|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-10-12||Georgia -15.5 v. Auburn||38-0||Win||100||71 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Auburn ESPN 2 Line Mistake on Georgia -15.5
A win guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC title game for a second straight season. That would also mean that its national title hopes are still alive considering the winner of the SEC Championship game has made it to the BCS Championship in six straight seasons. They certainly won
|11-10-12||Penn State +7.5 v. Nebraska||23-32||Loss||-113||67 h 2 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Nebraska ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Penn State +7.5
The postseason ban hasn
|11-10-12||Navy v. Troy||31-41||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy PK
Navy is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It has won five straight games coming in with road victories over Air Force, Central Michigan and East Carolina, along with home wins over Indiana and Navy.
Its recent success is directly related to a change at the quarterback position. Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game and led the Midshipmen to a comeback victory in the second half. He hasn't missed a beat since.
Reynolds has rushed for 405 yards and six touchdowns. However, it's his throwing ability that has made this offense so much more explosive. Reynolds is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 560 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He forces opposing defenses to respect the pass, which makes this triple-option attack so much scarier.
Troy had a chance to pull off a huge upset at Tennessee last week. It blew the game down the stretch, allowing the Vols to score two touchdowns over the final three minutes to escape with a 55-48 victory. After such a crushing defeat, it will be hard for the Trojans to bounce back mentally and get ready for this powerful triple-option attack that's coming their way.
Navy crushed Try 42-14 at home in last season's meeting. It rushed for 390 yards while compiling 517 total yards in the win. It also held the Trojans to just 330 total yards while forcing two turnovers defensively. I expect a similar blowout this Saturday as the Midshipmen run wild on the Trojans once again.
The Midshipmen are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Navy is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games overall. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-10-12||Arizona State +9.5 v. USC||17-38||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona State +9.5
The USC Trojans are in a huge letdown spot here. They'd have their hands full with Arizona State regardless, but given the situation I can see them losing this one outright. The Sun Devils are better than they get credit for and will give the Trojans a run for their money here.
USC's biggest game of the year took place last Saturday in a 51-62 home loss to the Oregon Ducks. It had a chance to salvage its season with a win in that game, but that hope is long gone now. USC came into the season with national title hopes, and now it has little to play for the rest of the way having already suffered three losses.
Arizona State is highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses to three really good teams in Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. Its last two losses have come in heartbreaking fashion by a combined 12 points to the Bruins and Beavers. This team will respond better than USC will this week given the situation.
The Sun Devils have played some of their best football on the road this season. They are 2-1 away from home with road wins over California and Colorado by a combined 44 points. Their lone loss on the road came at Missouri by a final of 20-24.
Arizona State didn't have all that great of a team last season, yet it beat USC 43-22 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. It also took the Trojans down to the wire on the road in 2010, losing by a final of 33-34 as a 6-point underdog.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Sun Devils are a very good team. They rank 31st in the country in total offense (457.8 yards/game) and 24th in total defense (333.3 yards/game). As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 124.5 yards/game.
USC is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Arizona State Saturday.
|11-10-12||Evansville v. Notre Dame -14||49-58||Loss||-110||3 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -14
Mike Brey is counting on Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to lead a squad that returns all five starters and added 6-10 Michigan State transfer Garrick Sherman and freshmen forwards Cameron Biedscheid and Zach Auguste. The other returning starters are guards Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, who both averaged more than 12 points a game last season, sixth-year player Scott Martin and Pat Connaughton.
This is a team that should have no problem rolling by 15-plus against the overmatched Evansville Purple Aces. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|11-10-12||Wisconsin v. Indiana +7||Top||62-14||Loss||-105||64 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +7
The Indiana Hoosiers have been under the radar all season. What's amazing is that this basketball school is actually starting to become a legitimate football program, but public bettors fail to realize it yet. As a result, they are showing great value as a touchdown underdog at home to Wisconsin once again Saturday.
Indiana is just 4-5 this season, but it could easily be 8-1. It has four losses by 4 points or less. They are 39-41 to Ball State, 27-32 to Michigan State, 49-52 to Ohio State and 30-31 to Navy.
This team has bounced back nicely from five straight losses with two solid wins over Illinois and Iowa. Now, Indiana controls its destiny in representing the Leaders division in the Big Ten title game. Both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible, so the Hoosiers are just one game behind Wisconsin. A win Saturday would move them into first place due to the tiebreaker.
Wisconsin is certainly down this season, yet it isn't getting treated like it. It has fortunate close wins over North Iowa, Utah State and UTEP. Its only Big Ten wins have come against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota, three teams with a combined 1-14 record in Big Ten play. The Badgers are overrated and will meet their match this weekend.
The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|11-09-12||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -4.5||84-104||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4.5
The Denver Nuggets are under the radar in the early going due to their 0-3 start against a brutal schedule. I believe they should be a heavier favorite tonight against the Utah Jazz at home. This Nuggets team is one of the best in the league in my opinion and as the season progresses, you will see that.
Denver opened with three straight tough road games at the 76ers, Magic and Heat for their 0-3 start. They picked up their first win of the year with a 109-97 home victory over Detroit, then went on the road to beat Houston 93-87. You would be hard-pressed to find another team with a tougher schedule thus far.
Utah is in a big letdown spot following its 95-86 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers. This has been a great home team throughout the years, and they have opened 2-0 at home this season. However, the Jazz are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this year, falling to the Hornets, Spurs and Grizzlies.
The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Utah is 19-39 ATS in its last 58 games following a ATS win. The favorite is 31-15-3 ATS in the last 49 meetings. The Jazz are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|11-09-12||Maryland Terrapins +11.5 v. Kentucky||69-72||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Kentucky CBB Season Opener on Maryland +11.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Several key players return for Maryland. They are 7-foot-1 sophomore center Alex Len, 6-8 senior forward James Padgett and guards Pe'Shon Howard and Nick Faust. With Len, Padgett, and highly touted freshmen Shaquille Cleare (6-9, 262 pounds) and Charles Mitchell (6-8, 260) rotating in the frontcourt, the Terrapins expect to control the boards against most teams. Both Cleare and Mitchell were Top 100 recruits.
I just like the veteran experience on this team up against the inexperienced, over-hyped Wildcats in the first game of the season. This one should go right down to the wire as the Terrapins easily stay within double-digits. Roll with Maryland Friday.
|11-09-12||Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Pitt/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Connecticut +3.5
The Panthers could be in a huge letdown spot here. They have to be deflated after their triple overtime loss to the Fighting Irish last Saturday, which was their chance to salvage a poor season. I foresee them showing up mentally to play this game Friday after such a tough defeat.
Connecticut has been better than its 3-6 record would indicate. It is actually outgaining opponents by 28 yards per game this season, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 on the year. It remains competitive thanks to a stop unit gives up just 18.6 points per game, and one that ranks 9th in the country in total defense at 290.2 yards per game allowed.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 331 total yards per game. It will have a hard time moving the football on this stingy Huskies
|11-08-12||Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5||27-10||Loss||-100||25 h 27 m||Show|
15* Colts/Jaguars NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3.5
The betting public is all over the Colts this week. Not too many public bettors are going to want to put their money down on Jacksonville with how poorly they
|11-08-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls||97-91||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder want to make up for their meltdown last Thursday on TNT. They were leading the Spurs by 3 points in the final minute, but managed to squander that lead and eventually lost 84-86 on the road.
The Thunder will be looking to make a statement a week later against a much weaker Chicago team tonight on TNT. The Bulls may be 3-1, but they've played about as easy of a schedule as you will find with wins against the Kings, Cavs and Magic. They lost to the Hornets at home, too.
Oklahoma City is coming off its best game of the season in a 108-88 home victory over the Toronto Raptors. This team is off to just a 2-2 start this season, so I look for it to build off of that win and to stay highly motivated tonight to get back above .500 on the season.
The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. OKC is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 Thursday games. The Thunder are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents. OKC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Chicago. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|11-08-12||Florida State v. Virginia Tech +14.5||Top||28-22||Win||100||45 h 2 m||Show|
25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +14.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are way undervalued heading into this contest with the Florida State Seminoles. Lane Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play in the country, and FSU isn't just going to walk into it and dominate the Hokies in this one.
This is Virginia Tech's national championship after a 4-5 start to the season. This team has had several bad breaks throughout the year, and I have no doubt that it is a much better squad than its record would indicate. Now is their chance to prove it on National TV against a Top 10 opponent.
Virginia Tech is a perfect 4-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 35.0 to 11.0, or by an average of 24.0 points per game. Florida State is just 2-1 on the road, outscoring opponents 26.3 to 18.0, or by an average of 8.3 points per game. Both of its road wins came by 13 points to South Florida and Miami, and it lost to NC State. I believe Virginia Tech is a stronger team than all three of those squads.
The home team has dominated this series through the years. The host has won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings between the Seminoles and Hokies. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
The Hokies are 15-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. The Seminoles are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. FSU is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
The Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in November. Virginia Tech is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Hokies are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.
|11-08-12||Louisiana Monroe +7 v. Arkansas State||23-45||Loss||-115||74 h 58 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +7
The Warhawks had won five straight before falling at home to Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday. That loss is just an aberration, and they are undervalued coming in because of it. They are still tied atop the Sun Belt standings and there
|11-07-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 196.5||86-95||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 196.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. Both teams featured great post play as the Lakers feature Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, while the Jazz feature Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. Look for both teams to slow down the pace tonight and run their offense through their big men.
The Lakers have clearly been out of sync offensively in the early going due to the moves they made this offseason. Now, without Steve Nash running the show due to injury, they are going to be even worse off offensively, but better defensively. They allowed just 79 points to the Pistons last time out.
This has been a low-scoring series between the Lakers and Jazz. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings as they have combined to score 183 or fewer points in five of those six contests. There's no question the oddsmakers have missed their mark given these recent head-to-head results.
The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Lakers last 61 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 18-7 in Jazz last 25 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Utah. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-07-12||Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. Houston Rockets||93-87||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +2.5
The Denver Nuggets are undervalued due to their 1-3 start. This is still one of the best teams in the league in my opinion, and they should not be an underdog to the overvalued Houston Rockets in this one.
Houston is getting too much respect for its 2-1 start that featured two wins against Detroit and Atlanta. It came back down to reality with an 85-95 home loss to Portland last time out. It has certainly played the easier schedule to this point.
Denver lost three road games against the 76ers, Magic and Heat to open the season before a 109-97 home victory over the Pistons last night. This team is going to be playing with a sense of urgency for a few weeks after their 0-3 start, which should make them a moneymaker in the short-term.
The Nuggets are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 road games. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Denver three of four against Houston last season, including both meetings in Houston. Take the Nuggets Wednesday.
|11-07-12||Bowling Green v. Ohio -2.5||Top||26-14||Loss||-110||22 h 33 m||Show|
20* Bowling Green/Ohio MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -2.5
If Ohio wants a shot to redeem itself from last year's loss in the MAC title game, this is a must-win for the Bobcats. They are tied with Bowling Green for second place in the East Division at 4-1 and will eventually get a shot against Kent State (5-0) in the season finale.
I still believe the Bobcats are the best team in this division. They were the favorite to win the MAC coming into 2012, and one 3-point loss at Miami (Ohio) does not change my opinion on them. This is still an 8-1 team that is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points/game.
Ohio is 5-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 42.4 to 21.4 on the year. It has the better offense in this one which will be the difference in the game. Ohio ranks 28th in the country in total offense (462.2 yards/game), while Bowling Green ranks just 77th in total offense (383.4 yards/game).
Sure, the Falcons have a solid defense this season, but the Bobcats' stop unit isn't too shabby either. Bowling Green is just 2-3 on the road this season as all three of its losses have come away from home. It is scoring a mere 15.4 points/game on the road this year.
Bowling Green is getting way too much respect right now for its five-game winning streak coming in. That winning streak is an absolute joke as they five teams the Falcons have played were Rhode Island, Akron, Miami (Ohio), UMass and Eastern Michigan.
Ohio is 10-1 ATS in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Ohio Wednesday.
|11-06-12||Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets -10.5||97-109||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Denver Nuggets -10.5
The Denver Nuggets are off to an 0-3 start this season thanks to a brutal schedule with three straight road games. They did not play well in their first two contests in losses at Philly and Orlando, but they did give the defending champion Miami Heat a run for their money in a 116-119 road loss.
I believe the Nuggets are still one of the best teams in the league despite their 0-3 start. In their home opener Tuesday, this team is going to be highly motivated to pick up its first win of the season against the Detroit Pistons. This has the makings of one of the biggest blowouts of the season.
The Detroit Pistons are clearly one of the worst teams in the league. They have hardly been competitive this season in losses to the Rockets, Suns and Lakers. Los Angeles was able to get its first win against the Pistons with a 108-79 home victory on Sunday, and I look for a similar blowout here tonight.
The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central opponents. Denver is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|11-06-12||Ball State +7 v. Toledo||Top||34-27||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ball State/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ball State +7
The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule than the Toledo Rockets and they
|11-05-12||Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2||92-94||Push||0||10 h 15 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2
The Sacramento Kings are very hungry for their first win of the season. They have been dealt a brutal schedule in the early going with three road games at Chicago, Minnesota and Indiana. They lost in double overtime to the Pacers Saturday to fall to 0-3 on the season.
Golden State is getting too much respect for its 2-1 start. It beat Phoenix 87-85 on the road, and the Suns are clearly in rebuilding mode. It also beat the Clippers on the road 114-110, but it caught them in a huge letdown spot after beating the Lakers the previous night.
