15* Big East Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Creighton OVER 166

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Friars rank 21st in adjusted tempo, 23rd in adjusted offense and 199th in adjusted defense.  They just have a way of getting their opponents to get in up-tempo shootouts with them.

Creighton will gladly oblige.  Providence beat Creighton 93-88 in their first meeting this season for 181 combined points.  Amazingly, neither team shot it all that well with Providence going 6-of-25 (24%) from 3-point range and Creighton 10-of-30 (33.3%) from 3.  There's actually room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +2.5

West Virginia needs a big finish to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Mountaineers have lost three in a row to play themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.  It starts with a home win over BYU Saturday.

BYU is just much less potent without second-leading scorer Richie Saunders (18.1 PPG) out for the season.  The Cougars consistently get too much respect, going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have gone 3-6 SU in their last nine games with narrow wins over Baylor by 5 and Colorado in OT at home.  They were just upset as 14.5-point home favorites by UCF, too.

West Virginia quietly has one of the best home-court advantages in the Big 12.  It's a lot of travel for opponents, especially for BYU.  The Mountaineers are 13-3 SU at home this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE WEEK on North Dakota +12.5

North Dakota State has already clinched the Summit League regular season title outright.  The Bison are really lacking motivation to close out the regular season.  They were blown out by 22 at St. Thomas on Thursday, and now they have just one day off in between games to get ready for North Dakota.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Hawks last played last Saturday, so they have had an entire week to get ready for this game against their most hated rivals.  They will be out for revenge from a 83-66 loss to the Bison in their first meeting this season.  They want this game more and it will show today.  Bet North Dakota Saturday.

15* Kansas/Arizona ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +9.5

Arizona has no business being a 9.5-point favorite over Kansas today.  Asking the Wildcats to win this game by 10-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  I'll gladly take the value with the road underdog Jayhawks in this one.

Kansas beat Arizona 82-78 at home despite playing without the best scorer in the country in Darryn Peterson (19.5 PPG).  Peterson looks motivated now after all the negativity in the media, and was key in their 69-56 win over Houston on Monday.

No question Arizona wants revenge, but the urgency won't be there.  The Wildcats have a 2-game lead for first place in the Big 12 after consecutive road wins over Houston and Baylor.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay -1.5

Green Bay has gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and is playing its best basketball of the season to close.  The Phoenix sit in a tie for 4th in the Horizon League, and a win would assure they get a home game for the first round of the conference Tournament.

The Phoenix are also motivated with this being senior day in their final home game.  They are also rested and ready to go last playing on Sunday, so they have had five days off to rest and prepare to get revenge on Youngstown State, who they lost by 7 to on the road earlier this season.

Youngstown State is a much more tired team with just two days off since a 78-65 road loss to lowly Utah.  The Penguins will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days as well.  They sit at 8-11 in the conference with nothing to play for here.  Bet Green Bay Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson +2

Clemson will be highly motivated for a victory today after four straight losses that have put the Tigers on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers have had an entire week off to rest and get ready to beat Louisville.

The Cardinals are coming off a 77-74 loss at short-handed UNC on Monday and will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They don't have a signature road win all season, and they won't be getting on here, either.  They are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in true road games this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Blazers/Hornets NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte -7.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They have the 6th-best net rating in the NBA in their last 15 games and have been one of the best teams in the NBA in net rating since the start of January.  They are fighting for their playoff lives and max motivated each time they take the court.

The Portland Trail Blazers are also trying to stay in playoff contention, but injuries really have them decimated right now.  They are without their top two scorers in Deni Avdija (24.4 PPG) and Shaedon Sharpe (21.4 PPG).

This is an early 1:10 EST start time, which is something the Hornets are used to.  This is a 10 AM body clock game for the Blazers, something they are not used to.  I don't expect them to handle it well today as they will be sleep walking through the first half.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 Total DOMINATOR on Fordham/VCU UNDER 145

Fordham is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 144 or fewer combined points in 16 of those 18 games.  This total of 145 is way too high for a game involving Fordham.

That's especially the case when they already played a defensive battle against VCU in their first meeting this season.  VCU won 63-59 at Fordham for 122 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today, and this should be a blowout with VCU favored by 12.5 so fouls shouldn't come into play at the end.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's +4.5

St. Joe's is 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  The Hawks are max motivated to finish strong currently sitting in 4th place in the Atlantic 10.  The top four teams get a double-bye in the conference tournament.

Rhode Island has been flat as a pancake since its upset win over Saint Louis.  The Rams are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a pair of blowout losses to La Salle by 13 and St. Bonaventure by 18, who teams ranked worse than them in the standings.  They are 6-9 in conference play with little to play for the rest of the way.  Bet St. Joe's Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +14

This is the ultimate letdown spot for UConn after the beat down they just put on St. John's.  That was a rare blowout win for the Huskies, who are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall with nine wins by 12 points or fewer.  They aren't blowing anyone out, so it was just an off game for the Red Storm.

Now the Huskies will be flat as a pancake hosting Seton Hall, which needs a signature win to improve its tournament resume.  They nearly had it in a 69-64 loss to UConn in their first meeting this season as 6.5-point home dogs.  This is a big adjustment for the rematch at +14.  Especially since the Pirates have had a week off coming into this game to rest and prepare to beat the Huskies.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Houston UNDER 140.5

The Houston Cougars are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 353rd in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall with 143 or fewer combined points in all eight games.

The Colorado Buffaloes are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They are 19.5-point underdogs to Houston in this game, so fouls shouldn't come into play at the end.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Thunder ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 234

Defensive intensity will be high tonight in this contest between two of the top teams in the West in the Nuggets and Thunder.  Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets, who will be without Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon as well.  That's three of their top four scorers.

The Thunder are an elite defensive team.  They do get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back tonight, but he won't be 100% and will be on a minutes limit.  They get Chet Holmgren back which helps them much more defensively than it does on offense.   I think Shai's return has inflated this number.

The Thunder and Nuggets have combined for 232 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings, and 226 or fewer in five of those.  They just know each other inside and out, and this game will be more of a defensive battle than this line suggests.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -4.5

South Alabama is in a 4-way tie for first place in the Sun Belt with tonight being the regular season finale for all teams.  The Jaguars are 11-6 in the conference, while Southern Miss is 8-9 in the conference and just playing for pride.

South Alabama is the better, more motivated team playing at home tonight.  The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They handled Troy by 11 and ULM by 35 in their last two games coming in to improve to 10-3 SU at home this season.

Southern Miss is just 3-11 SU on the road this season.  The Eagles already lost 84-78 at home to South Alabama.  They shot well too hitting 48% from the field and 40% from 3-point range, so they aren't due any positive shooting regression in the rematch.  The Jaguars want it more and will take it at home tonight.  Bet South Alabama Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Knicks/Bucks OVER 218

The Milwaukee Bucks are scoring a ton since trading for Cam Thomas to bolster their bench.  They are 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall scoring 116 or more points in four of those games.  They are coming off 234 combined points with the Cavs who were without Harden and Mitchell.  That followed up 245 combined points with the Heat.

The Knicks are 3rd in offensive rating this season.  They should bust out of their funk against a Bucks team that isn't great defensively.  The Bucks have allowed 116 or more points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.  The Bucks and Knicks have combined for at least 223 points in four consecutive meetings, and 223 or more in eight of their last nine meetings overall.  This total of 218 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Illinois FOX No-Brainer on Illinois +1.5

I love the spot for Illinois tonight.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 95-94 (OT) loss at UCLA on Saturday where they blew a 23-point lead.  They will be pissed off, and they will be rested and ready to go after having the last five days off to prepare for this huge showdown with Michigan.

The Wolverines don't have that same luxury.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days with just two days off since a 77-67 home win over Minnesota as 21.5-point favorites.  That followed up a 68-63 loss as 3.5-point favorites to Duke on a neutral last weekend.

Michigan has a 3-game lead for 1st place in the Big Ten with three games remaining.  The Wolverines can afford this loss and still win the conference outright with one more victory.  Illinois is the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight, and it will be a raucous home crowd where the Fighting Illini are 13-2 SU at home this season.  Bet Illinois Friday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Coastal Carolina +6

Coastal Carolina is 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Chanticleers' three losses during this stretch have come by 2, 4 and 5 point.  They haven't lost by more than 5 points in any game since January 3rd.

