20* ALDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.19 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 and 20 runs in Game 2.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 18 of their last 24 meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left and gusts of up to 25 MPH.

Shane Bieber has lost his fastball and is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three road starts.  Bieber is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA in seven career starts against the Yankees, allowing 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 41 innings.

Carlos Rodon does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last five starts against them while allowing 18 earned runs and 44 base runners in 24 1/3 innings.  Both bullpens leave a lot to be desired, especially New York's.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* ALDS GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -126

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  Now I think the Mariners take control of this series with a Game 3 win in Detroit.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they went 0-7 in their final seven home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen.  They should be bigger favorites tonight.

Logan Gilbert is 6-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 173 K's and only 31 walks in 131 innings.  Gilbert is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career road starts at Detroit, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 innings.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings with 19 K's in two starts against the Tigers in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is washed up, going 8-15 with a 4.56 ERA in 32 starts this season.  He has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in four career starts against the Mariners, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 30 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners in Game 3 Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 44.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a dangerous offense moving forward.  They just got Xavier Worthy back from injury last week, and promptly put up 37 points on the Ravens.  Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD passes, Worth had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 carries for 38 yards, and this looked like one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Worthy just opens things up for everyone else.  Defenses have to account for his speed and also his ability to run the football.  Pretty soon the Chiefs will get Rashee Rice back from suspension and they will be virtually unstoppable on offense.

The Jaguars are a much more potent offense this season under head coach Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career year in Tampa Bay last season as their offensive coordinator.  Now he is working wonders on Trevor Lawrence, who would have even bigger numbers this season if his receivers didn't drop more passes than any other team in the league thus far.

Even with those drops, the Jaguars rank 16th in scoring at 24.0 points per game and 10th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game.  Lawrence is playing behind one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL, one that is paving the way for the 4th-most rushing yards per game (144) and 5.0 yards per carry behind the one-two punch of Etienne and Tuten.  The Jaguars put up 26 points on the 49ers last week, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Jaguars have solid defensive numbers this season, but it is largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  They have faced the Panthers, the Bengals with Jake Browning, the Texans and the 49ers with all their injuries on offense.  This is a huge step up in class for their defense, and I expect them to get exposed for the mediocre unit that they really are Monday night against Worthy, Mahomes and this now potent KC offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dodgers/Phillies TBS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.79 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy in this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  Snell is 0-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four road starts.  He is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies as well.

Jesus Luzardo is one of the most overrated starters in baseball, and the Dodgers should get to him early and often.  Luzardo is 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 4.16 ERA in 16 home starts.  He has benefited from tremendous run support this season, and that will likely be the case again today.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Patriots/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +8

The New England Patriots are buying into Mike Vrabel and he is getting the most out of them already in his first season on the job.  I still believe he's one of the best head coaches in the NFL in terms of getting the most out of his players.  And now they have a big opportunity to show the world on the national stage on NBC's Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to take full advantage.

The Patriots have great numbers averaging 25.5 points per game on offense and allowing 20.3 points per game on defense.  They have also been great on special teams, which is a staple of Vrabel-coached teams and a hidden advantage they have.  Drake Maye has taken that leap in Year 2, completing 74% of his passes for 988 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

The Buffalo Bills are 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start.  They have been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And last week they were life and death with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

While the Patriots are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL likely not being without a single starter this week, the Bills are banged up.  They have five defensive linemen who are out or questionable and two starting LB's questionable on defense.  RT Spencer Brown is questionable for this one as well.  The Bills are outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play, but they have played the league's easiest schedule to this point, too.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bills pulling the outright upset at home last year, with their three losses coming by 3, 6 and 4 points.  This line should be less than a TD, so getting +8 with New England is a great value as I expect it to be decided by a single score either way.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Tigers/Mariners FS1 No-Brainer on Seattle +120

I love getting the Seattle Mariners as home underdogs in this must-win spot after losing Game 1 yesterday.  This is another classic case of Tarik Skubal getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Mariners have the much better lineup and better bullpen that can overcome Skubal in Game 2.

I question how much Skubal has left in the tank after going 107 pitches against the Guardians in Game 1 last series.  Skubal has not enjoyed facing the Mariners this season, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them for a 5.90 ERA.

I like that the Mariners are going with Luis Castillo in Game 2 tonight.  He has been much better at home than on the road, going 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Castillo is in a real groove to close out the season going 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  He has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five career home starts against Detroit.  Bet the Mariners in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Yankees/Blue Jays FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.17 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.96 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Rookie Trey Yesavage will be making just his 4th career start in this huge spot and I don't trust him to handle it very well, especially up against this potent New York lineup.  His first three starts came against the Rays (twice) and Royals, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a huge step up in class for him today.

The Yankees really have extended Max Fried a lot here down the stretch throwing at least 100 pitches in five of his last six starts.  He's not used to this kind of workload, and I expect him to wear down as the playoffs progress.  Fried does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them since July 1st for a 5.40 ERA.

The OVER is 12-1-1 in the last 14 meetings between the Blue Jays and Yankees in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 14 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks ML -140

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Bucs are 3-1 this season, but these 3-1 starts are not created equal.  The Seahawks have been dominant in their three wins, and they could be 4-0 but lost a coin flip game to the 49ers in Week 1.  The Bucs could easily be 0-4 as their three wins all came on game-winning drives from Baker Mayfield in the final seconds.

While the Seahawks are outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game averaging 27.8 points per game on offense and allowing 16.8 points per game on defense, the Bucs are dead even in scoring margin.  Their three wins came by a combined 6 points, and their lone loss came by 6 points at home to the Eagles last week.

The Seahawks have the rest advantage after beating the Cardinals on the road last Thursday, and they are certainly the much healthier team heading into this one.  And it's the poor health of the Bucs that is is the biggest reason I am fading them this week.

The Bucs will be without six starters this week in WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch, CB Jamel Dean and DE Caljah Kancey.  Baker Mayfield continues to play through injury as his offensive line just can't protect him, and he's taking more hits than ever trying to extend plays with his legs.  The Bucs are also without key depth pieces in WR Jalen McMillan, CB Benjamin Morrison and SS Christian Izien.  They are without five guys in all in the secondary.

The Seahawks are without three starters on defense, but they are fully healthy on offense, and Sam Darnold is proving that his run with the Minnesota Vikings last year was no fluke.  I trust Darnold and this offense to be able to move the ball through the air with ease against this soft Tampa Bay secondary, and for this Seattle defense that has shown it has lots of depth and will make life tough on Mayfield.  

Seattle blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL, consistently getting a pass rush with 4 guys and playing coverage behind it.  Mayfield is better against man-to-man schemes where he can use his legs.  Seattle will have a spy on him running at all times after watching film, and I expect a few interceptions from Mayfield trying to fit balls into tight windows in the zone.  He is due some turnovers as he has the most turnover-worthy plays of any QB in the NFL to this point.

The furthest flight in the NFL is from Tampa Bay to Seattle, and vice versa.  That makes this a tough road trip for the Bucs with the long travel.  Seattle still has one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL, especially when they are good, which is the case this season as they will be going for first place in the NFC West with a win here.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cowboys/Jets OVER 46

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL and the 2nd-best offense in the NFL statistically.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game, 5th in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 404.2 yards per game.

The Jets also have a terrible defense ranking 30th allowing 30.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses should have their way in this one, and this total of 46 is too low for a game involving the Jets and Cowboys.  The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in New York Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Panthers OVER 45

The Dolphins and Panthers are both dead nuts OVER teams with awful defenses and respectable offenses.  This total of 45 has been set too low, especially with the forecast looking perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation in Carolina Sunday.

The Dolphins rank 26th in scoring defense allowing 29.5 points per game, 25th in total defense allowing 378.8 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.6 yards per play.  They remain without CB Storm Duck, and not having him is a big loss going up against one of the best rookie receivers in the NFL in Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan.

Carolina ranks 19th in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points per game, 19th in total defense at 327.5 yards per game and 25th at 5.9 yards per play.  They have even benefited from a fluky shutout win over the Falcons to pad those stats, plus the fact that they have been getting blown out in their other three games so opposing offenses have been very vanilla late in games against them protecting big leads.

This figures to be a competitive back and forth game with neither offense taking their foot off the gas.  Miami is currently a 1-point favorite over Carolina.  Injuries to this Carolina defense are a big reason Miami is favored on the road.  The Panthers will be without DE Tershawn Wharton and NB Chau Smith-Wade, plus LB D.J. Wonnum, DE LaBryan Ray and NT Came Jackson are all questionable.

I know the Dolphins will be without Tyreek Hill, but they just got TE Darren Waller into the lineup for the first time against the Jets last week and he made an immediate impact with two TD receptions from Tua.  Their chemistry will only keep getting better moving forward, and this offense still has plenty of playmakers to help make up for the loss of Hill.  The Dolphins have scored 27, 21 and 27 points in their last three games and should get in that ball park this week.

The Panthers have scored 22 and 30 points in two of their last three games and should be able to get in that ball park in this one as well.  I like the fact that both McMillan and Xavier Legette are healthy, which are Bryce Young's two best weapons.  And this will be the weakest defense that Young has faced yet this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They are 4-0 in one score games.  They beat Dallas by 4 at home, Kansas City by 3 on the road, the Rams by 7 at home only after blowing a FG and returning it for a TD on the final play with a 1-point lead, and beat the banged up Bucs by 6 on the road last week.

The Eagles have the numbers of a team that should be 1-3 and not one that is 4-0.  They average 4.3 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  I realize the tush push hurts the offensive YPP, but this is still a bad offense with little to no passing game averaging 138 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.

The Broncos are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 3-1 or better.  They average 354.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense, and allow 285.3 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game and 0.7 per play.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away AJ Brown.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Eagles after four straight huge games.  They beat their division rival Cowboys in Week 1, had their Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs in Week 2, had their NFC playoffs rematch with the Rams in Week 3, and last week were playing with double-revenge against the Bucs and got their revenge.  They won't be as motivated to beat the Broncos as they were those four teams, and they are 'fat and happy' after this 4-0 start.  The Broncos are motivated to beat the defending champs and it will show on the field.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -130

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 33.2 points per game and 30th in total defense at 406.8 yards per game.  And it's going to be no surprise to see the Houston Texans finally get their offense going this week just like the Chiefs did last week.

The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Marlon Humphrey, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, plus S Kyle Hamilton (groin) and LB Odafe Oweh (eye) are both questionable.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense last week.

The Texans are coming off their best offensive output of the season scoring 26 points on what is a very good Tennessee Titans defense.  They had 353 total yards with a nice mix of run and pass, rushing for 129 yards and throwing for 224.  They found a RB with some explosiveness in Woody Marks, who had 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while also catching 4 balls for 50 yards and a score.  They have one of the deepest WR rooms in the league, and CJ Stroud should keep getting more and more comfortable with these new guys this week.

Now the Ravens are without QB Lamar Jackson who is worth as much to the point spread as any QB in the NFL.  The Ravens are off to a 1-3 start even with a healthy Jackson, and it's because he has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts due to an awful defense.  I like Cooper Rush as a backup, but it's a clear downgrade and the Ravens will be much easier to defend not having to worry about Lamar's dual-threat ability.

The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring defense allowing 12.8 points per game, 6th in total defense allowing 280.5 yards per game and 7th at 4.9 yards per play.  This line has moved a lot, but it hasn't moved enough.  Houston is favored for good reason.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets could easily be 2-2 instead of 0-4.  But that 0-4 record has them undervalued as home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.  The Jets had a chance to win three of the four games they played this season with the exception of their 30-10 loss to the Bills in which they lost QB Justin Fields to a concussion in the 1H and never recovered.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards in their 34-32 loss in Week 1.  The Bucs needed a game-winning FG drive to beat them 29-27 at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB.  Fields returned last week in a 27-21 loss at Miami in which the Jets outgained the Dolphins 404 to 300, or by 104 total yards.  But they were -3 in turnovers and had 13 penalties, yet still had a chance to win late.  These are all errors that are easily correctable, and I expect a much more disciplined effort from the Jets this week as they are highly motivated for that first victory.

The Cowboys are coming off their 'Super Bowl' in a 40-40 tie with the Packers in the Micah Parsons revenge game.  They had to go an extra 10 minutes in OT and could still be feeling the after-affects of that tie.  They are certainly hurting in the injury department coming out of that game, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm fading the Cowboys here.

The Cowboys will be without WR CeeDee Lamb, LT Tyler Guyton, RG Tyler Booker, C Cooper Beebee and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  LG Tyler Smith is questionable, so they will be without at least three starters on the offensive line and two of their biggest playmakers.  They will also be without FS Malik Hooker who landed on IR after leaving that Packers game, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. is questionable.  What a mess.

The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  They legitimately have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Jets have a competent defense allowing 330.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  And Justin Fields is back and healthy and getting more comfortable in this new offense each week.  He and Breece Hall should have a field day on the ground against this Dallas defense.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* Duke/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Duke -2.5

The Duke Blue Devils have played a brutal schedule to this point that has them undervalued.  They have two losses already but have played the 22nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And both losses were misleading especially their loss to Illinois.  They also lost to Tulane on the road.  They outgained by Illinois and Tulane.

The Blue Devils have since bounced back with two impressive ACC wins beating NC State 45-33 as 3-point home favorites and crushing Syracuse 38-3 as 4-point road favorites.  They have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play.

California is overvalued after a 4-1 start against a much softer schedule that ranks as the 62nd-toughest.  The Golden Bears have the numbers of a .500 team averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play.

The four wins have come against Oregon State, Texas Southern, Minnesota and Boston College.  They got to play Minnesota without its best player, Oregon State is still winless on the season, and Boston College also lost to Stanford.

California is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Golden Bears will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after back-to-back road games at San Diego State and at Boston College.  They lost 34-0 at San Diego State, and that loss isn't aging very well.  Then they had to travel clear across the country to Boston College last week, before flying back across the country to return home for this game.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for Duke, which will test its tired legs playing at the 21st-fastest tempo in the country.

Duke has a chance to open 3-0 in ACC play and will be tied for first in the conference with a win Saturday night.  They have a bye on deck next week, so they will be fully focused looking to go into their bye perfect in the conference.  The Blue Devils are the better team and this is a short number for them to be laying Saturday night.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* Tulsa/Memphis ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 56.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22 seconds.  They have a poor defense, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout against an elite Memphis offense that is going to be able to name its number here Saturday.

