|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-19-13||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards OVER 205||100-104||Loss||-106||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 205
The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. I look for an absolute shootout for four quarters as the final combined score of this one sails way OVER the number.
Minnesota ranks 1st in the league in pace at 102.6 possessions per game. It is also 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Washington likes to play at a fast tempo as well, making for the perfect storm. The Wizards rank 12th in the league in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.
The Timberwolves are putting up 108.5 points per game on the season. Washington has been solid offensively as well, averaging 100.0 points per game. Neither team has played well on the other end. The Timberwolves are giving up 100.2 points per game, while the Wizards are yielding 104.6 points per contest.
Washington is 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Washington is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-18-13||Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers -8.5||106-102||Loss||-102||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5
The Los Angeles Clippers want revenge in a big way tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Grizzlies last season, but that was largely aided by an injury to Blake Griffin. It's payback time tonight ladies and gents.
The Clippers have looked very sharp of late, winning seven of their last nine games overall while going 6-3 ATS in the process. Offensively, they cannot be stopped, averaging 110.0 points per game on 48.6% shooting. The Clippers are 5-0 at home this year, putting up a ridiculous 118.6 points per game.
Memphis is clearly down this season, opening 5-5 while continuing to struggle offensively. It is averaging just 94.3 points per game overall, including 91.6 on the road where it is 2-3 on the year. This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies to boot. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Grizzlies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team has won five of the past six meetings with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Roll with the Clippers Monday.
|11-18-13||Norfolk State v. East Carolina -1.5||74-76||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -1.5
East Carolina is showing tremendous value tonight as only a 1.5-point favorite over Norfolk State. This is the NIT Tip Off played at Cameron Indoor Stadium, which is the home of the Duke Blue Devils. With a chance to play Duke next, ECU will certainly want to take care of business tonight to take advantage of that opportunity.
I really like what I've seen from ECU thus far en route to a 3-0 start. It has posted blowout home victories over NC Wesleyan (97-51) and Chowan (95-45), as well as an impressive road win at UNC-Greensboro (85-84). It is scoring 92.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting. It is also hitting 71.2% of its free throws, and outrebounding opponents 47-34 on average. It is holding opponents to 60.0 points on 35.3% shooting.
Norfolk State has been far less impressive en route to a 2-1 start. Its two wins have both come at home against the likes of Newberry (115-95) and Virginia Union (92-84). It lost in its lone road game to Texas Southern (83-95). It is allowing a ridiculous 91.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting. I'll gladly take the better defensive team in this one.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NORFOLK ST) - after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1997. This is an ECU team that went 23-12 last season and one that is obviously a quality bunch again in 2013. Bet East Carolina Monday.
|11-18-13||Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz +9||Top||98-87||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +9
This is a home-and-home situation for the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. These teams just played at Golden State Saturday night with the Warriors coming away with a 102-88 home victory. I look for the Jazz to return the favor two nights later and to easily stay within this 9-point spread with an excellent chance to pull off the upset.
Utah has been playing much better of late after a horrendous start. It has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, beating New Orleans 111-105 as a 2.5-point home underdog in the process. It also stayed within its 10-point spread against San Antonio in a 9-point loss.
There's no question that the Jazz are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one. I normally look to back the team that lost the first game in a home-and-home situation, especially if their loss was on the road in the first game. The oddsmakers giving us 9 points to back a team in revenge mode in this situation is simply a gift.
Utah has won four of its last six meetings with Golden State. The Warriors are just 2-3 on the road this season after going 19-22 on the road last year. Golden State is 3-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three seasons. Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Jazz Monday.
|11-18-13||New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers||Top||20-24||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England +3
Give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a team, and the Patriots are almost certainly going to be ready for everything Carolina has to offer. That will be the case Monday as the Patriots come off a bye following their most dominant performance of the season. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 at home last time out on November 3 behind a whopping 610 yards of total offense.
|11-18-13||The Citadel +28 v. Tennessee||60-86||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on The Citadel +28
Tennessee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. It has opened 1-1 with its only win coming against lowly USC Upstate at home by a final of 74-65. I fully expect this game to be much closer than this 28-point spread as well as The Citadel is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.
The Citadel returned four starters from last season, and it is off to a 2-2 start with both of its losses coming on the road by 11 and 15 points, respectively. It has three studs in Matt Van Scyoc (18.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 92.9% free throws), Brian White (15.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 81.2% free throws) and Ashton Moore (13.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 78.6% free throws).
Marshall Harris III (9.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 100% free throws) has been a solid contributor as well. With the importance of free throws being at a premium this season, I really like backing teams like The Citadel, which is shooting 75.9% from the charity stripe as a team. It is also only allowing 40.2% shooting to opponents and putting them on the free throw line an average of 19 times per game, so it is sound defensively.
Tennessee only brings back one starters from last season. It certainly has not been impressive in opening 1-1. It is shooting just 38.6% from the field while allowing opponents to shoot 46.8%. The Volunteers have struggled at the free throw line as well, making just 65.5% of their attempts. This team is clearly overrated in the early going, and that was evident in a 74-65 win over USC Upstate.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win. The Citadel is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Take The Citadel Monday.
|11-17-13||Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. Denver Broncos||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City +8
Coming off their bye week, the Chiefs have had two full weeks to prepare for Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. That will be a huge advantage heading into this divisional showdown with first place in the AFC West on the line. That's especially the case when you consider that Andy Reid is 13-1 straight up off a bye as a head coach.
Adding to Denver's disadvantage is the fact that Peyton Manning is banged up. He was noticeably limping at the end of their 28-20 win at San Diego last week, and it
|11-17-13||Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 189.5||Top||97-86||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 189.5
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings both play at extremely slow paces. As a result, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle when these teams square off Sunday.
Memphis ranks 27th in the league in pace at 94.5 possessions per game. Sacramento is tied with Memphis for 27th, also averaging 94.5 possessions per contest.
Making matters worse for both teams is that neither has been efficient offensively this year. Sacramento is 20th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Memphis is even worse, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER off a road win over the last two years. The UNDER is 17-8 in Grizzlies last 25 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Kings last 27 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game.
|11-17-13||San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints -3||Top||20-23||Push||0||63 h 31 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Saints Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -3
The Saints have been simply unstoppable at home this season. They are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread inside the Superdome with their smallest margin of victory coming by six points. They are scoring 35.2 points and giving up 15.0 points at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game. They certainly will be wanting revenge on the 49ers, who have beaten them each of the past two seasons.
Looking at the numbers, it
|11-17-13||Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Chicago Bears||20-23||Push||0||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore Ravens +3
The Baltimore Ravens have simply been unlucky in close games this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-5 record to this point. They have lost four times by six or fewer points, including three times by a field goal or less. Only twice in their nine games this year have they been beaten by more than a field goal. That trend right there shows you that there is some nice value in snagging the Ravens at +3 in this contest.
Baltimore kept its playoff and division title hopes alive last week with a huge 20-17 victory over Cincinnati. It led 17-0 and nearly blew the game as the Bengals tied it on a hail mary with no time left to force overtime. However, the Ravens would get the winning field goal in the extra session, and that
|11-17-13||Cleveland Browns +6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||20-41||Loss||-110||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the most improved teams in the league in 2013. Despite going through three different quarterbacks, they have a chance to pull within a half-game of Cincinnati for first place in the AFC North with a win Sunday.
Jason Campbell has played very well as a starter in his last two games. He threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-23 loss at Kansas City. Campbell threw for 262 yards and three scores in a 24-18 home win over Baltimore last time out on November 3.
As you can see, the Browns are coming off their bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for the Bengals. That will be a huge advantage heading into this one.
After already beating Cincinnati 17-6 at home on September 29 in their first meeting of the season, they
|11-17-13||Washington Redskins +4.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles||16-24||Loss||-110||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Washington Redskins +4.5
This is clearly a must-win game for Washington, which cannot afford another loss if it wants to win back-to-back NFC East Titles. The good news is that the NFC East is down this season, with both Dallas and Philadelphia tied for first place with .500 records.
This is where Washington made its run last season, winning each of its final seven games after starting with an identical 3-6 record to finish 10-6. Having that memory in the back of their minds will serve the Redskins well going forward.
Washington will have a big edge in rest heading into this one. It last played on Thursday, November 7, losing 27-34 at Minnesota despite dominating that football game. In fact, the Redskins outgained the Vikings 433-307 but found a way to lose.
Offense certainly hasn
|11-16-13||Wyoming +24 v. Boise State||7-48||Loss||-110||51 h 58 m||Show|
15* Wyoming/Boise State ESPN 2 BAILOUT on Wyoming +24
The Boise State Broncos are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. They should not be a 23-point favorite over Wyoming. Down their starting quarterback, and certainly down from their level of play from year's past, the Broncos are way overvalued in this one.
This line is an overreaction from Boise State's 42-30 win at Colorado State last time out, coupled with Wyoming's 10-48 loss to Fresno State last game. The Broncos were actually outgained 437-626 by Colorado State, further showing that their defense is nowhere near as dominant as it has been in year's past.
Boise State is allowing 25.2 points and 437.7 yards per game this season to rank 95th in the country in total defense. It will have a hard time containing an explosive Wyoming offense that is averaging 33.6 points and 491.6 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total offense. Wyoming's ability to move the football and put points on the board will allow it to stay within this 23-point spread.
Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith is quietly having a monster season in the Mountain West. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,508 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 441 yards and three scores. Running back Shaun Wick is also having a big year, rushing for 823 yards and nine touchdowns on 6.5 per carry.
The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They have gone 3-1 against the spread in road games in 2013. They lost at Nebraska 34-37 as a 31-point underdog to open the season. They won at Air Force 56-23 as a 4-point favorite, and they only lost 44-51 at San Jose State as a 10.5-point underdog. Those three results right there show that Wyoming travels well.
Furthermore, Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is a sensational 17-4 against the spread as a road underdog as the coach of Wyoming. Wyoming is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games overall. Meanwhile, Chris Peterson is 0-6 against the number in home games after having won four or five of their last six games as the coach of Boise State. Peterson is also 0-6 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that average at least 200 rushing yards per game as the coach of Boise State.
The Broncos are 1-12 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Boise State is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. These last five trends combined for a 38-2 system backing the Cowboys. Take Wyoming Saturday.
|11-16-13||Oregon State +14 v. Arizona State||Top||17-30||Win||100||50 h 9 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +14
Off two straight losses to Stanford and USC, the Beavers will be hungry for a victory Saturday. That
|11-16-13||Tulsa v. Missouri State -4.5||93-96||Loss||-106||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5
After a 2-10 start last year with an inexperienced roster, Missouri State really rebounded to finish 11-22. Now, with four starters back, I fully expect this to be one of the most improved teams in the country.
Guard Marcus Marshall (11.5 ppg) and junior Christian Kirk (8.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are the top two returnees. After missing all of last season with a knee injury, senior forward Jamar Gulley returns. He averaged 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in 2011-12. Northern Colorado transfer Emmanuel Addo is 6'7", 220 pounds. Freshman Tyler McCullough (6'10", 230) is ready to contribute right away.
Missouri State is off to a solid start this season, picking up a 79-67 win at Old Dominion as a 1.5-point favorite. They grabbed 52 rebounds in that game and shot 72.2% from the free throw line, which will be huge with the new rules and tons of fouls being called. Gulley and Marshall led the way with 18 points apiece, while Austin Ruder added 14 points.
Tulsa is a team in rebuilding mode under second-year head coach Danny Manning. Its roster is made up of 12 of 165 players who are either freshmen or sophomores. That inexperience showed in the opener, losing 68-74 at home to Oral Roberts. The Golden Hurricane were outrebounded 28-45 in the loss. What really cost them was going 17-of-36 from the free throw line for 47.2% shooting.
Free throws could easily be the difference in this game, and I like Missouri State's chances of making them a lot more than Tulsa's. With a line of only 4.5, those free throws will be huge. The Bears are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.
|11-16-13||Alabama v. Mississippi State +25.5||20-7||Win||100||48 h 24 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Mississippi State +25.5
This is a huge letdown spot for Alabama. It is coming off arguably its biggest win of the season last Saturday in a 38-17 home victory over LSU. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was tied 17-17 in the third quarter before the Crimson Tide pulled away in the fourth.
