20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orland Magic are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two losses were explainable as they lost to the Pacers in OT after beating them by 16 the game prior in a revenge spot.  And they lost on the road at Memphis in the 2nd of a back-to-back after upsetting Toronto on the road the night before.

Now the Magic are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday.  A big reason they are playing so well right now is they are as healthy as they have been in a long time, and this is a young team with a ton of talent.  They are forming chemistry with Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Terrance Ross, Markelle Fultz and Chuma Okeke.  They will have all of these guys available tonight with the exception of perhaps Suggs, who is questioable.

The Suns are decimated by injuries right now that they cannot possibly overcome.  They are without three of their top five scorers in Devin Booker (25.6 PPG), Chris Paul (14.9 PPG, 10.7 APG) and Cameron Johnson (12.8 PPG).  It's no wonder they are just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only wins coming at home against the short-handed Blazers and the struggling Knicks on a buzzer-beater.  They should not be 6.5-point road favorites with these three guys out tonight.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Pacers OVER 222.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 15-4 OVER in their last 19 games overall.  They have scored 112 or more points in 15 of those 19 games.  They have allowed 110 or more points in 18 of their last 21 games.

The Pacers are forming some chemistry with newcomers Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield and now have Malcolm Brogdon healthy.  They are great on offense with these guys, but they remain terrible on defense and don't have a rim protector.  They rank 26th in defensive efficiency this season.

Speaking of rim protectors, the Cavaliers will be without center Jarrett Allen tonight.  That's a big blow for them defensively as Allen averages 10.8 rebounding and 1.3 blocks per game and is one of the best defenders in the NBA.  They will have to go small ball tonight, which will help us cash this OVER ticket.

These teams just played on February 11th with the Cavaliers winning 120-113  for 233 combined points.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Cavaliers last seven games as road favorites.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pacers last six games as home underdogs.  The OVER is 20-6 in Pacers last 26 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NC State/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4.5

The Clemson Tigers played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games overall with upset wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, two NCAA Tournament contenders.  They also beat Boston College by 10 on the road and Georgia Tech at home.

Now the Tigers should stay hot against an NC State team that is just ready for their season to be over.  The Wolfpack have gone 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with four straight losses by 8 points or more.  They lost by 8 to Boston College at home, by 10 to UNC at home, by 25 to Wake Forest on the road and by 13 to Florida State on the road.

Clemson won 70-65 at NC State in their lone meeting this season.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  NC State is 1-13 ATS after a game with 9 or fewer assists this season.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game. NC State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These five trends combine for a 42-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -14.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall and quietly playing some of the best basketball in the NBA right now.  They have won three straight by 14 points or more coming in and I think they win by 15-plus tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.

They take on a struggling Blazers team that is getting blown out on a regular basis.  Indeed, the Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing at home to the Warriors by 37, at home to the Nuggets by 32 and on the road to the Suns by 30 despite the Suns playing without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker.  They also lost to the Timberwolves by 14 last time out.

The problem for the Blazers right now is injuries and they might just be tanking.  They are without Damian Lillard, Nassir Little, Joe Ingles, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow and Eric Bledsoe.  The only decent player they had healthy was Anfernee Simons, but he just suffered a quad injury against the Timberwolves and is out for this rematch.  He had 38 points in that game and they are going to be completely lost without him.

Portland is 1-11 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in home games with a total of 230 or higher this season.  The Timberwolves are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Portland.  Take the Timberwolves Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I have been riding them for most of this streak, and I'm going to continue riding them tonight.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.  They are a young, talented team that is forming chemistry with Grant, Cunningham, Bey and Bagley all playing well.

The Pistons upset the Celtics as 12.5-point road underdogs, upset the Cavaliers as 6-point home underdogs, upset the Hornets as 10-point road underdogs, upset the Raptors as 8-point road underdogs and upset the Pacers as 3-point home underdogs.  They nearly beat the Celtics again as 12.5-point home underdogs and only lost to the Wizards by 3 as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Now the Pistons are catching 7.5 points at home against an Atlanta Hawks team that plays no defense.  The Hawks rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  That's why they cannot be trusted to lay numbers like this, and it's also why they have been a huge disappointment this season with a losing record after making the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

Atlanta is 10-21 ATS in road games this season.  The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in road games after winning two of their last three games this season.  The Hawks are 18-42 ATS in their last 60 games following a road win by 3 points or less.  Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland State ML -105

This veteran Cleveland State team that won the Horizon League Tournament last year and returned all five starters this year is likely to win the tournament again.  They have to get by Wright State, and I like their chances considering they are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Wright State this season with a 10-point home win and a 4-point road win.

Teams that win the first two meetings of the season go on to win the 3rd meeting in the conference tournament at a very high clip.  It's well over 70% of the time, and getting the Vikings as a PK here is an absolute gift, especially since they are a veteran team and own the Raiders.

Cleveland State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following two consecutive games where their opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Raiders are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  Wright State is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Cleveland State Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Nuggets UNDER 229

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing elite defense which has been key to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run with four straight blowout victories.  They have allowed 102 or fewer points in all four games and an average of just 95.5 points per game.  This total is set way too high with how well they are playing defensively.

The Nuggets are a solid defensive team that has allowed 111 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games overall.  These are two teams that play at slow tempos too as the Pelicans rank 22nd in pace while the Nuggets rank 21st.  We've seen that play out in recent meetings between these teams.  

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings as the Nuggets and Pelicans have combined for 226 or fewer points at the end of regulation in all eight meetings.  They have combined for 210, 218 and 221 points at the end of regulation in three meetings this season.  So this will be their 4th meeting this season, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Pelicans last 11 road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Pelicans last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Denver.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State -6

It's safe to say the Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them as four of those losses came on the road and a narrow home loss to Illinois.  They also upset Purdue at home for their lone victory.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Maryland Terrapins.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three of those wins coming at home and the other being a road win at Nebraska, the worst team in the Big Ten.  Their lone loss came by 10 points at Indiana.

It's Senior Day and the Spartans are playing to assure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  We'll get a big effort from them today, and it should be enough to cover this 6-point spread against a Maryland team that knows it will need to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the big dance as the Terrapins sit at 15-15 this season.

Plays on favorites (Michigan State) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Terrapins are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  

Note that the Spartans were 3.5-point road favorites at Maryland in their first meeting this season and are now 6-point home favorites, only a 2.5-point adjustment for home-court advantage which isn't big enough.  There's clearly value on the home team today based on recency bias.  Roll with Michigan State Sunday.

20* Loyola-Chicago/Drake MVC Championship No-Brainer on Loyola-Chicago -4.5

Loyola-Chicago has barely had to break a sweat in dismantling Bradley 66-50 and Northern Iowa 66-43 the last two days to coast into the MVC Championship Game.  They also got to play the early game yesterday and watch Drake play the late game, adding to their rest advantage.

Meanwhile, Drake is coming off a 79-78 (OT) win over Missouri State yesterday in the late game.  They just lost G D.J. Wilkins (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending injury and will be short-handed.  I don't give them much of a chance of even keeping this game competitive.

That's especially the case with the Ramblers playing with double-revenge after shockingly losing both regular season meetings to the Bulldogs.  Wilkins had 26 points combined in those two victories and will be missed here.

Drake is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Drake is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games as an underdog.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Ramblers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  Take Loyola-Chicago Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas A&M -2

The Texas A&M Aggies have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight wins by double-digits.  That includes an 87-71 road win at Alabama as 10-point underdogs to improve to 19-11 this season.

Now the Aggies want to continue making their case with a home win on Senior Day against the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament.  They are coming off an OT home loss to Auburn in which they blew a late lead, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat here.

Texas A&M is 12-4 at home this season while Mississippi State is just 1-8 SU in true road games with its lone win coming at lowly Missouri by 2 points.  The Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* 76ers/Heat NBA No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

The Miami Heat are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall with their lone losses coming to the Mavericks by 8 at home and the Bucks by 1 on the road.  They managed to beat the Nets and Kevin Durant without Jimmy Butler and PJ Tucker.  Both should be back tonight after resting on the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game.

While the Heat come in on one days' rest, the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a comeback 125-119 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 7.5-point favorites last night.  Now they have to travel to Miami and will be a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey and James Harden all played more than 35 minutes last night.

Miami is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Philadelphia.  The Heat are 20-5 ATS after going under the total in their previous game this season.  Miami is 24-7 ATS vs. poor pressure teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -13.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves will have no problem putting away the Portland Trail Blazers by 14-plus points to cover this big number Saturday.  The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they were allowed to rest their starters in the 4th quarter due to their 138-101 blowout of the Thunder.  They could get Anthony Edwards back tonight as well.

Either way, the Timberwolves should roll tonight and still be fresh after having two days off prior to that Thunder game.  They take on a struggling Blazers team that is getting blown out on a regular basis.  Indeed, the Blazers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing at home to the Warriors by 37, at home to the Nuggets by 32 and on the road to the Suns by 30 despite the Suns playing without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker.

The problem for the Blazers right now is injuries and they might just be tanking.  They are without Damian Lillard, Nassir Little, Joe Ingles, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow and Eric Bledsoe.  The only decent player they have healthy right now is Anfernee Simons, and he cannot carry this team by himself.

Portland is 1-10 ATS when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Timberwolves are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites, including 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.  Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +13

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Georgetown Hoyas and their 6-23 record which includes an 0-18 mark in Big East play.  That's why it has been a great time to 'buy low' on the Hoyas here down the stretch and they have rewarded backers for doing so.

