 441-344 for the game.
Washington State may be just 2-6, but this team is much better than its record would indicate. It just lost at Stanford 17-24 last Saturday as a 25-point underdog. It recently got back its secret weapon in starting quarterback Jeff Tuel from injury.
The Cougars actually outgained the Cardinal 385-256 last Saturday and really should have won the game. Stanford had a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that proved to be the difference. Tuel completed 43 of 60 passes for 401 yards and two touchdowns against a very good Stanford defense.
Tuel will be the key to the Cougars likely pulling off this upset Saturday. Utah has given up some big passing numbers this season. It gave up 372 against Arizona State, 303 against USC and 288 against California. Teams struggle to run the football on the Utes, but the Cougars don't run it one bit. They will have a lot of success through the air Saturday.
Washington State lost 27-30 at home to Utah last season. It simply gave that game away because despite throwing for 337 yards, the Cougars committed five turnovers and had a -3 turnover differential for the game, which proved to be the difference. The Cougars want revenge in this one and will take better care of the football.
The Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 0-4 ATS int is last 4 games following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Utes are officially on upset alert heading into this one folks. Take Washington State Saturday.
|11-03-12||Oklahoma -11 v. Iowa State||Top||35-20||Win||100||69 h 49 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -11
The Oklahoma Sooners should roll right over the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday. This line has been set too low due to Oklahoma's loss to Notre Dame last week. Well, both of the Sooners' losses this season have come against two unbeaten teams in Notre Dame and Kansas State that don't get the credit they deserve.
The Sooners have owned this series with the Cyclones, and that won't change Saturday. Oklahoma has won 13 straight meetings with Iowa State by an average score of 32-8. It has also won 20 straight road meetings with the Cyclones with its last loss in Ames coming in 1960.
Iowa State is going to be without its best defensive player in linebacker Jake Knott, who was a first-team All-Big 12 performer a year ago. The Cyclones are simply going to be overmatched talent-wise all over the field. They have averaged a mere 5 points/game in their last six meetings with Oklahoma.
The Sooners are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
|11-03-12||Miami (OH) v. Buffalo -3.5||24-27||Loss||-102||61 h 29 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -3.5
Buffalo is just 1-7 with its only win against an FCS opponent, yet it is still favored against Miami (Ohio) Saturday. Oddsmakers know what they're doing here folks, realizing that Buffalo is a better team than its record and one that should warrant a big wager as it crushes the Redhawks Saturday.
The Bulls have lost to seven FBS opponents this season with a combined record of 44-14 SU, including five one-loss teams. The only exceptions were Big East programs Pitt and UConn. Buffalo has been an underdog in all but one of those contests as it gave up 3 points to Kent State in Week 4, who beat Rutgers last week.
Buffalo has returned star running back Branden Oliver, who is arguably the most explosive player in the MAC. He rushed for 101 yards last week in a 25-20 loss to Toledo in his first game back from a knee injury suffered against the Golden Flashes back in September.
Miami (Ohio) is in a huge letdown spot here. It just beat instate rival Ohio 23-20 last Saturday, handing the Bobcats their first loss of the season. It will be very tough for the Redhawks to get up emotionally to play this Saturday and match their intensity from last week's home contest. It's just not going to happen.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Roll with Buffalo Saturday.
|11-02-12||Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||105-95||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are still trying to find their way. They are off to an 0-2 start this season, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering they have new players and a new system. Now, they'll be without PG Steve Nash for a few games due to injury. This team is simply a mess right now and it's going to take some time for them to jell.
After losing the race for the NBA Pacific division title by one game to the Lakers last season, the Clippers want to make a statement with a win here tonight in the first meeting between these teams. They are off to a solid start this season with a 101-92 home victory over Memphis on Wednesday. The bench scored 49 points in the win, led by newcomer Jamal Crawford's 29.
