|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-06-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trailblazers +2||111-107||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +2
The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog an home to the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday. I'll take advantage of this line mistake by backing Portland to win and cover in this one as they continue playing superb basketball at home.
The Blazers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in 12 home games this season. They scoring 105.7 points and allowing 89.2 points while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 16.5 points/game. Oklahoma City is one of the top teams in the west, but four of their five losses have come on the road.
The Blazers are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 home games. Portland is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Oklahoma City. The Blazers are 74-47 ATS in their last 121 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the Blazers Monday.
|02-06-12||Connecticut v. Louisville -4||Top||59-80||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
20* UConn/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Louisville -4
The Louisville Cardinals are showing great value Monday as only a 4-point home favorite over the UConn Huskies. UConn has been overrated all season after winning the championship last year. That has really shown in Big East play.
The Huskies are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall despite being a favorite in four of those five contests. UConn is just 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 62.8 points/game on 41.1 percent shooting.
Louisville is 18-5 this year and one of the top teams in the country. The Cardinals are a super 14-2 at home, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points/game. They are only giving up 60.4 points on 36.8 percent shooting at home.
Louisville is red hot right now, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 9 points or more. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cardinals are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Huskies. Bet Louisville Monday.
|02-05-12||NY Giants v. New England Patriots -2.5||Top||21-17||Loss||-115||245 h 6 m||Show|
25* Giants/Pats Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England -2.5
The New England Patriots are out for revenge in the Super Bowl. Certainly, both teams want this one as much as humanly possible. However, it's the Patriots that come into this contest with more to prove.
The Giants have beaten them the past two times they've faced one another. In both occasions, New York was able to march down the field for the game-winning touchdown with only seconds remaining. They won't be so fortunate this time around as the Patriots dominate from start to finish.
I look for New England to play at a fast pace and use the no-huddle to their advantage. This will help slow down New York's pass rush as they won't be able to make mass substitutions, which won't allow their defensive linemen to stay fresh all game. There's no question that head coach Bill Belichick will have the better game plan coming into this one, and I trust Tom Brady and company to execute it.
New England has stepped up their defense in the playoffs. The Patriots have only allowed an average of 15.0 points/game in back-to-back victories over the Broncos and Ravens. While this defense has been giving up a lot of yardage this season, they only allow 20.7 points/game. Compare that to the Giants, who give up 23.1 points/game. In the end, it's points that win you games.
The Patriots are an incredible 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games revenge a same-season loss. Belichick is a perfect 6-0 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent as a favorite of 7 points or more as the coach of New England. That's a stretch that dates back to 2000, his first year as head coach. Also, Belichick is 17-3 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite as the coach of New England. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
|02-04-12||Orlando Magic +6 v. Indiana Pacers||85-81||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando +6
The Orlando Magic are back on track and on a mission. The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect for their win at Dallas last night. These two factors coupled together provide us with excellent value on the Magic Saturday.
Indiana is 4-16 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Magic Saturday.
|02-04-12||Iowa State +2.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||77-70||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +2.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have beaten the Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats in back-to-back games despite not being a favorite in either. ISU should be a favorite today against lowly Oklahoma, but they're not.
The Cyclones are 16-6 on the season and legitimately one of the best teams in the BIg 12. ISU is 6-3 in the Big 12 this season to show their true colors. Oklahoma is 3-6 in the Big 12 this year, and just 13-8 on the season. This team is not on the same level as the Cyclones.
Iowa State is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|02-04-12||Baylor v. Oklahoma State +6.5||64-60||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +6.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are showing tremendous value tonight. Baylor is a team that I believe has been overrated for quite some time. They should not be favored at all at Oklahoma State, let alone by 6.5 points.
OSU is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Oky State is 8-0 ATS in home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Cowboys Saturday.
|02-03-12||New York Knicks +7 v. Boston Celtics||Top||89-91||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Celtics NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +7
The New York Knicks are showing awesome value Friday as a big road underdog to the Boston Celtics. Boston is getting a lot of love because of their recent play. But the fact of the matter is that the Celtics have had to win six of their last seven just to get to 11-10 on the season. This is still a mediocre team at best.
The Knicks are off to a slow start, but that's why they are showing so much value here. It's only a matter of time before a team with this much talent gets going. After thumping the Detroit Pistons 113-86, the Knicks came back last night and gave the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls all they could handle. The Knicks would lost 102-105, but they're certainly battle-tested coming into this showdown with the Celtics.
New York is a superb 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. division opponents. They are actually outscoring their division foes 101.1 to 97.2 in this spot. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. These three trends make for a 22-1 system backing New York. Bet the Knicks Thursday.
|02-03-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Orlando Magic||94-102||Push||0||6 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8
The Orlando Magic are way overvalued heading into this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers. While Orlando has been one of the most overrated teams in the league this season, the Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated.
Orlando simply cannot be trusted with the Dwight Howard situation and his likely trade looming. That has especially been the case of late as the Magic are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Their one win came at home against the lowly Washington Wizards 109-103.
The Cavaliers are 8-12 SU, but 12-8 ATS. They have been dealt a very tough schedule in the early going with 12 road games compared to 8 home games. Cleveland is 5-7 SU, but 8-4 ATS in road games this season. They are only getting outscored by 3.5 points/game away from home.
Orlando is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a home win against a division rival. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. These three trends make for an 18-1 system going against the Magic. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.
|02-03-12||Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +2.5||99-79||Loss||-110||6 h 16 m||Show|
15* Heat/76ers NBA Friday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5
The Philadelphia 76ers should not be a home underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. This is simply a display of how the Heat are way overvalued while the 76ers remain undervalued. These are two 16-6 teams and two of the best teams in the East, but I'll sign with the home squad to get it done here.
The 76ers will be out for revenge after a rare loss on the road in their first meeting with Miami earlier this season. Philadelphia has been dominant at home all year. The 76ers are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in home games, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.7 points/game.
Miami has been very beatable on the road this season. The Heat are just 6-4 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.3 points/game. They are giving up a ridiculous 101.5 points/game in road games as their defense has been nearly non-existent. To compare, the 76ers are only giving up 81.3 points/game at home.
The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games, while the 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. These five trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing Philly. Take the 76ers Friday.
|02-02-12||Florida Intl. v. Troy -3||63-50||Loss||-108||15 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Troy -3
This one is just about as obvious as it gets folks. Florida International is getting too much respect with this line despite being just 5-15 on the season. Troy isn't much better at 7-13, but the Trojans are playing at home and are clearly the choice at this small price.
Troy is a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. The Trojans are a respectable 5-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points/game. FIU is just 4-8 on the road, getting outscored by 5.1 points/game.
The home team has been dominant in this series, winning six of the last eight meetings. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Troy is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Roll with Troy Thursday.
|02-02-12||SE Missouri State +16 v. Murray State||Top||73-81||Win||100||15 h 40 m||Show|
25* College Basketball DOG OF THE YEAR on SE Missouri State +16
Murray State is the only unbeaten Division 1 team left. As a result, the Racers are way overvalued right now. The betting public is constantly all over this team because of their unbeaten mark. They have been getting killed of late because of it.
Murray State is 21-0 on the season. However, the Racers have gone 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. All five of those contests were decided by 17 points or less. This team is starting to feel invincible, and they simply aren't showing up every night with the kind of effort it takes to cover these large spread.
SE Missouri State is a quality team at 12-9 on the season. This squad has been underrated all year as they've gone 11-6 ATS in all lined games. SE Missouri State is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with both losses coming by 4 and 15 points, respectively. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now.
Murray State is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Racers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games off a win against a conference rival. Murray State is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. These three trends make for a 23-0 system backing SE Missouri State. Plus, the road team is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet SE Missouri State Thursday.
|02-02-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks -4||96-77||Loss||-106||14 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4
The Memphis Grizzlies remain overrated despite playing without their best player, Zach Randolph. It has finally caught up to them as the Grizzlies are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. This team should not be getting this much respect Thursday.
Atlanta continues going under the radar despite being one of the top teams in the league. The Hawks are 16-6 on the season, including 8-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.6 points/game. Memphis is 4-7 on the road, getting outscored by 5.8 points/game.
The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks. Plus, the Grizzlies are just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Atlanta Thursday.
|02-01-12||Baylor v. Texas A&M +7.5||63-60||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +7.5
The Texas A&M Aggies are a lived underdog tonight at home against the Baylor Bears. This team should not be this heavy of a dog at home Wednesday. They are in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season and are fully capable of pulling off the upset.
The Aggies are a mediocre 12-8 on the season, but they have won three of their last five games overall. All three wins came at home against Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Their two losses during this stretch came at Missouri by 19 points and at Kansas by only 10.
Texas A&M has been at their best by far at home this season. The Aggies are 11-2 at home, outscoring their opponents by 11.2 points/game. Baylor has been overrated all season. The Bears showed their true colors in a 74-92 loss at Kansas. They also lost at home to Missouri 88-89. The Bears are clearly very beatable.
These teams already met once this season with Baylor winning 61-52 at home as a 13.5-point favorite. There's no question that the Aggies are capable of winning this game after losing by just 9 on the road in their first meeting. The Aggies are 59-39 ATS in their last 98 revenging a road loss vs opponent. Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take Texas A&M Wednesday.
|02-01-12||Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 194.5||Top||97-105||Loss||-110||20 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194.5
The total has been set way too high in this game between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. I fully expect a defensive battle tonight. These teams just played on January 22nd in Miami with a 91-82 victory for the Heat and 173 combined points.
Miami and Milwaukee have historically played in some very low-scoring games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series with 190 or less combined points scored in nine of those 10 games. The only exception was a 101-95 overtime victory by Miami on 1/7/2011. That game was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation.
Milwaukee is 13-1 to the UNDER in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 12-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER 194.5 points in this game Wednesday.
|02-01-12||Duquesne v. Dayton -4.5||83-73||Loss||-105||19 h 58 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dayton -4.5
Dayton is showing tremendous line value tonight as a small home favorite against Duquesne. Dayton is 14-7 on the season and one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 while Duquesne is 11-9 and in the middle of the pack.
The reason this line is so low is because Dayton is coming off back-to-back losses. That includes a bad 81-86 home loss to Rhode Island last time out. This team will come back very hungry and motivated tonight, and you can be sure they'll be giving 100% effort on the floor.
