15* Padres/Giants NL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Giants and Padres combined for 15 runs yesterday.  Given how poor the pitchers in this game will be, it should be another slug fest today and this total of 8 is too short as a result.

The Padres will go with opener Bradgley Rodriquez before giving the bulk of the innings to gas can Matt Waldron.  He is 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 27 base runners in 13 2/3 innings with just 8 K's.

Adrian Houser has been just as bad going 0-3 with a 7.12 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in six starts for the Giants this season.  He has allowed 24 earned runs, 6 homers and 53 base runners in 30 1/3 innings.  Houser has allowed 7 runs, 5 earned, and 2 homers in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Padres.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Astros OVER 8

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 24-11-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.22 ERA, and their best reliever in Bryan Abreu likely won't be available tonight after pitching each of the last two days.

The tired Astros will go with Peter Lambert, who is only in the starting rotation due to injuries.  Lambert is 9-21 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 259 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He is 0-3 with a 9.73 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in five career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 22 earned runs, 9 homers and 42 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own like they basically did yesterday in a 8-3 victory in Game 1.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and should hang a big number on the Astros to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 8 ticket.

Few teams are as familiar with Shohei Ohtani as the Astros.  Ohtani is 3-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 14 career starts against Houston, including 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in seven career road starts against the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Pistons Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 215.5

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons are coming off Game 7's on Sunday.  That means they only had one day in between games to prepare for one another.  That lack of preparation will favor offense, and Game 1's historically have been the highest-scoring games in playoff series mostly for this reason.

The totals for the four regular season meetings between the Cavs and Pistons were set at 231.5, 239.5, 226.5 and 228.5.  This total has been set at 215.5, which is 11 points less than the lowest total and 24 points less than the highest total between these teams in the regular season.  That fact alone shows there's value on the OVER as this is too big of an adjustment down for the playoffs.

And this is basically the first time that both teams have been fully healthy.  Donovan Mitchell missed two of those regular season meetings.  James Harden didn't play in any of them.  Yet the Pistons and Cavs combined for at least 222 at the end of regulation in three of the four regular season meetings.

Both teams benefited from injuries to their opponents in the 1st round that also kept those games more lower scoring than they should have been.  Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic and missed the final three games of that series.  Immanuel Quickley didn't play a single game for the Raptors, and he is their offensive engine.  Brandon Ingram also missed the last couple games due to injury.  Both of these offenses are much more potent than what their opponents saw in Round 1.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rangers and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left field at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

It was a similar forecast in every game of their 4-game series with the Orioles at home last series.  The OVER went 4-0 with 9, 13, 14 and 13 combined runs.  It will be more of the same tonight.

Rookie Elmer Rodriquez is likely to get rocked for the Yankees as he makes just his 2nd career start.  He allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings with just 3 K's in his first start against the Rangers on April 29th.

In fact, Rodriquez was opposite Jacob DeGrom in that April 29th start.  While DeGrom was great in that game at home, it will be a different story for him on the road facing the Yankees with the win blowing out.  The advantage really goes to the hitters getting to see these two starters for the 2nd time in a week.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Twins/Nationals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Twins and Nationals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to center at game time.  There will be steady double-digit winds blowing out to center for all 9 innings.

That Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-12-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game.  The Twins are 21-13-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game.

Both starting pitchers are due some ERA regression.  Taj Bradley is 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP allowing 5 homers in 41 innings.  Cade Cavalli is very fortunate to have a 3.82 ERA when he has a 1.66 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 51 base runners in 30 2/3 innings.

These are also two of the worst offenses in baseball so both teams should add runs once these starters exit.  The Twins have a 5.31 ERA as a bullpen while the Nationals have a 4.76 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Phillies OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the A's and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The A's are really heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in five consecutive games with 11 hits or more in four of them.  They should get to Cristopher Sanchez, who is fortunate to have a 2.90 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP this season allowing 61 base runners in 40 1/3 innings.  Sanchez allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the A's.

The Phillies have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 1e games and are heating up at the plate as well.  They should hang a big number on Luis Severino, who is 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Severino is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts against the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Minnesota +12.5

The spreads for the three regular season meetings between the Timberwolves and Spurs were all -5 or less.  This spread for Game 1 has been inflated with the Spurs -12.5 at the time I locked this play in.  I locked it in as soon as Anthony Edwards looked good in shootaround with a decent chance to play tonight.  But I like the Timberwolves either way.

The Timberwolves went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their three regular season meetings with the Spurs with their lone loss coming by just 3 points on the road.  They actually won two games against the Nuggets without both Edwards and DiVincenzo for at least half of Game 4 and for the full game in Game 6. The Timberwolves even won Game 6 without Ayo Dosunmu, the breakout player of that series.

Now both Edwards and Dosunmu are questionable for Game 1.  It would be a huge bonus to have one or both of them available, and with four days off since that Denver series, there's a good chance both will feel good enough to go tonight.  If not, the Timberwolves have proven their depth and can still hang without them for Game 1.

I think rust might be a factor for the Spurs after making easy work of the Blazers in five games in their last series.  They have been off since April 28th.  This is still a young team without any playoff experience, so the road is only going to get harder for them going forward.  They should not be favored by 12.5 against Minnesota in Game 1.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Cubs OVER 11.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11.5 ticket between the Reds and Cubs tonight.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 8-4 for 12 combined runs.

The Cubs are 18-6-2 OVER in their last 26 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring 7 runs or more in 11 of their last 20 games overall and scoring 5.4 runs per game on the season.  The Reds are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall.

The Cubs will hang a big number on rookie Chase Petty, who went 0-3 with a 19.50 ERA in limited action last season.  He allowed 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 6 innings.  Petty has gone 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts at Triple-A Louisville this season.

Edward Cabrera is due some major regression as his advanced numbers look much worse than his actual numbers of 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts this season.  Cabrera is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 23-11-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.20 ERA, and their best reliever in Bryan Abreu likely won't be available tonight after pitching two innings yesterday.

The tired Astros will go with opener Steven Okert before giving the bulk of the innings to rookie Ryan Weiss.  Okerk has posted a 4.20 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 15 innings this season.  Weiss is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.99 WHIP this season, allowing 16 earned runs, 6 homers and 43 base runners in 21 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and should hang a big number on the Astros to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.

But I think Houston can do enough damage off Yoshinobu Yamamoto to contribute to this total.  He hasn't been very sharp in his last two starts against two poor lineups in the Giants and Marlins.  he has allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, and 17 base runners in 12 innings in those two starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Brewers and Cardinals tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center and temps in the 70's in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game this season.  The Brewers are scoring 5.2 runs per game and have an underrated lineup despite some injuries.

The Brewers should hang a big number on Kyle Leahy and this awful St. Louis bullpen.  Leahy is 3-3 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 18 earned runs, 6 homers and 49 base runners in 29 1/3 innings with 22 K's.  St. Louis has a 4.92 ERA as a bullpen as well.

Chad Patrick is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball with how much he pitches to contact.  He has just 16 K's in 28 innings and a 2.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  Patrick is 0-1 with a 4.16 ERA in two career starts against the Cardinals, allowing 4 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Orioles and Yankees tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  It has been a similar forecast in the first three games of this series as these teams have combined for 9, 13 and 14 runs.

The Yankees have scored 7, 9 and 11 runs in the first three games of this series and are capable of covering this total on their own again.  Shane Baz is 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in six starts this season.  Baz allowed 11 earned runs and 6 homers in 6 1/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees last season.

This Baltimore bullpen has been awful as well with a 4.65 ERA this season.  The Yankees have a 4.31 ERA at home as a bullpen this season.  No question Cam Schlittler has been impressive this season, but he can't keep up these numbers and is due some regression.