The Lakers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. Roll with the Clippers Friday.
|11-02-12||Washington +4.5 v. California||Top||21-13||Win||100||46 h 25 m||Show|
20* Washington/Cal ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +4.5
|11-02-12||Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +7||89-90||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +7
The Charlotte Bobcats finished with the worst winning percentage in NBA history last season. Clearly, this team is going to be undervalued heading into the 2012-13 season. That's certainly the case in their opener against Indiana tonight.
I really like some of the new pieces on this team that are going to make the Bobcats much more competitive this season. They have added Ramon Sessions, Brendan Haywood, Ben Gordon and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. These four newcomers join a trio of Gerald Henderson, Byron Mullens and Kemba Walker, who were the three best players on this team last year.
The Indiana Pacers were fortunate to come away with a 90-88 victory at Toronto in their opener. They won on a last-second jumper from George Hill after trailing for the majority of the game. Indiana was without Danny Granger, their top scorer, and it will be without him again tonight. There's no question the Pacers are a much worse team without Granger in the line-up. Take the Bobcats Friday.
|11-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||84-86||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. This is an aging team that will not handle these situations very well, especially without arguably their best player in Manu Ginobli. He is expected to miss a second straight game with a back injury.
San Antonio had to rally from a double-digit deficit in the first half to squeak out a 99-95 win at New Orleans last night. Its task gets a lot tougher tonight with the defending Western Conference champs coming to down Thursday.
Oklahoma City is still as strong of a team as it was a year ago even with the loss of James Harden. Kevin Martin averaged 17.1 points last season, and he had averaged more than 20 points in each of his previous five seasons. Martin will fill the scoring void left by the departed Harden.
The Thunder will be out to prove that they won't miss Harden with all of the talk that has been in the media since the trade. They will also be looking to win a 5th straight meeting with the Spurs after winning the final four games of a 4-2 series victory in the Western Conference Finals last season.
The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with San Antonio. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Oklahoma City. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.
|11-01-12||Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||13-31||Loss||-110||79 h 43 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City +8
The Kansas City Chiefs are arguably the best 1-6 team in the history of the NFL. As a result, they are undervalued heading into this rematch with the San Diego Chargers, who are clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
It's hard to go 1-6 when you rank 12th in the league in total offense (367.9 yards/game) and 18th in total defense (348.7 yards/game), so the Chiefs are actually outgaining their opponents by 19.2 yards/game. That's a number more indicative a team that's 4-3 instead of 1-6.
Sure, Kansas City has simply beaten itself with turnovers, committing 25 of them with a -18 turnover differential on the season. Sooner rather than later, this team is going to figure out how to take care of the football, and I'm banking on that being tonight.
San Diego beat Kansas City 37-20 in the first meeting, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Chiefs actually outgained the Chargers 349-293 for the game, but they committed six turnovers to give the game away. I look for them to learn from their mistakes and not gift wrap this one to the Chargers.
San Diego is reeling itself, losing three straight games to the Saints, Broncos and Browns. This team has a lot more pressure on it because public perception says that they continue to underachieve every year. However, Philip Rivers and the offense just simply isn't that good. San Diego ranks 25th in the league in total offense (321.0 yards/game). Rivers really misses former Charger greats LT, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a home loss against a division rival. Take the Chiefs Thursday.
|11-01-12||Virginia Tech v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 58||Top||12-30||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on VA Tech/Miami UNDER 58
Oddsmakers have inflated this total in Thursday's ACC rivalry between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Miami Hurricanes. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012 season in ACC play.
Virginia Tech was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the country this season. While it hasn't been up to par on this side of the ball, a closer look says that the Hokies have actually been pretty good on defense.
The Hokies are giving up 24.0 points and 370 total yards/game this season. Sure, that doesn't sound great, but when you consider that the eight opponents they've played average 30.3 points and 411 total yards/game, it's easy to see that they've simply been up against some of the best offenses in the country. They've actually done a pretty good job, holding them to 6.3 points and 41 total yards less than their season averages.
