|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-10-21||Washington State +1 v. Arizona State||59-64||Loss||-100||7 h 45 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +1
The Washington State Cougars want revenge from their 74-77 (OT) road loss at Arizona State on February 27th at 5-point underdogs. But the Cougars didn't have their best player in Isaac Bonton (17.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG) for that game, and they'll have him back in the lineup now for the Pac-12 Tournament opener. It will make all the difference for this team.
Arizona State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. The Sun Devils entered the season in the Top 25 and have fallen flat on their faces. They are just 10-13 SU & 5-18 ATS this season.
Injuries have taken their toll on the Sun Devils, who are still missing several key players entering the Pac-12 Tournament. And it wasn't a good look for them to close out the regular season as they followed up their 61-75 loss at Colorado with a 59-98 loss at Utah. While I know the Cougars will show up for the Pac-12 Tournament, the Sun Devils may have already packed it in.
The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Sun Devils are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games. Arizona State is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite. Arizona State is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 games overall. The Sun Devils are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after two or more consecutive losses. Bet Washington State Wednesday.
|03-10-21||NC State v. Syracuse -2.5||Top||68-89||Win||100||3 h 45 m||Show|
20* NC State/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -2.5
The Syracuse Orange have been trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch. They've done a really good job of coming up clutch and have saved their best basketball for last.
Indeed, the Orange are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Duke and Georgia Tech. They are 2-0 SU against NC State this season with a 76-73 home win and a 77-68 road win. It's not hard to beat a team three times in a season, either.
NC State is now getting too much respect from the books after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite not having their best player in Devon Daniels. But only one of those wins came against a tournament team with wins over Notre Dame, Pitt (twice) and Wake Forest. That's far from impressive.
Kevin Keatts is 4-12 ATS when revenging a home loss as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Syracuse Wednesday.
|03-09-21||BYU v. Gonzaga -14||78-88||Loss||-109||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* BYU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -14
Gonzaga will be highly motivated to cap off a perfect 26-0 season here and give themselves the opportunity to be the first team since Indiana to go the entire season with an unbeaten record by winning the NCAA Tournament. Look for them to get the win and cover against BYU today for a number of reasons.
The biggest is that the Bulldogs made easy work of Saint Mary's yesterday in a 78-55 win as 18-point favorites. They also got to play the early game, and then rest and watch BYU in the late game. So they will have a rest and preparation advantage here over the Cougars.
Meanwhile, BYU trailed for 95% of the game against Pepperdine and needed a comeback to force overtime. The Cougars eventually won 82-77 as 8.5-point favorites, but their starters were forced to play big minutes because of it. They had five difference players play 30 minutes or more. They were still playing at 2:30 AM EST, and now they have to try and get ready for the Bulldogs for a 9:00 PM EST tip.
Gonzaga beat BYU 86-69 at home and 82-71 on the road in the first two meetings. Note that both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final score showed. Gonzaga raced out to a 52-29 lead at halftime in that 17-point home win before calling off the dogs in the 2nd half. Gonzaga then led BYU 70-49 with under 8 minutes left in the 2nd meeting. The Cougars outscored them by 10 the rest of the way to only lose by 11. I don't think the Bulldogs will leave the back door open in this third and final meeting of the season and will cruise to victory.
The Cougars are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as underdogs. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The favorite is 16-6-4 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Roll with Gonzaga Tuesday.
|03-09-21||Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8||77-80||Loss||-109||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have packed it in and are ready for their season to be over. They have lost seven straight and are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off an 83-73 upset home win over Florida State that shows their potential here in the ACC Tournament. They are the team that cares right now and the one that should win this game in blowout fashion similar to the 79-58 beat down they put on Wake Forest back on February 2nd in their lone meeting this season.
Wake Forest is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in six or more consecutive games. The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Notre Dame Tuesday.
|03-09-21||Oakland v. Cleveland State -2||Top||69-80||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
20* Oakland/Cleveland State ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland State -2
The Cleveland State Vikings improved to 18-7 SU & 16-8-1 ATS on the season after their come from behind win over Milwaukee 71-65 in the semifinals. The way they won that game in comeback fashion after beating Fort Wayne in OT has them brimming with confidence and ready to win the Horizon League Championship and punch their spot in the big dance.
I actually think they take a step down in competition here against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, who are 12-17 SU this season. The Golden Grizzlies are one of the worst teams you will ever see in a conference title game.
Cleveland State went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Oakland this season, winning and covering both meetings on the road. Now they should make it a clean 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS sweep of the Golden Grizzlies here on a neutral Tuesday night.
The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The Vikings are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as favorites. Cleveland State is 12-0 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make less than 42% of their shots over the last two seasons. Oakland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. Bet Cleveland State Tuesday.
|03-09-21||Pepperdine +9 v. BYU||Top||77-82||Win||100||14 h 0 m||Show|
20* Pepperdine/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +9
Pepperdine beat Santa Clara 78-70 as 4-point favorites on Saturday in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament. They now have a day off in between games and there should be no rust factor with them tonight.
I think there could be a rust factor here for BYU. The Cougars got a bye into the semifinals and haven't played since February 27th. They have had the last eight days off now. At the very least, I expect them to get off to a slow start in this game, which is going to make it difficult for them to win by double-digits and cover this spread.
After losing 54-65 as 11-point underdogs at BYU and shooting just 28.8% as a team, the Waves got their revenge at home in the rematch. They pulled the 76-73 upset as 6.5-point home dogs over the Cougars despite shooting just 3-of-16 (18.7%) from 3-point range. So they've proven they can play with BYU twice despite poor shooting. And just a slight improvement in that department could have them winning this game outright again.
The Waves are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Pepperdine is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Waves are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Pepperdine is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 neutral site games as an underdog. Bet Pepperdine Monday.
|03-07-21||Michigan v. Michigan State +8.5||Top||64-70||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5
You can pretty much throw out Michigan State's 50-69 loss at Michigan last time out. The Spartans shot 36.4% as a team including 0-for-9 (0%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again.
Now the Spartans want revenge against their biggest rivals here and to prove that they are a much better team than they showed on Thursday. After all, the Spartans had gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games with upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State.
Now the Spartans get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will make a huge difference. Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, including those upset wins over Illinois (81-72) as 6.5-point dogs and Ohio State (71-67) as 4-point dogs. I don't see Michigan being as motivated in the rematch after just beating them by 19, so that letdown factor will help us get the cover here too.
The Spartans are 54-23-3 ATS in their last 80 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Michigan State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Michigan. Bet Michigan State Sunday.
|03-07-21||Texas Tech +8 v. Baylor||73-88||Loss||-110||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +8
The Baylor Bears have been overvalued since returning from a three-week COVID break. The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games since returning. They only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost to Kansas by 13 as 4.5-point favorites and failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against Oklahoma State. Their only cover was an overtime win as 3.5-point favorites at West Virginia, so they should be 0-4 ATS.
I'll gladly fade the Bears again here as they continue to be overvalued as 8-point home favorites over Texas Tech. This is a Red Raiders team improving rapidly down the stretch under one of the best head coaches in the country in Chris Beard. And you know they are going to want revenge from a 60-68 home loss to the Bears earlier this season.
Texas Tech is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with a 9-point win over Texas as 3.5-point favorites, a 20-point win over TCU as 13-point favorites and a 27-point win over Iowa State as 17.5-point favorites. It has been hard to get margin on the Red Raiders as they have only been beaten by more than 8 points once in their last 22 games overall. That makes for a 21-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread. Take Texas Tech Sunday.
|03-07-21||Memphis +10.5 v. Houston||64-67||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +10.5
The Memphis Tigers (15-6) are trying to make the NCAA Tournament. A win over Houston today would cement their spot in the Big Dance. And they have been playing well enough here down the stretch to give the Cougars all they can handle.
The Tigers are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to SMU 65-67. Six of those nine wins have come by double-digits. They have the confidence right now to hang with Houston.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cougars. While the Tigers are getting zero respect here for what they have done recently, the Cougars are getting a ton of respect for their recent results. They just beat Cincinnati by 38, WKU by 24 and USF by 36 in their last three games coming in with three straight covers. They aren't going to get that kind of margin on this much better Memphis squad.
Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or fewer. Memphis has just one loss to Houston by double-digits in the last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with Memphis Sunday.
|03-06-21||Butler +12.5 v. Creighton||73-93||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +12.5
The Creighton Bluejays are going through some turmoil right now with head coach Doug McDermott using the word plantation recently. He said it following their 69-77 loss to Xavier two games ago, and they proceeded to trail by as many as 22 points in a 60-72 loss to Villanova in their last game. McDermott has since offered to resign.
I just don't trust the state of this Bluejays' team right now, and they certainly shouldn't be laying 12.5 points to a Butler team that already beat them 70-66 at home earlier this season as 7-point dogs. So now the Bluejays are 12.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment that is not warranted.
That's especially the case when you consider the Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are coming off two straight upset wins over Seton Hall (61-52) as 7.5-point dogs and Villanova (73-61) as 11.5-point dogs. And they've been off since February 28th, so they are rested and ready to go. Creighton just played on March 3rd and has only two days to get ready for this game.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Butler) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Butler Saturday.
|03-06-21||Illinois v. Ohio State -2||Top||73-68||Loss||-110||7 h 55 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2
Ohio State is my favorite play of the entire 2020-21 college basketball season Saturday. I just love the spot for them. I know they are going to put forth their best effort of the season after coming in off three consecutive losses. They hadn't even lost two in a row at any other point this season until now.
So it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Buckeyes off those three straight losses, and a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois off three consecutive wins and covers. The last two were in upset fashion as they won at Wisconsin and at Michigan despite not having their best player in Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG). He is likely to be out again for this game as the Fighting Illini already have the No. 2 seed locked up in the Big Ten Tournament.
Ohio State has a lot to play for here as it is battling with Purdue for 4th place in the Big Ten, and the top for teams all get double-byes in the Big Ten Tournament. It's also Senior Day for the Buckeyes. And they are the more rested team having five days to get ready for this game since last losing to Iowa on February 28th. Illinois only has three days to get ready after beating Michigan on March 2nd. That win over Michigan, coupled with being locked into the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, has the Fighting Illini primed for a letdown today.
The extra rest was needed for the Buckeyes. "Our whole team needs rest and we've got to get healthy," head coach Chris Holtmann said. "We had basically a third of our team that wasn't able to really practice much at all last week, or at least very limited. We've got to get as much as we can, get healthy and back to practicing and then move forward and recognize and own those things we've got to get done better collectively."
Senior forward Kyle Young returned from injury for the Iowa game but wasn't at his best. He should be much sharper with the extra time to get ready for this game. Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last five meetings with Illinois, including an 87-81 road win in their first meeting this season. Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when revenging an upset loss as a favorite. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. Ohio State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-06-21||Villanova v. Providence UNDER 140||52-54||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Providence UNDER 140
Villanova and Providence both prefer to play at slow tempos. Both are elite defensive teams as well. And both should struggle on offense today, especially Providence, which shoots just 43.4% as a team. But they stay competitive by holding the opposition to 43.9% shooting and limiting possessions.
We saw that in their first meeting with Villanova this season. Providence actually led 27-24 at halftime before getting their doors blown off in the second half. The Wildcats pulled away for a 71-56 victory in a game that saw just 127 combined points. Now this total has been set at 140 in the rematch, which is way too high.
