|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-04-13||Texas A&M -3 v. Oklahoma||Top||41-13||Win||100||52 h 44 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -3
The Texas A&M Aggies were very close to winning the SEC West with a chance to play for the national title in Kevin Sumlin
|01-03-13||Idaho v. San Jose St -2.5||64-55||Loss||-109||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Jose State -2.5
The San Jose State Spartans are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. As only a 2.5-point home favorite, I expect them to roll right over the Idaho Vandals Thursday.
San Jose State is off to a solid 7-5 start this season. What is most impressive about this start is the fact that it is 4-1 in true road games with its only loss coming at Kansas by a final of 57-70 as a 27.5-point underdog. That game really showed what this team is capable of. They also have a solid home win over Weber State 68-67 as a 2.5-point dog.
Idaho is simply not a very good team at 5-6 on the season. Its only wins have come against Wisconsin-Green Bay, Cal Davis, Eastern Washington, Walla Walla and Seattle. The Vandals are just 2-4 on the road this season, and they have lost every game they have played against a respectable opponent.
San Jose State is 20-6 ATS after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997. The Spartans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. They want revenge from two losses to Idaho by 8 and 6 points last season. I believe they get it tonight in blowout fashion. Take San Jose State Thursday.
|01-03-13||Minnesota Timberwolves +8 v. Denver Nuggets||101-97||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
15* T'Wolves/Nuggets NBA Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +8
The betting public has jumped all over the Denver Nuggets tonight. This line opened at 6.5 in most places and has already been bet up to 8. I'm going to fade the public and back the Minnesota Timberwolves showing excellent value here tonight.
Denver is overvalued because it just recently put an end to the Los Angeles Cliippers' 17-game winning streak with a 92-78 home victory on Tuesday. That win has the public all over them in this one, and I fully expect the Nuggets to suffer a big emotional letdown after such a huge victory. Also, starting PG Ty Lawson is doubtful to play with an Achilles injury.
Minnesota comes in undervalued after its 84-106 loss at Utah last night. That was arguably the worst game the Timberwolves have played all season, and there's no question they will be motivated to bounce back with a win tonight. I know they are playing a back-to-back, but this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so fatigue won't be a factor.
Minnesota has played Denver very tough in recent meetings. The Nuggets have only beaten the Timberwolves once by more than 7 points in the last six meetings. Minnesota lost 107-113 and 103-101 (OT) in its last two trips to Denver, respectively.
The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and the Timberwolves are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Denver. Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. It is also 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Timberwolves Thursday.
|01-03-13||Kansas State v. Oregon -8||Top||17-35||Win||100||28 h 15 m||Show|
20* K-State/Oregon Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon -8
|01-03-13||Wisc-Milwaukee +18 v. Detroit||59-74||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +18
At 4-10 on the season, the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers are certainly undervalued heading into this showdown with Detroit. The Panthers are also 0-8 on the road this year, where they are getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points/game.
Detroit is overvalued due to its 8-5 start which has included wins in six of its last seven games with its only loss coming at Syracuse. The Titans are also 7-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 15.3 points/game.
A closer look shows that Detroit only has two wins this season by more than 16 points. Those were at home against Northern Michigan (88-53) and Rochester College (102-67), two games where there wasn't a point spread set because they were expected to blow them out.
Only three of Wisconsin-Milwaukee's 10 losses this season have come by more than 16 points. One was a recent 21-point loss at Wisconsin in their last road game. If they can stay within 21 of the Badgers on the road, I have no doubt they can stey within 17 of Detroit away from home.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Thursday.
|01-02-13||UTEP +10.5 v. Colorado St||58-62||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UTEP +10.5
The UTEP Miners should not be catching double-digits against the Colorado State Rams Wednesday. UTEP comes in playing its best basketball of the season having won three straight and five of six overall. Its only loss during this stretch came by a final of 60-62 to a very good UNLV team as a 6.5-point underdog.
Colorado State is off to a very impressive 11-2 start this season, but as a result it is way overvalued heading into this contest Wednesday. It has won five straight, but those five wins have come against North Florida, CS-Bakersfield, Portland, Virginia Tech and Adams State. The Rams will certainly be seeing a step up in competition tonight.
UTEP is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. UTEP is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. Colorado State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet UTEP Wednesday.
|01-02-13||La Salle v. Miami (Fla) -6||59-76||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6
The Miami Hurricanes will be very hungry for a win Wednesday when they host LaSalle. They have lost back-to-back games to Arizona and Indiana State on neutral courts to drop to 8-3 after a hot 8-1 start. I have no doubt they get back on track with a blowout home victory tonight.
Miami is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by 15.6 points/game at home this year. That includes a 67-59 victory over Michigan State and a 77-62 triumph over Detroit. LaSalle has played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and as a result it is overvalued due to its 9-2 start.
LaSalle is 11-24 ATS after having won 4 of its last 5 games since 1997. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 41-17-1 ATS in its last 59 non-conference game. Roll with the Hurricanes Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Louisville +14 v. Florida||Top||33-23||Win||100||123 h 43 m||Show|
25* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +14
The Florida Gators aren
|01-02-13||Missouri State +16 v. Evansville||59-62||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri State +16
The Missouri State Bears are a much better team than their 3-10 record would indicate. They should not be catching 15 points to the Evansville Purple Aces tonight. All 10 of their losses have come by 20 points or less, so they have yet to get really crushed. The Bears come in with confidence after beating Southern Illinois 70-59 in as a 5-point dog in their Missouri Valley opener on December 30th.
Meanwhile, Evansville is reeling after back-to-back losses to Butler and Creighton by a combined 25 points. It is just 7-6 on the season with few blowout wins on its resume. It has beaten Oakland City, Miami Ohio and Tennessee Tech by more than 15 points, but that's not saying much. The Purple Aces also beat Yale by 10, Western Illinois by 5, Tennessee Tech by 12 and Alabama State by 13. I believe Missouri State is better than every team that Evansville has beaten.
This play falls into a system that is 156-99 (61.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (MISSOURI ST) - off an upset win as an underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season. Take Missouri State Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -3.5||79-102||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -3.5
The Toronto Raptors continue going under the radar despite being one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won six of their last seven games overall, including a 123-88 victory at Orlando last time out on December 29th. That means they've had three days' rest heading into this one.
While the Raptors are well-rested, the Portland Trail Blazers come into this game on a back-to-back. They won at New York 105-100 as a 9.5-point underdog, which was a huge win for them. I look for the Blazers to suffer a big letdown here tonight as they simply aren't able to get up emotionally for Toronto after that win inside Madison Square Garden last night.
Portland is 5-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.8 points/game. Toronto is 7-5 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points/game. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Orlando Magic||96-94||Loss||-105||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
The Chicago Bulls will be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been all season. As a result, I'll back them as only a 3.5-point favorite over the lowly Orlando Magic. Chicago has lost three of its last four while going 0-4 ATS in the process.
This recent run has the Bulls way undervalued heading into this contest. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season with an 81-91 home loss to Charlotte, allowing the Bobcats to put an end to their 18-game losing streak. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the best in the business in getting his players to respond from a bad defeat.
Orlando is in a world of hurt right now after losing second-leading scorer Glen Davis (16.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder strain. Now, guards Jameer Nelson (hip) and E'Twuan Moore (elbow) have missed the past two games, and each is questionable to return tonight. Orlando has lost six straight coming in, including a 110-112 overtime loss to Miami last time out. I look for the Magic to suffer a hangover from that tough loss to the rival Heat and drop their 7th straight tonight.
The Bulls are 45-22-2 ATS in their last 69 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Chicago has won six of its last seven meetings with Orlando. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Sacramento Kings v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3||97-94||Loss||-110||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -3
The Cleveland Cavaliers are hungry for a win tonight. They have lost two straight in heartbreaking fashion to Atlanta (94-102) and Brooklyn (100-103) in the closing seconds. I look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly Sacramento Kings tonight and to pick up a blowout home victory.
Cleveland comes in on three days' rest having last played on December 29th in Brooklyn. Meanwhile, Sacramento will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. The Kings lost 97-103 at Detroit last night. They won't be able to match the intensity of the well-rested Cavaliers in this one. The Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
Sacramento is just 1-13 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 10.7 points/game away from home this year. The Kings are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|01-01-13||Philadelphia 76ers +9 v. Los Angeles Lakers||103-99||Win||100||17 h 51 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +9
The Los Angeles Lakers are simply laying too many points to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have not done well in the role of the big favorite over the last several seasons because they always tend to play down to their competition.
Philadelphia is undervalued because it has lost two straight and eight of its last 10 games overall. Each of its last three losses have come on the road by 7 points or less to Brooklyn, Golden State, and Portland. It has won two of its last five with a 99-80 home win over Atlanta, and a 99-89 triumph on the road at Memphis, both playoff teams. This recent stretch certainly has the 76ers motivated for a win here tonight.
The Lakers are overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall. That includes a 104-87 home victory over the hapless Portland Trail Blazers last time out. They could be looking ahead to their game against the Los Angeles Clippers next, who have won 17 straight games.