Miami's defense hasn't been spectacular this season, but it has had a similar problem to Virginia Tech. It has simply played eight opposing offenses that average 31.4 points and 430 total yards per game. Both team's defensive numbers have been inflated due to the quality of offenses they have faced.
Neither of these offenses is really lighting it up as Virginia Tech averages 29.0 points overall and 23.0 on the road. Miami averages 26.9 points and 29.0 at home. I look for both teams to be held below their season averages in this one.
I believe a big reason this total is inflated is due to last year's meeting, which saw Virginia Tech win 38-35 at home. That final was simply an aberration considering the total was set at 45.5 points, so oddsmakers were expecting a much lower-scoring game. Eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 58 or less combined points. That 73-point outburst last year was the only exception.
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and that extra preparation certainly favors the defense. There won't be any element of surprise as both teams have had two weeks to prepare for one another. The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Hurricanes last 60 home games.
Virginia Tech is 13-2 to the UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-2 in Hokies last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games following a bye week. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami. These five trends combine for a 42-4 (91% System) backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-31-12||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 200||87-85||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER 200
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low for this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns. These have been two of the best offensive teams in the league for years, and also two of the worst defensive teams. That likely won't change this season with the way their rosters are made up.
Stephen Curry is healthy to start the season for the Warriors, which is going to be huge for them offensively. He'll be leading a talented corps of players that includes David Lee, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes. All four of these players are below-average defensively, but each is above-average on offense.
The Suns will be without Steve Nash, but he's far past his prime. They have brought back Goran Dragic, who started the final 26 games for Houston last season and averaged 18.2 points and 8.3 assists. Dragic will be the face of the franchise for years to come, and he'll help the Suns pick up right where they left off with Nash as he does many of the same things offensively.
23 of the last 26 meetings between these teams have seen 200 or more combined points. That makes for a 23-3 (88%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-31-12||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +6.5||99-95||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value Wednesday the San Antonio Spurs as a home underdog in their opener. This is a team that will be improved this season, and one that is under the radar in the early going.
New Orleans was gifted the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft and it selected Kentucky's Anthony Davis. Eric Gordon opens the season healthy and ready to go, which will be a huge boost if he can stay that way. They also signed Ryan Anderson, a big man that can stretch the court with his ability to shoot the 3-ball.
This team will be much better off offensively with Gordon and Anderson, while Davis will be able to erase defensive mistakes inside. They added both Robin Lopez and Hakim Warrick to add to a very nice rotation of post players.
The Hornets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Hornets. The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings as well. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|10-31-12||Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||75-84||Loss||-107||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams heading into the 2012-13 season. I believe they will challenge the Lakers and Thunder come season's end, and they could end up with the best record in the Western Conference.
Denver goes 10 deep and everyone can score. It traded for Andre Iguodala, giving them the wing defender and offensive slasher it needed. With Ty Lawson running the show, this is going to be one of the best offensive teams in the league once again.
The Philadelphia 76ers are going in a different direction after trading for Andrew Bynum. It will take some time for this team to jell as they go from a guard-led team to one that runs their offense through Bynum. The Nuggets are the more-ready team heading into this opener.
The Nuggets closed out last season with a loss in the playoffs, and they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference foes. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|10-30-12||Dallas Mavericks +8.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||99-91||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Lakers 2012-13 NBA Season Opener on Dallas +8.5
The Dallas Mavericks are showing great value in their season opener against the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday. The hype surrounding the Lakers has them way overvalued early in the season due to the additions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash.
It's going to take some time for this new-look team to jell in the early going. That has been evident by their 0-8 start in the preseason. Plus, Kobe Bryant is a game-time decision tonight with a foot injury.
Dallas has added some nice pieces this season in PG Darren Collison, SG O.J. Mayo, F Elton Brand and C Eddy Curry. You'll likely see these four in the starting line-up tonight along with Shawn Marion. This team easily has enough talent even without Dirk to give the Lakers a run for their money in the opener.
