25* Celtics/Rockets NBA on ABC GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston +9 

The Boston Celtics came out of the All-Star Break on a mission.  They had lost their final three games prior to the break to fall into second place behind the Raptors in the East.  But they got a healthy Marcus Smart back in the lineup after the break, and he is starting to show his value to the team. 

The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their four games since the Break.  They won by 12 at Detroit, won by 9 at New York, won by 11 at home over Memphis and won by 28 at home over Charlotte.  Now they have had two days off to get ready for the Houston Rockets.  The Celtics are one of the few teams to have beaten the Rockets this season as they won their lone meeting at home. 

The Rockets are starting to be overvalued now due to their current 14-game winning streak.  No question they are playing well, but now they are being asked to lay a whopping 9 points to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Celtics.  Boston won’t go down without a fight here Saturday night.  The Celtics have only lost six times by double-digits all season.  This won’t be one of those times. 

Houston is 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Houston is 4-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 3-16 ATS after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Boston is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Houston.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Celtics Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 

After going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, I believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are now undervalued as just 4.5-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight.  Look for them to play with a sense of urgency and to get the win and cover to end this rough stretch. 

They get to face the Nuggets rested as they had yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning 108-102 in Memphis last night.  And this is a Nuggets team that has struggled on the road all season, going just 10-19 SU & 11-16-2 ATS on the highway. 

The Cavs have won their last two home meetings with the Nuggets by 16 and 33 points, respectively.  Denver is 12-26 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +9 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament.  They caught some bad breaks with injuries to their two best players in Bonzie Colson (20.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Matt Farrell (17.1 ppg, 5.4 apg).  Colson missed 15 games while Farrell missed 5 earlier this season, but both are back healthy. 

It has paid huge dividends as the Fighting Irish have stepped up big down the stretch and played up to their potential.  They are 3-1 in their last four games with their only loss coming to Miami by 3 points.  They went on the road and beat Boston College by 17 and Wake Forest by 5, while also crushing Pitt by 17 at home.  Now they’ll be motivated for a win over the No. 1 ranked team in the country in Virginia, which would almost certainly get them off the bubble and into the big dance. 

Virginia has nothing to play for right now.  The Cavaliers have already wrapped up the ACC regular season title and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens from here on out.  They were fortunate to beat Louisville 67-66 last time out on a banked 3-pointer at the buzzer.  I fully expect them to not show up today and for the Fighting Irish to give them a run for the money and stay within this lofty spread. 

Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games.  The Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their ranking.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -4.5 

It’s safe to say the Texas Tech Red Raiders will be highly motivated for a victory on Senior Day today.  They are coming off four consecutive losses with three of those coming on the road to Baylor, Oklahoma State and WVU, and the other a tough 2-point home loss to Big 12 champion Kansas.  Look for them to lay it all on the line today to get a win. 

TCU comes in overvalued due to its four-game winning streak both straight up and ATS.  But three of those four games came at home against Oklahoma State, Baylor and Kansas State, and their only road win came against the worst team in the Big 12 in Iowa State. 

Texas Tech is 16-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Kansas.  The Red Raiders are outscoring their opponents by 18.4 points per game at home this year.  The Horned Frogs are just 3-6 in true road games.  Texas Tech has three key players expected to play that have missed time with injuries prior in Keenan Evans, Zach Smith and Justin Gray.  That should give them a big boost at home today. 

TCU is 5-14 ATS in road games off a win over the last three seasons.  Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Take Texas Tech Saturday. 

15* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5 

Michigan will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days here.  The Wolverines were fortunate to get by Iowa in overtime in their Big Ten Tournament opener.  Then Nebraska couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean and shot just 30.2% against them in Game 2, while the Wolverines couldn’t miss from 3-point range.  I think they meet their match here in Michigan State. 

The Spartans are 28-3 this season and vying for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They will also be motivated to avenge one of their three losses this season, which came in upset fashion 72-82 at home to Michigan.  The Spartans are the fresher team here after receiving the double-bye and playing just one game up to this point.  They are also the more motivated team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites because of it. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Michigan State) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 113-63 (64.2%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday. 

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas State -1.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are showing excellent value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today.  They already beat Baylor 90-83 on the road this season and have their number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. 

Now the Wildcats should be able to handle the Bears at home.  Kansas State is 13-3 at home this season and winning by 11.3 points per game.  Baylor is just 2-8 SU in true road games, losing by 7.4 points per game on average. 

Kansas State will be motivated for a win on Senior Day here, and also to bounce back from two straight road losses to Oklahoma and TCU coming in.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

15* T’Wolves/Jazz ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 208 

Look for a defensive battle tonight on ESPN between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz.  Both teams are coming off a loss and both are dealing with some injuries right now.  The Timberwolves are without Jimmy Butler and could be without Taj Gibson (questionable), while the Jazz are without backup PG Raul Neto. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games.  They have combined with their opponents to average just 190.6 combined points per game over their last five contests.  They have come out of the All-Star Break playing tremendous defense, but their offense has managed just 94.2 points per game in their last five. 

I don’t expect the Timberwolves to be too efficient offensively tonight without Butler and possibly Gibson.  Making matters more difficult for them is the fact that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude after losing 99-108 in Portland last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank, and they won’t be looking to push the pace because of it. 

The Jazz and Timberwolves have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Utah is 10-2 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last four games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes played the previous day.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +13 

The Atlanta Hawks continue to battle.  They just upset Indiana 107-102 as 4-point home underdogs in their last game and are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  Now they have the defending champion Warriors coming to town and will certainly be up for this game Friday night. 

The Hawks have been able to play the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last four meetings were decided by 10 points or less.  Atlanta hasn’t lost any of its last four home meetings with the Warriors by more than 10 points. 

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. Western Conference foes.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six game splaying on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference teams.  Take the Hawks Friday. 

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska +4.5 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have made me more money than any other college basketball team this season. It’s because they have been the single-most underrated team in the country.  I’m not about to buck them now with what’s at stake in the Big Ten Tournament. 

According to Joe Lunardi, Nebraska is a ‘first four out’ team despite going 22-9 overall and 13-5 in Big Ten play to earn a double-bye and the 4th seed.  If that’s not disrespect, I don’t know what is.  So the Huskers will still be playing with a chip on their shoulder here just like they have been all season.  It has propelled them into going a mind-blowing 18-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall. 

Now they get to face a Michigan team that they already beat 72-52 at home in their lone meeting this season.  And it’s a Michigan team that will be playing the second consecutive day after beating Iowa 77-71 in overtime yesterday.  That’s a huge advantage for the Huskers, who will be rested while the Wolverines will be extra fatigued from having to go to OT. 

Nebraska is 9-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 10-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better after 15-plus games this season.  The Huskers are 13-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers after 15-plus games this year.  These three trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Huskers.  Bet Nebraska Friday. 

15* Stanford/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +10.5 

The Arizona Wildcats are a team I really want to fade right now.  I did so with success by fading them at Oregon last time out, and I’ll do so again tonight as they are way overvalued as 10.5-point home favorites over the Stanford Cardinal. 

The reason to fade the Wildcats is all the distractions surrounding head coach Sean Miller and the $100,000 payment that was made to star forward DeAndre Ayton (19.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg).  That’s a lot for a freshman to handle.  The Wildcats are also playing without their best scorer in Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg), who tested positive for a banned substance and has been ruled ineligible for now. 

Stanford has been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  The Cardinal are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS in conference play.  They will certainly be wanting revenge from a 71-73 home loss as 6-point underdogs to the Wildcats back on January 20th in their first meeting this season. 

Arizona is 1-7 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.  Stanford is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Arizona is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this year.  The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Arizona is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Wildcats are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Stanford Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly undervalued right now as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They hit a rough patch coming out of the break, which is why the betting public isn’t all over them.  But now it’s time to pounce at this price range as you’ll rarely find the Cavs as this small of a home favorite. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued right now due to their recent seven-game winning streak.  But six of those seven wins were at home with their only road win coming 116-115 as 7.5-point favorites at Chicago.  They have since lost two straight on the road to Washington (94-109) and Miami (101-102).  I faded them in both of those games with success, and I’ll do so again tonight as they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers. 

Cleveland simply owns Philadelphia.  The Cavs are 11-0 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers, including a 22-point road win and a 7-point home win in their two meetings this season.  The 76ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Thursday games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday. 

15* Virginia/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +4 

Louisville could really use a win over Virginia to get on the right side of the bubble.  The Cardinals are currently on the ‘last four in’ line according to Joe Lunardi, so they have no room to spare.  A win over the top team in the ACC would do them wonders tonight.   

Not only will they be motivated to punch their tickets to the big dance, they’ll also be motivated because it’s Senior Night and they want to send their seniors out with a memorable victory in their final home game.  The Cardinals also want revenge from a tough 64-74 loss at Virginia as 10.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  They played them tough four 40 minutes and will certainly do the same at home tonight. 

I really question Virginia’s motivation over these final two games of the regular season.  The Cavaliers already have the ACC title locked up with their 15-1 record.  Even if they were to lose their final two games, they would still be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament because everyone is talking about how they are the only sure thing to get a 1-seed.  I doubt they’ll be putting their best foot forward here. 