That's why getting 6 points with them is such a nice value here.  That's especially the case considering they will be out for revenge for one of those narrow losses, falling 67-65 at home to James Madison just 10 days ago on January 10th.

Coastal Carolina shot just 7-of-29 (24.1%) from 3-point range in that 2-point loss to the Dukes.  It's safe to say they will have some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  JMU is overvalued off a 6-game winning streak with three wins by exactly 2 points.  The Dukes are a tired team playing their 2nd game in 3 days as well.  Bet Coastal Carolina Friday.

20* Dayton/George Washington ESPN 2 No-Brainer on George Washington -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Dayton Flyers.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three of those wins at home.  They are coming off a 77-62 home win over the best team in the Atlantic 10 in St. Louis.  It's only human nature for them to let down here.

George Washington wants revenge from a 79-72 road loss at Dayton in their first meeting this season.  The Revolutionaries get them at home this time around where they are 11-3 SU this season, and the Flyers are just 4-5 SU on the road.

The Revolutionaries will be the fresher, more prepared team.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while the Flyers will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and their 5th game in 13 days.  Bet George Washington Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +19.5

This will be a rematch from February 18th just over a week ago when Louisiana-Monroe nearly upset Troy in a 77-76 loss as 17.5-point home dogs.  This despite the Warhawks shooting just 20% from 3-point range.

Now they are catching 19.5 points on the road in the rematch and it's too much again.  This Troy team has been grossly overvalued limping to the finish line going 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Monroe is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall and is undervalued due to its poor record, but the Warhawks keep showing up.

The Trojans have all the pressure on them trying to clinch at least a share of the Sun Belt regular season title as they are in a 4-way tie heading into this finale.  They aren't concerned with getting margin, they just know they need to win to earn a share.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Lakers -5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after dropping their last two games to the Celtics and Magic.  They are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the short-handed Phoenix Suns.

The Suns lost by 15 at home to the Blazers who were missing Deni Avidja and Shaeden Sharpe.  They lost by 16 at home to the Celtics, who were without Jaylen Brown.  They just aren't playing well right now without their two best players in Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks.

The Suns managed just 77 points against the Blazers and 81 points against the Celtics in their last two games without those guys.  This may be the worst offense in the NBA in its current state, and they certainly don't have the firepower to match this healthy Lakers squad.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have no incentive to tank and are playing hard.  They are 7-6 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off a pair of wins over playoff contenders in the Warriors and 76ers.

The Jazz have incentive to tank and they are blatantly doing it right now.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 16 at home to Portland, by 9 at tanking Memphis and by 20 at Houston.

The Jazz remain without their four best players in Markkanen, George, Jackson Jr. and Nurkic.  The team they are putting on the court is one of the worst teams in the NBA right now.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-Davis ML +115

UC-Davis wants revenge from a 75-69 road loss at Hawaii in their first meeting this season.  The Aggies shot just 4-of-16 (25%) from 3 while the Rainbow Warriors shot 7-of-16 (43.8%) from 3 in that game which really was the difference.

UC-Davis is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the Big West.  Hawaii has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country for the last few decades because it's just tougher for them to travel to the mainland, and vice versa for their opponents traveling to the islands.  Hawaii is 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS in true road games this season.

The Rainbow Warriors have been overvalued for weeks going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Aggies have been undervalued for weeks going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with both losses coming on the road by 1 to CS-Fullerton and at UC-San Diego.  Wrong team favored here. Bet UC-Davis on the money line Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are fighting for their playoff lives sitting in 9th place in the West right now.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall with their three losses coming to two of the best teams in the West in the Timberwolves (twice) and Nuggets.

Now the Blazers face a tanking Chicago Bulls team that they should handle.  The Bulls are 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and clearly not concerned with winning games right now.  They traded away Vucevic, White and Dosunmu and really failed to replace them.  They are coming off a 32-point home loss to the Hornets, and this one will get ugly as well.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets -12.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have the 4th-best net rating in the NBA in their last 15 games and have been one of the best teams in the NBA in net rating since the start of January.

While the Hornets are fully healthy and fighting for their playoff lives, the Indiana Pacers are clearly in tank mode.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games since the All-STar Break with losses to the lowly Wizards by 13 and 7 points, a home loss to the Mavericks and a 21-point home loss to the 76ers.  The Hornets are far and away the best team they have played since the break.

The Pacers are without Siakam, Zubac and Nesmith tonight and Nembhard is questionable.  The team they will be putting on the court tonight is one of the worst in the NBA.  Charlotte won by 17 at Washington and by 32 at Chicago in its last two games and will make easy work of tanking Indiana as well.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +1.5

Loyola-Marymount wants revenge from a 78-76 road loss at Washington State in their first meeting this season.  The Cougars shot 10-of-23 (43.5%) from 3-point range and 92.3% from the FT line in that game yet still only won by 2 at home.

These are two teams headed in opposite directions ahead of this rematch.  Washington State is 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall.  Loyola-Marymount is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall despite playing four of those five games on the road.

Washington State is just 1-9 SU on the road this season with the one win coming by 5 against Portland.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Loyola-Marymount Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado -6.5

Colorado has had one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball for decades.  That's the case again this season as the Buffaloes are 12-4 SU at home this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three Big 12 home games beating Oklahoma State by 14, Arizona State by 8 and TCU by 26.  I expect another blowout victory in their favor tonight.

Kansas State is a dead team walking.  The Wildcats fired head coach Jerome Tang.  They had the usual dead cat bounce game upsetting Baylor 90-74 at home in their first game without him.  They were aided by Baylor shooting 3-of-24 (12.5%) from 3 in that game.

Reality set in last time out and Kansas State played zero defense in a 100-72 road loss to Texas Tech.  That was Texas Tech's first game without one of the best players in the country in JT Toppin, yet they still won by 28 over this dead K-State team.  The Wildcats are 1-8 SU in true road games this season.  Bet Colorado Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +14

The Sacramento Kings (13-46) have the worst record in the NBA.  They have some room to spare as they can afford to win several more games and still secure that worst record.  They finally showed some life coming out of the All-Star Break with a cover against the Spurs and an outright upset win over the Grizzlies in their last two games.

The Houston Rockets are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.  They have gone 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Amazingly, they have just two wins by double-digits in their last 25 games, so they aren't getting margin on anyone.  Asking them to win this game by 15-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

That's especially the case with the Rockets without three key players tonight in Steven Adams, Amen Thompson (17.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 5.3 APG) and Jae'Sean Tate.  This will be just the 2nd game all season that Thompson has missed, and I don't think his loss is being factored into this line enough.

The Kings are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Rockets this season pulling off the outright upset as 12.5 and 14.5-point dogs.  Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset again tonight, but at the very least they should stay within this inflated 14-point spread.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Xavier/Providence OVER 170.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-7 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER In road games.  The Musketeers rank 38th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 86th in adjusted offense and 122nd in adjusted defense.

Providence has a similar profile going 19-8 OVER in all games this season including 10-4 OVER in home games.  The Friars play even faster, ranking 18th in adjusted tempo, 41st in average length of offensive possession, 29th in adjusted offense and 190th in adjusted defense.

This will be a rematch from January 10th when Xavier beat Providence 97-84 for 181 combined points.  Neither team lit it up with Providence going 8-of-32 (25%) from 3-point range and Xavier 12-of-30 (40%) from 3.  And there were no fouls late with the game already decided.  We have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total of 170.5 plus the possibility of fouls coming into play with this game expected to be close.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tulsa/Tulane OVER 156

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8 OVER in all games this season including 8-2 OVER in true road games.  What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Golden Hurricane haven't played a single OT game all season.  They rank 130th in adjusted tempo, 97th in average length of offensive possession, 34th in adjusted offense and 170th in adjusted defense.

Tulane has great guard play with its top three scorers in Brumbaugh (18.9 PPG), Woods (13.1 PPG) and Williams Jr. (12.1 PPG) playing in every game this season.  Their chemistry has been great down the stretch with four straight wins.  They put up 77 points on North Texas and 81 on Rice in their last two games, two teams that play at a snail's pace.  That's not Tulsa.  This has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska-Omaha ML -122

Nebraska-Omaha has been dominant since getting Paul Djobet (18.8 PPG, 43.7% 3-pointers) back from injury.  He has missed 13 games this season.  The Mavericks are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall including two wins over Denver and another over St. Thomas, the best team in the Summit League.