The road team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings in this series. The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet Dallas Tuesday.
|10-29-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7||Top||24-3||Loss||-120||176 h 31 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Arizona +7
The Arizona Cardinals are showing awesome value as a touchdown underdog at home to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are way overvalued in this spot against a Cardinals team that simply does not get the respect it deserves.
Arizona has opened 4-3, and even with a win at New England and a home victory over Philadelphia, this team just gets no love from the books or the betting public. That's evident by the fact that they are a 7-point underdog at home here against a division rival.
Sure, the Cardinals have lost three straight since a 4-0 start, but they easily could have won all three of those contests. They outgained St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota in all three of those contests, and arguably should have won all three because of it. They outgained the Vikings 356-209 in a 14-21 road loss last week.
Arizona's offense is in better hands with John Skelton instead of Kevin Kolb, but what makes this team so underrated is its defense. The Cardinals are giving up just 16.9 points/game while ranking 7th in the league in total defense (312.3 yards/game). They have allowed 23 or fewer points in 16 straight games dating back to last season which is absolutely mind-blowing to me.
These are two pretty evenly matched teams with great defenses, though I would give the edge to the 49ers offensively. However, they have no business laying a touchdown on the road here, especially after losing at Arizona 19-21 last season as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals outgained the 49ers 325-233, and Skelton threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns in the win. After that performance, Skelton won't be intimidated by San Francisco's defense one bit. Alex Smith went 18 of 37 passing for 175 yards for the 49ers.
The Cardinals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in it last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Cardinals are 34-13 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992. The 49ers are 4-14 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game since 1992. Arizona is 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arizona Monday.
|10-28-12||New Orleans Saints +6.5 v. Denver Broncos||Top||14-34||Loss||-110||152 h 34 m||Show|
20* Saints/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +6.5
The New Orleans Saints are undervalued at this point in the season because of their 2-4 start. This team has rebounded nicely with two straight wins, and I like them to carry that momentum into Denver Sunday night. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, but they aren't getting treated like it because of their slow start, which has them under the radar.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye and they are way overvalued because of it. This is a quality team and one that I picked to win the AFC West, but they have no business being this heavily favored against the Saints. I would actually make New Orleans a favorite on a neutral field, so I believe it is a stronger team despite its record. All four of its losses have come by 8 points or less.
The Saints have not missed a beat offensively this season, and with Drew Brees and company this isn't a team that is going to lose by a touchdown or more very often. They can always come back from any deficit, just like they did against the Bucs last week. They were down 7-21 and scored 28 unanswered points, eventually winning 35-28. They are scoring 29.3 points/game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total offense (411.3 yards/game).
New Orleans is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 17.0 points/game. The The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The Saints are 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. These five trends combine for a 39-3 (93%) system backing New Orleans. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|10-28-12||Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -1||26-16||Loss||-120||122 h 8 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -1
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a must-win spot already early in the season. Their bye week could not have come at a better time as they've had a chance to regroup after a 1-5 start. I believe this team is much better than its record, and as a result the Chiefs are way undervalued at this point of the season.
Kansas City ranks 8th in the NFL in total offense (379.3 yards/game), including 3rd in rushing (164.0 yards/game). It is also a respectable 15th in total defense (349.5 yards/game). As you can see, the Chiefs are outgaining opponents by roughly 30 yards/game this season. These numbers are more indicative of a 4-2 team rather than one that's 1-5 like Kansas City.
I believe Oakland is every bit as bad as its 2-4 record. It ranks 19th in the league in total offense (350.0 yards/game) and 17th in total defense (356.7 yards/game). Those numbers about right on par with its 2-4 record.
Both of the Raiders' wins have come on last-second field goals at home against the Jaguars and Steelers, who outgained them by 112 total yards and managed to blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter. The Raiders are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 18.7 points/game.