It would be pretty easy for the Crimson Tide to overlook Mississippi State enough to fail to win by 26-plus points, which is what it would take to cover. We only have to look back to last year to find how Alabama responds after the LSU game. It beat LSU 21-17 on the road in 2012, then came back home the next week and lost to Texsa A&M 24-29 despite being a 13-point favorite.
|11-16-13||Texas Tech +28 v. Baylor||Top||34-63||Loss||-110||48 h 54 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +28
Texas Tech comes way undervalued due to its three-game losing streak. A closer look at the skid shows that the Red Raiders really had a chance to win all three games despite the final margins. They lost 30-38 at Oklahoma despite amassing 460 total yards. They committed three turnovers in that contest, which really put them in a hole that they just couldn
|11-16-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Washington Wizards UNDER 196||103-96||Loss||-110||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cavaliers/Wizards UNDER 196
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards are two of the most inept offensive teams in the league in 2013-14. They both rank right in the middle of the pack in terms of pace with Washington 12th at 99.2 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 14th with 97.1 possessions per game.
Neither team has been very efficient offensively this season. Washington ranks 20th in offensive efficiency with 99.0 points per 100 possessions, while Cleveland is a woeful 29th in offensive efficiency at 92.0 points per 100 possessions. Only Utah has been worse.
Looking at recent meetings between Washington and Cleveland, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Each of the last five meetings have seen 187 or fewer combined points with an average of 182.4 combined points/game during that span. That's nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.
The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams, and we have a combined 21-0 system backing the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-16-13||Kentucky +13 v. Vanderbilt||6-22||Loss||-115||41 h 58 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13
Vanderbilt is in a huge letdown spot Saturday. It is coming off a 34-17 win at Florida last Saturday to put an end to a 22-game losing streak to the Gators. It's going to be very hard for them to come back emotionally to get ready for face a 2-7 Kentucky team that the Commodores will certainly be overlooking.
A closer look into the box score against Florida shows that Vanderbilt was very lucky to win, and that there's no way in hell it should have scored 34 points. In fact, the Commodores were outgained 183-344 by the Gators, which would normally equate to a blowout win in Florida's favor. But the Gators turned the ball over four times and gave the Commodores several easy scores.
Backup quarterback Patton Robinette only completed 6 of 12 passes for 57 yards against the Gators, so obviously he wasn't asked to do too much as Florida gave that game away. He'll have to do much more against Kentucky this week if the Commodores are going to win, let alone cover. Starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels remains doubtful with a knee injury. Robinette is only completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 421 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions on the season.
Kentucky is highly motivated to pick up its first SEC win of the season. It has played its best football on the road this year, only losing at South Carolina 28-35 despite being a 22-point underdog, and at Mississippi State 22-28 as a 12-point dog. If it can stay within a touchdown of both of those teams, then it certainly can stay within 13 of Vanderbilt Saturday.
Last week's game against Missouri was much closer than the final score would indicate. But because the Wildcats were blown out 17-48, and the Commodores are coming off a win at Florida, this line has been inflated due to public perception. The Wildcats were only outgained 369-426 by the Tigers last week in what was a 35-17 game entering the 4th quarter. Quarterback Jalen Whitlow was solid, completing 17 of 27 passes for 225 yards in the loss. It's nice to have him back and healthy again.
The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its last game. The Commodores are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bet Kentucky Saturday.
|11-15-13||Nebraska-Omaha +13.5 v. UNLV||70-73||Win||100||19 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nebraska-Omaha +13.5
There are so many things to like about Nebraska-Omaha heading into their showdown with UNLV tonight at 10:00 EST. First and foremost, Nebraska-Omaha is in just its second season as a Division 1 team, which makes it under the radar to the general betting public. That's why there is going to be a lot of value on this team until the public starts to realize how good they really are.
Omaha managed to finish in the middle of the pack in the Summit League last year. Now, with six of their top seven scorers back from last season, this is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. Justin Simmons (16.7 ppg), John Karhoff (12.0 ppg), CJ Carter (9.7 ppg), Alex Phillips (8.2 ppg) and Marcus Tyus (6.0 ppg) are all back.
These five players have led Omaha to a 2-1 start. They went on the road and beat Northern Illinois 68-66 as a 6.5-point underdog, and then they gave a very good Iowa team from the Big Ten all they wanted and more. Omaha would lost 75-83 as a 29.5-point dog, easily covering the spread. The Mavericks came back with a 101-71 home victory over Missouri-KC on Wednesday for their second win of the year.
Carter is off to a hot start, averaging 20.7 points per game. Karhoff (11.0 ppg) and Devin Patterson (10.0 ppg) have played well, too. What's most impressive about Omaha's start is that last year's leading scorer Justin Simmons has been held to just 9.7 ppg on 28.6% shooting. This team is really going to be dangerous once he gets going.
UNLV lost so much talent from last season that it simply cannot replace. It lost three off its top four scorers, including the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft in F Anthony Bennett (16.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg). Only Khem Birch (7.2 ppg) and Bryce Dejean-Jones (10.3 ppg) are back who played significant minutes last season. Making matters worse for the Rebels is that Dejean-Jones is nursing a hamstring injury.
Dejean-Jones returned in UNLV's last game, which was an ugly 65-86 home loss to UC-Santa Barbara as an 8.5-point favorite. He was held to 1-of-5 shooting for five points in 16 minutes of action. It was clear that he wasn't healthy, and without him at full strength, the Rebels are in a world of hurt going forward.
With all of the fouls that are being called this season due to the rule changes, free throw shooting becomes a huge factor on which team is going to cover the spread. Omaha is averaging 22-of-28 for 80.7% from the charity stripe in 2013. UNLV is averaging 12-of-24 for 50% from the free throw line this year. As you can see, the Mavericks will have a big edge in free throws in this one.
Plays on an underdog (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) - after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 252-161 (61%) ATS since 1997. The Rebels are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games overall, including 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Take Nebraska-Omaha Friday.
|11-15-13||Washington +3 v. UCLA||Top||31-41||Loss||-105||21 h 45 m||Show|
20* Washington/UCLA ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +3
Looking at the numbers, it
|11-15-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 194||109-96||Loss||-105||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 194
Both Portland and Boston play at slower paces than the average NBA team. Portland ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. Boston ranks 18th in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.
I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace, which would be nothing new to when these teams have gotten together recently. Each of the last four meetings between the Blazers and Celtics have seen 190 or fewer combined points.
In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 194 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 194, which dates back to the 2008 season.
Boston is 13-3 to the UNDER In home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Celtics last eight games following a loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-15-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 190||Top||86-80||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bobcats/Cavaliers UNDER 190
The Charlotte Bobcats and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their second meetings of the season, with their first resulting in a 90-84 home win by Charlotte for 174 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair in the rematch.
Charlotte ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging just 95.0 possessions per game. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack at 15th, averaging 97.6 possessions per game.
Not only are both offenses playing at slow paces, but they are two of the least-efficient units in the NBA as well. Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.7, while Cleveland is 29th at 92.7. These numbers represent the amount of points each team scores per 100 possessions.
Mike Browns is 15-4 to the UNDER versus terrible 3 point shooting teams who make less than 30% of their attempts in all games he had coached. The UNDER is 59-26-2 in Bobcats last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last seven Friday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-14-13||North Dakota State v. St Mary's CA -6||65-78||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
15* NDSU/Saint Mary's CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Saint Mary's -6
Saint Mary's came into the season way undervalued due to the loss of leading scorer Mathew Dellavedova. But this is a team that went 28-7 last year and returned plenty of talent to make up for his loss.
That has been evident en route to a 2-0 start with an 83-70 victory over a very good Louisiana Tech team that went 27-7 last year, and an 85-63 triumph against an Akron team that went 26-7 a year ago. That's the same Akron team that beat North Dakota State 68-53 last season.
The Gaels are playing tremendous team basketball with four players averaging 10.0 or more points per game. Brad Waldow is averaging 22.0 points and 5.0 rebounds, and he and Stephen Holt (16.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5.5 rpg) are the top two returnees from last year. Both are off to tremendous starts. James Walker III (12.0 ppg) and Beau Levesque (10.0 ppg) have also made key contributions thus far.
One big x-factor in this game is how well Saint Mary's has shot free throws through the first two games. It is averaging 27 makes in 32 attempts per game for a free throw percentage of 85.4%. That is going to be huge all season for the Gaels considering how many more fouls the refs are calling this year than in the past. Meanwhile, North Dakota State went 12-of-21 (57.1%) from the charity stripe in its opening win over Viterbo.
Saint Mary's is a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win this this spot 73.7 to 56.2, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. Somehow, the Gaels are undervalued in the early going and I'll take advantage of it. Bet Saint Mary's Thursday.
|11-14-13||Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Golden State Warriors||115-116||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +5
While the Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to the Clippers last night, I don't look for that to be much of a factor in this one. That's because the Thunder had two days off before last night's game, so they should still be fresh and ready to go. They'll also be motivated following just their second loss of the season.
Golden State is really starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers. It should not be a 5-point favorite in this match-up against what I feel is a better all-around team in Oklahoma City. The only good win the Warriors have this season came at Minnesota, but their other four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Kings, 76ers and Pistons.
Oklahoma City has simply owned Golden State in recent meetings. The Thunder have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Warriors with their only loss coming by exactly 5 points. There is clearly some value here with the Thunder as a 5-point underdog given the recent history. Plus, I expect this one to go right down to the wire, so I'd much rather take the points than give them up.
Scott Brooks is a sensational 107-62 ATS after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Oklahoma City. Golden State is 2-13 ATS in home games after leading its previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days rest. Roll with Oklahoma City Thursday.
|11-14-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3||Top||30-27||Push||0||67 h 51 m||Show|
20* Colts/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +3
This is a huge game for Tennessee, which trails Indianapolis by two games for the AFC South lead. If it wants any chance to make the playoffs, it simply has to have this game Thursday. That
|11-14-13||Georgia Tech v. Clemson -10.5||31-55||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* GA Tech/Clemson ACC Thursday No-Brainer on Clemson -10.5
The Clemson Tigers have rebounded nicely from their lone loss of the season to Florida State. They have bounced back with back-to-back blowout road victories over Maryland (40-27) and Virginia (59-10). They are still playing for a shot at a BCS game, and if they win out, they
|11-13-13||Phoenix Suns +6.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||89-90||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6.5
The Phoenix Suns have been the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. They have opened 5-2 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread through their first seven games of the season. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as a nice-sized underdog at Portland tonight.
When you look the two losses that Phoenix has suffered this season, it's easy to see that it is legit. It lost at Oklahoma City 96-103 as a 12.5-point underdog, and at San Antonio 96-99 as a 13-point dog. It has won its other five games, including a 104-91 triumph over Portland to open the season.
This is a very balanced Phoenix team that features eight players who are averaging 22 or more minutes per game. Eric Bledsoe has been one of the most valuable players in the league to this point, averaging 20.9 points, 7.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He is running the show and proving that he was worth the big offseason trade.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Take the Suns Wednesday.
|11-13-13||Pepperdine -1 v. UC Riverside||69-66||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine -1
I fully expect Pepperdine to be improved this season with three starters back, including sophomore forward Stacy Davis. He averaged 11.2 points and 7.3 rebounds last year and was voted WCC Newcomer of the Year.
Davis poured in 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting to lead Pepperdine to an 81-68 win over San Diego Christion in their opener. But the big surprise was center Brendan Lane, who finished with 12 points, 14 rebounds and 7 blocks. Lamond Murray Jr. added 13 points in the win.
UC-Riverside went just 6-25 last season and is clearly in a world of hurt once again in 2013. It opened the season with an ugly 41-77 loss at San Diego State while shooting 30.8% from the floor. Riverside's average home attendance last year was 758, which means that they have very little home-court advantage.
Pepperdine beat Riverside 62-40 last year as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Waves held the Highlanders to just 28.6% shooting in the win as not one player for Riverside scored in double figures.
The Waves are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pepperdine is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Riverside is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Highlanders are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. Riverside is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Pepperdine Wednesday.
|11-13-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 207||99-111||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 207
The Lakers and Nuggets both play at very fast paces, and I look for a shootout tonight between these teams because of it. The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in pace with 102.8 possessions per game. The Nuggets aren't far behind, ranking 11th at 100.0 possessions per contest.
One big factor here that is getting overlooked is that Denver is without its best defensive player in JaVale McGee. Without his presence on the inside defensively, and his lack of offense on the other end, this is going to allow for more points being scored for both teams.
When you look at the recent history between the Lakers and Nuggets, it's easy to see that this number has been set too low. Los Angeles and Denver have combined for 227, 217, 240 and 225 points in their last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of 227.3 points per game, which is roughly 20 points more than tonight's posted total of 207.
The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last 9 games when playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-13-13||Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||27-48||Loss||-105||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Ball State/NIU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7.5
The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the country in 2013. They have opened 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread with their only loss coming on the road against a quality North Texas team by seven points. They have been dominant in victory, too, as seven of their nine wins have come by 18 points or more. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.3 points per game. They have played their best football on the road, going 4-1 against the spread while winning by 16.8 points per game.