Sacramento is simply going to want this game more tonight as it plays in front of its home fans for the first time this season. The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Monday games. Roll with the Kings Monday.
|11-05-12||Philadelphia Eagles v. New Orleans Saints OVER 52||Top||13-28||Loss||-110||127 h 51 m||Show|
25* Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Saints OVER 52
This game has shootout written all over it. We have two of the most explosive offenses in the league going at it inside at dome down in New Orleans. I expect a lot of touchdowns and few defensive stops in this one.
New Orleans is scoring 27.1 points/game overall and 29.0 points/game at home. It ranks 5th in the league in total offense (388.6 yards/game), including 1st in passing offense (316.0 yards/game). Brees will be able to pick apart a Philly defense that underwent a coordinator change last week, and it didn't help. The Eagles allowed 30 points to the Falcons in a 30-17 home loss.
Philly ranks as solid 13th in the league in total offense (363.6 yards/game). It is in line for its best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up 30.9 points/game this season while ranking 32nd in total defense (475.4 yards/game).
Each of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 51 or more combined points. They combined for 70 points in a 48-22 Saints' victory in their most recent meeting in 2009. They always tend to play in high-scoring games when they get together, and they should easily eclipse this 52-point total early into the 4th quarter.
The OVER is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 10-1 in Saints last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 27-1 (96%) system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-05-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Brooklyn Nets -7.5||107-96||Loss||-105||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -7.5
The Brooklyn Nets are amped up to ball. They are the only NBA team that has been able to play just one game thus far this season due to the New York game getting postponed. These players have a ton of energy they're just waiting to let out on the floor tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I was impressed with Brooklyn in its lone contest, a 107-100 home victory over Toronto. Five different players scored in double figures, led by Brook Lopez and his 27 points. This is a very deep team and it will be one of the top squads in the Eastern Conference come season's send.
Minnesota has not impressed me in the early going one bit. Its lone win came at home against the Kings, and it was demolished at Toronto 86-105 Sunday. It turned the ball over 24 times against the Raptors, and this team simply isn't very talented this season. The Wolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so they won't be able to match the energy level the Nets bring to the court.
The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Without Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the league in the early going talent-wise. Take the Nets Monday.
|11-04-12||Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||13-19||Loss||-115||99 h 41 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +4.5
Dallas is a much better team than its 3-4 record would indicate. One look at the numbers and you can tell that, but the fact of the matter is that this team keeps beating itself. If the Cowboys ever quit beating themselves, they are going to be a very scary team in the second half. They committed six turnovers against the Giants last week and still had a chance to win at the end.
The Cowboys rank 7th in the league in total offense at 383.3 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 292.4 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by roughly 91 yards per game on the season, which is a number more indicative of a team that is 5-2 or better rather than one that is 3-4.
To compare, the Falcons are only outgaining opponents by a mere 12.4 yards per game this season. That number is more indicative of a team that is 4-3 rather than one that is 7-0. You could certainly make the argument that the Cowboys are the better team with those numbers, and there
|11-04-12||Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. NY Giants||Top||24-20||Win||100||95 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
While the Steelers do have three losses on the season, they really gave those games away. They held fourth quarter leads against the Broncos, Titans and Raiders and managed to let them slip away. Pittsburgh is really looking for a statement win, and it will be highly motivated when it goes into New York Sunday against the defending champs.
Pittsburgh may be a bit banged up, but it is playing its best football of the season right now. After a 24-17 road win at Cincinnati in Week 7, the Steelers came back with a 27-12 home victory over the Washington Redskins in arguably their most complete game of the season last Sunday. They limited Robert Griffin III and Washington
|11-04-12||Minnesota Vikings +5 v. Seattle Seahawks||20-30||Loss||-106||90 h 39 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +5
The Vikings are getting some extra rest coming into this one, and they certainly need it to regroup and refocus after a 17-36 home loss to the Bucs last Thursday. They will be on three extra days of rest, which will make their trip out West a lot less of a distraction than it normally would be. It has given Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Antoine Winfield and Mistral Raymond more time to recover from minor injuries.
Peterson has amazingly returned from a knee injury to lead the league in rushing this season with 775 yards and four touchdowns. Harvin is one of the most electrifying players in the league with what he does on offense and special teams. He ranks 5th in the league in receiving with 60 grabs for 667 yards and three touchdowns. With these two playmakers on Minnesota
|11-04-12||Arizona Cardinals +11 v. Green Bay Packers||17-31||Loss||-107||87 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +11
The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league. Their stop unit has given up 24 or less points in 17 straight games dating back to last season. They are giving up just 17.7 points per game this season. They rank 6th in the league in total defense, allowing a mere 312.9 yards per game. This stop unit is capable of keeping them in every ball game.
|11-04-12||Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans -10||9-21||Win||100||87 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -10
Houston has arguably been the best team in the league this season. The Texans own the second-best record in the NFL and have been absolutely rolling teams along the way. They already have four wins by 20 points or more, including a 43-13 home victory over Baltimore last time out in Week 8. They are outscoring opponents 30.9 to 18.3, or by an average of 12.6 points per game.
The Texans are dominant on both sides of the ball as they have little to no weaknesses. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (371.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 140.9 yards on the ground and 230.6 through the air. They are 3rd in the league in total defense at 283.0 yards per game allowed, proving that their No. 2 finish last season was no fluke.
|11-03-12||Alabama v. LSU +10||21-17||Win||100||69 h 28 m||Show|
15* Alabama/LSU SEC Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU +10
It's time to fade the No. 1 team in the country as the Alabama Crimson Tide are simply overvalued heading into this showdown with No. 5 LSU. The Tigers want payback from a loss in the national title game, and they're not about to let the Crimson Tide come into their building and embarrass them.
"There are a lot of scars from that national championship game," LSU defensive tackle Bennie Logan said. "You will see it on the field. The loss in the national championship game had a big impact on us. Going into last season, we had set goals like winning the national championship. Bama took that from us. They took that national championship ring. We want to show the world that we have bounced back from that loss."
LSU has won a school-record 22 straight home games, yet it is a big home underdog Saturday. Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and it will be a rowdy atmosphere for this one, you can bank on that.
The Tigers come in with an extra week of rest after having last week off, so the schedule could not have set up any better for them. That extra week of rest and preparation is huge when trying to get ready for a team like Alabama. LSU will be the more ready team this Saturday.
These are two evenly-matched teams for the most part. Both have dominant defense and great running games. Sure, Alabama may have an edge at quarterback, but I think that's negated with LSU's home-field advantage. This one will likely come right down to the final possession folks, just as it did in last year's 9-6 LSU road victory in overtime in the regular season.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. LSU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|11-03-12||Denver Nuggets +8 v. Miami Heat||116-119||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8
Denver has clearly underachieved with an 0-2 start to the season. It will be highly motivated for a victory when it travels to Miami tonight. Both teams are on a second of a back-to-back, but the Nuggets are built better for it.
The Nuggets go 10 deep and they are one of the most talented teams in the league. I have no doubt this will be one of the top teams in the West by season's end, so they are certainly undervalued right now after an 0-2 start. I'm not reading into it too much, and you shouldn't either.
The Nuggets are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games. Denver is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|11-03-12||Sacramento Kings +8 v. Indiana Pacers||98-106||Push||0||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +8
The Sacramento Kings have won their last two meetings with the Pacers outright as 5.5 and 6.5 points underdogs. Indiana is still without Danny Granger, and it will not play up to its potential until he returns.
The Pacers needed to come from behind against the Raptors to win 90-88 in their opener, and then they lost to the Bobcats 89-90 last night. Clearly, losing to Charlotte shows that this team is in a world of hurt.
Sacramento will be extra motivated to pick up its first win of the season after losses at Chicago and at Minnesota in its first two contests. This is a deep team that has stockpiled talent over the last few years, and it will handle this second of a back-to-back much better than the short-handed Pacers.
The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Kings Saturday.
|11-03-12||Clemson -12.5 v. Duke||56-20||Win||100||68 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -12.5
This is an absolute mismatch in ACC play Saturday and the final score will show that. Clemson has way too much talent and athleticism across the board for Duke to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
At 7-1 this season, the Tigers still have a lot to play for, and they're still very much alive in the ACC title race in their bid for back-to-back conference championships. This team has learned a lot from its meltdown at the end of last season as it is a year older and a lot more mature.
"I just think the experience they've had is going to pay off for them," head coach Dabo Swinney said. "That's usually the case." Quarterback Tajh Boyd said he's a much more mature player this season and doesn't spend much time thinking about what went wrong for him last fall.
"It's a growth in the leadership role and having these guys look up to me in any situation whether we're down or up," he said. "So my job is to stay calm, stay poised and let the game come to me." Boyd leads the league with more than 326 yards of total offense per game. He's also tops in the ACC with 20 TD passes against six interceptions.
Boyd threw for a school-record 428 yards in last Thursday's 42-13 win at Wake Forest. Clemson has now had a couple extra days of rest heading into this one. Its only loss came on the road 37-49 at Florida State, otherwise the Tigers have been rolling teams. Six of their seven wins have come by double-digits.
Duke has already become bowl eligible with its 6th win. This team had a very easy schedule in the early going, and it took advantage by opening 6-2. As a result, the Blue Devils are overvalued now heading into tough stretch run, which started with last week's 7-48 loss at Florida State.
Duke couldn't hang with the Seminoles, which is a team very similar to Clemson in terms of talent and athleticism. The Blue Devils could be without starting QB Sean Renfree, who suffered a head injury against FSU. I still love the Tigers if he plays, but if he doesn't it's just an added bonus.
The Tigers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with Duke. These games haven't even been close as Clemson has won by a combined score of 127-37. They have won all three games by 24 or more points.
Clemson is 9-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Clemson is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 conference games. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. Roll with Clemson Saturday.
|11-03-12||Pittsburgh +17 v. Notre Dame||26-29||Win||100||65 h 60 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +17
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season. They beat Oklahoma on the road last Saturday as ESPN's College Game Day made the trip to see it live. Off such an emotional win with so much national exposure, it's only human nature for the Fighting Irish to have a letdown this week against Pittsburgh.
There's no way the Irish will be able to match the intensity they played with against Oklahoma off such a huge win. Sure, they may win this game against the Panthers, but it won't be my more than 17 points. Pitt has the talent to hang around and make this a game.
While the Panthers are just 4-4 this season, I have no doubt that they are better than their record. They rank 43rd in the country in total offense (431.9 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (339.9 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 92 yards/game. That's the sign of a very good football team, and one that is better than .500.
Notre Dame has not been blowing teams out at home. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 at home, but they have won those four games by a combined 20 points, or by an average of 5.0 points/game. They don't have one home win by more than 7 points all season, and both Purdue and BYU were able to stay within a field goal.
Pitt comes in with a lot of confidence as it is playing its best football of the season. It has beaten Buffalo and Temple the past two weeks by a combined score of 67-23. The Panthers will certainly be laying it all on the line to try and pick up a signature win by pulling off the upset Saturday.
This has been a very tight series in recent years as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. In fact, seven of the last eight meetings were decided by 8 points or fewer. I look for this one to come right down to the wire as well. The underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-03-12||Ole Miss +14.5 v. Georgia||10-37||Loss||-110||65 h 59 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi +14.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are in a huge letdown spot here against underrated Ole Miss. Georgia is coming off its biggest win of the season with a 17-9 victory over SEC East rival Florida. It forced six turnovers in the win.
While the Bulldogs are now in control of their own destiny in the SEC East, there's no way they'll be able to match the intensity they played with in a statement win over the Gators. That makes them ripe for the picking against an Ole Miss team that doesn't get the respect it deserves.
The Rebels have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have beaten both Auburn and Arkansas, while losing by just 3 points to Texas A&M and by 19 at Alabama. That 19-point road loss to the Crimson Tide was the closest any team has come to beating the No. 1 team in the country.
Hugh Freeze is the real deal as a head coach after guiding Arkansas State to a perfect 8-0 record in conference play and a Sun Belt championship. He has already guided the Rebels to a 5-3 start and one win away from bowl contention after Houston Nutt left the program in a mess.
Freeze has a stud quarterback in Bo Wallace who is simply carrying this team on his shoulders. Wallace is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,649 yards with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also rushing for 263 yards and five scores. Jeff Scott is a beast at tailback, rushing for 612 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.4/carry.
The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Bulldogs are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-03-12||Washington State +12 v. Utah||6-49||Loss||-110||64 h 28 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +12
The Utah Utes are way overvalued heading into this showdown Saturday. They are getting way too much respect for their 49-27 home win over Cal last week that was gift-wrapped by the Golden Bears. Cal gave up two 100-yard kickoff return touchdowns and a fumble return for a score, which is how it lost by 22 despite outgaining the Utes 441-344 for the game.
Washington State may be just 2-6, but this team is much better than its record would indicate. It just lost at Stanford 17-24 last Saturday as a 25-point underdog. It recently got back its secret weapon in starting quarterback Jeff Tuel from injury.
The Cougars actually outgained the Cardinal 385-256 last Saturday and really should have won the game. Stanford had a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that proved to be the difference. Tuel completed 43 of 60 passes for 401 yards and two touchdowns against a very good Stanford defense.
Tuel will be the key to the Cougars likely pulling off this upset Saturday. Utah has given up some big passing numbers this season. It gave up 372 against Arizona State, 303 against USC and 288 against California. Teams struggle to run the football on the Utes, but the Cougars don't run it one bit. They will have a lot of success through the air Saturday.
Washington State lost 27-30 at home to Utah last season. It simply gave that game away because despite throwing for 337 yards, the Cougars committed five turnovers and had a -3 turnover differential for the game, which proved to be the difference. The Cougars want revenge in this one and will take better care of the football.
The Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 0-4 ATS int is last 4 games following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Utes are officially on upset alert heading into this one folks. Take Washington State Saturday.
|11-03-12||Oklahoma -11 v. Iowa State||Top||35-20||Win||100||69 h 49 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -11
The Oklahoma Sooners should roll right over the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday. This line has been set too low due to Oklahoma's loss to Notre Dame last week. Well, both of the Sooners' losses this season have come against two unbeaten teams in Notre Dame and Kansas State that don't get the credit they deserve.