Indeed, the Hoyas are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with losses at Marquette by 11, at Villanova by 8, to DePaul at home by 3, to UConn at home by 9 and at Seton Hall by 5.  Those are some of the best teams in the Big East and the Hoyas took them all to the wire.

Now the Hoyas are catching 13 points against a struggling Xavier team that is feeling the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with two losses to St. John's by 15 and 13 points, an 11-point road loss at UConn and a 16-point home loss to Seton Hall.  They have no business being this heavily favored today.

Each of the last nine meetings between Xavier and Georgetown have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Hoyas pertaining to this 13-point spread.  TheMusketeers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -2.5

After dropping four of their last six games to fall to 23-7 this season, the Wyoming Cowboys will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs.  They really need this win to lock up their spot in the NCAA Tournament, and they'll be highly motivated to get it at home on Senior Day in front of a great crowd.

Wyoming is 13-1 at home this season and winning by 15.6 points per game.  With that home record, we are getting the Cowboys pretty cheap here given the circumstances.  They face a struggling Fresno State team that is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with the two wins coming against Air Force and New Mexico.

Wyoming is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after losing four or five of its last six games.  Fresno State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference road loss.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Wyoming Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +3

Oklahoma State will serve a postseason ban this season.  They won't even be able to play in the Big 12 Tournament.  That means this will be the final game of the season for the Cowboys Saturday as they host Texas Tech.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory to close out their campaign.

Coach Mike Boynton has been impressed with his team and how they have handled themselves this season knowing they wouldn't be playing in the postseason.  And they have clearly been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch knowing their season is about over.

Oklahoma State beat Kansas State at home then lost to Baylor by 2 at home in OT.  They went on the road and went to OT against Oklahoma before falling in another heartbreaker.  I expected them to be flat against Iowa State, but they put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a 53-36 road win as 4-point dogs.

Oklahoma State is a poor man's Texas Tech as they play great defense and struggle on offense at times.  I think they can beat the Red Raiders, who lost outright at TCU and struggled to beat Kansas State at home in their last two games.  The Red Raiders aren't going to win the Big 12 so they don't have a lot to play in this regular season finale.

Oklahoma State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +10

Wichita State has no business being a double-digit favorite against East Carolina Saturday.  The Shockers have just one win in their last 14 games by more than 10 points.  They sit at 15-12 this season and simply want to get onto the AAC Tournament and won't be that motivated to put away the Pirates by margin.

East Carolina is playing some of its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  The Pirates have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset road wins over both Tulsa and South Florida and a 3-point loss at UCF as 9-point dogs in their three road games during this stretch.

East Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Wichita State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +8

Louisiana Tech is simply catching too many points today against the UAB Blazers.  The Bulldogs are 21-8 this season with just two losses by double-digits.  They don't lose by margin often, and they won't be losing by margin Saturday.

The Bulldogs want revenge from a 76-83 home loss to UAB in which the Blazers went 12-of-24 (50%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bulldogs just took the best team in C-USA to the wire in North Texas in a 49-56 road loss.  They can certainly hang with UAB in this spot.

Louisiana Tech is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 60 points or less in their previous game.  The Blazers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -3

The Virginia Cavaliers are trying to make the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch and into the ACC Tournament.  This is a must-win game for them against the Louisville Cardinals after losing back-to-back heartbreakers against Duke by 4 and Florida State by 1 at the buzzer.

But the Cavaliers have now had a week off having last played on February 26th.  They will be rested and ready to go and fully focused and prepared to take down this struggling Louisville team on Saturday.

The Cardinals are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone win coming at home against Clemson.  They appear to have quit in their last two games by losing to Wake Forest by 22 and Virginia Tech by 32.  I think getting the Cavaliers as short 3-point favorites here is a gift.

Louisville is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Virginia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  The Cardinals are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have been a different team since the All-Star Break.  They are starting to form chemistry with newcomer CJ McCollum along with Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas.  They are coming off three of their best games of the season and are fully capable of upsetting the Jazz tonight.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Suns 117-102 as 6.5-point road dogs, the Lakers 123-95 as 1-point road dogs and the Kings 125-95 as 6.5-point home favorites.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight so they'll be rested and ready to go.

The Utah Jazz just needed overtime to beat the Rockets last time out as 15-point favorites.  They squeaked by the short-handed Suns by 4 and the Mavericks by 5 while also getting upset by the Lakers by 5 in their last four games.  They are vulnerable right now, and I expect the Pelicans to upset them at home, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Utah is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 Friday games.  The Jazz are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Friday games.  The Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 35-17-4 ATS in their last 56 games overall.  They have been a consistent money maker this season no matter who has been in the lineup.  They overcame injuries in a 129-125 win at Indiana as an 8-point dog and a 119-107 win at Denver as a 14.5-point dog in two of their last three games.

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be 9.5-point road favorites over the Thunder tonight.  They were 9-point home favorites and 5.5-point road favorites in their first two meetings this season, so we are getting some value with the Thunder.  And it's worth noting the Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards (21.4 PPG), who scored 24 and 22 points in those two meetings with the Thunder earlier this season.

Oklahoma City is 20-8 ATS when playing with double revenge and two straight losses against an opponent this season.  The Timberwolves are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Thunder are 23-8-3 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8.5

I faded the Raptors last night with the Pistons +9 in their outright upset.  I'm fading the Raptors again tonight in this 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days as this will be their third 2nd of a back-to-back situation since the All-Star Break.

It's safe to say the Raptors are fatigued right now and it's showing in their play.  They are just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS since the break with blowout losses by 32 to the Hornets and by 27 to the Hawks as well as that upset loss to the Pistons.  They also only beat the short-handed Nets by a single point as 9-point favorites.  Their only win and cover also came against the short-handed Nets.

The Magic have been much more competitive since the break in going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their only loss coming to the Pacers in OT after beating the Pacers by 16 the game prior, so it was a letdown spot for them.  They also beat the Rockets by 8 as 3.5-point favorites.  And while the Magic are mostly healthy, the Raptors are without OG Anunoby (17.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and could be without Fred VanVleet (21.4 PPG, 6.9 APG) again tonight.

Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Toronto is 0-7 ATS in home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley/Loyola-Chicago UNDER 131.5

The MVC Tournament is known for UNDERS due to the poor shooting back ground in St. Louis.  This is my favorite UNDER of all four games in the tournament today between Bradley and Loyola-Chicago because they are two of the best defensive teams in the conference and play at slow tempos.

Loyola-Chicago ranks 316th in adjusted tempo while Bradley ranks 174th.  The Ramblers rank 49th in defensive efficiency while the Braves rank 60th.  These teams combined for 132 points at the end of regulation in their first meeting and 129 points in their 2nd meeting this season and both shot well at 43.1% or better in both games.  I think this 3rd and final meeting will be the lowest scoring yet.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Braves last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 24-7 in Braves last 31 Friday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Ramblers last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -1.5

The Michigan Wolverines have been just fine without Juwan Howard.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS without him as they have veteran Phil Martelli manning the sidelines, who is one of the best assistants in the country.  They beat Rutgers by 9 and Michigan State by 17 while also losing to Illinois.

Now the Wolverines have put themselves back in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  They still need this game against Iowa like blood, and I fully expect them to get it tonight.  It will be Senior Night with their final home game and a tremendous atmosphere.  Getting them laying this short number at home is a gift as they are 12-6 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home meetings with Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are getting a lot of love right now after going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule with wins over Minnesota, Maryland, Nebraska (twice) and Northwestern during this stretch.  Their lone loss?  A 79-84 home loss to Michigan.  

That was a rare win for the road team as the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's also worth noting Iowa is expected to be without a key player in Patrick McCaffery (10.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) tonight, the coach's son.  He had 13 points and 5 rebounds against the Wolverines in that first meeting.  Roll with Michigan Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +9

The Detroit Pistons are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset wins at Boston as 12-point dogs, at home against Cleveland as 5-point road and on the road at Charlotte as 10-point dogs.  They only lost by 9 as 12.5-point dogs in the rematch with the Celtics and by 3 at Washington as 3.5-point dogs.

I like the talent on this Detroit team and they are one of the few teams with a poor record that shows up every night, which has made them a money maker for me and my clients and other backers alike here down the stretch.  I'm certainly grabbing the 9 points with them with how poorly the Raptors are playing right now.

Indeed, the Raptors are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost to the Pelicans by 30, the Hawks by 27 and the Hornets by 32.  They only beat the Nets by a single point as 8-point favorites last time out, and that was a Nets team missing all their key players.  They do have a win at Minnesota, but the Timberwolves were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they were not.  Both Fred VanVleet (21.4 PPG, 6.9 APG) and OG Anunoby (17.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) are questionable for the Raptors tonight.

The Pistons simply own the Raptors.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with five outright upsets as underdogs with three of those wins coming by 14 points or more.  Detroit is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls PK

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They had won six straight before running into two of the best teams in the NBA in losses to the Grizzlies and Heat in their last two games.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be rested and ready to go, plus motivated to get back on track.

They take on a struggling Atlanta Hawks team that is 5-7 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Hawks are without John Collins, and they could be without Trae Young, who suffered an ankle injury in their 98-107 loss to the Celtics on Tuesday.  He was able to return, but he was limping and not the same after coming back in.  He will still be hobbled even if he decides to play tonight.