Ball State is putting up 39.9 points and 475.7 yards per game to rank 25th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Keith Wenning is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 3,164 yards with 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Willie Snead has caught 74 balls for 1,175 yards and 12 scores. Jahwan Edwards has rushed for 749 yards and 12 touchdowns. The defense, which is only giving up 23.6 points per game, leads the country by forcing 26 turnovers on the season.
Sure, Northern Illinois has won four straight in this series, but Ball State has hung tough. The last time these teams met at Northern Illinois, Ball State lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 38-41. Last year, the Huskies won 35-23 at Ball State, but a closer look into the box score shows that the Cardinals probably should have won that game. They outgained the Huskies 563-509, and Wenning threw for 434 yards in the loss. Ball State held a 23-21 lead with under five minutes remaining before the Huskies tacked on two touchdowns in the closing minutes to pull away. Revenge is certainly on the Cardinals
|11-13-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics UNDER 193||89-83||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Celtics UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Boston Celtics Wednesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring affair between two of the worst offensive teams in the league.
Both teams play at slower than normal paces. Charlotte ranks 25th in the league at 95.1 possessions per game. Boston ranks 17th at 96.8 possessions per game. Worse yet, Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, while Boston ranks 20th in offensive efficiency.
Looking at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Boston and Charlotte have combined for 193 or less points in each of their last five meetings. Dating back further, the Celtics and Bobcats have combined for 193 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 meetings. That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 193.
Charlotte is 15-3 to the UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 58-26-2 in Bobcats last 86 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-12-13||Kansas v. Duke -4.5||94-83||Loss||-107||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* Kansas/Duke ESPN Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Duke -4.5
The Blue Devils are much better off to start the season than the Kansas Jayhawks. I fully expect them to blow the Jayhawks out of the building at the United Center in Chicago Tuesday.
Freshman phenom Jabari Parker made an immediate impact with 22 points in the Blue Devils' 111-77 rout of Davidson in Friday's season opener.
|11-12-13||Washington Wizards +6 v. Dallas Mavericks||Top||95-105||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +6
After losing by a final of 105-106 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, the Washington Wizards really showed what they are capable of this season. They have rebounded nicely following an 0-3 start, and following that 1-point loss, I look for them to go give Dallas everything it wants and more tonight.
The Mavericks are in a huge letdown spot here. They have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that contest. They won't come to play with their best effort because of it.
The Wizards are getting a ton of balance this season. They have five players averaging 13.5 points per game or more. You have to remember that Marcin Gortat was traded here just before the season, so it has taken him a few games to get accustomed to the system. He has played well in spite of it, averaging 13.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Washington is 13-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take Washington Tuesday.
|11-12-13||Buffalo +3.5 v. Toledo||Top||41-51||Loss||-110||23 h 16 m||Show|
20* Buffalo/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5
The Buffalo Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. After losing very tough road games to Ohio State and Baylor to open the season, which both remain unbeaten this year, the Bulls have responded by winning seven straight. In fact, their last six wins have come via blowout. They have beaten each of their last six opponents by 20 or more points, including last week
|11-12-13||VCU +4.5 v. Virginia||59-56||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* VCU/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Virginia Commonwealth +4.5
Virginia Commonwealth is one of the best teams in the country this season. It has opened the season ranked in the Top 25 and for good reason. It showed off what it is capable of with a 96-58 home win over Illinois State on November 8, and I fully expect it to go into Virginia and win outright tonight.
VCU returns three starters this season, including leading scoerers Juvonte Reddic (14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Treveon Graham (15.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Also back is Rob Brandenberg (10.4 ppg), Melvin Johnson (6.9 ppg) and Briante Weber (5.4 rpg).
The Rams play a pressure defense that is unmatched by anyone in the country. They get after it for 40 minutes and force opponents into mistakes, which leads to easy buckets the other way for Shaka Smart's club. The Rams forced 22 turnovers in the opener against Illinois State.
The Rams are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. VCU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Virginia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 foes. This is the best team in the Atlantic 10 in 2013, and it will show tonight. Bet VCU Tuesday.
|11-12-13||Hofstra +33 v. Louisville||69-97||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Hofstra +33
This play is more of a fade of Louisville than a play on Hofstra. I realize the Pride don't have the talent to hang with Louisville, but they do have enough to stay within 33 points of this ridiculous spread.
I am fading Louisville early in the season due to its reputation as the defending national champs. I believe it is way overvalued after losing its two most important players from last year in center Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg) and point guard Peyton Siva (10.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg).
I went against Louisville in its opener as a 22-point favorite against College of Charleston. That was a 48-45 game with six minutes remaining before the Cardinals used a ridiculous 22-3 run to close out the game to win 70-48. As you can see, that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate, but if you only saw the final score you wouldn't realize it.
Hofstra has put up 82.0 points per game while opening the season 1-1 with a loss to Monmouth (84-88) and a win over Fairleigh Dickinson (80-58). It is also shooting 47.1% from the field while only averaging 11 turnovers per game. Taking care of the ball will be huge against the Cardinals. Hofstra is 18-5 ATS in road games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games since 1997. Roll with Hofstra Tuesday.
|11-11-13||Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3||Top||19-22||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Bucs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3
|11-11-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -7.5||81-96||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -7.5
The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their 2-3 start. I believe their 97-73 home victory over Utah on Friday was a more telling sign up what this team is capable, and I fully expect the Bulls to be one of the best teams in the league from here-forward.
Chicago has now had two full days to prepare for Cleveland. In fact, this will only be the 3rd game in 9 days for the Bulls, so they'll be well rested and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers will be playing their 7th game in 11 days, so this is certainly a tired team right now.
This has been a one-sided series in recent years to say the least. Chicago has gone 10-1 in its last 11 meetings with Cleveland, and it is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers. In fact, the Bulls have won nine of their last 10 meetings with Cleveland by 9-plus points.
The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games. The Cavaliers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the 9-1 system where the Bulls have won nine of 10 vs. Cleveland by nine or more points, and we have a combined 34-3 system backing Chicago in this one. Roll with the Bulls Monday.
|11-11-13||Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190.5||105-120||Loss||-110||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 190.5
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics tonight. These teams just played each other on November 8 three days ago with the Celtics coming away with a 91-89 road victory for 180 combined points.
I was on the UNDER in that game, and I'll certainly be on the UNDER in the rematch tonight. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and having played just three days ago, there's no question that favors the defenses in this one.
Brad Stevens is a defensive-minded head coach who will have Boston playing in low-scoring games for most of the season. He values possessions offensively, and makes sure his players work the shot clock to find the best shot available.
It's no surprise that Boston is 5-2 to the UNDER through its first seven games due to Stevens' philosophy, and its lack of scorers to boot. Orlando is also 5-2 to the UNDER in the early going as oddsmakers continually set the totals too high for both of these teams.
Orlando is 10-1 to the UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 16-7-1 in the last 24 meetings in this series, including 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-11-13||Atlanta Hawks -2.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||Top||103-94||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks -2.5
The Atlanta Hawks are showing tremendous value as only a 2.5-point favorite against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats Monday. The Hawks have absolutely dominated this series over the past couple of seasons, and I look for that trend to continue tonight.
Atlanta is off to a 3-3 start this season despite playing a brutal schedule that has featured four road games. All three of its losses have come by nine points or less, including two by exactly two points at the Lakers and at the Nuggets. In my opinion, this will be its easiest game yet.
Charlotte is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 3-3 start. Its three wins have all come by six points or less, and its three losses have come via blowout at Houston (83-96), at New Orleans (84-105) and versus New York (91-101). Atlanta is outscoring teams by 1.5 points per game on the season, while Charlotte is getting outscored by 5.2 points per game.
The Hawks have won eight straight meetings with the Bobcats dating to a 96-85 home victory April 13, 2011. They have gone 7-1 ATS in the process. Atlanta's average margin of victory during that stretch is 16.3 points per game. Al Jefferson has been hobbled by an injured ankle, and he's questionable to return tonight for Charlotte.
Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. Charlotte is 4-17 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last three seasons. Atlanta is 10-1 ATS after two straight games where it attempted 90 or more shots since 1996. Bet the Hawks Monday.
|11-11-13||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Davidson -12||81-77||Loss||-110||7 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -12
Davidson went 26-8 last season and reached the NCAA Tournament. It returned senior forward De'Mon Brooks (13.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg) as well as experienced contributors such as point guard Tom Droney, small forward Chris Czerapowicz and shooting guard Tyler Kalinoski.
Wisconsin Milwaukee finished in last place in the Horizon League with an 8-24 record overall and a 3-13 mark in conference play. While point guard Jordan Aaron (12.8 ppg, 3.9 apg conference play) is back, the Panthers return only one other starter from a team that struggled in every phase of the game.
Davidson has set up a brutal non-conference schedule that features the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Wichita State. After falling 77-111 to a Top-5 Duke team in the opener Saturday, and with Virginia on deck, Davidson knows it must take care of business in the rest of its non-conference games against weaker teams like this one if it wants to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
Brooks had a solid game against Duke, pouring in 24 points and grabbing seven board while going 7-for-9 from the field. Droney also played well, scoring 16 points in the loss. I look for these two players to carry the load against the overmatched Panthers, who fell 62-66 at Loyola-Illinois in their opener.
This is also a revenge game for Davidson, which lost at Milwaukee last year in one of its worst performances of the season. That's a big reason why the Wildcats will not be overlooking the Panthers tonight.
Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Davidson is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last three years. The Wildcats are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 85 points or more since 1997. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Wildcats. Take Davidson Monday.
|11-10-13||Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6||17-49||Win||100||34 h 5 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Saints NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans -6
After losing at New York despite dominating the game last week, the New Orleans Saints are going to return home pissed off and ready to go Sunday night. They outgained the Jets 407-338 for the game, but lost Darren Sproles on the team's first drive, which made them much more easy to deal with. However, Sproles will return this week and will give this soft Dallas defense fits.
New Orleans is putting up 27.0 points and 397.4 yards per game this season to rank 7th in the league in total offense. I've been even more impressed with the new stop unit under the guidance of defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan. The stop unit is giving up just 18.2 points and 333.1 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total defense. Ryan wants revenge on the Cowboys, who made him the scapegoat and canned him after last season.
When you look at Dallas' numbers, it's easy to see that it is way overrated due to its 5-4 record. Three of those wins have come against teams from the NFC East, which is the worst division in football. The Cowboys rank 17th in the league in total offense at 342.6 yards per game, and a woeful 31st in total defense at 419.2 yards per game allowed. Their defense will get shredding by this high-powered New Orleans offense Sunday night.
The Saints simply do not lose at home. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in home games this season, outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game. New Orleans is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games overall. The Saints are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons. They are winning by an average of 19.2 points per game in this spot. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|11-10-13||New Orleans Pelicans -2 v. Phoenix Suns||94-101||Loss||-105||17 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2
There's no question that the Phoenix Suns have been one of the biggest surprise teams in the early going. They are off to a 4-2 start this year, which includes a 104-98 win at New Orleans on November 5. That sets the Pelicans up for a big revenge spot here. After losing at home to the Suns, I fully expect them to return the favor five days later.
New Orleans did not look great in the early going, but it has managed to rebound for two straight blowout victories to get back to 3-3 on the season. It won at Memphis (99-84) and topped the Lakers (96-85) at home. Unlike the Suns, I fully believe the Pelicans are here to stay for the long haul with the talent they have on board. Meanwhile, Phoenix will fade as the season progresses due to a lack of overall talent.
Indeed, the Pelicans are loaded with talent. Anthony Davis is averaging 23.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.3 blocks and 2.0 steals per game to live up to his No. 1 pick status. Eric Gordon (16.5 points) is healthy, while Jrue Holiday (13.7 points, 7.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (8.5 points) were excellent additions this offseason.
Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together over the past couple seasons. In fact, the road team has won five of the last eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS in the process. New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. Phoenix is 8-21 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Take the Pelicans Sunday.
|11-10-13||Carolina Panthers +6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||10-9||Win||100||30 h 39 m||Show|
15* Panthers/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +6.5
Quietly, the Carolina Panthers have been one of the best teams in the entire league in 2013. They have gotten to 5-3 on the season thanks to winning five of their last six games via blowout. Their five victories have been against the Giants (38-0), Vikings (35-10), Rams (30-15), Bucs (31-13) and Falcons (34-10). That's complete domination folks.