The Tigers rank 16th in scoring at 39.6 points per game.  They are coming off consecutive shootout wins 32-31 over Arkansas for 63 combined points and 55-26 over FAU for 81 combined points.  FAU also plays at a similarly fast tempo as Tulsa.

Against the two offenses Tulsa faced with pulse, they allowed 42 points and 465 total yards to Navy and 31 points and 438 total yards to Tulane.  Memphis is averaging 247.2 rushing yards per game and 6.0 per carry, and should run wild on a Tulsa defense allowing 179.2 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 60 or more combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain in Memphis tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on Florida State +5

The Miami Hurricanes are overvalued after playing a home-heavy schedule and catching some teams in some bad spots for them.  They caught Notre Dame in the opener with a freshman QB making his first start and escaped with a 27-24 victory.  That win over Notre Dame hasn't aged very well.

After beating Bethune-Cookman but not covering, the Hurricanes caught South Florida off back-to-back upset wins over Boise State and Florida playing a 3rd straight massive game and tired.  They caught Florida off a deflating loss to LSU where they committed five turnovers and gave the game away in a 20-10 loss the previous week.

After playing four straight games at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, now the Hurricanes finally hit the road for the first time in what will be a very hostile atmosphere Saturday night in Tallahassee.  They must take on a focused, pissed off Seminoles team coming off an upset loss at Virginia last Friday night in OT.  They got a tough whistle in that game and lost despite outgaining the Cavaliers and racking up 516 total yards in defeat.

Gus Malzahn has this Florida State offense humming.  The Seminoles rank 1st in the country averaging 600 yards per game, 2nd averaging 8.2 yards per play and 1st scoring 53.0 points per game.  They have the better offense, and I think this Miami offense hasn't been tested by a very good defense yet even though Florida did hold them to 26 points.  

The Seminoles have a solid defense as well ranking 28th allowing 296.0 yards per game and 26th at 4.6 yards per play.  This despite facing two of the best offenses in the country in Alabama and Virginia.  And we saw them shut down Alabama 31-17 at home in their opener, a win that has aged very well as the Crimson Tide have gone on to crush everyone while also upsetting Georgia on the road.  

This will be the best home atmopshere for a FSU game since they went unbeaten in the regular season two years ago and were left out of the playoff.  With no margin for error after the loss to Virginia, we get a fully focused Seminoles team this week.  Plus, Miami is fat and happy coming off a bye week, and they didn't need a bye week because they were rolling.  Some bye weeks are better than others.  Carson Beck had a 3-to-7 TD/INT ratio and his completion percentage dropped by 10% on the road while at Georgia last year.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.9 seconds.  They are scoring 38.6 points per game this season and are coming off a 41-34 (OT) loss to Tennessee last week in a shootout that saw 68 combined points at the end of regulation.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses up to that point, the Bulldogs were finally exposed by Tennessee's high-octane offense last week.  Now they will have to face another elite offense in Texas A&M, which has scored 41 or more points in three of its four games this season including a 41-40 shootout win at Notre Dame.

The Aggies are averaging 35.8 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  QB Marcel Reed is one of the best in the country, and he has elite playmakers surrounding him in WR Mario Craver (24 receptions, 477 yards, 4 TD) and Kevin Conception (20, 340, 3 TD).  

The Aggies will be able to name their number, and I expect the Bulldogs to be able to keep up in a shootout with their hurry-up offense.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings finishing with 58, 61 and 66 combined points in the last three.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Rice OVER 53.5

The FAU Owls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 19.6 seconds.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Memphis, 66 with FIU and 70 with Florida A&M.  The OVER is 9-2 in FAU's last 11 games dating back to last season with 62 or more combined points in all nine overs.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving Florida Atlantic.

This is a poor FAU defense that will give up a big number to Rice.  The Owls are a run-heavy team rushing for 221 yards per game.  They will get what they want on the ground against a FAU defense that is allowing 174.3 rushing yards per game this season.

Rice has faced a terrible schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced anything like the high-octane FAU passing attack they will be up against this weekend.  They have played Louisiana, Houston, Prairie View A&M, Charlotte and Navy.  Most of those teams play slow, and only Navy has a decent offense of the bunch.  None are pass-happy like FAU, which is averaging 325.5 passing yards per game and 52 pass attempts per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Phillies TBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

This total of 7 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy heading into this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep into this game, so that bullpen will be exposed from the jump.

Cristopher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his two starts against the Dodgers this season, which both saw 15 combined runs and sailed over the total.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.93 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Luis Gil is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five road starts this season.  Gil is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Kevin Gausman is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 home starts this season.  Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his last 12 starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan/Buffalo OVER 54

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 25 seconds, which exposes their defense even more.  The Eagles rank 126th allowing 36.6 points per game, 132nd allowing 492.8 yards per game and 134th allowing 7.3 yards per play.

What makes those numbers even worse is the fact that they have played some terrible offenses in their last four games in Long Island, Kentucky, Louisiana and Central Michigan.  Now they have to face a Buffalo offense that also likes to play with pace ranking 47th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  And it's a Buffalo offense that gets back starting QB Ta'Quan Roberson, who means everything to this Buffalo offense as one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.

Buffalo has faced some poor offenses as well in Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, Kent State, Troy and UConn thus far.  I think this Eastern Michigan offense will give them some problems this week and has the ability to keep up in a shootout.  The Eagles are averaging 24.0 points per game, 374 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  QB Noah Kim has been solid, completing 63.4% of his passes for 1,168 yards while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Buffalo and Eastern Michigan with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 54 is too low for a game involving Eastern Michigan, and given the head-to-head history with the high-scoring nature of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Virginia/Louisville OVER 61

Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in four straight games coming in.  Louisville is 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points twice.

Virginia is averaging 45.6 points per game, 543 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris has been awesome, completing 71.6% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 10 TD passes while also rushing for 4 scores on the ground.

Jeff Brohm has this Louisville offense humming again this season.  The Cardinals are scoring 38.3 points per game and averaging 6.1 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses that has included James Madison and Pitt.  USC transfer Miller Moss is completing 65.6% of his passes and averaging 7.9 per attempt.

Virginia is coming off a 46-38 (OT) shootout against Florida State that saw 76 combined points at the end of regulation.  This game feels like a similar shootout is coming.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday in Louisville with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +6.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  That includes their 27-10 win at Wisconsin last time out, which came just before their bye week.  Now they have had two full weeks to prepare for Washington and are sitting on a big effort here to try and remain unbeaten.

This is a terrible spot for Washington.  Two weeks ago they played their biggest rivals in Washington State in the Apple Cup.  Then last week they hosted the No. 1 team in the country in Ohio State.  They came up short in a 24-6 defeat while managing just 234 total yards against the Buckeyes.

I don't think the Huskies will be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Maryland this week.  They don't have much time to recover as they have to travel clear across the country to face the Terrapins.  This is about as long of a trip as you can get for a Big Ten team.  The Huskies have cluster injuries on defense as well that aren't being factored into the line enough.  They are down three starters since the start of the season.

Now the Huskies will have to try and tame 5-star freshman QB Malik Washington.  He has thrown for 1,038 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores.  Many believe he will prove to be one of the best QB's in the country soon, and he could get a bag anywhere he wanted to go after this season because of his talents.  The Terrapins are loaded with receiver talent as a trio of seniors in Farooq, Smith Jr. and Knotts all have between 14 and 17 receptions this season as Washington has spread the ball around nicely.

While Washington and the offense get the hype, it's the defense that has been most impressive.  The Terrapins are only allowing 10.8 points per game and 4.1 yards per play, ranking 7th and 11th in the country, respectively.  I'll gladly take the points on the Terrapins in this very favorable spot off a bye against this tired Huskies team that won't be as motivated to win this game as they were to beat Washington State and Ohio State the last two weeks.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +8

The UConn Huskies are a tired team and ripe for the picking this week.  The Huskies will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after four straight one-score games against Syracuse, Delaware, Ball State and Buffalo.  They are running on fumes now, and they should not be favored by more than a TD against the Florida International Panthers this week.

That's especially the case when you consider FIU is coming off a bye week and has had two full weeks to prepare for UConn.  The Panthers have a first-year head coach in Willie Simmons, and first-year head coaches benefit more from bye weeks than the rest of the coaches.  Look for the Panthers to have his systems down now and to be as sharp as they've been all season this week.

FIU is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After opening with a 42-9 win over Bethune-Cookman as 26.5-point favorites, the Panthers were game in a 34-0 loss at Penn State as 42-point dogs as the cover was never in question.  Then they beat rival Florida Atlantic 38-28 at home as 1.5-point favorites, before a misleading 38-16 loss to Delaware as 4.5-point favorites.  The Panthers actually outgained the Blue Hens in that loss.  Keep in mind Delaware also upset UConn on the road earlier this season.

It's a bad look for UConn being in one-score games with both Ball State and Buffalo since that loss to Delaware.  The Huskies were 21-point favorites against Ball State and only won by 6 and were actually outgained by the Cardinals.  They were also outgained by Buffalo in a 3-point win, and that's a Buffalo team that was playing with a backup QB.  I'm not even sure UConn is a better team than FIU at this point.  Given the horrific spot for the Huskies and the great one for the Panthers, this number is a few notches too high at minimum.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Temple OVER 56.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  You could tell that was going to be the case coming into the season with 9 starters back on offense but only 2 starters back on defense.  That has played out thus far.

UTSA boasts an offense that is putting up 31.3 points per game, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.3 points per game, 408 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The OVER 3-1 in all UTSA games this season combining for 66 points with Texas A&M, 79 with Texas State and 68 with Incarnate Word.

Temple is 3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Owls combined for 52 points with UMass, 62 with Howard and 69 with Georgia Tech in their three games that went over the total.  I like QB Evan Simon, who has a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio despite playing Oklahoma and Georgia Tech already and a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  The Owls have a lot more talent on offense than they do on defense, as evidenced by giving up 42 to Oklahoma and 45 to Georgia Tech.

Both meetings between Temple and UTSA over the last two seasons sailed over the total with a 51-27 win by UTSA in 2024 and 78 combined points with a 55.5-point total, and a 49-34 win by the Roadrunners in 2023 and 83 combined points with a 56-point total.  The books have made the mistake of setting this total too low once again in 2025.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Cincinnati OVER 53.5

Cincinnati is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Bearcats also rank 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds, so they like to play fast.  They will control the tempo playing at home Saturday against Iowa State.

Cincinnati ranks 17th scoring 39.5 points per game, 17th averaging 479.5 yards per game and 3rd averaging 8.1 yards per play on offense.  This despite playing a pretty difficult schedule that has included Nebraska and Kansas.  The Bearcats are coming off a 37-34 shootout win over Kansas.  They had 603 total yards while allowing 597 total yards in an absolute shootout.

Iowa State just put up 39 points on Arizona last week stepping back into Big 12 play.  The Cyclones have a dynamic offense with a great QB in Rocco Becht and a plethora of playmakers both at the WR and TE positions.  In fact, they may have the best TE room in the country.  And ECU transfer WR Chase Sowell had his breakout game last week, catching 4 balls for 146 yards.  He's finally healthy and at full strength now and will be a problem for opposing defenses moving forward.

Iowa State has benefited from a weak schedule of opposing offenses in Kansas State, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State and Arizona.  The Cyclones take a big step up in class trying to tame QB Brendan Sorsby and this Cincinnati offense.  Sorsby is completing 69.2% of his passes with 10 TD, while also rushing for 227 yards and 4 scores.  He should have a field day against an Iowa State defense that will be without its top to cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper, who both suffered season-ending injuries.  

Becht and company are going to be forced to keep up and shootout, and I think they'll be up to the task in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in Cincinnati Saturday.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +15

I love the spot for Ball State Saturday.  They have a first-year head coach and are coming off a bye week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks because they're implementing new systems, and players need that extra time to figure it out.  And I've been very impressed with the improvement of the Cardinals in their last two games after two blowout road losses to Purdue and Auburn to open the season against a brutal schedule.

They came back in Week 3 and beat a very good FCS team in New Hampshire 34-29 at home.  They racked up 413 total yards in that win.  Then last time out they nearly upset UConn in a 31-25 road loss as 21-point dogs.  They put up 404 total yards on the Huskies and actually outgained them as well.

Ohio is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Bobcats have one of the worst defenses in the country, and they should not be 15-point road favorites here given the state of their defense.  Ohio allows 27.2 points per game while ranking 111th in total defense at 410.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.

This Ball State offense has shown life the last two games and will be able to put up enough points to keep this game competitive.  Senior QB Kiael Kelly is completing 64.8% of his passes while also rushing for 170 yards and a score.  Junior RB Qua Ashley has rushed for 295 yards and 3 TD while averaging 5.7 per carry.  These are solid numbers especially when you consider the Cardinals have faced the 32nd-toughest schedule in the country and some very good defenses.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 48.5

The Kentucky Wildcats have been a dead nuts UNDER team the entire Mark Stoops tenure.  They play great defense, and they play at a snail's pace on offense to try and shorten games to give themselves their best chance to win.  That's especially the case when the play some of the top teams in the SEC like Georgia.

Kentucky ranks 85th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  Georgia is in no hurry either, ranking 72nd in tempo snapping the ball every 26.5 seconds.  Both teams have been more impressive on defense than they have been on offense this season, and both have QB's that just aren't up to SEC standards.

Kentucky is averaging just 5.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.2 per play.  They have faced some very good offenses in Toledo, Ole Miss and South Carolina.  So they have been battle tested and have held their own defensively.

Kentucky has flip flopped QB's this season with Calzada completing 25-of-53 (47.2%) of his passes and Boley completing 23-of-43 (53.5%).  They just don't have a QB on the roster capable of completing forward passes consistently, and I fully expect this elite Georgia defense to shut them down.  

The Bulldogs are allowing 19.5 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 38.6 points per game and 6.2 per play, holding them to 19.1 points per game below their season averages.  They have already faced two elite offenses in Tennessee and Alabama in their last two games, so this is a big step down in class for them.

I'm just not a fan of Georgia QB Gunnar Stockton who has only thrown 5 TD passes in four games.  He is more of a threat as a runner than he is as a thrower.  Kentucky should be able to bottle him up enough and limit this Georgia offense to 31 points or fewer.  And I don't think Kentucky will top 17 in this one.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 43 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 25 or fewer in four of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +10

This is one of the worst spots of the season for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini bounced back from their 63-10 drubbing at Indiana two weeks ago with a 34-32 upset home win over USC as 7-point dogs last week.  They have an even bigger game at home against Ohio State on deck next week, and this is the clear letdown spot for the Fighting Illini at Purdue this week.