The Sooners have owned this series with the Cyclones, and that won't change Saturday. Oklahoma has won 13 straight meetings with Iowa State by an average score of 32-8. It has also won 20 straight road meetings with the Cyclones with its last loss in Ames coming in 1960.
Iowa State is going to be without its best defensive player in linebacker Jake Knott, who was a first-team All-Big 12 performer a year ago. The Cyclones are simply going to be overmatched talent-wise all over the field. They have averaged a mere 5 points/game in their last six meetings with Oklahoma.
The Sooners are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
|11-03-12||Miami (OH) v. Buffalo -3.5||24-27||Loss||-102||61 h 29 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -3.5
Buffalo is just 1-7 with its only win against an FCS opponent, yet it is still favored against Miami (Ohio) Saturday. Oddsmakers know what they're doing here folks, realizing that Buffalo is a better team than its record and one that should warrant a big wager as it crushes the Redhawks Saturday.
The Bulls have lost to seven FBS opponents this season with a combined record of 44-14 SU, including five one-loss teams. The only exceptions were Big East programs Pitt and UConn. Buffalo has been an underdog in all but one of those contests as it gave up 3 points to Kent State in Week 4, who beat Rutgers last week.
Buffalo has returned star running back Branden Oliver, who is arguably the most explosive player in the MAC. He rushed for 101 yards last week in a 25-20 loss to Toledo in his first game back from a knee injury suffered against the Golden Flashes back in September.
Miami (Ohio) is in a huge letdown spot here. It just beat instate rival Ohio 23-20 last Saturday, handing the Bobcats their first loss of the season. It will be very tough for the Redhawks to get up emotionally to play this Saturday and match their intensity from last week's home contest. It's just not going to happen.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Roll with Buffalo Saturday.
|11-02-12||Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||105-95||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are still trying to find their way. They are off to an 0-2 start this season, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering they have new players and a new system. Now, they'll be without PG Steve Nash for a few games due to injury. This team is simply a mess right now and it's going to take some time for them to jell.
After losing the race for the NBA Pacific division title by one game to the Lakers last season, the Clippers want to make a statement with a win here tonight in the first meeting between these teams. They are off to a solid start this season with a 101-92 home victory over Memphis on Wednesday. The bench scored 49 points in the win, led by newcomer Jamal Crawford's 29.
The Lakers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. Roll with the Clippers Friday.
|11-02-12||Washington +4.5 v. California||Top||21-13||Win||100||46 h 25 m||Show|
20* Washington/Cal ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +4.5
|11-02-12||Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +7||89-90||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +7
The Charlotte Bobcats finished with the worst winning percentage in NBA history last season. Clearly, this team is going to be undervalued heading into the 2012-13 season. That's certainly the case in their opener against Indiana tonight.
I really like some of the new pieces on this team that are going to make the Bobcats much more competitive this season. They have added Ramon Sessions, Brendan Haywood, Ben Gordon and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. These four newcomers join a trio of Gerald Henderson, Byron Mullens and Kemba Walker, who were the three best players on this team last year.
The Indiana Pacers were fortunate to come away with a 90-88 victory at Toronto in their opener. They won on a last-second jumper from George Hill after trailing for the majority of the game. Indiana was without Danny Granger, their top scorer, and it will be without him again tonight. There's no question the Pacers are a much worse team without Granger in the line-up. Take the Bobcats Friday.
|11-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||84-86||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. This is an aging team that will not handle these situations very well, especially without arguably their best player in Manu Ginobli. He is expected to miss a second straight game with a back injury.
San Antonio had to rally from a double-digit deficit in the first half to squeak out a 99-95 win at New Orleans last night. Its task gets a lot tougher tonight with the defending Western Conference champs coming to down Thursday.
Oklahoma City is still as strong of a team as it was a year ago even with the loss of James Harden. Kevin Martin averaged 17.1 points last season, and he had averaged more than 20 points in each of his previous five seasons. Martin will fill the scoring void left by the departed Harden.
The Thunder will be out to prove that they won't miss Harden with all of the talk that has been in the media since the trade. They will also be looking to win a 5th straight meeting with the Spurs after winning the final four games of a 4-2 series victory in the Western Conference Finals last season.
The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with San Antonio. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Oklahoma City. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.
|11-01-12||Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||13-31||Loss||-110||79 h 43 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City +8
The Kansas City Chiefs are arguably the best 1-6 team in the history of the NFL. As a result, they are undervalued heading into this rematch with the San Diego Chargers, who are clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
It's hard to go 1-6 when you rank 12th in the league in total offense (367.9 yards/game) and 18th in total defense (348.7 yards/game), so the Chiefs are actually outgaining their opponents by 19.2 yards/game. That's a number more indicative a team that's 4-3 instead of 1-6.
Sure, Kansas City has simply beaten itself with turnovers, committing 25 of them with a -18 turnover differential on the season. Sooner rather than later, this team is going to figure out how to take care of the football, and I'm banking on that being tonight.
San Diego beat Kansas City 37-20 in the first meeting, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Chiefs actually outgained the Chargers 349-293 for the game, but they committed six turnovers to give the game away. I look for them to learn from their mistakes and not gift wrap this one to the Chargers.
San Diego is reeling itself, losing three straight games to the Saints, Broncos and Browns. This team has a lot more pressure on it because public perception says that they continue to underachieve every year. However, Philip Rivers and the offense just simply isn't that good. San Diego ranks 25th in the league in total offense (321.0 yards/game). Rivers really misses former Charger greats LT, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a home loss against a division rival. Take the Chiefs Thursday.
|11-01-12||Virginia Tech v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 58||Top||12-30||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on VA Tech/Miami UNDER 58
Oddsmakers have inflated this total in Thursday's ACC rivalry between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Miami Hurricanes. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012 season in ACC play.
Virginia Tech was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the country this season. While it hasn't been up to par on this side of the ball, a closer look says that the Hokies have actually been pretty good on defense.
The Hokies are giving up 24.0 points and 370 total yards/game this season. Sure, that doesn't sound great, but when you consider that the eight opponents they've played average 30.3 points and 411 total yards/game, it's easy to see that they've simply been up against some of the best offenses in the country. They've actually done a pretty good job, holding them to 6.3 points and 41 total yards less than their season averages.
Miami's defense hasn't been spectacular this season, but it has had a similar problem to Virginia Tech. It has simply played eight opposing offenses that average 31.4 points and 430 total yards per game. Both team's defensive numbers have been inflated due to the quality of offenses they have faced.
Neither of these offenses is really lighting it up as Virginia Tech averages 29.0 points overall and 23.0 on the road. Miami averages 26.9 points and 29.0 at home. I look for both teams to be held below their season averages in this one.
I believe a big reason this total is inflated is due to last year's meeting, which saw Virginia Tech win 38-35 at home. That final was simply an aberration considering the total was set at 45.5 points, so oddsmakers were expecting a much lower-scoring game. Eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 58 or less combined points. That 73-point outburst last year was the only exception.
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and that extra preparation certainly favors the defense. There won't be any element of surprise as both teams have had two weeks to prepare for one another. The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Hurricanes last 60 home games.
Virginia Tech is 13-2 to the UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-2 in Hokies last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games following a bye week. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami. These five trends combine for a 42-4 (91% System) backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-31-12||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 200||87-85||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER 200
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low for this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns. These have been two of the best offensive teams in the league for years, and also two of the worst defensive teams. That likely won't change this season with the way their rosters are made up.
Stephen Curry is healthy to start the season for the Warriors, which is going to be huge for them offensively. He'll be leading a talented corps of players that includes David Lee, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes. All four of these players are below-average defensively, but each is above-average on offense.
The Suns will be without Steve Nash, but he's far past his prime. They have brought back Goran Dragic, who started the final 26 games for Houston last season and averaged 18.2 points and 8.3 assists. Dragic will be the face of the franchise for years to come, and he'll help the Suns pick up right where they left off with Nash as he does many of the same things offensively.
23 of the last 26 meetings between these teams have seen 200 or more combined points. That makes for a 23-3 (88%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-31-12||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +6.5||99-95||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value Wednesday the San Antonio Spurs as a home underdog in their opener. This is a team that will be improved this season, and one that is under the radar in the early going.
New Orleans was gifted the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft and it selected Kentucky's Anthony Davis. Eric Gordon opens the season healthy and ready to go, which will be a huge boost if he can stay that way. They also signed Ryan Anderson, a big man that can stretch the court with his ability to shoot the 3-ball.
This team will be much better off offensively with Gordon and Anderson, while Davis will be able to erase defensive mistakes inside. They added both Robin Lopez and Hakim Warrick to add to a very nice rotation of post players.
The Hornets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Hornets. The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings as well. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|10-31-12||Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||75-84||Loss||-107||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams heading into the 2012-13 season. I believe they will challenge the Lakers and Thunder come season's end, and they could end up with the best record in the Western Conference.
Denver goes 10 deep and everyone can score. It traded for Andre Iguodala, giving them the wing defender and offensive slasher it needed. With Ty Lawson running the show, this is going to be one of the best offensive teams in the league once again.
The Philadelphia 76ers are going in a different direction after trading for Andrew Bynum. It will take some time for this team to jell as they go from a guard-led team to one that runs their offense through Bynum. The Nuggets are the more-ready team heading into this opener.
The Nuggets closed out last season with a loss in the playoffs, and they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference foes. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|10-30-12||Dallas Mavericks +8.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||99-91||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Lakers 2012-13 NBA Season Opener on Dallas +8.5
The Dallas Mavericks are showing great value in their season opener against the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday. The hype surrounding the Lakers has them way overvalued early in the season due to the additions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash.
It's going to take some time for this new-look team to jell in the early going. That has been evident by their 0-8 start in the preseason. Plus, Kobe Bryant is a game-time decision tonight with a foot injury.
Dallas has added some nice pieces this season in PG Darren Collison, SG O.J. Mayo, F Elton Brand and C Eddy Curry. You'll likely see these four in the starting line-up tonight along with Shawn Marion. This team easily has enough talent even without Dirk to give the Lakers a run for their money in the opener.
The road team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings in this series. The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet Dallas Tuesday.
|10-29-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7||Top||24-3||Loss||-120||176 h 31 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Arizona +7
The Arizona Cardinals are showing awesome value as a touchdown underdog at home to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are way overvalued in this spot against a Cardinals team that simply does not get the respect it deserves.
Arizona has opened 4-3, and even with a win at New England and a home victory over Philadelphia, this team just gets no love from the books or the betting public. That's evident by the fact that they are a 7-point underdog at home here against a division rival.
Sure, the Cardinals have lost three straight since a 4-0 start, but they easily could have won all three of those contests. They outgained St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota in all three of those contests, and arguably should have won all three because of it. They outgained the Vikings 356-209 in a 14-21 road loss last week.
Arizona's offense is in better hands with John Skelton instead of Kevin Kolb, but what makes this team so underrated is its defense. The Cardinals are giving up just 16.9 points/game while ranking 7th in the league in total defense (312.3 yards/game). They have allowed 23 or fewer points in 16 straight games dating back to last season which is absolutely mind-blowing to me.
These are two pretty evenly matched teams with great defenses, though I would give the edge to the 49ers offensively. However, they have no business laying a touchdown on the road here, especially after losing at Arizona 19-21 last season as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals outgained the 49ers 325-233, and Skelton threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns in the win. After that performance, Skelton won't be intimidated by San Francisco's defense one bit. Alex Smith went 18 of 37 passing for 175 yards for the 49ers.
The Cardinals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in it last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Cardinals are 34-13 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992. The 49ers are 4-14 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game since 1992. Arizona is 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arizona Monday.
|10-28-12||New Orleans Saints +6.5 v. Denver Broncos||Top||14-34||Loss||-110||152 h 34 m||Show|
20* Saints/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +6.5
The New Orleans Saints are undervalued at this point in the season because of their 2-4 start. This team has rebounded nicely with two straight wins, and I like them to carry that momentum into Denver Sunday night. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, but they aren't getting treated like it because of their slow start, which has them under the radar.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye and they are way overvalued because of it. This is a quality team and one that I picked to win the AFC West, but they have no business being this heavily favored against the Saints. I would actually make New Orleans a favorite on a neutral field, so I believe it is a stronger team despite its record. All four of its losses have come by 8 points or less.
The Saints have not missed a beat offensively this season, and with Drew Brees and company this isn't a team that is going to lose by a touchdown or more very often. They can always come back from any deficit, just like they did against the Bucs last week. They were down 7-21 and scored 28 unanswered points, eventually winning 35-28. They are scoring 29.3 points/game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total offense (411.3 yards/game).
New Orleans is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 17.0 points/game. The The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The Saints are 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. These five trends combine for a 39-3 (93%) system backing New Orleans. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|10-28-12||Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -1||26-16||Loss||-120||122 h 8 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -1
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a must-win spot already early in the season. Their bye week could not have come at a better time as they've had a chance to regroup after a 1-5 start. I believe this team is much better than its record, and as a result the Chiefs are way undervalued at this point of the season.
Kansas City ranks 8th in the NFL in total offense (379.3 yards/game), including 3rd in rushing (164.0 yards/game). It is also a respectable 15th in total defense (349.5 yards/game). As you can see, the Chiefs are outgaining opponents by roughly 30 yards/game this season. These numbers are more indicative of a 4-2 team rather than one that's 1-5 like Kansas City.
I believe Oakland is every bit as bad as its 2-4 record. It ranks 19th in the league in total offense (350.0 yards/game) and 17th in total defense (356.7 yards/game). Those numbers about right on par with its 2-4 record.