The Orioles are 11-1-1 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Cleveland Guardians -116

The Cleveland Guardians have a big advantage on the mound today and should be bigger favorites over the A’s as a result.

Parker Messick is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six starts for the Guardians this season.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 36 1/3 innings with 38 K's.

Aaron Civale is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in six starts for the A's this season.  He has really struggled at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, going 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in two starts while allowing 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.

Civale has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.  The Guardians are 6-1 in their last seven meetings with the A's.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* Magic/Pistons Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 202.5

The Orlando Magic were already one of the worst offensive teams in these playoffs.  But losing Franz Wagner 19.9 PPG has really hurt them.  They weren't the same in Game 6 falling 93-79 to the Pistons for just 172 combined points.  It was the 3rd time in this series these teams have combined for 182 or fewer points.  Now this total is 30 points higher than that at 202.5.

Game 7 UNDERS have notoriously been a good bet in the NBA playoffs.  Teams feel the extra pressure and it tends to really hurt them offensively, but the defensive intensity is at an all-time high.  That will be the case in Game 7 here in a matchup between two terrible shooting teams, and two elite defensive teams that are also big and physical.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on DBacks/Cubs OVER 11.5

The books have set this total high for good reason. There will be 20-25 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  Both Kelly and Boyd have been gas cans this season and both will get rocked by these two hot, potent lineups. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* Dodgers/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Dodgers.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowout out to left-center.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own against former teammate Dustin May, who has been terrible this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Phillies/Marlins OVER 8

Jesus Luzardo and Chris Paddack have both been gas cans this season, and this total of 8 is too low as a result. The Marlins have also been a dead nuts OVER team at home over the last three years.  Luzardo has posted a 5.56 ERA this season and Paddack has been even worse with a 7.43 ERA. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Pirates OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Reds and Pirates today.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  It was a similar forecast the last fI’ve days when the Pirates went 5-0 OVER in their last five home games going for 18, 9 and 15 combined runs with the Cardinals, and 10 combined runs with the Reds in Game 1 and 24 runs in Game 2.

The Pirates have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  The Reds are heating up at the plate going 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of those 13 games, including 6 runs or more eight times.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9

There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at Yankee Stadium today that will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket. This total is too short given the forecast and given how potent both of these lineups are.  The Orioles are starting a rookie in Gibson, so the Yankees are capable of covering this total on their own. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* 76ers/Celtics Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +8.5

The books are failing to adjust for the fact that the Philadelphia 76ers have Joel Embiid back healthy and playing at an MVP level.  He made his playoff debut in a Game 4 loss, and since then the 76ers have thrived with a 113-97 win as 10.5-point road dogs in Game 5 and a 106-93 home win as 5.5-point dogs in Game 6.

Embiid finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists in Game 4, 33 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 6.  He opens everything up for them, and the Celtics don't have an answer for him as they have tried everything.  Their bigs are limited offensively when they are on the court, and when they go small ball they get crushed inside.  

I don't think they'll magically come up with an answer in Game 7, and this one should go down to the wire so getting 8.5 points is tremendous value.  Jayson Tatum is banged up even though he is expected to give it a go tonight, too.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

20* Dodgers/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Cardinals are really a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game with a terrible bullpen that has a 5.01 ERA this season.  The Cardinals are 4-0 OVER in their last four games going for 9, 15, 9 and 18 combined runs with the Pirates and Dodgers.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have actually been a lot better at scoring runs on the road.  This total of 8.5 is too low for these two starting pitchers, lineups and bullpens.

Roki Sasaki has been a major disappointment for the Dodgers this season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in five starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 7 homers and 41 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.

Michael McGreevy is due some regression for the Cardinals with how much he pitches to contact with just 21 K's in 33 1/3 innings with 5 homers allowed.  McGreevy allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Pirates OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Reds and Pirates today.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  It was a similar forecast the last four days when the Pirates went 4-0 OVER in their last four home games going for 18, 9 and 15 combined runs with the Cardinals, and 10 combined runs with the Reds in Game 1 yesterday.

The Pirates have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.  The Reds are heating up at the plate going 10-2 OVER in their last 12 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in eight of those 12 games, including 6 runs or more seven times.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 12 games.

Rhett Lowder is a contact pitcher who is due some regression after posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to this point.  Carmen Mlodzinski is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearance this season.  Mlodzinksi allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Cincinnati.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* DBacks/Cubs NL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They are 18-5-1 OVER in their last 24 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 19 of those 24 games, and 8 or more in 17 of them.  The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 12 of their last 18 games overall.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Cubs right now.

The Diamondbacks are 14-6-2 OVER in their last 22 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 21 of those 22 games.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game this season.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Diamondbacks as well.

Ryne Nelson has been rocked for 14 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts, so the Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own.  Shota Imanaga is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings to the Dodgers.  

The Cubs and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 7 runs in seven of their last eight meetings, and 8 runs or more in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Blue Jays/Twins AL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Blue Jays and Twins this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  

It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Blue Jays beat the Twins 7-3 for 10 combined runs and 21 combined hits.  The OVER is now 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between the Blue Jays and Twins with 8 or more combined runs in all 10 meetings, and 9 or more in nine of them.

Dylan Cease is due some regression and this total has been set too low due to his numbers thus far.  Cease is 4-5 with a 4.69 ERA in 13 career starts against the Twins.  The Blue Jays have a 4.05 ERA as a bullpen while the Twins have a 5.03 ERA.

Rookie Connor Prielipp is 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA in two starts for the Twins this season.  Those two starts came against the Mariners and Mets.  This is a big step up in class for him today against a Blue Jays lineup that will get to him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Padres OVER 8

The Padres are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in seven consecutive games now, so this total of 8 is pretty low for a game involving the Padres right now.

The White Sox are 10-6 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 16 games, and 11 or more combined runs in nine of them.  They have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball, but a terrible staff and bullpen that has a 4.88 ERA on the season.

Left-handed rookie Noah Shultz is talented, but this will be one of his toughest tests of the season.  The Padres are hitting .267 against left-handed starters this season and will be going with a right-handed heavy lineup tonight to counter him.

German Marquez is an absolute gas can.  He is 3-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  Marquez allowed 6 earned runs and 11 hits in 6 innings of a 10-3 loss to the White Sox in his last start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Lakers/Rockets Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 205.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and the Rockets without Kevin Durant.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 3 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.

Game 4 was the outlier with the Rockets winning 115-96 for 211 combined points, barely sneaking over the total.  The Rockets shot 50% from the field and the Lakers 48.1% and it still only reached 211.  It was the blowout nature that allowed both defenses to relax in the 4Q and squeak over the total.

Game 5 was back to reality with the Rockets beating the Lakers 99-93 for 192 combined points.  Four of five meetings in this series have seen 205 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation, and that should hold true for this one as well.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I expect this game to be close, and for the defensive intensity to be there for 4 quarters for both teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Dodgers/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cardinals are really a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game with a terrible bullpen that has a 5.15 ERA this season.  The Cardinals are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 15, 9 and 18 combined runs with the Pirates.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  They have actually been a lot better at scoring runs on the road.  This total of 8 is too low for these two starting pitchers, lineups and bullpens.

Emmet Sheehan is 2-0 with a 4.78 ERA in five starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Matthew Liberatore, who is 0-1 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 16 earned runs and 8 homers in 30 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Twins OVER 8.5

Two gas can starting pitchers go tonight in Minnesota when Patrick Corbin takes on Simeon Woods-Richardson.  This will actually be the 2nd meeting of the season between these two starts, and that gives both lineups a big advantage having already seen them once.

Woods-Richardson is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs, 6 homers and 51 base runners in 30 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Blue Jays on April 10th.  Woods-Richardson is now 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA in three career starts against Toronto, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 innings.

Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball for the last several years.  He is due some regression after a decent start this season.  Corbin is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota, allowing 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 30 2/3 innings.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings on April 10th in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Pirates OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Reds and Pirates tonight.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  It was a similar forecast the last three days when the Pirates went 3-0 OVER in their last three home games with the Cardinals going for 18, 9 and 15 combined runs.

The Pirates have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  The Reds are heating up at the plate going 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in eight of those 11 games, including 6 runs or more seven times.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in nine of their last 11 games.

Brady SInger is 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in six starts for the Reds this season, allowing 16 earned runs, 5 homers and 47 base runners in 29 innings.  Singer has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings for a 8.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh.  He is 2-4 with a 6.37 ERA in six career starts against them.

Mitch Keller is 3-6 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Reds.  He has allowed 58 earned runs and 11 homers in 93 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 6 No-Brainer on Toronto +4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a terrible road team in the playoffs over the last several seasons.  They lost outright as favorites by 22 in Game 3 and by 4 in Game 4 in Toronto.  But most alarming was them being life and dead with the Raptors at home in Game 5.

The Raptors only lost 125-120 in Cleveland in Game 5 despite a lot of things going against them.  Brandon Ingram got hurt early in that game, and the Cavs shot 53.1% from the field and 50% from 3.  The Raptors were able to hang tough by outrebounding the Cavs by 13, and they have really been outworking them on the boards to turn this series around.

Too much is being made of the Ingram injury.  He has actually been a liability for the Raptors in this series, shooting it terribly.  Barrett and Barnes are playing the best basketball of their careers to keep the Raptors competitive in this series.  And I expect them to win outright tonight.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Nationals OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-9-2 OVER in all games.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.02 ERA.

The Brewers just scored 28 runs in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against Jake Irvin, who is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in six starts this season while allowing 16 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  Irvin has allowed 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket with temps in the 60's and light winds blowing out to center in Washington tonight.  I think Jacob Misiorowski (1-2, 3.31 ERA) is getting too much respect here keeping this total lower than it should be tonight.  The OVER is 5-1 in Misiorowski's six starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* DBacks/Cubs NL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They are 17-5-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 18 of those 23 games, and 8 or more in 16 of them.  The Cubs have scored at least 7 runs in 10 of their last 17 games overall.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Cubs right now.

The Diamondbacks are 13-6-2 OVER in their last 21 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 20 of those 21 games.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game this season.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Diamondbacks as well.

Zac Gallen has notoriously had huge home/road splits throughout his career.  This season is no exception as he is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three road starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings.  Gallen has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Colin Rea is 3-1 with a 4.61 ERA for the Cubs this season, allowing 14 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings.  Rea is 0-0 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona, allowing 12 earned runs and 30 base runners in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Celtics/76ers Game 6 No-Brainer on OVER 212

Joel Embiid is back for the 76ers and playing at an MVP level since making his 2026 NBA playoff debut in Game 4.  He had 26 points and 6 assists in 34 minutes in a 128-96 loss to the Celtics in Game 4 that saw 224 combined points.

Embiid was even better in Game 5, going for 33 points and 8 assists in 39 minutes of a 113-97 victory and 210 combined points.  It was a travesty that game did not go over the total as the Celtics missed their final 16 shots of the game and scored just 11 points total in the 4th quarter.

The 76ers should have another very efficient offensive game here led by Embiid and Maxey in Game 6.  But the Celtics should be much better offensively after shooting just 40.4% from the field, 28.2% from 3 and 60.9% from the FT line in Game 5.  They couldn't have shot it worse.  They are an elite shooting team and will hang a big number on the 76ers in Game 6 to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 212 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/Orioles OVER 9 (Game 2)

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-9 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 6.0 runs per game.  They have gone 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.

The Baltimore Orioles are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 11 or more combined runs in six of those eight games.  A big problem for both of these teams is their bullpens.  The Astros have a 6.27 ERA on the season and a 7.11 ERA on the road, while the Orioles have a 4.22 ERA on the season and a 5.20 ERA at home.

Lance McCullers continues to struggle working his way back from injury.  McCullers is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings for a 9.34 ERA in two career road starts in Baltimore.

Brandon Young has been a disaster in two seasons for the Orioles.  he is 3-7 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 14 career starts.  Young allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings in his lone career home start against the Astros.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 of this double-header Thursday.

15* NL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Mets OVER 7.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 20-9-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals.

The Mets are capable of covering this total on their own against Miles Mikolas and this atrocious Washington bullpen.  Mikolas is 0-3 with a 8.49 ERA and 1.84 WHIP this season, allowing 22 earned runs, 7 homers and 43 base runners in 23 1/3 innings.  Mikolas has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against New York.  The Nationals have a 5.13 ERA this season as a bullpen.

Freddy Peralta has been a disappointment for the Mets this season.  He is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA in six starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 32 1/3 innings.  Peralta is 3-3 with a 5.61 ERA in six career starts against the Nationals, allowing 21 earned runs in 33 2/3 innings.  Mikolas is 2-4 with a 5.28 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets, allowing 27 earned runs in 46 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Reds OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati this afternoon.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  These teams combined for 9 runs on 22 hits in Game 1 and 15 runs and 25 hits in Game 2.  It should be more of the same today.

The Reds are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games, and 11 or more six times.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of those 10 games.  The Rockies just hung 13 runs on the Reds yesterday.

Michael Lorenzen is 2-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in six starts for the Rockies this season.  He has allowed 19 earned runs and 46 hits in 28 2/3 innings.  Lorenzen allowed 6 earned runs and 14 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against the Reds.

Andrew Abbott is 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in six starts for the Reds this season.  He has allowed 21 earned runs and 49 base runners in 28 2/3 innings.  Abbott allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 innings in his last start against the Rockies.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Astros/Orioles OVER 9 (Game 1)

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-9 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 6.0 runs per game.  They have gone 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.

The Baltimore Orioles are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 11 or more combined runs in six of those eight games.  A big problem for both of these teams is their bullpens.  The Astros have a 6.27 ERA on the season and a 7.11 ERA on the road, while the Orioles have a 4.22 ERA on the season and a 5.20 ERA at home.

Peter Lambert is 9-20 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 254 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Chris Bassitt is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 16 earned runs and 44 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Bassitt is 0-3 with a 7.37 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in his last four starts against the Astros, allowing 12 earned runs and 32 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 of this double-header Thursday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 3 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.

Game 4 was the outlier with the Rockets winning 115-96 for 211 combined points, barely sneaking over the total.  The Rockets shot 50% from the field and the Lakers 48.1% and it still only reached 211.  It was the blowout nature that allowed both defenses to relax in the 4Q and squeak over the total.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I expect this game to be close, and for the defensive intensity to be there for 4 quarters for both teams.  Three of four meetings in this series have seen 205 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation, and that should hold true for this one as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Pistons UNDER 212

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall and have been in playoff mode in all seven games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  Game 3 was the outlier with the Magic winning 113-105 for 218 combined points.  The Magic shot 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3 in Game 3 including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane.

Game 4 the shooting came back down to reality in a 94-88 win by Orlando and just 182 combined points.  Now the books have set this total at 212 for Game 5, which is 30 more points than Game 4 finished with.  This discrepancy is too much as these are two of the worst shooting teams left in the playoffs.

Franz Wagner (19.9 PPG) suffered a calf injury late in Game 4 that will likely keep him out for Game 5.  That's a big blow to the Magic offensively, but he's a liability defensively so they should be even better on that end.  Wagner had scored at least 17 points in seven of his past nine games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Pirates OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Pirates tonight.  There will be steady 15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Pittsburgh.  It should be a similar slug fest to yesterday when the Cardinals beat the Pirates 11-7 for 18 combined runs.  These are two underrated offenses with both averaging 4.8 runs per game this season.