Los Angeles is 9-26 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 2-14 (88%) ATS in its last 16 Tuesday games. The Lakers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 7-1 ATS (88%) in the last 8 meetings. Take the Lakers Tuesday.
|01-01-13||Wisconsin +7 v. Stanford||14-20||Win||100||95 h 13 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Stanford Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +7
The Badgers will at least have a familiar face guiding the program in in former head coach Barry Alvarez. With his credentials, he certainly demands respect from his players. He
|01-01-13||Michigan v. South Carolina -5||28-33||Push||0||91 h 13 m||Show|
15* Michigan/South Carolina Outback Bowl No-Brainer on South Carolina -5
The Gamecocks were just one loss away from playing for the SEC Championship and a shot at a national title. They beat SEC East champ Georgia 35-7, but followed that up with back-to-back road losses to LSU and Florida for their only setbacks of the season. They only lost 21-23 at LSU, and they gave up just 183 total yards to Florida in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Michigan already played one SEC team this season, and it was not pretty. It lost to Alabama 14-41 on a neutral field on September 1st in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. The Wolverines found themselves down 31-7 at halftime, and they rushed for just 69 yards on 2.4 per carry as a team.
|01-01-13||Yale +20.5 v. Iowa State||70-80||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +20.5
The Yale Bulldogs are showing awesome value as a 20.5-point underdog to the Iowa State Cyclones on Tuesday, January 1st. There's no question that some of these Iowa State players had a little too much fun last night, and they won't be wanting to play at 1:00 EST this afternoon.
This is a huge letdown spot for the Cyclones considering they open Big 12 play next. In fact, they will open conference action with Kansas, which is the team favored to win the Big 12. They will be overlooking Yale enough in this one to not cover the inflated number.
Yale is battle-tested coming in. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to Nevada (75-85) as a 12-point dog, and to St Mary's (62-78) as a 22-point dog. This team is certainly better than its 4-9 record would indicate as eight of its nine losses have come by 16 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (YALE) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. Bet Yale Tuesday.
|01-01-13||Northwestern v. Mississippi State +1.5||Top||34-20||Loss||-110||90 h 13 m||Show|
25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +1.5
This is the most talented team the Bulldogs have had in the Dan Mullen era. There
|12-31-12||Clemson v. LSU UNDER 59.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||75 h 16 m||Show|
25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Clemson/LSU UNDER 59.5
The UNDER in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl between Clemson and LSU represents my strongest college football total for the entire 2012-13 bowl season. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this number by more than two touchdowns.
LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, and it is more than capable of shutting down this Clemson offense Monday. The Tigers are only allowing 16.9 points/game this season while ranking 8th in the country in total defense at 296.2 yards/game.
While LSU has been dominant defensively, its has been sub-par on the other side of the ball. It is only scoring 15.5 points/game on the road this season while ranking 74th in the country in total offense at 387.2 yards/game.
Clemson played a defense in its season finale similar to the one that it will face in the Chick Fil A Bowl. It lost to South Carolina 17-27 for 44 combined points in a game that had a total set of 60.5. It was held to just 328 total yards in the loss. I look for a similar combined score in this contest against LSU.
Clemson is 8-0 to the UNDER in all dome games since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 34.9 points/game in this spot. LSU is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 40.1 points/game in this situation. These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER over since 1992. Bet the UNDER in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Monday.
|12-31-12||Brooklyn Nets +9.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||73-104||Loss||-105||10 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +9.5
The Brooklyn Nets needed a spark and they've gotten it with a coaching change. Avery Johnson has been fired, and interim head coach P.J. Carlesimo has taken over. He has led the Nets to back-to-back wins by a combined 19 points.
I look for the Nets to give the San Antonio Spurs a run for their money tonight. The Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so this is a very tough situation for them.
This play falls into a system that is 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
Brooklyn is way better than it has shown in recent weeks, and as a result it is undervalued heading into this contest tonight. Roll with the Nets Monday.
|12-31-12||Gonzaga v. Oklahoma State -1.5||69-68||Loss||-106||9 h 55 m||Show|
15* Gonzaga/Oky State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State -1.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight. This is a team that is 10-1 on the season with solid neutral court wins over Tennessee (62-45) and NC State (76-56) already.
Oklahoma State is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.7 points/game at home this year. It has been playing tremendous defense this season, limiting opponents to 55.5 points/game and 35.8% shooting overall.
Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the Cowboys. Bet Oklahoma State Monday
|12-31-12||Georgia Tech v. USC UNDER 64||21-7||Win||100||70 h 46 m||Show|
15* Georgia Tech/USC Sun Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 64
The books have set the bar too high in this Sun Bowl showdown between Georgia Tech and USC. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that I foresee neither team scoring more than 31 points.
USC faced some very good rushing teams this season as their opponents averaged 180 yards and 4.4/carry on the ground in 2012. The Trojans clearly have an above-average run D considering they held their opponents to 156 yards/game and 4.0/carry. That's huge considering Georgia Tech runs the triple-option and almost exclusive relies on the run.
USC had a solid offense this season under the guidance of quarterback Matt Barkley. However, Barkley will miss this game due to a shoulder injury, meaning that Max Wittek will get a second straight start in his place.
Things did not go well for Wittek in his first career start as he went just 14 of 23 passing for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in a 13-22 home loss to Notre Dame in USC's season finale.
Georgia Tech came up with arguably its best defensive performance of the season in the ACC Championship. It held Florida State to just 21 points and 328 total yards while forcing three turnovers in a 15-21 loss. I look for it to build off of that performance and to keep Wittek in company in check.
Georgia Tech is 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 December games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in the Sun Bowl Monday.
|12-30-12||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 196||96-107||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195.5
This is a home and home situation for Utah and Los Angeles tonight. These teams just played in Utah on Friday as the Clippers squeaked away with a 116-114 victory. Both teams were on fire as the Clippers shot 49.4%, while the Jazz shots 47.9%. There's no way either team shoots that well again.
I look for the familiarity of these teams having just played two nights ago favors a low-scoring game. Both teams know what one another likes to do offensively, which will allow the defenses to make the proper adjustments to stop it. That high-scoring game Friday has provided is with some excellent line value on the UNDER in this one.
The Clippers have allowed less than 100 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall. In fact, they have yielded 85 or less in six of their last eight contests. The Jazz have scored less than 100 points in eight of their last nine, and they have allowed less than 100 in six of their last nine.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-3 in Clippers last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-30-12||Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins -3||18-28||Win||100||78 h 37 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Redskins NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -3
The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They have won six straight games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the process. After a 3-6 start, this team is simply on a mission to make the playoffs and win the NFC East. This is certainly a team that nobody wants to play right now, and one that won't be stopped Sunday.
Dallas had its momentum stopped with a 31-34 home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week in a game it really thought it had to win to make the playoffs. That was just its second loss in seven games with the other coming at home to the Redskins by a final of 31-38 on Thanksgiving Day.
Washington really dominated that first meeting with the Cowboys in a game that was much more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. This game was essentially over at halftime as the Redskins took a 28-3 lead into intermission. They kind of just coasted the rest of the way, allowing the Cowboys to make it respectable in garbage time with the outcome already decided.
The Redskins are 15-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Washington is 19-4 ATS versus poor rushing teams that average less than 90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC East opponents.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall, 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NFC opponents, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 December games, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings with the Cowboys. These six trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the home team. Roll with the Redskins Sunday.
Recommendation: Buy the Redskins to -3
|12-30-12||Green Bay Packers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||34-37||Loss||-120||74 h 44 m||Show|
25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3
The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last few months. They have gone 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall to make backers a ton of money at the pay window. Rarely will you get them as a favorite of 3 points or less, so this is certainly a generous line from oddsmakers.
Green Bay has been the better team on both sides of the ball this season. It is scoring 26.6 points per game while ranking 13th in the league in total offense at 356.4 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.9 points per game while ranking 10th in the league in total defense at 329.6 yards per game.
Despite being 9-6 on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by 18.9 yards per game. This is one of the most overrated teams in the league, and one that isn't nearly as good as its record. Green Bay beat Minnesota 23-14 in the first meeting despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson.
There's no way the Vikings get another 200-yard day from AP as the Packers make the necessary adjustments to stop the run. And when the Packers do stop the run, the Vikings will be in a world of hurt considering they rank dead last in the NFL in passing offense at 168.3 yards per game.
This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Green Bay is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with Minnesota. All five wins have come by 4 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game. That includes a 23-14 home victory in their first meeting this season as the Packers outgained the Vikings 435-359.
The Packers are 10-1 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 26.4 points per game. Bet the Packers Sunday.
Recommendation: Buy the Packers to -3
|12-30-12||Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions||26-24||Loss||-100||70 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bears -3
The Bears are the only team with something to play for in this one. They are still fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC at 9-6 on the season. They would clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Minnesota loss. Considering the Vikings play the Green Bay Packers in Week 17, the Bears know that there
|12-29-12||Boston Celtics v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 195||83-101||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. I look for neither team to top 95 points in this low-scoring, defensive battle.
Boston will be motivated following one of its worst losses of the season. It fell 77-106 at the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, and off sch a poor defensive performance, there's no question it will be getting after it on that side of the ball tonight.
Golden State is certainly an improved defensive team this season as it is allowing less than 100 points/game this year. It is coming off two of its best defensive performances of the season with a 94-83 win at Utah, and a 96-89 home victory over Philadelphia.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 Saturday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-29-12||TCU -2.5 v. Michigan State||16-17||Loss||-110||52 h 49 m||Show|
15* TCU/Michigan State Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl BAILOUT on TCU -2.5
The Horned Frogs have the better offense in this one. They put up 29.3 points per game this season while ranking 61st in the country in total offense at 397.0 yards per game. Michigan State is scoring just 20.2 points per game while ranking 87th in total offense at 370.3 yards per game.
