15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -5

Buffalo should be improved in Year 3 under George Halcovage III.  The Bulls return two starters including their best player in Ryan Sabol (14.4 PPG, 79 3-pointers LY).  They add in SG Angelo Brizzi who followed Halcovage III from Villanova.  They also added Wisconsin transfer Daniel Frietag and a pair of scorers from the DII level in Ezra McKenna, Michael Pocknett and Derrick Tarlton Jr.

Buffalo opened with a 85-79 win as 2.5-point home favorites over Southern Miss.  Sabol went off for 32 points to lead the way.  Brizzi had 18 points and fellow returning starter Noah Batchelor had 12 points and 11 rebounds.  Freitag, McKenna and Talton Jr. all contributed in the win.

But this is more of a play against Green Bay than anything.  The Phoenix went 4-28 last season including 2-18 in the Horizon League.  Doug Gottlieb is one of the worst head coaches in the country and isn't going to get things turned around this season.  He returns just one double-digit scorer and lose two including Anthony Roy (25.7 PPG).

Only one player scored in double figures in a 94-51 loss as 30.5-point dogs at Kansas in the opener.  It may go a little easier against Buffalo tonight, but it won't be easy enough to stay within this 5-point spread.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

15* Clippers/Suns NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix ML -122

The injury situation really favors the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They get Jalen Green into the lineup for the first time this season as he comes over from the Rockets in the Kevin Durant trade.  They are fully healthy with the exception of Dillon Brooks now.

The Clippers will be without their two best players in James Harden (23.3 PPG, 8.6 APG) and Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG).  The Clippers have been overvalued all season and continue to be overvalued here as a short road underdog without these two.  They are 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS this season and it won't get better until these two return.  Bet the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Raiders/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -8.5

Note: I really like a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -2.5/Eagles +8.5.  The Lions -2.5 or better is another good option to pair with the Broncos.

Teams on short rest off an OT game are 26-47 SU & 23-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot are 9-27 SU & 10-25-1 ATS.  Worse yet, those same overtime teams when playing on Thursday night football are 6-21 SU & 4-23 ATS over the last 20 years.

That's what the Las Vegas Raiders are up against tonight.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 30-29 OT loss to the Jaguars last week in which their defense was on the field basically the entire 2H.  That game was their 'last stand', and they missed the potential game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  

The Raiders were sellers at the trade deadline sending their best receiver in Jakobi Myers to the Jaguars.  This is likely the worst WR room in the NFL now and it's no wonder Geno Smith has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  The Raiders rank 29th in scoring at 16.5 points per game and 30th in total offense at 283.2 yards per game.  It's not going to get any better without Myers moving forward.

Geno is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to boot.  That offensive line will not hold up tonight against the best pass rush in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL with 40 sacks and are also 1st in allowing the fewest sacks (9) in the league.  Denver ranks 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 279.9 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.

This tired Raiders defense will not be able to contain this Denver offense.  This Raiders D was on the field for 76 plays against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Raiders have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games with the only exception coming against the lowly Titans.  They have allowed 30 or more points in four of their last six games.  Denver should easily win this game by double-digits, just as it did in both meetings last season.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* UTSA/USF ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 67

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all six games.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 49 points per game, 574.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26 and North Texas 63-36 in recent weeks.

UTSA has gone 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 74 combined points with Rice, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Tulane.  So this total of 67 isn't really that high when you look at recent results for both teams.  UTSA has an elite offense and terrible defense.

The Roadrunners racked up 48 points on a very good Tulane defense last week finishing with 523 total yards in the proces.  QB Owen McCown was near perfect, completing 31-of-33 passes for 370 yards and 4 TD in the win.  He should light up this soft USF defense as well.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.2 points per game, 401.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season to rank 113th, 124th and 103rd in the country in those respective categories defensively.

These teams last met in 2023 and finished with 70 combined points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Georgia Southern/App State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

Georgia Southern is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 6-2 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 62 or more combined points in five of their last seven games overall.  The Eagles rank 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.

Appalachian State plays even faster.  The Mountaineers rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.2 seconds.  They have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games finishing with 60 or more combined points four times.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game, and this total of 61 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 127th allowing 35.4 points per game, 133rd allowing 469 yards per game and 127th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  The Mountaineers should be able to name their number here, and I fully expect the Eagles to be able to keep up in a shootout.

Georgia Southern QB JC French is very comfortable in Clay Helton's offense.  He is completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,677 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 202 yards and five scores.  He should light up a App State defense that allowed 45 points to Coastal Carolina recently.  There will be no wind and no rain in the forecast for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois State ML +105

Illinois State is coming off a 22-win season and looks like a contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  The Redbirds return three starters including their two leading scorers in Chase Walker (15.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Johnny Kinziger (14.6 PPG, 78 3-pointers).  They also return Landon Wolf (6.3 PPG), Ty Spence (7.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and Jack Daugherty (6.3 PPG, 59 3-pointers).  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country.

Ohio went 16-16 last year and figures to be worse off this year.  That's because they lost three of their top four scorers from last year in Clayton (14.0 PPG), Brown (13.2 PPG) and Mitchell (13.2 PPG).  That's a lot of production to replace, and the Bobcats are off to a rough start.

Ohio lost the opener 89-85 to Arkansas State as 3.5-point home favorites.  That's a Arkansas State team rebuilding with a first-year head coach.  The Red Wolves have five new starters this season, so the fact that they beat Ohio on the road is a bad sign for the Bobcats.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Long Island/IU Indy OVER 182

IU Indianapolis brought in West Liberty DII head coach Ben Howlett to try and turn around the program.  At the very least, the Jaguars will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the country.  He brings a brand of positionless basketball with him, running a player-driven motion offense and 40-minute pressure on defense.  The goal is to play as fast as possible and speed the opponent up.

West Liberty averaged over 100 points per game last season under Howlett.  He brought three West Liberty transfers with him.  The Jaguars are off to an eye-opening start, losing 118-102 to Ohio State for 220 combined points while sailing OVER the 171.5-point total by nearly 50 points.  Oddsmakers are going to struggle to set their totals high enough in the early going, including tonight.

Long Island also likes to play fast and is coming off a 89-67 loss at Notre Dame which went OVER the 136-point total by 20 points.  That's a ND team that likes to play slow, too.  Long Island has some nice chemistry with three starters and four key reserves back from a team that went 17-16 last year, including their top two scorers in Malachi Davis (17.7 PPG) and Jamal Fuller (12.5 PPG).  They added two-time JUCO All-American Greg Gordon who is an elite scorer.  They will all relish this opportunity to pad the stat sheet against IUPUI.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Blazers OVER 228.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and have gone 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season while finishing with 230 or more combined points in five of their seven games.  This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Blazers right now.

The Thunder have overcome a lot of injuries for a 8-0 start this season.  They are much healthier now with key offensive weapons Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe back healthy.  They should start playing much faster with all these guys back.

The Thunder are 5-3 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in three straight coming in.  They rank 4th in offensive rating and will make their way to 1st in that department as the season goes on as long as they stay healthy.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +9.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  They crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites and upset the Clippers 120-119 as 7.5-point road dogs.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

The Denver Nuggets have been very disappointing in their last two games.  After getting upset as 5.5-point road favorites by the Blazers in the NBA Cup, they came back off two days' rest and only beat the Kings by 6 as 11.5-point home favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Nuggets OVER 240.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They have since gone for 261 combined points with the Hornets, 250 with the Lakers and 239 with the Clippers in their last three games to improve to 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season.  These games are sailing OVER the total.

Denver also looks like a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and poor defense.  The Nuggets are 4-2 OVER in their six games this season going for 241 or more combined points in all four overs.  The Nuggets rank 2nd in offensive rating this season averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat and Nuggets went OVER the total in both meetings last season combining for 257 and 246 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in six of their seven games, and 231 or more in five of them.  The Knicks are 3-1 OVER in their last four games finishing with 232 or more combined points in three of the four.  This total of 227.5 is very low for a game involving the Knicks and Timberwolves right now.

That's especially the case with Anthony Edwards expected back after missing basically the last five games for the Timberwolves.  It looks as though both teams are fully healthy right now, and both are two of the better offensive teams in the league when that's the case.  Minnesota is 9th in offensive rating while New York is 13th.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Nets tonight after a 0-7 start to the season.  The Nets have one of their best chances to get their first win of the season tonight against the injury-ravaged Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers are 1-6 this season.  They opened the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard, Toppin, Jackson and Furphy to injury.  They are basically a G League team right now and have no business being a 6.5-point favorite here.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -11

The Golden State Warriors are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight following two straight upset road losses to the Pacers and Bucks. Now they are back home where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season. The Warriors also have the rest advantage after having the last two days off.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Suns following three straight covers at home. Now the Suns are back on the road where they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS this season, losing to Utah, Denver by 22 and the Clippers by 27.

The Suns remain without Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Ryan Dunn and I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive without those three. The Warriors are nearly fully healthy with the exception of Al Horford, who isn't much of a loss at this point in his career. Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -22

The Iowa Hawkeyes finally have the coach they need to get over the hump. They hired Drake's Ben McCollum who went 31-4 at Drake last year and is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.

McCollum brought several players with him from Drake including his best player in Bennett Stirtz. He is a great recruiter, but he is even better at developing his talent. The Hawkeyes are in good hands with McCollum, and it will show in their opener tonight with a blowout win over Robert Morris.

The Colonials lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers and a 5th that averaged 9.1 points. This is a clear rebuilding year as they only bring back one player that averaged more than 1.0 points per game. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4.5

I love the spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight. They are coming off consecutive blowout wins over Memphis by 13 at home and Cleveland by 11 on the road. They had yesterday off, and now they want revenge on the Bucks after losing by 6 to them on October 24th in their first meeting.

The Bucks are coming off a buzzer-beater 117-115 win over the injury-depleted Indiana Pacers last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they haven't had consecutive days off yet this season, so they are a tired team. This is a clear letdown spot for the Bucks after that thrilling win last night, plus having already beaten the Raptors by 6 in their first meeting. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio)/Ohio OVER 49

Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense, the best QB in the MAC and a very leaky defense. This should be a high-scoring game against a Miami Ohio team that looks to have its best offense in years, but also one that has taken a big step back defensively this season.

Ohio has gone 3-2 OVER in its last five games finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games. That includes a 48-21 win over NIU for 69 combined points, and that's a NIU team with one of the worst offenses in the country but a solid defense. They also went for 49 with EMU, 55 with Bowling Green and 77 with Gardner Webb.

This total of 49 is very low for a game involving Ohio. The Bobcats rank 34th in total offense at 434.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play. They rank 120th allowing 6.3 yards per play. Parker Navarro is the best QB in the MAC, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,786 yads with 11 TD while also rushing for 504 yards and 4 TD as a tremendous dual-threat.

Transfer Dequan Finn has been a huge get at the QB position for Miami Ohio. He has thrown for 1,257 yards and 7 TD, while also rushing for 384 yards and 4 TD this season.

Miami Ohio is 5-2 OVER in seven games this season, and that's largely due to their totals being so low based on previous seasons. But the Redhawks went for 74 combined points with Eastern Michigan, 79 with UNLV and 62 with Rutgers. They can keep up in a shootout when they need to, and I think they will need to tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -3

This is a great spot for the Portland Trail Blazers and a terrible one for the Los Angeles Lakers. The spot justifies the Blazers being the favorite here as they should easily get the win and cover because of it.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and have won three in a row coming in as one of the more underrated teams in the NBA. That includes a 122-108 road win over the Lakers are identical 3-point favorites. Now they are at home and 3-point favorites in the rematch as well.

The Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 130-120 home win over the Miami Heat last night. Doncic and Reaves both played 38 minutes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both sit in this game. The Lakers will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight. Bet the Blazers Monday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 8-0 to the OVER this season instead of 6-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their six OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers, 66 combined points with the Commanders and 68 combined points with the Broncos to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 384.1 yards per game and 7th at 6.1 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and all five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game, 31st in total defense allowing 404.6 yards per game and 32nd allowing 6.4 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, S Clark, LB Sanborn and S WIlson.  Fellow S Thomas and CB Revel are questionable.  What a mess this defense is.