Andre Pallante is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 36 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  Pallante allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-3 loss to the Pirates in his last start against them.

Bubba Chandler is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five starts for the Pirates this season.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 36 base runners in 24 innings.  Chandler allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings to the Rangers in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Rockies/Reds OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati tonight.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  These teams combined for 9 runs on 22 hits yesterday and it should be an even higher-scoring game today.

The Reds are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those nine games, and 11 or more five times.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of those nine games.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts for the Rockies this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  He went 10-10 with a 4.64 ERA in 30 starts for the Orioles last season and is due some regression in Colorado.

Brandon Williamson is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season.  He has allowed 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 25 innings.  Williamson is 0-1 with a 9.35 ERA in two home starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Padres NL No-Brainer on OVER 9

The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They are 16-5-1 OVER in their last 22 games overall.  They have scored at least 7 runs in 10 of their last 16 games overall.

The Padres are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 10 or more combined runs in six consecutive games now.

Matt Waldron is 0-1 with a 12.46 ERA and 2.31 WHIP in two starts for the Padres this season, allowing 12 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Jameson Taillon is 1-1 with a 4.55 ERA in five starts for the Cubs, including 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two road starts, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Red Sox have scored a total of 27 runs in their last four games and are starting to come to life at the plate.  The Blue Jays have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games, and 4 runs or more six times.  

After two brutal starting pitching matchups to open this series with Suarez vs. Cease and Tolle vs. Yesavage, the hitters should finally have their way in Game 3 today against these two gas can starting pitchers.

Bryan Bello is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in five starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has allowed 22 earned runs, 8 homers and 50 base runners in 22 innings.

Eric Lauer hasn't been much better, going 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in four starts and one relief appearance this season.  He has allowed 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 35 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Angels/White Sox OVER 8.5

There will be 15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Chicago this afternoon to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Angels and White Sox.  These are two dead nuts OVER teams as it is.

The White Sox are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 15 games, and 11 or more combined runs in nine of them.  The Angels are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.

The only game that didn't go over was yesterday in a great starting pitching matchup between Soriano and Martin that saw 7 combined runs and a total of 7.5.  This is a big downgrade today in quality of starting pitchers.

Yusei Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP In six starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 18 innings.  Erick Fedde is 0-3 with a 3.42 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances for the White Sox this season.  The Angels have a 5.71 ERA as a bullpen while the White Sox have a 4.98 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -111

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after three straight losses to the Dodgers and Padres.  They had gone 11-1 in their previous 12 games while scoring 6 runs or more in nine of those 12 games, and 7 runs or more eight times.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Edward Cabrera, who is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts this season, allowing just 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 29 2/3 innings.  Cabrera owns the Padres, going 1-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three career starts against them, allowing one earned run in 16 2/3 innings with 17 K's.

Walker Buehler went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in 2024 and 10-7 with a 4.93 ERA in 24 starts in 2025.  He is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in five starts in 2026, allowing 13 earned runs and 33 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.  Buehler allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against Chicago.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Blazers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have the worst offense in the playoffs, but they were the best defense in the NBA over the final 15 games of the regular season as they were just trying to sneak into the playoffs.

That has played out in this series with the UNDER going 3-1 in four games with 209 or fewer combined points in all three games.  This total of 217.5 has been set too high again for Game 4.  The Blazers are scoring just 101.3 points per game in this series and the Spurs will lock them down again.

The Spurs have scored 112 points per game in this series despite shooting lights out from 3 the entire series, which is unlikely to continue.  They shot 45.5% from 3 in Game 1, 48.5% from 3 in Game 2 and 42.4% from 3 in Game 4.  They can't possibly shoot it any better, and yet three of the four games saw 209 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tigers/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.7 runs per game this season.  The Detroit Tigers have a much better lineup than they get credit for scoring 4.6 runs per game this season.

The Tigers have gone 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in six of their last seven.  They have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games.  The Braves are 4-1-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all seven games, and 9 or more in five of them.  They have scored at least 5 runs in six of those seven games.

Two starters due some major regression square off tonight.  Casey Mize can't sustain his 2.51 ERA this season, and Martin Perez in particular can't sustain his 2.70 ERA with how much he pitches to contact.

Mize allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 2/3 innings to the Braves in his lone start against them last season.  Perez allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Tigers in his final start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Phillies OVER 8

The Giants are heating up at the plate going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall while scoring 6, 6 and 4 runs.  The Phillies are also heating up at the plate going 4-1-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all six games.  This total of 8 is too short tonight given how poor both starting pitchers have been to start the season.

Jesus Luzardo is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts for the Phillies this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 42 base runners in 27 1/3 innings.  Luzardo is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in six career starts against the Giants, allowing 18 earned runs in 31 innings.

Tyler Mahle is 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Giants this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 25 2/3 innings.  This despite making four of his five starts at home in friendly pitching confines.  In his lone road start, Mahle allowed 8 earned runs in 4 innings to the Reds.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/Orioles OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 6.0 runs per game.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.

The Baltimore Orioles are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 11 or more combined runs in six of those seven games.  A big problem for both of these teams is their bullpens.  The Astros have a 6.31 ERA on the season and a 7.25 ERA on the road, while the Orioles have a 4.18 ERA on the season and a 5.19 ERA at home.

The Astros will make this a bullpen game starting with Kai-Wei Teng.  The Orioles will go with Shane Baz, who is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 43 base runners in 28 1/3 innings.  Baz has allowed 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pistons/Magic UNDER 215.5

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall and have been in playoff mode in all seven games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  Game 3 was the outlier with the Magic winning 113-105 for 218 combined points.  The Magic shot 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3 in Game 3 including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane.  That's not going to happen again.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on, the low-scoring each game tends to be.  This is a first to 100 wins type of game tonight in Game 4.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Pistons/Magic NBC ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -2.5

The Pistons have been a very resilient team.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  That includes their 98-83 win in Game 2 following an upset home loss to the Magic.

Orlando bounced back with a 113-105 home win in Game 3.  They were life and death with the Pistons with just a few minutes remaining when they actually trailed 105-104, but closed the game on a 9-0 run.  They were life and death despite shooting 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3-point range including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane alone, and that's not going to happen again for this poor shooting team.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/Rangers OVER 8

The Yankees are a potent offensive team that is scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  The Yankees just scored a total of 24 runs in their three games with the Astros over the weekend as the OVER went 3-0 with 11 or more combined runs in all three games.

The Rangers have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last six games.  Max Fried was rocked for 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Rangers in his lone career start against them.  Fried has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three of his last four starts overall.

The Yankees should crush Jack Leiter, who is 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 37 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  Leiter has allowed 6 earned runs and 14 base runners in 8 1/3 innings in two career starts against New York.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Guardians OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Rays and Guardians tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field in Cleveland.

The Rays are 17-10 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game.  The Rays have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games coming into this one.

The Guardians have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in five of those seven games, and 11 or more in four of them.  They are a much improved offensive team this season.

Steven Matz is 3-1 with a 4.81 ERA in five starts for the Rays this season.  He is backed by a terrible bullpen with the Rays posting a 5.27 ERA this season.  Parker Messick is due some major regression for the Guardians.  This Cleveland bullpen hasn't been much better with a 4.64 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lakers/Rockets NBC No-Brainer on UNDER 208

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 4 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.  I will stick to the UNDER 208 in Game 4 tonight with Durant and Reaves both questionable, though I expect both to sit again.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers NL No-Brainer on OVER 9

The Chicago Cubs are really raking at the plate right now during their 11-2 run in their last 13 games.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of those 13 games, including 7 runs or more eight times.  The Cubs are 11-3 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 13 games.