Dayton is 10-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points/game. Duquesne is just 4-6 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.4 points/game. Given these numbers, the Flyers are clearly showing some of their best value of the season tonight.
Duquesne is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after 3 or more consecutive unders. The Dukes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Flyers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Duquesne is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic 10. The home team has won four straight in this series. Bet Dayton Wednesday.
|01-31-12||Charlotte Bobcats +13 v. Los Angeles Lakers||73-106||Loss||-110||10 h 2 m||Show|
15* Bobcats/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Charlotte +13
The Charlotte Bobcats always tend to play the Los Angeles Lakers very tough. At the same time, the Lakers are certainly a team that has played to the level of their competition over the last few years. I look for the Lakers to overlook the Bobcats enough tonight to let Charlotte cover this inflated number.
The Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. In fact, Charlotte has actually won 8 of those 13 meetings outright! The Lakers' largest margin of victory in their five wins has been by 9 points. Two of their wins have come by a single point!
The Lakers haven't beaten the Bobcats by more than 11 points once in 14 meetings since 2005, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with the Bobcats Tuesday.
|01-31-12||Kansas State v. Iowa State||70-72||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State PK
The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. That is clearly evident by this line tonight. I was on Iowa State as my 25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR when they knocked off Kansas 72-64 as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. I'm on them once again Tuesday as they're undervalued again.
ISU is 15-6 on the season. They have shown that they are for real in conference play, going 5-3 with all three of their losses coming by 9 points or less. Two of those losses were at Kansas and at Texas, while the other was at home against the best team in the Big 12 in the Missouri Tigers.
Kansas State is 15-5 this season, but they have struggled in conference play a bit. The Wildcats are 4-4 in Big 12 action, losing twice to unranked Oklahoma. ISU lost both meetings with Kansas State last year, including a 1-point setback at home. I look for the Cyclones to really want revenge, and they'll get it with a much-improved team from a year ago.
The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. ISU is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Kansas State. K-State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cyclones. Take Iowa State Tuesday.
|01-31-12||Wisconsin v. Penn State +8.5||Top||52-46||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State +8.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions should not be this big of an underdog at home to the Wisconsin Badgers Tuesday. Home-court advantage is as big in the Big Ten as it is in any other conference. The Nittany Lions are certainly a live underdog tonight.
Wisconsin is outscoring opponents by an average of 7.3 points/game on the road this season. Penn State is 8-4 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.9 points/game. Looking at these numbers alone, it's safe to say that there's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire.
Penn State comes in very battle-tested after playing back-to-back games at Indiana and at Ohio State, arguably the two best teams in the Big Ten, right there with Wisconsin and Michigan State. This is a Nittany Lions team that has knocked off both Illinois and Purdue at home this season, and they also played Indiana to a 6-point game at home.
The Nittany Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Wisconsin, winning two of those games outright. Penn State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Nittany Lions are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Bet Penn State Tuesday.
|01-30-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -2 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||100-112||Loss||-110||11 h 49 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -2
The Oklahoma City Thunder are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league this season, and any time you can get the Thunder at this, they are worth a look.
The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a grueling 109-105 win at Denver last night. Meanwhile, the Thunder come in on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go when thye hit the floor tonight.
The Thunder are 16-3 this season, including a very impressive 8-2 on the road. OKC is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.
This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|01-30-12||College of Charleston v. Samford +4||68-52||Loss||-108||8 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +4
Samford is playing their best basketball of the season over the past two-plus weeks. They should not be an underdog at home against a Charleston team that is in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. I'll side with the home team playing the better basketball right now.
Despite being an underdog in four of their last five games, Samford has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. Their only loss came by a single points at UNC-Greensboro 60-61. This team is playing so well that they even beat Davidson 77-74 last time out as a 12-point dog.
Charleston is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. That includes back-to-back home losses to Furman and Wofford, which followed road losses at Davidson (69-87) and at Georgia Southern. Charleston was favored in three of those four games.
This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - off 2 or more upset consecutive losses as a home favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, while the Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Roll with Samford Monday.
|01-30-12||Princeton v. Pennsylvania -1.5||67-82||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -1.5
The Pennsylvania Quakers should be a much bigger home favorite tonight. This team is in the midst of their best run of the season, and they make for a solid play here Monday.
Despite being an underdog in each of their last three games, the Quakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS. They picked up impressive road wins over Columbia and Cornell before topping a very good St. Joseph's team at home.
Princeton is going to be very rusty heading into this one. They have not played since January 14th, which was more than two weeks ago. That is clearly going to work against them tonight.
The Quakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Penn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. The Quakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Penn is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings with Princeton. Take Pennsylvania Monday.
|01-29-12||Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +2.5||Top||94-72||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Hornets +2.5
The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They are an underdog and shouldn't be tonight. This team has suffered several close losses all season, but they're in line for a victory Sunday.
New Orleans just beat Orlando 93-67 two nights ago in their last game. This is a team that is taking out their frustration from so many close losses! They will not be denied tonight, and look for the Hornets to go on a mini following this victory.
Atlanta is 11-23 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
FREE Pro Bowl Pick: NFC -5.5
|01-28-12||Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz -9||93-96||Loss||-109||10 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -9
The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the league. Sacramento is 6-13 this season, and they've lost three straight by 33, 12 and 29 points, respectively. I like them to lose by double-digits again tonight against Utah.
The Jazz are 8-3 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points/game on average. They should have no problem winning by 10-plus against the Kings tonight. Sacramento is just 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season.
This play falls into a system that is 52-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. Roll with the Jazz Saturday.
|01-28-12||New York Knicks +7.5 v. Houston Rockets||84-97||Loss||-108||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5
The Knicks are showing awesome value Saturday. They played the Miami Heat very tough last night with Carmelo Anthony, and I fully expect them to beat the Houston Rockets tonight. They actually play as a team without Anthony, so it's not surprising that they are succesful.
New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. They are actually winning in this spot 113.4 to 107.1 on average. Also, the Knicks are a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Take this 20-0 system straight to the bank. Bet New York Saturday.
|01-28-12||Kansas v. Iowa State +6||Top||64-72||Win||100||3 h 17 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +6
Iowa State was beating Kansas almost the entire way the first time they played them this season. That game was in Kansas, but ISU was crushed over the final 10 minutes and eventually lost 73-82. I like their chances to get revenge at home tonight.
ISU is 14-6 on the season and one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Fred Hoiberg has recruited talent on this team that stacks up against the big boys; North Carolina and Duke. ISU is 10-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game.
The Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Kansas is 0-6 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. This is a perfect 12-0 ATS System backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-27-12||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 195||Top||89-99||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195
The New York Knicks are going to be without two starters and two key offensive pieces tonight. Leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (23.6 PPG) and starting PG Baron Davis are both out tonight as they deal with wrist and back injuries, respectively. Points are going to be hard to come by for New York without these two.
Miami is likely going to be without Dwayne Wade once again tonight as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. I expect the Heat to win this game, but it will be because of a great defensive effort against the short-handed Knicks. Miami has had trouble scoring of late, putting up just 91.7 points/game in their last three. But they are stopping opponents with ease, yielding only 90.6 points/game in their last five.
New York was having a hard time scoring even with Anthony. They are putting up just 94.5 points/game on the season. Their defense is improved though, especially on the road. The Knicks are scoring 93.7 points/game and allowing 91.8 points/game in road games for an average combined score of 185.5 points/game. New York is 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season.
New York is 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Knicks and Heat combined for 177 and 181 points in their final two meetings last season, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-27-12||Charlotte Bobcats +16 v. Philadelphia 76ers||72-89||Loss||-103||6 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +16
The Philadelphia 76ers are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but the odds are finally starting to catch up to them. Philly opened 11-2 ATS through their first 13 games as they flew under the radar. The 76ers are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last 5, losing to the Nets 90-97 as an 11-point favorite last time out.
There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have struggled in the early going. The good news is that because of their struggles, the betting public is off of them. This provides us with some excellent line value on the Bobcats going forward, especially tonight as a ridiculous 16-point underdog. They can get blown out and still cover this monster spread.
The Bobcats are 11-1 (92%) ATS in their last 12 road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. They are only losing by 5.1 points/game on average in this spot. The Bobcats are a superb 13-1 (93%) ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are actually winning in this spot by 4.9 points/game. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.
|01-27-12||Harvard v. Yale +6||65-35||Loss||-106||6 h 58 m||Show|
15* Ivy League PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +6
This is one of the most underrated rivalries in all sports. When Harvard and Yale get after it, the intensity level is as high as you will find. That's why I'll side with home underdog Yale to cover this generous spread against an overrated Harvard squad that should not be favored.
These are two very evenly-matched teams. Harvard returned 5 starters this season and is off to a 16-2 start. Yale returned 4 starters this year and has opened 12-4. Harvard won at home 78-75 last year, while Yale won at home 70-69. As you can see, the two meetings were decided by a combined 4 points, and I fully expect this one to go down to the wire as well.
Yale has been absolutely destroying its opponents at home this season. The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 at home, scoring 82.7 points/game on 51.0 percent shooting while allowing just 60.8 points/game on 38.8 percent shooting. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.9 points/game at home this year.
Harvard is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. The Crimson are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Harvard is 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Bulldogs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Take Yale Friday.
|01-26-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 193||Top||91-98||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The Clippers are coming off a grueling 91-96 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They'll be moving at a much slower pace in this one as they play the second of a back-to-back and control the tempo at home.
The Clippers are 6-4 to the UNDER in all home games this season. They are scoring 99.3 points/game and allowing 93.2 points/game for an average combined score of 192.5 points/game. As you can see, that average is slightly below the posted total tonight.
The real value comes in when you look at the numbers Memphis has posted on the road. The Grizzlies are 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season. They are scoring just 85.4 points/game on the road and allowing 91.6 points/game for an average combined score of 177.0 points/game. As you can see, that numbers is 16 points lower than the posted total tonight.
Memphis is 13-1 to the UNDER in their last 14 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. The Clippers are 8-0 to the UNDER in their last 8 home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game. These two trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|01-26-12||Colorado +1.5 v. USC||74-50||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado +1.5
The Colorado Buffaloes should not be an underdog in this game to overrated USC. The Trojans are constantly overvalued just because they are such a popular school. In fact, my math model shows that the Buffaloes should be roughly a 4.5-point favorite in this one.
