|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||42 h 2 m||Show|
25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch. I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief. I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons.
The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable. Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks. He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career. The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5. They are complete frauds.
The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks. They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs. That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game. And they came up just inches short. It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that.
The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs. That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries. They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive. They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards. And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards.
Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense. They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson. And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back.
A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too. They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels. And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street. They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended.
It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers. They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season. And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line.
The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing. And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers. I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around.
The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints -7.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||38 h 27 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5
The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl. Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less. I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week.
The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more. They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers.
Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career. This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch. They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company.
I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense. It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season. He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks. Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles.
A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%. And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self. Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable.
The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24. It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.
Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005. The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Saints Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-05-20||Richmond v. Rhode Island -2||69-61||Loss||-107||2 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island -2
The Rhode Island Rams are coming off a bad upset road loss to Brown as 7.5-point favorites. It was by far their worse performance of the season. Their other three losses came to LSU, West Virginia and Maryland all on the road.
Now the Rams are back home and highly motivated for a victory. This is a veteran Rams team that I’ve been backing a lot because they returned all five starters. And Rhode Island is 6-0 at home this season.
Richmond is 11-3, and while that record looks nice, it has come against the 219th-ranked schedule in the country. Rhode Island has played the 72nd-toughest schedule, a difference of nearly 150 spots in strength of schedule. I believe playing the tougher schedule will benefit the Rams heading into conference play today.
Rhode Island is 8-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive overs over the last three seasons. The Spiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off an ATS loss. Rhode Island has won its last two meetings with Richmond by 18 points at home and by 11 points on the road. Roll with Rhode Island Sunday.
|01-04-20||Titans +5 v. Patriots||20-13||Win||100||22 h 47 m||Show|
15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5
It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past. They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line. That never used to happen. And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami.
It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for. The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over. Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt.
Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch. The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven. This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it.
New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall. And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week. I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball.
Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year. The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games. The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival. The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins. I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week. There’s value here on the road underdog. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-04-20||Cincinnati v. Tulane +8||71-76||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +8
Ron Hunter is quickly turning around this Tulane program just as he did at Georgia State and IUPUI before. It’s a Green Wave team that got some great transfers and is one of the most improved teams in the country under Hunter.
Tulane is 8-5 this season and highly motivated for a win off three straight losses by 1 to Akron, by 4 to Towson and by 11 to Memphis. If they lose today to Cincinnati, it will certainly go down to the wire.
Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin and has struggled this season to an 8-5 start. They lost to Iowa, Colgate, Xavier, Bowling Green and Ohio State. They also nearly lost to Illinois State (won by 1), Valpo (won by 4) and UNLV (won by 7). It’s not a team that can be trusted to go on the road and win by 8-plus points against a quality opponent in Tulane here.
Cincinnati only has two days to get ready for Tulane after last playing on January 1st, while Tulane has four days to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on December 30th.
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons. Tulane is 11-2 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last two years. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS win. Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite. Roll with Tulane Saturday.
|01-04-20||West Virginia +10.5 v. Kansas||53-60||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +10.5
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kansas Jayhawks, who have covered six of their last seven games coming in. Now they are laying double-digits to a West Virginia team that can muck it up and keep this game close with their style of play.
West Virginia is one of the most improved teams in the country. The Mountaineers are 11-1 this season with their only loss coming by two points 68-70 at St. John’s. They have impressive wins over Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Pitt and Ohio State this season. Take West Virginia Saturday.
|01-04-20||Grizzlies +10.5 v. Clippers||140-114||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies +10.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have some great young talent and it’s starting to show now that they are healthy. The Grizzlies are 7-6 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They will give the Clippers a run for their money today.
Helping out the Grizzlies is the fact that the Clippers are not healthy. They are down two starters today in Paul George and Patrick Beverly. They will miss George’s scoring as he has picked up right where he left off last season in OKC. And Beverly is a pest defensively that will be missed guarding Rookie of the Year favorite JA Morant.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Clippers are 3-12 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. Memphis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games off a win. Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.
|01-04-20||Villanova v. Marquette||Top||60-71||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette PK
I like backing Marquette at home today where they just have to win this game to cover against Villanova. The Golden Eagles are 7-0 at home this season and winning by 22.1 points per game.
Villanova is just 1-5 ATS in all games played away from home this year. In their two true road games, they failed to cover as 15-point favorites at St. Joe’s and lost 51-76 at Ohio State.
Marquette is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs. The Wildcats are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Take Marquette Saturday.
|01-04-20||Iowa v. Penn State -2.5||86-89||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5
Penn State has the best team they’ve had in years. They are off to an 11-2 start this season with one of their losses coming on the road at Ohio State. They other was a 2-point loss to Ole Miss on a neutral after they blew a 20-plus point lead.
The wins have been impressive. The Nittany Lions have beaten Maryland, Alabama, Wake Forest and Yale at home as well as a a road win at Georgetown and a neutral win over Syracuse. They’ve played a brutal schedule and have proven themselves against it.
Now they take on Iowa in what is technically a neutral site game but the Nittany Lions will have home-court advantage due to being played in Philadelphia. It’s an Iowa team that has also been impressive, but they have lost when they have stepped up in class. They lost by 15 at home to DePaul, by 10 at San Diego State and by 12 at Michigan.
Iowa is 1-8 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Penn State is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years. The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. The Nittany Loins are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|01-04-20||Providence v. DePaul -2.5||66-65||Loss||-109||4 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on DePaul -2.5
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the DePaul Blue Demons. They got off to a hot start this season but have cooled off since, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They are coming off a loss to Seton Hall, which is one of the best teams in the country.
Now the Blue Demons are back home against a Providence team they should handle. Providence is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in all games played away from home this year. That includes neutral site losses to Long Beach State, College of Charleston and Florida as well as road losses to Northwestern and Rhode Island. They were favored in four of those five losses and lost by 32 to Florida.
The Friars are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games off an ATS win. Providence is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games. DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite. The Blue Demons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bet DePaul Saturday.
|01-04-20||Kansas State v. Oklahoma -7||61-66||Loss||-108||3 h 11 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -7
The Oklahoma Sooners get Kristian Doolittle back from suspension today for their Big 12 opener against Kansas State. I expect them to roll at home today, where they are 5-0 on the season.
Kansas State is way down from last year with all they lost. They are just 7-5 SU & 4-8 ATS in all games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games. It will be just their second true road game of the season. They lost on a neutral to Pitt, Bradley, Mississippi State and Saint Louis, four teams that aren’t as good as Oklahoma.
The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kansas State is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Oklahoma Saturday.
|01-04-20||Tulane -7 v. Southern Miss||30-13||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* Tulane/Southern Miss Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane -7
I believe the Tulane Green Wave will be highly motivated for a victory in the Lending Tree Bowl. They lost three straight and five of their final six to fall to 6-6 on the season. They want to end the season with a winning record, and I love betting on 6-6 teams in bowl season because of that reason.
Keep in mind that Tulane’s losses down the stretch came against a brutal schedule. They suffered road losses to Memphis, Navy, Temple and SMU as well as a 3-point home loss to UCF. That’s four 10-win teams and a Temple team that was very tough to beat at home all season.
With that schedule, it’s no surprised that Tulane played the tougher slate of these tewo teams. Their schedule ranked 38 spots harder than Southern Miss. It’s a Golden Eagles team that had a chance to play in the C-USA title game late in the season. But they lost their final two games in blowout fashion. They lost by 18 at home to Western Kentucky as 3-point favorites. They also lost by 17 at Florida Atlantic as 9-point dogs.
Southern Miss only beat one bowl team all season, and that was a bad UAB team that lost their starting QB to injury early in the game. The other six wins came against Alcorn State, Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice and UTSA. Basically every time they stepped up in class they lost as the five losses all came by 15 points or more.
Tulane had some impressive stats for a 6-6 team. The Green Wave averaged 33.3 points and 455.2 yards per game while giving up 27.4 points and 378.5 yards per game. They outgained their opposition by 76.7 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider how difficult their schedule was.
Willie Fritz is 27-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached. The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss. The Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. C-USA opponents. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Tulane Saturday.
|01-03-20||Pelicans +10.5 v. Lakers||Top||113-123||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have three straight wins over three of the better teams in the NBA in the Pacers, Rockets and Nuggets.
Now the Pelicans want to avenge their 110-114 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on November 27th in their first and only meeting this season. There are a lot of former Lakers on this Pelicans team, so they will always be motivated to face their former team, especially this season.
The Lakers are 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have just one win by more than 10 points during this stretch, and that was a 13-point win. They will have a hard time covering this big number tonight against a Pelicans team that is playing very well.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New Orleans) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Lakers are 7-21 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Bet the Pelicans Friday.
|01-03-20||Wisconsin v. Ohio State -7||61-57||Loss||-108||6 h 10 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -7
The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a loss to West Virginia. Now they return home highly motivated for a win against the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten play Friday night. Look for them to make easy work of the Badgers.
The Buckeyes are legitimately one of the best teams in the country. They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their nine home games this season while outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game. They beat Penn State by 32 in their lone conference home game.
Wisconsin is starting to get some respect for its three-game winning streak. But the Badgers are just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year. They are scoring just 58.7 points per game on the highway. They lost to New Mexico, Richmond and St. Mary’s on a neutral and lost by 15 at NC State and by 7 at Rutgers.
Ohio State is 8-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season. The Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take Ohio State Friday.
|01-03-20||Ohio -9 v. Nevada||30-21||Push||0||3 h 41 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Nevada Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -9
The Ohio Bobcats have been dominant in their last two bowl games. They have outscored UAB and San Diego State a combined 68-6 the past two seasons. And they just blasted Bowling Green by 42 and Akron by 49 in their final two games to close out the regular season.
It’s the final game for Ohio senior QB Nathan Roarke, so you know he is going to want to put on a big performance. He has another great season with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Roarke also rushed for 780 yards and 12 scored to lead this explosive Ohio offense.
Nevada has to be one of the most fraudulent 7-5 teams I’ve ever season. They were outscored by nearly 11 points per game this season and were also outgunned by 1.2 yards per play. They lost by 71 to Oregon, by 51 to Hawaii, by 26 to Utah State and by 28 to Wyoming. And now they have four defensive starters suspended for this bowl game. I think they’ll be in over their heads here in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Ohio) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a bad defense that allows 390 to 440 yards per game after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Bobcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. Roll with Ohio Friday.
|01-02-20||Oregon v. Colorado +1.5||Top||65-74||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Colorado ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado +1.5
The Colorado Buffaloes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Pac-12 and in all of college basketball for that matter. They returned all five starters this year are are off to an 11-2 start, including a 6-1 record at home. They will be highly motivated for a win tonight with 4th-ranked Oregon coming to town.
The Oregon Ducks are certainly one of the better teams in the country as well at 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS on the season. I just think this is a great spot to fade them, especially when you consider Colorado is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Oregon. They beat Oregon 73-51 as nearly identical 1-point home dogs last season.
Colorado is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games lined +3 to PK. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Colorado is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Colorado Thursday.
|01-02-20||Thunder v. Spurs -2||Top||109-103||Loss||-105||9 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -2
The San Antonio Spurs would actually be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They are playing well over the last month in going 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall dating back to December 3rd. It’s a rested team that has had a lot of time off over the past month.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are also playing well in going 7-1 in their last eight games overall. But now they are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point road dogs. And it’s definitely a potential letdown spot off three straight narrow wins over the Hornets, Raptors and Mavericks by a combined 8 points.
The Spurs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Thunder. San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|01-02-20||Dayton v. La Salle +11||84-58||Loss||-110||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11
The No. 20 Dayton Flyers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers for their Top 25 ranking. They have opened 11-2 but have now failed to cover three of their last four. I think it’s time to continue ’selling high’ on the Flyers tonight.
They should not be laying double-digits on the road against a solid La Salle team in this conference rivalry. It’s a La Salle team that has been one of the most underrated in the country and continues to fly under the radar. The Explorers are 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season.
La Salle only lost by 5 to Temple as 6-point dogs and by 11 on the road to Villanova as 18-point dogs to show that they can play with good teams. They will prove it again tonight as they give Dayton a run for its money at home. And they have the rest and preparation advantage. The Explorers come in on four days’ rest, while the Flyers come in on only two days’ rest.
