15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back.  Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done. 

The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season.  They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game. 

The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +15 

The Portland State Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their eight lined games.  Now they are catching 15 points from a rebuilding Oregon team that has no business laying this kind of number. 

Portland State’s two losses this season came to Duke (81-99) as 24.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Butler (69-71) as 12-point dogs on a neutral.  The Vikings have pulled outright upsets over UC-Riverside, Utah State, Stanford, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara with four of those wins coming on the road.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve. 

Oregon is just 7-3 SU & 4-5 ATS on the season.  The Ducks returned just one starter from last year.  They have been upset by UConn and Boise State, and they also lost to Oklahoma by 10.  Their 74-68 win over Texas Southern as 20-point home favorites on Monday was also a concerning result.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for Portland State. 

The Vikings are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.  The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Vikings are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  Roll with Portland State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5 

The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him.  They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7). 

I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run.  But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers.  They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here. 

The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number.  They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home. 

The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons.  Take the Suns Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road.  The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. 

Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling.  The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home.  They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs.  I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here. 

The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless.  Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight.  The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee. 

The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss.  The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5 

The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis.  But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him.  They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets. 

The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS.  They have been competitive in most games.  They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to. 

The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. 

The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss.  Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season.  Take the Nets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall.  They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently.  They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins. 

Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits.  The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season.  They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th.  The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall. 

Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar.  The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets.  They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch. 

The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable.  They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert.  And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks. 

Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Columbia +12 

Off their shocking 89-84 upset win as 15-point underdogs to Duke on Saturday, the Boston College Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Columbia.  They won’t show up at all, and don’t be surprised if they lose outright.  But I certainly love getting Columbia as 12-point dogs in this spot. 

This is the same Boston College team that lost by 11 to Texas Tech, by 22 to Providence and by 9 to Nebraska.  It’s also a BC team that only beat Colgate 83-79 in its previous home game before beating Duke.  Go figure. 

Columbia is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate.  This team has simply had brutal luck in close games, losing seven times by 10 points or less.  The two exceptions?  A 15-point road loss as 25.5-point dogs at Villanova and a 14-point road loss as 13.5-point dogs at Penn State.  That effort against Villanova alone shows that this team is more than capable of hanging with Boston College on the road tonight. 

Columbia is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games as a dog of 10 points or more.  Columbia is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Boston College is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. teams who allow 45% or more shooting to opponents.  The Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Roll with Columbia Tuesday. 

20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5

The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here.  They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC.  Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that.  They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins.  They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week.  But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge.  And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore.

Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense.  He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos.  The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season.

This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season.  Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week.  He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami.  What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers.

The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to play better.  They have won four of their last five games overall.  But they are actually 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so they are not living up to expectations from oddsmakers.  I think that has them undervalued now as only 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets. 

Paul George has sat out the last two games, but he is expected to return for this contest against the Charlotte Hornets.  They blew a 16-point lead to the Nets in their first game without him.  Then they came back from 20 points down to beat the Grizzlies in overtime.  I think having him back in the lineup will be a huge boost tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are really struggling.  They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost back-to-back home games to the Bulls and Lakers.  They have a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with right now, too.  Nic Batum (elbow), Frank Kaminsky (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) are all questionable, while Cody Zeller (knee) is out. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oklahoma City) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Hornets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma City.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5

Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point.  Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive.  It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points.  They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16.  Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans.  They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game.

Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer.  And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams.  They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites.  I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak.

While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not.  Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles.  The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker.  I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario.

The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football.  That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday.  Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense.  He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed.  Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict.  That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes.

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents.  Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.  The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise.  They are much healthier now.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season.  After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas.  Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses.

This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs.  They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place.  That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated.

Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road.  They completely imploded, committing four turnovers.  Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now.  I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week.

It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field.  They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week.  They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.

Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders.  The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall.  Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.

The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +8.5 

The Sacramento Kings just can’t get any respect from the books.  And until they do, we’ll continue to back them catching big points in the underdog role.  They should not be this big of a home underdog to the Toronto Raptors today. 

The Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Three of the four wins were upsets, including a win at New Orleans as 9.5-point dogs and a win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs.  The are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, pulling off outright upsets over the Thunder, 76ers, Blazers and Lakers in the process. 

The Raptors are getting too much love from the books due to their 5-game winning streak coming in.  But those five wins came against the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Suns and Grizzlies.  That’s an easy slate, and it showed considering they were 5-point favorites or more in all five games.  It won’t come so easy against the Kings tonight. 

The Kings are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Raptors.  Sacramento is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in all meetings with Toronto over the past two seasons, winning both road meetings outright as underdogs as well.  The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* ASU/Kansas ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona State +12.5 

The Arizona State Sun Devils just cannot get any respect from the books.  They have opened 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their eight games this season, yet they are still catching 12.5 points against the Kansas Jayhawks here Sunday.  It’s too much. 

I realize the Jayhawks will be motivated following one of the biggest upset losses of the season.  They lost to Washington 65-74 as 22-point favorites last time out.  But I think that was just more of a sign of the Jayhawks being overrated than anything.  And they remain overrated here Sunday. 

The Sun Devils have proven themselves against some good competition.  They beat Kansas State 92-90 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, Xavier 102-86 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and St. John’s 82-70 as 5-point favorites on a neutral.  They are full capable of hanging with the Jayhawks today as well. 

Senior guards Tra Holder and Shannon Evans average 20.3 and 18.6 points, respectively, while freshman forward Romello White averages 15.6 points and leads Arizona State on the boards with 9.3 rebounds per game.  ASU small forward Mickey Mitchell, a transfer from Ohio State, is eligible and is expected to make his Sun Devils debut Sunday.  The Sun Devils will give the Jayhawks a run for their money this afternoon.  Take Arizona State Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3

I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs.  I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans.

The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.  He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal.  This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer.  And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now.

I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week.  But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense.  One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD.

Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing.  He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers.  His accuracy was impressive.  The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone.  Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team.

The Houston Texans are a mess right now.  They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year.  They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week.  There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now.

First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer.  They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week.  TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans.  

They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now.  Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season.  The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game.

San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2 

I absolutely love this situation for the Atlanta Hawks Saturday.  They just lost to Orlando in overtime on the road on December 6th 106-110.  They have now had two days off to get ready for the Magic, and they’ll clearly want revenge getting them at home this time around. 

Meanwhile, the Magic had to play a game last night against Denver, losing 89-103 at home.  So this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 days for the Magic.  That’s about as tough a situation as it gets. 

The Magic are running on fumes right now as they haven’t had two days in a row off since November 16-17.  They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days with three back-to-backs in there.  They are short-handed right now without arguably their best player in Evan Fournier, and key 6th man Terrance Ross.  Also star rookie Jonathan Isaac is doubtful with an ankle injury. 

Orlando is 12-27 ATS versus teams who give up 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet the Hawks Saturday. 

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Navy -2.5 

Navy had won 14 straight meetings with Army before finally losing to the Black Knights 21-17 last season. But that was an awful situation for the Midshipmen, to recently moved into the AAC.  They played for the AAC Championship against Temple last year and lost that game. 

Normally, Navy would have two weeks to get ready for Army.  But that wasn’t the case last year as the Midshipmen had to play on Championship Week, while Army got two weeks to prepare.  The Black Knights took advantage of that break and pulled off the upset. 

That won’t be the case this year as both teams have two weeks to prepare.   And you can bet Navy wasn’t happy about having to hear about losing to Army for 365 days.  Look for the Midshipmen to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to have a big brother mentality where they never want to lose to their little brother. 

Let’s look at this game from a line value perspective.  Navy has been favored by at least 6 points against Army in 14 consecutive meetings.  They have been a double-digit favorite nine times during this stretch.  Now they are only 2.5-point favorites this year, and I think the value is clearly with the Midshipmen because of it. 

Sure, Army is improved at 8-3 this season, but the Black Knights have played an extremely soft schedule. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season!  The best wins they have are against 6-6 teams.  And they’ve lost to Tulane and North Texas. 

Navy has played the much more difficult schedule, and they’ve been in every game they played.  They are 6-5 this season, but all five losses came by 10 points or less, and they came to five bowl teams with four of them on the road to Memphis, UCF, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston.  They played all five teams right down to the wire, including a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs. 

Army outgained teams by 38 yards per game on the season while Navy outgained teams by 39 yards per game, and that’s important when you consider how much more difficult Navy’s schedule was.  This game will come down to which team stops the run. 

Navy gives up 4.6 yards per carry against teams that average 5.1 per carry, holding them to 0.5 yards per carry below their season averages.  Army gives up 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 4.3 per carry, actually giving up 0.5 per carry more than their opponents normally average.  It’s clear that the Midshipmen have the better run defense. 

Army is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. poor pass defenses that allow 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  Navy is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Black Knights are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 games following a bye week.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -9.5 

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies went 20-12 last season.  They returned four starters from that team, including one of the best backcourts in the country in Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg last year) and Jaylen Adams (20.6 ppg, 6.5 apg). 

Yale was expected to compete for an Ivy League title this season.  But those dreams have been crushed since the Bulldogs lost two of their best players to season-ending injury.  Makai Mason (16.0 ppg, in 2015-16) missed all of last season with a foot injury, and that injury didn’t heal so he will miss this season too.  Jordan Bruner (8.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55 blocks last year) has also been lost for the season with a knee injury. 

The Bonnies have been mighty impressive of late, going 6-1 in their last seven games.  They beat Maryland on a neutral court, won three true road games all by 8 points or more against Siena, Buffalo and Canisius, and lost to TCU by 10 as 8.5-point dogs on a neutral.  TCU is still unbeaten as of this writing. 

Yale has been blown out on a the regular when it has taken a step up in class during its 6-5 start this season.  The Bulldogs lost by 16 at Creighton, by 28 at Wisconsin, by 8 at Albany and by 26 at TCU.  They also lost at home to Vermont by 6.  This team isn’t capable of hanging with a team the caliber of St. Bonaventure, which is an NCAA Tournament team in my eyes. 

Yale is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS versus very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points pre game over the last three years.  The Bonnies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Ivy League opponents.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/USC ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +2.5 

Wrong team favored here.  The USC Trojans are absolutely loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 26-10 last year.  They have their top eight scorers back and Bennie Boatwright, Chimezie Metu and Elijah Stewart all withdrew their names from the NBA draft to stay in school. 

I think the fact that USC has already lost two games has them undervalued right now at just 4-2 on the season.  But those losses came to two really good teams in Texas A&M and SMU.  Oklahoma isn’t as good as either of those two teams. 

I think the Sooners are overvalued due to their 6-1 start.  But they haven’t beat anyone as good as USC, and this is a team that went just 10-20 last season.  They do have freshman sensation Trae Young, who is averaging 28.7 points per game this season.  But he is simply asked to do too much, and I don’t trust a guy that consistently shoots 35-foot 3-pointers as part of the offense. 

Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 0-6 ATS when playing on Friday over the last three years.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with USC Friday. 

15* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on San Antonio -2 

The San Antonio Spurs are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  At 17-8 on the season, the Spurs are hardly missing Kawhi Leonard.  They are playing team ball with 30 assists in their last game and a ridiculous eight of their 11 players scored at least 10 points in a 117-105 win over Miami. 

I think the Celtics are grossly overrated right now due to their 22-4 start to the season.  You certainly are paying a tax to back them now.  That’s why they have only covered two of their last five against the spread coming into this game.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books again at basically a pick ‘em on the road here against one of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Spurs have owned the Celtics, going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs have won five straight home meetings with the Celtics dating back to 2011. 

San Antonio is 25-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 8-19 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three years.  The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Friday games.  Take the Spurs Friday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are going to want revenge from a 106-114 home loss to the Pelicans the first time these teams played.  DeMarcus Cousins had a monster game against his former team, but don’t expect that to happen again.  He won’t be nearly as motivated the second time around. 

And Cousins is going to be asked to do a lot with the Pelicans’ best player in Anthony Davis sidelined for this one with a groin injury.  Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca are also out with injuries.  The Pelicans can’t be laying this kind of number with their current injury situation. 