Colorado has been under the radar all season. The Buffaloes are 13-6 on the year, including 9-6 ATS in all lined games, including 5-2 ATS in road lined games. This team is outscoring their opponents by 7.8 points/game on average. The Buffaloes score 69.8 points/game behind 45.2 percent shooting while allowing just 62.2 points/game on 39.2 percent shooting.
USC is clearly in a rebuilding year. The Trojans are just 5-15 on the season, including 7-12 ATS in lined games. Worse yet, USC is 3-8 SU & 1-9 ATS at home this season. This team simply doesn't have any offense as they score just 54.2 points/game. USC enters this contest on an eight-game losing streak and it is 0-7 in conference play. The fact that the Trojans are still favored just shows how overvalued they really are.
This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against a favorite (USC) - after 6 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins. The Trojans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games dating back to last year. Roll with Colorado Thursday.
|01-26-12||Boston College v. Virginia Cavaliers -17.5||49-66||Loss||-103||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -17.5
The Virginia Cavaliers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. This ACC title contender will have no problem making easy work of conference bottom feeder Boston College tonight. My math model shows the Cavaliers should win by 24-plus tonight.
Virginia is 15-3 this season and outscoring opponents by 14.1 points/game. The Cavaliers are 9-1 at home, outscoring foes by 18.2 points/game. Their only losses have come against TCU by 2, at Duke by 3 and vs. Virginia Tech by 2. They are coming off a loss to the Hokies, so there's no question this team is going to be ready to go tonight.
Boston College is just 7-12 on the season, getting outscored by 7.3 points/game. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road this year, losing by a whopping 13.0 points/game. They lost at NC State by 14 and vs. Wake Forest by 15 in their last two games, respectively. This will be their toughest ACC game yet aside from a 23-point loss at North Carolina.
The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Virginia is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off an upset loss as a favorite. These three trends make for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Thursday.
|01-25-12||Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3||Top||93-101||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3
The Golden State Warriors are in a great spot tonight. They are highly motivated from three straight losses by a combined 11 points. Plus, they catch Portland on a second of a back-to-back and playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
Golden State will be the more rested team tonight, and they'll be able to bring more energy to the floor while also playing with more passion to try and put an end to this recent skid. The Warriors will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days.
The Warriors have had the Blazers' numbers in recent years. Golden State has won three straight over Portland. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Warriors, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Golden State.
The Warriors have won the last two meetings in this series by 24 and 21 points, respectively. Portland just hasn't been able to keep up with these young, fresh legs that the Warriors offer. Look for Golden State to run them out of the building tonight. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.
|01-25-12||Alabama -4.5 v. South Carolina||54-56||Loss||-110||7 h 45 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama -4.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the real deal this season. They have played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country thus far. The Tide have managed a 13-6 record against this schedule while outscoring opponents by 9.1 points/game on average.
South Carolina is getting way too much respect with this line tonight. The Gamecocks are just 8-10 on the season despite playing the 174th-toughest schedule in the country. They stand no chance of keeping this one close tonight.
Alabama is going to be highly motivated to get back into the win column tonight following three straight losses. Those three setbacks came against the other three best teams in the SEC at Mississippi State (52-56, vs. Vanderbilt (59-69), and at Kentucky (71-77). After playing that daunting schedule, Alabama will feel like South Carolina is a high school team. They'll make easy work of the Gamecocks.
The Gamecocks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. South Carolina is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Gamecocks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Crimson Tide are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The favorite is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with Alabama Wednesday.
|01-25-12||New Jersey Nets +12 v. Philadelphia 76ers||97-90||Win||100||6 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +12
Sure, the New Jersey Nets are just 5-13 on the season, but a big reason for that is the schedule they have faced thus far. The Nets have played 11 road games compared to 7 home games. According to a source that I use, the Nets have played the second-toughest schedule in the league. New Jersey is clearly undervalued because of this.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been on the opposite end of the spectrum. Philly has opened 12-5 this season while blowing many teams out in the process. But the biggest reason for this is their schedule. According to a source I use, the 76ers have played the third-easiest schedule in the league thus far. They are overvalued right now.
New Jersey just played Chicago on the road last time out. The Bulls are the best team in the league according to a source I use, and the Nets lost to the Bulls by 15 points. New Jersey is now battle-tested and won't be afraid to go into Philly and take on another quality team tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-7 PPG differential), after allowing 85 points or less. Take the Nets Wednesday.
|01-25-12||Toledo +8.5 v. Miami Ohio||63-61||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo +8.5
The Toledo Rockets are getting no respect from the oddsmakers or the betting public tonight. I'll gladly back this underrated MAC squad as a big underdog to the overrated Miami (Ohio) Redhawks tonight.
While Toledo is just 9-10 on the season, the Rockets are actually outscoring opponents by 5.8 points/game. They are shooting 45.3 percent from the floor and allowing 42.2 percent shooting.
Miami (Ohio) is off to a woeful 5-12 start in what has been a rebuilding year for them. The Redhawks are getting outscored by 4.1 points/game on the season, and they have no business being this heavily-favored tonight.
The Redhawks are 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Miami (Ohio) is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends make for a 16-1 (94%) system backing Toledo. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
|01-25-12||St Bonaventure -5.5 v. Rhode Island||72-66||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -5.5
St. Bonaventure is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They are a much better team than Rhode Island, which continues to get too much respect. St. Bonaventure is 10-7 this season while Rhode Island is 3-17. The Bonnies have actually played a tougher schedule than the Rams as well.
The Bonnies are outscoring opponents by 5.9 points/game this season. Their strength is a defense that gives up just 62.7 points/game on 41.4 percent shooting. They are also scoring 68.6 points/game on a respectable 45.3 percent shooting.
The Rams are getting outscored by 7.9 points/game this season. Their weakness is a defense that allows 75.4 points/game and 49.0 percent shooting. Rhode Island is scoring 67.5 points/game, but they are only connecting on 40.1 percent of their shots.
These teams have faced five common opponents this season. St. Bonaventure is outscoring those five teams 68.2 to 62.6, or by an average of 5.6 points/game. Rhode Island is getting outscored 61.6 to 71.6 by those same five teams, or by an average of 10.0 points/game. Common opponents is a great way to compare teams.
The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. Rhode Island is 0-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Rams are 0-6 ATS as a home underdog or pick this season. These three trends make for a 19-0 system backing the Bonnies. Take St. Bonaventure Wednesday.
|01-24-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 187.5||84-97||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 187.5
I anticipate a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams come in tired after playing last night, so this will be the second of a back-to-back for each squad. Look for the tempo to be slow and the points to be hard to come by against two great half-court defenses.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Memphis' eight road games this season. The Grizzlies are scoring just 85.6 points/game while allowing only 90.9 points/game away from home. That's an average combined score of 176.5 points/game. Portland is only giving up 93.6 points/game in all games this year.
This play falls into a system that is 66-26 (71.7%) to the UNDER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after a close win by 3 points or less. Memphis used up a lot of energy erasing a 16-point deficit in the 4th quarter last night to come back and beat the Warriors 91-90.
Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 12-2 to the UNDER in their last 14 following six or more consecutive wins. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Portland. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-24-12||Iowa State +8 v. Texas||55-62||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +8
The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Cyclones are off to a 14-5 start this season and 4-2 in Big 12 play, which includes blowout road wins at Texas A&M (74-50) and at Texas Tech (76-52). Their only conference losses have come at home against Missouri 69-76 and at Kansas 73-82 in a game they led most the way.
Iowa State already won the first meeting with Texas 77-71 in their Big 12 opener at home. The Cyclones shot 51.1 percent from the field while limiting the Longhorns to 40.7 percent shooting. Five ISU players scored in double-figures, led by Chris Babb's 17 points which included a 5-of-9 performance from 3-point range.
Texas simply gets too much respect with their name recognition. This is a team in rebuilding mode with no returning starters from last year. As a result, the Longhorns are a sluggish 12-7 this season, including 5-9 against the spread. They have lost three straight coming into this one.
The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cyclones are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Longhorns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Texas. Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.
|01-24-12||Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -3||Top||102-83||Loss||-110||7 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3
The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Indiana looks to open 6-0 at home for the first time since 2002-03 on Tuesday night when it tries to snap a five-game skid in this series with the Orlando Magic, so payback will be on their minds as well.
Despite having two days of rest since defeating the Lakers 92-80 on Friday, Orlando set franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston last night. While the Pacers have lost their last three at home to the Magic, they have never lost four in a row at home to Orlando.
Indiana (11-4) is off to its best start in eight seasons despite playing only five home games, tied with Cleveland for fewest in the league. The Pacers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. They have won five of their last six overall, including a big road win at the Los Angeles Lakers two days ago.
The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central. Orlando is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Indiana is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.
|01-23-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5||Top||91-90||Loss||-109||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1.5
The Golden State Warriors are showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight against overrated Memphis. The Warriors are finally back to full strength with the return of Stephen Curry, who scored 12 points Friday after missing the previous eight games with a sprained right ankle.
So the Warriors have had two days off to prepare for the Grizzlies after last playing on Friday. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for Memphis. The Grizzlies are getting a lot of respect right now due to their 6-game winning streak, but five of those wins came against losing teams, and the other was against a Bulls team playing without MVP Derrick Rose.
The home team has won seven straight in this series. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Golden State Monday.
|01-23-12||Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics +4.5||56-87||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +4.5
The Boston Celtics should not be an underdog at home to the Orlando Magic tonight. While Boston has struggled in the early going, this team is still fully capable of beating any team in the league. The Magic are getting way too much respect with this line Monday.
Paul Pierce certainly looked like his old self in a 100-94 win at Washington yesterday. Pierce finished with a season-high 34 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. The Celtics have now won two of their last three to get right back on track.
Orlando is 9-20 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The Magic are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Orlando is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take the Celtics Monday.
|01-23-12||Syracuse v. Cincinnati +5.5||60-53||Loss||-107||7 h 40 m||Show|
15* ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +5.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are ready to hand Syracuse their second loss of the season tonight. The Orange were upset 67-58 at Notre Dame on Saturday. A big reason they lost is because they were without leading rebounder and shot blocker Fab Melo, who also won't play tonight for unspecified reasons.
The Bearcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 15-5 on the season, including 10-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 15.6 points/game. Cincinnati has won 10 of their last 12 overall with their two losses coming by a combined five points.