South Dakota has tanked since losing its best player in Isaac Bruns (20.7 PPG, 38.7% 3-pointers).  The Coyotes have gone 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS in their last eight games without him with their three wins coming against Oral Roberts, UMKC (OT) and South Dakota State (by 1).  Those are the three worst teams in the Summit League.  They also lost to Oral Roberts in the rematch and lost by 20 to Denver in their last two games coming in.

Omaha wants revenge from a 68-64 home loss to South Dakota on January 21st.  Omaha shot a horrendous 1-of-19 (5.3%) from 3-point range in that game yet still only lost by 4.  It's safe to say they will have some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch tonight.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's +1.5

St. Joe's is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  One of those losses came 60-52 at George Mason, and now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around.

The Hawks are 11-3 at home this season.  They Patriots are 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS on the road this season.  The Patriots have really come back down to reality going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 12-point loss at Richmond, a 19-point loss at George Washington and a 15-point home loss to Dayton.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet St. Joe's Wednesday.

15* St. John's/UConn Big East ANNIHILATOR on St. John's +6.5

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 25-3 record this season.  They have 10 wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 10-2 in such games.  They are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall and one of the most overrated teams in the country.

The Huskies have no business being 6.5-point favorites over St. John's tonight.  They lost 81-72 at St. John's in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  What makes that loss even worse is the fact that the Huskies shot 9-of-19 (47.4%) from 3-point range while the Red Storm shot just 5-of-19 (26.3%) from distance, yet it was still a 9-point game in St. John's favor.

The Red Storm are 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They avoided the letdown leading into this game with an easy 81-52 win over Creighton.  That's the same Creighton team that just upset UConn 91-84 as 15.5-point road underdogs the game prior.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland/IU Indy OVER 166.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in Horizon League play when Oakland visits IU Indy.  The Jaguars rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 341st in adjusted defense.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 50th in adjusted tempo, 82nd in adjusted offense and 283rd in adjusted defense.

This will be a rematch from a 103-85 win by IU Indy on January 21st and 188 combined points.  The total for that game was set at 176.5, so we are getting a huge discount here with this total set 10 points lower for the rematch at 166.5.  This adjustment is not warranted.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* UCF/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UCF +13

BYU is coming off two massive games.  The Cougars lost 75-68 at Arizona before bouncing back with a 79-69 home win over Iowa State.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 7 days, and this looks like a letdown spot for them as they host UCF.  They lost second-leading scorer Richie Saunders (18.1 PPG) to a season-ending injury, so they cannot be favored by 13 here without him.

UCF is motivated to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Knights sit at 19-7 overall and 8-6 in Big 12 play and are one of the more underrated teams in the conference.  They are coming off a 73-71 road win at Utah on Saturday and have a short drive to Provo to face BYU in this one.  I think they hang here and stay within this inflated number.  Bet UCF Tuesday.

15* New Mexico/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 149.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Lobos rank 66th in adjusted tempo, 41st in average length of offensive possession and 60th in adjusted offense.  New Mexico and its opponents have combined for at least 150 points in nine of its last 10 games, so this total of 149.5 is very low for a game involving the Lobos.

Nevadao is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Wolf Pack and their opponents have combined for at least at least 153 points in five of their last eight games.  That includes a 80-73 road loss at New Mexico in their first meeting where they shot just 41.7% from the field and the Lobos shot just 38.7% from the field.  Yet they still combined for 153 points.  If anything, both teams will shoot better in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor +8.5

The Arizona Wildcats are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a 73-66 road win at Houston that gave them the inside track to win the Big 12.  They handed Houston its first home loss of the season.  That's a Houston team that is really faltering right now losing three straight for the first time in the Kelvin Sampson era.

Not only is Arizona coming off that massive win, the Wildcats also have another big game on deck Saturday hosting Kansas.  They will be looking for revenge on the Jayhawks after losing on the road to them in their first meeting.  Sandwiched in between is this game against lowly Baylor, which they will not be up for.

This is Baylor's last chance to get a signature win, and it could go far in terms of getting them into the NCAA Tournament.  The Bears will be 'all in' for this game, and they are fully healthy unlike Arizona.  The Wildcats will be without 2nd-leading scorer Koa Peat (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) for this one.  Bet Baylor Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn/Oklahoma OVER 155

Auburn is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 11th in adjusted offense and 100th in adjusted defense.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in four of their last five games overall.  This total of 155 is very short for a game involving Auburn right now.

Oklahoma has a similar profile ranking 29th in adjusted offense and 162nd in adjusted defense.  The Sooners are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall going for 155 or more combined points in four of those five games.  That includes 183 with Vanderbilt, 172 with Georgia and 172 with Kentucky.  This total of 155 is just too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State/Colorado State OVER 147.5

Fresno State is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Bulldogs and their opponents have gone for at least 156 combined points in all four games.  That includes 169 with Utah State, 174 with Wyoming, 158 with New Mexico and 156 with Air Force.  This total of 147.5 is too low for a game involving the Bulldogs right now.

Colorado State is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Rams and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in all four games.  They went for 165 combined points with Air Force, 147 with Wyoming, 177 with UNLV and 157 with San Diego State.  Again, this total of 147.5 is too short for Colorado State right now as well.

This will be a rematch from a 79-69 victory by Fresno State and 148 combined points on January 13th in their first meeting this season.  Neither team shot well with Colorado State going 8-of-29 (27.6%) from 3 and Fresno State making 46.4% from the field.  Colorado State was without leading scorer Kyle Jorgensen (11.9 PPG) for that contest as well, and he's back now.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +22.5

The Michigan Wolverines are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off two huge games against Purdue and Duke, and they have Illinois on deck Friday.  This is the letdown game for them hosting Minnesota.

Minnesota is coming off a pair of impressive blowout wins by 17 at Oregon and by 19 at home against Rutgers.  The Golden Gophers just don't get blown out often due to their style of play, which is extremely slow to limit possessions and give themselves their best chance to be competitive.

Indeed, Minnesota hasn't lost any of its last 17 games by more than 19 points.  The Golden Gophers have just one loss by more than 12 points during this stretch.  They will stay within this inflated 22.5-point spread tonight as well.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* Sun Belt Total DOMINATOR on Southern Miss/Arkansas State OVER 158.5

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Red Wolves rank 16th in adjusted tempo, 8th in average length of offensive possession, 131st in adjusted offense and 187th in adjusted defense.  A total in the 150's is too short for a game involving the Red Wolves right now.

They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 173 points with ULM, 196 points with ULM and 180 points with South Alabama, which was tied 83-83 at the end of regulation for 166 combined points, still easily topping this 158.5-point total.

Southern Miss has played in several high-scoring games of late going for 167 combined points with ODU, 162 with South Alabama and 158 with Marshall in three of its last five games.  The Golden Eagles also like to play fast ranking 114th in adjusted tempo.

This is a rematch from a 93-86 win by Arkansas State and 179 combined points on December 20th in their first meeting this season.  Neither team shot lights out with Arkansas State 8-of-22 (36.4%) from 3 and Southern Miss 7-of-16 (43.8%).  We have 20.5 points to spare here in the rematch with this total at 158.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -5

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference when they are as healthy as they are right now.  It has shown with the Heat going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with their three wins coming by 12, 16 and 31 points.

Now they take on the short-handed Milwaukee Bucks who remain without Giannis.  It did not go well for them last time out in a 122-94 home loss to the Toronto Raptors.  It won't go well for them against an even better team in the Heat tonight.  Miami comes in on two days' rest as well.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Bulls OVER 229

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They have both Josh Giddey and Tre Jones back healthy to lead the offense for the stretch run, and they are a potent offensive team when that's the case.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Hornets tonight with both Bridges (18.2 PPG) and White (18.6 PPG) returning.  Now the Hornets have five players who all average 18.2 points per game or more healthy and available for this game, and they will be an elite offensive team when that's the case.  They already rank 5th in offensive rating in their last 15 games even without some of these guys.