The Kings have been grossly underrated here of late as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-4 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat the Warriors on the road and the Lakers and Bulls at home.  Three of their four losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, including their 95-101 loss in Cleveland as 12.5-point dogs last time out.  It took some late Lebron James heroics to put them away. 

The Kings are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pelicans are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with three double-digit losses during this stretch.  They are clearly missing Davis. 

New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games versus teams who are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Kings Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nets OVER 214.5 

This game is played in Mexico City tonight to showcase the NBA.  The players will want to put on a show, and I look for their to be little defense played in this game.  It will be played at a fast tempo as well for entertainment value. 

The Nets already prefer to play at a face pace.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 104.9 possessions per game, only behind the Lakers and Suns.  They also don’t play a lick of defense.  The Thunder will take advantage and will hang a big number on them. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 226, 229 and 222 points in those three meetings.  That’s an average of 225.7 combined points per game, which is over 11 points more than this 214.5-point total 

Brooklyn is 12-3 OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 28-14 OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2

Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective.  This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons.  They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints.

I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week.  The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings.  The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game.

But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one.  And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week.  From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons.

Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans.  The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card.  And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up.  They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers.  If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs.  So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings.

It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel.  The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints.  S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans.  Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta.

Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories.  The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs.

The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.  Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa +7.5 

The Iowa State Cyclones have no business being favored this heavily over arch rival Iowa tonight.  This is a Cyclones team that only brought back one starter and lost basically everyone from last season.  They are starting from the ground-up. 

It’s only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes get back to playing well after going 19-15 last year.  They were expected to be much better with four returning starters, but their 4-5 start leaves a lot to be desired.  Granted, the schedule has not been easy. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes have already had to face VA Tech, Penn State and Indiana in their last three games, which resulted in three losses.  I think this rough start has them undervalued.   

Conversely, the Cyclones are overvalued after winning five straight.  But this is a team that lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 18 at home as 13.5-point favorites prior to this streak against mostly weak competition. 

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Warriors/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +6 

The Golden State Warriors are in a world of hurt right now with their injuries.  It was already announced that Stephen Curry was going to miss two weeks with a bad ankle injury suffered in their last game.  And this morning it was announced that Draymond Green will also sit with a shoulder injury. 

Curry is the most important player on this team even though Kevin Durant won the MVP in the finals last year.  He makes this team tick.  And Green is perhaps the most underrated player in the NBA.  No other team has a player like him.  He sets the best screens and is the key to their pick and roll action with his ability to pass the ball and find open teammates.  And he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA. 

The Hornets just recently got their star PG Kemba Walker back in the lineups nd promptly crushed Orlando 104-94 last time out.  Now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days and will be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 12 days.  They are running on fumes right now, which makes the fact that they are without Green and Curry even worse. 

Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in road games when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake +10 

After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season.

Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season.  Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring.  Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch.

Drake is off to a 4-3 start this season despite playing a rough schedule.  They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their three losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado, a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha and an 89-96 road loss at Wyoming in overtime as 10.5-point dogs.  They are more than capable of staying within 10 points of South Dakota here Wednesday.

I think South Dakota is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just played a dream game at Duke last time out and showed well, losing 80-96 as 23-point underdogs.  Now they will have a hard time getting back up emotionally to face Drake.  I think they’ll be flat most the game and will be lucky to squeak out a win, let alone win by double-digits.

Drake is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Drake is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4 or more boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Drake Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2 

The Vanderbilt Commodores will be hungry for a win tonight.  They have opened 3-5 against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to the likes of USC, Virginia, Seton Hall, Kansas State and Belmont.  They also haven’t covered a single spread this season, which has them undervalued. 

But it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense they would be struggling like this because they brought back three starters and three double-digit scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance.  This is a team that made the NCAA Tournament in Bryce Drew’s first season last year, a feat that had never been accomplished previously in Vanderbilt history. 

I think the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders get a lot of respect because they made the NCAA Tournament the past two years and made some noise.  But they loss two of their core players from those two teams in JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg last year) and Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  They aren’t nearly as strong as the last two versions. 

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings between these teams.  Roll with Vanderbilt Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 

The tax you have to pay to back the Boston Celtics right now is very steep.  That’s because they have opened 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS through their first 25 games of the season.  You are going to be getting no discounts on them with the betting public catching on already. 

Conversely, you can get a great price on the Dallas Mavericks due to their 7-17 SU & 10-14 ATS start.  But they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are a much better team than that record would indicate. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have beaten Milwaukee by 32, Oklahoma City by 16, the Clippers by 26 and the Nuggets by 17 during this streak.  They are not only beating teams, they are crushing them.  And their three losses have all come by 8 points or fewer in their last eight games. 

One of those was a 102-110 home loss in overtime to this same Celtics team on November 20th, meaning the Mavericks will be motivated for revenge just two weeks later.  And the Celtics have a huge road game at San Antonio on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest. 

Dallas is 26-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Boston is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off three or more consecutive home wins are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Boston.  The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +23 

The Xavier Musketeers are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Kent State.  They are coming off a huge 89-76 home win over their biggest rivals in the Cincinnati Bearcats.  That game is a war every year, and they certainly won’t be nearly as excited to play Kent State tonight. 

I also think the Musketeers are way overvalued right now due to going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games of the season.  The betting public has caught on to this ranked team, and you won’t be getting many bargains with them in the near future. 

The Kent State Golden Flashes are expected to compete for a MAC title this season.  They went 22-14 last year and returned three starters from that team, including Jaylin Walker (15.8 ppg).  They also return four key reserves and have a ton of experience coming back.  They are off to a 5-3 start this season. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last two seasons.  Kent State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. MAC foes.  Take Kent State Wednesday. 

20* Wizards/Blazers NBATV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -5.5 

It’s safe to say the Portland Trail Blazers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset home losses to the Bucks and Pelicans.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, fatigued Washington Wizards tonight. 

The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an ugly 69-114 loss in Utah last night.  They remain without John Wall, and have gone just 3-6 in their last nine games overall.  Now they’re up against a fresh, pissed off Blazers team that has had two days off coming into this one. 

The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS versus teams who average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Blazers have been talking about their lack of assists and why the offense has struggled recently, so look for them to play more team-oriented bacsketball tonight. 

"That's a reflection of how our offense is struggling,” Damian Lillard said. "We're not shooting the ball as well, we're not scoring as well, and so the assists are down.”  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -3.5 

It hasn’t taken Jamie Dixon long to turn around TCU’s program.  He made an immediate impact at his alma mater last year as the Frogs went 24-15, won more than 20 games for the first time since 2004-05, and won the NIT title.  Now they have all five starters back and are expected to contend for one of the top spots in the Big 12 this season. 

The Horned Frogs are off to a promising 8-0 start.  Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits.  Now they’ll be anxious to avenge a 74-59 loss at SMU as 3-point underdogs last season.  Now they are only 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

TCU should be a bigger favorite considering all that SMU lost in the offseason.  The Mustangs lost three double-digit scorers in Semi Ojeleye (19.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Sterling Brown (13.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Ben Moore (11.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Ojeleye was a first-round pick of the Boston Celtics. 

SMU is 7-2 this season, but the losses are certainly concerning.  They’ve already lost to both Western Kentucky and Northern Iowa on a neutral court.  Now this is the best team they have faced yet in TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with SMU.  Take TCU Tuesday. 

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +6 

Let’s look at this number from a value perspective.  Pittsburgh was only a 4-point home favorite over Cincinnati the first time these teams played this season.  Now the Steelers are 6-point road favorites in the rematch.  Factor in home-field advantage, and this line indicates the Steelers would be 12-point favorites at home if they played again right now.  That’s a whopping 8-point adjustment mostly based off public perception, and it shows that the value is clearly with the Bengals. 

Another reason I like the Bengals here is that their season is on the line.  The Bengals have saved their season by earning back-to-back victories over Denver and Cleveland to get to 5-6 on the season.  They are now just one game back of the 6-5 Ravens for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  They certainly need this game more than the Steelers right now. 

The Steelers showed last week that they are vulnerable.  The Packers gave them all they wanted in a 31-28 victory on a last-second field goal.  The Steelers are 14-point favorites in that game.  They let Brett Hundley do whatever he wanted.  Their defense is missing several key players, including CB Joe Haden.  Not to mention, S Mike Mitchell, LB Ryan Shazier, CB Cam Sutton and LB James Harrison are all questionable. 

Now the Steelers will be up agains the underrated Andy Dalton, who actually has a better quarterback rating than Carson Wentz does over the past five weeks.  Dalton is completing 62% of his passes for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season. 

I would argue that the Bengals have the better defense right now.  They are giving up just 19.5 points per game on the season, including 17.6 points per game at home.  The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranking right up there with the Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens and Eagles.  This is an elite defense and one that doesn’t get the respect that some of these other top defenses do. 

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh star receiver Antonio Brown has a nagging toe injury that forced him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday.  He is going to be a game-time decision.  Jeremy Fowler reported that the Steelers are preparing to play without him.  Martavis Bryant would stay in his role, while JuJu Smith-Shuster would likely take Brown’s role if it came to it. 

The Steelers might be wise to rest Brown given their positioning.  They are tied with the Patriots are 9-2, and 3rd place in the AFC is 7-4.  So even if they lost this game they would still be in line for a first-round bye.  They would also be in line for home-field advantage because they actually host New England in three weeks.  They get three of their final four games at home.  So as long as they win out following a loss this week, they would still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December games.  Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marvin Lewis is 33-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak.  But they are just 5-6 ATS during this streak as most of those wins have been close.  In fact, nine of those 11 wins have come by 11 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer. 

Conversely, the Bulls are undervalued right now due their 8-game losing streak, so it’s the perfect storm.  But six of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  And they have had some really hard luck of late, losing their last four games by 1, 1, 5 and 7 points.  This team is quietly improving under Fred Hoiberg. 

The Bulls have been a thorn in Cleveland’s side in recent years.  In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They only lost 112-119 in Cleveland as 15-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  The Bulls are actually 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with Cleveland!   

The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS as a favorite this season.  Cleveland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 when playing against a team with a winning % of 25% or worse.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets fit one of my favorite situations to play in the NBA.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Nets and Hawks.  They just played on Saturday with the Hawks pulling the 114-102 upset in Brooklyn.  Now, it’s revenge time for the Nets, who will clearly be the more motivated team in the rematch. 

There’s no question the Nets are simply the better team.  They are 8-14 on the season compared to 5-17 for Atlanta.  The telling stat is that Brooklyn is 14-8 ATS in 22 games this year, including 8-4 ATS in road games.  This team has been undervalued all season, and they should not be underdogs here after being 4.5-point home favorites against the Hawks on Saturday. 

The Nets are 41-22 ATS in their last 63 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Hawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record are 78-45 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Monday. 

15* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites against the Michigan Wolverines in this Big Ten matchup Monday.  I think this is a Buckeyes team on the rise under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann. 

The Buckeyes are off to a 6-3 start against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to Gonzaga, Butler and Clemson, and wins over Stanford and Wisconsin.  The 83-58 win as 7.5-point dogs at Wisconsin was mighty impressive on Saturday and shows just how undervalued this team is right now. 

Michigan has played a much softer schedule to this point and is 7-2.  The Wolverines lost a lot from last year’s team that won the Big Ten Tournament and made a run in the NCAA Tournament.  They only beat Central Michigan by 7 at home, lost to one of the worst teams in the SEC in LSU, and were blown out by 15 at UNC. 

Ohio State has won 14 of its last 17 home meetings with Michigan.  Michigan is 5-14 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  Ohio State is 9-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Ohio State Monday. 

20* Eagles/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +6 

What would this line have been before the season?  Seattle -7 is my guess.  That’s how much the public perception of these two have changed heading into Week 13 of the season.  Certainly the Eagles have earned that respect with their 10-1 record, but they should not be favored by 6 points in Seattle this week. The value is clearly with the home underdog Seahawks. 

The Seahawks haven’t been blown out all year.  They are 7-4 with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  They haven’t lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  Russell Wilson always keeps his team in games.  He is guiding a Seattle offense that is putting up 28.8 points, 413 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play at home this season. 

