15* CBB Friday Sweet 16 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Auburn OVER 151

Michigan really profiles as an OVER team.  The Wolverines rank 58th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank 324th in turnover rate, committing turnovers on 20% of their possessions to create easy scoring opportunities for their opponents.

Auburn also likes to play with pace ranking 146th in adjusted tempo and 132nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Tigers do everything under control and get good looks each time down the court, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense.

Michigan went for 170 combined points with Texas A&M last game despite neither team shooting well from the floor, especially the Aggies who shot 38% from the floor and 26% from 3.  Auburn went for 152 combined points with Creighton against a Bluejays team that likes to play at a much slower tempo than Michigan does.

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in its last 16 games with 152 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 239.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 6th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games overall with 244 or more combined points four times.  The OVER is 2-0 in Jazz last two games including 243 combined points with Memphis.  The Jazz and Nuggets combined for 253 points in their most recent meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -14.5

The Golden State Warriors are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall and motivated to avoid the play-in in the West.  They are also motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season at Miami.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are tanking right now.  They have recent losses to the Rockets by 29, the Magic by 20, the Pistons by 46 and the Timberwolves by 41.  And now they have decided to rest McCollum and Williamson, which means they will be without six of their top seven scorers tonight.  What a mess.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas Rangers ML +101

I like the value we are getting on the Texas Rangers as home underdogs to the Boston Red Sox tonight.  The Rangers will be motivated to get that first victory after losing Game 1 to the Red Sox last night.

Tanner Houck is getting way too much respect for the Red Sox tonight.  He had a terrible spring with a 11.20 ERA and 2.49 WHIP while allowing 17 earned runs and 34 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.

Jack Leiter earned the No. 2 spot in the Texas rotation with a fantastic spring.  He posted a 3.48 ERA while allowing just 8 earned runs and one homer in 20 2/3 innings with 21 K's in spring training.

I also like this Texas lineup much more than this Boston lineup this season.  I think the addition of Alex Bregman for the Red Sox wasn't a good one as he is past his prime and on the decline.  I love this young Texas lineup as it's one of the deepest lineups in the league led by Semien, Seager, Langford, Garcia, Jung, Burger and Pederson.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -11.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in seven of their last eight games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers have surrounded that loss to the Thunder with six blowout wins in their last seven games.  They beat the Knicks by 13, Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, while also crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 4rd game in 9 days and just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Brooklyn Nets look to have thrown in the towel and are in full blown tank mode.  They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in.  The last two losses were very concerning and showed their lack of effort, losing by 19 at home to the Mavericks as 3-point dogs and then by 30 at home to the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  It won't go any better for them tonight against a surging, motivated Los Angeles team.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -5.5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Quickley, Poeltl and Barnes all expected to suit up.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly in tank mode.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall including four games where they weren't even competitive losing by 35 to the Clippers, 32 to the Hawks, 35 to the Thunder and 17 to the Heat.  They have elected to rest their best player in La'Melo Ball tonight as well.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4

Tennessee lost both meetings to Kentucky during the regular season.  The ultimate revenge would be to knock out the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect the Vols to get their revenge in blowout fashion today.

The shooting in the first two meetings was very fluky and heavily in Kentucky's favor.  While Tennessee went 14-of-63 (22.2%) from 3-point range in the two meetings, Kentucky remarkably went 24-of-48 (50%) from 3-point range.  That was the difference.  Jax Robinson had 17 points on 4-of-9 from 3 in one of the meetings, and the Wildcats are now without Robinson and much less potent offensively.

Let's also look at this from a line value perspective.  Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite at home and a 4-point favorite on the road in the first two meetings.  Now the Vols are a 4-point favorite on a neutral, which is too big of an adjustment in Kentucky's favor.  The value is clearly on the Vols tonight.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Baltimore Orioles blasted the Toronto Blue Jays 12-2 yesterday for 14 combined runs.  The Orioles boast one of the best lineups in baseball, and there's a lot to like about this Toronto lineup as well with Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Santander and Springer leading the way.

Two starters that are past their prime are starting in the No. 2 spots for these respective teams today.  Both Charlie Morton and Kevin Gausman are no longer top-end starters, but they are forced to be for these teams.

Morton is 41 years old now and went 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP for the Braves last season.  Gausman is 34 years old and went 14-11 with a 3.83 ERA for the Blue Jays last season.  I'll trust both of these young, upstart offenses to get the better of these veteran pitchers and suspect bullpens tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Arizona/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 153

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 151 combined points with their opponents in seven of those 10 games.

Arizona really profiles as an OVER team ranking 49th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offense.  The Wildcats have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Wildcats, who went for 170 combined points with Oregon last game.  

Arizona has scored at least 83 points in seven of its last 10 games.  Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 11 games in which Flagg has started.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall largely due to how well they are playing offensively, scoring 111 or more points in all 10 games and 121 or more six times.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games with 144 or more combined points in all four games.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

The Lakers are still a pretty good offensive team, and they have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall. That includes their 146-115 loss to the Bulls less than a week ago that saw 261 combined points.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in this series.  It should be yet another shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 8-2 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot coming in on two days' rest after last beating the Nuggets on Monday.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers will now be playing another 2nd of a back-to-back after a narrow 120-119 win in Indiana last night.  It will be their 10th game in 15 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Heat OVER 227

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hawks last five games overall going for 235 or more combined points in all five games.  That includes games against Brooklyn, Charlotte and Houston, which are three dead nuts under teams that play slow.

Miami fits the profile of a dead nuts under team that also plays slow.  But the books have adjusted this total down too much for it.  This total of 227 is too low for a game involving Atlanta.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 228 or more combined points in three of the four.  That includes 240 combined points in their most recent meeting on February 26th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Maryland/Florida West Region ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +6.5

Maryland is 27-8 this season with all eight losses coming by 6 points or less.  So they haven't lost a single game all season by more than 6 points, making for a 35-0 system backing the Terrapins pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.

The Terrapins finally got some good fortune to go their way in close games with a buzzer-beater 72-71 win over Colorado State.  I think the betting public is looking at that as a poor result, but I've been riding Colorado State this entire time during their 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS run to close out the season.  The Rams are much better than they get credit for.

The more concerning result was Florida escaping with a 77-75 win over UConn as 9-point favorites last round.  The Gators failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games, and you're paying a tax to back them still after winning the SEC Tournament.

I like the fact that Maryland played in Seattle last round and decided to stay out West instead of flying back to Baltimore.  The Terrapins have had some bonding time in San Francisco prior to this game.  The tougher travel spot is Florida, which played in North Carolina on Sunday and now has to fly clear out West to San Francisco for this one.  That's a lot of travel in a short amount of time, and I don't think the Gators will be nearly as fresh or prepared as the Terrapins will be tonight as a result.  Bet Maryland Thursday.

25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on BYU/Alabama OVER 173

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in BYU.  The Cougars rank 9th in adjusted offense and 6th in effective FG percentage.  They rank 21st in 3-point rate shooting 3-pointers on 48% of their possessions.  Alabama ranks 49th in that same category hoisting 3-pointers on 46% of possessions.  So there will be a ton of long rebounds and opportunities for both teams to run.

BYU has scored at least 80 points in nine of its last 11 games, including 91 or more points in five of its last 10 games with the OVER going 8-2 in those 10 games.  Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 16 of its last 18 games, including 90 or more in 11 of those 18 games.  I think Alabama pushed 100 in this game and BYU keeps up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* 2025 MLB Season Opener on New York Mets +115

The New York Mets are loaded this season.  They added Juan Soto to a lineup that already includes Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso.  I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Houston Astros, who lost both Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason.

