20* Bulls/Knicks ESPN National TV KNOCKOUT on Chicago -4

The Chicago Bulls are going to be the most improved team in the league this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight against the New York Knicks.  I fully expect the Bulls to go into Madison Square Garden and come away with a blowout victory.

Derrick Rose returns after playing in just 49 of 230 games over the past three seasons.  The Bulls also added Pau Gasol, European start Nikola Mirotic and college super scorer Doug McDermott to their roster this offseason.  They will now be one of the best offensive teams in the league while once again battling to be the top defense in the NBA as well.

The Knicks are in full-on rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs last year with a 37-45 record.  The Phil Jackson hire will help them long-term, but in the intermediate this simply is not a very good team even with Carmelo Anthony.  They lost Tyson Chandler, who was the only player on this team aside from Iman Shumpert who is a plus-defender.

New York is really going to struggle defensively this year without Chandler, but the bigger concern early is going to be the offense.  Jackson has hired Derek Fisher to run his patented Triangle Offense.  This system takes some time to get used to, and the Knicks will be all out of sorts in the opener, just as they were in the preseason when they went 3-4.

Chicago has gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 3-13 ATS in home games in the first half of the season dating back to last year.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* Giants/Royals Game 7 No-Brainer on Kansas City -123

What a series this has been.  It's fitting that we're going to a Game 7, and I expect the home team to take it down as the Royals feed off of the energy of their home crowd and come through with their first World Series title since 1985.

The Royals have shown a ton of resiliency this entire postseason.  They were down 7-3 to the A's in the wild card game through seven innings and came back and won.  They were down 3-2 facing elimination in Game 6 and responded with a 10-0 victory.  I really do believe this is a team of destiny this year.

The only reason this is a series is because Madison Bumgarner is one of the top postseason pitchers ever.  He has won two games for the Giants, while San Francisco is just 1-3 in games that he has not started.  Well, the good news is that Bumgarner won't be starting this game, though he may be available out of the bullpen.  Even if he comes in at some point, he is fatigued after pitching a complete game shutout on Saturday.

Jeremy Guthrie defeated Tim Hudson in Game 3 when he allowed two runs and four hits over five innings.  Guthrie has saved his best stuff for when the games have mattered most.  The right-hander is now 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last five starts, allowing just four earned runs over 30 1/3 innings.

Hudson has gone the other way down the stretch.  The right-hander is 0-5 with a 6.37 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing a whopping 29 earned runs over 41 innings.  He has given up three or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts.  Hudson has also found wins hard to come by in the postseason, going 1-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 13 career appearances (12 starts).

The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  San Francisco is 0-5 in Hudson's last five interleague starts.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven after scoring five or more runs in its previous game.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last six home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Guthrie's last five starts.  The Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie's last five interleague starts.  These six trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Kansas City.  Take the Royals in Game 7 Wednesday.

15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4

The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.

The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season.  Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year. 

Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well.  I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.

Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05.   Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league.  He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season.  Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.

Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener.  In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year.  They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They won a franchise-record 48 games and the Atlantic Division title.  They should be just as good if not better in 2014-15, and I believe they are undervalued here as only a 4.5-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.

Kyle Lowry signed a new $48 million deal this offseason after averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds last year.  DeMar DeRozan was an All-Start.  Toronto kept most of its roster in tact, but it also added Lou Williams and James Johnson to the team.  They'll serve as great role players as Williams is instant offense off the bench, while Johnson can do a little bit of everything.

Atlanta did make its seventh straight postseason appearance last year, which is the longest active streak in the Eastern Conference.    However, they barely snuck in, and I don't believe they did enough this offseason to improve their team.  All they did was get John Salmons and Thobo Sefolosha, who are two players far past their primes who won't contribute much.

The Raptors looked as good as anyone in the preseason as they put together a league-best 6-1 record.  I look for them to carry over that success in the regular season.  I truly believe that they are the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference this year and fully capable of giving any team a run for their money.

The home team went a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings between the Hawks and Raptors last season with the home team winning by 5 or more points in all four games.  I look for Toronto to make it five straight wins and covers for the home team in this series.  Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

20* Giants/Royals Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -138

I look for the Kansas City Royals to win Game 6 tonight and force a Game 7.  They return home where they have lost just one game this entire postseason.  Playing in front of their rowdy home fans will give them the confidence needed to get this win tonight and extend the World Series.

I like their edge on the mound in this one.  Yordano Ventura has gone 13-10 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 33 starts, including 5-7 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.243 WHIP In 17 home starts.  He gave up two runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 7-2 win over San Francisco in Game 2 after they had lost Game 1.

I'll gladly fade Jake Peavy, who is 8-14 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 35 starts this year.  Peavy has been at his worst on the road, going 5-9 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.298 WHIP over 19 starts.

Peavy allowed four earned runs over five innings of that 2-7 loss to the Royals and Ventura in Game 2.  He is 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Royals.  Peavy has allowed three earned runs or more in 10 of his last 11 starts against Kansas City, including four or more runs six times.

San Francisco is 3-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 18-5 in Ventura's last 23 starts overall.  Peavy is 19-34 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last two seasons.

Ventura is 9-0 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.  Ventura is 8-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season.  The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.  These five trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing Kansas City.  Bet the Royals in Game 6 Tuesday.

20* Mavericks/Spurs NBA Season Opener on Dallas +4

I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright.  I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.

Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year.  They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.

I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason.  It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back.  It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything.  Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.

I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason.  They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener.  I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.

One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight.  He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat.  He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks.  Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.

Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now.  They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills.  Splitter has a calf injury and will be out for this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.

Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

The Cowboys have been the biggest surprise in the NFL up to this point.  Nobody expected this team to start 6-1.  DeMarco Murray broke the NFL record for consecutive 100-yard rushing games to open the season.  He is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  As a result, Tony Romo has been much more efficient in the passing game.  The defense has even been better than expected.

With the world well aware of the Cowboys' success this year, oddsmakers have been forced to inflate their line this week against the Redskins.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  While they are certainly one of the better teams in the league, there are a few factors that show they aren't as good as their record would indicate.

The offense is dominant, and as a result, the defense has hardly seen the field.  The Cowboys are the third-best team in the league in terms of time of possession.  If the defense were on the field more often, that suspect unit would be giving up a lot more yards and points.  In fact, they haven't been much better on that side of the ball compared to last season, when they ranked last in the league in total defense.

Dallas gave up 6.1 yards per play in 2013 and it is giving up 6.1 yards per play in 2014.  It gave up 7.0 yards per passing attempt last year, and it is giving up 6.8 yards per attempt this year.  It allowed 4.7 yards per carry last year, and it is giving up 4.9 yards per rush in 2014.  It forced 1.75 turnovers per game last season, and it is getting 1.71 turnovers per game this season.

The key to stopping Dallas is making sure it does not keep the football for most of the game.  Washington has the power to do that behind a defense that ranks 12th in the league against the run in giving up 103.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  In fact, a closer look at the numbers shows that Washington is a much better team overall than its 2-5 record would indicate.

The Redskins rank an incredible 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 67.5 yards per game.  They trail only the Colts and Broncos in that category, which shows that they are right up there with two of the top teams in the NFL.  Furthermore, the Redskins rank 7th in the league in total defense (321.9 yards/game) and 5th in total offense (389.4 yards/game).  This team is much better than it is getting credit for as a 10-point underdog to the Cowboys.

I realize Colt McCoy is expected to start this game for Washington, but I'm not too concerned about it because Kirk Cousins was a turnover machine and can't be trusted.  McCoy impressed in leading the Redskins to a 19-17 victory over the Titans last week in a game they should have won by more.  They outgained the Titans by 115 yards in the game.  McCoy finished 11 of 12 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown after replacing Cousins.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough over the past few seasons.  In fact, it is a sensational 7-1 (88%) ATS against the Cowboys in the last eight meetings in this series.  It has only lost to the Cowboys by more than 3 points once during this stretch.  That was a 16-31 loss at Dallas last year when the Redskins simply gave that game away.  They actually outgained the Cowboys 433-213 for the game, but they turned the ball over twice and gave up an 86-yard punt return for a score.

The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas.  The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games.  Jason Garrett is 0-6 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 11-23 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1

The Saints clearly have not gotten off to the start they wanted to this season.  A lot of that has had to do with the scheduling as they have played four road games compared to two home games.  They are 0-4 on the road and 2-0 at home. 

Another reason has to do with the fact that they haven't been able to win close games as three of their losses have come by a combined six points.  The good news is that they are only one game back in the weak NFC South division, so all is not lost yet.  I still believe this team will win the division and be a factor in the playoffs.

Look for the Saints to come out highly motivated for a win Sunday as they host the Green Bay Packers and play inside the friendly confines of the Superdome.  I have no doubt that the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, and that's evident in the statistics. 

They rank 2nd in the league in total offense at 437.0 yards per game, and while their defense has taken a step back this year, they are still outgaining opponents by an average of 63.3 yards per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.  The defense has given up an average of 329.0 yards per game the last two weeks and will only get better as the season progresses.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home.  They are a combined 10-0 at home over the past two seasons.  Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 17-1-1 ATS at home dating back to 2011-12.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Saints as this short of a home favorite.  We'll take advantage this week.

The home team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being New Orleans' 34-27 win at Lambeau Field back in 2006.  Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.

While the Saints are better than their record, there's no question the Packers aren't as good as their 5-2 record would indicate.  They rank just 25th in the league in total offense at 325.4 yards per game and 19th in total defense at 362.7 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 37.3 yards per game, which is the 10th-worst mark in the NFL.

Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this season compared to 3-0 at home.  It has really been outplayed on the road this season despite the 2-2 record.  It is only gaining 301.2 yards per game on offense while giving up 399.0 yards per game on defense.

As you can see, it is getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game away from home this year.  It needed a last-second touchdown to beat Miami, and it was outgained by the Bears by 140 total yards in its 38-17 victory.  It also lost to the Seahawks by 20 and the Lions by 12 in its first two road games.

The Packers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers here because they have won and covered in four consecutive games.  Keep in mind that this stretch of games has featured wins over the Bears, Vikings, Dolphins and Panthers, and none of those teams have better than a .500 record. 

The betting public has been all over the Packers, too.  They'll continue to ride them because they have been good to them, which is why this is only a 1-point spread as the books know the public will be on Green Bay again, so they have over-adjusted the line.  That has provided us with some serious line value here on the Saints.

Payton is 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 14-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games overall.  The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Royals/Giants Game 5 No-Brainer on Kansas City +146

What a series it's been thus far between the Royals and Giants.  I look for Kansas City to take control with a Game 5 victory at an excellent price of +146.  Madison Bumgarner is simply overvalued here because he has had a strong postseason up to this point, while James Shields has not.

Shields is now 15-9 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 38 starts this season.  The best part about backing Kansas City's ace here is that he has been at his best on the road.  Indeed, the right-hander is 10-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 20 road starts this year.

Bumgarner has continued his superb pitching in the postseason, and he's now 21-11 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 38 starts.  However, the left-hander has been at his worst at home, going 7-7 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 17 starts.

Shields is 10-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  Shields is 8-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Shields is 9-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.  The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight games as a road underdog. 

These four trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing Kansas City.  Also, the Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road underdog, 23-4 in Shields' last 27 road starts, and 13-1 in Shields' last 14 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 6-13 in Bumgarner's last 19 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.  Bet the Royals in Game 5 Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7

The Cleveland Browns have no business being this heavily favored against any team in the league. I said that last week when I backed the Jaguars as 6-point home underdogs, and they came through and won outright 24-6 over the Browns. I’m saying it again this week. Even though it’s the winless Raiders, the Browns are clearly overvalued here. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much.

One big reason why Cleveland could be in line for a tough stretch is that it recently lost center Alex Mack to a season-ending leg injury. He was the heart and soul of this offense, and even quarterback Brian Hoyer said that you don’t replace a guy like Mack heading into the Jacksonville game. Center is the most underrated position in the NFL because he calls out all of the blocking assignments.

Cleveland had been one of the best rushing teams in football prior to Mack going down with an injury. His loss was felt against the Jaguars as the Browns managed a measly 69 rushing yards on 30 carries for an average of 2.3 yards per attempt. Even Brian Hoyer had an awful game, going just 16-of-41 passing for 215 yards with an interception. The Browns were held to 266 total yards, and head coach Mike Pettine admitted that he contemplated replacing Hoyer with Johnny Manziel against the Jaguars last week.

Cleveland has played in a bunch of close games this year as four of its six games have been decided by a field goal or less. It is going to have a hard time blowing out teams due to a defense that has not been very good at all this year. The Browns are giving up 23.2 points and 394.8 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.

The Browns rank last in the league against the run, giving up a whopping 155.5 yards per game on the ground.  The Raiders averaged the fewest rushing yards (69.3 RYPG) this season, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they've been playing from behind.  Look for head coach Tony Sparano to be sure that Darren McFadden gets more carries in this one.  He rushed for 89 yards on 14 attempts against San Diego and 48 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown against Arizona the past two weeks.  He just needs more touches and should get them this week.

I’m a realist, and I realize that Oakland is probably the worst team in the league, but I have been impressed with Derek Carr’s development as the season has gone on. He is more than capable of putting up solid numbers against this soft Cleveland defense. He had his best game against the Chargers two weeks ago when he threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns. He and the rest of these Raiders are highly motivated to pick up their first win of the season, and this is one of their best chances yet to do so.

"Nobody is handed the trophy at the end of six weeks," Sparano said. "In my mind, we have 10 games to go right now. I've seen teams get into this tournament with eight wins, with nine wins, whatever the case is.

"That isn't really our concern right now. Our concern is getting one win and winning the next game. That really has to be our focus, because if we look at the picture down the road right now, the parade might pass us by."

"We're building," defensive end Benson Mayowa said. "Every week we come in and we're building; we're getting close. We just have to get a W, and that's what we're going to do."

The Browns are 0-7 ATS versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the past two seasons. Oakland is a very profitable 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Raiders are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games following a non-conference game. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Raiders to +7 if you have the option but would still take them at +6 or better if you don't.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -5

I just cannot foresee the defending Super Bowl champs losing three straight games. They were dealt a big distraction last week heading into their showdown with St. Louis as Percy Harvin was traded late in the week to the Jets. It caught most of the Seattle players by surprise as they said so afterwards. Even wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who allegedly had a run-in with Harvin, was caught off guard by it. He said it was certainly a distraction, but also that there was no excuse for the 26-28 loss to the Rams.

St. Louis was aided by an 90-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 75-yard kickoff return, and a fake punt in the fourth quarter as special teams was the difference in the game. The Seahawks actually dominated the box score and should have won. They outgained the Rams by 191 total yards for the game as they racked up 463 yards of offense in their best output of the season on that side of the ball.

The offense has been carrying the load this season in averaging 26.5 points and 357.0 yards per game.  You can bet the defense is going to put this game on their shoulders after giving up an average of 29.0 points per game the past two weeks in losses to the Cowboys and Rams. I still believe this is one of the best stop units in the league, and I fully expect that to be on display against the Panthers, just as it was last year.

Seattle beat Carolina 12-7 on the road last season in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Seahawks outgained the Panthers 370-253 for the game, or by 117 total yards. Russell Wilson went 25 of 33 passing for 320 yards and a touchdown in the win, while the defense limited Cam Newton to 16 of 23 passing for 125 yards and a score.

The Panthers are clearly down this season. They have won just one of their last five games overall while giving up an average of 34.8 points per game in the process. They have allowed 37 or more points in four of their last five games as well. They currently rank 29th in the league in scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and 29th in total defense (388.3 YPG). They clearly miss suspended DE Greg Hardy as well as three of four starters from their secondary who departed this offseason.

Offensively, Cam Newton is simply being asked to do too much.  The Panthers have been decimated by injuries at running back with both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert out.  Now, the offensive line is a mess.  Rookie guard Trai Turner is out with a sprained knee and ankle, while tackle Byron Bell (elbow) and guard Amini Silatolu (calf) are listed as questionable.

Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Seahawks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Seahawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after giving up more than 30 points in their previous game. Pete Carroll is 8-0 ATS after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 16-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Seahawks.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Royals/Giants Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +118

The Kansas City Royals picked up picked up two huge wins in a row since losing Game 1 to take control of this series.  Their bullpen didn't allow a single hit over four innings to preserve yet another one-run victory last night.  I look for that bullpen to play a vital role in the Royals taking Game 4 tonight as they step on the throats of the Giants.

Jason Vargas is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  The left-hander has gone 12-10 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 32 starts.  However, he has been at his best on the road, going 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Vargas has posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco as well.

Ryan Vogelsong is getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one because he has posted a solid ERA in the postseason through his career.  The right-hander isn't as good as Vargas, though, going 8-13 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in 34 starts.  Vogelsong is also 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  He allowed four earned runs and nine base runners over three innings in his last start against St. Louis in the NLCS.

The Royals are now 10-1 in the playoffs and cannot be stopped.  Their confidence is through the roof, and they have the Giants on their heels.  Kansas City is 51-24 in its last 75 games overall, and 39-18 in its last 57 road games.  The Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 interleague road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 in its last eight games as a road underdog.  The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Royals in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -13.5

Quietly, the Buckeyes have gone 5-1 against the spread this season. They continue to be a covering machine under Urban Meyer and are currently playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They need to keep packing on style points if they want to make the four-team playoff because the 21-35 home loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 is hard for the playoff committee to forget.

The Buckeyes have been doing their best in trying to make everyone forget about that Virginia Tech game, though. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 22-plus points. They beat Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28) and Rutgers (56-17) at home, while also dominating Maryland (52-24) on the road.  They are outscoring opponents 56-17 during this stretch.

Ohio State’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. It has scored 50-plus in five straight games and is now averaging 46.5 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. Meyer is proving that he is a quarterback genius once again. J.T. Barrett has put up Heisman-like numbers in recent weeks. He is now completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,615 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 383 yards and four scores on the season.

Penn State played well en route to a 4-0 start against a very soft schedule, but it has been exposed in its last two games. It lost at home to Northwestern 6-29 back on September 27th and followed that up with a 13-18 road loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions were held to just 266 yards against the Wildcats and 214 yards against the Wolverines. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes in this one.

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Penn State. Last year, it stormed out to a 42-7 lead by halftime against the Nittany Lions and cruised to a 63-14 victory. The was the worst loss in Penn State history.  The Buckeyes outgained them 686-357 for the game. They held Christian Hackenberg to 12 of 23 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.

The Buckeyes are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 conference games. Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Buckeyes are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Alabama -17

The Crimson Tide finally lived up to their potential last week and took care of Texas A&M 59-0. I believe this will be a sign of things to come for them because the fact of the matter is that they have the most talented team in the country. Some of that talent is young, so it took a while for the Crimson Tide to gel. There may be no stopping this team the rest of the way, especially Saturday against an overmatched Tennessee squad.

The Volunteers have played their two worst games against the two best teams they have faced, and I don’t believe they have gone up against a team as strong as Alabama yet. They lost 10-34 at Oklahoma early in the season as 16-point underdogs. Then they were beat down by Ole Miss 3-34 last week as 15-point dogs. They only managed 191 total yards against the Rebels last week and committed four turnovers.

Tennessee clearly lacks the offensive firepower needed to keep up with a team like Alabama. It is only averaging 24.4 points and 325.1 yards per game on the season. Alabama is putting up 36.9 points and 510.7 yards per game, and as I’ve stated before, this may be the best offense they've had in school history.

Also, Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley suffered a shoulder injury late in the Ole Miss game last week and was forced to miss the rest of the game. If he can’t go, or if he’s limited at all, the Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close. They have a good defense, but that’s not going to be enough to make up for the lack of offense.

To say this had been a one-sided series in recent years would be a gross understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee, outscoring the Vols by an average of 25 points per game in the process. Six of those victories have come by 20 points or more, and the last four have come by 31-plus. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Knoxville.

Plays on a road team (ALABAMA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tennessee is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Vols are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +24

The Missouri Tigers come into this game against Vanderbilt way overvalued due to their 42-13 win at Florida last week.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it should have been impossible for them to win by that much.  They only gained 119 yards of total offense and had one offensive touchdown.  They scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams, which is unheard of.

Simply put, Missouri cannot rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns, and they don't have the offense to put away Vanderbilt by 24-plus points this week.  Missouri ranks 118th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense this season, averaging just 323.7 yards per game.  The Tigers will be lucky to score 24 points in this one, let alone win by more than 24.

Vanderbilt opened the season with a pair of blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss and has been undervalued since.  It has gone a profitable 3-2 ATS since.  The Commodores only lost by 14 to South Carolina as a 22.5-point underdog, 10 to Kentucky as a 17-point road underdog, and 27 to Georgia as a 33-point road dog.

That's the same Georgia team that beat Missouri on the road 34-0 a couple weeks back.  Also, South Carolina should have beat Missouri, but gave up a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 20-21.  Indiana also went into Missouri and came away with a 31-27 victory.  This Missouri team simply is not that good, yet it is getting treated like one of the better teams in the country with this 24-point spread.  The Tigers are actually getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Commodores are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by 6 points or less.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games after the first month of the seaosn over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +22.5

TCU has been the most underrated team in the country up to this point. Sharp bettors have been backing them relentlessly as their lines every week move in their direction. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up to how good this team has been up to this point, which is why the Horned Frogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

While I’ll admit that TCU is one of the best teams in the land, the odds have finally caught up to them this week. They opened as 21-point favorites and have been bet up to 22.5 in most places as the public is all over them after realizing that they have covered every spread thus far. They are simply laying too many points here to Texas Tech, and the value is clearly with the road underdog in this one.

The two blowout losses that the Red Raiders have suffered this season have come against run-heavy teams in Arkansas (28-49) and Kansas State (13-45). They have held their own against the rest of their opponents. They only lost 35-45 to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point road underdogs. They blew a big lead and let West Virginia escape with a 37-34 road win as the Red Raiders were 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

Texas Tech has the kind of offense that will put up points on TCU and keep it within the number. It is averaging 30.9 points and 488.3 yards per game this season. Davis Webb is having another monster season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,239 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

TCU hasn’t faced many elite offenses this season aside from Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma put up 33 points and 461 total yards against TCU, including 309 passing. Baylor put up 61 points and 782 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including 510 through the air. Webb should be primed for a big day in this one.

The last three meetings between TCU and Texas Tech have all been decided by 10 points or less. Texas Tech is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +28

The betting public is all over Marshall right now due to its 7-0 start and 5-1-1 ATS mark this season.  It has covered the spread in five straight games coming in.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line 7-10 points higher than it should be to try and draw even action on both sides knowing that the public is going to be all over Marshall again this week.  I'll take advantage and back the road dog in this one.