La Salle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 60 points or less in three straight games coming in. Dayton is 9-22 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. La Salle is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. The Explorers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Take La Salle Thursday.
|01-02-20||Raptors v. Heat -5||76-84||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Heat NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Miami -5
The Miami Heat had won five straight including wins over Philadelphia (twice), Indiana and Utah. Then they laid an egg on Monday and lost outright as a 14-point favorite against Washington’s G-League team.
It’s safe to say the Heat are going to come back highly motivated for a win at home tonight over the Toronto Raptors after getting that wake-up call. And they will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest. The Heat are 15-1 at home this season and winning by nearly 12 points per game.
The Raptors are in a much tougher spot here. They will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and are already playing short-handed. The Raptors remain without their best player in Pacal Siakam, starter Marc Gasol and key reserve Norman Powell. I don’t think they will be able to hang with Miami tonight without these three.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that was beaten by 24 or more points against the spread in their last three are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 11-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. They are winning by 15.0 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Heat Thursday.
|01-02-20||Tennessee -2 v. Indiana||Top||23-22||Loss||-110||57 h 25 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2
The Tennessee Vols are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016. They were a juggernaut to close out the season going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only loss was a road loss to Alabama as a 34.5-point dog and they actually played the Crimson Tide tough for a half.
Tennessee pulled four outright upsets during this 6-1 stretch and the team is really buying into head coach Jeremy Pruitt. The Vols beat four bowl eligible teams this year and played a much tougher schedule than Indiana did. And they will be playing in SEC country in Jacksonville, so they should have a home-field advantage.
Indiana had a great year as well with an 8-4 season. But the Hoosiers’ eight wins all came against non-bowl teams. They went 0-4 against the bowl teams they did play and weren’t really that competitive in them losing those four games by a combined 82 points, or by an average of 20.5 points per game.
Tennessee is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Indiana is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Vols are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Tennessee Thursday.
|01-02-20||Rhode Island -7.5 v. Brown||75-85||Loss||-110||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -7.5
The Rhode Island Rams are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They returned all five starters this season and are off to an 8-3 start. Their only three losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia & LSU. They beat Alabama by 14 and Providence by 14 as well.
Rhode Island should handle this Brown team that is just 5-6 on the season. All six losses for Brown have come by 11 points or more. They lost by 21 to Sacred Heart, by 12 to UMass-Lowell, by 20 to Navy, by 16 to Stony Brook, by 11 to St. John’s and by 25 to Duke. Those results alone show they can’t hang with Rhode Island. But their five wins have come against Bryant (by 2), Canisius (by 7), Quinnipiac (by 2), New Jersey Tech and Merrimack.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Brown) - after scoring 50 points or less against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in two straight games are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1997.
The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games off an ATS win. Roll with Rhode Island Thursday.
|01-02-20||Boston College +7.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||6-38||Loss||-110||53 h 25 m||Show|
20* Boston College/Cincinnati Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on Boston College +7.5
The Boston College Eagles clearly want to be playing in a bowl game after missing out on a bowl last year. They showed that in the season finale as they went into Pitt and came away with an upset road win as 7.5-point underdogs to improved to 6-6 on the season.
Now the Eagles fit into one of my favorite systems. It’s betting on 6-6 teams in bowl games who are off a SU win as an underdog. Those teams have gone 70% ATS in bowl games since 2000. Also, 6-6 teams playing an opponent with 9 or more wins are 22-9 ATS since 2000. Both systems make sense because almost always that 6-6 team is the more motivated team.
Cincinnati had higher hopes than playing in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats were neck-and-neck with Memphis for a New Year’s 6 Bowl. But they lost to Memphis twice, once in the regular season finale and again in the AAC Championship Game. They had a chance to win both those games in the 4th quarter but came up short. I really question their motivation now having to play a 6-6 Boston College team that they cannot be too excited for.
I think this line has been adjusted too much for Boston College having an interim head coach in Rich Gunnell and also for RB AJ Dillon sitting out. Backup RB David Bailey rushed for 811 yards and average 5.8 yards per carry this season. Dillon only averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so Bailey was actually the more explosive back.
Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Take Boston College Thursday.
|01-01-20||Wisconsin v. Oregon +3||Top||27-28||Win||100||32 h 34 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon +3
Oregon was really close to being 12-0 this season. They had last-second losses to both Arizona State and Auburn on the road. They are probably the fourth-best team in the country and would have made the four-team playoff if they would have won either of those games.
I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Oregon showed it could handle the physicality of both Auburn and Utah, two teams that are similar to this physical Wisconsin team. They thumped Utah 37-15 in the Pac-12 Championship and dominated at the line of scrimmage. RB CJ Verdell rushed for 208 yards on the Utes. QB Justin Herbert will be the best player on the field and wants to improve his draft stock. And Oregon will also have the speed advantage.
Wisconsin is obviously happy to be playing the Rose Bowl, but they have to feel a little deflated from not winning a Big Ten Championship. They had Ohio State down 21-7 at half, but gave up 27 unanswered points and lost 21-34. And don’t forget they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Wisconsin) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against an opponent that outgained its last opponents by 125 or more yards are 74-32 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Oregon is 48-24 ATS in its last 72 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Ducks are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games playing with two or more weeks of rest. Oregon is 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. Bet Oregon Wednesday.
|01-01-20||Fresno State +13 v. San Diego State||52-61||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +13
The San Diego State Aztecs head into the new year overvalued due to their 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS records. Now they’re laying 13 points here to Fresno State, which is simply too much.
Fresno State heads into 2020 undervalued at 4-9 SU & 4-6 ATS. But the Bulldogs have been a lot more competitive than their record would indicate. Indeed, seven of their nine losses came by 7 points or less. The only exceptions were a 10-point loss to St. Mary’s on a neutral and a 14-point loss at Oregon.
Fresno State hasn’t lost by more than 12 points in any of its last 12 meetings with San Diego State. That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 13-point spread. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Roll with Fresno State Wednesday.
|01-01-20||Minnesota v. Auburn -7||31-24||Loss||-100||27 h 24 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Auburn Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -7
The Auburn Tigers have a huge talent edge over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in this one. And most of their future NFL players are expected to play in the Outback Bowl, including two outstanding defensive linemen in Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson. It appears Auburn is ‘all in’ for this game.
The Tigers had a great 9-3 season against the nation’s 2nd-toughest schedule. They had to play Oregon out of conference and beat them. They beat Alabama and Texas A&M. And their three losses came to LSU, Florida and Georgia all on the road and all against 10-win teams.
To compare, Minnesota played the 61st-ranked schedule in the country. That’s a 60-spot difference compared to Auburn in strength of schedule. They played in the weak Big Ten West division and played one of the easiest non-conference schedules you will ever see against South Dakota State, Fresno and Georgia Southern. And the Golden Gophers aren’t as good as their 10-2 record as they won five games by 7 points or less.
Minnesota’s three wins against bowl teams came against Penn State by 5, Georgia Southern by 3 and Illinois. And this will be the toughest team that Minnesota will have faced all season. The other was Wisconsin, and they were manhandled at home by the Badgers and lost by 21 points. They will struggle with Auburn’s physicality at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as well.
Auburn boasts an elite defense that gives up 18.6 points, 323.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. Teams didn’t have much success throwing against them, and Minnesota is going to need to be able to throw it. Auburn held teams to 5.9 yards per attempt, 1.8 yards per attempt than they normally average. They also held teams to 3.4 yards per carry, which is 1.7 yards per carry less than they normally average.
Auburn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Gus Malzahn is 18-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of Auburn. I believe the Golden Gophers will be in over their heads here. Take Auburn Wednesday.
|12-31-19||Texas +7 v. Utah||Top||38-10||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Texas/Utah Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on Texas +7
I question Utah’s motivation playing in the Alamo Bowl. The Utes would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. Instead, they got embarrassed 15-37. It’s not a great consolation prize for them to be playing in the Alamo Bowl now.
Texas is looking to build something going into next year. And we saw the Longhorns win outright as 13.5-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl last year. Georgia wasn’t motivated for that game and was in a similar position to the one Utah is in this year. Georgia missed out on the 4-team playoff with their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Tom Herman thrives in the role of the underdog. He is 15-5 ATS as a dog as a head coach. He’s also 3-0 in bowl games with three outright wins as an underdog. He beat Georgia last year and also beat Missouri 33-16 as 3-point dogs in 2017. He also beat Florida State 38-24 as 7-point dogs when at Houston in 2015 in the Peach Bowl.
Sam Ehlinger is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has completed 65.1% of his passes with a 29-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season. He has rushed for 590 yards and six scores as well.
The Pac-12 is just 5-19-1 ATS in bowl games the last four seasons. Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games overall. Bet Texas Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Georgetown v. Providence +1.5||60-76||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +1.5
The Georgetown Hoyas are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. It’s time to ‘sell high’ on them and fade them here as road favorites at Providence.
The Providence Friars got off to a slow start this season, but they rebounded with a 70-48 home win over Texas as 1-point favorites last time out. And now they’ve had nine days to get ready for Georgetown after last playing on December 21st. Meanwhile, Georgetown only has two days to get ready for Providence after facing American on December 28th.
Providence wants revenge on Georgetown after losing both meetings to them last year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Second-leading scorer Mac McClung (15.5 PPG) is questionable to play for the Hoyas tonight.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Providence) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1997. Take Providence Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Georgia State v. Wyoming -7||17-38||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* Georgia State/Wyoming Arizona Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wyoming -7
The Wyoming Cowboys were bowl eligible last year, but they were left out of a bowl game. There’s no question they are happy to be going bowling this year and will show up for this Arizona bowl in their part of the country.
Wyoming played a much tougher schedule than Georgia State did. And the Cowboys have the much better defense in this matchup. Wyoming allowed just 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. Georgia State gave up 36.1 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this year.
Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Wyoming was at least competitive in losing three of its last four. All four losses came on the road to Boise State, Utah State and Air Force, and they were in every one of those games in the 4th quarter. Georgia State was not competitive in losing three of its last four. They lost by 14 to Louisiana-Monroe, by 29 to Appalachian State and by 28 to Georgia Southern.
There’s one hidden factor here that is getting overlooked. Georgia State QB Dan Ellington was a stud through the first nine games of the season before tearing his ACL. He rushed for 70 yards per game in the first nine games and was a great dual-threat. But since playing the last three games on a torn ACL, Ellington has rushed for a total of -5 yards in his last three games. I don’t think his injury is being factored into this line enough.
Wyoming is 14-4 ATS when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Sun Belt opponents. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. The Panthers are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Wyoming Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Kansas State v. Navy -2.5||17-20||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* K-State/Navy Liberty Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Navy -2.5
This game fits into one of my favorite bowl systems. Teams that won three or fewer games last year are 18-3 ATS the last four years in bowl games. Navy lost 10 games last year but won 10 games this year. Their only two losses came to a pair of 11-win teams in Memphis & Notre Dame on the road. Two other teams that fit into this system this year were Kent State winning outright as 7-point dogs and North Carolina crushing Temple.
I just think Navy is the better team, and this is a better matchup for them. The Midshipmen led the country in rushing at 360.2 yards per game. Kansas State ranks 62nd against the run, giving up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. That’s pretty poor when you consider they don’t face many good rushing attacks in the Big 12.
Navy QB Malcolm Perry is an absolute stud. He is 4th in the country in rushing with 1,804 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also threw for over 1,000 yards this season, so the Midshipmen are a threat in the passing game more than most years with Perry under center.
Military teams have hit about 70% ATS over the last 20 years in bowl games. They are so difficult to prepare for because teams just can’t simulate what they do. They don’t have the personnel to simulate it. And Navy is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games.
Navy is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse this season. The Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season. Navy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall. Kansas State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. Roll with Navy Tuesday.
|12-31-19||76ers v. Pacers +2||97-115||Win||100||4 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2
The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. They are 14-3 at home this season. And they come into this game highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Miami and New Orleans. Plus, they are fresh and ready to go on two days’ rest and will get Malcolm Brogdon back from injury tonight.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been awful on the road this season. They are just 7-10 in road games. They did beat the Pacers at home 119-116 in their lone meeting this season, but now it’s revenge time for Indiana at home this time around.