A lot has been made about the injuries to Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have actually played very well in their past two games despite the injuries.  They have given up fewer than 300 total yards in four straight games.  They allowed just 244 to Washington, 290 to Arizona, 279 to Arizona and 280 to San Francisco.  These injuries haven’t affected their defense as much as the media is letting on. 

I realize the Seahawks have lost two straight home games, but they were two fluky losses.  They outgained the Redskins by 193 yards in their 14-17 loss and they outgained the Falcons by 81 yards in their 31-34 loss.  I think those misleading finals, clearly two games the Seahawks should have won, have them undervalued right now.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t lost three straight home games since 2008.

Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season, and that’s why the betting public just loves them right now.  And they have won four straight games by 20-plus points.  But all four came against cupcakes in Denver, San Francisco, Chicago and a Dallas team that was a mess at the time they played them.  And four of the last five games for the Eagles have been at home.  It will be much more difficult for them to play at such a high level on the road here against the 12th man in Seattle.  This is a huge step up in class for the Eagles.

Pete Caroll is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 20-6 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in December games over the past six seasons.  Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Philadelphia. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

15* Warriors/Heat NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 219.

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Miami Heat Sunday.  The Warriors are 5th in defensive efficiency, while the Heat are 12th. 

With the Heat playing at home today, they will control the tempo.  And their best chance to win is to limit possessions.  The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo as it is, ranking tied for 20th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game. 

The recent series history really shows there is value with the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings over the past two seasons.  They have combined for 177, 207 and 202 points in those three games for an average of 195.3 combined points per game.  That’s a whopping 24 points less than tonight’s posted total of 219.5, showing there is real value with the UNDER. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 after allowing 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +7 

The spot for the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t be worse.  They are coming off two straight huge games against the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints the past two weeks.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Arizona Cardinals now. 

Not to mention, the Rams play the Eagles next week and the Seahawks the following week, so this is a massive lookahead spot of them.  This is the sandwich game here against the Cardinals, and I just don’t think they will have the focus or energy it’s going to take to put Arizona away by more than a touchdown. 

Conversely, this is a huge game for the Cardinals.  They sit at 5-6 right now and a win here would keep them in the playoff hunt.  They picked up a big 27-24 upset win over the Jaguars last week, limiting the Jaguars to just 229 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort. 

Blaine Gabbert has given this offense new life, scoring 21 and 27 points against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, the past two weeks.  He went 22-of-34 for 244 yards against Houston and 22-of-38 for 236 yards against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense.  He has played so well that head coach Bruce Arians has given him a vote of confidence for possibly being their starter next season. 

Speaking of Arians, I love backing his teams when they are home underdogs.  In fact, Arians is 11-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  His teams are actually winning these games by 3.0 points per game on average.  His teams simply come to play against the best teams when they are counted out at home. 

The Cardinals will want revenge from their 33-0 loss to the Rams in London in their first meeting this season.  Carson Palmer got hurt in that game and it spiraled out of control.  The Rams probably just feel like they have to show up to win, so they won’t be as focused as Arizona here. 

And from a value standpoint, it’s easy to see that the value is with the Cardinals when you compare this line to the line in London.  The Rams were only 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in London.  Now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  When you factor in home-field advantage, this is basically a 7-point adjustment as the line says the Rams would be -10 on a neutral now.  The value is clearly with Arizona.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1 

Bryce Drew became the first head coach in Vanderbilt history to make the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament in his first season last year.  He returned three starters from that team and three double-digits scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, (13.9 ppg), Jeff Roberson (10.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Riley LaChance (10.5 ppg, 48.6% 3-pointers). 

I think the Commodores are being way undervalued right now due to starting 3-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have played a brutal schedule with their four losses coming to Belmont, USC, Virginia and Seton Hall.  They are clearly battle-tested and ready to take down Kansas State. 

Conversely, Kansas State is being overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  But the schedule couldn’t have been much easier as the six wins came against American, Missouri-KC, UC-Irvine, Northern Arizona, George Washington and Oral Roberts.  They lost to the best team they played in Arizona State.  And now the Wildcats will be playing their first true road game of the season, which is always difficult. 

Drew is 10-1 ATS as a home dog or PK in all games he has coached.  This line opened Kansas State -2 and has been bet to Vanderbilt -1 at this point, a full 3-point move.  I think this move is warranted and the wrong team opened the favorite.  The Commodores pick up a home win and cover here today.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3 

Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the San Francisco 49ers this week is a massive upgrade at quarterback over C.J. Beathard.  It’s worth at least 4 points to the line, if not more.  Beathard was the worst quarterback in the NFL when he was in there.  The 49ers didn’t even score a touchdown until he got hurt last week against Seattle in the closing seconds, and Garoppolo came in and threw two passes, including a touchdown pass. 

The 49ers now have new life with Garoppolo at the helm.  This team has shown no signs of quitting despite their 1-10 record.  Keep in mind they lost five games in a row all by a field goal or less back when they had a competent QB in Brian Hoyer.  Now Garopollo is an upgrade over Hoyer too.  And he’s from the Chicago area, so he won’t be phased at all by the weather in Chicago. 

While the outlook is positive for the 49ers right now, it couldn’t be much worse for the Bears.  Fans have been calling for John Fox’s head for weeks.  The Bears have now lost four straight, including their 3-31 laugher at Philadelphia last week that was the last straw for fans of the team.  They were outgained by 280 yards by the Eagles and held to just 140 total yards in defeat. 

The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but their defense was respectable up until the last few weeks.  These injuries have made this a below-average Chicago defense now.  There’s no question the 49ers are the better offensive team with Garoppolo, and they are probably the better defensive team now due to these injuries for Chicago. 

Speaking of Fox, he is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  That’s right, the Bears have lost all six games outright in which they have been a favorite under his watch.  They are losing these games by a shocking 9.6 points per game on average as well.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2.5 

Certainly the situation favors the Detroit Lions here.  They come in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Baltimore Ravens are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  However, I think this situation is being factored into the line too much, and getting the Ravens as only 2.5-point favorites is an excellent value. 

The Ravens are rolling right now, making their push toward the playoffs.  They will rise to the occasion in this difficult situation because they are built for December football under John Harbaugh.  The Ravens have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall with shutout victories over Miami (40-0) and Green Bay (23-0), a 23-16 victory over Houston and a narrow 20-23 loss at Tennessee. 

The Lions are a fraudulent 6-5 team.  They are getting outgained by 25 yards per game on the season and by 0.3 yards per play on the year.  Their defense allowed 359.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, ranking 25th in the NFL defensively from a yards-per-play basis. 

Baltimore relies heavily on one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens rank 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.8) allowed, 7th in yards per game (305.7) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.0 points per game).  The offense is coming around in scoring 20-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

Matthew Stafford was hobbled with an ankle injury against Minnesota last week that forced him out of the game.  He would return, but he clearly didn’t look right.  Stafford is a gamer and will play through the ankle injury, but he’ll be far from 100%.  And he may not have top running back Ameer Abdullah, guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson by his side this week.  All three are questionable. 

Jim Caldwell is 0-6 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of Detroit.  The Lions are 16-38 ATS in their last 54 after having won three of their last four games.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.   

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won two out of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Sunday. 

20* Pelicans/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 108-114 in Utah last night.  And now they will be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who left the Utah game with an ankle injury and is doubtful tonight. 

The Blazers will be focused after losing 91-103 at home to Milwaukee on Thursday.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They are 100% healthy now, which is a big reason they’ve gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall coming in. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 home meetings with the Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Portland. 

The Pelicans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on no rest.  New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games.  The Pelicans are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games following two or more consecutive overs.  They are losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin +6 

Wisconsin just can’t get any love despite being unbeaten.  Sure, they have played a softer schedule than most Power 5 teams, but they’ve also taken care of business and have outgained all 12 opponents during their 12-0 start.  Nothing about their 12-0 record has been fluky as all 12 wins have come by 8 points or more, including a whopping 10 wins by 14 points or more. 

The oddsmakers just haven’t been able to catch up with Wisconsin down the stretch, either, because the public perception on them has been so poor.  All the Badgers have done is go 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, covering the spread by a combined 45 points to absolutely demolish these spreads. 

Now the Badgers are getting nearly a touchdown against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  I really think the value is with the Badgers in a game they probably win outright.  You can bet head coach Paul Chryst is going to be playing the no respect card with this team.  I think they are ready to take that next step and make their way into the four-team playoff. 

Ohio State just gets love from the betting public because of the name on their jersey.  But the Buckeyes have been far from impressive in their ‘step up’ games.  They are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Urban Meyer ‘mystique’ is no longer there when playing these bigger games. 

The Buckeyes lost at home to Oklahoma, needed a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Penn State at home, and trailed Michigan most of the way last week on the road.  Not to mention, they lost 24-55 at Iowa and were outgained by 116 yards.  That’s the same Iowa team that Wisconsin beat 38-14 the next week while outgaining the Hawkeyes by 316 yards. 

J.T. Barrett suffered a knee injury against Michigan last week that forced him to leave the game.  He then had surgery on his knee this week, but he is expected to play.  That’s not a quarterback I’d want to be backing with my money with the fact that he actually had surgery the week of a game.  Barrett won’t be anywhere near 100% for this game. 

It’s also a revenge game for Wisconsin after losing in overtime at home to Ohio State last year.  The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off three straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in four straight games over the last two seasons.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Troy/Arkansas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy PK 

This is a huge revenge game for the Troy Trojans.  Last year, they were expected to win the Sun Belt and only needed to beat Arkansas State to do so.  They fell flat on their faces and lost 3-35 at home despite being 10-point favorites. 

This is a Troy team that returned 14 starters from that team and a ton of experience.  They are the best team in the Sun Belt in my opinion, and this is a scary team when they are motivated.  Now they prove they are the best team with a win over Arkansas State here.   

We saw what they could do when they were motivated when they beat LSU outright on the road as 20.5-point underdogs earlier this year.  That’s an LSU team that has since gone on to go 5-1 with its only loss coming to Alabama in a game where they actually outgained the Crimson Tide. 

The Trojans are the fresher team as they had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Texas State 62-9 last week.  Meanwhile, Arkansas State has had to play three straight weeks and is coming off a draining 67-50 shootout win over Louisiana Monroe.  I like the freshness of Troy better and the motivation of Troy better in this game. 

Troy has played the tougher schedule this season, yet still has put up the better numbers.  The Trojans are averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.7 yards per play on defense.  To compare, Arkansas State is at 6.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  With the Trojans having by far the superior defense, giving up 16.8 points per game this season compared to 24.2 for Arkansas State, that’s where this game is going to be decided. 

Troy is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after outgaining its last two opponents by 125 or more total yards each.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Troy Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +10.5 

After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season. 

Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season.  Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring.  Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch. 

Drake is off to a 4-2 start this season despite playing a rough schedule.  They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their two losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado and a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha.  They are more than capable of staying within 10.5 points of Wyoming here Saturday. 

The Wyoming Cowboys are 5-2 this season.  They have lost their two step up games to Cincinnati (53-78) and at Denver (78-88).  Their 83-70 win over New Mexico Highlands in between those two losses leaves a lot to be desired.  I just see no way these Cowboys should be favored by double-digits against this improving Drake squad. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Drake) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in December games are 263-177 (59.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a. Winning % above .600.  Bet Drake Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Nets OVER 218.5 

Two teams who love to push the tempo square off Saturday.  The Nets rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game, while the Hawks rank 11th at 100.3 possessions per game.  So this game is going to be played at a fast pace without question. 

And both teams certainly aren’t concerned about playing much defense.  The Nets rank 25th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 26th, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions. 

These teams already played to 220 combined points in their first and only meeting this season when the Nets won 116-104 at home on October 22nd.  And they got to 220 despite that fact that Atlanta shot just 34.0% from the field. 

Atlanta is 27-9 to the OVER in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive home losses.  The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2 

Buzz Williams has his best team yet in his fourth season at Virginia Tech.  The Hokies returned four starters from last season, including three who averaged 9.2 points per game or more. 