The Orange are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Bearcats Monday.
|01-22-12||NY Giants v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||161 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2.5
The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a huge win in the Divisional Round against the hottest team in football. This team has been winning with their defense for most of the year, but their offense took a huge step last weekend by matching the Saints score for score. San Francisco would score last on an Alex Smith touchdown pass to Vernon Davis with less than 20 seconds remaining to give the 49ers a 36-32 victory.
The 49ers head into the NFC Championship with all of the confidence in the world. They should be more than a 2.5-point favorite over the New York Giants, who are also coming off a big win at Green Bay. While the Packers had the best record in the NFL this year, they certainly looked vulnerable down the stretch. That was largely due to their league-worst defense, which let the Giants do basically whatever they wanted to.
San Francisco has the kind of defense that will give Eli Manning and company fits. Manning has been great on third downs during their four-game winning streak, but the 49ers only give up 35.2 percent conversions on third downs this season. San Francisco will force the Giants into tougher third downs by stopping the run, and they will make New York punt a lot more than they've been accustomed to of late.
The 49ers have been unstoppable at home all season. San Francisco is 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in nine home games, scoring 28.6 points and allowing 13.2 points. Their only loss came by a field goal in overtime to the Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by a whopping 15.4 points/game at home this year. Considering they have not lost against the spread at home this season, I'm going to ride that trend to yet another victory this weekend.
San Francisco already beat New York 27-20 at home earlier this season on November 13th. They jumped out to a 27-13 lead on a 17-yard touchdown run from Kendall Hunter early in the fourth quarter and never looked back. Frank Gore only carried the ball six times in that game before getting hurt, and now healthy, he will make a huge difference. San Francisco also picked off Manning twice in the win.
As mentioned before, the 49ers are 8-0 ATS at home this season. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game. These four trends make for a perfect 26-0 system backing San Francisco. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-22-12||Baltimore Ravens +9 v. New England Patriots||20-23||Win||100||144 h 40 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Pats NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Baltimore +9
The New England Patriots earned the top seed in the AFC with a 13-3 record in the the regular season. Baltimore earned the No. 2 seed as they tied for the second-best record in the AFC. It's only fitting that these two teams meet up in the AFC Championship in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire. Look for this one to come down to the very last possession either way.
New England is way overvalued heading into this game simply by the nature they beat the Denver Broncos last week. Baltimore didn't look all that impressive against Houston, but I picked the Texans to cover the spread and that team is the most underrated in the league in my opinion. So it was actually a great win for Baltimore, whereas New England beat one of the most overrated teams in the Broncos.
Baltimore has played New England very tough in recent years. They have had the defense that can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots passing attack, and that has not changed this season. The Ravens ranked No. 3 in the NFL in total defense this season at 288.9 yards/game. They forced four turnovers in their 20-13 victory over the Texans last week, time and time coming up with huge stops down the stretch.
While New England has won three of their last four meetings with Baltimore, all three of those wins came by six points or less, including two by a field goal. The Ravens had the only blowout during this stretch with a 33-14 win at New England in the playoffs at the end of the 2009-10 season. The Ravens held the Pats to just 196 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort. In fact, the Patriots have not exceeded 27 points or 400 yards in any of their last six meetings with Baltimore, and they are only averaging 22.5 points and 283.3 yards/game in those six contests.
The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Ravens are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game. Look for Joe Flacco to have a huge day against this New England defense that ranks 31st in total yards allowed (411.1) and 31st against the pass (293.9). Take Baltimore Sunday.
|01-22-12||Wisconsin v. Illinois +1.5||67-63||Loss||-107||4 h 35 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois +1.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini should not be an underdog at home today to the Wisconsin Badgers. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers getting Illinois at this kind of price in a game I have them winning outright with ease.
Home-court advantage has always been huge in the Big Ten, and that's the case again this season, especially for the home team tonight. Illinois is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.8 points/game. The Illini even beat Ohio State in their last home game, which is the best team in the Big Ten as I see it.
The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Fighting Illini are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Illinois Sunday.
|01-21-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz -7||Top||98-108||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They made a rare National TV appearance last night on ESPN, and erased a double-digit deficit to come all the way back and beat the Chris Paul-less Los Angeles Clippers. Kevin Love hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.
Look for the Timberwolves to come out sluggish tonight against the Utah Jazz. Meanwhile, the Jazz will come out motivated following a rare home loss Thursday on National TV to the Dallas Mavericks. Utah is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points/game.
Utah has won three straight home meetings with Minnesota by 15, 8 and 22 points, respectively. The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the Jazz Saturday.
|01-21-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Jersey Nets +8||84-74||Loss||-110||10 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8
The New Jersey Nets are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. While Oklahoma City owns the best record in the Western Conference at 12-3, they really aren't blowing out opponents. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.5 points/game overall and by 2.2 points/game on the road.
The New Jersey Nets have played much better of late. They have recent wins over both Phoenix and Golden State, and they also played Denver and the L.A. Clippers tough on the road. This team is finally hitting its stride and should show great improvement the rest of the way as Deron Williams and company continue to mesh.
The Nets are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. New Jersey is 13-3 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nets Saturday.
|01-21-12||Missouri +5 v. Baylor||89-88||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
15* Mizzou/Baylor Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri +5
I believe the Missouri Tigers are one of the top three teams in the country. I also believe that Baylor is way overvalued after their long unbeaten run to open the season, which came mostly against soft competition. Missouri is the real deal, while Baylor is a bunch of fakers. That will show on the court Saturday.
Both teams enter this huge showdown at 17-1 on the season. There's no question in my mind that the Tigers have played the tougher schedule. The Bears were exposed last time out with a 74-92 loss at Kansas as their true colors showed through. Don't get me wrong, this is still a quality team, but there's no doubt that Missouri is superior after watching both teams play on several occasions this year.
The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Baylor is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Missouri Saturday.
|01-20-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic OVER 181.5||Top||80-92||Loss||-113||8 h 45 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Magic ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 181.5
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic should have not problem combining to score more than the posted total tonight. Oddsmakers have simply set the bar too low for a pair of 10-win teams that will light it up offensively tonight. Both squads take good shots as each is hitting 45.5 percent from the field this season.
Orlando is averaging 97.3 points/game while allowing 92.4 points/game this season. That's an average combined score of 189.7 points/game. The Magic like to push the tempo a little bit, and playing at home, they will control the tempo tonight. The Lakers give up 98.8 points/game on the road this season, and they are combining with their opponents to average 190.1 points/game away from home.
This play falls into a system that is 44-16 (73.3%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less.
The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 Friday games. These three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|01-20-12||Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 186||114-75||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 186
While many teams in this league have struggled offensively because of the lockout, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers have not. Chicago is averaging 95.1 points/game while Cleveland is putting up 96.4 points/game.
Better yet, the Cavaliers are putting up 101.0 points/game at home giving up 98.0 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 199.0 points/game. The Bulls are scoring 97.6 points/game on the road and allowing 94.1 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 191.7 points/game. Given these averages, you can see why there is solid value with this OVER tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 43-14 (75.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - an excellent defensive team (<=88 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more.
The OVER is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|01-20-12||Denver Nuggets v. Washington Wizards +7||108-104||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7
The Washington Wizards are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Wizards have played much better of late after a very slow start. Washington is coming off a huge 105-102 home win over the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. That victory showed what they are capable of, and I look for the Wizards to come in with a lot of confidence against the Nuggets tonight.
The Nuggets are off to a solid 10-5 start, but they are only outscoring opponents by 5.6 points/game this season, including 4.0 points/game on the road. The Wizards are only getting outscored by 5.1 points/game at home. There is at least a couple points of value with the home underdog tonight.
This is also a huge look-ahead spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Denver plays New York tomorrow. The Nuggets have several players on their team that were in a blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York. These Denver players certainly want revenge on their former team, and will be looking forward to that tomorrow. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|01-19-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Utah Jazz -2.5||Top||94-91||Loss||-107||10 h 26 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Jazz NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5
The Utah Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. Because they are not a flashy team, the betting public is off of them as they continue to stay out of the media. But this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, and they have been nearly unstoppable at home.
Utah is off to a 9-4 start this season. The Jazz have been red hot of late, going 8-1 in their last nine games overall. Utah is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 98.7 to 89.4 or by an average of 9.3 points/game. Their only home loss came in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Dallas Mavericks are clearly down this season and not nearly as motivated as they were last year when they won the NBA Championship. The Mavs are just 8-7 on the year, including back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams. This is a tough spot for Dallas as it will be the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Mavericks are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The home team is 23-7-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in this series, and Utah is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Dallas. Bet the Jazz Thursday.
|01-19-12||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech OVER 143||82-68||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* UNC/VA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 143
The UNC Tar Heels and the Virginia Tech Hokies are each coming off poor offensive performances. I look for both to try and get out in transition a little more tonight to find easy baskets that just haven't been there in recent games. This one should have no problem sailing OVER the posted total by game's end.
North Carolina averages 85.2 points/game while giving up 67.2 points/game for an average combined score of 152.4 points/game. That's why it was so shocking to see them score just 57 points in a 57-90 blowout loss at Florida State last weekend. After such a poor offensive performance, you can bet head coach Roy Williams will have his team ready to go off on the scoreboard tonight.
Virginia Tech has been held to less than 60 points in each of their last three games during a 3-game losing streak. "We're not playing fast enough," coach Seth Greenberg said during the ACC's weekly teleconference. "We've got to get out in transition. Our wing guys aren't running hard enough." From those comments, it's easy to see that Greenberg will have his team looking to run a lot more tonight.
VA Tech is 9-1 to the OVER after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less since 1997. The Hokies are 6-0 to the OVER in home games after a game with 9 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. These two trends make for a 15-1 (94%) system backing the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|01-19-12||USC v. Oregon -6.5||62-65||Loss||-110||8 h 15 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -6.5
The Oregon Ducks should roll right over the USC Trojans to a blowout home victory tonight. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Oregon is a contender in the Pac-12, while USC is a bottom feeder. The final score of this game should reflect that Thursday.
Oregon is 13-5 this season, including 9-2 at home where they are only allowing 62.9 points/game and 41.4 percent shooting. The Ducks are off to a solid 4-2 conference mark, which is really impressive considering they've played four of their first six Pac-12 games on the road. They beat Washington State, Arizona State and Arizona away from home.
USC is just 5-13 on the season, including 2-5 on the road. The Trojans weakness is an offense that produces a mere 53.6 points/game on 39.7 percent shooting. USC has opened 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in conference play this season. Four of those five losses came by eight points or more, including a 47-66 home loss to UCLA last time out.