The Hornets and Bulls have combined for at least 239 points in four of their last five meetings.  This total of 229 has been set too low tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their recent surge has been due to two things.  The addition of James Harden (24.7 PPG, 8.2 APG) has opened up their offense, and the return to health of many of their key guys including Evan Mobley and sharp shooter Sam Merrill has helped as well.

After a bad loss to the Thunder on Sunday, the Cavaliers will be highly motivated to bounce back at home tonight.  They have been dominant at home going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games with the wins coming by 26, 25, 30 and 16 points.

The Cavaliers also want revenge on the Knicks after dropping their first two meetings this season both on the road at New York.  That includes blowing a 12-point 4th quarter lead on Christmas Day in a 126-124 loss where they allowed 42 points in the 4th quarter to the Knicks.  They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge in their first home meeting tonight.

The Knicks are a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days after a pair of narrow wins over Houston by 2 at home and Chicago by 6 on the road.  That followed up a 15-point home loss to Detroit.  They have huge home/road splits this season.  The Knicks are just 14-13 SU & 10-17 ATS on the road this season.  The Cavs went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Knicks last season winning by 37 and 19 points in their two home meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +1

The Toronto Raptors made easy work of the Milwaukee Bucks in a 122-94 road win as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  That followed up a 110-101 win in Chicago as 6.5-point favorites in their first game back from the break.

The Raptors are a rested team playing just their 3rd game in 6 days out of the break.  They also get their best player in Scottie Barnes (19.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.6 BPG, 1.3 SPG) back after missing the last game due to personal reasons.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.

The Raptors are certainly better than the Thunder in their current state.  Thunder are without three of their top four scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.8 PPG, 6.4 APG), Jalen Williams (17.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) and Ajay Mitchell (14.1 PPG, 3.7 APG).  They would be without their top four scorers if Chet Holmgren (17.4 PPG, 8.8 APG, 1.9 BPG) doesn't go tonight as he is listed as questionable.

The Thunder were able to get by the lowly Nets and the Cavaliers at home.  They benefited from the Nets shooting 17.1% from 3-point range and shooting 51.2% from 3-point range themselves in the upset win over the Cavs.  Now they are on the road for the first time without all these guys and it will be a different story tonight.  They just don't have the horses to compete with the Raptors on the road in this one.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Coastal Carolina ML -115

Coastal Carolina is 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and has been one of the most underrated teams in the Sun Belt.  The three losses came by 2, 4 and 5 points to three of the top teams in the conference.

The Chanticleers are a rested team playing just their 3rd game in 12 days.  They take on a tired, struggling Georgia State team that will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and their 5th game in 13 days.

Georgia State is 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall with its lone win coming by 2 at home over Georgia Southern, one of the worst teams in the conference.  It looks like they are just ready for the regular season to be over at this point.

Coastal will not take them lightly after losing 89-71 at home to them way back on January 3rd.  Georgia State shot an unsustainable 17-of-30 (56.7%) from 3-point range in that win while Coastal shot just 9-of-29 (31%).  The Chanticleers want revenge and are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet Coastal Carolina on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +7

NC State wants revenge from a 76-61 home loss to Virginia on January 3rd in their first meeting this season.  The Wolfpack have been a much better team since, going 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming at Louisville and at home to Miami by 1.

The Wolfpack are coming off a 82-58 home win over North Carolina last Tuesday.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to get their revenge on Virginia.  And I don't think that rest advantage is being factored into this line enough.

Virginia was just in a war with Miami in a 86-83 win as 7.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  The Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They are in a big lookahead spot with a showdown with top-ranked Duke on deck Saturday.  I don't think they give NC State their full attention, especially after already dominating them on the road in the first matchup.  That will prove detrimental tonight.  Bet NC State Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Rockets OVER 228.5

The Utah Jazz rank 2nd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They will continue to play fast and no defense the rest of the season.  This total of 228.5 is very short for a game involving the Jazz.

That's especially the case with Lauri Markkanen returning tonight.  There's a chance Keyonte George returns as well as he is upgraded to questionable after last playing a full game in January.  That would give them their top two scorers who combine to average more than 50 points per game.  But either way, they are going to play fast and no defense.

Houston has been on quite the under run which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But the Rockets have played a ton of elite defensive teams during this stretch with their last seven games all coming against great defensive teams.  They went for 232 combined points against the Pacers, a team that profiles similarly to the Jazz.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Rockets with 230 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They were 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their five games going into the All-Star Break.  They came out of the break with their worst loss of the season to the Denver Nuggets.  They will be highly motivated to get back on track tonight.

They take on a tired Phoenix Suns team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 113-110 (2 OT) win over the Orlando Magic last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Blazers tonight.

Making matters worse for the Suns is that Dillon Brooks (20.9 PPG) suffered a broken hand in that win.  They were already without Devin Booker (24.7 PPG), so they will be without their two best players tonight.  They are short-handed as well.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* Celtics/Lakers NBC No-Brainer on OVER 228.5

The Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team when they have been healthy this season.  They are healthy coming out of the All-Star Break with the return of Luka Doncic to go along with Austin Reaves and LeBron James.

The Lakers improved to 18-8 OVER in home games this season with a 125-122 shootout win over the Clippers in their first game back from the Break.  That's a Clippers team that plays slow and is known more for defense than offense.

Now the Lakers must face the Celtics, who rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating with 120.2 points per 100 possession.  The Celtics are coming off a 121-110 win over the Warriors, who have no offense without Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler yet they still got to 231 combined points.  This total of 228.5 is very short for a game involving the Celtics and Lakers with how healthy they both are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Tulsa OVER 158

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-8 OVER in all games this season including 8-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 137th in adjusted tempo, 102nd in average length of offensive possession, 35th in adjusted offense and 165th in adjusted defense.

UTSA is 9-3 OVER in road games this season.  The Roadrunners also like to play fast ranking 123rd in adjusted tempo and 120th in average length of offensive possession.  They are abysmal defensively, ranking 324th in adjusted defense.  They are allowing 89.9 points per game on the road this season.  Tulsa is scoring 90.4 points per game at home.  Bet the OVER In this game Sunday.

15* Cavs/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without three of their top four scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.8 PPG, 6.4 APG), Jalen Williams (17.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) and Ajay Mitchell (14.1 PPG, 3.7 APG).  They were able to get by the Nets without these guys in their first game back from the break.

But the Cleveland Cavaliers are a different animal.  The Cavaliers are 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their recent surge has been due to two things.  The addition of James Harden (24.7 PPG, 8.2 APG) has opened up their offense, and the return to health of many of their key guys Evan Mobley and sharp shooter Sam Merrill has helped as well.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Thunder today.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* Ohio State/Michigan State CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 146.5

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 259th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  The Spartans and their opponents have combined for 146 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 10 of their last 13 games overall.

Ohio State is in no hurry either ranking 219th in adjusted tempo.  The Buckeyes are hurting offensively without second-leading scorer Juni Mobley Jr. (15.1 PPG).  Devin Royal (14.0 PPG) is questionable as well.  The Buckeyes are really thin at the guard position without Mobley Jr.

Ohio State is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall.  This despite two uncharacteristically great shooting performances in a row hitting 52.4% from 3-point range against Wisconsin and 42.9% from 3-point range against Virginia.  That won't happen against Michigan State today.  

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 131, 117 and 126 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on CS-Northridge/Long Beach State OVER 157.5

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team going 16-9 OVER in all games this season including 9-3 OVER in road games.  The Matadors rank 3rd in the country in adjusted tempo.  They play fast and don't let anyone else dictate their tempo.

Long Beach State has been a dead nuts OVER team at home going 10-2 OVER in all home games.  The Beach also like to play faster ranking 143rd in adjusted tempo.

This will be a rematch from a 87-80 road win by Long Beach State over CS-Northridge for 167 combined points.  Neither team shot lights out, either.  Northridge was particularly bad shooting 40.9% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range.  Long Beach shot 46.6% from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rockets/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on New York -3

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They will be motivated to bounce back from a 126-111 home loss to the Pistons, who just have their number winning all three meetings this season.  The Knicks shot just 8-of-35 (22.9%) from 3-point range in that loss and were rusty coming out of the All-Star Break.

I love the spot for the Knicks because they have been dominant following a loss.  In fact, the Knicks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss with three blowout wins over the Nets by 54, the Celtics by 22 on the road and the 76ers by 49 on the road.