The Hokies are off to a 6-1 start this season with all six since coming by 24 or more points, including impressive wins over Washington (103-79) and Iowa (79-55).  The Hokies simply have to be bigger favorites today against Ole Miss. 

The Ole Miss Rebels are clearly not as strong as the Hokies this season.  They already have losses to Utah and South Dakota State (at home), and they have narrow home wins over Eastern Kentucky 85-75 as 17.5-point favorites and Georgia State 77-72 as 11-point favorites.  They aren’t nearly in the same class as Virginia Tech. 

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Hokies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -2.5 

Quietly, the Georgia Southern Eagles are playing their best football of the season down the stretch.  They opened 0-9, but have since put together two huge efforts the past two weeks.  They beat South Alabama 52-0 as 6.5-point home dogs and LA Lafayette 34-24 as 4-point road dogs, covering the spread by a combined 72.5 points! 

It’s clear to me that Georgia Southern is being mis-priced in the market place right now as only 2.5-point favorites over Coastal Carolina this week.  Coastal Carolina is also 2-9 on the season, but this team is nowhere near as good as Georgia Southern right now.  They are getting too much respect for beating Idaho 13-7 last week, but that was an Idaho team without starting QB Matt Linehan, who means everything to the Vandals. 

Coastal Carolina is now without its top two quarterbacks in Tyler Keane and Dalton Demos, who are both doubtful to play Saturday.  That leaves 3rd stringer Kilton Anderson to take the snaps Saturday for the Chanticleers.  Anderson went just 11-of-23 for 100 yards against Idaho last week.  I see no way they can put up enough points to match Georgia Southern, which has scored a combined 86 points the past two weeks. 

The Chanticleers have zero home-field advantage and there certainly won’t be many fans who turn out to watch this 2-9 team.  Coastal Carolina is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season, scoring just 18.6 points per game and giving up 35.2 points per game, getting outscored by 16.6 points per game.  The have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games. 

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COASTAL CAROLINA) - after a game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday. 

15* T’Wolves/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and five of their last six overall, with coincidentally their lone win coming 108-91 over Golden State as 5-point dogs.  They can turn it on when they want to. 

I certainly think the Thunder will turn it on tonight considering their will be out for revenge from two losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves already this season.  They lost at the buzzer 113-115 at home to Minnesota on October 22nd and 116-119 at Minnesota on October 27th.  They haven’t forgotten and will be wanting to avenge those two heartbreakers. 

The Timberwolves have certainly been overvalued here of late.  They have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  A lot of that probably has to do with fatigue as they haven’t had two straight days off since November 9-10, and they will be playing their 12th game in 21 days here tonight. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will be playing just its 2nd game in 6 days here.  Plays on favorites revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 144-90 (61.5%) ATS since 1996.  Minnesota is 2-11 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Thunder Friday. 

20* Stanford/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on USC -3 

The USC Trojans are doing it again.  After a slow start to the season just like last year, they have now reeled off four straight victories to close the season with three of those coming by double-digits.  They are now 10-2 and easily the best team in the Pac-12.  They prove that with a second victory over Stanford this season. 

What has been most impressive about this strong finish by the Trojans is that they didn’t have a bye week all year.  Their bye week came after their 12th game in Week 13 last week.  That gives them a massive advantage in rest and preparation heading into the Pac-12 Championship Game getting two full weeks to prepare for Stanford. 

Meanwhile, Stanford had to play a physical game Saturday night against Nortre Dame.  The Cardinal won’t hat game 38-20, but that was a completely misleading final.  The Fighting Irish actually outgained them 405 to 328 for the game, or by 77 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the key difference.  I think that misleading 38-20 final has Stanford overvalued coming into this game now. 

USC already beat Stanford 42-24 in their first meeting this season to end a 3-game losing streak in this series.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  USC racked up a whopping 623 total yards on this Stanford defense, limiting the Cardinal to just 342 total yards and outgaining them by 281 total yards.  Expect more of the same in the rematch. 

The Cardinal are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Stanford is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Simply put, the Cardinal aren’t nearly as good as their 9-3 record suggests.  They are actually getting outgained by 7 yards per game on the season.  USC is outgaining foes by 79 yards per game on the season and is legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  Bet USC Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge against the Indiana Pacers from their 104-107 road loss at Indiana on November 24th one week ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around and should have no problem winning and covering. 

Since that loss, the Raptors have absolutely obliterated their two opponents.  They won 112-78 in Atlanta and 126-113 at home against Charlotte.  And the Raptors will be rested and ready to go now as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here, and they are coming off a 97-118 loss in Houston on Wednesday night.  The Pacers could be without one of their best players in forward Myles Turner, who is questionable with a knee injury. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto has won its last two home meetings with Indiana by 11 and 25 points.  The Pacers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3 

Quietly, the Portland Trail Blazers have gotten 100% healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, which is impressive when you consider they played six of those nine games on the road. 

Now they’ve had two days off since winning 103-91 in New York on Monday.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and happy to be back at home for the first time since November 18th.  The Blazers have a huge home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites here against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

This is a Bucks team that is not healthy right now and not playing well.  The Bucks have lost three of their last five with all three losses coming by double-digits to Dallas (79-111), Washington (88-99) and Utah (108-121).  Their only two wins during this stretch came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Phoenix and Sacramento. 

The Blazers will want revenge from their 110-113 loss in Milwaukee on October 21st in their first meeting this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bucks haven’t won back-to-back games against Portland since 2012-13.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -1.5 

The Dallas Cowboys are an absolute mess right now playing without two of their best players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, among others.  They have lost three straight games all via blowout, and there’s a reason they aren’t favored at home here tonight against the Redskins. 

In the past three games without Elliott, their offense has sputtered.  They are averaging just 7.3 points per game, 235 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Dak Prescott has thrown five interceptions in his past two games, which is more than the four he threw all of his 2016 rookie season.  Opponents don’t have to respect the play-action without Elliott, so Prescott is constantly under duress. 

The defense has taken a big hit without Lee, who is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers, which is saying a lot.  The Cowboys have given up 30.7 points per game, 411.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three.   

With Lee on the field, opponents have an 89.3 passer rating, a 42.4 total QBR, an 8-5 TD/INT ratio, average 3.5 per carry and 1.6 yards before first contact.  With Lee off the field this season, opponents have a 107.1 passer rating, a 69.2 total QBR, a 10-0 TD/INT ratio, average 5.8 yards per carry and 3.6 yards before first contact. 

The Redskins have fought through injuries in recent weeks to go 2-2 with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants, and narrow losses to the Vikings and Saints.  They limited the Giants to just 170 total yards in their 20-10 win last week.  They are now getting healthier and should have a few more pieces back this week. 

Kirk Cousins is playing great football with the second-most passing yards (3,038) in the league.  Cousins has torched the Cowboys for 625 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two starts against them. Samaje Perine has rushed for 100-plus yards in consecutive games and has found his role in this offense.  The Redskins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. 

The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the past three seasons.  Jason Garrett is 0-9 ATS in home game after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home game after a low by 10 points or more as the coach of Dallas. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Redskins Thursday. 

15* Texas Tech/Seton Hall CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Seton Hall -1.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are absolutely loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They returned each of their top four scorers and four guys who scored in double-digits last year, including three players who scored at least 15.2 points per game. 

The Pirates are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point to Rhode Island in a game that the Rams simply won due to getting hot from the 3-point line.  They beat Indiana by 16 and Vanderbilt by 13 this season and are legitimately one of the best teams in the Big East this season, if not in the entire country. 

I think Texas Tech is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to its 6-0 start.  But the schedule has been extremely soft with home wins over South Alabama, Maine, Wofford and Savannah State, and neutral court wins against Boston College and Northwestern.  This is a big step up in class here for the Red Raiders and I don’t expect them to handle it well. 

Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off three straight wins by 15 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games.  Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 neutral site games.  The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big East opponents.  Roll with Seton Hall Thursday. 

15* Miami/Minnesota ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

Richard Pitino has a real contender here in Minnesota.  This is his best team yet with five returning starters from last year.  They have certainly looked the part of Big Ten contenders up to this point. 

The Gophers have opened 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.  Six of their seven wins have come by 12 points or more, with the lone exception being an 89-84 win over a very solid Alabama team as 4.5-point favorites.  They won at Providence 86-74 as 2.5-point dogs. 

The Miami Hurricanes are also 5-0 this season, but their schedule has been so soft that they have only had one lined game.  Their five wins have come against Gardner Webb, Navy, Florida A&M, LaSalle and North Florida.  This will be their first true road game of the season. 

Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two years.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 7-plus per game over the last three seasons.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only two losses came to Boston (in OT) and San Antonio (by 7 on the road), two of the best teams in the league. 

Their three wins were mighty impressive, too.  They beat Milwaukee 111-79 as 6-point home underdogs.  The upset Memphis 95-94 as 6-point road dogs.  And they crushed Oklahoma City 97-81 as 6-point home dogs.  This is a team we clearly want to be betting on right now. 

Conversely, the Brooklyn Nets are a team we want to be fading due to their injury situation.  The Nets are playing without four of their best players in Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe right now.  Not to mention, DeMarre Carroll is dealing with a respiratory illness.  I see no way they are even competitive tonight. 

The Nets will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and they are just 14-28 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  After upsetting the Warriors 108-91 at home, they clearly had a letdown in losing back-to-back games to the Pistons and Mavericks.  Now they’ve had three days off since losing to Dallas and will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

"I think that the last two games, coming after the Warriors game, we just really haven't gotten going offensively," Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. "In periods of time, we just really haven't gotten going. At some point, and hopefully soon, we can get it going offensively.”

The Thunder should be able to get right against an Orlando Magic team that is 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Magic have rarely been competitive during this skid, losing six times by double-digits.  I think you can chalk up another double-digit loss here tonight.

The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Orlando is 9-22-1 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Denver Nuggets aren't nearly the team they were before with Paul Millsap.  They have missed him quite a bit since he suffered a torn ligament in his left wrist.  They also have two key players in Wilson Chandler and Mason Plumlee questionable for tonight's game against the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are better team with Rudy Gobert, so his loss is big.  However, they have surprised me quite a bit with how well they have played without him.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digits victories.  They beat Orlando 125-85 on the road, and Chicago (110-80) and Milwaukee (121-108) at home.

Utah simply owns Denver in Salt Lake City.  The Jazz are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Nuggets.  The Jazz have won 37 of their past 45 home meetings with the Nuggets overall.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit win.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA at 3-15 on the season.  However, they get a rare opportunity for a win here against another awful team in the Phoenix Suns, who are 7-14 on the season.  I look for the Bulls to take advantage and win this game at home here tonight.

The Bulls will be out for revenge from a 105-113 loss at Phoenix on November 19th just over a week ago.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  The Bulls have played a road-heavy schedule thus far with 11 road games compared to only seven at home.

The Suns have played a home-heavy schedule with 13 home games compared to just eight road games.  Phoenix plays zero defense as it is, especially on the road.  They are giving up 117.2 points per game on the road this season.  The Bulls are giving up just 99.3 points per game at home.

The Suns are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Phoenix is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Suns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +7.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders are way overvalued right now due to their 7-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  This is a team that returned only one starter from last year and lost their two best players in Alec Peters (23.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Shane Hammink (15.1 ppg).

Utah State will be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season.  The Aggies brought back four starters from last year in Koby McEwen (14.9 ppg), Sam Merrill (9.4 ppg), Alexis Dargenton (4.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 34 blocks) and Norbert Janicek (6.7 ppg, 58% FG's).

Utah State is 4-3, but the three losses were all competitive in true road games against Weber State (59-65), Gonzaga (66-79) and Portland State (79-83).  Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, and Portland State has looked amazing against elite competition and will probably win their conference.

The Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. Missouri Valley opponents.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Utah State Tuesday.