Illinois just won't have much left in the tank for Purdue playing for a 6th consecutive week.  Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off a bye week under first-year head coach Barry Odom.  Teams with first-year head coaches benefit from bye weeks more than other teams, and that will be the case here for the Boilermakers.

They needed the bye after losses to USC at home and Notre Dame on the road coming in.  They played USC much tougher than the final score of 33-17 showed, and they put up 30 points on Notre Dame.  They were -3 in turnovers against USC including a pick-6 that changed the game.

I love what I've seen from Purdue sophomore QB Ryan Brown, who got his feet wet at a freshman last year and has taken a big leap forward this year despite a brutal schedule.  Browne is completing 63.1% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.  Brown threw for 311 yards in the opener against Ball State, 305 against USC and 250 against Notre Dame.

Purdue also wants revenge from a 50-49 (OT) loss at Illinois last season.  Browne had his best game of the season against the Fighting Illini in that loss, completing 18-of-26 passes for 297 yards and 3 TD without an interception, while also rushing for 118 yards.  He has already shown he can have a big game against this Illinois defense, and I think he'll have another big game that could lead to an outright upset given the favorable spot for the Boilermakers this weekend.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on UAB +7

The spot really favors UAB in this one.  The Blazers are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to prepare for Army's triple-option.  They have already faced Navy's triple-option this season and held up well, losing 38-24 as 20.5-point road dogs.  They were only outgained by 50 yards and were -3 in turnovers in that game as it was much closer than the 14-point final indicates.

UAB defensive coordinator Steve Russ is very familiar with defending the triple-option.  He actually played at Air Force and spent six season as their defensive coordinator after.  The defense should be much healthier off the bye, and this Army offense isn't nearly as potent as what they saw against Navy.

The Black Knights are only averaging 23.8 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They won't be able to go on the road and get margin against a UAB offense that will just keep coming.  The Blazers average 32.8 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.

The Blazers scored 24 points on Navy with 413 total yards and they also put up 24 points on Tennessee and finished with 394 total yards.  They have an elite passing attack led by QB Jalen Kitna, who is completing 71.5% of his passes and averaging 8.3 per attempt this season despite the tough schedule.

Army is allowing 31.0 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are allowing 7.3 yards per attempt in the passing game and you can throw on this Army defense that has taken a big step back this season as well.  The Black Knights rank 127th in pass success rate allowed, while UAB's pass offense ranks in the Top 20.  Army lost 28-6 at East Carolina last week and remains overvalued this week.  Bet UAB Saturday.

25* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Delaware -2.5

After being a FCS powerhouse prior, the Delaware Blue Hens are already proving they belong at the FBS level.  Head coach Ryan Carty returned 15 starters and a veteran roster that has already pulled off a couple upsets this season.

Delaware is 3-1 SU with a 35-17 win over Delaware State, a 44-41 upset win as 8.5-point home dogs to UConn and a 38-16 upset win as 4.5-point dogs at Florida International.  Even their 31-7 loss at Colorado as 24-point dogs was extremely misleading as they were only outgained by 2 yards but were -3 in turnovers.  They were stopped time and time again deep in Colorado territory, too.

I love the spot for the Blue Hens, who are coming off a much deserved bye week and now have basically two full weeks to prepare for this game against Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers don't have that same luxury, coming off a hard-fought 27-22 win at Missouri State on Saturday.  They are tired playing for a 6th consecutive week, they will be on a short week, and it will be tough for them to prepare for this dynamic Delaware offense in time for this game Friday night.

Western Kentucky has benefitted from playing the 188th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Hilltoppers are 3-1 but their three wins came against FCS North Alabama, and two of the worst FBS teams in the country in Nevada and Missouri State.  They were rocked 45-21 by Toledo in their lone step up game while allowing 508 total yards to the Rockets.

This suspect WKU defense will have its hands full against a Delaware offense that is averaging 31.0 points per game, 418.8 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play despite the tough schedule.  QB Nicholas Mincucci is completing 65.2% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores.  Senior WR Kyle Duplessis has 20 receptions for 306 yards and 2 TD, while senior RB Jo'Nathan Silver has 326 rushing yards and 3 TD on 7.2 per carry.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game in Delaware.  I believe the Blue Hens are the better team, and the spot really favors them off a bye while the Hilltoppers on a short week with the travel of back-to-back road games.  This is where WKU gets exposed similar to their 24-point loss at Toledo.  Bet Delaware Friday.

15* Sam Houston/New Mexico State C-USA ANNIHILATOR on Sam Houston -2

I love the situation for the Sam Houston State Bearkats Thursday night.  They have opened 0-4 against a brutal schedule with road losses to Western Kentucky, Hawaii and Texas, as well as a home loss to UNLV.  They have had a bye week since the loss to Texas, so they've had nearly two full weeks to prepare for this game.  Bye weeks are extra beneficial to teams with first-year head coaches like Sam Houston State.

This will be an actual short week for New Mexico State.  The Aggies are coming off a 38-20 loss Saturday at New Mexico, their biggest rivals.  It will be tough for them to get back up off the mat in time to get ready for this game against the Bearkats.  They also won't be nearly as motivated to win this game as they were to beat New Mexico.

While Sam Houston State has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, New Mexico State has faced the 160th-ranked schedule.  I love betting on teams who have played a tough schedule against teams that have played a weak schedule in October.  The stats are skewed to the team that has played the easier schedule, creating line value for the team that played the tougher schedule.

New Mexico State is overvalued due to a 2-2 record with home wins over FCS Bryant and Tulsa, and blowout road losses to LA Tech 49-14 and New Mexico 38-20.  The win over Tulsa was fluky as they were outgained by 85 yards by the Golden Hurricane and held to just 291 yards.  This Aggies offense is dreadful, averaging 18.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play despite the soft schedule of opposing defenses.

Sam Houston QB Hunter Watson stayed around to run Phil Longo's offense after a solid season last year.  I think the bye week will have done the senior QB wonders, and he should have a much better grasp of the system coming out of the bye.  He should torch a New Mexico State defense that allows 420 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  Bet Sam Houston State Thursday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3

I grabbed the Rams -3 Sunday night with the anticipation this line would move their way once the 49ers injury information came out later in the week.  This is now a great bet with the Rams currently as -7.5 to -9 favorites as of this writing Wednesday night.  If you missed out on the Rams -3 early in the week, I would recommend teasing the Rams down to -1.5 with the Jets +8.5 and/or the Commanders +8.5.  The Rams are going to win this game, so you can still get some value out of them with teasers if you missed out on the -3.

The 49ers' injury situation is even worse than anticipated.  I knew Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall and Josh Jennings would all be questionable at best.  Well, all three have been ruled out.  The 49ers will have to go back to Mac Jones, and he won't have anyone to throw to as Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are also out.  Their top three receivers are going to be Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson and Skyy Moore.

The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing 20.3 points per game, 284.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  They could easily be 4-0 as they blew a double-digit lead over the Eagles and had their game-winning FG attempt blocked and returned for a TD when they were trailing by a single point.  The 49ers won't be able to get much offensively against this Rams defense.

The 49ers also lost their best defender in DE Nick Bosa to a torn ACL.  The Jaguars ripped their defense for 26 points last week.  The 49ers could easily be 0-4 as their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They should feel fortunate to be 3-1 right now with some room to spare.  They can afford to lose this game, and they certainly will as this is a big step up in class for them.  

It's a terrible spot for the 49ers on the short week as one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL, while the Rams are one of the healthiest.  Sean McVay thrives in this situation, going 8-2 SU in Thursday night games in his tenure with Los Angeles.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* Padres/Cubs ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago -121

The Cubs should be bigger favorites over the San Diego Padres in this winner-take-all Game 3.  They have the advantage on the mound, they have the advantage at the plate, and they have home-field advantage in what should be a very hostile atmosphere in Chicago Thursday night.

I'll gladly fade the struggling Yu Darvish, who is 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts for the Padres this season.  Darvish has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with a 7.26 ERA in seven starts away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park in San diego.

Jameson Taillon has been solid all season for the Cubs going 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 23 starts.  Taillon has been at his best at home, going 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 10 starts at Wrigley Field.  He has never lost to the Padres, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five career starts against them while allowing just 8 earned runs in 30 innings.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

20* Tigers/Guardians ABC No-Brainer on Cleveland -109

The Cleveland Guardians came up clutch again last night to avoid elimination.  The Tigers barely won the game they had to have with Tarik Skubal on the mound in Game 1 needing two unearned runs for a 2-1 victory.  The Guardians responded with a 6-1 victory in Game 2, and now I expect the Guardians to win this series in Game 3 behind what will be a hostile Cleveland crowd this afternoon.

The Guardians are 20-5 in their last 25 games overall and playing with a ton of confidence, while the Tigers are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall and fortunate to even be here.  The Guardians have the much better bullpen with a 3.40 ERA on the season and a 0.00 ERA in these playoffs, while the Tigers have a 4.08 ERA as a bullpen and a 7.11 ERA in these playoffs.

Slade Cecconi has been dominant in his last four starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 24 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 2.19 ERA during this stretch.  Those were all must-win games as the Guardians were surging to try and make the playoffs, so he won't be rattled by this atmosphere.

Jack Flaherty has been rattled all season, going 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA in 31 starts for the Tigers.  That's especially been the case on the road where Flaherty is 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 starts away from home.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone road start at Cleveland this season.  Secconi is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Tigers this season, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* MLB Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-103)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games to win the NL West and home-field advantage in the wild card round.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in seven meetings with the Reds this season with five of those six wins coming by 3 runs or more, including a 10-5 win in Game 1.  I expect them to win by multiple runs again tonight due to their massive advantage on the mound and at the plate.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 12-8 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 34 innings with 44 K's in his last five starts for a minuscule 0.79 ERA.  He allowed just one earned run in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Reds in his lone start against them this season.

Zack Littell is 10-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts this season for the Rays and Reds.  He has really struggled down the stretch, allowing 20 earned runs and 9 homers in 35 2/3 innings in his last seven starts for a 5.05 ERA.  This will be his first career start against the Dodgers, and it will not go well for him.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Red Sox and Yankees tonight.  There will be 10-20 MPH winds blowing in from left at Yankee Stadium.  Two left-handed aces go tonight so pulling balls to left against them will be a big advantage for the pitchers.

Garrett Crochet is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 13-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 road starts.  Crochet is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees in 2025.

Max Fried is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Fried is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox in 2025, allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Padres/Cubs ABC No-Brainer on Chicago -111

This is a tough series for the Padres because the Cubs will throw two left-handers at them and the Padres really struggle against left-handed pitching.  They are hitting just .241 with a .307 OBP against southpaws this season while scoring just 3.8 runs per 9 innings.

Lefty Matthew Boyd goes for the Cubs in Game 1 today.  Boyd is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  He has been dominant at home, going 12-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Boyd is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA in two starts against the Padres this season, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings.

Nick Pivetta has big home/road splits this season.  He has obviously been much better at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  But Pivetta is 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 14 road starts this season.  He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two career starts at Wrigley Field, allowing 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 innings.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +152

The Cleveland Guardians went 19-4 in their final 23 games of the season to win the AL Central over the Detroit Tigers by one game.  The Tigers went 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and were fortunate to even make the postseason after the Houston Astros choked nearly as badly as them.

The Tigers have no business being this big of a favorite on the road against the Guardians in Game 1.  Tarik Skubal is a great starter, but he lost his last two starts against the Guardians both in September as -206 and -152 favorites.  The Guardians will battle him again, and I expect them to get the best of him.

Gavin Williams has been better than Skubal down the stretch and is massively undervalued.  Williams has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 23 of his last 26 starts, and 4 earned runs in the three starts he didn't.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 19 of those 26 starts.

Williams is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 16 home starts, 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in 13 day game starts, and 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts.  Williams owns the Tigers, going 3-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in three starts against the Tigers in 2025, allowing just 2 earned runs in 17 innings with 29 K's.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ABC No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have some of the best playmakers in the league on offense which will help out Jake Browning.  But they also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and keep getting shredded.

The Bengals rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 30.3 points per game.  After holding the lowly Browns in check in Week 1, the Bengals allowed 27 points to the Jaguars and 48 points to the Vikings the last two weeks.  I fully expect Denver to hang a big number on this poor Cincinnati defense.

The Broncos have clearly slipped a little defensively this season after benefiting from an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses last year.  They allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts two weeks ago and 23 points and 376 total yards to a banged up Chargers offense last week.  

I think Browning and company will do enough to help us cash this OVER 43.5 ticket in what will likely be in the ball park of a 30-20 win for Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Jets/Dolphins ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL and this total of 44 is too short as a result.  The Dolphins rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 32.3 points per game, 27th in total defense allowing 370.3 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Jets rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game.

The Jets allowed 29 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Bills and 34 to the Steelers.  The Dolphins allowed 33 points tot he Colts, 33 to the Patriots and 31 to the Bills.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 47 or more combined points in five of those seven and 52 or more in four of them.

The Jets will get Justin Fields back from a concussion Monday night that will really help out their offense.  They also get back starting WR Josh Reynolds.  The Dolphins have managed to stay fully healthy on offense with all of their top playmakers available tonight.  Both offenses are a lot healthier than these defenses.

The Dolphins will be without CB Storm Duck, who is among six defensive backs that are out with injury for Miami.  They are extremely thin in the secondary.  The Jets have five defenders on IR and will be without starting DE Jermaine Johnson.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -6.5

The Green Bay Packers should be 3-0 and if they were they probably wouldn't be less than 7-point favorites to the Dallas Cowboys.  While the Packers are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season, the Cowboys are one of the worst.

The Packers will want to win this game for Micah Parsons.  They will also want to win this game simply because they have a bye on deck next week, and they are coming off an upset loss to the Browns to add to their motivation.  Look for a big effort from the Packers in this one.

The Packers have the best defense in the NFL to this point allowing just 232.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  The Cowboys have one of the worst, allowing 30.7 points per game, 397.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  And that will be the difference in this game.

The Cowboys are so bad that they allowed Russell Wilson to light them up for 37 points and 506 total yards two weeks ago.  Wilson and the Giants have been dreadful offensively in their other two games against the Commanders and Chiefs, scoring a total of 15 points in those two games combined.

