25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +2.5 

The Maryland Terrapins have a big edge in rest and preparation tonight.  They have had five days’ rest since last playing on Wednesday, while the Purdue Boilermakers only have two days’ rest after playing on Saturday. 

The Terrapins also have the edge in motivation tonight.  They will want to avenge their 60-62 road loss to Purdue in their first meeting this season.  The Terrapins are 12-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Virginia & Seton Hall. They should be able to get their revenge tonight given the favorable spot for them.

Purdue is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  Two of those wins came in overtime at Penn State and at Wisconsin.  They lost by 19 at Michigan and lost by 18 at Michigan State, while also losing at Florida State and Texas. 

I certainly think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Purdue, which has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  That’s the only reason the Boilermakers are favored here, but they shouldn’t be.  The Terrapins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Boilermakers.  Bet Maryland Tuesday.

20* Kansas/TCU ESPN No-Brainer on TCU -2.5 

This is finally the year where teams in the Big 12 are taking their turns beating a rare vulnerable Kansas team.  Now it is TCU’s turn tonight.  The Horned Frogs should be bigger home favorites over the Jayhawks, but the name ‘Kansas’ still gets respect from the betting public that it shouldn’t this season. 

Kansas is just 1-6 SU & 0-6-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Jayhawks lost at Arizona State, at Iowa State, at WVU, at Kentucky, at Texas and at Kansas State.  It was bad enough that they lost Udoka Azubuike (13.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) to a season-ending injury at the start of Big 12 play, but now star G Legerald Vick (14.1 PPG, 46% 3-pointers) has taken a leave of absence, and Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG) remains out. 

TCU is feeling good after picking up one of the most impressive wins in the Big 12 this season with its 92-83 win at Iowa State as 9.5-point dogs over the weekend.  The Horned Frogs now want revenge from a 68-77 loss at Kansas on January 9th.  And they should get it at home this time around, where they are 11-1 SU this season. 

TCU is 9-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 13.9 points per game on average in this spot.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  TCU is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet TCU Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +12 

Because the Milwaukee Bucks are 41-14 SU & 32-21-2 ATS this season and have the best record in the Eastern Conference, they are starting to warrant a lot of respect from the betting public.  When that happens, these teams become overvalued, and I think that’s the case for the Bucks right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bucks, who are now being asked to go on the road and lay a whopping 12 points to the Chicago Bulls.  This is a Bulls team that is not obviously tanking like some of these other teams with bad records.  In fact, they probably have the most talent of any of the perceived tanking teams. 

In their last five games alone, the Bulls have gone o the road and pulled off some impressive blowout upset victories.  They went into Miami and won by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and they won at Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they just added more talent before the trade deadline by snagging Otto Porter Jr. from the Washington Wizards.  I now like this lineup of Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez quite a bit. 

Chicago only lost 113-116 as 15-point road dogs in its last meeting with the Bucks in Milwaukee.  The Bucks are 26-50 ATS in their last 76 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - who score more than 102 PPG against an opponent that gives up more than 102 PPG, after scoring 90 points or less are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +5.5 

I believe the Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers, who are missing Victor Oladipo and have managed to play well without him of late, but it won’t continue for much longer. 

The Charlotte Hornets are battling to get into the playoffs at 28-29 this season.  They have played some of their best basketball of the season of late, going 8-5 SU & 7-5-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And they come in fresh and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  Charlotte has two days off after this, so it will be 100% zoned in and focused on beating Indiana tonight. 

Indiana is a tired team right now as it will be playing its 8th game in 13 days.  Plus, the Pacers could easily be looking ahead to their huge showdown with Milwaukee at home on Wednesday.  And both Myles Turner and Doug McDermott are questionable to play tonight for the Pacers. 

The Pacers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five gams after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Cougars have the nation’s longest home winning streak at 31 games.  For a team with this kind of streak going, this is a pretty short number for the Cougars to be laying at home today against Cincinnati.  They’ll be highly motivated with the AAC regular season title basically on the line here as both teams enter 9-1 in conference play. 

But I think there’s a big difference between these teams.  Houston is 9-1 in conference play and outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game, while Cincinnati is only outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game during its 9-1 start to the conference season. 

Cincinnati has simply been fortunate in close games this season, especially of late.  The Bearcats’ last three wins have all come by 5 points or less, and they’ve now won six straight games that were decided by 8 points or fewer since losing 71-73 to ECU as 17.5-point favorites.  They will meet their match tonight in Houston, the best team in the AAC. 

Houston is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Cougars are 8-0 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  They play their best against the best teams.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home today.  Roll with Houston Sunday. 

20* Lakers/76ers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7 

Once again, LeBron James and the Lakers are big road underdogs to one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.  We saw how that worked out on Thursday as the Lakers pulled the upset at 9.5-point road dogs at Boston.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are a team in transition right now after just making the trade for Tobias Harris.  While it was a good trade and will work out for them in the long run, it’s going to take some time to implement him into their scheme.  There’s only one ball to go around, and it will be an interesting dynamic for a while with four guys who like to have the ball in their hands in Simmons, Butler, Emdiid and now Harris.  Plus, Embiid could sit today with an illness. 

The Lakers want to avenge their 105-121 home loss to the 76ers as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th less than two weeks ago.  But neither LeBron nor Kyle Kuzma played in that game.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Philadelphia.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers today.  This despite the fact that they’ve been one of the best home teams in the league, going 19-8 SU & 19-8 ATS at home this season.  Not to mention, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

Portland is just 10-13 SU & 10-13 ATS on the road this season.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late.  The home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  Dallas won 111-102 as 2-point favorites and 115-109 as 7-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Portland. 

Dallas is 11-2 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The Mavericks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Portland and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -2.5 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from a 65-60 road loss to Indiana State as 3.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 5th.  I think they’ll have their revenge with an easy win and cover as only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

Bradley comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Braves are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  They went on the road and upset Southern Illinois as 7-point dogs, blew out Illinois State by 17 as 1-point home dogs, won by 8 at Evansville as 2.5-point dogs and won at Northern Iowa by 8 as 5-point dogs.  That’s four upset wins in their last six games in which they’ve been a dog in all six.  This team is clearly undervalued right now. 

Indiana State is not playing well at all.  The Sycamores are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Both of their wins came at home against Valpo and Evansville.  They also lost at home to Drake and Loyola-Chicago, and are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 15 at Southern Illinois, by 14 at Illinois Stat and by 5 at Northern Iowa, which are three teams that Bradley has already beaten this season. 

Bradley is 8-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Indiana State is 5-15 ATS in all games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years.  The Braves are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -11.5 

The New York Knicks are more blatantly tanking than any other team in the NBA.  They just suffered their 15th straight loss last night in a 103-120 setback at Detroit.  They has just lost to the Pistons the game before, so you’d think they would show some pride.  Nope.  Now the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with a short-handed roster. 

The Knicks have also lost 23 of their past 24 and 28 of their past 30 to fall to an NBA-worst 10-44.  Not to mention, New York has lost 15 straight home games.  They haven’t even been competitive lately as each of their last five losses have come by 12 points or more.  And that’s all it would take for the Raptors to cover tonight. 

Toronto is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with an 18-point home win over the Clippers, a 12-point road win at the 76ers and an 18-point road win at the Hawks.  Look for them to make easy work of the tanking Knicks tonight. 

Toronto is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Knicks with all five wins coming by 13 points or more and by an average of a whopping 20.6 points per game.  The Raptors are 14-4 ATS in road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raptors Saturday. 

15* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia -2 

Virginia is 20-1 this season with its only loss coming 70-72 at Duke on January 19th.  Now, it’s time for the Cavaliers to revenge their only loss this season at home this time around.  I think we are getting great value on the Cavaliers as only 2-point home favorites in the rematch. 

Virginia is 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  Duke’s four ACC road games have come against Wake Forest, FSU, Pitt and Notre Dame, basically the bottom of the barrel.  And the only decent team they faced on the road was FSU, and they needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Seminoles 80-78. 

Virginia is 10-1 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS off a home non-cover where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 27.7 points per game in this spot.  Virginia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cavaliers are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +1 

By losing three straight and five of their last seven overall, the Oklahoma Sooners have fallen to 15-8 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament.  They need a signature win, and today is a great chance to get one against a Top 25 opponent in Texas Tech. 

The Sooners suffered a heartbreaking 74-75 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  But Texas Tech isn’t as good as Iowa State, so this is a much more winnable game for them.  It’s also a revenge game after losing 59-66 at Texas Tech as 7-point dogs in a game they led the entire way until the closing minutes.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at home today. 

Oklahoma is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  Texas Tech has had some very ugly road losses recently in Big 12 play.  Indeed, the Red Raiders are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Big 12 road games.  They lost by 11 at Baylor as 4-point favorites, by 13 at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs and by 16 at Kansas as 4.5-point dogs. 

Oklahoma is 17-4 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Texas Tech.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won seven straight meetings and is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Sooners are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Marquette -1.5 

Marquette is coming off its first home loss of the season in a tough 69-70 setback to St. John’s.  No question St. John’s is a quality team, but I think it was more Marquette overlooking them and looking ahead to this huge showdown with Villanova than anything.  And I think the Golden Eagles are getting undervalued now after that defeat. 

The Golden Eagles are still 14-1 at home this season.  And now they’ll get back on track against a Villanova team that it’s time to ’sell high’ on.  The Wildcats are 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are overvalued due to this winning streak and from winning the national title last year.  They haven’t beaten very many quality teams during this streak as their four road games have come against Providence, Creighton, Butler and DePaul during it. 

Marquette gets an extra day to prepare for Villanova after last playing on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, Villanova needed overtime to beat Creighton 66-59 at home on Wednesday.  Now the Wildcats only have two days’ rest and are coming off an OT game obviously.  It’s just a great situation for the Golden Eagles on extra rest and coming off a loss. 

Marquette is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Marquette is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -6 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines today.  They want revenge from their 54-64 upset loss as 3-point favorites at Wisconsin a few weeks back.  And now they are only 6-point home favorites in the rematch.  When you adjust for home-court advantage based on that first line, they should be 9-point favorites or more. 

But Wisconsin is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which is why the line has been adjusted so much.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Badgers, who aren’t very good but have been winning close game after close game during this stretch.  I expect them to get blown out of the building by the much superior, revenge-minded Wolverines today. 