Oregon is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=63% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. USC is 0-7 ATS after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls over the last 2 seasons. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Ducks are 6-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. These four trends make for a 26-0 system backing the Ducks. Roll with Oregon Thursday.
|01-18-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5||93-87||Loss||-106||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +4.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value tonight as a home underdog to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are getting too much respect here as they should not be laying points on the road without their best player. Zach Randolph remains out with a with a knee injury.
It's like night and day for Memphis home and away. The Grizzlies are an impressive 5-2 at home, but they are only 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road. Memphis is only scoring 80.6 points/game and allowing 93.8 points/game while getting outscored by 13.2 points/game away from home.
This is a great revenge spot for the Hornets. New Orleans lost at Memphis 99-108 as a 10.5-point underdog just five days ago, so there's no question that that loss is fresh in their minds. They'll be trying extra hard tonight to get some payback. Plus, this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days, so the Hornets come in rested.
The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Worse yet, the Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. This is an ideal spot to fade Memphis. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|01-18-12||Denver Nuggets v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5||Top||108-104||Loss||-105||7 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5
The Philadelphia 76ers should be laying a bigger number tonight against the Denver Nuggets. Somehow, these 76ers are still going under the radar despite being the most profitable team in the league at the betting window. I'll continue to ride them until the value is no longer there.
Philly is 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS this season, with all three losses coming on the road. The 76ers are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 102.5 points/game and allowing 79.5 points/game while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 23.0 points/game at home.
Denver is a mediocre 3-3 on the road this season. Their road wins have come against Dallas, New Orleans and Milwaukee, so nothing special. The Nuggets are a tired team right now as this will be their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Philly had yesterday off and this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days.
The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Philly. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|01-18-12||Indiana -3 v. Nebraska||69-70||Loss||-109||7 h 39 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -3
The Indiana Hoosers are way undervalued heading into tonight due to their first set of consecutive losses this season. Indiana is still one of the best teams in the country, but back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Ohio State has the betting public off of them right now. This is the perfect time to jump on board.
Nebraska is nowhere near the team that Indiana is. The Huskers are just 9-8 on the season, and not even home-court advantage will save them tonight. This is a Nebraska team that was blown out at home by Wisconsin 40-64 and by Michigan State 55-68. I like Indiana's chances of winning this game by double-digits as well, though we only need a 4-point victory to get the cash.
The Hoosiers have clearly turned things around this season under head coach Tom Crean. Indiana is 15-3 SU and 8-4 ATS on the year, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points/game. Crean will have his troops highly motivated tonight as they look to bounce back from consecutive losses. There's no question the Hoosiers will be putting their best foot forward in Lincoln.
The Huskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Nebraska is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. The Huskers are only scoring 61.1 points/game this season and they stand no chance of hanging with a Hoosiers team that is putting up 80.8 points/game. Roll with Indiana Wednesday.
|01-17-12||Maryland Terrapins +11.5 v. Florida State||Top||70-84||Loss||-103||8 h 20 m||Show|
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +11.5
This is the perfect spot to fade the Florida State Seminoles. Florida State is in a huge letdown spot coupled with a look-ahead situation. It just doesn't get any better than this in terms of finding situations to fade a team that is primed for a poor performance.
The Seminoles are coming off a huge 90-57 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday. It was the most shocking score of the season, but that win moved FSU to just 11-6 on the season. The Seminoles won't be able to match the intensity they brought to the UNC game tonight against the Maryland Terrapins.
Plus, FSU has Duke coming up next. They will play the Blue Devils on the road this Saturday, and they will certainly be looking ahead to that game. All signs point toward not only a Maryland cover tonight, but a great chance for an outright victory for the Terrapins.
Maryland has finally gotten healthy, and they've been on a roll ever since. The Terrapins are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, with their only loss coming at NC State 74-79 as an 11.5-point underdog. The Terrapins are now 12-4 on the season under underrated first-year head coach Mark Turgeon.
Maryland has won five of their last six meetings with Florida State, going a perfect 6-0 ATS since 2007. The Seminoles are 14-31-3 ATS in their last 48 games as a home favorite. FSU is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers today, who knew that the betting public would be all over the Seminoles after their huge win over UNC. That forced them to set the number way too high tonight. Bet Maryland Tuesday.
|01-17-12||Phoenix Suns +9.5 v. Chicago Bulls||97-118||Loss||-110||7 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9.5
It's amazing that there is even a line up for this game considering Derrick Rose (toe) is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. The good news is I like Phoenix whether Rose plays or not. The great news is that if he doesn't play, then getting the Suns at 9.5 is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.
Rose did not play yesterday in a 86-102 loss at Memphis. This is a very tired Chicago team right now, and even if Rose plays, the rest of their players are going to be worn down. This will be Chicago's 7th game in 9 days, and their 11th game in 15 days. It's clearly their toughest stretch of the season.
Phoenix comes in on solid rest as this will be only their 2nd game in four days. The big reason they are showing such great value is due to their 4-game losing streak. They have failed to cover four straight against the spread, but now is the time to jump on board. You won't find Phoenix showing much better value the rest of the season than they are tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.
|01-17-12||Texas Tech +12.5 v. Oklahoma||55-64||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +12.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are showing great value as a big road underdog to the Oklahoma Sooners Tuesday. Tech has played an extremely brutal stretch of games to open their conference schedule, so they will certainly be battle-tested heading into this contest with Oklahoma.
This might be their easiest Big 12 game yet. The Red Raiders lost at Oklahoma State, at home to Baylor and Kansas, and then at Texas A&M in their last four games, respectively. They were a double-digit underdog in all four contests, but they only lost once by more than 13 points.
Oklahoma has opened 1-3 in conference play. While the Sooners appear to be better than the Red Raiders on paper, this team should not be favored by double-digits tonight. These are two very evenly matched teams with the only advantage the Sooners having is home court. That's not worth 12.5 points.
Texas Tech has won three of their last four meetings with Oklahoma, going 3-1 ATS in the process. The Red Raiders are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12 opponents. Time and time again this team is undervalued in conference play. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 foes. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.
|01-16-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers -4||Top||70-73||Loss||-105||11 h 22 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Lakers NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4
The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a small home favorite against the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers want this game more than any other game they will play during the regular season. Los Angeles was swept in the second round of the playoffs last year by the Mavericks, and there's no question they want revenge.
While Dallas is riding a five-game winning streak, they have beating up on some very suspect opponents. Their five wins have come against the Hornets, Pistons, Celtics, Bucks and Kings. All five of those teams have losing records and they are a combined 18-42 on the season.
The Lakers are the real deal this year and they are starting to really click under new head coach Mike Brown. L.A. has won five of their last six games overall, and they've been virtually unstoppable at home. The Lakers are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game.
The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Look for Kobe Bryant to go off for 40-plus points for a fifth straight game tonight while leading his team to a win and cover. Bet the Lakers Monday.
|01-16-12||Baylor +7 v. Kansas||74-92||Loss||-101||10 h 26 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baylor +7
The Baylor Bears should not be this big of an underdog to the Kansas Jayhawks, if even a dog at all Monday. The clear value in this game is with the Bears, who are one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. But for whatever reason, this team is not getting the respect it deserves.
Baylor (17-0, 4-0 Big 12) is one of three undefeated teams in Division I entering Monday's games. The Bears want to put an end to Kansas' run of seven straight Big 12 regular season titles. They want to make a statement tonight and show the country that they are for real.
Baylor's size has posed plenty of trouble for opponents, with three of the last four teams the Bears have faced shooting below 40 percent. Baylor ranks 11th in the nation in field-goal defense (37.2 percent). Their length should help halt a Kansas team that had to rally from a 12-point deficit in the second half to beat Iowa State at home on Saturday.
The road team has absolutely been dominant in this series. The road team is a perfect 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last six visits to Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas is 15-30 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-7.0. Take Baylor Monday.
|01-16-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers -8.5||82-94||Win||100||3 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -8.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps the most underrated team in the league this season. This squad just keeps crushing the opposition, especially at home. The 76ers are so deep that they will really benefit from this lockout-shortened season all year.
Philly is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season, making backers a fortune at the betting window. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home, scoring 104.2 points/game while allowing 79.0 points/game for an average margin of victory over a ridiculous 25.2 points/game. The 76ers have seven players averaging double-digit points.
The Milwaukee Bucks are just 4-7 this season. Milwaukee has yet to win on the road, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away from home. The Bucks are only scoring 87.0 points/game on 39.9 percent shooting on the road. They are allowing 96.9 points/game, so the Bucks are getting outscored by an average of 9.9 points/game away from home.
Philly is 8-0 ATS in home games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. These four trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Philly. Roll with the 76ers Monday.
|01-15-12||NY Giants v. Green Bay Packers -7.5||37-20||Loss||-105||96 h 24 m||Show|
15* Giants/Packers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Green Bay -7.5
The Green Bay Packers have been unstoppable at home all season. I know the Giants are playing well here of late, but going into Lambeau Field and coming away with a victory is a tall task. I think New York's luck runs out Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champs, and the best team in the league.
The Packers went 15-1 this season despite resting numerous starters, including Aaron Rodgers, in a 45-41 victory over the Detroit Lions in their season finale. Green Bay went 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 40.1 points/game while allowing 21.4 points/game. They outscored their opponents by a whopping 18.7 points/game at home this year.
Despite going 5-3 on the road, the Giants were actually outscored 26.0 to 26.9 away from home. As you can see, they gave up nearly 27.0 points/game on the road, and they also allowed a ridiculous 396 yards/game. This defense has played better in recent weeks, but they will have no answer for Rodgers and the best scoring offense in the NFL.
While the Packers are ranked 32nd in the league in total defense, it's clear that that means nothing. Green Bay scores so quickly on offense that the other team simply gets more opportunities with the ball, thus they are going to rack up more yardage. It's important to note that the Packers had a league-high 31 interceptions this season and were +24 in turnovers, which was the second-best mark in the NFL. This clearly makes up for the yardage they gave up defensively.
Aaron Rodgers has simply sliced up this New York defense each of the last two times he has faced the Giants. Rodgers threw for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns in their 45-17 home victory over the Giants at the end of last season. He threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in their 38-35 road victory over New York earlier this season. The Packers racked up a combined 964 yards (482/game) in those two games.