The Rockets have been very overvalued this season especially since losing Steven Adams to injury.  Houston is just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  They won by 4 at Charlotte coming out of the break against a Hornets team missing three key players.  They won't be playing with the same kind of urgency the Knicks will be tonight.  New York should dominate the boards without Adams which will be a key to them winning and covering.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7.5

UCLA is fully healthy coming into this game which hasn't been the case for much of the season.  The Bruins have one of the biggest home/road splits in the Big Ten, too.  They are 14-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point to Indiana in OT.  Getting 7.5 points with the Bruins is a nice value here.

Illinois is getting too much love for its blowout win at USC on Wednesday against a very short-handed Trojans team.  The Bruins will offer much more resistance today.  They will slow this thing down to a crawl and points will be at a premium.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Fresno State OVER 155

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Lobos rank 53rd in adjusted tempo and 43rd in average length of offensive possession.  They are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 150 or more combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  This total of 155 is pretty short for a game involving the Lobos.

Fresno State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall with 169 combined points with Utah State, 156 with Air Force and 174 with Wyoming.  The Bulldogs also combined for 194 points with UNLV recently.

This is a rematch from a 83-74 win by New Mexico at home in their first meeting this season for 155 combined points.  Neither team shot that well with Fresno State connecting on just 38.9% from the field and New Mexico 42.7% from the field and 28.6% from 3-point range.  Both teams are likely to shoot better in the rematch, which should lead to an easy OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Michigan/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke ML +125

Michigan is getting a lot of love for its 11-game winning streak coming into this one.  The Wolverines have also covered five of their last six.  They are coming off a 91-80 road win at Purdue that pretty much locked up the Big Ten title for them, and I have to think this is a bit of a letdown spot despite the fact that it is Duke.

I have now doubt Duke will be 'all in' for this game.  The Blue Devils will feel disrespected as underdogs to the Wolverines.  They are coming off a 101-64 home win over Syracuse on Monday and have had the last four days off to rest and prepare to beat Michigan.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duke on the Money Line Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -6

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 65-50 road loss at Southern Illinois on January 28th.  The Panthers shot just 4-of-17 (23.5%) from 3-point range in that game and were playing without an injured Tristan Smith (9.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG).

The Panthers have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games since and have gotten Smith back in the lineup for five of those six games.  They are playing their best basketball of the season with their only loss coming by 5 at Belmont, the top team in the MVC.  All five wins have come by 12 points or more, including a 29-point road win at Murray State, a 21-point road win at Indiana State, a 12-point home win over Bradley and a 24-point home win over Drake.

Northern Iowa is 11-3 at home this season while Southern Illinois is 5-8 in true road games.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings as home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Thomas/Denver OVER 167

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Pioneers rank 70th in adjusted offense and 35th in adjusted defense.

St. Thomas is the best offensive team in the Summit League ranking 5th in the entire country in effective FG percentage.  The Tommies are 6-1 OVER in their last six games overall going for 161 or more combined points in six of those seven games.

St. Thomas beat Denver 92-88 at home for 180 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Neither team shot great with Denver going 8-of-21 (38.1%) from 3 and St. Thomas going 13-of-33 (39.4%) from 3.  That is very repeatable in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova +3

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 24-3 record this season.  They have 10 wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 10-2 in such games.  They are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall and should not be favored at Villanova today.

The Wildcats want revenge from a 75-67 (OT) road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Huskies on the road, and I love their chances of pulling off the upset at home today.  They have won six consecutive games coming into this one and are one of the more underrated teams in the country.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Kentucky +8

Liberty is overvalued due to its 23-3 record that includes a 17-game winning streak currently.  But the Flames have been ridiculously lucky in close games going 13-1 in games decided by 9 points or less.  Only 3 of their last 16 wins have come by more than 11 points, so asking them to win this game by 8-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Western Kentucky only lost 76-69 in its first meeting with Liberty.  And the Flames shot an unsustainable 17-of-29 (58.6%) from 3-point range in that 7-point win.  That's not going to happen again.

While WKU has had the last two days off and will be playing just its 3rd game in 14 days, Liberty is coming off a 90-89 (OT) win over FIU at home on Thursday.  The Flames are a very tired team with just one day off in between games and playing their 4th game in 11 days.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston -4.5

The spot really favors the Houston Cougars today.  They are coming off a 70-67 road loss to Iowa State on Monday.  They led by double-digits in the 2H and it took a minor miracle for the Cyclones to come back and beat them.  They gave Iowa State their toughest home test of the season, a place that is very difficult to play.

Now the Cougars are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back, especially with the Big 12 regular season title on the line today.  And while they are fully healthy, the same cannot be said for Arizona.

The Wildcats have been exposed in their last three games going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS.  They lost to Kansas without Dylan Peterson, lost in OT at home to Texas Tech, and barely beat BYU by 7 at home despite the Cougars missing their 2nd-best player in Richie Saunders.

The Wildcats have injury problems of their own without second-leading scorer Koa Peat (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) for this one.  They also just played BYU on Wednesday, so they have just two days to get ready for Houston.  The Cougars are 13-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 25.4 points per game.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +14.5

It's no surprised Kansas State had one of its best efforts of the season last time out after the firing of Jerome Tang.  The Wildcats pulled the 90-74 upset of Baylor as 3.5-point home dogs on Tuesday.  Now they will be giving Texas Tech a run for its money today.

Kansas State has shown it can play its best basketball on the road in Big 12 play this season.  In fact the Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four Big 12 road games.  Four of their last five road losses came by 5 points or fewer, and the other was a 14-point loss at Houston as 22.5-point dogs.

Texas Tech cannot be a 14.5-point home favorite today without the services of its best player in Jayden Toppin (21.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG).  Toppin was lost to a season-ending ACL injury in an upset loss to Arizona State on Tuesday.  The Red Raiders' season is basically over now without him.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Xavier/Butler OVER 159.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-6 OVER in all games this season and 7-1 OVER In road games.  The Musketeers rank 37th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 91st in adjusted offense and 121st in adjusted defense.

Butler also likes to play fast ranking 129th in adjusted tempo and 83rd in average length of offensive possession.  They are much better on offense (67th) than defense (126th).  They also just got leading scorer Finley Bizjack (17.5 PPG) back from injury.

Xavier beat Butler 89-75 for 164 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Neither team shot very well either with Xavier shooting 47.3% overall and 32.1% from 3, while Butler shot 43.3% overall and 29.6% from 3.  So there's room for improvement in the shooting department for both teams in the rematch today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Coastal Carolina ML +105

Coastal Carolina has a massive rest advantage over Marshall today and should not be home underdogs as a result.  The Chanticleers will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days, while the Thundering Herd will be playing their 5th game in 11 days.

Marshall is coming off a pair of hard-fought narrow wins by 4 over South Alabama on Monday and by 1 at Appalachian State on Thursday.  They needed a double-digit 2H comeback to beat App State on Thursday, and now they have just one day to get ready for Coastal Carolina.

The Chanticleers already beat Marshall 85-83 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They won that game despite Marshall shooting lights out going 9-of-17 (52.9%) from 3-point range.  They are unlikely to shoot that well again on very tired legs in the rematch today.  Bet Coastal Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green/Miami Ohio OVER 153

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are 14-9 OVER against the closing line and 17-6 OVER if you bet at the right number just factoring the last three games that all went under the close by 0.5 points with 164, 164 and 163 combined points and closing totals of 164.5, 164.5 and 163.5.

The Redhawks rank 46th in adjusted tempo, 45th in average length of offensive possession, 60th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage offense and 147th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 92.3 points per game and have ridden their elite offense to a perfect 26-0 record.

Bowling Green also plays pretty fast ranking 139th in adjusted tempo.  They let teams get shots up quick ranking 30th in average length of defensive possession.  That plays right into Miami's hands.

We saw that play out in a 93-83 win by Miami Ohio in their first meeting this season for 176 combined points.  Bowling Green shot just 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and is due some positive shooting regression on the rematch.  With this total at 153, we have 23 points to spare in the rematch.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 153 points in 20 of its 26 games this season.  This total of 153 is very short for a game involving the Redhawks right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +18.5

This line has been adjusted too much for the Nets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  The Nets trailed the Cavaliers by 35 points entering the 4th quarter and were resting their starters.  The Cavs are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, so that blowout loss isn't a concern.  They should still be very fresh for this game against the OKC Thunder tonight especially coming out of the All-Star Break.