Clay Holmes is one of the more underrated starters in baseball and coming off an impressive spring.  He went 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in the spring, allowing just 2 earned runs and 7 hits in 19 1/3 innings with 23 K's.

Framber Valdez is on the decline for the Astros.  He posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in the spring with 10 walks and 2 homers allowed in 15 2/3 innings.  He's a guy that consistently gets to much respect as the ace of the Astros.  Bet the Mets Thursday.

15* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bulls, upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs, and beat the Bucks by 2 at home.

The Suns are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  You could see how much their win against the Bucks meant to them with Kevin Durant hugging all his teammates after.  I just like the way this team is playing right now, and no question they'll be up for this game with the defending champs coming to town.

The Celtics lost their best player in Jayson Tatum to an ankle injury last game and is doubtful for this game and will likely miss at least a few games.  Boston will now be playing its 4th road game in 6 days.  The Celtics have questionable motivation right now as they are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  I don't think they should be favorite on the road over the surging Suns without Tatum.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Lakers just got LeBron James back from injury and are one of the best offensive teams in the league with James, Doncic and Reeves running the show.  The problem is their defensive warts have really shown of late.

The OVER is 7-2 in Lakers last nine games overall.  They have allowed 118 points or more in five of their last eight games.  They gave up 146 to the Bulls the other night in James' first game back from injury.

It won't get any easier for them against the Pacers, who recently got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury and are at full strength right now.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace and 9th in offensive rating.

The Pacers and Lakers have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last nine meetings.  That includes a 124-117 win by the Lakers for 241 combined points in their 1st meeting this season on February 8th.  James and Doncic both did not play in that meeting.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers ML -122

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six of their last seven games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers were coming off off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and coming in on two days' rest.

A big reason I'm fading the Knicks is because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Mavericks last night, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back themselves.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks.  

They are without their top two PG's in Brunson and McBride, and I just don't trust them that much until Brunson returns.  The Knicks are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State ML -135

Illinois State has a sneaky rest advantage over Cleveland State.  Not only were they off from March 7th until March 23rd, but the Redbirds also got a day in between their 78-70 win over Presbyterian as 5-point favorites on Sunday and their 78-73 win over Incarnate Word as 6.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

I don't think the Redbirds are tired at all, and if anything they have shaken off the rust of being off for over two weeks and will be better off for it playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Meanwhile, Cleveland State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after beating Queens-Charlotte 88-73 on Monday and Florida Gulf Coast 72-65 on Tuesday.  Not to mention, the Redbirds got to play the early game last night while the Vikings had to play the late game, which only adds to the rest advantage for Illinois State especially with an early 5:00 EST tip tonight.

Illinois State is far and away the superior offensive team in this matchup.  The Redbirds rank 87th in adjusted offense and 18th in effective FG percentage.  The Vikings rank just 213th in adjusted offense and 246th in effective FG percentage.

The Vikings rely on forcing turnovers (9th, 22.2%) and grabbing offensive rebounds (44th, 34.6%).  Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Redbirds.  Illinois State ranks 90th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 15.9% of possessions.  Better yet, the Redbirds rank 11th in the country allowing offensive rebounds on only 24.9% of opponent possessions.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 3 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-12 SU & 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 6th game in 13 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the East's No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now.

The Cavaliers are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East.  They are playing like it going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against tanking Utah.  Now the Cavaliers have elected to rest Donovan Mitchell playing their 5th road game in 8 days.

Portland wants revenge from a 133-129 (OT) loss at Cleveland on March 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Blazers blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter in that game.  The Cavs were without Mitchell in that one as well, and the Blazers can hang with the Cavs without Mitchell as they have proven once already.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* North Texas/Oklahoma State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

Oklahoma State quietly has one of the better home-court advantages in the country this season.  The Cowboys have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games wit their only losses coming to Arizona and Texas Tech.  They upset Iowa State and Cincinnati during this stretch.

The Cowboys have been impressive in the NIT thus far crushing Wichita State 89-79 at home and upsetting SMU as 8.5-point road dogs.  That win over Wichita State is significant here because it gives them a common opponent with North Texas, who played the Shockers twice in AAC play.

North Texas only beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 4 on the road in their two meetings this season.  The Mean Green have a great home-court advantage and used it with lackluster wins by 11 over Furman and by 2 over Arkansas State to get here.  But now the Mean Green are on the road where they aren't nearly as dominant.

The Big 12 is much stronger than the AAC and I'll gladly side with the Big 12 team here at a PK when I believe the Cowboys should be favored.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Rockets OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall going for 236 or more combined points in all four games.  That includes game against Brooklyn and Charlotte, which are two dead nuts under teams.

The Houston Rockets are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous offensive team when that's the case.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Hawks tonight.

The Hawks and Rockets have combined for at least 235 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +8.5

The Atlanta Hawks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall to try and improve their playoff positioning.

The Houston Rockets are also playing well, but they just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 116-111 upset home loss to the Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokic last time out.  I always like fading teams after having an extending winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect.

It's not like the Rockets are blowing anyone out, either.  Each of their last four wins have come by 8 points or fewer and against suspect competition in the Bulls, 76ers, Magic and Heat.  This is a step up in class for the Rockets tonight against a surging Atlanta team.  

The Hawks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rockets.  All three losses came by 6 points or fewer.  In fact, the Hawks haven't lost by more than 7 points to the Rockets in any of their last 10 meetings, making for a 10-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Incarnate Word OVER 148

Illinois State has been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Redbirds are 20-13 OVER in all games.  They rank 84th in adjusted offense and 15th in effective FG percentage, so they are elite offensively.  The problem is defense, where the Redbirds rank 237th in adjusted defense and 306th in effective FG percentage defense.

Incarnate Word profiles similarly where the Cardinals are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Cardinals rank 151st in adjusted offense and 121st in effective FG percentage offensively, while ranking just 294th in adjusted defense and 239th in effective FG percentage defensively.

Both teams are a combined 3-0 OVER in this CBI Tournament.  Illinois State went for 148 combined points with Presbyterian with a 142.5-point total.  Incarnate Word sailed OVER the total in its first two games going for 177 combined points with Manhattan with a 147.5-point total and 158 combined points with Jacksonville with a 142-point total.  It will be more of the same here tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Bucks/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bucks and upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out.

The Suns have now had the last two days off to rest, recover and get healthy.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  I expect a big effort from the Suns laying the short number here tonight.

The Bucks have had two easy games in their last two due to injuries to their opponents.  The Lakers rested everyone when they beat them, and the Kings were without two starters in Monk and Sabonis.  So the Bucks have been able to get by without Damian Lillard, who they will be without again tonight.  

I don't expect it to go nearly as easy for them against this motivated, rested Suns team tonight.  The Bucks will be playing their 10th game in 17 days and their 4th consecutive road game.  This is a great spot to back the short home favorite.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 7-2 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Now I fully expect them to upset the short-handed, tired Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-111 upset win in Houston last night.

Now the Nuggets will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 10th game in 16 days.  It's no wonder they are struggling right now going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are without their best player in Nikola Jokic, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rest some more guys tonight after Murray played 38 minutes, Gordon 37, Braun 34 and Porter Jr. 32 last night.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks ML -125

The Dallas Mavericks are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the final play-in spot in the West.  They are desperate for wins right now, and highly motivated to make the playoffs with the prospects that Anthony Davis could possibly return tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.  At the very least he should be back soon, which gives them hope.