Florida Atlantic is a quality team that is fully capable of keeping this game within four touchdowns.  In fact, I believe this one will go right down to the wire.  The Owls suffered blowout losses to both Nebraska and Alabama on the road to open the season, but have been much more competitive since.  They have beaten the likes of Tulsa, UTSA and Western Kentucky, and they only lost by one at Wyoming.

Sure, there is one result that is going to stick in the minds of some people and question Florida Atlantic's talent.  They went on the road and lost 10-38 at Florida International a few weeks back despite being a 6.5-point favorite.  However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Owls actually outgained the Panthers 383-345 for the game.  That yardage differential wouldn't normally lead to a 28-point loss, but the Owls committed four turnovers.  I believe that effort was more of an aberration than anything.

Last year, Florida Atlantic lost 23-24 at home to Marshall as a 10-point underdog in a game it should have won.  It actually outgained the Thundering Herd 400-355 for the game.  The Owls held star quarterback Rakeem Cato to just 18 of 34 passing for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss.  They want revenge from that one-point defeat, and I just cannot foresee them getting blown out by four-plus touchdowns in the rematch a year later.

Florida Atlantic is a sensational 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Florida Atlantic is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry Play on Michigan +17

Let's just start out by saying that this is the most Michigan State has ever been favored in this history of this series.  This is a lot of points for the Spartans to be laying in a rivalry game. I know that they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but anything can happen in these rivalry games.

This line is a bit inflated due to Michigan State’s blowout win over Indiana last week. The Spartans actually trailed in the second quarter before scoring on six straight possessions to win 56-17.  However, they had an easy path to victory due to a soft Indiana defense, but also an Indiana offense that was missing starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

I like Michigan’s mental and physical state coming into this game. This is a chance for the Wolverines to turn their season around with an upset win, and motivation will not be a factor against their rivals in this one. Also, the Wolverines have two full weeks to prepare for Michigan State, which is a huge advantage. They should be in a good frame of mind after showing a lot of guts last time out in beating Penn State 18-13.

This Michigan team is not as bad as its 3-4 record would indicate. It has actually outgained five of its seven opponents on the season, which is more of a sign of a 5-2 team rather than one that is 3-4. The Wolverines are giving up just 21.4 points and 301.0 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Their stop unit is good enough to keep this Michigan State offense in check, which should help it cover the 17-point spread.

While Michigan State also has one of the top defenses in the country, surrendering 292.7 yards per game, this stop unit has looked vulnerable at times. The Spartans allowed 46 points to Oregon and 31 to Purdue. They are giving up 21.6 points per game this season against a relatively soft schedule. Michigan has played a much more difficult slate of games, which makes its defensive numbers that much more impressive.

After winning five of the last six meetings in this series, I could easily see Michigan State overlooking Michigan and looking ahead to its next game against Ohio State.  I actually believe this game means more to the Wolverines, and quarterback Devin Gardner hasn't been shy about it.  "We're not thinking about ruining their season," Gardner said. "This is about us. I want to win this game as bad as I've wanted to win any game."

Even Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook believes this is going to be a close game, because it normally is no matter the circumstances.  "We could be 0-5 going into the game, they could be No. 1 in the country and it's going to be a tight game. You have that with rivalry games," said Cook. "I don't think we overlook them at all, and I don't think they overlook us."

Brady Hoke is 15-2 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game in all games he has coached. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. The Spartans are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan State had been undervalued in this head-to-head rivalry over the past seven seasons. Now, those roles are reversed and Michigan isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a 17-point underdog heading into the 2014 meeting.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Jose State +9

I have been very impressed with how well San Jose State has played in its last three games following blowout road losses to both Auburn and Minnesota, who each have just one loss on the season.  I believe the Spartans are fully capable of staying within single-digits of Navy, and they will have a great chance of pulling off the upset Saturday as well.

Sure, they did lose 10-21 to Nevada at home, but a closer look at the box score shows that they dominated that game and should have won.  They outgained the Wolf Pack 446-256 for the game, or by 190 total yards.  They went on to outgain UNLV 542-221 in a 33-10 home win and to outgain Wyoming 471-277 in a 27-20 (OT) road win.

In these three games, they have averaged 486.3 yards per game and have given up 251.3 yards per game, outgaining their opponents by an average of 235 yards per game.  If that's not domination, I don't know what is.  So, they are playing their best football of the season heading into the Navy game and should be getting more respect from oddsmakers.

Navy is just 3-4 on the season and clearly down this year.  It has lost to Ohio State by 17, Rutgers by 7, Western Kentucky by 9 and Air Force by 9.  Its three wins have come against Temple by 7, Texas State by 14 and VMI by 37.  Really, the only Navy blowout this season came against VMI, which was expected because the Midshipmen were 38-point favorites.  The Midshipmen only outgained Texas State by 27 total yards and shouldn't have won by 14.

This will be the fourth meeting between these teams over the last four years.  The first three have all been close with SJSU winning 27-24 at home in 2011, SJSU winning 12-0 on the road in 2012, and Navy winning 58-52 (OT) in 2013.  The Spartans have really dominated the box score in all three games, outgaining the Midshipmen by 121 total yards in 2011, 244 total yards in 2012, and 122 total yards in 2013.  Expect SJSU to hold its own in the box score again in this one and for the game to go right down to the wire.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN JOSE ST) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) are 59-22 (72.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Navy is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  SJSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  SJSU is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 road games overall.  Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina +7

North Carolina finds itself in pretty much the exact same position as last season.  Last year, it bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win six of its final seven games capped by a bowl victory.  The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week.

Perhaps the real turning point came a week earlier when the Tar Heels went into Notre Dame and gave the previously unbeaten Fighting Irish all they wanted and more.  They only lost that game 43-50 as 16.5-point underdogs.  We all saw that Notre Dame probably should have beat defending champion Florida State on the road last week, so that 7-point loss to the Irish was nothing to laugh about.

Obviously the Tar Heels have a terrible defense and are being asked to put up big numbers offensively to stay in games, which is a concern.  The thing is that they are fully capable of winning shootouts, which they showed last week against Georgia Tech.  They are averaging 38.7 points and 452.3 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,776 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also pacing the team with 448 rushing yards and four scores.

Virginia is a team that I had pegged as underrated coming into the year, and that has proven to be the case.  The Cavaliers have opened 4-3 and will push for a bowl game this year.  However, their four wins have come against the likes of Richmond, Louisville, Kent State and Pittsburgh all at home.  Plus, those two wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh came by a combined 7 points.

I believe the Cavaliers are now overvalued heading into this game, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown over the Tar Heels to beat us is asking too much.  They don't exactly have the most explosive offense.  If you take out the Richmond and Kent State wins, they have only topped 24 points one time in their other five games.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years.  North Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Virginia with wins by 31, 24, 11 and 34 points, respectively.  The Tar Heels are outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 25 points per game in the last four meetings.  The beat the Cavaliers 45-14 at home last year as 11.5-point favorites.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. incredible offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Again, the Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing UNC.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +20

This is a very big number that the books are asking the Cornhuskers to cover. While I’m not going to say Rutgers is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, I certainly believe they are better than they get credit for. They have shown that by going 5-2 already this season despite having their win total set at roughly 3.5 games coming into the year. This team is no joke, but they are getting treated like it with this line.

The reason this line is so big is because Nebraska blew out Northwestern by 21 points on the road last week, while Ohio State blew out Rutgers by 39 points at home. Those results have created some serious line value here on the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern actually held a 17-14 lead at halftime over Nebraska before laying down after intermission. Ohio State is rolling everyone right now, so that 39-point win isn’t that much of a surprise.

Rutgers had been 5-1 prior to the Ohio State game with its only loss coming to Penn State by a field goal. It had beaten the likes of Washington State, Navy and Michigan. What I like about this Rutgers team is that it has a very good defensive line that won’t be overmatched by Nebraska’s offensive line. The Huskers have taken advantage of a schedule that has featured several overmatched defensive lines outside of Michigan State. That’s why Ameer Abdullah is having such a big season to this point.

Rutgers has a better offense than it is getting credit for. It is putting up 27.7 points and 415.0 yards per game against opponents that are only giving up 26.6 points and 368 yards per game. Quarterback Gary Nova is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.

After covering five straight games coming in, the Huskers are simply overvalued here. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rutgers is 16-5 ATS-1 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State -7

I have been very impressed with the Boise State Broncos (5-2) in their first season under Bryan Harsin. One of their two losses this season came against Ole Miss, which is a national title contender. That was a 7-6 game entering the fourth quarter as the Broncos proved they could play with one of the best teams in the country.

Sure, they lost 14-28 to Air Force, but the Falcons are improved this season. Also, there’s no way the Broncos should have lost that game because they outgained them by 132 yards for the game.  They also committed a ridiculous seven turnovers to give the game away.

Statistically, Boise State is one of the most dominant teams in the country. It has only been outgained in one game this season, and that was by just 59 yards against Ole Miss. It has outgained its other six opponents. It has outgained five of those teams by 108 yards or more. On the season, it is outgaining the opposition by an average of 119.1 yards per game.

Boise State is averaging 485.0 yards per game of offense against teams that are giving up 402 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are limiting teams to 365.9 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 405 yards per game of total offense. To compare, BYU is giving up 388 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 355 yards per game on offense.

Since losing star quarterback Taysom Hill midway through the Utah State game on October 3rd, the Cougars haven’t been the same team. They went on to lose to Utah State 20-35 at home, to UCF 24-31 on the road, and to Nevada 35-42 at home. I would certainly argue that Boise State is better than all three of those teams, which is why it should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown to cover the spread Friday night.

Hill was the one player that BYU could not replace. He made them an outside contender for the four-team playoff in all honesty as they had a great shot to run the table with him at the helm. Backup Christian Stewart is only completing 55.0 percent of his passes compared to Hill’s 67.2 percent. Stewart only has 110 rushing yards while averaging 3.1 per carry, compared to Hill’s 463 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry.

As losses in each of their last three games have shown, the Cougars are only an average team without Hill running the show.  While the offense clearly hasn't been as good without Hill, the BYU defense may be just as big of a concern.  The Cougars have allowed 31 or more points in four straight games.  It's not like they have faced elite offenses, either.  

I wouldn't consider Virginia, Utah State, UCF or Nevada elite.  However, I would consider Boise State's offense elite as it has scored 34 or more points on five different occasions this year.  Another thing to consider here is that BYU has turned the ball over two or more times in all but one game this season.  They are very careless with the football with 16 turnovers this season, which is another reason this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Boise State is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after playing its last game at home. Boise State is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Broncos are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Royals/Giants Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +119

The Royals were finally put to the test in seeing how they would respond following a loss.  They had not lost in the postseason up to that point.  Facing an 0-2 deficit and the series likely being over, the Royals responded in a big way.  They hammered their way to seven runs in a 7-2 victory to even the series at 1-1.

That kind of win for Kansas City will give it a ton of confidence heading into Game 3 in San Francisco.  A big reason I liked the Royals to win this series was because I believe they have the edge in the starting rotation and the bullpen outside of Madison Bumgarner, who has been a beast for the Giants.

Jeremy Guthrie had a solid season this year at 13-11 with a 4.03 ERA.  However, I have been really impressed with what he has done down the stretch when these games have mattered most.  Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just two earned runs and 21 base runners over 25 1/3 innings.  He gave up one run over five innings in his lone postseason start against Baltimore during this stretch.

Tim Hudson has posted better numbers than Guthrie, going 9-13 with a 3.55 ERA this season, but keep in mind that he pitches in the National League and is not the better starter because of better numbers.  Hudson has been at his worst at home, going 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA.  In his last postseason start, he gave up four earned runs and a homer over 6 1/3 innings against the Cardinals.

Hudson faced the Royals this year, giving up three earned runs over six innings of a 5-0 loss at Kansas City on August 9th.  Guthrie didn't allow a single earned run over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against San Francisco, which was on the road.  I look for this game to be close by the time these starters exit, and then the edge goes to the Royals' bullpen, which has been virtually unhittable in the postseason.

Guthrie is 9-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 54-32 (+21.7 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Royals are 9-1 in the playoffs.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Royals are 4-0 in Guthrie's last four starts.  Kansas City is 30-14 in Guthrie's last 44 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 0-4 in Hudson's last 4 interleague starts.  Take the Royals in Game 3 Friday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Denver -8.5

I wrote last week about how San Diego had faced the easiest schedule in the league, which was a big reason for its 5-1 start to the season. I really do not believe this team is as good as its record would indicate, and that it will be overmatched against the best team in the NFL in the Broncos in this one.

Perhaps the biggest reason I’m taking Denver Thursday is that San Diego is really banged up right now. It was already without a couple starters on defense in Melvin Ingram and Manti Te’o. Then, last week the Chargers were missing Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder), their top two cornerbacks.

Flowers, who has played at a Pro Bowl level this season, has been ruled out due to his concussion suffered against Kansas City on Sunday.  Verrett, who is in the early discussion for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, is listed as questionable.  As of Wednesday, a source close to the situation viewed Verrett as a longshot to play due to his shoulder injury.  The Chargers will have to turn to their two starters from last year in Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright, who were two of the least effective corners in the league.

That’s bad news for San Diego, which will be up against the record-setting Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos are averaging 31.5 points per game, 299 passing yards per game, and 8.5 yards per attempt. Manning is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,848 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season. He has put up those numbers against a very tough schedule and some of the best defenses in the league in the likes of the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets & 49ers.

San Diego has put up good numbers defensively this year, but that has a lot more to do with the schedule than actually being a good defense. Sure, it opened with Arizona and Seattle, but then played Buffalo, Jacksonville, New York (Jets), Oakland and Kansas City the next five weeks. I wouldn’t consider any of those teams to be elite offensively. This defense is likely to be in for a rude awakening this week, especially with all of the injuries.

Denver’s defense did not perform all that great in the first three weeks of the season. However, this revamped stop unit has really picked it up of late. The Broncos have won their last three games all by 14 points or more largely due to the defense. They allowed 20 points and 215 total yards in a 21-point win over Arizona, 17 points and 204 total yards in a 14-point win over the Jets, and 17 points and 310 total yards in a 25-point win over the 49ers.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 316.8 yards per game.  They also rank 4th in total offense at 394.0 yards per game.  That puts them at 2nd in the league in yardage differential as they are outgaining teams by a whopping 77.2 yards per game.  With the schedule they have faced, this is easily the best team in the NFL.

Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. The Broncos are 49-28 ATS in their last 77 home games against a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Broncos Thursday.

25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +3

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Virginia Tech as an underdog in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has gone 133-37 at home in his 28 seasons with the program. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Hokies one of the best home-field advantages in the nation. I don’t believe that home stadium is getting enough credit here with the Hokies listed as the underdogs.

Virginia Tech is a much better team than its 4-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses this year have come by a touchdown or less, while all four of its wins have come by 14 points or more. That includes perhaps the most impressive win of the season in all of college football. The Hokies went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory as 10-point underdogs back on September 6th.

Miami is every bit as bad as its 4-3 record would indicate. It is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, losing all three road games by double-digits to Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28). The Hurricanes have no business being the favorite in this contest when you look at their home/away discrepancy. Al Golden is just 18-33 on the road as a head coach, including 8-11 at Miami.

Brad Kaaya is the future of Miami at quarterback.  He is a very talented player, but has done most of his damage at home this year.  Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home, compared to five TDs and six picks on the road.  Also, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has scored all six of his touchdowns at home.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series with Miami in recent years, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. It has won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points. Last year, the Hokies won 42-24 at Miami as 4.5-point underdogs. They dominated that game from start to finish, outgaining the Hurricanes 550-352 for the game. I look for this VA Tech defense to shut them down again.

The Hokies have one of the best stop units in the country. They are allowing just 20.0 points and 326.0 yards per game to rank 20th in total defense. What is most impressive about that is the fact that the Hokies’ seven opponents played so far are averaging 33.1 points and 435 yards per game on offense, so they are holding them 13.1 points and 109 yards per game below their season averages.

Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Virginia Tech is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 Thursday games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* UConn/East Carolina ESPNU Thursday No-Brainer on Connecticut +28

East Carolina is clearly overvalued right now after its impressive start to the season. It has beaten the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while only losing to South Carolina by 10. It covered the spread in each of its first four games, and that was the point it started to become overvalued.

The Pirates failed to cover the spread the following week as 38-point favorites in a 21-point home win over SMU. As you probably know, SMU may be the worst team in the entire country. Then, last time out, they only won by 11 at South Florida as 16.5-point favorites. Now the books are asking the Pirates to win by four-plus touchdowns over the Huskies to beat us, and that’s simply asking too much.

Connecticut has played some very good teams, and it has yet to lose a game by four-plus touchdowns. It lost by 25 to BYU in the opener back when the Cougars had Taysom Hill and were rolling everyone. It also only lost to Boise State by 17 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Huskies were only outgained by the Broncos 290-292 for the game.

In fact, the Huskies have only been outgained by more than 85 yards in two of their six games this season.  They have not been outgained by more than 158 yards in any game, and that effort came in the 25-point loss to BYU in the opener.  To win this game by more than four touchdowns, the Pirates are likely going to have to outgain the Huskies by 200-plus yards, and I just don't see that happening.

What gives the Huskies a chance to keep this game close is a defense that has played very well this season. Indeed, the Huskies rank 17th in the country in total defense, giving up just 325.0 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their six opponents thus far average 379 yards per game offensively, so they are holding them 54 yards per game below their season average.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has not been that great defensively. It is giving up 23.8 points and 363.8 yards per game against opponents that only average 22.9 points and 338 yards per game on offense this season. Admittedly, the Huskies have a poor offense this year, but they should be able to muster up enough points to stay within this 28-point spread. I also wouldn’t be surprised if ECU fails to top 28 points in this one, which is something they have failed to do in three of six games this year.

Connecticut is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 9 points or fewer in their last game. Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. East Carolina is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a win. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Connecticut Thursday.

25* MLB Postseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Royals -108

After losing Game 1 of this series last night, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back and take Game 2 to assure that they won't go back to San Francisco down 2-0.  The Giants threw their ace in Bumgarner last night, but the rest of their rotation leaves a lot to be desired.

Jake Peavy is a journeyman who is no longer anything more than an average starter in this league.  The right-hander has gone 8-13 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 34 starts this season, including 5-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 18 road starts.

The Royals are very familiar with Peavy, who faced them quite a bit while a member of the Chicago White Sox.  Peavy is 5-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City.  Amazingly, Peavy has allowed AT LEAST 3 earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts against the Royals, including 4 or more in five of those.

Yordano Ventura may be a rookie, but he has pitched like a seasoned veteran this season.  The right-hander is 13-10 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 32 starts this year.  He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing five earned runs and 14 base runners over 12 2/3 innings in tough road starts against the Angels and Orioles.

Peavy is 19-33 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 17-5 in Ventura's last 22 starts.  The Royals are 21-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.  The Giants are 5-16 in their last 21 interleague road games. 

Ventura is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.  Kansas City is 8-1 in the postseason this year.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* Giants/Royals World Series Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -101

We are getting a great price on the Royals here in Game 1 of the World Series.  This team simply cannot lose, and they should be bigger favorites because of it.  They are the first team in MLB postseason history to win their first eight games.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them sweep the Giants in the World Series, either.

James Shields has been the ace of this team all season.  He has gone 15-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.210 WHIP over 37 starts this year.  One of those starts came against the Giants on August 9th at home.  Shields pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only five base runners in a 5-0 win for Kansas City.

Madison Bumgarner is the ace of the Giants and certainly one of the better starters in the league.  However, the Royals are hitting .271 against left-handed starters this season.  Also, Bumgarner lost his only career start against the Royals on August 8th this year when he gave up four runs over eight innings in a 2-4 loss for the Giants.

The Giants are 16-38 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  San Francisco is 5-16 in its last 21 interleague road games overall.  Kansas City is 42-18 in Shields' last 60 starts overall.  The Royals are 9-0 in their last nine games as an underdog, 8-0 in their last eight playoff games, 11-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record, and 11-1 in Shields' last 12 starts as an underdog.  These last four trends combine for a 39-2 system backing Kansas City.  Bet the Royals in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Arkansas State/UL-Lafayette No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns (3-3) played a gauntlet of a schedule in the early going and did not look good. Their blowout road losses to both Ole Miss and Boise State were not fun to watch for fans of this program. However, they have responded with two straight victories since. After a lackluster performance in a 34-31 win over Georgia State, they put together their most complete performance of the season last week.

Lafayette rolled to a 34-10 road win at Texas State to improve to 2-0 within the conference. It racked up 528 total yards of offense while limiting Texas State to just 270 total yards. Terrance Broadway, who is probably the best player in the conference, threw for 225 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 113 yards in the win.

I simply believe that tough early-season schedule will have Lafayette battle-tested hitting on all cylinders in the Sun Belt. They were the favorites to win this conference coming into the season, and I see no reason why that should change now after their 2-0 start. It’s very surprising to see them as home underdogs here to Arkansas State, which is a solid team, but lacks the talent that Lafayette has to offer.

Last year, Lafayette rolled to a 23-7 win at Arkansas State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Rajin’ Cajuns racked up 470 yards of offense while limiting the Red Wolves to just 168, outgaining them by a ridiculous 302 total yards. Broadway threw for 205 yards, while the team rushed for 265 yards in the win. That helped the Rajin’ Cajuns control the ball for over 42 minutes.

That result last year is important because of the players these two teams have coming back.  Lafayette returned 17 starters this season, while Arkansas State brought back just 12 starters.  These teams tied for the Sun Belt Title last year, but there's no question that the Rajin' Cajuns are the better team in 2014 with what they returned.  They are undervalued right now due to the slow start to the year outside of the conference.

Arkansas State is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Red Wolves are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette has won 8 of its last 9 home meetings with Arkansas State.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.

Note - I recommend buying Lafayette to +3 if you have the option but still would take them at +2.5.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +3

While these teams share identical 3-3 records this season, I have been much more impressed with the Texans and feel like they are the stronger team in 2014. They did lose the last two weeks, but even in the losses they proved they could play with two of the best teams in the league. Dallas needed overtime to beat the Texans 20-17. Indianapolis needed a late stop defensively to preserve its 33-28 win.  Dallas is 6-1, while Indy is 5-2 this season.

Pittsburgh’s three wins have come against Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville. It only beat the Browns and Jaguars by a combined 11 points, so those wins weren’t that impressive. It’s the losses that really show how down the Steelers are this year. They lost to the Ravens by 20 and the Browns by 21. They also fell at home to the Buccaneers 24-27. The Bucs and Jaguars were a combined 1-18 in their last 19 games overall heading into this week, and the Steelers only outscored those two awful teams 41-36.