Louisville is 14-4 at home this season and winning by 12.6 points per game on average.  Three of their four home losses have come by 5 points or less, so they are really close to being 17-1 at home.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and it will certainly be a hostile crowd here on Senior Night with the No. 1 team in the country visiting the KFC Yum Center.  Take Louisville Thursday. 

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -3 

The Clemson Tigers have many reasons to be motivated for a win today at home against the Florida State Seminoles.  For starters, it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game.  Look for them to put forth a huge effort tonight to get the win and cover. 

Secondly, Clemson lost 79-81 at Florida State in overtime on February 14th exactly two weeks ago today.  So, they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  Also, the Tigers are looking to get a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.  They are currently tied for 4th place with NC State at 10-6, but they own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny.  Win out and they will get that double-bye. 

Clemson is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season.  The Tigers are winning by 14.9 points per game on average on their home floor.  Their only loss came to Duke.  Clemson is also 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Florida State. 

The Seminoles are not playing well at all right now.  They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion by 15 at Notre Dame and by 20 at NC State.  They are just 4-6 in true road games this season. 

It’s worth nothing that Shelton Mitchell (11.9 ppg, 3.8 apg) suffered a concussion against Florida State in their previous meeting.  He missed their next two games against Duke and VA Tech, and they went 0-3 in that three-game stretch without him.  But Mitchell returned to score 14 points against Georgia Tech last time out.  They are 21-4 with him fully healthy, and 0-3 when he doesn’t play the full game. 

Clemson is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Plays against road teams as a dog or PK (Florida State) in a game involving two good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game, after allowing 75 points or more in three straight games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Clemson Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +6.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates were getting dangerously close to the bubble with their four-game losing streak to start the month of February.  But this veteran squad has shown their resiliency, going 3-0 in their last three games with a home win over DePaul, and impressive upset road wins at Providence and at St. John’s. 

Now the Pirates are locked in and ready to give Villanova a run for its money tonight.  Seton Hall has gone 13-2 at home this season while winning by 12.6 points per game on average.  And now they get one of their best players in Desi Rodriquez (18.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg) back from an ankle injury just in time to face the Wildcats. 

Villanova has certainly proven vulnerable in recent games.  They are just 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were upset at home by St. John’s 75-79 as 16-point favorites, lost 71-76 at Providence as 9.5-point favorites, and lost 83-89 at Creighton as 7.5-point favorites.  There’s no question the Pirates are capable of upsetting them as well, let alone staying within this lofty 6.5-point spread. 

Seton Hall is 24-11 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Seton Hall.  Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

It’s safe to say the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, which I believe has them way undervalued right now as only 1.5-point favorites in this matchup. 

The Pistons still have a shot to make the playoffs at 28-32 on the season, just 3.5 games back of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.  But if they are going to make a run, it needs to start now.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing at home to the Wizards last night.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU In the last five meetings.  Detroit is 35-13 SU in its last 48 home meetings with Milwaukee. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +9.5 

I’ve been riding the Orlando Magic pretty hard here lately because they have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA since the calendar turned to 2018.  Indeed, they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They just got back two of their best players from injury after the All-Star Break in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic as well.  Now they are catching a whopping 9.5 points at home to the Toronto Raptors tonight. 

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are now having to lay prices that are going to make it very difficult for them to cover.  They are the No. 1 team in the East right now and the betting public has taken notice. 

The Magic have been able to figure out the Raptors.  They are 3-5 SU in the last eight meetings but 6-2 ATS in those eight games.  Only twice have they lost by double-digits during this stretch.  They have won two of the last three meetings outright as 5 and 11-point underdogs. 

The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Raptors.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -8.5

In typical John Calipari fashion at Kentucky, this team is getting better as the season moves along.  It’s easy to see why with the Wildcats.  They are always loaded with freshmen and it takes time for them to learn.  It is also a testament to how underrated a coach Calipari is. 

Indeed, the Wildcats have played some of their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while beating Alabama 81-71 as 4.5-point home favorites, Arkansas 87-72 as 5-point road dogs and Missouri 87-66 as 5-point home favorites. 

Kentucky is 22-4 against Ole Miss since 1997, including 10-1 in all home meetings during that stretch.  This Ole Miss team is a mess as Andy Kennedy stepped down as head coach a few weeks ago.  The Rebels have gone 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are clearly just ready for their season to be over. 

Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS in Wednesday games over the last two seasons.  The Rebels are 4-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games this year, getting outscored by 12.7 points per game.  The Rebels have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits.  Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rebels are 2-13 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take Kentucky Wednesday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Bonaventure -2 

St. Bonaventure is currently a bubble team to make the NCAA Tournament.  Win out and they are likely in.  They have put themselves in this position by winning 10 straight games to get to 22-6 on the season. 

Their last loss came on the road at Davidson 73-83 back on January 19th.  So they’ll be out for revenge in the rematch at home this time around.  They’ll also be motivated to win on Senior Night with this tremendous class of seniors.  Not to mention a berth in the big dance is likely at stake tonight. 

The Bonnies are 12-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game.  The Wildcats are just 7-9 in all road games this year.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight. 

Davidson doesn’t have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the conference tournament.  In a battle between two evenly matched teams, I’ll take the more motivated square at home tonight at an excellent value as only 2-point favorites.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat +1 

The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to going 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  But six of those seven wins came at home.  Their only road win came 116-115 as 7.5-point favorites at Chicago.  They also lost 94-109 at Washington last time out.  The 76ers are now just 13-17 SU & 13-17 ATS on the road this year. 

The Miami Heat are playing well right now but not getting the respect they deserve.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They did lost three games straight up, but all three losses came on the road by 3, 2 and 1 point.  They beat Milwaukee by 6 and Memphis by 26 at home. 

That 2-point loss was a 102-104 loss at Philadelphia on February 14th in their final game before the All-Star Break.  That places the Heat in revenge mode at home this time around.  In fact, they have actually lost two road meetings at Philadelphia in the month of February with the other coming by 6 points.  So they are playing with double-revenge. 

The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the 76ers while winning by a whopping 14.2 points per game on average.  Miami is a perfect 8-0 ATS revenging a close loss vs. opponent by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -1.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season.  There were little expectations coming in, but now sitting at 21-8 and 9-7 within the conference, they have played themselves into the ‘first four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi. 

Obviously, the Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a win over Tennessee that would likely get them in the tournament.  They will also be motivated for Senior Night as this is their final home game.  And boy have they been good at home, going 18-1 this season with their only loss coming to the best team in the SEC in Auburn. 

Tennessee has lost two of its last three road games with a 50-78 loss at Alabama and a 62-73 loss at Georgia.  The Vols’ only win came 73-65 at Ole Miss, a team that has basically quit since Andy Kennedy resigned.  The Vols are safely in the tournament and don’t need this win nearly as much as the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State is 13-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Mississippi State Tuesday. 

15* T’Wolves/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +5.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been playing some real competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 106-111 road loss at Minnesota as 13-point underdogs on February 11th.  Now they will be looking for revenge at home this time around on the Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves suffered a big blow when Jimmy Butler recently sustained a sprained knee.  He is now going to miss an indefinite amount of time, and there’s no question they are going to miss his leadership, defense and scoring.  They will be vulnerable moving forward. 

The Timberwolves can’t be 5.5-point road favorites without Butler here.  They are just 12-19 SU & 13-16-2 ATS on the road this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. 

Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Minnesota is 18-46 ATS in its last 64 games after scoring 120 points or more in its previous game.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days’ rest.  Roll with the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive hangover spot here.  They are coming off a road loss to the defending champion Golden State Warriors where tempers were high.  They had won their previous two meetings with the Warriors this season.  Now they’ll have a hard time getting back up to face the Orlando Magic at home tonight and covering this lofty 10-point spread. 

The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in 2018.  They have gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  In fact, they have lost by double-digits only twice in their last 18 games, making for a 16-2 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread. 

The Magic have been competitive despite the injuries.  And now they are getting healthy and will be a tough out the rest of the way for any team.  Both Aaron Gordon (18.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and Nikola Vucevic (17.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg) returned from injury after the All-Star Break, and now that both have a few games under their belts they should have shaken the rust off by now. 

The Magic have been a thorn in OKC’s side.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Thunder.  They have only lost by double-digit to the Thunder once in the last 10 meetings.  Dating back further, the Thunder have only beaten the Magic by double-digits three times in the last 27 meetings, making for a 24-3 system backing Orlando.   

The Thunder are 0-10 ATS when revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite this season.  The Magic beat them 121-108 as 5.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Magic Monday. 

15* Duke/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +6 

The Virginia Tech Hokies are currently among the ‘last four byes’ according to Joe Lunardi.  They are clearly a bubble team and could really use a signature win here of Duke to punch their ticket to the big dance.  That’s especially the case with a tough road game at Miami coming in their season finale Saturday. 

So it’s clear the Hokies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for their NCAA Tournament chances.  They will also be motivated because it’s Senior Day and these seniors have really helped turn around this program under Buzz Williams.  They also want to avenge a 52-74 loss at Duke in their first meeting this season. 