Carolina continues to get no respect from the books this week as a 6-point underdog at San Francisco. They're saying that the 49ers are three points better on a neutral field, and I'm not buying it. I believe these teams are very evenly-matched and that this game will go right down to the wire with the winner likely winning by a field goal.
In my opinion, the Panthers have the best defense in the league right up there with the Chiefs. They are giving up just 13.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 299.9 yards per game allowed. The reason they have an advantage in this game particularly is because of their ability to stop the run.
San Francisco relies heavily on its running game, ranking 1st in the league in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game. The 49ers have the worst passing offense in the league, ranking 32nd at 189.9 yards per game through the air. So, the key to stopping San Francisco is stopping its running game. Carolina has the perfect antidote, ranking 2nd in the league against the run at 79.1 yards per game and 3.7 per carry.
During the team's four-game winning streak, Cam Newton is completing 72.3 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns, two picks and a 109.8 rating along with three rushing touchdowns. Carolina is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Ron Rivera is 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Carolina. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|11-10-13||Jacksonville Jaguars +13 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||29-27||Win||100||27 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +13
After going 0-8 straight up and 1-7 against the spread through the first half of their season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be showing a ton of value in the second half. Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is going to keep fading Jacksonville, and that is going to force them to set the numbers a lot higher than they should be. I'm going to take advantage, starting this week.
If the Jaguars were going to win their first game of the season, this would be the perfect situation for it. They are coming off their bye week, getting two full weeks to prepare for division rival Tennessee, so this is a game where they should be in a great state of mind coming in. Meanwhile, the Titans have a game against the division-leading Indianapolis Colts on deck, which makes this a lookahead spot for them.
At 4-4, Tennessee is clearly one of the most overrated teams in the league. It is averaging just 318.0 yards per game to rank 24th in the league in total offense. It is giving up 340.4 yards per game, getting outgained by 22.4 yards per game on the season. This team does not deserve to be laying double-digit points against any team in the league, even the Jaguars.
Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-8 (81.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This trend just goes to show how backing these teams that are perceived as 'awful' can really pay dividends for bettors. I expect it to pay off this weekend. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-10-13||St. Louis Rams +10 v. Indianapolis Colts||Top||38-8||Win||100||27 h 36 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on St. Louis Rams +10
You have to give the Rams a lot of credit for the way they have fought the last couple of weeks. They fell 9-14 to Seattle as a 13-point underdog, but really dominated that game and should have won. They outgained the Seahawks 339-135 for the game. They also played a very good game last week, falling 21-28 to the Tennessee Titans in a very evenly-matched game that saw both teams gain exactly 363 yards.
A new-found running game has taken a lot of pressure off of St. Louis quarterback Kellen Clemens, who has played pretty well all things considered. The Rams rushed for 200 yards against Seattle and 160 more against Tennessee. Zac Stacy has been one of the best running backs in the league over the past couple of weeks. He has 475 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season while averaging an impressive 4.6 yards per carry.
Indianapolis has been soft against the run this season. It ranks 26th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 124.9 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It gave up 171 yards to Oakland, 218 yards to Seattle, 147 to San Diego and 143 to Houston. Considering the Colts are actually getting outgained by 26.3 yards per game on the season, they clearly aren
|11-10-13||Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears||21-19||Win||102||27 h 33 m||Show|
15* Lions/Bears NFC North No-Brainer on Detroit PK
This is a very favorable spot for Detroit and a very tough one for Chicago. Despite the fact that both teams are 5-3 heading into this game with first place in the NFC North on the line, I believe the Lions have a decisive advantage going into it.
Detroit is coming off its bye week, giving it two full weeks to prepare for Chicago. Meanwhile, the Bears will be on short rest after their huge Monday Night Football win over the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. That gives a huge edge in rest and preparation to the Lions, while also setting the Bears up for a letdown spot off a win over their biggest rivals.
The Lions beat the Bears 40-32 at home in their first meeting this season. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Lions led 40-16 with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. Jay Cutler threw three interceptions in the loss, while Reggie Bush rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown in the win.
Chicago has all kinds of injury concerns heading into this one. Its defense is very soft due to the losses of LB Lance Briggs, LB D.J. Williams, DT Henry Melton, DT Nate Collins and DT Jay Ratliff. Cutler is expected to return from a groin injury, but he may be coming back too soon as Josh McCown played well in his place. Bush should have another monster game on the ground against a Chicago defense that has allowed a combined 408 rushing yards in its last two games.
The Bears are 12-33 ATS in their last 45 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play. Chicago is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bears. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Roll with the Lions Sunday.
|11-10-13||Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens +1||17-20||Win||105||27 h 32 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Ravens AFC North Rivalry Play on Baltimore +1
This is essentially a must-win for the Baltimore Ravens. At 3-5 on the season, they trail the Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) by 2.5 games for first place in the AFC North. They simply cannot afford to lose this game if they want any chance of winning the division, and as a result, I expect their best effort of the season at home Sunday.
Due to injuries, the Cincinnati Bengals are not going to be as strong the rest of the way as they were in the first half of the season. That was evident in a 20-22 loss at Miami last week as the defense was shredded for 157 rushing yards by the Dolphins. It's no coincidence that the Dolphins were able to have so much success on the ground considering the injuries the Bengals are dealing with.
Cincinnati has lost its rock in the middle in defensive tackle Geno Atkins (knee) for the season in the loss to Miami. Atkins, who had a team-best six sacks and a career-high 12 1/2 in 2012, joins cornerback Leon Hall (Achilles), safety Taylor Mays (shoulder) and defensive end Robert Geathers (elbow) on injured reserve.
Middle linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee, concussion) and offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth (knee) didn't play last week and both were held out of practice Wednesday. Maualuga is doubtful Sunday, while Whitworth is expected to play. Linebacker Michael Boely is doubtful, while running back Giovani Bernard is expected to return despite sitting out late in the Miami game due to a rib injury.
Baltimore has fell victim to a tough schedule more than anything. It has played five road games compared to only three home games. It is 2-1 at home with its only loss coming to the Green Bay Packers by a final of 17-19. Cincinnati is just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the road this year. The Ravens have been on the wrong end of several close calls, losing their last three by a combined 11 points. Cincinnati has lost in each of its last three visits to Baltimore and was blown out 44-13 in its latest one Sept. 10, 2012.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the past seven meetings. The Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|11-10-13||Buffalo Bills v. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5||10-23||Win||100||27 h 31 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
The Steelers have clearly been much better than their record would indicate this season. They are almost dead even in yards gained and yards allowed this year, averaging 341.9 yards per game on offense and giving up 341.2 yards per game on defense. That is more of a sign of a team that would be 4-4 right now rather than one that is 2-6, but the Steelers are -11 in turnover differential, which has been the difference.
The Bills, on the other hand, are about as bad as their 3-6 record would indicate. They are averaging 344.7 yards per game offensively, while giving up 362.1 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by 17.4 yards per game. They are yielding 26.2 points per game to rank 24th in the league in scoring defense. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to New Orleans (17-35) and Kansas City (13-23).
Pittsburgh has absolutely dominated this series with Buffalo. In fact, the Steelers are 8-1 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings in this series. All eight of their wins have come by three points or more, including six by 13 or more. At home as only a 2.5-point favorite, there
|11-09-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings -1.5||96-85||Loss||-110||11 h 58 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5
This is a home-and-home situation between the Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings. Portland won at home last night 104-91, and I fully expect the Kings to come back the more motivated team tonight to protect their home court in the second meeting.
Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league. That has been evident in recent meetings with the Blazers, as the Kings have taken three of the past four meetings at home. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings overall.
Portland had a historically bad bench last season, and its bench has not gotten that much better in 2013. That makes dealing with these back-to-back situation much more difficult on the Blazers than it would be for most teams.
Starters Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are all averaging at least 34 minutes per game. Head coach Terry Stotts' hand is forced to have his starters play big minutes due to the lack of a bench. Only Mo Williams (7.2 ppg) is averaging more than 4.8 ppg off Portland's bench this year.
Meanwhile, Sacramento has a deep bench. That's evident by the fact that the Kings have a whopping nine players averaging at least 17 minutes per game this season. They bring guys like Ben McLemore, Travis Outlaw, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes off the bench, which is a pretty salty crew.
Portland is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after a win by 10 points or more. The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after scoring 100 or more points in two straight games. The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Sacramento Saturday.
|11-09-13||Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies -3||90-108||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -3
The Memphis Grizzlies were getting way too much respect to open the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. As a result, they have opened the season 0-5 against the spread. Now, the betting public is off this team, which has forced them to set a weak line tonight.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are the flavor of the week in the early going due to their 4-1-1 ATS mark. Now, Golden State is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers, and the roles have reversed. There is a ton of value with Memphis as only a 3-point home favorite tonight.
The Grizzlies will come out determined for a win after opening 2-3 this year. They have had two days off to prepare for the Warriors having last played on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. This will also be the 4th game of a tough 4-game road trip, and there's no question the Warriors are tired, while the Grizzlies are well-rested.
Making matters worse for the Warriors is that Stephen Curry (ankle) is questionable to play tonight after sitting out last night's 74-76 loss at San Antonio. Whether he plays or not, I like the Grizzlies to win and cover, but if he doesn't play it's only an added bonus. Chances are he won't be playing after sitting out last night as 24 hours probably isn't long enough for his ankle to fully recover.
The Warriors tend to struggle without Stephen Curry, but having him hasn't made much of a difference against the Memphis Grizzlies. His importance to the Warriors has been evident when he's missing - especially on the road. They're 16-39 without Curry, dropping 23 of 31 contests away from home.
His status may not matter since the Warriors have dropped nine straight meetings with the Grizzlies, and Curry has averaged 22.9 points in eight of them. He poured in 32 with eight assists and five rebounds in a 99-93 defeat in the most recent visit to Memphis on Feb. 8. The Warriors have lost eight in a row there dating to a victory on April 4, 2008. That is a span of over five years. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.
|11-09-13||LSU +13 v. Alabama||Top||17-38||Loss||-114||50 h 58 m||Show|
25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55
Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven
|11-09-13||LSU v. Alabama UNDER 55||Top||17-38||Push||0||50 h 57 m||Show|
25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55
Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven
|11-09-13||Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 201.5||125-127||Loss||-110||11 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Cavaliers UNDER 201.5
This is a home-and-home situation for the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. These teams met last night in Philadelphia with the 76ers pulling out a 94-79 victory for 173 combined points.
I look for a similar low-scoring affair tonight as these teams square off for a second straight night. There's no question that the familiarity of one another favors the UNDER as the defenses know the opposing offense tendencies. Those tendencies aren't going to change over night.
Taking a look at this series between Philadelphia and Cleveland, its easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. In fact, each of the last nine meetings have seen 190 or less combined points. They have combined for 173, 168, 184, 175, 165, 190, 188, 183, and 186 points in their last nine meetings, respectively. That's an average of 179.1 combined points/game, which is roughly 22 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.
The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Cavaliers last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-09-13||Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5||96-91||Loss||-110||11 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5
The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a mere 1.5-point home favorite over the Indiana Pacers tonight. Off an overtime loss to Washington, Brooklyn is going to come back pissed off and ready to go tonight.
Indiana is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start this season. I faded it with success last night by backing the Raptors +9, and I'll fade the Pacers again tonight. They are in the toughest possible situation, playing their 4th game in 5 nights.
This Indiana team had one of the worst benches in the entire league last year, and it has done little to upgrade its bench in 2013. Not having a bench makes it extremely difficult to play a 4th game in 5 nights.
While Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and it went to overtime last night, this will only be its 2nd game in 4 nights. Plus, the Nets have one of the best benches in the league. They have 12 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, and their bench consists of solid players like Jason Terry, Shaun Livingston, Andray Blatche, Andrei Kirilenko and Reggie Evans.
Brooklyn went 3-0 against Indiana last season. Paul George averaged 13.7 points on 37% shooting in those three contests, while Roy Hibbert has averaged 10.3 points on 38% shooting during a four-game losing streak to Brooklyn. Brook Lopez averaged 21.3 points and 3.0 blocks in last season's series, and he's averaged 22.3 points in 10 meetings against Indiana since the 2009-10 season.
The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Roll with the Nets Saturday.
|11-09-13||Boston Celtics +13.5 v. Miami Heat||111-110||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +13.5
The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat Saturday. Boston came into the season undervalued, and that has proven to be the case with its 4-2 ATS mark on the year.
Despite being 2-4 on the season, Boston has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points. Despite being 4-2 on the season, Miami has yet to win a came by more than 12 points. I simply believe this number has been inflated tonight due to the perception that Boston isn't very good, and that Miami is the defending champs.