The Cowboys went on to allow 31 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  Williams looked terrible against the Vikings and Lions in his first two games.  Jordan Love isn't hitting on all cylinders yet, but he's going to look like the best QB in the NFL against this soft, banged up Cowboys defense.

Injuries are a big problem for the Cowboys right now.  The biggest is the injury to star WR CeeDee Lamb.  The Cowboys were lost offensively without him last week only scoring 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  Dallas is going to be without two starters on the offensive line in C Cooper Beebe and RG Tyler Booker as well.

Dak Prescott will be running for his life against this fierce Green Bay pass rush up against this makeshift Dallas offensive line.  The Cowboys are likely to get both CB DaRon Bland and CB Trevon Diggs back from injury this week, but both are banged up, as is DT Kenny Clark who had to leave the Chicago game with an injury.

The Packers own the Cowboys going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Home underdogs do not fare well in games officiated by Ron Torbert.  Indeed, home underdogs are 16-36 ATS in the last 52 games with Torbert as the head official.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

The 49ers could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  Their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They are overvalued due to that 3-0 start, and this is a terrible spot for them this week.  They are coming off that 1-point win over division rival Arizona and sit in 1st place alone in the NFC West.  They have an even bigger divisional game on deck Thursday against the Rams, and they want to make sure they are as healthy as possible for that game as it's much more important.  This is a clear letdown spot for the 49ers.

San Francisco is snake bitten by injuries, too.  The 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Nick Bosa which are three of their best players.  Brock Purdy will be playing through toe and shoulder injuries, and his current top two receivers in Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both questionable.  The offensive line cannot create any running lanes for Christian McCaffrey, and this is really a broken offense right now scoring just 19.7 points per game despite the 3-0 start.

The 49ers have been relying on defense thus far, and they will try to turn this into another defensive battle.  But this will be their first game without Bosa, and their defense is sure to get tested this week after facing three sub-par offenses in the Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals.

The Jaguars are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  The only starter questionable is WR Dyami Brown.  The Jaguars are 2-1 and should be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to the Bengals.  They have elite numbers averaging 356.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 17.0 points per game, 292 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.  This is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.

The offense even has a lot more room for improvement because Trevor Lawrence has had his receivers drop passes at the highest rate in the NFL.  They will get that shored up, and this offense will continue to improve rapidly under first-year head coach Liam Coen, who was responsible for Baker Mayfield's career season in Tampa Bay last year.  I fully expect Jacksonville to win this game outright, but we'll take the 3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +121

The Cincinnati Reds clinch the final wild card spot in the National League with a win today.  The Milwaukee Brewers have already secured the No. 1 seed throughout the postseason, meaning the World Series would go through Milwaukee.  They have nothing to play for and are playing like it now.

Brady Singer is 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 10 starts.  Singer is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 day game starts.  It's hard to envision the Milwaukee Brewers letting Freddy Peralta go very deep in this one.  This is more of just a tune up for him.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -135

The Cleveland Guardians are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will be the AL Central champs with home-field advantage in the wild card round with a win.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  They don't care nearly as much about this game as the Guardians and just want their season to be over.

Logan Allen has come up clutch in his last two starts firing 8 shutout innings in a 8-0 win over the Twins in his last start and allowing due one earned run in 5 innings against the Royals the start prior.  He will be facing a makeshift Texas lineup due to injuries and simply sitting guys because they don't care about these last few games.

I'll gladly fade Patrick Corbin, who is 4-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in eight day game starts.  He is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his last 10 starts as well.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3

The Atlanta Falcons +3 was the first play I released to clients this week.  I did so knowing the injury situation for the Washington Commanders was going to be pretty ugly this week, and it wasn't adjusted for early in the week.  It has now been adjusted, but the Falcons should be at least 3-point home favorites given all the factors.

The Commanders will be without starting QB Jayden Daniels, starting WR Terry McCLaurin and starting WR Noah Brown on offense.  They also could be without rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who has been huge for them thus far.  They were already without 3rd-down RB Austin Ekeler to a season-ending injury.

Washington is coming off a satisfying 41-24 home win over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Marcus Mariota was great in his first start in place of Daniels.  But now the Falcons have tape on him, and he will be without two of his top receivers and probably his RB.  Mariota will look much more like a backup QB in his first start on the road this week.

We will 'sell high' on the Commanders off that blowout win, and 'buy low' on the Falcons off a 30-0 blowout loss at Carolina.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Falcons outgained the Panthers 332 to 224 for the game, or by 108 total yards.  The Panthers had a Pick-6, and the Falcons got stopped time and time again in the red zone.

I think the Falcons were feeling fat and happy off their 22-6 road win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football the week prior.  They simply had a letdown against the Panthers, and everything that could go wrong, did.  Now the Falcons are fully focused, pissed off and ready to bounce back against the Commanders this week.

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense with the exception of some backups, and they are fully healthy on defense with the exception of CB A.J. Terrell.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL heading into Week 4, and they have a massive health advantage over the Commanders in this one.  

The Falcons have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing just 227.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 4th in the NFL, respectively.  They also have a bye on deck next week, and I love betting teams coming off a bad loss with a bye on deck because I know I'm going to get a fully focused effort from them.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are beating everyone except the Tampa Bay Bucs over the last few seasons.  They were knocked out of the playoffs two years ago by the Bucs, and they lost to the Bucs again in the regular season last year.  So there will be no letdown here for the Eagles as they want some serious revenge on this team.

The Eagles were extremely banged up in their last two losses to the Bucs, but now the Bucs are the team that is banged up while the Eagles are healthy, and they are going to get their revenge as a result.

The Bucs could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  They have needed three game-winning drives by Baker Mayfield to beat the Falcons by 3, the Texans by 1 and the Jets by 2.  Mayfield has been able to cover up many of their flaws against suspect competition, but he won't be able to cover them up this week against the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bucs are without two starting offensive linemen in RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauche.  LT Tristan Wirfs is questionable and not 100%.  WR Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury last week and has been ruled out.  QB Mayfield is questionable with a biceps injury.  WR Jalen McMillan is out, and WR Chris Godwin may make his season debut this week but is coming off a torn ACL and may only be a shell of his former self.  The Bucs are without their best pass rusher in D Calijah Kancey, and DE Logan Hall is questionable.

The Eagles are fully healthy on offense and got their passing game going finally last week in a comeback win over the Rams.  They are without LB Nakobe Dean and LB Nolan Smith Jr., but they are deep at the position.  They are without CB Adoree Jackson, but he's one of of the worst corners in the league and I actually think they will be better off without him.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the 3-0 Chargers and 'buy low' on the 0-3 Giants.  This is max line value due to their records, and there are several reasons to like the Giants to stay within this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset Sunday.

The Chargers not only 3-0, but all three wins came against their three division opponents in the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos.  They are 'fat and happy' with a 2-game lead in the division, and now they have to travel out East for the first time this season for the dreaded 10 AM body clock game for West Coast teams.

The injuries are starting to pile up for the Chargers, too.  They are without RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly, RG Mekhi Becton, and could be without C Bradley Bozeman, who is questionable.  They were already without LT Rashawn Slater and backup RT Savion Washington, and starting RT Trey Pipkins III was hobbled last week and won't be 100%.

Defensively, the Chargers are without LB Khalil Mack and LB Denzel Perryman, plus they have three players in the secondary on IR.  They gutted out a 23-20 home win over the Broncos last week despite all these injuries, and now they are primed for a letdown this week.

The Giants don't usually have a very big home-field advantage.  But that changes this week with the announcement that 1st-round pick Jaxson Dart will start at QB.  I saw enough from him in college and enough in the preseason to know he's going to be a future star like Jayden Daniels, and Dart and the Giants have the element of surprise working in their favor heading into this one.

Dart opens up so much more of the playbook than Russell Wilson, who is too short to use the middle of the field and is only good on deep balls against man-to-man coverage.  No offense has been worse in the red zone than the Giants because Wilson is just incapable of using the entire end zone.  Dart is great in the run-pass option game, which is going to open everything up.

The Giants are coming off a misleading 22-9 loss to the Chiefs.  They were only outgained by 25 yards, but they failed time and time again in the red zone, and their kicker got injured pregame to boot.  They fumbled going in for a TD as well.  That misleading loss has created some line value as the Giants should have covered +6.5, but it was just another bad beat that I've suffered early int he season and there have been a plethora of them.  Those breaks will start to go our way, starting with this week.

The Giants are also one of the healthiest temas in the NFL.  Their entire offensive line is intact, and the only player they are missing on offense is RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has been mostly innefective thus far anyway with rookie Cam Skattebo being the much more productive back.  Skattebo is going to thrive in this read-option offense as defenders will have to account for Dart's legs.

I like this Giants defense with one of the best defensive lines in the league.  They have the horses to take advantage of this banged-up Chargers offensive line to get constant pressure on Justin Herbert.  I think they will hold him in check enough, and Dart and company will be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -5

It's time to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots off a misleading 21-14 loss to the Steelers last week, and 'sell high' on the Carolina Panthers after a misleading 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  This is the perfect storm for value, and the Patriots are going to easily win this game by a TD or more Sunday to get us the cover.

The Patriots gave the game away against the Steelers by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line when they were going in for touchdowns, taking 14 points off the board right there.  They dominated the stats outgaining the Steelers 369 to 203, or by 166 total yards.  I trust in head coach Mike Vrabel to correct the mistakes, and I expect his team to respond in a big way this week.

The Panthers are 'fat and happy' after nabbing their first win of the season in a 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  They were actually outgained 334 to 224 by the Falcons, or by 110 total yards.  But they benefited from three turnovers including a pick-6.  The Falcons took the Panthers lightly coming off their 22-6 win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football and they paid for it.  The Falcons won't make the same mistake.

I'm not so sure the Panthers aren't the worst team in the NFL still.  They lost 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, and they trailed Arizona 27-3 in the 2H before a plethora of injuries to the Cardinals secondary allowed the Panthers to make it interesting late.  The Panthers are only averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.3 yards per play which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

The Patriots are great against the run.  They have had 56 running back carries against them and have only allowed one carry of more than 12 yards all season.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in yards before 1st contact on opponent runs, and 2nd in the NFL in defending outside zone runs, which is what the Panthers like to do offensively.

The Patriots are also the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are expected to get star CB Christian Gonzalez in the lineup for the first time this season.  The only starter they will for sure be without is LG Jared Wilson.  They have three other starters questionable that are all likely to play.

The Panthers are seriously banged up right now.  They are going to be without four starters in WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, LB D.J. Wonnum and LB Patrick Jones II.  They were already without two starers on the offensive line in C Austin Corbett and RG Robert Hunt.  And two more playmakers in WR Terairoa McMillan and RB Chuba Hubbard are both questionable, plus they were already without WR Jalen Coker.  Bryce Young is going to be very short on playmakers and running for his life for four quarters.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Vikings/Steelers NFL Dublin No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -140

The Minnesota Vikings were dominant in Carson Wentz's first game as a starter.  Head coach Kevin O'Connell is working wonders with another veteran QB, and Wentz is probably an upgrade over rookie JJ McCarthy and his injury could prove to be a blessing in disguise for this team.

The Vikings smashed the Bengals 48-10 at home last week.  Obviously they were aided by 5 turnovers and a couple defensive touchdowns, but this is one of the best defenses in the NFL and the reason I trust the Vikings.  Wentz went 14-of-20 for 173 yards and 2 TD while Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and a pair of scores.

The Vikings opened the season pretty banged up but now they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have LT Chrstian Darrisaw and C Ryan Kelly back this week.  They are only missing LG Donavan Jackson, and they get back WR Jordan Addison from a 3-game suspension to give Wentz another weapon.  This offense is absolutely loaded with playmakers.  LB Blake Cashman went on IR after week 1, and LB Andrew Van Ginkel is out this week, but they got FS Harrison Smith back and are fully healthy everywhere else on defense.

As high as I am on the Vikings, this play is more of a fade of the Pittsburgh Steelers than anything.  They should be 0-3, but are overvalued after a 2-1 start.  They beat the Jets 34-32 in their opener despite giving up 394 total yards and getting outgained by 123 yards.  That performance looks really bad after seeing the Jets offense the last two weeks in their 0-3 start.

The Steelers were thoroughly dominated in a 31-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.  They allowed 395 yards to the Seahawks and were outgained by 128 yards.  And last week was the most misleading of them all, a 21-14 win at New England in which the Patriots gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They allowed 369 total yards to the Patriots and were outgained by 166 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-of-22 (27%) passing when pressured this season.  No defensive coordinator brings more pressure than Brian Flores and his blitz-happy style.  Last year, Rodgers threw 3 interceptions against Flores and the Vikings, and Jets head coach Robert Saleh was fired after that 23-17 defeat.

The Vikings are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  The Steelers are averaging 247 yards per game and 4.8 per play on offense and allowing 386 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense, getting outgained by 139 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  Those are some of the worst numbers in the NFL through three weeks.

The Steelers have a broken offense and RB Jaylen Warren and TE Jonnu Smith are both questionable.  Aaron Rodgers won't be able to do anything against this blitz-heavy.  They have a broken defense mostly due to injuries.  They are without two starters in LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiah Loudermilk, and CB Joey Porter Jr. and SS DeShon Elliott are questionable.  They are relying on a lot of aging veterans and this is one of the worst defenses of the Mike Tomlin era.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on LA Tech/UTEP OVER 47.5

UTEP is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Miners rank 6th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.1 seconds.  This total of 47.5 is too low for a game involving UTEP this season.

The Miners have a very talented transfer QB in Malachi Nelson.  He was the 2nd-rated QB in the country when he committed to USC.  Nelson has thrown for 1,069 yards and 8 TD and is the perfect fit for this up-tempo offense under offensive-minded head coach Scotty Walden.

Sonny Cumbie is also an offensive-minded head coach.  Since switching QB's to Blake Baker, the LA Tech Bulldogs have thrived offensively the last two weeks scoring 49 points on New Mexico State and 30 on Southern Miss.  Baker is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt, but he also is a dual-threat with 145 rushing yards and 2 scores.  The Bulldogs also prefer to play faster than average ranking 50th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.6 seconds.