The Mavericks have been much more competitive in their last two games even without Davis, and likely due to the return of a healthy PJ Washington.  They led the Pacers by 7 in the final minute before blowing it to lose 135-131 as 10.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, March 19th.  They bounced back with a 123-117 win as 9.5-point home dogs to the Detroit Pistons on Friday.

Now the Mavericks have had the last two days off so they are rested and ready to go.  While they have a lot to play for, the Brooklyn Nets have nothing to play for but pride here down the stretch.  And I think this is a terrible spot for the Nets, who will be without their floor general in De'Angelo Russell tonight.

But the reason it looks like a bad spot is that they were just in three straight dog fights on the road to the Pacers (twice) and the Celtics.  They only lost those three games by a combined 19 points.  I was on the Nets in those games because they were catching a ton of points.  Now they have to win this game to beat us, and I don't think they'll be able to do it.  They return home from that road trip, and they are a very tired team playing their 9th game in 15 days.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Monday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.  They are coming off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.

The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Now they want to show the top seed in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder that they are for real.  No question the Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Thunder are going to struggle to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked into the No. 1 seed in the West sitting 12.5 games ahead of 2nd place Houston.  They have decided to rest players at times because of it, and tonight they will be without Jalen Williams and possibly Lu Dort, who are their two best defenders.  Life will be much easier on Khawi and Harden without these two.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Clippers OVER 226.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.  The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.

Now they play another dead nuts OVER team in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 8th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall despite resting some guys during this stretch.  They may be without two of their best defenders tonight as Jalen Williams is for sure out, and Lu Dort is questionable.

The Clippers and Thunder have combined for at least 232 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* UAB/Santa Clara NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 165.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Jacksonville State/UC-Irvine NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 138.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

15* Sunday Round of 32 Total DOMINATOR on Ole Miss/Iowa State UNDER 146

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) will hurt Iowa State.  The Cyclones were able to get by Lipscomb 82-55 for just 137 combined points without Gilbert in their opener.  They shot 58.3% as a team and it still stays UNDER the 144-point total.  Nothing will come easy against this elite Ole Miss defense today.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64 for just 135 combined points, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.

Ole Miss ranks 20th in adjusted defense while Iowa State ranks 8th.  So these are two of the top defensive teams in the country.  Nothing will come easy for either team today, and the UNDER looks like a great bet as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

15* Arkansas State/North Texas NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 136

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Alabama East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 149

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 149 is so low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Better yet, the Crimson Tide and their opponents have gone for at least 153 combined points in 17 consecutive games, making for a 17-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 149-point total.

Yes, St. Mary's plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  But Alabama plays its game no matter the opponent, and it's St. Mary's that is going to have to change its style a little to match just how potent the Crimson Tide are offensively.  I think Alabama is overrated defensively, so St. Mary's will have plenty of offensive success as well.  Alabama allowed 81 points to Robert Morris last round and has allowed 81 or more points in four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Hawks OVER 239

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing a lot of youngsters right now and are all offense and no defense.  They rank 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have scored at least 120 points in five of their last eight games overall.

The Atlanta Hawks have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  They have added some firepower off the bench during before the trade deadline in LeVert, Niang and Mann that has made them even more of an OVER team.  The Hawks have scored at least 119 points in nine of their last 11 games.

The Hawks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games despite playing two dead nuts under teams in Brooklyn and Charlotte, plus playing the Warriors who were without Steph Curry.  Now they face another OVER team here in the 76ers, and the result should be an absolute shootout.

The Hawks won 132-123 for 255 combined points in their last meeting on March 10th two weeks ago.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 239 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-11 SU & 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the defending champion Boston Celtics, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now, and one that is also banged up.

The Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are 5 games behind the Cavaliers for 1st place and 7 games ahead of the Knicks in 3rd place with just 12 games remaining.  Their biggest focus right now is to get guys healthy going into the playoffs, not winning games.

That has been evident with their play of late going 2-4 ATS in their last six games with some very concerning results.  They only beat Utah by 6 as 15.5-point favorites, lost outright at home to the Thunder, only beat the Nets by 2 as 11.5-point favorites and beat the Nets again by 8 as 14-point favorites.  They are without Jaylen Brown, and Tatum, Holiday and Porzingis are all questionable to play tonight.  They should not be 7.5-point road favorites as a result.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/SMU OVER 155.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is my favorite OVER in NIT play this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +9.5

The ACC was the most overrated conference in the country and it has played out in the NCAA Tournament with upset losses by Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.  Only Duke remains in the NCAA Tournament as Sunday's Round of 32.

I'll gladly fade ACC opponent SMU today laying a big number against a Big 12 foe in Oklahoma State.  Asking the Mustangs to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

SMU was life and death with Northern Iowa in the final minutes before pulling away late for a 10-point victory.  Oklahoma State will present a much tougher, more athletic opponent today.  The Cowboys put away what was previously a red hot Wichita State team 89-79 in their NIT opener.

The Big 12 clearly looks dominant going 9-1 SU in the NCAA Tournament thus far heading into Sunday's Round of 32.  I'll trust the Cowboys after playing the much tougher schedule this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

15* Baylor/Duke East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 143.5

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 142 combined points with their opponents in all nine games.

Baylor is going to be forced to try and pick up the tempo to keep up with Duke today.  The Bears are coming off a 75-72 win over Mississippi State for 147 combined points.  Baylor has some of the best guards in the country, but they are limited inside due to injuries to their most important defenders down low.  

Norchad Omier (15.8 PPG) is a great offensive big man but he doesn't have much help defensively, so the Blue Devils should score at will in the paint against him as he tries to avoid foul trouble.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  The OVER is 3-1 in Bulls last four games overall as they are coming off 248 combined points with Phoenix and 242 combined points with Sacramento.

The Los Angeles Lakers really profile as an OVER team since trading for Luka Doncic, once of the best scorers in the NBA but also one of the worst defenders.  We have seen that come to fruition with the Lakers going 4-1 OVER in the last five games in which Doncic has played.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in the last nine meetings between the Lakers and Bulls.  Los Angeles beat Chicago 141-132 for 273 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +10

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They should be able to hang with the Lakers, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now with eight players on the injury report including questionable tags on both LeBron James and Rui Hachimura.  

The Lakers are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and consistently getting too much respect.  They are also a tired team playing their 7th game in 10 days coming off three consecutive back-to-backs.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +8.5

Drake is 31-3 this season with all 3 losses by 7 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, making for a 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  They drug Missouri into the mud on Thursday and forced the Tigers to play their game even though Missouri likes to play up-tempo.  Drake won 67-57 as 6-point underdogs despite a huge FT discrepancy in favor of Missouri.  The Tigers went 23-of-26 from the FT line while the Bulldogs went just 12-of-24.

I am a big fan of Texas Tech when the Red Raiders are fully healthy, but that's just not the case right now.  Two of their top three players are banged up.  Darion Williams (13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) returned from injury against UNC-Wilmington and went just 5-of-15 from the floor.  He still looked hobbled.  Chance McMillian (13.7 PPG, 43.4% 3-pointers) did not return and they desperately miss his shooting and scoring.

I was not impressed with Texas Tech on Thursday beating UNC-Wilmington 82-72 as 15-point favorites.  Wilmington only shot 7-of-26 (27%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 10.  I expect the Red Raiders to be life and death in the final seconds with Drake in this one whether or not McMillian returns.  Bet Drake Saturday.