Miami has a way of playing down to its competition. That's especially the case now that it is back-to-back champs, which makes it hard to get up for regular season games like this one against a team that is perceived to be not very good. The Heat were certainly up for the Clippers last time out, winning 102-97 at home Thursday. However, off such a big win, that sets them up for a letdown tonight.
Lebron James is nursing a sore back, which will certainly have him limited tonight. The Heat used to look at Boston as rivals, but now they have to look at them in a completely different manner with Pierce and Garnett gone. That will leave them in a poor state of mind heading into this one.
Five straight and nine of the last 10 meetings between Boston and Miami have been decided by 13 points or less. The Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast opponents. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Miami. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|11-09-13||Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||42-24||Win||100||49 h 57 m||Show|
20* VA Tech/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +7
The Virginia Tech Hokies really have a legitimate chance to win the Coastal Division with a victory Saturday. They would have victories against both Miami and Georgia Tech, which are their two closest contenders. That
|11-09-13||Arkansas State v. Louisiana Monroe -3||42-14||Loss||-120||49 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Monroe -3
Arkansas State continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point road underdog to Louisiana-Monroe. Somehow, this team is getting treated like the back-to-back Sun Belt champion it was the past two years, and not the woeful 4-4 team it is in 2013.
Arkansas State's four wins have come against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Troy, Idaho and South Alabama. As you can see, it does not have a good win on its schedule yet. It even struggled to beat Troy (41-34) at home and South Alabama (17-16) on the road. It is just 1-3 on the road this season with blowout losses to Memphis (7-31), Missouri (19-41) and Auburn (9-38). It also fell 7-23 at home to Louisiana-Lafayette while gaining just 168 total yards in the defeat.
Louisiana-Monroe has turned around its season, and now at 3-1 in Sun Belt play, it has a legitimate shot to win the conference this year. But due to the slow start, which was aided by an injury to starting quarterback Kolton Browning, this team is now underrated. The Warhawks have reeled off three straight victories to get back on track, including the last two thanks to the healthy return of their star quarterback.
Browning threw for 224 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-10 win over Georgia State on October 26. He came back five days later and threw for 354 yards and five touchdowns, while also rushing for another score in a 49-37 win at Troy on October 31. That brings me to my next point, which is that the Warhawks have had two extra days to prepare for Arkansas State, which last played on November 2 against South Alabama.
Monroe has had this game circled on their calendars all offseason. They have lost three straight to Arkansas State, including a 45-23 road loss last season. But that Arkansas State team had the best quarterback in Sun Belt history in Ryan Aplin, who had 10,758 career passing yards and ton of rushing yards to go with it. New quarterback Adam Kennedy has thrown just seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season, which is a far cry from what Aplin put up year after year.
Plays against road underdogs (ARKANSAS ST) - off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Better yet, plays on home favorites (LA MONROE) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1992. Also, the home team has won seven of the past eight meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-09-13||Mississippi State +19.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||41-51||Win||100||45 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miss State/Texas A&M CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +19.5
|11-09-13||USC v. California +17||62-28||Loss||-110||45 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17
You have to give the Cal Golden Bears a lot of credit for the way they continue to fight. They have covered the spread in each of their last two games and are clearly starting to show value against the spread due to their poor start this season. They covered as a 28-point underdog at Washington in a 17-41 loss. They followed that up with their best performance of the season, which was a 28-33 home loss to Arizona as a 14.5-point underdog last weekend.
I really like what I
|11-09-13||College of Charleston +22 v. Louisville||48-70||Push||0||5 h 45 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on College of Charleston +22
I almost always look to fade the champion of the previous NCAA Tournament early in the season the next year. That champ can almost never live up to the hype in the early going, and it has a hard time coming back hungry the following season.
I believe Louisville will take a step back early before improving a ton late, which is the case almost every year for Rick Pitino and company. The Cardinals lost arguably their two best players in Peyton Siva (10.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg) and Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg). Siva was the leader of the offense, while Dieng was the enforcer on defense.
Charleston is going to make a run at the NCAA Tournament in 2013. It went 24-11 last year for its fourth straight 20-win season. With four starters back from that squad, this team will give Louisville a run for its money tonight. That includes junior guard Anthony Stitt (11.0 ppg, 3.2 apg) and junior center Adjehi Baru (9.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg).
Charleston is 58-28 ATS as a road underdog or pick since 1997. Charleston is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points. The Cougars are 29-12-1 ATS in their last 42 Saturday games. They played their best basketball on the road last season, going 13-3 away from home. Bet College of Charleston Saturday.
|11-09-13||Western Kentucky -5.5 v. Army||21-17||Loss||-110||42 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky -5.5
There's no question in my mind that Western Kentucky is the superior team in this game against Army. That will show on the football field as the Hiltoppers roll to a blowout road victory to become bowl eligible with their sixth win of the season.
Western Kentucky has been dominant on both sides of the football. It is scoring 30.8 points and averaging 476.6 yards per game to rank 26th in the country in total offense. It is giving up just 361.9 yards per game to rank 29th in total defense. This team is even better than its 5-4 record would indicate.
Sure, losses to LA Lafayette and Troy are concerning but a closer look shows that they really should have won both of those games. The Hilltoppers outgained Lafayette 471-344 for the game, but were -3 in turnover differential. They also outgained Troy 532-397. So, as you can see, they dominated both of those games in every area but the scoreboard.
Army is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to two of the worst teams in college football in Temple (14-33) and Air Force (28-42). Its only wins this season have come against three terrible teams in Morgan State (28-12), LA Tech (35-16) and Eastern Michigan (50-25). That's the same Morgan State team that Western Kentucky beat (58-17).
The Hilltoppers beat Navy 19-7 on September 28, so they have some nice experience against the triple-option offense. They held the Midshipmen to just 183 total yards in the win. Navy is a much better football team than Army, and its runs the triple-option much more effectively.
Western Kentucky is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Black Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Army is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.
|11-08-13||Air Force v. New Mexico -3||Top||37-45||Win||100||26 h 22 m||Show|
20* Air Force/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico -3
While the New Mexico Lobos have just two wins this season, they have been much more competitive than they were in years
|11-08-13||Toronto Raptors +9 v. Indiana Pacers||84-91||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9
The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued due to their 5-0 start this season. They are coming off a huge win over fellow Central Division contender Chicago on Wednesday, setting them up for a big letdown spot here as they host the Toronto Raptors. They also have a road game at Brooklyn on deck tomorrow, which makes this a potential lookahead.
Toronto has been much better than its 2-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses came by nine points or less, and that 9-point setback was against the defending champion Miami Heat.
Home-court advantage has meant absolutely nothing when Indiana and Toronto have gotten together over the last couple of year. In fact, the road team is is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Toronto has won its last two visits to Indiana outright as a 7-point and 9-point underdog, respectively.
Plays against any team (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 75-37 (67%) ATS since 1996. Toronto is 14-4 ATS in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 19-8 ATS in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Raptors Friday.
|11-08-13||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 192||91-89||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Both teams are in rebuilding mode, and each lacks offensive firepower, especially the Celtics.
Boston is only averaging 89.4 points per game despite shooting a solid 47% from the floor this season. That just shows how slow of a pace it plays at, which is no surprise considering head coach Brad Stevens always played at a snail's pace at Butler. The Celtics have been solid defensively, giving up just 93.4 points per game.
Orlando's numbers are a bit inflated due to playing an overtime game against Minnesota that resulted in 235 combined points. However, three of their five games have seen 193 or less combined points. That includes the 98-90 win on Wednesday against one of the best offensive teams in the NBA in the Los Angeles Clippers.
Plays on the UNDER on any team (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 49-21 (70%) over the last five seasons.
Orlando is 9-1 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 56-33 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game since 1996. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 road games. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is is 43-20-2 in Magic last 65 Friday games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-08-13||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 191||101-91||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Knicks OVER 191
The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and New York Knicks tonight. I look for this to be a shootout with these teams combining for more than 191 points with ease, which has certainly been the case in recent meetings.
Charlotte and New York have combined for 198 or more points in each of their last four meetings. Those four games have seen 199, 201, 213 and 198 points for an average of 202.8 points/game. That includes Charlotte's 102-97 road victory on November 5 just three days ago.
Now, Tyson Chandler has suffered an injury that will keep him out for the next 4-to-6 weeks. That's a huge loss for New York as they'll be playing without their former Defensive Player of the Year. That will open things up a lot for opposing offenses, and it will force the Knicks to be even more perimeter-oriented offensively than they already are. This should lead to easy buckets for opposing teams on long rebounds with fast break opportunities.
New York is 27-9 to the OVER after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more shots than opponent since 1996. Charlotte is 24-13 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Bobcats are 16-5 to the OVER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. New York is 12-4-2 to the OVER in its last 18 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-08-13||Maryland v. Connecticut -4.5||77-78||Loss||-110||7 h 5 m||Show|
15* Maryland/UConn 2013 CBB Season Opener on Connecticut -4.5
Connecticut once again has something to play for after failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament last season because of poor academic progress rates. The 18th-ranked Huskies are flying under the radar heading into the 2013-14 season due to not being eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year. They should be laying more than 4.5 points to Maryland in the opener.
UConn went 20-10 last season but had to watch other teams battle for the title in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies are once again eligible for postseason play, and junior guard Ryan Boatright says they also are very hungry.
"We know how it felt last year to put everything on the line every game and not get a chance to play for a ring like a lot of teams we watched in the tournament that we beat," he said. "It hurt watching the tournament. But, to have that pain stuck inside of us and to know that we've got a chance to win this year, it just motivates us."
Boatright and backcourt running mate Shabazz Napier both passed up a chance at the NBA draft to return this season. They will be joined by the rest of the 2012-13 starters - Omar Calhoun, DeAndre Daniels and Tyler Olander.
"We're going to be really great," said Daniels, who averaged more than 22 points over his last four games last season. "I feel like guys on this team are working even harder to try and win every game."
Maryland loses its best player in 7-1 center Alex Len to the NBA. While it does have some nice experience coming back, this NIT team from last year simply does not have the talent to match up with Connecticut. Bet the Huskies Friday.
|11-07-13||Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -3||Top||107-109||Loss||-109||15 h 45 m||Show|
20* Hawks/Nuggets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3
As one of two winless teams on the season, the Denver Nuggets (0-3) are clearly highly motivated for their first victory of the year. I look for them to take out their frustration Thursday on the Atlanta Hawks, who are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
The good news is that Denver has had plenty of practice time to get things straightened out. It is the only team in the entire league to have played just three games to this point in the season. New head coach Brian Shaw has had extra time to implement his systems, and I look for that extra practice to start paying off as soon as tonight.
It started to pay off in their last game against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets held a 78-72 lead entering the fourth quarter against the defending Western Conference champs, only to get outscored 30-16 in the final period to lose 94-102. If they can hang with the Spurs, they can certainly beat the Hawks by more than three points tonight.
I don't believe the Hawks have shown enough to be getting this much respect from the books as only a 3-point road dog to the Nuggets, who have historically been one of the best home teams in the league. Atlanta's two wins came against Toronto (102-95) and Sacramento (105-100). It also fell at Dallas (109-118) and at the Lakers (103-105).
Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge when the Hawks and Nuggets get together in recent years. Indeed, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. Denver has won six straight home meetings with Atlanta, and five of the last six meetings in this series overall.
The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Denver is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 home games against Southeast Division opponents. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.
|11-07-13||Oregon -10 v. Stanford||Top||20-26||Loss||-110||23 h 33 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon -10
The Ducks have certainly made a case for being the best team in all of college football. They have won every game this season by 21 or more points en route to their 8-0 start. That includes a 45-24 win at Washington, which is the same team should have won at Stanford, losing 28-31 despite outgaining the Cardinal by 210 total yards.
Oregon is putting up 55.6 points and 632.1 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota is the Heisman Trophy front runner to this point thanks to his 2,281 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions, as well as his 511 rushing yards and nine scores. The defense hasn
|11-07-13||Washington Redskins -1 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||27-34||Loss||-125||64 h 40 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins -1 (-125)
Despite the fact that they are just 3-5, the Redskins are still very much alive in the NFC East race. After a huge overtime win against San Diego this past Sunday, they trail the Dallas Cowboys by just 1.5 games for the division lead. They finished the second half last year on a seven-game winning streak, and that will give them the confidence to do something special to close out the 2013 campaign, too.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has nothing to play for even though we
|11-07-13||Troy +14 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||36-41||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
15* Troy/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +14
The Troy Trojans have a big edge in rest heading into this one. They last played on Thursday, October 31, while Louisiana-Lafayette last played on Saturday, November 2. That gives them a full two days extra to prepare for this contest, which is huge considering this is a short week for the Rajin
|11-07-13||Los Angeles Clippers v. Miami Heat UNDER 210.5||97-102||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Heat TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this showdown between the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat. These National TV games usually bring out the best in team defense, and I look for that to be the case tonight in this matchup between two of the top contenders to win the NBA Title in 2013-14.