Both of UTEP's home games this season where they control the tempo have sailed over the total.  They beat Tennessee Martin 42-17 for 59 combined points easily going over the 49-point total.  They lost 31-25 to Louisiana-Monroe for 56 combined points and a total of 47.  That's a ULM team that plays at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the country and exclusively runs the football, too.  This will be another shootout in El Paso Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Penn State NBC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +3.5

Penn State is getting too much credit for this being a white out game at night.  Oregon is the better team and should not be catching 3.5 points in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  We'll gladly take advantage and grab the value off the key number of 3.

Oregon is absolutely steamrolling its opponents this season opening 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The only game they failed to cover they led Northwestern 34-0 before calling off the dogs and winning 34-14 as 26.5-point favorites after two 4th quarter TD's by the Wildcats in garbage time.

They also beat Montana State 59-13 as 29-point favorites, Oklahoma State 69-3 as 28.5-point favorites and Oregon State 41-7 as 33.5-point favorites.  That win over the Beavers was even a bigger blowout than the final score showed as they outgained them 585 to 147, or by 438 total yards.

I like the fact that the Ducks made easy work of the Beavers because they should still be very fresh despite playing for a 5th consecutive week.  They know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this showdown at Penn State Saturday night.

Penn State is 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS this season.  The Nittany Lions have played the 228th-ranked schedule in the country, which is 119 spots easier than that of Oregon to this point.  Their three wins came against Nevada 46-11 as 42.5-point favorites, FIU 34-0 as 42-point favorites and Villanova 52-6 as 46.5-point favorites.  Talk about the easiest schedule I've ever seen through three weeks.

Despite playing the more difficult schedule, the Ducks still have the more impressive numbers, especially offensively which is where they'll have a big edge over Penn State.  Oregon is averaging 8.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 4.1 yards per play.  Penn State is averaging 6.4 per play on offense and allowing 3.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.8 yards per play.

The difference in this game is going to be Oregon actually has an elite QB, while the QB position is holding Penn State back once again.  Drew Allar has come up short time and time again against teams with a pulse.  He is only averaging 7.1 yards per attempt thus far despite playing the easiest schedule in the country of all the top teams.

The Ducks have a legit QB in UCLA transfer Dante Moore.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, and has a 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He is also a dual-threat averaging 6.2 yards per rush.  Allar gives them nothing with his scrambling, averaging 2.7 per attempt despite the soft schedule.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida Atlantic +14

Memphis is overvalued after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season against the 95th-ranked schedule in the country.  They beat FCS Chattanooga 45-10 as 30.5-point favorites.  That's the same Chattanooga team that went on to lose 45-17 to Tennessee Tech.

Memphis beat Georgia State 38-16 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 2.  That's the same Georgia State team that lost 63-7 to Ole Miss and 70-21 to Vanderbilt.  Memphis beat Troy 28-7, which lost starting QB Goose Crowder on the opening drive to injury, and the drop off to the backup was enormous.  Kilcrease finished 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an INT in Crowder's place.

I can't say I'm 100% sure how good Memphis is, but I can say 100% sure they aren't as good as their record and margins of victory would indicate due to the circumstances and softness of their schedule.  I don't like Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis, who is a better runner than he is a thrower, which isn't what this Memphis offense is known for.  They are known for having great pocket passers through the years.

This might be Ryan Silverfield's worst team since going 7-6 in 2022.  They only brought back 9 starters this season and lost 14 of their top 15 tacklers on D, each of their top 4 receivers, and leading rusher Mario Anderson who has 1,362 yards and 18 TD last season.  Silverfield had to hit the transfer portal, and I'm just not high on all the replacements.

Memphis is coming off its 'National Championship' game last week in a 32-31 upset home victory over SEC opponent Arkansas as 7-point dogs.  Arkansas led that game 28-10 and took its foot off the gas.  The Razorbacks also fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing seconds as they were just trying to set up the game-winning FG.  Memphis did not win that game, Arkansas lost it.

Now Memphis is fat and happy after a 4-0 start and primed for a letdown of its own at Florida Atlantic this week.  This is a FAU team that is coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Memphis.  That's a huge advantage.  It's also even bigger for first-year head coaches like FAU's Zach Kittley, who was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years.

Kittley was able to recruit a lot of offensive talent with players wanting to play in his system.  He nabbed Western Kentucky transfer QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 65.2% of his passes for 880 yards and 8 TD in just three games thus far.  WR Easton Messer came with Veltkamp from WKU and has 25 receptions for 213 yards already.  Colorado transfer Asaad Waseem has 14 receptions for 163 yards and 3 TD.  Four starters on the O-Line are from Indiana, Louisville, FSU and Maryland.  The defense is loaded with Power 4 transfers as well.

FAU remains undervalued from a misleading 39-7 loss at Maryland in the opener for Kittley and company.  FAU committed 6 turnovers and was -6 in turnovers.  They were only outgained by 26 yards by the Terrapins.  They came back with a 56-14 home win over Florida A&M as 21.5-point favorites before a 38-28 loss at rival Florida International where they were -2 in turnovers and outgained the Panthers by 70 yards for another misleading final.  Memphis is primed for an upset here, so sprinkle a little on the money line as this 14-point spread is outrageous.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Florida Atlantic OVER 61

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Owls rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 18.7 seconds.  The 2nd-fasted team snaps it every 20.3 seconds, which is WVU under Rich Rodriquez.  FAU is averaging 85 plays per game, 30.3 points per game and 461.7 yards per game through three games.

Zach Kittley was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years and the OC at Western Kentucky in 2021.  His offenses are always fast-paced and pass-happy, air raid offenses.  Kittley was able to recruit a lot of offensive talent with players wanting to play in his system.  

He nabbed Western Kentucky transfer QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 65.2% of his passes for 880 yards and 8 TD in just three games thus far.  WR Easton Messer came with Veltkamp from WKU and has 25 receptions for 213 yards already.  Colorado transfer Asaad Waseem has 14 receptions for 163 yards and 3 TD.  Four starters on the O-Line are from Indiana, Louisville, FSU and Maryland.

FAU's defense will be a problem all season with just two starters back.  They allowed 39 points to Maryland and 38 to Florida International, which are two mediocre offenses.  Memphis is averaging 35.8 points per game, 438 yards per game and 6.6 per play and will be able to hang a big number on this FAU defense, but I think FAU is more than capable of keeping up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tennessee/Mississippi State OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  What makes that so amazing is that they have just kept their foot on the gas despite blowing out three of their four opponents.  They only know one speed.  They were even going hurry up trying to score up 32 on UAB in the final seconds last week.

Tennessee is 4-0 to the OVER this season combining for 71 points with Syracuse, 89 points with East Tennessee State, 85 points with Georgia and 80 points with UAB.  This total of 61.5 is very short for a game involving Tennessee right now.

The offense got a big upgrade at QB with Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar, who is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns in four games.  But the defense for Tennessee is a problem allowing 26 points to Syracuse, 44 to Georgia and 24 to UAB.  The Volunteers are without three starters on defense due to injury which is part of the problem.

Mississippi State also profiles as an OVER team ranking 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  QB Blake Shapen is back healthy this season and completing 66.3% of his passes for 882 yards and 7 touchdowns.  He will be up to the task trying to keep up with Tennessee in a shootout this week.

I think this number is lower than it should be due to Mississippi State playing three opponents that profile as under teams in Southern Miss, Arizona State and Northern Illinois.  The one game they went over they did it themselves in a 63-0 win over Alcorn State with a total of 55.5.  The Southern Miss game stayed under because it was the first game of the season, Arizona State ranks 94th in tempo and is a defensive-minded team, and NIU rank 118th in tempo with one of the worst offenses in the country.

Both offenses will be all gas no brakes in this one.  This should be a competitive game so both teams will be looking to keep scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Mississippi State +7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs made easy work of Southern Miss in a 34-17 win as 14-point favorites in the opener.  They led 34-10 before calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  They won and covered against a Southern Miss team that many are very high on due to getting Marshall head coach Charlie Huff and many of his players from a team that won the Sun Belt last season.

They are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They avenged their loss to Arizona State last year with a 24-20 upset win as 6.5-point home dogs.  They crushed Alcorn State 63-0 as 42-point favorites.  And they crushed Northern Illinois 38-10 as 24-point favorites.  Now they are getting too many points here in their SEC opener against Tennessee.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Shapen is completing 66.3% of his passes for 882 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio to prove he is back.  He leads an offense that is scoring 39.8 points per game and averaging 6.7 yards per play.  And that improvement on defense has been real as the Bulldogs are allowing just 11.8 points per game, 264 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.

This will be Tennessee's first true road game of the season.  The Volunteers have beaten up on Syracuse, East Tennessee State and UAB to inflate their numbers.  But they lost 44-41 at home to Georgia in their lone step up game.  And now I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall to 0-2 in SEC play this week.

Tennessee has an elite offense, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  They are missing three starters on defense and aren't nearly as strong as they were a year ago on this side of the ball as their defense led them to the 12-team playoff.  Tennessee allowed 26 points to Syracuse, 24 to UAB and 44 to Georgia.  Shapen and company will be able to match them score for score in what will be a hostile atmosphere with cowbells banging in Starkville Saturday afternoon.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +115

The Boston Red Sox just clinched a spot in the playoffs with a win yesterday and celebrated.  They don't care about the results of these final two games as they are now locked into the No. 5 seed in the American League.  They should not be favored over the Detroit Tigers today as a result.

That's especially the case when you consider the Tigers have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central and lose out on the tiebreaker.  They also have to fend off the Astros, who are one game behind them for the final wild card spot.

Keider Montera has performed well as a starter this season going 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 starts.  He will likely be facing a Red Sox lineup full of backups as they will likely rest their guys over these final two games to get them refreshed for the postseason.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -6.5

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season after a gut-wrenching 23-21 home loss to Fresno State last week.  Now they have to go to the mainland and face the triple-option offense of Air Force, a very physical brand of football that I don't think they'll handle well at all given how tired they are.

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado is playing through injury and you can tell.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per pass attempt with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio despite playing a very soft schedule.  I is also averaging just 2.0 yards per attempt on the ground.  Hawaii is averaging just 22.0 points per game and 4.6 yards per play despite the soft schedule.

The Rainbow Warriors don't have the firepower to keep up with Air Force, which has proven to be dynamic on offense with new QB Liam Szarka.  He led the Falcons to 37 points and 517 total yards against a very good Boise State defense last week.  Szarka went 13-of-18 passing for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also rushing for 111 yards and a score.  The sophomore could prove to be the next great Air Force QB.

Air Force has a massive rest advantage after having a bye week already this season.  This will be just the 4th game in 5 weeks for Air Force while it's the 6th game in 6 weeks for Hawaii.  The Falcons will be extra motivated after already suffering two MWC losses to Utah State and Boise State.  They won't be taking Hawaii lightly.  Hawaii lost 40-6 at Arizona in its lone trip to the mainland earlier this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* LSU/Ole Miss ABC ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between LSU and Ole Miss.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Ole Miss wants revenge from a 29-26 (OT) loss at LSU last season, and I think they get it at home this time around.

The injury to sophomore QB Austin Simmons was a blessing in disguise for Ole Miss.  It allowed senior QB Trinidad Chambliss to shine and make the decision easy on Lane Kiffin to stick with him moving forward.

Chambliss came in for an injured Simmons to lead the 41-35 home win over Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week in his first full game as a starter, Chambliss led the Rebels to a 45-10 home win over Tulane.  That was a tricky sandwich spot coming off SEC wins over Kentucky and Arkansas, and with LSU on deck, and Chambliss led the way.

That was a Tulane team with impressive wins over Duke and Northwestern prior to facing Ole Miss.  The Rebels nearly pitched a shutout outgaining the Green Wave 558 to 282, or by 276 total yards.  Chambliss is completing 67.7% of his passes for 719 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11.6 per attempt.  But his biggest asset is his running ability, rushing for 195 yards and two scores already in limited action.

LSU is also 4-0 but it's easy to knock some of their wins.  Their 17-10 win at Clemson looks much less impressive now with Clemson sitting at 1-3 on the season and nearly losing to Troy.  They were upset on the road at Georgia Tech and upset at home as 17.5-point favorites to Syracuse.

LSU also only beat Florida 20-10 despite being +4 in turnovers and the Gators turning it over 5 times to hand them the win.  Florida also sits at 1-3 with losses to South Florida at home and a 26-7 blowout at Miami after losing to LSU.

This LSU offense looks broken, and QB Garrett Nussmeier is clearly playing through injury.  I just don't think the offense has the firepower to keep up with Kiffin and company, and the defense hasn't been tested by a decent offense yet and both Florida and Clemson have looked rough on that side of the ball, and the other two opponents were LA Tech and SE Louisiana.  LSU only managed 23 points against LA Tech as well.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on UL-Monroe ML -120

Arkansas State is gassed.  The Red Wolves will be playing for a 5th consecutive week to start the season.  They lost 56-14 to Arkansas, 24-16 to Iowa State and 28-21 at Kennesaw State last week.  They had nothing left for Kennesaw State last week after playing Arkansas and Iowa State, and they certainly won't have anything left for UL-Monroe this week.

UL-Monroe had a bye two weeks ago and will be playing just its 4th game in 5 weeks.  The Warhawks returned from their bye and upset UPTE 31-25 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.  They rushed for 252 yards and went 9-of-15 passing for 149 yards in the win.

The Warhawks are a run-heavy team that averages 218.7 rushing yards per game and 5.7 per carry despite one of their three opponents being Alabama.  That makes this a terrible matchup for an awful Arkansas State defense that is particularly poor against the run.

Arkansas State is allowing 33.0 points per game, 489 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  The Red Wolves are allowing 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  They are a tired defense and stand very little chance of slowing down this ULM power-running attack.  Bet UL-Monroe on the Money Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The Yankees are tied with the Blue Jays for 1st place in the AL East.  They lose out on the tiebreaker, so this is a must-win game.  They would get the No. 1 seed and a bye into the divisional round by winning the division, whereas they would be a wild card without winning it and have to play a 3-game series to keep their hopes alive.

I like that the Yankees have the 1st game on the board today and play a couple hours before the Blue Jays do so they can put the pressure on them with a win.  I expect them to win this game by multiple runs and continue their hot streak to close out the season.  The Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with seven of their last eight wins coming by multiple runs.