The Spartans lost their three offensive stars from last season in Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin.
|12-29-12||Ohio v. Oklahoma -3||63-74||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last season, and this is going to be one of the best teams in the Big 12 this season.
Oklahoma is off to a solid 7-3 start, but it is coming off a one-point loss to SF Austin State. It will be highly motivated to bounce back from that loss, and it is undervalued because of it.
Ohio is 8-4 this season, but a closer look at its losses shows that this team clearly has problems. It has road losses to Robert Morris (76-84), Memhis (58-84) and UMass (76-85) as well as a home loss to Richmond.
The Bobcats are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 14.3 points/game. They don't have a good win yet this season. Ohio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-29-12||George Mason v. South Florida -2.5||57-61||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2.5
The South Florida Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. They made a great run to the NCAA Tournament and actually won a game there last year, and they have several key pieces back from that team.
The Bulls have opened 7-3 this season while winning five of their last six contests. The includes a 6-2 mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points/game.
George Mason is just 7-4 on the year. It has losses to Bucknell, New Mexico, Maryland and Northern Iowa. It is coming off a big win at Richmond, but I believe that victory has it overvalued heading into this one.
South Florida is 16-4 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. George Mason is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a S.U. win. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Take South Florida Saturday.
|12-29-12||Oregon State -3 v. Texas||27-31||Loss||-115||48 h 9 m||Show|
15* Oregon State/Texas Alamo Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That is evident by the fact that they are an impressive 8-4 against the spread in all games, making backers a lot of money at the pay window this year. Their only three losses came on the road against Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points, and at home against Oregon.
Texas is not playing well coming into this game having dropped two straight against TCU and Kansas State. It managed a combined 37 total points in the losses while committing seven turnovers. It continues to struggle at the quarterback position as head coach Mack Brown keeps going back and forth between David Ash and Case McCoy.
Oregon State is a sound football team on both sides of the ball. It is scoring 33.0 points per game while ranking 34th in the country in total offense at 442.7 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.7 points per game while ranking 33rd in the land in total defense at 353.7 yards per game.
The biggest strength on the Beavers
|12-29-12||West Virginia v. Syracuse +4||Top||14-38||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
20* WVU/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Syracuse +4
The Syracuse Orange have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They gave away some games early, but really came on strong late. They won three straight games to close out the season with a blowout 45-26 home victory over Louisville, followed by impressive road wins at Missouri and Temple. Louisville won the Big East and will be playing in a BCS bowl.
A closer look at the numbers indicates that the Orange are one of the better teams in the country. They rank 21st in the land in total offense at 473.4 yards per game and a respectable 51st in total defense at 385.1 yards per game. They have a huge edge on defense considering West Virginia ranks just 110th in total yards allowed at 469.6.
Syracuse has a mental edge over former Big East rivalry West Virginia having won each of the last two meetings over the past two seasons. It won 19-14 on the road as a 13.5-point underdog in 2010, then came back with an even more impressive 49-23 home victory as a 14-point dog in 2011. Ryan Nassib threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns in the win, and he
|12-29-12||Virginia Tech +10 v. Brigham Young||71-97||Loss||-106||4 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +10
This line is an overreaction from the results of last game for both teams. Virginia Tech suffered its worst loss of the season 52-88 to Colorado State, while BYU rolled over Northern Arizona 84-54.
At 9-3 on the season, I still believe Virginia Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country. BYU doesn't really have a good win all season. It lost to Florida State (70-88), Notre Dame (68-78), Iowa State (62-83) and Baylor (64-79). The Cougars have no business being a double-digit favorite in this one.
BYU is 0-6 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-17 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 1-10 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-28-12||Toronto Raptors v. New Orleans Hornets -2.5||104-97||Loss||-107||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2.5
The New Orleans Hornets are way undervalued due to their recent 11-game losing streak. Seven of those 11 losses came by 7 points or less, so they just weren't getting the breaks. They beat the Orlando Magic 97-94 last time out on Wednesday to put an end to the skid, and I look for them to go on a nice run here with the Raptors and Bobcats up next.
Toronto comes into this game way overvalued after having won five of its last six games overall. Four of those wins came at home against the lowly Magic, Pistons, Rockets and Mavericks. They also won at Cleveland, but were torched 80-100 at San Antonio on Wednesday to put an end to their five-game winning streak. They should be a much bigger dog tonight on the road against the Hornets.
The Raptors are just 2-15 SU & 6-11 ATS on the road this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 10.5 points/game away from home thus far in 2012. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|12-28-12||Miami Heat v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191.5||99-109||Loss||-105||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 191.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. Miami is going to be without second-leading scorer Dwyane Wade (suspension), and it could be without their best shooter Ray Allen (shoulder), who is listed as questionable.
A look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Miami beat Detroit 98-75 on April 8th in their most recent showdown for 173 combined points. The Heat topped the Pistons 88-73 for 161 combined points in their previous meeting on March 23rd.
Detroit has combined for 188 or fewer points with five of its last six opponents. The only exception was a double-overtime loss at Atlanta last time out. They combined for 165 points with Indiana, 164 with the Los Angeles Clippers, 188 with Toronto, 168 with Washington and 185 again with Washington.
The Pistons are 18-4 to the UNDER in their last 22 games after allowing 120 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Heat last 13 Friday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-28-12||Charlotte Bobcats v. Brooklyn Nets -9.5||81-97||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -9.5
The Brooklyn Nets have just made a coaching change amidst their poor run of 10 losses in their last 13 games. Avery Johnson has been fired, replaced by veteran head coach P.J. Carlesimo. I believe this move will spark new life into the Nets and give them a big boost tonight.
This is still one of the most talented teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before the right coach puts it all together. The Nets have an excellent chance of working out the kinks against a Charlotte Bobcats team that is arguably the worst in the league once again in 2012-13.
Charlotte has lost 16 straight games heading into this contest. It is just 7-21 on the season, including 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 road games. It is getting outscored by an average of 14.3 points/game away from home this season.
The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Charlotte is 11-32 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 3-16 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Nets Friday.
|12-28-12||Rutgers v. Virginia Tech -2||Top||10-13||Win||100||48 h 8 m||Show|
20* Rutgers/VA Tech Russell Athletic Bowl No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -2
The Hokies simply underachieved this season after coming into the season with lofty expectations. They did manage to rebound down the stretch, winning their final two games against Boston College and Virginia to become bowl eligible. It would have been three in a row if not for a last-second loss to Florida State by a final of 22-28, which was a game that showed what this team is capable of.
Rutgers is deflated following two straight losses to close out the season. It played Louisville for all the marbles in its season finale on November 29th, but blew a double-digit lead to fall 17-20. That loss cost the Scarlet Knights a trip to the Sugar Bowl against Florida. These players will have hard time getting motivated to play in the Russell Athletic Bowl after letting such a big opportunity slip by.
|12-28-12||Ohio +7 v. Louisiana Monroe||45-14||Win||100||45 h 37 m||Show|
15* Ohio/ULM Independence Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7
Following three straight losses, there
|12-27-12||Boston Celtics +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-106||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +8.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak. There's no question that it's an impressive run, but now is the time to fade them against a gritty Boston Celtics team that will simply want this one more.
Boston is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season, and it should be getting more respect than it is from oddsmakers because of it. The Celtics went into Brooklyn and came away with a 93-76 road victory on Christmas Day. They limited the Nets to 40.6 percent shooting while forcing 20 turnovers.
Boston has won three of its last four meetings with Los Angeles. It is 2-0 in its last two visits to Los Angeles, including a 94-85 victory as a 5.5-point underdog in the most recent meeting between these teams. In fact, it hasn't lost any of its last five trips to L.A. by more than 2 points.
The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. Take the Celtics Thursday.
|12-27-12||Baylor +3 v. UCLA Bruins||49-26||Win||100||29 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3
The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it
|12-27-12||Cincinnati v. Duke +8||Top||48-34||Loss||-110||25 h 8 m||Show|
20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +8
The Blue Devils are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this season. This is their first trip to a bowl game since 1994. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his best team in five years with the program, and that really showed this season. These players want to be here more than the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati had high hopes coming into the season of winning the Big East to play in a BCS bowl game. That didn
|12-26-12||Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz UNDER 204||94-83||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 204
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz. The biggest reason I like this UNDER is the fact that Utah is without starting point guard Mo Williams, who is averaging 12.9 points and 6.7 assists per game.
Without Williams, Utah's offense won't be very efficient. They'll slow it down even more and look to get the ball inside to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap one just about every possession. The Jazz have been playing in many low-scoring games of late. In fact, each of their last seven contests have seen 195 or less combined points.
Golden State is coming off three straight high-scoring games, including a 115-118 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in overtime last time out. That's a big reason why this total has been inflated tonight. I look for Utah to control to the tempo at home and for this game to be slowed down to a snail's pace without Williams out there running the show. The Jazz are allowing just 94.3 points/game at home this year.
The Warriors are 15-4 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 15-4 to the UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 28-9 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.
These teams have combined for 203 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings overall, including 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Utah dating back to 2009. The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-26-12||Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs -13||80-100||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -13
The San Antonio Spurs have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They are 10-2 at home where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.1 points/game. That includes a 129-91 victory over Dallas last time out on December 23rd, and this team is even more dangerous when given a lot of rest.