I certainly think the Blue Devils are starting to be overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they could be looking ahead to their huge showdown Saturday with their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home.  Plus they are dealing with the distractions of being named in the FBI probe. 

Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The Hokies are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including an 89-75 upset win over Duke at home last year for the Hokies.  Take Virginia Tech Monday. 

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Washington -1.5

The Washington Wizards have actually been better without John Wall.  They have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma City, Toronto, Indiana and Cleveland during this stretch as well.  They have been consistently undervalued without Wall, and they are actually sharing the basketball better and playing more as a team without him. 

Philadelphia comes into this game way overvalued after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  But six of those seven games were at home, and they escaped with a 116-115 win at Chicago as 7.5-point favorites in their only road game during this stretch. 

The 76ers are just 13-16 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this year as they’ve done all their damage at home.  And now they are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge recently in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wizards tonight.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska PK 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been grossly undervalued all season.  So it’s no surprise that they are once again a pick ‘em at home against Penn State today when they should be laying 5-6 points.  We’ll take advantage and back them on Senior Day in what is a huge game for them to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Despite going 21-9 this season and 12-5 in Big Ten play, which has them in fourth place, the Huskers are actually one of the first teams out according to Joe Lunardi.  He still thinks they have work to do, and they should be motivated by it. 

The Huskers have gone a ridiculous 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have been an extremely tough at out home, going 15-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this year with their only loss coming to Kansas by a single point 72-73.  What more does this team have to do to earn some respect? 

Nebraska is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Penn State.  The Huskers will also be motivated for revenge from a 74-76 loss at Penn State on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  Nebraska is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning % from 60% to 80% this season.  Bet Nebraska Sunday. 

15* Michigan State/Wisconsin CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +8 

The Michigan State Spartans need a win Sunday to avoid sharing the Big Ten title with Purdue and Ohio State.  But that is clearly priced into the line as they are whopping 8-point road favorites at Wisconsin.  I think the value is with the home underdog Badgers because they aren’t going to make it easy for the Spartans. 

Wisconsin comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games with upset road wins at Illinois (78-69) and Northwestern (70-64), as well as home wins over Purdue (57-53) as 11-point dogs and Minnesota (73-63). 

The Badgers would love nothing more than to spoil Michigan State’s Big Ten title hopes, and they’ll also be motivated for Senior Day.  They want revenge from a 61-76 loss at Michigan State as 17-point underdogs in their first meeting this season as well. 

Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons.  It is actually winning these games by 15.7 points per game on average.  Roll with Wisconsin Sunday. 

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2 

The Arizona Wildcats are in a tough spot here.  They were already without leading scorer Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg) due to testing positive for a banned substance recently.  Now it came out on Friday that Sean Miller was caught talking a $100,000 payment to star freshman Deandre Ayton.  He is surely to lose his job, and sanctions will come down.  This is a huge distraction for the Wildcats right now. 

Meanwhile, Oregon is locked in and focused.  The Ducks currently sit at 18-10 on the season and are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament.  They picked up a huge win against Arizona State on Thursday at home, and now another win over Arizona would go a long way in getting them into the tournament. 

With the way the Ducks are playing at home of late, they should have no problem covering this small 2-point spread.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington, a 27-point win over Washington State and a 7-point win over Arizona State.  Arizona needed overtime to beat Oregon State on the road Thursday, and now they will be tired on top of the distractions. 

Oregon is 12-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Ducks are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 Pac-12 games.  The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oregon Saturday. 

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco -3.5 

This is an awful spot for the San Diego Toreros.  They just gave Gonzaga all they could handle in a 72-77 home loss.  Now they will clearly suffer a hangover after falling just short against the WCC champs.  They won’t bring the kind of effort it’s going to take to match San Francisco’s intensity Saturday. 

Meanwhile, the Dons want revenge from a 63-73 loss at San Diego in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for San Francisco in this series as they had won their previous four meetings all by 6 points or more.  This is also Senior Night for San Francisco, adding to their motivation. 

The Dons come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming 73-75 as 9.5-point underdogs at BYU.  That includes a 70-63 home upset of St. Mary’s as 9-point underdogs. 

San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in Saturday games this season.  The Dons are 8-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days this season.  The Toreros are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  Roll with San Francisco Saturday. 

15* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -2 

The Florida Gators are dangerously playing their way onto the bubble.  They have done so by losing three straight by a combined 11 points coming in.  Now they are desperate for a signature win over the team with the best record in the SEC in Auburn.  I fully expect a big effort from the Gators at home here Saturday to save their season. 

Auburn has been hit hard by the injury bug here of late.  First it was Anferneed McLemore (7.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to go down with a season-ending ankle injury on February 17th.  Now it’s second-leading scorer Mustapha Heron (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) who is dealing with the flu and is highly questionable to suit up for this one.  The Tigers are clearly more vulnerable right now than they have been all season. 

Florida simply owns Auburn, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings, and 23-3 SU in the last 26 meetings.  The Gators are 11-0 SU in their last 11 home meetings with the Tigers.  Florida is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  Roll with Florida Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -16 

The Iowa State Cyclones are an absolute mess right now.  They are without three of their best players in Donovan Jackson (15.4 ppg), Nick Weiler-Babb (13.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Solomon Young (7.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  That leaves them extremely short-handed heading into this game with West Virginia. 

That makes this a terrible matchup for the Cyclones against WVU’s press.  The Cyclones only played seven players against TCU on Wednesday.  They even had Jackson for that game, but he has decided to take some extra time off to mourn the loss of his father.  Iowa State will wear down quickly in this one and will be begging for mercy by halftime. 

West Virginia will have no mercy considering they lost to Iowa State 77-93 on the road in the first meeting. Now the Cyclones have to hit the road, where they have been atrocious.  Indeed, the Cyclones are 0-8 & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season, losing by a whopping 14.0 points per game on average.  And they were healthy for almost all of those games, which isn’t the case now. 

Iowa State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after playing five consecutive games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Mountaineers are 12-3 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game on average.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5 

This is the ultimate ‘get right’ spot for the Oklahoma Sooners.  They have lost six straight games coming in and are now back to being undervalued after being overvalued for the majority of conference season following their hot start in non-conference play. 

This 0-6 stretch is understandable considering the Sooners have played four of their last six games on the road with home losses to WVU by 2 and Texas by 11.  Now they face a team they can handle in Kansas State, and they are certainly going to want some revenge after losing to the Wildcats in Manhattan in their first meeting this season. 

The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season and scoring 93.2 points per game.  The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  They are clearly overvalued right now.  Look for a huge effort from the home team tonight.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +10 

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past month-plus.  They have gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  And now they are getting healthy as both Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic returned from injury since the All-Star Break. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are way overvalued right now due their currently six-game winning streak.  They needed a last-second shot to beat the Bulls 116-115 as 7.5-point road favorites in their first game back from the game. 

Now the 76ers are being asked to lay double-digits against a pesky Magic team that has only lost by double-digits once in their last 17 games overall.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Magic pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Plus, the Magic are 19-8 ATS as a dog of 10 points or more over the last three seasons. 

The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Magic Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -2.5 

The Utah Utes are the hottest team in the Pac-12 right now.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to get to 18-9 on the season and play themselves into the bubble discussion of the NCAA Tournament.  They are currently one of the first few teams out according to Joe Lunardi, and a win over USC tonight would really help their cause. 

Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Utes are 12-2 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.9 points per game.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Pac-12 home games, beating Washington by 8, Washington State by 13, Stanford by 15, California by 34 and UCLA by 6. 

USC is extremely vulnerable right now since losing stud forward Bennie Boatwright on January 16th to a season-ending knee injury.  Boatright averages 13.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game.  He is irreplaceable on this team.  The Trojans are only 5-5 in true road games this season, and they will have a hard time winning in a hostile atmosphere here Saturday without one of their leaders. 

Utah is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the past two years.  Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with USC, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Salt Lake City.  Take Utah Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +3.5 

The Spurs are much healthier coming out of the All-Star Break than they were going into it.  They were playing without both LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay prior to the break, but both are expected to be back now.  Manu Ginobli is also probable.  That leaves Kawhi Leonard as the only player they are missing, and they are good enough to win without him with everyone else at full strength. 

I think the Spurs come out of the break extra motivated because they lost to the Nuggets 109-117 as 7-point road underdogs without both Aldridge and Gay.  With those two back, they should get their revenge here as 3.5-point underdogs and win this game outright. 

I think the Nuggets come out of the break a little overvalued because they were hot going into the break.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Now they are actually favorites against a mostly healthy Spurs team, when in the past they would never be favored over San Antonio.  If anything, the break could only have hurt their momentum. 

The Spurs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 meetings with the Nuggets.  San Antonio is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 trips to Denver.  The Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA.  They are 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Seven of their last nine wins have come by 9 points or more, so they are not only winning they are dominating. 

The thing is that 11-0 run has only gotten the Jazz to 10th place in the Western Conference at 30-28.  They are still 1.5 games behind the Pelicans for the 8th seed, and 2.0 games behind the Blazers for the 7th spot.  That means they still have a lot of work to still, so they should come out of the break still motivated, especially hosting a team they are trailing in the Blazers tonight. 