Michigan is 14-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game.  The Wolverines are a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  The Wolverines get an extra day of rest after playing on Tuesday while the Badgers played in Minnesota on Wednesday.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -2.5 

Don’t look now but the Clemson Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season and at 14-8, have a great shot to make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at NC State as 5-point dogs.  They have blasted Pitt by 13, Wake by 27 and Georgia Tech by 23 since that defeat. 

Virginia Tech is going the other direction due to an injury to its best player.  The Hokies are without Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) and have been without him the last two games.  Their offense has struggled to get anything going without their floor general as they managed just 47 points against NC State and 64 against Louisville in their two games without him.  This is a team that averages 76.7 PPG on the season. 

Clemson is 10-2 at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 19.3 points per game in this spot.  Take Clemson Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +8 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Milwaukee Bucks, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATSin their last five games overall.  But the only impressive win was their road win at Toronto while the other four wins came against teams with losing records.  And the Bucks are banged up right now with Giannis likely to play in spite of a knee injury, but Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Nikola Mirotic are all out. 

Now the Bucks have to go on the road and face a Dallas Mavericks team that has been undervalued at home all season.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 19-7 SU & 19-7 ATS at home this year.  They don’t have to win this game to cover, they just have to stay within 8 points.  I realize Luka Doncic is questionable, but he has been listed as questionable a lot this season and seems to play every time.  I think that will be the case again tonight. 

The Mavericks aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers despite going a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And they want revenge from a 10-point loss at Milwaukee as 10.5-point dogs on January 21st which started this streak.  Now they are catching 8 points at home in the rematch when if you adjust for home-court advantage they should only be catching 4.5 to 5.5 points.  That just shows how overvalued the Bucks are right now. 

The Mavericks are 14-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season, and they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucks.  Add the 9-1, 8-0, 7-0 & 6-0 systems together and we have a 30-1 system backing Dallas tonight.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will want revenge on the Nets, who they have already lost to three times this season.  So they’ll be looking to avoid the season sweep.  And they just played the Nets on January 29th in a 117-122 road loss as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching 9 points in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

The Bulls are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they just traded for Otto Porter Jr., who could make his debut tonight and will add to an already very talented roster.  We should get a big effort from the Bulls, who have been impressive in their last four road games, upsetting Miami by 16 and Cleveland by 16 and only losing by 5 to Brooklyn and by 7 at Charlotte. 

The Nets are banged up right now.  They are missing Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  Yes, Caris LeVert is expected to return from a two-month absence, but he won’t play much tonight.  And this is certainly a tired Nets team as they will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.   

The Nets are coming off two huge games against the Bucks and Nuggets, and have Toronto on deck, so this is a sandwich spot as well.  They won’t be all that motivated to beat the Bulls for a 4th time this season.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing some very competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes upset victories over the Bulls as 5-point dogs and the Wizards as 8-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 to Miami as 8.5-point dogs and by 7 to Boston as 10-point dogs. 

The Wizards have no business being this big of favorites over the Cavaliers.  They just traded away their second-best player in Otto Porter Jr.  They clearly aren’t concerned with winning too many games moving forward.  The Wizards are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset losses to the Cavs and Hawks, and three blowout losses by 13 points or more. 

The Cavs are rested and ready to go, too.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days today.  The Wizards are a tired team as they will be playing their 9th game in 16 days and they play again tomorrow night in Chicago.  It’s just a mentally, beat down team right now that is way too vulnerable to be asked to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight. 

Washington is 2-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +19 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are starting to just go through the motions.  The competition is so weak in the WCC that it’s easy to do.  But due to their 21-2 record and No. 4 ranking, they are consistently laying huge numbers in this conference.  And this one is too big. 

The Bulldogs have failed to cover three of their last five as 23-point favorites against Loyola-Marymount, 28-point favorites against Portland and 23-point favorites against San Diego.  Well, now they’re up against arguably the second-best team in the conference in San Francisco, and they’re laying a whopping 19 points.  It’s simply too much. 

That’s especially the case when you consider the Dons actually led Gonzaga by two points with under four minutes to play in San Francisco on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  But the Bulldogs close on a 17-2 run and posted a misleading 96-83 victory.  You can bet the Dons want some revenge tonight.   

Few teams have played Gonzaga as close as the Dons as three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer.  San Francisco is 17-5 this season, and all five losses came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer against teams not named Gonzaga. 

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Gonzaga) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1997.  Bet San Francisco Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

The Orlando Magic are playing some great basketball right now.  They are flying under the radar because they have had some tough luck in close games.  Each fo their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer, including five by 5 points or less.  And their last three wins have come by an average of 13 points per game.  So, despite being 5-8 in their last 13 games, they have actually only been outscored by one point during this stretch. 

Minnesota is struggling right now due to injuries.  They are missing their top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones, as well as key 3-and-D man Robert Covington.  The Timberwolves are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming at home against lowly Memphis 99-97 in overtime. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  And Orlando basically just has to win to cover tonight.  That shouldn’t be a problem against a Timberwolves team that is just 8-18 SU on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 21-51 ATS in its last 72 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis was basically missing everyone, and still beat Minnesota last time out.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Orlando is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Minnesota, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +2.5 

The Houston Cougars are the 12th-ranked team in the country with their 21-1 start to the season.  But they have benefited from an extremely easy schedule.  For starters, they have played 16 of their 22 games at home this season.  And now they face their stiffest road test of the season tonight. 

UCF is 16-4 this season and one of the best teams in the AAC.  They will be highly motivated tonight with a Top 25 team coming to town.  If they want any shot at winning the AAC, this is a must-win game for them.  It could also help their tournament resume, while Houston is safely in. 

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  They have beaten the likes of Alabama, Illinois State, Temple, Tulsa and UConn at home this year.  Their only home loss came by a single point back in their second game of the season. 

The Knights are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or better over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  UCF is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with UCF Thursday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +4.5 

The Memphis Tigers are coming off back-to-back road losses to Tulsa and South Florida.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face a Top 25 team in Cincinnati.  I fully expect the Tigers to pull off the upset tonight. 

Cincinnati has been extremely fortunate in close games lately, which has them overvalued.  They have won seven straight coming in, but four of those wins came by 5 points or fewer, and six of them came by 11 points or less.  They’ve haven’t been impressive at all in their last four road games, losing outright to ECU as 17.5-point favorites, needing OT to beat Tulsa by 5, needing a huge second half comeback to beat Temple by 4, and also getting a huge second half to turn a deficit into a win at Wichita State. 

Memphis has been a completely different team at home this season.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this year, scoring 89.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting.  Their only home loss came to current No. 1 ranked Tennessee by 10.  They beat UCF by 20 as 1-point favorites and SMU by 22 as 3-point favorites in their last two home games, two of the most impressive results in the AAC this season. 

Memphis is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 games off two straight conference losses.  Cincinnati is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after it was called for 10 or fewer fouls.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Memphis Thursday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +3 

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their win total was 24.5 coming into the season.  They already have 28 wins and surpassed their win total two weeks ago.  Sacramento fans are excited about this team and continue to pack the Golden 1 Center because of it. 

That’s why the Kings have had so much success at home of late.  Indeed, the Kings are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  Their only loss came to the Warriors by 4 as 8-point dogs.  They have upset the likes of the Blazers, 76ers and Spurs at home during this stretch. 

Now I expect the Kings to upset the Rockets, who are still without Clint Capela and could be without Eric Gordon, who is questionable.  The wear and tear on James Harden is starting to show despite the fact that he keeps putting up big numbers.  The Rockets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 

I expect both Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley to dominate the paint with Capela out, which is going to be a key to victory here.  Bagley has missed 14 games due to injury, but they’ve been a different team since he returned.  Bagley is averaging 17.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last six games as he’s had his minutes steadily increase. 

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 3-13 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 10-2 ATS at home when he line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +3 

It’s clearly time to ’sell high’ on the Wisconsin Badgers, who are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and lay points to a Minnesota team with an identical 16-6 record as them.  It’s clearly a sign that the Badgers are overvalued now. 

Let’s just look at the line compared to the last time these teams played.  Minnesota won outright 59-52 at Wisconsin as 9-point dogs.  And now Wisconsin is getting way too much respect again as 3-point road favorites. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how well Minnesota has played at home this season.  The Gophers are 12-1 SU at home.  The Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Minnesota Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks made the trade with the Knicks at a great time.  They’ve been off since Saturday, February 2nd.  That has allowed their new players from the Knicks to get in some important practice time and get accustomed to their new city.  They should come out like gangbusters tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. 

While the Mavericks are on three days’ rest, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  This is a tired Hornets team that will also be without backup PG Tony Parker, who suffered a back injury last night against the Clippers. 

The Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS at home.  The Hornets are just 7-18 SU & 11-14 ATS on the road, giving up a whopping 115.4 points per game on 48% shooting on the highway.  Dallas beat Charlotte 122-84 on the road in their first meeting this season. 

The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Dallas is 13-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.  The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5 

This is a revenge game for Missouri State.  They lost by 5 on the road to Southern Illinois in their first meeting this season.  And they’ve actually lost nine straight in this series to the Salukis.  It’s safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory at home Wednesday night. 

Missouri State is 8-2 at home this season.  Its last two home games were probably two of the most impressive wins in the Missouri Valley this season.  They beat Bradley by 18 in their last home game, 55-37.  But the one that stands out is their 70-35 win over a Loyola-Chicago team that made the Final Four last year and is arguably still the best team in the conference this year.   

It’s the same Loyola-Chicago team that beat Southern Illinois by 25 a few weeks back.  And when you compare common opponents this season, it’s easy to see that the Bears are the better team.  They’ve played 10 games against teams that Southern Illinois has also faced.  They are outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per game in those 10 games, while Southern Illinois is actually getting outscored by 0.8 points per game. 

The Bears are outscoring their opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this season.  Southern Illinois is 4-14 ATS vs. good shooting teams that shoot 45% or better over the last two seasons.  The Salukis are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Missouri State Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -4 

I love the spot for Providence tonight.  They are back home after a brutal stretch in which they played four of their last five games on the road.  And they will be seeking revenge on a Georgetown team that beat them 96-90 (OT) in their first meeting this season. 