That's especially the case when you consider Villanova just lost second-leading scorer Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) to a season-ending injury in their 72-60 win over Creighton last time out. They'll have to rely even more on their defense moving forward if they are going to make a run in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.
Each of the last four meetings between Providence and Villanova have seen 135 or fewer combined points and an average of just 124.5 combined points per game. That's 15.5 points less than this total of 140. So the books have missed their mark badly here and we'll take advantage. The UNDER is 23-7 in Friars last 30 games as home underdogs. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|03-06-21||Indiana v. Purdue -6.5||58-67||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -6.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three wins by double-digits and a 4-point win over Wisconsin as a 2-point favorite.
Indiana has gone the other direction, playing its way out of the NCAA Tournament by going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with all four losses by 6 points or more. Things got worse for the Hoosiers recently with the loss of second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 45% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury. The Hoosiers already rely too heavily on Jackson-Davis to get their offense, and now without Franklin (doubtful) that is even more the case. Race Thompson (9.6 PPG) is also questionable for this one.
Purdue already beat Indiana 81-69 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with six of the last seven wins coming by 7 points or more. And the Boilermakers won't have a letdown in the rematch. They are trying to clinch the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten, meaning they'd get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament as each of the top four seeds are awarded one. It's also Senior Day for the Boilermakers. Roll with Purdue Saturday.
|03-06-21||Indiana State +11 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||49-65||Loss||-105||3 h 20 m||Show|
20* Indiana State/Loyola-Chicago MVC No-Brainer on Indiana State +11
I cashed in Indiana State yesterday and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons. This team just does not get the respect they deserves from oddsmakers and hasn't been for a few months now.
While Loyola-Chicago and Drake grab all the headlines in the Missouri Valley, it's Indiana State that has been just as good as both here down the stretch. The Sycamores are 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. And prior to this stretch they upset Loyola-Chicago 76-71 as 8-point dogs and lost 48-58 as 8-point dogs in the rematch, so they've already proven they can play with the Ramblers.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ramblers due to being ranked in the Top 25 after going 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall. But they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with very few blowout victories in there. That's with the exception of their 73-49 win over Southern Illinois yesterday, which they are being overvalued for. Southern Illinois was missing its top two scorers and had no chance of even being competitive in that game. This is a huge step up in class for the Ramblers today.
Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 60 points or fewer in its previous game. The Sycamores are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Indiana State has lost just one of its last 18 games by more than 10 points, which was a 12-point loss in the season finale to Valpo after beating them by 15 the previous day. They didn't care about that game, and they didn't have their best player in Tyreke Key (17.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who returned to score 19 points and grab nine boards against Evansville yesterday.. That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Sycamores pertaining to this 11-point spread. Take Indiana State Saturday.
|03-05-21||Georgia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest||Top||75-63||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have won five straight games and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They have put together this streak under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament. They are still a bubble team right now and that's why I'm not worried about them having a letdown following the big win over Duke on Tuesday.
Wake Forest has totally packed it in. The Demon Deacons have lost six straight with each of the last five losses coming by 13 points or more. They lost by 13 to Pitt, by 38 to Virginia Tech, by 21 to Clemson, by 18 to NC State and by 24 to Duke. Those five losses have come by an average of 22.8 points per game.
Georgia Tech already beat Wake Forest 70-54 as a 9-point home favorite in their first meeting this season. The Yellow Jackets are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. Bet Georgia Tech Friday.
|03-05-21||Evansville v. Indiana State -5||43-53||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Indiana State -5
Loyola-Chicago and Drake get all the headlines in the Missouri Valley. But Indiana State has quietly been one of the most dominant teams in the conference here down the stretch. And they should make easy work of Evansville in their conference tournament opener Friday afternoon.
The Sycamores are 10-2 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Two of those games were against Evansville. They won 76-70 at Evansville and 87-73 at home in the rematch. And now they are laying just 5 points here against the Purple Aces.
While the Sycamores are surging right now, the Purple Aces are just 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall. All seven of those losses came by 6 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive as well.
Indiana State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 60 points or less. Evansville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Sycamores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Indiana State Friday.
|03-04-21||Warriors v. Suns UNDER 224.5||98-120||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Warriors/Suns UNDER 224.5
The Phoenix Suns have been one of the slowest teams in the NBA due to having Chris Paul at point guard. They rank 29th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game. Only the Knicks play at a slow tempo than they do.
But the reason the Suns sit atop the Pacific Division standings is because they are a great defensive team. The Suns rank 6th in defensively efficiency. And most wouldn't know this, but the Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in ranking 5th in defensive efficiency.
The Warriors just got Wiseman and Looney back from injury recently to shore up their interior defense. Neither of these players add much offensively. And the Warriors are a tired team after losing 106-108 in Portland last night, so they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. It will affect their shooting more than their defensive effort.
Looking at the head-to-head history in this series, it's mind-blowing that the oddsmakers have set this total so high tonight. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings, including combined scores of 207, 214, 218 and 201 points in the last four meetings. That's an average of just 210 combined points per game, which is 14.5 points less than this 224.5-point total.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors last six games following a loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four games playing on zero rest. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last five road games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five Thursday games. Combine these four trends with the 7-0 UNDER head-to-head trend and we have a 27-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-04-21||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 219||107-102||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 219
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have already played twice this season, and familiarity favors defense. And based off those first two meetings, I cannot believe the books have set this total as high as they have tonight at 219 points.
The Spurs won the first meeting on January 12th 112-102 on the road for 214 combined points. The Thunder got revenge in the rematch with a 102-99 victory on February 24th and just 201 combined points. That game took place just over a week ago, so these teams are really familiar with one another.
The Spurs are hurting offensively right now with all their injury and COVID issues. The Thunder have scored 78 and 96 points in their last two games coming in and have been held to 102 or fewer points in four of their last five. They are an atrocious offensive team, but they have held six of their last seven opponents to 109 points or fewer and continue to get after it defensively.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Thunder last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 46-21-1 in Thunder last 68 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 7-1 in Spurs last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-04-21||Nebraska +17.5 v. Iowa||Top||64-102||Loss||-109||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +17.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten down the stretch. They are making big strides under Fred Hoiberg, one of the best coaches in the country. He is proving his coaching chops with this team down the stretch.
Indeed, the Huskers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over Penn State as 11-point road dogs, Minnesota as 2.5-point home dogs and Rutgers (by 21) as 8-point dogs. They also covered in an 8-point loss at Maryland as 10.5-point dogs, in a 3-point loss to Penn State as 6.5-point dogs and in a 5-point overtime loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs. Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 14 games by more than 18 points, and any of its last 10 games by more than 17 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.
Iowa is way overvalued now after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall, including a shocking 73-57 win at Ohio State as underdogs last time out. Now this is a sandwich spot for them coming off two straight games against Michigan (lost by 22) and Ohio State, and with huge rival Wisconsin on deck Sunday. I don't expect the Hawkeyes to play with the kind of effort needed to put away Nebraska by 18-plus points tonight.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Nebraska) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-18 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Nebraska Thursday.
|03-04-21||UCF -2.5 v. East Carolina||64-60||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5
The UCF Knights are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only losses came by a combined 2 points with one-point losses to both Cincinnati (68-69) and Wichita State (60-61), which is how close they are to being on a seven-game winning streak.
Now the Knights should make easy work of an East Carolina team coming off nearly a month layoff due to COVID. Of course they are going to be rusty having last played on February 8th. This athletic Knights team will test their conditioning from the first tip.
UCF won 71-64 at home over East Carolina in the first meeting this season to improve 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins coming by 3 points or more. East Carolina is 0-7 ATS when attempting to revenge a road loss this season. Enough said. Bet UCF Thursday.
|03-04-21||Heat v. Pelicans OVER 227||Top||103-93||Loss||-105||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* Heat/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 227
I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust. I cashed in their OVER last night, and they haven't adjusted enough tonight either. The OVER is 26-4 in Pelicans last 30 games overall. The OVER is 13-1 in Pelicans last 14 games as well.
The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 13 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime. They have combined with their opponents to average 244.5 points per game at the end of regulation in those 13 games. That's still nearly 18 points more points than this total of 227. The OVER is 16-2 in Pelicans last 18 home games as well.
The Heat have gotten healthier here of late and have scored 108 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall. They can pretty much name their number against this awful Pelicans defense that has allowed at least 113 points in 12 consecutive games.
Plays on the OVER on home games where the total is 210 or higher (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 43-12 (78.2%) since 1996. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|03-04-21||Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor||Top||70-81||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +12
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be catching 12 points from Baylor. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma (twice). They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.
Now they take on a Baylor team that just hasn't been playing well since returning from a three-week COVID pause. The Bears only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost outright by 13 at Kansas as 4.5-point favorites, and were fortunate to win by 5 at West Virginia in overtime and cover the 3.5-point spread last time out.
Now the Bears in a very tough spot here as they have had just one day to get ready for Oklahoma State. They had to travel all the way from West Virginia on Tuesday night back to Baylor. So they are going to be a tired team, especially after needing OT to beat West Virginia. It's hard to imagine they will be in great shape physically after that COVID pause already, which has played a big role in their recent struggles.
Oklahoma State comes in on two days' rest and highly motivated for revenge after letting the first meeting with Baylor get away from them late in the 2nd half, turning a close game into a 15-point loss. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Plays on road teams (Oklahoma State) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1997. Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.
|03-04-21||Michigan State +12 v. Michigan||50-69||Loss||-109||8 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +12
I've been riding this Michigan State train and I'm not about to stop now as the books have undervalued them yet again here Thursday as 12-point underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines. This is simply too many points for a Spartans team that is once again improving late in the season under Tom Izzo, which seems to happen every year.
Fighting to make the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans have come through in a big way in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State as underdogs as well as a second win over Indiana. Now they are ready to take on a team like Michigan.
The Wolverines showed they were vulnerable last game by losing 53-76 at home to Illinois as 8.5-point favorites. That was an Illinois team playing without Ayo Dosunmu, their best player. Michigan State recently beat Illinois with Dosunmu in the lineup 81-72 as 6.5-point home dogs. Now Michigan would be without its best player in Isaiah Livers (14.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG), who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered in that loss to Illinois.
The Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan. They haven't lost any of the last seven meetings by more than 11 points, making for a 7-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 12-point spread. They won't go down without a fight tonight. Roll with Michigan State Thursday.
|03-03-21||UCLA v. Oregon -4.5||74-82||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5
Oregon has come out the other side of their early COVID problems and are hitting on all cylinders right now. They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road at USC. This run has put themselves in position to win the Pac-12 and steal the title from UCLA with wins in their final two regular season games.
UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall and faltering here down the stretch. The Bruins choked in their last game with a 61-70 loss at Colorado, blowing a 57-55 lead with 8:11 remaining. They couldn't handle the pressure of trying to win the Pac-12 in that game, and I don't expect them to handle it very well here at Oregon either.
The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings in this series, including a 96-75 home win for Oregon over UCLA last year. The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Ducks are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games. Oregon is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Oregon Wednesday.
|03-03-21||Creighton v. Villanova -4||Top||60-72||Win||100||28 h 49 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -4
This looks like the perfect spot to back Villanova. We will 'buy low' on the Wildcats after they just lost outright to Butler as an 11.5-point favorite. They had beaten St. John's and Connecticut by a combined 31 points in their two games prior.