I believe this number has been inflated largely due to both teams going OVER the total frequently in the early going. Los Angeles is 4-1 to the OVER thus far, while Miami is 4-1 to the OVER as well. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this number higher than it should be because the betting public is going to continue pounding the OVER in this game tonight. I'll go the other way.
Let's take a look at the two meetings between Miami and Los Angeles last year. In their first meeting on November 14, the books set the total at 197 and they combined for 207 points to go OVER the number. In their second meeting on February 8, they set the total at 193 and they went OVER again with 200 combined points. Now, they've set the total at 210.5 points, which is way higher than last year's two totals, which further proves my point that there is a ton of value on the UNDER.
While the Clippers have been soft defensively thus far, there's no question that head coach Doc Rivers won't stand for it for much longer. They are coming off their best defensive performance of the season last night, though they still lost 90-98 at Orlando for 188 combined points. I look for them to continue to make strides defensively tonight against the Heat.
The UNDER is 23-8 in Clippers last 31 Thursday games. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Heat's last six Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Heat's last eight home games. Miami is 15-5 to the UNDER in home games after making 85% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-06-13||Central Michigan +21 v. Ball State||Top||24-44||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
20* CMU/Ball State MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +21
The Chippewas are playing their best football of the season of late. Prior to their loss to Northern Illinois on October 19 last time out, they had won two straight road games over Miami Ohio (21-9) and Ohio (26-23). That win over the Bobcats was quite impressive considering they were a 20-point underdog but managed 432 total yards in the win.
Having last played on October 19, Central Michigan now has had more than two full weeks to prepare for Ball State. They have had an extra week to prepare than the Cardinals, who last played on October 26.
With a game against fellow MAC West leader Northern Illinois on deck next Wednesday, this is a huge letdown spot for Ball State. That game will almost certainly decide the MAC West winner, so it doesn
|11-06-13||Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics UNDER 185||87-97||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 185
The Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics are two of the worst teams in the league in 2013. Both are 0-4 to start the year and each will be hungry for their first victory. I look for both teams to bring max effort defensively in this one in search of that elusive first win.
Brad Stevens ran a very slow tempo at Butler, and he has brought his same philosophy to these Celtics. Playing at home, Boston will control the tempo in this one and make this a half-court game from start to finish, limiting the possessions for both teams.
Both squads have been atrocious offensively in 2013. Boston is scoring just 87.5 points per game despite shooting a respectable 45.5%, which shows how slow of a tempo it plays at. Utah is putting up 90.7 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtis last six games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-06-13||Los Angeles Clippers v. Orlando Magic +7||90-98||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7
The Los Angeles Clippers are in a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off a big win over the Houston Rockets on Monday night, and they have an even bigger game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck Thursday in a game that will be nationally televised on TNT. I fully expect them to be overlooking the Orlando Magic tonight.
Everyone has been overlooking the Magic this season due to finishing with the worst record in the league a year ago. This team is much-improved, going 2-2 straight up and a perfect 4-0 against the spread. Its two losses came on the road with one in overtime against Minnesota. Its two wins came at home via blowout with a 110-90 win over New Orleans, and a 107-86 victory over Brooklyn.
Los Angeles is one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season. It is giving up 112.5 points per game and 48.2% shooting, so Doc Rivers hasn't been able to make up for the lack of defensive talent in the early going. Orlando is putting up 104.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting, including 43.5% from 3-point range.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Magic are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. Orlando is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 meetings with Los Angeles. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|11-06-13||Chicago Bulls +3 v. Indiana Pacers||80-97||Loss||-109||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Pacers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3
The Chicago Bulls have obviously not played up to their potential en route to a 1-2 start this season. However, this is a resilient team, and with three days off heading into this showdown with the Indiana Pacers, I fully expect them to correct their mistakes and to come away with a win tonight against NBA Central Division rival Indiana.
The Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 99-91 win at Detroit last night. That gives the Bulls a huge edge in rest and preparation heading into this one. Not only will they want it more, they will be more better prepared than Indiana to come away with a victory tonight.
"You've got to correct things immediately; you got to put the work into it," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told the team's official website. "You can't hope it to happen; you have to make it happen. And we need everybody doing it. We can't rely on a certain two or three guys to do everything. Our entire team is needed. This isn't a Derrick issue, this is a team issue and we have to correct it."
Chicago is 14-6 against Indiana with Derrick Rose in the lineup. Thibodeau is 33-13 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 26-9 ATS off a loss by six points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|11-06-13||Washington Wizards -1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||116-102||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5
The Washington Wizards are highly motivated for their first win of the season Wednesday night. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they already lost to the Philadelphia 76ers by a final of 102-109 at home on November 1, so they will be seeking revenge, too.
Philadelphia is way overvalued after a 3-1 start with three wins by seven points or fewer. The fact of the matter is that this team lacks talent, and its true colors showed last time out in a 90-110 home loss to the Golden State Warriors.
Washington has had two days off since a 93-103 loss at Miami on Sunday. It comes in fully rested and fully prepared to avenge its earlier loss to the 76ers. Look for John Wall and company to come out with their best effort of the season tonight to get the win and cover.
Washington is 18-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponents over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS after coving three of its last four against the spread over the past two years. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.
|11-05-13||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -1.5||116-101||Loss||-110||19 h 16 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1.5
The Houston Rockets are in a very tough situation tonight. They will be playing their 4th game in 5 days after losing 118-137 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. There's no question that game took a lot out of them as the Clippers simply ran them to death. That obviously makes matters worst heading into their 4th game in five nights at Portland Tuesday.
The Trail Blazers will have a huge edge in rest in this one. They actually come in on two days' rest since their 115-105 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, November 2. That followed up an even more impressive 113-98 road win at Denver the previous night. There's no question this team is improved.
Portland had one of the best starting fives in the league last season led by LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. All four of those guys are back to lead the way, and they're combining to average roughly 80 points per game between them. The Blazers' problem last year was that they had no bench.
Well, Portland has shored up that area as well. Not only is Robin Lopez an upgrade over J.J. Hickson as the starting center, but guys like Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson are now manning the Blazers' bench. That's a huge upgrade over last year's bench, which was historically one of the worst that the NBA has ever seen. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Blazers in a very favorable spot Tuesday.
|11-05-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 214.5||104-123||Loss||-110||18 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavericks/Lakers UNDER 214.5
Oddsmakers are overreacting from the high-scoring nature in the early going of both Lakers and Mavericks games. While there's no question that the Mavericks have been impressive offensively, while the Lakers have upped the tempo a bit, this total is simply set too high and there's a ton of value with the UNDER.
The Lakers are only scoring 100.0 points per game this season. They clearly miss Kobe Bryant on offense and have to make up for his absence by playing better on the defensive end. While it hasn't always been pretty, the Lakers have been much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing 91 points to the Spurs and 103 to the Hawks in their last two contests.
When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Lakers and Mavericks have combined for 209 or less points in 16 of their last 17 meetings. The only game they didn't was a 112-108 overtime victory for the Lakers on 4/15/2012. That game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation for 196 combined points.
So, not counting overtime, the Lakers and Mavs have combined for 209 or less in 17 straight meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2010. I understand these teams are different this year, but not different enough to warrant this ridiculous 214.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-05-13||Ohio v. Buffalo -3.5||Top||3-30||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ohio/Buffalo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -3.5
The Buffalo Bulls have been one of the most improved teams in the country this season. As a result, they have also been one of the most underrated. After opening the season with losses against Ohio State and Baylor, who each remain undefeated, the Bulls have reeled off six straight victories while going 5-1 against the spread in the process.
In its last five games, Buffalo has been absolutely destroying opponents. In fact, it has won five straight games by 20 or more points. It beat Connecticut (41-12), Eastern Michigan (42-14) and UMass (32-3) at home, while also winning at Western Michigan (33-0) and Kent State (41-21) on the road.
Ohio was absolutely blown 7-49 at Louisville in its only true road test this season. Its other two road games came at Akron and at Eastern Michigan, which were both wins. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 22.2 points per game.
The Bulls clearly want revenge from last season
|11-04-13||Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers -5||118-137||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5
The Los Angeles Clippers (2-1) want to make a statement tonight against the 3-0 Houston Rockets. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Friday, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Rockets.
Getting two days to prepare for Houston is pretty big. The Rockets are one of the more tough teams to prepare for due to their versatility offensively. I really like the Clippers having DeAndre Jordan, who can match up with Dwight Howard about as well as anyone in the league.
Houston comes in overvalued due to its 3-0 start that has come against a pretty soft schedule. It has home wins over Charlotte and Dallas, as well as a road win at Utah thus far. Los Angeles' 126-115 home win over Golden State was impressive to say the least. I look for a similar result tonight.
The Clippers have won five of the last six meetings in this series. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|11-04-13||Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -10||Top||27-20||Loss||-107||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* Bears/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -10
Green Bay is once again showing that it is the deepest team in the league just as it did when it won the Super Bowl a few years back. Despite the losses of Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, James Jones and Jermichael Finley, the Packers have won four straight with three of those victories coming by 13 or more points. The other was a solid 19-17 road victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens.
The Packers have simply owned the Bears, winning six straight in this series while going 5-1 against the spread in the process. They have won five straight meetings with the Bears at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 in his career against Chicago and has completed 69.6 percent of his passes while throwing 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in the last four matchups.
Chicago will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler and middle linebacker Lance Briggs Monday. These losses really stack the deck against the Bears. The Packers have won 11 straight home games when you include playoffs while allowing an average of 14.7 points per game in the process. In their last five home games, the Packers have yielded only three field goals and no touchdowns in the first half. After giving up 45 points and 499 total yards to the Redskins last time out, the Bears will be in for a long day against this high-powered Green Bay offense.
What has made Green Bay's offense so dynamic this year is a new-found running game, which makes opposing defenses try and defend the entire field. The Packers have rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, including 180-plus in three of them. After giving up 209 rushing yards against the Redskins, the Bears are clearly soft through the middle of their defense due to injuries along the D-line and at linebacker.
The Bears are 0-7 against the spread versus good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game over the last two seasons. Green Bay is 35-16-2 against the spread in its last 53 home games overall. The Packers are 8-1 against the number in their last nine games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The Bears are 2-14 against the spread in their last 14 vs. NFC opponents. Green Bay is 26-9 against the number in its last 35 vs. NFC North foes. Bet Green Bay Monday.
|11-03-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5||Top||27-24||Loss||-110||39 h 58 m||Show|
20* Colts/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +2.5
Sure, the record says that the Houston Texans are just 2-5 on the season, but a closer look into the numbers shows that they are much better than their record would indicate. They rank 1st in the league in total defense at 267.7 yards per game allowed, and 8th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game. Their net yards gained versus their opponents of 113.4 yards per game is the best mark in the entire league. There could be a ton of value in backing this team going forward due to their poor overall record, and I believe that is certainly the case Sunday night.
Compare that to the Colts (5-2), who are actually getting outgained by 6.0 yards per game on the season, and we have a fraud here. Now, Indianapolis has lost leading receiver Reggie Wayne to a season-ending knee injury in the win over the Broncos last time out. His loss cannot be overstated as he has been one of the most productive receivers in league history. Andrew Luck has taken a particular liking to Wayne, especially in key third-down situations. Without him, this offense isn
|11-03-13||Phoenix Suns +13.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||96-103||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +13.5
The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued to open the 2013-14 season. They are perceived as rebuilding, but they have Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe carrying a new era in Phoenix.
As a 13-point underdog today, the Suns are obviously getting no respect from oddsmakers. They have opened 2-0 this year with wins over both the Blazers and Jazz. I like what I've seen from them thus far, and they should not be a 13-point dog to the Thunder.
Oklahoma City is not the same team it is when Russell Westbrook is healthy. We saw that in the playoffs last year, and we're seeing it in the early going. The Thunder barely beat the Jazz 101-98, and they were thoroughly dominated by the Timberwolves 81-100 last time out.
The Suns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Not surprisingly, all seven of those games have come without Russell Westbrook. Bet the Suns Sunday.
|11-03-13||Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots||Top||31-55||Loss||-115||35 h 54 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Patriots AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7
Sure, the Steelers are just 2-5 on the season, but when you look at the numbers it
|11-03-13||Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Oakland Raiders||49-20||Win||100||34 h 19 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +3
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly the worst home team in the league. They just cannot seem to perform well in front of the boo birds, losing a ridiculous 10 straight home games. They also clearly enjoy getting away from Philadelphia and all the negativity that comes with it.