Georgetown grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat twice in that first meeting.  They banked in a 3-pointer to force the first overtime, and hit another 3-pointer in the final seconds to force a second overtime, where they eventually won by 6.  You can bet these Friars players have not forgotten and want their revenge. 

It was a rare win for the Hoyas in this series.  Indeed, Providence is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Friars get one extra day to prepare too after playing on Saturday, while Georgetown lost at Villanova on Sunday.  The Hoyas were tied with the Wildcats late but went on an awful run to close.  They could easily suffer a hangover from that defeat against the defending national champs now. 

Georgetown is 0-8 ATS after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 14-3 ATS reining a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last three years.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -2.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren’t even ranked right now despite being 16-5 on the season and 6-2 in Big 12 play.  And they just recently got healthy, which has led to them playing their best basketball of the season. 

Indeed, the Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.  They have gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State during this stretch with two of those wins coming by double-digits.  They’ve also beaten WVU, TCU (by 10) and Texas Tech (by 13) at home.  Now they’ll be highly motivated for a win here against their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks. 

Kansas is more vulnerable then I can remember for quite some time.  They lost big man Udoka Azubuike for the season entering Big 12 play, and now they are also without fellow starter Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG).  The Jayhawks have lost three of their last five games overall with all three losses coming on the road at WVU, Kentucky and Texas. 

Kansas State is 10-1 SU at home this season.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 games.  This is the Wildcats’ best chance to beat Kansas in quite some time, and I expect them to take full advantage at home tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 207 

The injuries the Timberwolves and Grizzlies are dealing with right now are getting comical.  These injuries have affected these teams offensively more than anything, especially the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is without its top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones.  They are also without Robert Covington. 

The Grizzlies are without Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Garrett Temple, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons.  They’ve managed to stay competitive recently despite these injuries, but they’ve really had to slow the pace down and win with defense.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 187, 196, 192 and 180 points. 

The Grizzlies and Timberwolves always seem to play in low-scoring games.  In fact, they have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings, making for an 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 207-point total set.  And they just played each other on January 30th in a 99-97 (OT) victory by the Timberwolves.  That game was tied 93-93 at the end or regulation for 186 combined points.  And these teams are obviously very familiar with one another now, which favors another low-scoring game. 

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER at home with ta line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off two consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -2 

The Syracuse Orange are playing too well right now to only be 2-point home favorites over the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  Syracuse is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall with.  That includes road wins over Duke, ND, Pitt and BC as well as home wins over Clemson, Pitt and Miami. 

Florida State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seminoles lost three straight to Duke, Pitt and BC before winning three straight against Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech and are getting too much respect for their three-game winning streak.  The Seminoles are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in ACC true road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Syracuse is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with FSU winning by 10, 13 and 13 points. 

The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Florida State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 ACC games.  Take Syracuse Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, not to mention their 5th different city in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as you will find in the NBA. 

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they just recently lost their best player in Victor Oladipo.  They have been able to get by the Pelicans and Heat for their two wins since losing him, but are still just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games without him.  They don’t have the firepower to beat the Lakers tonight without him given the tough rest spot. 

The Lakers come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest.  LeBron James is healthy now and rested last game, so he will be primed for a big effort.  And the Lakers are about as healthy as they’ve been all season right now as the only key player they are missing right now is Lonzo Ball, but his absence is not too big of a deal now with a healthy Rajon Rondo. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Lakers) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle -1.5 

The La Salle Explorers are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball right now due to their 6-14 SU record.  Bettors see that record and automatically want nothing to do with them.  But a closer look shows that they are way better than that record would indicate, and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them. 

La Salle played a brutal non-conference schedule, but that prepared them for the Atlantic 10 season.  And the Explorers have been a money maker for weeks now.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of their losses came by 7 points or fewer.  They have won three in a row outright as underdogs coming in with road wins at Fordham and Richmond, as well as a home win over UMass. 

Conversely, St. Joe’s has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Hawks are 10-12 SU & 7-14 ATS this season.  They are just 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS in all road games, including 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in true road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  The Explorers basically just have to win to cover here as 1.5-point favorites.  The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Explorers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2 

The New Orleans Pelicans are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point underdogs to the Indiana Pacers.  It’s because they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with covers against Houston, Denver and San Antonio.  But they trailed by 20-plus points in the 4th quarter against the Spurs before Popovich pulled starters and they made a big comeback. 

Those three covers were surprising because the Pelicans are missing five of their six best players in Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton and E’Twuan Moore.  It’s possible to play well for a few games without so many players, but in the long run it’s going to catch up to them.  And I think it catches up to them tonight. 

The Pacers picked up their first win since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury with an impressive 95-88 win at Miami last time out.  But keep in mind they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 games and their only home game was against Golden State.  This will be their easiest test here since losing Oladipo, and I look for them to take advantage by burying the short-handed Pelicans. 

Indiana is 30-9 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 3-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  New Orleans is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games off an ATS win.  Roll with the Pacers Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3 

The Northwestern Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back road losses to Wisconsin and Maryland.  Now they should be able to get right against the worst team in the Big Ten in Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to Purdue, and I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat.  This is a real deflated team right now mentally having not won a conference game yet. 

Penn State is 0-6 SU in true road games this season.  Northwestern is 9-3 SU In home games.  The home team won both meetings last season with Northwestern winning by 9 and Penn State winning by 15.  And I think the Wildcats have extra motivation after losing to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Tournament last year. 

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Nittany Lions are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -7 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA this season.  They are 38-13 on the year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  They simply have not weaknesses. 

The Brooklyn Nets are extremely vulnerable right now due to injuries.  They are without Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley.  Joe Harris is questionable tonight with a hip injury.  They lost by 13 at Orlando last time out, and I just don’t think they have enough firepower with all of these injuries to keep up with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee won its lone meetings with Brooklyn 129-115 this season.  They led by 19 at halftime and coasted in the second half.  The Bucks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Nets with their 11 wins coming by an average of 12.2 points per game. 

The Bucks are 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Brooklyn.  Milwaukee is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall.  Take the Bucks Monday. 

20* Patriots/Rams Super Bowl LIII No-Brainer on New England -2.5 

The New England Patriots have saved their best football for last.  And I just don’t see them losing to the Rams to drop their second consecutive Super Bowl.  I’ll gladly lay the short number here on the Patriots -2.5 over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII 

The Patriots have outgained seven of their last eight opponents with the only exception being the eight yards they were outgained by in their 10-17 road loss to Pittsburgh.  They have outgained six of those opponents by 100-plus yards.  And they have just been even better in the playoffs. 

Indeed, the Patriots racked up 498 total yards on offense in their 41-28 win over the Chargers.  They outgained the Chargers by 163 yards in that game and would have won by more if they didn’t let their foot off the gas after jumping out to a 35-7 lead.  And in the AFC Championship, the Patriots racked up 524 total yards and outgained them by 234 yards.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 37-31 (OT) final would indicate. 

The Rams have been much less impressive in the playoffs thus far.  They beat the Cowboys 30-22 at home and barely covered as 7.5-point favorites.  And they never should have won at New Orleans, winning 26-23 (OT) only after the refs blew a pass interference call in the final seconds that would have given the Saints the win.  I don’t think they’ll have karma on their side here since the NFL knows that the Rams don’t belong in the Super Bowl. 

The Patriots will be making their 9th Super Bowl appearance in Tom Brady’s 19 seasons.  They clearly have experience handling everything that comes with the Super Bowl, especially since they will be playing in the Super Bowl for the third consecutive season.  The 33-year-old Sean McVay is is a great head coach, but he doesn’t have Super Bowl experience, and neither do most of his players.  They will be at a big disadvantage here because of their lack of experience. 

Bill Belichick is a master at taking away the opponents’ strengths.  That’s what helped the Patriots get out to a 35-7 lead over the Chargers and a 14-0 lead over the Chiefs at halftime.  They completely shut down both offenses in the first half of both of those games, and I think they’ll do the same here against the Rams.  The Rams want to run the football, and the Patriots will take it away and make Jared Goff try and beat them.  I don’t think Goff is built to handle the pressure of the moment here knowing he’s going to have to keep up with Tom Brady. 

Brady has actually gotten better with age.  Brady averaged 267.5 passing yards per game in the postseason before turning 40.  He has thrown for 364.6 passing yards per game since turning 40, nearly 100 yards more since reaching that milestone.  He has 10 touchdowns against only two interceptions since turning 40 in his five postseason games.  He threw for a Super Bowl-record 505 yards against the Eagles last year and the Patriots never had to punt.  I can only think that the Patriots will be much better defensively this time around to help him out. 

The Patriots are 11-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  New England is 17-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years.  The Patriots are 8-0 ATS after leading their last three games by 7-plus points at halftime over the last three seasons.  New England is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 35 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

My 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 53:

Edelman Under 81.5 receiving yards (+100) 

Edelman will be covered in the slot by Nickell Robey-Coleman.  Robey-Coleman is the #1 slot corner in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt allowed to slot receivers.  Edelman plays from the slot, and I expect the Rams to try and take him out of the game with Robey-Coleman matched up against him almost every snap. 

Gronkowski Over 50.5 receiving yards (-150) 

Not only are the Rams good at covering slot receivers, they’re also 3rd in the NFL in covering opposing running backs.  But they aren’t good at covering tight ends.  Gronk should be able to take advantage of his matchups against linebackers and against safety Mark Barron.  Gronk has averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game this season through the playoffs, and he’s been limited by injury.  The Patriots unleashed him last week against the Chiefs as he had 6 receptions for 79 yards.  He also had 116 receiving yards in the Super Bowl last year.  Gronk will be their best matchup to go to in the passing game. 

Sony Michel Over 17.5 rush attempts (-140) 

The Patriots have been going run-heavy in the playoffs.  They’ve made a point of getting off to fast starts, leading 35-7 over the Chargers at halftime and 14-0 over the Chiefs at halftime.  That has certainly inflated their rushing numbers, but I expect them to get off to another fast start in the Super Bowl.  In the two playoff games, Michel rushed 24 times against the Chargers and 29 times against the Chiefs.  He has had at least 17 rush attempts in 6 of his last 8 games. 

James White Over 3.5 rush attempts (-135) 

The Patriots have rushed at least 30 times in 7 of their last 8 games overall.  Not all those carries will go to Michel.  White should get his fair share here, too.  White has had at least 4 rush attempts in 14 of his 18 games this season. 