The Chiefs have simply been shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers all season. They have committed 21 turnovers through six games already, and that pace simply will not keep up. There's no doubt they addressed that issue during their bye week, and I look for Kansas City to take much better care of the football with Brady Quinn getting the start over Matt Cassel. Look for the Chiefs to rely on their third-ranked rushing attack as Jamaal Charles has a monster game against Oakland.
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders are 1-13 ATS vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. These three trends combine for a 28-2 (93%) system backing Kansas City. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|10-28-12||New England Patriots -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams||45-7||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
15* Pats/Rams NFL Sunday No-Brainer on New England -6.5
The New England Patriots should be a much bigger favorite over the St. Louis Rams on a neutral field Sunday in London. They'll have no problem beating the St. Louis Rams by more than a touchdown.
Somehow, the Patriots are a bit under the radar this season because they have three early losses. Those three came by a combined four points as this team could easily be undefeated this season. Public perception is down on them right now because of their overtime win against the Jets last week, but these are the same old Patriots.
The offense is clicking as well as it ever had this season. New England is scoring 31.0 points/game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense (436.1 yards/game). Their offense is a lot more balanced this season as they rank 5th in rushing (149.3 yards/game) and 5th in passing (286.9 yards/game). Even the defense is improved.
The Rams are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they have three wins in the early going, which is more than they had all of last year. This is still one of the worst teams in the league, and they'll be exposed against the Patriots just like they were in a 20-30 home loss to the Packers last week. Aaron Rodgers went 30 of 37 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, and you know Tom Brady is going to have similar success.
St. Louis is 0-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 14.3 points/game. It doesn't have the offensive firepower it takes to keep up with the Patriots in this one. It is scoring 18.3 points/game overall this season while ranking 28th in the league in total offense (315.3 yards/game).
The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a home loss over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 16.0 points/game. St. Louis is 1-11 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992, losing in this spot by 19.5 points/game. The Rams are 0-8 ATS in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992, losing by 21.5 points/game. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-28-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1||30-17||Loss||-125||119 h 4 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Eagles NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia -1
This is a more important game for the Philadelphia Eagles than it is for the Atlanta Falcons as both teams are coming in off a bye. Atlanta is 6-0 on the season and not as good as its record, while Philly is 3-3 and better than its record in my opinion. The Eagles cannot afford to drop to 3-4, while the Falcons can afford a loss.
Andy Reid always works his magic on bye weeks with his players. He is the best head coach in the business during a bye week. That's evident by the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 13-0 when coming off a bye under Reid.
The switch to a new defensive coordinator could not have come at a better time. I look for the Eagles to come up with more big plays and more sacks with their new, more aggressive style. They have been pretty good on this side of the ball anyways, ranking 11th in the league in total defense (330.8 yards/game). They are also 7th in total offense (379.2 yards/game) and haven't reached their potential on that side of the ball.
Atlanta should have lost two of its last three games to the Carolina Panthers and Oakland Raiders. Matt Ryan overcame three interceptions and set up Matt Bryant's game-winning field goal as time expired to give his team a 30-28 home victory over Carolina on 9/30. The Falcons were outgained 357-449 in a 23-20 home victory over the Oakland Raiders on 10/14 that also ended in a Bryant game-winning field goal. Their luck runs out Sunday.
Philly should have won in Atlanta last season, but it lost 35-31. It was outgained 14-0 in the fourth quarter after Michael Vick went out in the third period with a rib injury. The Eagles outgained the Falcons 447-318 for the game and clearly outplayed them despite losing. At home this time around, I look for the Eagles to get their revenge and dominate on the field and on the scoreboard.
This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. Philly is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Atlanta, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|10-28-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Detroit Lions -1||24-28||Win||100||119 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions -1
The Detroit Lions have certainly underachieved up to this point of the season after making the playoffs last year. As a result, they are way undervalued heading into their Week 8 showdown at home with the Seattle Seahawks, who are way overvalued after their surprising, fortunate start.