Cam Schlittler is 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 13 starts this season for the Yankees.  He held the Orioles to one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-1 victory in his lone start against them on September 21st.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 10-9 with a 4.54 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Sugano is 0-4 with a 8.02 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 21 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 16 base runners in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees this season.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on EMU/CMU OVER 54.5

These are two of the worst defenses in college football and this total of 54.5 is too short as a result.  Both offenses will have success and both should reach or exceed 28 points in this one.

Eastern Michigan is allowing 39.8 points per game, 504.5 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 14 points, 155 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.

Central Michigan is allowing 33.0 points per game, 396.3 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  The Chippewas are allowing 6.1 points, 37 yards and 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents average.

Eastern Michigan allowed 52 points to Texas State, 28 points in an upset loss to Long Island, 48 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in Kentucky, and 31 points to another one of the worst offenses in the country in Louisiana with a backup QB.  But Eastern Michigan has shown a lot offensively against a tough schedule of opposing defenses scoring at least 23 points in all four games.

Central Michigan allowed 63 points to Michigan and 45 points to Pittsburgh.  I like QB Joey Labas, who led this CMU offense to 506 yards and 49 points against Wagner last week while throwing 3 touchdown passes.  I also like EMU QB Noah Kim, who is completing 64% of his passes for 993 yards and 5 TD despite the tough schedule.  He has also rushed for a pair of scores.  Both QB's will have their way with these soft defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +22.5

It's time to 'sell high' on Vanderbilt after opening 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  The wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina don't look as good now, and the blowout win over Georgia State doesn't look as good either considering Georgia State also lost 63-7 to Ole Miss.

Many were calling for a letdown last week against Georgia State, but Vanderbilt wasn't having it as they wanted revenge after one of their losses last season actually came to Georgia State in a big upset.  This week is the letdown spot against Utah State.  That's especially the case with their biggest game of the season on deck at Alabama that they will be looking ahead to.

Bronco Mendenhall wins everywhere he goes, and his blueprint is already working wonders at Utah State in Year 1.  The Aggies are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with their lone loss coming at Texas A&M 44-22 as a 35-point dogs.  Texas A&M just beat Notre Dame on the road and may be a playoff contender this season.  If they can stay within 22 points of A&M on the road, they can stay within 22.5 of Vanderbilt on the road.

Utah State also beat UTEP 28-16 as 6-point favorites in the opener and Air Force 49-30 as 4.5-point dogs.  They avoided the letdown last week in a 48-7 win as 24-point favorites over McNeese State.  Mendenhall hit the transfer portal hard, and incumbent starting QB Bryan Barnes is the perfect fit for his offense.

The Utah transfer Barnes came on strong for the Aggies last season and has a ton of starting experience.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 197 yards and 6 TD as one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He's basically a clone of Vanderbilt's Diego Paiva with the toughness and leadership he plays with.

Utah State is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Those are elite numbers, and Mendenhall, Barnes and the Aggies will be treating this as their 'National Championship' game getting to go on the road and face a SEC team.  Vanderbilt's 'National Championship' game is next week at Alabama.  It's easy to see which team is going to be more motivated this week.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on USC/Illinois OVER 59

USC is putting up the best offensive numbers in the country to this point.  The Trojans are scoring 52.5 points per game, averaging 584 yards per game and 9.2 yards per play.  This despite calling off the dogs with four straight blowout wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue and Michigan State.

This is a competitively lined game with USC -6.5, so they shouldn't have to take their foot off the gas this week.  Indiana didn't take its foot off the gas last week in a 63-10 home victory over Illinois.  That game got out of hand because 7 of Illinois' 10 defensive backs were hurt and they were relying on backups.  Well, those cluster injuries in the secondary will be a big problem for Illinois again this week against this high-octane USC attack.

Illinois is going to be forced to try to keep up in a shootout.  This Illinois offense was impressive prior to the Indiana game.  The Fighting Illini put up 52 on Western Illinois, 45 on Duke and 38 on Western Michigan.  With 10 starters back on offense, this Illini unit is one of the better offenses in the Big Ten.

Senior QB Luke Altmyer is completing 70% of his passes with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Senior WR Hank Beatty has been a monster with 21 receptions for 302 yards.  USC is far from a juggernaut on defense, and certainly not as good as that Indiana defense that Illinois just faced.  This has the makings of another shootout involving USC.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke/Syracuse OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams that like to play fast, efficient offense square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between Duke and Syracuse inside perfect conditions in a dome.  Syracuse ranks 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.6 seconds.  Duke ranks 9th snapping it ever 22.7 seconds.  So this is a matchup of two Top 10 tempo teams.

Duke is 4-0 OVER in its four games finishing with 62, 64, 61 and 78 combined points.  The Blue Devils have an elite offense scoring 34.0 points per game, averaging 465.5 yard per game and 7.2 yards per play.  But the Blue Devils have an ugly defense, allowing 32.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They allowed 45 points to Illinois, 34 to Tulane and 33 to NC State.

Syracuse is 3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Orange boast an electric offense once again this season averaging 38.3 points per game, 473.3 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  That's really impressive when you consider they have faced Tennessee and Clemson, two great defenses.  The Orange are allowing 27.5 points per game, 458 yards per game and 5.9 per play defensively.

I know Syracuse QB Steve Angeli was lost for the season with a torn Achilles against Clemson last week.  But keep in mind backup QB Rickie Collins actually won the job in the spring before barely losing out to Angeli in the fall.  Fran Brown clearly has a lot of faith in him, and he kept the points coming after Angeli exited against Clemson last week.  The sophomore Collins is a LSU transfer who was the 12th-ranking QB in the country coming out of high school.  He'll be comfortable in his first start at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Houston/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -12.5

This is one of the biggest scheduling disadvantages you will see all season for Oregon State.  The Beavers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week, on a short week, off a brutal schedule that has them absolutely gassed right now.

After losing 34-15 at home to California and 36-27 at home to Fresno State, the Beavers went on the road and lost 45-14 at Texas Tech.  They had nothing left for Oregon last week in their biggest rivalry in the Civil War and it showed, losing 41-7.  They were outgained 585 to 147 by the Ducks, or by 438 total yards.  It was an even bigger blowout than the 41-7 final showed.

Oregon State has played the 2nd-most difficult schedule in the country.  The Beavers are lost program right now without a conference to play in and I just don't see it going much better for them moving forward.  They will have zero home-field advantage Friday night after that 0-4 start as fans are already fed up with this team and this head coach.

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They finally got the head coach that can turn this program around in Willie Fritz.  He led Sam Houston to back-to-back FCS title games, led Georgia Southern to a Sun Belt title in his first season, and led Tulane to 12-2 and Cotton Bowl champs in 2022 and 11-1 and an AAC title game appearance in 2023.

The cupboard was bare for Fritz in his first season last year coming off a 4-8 campaign in 2023.  He only had nine starters back and the Cougars went 4-8 in his first season.  Now Fritz has 16 starters back in 2025 and all the pieces in place.  He brought back his offensive coordinator at Tulane in Slade Nagle, and nabbed defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong from Florida.

The Cougars are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season winning 27-0 over Stephen F. Austin as 24-point favorites, 35-9 at Rice as 14-point road favorites, and 36-20 over Colorado as 4-point home favorites.  Houston had a great defense last year holding foes to 22.9 points per game and 325 yards per game.  That defense is even better this season, allowing 9.7 points per game, 224 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.

After having one of the worst offenses in the country last year, the Cougars finally have an offense this season with nine starters back.  They brought in Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman, who was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school but just couldn't stay healthy in College Station.  Weigman is completing 64.3% of his passes for 569 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores.

Weigman and company are champing at the bit to get back on the field for this game against Oregon State after having a bye week.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team, while the Beavers will have nothing left in the tank off the Civil War and on a short week.  The spot couldn't be any better for the Cougars, who are by far the superior team as it is and should win by multiple touchdowns.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -146

The Cleveland Guardians are 17-3 in their last 20 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will keep their foot on the gas today hosting the lifeless Texas Rangers.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  That includes five losses to the Marlins and Twins.  They won't show up for this series against the Guardians, either.  They are just ready for their season to be over.

Slade Cecconi has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 0.87 ERA during this stretch.  Cecconi allowed just 2 earned runs and 4 base runners in 6 innings in his last start against Texas on August 22nd.

Jack Leiter is 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.  Leiter is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland, allowing 6 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

20* FSU/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Two of the best offensive teams in the country square off Friday night in what should be an absolute shootout between Florida State and Virginia.  This total of 57.5 is too low and not accounting for just how good these offenses are.

Florida State ranks 1st in scoring offense at 58.0 points per game, 1st in total offense at 628.7 yards per game and 2nd at 8.9 yards per play.  Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has made a huge difference, as has Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos.  The dual-threat QB is the perfect fit for a Malzahn offense.

Virginia ranks 1st in scoring at 45.5 points per game, 5th in total offense at 564.5 yards per game and 17th at 7.2 yards per play.  North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris is balling out in this offense that is loaded with weapons.  Morris is completing 70.8% of his passes for 1,050 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 132 yards and a score thus far.

Virginia will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout.  Against the only offense they faced with a pulse so far, they lost 35-31 for 66 combined points with NC State.  I think Florida State will hang at least 35 on them as well, and the Cavaliers can get to 28 or more in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on Seattle +1

The Seattle Seahawks are by far the superior team over the Arizona Cardinals.  They have the better numbers, have played the tougher schedule, and have fared better against two common opponents already.  They are also the much healthier team and simply own the Cardinals, which are the biggest reasons I'm on them Thursday night.

Both teams have played the 49ers.  The Seahawks played the 49ers in Week 1 when the 49ers were much healthier and lost 17-13.  The Cardinals lost to the 49ers 16-15 last week, and the 49ers were without Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa and George Kittle, which were three players the Seahawks had to face.

The Seahawks beat the Saints 44-13 while the Cardinals only beat the Saints 20-13, and the Saints actually had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds.  The Seahawks beat the Steelers 31-17 on the road, while the Cardinals only beat the Panthers 27-22 at home.  The Steelers are much better than the Cardinals for their only non common opponents thus far.

The Seahawks are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play despite playing the tougher schedule.  The Cardinals are averaging 5.0 yards per ply on offense and allowing 5.0 yards per play on defense, breaking even in that department.

The Cardinals are missing 6 players in the secondary and are decimated in that area.  That includes starting CB Will Johnson.  LB Akeem Davis-Gaither is questionable.  Sam Darnold is forming great chemistry with Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Cupp and rookie Tory Horton.  He should light up this depleted Arizona defense.

The Cardinals have two starters questionable on the offensive line in LT Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Evan Brown.  They don't have much depth with three linemen on IR and another two questionable.  They just lost starting WR Zay Jones to a concussion on the final offensive play against the 49ers last week, so he won't be available Thursday.  Marvin Harrison Jr. has a case of the drops and just hasn't panned out in the NFL to this point.

Now the Cardinals will be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks, which is easily the best defense they have faced after taking on the Panthers, Saints and 49ers.  The Seahawks are allowing just 15.7 points per game and 4.8 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 6th in the NFL, respectively.  They are remarkably healthy on both sides of the football not missing a single starter with only two questionable.

This is a short week for both teams, but it favors the Seahawks.  They were in a 44-13 laugher against the Saints on Sunday so they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  The Cardinals were life and death with the 49ers, losing on a last-second FG to Mac Jones.  Couple that will all their injuries and this is a terrible time to be on a short week for Arizona.

The Seahawks own the Cardinals, going 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have held the Cardinals to 21 points or fewer in six consecutive meetings and an average of 14.0 points per game in their last six meetings.  It's clear they have Kyler Murray and this Arizona offense figured out, and their dominance defensively will once again be the key to them getting a win and cover here Thursday night.  Arizona has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL to boot.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

15* Army/East Carolina ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Army +5.5

I love backing service academies on short weeks.  The opponent doesn't have the proper time to prepare for the triple-option.  And we saw that East Carolina couldn't handle Army's triple option last season.  Wrong team favored here.

Army beat East Carolina 45-28 last season.  But this was a 38-7 game going into the 4th quarter before Army called off the dogs, and ECU got three garbage time TD's in the 4th quarter.  Army isn't as strong as last year, but I don't think ECU is as strong as they were last year, either.

Army has been undervalued since a 30-27 loss to Tarleton State as 14-point favorites in the opener.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Tarleton State play for the FCS National Championship this season they are that good and have been blasting everyone else.  Army responded with a 24-21 upset win as 17-point dogs at Kansas State in Week 2.

Army then got a bye week and came back and gave North Texas all they wanted in a 45-38 loss as 2.5-point dogs.  That's the same North Texas team that blasted Washington State 59-10 the week prior and is going to prove to be on the best non-Power 4 teams in the country.

While Army will be playing just its 2nd game in 3 weeks after having a bye, East Carolina will be playing its 5th game in less than 5 weeks.  The Pirates have only had 4 days to prepare for this Army triple-option after losing 34-13 at home to BYU as 6.5-point dogs last week.  That was a physical game that would have taken a lot out of them as well.

East Carolina's two wins this season have come against Campbell and Coastal Carolina.  Campbell is one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in FBS.  Campbell lost to Furman and Rhode Island and only beat Bryant by 2 in OT.  Coastal Carolina lost to Virginia by 41 and only beat Charleston Southern 13-0 as a 28.5-point favorite.

Army QB Dewayne Coleman has been in and out with injuries this season.  He sat out the Kansas State game, and backup QB Cale Hellums led the upset of the Wildcats.  Hellums got the start against North Texas and was replaced by Coleman, who played the better game to lead the comeback.  They have both proven they can play, so I'm not concerned if Coleman plays or not after exiting on the final drive of the North Texas game with a lower body injury.  Army is the better team with either QB.  Bet Army Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -136

The Cleveland Guardians are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall and are now hold a one-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one point, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves prior to dropping the first two games of this series in Cleveland.

It will be another raucous atmosphere in Cleveland tonight as the Guardians go for the sweep and grab a stranglehold on the AL Central.  I like their chance with rookie Parker Messick, who has come up clutch here down the stretch.  He is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in six starts for the Guardians this season.

Messick will have the element of surprise as the Tigers have not faced him yet, which will work to his advantage.  He will be comfortable tonight, while Detroit rookie Troy Melton will not be making his 4th career start on the road in a hostile environment.  Melton has allowed 6 earned runs in 10 innings in his two road starts this season.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks +140

Everyone left the Arizona Diamondbacks for dead when they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners at the deadline.  The Diamondbacks have had other plans, fighting their asses off to pull within one game of the final wild card spot in the National League with 5 games remaining.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall and will continue to fight until the end.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 1.5 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West but basically 2 games ahead because they own the tiebreaker.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they certainly won't be as motivated as the Diamondbacks tonight.