Both of the Raiders' wins have come on last-second field goals at home against the Jaguars and Steelers, who outgained them by 112 total yards and managed to blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter. The Raiders are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 18.7 points/game.
The Chiefs have simply been shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers all season. They have committed 21 turnovers through six games already, and that pace simply will not keep up. There's no doubt they addressed that issue during their bye week, and I look for Kansas City to take much better care of the football with Brady Quinn getting the start over Matt Cassel. Look for the Chiefs to rely on their third-ranked rushing attack as Jamaal Charles has a monster game against Oakland.
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders are 1-13 ATS vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. These three trends combine for a 28-2 (93%) system backing Kansas City. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|10-28-12||New England Patriots -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams||45-7||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
15* Pats/Rams NFL Sunday No-Brainer on New England -6.5
The New England Patriots should be a much bigger favorite over the St. Louis Rams on a neutral field Sunday in London. They'll have no problem beating the St. Louis Rams by more than a touchdown.
Somehow, the Patriots are a bit under the radar this season because they have three early losses. Those three came by a combined four points as this team could easily be undefeated this season. Public perception is down on them right now because of their overtime win against the Jets last week, but these are the same old Patriots.
The offense is clicking as well as it ever had this season. New England is scoring 31.0 points/game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense (436.1 yards/game). Their offense is a lot more balanced this season as they rank 5th in rushing (149.3 yards/game) and 5th in passing (286.9 yards/game). Even the defense is improved.
The Rams are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they have three wins in the early going, which is more than they had all of last year. This is still one of the worst teams in the league, and they'll be exposed against the Patriots just like they were in a 20-30 home loss to the Packers last week. Aaron Rodgers went 30 of 37 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, and you know Tom Brady is going to have similar success.
St. Louis is 0-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 14.3 points/game. It doesn't have the offensive firepower it takes to keep up with the Patriots in this one. It is scoring 18.3 points/game overall this season while ranking 28th in the league in total offense (315.3 yards/game).
The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a home loss over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 16.0 points/game. St. Louis is 1-11 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992, losing in this spot by 19.5 points/game. The Rams are 0-8 ATS in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992, losing by 21.5 points/game. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-28-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1||30-17||Loss||-125||119 h 4 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Eagles NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia -1
This is a more important game for the Philadelphia Eagles than it is for the Atlanta Falcons as both teams are coming in off a bye. Atlanta is 6-0 on the season and not as good as its record, while Philly is 3-3 and better than its record in my opinion. The Eagles cannot afford to drop to 3-4, while the Falcons can afford a loss.
Andy Reid always works his magic on bye weeks with his players. He is the best head coach in the business during a bye week. That's evident by the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 13-0 when coming off a bye under Reid.
The switch to a new defensive coordinator could not have come at a better time. I look for the Eagles to come up with more big plays and more sacks with their new, more aggressive style. They have been pretty good on this side of the ball anyways, ranking 11th in the league in total defense (330.8 yards/game). They are also 7th in total offense (379.2 yards/game) and haven't reached their potential on that side of the ball.
Atlanta should have lost two of its last three games to the Carolina Panthers and Oakland Raiders. Matt Ryan overcame three interceptions and set up Matt Bryant's game-winning field goal as time expired to give his team a 30-28 home victory over Carolina on 9/30. The Falcons were outgained 357-449 in a 23-20 home victory over the Oakland Raiders on 10/14 that also ended in a Bryant game-winning field goal. Their luck runs out Sunday.
Philly should have won in Atlanta last season, but it lost 35-31. It was outgained 14-0 in the fourth quarter after Michael Vick went out in the third period with a rib injury. The Eagles outgained the Falcons 447-318 for the game and clearly outplayed them despite losing. At home this time around, I look for the Eagles to get their revenge and dominate on the field and on the scoreboard.
This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. Philly is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Atlanta, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|10-28-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Detroit Lions -1||24-28||Win||100||119 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions -1
The Detroit Lions have certainly underachieved up to this point of the season after making the playoffs last year. As a result, they are way undervalued heading into their Week 8 showdown at home with the Seattle Seahawks, who are way overvalued after their surprising, fortunate start.
Detroit is a much better team than its 2-4 record would indicate. It is still moving the ball at will, and the defense is better than it gets credit for. The Lions rank 4th in the league in total offense (406.3 yards/game) and 8th in total defense (319.5 yards/game). Those are numbers more indicative of a 4-2, 5-1 or 6-0 team rather than one that is 2-4. This team has simply been beating itself with turnovers, but I look for them to shore up that problem this week.
Seattle has been fortunate to open 4-3 this season. It was gift-wrapped a win over the Packers by the replacement officials, and somehow managed to beat the Patriots despite giving up 475 total yards. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this year where magic seems to happen, but they are just 1-3 on the road, scoring a mere 12.7 points/game away from home.
The Seahawks do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Lions, who simply will want this game more as they cannot afford to fall to 2-5 if they want to make the playoffs. Seattle is scoring just 16.6 points/game this season while ranking 30th in the NFL in total offense (293.6 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on favorites (DETROIT) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet Detroit Sunday.
|10-27-12||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 47.5||7-38||Win||100||93 h 36 m||Show|
15* Miss State/Alabama ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47.5
I look for a defensive battle Saturday between Mississippi State and Alabama. These are two of the best defenses in the country, and points will be hard to come by, especially for the Bulldogs.
Alabama gives up just 8.3 points/game while ranking 1st in the country in total defense (195.6 yard/game). They rank 1st against the run (58.7 yards/game) and 2nd against the pass (136.9 yards/game) as they simply do not give up an inch.
Mississippi State is yielding just 14.4 points/game while ranking 25th in total defense (327.7 yards/game). Both offenses are kind of vanilla, and each will struggle to move the football on these two stop units.
Each of the last 14 meetings in this series have seen 44 or less combined points with the under going 9-2 in those contests. Considering the total is 47.5 for this meeting, that makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1998. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-27-12||Notre Dame +10 v. Oklahoma||30-13||Win||100||92 h 7 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to get no respect despite their 7-0 start and No. 5 ranking in the BCS and AP polls. I look for head coach Brian Kelly to use the fact that they are 10-point underdogs as big motivation for his team heading into this game with Oklahoma.
Notre Dame has to be feeling disrespected right now and wanting to take out its frustration on the Sooners. It has beaten three ranked teams along the way to this 7-0 start with victories over then-No. 18 Michigan, then-No. 10 Michigan State and then-No. 17 Stanford.
The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-1 start and have pretty much made easy work of everyone expect Kansas State. Well, the Wildcats were the only real physical team that the Sooners have faced, and they beat Oklahoma in Norman 24-19. Oklahoma has only beaten one ranked team this season in Texas, who are clearly down again this season.
As I mentioned before, Notre Dame is a physical team like Kansas State, and that's why it will have success against this soft Oklahoma squad. The Irish give up just 9.4 points/game while ranking 6th in the country in total defense (280.7 yards/game), including 15th against the run (106.7 yards/game) and 13th against the pass (174.0 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses on defense. They are also 38th in rushing offense (193.9 yards/game), winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The Irish are 6-0 ATS n road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons, winning by 21.1 points/game in this spot. Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|10-27-12||Central Florida -2 v. Marshall||54-17||Win||100||92 h 6 m||Show|
15* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -2
The UCF Knights are clearly the superior team in this showdown with Marshall Saturday. The oddsmakers have this one right as they have installed them as a road favorite in this Conference USA clash.
UCF is 5-2 this season with its only losses coming against BCS opponents Ohio State and Missouri. Its five wins have all come by a touchdown or more, and four have come by 13 points or more. This team is clearly the real deal in 2012 and the class of Conference USA.
Marshall is just 3-4 on the season with its only wins coming against Western Carolina, Rice and Southern Miss. Many bettors like Marshall because of their gaudy offensive numbers, but this team doesn't play a lick of defense, which is where this game will be decided.
UCF ranks 38th in the country in total defense (352.9 yards/game) while also giving up only 22.0 points/game. Marshall ranks 100th in total defense (450.0 yards/game) and gives up 41.6 points/game. The Knights will be able to hold the Thundering Herd's offense in check while also scoring at will on their suspect defense.
This play is a lot about program dominance too as the Knights have owned the Thundering Herd this decade. UCF is a perfect 7-0 SU in seven meetings with Marshall dating back to 2005. It should be a much bigger favorite Saturday as it goes for its eighth straight victory in this series. Roll with UCF Saturday.
|10-27-12||Navy +5 v. East Carolina||Top||56-28||Win||100||119 h 17 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Navy +5
The Navy Midshipmen represent my favorite underdog bet for the entire 2012 college football season Saturday. They should not be a dog in a game that I fully expect them to win outright. I'll just take the points for some insurance here folks.
Navy has won three straight since making the switch to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who is easily their best playmaker. He replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game, leading the Midshipmen to a 28-21 overtime victory of the comeback variety on the road.
Reynolds scored on a 15-yard touchdown run to tie the game at 21-21 with 6:35 remaining in the fourth quarter. He threw three touchdown passes in a win 31-13 win at Central Michigan the next week, and led another comeback 31-30 home win over a very underrated Indiana team last Saturday.
This team clearly has a ton of confidence in Reynolds and they will ride their momentum into East Carolina this weekend. Reynolds is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 362 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions on 37 attempts. He has also rushed for 165 yards and two scores, and his dual-threat ability makes him perfect for this offense.
Navy wants revenge from a 35-38 home loss to East Carolina last season. Its last trip to East Carolina resulted in a 76-35 victory for the Midshipmen in 2010. The Pirates are simply overrated at 5-3 this season as their five wins have come against Appalachian State, Southern Miss, UTEP, Memphis and UAB.
As you can see, the Pirates have not beaten a worthy opponents yet. Their three losses came against South Carolina (10-48), North Carolina (6-27) and UCF (20-40). They weren't even competitive when they took a step up in competition. Navy is a much better team than all five of the squads that East Carolina has beaten this season.
Navy is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 17.7 points/game. East Carolina is 1-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. It is losing in this spot by 12.4 points/game. Bet Navy Saturday.
|10-27-12||Florida v. Georgia +7||Top||9-17||Win||100||89 h 49 m||Show|
20* Gators/Bulldogs SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7
The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now after opening the season 7-0. They were underrated in the first half of the season, but now it's time to switch gears and fade them Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia is undervalued at this point of the year after its 6-1 start. It has not played up to its potential after winning the SEC East last season. The Bulldogs are still at least even with Florida talent-wise, and I believe they put their best foot forward Saturday with the East title at stake. A loss would eliminate Georgia in the title race.
The reason Florida is so overvalued here is because it beat South Carolina 44-11 last week at home. That was one of the most misleading scores I've ever seen as it was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Gators were actually outgained 183-191 by the Gamecocks, but South Carolina was -4 in turnovers and set Florida up with several easy scores.
The last two meetings in this series were decided by four points or less, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire again. Georgia beat Florida 24-20 last season while outgaining the Gators 354-226.
Georgia has a much more potent offense than Florida, and while I'll admit the Gators have the better defense, the gap in talent on that side of the ball isn't that far off. Georgia ranks 18th in the country in total offense (486.9 yards/game) while Florida ranks 101st in total offense (350.4 yards/game). Georgia ranks 47th in total defense (367.4 yards/game), but it will be much improved on this side of the ball as the season goes on with the return of several suspended defensive starters recently.
The Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take Georgia Saturday.
|10-27-12||BYU v. Georgia Tech -2.5||41-17||Loss||-108||87 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -2.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are undervalued at this point in the season due to their slow start. This team is much better than its 3-4 record would indicate, and it certainly cannot afford to lose this contest if it wants to become bowl eligible by season's end.
Three of Georgia Tech's losses have come against Virginia Tech and Clemson on the road, and Miami at home. The Yellow Jackets arguably should have won all three of those contests as they blew a 3-point lead over the final minute against the Hokies, a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against Miami, and a 31-30 fourth quarter lead against Clemson.
BYU is coming off a tough 14-17 loss at Notre Dame as it lost in the final seconds to fall to 4-4 on the season. This team simply has not been able to generate enough offense to win games consistently in 2012. It has been held to 24 or less points in five of its last six games, going 2-4 in the process.
BYU has a very good defense, but it has been up against some very weak competition all season on the offensive end. Opposing teams that BYU has played have only averaged 22.6 points and 355 total yards/game this season. The Cougars will have their hands full with a Georgia Tech offense that ranks 15th in the country at 497.7 total yards/game.
The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Independent teams. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|10-27-12||Tennessee +14 v. South Carolina||35-38||Win||100||84 h 5 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +14
The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching two touchdowns against the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday. The Vols are way undervalued due to their 0-4 start in SEC play which couldn't have come against tougher competition.
All four of Tennessee's losses in the SEC have come against Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama, which are four teams that all rank within the Top 13 in the AP Poll. It doesn't get a whole lot easier against South Carolina Saturday, but I believe they catch the Gamecocks in a great spot.
South Carolina is reeling from two straight losses to LSU and Florida that essentially knocked them out of the national title and SEC East title races. I fully expect the Gamecocks to suffer a hangover from those two defeats and not show up Saturday knowing that their goals have been stripped away from them over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will be extra motivated for its first conference victory. It played both Georgia and Mississippi State tough on the road, losing by just 7 points to Georgia and 10 to Mississippi State. It should have no problem staying within two touchdowns Saturday in a game it can win outright.
South Carolina simply does not have the offensive firepower it takes to cover this big of a spread against a team that is just as talented. The Gamecocks only won 14-3 in Knoxville last season against a Vols team that was playing without star quarterback Tyler Bray and star wide receiver Justin Hunter, who were both out with injuries.