15* Texans/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  It has allowed them to put together some strong performances here of late.  They currently sit at 5-5 and right in the thick of the AFC playoff race, so this is a huge game for them on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have won two of their last three while outscoring their last three opponents a combined 83-23 in the process.  They have shut out Miami 40-0 and Green Bay 23-0 during this stretch behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens only allow 17.1 points per game, 306 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

The Texans have a different outlook.  They were looking great with Deshaun Watson running the show, but since he got hurt they have fallen off the map.  They are now 4-6 with essentially zero chance of making the playoffs.  And I'm not about to give them much credit for beating injury-ravaged Arizona last week at home because they were trailing in the 4th quarter of that game.

Tom Savage continues to prove that he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  This offense has been a shell of its former self without Watson.  And Houston's defense is no longer one of the better units in the NFL with all of the season-ending injuries on that side of the ball to the likes of J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing and others.  The Texans give up 26.2 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.

Late-season byes are huge for NFL teams, and the Ravens got one in Week 10.  They returned from that bye to crush the Packers 23-0 on the road last week.  They limited the Packers to just 265 total yards while forcing five turnovers.  So now they are the fresher team in this matchup as the Texans haven't had their bye back in Week 7 and have gone 1-3 since.

Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a win by 21 points or more.  The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.  John Harbaugh always has his teams playing their best late in the season.  I look for Baltimore to continue playing well on MNF and to beat the hapless Texans by more than a touchdown.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as 7-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics tonight.  This team has been flying under the radar all season, going 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their 18 games.  They just continue to get no respect from oddsmakers night in and night out.

Detroit already has impressive upset road wins over the Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder this season.  Now the Pistons are in a great spot here as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days, so they are well-rested and ready to go.  They beat Oklahoma City 99-98 as 8.5-point road dogs in their only other game over the past seven days.

The Boston Celtics are starting to get massive respect from oddsmakers thanks to their 18-1 SU & 16-2-1 ATS run over their past 19 games.  It's time to start fading this team now at hefty price tags like this one.  They now have a target on their back and it will be tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves.

Detroit has played Boston extremely tough on the road lately.  The Pistons are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Boston.  The Pistons haven't lost by more than 7 points at Boston in any of the last 10 makings, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing Detroit pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* Cavs/76ers NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1

Despite being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 11-7 this season, the Philadelphia 76ers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are once again home underdogs here to the Cleveland Cavaliers in what will be a statement game for the 76ers to prove that they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs.

Philadelphia has gone 11-4 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  I has covered six straight coming in.  And now the 76ers are expected to get back star point guard Ben Simmons from an elbow injury tonight.  Star center Joel Embiid is also expected to play through an illness, so the 76ers are at full strength right now aside from Markelle Fultz.

The Cavaliers have been overvalued all season and continue to be.  They are 12-7 SU but just 6-12-1 ATS in their first 17 games.  They are missing three key players in Derrick Rose, Tristan Thompson and Isaiah Thomas, and they just aren't talented enough to win and cover games consistently without these three.  It also doesn't help that the Cavs rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.9 points per 100 possessons.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Philadelphia is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cavs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia.  Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* UNC/Michigan State ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1

The Michigan State Spartans are absolutely loaded this season.  They have opened 4-1 with their only loss coming to Duke 88-81, which is perhaps the only team that is better than them in the entire country this season.  They are battle-tested and ready to win the PK 80 Invitational with a win over UNC in the Championship Game.

The UNC Tar Heels only returned two starters this season compared to four for the Spartans.  UNC hasn't played a very difficult schedule at all during its 5-0 start with wins over Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Stanford, Portland and Arkansas.  They will be taking a big step up in class here against the Spartans.

Roy Williams is 4-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog as the coach of UNC.  The Tar Heels are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies OVER 210.5

The OVER is 6-0 in Brooklyn's last six games overall.  They have combined for at least 211 points with all six opponents and are averaging 227.5 combined points during this stretch.  I think there's value with the OVER 210.5 Sunday in game games against Memphis.

The reason the Nets play in so many high-scoring games is because they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, averaging 106.5 possessions per game.  They are also 26th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.3 points per 100 possessions.  Even the offensively-challenged Grizzlies will hang a big number on them here Sunday.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  The two meetngs last year saw 215 and 231 combined points.  And the Nets are playing at an even faster pace this season than last, so they should have no problem topping 211 points in their first meeting of 2017-18.

Memphis is 24-8 OVER after being outrebounded by 20 or more boards in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 14-4 OVER when playing six or less games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 37-18-1 in Nets last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The New Orleans Saints are simply overvalued right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have become public darlings.  They found themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Redskins last week, and they needed two late touchdowns to escape with a 34-31 victory.  Now they are only 2.5-point dogs on the road to the Rams this week, who are at least at their level.  I think the value is with the Rams as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week.  He guided the Redskins to 31 points and 456 total yards and played well enough to win.  But a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  The Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro coming into the game.  Then they lost three more starters throughout the game.  They lost leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and their rookie first-round pick in CB Marshon Lattimore.  Now all four players are either questionable or out this week.

Jared Goff and the Rams' high-octane attack should be able to exploit these injuries as well.  The Rams average 30.3 points and 375 yards per game as one of the league's top offenses.  And I like the way this Rams defense is playing, giving up just over 13 points per game in their last six games.  They are allowing just 14.7 PPG at home.

The Saints have mostly been beating up on cupcake opponents during their eight-game winning streak.  This Rams team will be the best opponent they have faced since getting blown out by the Patriots in Week 2.  The Saints also lost by double-digits to the Vikings in Week 1, the same Vikings team the Rams lost to last week.  So this will be a step up in class for New Orleans against a motivated Rams team looking to contend for a first-round bye, and getting the tiebreaker over the Saints here would go a long way to accomplishing that.

Plays on home favorites (LA Rams) - after having won three of their last four games against a hot opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Saints are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The home team has won four straight meetings and the home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their bye week.  They certainly went into their bye feeling rejuvenated after picking up their first win of the season, a 31-21 home victory over the New York Giants.  They certainly earned it and deserve a few more wins rather than being 1-9 on the season.

Remember, this team lost an NFL-record five straight games by 3 points or less earlier this year.  That's how close the 49ers are to being 6-4 rather than 1-9.  They should probably be somewhere in between.  And I think they are showing tremendous value this week as 7-point home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are only a shell of their former selves right now due to all their injuries.  CB Shaquill Griffin, CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor all all out.  They are so thin in the secondary that they had to re-sign former Seahawk Byron Maxwell, who shouldn't even be playing in the league.

The injuries go much deeper than that.  TE Jimmy Graham, OT Duane Brown, G Luke Joeckel, DE Dion Jordan, DT Jarran Reed, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Michael Wilhoite and LB D.J. Alexander are all questionable.  So not only are the decimated in the secondary, but they are in trouble in the front seven as well with five linemen or linebackers questionable, including their defensive leader in Wagner.

This defense was torched for 34 points by the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.  That means the Seahawks are not only ridiculously banged up, but now they will be working on a short week and won't have as much time to recover.  Meanwhile, the 49ers have had 13 days off since their last game and come into this game as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

One of those close losses by the 49ers came earlier this season in Seattle, when they lost 9-12 as 13.5-point underdogs.  They rushed for 159 yards on the Seahawks in that game and should find some success against their front seven again this week.  The bye week will be great for C.J. Beathard as well, and he should be able to take advantage of this cast of misfits in Seattle's secondary.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (winning 25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West opponents.  The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are once again overvalued this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14

Since Mitch Trubisky became the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, they have not lost a game by more than 8 points.  That's a span of six games dating back to a 20-17 home loss to Minnesota.  They upset both Baltimore on the road and Carolina at home.  Then they only lost by 8 at New Orleans, by 7 to Green Bay and by 3 to Detroit.

Trubisky isn't making a ton of big plays, but the key is that he isn't making the same costly mistakes that Mike Glennon was before him.  The Bears have only committed seven turnovers in six games since he took over, inlcuidng just three in their last four games.  That has allowed them to rely on their defense and running game, which are the two strengths of this team.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Philadelphia Eagles.  I was on the Eagles last week as my 25* Sunday Night Game of the Year.  I cashed that easy with a 37-9 win over the Cowboys.  But that was a great spot for the Eagles coming off their bye, and with all of the injuries to the Cowboys.  Now, after beating their biggest rivals, the Eagles will be flat this week against the Bears.

Philadelphia does have a good run defense, but it hasn't been tested much this season because teams have been playing from behind.  Opposing teams only average 19 rush attempts against Philadelphia.  Because I expect the Eagles to come out flat, the Bears won't have to abandon the running game.  They will be able to stick to their game plan, and that should be to run the ball 30-plus times to try and shorten the game and keep it close, which is precisely what they've been doing since Trubisky took over.  As a result, they've had a chance to win each of their last six games.

Will Philadelphia eventually win this game? Most likely.  But asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much this week.  There's no question that the Eagles are overvalued right now due to their 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS record.  Now this is the biggest favorites they have been all season, and it's only the second time they've been double-digit favorites.

John Fox is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago. The Bears are only losing to these good teams by an average of 2.6 points per game on average.  Fox takes pride in his defenses being able to contain the top offenses like the Eagles.  The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  I think the Eagles get more of a fight than they bargained for this week.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* Clippers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have no business being favored on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Clippers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only win came against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.  They are decimated by injuries as they are without two starters in Patrick Beverly and Danilo Gallinari.

The Kings don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers when playing at home as they still have one of the most udnerrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  That has shown of late.  The Kings are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, pulling off four upsets against Oklahoma City (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, Philadelphia (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs), Portland (86-82) as 7-point dogs and the LA Lakers (113-102) as 1-point dogs.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and playing great basketball.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers.  The wrong team is favored in this one folks as I believe Sacramento wins outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Kings Saturday.

15* Washington State/Washington Apple Cup No-Brainer on Washington State +10.5

The roles are reversed this year for Washington and Washington State.  Last year, a spot in the four-team playoff was on the line for Washington.  They routed Washington State 45-17 thanks to four turnovers from the Cougars.  That game meant a lot for the Huskies.

Now, a spot in the Pac-12 Championship is on the line for Washington State.  A victory over the Huskies will allow the Cougars to win the Pac-12 North for the first time.  If Washington prevails, then Stanford will be the North Division's representative against South winner USC.  So Washington is only trying to play the role of spoiler having already been eliminated from North contention due to a head-to-head loss to Stanford.  The Huskies won't be nearly as motivated in the spoiler role after playing in the four-team playoff last year with a lot more at stake in the Apple Cup.

This is also a great spot for the Cougars because they will be coming off a bye, while the Huskies are coming off a physical 33-30 home win over Utah last week that probably took a lot out of them.  They easily should have lost that game, and that effort showed that they weren't all that motivated after losing to Stanford the previous week to essentially eliminate them from Pac-12 and national title contention.

Senior Luke Falk would love nothing more than to beat Washington in his final regular season game.  He has the Pac-12 records for career passing yardage (14,117) and passing touchdowns (118).  The Cougars have an elite offense, but what is underrated about this team is a defense that ranks 11th nationally by giving up just 303.8 yards per game.  The Cougars are 2nd in the country in tackles for losses (94).

Washington State is 16-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Washington State is 9-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Falk will be searching for his first career victory over the Huskies in his career, and I think he likely gets it Saturday given the great spot with the Cougars off a bye and the more motivated team.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Minnesota Top 25 No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5

Richard Pitino has his best team yet in his sixth season at Minnesota.  The Gophers returned all five starters from a young squad last year, and their chemistry has been sensational to start the season.

Indeed, the Gophers are 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.  They have won all six games by 12 points or more, including an impressive 86-74 road win at Providence as 2.5-point dogs, and a 69-51 win over UMass as 14.5-point favorites to kick off this tournament yesterday.

Alabama has some talent with four returning starters.  But they are without one of those starters in Braxton Key (12.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) due to a knee injury.  Key led the team in scoring and minutes played last season.

The Crimson Tide are also unbeaten at 5-0, but their undefeated start has been far less impressive than that of Minnesota.  They only beat Texas-Arlington 77-76 as 11-point home favorites.