While the Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season, the Dodgers have been even better at 5.7 runs per game.  And the forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket today with temps in the 60's and 15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.

Lefty Shota Imanaga is due some regression for the Cubs.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 11-10 win over the Dodgers in his last start against them.  The Dodgers are hitting .288 against left-handed starters this season.

Lefty Justin Wrobleskis is clearly due some regression for the Dodgers as well as he pitches to contact with just 9 K's in 24 innings this season.  The Cubs are hitting .292 against left-handed starters this season as both lineups are built to crush southpaws.  

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 10 or more combined runs in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/White Sox OVER 7.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 19-8-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 23 of those 28 games.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .246 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.52 ERA this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.1 runs per game.

The White Sox are a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 12 games.  Chicago is allowing 5.2 runs per game and has a bullpen with a 5.44 ERA.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the White Sox right now, too.

Rookie Foster Griffin has allowed 5 homers in 26 2/3 innings this season.  Opening Bryan Hudson goes for the White Sox before giving way to Sean Burke, who is 1-2 with a 4.10 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/Astros OVER 9.5

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 20-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 6.1 runs per game.  The Astros are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 11 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games, six of which came against the light-hitting Cardinals & Guardians.

Now they are facing the offensive juggernaut in the New York Yankees who are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  The Yankees did the heavy lifting with a 12-4 victory in Game 1 and a 8-3 victory in Game 2 to cash OVER tickets for us.  It will be more of the same today.

Luis Gil is 1-1 with a 4.11 ERA in three starts this season allowing 7 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Gil is due some regression as his underlying metrics are much worse than that to this point.

Spencer Arrighetti will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Astros as he works his way back from injury.  Arrighetti allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his lone career start against the Yankees.  He is backed by an awful Houston bullpen that has posted a 6.19 ERA this season.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tigers/Reds OVER 9

These are two red hot lineups that should feast at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati again today.  The Reds beat the Tigers 9-8 in Game 1 for 17 combined runs and 9-2 in Game 2 for 11 combined runs.  It should be another slug fest today.

The Tigers are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of their last six.  They have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.

The Reds are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games.

Two starters due some regression square off today.  Keider Montero is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts for the Tigers, while Rhett Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA in five starts for the Reds.  Both starters pitch to contact.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Tigers and Reds with 11 or more combined runs in all five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Tigers/Reds OVER 9

These are two red hot lineups that should feast at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati again today.  The Reds beat the Tigers 9-8 in Game 1 yesterday for 17 combined runs, and it should be another slug fest today.

The Tigers are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in four of their last five.  They have scored at least 4 runs in seven consecutive games coming into this one.

The Reds are 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have scored 5 runs or more in five of their last six games.

Jack Flaherty is washed up and fortunate to have a 3.47 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP this season.  Flaherty has allowed a whopping 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.

Brady Singer is 1-1 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 39 base runners in 23 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Astros OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 19-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 60 runs per game.  The Astros are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 11 or more combined runs in six of those seven games against the light-hitting Cardinals and Guardians.

Now they must face the offensive juggernaut in the New York Yankees who are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  And the Yankees are clearly capable of coming close to covering this total on their own just as they did yesterday in a 12-4 victory over the Astros and 16 combined runs.

Michael Burrows is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five starts for the Astros this season.  He has allowed 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 2/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.94 ERA on the season.

Ryan Weathers is 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts for the Yankees allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 28 1/3 innings.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Knicks/Hawks NBC No-Brainer on New York -2

The New York Knicks are very close to being up 3-0 in this series.  Instead, they have lost two straight 1-point games to the Hawks and trail 2-1.  Now they will be playing with desperation in Game 4, and I trust this veteran team to show up in a big way and get the win and cover today.

Playoff road teams off a 1-point loss have gone 17-6 ATS since 2011, including 7-2 ATS when favored.  I think it's promising that the Knicks shot 28.6% from 3 in Game 3 while the Hawks shot 39.4% yet the Knicks only lost by 1.  They are due some positive shooting regression in Game 4 today.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/White Sox OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 22 of those 27 games.  This total of 9 is actually too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .249 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.56 ERA this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The White Sox are a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 games.  That includes 16 and 18 combined runs with the Diamondbacks in two of their last three games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the White Sox right now.

Jake Irvin is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in five starts this season and one of the worst starters in baseball.  Rookie Noah Shultz is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts for the White Sox.  He is backed by a terrible Chicago bullpen that has posted a 5.40 ERA this season.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket with 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center that will certainly increase HR chances in that direction.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Twins/Rays OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today and this total of 8 is too short.  The Rays are 17-8 OVER in all games this season, while the Twins are 16-10 OVER in all games.  The Rays are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game, while the Twins are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game.

Shane McClanahan is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in four starts this season allowing 10 earned runs in 18 innings as he works his way back from injury.  He is backed by a terrible Tampa Bay bullpen that has posted a 5.56 ERA this season.

Bailey Ober is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in five starts for the Twins this season.  He is backed by a Minnesota bullpen that has posted a poor 4.75 ERA.  Ober is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in two career starts against the Rays.  McClanahan is 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA in two career starts against the Twins. 

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Twins and Rays with 8 or more combined runs in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Thunder/Suns NBC No-Brainer on Phoenix +9.5

The Phoenix Suns showed they could hang in Game 2 with a 120-107 loss as 16.5-point road dogs.  They really made some headway once Jalen Williams (17.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) exited with an injury that will now keep him out for multiple weeks.  Their best shooter in Isaiah Joe (11.0 PPG, 42% 3-pointers) is also doubtful today.

The Thunder are a deep team and dealt with injuries all season, but these two injuries are not being factored into this line enough.  Neither is the desperation the Suns will be playing with today trying to get back in this series.  This is the best spot to back the Suns in this series.

The Thunder were terrible on the road in the playoffs last season and that will continue today.  Home teams in the playoffs off a loss have been a great bet this year, too.  The spot really favors the Suns today.  Bet the Suns Saturday.

20* Pistons/Magic Game 3 Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall and have been in playoff mode in all six games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  The books have been way off with the totals in this series, and they are off again here setting Game 3 at 214.5.  These teams will struggle to get to 200 combined points today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The Cubs are really raking at the plate right now during their 10-1 run in their last 11 games.  They have scored 7 runs or more in eight of those 11 games and are capable of covering this total on their own.

While the Cubs are scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, the Dodgers also have one of the best lineups in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  And both of these potent lineups should have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers tonight.

Jameson Taillon is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 6 homers in 22 2/3 innings.  Taillon is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs and 32 base runners in 19 innings.  He's backed by a poor, tired Chicago bullpen that will be playing for an 8th consecutive day.

The Cubs should stay hot against Emmet Sheehan, who is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in four starts for the Dodgers this season.  Sheehan has allowed 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners in 20 innings.  The Dodgers also have a tired bullpen playing for an 8th consecutive day.  

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Lakers/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.  Now Durant has been downgraded to questionable for Game 3 with that same knee injury, and he clearly won't be 100% if he plays.

The Rockets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season and will shut down the Lakers in Game 3 at home.  The Lakers have been dominant defensively since losing Reaves and Doncic.  They have held their last five opponents to just 95 points per game and will limit the Rockets again.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/Astros OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  The Astros are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 11 or more combined runs in five of those six games against the light-hitting Cardinals and Guardians.

Now they must face the offensive juggernaut in the New York Yankees who are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.  And the Yankees are clearly capable of coming close to covering this total on their own against Lance McCullers and this putrid Houston bullpen that has posted a 5.75 ERA on the season.

McCullers is 1-1 with a 6.20 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 3-1 in Will Warren's last four starts with 17, 21 and 10 combined runs in the three OVERS.  He has allowed 3 homers in his last four starts and he is due some regression here against one of the best lineups he has seen this season.  Warren allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-7 loss to the Astros in his last start against them.  