So the lost to Butler was clearly an aberration. The Wildcats were probably looking ahead to this game against Creighton. They want revenge on the Bluejays in a big way. They lost 70-86 at Creighton on February 13th about three weeks ago. Everything went right for Creighton in that game as they shot 59.3% from the field and 46.2% from 3-point range compared to just 37.5% shooting for Villanova. That's not going to happen again.
Villanova is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 16.1 points per game. Creighton is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games, including an 8-point loss at Xavier last time out. The Wildcats are 35-15-2 ATS int heir last 52 games following an ATS loss.
It's also worth noting Creighton is dealing with some turmoil within their program. Head coach Doug McDermott used the word 'plantation' while ripping his team and had to come out and apologize for it. At the very least it's a distraction they don't need right now. At the most it will have caused some chemistry issues. Either way I love the spot for the Wildcats. Take Villanova Wednesday.
|03-03-21||Bulls v. Pelicans OVER 236.5||Top||128-124||Win||100||28 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 236.5
I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust. They haven't adjusted enough tonight. The OVER is 25-4 in Pelicans last 29 games overall. The OVER is 12-1 in Pelicans last 13 games as well.
The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 12 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime. They have combined with their opponents to average 243.9 points per game at the end of regulation in those 12 games. That's still 7 more points than this total of 236.5. The OVER is 15-2 in Pelicans last 17 home games as well.
These teams just met on February 10th less than a month ago. They combined for 245 points in that game with a 129-116 victory by Chicago. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with an average combined score of 240.8 points per game. The fact of the matter is they just can't set these Pelicans totals high enough. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|03-02-21||Nuggets v. Bucks -7||Top||128-97||Loss||-110||11 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -7
Giannis Antetokounmpo is back to playing at an MVP level. He has scored 35 or more points in four consecutive games. A big reason for his and the Bucks' success is the return of Jrue Holiday to the lineup at point guard to help open everything up for everyone else. He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Plus, Khris Middleton has had two 30-point games in his last four contests.
The result has been the Bucks living up to their potential of late in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by an average of 9.6 points per game. Now the Bucks are primed for another big performance here as they have the huge rest adavantage as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.
Meanwhile, Denver will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days. The Nuggets haven't had two straight days off since the beginning of February. Injuries are mounting up as the Nuggets are now without Green, MIllsap, Harris and Campazzo. Being short-handed right now makes this situation even more difficult for them. They needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Bulls 118-112 last night, meaning their starters had to play big minutes as Jokic played 38, Barton 36, Porter Jr. 35, Murray 35 and Morris 33.
The Nuggets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Milwaukee gets the win and cover tonight and continues its recent surge in this favorable spot. Bet the Bucks Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Wisconsin v. Purdue -2||Top||69-73||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Purdue ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Purdue -2
The Purdue Boilermakers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Two of their losses came by a combined 4 points on the road while the other was a home loss to Michigan, which is the best team in the Big Ten.
Now the Boilermakers have their sights set on a Wisconsin team that is struggling mightily to score the basketball right now. The Badgers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They haven't topped 69 points in any of their last six games, and they have been held to 72 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Purdue is 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Wisconsin. The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being Purdue's upset win at Wisconsin a few years back.
Wisconsin is 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season. Take Purdue Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Knicks v. Spurs UNDER 215.5||93-119||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA TOTAL OF THE DAY on Knicks/Spurs UNDER 215.5
The San Antonio Spurs are short-handed right now due to COVID-19 protocols. They will definitely be on tired legs tonight after losing 113-124 (OT) to the Brooklyn Nets last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.
Now the Spurs take on a Knicks team that will play right into their favor and not try and push the tempo. That's because the Knicks rank dead last in pace at 30th and 98.4 possessions per game. The Knicks are also just 23rd in offensive efficiency this season. They are an UNDER bettors' dream.
The Knicks are 23-12 UNDER this season, including 14-3 UNDER in their last 17 road games. The Spurs are 6-3 UNDER in their last nine games overall. San Antonio is not a very good shooting team and that has been a big reason why they rank just 20th in offensive efficiency this season. The Knicks are 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are a solid 13th.
San Antonio is 7-0 UNDER after losing two of its last three games this season. The UNDER is 7-0 in Knicks last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The UNDER is 7-0 in Spurs last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Duke v. Georgia Tech -2||Top||77-81||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -2
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets want revenge from a 68-75 loss at Duke on January 26th. I like their chances of getting that revenge at home this time around when you consider how well they are playing right now, plus the fact that they simply do not lose at home.
The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only loss came on the road by 2 as 4-point dogs at Clemson. They have since won four straight with 6 and 7-point home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, respectively, plus blowout road wins over Miami by 27 and Virginia Tech by 16.
Duke suffered a crushing overtime loss to Louisville last time out on February 27th. They had won four straight against a pretty soft schedule prior to that. Now they have almost no chance of making the NCAA tournament with that Louisville defeat without making a run in the ACC Tournament.
The task is a very tall one here for the Blue Devils, who hit the road and face a Georgia Tech team that is 13-1 SU in its last 14 ACC home games. It's a veteran Yellow Jackets team that is highly motivated to make the NCAA Tournament. This senior-laden team is primed for one of their best performances of the season here on Senior Night.
Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following three or more consecutive wins. Duke is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Blue Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Indiana v. Michigan State -2.5||58-64||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -2.5
The Michigan State Spartans are making a run at the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite being underdogs in all four games. They upset both Illinois and Ohio State at home during this stretch.
The other win was a 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs. That line was way off, and this line still is off with the Spartans being only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch. The Spartans are surging right now, while the Hoosiers are falling flat on their faces under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.
Indeed, Indiana is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. Its only win during this stretch came at home against Minnesota, which remains winless in Big Ten play. They lost by 19 at Ohio State, by 7 at home to Michigan State, by 11 at Rutgers and by 16 at home to Michigan.
Trayce Jackson-Davis had 34 points against Michigan State in that first meeting, and it still wasn't enough. That's because he just doesn't have much help on the perimeter. And making matters worse is the fact that the Hoosiers just lost their best guard in Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to an ankle injury, and he will be out tonight. They will miss his 45% shooting from 3-point range as none of their other regulars shoot it better than 39%.
Michigan State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Indiana with 15 of those wins coming by 3 points or more. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Clippers -4 v. Celtics||112-117||Loss||-106||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers. They have gone just 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall. But a lot of that had to do with injuries. The Clippers are now fully healthy and will be. force moving forward. And keep in mind those four losses came to the Bucks, Grizzlies, Nets and Jazz. They also avenged both of those losses to the Jazz and Grizzlies.
Now the Clippers will be out for revenge from a 115-119 home loss to the Celtics on February 5th less than a month ago in which they blew a 62-51 halftime lead. The Celtics are much worse off now as they are without Marcus Smart and could be without Jaylen Brown, who is questionable with a knee injury.
The Celtics have gone just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games since that win over the Clippers. But they are starting to get some respect tonight after two straight wins over the Pacers and Wizards by a combined 7 points. They faced a Wizards team that was on the 2nd of a back-to-back and only won that game by a single point. And that is a Pacers team that is struggling mightily right now. This will be a big step up in class for the Celtics tonight.
This is a very resilient Clippers team that has only lost two in a row once all season. They are 10-1 SU in their 11 games following a loss this season. Los Angeles is now 41-16 ATS in its last 57 games following a SU loss. The Clippers are 45-21 ATS in their last 66 games as road favorites. Boston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Boston. Take the Clippers Tuesday.
|03-01-21||Air Force +19 v. Colorado State||Top||44-74||Loss||-113||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Air Force +19
Air Force will be out for revenge from a 49-72 road loss at Colorado on Saturday. That was a 41-46 game with just under 10 minutes to play, so it turned from a 5-point game into a 23-point game in the final 10 minutes. I know because I had Air Force +18 and it was a tough beat.
But I'm back on the Falcons today in the rematch. I was surprised to see Colorado State shoot so well in their first game back from a three-week COVID pause. That shot 61% from the field and 9-of-22 (40.9%) from 3-point range. That's the kind of effort it took for them to cover that massive number.
Conversely, Air Force shot just 41.5% as a team and 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range. They are a better shooting team than that as they make 34.2% from 3-point range on the season and should improve in that department. Just a slight improvement shooting and slightly worse effort from the Rams in the shooting department will have the Falcons covering this 19-point spread tonight.
Air Force is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games after a game with 16 or fewer rebounds. That first meeting was a very low-possession game as both teams attempted only 41 shots. Low-possession games definitely favor the underdog and make it tougher for the favorite to cover lofty spreads like this one.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Air Force) after going under the total by 24 points or more in thier last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 30 or more points in their last five game sure 80-36 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Air Force Monday.
|03-01-21||Oklahoma -1.5 v. Oklahoma State||75-79||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -1.5
The Oklahoma Sooners will be out for revenge from a 90-94 (OT) loss to Oklahoma State Saturday. They don't have to wait long to get their revenge here as they get to face the rival Cowboys just two days later. I think the Sooners will be the more motivated team and will get the job done tonight.
The Sooners had won eight of their previous nine games before losing their last two. The Cowboys have won four straight now and will be feeling fat and happy after beating the Sooners on Saturday. And I like the line value on the Sooners based on line from the first meeting. Oklahoma goes from being a 6-point home favorite to a 1.5-point road favorite in the rematch.
The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after three or more consecutive wins. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Sooners. Take Oklahoma Monday.
|03-01-21||Nets v. Spurs +6||124-113||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6
The San Antonio Spurs got a nice break with nine days off here recently. They returned and were rusty in a 99-102 loss at Oklahoma City. But they bounced back with a 117-114 home win over the Pelicans on Saturday. The rust is knocked off now, and they are rested and ready to go while primed to pull an upset against the Brooklyn Nets in San Antonio tonight.
The Nets just had their eight-game winning streak snapped with a 98-115 home loss to the Mavericks on Saturday. I always like fading teams the game after their winning streak ends, because there always seems to be a hangover factor.
The Nets are overvalued as it is after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, so it's definitely time to 'sell high' on them. Especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now with Kevin Durant out, Green and Luwawu-Cabarrot questionable, and Irving battling a shoulder injury.
The Spurs are 22-2 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets. San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The Spurs are 11-2 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season. San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Roll with the Spurs Monday.
|03-01-21||Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 235.5||Top||124-129||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pelicans OVER 235.5
The Pelicans are 24-4 OVER in their last 28 games overall. They are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games. And those numbers would be 25-3 and 12-0 if you got the OVER 228 opener like I did in their last game against the Spurs, which closed at 232.5 and finished at 231.
The Pelicans have now combined with their opponents for 231 or more points in 11 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime. They have averaged 243.1 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last 11 games, which is still nearly 8 points higher than this posted total of 235.5.
The OVER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games overall with combined scores of 233 or more points in four of those five games. The Jazz have scored at least 112 points in 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 games overall. They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, which explains the big run they are on in winning 23 of their last 26 games overall.
One of those wins came 129-118 over New Orleans on January 21st in a game that saw 247 combined points. They had 139 combined points at halftime and cruised to an easy OVER. I expect it to be more of the same in the rematch as this game easily tops 235.5 combined points.
The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 Monday games. The OVER is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings. The OVER is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in New Orleans. The OVER is 14-2 in Pelicans last 16 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games as home underdogs. New Orleans is 7-0 OVER when revenging a road loss this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|02-28-21||Hawks v. Heat -6||Top||99-109||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -6
The Miami Heat are as healthy as they've been all season and it's starting to pay dividends. The Heat have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have beaten the defending champion Lakers, the 2019 champion Raptors and the team with the best record in the NBA in the Utah Jazz during this stretch.