Patriots Over 128.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

The Patriots have rushed for at least 131 yards in 4 straight games.  They have averaged 160.4 rushing yards per game in their last 8 games overall.  The Rams were 28th in rushing DVOA during the regular season.  They don’t stop the run very well.  The Patriots know they’ll have success running the football against the Rams, and they should exploit it. 

Rams Under 126.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 

The Patriots have allowed 104 or fewer rushing yards in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  They have allowed 118 or fewer rushing yards in 11 of their last 15 games.  Belichick knows that they need to try and make Jared Goff try and beat them.  They aren’t going to let CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley get off.  And since I expect the Patriots to take the early lead, I think this UNDER 126.5 prop is a good one. 

Brandin Cooks Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-135) 

Cooks has 65 or fewer receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games overall.  He is only averaging 58.9 receiving yards per game in those 7 games.  That’s nearly 17 yards less than this 75.5-yard total for him.  The Patriots have some shutdown corners on the outside who are going to make life difficult for Cooks.  They also have familiarity with Cooks after playing with him last season.  They know exactly what his routes look like. 

Rams Total Penalties Accepted Over 5.5 (-135) 

The Rams are a young team with almost no Super Bowl experience.  They have a young head coach in Sean McVay.  I can see the moment being too big for many of their players.  And where that shows up a lot is in false starts, offsides, and alignment penalties.  They average 6 penalties per game on the season.  I expect them to commit at least 6 penalties in this game. 

Total QB Sacks Over 3.5 (-135) 

Two immobile quarterbacks in this game.  I think it’s safe to say that both teams figure to get at least 2 sacks. Both teams like to run play-action, which will allow edge rushers to get to the quarterback if they don’t bite on fakes.  So I like the Over 3.5 quite a bit. 

Team to score last wins the Super Bowl (-190) 

Expected to be yet another close Super Bowl.  And we’ve had our share of late.  9 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been decided by one score.  And this prop has gone 12-1 in the last 13 Super Bowls.  The team that has scored last has won 12 of the last 13.  I’m willing to lay the -190 on this prop for this trend to continue. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +14 

The UConn Huskies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 14-point home favorites over the East Carolina Pirates.  For a team that is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall, the Huskies sure are getting a lot off respect here. 

East Carolina has played some of the best teams in the AAC very tough this season.  They beat Cincinnati outright as 17.5-point home underdogs.  They only lost by 6 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs and by 11 at UCF as 16.5-point dogs.  UConn has already lost to both Cincinnati and UCF this season as well and has yet to play Memphis. 

ECU has UConn’s number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Last year, they only lost by 4 as 6.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 16.5-point road dogs.  The year before, they beat UConn by 4 as 3-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 9-point road dogs. 

UConn is 0-7 ATS after four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Pirates.  Roll with East Carolina Sunday.

15* Minnesota/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +12 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing too well right now to be catching 12 points from the Purdue Boilermakers.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 57-59 as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan.  If they can hang with Michigan on the road, they can certainly hang with Purdue. 

The Boilermakers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them.  They needed overtime to beat Penn State on Thursday, and now they have only had two days to get ready for Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers come in on three days’ rest off their 11-point home win over Illinois on Wednesday. 

The Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Minnesota Sunday.

20* 76ers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They just ended the Warriors’ winning streak with a 113-104 road victory as 8-point underdogs.  After beating the defending champs, there’s no chance the 76ers show up tonight in Sacramento.  They probably spent the last couple nights partying celebrating that victory. 

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they’ll be without two starters tonight in J.J. Redick *18.3 PPG) and Wilson Chandler (6.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG).  The 76ers lack a bench, so without those two they’ll be extremely short-handed.  And the Kings will test them because they play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA. 

The Kings are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Sacramento has been playing really well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They won by 22 over Atlanta, by 8 over Portland, by 7 over Charlotte, by 10 over Detroit, by 16 over Orlando and only lost by 4 to the Warriors as 8-point dogs. 

The Kings are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS in home games off a home game this season. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Philadelphia) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Saturday.   

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -1 

It’s safe to say Illinois State is going to be highly motivated for a victory over Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  Illinois State had its NCAA Tournament bid taken away by Loyola-Chicago in the MVC Championship Game last year, and the Ramblers turned that into a Final Four run. 

Then, in their first meeting this year, Loyola-Chicago won a hard-fought 67-64 game at home over Illinois State as 9-point favorites.  It was a fourth straight victory for the Ramblers in this series.  Now the Redbirds will be more motivated to win this game than any this season.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home tonight. 

Illinois State is 9-2 at home this season.  The Redbirds are playing very well coming in, going 4-1 in their last five games, including their 14-point win at Drake last time out.  Loyola-Chicago has been vulnerable on the road this season.  The Ramblers are 2-3 SU in their last five true road games with a bad loss at St. Joe’s, and blowout road losses at Missouri State by 35 and Evansville by 19. 

The Ramblers just lost fourth-leading scorer Lucas Williamson (8.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) to a hand injury.  He won’t be back until late-February.  The Redbirds are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Illinois State Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 

It’s safe to say the Orlando Magic will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night.  They have lost twice to Brooklyn in the last two weeks 115-117 at home and 110-114 on the road.  Those were both gut-wrenching losses.  They want revenge in a big way tonight. 

The Nets are coming off a tough 114-117 loss at San Antonio.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they certainly won’t be all that motivated to beat the Magic for a 3rd time in two weeks.  It’s also a sandwich game for them with the Milwaukee Bucks on deck, a game they could easily be looking ahead to. 

The Nets are without Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  The Dinwiddie loss is huge because he single-handedly beat the Magic the first time these teams played.  What made the Nets so dangerous was having Dinwiddie (17.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and D’Angelo Russell (19.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) being interchangeable.  Russell now has to do too much. 

Orlando is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -4.5 

It’s a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Marshall Thundering Herd today.  They have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they have lost three of their last four straight up.  But it’s worth noting that all three losses were on the road. 

Marshall is back home here where it is much more comfortable.  Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game on the season.  UTSA is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three true road games, getting upset at Middle Tennessee, and losing by 10 at UAB and by 8 at WKU. 

Marshall is 36-18 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Thundering Herd are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Marshall) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points in their last five games are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Saturday. 

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State -2 

The NC State Wolfpack have lost two of their last three games coming in.  They lost by seven at Louisville and by one in overtime at home to Virginia.  Those aren’t bad losses.  The Wolfpack are 16-5 on the season with all five losses coming by 8 points or less.  They have come back to win in their next game following each loss this season. 

The Wolfpack are 12-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in UNC and Virginia.  They are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game at home this year.  They should be laying more than two points to Virginia Tech here. 

The Hokies have some serious injury concerns coming into this game.  Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) suffered a toe injury last game and is doubtful to play today.  He is their floor general and shoots 47.5% from the field and 82.5% from the free throw line, so he will be missed.  Key reserve P.J. Horne (4.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is also expected to miss this game. 

Virginia Tech has played five true road games this season.  The Hokies are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this year.  Their only wins came by 3 at Georgia Tech as 7-point favorites and by 12 at Miami as 8-point favorites; two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They lost by 22 at Virginia and by 21 at North Carolina.  They were also upset by Penn State on the road, and Penn State still hasn’t won a Big Ten game. 

The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  NC State has won its last three home meetings with Virginia Tech by an average of 15.3 points per game.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  It’s also worth noting the Wolfpack are working on three days’ rest while the Hokies are only on two days’ rest.  Bet NC State Saturday. 

15* St. John’s/Duke ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +17.5 

The St. John’s Red Storm have to feel disrespected being this big of underdogs to Duke Saturday.  This is a Red Storm team that is 16-5 this season with all five losses coming by 11 points or less.  They’ve essentially had a chance to win every game they’ve played, and I think they’ll give Duke a run for its money today. 

I’ve been real impressed with how well St. John’s has played on the road this season.  The Red Storm are 3-3 in true road games this season with their losses coming to Seton Hall (by 2), Villanova (by 5) and Butler (by 9). They’ve beaten Creighton (by 16), Rutgers (by 19) and Georgetown (by 3) on the highway this year. 

Duke has been vulnerable in recent home games.  They lost outright to Syracuse 91-95 as 17-point favorites, and they needed a big 2nd half surge to beat Georgia Tech 66-53 as 22.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Virginia by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their last three home games. 

St. John’s is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Red Storm are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a game where they attempted 7 or fewer free throws.  St. John’s is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents, which includes their upset of Duke last season.  Duke is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big East foes. 

Plays against any team (Duke) - off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent against a team that’s off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take St. John’s Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Not much was expected of them this season, and yet they’ve gone 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS on the year.  And they’re still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as a pick ‘em at home against Memphis. 

The Bulls have been really good at home this season, going 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They are holding opponents to just 61.8 points per game and 40.2% shooting on their home floor.  They have home wins over UConn by 8, Tulane by 18 and Wichita State by 13 in league play.  Their only loss came to Houston, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

South Florida has a huge rest advantage in this game.  They are working on six days’ rest, while Memphis will be working on just two days’ rest and will be playing its 2nd road game in 4 days.  The Tigers will also be playing their 3rd game in 7 days, while USF will be playing just its 2nd game in 11 days. 

Memphis is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at Tulane by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  The Tigers lost by 9 at LSU, by 13 at Houston, by 9 at Temple and by 16 at Tulsa.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 AAC games.  South Florida is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Plays against an underdog (Memphis) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) after 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with South Florida Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -6 

The Charlotte Hornets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 94-126 at Boston last time out.  Now they return home highly motivated for a victory against the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. 

This is a Grizzlies team that is just 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  It’s also a Grizzlies team that is looking to trade its two best players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention, Conley is unlikely to play with a knee injury, and both Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi are out.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with a quad injury as well. 

The Hornets simply own the Grizzlies.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with them with the four wins coming by a whopping 24.0 points per game.  That includes their 118-107 win in Memphis in their first meeting this season.  This is a tired Grizzlies team that will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Hornets will be playing just their 5th game in 12 days. 

Memphis is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  Memphis is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown -2.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are seeking revenge from a 75-81 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season earlier this month.  They should have their revenge at home this time around as only 2.5-point favorites. 

While Georgetown is just 6-4 in its last 10 games overall, all four losses have come by 6 points or less and by a combined 16 points.  This team is much better than its 13-7 record would indicate, but they’ve just had some poor luck in close games.  Six of their seven losses have come by single-digits. 