Plays against road teams (Philadelphia) - off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-18 (75%) ATS since 1996. The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.
|12-30-19||Seton Hall v. DePaul -1||74-66||Loss||-110||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/DePaul FS1 ANNIHILATOR on DePaul -1
The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are off to a 12-1 start and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as only 1-point home favorites here against the Seton Hall Pirates.
DePaul already has impressive road wins over the likes of Iowa as 9.5-point dogs, Boston College as PK and Minnesota as 4-point dogs. They also beat Texas Tech at home with their only loss coming to a solid Buffalo team.
Seton Hall has played just three true road games this season and lost two of them to Rutgers and Iowa State. And the Pirates could be without their best player again tonight in Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), who is questionable with a concussion. They’ll be without 3rd-leading scorer Sando Mamukelashvilli (10.9 PPG) as well.
Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. DePaul is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Seton Hall. They won both meetings outright as underdogs last year. Roll with DePaul Monday.
|12-30-19||Virginia v. Florida -14||Top||28-36||Loss||-110||87 h 40 m||Show|
20* Virginia/Florida Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida -14
Virginia was just blasted by Clemson 62-17 in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers did not deserve a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but they have been given one due to playing in the ACC title game. Now they’ll get blasted again by another superior team in Florida in the Orange Bowl.
Dan Mullen is one of my favorite coaches in college football. What he has done in just two seasons at Florida has been mighty impressive. Remember, the Gators were just 4-7 before he arrived here last year. He promptly guided the Gators to a 10-3 season and a 41-15 win over Michigan in their bowl game, improves Mullen to 6-2 all-time in bowls.
Mullen has the Gators looking at 11 wins this season as they come in at 10-2 with their only losses coming to Georgia and LSU. They were competitive in both losses, leading LSU 28-21 before losing 28-42 and only losing to Georgia by 7. And both of those games were on the road.
Florida’s offense is one of the most improved units in the country. The Gators put up 56 points against Vanderbilt and another 40 against Florida State in two of their final three games this year. Now they face a Virginia defense that has been absolutely gashed n the 2nd half of the season.
The Cavaliers have allowed at least 27 points in each of their final six games this year. They have allowed an average of 34.3 points per game in those six contests. I know if Florida gets to 34-plus in this game, chances are they will cover this 14-point spread. That’s because they have an elite defense that gives up just 14.4 points per game and they will shut down Virginia’s offense.
Mullen is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of Florida. Bronco Mendenhall is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Virginia. The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games. Finally, the Gators will have a big home-field advantage with this game being played in Miami. Bet Florida Monday.
|12-30-19||Heat -8.5 v. Wizards||105-123||Loss||-107||8 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -8.5
The Miami Heat have won five straight to improve to 24-8 on the season. They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. Now they should make easy work of the Washington Wizards on the road tonight.
The Wizards stand little to no chance of even being competitive tonight with all of their injuries. They are without Rui Hachimura, Mo Wagner, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant and they could be without Bradley Beal, who is questionable.
The Heat are 12-2 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons. Miami is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Take the Heat Monday.
|12-29-19||49ers -2.5 v. Seahawks||Top||26-21||Win||100||168 h 53 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -2.5
The Seattle Seahawks are frauds. I’ve been saying it all season. I faded them last week with an easy outright win on the Cardinals +9.5, and I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons. They are the most fortunate 11-4 team I’ve ever seen.
Indeed, the Seahawks are 11-4 despite having just a +12 point differential on the season. They have gone 10-1 in one-score games this year. People say it’s just Russell Wilson being clutch, but Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games prior to 2019.
The 49ers are 12-3 and every bit as good as their record. They have a +164 point differential on the season, which is 152 points better than the Seahawks. All three of their losses came on the final play of the game.
Yes, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in their first meeting, but it comes with an asterisk. The 49ers were without their most important player in George Kittle, who is worth more to the spread than any other non-QB in the NFL. And Emmanuel Sanders got hurt early in that game. Jimmy G didn’t have any weapons left. And the Seahawks still needed a FG in overtime to beat the 49ers. Now it’s revenge time for San Francisco.
The 49ers are the much healthier team in the rematch. The Seahawks have injury problems everywhere. They are missing a handful of guys on defense, they could be without two starting offensive linemen, and will for sure be without LT Duane Brown. They just recently lost WR Josh Gordon to suspension, taking away one of Wilson’s top targets.
The Seahawks needed a win last week against the Cardinals to keep alive a chance at a first-round bye. But they lost 13-27 at home as 9.5-point favorites. They were outgained by 188 yards by the Cardinals and managed just 224 total yards themselves. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and it showed last week, especially since the Cardinals kept scoring even after Kyler Murray went down with injury.
The Seahawks rank 26th in total defense giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The 49ers rank 2nd in total defense, giving up 277.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. They are allowing over 100 yards less per game than the Seahawks, and that’s the difference in this game. The 49ers also have the better offensive numbers this year, scoring 30.2 points per game and gaining 379.9 yards per game while ranking 2nd in scoring and 6th in total offense.
The 49ers also get an extra day of rest after beating the Rams on Saturday. The Seahawks don’t have the same home-field advantage they used to. They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season with losses to the Ravens, Saints and Cardinals outright. Their four home wins came by 7, 6, 1 and 1 point and only one of those was against a playoff team in the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|12-29-19||Rockets v. Pelicans +4||112-127||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +4
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with three upset wins and a 120-98 blowout of Indiana yesterday. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that blowout allowed them to rest their starters late.
The Houston Rockets will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They beat the Nets 108-98 at home last night. Now they have to travel, while the Pelicans get to stay at home. That’s a huge advantage.
The Rockets will sit Russell Westbrook today and they could be without Clint Cappela, who is questionable. The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest. Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.
|12-29-19||Titans +1 v. Texans||Top||35-14||Win||100||166 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans +1
The Tennessee Titans need a win and they’re in the playoffs. We know they will be max motivated here. The same cannot be said for the Houston Texans, which is why I have made this my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2019 season.
The Texans have nothing to play for. Yes, they could get the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers and they win this game. But the Chiefs are 9-point home favorites against the Chargers. Kansas City plays at 1:00 EST, while Houston plays at 4:25 EST. So the Texans will know their fate before they kick off, and that fate is going to be that they are locked into the No. 4 seed.
After coming out Monday and saying he would play his starters, head coach Bill O’Brien has recanted as I expected, which is why I locked this line in early. I expected him to rest his starters, and that’s precisely what he is going to do. That’s why this line has moved roughly 7 points toward the Titans since the opening line.
It looks like all the best players for the Texans will sit. That includes QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins, T Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, WR Will Fuller, DE J.J. Watt and there will likely be more. The product the Texans put on the field won’t be good at all, and I expect the Titans to win this game easily by a TD or more and likely by double-digits.
Tennessee actually sat some players last week, including RB Derrick Henry, against the Saints last week. That game actually didn’t matter to them. They knew that this Week 17 game was going to be their only chance of making the playoffs because it would give them the tiebreaker with the Steelers. They already have the tiebreaker over the Raiders.
The Titans still nearly beat the Saints and probably should have last week if not for a fumble when they were going in to take the lead in the closing minutes. But now getting Henry back is huge for this team. The Titans have been a juggernaut running the football down the stretch. They have rushed for 169.4 yards per game in their last seven games.
Ryan Tannehill has played at an MVP level since taking over for Marcus Mariota. He is completing 70.7% of his passes for 2,544 yards with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt. The Titans will be able to name their number against this Texans defense.
Houston really should be 0-3 in their last three games overall. They were beaten by 14 by the Broncos, won by 3 over the Titans and won by 3 over the Bucs. But they lost the stats in all three games. The Broncos hung 38 points on them, the Titans outgained them by 42 yards and the Bucs outgained them by 206 yards despite not having their top two receivers.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - off two consecutive road wins, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Titans Sunday.
Note: I'm expecting the Texans to rest their starters since they clinched the division last week. Bet this line as soon as it's available at your book. It's a 25* up to Titans -6.5, a 20* at anything worse.
|12-29-19||Colts -4 v. Jaguars||20-38||Loss||-110||45 h 3 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -4
The Indianapolis Colts sit at 7-8 on the season. They are clearly motivated to win in Week 17 to get to .500 on the season, because 8-8 sounds much better than 7-9. And they showed that last week by crushing the Carolina Panthers 38-6 at home.
Now the Colts go on the road to face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has all but quit. The Jaguars are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits. They are failing to cover the spread by an average of 14 points per game during this stretch.
The Colts beat the Jaguars 33-13 at home in their first meeting this season, and they should be able to go on the road and beat a hapless Jaguars team by more than 4 points. The Jaguars know that they are likely lose all of their coaches in the offseason and it’s just a team in turmoil right now, which explains their disastrous finish.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - after playing a home game against an opponent that is off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC South opponents. Indianapolis is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and lost their last two home games by 35 to the Chargers and by 17 to the Bucs. Take the Colts Sunday.
|12-29-19||Kansas v. Stanford +6.5||72-56||Loss||-104||3 h 54 m||Show|
15* Kansas/Stanford ABC ANNIHILATOR on Stanford +6.5
The Stanford Cardinal are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. They are 11-1 this season with their only loss coming to Butler by a single point 67-68 on a neutral.
The Cardinal have obviously been flying under the radar when you consider they are 9-3 ATS this season. And now they are catching 6.5 points to what I believe is an overrated Kansas team that does not shoot the 3 ball very well. They are loaded inside, but they don’t have many shooters.
Kansas is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games, including 2-11 ATS in road games over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs. Stanford is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games. The Cardinal are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games. Bet Stanford Sunday.
|12-29-19||Jets +4.5 v. Bills||Top||13-6||Win||100||163 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +4.5
The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17. They will be resting starters, and they should not be favored over the New York Jets as a result. They are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will face the No. 4 seed, which will likely be the Houston Texans.
The New York Jets are playing well down the stretch. They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall. They just upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10 as 3-point home underdogs last week. And they are looking to cap off a 6-2 run to finish the 2019 season and build momentum heading into next year.
The Bills will just run, run and run some more to try and get this game over with. Well, the Jets have the answer for Buffalo’s running game. Indeed, the Jets rank 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 87.9 rushing yards per game. They are also 1st in the NFL in allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.
Plays on road teams (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The underdog is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet the Jets Sunday.
Note: I expect the Bills to rest their starters with nothing to play for in Week 17. Bet this line as soon as it comes out at your book. It's a 20* up to Jets -3, a 15* at anything worse.
|12-29-19||Browns v. Bengals +3||23-33||Win||100||42 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER On Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Cincinnati Bengals locked up the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft with their loss to the Dolphins last week. A win won’t hurt them now as they are in line to draft Joe Burrow. They will be motivated to beat their division and in-state rival in the Cleveland Browns Sunday.
The Bengals showed last week that they are still trying. They erased a 16-point deficit in the final minute of that Miami game with two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions to force overtime. It definitely would have been the worst beat all-time if the Dolphins had not gone on to win in overtime.
The Browns are a dumpster fire. They lost two weeks ago as favorites at Arizona by a final of 24-38. They gave up 38 points and 445 total yards to the Cardinals. And last week they lost by 16 at home to the Ravens. They managed just 241 total yards and gave up 481 yards, getting outgained by 240 yards by the Ravens. They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Bengals in Week 17 as they were the Ravens last week.
The Bengals want revenge from a 19-27 loss at Cleveland earlier this month. Cincinnati really deserved to win that game. They outgained the Browns 451 to 333, or by 118 total yards. But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, either kicking FG’s or coming up short on 4th downs. And keep in mind Andy Dalton did not play in that game, but he is playing now and wants to show teams that he can still be a starter in this league.
Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 100-53 (65.4%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Browns are 4-15 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last three years. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|12-28-19||Magic +11.5 v. Bucks||100-111||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +11.5
Both the Magic and Bucks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. But the situation is much better for the Magic. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 5th game in 8 days.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after sitting out last night against the Hawks. Eric Bledsoe remains out for the Bucks. This line indicates Giannis will play, but it would be a huge bonus if he didn’t.
The Magic will be motivated for revenge after losing twice already to the Bucks this season. They only lost 101-110 at Milwaukee on December 9th a few weeks ago as 13-point dogs. And I think they can stay within single-digits in their 3rd meeting as well.