20* Michigan/Texas A&M East Region No-Brainer on Texas A&M ML -125

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games despite a -17 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and had the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  The are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament after winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego on Thursday.  They clearly had the refs and shooting on their side.  UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

This is where the luck runs out for the Wolverines.  Michigan ranks just 330th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 269th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.

Texas A&M just out-works everyone.  The Aggies rank 54th in country forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of opponent possessions, so this a terrible matchup for the Wolverines.  Texas A&M ranks 1st in offensive rebound rate grabbing 41.7% of its own misses.  Michigan ranks 176th allowing opponents to get offensive rebounds on 30% of their misses.  The Aggies are 9th in adjusted defense despite playing in the most offensive-friendly conference in the country in the SEC.  Turnovers and offensive rebounds will be the difference as the Aggies show they want it more.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Nets and Pacers.  The Pacers won 104-99 (OT) as 8-point favorites on Thursday.  Now the Pacers are 10-point favorites in the rematch, and I don't agree with the move towards them.

I always like taking the team that lost the 1st meeting in these 2nd in 3 days scenarios.  They are always the more motivated team, and they tend to get revenge or at the very least get the cover.

The Nets continue to show up every night despite their position in the Eastern Conference standings.  They gave the Celtics all they could handle twice in their last four games losing by 2 and 8 points, and they upset Atlanta as 6.5-point dogs in the game in between.  

The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games also losing to the Cavs by just 5 as 15-point dogs.  They also upset the Lakers and lost by 2 to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 8 points despite a brutal schedule with eight of those nine games against teams currently in the playoffs.

The Pacers are a tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Nets will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  De'Angelo Russell will sit this game, but they do get back Cam Johnson to make up for it after Johnson didn't play in that 1st meeting with the Pacers.  Indiana will likely sit Tyrese Haliburton again.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Pacers UNDER 220

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Nets and Pacers.  The Pacers won 105-99 (OT) on Thursday in a game that saw just 182 combined points at the end of regulation.  So we have 38 points to spare with this 220-point total in the rematch.

There's a good chance Tyrese Haliburton is out again for the Pacers.  Well, now the Nets are going to sit De'Angelo Russell.  So both teams could be without their floor generals for this one, which will throw both offenses off.

The Nets already rank dead last (30th) in pace and will play even slower without Russell.  They also rank 27th in offensive rating, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nets are 40-30 UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 212 or fewer combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/St. John's Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -6.5

St. John's is 31-4 SU & 23-11 ATS this season and still one of the most underrated teams in the country. All four losses came by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 7 points, which shows just how close the Red Storm are to being 35-0.

St. John's is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch going 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Red Storm have put together four straight wins by 16 points or more which includes wins over Creighton and Marquette.

The strength of the Red Storm is defense as they rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They make you work for everything you get, and they suffocate teams in the 2H consistently running out of gas after intermission.  They make for a great tournament team because they are so difficult to prepare for.

John Calipari only has one day to prepare for St. John's, and I don't expect it to go well for him.  Rick Pitino is far and away the superior head coach here.  Arkansas has been fortunate in close games there of late with five of its last six wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  This is where their luck runs out.

Arkansas is without one of its best players in Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG) and he will be missed here.  We saw Kansas go zone on Arkansas in the 2H and they didn't know what they were doing against it.  I think Pitino will pull all the right strings here to make life difficult on the Razorbacks.

St. John's forced turnovers on 22% of opponents' possessions which ranks 22nd in the country.  Arkansas is prone to turning it over ranking 135th in turnover percentage.  The Red Storm will want it more here and win most of the loose balls while pulling away in the 2H once again.  They will also have a big home-court advantage with this game being played in Providence.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in five consecutive games.  Now they play a Memphis Grizzlies team that hasn't played a lick of defense for weeks.

The Grizzlies are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall largely due to poor defense.  They have allowed 127 or more points in eight of those 17 games.  They are also without Ja Morant right now.

Memphis is also a tired team playing its 13th game in 22 days.  The Grizzlies haven't had two days off in a row since February.  Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher, healthier team tonight as a result.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in five consecutive games.  Now they play a Memphis Grizzlies team that hasn't played a lick of defense for weeks.  They have allowed 127 or more points in eight of those 17 games.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace.  They play fast with or without Ja Morant.  The OVER is 39-29-2 in all Grizzlies games this season.  They have combined for 237 or more points with their opponents in four of their last six games overall.

The Clippers are more of an OVER team now due to their improvement offensively.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games with 236 or more combined points four times during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Liberty/Oregon East Region No-Brainer on Oregon -5.5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 16-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  Oregon is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the Round of 64.  Altmann always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have won 8 of their last 9 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon played the 19th-toughest schedule in the country this season while Liberty played the 198th-ranked schedule.  The Flames only played one NCAA Tournament team all season, which was McNeese State from the Southland.  They are a good shooting team, but I think they are getting too much respect here.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene and I expect the Ducks to have plenty of support there.  Bet Oregon Friday.

15* Nuggets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland ML -120

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 18-11 SU & 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the Denver Nuggets, a very tired team that will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.

That fatigue has really started to show down the stretch as the Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and the injuries are really starting to pile up.  They will be without Nikola Jokic tonight, Jamaal Murray is questionable, and Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are both dealing with nagging injuries.  Bet the Blazers on the Money Line Friday.

20* Xavier/Illinois South Region No-Brainer on OVER 158.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 18th in adjusted tempo, 15th in adjusted offense and 41st in adjusted defense.  They let opponents get shots up quickly as they rank 8th in average length of defensive possession at just 16.5 seconds per possession.

Illinois has allowed at least 78 points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  The Fighting Illini are 15-7-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall.  They have combined for at least 161 points with their opponents in seven of their last 10 games.

Xavier profiles as an OVER team as well ranking 76th in adjusted tempo and 49th in average length of offensive possession.  The Musketeers are a tough offense to tame scoring at least 76 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 11-3 in Musketeers' last 14 games overall with 166 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Xavier +3.5

Since the First 4 started in 2011, 13 teams from the First 4 have advanced to the Round of 32.  At least one team has won a Round of 64 game in 12 of the last 14 years.  Xavier looks to be the most promising team to make a run if it's not UNC.

Xavier is playing as well as anyone in the Big East outside of St. John's here down the stretch to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming by 2 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Creighton by 22 at home during this stretch.

I don't understand why Illinois continues to get so much respect.  The Fighting Illini are 8-8 SU & 7-8-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They only beat three NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch and two of those came at home.  

They lost by 23 to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, by 43 to Duke on a neutral, by 14 to Michigan State at home, by 21 to Maryland at home and by 21 to Wisconsin on the road.  They also were upset by Nebraska, USC and Rutgers during this stretch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Xavier Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +14

The Boston Celtics are struggling to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed, trailing the Cavs by 6 games but 7 games ahead of 3rd-place New York.

The Celtics have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have two lackluster wins over the lowly Nets by 8 as 13.5-point favorites and by 2 as 11-point favorites.  They also only beat the Jazz by 6 as 16-point home favorites on March 10th.

Now it's the Jazz out for revenge and catching 14 points at home in the rematch here less than two weeks later.  The Jazz have gone 11-7 ATS in their last 18 games overall despite being without several key players along the way.  Despite the belief they are tanking, they continue to show up most nights, and they'll certainly show up for the defending champs tonight.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* Oklahoma/UConn East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 147.5

The UConn Huskies aren't the team they were the last couple seasons when they won the NCAA Tournament.  They are elite offensively, but this is perhaps the worst defensive team of the Dan Hurley era.  The Huskies rank 14th in adjusted offense but just 95th in adjusted defense.