The Bulls simply own the Hawks.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with Atlanta this season with two wins by double-digits.  It should be more of the same tonight and I know the Bulls won't be overlooking them since they are coming off two straight losses.

Chicago is 40-18-1 ATS in its last 59 games as a favorite.  The Bulls are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Chicago is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Bulls Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +16.5

The Temple Owls have been grossly undervalued in conference play this season.  They have gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  That includes upset road wins over Tulsa, UCF and Cincinnati as well as upset home wins over Cincinnati and SMU.

Keep in mind the Owls also only lost at home to Houston by 5 and on the road at SMU by 8.  They are almost always competitive, and now they want revenge from that 61-66 home loss to the Cougars in their first meeting this season.  I have no doubt they can stay within 16.5 points on the road in the rematch.

I question Houston's motivation tonight after clinching the American Athletic regular season title with their win over Cincinnati on Tuesday.  They have a road game with Memphis on deck where they will want revenge, too.  Now the Cougars will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days while this will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Owls, which is a huge rest advantage.

Temple is 8-1 ATS following a home win this season.  The Owls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Temple is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Temple has just one loss by double-digits in its last 15 games and that was a 14-point loss at Memphis, making for a 15-0 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 16.5-point spread.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -13

The Houston Rockets are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have lost 14 of their last 15 as well.  You just can't trust them to show up on a nightly basis, and that's especially the case tonight given this horrendous spot for them.

The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They just lost 100-113 at home to the Clippers last night, and now I expect them to get routed by the Utah Jazz just as they have been twice already this season.  They Jazz have beaten them by 34 at home and by 31 on the road in two of their three meetings this season.

Utah is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now since getting Rudy Gobert back from injury to go along with Donovan Mitchell.  The Jazz are fully healthy and dangerous.  They are 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are also rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest after last playing on Sunday.

The Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Houston.  The Rockets are 21-53 ATS in their last 74 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Houston is 16-44 ATS in its last 60 home games.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest.  Houston is 1-9 ATS in home games off a home loss this season.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers are starting to form some chemistry with the newcomers in Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and company.  They have been competitive in six of their last seven games only once losing by double-digits.  They played close games against Cleveland, Minnesota and Milwaukee and also beat Boston outright by 21.

Of course, the Pacers followed up that upset win over the Celtics by losing 103-119 in Orlando the next night in a predictable letdown spot on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now the Pacers get their shot at revenge on the Magic here just two days later, and I expect them to get it.

Malcolm Brogdon rested in that 2nd of a back-to-back but is expected to be back in the lineup tonight.  He leads the team in scoring at 18.5 points per game and also averages 5.8 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game.  He and Haliburton will make a formidable duo in the backcourt for the Pacers the rest the way provided they are healthy and playing together.

Orlando is 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 home games.  The Magic are 19-47-3 ATS in their last 69 games as home underdogs.  Indiana is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Orlando.  The Magic are 0-8 ATS in after covering three of their last four ATS this season.  I'll gladly back the more motivated Pacers tonight at basically a pick 'em price.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -4

The Iowa State Cyclones have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were getting dangerously close to the bubble after a four-game losing streak prior to these wins.  Now they will be motivated to win their final home game on Senior Night to assure their spot in the big dance.

They host a reeling Oklahoma State team that was just punched in the gut with back-to-back overtime losses to Baylor and Oklahoma.  I think there will be a hangover effect from those two defeats, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight.

The Cowboys sit at 13-15 this season and know they will not be going to the NCAA Tournament without winning the Big 12 Tournament at this point.  So I question their motivation in their final two games of the regular season.

Oklahoma State is 2-8 SU & 2-6-2 ATS in true road games this season.  The Cowboys are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Davidson -7

The Davidson Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have a chance to clinch at least a share of the Atlantic 10 title with a win over George Mason.  It is also Senior Night as it will be their final home game.  It's going to be a great atmosphere for the Wildcats to say the least with what's at stake.

That home-court advantage will carry the Wildcats to a blowout victory over George Mason tonight.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season.  They have won four straight games by double-digits coming in, including three straight by 21 or more points.

George Mason is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall.  The Patriots are 4-10 SU in all games played away from home this season.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Davidson has won the last two by 15 and 32 points.

The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  Davidson is 7-0 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 12-1 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Davidson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 March home games.  Bet Davidson Wednesday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin ESPN No-Brainer on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers want a Big Ten title.  The only way to get it is to beat Wisconsin tonight as they trail the Badgers by one game with two games to go.  Adding to their motivation is that they will be out for revenge from a 69-74 home loss to the Badgers as 12.5-point favorites in their first meeting.

So this line has been adjusted a whopping 10 points for home-court advantage with Purdue only a 2.5-point road favorite in the rematch.  That's too much, and it just shows how overvalued the Badgers are right now off four straight wins against soft competition.

Wisconsin has been extremely fortunate in close games in going 13-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  Their record is inflated because of it, and they are nowhere near as good as their record would suggest.  I think they get exposed tonight by a Purdue team that is better everywhere and motivated to boot.

The Badgers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after going under the total in their previous game.  The Boilermakers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Tuesday games.  Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Rockets UNDER 229

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and boy are the Clippers and Rockets familiar with one another right now.  This will be their 3rd meeting in two weeks tonight and they will be playing each other for a 2nd consecutive time and their 3rd time in 4 games.

The first meeting was a shootout as both teams played little defense just wanting to get to the All-Star Break in a 142-111 win by the Clippers.  But they came back for just 197 combined points on Sunday in a 99-98 win by the Clippers.  That game was played at a much slower tempo, and this one will be too.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams with a total of 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Clippers last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Houston.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Hawks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

This total has been inflated due to the Celtics going over the total in five straight and the Hawks going over the total in three of their last four and seven of their last 10.  There's definitely value with the UNDER tonight.

That's especially the case considering familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and the Hawks and Celtics will be meeting for the 2nd time in just over two weeks here.  Boston won 105-95 for just 200 combined points on February 13th with a total of 223.  Now they have set the total even higher in the rematch, which makes zero sense.

In fact, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 200, 198 and 209 points.  All three meetings took place this season, so this will be the 4th and final meeting.  Again, familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Boston ranks 23rd in pace while Atlanta ranks 16th.  Boston ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency, making them a great UNDER candidate moving forward.  The Hawks have been much better defensively since Clint Capela has been available.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games as home favorites.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on South Carolina -6.5

Frank Martin has yet another team playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Don't look now but the Gamecocks are 17-11 this season and making a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

The Gamecocks have been very impressive in winning four of their last five games.  They beat both Georgia and Ole Miss on the road and upset both LSU and Mississippi State at home.  Their lone loss came at Alabama.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 14 days today and should put forth another big effort on Senior Night.

They should handle the Missouri Tigers, who are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 19 points or more.  They have fallen to 4-12 in SEC play compared to 8-8 for South Carolina.  The Tigers appear to just be playing out the string, and I don't see them putting any extra effort into winning this game tonight.  It will be the 5th game in 12 days for the Tigers as well.

Missouri is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +12.5

You're definitely paying a tax to back the Texas Tech Red Raiders at this point in the season after opening 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in Big 12 play.  It's time to 'sell high' on them tonight as they should not be laying this big of a number against Kansas State.  This is their largest favorite role of the conference season.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost three straight with two of those losses coming by a combined 4 points.  I like this Kansas State team as they are a poor man's version of Texas Tech.  They are gritty defensively and can struggle at times on offense.

We saw the Wildcats match up well with the Red Raiders in their 62-51 home win as 4.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they come back as 12.5-point road underdogs in the rematch, an 8-point adjustment that is too big for home-court advantage.

The Wildcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Kansas State is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  Take Kansas State Monday.

20* Baylor/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 63-80 road loss at Baylor on February 12th two weeks ago.  Now the Longhorns get to face the Bears at home this time around where they have been a much better team.

Indeed, the Longhorns are 16-2 at home this season including a win over Kansas.  Their two losses came by a combined 7 points.  I think the wrong team is favored here given the terrible spot for the Bears and their injuries right now.

Baylor is in a letdown spot off its 80-70 home win over Kansas on Saturday.  The Bears have struggled on the road recently with losses to Alabama by 9, Kansas by 24 and Texas Tech by 10.  They also needed OT to beat Oklahoma State and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

Texas is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Texas Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Heat UNDER 224.5

The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls have the two best records in the Eastern Conference.  First place is on the line tonight when the Bulls travel to face the Heat.  I usually look to back the UNDER in this big games between two of the top teams in the NBA because the intensity level is higher, thus the defensive effort is stronger.

Recent head-to-head history also favors the UNDER in a big way.  Indeed, the Bulls and Heat have combined for 215 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  They have also combined for 224 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings, making for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total.

Kyle Lowry will be out for the Heat tonight, which will hurt them on offense as he runs the show.  Look for the Heat to slow it down a lot and run the offense through Jimmy Butler, which will help our UNDER.  The Heat have been a much better defensive team since getting Butler and Bam Adebayo back healthy to go along with PJ Tucker.  Those are three of the best defenders in the NBA today.  They have allowed 111 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Bulls last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five games overall.  Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Miami) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days in a game involving two good teams that win between 60% & 75% of their games are 111-47 (70.3%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +8.5

I faded the Boston Celtics yesterday with success and I'm fading them again today for many of the same reasons.  The Celtics are now 6-0 in their last six road games while outscoring opponents by a combined 157 points.  They set an NBA record in their five-game road winning streak outscoring opponents by 148 points.