The Jazz have owned the Blazers this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them while winning by 9 at home and by 19 on the road.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. 

The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Jazz Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -2 

The Boston Celtics lost their lead in the Eastern Conference by losing four of their final five games before the break, including their last three in a row.  It’s safe to say they will come out of the break extra motivated because of it and looking to take out their frustrations on the Pistons. 

Detroit hasn’t exactly been tearing it up since trading for Blake Griffin.  In fact, the Pistons are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have failed to cover the spread in five straight and have lost outright as favorites in three of their last four games coming in. 

The Celtics have owned the Pistons.  They have won five of the last seven meetings, including a 91-81 road win as 1-point favorites in their last meeting this season.  Now the Celtics have Marcus Smart back for the first time in weeks, and they clearly have missed him with their struggles prior to the break. 

The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pistons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Celtics are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Roll with the Celtics Friday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon -3 

At 17-10 on the season and 7-7 in Pac-12 play, the Oregon Ducks are clearly on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  At 19-7 overall and with a strong non-conference record with several wins against quality teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils are safely in the big dance right now.  It’s clear which team needs this win more. 

I expect Oregon to come out like gangbusters tonight to try and get a win at home.  They Ducks have been very good at home of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington and a 27-point win over Washington State. 

Arizona is in a massive hangover spot after losing to Arizona last time out, getting swept in the season series by their biggest rivals.  Now they have no shot of winning the Pac-12 after that defeat.  And Oregon owns Arizona State, going 7-0 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ducks are also 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Sun Devils. 

Oregon is 11-2 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Arizona State is 3-13 ATS in road gams when revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  The Ducks beat the Sun Devils 76-72 as 7.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 11th.  The Sun Devils are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Oregon Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacific -2 

The Pacific Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 WCC Games.  They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. 

Now Pacific is going to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight against San Francisco.  It’s Senior Night for the Tigers, and they also want revenge from a tough 67-69 road loss at San Francisco in their first meeting back on January 25th. 

The Dons are starting to get too much respect now off back-to-back wins over St. Mary’s and Loyola-Marymount.  They caught St. Mary’s in a big letdown spot off a loss to Gonzaga.  I think the motivation and home court edge makes the Tigers a great play tonight. 

The Dons are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 0-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Take Pacific Thursday. 

20* Wizards/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a new outlook now since making the trade.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since trading for George Hill, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Clarkson. They are winning these four games by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

Most impressively, they have beaten both Boston and Oklahoma City on the road, as well as Minnesota at home during this stretch.  And they didn’t have those four players in uniform for the first two games.  And now with the All-Star Break, it has only given these guys more time to practice and get used to one another both on and off the court.  The Cavaliers are primed for a huge second half run now. 

The Washington Wizards remain without their star and leader in John Wall for another few weeks due to a knee injury.  They aren’t capable of beating a team the caliber of these current Cavaliers without him, especially on the road in a hostile atmosphere. 

The Cavaliers have owned the Wizards, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half against opponent that scored 115 points or more last game are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Cavaliers Thursday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +5.5 

The Iowa State Cyclones will be playing inspired basketball tonight.  They will be trying to win this game for star point guard Donavan Jackson, who lost his father on Saturday night.  Jackson has decided to play in this game with a heavy heart, and his teammates will certainly rally around him. 

The crowd should be rocking for Jackson and company tonight.  The Cyclones continue to have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that has been on display of late.  Iowa State is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 home games, which includes outright upsets over Baylor (75-65), Texas Tech (70-52), West Virginia (93-77) and Oklahoma (88-80). 

TCU has not played very well on the road here in Big 12 play, either.  The Horned Frogs are just 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  With that track record, they should not be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers as 5.5-point road favorites over the Cyclones. 

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better over the last three seasons.  TCU is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two years.  The Horned Frogs are 1-8 ATS off a Big 12 home win over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS off two more more consecutive losses over the last three years.  TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Iowa State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday. 

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4 

The Virginia Tech Hokies are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Now they get a chance at a signature win tonight over No. 15 Clemson at home.  I look for them to take advantage and win this game in blowout fashion. 

The Hokies are playing some great basketball here down the stretch in going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes a road wins over both Notre Dame and Virginia as they have played five of those eight games on the road.  They also beat both UNC and NC State at home and are 12-3 at home this year. 

Clemson is vulnerable right now, and that has shown with back-to-back losses to Florida State and Duke.  They were already without one of their best players in Donte Grantham (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), but now they’ll also be without fourth-leading scorer and top assist man Shelton Mitchell (11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg) tonight due to a concussion. 

The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hokies are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Virginia Tech is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Clemson, including 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5 

At 19-10 on the season, the Penn State Nittany Lions are good enough to be an NCAA Tournament team.  But they find themselves squarely on the bubble right now and in need of a big win.  That opportunity comes tonight as they host No. 17 Michigan. 

The Nittany Lions are 14-3 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game on average.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only two losses both came on the road to the two best teams in the Big Ten in Michigan State (68-76) as 14.5-point dogs and Purdue (73-76) as 9-point dogs.  Those two efforts proved they could play with anyone.  They also beat Ohio State 79-56 at home. 

Michigan hasn’t exactly fared well on the road recently.  The Wolverines are just 1-3 in their last four road games with their lone win coming at lowly Wisconsin.  They lost 52-61 at Northwestern, 88-92 at Purdue and 52-72 at Nebraska.  Now they have to face a hostile environment here on Senior Night at Penn State.  These seniors have done a lot for this program, and they want to end their careers with an NCAA Tournament berth.  A win here would go a long way in accomplishing that goal. 

Penn State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  Michigan is 10-19 ATS off a home win over the last two years.  The Nittany Lions are 11-3 ATS in home games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Take Penn State Wednesday. 

15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats lost four in a row for the first time in the John Calipari era recently.  They are now undervalued due to that tough stretch that features road losses at Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn and a home loss to Tennessee. 

But that tough stretch will have prepared these young Wildcats for the stretch run.  They responded well with an 81-71 win over Alabama over the weekend.  Now they hit the road to take on an Arkansas team that I think is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now. 

The Razorbacks have won four in a row and seven of their last nine games overall.  You’re now starting to have to pay a point spread tax on Arkansas due to this run.  But I don’t believe this is one of the better teams in the SEC.  I expect Kentucky to be able to handle them tonight. 

Kentucky owns Arkansas, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning those five by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Now we are getting the Wildcats as substantial underdogs here tonight. Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler -5.5 

The Butler Bulldogs will be out for revenge from an 85-74 road loss at Creighton in their first meeting back on January 9th.  Well the Bluejays have lost one of their best players in Martin Krampelj since then to injury, and they simply aren’t as good. 

That has shown as the Bluejays have gone just 4-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in lined games.  They just lost at home to Marquette last time out as 6-point favorites and have dropped three of their last four Big East games.  They are ripe for the picking right now. 

Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 13-3 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off an impressive 69-54 home victory over Providence as 8.5-point favorites.  Butler is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.   

Creighton is 4-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last three years.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Butler) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 85 or more points, off a home win by 10 points or more are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Butler Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -6.5 

Off back-to-back road losses at Missouri and Arkansas, the Texas A&M Aggies come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament due to their 6-8 conference record.  They need a big finish here and will be motivated to get in the big dance. 

I think this is a great time to fade Mississippi State, which is coming off a 79-62 home win over rival Ole Miss.  But the Bulldogs haven’t been very good on the road this season, going just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in true road games.  Texas A&M is 12-2 at home this year and winning by 13.2 points per game. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, beating Kentucky by 11, South Carolina by 23, Arkansas by 14 and Missouri by 11.  Mississippi State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  Texas A&M is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday. 

25* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma/Kansas UNDER 166.5 

The books have set the bar too high in this game between Oklahoma and Kansas tonight.  With what’s at stake, the defensive intensity should be at an all-time high.  Kansas is trying to win the Big 12 again, while Oklahoma is trying to stop the bleeding and pick up a signature win to help them get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Kansas is 8-3 to the UNDER in its last 11 games overall.  In fact, each of the last 12 games Kansas has played have seen 165 or fewer combined points.  With this total sitting at 166.5, that makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER. 

Oklahoma has also been on an UNDER run.  The Sooners are 8-4-1 to the UNDER in their last 13 games overall.  They have seen 166 or fewer combined points in 10 of their last 13 games.  I just think the value is clearly with the UNDER tonight given these numbers. 

Kansas is a perfect 10-0 to the UNDER off a home win this season.  Teams have figured out how to stop Trae Young as the Sooners have gone 0-5 in their last five games overall, and they haven’t scored more than 80 points in any of those five contests.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Penn State/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -8.5 

The Purdue Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  After opening 12-0 in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers have shockingly lost three straight to lose their stranglehold on the conference title.  Look for them to put forth their biggest effort of the season tonight to get back on track. 

Penn State comes in overvalued due to its four-game winning streak.  But three of those four games were at home with their only road win coming at Illinois, which is the worst team in the Big Ten. 

Purdue is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Penn State.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Penn State) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent that’s off an upset loss as a road favorite are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Purdue Sunday. 