The Steelers have given up 157-plus rushing yards in three different games this season. That’s bad news for their defense because they will be up against one of the better rushing attacks in the league. The Texans are averaging 128 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this year. Arian Foster is showing that he is still one of the elite backs in the NFL. He has rushed for 513 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Foster even missed one game due to injury, which was the only poor performance by the Texans this season in a 17-30 loss to the Giants.

I know their last meeting was a few years ago, but the Texans did beat the Steelers 17-10 at home. That was a much better Pittsburgh defense than the one it is putting on the field in 2014. Foster had a huge day on the ground in that game, rushing for 155 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. The Texans rushed for 180 as a team. Their defense also limited the Steelers to just 296 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger went 16 of 30 passing for 206 yards with a pick.

Houston's J.J. Watt is an a absolute beast.  He leads the NFL with 20 hits on quarterbacks this season, and he has also scored three touchdowns with two on defense and one on offense.  Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 17 times entering Week 7 for the second-highest total in the NFL.  Look for Watt and company to get after him and to force some turnovers in this one.  It’s also worth noting that the Texans will have three more days than the Steelers to prepare for this game after playing the Colts last Thursday.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) – after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 64-30 (68.1%) ATS since 1983. Houston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in its last three games. The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Monday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs +4

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) are looking at this game like a must-win because they cannot afford to fall any further behind in the AFC West standings with both the Broncos and Chargers only having one loss apiece. They will certainly be putting their best foot forward this week off their bye last week. The Chargers could actually afford a loss at this point and won’t be playing with the same sense of urgency as the Chiefs in this one because of their fast start to the season.

I really like what I’ve seen from this Kansas City team ever since its season-opening loss to the Titans. It went into Denver and gave Peyton Manning and company a run for their money in a 17-24 loss as a 13-point underdog. It went into Miami and came away with a 34-15 win as a 6-point dog. It thumped New England 41-14 on Monday Night Football as a 3-point dog. Then, it had its chances against San Francisco, but ultimately fell 17-22 on the road as a 4-point dog.

So, as you can see, the Chiefs have played three of their last four games on the road with all four coming against some of the premier teams in the league, especially the Broncos, Patriots and 49ers. They have hung right with or dominated each of their last four opponents. They are certainly capable of going into San Diego and coming away with a win in this one as well.

The Chargers are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-1 start to the season, which has also included a 5-1 ATS record. I successfully faded the Chargers last week by backing the Raiders as 7.5-point home underdogs in a 31-28 victory for San Diego. The Raiders were in that game the whole way, and just like the Chiefs, they were coming off their bye week. That makes this a very tough spot for San Diego as it has to face two straight teams coming off their bye weeks.

Not only does that make this a tough spot for the Chargers with the Chiefs coming off the bye, that may not even be the biggest situation factor here.  Perhaps the bigger factor is the fact that San Diego plays Denver on Thursday.  Even though this game against the Chiefs is a division game, I have no doubt the Chargers will be looking ahead to that game against the Broncos, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They simply will not be able to bring the kind of focus and effort to the field this week it takes to put away the pesky Chiefs.

The Chargers aren't as good as they're perceived to be this year, either.  They have faced the easiest schedule in the league thus far as their six opponents up to this point have a combined 33% winning percentage on the season.  Also, they have been lucky as they're the only team in the NFL to have not lost a fumble.  They have fumbled six times and recovered all six.

The Chiefs have only failed to cover the spread in one of their last 12 road games.  Coach Andy Reid has won 63% of his road games for his career.  Also, Reid has won 16 of his last 18 games as a head coach off a bye, including playoffs.

San Diego did win both meetings with Kansas City last year, but both were by exactly a field goal, and there’s a good chance this one is decided by a field goal as well. Also, the Chiefs even rested their starters in Week 17 last year, yet nearly beat the Chargers as 15.5-point underdogs. San Diego needed overtime to escape with a 27-24 home victory and punch its ticket into the playoffs. You can bet the Chiefs will be out for revenge in this one after getting swept in the season series by a combined six points last year.

Plays against any team (SAN DIEGO) – after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 140-85 (62.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Kansas City is 42-25 ATS in its last 67 road games following one or more consecutive losses. The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -3

After opening the season with losses against two of the best teams in the league in Denver and Philadelphia by a combined 10 points, there has been nobody playing better football than the Colts over the last four weeks. They have outscored the Jaguars, Titans, Ravens and Texans a combined 138-75 while going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

That doesn’t even tell the entire story. Not only are the Colts winning, they are absolutely dominating the box score. They ougained the Jaguars by 185 yards, the Titans by 237 yards, the Ravens by 145 yards, and the Texans by 124 yards. So, as you can see, they have outgained their last four opponents by a total of 691 yards. They even outgained the Broncos by 47 yards in their Week 1 loss on the road.

I have lost more money going against the Colts over the past few seasons than any other team in the NFL.  That's because they were always winning close games despite getting outgained on a regular basis.  Now, I know the Colts are the real deal because they rank 1st in the league in yardage differential.  They are outgaining opponents by 103.5 yards per game on the season, which is nearly 26 yards per game more than second place.

Andrew Luck is playing better than any quarterback in the league this season. He is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,987 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards and two scores. His ability to move within the pocket with his underrated feet make him very tough for opposing pass rushers to bring down. He’s so great at extending plays and making them when needed, but he’s also tremendous within the pocket.

Cincinnati was one of the most overrated teams in the league after its 3-0 start to the season. That showed in a 17-43 loss in New England in Week 5. It also showed last week as the Bengals only managed to tie the Panthers 37-37 at home despite being a 7-point favorite.  The Bengals had won 11 straight regular season home games prior to that tie, so they have clearly done most of their damage over the last few years at home and not on the road.

As you can see, their defense has given up a combined 80 points over the past two weeks.  They rank 28th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 398.8 yards per game on the season.  That's not good news for the Bengals because they will be up against a Colts offense that ranks 1st in the league in total offense at 444.0 yards per game.

Also, Cincinnati's offense was without star receiver A.J. Green last week, and he is doubtful to play with a toe injury this week. While he isn’t the best receiver in the league, he is more important to this Cincinnati offense than any other receiver in the NFL in my opinion. He just requires so much attention for opposing defenses.  Green has averaged 104.7 receiving yards per game in the last three full games he's played.  That kind of production is simply irreplaceable.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The Colts are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Bengals.  It's also important to note that the Colts will have three extra days of rest and preparation than the Bengals because they played last Thursday against Houston.  Meanwhile, the Bengals could be a little more fatigued than normal because they played a full five quarters last week in their overtime game against Carolina.

Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record over the last three years. The Colts are 12-1 ATS in a home games where the total is 45.5 or more over the last three seasons.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

It’s unfathomable that the Cleveland Browns are actually this big of a road favorite against anyone in the NFL. Sure, they are a vastly improved team this season with their 3-2 start, but they are getting too much respect here against the Jaguars. Asking them to go on the road and win by a touchdown or more to beat us is simply asking too much.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Browns, who are coming off their 31-10 beat down of the Steelers last week. That win had to feel good considering they 'improved' to 4-25 in their last 29 meetings with the Steelers in that AFC North rivalry. It will be hard for a team like the Browns to go on the road and put forth the kind of effort they did against the Steelers now that they’ll be facing a winless team.  This is clearly a tough spot for them because they are not used to success.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are very hungry for that first victory. They have been inching closer to it each of the last three weeks, losing by 19 on the road to the Chargers, by 8 at home to the Steelers, and by 2 last week on the road against the Titans. The reason they have been more competitive is the insertion of Blake Bortles as the starting quarterback.

Jacksonville played by far its best game of the season last week at Tennessee and arguably should have won. It outgained the Titans by 89 total yards for the game as the offense amassed a season-high 379 yards, and the defense limited the Titans to season-low 290 yards.

Bortles went 32-of-46 passing for 336 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 38 yards on five carries in his best game yet as a pro.  Cecil Shorts is back healthy and had a career-high 10 catches for 103 yards.  Bortles has completed 67.8 percent of his passes this year, which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Four of Cleveland’s five games this season have been decided by 3 points or less, and there’s a good chance this one will go right down to the wire as well. The Browns were fortunate to be able to come back from a 28-3 deficit to beat Tennessee 29-28 in their last road game. This is a team that has been dreadful on the road over the past decade and rarely wins away from home.

The Browns have been winning in spite of their defense, which has been atrocious this season.  They are giving up 23.0 points and 406.6 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.  Bortles figures to have another big day through the air in this one as the Jaguars will likely put forth their best offensive output of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.

The Cleveland offense has been surprisingly good, especially running the football.  It is averaging 146 yards per game on the ground.  However, center Alex Mack, the team's best and most important lineman, went down with a likely season-ending broken leg.  The center is the most underrated position in all of football.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer said it best when referring to Mack. "You just don't replace that guy," Hoyer said.  Plus, the Jacksonville run defense has been trending in the right direction.  The Jaguars have only allowed an average of only 74.3 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry over their last three games.  The Browns haven't proven they can really light it up through the air this season to take advantage of Jacksonville's biggest weakness, which is its secondary.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) – a horrible offensive team (scoring less than 14 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford -3.5

Stanford (4-2) is a couple of 3-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame away from being undefeated on the season. Because this is just a 4-2 team right now, I believe it is undervalued at this point in the season. It should be a much heavier favorite on the road against Arizona State this week. Defense wins games, and there’s no question that the Cardinal have the superior stop unit in this one.

The Cardinal are limiting opponents to just 10.0 points and 238.0 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total defense. They held a high-powered Washington State offense to just 266 yards of total offense last week. They held USC to 291 total yards and should have won that game. They also limited Washington to 179 total yards and Notre Dame to 370 yards.

The Sun Devils only brought two starters back on defense this year, and the inexperience has shown. They are giving up 31.4 points and 452.6 yards per game to rank 102nd in the country in total defense. They have given up over 200 yards rushing in four consecutive games. They were even outgained by Colorado on the road 426-545 for the game and should have lost, but found a way to win 38-24.

The fact of the matter is that Arizona State simply is not that good this season. It is getting respect because of its fluke win at USC in which it needed a late touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail mary on the final play of the game to win. The more telling result about how bad this team really is was the 27-62 home loss to UCLA a few weeks back. Look for Stanford to put a similar beat down on the Sun Devils, just as they have done in recent meetings.

Indeed, Stanford is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Arizona State. Last year, the Cardinal won 42-28 at home during the regular season in what was a 39-7 game entering the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils got some garbage points late to make the final score seem closer than it would appear. Then, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Cardinal rolled to a 38-14 victory while outgaining ASU 517-311 for the game.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (STANFORD) – off 3 or more consecutive unders, good team – outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Stanford is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Stanford is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 conference games. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* Notre Dame/Florida State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10

The Florida State Seminoles (6-0) have been overvalued all season due to winning the national championship last year. That couldn’t be more evident when you look at how they have done against the spread. They only won by 6 over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point favorite, by 25 over The Citadel as a 56.5-point favorite, by 6 over Clemson as a 10-point favorite, by 15 over NC State as a 16.5-point favorite, and by 18 over Syracuse as an 23.5-point favorite. Their only cover came against Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

Notre Dame (6-) has been very impressive this season outside of last week’s win over North Carolina, which was an obvious letdown and lookahead situation. The Irish were coming off a huge win over Stanford the previous week, and they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Florida State. So, I’m willing to throw out that performance because it wasn’t a good spot for them mentally. I really like what I’ve seen from this team in their wins over Stanford (17-14), Rice (48-17) and Michigan (31-0).

I also like the performance the Irish put up against Syracuse (31-15), which gives them a common opponent with the Seminoles, who beat the Orange 38-20. The Irish outgained the Orange 523-429 for the game, but the score was closer than it should have been because Notre Dame committed five turnovers. The Seminoles outgained the Orange 482-412 in their 18-point win. That effort shows that there is very little difference between these teams, and that the 10-point spread has been inflated.

Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule this season, which makes it even more impressive that it has nearly identical statistics to Florida State on the year. The Irish are averaging 34.5 points and 444.3 yards per game on the season, and giving up 17.2 points and 348.3 yards per game. They are outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Florida State is outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game and outgaining them by 104.2 yards per game.

Everett Golson is now 16-1 as a starter at Notre Dame.  The only loss was against Alabama in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game.  I like his moxy and his ability to just get it done.  He served a suspension in 2013 and was able to work on his craft.  He has been a better player this year as a result.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 209 yards and four scores in 2014.

Florida State, on the other hand, is dealing with the Jameis Winston situation.  He signed a bunch of autographs and the NCAA is looking into whether or not he was paid for them.  While Winston is expected to play this week, this is a huge distraction for the team and one that will work against them heading into this game against Notre Dame.  It takes some of the focus away from the game and there's no way that can be a good thing for the Seminoles, who are fortunate to still be undefeated this year.

The Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. Notre Dame is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 October road games. Brian Kelly is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Kelly is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better in all games he has coached. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +7

The Nebraska-Northwestern series has been one of the most exciting in all of college football since the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. All three games have been decided by a total of seven points, with the Huskers winning two. Last year, the Huskers won 27-24 thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. You can bet the Wildcats have had this game circled and will be looking for revenge in 2014.

In 2012, Nebraska rallied from 12 down in the final period to match the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history for a 29-28 win in Evanston. In their first meeting in 2011, Northwestern went into Lincoln as a 17-point underdog and came away with a 28-25 victory. There is a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, meaning there is clearly value with the touchdown underdog here.

Northwestern (3-3) did not look good in the early going this season with home losses to both California and Northern Illinois. However, this has been a completely different team since. A 29-6 road win at Penn State followed by a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin proved that this team is for real. Then, last week, the Wildcats outplayed Minnesota on the road but lost 17-24. They outgained the Gophers 393-274 for the game and should have won.

Nebraska (5-1) could not have faced an easier schedule in its first five games of the season with four at home and just one on the road at Fresno State. We got a glimpse of how bad the Huskers are this year when they trailed Michigan State 27-3 entering the fourth quarter last time out. Sure, they only lost 22-27, but they got 19 garbage points in the fourth quarter to make the game appear closer than it really was.  Now they are getting too much respect because it looks like they played the Spartans close when they really did not.

This Wildcats defense is vastly improved from a year ago.  They are only giving up 17.5 points, 358.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season against teams that are averaging 26.6 points, 404 yards and 5.6 per play.  They limited Penn State to 266 total yards and Minnesota to 274 total yards.  They also held Wisconsin to 14 points, which is no small feat.

Northwestern is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bo Pelini is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Nebraska.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +17

The Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) are extremely close to being 5-1 on the season. They have three blowout wins over Utah State, Arkansas State and Chattanooga. Their only blowout loss came at Oklahoma by a final of 10-34, but even that game was closer than the final score would indicate. Their 32-35 loss at Georgia and their 9-10 loss to Florida show that this team is vastly improved from last season and capable of beating any team in the SEC on their best day.

I really do believe the Volunteers have a chance to pull the upset here, let alone stay within 17 points. That’s because Ole Miss is in a very tough spot. It is getting all kinds of recognition nationally with a No. 3 ranking off wins over Alabama and Texas A&M. This is the definition of a trap game, because the Rebels have LSU and Auburn on deck over the next two weeks. I don’t expect them to come with their best effort against the Volunteers here.

They catch a Tennessee team that is desperate for a conference victory after losing its first two SEC games by a combined four points against quality competition. Butch Jones already has his players believing that they can beat anyone, and an upset like this would only affirm that belief. This is clearly Jones’ best team yet with the job he has been able to do in recruiting by going toe-for-toe with the big boys the last two years.

Sure, Ole Miss’ 35-20 win at Texas A&M last week appears impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was very fortunate to come away with a win, let alone a 15-point triumph. Indeed, the Aggies actually outgained the Rebels 455-338 for the game, but they committed three turnovers to essentially give it away. Only amassing 338 yards against a poor Texas A&M defense is a very bad result for this Ole Miss offense.

The Volunteers have a real shot of limiting this Ole Miss offense, which will help them stay within the 17-point spread. They are only giving up 19.2 points and 316.3 yards per game on the season to rank 16th in the country in total defense. That is even more impressive when you consider the six opponents that they have faced are averaging 30.9 points and 391 yards per game on the year, so they are holding them to roughly 12 points and 75 yards below their season averages.

Tennessee is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Ole Miss dating back to 1984. Plays on a road team (TENNESSEE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 186-109 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 October road games.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +10

I have been one of the biggest TCU (4-1) supporters coming into the season and early into the 2014 campaign. I predicted that they’d win the Big 12, and they have not disappointed up to this point. They beat Oklahoma and then had a 21-point lead against Baylor last week, only to give it up in the fourth quarter and lose by a final of 58-61. They covered in that contest to improve to a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their five games in 2014.

They were undervalued up until this point and I capitalized by backing them each of the last two weeks. However, I’m going the other way this week simply because this is a bad spot for TCU, and now it is finally getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Horned Frogs should not be favored by double-digits in this matchup against Oklahoma State (5-1).

The Frogs are in a huge hangover spot here from that loss to Baylor, and I look for them to come out very flat. It’s simply going to be too tough to get up emotionally for the Cowboys after playing two juggernauts like Oklahoma and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. They will struggle to win the game, let alone win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this lofty spread.

The Cowboys come in undervalued this week after only beating Kansas 27-20 on the road last week as an 18-point favorite. They haven’t been world beaters this season, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better than they were perceived to be coming into the year. Their only loss came to defending national champion Florida State by a final of 31-37 as 18.5-point underdogs. That effort alone showed that they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State has dominated TCU in its two meetings as Big 12 opponents. It won 36-14 at home in 2012 as a 7-point favorite while racking up 471 yards of total offense. It also won 24-10 at home last year as a 6-point favorite while putting up 415 yards of offense. The Cowboys won by 14 despite committing four turnovers because they held TCU to just 325 yards and forced four turnovers themselves.

The Cowboys have scored 20 or more points in 58 consecutive games dating back to the start of the 2010 season.  That's the longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in FBS history (USC, 2002-06).  It's also worth noting that TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin underwent surgery this week to repair a wrist injury.  Sure, he's probable to play, but a hurt wrist is not something you want your starting quarterback dealing with on the football field.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992. This trend just shows that it’s tough for even good teams to bounce back from a tough loss on the road. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor -7.5

I faded Baylor (6-0) with success last week in a rare ATS loss for the Bears. They beat TCU but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Off that rare loss against the spread, I believe the Bears are now undervalued in this one as only 7.5-point favorites. This is a team that went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. They have opened with a 4-1-1 ATS mark in 2014 to continue crushing the spread on a regular basis.

TCU is a much better team than it gets credit for, so that win over the Horned Frogs was nothing to frown about. The Bears are still the best team in the Big 12, and I would say that TCU is the second-best team. Baylor just scores at will and cannot be stopped. Putting up 61 points on a very good TCU defense is no small accomplishment. The Bears arguably should have won by more because they outgained TCU 782-485 for the game.

This Baylor offense tops the country in scoring (52.7) and yards per game (622.5) this season. Even after a poor defensive performance last week, the Bears are only giving up 20.0 points and 303.5 yards per game. There’s no question they have a better defense than WVU, which is giving up 27.2 points and 393.0 yards per game. I look for the difference in this game to be the Bears getting a few more stops than the Mountaineers to pick up the win and cover.

I just haven’t been impressed with WVU over the last few weeks. They lost to Oklahoma 33-45 at home and gave up 508 total yards in defeat. They also needed a big comeback to beat a terrible Texas Tech team 37-34 while giving up 565 total yards. If that’s the kind of effort their defense is going to give against those two teams, you can just imagine what this Baylor offense is going to do against that WVU defense.

Last year, Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bears outgained the Mountaineers 875-399 for the game, more than doubling their yardage output. Bryce Petty left this game early because of the blowout after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears rushed for a ridiculous 479 yards while averaging 8.0 per carry in the win.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS versus good rushing defenses that give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Bears.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +14

The Purdue Boilermakers (3-4) have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They have already tripled their win total from a year ago and have even been impressive in some of their losses.  Their most impressive performance was a 38-27 win at Illinois to pick up their first conference victory since 2012.

However, I was even impressed with how Purdue hung around against teams like Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan State, all of which are better teams than Minnesota.  They only lost 14-30 to Notre Dame as 30-point underdogs, 10-24 to Iowa after blowing a 10-0 lead, and 31-45 to Michigan State last week as 21.5-point underdogs.  They even racked up 340 total yards against a very good Spartan defense.

Minnesota (5-1) is overvalued right now due to its record this season.  It has played a very soft schedule thus far, which is the biggest reason for the record.  The 7-30 road loss to TCU is the exception, and it was the most telling performance about this team. 

Sure, the Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, but everyone is beating the Wolverines.  The Gophers also picked up a nice 24-17 win over Northwestern last week, but a closer look at the box score shows they should have lost that game.  They only gained 274 yards of total offense and gave up 393 yards, getting outgained by the Wildcats by 119 yards for the game.

I have really liked what I've seen from this Purdue offense of late.  It has actually scored 35-plus points in three of its last four games, including the 38 on Illinois and the 31 on Michigan State.  Akeem Hunt rushed for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Spartans on only 12 carries.  Hunt is one of the more underrated backs in the country as he has 542 yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 6.2 per carry.

This Minnesota offense simply isn't explosive enough to put away a team like Purdue.  The Gophers are only averaging 27.0 points and 331.8 yards per game this season to rank 116th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense.  That's really bad when you consider they have played a very suspect schedule to this point.

The Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.  Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Boilermakers are 13-6 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Minnesota.  Take Purdue Saturday.

20* Temple/Houston AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +8

The Temple Owls (4-1) are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have already doubled their win total from a year ago with their only loss coming to a very good Navy team by a final of 24-31. Their two most impressive performances of the season came in their two road games.

They went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 37-7 despite being an 8.5-point underdog in that game. They also went to Connecticut and came away with a 36-10 win as a 6-point favorite. Sure, Vanderbilt and UConn are not great teams, but the way the Owls beat them down speaks volumes about what they are capable of.

The Owls have been impressive on both sides of the football. They are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.4 points per game on the season. They have been a much more competitive team ever since P.J. Walker took over as starting quarterback over the final seven games last year. Walker is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,099 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this year, while also rushing for 92 yards and three scores.

Sure, Houston beat Temple 22-13 on the road last year and probably should have won by more due to the yardage differential, but that was an early-season game. It was prior to Walker taking over as the starting quarterback. With Walker, the Owls are more than capable of going into Houston and coming away with a victory in this one.

The Cougars have not been impressive at all this season. They already have three losses on the year, including a 7-27 home loss to a UTSA team that is not that good in the opener. They are getting a lot of respect for their 28-24 win at Memphis last week, which has inflated this line up to 8 when it should be right around a field goal, providing some value with a road underdog Owls in this one.