Now the Heat host a struggling Atlanta Hawks team that is as banged up as they have been all season. The Hawks are just 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 9-point road loss to the Thunder as 5.5-point favorites. They were also upset at Cleveland as 8-point favorites in their previous road game.
The Hawks have now lost five of their last six road games and are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Trae Young is battling a groin injury and is questionable to play today. Cam Reddish is doubtful with an Achilles, and they are already without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. It's no wonder they are struggling so much of late.
The Heat have won four of their last five meetings with the Hawks with three of those wins coming by 9 points or more. Miami has a chance to get to .500 for the first time since the beginning of the season, so they should be motivated here and won't be taking the Hawks lightly. Roll with the Heat Sunday.
|02-28-21||Iowa v. Ohio State -3.5||Top||73-57||Loss||-110||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are on their first two-game losing streak of the entire season. They lost to Michigan and Michigan State by a combined nine points their last two games while letting both games slip away late. It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory here at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
While I believe Ohio State is absolutely legit and one of the best teams in the country, the Iowa Hawkeyes are frauds. They rely too much on one player in Luka Garza, and they always seem to fade late in the season. That has been the case again this season as they have gone just 5-5 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are coming off a 22-point loss at Michigan.
Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they just lost backup center Jack Nunge (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury in that loss to Michigan. He was huge for this team in backing up Garza because he's always in foul trouble. The Buckeyes should be able to expose an already soft Iowa defense today.
They did just that in their 89-85 road win at Iowa in their first meeting this season. That was a rare road win in this series as the home team had won and covered four straight meetings prior. The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with Iowa with their last two wins coming by 20 and 18 points.
Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK. The Hawkeyes are 20-41-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games. Ohio State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss. Bet Ohio State Sunday.
|02-28-21||Michigan State +3 v. Maryland||55-73||Loss||-100||5 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Michigan State +3
The Michigan State Spartans always seem to improve down the stretch under Tom Izzo. And they have been doing the same this season as they try and get themselves into the NCAA Tournament field. This team is playing inspired basketball right now and is exactly the type of team I want to continue backing.
Indeed, the Spartans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an upset 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs, an upset 82-71 home win over Illinois as 6.5-point dogs and an upset 71-67 home win over Ohio State as 4-point dogs.
Now the Spartans face their weakest opponent in a long time here in Maryland, a team they should be favored against. The Terrapins are just 14-10 this season. But they are starting to get respect from oddsmakers due to a four-game winning streak against the bottom of the conference. They have wins over Nebraska (twice), Minnesota and Rutgers during this stretch. This is a step up in class here against a Michigan State team that is playing its best basketball of the season.
Michigan State 7-2 SU in its last nine meetings with Maryland with the two losses coming by 3 and 7 points. The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Terrapins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Maryland is 1-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a road game. Take Michigan State Sunday.
|02-27-21||Loyola Marymount +25 v. Gonzaga||69-86||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +25
Gonzaga is overvalued right now due to its No. 1 ranking and undefeated 23-0 record. I successfully faded them with Santa Clara +30.5 in 75-89 loss to the Bulldogs on Thursday. And I'm certainly going to back a better team here in Loyola-Marymount catching 25 points against them tonight.
Loyola-Marymount is 12-7 this season with its largest margin of defeat coming by 17 points to BYU and by 15 to Minnesota. So the Lions haven't even come close do losing by this kind of margin all season. I get that it's Gonzaga and their best opponent yet, but it's still too many points.
The Lions are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game as well. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset road wins over both San Francisco 68-63 as 5.5-point dogs and Pepperdine 81-74 as 5-point dogs.
Few teams in the WCC have played Gonzaga as tough as Loyola-Marymount in recent years. Indeed, four of the last five meetings were decided by 18 points or less with the Lions going 4-1 ATS in those five meetings.
Loyola-Marymount is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games after playing their last game on the road. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Loyola-Marymount Saturday.
|02-27-21||Pelicans v. Spurs OVER 228||Top||114-117||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 228
Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS. Those are the three things you can count on in life right now. And we'll keep backing this OVER train as the books have not set the number high enough today against the San Antonio Spurs.
The OVER 24-3 in Pelicans last 27 games overall, including 11-0 in their last 11 games. They have combined with their opponents for 231 or more points in 10 consecutive games coming in. Only one of those games went to overtime. They have averaged 244.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those 10 games. That's 16.3 points higher than this total set of 228.
The Spurs and Pelicans have combined for 235 or more points in four of their last six meetings. The OVER is 16-1 in Pelicans last 17 games after allowing 115 points or more last game. The OVER is 17-1 in Pelicans last 18 games after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games this season. New Orleans is 9-0 OVER after a combined score of 245 or more points this season. Enough said. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|02-27-21||Wolves v. Wizards -4.5||112-128||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -4.5
The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Beal and Westbrook have formed a great chemistry and they have gotten most of their players healthy, which has made a huge difference in their recent surge.
It's not like the Wizards are beating up on cupcakes, either. They have won outright as 6.5-point dogs at Boston (104-91), as 4.5-point dogs at Portland (118-11), as 7-point dogs at the Lakers (127-124), and as 8-point dogs at Denver (112-110). They also upset Denver (130-128) as 4.5-point home dogs and crushed Houston (131-119) as 2-point home favorites. Their only loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Clippers the night after beating the Lakers in OT, so it was understandable.
The Wizards won't be losing to the awful Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. The Timberwolves are 5-26 SU in their last 31 games overall, including 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last nine losses coming by 4 points or more.
They are one of the most tired teams in the NBA right now playing their 16th game in 27 days. They haven't had two days off in a row since January 16th and 17th. Things have only gotten worse now as Malik Beasley (20.5 PPG) has been suspended for the next 12 games. He was one of the few bright spots on this team. The Timberwolves are still without De'Angelo Russell (19.3 PPG, 5.1 APG) as well.
Minnesota is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with the Timberwolves. Roll with the Wizards Saturday.
|02-27-21||Southern Illinois +19 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||58-65||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +19
I cashed in Southern Illinois +20 yesterday in a 60-52 loss to Loyola-Chicago with the spread never in doubt. I'm back on them today for many of the same reasons in the rematch.
Loyola-Chicago is overvalued right now after going 13-1 in its last 14 games overall. I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is once again way out of hand with the Ramblers being 19-point favorites against a very competitive Southern Illinois team.
The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 14-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games. Since they have 18-point favorites or higher four times and failed to cover in all four of those games. I cased in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively. I also cashed in Valpo +19 in their 2-point loss and then Southern Illinois +20 in their 8-point loss.
It's still a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall. But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number. In their two games prior to this series they lost to Valpo by 1 and beat them by 3 in the rematch to give them a recent common opponent.
Loyola-Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games. The Ramblers play at a slow tempo and have been held to 60 or fewer points in three straight games coming in. It's difficult for them to cover these huge numbers when they play at such a slow tempo and don't get many shots up. The Ramblers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Southern Illinois Saturday.
|02-27-21||TCU v. Iowa State||76-72||Loss||-110||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State PK
The Iowa State Cyclones have been knocking on the door of their first Big 12 victory. They are 0-14 in Big 12 play, but 8-6 ATS as they have several close losses against some of the top teams in the conference. They will be highly motivated to erase that zero from the win column today, and I believe it's their best chance to get a victory all season.
Iowa State has losses to Baylor by 5 and 11 points, WVU by 4 and 5 points, Texas by 6, and Oklahoma by 7 and 10 points. They can play with anyone in this conference. Now they will be looking for revenge from a 76-79 loss at TCU on February 9th in their first meeting this season. They simply went cold from the field in the 2H and allowed the Horned Frogs to come back on them. This team keeps playing hard, and eventually the breaks are going to fall their way late in games. I think that is today.
TCU is just 2-8 SU in its last 10 games overall with its two wins both coming at home by a combined 6 points, including that 3-point win over the Cyclones. Seven of the eight losses have come by 8 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.
The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. Iowa State is a sensational 31-5 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK. TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a home conference loss. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|02-27-21||Air Force +18 v. Colorado State||49-72||Loss||-109||6 h 29 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +18
This is a great spot to fade the Colorado State Rams. They will be rusty as they will be returning from a three-week COVID break with their last game played on February 6th. They won't be sharp enough to put away Air Force by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this ridiculous spread.
Air Force is undervalued right now due to its 5-17 SU record. But the Falcons finally put an end to their 10-game losing streak with a win over New Mexico last time out. And they have been competitive during this skid with each of their last seven losses coming by 13 points or fewer.
Air Force is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. The Falcons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. Roll with Air Force Saturday.
|02-27-21||Illinois v. Wisconsin -4||Top||74-69||Loss||-110||5 h 35 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4
The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 60-75 road loss at Illinois on February 6th earlier this month. I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Illinois is without its best player for this game, and arguably the best player in the country.
Ayo Dosunmu (21.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG) is out with a broken nose right now. I think the Fighting Illini are getting too much respect from the books after covering as 14-point favorites over Nebraska in an 86-70 win in their first game without him. This will be a much taller task against the Badgers today. Dosunmu became the third player in Illinois history with a triple double with 21 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds in that first meeting.
While Illinois has just one day to get ready for Wisconsin after playing Nebraska on Thursday, the Badgers have had the last five days off to get ready for the Fighting Illini. That huge rest and preparation advantage will pay big dividends for the Badgers this afternoon.
The Badgers are 56-36 ATS in their last 92 home games after a win by 15 points or more. The favorite is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.
|02-26-21||Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 233.5||121-130||Loss||-104||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 233.5
The Golden State Warriors and Charlotte Hornets will be playing in a rematch tonight from Charlotte's 102-100 win on February 20th. So they will meet less than a week later after combining for just 202 points in that game. And the total has been set at 233.5 points for the rematch, which is way too high when you consider familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.
Charlotte actually shot 49.3% as a team and 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only scored 102 points. It was played at a very slow pace, and I think this rematch could be just as slow or even slower based on recent developments on the injury front for the Warriors.
Golden State just got back two post players in Wiseman and Looney, which will force them to play bigger lineups and will also help them out defensively as Wiseman is an eraser. They held the Knicks to 106 points and the Pacers to 107 points in their two games since both guys returned. Those games saw just 220 and 218 combined points.
Plays on the UNDER on home games where the total is 230 or higher (Golden State) - in non-conference games off a road win are 37-9 (80.4%) since 1996. Charlotte is 21-5 UNDER in its last 26 games with a total of 230 or higher. Golden State is 8-1 UNDER In its last nine games following two consecutive road games.
The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with the last three seeing 202, 197 and 180 combined points. All seven saw 231 or fewer combined points with an average of just 205.1 combined points per game. That's more than 28 points less than this 233.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|02-26-21||Southern Illinois +20 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||52-60||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +20
Loyola-Chicago is way overvalued right now after going 12-1 SU in its last 13 games overall. I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is way out of hand with the Ramblers being 20-point favorites over a very competitive Southern Illinois team.
The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 13-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games. Since they have been 18-point favorites or higher three times and failed to cover all three of those games. I cashed in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively. And last time out I cashed in Valpo as 19-point dogs in a 2-point loss to Loyola-Chicago.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-11 SU in its last 15 games overall. But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number. And they just lost by 1 and beat Valpo by 3 in their last two games to give them a common opponent with the Ramblers.
Southern Illinois is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games off a close home win by 3 points or less. Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games.