The Cowboys allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears, 40 to the Packers, and 44 to Bo Nix and the Broncos to name a few.  Dallas' three home games in perfect conditions in the dome this season went for 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 with the Packers and 66 to the Commanders.  The OVER is now 10-3 in Cowboys last 13 home games.

Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall.  Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray and kept the Cardinals competitive, losing 31-27 at Indianapolis for 58 combined points and 27-23 at home to Green Bay for 50 combined points.  Brissett led the Cardinals to 400 total yards against the Colts and 330 total yards against the Packers.  He is likely to get the start again this week after practicing with the first-team on Friday, and I like the OVER either way.

The Cardinals also have a pitiful defense.  They were diced up for 31 points by the Colts and 27 by the Packers the last two weeks.  Injuries are a big reason the Cardinals have regressed defensively.  CB Will Johnson, CB Garrett Williams, LB BJ Julari, DL Walter Nolen were all limited in practice on Friday and are highly questionable.  The Cowboys will dice them up, and the books just can't set these Dallas totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dumpster fire right now. They suspended JA Morant for one game, and though he could return tonight the chemistry in the locker room is not good.

The spot is also not good for the Grizzlies. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-104 loss in Toronto last night. They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days here. They are already lacking depth without Edey, Clarke, Pippen Jr. and Jerome due to injuries.

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing very well. They upset the Rockets as 6.5-point road dogs, while also beating the Celtics by 6, Magic by 19 and Mavericks by 12 at home. Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks -6

The Indiana Pacers are decimated with injuries right now. They opened the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard and Toppin to injury. They cannot be competitive with a team like the Bucks without these guys.

The Bucks are fully healthy with the exception of Kevin Porter Jr., who was lost in the opener. The Bucks have played well without him and have a healthy Giannis now and should make easy work of the short-handed Pacers. I like that the Bucks are coming off an upset loss to the Kings to refocus them after an upset win over the Warriors in their previous game.

Milwaukee is also playing with playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Pacers last season. Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* CBB Season Opener on St. John's -26

St. John's is the type of team I don't mind laying big numbers with early in the season. They pressure the opponent for 40 minutes and thus continue to pour it on late in games even when it's a blowout.

That's what Rick Pitino has brought to St. John's is a culture where you out work your opponent for 40 minutes and let the chips fall where they may. And he has turned the Red Storm into a Top 10 preseason team with his results thus far.

Second-leading scorer Zuby Ejiofor (14.7 PPG, 8,1 RPG) is back from last year, and the shooting should be much better with the additions of Joson Sanon (ASU), Ian Jackson (UNC) and Bryce Hopkins (Providence) through the transfer portal.

Quinnipiac lost three starters from last year including a pair of double-digit scorers. I don't see them being able to hang for 40 minutes with the Red Storm as this will likely be their toughest game of the season. Bet St. John's Monday.

20* Heat/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 3-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season with their two losses coming by 4 and 6 points to the Magic and Spurs, respectively.  They crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, and crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

The Lakers are 4-1 in their last five games overall but have done it against a very soft schedule. They are coming off consecutive narrow road wins over the Timberwolves by 1 and Grizzlies by 5 in the NBA Cup. They are primed for a letdown spot here after that NBA Cup win.

The Heat are the much fresher team after having the last two days off, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Lakers OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They also came through with a 144-117 home win over the Hornets last time out for 261 combined points. These games are sailing OVER the total.

The Lakers really profile as an OVER team with an elite offense led by Doncic and Reaves, but a terrible defense. The Lakers are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

There's always one or two teams that it takes over half a season for bettors and books alike to catch up to just how improved they are year over year.  The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams this season.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.

The Seahawks are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. Their two losses came by 4 points to the 49ers back in Week 1 when the 49ers were healthy, and by 3 points to the Bucs back when the Bucs were a lot healthier, too.  Now it's the Seahawks who are as healthy as they have been all season coming off their bye week and ready to crush the Commanders.

The Seahawks rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.6 points per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Sam Darnold is proving his season in Minnesota last year was no fluke, and he is thriving in Kubiak's offense which really utilizes play-action as well as anyone.  The defense ranks 7th in scoring at 19.4 points per game and 2nd at 4.9 yards per play.  So the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Seahawks have one of the most complete defenses in the NFL when healthy.  The front seven has been the strength, consistently getting pressure without blitzing.  That has helped them deal with some injuries in the secondary.  But the Seahawks are much healthier there now as their best CB in Devon Witherspoon returns after the bye.  The only starter they are still missing is FS Julian Love, but Nick Emmanwori is emerging as a star in his place.

Regression has hit the Commanders hard this season after winning so many close games last season.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS with four losses by 7 points or more.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Cowboys by 22 and the Chiefs by 21.  Their defense is old and slow and banged up right now.  They rank 27th in total defense at 372.8 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without two of their best pass rushers in DE's Armstrong and Wise Jr., and their secondary is one of the worst in the NFL as Marshon Lattimore is on his last leg.

The Commanders have a great offense when they are fully healthy.  But that's just not the case right now.  QB Jaden Daniels is returning from a hamstring injury, but I don't think he will test it much, and without being a dual-threat he is limited.  He also won't have his favorite receiver in Terry McClaurin, who reaggrevated his quad injury last week against the Chiefs.  Deebo Samuel has lost a couple steps, and Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler are both on IR.

The spot really favors the Seahawks as they are off a bye while the Commanders are on a short week after traveling to Kansas City Monday.  The Seahawks are the better, fresher, healthier team right now and it's not close.  Over the last two seasons, teams who on short rest after facing the Chiefs are 0-4 SU losing those games by an average of 16 points per game.  Seattle is 10-1 SU in road games under Mike McDonald over the last two seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +6.5

The Atlanta Hawks are proving they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They have managed to win their last two games without Trae Young. He got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 117-112 win at Brooklyn. The Hawks went on to beat the Pacers 128-108 on the road last time out without Young.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are banged up right now which explains their blowout losses at Boston by 20 and at home to Toronto by 11. But they continue to get a lot of respect from the books based on what they did last season. They just aren't that team right now.

The Cavaliers are without Garland and Strus right now, and Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen remain questionable. I would like the Hawks either way, but this line will crash if Mitchell is ruled out again. Bet the Hawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dumpster fire this season and now JA Morant is suspended. The Grizzlies are 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS in their six games this season. They lost by 13 to the Warriors and by 32 to the Heat.

The Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion and should make easy work of the Morant-less Grizzlies tonight. Memphis also remains without Jerome, Pippen Jr., Clarke and Edey to really take away their depth.

Toronto is coming off a 112-101 road win at Cleveland and has played a pretty tough schedule this season. They have played four road games and two home games, while the Grizzlies have played four home games and two road games. The Raptors will be motivated for their first home win of the season here. Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City ML -125

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 30.8 points per game and 415.8 total yards per game in their last five games.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  Rice had 9 receptions for 93 yards and a score against the Commanders in his 2nd game back.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Bills just don't have the playmakers the Chiefs do on offense and it shows.  They were held to 14 points by the Falcons and 20 points by the Patriots in two of their last three games.  No question the Chiefs have the better, more explosive offense, and the difference is even more glaring on defense.

The Chiefs rank 4th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy on defense right now.  The Bills rank 23rd allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are going to be much worse off defensively this week due to some key injuries.  They are without their two best defensive linemen in DT Ed Oliver and DT DaQuan Jones, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of their defense.  They are also without SS Raylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin.  CB Taron Johnson is questionable, and LB Shaq Thompson is out.

Getting the Chiefs are basically a PK in their current state up against the Bills in their current state is a gift here.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 45

This is a good time to 'buy low' on an OVER between these two teams.  The Jaguars went under the total in their two games going into the bye week while scoring 12 points against the Seahawks and 7 points against the Rams.  The Raiders went under the total in three straight games heading into their bye week scoring 6 points against the Colts, 20 against the Titans and 0 against the Chiefs getting shut out.

I expect both offenses to be much sharper coming out of the bye week with first-year head coaches and first-year coordinators.  The Jaguars have the talent on offense to be explosive, and they certainly have a great offensive head coach in Liam Coen to get the most out of them.  After all, the Jaguars put up 31 points on the Chiefs, 26 on the 49ers, 27 on the Bengals and 26 on the Panthers earlier this season so the potential is there.

Chip Kelly should have this Raiders offense looking as good as it has all season.  The Raiders have been without their two biggest weapons for Geno Smith for weeks now in WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Brock Bowers.  Well, both of those guys return this week, and that's going to make all the difference for Smith and company.  This offense played well earlier in the season when both were healthy.  Bowers means everything to this offense, and it should help open things up for Ashton Jeanty.

These are two mediocre to below averages defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders rank 23rd in scoring allowing 25.7 points per game.  The Jaguars rank 21st in total defense at 336.9 yards per game and 19th at 5.6 yards per play.  Jacksonville S Eric Murray has been placed on injured reserve, and LB Devin Lloyd who is their best defender is questionable with a calf injury.

It will be perfect conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium for scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Bengals OVER 50.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in what should be a shootout with the offenses having the advantage.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain Sunday in Cincinnati.

The Bengals have played in two straight shootouts since trading for Joe Flacco.  They went for 64 combined points with the Steelers and 77 combined points with the Jets.  Those are two of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the Bengals allowed 31 points and 396 yards to the Steelers and 39 points and 502 yards to the Jets, who were without their two best receivers in Wilson and Reynolds to boot.

The Bengals legitimately have the worst defense in the NFL, especially now that they are down their best defender in DE Trey Hendrickson.  The Bengals rank dead last in scoring defense at 31.6 points per game and dead last in total defense at 407.9 yards per game.  They also rank 30th allowing 6.4 yards per play.

But the offense has more juice now with Flacco, who is a big upgrade over Jake Browning.  He led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 total yards against the Steelers in his first start and followed it up with 38 points and 398 total yards against the Jets last week.  I know Flacco left late in that game with a shoulder injury and came back in.  But Flacco says he feels good to go this week even though he is listed as questionable.

The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in six of their seven games this season.  The only exception was the Saints in a game played in sloppy weather in Chicago.  The Bears have a vastly improved offense under Ben Johnson, scoring 25 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they have a terrible defense, one that ranks 31st in the NFL allowing 6.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the three worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards per play allowed.

Injuries are also a problem for this Chicago defense as they are without CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Johnson and DE Dominque Robinson.  Flacco should torch a Chicago defense that allowed 30 points and 6.0 yards per play to backup QB Tyler Huntley and the Ravens last week.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Chargers -9.5

Some teams bettors and the books just can't adjust down enough for how terrible they are.  That has been the Tennessee Titans for two years running.  After going 3-14 ATS last season, the Titans are now 2-6 ATS this season and were fortunate to get the two covers they had.  They covered by a half-point against the closing line in an 8-point loss to the Broncos as 8.5-point dogs in the opener.  They were about to be down 28-6 to the Cardinals in the 4th quarter before the Cardinals fumbled celebrating a TD too early going into the end zone.

So the Titans are now 5-20 ATS in their 25 games over the last two seasons.  They are getting worse before they get better, largely due to injuries.  They lost by 10 to the Raiders on the road, by 18 to the Patriots at home and by 24 to the Colts in the road in their last three games coming in.  Cam Ward has no help on offense, and he's without his best weapon in WR Calvin Ridley.

The injuries are even worse defensively.  They are without their most important defender in DT Jeffery Simmons.  They are without their best LB in Arden Key.  And they are without two of their best players in the secondary in CB L'Jarious Sneed and FS Xavier Woods.  It's no wonder they allowed 31 points to the Patriots and 38 to the Colts in their last two games.

The Chargers come in on extra rest after blowing the doors off the Vikings 37-10 at home last Thursday.  They outgained the Vikings 419 to 164, or by 255 total yards.  Justin Herbert is playing at a MVP level, especially now that he finally has a healthy offensive line with Joe Alt, Trey Pipkins III, Bobby Hart and Mekhi Becton all back healthy.  He has unbelievable weapons especially with the emergence of TE Oronde Gadsden II and RB Kimani Vidal in recent weeks.

The Chargers rank 12th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game and 5th in total defense at 296.9 yards per game.  They are getting better after shutting down the Vikings and are much healthier now.  Derwin James, Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman are all healthy and back from injury.  The only key defender they are missing is CB Tarheeb Still.