Toronto is overvalued right now due to its 5-game winning streak. Those five victories came over the Mgaic, Pistons, Cavs, Rockets and Mavericks with four of them coming at home. The Raptors have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 2-14 SU & 6-10 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 10.0 points/game.
The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. San Antonio is 20-5-2 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 35-13-4 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 36-14-3 ATS in its last 53 home games. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|12-26-12||Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 57||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||68 h 7 m||Show|
20* CMU/WKU Pizza Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57
I look for a shootout in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky Wednesday. This game will be played inside a dome at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. That means the scoring conditions will be optimal for these two solid offenses.
Central Michigan really picked up the pace at the end of the season offensively, scoring 30 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 scores.
Western Kentucky put up an average of 28.7 points/game this season. RB Antonio Andrews will get plenty of touches as he makes a bid to set a single-season NCAA record for all-purpose yards. Andrews, who rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 touchdowns, also has 957 return yards and 2,977 overall. The junior needs 274 yards to surpass Barry Sanders' mark of 3,250 from his 1988 Heisman Trophy-winning season.
While the Hilltoppers did have a solid defense with three players earning all-conference honors. However, the anchor of that unit - Sun Belt defensive player of the year and defensive end Quanterus Smith - is out due to a knee injury suffered Nov. 17 against Louisiana-Lafayette. He had an FBS-leading 1.25 sacks per game and 12 1/2 overall in 10 games.
Western Kentucky gave up an average of 31.5 points/game over their last four games heading into the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan gave up 33.3 points/game this season while ranking 93rd in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).
Central Michigan is 7-0 to the OVER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Chippewas are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 6-0 to the OVER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Wednesday.
|12-26-12||New Orleans Hornets +3 v. Orlando Magic||97-94||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +3
The New Orleans Hornets are highly motivated for a win tonight. They blew a 21-point lead to Indiana last time out to lose 75-81 as the Pacers handed them their 11th straight defeat. They have simply not been able to get the breaks to go their way as seven of those 11 losses have come by 7 points or less.
A Christmas Break is just what this New Orleans needed to regroup. While the Hornets are almost back at full strength health-wise, the Magic are not. They just loss Glen Davis to a shoulder injury for the 4-6 weeks. That is a huge blow considering Davis was second on the team in scoring (16.0 PPG) and second in rebounding (7.9 RPG).
New Orleans is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games following 4 or more consecutive losses. The Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog. Orlando is 0-7 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet New Orleans Wednesday.
|12-25-12||Denver Nuggets +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers||100-112||Loss||-107||24 h 34 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +7
The Denver Nuggets are showing great value as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Tuesday. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to its current 13-game winning streak and counting. The Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their mediocre 15-13 start against an absolutely brutal schedule.
Denver has played 19 of its first 28 games on the road this season. They've done an excellent job of posting a winning record despite that schedule, and they are playing their best basketball of late. The Nuggets have won four of their last five, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They would love nothing more than to put an end to the Clippers' winning streak.
The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|12-25-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat UNDER 206||97-103||Win||100||19 h 40 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on UNDER 206
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat are very familiar with one another after playing in the NBA Finals this past June. Their series went to five games with Miami winning the final four to win the championship. Four of those five meeting saw 202 or less combined points, so they were typically low-scoring. I look for this rematch in the regular season to follow suit with less than 206 combined points by game's end.
Both teams have been very solid defensively. Oklahoma City is giving up 96.2 points/game overall, and it are combineing with their opponents to average 196.9 points/game on the road this season. Miami is giving up 97.4 points/game overall, and it is combining with its opponents to average 200.8 points/game in all games this year. As you can see, both teams are combining with their opponents to average well less than this posted total.
Miami is 18-4 to the UNDER after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma City is 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat's last 5 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-25-12||New York Knicks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 214.5||Top||94-100||Win||100||16 h 55 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Lakers Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers. These teams are very familiar with one another after playing each other recently. New York beat Los Angeles 116-107 on December 13th less than two weeks ago. Because of that high-scoring affair, oddsmakers have inflated this total in the rematch, which I anticipate to be much more lower scoring.
Both teams know how to defend, especially the Knicks, who are giving up just 96.5 points/game on the season. The Lakers have been defending well at home this year, limiting opponents to just 96.1 points/game. They are scoring 101.5 points/game at home, so they are combining with their opponents to average 197.6 points/game. New York is combining with its opponents to average 198.7 points/game on the road this year. As you can see, both numbers are well below the posted total in this one.
The UNDER is 42-19-1 in Lakers last 62 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Lakers are 15-5 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-24-12||SMU v. Fresno State -11.5||Top||43-10||Loss||-101||21 h 52 m||Show|
20* Fresno/SMU Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on Fresno State -11.5
The Bulldogs have been the best team in the country at the pay window this season. Not only did they go 9-3 and while clinching a share of the Mountain West title, they also went an incredible 11-1 against the spread in the process. This team has certainly been going under the radar all season.
They are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game, so they
|12-23-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1||13-42||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +1
The Seahawks have a ton to play for in this one. They would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the season were to end today, and they are trying to fend off several 8-6 teams in their conference. They can also pull to within one-half game of the 49ers for the NFC West division lead with a victory heading into Week 17.
Seattle has been playing its best football in the second half of the season, especially over the last two weeks. It has won five of its last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits. That includes a 58-0 home victory over Arizona on December 9th, and a 50-17 triumph in Toronto against Buffalo last Sunday.
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread at home this season, yet they are an underdog in this one. They are scoring 30.2 points per game and allowing just 11.5 points per game at home this year. As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.7 points per game inside of CenturyLink Field in 2012.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home teams (SEATTLE)
|12-23-12||Chicago Bears -5 v. Arizona Cardinals||28-13||Win||100||68 h 26 m||Show|
15* Bears/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -5
The Chicago Bears are showing arguably their best value of the season Sunday as only a 5-point favorite at Arizona. The Bears are undervalued right now due to a stretch of poor play heading into this one, while the Cardinals are overvalued after a big win last week.
The Bears have lost five of their last six games overall, but all six of those contests came against playoff contenders. They played the Texans, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks and Vikings twice during this stretch. With so much still to play for, there's no question the they will be laying it all on the line Sunday.
Finally, Chicago gets a break in its schedule in Week 16 against the hapless Arizona Cardinals (5-9). This is the same Cardinals' team that had lost nine games in a row before a 38-10 home victory over the Detroit Lions last week. They don't have much reason to show up for this game with nothing other than pride to play for.
That win over the Lions was far from the blowout that it appeared on the scoreboard. Arizona only gained 196 total yards while giving up 312 total yards. It's really hard to score 38 points when only gaining 196 yards, but the Lions simply gift-wrapped the Cardinals most of their points by committing four turnovers.
That's important considering Arizona is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 18.9 points per game. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|12-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5||92-95||Loss||-110||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5
The Brooklyn Nets are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday. They have lost three straight and eight of 10 coming in to sit just one game over .500 on the season. There's no question that they want to put an end to this skid.
Brooklyn has had plenty of time to stew over its recent losing streak. It hasn't played since Wednesday, December 19th so it has had three days' rest in between games. The Nets have had time to regroup and prepare for the 76ers, which will make the difference in this one.
Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Philly is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These four trends combine for a 23-2 (92%) System backing Brooklyn. Roll with the Nets Sunday.
|12-23-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3||Top||13-10||Loss||-115||66 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Trailing the Bengals by one game for the 6th and final wild-card spot in the AFC, this is a must-win game for the Steelers. A loss and they would be eliminated from postseason contention. This team has been great in these situations while winning two Super Bowls under Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh simply owns this series with Cincinnati. It has won five straight meetings while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Dating back further, it has won 14 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.
The Steelers topped the Bengals 24-17 on the road in their first meeting of the season on October 21st. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 for the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, while Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards in the win.
Pittsburgh is 46-23 ATS in its last 69 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game in this spot.
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 8-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers. These four trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|12-23-12||New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys -2.5||34-31||Loss||-110||65 h 25 m||Show|
15* Saints/Cowboys NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5
The Cowboys are playing their best football of the season right now when the games have mattered most. Looking dead to the water after a 3-5 start, Dallas has reeled off five wins in its last six games to get to 8-6 on the season. It is now tied with Washington and New York atop the NFC East division.
At 6-8 on the season, the New Orleans Saints do not have much to play for. Their only real motivation is to play for pride and for the role of spoiler. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have everything to play for with the division title or a wild-card berth at stake.
Dallas has the superior defense in this one by far. It ranks a respectable 14th in the league in total defense at 340.3 yards per game allowed. New Orleans is yielding 27.1 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 433.6 yards per game. The Cowboys will come up with more stops in this one, which will be the difference.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS)
|12-23-12||Minnesota Vikings v. Houston Texans -7.5||23-6||Loss||-110||65 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -7.5
The Houston Texans have everything to play for in this one. With a win against the overrated Minnesota Vikings Sunday, the Texans will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That means they are playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Minnesota comes in way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams. Both of those wins were gift-wrapped to the Vikings considering Chicago outgained them 438-248, while St. Louis outgained them 432-322. The Vikings won't get away with such sloppy defense against the Texans this time around.
Stopping Adrian Peterson is the key to stopping Minnesota. In addition to owning the AFC's best record, Houston (12-2) has the fifth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 93.2 yards per game and a league-low three rushing touchdowns. The Vikings rank last in the NFL in passing offense (168.1 yards/game), so this is a terrible match-up for them.
Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 17.5 points/game. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 17.9 points/game. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|12-22-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors||118-115||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK
The Los Angeles Lakers come in fresh and ready to go. They will be working on three days' rest since last beating the Charlotte Bobcats at home on December 18th. This extra practice time will do wonders for the Lakers as they continue to try and get down Mike D'Antoni's system.
While the Lakers come in fresh, the Golden State Warriors will be extremely exhausted. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days, and their 6th game in 9 days tonight. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Lakers in this one.
Los Angeles has simply owned this series with Golden State. It has won 17 of the last 18 meetings dating back to 2008, winning 94% of the time. Given the situation and their dominance in this series, the Lakers should be a heavy favorite tonight and they're not.
This play falls into a system that is 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.
|12-22-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5||31-18||Loss||-110||48 h 28 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Lions NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +4.5
This line is simply be an overreaction from what happened last week. Obviously, the Falcons blew out the defending Super Bowl champs, while the Lions were upset in blowout fashion by one of the worst teams in the league.
|12-22-12||Western Kentucky +21.5 v. Louisville||55-78||Loss||-106||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +21.5
The Louisville Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot here Saturday in this neutral court showdown with Western Kentucky played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. They have arch rival Kentucky on deck and will be looking ahead to that contest.
Western Kentucky is a solid team at 8-4. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to a pair of very good teams in Murray State and Virginia Commonwealth. Those two games have the Hilltoppers battle-tested an hungry for a victory heading into this showdown with Louisville.
This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 20 or more points (W KENTUCKY) - after a blowout loss by 30 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.
|12-22-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets +1||96-121||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +1
The Houston Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Memphis Grizzlies. They have won four of their last five games overall, which includes a 109-96 victory at New York.
While the Rockets come in on two days' rest, the Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. There's no question that Houston will be the fresher team, and with the way it is playing right now, it should be laying points instead of being the underdog.
Houston is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 6.3 points/game. Bet the Rockets Saturday.
|12-22-12||Bradley v. Virginia Tech -2.5||65-66||Loss||-102||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They should be a heavier favorite tonight over Bradley in this neutral court showdown at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
The Hokies opened 7-0 before losing two of their last three games to West Virginia and Georgia Southern by a combined 6 points. That loss to Southern last time out is really not sitting well with Virginia Tech, and I look for its players to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.
While Virginia Tech has had six days to stew over that loss to Georgia Southern and prepare for Bradley, the Braves are working on little rest. This will be the 3rd game in 6 days for Bradley, which puts it at a huge disadvantage in rest and preparation.
The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Hokies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-22-12||Washington +6 v. Boise State||Top||26-28||Win||100||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Washington/Boise State Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Washington Huskies played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos did this season, and they are more battle-tested heading into this contest because of it. This will arguably be Boise State
|12-21-12||Southern Methodist -2.5 v. Wagner||53-63||Loss||-106||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -2.5
The SMU Mustangs have been going under the radar this season. They are coached by former NBA great Larry Brown, who is quietly turning this program around. Brown has his Mustangs off to an 8-3 start this season.
Wagner doesn't have near the talent of SMU, and it should not be betting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its only wins this season have come against NC Central, Princeton, Hofstra and Coppin State. It is no match for the Mustangs in this one.
What is most impressive about SMU's 8-3 start is the fact that it has already played seven road games in its first 11 contests. It has won four of those road games, including a 73-47 win at Hofstra. As stated before, Wagner also played Hofstra, winning by a narrow margin of 52-44.
Common opponents are a good way to compare teams, and SMU is clearly the superior squad when you look at their meetings with Hofstra. This contest on a neutral court won't even be close folks. Take SMU Friday.
|12-21-12||Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks UNDER 188||110-106||Loss||-110||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Knicks NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 188
This game between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will be a low-scoring affair between two of the best defensive teams in the league. I don't expect either team to eclipse 95 points in this one.
Chicago is allowing just 90.3 points per game this season while holding opponents to 42.4% shooting. However, it is scoring a mere 92.8 points per game on 44.1% shooting. As you can see, it is combining with its opponents to average 183.1 points per game this season. New York is yielding 94.5 points per game at home.
Recent history between these teams shows that we are getting tremendous value with this UNDER tonight. Each of their last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points at the end of regulation. That includes a 93-85 home victory for Chicago on December 8th with 178 combined points in their lone meeting this season.
The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. These two trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 35-16 in Bills last 51 games overall, and 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-21-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics UNDER 191.5||99-94||Loss||-110||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 191.5
This total has been inflated tonight in a battle between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game where I expect neither Boston nor Milwaukee to put up more than 95 points in this one.
The recent history between these teams shows that this total has been inflated tonight. They have already met three times this season with Milwaukee winning 99-88 on the road on November 2nd for 187 combined points, Boston winning 96-92 on the road on November 10th for 188 combined points, and Milwaukee winning at home 91-88 on December 1st for 179 combined points. So this will be their 4th meeting of the season already, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.
Looking back further I find some even more astonishing numbers in this head-to-head series. Boston and Milwaukee have combined for 191 or less points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings with one another. Their last four meetings dating back to last year have seen an average of 178.8 combined points/game.
Boston is 40-23 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-21-12||Ball State +7 v. Central Florida||Top||17-38||Loss||-100||212 h 20 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +7
The Ball State Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They won nine games with their only losses coming against current Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. They fell to both the Huskies and Golden Flashes by a combined 14 points, and both of those teams went on to play in the MAC title game. In fact, Northern Illinois will be playing in a BCS bowl.
Ball State features a dynamic offense, and it is certainly the superior team on this side of the ball. It is averaging 35.0 points per game while ranking 22nd in the country in total offense at 471.3 yards per game. It is averaging 214.3 yards on the ground and 257.1 through the air. UCF is 58th in total offense at 400.7 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Keith Wenning is expected to return after missing their season finale against Miami (Ohio) with a strained Achilles tendon. He is currently listed as probable, and he
|12-21-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 188.5||80-99||Win||100||7 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/76ers UNDER 188.5
The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Philadelphia has gone OVER the total in six straight, while Atlanta has gone OVER the number in three of their last four. These recent OVER runs for both teams has created some line value on the UNDER tonight.
Atlanta is scoring just 94.7 points/game while giving up 90.9 points/game on the road this season for an average combined score of 185.6 points/game. Philadelphia is scoring 93.2 points/game and allowing 96.9 points/game on the season for an average combined score of 190.1 points/game.
The recent history between these teams shows that this number has been inflated. Philadelphia and Atlanta have combined for 185, 185 and 166 points in their last three meetings, respectively. These teams clearly tend to play in defensive battles, and I expect that to be the case again tonight.
Atlanta is 15-2 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average combined score of 179.1 points/game between the Hawks and their opponents in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-20-12||BYU -2.5 v. San Diego State||Top||23-6||Win||100||189 h 50 m||Show|
20* BYU/San Diego State Poinsettia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on BYU -2.5
The BYU Cougars come in playing well having won three of their last four games overall. All three wins came by 24 or more points, including a 41-17 victory at Georgia Tech. Their lone loss during this stretch came on the road against an underrated San Jose State team by a final of 14-20.
San Diego State has a solid offense, but BYU has the antidote with one of the best defenses in the FBS. It is allowing just 14.7 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 266.3 yards per game.
The Cougars aren
|12-20-12||Pepperdine +8 v. Tulane||54-69||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine +8
The Pepperdine Waves are showing solid value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Tulane Green Wave Thursday. Pepperdine is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and I believe it has an excellent chance to win this game outright tonight.
Pepperdine is off to a 7-4 start this season under head coach Marty Wilson. Three of its four losses have come by 6 points or less, and the other was a 62-79 loss at California as a 20.5-point underdog. The biggest reason you can tell this team is underrated is the fact that it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Sure, Tulane is off to an 8-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have a good win on its resume. Its eight victories have all come at home against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Nebraska-Omaha, Chicago State, Southern U, Loyola New Orleans, Navy, Nicholls State and Texas Pan Am. Just to give you an example of how easy of a schedule that is, there was only one line set in those eight games. Tulane has only had four lined games all season.
Tulane is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days since 1997. The Green Wave are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Tulane is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These five trends combine for a 35-2 (95%) system backing the Waves. Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.
|12-20-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 199||93-99||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Timberwolves TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 199
The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. I look for a high-scoring affair as both teams score at least 100 in this one while combining for 200-plus by game's end.
Oklahoma City has been scoring at will while playing tremendous basketball over the past month. The Thunder have won 15 of their last 16 games overall. The biggest reason for their success has been their offensive efficiency considering they have score 100-plus points in 15 of those 16 contests.
Minnesota has not been good defensively of late, which is a big reason why the OVER is 4-1 in the Timberwolves' last five games overall. They have given up 102 or more points in five straight contests, so the Thunder are certainly in line to put up at least 100 in this one.
A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have set the number too low tonight. Each of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have seen 201 or more combined points. In fact, eight of those contests have seen 214 or more combined points. This makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the OVER in this one. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-19-12||Mississippi v. Loyola Marymount +8.5||73-70||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +8.5
The Loyola-Marymount Lions are showing awesome value as a 7.5-point home underdog to the Ole Miss Rebels tonight. Ole Miss is way overvalued due to its 7-1 start to the season, while Loyola-Marymount is undervalued because of its mediocre 5-4 start.