Simply put, the Celtics are overvalued on the road right now after making history.  They are also a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  That's going to make it hard for them to go on the road and put Indiana away by 9-plus points, which is what it is going to take to cover this inflated number.

The Pacers will be playing just their 2nd game since the All-Star Break.  They formed some chemistry over the break with their new players in Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield joining a now healthy Malcolm Brogdon and company.  They have been competitive in five straight games as all five were decided by 9 points or fewer, and they will be competitive tonight given the poor spot for the Celtics.

Indiana is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1

The Temple Owls have been grossly undervalued in conference play this season.  They have gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  That includes 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with their only loss coming to Houston by 5 as 12.5-point dogs.  They upset Cincinnati and SMU at home during this stretch.

Now the Owls want revenge on Tulane after losing 83-92 on the road to the Green Wave on February 12th just two weeks ago.  They will have their revenge at home this tie around against a Tulane team that is 3-6 SU in true road games this season.  The Owls basically just have to win this game to cover with this small spread.

Temple is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Tulane is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  Take Temple Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on George Washington +10

George Washington has quietly gone 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Colonials have upset road wins over Duquesne by 21, UMass by 9 and Rhode Island by 2 during this stretch.  They should not be catching 10 points here against a George Mason team they already beat 77-76 at home back on January 17th when they weren't playing as well as they are now.

George Mason has gone the other direction, going just 2-6 SU in its last eight games overall after a hot start to the season.  The Patriots have won their two games during this stretch by just 3 and 5 points.  In fact, the Patriots haven't won any of their last 14 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Colonials pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colonials are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Roll with George Washington Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -1.5

Oregon finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and in need of wins here down the stretch to get into the big dance after digging themselves a hole early in the season.  But the Ducks have upset UCLA twice this season and could use another Top 25 win here against USC.

The Ducks go for the season sweep of the Trojans after winning 79-69 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country and that was on display against UCLA on Thursday.  It will be a packed house in Eugene for Senior Night and with what's at stake, providing an excellent atmosphere for another big effort from the Ducks.

This is a bad spot for USC.  The Trojans will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days after needing double-OT to survive a 94-91 win at Oregon State as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday.  Five players played at least 37 minutes for the Trojans in that contest.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ducks tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and struggling here down the stretch.  I trust Dana Altman and the Ducks in this must-win game on Senior Night.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

15* Boise State/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +1

The UNLV Rebels are playing as well as anyone in the Mountain West right now.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes upset road wins over Colorado State, Fresno State and Nevada as well as another upset home win over Colorado State.

In fact, the Rebels have been outright dominant in their last three home games.  They beat Colorado State by 21, Air Force by 34 and Nevada by 11.  Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 63-69 road loss at Boise State as 8.5-point underdogs on February 11th just two weeks ago.

Boise State has been overvalued for weeks now in going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I don't think they should be favored on the road with how well UNLV is playing right now and in this revenge spot.

The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Boise State attempted 22 more free throws and made 19 more than UNLV in that first meeting.  That isn't likely to happen again.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

25* Conference USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Middle Tennessee -2.5

Middle Tennessee has been grossly undervalued.  The Blue Raiders are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the top two teams in the conference in North Texas and UAB.

Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home, going 14-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17 points per game on the season.  Amazingly, 13 of those 14 wins have come by 9 points or more.

We are definitely getting the Blue Raiders at a discount as only 2.5-point home favorites over Western Kentucky today.  This is Senior Day, so they will not only be motivated for their seniors, but they want to cap off a perfect 15-0 season at home in the worst way.  You can bet their fans will be raucous for this one as they want to see it too and it will be a tremendous atmosphere.

Western Kentucky is getting too much love after winning seven straight coming in against the worst of Conference USA in Charlotte (twice), Old Dominion (twice), FAU, UTEP and UTSA.  Each of their last five wins came by 10 points or fewer, too.  Now they take a big step up in class here against a Middle Tennessee team that already beat them 93-85 on the road in their first meeting this season.  That was their last defeat.

Western Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Middle Tennessee is 11-2-2 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Blue Raiders are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +11

Frank Martin has yet another team playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Don't look now but the Gamecocks are 17-10 this season and making a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Gamecocks have been very impressive in winning each of their last four games.  They beat both Georgia and Ole Miss on the road and upset both LSU and Mississippi State at home.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 11 days today and should put forth another big effort.

It should be good enough to cover this inflated 11-point spread against the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The Crimson Tide are 18-10 this season with just one more win than the Gamecocks.  They have been grossly overvalued all season and continue to be here as double-digits favorites.

Alabama is 3-16-1 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  In fact, they have won just two of their last 21 games by more than 10 points, and those were 13 and 14-point wins.  They aren't blowing teams out, and they won't be putting away South Carolina by double-digits with how well the Gamecocks are playing right now.  Alabama is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +2

Northern Iowa wants revenge from its worst loss of the season 58-85 at Loyola-Chicago on February 13th.  The Ramblers shot 64.8% from the field in that game including 14-of-26 from 3-point range as there was nothing the Panthers could do.  It was simply Loyola-Chicago's day.

But I like their chances at revenge here considering the Panthers are 7-1 SU at home this season in conference play with their lone loss coming to Drake in overtime.  That's the same Drake team that has beaten Loyola-Chicago twice this season as well.  Northern Iowa's last four home games were very impressive as they went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while beating Illinois State by 15, Bradley by 13, Southern Illinois by 9 and Missouri State by 20.

Loyola-Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  They failed to cover in narrow wins over Valparaiso (by 2) and Illinois State, lost outright at Bradley and at Drake, and also failed to cover at Southern Illinois in a 5-point win.  Home-court advantage has been huge for the top teams in the MVC and that is the case with these two squads.  It's also Senior Day for the Panthers, and first place is on the line in the MVC as the winner takes all the marbles.

The Ramblers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +4

I love the spot for the Washington Huskies tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 70-78 road loss at Washington State as 10-point underdogs on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here three days later and come back as 4-point home underdogs in the rematch.

This is a game I fully expect the Huskies to win outright.  They nearly upset the Cougars on the road as that game was closer than the final score would indicate.  There's a decent chance the Huskies get Emmitt Matthews Jr. back from a concussion for this one as well.

Washington has been much better at home than on the road this season.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in Pac-12 home games.  Their lone loss came to Arizona, which is one of the best teams in the country.  They have handled the teams on their level, and the Cougars are definitely on their level.

Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT's per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Huskies are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Washington Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -3.5

Home-court advantage has been huge in the SEC this season among the top teams.  That's why Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite over #3 Auburn today, and I think it's warranted.  The Volunteers are 14-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.0 points per game.  That includes a 13-point win over Kentucky in their last home game.

Auburn has been vulnerable on the road recently.  The Tigers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The two wins both were concerning as they beat Missouri 55-54 as a 12.5-point favorite and Georgia 74-72 as a 16-point favorite.  They also lost outright as favorites at Arkansas and at Florida.

Auburn is now 1-8 ATS in its last nine February road games.  Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Volunteers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Tigers.  The home team is 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas CBS No-Brainer on Arkansas -2

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the hottest teams in the country.  They are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama by a single point, 67-68.  They have beaten Tennessee and Auburn at home recently and now they'll take down Kentucky Saturday.

The Wildcats have lost to both of those teams that Arkansas beat at home on the road.  The Wildcats lost 71-80 at Auburn and 63-76 at Tennessee recently.  It will be a raucous atmosphere in Fayetteville for this one, and I think we are getting the Razorbacks at a discount as only 2-point home favorites with how well they are playing right now.

Kentucky could be without their top two guards in Tyty Washington Jr. (12.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Sahvir Wheeler (9.6 PPG, 7.1 APG).  That's bad news facing a guard-oriented Arkansas lineup.  Eric Musselman has the Razorbacks playing their best basketball of the season once again late in the year.  

The Razorbacks are 15-1 at home this season.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games attempting 10 or more FT than their opponents.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

The Detroit Pistons have won outright as underdogs in their last two games and I've been on them for both.  They beat the Celtics 112-111 as 12.5-point road underdogs and the Cavaliers 106-103 as 6-point home underdogs.  I'm certainly backing them again here catching 11.5 points against the Celtics at home this time around.

Oddsmakers have only adjusted this game a single point.  The Pistons go from being 12.5-point road dogs on February 16th in Boston to 11.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  Keep in mind they were also 10-point home dogs to the Celtics when they lost by 9 and covered on February 4th earlier this month as well.

Simply put, the Celtics are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to a 5-0 run on the road in which they have set an NBA record by outscoring opponents by a combined 148 points.  It is an incredible run, but now it's time for us to take advantage of this publicity and take the value with the Pistons at home today.

Boston is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games vs. poor rebounding teams that get outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game.  The Celtics are 11-25 ATS in their last 26 games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Celtics are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Pistons UNDER 216.5

I always like backing NBA UNDERS in morning/early afternoon games.  Players aren't use to playing at these early start times, and they tend to be sleep walking through these games.  This is a 12:10 EST start time in Detroit this afternoon as the Pistons host the Celtics.

But what I really like about this UNDER bet is the Celtics and Pistons are very familiar with one another.  In fact, it will be their 3rd meeting since a 102-93 road win by the Celtics on February 4th for just 195 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and these teams met against in the final game prior to the All-Star Break.  They combined to make 29-of-62 from 3-point range in that game and combined for 223 points and that's not going to happen again.