Jim Harbaugh handles these situations well as a NFL head coach.  Harbaugh is 25-8 SU & 24-8-1 ATS when playing in EST or CST time zones as a head coach, including 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in Eastern time zones.  When coming off extended rest in these spots, his teams are 5-0 SU winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Titans are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Chargers will crush the Titans in this one.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* Vikings/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 47.5

The Lions are an offensive juggernaut in a dome, especially at home.  The Lions are putting up 36.7 points per game, 389 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play at home.  When Detroit plays a home game and the total is below 50, the OVER is 18-8 under Dan Campbell.  The OVER is 40-21 in all Lions home games with a total less than 50 since 2015.

While Detroit is fully healthy on offense, the defense is another story.  The Lions remain without FS Kerby Joseph, and they have eight defenders on IR with another two out this week.  Their secondary is very beat up, and Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings are equipped to take advantage of it with one of the best sets up weapons in the NFL.

JJ McCarthy is set up for success as he returns from a bye week healthy and ready to go.  He has all of his top playmakers healthy in RB's Mason and Jones, WR's Jefferson Addison and Nailor and TE Hockenson.  The offensive line has some guys questionable, but McCarthy is mobile which will be a big upgrade from Carson Wentz, who just can't get away from pressure.

This Minnesota defense has been torched the last two weeks and is overrated.  The Vikings allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers.  Goff has owned Brian Flores and this blitz-happy Minnesota defense in his career, and that won't change this week.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 50 or more combined points in eight of those 10 meetings.  The Lions alone have scored at least 30 points in each of the last five meetings.  They will get 30-plus in this one as well to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 47.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Texans AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39.5

This is a very low total for a NFL game that will be played indoors in the dome in Houston in perfect scoring conditions.  I realize these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, but I don't think these two offenses are getting enough credit here.

The Broncos rank 10th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and 9th in total offense at 356.9 yards per game.  They have a better than average offense, especially with a creative mind like Sean Payton calling the shots.  He will find ways to scheme things up against the league's top-ranked defense to make Bo Nix and company successful.

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the OVER.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it is allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +13.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers and 'sell high' on the Packers this week.  The Packers are coming off an emotional comeback win over Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, winning 35-25.  The Panthers are coming off a 40-9 blowout loss to the Bills, who were off their bye week and pissed off after two straight losses going into their bye.

The Panthers also didn't have Bryce Young last week, and backup QB Andy Dalton played with a broken thumb.  Well, Young is back this week, and he makes all the difference for this team.  The Panthers were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with Young at the helm.

Several key players at least got in limited practices this week which gives them a good chance at returning from injury after the Panthers were decimated last week.  That includes S Nick Scott, LB Trevin Wallace, G Chandler Zavala, G Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  The defense is very healthy, and the offense has all of its top playmakers available for Young.

The Packers just aren't getting margin on anyone.  They haven't won any of their last six games by more than 10 points.  They have a way of playing conservative when they get ahead, and aggressive when they are behind.  That makes it tough for them to get margin on anyone.  They only beat the Cardinals by 4, the Bengals by 9, tied the Cowboys, lost outright to the Browns and beat the Commanders by 9.

The Packers have some concerning injuries on defense with Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.  K Brandon McManus is still bothered by a quad injury and is questionable.  It's a sandwich spot for the Packers off the big road win over Rodgers and the Steelers, and with the defending champion Eagles on deck on Monday Night Football.  I just don't think they'll be fully focused this week to put away the Panthers by two-plus touchdowns.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Packers OVER 43.5

The Packers are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 45 or more combined points in all four plus 80, 50 and 60 combined points.  The Panthers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games.

The Panthers get Bryce Young back this week and all of his weapons are healthy.  The offensive line is a little healthier as well.  The Panthers should do their park against a Packers defense that has Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.

The Packers have one of the best offenses in the NFL and should also do their park against a Carolina defense that just allowed 40 points to the Bills last week and has allowed at least 24 points in six of its eight games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -122

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on Houston this week.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.

The Broncos are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their four road games this season.  They needed a 14-point comeback to beat the Eagles and only beat the Jets by 2 in London.  They also lost outright to both the Colts and Chargers.  I think this is a tough spot for the Broncos, who are a tired team that hasn't had their bye week yet while the Texans have.  They are coming off two shootout home wins over the Cowboys and Giants following that trip to London.  I question how much they have left in the tank for the Texans, who need this win like blood while the Broncos can afford a loss as they are in 1st place in the AFC West alone.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Falcons/Patriots OVER 44.5

The Falcons lost 34-10 to the Dolphins last week.  But their lack of offense was due to being without QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Drake London and WR Darnell Mooney.  Well, all three are back this week, and the Falcons are primed for a big offensive output against a suspect New England defense.

The Patriots have one of the most improved offenses in the NFL and should name their number against this banged up Falcons defense.  Drake Maye is having a MVP-caliber season, leading the Patriots to 8th in scoring offense at 26.6 points per game and 3rd at 6.2 yards per play.  He is doing it without much of a running game as this is a pass-happy, explosive offense.  Maye is completing 75.2% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per attempt.

The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 43 points in five consecutive games despite playing dead offenses in the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers during this stretch.  The Falcons will be one of the best offenses they have faced this season and I expect their defense to get exposed.  But this Atlanta defense was exposed for 34 points by the lowly Miami Dolphins last week.  Injuries are a big problem with DE Zach Harrison and CB Billy Bowman out, while LB Leonard Floyd, LB Jalon Walker and SS Jessie Bates are all questionable.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawaii/San Jose State OVER 57

San Jose State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Spartans are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 59 or more combined points in four of the five.  The only game that went under finished with 55 combined points with Utah State, but that game had 995 total yards combined and easily should have went over the total.

San Jose State ranks 42nd in tempo and 1st in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 64.8% of the time.  That means more clock stoppages and more opportunities for points.  The Spartans average 315 passing yards per game.  They have a terrible defense that allows 6.3 yards per play and 298 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt.

Hawaii ranks 44th in tempo and 3rd in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 62.5% of the time.  So these are two of the top three teams in the country in pass play percentage, so there will be max clock stoppages.  After getting banged up early in the season, Hawaii star QB Micah Alejado is really hitting on all cylinders of late.

Hawaii beat Air Force 44-35 for 79 combined points and Alejado threw for 457 yards.  The Rainbow Warriors beat Utah State 44-26 for 70 combined points as Alejado threw for 413 yards.  And they beat Colorado State 31-19 behind 301 passing yards from Alejado.  He has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio over this three-game stretch, and now he's up against one of the worst secondary's he will face all season.  This game has shootout written all over it.  

The forecast also looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -5.5

This is a great spot for the Houston Rockets and a terrible one for the Boston Celtics.  The Rockets come in on two days' rest, while the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a thrilling NBA Cup win over the 76ers by a final of 109-108 on the road last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Celtics.

They will have nothing left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.  Brown, Pritchard and White are good players but they just can't carry this team in these spots.  They are starting Queta and Minott and have arguably the worst big men in the league.  Sengun, Adams and company will dominate them inside.

Houston has shown its potential after two tough losses to start the season by a combined 5 points, including a road loss to OKC by 1 in OT.  The Rockets have bounced back with a home win over the Nets by 28 and a road win over the Raptors by 18.  They will get margin on these tired Celtics tonight, too.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma/Tennessee OVER 55.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all eight games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama two weeks ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 55.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky in their six games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 45.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 510.1 yards per game and average 7.0 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,344 yards with a 18-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama and 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky in their last six games.  They are allowing 36.0 points per game and 445 yards per game in SEC play.

Oklahoma's defense got a lot of hype in the first half of the season, but its numbers were largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses possible.  The Sooners finally played an offense with a pulse last week and lost 34-26 at home to Ole Miss for 60 combined points.  They allowed 431 yards to the Rebels.  Tennessee has a better offense than Ole Miss.

John Mateer is now a month removed from the thumb injury that forced him out of action.  He says he's 100% healthy now, and he is in line for a big performance against this Tennessee defense.  He led the Sooners to 26 points against South Carolina and 26 against Ole Miss the last two games, and I expect him to have one of his best games of the season here as he'll need to to try and keep up with the Vols in a shootout.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Knoxville Saturday night with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +11

With one of the worst offenses in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers just have a knack for playing in close games.  They play up and down to their level of competition.  They have no business being favored by double-digits here against a Kentucky team that is on par with them.

The Tigers rank 99th in scoring offense at 24.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 340.6 yards per game and 111th at 5.1 yards per play.  Each of Auburn's five SEC games to this point were all decided by 10 points or fewer.  They are 1-4 SU in SEC play with their only win coming last week 33-24 at Arkansas only after the Razorbacks handed them the victory with four turnovers including three late and a 49-yard INT return TD to give them the lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the 4th.

Kentucky is coming off two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee last week despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

What really stands out is how much better this Kentucky offense is playing since its bye three weeks ago.  The Wildcats put up 395 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense and then 476 total yards on Tennessee.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has been impressive, completing 66.5% of his passes with 9 TD's on the season and is getting more comfortable each week.

No doubt Kentucky has the advantage at QB in this one.  And Auburn only averaging 170 passing yards per game, so stopping the run is the key to stopping Auburn.  The Tigers average 171 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Well, the strength of the Kentucky defense is stopping the run as they only allow 132.6 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The weakness of both defenses is their pass D, but only one of these QB's (Boley) is a good passer, and I'll gladly take Kentucky catching double-digits here.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10

Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Demon Deacons are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  They won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.  They then had another bye week before coming back to upset SMU 13-12 as 4.5-point home dogs last week despite committing five turnovers.  They outgained the Mustangs by 55 yards and put an end to their 20-game ACC winning streak.

So Wake Forest has had two bye weeks already and just had one two weeks ago.  I think it negates the fact that Florida State is coming off its bye week as I don't think the Seminoles will really be that much fresher than the Demon Deacons.  I also question how much Florida State cares to finish out this disastrous season.

The Seminoles are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in ACC play this season with nothing to play for but pride.  They were upset at Virginia as 7-point favorites, were upset at home by Pitt as 10.5-point favorites and were upset at Stanford as 18-point favorites.  QB Thomas Castellanos is coming off a concussion suffered late in that loss to Stanford, and he may not be his usual aggressive self, and his dual-threat ability will be limited.

Wake Forest has a huge advantage on defense in this one.  The Demon Deacons are only allowing 24.8 points per game, 331.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in conference play this season.  Florida State is allowing 32 points per game, 386.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play in conference play.  I'll gladly back the better defense with more to play for catching double-digits in this one.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -5.5

Georgia Tech is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Yellow Jackets have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

NC State will be no match Saturday.  The Wolfpack are 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with one of the worst defenses in the country.  They allowed 36 points and 485 total yards to Notre Dame and 53 points and 509 total yards to Pitt in their last two games coming in.  They won't have much success against Haynes King and this high-powered Georgia Tech offense this week, either.

NC State's offense is potent, but it is much less potent now after losing its biggest playmakers in WR Justin Jolly to injury in last week's blowout loss to Pitt.  Jolly has a team-high 36 receptions for 365 yards and five TD this season.  He was CJ Bailey's go-to guy out of the slot in key 3rd down situations.  Leading rusher Hollywood Smothers (825 yards, 6 TD, 28 receptions, 170 yards) is also questionable for this one.

With a bye on deck next week, Georgia Tech will be fully focused for this one.  I think the Yellow Jackets easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* USC/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on OVER 59

USC is a wagon offensively this season under Lincoln Riley as this is his best offense in his time in Los Angeles.  The Trojans rank 1st in total offense at 530 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 42.4 points per game.  They are also 1st averaging 7.8 yards per play.  They have my vote for best offense in the country.

Nebraska has an improved offense this season with a more pass-happy approach to take advantage of the talents of QB Dylan Raiola.  The Huskers are 38th in scoring at 31.6 points per game.  They will be able to keep up with USC in a shootout Saturday because they are going to be forced to as the Trojans can pretty much name their number.  Both teams are much stronger on offense than defense.

Nebraska is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 57 or more combined points in five of those eight games and 65 or more four times.  The only two exceptions were against two dead nuts under teams in Minnesota and Northwestern, who also have two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.  This USC offense is going to be by far the best that Nebraska has faced this season.