The Magic are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games. Orlando is 4-0-2 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest. The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. Roll with the Magic Saturday.
|12-28-19||Clemson -2 v. Ohio State||29-23||Win||100||39 h 9 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Ohio State Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson -2
I realize this is a very evenly-matched games when you look at the numbers. Both Clemson and LSU are outscoring opponents by 36 points per game on the season. They have nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers as well. But there are several key advantages for Clemson that makes me believe they’ll win this game by a field goal or more over Ohio State.
First and foremost, the Tigers have a huge coaching edge. Dabo Swinney has proven himself time and time again in these big games, going toe-to-toe with Nick Saban and Alabama and taking him down twice in the national title game in recent years. He beat Urban Meyer and Ohio State the last time he faced them in the playoff, 31-0 back in 2016. Ryan Day did a tremendous job at Ohio State this season, but he is overmatched here against Swinney.
Secondly, Clemson has the advantage at quarterback. Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start this season, but then showed why he was the Heisman favorite coming into the year by dominating down the stretch. Indeed, Lawrence had a 20-to-0 TD/INT ratio over his final six games of the season. Justin Fields struggled a bit against Penn State and Wisconsin in his final two games of the season with a knee injury. He says he is only 80-85% healthy coming into this Fiesta Bowl. He hasn’t been here before, while Lawrence led Clemson to the national title last year.
Swinney is 11-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson. Clemson is 9-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game this season. Clemson is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 December games. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents. Roll with Clemson Saturday.
|12-28-19||76ers v. Heat -1||116-117||Push||0||10 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1
We are getting the Miami Heat cheap at home tonight. The Heat are 14-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Lakers by 3 points. They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.
The Philadelphia 76ers are just 7-9 on the road this season and actually getting outscored on the road. While both teams are playing a back-to-back, the situation is worse for the 76ers because they have to travel from Orlando to Miami, while the Heat get to stay at home after beating the Pacers last night.
The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Saturday games. Take the Heat Saturday.
|12-28-19||Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 217||Top||113-97||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Celtics UNDER 217
I love the UNDER in this game between the Raptors and Celtics. I love it because of the situation. These teams just played each other on Christmas Day a couple days ago, so they are very familiar with one another. And it’s their 3rd meeting already this season as well.
I have a hard time believing both teams will shoot as well as they did in that meeting. The Celtics won 118-102 for 220 combined points. The Celtics shot 50% from the field, while the Raptors shot 47.5%. The familiarity will help out the defenses in this one and lead to a lower-scoring game than that game was on Christmas Day.
Toronto is 11-2 UNDER off a loss against a division rival over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 17-6 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Raptors last seven games off an ATS loss. The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight Saturday games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games playing on zero rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-28-19||Oklahoma v. LSU -13.5||28-63||Win||100||35 h 9 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/LSU Peach Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -13.5
The LSU Tigers went 13-0 this season to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the college football playoff. They have had no problem winning by margin this season as 11 of their 13 wins have come by 14 points or more. So I have no problem laying the 13.5 points in the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma.
LSU showed no signs of slowing down late in the season. Each of their final four wins came by 21 points or more. That includes their 43-point win over Texas A&M in the regular season finale, which was one of the single-most impressive wins in all of college football. Then they blasted Georgia by 27 in the SEC Championship.
Oklahoma is far and away the worst team in the four-team playoff and probably doesn’t deserve to be here. The Sooners were fortunate in close games once again this year, going 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. I expect Oklahoma to get exposed in the four-team playoff once again this year.
A big reason Oklahoma played so many close games is because they once again have a poor defense, which gives them little to no chance of competing against elite teams like LSU. Oklahoma will be missing two of its best players on defense in DE Ronnie Perkins and S Delarrin Turner-Yell.
Perkins was suspended, and Turner-Yell was injured in bowl practices leading up to the game. Perkins is their best pass rusher, and Turner-Yell is their second-leading tackler. Both will be missed as Oklahoma tries to slow down this juggernaut of an LSU offense that puts up 48 points and 554 yards per game. Heisman winner Joe Burrow is completing 78% of his passes with a 48-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.
Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. teams that average 30 or more points per game. LSU is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games. LSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big 12 opponents. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Take LSU Saturday.
|12-28-19||Florida International +14 v. Minnesota||Top||62-89||Loss||-109||6 h 16 m||Show|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +14
Florida International is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a 9-3 SU & 6-3 ATS start this season. They returned four starters from last year and are certainly a contender to win Conference USA this year.
Florida International’s three losses this season all came by 9 points or less. And two of those were on the road against Power 5 teams. They only lost 69-77 as 16.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 77-86 as 17.5-point dogs at NC State.
Now, the Golden Panthers are catching 14 points here against a down Minnesota team that is just 6-5 on the season. The Golden Gophers are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Ohio State and Oklahoma State, and they have Purdue on deck. That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them today, and I don’t expect them to show up at all.
Florida International is 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog. Minnesota is 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win. The Golden Gophers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games. Bet Florida International Saturday.
|12-28-19||Memphis v. Penn State -7||Top||39-53||Win||100||31 h 49 m||Show|
20* Memphis/Penn State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -7
Memphis head coach Mike Norvell has bolted for Florida State. I think the Tigers will miss his guidance, leadership and offensive mind heading into this bowl game against Penn State. Offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield will coach the bowl and will be overmatched by James Franklin at Penn State.
Penn State gets back QB Sean Clifford from injury after getting hurt against Ohio State in the next-to-last game of the season. He sat out the Rutgers game, but he’s back now. And I’m backing a Penn State team that played a much tougher schedule (43rd) than Memphis (71st) this season. Their only two losses were to 10-win teams in Ohio State and Minnesota, and both losses were on the road.
Penn State will win the battle in the trenches in this one, especially on defense. Memphis hasn’t seen a defense nearly as good as the one they will face here in the Nittany Lions, who give up just 14.1 points per game this season. They will be able to slow down QB Brady White and this Memphis offense.
Memphis is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 December games. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games as an underdog. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Penn State is 20-9-2 ATS in its last 21 against a team with a winning record. Outright winners have gone 16-0-1 ATS in the last 17 Cotton Bowls, and I don’t expect the spread to come into play in this one either as the Nittany Lions win by double-digits. Bet Penn State Saturday.
|12-27-19||Washington State v. Air Force -2.5||Top||21-31||Win||100||18 h 57 m||Show|
20* Washington State/Air Force Cheez-It Bowl BAILOUT on Air Force -2.5
I’ve been riding Air Force quite a bit this season and I’ll continue to do so in the Cheez-It Bowl against Washington State. The Falcons went 10-2 this season with their only losses coming against a pair of 10-win teams in Boise State and Navy. They beat a Pac-12 opponent outright as a road underdog in Colorado, 30-23.
I’ll back the better running team and the more motivated team here in the Falcons. It’s the first bowl for Air Force since 2016, so they are excited to be here. They average 293 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd in the nation. And they’re up against an awful Washington State defense that gives up 31.4 points and 457 yards per game, including 170 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.
Washington State absolutely never sees the triple-option, and they certainly do not have the personnel to prepare for it in bowl practices. Their players won’t be excited to be playing in the Cheez-It Bowl this year after winning 10 games and getting to play in the Alamo Bowl last year. And they won’t be excited trying to prepare to face the triple-option because they won’t be looking forward to getting cut blocked the whole game.
Air Force does boast a really good defense that gives up just 19.7 points per game this year. They are holding opponents to nearly 8 points per game less than their season averages. The Falcons only give up 208 passing yards per game as well. And one of the big reasons Air Force is so improved this season is because they actually have a passing game, averaging 131 passing yards per game and 13.8 per attempt.
Mike Leach is not a good bowl coach, either. He is 1-4 ATS as the coach of Washington State and 1-8 ATS in his last nine bowl games dating back to his time at Texas Tech. Pac-12 teams are just 1-5 ATSin the last six Cheez-It Bowls, and Pac-12 teams are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 bowl games coming into this season. The Falcons are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Take Air Force Friday.
|12-27-19||76ers v. Magic +3||Top||97-98||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +3
This is a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers. They are coming off a huge upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day. That makes this a prime letdown spot for the 76ers now. Plus, they’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days.
Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic come in on three days’ rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. Not to mention, they are highly motivated for a win after dropping five of their last seven. And the Magic are finally near full strength now in the health department, which will make them dangerous moving forward.
Home-court advantage has been huge int his series. The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. The Magic have won three straight home meetings with the 76ers outright and I think they get the job done outright again given the favorable spot for them tonight.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - a good shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5%-43.5%), after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Philadelphia is 6-19 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Magic Friday.
|12-27-19||Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -5.5||Top||21-24||Loss||-101||14 h 28 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5.5
I like Texas A&M quite a bit in the Texas Bowl Friday. The Aggies are perhaps the best 7-5 team in the country, and Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy even acknowledged it saying the same thing leading up to this game. I know he was doing it for gamesmanship reasons, but he’s not wrong.
Indeed, all five of Texas A&M’s losses this season came to teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings. They lost to three #1 teams at the time they played them in Clemson, Alabama and LSU. They also lost to Georgia and Auburn.
The good news for Texas A&M is that Oklahoma State is nowhere near the Top 10. The Cowboys only beat two bowl teams en route to an 8-4 finish in Kansas State and Iowa State. They were fortunate to beat West Virginia as they managed just 285 total yards on the Mountaineers in their second-to-last game of the season. And they were blasted by 18 at home by Oklahoma in their season finale while amassing only 335 total yards.
Texas A&M is 7-0 against non-Top 10 teams while winning by a whopping 25.4 points per game this season. The Aggies have the edge defensively in this matchup. They give up just 22.7 points per game and 341 yards per game on the season. Oklahoma State has the much worse defense, yielding 27 points per game and 418 yards per game.
I believe the Aggies come in playing with a chip on their shoulder. They finished the season with two road losses at Georgia and at LSU. They want to end their season on a winning note, and Jimbo Fisher 6-2 in his career in bowl games, including last season’s 52-13 dismantling of NC State.
Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after seven-plus games, after a loss by 17 points or more are 53-19 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Aggies are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite. Texas A&M is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. Bet Texas A&M Friday.
|12-27-19||Cavs +13.5 v. Celtics||117-129||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* Cavs/Celtics NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +13.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won three straight games coming in and are now ready to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight. The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go coming in on three days’ rest.
The same cannot be said for the Celtics. Boston is coming off a huge win over Toronto on Christmas Day on the road. That makes this a letdown spot for them, especially since they’ve already beaten the Cavs twice this season. I like the value with the Cavs given the spot and playing with double-revenge catching a whopping 13.5 points.
Plays against any team (Boston) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Cleveland) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Boston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games off three straight games where they made 50% of their shots or more. Take the Cavaliers Friday.
|12-27-19||North Carolina -4.5 v. Temple||55-13||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* UNC/Temple Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNC -4.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels are excited to be playing in the Military Bowl. They won their final two games of the season to get to 6-6 and qualify for their first bowl since 2016. They certainly want to send Mack Brown out a winner in his first season back to coaching because his players love him. I know I’m going to get a max motivated team here, and Brown is 13-8 in bowl games in his career.
No question UNC was better than its 6-6 record would indicate this season. In fact, all six of their losses came by 7 points or less. That includes their 1-point loss to Clemson. They were the only team in the country to take Clemson down to the wire this year. They have an explosive offense that puts up 31.2 points and 469 yards per game. They only gave up 382 yards per game defensively, outgaining opponents by 87 yards per game.
Temple went 8-4 this season, but their only significant wins all came at home. They lost on the road to Buffalo by 16, to SMU by 24 and to Cincinnati by 2. They were also blasted at home by UCF by 42 points. Their non-conference wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland certainly don’t look nearly as good now as they did at the beginning of the season.
I definitely to not trust Temple head coach Rod Carey in bowl games. Carey is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS lifetime in bowl games as a head coach. His teams are losing by 25 points per game straight up on average, and failing to cover the spread by 18 points per game on average. Favorites are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in the last 11 Military Bowls.