The Packers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Green Bay is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. Roll with Green Bay Sunday.
|01-15-12||Houston Texans +9 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||13-20||Win||100||93 h 54 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +9
The Houston Texans simply have not gotten the respect the deserve since TJ Yates took over as starting quarterback. You have to remember that this was a run-first team even with Matt Schaub under center to start the season. They should have been a bigger favorite last week when I backed them as a 3-point favorite in a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati.
The Texans certainly should not be getting this many points against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Houston has the better offense and the better defense statistically. The Texans are 2nd in the league in total defense (285.7 yards/game) while the Ravens are 3rd (288.9 yards/game). Houston is 13th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 yards/game) while the Ravens are 15th (338.7 yards/game).
Houston has the perfect formula to win in the playoffs. You always have a chance if you have a running game and a stout defense. I know the regular season has been home to several passing records this year, but when it comes to the playoffs, you need a running game and a defense to be successful. Houston has what it takes to pull off this upset Sunday.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
Having already played the Ravens once, the Texans will be much more prepared this time around. The Texans were also playing without Andre Johnson in that 14-29 loss to Baltimore, but he is back and healthy now. Johnson led the Texans with five receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati last week. He makes a huge difference when he's on the field.
The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. These five trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing Houston. Bet the Texans Sunday.
|01-14-12||New Orleans Hornets +11 v. Memphis Grizzlies||99-108||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +11
The New Orleans Hornets should not be catching double-digits against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is not at full strength, thus they shouldn't be this heavily favored. The Grizzlies are still playing without their best player in Zach Randolph, who makes a huge difference for this team.
This play falls into a system that is 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Because the Hornets have hit a rough patch recently, they are now showing the kind of value that's worth backing. Roll with New Orleans Saturday.
|01-14-12||Denver Broncos +14 v. New England Patriots||Top||10-45||Loss||-115||76 h 0 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Patriots NFL Saturday Night BAILOUT on Denver +14
The Denver Broncos have an excellent chance to stay with the New England Patriots Sunday and cover this large number. They already played the Patriots tough earlier this season in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Denver is coming off a huge 29-23 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round. They looked like they could beat anyone last Sunday, compiling 447 total yards including 316 passing and three total touchdowns from Tim Tebow. That was against the league's top-ranked defense coming in.
The Broncos had no problem moving the ball the first time they played New England, but they simply beat themselves with turnovers. Denver totaled 393 yards with 252 rushing and 141 passing in their 23-41 loss to New England on 12/18, but they lost three fumbles while the Patriots did not turn the ball over once. If they can at least play the turnover battle even Saturday, they have a chance to beat the Patriots.
This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (DENVER) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season.
New England is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. These last three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Broncos. Bet Denver Saturday.
|01-14-12||New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +4||32-36||Win||100||72 h 24 m||Show|
15* Saints/49ers NFL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4
The San Francisco 49ers should not be an underdog at home to the New Orleans Saints Saturday. New Orleans is way overvalued right now after they way they finished the season. But the fact of the matter is that the Saints aren't the same team on the road that they are at home. Public perception on New Orleans right now is at an all-time high, which is why the 49ers are showing such great value.
The Saints are just 5-3 on the road this season with three of their wins coming by five points or less. Their two blowout road wins came against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings. If the Saints do manage to win Sunday, it won't be by more than a field goal, which would give us the cover.
San Francisco has the type of team it takes to beat the Saints. You need a ball-control offense and a tremendous defense that can get Drew Brees and company off the field on 3rd downs. The Saints have converted 57.1 percent of their 3rd downs this season, but the 49ers only allow 35.2 percent 3rd down conversions on defense.
The 49ers were tremendous at home this year. San Francisco posted a 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS mark on home soil. Not only did they beat opponents at home, they absolutely destroyed them. The 49ers average 27.6 points/game and gave up only 10.9 points/game while outscoring foes by a whopping 16.7 points/game. I expect the 49ers to stay unbeaten against the spread at home with an outright victory. Take San Francisco Saturday.
|01-14-12||Iowa State +14 v. Kansas||73-82||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +14
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have opened the season 12-4 and the Cyclones will be giving the Kansas Jayhawks a run for their money on the road Saturday.
Iowa State has shown what they are capable of in Big 12 play. They knocked off Texas 77-71 at home before going on the road and crushing Texas A&M 74-50. ISU would lose to Missouri 69-76 at home last time out, but that's not a bad loss considering I believe the Tigers are the best team in the Big 12, hands down.
Kansas is a quality team this season, but this is clearly a team in rebuilding mode after losing the Morris Twins to graduation. The Jayhawks are a respectable 13-3, but they just don't have that "wow" factor that they do most year. This team is certainly beatable.
The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Kansas is 15-29 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|01-13-12||Miami Heat -3.5 v. Denver Nuggets||Top||104-117||Loss||-102||10 h 25 m||Show|
20* Heat/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3.5
The Miami Heat are not about to lose three in a row. After back-to-back overtime losses, I have Miami bouncing back in a big way tonight in Denver. Look for the Heat to be more motivated for this game than any other so for this season. This team is very dangerous when they play with a chip on their shoulder.
Denver is not a good defensive team, and they have no chance containing Lebron, Wade and Bosh in this one. The Heat lead the league in scoring at 106.6 points/game while connecting on a ridiculous 48.8 percent of their shots. This is simply not a good match-up for the Nuggets.
This play falls into a system that is 87-41 (68%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites (MIAMI) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=43% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
The Heat are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet Miami Friday.
|01-13-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||92-97||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5
Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are laying double-digits, they are overvalued. The Lakers are a good team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but this is a team notorious for playing down to their competition.
The Lakers are a respectable 8-4 this season, but five of their last six wins have come by single-digits. They aren't built for blowing teams out, and they rely way too much on Kobe Bryant to be able to win in blowouts consistently.
Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league this year. The Cavs are off to a solid 5-5 start this season, and they are coming off a huge 101-90 road victory over the Phoenix Suns last night. What's most impressive about their 5-5 start is that seven of their first 10 games have come on the road.
The Cavs want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year. Cleveland lost in L.A. 57-112 in a game that symbolized the low point of their season. They would eventually get payback with a 104-99 home victory over the Lakers a little more than a month later, but this team wants real revenge by going into L.A. and coming away with a victory tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Take the Cavaliers Friday.
|01-13-12||Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 194||83-99||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 194
The Spurs and Blazers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly by setting the bar way too high in this one. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as all signs points toward a low-scoring affair.
Just looking at Portland's road numbers, it's easy to see why I'm siding with the UNDER tonight. The Blazers are scoring 89.3 points/game on the road and allowing 96.0 points/game for an average combined score of 185.3 points/game. Scoring won't get any easier for Portland tonight as they're up against a San Antonio team that gives up just 91.3 points/game at home.
The biggest reason for this play is recent head-to-head games between these teams. The Blazers and Spurs have combined to score 194 or less points in 10 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-13-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. New Orleans Hornets +1.5||87-80||Loss||-100||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets +1.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves have no business being a favorite at New Orleans tonight. While Minnesota has received a lot of hype from Ricky Rubio and company, they simply have not lived up to expectations. At the same time, the Hornets are a better team than they get credit for even with the loss of Chris Paul.
Minnesota is just 3-7 this season, which includes road losses at Toronto and Milwaukee. This is a team that was supposed to be improved with the additions or Rubio and Derrick Williams among others, but they simply have not clicked in the early going. It's going to take some time for this team to gel.
New Orleans is also 3-7, but they have played an absolute brutal schedule. Their last five games have come against Denver twice, Philly, Dallas and Oklahoma City. This team is battle-tested and will be looking forward to a "break" tonight with the lowly Timberwolves coming to town.
The Timberwolves are 5-24 ATS in their last 29 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Hornets Friday.
|01-13-12||Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics +2.5||88-79||Loss||-105||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston +2.5
The Boston Celtics should not be catching points at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls. Boston is going to be very hungry tonight after back-to-back home losses to the Pacers and Mavericks to drop them to below .500 on the season.
While Derrick Rose is expected to play for Chicago tonight, it won't matter. Rose missed last game with a toe injury and he'll be playing through pain tonight if he goes. Richard Hamilton doubtful with a groin injury and C.J. Watson is out with an ankle injury. The Bulls are certainly vulnerable right now.
Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in this rivalry between the Bulls and Celtics. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings in this series, and Boston has won six of their last seven at home against Chicago. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings as well.
The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Boston is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. You certainly want to back this team after a rough stretch and also when they are an underdog. Take the Celtics Friday.
|01-12-12||Orlando Magic v. Golden State Warriors OVER 187.5||Top||117-109||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
20* Magic/Warriors NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 187.5
The oddsmakers have set the bar far too low tonight in the Orlando vs. Golden State game. These are two well-rested teams and each will want to push the pace tonight because of it. Look for a high-scoring game that exceeds 200 combined points tonight.
Orlando will be playing just their 2nd games in four days. They have gone OVER the total in their last two. Orlando beat Sacramento 104-97 on the road on 1/8 followed by a 107-104 road victory over Portland last night. Look for their hot shooting to continue tonight against a soft Warriors defense.
Golden State will be playing just their 2nd game in five days. They are coming off a 111-106 overtime victory over the Miami Heat just two nights ago. They put up 96 points in regulation and 15 more in overtime despite shooting just 40.0 percent from the floor. I look for their shooting numbers to improve tonight against Orlando.
The Warriors and Magic have combined to score 194 or more points in each of their last eight meetings. This makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. While these are two new teams this season, there's no question the value in this game is with the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|01-12-12||Oregon State v. Arizona -5||73-81||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -5
The Arizona Wildcats showing solid value as a 5-point home favorite over the Oregon State Beavers. This is a very generous line from oddsmakers, and one that I cannot wait to take advantage of.
Arizona was a very young team coming into the season with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Now that we are nearly halfway through the season, the Wildcats are a lot more experienced and should be a force in the Pac-12 down the stretch.
The Wildcats are 8-1 at home this season, scoring 71.0 points/game and allowing 57.4 points/game while outscoring opponents by 13.6 points/game. They are off to a solid 2-1 start in conference play.
Both teams are 11-5 right now, but Arizona has played far and away the tougher schedule. That's why they are showing such good value tonight because this team is better than their record. The Beavers have shown their true colors in Pac-12 action, opening 1-3 within the conference.