Xavier is clearly a rebuilding team at 11-10 this season.  The Musketeers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with losses by 15, 15, 18 and 10 points.  Their only road win came at lowly DePaul. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts this season.  The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS when playing their 2nd game in a week this season.  Roll with Georgetown Thursday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors lost their first two meetings this season with the Bucks.  But they won their 3rd meeting on the road earlier this month, and now they’ll be highly motivated to even the season series in what could be a possible tiebreaker for two teams fighting for the No. 1 seed.  I look for the Raptors to get the job done at home tonight. 

Toronto is in a dream spot here having three days’ rest to get ready for the Bucks.  They last played on Sunday in Dallas.  Now they’re rested and back home, where they are 21-4 this season and outscoring opponents by 8.9 points per game. 

Milwaukee is in a much tougher spot here as it will be playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  The Bucks are in the midst of a five-game road trip here.  And the Raptors are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time as they are now just missing Jonas Valanciunas, who is expected to return soon. 

Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are now 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury.  They lost to the lowly Grizzlies, were blown out at home by the Warriors by 32, and were blown out on the road by the Wizards by 18. 

Now the Pacers are short-handed without both Oladipo and Tyreke Evans, and they have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they’ll be up against a highly motivated Orlando Magic team on the road here. 

The Magic have lost four straight, but all four came by single-digits, and each fo their last seven losses have come by 10 points or less.  They’ve simply had some tough luck in close games of late.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, tired Pacers tonight. 

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - a good team that outscores their opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 81-41 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its lsat seven road games.  The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Thursday. 

20* USC/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +7.5 

This number jumped out to me right away as being too high.  I think it’s inflated because Washington has been a covering machine of late.  Indeed, the Huskies have won nine straight and have covered seven straight coming in.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Huskies tonight. 

USC is playing too good right now to be catching 7.5 points from Washington. The Trojans have won three straight coming in by 13 over UCLA, by 23 over Arizona and by 2 over Arizona State.  They had some injuries earlier in the season, but now they are as healthy as they’ve been all year, and it’s starting to show. 

The Trojans are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming on the road to Oregon and Oregon State, including one of those in overtime.  And USC hasn’t lost to Washington by more than 8 points in any of their last 10 meetings. 

Mike Hopkins is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less as the coach of Washington.  USC is 71-37 ATS in its last 108 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Trojans are 9-2 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  Bet USC Wednesday. 

15* Jazz/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting between the Jazz and Blazers this season.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, especially after just playing on January 21st.  Each of the first three meetings in this series have seen 213 or fewer combined points. 

When you look even further back at the head-to-head history, it’s easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Blazers have combined for 217 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings now, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER when pertaining to this 218.5-point total.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings as well. 

The Jazz rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the month of January.  The Blazers have also been solid this month, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency.  Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace this month. 

The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland is 31-12 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last two seasons.  Quin Snyder is 51-28 UNDER vs. division opponents as the coach of Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a tough six-game road trip.  They’ve had plenty of time to recover with two days’ rest and they’ll be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  They are certainly happy to be back home, where they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. 

Atlanta is getting too much respect for its upset win over the Clippers as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday.  But the Clippers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and I was actually on the Hawks in that game.  I’ll gladly fade them tonight in a spot that is much better for the Kings. 

Sacramento won 146-115 in its first meeting at Atlanta.  The Kings also won 105-90 at home in their final meeting last year.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Kings are 10-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 10.7 points per game on average.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. 

Atlanta is 9-24 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games overall the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 9-18 ATS off a road game this season.  Sacramento is 22-10 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3 

The Boston College Eagles come in playing well having gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They also upset Florida State 87-82 as 7-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch. 

Syracuse is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  But they’ve benefited from a home-heavy schedule during this stretch with six of those nine games at home.  And they lost by 22 at Virginia Tech over the weekend. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the past few seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, with Boston College winning by 15 and 15 in its two home meetings with Syracuse.  The Eagles have a big edge in rest here as this will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, while the Orange will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. 

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  Boston College is 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games overall rate last two seasons.  The Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 ACC games.  Roll with Boston College Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -1.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2 at home this season and have wins over the likes of Kentucky and Ole Miss in conference play already. 

Mississippi State is ranked in the Top 25 at 15-4 this season, but the Bulldogs have benefited from an easy early schedule.  Their true colors have shown in SEC play as they are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS.  They lost two of their three true road gams at South Carolina (by 5) and at Kentucky (by 21).  Their only road win came at lowly Vanderbilt. 

Alabama is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Mississippi State with its only loss coming 63-67 on the road last season.  Dating back further, the Crimson Tide are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Bulldogs. 

Alabama is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  Mississippi State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -3 

This feels like a great time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska and ’sell high’ on Wisconsin tonight.  Nebraska has lost three straight and failed to cover the spread in all three against Michigan State, Rutgers and Ohio State coming in.  Now the Huskers are in desperate need of a victory and should play with a chip on their shoulder at home tonight. 

Wisconsin has won three straight and covered three straight coming in.  They beat both Michigan and Northwestern at home, while also winning at Illinois.  But they had lost four of their previous five games and I think this run is more of an aberration than anything.  This Wisconsin team just isn’t very good with few playmakers outside of Ethan Happ. 

Nebraska is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its lsat four meetings with Wisconsin.  It’s only loss came in overtime by a single point.  The Huskers won by 11 and by 12 in their two road meetings during this stretch, and by 4 at home.  I think they should have no problem winning by at least 4 points at home here Tuesday night given how motivated they’ll be. 

Nebraska is 20-2 SU in its last 22 home games.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS as a home favorite or PK over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday games.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Wisconsin.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I think this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on Orlando and ’sell high’ on Oklahoma City tonight.  The Magic are catching 5.5 points at home against the Thunder and will have an excellent chance to win this game outright, but we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

We’re buying low on a Magic team that has lost six of its last seven coming in.  But they’ve had some hard-luck losses during this stretch.  They lost by 5 in OT at Detroit, by 2 to Brooklyn, but 4 at Brooklyn, by 4 to Washington and by 5 at Houston.  The only time they lost by more than 5 during this stretch was when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in a 10-point loss to the Bucks as 10-point dogs. 

We’ll sell high on a Thunder team that has won five straight coming in.  But the Thunder had lost five of their previous six before that.  And four of their last five wins have come by single-digits.  This is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder as well off their huge 118-112 home win over the Bucks on Sunday.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

Orlando just has a knack for playing Oklahoma City tough.  Indeed, the Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas -1 

These aren’t the same Kansas Jayhawks that we’ve been accustomed to seeing for years.  This is actually the worst Kansas team that I can remember, and a lot of that has to do with the season-ending injury to their star big man in Udoka Azubuike.  They lack an inside presence and aren’t nearly as physical as most former Kansas teams. 

It’s been obvious to see that the Jayhawks have been overrated most of the season.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations since Big 12 play started.  The Jayhawks are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing at Arizona State, Iowa State, WVU and Kentucky. 

Texas certainly wants revenge from its 78-80 loss at Kansas as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  I think getting the Jayhawks at home this time around will make all the difference.  Adding to Texas’ motivation is the fact that it is off back-to-back road losses at TCU and Georgia and will be glad to be back home here Tuesday night. 

Texas is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Texas) - revenging a close loss of 3 points or less, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Take Texas Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +8.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been flying under the radar since SEC play started.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset Florida as 12.5-point road dogs, upset Mississippi State as 6-point home dogs, rolled Missouri by 10 at home, upset Vanderbilt as 4-point road dogs, and upset Auburn as 8-point home dogs. 

Now the Gamecocks will be licking their chops at the opportunity to face the No. 1 team in the country in Tennessee.  And with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are tough for the Vols to live up to.  That has shown here of late as they only beat Alabama by 3 as 13-point home favorites and needed OT to beat Vanderbilt on the road as 9.5-point favorites.  They did beat WVU at home by 17, but only covered by 2 and WVU is one of the worst teams in the Big 12. 

South Carolina is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tennessee.  The two losses came by 7 points at home and by 3 points on the road.  The three wins came by 26, 10 and 27 points.  The Gamecocks clearly have the Vols’ number and should not be catching 8.5 points to them at home tonight. 

South Carolina is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 SEC games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight games where they were called for five-plus less fouls than their opponent.  Rick Barnes is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games as the coach of the Vols.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since January 2-3.  This is a very tired Clippers team right now. 

The Atlanta Hawks are rested and ready to go.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 13 days here tonight.  They won at Chicago 121-101 and only lost 111-120 at Portland in the first two games of this seven-game road trip. 

The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to wear down with James Harden having to shoulder too much of the load with both Clint Capela and Chris Paul out. And they certainly should not be 8.5-point favorites over the Magic tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at home to the Nets in overtime and needed OT to beat the Lebron-less Lakers at home as well.  They lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and they needed some last-second heroics from Eric Gordon to beat the lowly Knicks by 4.  They also beat the Raptors by 2 at home during this stretch. 

The Magic just beat the Rockets 116-109 as 5.5-point home dogs on January 13th.  The Magic haven’t lost by more than 7 to the Rockets in five of their last seven meetings.  And they should be able to stay within the number here. 

Houston is 4-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Magic are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in their last trips to Houston.  Take the Magic Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won four straight coming in and are playing some great basketball.  Now they will be highly motivated to beat the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. 

The Thunder are also rested and ready to go tonight coming in on two days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days’ rest.   

Oklahoma City is 42-20-3 ATS in its last 65 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -1.5 

The Memphis Tigers are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per game at home this year.  And as only 1.5-point favorites over UCF, they basically just have to win to cover today. 

UCF certainly isn’t playing all that well coming in.  The Knights are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They failed to cover at home against ECU, lost at Wichita State 67-75 as favorites, only beat Tulsa by 2 as 10-point home favorites, and won in a blowout against the worst team in the AAC in Tulane. 

Memphis is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 8.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

Loyola-Chicago is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 35-70 shocker at the hands of Missouri State on the road.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home Sunday to face Southern Illinois. 

It was a rare poor performance for the Ramblers, who made the Final Four last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  They had won five of their previous six games with four of those victories coming by 8 points or more.  That performance against Missouri State was clearly an aberration. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-3 at home this season and winning by 13.8 points per game.  Southern Illinois has lost four of its last five and shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Ramblers won their two meetings with Southern Illinois by 14 at home and 19 on the road last year. 