Teams with three or fewer wins the previous season (UNC 2-9) have gone 17-3 ATS the last four seasons in bowl games. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Roll with North Carolina Friday.
|12-26-19||Spurs v. Mavs -5.5||Top||98-102||Loss||-110||10 h 22 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -5.5
Luka Doncic returned to practice on Tuesday and is likely to make his return from an ankle injury tonight. Playing without Doncic, the Mavs came together as a team and showed they are more than just a one trick pony. It will help them moving forward.
In the game they lost Doncic in the opening minutes against Miami, the Mavs took the Heat to overtime and only lost 118-122. They came back and upset Milwaukee on the road as 10-point dogs in their next game. They only lost to Boston by 6 at home, pulled the 117-98 upset win as 8.5-point dogs at Philadelphia, and blew a 30-point lead at Toronto in a 107-110 loss as 3.5-point dogs.
That loss to Toronto wouldn’t have sat well with them over Christmas. Look for them to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. And they’ll be fresh and ready to go on three days’ rest. Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.
The Spurs are coming off a win over the Grizzlies, they have exactly two winning streaks of two games or more all season. The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a win dating back to last year. The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Mavericks Thursday.
|12-26-19||Knicks +7.5 v. Nets||94-82||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do not like each other based on their close proximity. The Knicks want revenge from two losses to the Nets by 4 and 2 points in their first two meetings this season. I expect this game to go down to the wire as well, so getting 7.5 points is a great value.
The Knicks have played their best basketball of the season over the last couple weeks. They are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall. They upset both the Kings as 8.5-point dogs and Warriors as 4.5-point dogs on the road, while also crushing the Hawks by 23 as 2.5-point home favorites. They only lost by 6 at Denver as well. Their only blowout losses during this stretch came to Milwaukee and Miami, two of the best teams in the NBA.
The Knicks have certainly held their own against the Nets. New York is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Brooklyn. The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games. Roll with the Knicks Thursday.
|12-26-19||Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +6.5||Top||0-14||Win||100||146 h 23 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana Tech +6.5
Louisiana Tech is one of only two teams entering the bowl season with five consecutive bowl wins the last five years; Wisconsin is the other. LA Tech head coach Skip Holtz is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games at LA Tech with four of those wins coming by 17 points or more. He clearly has this whole bowl prep thing figured out, pushing the right buttons with his players.
LA Tech will have no problem getting motivated to face a storied program like Miami. Not to mention, this will essentially feel like a home game for LA Tech considering it will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana. Motivation and location will be on their side.
A program like Miami cannot be excited to be playing in the Independence Bowl. Miami ended the season with two huge upset losses to Florida International as 21-point favorites and to Duke as 8-point favorites. They also nearly lost to Central Michigan as 30.5-point favorites earlier in the season. Head coach Manny Diaz clearly isn’t getting his team’s attention as they aren’t responding to him. It was a bad hire, plain and simple. And many of his players may be sitting out either due to injury or to prepare for the NFL.
Louisiana Tech probably would have gone 11-1 this season if not for suspension to two of their best players. QB Jamar Smith and WR Adrian Hardy both out out in their losses to Marshall and UAB, which likely cost them the C-USA title. Both returned for the season finale and led the Bulldogs to 41 points in a win over UTSA. And now the Bulldogs want to cap off their season on a positive note with 10 wins and an upset victory over Miami.
Miami is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more. LA Tech is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons. The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three years. LA Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight bowl games. The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite. Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday.
|12-25-19||Pelicans +10 v. Nuggets||Top||112-100||Win||100||35 h 42 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10
After losing 13 straight games, the New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to show some life and play up to their potential. They have won two of their last three with upset wins at Minnesota as 3-point dogs and at Portland as 6-point dogs.
I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans now after losing 14 of their last 16. They are catching double-digits here against the Denver Nuggets when they shouldn’t be. They’ll give the Nuggets a run for their money on Christmas Night, especially now that they are fully healthy outside Zion Williamson.
It’s also a good time to ‘sell high’ on the Nuggets, who have won seven straight coming in. But only two of those wins came by double-digits. And this is a tired Nuggets team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 12th game in 21 days. The Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days Wednesday.
Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. They haven’t lost any of their last seven meetings with the Nuggets by double-digits, making for a 7-0 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread. The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.
|12-25-19||Clippers v. Lakers UNDER 223||111-106||Win||100||32 h 12 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Lakers ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 223
Two of the best teams in the NBA square off at Staples Center on Christmas Day when the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Los Angeles Clippers. I expect this game to be played close to the vest as these teams are quickly becoming two of the biggest rivals in the NBA.
You can bet both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win in this matchup. And both teams have such great records this year largely because they are playing defense. The Clippers are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Lakers are 8th in defensive efficiency.
Lebron James (back) and Anthony Davis (knee) are both banged up right now for the Lakers. Both are questionable to play Wednesday, though chances are they’ll both suit up. I’m expecting a result similar to their first meeting this season when the Clippers won 112-102 for 214 combined points. It’s going to be a defensive battle.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 220 or higher (LA Lakers) - after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games, a well rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days are 26-4 (86.7%) since 1996.
The Lakers are 19-5 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Clippers are 21-5 UNDER In road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years. The UNDER is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings. The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-25-19||Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||118-102||Win||100||24 h 22 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5
The Toronto Raptors are in a world of hurt right now injury-wise. They are playing without their best player in Pascal Siakam along with fellow starter Marc Gasol and Norman Powell. They don’t stand a chance of beating the Celtics without these three Wednesday.
The Raptors just pulled a 30-point comeback win over Dallas at home on Sunday before going into overtime in a loss to Indiana on Monday. It’s safe to say this is a tired, short-handed team now playing their 3rd game in 4 days. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Celtics tonight.
Meanwhile, Boston comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday. They are also playing just their 4th game in 13 days. They are coming off two straight blowout home wins over Detroit by 21 and Charlotte by 26. This team is playing well right now and the Raptors won’t be able to slow them down given the spot.
Plays against underdogs (Toronto) - off a cover where they lost straight up as a dog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-20 (76.5%) ATS since 1996. Plays on any team (Boston) - off two straight wins by 10 or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in four straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Celtics are 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|12-24-19||BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii||34-38||Loss||-110||102 h 24 m||Show|
15* BYU/Hawaii Christmas Eve ANNIHILATOR on BYU -1.5
The BYU Cougars played a much tougher schedule than Hawaii this year. They beat the likes of USC, Tennessee, Boise State and Utah State, which are four teams that are better than anyone Hawaii has beaten this year.
Hawaii lost badly to Boise State twice losing by 22 and 21 points. The Rainbow Warriors are 9-4 this season, but only two of those wins came against bowl teams in Nevada and San Diego State, which are two teams that aren’t very good anyway. I just think this is a big step up in class for Hawaii and they have failed every time they’ve stepped up in class.
BYU owns Hawaii, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cougars will take this bowl game seriously as it is a great destination for them. Plus, the Cougars are a veteran team with grown men with the way thinks work at BYU. They won’t be distracted at all in Hawaii.
BYU has been through three different quarterbacks this year. If they had stayed healthy all season, they probably would have finished even better than 7-5. But they finally have some stability at the position now with QB Zach Wilson starting the final few games of the year, and he’ll make the start here.
I’ll gladly back the better defense and the more physical team that played the tougher schedule laying a short number in this matchup. BYU gave up just 24.4 points per game this season, including 22.0 points per game on the road. Hawaii gave up 31.7 points per game this season, including 32.6 points per game and 461.9 yards per game at home. BYU will get key stops, while Hawaii will not, and their physicality will be tested big-time.
Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. I think the Rainbow Warriors could still be deflated from losing to Boise State in the MWC Title game. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two years. Hawaii is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons. The Rainbow Warriors are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. MWC opponents. Take BYU Tuesday.
|12-23-19||Rockets v. Kings +6||113-104||Loss||-110||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6
The Sacramento Kings have lost three straight road games coming in. They return home here highly motivated for a victory to get a win before Christmas. Look for them to likely pull the upset at home over the Houston Rockets.
While we’re ‘buying low’ on the Kings off three straight losses, we’re ‘selling high’ on the Rockets off three straight wins. They went on the road and upset the Clippers before beating a banged-up Suns team on the road as 9-point favorites. Now they will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, which makes this a tough spot for them.
Sacramento is 17-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. The Kings are 14-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three years. Sacramento is 10-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.
The Kings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Sacramento is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog. The Kings pulled the 119-118 upset at Houston as 12-point road dogs in their first meeting this season, and they are upset-minded again tonight. Take the Kings Monday.
|12-23-19||Packers v. Vikings -5||Top||23-10||Loss||-105||24 h 47 m||Show|
20* Packers/Vikings ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5
The Minnesota Vikings want to stay alive in the NFC North title race. To do so, they will have to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. They will be highly motivated because of it, plus they want revenge from a 16-21 loss at Green Bay in their first meeting this season.
That was certainly a misleading final as the Vikings deserved to win the game. They outgained the Packers 421 to 335 total yards but committed four turnovers. One was a pick in the end zone when they were going in for the potential game-winning score in the 4th quarter. They haven’t forgotten, and now it’s their turn for payback.
The Packers are one of the most fraudulent 11-3 teams I’ve ever seen. They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 47 points on the season. To compare, Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 119 points on the year. Now that’s the sign of an elite team. Green Bay has simply been fortunate in close games, going 7-1 in one-score games this season.
Minnesota is 10-4, but three of its losses have come by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double-digits, so they are every bit as good as their record, if not better. And it means they know how to get margin when they need it, so I’m not concerned at all about laying the 5 points here.
Another way to see how fraudulent the Packers are is to compare their yardage differential, not just point differential. The Packers are actually getting outgained by 34.5 yards per game on the season. They rank 21st in total offense and 22nd in total defense. I am pretty certain I’ve never seen an 11-3 team that ranks worse than 20th in both categories. The Vikings are 10th in total offense and 14th in total defense, outgaining teams by 33.7 yards per game.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on favorites (Minnesota) - after having won three of their last four games when playing a hot team that’s won eight or more of their last 10 games are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Green Bay is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Packers are 3-11 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.
Mike Zimmer is 22-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Minnesota. The Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Minnesota. Bet the Vikings Monday.
|12-23-19||Jazz v. Heat -4||104-107||Loss||-108||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4
The Miami Heat are showing great value as only 4-point home favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight. The Heat are 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game on average.
The Jazz are just 7-8 SU & 5-9-1 ATS on the road this season. Utah is without starting PG Mike Conley as he just can’t seem to get healthy. And I think the Jazz are overvalued due to their five-game winning streak against some bad teams in Minnesota, Golden State, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte. All five of those games went down to the wire, too.
Miami comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Friday. And the Heat have the next three days off as well. They are looking to put forth a big effort here knowing they get that time off, plus they are fresh.
The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Heat Monday.
|12-23-19||Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida||Top||25-48||Loss||-109||73 h 54 m||Show|
20* Marshall/UCF Gasparilla Bowl No-Brainer on Marshall +17.5
Marshall is very familiar with the Gasparilla Bowl as they will be playing in it for the second straight year and their third time in five years. They are happy to be playing a team the caliber of UCF, so motivation certainly won’t be in question for them.
I do question UCF’s motivation. The Knights played in a New Year’s 6 Bowl each of the last two seasons facing Auburn in the Peach Bowl and LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This Gasparilla Bowl is a big step down in prestige, and they cannot possibly be motivated to face Marshall this postseason.
UCF has been overvalued all season and especially down the stretch. The Knights are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have been consistently laying too many points, and they are again here against Marshall.
Marshall has been a postseason juggernaut. Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games overall. Head coach Doc Holiday is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in bowl games at Marshall, so he clearly takes these games seriously and knows the right buttons to push to get his teams ready. The Thundering Herd have won those six bowl games by an average of 12.8 points per game.
The Knights are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. UCF is 1-4 ATS in its last neutral site games. The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games. Marshall is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games on grass. The Thundering Herd are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Roll with Marshall Monday.
|12-22-19||Chiefs -6 v. Bears||Top||26-3||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -6
The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing defense like the ’85 Bears here down the stretch. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL when you consider the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy. The Chiefs are only giving up 11.3 points per game over their last four games.
Now Kansas City goes up against an awful Chicago offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in averaging just 298.4 yards per game. The Bears are also scoring just 18.3 points per game, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.