Bray is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Hunter has caught 39 balls for 567 yards and four scores. Having these two healthy this time around will make a huge difference in the outcome of this rematch.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 12.6 points/game. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in South Carolina. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|10-26-12||Nevada -3 v. Air Force||Top||31-48||Loss||-110||71 h 37 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -3
The Nevada Wolf Pack should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the Air Force Falcons. I'll gladly back them as only a 3-point favorite here. The Falcons are simply overmatched in this one.
Nevada is a dynamic offensive team that the Falcons will have a hard time keeping up with on the scoreboard. It is scoring 40.6 points/game while averaging 541.1 total yards/game, ranking 6th in the country in total offense. They beat teams behind a balanced attack that features 272.0 yards on the ground and 269.1 through the air.
The Wolf Pack could easily be 8-0 right now, but they are 6-2 due to two losses by exactly one point each. Coming off a 38-39 overtime loss to San Diego State last week, this team will be highly motivated to bounce back with a victory tonight. Nevada is 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 44.0 to 26.5 in the process.
Nevada takes advantage of its red zone opportunities, scoring on 37 of 44 possessions inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Of those 37 scores, a whopping 32 have been touchdowns! Air Force has converted just 21 of 30 trips inside the red zone. Air Force has given up 24 scores on 27 trips by opponents into the red zone, including 19 touchdowns.
The Falcons have faced a very soft schedule with poor offensive teams along the way. Still, they are giving up a ridiculous 427.4 yards/game, ranking 83rd in the country in total defense. They are giving up 222 rushing yards/game and 5.4/carry on the ground, while Nevada is yielding a respectable 156 yards/game and 4.3/carry.
Air Force is 0-7 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Chris Ault is 9-1 ATS versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of Nevada. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Nevada Friday.
|10-25-12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||36-17||Win||100||56 h 11 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers represent my strongest Thursday night play of the entire 2012 season in Week 8. I recommend buying this up to +7 just to be safe, but I believe the Bucs have an excellent chance to win this game outright tonight.
Tampa is just 2-4 this season, but it has been much better than its record would indicate. All four losses have come by 7 points or less, so they could easily be a winning team right now had things gone their way down the stretch of games. This is also a reason why I recommend buying it to 7 because I cannot see the Bucs losing by more than a touchdown for the first time all year.
Minnesota is one of the most overrated teams in the league after its 5-2 start. Now is the time to fade this team considering it is way overvalued heading into Week 8. The Vikings beat the Cardinals 21-14 at home last week despite getting outgained 356-209. Arizona simply gave the game away with costly turnovers.
I like Tampa's balance offensively as it averages 101.2 yards on the ground and 245.5 through the air. While the Bucs' biggest weakness is their pass defense, that won't come into play Thursday because the Vikings are a terrible passing team, ranking 27th in the league in passing offense (203.4 yards/game).
This is just such a good match-up for the Bucs because of their ability to stop the run. Tampa ranks 3rd in the league in run defense (76.0 yards/game), while the Vikings are 7th in rushing offense (132.3 yards/game). So Tampa's poor pass defense gets negated by Minnesota's poor passing offense, and Tampa's dominant run defense will contain Adrian Peterson and Minnesota's above-average rushing offense.
Tampa is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota. The Bucs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 road games. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win. Bet Tampa Bay Thursday.
|10-25-12||Detroit Tigers -120 v. San Francisco Giants||0-2||Loss||-120||9 h 52 m||Show|
15* Tigers/Giants World Series Game 2 No-Brainer on Detroit -120
After losing Game 1 with ace Justin Verlander on the mound, I look for Doug Fister to pick up the team in Game 2 with a dominant performance against the Giants. Madison Bumgarner has been terrible this postseason, and he's not about to turn it around on the biggest stage in baseball.
Fister is 10-10 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in 28 starts this season. He has been dominant in two postseason starts, posting a 1.35 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 13 1/3 innings.
Bumgarner went 16-13 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 34 starts this season. The young left-hander has folded in the postseason, going 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs, three homers and 17 base runners over 8 innings.
The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit is 4-0 in its last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Giants are 2-8 in Bumgarner's last 10 starts as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 16-2 (89%) system backing Detroit. Roll with the Tigers in Game 2 Thursday.
|10-25-12||Clemson -11.5 v. Wake Forest||42-13||Win||100||46 h 7 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Wake Forest ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -11.5
Provided Clemson doesn't commit numerous self-inflicted wounds, it should win this game by three-plus touchdowns against overmatched Wake Forest Thursday. The Tigers simply have the edge in talent and speed in this one, and the Demon Deacons aren't going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
The No. 14 Tigers (6-1, 3-1) are averaging 40.9 points and 492.9 yards per game, and they haven't scored fewer than 37 points since a season-opening 26-19 win over Auburn on Sept. 1. They rank 1st in red zone scoring offense, converting 32 of 33 trips into points, including 23 touchdowns. They are also a surprising 16th in red zone defense, giving up just 18 scores in 26 trips, including a mere 12 touchdowns.
Wake Forest is nowhere near as good as its 4-3 record would indicate. Three of those wins have come against Liberty, Army and Virginia. The Demon Deacons rank just 112th in the country in total offense (316.1 yards/game), and they are scoring a mere 22.0 points/game. They have been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking 73rd in total defense (405.0 yards/game).
Clemson has won three straight over Wake Forest by a combined score of 99-41. Sure, the Tigers only won 31-28 at home last year, but that final score was very misleading. Clemson outgained Wake 522-317 for the game, but it was -3 in turnovers and allowed a punt return for a touchdown.
When teams outgain opponents by more than 200 yards, they usually win by at least two touchdowns. I expect the Tigers to eliminate their self-inflicted wounds this time around.
The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Demon Deacons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Wake is 1-11 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Clemson is 8-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take Clemson Thursday.
|10-24-12||Detroit Tigers -163 v. San Francisco Giants||Top||3-8||Loss||-163||28 h 8 m||Show|
25* MLB Postseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -163
The San Francisco Giants won't lay down in Game 1, but they are essentially conceding this contest by throwing Barry Zito out there against Justin Verlander. They know they don't want to use one of their horses against Verlander, so they are basically throwing Zito to the wolves.
I know Zito came up big for them against St. Louis last series, but let's be honest, he is far past his prime and no match for Verlander. Zito has posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 34 starts this season.
That's a far cry from Verlander, who is 20-8 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 36 starts this season. The 2011 AL Cy Young and AL MVP winner has been untouchable in the postseason. Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 0.617 WHIP in three postseason starts, allowing just two earned runs over 24 1/3 innings.
San Francisco is likely to relax in Game 1 after winning three straight elimination games to close out St. Louis last series. They will take a collective sigh of relief, and I look for them to put forth a sloppy performance in this one. In fact, they have lost Game 1 in each of their first two series this postseason. Detroit will come out ready to go after having so much time off to rest after sweeping the Yankees in the ALCS.
The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. Detroit is 6-0 in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite. The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Detroit is 4-0 in its last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Tigers. Also, Detroit is 44-10 in Verlander's last 54 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Tigers in Game 1.
|10-23-12||Arkansas State +4.5 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||Top||50-27||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
20* Arkansas State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +4.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt last season with an unbeaten 8-0 record in conference play. They have the talent again in 2012 to repeat as champs, and a win over Louisiana-Lafayette tonight would be a big step in that direction.
Arkansas State is off to a 4-3 start this season. Its only losses have come on the road against Oregon and Nebraska out of conference, and Western Kentucky within the conference. The Red Wolves blew a 13-0 halftime lead to the Hilltoppers, who are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt.
Louisiana-Lafayette has played a much softer schedule than Arkansas State, which is a big reason why it is 4-2 right now. Its four wins have come against Lamar, Troy, Florida International and Tulane. Despite playing a weaker schedule than the Arkansas State, the Rajin' Cajuns have posted worse numbers.
The Red Wolves rank 35th in the country in total offense (448.7 yards/game) and 52nd in total defense (376.3 yards/game). The Rajin' Cajuns rank 62nd in total offense (404.5 yards/game) and 81st in total defense (422.2 yards/game). As you can see, Lafayette is actually getting outgained on the season.
Lafayette lost at North Texas last Tuesday 23-30, while Arkansas State beat South Alabama 36-29 at home last Saturday. That means the Red Wolves have had three extra days to prepare for the Rajin' Cajuns, which is clearly advantage. Also, Lafayette's top two receivers in Harry Peoples and Javone Lawson were knocked out of the North Texas game, and each is questionable to return Tuesday.
Arkansas State beat Lafayette 30-21 last year. Quarterback Ryan Aplin had a big day, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score. Aplin has been solid again this season, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,572 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 244 yards and three scores.
This play falls into a system that is 69-30 (69.7%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against home favorites (LA LAFAYETTE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.
|10-22-12||Detroit Lions +5 v. Chicago Bears||Top||7-13||Loss||-103||176 h 37 m||Show|
20* Lions/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Detroit +5
The Detroit Lions are simply catching too many points Monday night against the Chicago Bears. This NFC North rivalry will go right down to the wire. Chicago is getting too much credit here for coming off its bye week, which won't be as big of a factor as this line is indicating.
Detroit is one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of the NFL. All three losses have come by 8 points or less. It is coming off a huge 26-23 overtime victory at Philadelphia last week, giving it a ton of momentum heading into this showdown with the hated Bears.
The biggest indicator that the Lions are way underrated and better than their record is their offensive/defensive statistics. They rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense (419.6 yards/game) and 9th in total defense (324.2 yards/game). Those numbers would be more representative of a team that is 4-1 right now, instead of 2-3.
The biggest reason for Detroit's poor start is its inability to force turnovers. Safety Louis Delmas, one of the most underrated defensive backs in the league, came up with one of Detroit's two interceptions against Philly last week. It has not had a pick in any of its first four games. It's no surprise that Delmas' season debut, after missing the first four games due to injury, resulted in the team's first two picks.
Chicago is one of the most overrated teams in the league. It has forced 17 turnovers this season, and several have been returned for touchdowns. There's no way this team can keep forcing turnovers at this rate and turning them into scores like they have been. While the defense is solid, the offense still has a long ways to go. Chicago ranks just 20th in the league in total offense (346.2 yards/game).
Detroit put an end to a six-game losing streak to Chicago last season with a 24-13 home victory. It would lose the rematch 13-37 on the road, but the Lions simply gave that game away. Chicago had two interceptions returned for touchdowns and an 82-yard punt return for a score, getting 21 points from the defense and special teams. The Bears won in a blowout despite getting outgained 216-393! They won't be so fortunate this time around.
The Lions are 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing <=70 rushing yards/game since 1992. Chicago is 4-17 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October. Bet Detroit Monday.
|10-22-12||St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -131||0-9||Win||100||9 h 0 m||Show|
15* Cards/Giants NLCS Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -131
The San Francisco Giants have fought back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7. They have all the momentum right now, and my money will be on them in Game 7 because of it. Having ace Matt Cain on the mound doesn't hurt, either.
Cain has had another brilliant season at 17-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.052 WHIP over 35 starts. He's been his most dominant at home, going 8-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.916 WHIP in 16 starts. Cain hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his three postseason starts thus far.
The Cardinals are 8-18 in Lohse's last 26 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 1-4 in Lohse's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. San Francisco is 21-10 in Cain's last 31 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Giants in Game 7 Monday.
|10-21-12||Pittsburgh Steelers -135 v. Cincinnati Bengals||24-17||Win||100||151 h 29 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh Money Line -135
I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night when they travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals. This is one of the best 2-3 teams the NFL has ever seen, and they'll make a statement here on National TV on NBC as they simply want this one more.
Pittsburgh could easily be 5-0 right now as it has blown 4th quarter leads in all three of its losses, which have all come on the road. It will be extremely motivated to prove that it can win on the road, and I look for the Steelers to put forth their best effort of the season in this one.
Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. After getting off to a 3-1 start, it has lost its last two games to the Dolphins and Browns to come back down to reality. The Bengals simply have weaknesses all over the field that the Steelers are going to exploit, especially defensively.
The Steelers have had a ton of injuries defensively, but what's amazing is that they still have one of the best stop units in the league. They rank 5th in the NFL in total defense (295.8 yards/game), including 4th against the pass (200.8 yards/game). That's huge because the Bengals have been able to pass the ball with consistency this season, but they have had very little success on the ground.
Pittsburgh is 17-5 SU in its last 22 meetings in Cincinnati. The Steelers have swept the season series with the Bengals each of the last two years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the process. Simply put, the Steelers aren't going to be denied tonight as they cannot afford to fall to 2-4 on the season.
The Steelers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC, and 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North foes. Roll with Pittsburgh Sunday.
|10-21-12||Green Bay Packers -5.5 v. St. Louis Rams||Top||30-20||Win||100||144 h 1 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -5.5
The Green Bay Packers might be the best 3-3 team in the history of the NFL. Because of their three early losses, this team is actually a bit undervalued right now. They should be more than a 7-point favorite against the Rams this week, but since they're not I'll take advantage and back them at less than a touchdown as my strongest play in the NFC for the 2012 season.
The St. Louis Rams are way overrated right now after opening the season 3-3, which is one more win than they had all of last season. They suffered a big loss when Danny Amendola went out with a collarbone injury against the Cardinals two weeks ago. He was by far Sam Bradford's favorite target, and this offense has no chance of keeping up with the Packers without him.
St. Louis is only averaging 18.3 points/game and it ranks just 28th in total offense (308.8 yards/game). Green Bay features an improved stop unit that ranks 14th in the NFL in total defense (340.3 yards/game). It limited the Houston Texans to just 321 total yards in a 42-24 road victory on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. I look for the Packers to build off of their strongest performance of the season and dominate the Rams Sunday.