USC is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those nine games, including 66 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Golden State Warriors -10.5

This is a great spot for the Golden State Warriors and a terrible one for the Indiana Pacers.  The Warriors had yesterday off while the Pacers were playing in a NBA Cup game against the Atlanta Hawks, so they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Pacers can't handle back-to-backs right now with how short-handed they are.  They started the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard and Topping to injury.  It's no wonder they have opened the season 0-5, and it's not going to get any easier for them tonight.

The Warriors will be fully focused after letting down their guard in an upset loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last time out when the Bucks ruled out Giannis right before the game.  The Warriors thought they could just show up and win.  They won't have that mindset again tonight, and they will win with plenty of room to spare.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/Ole Miss OVER 54.5

Ole Miss really profiles as an OVER team.  The Rebels rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They also rank 19th in scoring at 37.0 points per game, 11th in total offense at 484.2 yards per game and 24th at 6.5 yards per play.  They'll be up against a South Carolina defense that has taken a big step down from last season with all the talent they lost to the NFL.

We've seen what Ole Miss is capable of against two great defenses the last two weeks.  The Rebels won 34-26 at Oklahoma for 60 combined points and lost 43-35 to Georgia for 78 combined points.  I have no doubt the Rebels will get their points again this week, and South Carolina will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.

The Gamecocks have one of the best QB's in the SEC in La'Norris Sellers who will be game.  Sellers played well in a 29-22 loss to Alabama last week.  He threw for 222 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 67 yards and a score.  I think he is in line for one of his biggest games of the season against an Ole Miss defense that also has taken a big step down from last season with all of the talent lost to the NFL.

The Gamecocks also like to play fast ranking 41st in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game with more opportunities for points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Oxford too with temps in the 50's, no wind and only a 20% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +21

The Michigan Wolverines aren't the team you want to be laying three touchdowns with.  They have a run-heavy offense and they play at a snail's pace.  Those facts alone make it difficult for them to cover these big numbers.

Michigan ranks 19th in run play percentage at 58.7% and 105th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds.  The Wolverines have been held to 24 points or fewer in four consecutive games basically when you take away the breakaway 56-yard TD run against Michigan State when they were just trying to run out the clock last week.  The managed 24 against Washington, 13 against USC and 24 against Wisconsin.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Purdue after six straight losses and five straight non-covers.  This is a team that is going to keep fighting under a first-year head coach in Barry Odom.  They outgained Minnesota and deserve to win, they were pretty even in the stats in their loss to Illinois, and they had control of the game against Rutgers basically the entire way until the final seconds in a 3-point loss.  Their only loss by more than 19 points this season came on the road at Notre Dame.

I like the matchup for Purdue because their defensive weakness is against the pass, but they have held up well against the run.  They allow just 4.0 yards per carry on the season, holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages.  Michigan threw for just 86 yards against Michigan State last week as the passing game continues to struggle.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +7.5

The Kansas State Wildcats remain undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS start this season with losses by 3, 3 and 6 points.  The Wildcats have since gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming by a single point at Baylor on a 52-yard FG as 6-point dogs.  They crushed UCF by 14 as 6-point home favorites, upset TCU by 13 as 3-point home dogs and upset Kansas 42-17 as 3-point road dogs.

The Wildcats had a bye prior to that win over Kansas, so they should still be very fresh for this game against Texas Tech and will be relishing this opportunity to try and knock off a Top 15 opponent.  Avery Johnson is really playing well right now at QB with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

We saw how vulnerable the Red Raiders were in their last road game falling 26-22 at Arizona State as 7-point favorites.  Kansas State is better than Arizona State.  The Red Raiders were outgained 276 to 394 by the Sun Devils, or by 118 yards.  The weakness is this Texas Tech secondary, which allowed 30-of-39 passing for 245 yards to Kansas and 319 passing yards to Sam Leavitt and ASU.  Johnson should have a big game through the air here in likely leading K-State to an upset victory, but we'll take the inflated +7.5 for some extra cushion.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Kansas State OVER 51.5

This numbers looks too short for how good both of these offenses are playing right now.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout in Manhattan Saturday with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.

Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in seven of its eight games this season and ranks 5th in the country in scoring at 40.3 points per game.  The Red Raiders get back starting QB Behren Morton for this one, and while there's not a huge difference between him and backup Will Hammond, the offense has more big play potential with his stronger arm.

Kansas State has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games and is averaging 37.8 points per game during this stretch.  Avery Johnson is playing the best football of his career with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

Texas Tech and Kansas State have combined for at least 52 points in four of their last five meetings and 16 of their last 18 meetings overall.  This total of 51.5 is very short for a game involving these two Big 12 rivals.  Texas Tech ranks 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds despite blowing out most of its opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +10.5

Virginia Tech still has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Hokies are showing great value catching double-digits at home to Louisville Saturday.  The Hokies returned from their bye with a 42-34 win over California racking up 476 total yards including 357 rushing, outgaining the Golden Bears by 151 yards.

Now they should still be fresh and know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' to try and beat a Top 25 team here in Louisville.  I think the Cardinals are overvalued since upsetting Miami 24-21 on the road as 10-point dogs two weeks ago as the Hurricanes basically handed them the victory with 4 turnovers.

Louisville came back last week predictably flat in a 38-24 home win over Boston College as 26-point favorites.  That's a Boston College team that is on a 6-game losing streak including home losses to UConn by 15 and Clemson by 31, and a road loss to Pitt by 41 in its previous three games coming in.  It was a bad, bad look for Louisville.

This will be Louisville's first trip to Blacksburg since joining the ACC 11 years ago.  The Cardinals are 0-3 all-time in Blacksburg, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  Their home field is worth more than is being factored into the line here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Iowa State -5.5

I jumped on Iowa State as soon as I heard that Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was out.  I got further good news when WR Jordan Tyson was listed as doubtful.  I would still play Iowa State up to -10 given the news.

Leavitt and Tyson are worth more to the point spread than is being factored into this line even at the current number.  I have the downgrade from Leavitt to backup Sims at least 7 points.  Sims hasn't won anywhere he has gone, and he is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt on his 49 passes and 3.0 yards per carry on his 29 rushes this season.  Tyson may be the best receiver in the country, catching 57 balls for 628 yards and 8 TD this season while single-handedly carrying the Sun Devils to their victory over Texas Tech two games ago.

Tyson was out and Leavitt got hurt in the 2H of their 24-16 home loss to Houston as 7.5-point favorites last week.  They actually trailed that game 24-0 in a misleading final.  Houston's mediocre offense had great success against this ASU defense finishing with 384 total yards despite sitting on the ball in the 2H, or it could have been worse.

Iowa State is a prideful team, and coming off three consecutive Big 12 losses the Cyclones have piss and vinegar running through their blood.  They also want revenge on Arizona State after losing to them in the Big 12 Championship Game last year to cost them a shot at the 12-team playoff.  I expect a big effort from the Cyclones Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three misleading losses.  They were missing a ton of starters in their 38-30 loss at Cincinnati in which they were only outgained by 9 yards.  They outgained Colorado by 46 yards in a 24-17 road loss in which they were done in by official.  And last week they outgained BYU 495 to 410, or by 85 total yards, but were -3 in turnovers including two interceptions that were both basically 14-point swings.  One pick 6 and one INT deep in BYU territory.

Iowa State got a much-needed bye two weeks ago and returned with a big performance against BYU in a game they had like a 70% post-game win expectancy, the biggest of any team that loss last week.  They are much healthier now and should still be pretty fresh for this one.  Not only are the Sun Devils without their two best players, but they are also a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week after three very physical games against Utah, Texas Tech and Houston.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Texas ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

Vanderbilt really profiles as an UNDER team.  The Commodores rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  Possessions are limited in their games, so points are much harder to come by.

Texas also profiles as an UNDER team with a terrible offense and a great defense.  Texas is 5-3 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in five of its eight games, including 37 or fewer combined points four times.

Texas ranks 10th in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, 20th in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 12th at 4.4 yards per play.  But the Longhorns have an underwhelming offense with Arch Manning, who is questionable for this one coming off a concussion.  I'm good with the UNDER whether or not he plays.  The Longhorns rank 78th in total offense at 375.6 yards per game and 75th at 5.6 yards per play.  This is the worst offense of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas.

Vanderbilt is 3-1 UNDER in its four SEC games this season finishing with 38 combined points with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 27 with Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Illinois OVER 62

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 62.8 points per game in those 16 games.  This total of 62 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 27 points in 10 of their last 12 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over three weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own two weeks ago putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 30.6 points per game, 425.9 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.7 yards per play, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 31.4 points per game, averaging 426 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.

Illinois is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 67 combined points with Washington, 70 with Purdue, 66 with USC and 73 with Indiana.  The only game that stayed under was against Ohio State in a 34-16 loss for 50 combined points with a 51-point total, but Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is a dead nuts under team.

Like Rutgers, Illinois' offense is way ahead of its defense this season.  The Fighting Illini are scoring 32.9 points per game.  Senior QB Luke Altmyer has been awesome, completing 71.2% of his passes for 2,020 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt despite facing a tough schedule.  He is going to shred this suspect Rutgers defense.

It has been a bad look for this Illinois defense in conference play.  Indeed, the Fighting Illini are allowing 39.6 points per game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big Ten action.  Rutgers is going to be able to keep scoring as it tries to keep up with Illinois in a shootout.  The forecast looks great Saturday with temps approaching 50, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Navy/North Texas OVER 65.5

This should be a back-and-forth shootout between two of the best offenses in the country up against two of the worst defenses in the country.  North Texas ranks 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  The forecast looks great for a shootout in Denton with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation Saturday.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.

North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 46.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 494.5 yards per game and 17th at 6.8 yards per play.  QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 67.7% of his passes with a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Navy's biggest weakness is against the pass because they don't get to practice against a decent passing game every week.  In their three games against decent passing attacks they allowed 321 passing yards to UAB, 345 to Temple and 381 to Florida Atlantic.  North Texas has a better offense and passing game than all three of those teams.

Navy is 6-1 OVER in all games this season going for 62 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  North Texas is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games finishing with 63 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 69 or more five times.  Both teams have incentive to keep running it up if they get ahead as both are in contention for the 12-team playoff.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy +7

What more does Navy have to do to get some respect? The Midshipmen should not be catching a full touchdown at North Texas this week, and they likely shouldn't be catching any points at all.

After going 10-3 last season, the Midshipmen brought almost everyone back and are off to a 7-0 start this season.  I like the fact that they've failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games coming into this one because it has provided us with some extra line value to back them this week.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas is 7-1 this season but I have not been impressed.  They won by 3 over Western Michigan as 11.5-point road favorites and by 7 as 2.5-point road favorites at Army in OT.  Army is nowhere near as good as Navy, and North Texas was very fortunate to win that game.  Against the only team the caliber of Navy they have faced this season they were crushed 63-36 at home by South Florida as 2.5-point favorites.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +3.5

I question how much Baylor really wants to finish out the season at this point.  The Bears are coming off consecutive road losses to TCU 42-36 and to Cincinnati 41-20.  The Bears only managed 266 total yards against a mediocre Cincinnati defense last week as their offense finally couldn't make up for one of the worst defenses in the country.

Baylor ranks 120th in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 101st in total defense at 403.1 yards per game.  The Bears are wasting a great QB in Sawyer Robertson, who is forced to try and keep up in shootouts week after week.  Even when they win it's not by margin as they are 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season with a 3-point win in OT against SMU and a 1-point win over Kansas State.  The only two teams they beat by more than 3 points this season were FCS Samford and the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State.

UCF is improving under first-year head coach Scott Frost.  The Knights are coming off their best performance of the season in a 45-13 win over West Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  They had a bye last week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Baylor, which is a huge advantage for teams with a first-year head coach.

UCF had a misleading 20-11 loss at Cincinnati the week prior.  UCF actually outgained Cincinnati 413 to 306, or by 107 total yards.  Holding that Cincinnati offense to just 306 total yards is no joke.  They went on to outgain WVU 578 to 210, or by 368 total yards.  The Knights have a much better defense than they get credit for, and the bye week gives QB Tayven Jackson extra time to overcome some injuries that have plagued him thus far.  