Plays on road teams (Southern Illinois) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Southern Illinois Friday.
|02-26-21||Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 225||Top||119-99||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 225
I cashed in the Grizzlies +8 in their 122-94 upset win over the Clippers last night. Now I like the UNDER in the rematch tonight after seeing just 216 combined points in that first meeting. Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games, so we'll take the UNDER tonight.
Memphis isn't going to shoot 54.3% overall and 57.9% from 3-point range like they did last night. The Clippers won't shoot as poorly as they did, but in the end it will be a similarly low scoring game that stays well UNDER this 225-point total.
The Grizzlies are a much better defensive team now that they got a lot of guys back from injury, including Brandon Clarke, Justice Winslow and Kyle Anderson who are all great defenders. Clearly that showed last night as they stifled the Clippers, who are tough to tame.
And the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA themselves led by Kawhi and Patrick Beverly. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Clippers are just 27th in pace while the Grizzlies are 14th.
The UNDER is 24-8 in Grizzlies last 32 home games. The UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|02-26-21||Jazz v. Heat +6.5||Top||116-124||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +6.5
Whether or not the Utah Jazz keep covering, you're paying a tax to bet them now because the verdict is out on them. That's because they have gone 22-2 SU & 21-3 ATS in their last 24 games overall. My job is to find value, and there's definitely value in fading the Utah Jazz moving forward due to the streak they've been on.
I'll pick my spots, and this looks like a great spot to fade the Jazz. The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 94-112 loss at Utah on February 13th less than two weeks ago. The Heat have gotten a lot healthier since and get them at home this time around.
The Heat are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four wins by 8 points or more and an upset road win over the Los Angeles Lakers. They have gotten several key players back from injury recently including Goran Dragic, and they could get Tyler Herro back tonight. This is pretty much as healthy as they have been all season.
We saw what they could do when healthy last season in making it to the NBA Finals. And after digging themselves an early hole, this team is playing with a sense of urgency right now. Jimmy Butler and company will relish this opportunity for revenge and to put an end to this Utah streak. We'll get one of the biggest efforts of the season from the Heat tonight, which should be enough to cover this 6.5-point spread and possibly win outright. Bet the Heat Friday.
|02-26-21||Pacers v. Celtics -2.5||112-118||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics, who are coming off three straight road losses to the Pelicans (OT), Mavericks (by 3) and Hawks (by 15). That loss to the Hawks was on the 2nd of a back-to-back so it is understandable.
Now the Celtics are back home tonight and had yesterday off to rest. The Celtics were last seen destroying the Hawks by 12, the Nuggets by 13 and the Raptors by 14 in three of their last five home games. And they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.
The Pacers just aren't very good since trading away Victor Oladipo and getting an injury Caris LeVert back for him. T.J. Warren being out has also hurt. The Pacers are just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Their four wins came against the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks and Timberwolves. They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road underdogs tonight to a superior Celtics team.
The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Boston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Celtics are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after playing two consecutive road games. Boston is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. Take the Celtics Friday.
|02-25-21||Wizards +7.5 v. Nuggets||Top||112-110||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7.5
The Washington Wizards are way undervalued right now. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with upset road wins over the Blazers and Lakers, as well as upset home wins over Boston and Denver. Their only loss during this stretch came on the road to the Clippers last time out, which came the night after their upset win over the Lakers in OT, so they were a tired team.
The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season as they are 17-14 SU & 13-18 ATS. They are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Injuries have taken their toll as the Nuggets are without Harris, Millsap, Green, Dozier and Whittington. They just can't be laying 7.5 points to this surging Wizards team tonight given their current injury situation.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - a tired team playing six or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-21 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Denver is 4-12 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 points per game or more this season. The Nuggets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Wizards Thursday.
|02-25-21||Ohio State v. Michigan State +4||67-71||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +4
The Michigan State Spartans have finally turned the corner and are making a late-season push to make the NCAA Tournament. Tom Izzo-coached teams always get better as the season goes on, and it's finally happening for this Spartans team.
They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Indiana 78-71 as 6.5-point road underdogs and Illinois 81-72 as 6.5-point home underdogs. Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to Ohio State tonight in a game they should be favored in.
This is a tough spot for Ohio State. They are coming off a deflating 87-92 home loss to their biggest rivals in the Michigan Wolverines. It pretty much assured that they wouldn't be winning the Big Ten this season. They blew a late lead in that game. I think they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Michigan State tonight. Plus, they will be without one of their better players in Kyle Young (8.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who is out with a concussion suffered against Michigan.
Michigan State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Ohio State. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after going over the total in two or more consecutive games. Michigan State is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Spartans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs. Take Michigan State Thursday.
|02-25-21||Clippers v. Grizzlies +8||94-122||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after losing by 31 to Phoenix and by 10 to Dallas in its last two games coming in. But the Grizzlies just got back Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson from injury and recently got Justice Winslow back.
There was going to be some rust and chemistry issues with all these players returning, but they should be less now. The Grizzlies have had the last two days off to get some rest and get some practice in together. Look for them to come out hitting on all cylinders tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers, who have won six of their last eight with their only losses coming to Utah and Brooklyn. They are coming off a 19-point blowout win over the Wizards last time out. But that was a tired Wizards team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime win over the Lakers the night before. Take the Grizzlies.
|02-25-21||Santa Clara +30.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||75-89||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
20* WCC GAME OF THE MONTH on Santa Clara +30.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the No. 1 ranked team in the country. With that ranking and their unbeaten 22-0 record comes a following from the betting public that makes them overvalued. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs tonight.
Santa Clara (10-6) is one of the better teams in the conference and very capable of staying within this ridiculous 30.5-point spread. Their largest loss of the entire season came by 23 points, and that was at USC. If they can stay within 23 points of that very good USC team, you have to like their chances of covering this huge number.
Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less this season. The Bulldogs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. They have covered each of their last three games and are overvalued because of it. It's time to fade them. Bet Santa Clara Thursday.
|02-25-21||Western Kentucky +12 v. Houston||57-81||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +12
This game means a lot more to Western Kentucky (15-4) than it does Houston. The Hilltoppers could get into the NCAA Tournament with an upset win here. They are a senior-laden team that returned all five starters and a win over No. 12 Houston would really help their cause.
"These kinds of opportunities are something that we kind of cherish a little bit," Hilltoppers coach Rick Stansbury said. "You don't get a lot of them. Sometimes you've got to back into them every once in a while. It's very obvious if you watched them Sunday you can understand why there aren't a lot of takers to go to Houston opportunity-wise, we just felt like there is a lot more to gain than there is to lose. As a coach, as a player, everybody else, you just want an opportunity to play against the best, and there's no doubt they are one of the best teams in the country. It's very obviously a great challenge for us, but at the same time a great opportunity."
I think that quote says all you need to know about what this game means for the Hilltoppers as they will be more motivated for a win in this game than at any other point all season. They've already shown they can play with some elite teams. They only lost by 6 to West Virginia on a neutral and actually upset Alabama on the road. That win over Alabama looks really good right about now.
The Hilltoppers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs. Western Kentucky is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Cougars have recent upset losses to Wichita State 63-68 and East Carolina 73-82, so they are far from invincible. And they shouldn't be laying double-digits here against this underrated Hilltoppers squad. Roll with Western Kentucky Thursday.
|02-24-21||Florida State v. Miami-FL +11.5||88-71||Loss||-110||10 h 0 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami +11.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Miami Hurricanes tonight. They have lost three straight coming in including a 60-87 loss to Georgia Tech last time out. Now the Hurricanes are in their largest underdog role (+11.5) of the entire season tonight.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Florida State Seminoles. They have won three straight and eight of their last nine coming in. But they are just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with a 10-point loss to Clemson and an 11-point loss at Georgia Tech. They only beat Pitt by 7 on the road and won by 13 at Louisville in their one standout road performance.
Miami is going to want revenge from a 59-81 road loss at Florida State as 11.5-point underdogs on January 27th. The Hurricanes have gotten a lot healthier since that point and are now catching 11.5 points again at home this time around. So there has been zero adjustment for home-court advantage and there should be at least a little.
Miami recently upset Duke 77-75 as 11-point home dogs and took Virginia Tech to OT as 5-point home dogs in two of its last three home games. They also upset Louisville as 4.5-point home dogs. They have played their best basketball at home this season.
The Seminoles are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games into the season. The Hurricanes are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. Take Miami Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Wolves v. Bulls -4||Top||126-133||Win||100||28 h 54 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4
The Chicago Bulls have won four of their last five games coming in. Their only loss came by 7 as 6.5-point closing road underdogs to the 76ers. If you bet the Bulls early you won on them as they got steamed and gave the 76ers all they could handle.
I love this favorable spot for the Bulls tonight. They had Tuesday off while the Minnesota Timberwolves had to play in Milwaukee. Not only will this be the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, it will also be their 6th game in 9 days and their 3rd straight road game.
This will also be the 15th game in 25 days for the Timberwolves, who simply have to be the most tired team in the NBA right now. Amazingly, they haven't had more than one day off in a row since January 16th and 17th. It's no wonder they are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall. They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bulls tonight, either.
Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are 3-14 on the road this season and losing by nearly 10 points per game. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 130 points or more last game. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Tulane +11.5 v. Memphis||Top||46-61||Loss||-115||28 h 56 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +11.5
I've been riding this Tulane train and will continue to do so Wednesday. The Green Wave are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They haven't lost any of those seven games by more than 8 points.
Their only non-cover came by 1.5 points in a 3-point loss to UCF as 1.5-point underdogs. UCF couldn't miss as they went 14-of-26 from 3-point range, yet the Green Wave still managed to make a game of it and only lose by 3 points. That's just how well they are playing right now.
Now the Green Wave take on a Memphis team that has been off since February 6th due to a COVID break. We saw Memphis return from a similar length COVID break last time and lose outright to Tulsa. There will be a similar rust factor involved in this return as well, and they should not be laying this big of a number to a Tulane team playing their best basketball of the season. It's also worth noting Tulane only lost by 6 to Memphis at home in their first meeting this season and will want some revenge.
Memphis spent 10 of the days doing zero team activities and conditioning. Penny Hardaway noted how out of shape his players were when they returned to practice finally. And I think the Tigers are just getting too much respect right now after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They won't return the same team they were prior to this COVID pause.
Tulane is 7-0 ATS in in its last seven games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Tulane is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more last game. The Green Wave are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Green Wave. Take Tulane Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Warriors v. Pacers -2||111-107||Loss||-110||28 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2
This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a hard-fought game in New York last night. It will also be the 4th road game in 6 day for the Warriors.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have gotten a nice break and it has had nothing to due with COVID. It was simply the weather in Texas. All teams would kill for a break right now like the one the Pacers just got. I think they come back re-energized and they needed the break being short-handed with TJ Warren and Caris LeVert both remaining out and after trading away Victor Oladipo.
The Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on zero rest. Indiana is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 meetings with Golden State. The Pacers are 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. Indiana is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and averaging 120.5 points per game.
Plays on home favorites (Indiana) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Temple +5.5 v. South Florida||65-47||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +5.5
The Temple Owls will be out for revenge from a 76-83 home loss to South Florida on Sunday. Now the Owls get their shot at revenge and come back as 5.5-point underdogs after being just 2-point dogs in their first meeting. This is too big of an adjustment.
Temple committed 17 turnovers compared to just 7 for South Florida in the first meeting, which was the difference. They won't be so sloppy with the ball as the Bulls rarely force turnovers at this kind of rate. In fact, the 17 turnovers were the most they forced in any game all season. And Temple had 14 or fewer turnovers in nine of their previous 11 games, so they do a pretty good job of holding onto it.