Green Bay is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with St. Louis. It has won by 21, 19 and 19 points in those three contests, or by an average of 19.7 points/game. Two of those victories came on the road. I expect a similar blowout in this one as the Packers win their fourth straight over the hapless Rams.
The Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot 38.7 to 16.9, or by an average of 21.8 points/game. This could be one of the biggest blowouts of the season ladies and gents. Bet Green Bay Sunday.
|10-21-12||New Orleans Saints -2.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Top||35-28||Win||100||144 h 1 m||Show|
20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints -2.5
The New Orleans Saints might be the best 1-4 team in the history of the NFL. Because of their slow start, which includes four losses by 8 points or less and several blown leads, this team is way undervalued right now heading into Week 7.
New Orleans is still one of the best teams in the league despite its record, hands down. It finally got a taste of victory with a 31-24 triumph at home over San Diego in Week 5. After a bye in Week 6, this team is refreshed and ready to get back to its old dominant ways with a blowout victory at Tampa Bay Sunday.
The Bucs are just 2-3 this season, and they are easily as bad as their record, if not worse. Their only wins have come at home against the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs, which are two teams with a combined 2-9 record. This team is hardly better off than it was a year ago.
I look for the Saints to go on a big run and possibly make the playoffs by season's end. Getting them as a 2.5-point favorite here is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as they are clearly the better team, and they're coming off a bye. Teams coming off a bye are 5-1 ATS this season.
This is a great match-up for the Saints. They are No. 1 in the NFL in passing offense (326.8 yards/game) behind more excellent play from star quarterback Drew Brees. He'll have his way with Tampa Bay stop unit that ranks 31st against the pass (312.2 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.
The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. The Bucs are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games. Take the Saints Sunday.
|10-21-12||Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Minnesota Vikings||14-21||Loss||-110||144 h 59 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +6
The Minnesota Vikings are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers heading into this contest with the Arizona Cardinals. Admittedly, BOTH teams are overrated after their 4-2 starts, but the clear value in this one is with the big road underdog.
Arizona has lost two straight after its 4-0 start, which included wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I look for it to want this one more after back-to-back defeats. I believe the betting public is simply making too big of a deal over the Kevin Kolb injury.
Remember, John Skelton beat Kolb out for the starting job coming into the season. The Cardinals have not been winning because of Kolb, they've actually been winning IN SPITE of him. In fact, Arizona ranks just 31st in total offense (283.5 yards/game), so if anything Skelton will be an upgrade. Plus, he'll be working on a full week of practice knowing he's the starter going in.
Arizona has been winning because of its defense. It ranks No. 10 in the league in total defense (329.5 yards/game), which is pretty impressive considering it has faced some of the best offenses in the NFL. Minnesota has faced some of the worst offenses in the league en route to its 4-2 start.
The Vikings are 0-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. They are losing in this spot 17.9 to 25.6, or by an average of 7.7 points/game. Arizona has an excellent chance to win outright. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|10-21-12||Washington Redskins +7 v. NY Giants||23-27||Win||100||144 h 59 m||Show|
15* Redskins/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on Washington +7
I locked this line in early in the week. I still like the Redskins at anything +4.5 or more as they have an excellent shot at beating the New York Giants outright Sunday. Washington is showing its best value of the season in this contest.
This is an NFC East rivalry, which is always played close to the vest. In fact, not many gave Washington a chance last year, but it went out and swept the eventual Super Bowl champs in the season series. Eli Manning threw four interceptions and no touchdowns while losing to the Redskins 14-28 on the road, and 10-23 at home in 2012.
Robert Griffin III has been the most impressive of all the rookie quarterbacks this season, and he's clearly the real deal in leading the Redskins to a 3-3 start. All three of their losses have come by 7 points or less, so he has given his team a chance to win every game. Griffin III is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,343 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 390 yards and six scores.
The Giants are in a huge letdown spot here after going on the road and beating the San Francisco 49ers 26-3 last Sunday. They are also way overvalued after that win because the 49ers simply gave that game to them. Alex Smith threw three interceptions, and all three set New York up with great field position. New York will likely be feeling a little too good about itself coming into this one, and it won't have the kind of focus it takes to beat the 'Skins by more than a touchdown.
The Redskins are 34-16 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. Washington is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC East opponents. The Redskins are 13-2 (87%) ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Take the Redskins Sunday.
|10-20-12||Middle Tennessee State +20.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||3-45||Loss||-109||125 h 43 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Middle Tennessee State +20.5
This Saturday, Middle Tennessee State represents my strongest bet for the entire 2012 college football season. I'll gladly take the 20.5 points at Mississippi State in a game that I believe the Blue Raiders could even win outright. This is way too many points given the situation.
I was big on Mississippi State coming into the season, and I backed them with success as a 3-point favorite in a 28-10 home win over Auburn, and as a 3-point favorite in a 41-31 home victory over Tennessee last week. However, I'm shifting gears this Saturday and fading them while they are overvalued.
First and foremost, the Bulldogs' only win by more than 20 points this season came in their opener against Jackson State. They only beat South Alabama 30-10 at home as a 31.5-point favorite. This team isn't built to blow out opponents as it relies on a dink and dunk offense, and a stout defense. It doesn't have the kind of offense that can just put teams away.
My biggest reason for fading Mississippi State here is the fact that it has No. 1 Alabama on deck. I look for these Bulldog players to come out disinterested in this non-conference game against Middle Tennessee State, which is why this thing has upset written all over it. There's no way these players can get up for the Blue Raiders after beating Tennessee, and with the Crimson Tide up next.
Another big reason I like the Blue Raiders to cover this week is the fact that they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened 4-2 this season, which includes a 49-28 road win at Georgia Tech as a 24.5-point underdog. They have proven they can hang with BCS competition, and they'll make this thing interesting against the Bulldogs as well.
MTSU quarterback Logan Kilgore is a high percentage passer who will be able to move the ball on this solid Mississippi State defense. He is completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,422 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Look for him to target stud receiver Anthony Amos, who has 39 receptions for 580 yards and five touchdowns, a lot.
The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. Sun Belt foes. As you can see, they don't play their best when stepping out of conference in recent years. Bet Middle Tennessee State Saturday.
|10-20-12||Western Michigan v. Kent State -3||24-41||Win||100||121 h 13 m||Show|
15* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State -3
The Kent State Golden Flashes have been going under the radar all season simply because they play in a small conference. Once again, this team is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as it hosts Western Michigan Saturday in MAC play.
Kent State returned 16 starters coming into the season and it may have its best team in school history. The Flashes are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming at Kentucky. Four of their five wins have come by 14 points or more, so this team isn't just squeaking by people.
Western Michigan is just 3-4 this season. It took a big hit when one of the top quarterbacks in school history went out with an injury. Alex Carder injured his throwing hand against UConn on September 22nd and has not played since. The Broncos have gone 1-2 without him, losing to Toledo 17-37 and Ball State 24-30. They're lone win during this stretch came against lowly UMass. Carder remains out Saturday.
Kent State is 2-0 at home this season while scoring 43.0 points/game. That's what is most impressive about its 5-1 start is that fact that it has played four road games already. Western Michigan is 0-3 on the road while scoring a mere 18.0 points/game in the process.
The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Kent State is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games on fieldturf. The favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Flashes. Roll with Kent State Saturday.
|10-20-12||South Florida +7 v. Louisville||25-27||Win||100||121 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +7
The South Florida Bulls have certainly underachieved this season after coming into the year as one of the favorites to win the Big East. As a result, this team is way undervalued at this point in the season. They are simply catching too many points at Louisville Saturday, and I'll take advantage.
South Florida still has all of its goals in front of them. After dropping four straight games by 13 points or less, its bye week could not have come at a better time. The Bulls have not played since October 6th, so they'll be refocused, reenergized, and ready to go Saturday against a ranked opponent.
Louisville is overvalued right now after its 6-0 start which has put the program in the Top 25. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly easy schedule to this point and there's no way they are as battle-tested as USF, which has played the likes of Florida State, Rutgers and Nevada. Five of the six teams that Louisville has faced have losing records on the season.
South Florida is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. It is winning in this spot 30.1 to 14.9, or by an average of 15.2 points/game. The Bulls will likely win this game outright folks. Bet South Florida Saturday.
|10-20-12||Indiana v. Navy -3.5||30-31||Loss||-105||121 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy -3.5
The Navy Midshipmen have been a completely different team since they made the switch to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds. I look for them to roll at home tonight over the deflated Indiana Hoosiers, who have suffered some painful losses here of late in Big Ten play.
Reynolds entered the game in the second half against Air Force an led Navy to a 28-21 overtime victory on the road. He came back last week against Central Michigan and led the Midshipmen to a 31-13 road win. Reynolds threw three touchdown passes, becoming the first Navy quarterback to do that since 1957. He also rushed for 59 yards as the Midshipmen outgained the Chippewas 372-221.
I look for Reynolds and company to carry their momentum into Saturday's showdown with deflated Indiana. The Hoosiers have lost four straight, including back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined seven points. They were down 18 with four minutes to go against the Buckeyes before making it interesting in garbage time.
Indiana players will suffer a hangover from those heartbreaking losses, and they'll have a hard time getting up for this contest after playing three straight Big Ten games. Plus, this is a terrible match-up for the Hoosiers because they simply cannot stop the run, and they won't be ready for Navy's triple-option attack.
Navy ranks 17th in the country in rushing offense (231.7 yards/game). Indiana ranks 109th in the country against the run (221.2 yards/game), which is easily its biggest weakness. The Hoosiers' strength is a passing offense (313.0 yards/game) that ranks 15th, but Navy's strength defensively is its 21st ranked pass defense (189.2 yards/game).
Indiana is 1-10 ATS after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored since 1992. The Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Midshipmen are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Take Navy Saturday.
|10-20-12||Virginia Tech +9 v. Clemson||17-38||Loss||-117||118 h 43 m||Show|
15* VA Tech/Clemson ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +9
The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now due to their slow start. Under Frank Beamer, this has been a very resilient program, and these players will bounce back in a big way Saturday. I believe they can win this game outright at Clemson.
Virginia Tech wants revenge after getting swept in two games against Clemson last season. It lost in the regular season, and then again in the ACC title game. The Hokies have nine defensive starters back from that team, and they will be extremely motivated to shut down this Tigers' offense, which they are obviously very familiar with.
The Hokies can build off of their 41-20 win over Duke last weekend. They could not have started any worse, falling behind 7-20 to the underrated Blue Devils by the end of the 1st quarter. However, they would reel off 34 unanswered points the rest of the way while not allowing Duke to score a single point over the final three quarters. For three quarters, this team finally played up to its potential.
I believe Clemson is one of the most overrated teams in the country as it has played a very weak schedule thus far. The only game it wasn't favor in it lost at Florida State 37-49. This will be the second-toughest game the Tigers have faced all season, and they should not be favored by nine points against a hungry, talented team Saturday.
This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CLEMSON) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
|10-19-12||San Francisco Giants +148 v. St. Louis Cardinals||5-0||Win||148||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* Giants/Cardinals NLCS Game 5 No-Brainer on San Francisco +148
The San Francisco Giants are showing great value in Game 5 of this series in a must-win situation tonight. Trailing 3-1, the Giants know they just need this one game to send the series back to San Francisco, and I believe they get it.
Remember, the Giants fell down 0-2 to Cincinnati went on the road to win three straight games last series. This is a resilient bunch, and one that is not going to give in despite the situation, knowing that it has already been here before.
I actually believe that San Francisco has the edge on the mound, thus it should not be an underdog. Barry Zito is 15-8 with a 4.19 ERA on the season. He beat Lancy Lynn and the Cardinals in his lone start against them on August 7th this season, giving up just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 victory at St. Louis.
Lynn has struggled in his last two starts. He has posted an 8.00 ERA while allowing eight earned runs over nine innings of work. Lynn is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco, giving up 13 earned runs over 15 innings.
The Giants are 7-0 in Zito's last 7 starts as an underdog. San Francisco is 6-0 in Zito's last 6 road starts. The Giants are 9-0 in Zito's last 9 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. San Francisco is 5-0 in Zito's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing San Francisco. Take the Giants in Game 5.
|10-19-12||Connecticut v. Syracuse -4||Top||10-40||Win||100||104 h 54 m||Show|
20* UConn/Syracuse Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -4
The Syracuse Orange should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the UConn Huskies. Syracuse is arguably the best 2-4 team in the entire country to this point. It has simply beaten itself time and time again this season, but now has a chance to get back on track at home here tonight.
Despite being 2-4, the Orange have actually outgained five of their first six opponents, but they have lost the turnover battle which has cost them. They outgained Rutgers in a 15-23 loss, Minnesota in a 10-17 loss, Northwestern in a 41-42 loss, and even USC in a 29-42 loss. This team is certainly battle-tested and better than its record.
UConn is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It just hasn't been the same since losing head coach Randy Edsall to Maryland. The Huskies are 3-4 on the season with their only wins coming against UMass, Buffalo and Maryland. They are coming off a 14-17 home loss to Temple last week.
Syracuse will be highly motivated to put an end to its 5-game losing streak in this series. It is favored for a reason here tonight as oddsmakers realize that the Orange are the superior team in 2012 despite their record. They rank 39th in the country in total offense (445.5 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (335.5 yards/game) despite playing a pretty tough schedule.
The Orange are 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. UConn is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Bet Syracuse Friday.
|10-18-12||Oregon v. Arizona State +10||43-21||Loss||-113||81 h 55 m||Show|
15* Oregon/ASU ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Arizona State +10
The Arizona State Sun Devils are one of the most underrated teams in the country. I went against them last week against Colorado as a 23-point favorite, and I'll admit it was the wrong move as they dominated that contest on the road 51-17. I'm not going to make the same mistake again.