UCF is the better team, period.  The Knights average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  The Bears average 6.1 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play.  The Knights are primed for a big effort here and I fully expect them to pull off the upset, but we'll take the +3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -10.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their four games while getting outscored by 19.0 points per game.  There isn't much to like about this team other than Zion Williamson, who is already banged up to start the season.  This is one of the worst rosters in the league.

The Clippers have one of the best rosters in the league.  The starting 5 of Harden, Leonard, Zubac, Beal and Dunn is elite.  And the bench of Collins, Jones Jr., Collins, Lopez, Batum and Paul is about as good as it gets.

The Clippers have been impressive in their two home games this season beating the Suns by 27 and the Blazers by 7.  They lost their two road games to Utah and Golden State.  They are coming off a blowout loss to the Warriors where they went ice cold in the 2H.  They have had the last two days off to correct their mistakes, and they should be fired up to bounce back here against the weakest opponent they have faced yet this season.  

Look for them to take out their frustration on the Pelicans tonight, and they have incentive to get margin with this being a NBA Cup game and point differential a key tiebreaker.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Blazers OVER 238.5

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

Both the Blazers and Nuggets are dead nuts OVER teams as it is.  The Blazers are 4-1 OVER in their five games this season, including 270 combined points at the end of regulation with the Jazz last time out.  The Nuggets are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season finishing with 241 or more combined points in three of their four games.

The Blazers rank 2nd in pace this season as they are playing a frenetic brand of basketball.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  The Nuggets rank 3rd in offensive rating and should be fully healthy coming into this one.  They are scoring 128.3 points per game on 52.7% shooting and should get whatever they want against the Blazers in this one.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Blazers finishing with 237 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Lakers/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 238

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are dead nuts OVER teams as it is playing great offense and terrible defense.  The Lakers are 5-0 OVER in their five games this season despite playing without Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  Well, Doncic is expected back tonight for the NBA Cup.  The Lakers rank 18th in defensive rating and will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

The Grizzlies are 3-2 OVER in their five games this season finishing with 249 or more combined points three times.  Memphis ranks 3rd in pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Grizzlies rank 17th in defensive rating at this point.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lakers and Grizzlies finishing with 240 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings!  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Bulls OVER 233.5

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  Their trend of playing faster last season has continued this season as they rank 6th in pace.  They went for 239 combined points with the Kings and 251 with the Hawks in their last two games coming in.

The Knicks are loaded offensively this season and will be up against a Bulls defense that will be the weakest they have faced yet after having to go up against the Cavs, Celtics, Heat and Bucks to this point.  I think the Knicks will put up their highest point total of the season tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Bulls and Knicks finishing with 239 or more combined points four times, including 265, 247 and 245 in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Rice ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Rice +14

This is a bad spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating South Florida 34-31 in a game that many felt was the AAC Championship Game.  They have a short week while also having to travel clear to Houston to face Rice.  And they have an even bigger game against Tulane on deck that could decide which team makes the AAC Championship Game.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Memphis.

The Tigers could easily have three losses this season and probably should have three losses.  They did lose 31-24 at UAB as 24-point favorites in a clear lookahead spot with USF on deck.  They trailed Arkansas 28-10 late in the 3rd quarter at home before a bevy of Razorbacks blunders allowed them to come back and win 32-31, including a fumble when they were just trying to run out the clock to set up the game-winning FG.  Last week they trailed South Florida 31-17 heading into the 4th quarter before scoring 17 unanswered points to win 34-31, again taking advantage of USF mistakes.  USF outgained Memphis 564 to 450, or by 104 total yards.

Rice returned from a bye last week and upset UConn 37-34 as 10-point home dogs.  That's a UConn team that has been impressive this season.  The Owls used their bye week to really hone in on offensive improvement, and they put forth their best effort of the season racking up 491 total yards on the Huskies.  They rushed for 300 and threw for 191 more on 17-of-22 passing in a completely dominant effort on that side of the football.

Rice QB Chase Jenkins is completing 69.4% of his passes on the season whlie also rushing for 332 yards and four scores.  He is much better than he gets credit for, and this Rice offense should be able to move the ball at will on the ground against a Memphis defense that allowed 219 rushing yards to UAB and 295 to USF the last two weeks.

Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is not 100% and less of a dual-threat now than he was to start the season.  He was knocked out of the UAB and game and questionable all week leading up to the USF game.  Rice has been solid defensively this season allowing 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and 5.7 yards per play overall.  They are holding opponents to 28 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play less than their season averages.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game for Rice.  The Owls will be looking at this like their 'national championship game', while the Tigers want to just get in and get out with a win.  I think it will be tough sledding for the Tigers given the sandwich spot on the short week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Rice win this game outright, but getting a full 14 points is a gift.  Bet Rice Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Heat/Spurs OVER 232.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They did go for just 222 combined points against the Knicks in their next game, but the Knicks shot 39% from the field and 28% from 3.  They came back with a 144-117 home win over the Hornets last time out for 261 combined points.

The Heat rank 7th in offensive rating this season and take on a Spurs team that ranks 6th in offensive rating.  The Spurs have a lot of talent surrounding Victor Wembenyama, who has been a monster offensively to start the season.  Castle, Vassell, Johnson and Dylan Harper have played well to start, and this team has pretty good offensive chemistry former from late last season.

But this is a big step up in class for this San Antonio defense after getting to face the Raptors, Nets, Pelicans and Mavericks.  I don't think they will be ready for what the Heat bring to the table here playing at a breakneck pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +6

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with their lone loss coming by 4 in their opener at Orlando as 8-point dogs.  They came back and crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, and crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

You could make the argument that the Spurs are undervalued as well, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS to start the season.  But it's the Spurs that are 6-point favorites here when this line should be much closer to PK.  And this will be a big step up in class for the Spurs after beating four of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks, Pelicans, Nets and Raptors to start the season.  Those four teams are a combined 3-16 this season!

The Heat own the Spurs, going 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings including five consecutive victories.  Their lone loss came by 4 points.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Ravens/Dolphins AFC No-Brainer on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have new life.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling with consecutive losses to fall to 4-3 on the season.  Now the Ravens are just two games back of the Steelers despite their disastrous 2-5 start to the season.  But that start has provided us with some line value on the Ravens moving forward.

Injuries were the biggest reason to the poor start.  The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since Week 4, and they have been without several key defenders who are all healthy now.  Jackson is back this week, and Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey are all healthy now after all previously missed time.

No question the Ravens have one of the league's top offenses when Jackson is healthy, and the defense is going to be one of the best in the league moving forward.  That was on display last week when the Ravens shut down the Bears 30-16 last week, winning and covering easily even with Tyler Huntley at QB.  They made life very tough on Caleb Williams and an improved Bears offense under Ben Johnson.

Now the Ravens take a big step down in class here against the injury-depleted Miami Dolphins, who are 2-6 this season.  The Dolphins are without two of their biggest playmakers on offense in Tyreke Hill and Darren Waller, and Waller's replacement in Julian Hill is out this week.  And already terrible Dolphins defense will be without CB Storm Duck and SS Ashtyn Davis this week, and DE Bradley Chubb is questionable.

The Dolphins are getting some respect after a 34-10 win in Atlanta last week.  Well, the Falcons were without QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London, and they were missing several starters on defense as well.  Bettors are quick to forget that the Dolphins lost 31-6 to the lowly Browns the previous week.  They have zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Ravens.

The Dolphins have some terrible numbers.  They are averaging just 286 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 344 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in YPP on offense and 26th in YPP on defense.

I bet the Ravens -6.5 as soon as the line came out and would still play them at -7.5.  The Ravens also make a great teaser candidate this week if you want to use them in teasers it is a free bingo space.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall/Coastal Carolina OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  That has been on display the last four weeks as the Thundering Herd are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.  They beat Middle Tennessee 42-28 for 70 combined points, lost 54-51 to Louisiana for 105 combined points, beat ODU 48-24 for 72 combined points and beat Texas State 40-37 for 77 combined points.

This total of 54.5 is very short for a game involving Marshall.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 74.4% of his passes for 1,133 yards with a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 348 yards and four scores.  

The Thundering Herd will be able to name their number against a Coastal Carolina defense that ranks 98th in scoring at 28.3 points per game and 109th in total defense at 409.7 yards per game.  The Chanticleers allowed 37 points to App State, 47 to Old Dominion, 38 to ECU and 48 to Virginia.

The Chanticleers are 2-1-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 82 points with App State, 54 with ODU and 58 with South Alabama.  The only game that went under came against a dead nuts under team in ULM that plays slow, only runs the ball and had QB injuries.

Coastal Carolina plays at the 31st-fastest tempo in college football.  The Chanticleers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season putting up 45 points on Appalachian State.  They also put up 38 points on South Alabama, and they should keep it rolling tonight against a Marshall defense that ranks 114th in scoring defense at 30.9 points per game, 114th in total defense at 413.6 yards per game and 115th allowing 6.2 yards per play.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets OVER 239

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Orlando Magic visit the Charlotte Hornets.  The Magic are 3-2 OVER this season with 251, 260 and 246 combined points in their three OVERS.  The Hornets are 4-0 OVER this season with 253, 246, 252 and 261 combined points in their four games.

The Hornets will remain a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy.  They rank 4th in pace, 4th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating.  The additions of Collin Sexton (18.5 PPG, 58.1% FG's) and Kon Knueppel (16.0 PPG, 52.3% FG's) have only added more firepower for them offensively.

The Magic were previously a dead nuts under team.  But they completely changed their offensive philosophy this season.  They rank 9th in pace and are making a point of playing faster.  It has hurt them defensively as they rank 23rd in defensive rating.  They allowed 135 points to the Pistons, 136 to the 76ers and 121 to the Heat.  Both teams will get whatever they want offensively in this game, and it will see a ton of possessions with two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Jazz OVER 233

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 6th in pace and have one of the best young rosters in the NBA.  The Jazz have some offensive firepower, but they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

The Blazers are 3-1 OVER this season going for 230 or more combined points in three of their four games.  The only game that stayed under was against the Clippers, who are a dead nuts under team playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA and also one that plays sound defense.

The Jazz are 2-1 OVER in their three games including 237 combined points with that same Clippers team and 248 at the end of regulation against the Suns.  Both of those games were at home, where they tend to score more.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blazers and Jazz finishing with 236 or more combined points in four of the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 5 No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Blue Jays and Dodgers have combined for at least 8 runs in five of their six meetings since August 9th.  Both teams are scoring over 5.0 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in baseball.  The offenses will continue to have the advantage in Game 5, especially with temps in the 80's tonight with the ball flying out.

This is a rematch from Game 1 where Toronto beat LA 11-4 for 15 combined runs.  Trey Yesavage allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings.  Yesavage has now allowed 9 earned runs and 22 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last three playoff starts.  He won't last very long in this one, and the Dodgers should do some damage against this suspect Toronto bullpen.

Blake Snell was shelled for 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings in Game 1 to the Blue Jays.  Snell hasn't lasted more than 5 innings in any of his last three starts against Toronto.  So the Dodgers' suspect bullpen will get exposed in this one as well, and both teams should continue to pour on the runs in the later innings.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three upset wins over the Hawks, Magic and Pistons.  They remain undervalued here as only 4.5-point favorites at home over the Kings, especially when you consider the favorable spot they are in.

The Bulls had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.  The Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after a tough 107-101 road loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They gave up a 17-4 run at the end.

I was on the Kings +10.5 last night because it was a good spot for them as the Thunder were short-handed and playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But now I'm fading them here as I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Bulls, who will test their tired legs by playing at a frenetic pace tonight.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Kings last night.

The Kings are 1-3 SU with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Utah Jazz.  They also lost to the short-handed Suns, the short-handed Lakers and the short-handed Thunder at the time they played them.  The Bulls are at near full strength tonight and will blow the Kings out of the building.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Nets OVER 235.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they play no defense.  Now they face a Brooklyn Nets team that also plays no defense.  This game should sail OVER this 235.5-point total tonight.

The Nets rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating allowing 131.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 24th allowing 118.1 points per 100 possessions.  But the Hawks are elite offensively, and the Nets have some scoring punch in the likes of Cam Thomas, Michael Porter Jr. and Terance Mann.