The Beavers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The home team has won three straight in this series, with the last two being won by Arizona by 9 and 11 points, respectively. Take the Wildcats Thursday.
|01-12-12||New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 194||83-94||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Grizzlies NBA on TNT BEST BET on UNDER 194
Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Memphis Grizzlies. Of course, their natural habit is to set the number too high in Knicks games considering this team hasn't played defense for years now. However, that's not the case this season.
New York is 7-3 to the UNDER in all games, including 4-1 to the UNDER in road games. The Knicks are scoring just 95.3 points/game this season while allowing 93.7 points/game for an average combined score of 189.0 points/game. They are only allowing 91.8 points/game on the road this year as well.
Memphis is scoring 91.0 points/game this season an d allowing 95.1 points/game for an average combined score of 186.1 points/game. As you can see, that number is well below the posted total tonight, and the same goes for New York. Just looking at both team's season averages it's easy to see that the value is with the UNDER in this contest.
New York is 9-1 to the UNDER in their last 10 road games following a division game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games overall. These three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|01-11-12||Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 203||89-95||Loss||-105||10 h 22 m||Show|
15* Heat/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203
The Miami Heat have brought a pace and space philosophy into the new season under head coach Erik Spoelstra. He went to Oregon football coach Chip Kelly to get some advice on this pace and space style. As a result, the Heat are now playing the most up-tempo style in the league to take advantage of their superior athleticism.
Miami leads the league in scoring at 108.1 points/game, which is 6.4 points more than second place. However, the Heat have the fourth-worst scoring defense at 98.0 points/game. So as you can see, Miami is combining with their opponents to average 206.1 points/game this season. They have gone 7-3 to the OVER in all games.
The Clippers have a very good team this season with the additions they made in the offseason. L.A. is 8th in the league in scoring at 99.3 points/game, but they are just 25th in scoring defense at 97.6 points/game. The Clippers are a team that can keep pace with the Heat, and I look for a high-scoring game because of it.
The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|01-11-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Orleans Hornets +7||Top||95-85||Loss||-110||8 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7
The New Orleans Hornets are showing solid value tonight as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. New Orleans has a very good chance to be a profitable team this year at the pay window because the betting public does not want to back them after trading away Chris Paul. I still believe this team has plenty of talent overall to compete this season.
Oklahoma City is way overvalued tonight due to their 9-2 start to the season. This will be OKC's 5th game in 6 days, which is a tough stretch for any team. While the Thunder have nine wins this year, five of those victories have come by 5 points or less. This is a good team, but luck has clearly been on their side in the early going.
New Orleans is coming off their best win of the season, a 94-81 road victory over the Denver Nuggets. With a night off in between games, this team will return home playing with a lot of confidence tonight. They will be the fresher team, and I can certainly see the Thunder overlooking the Hornets just like the Nuggets did two nights ago.
The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The home team has won four of the last five in this series. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|01-11-12||Missouri -4 v. Iowa State||76-69||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -4
The Missouri Tigers are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a mere 4-point favorite over the Iowa State Cyclones. This line is too much of an overreaction from what happened in the last game for both Missouri and Iowa State.
If the Tigers were still unbeaten, they'd be a much heavier favorite tonight. Instead, Missouri has dropped to 14-1 after their 59-75 road loss at Kansas State last time out. I believe this loss could certainly be good for them, and I fully expect the Tigers to respond in a big way tonight.
Iowa State is overvalued right now due to their current 7-game winning streak, which includes a 2-0 start in the Big 12 with wins over Texas and Texas A&M. Both the Longhorns and Aggies are down this season, but ISU went into College Station and came away with a victory last time out, which has caught the eyes of the better public. This team is simply not as good as their current perception, and they cannot live up to these expectations.
This play falls into a system that is 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an favorite or pick (MISSOURI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season. The Tigers are still outscoring teams by a whopping 22.5 points/game this season, and they get right back to their dominant ways tonight. Take Missouri Wednesday.
|01-10-12||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 188||105-113||Loss||-108||9 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Jazz UNDER 188
I believe oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this game between Cleveland and Utah Tuesday. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what should be a very low-scoring game in Utah tonight.
Just looking at their home/away numbers, it's easy to see why the value is with the UNDER in this one. Cleveland is scoring 89.8 points/game on the road while allowing 92.8 points/game for an average combined score of 182.6 points/game. Utah is scoring 93.7 points/game at home and allowing 86.7 points/game for an average combined score of 180.4 points/game.
Cleveland is 3-0 to the UNDER in their last 3 games with combined scores of 169, 185 and 176 points. Utah is 3-1 to the UNDER in thier last 4 games with combined scores of 184, 158, 179 and 175 points. The UNDER is 8-0 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Jazz last 9 games following a ATS win. These two trends make for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-10-12||Northern Iowa v. Creighton UNDER 140.5||60-63||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa/Creighton UNDER 140.5
Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set tonight on the college hardwood. Northern Iowa and Creighton are two very good defensive teams, and they will not come close to exceeding this inflated total tonight.
Northern Iowa runs a slow-down game with a ton of half-court sets on offense. They also feature the best defense in the MVC. UNI is scoring 68.7 points/game this season and allowing 60.2 points/game for an average combined score of 128.9 points/game. As you can see, that average is well below this posted total tonight.
While Creighton has been very good offensively this year, the Blue Jays have yet to play a team that gets after it defensively quite like Northern Iowa. Creighton is also allowing a respectable 69.3 points/game this year while playing some very good offensive teams.
Perhaps the most telling stat heading into this one is that the UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Creighton and Northern Iowa have combined to score 117, 118, 137, 122 and 112 points in their last 5 meetings, respectively. That's an average of 121.2 points/game, which is roughly 19 points below this posted total tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-10-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -3 v. Memphis Grizzlies||Top||100-95||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3
The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. OKC has had Memphis' number dating back to last season, and I don't see that changing here Tuesday. The Thunder have won four of their last five meetings with the Grizzlies.
A big reason I expect OKC to win in a blowout tonight is the fact that Memphis will be without their best player. Zach Randolph has missed the past four games with a knee injury and he's expected to be out until late February. This team was already thin in the frontcourt with Darrell Arthur out for the season.
The Thunder are off to a fast 8-2 start and I don't see them slowing down. This is the best team in the West in my opinion and I have them going all the way to the NBA Finals. The Thunder won their first meeting of the season with Memphis 98-95 on the road despite Russell Westbrook having the worst shooting games of his career. He missed all 13 field goal attempts and finished with four points.
The Thunder are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 Tuesday games. OKC is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Memphis. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Oklahoma City Tuesday.
|01-09-12||Alabama +1 v. LSU||Top||21-0||Win||100||175 h 35 m||Show|
20* 'Bama/LSU BCS Championship BEST BET on Alabama +1
The Alabama Crimson Tide were fortunate to get a shot at revenge against LSU. I believe they are going to make the most of it by dominating the Tigers in the rematch. Alabama was clearly the better team in their first meeting, but found a way to lose by beating themselves. They won't make the same mistakes again.
Alabama outgained LSU 295-239 in their first meetings. The Crimson Tide really lost the game on special teams as field goal kicker Cade Foster missed four times in their 6-9 overtime loss. The Tide also committed a turnover at the goal line as their receiver was about to go into the end zone for a touchdown before having the ball stripped away.
The Crimson Tide simply have the better offense and the better defense coming into this one. Alabama averages 433.4 total yards/game behind a balanced attack that averages 220 on the ground and 214 through the air. The Tide are also No. 1 in the country in total defense (191.2 yards/game). LSU averages 375.3 yards/game offensively while giving up 252.1 yards/game defensively.
The Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends make for a 17-1 (94%) system backing the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Monday.
|01-09-12||Atlanta Hawks v. New Jersey Nets +6||106-101||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +6
The New Jersey Nets should not be catching six points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. New Jersey is showing their best value of the season with this spread. They are a bit undervalued right now due to their slow 2-7 start.
A big reason for the Nets' struggles in the early going has been injuries. But this team has started to get healthier of late with both PG Deron Williams and F Kris Humphries recently returning from injuries. These are their two best players, so having them on the floor is obviously very important.
Atlanta is off to a 6-3 start, so they are a bit overvalued right now. The Hawks have also covered four of their last five, which has given them some extra respect from oddsmakers. Atlanta is going to be without starting F Marvin Williams in this game due to an ankle injury. It's clear that the value in this game is with the big home dog.
The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. New Jersey is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following two or more consecutive wins. Take the Nets Monday.
|01-09-12||Charlotte Bobcats +11 v. New York Knicks||87-91||Win||100||7 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing too good of value to pass up Monday as a double-digit underdog to the New York Knicks once again. New York was favored by 11.5 in their first meeting of the season with the Bobcats on 1/04, and they actually lost that game outright at home 118-110.
While the Knicks will want revenge, they should not be laying double-digits. New York is too inconsistent of a team to be laying double-digits against almost anyone. The Knicks have started 4-4, which includes a 1-2 home mark. They are clearly overrated in the eyes of oddsmakers and the betting public considering New York is just 2-6 ATS in all games this year.
This play falls into a system that is 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days.
The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. These four trends make for a 20-0 system backing Charlotte. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.
|01-08-12||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 194.5||78-98||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Blazers UNDER 194.5
I'm siding with the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers. Oddsmakers have inflated the number here. Portland is a strong defensive team that likes to play the half-court game. They will control the tempo at home tonight in a slowed-down contest.
The Cavs aren't an offensive juggernaut by any means, and they get after it defensively, too. Cleveland is scoring 97.1 points and allowing 93.3 points for an average combined score of 190.4 points/game. The Blazers are scoring 99.1 points and allowing 95.4 points for an average combined score of 194.5 points/game. Given both team's averages, you can see why there is some value with this UNDER tonight.
Cleveland is 34-17 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1996. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. These last three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-08-12||Arkansas State v. Northern Illinois +1.5||Top||20-38||Win||100||151 h 4 m||Show|
20* Arkansas State/NIU GoDaddy Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois +1.5
Northern Illinois and Arkansas State each won their conference titles in the MAC and Sun Belt, respectively. While both are coming in off these huge achievements, I believe NIU is the stronger team considering they played in the stronger conference. The MAC was the real deal this season, while the Sun Belt was certainly down.
I'll back NIU behind quarterback Chandler Harnish, who is one of the most underrated and under-appreciated players in college football. Harnish completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,942 yards with 26 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. While those passing numbers are impressive, his rushing numbers were even more mind-boggling. Harnish led the Huskies with 1,382 rushing yards and 11 scores this year.