Oregon is one of the most overrated teams in the country because it has not played anyone. The Ducks have yet to play a true road games, and their six opponents have been Arkansas State, Fresno State, Tennessee Tech, Arizona, Washington State and Washington. This will be their first true road game, and by far their toughest test of the season.
ASU head coach Todd Graham has these players and these fans believing. He is one of the most underrated coaches in the land, and he turned Tulsa into a power before leaving there. ASU has opened 5-1 with its only loss coming at Missouri. It has played a tougher schedule, which includes a 27-17 road win at Cal, and a 37-7 home victory over Utah.
In fact, the Sun Devils have simply been rolling at home this year. They are 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents 48.3 to 9.0, and outgaining them 525.3 to 259.3. This team ranks 24th in the country in total offense (479.0 yards/game) and 8th in total defense (272.7 yards/game). Oregon is a mediocre 43rd in total defense (359.8 yards/game) despite its cupcake schedule.
The Sun Devils are 13-6-3 ATS in their last 22 conference games. ASU is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 home games. The Sun Devils are 20-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Arizona State Thursday.
|10-18-12||Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7||Top||6-13||Push||0||24 h 34 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7
The San Francisco 49ers will be highly motivated when they hit the field Thursday. They want to erase the sour tastes out of their mouth from a 3-26 loss to the New York Giants over the weekend. That was the worst they could have possibly played, and they are ready to make up for it in a big way.
The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most overrated teams in the league at this point of the season due to their fortune at home. They are 3-0 at home this season, and shouldn't have beat the Packers or the Patriots. After topping New England last week on a miracle in the closing minutes, the Seahawks are in a big letdown spot here tonight.
Seattle has gone 1-2 on the road this season with losses at Arizona and St. Louis. If it couldn't beat the Cardinals or the Rams away from home, it stands no chance against one of the best teams in the league in the 49ers. This one has blowout written all over it folks.
San Francisco's numbers prove that it is arguably the best team in the NFL. It ranks 1st in total defense (275.8 yards/game) and 7th in total offense (386.7 yards/game). Seattle ranks a woeful 29th in total offense (300.7 yards/game), and it likely won't score more than 10 points against this top-ranked 49ers' defense.
San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. They are beating opponents 22.6 to 10.7 in this spot, or by an average of 11.9 points/game. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West opponents. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|10-18-12||New York Yankees -110 v. Detroit Tigers||1-8||Loss||-110||16 h 5 m||Show|
15* Yankees/Tigers ALCS Game 4 No-Doubt Rout on New York -110
It's do or die for the New York Yankees in Game 4 today after falling behind 0-3 in this series to the Detroit Tigers. They wouldn't want anybody other than C.C. Sabathia on the mound in this spot, and that's precisely what they'll get Thursday.
Sabathia gets the ball as he looks to build off his recent dominance. The left-hander is 17-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 30 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in his last three. In two starts against Baltimore this postseason, Sabathia allowed only three earned runs over 17 2/3 innings.
Max Scherzer has been pretty solid of late as well, but he's no Sabathia. The right-hander is 16-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 33 starts this season. He is only averaging 5.8 innings/start, while Sabathia averages 7.3/start. I look for the Yankees to get into Detroit's bullpen early, which will be a huge advantage for them.
Sabathia went 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against Detroit this season. Scherzer faced New York once this year, allowing three earned runs and 14 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 2-6 loss. Sabathia is 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 13 postseason appearances since joining the Yankees in 2009. Bet New York in Game 4 Thursday.
|10-17-12||San Francisco Giants +117 v. St. Louis Cardinals||Top||1-3||Loss||-100||4 h 27 m||Show|
20* Giants/Cardinals Game 3 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +117
The San Francisco Giants should not be an underdog in Game 3 of this series with the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the better starter on the mound in Matt Cain, and I look for him to shut down this St. Louis line-up while outdueling Kyle Lohse.
Cain is 17-6 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 34 starts this season, striking out 202 batters in 230 innings. Lohse is having a career year, but I do not believe he is a better starter than Cain. Lohse has just 154 strikeouts in 223 2/3 innings.
The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. San Francisco is 5-0 in it last 5 playoff road games. The Giants are 7-0 in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. San Francisco is 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 10-1 in Cain's last 11 starts as a road underdog. These five trends combine for a 32-1 (97%) system backing San Francisco. Bet the Giants in Game 3 Wednesday.
|10-16-12||Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5 v. North Texas||Top||23-30||Loss||-113||49 h 39 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They are one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt for good reason, and they're off to a great start in doing so this season.
Lafayette is 4-1 on the season, including 2-0 in Sun Belt play with a 48-20 home win over Florida International, and a 37-24 road win at Troy. Its only loss came on the road against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and its four wins have all come by double-digits.
North Texas is just 2-4 this season with its only wins coming against Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic. The Mean Green also played Troy, losing at home to the Trojans 7-14. So that's a common opponent between these teams. Lafayette won by 13 at Troy, while North Texas lost by 7 to Troy at home. That games shows how much better the Rajin' Cajuns are than the Mean Green.
Lafayette beat North Texas 30-10 at home last season. With 13 starters back from that team, including nine on offense, I like they chances of pulling off a similar blowout again in 2012. Lafayette has now won five straight meetings in this series.
Lafayette ranks 39th in the country in rushing offense (190.4 yards/game) and 19th in run defense (107.2 yards/game). That makes this an excellent match-up for them because North Texas' strength is their rushing offense (175.2 yards/game), which ranks 50th. Their weakness is a run defense (176.5 yards/game) that ranks 78th. Lafayette's biggest weakness is their pass defense, but the Mean Green only rank 85th in passing offense (206.7 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against a home team (NORTH TEXAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Mean Green are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Louisiana-Lafayette is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games. The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
Lafayette is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Rajin' Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Lafayette is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system that has not lost in three years. Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.
|10-16-12||New York Yankees +170 v. Detroit Tigers||1-2||Loss||-100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* Yankees/Tigers ALCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on New York +170
It's now or never for the New York Yankees after falling down 0-2 in this series with the Detroit Tigers. Game 3 is a must-win for them, and I'll back the Yankees at an excellent price tonight given the situation.
Justin Verlander has come up big in big games for the Tigers, but this isn't exactly a huge game considering they have a 2-0 cushion. I don't expect him to be as sharp as he was against Oakland in Game 5 last Thursday. Plus, he pitched a complete game in that contest and may be a bit fatigued coming in.
Phil Hughes has pitched very well after a slow start this season. He's 16-13 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 33 starts this season. He has to have a lot of confidence coming in after giving up just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight batters in his first postseason start against Baltimore this year.
Hughes will also be confident knowing he already beat Verlander this season. These two faced off in Detroit on June 3rd. Hughes pitched a complete game while allowing only one earned run and seven base runners to earn the win in a 5-1 Yankees' victory. Verlander gave up five runs, 13 base runners and two homers over 6 1/3 innings to take the loss.
The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. New York is 22-7 in Hughes' last 29 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 games following a loss. The Tigers are 2-6 in Verlander's last 8 starts vs. Yankees. Take New York in Game 3 Tuesday.
|10-15-12||Denver Broncos +1 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||35-24||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +1
After opening 2-3 this season, this is a very important game for the Denver Broncos tonight. They need it more than the 3-2 San Diego Chargers as they do not want to fall two games behind their division rivals.
I believe Denver is the better team this season. It has been dealt an absolutely brutal schedule with the likes of the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Raiders and Patriots. In my opinion, it's the toughest schedule that any team has faced thus far. As a result, the Broncos are battle-tested.
Despite playing such a tough schedule, the Broncos rank 6th in the NFL in total offense (390.0 yards/game) and 13th in total defense (335.2 yards/game). They have been in every game they've played with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. The Chargers are just 24th in total offense (334.8 yards/game) despite playing a soft schedule.
The Chargers don't have a good win yet. Their three victories have come against the Raiders, Chiefs and Titans, three teams with a combined 4-13 record. They were handled in their two games against the Falcons and Saints.
The road team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series over the past three seasons. As you can see, home-field advantage means nothing when these teams get together.
This play falls into a system that is 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN DIEGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|10-15-12||St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -111||1-7||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* Cards/Giants NLCS Game 2 No-Brainer on San Francisco -111
After losing Game 1 of this series, I fully expect the San Francisco Giants to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight. They are 0-3 at home in the postseason, and there's no question they are going to be highly motivated to win in front of their home fans.
I love their chances of doing just that with the underrated Ryan Vogelsong on the mound at this steal of a price. Vogelsong is 14-9 with a 3.33 ERA in 32 starts this season, 7-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 home starts, and 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his last three.
The right-hander has allowed just one earned run over 16 innings in his last three outings. Vogelsong is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals, yielding just one earned run over 12 innings.
Chris Carpenter is 4-12 (-15.8 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 9-2 in Vogelsong's last 11 starts as a home favorite. San Francisco is 14-5 in its last 19 games following a loss. Take the Giants Monday.
|10-14-12||Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. Houston Texans||Top||42-24||Win||100||122 h 25 m||Show|
25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3.5
The Green Bay Packers are way undervalued right now after their 2-3 start. This team is still every bit as good as it was a year ago when it went 15-1, but so far it just hasn't been able to find a way to win close games. As a result, they are going under the radar, which has provided us with some excellent line value here.
The Houston Texans are way overvalued after their 5-0 start. Sure, I picked the Texans to win the Super Bowl this season, but I know when to fade them and this is certainly the week to do so. Houston has benefited from an easy schedule that has featured ZERO teams that have a winning record in the Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Titans and Jets. They are now without 2011 Defensive MVP Brian Cushing for the rest of the season, which is a huge loss.
Green Bay has played a much tougher schedule thus far as it has played only one team that is below .500 heading into Week 6. That was the New Orleans Saints, who are obviously much better than their record would indicate. Two of their three losses have come by three points or less, and the other came against San Francisco, which is the best team in the NFC in my opinion.
After falling to 2-3 on the season, the Packers are looking at this game as a must-win. They will want this game more than the Texans, who can afford a loss right now after their perfect start. I believe the Packers go out and get a this signature win, which will get them right back on track going forward.
This play falls into a system that is 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (GREEN BAY) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a ATS loss. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Mike McCarthy is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of Green Bay. He has never lost in this situation, and I expect him to stay undefeated in this spot tonight. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|10-14-12||New England Patriots -3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||23-24||Loss||-102||118 h 59 m||Show|
15* Pats/Seahawks NFL Sunday No-Brainer on New England -3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers Sunday against one of the best teams in the league. Seattle is 2-0 at home this season, but they should really be 1-1 as they lost to the Green Bay Packers 7-12 but got bailed out by a fluke call from the replacement officials on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
Seattle gets put in its place Sunday against a superior team in the New England Patriots. New England is somewhat under the radar due to their 1-2 start that featured two losses by a combined three points. It has responded nicely since, thumping Buffalo on the road 52-28, then topping Denver 31-21 at home last week.
Quietly, the Patriots have gone a very profitable 4-1 ATS as they just continue to cover spreads at an alarming rate. Those two early losses have this team undervalued right now because I believe they are every bit as good as they were a year ago when they made the Super Bowl, and maybe even better despite the record.
The Patriots are as explosive as ever offensively as they rank 1st in the league in total offense (439.4 yards/game) while scoring 33.0 points/game. What's most impressive is that they have found a running game to compliment Brady. New England ranks 3rd in the league in rushing (165.4 yards/game). The stop unit is improved as well as it ranks 19th in total defense (374.4 yards/game) while giving up a respectable 22.6 points/game.
Seattle is not as good as its 3-2 record. The defense is legit, but the offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Tom Brady and company. The Seahawks rank just 27th in the league in total offense (287.2 yards/game) while scoring a mere 17.2 points/game. I look for the Patriots to go no-huddle offensively, which will cause confusion and lead to success against Seattle's defense.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.
The Patriots are 24-6 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992. New England is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 road games. The Seahawks are 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot 38.0 to 15.0, or by an average of 23.0 points/game. New England is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons, winning 38.0 to 23.1 in this spot, or by an average of 14.9 points/game. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|10-14-12||St. Louis Rams v. Miami Dolphins -3||Top||14-17||Push||0||115 h 58 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
The Miami Dolphins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this year. They are just 2-3 on the season, but they could easily be 4-1 right now. They have two overtime losses to the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals in games they really should have won. Their other loss came to the 5-0 Houston Texans in a game that was tied 3-3 until three turnovers over the final two minutes of the first half turned into 21 Houston points.
I just really like what I see from this Miami team on both sides of the ball. They rank 13th in the league in total offense (373.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 135.6 yards/game on the ground and 237.8 yards/game through the air. Ryan Tannehill is the real deal and the QB of the future for this team.
Miami also ranks a respectable 14th in total defense (343.2 yards/game), including 1st against the run (61.4 yards/game). Their weakness is against the pass, but the St. Louis Rams do not have a good passing attack. St. Louis ranks 29th in total offense (278.2 yards/game), including 30th in passing offense (183.4 yards/game).
The Rams are simply overvalued at this point of the season after their 3-2 start. They are getting outgained by 57.2 yards/game this season, which is the sign of a 2-3 or 1-4 team rather than one with a winning record.
St. Louis is now without Danny Amendola to a collarbone injury, which is huge considering he's by far Sam Bradford's favorite target. Amendola has 32 receptions for 395 yards this season, and the No. 2 option is Brandon Gibson with only 13 receptions for 184 yards through five games. Bradford is going to miss Amendola greatly.
The Rams are 0-2 on the road this season as all of their wins have come at home. They are getting outscored 14.5 to 25.0 on the road, or by an average of 10.5 points/game to the likes of Detroit and Chicago.