Ryne Nelson has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  Nelson is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 22 starts and 10 relief appearances.  He has been at his best at home, going 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts and 6 relief appearances in Arizona.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in three career starts against the Dodgers, allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 17 innings.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  He is 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts.  Snell is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his last four starts against the Diamondbacks, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians -120

The Cleveland Guardians are 16-2 in their last 18 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one point, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-10 in their last 11 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves prior to a Game 1 loss to the Guardians after blowing a 2-0 lead.

Tanner Bibee has come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings with 21 K's in his last three starts for a 1.25 ERA during this stretch.  He has owned the Tigers, allowing just one earned run in 13 innings with 16 K's for a 0.69 ERA in two starts against them in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is 8-14 with a 4.60 ERA in 30 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 road starts.  Bibee is 4-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 home starts this season.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +175

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 15 games, and 4 runs or more in 14 of them.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as massive road underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of this series.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and basically clinched a Top 2 seed in the National League, which gives them a bye to avoid the wild card round.  They have been going through the motions and will continue to do so over the final week.  The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer after 9 innings in all four losses.

I actually give the Marlins the advantage on the mound tonight despite being such massive underdogs.  Ryan Weathers is 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in seven starts for the Marlins this season.

Jesus Luzardo is 14-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts this season, including 7-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 15 home starts.  Luzardo is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts against the Marlins this season.  Getting to face him for a 4th time this season is an advantage to Miami hitters.  Bet the Marlins Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

Everyone left the Arizona Diamondbacks for dead when they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners at the deadline.  The Diamondbacks have had other plans, fighting their asses off to pull within one game of the final wild card spot in the National League with 6 games remaining.  They have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall and will continue to fight until the end.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 2.5 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West but basically 3.5 games ahead because they own the tiebreaker.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they certainly won't be as motivated as the Diamondbacks tonight.

Shohei Ohtani has been solid but unspectacular.  He has a 3.29 ERA in 13 starts this season and hasn't once made it past the 5th inning as the Dodgers have been cautious with him.  They will make this a bullpen game once again.

Brandon Pfaadt took only 97 pitched for a complete game in a 5-1 win over the Giants in his last start allowing just two base runners and one unearned run.  Pfaadt has huge home/road splits this season at 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 16 home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three career home starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-110)

The Seattle Mariners have come up massively clutch down the stretch to gain a 3-game lead on the Houston Astros in the AL West with 6 games to go.  They have gone 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They still have a lot to play for not only to try and clinch the division, but also to get a Top 2 seed in the American League to get a bye and avoid the wild card round.  They have a 2-game lead on the Tigers for the No. 2 seed.

They aren't about to let up against the Rockies, who are 6-23 in their last 29 games overall with 20 of those losses coming by 2 runs or more.  It looks as if McCade Brown will be getting the bulk of the innings for the Rockies today.  Brown is 0-4 with a 9.17 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in five starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 37 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The New York Yankees have a lot to play for.  They trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 2 games in the AL East with six games against two of the worst teams in baseball remaining in the White Sox and Orioles.  Look for them to handle their business with a win by multiple runs tonight over the lowly White Sox.

Luis Gil is 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA in four home starts.  He'll be facing a White Sox team that is 1-8 in their last nine games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of the eight losses, and 2 runs or fewer six times.

The Yankees are 5-1 in their last six games overall while scoring 6 runs or more in all five victories, hitting the cover off the ball right now.  Shane Smith allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles coming in.  

The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the White Sox with all 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +205

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 14 games, and 4 runs or more in 13 of them.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as massive road underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of this series.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and basically clinched a Top 2 seed in the National League, which gives them a bye to avoid the wild card round.  They have been going through the motions and will continue to do so over the final week.  The Phillies are 1-3 in their last four games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in all three losses.

Edward Cabrera is 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts for the Marlins this season.  Cabrera has owned the Phillies, allowing just one earned run in 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  This guy is too good to be a +200 underdog today.

Cristopher Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start and has a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts.  The Phillies won't hesitate to pull their starting pitchers early here over the final week to save them for the postseason.  Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians +144

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and are now tied for the final wild card spot and only one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one points, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-9 in their last 10 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves coming in.

The Tigers are hoping Tarik Skubal will be the answer, but they've lost his last two starts as -191 favorites over the Marlins and -206 favorites over the Guardians.  Skubal is getting way too much respect tonight as a big road favorite.

Getting disrespected is Cleveland ace Gavin Williams, who is 11-5 with a 3.06 ERA in 30 starts this season.  Williams has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts while posting a 2.10 ERA in those 11 starts.  Williams owns the Tigers, going 2-2 with a 1.67 ERA in six career starts against them, allowing 6 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

20* Lions/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

This game has shootout written all over it.  These are two of the best offenses in the NFL that are pretty much both fully healthy heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  But both defenses leave a lot to be desired, especially with injuries they are both dealing with right now.

The Ravens are averaging 40.5 points per game and 6.9 yards per play offensively after two games against the Bills and Browns.  The Lions are averaging 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play in two games against the Packers and Bears.

The Lions have eight defenders listed as out or on IL.  LB Jack Campbell, CB D.J. Reed and FS Kerby Joseph are all listed as questionable, and htey are without DE Marcus Davenport.  The Ravens will be without DE Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy, and Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are both dealing with groin injuries in the secondary that have them less than 100%.

The Ravens went for 81 combined points with the Bills and 58 with the Browns in their two games this season.  The Lions just went for 73 combined points with the Bears last week.  This total of 51.5 is too short Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +6.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL over the past few seasons.  They finally had their string of 17 consecutive wins in on-score games come to an end in Week 1 with a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil.  Their luck has run out, and that was evident again last week when they lost 20-17 at home to the Eagles.

The Chiefs are 0-2, and the problems they are having aren't quick fixes.  Of course they will be motivated after an 0-2 start, but so will the 0-2 New York Giants, and I think the Chiefs are just getting the benefit of the down with this crazy 6.5-point spread because of their history.  But these aren't he same old Chiefs.

Kansas City is down its two biggest playmakers on offense in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.  Rookie Jalen Royals is questionable as well.  Patrick Mahomes is just having to improvise to try to get the offense going, running the ball more than he ever has.  But it's just not working, and this offense isn't dynamic enough to be laying big numbers like this on the road.  Travis Kelce looks washed, Juju Smith Schuster is on his last leg, and Hollywood Brown has been a major disappointment.  The offensive line is also struggling in the early going.

The New York Giants showed what they are capable of last week in their 40-37 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.  If this was later in the season that loss would be tough to recover from, but it's still very early and the Giants still have hope.  They will be extra motivated with the Chiefs coming to town.

The Giants had 506 total yards on the Cowboys.  Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards and 3 TD, and Nabers and Robinson went off for 17 receptions for 309 yards and 3 TD to show they are two of the best young weapons in the game.  The Giants are better than they've shown defensively, and this is a step down in class for them against the Chiefs after facing the Commanders and Cowboys.

The Giants have some of the best pass rushers in the game in Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeax.  Teams that give the Chiefs problems are ones that can get pressure without blitzing like the Eagles.  The Giants are capable of the same thing.  They also should get LT Andrew Thomas back for the first time this season to help protect Wilson, and they won't have to face Kansas City DE Mike Danna, who is out for this one.  The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of -5 or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Bears OVER 48.5

The Cowboys allowed touchdowns to the Eagles on each of their first three drives of the season.  The weather delay slowed the Eagles down.  The Cowboys allowed 37 points and 506 total yards to the Giants last week.  That's the same Giants offense that was held to 6 points by the Commanders in Week 1.  

It was obvious the Cowboys would be a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense this season, and it is coming to fruition.  They traded their best defender in Micah Parsons, and then they paid CB DaRon Bland with the money they saved.  Well, Bland is now out with an injury for a 2nd consecutive week.  And fellow starting CB Trevon Diggs is highly questionable to go in this one.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys scored on each of their first four drives against the Eagles before the delay.  They came back with 40 points and 478 total yards on the Giants last week.  They have an elite offense with Prescott healthy throwing to some of the best weapons he has ever had led by Lamb and Pickens.

The Bears went for an offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson.  They now profile as a dead nuts OVER team.  They lost 27-24 to the Vikings in Week 1 for 51 combined points and made JJ McCarthy look like Joe Montana in the 4th quarter.  McCarthy and the Vikings went on to score just 6 points against the Falcons last week.

It was way worse in Week 2 for this Chicago defense.  They lost 52-21 to the Lions for 73 combined points while allowing 511 total yards and 8.8 yards per play.  That's the same Lions offense that was held to 13 points by the Packers in Week 1.

Few defenses have been hit harder by injuries in the early going than the Bears.  They are missing 5 cornerbacks alone!  CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Jones, CB Terell Smith and CB Zah Frazier are all out.  MLB TJ Edwards is also out, so look for the Cowboys to hang a big number on this soft, banged up defense in a shootout.  Caleb Williams should be able to keep pace as this is a step down in class of opposing defenses after having to face the Lions and Vikings the first two weeks.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Cardinals/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

Injuries to Arizona's secondary are a big reason I'm on the OVER in this game.  The Cardinals will be without 5 defensive backs and possibly 6.  They are without CB Will Johnson, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, FS Joey Blount, CB Starling Thomas V and CB Garrett Williams.  CB Max Melton is doubtful.

All of these injuries in the secondary are a big reason the Carolina Panthers were able to come to come back on the Cardinals and nearly pull off the upset last week.  The Panthers came back from 27-3 down and had the ball with a chance to win at the end, losing 27-22 for 49 combined points.

Mac Jones isn't a big downgrade from a hobbled Brock Purdy.  I think this total has been adjusted down too much due to Purdy's absence.  Jones is more of a gun slinger who will make big plays in the passing game, but also some mistakes.  He went 26-of-39 passing for 279 yards and 3 TD in his first start last week in a 26-21 win over the Saints for 47 combined points.  Kyle Shanahan can really get the most out of any QB in his offense.

The 49ers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses in Sam Darnold and the Seahawks and Spencer Rattler and the Saints.  Even Rattler threw 3 TD passes against them last week.  Now this is a big step up in class for the 49ers against an Arizona defense that should be one of the best in the NFL this season.

Shootouts have been the story in this NFC West rivalry.  In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 47 or more combined points in all seven, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 43.5-point total.  There's a ton of value on the OVER in this game this week.  Bet the OVER Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +108

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 7 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 7-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-6 in their last six games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers today.

Eury Perez is 12-11 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 37 career starts for the Marlins.  Merrill Kelly has allowed 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Kelly allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, in 5 innings of a 9-8 loss to the Marlins in his last start against them on June 27th.  Bet the Marlins Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -119

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-1 in their last 16 games overall and are now tied for the final wild card spot and only one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-15 in their last 19 games overall.  They were shut out in both games of the double-header yesterday and have now scored a total of 2 runs in three games in this series.

Joey Cantillo has been untouchable in his last five starts with a 1.21 ERA while allowing just 4 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has a 5.27 ERA in his last six starts while allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 27 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Steelers/Patriots OVER 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  They are a dead nuts OVER team right now as a result, but we are getting their totals at a discount because of their reputation as a defensive team under Mike Tomlin from previous seasons.

Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.  But the Steelers do have some offensive punch now with QB Aaron Rodgers and WR DK Metcalf that they have been missing.  They scored 34 points and combined for 66 points with the Jets before combining for 48 points with the Seahawks last week.

The Patriots are coming off a shootout of their own in a 33-27 road win at Miami for 60 combined points.  I think their offense is ahead of their defense at this point.  Drake Maye went 19-of-23 for 230 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins.  The defense is allowing 373.5 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play thus far to the Dolphins and Raiders.  They are also without top CB Christian Gonzalez again this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and a suspect defense.  They got one of the best head coaching hires of the offseason in Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career season in Tampa Bay last year.  He's already working wonders with Trevor Lawrence, who has been even better than the numbers would show due to drops by his receivers.

The Jaguars are scoring 26.5 points per game, putting up 389 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense with upgrades at receiver to go alongisde Brian Thomas with Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown.  Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten are a great 1-2 punch in the backfield, and Lawrence has the best offensive line he's ever had in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars blew a 17-10 halftime lead last week and lost to the Bengals, 31-27.  This was even after Joe Burrow went out for the Bengals, allowing Jake Browning to look like Joe Montana against them in the 2H.  Browning threw for 241 yards and accounted for 3 touchdowns against this Jacksonville defense.

I think Houston can finally get its offense going this week.  The Texans have faced two tough defenses in the Rams and Bucs thus far, and this is a step down in class for them.  Reinforcements are on the way as both Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios are expected to make their season debuts for the Texans at receiver.  This might be the deepest receiver room in the NFL, and it should come to life this week.

The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 43 points in four consecutive meetings, and 43 or more in eight of their last 10 meetings as well.  This total of 43.5 is very low for a game involving the Jaguars.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons would be 2-0 if they had the same kicker for both games.  Koo cost them the game against the Bucs in Week 1, and after getting cut his backup Parker Romo made all 5 of his field goal attempts in a 22-6 road win over the Vikings last week.  Romo earned a new contract with his performance, and the Falcons are happy they got that problem shored up quickly because this is a team with very few weaknesses now.

The biggest upgrade was the pass rush this offseason and that came up big sacking the Vikings 6 times.  They held the Vikings to 198 total yards, and this is a legit defense now.  The Falcons have elite numbers averaging 342 yards per game and allowing just 229 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 113 yards per game.  The offense is loaded with playmakers, one of the best young QB's in the game in Michael Pennix Jr, and now the defense is as good as it has been in Atlanta in a long time.

The Carolina Panthers have no shot of keeping this game close with all the injuries they are dealing with.  After losing 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, the Panthers trailed the Cardinals 27-3 last week.  That was before the Cardinals suffered a ton of injuries in their secondary and were playing with all backups when the Panthers came back and made it a game in the 2H.  That won't happen against the Falcons this week.

The Panthers are averaging 4.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.6 yards per play.  That's even with counting all the garbage yards they accumulated against the Cardinals last week.