Plays on any team (Loyola) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 points or more total ion their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 54-17 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Ramblers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Sunday. 

15* Syracuse/VA Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -6 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Virginia Tech Hokies today.  They have failed to cover the spread in five straight games coming in.  They have also lost two of their last three, so they will be highly motivated for a victory. 

It’s hard to blame the Hokies for their two road losses at Virginia and UNC, two of the best teams in the country.  But now they’re back home Saturday where they are 10-0 SU & 6-4 ATS on the season while outscoring opponents by a whopping 28.7 points per game on their home floor. 

Syracuse is at a huge schedule disadvantage here.  The Orange will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after a home win over Miami on Thursday.  Virginia Tech comes in on four days’ rest having last played on Monday.  And it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Orange, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Syracuse is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots.  The Orange are 4-16 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week over the last three seasons.   

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Virginia Tech) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1 

The USC Trojans are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with an average margin of victory of 19.3 points per game. 

That includes a 4-0 home mark in conference play with wins over Cal by 9, Stanford by 11, UCLA by 13 and Arizona by 23.  The Trojans have been rolling since getting healthy after a poor start to the season.  And I think they are still undervalued as only 1-point home favorites over Arizona State today. 

The Sun Devils are just 3-2 in true road games this season with their wins coming over Georgia by 2, lowly Cal, and lowly UCLA.  They lost at Vanderbilt by 16 and lost at Stanford by 14.  This will easily be their toughest road test yet here Saturday. 

Arizona Strate is 0-7 ATS off a road win over a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last 3 years.  Bet USC Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2 

The Oregon State Beavers have been a juggernaut at home this season.  They are 8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season.  That includes wins over USC by 5, UCLA by 13 and Washington State by 13 in their three Pac-12 home games. 

Now the Beavers are only laying two points at home against Washington in a game that they basically just have to win to cover.  And the Huskies are in a bad spot here having to play their 2nd road game in 3 days. 

It’s a Washington team that is improved this season, but one that is also clearly overvalued right now after winning eight straight and covering six straight coming in.  They have beaten up on the Pac-12 bottom feeders as they’ve easily had the easiest conference schedule of anyone thus far.  It gets much tougher on the road at Oregon State Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  And the Beavers basically just have to win to cover here.  The Huskies are 2-9 ATS vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.  Washington is also just 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5 

The Wisconsin Badgers are laying way too many points today against Northwestern.  They don’t have the firepower to cover these big spreads on a regular basis, and they mirror Northwestern with the way that they like to play, which is slow down offense and solid defense. 

The Badgers come into this game getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their back-to-back wins over Michigan and Illinois.  They covered the spread in both games as well.  But keep in mind they had gone 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five games.  They aren’t all of a sudden a juggernaut. 

Northwestern is playing well since getting their best player in Vic Law back from injury.  The Wildcats went on the road and beat Rutgers 65-57 as 2.5-point favorites, and took care of business at home in a 73-66 win over Indiana as 2-point favorites.  And they will certainly be playing the underdog card here against Wisconsin. 

Home-court advantage hasn’t meant anything in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Northwestern has won outright as an underdog in its last two trips to Wisconsin, winning 60-52 as a 2.5-point road dog last season and 66-59 as an 11.5-point road dog the year before. 

Wisconsin is 1-10 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last three seasons.  Take Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Big 12/SEC Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -4.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are showing that they are contenders in the Big 12 when healthy.  Since getting two key players back from injury, they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.   

The Wildcats have gone on the road and upset both Iowa State and Oklahoma, and they’ve taken care of business at home against TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  And now they should have no problem going on the road and covering this short number against Texas A&M. 

The Texas A&M Aggies are one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They are just 7-10 SU & 7-10 ATS on the season.  They have lost six of their last seven coming in with their lone victory coming by a ginned point.  They have lost by 9 points or more in five of those six losses, so they’ve rarely even been competitive. 

Texas A&M is 1-9 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas State is 10-2 ATS off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

20* Butler/Creighton Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton -2.5 

The Creighton Bluejays will be out for revenge from their 69-84 loss at Butler on January 5th earlier this month in their first meeting.  I expect them to get their revenge here as they have a big advantage in rest and preparation for this one. 

The Bluejays will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days here.  It will be the 5th game in 13 days for Butler, which has already played seven games in the month of January, while the Blue Jays have only played five games this month. 

Butler has not fared well at all in true road games this season.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season with their only win coming at DePaul, which is one of the worst teams in the Big East.  Their four losses have come by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Creighton has won its last three home meetings with Butler by 11, 11 and 8 points.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings dating back further.   

The Bulldogs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games. Butler is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Creighton.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Bet Creighton Friday.

15* Raptors/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

James Harden and the Houston Rockets are wearing down.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost in overtime at home to the Nets, needed overtime to beat the Lakers at home, lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and needed some last-second heroics to beat the Knicks on the road.  It hasn’t been a good look for them. 

Now the Rockets have to face one of the top teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors tonight.  This is a Raptors team that is getting healthy as they should have everyone available except Jonas Valanciunas tonight.  And it’s rare that they’ve been this healthy. 

The same cannot be said for the Rockets, who haven’t gotten much help outside James Harden, and he’s running on fumes now.  Clint Capela remains out, and Chris Paul is questionable to return tonight.  Whether he does or not, I like the Raptors because Paul won’t play much even if he does finally make his return. 

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets, which includes 129-113 and 115-102 upsets on the road in their two trips to Houston during this span.  Houston is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4 

I always like fading teams after playing the Golden State Warriors.  And that’s the unfavorable spot the Wizards are in tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and it’s not a hangover/letdown spot after facing the Warriors last night.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

This is a Magic team that’s highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games overall.  But three of those losses were by 5 points or fewer, plus a 10-point loss to Milwaukee as 10-point dogs when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have recent upset home wins over Boston and Houston as well. 

The Wizards are just 6-18 SU & 6-18 ATS on the road this season, getting outscoring by 9.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. 

Washington is 3-15 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game this season.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Washington is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 road games dating back to last season.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1 

The Lakers have held their own without Lebron James.  Their last three games they’ve been through the gauntlet and have fared well.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs at Oklahoma City, and they led at Houston the entire way before eventually losing in overtime as 7-point dogs.  Sure, they lost by 19 to the Warriors, but the Warriors are mowing down everyone. 

Now the Lakers have had two days’ rest since that loss to the Warriors, and they should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Timberwolves.  They also could get Rajon Rondo back from injury, which would help mitigate the losses of James and Lonzo Ball.  They still have plenty of talent to beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  They lost by 42 at Philadelphia, were upset at home by San Antonio, and barely won by 2 as 12-point home favorites over Phoenix.  They did go into Phoenix and win and cover, but their two wins during this stretch have been against the worst team in the West in the Suns.  The Timberwolves are just 7-16 SU in road games this season, while the Lakers are 15-10 SU at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday. 

15* Michigan State/Iowa FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season.  They are ready to knock off a team that caliber of Michigan State, especially since they’re at home tonight.  And they are certainly playing well enough to pull the upset coming in. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Purdue.  The Hawkeyes are 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game.  They have recent blowout home wins over Illinois by 24, Ohio State by 10, Nebraska by 9 and Iowa State by 14. 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on Michigan State, which has now won 12 straight while going 11-1 ATS.  The betting public has been all over them, and oddsmakers are forced to set their lines higher than they should be in the immediate future.  They struggled to put Florida, Nebraska and Ohio State away on the road this season, and they lost at Louisville.  I fully expect Iowa to give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s also a revenge game for the Hawkeyes after losing 68-90 at Michigan State earlier this season.  Last year, Iowa only lost 93-96 at home to Michigan State as 10-point dogs.  And the Hawkeyes are a lot better this season.  Iowa is 12-3 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons, and 8-1 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two years. 

Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less in three straight games over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 4-14 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team that forces 12 or fewer per game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +14 

I love the spot for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane tonight.  They will want revenge from a 65-70 (OT) home loss to Cincinnati on January 10th exactly two weeks ago today.  They were 6.5-point dogs in that game, and now they are whopping 14-point road dogs in the rematch.  This is simply too many points. 

Tulsa is way better than they are getting credit for tonight.  They only lost at UCF by 2 as 10-point road dogs last time out.  UCF is one of the best teams in the AAC.  They also have upset wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State this season, and they covered in losses to Cincinnati and Nevada.  They’re battle-tested and ready to go into Cincinnati and try to pull the upset here. 

Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes the non-cover against Tulsa.  But they were also upset by ECU as 17.5-point favorites, they only beat UConn by 2 at home as 11.5-point favorites, and they only beat USF at home by 8 as 13.5-point favorites.  They did cover as 5-point favorites at Wichita State, but they weren’t covering until a double technical in the final minutes that resulted in six straight free throws for the Bearcats.  They made all six and the rest was history. 

Tulsa easily covered as 17-point road dogs at Cincinnati last year in an 8-point loss.  And Tulsa is better than they were a year ago, while Cincinnati is a lot worse.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS after playing two straight games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Tulsa is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less this season.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Tulsa Thursday. 

15* Nuggets/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5 

The Utah Jazz had won six straight prior to losing to the Blazers last time out.  I like the fact that they are off a loss here because they should come back motivated at home on National TV with the Denver Nuggets coming to town tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. 

The Jazz also get starting PG Ricky Rubio back from injury tonight.  Denver is 2-12 ATS in road games off two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Utah is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Plays on home teams (Utah) - off a loss to a division opponent against a team that’s off two consecutive covers as a favorite are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1.5 

Fading the Memphis Grizzlies is the best bet you could have made over the last month-plus.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are just 3-17 SU & 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are starting to get burnt out. 

The Grizzlies will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  Six of their last eight losses have come by double-digits.  And now sources say that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are available for trade.  I think both veterans want out of this situation, which says a lot for two stalwarts that have been in Memphis forever. 

The Hornets come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh.  They are playing well coming in.  They have won three of their last four.  They won by 15 at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and also throttled the Kings by 19 and the Suns by 20 at home.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Indiana. 