And that’s even if the Bears actually show up. I could see them packing it in this week after suffering their dream-crushing loss to the division rival Packers last week. That loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and I usually love fading teams the week after they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by at least 7 points, so they should have no problem beating this hapless Bears team by a TD or more. They went on the road and beat both the Chargers by 7 and the Patriots by 7. And they also beat the Raiders by 31 and the Broncos by 20 at home. They are hitting on all cylinders right now.
The Bears have some injuries that will prevent them from being competitive also. They are without LB Danny Trevethan, DE Akiem Hicks, OT Bobbie Massie and WR Taylor Gabriel. And it’s a pretty easy choice here to back Patrick Mahomes over Mitch Trubisky, who just called out his coach last week and there’s certainly some divisiveness in their locker room right now.
The Chiefs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Kansas City is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an ATS win. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-22-19||Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 219.5||89-117||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 219.5
Two of the top defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Pacers are 7th. That has been key to both of their successes this season.
It’s no surprise the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. The Bucks and Pacers have combined for 219 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219.5-point total.
Milwaukee beat Indiana 102-83 in their first meeting this season for just 185 combined points. And the Bucks aren’t at full strength right now as they will be without PG Eric Bledsoe and his 15 PPG and likely Wesley Mathews as well. Jeremy Lamb and Domantas Sabonis are questionable for Indiana.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last nine games overall. The UNDER is 28-9-1 in Pacers last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four road games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-22-19||Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks||Top||27-13||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +9.5
The Seattle Seahawks are the most fraudulent 11-3 team I’ve ever seen. They have only outscored opponents by a total of 26 points on the season. They are 10-1 in games decide by one score, so they have been lucky in close games. Only once have they won a game by more than 8 points all season.
A lot of people will tell you it’s because Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’. But Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career prior to this season. Getting Arizona catching more than one score here is a tremendous value that we’re going to capitalize on Sunday.
The Seahawks have a ton of injuries right now that are holding them back, too. On defense, they’ll be without DE Jadeveon Clowney, NT Al Woods and S Quandre Diggs. They have key injuries on all three levels of their defense. Offensively, they will be without LT Duane Brown, and they just lost star WR Josh Gordon to a suspension.
The Seahawks can afford to lose this game and they’d still win the division if they beat the 49ers next week. That makes this a huge lookahead spot for them. Everything will be on the line next week, not this week. And we’ve seen the Seahawks throw up some duds all season at home. They only beat the Bengals by 1, lost to the Saints, lost to the Ravens, only beat the Rams by 1, and needed OT to beat the Bucs. They haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points yet this season.
I can’t give the Seahawks much respect because they don’t deserve it with how poor their defense is. Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 378.3 yards per game. Arizona just hung 38 points on Cleveland last week and will be able to move the ball and score points on this Seattle D. The back door will always be open if we need it.
The Cardinals have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 4-1-1 ATS. And that one push was when they led San Francisco the entire way until the final seconds and gave up a lateral return TD that turned a lead into a 10-point loss as 10-point dogs. They only lost by 6 at Baltimore, beat the Bengals and Giants outright, and lost by 3 at Tampa. Their only blowout road loss came to the Saints.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Seattle. Arizona is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-22-19||Houston v. Portland +18||81-56||Loss||-105||3 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +18
The Houston Cougars returned just one starter from a great team last year. They have been overvalued all season. They have upset losses to BYU and Oklahoma State at home, and they have struggled to put teams away.
Portland can hang with Houston. The Pilots are 8-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with their largest loss coming by 11 points. Terry Porter is doing a good job with this program. The Pilots only lost by 11 at USC as 23-point favorites, and they pulled the upset at Portland State as 6.5-point dogs.
The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Pilots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Take Portland Sunday.
|12-22-19||Saints v. Titans +3||38-28||Loss||-102||4 h 17 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3
The Tennessee Titans would be out of the playoffs if their season ended today. They are tied with the Steelers for the 6th seed, but currently lose out on the tiebreaker. They are in must-win mode this week, and have been since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. And they’ve delivered.
The Titans are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Last week’s loss to Houston was misleading. A receiver dropped a Tannehill pass on the goal line that was intercepted and returned 90 yards to set up an easy score for the Texans. It was the difference in the game in a 24-21 win by Houston.
Tannehill is completing 71.5% of his passes with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per attempt. The Titans having the threat of the pass with Tannehill and his underrated targets has opened things up for the running game here in the second half of the season. They have averaged 174 rushing yards per game in their last six games.
The Saints will be working on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football. It’s definitely a potential letdown spot after Drew Brees set the all-time passing TD record and the highest completion percentage every in a single game. The Colts simply did not show up after their deflating loss to the Bucs the previous week that pretty much knocked them out of contention.
The Titans will be able to exploit some injuries on the Saints’ defense that the Colts could not. The Saints lost top pass rusher Marcus Davenport and top run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries two weeks ago against the 49ers. They have injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary of note as well.
New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in. The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
Plays on home teams off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 28-8 ATS since 1983. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|12-21-19||Rams v. 49ers -6.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-108||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -6.5
I was on the Atlanta Falcons against the 49ers last week as my 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR. I recognized it was a huge flat spot for them after playing the Packers, Ravens & Saints in three consecutive weeks, and with games against the division rival Rams and Seahawks on deck. And the 49ers lost outright.
I think we will look back and see that was a loss they needed to get humbled. They could afford that loss, it didn’t hurt them at all. Now they can’t afford another loss. It’s simple for the 49ers now. Win out and they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC. They are in control of their own destiny, and I know they’ll put their best foot forward today because of it, and it will be good enough to beat the Rams by 7 points or more.
The Rams suffered a devastating 21-44 loss to the Cowboys last week. Now they have about a 3% chance to make the playoffs. They need to win out and have the Vikings lose out to make the playoffs. It’s simply not going to happen, they know it, I know it, we all know it. So I don’t expect a very good effort from the Rams here after they just had their dreams crushed with that loss to Dallas.
It wasn’t just any loss, either. The Cowboys throttled them 44-21. And the Rams got two garbage touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to make the score appear better than it really was. Their defense was shredded for 475 total yards, and their offense only managed 289 total yards with the majority of that coming on their final two drives of the game.
Jared Goff was playing awful before he hit his thumb on a Cowboys’ helmet. He became check down Charlie after that. I think his thumb is a real problem that’s not being talked about much at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to get some key players back from injury this week, including CB Richard Sherman.
San Francisco beat the Rams 20-7 on the road as 3-point dogs in their first meeting this season. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score showed. The 49ers held the Rams to just 10 first downs and 165 total yards. They sacked Goff four times and pressured him 22 more times while limiting him to 56 passing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 2.3 yards per attempt.
When the Rams have stepped up in class this season, they have gotten throttled. They had that 20-7 loss to the 49ers, that 21-44 loss to the Cowboys, and don’t forget they lost 6-45 to Baltimore a few weeks back. When Goff is pressured, he folds, and we’ve seen it time and time again. The Rams simply can’t hang with the top teams in the NFL, and they won’t hang with the 49ers this week, either.
The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs. Los Angeles is 22-46 ATS in its last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|12-21-19||Kings -105 v. Grizzlies||115-119||Loss||-105||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings PK
It’s a bad spot for both the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Both teams played last night in road losses to the Pacers and Cavs, respectively. But it’s clearly a worse spot for the Grizzlies, and the Kings are the better team in this matchup, so getting them at a pick ‘em is a great value.
Sacramento had two days off prior to that game at Indiana. So the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 4 days here. Memphis will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. I trust the Kings will have more in the tank than the Grizzlies as a result.
The Kings are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season. Sacramento is 10-2 ATS off a non-conference game this season. The Kings are 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two years. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss. The Kings are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Grizzlies are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing on zero days’ rest. Bet the Kings Saturday.
|12-21-19||Washington v. Boise State UNDER 49||38-7||Win||100||30 h 57 m||Show|
15* Saturday Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Boise State UNDER 49
This game between Washington and Boise State will be played close to the vest. Washington coach Chris Petersen has said he will retire following this game. And he takes on his former team in Boise State. This game means a lot to both teams, and I think defense wins out.
These are two very good defenses as Washington allows just 20.4 points per game this season, while Boise State gives up only 20.6 points per game. Washington held opponents to 8.0 points per game less than their season averages this season, while Boise State limited foes to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.
Helping out this UNDER will be two key players who are sitting out for Washington. LT Trey Adams will sit out to prepare for the NFL. But the bigger loss is TE Hunter Bryant, who will also sit out to get ready for the pros. Bryant is Washington’s leading receiver with 52 receptions for 825 yards on the season. He will be missed in the passing game.
Boise State is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game. The UNDER is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-1 in Huskies last seven neutral site games as a favorite. Boise State is 9-1 UNDER after having won six or seven of its last eight games over the last two seasons. Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a conference game over the last two years. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-21-19||Murray State v. Evansville +3||76-78||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Evansville +3
Evansville is off a bad loss at Jacksonville State and will return home highly motivated for a win when they host Murray State today. This is an Evansville team that upset Kentucky on the road as 24.5-point dogs earlier this season to flash their potential.
Murray State is just 6-4 this season. They lost to Drake by 10 and La Salle by 11 on a neutral. They also lost by 19 at Tennessee and lost at Missouri State. While Murray State has been great at home, they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all games played on the highway.
Evansville is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons. Roll with Evansville Saturday.
|12-21-19||Dayton -5 v. Colorado||76-78||Loss||-109||8 h 34 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dayton -5
The Dayton Flyers are clearly one of the best teams in the country. They are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS with their only loss coming to Kansas, the No. 1 ranked team in the nation. I expect Dayton to make easy work of Colorado.
This Colorado team has been disappointing. They returned all five starters so expectations were high. And while they are 9-2 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS. They lost by 14 to Kansas while Dayton only lost by 6 to Kansas. Colorado was also upset by Northern Iowa at home, and they really don’t have many good wins.
I like the rest advantage for Dayton in this one. They have three days’ rest to get ready for Colorado after last playing on Tuesday. Colorado just played Prairie View A&M at home on Thursday, so they have only had one day to get ready for Dayton. That’s not enough prep time to get ready to face at team of Dayton’s caliber.
Colorado is 1-14 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two years. Take Dayton Saturday.
|12-21-19||Minnesota v. Oklahoma State -3||Top||86-66||Loss||-115||7 h 34 m||Show|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -3
This game is technically on a neutral court, but it will definitely feel like a home court for Oklahoma City behind played in Tulsa, Oklahoma. I think we are getting the Cowboys at a discount today as only 3-point favorites over Minnesota.
The Gophers are definitely in a letdown spot off their shocking upset home win over Ohio State as 7.5-point dogs. This is a team that just lost by 20 in their previous game at Iowa, so it came out of nowhere. They also already have losses to Oklahoma, Butler, Utah and DePaul with five losses on the season. They aren’t nearly as good as they showed against Ohio State.
Oklahoma State is 8-2 this season and every bit as good as its record. The Cowboys beat Syracuse by 14 on a neutral and Ole Miss by 41 on a neutral. They also upset Houston on the road as 7-point dogs. They’ve had five days off since that win over Houston and will be ready to go tonight.
The Golden Gophers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a win. The Golden Gophers are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 vs. Big 12 opponents. Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a dog of 6 points or more. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
|12-21-19||SMU -3 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||28-52||Loss||-120||27 h 20 m||Show|
20* Bowl BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -3
I question Florida Atlantic’s motivation. The Owls lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss, and he took some of his staff with him. And the players know that Willie Taggart will be their coach next year. I don’t expect them to take this bowl game too seriously. Plus, they have to stay at home instead of going to a destination bowl, which I look at as a negative. Oddsmakers are giving the Owls too many points for home-field advantage.
SMU was really close to being 12-0 this season. The Mustangs’ only two losses both came on the road to Memphis and Navy by 6 and 7 points, respectively. Those are two 10-win teams. You know that this veteran team that returned 16 starters wants to end their season on a high not with 11 wins. They will be motivated.
SMU played a schedule that ranked 75th in the country while FAU played a schedule that ranked 115th. That’s a 40-spot difference in strength of schedule. The Mustangs are the most battle-tested team by far, and FAU doesn’t have any wins against a team the caliber of SMU this season. They lost to Ohio State in the opener by 24, then were thumped by UCF 14-48 at home, a fellow AAC team with SMU. The Mustangs beat North Texas 49-27, a fellow C-USA team to FAU.