They face an Oklahoma Sooners team that has really changed philosophy this season under Porter Moser to play more up-tempo.  The Sooners are a dead nuts OVER team as a result, ranking 107th in adjusted tempo, 66th in average length of offensive possession, 22nd in adjusted offense and just 70th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 6-1 in Oklahoma's last seven games overall with 148 or more combined points in all seven games, so this total of 147.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Sooners right now.  They combined for 169 with Kentucky, 156 with Georgia, 180 with Missouri, 171 with Ole Miss, 165 with Kentucky and 180 with Mississippi State during this stretch.  

Oklahoma ranks 29th in free throw rate on offense and 254th in free throw rate on defense, so they foul a lot and get fouled a lot.  UConn fouls even more, ranking 333rd in free throw rate defensively.  They just don't have guys on the perimeter that can move their feet and stay in front of opponents this season.  Both teams will get to the FT line a lot, which will help us cash this OVER ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -13.5

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after a shocking 119-115 home loss as identical 13.5-point favorites to the Pelicans on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Pelicans again.

Zion Williamson had 29 points and 8 assists in that first meeting.  Well, Williamson has been ruled out, leaving an already injury-ravaged Pelicans team even worse off heading into this one.  The Timberwolves are fully healthy.

New Orleans shot 53% as a team and 13-of-29 (45%) from 3-point range in that first meeting, so they are due some negative shooting regression.  The Timberwolves shot just 45% as a team and are due some positive shooting regression against a terrible Pelicans defense that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Spurs OVER 236.5

The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall while ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points with their opponents in 10 of those 11 games.

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games with 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  They rank 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.

Both teams have a lot of youngsters playing right now that are just trying to make a name for themselves, especially the 76ers.  Both are having fun and playing freely knowing they are eliminated from playoff contention.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Marquette -3.5

The Mountain West is now 26-55 ATS in their last 81 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out 95-68 by North Carolina on Tuesday and Utah State got blown out 72-47 by UCLA on Thursday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade New Mexico tonight.

The Lobos struggled down the stretch going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  THat includes two losses to Boise State and a 8-point loss to that same San Diego State team that got blown out by UNC.  They also narrowly escaped with a pair of 4-point wins over Wyoming and Nevada, two of the poor teams in the Mountain West.  And earlier this season they lost by 14 to St. John's, a fellow Big East opponent of Marquette.

I think the Golden Eagles come into the NCAA Tournament a little undervalued after losing three of their final four games including two losses to St. John's.  The other loss came on the road to UConn, while they also beat Xavier in the Big East Tournament, which was the only loss Xavier has suffered in its last nine games playing as well as anyone in the Big East.

Marquette is a very balanced team with very few weaknesses.  The Golden Eagles rank 31st in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  And while New Mexico is a solid defensive team, there is a glaring weakness for the Lobos on the other end as they rank just 85th in adjusted offense.  There will also be bit of a home-court advantage for Marquette with this game being played in Cleveland, Ohio.  Bet Marquette Friday.

20* Colorado State/Memphis West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State ML -130

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country was more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all 10 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 10 games by a total of 122 points, or by an average of 12.2 points per game.

Memphis has been pretty fortunate here down the stretch winning four of its last six games by 7 points or fewer, including a 1-point win over Tulane and a 3-point win over Wichita State in the AAC Tournament.  Give Memphis credit for rallying in the title game without their leader in Tyrese Hunter to beat UAB.

Hunter hasn't been officially ruled out, but he was in a walking boot for that UAB game, and even if he plays he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Penny Hardaway has just one NCAA Tournament win in his three years at Memphis.  We are definitely getting the better head coach in Niko Medved and the healthier team playing the better basketball right now.  This 12-seed is favored over the 5-seed for good reason here.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

25* Round of 64 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Robert Morris/Alabama OVER 165.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 165.5 is actually low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, making for a 10-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 165.5-point total.

Robert Morris is a pretty athletic team that won't mind getting up and down with Alabama.  The Colonials rank 140th in adjusted tempo, and they rank 39th in average length of defensive possession, so they allow their opponents to get up shots quickly.  They haven't seen anything like Alabama.

These are also two teams that get to the FT line a lot.  Alabama ranks 25th in free throw rate while Robert Morris ranks 41st.  Both also shoot the 3-pointer well as both are right at 35%.  Robert Morris has scored at least 79 points in four consecutive games to close out the season.  I think they can do enough to contribute to this total, while Alabama pushes 100 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Bucks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee -2.5

This is a brutal spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight.  They got revenge on the Nuggets for their last loss last night, and they are feeling fat and happy now heading into this game against Milwaukee.

That was a Nuggets team that was missing their two best players in Jokic and Murray.  Now it's the Lakers that could be missing their two best players.  LeBron James remains out, and Luka Doncic has been sitting on back-to-backs since coming to the Lakers.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he sits tonight, and I like the Bucks either way.

While the Lakers are tired, fat and happy off three straight wins, the Bucks are rested and pissed off following two consecutive losses to the Thunder and Warriors, two teams playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  The Bucks also beat the Lakers 126-106 at home in their first meeting this season.  Doncic had 45 points and the Lakers still lost by 20!  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-San Diego +3.5

UC-San Diego won 30 games this season.  They are the best mid-major in the country outside of perhaps VCU.  I don't think they could have gotten a better 1st-round matchup than Michigan.

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines went 11-4 SU in their last 15 games despite a -20 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and now have the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  They are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament.

The best part of UC-San Diego is turnovers, as they are 7th in turnover rate on offense and 2nd in turnover rate on defense with the best turnover differential in the entire country.  Michigan ranks just 328th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 265th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -5.5

The Mountain West is now 26-54 ATS in their last 80 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out by North Carolina on Tuesday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade Utah State Thursday night.

Utah State struggled away from home down the stretch going 2-6 ATS in its final eight road games.  That includes a 27-point loss at Colorado State and a 17-point loss at Boise State in their final two.  They also lost to Colorado State by 11 in the MWC Tournament.  Key role player Drake Allen (7.2 PPG) who is their top bench player is out for the season.

UCLA will benefited from playing in the Big Ten this season and playing a much more difficult schedule than they were used to in the Pac-12 before.  The Bruins are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are the much better defensive team, and their physicality will give this soft Utah State team fits for 40 minutes.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +6.5

The Missouri Tigers are one of the more vulnerable teams from the SEC.  They are limping into the NCAA Tournament going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their best player in Mark Mitchell is banged up as well.  Head coach Dennis Gates has just one NCAA Tournament win to his name.

Drake went 30-3 this season with the three losses coming by a combined 13 points.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  I think that will frustrate Missouri, which prefers to play a more up-tempo game.  

One big advantage for the Bulldogs is that they rank 17th in offensive rebounding rate grabbing 36% of their own misses.  Missouri ranks 300th allowing opponents to grab 32.2% of their misses.  That could easily be the difference in this game.  I trust McCollum over Gates to make the necessary adjustments, and I have the Bulldogs pulling off the upset here.  Bet Drake Thursday.

20* Arkansas/Kansas West Region No-Brainer on Arkansas +5.5

Arkansas really showed off its depth down the stretch without two of its best players in Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero who combined to average over 30 points per game.  This was actually one of John Calipari's better coaching jobs.