Alabama is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 off five or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 17-8 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the past three seasons.  The Gophers are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last three years.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +12

Duke opened 4-0 before losing six straight games.  But the Blue Devils showed a lot of heart last week in beating Georgia Tech 43-20.  It was their most impressive performance of the season.  They outgained a very good Yellow Jackets team by 141 yards, so the final score wasn't fluky at all.

Now the Blue Devils need just one more win to get bowl eligible, and they'd love to do it against their rivals Saturday.  I think Duke will be the more motivated team here because of this fact.  Wake Forest is already bowl eligible at 7-4 and has less to play for.

Plus, Wake Forest is coming off a huge 30-24 win over NC State at home.  That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for them as it is.  And that was a huge misleading final as the Demon Deacons were actually outgained by 168 yards by the Wolfpack.  They have actually been outgained in five of their last eight games, and I just don't think they are as good as their 7-4 record would indicate.  They should not be double-digit favorites against Duke.

I like this matchup for the Blue Devils as well.  They got their ground game going against Georgia Tech last week, rushing for a whopping 319 yards.  Wake Forest ranks 104th in the country against the run, giving up 200 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  

This Wake Forest defense is giving up 444 yards per game on the season, while Duke is giving up just 20.5 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 26 points and 370 yards per game, holding them to 5.5 points and 35 yards per game less than their season averages.  It's clear that the Blue Devils have by far the superior defense in this matchup.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this head-to-head series.  In fact, the road team has actually won five of the last six meetings.  The Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 visits to Wake Forest, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Give me the Blue Devils as double-digit underdogs here in a game they could easily win outright.  Take Duke Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are currently undervalued after losing four of their last six.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Nebraska after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

The Boilermakers were sitting at 4-6 last week, and Jeff Brohm called out his team, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  And boy did his team respond.  Purdue went on the road and beat Iowa 24-15 as 6-point underdogs.  I was on them last week and was very impressed with that effort as they outgained the Hawkeyes by 36 yards and limited them to just 258 total yards.

Purdue is better than its 5-6 record would indicate.  The Boilermakers have outgained seven of their 11 opponents this season with the only exceptions being Louisville, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, which was coming off its bye and trying to save its season.  The Boilermakers are outgaining teams by 26 yards per game on the season.

Brohm has this offense playing at a high level, but it's the work the Boilermakers have done on defense that has led to their turnaround this season.  They are only giving up 18.9 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 29 points per game and 5.8 per play.  They are holding opponents to 10.1 points per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages, which is the sign of an elite defense.

The Indiana Hoosiers are also 5-6, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their back-to-back wins over Illinois and Rutgers.  The Hoosiers don't have any quality wins outside of their road win at Virginia.  The other four wins came at home over Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern and Rutgers, and also that road win at Illinois.  They haven't beaten a team of Purdue's caliber yet.  Indiana has benefited from playing an easier schedule than Purdue.

Plays on home favorites (PURDUE) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992.

Indiana is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 off a home win by 17 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 7-35 ATS in thier last 42 after outgaining their previous opponents by 125 or more yards.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in Big Ten games this season.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings.  The Boilermakers want to avenge four straight losses to Indiana, including their 24-26 loss as 21.5-point road dogs last year.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season Wednesday, a 108-91 domination of the Golden State Warriors in a game that they were determined to prove they could contend in the West.  Mission accomplished.  Now they won't have nearly the same fight against the Detroit Pistons tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pistons will have the fight as they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  They have had three days off in between games to get ready for the Thunder having last played on November 20th.  That will be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.

I really like this Pistons team and feel they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  That has proven to be the case as they are 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS, yet nobody is talking about them.  They are still trying to earn their respect, and a win over the Thunder today would go a long ways.  This team has impressive road wins over Golden State and Minnesota already this season.  Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* VA Tech/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Virginia +7.5

The Virginia Cavaliers will be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak to Virginia Tech in this head-to-head rivalry.  This is one of the best opportunities they have had to end the streak as I believe these two teams are on a similar level talent-wise.

Bronco Mendenhall has done a great job in Year 2 getting the Cavaliers to a bowl at 6-5.  They want more, and they clearly showed that last week when they led No. 2 Miami 28-14 in the second half before giving up 30 straight points to lose 44-28.  They went toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes, actually outgaining them 439 to 358 for the game.  They arguably should have won, and to put up 439 yards on that defense is quite a feat.

Virginia Tech has not looked good at all down the stretch, and it cannot be favored on the road by more than a touchdown here with the way it is playing right now.  The Hokies lost 10-28 at Miami, 22-28 at Georgia Tech, and needed a goal line stand to beat Putt 20-14 last week as 14-point favorites.  That is their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them covering 7.5 against highly motivated Virginia this week.

Pittsburgh threw for 311 yards against this Virginia Tech defense last week.  Kurt Benkert is having a very good year, and he lit up Miami's defense for 384 passing yards last week.  It's clear he will be able to find some success through the air against this overrated Virginia Tech defense that has allowed 399 yards per game in their last three contests.

This Virginia Tech offense is really struggling right now.  The Hokies have been held to less than 400 yards in five straight games against UNC, Duke, Miami, GA Tech and Pitt, not exactly the greatest slate of defenses.  They are averaging just 17.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in their last three.  For whatever reason, they continue try running the football despite the fact that they're not a good running team.  They average 44 rush attempts per game at 3.8 per carry on the season.

Despite losing 13 straight to the Hokies, the Cavaliers have actually come very close to beating them recently.  They were blown out at Virginia Tech last year, but the previous four meetings were decided by a total of 20 points.  Three were decided by 4 points or fewer.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8

The Boston Celtics are in a very tough spot here mentally.  They put a lot into their 16-game winning streak.  But that streak came to an end at Miami on Wednesday.  Now they will suffer a 'hangover' effect from that defeat, and they won't bring the kind of intensity it takes to put Orlando away by 8-plus points tonight.

The Magic will be highly motivated for a victory after losing six straight coming in.  Most of those losses were close, and most came against some of the top teams in the NBA like Golden State, Denver, Portland, and Minnesota, all on the road.  They should be hungry to end this skid against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Magic will also be out for revenge from an 88-104 home loss to the Celtics in their first and only meeting on November 5th less than three weeks ago.  Motivation is huge in the NBA, and there's no question in my mind that the Magic will want this game more than the Celtics do tonight, which is half the battle, matchups aside.

Frank Vogel is 29-12 ATS in November road games in all games he has coached.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -6

Season after season, the Virginia Cavaliers are underrated.  That has been the case thus far in 2017 as well despite the fact that they returned three starters and a ton of talent.  Tony Bennett does a tremendous job with this team as they are consistently a Top 10 defensive team in the land.

Virginia has opened 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS through its first five games.  It went on the road and beat VCU 76-67 as 6.5-point favorites, thumped Monmouth 73-53 as 18.5-point home favorites and crushed Vanderbilt 68-42 as 6-point favorites in its last three games.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, giving up just 51.8 points per game on 34.5% shooting on the season.

Rhode Island is getting too much respect from the books off its 75-74 upset win over Seton Hall yesterday.  The Rams are still without their best player in E.C. Matthews due to injury.  They went 9-of-17 from 3-point range against Seton Hall, which was the difference.  Don't expect them to shoot nearly as well against Bennett's defense today.

The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Virginia Friday.

15* Texas/Duke CBB Friday No-Brainer on Duke -6.5

The Duke Blue Devils are the best team in college basketball, and it's not really even close.  They have opened 6-0 with an 88-81 win over a very good Michigan State team along the way.  I think the fact that they didn't cover as 24.5-point favorites in a 99-81 win over an underrated Portland State team yesterday is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Conversely, Texas is getting too much respect from the books off a 61-48 win as 3-point favorites over Butler yesterday.  But Butler is way down this season and lost its head coach to Ohio State, along with several key players from last year's team.  Texas really doesn't have a good win yet as the other three victories all came at home against Northwestern State, New Hampshire and Lipscomb.  This will be a big step up in class for them.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Duke Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3.5

Mike Riley's tenure at Nebraska is just about to be over.  He has gone just 19-18 in his three seasons, and the Huskers are guaranteed to have a rare losing season at 4-7 on the year.  They have lost three straight and five of their last seven, and their defense has continually been torched.

The Huskers have given up a whopping 47.0 points, 532.7 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play in their last three games.  They are getting worse, not better.  While their 44-56 loss at Penn State last week looks close, they actually trailed that game 56-24 with just over six minutes to play before remarkably scoring three touchdowns in the final six minutes.  I think that 'close' result is giving Nebraska more line respect than they deserve this week.

The Huskers have been outgained in five of their last six games all by 85 yards or more, and four times by 138 yards or more.  Their only win during this stretch came 25-24 at Purdue after their scored in the closing seconds to snatch victory form the jaws of defeat.  But that was a great spot for Nebraska as they were coming off their bye week, while the Boilermakers were coming off a tough 9-17 loss to Wisconsin.

I think Iowa is undervalued right now after losing back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Purdue.  It's clear to me that Iowa had a letdown in those two games after upsetting Ohio State 55-24 at home.  Now I fully expect them to be over that letdown and pissed off, looking to take out their frustration on their biggest rivals in Nebraska.  They'll have no problem kicking them while they're down here.

Iowa has given it to Nebraska the past two years, winning 28-20 in Lincoln as 2.5-point favorites in 2015, and 40-10 at home last year while outgaining the Huskers 408 to 217 for the game.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I think we see Iowa's offense get back to playing like they did against Ohio State against this soft Nebraska defense.  And this Iowa defense is still one of the better units in the country, holding opponents to 20.5 points, 363 yards per game and 5.1 per play on the season.    They are limiting foes to 9.1 points, 31 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages this year.

Nebraska is 0-6 ATS in home games this season.  They lost by 7 to Northwestern as 2-point dogs, by 42 to Ohio State as 24-point dogs, by 21 to Wisconsin as 12.5-point dogs and by 4 to Northern Illinois as 10.5-point favorites.  They needed a comeback to beat lowly Rutgers 27-17 as 11-point favorites, and they nearly lost to Arkansas State 43-36 as 14.5-point favorites.

Iowa is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Riley is 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Nebraska.  The Huskers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Kirk Ferentz is 17-5 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Plays against home underdogs (NEBRASKA) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +4

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are just 5-6 on the year, but all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  They have simply had bad luck in close games.

But the Bulls haven't let it affect them here down the stretch.  They have reeled off two straight victories to get to five wins and within one win of getting bowl eligible.  Now, on Senior Day Friday, the Bulls will be highly motivated for a win to get to a bowl game, and to win it for their seniors.  I love the spot for Buffalo.

Conversely, the spot couldn't be any worse for Ohio.  The Bobcats were upset 34-37 at Akron last week in a game that decided the MAC East champion.  Of course, Akron had to win this week to clinch the East, which is exactly what they did on Tuesday with a 24-14 victory over Kent State.  

Now Akron will be going to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit to face Toledo, while Ohio has nothing to play for at 8-3 and already bowl eligible.  I expect a 'hangover' effect from that loss with Ohio this week.  They won't be able to match Buffalo's intensity in this one.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's no surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  

Jackson really looked like himself two weeks ago, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.  Then last week the Bulls blew out Ball State 40-24 on the road behind 350 passing yards and four touchdowns from Jackson.  They outgained Ball State by 228 yards in that contest.  It's clear this team is much better with Jackson under center.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1992.

Ohio is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 when playing against a marginal losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams that allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Bulls.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

15* Giants/Redskins Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on New York +7.5

The Washington Redskins can't be 7.5-point favorites against the division rival New York Giants.  They have never been good in the favorite role.  They have only been favored in one of their 10 games this season, and they nearly lost outright as 11-point favorites over the 49ers in a 26-24 home victory.  So they'll be favored for just the second time all season here.

The laundry list of injuries for the Redskins is too long to name.  They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, and all three of their running backs are hurt.  Rob Kelley was already out for the season, and then last week Chris Thompson (39 receptions, 510 yards, 294 rushing yards, 6 total TD) suffered a fractured fibula.  Samaje Perine had a big game, but he also suffered a finger injury that has him questionable this week.  They also lost their big free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor to a season-ending injury.  Star TE Jordan Reid has missed the past three games with a hamstring issue.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week, but a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  They Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro, but then leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and rookie first-round pick CB Marshon Lattimore all left with injuries throughout the game.