The Nets are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season combining for 253 points with the Hornets, 255 with the Cavs and 246 with the Rockets, who are a dead nuts under team that plays at the slowest pace in the NBA.  The Hawks went for 256 combined points with the Raptors and 251 with the Bulls.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236 or more combined points in all three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1.5

This is a very favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  The Clippers had yesterday off and haven't had to play a back-to-back yet this season.  They have two more days off after this game, so they will be fully focused and ready to go.

This is a terrible spot for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 131-118 home win over the Memphis Grizzlies last night.  It will be their 2nd back-to-back already this season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Warriors rest some guys tonight.  All five starters played at least 27 minutes last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Clippers, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA this season.

The Clippers simply own the Warriors.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They beat the Rockets and Pacers in OT, and they only beat the Mavericks by 7.  They should not be favored by double-digits tonight given all their injuries and their disadvantage in the rest department.

The Thunder couldn't possibly be more tired than they are right now.  Those two OT games took a lot out of them, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 101-94 win at Dallas last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.

The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe tonight.  These injuries are a big reason the Thunder haven't been blowing teams out on the regular like they did last season.

The Kings couldn't be more rested as they had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game of the season.  They are also highly motivated for a win after opening 1-2 with both losses coming by 4 and 7 points.  The Kings are also pretty much fully healthy with a very good starting lineup and two nice pieces off the bench in Monk and Westbrook.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

20* Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 4 No-Brainer on OVER 8

The 18-inning marathon last night taxed both of these bullpens.  I don't trust either Shane Bieber or Shohei Ohtani to be able to go very deep in Game 4, and the hitters should have the advantage.  Temps will be approaching 90 at game time for this one so the ball should be carrying out as well.

Ohtani has to be especially tired after playing all 18 innings last night and reaching base 9 times!  I really think it could affect his performance on the mound, and at the very least he won't be as sharp as he normally would.  He may wear down after a few innings.

The Dodgers should crush Shane Bieber, who has allowed at least 2 earned runs in five consecutive starts and a total of 6 homers in his last five starts.  Ohani has posted a 5.25 ERA in two career home starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 innings.  Both bullpens will get rocked when they depart.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* CFB Tuesday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on UTEP +10

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State.  The Owls are 5-2 overall and 3-0 in C-USA play while sitting in 1st place in the conference.  They have benefited from playing the 126th-ranked schedule in the country.

The Owls also benefited from LA Tech's starting QB getting knocked out early in their last home game, and they are coming off a misleading 45-26 win at FIU last week in which they were outgained and allowed a whopping 518 total yards to FIU.  They lost some key defenders to injury in that game, and also their starting QB Odom and starting RB Bennett, who are both listed as questionable to play this week.

While Kennesaw State was watching its roster get decimated by injuries in the win over FIU last Tuesday, UTEP was sitting, resting and watching.  The Miners had a bye last week and will be the fresher, more prepared team tonight as a result.

I was happy to see UTEP finally bench QB Malachi Nelson in their last game, a 35-17 win over Sam Houston State.  They must have felt like they had to start him after paying him in the transfer portal, but they have finally done the right thing and started the much more talented Skyler Locklear in his place.

Locklear went 21-of-26 for 236 yards and 2 TD with 1 INT, while also rushing for 48 yards and two scores in the 35-17 win over Sam Houston State last time out.  The Miners racked up 411 total yards in the win.  Their offense will be much more explosive moving forward, and their defense is one of the most underrated in C-USA.

In fact, the Miners have the much better defense than the Owls in this one.  UTEP only allows 5.1 yards per play on defense including 3.7 yards per rush.  Kennesaw State allows 5.7 yards per play on defense and 4.5 yards per rush.  So we are getting the rested team with the better defense and an improved offense catching double-digits here.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat OVER 239.5

This is a matchup between two dead nuts OVER teams that should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season by the end of regulation.  Both the Heat and Hornets want to play fast this season, and that will be on display tonight.

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They did go for just 222 combined points against the Knicks in their next game, but the Knicks shot 39% from the field and 28% from 3.

Charlotte ranks 5th in pace this season and will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the show.  The additions of rookie Knueppel and Collin Sexton from the Jazz give this offense some more juice.  The Hornets actually rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.

The Hornets went for 253 combined points with the Nets, 246 with the 76ers and 252 with the Warriors for a 3-0 OVER start to the season.  This total of 239.5 actually isn't that high for a game involving the Hornets, especially when you factor in they are playing the team that ranks No. 1 in pace this season in the Heat.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 226.5

The Lakers are 3-0 OVER in all games this season going for 228 combined points with the Warriors, 238 with the Timberwolves and 247 with the Kings.  And that effort against the Kings came without both Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  Their bench is terrible defensively but they can provide some offense, which is why they remain an OVER team.

The Blazers played at the fasted pace in the NBA in the preseason, and they currently rank 7th in pace through three games despite playing three teams that like to play slow while also playing great defense in the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves.  They went for 232 combined points with the Timberwolves, 258 with the Warriors and 221 with the Clippers.

The pace was there to cash the OVER against the Clippers last night, but the shooting was not.  The Blazers short 37% from the floor and 11-of-41 (27%) from 3-point range.  They will clearly shoot much better against the Lakers, one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a in a world of hurt right now without their two best players in Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  They managed to beat the Kings last night without these two thanks to a career game from Austin Reaves, who scored 51 points.  But he won't be able to do that again, and the Lakers will struggle on the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

Reaves played 39 minutes, Hachimura played 40 and Ayton 36 last night.  The Lakers also lost starting G Gabe Vincent to injury in that game and he is out for this one now.  They are just so short-handed right now, and the Blazers will test those tired legs playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.

The Blazers hung tough in a 7-point road loss to the Clippers last night.  So there is no travel involved which will keep them fresh.  The Blazers are one of the youngest, deepest teams in the NBA so they will be able to handle this situation better than the Lakers.

The Blazers are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS this season only losing by 4 to the Timberwolves, beating the Warriors by 20 and losing by 7 to the Clippers.  So they have played a brutal schedule thus far, and this is a big step down in class for them here against a Lakers team without three starters.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -5.5

This is a very favorable spot for the Nuggets.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game of the season.  The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game of the season already.

Making matters worse for the Timberwolves is that they lost their best player in Anthony Edwards for two weeks in their 114-110 win over the Pacers last night.  They will be pretty lost without him as Edwards just doesn't miss games and has played through injury his entire career thus far.

That was a very short-handed Pacers team last night and the Timberwolves struggled to put them away.  All four starters other than Edwards played at least 34 minutes, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are fully healthy to open the season and one of the best teams in the NBA when that's the case.  Jokic, Gordon, Murray and Braun are back and they replaced Michael Porter Jr. with Cam Johnson, who is a more consistent performer night in and night out.  I like the depth they added on the bench with Hardaway Jr, Brown and Valanciunas to go along with Peyton Watson.  The rested Nuggets will make easy work of the short-handed, tired Timberwolves tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Monday.

20* Commanders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 points per game and 411.8 total yards per game.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Commanders won't offer them any resistance tonight, and the Chiefs should hang up another big number here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Commanders rank 21st in scoring defense at 24.3 points per game, 27th in total defense at 364.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.  They just allowed 44 points to the Cowboys last week and they are so banged up on defense right now.  They have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL, and that secondary is getting no help with four key depth pieces on the defensive line on IR in Armstrong, Wise, Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  DT Daron Payne is questionable as well.

But a big reason I'm on the OVER this week is because the Commanders get back their two biggest playmakers in WR Terry McClaurin and WR Deebo Samuel from injury after both missed the Dallas game last week.  I'm not concerned about the drop off from Jaden Daniels to Marcus Mariota because Mariota has proven he can get it done when he has his weapons.

The OVER is 3-0 in Mariota's three starts this season combining for 65 points with the Raiders, 61 with the Falcons and 66 with the Cowboys.  Mariota went 15-of-21 for 207 yards and a TD in leading the Commanders to 41 points against the Raiders.  He threw another pair of TD passes in leading them to 27 points against the Falcons and didn't have McCLaurin in that game either.  The Commanders are fully healthy on offense coming into this one outside of QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers OVER 226.5

The Magic have transformed into more of an OVER team this season with the addition of Desmond Bane and the return to health of Jalen Suggs.  They have made a point of playing faster, as evidenced by them ranking 6th in the NBA in pace to this point.

The 76ers are 2-0 OVER in their two games this season going for 233 combined points with the Celtics and 246 with the Hornets.  They have two great guards in Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, and they have to go smaller without Joel Embiid tonight.  That should help with the OVER.  The 76ers are 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Clippers OVER 225.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team, and this total of 225.5 is very low for a game involving them.  The Blazers played at the fasted pace of any team in the preseason, and they are currently 5th in pace through two games this season.

Portland lost 118-114 at home to Minnesota for 232 combined points and beat Golden State 139-119 for 258 combined points in its first two games this season.  This is a young, deep lineup that likes to get out and run and force the pace with pressure defense as well.

The Clippers lost 129-108 to the Jazz for 237 combined points and beat the Suns 129-102 for 231 combined points.  They played at a snail's pace in both games and still easily topped this total.  It was played slower because of the blowout nature of the two games as starters were pulled in the 4th quarter of both.

This should be a competitive game so both teams should be playing their starters deep into the 4th quarter.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Blazers and Clippers with 232 or more combined points in five of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

Both the Kings and Lakers look like dead nuts OVER teams this season with all offense and no defense.  The Lakers rank 4th in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating through two games. The Kings rank in the middle of the pack in both.

The Lakers are 2-0 OVER in their two games this season combining for 228 points with the Warriors in their opener and 238 points with the Timberwolves last time out.   Luka Doncic had 49 points against the Timberwolves and is all offense and no defense again this season.

The Kings combined for 236 points with the Suns in their opener.  They only went for 209 with the Jazz last time out, but both teams shot very poorly.  The Jazz shot 13-of-41 from 3, and there were very few fouls called and easy points for both teams.

Both teams have pretty small lineups, particularly the Kings who are going with LaVine, Schroder, DeRozan, Jones and Sabonis and bringing Monk, Westbrook and Ellis off the bench.  The Lakers go Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, Vincent and Ayton, who is a good offensive big man but doesn't provide much defensively.  I also like LaRavia who is instant offense off the bench.

The Lakers and Kings have gone for at least 227 combined points in 12 of their last 14 meetings, including 234 or more in 10 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3.5

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  They will be playing with piss and vinegar in their blood after getting upset 33-31 by the Bengals on Thursday Night Football last week.  They could have been caught looking ahead to this huge game, which is the Aaron Rodgers revenge game.  It's the first time Rodgers will get a shot at his former team, and his Steelers teammates love him.  They will rally around him and get him that win, and at the very least the Steelers should not be 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.

Rodgers is proving he's still got it, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while only getting sacked 9 times.  Nobody gets the ball out faster than Rodgers, so I'm not concerned with Micah Parsons and this Green Bay pass rush.  Cleveland has a similar pass rush, and the Steelers dominated them 23-9 two weeks ago.  Rodgers went 21-of-30 for 235 yards and 2 TD and didn't get sacked once against the Browns.

This Pittsburgh defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL moving forward if they remain as healthy as they are right now.  Injuries were a big reason they struggled up to this point as they have been without CB Porter Jr., FS Elliott and LB Highsmith among others at times.  But they are fully healthy on defense now, and the Packers are fully healthy on offense as well with only C Frazier questionable.  In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a team more healthy than the Steelers right now.

The Packers have just been getting by and are very close to being on a 4-game losing streak right now.  They lost outright as 7.5-point road favorites at Cleveland, they tied the Cowboys as 6.5-point road favorites, they only beat the Bengals by 9 off their bye week as 14-point home favorites, and last week they escaped with a 27-23 road win as 7-point favorites against Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.  They were held to 262 total yards and were outgained by 68 yards by the lowly Cardinals last week.

This is a tired Packers team playing their 4th road game in 5 games.  The Steelers have the extra rest and preparation time from playing last Thursday, and I think that advantage will really work in their favor here as they will be more ready for the Packers.  Mike Tomlin is 19-13 SU & 22-7-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Steelers Sunday night.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Broncos OVER 47.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 47.5 Sunday night assuming it would go up and it has.  I would still make this a 25* play up to the key number of 51.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 7-0 to the OVER this season instead of 5-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their five OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers and 66 combined points with the Commanders to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 31.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 390.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 29.4 points per game, 32nd in total defense allowing 401.6 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, FS Thomas and SS Wilson which are five starters.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers to name a few.