The Hornets have had the Grizzlies’ number.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have won five of the last six meetings straight up.  Memphis is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5 

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Nets at home on Friday, January 18th less than a week ago today.  They lost that game 115-117.  And now they’ll be out for revenge here while catching 6.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

The Magic are playing well enough to where they should not be this big of underdogs in this spot.  They have upset home wins over the Celtics and Rockets, and an upset road win at Atlanta by 19 in their last six games. They lost in overtime at Detroit and obviously lost by two to Brooklyn, and then had to play the Bucks the following night and were competitive throughout before losing by 10 as 10-point dogs at home. 

This has been a very closely-contested series of late, which is another reason to love getting 6.5 points.  Each of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or less, including four by 5 points or fewer.  And it’s worth noting the Magic get arguably their best player in Aaron Gordon back from a two-game absence tonight due to injury. 

The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nets here tonight and back Orlando in revenge mode.  Bet the Magic Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio State +1.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes have certainly burnt me in recent weeks.  They have lost four straight, and I’ve been on them for three of those losses.  But I’m back on them again here in a must-win game against the Purdue Boilermakers if they want to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes as home underdogs here.  It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Boilermakers, who have won six of their last seven coming in.  But five of those wins were at home.  They needed overtime to beat Wisconsin on the road, and they also lost to Michigan State by 18 on the road.  The Boilermakers are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season. 

Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Purdue is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -1.5 

TCU should be highly motivated for a win after losing three of its last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road to Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas State.  Their only home game during this stretch resulted in a 31-point blowout of West Virginia. 

I feel like this is a get right game for the Horned Frogs.  They are 8-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 13.5 points per game.  They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  TCU is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss as well. 

Texas has also lost three of its last four coming in.  The Longhorns lost on the road to Kansas and Oklahoma State, and also lost at home to Texas Tech.  They only beat Oklahoma by 3 as 5-point home favorites, and they are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS I the last seven meetings.  TCU has won three straight home meetings with Texas, including the last two by an average of 15.5 points per game. 

TCU is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 2-11 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three years.  The Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two years.  TCU is 8-1 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss over the last two years.  They are bouncing back to win by 19.5 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Wednesday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +5 

I love the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation as the Suns lost a heartbreaker to the Timberwolves 114-116 in Minnesota on Sunday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later.  I fully expect them to have their revenge. 

The Suns have played the Timberwolves tough in both meetings this series.  They won 107-99 as 7.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they only lost by 2 as 12-point dogs obviously two days ago.  Six players scored in double figures for the Suns in that contest. 

The Timberwolves are just 6-16 SU & 9-13 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up a whopping 116.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting on the highway this year.  They should not be this heavily favored on the road over the Suns given their road record and the situation. 

The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet the Suns Tuesday. 

15* Duke/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +13 

The Duke Blue Devils are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a huge win over top-ranked Virginia 72-70 on Saturday.  They put a lot of emotion into that game, and they will be hard-pressed to match that effort here on the road at Pittsburgh.  That’s going to make it tough for them to put away this feisty Panthers team by more than 13 points. 

Pittsburgh has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Panthers have gone 12-6 SU & 12-5 ATS this season as first-year head coach Jeff Capel has done an excellent job of implementing quality transfers.  And you can bet Capel wants to beat his mentor in Coach K as he served as an assistant at Duke for eight seasons prior to joining Pitt. 

The Panthers are 10-2 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  They have already upset Florida State 75-62 as 4-point dogs and upset Louisville 89-86 as 3-point dogs in ACC play this season at home.  And Duke is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers of late, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games, all of which were decided by 4 points or fewer against FSU, Syracuse and Virginia. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Duke) - off a win by 6 points or less are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season.  The Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Pittsburgh Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern PK 

I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight.  They will be seeking revenge from a tough 66-68 road loss at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 1st.  Now they have a shot at revenge at home this time around, and they only have to win the game to cover. 

Indiana has lost four straight while going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of those four losses came by double-digits, and their only win during this stretch came five games back at home against the worst team in the Big Ten in Illinois. 

Northwestern gets an extra day of rest and preparation here having last played on Friday, while Indiana last played on Saturday in a 15-point loss at Purdue.  It will also be just the 2nd game in 9 days for the Wildcats, who recently got their best player in Vic Law back from injury.  He means everything to this team. 

Indiana is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming by two points at Penn State.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings.  Bet Northwestern Tuesday. 

15* Texas Tech/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats battled injuries through most of the season.  But now they are fully healthy, and they are starting to show their potential.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, and blasted TCU by 10 at home. 

The Wildcats’ only loss during this stretch came back when they were missing a couple players in a 57-63 road loss at Texas Tech as 11.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 6 despite shooting 33.3% overall and 4-for-23 (17.4%) from 3-point range.  Now healthy, the Wildcats want their revenge on the Red Raiders at home this time around. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings, and the Wildcats basically just have to win this game to cover.  The Red Raiders are coming off a home loss to Iowa State and an 11-point road loss at Baylor, and I think they are way overvalued right now. 

That has been evident with the fact that the Red Raiders are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Texas Tech is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 Big 12 games.  The Wildcats are 28-11-3 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Texas Tech is 0-8 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Kansas State is 22-3 ATS in its last 25 home games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  Take Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -4.5 

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a lot better than their 9-9 record would suggest.  Each of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less, including the last three by a combined five points. 

One of those losses was a one-point defeat at Marshall, 69-70.  That game was played on January 12th, so the Hilltoppers don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially since they also lost by a single point 66-67 to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament last year. 

Marshall is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season, and three of those wins have come by a combined five points, so they were very close to being 1-8 on the road this year.  Western Kentucky is 5-2 at home with wins over the likes of St. Mary’s and Wisconsin.  They also have road wins over West Virginia and Arkansas this season.  Those four wins alone show you that this is a very good team. 

Marshall is 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The Thundering Herd are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games off five or more consecutive wins.  Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet Western Kentucky Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks PK 

It’s safe to say the Atlanta Hawks aren’t tanking.  They have some impressive results over the last few weeks that show they can play with anyone.  And I certainly think they can beat the Magic at home tonight, especially since the Hawks are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Hawks beat the Heat by 24 as 6.5-point home dogs on January 6th.  They followed that up with only a 3-point road loss at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs.  They upset Philadelphia as 10.5-point road dogs on January 11th.  They upset Oklahoma City as 10.5-point home dogs on January 15th.  And last time out they led the Celtics the entire way until the 4th quarter and lost by 8. 

The Magic are starting to show some fatigue.  The will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and their 9th game in 16 days.  They have lost three straight coming in and are just 5-12 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games with six of those losses coming by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days. 

The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money. 

The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point.  Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well.  Take the Mavericks Monday. 

15* Patriots/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3 

When you consider the Patriots needed a last-second field goal to beat the Chiefs at home in their first meeting this season, it’s easy to see why I like the Chiefs this week.  Now the Chiefs are at home as they earned home-field advantage with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  That’s going to be the difference in this game Sunday. 

The Chiefs are 8-1 at home this season.  Their defense has played so much better at home than on the road.  They are giving up just 17.4 points and 344.6 yards per game at home this season.  They held the Colts to just 13 points and 263 total yards last week, which is no small feat with how well the Colts were rolling.  And now they will shut down Tom Brady and company this week. 

While the Patriots are 9-0 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Patriots are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season, actually getting outscored by 2.4 points per game on average.  They give up 399 yards per game on the road, and their offense is only scoring 21.6 points per game on the highway.  The Patriots have losses to the likes of Jacksonville (20-31), Detroit (10-26), Tennessee (10-34) and Miami (33-34) on the road this season.  All four of those are non-playoff teams even.  They also lost to Pittsburgh, and their three wins have come against the Jets, Bills and Bears. 

The Patriots have never gone to the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl, going 0-5 in five tries.  Tom Brady is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs.  And Brady lost his big play threat in Josh Gordon late in the season.  Brady averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with Gordon on the field, and only 5.6 per attempt with Gordon off the field this season.  Gronk is a shell of his former self.  He has two or fewer receptions and 25 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games right now. 

Home teams are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Round over the last five years.  That’s right, no team has gone on the road in the last five years and won a game to get to the Super Bowl.  It’s worth noting that the Patriots scored 41 points on the Chargers last week.  But teams who scored 40 points or more in a playoff win the previous week are just 5-25-1 ATS the next week, including 2-11-1 ATS in the Championship Round.  Also, the Patriots have been home for three straight weeks, which has been a big advantage for them.  Teams who go on the road following three straight home games have gone 3-14 SU & 3-14 ATS in the playoffs. 

Kansas City is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games.  It’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ time.  They are getting to the Super Bowl with a win and cover here against the ‘mighty’ Patriots.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -3 

The Drake Bulldogs are worth a bet at home today against the Missouri State Bears.  This Drake team has been one of the most underrated in the country all season.  That’s evident by the fact that they’ve gone 12-4 ATS in their 16 lined games.  They are also 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, winning by 15.1 points per game on average. 

Missouri State is clearly down this season.  The Bears have gone 8-10 SU and 7-10 ATS in their 17 lined games.  That includes a 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS mark in all games played away from home.  The Bears should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Missouri State is 0-9 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Drake is 23-8-1 ATS in its lsat 32 home games.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3 

The Saints are the best team in the NFC.  They have been all season, and they still are.  So with that being the case, they should be more than a 3-point favorite over the Rams when you factor in home-field advantage.  The home field for the Saints is worth more than 3 points, especially in a playoff atmosphere.  And they’re the better team.  This line should be closer to -4.5 or -5 than -3. 

I think because the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Rams have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall gives us a ‘buy low, sell high’ opportunity here.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Saints and ’sell high’ on the Rams.  But the Saints were big favorites in each of their last four games, and they won three of them.  The only one they lost was a meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina in which they rested their starters. 

I think the Saints are getting discredited too much for their 20-14 win over the Eagles last week.  The way they won trailing 14-0 and overcoming adversity to score the final 20 points and shut down the Eagles after the first quarter will give them a ton of confidence heading into this game.  This team feel invincible now, especially after the defense came up with a huge INT to save the game on the final drive.  And it’s worth noting the Saints outgained the Eagles by 188 yards in that game.  The Rams lost outright to the Eagles 23-30 at home as 13.5-point favorites late in the season. 