The biggest thing for me here is the Thunder have no business being 18.5-point favorites against anyone with the star players they are missing right now.  They are without three of their top four scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.8 PPG, 6.4 APG), Jalen Williams (17.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) and Ajay Mitchell (14.1 PPG, 3.7 APG).

The Thunder don't have enough firepower without these guys to warrant laying 18.5 points.  They are going to have to rely on defense to win this game, and with a total this low getting 18.5 points is a tremendous value.  Bet the Nets Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -6

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Charlotte Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The difference is the Cavaliers made easy work of the Nets and got to rest their starters, while the Hornets were in a dog fight with the Rockets and didn't have that same luxury.

The Cavaliers improved to 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall with a 112-84 home win over the Nets last night.  Their recent surge has been due to two things.  The addition of James Harden (24.8 PPG, 8.2 APG) has opened up their offense, and the return to health of many of their key guys like sharp shooter Sam Merrill has helped as well.

No starter played more than 28 minutes for the Cavaliers last night due to the nature of their blowout which saw them take a 35-point lead into the 4th quarter over the Nets.  The Hornets saw all five starters play at least 29 minutes in their 104-101 loss to the Rockets last night.

Making matters worse for the Hornets is they will be without two starters in Miles Bridges (18.2 PPG), 6.1 RPG) and Moussa Diabate (8.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG).  They will also be without two key role players in Coby White (18.6 PPG) and Grant Williams (7.3 PPG).  They are so short-handed right now, and the Cavs will have significant advantages when the Hornets have to go to their bench.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit ML -120

I've been fading Milwaukee religiously since losing leading scorer Seth Hubbard (16.6 PPG).  They are also playing without third-leading scorer Danilo Jovanovich (12.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  The Panthers have been a mess without these guys to say the least.

Indeed, Milwaukee is 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall with the three wins coming by a combined 8 points.  Five of the seven losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 76-63 home loss to Detroit during this stretch.  The Panthers are coming off a home win over rival Green Bay, setting them up for a letdown spot as well.

Detroit is playing its best basketball of the season right now going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes upset road wins over Milwaukee by 13 as 6.5-point dogs and Wright State by 3 as 11.5-point dogs.  They also upset Northern Kentucky by 13 as 5.5-point home dogs and Youngstown State by 6 as 3.5-point home dogs.  

So they have taken on the best the Horizon League has to offer and have beaten them all.  The Titans will complete the season sweep of the short-handed Panthers tonight as well.  Bet Detroit on the Money Line Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Green Bay/Oakland OVER 153.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-9 OVER in all games this season and 7-1 OVER in home games.  The Golden Grizzlies are scoring 82.7 points per game and allowing 82.1 points per game this season, including 92.4 points per game and 81.2 points per game at home.

Oakland ranks 40th in adjusted tempo, 79th in adjusted offense and 280th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Grizzlies are an elite offensive team but one of the worst defensive teams in the Horizon League.

Green Bay is 14-12 OVER in all games and 7-6 OVER in road games.  The Phoenix rank 118th in adjusted offense but just 317th in adjusted defense.  They rank 54th in effective FG percentage offense and 312th in effective FG percentage defense.  They are a good shooting team ranking 52nd in 3-point percentage (36.5%) and 337th defending the 3 (37.1%).

This will be a rematch from a 88-63 road win by Oakland over Green Bay and 151 combined points.  But Green Bay shot just 5-of-24 (20.8%) from 3-point range in that game and is due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics are 35-19 SU & 30-24 ATS this season.  They are 17-10 SU and 17-10 ATS in road games.  The Celtics are in 2nd place in the East trailing the Pistons by 5.5 games and only 0.5 games ahead of the Knicks.  They come out of the All-Star Break motivated to catch the Pistons and also to fend off the Knicks.

While the Celtics are fully healthy for this one, the Warriors will be without Steph Curry (27.2 PPG) and obviously Jimmy Butler (20.0 PPG).  This is one of the worst teams in the NBA in their current state, and asking them to be competitive against this juggernaut of a Celtics team is asking too much.

The Warriors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The lineup they are currently putting out there has no business catching only 5.5 points to the Celtics tonight.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Northridge/UCSB OVER 155.5

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team thanks to ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession.  The Matadors are 15-9 OVER in all games this season and 8-3 OVER in road games.  This total of 155.5 is very short for a game involving CS-Northridge tonight.

UCSB ranks 70th in adjusted offense and 258th in adjusted defense.  Better yet for the OVER, the Gauchos rank 28th in effective FG percentage offense and 312th in effective FG percentage defense.  So despite playing at a much slower pace, the Guachos are an OVER team due to being so efficient on offense and so terrible on defense.

UCSB is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 160 combined points with UC-Davis, 163 with UC-Irvine and 168 with Cal Poly.  I know the first meeting went well under the total in a 74-65 win by CS-Northridge and 139 combined points.  But UCSB shot 6-of-30 (20%) from 3-point range while Northridge shot 3-of-18 (16.7%) from 3-point range.  I fully expect some major positive shooting regression for both teams in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Spurs OVER 229

The Phoenix Suns will be without their best defender in Dillon Brooks tonight.  But they have Devin Booker back healthy and he found his stroke nearly winning the 3-point competition over All-Star Break.  Grayson Allen should be back as well.

The Suns will have plenty of firepower tonight to get in a shootout with the Spurs, who have been playing in a ton of them lately.  While the Suns are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, the Spurs are 5-0 OVER in their last five games with 239 or more combined points in four consecutive games coming into this one.  This total of 229 is very short for a game involving the Spurs right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Raptors/Bulls OVER 231.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 5th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall coming into this one.  This despite playing without Josh Giddey (18.8 PPG, 8.8 APG) and Tre Jones (12.4 PPG, 5.8 APG) during this stretch.  Both are expected back coming out of the All-Star Break to really make the Bulls even more of an OVER team.

The Raptors are fully healthy coming out of the All-Star Break and are a potent offensive team when that's the case with Ingram, Barnes, Barrett and Quickley leading the way.  They should hang a big number on the Bulls tonight.

This will be a rematch from a 123-107 win by the Raptors on February 5th going into the break.  That game saw just 42 combined points in the 4th quarter, which is unlikely to happen again.  Especially with the Bulls having more firepower in the rematch with Jones and Giddey.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 228 or more combined points in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* WAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Valley -7.5

I love the spot for Utah Valley tonight.  They are ineligible for the postseason, so their main goal is winning the WAC.  They trail Cal Baptist and Utah Tech both by 0.5 games heading into tonight.

This is the Wolverines' shot at revenge from a 78-71 (OT) road loss at Cal Baptist in their first meeting this season.  It's amazing they even forced OT after shooting 2-of-20 (10%) from 3-point range while the Lancers shot 6-of-14 (42.7%) from 3.  It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Utah Valley has a massive home-court advantage going 12-0 SU at home this season while outscoring opponents by 23.9 points per game.  The Wolverines also have a big rest advantage after having an entire week off coming into this game last playing last Thursday.

Cal Baptist just had its 9-game winning streak come to an end with a road loss at Utah Tech on Saturday.  Teams that have long winning streaks snapped tend to be flat in that next game.  Bet Utah Valley Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks -3.5

Both Detroit big men in Jalen Duren (17.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG) and Isaiah Stewart (10.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) have suspended this game tonight.  The Pistons are 'fat and happy' coming out of the All-Star Break with a 5.5-game lead on the Celtics and a 6-game lead on the Knicks for 1st place in the East.

The Knicks are fully healthy for this one with the exception of Miles McBride.  The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and are scoring 118.1 points per game including 120 per game at home.  They should hang a big number on a Pistons team missing two of their best defenders.

The Knicks are not only motivated to catch the Pistons in the East, they are also motivated due to playing with double-revenge after losing their first two meetings in Detroit this season.  Now the Knicks get them at home, and they have been a totally different team at Madison Square Garden.