This Denver defense is grossly overrated this season after playing an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season.  They have faced an easy slate this season as well already getting to face Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields and Jaxon Dart.  In their one game against a legit, healthy offense the Broncos found themselves in a 29-28 shootout with the Colts and allowed 473 total yards in the loss.  This Dallas offense is right in line with the Colts, and the Cowboys should have a lot of success against this Denver defense.

Bo Nix will be able to keep up in a shootout because he is going to have to.  He has proven he can when he needs to as he led them to a 33-32 comeback win over the Giants last week and 65 combined points.  He kept up with the Colts in a game that saw 57 combined points.  Sean Payton will be in his bag against this Cowboys defense, which is easily the worst he and Nix have been up against all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -6

Note: I released this play Sunday night with the anticipation Lamar Jackson would be back this week.  I'm usually good at knowing injury information before most and getting ahead of line moves as evidenced by the closing line value I have on my other NFL plays this week.  But I was off the mark on this one.  When Jackson was practicing Wednesday, Thursday and getting a full practice in Friday, the line went to Ravens -7 and was pushing -7.5.  But he has since been announced out as of Saturday, and the Ravens will turn to Tyler Huntley at QB.  No question it's a downgrade for the Ravens, but I would still play them as a 25* up to -2.5, and a 20* at anything worse if you are buying this play later on in the week.

The Ravens are primed for a big performance coming out of their bye week.  They have opened 1-5 this season against the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL.  They have faced the #1 schedule of opposing offenses and the #2 schedule of opposing defenses.  They have also faced the #1 toughest schedule of opposing QB's.  Couple that will all of the injuries they have suffered, and it's no wonder they have opened 1-5.

While Lamar Jackson will be out this week, reinforcements are on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised to still see them win by a TD or more with Tyler Huntley at QB.  Huntley knows this offense and was a huge reason the Ravens ran off a NFL record 24 straight preseason wins.  He has ample playmakers on offense to make this work.

But I'm most excited about this Baltimore defense, which has been without starters Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey at times this season.  Well, all of them are back coming out of the bye week, and this will be the most improved defense in the NFL moving forward.

This is the perfect storm of 'buying low' on the Ravens and 'selling high' on the Chicago Bears.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They won 25-24 on a blocked FG against the Raiders and a fumble on a simple handoff in a 25-24 win over the Commanders when they were just trying to run out the clock.  They took advantage of a Cowboys team at home that got decimated by injuries throughout the game, and they beat the lowly Saints at home.

I think it has been a lot more luck than actual good football from the Bears.  In fact, the Bears are +13 in turnovers in their last four games, forcing 15 and only committing 2!  That's unsustainable.  While the Bears are due some negative turnover regression, the Ravens are due some positive turnover regression.  Baltimore is -7 in turnover differential this season, committing 10 and forcing only 3.

The Bears will be without three starters in their secondary in CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Tyrique Stevenson and NB Kyler Gordon.  They will also be without TE Cole Kmet and LT Braxton Jones, while RB D'Andre Swift is questionable for this one.  The Bears are actually much worse off than the Ravens on the injury front right now.

The Bears rank dead last (32nd) in allowing 6.4 yards per play on defense.  They have just gotten away with it due to good turnover luck.  I wouldn't be surprised to still see the Ravens win and cover the original line of -6 that I got early in the week.  I fully expect them to win this game Sunday even without Lamar.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

The Bengals sit at 3-4 on the season and very much alive in the AFC North.  They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers as well.  The Bengals will be max motivated here hosting the Jets with a chance to get back to .500 on the season.  And they host the Bears next week, so they know this is a very important stretch for them.

Joe Flacco has proven what he can do with the best set of weapons he's ever had in his career here in Cincinnati.  He came in midweek and found himself in a one-score game as 15-point road underdogs to the Packers late in the 4th quarter.  Then he came back on a short week on a Thursday night and led the Bengals to a 33-31 home win over said Steelers.

Flacco went 31-of-47 for 342 yards and 3 TD while leading the Bengals to 470 total yards against a very healthy, good Steelers defense.  He found Jamar Chase 16 times for 161 yards and Tee Higgins 6 times for 96 yards.  His success in the passing game finally opened things up for Chase Brown, who rushed for 108 yards on only 11 carries.

The Bengals beat the Steelers without their best defensive player in DE Trey Hendrickson (15 tackles, 3 sacks).  Well, Hendrickson is back this week now that he has the extra rest to recover after the Bengals played last Thursday.  The Bengals will be very fresh, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  They are primed for another big effort Sunday.

The Jets continue to get too much respect week in and week out despite being 0-7 this season.  Bettors continue to back them blindly thinking they will get their first win.  It didn't happen last week hosting the Panthers, and it's not going to happen this week back on the road against the Bengals either.

The Jets were a respectable team early in the season before the injuries started to pile up.  But they just can't compete in their current state.  The defense will be without CB Sauce Gardner for the first time this season.  They are without DE Jay Tufele and LB Cam Jones, and they could also be without LB Quincy Williams.

The injuries are worse on offense.  QB Tryod Taylor was expected to take over for the ineffective Justin Fields, but he's out this week so the Jets are stuck with Fields again.  And he has no chance considering the Jets are without their two best receivers in Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds.  It's embarrassing what they are sending out there at receiver this week.  Also, RB Breece Hall and TE Mason Taylor are both questionable.  They were already without Hall's backup in Braelon Allen, and they miss that 1-2 punch because the running game was the only thing they had going for them offensively this season.

Offense has been embarrassing for the Jets, indeed.  The Jets were held to 82 total yards by the Broncos two weeks ago in London.  They were held to 6 points and 220 total yards by the Panthers last week.  They just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Bengals, who are going to score plenty in this one to win by a TD or more and likely a blowout.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +7.5

I love NFL teams like the Carolina Panthers because you can keep making money on them week after week.  They were terrible last year, so bettors fail to adjust their power rating enough in the first half of the season.  But this Panthers team is one of the most improved in the NFL, and the odds just continue to fail to catch up to them.

The Panthers are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, including a 30-0 win over the Falcons that is as impressive as any win you will find all season.  Now the Panthers find themselves as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills this week, and I'm going to take advantage and back them again.

My favorite thing about the Panthers is that they are great in the trenches on both sides of the football.  They are 7th in total defense at 295.7 yards per game and 8th against the run allowing 92.6 rushing yards per game.  They are 3rd in rushing offense at 140.1 yards per game and 8th at 4.7 yards per carry.

The formula to beat the Bills is to run the football and stop the run.  Josh Allen can't do it on his own without a complimentary running game, and the biggest weakness of the Bills is their run defense, which ranks 31st in allowing 156.3 yards per game and 32nd in allowing 5.8 yards per carry this season.  That's really poor when you consider the Bills have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season.

The Panthers are as healthy as anyone in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success.  I know Bryce Young will miss this game, but Andy Dalton is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL and steps into a great situation here.  This line is being adjusted too much for the perceived drop off from Young to Dalton.

A big reason the Bills have been upset in consecutive games is because they just aren't healthy.  They lost 23-20 as 8-point home favorites to the Patriots and 24-14 as 4-point road favorites at Atlanta.  Their defense has suffered the biggest blows as they will be without DT DaQuan Jones, SS Taylor Rapp, SS Damar Hamlin, and they could be without both LB Matt Milano and LB Terrell Bernard.  No wonder they struggle so much against the run.  They are also going to be without WR Josh Palmer and they could be without TE Dalton Kincaid again.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and continue to be overvalued this week.  Home underdogs of 7 or more points in the first nine games of the season are 40-11-2 ATS since 2020.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* Dodgers/Blue Jays Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -130

The Dodgers were 9-1 in the playoffs coming into the World Series.  I think the long layoff hurt them as they had a week in between sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS and Game 1 of the World Series.  They have no shaken off their rust after an 11-4 loss in Game 1, and I fully expect them to bounce back in Game 2 tonight.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts this season, including 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 19 road starts.  Yamamoto is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three playoff starts.  He is coming off a complete game 3-hitter in a 5-1 win over the Brewers in his last start.

Kevin Gausman is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He is 12-12 with a 3.45 ERA in 35 starts this season, including 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA in 18 home starts.  Gausman has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers in Game 2 Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tennessee/Kentucky OVER 54

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six of the eight games.  It should have been 64 or more in all seven games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama last week in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 54 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas and 57 with Alabama in their five games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 44.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 511 yards per game and 19th at 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,948 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas and 37 points to Alabama in their last five games.

After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  He will have great success against this Tennessee defense that could be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (61 tackles), who is questionable.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +9

The Tennessee Vols have no business being 9-point road favorites over the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend.  The Vols just suffered their 2nd loss of the season 37-20 at Alabama last week, and that loss is likely going to eliminate them not only from SEC title contention, but also playoff contention and they know it.  I think they suffer a 'hangover' here from that defeat.

Kentucky is no pushover, especially at home.  After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  They held Texas to 179 total yards and outgained them by 216 yards in one of the most misleading finals of the season to easily cover as in a 16-13 loss as 12-point dogs

In their other SEC home game, Kentucky only lost 30-23 to Ole Miss as 8.5-point dogs.  This is actually a step down in competition for them as both Texas and Ole Miss are better than Tennessee, and we are getting them as similar 9-point dogs here.  The Wildcats should still be fresh after having a bye two weeks ago, and they will be highly motivated for their first SEC win of the season.

Tennessee has just one win by more than 10 points in its last six meetings with Kentucky.  In their only two road games this season, the Volts are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS with their only win coming in OT by 7 as 7.5-point favorites at Mississippi State.  They also had that 17-point loss at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs.  They may very well lose this game outright as well, but at the very least it should be a one-score game either way.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Hawks OVER 235.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Hawks lost 138-118 at home to the Raptors in their opener for 256 combined points.  They came back with a 111-107 win at Orlando for 218 combined points.  But both teams shot terrible from 3-point range in that game.  The Hawks shot 8-of-29 (28%) while the Magic shot 9-of-31 (29%) and it still got to 218 points.

The Thunder ranked 5th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating last season.  They will be a juggernaut again with basically everyone back.  They will be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe for this one, and Williams was one of their best defenders last year.  No question they will miss both on offense, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They will also be without Alex Caruso, who brings a lot more to the table defensively than he does on offense.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 243 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers OVER 233.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the show.  Well, he's healthy to start the season, and we saw how potent the Hornets can be offensively with a 136-117 win over the Nets in their opener for 253 combined points.  What's amazing about that is there were only 45 combined points in the 4th quarter due to the blowout nature of the game.

Ball had 20 points and 8 assists in 33 minutes.  Brandon Miller is back healthy this season and had 25 points.  Ryan Kalkbrenner had 10 points and 11 rebounds, MIies Bridges has 18 points and rookie Knueppel had 11.  In fact, the Hornets had nine different players score in double figures.  I love that Collin Sexton comes off the bench to run the 2nd team so there isn't a huge drop off from Ball to him.  The Hornets will play fast, and they will be an elite offensive team and terrible defensive team again this season.

The 76ers are coming off a 117-116 road win over the Celtics in their opener for 233 combined points.  That's a Celtics team that lacks a lot of firepower due to injuries and personnel losses, and one that managed just 95 points against the Knicks in their next game out.

Philadelphia has a healthy Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid to start the season.  Maxey had 40 points against the Celtics and is a sleeper to win MVP.  But the real story is the sleeper to win Rookie of the Year in Baylor's VJ Edgecombe, who had 34 points in the opener.  And that dynamic backcourt duo is a reason the 76ers are going to be an OVER team this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State NBC No-Brainer on Michigan State +14.5

Getting 14.5 points with Michigan State at home in this rivalry game with Michigan is a great value.  This line is way out of whack, and the Wolverines have no business being favored by double-digits, let alone by more than two TD's on the road here.

Michigan is getting too much credit for a 5-2 start this season with four of those wins coming at home.  Their lone road win was a toss-up game at Nebraska, 30-27.  They lost 24-13 at Oklahoma while getting outgained by 120 yards, and they lost their other road game 31-13 at USC while getting outgained by 173 yards.  This will be another tough road game for them.

Michigan State has hung tough against a brutal schedule after opening 3-0 this season.  They are 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They covered in a 14-point loss at USC as 18.5-point dogs, covered in a 11-point loss at Nebraska as 13-point dogs and covered at Indiana last week.