Don't forget about running back Jasmin Hopkins, who rushed for 939 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Huskies are also loaded at receiver with a ton of speedsters that can turn a 1-yard catch into an 80-yard touchdown on any given play. This team is so explosive, and Arkansas State is going to have a hard time keeping up with them.
The Red Wolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Arkansas State is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. These last two trends make for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Huskies. Take Northern Illinois Sunday.
|01-08-12||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Denver Broncos +9||23-29||Win||100||65 h 34 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Broncos NFL Sunday BEST BET on Denver +9
The Denver Broncos are showing awesome value as a home underdog Sunday. Everyone is counting Tim Tebow and the Broncos out, and every time they do that, Tebow seems to respond. This is the perfect situation to back Tebow and the Broncos with a very inflated line Sunday.
The reason I believe this line is inflated is because the Steelers simply haven't been that good on the road. Sure, they are 5-3 away from home, but only one of those wins came by more than 7 points. Pitt was simply fortunate to escape with close victories away from home all season. If they win Sunday, it won't be by more than 7 points, either.
Pittsburgh is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Roll with the Broncos Sunday.
|01-08-12||Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants UNDER 47.5||Top||2-24||Win||100||61 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Giants UNDER 47.5
This game has defensive battle written all over it. Both defenses are hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs. The Falcons forced four turnovers and only allowed 294 total yards to the Bucs in their season finale. The Giants have allowed exactly 14 points in each of their last two games against the Jets and Cowboys.
Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 13-3 to the UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The UNDER is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. the UNDER is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-07-12||Utah Jazz v. Golden State Warriors -3||88-87||Loss||-110||17 h 51 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3
The Golden State Warriors are showing very good value Saturday as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Utah Jazz. All that you need to see is how poorly Utah has played on the road this season to know that this is a solid bet tonight.
Utah is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season. Not only are they losing away from home, they are getting absolutely slaughtered. The Jazz are scoring 86.7 points and giving up 105.7 points on the road, getting outscoring by an average of 19.0 points/game!
The Jazz are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Golden State is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games, while Utah is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Take the Warriors Saturday.
|01-07-12||Detroit Lions +11 v. New Orleans Saints||Top||28-45||Loss||-110||44 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +11
The Detroit Lions are fully capable of pulling off the upset over the New Orleans Saints Saturday provided they don't beat themselves. That's precisely what they did in their first meeting with the Saints in a game that was much closer than the 31-17 final score would indicate.
Detroit actually outgained New Orleans 466-438 in the Superdome on December 4th, but they simplpy beat themselves with untimely penalties. The Lions committed 11 penalties for 107 yards, while the Saints were only flagged three times for 30 yards. Matthew Stafford has his way with their defense, throwing for 408 yards in the loss.
I have all the confidence in the world that the Lions are going to be able to move the ball at will once again, and this time they won't shoot themselves in the foot. This is one of the most dangerous teams in the league heading into the playoffs with the potential to beat anyone if they just play their game and don't beat themselves.
This play falls into a system that is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
The Lions are 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Bet Detroit Saturday.
|01-07-12||Georgia State v. George Mason OVER 124||58-61||Loss||-110||13 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State/George Mason OVER 124
This one is about as easy as they come on the college hardwood. When you look at both team's season averages, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have missed their mark on this total set.
Georgia State scores 70.3 points/game and gives up 57.4 points/game for an average combined score of 127.7 points/game. Geore Mason scores 71.1 points/game and gives up 62.9 points/game for an average combined score of 134.0 points/game.
Given these averages, there's no way oddsmakers should have set this total less than 130. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-07-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -3||10-31||Win||100||41 h 35 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Texans NFL Saturday BEST BET on Houston -3
The Houston Texans are showing awesome value as just a 3-point home favorite Saturday. I did get this line in early, and I do recommend buying down to -3 just to be safe. I also want you to know that I still would take the Texans at -4 as well, which is the updated line, if you don't want to pay the extra juice to buy it down to -3.
Houston is getting no love from oddsmakers because they stumbled into the playoffs, but so did Cincinnati. The Texans didn't have a whole lot to play for down the stretch after clinching the division, so it's easy to see why they struggled a bit the last few weeks. I fully expect this team to kick it into overdrive and be ready come Saturday.
While the Texans are one of the most underrated teams coming into the playoffs, the Bengals are one of the most overrated. There's no way this team should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. Cincinnati breezed to a 6-2 start thanks to playing one of the easiest schedules in the league, but their true colors showed in the second half as they went just 3-5 the rest of the way.
Houston won their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road by a final of 20-19 on December 11th. The Texans clearly outplayed the Bengals in that game as they gained 412 total yards to Cincinnati's 285. Quarterback T.J. Yates, who will be starting for the Texans Sunday, threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Texans to victory that day.
The Texans are a perfect 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Houston is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bengals. These four trends make for a 18-0 system backing Houston. Roll with the Texans Saturday.
|01-07-12||SMU +4 v. Pittsburgh||28-6||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
15* SMU/Pittsburgh Compass Bowl ANNIHILATOR on SMU +4
The Pittsburgh Panthers should not be favored in the Compass Bowl Saturday. This is a program in transition, and their players have had a hard time staying focused in practices leading up to this game with all of the distractions.
While June Jones' name surfaced in the media about leaving SMU to coach elsewhere, he has elected to stay with the program. Meanwhile, Pitt coach Todd Graham has left to take the Arizona State job. Adding to the bitterness was Graham's decision to inform his players by text message that he was leaving after one year on the job.
Pitt just hasn't been the same team since leading rusher Ray Graham went out with a knee injury. Graham had rushed for 964 yards and nine touchdowns through their first eight games, so his loss was a big one. They have had to rely a lot more on quarterback Tino Sunseri, who just isn't capable of carrying their team. Take SMU Saturday.
|01-06-12||Kansas State +8.5 v. Arkansas||Top||16-29||Loss||-120||102 h 6 m||Show|
25* 2011-12 Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas State +8.5
Kansas State represents my strongest play for the entire 2011-12 bowl season Friday. This team has been underrated all year, and once again the Wildcats are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. This line has certainly been inflated.
The Wildcats were picked to finish eighth in the conference this season, but head coach Bill Snyder led them to their most wins since an 11-4 finish in 2003 and was the runaway pick for Big 12 coach of the year. K-State went 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in all game this season. Their 75% winning percentage against the spread just shows how underrated they have been all year.
Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein should have been a Heisman Trophy finalist with the numbers he put up this season. Klein led the team with 1,099 rushing yards and his 26 rushing touchdowns were the second-most in the FBS. He also threw for 1,745 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. John Hubert is a solid running back who rushed for 933 yards and three scores.
The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. These three trends make for a 17-1 system backing the Wildcats tonight. Bet Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.
|01-06-12||Valparaiso v. Detroit UNDER 150||73-71||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso/Detroit UNDER 150
Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in the Valparaiso vs. Detroit college basketball game. Just looking at the season averages between these teams, it's easy to see that this 150 number is too much.
Valparaiso averages 74.7 points/game while giving up 70.2 points/game for an average combined score of 144.9 points/game. Detroit averages 73.0 points/game while giving up 68.7 points/game for an average combined score of 141.7 points/game. I'll take my chances that this one stays UNDER the number given these averages.
This play falls into a system that is 50-16 (75.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DETROIT) - in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams (<=32%). Detroit shoots 26.9% from distance while Valpo shoots 31.8% from beyond the arc. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-06-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Charlotte Bobcats -1||102-96||Loss||-102||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -1
The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight. I'm going to side with the home favorite Charlotte Bobcats because of it. The Bobcats come in with a huge advantage in the rest department, and they are going to be giving better effort than the Hawks for four quarters.
Atlanta will be playing their 4th game in 5 days tonight. Not to mention they are coming off a three-overtime thriller against the Miami Heat last night, which they lost at home. This team will be deflated and their best effort won't be good enough as they'll be running on fumes after such a brutal stretch.
Charlotte comes in with confidence after putting an end to a four-game losing streak by beating the New York Knicks 118-110 on the road as an 11-point dog two nights ago. While that four-game losing streak is concerning, two of those games came against the Miami Heat while another was against Orlando.
The Bobcats are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Bobcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Hawks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings with Atlanta, including 9-2 (82%) ATS in their last 11 home meetings. Take the Bobcats Friday.
|01-05-12||Weber State v. Eastern Washington -2.5||76-69||Loss||-113||9 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Eastern Washington -2.5
Eastern Washington is a small-conference school that I've been following very closely all season. While they are just 7-7 this season, the Eagles have been very impressive considering the difficulty of their schedule.
Eastern Washington has played 10 road games compared to just 4 home games. Their opponent, Weber State, has played eight home games compared to 4 road games and one neutral site contest. Four of the Eagles' road games have come against Gonzaga, Oregon, UCLA and St. Mary's. They played all four teams tough, and nearly beat both Gonzaga and Oregon.
The Eagles are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents 84.0 to 61.2 or by an average of 22.8 points/game. Weber State is just 1-3 in true road games this year, getting outscored 68.2 to 82.5 or by an average of 14.3 points/game. Now you can kind of see why the Eagles are showing so much value at home tonight as a small favorite.
Weber State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Wildcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Weber State is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Sky. These three trends make for a 15-0 system backing the Eagles tonight. Bet Eastern Washington Thursday.
|01-05-12||Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 188.5||Top||116-109||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
20* Heat/Hawks NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 188.5
The Miami Heat have changed their philosophy this season, and I'm going to continue to ride their OVERS early because of it. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra visited Oregon football coach Chip Kelly to gather in as much information as he could this offseason. His goal was to learn about the pace and space philosophy, which he has installed in Miami.
The Heat are looking to fast break every chance they get to maximize the athleticism on this team, which is clearly the best in the NBA. They have been scoring at will in the early going. Miami is averaging 108.3 points/game this season while allowing 95.7 points/game, which is an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. That number is well above tonight's posted total.
Miami and Atlanta combined for 192 points in their first meeting. Atlanta won that game 100-92 as Miami wasn't able to execute their pace and space offense. Look for the Heat to execute a lot better tonight while also pushing the tempo more than they did in the first meeting.
The OVER is 12-4-1 in Miami's last 17 games as a favorite. The OVER is 11-5 in Miami's last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.