Detroit is a much better team than its 2-4 record would indicate. It is still moving the ball at will, and the defense is better than it gets credit for. The Lions rank 4th in the league in total offense (406.3 yards/game) and 8th in total defense (319.5 yards/game). Those are numbers more indicative of a 4-2, 5-1 or 6-0 team rather than one that is 2-4. This team has simply been beating itself with turnovers, but I look for them to shore up that problem this week.
Seattle has been fortunate to open 4-3 this season. It was gift-wrapped a win over the Packers by the replacement officials, and somehow managed to beat the Patriots despite giving up 475 total yards. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this year where magic seems to happen, but they are just 1-3 on the road, scoring a mere 12.7 points/game away from home.
The Seahawks do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Lions, who simply will want this game more as they cannot afford to fall to 2-5 if they want to make the playoffs. Seattle is scoring just 16.6 points/game this season while ranking 30th in the NFL in total offense (293.6 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on favorites (DETROIT) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet Detroit Sunday.
|10-27-12||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 47.5||7-38||Win||100||93 h 36 m||Show|
15* Miss State/Alabama ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47.5
I look for a defensive battle Saturday between Mississippi State and Alabama. These are two of the best defenses in the country, and points will be hard to come by, especially for the Bulldogs.
Alabama gives up just 8.3 points/game while ranking 1st in the country in total defense (195.6 yard/game). They rank 1st against the run (58.7 yards/game) and 2nd against the pass (136.9 yards/game) as they simply do not give up an inch.
Mississippi State is yielding just 14.4 points/game while ranking 25th in total defense (327.7 yards/game). Both offenses are kind of vanilla, and each will struggle to move the football on these two stop units.
Each of the last 14 meetings in this series have seen 44 or less combined points with the under going 9-2 in those contests. Considering the total is 47.5 for this meeting, that makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1998. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-27-12||Notre Dame +10 v. Oklahoma||30-13||Win||100||92 h 7 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to get no respect despite their 7-0 start and No. 5 ranking in the BCS and AP polls. I look for head coach Brian Kelly to use the fact that they are 10-point underdogs as big motivation for his team heading into this game with Oklahoma.
Notre Dame has to be feeling disrespected right now and wanting to take out its frustration on the Sooners. It has beaten three ranked teams along the way to this 7-0 start with victories over then-No. 18 Michigan, then-No. 10 Michigan State and then-No. 17 Stanford.
The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-1 start and have pretty much made easy work of everyone expect Kansas State. Well, the Wildcats were the only real physical team that the Sooners have faced, and they beat Oklahoma in Norman 24-19. Oklahoma has only beaten one ranked team this season in Texas, who are clearly down again this season.
As I mentioned before, Notre Dame is a physical team like Kansas State, and that's why it will have success against this soft Oklahoma squad. The Irish give up just 9.4 points/game while ranking 6th in the country in total defense (280.7 yards/game), including 15th against the run (106.7 yards/game) and 13th against the pass (174.0 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses on defense. They are also 38th in rushing offense (193.9 yards/game), winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The Irish are 6-0 ATS n road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons, winning by 21.1 points/game in this spot. Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|10-27-12||Central Florida -2 v. Marshall||54-17||Win||100||92 h 6 m||Show|
15* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -2
The UCF Knights are clearly the superior team in this showdown with Marshall Saturday. The oddsmakers have this one right as they have installed them as a road favorite in this Conference USA clash.
UCF is 5-2 this season with its only losses coming against BCS opponents Ohio State and Missouri. Its five wins have all come by a touchdown or more, and four have come by 13 points or more. This team is clearly the real deal in 2012 and the class of Conference USA.
Marshall is just 3-4 on the season with its only wins coming against Western Carolina, Rice and Southern Miss. Many bettors like Marshall because of their gaudy offensive numbers, but this team doesn't play a lick of defense, which is where this game will be decided.