Temple is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games off a home loss. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet Temple Wednesday.
|02-23-21||Ole Miss v. Missouri -3||60-53||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri -3
The Missouri Tigers want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season just two weeks ago. They lost 59-80 at Ole Miss on February 10th. The Tigers now come back as only 3-point home favorites in the rematch, and I look for them to get their revenge and cover this short number.
Missouri is 8-2 at home this season with wins over the likes of Alabama and Illinois. Ole Miss is 4-5 on the road this season and coming off a poor 56-66 home loss to Mississippi State. They had won four straight prior to that defeat, which I think has them overvalued.
Plus the fact that they already beat Missouri by 21 has them overvalued as well. Missouri is undervalued after losing three of its last four, but it ended a three-game skid with a 15-point win at South Carolina last time out.
Ole Miss is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after winning two of its last three games coming in. The Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Missouri Tuesday.
|02-23-21||Iowa State +23 v. Baylor||Top||72-77||Win||100||20 h 33 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +23
Baylor makes its long-awaited return from a three-week COVID break as they have been off since February 2nd. There will be some rust involved, and they have no business laying 23 points to Iowa State in their first game back from the break.
The Cyclones have showed some fight and will continue to battle to try and earn that first Big 12 victory. That's especially the case playing the No. 2 team in the country here in Baylor. And the Cyclones have quietly posted a winning ATS record (7-6) in Big 12 play this season.
Their recent efforts including a 4-point loss to WVU as 11.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to TCU as 4.5-point dogs and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 11.5-point dogs. They have lost just one of their last seven games by more than 18 points.
Iowa State already showed they could hang with Baylor in their 65-76 loss as 15.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season. Now they are 23-point dogs in the rematch, a 7.5-point adjustment that has no basis, especially with the awful spot for Baylor coming back from a COVID break.
The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Iowa state is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS coming in. The Cyclones are 61-38 ATS in their last 99 games when revenging a same-season loss. Bet Iowa State Tuesday.
|02-23-21||Kings +7 v. Nets||Top||118-127||Loss||-107||10 h 5 m||Show|
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +7
This is one of my favorite situations of the entire season. This is a game the Kings will likely win outright due to the situation, and we'll take the points for some added insurance. This should be one of your largest wagers of the season in the NBA because of it.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nets after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Their last two wins came against the Lakers and Clippers, so it's automatically a letdown spot. And they return home from a five-game road trip. I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kings, who are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. So we are getting max value on the Kings now, and the Nets are overvalued after covering six straight. Plus, the Kings will be the more motivated team as they want revenge form a 125-136 home loss to the Nets on February 15th just over a week ago.
I just see the Nets relaxing here and not showing up at all after feeling a huge sense of accomplishment sweeping that five-game road trip. Especially since they already beat the Kings once on that trip. The Nets are still without Kevin Durant and could be without both Green and Luwawu-Cabarrot, who are both listed as questionable.
Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog. Brooklyn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
|02-23-21||Illinois v. Michigan State +7||72-81||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +7
The Michigan State Spartans won't be packing it in any time soon under Tom Izzo. They still have a shot to make the tournament. And their 78-71 upset win as 6.5-point dogs at Indiana last time out helped. Now a signature win over a Top 5 Illinois team would go a long way to helping their cause tonight.
We've seen the Illini be vulnerable in two of their last three games against Big Ten bottom feeders. They needed overtime to beat Nebraska 77-72 as 14-point favorites. They also struggled to put away Northwestern at home in a 73-66 win as 13-point favorites.
Illinois hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Michigan State by more than 7 points. That makes for a 14-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Michigan State is 52-23-3 ATS in its last 78 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Spartans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs. Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.
|02-23-21||St. Louis -3 v. VCU||Top||65-67||Loss||-112||9 h 34 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -3
It's a good time to 'buy low' on Saint Louis off their worst loss of the season a 53-76 loss at Dayton as 6-point favorites. They had been rolling with four straight victories by a combined 69 points prior to that setback. They shot just 27.1% from the field against Dayton, and that's not going to happen again here.
Look for Saint Louis to get back on track against VCU here Tuesday. They face a Rams team coming off an upset loss 76-79 as 9-point favorites against George Mason. And the news gets worse as they lost their best player in Nah-Shon Hyland (19.2 PPG) to a foot injury late in that game. They won't have his services tonight, and it's a huge loss for the Rams that isn't being factored into this line enough.
The Billikens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points. VCU is 0-6 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. VCU is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 games as an underdog, including 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. Take Saint Louis Tuesday.
|02-22-21||Wizards +7 v. Lakers||127-124||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
15* Wizards/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +7
The Los Angeles Lakers are in a world of hurt right now without Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroeder. They are just a mediocre team without these two, yet they keep getting priced like the defending champs that won the NBA Finals. It's a great time to fade the Lakers right now.
The Lakers are just 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with a 17-point loss to Denver, an 11-point loss to Brooklyn and an upset loss to Miami. Their only win they needed a big finish to pull away from the Timberwolves by 8, and the Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Lakers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wizards, who have been grossly undervalued for over a week now and continue to be here. The Wizards are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Celtics, Nuggets and Blazers. They also beat the Rockets by 12 as short favorites. And they can certainly hang with this version of the Lakers and possibly pull off yet another upset tonight.
They are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Lakers haven't had more than one day off in a row since the beginning of February. The Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game on the season. Roll with the Wizards Monday.
|02-22-21||Hornets +12.5 v. Jazz||Top||110-132||Loss||-110||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5
The Utah Jazz are now overvalued after going 20-2 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Consider that this is only the 2nd time all season that they have been a favorite of 12.5 points or more tonight. The last time they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against the Pistons.
The Hornets have been great in the underdog role all season. And they will want revenge from a 138-121 home loss to the Jazz on February 5th earlier this month. They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 8 days here tonight. And they have gotten a lot healthier due to this break with both Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington back in the lineup now.
This is the ideal letdown spot for the Jazz. They already beat the Hornets earlier this month. And they are coming off six straight games against many of the top teams in the NBA in the Celtics, Bucks, Heat, 76ers and Clippers (twice). They won't be very motivated to face the Hornets tonight.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Charlotte) - off a home win, a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Charlotte is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog. Utah is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games following a loss. Bet the Hornets Monday.
|02-22-21||Evansville +11.5 v. Drake||Top||63-74||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Evansville +11.5
Evansville lost 71-85 at Drake yesterday. Now the Purple Aces come back as 11.5-point underdogs in the rematch today. They will be the more motivated team, and there's several reasons to believe they will improve off that effort.
For starters, Drake shot 65.4% as a team and 11-of-21 (52.4%) from 3-point range. They had a player come off the bench and score 32 points on 12-of-14 shooting and 5-of-7 from 3-point range. Evansville only made 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range. None of those things are likely to happen again, and it's actually impressive they only lost by 14 with all of those factors.
Evansville just doesn't get blown out very often. That 14-point loss was their third-largest defeat all season. The other two came to Bradley and Louisville. They stayed within 13 of Loyola-Chicago in both their meetings. And I think they improve upon yesterday's effort and take Drake to the wire today.
Especially with Drake beating without leading scorer Hemphill (14.1 PPG) and with second-leading scorer Penn (11.2 PPG) questionable. They are short-handed right now and will struggle in this back-to-back situation.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Evansville) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher are 33-13 (71.7%) ATS since 1997. Bet Evansville Monday.
|02-22-21||Valparaiso v. Southern Illinois -1.5||64-67||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Southern Illinois -1.5
Southern Illinois will be out for revenge from a tough 65-66 home loss as 2-point favorites against Valparaiso yesterday. Now the Salukis come back as 1.5-point favorites in the rematch. I think they get their revenge with a win and cover today.
Southern Illinois has been great at getting revenge in these situations recently. In fact, they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three tries in this situation after losing the first game of these double-headers. After losing 62-74 to UNI, they won 71-68 on the rematch. After losing 66-74 at Bradley, they won 69-68 in the rematch. And after losing 55-80 to Illinois State, they won 59-49 in the rematch.
The last time Valpo won the first game of the double-head, they lost the second game. They won 70-57 at UNI before losing 60-74 in the rematch. And I think we see more of the same here from these two teams with the Salukis getting the job done in the rematch and the Crusaders letting up and faltering.
The Salukis are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Valparaiso is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog. Take Southern Illinois Monday.
|02-21-21||Nets v. Clippers -5.5||112-108||Loss||-105||11 h 24 m||Show|
15* Nets/Clippers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Clippers just got Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back in the lineup. To no surprise, they ended Utah's incredible run with a 116-112 victory on Friday. And now they are going to put an abrupt halt to Brooklyn's five-game winning streak.
The Nets are overvalued due to this streak that has also seen them cover five in a row. Amazingly, they have done most of it without Kevin Durant, who is out with an injury. But they aren't good enough to hang with a team the caliber of the Clippers without Durant.
This will be the 5th straight road game for the Nets, who have probably spent the last couple days partying in Los Angeles after upsetting the Lakers last time out. But the Lakers were without Anthony Davis and Dennis Shroeder for that game. Their task gets much tougher here against the Clippers, who are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.
The Clippers also want revenge from a 120-124 road loss at Brooklyn on February 2nd. Durant scored 28 points on 11-of-13 shooting in that contest. Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more against a team that's off two or more consecutive wins as road underdogs are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1996. Take the Clippers Sunday.
|02-21-21||Penn State +11.5 v. Iowa||68-74||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +11.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Iowa Hawkeyes after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They had gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games prior to this streak. The only difference is that they have shot it much better and their opponents have not.
It's also time to 'buy low' on Penn State after going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. Two of those losses came by a combined 3 points and the other was a 10-point loss to Ohio State, which is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now.
Penn State has been better than its 7-11 record would indicate. Eight of the 11 losses have come by 10 points or less. And I think they have a great chance to stay within this 11.5-point spread of the Hawkeyes, who just don't play enough defense to put teams away consistently.
Penn State is 3-2 SU in its last five meetings with Iowa. The Hawkeyes haven't beaten the Nittany Lions by more than 11 points in any of their last seven meetings, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing Penn State pertaining to this 11.5-point spread. The Nittany Lions are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as road underdogs. Roll with Penn State Sunday.
|02-21-21||Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 231.5||Top||115-120||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Pelicans ABC No-Brainer on OVER 231.5
Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS. I have made a lot of money backing Pelicans OVERS here of late and I'm not jumping off the train Sunday as once again the oddsmakers have failed to set the number high enough. They need to set their numbers in the 240's but somehow they haven't been.
As a result, the OVER is 21-3 in Pelicans last 24 games overall. That includes 8-0 in their last eight games overall with each of their last six games seeing 235 or more combined points without any of them going to overtime. They have averaged 251 combined points in their last six games, which is nearly 20 points more than this 231.5-point total.
The Boston Celtics will oblige and play up-tempo with the Pelicans just has they have in their last two games in going OVER the total with the Hawks in games that saw 236 and 230 combined points. The Celtics have to play small ball because they don't have a traditional center, and they are missing their best perimeter defender right now in Marcus Smart.
The Pelicans and Celtics have combined for 231 or more points in three of their last four meetings. The OVER is 12-1 in Pelicans last 13 home games. The OVER is 16-1 in Pelicans last 17 games after a combined score of 225 points or more. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|02-21-21||Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 146.5||Top||92-87||Loss||-110||5 h 55 m||Show|
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan/Ohio State UNDER 146.5
I'm taking the UNDER in this huge Top 10 showdown between Michigan and Ohio State. Points will be at a premium in this rivalry. And both of these teams can lock the other down defensively.