The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nationals/White Sox OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6-2 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 21 of those 26 games.  This total of 9 is actually too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .253 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.37 ERA this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The White Sox are a dead nuts OVER team going 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.  That includes 16 and 18 combined runs with the Diamondbacks in two of their last three games.  This total is actually pretty short for a game involving the White Sox right now too.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket with temps in the 60's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Chicago.  Miles Mikolas will get rocked like he always does.  He is 0-3 with a 9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP this season allowing 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 2/3 innings.  Erick Fedde is 0-3 with a 3.92 ERA, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 20 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 9

The Braves are scoring 5.8 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The Braves are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games with 9, 14, 15 and 13 combined runs.

The Phillies are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 15, 9 and 11 combined runs with the Cubs.  They are finally getting their bats going and are too talented offensively to stay down for long.  But their staff has been terrible this season as they allow 5.6 runs per game.

The Braves should hang a big number on Andrew Painter, who is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP allowing 9 earned runs in 18 11/3 innings this season.  Painter just faced the Braves in his last start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings on April 19th.  The advantage goes to Atlanta's hitters getting to see him again for the 2nd time in less than a week.

Grant Holmes is 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts for the Braves this season allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  Holmes allowed 2 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings opposite Painter in that start on April 19th.  Getting to face him again for the 2nd time in less than a week is a big advantage to Philadelphia hitters as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +3

Teams down 2-0 in a series and returning home have been a great bet in the NBA for years.  The team up 2-0 tends to relax, and the team down 2-0 tends to play like they need it like blood.  That will be the case for the Raptors and Cavs tonight.

Brandon Ingram will have a bounce back game after being terrible in the first two games of this series.  Both Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett will continue to play well, and the Raptors should get more from their role players in the comfort of their home fans.  Not to mention, there's a chance Immanuel Quickley returns from a hamstring injury after sitting the first two games of this series, which would be a huge boost.

No question the Cavs are due some regression in the shooting departments after hitting 54.3% in Game 1 and 53% in Game 2.  They have also shot better than 40% from 3 in this series thus far.  Their role players won't be nearly as comfortable on the road in this one.  

The Raptors won all three regular season meetings with the Cavs and have had to play four of five meetings on the road thus far.  They get their revenge here and get back in this series with an outright victory in Game 3, though we'll take the +3 for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The White Sox are a dead nuts OVER team going 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  That includes 16 and 18 combined runs with the Diamondbacks in the first two games of this series.

The Diamondbacks are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six games, and 13 or more combined runs in four of them.  Both teams have terrible bullpens with the White Sox with a 5.75 ERA and the Diamondbacks with a 4.60 ERA.  And both Mike Soroka and Davis Martin are due some regression today against these red hot lineups.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Phillies/Cubs NL No-Brainer on OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Phillies and Cubs today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left field at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field this afternoon.

The Cubs are really raking at the plate right now during their 9-1 run in their last 10 games.  They have scored 7 runs or more in seven of those 10 games and are capable of covering this total on their own.

The Cubs should stay hot against Christopher Sanchez and this suspect Philadelphia bullpen.  They have posted a 4.47 ERA as a bullpen this season.  Sanchez is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago, allowing 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.

The Phillies are used to seeing Edward Cabrera who came over from the Marlins to the Cubs.  Cabrera is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA in his last four starts against the Phillies, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 21 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight. The Phillies and Cubs have gone for 11 or more combined runs in four of their six meetings in 2026 and 9 or more runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 20 of those 25 games.  This total of 9 is actually too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .253 and scoring 5.7 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.37 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 120 2/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The Braves are scoring 5.7 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 10 games overall.  Both lineups should have their way with these two starting pitchers and bullpens tonight.

Cade Cavalli is 0-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five starts for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed 13 runs, 9 earned, and 34 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  JR Ritchie will be making his MLB debut for the Braves and I don't expect it to go well for him.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings in this series with 13, 15 and 14 combined runs.  It will be more of the same in Game 4 this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pistons UNDER 219

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall and have been in playoff mode in all five games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

I expect a big defensive effort from the Pistons tonight after losing Game 1.  I expect them to hold the Magic to 100 points or fewer to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 219 ticket.  This total has been set way too high.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Magic/Pistons ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -8.5

The Detroit Pistons ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating in the regular season only trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder in that department.  After a lackluster defensive effort in Game 1, expect the Pistons to come out with their hair on fire defensively and to shut down the Magic tonight.

The Pistons got 39 points from Cade Cunningham in Game 1 but not much from anyone else.  Jalen Duren in particular was disappointing with 8 points and 7 rebounds on only 4 shot attempts.  Expect him to have a massive bounce back game. I also expect the Pistons to get more from their role players, most notably their three best shooters in Harris, Robinson and Huerter who were non-factors in Game 1.

I love backing good teams like the Pistons coming off a loss in the playoffs.  Teams who lost Game 1 as a favorite have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS in Game 2 in the last 13 series.  Teams that lost Game 1 as a favorite of -7 or more have gone 33-8 SU & 25-12-4 ATS in Game 2 over the last 20 years.  This is the ultimate bounce back blowout spot for Detroit tonight.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 17-6-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 24 games.  This total of 9 is actually too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .252 and scoring 5.7 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.51 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.1 runs per game.

The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They have scored at least 4 runs in eight of their last nine games overall.  Both lineups should have their way with these two starting pitchers and bullpens tonight.

Zack Littell is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in four games this season allowing 15 earned runs and 7 homers in 19 innings.  Littell was rocked for 8 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against the Giants.  The OVER is 4-0 in his last four starts with 12 or more combined runs in all four.

Didier Fuentes will be making his first start of the season for the Braves as they make this a bullpen game.  Fuentes has allowed a whopping 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 14 innings in his last four starts for a 12.86 ERA dating back to last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Lakers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.  Even if Durant returns for Game 2, he won't be anywhere near 100%.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's clearly not going to happen again.  Neither is Luke Kennard scoring 27 points on 5-of-5 3-point shooting.  The Rockets will make the proper adjustments in this one and really limit the Lakers offensively to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 208.5 ticket.

The Lakers have been dominant defensively since losing Reaves and Doncic.  They have held their last four opponents to 95.3 points per game.  I think they can hold the Rockets down again even if Durant returns.  LeBron will milk every second of the shot clock in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on A's/Mariners OVER 7.5

The A's are a perfect 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.  They have scored 6 runs or more three times.  The Mariners have scored at least 4 runs in three consecutive games, and both lineups should stay hot against these two gas can starting pitchers tonight.

Jacob Lopez is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts for the A's this season while allowing 13 earned runs and 35 base runners in 18 1/3 innings.  Lopez was rocked for 9 earned runs in 2 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Mariners in his lone career start against them.

Luis Castillo is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in four starts for the Mariners this season while allowing 11 earned runs and 32 base runners in 18 1/3 innings.  He has been rocked for 15 runs, 11 earned, in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Padres/Rockies OVER 11

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11 ticket between the Padres and Rockies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  It was a similar forecast the last two days when the Rockies and Dodgers combined for 15 runs on Sunday and 15 more runs on Monday.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockies and Padres despite all six of those games being played at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  Both teams will really get their bats going tonight with this forecast.  The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -138

The Padres have the rest advantage after having Monday off while the Rockies were completing a 4-game series with the Dodgers.  The Padres are 13-2 in their last 15 games overall and should stay hot in Game 1 tonight.  They have a big advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Randy Vasquez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 1-0 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts this season while allowing just 6 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings with 25 K's.  Vasquez has owned the Rockies, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings with 20 K's in his last three starts against them for a 1.53 ERA.