UCF ranks 38th in the country in total defense (352.9 yards/game) while also giving up only 22.0 points/game. Marshall ranks 100th in total defense (450.0 yards/game) and gives up 41.6 points/game. The Knights will be able to hold the Thundering Herd's offense in check while also scoring at will on their suspect defense.
This play is a lot about program dominance too as the Knights have owned the Thundering Herd this decade. UCF is a perfect 7-0 SU in seven meetings with Marshall dating back to 2005. It should be a much bigger favorite Saturday as it goes for its eighth straight victory in this series. Roll with UCF Saturday.
|10-27-12||Navy +5 v. East Carolina||Top||56-28||Win||100||119 h 17 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Navy +5
The Navy Midshipmen represent my favorite underdog bet for the entire 2012 college football season Saturday. They should not be a dog in a game that I fully expect them to win outright. I'll just take the points for some insurance here folks.
Navy has won three straight since making the switch to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who is easily their best playmaker. He replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game, leading the Midshipmen to a 28-21 overtime victory of the comeback variety on the road.
Reynolds scored on a 15-yard touchdown run to tie the game at 21-21 with 6:35 remaining in the fourth quarter. He threw three touchdown passes in a win 31-13 win at Central Michigan the next week, and led another comeback 31-30 home win over a very underrated Indiana team last Saturday.
This team clearly has a ton of confidence in Reynolds and they will ride their momentum into East Carolina this weekend. Reynolds is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 362 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions on 37 attempts. He has also rushed for 165 yards and two scores, and his dual-threat ability makes him perfect for this offense.
Navy wants revenge from a 35-38 home loss to East Carolina last season. Its last trip to East Carolina resulted in a 76-35 victory for the Midshipmen in 2010. The Pirates are simply overrated at 5-3 this season as their five wins have come against Appalachian State, Southern Miss, UTEP, Memphis and UAB.
As you can see, the Pirates have not beaten a worthy opponents yet. Their three losses came against South Carolina (10-48), North Carolina (6-27) and UCF (20-40). They weren't even competitive when they took a step up in competition. Navy is a much better team than all five of the squads that East Carolina has beaten this season.
Navy is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 17.7 points/game. East Carolina is 1-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. It is losing in this spot by 12.4 points/game. Bet Navy Saturday.
|10-27-12||Florida v. Georgia +7||Top||9-17||Win||100||89 h 49 m||Show|
20* Gators/Bulldogs SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7
The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now after opening the season 7-0. They were underrated in the first half of the season, but now it's time to switch gears and fade them Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia is undervalued at this point of the year after its 6-1 start. It has not played up to its potential after winning the SEC East last season. The Bulldogs are still at least even with Florida talent-wise, and I believe they put their best foot forward Saturday with the East title at stake. A loss would eliminate Georgia in the title race.
The reason Florida is so overvalued here is because it beat South Carolina 44-11 last week at home. That was one of the most misleading scores I've ever seen as it was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Gators were actually outgained 183-191 by the Gamecocks, but South Carolina was -4 in turnovers and set Florida up with several easy scores.
The last two meetings in this series were decided by four points or less, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire again. Georgia beat Florida 24-20 last season while outgaining the Gators 354-226.
Georgia has a much more potent offense than Florida, and while I'll admit the Gators have the better defense, the gap in talent on that side of the ball isn't that far off. Georgia ranks 18th in the country in total offense (486.9 yards/game) while Florida ranks 101st in total offense (350.4 yards/game). Georgia ranks 47th in total defense (367.4 yards/game), but it will be much improved on this side of the ball as the season goes on with the return of several suspended defensive starters recently.
The Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take Georgia Saturday.
|10-27-12||BYU v. Georgia Tech -2.5||41-17||Loss||-108||87 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -2.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are undervalued at this point in the season due to their slow start. This team is much better than its 3-4 record would indicate, and it certainly cannot afford to lose this contest if it wants to become bowl eligible by season's end.