15* Houston/Temple AAC ANNIHILATOR on Temple +3

The Houston Cougars are in a massive letdown spot today.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 67-62 upset home win over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats were previously unbeaten in AAC play. 

While the Cougars are 13-0 at home, they have been vulnerable on the road at 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS in all road games.  Now they’re up against a feisty Temple team that will be hungry for revenge from a 73-76 road loss at Houston in their first meeting this season. 

Temple is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Owls are 7-2 SU in their last nine games with their only losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and at Wichita State. 

The Owls are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Sunday. 

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Louisville -1 

The Louisville Cardinals have done a tremendous job of focusing this season amidst the Rick Pitino scandal.  They currently are 18-8 and one of the better teams in the ACC with an 8-5 record. 

I think the Cardinals are primed to ‘upset’ the ranked UNC Tar Heels at home today.  Louisville is 14-3 at home while outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. 

The Cardinals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Louisville is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after two straight games where they allowed 37% shooting or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons.  Take Louisville Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest -1 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing well right now.  They have recent home wins over both Florida State and Georgia Tech, and their last three losses were all competitive as they lost by 8 at home to Clemson, by 6 at Miami and by 8 at Syracuse. 

Home-court advantage means a ton when NC State and Wake Forest get together.  In fact, the home team is 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The home team is also 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.   

NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following an ATS win. NC State is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston College +1 

The Boston College Eagles are actually on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament with a 16-10 record on the season.  They need a big push here at the end and can get to .500 in ACC play with a win Saturday.   

It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory to avenge an 85-96 loss at Notre Dame in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  But now the Eagles get them at home, where they are 13-2 this season with wins over the likes of Duke, Florida State and Miami.  Their only two home losses came by a combined 9 points with one coming in overtime. 

The Fighting Irish have struggled ever since losing Bonzie Colson to an injury.  They are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  I think they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as road favorites over the Eagles. 

Boston College is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU -1.5 

The Missouri Tigers are getting too much love right now due to their five-game winning streak.  Well, all five wins have come by single-digits, so they have been fortunate in close games.  And they are primed for a letdown off a 62-58 home win over Texas A&M last time out. 

LSU has been one of the more underrated teams in the SEC, especially when they play at home.  They are 10-4 at home this season.  They have have three straight impressive home wins over Texas A&M (77-65), Arkansas (94-86) and Ole Miss (82-66). 

Missouri is 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  LSU is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three home meetings with Missouri.  Take LSU Saturday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +14.5 

This is a terrible spot for Boise State.  The Broncos are coming off a 72-77 home loss to Nevada.  Now with two losses to Nevada this season, they aren’t going to win the Mountain West, which was their goal.  They are clearly in a hangover spot here today. 

Plus, Air Force is going to be out for revenge from a hard-fought 64-70 home loss to Boise State as 8.5-point underdogs on January 27th.  Now the Falcons are catching 14.5 points in the rematch, which is more than enough for them to cover. 

The Falcons have been grossly undervalued in Mountain West play this season as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Boise State is 1-10 ATS in February games over the past two seasons.  Air Force is 7-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Roll with Air Force Saturday. 

20* Rhode Island/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams are 13-0 in Atlantic 10 play and already have the conference title wrapped up.  I can’t help but think they are going to relax here down the stretch, and they are clearly overvalued right now. 

St. Bonaventure is the second-best team in the Atlantic 10 in my opinion.  They are the only team capable of beating Rhode Island, and they’re at home tonight in what will be a hostile atmosphere against a ranked foe. 

St. Bonaventure is 19-6 on the season, including 10-1 in home games where they’re winning by 16.0 points per game.  The Bonnies come in playing their best basketball of the season having won seven straight. 

The Rams suffered a big blow when second-leading scorer E.C. Matthews was forced to leave last game with an injury.  He is very questionable to play tonight.  Matthews averages 12.9 points per game on the season and is a veteran leader on this team. 

Rhode Island is 1-11 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +1.5 

The Washington Huskies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have managed to go 17-8 and are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. 

Off two consecutive road losses, I look for the Huskies to come out highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  The Huskies have handled their business at home this season with a 13-2 mark at home.  They will be out for revenge from a 62-70 loss at Utah in their first meeting this season. 

Utah is coming off back-to-back home victories and is getting too much respect from the books now.  The Utes have gone just 1-4 in their last five Pac-12 road games with three of those losses coming by double-digits. 

Utah is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 37% or less shooting in two consecutive games coming in.  The Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Take Washington Thursday. 

15* Nuggets/Bucks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee -2.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 9-2 since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd.  The most noticeable difference has been on the defensive end, where the Bucks have locked down their opponents.  They are giving up just 95.9 points per game in their last 11 games. 

The Denver Nuggets come into this game getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers after winning five of their last six games.  But four of those wins came at home, and it has been a different story for them on the road this year. 

The Nuggets are just 8-19 on the road this season.  They had lost seven straight road games before finally ending that skid with a 123-113 win in Phoenix in their last road game.  But the Suns are playing as poorly as any team in the NBA right now having lost 12 of their last 13 with 10 of those losses coming by double-digits. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight games, with a winning record on the season are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bucks Thursday. 

20* Cincinnati/Houston AAC No-Brainer on Houston +3 

The Cincinnati Bearcats basically have the AAC locked up with a 12-0 record and a three-game lead over Houston.  So they can afford to relax tonight and lose their first conference game and it’s really not going to hurt them.  I think Houston will be the more motivated team here tonight. 

Houston is a team that is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, and a win over Cincinnati would likely help push them in.  They are 19-5 this season and a perfect 12-0 at home, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.5 points per game on their home floor. 

Houston actually led Cincinnati by 18 on the road in their first meeting this season, but the Bearcats came storming back and won 80-70.  That clearly places the Cougars in revenge mode tonight, and that game clearly showed they could play with the Bearcats. 

The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. Houston is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Bearcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Houston Thursday. 

20* Warriors/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5.5 

The Golden State Warriors recently got their wake-up call losing three of four games and two straight for the first time all season.  They have since responded by going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 18, 17 and 46 points.  Now they want to cap it off with another big performance against the Blazers in their final game before the All-Star Break. 

The Blazers have been too inconsistent to compete with a team like Golden State.  The Blazers have lost four of their last six games with three of those losses coming by 19 or more points.  One of their wins was an home overtime victory over the Hornets, while the other was a road win at hapless Sacramento. 

The Warriors have won 11 straight meetings with the Blazers.  Nine of those 11 wins have come by 6 points or more, which is all it’s going to take to cover this generous 5.5-point spread.  Plus, Portland stud big man Jusuf Nurkic (calf, back, oblique) is questionable to play tonight, while the Warriors are basically fully healthy, especially among the big four. 

Plays on road favorites (Golden State) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent against a team that is off a home loss by 10 points or more are 52-18 (74.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Golden State is 37-18 ATS in the last 55 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Portland.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -12 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA right now.  They are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are scoring 112 points per game and giving up just 97.1 points per game during this winning streak, outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game.  That’s why I’m not afraid to lay 12 points with them here Wednesday against Phoenix. 

It also helps that the Suns are the coldest team in the NBA right now.  Phoenix has lost six straight and is just 1-11 in its last 12 contests.  Not only are they losing, they are getting crushed as nine of those 11 losses have come by double-digits.  One of those losses was a 97-129 home loss to these Utah Jazz on February 2nd less than two weeks ago. 

The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Suns, winning those six games by an average of 19.5 points per game.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -3 

The Southern Illinois Salukis need to be more than 3-point home favorites tonight over Missouri State.  The Salukis have been the second-best team in the MVC this season with a 17-10 overall record and a 9-5 mark in conference play.  They are only two games back of Loyola-Chicago and certainly want to hold on to the No. 2 seed. 

The Salukis have taken care of their home court this season.  They are 12-2 in home games with an average victory of 10.9 points per game.  They are 6-1 at home in MVC play.  They already beat Missouri State 79-77 on the road in their first meeting this season.  That is nothing new in this series as the Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Missouri State is getting way too much respect fro back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Evansville.  But the Bears were just 2-7 SU & 0-9 ATS in their nine games prior.  This team simply isn’t very good this season and is no match for Southern Illinois tonight. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Missouri State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Salukis are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU +3 

Wrong team favored here.  The VCU Rams should not be home underdogs to the Davidson Wildcats.  These are two evenly-matched teams in the Atlantic 10 with Davidson at 8-4 and VCU at 7-5.  But the home-court advantage and the motivation for the Rams to catch the Wildcats in the standings makes VCU the right side tonight. 

VCU has gone 11-4 SU & &-4 ATS at home this season.  Three of those four losses came to ranked Virginia and Rhode Island teams, as well as Texas.  The only upset loss was to Richmond, and Richmond also beat Davidson on the road earlier this season. 

Davidson is just 4-7 in true road games this season.  The four wins have come against terrible teams in Charlotte as a 9-point favorite, George Mason as a 6-point favorite, Fordham as an 8-point favorite and George Washington as a 7-point favorite.  The Wildcats also suffered upset road losses at Appalachian State, Hawaii and Richmond. 