I was impressed with how well the offense played against that elite Indiana defense as the Spartans finished with 367 total yards and were only outgained by 97 yards by the Hoosiers.  That was by far the toughest game either of these two teams have faced this season.  The Spartans also played USC tougher than Michigan did on the road for a common opponent.

Aidan Chiles went 27-of-33 for 243 yards and a TD without a turnover against that vaunted Indiana defense on the road last week.  He has two big-time playmakers in Nicholas Marsh (36 receptions 404 yards, 5 TD) and Omari Kelly (27, 406, 1 TD) on the outside, and I expect them to make enough plays to keep this thing close.

Michigan State has a strong run defense, and the key to stopping Michigan's offense is to stop the running game.  The Spartans are equipped to do that allowing 131.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season despite the brutal schedule to this point.  Michigan star RB Justice Haynes (705 yards, 8 TD, 7.4/carry) is questionable for this one after sitting out last game as well.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys hate the Colorado State Rams as this is a bitter rivalry.  The Cowboys are the better team in the better spot at home, and they will take no mercy on the Rams, who just fired head coach Jay Norvell in the midst of another disastrous season.

Colorado State is 2-5 this season and really could be 0-7.  They beat FCS Northern Colorado 21-17 as 35-point home favorites and needed the refs to hand it to them in the final seconds to get the game-winning score with 45 seconds remaining.  Their win over Fresno State was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They were +4 in turnovers and outgained by 135 yards by the Bulldogs.

The Rams have blowout losses to Washington by 17, Washington State by 17, SDSU by 21 and Hawaii by 12.  That home loss to Hawaii last week was the final nail in the coffin for Norvell as they were outgained by 174 yards by the Rainbow Warriors.  QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi hit the transfer portal after Norvell was let go, and more may follow.

Wyoming is trying to build something in the post-Greg Bohl era.  The Cowboys love second-year head coach Jay Sawvell, and they are playing hard and well for him.  This is a huge game for them to get back to .500 on the season with a pair of tough road games on deck at San Diego State and Fresno State.  I fully expect them to take advantage.

Looking at the numbers it's easy to see that Wyoming is the superior team.  The Cowboys are outgaining opponents by 17.2 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  The Rams are getting outgained by 79 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play, averaging just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.2 yards per play on defense.

Wyoming owns Colorado State, going 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  That includes a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Laramie.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Oklahoma State +38.5

Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season last week losing 26-22 at Arizona State.  I like fading teams the game after having their winning streak snapped because there tends to be a 'hangover' effect.  I don't expect we see the best effort from the Red Raiders this week, and they're going to need it to even come close to covering this ridiculous 38.5-point spread.

Texas Tech was outgained 394 to 276 by Arizona State, or by 118 total yards.  This Red Raiders offense just doesn't have as much juice without starting QB Behren Morton.  No question Will Hammond is one of the better backup QB's in the country, but it's still a drop off from Morton, who will be out this week.  Another big blow is the loss of DT Skyler Gill-Howard to a season-ending injury two games ago.  He was their best defensive linemen and best run stuffer.

I haven't had many breaks in college football this season, but one was cashing Cincinnati -21.5 last week against Oklahoma State.  The Bearcats closed as 24-point favorites, but they were not the right side even though they won 49-17 by 32 points.  The Cowboys were down 18 with 6 minutes left going into score, but threw a 100-yard INT return TD.  Cincinnati scored after a turnover again a few plays later, turning what was about to be an 11-point game into a 32-point blowout.

Cincinnati is a one-loss team and one of the best teams in the country, and Oklahoma State was only outgained by 50 yards by the Bearcats  I liked what I saw as the Cowboys are going to continue to fight for their interim head coach, and their offense looked as good as it has all season.  They rushed for 228 yards and Skyler Jackson completed 11-of-19 passes for 149 yards in the loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7.5

The Texas Longhorns have proven to be one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Arch Manning has been a bust, and this Texas offense just cannot be trusted.  That has played out in recent weeks once Texas stepped into SEC play.

The Longhorns lost 29-21 at Florida and were outgained by 116 yards by the Gators.  They took advantage of an Oklahoma team with a banged up QB and beat them 23-6, but it was a misleading final as they were +3 in turnovers and only outgained the Sooners by 44 yards.  And last week's 16-13 win as 12-point favorites at Kentucky was the most misleading of them all.  The Longhorns were outgained 395 to 179 by the Wildcats, or by 216 total yards.

Texas will be playing for a 4th consecutive week here against a tough SEC opponent, and I question how much the Longhorns have left in the tank.  Mississippi State is motivated for a win after losing three straight SEC games including two by one score.  The Bulldogs had a bye two weeks ago so they should be the much fresher team.

The Bulldogs returned from their bye last week and gave Florida all they could handle on the road, losing 23-21 as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Gators 468 to 452 for the game, and putting up 468 yards on that Florida defense is no joke.  That also gives them a common opponent to Texas, whose lone loss came 29-21 at Florida.

After two straight SEC road games, the Bulldogs return home where they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with their lone loss coming 41-34 (OT) to Tennessee as 7.5-point dogs.  Tennessee is better than Texas.  They also upset Arizona State 24-20 as 5.5-point dogs back when the Sun Devils were healthy.  The Cowboys will be ringing, and this will be a big home-field advantage for a rejuvenated Mississippi State fan base Saturday.

Texas is only averaging 274.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense in conference games this season.  This isn't the type of offense you want to be laying more than a score with on the road here.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Baylor/Cincinnati OVER 66.5

Baylor is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its seven games.  The Bears combined for 62 points with Auburn, 93 with SMU, 72 with Oklahoma State, 69 with Kansas State and 78 with TCU.  Auburn's offense has proven to be one of the worst in the country since then, and they allowed 38 points to the Tigers.  The Bears are 118th in scoring defense at 31.4 points pre game, 107th in total defense at 406.3 yards per game and 84th at 5.7 yards per play.

Baylor plays at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  The Bears are 26th in scoring at 36.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 486.1 yards per game and averaging 6.3 yards per play.  Sawyer Robertson is one of the best QB's in the nation, throwing for 2,376 yards and 21 touchdowns already.

Cincinnati is also a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 66 combined points with Oklahoma State, 68 with Iowa State, 71 with Kansas and 70 with Northwestern State in four of their last five games.

The Bearcats play at the 32nd-fastest tempo snapping it ever 24.6 seconds.  They rank 15th in scoring at 37.9 points per game, 29th in total offense at 446.4 yards pre game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play.  Brandan Sorsby has been awesome, throwing for 1,718 yards and 17 TD while also rushing for 340 yards and 6 scores.

This Cincinnati defense does leave a lot to be desired.  The Bearcats allowed 34 points and 597 yards to Kansas and 30 points and 465 yards to Iowa State in their two toughest Big 12 games thus far.  They are allowing 463 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their four conference games this season, and this Baylor offense will be the best outfit they have seen yet.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both elite offenses will have their way with these two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -2.5

This looks like the best spot I've seen for any college football team all season, which is why it has earned the coveted 25* GOTY label.  Iowa State is off two consecutive losses and off a bye week, so no question they will be pissed off and prepared to beat BYU.  They will also be a lot healthier as they get several key pieces back from injury that missed their losses to Colorado and Cincinnati, both on the road.

Now the Cyclones are back home where they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents 36.7 to 11.3 on average.  They beat Iowa at home and crushed Arizona by 25 at home.  That's the same Arizona team that BYU should have lost to a couple weeks ago, needing a score in the final seconds to force OT where they eventually won.

BYU is the most fraudulent team in the country.  The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS record would indicate.  They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT.  This is where their luck runs out.

BYU is the most tired team in the country.  The Cougars will be playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They are coming off two straight wars, winning at Arizona in OT two weeks ago and then beating Utah 24-21 at home last week.  If they could beat one team in the country, it would be Utah, so they are 'fat and happy' off their win against their biggest rivals.  This is where they come crashing down.

BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers.  The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards.  It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten.

The biggest weakness of the Cyclones is their pass defense, but that won't come into play here because BYU's biggest weakness is its pass offense.  The Cougars rank 96th in pass offense at 203.9 yards per game.  BYU QB Bear Bachmeir is a better runner than a thrower, so you can bet the Cyclones have game planned the last two weeks to stop him on the ground.

Iowa State is elite offensively with great balance averaging 163 rushing and 242 passing yards per game.  Rocco Becht is one of the best QB's in the Big 12 accounting for 16 touchdowns thus far.  This will be the best offense that BYU has faced all season outside perhaps Utah, which they allowed 470 yards to.  

This is where BYU's unbeaten season comes to an end.  Undefeated teams that are 7-0 or better when listed as a road underdog against an unranked team like Iowa State are 6-24 SU & 9-21 ATS in their last 30 tries.  The Cyclones are favored for good reason.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +9.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes struggle to get margin against anyone right now with another terrible offense this season.  Asking this offense to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much, so we'll take the value with the Minnesota Golden Gophers as 9.5-point road roads in this huge rivalry this week.

PJ Fleck always has the Golden Gophers improving as the season goes on.  They are coming off consecutive home victories over Purdue by 7 and Nebraska by 18.  That performance against Nebraska was their best of the season as they outgained the Huskers 339 to 213, or by 226 total yards.  They finally got their ground game going with 186 rushing yards, and they were efficient in the passing game completing 16-of-20 (80%) of their attempts.  They also sacked Dylan Raiola 9 times!

Iowa is overvalued after beating Wisconsin 37-0 on the road and Penn State 25-24 at home.  Those two efforts took a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank in their 3rd consecutive massive game here against a rival.  This Iowa passing game is averaging just 131.4 yards per game and 5.5 per attempt and they won't be able to capitalize on Minnesota's pass defense.

I love the matchup for the Gophers, who are great against the run allowing just 98.9 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry on the season.  They should be able to shut down this Iowa rushing attack, and I just see this game going down to the wire.

Minnesota has actually played Iowa tougher on the road in recent years than they have at home.  Indeed, the Gophers haven't lost by more than 7 points in any of their last five trips to Iowa City.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -10.5

After taking Marshall to the Sun Belt Championship last season, Charlie Huff brought a ton of players with him and is trying to do the same thing at Southern Miss.  So far so good as the Eagles are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS this season with their only losses coming to LA Tech on the road and Mississippi State at home.

The Eagles have been putting up impressive numbers this season putting up 30.7 points per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense, while allowing 25.1 points per game and 5.2 per play on defense.  Former Marshall QB Braylon Braxton is one of the best in the conference, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,710 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 195 yards and a score.

Louisiana-Monroe has been dreadful despite facing a very soft schedule.  The last three games were terrible as the Warhawks lost 42-7 at Northwestern, 23-8 at Coastal Carolina and 37-14 at home to Troy.  They will suffer a 4th consecutive blowout here this weekend.

ULM is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Warhawks will be playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They will be doing so without QB Aidan Armenta (910 yards, 8 TD), WR Jacob Godfrey (12 receptions, 169 yards, 2 TD) and without a kicker.  They also have leading rusher Bralon McReynolds (445 yards, 6.2/carry, 2 TD) listed as questionable, while Southern Miss is fully healthy.

ULM has no passing game, so stopping the run will be key, making this a great matchup for Southern Miss.  The Eagles are only allowing 3.8 yards per carry this season, holding opponents 0.9 yards per carry below their season averages.  I also love the fact that the Eagles have a bye on deck next week so they will be fully focused for this one.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Missouri/Vanderbilt ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 52.5

Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  The Commodores play slow, and while they do so efficiently on offense, possessions are limited in their games.  And with the caliber of these two SEC defenses, this total of 52.5 is too high Saturday.

Vanderbilt only allows 20.0 points per game, 315 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Missouri has been even better defensively, allowing 16.7 points per game, 242.9 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  Neither offense will get anything easy in this one.

I actually think these are two of the best defenses these offenses will have faced all season.  Missouri and its opponents haven't combined for more than 51 points in any of its last four games.  Vanderbilt has played much more lower-scoring games in SEC play combining for 38 with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 55 with LSU, which was pretty fluky last week as both offenses just kept capitalizing on all of their opportunities.  There will be more stops in this one.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between Vanderbilt and Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.