Arkansas went 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Razorbacks won three of their final four games with their lone loss coming to Ole Miss by 3 in the SEC Tournament.  Ole Miss was coming off a bye and had the rest advantage after Arkansas beat South Carolina the previous day.  Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.5 SPG) is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, so reinforcements are on the way.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the country right alongside Michigan.  The Jayhawks went just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games.  They needed OT to beat UCF twice.  They have just one win against a NCAA Tournament team in their last 11 games.  I don't even think they should be favored here.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Pacers erased a 7-point deficit in the final minute last night to beat the Mavericks 135-131.  Now they are tired, fat and happy after that victory.  Not only will the Pacers be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back but they will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  They are running on fumes right now.

The Brooklyn Nets continue to show up every night despite their position in the Eastern Conference standings.  They gave the Celtics all they could handle twice in their last three games losing by 2 and 8 points, and they upset Atlanta as 6.5-point dogs in the game in between.  

The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games also losing to the Cavs by just 5 as 15-point dogs.  They also upset the Lakers and lost by 2 to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 8 points despite a brutal schedule with seven of those eight games against teams currently in the playoffs.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* Creighton/Louisville South Region No-Brainer on Louisville ML -125

Let's start with the fact that this will essentially be a home game for Louisville being played in Lexington, Kentucky.  That's the least the committee could do for the Cardinals after grossly under-seeding them with an 8th seed.

Louisville went 27-7 this season with six of the seven losses coming to NCAA Tournament teams.  Four of the losses came to SEC teams in the non-conference which is the best conference in basketball, and two came to Duke, which is the best team in the country.

I'm just not very high on this Creighton team, and I think it's a tough spot for them after playing in a grind in the Big East Tournament.  They needed 2 OT to beat DePaul, managed to get by UConn, then really ran out of gas in the 2H in a 16-point loss to St. John's.  They aren't a very deep team as it is.

Chucky Hepburn is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, and he will make life difficult on Creighton PG Ashworth.  Reyne Smith (13.4 PPG, 38.3%) 3-pointers missed their last five games including the ACC Tournament, but he's expected back for the NCAA Tournament.  He means a lot to them offensively with his ability to stretch the floor as one of their best 3-point shooters.  The Cardinals are the better team and with home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Bet Louisville Thursday.

15* NIT Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +3

San Jose State was one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  The Spartans went 22-9 ATS in all games, including 10-4 ATS in home games.  The only point of the season where they struggled was when they were injured, but they are fully healthy heading into the NIT.

San Jose State has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Spartans beat Fresno State 92-68 as 5.5-point home favorites in their regular season finale.  They went on to beat Wyoming 66-61 as a PK in the first round, and then covered against a rested New Mexico team in the MWC Tournament in a hard-fought 11-point loss as 15.5-point dogs.

Loyola-Chicago is in the worse spot here.  The Ramblers beat Saint Louis in their Atlantic 10 opener before a hard-fought 7-point loss to VCU.  They really felt like they had a chance to win the tournament, so they are disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  Now they have to travel clear out on the West Coast with just three days in between games since losing to VCU.

With a losing record on the season, no question San Jose State is relishing the opportunity to be playing in the NIT.  They get to host a game no less.  The Spartans have had the last five days off so they will have the rest and preparation advantage.  I trust in head coach Tim Miles to get his team ready to go, and I believe the wrong team is favored here.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +6.5

The Chicago Bulls are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 as 8-point dogs at Houston.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in four road games during this stretch with two upset wins at Miami and Orlando.

The Phoenix Suns have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 32-37 SU & 27-41-1 ATS this season.  Now they are without three key players in Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen and Mason Plumlee.  They are getting too much respect tonight as 6.5-point favorites over the Bulls.

Chicago has a big rest advantage as well.  The Bulls will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days, while the Suns will be playing their 7th game in 11 days.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Kings OVER 235

The Cavs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 43-25 OVER in all games this season while ranking 1st in the NBA in offensive rating.  They just went for 251 points with the Clippers in their last game, a Clippers team that profiles as an under team.

The Sacramento Kings are 38-29 OVER in all games this season.  They have been dreadful defensively allowing 122 or more points in four straight games.  But they are hitting on all cylinders on offense, and I think they can keep up with the Cavs in a shootout tonight.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 246, 252 and 247 combined points in the three overs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

Motivation is an issue for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East leading the Celtics by 6.5 games.  They are playing like it too, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with some very concerning results.  

The Cavs were upset by the Magic as 10-point favorites. They only beat Brooklyn by 5 as 15-point favorites, Charlotte by 1 as 16-point favorites and Miami by 5 as 13.5-point favorites.  They are grossly overvalued right now.

The Cavs are coming off a 132-119 road loss as 2.5-point favorites to the Clippers last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and could decide to rest some guys as a result.

The Kings have a big rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 132-122 home win over the Grizzlies in between.  They have a lot to play for trying to hold on to a spot in the play-in leading the Suns by just 3 games.  I expect a big effort from Sacramento tonight.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +5

The Portland Trail Blazers are fighting hard to make the play-in.  They are 3 games behind the Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West, and the Mavericks are tanking in a big way right now so they have a legit shot if they can overtake the Suns as well.

The Blazers have gone 17-11 SU & 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  They are rested and will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA here down the stretch, and it's largely due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  The Grizzlies are 7-9 SU & 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

The Grizzlies are a tired team playing their 12th game in 20 days.  They are without JA Morant, and Aldama and Pippen Jr. are both questionable tonight as well.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers OVER 235

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who suits up for them.  They rank 1st in pace this season and play fast regardless of whether or not JA Morant plays.  They rank 6th in offensive rating this season to boot.

The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against a dead nuts under team in Miami.  They are coming off a 132-122 loss to the Kings for 254 combined points even without Morant, Alabama, Pippen Jr. and Sabonis.

The Blazers have some of the most talented young guards in the NBA and they are really blossoming down the stretch.  The Blazers have scored at least 112 points in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  I expect both teams to go for 120-plus tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Xavier/Texas First Four No-Brainer on Xavier ML -130

The Xavier Musketeers have the benefit of playing this game in Dayton, Ohio in their home state.  They are going to have a massive home-court advantage against Texas due to the venue.  It's less than an hour drive from Cincinnati to Dayton.

Xavier is playing as well as anyone in the Big East outside of St. John's here down the stretch to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming by 2 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Creighton by 22 at home during this stretch.

Texas is fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament after completely falling apart down the stretch.  The Longhorns needed a couple narrow wins in the SEC Tournament just to get here.  They are 5-8 SU & 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

No question Xavier has the coaching edge with Sean Miller over Rodney Terry.  They are the better team, and with home-court advantage they should be bigger favorites in this First Four showdown.  The Musketeers are also the 8th-best FT shooting team in the country.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

20* NIT DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +10.5

Handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  SMU feels like it should be in the NCAA Tournament and is disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  A 3-point loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament cost them a shot at making the NCAA Tournament.  They don't want to be here in the NIT.

Northern Iowa has known it will be going to the NIT since losing to Valparaiso on March 7th.  The Panthers have had nearly two weeks to get over that defeat and prepare for their NIT run.  I love them catching double-digits here as they were one of the most underrated teams in the MVC all season.

SMU went 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS in its final nine games to play its way out of the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset losses to Florida State and Wake Forest that really cost them.  The Mustangs have been poor in their last three home games losing by 11 to Wake Forest, by 10 to Clemson and only beating Syracuse by 2 as 13.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over Northern Iowa tonight.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -13

I like the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They took the short-handed Pacers lightly in their last game and lost 132-130 as 10.5-point favorites.  They won't make that same mistake again tonight after having their 8-game winning streak come to an end with that defeat.