While Temple has scored 35 or more points in four of its five games this season, Houston has been held to 28 or fewer points in four of its five games. It lacks the offensive firepower to put away Temple in this one. That’s especially the case considering how well the Owls have played defensively this year in giving up just 326.6 yards per game. The Cougars are only averaging 371.5 yards per game on offense against defenses that are giving up an average of 409 yards per game.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The Owls are 9-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog. Temple is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Temple Friday.

15* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

I look for a shootout tonight between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in this AFC East showdown.  This has been a very high-scoring series in recent years and I look for that to continue in their first meeting of 2014.

Indeed, the OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Patriots and Jets.  They have combined to score 48 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 51 or more in five of the last six.

The Patriots are back. They went to a no-huddle, up-tempo offense against the Bengals and have put together their two most complete performances of the season as a result. They beat the Bengals 43-17 while putting up 505 yards of total offense. Then last week, they topped the Bills 37-22 while racking up 396 yards.

Tom Brady has been much more efficient in the new-look offense. He completed 23 of 35 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against the Bengals. Brady went 27 of 37 for 361 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Bills last week. Those are two of the better defenses in the league, and Brady was able to do whatever he wanted to against them.

The Patriots have two key injuries that will also favor the over.  They lost running back Steven Ridley for the season, so they will certainly be putting the ball in the air a lot in this one.  They also lost arguably their best defensive player in Jarrod Mayo to a season-ending injury last week.  The Jets should have success running the football because of it.

New England is 6-0 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 6-0 to the OVER against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last three years.  New England is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  New England is 12-1 to the OVER after having won two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  These five trends combine for a 38-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest Thursday night between Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.  These are two teams with very good defenses and limited offenses who will find points very hard to come by.

Virginia Tech’s defense is going to be able to stop Pittsburgh’s offense. The Hokies have been tremendous against the run in allowing just 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry against teams who average 191 yards per game and 4.9 per carry, holding them to 82 yards and 1.5 per carry below their season average.

Pittsburgh is a team that relies exclusively on the run. It averages 46 rushing attempts and 244 yards per game on the ground compared to 24 pass attempts and 161 yards per game through the air. Their one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the football in this one.

The Panthers have given up 25 or fewer points in all six games they have played.  They are allowing just 19.0 points and 277.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total defense.  The Hokies have put up decent numbers offensively, but they've been up against six teams whose defenses average giving up 29.6 points and 415 yards per game.  They haven't faced a defense near the caliber of the one they will be up against Thursday.

Virginia Tech has played four elite offensive football teams this year, which makes their numbers defensively all the more impressive.  They combined with Ohio State for 56 points, East Carolina for 49 points, Georgia Tech for 51 points, and North Carolina for 51 points.  There's no question this game will stay below the 45.5-point total against a much worse offense and a much better defense in Pittsburgh.

In its last three games, Pittsburgh has combined with Iowa for 44 points, with Akron for 31 points, and with Virginia for 43 points as all three games have gone UNDER the total.  Look for this contest against the Hokies to take on a similar tone as they have a much better defense than those three teams, and only a slightly better offense.

Last year, Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh 19-9 at home for 28 combined points when the game total was set at 43.  This was precisely the defensive battle that the score would indicate as well.  The Hokies held the Panthers to 11 first downs and 210 total yards.  Virginia Tech managed 17 first downs and just 315 total yards in the victory.

Pittsburgh is 34-18 to the UNDER in its last 52 games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 24-9-1 in Hokies last 34 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Panthers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Panthers last five games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Panthers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Orioles/Royals Game 4 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -117

The Kansas City Royals have tied an MLB record for most consecutive wins to start a postseason at seven.  I look for them to break that record and to punch their tickets to the World Series with another victory in Game 4 tonight.

This series was essentially won last night when the Royals didn't need a hit to knock in a run as they scored on a groundout and a sacrifice fly.  Their starting pitching was good, and their bullpen didn't allow a hit.  This is just the formula that they have been using all postseason.  Simply find a way to win.  That's what they'll do again tonight.

Jason Vargas has been solid this season for the Royals.  The left-hander is 11-10 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.259 WHIP over 31 starts.  In his lone postseason start, he gave up just two earned runs and four base runners over six innings of a 3-2 win at the Angels.

Vargas has owned the Orioles throughout his career, posting a 1.94 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Miguel Gonzalez has struggled against Kansas City, going 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts.  In his last two starts against the Royals, he has given up nine earned runs over 10 2/3 innings.

Vargas is 13-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last three seasons.  The Royals are 48-23 in their last 71 games overall.  Kansas City is 10-1 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

15* Orioles/Royals Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +103

The Kansas City Royals simply cannot lose right now.  They have all of the momentum on their side, and I have been riding them with a ton of success this postseason.  I see no reason to stop in Game 3 as they return home in front of a raucous crowd looking to go ahead 3-0 in this series.

This is a pretty evenly-matched game on the mound between Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.71 ERA) and Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.09 ERA) tonight.  While Chen has slightly better numbers, I really like the way these starters are trending here of late.

Guthrie has gone 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just one earned run over 20 1/3 innings against the Red Sox, Tigers & White Sox in pressure-packed games.  Meanwhile, Chen is 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Chen gave up five earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in his only postseason start against Detroit on October 3rd.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in six career starts against Kansas City.  Guthrie is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.

The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight games as an underdog.  Kansas City is 47-23 in its last 70 games overall.  The Royals are 27-12 in Guthrie's last 39 home starts.  Kansas City is 18-6 in Guthrie's last 24 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Royals in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* UL-Lafayette/Texas State No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -2

I’ve been really impressed with the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) in 2014 in just their third season as an FBS member and their second in the Sun Belt Conference. This is a team that went 6-6 last year with five of their wins coming against FBS foes. They certainly have a shot at bowl eligibility this year and are a dark horse candidate to win the Sun Belt.

While the Bobcats’ three wins aren’t all that impressive aside from the 37-34 win at Tulsa as 3-point underdogs, their two losses say a lot about what kind of team this is. They only lost 21-35 at home to a very good Navy team while racking up 442 yards of total offense in the defeat. More promising yet was their 35-42 loss at Illinois as 11-point underdogs as they gained 475 yards in that game.

As you can see, Texas State has a very good offense, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering it returned eight starters on this side of the ball from last year. It is putting up 38.6 points and 497.8 yards per game on the season. Tyler Jones is completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 1,149 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores. Terrance Franks (408 yards, 7.8/carry, 6 TD) and Robert Lowe (402 yards, 5.9/carry, 2 TD) form a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Many expected Louisiana to win the Sun Belt this year. That looks like a long shot now after what this team has shown so far. The Rajin’ Cajuns’ only wins this season have both come at home against Southern (45-6) as a 38.5-point favorite and Georgia State (34-31) as a 16.5-point favorite. That half-point cover against Southern was the only cover for them all season. They have lost to LA Tech (20-48) at home, and Ole Miss (15-56) and Boise State (9-34) on the road.

I realize that Louisiana crushed Texas State last year by a final of 48-24. However, that couldn’t have been a better spot for the Rajin’ Cajuns as they were coming off a bye week and had a bye week on deck. It’s clear that the Rajin’ Cajuns are way down this season compared to last year, while the Bobcats are vastly improved. The Bobcats should have no problem moving the football and putting up points on a Louisiana defense that is giving up 35.0 points and 458.0 yards per game on the season.

Plays against road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) – after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 94-48 (66.2%) ATS since 1992. Louisiana is 0-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. Lafayette is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or less turnovers over the past two years. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Texas State Tuesday.

20* 49ers/Rams ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers (3-2) are a couple blown second-half leads to the Bears and Cardinals away from being undefeated this year. They have rebounded nicely over the last two weeks with a 26-21 win over the Eagles and a 22-17 victory over the Chiefs. Both games were dominant performances by the 49ers. They outgained the Eagles 407-213 and forced four turnovers, while also outgaining the Chiefs 357-265.

Many thought that their defense would be down this season, but that couldn’t have been further from the truth. They are still very much getting it done on that side of the ball. Indeed, the 49ers rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 282.8 yards per game this season.

St. Louis has taken a massive step back on that side of the ball this season. It only has one sack through four games, and a big reason for that is the injury to defensive end Chris Long. The Rams rank 13th in total defense this year, giving up 344.8 yards per game. They are also allowing a whopping 29.8 points per game this season, which is the third-worst mark in the league.

Frank Gore voiced his frustration after the 49ers’ 1-2 start. This team was built behind a physical running game and a defense. The 49ers have gotten back to their old ways the past two weeks, rushing for 218 yards on the Eagles and 171 on the Chiefs. Gore accounted for 119 yards on 24 carries against the Eagles and 107 yards on 18 carries against the Chiefs.

After back-to-back strong performances on the ground, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in rushing at 145.0 yards per game. The biggest weakness for the Rams’ defense is against the run.  They rank 31st in the league in rushing defense, allowing 152.5 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.

San Francisco has dominated this series with St. Louis, going 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings. Last year, it put together a pair of blowout victories with a 35-11 win on the road and a 23-13 home victory. The 49ers outscored the Rams a combined 58-24 in the two victories. The defense limited the Rams’ offense to an average of 250 yards per game in the two wins as well.

The 49ers are 8-1 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 Monday games. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC West opponents. St. Louis is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

15* Giants/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3

These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Few teams have played as well as the New York Giants over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Eagles have not looked very impressive over the last three weeks and are fortunate to be 4-1 on the season. They have won three games by 6 points or less, and they lost to the 49ers 21-26 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Only beating the Redskins 37-34 at home back in Week 3 looks like a really poor performance right now because they are 1-4 on the season. In that loss to the 49ers, the Eagles were outgained 213-407 for the game. They got three non-offensive touchdowns against the 49ers, and then came back back with two more last week against the Rams.

That gives the Eagles a whopping seven non-offensive touchdowns for the season, which is by far the most in the league and will not continue at nearly this pace.  They were outgained by the Redskins by 132 yards and by the Rams by 114 yards. So, over the last three weeks combined, the Eagles have been outgained by a total of 440 yards. 

They have been outgained by more than 200 yards on the season, which isn't the sign of a 4-1 team.  They have also really struggled in the red zone as their spread offense just doesn't get it done when they get inside the opponent's 20-yard line.  Indeed, they have scored touchdowns on just 6 of their 16 trips into the red zone this season.

Nick Foles is being exposed this season.  He played well behind a dominant offensive line last year that saw all five starters start in all 16 games.  Now, the Eagles have really been beat up along the offensive line as they are down at least two starters.  Foles and the offense have struggled to move the football, especially the last two weeks.  Their rushing attack was 1st in the league last year, but just 23rd in 2014, averaging a mere 98.6 yards per game.  That can also be attributed to the struggles and injuries along the O-Line.

The Giants have won three straight games by double-digits. They dominated Houston in a 30-17 home win, went on the road and beat Washington 45-14, and then toppled Atlanta 30-20 at home last week. The new West Coast offense has really come alive with an average of 35 points per game over the last three weeks. Eli Manning and company are hitting on all cylinders right now and should be able to do what they want against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 28th in the league, giving up an average of 406.2 yards per game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between the Giants and Eagles. The road team has actually won five of the last seven meetings outright while going a combined 5-1-1 against the spread. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series as well.

New York is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. awful passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game. The Giants are 33-12 ATS in their last 45 road games off two or more consecutive ATS wins. New York is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 October games. The Giants are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Eagles are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. Philadelphia is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 when playing the role of the favorite for the second week in a row.  Take the Giants Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Giants to +3 if you have the option.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7.5

The Raiders have fired yet another head coach in Dennis Allen. He simply did not get the job done as this team went just 4-12 in his first two seasons, and then opened 0-4 this year. The veteran Tony Sparano, who took a 1-15 Miami team to the playoffs in his first year as head coach there, takes over. Any time a team goes through a coaching change like this, they usually respond in that first game back.

This was the perfect timing for the Raiders to make that change considering they had a bye last week. That gives Sparano a chance to work with the team for two full weeks. I look for them to come out and play their best game of the season this week, especially since they won’t have any problem getting motivated to face their division rivals in the Chargers.

Oakland has played San Diego very tough over the past four seasons. Indeed, it has gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Chargers. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Even the four losses have been relatively close as all four have come by 13 points or less. The Raiders beat the Chargers 27-17 at home loss year as 5.5-point underdogs, and now they are catching 7.5 points in their 2014 home meeting.

San Diego is clearly overvalued right now due to starting a perfect 5-0 against the spread through its first five games. The betting public has taken notice, and has been pounding the Chargers in recent weeks. Oddsmakers have had no other choice but to inflate their line this week knowing that everyone wants to bet the Chargers, while nobody wants to bet the Raiders right now. That’s indicated by the fact that roughly 80% of the bets are coming in on the Chargers in this one, providing some nice line value with the Raiders.  Also, this line was San Diego -3 to open the season.

Here are some interesting trends backing the Raiders.  Winless teams in Week 6 or later in the role of the underdog have covered 63% of the time.  Winless teams off a bye are 29-11 ATS in the last 40 instances.  If you bet $1,000/game on all NFL road favorites of 7 or more points over the last 20 years, you would be down $63,000.

Plays on home underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a terrible team (winning 25% or fewer games) playing a team with a winning record are 117-63 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 October games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Raiders at +7.  You don't need to buy it to 7.5.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +3.5

It has been feast or famine for the Miami Dolphins (2-2) in 2014. They could not have looked better in their 33-20 home win over New England in the opener as they held the Patriots to just 315 total yards. They also looked great last time out in a 38-14 win against Oakland in London, outgaining the Raiders 435-317 for the game while forcing four turnovers.

I tend to believe that the Dolphins are somewhere in between their performances against the Patriots and Raiders and their blowout losses to the Bills (10-29) and Chiefs (15-34). I would lean toward they are more the team that beat the Raiders and Patriots in blowout fashion as well. They certainly should be putting their best foot forward on Sunday considering they are coming off their bye week.

One key coaching edge the Dolphins have in this one is that head coach Joe Philbin was the former offensive coordinator of the Packers. He knows exactly what they like to run, and he’ll be very prepared to stop it. Meanwhile, Philbin has handed over the play-calling duties to Bill Lazor this season, the former offensive coordinator under Chip Kelly and the Eagles last year. So, the Packers aren’t familiar with the system that Philbin’s team is running. Having two weeks to prepare for the Packers is even bigger for the Dolphins since Philbin knows that offense inside and out.

I believe Green Bay is being overvalued here because it is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Chicago (38-17) and Minnesota (42-10). That win over Chicago was nowhere near the blowout the final score would indicate. In fact, the Packers were actually outgained 358-496 by the Bears in that contest and probably should not have won. Then, they got to play the Vikings last week, who were starting third-stringer Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The Packers have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS while getting outgained 278.7 to 415.7, or by an average of 137 yards per game. They are a completely different team when they get away from the friendly confines of Lambeau Field.  Green Bay has been outgained by more than 300 yards on the season, while Miami has actually outgained opponents by over 100 yards this year.  This shows that Miami is arguably the better team.

Another factor to keep in mind here is the heat in Miami.  Temperatures are expected to be around 91 and humid with a heat index of 95 for Sunday.  The Patriots, a cold weather team, struggled in the second half against the Dolphins, getting outscored 23-0 after intermission.  The Packers, another cold weather team, figure to struggle in the second half in this heat as well.

Miami ranks 5th in the league in rushing at 142.2 yards per game.  Green Bay ranks dead last against the run, yielding 163.0 yards per game.  The Dolphins get back starting center Mike Pouncey this week from injury, which will only enhance the performance of their offensive line.  Look for Miami to control the time of possession with their ability to run the football.  That will really wear down this shaky Packers' defense and will have a really big impact in the warm weather, especially in the second half.

The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Miami is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 6-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Dolphins at +3.  If you get 2.5 buy it to 3 if you have the option, but don't buy it to 3.5.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +7

The Panthers certainly have had a pair of uncharacteristic performances in their blowout losses at the hands of the Steelers and Ravens. However, they have been very solid in their other three games with a 20-14 win at Tampa Bay without Cam Newton, a 24-7 home win over Detroit that looks really good right now, and a 31-24 home win over Chicago last week. I tend to believe that the Panthers are closer to the team that they were last year when they went 12-4 rather than the one that was blown out in consecutive weeks.

I have no doubt that Cincinnati was overvalued after a 3-0 start that made most media outlets peg the Bengals as the best team in the league. They couldn’t be further from it, and that showed last week in a 17-43 road loss to a New England team that isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past. The Bengals gave up 505 total yards to the Patriots in the loss.

Cincinnati was overvalued as a favorite last week in New England, and it is once again being overvalued as a 7-point home favorite in this contest. These teams are very similar in that they rely on physical defenses. I just believe that Carolina’s stop unit is better than that of Cincinnati, and that will show this week.

The Bengals rank a woeful 27th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 390.8 yards per game.  Despite being 3-1, they have actually been outgained by nearly 100 yards on the season, which is a stat that shows they are not as good as their record would indicate.  They are also overvalued due to their success at home over the past few seasons.

Cincinnati is expected to be without its best players in wide receiver A.J. Green this week.  Green is a matchup nightmare and worth more points to the Bengals than perhaps any other receiver in the league would be to their respective teams.  Sure, Calvin Johnson is up there, but the Lions have a plethora of other weapons.  The Bengals do not, and the loss of Green will be felt in this one as the Panthers can stack the box and stop the run, because they know Andy Dalton cannot beat them without Green.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) – after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. While the betting public is being quick to overlook Cincinnati’s blowout loss to New England, it is not overlooking Carolina’s two blowout losses to the Ravens and Steelers. That’s why there is clearly value with the Panthers, as this trend suggests.

Carolina is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games versus poor rushing defenses that allow 130 or more yards per game. Cincinnati is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in its last game. The Bengals are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss by 21 or more points, coming back to lose by an average of 10.5 points per game in this spot.  The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

Note - I'd still recommend a play on the Panthers at +6.5.  I will be buying it to 7, and recommend you do the same if you have the option.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -2.5

New England proved that it was far from done for last week with a 43-17 home win over Cincinnati. Everyone was writing Tom Brady and the offense off, and all they did was rack up 505 total yards against one of the best defenses in the league. Look for this game to be the turning point for the offense and the team as a whole. The way they rallied around one another, the Patriots are going to be a scary bunch going forward.

The key last week for the Patriots is that they went to a hurry-up, no-huddle offense to find a rhythm and keep the Bengals guessing.  They ran a whopping 82 plays, which is like the Oregon Ducks of college football.  The even ran the ball 46 times against Cincinnati.  This is the kind of offense you are going to see from Brady and company going forward as it's clearly what they have to do to be most effective.

The Bills are coming off a big win at Detroit that has them overvalued here. Had they not beaten the Lions, they would be more than a 2.5-point underdog in this one. They did not really deserve to win that game as the Lions missed three field goals, which led to the release of their kicker. This is a solid Buffalo team and one that is certainly improved, but the offensive struggles for this team will hold them back in this one.

Buffalo ranks just 26th in the league in total offense at 325.2 yards per game this season. Kyle Orton did throw for over 300 yards against the Lions, but nobody is going to mistake him for Peyton Manning. Speaking of mistakes, he also threw and interception that was returned for a touchdown. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering he has been known for making mistakes throughout his career. Orton hasn't magically fixed the offense, and he's not going to out-duel Tom Brady in this one.

Nobody has dominated one team quite like the Patriots. Indeed, they have gone 20-1 straight up in their last 21 meetings with the Bills. With this line set at only 2.5 points, the Patriots essentially just have to win to cover the spread. I like their chances of winning by a field goal or more and to continue the one-sided nature of this series Sunday afternoon.

New England is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games vs. a marginal winning team with a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. New England is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games after allowing 3 point or less in the first half of last game. The Bills are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Patriots at -3

15* Penn State/Michigan ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

James Franklin has had a bye week to get his team ready for Michigan. It certainly could not have been a pleasant bye week for these Nittany Lions players as they made all kinds of mistakes in their 23-point loss to Northwestern last time out. However, I believe that performance was an aberration and not the typical effort you will see from this Penn State (4-1) team the rest of the way, especially this week.

The Nittany Lions had been very impressive prior to that game during their 4-0 start. They outgained UCF by 265 yards in their 26-24 win over in Ireland, outgained Akron by 148 yards in their 21-3 home victory, outgained Rutgers by 79 yards in their 13-10 road win, and outgained UMass by 198 yards in their 48-7 home victory. They turned the ball over twice against Northwestern, including one that was returned for a touchdown to blow the game open in the fourth quarter. This was a 14-6 game entering the final period.

It’s amazing that Brady Hoke has kept his job with the start the Wolverines are off to this season. They have gone just 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against the likes of Appalachian State and Miami Ohio. They were blown out on the road by Notre Dame 31-0, and they suffered lopsided defeats at the hands of both Utah (10-26) and Minnesota (14-30) at home.

Even their 24-26 loss at Rutgers last week was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Wolverines 476-336 for the game, or by 140 total yards. Michigan was also outgained by a whopping 202 total yards by Minnesota the week before as its offense only put up 171 yards in that 16-point loss. The Wolverines have been held to 336 or fewer yards in all four of their losses.

It’s going to be tough sledding for the Michigan offense again this week against perhaps the best defense they have seen yet. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 14.6 points and 288.8 yards per game this season to rank 9th in the country in total defense. Offensively, the Nittany Lions have the superior unit as they are averaging 407.8 yards per game, while the Wolverines are only averaging 354.0 yards per game.

Making matters worse for the Michigan offense is the fact that it is going to be without its leading rusher for the rest of the season.  Derrick Green (471 yards, 5.7/carry, 3 TD) broke his collarbone against Rutgers and is done for the year.  Also, second-leading rusher De'Veon Smith (282 yards, 6.0/carry, 4 TD) is dealing with an injury, though he is expected to give it a go against Penn State.  That puts even more pressure on Devin Gardner, who has already thrown seven interceptions in 120 attempts this season.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points. Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN) – with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS since 1992. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -8.5

There’s no question that Nick Saban is steaming over the loss to Ole Miss. That will be reflected in practice this week in preparation for Arkansas. Look for him to rally the troops and have the Crimson Tide coming back motivated and determined this week as all of their goals are still within their grasp despite that loss. This team is simply too talented for the Razorbacks to hang with.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Arkansas with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points per game. Five of those wins have come by 24 or more points, and the last two have resulted in 52-0 blowouts in the Crimson Tide’s favor. While the Razorbacks are a better team this year, they aren’t good enough to stay within single-digits of Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been dominant statistically this season. They average 37.0 points and 549.2 yards per game on offense, which makes this one of the most explosive units in the Saban era. While the defense is perceived to be down a notch, they are still allowing just 15.8 points and 264.8 yards per game and are only going to get better on this side of the ball as the season progresses.