Indeed, the Knicks are 21-7 SU & 19-9 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 9.9 points per game on average.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites over the Pistons tonight.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Cavs OVER 229.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with an elite offense.  They have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall while scoring 119 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.  A big reason for their success is trading for James Harden at PG, plus sharpshooter Sam Merrill back healthy.

The Brooklyn Nets are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall including 236 or more combined points in three of those five games.  They are pretty healthy coming out of the break with leading scorer Michael Porter Jr. back in the lineup.

Cleveland beat Brooklyn 131-124 for 255 combined points in their lone meeting this season.  This game should sail OVER this 229.5-point total in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Appalachian State -3

I love the spot for Appalachian State tonight.  The Mountaineers are tied with Troy for first place in the Sun Belt with the regular season title at stake here down the stretch.  They also want revenge on Marshall after losing 88-81 on the road in their first meeting this season.

Marshall shot an unsustainable 12-of-24 (50%) from 3-point range at home in that first meeting.  App State shot 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3 and 17-of-31 (54.8%) from the FT line in that game.  It's safe to say the Mountaineers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

App State is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Mountaineers are 10-3 SU at home this season.  Marshall is 5-7 SU & 5-7 ATS in true road games.  The Mountaineers have the rest advantage after having the last four days off, while the Thundering Herd have only had the last two days off and will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  Bet Appalachian State Thursday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International +11.5

Liberty is overvalued due to its 22-3 record that includes a 16-game winning streak currently.  But the Flames have been ridiculously lucky in close games going 12-1 in games decided by 9 points or less.  Only 3 of their last 15 wins have come by more than 11 points, so asking them to win this game by 12-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

That's especially the case with Florida International already proving they could play with Liberty at home.  In fact, they are the only team to force OT against Liberty during this 16-game winning streak.  They lost 97-94 (OT) at home, and they would love to get some revenge from that narrow defeat.  At the very least they will stay within this inflated number.  Bet Florida International Thursday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Boise State/Utah State OVER 152.5

Boise State has quietly gone a perfect 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 152 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  The Broncos are an elite shooting team but a poor defensive team this season.

Utah State ranks 134th in adjusted tempo, 86th in average length of offensive possession, 21st in adjusted offense and 12th in effective FG percentage.  We've seen the Aggies tack on points late to try and help their net rating in their last three games.

Indeed, Utah State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games combining for 168 points with Wyoming, 169 with Fresno State and 174 with Memphis.  This total of 152.5 is too short for a game involving Boise State and Utah State right now.

Utah State beat Boise State 93-68 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  The Aggies will hang another big number on the Broncos today, who should have much more success offensively in the rematch after hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.9% from 3 in that first meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas/Oklahoma State OVER 158.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cowboys rank 13th in adjusted tempo, 59th in adjusted offense and 106th in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is too low for a game involving Oklahoma State, which will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Kansas plays much faster and much more efficiently on offense with the best player in the country healthy.  Darryn Peterson (19.8 PPG, 41.3% 3-pointers) is healthy and looking to make a statement after a season-low in points in a loss to Iowa State last time out.  Oklahoma State will offer much less resistance, but the Cowboys can keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette +9.5

It has been a tough luck season for the Marquette Golden Eagles as they rank 356th in KenPom's luck ranking.  Close losses have been the culprit as the Golden Eagles have 10 losses by single-digits this season.  They are much better than their 9-17 record would indicate.

Marquette has especially been 'game' at home going 9-5 SU in all home games.  All five of those losses came by 9 points or fewer, so they haven't been beaten by double-digits at home all season.  They won't start today as I fully expect them to give St. John's a run for their money.  Bet Marquette Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charlotte/Tulsa OVER 150.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 16-8 OVER in all games this season including 7-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 145th in adjusted tempo, 107th in average length of offensive possession, 32nd in adjusted offense and 168th in adjusted defense.

Charlotte is 14-10 OVER in all games this season.  The 49ers are a solid offensive team ranking 112th in adjusted offense but a terrible defensive team ranking 296th in adjusted defense.

This is a rematch from a 86-74 road win by Tulsa on January 14th for 160 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and this total of 150.5 has been set too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/UTSA OVER 157

UTSA plays fast and plays no defense.  The Roadrunners rank 116th in adjusted tempo and 336th in adjusted defense.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 156 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  The only games that didn't reach that mark were against two slow, dead nuts UNDER teams in North Texas (twice) and Temple.

That's not Florida Atlantic, which also profiles as an OVER team.  The Owls play even faster ranking 51st in adjusted tempo, 129th in adjusted offense and 127th in adjusted defense.  After six consecutive losses overall, this is a chance for the Owls to let their hair down and hang a big number on this UTSA team to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

That already happened in the first meeting with FAU beating UTSA 110-70 at home for 180 combined points.  With have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch with this total set at 157.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy/ULM OVER 154

UL-Monroe is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Warhawks rank 35th in adjusted tempo and 358th in adjusted defense, so they play fast and play no defense.  They have gone for 164 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall, so this total of 154 is pretty low for a game involving the Warhawks right now.

Troy ranks 132nd in adjusted offense and just 174th in adjusted defense.  The Trojans are scoring 81.7 points per game this season and will hang a big number on the Warhawks.  I like that this is the first meeting between these teams so they are unfamiliar with one another.  Troy has gone under the total in six straight games which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Trojans get a chance to let their hair down today against the worst defensive team in the conference.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on SIU/Drake OVER 149

Drake has quietly gone 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games overall.  The Bulldogs and their opponents have combined for at least 149 points in 10 of those 13 games and 148 or more in 11 of them.  This total of 149 is pretty short for a game involving the Bulldogs right now.

Southern Illinois ranks 74th in adjusted tempo and 55th in average length of offensive possession, so the Salukis like to play fast.  That also will help us cash this OVER ticket in a rematch from a 76-73 (OT) win by Drake in their first meeting this season.

Drake shot just 23.5% from 3-point range in that first meeting while Southern Illinois shot 36% overall and 11.5% from 3-point range.  It's safe to say both teams are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch after combining to go 9-of-60 from 3-point range in that first meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Creighton +16

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 24-2 record this season.  They have 10 wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 10-1 in such games.  They are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall and should not be laying 16 points to Creighton today.

The Huskies won't be all that motivated to beat Creighton again.  The Bluejays shot 40.9% from the field and 23.8% from 3-point range in a 85-58 home loss to UConn in their first meeting this season.  The Huskies shot 54.1% from the field and 51.6% from 3-point range.  It's safe to say the Bluejays are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch.

Creighton goes from being a 6.5-point home dog to a 16-point road dog to UConn in the rematch.  That's an overreaction from that first meeting.  Bet Creighton Wednesday.

15* Texas Tech/Arizona State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +8

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders are coming off a 78-75 (OT) road win at Arizona as 9.5-point dogs on Saturday.  They will not come out with the same intensity tonight, and they are a tired team coming off that OT game and playing their 4th game in 10 days tonight.

Arizona State has had the last week off last playing on Tuesday in a 85-76 home win over Oklahoma State.  This massive rest advantage, coupled with the massive letdown spot for the Red Raiders isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Sun Devils are live underdogs tonight going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet Arizona State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +3.5

Miami Ohio is 25-0 this season as the only remaining unbeaten team in the country.  With that label comes a lot of pressure, and this looks like the spot where they will slip up on the road against a 'game' UMass team coached by the legendary Frank Martin.

UMass only lost 86-84 at Miami Ohio as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  The Minutemen already proved they could play with the Redhawks on the road, and I think they get their revenge at home in the rematch tonight.

UMass just took Akron to the wire on the road on Friday in a 99-92 loss as 12.5-point road dogs.  Akron is probably the best team in the MAC despite Miami having the better record. That 7-point loss to Akron was their 2nd-largest margin of defeat all season.  The Minutemen have been a hard-lucky team with 10 of their 11 losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  In fact, 5 of their last 6 losses have come by 3 points or less.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio/UMass OVER 161.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when Miami visits UMass.  This will be a rematch from a 86-84 home win by Miami and 170 combined points on January 27th.  Neither team shot the lights out in that game, so it should be another high-scoring game in the rematch tonight.

Miami is 14-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Redhawks rank 45th in adjusted tempo, 61st in adjusted offense and just 147th in adjusted defense.  They rank 3rd in effective FG percentage offensively and are scoring 92.6 points per game this season.