VCU is 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are winning by 16.8 points per game in this spot.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Take VCU Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State -4 

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against Clemson. They have lost two straight and three of their last four and need a signature win against a ranked team here to stay on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Two of those three losses came on the road, while the other was a 55-59 home loss to top-ranked Virginia in which the Seminoles blew a double-digit lead.  Look for them to be able to handle Clemson tonight and improve upon their impressive 10-2 home record where they are winning by 15.6 points per game on average. 

The Tigers are overvalued right now due to their four-game winning streak.  But they have feasted on weak competition with their four wins coming against Pitt, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and UNC (at home).  Prior to this winning streak, they had lost each of their previous three road games in ACC play.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games overall. 

Florida State is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons, winning by 19.5 points per game in this spot.  Clemson is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are losing by 16.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet Florida State Wednesday. 

15* Virginia/Miami ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Miami +6 

After reaching No. 1 in the poll for the first time in 36 years, the Virginia Cavaliers are sure to relax a little.  They already started that with their upset loss to Virginia Tech as 12-point home favorites over the weekend.  But because they are No. 1, they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers as 6-point road favorites at Miami tonight. 

Miami is in need of a signature win that will help its case for the NCAA Tournament.  There’s no question the Hurricanes will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight hosting the top-ranked team in the country.  I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season. 

Miami has been an extremely tough out at home this year.  The Hurricanes are 9-1 at home while winning by 15.2 points per game on average.  Their only home loss came to Duke after they blew a double-digit second half lead.  Miami is 6-1 straight up in its last seven home meetings with Virginia with its only loss coming in overtime.  Roll with Miami Tuesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Richmond +16 

I’ve been riding the Richmond Spiders hard of late because they are so undervalued due to their 9-15 record.  They are much better than that record would indicate, and each of their last seven losses have come by 9 points or less, so they’ve simply had poor luck in close games. 

Richmond has gotten on track in conference play here of late.  The Spiders are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five outright upsets.  They went on the road and beat VCU 67-52 as 8.5-point underdogs and also topped Davidson 66-63 as 11-point dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 16 points from Rhode Island tonight. 

Sure, Rhode Island is the best team in the Atlantic 10, but I can’t help but think the Rams are primed for a letdown tonight.  That’s because they are 12-0 in the conference and have a whopping four-game lead over second place (8-4).  They can afford to relax a little here down the stretch with such a big lead in the conference. 

Richmond is 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Spiders are 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 85 points or more over the last two years.  Richmond is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Spiders tonight.  Bet Richmond Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Raptors UNDER 206.5 

Defense has certainly won out in recent meetings between the Heat and Raptors.  I’m absolutely shocked the books have set this number so high tonight when you look at the scores from those recent meetings and compare them to this 206.5-point total. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  They have combined for 179, 190, 185, 193 and 183 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That’s an average of just 186.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight’s posted total of 206.5.   

Dating back further, the Heat and Raptors have combined for 205 or fewer points in each of their last 12 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 206.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat +8 

The Miami Heat have had three days off since last playing on Friday in a 91-85 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks.  It’s safe to say they’ll be fresh and ready to go heading into their final two games before the All-Star Break.  That should lead to a big performance from them tonight. 

I think the Raptors are being overvalued right now after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It has come mostly against a soft schedule with four of the five games at home.  They’ll get more than they bargained for from the Heat tonight. 

Miami has certainly had a knack for playing the Raptors tough of late.  They are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  They only lost by 2 as 4.5-point road underdogs in their final meeting last season, and they upset the Raptors 90-89 as 4-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting thus far this season on January 9th.  Now they are getting a whopping 8 points just a month later. 

The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Miami is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Heat are 13-2 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-29 ATS when revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the Heat Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +1 

What more do the Nebraska Cornhuskers have to do to get some respect?  Apparently it doesn’t matter what they do because they’re undervalued game in and game out.  And I believe that to be the case once again as they are shockingly home underdogs to Maryland tonight. 

Nebraska has gone 12-3 SU in its last 15 games overall.  The only losses were a 5-point loss at Ohio State as 12-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Penn State as 7.5-point dogs and a 12-point loss at Purdue as 21-point dogs.  More impressively, the Huskers are a ridiculous 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games.  Nebraska has certainly handled its business at home with a 13-1 SU & 10-2 ATS record this season. 

Maryland is clearly down this season.  The Terrapins are just 3-6 in their last nine games overall with all three victories coming at home.  Maryland is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only victory coming against lonely Illinois (92-91) by a single point. 

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season.  The Huskers are 9-0 ATS off a conference win this season.  Nebraska is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 Big Ten contests.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4 

The Utah Jazz are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  The Jazz pushed their winning streak to nine with a 115-96 win over Portland Sunday night.  They are now .500 for the first time since early December and just 1.5 games behind the Pelicans for 8th place in the Western Conference.  They are focused and wanting to keep this winning streak going heading into the All-Star Break in a few days. 

Extending the streak to 10 shouldn’t be a problem tonight because few teams have been attacked by the injury bug as viciously as San Antonio this season.  The Spurs will face the Jazz without several key players in the lineup.  Kawhi Leonard and Rudy Gay have been out for a while, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray both missed last game and remain questionable tonight, and LaMarcus Aldridge (22.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg) will sit out with a sore knee tonight. 

Not even Greg Popovich has been able to work magic with this team due to all of these injuries.  The Spurs are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games, losing all three times by 9 points or more.  That includes a 111-120 home loss to the Jazz as 6.5-point favorites on February 3rd.  It was the 3rd straight victory in the series for Utah with the previous two coming at home.  I give the Spurs zero chance of even being competitive on the road this time around. 

The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  These four trends combined for a 27-1 system backing Utah tonight.  Take the Jazz Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 

I think the Los Angeles Clippers are going to be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have so many good players that not too many people know about, which keeps them under the radar.  They have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall and they added some nice pieces before the deadline. 

Certainly losing Blake Griffin hurts, but they got back some nice pieces for him in 3-and-D Avery Bradley and elite scorer Tobias Harris.  Other unsung heroes like Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers and Montrezl Harrell have all taken their games to the next level this season.  This is a deep team that has 10 players averaging at least 8.5 points per game. 

The Nets are in free-fall mode right now and just looking forward to the All-Star Break in a few days.  They are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  They have some key injuries to two of their best players right now that are getting overlooked.  Both Rondae Holllis-Jefferson (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Caris LeVert (11.6 ppg, 4.1 apg) are out right now.  And D’Angelo Russell just seems to be a cancer as they have struggled since he returned.  He hijacks the offense too often with his woeful 29% 3-point shooting. 

The Clippers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Los Angeles is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 road games.  The Clippers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Clippers Monday. 

15* Notre Dame/UNC ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10.5 

The UNC Tar Heels are in a massive letdown spot tonight at home against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over Duke and NC State by a combined 11 points.  Those are their two biggest rivals, and it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after two such big wins. 

I also like the fact that Notre Dame is grossly undervalued right now.  The Fighting Irish had lost seven straight while going 1-6 ATS before the return of star PG Matt Farrell.  But they have turned it around since his return from injury, winning their last two in blowout fashion over Boston College (96-85) and Florida State (84-69). 

Now the Fighting Irish will be highly motivated for revenge from a 69-68 home loss to North Carolina as 5-point underdogs back on January 13th, which was the second game of their seven-game skid.  And it’s worth noting that both Bonzie Colson and Farrell sat out that game due to injury.  Well, now Farrell (16.5 ppg, 5.2 apg) is back and he makes all the difference for this team running the show at point guard. 

North Carolina is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Tar Heels.  Roll with Notre Dame Monday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +14 

Mike Dunleavy has done a great job of turning around this Tulane program already.  He has the Green Wave sitting at 13-10 on the season, and one of their wins was an 81-72 upset home win over this same Houston team that they will be facing today. 

Tulane leading scorer Melvin Frazier missed the team’s last game with a chest injury, but they played well in an 89-91 loss at Tulsa as 6.5-point underdogs.  Frazier is questionable to return today.  I’m not too concerned if he does or not because this is a deep Green Wave team that boasts five players scoring in double figures this season. 

I think Houston is getting too much love from oddsmakers tonight due to its 11-0 home record.  Well, the Cougars were trailing late against SMU at home last time out and were fortunate to win 67-58.  That was an SMU team playing without its two best players, too. 

Houston is 1-12 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the past two seasons.  It is actually losing to these teams by 7.6 points per game on average.  The Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Tulane Sunday. 

20* Raptors/Hornets NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -3.5 

The Toronto Raptors are rolling right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their four wins coming by an average of 21.3 points per game.  Now they are only favored by 3.5 against a Charlotte Hornets team they should handle. 

The Hornets are coming off a four-game road trip in which they went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.  Now they will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  I always like fading teams in that first home game following an extended road trip because it’s a tough spot for them.  They have things to deal with at home when they get back that are distractions. 

The Raptors have won both meetings with he Hornets in blowout fashion this season.  They won 126-113 at home and 129-111 on the road.  The Hornets simply aren’t good enough to hang with a team the caliber of Toronto, which may be the best team in the East this season. 

Charlotte is 2-11 ATS as a home underdog over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Sunday. 