Arkansas is an improved offensive team this season, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired. It is giving up 25.8 points and 403.2 yards per game this season. In the opener against Auburn, the Razorbacks were beaten 21-45 as they were outgained 328-595 for the game. Alabama is every bit as good as Auburn this season, so expect a one-sided affair in this one. The Razorbacks also gave up 523 total yards to Texas A&M last time out.

Alabama is only giving up 64 yards per game and 2.6 per carry on the ground this season, so the Razorbacks won’t be able to do a whole lot defensively because they rely on the run almost exclusively.  Indeed, the Razorbacks average 317 yards on the ground and only 168 through the air.  This is the type of game where being one-dimensional is going to really cost Arkansas.

Alabama is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Bret Bielema is 2-14 ATS versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or less yards per game in all games he has coached.  Finally, the Crimson Tide have not lost back-to-back SEC games since Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa back in 2007.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Auburn/Mississippi State CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) have been arguably the most underrated team in the country up to this point. I believe they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as a 3-point home underdog to the Auburn Tigers (5-0) in this one. It makes sense because they have been down for so long, but this isn’t the same Mississippi State team of year’s past. This is Dan Mullen’s best team yet with 16 starters back, and a legitimate contender to win the SEC West.

The last two wins by Mississippi State show that it is for real. It went into LSU and came away with a 34-29 victory as a 7-point underdog. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Bulldogs led 34-10 in the fourth quarter before LSU got 19 garbage points in the final period. They dominated from start to finish last week, beating Texas A&M 48-31 at home as a 2.5-point favorite.

I stated last week that Dak Prescott is a guy you need to keep your eye on for the Heisman Trophy, and he had another big performance against the Aggies. He totaled five touchdowns in the win with two passing and three rushing. Prescott is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 455 yards and six scores on the season. He is a 235-pound quarterback in a running back’s body.

While I admit that Auburn has been better than I expected this season, it has done all of its damage at home. In its only road game this year, it won 20-14 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. It had no business winning that game as the Wildcats missed three field goals. They also had a touchdown pass dropped in the end zone that turned into an interception for the Tigers.

The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Last year, Mississippi State only lost 20-24 at Auburn as a 6.5-point road underdog. That effort against the eventual SEC champs showed what the Bulldogs were capable of. Now, with a much better team in 2014 and getting the Tigers at home this time around, I look for the the Bulldogs to pull off the upset this week.

Sure, Mississippi State has been torched through the air this year, but that won't come into play this week against an Auburn team that throws the ball just 34% of the time and runs it 66% of the time.  That makes this a great match-up for the Bulldogs, who are only giving up 98 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry against opponents who average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Auburn's one-dimensional offense will cost them, while Mississippi State's balanced attack (274 rypg, 267 pypg) will be tough for the Tigers to stop.

One trend that just goes to show how undervalued the Bulldogs have been is the fact that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +8

If you’ve ready anything I’ve written about TCU (4-0) before, you’ll know that they were my pick to win the Big 12 coming into the season. I was on them last week against Oklahoma, and I am taking them this week against Baylor as well. This is arguably the best team that head coach Gary Patterson has had yet. They only went 4-8 last year but were much better than that, losing by a field goal to both Baylor and Oklahoma.

In that 38-41 home loss to Baylor last year, the Horned Frogs played the Bears as good as almost anyone. They actually outgained them 410-370 for the game, but committed three turnovers that cost them the victory. The defense limited Bryce Petty to just 19 of 38 passing for 206 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, which is no small feat. Their defense played as well against Baylor as anyone last year.

That stop unit has been a big reason for the 4-0 start this season. The Horned Frogs are only giving up 13.5 points and 279.2 yards per game this year. They actually ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense last season among conference games. This stop unit does not get enough credit, and it is fully capable of containing this high-powered Baylor offense again in 2014.

However, the biggest difference for TCU this year has been the improvement on offense. It went to a new no-huddle, spread offense, and it is getting rave reviews. The Frogs are averaging 42.7 points and 516.2 yards per game this season. They put up 37 points and 469 total yards against Oklahoma last week as Trevone Boykin threw for 318 yards and rushed for 77 more. Boykin has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 260 yards and three scores this year.

Baylor is a team I have backed in four of the five games it has played this year, so I have been big on the Bears as well. They have gone 4-0-1 against the spread in all games this season. However, the betting public is finally onto how good this team is, and they are finally overvalued this week as more than a touchdown favorite.

TCU is by far the best team that they have faced this year as the Bears have played an extremely soft schedule, so they aren’t battle-tested, which hurts them coming into this one.  Baylor has played the likes of SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Texas.  TCU's win over Oklahoma gives it the confidence needed to go into Baylor and pull off the upset in this one.

The Horned Frogs have really dominated this series with the Bears.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Baylor dating back to 2006.  Their two losses have come by a combined 5 points.  Back in 2012, the Horned Frogs went on the road and beat Baylor 49-21 as 6-point underdogs.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for TCU to likely win the game, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Baylor is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. good pass defenses that allow 48% completions or less. The Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus good defensive teams that give up 4.25 or fewer yards per play. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Baylor.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on North Carolina +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) are way overvalued this week off their win over Stanford last week. There are certain games where statistics can be thrown out the window, and this is one of them.  You look at the numbers and you see a great Notre Dame defense and a terrible UNC stop unit up to this point, but those are two things I'm willing to overlook because of this tough situation for the Fighting Irish.

That victory over the Cardinal sets them up for a letdown spot here. Couple that with the fact that they play No. 1 Florida State next week, and there’s almost no way they bring their best effort to the field against UNC. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Seminoles and won’t have the kind of focus it takes to win by 17-plus points against the Tar Heels.

Without question, North Carolina has been way overvalued up to this point in the season. Many thought that it would win the ACC Coastal Division this season, but that is looking like a long shot now after three straight losses, including two to ACC foes.

However, those three losses all came to very good teams in East Carolina, Clemson and Virginia Tech. They at least hung around against both Clemson and VA Tech as last week’s 17-34 find score against the Hokies was nowhere near indicative of how close the game was.  I really liked what I saw out of this UNC defense last week as they limited the Hokies to 357 yards of total offense. It just shows that the defense can be better than it was through the first four games of the season.

After going 0-5 against the spread through their first five games, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Tar Heels. They are finally undervalued now after being overvalued up to this point. It’s time to jump back on the Tar Heels, who won six of their final seven games last season to come on strong in the second half after a slow start.  I can easily foresee the same thing happening in 2014 with the talent that is on this roster.

The Fighting Irish were in a similar letdown spot earlier this season.  They were coming off a 31-0 win over Michigan in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Wolverines actually outgained them for the game.  They played Purdue next week, and I was all over the Boilermakers as 30-point underdogs.  The Fighting Irish only won that game by 16 points.  This is an even tougher spot for them because of the letdown/lookahead spot combined, and UNC is a better team than Purdue.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off four or more consecutive unders. Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) – average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last three games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. UNC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) certainly were not that dominant in their first three non-conference games, but they got the job done. Their 42-38 win over Georgia Southern had many folks skeptical, but it has been proven since that Georgia Southern is no joke. With a 27-24 road win at Virginia Tech and a 28-17 home win over Miami to open ACC play, it’s also clear that the Yellow Jackets are a real contender to win the Coastal Division this season.

Duke is a team I had circled coming into the year as overvalued. It certainly was overvalued heading into ACC play due to four straight wins in the non-conference over lowly teams like Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. That showed in a 10-22 road loss to Miami in its ACC opener in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils were outgained by the Hurricanes 264-426 for the game and should have lost by more.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. Georgia Tech is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Duke with an average victory of 21.2 points per game. It is 18-1 the last 19 meetings as well while winning nine straight home meetings all by 10 or more points. Last year, Georgia Tech beat the Blue Devils 38-14 while outgaining them 469-254 for the game in an completely lopsided affair.

Duke will likely have the same troubles in this one, which is stopping the run. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 344 yards on them last year. They rank 11th in the FBS in rushing (297.2 ypg) behind quarterback Justin Thomas (6.0 ypc) and Zach Laskey (5.0 ypc). Duke has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of its last three games to Kansas, Tulane and Miami.

It’s really sad that the Blue Devils gave up that many yards to both Kansas and Tulane and shows what kind of poor shape this rush D is really in.  Sure, Duke does get a bye to prepare for Georgia Tech, but that is the only factor it has working in its favor.  A bye is not going to magically upgrade their talent on defense, which is what they need to be able to stop this potent Yellow Jackets rushing attack.  David Cutcliffe is 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play as the coach of Duke.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off their bye week, so they have two full weeks to prepare for Indiana, which is a huge advantage. They did look shaky in the early going this season with a 2-1 start that included a loss to Iowa State.  However, they have gotten a lot better in their two games since, which have been their two most impressive performances of the season.

Quarterback C.J. Bethard replaced an injured Jake Rudock midway through the Pittsburgh game a couple weeks ago.  He led Iowa to a come-from-behind 24-20 road victory over the Panthers as 6.5-point underdogs.  Bethard continued his solid play the next week, leading Iowa to a 24-10 road win at Purdue as an 8.5-point favorite.

Head coach Kirk is beating around the bush with the media about who is going to play quarterback this week now that Rudock is healthy.  However, with Bethard being the reason for the solid play the last two weeks by this team, there's almost no doubt in my mind that he will get the nod.  He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the last two games compared to Rudock's 6.3 yards per attempt against softer competition in the first three-plus games.  His ability to throw the deep ball opens up the Iowa rushing attack.

Indiana is being overvalued right now due to its 31-27 road win at Missouri.  I was on Indiana in that game because it was a huge lookahead spot for the Tigers, who had their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina the following week.  They caught the Tigers in a spot where they were ripe for the upset.

Really, that was the Hoosiers' only strong performance this season.  They have two terrible efforts in a 42-45 road loss at Bowling Green as a 9-point favorite, and a 15-37 home loss to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite.  Those two performances are more indicative of what kind of team Indiana is rather than the upset win at Missouri.

This is a great matchup for Iowa because its strength is stopping the run, while Indiana's strength is its rushing attack.  The Hoosiers are averaging 300 yards per game on the ground this season.  However, Iowa is only giving up 93 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's really impressive when you consider the teams they have played average 145 yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.

Iowa has won four of its last five meetings with Indiana with its only loss coming in 2012 by a final of 21-24 on the road.  The Hawkeyes are a real contender to win the Big Ten West Division this season, and they know that they cannot afford to overlook a team like Indiana.  They won't fall victim this week because they have had two weeks to prepare and are itching to get back on the field.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Indiana is 0-13 ATS in its last 13 games after outrushing its last opponents by 200 or more yards.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS off a win by 17 or more points over the last three seasons.  Thee Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in their last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State -10

Fresno State (3-3) is coming off a 24-13 home victory over San Diego State last week for its third win in a row. UNLV (1-5) has lost four in a row, including its 10-33 road loss at the hands of San Jose State last week.

The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with three straight wins and covers following three straight losses and ATS defeats to open the season. Those three losses came against three of the better teams in the country in USC, Utah and Nebraska. They really got the Bulldogs battle-tested heading into conference play, and they have looked like a much better team against inferior competition.

They beat Southern Utah 56-16, New Mexico 35-24 on the road, and San Diego State 24-13 at home. Their defense has really showed some life by limiting each of their last three opponents to 382 or less yards, including the 270 yards to the Aztecs last week. Their offense has also come around with 694 total yards against Southern Utah and 593 total yards against New Mexico. This team is really hitting on all cylinders right now.

UNLV has gone 1-5 against the spread in 2014 after making a bowl game last year. This team has been overvalued all season long to say the least. Its only cover came as an 18-point underdog to San Diego State in a 17-point loss. All five of its losses have come by 14 or more points this season, and its only win came against FCS foe Northern Colorado by a final of 13-12 as a 27.5-point home favorite.

The Rebels have really been bitten by injuries this season. Starting quarterback Blake Decker was injured in last week’s 10-33 loss to San Jose State in which they were outgained by 321 total yards by the Spartans in perhaps their worst effort of the year. Backup Nick Sherry was awful as his replacement, completing just 5 of 18 passes for 45 yards with no touchdowns and one pick.

Decker is questionable to return this week. This is an offense that was already without last year’s top receiver in Devante Davis (87 receptions, 1,290 yards, 14 TD in 2013), who has missed the past two games and is questionable to return this week.  Also, leading rusher Keith Whitely (299 yards, 4.9/carry) is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

The Rebels really need these players to be healthy because their offense is going to have a hard time keeping up with opponents due to their porous defense. Indeed, the Rebels are giving up an average of 38.7 points and 545.3 yards per game this season. That’s really bad when you consider that their five opponents this season average just 25.9 points and 418 total yards per game on the year.

Fresno State has owned UNLV by going 10-0 in the last 10 meetings with an average score of 38-16. All 10 wins came by 11 points or more. That includes last year’s 38-14 triumph by the Bulldogs that was completely a one-sided affair. The Bulldogs outgained the Rebels 641-294 for the game. Look for Fresno State to score at will offensively, and to get enough stops against this injury-riddled UNLV offense to cover the number Friday.

Plays on road favorites (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Fresno State Friday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico +4.5

San Diego State (2-3) is coming off a 13-24 road loss to Fresno State last week as a 3.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-3) is coming off a huge upset win at UTSA by a final of 21-9 as a 16.5-point underdog.

San Diego State head coach Rocky Long said on Sunday that senior quarterback Quinn Kaehler is expected to miss a second straight game after sitting out the 13-24 loss to Fresno State last week. That means freshman QB Nick Bawden will get another start after a disastrous effort against the Bulldogs. Bawden threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and those three turnovers led to 14 points for Fresno State.

Bawden went just 9-of-24 passing for 84 yards with one touchdown on those three turnovers against Fresno State. The loss of Kaehler, who threw for 3,007 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, certainly hurts. The offense was already without last year’s leading receiver in Ezell Ruffin, who had 68 receptions for 1,136 yards and three scores n 2013. That means the offense has lost each of its top four receivers from last year, which makes it tougher on Bawden as he has no playmakers outside.

After a frustrating 24-35 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, New Mexico showed a lot of resolve last week by going on the road and coming away with a 21-9 victory over a very good UTSA team. It outgained the Roadrunners 370-341 for the game as it put up 283 yards on the ground and 5.9 per carry. Look for the Lobos to control this game behind a potent rushing attack that is averaging 323 yards per game and 6.1 per carry on the season.

The Lobos had won eight straight meetings with the Aztecs prior to losing the last four. However, three of the last four losses have been by 10, 5 and 3 points. They will certainly want some revenge this time around, and should have a good chance of getting it as this is Bob Davie’s best team yet. They only lost 30-35 last year at SDSU as a 14-point underdog and were only outgained 483-423. The home team has won four of the last five meetings.

This is Rocky Long’s worst team yet at San Diego State. This team has really been inept on the road this season.  The Aztecs are 0-3 away from home, scoring just 15.7 points per game while giving up 27.7 points per contest.  They only managed 215 total yards in a 7-28 loss at Oregon State.  They were also held to only 13 points and 270 total yards last week against a very suspect Fresno State defense.

New Mexico is a sensational 39-22 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Lobos are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* Royals/Orioles ALCS Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +120

The Kansas City Royals have some serious mojo going right now.  After coming back from a 7-3 deficit to beat Oakland in extra innings in the wild card game, the Royals went on to sweep the Angels in the ALCS.

They became the first team in MLB history to win three straight extra-innings games in the postseason.  That has given them the confidence to know that they can win in any pressure-packed situation, and in the most dire circumstances.

James Shields pitched against the A's and won the clinching game against the Angels.  Since the Royals have had four days off in between games, they have the luxury of sending their ace back out their for Game 1 of this series.

Shields has been superb this season, going 15-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.189 WHIP over 36 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 19 starts away from home. 

Shields is also 11-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 26 career starts against the Orioles.  That includes a 2-1 record and a 2.35 ERA in his last three starts against them, where he has allowed just 6 earned runs over 23 innings.

Chris Tillman is having a fine season for Baltimore as well, but he has not fared well against Kansas City.  Indeed, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in four of those five starts.

The Royals are 22-4 in Shields' last 26 road starts.  The Royals are 12-1 in Shields' last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Kansas City is 6-0 in its last six games as an underdog.  Shields is 9-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  Shields is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive team wins over the last three seasons.  These last four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing Kansas City.  Roll with the Royals in Game 1 Friday.

20* Colts/Texans AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston +3

The Houston Texans have been one of the most improved teams in the league this season. They have gone 3-2 this season despite playing three games on the road. Both of their losses came away from home to the Giants and Cowboys, who are both playing tremendous football of late. The Texans have won both of their home games with a 17-6 triumph over Washington in the opener and a 23-17 win over Buffalo in Week 4.

Houston’s defense has been one of the better stop units in the league this year. It ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at just 17.4 points per game allowed this season. This is a unit that has been one of the best in the league over the past four years, so this should come as no surprise. Look for the defense to limit the Indianapolis Colts’ offense in this one and to keep this game close for four quarters.

Last year, the Texans played well against the Colts defensively. They held Andrew Luck and company to just 331 yards on the road and 314 yards at home in their two meetings. In fact, the Texans led the Colts 24-6 late in the third quarter at home, but blew that lead and eventually lost by a final of 24-27 as nothing went right for this team last year. They even outgained the Colts 483-314 in that contest and obviously should have won. They want revenge in this one.

It’s amazing how much better of a team the Texans are when they have a healthy Arian Foster. He has rushed for 404 yards and three touchdowns in four games this season while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He is clearly still one of the best backs in the NFL, and a weapon that the Texans use a ton.

The Texans should have good success on the ground in this one as the Colts are giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry on the season.  While Foster has voiced his displeasure about playing on Thursday's leading up to this game, his performance on the field begs to differ.  Foster has averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four touchdowns in three career Thursday games.

I believe the short week actually favors the Texans in this one.  They are familiar with the Colts, who run the same systems they did last year.  The Colts are not familiar with the Texans, who have completely different schemes under new head coach Bill O'Brien.  Only getting three days to prepare for those new schemes is a huge disadvantage for the Colts.

"It's a huge game for us," offensive tackle Duane Brown said.  "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy."

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) – after two straight dominating performances where they held the ball for 34-plus minutes and recorded 24-plus first downs are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1983. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* BYU/UCF ESPN Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46

The season-ending injury to BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is going to derail their season. He was a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and the reason this team was a sleeper to make the four-team playoff. He was having another fine game against Utah State last week before going out with a broken leg. Backup Christian Stewart was atrocious in his place, completing just 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with no touchdown and three picks.

Stewart is not even one-fourth of the quarterback that Hill was. While he should be better with a full week to prepare to run the offense, he just lacks the leadership and dual-threat ability that Hill had. He’ll be up against another great defense this week in UCF, which is giving up just 20.7 points and 334.2 yards per game this season.  The Knights limited Houston to just 12 points and 331 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers in their 17-12 road victory over the Cougars.

While the BYU offense will struggle due to a limited playbook for their backup quarterback, their defense will likely shoulder the load and keep them in this ball game.  That's because they will be up against a UCF offense that has been terrible this year.  Indeed, the Knights rank 122nd out of 128 teams in total offense at 281.0 yards per game this season.  They clearly miss Blake Bortles, who has left for the NFL and leaves behind one of the worst offenses in all of college football.

These teams last met in 2011 with BYU coming away with a 24-17 home victory for 41 combined points.  The total was set at 44 points for that game, and I believe we'll see a similar result here with the final combined score finishing less than 46 points.  These teams combined for just 659 total yards in that game, and I look for that number to be less in the rematch considering the poor shape that both of these offenses are in.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BYU) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), in non-conference games are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  BYU is 29-12 to the UNDER in its last 41 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cougars last five Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cougars last six road games.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knights last 43 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knights last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Nationals/Giants Division Series GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -134

The Washington Nationals showed a ton of heart last night to keep their season alive with a 4-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants in Game 3.  I look for them to win Game 4 due to their edge on the mound tonight and to send this game back to Washington.

Gio Gonzalez is having another fine season for the Nationals, going 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 27 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in his last three.  Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in seven career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong is must a mediocre starter in this league.  The right-hander has gone 8-13 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in 32 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three.

The biggest reason I have made this a Game of the Year play is that Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in five career starts against Washington.  In two starts against the Nationals this season, Vogelsong allowed nine earned runs and 19 base runners over 11 1/3 innings.

Gonzalez is 31-12 (+15.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last two seasons.  Vogelsong is 1-8 (-7.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.  Gonzalez is 77-34 (+30.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher in his career.

The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Washington is 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 starts vs. National League West foes.  The Giants are 1-12 in their last 13 games as a home underdog.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Vogelsong's last six starts as a home underdog.  These four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing Washington.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Seahawks/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +7.5

I believe the Redskins are undervalued here because they are coming off such a poor performance last week against the Giants where they essentially gave the game away by committing six turnovers. Meanwhile, the public perception is very high on the Seahawks off their win over the Broncos. They also have a bye week coming in, but that’s not as big of a factor here because the Redskins played last Thursday, so they essentially are getting half a bye week as well.

There has been a recent trend where teams have been blown out on Thursday Night Football and then come back as underdog to win outright in their next game.  It happened a couple weeks ago as the Steelers lost to the Ravens 26-6 before coming back the following Sunday to crush the Panthers.  The Bucs were beaten 14-56 at Atlanta and came back the next Sunday to beat the Steelers on the road as 7.5-point underdogs.

This is a make or break game for the Redskins, who have been much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. They actually rank 2nd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 91.0 yards per game. They rank 8th in total defense (324.3 yards/game) and 4th in total offense (415.3 yards/game) coming into the week. That is the sign of a very good team, not one that is 1-3 on the season.

We all know about Seattle’s dominance at home over the past few years. However, this team has not been nearly as effective on the road. The Seahawks are 0-1 on the road this season with a 21-30 loss at San Diego despite being a 5-point favorite. They were really dominated in that game as they only put up 288 yards of offense and gave up 377 yards on defense, getting outgained by 89 yards in the loss.

Plays on underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) – with a poor scoring defense – allowing 24 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Redskins have won each of their last six regular season meetings with the Seahawks. Seattle is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following a bye week. The Seahawks are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games in October.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

15* Nationals/Giants NLDS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +124

I look for the Washington Nationals to go on the road Monday and get a win in San Francisco to extend this series.  They lost each of the first two games by a single run, which is disheartening, but this team doesn't have any quit in them.  They have been the best team in the National League all season.

Doug Fister is getting no love from the oddsmakers here despite having a stellar season.  The right-hander is 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.079 WHIP In 25 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in his last three. 