The Rockies will be making this a bullpen game and their bullpen is taxed after two straight high-scoring games against the Dodgers.  The Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Rockies.  Bet the Padres Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Spurs NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 220.5

The Portland Trail Blazers ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating over their final 15 games of the regular season.  The Spurs ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating for the entire season.  These are two elite defensive teams, and that played out in Game 1.

The Spurs beat the Blazers 111-98 for just 209 combined points in Game 1.  The Spurs even shot lights out from 3 going 15-of-33 (45.5%) yet still only scored 111 points.  The Blazers shot just 26.3% from 3, but they were the 3rd-worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA in the regular season so it's not what they do.

The Blazers rely on midrange jump shots and getting to the rim and getting fouled.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as the Spurs committed the 3rd-fewest fouls in the NBA in the regular season.  The Blazers also got their first taste of Victor Wembenyama after dodging him in their three regular season meetings.  It did not go well for them scoring just 98 points in Game 1, and it won't go well for them tonight either.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blazers and Spurs with 217 or fewer combined points in four of those six meetings.  This total of 220.5 has been set too high again for Game 2 tonight.  The Spurs won't shoot that well again, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Cubs OVER 8.5

This will be a series rematch from just a week ago when the Cubs and Phillies met in Philadelphia for a 3-game set.  They combined for 20, 14 and 13 runs as all three games sailed OVER the total.  After going for just 6 combined runs in Game 1 of this series, runs should be plentiful at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field in Game 2 with temps in the 60's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.

Familiarity favors the offenses, and both offenses will get to see Jesus Luzardo and Shota Imanaga for the 2nd time in a week as both just faced off on April 15th in Philadelphia.  Luzardo was rocked for 8 earned runs and 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 11-2 loss and 13 combined runs.

Both bullpens have key injuries right now which will also be a factor.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.  This total of 8.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -125

The Chicago Cubs are rolling right now going 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They have scored 7 runs or more in five of their last eight games.  The Philadelphia Phillies are 0-6 in their last six games overall while scoring a total of 10 runs in those six games for an average of 1.7 runs per game.

The Cubs also have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Shota Imanaga is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 22 innings with 31 K's.  He held the Phillies to one earned run with 11 K's in 6 innings of an 11-2 win on April 15th less than a week ago.

Opposite Imanaga was Jesus Luzardo in that 11-2 win.  Luzardo was rocked for 8 earned runs and 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings.  He has been a disaster all season going 1-3 with a .794 ERA in four starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Royals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Royals tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Kansas City.  Keep in mind they moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium so runs and home runs should be plentiful in KC all season, especially with the wind blowing out like it is tonight.

Shane Baz is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts for the Orioles this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 33 base runners in 22 innings.  Baz is 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in two career starts against the Royals, allowing 7 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.

Kris Bubic is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts for the Royals this season allowing 10 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 6.37 ERA this season.  And both bullpens are taxed after last night's 12-inning marathon.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Braves/Nationals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Braves and Nationals tonight.  There will be steady 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Washington.  These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday even with the wind blowing in.

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-6-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 18 of those 23 games.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .250 and scoring 5.4 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.57 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 114 2/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The Braves are scoring 5.7 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They should put youngster Foster Griffin in his place.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 8-7 win over the Pirates in his last start.  Reynaldo Lopez is coming off his worst start of the season allowing 4 runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings of a 6-5 win over the Marlins.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7.5

The Denver Nuggets have notoriously been great in Game 1 and terrible in Game 2 after winning in Game 1 at home.  They have actually lost four of their last five Game 2 home games outright after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  I think they are ripe for the picking tonight.

The Timberwolves had it down to a 2-point game late in the 4th quarter in Game 1 before letting go of the rope in a 116-105 loss.  I think they come back with a better effort in Game 2, especially after Anthony Edwards shook off the rust from missing so much time down the stretch of the regular season.

The Nuggets got a favorable whistle in Game 1 and capitalized by going 30-of-33 from the FT line.  The Timberwolves went just 14-of-19.  I think the whistle will be a little more favorable for Minnesota in the rematch tonight, which will allow them to stay within this 7.5-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.  I also trust head coach Chris Finch to make the proper adjustments, which is something he has been great at in getting the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals in consecutive seasons.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Monday.

15* Hawks/Knicks NBC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6.5

The Atlanta Hawks lost 113-102 at New York in Game 1 as 6-point dogs.  I don't think this adjustment up to 6.5 is warranted for Game 2, and I'll gladly take the value in this clear motivated bounce-back spot.

The Hawks shot 14-of-37 (38%) from 3 and 12-of-19 (63%) from the FT line in Game 1.  The Knicks shot 12-of-25 (48%) from 3 and 25-of-30 (83%) from the FT line.  No question the Knicks are not going to shoot it any better than they did, and if anything the Hawks are due some positive shooting regression especially from the FT line.

The Hawks are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games overall and were one of the best teams in the East down the stretch when they were healthy, which is what they are now heading into Game 2.  One of their losses came in a game they rested starters against the Heat, too.  And two of them came by 6 points or fewer.  I really like this Atlanta team and think this series is far from over.  They are live underdogs here in Game 2.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Cubs OVER 7.5

This will be a series rematch from just a week ago when the Cubs and Phillies met in Philadelphia for a 3-game set.  They combined for 20, 14 and 13 runs as all three games sailed OVER the total, and it will be more of the same in Game 1 tonight.

Aaron Nola was rocked for 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Cubs on April 14th in Game 2 of that series.  Getting to see him again so quickly will be a huge advantage for Chicago hitters.  The Cubs are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.

Colin Rea has made one start and three relief appearances for the Cubs this season with a 3.63 ERA allowing 7 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.  Rea allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Phillies which resulted in 12 combined runs.  

Both bullpens have key injuries right now which will also be a factor.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings with 9 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Royals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Royals tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Kansas City.  Keep in mind they moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium so runs and home runs should be plentiful in KC all season, especially with the wind blowing out like it is tonight.

Kyle Bradish is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts for the Orioles this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 32 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Seth Lugo is clearly due some regression after opening 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts for the Royals this season.  Lugo has allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 hits in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Raptors/Cavs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +9.5

Everything went Cleveland's way in Game 1 and they still only won by 13.  The Cavs shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and got a playoff career high 24 points from Max Strus.  I have to think they won't shoot that well again, and the Raptors will make some adjustments to how they defend Harden and Mitchell and not play as much drop coverage.

Immanuel Quickley sat out Game 1 with a hamstring injury.  He practiced on Sunday and there's a chance he returns in Game 2, but this line indicates he isn't playing.  Consider the Cavs were 8.5-point favorites for Game 1 and now 9.5-point favorites for Game 2.  That adjustment up isn't warranted in my opinion, and if Quickley does play this line will crash, but I don't think it goes any higher either way.

The Raptors went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Cavaliers in the regular season including two outright upsets on the road.  They won all three meetings by double-digits, so they clearly match up well with the Cavs even though it didn't show in Game 1.  I think it shows in Game 2 tonight and this one goes down to the wire.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night Line Mistake on Braves/Nationals OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 15-6-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 17 of those 22 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .256 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.37 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 110 2/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.1 runs per game.

The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are capable of covering this total on their own against Jake Irvin, who is 1-2 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 28 base runners in 19 innings.  Irvin went 9-13 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 33 starts last season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Bryce Elder has been impressive for the Braves this season but is clearly due some regression.  He went 2-5 with a 6.52 ERA in 10 starts in 2024 and 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA in 28 starts in 2025.  His 0.77 ERA to this point in 2026 is unsustainable.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Nationals, who will do enough off him to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Rays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays are a dead nuts OVER team going 15-6 OVER in all games this season with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 21 games.  This total of 8 is definitely too short for a game involving the Rays right now.  They are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

The Reds have a pretty talented lineup that is starting to hit the ball well scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last nine games overall.  They have gone 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 12 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Reds right now as well.