Boston is a great UNDER team because they rank just 24th in pace this season and 2nd in defensive efficiency.  They are 12th in offensive efficiency and struggle on that end at times.  They face a Pistons team that ranks 29th in offensive efficiency.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 38-18-1 in Celtics last 57 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia +10

The Florida Gators have no business being double-digit road favorites at Georgia in this sneaky rivalry.  The Gators are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and not playing well at all.  In fact, the Gators have won just one of their last 16 games by double-digits, making for a 15-1 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Georgia only lost 72-63 at Florida as 14.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch, which isn't a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage.  Plus, Georgia has only lost one of its last nine meetings with Florida by more than 10 points.

The Gators are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Georgia is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  There is a ton of value on the Bulldogs today.  Take Georgia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +22

San Jose State has gone 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The betting public has wanted nothing to do with this team because they have the worst record in the Mountain West.  But they have been competitive, especially when playing on the road this season.

Indeed, the Spartans are 8-4 ATS in true road games this season.  They have only lost one road game by more than 20 points this season and that was at Texas early in the year.  Ten of their 12 road losses have come by 16 points or less, including by 14 at Stanford, by 15 at Wyoming, by 8 at UNLV, by 16 at Utah State, by 16 at Boise State and by 9 at Nevada.

The Spartans already proved they could play with San Diego State at home, losing 62-72 as 16.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 22 points in the rematch on the road, which is too much.  This is a terrible spot for the Aztecs coming off a 1-point loss to Boise State and with Wyoming on deck.  This is a flat spot for them if I've ever seen one.

The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  San Jose State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  San Diego State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with San Jose State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5

The Phoenix Suns beat the Thunder 124-104 last night, but it was much closer than the final score would indicate.  It was a single-digit game in the closing minutes before a huge run by the Suns to put the game away.  That was a short-handed, terrible Thunder team as well.

Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after four of their five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.  They are without Chris Paul and Cameron Payne, their top two points guards.  They won't be better off in the long run without these two, and certainly not in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation.

The Pelicans went into the break playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They went 5-4 SU in their final nine games.  They made the trade for CJ McCollum, and he is teaming up well with Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas to make them far from pushovers here down the stretch.  Herbert Jones and Jaxson Hayes are also two underrated players for the Pelicans that are playing well.

Phoenix is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games after covering four or five of its last six against the spread this season.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* Heat/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -5

The Miami Heat are 0.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls for first place in the Eastern Conference.  They have put themselves in this position despite battling injuries to key players all season.  But now they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's starting to show with their play on the court.

Indeed, the Heat are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall with four wins by double-digits.  They should make easy work of the struggling New York Knicks, who are just 3-13 SU & 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall with eight losses by 9 points or more.

The Kemba Walker signing did not work as he has now been ruled out for the rest of the season and not because of an injury, but because of chemistry issues.  They are also without Derrick Rose and could be without both RJ Barrett and Nerlens Noel.

The Heat simply own the Knicks.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with seven of those wins coming by 6 points or more.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Knicks, and it will continue to be tonight with who they are missing and how healthy the Heat are coming out of the break.

Miami is 44-21 ATS in its last 65 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Heat are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  The Knicks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Miami is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games following a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +3.5

The Oregon Ducks need wins to make the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch.  They sit at 17-10 this season and have lost three of their last four.  But one of those was an impressive 81-84 loss at Arizona as 13-point dogs last time out.

Now the Ducks will be looking to sweep the season series with UCLA after upsetting them 84-81 as 9.5-point road dogs in their first meeting on January 13th.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and it will be a packed house in Eugene with No. 12 UCLA coming to town.

The Bruins have faltered on the road recently in going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four road games with their lone win coming at Stanford 79-70.  They were upset by both USC and Arizona State on the road and lost to Arizona by 10.  They are overvalued right now after three straight wins and covers at home coming in.

The Bruins are 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games as road favorites.  UCLA is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 conference road games.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings with both road wins coming in overtime.  Roll with Oregon Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -3

The Chicago Bulls are tied for 1st in the Eastern Conference coming out of the All-Star Break despite battling through injuries.  They come out of the break healthier with both Zach LaVine and Ayo Dosunmu expected to play as well as new acquisition Tristan Thompson.

The Bulls went into the break on a five-game winning streak without LaVine thanks to the play of DeMar DeRozan, who has made a great case for MVP this season.  They also got great play from Coby White and Nikola Vucevic.  With these three plus LaVine healthy coming out of the break, the Bulls are a force.

The Atlanta Hawks have been a huge disappointment this season at 28-30 after making the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  They continue to get too much respect from the books here coming out of the break as only 3-point road underdogs.  The Hawks are 11-17 SU & 10-18 ATS on the road this season.

Atlanta is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Bulls are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Chicago won 131-117 at home and 130-118 on the road in its two previous meetings with Atlanta this season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy coming out of the All-Star Break.  They are going to be a sneaky competitive team down the stretch and went into the break with an upset road win at Boston as 12.5-point underdogs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the surprise of the NBA this season at 35-23 SU & 34-22-2 ATS.  The word is out on them now and you aren't going to get many bargains backing the Cavaliers moving forward.

Injuries have caught up with the Cavaliers as they lost their final two games going into the break.  Now they come out of the break missing their most important player in All-Star Darius Garland (20.3 PPG, 8.0 APG) along with key acquisition Caris LeVert (18.2 PPG).  Those are their two leading scorers currently.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor offensive teams that score 108 or fewer points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 16-40-2 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Cleveland is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -6.5

Middle Tennessee has been grossly undervalued.  The Blue Raiders are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the top two teams in the conference in North Texas and UAB.

Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home, going 13-0 SU & 8-2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points per game on the season.  Amazingly, 12 of those 13 wins have come by 9 points or more.  So we are getting a discount with the Blue Raiders as only 6.5-point home favorites tonight.

Marshall has been a big disappointment this season at 11-17 SU & 7-17-2 ATS in 28 games.  The Thundering Herd are 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this season.  They are also 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS in conference play.  They stand little chance of even keeping this game competitive tonight.

Marshall is 1-9 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  Middle Tennessee is 16-3 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Marshall is 1-9 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Blue Raiders are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take Middle Tennessee Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +12

The Temple Owls have been flying under the radar since getting into conference play.  The Owls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games with upset wins over SMU, Cincinnati (twice) and UCF.  They also took Houston to the wire in a 5-point loss.

The Owls are clearly catching too many points tonight against the Memphis Tigers, who are getting a lot of respect now after winning six straight and covering five of those prior to their 57-73 upset road loss at SMU.  They were favored on the road at SMU and shouldn't have been, and now they are laying double-digits to an undervalued Temple team and shouldn't be.

The head-to-head history suggests this is too many points, too.  Amazingly, 14 of the last 15 meetings between Temple and Memphis have been decided by 12 points or fewer with the lone exception being a 14-point win.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 12-point spread.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a good team that wins between 60% and 80% of its games.  The Owls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as road underdogs of 9.5 to 12 points.  Temple is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take Temple Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +10.5

This is a massive sandwich spot for the SMU Mustangs.  They are coming off an upset home win over Memphis and have a road game at Houston on deck.  I don't expect their best effort tonight, and that will make it hard for them to cover this 10.5-point spread without their 'A' game.

SMU already beat Tulsa 74-69 on the road as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  That places the Golden Hurricane in revenge mode tonight.  I like how Tulsa has been playing of late with its last seven games all decided by 10 points or fewer.  That includes an upset win over Cincinnati and a road win at South Florida in two of their last three games.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  SMU is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games as home favorites.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in thier last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Golden Hurricane are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. good teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  Take Tulsa Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been undervalued all season.  They are 21-7 right now with a lot to play for trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  Expect a big effort from them tonight as they travel to face the Clemson Tigers.

Clemson is simply broken.  The Tigers have gone 0-6 SU in their last six games overall to fall to 4-12 in ACC play.  They are playing for nothing but pride down the stretch, and they aren't doing a very good job of it.

Clemson is coming off a 61-70 loss to a bad Louisville team last time out.  It hurt losing their best player in PJ Hall in the opening minutes to a foot injury.  Hall (15.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is now questionable to play tonight and it would be hard to see him healthy enough to go.

Wake Forest is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Wednesday road games.  The Demon Deacons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Tigers are 0-4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on South Carolina +2.5

Frank Martin has yet another team playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Don't look now but the Gamecocks are 16-10 this season and make a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.

The Gamecocks have been very impressive in winning each of their last three games.  They beat both Georgia and Ole Miss on the road and upset LSU at home.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 8 days today and should put forth another big effort as they look to get revenge from a 64-78 road loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting.

South Carolina is 10-4 SU at home this season.  They face a Mississippi State team that has really struggled on the road.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU in true road games this season with their lone win coming against one of the worst teams in the SEC in Missouri by 2 points.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a close conference win by 3 points or less.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with South Carolina Wednesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico +12.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New Mexico Lobos.  They have been blown out in their last two games with a 15-point home loss to Colorado State and a 16-point road loss at San Jose State to give the Spartans their first conference win of the season.  

Off that embarrassing defeat, I expect the Lobos to fire back with a big effort here against the Utah State Aggies.  The Lobos were playing very well prior to those couple games in going 6-1-1 ATS in their previous eight games.  The upset Wyoming at home and only lost to Colorado State, Wyoming, Fresno State and Boise State all by 8 points or fewer.