Fister has posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.  In two road starts against the Giants, he has given up only one earned run over 13 innings for a minuscule 0.69 ERA.

Madison Bumgarner is having a solid season for the Giants as well.  However, he has been much less effective at home, going 7-6 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.244 WHIP over 15 starts this year.

Fister is 8-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter this season.  Washington is 28-10 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last two seasons.  The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Giants are 5-11 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Washington is 18-6 in Fister's last 24 starts.  Take the Nationals Monday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +7

The San Diego Chargers are overvalued right now due to their three straight victories, while the New York Jets are undervalued due to their three straight losses coming in. Oddsmakers have tacked on a few too many points to the Chargers here as I believe they should only be about a 4-point favorite.

The value is clearly with the road underdog Jets, who need a win this week if they want any chance of making the playoffs. They have to be optimistic because they are only one game back in the AFC East, which is wide open.  Three teams are tied fir the division lead at 2-2, meaning the Jets are just one game back and right in it.

I have no doubt that the Jets are better than a 1-3 team. All three of their losses have come to good teams in the Packers, Bears and Lions. All three were one-possession games as they were decided by eight points or less. It is a sign that this team is a lot more competitive in 2014, and they should be showing some great value going forward as they will remain under the radar because of their record to this point.

The one stat that shows the Jets are better than their record is that they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 75.0 yards per game on the season. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (366.3 yards/game), and 3rd in total defense (291.3 yards/game). Geno Smith is receiving a lot of grief, but the team held an offensive players-only meeting and will likely rebound on that side of the ball this week.

“No grievances,” Smith said. “I understand the semantics are a huge thing in this market, but no grievance. I don’t want you guys to get that misunderstood. No one’s hanging their head around here, no one’s sad, no one’s down on themselves. We’re ready to go out and play.”

Simply put, the Chargers are overvalued due to their perfect 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule. They have a false sense of security right now after their blowout win over the Jaguars last week. I look for them to slip up this week, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Here is a list of the players who are questionable for San Diego: DE Corey Liuget, WR Malcolm Floyd, C Rich Ohrnberger, CB Jason Verrett, LB Jeremiah Attaochu, LB Reggie Walker.  These are the guys that are doubtful or out: CB Shareece Wright, LB Manti Te'o, LB Melvin Ingram, RB Danny Woodhead, RB Ryan Matthews, C Nick Hardwick, G Jeromey Clary.  Most of these guys listed are starters, so the Chargers are really having to go deep on their 53-man roster to find replacements.

San Diego is 0-7 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs during the last three seasons. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to San Diego.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

This is really a make or break game for the St. Louis Rams, who cannot afford to fall to 1-3 if they want any chance of making the playoffs. They will be laying it all on the line this week to get a victory. They will also the the fresher, more prepared team after having Week 4 off due to a bye. That’s going to be a huge advantage for them as they’ll be taking on a Philadelphia team that is simply banged up right now.

The Eagles were manhandled by the 49ers 26-21 last week. The only reason that game was close was because Philadelphia got three gift return touchdowns with two on special teams and one on defense. Their offense was limited to just 213 total yards with four turnovers against the 49ers. They suffered more injuries in that game that will really hurt them going forward.

Philadelphia’s entire starting offensive line returned intact this year. All five starters started all 16 games last season as it got very lucky in the health department. Last week against the 49ers, only one starting offensive lineman from last year was in the game at one point. That was Jason Peters, who even left last week’s game at one point with an injury.  This beat up O-line will struggle against one of the best D-Lines in the league in St. Louis.

After ranking 1st in the league in rushing last year, the Eagles are only 27th in rushing this year, averaging 87 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  That alone shows you the kind of shape the offensive line is in.  They have only rushed for a total of 76 yards over the last two weeks combined while averaging 2.1 yards per carry.  Nick Foles hasn't had any time in the pocket, and he's starting to watch for rushers instead of keeping his eyes downfield.  He has also taken a lot of hits through the first four weeks of the season.

St. Louis has been a completely different team since its ugly loss to Minnesota in Week 1. It went on the road to Tampa Bay and came away with a 19-17 victory as a 4-point underdog. It then led Dallas 21-3 early in the game before letting the lead slip away, eventually losing 31-34. It actually outgained the Cowboys by 108 total yards in that game and should have won, but had a dropped would-be touchdown by Jared Cook and had to settle for a field goal, which proved to be the difference.

The win over the Bucs and the narrow loss to the Cowboys both look a lot better after last week’s results, with the Bucs beating the Steelers on the road, and the Cowboys blowing out the Saints. The biggest reason for the Rams’ resurgence has been the play of backup quarterback Austin Davis. He leads the league with a ridiculous 72.3 completion percentage, and his 8.0 yards per attempt ranks 6th among quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Davis should have his way with a Philadelphia defense that was awful last year and hasn't been any better in 2014.  The Eagles rank 28th in the league in total defense at 391.2 yards per game allowed.  They have been owned in the running game and the passing game at times.  They gave up 169 rushing yards to the Colts in Week 2 and 218 to the 49ers last week.  They allowed 427 passing yards to the Redskins in Week 3.  Not helping matters is that their best defender in LB Mychal Kendricks missed last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Also, starting CB Brandon Boykin is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Simply put, the Eagles have no home-field advantage. They have gone a woeful 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. Time and time again, they have been overvalued at home. They were lucky to come back from a 17-0 deficit at home to the Jaguars in their opener. They also trailed Washington for the majority of the game in their last home contest, eventually winning 37-34 as a 4-point favorite. There’s a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well. 

Plays against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 80-36 (69%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York Giants -4

It was going to take some time for the new West Coast System to come along in New York. The first two games were certainly not up to par offensively, but the last two have shown that Eli Manning is finally starting to get comfortable. The Giants beat the Texans 30-17 at home in Week 3 before going on the road and topping the Redskins 45-14 last week.

Manning went 21-of-28 passing for 234 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans, while Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a score in the win. Manning went 28-of-39 for 300 yards and four touchdowns with one pick against the Redskins. The Giants also managed to rush for 154 yards as a team. The improvement of Manning, coupled with a balanced offensive attack thanks to a new-found ground game, have really shown through the past two weeks.

Now, the Giants will be the fresher team in this one because they played last Thursday and have had an extra three days to rest. The Falcons could really use some rest after their embarrassing 28-41 loss to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater last week. They have all kinds of injury problems right now that won't be fixed in a week's time.

Indeed, the Falcons were forced to use their starting tight end at right tackle against Minnesota because of all of the injuries suffered along the offensive line during the loss. Center Joe Hawley, guard Justin Blalock, tackle Lamar Holmes, guard Jon Asamoah, tackle Sam Baker and tackle Mike Johnson are all injured. There’s a good chance that none of these guys play this week as they are all either listed as questionable or out.  Also, third receiver Harry Douglas is questionable after missing last week with a foot injury.

That's bad news for Matt Ryan as he figures to be under pressure all game long against a Giants' defense that is vastly improved up front and in the secondary.  They harassed Ryan Fitzpatrick and forced him into three interceptions in Week 3.  Kirk Cousins was under constant pressure last week, which led to him throwing four interceptions as the Redskins turned the ball over six times.  Both of those teams have much better offensive lines than the one the Giants will be teeing off on Sunday.

Atlanta has just as big of problems on the other side of the ball. It could not stop anyone last year defensively, and that appears to be the case again in 2014. The Falcons gave up a whopping 558 total yards to the Vikings last week with 241 on the ground and 317 through the air. They also allowed 472 yards to the Bengals and 472 yards to the Saints. They currently rank 31st in the league in total defense at 429.8 yards per game.  They are expected to be without their defensive leader in safety William Moore, who suffered a shoulder injury last week and has been placed on the IR.

The Falcons are 1-9 in their last 10 road games dating back to last season.  They are getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game on the road this season.  Their 10-24 loss at Cincinnati in Week 2 was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were actually outgained 309-472 in that contest and the Bengals missed three field goals.  They just don't play well on the road, especially outdoors.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Atlanta is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. New York is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +6.5

The Dallas Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the Saints Sunday night. I do have to admit that the Cowboys have been better than expected, but at the same time this team has a lot of flaws that will be exposed in the coming weeks. They won’t be in a great state of mind mentally off that big win. I believe they are simply overvalued here due to their three straight victories as they should not be more than a 3 to 4-point favorite in this one.

Without question, Dallas still has a defense that is extremely vulnerable, just as it was last season when it ranked dead last in the league in total defense. It is giving up 379.9 yards per game thus far in 2014 to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Those numbers would be worse if the Cowboys didn’t hold the ball for over 40 minutes against the Titans. They also had the ball for most of the San Francisco game due to turnovers and short fields for the 49ers.  They did give up 438 total yards to the Saints last week but were bailed out by turnovers.

Now, star cornerback Morris Claiborne is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL suffered last week.  Also, starting linebacker Bruce Carter is expected to miss Sunday's game due to a quad injury.  This is a defense that was already without LB Sean Lee and DE Demarcus Lawrence.  Everyone is saying that the Cowboys' defense isn't as bad as it was last year, but give it some time and I believe you will see that it is every bit as bad due to the lack of talent and the injuries.

Houston was a team I had my eye on coming into this season as being the most improved in the league. That has proven to be the case thus far as it has opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. I still believe the Texans aren’t getting the respect they deserve from the books, and that is reflected in this line as they are a 6.5-point underdog. The betting public is jumping on the Dallas bandwagon while completely ignoring the 3-1 start by the Texans.

This is such a big letdown spot for the Cowboys. Not only are they coming off the win over the Saints last week, they also have a road trip to Seattle on deck next week. I foresee them laying an egg here, which is something they have been accustomed to doing over the last several years. That will allow the Texans to stay within the number and possibly pull off the upset. Either way, I’m not so sure that Houston isn’t the better team here anyway.

Plays against favorites (DALLAS) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Dallas is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 off a game where it controlled the ball for 34-plus minutes and had 24-plus first downs.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -10

The New Orleans Saints certainly have their backs against the wall now after an ugly 1-3 start to the season that nobody could have predicted. They lost on last-second field goals on the road to both the Falcons and Browns in their first two games. They were blown out by the Cowboys 17-38 last week in a game that was closer than the final would indicate. They were only outgained 438-445 by the Cowboys, but shot themselves in the foot by finishing -3 in turnover differential.

The schedule has been tough to this point, but it gets much easier the rest of the way as they still have seven home games remaining. In their lone home game this season, the Saints took care of business in a 20-9 victory over Minnesota as a 9.5-point favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained the Vikings 396-247 for the game.

To say the Saints have been a covering machine at home would be a massive understatement. Indeed, New Orleans is a perfect 17-0-1 ATS in its last 18 home games with Sean Payton as head coach dating back to the start of the 2011-12 season, including playoffs. New Orleans has outscored opponents by an average of 17.6 points in winning each of its nine games at the Superdome since the start of 2013.

While I have no doubt the Saints are better than their 1-3 record and could easily be 3-1 right now, the Bucs are every bit as bad as their 1-3 record and should be 0-4. The Steelers simply let them off the hook last week with all kinds of penalties and some questionable play calling toward the end. Remember, this team lost at home to both Carolina and St. Louis to open the season before getting throttled at Atlanta 14-56 in Week 3.

The Saints have proven that they have the firepower on offense this year.  They rank 3rd in the league in total offense at 425.8 yards per game.  I just don't believe the Bucs have the firepower to keep up with them in this one.  Indeed, Tampa Bay ranks just 30th in the league in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  I realize the Saints' defense hasn't been great on the road, but they are a completely different animal at home when they feed off the energy of their home fans.

New Orleans is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tampa Bay while outscoring the Bucs by an average of 17.2 points per game. Each of the last three home meetings have resulted in blowout victories with the Saints winning by 25, 41 and 11 points, respectively.

The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. awful passing defensive that allow 260 or more yards per game. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC foes. The Saints are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games. Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

20* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +13.5

The Utah Utes (3-1) are a one-point loss to Washington State (27-28) last week away from being undefeated on the season.  They have blown out Fresno State (59-27) at home as well as coming away with an impressive win at Michigan State (26-10).  They have played a tough schedule to this point and have shown that they are a much-improved team in 2014.

UCLA (4-0) did not look good in the first three weeks of the season.  It failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games, winning at Virginia (28-20) as a 19-point favorite, beating Memphis (42-35) at home as a 22-point favorite, and knocking off Texas (20-17) on the road as an 8-point favorite.  Those results were certainly reason to worry about the Bruins.

However, they came back with an inspired effort last week after having lost to Arizona State last year, which cost them a shot at a Pac-12 Title.  Of course they were going to be up for that game, and they showed it by throttling the Sun Devils (62-27) on the road.  The thing is that ASU is way down this season with only two returning starters on defense, plus they lost starting quarterback Taylor Kelly to injury, so he didn't even play in that game.  This team just isn't the same without Kelly running the show.

Now, the public perception is that UCLA is the team that we thought they were going to be coming into the season.  That could not be further from the truth.  I'm not willing to just throw out their first three games of the season, which showed that they weren't the team they were cracked up to be.  The Bruins still have a lot of flaws, yet they are being asked to win by two touchdowns against an improved Utah team this week to cover the spread.

There's no question that the Bruins are overvalued this week in my mind.  Now, they are in a very tough spot mentally.  They just got revenge on ASU and are undefeated on the season.  That alone sets them up for a letdown spot.  However, the bigger situational factor in play here is the fact that UCLA has Oregon on deck next week.  Without question, the Bruins will be looking ahead to that game, and the Utes won't have their full attention because of it.

We've seen the last two years that Utah is capable of beating UCLA, but it has come up just short both times.  UCLA beat Utah 21-14 as a 9.5-point home favorite in 2012, only outgaining the Utes 354-319 for the game.  Then, last year, the Utes lost 27-34 at home to the Bruins as a 5-point underdog.  They were only outgained 387-404 in that game, and the only reason they lost was because they committed a whopping six turnovers.  I look for this game to be decided by a touchdown or less as well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Utes pull the upset.

Plays against home favorites (UCLA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7.5

This is essentially a must-win game for LSU if it wants to compete for an SEC West Title. That extra motivation will certainly be in play here after the loss to Mississippi State in the conference opener. A very tough schedule thus far that has featured Wisconsin and the Bulldogs will have this team battle-tested as it goes into Auburn this weekend.

LSU fell way behind against Mississippi State, but rallied and made a game out of it late thanks to the play of sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris. He took the place of the ineffective Anthony Jennings in that game, and went 6-of-9 passing for 140 yards and two touchdowns to lead LSU back late.

Harris continued his stellar play against New Mexico State, going 11-of-14 for 178 yards and three touchdowns without a pick. All seven of his drives against the Aggies resulted in touchdowns for the Tigers.  Jennings has completed 50.6 percent of his passes (42 of 83) for 734 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. In a smaller body of work, Harris has completed 73.3 percent (22 of 30) for 394 yards and six scores with one INT.  This guy is the real deal and the future of the program.  He'll get the start this week.

Auburn is still overvalued after making the national title game last year. It won a whopping six games by a touchdown or less in 2013, and it already has one of those on its résumé thus far. It beat Kansas State on the road 20-14 in a game that it should have lost. The Wildcats missed three field goals in that game and committed three turnovers, including one that would have been a touchdown that bounce off a receiver’s chest and wound up being an interception in Auburn’s end zone.

LSU beat Auburn 35-21 at home last year to continue its domination in this series. Indeed, LSU has won six of the last seven meetings with Auburn. LSU led 21-0 at halftime last year with Auburn not once making it past the LSU 41-yard line. Auburn would make a bit of a comeback after halftime, but this game was already decided at that point as LSU handed Auburn its only regular season defeat.

Plays against home favorites (AUBURN) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. LSU is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game. Auburn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -14.5

While the spreads have been set pretty big for Baylor (4-0), the fact of the matter is that this team still doesn’t get enough respect from oddsmakers. It went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. It has already opened 3-0-1 ATS in 2014 with its only non-cover coming against Iowa State last week in a 49-28 win as a 21-point favorite. The Cyclones scored 21 points in the second half with the game already decided and Baylor taking the foot off the gas.

Don’t look for the Bears to take their foot off the gas in this one. Art Briles knows that his program is fighting for recruiting with Texas, and his team has been actually winning that battle recently. The only way to keep winning it is to continue beating Texas handily, so look for him to show no mercy in this game like he did last week against Iowa State when he pulled Bryce Petty and several starters after three quarters.

You can believe that Briles will be reminding his players of all the agony this program had to go through for a long time when Texas kept beating it repeatedly. The tables have turned, and now the Bears have won three of the last four meetings while going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They have put up over 500 yards of offense on Texas in each of the last three meetings as well.

The 30-10 win over the Longhorns last year was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bears outgained them 508-217 for the game. They would have won by more, but they were feeling the nerves of trying to win their first Big 12 Championship in the season finale and were tight.  They won't be tight in this one as this is an early-season matchup and they'll be looking to make a statement once again.

Texas is in rebuilding mode right now. It has already suffered two losses this season with an embarrassing 7-41 setback against BYU, and a 17-20 home loss to UCLA. That game against the Bruins was a bigger blowout than the final score shows as the Longhorns were outgained 322-443 for the game. Brett Hundley had to leave that game early in the first quarter, forcing UCLA to use its backup quarterback for nearly all four quarters, and yet it still won.  The perception that the Longhorns played the Bruins tough is a contributing factor in keeping this number lower than it should be.

The Longhorns are without their starting quarterback and three starting offensive linemen. They have had nine players kicked off the team as Charlie Strong tries to put his imprint on the program. Sure, there are some players who are buying in, but these aren’t Strong’s players. They are having a tough time adjusting to his way of doing things, and not everybody is laying it all on the line for him right now.

The offense only managed 329 total yards against lowly Kansas last week, and they are averaging just 315.5 yards per game on the season.  They simply do not have the firepower to keep up with Baylor in this one.  One of the biggest reasons the Bears are underrated is because their offense gets all the credit.  Meanwhile, the defense is going under the radar, allowing just 13.7 points and 250.5 yards per game this season.  This is arguably the best stop unit in the Big 12.  The Bears certainly have the best D-Line in the conference.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bears are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Roll with Baylor Saturday.

15* Stanford/Notre Dame Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +2.5

I have been very impressed with Notre Dame this season behind the play of quarterback Everett Golson. It has opened 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with its only non-cover coming against Purdue (30-14) as a 30-point favorite. That was a clear letdown spot for the Irish off the big 31-0 win over Michigan as a 4-point favorite. It has also beaten Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite, and Syracuse 31-15 on the road as a 7.5-point favorite.

Golson is now 14-1 as a starter at Notre Dame with his only loss coming against Florida State in the 2012-13 BCS Championship. He is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,142 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 104 yards and four scores this year.

The junior was suspended for all of the 2013 season, which allowed him to work on his game while also watching from the outside to work on the mental side of it, too. It’s clearly paying big dividends this year as the offense is averaging 35.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, and Golson is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.

There's no denying that Stanford has an elite defense. It has put up tremendous numbers this season, but a closer look at the schedule shows that it hasn't been as impressive as it is perceived to be.  The Cardinal have not faced an offense as good as the one they will be up against this week.  Their four opponents have been Cal Davis, USC, Army and Washington.  USC is by far the best offensive team they have played, and Washington has one of the worst offenses in the Pac-12.

The problem for this team is the play of quarterback Kevin Hogan, who just holds the Cardinal down. They had nine trips inside the USC 30-yard line and only came away with 10 points, losing by a final of 10-13. Last week, the defense limited Washington to 13 points, but Hogan was only able to muster up 20 points as the Cardinal got a late score to win by a touchdown 20-13. That was not a very good Washington team, and USC is obviously not a great team either as it lost to Boston College.

Despite playing a tougher schedule than Stanford, the Fighting Irish have held their own defensively as well.  They are only giving up 11.5 points per game on the season.  They shut out Michigan 31-0 and have held all four of their opponents in Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse to 17 points or less.  The Cardinal may have a slight edge on defense, but the difference in this game will be Golson outplaying Hogan by a landslide, as well as the home-field for the Fighting Irish.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Stanford and Notre Dame. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. Even in a down year last season, the Irish hung tough on the road and only lost by a final of 20-27 as a 16.5-point underdog. With Golson running the show this time around, I look for him to improve to 15-1 as a starter overall, including 2-0 against Stanford.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Pac-12 opponents. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU +6

I picked TCU (3-0) to surprise and win the Big 12 this season and have seen nothing to this point to change my mind. This will be Oklahoma’s toughest test of the entire season, and I look for it to fail and come away with a loss in Forth Worth Saturday afternoon. The perception on the Horned Frogs is that they are down since they joined the Big 12, but they simply have had inexperience and close losses over the past two seasons.

Two of those close losses last year came to both Oklahoma and Baylor. The Horned Frogs were only beaten by the Sooners 17-20 on the road as a 10-point underdog. They then gave Baylor a run for their money in their season finale, losing 38-41 at home as a 13-point dog. Remember, this team went 4-8 last year, but they were much better than their record would indicate. That is going to show in 2014 as Gary Patterson has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and a hungry, talented, experienced bunch.

I love what the new up-tempo, spread offense is doing for the Horned Frogs this year. They are averaging 44.7 points and 532.0 yards per game behind the play of junior quarterback Trevone Boykin. He is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 858 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception, while also rushing for 183 yards and three scores.

The defense has been dynamite and is the backbone of this team after finishing 1st in the conference in total defense last year. The Frogs are giving up just 7.0 points and 218.7 yards per game. Their 30-7 win over Minnesota looks a lot better now after the Golden Gophers went into Michigan and came away with a 30-14 win last week. TCU held a very good Minnesota rushing attack to just 99 yards on 36 carries. It is allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry this season.

Admittedly, Oklahoma has been better than I expected it to be coming into the season. However, this team hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules. Also, its 34-10 win over Tennessee at home wasn’t the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Vols were going in for a TD in the fourth quarter that would have made it a 10-point game, but threw a 100-yard pick six. The 45-33 win at West Virginia saw the Mountaineers put up 513 total yards, but the three turnovers they committed really were the different in the game.

Despite not getting the results that they wanted in their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs played the Sooners tough in both meetings.  As stated before, they only lost 17-20 at Oklahoma last year.  They also lost 17-24 at home to Oklahoma in 2012.  Both meetings were decided by a touchdown or less, and this one is likely to come down to the wire as well, which is where the 6-point spread comes into play.  Except this time, because this is arguably Patterson's best TCU team yet, I look for the Frogs to pull the upset.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on any team (TCU) – with a great scoring defense – allowing 14 or less points/game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points are 87-44 (66.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. TCU is 59-37 ATS in its last 96 home games. The Horned Frogs are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Gary Patterson is 63-15 at home as the coach of TCU. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Mississippi State SEC No-Brainer on Mississippi State -2

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) are the real deal this season, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only a 2-point home favorite here. Dan Mullen has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and 57 lettermen who came back from last year’s squad. This is a team that started to show signs of life at the end of last year with close losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, and then three straight victories to close out the season.