It's easy to see why Ole Miss has gotten off to a 7-1 start considering it has played seven of its first eight games at home. Those seven home wins came against Mississippi Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Lipscomb, East Tennessee State and Rutgers. Its only road game this season resulted in a 62-65 loss at Middle Tennessee State.
Loyola-Marymount has played a much more difficult schedule as six of its first nine games have been on the road. The Lions have gone 2-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Long Beach State by three points with a final of 70-73.
I really like the balance of this team as they have four players averaging in double figures scoring, led by Anthony Ireland (21.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.8 APG). They also recently got guard Bruce English (10.0 PPG) back from injury.
Loyola-Marymount is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system that has not lost over the last two years. Bet Loyola-Marymount Wednesday.
|12-19-12||New Orleans Hornets +13.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-93||Loss||-104||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +13.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value as a 13.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday night. This number has been inflated, and we'll take advantage by backing the dog in the final game on the board tonight.
The Clippers are overvalued due to their current 10-game winning streak. The betting public is now all over this team due to this streak, which has forced the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.
New Orleans will be amped up for this game to try and end the Clippers' winning streak, while also trying to put a halt to their own eight-game slide. They nearly ended it in their past two games, falling 94-95 at Portland as a 5-point dog, and 96-103 at Golden State as a 7.5-point dog.
New Orleans just recently got Anthony Davis back from injury, and he is clearly their most important player as he ranks 2nd in the team in scoring (14.6), 1st in blocks (2.0), 1st in rebounds (8.2) and 1st in steals (1.4).
The Hornets won their first meeting with the Clippers this season 105-98 on the road on November 26th as a 13-point underdog, and they didn't even have Davis for that contest. With him in the line-up this time around, he'll make life very difficult on Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan of Los Angeles.
This play falls into a system that is 61-26 (70.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.
New Orleans is 29-12 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Hornets are 27-14 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with New Orleans Wednesday.
|12-19-12||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 192||91-103||Loss||-107||8 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 192
Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics will be fatigued tonight after playing Tuesday. This will be the second of a back-to-back for both squads as Boston fell 89-100 at Chicago, while Cleveland lost 99-113 at home to Toronto.
The fact that both teams lost actually works in our favor here. Cleveland has lost four straight now, and it will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and get a win. Boston has dropped three straight while allowing at least 100 points in all three road losses to Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. It will certainly be laying it all on the line defensively tonight.
The recent history between these teams indicates that the total has been inflated tonight. The Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 169, 183 and 175 points in each of their last three meetings, respectively.
This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.
Cleveland is 17-5 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 29-16 to the UNDER when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons, including 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-19-12||Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5||Top||86-100||Win||100||6 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Knicks/Nets UNDER 194.5
The New York Knicks take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight in what will be one of the best rivalries in the league for years to come. These rivals are already very familiar with each other having played each other twice.
Brooklyn won the first meeting 96-89 in overtime on November 26th, while New York took the second 100-97. The Nets shot 52.9% in that game, while the Knicks made 14 of 28 (50%) from 3-point range. So, this will be their 3rd meeting in less than a month.
Neither team is likely to shoot as well as it did in the last meeting. Their familiarity with one another will lead to a low-scoring affair tonight. Plus, Carmelo Anthony is banged up and questionable to go tonight for New York after missing the past two games due to injury.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 23-7 in Nets last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 34-16-2 in Nets last 52 road games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-19-12||The Citadel +20.5 v. St Bonaventure||57-97||Loss||-110||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on The Citadel +20.5
The Citadel Bulldogs are showing solid value as a 20.5-point underdog to St. Bonaventure tonight. The books have inflated this number quite a bit in a game that the Bonnies will not take seriously.
St. Bonaventure is off to a 6-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have an impressive win on its resume. It has been favored in all but two games this season, and it lost both of those contests as an underdog to Ohio and Arkansas State.
Off a huge 87-53 win over Cleveland State, and with a Top 25 opponent in NC State on deck Saturday, St. Bonaventure is in a big letdown spot. It will be looking ahead to that game against the Wolfpack, and it won't give The Citadel the attention it will take to cover this big spread tonight.
The Citadel is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. This is simply a great situation to back the Bulldogs given the state of mind of St. Bonaventure coming in. Take The Citadel Wednesday.
|12-18-12||New Orleans Hornets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 193||Top||96-103||Loss||-115||11 h 12 m||Show|
20* Hornets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and Golden State Warriors. Both teams are better defensively than they get credit for, and neither is explosive offensively.
New Orleans is scoring just 91.9 points/game and giving up 98.1 points/game. Its defensive numbers will continue to improve as long as Anthony Davis stays healthy. He has missed the majority of their games and he just recently returned.
Golden State is scoring 99.6 points/game and allowing 98.4 points/game, including 96.9 points/game at home. Mark Jackson has this team playing the way he envisioned when he took over, which is defense first.
Taking a look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER. Golden State and New Orleans have combined to score 193 or less points in four straight meetings. That includes an 83-81 Hornets' home victory in their most recent showdown.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset win as a road underdog, playing with 2 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks -2||93-98||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2
The Milwaukee Bucks should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Indiana Pacers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and they continue going under the radar despite a solid 12-10 start.
Milwaukee has won four of its last five games overall, which includes an impressive road win at Brooklyn. Its only loss came last time out to the Los Angeles Clippers as nothing went right offensively. Turns out that wasn't such a bad loss considering the Clippers have won 10 in a row and counting.
These teams have already met once this season with Milwaukee topping Indiana 99-85 at home on November 14th. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bucks took a 60-34 lead into halftime before calling off the dogs after intermission.
Indiana is getting too much respect due to its three-game winning streak that has come against the Cavs, 76ers and Pistons. The Pacers are 16-32 ATS in their last 48 road games following two straight wins by 10 points or more. Indiana is 11-27 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bucks Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Utah Jazz v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193||92-90||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Nets UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Tuesday in Brooklyn as neither team surpasses 95 points in this one.
The Nets are averaging 95.9 points/game this season while allowing 93.8 points/game. That's an average combined score of 189.3 points/game between the Nets and their opponents this season. This team is built for the half court, and they'll control the tempo playing at home tonight.
The UNDER is 3-0 in Utah's last three games overall. The Jazz have really struggled offensively in their last two contests, falling 84-99 to Phoenix on December 14th and 86-99 to Memphis the following night.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 Tuesday games. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS win. These three trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Nets last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Miami Heat||92-103||Loss||-110||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* T'Wolves/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Minnesota +9
The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally starting to get healthy, and this is going to be a very dangerous team going forward because of it. They have opened 12-10 despite battling through injuries all season.
Sure, Minnesota blew a 12-point halftime lead to fall to Orlando last night 93-102. However, it was likely overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this contest against the defending champion Miami Heat tonight.
The Timberwolves will be giving a much better effort in this one. They had been playing very well before that loss last night. They have still won six of their last eight games overall, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Minnesota is 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Winthrop +29 v. Ohio State||55-65||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Winthrop +29
This is a huge letdown spot for the No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1). They have a home game against No. 9 Kansas on deck, and it's only human nature for them to look ahead to that game this Saturday.
Because Ohio State will be overlooking Winthrop in this one, I have no doubt that they'll be able to stay within 29 points tonight. The Buckeyes are becoming a bit bored after playing Northern Kentucky, Long Beach State, Savannah State and UNC-Asheville all at home in their last four contests.
The Buckeyes started to show signs of getting bored against UNC-Asheville last time out, only winning 90-72 despite coming in as a 25.5-point favorite. Wintrop is off to a 4-4 start this season with only one of its losses coming by more than 15 points. It is coming off an impressive 50-49 win at Ohio (7-3) last time out. Take Winthrop Tuesday.
|12-17-12||NY Jets +2 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||10-14||Loss||-110||78 h 34 m||Show|
20* Jets/Titans ESPN Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York +2
While the Titans have already been eliminated from postseason contention, the Jets are still alive. They have an excellent chance to win their final three games against the Titans, Chargers and Bills, which would leave them with a 9-7 record. That could be good enough to get them a wild-card spot, so this team certainly still has something to play for.
New York has won two straight and three of its last four with its only loss coming to the Patriots during this stretch. It has two road wins over this span with a 27-13 victory at St. Louis on November 18th, and a 17-10 win at Jacksonville last Sunday. It has been playing great defensively of late, limiting its opponents to 291 or less yards in its last three wins. It even held the Cardinals to 137 total yards in a home victory on December 2nd.
The Jets are certainly the better defensive team in this one, and it
|12-17-12||Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 v. Orlando Magic||93-102||Loss||-108||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They have been battling through injuries all year and still find themselves in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference at 12-9.
Minnesota has won four straight and six of seven overall. Ricky Rubio just returned on Saturday, while Kevin Love (flu) missed Saturday's 114-106 overtime victory over Dallas. Both Rubio and Love are expected to be in the line-up together for the first time this season Monday.
These teams already met once this season with Minnesota topping Orlando 90-75 at home on November 7th. With Rubio and Love both in the fold this time around, I'm expecting a similar blowout on the road tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MINNESOTA) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Take the Timberwolves Monday.
|12-17-12||Detroit +20 v. Syracuse||68-72||Win||100||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* Detroit/Syracuse ESPN 2 Monday No-Brainer on Detroit +20
The Detroit Titans are showing excellent value tonight as a big road underdog to the Syracuse Orange. They have won four straight to improve to 6-4 on the season. Their only four losses have all come on the road to St. Johns, Miami, Bowling Green and Pittsburgh all by 15 points or less.
Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 9-0 start. Sure, it has gone 6-0 ATS in all lined games to this point, but that is another reason why this team is overvalued right now. The Orange have played an extremely easy schedule to this point with seven home games and only one true road game. This will be their toughest home game yet.
This play falls into a system that is 74-30 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 9 or more consecutive wins.
Syracuse is 6-17 ATS in home games after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997. Detroit is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Big East opponents. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Horizon League foes. Roll with Detroit Monday.
|12-16-12||New Orleans Hornets +5.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||94-95||Win||100||20 h 44 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Blazers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +5.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are overvalued right now after back-to-back victories over the Raptors and Spurs. They caught the Spurs in a tough spot for San Antonio as they were playing the second of a back-to-back. This also sets the Blazers up for a letdown after such a big win.
New Orleans is highly motivated to put an end to its 6-game losing streak that has featured losses to the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wizards, Thunder and Timberwolves. That is an absolute brutal schedule, and it certainly gets easier tonight against the 10-12 Blazers.
The Hornets are starting to get healthy as they finally got top pick Anthony Davis back in the line-up recently. Davis' return is huge as he ranks 2nd on the team in scoring (14.6 PPG), 1st in rebounding (7.7 RPG) and 1st in blocks (2.2 BPG).
Portland is 1-11 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is actually getting outscored 106.2 to 95.1 in this spot, or by an average of 11.1 points/game. Roll with the Hornets Sunday.
|12-16-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 43||50-17||Loss||-110||49 h 10 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/Bills NFL Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 43
This total has been inflated Sunday in the annual NFL game played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. I look for a very low-scoring game between the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon.
The biggest reason this total is inflated is due to the Seahawks scoring 58 points last week against Arizona. The Cardinals had given up early into that game, and the Seahawks kept pouring on the points. They won't be putting up a big number on this improved Bills' defense this week.
Buffalo has been playing tremendous on defense of late, limiting opponents to just 16.8 points/game in their last four contests. However, they have been poor offensively of late, scoring an average of only 19.5 points/game in their last four.
Seattle features one of the best defenses in the league. After shutting out the Cardinals last week, the Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points/game while ranking 3rd in the league in total defense at 301.2 yards/game allowed.
The Seahawks are really not a good offensive team, especially when you don't factor in that Arizona game last week. Seattle is averaging just 17.0 points/game on the road this season, and it ranks just 21st in the league in total offense at 341.2 yards/game.
Buffalo is 13-2 to the UNDER in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score in these games has been Buffalo 14.0 and its opponents 22.8 for a combined average of 36.8 points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-16-12||Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6.5||10-38||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5
The Lions have lost five straight, and they have to be extremely frustrated with all of their close losses this season. Off a 20-27 loss at Green Bay in which they blew a 14-3 lead early, the Lions may not even show up this week. It
|12-16-12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 53.5||Top||0-41||Loss||-115||46 h 2 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucs/Saints OVER 53.5
The OVER in this game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints Sunday represents my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012-13 NFL season. I look for both teams to score 27-plus points to easily push the final combined score OVER the posted total by game's end.
I look for a similar final to the 35-28 road victory by New Orleans in the first meeting between these teams on October 21st. Tampa Bay put up 513 total yards in the loss, including 411 passing. New Orleans wasn't far behind with 458 total yards in the win, including 377 passing. As you can see, these teams combined for 63 total points and 971 total yards.
These are clearly two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New Orleans is allowing 29.2 points/game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 437.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay is yielding 23.7 points/game and ranking 28th in total defense at 389.8 yards per game.
That bodes well for a high-scoring affair considering these are two of the best offenses in the league as well. New Orleans is scoring 26.8 points/game while ranking 3rd in total offense at 394.3 yards/game. Tampa Bay is putting up 27.2 points/game and ranking 13th in total offense at 356.8 yards/game.
The Bucs are 6-0 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 7-0 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.
The Bucs are 6-0 OVER after playing a home game this season. Tampa is 6-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-16-12||Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -2||36-22||Loss||-110||46 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -2
The St. Louis Rams are playing their best football of the season right now. They should be a bigger favorite over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, and I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Rams in a game I believe they'll run away with.
St. Louis has won three straight with two of those victories coming on the road. It won 31-17 at Arizona as a 1.5-point dog, 16-13 vs. San Francisco as a 7.5-point dog, and 15-12 at Buffalo as a 3-point dog. This is clearly one of the most underrated teams in the league.
Minnesota is getting way too much respect for its 21-14 victory over Chicago last week. The Bears essentially gave that game away as they found a way to lose despite outgaining the Vikings 438-248 for the game. Remember, this is the same Minnesota team that had lost four of its previous five games all by 9 points or more coming in.
Percy Harvin is done for the year, and the Vikings' passing game has really struggled because of it. They are averaging a woeful 124.3 passing yards/game in their last seven contests. They are having to rely much too heavily on Adrian Peterson to carry the load, and their one-dimensional offense will be easy for the Rams to stop.
St. Louis ranks 12th in the league against the run at 110.3 yards/game. It is also giving up just 4.0 yards/carry. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the 13 teams the Rams have faced this season average 126 yards and 4.4/carry, so they clearly have a great run D.
The Rams are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season, clearly playing best football inside the Edward Jones Dome. Minnesota has been atrocious on the road, going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season. The Vikings are getting outscored by an average of 7.5 points/game away from home this year.
Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These five trends combine for a 31-1 (97%) system backing St. Louis. Take the Rams Sunday.
|12-16-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +8 v. Miami Dolphins||3-24||Loss||-119||46 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +8
The Jaguars have played their best football on the road this season. While they are just 1-5 straight up away from home, they are a very profitable 5-1 ATS. This team doesn't have the best following at home, so they have a hard time getting excited to play in a stadium that has thousands of empty seats. It's just a better atmosphere for these players when they go on the road.
They lost at Minnesota 23-26 in overtime as a 3.5-point dog, won at Indianapolis 22-17 as a 3-point dog, lost at Oakland 23-26 as a 6-point dog, lost at Green Bay 15-24 as a 15.5-point dog, and lost at Houston 37-43 in overtime as a 15-point dog in their five road covers.
Miami is actually getting outscored at home this season, and it has been one of the worst home teams in the league over the last couple decades. The Dolphins are 48-71 ATS in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. They are also 39-59 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The Dolphins simply do not score enough points to be a 7-point favorite against any team in this league. They are only averaging 18.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 310.6 yards per game. Three of their five wins this season have come by 4 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 118-70 (62.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI)
|12-15-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls -3.5||Top||82-83||Loss||-110||21 h 55 m||Show|
25* NBA Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5
This is one of the best situations you will see all year in the NBA. All factors point toward a blowout in favor of the Chicago Bulls tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.
Chicago comes in fresh as it has had two days' rest since a solid 96-89 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday. It will use those fresh legs to run the dead tired Nets out of the building tonight.
Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. If that situation wasn't already tough enough, the Nets are coming off a double-overtime victory over Detroit last night by a final of 107-105. Simply put, they won't have anything left to give against Chicago in this one.
The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Bet the Bulls Saturday.
|12-15-12||Iona v. Georgia -1.5||81-78||Loss||-110||17 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -1.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are showing their best value of the season as only a 1.5-point favorite over Iona. I look for them to run away with this one by double-digits or close to it by game's end.
Georgia is undervalued right now due to its 2-6 start against a wicked schedule. It has faced the likes of Indiana, UCLA, South Florida and Georgia Tech all on the road for four of its losses. Battle-tested and hungry for a victory, the Bulldogs will be laying it all on the line at home tonight.
Iona is just 3-4 this season, and it should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its four losses have come to Quinnipiac, Illinois-Chicago, St. Peters and Rutgers. I wouldn't consider any of those four teams to be above-average, and the Gaels lost to them all.
Iona is 2-10 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Georgia is 22-7 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less since 1997. The Gaels are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulldogs are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Georgia Saturday.
|12-15-12||Toledo v. Utah State OVER 58.5||Top||15-41||Loss||-107||65 h 24 m||Show|
20* Toledo/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl features a match-up between two of the best offenses in the country. I look for a high-scoring affair in this contest between Utah State and Toledo with 60-plus combined points scored by game's end.
Utah State is scoring 34.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the country in total offense at 460.7 yards/game. What makes this offense so difficult to stop is its balance. The Aggies average 193 yards on the ground and 268 through the air.
The Aggies should have their way with a Toledo stop unit that ranks 107th in the country in total defense. They give up a whopping 463.2 yards/game, including 168 on the ground and 295 through the air.
Toledo is putting up 32.9 points/game while ranking 28th in the country in total offense at 456.1 yards/game. It also has tremendous balance as it averages 197 yards on the ground and 259 through the air.
Utah State does have a good defense, but it hasn't faced many offenses nearly as potent as the one it will be facing in this bowl game. Two offenses they've faced that have been comparable are San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. They gave up 27 points in a 49-27 victory over San Jose State on September 13th, and 41 points in a 48-41 victory over Louisiana Tech on November 17th.
Toledo is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 78.8 combined points on average in this situation. The Rockets are 11-1 to the OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 76.0 combined points in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-15-12||Cincinnati v. Marshall +12.5||72-56||Loss||-112||14 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +12.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are overvalued due to their 9-0 start. They should not be a double-digit favorite Saturday in what will essentially be a home game for Marshall at the Charleston Civic Center in Charleston, WV.