Ohio State is giving up just 63.3 points per game on 38.2% shooting at home this season. Michigan is allowing 64.9 points per game on 37.7% shooting on the season, and 62.8 points per game and 38% shooting in conference play.
The Wolverines are rusty on offense right now because they had a three-week break due to COVID. But their defensive effort will be there like it always is as that is their bread and butter. And they like to slow the tempo.
The head-to-head history is what really has me excited about this bet on the UNDER. Ohio State and Michigan have combined for 142 or fewer points in each of their last 11 meetings. That's an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|02-21-21||Michigan v. Ohio State +2||Top||92-87||Loss||-101||5 h 50 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +2
The Ohio State Buckeyes should not be home underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines today. The Buckeyes are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points. That includes road wins over Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland and Penn State during this stretch.
Michigan struggled to beat Wisconsin and Rutgers in its two games since returning from a three-week break due to COVID. I think there's still some rust here with the Wolverines, and they won't be able to beat an Ohio State team that is playing better than anyone else in the Big Ten right now. Yet the Buckeyes continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.
Ohio State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Michigan. That includes a 77-63 win last year. The Buckeyes are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Ohio State Sunday.
|02-20-21||Suns v. Grizzlies UNDER 226||128-97||Win||100||12 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Grizzlies UNDER 226
Both the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. It will also be the 4th game in 5 days for the Grizzlies. I think the tired legs of both these teams will help us cash in this UNDER as neither is going to look to push the pace, and shooting will be affected.
Phoenix already prefers to play at a slow tempo with Chris Paul at point guard. The Suns rank 28th in the NBA in pace at 98.4 possessions per game. Memphis has JA Morant at point guard, but they still don't push the pace either. They are in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace at 102.2 possessions per game.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series with four of those seeing 223 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 23-7 in Grizzlies last 30 home games. The UNDER is 10-1 in Grizzlies last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Phoenix is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games following two or more consecutive overs. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|02-20-21||Warriors v. Hornets +2||Top||100-102||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +2
The Charlotte Hornets have a huge rest and preparation advantage in this game over the Golden State Warriors and should not be underdogs because of it. Those advantages will lead them to an outright victory here at home Saturday night.
The Hornets have been off since February 14th due to COVID. So they have had five days to get ready for this game and are expected to have Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington back in the lineup from injuries. I expect the Hornets to come back rejuvenated following this nice break.
This is an awful spot for the Warriors. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 120-124 loss in Orlando last night. It will now be the 8th game in 15 days for the Warriors, who haven't had two days off in a row in all of February. They are also still without Wiseman and Looney, so they don't have much depth.
The Warriors are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on zero days' rest. The Hornets are 19-8-2 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs. Charlotte is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games as home underdogs. Bet the Hornets Saturday.
|02-20-21||San Diego +32.5 v. Gonzaga||69-106||Loss||-109||11 h 44 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego +32.5
The lack of action due to COVID and the 3-7 SU record has the San Diego Toreros undervalued right now. That has been evident in their most recent games as the Toreros are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
They returned from a three-week layoff and upset Santa Clara 71-60 as 6.5-point road underdogs on Thursday. So the layoff clearly didn't affect them, and they are obviously excited to be back in action.
Now the Toreros will take another shot at Gonzaga after losing 62-90 to the Bulldogs but covering the 29.5-point spread on January 28th in their first meeting. Now the Toreros are catching 32.5 points in the rematch, which is too much. Gonzaga won't be motivated enough to cover this huge number against a team they already beat by 28.
The Toreros are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. San Diego is 32-14 ATS in its last 46 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more. The Toreros are 44-22 ATS in their last 64 road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less of their shots this season. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with San Diego Saturday.
|02-20-21||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +12||Top||66-56||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +12
The Iowa State Cyclones are 0-12 in Big 12 play this season. They will keep fighting to try and get that first conference win until they get it, and then they might pack it in. But until then they want to erase that zero, and they have been playing like it.
They have been pretty competitive as they are 6-6 ATS in Big 12 play. And one of those covers came in a 72-79 loss at Oklahoma as 14-point dogs. Now the Cyclones come back as 12-point home dogs in the rematch and I think they can stay within the number again.
It's definitely a great time to 'buy low' on the winless Cyclones and 'sell high' on the Sooners, who have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But their last five wins have all come by 7 points or fewer, so it's not like they are blowing teams out.
Iowa State is 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Oklahoma. The Sooners are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their last game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (20% or less) are 39-11 (78%) ATS since 1997. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|02-20-21||George Mason +10.5 v. VCU||Top||79-76||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason +10.5
It's time to 'sell high' on VCU off six straight victories. They won four straight games against the class of the Atlantic 10 in Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Bonaventure and Richmond. And now they have a game on deck at Saint Louis in three days. That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot for them, and an ideal letdown spot to take the double-digit points with George Mason.
Plus, VCU already beat George Mason 66-61 on the road as 5.5-point favorites on January 6th in their first meeting this season. So the Rams won't be all that motivated to beat them again. And we've seen a 5-point line adjustment for flipping home courts, which just goes to show how overvalued VCU is right now.
George Mason comes in playing well having gone 4-3 SU in its last seven games overall. That includes their 32-point win over Fordham last time out on February 10th. Now the Patriots have had nine days to get ready for this rematch with VCU. The Rams only have two days to get ready for this game after beating Richmond on Wednesday.
George Mason is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games when playing with 7 or more days' rest. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. VCU has only one win by more than 12 points in its last 10 games, so it's not like they are blowing teams out on the regular.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (George Mason) - off a blowout conference win by 20 points or more against an opponent that's off two straight conference wins are 65-36 (64.4%) ATS since 1997. Bet Georgia Mason Saturday.
|02-19-21||Utah State +108 v. Boise State||Top||77-81||Loss||-100||10 h 10 m||Show|
20* Utah State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State ML +108
Utah State will be highly motivated for a win tonight. They are battling Boise State for first place in the Mountain West and this is essentially a must-win if they want to take down the conference title. That's especially the case after losing 70-79 at Boise State on Wednesday.
Now the Aggies will be out for revenge here and don't have to wait long to get it as they meet up again on Friday. Utah State shot just 3-of-16 (18.7%) from 3-point range and made only 9 free throws in that 9-point loss. Just a slight improvement in both categories will have them winning this rematch outright tonight.
The Aggies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Utah State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet Utah State on the Money Line Friday.
|02-19-21||Suns v. Pelicans OVER 230.5||Top||132-114||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Pelicans OVER 230.5
The OVER is 19-2-1 in Pelicans last 22 games overall. They have a historic offensive rating during this stretch, and also a historic defensive rating as they have been so poor on that end. And once again the books have set the number too low here in a Pelicans game.
The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games with all six games seeing 231 or more combined points, which would cover this OVER. They have averaged 248.5 combined points per game with their opponents during this stretch with none of those games going to overtime. That's 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 230.5.
The Suns have really picked it up offensively since getting Devin Booker back healthy, which is no surprise. The OVER is 4-1 in Suns' last five games overall with them combining with their opponents for 231 or more points in four of those. They have scored 119 points or more four times, and their job gets easier offensively tonight with the injury to New Orleans' best defender in C Steven Adams, who is doubtful with an ankle injury.
New Orleans is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after scoring 115 points or more in its previous game. The OVER is 5-0 in Suns last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Suns last six games playing on two days' rest. The OVER is 11-1 in Pelicans last 12 home games. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|02-19-21||Thunder v. Bucks UNDER 231.5||85-98||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 231.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are tired right now and it's hurting them offensively. They have scored 115 or fewer points in each of their last four games overall, including the 96 they scored against Toronto last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.
Now the Bucks take on an Oklahoma City Thunder team that just recently upset them 114-109 as 11.5-point underdogs on February 14th less than a week ago. That game saw just 223 combined points, and this total is 231.5 for some reason, which is 3 points higher than the 228.5-point total for that first meeting. Familiarity favors defense and the UNDER.
The Thunder have been a good UNDER bet here of late, too. They have combined for 223 or fewer points with their opponents at the end of regulation in five of their last six games overall. They have averaged just 216.5 points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, which is 15 points less than this 231.5-point total.
The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee. The UNDER is 44-21-1 in Thunder last 66 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 games playing on zero rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|02-18-21||Colorado v. Oregon -3||Top||56-60||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
20* Colorado/Oregon ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -3
The Oregon Ducks are now finding their rhythm following a couple COVID pauses. They only played one game in four weeks from January 10th through February 3rd. But now they have played four games since returning from their latest break.
After getting upset by Washington State, the Ducks have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS since with their only non-cover coming in a 12-point win over Washington as 12.5-point favorites. They then went on the road and beat Arizona State 75-64 as a 2-point favorite and Arizona 63-61 as a 1.5-point dog. Now they want revenge from a 72-79 road loss at Colorado in their first meeting this season.
I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Oregon is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Colorado. The Buffaloes are coming off a bad 62-71 road loss at California as a 9-point favorite, and they have been awful on the road throughout the years.
Indeed, the Buffaloes are 17-43 ATS in their last 60 road games. Colorado is 13-39 ATS in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The home team is a ridiculous 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Ducks are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Oregon Thursday.
|02-18-21||Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 136.5||64-71||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Michigan UNDER 136.5
Two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten square off Thursday when the Rutgers Scarlet Knights visit the Michigan Wolverines. I can't believe they have set this total as high as they have, and there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.
Rutgers gives up just 41.7% shooting on the season and plays at a slow pace. The Scarlet Knights have been even better defensively of late, giving up 58.8 PPG and 37.5% shooting in their last five games. Michigan gives up 37.5% shooting on the season and has allowed 63 or fewer points in five of their last six games coming in.
Five of the last six meetings in this series would have gone UNDER 136.5 points. They have combined for 112, 132, 142, 109, 132 and 125 points in their last six meetings, respectively. That's an average of just 125.3 combined points per game, giving us over 11 points of value with this 136.5-point total.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Rutgers' last five games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Wolverines' last six games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Michigan's last five games following a win. Rutgers is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after allowing 50 points or less. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|02-18-21||Raptors v. Bucks -6.5||110-96||Loss||-105||11 h 56 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -6.5
It's safe to say the Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are riding a season-high four-game losing streak coming in. And their last loss came to Toronto, the team they will be facing tonight, so they will also be motivated for revenge. Look for the Bucks to put their best foot forward tonight to get the win and cover because of it.
The Bucks are 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS at home this season and winning by 11.5 points per game. Milwaukee is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. The Raptors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Bet the Bucks Thursday.
|02-18-21||Iowa v. Wisconsin||Top||77-62||Loss||-109||10 h 17 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK
Wisconsin is coming off a bad 59-67 home loss to Michigan in which they blew a double-digit first half lead. It's now a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers, who have been a very resilient team all season. Indeed, Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU in its six games following a loss this season. They haven't lost two in a row all year.
It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Iowa coming off its best performance of the season in a 30-point win over Michigan State. That followed up a 13-point win over Rutgers. Now the Hawkeyes are overvalued here as this line is a pick 'em on the road at Wisconsin. Keep in mind Iowa had gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its previous five games prior to beating Michigan State and Rutgers.