They have picked up right where they left off with a perfect 4-0 start this year. The win at LSU really tells a lot about how far this team has come. The 34-29 final doesn’t do that game justice as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs led the Tigers 34-10 in the fourth quarter before a late rally by the Tigers made the final score look closer than it really was. Mississippi State outgained LSU 570-430 for the game.

Dak Prescott is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. He proved it against LSU, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score. Josh Robinson had a monster day on the ground, rushing for 197 yards and a touchdown as well. Prescott is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 378 yards and three scores on the year. Robinson has 485 rushing yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per carry.

Almost everyone jumped on the Texas A&M bandwagon after a 52-28 win over South Carolina in the opener. That win doesn’t look nearly as good now as the Gamecocks already have two losses this season and are clearly down. Three straight blowout wins over lesser competition further upped the hype on the Aggies. However, in their 38-10 win over Rice, they were actually outgained 481-477 for the game. Then their weaknesses really showed against Arkansas last week.

Texas A&M really had no business beating Arkansas, but wound up doing so by a final of 35-28 in overtime despite trailing 28-14 late in the third quarter. The defense is the real problem for the Aggies. They gave up those 481 yards to Rice, and then they allowed 484 yards to the Razorbacks. A whopping 285 of those came on the ground. Now, they'll be up against another elite rushing attack this week, and also a team that throws the football a lot better than Arkansas.

Mississippi State hung tough at Texas A&M last year in a 41-51 road loss as a 19.5-point underdog. It actually outgained the Aggies 566-537 for the game while racking up 299 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. Prescott was splitting time with Tyler Russell at quarterback in that game and still threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 154 yards on 16 carries. Having to face Prescott for a full four quarters will expose this A&M defense even more.

Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when facing a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after gaining 450 or more yards in three consecutive games. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

These five trends combine for a 36-2 ATS system backing the Bulldogs.  Finally, Mississippi State has had a bye week to get ready for Texas A&M, which will be a huge advantage heading into this one.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -7.5

Once Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in Week 2, I knew there was going to be a lot of value in backing this team going forward.  That has proven to be the case as they have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two games since with a 66-0 home win over Kent State as a 31-point favorite and a 50-28 home victory over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite.  Unfortunately, I didn't back the Buckeyes against Kent State, but I did roll them last week against Cincinnati.

I'm on the Buckeyes again this week for many of the same reasons.  This is still arguably the best team in the Big Ten.  The problem early in the season was the play of freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett, but this youngster has improved by leaps and bounds the last two weeks.  After all, he was the second-ranked QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, so it was only a matter of time before he'd start to shine.

He has done just that these last two weeks.  Barrett went 23 of 30 passing for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one pick while leading the Buckeyes to 628 yards of total offense against Kent State.  He came back with another strong performance against a much better team in Cincinnati last week.  He went 26 of 36 passing for 330 yards and four touchdowns without a pick, while also rushing for 79 yards in the win. 

So, over the last two weeks combined, he is putting up Heisman Trophy-like numbers with 642 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one pick.  You can look, but you won't find another head coach that has had better success with quarterbacks than Urban Meyer, who has turned guys like Alex Smith, Troy Smith and Tim Tebow into superstars at the college level.  Meyer is also now 27-1 in the regular season as the coach of Ohio State.

Maryland (4-1) is certainly an improved team this year, but all four of its wins have come against mediocre competition in James Madison, South Florida, Syracuse and Indiana.  The one loss came against West Virginia at home, and even that contest was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Terrapins were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 447-694 for the game.  If the defense gave up nearly 700 yards to WVU, just imagine what Barrett and company are going to do in this one.

Meyer is now 93-56 ATS in all games he has coached.  Meyer is 38-13 ATS off a non-conference game in all games he has coached.  Randy Edsall is 2-12 ATS off a game where his team forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Terrapins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.  It's also worth nothing that Maryland QB C.J. Brown is questionable to play this week after suffering an injury against Indiana, tho early reports are that he will start.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Utah State +21

Both BYU (4-0) and Utah State (2-2) are coming off byes heading into this one. The Cougars were last seen beating Virginia 41-33 as a 16-point home favorite. The Aggies were last in action with a 14-21 (OT) road loss at Arkansas State as a 2.5-point dog.

In these rivalry games, I usually look to take the underdog when the spread is this big. These games are played much closer to the vest, and they tend to be closer than expected when the favorite is laying this many points. The Aggies have hung tough in this rivalry by going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with their biggest loss coming by 20 points during this span. Two of their last their last three losses to the Cougars have come by a field goal.

BYU comes into this game overvalued due to its perfect start to the season, which included a blowout win at Texas. It has clearly been overvalued in its last two games, which both have come at home. It was a 17-point favorite over Houston and only won 33-25. It was also a 16-point favorite against Virginia and only won 41-33. I could easily see this game going down to the wire, let alone the Aggies staying within three touchdowns.

Utah State is not getting much love here because it was blown out at Tennessee in its opener. However, the Vols are much better than they get credit for, as evidenced by last week’s three-point road loss at Georgia. The 14-21 loss at Arkansas State looks bad too, but the Aggies actually outplayed the Red Wolves in a losing effort. They outgained them 413-316 for the game and should have won.

Sure, starting quarterback Chuckie Keaton is injured and may be done for the year, but backup Darrell Garretson has actually put up better numbers than Keaton this season. Indeed, he is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 389 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while filling in for Keaton. He completed 27 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one pick in the loss to Arkansas State and has had nearly two weeks of practice to get ready for this one.

Utah State tends to have one of the more underrated defenses in the country year in and year out. Despite all the losses on this side of the ball in the offseason, the Aggies have held their own. They are only allowing 334.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play while forcing 11 turnovers through four games. This stop unit has familiarity working in its favor having faced BYU each of the past six seasons.

The strength of the Utah State defense is its run D, which is allowing 78 yards per game and 2.2 per carry. BYU relies heavily on its rushing attack, averaging 230 yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for Utah State, especially with its familiarity with the Cougars' offense.

BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. excellent run defenses that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off one or more consecutive losses. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS off a home win over the past three seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-135)

We are getting serious value on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line in Game 1 of this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Clayton Kershaw being nearly a 2-1 favorite on the money line over Adam Wainwright is an absolute joke, and we'll take advantage by backing the Cardinals on the run line in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way.

If not for Kershaw, Wainwright would be your 2014 NL Cy Young winner.  He has gone 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over 32 starts, yet he doesn't get near the recognition that Kershaw does.  Look for him to take this one personal and to be on top of his game tonight.

Wainwright has been at his best on the road this season, going 11-6 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 18 road starts.  He saved his best stuff for last as well, going 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three starts.

Wainwright has posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 13 career starts against Los Angeles.  Kershaw, meanwhile, is 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 17 career starts against St. Louis. 

In Wainwright's 13 starts against Los Angeles, only twice have the Cardinals lost by more than one run.  In Kershaw's 17 starts against St. Louis, only four times have the Dodgers won by more than one run.

Kershaw is 1-10 against the run line (-9.5 Units) in home games after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last three seasons.  Kershaw is 3-17 against the run line (-14.6 Units) in home games in Friday games in his career.   The Cardinals are 53-24 in Wainwright's last 77 starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on Arizona +24

Both Oregon (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) and Arizona (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) are coming off bye weeks. The Ducks were last seen beating Washington State 38-31 on the road as a 23-point favorite on September 20th. The Wildcats are coming off a 49-45 home win over California thanks to a hail mary for a touchdown on the final play of the game.

The Ducks have been a huge public team over the last few years, which is why they have consistently been overvalued this season, and appear to be overvalued again as a 24-point favorite in this one. The public continues to back them religiously, which is why their numbers have been set too high. They have gone just 1-3 ATS in 2014 and were fortunate to cover against Michigan State, needing 28 unanswered points in the second half to win 46-27 as a 14-point favorite.

That game against the Spartans was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Ducks only outgained them 491-466. They only outgained Wyoming by 117 total yards in their 48-14 victory, another contest that was closer than the final score. Then, they only outgained Washington State 501-499 in their narrow 38-31 road victory last time out as a 23-point favorite.

Oregon’s defense has been torched by opposing quarterbacks for an average of 315 passing yards per game this season. It gave up 343 yards to Michigan State, 284 yards to Wyoming, and 436 yards to Washington State through the air. Now, Oregon will be up against a high-powered Arizona offensive attack that is averaging 42.0 points and 593.7 yards per game, including 366 passing yards per contest.

The Wildcats clearly have the offense that can put up points and allow them to stay within the number in this one. Anu Solomon is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not too many folks know about. He is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,454 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 167 yards on 39 carries. Cayleb Jones already has 29 receptions for 475 yards and six touchdowns as part of one of the best receiving corps in the land.

Scoring points has not been a problem for Arizona in this series with Oregon. Indeed, the Wildcats have put up 29 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Ducks. I believe 29 or more points is a foregone conclusion against this soft Oregon defense, which will allow them to stay within this 24-point spread as the Ducks likely won’t get to 50. Oregon is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +165

The Kansas City Royals have some serious momentum working in their favor heading into this series with the Angels.  They came back from 7-3 down against the A's in the wild card game to win 9-8.  They trailed by one run in the 9th inning and tied it up in the bottom half.  They also trailed by one run in the 12th inning, and then scored two runs to win it in the bottom half.

I like how the Royals didn't get away from who they are as a team in that win over Oakland.  They stole seven bases and played more tremendous defense.  Their speed and defense has been the best in the league this season.  I really look at them as a sleeper to win the World Series, especially off a win like that over the A's that is going to give them the belief that they can win under any circumstances.

Jason Vargas is 11-10 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 14 starts away from home this year.  He is getting no respect as a massive underdog to Jered Weaver and the Angels in this one.

Vargas is 5-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 14 career starts against Los Angeles.  In his last two road starts against the Angels, Vargas has gone 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA, allowing just two earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.  In fact, in seven career starts at Los Angeles, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of them, including one or less in five.

Los Angeles is 0-7 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more this season. The Royals are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog.  The Angels are 0-6 in their last six when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing Kansas City.  Roll with the Royals Thursday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota +9

The Minnesota Vikings are a much-improved team this season.  They have opened 2-2 with an impressive road win over St. Louis 34-6 as well as last week's home victory against the Atlanta Falcons by a final of 41-28. 

The loss to New England was much closer than the final score would indicate as the defense only gave up 292 total yards, but the Patriots took advantage of four Minnesota turnovers and were aided by a blocked field goal return for a TD.  The Vikings even hung tough against the Saints on the road in a 9-20 loss.

What a coming out party for rookie Teddy Bridgewater, who went 19 of 30 passing for 317 yards against the Falcons last week.  The Vikings also rushed for 241 yards in the win, and their 558 total yards were the fourth-most in franchise history.  Bridgewater had some rookie company in the backfield with running back Jerick McKinnon making his first splash, carrying 18 times for 135 yards. Veteran Matt Asiata had 20 carries for 78 yards and three scores.

"Being a defensive coach, when you have two different types of backs come in there it changes your mindset on some of your calls and also the players, they have to think a little bit differently," Zimmer told the team's official website. "It's not necessarily different plays all of the time - it's one guy can get to the perimeter faster, one guy can be a little bit more physical."

Sure, Bridgewater is listed as questionable for this game, but early reports are that he's feeling a lot better and should be ready to go.  Even if he's not, I like the Vikings' chances of covering this one with Christian Ponder.  The only reason this is only a 15* play instead of a 20* is the uncertainty over Bridgewater.

I really have not been impressed with the Packers at all this season.  They were dominated by both the Seahawks (16-36) and the Lions (7-19) on the road.  They were fortunate to erase a 21-3 deficit against the Jets to win 31-24 at home.  Their 38-17 win over Chicago last week was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Packers actually gave up 496 total yards to the Bears and were outgained by 138 yards for the game.

They were also outgained by 138 yards in the loss to the Lions, and 143 yards in the loss to the Seahawks.  In fact, Green Bay ranks 29th in the league in yards per game differential as it is getting outgained by a whopping 83.5 yards per game on average this season.  It ranks just 26th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 390.0 yards per game.  The Vikings should be able to run the football on a Packers' defense that ranks last in the league in allowing 176.0 yards per game on the ground.

The Minnesota defense, despite facing Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, has yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season.  However, teams are converting half of their 3rd downs against the Vikings, which is the second-worst mark in the league ahead of only the Packers (52.6 percent).  Mike Zimmer is a defensive mastermind and it's clearly eating at him.

"It's terrible," coach Mike Zimmer said. "We've got a lot of work to do. I'm extremely disappointed in that. We'll put a lot more time and effort into it than what we have."

The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC opponents.  Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Packers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Packers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take the Vikings Thursday.

Note - I still like the Vikings at +7.5 and would recommend a play on them at 7 or higher.

20* Giants/Pirates NL Wild Card Rout on Pittsburgh +103

The Pittsburgh Pirates have made the postseason for a second consecutive year.  They continue to get no respect from the books as a home underdog in this winner-take-all wild card game against the San Francisco Giants.  I'll take advantage and back the Pirates, who are 51-30 at home this season, and 20-13 against left-handed starters.

Edinson Volquez is in the midst of a career year.  The right-hander has gone 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 31 starts and one relief appearance.  He really stepped it up down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three starts.  Dating back further, he is 5-0 with a 1.36 ERA in his last 10 starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 66 innings.

There's no denying that Madison Bumgarner is one of the better starters in baseball, but he's getting too much respect from the books as a road favorite here in a hostile environment.  He gave up four runs and three homers over 7 1/3 innings in his final start of the season against the Dodgers.  Bumgarner has been beat up in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, going 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA while allowing eight earned runs, two homers and 19 base runners in 12 innings with only seven strikeouts.

Volquez is 20-6 (+15.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 21-4 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-1 in Volquez's last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 6-0 in Volquez's last six starts after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.

The Giants are 5-12 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 1-7 in its last eight games with a total set of 6.5 or lower.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 in its last seven during Game 1 of a series.  The Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven vs. a left-handed starter.  Pittsburgh is 39-18 in its last 57 home games.  The Pirates are 42-17 in their last 59 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Pittsburgh is 6-2 in its last eight home meetings with San Francisco.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

20* A's/Royals AL Wild Card Rout on Kansas City +101

The Kansas City Royals (89-73) played some clutch baseball down the stretch by winning six of its final eight games to clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 1985.  The electricity at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday Night for this wild card game is going to be something worth seeing, and it's going to be a huge advantage for the Royals.

The Oakland A's (88-74) stumbled into the playoffs.  They were 10 games up in the wild-card race on August 10th but needed Game 162 to win the final spot.  The A's lost 30 of their final 46 games.  Their .433 winning percentage since the All-Star break is the lowest in the history of a playoff team.

'Big Game' James Shields gets the ball for the Royals in this one.  The staff ace is having another stellar 2014 campaign, going 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 34 starts.  He has owned the A's of late, going 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.613 WHIP in his last four starts against them.  He has allowed just seven earned runs and 19 base runners over 31 innings in those four starts.

Jon Lester is one of the better starters in the league, there's no denying that.  There's also no denying that he has owned Kansas City throughout his career.  However, in his two most recent starts against the Royals this season, he has been vulnerable.  He has given up six earned runs and 18 base runners over 12 2/3 innings in two starts since the beginning of August for a 4.26 ERA and 1.421 WHIP.

Plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 90-47 (65.7%, +40.6 units) over the last five seasons.

Shields is 45-21 (+17.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last three seasons.  Oakland is 3-18 (-14.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  Shields is 25-9 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last three seasons. 

The A's are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Royals are 39-18 in Shields' last 57 starts.  Kansas City is 7-1 in Shields' last eight starts vs. AL West opponents.  Kansas City is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* Patriots/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -3

The New England Patriots travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 4. The Patriots have won each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 34-3 victory as a 17-point home favorite in their most recent head-to-head battle in 2011.

New England (2-1) has bounced back nicely from its 20-33 road loss to Miami in the opener. It has responded with a 30-7 road victory at Minnesota followed by a 16-9 home win against Oakland last week.

Kansas City (1-2) opened the season with an ugly 10-26 home loss to Tennessee. It played much better in a 17-24 road loss to Denver in Week 2, and then put together its best performance of the season in a 34-15 win at Miami last week.

The Patriots have shown throughout the years that they can win games one of two ways, but the fact of the matter is that they just keep winning. They can either beat you with one of the best offenses in the league and a suspect defense, which has been the case in recent years. However, this season they are proving that they can win with a not-so-dominant offense but a stellar defense.

Indeed, the Patriots are coming off two straight shutdown performances defensively. They held the Vikings to just 217 total yards and forced four turnovers in their 30-7 road victory two weeks ago. They also limited the Raiders to three field goals and just 241 yards in their 16-9 home win last week. They currently rank 3rd in the league in total defense at 272.7 yards per game.

I look for New England to shut down a weak Kansas City offense that ranks 23rd in the league at 322.3 yards per game. The Chiefs have suffered some key losses along the offensive line both due to offseason losses as well as injuries, and they haven’t been very good up front at all. Alex Smith is a limited passer with limited weapons. Jamaal Charles missed last week’s game against the Dolphins and is questionable to return this week.

The Kansas City defense is without starters Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito, while stud safety Eric Berry is doubtful to play this week. This is a stop unit that played terrible in the second half of last year and into the playoffs when they gave up 45 points to the Colts.  I believe this is a bottom-half-of-the-league defense again in 2014, especially with all of these injuries.

You have to believe that New England's offensive struggles are eating at Tom Brady, and he and the coaching staff will do everything they can to become more explosive this week. The fact of the matter is that you cannot hold this offense down for long.

Also, last week’s narrow win over Oakland coupled with Kansas City’s blowout of Miami has provided some line value here. The Patriots should be a bigger favorite, but last week’s performances have kept this number lower than it should be.  Getting the Patriots as only a field goal favorite is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers.

Plays on road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Kansas City is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 vs. AFC West opponents. The Patriots have won five of the last six meetings in this series. New England is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Week 4 games. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  They clearly don't have as good of a home-field advantage as they are perceived to have.  Bet the Patriots Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3

Dallas (2-1) has shown quite a bit of toughness since a 17-28 home loss to Dallas in the opener. It has gone on the road and beaten Tennessee 26-10 before erasing a 21-0 deficit to top St. Louis 34-31 last week.

New Orleans (1-2) suffered a pair of heartbreaking road losses to open the season against Atlanta (34-37) and Cleveland (24-26). It took out its frustration on Minnesota last week with a 20-9 home victory.

The Saints are actually undervalued due to their slow start to the season. That was the best thing that could have happened for Saints’ backers. I was on them last week as they barely covered the spread at home against the Vikings as a 10-point favorite with a 20-9 win.

However, a closer look shows that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Saints outgained the Vikings 396-247 for the game and should have won by more as they got back to their dominant ways defensively from last season.  They finished 4th in the league in total defense in 2013 and are better than they have shown on this side of the ball this year.

You can bet that Rob Ryan is going to want to stick it to his former team after the Cowboys fired him following the 2012 season, making him the scapegoat. He already did that once last year in a lopsided 49-17 home victory for the Saints, who outgained the Cowboys 625-193 for the game in a perfect performance on both sides of the ball. Drew Brees went 34-of-41 passing for 394 yards and four touchdowns in the win. The defense held Tony Romo to 10-of-24 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown.

That 32-point win for the Saints was no coincidence. In fact, to say this has been a one-sided series would be a gross understatement. New Orleans is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Dallas, which includes a perfect 4-0 road record over this span. The Saints have put up over 414-plus yards of total offense in four of the last five meetings, including 536-plus in three of those. The road team had won five straight in this series prior to last year's beat down by the Saints at home.

The Cowboys were really outplayed by the Rams last week. Their defense was shredded for 448 total yards, which is terrible when you consider the state the St. Louis offense is in right now. They were bailed out by three Rams’ turnovers. They will have their hands full against a New Orleans team that ranks 4th in the league in total offense this season at 421.7 yards per game.

Sean Payton is 20-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 24 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans. The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Cowboys have actually been much better on the road than they have been at home since building their billion-dollar stadium, and that has continued to be the case in 2014.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -183

Seattle (86-75) stayed alive for the second wild card with Saturday's 2-1, 11-inning victory. A win Sunday and an Oakland (87-74) loss would force a one-game playoff between the teams for the right to face either Kansas City or Detroit in the wild wild card game.

Los Angeles (98-63) has been resting most of its regulars since clinching the division title and has dropped four of six. It will send Cory Rasmus to the mound for his sixth start, though the bullpen likely will get plenty of work.  Rasmus hasn't pitched more than four innings in any of his starts this year.

Ace Felix Hernandez (14-6, 2.18 ERA) takes the mound looking not only for a win, but for the AL ERA title as well.  He is just behind Chris Sale (2.17 ERA) for that distinction, only adding fuel to the fire for him to dominate the Angels.

Hernandez has been stellar against AL West-champion Los Angeles this season, going 2-0 with a 0.94 ERA in four starts. He's struck out 40 Angels in 28 2/3 innings after fanning 11 while pitching seven scoreless innings of Seattle's 3-1 victory September 18th.

The Angels are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Mariners are 18-8 in Hernandez's last 26 starts.  Seattle is 8-1 in Hernandez's last nine starts after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  The Mariners are 6-0 in Hernandez's last six Sunday starts.  Seattle is 5-0 in  Hernandez's last five starts vs. Angels.  Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +14

San Diego (2-1) is just an 11-point blown lead against the Cardinals (17-18) in the opener away from being undefeated this season. It bounced back with a 30-21 home win against Seattle in Week 2, and carried that momentum over with a 22-10 road win at Buffalo last week.

Jacksonville (0-3) is one of three teams left to have not won a game this season. It blew a 17-point lead in the opener to the Eagles, getting outscored 34-0 in the second half. It has been all downhill since with a 10-41 road loss to Washington and a 17-44 home loss to Indianapolis over the past two weeks.

While it has not been a pleasant start to the season for the Jaguars, they at least have something to look forward to this week as rookie Blake Bortles will be making his first career start. He played better than Chad Henne in the preseason, and he gives this team their best chance to be competitive. I love the move by head coach Gus Bradley to try and inject some life into this team, and I look for it to work, starting this week.

Bortles came on in against the Colts last week and played pretty well. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 223 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Having an entire week of preparation to get ready to face the Chargers will certainly pay dividends and make the transition much smoother for him rather than being forced into the action like he was last week against the Colts.