Sonny Dykes is 14-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached. FAU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game. We’re getting the better team with the better motivation laying only 3 points in this bowl game, which is a huge discount. Bet SMU Saturday.
Note: I took SMU -3 before the suspensions came out for FAU. I still like SMU up to -10. The suspensions are worth at least 7 points. FAU will be without its top 3 receivers, including TE Harrison Bryant, the Mackey Award winner for the nation's best TE. FAU doesn't have another played eligible who caught more than 15 passes this season. Leading tackler Keke Leroy will be missed. He had 101 tackles, five forced fumbles and three INT this season. And leading rusher Malcolm Davidson (711 yards) is out.
|12-20-19||Knicks +10 v. Heat||114-129||Loss||-115||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10
The New York Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They upset both Golden State and Sacramento on the road, and covered in a 6-point loss at 10-point dogs at Denver. They also crushed Atlanta 143-120 at home last time out.
The Miami Heat return home from a three-game road trip here. The Heat are in a letdown spot off their upset win at Philadelphia as 9-point dogs last time out. They won’t take the Knicks nearly as seriously as they took the 76ers in that huge showdown Wednesday night.
The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five Friday games. The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. Take the Knicks Friday.
|12-20-19||Pistons v. Celtics -9||93-114||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9
The Boston Celtics should make easy work of the Detroit Pistons tonight. The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin (16.3 PPG), Luke Kennard (15.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (9.1 PPG). They have zero chance of making this game competitive with the Celtics without these three guys.
The Celtics have lost two of their last three coming in, so they won’t be taking the Pistons lightly. But Boston is also rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 8 days. The Celtics are 10-1 at home this season, while the Pistons are 4-9 on the road.
The Celtics are 22-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons, including 15-2 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years. Detroit is 3-14 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points per game over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|12-20-19||Kent State +6 v. Utah State||Top||51-41||Win||100||76 h 33 m||Show|
20* Kent State/Utah State Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on Kent State +6
Kent State will be playing in just their 2nd bowl game since 1972. They are excited to be here, especially when you look at the gauntlet they had to go through to get here. They had to face Arizona State, Auburn & Wisconsin all on the road in non-conference play.
The Golden Flashes opened 3-6 before winning their final three games all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State & Eastern Michigan. 6-6 teams off a SU win as an underdog are 70% ATS since 2000. This bowl trend makes sense to me because these teams had to pull an upset in their final game to get here, so they clearly want to be here. And Kent State just pulled three straight upsets. They have been undervalued all season with an 8-4 ATS mark. And I think they’re being undervalued again here.
Utah State went from winning 11 games last year to going just 7-5 this year and having to play Kent State in the Frisco Bowl. I don’t think they’re too excited to be here. And clearly their players aren’t taking it too seriously. QB Jordan Love, RB Gerold Bright & WR Sean Carter were cited for pot possession over the weekend.
Love is a potential first-round draft pick and has stated he will be skipping his senior season. But he has struggled this year with a 17-to-16 TD/INT ratio. Bright is their leading rusher with 827 yards and 8 touchdowns. Early indications are all three players will play, otherwise we’d see a much bigger line move. But it’s not going to matter. If would be an added bonus if they sit.
The only four teams Utah State beat by more than 6 points this year were Stony Brook, Colorado State, New Mexico and Nevada. Only one of those was a bowl team in Nevada, and they aren’t very good. Utah State gave up 35 points per game over their final six games and have a leaky defense. Kent State has scored at least 30 points in five of its last six and will expose that leaky defense.
Sean Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games against poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game as the coach of Kent State. Kent State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS when the total is 63 or higher over the last two seasons. Bowl teams that won three or fewer games the previous season have gone 16-2 ATS over the last three years in bowl games. Bet Kent State Friday.
|12-20-19||Akron -4.5 v. Tulane||62-61||Loss||-105||3 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Akron -4.5
John Groce has the Akron Zips playing some great basketball this season. The Zips are off to an 8-2 start this year with their only losses coming by 10 as 12-point dogs at West Virginia and by 6 as 18-point dogs at Louisville. If they can hang with both those teams, they can hang with anyone.
Ron Hunter is also doing a great job in his first season at Tulane. The Green Wave are off to an 8-2 start as well, but their results aren’t nearly as impressive. They lost by 14 to Mississippi State on a neutral as 10-pint dogs and were blown out by 24 by Saint Louis on a neutral as 4.5-point dogs.
Tulane is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons. The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Akron is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Green Wave are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog. Roll with Akron Friday.
|12-20-19||Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte||31-9||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
15* Buffalo/Charlotte 2019 Bowl Season Opener on Buffalo -6.5
The Buffalo Bulls are in search of their first bowl win in program history. The Charlotte 49ers are just happy to be in their first ever bowl game. I think the Bulls are the superior team in this matchup, and the weather conditions with near-30 mile per hour winds in the Bahamas will favor the Bulls.
I would argue that Buffalo was the best team in the MAC even though they didn’t win the MAC title. They went 5-3 in MAC play with all three losses called into question. They outgained MAC champ Miami Ohio by by 133 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 in their loss to the Redhawks. They only lost 20-21 to Ohio as 3-point dogs despite outgaining the Bobcats by 37 yards. And they blew a 27-6 lead to Kent State in the final eight minutes to lost 27-30.
That’s how close the Bulls were to being 8-0 in MAC play. Not to mention, they beat Temple 38-22 as 14-point dogs in non-conference, and actually led Penn State at halftime on the road and hung right with the Nittany Lions in the stat department. They actually outgained Penn State by 72 yards in a misleading final.
Buffalo comes in having scored 43-plus points in four of their last five games overall. The Bulls rely on their ground attack that has produced two 1,000-yard rushers. They rush for 254 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. With the high winds in the Bahamas, the team that runs the ball better will win and cover this game.
Charlotte also has a solid ground attack at 210 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. However, it’s on defense where Buffalo has the huge advantage. The Bulls only allow 95 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Charlotte gives up a whopping 193 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. The 49ers have the better passing attack, but that will be a non-factor in this weather.
Buffalo is 10-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS off three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Charlotte is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. Take Buffalo Friday.
|12-19-19||Rockets v. Clippers -5||Top||122-117||Loss||-109||11 h 49 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5
It’s the grudge match tonight between the Clippers and Rockets. They have split the first two meetings this season with the home team winning reach. But the Clippers are just now at full strength finally, and I think they will make easy work of the Rockets at home tonight.
The Clippers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall with their only losses coming on the road. The Clippers are 14-1 SU & 10-4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game. This is a short number for them to be laying at home tonight.
The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have struggled to put away some bad teams. They lost outright to the Pistons as 7.5-point home favorites and outright to the Kings as 12-point favorites. They also failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites over the Suns and 10-point home favorites over the Spurs. They also let the Cavs take them to the wire as 11.5-point favorites.
The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
|12-19-19||Nets v. Spurs -3||105-118||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3
The Spurs have turned the corner finally and are playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 4-3 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the likes of the Clippers and Rockets. And they only lost by 2 to the Rockets as 10-point road dogs last time out.
Now the Spurs come in on two days’ rest and will be hosting the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as this will be a tough spot for them. Not to mention, they needed overtime to put away the Pelicans on Tuesday.
The Spurs are 21-3 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets. San Antonio is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 meetings with Brooklyn, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings.
San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games. The Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss. Roll with the Spurs Thursday.
|12-19-19||UTEP +12.5 v. Houston||57-77||Loss||-109||8 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +12.5
I’ve made some good money fading Houston this season and I’ll continue to do so for many of the same reasons tonight. The Cougars are getting treated like the team they were last year, and not the team that returned just one starter this year and is inexperienced.
Indeed, Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall. That includes an upset loss as an 11.5-point home favorite to BYU, a 12-point loss at Oregon as 7-point dogs, and a 6-point upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 7-point favorites. The Cougars also failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas-Arlington as 14-point favorites, needed a late comeback to beat Rice by 8 as 13-point road favorites, and failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas State as 12.5-point favorites.
The Cougars couldn’t get margin against all of those teams, and they certainly won’t get margin against one of the most underrated teams in the country in UTEP tonight. UTEP returned four starters this season, and head coach Rodney Terry is doing a great job. The Miners are off to an 8-1 start this season with their only loss coming by 3 at New Mexico State as 5.5-point dogs. They also beat NMSU, New Mexico and UC-Irvine at home, three quality teams.
The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. UTEP is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Miners are 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Take UTEP Thursday.
|12-18-19||Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs||Top||109-103||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -2.5
I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight. The Celtics are coming off two straight tough losses to the Pacers and 76ers in a back-to-back situation. Now they’ve had a whopping five days off to rest and recover after last playing on December 12th. It’s safe to say we will get a big effort from the Celtics tonight.
The Mavericks are in a massive letdown spot. They are coming off a shocking 120-116 upset win at Milwaukee as 10-point underdogs on Monday. It’s like the Bucks didn’t take them seriously without Luka Doncic and the Mavericks took advantage. But they’re going to feel the loss of Doncic sooner rather than later, including tonight.
You simply don’t replace a player of Doncic’s caliber. He has been neck-and-neck with Giannis as the favorite to win the MVP up to this point. Doncic averages 29.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game. He means everything to the Mavericks.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dallas) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6 or more points per game, after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1996. Boston is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Dallas. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|12-18-19||St. Mary's v. Arizona State +1.5||96-56||Loss||-109||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona State +1.5
Bobby Hurley is doing a great job at Arizona State. He has the Sun Devils off to an 8-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Colorado and Virginia (by 3). They just beat Georgia by 20 and now I expect them to take down Saint Mary’s tonight.
The Gaels came into the season overvalued due to returning all five starters. They have gone 9-2 SU but lost to Winthrop at home and Dayton (by 10). They are just 4-7 ATS and have had some ugly performances. They only beat Lehigh by 11 as 20.5-point favorites, Nebraska-Omaha by 9 as 15.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois by 12 as 14-point favorites.
This will essentially be a home game for Arizona State despite technically being on a neutral. It’s being played at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix.
The Sun Devils are 10-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. Arizona State is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last three years. Roll with Arizona State Wednesday.
|12-18-19||Tennessee v. Cincinnati +1.5||66-78||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +1.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a shocking loss to Colgate at home. It was a clearly letdown spot for them after facing rival Xavier in their previous game and losing a heartbreaker. Now I fully expect the Bearcats to bring their best effort of the season tonight hosting the 21st-ranked Tennessee Vols.
Tennessee is being priced like it is the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Vols only returned one starter from that squad. The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and were just upset at home by rival Memphis as 6-point favorites. Now the Vols are in a similar flat spot that Cincinnati was just in after facing an in-state rival.
Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points in their last seven games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more points in their last seven games are 94-51 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Cincinnati Wednesday.
|12-17-19||Miami-FL v. Temple -2||78-77||Loss||-113||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Miami/Temple ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Temple -2
The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Maryland by 7 on a neutral as 9-point dogs and to Missouri at home. They have impressive road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M as well as a dominant neutral site win over Davidson.
I like how Temple bounced back from that poor loss to Missouri with a 108-61 throttling of rival St. Joe’s as an 11.5-point favorite. And now the Owls have had a full week to get ready for Miami after last playing on December 10th, giving them six days in between games to prepare.
Miami only gets two days to get ready for Temple after playing on Saturday in an 88-74 win over Alabama A&M as 26.5-point favorites. The Gators have some really poor losses this season as they were beaten by 20 by Florida on a neutral and lost by 25 to UConn on a neutral. They really don’t have a good win on their schedule outside perhaps Illinois.
Temple is 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last three seasons. Miami is 1-10 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years. The Hurricanes are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog. The Owls are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 neutral site games. Roll with Temple Tuesday.
|12-17-19||Florida -4.5 v. Providence||83-51||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida -4.5
The Florida Gators started slow this season. But they’ve turned the corner in going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with a 20-point win over Miami and a 5-point win over Xavier on a neutral. Their only loss came on the road at Butler during this stretch.
Now the Gators have had nine days off since that loss to Butler to get ready for Providence. They are champing at the bit to hit the court tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Meanwhile, Providence only has two days to get ready for Florida after playing Stony Brook on Saturday.