The Panthers are without two starting offensive linemen in RG Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett.  They are without WR Jalen Coker, and fellow WR Xavier Legette is questionable.  Defensively, they are without LB Patrick Jones II and DT Tershawn Wharton.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and QB Bryce Young doesn't have much of a chance behind this makeshift offensive line and limited playmakers.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +8.5

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  This trend makes sends because teams that start 0-2 are undervalued, while teams like the Packers that start 2-0 are overvalued.  The Packers should not be favored by more than a TD on the road against the Browns this week.

No question the Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They beat the Lions 27-13 in Week 1 and the Commanders 27-18 in Week 2.  But both of those wins came at home, and now the Packers will be hitting the road for the first time this week.

The Cleveland Browns have played a brutal schedule and could easily be 1-1 instead of 0-2 if they made kicks.  They held the Bengals to 7 total yards in the 2H in their 17-16 loss in Week 1.  They held the Ravens to 242 total yards last week in their 41-17 defeat, which will prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.

The Browns actually rank 1st in the NFL allowing 191.5 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play this season.  When you consider they faced two Top 5 QB's in Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, that makes those numbers even more impressive.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is what I want in an underdog catching this many points.  They have outgained the Bengals and Ravens by an average of 133 yards per game despite losing both games.  Talk about misleading.

While the Browns are almost fully healthy heading into this one, the Packers have a ton of injury concerns.  Jordan Love's favorite security blanket in Jayden Reed was just placed on IR.  TE Tucker Kraft who is off to a monster start this season suffered a knee injury in practice and won't be 100% if he plays.  The Packers may find a way to win this game, but it will be a much bigger fight than they bargained for in the Dawg Pound just like it was for the Bengals in Week 1.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +7

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  The Tampa Bay Bucs are overvalued after a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They easily could have lost both games as they needed some Baker Mayfield magic for a couple game-winning drives in the final seconds to beat the Falcons 23-20 and the Texans 20-19.

Now the Bucs are fat and happy after their 2-0 start.  We saw this same thing play out last year with the Bucs opening 2-0 and beating the Lions in Week 2 before falling flat on their faces in a 26-7 home loss to Denver as 6-point favorites in Week 3.  I can easily see history repeating itself here.

The Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now that doesn't warrant them being 7-point favorites.  They will be without 3 starting offensive linemen in LT Tristan Wirfs, RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauch.  That makes this short week even tougher on the Bucs trying to find some chemistry in this makeshift offensive line that is dealing with cluster injuries.

The Bucs also remain without starting WR Chris Godwin, and now star rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has popped up on the injury report this week and is questionable.  Baker Mayfield appeared to sprain his ankle on that game-winning drive against the Texans last week, and he won't be 100%.  The Bucs also lost their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey to an injury last week and now he's on IR.

Tyrod Taylor may actually be an upgrade over Justin Fields.  At least Taylor will take care of the football and is more of a threat as a passer than Fields is.  That's what you want in an underdog.  Taylor is actually 34-24 ATS in his career, including 7-3 ATS in his last 10 starts as an underdog of 7 points or more.  He is one of the better backup QB's in the league and could give the Jets just the spark they need after a tough 0-2 start.

If you just looked at the numbers of these two teams through three weeks you wouldn't know which one is 2-0, and which one is 0-2.  The Jets are only getting outgained 5.3 to 5.6 yards per play, or by 0.3 yards per play.  The Bucs are actually getting outgained 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play, or by 0.5 yards per play.  And you could argue the Jets played the tougher schedule in the Bills and Steelers, while the Bucs beat the Texans and Falcons.  This is a game the Jets could easily win outright.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +2

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Patriots +7.5/+8 and the Seahawks -1/-1.5 this week!

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  

They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.

Aaron Rodgers is getting a lot of hype for throwing 4 TD's against the Jets, but the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.  He was held in check by a much more capable Seahawks defense last week in a 31-17 home loss.  And the numbers are just atrocious for the Steelers overall.  They are averaging 269 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense and allowing 394.5 yards per game and 6.4 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 125.5 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play against two mediocre to bad teams in the Jets and Seahawks.

The Patriots bounced back nicely from a 20-13 home loss to the Raiders in Week 1 with a 33-27 road win at Miami in Week 2.  They have their franchise QB in Drake Maye, who went 19-of-23 passing for 220 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins last week.  Mike Vrabel was the perfect hire for them to get the most out of this young team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -18

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season with five of their losses coming by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

The Trojans are off and running blasting Missouri State 73-13 as 35.5-point favorites in Week 1, cruising to a 59-20 win as 29-point favorites over Georgia Southern in Week 2, and winning 33-17 at Purdue as 20.5-point favorites in their Big Ten opener on the road in Week 3.  Now the Trojans get to play their conference home opener against Michigan State Saturday night, and I expect it to be a blowout win in their favor.

Jordan Maiava finished strong last season and is off to a great start this season and a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy.  Maiava is completing 68.6% of his passes for 989 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for a pair of scores on the ground.  USC has the top numbers in the country offensively scoring 55.0 points per game, averaging 604.3 yards per game and 9.7 yards per play.

Lincoln Riley has this offense humming per usual, while former UCLA defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has made a huge impact.  The Trojans have one of the most improved defenses in the country under Lynn's guidance.  They allow 16.7 points per game, 317.7 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by a whopping 5.0 yards per play, which is the best mark in the country.

This is equally a fade of Michigan State due to all their injuries right now.  They have cluster injuries at receiver and at the skill positions in general.  The Spartans are 0-3 ATS this season.  They beat Western Michigan 23-6, the same WMU team that just lost 38-0 to Illinois last week.  They beat Boston College 42-40 (OT) at home, the same Boston College team that just got upset at Stanford as double-digits favorites last week.  And their 41-24 win over Youngstown State as 24-point favorites last week was pretty lackluster.

The spot is a terrible one for the Spartans.  They have to travel clear out West for a 11:00 PM EST start time and will be a tired team by the 2H not only trying to tame this USC offense, but also with the fact that they aren't used to playing games this late.  This game will finish around 2:30 AM EST.  

We've seen several teams from the midwest and the East struggle in the 2H of these late-night games already this season.  Minnesota lost outright at Cal, Georgia Southern lost 42-14 as favorites at Fresno State, and Boston College was upset as a double-digit favorite at Stanford.  The Spartans will suffer the same fate of those three teams as the Trojans continue to pour it on in the 2H and pull away for a comfortable win and cover.  Bet USC Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -125

Baylor is loaded this season with 18 returning starters including QB Sawyer Robinson, one of the best QB's in the country.  The Bears went 6-0 in their final six games last season before losing to LSU in the bowl game, so their only two losses in their last nine games are to SEC teams.  And that loss to Auburn was very misleading, as was the loss to LSU.  They outgained LSU 507 to 427.

Baylor also outgained Auburn 483 to 415 for the game and 6.7 to 6.0 yards per play.  The difference was Auburn had a KO return TD, and Baylor was stopped on downs twice inside the 10-yard line.  Baylor bounced back from that loss to Auburn with a 48-45 (OT) road win at SMU, which was a 12-team playoff participant last season.  The Bears outgained the Mustangs 601 to 458, or by 143 total yards.

Speaking of 12-team playoff participants.  Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State two weeks ago.  The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21.  That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season.  The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

I faded Arizona State again last week and came up just agonizingly short.  The Sun Devils covered by 0.5 points beating Texas State 34-15 as 18.5-point home favorites only after the Bobcats failed on a pair of 2-point conversion attempts instead of kicking the XP.  The Sun Devils were underwhelming again, only outgaining the Bobcats by 130 total yards and the first downs were even at 21 apiece.

I'm going back to the well here and taking Baylor ML -125 as my 25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR.  I'm very high on Baylor this season and very low on Arizona State.  This will be a great atmosphere for a night game at 7:30 EST on FOX in Waco for the Bears' Big 12 opener.  They are the better team, and their home-field advantage at night isn't being factored in enough to the line.

Baylor can stack the box to stop the run because ASU has no receivers outside Tyson that are a threat.  They can bracket coverage his way as well.  The key here is Baylor is going to score at will taking advantage of Arizona State's weak secondary.  Robertson has already thrown for 1,070 yards and 10 TD in three games and he is a Heisman Trophy sleeper.  He is not only the best QB in the Big 12, but one of the best in the country in my opinion.  I trust him and the Bears to get the job done tonight.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +106 (Game 2)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  The Guardians are better equipped to handle a double-header with the better bullpen.

Logan Allen has owned the Twins, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four career starts against them.  Bailey Ober is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Ober allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Cleveland on August 2nd.  Bet the Guardians in Game 2 Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +150

The San Diego Padres have nothing to play for down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Padres are pretty much locked in to the No. 5 seed in the National League.  They are 5 games clear in the wild card, and 4 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games coming in and are really struggling at the plate, scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Yu Darvish is working is way back from injury for the Padres and it has not gone well for him.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA during this stretch.

Yoendrys Gomez has held his own as a starter for the White Sox this season, going 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven starts with 36 K's in 33 2/3 innings.  I expect him to hold this struggling San Diego lineup in check tonight.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +141

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 8 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 8-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 8-1 in their last nine games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in all eight wins.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as big road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers tonight.

Adam Mazur is coming off one of his best starts of the the season pitching 6 innings without allowing an earned run to the Tigers.  Jack Leiter is 9-9 with a 3.82 ERA in 27 starts for the Rangers in his first full season as a starting and is starting to wear down here down the stretch.  Bet the Marlins Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane +12

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is one of the most underrated in the country.  He led Troy to a 23-4 record in two seasons there, and he went 9-5 in his first season at Tulane and had the Green Wave in the AAC Championship Game.  He has 14 starters back from that team and added in one of the best transfer QB's in the country in Jake Retzlaff from BYU.

Tulane beat Northwestern 23-3 as 4.5-point favorites in Week 1, beat South Alabama 33-31 as 13.5-point road favorites in Week 2, and topped Duke 34-27 as 1.5-point favorites last week.  Retzlaff is hitting on all cylinders already throwing for 522 yards and 2 TD, while rushing for 288 yards and 6 scores as a great dual-threat.  The Green Wave have 12-team playoff aspirations, and an upset win at Ole Miss would look real good on their resume.

While Tulane will be max motivated for a 3rd win over a Power 4 team this season, Ole Miss is in the ultimate flat spot.  The Rebels are coming off consecutive narrow SEC wins by 7 at Kentucky and by 6 at home against Arkansas, and they have an even bigger game on deck next week against LSU that has huge SEC title implications.  This is the game they let down, and that isn't being factored into the line enough.

Ole Miss should have been a playoff team last season.  But the Rebels are nowhwere near as talented or as experienced as that team.  The loss of QB Jaxson Dart and all of their top playmakers is huge on offense, but the bigger losses are on defense where only one starter returns and they lose 11 of their top 13 tacklers.  What was one of the best defenses in the country last season is now one of the worst in the SEC.

Ole Miss allowed 23 points and 359 yards to a Kentucky offense that is one of the worst in the SEC.  The Wildcats also slowed the game down and milked the clock on every snap in their 30-23 home loss to Ole Miss.  The Rebels beat Arkansas 41-35 at home last week, but they probably didn't deserve to win as they allowed 526 total yards to the Razorbacks and were outgained by 45 total yards.

Lane Kiffin has a QB problem on his hands, too.  Trinidad Chambliss looked good against Arkansas last week, but it appears Kiffin is going back to sophomore Austin Simmons who didn't start due to an ankle injury, but then came in after Chambliss got injured.  He re-aggravated the ankle injury and was noticeably limping.  Simmons won't be nearly as mobile if he does get the call, which will limit the offense's potential.  Retzlaff and this Tulane offense are capable of matching Ole Miss score for score just like Arkansas did.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Guardians +109 (Game 1)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

Slade Ceconni has come up clutch here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  This will be his first career start against the Twins, so he has the element of surprise working in his favor.  The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.

Joe Ryan has been rocked for a 7.36 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 22 innings.  The Guardians are 5-0 in their last five games against Ryan.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  Bet the Guardians in Game 1 Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UAB +40

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tennessee.  The Vols had Georgia by the balls last week and let them off the hook.  They allowed the game-tying TD and 2-point conversion in the final minutes, then missed a 43-yard FG for the win at the buzzer.  They went on to lose 44-41 in OT.

I expect Tennessee to be flat as a pancake this week against UAB.  Teams coming off a loss to a Top 15 team when favored by 30 points more more the next week have covered the spread just 29% of the time the last 30 years!  And that wasn't just a Top 15 loss, it was a loss to a rival that had had their number for years.

UAB has the offensive firepower to stay within this inflated number.  UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy last year.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.

The Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game, 454.7 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  Kitna is completing 70% of his passes for 892 yards and 6 TD in three games.  Jevon Jackson has rushed for 277 yards and 6.0 per carry.  Millner and Hooks have combined for 33 receptions, 497 yards and 5 TD receiving.

Tennessee has a lot of injuries on defense right now missing three starters in NG Jaxson Moi, CB Rickey Gibson II and CB Jermod McCoy.  That explains why they gave up 26 points and 377 yards to Syracuse and 44 points and 503 yards to Georgia.  UAB will be able to keep coming and scoring against this overrated Tennessee defense.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/Tennessee OVER 68.5

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Two weeks ago, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total.  That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive.   Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss.   They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

Last week, UAB beat Akron 31-28 for 59 combined points finishing over the closing total of 58.5.  Keep in mind Akron was shut out in its previous two games and then hung 28 points and 441 total yards on this UAB defense, which is terrible again this season allowing 36 points per game, 472.7 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far against suspect competition.

Offensively, the Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game, 454.7 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  Kitna is completing 70% of his passes for 892 yards and 6 TD in three games.  Jevon Jackson has rushed for 277 yards and 6.0 per carry.  Millner and Hooks have combined for 33 receptions, 497 yards and 5 TD receiving.

Tennessee has a lot of injuries on defense right now missing three starters in NG Jaxson Moi, CB Rickey Gibson II and CB Jermod McCoy.  That explains why they gave up 26 points and 377 yards to Syracuse and 44 points and 503 yards to Georgia.  UAB will be able to keep coming and scoring against this overrated Tennessee defense.  

The Vols do have an electric offensive this season with a big upgrade at QB in Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar.  They are averaging 52.7 points per game, 568.7 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  They play at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.3 seconds.  UAB also plays fast ranking 41st at 24.9 seconds per snap.  This feels like a 55-28 win for the Vols sailing OVER this 68.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.