This play falls into a system that is 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against any team (ST LOUIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season.
The Dolphins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. in its last 9 a team with a winning record. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-13-12||Tennessee v. Mississippi State -2.5||31-41||Win||100||58 h 41 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Mississippi State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Mississippi State -2.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a much better team than they are getting credit for with this line set by oddsmakers Saturday. They should be a heavier favorite against the Tennessee Volunteers.
At 5-0 and ranked No. 19 in the country, this is easily the best team that head coach Dan Mullen has had in his time at Mississippi State. I believe they should be ranked even higher, but after another win Saturday they'll move up quite a bit. They are highly motivated to put an end to their 6-game losing streak to the Vols in this series.
Tennessee is just 3-2 on the season, and it's easy to see that this team isn't ready to take the next step under head coach Derek Dooley. The Vols had their chances to prove they were for real, but they lost 20-37 at home to Florida, and 44-51 on the road to Georgia. Their three wins have come against Akron, Georgia State and NC State, which is unimpressive to say the least.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 38.0 to 9.7 on average. That includes a 28-10 win over Auburn as only a 3-point favorite. I like the match-up here as Tennessee has a great passing game, but Mississippi State counters that with the 30th ranked pass defense (199.6 yards/game) in the country.
I also like the match-up for Mississippi State on offense. They have a balanced attack that is averaging 179.0 yards on the ground and 225.6 through the air. They'll be up against a Tennessee team that ranks just 83rd in the country in total defense (425.8 yards/game), giving up 186.2 yards on the ground and 239.6 through the air.
The Volunteers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS win. The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 conference games. These five trends combine for a 25-2 system backing the Bulldogs. Roll with Mississippi State Saturday.
|10-13-12||Texas A&M -7.5 v. Louisiana Tech||59-57||Loss||-103||58 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -7.5
The Texas A&M Aggies are the superior team in this contest with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. While Texas A&M is ranked No. 22 in the country and LA Tech is No. 23, these teams couldn't be further apart talent-wise, and that will show on the field Saturday.
Texas A&M really should be 5-0 as its only loss came by three points against Florida 17-20 after blowing a 17-10 halftime lead. The Aggies have responded nicely since that loss, winning four straight, including three in a row by 45 or more points.
Texas A&M is coming off a nice 30-27 road win at Ole Miss in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Aggies overcame six turnovers while gaining 481 yards of total offense in the win. Without those turnovers, it would have been a lot more lopsided results. I look for the Aggies to focus on taking care of the football this week.
Louisiana Tech is a solid team at 5-0 this season, but it really hasn't played anybody near the caliber of Texas A&M. Its five wins have come against Houston, Rice, Illinois, Virginia and UNLV. While the Bulldogs have been explosive offensively, they have been atrocious defensively against a soft schedule, and I look for the Aggies to exploit that.
The Aggies rank 12th in the country in total offense (516.8 yards/game) while scoring 44.6 points/game. They'll be up against a Louisiana Tech defense that ranks 116th in the country (531.0 yards/game) while giving up 35.8 points/game.
Texas A&M actually has a solid defense, which will be be the difference in this contest. The Aggies rank 43rd in the FBS in total defense (363.6 yards/game) while allowing just 14.8 points/game.
Texas A&M is 10-0 all-time against Louisiana Tech, winning by an average score of 42-12. I look for this program dominance to continue as the Bulldogs are simply overmatched in this one talent-wise. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
|10-13-12||South Carolina v. LSU -2.5||Top||21-23||Loss||-113||57 h 42 m||Show|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -2.5
Public perception is way too high on the South Carolina Gamecocks right now after their huge home win over Georgia last Saturday. As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line much lower than it should be.
Public perception is down on LSU right now due to its road loss at Florida. I really don't believe that was that bad of a loss as the Gators are much better than they get credit for. LSU returns home Saturday with all of their goals still ahead of them as they control their own destiny in getting back to the SEC title game if they win out.
South Carolina is a quality team with a great defense, but it really has not been tested on the road. It has road wins over Vanderbilt (17-13) and Kentucky (38-17), which are two of the worst teams in the SEC. It will be tested in Baton Rouge Saturday against an amped up LSU team looking to take out its frustration on the Gamecocks.
This play falls into a system that is 56-23 (70.9%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season.
LSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 after playing a game where 20 total points or less were scored. It is winning in this spot by an average of 28.7 points/game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|10-13-12||Buffalo +13.5 v. Northern Illinois||3-45||Loss||-102||52 h 11 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +13.5
The Buffalo Bulls should not be catching two touchdowns against the Northern Illinois Huskies Saturday. Buffalo is off to a 1-4 start, but this team is much better than its record would indicate, and that's why the Bulls are showing such great value here.
The Bulls have only had one bad game thus far. Three of their losses came on the road against very good teams. They lost at Georgia 23-45 as a 37.5-point underdog, at UConn 17-24 as a 16.5-point dog, and at Ohio 31-38 as a 14.5-point dog. This team has played its best football away from home.
Northern Illinois is way overvalued after five straight wins since losing to Iowa to open the season. This team has played a cake-walk schedule, beatting Tennessee-Martin, Kansas and Central Michigan at home, while also topping Army and Ball State on the road. Only two of those five wins came by more than 12 points.
Buffalo has 15 starters back from a team that lost 30-31 at home to Northern Illinois as a 14-point underdog last season. They outgained NIU 572-328 in that game, but committed five turnovers which really did them in. The Huskies only have 12 starters back from that team. There's no question that the Bulls want serious revenge from that one-point loss, and they easily could pull off this upset. Take Buffalo Saturday.
|10-13-12||Kansas State v. Iowa State +7||27-21||Win||100||49 h 40 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +7
The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the most underrated teams in the country ever since Paul Rhoads took over as head coach. They have had a knack for pulling off the upset. They beat then-No. 2 Oklahoma State 37-31 at home in overtime last year to prevent the Cowboys from playing in the National Championship.
Iowa State went on the road and handled then-No. 15 TCU 37-23 last week. I look for the Cyclones to give No. 6 Kansas State a run for its money Saturday at home. The Wildcats have been underrated for much of the season, but this team is way overvalued now that it is ranked inside the Top 10.
These are two teams that play very similar styles, which favors the home underdog. Both like to run the football and play smash mouth defense while trying to force turnovers at all times. Each relies on winning the turnover battle and not beating themselves. Both squads are very physical as well.
This is a trap game for the Wildcats as they will be looking ahead to a showdown with current No. 5 West Virginia next week. Iowa State will be focused as it wants revenge from a 23-30 loss at Kansas State last season as a 10-point underdog. The Cyclones outgained the Wildcats 368-359, but committed two more turnovers than K-State, which proved to be the difference.
Kansas State has now beaten Iowa State by a touchdown or less in four straight meetings. You can bet that the Cyclones want revenge after such a painful streak of losses to the Wildcats over the last four years. This rematch will likely be decided by a touchdown or less again, but this time in Iowa State's favor.
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|10-12-12||St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals -132||9-7||Loss||-132||10 h 21 m||Show|
15* Cards/Nationals NL No-Doubt Rout on Washington -132
After winning in walk-off fashion last night to avoid elimination with a Game 4 victory, the Washington Nationals have all of the momentum now. I look for them to win Game 5 tonight behind that momentum and the huge edge they have on the mound.
Gio Gonzalez will likely be the NL Cy Young winner this season. The left-hander is 21-8 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 33 starts this season, including 9-4 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 14 home starts. Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis. He pitched a complete game shutout in his lone home start against the Cardinals.
Adam Wainwright has just been average this year at 14-13 with a 3.88 ERA in 33 starts, including 4-7 with a 4.20 ERA in 15 road starts. He's 4-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in nine career starts against Washington.
Gonzalez is a perfect 11-0 against the money line against NL Central opponents this season. The Nationals are winning by 3.5 runs/game in this spot. Take Washington in Game 5 Friday.
|10-12-12||Navy v. Central Michigan OVER 59||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||73 h 28 m||Show|
20* Navy/Central Michigan ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59
This contest has the makings of a shootout Friday night. I look for a similar final score to the 38-37 Navy victory when these teams met last in 2010. Navy rushed for 437 yards in the win, while Central Michigan threw for 394 yards in the loss.
I fully expect Navy to be able to move the ball at will on the ground in this one. Central Michigan ranks 95th in the country in total defense (457.6 yards/game), including 111th against the run (233.2 yards/game). They are giving up 5.8 yards/carry.
Navy ranks 16th in rush offense (230.4 yards/game). Playing on a short week is a huge disadvantage for the Chippewas' defense in trying to prepare for Navy's triple-option attack. This is a defense that has given up a combined 105 points the past two weeks in losses to Northern Illinois and Toledo.
Central Michigan has been moving the ball well through the air this season as it ranks 44th in pass offense (257.2 yards/game). Ryan Radcliff has thrown for 1,286 yards and nine touchdowns to six interceptions on the season. I look for Radcliff to have a big game against a Navy defense that is allowing 67.7 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks.
The Chippewas are 10-1 to the OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 18-6-2 in Chippewas last 26 non-conference games. The OVER is 9-2 in Chippewas last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-11-12||Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's +127||6-0||Loss||-100||10 h 11 m||Show|
15* Tigers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland +127
The Oakland A's have to be the most resilient team in baseball. They swept the Rangers in three games needing all three wins to win the AL West division to close out the season. Trailing 0-2, they have battled back with two home wins, including a 4-3 walk-off victory last night after trailing 3-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th.
The A's have so much momentum now that I don't believe even Justin Verlander is going to be able to slow them down. I look for them to complete the comeback and stun the already shocked Tigers by winning Game 5 tonight.
Jarrod Parker is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He's 13-9 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 30 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 6-5 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 15 starts at the Coliseum. He has posted a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against Detroit.
There's no question that Verlander remains one of the best starters in the game after winning the Cy Young and MVP last season. However, he has been very human on the road this season, posting a 3.57 ERA in 18 starts away from home.
The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff road games. Detroit is 0-6 in Verlander's last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The A's are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Oakland. Roll with the A's Thursday.
|10-11-12||Arizona State v. Colorado +23||51-17||Loss||-110||71 h 24 m||Show|
15* ASU/Colorado ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Colorado +23
The Colorado Buffaloes should not be catching more than three touchdowns at home against the Arizona State Sun Devils Thursday. They clearly aren't off to their best start this season to say the least, but as a result, they are showing tremendous value in this spot.
The Buffaloes are just 1-4 this season, but they haven't been in the national spotlight like they are going to be tonight. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN, so these players have every reason to get up for this contest. Plus, they will be looking to revenge a 14-48 loss at Arizona State last season.
The Sun Devils are an improved team this season, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers because of their 4-1 start. Three of those four wins came at home against a weak schedule that has featured Northern Arizona, Illinois and Utah. They did win at Cal 27-17, but the Bears are down this season.
Their other road game resulted in a 20-24 loss at Missouri as the Tigers were playing without their starting quarterback, and they are down this season as well. I really can't say that the Sun Devils even have a great win on their resume considering they were favored in four of those five games.
Arizona State is 1-9 ATS in road games off a double-digit road win since 1992. It is losing in this spot by an average of 14.6 points/game. The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Take Colorado Thursday.
|10-11-12||Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||23-26||Loss||-110||71 h 49 m||Show|
20* NFL Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers -5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the clear choice Thursday when they visit the Tennessee Titans, who I believe are the worst team in the league. The Titans certainly aren't going to get their problems fixed on a short week.
Pittsburgh fixed its problems thanks to a bye in Week 4 after a 1-2 start. It beat the Eagles 16-14 last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They held the Eagles to just 246 total yards while forcing two turnovers in the win. This short week won't affect the Steelers one bit since they had a bye the previous week.
Pittsburgh got James Harrison and Troy Polamalu back on defense last week. It had been playing without these two for most of the season. I know Palamalu isn't expected to play Thursday, but the Steelers still rank 5th in the NFL in total defense (280.0 yards/game). They have finished in the Top 5 in total defense for five straight years, including No. 1 three times.
The offense has been sharp as well, averaging 347.7 yards/game this season. They have been especially effective through the air, ranking 11th in the NFL in passing offense (265.0 yards/game). Rashard Mendenhall made his season debut last week, rushing for 81 yards as he returned from an ACL injury. His return will allow the Steelers to be much more effective on the ground going forward.
Tennessee is simply atrocious, opening 1-4 while getting outscored 17.6 to 36.2 in the process, or by an average of 18.6 points/game. It ranks just 26th in total offense (305.0 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (423.8 yards/game). Opponents are rushing for 144.2 yards/game, and opposing quarterbacks are completing 74.6% of their passes for an average of 280 yards/game.
It's safe to say that Roethlisberger, Mendenhall and company are going to have their way with this Tennessee defense. Also, the Titans are going to be without starting quarterback Jake Locker (shoulder) for a second straight week. Backup Matt Hasselbeck, who has already thrown three interceptions in 1.5 games in Locker's place, stands no chance against this Steelers' defense.
The Titans are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tennessee is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Tennessee is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. AFC foes. These four trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Thursday.
|10-10-12||Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's -104||Top||3-4||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
20* Tigers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland -104
The Oakland A's should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the Detroit Tigers in Game 4. They avoided the sweep with a 2-0 victory last night, and this team continues to be resilient. Their only shot to win the AL West was to sweep the Rangers in three games to close out the season, and they did just that. So this team believes they can do the same thing against the Tigers.
Max Scherzer is one of the most overrated starters in baseball. The right-hander is 16-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.274 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 9-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 18 road starts.
A.J. Griffin is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He's 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in eight home starts.
The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. The A's are 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 6-0 in Griffin's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. These three trends make for a 15-0 system backing the A's. Bet Oakland Wednesday.