This is a very poor Providence team. The Friars are just 6-5 SU & 2-8 ATS this season. Their six wins have come against Sacred Heart, New Jersey Tech, St. Peters, Merrimack, Pepperdine (by 3) and Stony Brook (by 4). They lost to Northwestern by 9 as 9-point favorites, lost to Penn by 6 as 15-point favorites, lost outright to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost outright to College of Charleston as 9-point favorites, and weren’t competitive in their 14-point loss at Rhode Island.
The Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as a favorite. The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Take Florida Tuesday.
|12-17-19||Lakers v. Pacers +4.5||Top||102-105||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5
The Lakers will be playing their seventh road game in their last eight contests. They are starting to show signs of wearing down. They failed to cover in a 3-point win at Miami on Friday and also failed to cover in a 5-point win at Atlanta on Sunday. I think their winning streak comes to an end Tuesday.
The Indiana Pacers are playing almost as well as the Lakers right now. They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall and should not be catching points at home to Los Angeles tonight. They have gone 6-1 SU at home during this stretch with their only loss to the Clippers.
The Lakers are dealing with some injuries right now as Kyle Kuzma is expected to sit out, while Anthony Davis is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Hawks. And this is the ultimate lookahead spot as the Lakers have the Bucks on deck Thursday on TNT. I expect them to be overlooking the Pacers and looking ahead to that game against Milwaukee.
The Lakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite. The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.
|12-16-19||Colts +10 v. Saints||Top||7-34||Loss||-120||50 h 38 m||Show|
20* Colts/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Indianapolis +10
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts this week. They have lost five of their last six games overall. They lost the last three weeks despite holding a second half lead in all three games. That’s because they have been outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter in their losses to the Titans, Texans & Bucs.
Four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. The only one they lost by more than that was their misleading 17-31 loss to Tennessee. Indianapolis was attempting a FG that would have given them the lead with only five minutes left, but it was blocked and returned for a TD. That 10-point swing was the difference in the game. The Colts actually outgained the Titans 391 to 292 for the game.
The Saints are coming off the type of loss that could beat them twice. They lost a 46-48 shootout to the 49ers at home on a last-second field goal. They went for two instead of kicking the extra point early in the game, and it probably cost them the game. I believe this is now a huge flat spot for the Saints, who have basically given home-field advantage to the 49ers now.
New Orleans has some real big injuries that are getting overlooked on defense right now. It’s a big reason the 49ers scored 48 points and gained 516 total yards on them last week. They lost pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries last week against the 49ers. They were playing without LB’s AJ Klein and Kiko Alonso last week and both are questionable again this week. This once-stout New Orleans defense has started to show a ton of holes in recent weeks.
New Orleans is fortunate to be 10-3 this season. The Saints are 7-1 in one-possession games this season. Seven of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. I think there’s tremendous value with the Colts catching double-digits because of it.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Indianapolis) - off a close loss by 3 points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.
The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three years. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet the Colts Monday.
|12-16-19||Spurs +10 v. Rockets||107-109||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +10
The Houston Rockets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as 10-point home favorites over the San Antonio Spurs. This team is not playing well enough right now to warrant laying this big of a number. The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes upset losses to both the Kings and Pistons.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Spurs, who have been one of the worst covering teams in the NBA this season at 6-18-1 ATS in their 25 games. The Spurs have won four of their last six coming in over the Clippers, Rockets, Kings and Suns. They have stepped up in class and shown they can hang.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. Roll with the Spurs Monday.
|12-16-19||Cavs +12.5 v. Raptors||113-133||Loss||-102||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5
The Toronto Raptors have been struggling here of late without Fred VanVleet, and he’s doubtful again tonight. They Raptors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Their only two wins came by a single point over the Bills as 6-point road favorites and by 8 over the Nets as 6.5-point home favorites.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown they can step up in class here of late and compete. They only lost by 6 as 11.5-point home dogs to the Rockets, went on the road and upset the Spurs by 8 as 12-point dogs, and barely failed to cover at Milwaukee. Now they are catching 12.5-points here to the Raptors, which is too much.
Toronto is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. The Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Toronto. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|12-15-19||Lakers v. Hawks +12||101-96||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +12
There’s no doubt you’re paying a premium now to back the 23-3 Los Angeles Lakers. They have covered five of their last six and are now laying double-digits on the road to the Atlanta Hawks. This is a game the Hawks will give them a run for their money tonight.
It’s a bad spot for the Lakers. They are coming off a win in Miami, and there’s a lot of distractions that come along with playing in Miami. Teams often times come out flat in their next game. And the Lakers will be playing their 3rd straight road game here and are in the midst of a stretch of eight of their last nine on the road.
The Hawks have failed to cover three in a row, and it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them. They’ll show up for the Lakers today. Kyle Kuzma is out and Lebron James is questionable for the Lakers. The Hawks are fully healthy outside the suspension to John Collins.
The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hawks are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games off a double-digit home loss. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the Hawks Sunday.
|12-15-19||Falcons +11.5 v. 49ers||Top||29-22||Win||100||27 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +11.5
This is a massive letdown spot for the 49ers. They have played three straight games against three of the best teams in the NFL. They beat the Packers at home before losing to the Ravens on a last-second field goal on the road. Then they got a last-second field goal of their own to beat the Saints on the road last week.
That was a 48-46 shootout and it had to take a lot out of them. Remember, they stayed in Florida last week so they’ve been gone from their families for two weeks. I usually like fading teams when they come back home off long road trips because there are a lot of distractions they must deal with back home. And it’s a sandwich spot for them with two huge division games coming up against the Rams and Seahawks the next two weeks.
The 49ers suffered some key injuries in that win over the Saints, too. They lost center Weston Richburg for the season. They also lost DE Dee Ford and CB Richard Sherman to hamstring injuries. They have a handful of other guys questionable this week, including do-it-all FB Kyle Juszcyk. They are in about as poor a shape injury-wise as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot for a team that has been banged up all year.
The Atlanta Falcons continue to battle week in and week out. They have won three of their last five games and have been competitive in four of them. They beat the Saints on the road and took the Saints to the wire at home. They blew out the Panthers on the road and at home. They have outgained four of their last five opponents.
The Falcons got back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper last week and promptly put up 40 points and 461 total yards on the Panthers in a 40-20 win. They will relish this opportunity to face the top team in the NFC and former coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers can afford a loss because basically their season is going to come down to their Week 17 game against the Seahawks. I just think this is a really bad spot for the 49ers, especially asking them to lay double-digits here.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top team that wins 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-15-19||Rams -111 v. Cowboys||21-44||Loss||-111||22 h 49 m||Show|
15* Rams/Cowboys NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK
The Dallas Cowboys just seem content to play bad football knowing that none of these games matter for them. The only game that matters is next week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The winner of that game will likely win the NFC East. The Cowboys have lost three straight games coming in, including upset losses to the Bills and Bears the last two weeks.
The Los Angeles Rams simply need this game more right now. The Rams are 8-5 and one game behind the Vikings for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC. They really need to win out if they want to make the playoffs. They’re playing like a hungry team, too.
The Rams beat Arizona 34-7 on the road two weeks ago and racked up 549 total yards while limiting the Cardinals to just 198 yards. And last week they won 28-12 at home over the Seahawks. They gained 455 total yards on the Seahawks and held them to just 308 yards. They also held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a pick-6.
Jared Goff and this Rams offense is now hitting on all cylinders now that he has his full compliment of weapons. And they are shutting teams down defensively. I like the matchup for the Rams because stopping the run is the key to stopping the Cowboys. The Rams rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record. The Rams are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off two straight wins over division opponents. Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record.
I know the Rams will show up this week, and I’m convinced the Cowboys are looking ahead to their game against the Eagles next week from what I’ve seen from them. We’ll back the more motivated team here this afternoon. Take the Rams Sunday.
|12-15-19||Browns v. Cardinals +3||24-38||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3
The Cleveland Browns should not be favored on the road here against the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns have a laundry list of injuries on their offensive and defensive lines that will make it very difficult for them to beat the Cardinals this week.
Cleveland is coming off a misleading 27-19 home win over the awful Cincinnati Bengals. They deserved to lose that game, but the Bengals gave it to them. Cincinnati racked up 453 total yards and held Cleveland to just 323 yards in the game. But the Bengals either turned it over on downs or settled for field goals too many times in the red zone. To give up 453 yards to the Bengals is a bad sign for this Cleveland defense.
Arizona hung tough at home against Pittsburgh last week in a 17-23 loss. The difference in that game was a special teams touchdown for the Steelers. And after facing three great defenses in a row in the 49ers, Rams and Steelers, Kyler Murray and company are ready to bust out here against this soft Cleveland defense this week.
Arizona is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home loss. The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Wrong team favored here. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-15-19||Oklahoma State +7 v. Houston||61-55||Win||100||3 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +7
The Houston Cougars lost a ton of talent from last year. I’ve been fading them with success as they returned just one starter, but are being priced like the team they were last season. The Cougars are 7-2 but just 3-5 ATS in their lined games.
Oklahoma State is one of the most improved teams in the country. They are also 7-2 and returned all five starters from last year. I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on this team off back-to-back upset losses to Georgetown and Wichita State.
Those losses followed up impressive showings in an 86-72 upset win over Syracuse on a neutral and a dominant 78-37 win over Ole Miss on a neutral as well. I have no doubt the Cowboys will be highly motivated to bounce back today, and they will be fresh and ready to go as they last played a week ago today.
The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.
|12-15-19||Texans v. Titans -3||Top||24-21||Loss||-102||18 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -3
The Tennessee Titans are playing as well as anyone in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. This run has moved them into a first place tie with the Houston Texans in the AFC South. Now they have their chance to pull ahead as they host the Texans today.
If the Titans were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week. It didn’t happen. The Titans handled their business by crushing the Raiders 42-21 on the road. That game was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed. The Titans racked up 552 total yards on the Raiders as their offense continues to thrive.
Tannehill is completing 73.4% of his passes for 1,993 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio and a 118.5 QBR this season. Derrick Henry has really gotten going on the ground as the Titans have rushed for at least 121 yards in five straight games and an average of 176 rushing yards per game during this stretch.
Now the Titans should continue to have success against a soft Houston defense that simply hasn’t been very good without JJ Watt. The Texans gave up 448 total yards to the Patriots two weeks ago and 38 points and 391 yards to a bad Broncos offense last week. They give up 23.8 points per game on the season and are worst than that of late. The Titans only allow 19.6 points per game on the year and clearly have the better defense in this matchup.
Tennessee is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Houston is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. The Titans are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more over the last two years. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|12-15-19||Broncos +10 v. Chiefs||3-23||Loss||-108||18 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10
I always like fading teams off an upset win over the New England Patriots. That’s the case for the Chiefs, who were aided by the refs in their 23-16 win at New England last week. Now the Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and this is a massive letdown spot for them. They got their revenge on the Patriots from their playoff loss last year, and now they’ll relax.
We saw the same thing happen to the Houston Texans last week. Off their upset win over the Patriots, they promptly lost outright as nearly double-digit favorites at home to the Denver Broncos. Now the Broncos get to play the role of spoiler again and they come in here with some momentum.
Indeed, the Broncos throttled the Texans 38-24. It was an even bigger blowout than that as the Broncos led by as many as 28 points. They racked up 391 total yards on the Texans, and rookie QB Drew Lock was brilliant. He went 22-of-27 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Now Lock should continue to have success against his soft Kansas City defense.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Chiefs have consistency been overvalued at home here of late. They have lost three of their last five home games outright. The Broncos are 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Broncos only have three double-digit losses this season. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|12-14-19||Gonzaga v. Arizona -2||84-80||Loss||-108||11 h 27 m||Show|
15* Gonzaga/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2
I’ll side with the home team laying the short number in this Top 25 matchup. The Arizona Wildcats are 10-1 this season, including 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 30.2 points per game at home this season.
Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season. They did win both, but those were against Washington and Texas A&M. They lost by 18 to Michigan on a neutral and only beat Oregon by 1. I think this is the toughest test for the Bulldogs yet as it’s the only game they haven’t been favored in. Arizona is favored for good reason here.
The Wildcats are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points. Roll with Arizona Saturday.