Indeed, the Eagles are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on the road this season, which is where all three of their victories have come. They have wins at Washington (33-27), New York Giants (36-21) and Tampa Bay (31-20). Their only loss came at Denver (20-52) in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Eagles were only outgained 450-472 in that game, but they gave up two non-offensive touchdowns. Plus, everyone is getting blown out by Denver.
Oakland is one of the most overrated teams in the league. It was gift-wrapped wins by the Chargers and Steelers in two of its last three games with those teams combining for seven turnovers. The Raiders are going to get exploited this week simply because this is a terrible match up for them.
The Raiders rely heavily on the run, averaging 139 rushing yards per game compared to just 175 passing. Well, Philadelphia's strength defensively is against the run and its weakness is against the pass. The Eagles are only allowing 100 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry compared to 302 passing yards per game. Terrelle Pryor won't be able to exploit Philadelphia's weakness because he's a terrible passer.
I love that Nick Foles is getting the start this week as he has clearly been the most impressive of the three Philadelphia quarterbacks. Foles has appeared in five games, two as a starter, and has completed 52 of 90 passes for 622 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He shined against Tampa Bay on Oct. 13, going 22 of 31 for 296 yards with three touchdowns. He can also hand the ball off to LeSean McCoy, who leads the NFL with 733 yards rushing.
Amazingly, Philadelphia is just one game out of first place in the NFC East. So despite the struggles in recent weeks, it still has a ton to play for. Meanwhile, Oakland has no chance to catch Kansas City and Denver in the AFC West. It also has very small hope at getting a wild card spot in the AFC. So, from a mental perspective, I like Philadelphia's side better heading into this one.
Oakland is 3-14 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992. The Raiders are 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. The Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win. Oakland is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a S.U. win. Take the Eagles Sunday.
Note: While I recommend buying the Eagles to +3 if you have the option, I'd still play them at a lesser number.
|11-03-13||Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills +4||23-13||Loss||-115||31 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +4
With the new collective bargaining agreement, NFL teams don't hit in practice during the bye week. Players look at it as a bit of a vacation these days. It's kind of like a normal person's Friday before a vacation. How productive are you going to be on that Friday?
I believe the comparison is very real with NFL players. In fact, teams going into a bye week fail to cover the spread in roughly 59% of games over the past two seasons. This spot is especially tough for Kansas City given that it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Denver. It will be overlooking the Bills and looking ahead to the Bye Week and Denver.
I love what I've seen from Buffalo this season. Even in losing efforts, this team continues to battle. This team is 3-5 on the season, but three of those losses came by a touchdown or less, and the other were closer games than the final score would indicate in losses at Cleveland (24-37) and New Orleans (17-35).
I really like what I've seen from Buffalo at home. It has wins over an improved Carolina team and the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. Its only losses have come to New England (21-23) on a last-second field goal as a 10-point dog, and to Cincinnati (24-27) in overtime as a 5.5-point dog. As you can see, the Bills have been extremely competitive at home.
The Chiefs are clearly overvalued due to their 8-0 start, and that has started to show the past two weeks with unimpressive home wins against Houston (17-16) as a 7-point favorite and Cleveland (17-23) as a 7-point favorite. Alex Smith has just two touchdown passes and two interceptions over the last four weeks, and he just cannot deliver in the red zone as time and time again the Chiefs have to settle for field goals.
Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in November games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Kansas City is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following two consecutive home wins. The Chiefs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.
Buffalo is 8-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two years. The Bills are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. loss and 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Bills. Roll with Buffalo Sunday.
|11-03-13||Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers -7||10-34||Win||100||31 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -7
I believe the oddsmakers have set the line in the Carolina/Atlanta game at 7.5 begging bettors to take the hook on the Falcons. I'm going to see right through it and back the better team in this one as I fully expect the Panthers to roll to victory.
It's no fluke that Atlanta is 2-5 right now. It remains without its two starting wide receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones, and you just cannot replace that kind of production. The injuries on defense are getting overlooked, too. The Falcons are without DE Kroy Biermann and LB Sean Weatherspoon, who are not only two of their best players, but leaders on the stop unit as well. Adding insult to injury is that LB Stephen Nicholas is doubtful Sunday.
Offensively, Atlanta hasn't been able to run the ball, which just puts Matt Ryan under even more pressure than he already is without White and Jones. Atlanta has rushed for 58, 64, 18 and 27 yards in its last four games, respectively. Steven Jackson returned from injury last week, but it didn't matter as he was held to six years on 11 carries. The offensive line is beat up too, and it lost some key cogs from last year.
Defensively, Atlanta is giving up 26.3 points and 363.7 yards per game. There's no question that the Panthers, who are allowing just 13.7 points and 301.4 yards per game, have a huge edge on this side of the ball. Also, the Panthers average 129 rushing yards per game, and they'll be able to move the football against an Atlanta defense that is surrenering 4.6 yards per carry this season. The Falcons have given up 111-plus yards on the ground in four straight games, including 201 last week to Arizona, which isn't known for its running game like Carolina is.
Carolina is not only winning of late, it is absolutely dominating. It has won four of its last five games with the wins coming against New York (38-0), Minnesota (35-10), St. Louis (30-15) and Tampa Bay (31-13). While none of those teams are elite, the Falcons are literally as bad as all of them right now with the injuries they are going through. This is a broken football team, ladies and gents, and there's no quick fix.
Cam Newton is playing the best football of his career. Newton has a 77.3 completion percentage and a 130.3 passer rating during the three-game winning streak - both best in the NFL over the past three weeks - while throwing for 667 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. The Panthers get an extra three days of rest heading into this one after last Thursday's win over Tampa Bay, only further improving their chances to cover.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Carolina is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers beat last year's 13-3 Atlanta team 30-20 at home on December 9 behind 195 rushing yards and 280 passing yards. I expect an even bigger blowout this time around. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
Note: While I recommend buying the Panthers to -7 if you have the option, I'd still play them at -7.5 or -8.
|11-02-13||UTEP +47.5 v. Texas A&M||7-57||Loss||-106||26 h 3 m||Show|
15* UTEP/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Saturday Night BAILOUT on UTEP +47.5
The Texas A&M Aggies aren't going to be interested at all this week. The 1-6 UTEP Miners come to town as the Aggies step outside SEC play. Teams from power conferences that face a non-conference game late in the season always tend to overlook that opponent when it's a team the caliber of UTEP.
Texas A&M will be much more interested in its final three games of the season, which will be against Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri with perhaps a BCS bowl on the line. It has no interest in beating UTEP by 50 Saturday, which is why I fully expect it to call off the dogs late.
Sure, there's no question I expect this to be a blowout, but asking the Aggies to win by more than six touchdowns is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider how soft their defense has been all season, which will allow UTEP plenty of opportunities to score points in the second half to keep the final score within the number.
Indeed, Texas A&M is giving up 32.6 points and 473.7 yards per game to rank a woeful 108th in the country in total defense. UTEP has actually been a pretty solid offensive team, averaging 407.4 yards per game to rank a respectable 69th in total offense, which is right in the middle of the pack.
In fact, the Miners rank 26th in the country in rushing, averaging 211.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are terrible against the run, giving up 210.1 yards per game to rank 104th in rushing defense. Even if they're down big, they're still going to stick to the run because it's what they do. And they should continue to move it effectively once Texas A&M packs it in at halftime.
UTEP is 17-6 ATS in it last 23 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60-75%. Simply put, this line is too big for a disinterested Aggies team to cover. Roll with UTEP Saturday.
|11-02-13||Memphis Grizzlies v. Dallas Mavericks -2||Top||99-111||Win||100||16 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2
Both the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. However, there are two big advantages that the Mavericks have in this situation.
Dallas played in Houston last night, so it won't be a very long flight North back to Dallas. Memphis played at home last night, so it's definitely going to a long flight for the Grizzlies. Couple that with the fact that the Grizzlies played an overtime game against Detroit, and the advantage clearly goes to the Mavs in terms of rest and travel.
Coach Rick Carlisle did an excellent job of managing players' minutes last night, and it showed that this Dallas team is very deep. No player played more than 32 minutes last night, which was Monta Ellis, who is a young guard who can handle the load of playing a back-to-back. Nine different players played at least 13 minutes, and 11 players got into the game in all.
What I really liked to see was how well the bench performed. Gal Mekel had 11 points and six assists in 23 minutes, DeJuan Blair had 11 points and 10 rebounds in 18 minutes, and Jae Crowder had 15 points in only 13 minutes. Knowing that these bench players are capable of performing gives Carlisle a lot of options going into tonight. Plus, the Mavericks only shot 38.0 percent from the floor and still hung with the Rockets, only losing by a final of 105-113. That shows a a lot about this team as well.
Memphis has one of the worst benches in the entire league. As a result, six players were forced to play the majority of the minutes last night against Detroit. Five players played at least 32 minutes, while none of the other five players that played were able to contribute double-digit points. Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph each played 36-plus minutes against the Pistons. The Grizzlies simply rely too heavily on this trio, and that will take its toll tonight.
I just strongly feel that the Grizzlies were overrated coming into the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. They were gifted that trip to the conference finals thanks to an injury to Blake Griffin for the Clippers in the first round, and an injury to Russell Westbrook for the Thunder in the second. Their true colors showed in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Spurs in the West Finals.
After opening 0-2 ATS in 2013-14, it's clear that I was right when saying this team was overvalued. It still is overvalued as only a 2-point underdog to the Mavericks on the road tonight. Conversely, Dallas came into the season undervalued due to going 41-41 last season. But it was playing without Dirk Nowitzki for much of the year, and once he came back, the Mavericks went on a nice run just to get back to .500 on the season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. In fact, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the Mavericks and Grizzlies dating back to 2012. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games playing on 0 days' rest. The Mavericks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.
|11-02-13||Eastern Michigan +31 v. Toledo||16-55||Loss||-110||24 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Dirty Dog Dandy on Eastern Michigan +31
This number is simply way too big Saturday. The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan because it is 1-7 straight up and 1-7 against the spread on the season. That's exactly what we want because it has created unbelievable line value for us to cash in on this dirty underdog.
Eastern Michigan has lost two games this season by more than 31 points, which came at Penn State (7-45) and at Northern Illinois (20-59). After playing a team like Northern Illinois last week, which is unbeaten on the season, the Eagles will certainly be battle-tested and ready to stay within 31 points of Toledo, which is on a completely different planet than NIU.
This is a huge letdown spot for Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a last-second, come from behind 28-25 win at Bowling Green last week. That was a big win and gets the Rockets back in the hunt for a MAC Title. However, they'll be much more interested in next week's game against Buffalo, which is 4-0 in MAC play this year. As a result, they'll be overlooking Eastern Michigan enough this week to not cover.
Toledo has not won a game this season by more than 27 points. That 27-point victory came at home against Western Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in the entire country, and even worse than Eastern Michigan in my opinion. Its other four wins have come by 21, 12, 3 and 1 point. I've seen nothing from the Rockets that makes me believe they should be a 31-point favorite against any FBS opponent.
Eastern Michigan played Toledo extremely tough last year. It only lost 47-52 at home as a 15-point underdog. It amassed 624 total yards in defeat. With eight starters back from that offense, and Toledo only having four starters back from that defense, I fully expect this EMU offense to put up plenty of points to keep this game competitive for a second consecutive season.
The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Rockets are 1-5--1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.
|11-02-13||Tulane v. Florida Atlantic -2||Top||17-34||Win||100||23 h 45 m||Show|
25* Conference USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida Atlantic -2
Despite a 2-6 start, the Florida Atlantic Owls still have a legitimate shot to become bowl eligible. They play Tulane, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Florida International the rest of the way. That's a cake walk compared to the daunting schedule the Owls have faced to this point.
FAU has had to play both Auburn and Miami, which are two of the top teams in the country. They have also had road games against East Carolina and Rice, as well as home games against Marshall and Middle Tennessee. The other two games were road wins over South Florida (28-10) and UAB (37-23), which aren't great teams, but considering they were an underdog in both contests they were impressive.
Now, let's take a closer look at how much better Florida Atlantic is than its record would indicate. Indeed, the Owls have outgained four of their last five opponents, but managed just a 1-4 record. They lost in overtime to Middle Tennessee (35-42) despite outgaining it by 57 yards. They lost at Rice (14-18) despite outgaining it by 93 yards. They also lost at home to Marshall (23-24) despite outgaining it by 40 yards.