Now the Lobos will be out for revenge from an 87-90 home loss to Utah State as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They face an Aggies team playing their worst basketball of the season right now.  Utah State is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with three losses by double-digits.  They should not be double-digit favorites here with how they are playing right now.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Utah State is 1-7 ATS following a conference loss this season.  The Lobos are 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  New Mexico is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (New Mexico) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite when playing on Tuesday nights are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1997.  The value is too good to pass up on the Lobos off that loss to San Jose State and with revenge in mind.  Bet New Mexico Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They are coming off two blowout losses to Iowa and Maryland following their first conference victory of the season.  They had gone 5-1 ATS in their previous six games and were playing well.

I expect a big effort from the Huskers tonight as they have revenge in mind from a 63-87 home loss to Northwestern on February 5th just over two weeks ago.  The Wildcats shot 13-of-31 (41.9%) from 3-point range in that game and had a great shooting night.

I just can't see the Wildcats coming back motivated enough to beat Nebraska by 12-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated number.  They have lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota coming in.  And they were 3.5-point favorites in that first meeting and are 11.5-point favorites in the rematch.  This 8-point adjustment for home-court advantage is too much.

Northwestern is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following two or more consecutive losses.  The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Nebraska is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Wildcats are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/Texas Tech UNDER 130.5

Texas Tech ranks 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency this season and 201st in adjusted tempo.  Oklahoma ranks 52nd in defensive efficiency this season and 286th in adjusted tempo.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight, and points will be hard to come by.

That was the case in the first meeting between the Sooners and Red Raiders this season with Oklahoma pulling the 70-55 upset on February 9th for just 125 combined points.  Now these teams will be meeting for the 2nd time in less than two weeks, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings as each of the last seven meetings have seen 136 or fewer combined points.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have seen 130 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.

The UNDER is 24-8 in Sooners last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 27-9 in Red Raiders last 36 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee State -5.5

Middle Tennessee has been grossly undervalued.  The Blue Raiders are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the top two teams in the conference in North Texas and UAB.

Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home, going 12-0 SU & 7-2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points per game on the season.  Amazingly, 11 of those 12 wins have come by 9 points or more.  So we are getting a discount with the Blue Raiders as only 5.5-point home favorites tonight.

UTEP is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after going 8-2 SU in its last 10 games overall.  But they lost at North Texas by 8 and at home to Marshall by 9.  They did have a good win at LA Tech, but they have been very fortunate in close games during this stretch with six of their eight wins by single-digits.

The Blue Raiders are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Middle Tennessee is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 home games.  They'll be motivated to keep this unbeaten home record intact tonight and make easy work of the Miners.  Bet Middle Tennessee Monday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Hoosiers tonight.  They are going through their worst stretch of the season in going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with home losses to Illinois and Wisconsin as well as road losses to Michigan State and Northwestern.

It's safe to say the Hoosiers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  It's also safe to say they will be rested and ready to go as they haven't played a game since Tuesday, so they have had the last five days off.  Look for a big effort from Indiana tonight.

The Hoosiers face an Ohio State team they already beat 67-51 as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now they come back as 7.5-point underdogs in the rematch, an 11-point adjustment that isn't warranted.  That's especially the case considering Ohio State just lost 62-75 at home to Iowa as a 5-point favorite on Saturday and now has just one day to get ready for Indiana.  The rest and preparation advantage for the Hoosiers is massive here.  Take Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been impressive here down the stretch.  They are just 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with two losses by 2 points or fewer.  They lost by 2 at Wisconsin and by 1 at home to Michigan.  They also upset both Iowa and Michigan State at home.

The wrong team is favored here in my opinion as Maryland is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall with its lone victory coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Nebraska.  The Terrapins are 7-8 SU & 4-11 ATS at home this season and 4-11 SU in Big Ten play.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Maryland.  The Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Penn State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Marquette ML +105

Marquette wants revenge from a 69-75 home loss to Creighton in their first meeting this season.  Somehow they only attempted 7 free throws in a home game in that contest and did not get the whistles from the officials.

The good news is that home-court advantage has meant absolutely nothing in this head-to-head series.  Indeed, the road team has won four straight meetings while also going 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.

The Golden Eagles are in the more favorable rest spot here playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.  Meanwhile, Creighton will be playing its 4th game in 9 days.

Creighton is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  Marquette is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bluejays are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Roll with Marquette on the Money Line Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +9.5

This is a flat spot for the UCF Knights.  They are coming off a 52-70 road loss at Houston on Thursday in which they were hanging tough in the 2H before a big surge by the Cougars late to win and cover.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face ECU as they were to face the top team in the AAC in Houston.

That's especially the case after already beating East Carolina 92-85 on the road as 3-point favorites.  They come back as 9.5-point home favorites which is too much.  The Knights aren't going to shoot 15-of-30 (50%) from 3-point range like they did in that first meeting, yet they still only won by 7 points.

East Carolina has pulled outright upsets in its last two road games.  The Pirates won 73-71 as 7-point dogs at Tulsa and 65-57 as 1.5-point dogs at South Florida.  Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less as well.  Take East Carolina Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -1.5

Northern Iowa is 6-1 at home in MVC play this season with its lone loss coming to Drake in overtime.  The Panthers have one of the best home-court advantages in the conference.  They already beat Missouri State 85-84 on the road, and now they host the Bears as only 1.5-point favorites today.

I just think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams and home-court advantage for the Panthers is going to make all the difference today.  Northern Iowa is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Missouri State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford -2.5

The Stanford Cardinal blew a big lead on Thursday at home to Utah and lost 56-60.  They didn't score a FG for over nine minutes in a stretch that spanned the final 10 minutes of the game.  They will be pissed off, and I look for them to take it out on the Colorado Buffaloes tonight.

The Cardinal also want revenge from a 76-80 road loss at Colorado in their first meeting this season.  They are 10-4 at home this season and have a very good home-court advantage.  Colorado is much better at home than it is on the road and that has been the case for years for the Buffaloes.

Colorado is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Buffaloes are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games following three or more consecutive SU wins.  Colorado is 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Buffaloes are 25-54-1 ATS in their last 80 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Take Stanford Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +17.5

The Washington Huskies are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the Pac-12 right now.  They are 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They hung with USC on the road in a 10-point loss on Thursday, and they should not be catching 17.5 points at UCLA here Saturday.

The Bruins recently lost to USC on the road prior to crushing Washington State 76-56 at home on Thursday.  They are getting too much respect now for that win over the Cougars as they were 9.5-point favorites in that game and are now 17.5-point favorites here.  I'd probably favor Washington over Washington State at this point with how poorly the Cougars have been playing of late.

Washington has been a thorn in UCLA's side in recent meetings not once losing by more than 10 points in the last five meetings.  The Huskies only lost by 5 as 14.5-point road underdogs and by 3 as 9.5-point home underdogs in their two meetings last year.  And the Huskies are much improved this season.

Washington is 8-2 ATS following a loss this season.  The Huskies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a road loss.  Washington is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss overall.  Roll with Washington Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming 67-68 at Alabama as 5-point dogs.  That includes an upset home win over Auburn to hand the Tigers their only SEC loss this season in their last home game.

Arkansas has one of the best home-court advantages in the country at 14-1 at home this season while winning outscoring opponents 15.4 points per game.  They host a Tennessee team that has been shaky on the road in conference play with three road losses to Alabama (by 5), LSU (by 12), Kentucky (by 28).

Speaking of Kentucky, the Volunteers got their revenge on the Wildcats earlier this week with a 76-63 victory at home.  That sets them up for a prime letdown spot here as they travel to face Arkansas.  They won't bring the same intensity to this game as they brought against Kentucky at home last time out.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Arkansas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Tennessee.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Davidson -2

The Davidson Wildcats are 21-4 this season and 10-1 at home.  They should be more than 2-point home favorites against the Saint Louis Billikens, who come in getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after their blowout home win over La Salle last time out.

Davidson is the fresher team coming in on four days' rest while Saint Louis only has two days' rest and will be playing its 3rd game in 6 days.  The Billikens lost two meetings with St. Bonaventure in their previous two games prior to that win over La Salle.

Davidson has failed to cover the spread in four straight and seven of its last eight, so this is actually a 'buy low' spot on the Wildcats due to this stretch.  They are winning games but not winning by margin, which works just fine here as only 2-point favorites.

Davidson is 9-1 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Saint Louis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Davidson Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1.5

I like the spot for the Iowa State Cyclones today.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And they will be out for revenge after blowing a double-digit lead in the 2nd half at Oklahoma in their first meeting this season.

They face a struggling Oklahoma team that is just 2-9 SU in their last 11 games overall.  The Sooners are coming off an overtime home loss to Texas after losing at Kansas.  They won't be nearly as motivated to try and beat Iowa State as they were those two teams in two heartbreaking losses that will be tough to get back up off the mat from.

The Cyclones anded a four-game losing streak against a brutal schedule with a hard-fought 54-51 win at TCU last time out.  That victory gave them a lot of confidence and stopped the bleeding.  They will have great support from their fans at home today as they close in on making the NCAA Tournament after winning just two games last year.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Iowa State is 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Oklahoma.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +8

I love the spot for the Butler Bulldogs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 72-75 home loss to St. John's on February 5th less than two weeks ago.  That game was lined at +1.5, and now the Bulldogs come back as 8-point road underdogs, which is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.