25* Gonzaga/St. Mary’s WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Mary’s -1.5 

The reputation Gonzaga has built up from years past has the Bulldogs massively overrated this season.  That has been especially the case of late as Gonzaga is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Now the Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from the books as only 1.5-point underdogs at St. Mary’s. 

It’s clear to me that St. Mary’s is simply the better team this season.  The Gaels are 24-2 and already went on the road and beat Gonzaga 74-71 as 7.5-point underdogs in their first meeting.  Now the Gaels will cap off the season sweep in front of a rowdy home crowd tonight.  The Gaels are 14-0 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game on average.  Bet St. Mary’s Saturday. 

20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Golden State -10.5 

I think we are getting the Warriors at a bargain as only 10.5-point favorites at home tonight over the Spurs.  That’s because the Warriors have had their wake-up call in losing three of their last five games coming in.  Now they should be fully focused against the Spurs tonight. 

The Spurs have gone just 9-9 in their last 18 games overall.  They are an average team right now due to all of their injuries.  They are playing without Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray right now.  They simply don’t have much talent or depth left. 

Golden State beat San Antonio 112-92 on the road in their only meeting this season.  Plays against any team (San Antonio) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 52-19 (73.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Warriors Saturday.  

15* Kentucky/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5 

It has been a tale of two seasons for Texas A&M.  The Aggies have been virtually unbeatable when they’ve been healthy, and they couldn’t win when they had players banged up.  Well, they’re back to being healthy and it’s starting to show on the court. 

The Aggies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Arkansas by 14 and South Carolina by 23 at home, while also upsetting Auburn as 6-point road underdogs.  Now their mission will be to get revenge from a 73-74 loss at Kentucky back when they weren’t healthy in their first meeting this season. 

This is as vulnerable as I remember Kentucky ever being under John Calipari.  The Wildcats are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost by 9 at Missouri and by 8 at South Carolina in two recent road games, two teams that aren’t nearly as good as Texas A&M. 

Kentucky is 0-6 ATS after a game with 9 or fewer assets over the past two seasons.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Dobut Rout on Saint Louis -3.5 

The Saint Louis Billikens have been grossly undervalued over the last few weeks.  They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 SU in their last seven games with one of their losses coming by a single point to VCU.  I think the fact that they are coming off a 23-point loss at St. Bonaventure has them undervalued tonight. 

Saint Louis should be able to handle a 10-14 LaSalle squad that has been overvalued for over a month.  In fact, the Explorers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are just 2-12 SU in games played away from home this season. 

Saint Louis is a perfect 13-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  La Salle is 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Explorers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Billikens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers have quietly gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games, winning by an average of 15.1 points per game.  They are not only winning, they are dominating. 

The 76ers beat the Pelicans 100-82 at home last night.  That makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off before yesterday so they are fresher than most teams on a back-to-back.  And Joel Embiid has recently been cleared to play the 2nd of back-to-backs, and he is expected to play tonight. 

The Clippers are also in a back-to-back situation after winning in Detroit last night.  The difference is they actually have to travel to Philadelphia, while the 76ers get to stay at home.  Given their recent home success, I think we are getting the 76ers at a huge discount as only 2.5-point favorites. 

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The 76ers are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Philadelphia is 56-25-2 ATS in its last 83 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the 76ers Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +12 

The Virginia Cavaliers cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  After going 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in conference play to this point, the Cavaliers have the attention of the betting public.  Now they are laying a whopping 12 points today to Virginia Tech. 

I think we see Virginia relax a little here down the stretch because they basically already have the ACC title wrapped up.  And they already beat VA Tech 78-52 on the road earlier this season, so they probably think they just have to show up to win. 

But that won’t be the case as VA Tech is a pesky bunch that will fight you for 40 minutes under Buzz Williams.  And the Hokies have really gotten it going of late with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in run in their last five games overall.  That includes blowout home wins over UNC (by 11) and NC State (by 10), as well all road wins at Notre Dame and Boston College. 

The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven after three straight games where both teams scored 75 or more points.  VA Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5 

This is a terrible spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 64-63 road win at No. 3 Purdue on Wednesday.  That win tied them for first place in the Big Ten with the Boilermakers.  It is only human nature for them to suffer a letdown tonight off such a massive victory. 

Iowa has been playing much better of late, going 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Hawkeyes just took Michigan State to the wire and actually had an 8-point lead late in that game, but lost 93-96 as 10-point underdogs.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face another ranked foe in Ohio State tonight. 

Ohio State is 4-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three season.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  Ohio State is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Nebraska, Penn State and Illinois have all played Ohio State to close games on the road recently, and the Hawkeyes can do just that too.  Bet Iowa Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +2.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide need a signature win here to improve their tournament resume.  They have that chance against a ranked Tennessee opponent that is primed for a letdown following its upset road win at Kentucky earlier this week. 

Alabama has beaten some very good teams at home this season.  The Crimson Tide pulled upsets over both Auburn and Oklahoma, and they also beat the likes of Texas A&M at home.  They are 10-2 at home this season. 

Alabama is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Alabama is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings.  Roll with Alabama Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Richmond +10.5 

Richmond is grossly undervalued right now due to its 9-14 record.  But the Spiders are much better than that as they have simply had bad luck in close games.  Each of their last six losses have come by 8 points or less. 

But the Spiders have got on track in conference play here of late.  They are now 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with five outright upsets.  They went on the road and beat VCU 67-52 as 8.5-point dogs and Davidson 66-63 as 11-point dogs.  They should not be catching 10.5 points today against St. Bonaventure. 

Richmond is 8-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 1-8 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Richmond Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -1.5 

In the midst of a season-high five-game losing streak, it’s safe to say the Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight over the Milwaukee Bucks.  It has been more bad luck in close games than anything as all five losses came by 8 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer. 

Look for the Heat to get back in the win column tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks team they have owned of late.  The Heat are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bucks, winning by an average of 13.3 points per game. 

I think the Bucks are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have played an extremely soft schedule during this stretch with six of those eight games against teams with losing records.  The Bucks still have issues at point guard as starter Malcolm Brogdon and backup Matthew Dellavedova both remain out. 

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The Bucks are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  That has especially been the case of late.  The 76ers are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games, winning by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

Now the 76ers get to host a struggling New Orleans Pelicans team that just lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury.  The Pelicans have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their five games since Cousins went down, losing those four games by an average of 13.8 points per game. 

Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The 76ers are 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Philadelphia is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

20* Clippers/Pistons ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Detroit -3 

The Detroit Pistons have been re-energized since trading for Blake Griffin.  The Pistons have gone 5-0 since trading for him, and he’s averaging 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists since joining Detroit. 

When Los Angeles signed Griffin to a five-year, $171 million contract in July, it was understood that he would be a ‘Clipper for Life’.  But Doc Rivers and the front office bailed on him, and you can bet that he is going to want to exact some revenge on his former team here tonight. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after going over the total by 48 or more total points in their last 10 games, when playing on Friday nights are 38-17 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pistons are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. Western Conference foes, including 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The home team is 5-1-1- ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 

Off there straight road losses, the Portland Trail Blazers returned home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.  They played three road games in four days and lost all three.  But now they have had two days off since last playing on Monday and will be fresh and ready to go. 

The Blazers have been dominant at home for over a month now.  The Blazers are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games overall.  Each of their last five home victories have come by 7 points or more.  Look of them to get back on track at home tonight. 

The Hornets are just 8-16 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The Blazers are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Hornets, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings. 

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. Western Conference teams.  Charlotte is 6-15 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hornets are 12-27 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  Charlotte is 1-14 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +13 

The Pacific Tigers have been money-making machines this season, especially in conference play.  Pacific has gone 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers as 13-point home underdogs to Gonzaga tonight. 

Conversely, Gonzaga continues to get way too much respect from oddsmakers based on what they’ve done in years’ past.  But this Bulldogs team isn’t nearly as good as previous years.  That has shown here of late as the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

I can’t help but think Gonzaga is going to be looking ahead to a huge showdown with St. Mary’s on Saturday.  The Bulldogs want revenge from a 71-74 home loss to the Gaels.  They know that game will likely decide the conference, and they won’t be paying as much attention to Pacific tonight as they should be. 

Pacific is 11-1 ATS off a conference game this season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus good rebounding teams out rebounding their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Pacific Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -8.5 

The Houston Cougars are a legit NCAA Tournament team this season.  They have gone 17-5 on the year, and most of their damage has been done at home.  They are 10-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 21.7 points per game.  They throttled Wichita State 73-59 at home a few weeks back. 

SMU is having a down season at 15-8.  But the Mustangs have really struggled of late, going 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost their last two road games by 11 at Connecticut and by 9 at Tulsa, two teams that aren’t nearly as strong as Houston. 

The biggest reason for the Mustangs’ struggles has been injuries.  It all started when Jarrey Foster (13.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg), their second-leading scorer, was lost for the season with a torn ACL in late January.  But now their best player in Shake Milton (18.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg) suffered a hand injury last time out that will force him out of action for the foreseeable future. 