Sure, head coach Carl Pelini has resigned earlier this week due to using drugs, but a change could be just what the team needs. Offensive coordinator Brian Wright has been named interim coach for the remainder of the season. So many times, that first game under a new coach midseason ignites a fire into the players, and I believe that will be the case for FAU, too.
Now, let's look at Tulane, which has been the most lucky team in all of college football in 2013. It has posted a 6-2 record to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2002 after a 14-7 home win over Tulsa last week. After such a huge accomplishment for the program, it would only be human nature for the Green Wave to suffer a letdown this week.
Let's focus on the luck factor for a second. Amazingly, Tulane has been outgained in six of its eight games this season, which is the sign of a team that should 2-6 rather than 6-2. In fact, it is getting outgained 316.2 to 381.9 on the season. In their three most recent games, the Green Wave beat North Texas (24-21) despite getting outgained by 133 yards, beat East Carolina (36-33, OT) despite getting outgained by 233 yards, and beat Tulsa (14-7) despite getting outgained by 43 yards.
This team has been very fortunate in the turnover department, forcing a combined 13 turnovers over the last four games, in which they have obviously gone 4-0. FAU has been taking much better care of the football of late, committing just two turnovers in its last three games tonight. The Owls won't be giving away the same gifts that Tulane has been receiving in recent weeks, and as a result the better team will prevail Saturday.
Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Owls are 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. FAU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in its last game. These four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing Florida Atlantic. Plus, the Owls are 14-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, time and time again being undervalued. That's the case again this week. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|11-02-13||Kent State v. Akron -1.5||7-16||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
15* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -1.5
Akron should be a much bigger home favorite this week against Kent State. While both teams are 2-7 on the season, I have no doubt that Akron is the better team and it will show Saturday.
The Zips have suffered some brutal losses this season. They biggest was a 24-28 setback as a 35-point underdog at Michigan. It also lost 20-27 at Northern Illinois as a 24-point dog, and at home against LA Lafayette 30-35 as a 7-point dog. Those three teams really show what this team is capable of.
It's easy to see that Kent State is a terrible football team this season. That was evident right out of the gate in a 17-10 win over Liberty, which is one of its two wins this year. The other came against Western Michigan. A road loss to South Alabama (21-38) and home losses to Bowling Green (22-41) and Buffalo (21-41) are a true indicator of how bad the Flashes are this season.
This is a revenge game for Akron, which lost 24-35 at Kent State last season as an 18.5-point dog. The Zips lost despite outgaining the Flashes 442-364 for the game. Remember, this was a Kent State team last year that was an overtime loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC Title game away from playing in a BCS game. This year's version of the Golden Flashes is only a fraction of that team.
When you look at the numbers and who Kent State has faced, it's easy to see that they are a terrible football team. They only average 349 yards per game offensively against teams that average giving up 403 yards per game. They give up 471 yards per game defensively against teams that average 425 yards per game on offense. Akron has been better defensively than it gets credit for, allowing 417 yards per game against teams that average 437 yards per game.
The Golden Flashes are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. loss. Kent State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Take Akron Saturday.
|11-02-13||Northwestern +6 v. Nebraska||24-27||Win||100||20 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Northwestern +6
The Northwestern Wildcats were clearly overvalued coming into the season after last year's campaign in which they won 10 games and went 11-1-1 against the spread. Now, after losing four straight and six straight against the spread, they are back to being undervalued, and I'll gladly take advantage this week.
It's not like this team is much worse than last year's squad, but they just haven't been getting it done in close games. They had their chances to beat Ohio State, but eventually lost 30-40 in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate and could have gone either way. Since that defeat, they have suffered a 3-point loss to Minnesota and an overtime loss to Iowa.
I still have faith that Northwestern will rebound, and it starts this week as it wants huge revenge on Nebraska. Indeed, it will have no problem getting up for this game after blowing a late 12-point lead at home to the Cornhuskers last year to lose in the closing seconds by a final of 28-29. These teams also played a close game in 2011 with the Wildcats prevailing 28-25 on the road as a 17.5-point underdog.
The Cornhuskers have had their own problems this year as well. They just lost at Minnesota 23-34 last week, and they don't have an impressive win on their schedule yet. Their five wins have come against the likes of Wyoming, Southern Miss, South Dakota State, Illinois and Purdue. This is a definite step up in competition for them. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will be battle-tested after playing Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa already.
Northwestern has scored on 30 of its 31 trips inside the 20, with the resulting 96.8 percent success rate ranking second in the country behind Florida State. The Cornhuskers sport the second-worst red-zone defense in the conference (tied for 107th in the country), allowing opponents to score 90 percent of the time they drive inside the 20. Nebraska has allowed 44 runs of more than 10 yards and opponents are rushing for an average of 5.3 yards on first down
|11-02-13||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -4.5||Top||0-13||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Syracuse -4.5
This is the perfect storm with Wake Forest set up for a huge letdown spot, while Syracuse is going to be very hungry for a win this weekend. I'll lay the small number on the Orange because of it.
Wake Forest is coming off a narrow 21-24 loss at Miami last week. They led most of the way but just couldn't hold on in the fourth quarter with the win. Of course, the only reason that game was close is because the Hurricanes did not show up because they were looking ahead to Florida State this week.
Because the game against Miami was close, Wake Forest is getting more respect than it should from oddsmakers heading into Syracuse. And, because the Demon Deacons have Florida State on deck, that makes this a sandwich game for them. Just like the Hurricanes did last week, the Demond Deacons will likely be looking ahead to the Seminoles.
Now for Syracuse, which is coming off its worst loss of the season in a 0-56 setback at Georgia Tech. It has had a bye week since that defeat to correct mistakes and to steam over it. You can bet the Orange will be putting their best foot forward Saturday, which will be good enough to take care of business against Wake Forest, who will suffer a hangover from last week's loss to Miami.
Clearly, Wake Forest is not a very good team. It lost 7-56 at Clemson, and 10-24 at Boston College in two of its four road games this year. Syracuse has some impressive showings, winning 24-10 at NC State, beating Tulane at home 52-17, and losing at Penn State 17-23. I've seen enough from the Orange to know that the Georgia Tech loss was more of an aberration than anything.
Syracuse is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games versus poor rushing teams that average less than 120 yards per game. The Orange are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Orange are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss. Take Syracuse Saturday.
|11-02-13||Ohio State v. Purdue +32.5||56-0||Loss||-110||16 h 24 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +32.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are catching too many points at home Saturday against the Ohio State Buckeyes. While things have not gone as planned for Purdue this far, it has kept fighting. Now, this is its Super Bowl and a chance to compete against a Top 5 team in the country.
Purdue has played a couple of games this season that make me believe it can hang with the Buckeyes. It only lost 24-31 at home to Notre Dame as a 17-point underdog. It also only lost 0-14 at Michigan State as a 28-point dog last time out. It was only outgained by 68 yards by the Spartans behind a dominant defensive performance, limiting them to 294 total yards. This was a 7-0 game with 8:55 left to go in the 4th.
Now, with two weeks off since that game against Michigan State, Purdue is fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, Ohio State is tired after a brutal stretch which includes games against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State. Three of those games were decided by 10 points or less.
Sure, the Buckeyes blew out Penn State last week, but that's why I believe this line is inflated because the betting public has that blowout fresh in their minds. They are pounding the Buckeyes as a result, and I'll gladly play the role of contrarian here.
That's especially the case when you consider how tough Purdue has played Ohio State the past two seasons. Purdue beat Ohio State at home 26-23 in overtime in 2011 as a 7.5-point underdog. In 2012, the Boilermakers went into Ohio State and lost 22-29 as a 17-point dog in overtime. They actually outgained the Buckeyes 347-342 last year, limiting Braxton Miller to 9 of 20 passing for 113 yards and an interception, and 47 rushing yards on 12 carries.
The Boilermakers are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Purdue. Roll with the Boilermakers Saturday.
|11-01-13||USC +4.5 v. Oregon State||31-14||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* USC/Oregon State Pac-12 No-Brainer on USC +4.5
The Oregon State Beavers are in a bit of a letdown spot here tonight. They are coming off a hard-fought game against Stanford, losing by a final of 12-20 at home. They will have a hard time getting back up from the map after such a physical game and on a short week.
Stanford sacked Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion eight times in that contest to push its sack total to 27 on the season. That's number is the exact same amount of sacks (27) as USC has on the season behind the play of one of the most dominant defensive lines in college football.
USC has been a completely different team since interim coach Ed Oregeron took over for the fired Lane Kiffin three games ago. It has gone 2-1 with its only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. It has outgained each of its three opponents in the process, beating Arizona 38-31 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and topping Utah 19-3.
Last week, the Trojans held the Utes to just 201 total yards while forcing four turnovers. Oregon State beat Utah too, but it needed overtime to do so and gave up a whopping 539 total yards back on September 14. The Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to the easy schedule that they have faced outside of Stanford and Utah.
The other six opponents OSU has faced have been Eastern Washington, Hawaii, San Diego State, Colorado, Washington State and California. They lost to Eastern Washington, and only beat San Diego State 34-30. Meanwhile, USC has already played the likes of Utah State, Arizona State, Arizona, Notre Dame and Utah and have managed to get through that daunting slate at 5-3.
USC is giving up just 19.2 points and 317.2 yards per game this season to rank 11th in the country in total defense. It only gives up 106.0 yards rushing and 211.9 passing and will have an answer for Mannion tonight with its ability to get after the opposing quarterback. Offensively, the Trojans are expected to get back perhaps the best receiver in the country in Marqise Lee tonight, which will be a huge boost.
Plays on road underdogs (USC) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet USC Friday.
|11-01-13||Detroit Pistons +8 v. Memphis Grizzlies||108-111||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8
The Detroit Pistons are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. That was evident in their opener as they dismantled Washington 113-102 as only a 2.5-point home favorite. The Wizards are a hot pick this season to be much-improved, so it was a really good win.
I love what Detroit has done this offseason. It has brought in Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups and Brandon Jennings. While Jennings is out with an injury, the Pistons did not miss him much as they scored 113 points on 50% shooting. Will Bynum had 19 points while Billups scored 16 to lead the Pistons' backcourt.
But the real reason this team is going to be so tough going forward is the length of the three big men in Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Monroe and Drummond were already arguably the most underrated big man tandem in the league, and when you throw Smith into the mix, this is going to be a tough team to deal with. Monroe scored 24 points in the opener, while Smith (19) and Drummond (12) had solid games as well.
Conversely, I believe the Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams heading into 2013-14. That's because they made the Western Conference Finals last year. However, they were aided by an injury to Blake Griffin in their series win over the Clippers, and then Russell Westbrook missed the entire series in the Conference Semifinals for Oklahoma City.
Memphis' true colors showed in the conference finals as they were swept in four games by the Spurs. The Grizzlies did nothing to improve their team this offseason, especially offensively. They lost 94-101 to San Antonio in the opener in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they shot just 41.9 percent from the floor. Sure, Memphis is going to be a good defensive team again this season, but so is Detroit with their trio of big men.
Detroit is 72-49 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1996. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. Detroit is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. the Pistons are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 or more points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pistons. Take Detroit Friday.
|11-01-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics UNDER 188||105-98||Loss||-110||9 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 188
The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Both of these teams are going to be solid defensively this year, but each is also going to be terrible offensively. That couldn't have been more evident than in the openers for each on Wednesday.
Milwaukee lost 83-90 at New York in its opener while shooting just 45.9 percent from the floor. It did allow 50.7 percent shooting to the Knicks, but so for such a low-scoring game, that just shows the kind of slow pace they played at. Boston lost 87-93 at Toronto despite shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Again, it was such a low scoring game due to the slow pace.
Brad Stevens is the new head coach at Boston. At Butler in college, Stevens always got the most out of this teams behind a suffocating defense. He even took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Championship twice, which is simply remarkable. He did that despite having a below-average offensive team in terms of points per game because they played at such a slow pace and relied on defense.
Milwaukee boasts two of the best defensive big men in the league. Larry Sanders and John Henson have a ton of length and can alter shots as well as any tandem in the NBA. However, neither player is gifted offensively. So this is certainly going to be a defensive-minded Bucks team, especially after letting go of Monte Ellis and Brandon Jennings in the offseason.
Both teams have injuries to guards that are really going to hamper their offensive production in the early going, and force them to play at an even slower pace. Milwaukee is expected to be without starting point guard Brandon Knight and backup point guard Luke Ridnour, leaving the unproven Nate Wolters to handle the PG duties. Boston is without Rajon Rondo (knee), while backup PG Avery Bradley is questionable with a head injury.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. Had one of those games not gone to overtime, the UNDER would be 8-1. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six vs. NBA Central opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last five road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.