St. John's is getting a lot of love after upsetting Xavier 86-73 as 6.5-point road dogs on Wednesday.  That places the Red Storm in a letdown spot, and it also means they have just one day to prepare for Butler.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have had the last two days off after last playing on Tuesday.

Butler is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now.  The Bulldogs haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 7 points.  That includes a 7-point loss at Providence as 9-point dogs, 17-point upset home win over Creighton as 2.5-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Xavier as 11-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Creighton as 7.5-point dogs, a 6-point upset home win over Marquette as 4-point dogs and a 2-point upset win at DePaul as 6-point dogs.

The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  The Red Storm are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  St. John's is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game this season.  Butler is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games when revenging a loss.  Bet Butler Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +8.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the San Jose State Spartans.  They are 0-13 in Mountain West play and highly motivated for that first conference victory.  They nearly got in in a 72-81 road loss at Nevada on Tuesday as 14.5-point underdogs.

The Spartans led that game throughout and it took a late surge for the Wolf Pack to win by 9 points.  It was much closer than the final score would indicate as I watched the entire thing.  Now the Spartans come back as 8.5-point home underdogs in the rematch and will be the more motivated team.

San Jose State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Nevada is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games overall and has been grossly overvalued all season, especially in conference play.  They have won just one conference game all season by double-digits.

Nevada is 1-8 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wolf Pack are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Nevada is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with San Jose State Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -4

The Stanford Cardinal have been impressive of late with wins over USC (twice).  They have handled the teams they were supposed to handle and only lost to the elite of the Pac-12.  They are 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in Pac-12 play this season.  Now they face a team in Utah they should handle tonight, and I expect them to do just that.

The Utes are 2-13 SU & 5-10 ATS in Pac-12 play this season.  That includes 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS on the road in Pac-12 play with five losses by double-digits.  They are getting way too much respect tonight as only 4-point underdogs against a Stanford team that is 10-3 at home this season.

Stanford is 7-1 SU in its last eight home meeting with Utah.  The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Cardinal are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Utes are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Bet Stanford Thursday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico +7.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colorado State Rams.  They have gone 4-0 SU in their last four games overall with three of those wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have been fortunate in close games, and their luck could easily run out tonight on the road at New Mexico in The Pit, which will be hostile tonight.

Colorado State is in a letdown spot here after beating Boise State in overtime on the road last time out.  That's especially the case after already beating New Mexico 80-74 at home in a thriller in their first meeting on January 19th less than a month ago.

Now the Lobos will be out for revenge from that defeat and I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.  They have recent close losses to Utah State by 3, Boise State by 8, Colorado State by 6, Wyoming by 2 and Fresno State by 5 in their last 10 games.  They have been on the bad side of these close games with some bad luck.  But they've proven they can play with the top teams in the conference as well.  That was evident last time out when they upset Wyoming 75-66 at home as 5.5-point underdogs.

The Lobos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  New Mexico is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings with the only exception being a New Mexico road win.  The Lobos have a great shot to win this game outright catching the Rams in a letdown spot while also being in revenge mode themselves.  We'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet New Mexico Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Hornets UNDER 226.5

This will be the 3rd meeting between Miami and Charlotte this season.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I look for these teams to struggle to score points tonight just as they have in their first two meetings this season.

Miami beat Charlotte 114-99 for just 213 combined points in their first meeting back on October.  Then they just met a few weeks ago with Miami winning 104-86 on the road for just 190 combined points on February 5th.  There's no way this total should be set as high as 226.5 points tonight given those two results.

Miami recently got Bam Adebayo back from injury and he's one of the best defenders in the NBA.  That has been on display of late as the Heat have allowed 100 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall while going 5-1 during that stretch.  He makes all the difference for this team defensively.

The Hornets have been held to 109 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last nine games overall and are struggling on that end.  The UNDER is 6-3 in their last nine games overall and would be 7-2 if not for an OT game against Minnesota last time out that was tied 108-108 at the end of regulation.

The UNDER is 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Charlotte.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Hornets last 15 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hornets last six home games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hornets last seven Thursday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +13.5

The Auburn Tigers have some very shaky performances of late and are clearly overvalued right now due to their 23-2 record and #2 ranking in the country.  They only beat Missouri by 1 as 12.5-point favorites on January 25th, Georgia by 2 as 16-point favorites on February 5th and lost outright to Arkansas as favorites on February 8th.

Now they are laying 13.5 points against a game Vanderbilt team that has had some impressive performances here of late.  They only lost by 9 at Tennessee as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at Kentucky as 14.5-point dogs and upset LSU by 9 as 3-point home dogs all in the month of February.  If they can hang with Tennessee and Kentucky on the road, they can certainly hang with Auburn, too.

Vanderbilt is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Auburn.  In fact, Vanderbilt hasn't lost by more than 12 points in any of its last 27 meetings with the Tigers.  That makes for a 27-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  

The Commodores are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs of 10 or more points.  Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Commodores are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +10

Valparaiso already proved they could play with Loyola-Chicago when they went on the road and took the Ramblers to overtime in a 74-81 (OT) loss as 15.5-point underdogs.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and I look for them to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

Valparaiso is 3-3 SU at home in conference play this season including an upset win over Northern Iowa and a 3-point loss to Southern Illinois.  The Beacons have played the Ramblers tougher than almost anyone in recent meetings.  In fact, five of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less.

This is a letdown spot for Loyola-Chicago.  They are coming off three straight huge games against arguably the three other best teams in the league in Missouri State, Bradley and Northern Iowa.  And after that blowout win over Northern Iowa, they are in a sandwich spot here with Drake on deck.  I don't think we get their best effort tonight, which is going to make it hard for them to put away the Beacons by double-digits.

The Ramblers are 1-7 ATS following an ATS win this season.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Valparaiso is 45-16 ATS in its last 61 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  Take Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +12.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons.  They are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But they have been through the gauntlet against mostly playoff teams during this stretch.

Their lone cover came in a 93-102 home loss to the Boston Celtics on February 4th.  Now they will be out for revenge from that defeat, and I really like their chances of staying within this inflated number given the terrible spot for the Celtics.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who are have won nine consecutive games coming in.  That includes their blowout road win at Philadelphia last night.  Now the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They will be without Marcus Smart, who was injured against the 76ers.  They could also be without Robert Williams, who is questionable with a calf injury.

Boston is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Celtics are 1-10 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that get outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  Boston is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 32-2 system backing Detroit tonight.  Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their three road games during this stretch with losses at Toronto by 11, at Dallas by 9 and at Boston by 10.  They also lost by 15 at home to the Spurs during this stretch.  Their two wins both came at home against the Pacers and Cavaliers.

Now the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days after a 124-116 home win over the Cavaliers last night.  All five starters played more than 30 minutes last night, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Magic are as healthy as they have been in a long time and are playing competitive basketball.  Each of their top nine scorers are healthy right now.  They have gone 3-3 SU in their last six home games with upset wins over the Mavericks and Bulls.  They are prepared to give the Hawks a run for their money at home here tonight given the spot.

Atlanta is 10-17 SU & 9-18 ATS on the road this season.  The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +4

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Northwestern by a single point as 5-point dogs.

The Scarlet Knights have really been impressive in their last three games.  They upset Michigan State 84-63 as 2.5-point home underdogs, upset Ohio State 66-64 as 3-point home underdogs and upset Wisconsin 73-65 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now they will likely upset Illinois at home tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

Illinois hasn't exactly been crushing it of late.  They are 5-3 SU but 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They lost on the road at Maryland 65-81 as 4.5-point favorites.  They only beat Michigan State 56-55 at home, Northwestern 59-56 as 5.5-point road favorites, lost by 16 at Purdue, and only beat Northwestern again 73-66 as 10.5-point home favorites.

Rutgers is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less.  The Scarlet Knights are 7-0 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their FG attempts this season.  Rutgers is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in its last two home meetings with Illinois.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +14.5

Nevada is just 10-13 SU & 7-15 ATS this season and has no business being favored by 14.5 points against anyone in the Mountain West.  The Wolf Pack 5-9 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall with all five wins coming by 13 points or fewer.  That's a 14-0 system backing San Jose State pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

The Spartans have been a great bet on the road this season in conference play.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five MWC road games not once losing by more than 16 points and they have played the class of the conference in Boise State, Wyoming and Utah State during this stretch.

Nevada is 2-8 ATS in home games this season.  San Jose State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take San Jose State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +6

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Wyoming Cowboys.  They have gone 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall despite seven of those games being decided by 7 points or fewer.  They have been fortunate in close games, and their luck could easily run out tonight on the road at New Mexico in The Pit, which will be hostile tonight.

Wyoming just jumped into the Top 25 this week and that's a huge accomplishment.  I think that makes the Cowboys primed for a letdown here.  That's especially the case after already beating New Mexico 93-91 at home in a thriller in their first meeting on January 22nd less than a month ago.

Now the Lobos will be out for revenge from that defeat and I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.  They have recent close losses to Utah State by 3, Boise State by 8, Colorado State by 6, Wyoming by 2 and Fresno State by 5 in their last 10 games.  They have been on the bad side of these close games with some bad luck.  But they've proven they can play with the top teams in the conference as well.

The Lobos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Mexico is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Lobos have a great shot to win this game outright catching the Cowboys in a letdown spot while also being in revenge mode themselves.  We'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with New Mexico Tuesday.