Cousins took advantage, but their defense couldn't hold the lead as the Saints scored touchdowns on their final two possessions or regulation.  This defense has cluster injuries among the front seven, and it's a defense that has been torched in recent weeks.  The Redskins have allowed 33 or more points in four of their last five games.  They have given up an average of 459.3 yards per game in their last three.

The Giants showed some heart last week in upsetting the Chiefs 12-9 as 10-point home underdogs.  It was a great performance as the Chiefs were in an ideal spot coming off their bye week.  Now this team can relax and start playing more freely after proving their naysayers wrong.  And they will be looking forward to trying to wreck Washington's season for a second consecutive year.

Offensively, the Giants have gotten their ground game going to try and take some pressure off of Eli Manning.  They have done so successfully by rushing for at least 111 yards in five of their last six games overall.  Their defense still has the talent to be a very good unit moving forward after being one of the best units in the NFL last year.  They showed their teeth in limiting the Chiefs to just three field goals and holding them out of the end zone last week.

Last season, in Week 17, the Redskins just needed a win to get in the playoffs.  The Giants had nothing to play for as they were already in the playoffs.  The Giants went into Washington and won 19-10 as 9.5-point underdogs.  That win just continued the dominance of the Giants in this head-to-head series with the Redskins, which is another reason Washington cannot be favored by more than a touchdown here.

Indeed, the Giants are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  The Redskins have won three times in the last 10 meetings, but all three wins came by 6 points or less.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Giants here.  You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time the Redskins beat the Giants by more than a touchdown.  

The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.  Washington is 40-69 ATS in its last 109 games as a home favorite.  New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +15

The Ole Miss Rebels sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from a bowl game.  They would love nothing more than to upset their biggest rivals in Mississippi State here in the Egg Bowl Thursday to clinch that bowl berth.  This team continues to fight despite the tough circumstances they had coming into the season with the offseason distractions.

The Rebels haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 16 points.  They have gone 3-3 during this stretch with wins over Vanderbilt (57-35), Kentucky (37-34) and LA Lafayette (50-22).  Their three losses have come to Texas A&M (24-31), Arkansas (37-38) and LSU (24-40), so they have basically been competitive in every game.  Their only two losses by more than that 16-point margin both came on the road to Alabama and Auburn, the two best teams in the SEC.

There's no question Mississippi State is a very good team at 8-3 this season, but the Bulldogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  This is a team that only beat UMass 34-23 three weeks ago as 31.5-point favorites, and they were in a battle last week with Arkansas as 13.5-point favorites in a 28-21 victory.

I love big underdogs in these rivalry games, and that has particularly been the case in this particular series.  The underdog has won four of the last five meetings outright, including Mississippi State's 55-20 win at Ole Miss last year as 10-point dogs.  You can bet the Rebels want to return the favor here and clinch their bowl by beating their biggest rivals.

Ole Miss boasts and offense that will keep it in this game for four quarters.  The Rebels are averaging 38.2 points per game in their last six contests.  Mississippi State is 3-11 ATS off a road game over the past three seasons.  I anticipate this game being closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seton Hall -4

The Seton Hall Pirates are loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They have four double-digit scorers back in Khadeen Carrington (17.1 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Angel Delgado (15.2 ppg, 13.1 rpg) and Myles owell (10.7 ppg).  They led the Big East in rebounding margin and were 13th nationally.

The Pirates have opened 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  They are taking care of business and should continue doing so here against Rhode Island, which is 2-1 with an 81-88 road loss to Nevada already.

The Rams were 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, but they lost two key pieces from that team in Hassan Martin (13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Kuran Iverson (9.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg).  They were supposed to have three starters back, including leading scorer E.C. Matthews (14.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg), but Matthews is currently sidelined with a knee injury.  That leaves the Rams short-handed and far less talented than Seton Hall.

Plays on a favorite (SETON HALL) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.  Bet Seton Hall Thursday.

15* Arkansas/Oklahoma CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are flying under the radar early in the season.  That's because they went 11-20 last season in what was clearly a rebuilding year.  But now with four starters back and one of the best head coaches in the country in Lon Kruger, the Sooners are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.

The Sooners have opened 2-0 and are hitting on all cylinders offensively, scoring 108 points in each of those two wins.  Now they have had over a week to prepare for Arkansas and this PK 80 Invitational in Oregon having last played on November 15th.  They'll be ready to go.

Conversely, Arkansas is going to take a big step back after a 26-10 season last year.  The Razorbacks lose their two best players in Dusty Hannahs (14.4 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (12.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  They do return two key players in Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon, but they aren't nearly as talented as last year.  They are without one returning starter in Dustin Thomas due to a suspension.  They are also without key bench player Arlando Cook due to suspension, leaving them lacking depth.

Plays on a favorite (OKLAHOMA) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Mike Anderson is 14-27 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Arkansas.  The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Razorbacks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. Big 12 opponents.  Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. SEC foes.  Take Oklahoma Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Los Angeles PK

The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess since losing arguably the three best players on the roster in Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee.  Both Elliott and Lee are expected to be out against the Chargers this week once again, while Smith is a game-time decision.

The offense has really struggled without Elliott and Smith in a 7-27 loss to the Falcons and a 9-36 loss to the Eagles.  They have managed just 8.0 points per game and 229 yards per game in those two contests while committing six turnovers.  The play-action just doesn't work now because opposing defense don't have to respect Elliott and the running game like they normally do.  It's proving that Dak Prescott is no more than an average quarterback.  Not having Smith has allowed the Falcons and Eagles to sack Prescott a combined 12 times.

The Cowboys have been much better defensively when Lee is on the field than when he isn't.  They have given up 32 points per game in the these past two games without him.  Coming into the Philadelphia games, Dallas was giving up a QB rating of 85 to opponents with Lee on the field, and a 108 rating with him off the field.  They were giving up 3.5 yards per carry with him on the field, and 5.5 yards per carry with him off the field.  He is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers.  And now fellow LB Anthony Hitchens, who was taking his place, suffered a groin injury against the Eagles last week and was forced to leave the game.  He is questionable to play this week.

The Chargers are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have turned the corner, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two losses both came on the road to the Patriots and Jaguars in game efforts by a combined 11 points, including an OT loss to Jacksonville in a game they should have won.  The four wins have come by an average of 14.3 points per game.

The Chargers have an underrated defense that is giving up just 19.3 points per game this year.  They will be able to wreak havoc in the Cowboys' backfield all game thanks to the duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram harassing Dak Prescott for four quarters.  And Philip Rivers and the offense really got going last week, racking up 54 points and 429 yards against the Bills.  They should be able to move the ball and score points at will against this Lee-less Cowboys defense.

The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS vs. poor kickoff teams who allow 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a tough spot here.  They used a huge second half to come back and beat the Bulls at home last night 103-94.  They outscored the Bulls 61-38 after intermission to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

I think the wrong team is favored here given the situation.  The Kings have been an underrated home team throughout the years, especially here over the past few weeks.  They are 3-1 in their last four home games, pulling the outright upsets over the Thunder (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, the 76ers (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs and the Blazers (86-82) as 7-point dogs.

The Lakers are 7-21 ATS off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in road games versus poor offensive teams who score 98 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 221

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Warriors and Kevin Durant return to Oklahoma City to take on the new-look Thunder.  This game will be played with a high intensity level on the defensive end, which will make points harder to come by.

The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors are right behind them at 6th, giving up 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-12 (73.9%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 11-5 in Thunder last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -5

Steve Wojciechowski is doing a fine job at Marquette in turning the Golden Eagles into a competitive Big East team year in and year out.  They went 19-13 last season and have one of the best shooting backcourts in the country from the 3-point line, led by Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey.

The Golden Eagles are just 2-2 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule.  Their two losses came to two of the top teams in the country in Purdue and Wichita State, and they were competitive in both games.  Now playing LSU will be a cakewalk compared to what they have played thus far.

LSU may be one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They opened 3-0 against a soft schedule, but then reality set in with a 53-92 loss to Notre Dame last night.  I think they get their doors blown off again as this is a clear rebuilding year for Will Wade and company.  Plus, the Tigers lost one of their best players in Brandon Sampson (10.0 ppg) to injury against Notre Dame and he's doubtful to play tonight.

LSU is 2-11 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the past two seasons.  Marquette is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 November road games.  The Tigers are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Heat UNDER 197.5

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have won 16 straight games is because they have been the best defensive team in the NBA, and by a wide margin.  The Celtics rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.

Now they are up against a Miami Heat team that is also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when Hassan Whiteside is on the floor.  Whiteside missed a handful of games early in the season, which has the Heat's defensive numbers skewed a bit.  They rank 14th in defensive efficiency but are better than that with Whiteside.

The Heat are 26th in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are 20th.  Both teams prefer to play at slower tempos as the Heat are 19th in pace and the Celtics 20th.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Heat last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. 

These teams just played on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics won that game 96-90 for 186 combined points.  I think we see a similar final here as this game stays well UNDER the 197.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Charlotte Hornets are now finally healthy for the first time all season.  It is starting to pay off as they have delivered back-to-back blowout home victories over the Clippers (102-87) and the Timberwolves (118-102).  Now I expect them to get the win and cover at home tonight against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and they haven't had two days off in a row for the entire month of December.  I think this is a tired team right now and they have lost two of their last three coming in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Hornets and Wizards.  Indeed, the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Hornets basically just have to win the game to cover this 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -5.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference this season.  They returned three starters in Jaron Hopkins (13.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.2 spg last year), Jahmel Taylor (10.5 ppg, 45% 3-pointers) and Bryson Williams (7.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg), along with top reserve Deshon Taylor (12.5 ppg).   They added Pacific graduate transfer (13.4 ppg) and will have a potent starting five.

The Bulldogs have opened 2-1, blowing out their first two opponents at home before facing a tough test against SEC foe Arkansas on the road.  They lost that game 75-83, but covered as 13-point underdogs in an impressive showing.  The four returnees are having big seasons already in D. Taylor (17.7 ppg), Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg), J. Taylor (14.3 ppg) and Hopkins (13.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.0 apg).  Bowles (7.3 ppg) is still finding his way with his new team.

Evansville was picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Missouri Valley coming into the season.  It's easy to see why considering they lost three starters, including leading scorer Jaylon Brown (20.9 ppg).  This is a team that went 16-17 last year, including 6-12 in MVC play.  With only two starters back, they will struggle again.

However, I think the Purple Aces are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers and the betting public due to their 4-0 start.  But the four wins all came at home against Arkansas State, NC Central, SE Missouri State and Binghamton.  Those are four awful opponents, and they didn't beat any of them by more than 16 points.  This is a huge step up in class here for the Purple Aces having to face Fresno State.

Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the past two seasons.  Fresno State is 14-3 ATS off an ATS win over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Fresno State is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Fresno State Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -12.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles could have easily packed it in after their 3-7 start.  They were the most hard-luck team in the country in close games through the first 10 games.  Their first six losses all came by 7 points or less, and the only reason they lost to Central Michigan was due to five turnovers in their last loss, a 12-point defeat.

But last week the Eagles showed a lot of heart.  They went on the road and beat Miami Ohio 27-24 as underdogs.  That was a Miami team that needed a win to make a bowl game, and the Eagles looked like they were the team that wanted it more.  They were in control the entire game before Miami scored a TD in the final two minutes and had a failed onside attempt.

This is a veteran EMU team that returned 16 starters and is loaded with seniors.  That is important because this is Senior Night for them and their final game of the season.  I think these seniors, led by QB Brogan Roback, will be motivated to end their playing careers with a victory.  They will put it on Bowling Green at home Tuesday night.

Roback and company should score at will against the worst defense in the MAC.  Bowling Green gives up 38.4 points per game, 517 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  They are giving up 39.9 points, 499 yards per game and 6.7 per play in conference action alone.  They just gave up 66 points to Toledo last week.