San Diego enters this game overvalued because it has opened the season 3-0 against the spread. Jacksonville is undervalued right now due to going 0-3 against the spread in its first three games. The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with the Jaguars now. Oddsmakers have been forced to adjust, and they are tacking on a few too many points to this spread. This is clearly a letdown spot for the Chargers as well after their back-to-back huge wins over the Seahawks and Bills.

Also, the Chargers have a lot of key injuries they are dealing with right now.  They have lost two key starters on defense in LB Monte Te'o and LB Melvin Ingram.  Te'o is out indefinitely with a fractured foot, while Ingram, one of their best pass rushers, has been placed on the IR with a hip injury.  Offensively, they are down two starting linemen in C Nick Hardwick and G Jeromey Clary.  They are also without their top two running backs coming into the season in Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead.

Here is a trend that just goes to show how backing poor ATS teams in brief stretches can be very profitable. Plays on any team (JACKSONVILLE) – after being beaten by the spread by more than 7 points in three consecutive games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Also, plays on road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (JACKSONVILLE) – off 3 or more consecutive overs, poor offensive team – scoring 17 or less points/game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Again, plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) – with a pathetic defense – allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  You may not have been able to stomach taking the Jaguars up to this point, but it's the right move this week.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans +7.5

Tennessee (1-2) looked to be an improved team with a 26-10 road win at Kansas City in the opener. However, back-to-back blowout losses to Dallas (10-26) at home and Cincinnati (7-33) on the road have many questioning it.

Indianapolis (1-2) did not look good in the first two weeks with losses at Denver (24-31) and at home against Philadelphia (27-30). It took out its frustration on lowly Jacksonville last week, coming away with a 44-17 road victory.

The sign of a good team is one that is outgaining opponents on the season. The lopsided losses the Titans suffered against the Bengals and Cowboys were nowhere near the blowouts they appeared. They were only outgained by 54 yards by the Cowboys, and they actually outgained the Bengals by 26 yards, but they shot themselves in the foot with missed field goals and four turnovers in those two contests.

After outgaining the Chiefs by 160 yards in the opener, the Titans are actually outgaining opponents 348.3 to 304.3 on the season, or by an average of 44.0 yards per game. That 304.3 mark is good for 5th in the league in total defense, so they certainly have a stop unit that is capable of shutting teams down. The same cannot be said for the Colts, who are allowing 26.0 points and 387.7 yards per game this season, good for 28th in the league in total defense.

Tennessee will be out for revenge in this game after losing all four meetings to Indianapolis over the past two seasons. All four meetings were decided by 8 points or less, including three by 6 points or fewer. In their 14-22 loss at Indianapolis last year, the Titans actually outgained the Colts 347-264 for the game. In fact, the Titans have allowed less than 270 yards of total offense to the Colts in each of the last two meetings in Indianapolis.

The Colts simply have a knack for playing in close games. They have gone 14-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less over the past three seasons combined. Their shaky defense doesn’t allow them to blow teams out very often, save for teams like the Jaguars who are horrible. There is a very good chance this game is decided by a touchdown or less as well.

Tennessee is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Plays on any team (TENNESSEE) – a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  After an Indianapolis blowout last week and a lopsided loss by Tennessee, this line has simply been inflated.  Take the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +2

Detroit (2-1) has taken care of business at home this season with blowout victories over both the Giants (35-14) and the Packers (19-7). Sandwiched between those two performances was a stinker in a 7-24 road loss to the Panthers.

New York (1-2) won its opener against Oakland by a final of 19-14. It has since suffered a pair of heartbreaking losses with a 24-31 setback on the road at Green Bay and a 19-27 home loss to Chicago.

This is a make-or-break game for the Jets. They know they cannot afford to fall to 1-3 if they want any chance of making the postseason. I look for them to put it all on the line to get a win this weekend, and to likely come away victorious. This is a huge letdown spot for the Lions, who are coming off a rare win over division rival Green Bay last week.

Despite the 1-2 start, I have been very impressed with the Jets up to this point. They had the Packers down 21-3 on the road and had every chance to win that game, but had a potential game-tying touchdown called back due to a timeout. They simply gave the game away against the Bears last week despite outplaying them, committing three turnovers. They outgained Chicago 414-257 for the game, which was the second time they have put up over 400 yards of offense this season.

There’s no question that the Jets are better than they get credit for. That’s evident by the fact that they rank 2nd in the league in total defense at 268.3 yards per game, and 8th in total offense at 376.0 yards per game. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 107.7 yards per game on the season. That's the third-best yardage differential in the league and shows what this team is capable of provided that they quit turning the ball over on offense.

While the Lions have looked absolutely dominant at home, they were a completely different team in their lone road game this season. They lost to the Panthers by a final of 7-24 despite being just a 1.5-point underdog in that contest. The offense was limited to just 323 total yards while committing three turnovers. The Lions are now just 5-12 on the road over the past three seasons. They have gone 0-8 on the road five times since 2001 while finishing with a .500 road record or better only once in the last 13 years.

Detroit is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. The Lions are 29-51 ATS in their last 80 road games following one or more consecutive ATS wins. The Jets are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games off a home loss. New York is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 after playing on Monday Night Football.  Take the Jets Monday.

20* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -1.5

Chicago (2-1) didn’t let a 20-23 home loss in overtime to Buffalo in the opener dictate what kind of team it would be this season. It is coming off two straight impressive road wins on primetime television over the 49ers (28-20) and Jets (27-19).

Green Bay (1-2) is somewhat fortunate to have a win this season. It had to erase a 21-3 deficit to beat the Jets (31-24) at home in Week 2. That victory was sandwiched between a pair of ugly road losses at Seattle (16-36) and Detroit (7-19).

The Packers have played an extremely tough schedule in the early going, which is more than anything responsible for their 1-2 start. Road games against the Seahawks and Lions clearly have not been easy. Those two teams appear to be two of the best in the league in 2014. In hopes of avoiding a 1-3 start, the Packers will buckle down this week and be extra motivated to take down the Bears.

Playing Chicago is exactly what the Packers need to get right. After all, they have won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. They racked up 473 yards of total offense in their 33-28 road victory at Chicago last season to improve to 4-0 in the last four meetings at Soldier Field.

They did lose to the Bears at home last season, but that was the game where Aaron Rodgers got injured early in the first quarter as he attempted just two passes. So, when Rodgers plays the full game, the Packers are 7-0 in the last seven meetings.

Chicago will be working on a short week. It is coming off a 27-19 road win over the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in a game it should have lost. That can also be said for the San Francisco game the week before.

The Bears have been thoroughly outplayed in those two games, but they have taken advantage of a combined seven turnovers by the opposition to pick up the two wins. They were outgianed 216-361 by the 49ers and 257-414 by the Jets. This team will not be able to live off of turnovers forever, and I look for their biggest flaws to show against Rodgers and company.

Chicago ranks 27th in the league in total offense at 300.0 yards per game.  It also ranks just 23rd in total defense at 377.7 yards per game.  As you can see, it is getting outgained by an average of 77.7 yards per game on the season.  That's the sign of a team that should be 1-2 or 0-3 rather than one that is 2-1.  Without question, it is fortunate to have that record at this point.

The Bears have one of the worst home-field advantages in the league. They are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, including 1-7-1 ATS at home under Marc Trestman. Chicago is 2-10 ATS versus division opponents over the past three seasons. The Bears are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. The Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Chicago.  Roll with Green Bay Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -21

The Baylor Bears have gotten off to another fast start this season, winning and covering each of their first three games, including their 63-21 victory at Buffalo last time out. Somehow, some way the Bears continue to not get the credit they deserve from oddsmakers. They won the Big 12 last year and are one of the favorites to win it again in 2014.

The books simply haven’t been able to set the numbers high enough in these first three games. The Bears have covered as a 31.5-point favorite against SMU (45-0), a 46.5-point favorite against Northwestern State (70-6), and as a 33-point favorite over Buffalo (63-21).  I don’t believe they have set the number high enough in this game, either.

Baylor has been the most impressive team in the Big 12 to this point, or it is at least neck-and-neck with Oklahoma. Its offense is dynamite once again despite being down some receivers due to injury for a few games. It is averaging 59.3 points and 654.3 yards per game, and after having two weeks to get healthy, starting receivers Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman are expected to return this week. The defense has been as good if not better than the offense in allowing just 9.0 points and 221.0 yards per game.

Baylor absolutely destroyed Iowa State last year in a 71-7 victory that was as impressive as any in all of college football. It racked up 714 yards of offense while allowing just 174 to the Cyclones. Bryce Petty went 23 of 31 passing for 343 yards and two touchdowns before getting pulled early. The defense held Cyclone quarterbacks to 15 of 27 passing for 123 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. They also limited ISU to 41 yards on 33 carries on the ground, an average of 1.2 per carry.

Iowa State is coming off its Super Bowl, which is the instate rivalry against Iowa that means more to the Cyclones than any other game throughout the course of any season. They did win that game 20-17, but the Hawkeyes are clearly down this season. You can’t forget the stinker that this team put up in the opener with a 14-34 loss to North Dakota State as the Cyclones allowed 34 unanswered points after taking an early 14-0 lead. They were outgained in that game 253-503 by the Bison.

While Iowa State did hang tough against Kansas State, it needed a TD on a punt return as well as another score on a reverse pass to keep that game close. In all reality, that game was far from the 28-32 contest it turned out to be. The Cyclones were actually outgained 319-471 by the Wildcats and should have lost by a lot more. All 28 of their points came in a wild second quarter where the Wildcats simply let down their guard. Baylor doesn’t let down its guard, it just keeps pouring on the points, which allows it to cover these big spreads.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 points or more over the past two seasons. Iowa State is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that gain 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +135

The Milwaukee Brewers (81-79) were recently eliminated from postseason contention.  They could care less about winning these final two games of the year after collapsing in the second half.  In fact, they have quit caring for over a week now as they have lost seven of their last nine games overall, including the opener of this series against the Cubs.

Chicago (72-88) has actually been a solid team over the last few months once it called up its talented prospects that are the future of the franchise.  These guys are playing for jobs next year, and they're playing inspired baseball to close out the season.  They have won three in a row, which includes a pair of wins over the Cardinals, who are in first place in the NL Central.

I'll gladly back the motivated Cubs and the underrated Tsuyoshi Wada Saturday.  The left-hander has had a very promising season in limited action, going 4-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 12 starts.  In his only start against the Brewers, Wada got the win on August 13th while allowing just two earned runs and six base runners over 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 Chicago victory.

I'll gladly fade the uninspired Brewers and starter Wily Peralta in this one.  The right-hander is having a decent season at 16-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 31 starts, but he he has been slightly worse at home, posting a 3.97 ERA in 16 starts at Miller park.  Also, Peralta is 2-5 with a 4.10 ERA in eight career starts against Chicago.  He is 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA in three starts against Chicago in 2014, allowing 12 earned runs and four homers in 19 innings.

The Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall.  Milwaukee is 0-5 in its last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Peralta's last five starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Chicago is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Milwaukee is 1-5 in Peralta's last six starts vs. Chicago.  Roll with the Cubs Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -17

The Buckeyes (2-1) are coming off a 66-0 home win against Kent State prior to having their first bye of the season last week. The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0) were on the only team in the country to have byes in the first two weeks of the season. They have since beaten Toledo 58-34 and Miami of Ohio 31-24 at home each of the past two weeks, respectively.

I believe the Buckeyes are undervalued right now after their slow start to the season. They won at Navy 34-17 in their opener, but needed a monster finish to pull away for that victory in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate. Then, they lost at home to Virginia Tech by a final of 21-35 as they were sloppy in committing three turnovers.

That loss to the Hokies was the first regular season defeat in the Urban Meyer era, a span of two-plus years and a 24-1 record later. He used it as a teaching lesson, and his team could not have responded better the following week. They beat Kent State 66-0 in an absolutely dominant effort, outgaining the Golden Flashes 628-126 for the game while forcing three turnovers. They had a bye week last week, which will only allow Meyer to further progress his team.

It was obviously going to take some time for freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett to get comfortable.  Meyer has done wonders with quarterbacks since becoming a head coach, and Barrett is a guy that he recruited who is a future start.  He started to show that against Kent State, completing 23 of 30 passes for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one interception.  Expect him to continue to improve by leaps and bounds as the season moves along.

Cincinnati clearly is not that good this season despite the 2-0 start. Its 58-34 win over Toledo was nowhere near the blowout it would indicate as it allowed 563 total yards to the Rockets and their backup quarterback. It only beat a terrible Miami of Ohio team by a final of 31-24 at home last week as a 30-point favorite. It only outgained the Redhawks 370-364 for the game as well. Tthe Bearcats really don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this one competitive.

Cincinnati has not been able to run the football on either Toledo or Miami Ohio, which both have soft defenses.  It is only averaging 123 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 per carry.  It relies heavily on the pass, which is good news for Ohio State backers.  The Buckeyes are only allowing 99 passing yards per game and 4.0 per attempt.

The Buckeyes have won 10 straight meetings between these instate foes.  The Bearcats are 0-9 all-time in Columbus, including a 37-7 loss to Ohio State in the most recent meeting in 2006.  They also lost 6-27 prior to that in 2004 in Columbus as well.

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after gaining 6.75 or more yards and allowing 3.75 or less yards per play last game. The Buckeyes are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take Ohio State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -7

The No. 16 Stanford Cardinal (2-1) hit the road on Saturday, September 27th to take on the Washington Huskies (4-0) in a Pac-12 showdown. The Cardinal have won five of the last six meetings in this series, including a thrilling 31-28 home victory last year as a 9-point favorite.

The Cardinal had last week off following their 35-0 shutout of Army in Week 3 as a 30-point home favorite. The Huskies played Georgia State last week and wound up pulling away in the second half for a 45-14 victory to remain unbeaten on the season.

After losing to USC at home 10-13 in Week 2, the Cardinal know they cannot afford another loss if they want to win a third straight Pac-12 Title. That’s why they won’t be taking any teams lightly the rest of the way. There’s no way they should have lost to the Trojans in the first place as they outgained them 413-291 for the game, but committed two turnovers and simply beat themselves. They had a whopping nine drive that got inside the USC 30-yard line, so coming away with 10 points is unacceptable and highly unlikely.

Stanford got right with a 35-0 trouncing of Army in Week 3. It has since had a bye week to prepare for Washington, which did not have last week off. That extra week of preparation for the Cardinal will be a huge advantage heading into this one. It’s not like they need it as they have dominated the Huskies in recent years, winning five of the past six meetings in this series while going 4-2 ATS.

Washington is extremely fortunate to be 4-0 this season and is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It was outgained by 88 yards in a 17-16 win at Hawaii, outgained by 37 yards in a 59-52 home win over Eastern Washington, and it trailed Georgia State 14-0 at halftime last week.

Sure, the Huskies scored 45 points in the second half to pull away from Georgia State, but they were gift-wrapped most of those points due to four second-half turnovers by the Panthers. The Huskies only managed 336 total yards against an awful Georgia State defense.  This team is clearly overvalued right now due to the 4-0 record.

Simply put, Washington has no passing game. It couldn’t have faced an easier schedule to this point, yet it is only averaging 179 passing yards per game. It has been relying on its rushing attack, which has produced 239 yards per game.

That makes this a great match-up for Stanford, which has been one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run throughout the years.  The Cardinal are only giving up 138 rushing yards per game 3.5 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have played both USC and and the triple-option attack of Army.

Stanford is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more. Washington is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a blowout home win by 28 points or more. The Huskies are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. The Cardinal are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Washington.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* FSU/NC State ACC Saturday No-Brainer on NC State +18.5

The No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (3-0) travel to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-0) on Saturday, September 27th. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series, including a 49-17 victory by the Seminoles last year as a 34-point favorite.

The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling 23-17 overtime victory over the Clemson Tigers. They managed to gut out a win without Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, who was serving a one-game suspension. The Wolfpack are coming off a 42-0 beat down of Presbyterian at home last week.

The Wolfpack have already exceeded their win total from last season. They haven’t exactly played the toughest of schedules en route to their 4-0 start, but Georgia Southern and Old Dominion are no pushovers, and this team has improved with every game. I was extremely impressed with their Week 3 road victory at South Florida by a final of 49-17 as they outgained the Bulls by 430 total yards for the game.

After having just 10 starters back in his first season on the job in 2013, head coach Dave Doeren has 14 starters back this year, and several of his recruits are getting playing time. Jacoby Brissett, the former Florida transfer, has taken his game to the next level this year with the Wolfpack. He is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,005 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 118 yards and a score.

Florida State came into this season way overvalued after winning the BCS Championship. That has proven to be the case as it has failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games. It only beat Oklahoma State 37-31 as an 18-point favorite, The Citadel 37-12 as a 58.5-point favorite, and Clemson 23-17 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Seminoles were actually outgained by 89 yards against the Tigers last week. This is a letdown spot for them because Clemson was considered their biggest threat to win the Atlantic Division.

No team plays Florida State tougher more consistently in recent years than NC State. That’s evident by the fact that the Wolfpack are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Seminoles. The home team has won each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 17-16 upset win by NC State in 2012 as a 17-point underdog. The Wolpack will be licking their chops at another opportunity to pull the upset against the defending national champs in this one.

The Seminoles are more vulnerable defensively than they were last year. They gave up 161 yards on the ground to Oklahoma State and 250 to The Citadel. They also allowed 306 passing yards to Clemson last week. NC State’s balanced offensive attack will give this FSU defense some troubles. The Wolfpack are averaging 249 yards on the ground and 253 through the air for  a whopping 502 total yards per game.

The Wolfpack are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdogs is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series.  The Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Raleigh.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP +28

Kansas State has been a covering machine with Bill Snyder as its head coach throughout the years.  However, it has done most of its damage in the role of the underdog, just as it did against Auburn last week in staying within the number despite losing the game.  This team isn't nearly as efficient at covering spreads in the role of the favorite, especially a four-TD favorite like they are today against UTEP.

That loss to Auburn puts the Wildcats in a serious hangover spot here.  They essentially gave that game away by missing three field goals and arguably outplayed the Tigers.  With a Big 12 game on deck against Texas Tech, they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.  I do not believe they are going to have the kind of focus it takes to win this game by more than four touchdowns and cover the spread.

Regardless of Kansas State's mental state, I believe UTEP would cover this number a lot more times than it wouldn't.  This is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.  It was a rebuilding season last year for head coach Sean Kugler in his first season on the job as he had just 12 returning starters.  Now, he has 15 starters back and a more talented bunch than they get credit for.

UTEP beat New Mexico in the opener 31-24 on the road despite being a 10-point underdog while racking up 446 total yards in the win.  It then only lost at home to Texas Tech 26-30 as a 21-point underdog as the Red Raiders needed a late score in the 4th quarter and a defensive stop to sneak away with a victory. 

The Miners didn't let that loss bring them down as they rebounded nicely with a 42-24 road win over New Mexico State as a 10-point favorite while gaining 470 total yards in the win.  They have since had a bye week last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for Kansas State, which will be a huge advantage. 

This is a UTEP team that could legitimately make a bowl game this year for just the second time in the past nine seasons.  It has a relentless rushing attack that is averaging 317 yards per game and 6.2 per carry this season.  Aaron Jones is a name you should get familiar with.  His 184.0 yards per game average ranks second in the FBS, and he also has seven touchdowns this year while averaging 7.0 per carry.  Former Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers is doing an excellent job of running the offense at the quarterback position as well.

The Miners are one of only six FBS teams with just one giveaway and they've committed 12 penalties - tied for eighth-fewest.  "Those are two things we emphasize with our players everyday with ball security, getting the football, making sure we hang onto the football and the type of accountability we hold in our program carrying over to the discipline with penalties," Kugler said.

Plays against home favorites (KANSAS ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take UTEP Saturday.

20* Fresno/New Mexico Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Fresno State -4.5

There’s no question that three straight blowout losses by Fresno State to start the season are concerning. However, one look at the opponents they’ve lost to and I'm willing to give the Bulldogs a free pass. They have had to play road games at USC and Utah as well as a home game against Nebraska. Those three teams have combined to have just one loss so far this season, and they are clearly a class above the Bulldogs.

I like how this team responded as they easily could have been deflated. They bounced back with a resounding 56-16 win over Southern Utah last week while racking up 694 yards of total offense. That's the same Southern Utah team that only lost 19-28 at Nevada, which beat Washington State, which only lost by 7 points to Oregon.

It was clear that this offense would take time to gel with the loss of Derek Carr, but this is clearly a step in the right direction. Facing teams like Southern Utah and New Mexico will feel like a cakewalk after that brutal start to the season against tough competition.

New Mexico lost at home to UTEP 24-31 in its opener and at home to Arizona State 23-58 in Week 2. It barely escaped with a 38-35 win against a terrible New Mexico State team on the road last week. This team is getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers, but it also may be disrespect toward Fresno State because of the 0-3 start.

Remember, the Bulldogs won the Mountain West last year and still have 13 starters back from that team. I still believe they will make a run at another MWC Title this year now that the schedule is much easier and they have had time to work out their problems.

After racking up 694 yards of offense last week, the Bulldogs have to be licking their chops at the opportunity to face a New Mexico defense that is giving up 41.3 points and 518.3 total yards per game. That’s really bad when you consider the quality of competition the Lobos have faced as both UTEP and New Mexico State don’t have that great of offenses. UTEP put up 446 yards, Arizona State 621 yards, and New Mexico State 488 yards on this Lobos’ defense.

New Mexico has some key injuries heading into this one.  Starting quarterback Cole Gautsche left last week's game against New Mexico State with a hamstring injury.  He leads the team with 237 rushing yards while averaging a whopping 11.8 per carry, so that would be a huge loss if he can't go.  It would be hard to believe he's recovered from a hamstring injury on a short week even if he does go.

Starting receiver Carlos Wiggins, who had 252 kick return yards including one for a score against the Bulldogs last year and was a 4th-team All-American kick returner, is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  Starting right tackle Johnny Vizcaino is expected to miss this game with a concussion.  Starting defensive end Nik D'Avanzo is doubtful with a knee injury.  Running back Teriyon Gipson, who has the most rushing attempts (35) on the team, is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Bulldogs beat New Mexico 69-28 last year for their 8th win in the last nine meetings in this series. They racked up 822 yards while holding the Lobos to just 316 yards, outgaining them by a ridiculous 506 total yards for the game.  I know that Fresno State is down a bit from last year, but the dominance in this series cannot be ignored.  While New Mexico catches many other teams off guard with its rushing attack, the Bulldogs will be prepared for it because they are used to seeing it.

Fresno State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bulldogs are also 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams who rush for 230 or more yards per game.  The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet Fresno State Friday.