UMass plays even faster ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo.  The Minutemen are 92nd in effective FG percentage offensively and 244th in effective FG percentage defensively.  They are 16-9 OVER in all games this season scoring 81.0 points per game.

UMass has gone OVER in three consecutive games coming in with 184 combined points with Central Michigan, 185 with Coastal Carolina and 191 with Akron.  This total of 161.5 has been set too short for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on UCF ML -120

I love the spot for UCF tonight.  The Knights will be motivated to bounce back from three consecutive losses.  They lost at Houston and at Cincinnati while also falling at home to WVU.  They are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

TCU is in a massive letdown spot tonight off three consecutive victories by 7 points or fewer.  Two came against two of the worst teams int he Big 12 in K-State (by 2) and Oklahoma State (in OT).  The Horned Frogs are a tired team coming off that OT game at Oklahoma State.  They will also be playing their 4th game in 11 days.  Bet UCF on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Akron/Western Michigan OVER 158

This is a very low total for a game involving Akron.  The Zips are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 31st in adjusted tempo, 26th in average length of offensive possession, 48th in adjusted offense, 9th in effective FG percentage offense, 150th in adjusted defense and 170th in effective FG percentage defense.

Western Michigan ranks 180th in adjusted tempo, 183rd in adjusted offense and 331st in adjusted defense.  The Broncos are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

Both offenses are great shooting 3-pointers with Akron 9th in the country at 38% and WMU 105th at 35.2%.  Both teams are terrible at defending the 3-pointer with WMU ranking 292nd allowing 35.9% and Akron 230th at 34.9%.  Both teams are willing to give up looks from 3.

We saw that play out in their first meeting this season with Akron beating Western Michigan 104-89 for 193 combined points.  Akron shot 20-of-35 (57.1%) from 3 while WMU shot 12-of-26 (46.2%) from 3.  Obviously I don't expect both teams to shoot as well again, but this total is 35 points less than the 193 they combined for so we have a lot of margin for error.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Villanova/Xavier OVER 151.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Musketeers are 19-6 OVER in all games this season including 11-4 OVER in home games.  They rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession, 90th in adjusted offense and 116th in adjusted defense.  They are also just 260th in effective FG percentage defensively.

Xavier is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 152 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This is a very low total for a game involving Xavier.

Villanova is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games overall.  The Wildcats are an elite offensive team ranking 31st in adjusted offense.  They will hang a big number on this poor Xavier defense to lead the way to use cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Houston/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are 14-0 at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are outscoring opponents by 27.3 points per game at home this year.  If they want to win the regular season Big 12 title, this is a must-win for the Cyclones as they trail Houston by 2 games in the standings.

Iowa State just blasted Kansas 74-56 at home on Saturday and held arguably the best player in the country in Daryn Peterson to a season-low 10 points.  Now they get to stay at home which is a huge advantage for this quick turnaround to face Houston on Monday.

Houston doesn't have the same luxury.  The Cougars will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days and their 3rd game in 7 days with a lot of travel in between.  They failed to cover at Utah on Tuesday before failing to cover at home against Kansas State on Saturday.  They have benefited from a very soft Big 12 schedule here of late during their current 6-game winning streak.

This will be Houston's toughest road test of the season.  They also lost at Texas Tech in their previous toughest test.  Amazingly, Houston has not had to play at Hilton Coliseum since 2024, which saw Iowa State win 57-53 as 1.5-point dogs.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont/Murray State OVER 166.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Belmont travels to Murray State for a rematch from a 103-86 win by the Bruins at home.  That game saw 189 combined points, and this total of 166.5 has been set too low for the rematch.

Belmont is 15-11 OVER in all games this season, including 12-4 OVER in conference games.  The Bruins rank 99th in adjusted tempo, 31st in average length of offensive possession, 45th in adjusted offense and 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 83.7 points per game this season.

Murray State plays even faster.  The Racers rank 18th in adjusted tempo, 49th in average length of offensive possession, 61st in adjusted offense and 225th in adjusted defense.  The Racers are scoring 84.9 points per game and allowing 79.2 points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Campbell -2.5

I love the spot for the Campbell Camels today.  They will be out for revenge from a 87-83 road loss at Charleston as 3.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Charleston shot 55.6% from the field while Campbell shot 47% and still only won by 4.

Connor Hickman (11.6 PPG) scored 18 points for that Cougars in that first meeting.  Well, Hickman has been ruled ineligible for the rest of the season.  Campbell is a 2.5-point favorite in the rematch, so it's an adjustment of 6 points from that first meeting.  That's not enough for shifting home courts and for the loss of Hickman.

Charleston is 4-4 SU in true road games this season.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to UNC-Wilmington by 12 and Hofstra by 4.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and are a tired team right now without Hickman.

Campbell has the luxury of having the last seven days off last playing on February 7th.  It's safe to say they will be fresh and prepared for this rematch.  They come in playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Camels are 8-2 SU at home this season as well.  Bet Campbell Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland/Robert Morris OVER 155.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 32nd in adjusted tempo, 74th in adjusted offense and 273rd in adjusted defense.  They are 16-9 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 83.3 points per game and allowing 81.7 points per game and have yet to play an OT game.  This total of 155.5 is very short for a game involving Oakland.

Robert Morris is 158th in adjusted offense and 221st in adjusted defense.  The Colonials are scoring 77.5 points per game this season.  They are really playing well offensively, scoring at least 71 points in 18 of their last 19 games overall.  Both teams will likely get into the 80's today.

Oakland beat Robert Morris 96-73 for 169 combined points in their first meeting this season.  This despite both teams shooting awful from 3.  Robert Morris went 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 and Oakland went 3-of-16 (18.8%) from 3.  Both teams are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  That total was set at 161.5 and this one is 155.5, so there's value on the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas/Missouri OVER 150

Texas has been on an absolute tear offensively scoring 79 or more points in six straight games coming in.  This total of 150 is too short for a game involving the Longhorns right now.  They rank 10th in adjusted offense and 103rd in adjusted defense this season.

Missouri and its opponents have combined for at least 154 points in four of its last five games coming into this one.  The Tigers have scored 78 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +17

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 23-2 record this season.  They have nine wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 9-1 in such games.  They are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and should not be laying 17 points to Georgetown today.

Georgetown has been a tough luck loser all season with seven losses by single-digits.  But the Hoyas are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to Villanova by 7.

Now the Hoyas want revenge from a 64-62 home loss as 11.5-point dogs to UConn in their first meeting this season on January 17th just a month ago.  They already proved they could play with the Huskies at home, and getting 17 points in the rematch after nearly pulling off the upset in the first meeting is too much. 

The Hoyas have a big rest advantage here as they last played on Saturday getting a full week off in between games.  UConn just beat Butler by 10 as 11.5-point favorites on Wednesday, getting just two days off in between games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCSB/Cal Poly OVER 159.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team and should not have a total in the 150's tonight.  The Mustangs rank 4th in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 264th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 81.0 points per game and allowing 85.5 points per game this season.

UCSB is an elite offensive team ranking 72nd in adjusted offense while scoring 79.2 points per game this season.  The Guachos are terrible defensively, ranking 238th in adjusted defense.  They rank 31st in effective FG percentage offense and 301st in effective FG percentage defense.

This will be a rematch from a 107-67 win by UCSB over Cal Poly in their first meeting this season that saw 174 combined points.  UCSB probably won't shoot 51.7% from 3 again like they did in scoring 107 points, but Cal Poly is due some positive shooting regression after shooting 26.9% from 3 in that first meeting.  The end result should even out and this game should sail OVER 159.5 combined points once again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arizona ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +9.5

Arizona finally suffered its first loss of the season to Kansas.  I always like fading teams in the next game after having their unbeaten record get blemished.  There tends to be a hangover, and they just don't show up with the kind of intensity they were before trying to keep that perfect record intact.

Even if it wasn't a terrible spot for the Wildcats, they have no business being 9.5-point favorites over Texas Tech.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Red Raiders have just one loss all season by double-digits.

Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the Big 12 at 18-6 this season.  The Red Raiders rank 16th in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense with really no weaknesses.  They made easy work of Colorado 78-44 last time out and will be fresh and ready to go trying to take down the No. 1 team in the country tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.