Cincinnati has played an extremely soft schedule this season. It has yet to play a true road games, and its two neutral court contests resulted in wins over both Iowa State and Oregon by 11 points or less.
Marshall is off to a 6-4 start this season with all four of its losses coming by 12 points or less. Two of those defeats came on the road against Villanova and West Virginia, which are two solid basketball programs. This is a Marshall team that returns three starters from a squad that beat Cincinnati 73-69 last year.
This play falls into a system that is 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (CINCINNATI) - after 9 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season. This trend really shows how it is profitable to fade overvalued teams that open the season on long winning streaks.
Marshall is a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. It is actually outscoring these top caliber teams by an average of 6.9 points/game over the last 3 years. Take Marshall Saturday.
|12-15-12||Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -3||54-64||Win||100||14 h 59 m||Show|
15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Head coach Lon Kruger, a proven winner throughout his career, has returned all five starters from last year's team. That includes three double-digit scorers.
The biggest reason this team is undervalued is due to its mediocre 6-2 start. However, both of those losses came on the road to Gonzaga and Arkansas, which are two teams that are better than they get credit for. This will essentially be a home game for the Sooners as it will be played at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK.
Texas A&M is getting way too much respect due to its 7-1 start. It has played a much softer schedule than Oklahoma. Its only tough opponent came against Saint Louis on a neutral court, and the Aggies fell in blowout fashion 70-49. They have only played one true road game all season.
This play falls into a system that is 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (OKLAHOMA) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season. The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-14-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets -1||Top||94-99||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1
The Denver Nuggets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 11-12 start. The Memphis Grizzlies are certainly overvalued due to their 14-5 start, and that is starting to show as they have lost two straight coming in despite being heavy favorites in both.
The biggest reason Denver is just 10-11 right now is due to a brutal schedule. It has played a ridiculous 17 road games compared to just 6 home games to this point. Following a five-game road trip, there's no question that it will be excited to return home tonight.
The Nuggets are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 103.8 points/game and allowing 94.0 points/game, outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.8 points/game at home this year.
Denver is 27-3 in all home meetings with Memphis since 1996. The Grizzlies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet Denver Friday.
|12-14-12||Boston Celtics v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206.5||89-101||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this nationally televised showdown on ESPN. Any time a game involving the Boston Celtics has a total set over 200, the UNDER is certainly worth a look. I look for the defensive intensity to be at a high level for both teams in this National TV battle.
Boston has already played in four overtime games this season, including their 117-115 victory over Dallas in double overtime on Wednesday. Even with those four OT games included, the Celtics are still averaging just 98.3 points/game and giving up 97.5 points/game on the season.
Houston has also been a part of three overtime games already, which is certainly more than average as well. The Rockets are scoring 104.2 points/game and allowing 104.8 points/game on the season.
Boston is combining with its opponents to average 195.8 points/game, while Houston is combining with its opponents to average 209.0 points/game. Add those numbers up and divide by two and we get an average of 202.4 points/game, which would be the expected total if these teams played each other. We're getting a full 4 points of value here with the UNDER, and I believe it's even more than that considering these teams have combined to play in 7 overtime games already.
The two most recent meetings between these teams have been extremely low scoring. Houston beat Boston 93-77 at home on 3/18/11 for 170 combined points. Boston topped Houston 97-92 in overtime on 3/6/12 in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for a combined 168 points. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
This play falls into a system that is 71-36 (66.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-14-12||Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic +5||85-99||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +5
The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right after having won eight of their last nine games overall. There's no question that this team is better than it was expected to be, but they should not be favored at Orlando tonight.
Golden State's only loss during this stretch came at home to Orlando by a final of 94-102 on December 3rd. After winning five straight road games to start this 7-game trip, the Warriors are in a huge letdown spot tonight.
They are coming off a win over the defending champion Miami Heat 97-95 on Wednesday. After earning their biggest win of the season, there's no question the Warriors will have a hard time getting up to face the Magic tonight.
Orlando has won seven of its last eight meetings with Golden State. Its only loss since 2008 came in overtime by a final of 123-120 on the road. The Magic are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Take the Magic Friday.
|12-13-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +5||Top||34-13||Loss||-110||22 h 36 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Eagles NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5
The Eagles are showing excellent value at home tonight as a 5-point underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals. This line opened at Cincinnati -3, but the betting public has jumped all over the Bengals pushing it up to 5 in some places. I liked the Eagles at +3.5, and I certainly will back them at this price with a gift of a line from the books at +4.5 or better.
Philadelphia is undervalued right now due to the fact that it won't be going to the playoffs. These players have really known that for quite some time after a 3-7 start, but they have kept fighting. I look for them to continue to give their best effort tonight and to try and play the role of spoiler, just as they did last week.
The Eagles have been fighting for the last three weeks. They lost at home to Carolina 22-30 on November 26th, lost at Dallas 33-38 as a 10.5-point dog on December 2nd, then won 23-21 at Tampa Bay as a 7-point dog last Sunday. They thoroughly outplayed the Bucs, outgaining them 367-314 for the game.
Nick Foles had a big game, completing 32 of 51 passes for 381 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In fact, he has not thrown an interception in 14 quarters as he continues to improve with each start. The Eagles' defense held Josh Freeman to 14 of 34 passing for 189 yards and two touchdowns.
"He has the potential to be a special quarterback in this league," said Jeremy Maclin, who caught a season-high nine passes for 104 yards in the win over Tampa Bay. "And he's growing up right in front of our eyes."
Cincinnati blew a 9-point lead at home in the fourth quarter to lose 19-20 to the Dallas Cowboys last week. Head coach Marvin Lewis hasn't been able to get his team to respond well following tough losses like that one. Lewis is 2-10 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Cincinnati.
Andy Reid is 29-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Philadelphia. Lewis is 0-9 ATS in road games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return as the coach of Cincinnati.
This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|12-13-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks UNDER 208||107-116||Loss||-103||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Knicks TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 208
The Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This game will be nationally televised on TNT, which tends to bring up the defensive intensity from both teams.
New York is one of the better defensive teams in the league as they give up 95.3 points/game on the season, including 91.2 points/game at home. The Knicks have allowed less than 100 points in eight of their last nine games overall.
The Lakers are yielding a respectable 98.8 points/game and they are certainly putting emphasis on their play at this end of the floor after a tough recent stretch. They have lost five of their last six contests, so this team will be giving a little bit extra at the defensive end to try and pick up a big win.
A look at the recent history between these teams makes it easy to see that this total has been inflated. The home team won their two most recent meetings. Los Angeles won 99-82 on 12/29/11 for 181 combined points, while New York won 92-85 on 02/10/12 for 177 combined points. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
New York is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 184.1 combined points/game in this spot. The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Lakers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-12-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz UNDER 210||96-99||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210
Oddsmakers have inflated this total due to recent performances from both teams that were very high-scoring. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that will be nationally televised on ESPN, which always tends to bring out stronger defensive intensity by both teams.
San Antonio just beat Houston 134-126 in overtime for 260 combined points. Utah just beat the Lakers 117-110 on the road for 227 combined points. Both the Rockets and Lakers have been atrocious on the defensive end recently, which is the biggest reason for those high-scoring affairs. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this total too high based on those recent performances, knowing that the betting public would jump on the OVER if they didn't.
Taking a look at this series between the Spurs and Jazz, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 210 or less combined points. Six of the last seven meetings in Utah have seen 208 or less combined points. Utah is only giving up 93.6 points/game at home this season, while San Antonio is yielding 97.3 points/game in all games this year.
The Jazz are 18-5 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. Utah is 70-47 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996. The Jazz are 22-10 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-12-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +8.5||100-94||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as an 8.5-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The value is simply too good to pass up, and I'll gladly fade the public and put my smart money on the big home dog in this one.
This is an extremely tough spot for a Clippers team that is way overvalued due to its seven-game winning streak. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. It is coming off a big 94-89 road win at Chicago on National TV last night, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight in Charlotte.
The Bobcats are way undervalued right now due to their current eight-game losing streak. This skid has come against a brutal schedule as their eight opponents have been the Thunder, Hawks, 76ers, Blazers, Knicks, Bucks, Spurs and Warriors. Four of their five home losses during this stretch have come by 8 points or less. Fresh on one days' rest, and motivated to put an end to this losing streak, the Bobcats will be giving better effort tonight than the Clippers.
The Clippers are 19-38 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1996. Los Angeles is 37-60 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Clippers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Los Angeles only has one true road win by more than 5 points this season. Take the Bobcats Wednesday.
|12-12-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 188.5||Top||94-88||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Raptors UNDER 188.5
There are two main reasons that I believe this game finishes well below the posted total tonight. Both the Brooklyn Nets and the Toronto Raptors will struggle to reach 90 points because of these two factors.
First, Brooklyn is a tired team right now as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. I look for the Nets to play at a slower tempo offensively because of it. This is an excellent team defensively as the Nets are allowing just 94.0 points/game overall and 91.1 points/game on the road. They are only scoring 93.0 points/game on the road as well.
Toronto is likely to be without two of its top three scorers tonight. Andrea Bargnani (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with an elbow injury, while Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) is doubtful with a tricep injury. Not having Bargnani's shooting and Lowry's ability to run the offense and create open looks for teammates is really going to hamper Toronto's offense tonight.
Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 176.5 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Brooklyn's last 27 road games. The UNDER is 17-4 in Raptors last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.