15* Villanova/Providence Big East ANNIHILATOR on Providence +4.5

Providence continues to lack the respect it deserves tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Villanova Wildcats.  The Friars are 21-2 this season and having a dream campaign.  But they aren't getting treated like one of the best teams in the country like they are.

Villanova isn't exactly crushing it on the road this season.  The Wildcats are 6-4 SU in their 10 true road games this season with three close wins and the only blowout wins coming against lowly Pennsylvania by 15 as 18.5-point favorites, DePaul by 15 as 9.5-point favorites and Georgetown by 11 as 13.5-point favorites.

Providence is a perfect 14-0 SU at home this season.  The Friars are a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs this season.  Providence is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as an underdog.  The Friars are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wildcats are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Take Providence Tuesday.

20* Celtics/76ers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 210.5

Two teams that prefer to play at slow tempos square off tonight when the Boston Celtics visit the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers rank 26th in pace this season while the Celtics rank 21st.  Both teams get after it defensively as the Celtics rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the 76ers rank 8th.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Well, this will be the 4th and final meetings between the Celtics and 76ers tonight.  These teams combined for 210, 211 and 175 points in their first three meetings this season.

The Celtics have really been shutting teams down defensively.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games, including 97 or fewer in nine of those.  The 76ers have held their last two opponents to 93 and 87 points, respectively.  They have scored 103 or less in four of their last six contests.

Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Boston is 11-3 UNDER as a road favorite this season.  The UNDER is 19-7 in 76ers last 26 games as underdogs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M -1

Texas A&M opened 15-2 but has been through the gauntlet in losing eight straight games to fall to 15-10.  Seven of those eight wins came by 10 points or fewer against the cream of the crop in the SEC.  They are looking at this as a must-win game at home tonight.

They should be able to handle the Florida Gators, who are getting a lot of love following a 4-1 SU stretch against a soft schedule.  They beat Oklahoma State, Ole Miss and Georgia at home and Missouri by 1 on the road.  They lost by 21 at Kentucky in their step up in class last time out.

Texas A&M is 10-4 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-5 SU on the road with its two wins coming at South Carolina and at Missouri (by 1).  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA all season.  They are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  They continue to remain competitive despite some injuries throughout the season and of late.

The Thunder should not be catching 8.5 points on the road to the New York Knicks.  The Knicks are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games overall and coming off a bad 103-112 loss to the short-handed Blazers.  They are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Injuries are starting to add up for the Knicks as they are without Derrick Rose and RJ Barrett, and they could be without Cameron Reddish, Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel, who are all questionable.  They have no business laying 8.5 points tonight given their current state.

Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with New York.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Oklahoma City is 7-0 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents this season.  New York is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games vs. teams that score 104 points per game or fewer.  Roll with the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons have been through the gauntlet.  They have lost seven straight games with each of the last six coming against playoff contenders.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them as they take a big step down in class here against the New York Knicks.

The Pistons are healthy right now and have talent.  Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham are both healthy.  They get Marvin Bagley III from the Kings and he should contribute the rest of the way and is probable tonight.  The only key player they are missing is 5th-leading scorer Frank Jackson (10.9 PPG).

The Wizards were sellers at the trade deadline and probably cannot be trusted much the rest of the way.  Bradley Beal is out with a season-ending injury, and they traded for Kristaps Porzingis, who remains out with a knee injury.  Daniel Gafford is out as well.  I think the Pistons have the better talent when comparing the current players available tonight.

Washington is 2-15-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The Wizards are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Louis/St. Bonaventure UNDER 136.5

I love the spot for the UNDER in this game between St. Louis and St. Bonaventure Monday night.  These teams just played on Friday in St. Louis with the Bonnies winning 68-61 for just 129 combined points.  Now they meet three days later here Monday at St. Bonaventure.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  And the head-to-head history between these teams suggest this total has been set way too high.  Indeed, the Billikens and Bonnies have combined for 129 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings.

They have combined for 135 or fewer points in 10 consecutive meetings, making for a 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 136.5-point total.  No surprise, but the UNDER is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl 56 No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5

Note: Scroll down for my Top 15 Prop Bets!

The Cincinnati Bengals have been grossly undervalued all postseason and even at the end of the regular season.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone loss came to the Browns in Week 18 in a meaningless game after they had already clinched the division.

After beating the Raiders 26-19 at home in the opening round, the Bengals have proven their toughness on the road by going into Tennessee and winning outright 19-16 as 4-point underdogs.  Then they trailed 21-3 at Kansas City, only to outscore the Chiefs 24-3 the rest of the way to pull the 27-24 upset as 7-point underdogs in OT.

Clearly, the Bengals feel like they are invincible right now after that comeback against the Chiefs.  They won't be phased by this being a 'road' game with the Rams hosting the Super Bowl.  Joe Burrow has made me a lot of money dating back to college, and I'm riding with him here.  He'll make enough plays to keep the Bengals in this game for four quarters, and he'll lead a comeback if he needs to.

But what is getting overlooked and has with this team all season is how well the defense has played.  The Bengals have allowed 24 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are allowing just 21.8 points per game this season, which is right on par with the Rams' 21.4 points per game.  Yet the Rams are perceived to have the much better defense due to all the stars they have.  For the Bengals defense, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  They have been Top 5 in offense and Top 5 in defense in basically every major category since their bye week. 

The Rams benefited from getting to face a reeling, banged up Cardinals team, a depleted Bucs team and a 49ers team with arguably the worst quarterback in the playoffs.  This will be their toughest test of the postseason.  The Bengals had no such luxury as the Titans were as healthy as they had been all season, and the Chiefs were pretty much at full strength as well.  And both wins came on the road in hostile atmospheres.

Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons.  The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in road games this season.  Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Rams) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games this season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Simply put, the Rams shouldn't be more than 2.5-point favorites in this game.  There's value with Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 Sunday.

My Top 15 Prop Bets in Order: (Most can be found at DraftKings)

1. Highest Scoring Half: 2H -120

2. No Score in 1st 6:00 of Game: -130

3. Team to Call 1st Timeout: Rams -140

4. Bengals Longest Punt O 52.5 Yards: -125

5. Team with the Longest Gross Punt: Bengals -115

6. Joe Mixon O 3.5 Receptions: -145

7. Joe Mixon O 26.5 Receiving Yards: -105

8. Will Rams Convert a 4th down: No +135

9. Cam Akers U 63.5 Rushing Yards: -110

10. Joe Mixon U 60.5 Rushing Yards: -115

11. Matthew Stafford U 5.5 Rushing Yards: -120

12. Cooper Kupp Longest Reception O 28.5 Yards: -145

13. 1st play of game: Pass +110

14. Rams U 3.5 Sacks: +105

15. Sony Michel O 18.5 Rushing Yards: -115

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +7

Loyola-Chicago has been grossly overvalued in MVC play this season as oddsmakers have treated them as the best team in the conference all season.  But Northern Iowa may very well be the best team in the conference, and they are out to prove that today.

The Ramblers are just 2-6-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have upset losses to Bradley, Drake and Missouri State during this stretch.  They also needed overtime to beat Valpo and Bradley at home and also struggled with Indiana State on the road.

Northern Iowa should not be catching 7 points from Loyola-Chicago today.  The Panthers are 10-2 SU & 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their two losses both coming down to the wire by 3 points and in OT.  They can hang with the Ramblers on the road today as well.

Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games.  The Ramblers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* Hawks/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +7.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall against a pretty weak schedule.  The one loss?  A 92-108 road loss against these Atlanta Hawks.

I like the Hawks catching 7.5 points in the rematch.  They won't be taking the Celtics lightly after going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  And they simply have owned the Celtics in recent meetings.

Indeed, the Hawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 15, 11 and 16 points.  The Hawks are also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games playing on one days' rest.  The Celtics are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Take the Hawks Sunday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +13.5

This is a terrible spot for the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are coming off five straight victories all by 7 points or less to improve to 20-3 this season and take control of the top spot in the Mountain West.  Now this is a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys.

They are coming off four straight wins against their top four contenders in the MWC in Colorado State (OT), Boise State by 7, Fresno State by 2 and Utah State (OT).  They won't be nearly as motivated to face San Jose State as they were those four teams, which is going to make it tough for them to cover this 13.5-point spread on the road.

San Jose State has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games with competitive losses to Utah State, Boise State and San Diego State.  Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from a 69-84 loss at Wyoming as 17.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough for home-court advantage here shifting this line only 4 points.

San Jose State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Wyoming) - after a close win by 3 points or less against an opponent that scored 65 points or less in three straight games are 41-9 (82%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys in this terrible spot for them.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -3.5

The Toronto Raptors are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and playing their best basketball of the season.  All eight wins have come by 4 points or more, including four straight wins by double-digits.  Toronto is also 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games overall.

The Raptors are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off.  The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-108 loss in Boston last night.  The Nuggets are now 0-3 SU in their last three road games with all three losses by 4 points or more.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  Denver is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Toronto is 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +14.5

The Washington Huskies have been flying under the radar.  They are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with both losses coming on the road to Oregon and Stanford.  The Huskies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home in conference play this season.

Now the Huskies are catching 14.5 points at home against Arizona on Saturday.  They only lost by 16 on the road as 24.5-point dogs at Arizona in their first meeting this season.  And I'm confident they can stay within 14.5 points at home this time around and give the Wildcats more of a run than they bargained for.

The Wildcats are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 Saturday games.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Saturday games.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Washington Saturday.