Three of Georgia Tech's losses have come against Virginia Tech and Clemson on the road, and Miami at home. The Yellow Jackets arguably should have won all three of those contests as they blew a 3-point lead over the final minute against the Hokies, a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against Miami, and a 31-30 fourth quarter lead against Clemson.
BYU is coming off a tough 14-17 loss at Notre Dame as it lost in the final seconds to fall to 4-4 on the season. This team simply has not been able to generate enough offense to win games consistently in 2012. It has been held to 24 or less points in five of its last six games, going 2-4 in the process.
BYU has a very good defense, but it has been up against some very weak competition all season on the offensive end. Opposing teams that BYU has played have only averaged 22.6 points and 355 total yards/game this season. The Cougars will have their hands full with a Georgia Tech offense that ranks 15th in the country at 497.7 total yards/game.
The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Independent teams. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|10-27-12||Tennessee +14 v. South Carolina||35-38||Win||100||84 h 5 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +14
The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching two touchdowns against the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday. The Vols are way undervalued due to their 0-4 start in SEC play which couldn't have come against tougher competition.
All four of Tennessee's losses in the SEC have come against Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama, which are four teams that all rank within the Top 13 in the AP Poll. It doesn't get a whole lot easier against South Carolina Saturday, but I believe they catch the Gamecocks in a great spot.
South Carolina is reeling from two straight losses to LSU and Florida that essentially knocked them out of the national title and SEC East title races. I fully expect the Gamecocks to suffer a hangover from those two defeats and not show up Saturday knowing that their goals have been stripped away from them over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will be extra motivated for its first conference victory. It played both Georgia and Mississippi State tough on the road, losing by just 7 points to Georgia and 10 to Mississippi State. It should have no problem staying within two touchdowns Saturday in a game it can win outright.
South Carolina simply does not have the offensive firepower it takes to cover this big of a spread against a team that is just as talented. The Gamecocks only won 14-3 in Knoxville last season against a Vols team that was playing without star quarterback Tyler Bray and star wide receiver Justin Hunter, who were both out with injuries.
Bray is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Hunter has caught 39 balls for 567 yards and four scores. Having these two healthy this time around will make a huge difference in the outcome of this rematch.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 12.6 points/game. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in South Carolina. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|10-26-12||Nevada -3 v. Air Force||Top||31-48||Loss||-110||71 h 37 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -3
The Nevada Wolf Pack should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the Air Force Falcons. I'll gladly back them as only a 3-point favorite here. The Falcons are simply overmatched in this one.
Nevada is a dynamic offensive team that the Falcons will have a hard time keeping up with on the scoreboard. It is scoring 40.6 points/game while averaging 541.1 total yards/game, ranking 6th in the country in total offense. They beat teams behind a balanced attack that features 272.0 yards on the ground and 269.1 through the air.
The Wolf Pack could easily be 8-0 right now, but they are 6-2 due to two losses by exactly one point each. Coming off a 38-39 overtime loss to San Diego State last week, this team will be highly motivated to bounce back with a victory tonight. Nevada is 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 44.0 to 26.5 in the process.
Nevada takes advantage of its red zone opportunities, scoring on 37 of 44 possessions inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Of those 37 scores, a whopping 32 have been touchdowns! Air Force has converted just 21 of 30 trips inside the red zone. Air Force has given up 24 scores on 27 trips by opponents into the red zone, including 19 touchdowns.
The Falcons have faced a very soft schedule with poor offensive teams along the way. Still, they are giving up a ridiculous 427.4 yards/game, ranking 83rd in the country in total defense. They are giving up 222 rushing yards/game and 5.4/carry on the ground, while Nevada is yielding a respectable 156 yards/game and 4.3/carry.
Air Force is 0-7 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Chris Ault is 9-1 ATS versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of Nevada. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Nevada Friday.