I’m definitely backing the better quarterback here in Drew Brees, and the better defense in the Saints.  I’ll almost always back the better QB and the better defense every time in this situation.  Drew Brees is 6-0 in playoff home games under Sean Payton.  The Saints are scoring 32.6 points and averaging 402.9 yards per game at home this season. 

But it’s the defense that really gets me excited.  The Saints have allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games in which their starters played.  They are giving up just 14.5 points per game in those eight games in which their starters played.  And I think the biggest strength, which is their run D, will be huge in this matchup. 

Jared Goff can’t be trusted in big games.  He has a 0-to-5 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against playoff teams.  It’s a big reason the Rams went run-heavy last week, rushing for 273 yards on 48 carries against the Cowboys.  But it’s worth noting they had a huge advantage because they picked up on a ’tell’ by the Cowboys that let them know which way they were stunting.  Players said it was 80% to 90% of the time right.  It explains why the Rams were able to exploit what was previously a great Cowboys run D. 

Well, the Saints rank 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 80.2 rushing yards per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.6) allowed.  There’s no question the Saints are going to try to force Jared Goff to try and beat them, and I don’t think he can.  The Rams’ passing game just hasn’t been nearly as effective since Goff lost his favorite security blanked in Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury. 

The Saints beat the Rams 45-35 at home in their first meeting this season.  They racked up 487 total yards and 31 first downs on this Rams’ defense, which has some star players, but as a whole is extremely vulnerable.  Clearly Brees and company found some holes in the first meeting, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns.  That was a 35-14 game and was a bigger blowout than the final score showed even.  And Goff had Kupp, who had 89 receiving yards and a score in that contest. 

Home teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Games over the past five seasons.  That’s right, no road team has gone on the road to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in the last five years.  I don’t think it will be a QB the caliber of Goff that ends this streak Sunday.  The home team has won six straight meetings in this series.  The Saints have won their last three home meetings wit the Rams by an average of 18.7 points per game.  Bet The Saints Sunday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2 

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They needed OT to beat Orlando a few nights ago, and snuck out a 98-93 victory over the Heat at home last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Sacramento Kings tonight. 

Making matters worse for the Pistons is the fact that the Kings play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test Detroit’s tired legs.  And the Pistons have some key injuries with Andre Drummond expected to miss this game, and Ish Smith questionable with a groin injury. 

The Kings come in rested an ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They had their impressive three-game winning streak come to an end with their 95-114 loss at Charlotte last time out, but that was a bad spot for them as the Hornets were out for revenge after losing to them less than a week prior in Sacramento.  I took the Hornets in that game, but I’m on the Kings tonight in a great bounce-back spot. 

Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games when revving a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are losing by 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Kings beat the Pistons by 10 at home in their first meeting this year.  Sacramento is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 when playing on one days’ rest.  The road team is 14-6-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13 

I love the spot for Oklahoma State today.  The Cowboys want revenge form a 63-69 home loss to Iowa State as 4-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And now they are catching a whopping 13 points in the rematch here. 

Oklahoma State has been very competitive on the road this season.  They have played five true road games, and they didn’t lose once by more than 10 points.  They also won outright at West Virginia 85-77 as 7-point dogs.  I think they are being devalued after getting upset by Baylor at home last time out, but Baylor shot 15-for-25 from 3-point range so there wasn’t much they could do in their 79-83 loss. 

Iowa State is in a massive letdown spot off its upset road win over Top 10 opponent Texas Tech.  They lost outright to Kansas State as 8.5-point favorites in their previous home game.  Oklahoma State hasn’t lost any of its last five trips to Ames by more than 11 points.  And it’s worth noting the Cowboys get extra rest here having last played on the 14th, while the Cyclones played on the 16th. 

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning these games by 3.7 points per game on average.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -3 

The Memphis Tigers are 9-1 at home this season.  They should be able to handle their business as only 3-point home favorites against SMU, which has gone 1-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year. 

SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.   

The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Memphis Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

Off back-to-back road losses, the USC Trojans return home Saturday.  I fully expect them to get back in the win column, which saw them win four straight at home prior to those road losses.  The Trojans are now 8-2 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 14.6 points pre game. 

The UCLA Bruins are just 1-2 in true road games, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game.  They will be playing their 3rd consecutive road games, which is tough for any college basketball team.  Home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings. 

USC is 20-6 ATS after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds over the past three seasons.  UCLA is 1-4 ATS in tis last five road games.  The Bruins are 7-19 ATS int heir last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with USC Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wichita State +5.5 

Wichita State has improved a ton since the beginning of the season, which is a testament to head coach Gregg Marshall.  The Shockers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late and they’ve held their own.  They took Temple to OT in a game they led throughout at home, they covered as 11-point dogs at Houston, and they upset UCF 75-67 as 2.5-point home dogs last time out 

Now the Shockers get to face an overrated Cincinnati team, and they are catching too many points at home here today with this 5.5-point spread.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright as 17.5-point favorites at East Carolina, needed OT to win at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites, only beat UConn by 2 as 11.5-point home games, and only beat USF by 8 as 13.5-point home favorites. 

Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season with their two wins both coming by 5 points or less at Tulsa and at UNLV.  They were upset by ECU and also lost by 11 at Mississippi State.  Both meetings were decided by 4 points or less last year and by a combined 5 points.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Bet Wichita State Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

This is a good time to ‘buy low’ on Indiana and ’sell high’ on Purdue.  The Hoosiers have lost three straight coming in, though they were competitive in road losses to Michigan and Maryland, two of the top teams in the Big Ten and two teams that are better than Purdue. 

Purdue comes in overvalued after winning five of its last six games overall.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule with home wins over Ohio, Belmont, Iowa and Rutgers, as well as a road win at Wisconsin in overtime.  They lost by 18 at Michigan State in their lone loss. 

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less, and all five by 11 points or fewer.  The Boilermakers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.  Purdue is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +8 

This is a dream spot to fade Syracuse.  The Orange are coming off a massive 95-91 win at Duke as 17-point dogs.  Now it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown at home today against Pitt.  They won’t be nearly as focused against Pitt as they were against Duke, which is going to make it difficult to cover this 8-point spread. 

It also works in our favor that Pitt has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Jeff Capel has done a tremendous job of implementing transfers, and the Panthers have gone 12-5 SU & 12-4 ATS this season.  They have outright wins as underdogs over the likes of FSU, Louisville, and Saint Louis, and three of their five losses came by 6 points or less, including two by exactly one point. 

Syracuse has played better on the road than at home.  The Orange have been upset at home by Buffalo, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech this season.  They also have neutral court losses to Oregon and UConn, and they only beat Georgetown by one as 9.5-point favorites.  They will struggle to putt away Pitt given the spot. 

The Panthers are 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings, and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 trips to Syracuse.  Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Panthers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The Orange are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Saturday games.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games where they attempted 10 or fewer shots than their opponents.  Pitt is 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Take Pittsburgh. 

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Playing the Pacific Northwest gives them that advantage, plus their fans are always loyal.  They have gone 19-7 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just 6-18 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season.  The Pelicans are coming off a tough 140-147 road loss to the defending champion Warriors, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors because it’s impossible for them to be as emotionally invested as they were against the Warriors, meaning it’s a hangover spot whether win or lose. 

Portland is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Friday games.  The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Roll with the Blazers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic PK 

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing real well over the past week.  They have upset home wins over Boston and Houston, and they lost in overtime at Detroit.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, which also includes an upset win over Toronto.  I fully expect the Magic to be able to take care of business at home tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. 

This is a big-time letdown spot for the Nets.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Boston and at Houston.  They way they won at Houston makes this a letdown spot.  They forced overtime, were trailing by 7 in the extra period, and managed to go on a 10-0 run to win 145-142 over James Harden and company.  It’s only human nature to have a letdown off such a big win like that. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Magic are 8-0 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Take the Magic Friday.

20* Maryland/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in with two of those on the road.  The only home loss came to Michigan State, which has now won 19 straight Big Ten games.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes, who have failed to cover six of their last seven coming in and have dropped out of the Top 25. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Maryland Terrapins, who have won six straight coming in and are now ranked No. 19 in the country.  But they’ve played six of their last eight games at home with their two road wins coming against the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota.  Rutgers is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and Minnesota just lost to previously winless Illinois by 30-plus. 

Ohio State is favored for good reason here despite being the unranked team against the ranked team.  Oddsmakers are definitely tipping their hand.  It’s worth noting that Ohio State beat Maryland 91-69 at home last year as 5-point favorites.  Getting them as only 2.5-point favorites here is a huge value and one of my favorite bets in the Big Ten this season. 

The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Ohio State is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games after having lost three of its last four games.  The Buckeyes are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover four of their last five ATS.  Chris Holtmann is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as an underdog in all games he has coached.  Holtmann is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus game as the coach of the Buckeyes.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +16 

The Santa Clara Broncos have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their two losses came on the road to Gonzaga and BYU, and they easily covered in a 6-point loss at BYU as 13-point dogs. 

It’s not like their seven wins have been all against weak competition, either, during this stretch.  They beat USC by 10 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Washington State by 8 as 8-point dogs, and topped San Diego by 12 as 6-point dogs.  With how well they are playing, they certainly should not be catching 16 points to St. Mary’s. 

The Gaels have notoriously competed with Gonzaga for WCC supremacy over the years.  But this St. Mary’s team is way down, and it’s probably the worst team that they’ve had under Randy Bennett that I can remember.  The Gaels are just 11-7 this season.  They have home losses to Harvard and UC-Irvine, and road losses to Western Kentucky, San Francisco and Utah State.  Santa Clara is more than capable of hanging with them. 

St. Mary’s is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-7 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Santa Clara is 7-0 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  The Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Roll with Santa Clara Thursday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They return home following a tough six-game road trip in which they managed to pull off two upsets at Phoenix and at San Antonio.  And now they’ve had two full days to recover and rest. 

They have also had extra time to get ready for revenge on Sacramento.  The Hornets lost to the Kings on the 5th game of that trip 97-104 on January 12th just five days ago.  Well, they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Portland the previous night, so it wasn’t a good spot for them.  This is a great spot for the Hornets now. 

The Hornets are 14-8 at home this season, while the Kings are 9-11 on the road.  The Hornets have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings with the Kings.  And given the chance at quick revenge here tonight, I fully expect Kemba Walker and company to get the job done at home. 

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Sacramento is 16-39-3 ATS in its last 58 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.