The Timberwolves are fully healthy right now and motivated.  They sit in 7th place in the West and are desperate to get out of the play-in.  They only trail the 6th-place Warriors by 0.5 games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 127-81 home loss to the Detroit Pistons to fall to 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their best player in Trey Murphy (21.2 PPG) got hurt in that game and is now out for the season.  They are extremely short-handed now and unmotivated to finish out the season.  They will get blown out again tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Samford +7.5

The Samford Bulldogs are live underdogs Wednesday night in their NIT opener against George Mason.  This is a Bulldogs team that opened 19-7 before going 3-5 in their final eight games this season.  They were awesome in non-conference play with their only three losses coming against Cornell by 2, Michigan State by 8 and Arizona.  They beat some very good teams in Utah Valley, North Dakota State and North Alabama.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Bulldogs.

But this is as much of a fade of George Mason as anything.  This is a brutal spot for the Patriots.  They just played 3 games in 3 days from Friday through Sunday and lost in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game by 5 to VCU.  Their dreams of making the NCAA Tournament were crushed, and they won't be able to get back up off the mat in time here three days later to get motivated to beat Samford in the NIT consolation.

Meanwhile, Samford has been off since March 8th with 10 days in between games to get ready for this one.  The Bulldogs are happy to be playing in the NIT, and handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  The Patriots don't want to be here at all.  Bet Samford Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Dayton/FAU OVER 150.5

The NIT OVERS have been a great bet over the last couple years.  This is my favorite on the board for Wednesday night.  Dayton is an elite offensive team that ranks 51st in adjusted offense but just 133rd in adjusted defense.

FAU profiles as an OVER team ranking 92nd in adjusted tempo, 49th in average length of offensive possession, 82nd in adjusted offense and just 201st in adjusted defense.  The Owls are coming off a 159-point game with Tulane and recently played a 169-point game with UAB.

Dayton is 7-1-1 OVER in its last nine games overall.  The Flyers and their opponents have combined for at least 153 points in four of their last eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UC-Riverside/Santa Clara OVER 154.5

Santa Clara is a dead nuts OVER team that ranks 88th in adjusted tempo and 49th in adjusted offense.  The Broncos rank 28th in effective FG percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage at 37.7%.  The Broncos can light it up offensively, but they are vulnerable defensively.

They take on a UC-Riverside team that also profiles as an OVER team.  Riverside ranks 106th in adjusted offense but just 215th in adjusted defense.  The Highlanders have been playing in some very high-scoring games here down the stretch, and the same goes for the Broncos.

Riverside is 7-1 OVER in its last eight games overall with 158 or more combined points in four of its last five games, and 149 or more in seven of those eight.  Santa Clara is 3-1 OVER in its last four games with 154 or more combined points in all four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are motivated to get out of the play-in and earn their way into the playoffs here down the stretch.  They are just one game behind the Warriors for the 6th seed and one game behind the Timberwolves, who sit in 7th.

What has me intrigued with the Clippers here down the stretch and especially tonight is the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all season.  Norman Powell and Kris Dunn are back from injury, and Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a huge get for them prior to the trade deadline as his shooting has really helped space the floor for Harden and Leonard.  This is a dangerous Clippers team that many are sleeping on.

Motivation is an issue for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East leading the Celtics by 7.5 games.  They are playing like it too, going just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with some very concerning results.  They were upset by the Magic as 10-point favorites last time out, they only beat Brooklyn by 5 as 15-point favorites, Charlotte by 1 as 16-point favorites and Miami by 5 as 13.5-point favorites.  They are grossly overvalued right now.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* UNC/San Diego State First Four ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3.5

North Carolina will be extra motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Almost everyone felt the Tar Heels shouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament due to their poor Quad 1 record.  However, they went 15-1 in Quad 2 games and they can handle a team like San Diego State.

North Carolina is the best of all the bubble teams in my opinion, certainly better than WVU, Indiana, Ohio State and Boise State who were all left out.  The Tar Heels earned their way by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their final 10 games with each of their last seven wins coming by 9 points or more.  Their two losses both came to Duke, and they took the Blue Devils to the wire in both games, and I have Duke as the best team in the country.

San Diego State is the fortunate team to be in the field.  The Aztecs went 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their final six games and were bounced in their first MWC game in a 10-point loss to Boise State.  The Mountain West is 26-53 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2006 so this is one of the most overrated conferences in the country year in and year out.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

15* Nets/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +13.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 115-113 as 11-point home dogs to Boston on Saturday.  The Nets are playing great here down the stretch and continue to show up every night. going 4-1 ATS in their last five games which includes a 5-point loss as 15-point dogs at Cleveland, an upset win over the Lakers and an upset win over the Hawks.

The Boston Celtics are struggling to find motivation right now as they are 7.5 games behind the Cavs for 1st place in the East and 5.5 games ahead of the Knicks, who sit in 3rd place.  So they are kind of locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They have been resting guys accordingly.

The Celtics could be without their two best players tonight as Jaylen Brown has been ruled out, while Jayson Tatum is questionable.  Both guys played in that 2-point win over Brooklyn on Saturday.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Lakers OVER 228

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now going 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in all nine games.  They rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating in those nine games as they clearly miss Victor Wembenyama on that end.  They have allowed 127 or more points in six of those nine games.

The Los Angeles Lakers are not a good defensive team right now with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves running the show.  But they are plenty potent on offense to get in a shootout with the Spurs tonight.

The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 228 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Spurs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +8.5

This is a tough spot for the Los Angeles Lakers who are without both LeBron James and Rui Hachimura right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a satisfying 107-96 home win over the Phoenix Suns last night.

It will also be the 4th game in 5 days for the Lakers, who won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Spurs as they were to beat the Suns, Nuggets and Bucks in the other three games during this stretch.  The Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall and struggling without James and Hachimura.

The Spurs continue to show up on a nightly basis and there's no question they will be motivated to beat the Lakers tonight.  The Spurs are 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Lakers with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +9

The Toronto Raptors are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 1 and 3 points.  They have pulled off three outright upsets on the road during this stretch.

The Phoenix Suns are 31-37 SU & 26-41-1 ATS this season and have been grossly overvalued all year.  They lost 107-96 on the road to the Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

They were already without Grayson Allen, and Bradley Beal left the game early and is questionable tonight.  The Raptors are a deep team that has battled injuries all season and continue to show up every night here down the stretch.  Asking the Suns to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 games overall and clearly not worried about tanking.  They upset the Nuggets as 12-point road dogs and the Pistons as 13.5-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.

Now the Wizards are showing great value again tonight as 6-point road dogs to a Portland Trail Blazers team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a narrow 105-102 win over the Raptors last night.  

The Blazers are also dealing with some injuries right now and could rest more guys in this back-to-back situation.  Portland is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall and likely out of playoff contention at this point, so motivation will be a factor moving forward.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* Wizards/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 230

The Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team as long as they have a healthy Jordan Poole, which is the case right now.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Wizards are coming off two consecutive shootout upset wins 129-125 at Detroit for 254 combined points and 126-123 at Denver for 249 combined points.  Poole and rookie Sarr are playing at a very high level right now offensively, but the Wizards still don't play much defense at all.

The Blazers are playing more small ball right now without two centers in Ayton and Williams.  I like the prospects of four youngsters in Simons, Sharpe, Avidja and Henderson leading the way for the Blazers.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Wizards tonight.