Rhett Lowder was getting lucky in his first few starts but has regressed big time.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts, and this looks like it will be his toughest start of the season after facing the Giants, Marlins, Rangers and Red Sox thus far.

The Rays will make this a bullpen game with Jesse Scholtens getting the bulk of the innings.  The Rays have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.38 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Blazers/Spurs NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -10.5

The San Antonio Spurs are legit title contenders that won the season series with the Oklahoma City Thunder to prove how good they can be.  Yet the Spurs are only 10.5-point home favorites over the Blazers, while the Thunder are 14-point home favorites over the Suns.  The Suns were favored over the Blazers in the play-in.

The Blazers came back from double-digits down against the Suns in the 4th quarter to earn a 114-110 win and the 7th seed in the West.  Teams that qualify for the playoffs through the play-in have notoriously been a bad bet in Game 1.  They tend to exhale, and I think that will be the case for the Blazers here, while the Spurs are rested and will be a full go from the jump.

It's amazing that Portland played San Antonio three times this season and Victor Wembenyama didn't play in any of those three games.  The Spurs still went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with two double-digits victories.  I think the Blazers having to see Wembenyama in person for the first time this season in this series is a huge disadvantage to them.  They don't know what's coming and just how hard this guy is to deal with.

The problem with the Blazers is they are the worst shooting team in the playoffs.  They are the 3rd-worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 34.3%.  Only the Nets and Kings were worse in the regular season.  This is a terrible matchup for them because they rely on getting to the rim, and Wembenyama erases that.  Portland also relies on shooting FT's, and San Antonio ranks 4th in the NBA in fewest fouls per game.  Nightmare matchup for the Blazers starting with Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* Magic/Pistons NBC No-Brainer on Detroit -8.5

The No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons are the most disrespected team entering the NBA playoffs.  They are the 4th-favorite to win the East to show just how undervalued they are.  And I think they are being undervalued again as only 8.5-point home favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Pistons are fully healthy coming into the playoffs and showed off their depth without Cade Cunningham going 9-1 ATS without him down the stretch.  But Cunningham returned for a couple games to shake the rust off, and he should be a full go heading into the playoffs.  The Pistons rank 2nd in net rating in the NBA only behind the Thunder in the regular season.  And they had the No. 1 seed clinched for their last several games to boot.

This is a great spot to fade the Magic.  They lost by 12 to the 76ers on Wednesday before bouncing back with a home win over the Hornets on Friday to earn the 8th seed.  Teams that make it into the playoffs from the play-in tend to have a letdown in that first real playoff game, especially when listed as the 8th seed.  I think that will be the case for the Magic here as they take a breather, while the Pistons are a full go from the jump.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* Suns/Thunder ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -14

The Phoenix Suns are a tired, beat up team.  After losing to the Blazers at home on Tuesday, they came back and beat the short-handed Warriors at home on Friday.  Now they have just one day to get ready for the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Teams like the Suns that qualify for the playoffs through the play-in are a notoriously bad bet in Game 1 of their first playoff series.  They tend to exhale and not show up.  I know the rested Thunder are going to show up and be a full go from the jump and put it on the Suns in this one.

Phoenix played without Mark Williams (11.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG) in the win over the Warriors on Friday, and he is unlikely to be healthy enough to play against the Thunder here two days later.  Grayson Allen (16.5 PPG) is questionable as well.  They will miss Williams' size big time against the Thunder, and if Allen sits they will miss his shooting, but I like the Thunder to roll either way.

In two meetings where the Thunder were motivated this season they beat the Suns 138-89 in the NBA Cup and 136-109 on the road on February 11th.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Suns in which they didn't rest starters.  This is a terrible matchup for Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are 15-5 OVER in their last 20 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 20 games.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 6.1 runs per game this season.

The Cardinals are 12-7-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game this season.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 and 12 runs in Game 2 of this series, and this total of 8.5 has been set too short for Game 3 again today.

Matthew Liberatore is 0-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in four starts for the Cardinals this season while allowing 10 earned runs, 5 homers and 33 base runners in 21 innings.  He is backed by a terrible St. Louis bullpen that has posted a 5.33 ERA this season.

Mike Burrows is 1-3 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in four starts for the Astros this season while allowing 16 earned runs, 5 homers and 40 base runners in 22 innings.  He is backed by an even worse Houston Bullpen that has posted a 6.12 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Twins OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Reds and Twins today.  There will be steady 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Minnesota this afternoon.  Home runs should be plentiful in this one.

The Twins have really been an OVER team this season scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game.  They should hang a big number on Brady SInger, who is 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 30 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Singer allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Minnesota.

The Reds should also get to Bailey Ober, who is 2-0 with a 5.49 ERA in four starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings.  Ober has allowed 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati.  The Twins have a suspect bullpen with a 4.95 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants/Nationals OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 15-5-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 17 of those 21 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .256 and scoring 5.6 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.80 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 102 1/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.4 runs per game.

The Giants beat the Nationals 10-5 in Game 1 for 15 combined runs and 7-6 in Game 2 for 13 combined runs.  Game 2 went 12 innings so both bullpens are taxed.  And neither of these starters is likely to go deep in this game as both have issues.  Robbie Ray has control issues with 10 walks in 22 1/3 innings.

The Giants are capable of covering this total on their own against Miles Mikolas.  He went 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA in 35 starts in 2023, 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 32 starts in 2024 and 8-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 31 starts in 2025.  Mikolas has been even worse thus far in 2026, going 0-3 with an 11.49 ERA and 2.17 WHIP while allowing 20 earned runs, 6 homers and 34 base runners in 15 2/3 innings.

Ray is 3-5 with a 5.21 ERA in nine career starts against the Nationals.  Mikolas has a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants while allowing 7 earned runs in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Rays/Pirates OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Rays and Pirates today.  There will be steady 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Pittsburgh this afternoon, and this total of 7.5 is too short as a result.  Both bullpens are absolutely taxed after 13-inning marathon yesterday that saw 15 combined runs.  

These are two of the most underrated offenses in baseball with the Rays scoring 5.0 runs per game and the Pirates 5.1 runs per game.  The Rays are 14-6 OVER in all games this season with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 20 games.  This total of 7.5 is definitely too short for a game involving the Rays.

Shane McClanahan is working his way back from injury and hasn't been that sharp.  He is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA in three starts this season allowing 8 runs, 6 earned and 11 walks in 13 2/3 innings.  He has been on a pitch count, and this Tampa Bay bullpen will get exposed again.  The Rays have a 5.40 ERA as a bullpen this season.

Mitch Keller is 1-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in four starts for the Pirates this season.  But this looks like his toughest test yet against the hot-hitting Rays.  Keller has allowed 8 runs, 4 earned, in 10 innings in two career starts against Tampa Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Padres/Angels MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

The Angels are a dead nuts OVER team with a great lineup and a terrible pitching staff.  They have gone 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 12 games.  They are scoring 7.8 runs per game in their last eight games, and they are allowing 4.7 runs per game on the season.

The San Diego Padres have been hitting the cover off the ball scoring 4 runs or more in eight of their last nine games and 5 runs or more in seven of them.  Both hot offenses should have their way with these two struggling starting pitchers tonight.  Especially with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.

Many though German Marquez would be a lot better now that he's out of Colorado.  That hasn't been the case.  Marquez is 2-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 innings despite two of those starts coming at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Yusei Kikuchi has been even worse for the Angels, going 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four starts while allowing 15 earned runs, 3 homers and 34 base runners in 18 innings.  Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in four career starts against the Padres, allowing 11 earned runs, 4 homers and 33 base runners in 20 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.