Bowling Green is 0-8 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Eagles are 13-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the past two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Eagles.  Take Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

20* Falcons/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

The fight the Atlanta Falcons showed last week against the Cowboys was impressive.  It was the type of season-saving win that I think bodes well for this team moving forward.  They dominated the Cowboys 27-7, limiting them to just 233 total yards and sacking Dak Prescott eight times.  Veteran Adrian Claiborne played like a man possessed with his six sacks.

And while the Falcons are just 5-4 this season, they have been nearly as good as they were last year from a statistical standpoint.  The Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.1) and 7th in defensive yards per play (5.0).  They are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.  It is also the best yards per play differential in the NFL, and it's worth noting the Eagles have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

While the Falcons are basically at full strength outside of Devonta Freeman (questionable), the Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Richard Sherman suffered a torn Achilles against the Cardinals last week and has been lost for the season.  Safety Earl Thomas has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  CB Shaquille Griffin (shoulder) and S Kam Chancellor (undisclosed) both left the Arizona game and are questionable.  So their secondary is extremely vulnerable, and that's bad news for the Seahawks with what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company are capable of doing through the air.

There are offensive line injuries as well with Luke Joeckel still out, and now tackle Duane Brown questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Cardinals.  Brown was traded to Seattle from the Houston Texans, so they cannot afford to lose him.  Not to mention, DE Frank Clark and DE Marcus Smith are both questionable, while DE Cliff Avril is out for the season, so they are short-handed up front on defense.

The Seahawks are just getting respect because they are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  But each win has an asterisk attached to it.  They actually trailed in the second half at home against the Colts before pulling away late.  They were fortunate to beat the Rams 16-10 despite getting outgained by 134 yards.  Their 24-7 win over the Giants is about par for the course for the Giants right now.  They need a score in the final seconds to beat the Texans 41-38 at home.  They lost 14-17 to the Redskins at home as 8-point favorites.  And they were outgained by the Cardinals last week in their 22-16 win over backup QB Drew Stanton and company.

Atlanta lit up Seattle for 28 first downs and 422 total yards in their 36-20 home win last year.  That win avenged their 24-26 loss at Seattle as 6.5-point dogs earlier in the season as the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes, and a pass interference wasn't called on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones that should have been in the closing seconds.  Matt Ryan threw for 323 yards in the playoff game and 310 in the regular season game, so he clearly isn't afraid of this Seattle defense.  The Falcons outgained the Seahawks 784 to 642 in those two meetings combined.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four Monday games.  The Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets had Sunday off and will be rested and ready to go after beating the Los Angeles Clippers 102-87 at home on Saturday.  They had lost six in a row prior to that victory, so they should remain motivated here to get things turned around.

Conversely, the Minnesota Timberwolves played Sunday and lost 97-100 at home to the Detroit Pistons.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I think this tough spot makes them a nice 'play against' team here today.

Plays against any team (Minnesota) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games or more on the season are 70-33 ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -3

The UCLA Bruins are in a world of hurt right now with all of their suspensions.  They have three key players suspended in LiAngelo Ball, Jalen Hill and Cody Riley.  

Being this short-handed nearly cost them as they needed overtime to beat lowly Central Arkansas 106-101 despite being 27.5-point favorites.  They are 0-3 ATS, only beating GA Tech 63-60 as 9.5-point favorites and South Carolina State 96-68 as 36-point favorites.

Creighton has reloaded nicely this season.  Marcus Foster (19.3 PPG) and Khyri Thomas (17.7 ppg) are playing out of their minds thus far in leading the Bluejays to a 3-0 start, which includes an impressive 92-88 road win over ranked Northwestern as 5.5-point dogs.

UCLA IS 1-8 ATS against good offensive teams coring 84 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Creighton Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -5

After a slow start to the season, the Denver Nuggets have played up to their potential of late by going 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 146-114 win over the Pelicans. 

Now, the Nuggets are only being asked to lay 5 points to the struggling Lakers.  And this is a good situation for the Nuggets, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight. 

The Lakers have lost five of their last six coming in, including a 113-122 home loss to the Suns last time out.  They will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  Lonzo Ball has looked like a bust up to this point and has been getting benched in the 4th quarter. 

The Nuggets have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Lakers.  Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Los Angeles.  The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 125 or more points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles have quietly gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season to post the league's best record.  Yet, they don't get the kind of respect that other teams like the Patriots and Steelers do in the AFC.  Nobody just wants to believe in this team, and until they do they're going to continue showing value against the spread.

I think that's the case again this week as the Eagles are only 3-point road favorites over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles are coming off their bye, so they've had two full weeks to rest and get ready for their division rivals.  Playing an NFC East opponent that won the division last year will have kept the Eagles focused all bye week and not relaxing and being content with what they've done up to this point.

Carson Wentz is guiding an elite offense that is putting up 31.4 points, 377 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The defense is improving and getting healthier, giving up just 19.9 points per game, 316 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The secondary has gotten back a couple key pieces here over the past couple weeks and will be one of the most formidable units in the NFL moving forward.

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The Ezekiel Elliott 6-game suspension has been upheld, and he was forced to miss last week's 27-7 loss to the Falcons.  The offense looked lost without him.  The Falcons didn't bite on play action like most teams would when Elliott is in the lineup.  Instead, they sacked Dak Prescott  eight times, including a franchise-record six from Adrian Claiborne.  They held the Cowboys to just 233 total yards.

A big reason Claiborne had such a big game was because he was going up against a backup left tackle in Chaz Green, who was eventually benched.  Green was starting in place of the injured Tyron Smith, who is questionable to return this week, and his value to this team cannot be overstated.  This offense just isn't going to be as effective without Elliott, who has been one of the top two running backs in the league the past two seasons and is worth more to this team than he gets credit for.

Defensively, the Cowboys have all kinds of issues right now.  They seem to go as Sean Lee goes.  When he's in the lineup, they are an average or better defense.  Without him, they are one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  He is nearly as important to their defense as Luke Kuechly is for the Panthers.  And now Lee is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury he suffered against the Falcons.  Not to mention, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Orlando Scandrick, LB Justin Durant and S Jeff Heath are all questionable.

With all of these injuries and suspensions, and with Jerry Jones causing a stir with the NFL, I just don't like the current state of the Cowboys right now.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are getting healthier with Zach Ertz expecting to return this week, and I think they are looking forward to this opportunity to kick the Cowboys while they're down.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State +2

I have been fading the Iowa State Cyclones regularly the early going because they lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer was Donavan Jackson (6.4 ppg). It has paid off so far as the Cyclones are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS.  

I won against them taking Missouri and Appalachian State and am upset I didn’t fade them against Milwaukee and Tulsa.  I won’t make that mistake again today. Now Iowa State plays a Boise State team that is the second-best squad they have faced this year outside Missouri.  

The Broncos returned three starters from last year and are a veteran bunch.  They have opened 4-0 with some quality wins over UTEP and Illinois State in the first two games of this tournament. 

Boise State is 8-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 off an upset win by 10 points or more as a dog.  The wrong team is favored in this game today folks.  Take Boise State Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5

It's pretty simple with the Chargers.  Bet on them when they're an underdog, and bet against them when they're a favorite.  You would have made a lot of money on Chargers games doing just that over the past several season.  The Chargers cannot be laying 4.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.

The Chargers lost a game in true Charger fashion last week, falling 17-20 in overtime on the road as 5-point underdogs.  They had the game all but sealed before fumbling in the final few minutes.  Then Philip Rivers threw one of his patented late-game interceptions in overtime to set the Jaguars up for the game-winning field goal.

I certainly do not like the state of mind of the Chargers right now.  They have come out of their bye week and promptly lost two straight to fall to 3-6 on the season.  That leaves them with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs.  And fans of this team won't be showing up to the game now as the Chargers actually have zero home-field advantage, which has been one of the most underrated advantages we have in fading the Chargers when at home.  Cuz they still get treated like a good home team from oddsmakers when there really is zero advantage from them, and more often than not they're getting booed.

The Bills sit at 5-4 on the season.  They have lost two in a row, but the outlook is still bright as they are currently the 6th seed in the AFC if the season were to end today.  I think head coach Sean McDermott made the right move to give the ball to Nathan Peterman at quarterback this week.  He looked great in the preseason and could prove to be a fifth-round steal.

Peterman replaced Tyrod Taylor with less than five minutes remaining in Sunday's 47-10 loss to the Saints.  Taylor had completed just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards, one INT and a career-low 33.6 passer rating despite the debut of receiver Kelvin Benjamin and the return of TE Charles Clay.  Peterman, making his NFL debut, completed 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown in two offensive possessions.  He led a high-octane offense at Pitt last season.

"I've been impressed with Nate and his maturity as a rookie in a very early point in his career," McDermott said. "He's certainly worked hard. When you look at Nate and what he was able to do through OTAs, through training camp, through preseason and then [Sunday], I thought he did some good things, albeit that was a small sample size in a regular-season game. That said, he has a lot of work do, just like we all do."
McDermott later added of Peterman, "He's ready. I wouldn't make this move if I didn't feel he was ready."

Let's be honest, the offense needs a spark, because the defense cannot continue carrying the load like it has up to this point.  Peterman still has the luxury of a great running game with LeSean McCoy and company.  And I have no doubt he will better utilize his weapons outside in Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and Clay.  This offense has simply underperformed up to this point with Taylor at the helm.

It's worth noting that Philip Rivers has been in concussion protocol this week and his status is up in the air for the Chargers.  Starting tackle Joe Barksdale is out, while starting center Matt Slauson and starting guard Forrest Lamp both have season-ending injuries.  Rivers has been under duress all season, so it's no surprise he took a beating last week against the Jaguars.

Buffalo is 52-28 ATS in its last 80 off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills are a perfect 6-0 ATS off two or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by an average of 9.7 points per game in this spot.  The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight road losses.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

20* Rams/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

What do the Minnesota Vikings have to do to get some respect?  Until they do, I'll continue backing them as I did last week as only 1-point favorites over the Redskins in their 38-30 road win.  Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams this week.  This game could be an NFC Championship preview, and the Vikings want to make sure they get the tiebreaker with a win here if it comes down to it for home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

The Vikings are the real deal.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents this season, so their record has not been fluky at all.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of an elite team.

Defensively, Mike Zimmer has one of the best stop units in the NFL.  The Vikings rank 5th in total defense (294.6 yards/game) and 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.7) allowed, which is the most important stat.  And the Rams haven't seen a defense this good all season.  The only other that would compare would be Seattle, and they lost at home to the Seahawks 10-16.  They also played the Jaguars and managed just 249 total yards against them.

The one aspect of the Vikings that gets overlook is just how good the offense is.  They rank 9th in the league in total offense (363.8 yards/game) and 8th in offensive yards per play (5.6).  Case Keenum has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.  It was the right move for Zimmer to announce he is sticking with Keenum because he has earned it, instead of throwing Teddy Bridgewater in there.

I have been a big Rams' backer this season and still really like this team, but I think the betting public has not caught on to how good they are.  The value has been sapped from the Rams this week because they should be catching more than a field goal here on the road, instead they are only 2.5-point dogs.  That places the value squarely with the home favorite Vikings.

The Rams are 7-2 but they are feasting on some bad teams.  Their seven wins have come against the Colts, 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants and Texans.  Five of those teams are terrible, while the wins over the Cowboys and Jaguars come with asterisks.  The Rams were coming off a Thursday game while the Cowboys were coming off a Monday game, so they had a huge advantage in rest and preparation.  And they were outgained by 140 yards by the Jagauars and were aided by two non-offensive touchdowns.

Minnesota has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 28-58-1 ATS in their last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Vikings are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Kings/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

The Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings are playing a home-and-home situation here.  They just played last night with the Kings upsetting the Blazers 86-82 as 7-point home dogs. 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations because familiarity favors defense.  And after they combined for just 168 points last night, I don’t know how the oddsmakers can justify setting this total at 199 a night later.  I think there’s all kinds of value with the UNDER here, especially with how poor the Kings have been offensively this season and how good the Blazers have been defensively. 

Note: I locked this line in at 199 as soon as I could, and it has dropped quite a bit since the opener.  I would still recommend a bet on the UNDER all the way down to 193.   Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.