Wisconsin is 27-11 SU in its last 38 meetings with Iowa, including 13-3 SU in its last 16 home meetings. Iowa is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. The Badgers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a conference loss. The Badgers are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss overall. Bet Wisconsin Thursday.
|02-17-21||Missouri State v. Southern Illinois +6||68-53||Loss||-109||11 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +6
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri State. The Bears are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Two of those wins came against a Bradley team that was missing four of its best players due to suspension. Two of those wins came against Illinois State, the worst team in the MVC.
And the other win came 65-53 at home over this same Southern Illinois team on February 10th. Now the Salukis will be the team out for revenge exactly one week later. And Southern Illinois gets them at home this time around. They've barely adjusted the line for home-court advantage as Missouri State was a 6.5-point home favorite and now they are a 6-point road favorite.
Southern Illinois is 7-3 SU at home this season. The Salukis have been great in these revenge spots, too. They lost to Illinois State by 25 and came back and beat them by 10 in the rematch. They lost to Northern Iowa by 12 and came back and beat them by 3 in the rematch. And they lost by 8 at Bradley and came back and beat them by 1 in the rematch in the last three such situations.
Southern Illinois is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Missouri State. The Salukis are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a home game. Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off a win by 10 points or more. The Salukis are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games overall. Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.
|02-17-21||Blazers v. Pelicans -3||Top||126-124||Loss||-105||11 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3
Both the New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after wins last night. But the situation is a much more favorable one for the Pelicans given the circumstances, and thus they should have no problem covering this 3-point spread at home.
It's a good 'buy low' time for the Pelicans as they had lost three straight road games prior to beating Memphis 144-113 on the road last night. That blowout win allowed the Pelicans to rest their starters in the 4th quarter and no one player played more than 31 minutes for them. They are a fully healthy, deep team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most.
It's a good 'sell high' opportunity on the Blazers. They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall against a weak schedule. But all these injuries are going to catch up with them eventually, and I expect that to be tonight. The Blazers will be without CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Harry Giles and could be without Rodney Hood again.
This is an awful situation for the Blazers, who will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 3rd straight road game and their 5th game in 7 days. All five starters played more than 30 minutes last night for the Blazers as they were in a war with the Thunder, needing a late surge to pull away for a 115-104 victory. They clearly won't have much left in the tank tonight.
The Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with wins over Phoenix, Memphis and Houston by a combined 60 points, or by an average of 20 points per game. New Orleans is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Portland, winning those four games by an average of 13.3 points per game. The Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on zero rest. Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.
|02-17-21||Valparaiso +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||52-54||Win||100||27 h 1 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +20.5
Valparaiso's 8-14 record has them undervalued right now. They were an awful team in the first half of the season. But they have been way more competitive of late. The Crusaders are 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They beat Drake outright by 17 as 13-point dogs and also lost to Drake in OT as 12.5-point dogs. If they can hang with Drake, they can certainly hang with Loyola-Chicago.
I've been fading the Ramblers with a lot of success lately. They were overvalued after a stretch in which they went 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS to open conference play. They have since gone just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. I faded them in both matchups with Evansville as they were 18 and 18.5-point favorites in those two games and failed to cover either. Valpo is on Evansville's level and should not be catching 20.5 points.
Loyola-Chicago is coming off its two biggest games of the season in a double-header with Drake, their only contender to win the Missouri Valley. I think this is now a flat spot for the Ramblers after splitting those two games with Drake. And consider that Valpo was an 11-point underdog in its first meeting with Loyola-Chicago this season. Now the Crusaders as 20.5-point dogs in the rematch, a 9.5-point adjustment which is simply too much.
The road team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Valparaiso is 42-15 ATS in its last 57 games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Crusaders are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 games when revenging a home loss. Valparaiso is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after playing its last two games on the road. Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.
|02-17-21||South Florida v. UCF -2.5||65-81||Win||100||26 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5
The UCF Knights are 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Their two losses both came by a single point in games that they covered. They lost 60-61 to Wichita State, which might be the second-best team in the AAC behind Houston. They also lost 68-69 at Cincinnati.
The Knights upset Tulsa 65-58 as 5-point road underdogs. They also barely failed to cover in a 4-point win over Tulane as 4.5-point home favorites. And now UCF wants revenge from a 61-68 road loss at South Florida back on January 2nd.
The Bulls had to take a month off due to COVID and have come back rusty. They have played two games since the month layoff. They lost by 17 at home to Houston. Then they were upset by Tulane as 5-point home favorites. That gives these teams in recent common opponent in Tulane in which UCF just beat.
The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. UCF is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing its 3rd game in 7 days. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take UCF Wednesday.
|02-17-21||Nebraska +11 v. Maryland||71-79||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +11
Nebraska was in a clear letdown spot yesterday after ending a long losing streak in Big Ten play with a 62-61 win at Penn State as 11-point underdogs. That followed up a 72-77 (OT) home loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs.
So the Huskers were playing their best basketball of the season coming into that game against Maryland yesterday. They promptly fell flat and lost 50-64 as 10.5-point dogs. Now they come back as 11-point dogs in the rematch and should be much more focused and motivated for revenge.
The Terrapins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Maryland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Terrapins are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Maryland is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season. Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.
|02-16-21||Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5||144-113||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Grizzlies TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 231.5
The OVER is 18-3 in Pelicans last 21 games overall. They have combined for 231 or more points in four straight games coming in. And with a total of 231.5 here, the value is still with the OVER involving a Pelicans team that has come to life offensively but cannot get any stops defensively.
The Grizzlies have been an OVER team as well since getting JA Morant back healthy. Indeed, the Grizzlies are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall. They have combined for 234 or more points with their opponents in seven of their last nine games overall.
The OVER is 10-1 in Pelicans last 11 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 8-0 in Grizzlies last eight games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is 9-1 OVER vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season. New Orleans is 13-1 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|02-16-21||Nuggets v. Celtics -2.5||Top||99-112||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -2.5
This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics. They have gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with upset losses to the Pistons and Wizards. I have no doubt we will get a huge effort out of the Celtics tonight as they get back on track.
It's also the perfect spot to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three straight coming in, including their upset home win over the Lakers on Sunday. But Anthony Davis got hurt in that game and the Lakers weren't the same after. That makes this a letdown spot for the Nuggets tonight off that win over the defending champs.
The injury situation really favors the Celtics here. While they are basically fully healthy with the exception of Marcus Smart, the Nuggets will be without several key players tonight. Denver will be without Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Greg Whittington and PJ Dozier. They could also be without Monte Morris, who is questionable.
Denver is 8-23 ATS in its last 31 road games after a win by 10 points or more. Boston is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after failing to cover three of its last four coming in. The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by more than 10 points. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|02-16-21||Michigan State +6 v. Purdue||65-75||Loss||-109||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +6
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan State Spartans tonight. They have gone just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. We are getting the Spartans at the bottom of the barrel tonight in terms of line value because of it.
Michigan State will be motivated following a 30-point loss to Iowa. They will also be motivated for revenge from a 54-55 home loss to Purdue as 6-point home favorites on January 8th. They blew a 31-16 halftime lead in that game, and they have not forgotten.
Now the Spartans come back as 6-point underdogs in the rematch. That's a full 12-point adjustment and it's simply too much. That adjustment alone should show you that there's clearly value on the Spartans tonight in the rematch as you almost never see that big of an adjustment in a head-to-head series. Especially when home-court advantage isn't worth that much this year.
Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog. Purdue is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Boilermakers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.
|02-15-21||Cavs v. Warriors OVER 226.5||98-129||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cavs/Warriors OVER 226.5
The Golden State Warriors have been forced to play small ball of late due to injuries to each of their top two centers in James Wiseman and Kevon Looney. The result has been a lot more high-scoring games, and I think there's value with this OVER 226.5 tonight against the Cavaliers because of it.
Three of Golden State's last six games have seen 251 or more combined points without overtime. They combined for 263 and 266 points in their two meetings with Dallas recently. And last time out they combined for 251 points with the Nets.
The Cavaliers are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall. They have combined for 232, 228, 239 and 239 points in their last four games. All four of those would have gone OVER this 226.5-point total.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 243, 234 and 234 points. The OVER is 6-1 in Warriors lsat seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|02-15-21||Washington +8 v. Washington State||Top||65-63||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Washington/Washington State Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +8
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Washington off five straight losses. But the Huskies haven't quit on their season as they only lost 61-64 to UCLA as 9.5-point underdogs over the weekend. And they'll certainly get up for their biggest rivals in Washington State tonight.
That's especially the case with the Huskies wanting revenge from a 62-77 home loss to Washington State as 1.5-point favorites on January 31st. Now the Huskies come back as 8-point road dogs just two weeks later, which is a 9.5-point adjustment in the line. There's clearly value in the Huskies in the rematch.
I can see Washington State taking Washington lightly after already beating them by 15. And it's kind of a flat spot for them anyway after two straight games against ranked opponents in UCLA and USC. Plus, their best player in Isaac Bonton (18.4 PPG) suffered an ankle injury against USC over the weekend, and even though he is expected to play tonight he won't be 100%.
The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Washington Monday.
|02-15-21||Bulls v. Pacers OVER 226||Top||120-112||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pacers OVER 226
The Bulls are a good OVER team of late as they have gone OVER the total in their last two games with 245 combined points with the Pelicans and 231 with the Clippers. They are missing some guys that are key defenders, but they haven't dropped off offensively.
The Pacers are shooting a lot more 3-pointers this year and are definitely an OVER team themselves. They are coming off a 125-113 win in Atlanta for 238 combined points. And I think this 226-point total is simply too low tonight.
Indiana beat Chicago 125-106 for 231 combined points in their first and only meeting this season. And keep in mind the Bulls shot just 37.4% from the field in that contest. The Pacers should get what they want offensively tonight, and the Bulls aren't likely to shoot that poorly again. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Chicago is a perfect 8-0 OVER when revenging a home loss this season. Indiana is 16-3 OVER in its last 19 games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game. The OVER is 5-1 in Bulls last six games playing on two days' rest. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|02-14-21||Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 229.5||124-110||Win||100||13 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Grizzlies/Kings OVER 229.5
The Sacramento Kings have scored 111 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall. But they have also allowed 105 or more points in 18 of their last 19 games. The Kings are built for shootouts, and this 229.5-point total is too low.
The Grizzlies have allowed 114 points or more in six straight games coming in. The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall as a result. JA Morant and company will score at will on a Sacramento defense that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season.
The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 234, 251 and 254 points in the three OVERS. The OVER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six road games. The OVER is 7-2 in Kings last nine home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|02-14-21||Blazers v. Mavs OVER 236||Top||121-118||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 236
Dallas OVERS are the gifts that keep on giving, and we'll continue to back them until the books set them high enough. This 236-point total is not high enough Sunday to scare as away when you look at recent performances in Mavericks game.
The OVER is 6-0 in Dallas' last six games overall. They have combined for 238, 263, 266, 249, 235 and 273 points in those six games with none of them going to overtime. That's an average of 254 combined points per game, which is still 18 points higher than this 236-point total.
The Mavericks are becoming one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, but they still play little defense. The Blazers also like to play at a fast pace and play little defense. The OVER is 5-1 in Blazers last six games overall with combined scores of 240 or higher in four of their last five. None of those games went to OT, either.
The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games as underdogs. The OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games as a favorite. The OVER is 41-20 in Mavericks last 61 home games. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series with combined scores of 265, 258, 232, 240 and 244 points. None of those went to OT, either. That's an average of 247.8 combined points per game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.