The Mustangs are 1-7 ATS in their last six road games.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS int heir last six home games.  Houston is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  SMU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Houston Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Richmond +2 

The Richmond Spiders are just 8-14 on the season and grossly underrated because of that record.  They are more like a 14-8 team, but they’ve had terrible luck in close games.  In fact, each of their last six losses have come by 8 points or less. 

We’ve seen what Richmond has been capable here of late.  The Spiders are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes a 67-52 win at VCU as 8.5-point dogs and a 66-63 win at Davidson as 11-point dogs. 

The only game Richmond lost during this stretch came last time out in an upset home loss to George Mason by a final of 75-79 as 7-point favorites.  However, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder De’Monte Buckingham (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.4 apg) was suspended for that game.  Well, Buckingham returns tonight and should provide a huge lift to the team. 

VCU is down big-time this season compared to years’ past.  But the Rams get the reputation that they’re still one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 when that simply isn’t the case.  They are just 14-9 this season and tied with Richmond in the conference standings at 6-4.  And with Richmond already beating VCU by 15 on the road, there’s no way the Spiders should be home underdogs in the rematch. 

VCU is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 Wednesday games.  Richmond is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 Wednesday games.  The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with Richmond Wednesday. 

20* T’Wolves/Cavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are completely broken.  They are now just 7-14 SU & 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They are coming off a 98-116 loss at lowly Orlando last night, so now they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back. 

It’s not like the Cavs have even been competitive in some of these losses.  In fact, each of their last six losses have come by double-digits.  And now without Kevin Love for 6-8 weeks due to a broken hand, it’s not going to get better any time soon for the Cavaliers.  Lebron James is at a loss for words every night, and this team just isn’t together at all. 

Conversely, Minnesota is living up to the massive expectations they had coming into the season with the additions of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are fully healthy right now and have put together a 34-22 record on the season.  And the Timberwolves come in fresh and ready to go as they last played on Saturday, giving them three full days off to prepare for Cleveland. 

Minnesota beat Cleveland 127-99 at home in their first meeting this season on January 8th.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more over the past three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 5-24 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -8 

The Florida Gators come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to Georgia and Alabama.  They have responded well following losses this year, and they are certainly much better than they’ve shown over these past two games. 

Now the Gators have a great chance to get back in the win column in blowout fashion against LSU tonight.  The Tigers are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven’t even been competitive in their last two road games, losing by 23 at Tennessee and by 25 at Auburn. 

LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  The Tigers are 11-26 ATS off a win over the last three years.  Florida is 78-48 ATS in its last 126 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  LSU is 3-14 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Take Florida Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -1 

The Ole Miss Rebels have been extremely tough at home this season, especially in SEC play.  They are 10-4 at home this year.  But they are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, winning and covering against the likes of Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina.   

Their only home loss during this stretch came to Auburn by a final of 70-79, which is the best team in the SEC.  Off three consecutive losses, it’s safe to say the Rebels will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Missouri Tigers. 

Off back-to-back wins over Alabama and Kentucky, I believe Missouri comes into this game overvalued.  The Tigers are just 3-4 in true road games this season.  They have recent double-digits road losses to the likes of Mississippi State and Texas A&M. 

It’s safe to say that Ole Miss owns Missouri.  In fact, the Rebels are 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Missouri.  Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Rebels are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss overall.  Missouri is 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Ole Miss is 13-1 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2 

I love this spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They are coming off a bad loss to the Atlanta Hawks in which they blew a 5-point lead late.  That has them undervalued coming into this game tonight, while the Bucks are overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall. 

It’s also a revenge spot for the Knicks.  They just lost 90-92 in Milwaukee a few days ago on Friday, and now they get a chance for revenge at home this time around.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks. 

Milwaukee is dealing with all kinds of injuries right now.  Malcolm Brogdon remains out with a knee injury, Mathew Dellavedove is out tonight with an ankle injury, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to play tonight despite leaving their last game with a foot injury.  He’ll be far from 100% for this one. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 points or more in their previous game are 55-27 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Knicks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be looking to make a statement tonight.  They are in second place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Boston Celtics by 2 games for the top spot.  Now they get to host the Celtics and will be highly motivated for a victory because of it. 

The Celtics have managed to go 3-0 without Kyrie Irving.  But all three of those wins came at home, and they were against the Knicks, Hawks and Blazers.  They needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Blazers.  Irving is still questionable to return tonight.  And they are still without Marcus Smart, and Marcus Morris is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Raptors are fully healthy and dominating.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall with three of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  Toronto is a sensational 21-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points per game on average. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boston, winning all four by 6 points or more.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +1.5 

The Northwestern Wildcats have gotten it together here of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  Now I look for them to handle their business as home underdogs to Michigan tonight. 

The lone loss during this stretch for the Wildcats came at Michigan on January 29th just a week ago by a final of 47-58.  The Wildcats lost the turnover battle 16-5 in that game, so that was the difference.  Look for them to take much better care of the ball at home tonight and to be highly motivated for revenge on the Wolverines. 

Michigan is 9-18 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  Northwestern is 14-5 ATS after covering two of its last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 10-3 at home this season and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Tuesday.

20* Xavier/Butler Big East No-Brainer on Butler -3.5 

The Butler Bulldogs are absolutely rolling right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning the four by 12, 25, 20 and 23 points.  Now they will be playing at home tonight, where they have one of the best advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this year. 

Butler will be highly motivated for a victory here to avenge a 79-86 road loss to Xavier back on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think Butler has improved significantly since that loss and will be ready for the challenge tonight.  After all, Butler did beat Villanova at home, handing the Wildcats their only loss this season. 

Xavier comes in overvalued due to winning six straight and being ranked No. 5 in the country.  But their wins have not come easy.  In fact, nine of Xavier’s last 12 wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply had good fortune in close games, but I think their luck will run out tonight. 

Butler is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games off a win this season.  Plays on home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Butler) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Butler Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5 

The Detroit Pistons are re-engergized with the trade for Blake Griffin.  They are 3-0 since trading for him and at 25-26, can get back to .500 with a win tonight.  Look for them to keep rolling at home tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

The Blazers will be lacking energy tonight.  That’s because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  And they’re likely to suffer a hangover from their buzzer-beating 96-97 loss at Boston yesterday. 

The Pistons have certainly had the Blazers’ number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They have won their last two home meetings with the Blazers by 7 and 20 points.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit. 

Portland is 1-9 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-18 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Detroit is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5.  The Pistons are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pistons Monday. 

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5 

Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level.  Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses.  I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs. 

The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings. 

The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries.  They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive.  And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall. 

The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch.  The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game.  They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game. 

Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well.  Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday. 

20* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England Money Line -180 

The New England Patriots have a huge edge in experience in this game.  That will benefit them greatly.  The Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls since 2002, winning five of them thus far.  I think they will grab their 6th victory over the inexperienced Eagles here. 

Nick Foles had a big game against the Vikings, but it’s worth noting that he got to play at home in both playoff games.  He was comfortable, but now he will be outside his comfort zone here on a neutral in the biggest game of his life. 

The Vikings game was the aberration.  The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

Now the Eagles will be up against a Patriots defense that is playing lights out.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  It’s very difficult for a backup quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and I simply trust Brady exponentially more than Foles in this huge spot. 

I don’t bet a lot of money lines, but there are certain spots to do so.  The Super Bowl is one of them.  You get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl than you would in a regular season game. That’s because there is so much money line action on the underdog that the oddsmakers are forced to lower the price of the favorite.  So we are getting the Patriots at -180 here when they would normally be -200 or more if this was a regular season game in the -4.5 favorite range. 

Plays on favorites vs. the money line (New England) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers are 26-4 (86.7%, +20.4 units) since 1983. 

New England is 12-1 (+10.7 units) against the money line vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Belichick is 28-0 against the money line (+35.2 units) after covering the spread in 8 or more of the last 10 games as the coach of New England.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line in the Super Bowl. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -5 

The New York Knicks are showing great value as only 5-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks today.  The Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory today after back-to-back road losses at Boston and Milwaukee coming in. 

But now the Knicks return home, where they are 16-9 SU & 16-9 ATS on the season.  The Hawks own the worst road record in the NBA this season at 4-21.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Knicks have to be more than 5-point favorites here. 

The Knicks are 12-3 ATS in home games off two more more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* Seton Hall/Villanova Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +12.5 

The Villanova Wildcats have a huge target on their backs right now because they are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that will be tough to live up to. 

There’s no way Villanova should be a 12.5-point favorite today against a Seton Hall team that is among the best in the Big East at 17-5 this season.  The Pirates are coming off back-to-back blowout victories by 16 at DePaul and by 16 at home over Providence, and now they’re ready to give the Wildcats a run for their money. 

This is a Seton Hall team that is absolutely loaded due to returning its four best players from last season.  That team only lost 55-53 to Villanova in the Big East Tournament as 11.5-point underdogs.  All four starters that returned are averaging at least 13 points per game in Desi Rodriquez (17.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg), Myles Powell (14.5 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (14.2 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Angel Delgado (13.2 ppg, 12.1 rpg). 

Seton Hall is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games when playing against a team that has won more than 80% of its games after 15-plus games.  The Pirates are 22-9 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Villanova is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games.  Roll with Seton Hall Sunday.