The Blazers beat the Wizards 129-121 for 250 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  These teams have combined for at least 229 points in seven of their last 10 meetings, and 225 or more in 12 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Jazz OVER 241

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-6 OVER in their last 20 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 13 of those 20 games.  They have had many different lineups during this stretch due to rest and injury, and they still keep going OVER.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team as well.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  They are thriving offensively right now scoring at least 114 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 243 or more combined points in three of those four meetings, including 261 in their first and only meeting thus far this season.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves OVER 231.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-5 OVER in their last 19 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 13 of those 19 games.  They have had many different lineups during this stretch due to rest and injury, and they still keep going OVER.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been going more small ball and are fully healthy right now with the exception of Mike Conley, which has led to more high-scoring games for them.  The OVER is 8-4 in Timberwolves last 12 games overall with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 12 games.

The OVER is 2-0 in two meetings between the Jazz and Timberwolves this season with 233 and 251 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Suns/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 229.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a healthy Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.  They are all offense and no defense.  They went for 257 combined points with the Nuggets and 232 with the Bucks in their last two games.

The Phoenix Suns are rolling offensively right now but they are a poor defensive team as well.  The Suns have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last 10 games, but they have allowed at least 116 points in 17 of their last 20 games.  The OVER is 14-8 in their last 22 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +4

The Phoenix Suns are just 1.5 games back of the injury-ravaged Dallas Mavericks in the play-in.  They also trail the Sacramento Kings by 2.5 games.  I think the Suns are undervalued right now because they have been such a poor ATS team all season that we are getting them at a discount as 4-point road underdogs here.

The Suns clearly continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  The are coming off a 122-106 home win over the Sacramento Kings who were fully healthy.  They played their previous four games on the road against current Western Conference playoff teams and they could have won all four.  They took Denver to OT, beat Dallas by 9, lost by 2 at Memphis and lost by 7 at Houston.

The Lakers are in a world of hurt without LeBron James (25.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 8.5 APG) and Rui Hachimura (13.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) right now.  They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  Luke Doncic is a great player, but he cannot carry this team without James.  He has always needed a side kick.  The Lakers are just so poor defensively that they should not be favored here.  They allowed 126 to the Bucks and 131 to the Nuggets in their last two games coming in.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on OVER 150.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have one of their best offenses in program history and they are playing faster this season.  They rank 10th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted tempo.  The Badgers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 151 with Michigan State, 156 with UCLA and 161 with Penn State.  The only game that went under was against a Northwestern team that is a dead nuts under team that plays slow and is without two of its top three scorers due to injury.

Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team that ranks 61st in adjusted tempo, 22nd in average length of offensive possession and 37th in adjusted offense.  Both Big Ten Tournament games for Michigan went OVER the total as well combining for 154 points with Purdue and 161 with Maryland.

I think what's keeping this total lower than it should be is the fact that the only meeting between Wisconsin and Michigan this season went way under the total with the Wolverines winning 67-64 for just 131 combined points.  Both both teams shot uncharacteristically poor with Michigan going 23-of-59 (39%) from the floor and 6-of-25 (24%) from 3 while Wisconsin shot 22-of-64 (34.4%) from the floor and 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3.  Both teams are due positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* George Mason/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on George Mason +8.5

The VCU Rams are likely in the NCAA Tournament win or lose.  The George Mason Patriots have to win to get in.  I like the motivational advantage the Patriots have here, and this number is out of whack as George Mason has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.

George Mason is 26-7 this season.  The Patriots should still be pretty fresh after making easy work of both George Washington and St. Joseph's the last two days beating both by double-digits.  VCU was in a dog fight with Loyola-Chicago yesterday winning by just 7.

George Mason also wants revenge after blowing a halftime lead on the road at VCU in their lone meeting this season.  The Patriots shot just 35.4% as a team, 26.3% from 3-point range and 62.5% from the FT line in that defeat.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +15.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a double-digit comeback to beat the Lakers 131-126 last night despite the Lakers being without both Doncic and James.  They just have a way of playing to their level of competition.

Even if everyone comes back and plays tonight for the Nuggets, they won't be all that motivated to beat the Wizards.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days and they have a huge game against the Warriors on deck that they could be looking ahead to.  I don't expect the Nuggets to put their best foot forward tonight.

The Wizards have been sneaking up on teams here of late and they continue to show up despite their position in last place the Eastern Conference standings.  They have gone 7-6 ATS in their last 13 games including a 129-125 upset win as 13.5-point dogs at Detroit last time out.  They will be up for this game against the Nuggets, and they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  

The Wizards pulled the 122-113 upset win as 11.5-point home dogs in their first meeting with the Nuggets this season.  Washington has lost by more than 14 points to Denver just twice in their last 15 meetings.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 234

The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now going 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in all eight games.  They rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating in those eight games as they clearly miss Victor Wembenyama on that end.

That was on display last night as they lost 145-134 to the Hornets for 279 combined points.  They have completely let go of the rope defensively allowing 127 or more points in six of their last eight games.  Look for them to get in another shootout with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans have plenty of offensive firepower with Murphy, McCollum, Brown and Olynyk and they play zero defense.  They rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  The OVER is 6-3 in Pelicans last nine games overall with 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games, and 240 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Knicks/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 229.5

The Knicks are without leading scorer Jalen Brunson (26.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) right now and are struggling offensively without him.  They were already struggling offensively since the All-Star Break with him in the lineup.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team playing slower and upping their defensive intensity in recent weeks.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Knicks last nine games overall and would be 8-1 without OT.  They have gone to OT in three of their last six games.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points in 8 of those 9 games even with OT factored in.  The Knicks and their opponents have averaged 215.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine games.  They rank 25th in pace, 25th in offensive rating and 8th in defensive rating during this 9-game stretch.

The Warriors are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They are a better defensive team with Jimmy Butler and they were already a great defensive team.  They rank 8th in defensive rating on the season and 3rd in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They rank in the middle of the pack in pace this season and haven't been playing any faster with Butler.

This is a rematch from less than two weeks ago when the Warriors beat the Knicks 114-102 on the road for just 216 combined points.  And neither team shot it terribly as the Warriors shot 49% from the field while the Knicks shot 45% and that was with Brunson in the lineup.  The Knicks and Warriors haven't topped 231 combined points at the end of regulation in any of their last 12 meetings, and they have finished with 228 or fewer in 10 of those 12 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Louisville/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Louisville +6.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury in their ACC Tournament opener to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  I cashed in UNC +7.5 yesterday fading Duke without these two, and I'm fading them again today as they should not be 6.5-point favorites over Louisville without Flagg and Brown.

Duke showed a ton of heart in the first half against UNC yesterday with an inspired effort to prove they could still win without Flagg.  The Blue Devils led by 21 at halftime, but then reality set in and UNC stormed back to get within 1, only to commit a lane violation that cost them the game in a 74-71 defeat.

I have Louisville power rated a few points better than North Carolina, so I'll gladly take the points again.  The Cardinals are battle-tested coming through clutch late to prevent comebacks by Stanford and Clemson the last two days.  I think they have what it takes to hang with Duke, especially knowing they don't have to deal with Flagg and Brown.

Duke beat Louisville by 11 in their lone regular season meeting this season.  But Flagg had 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Brown had 6 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals.  That's a combined 26 points and 23 rebounds the Blue Devils will be without in the rematch.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 115-114 at Indiana on Tuesday, March 11th on a 4-point play at the buzzer by Tyrese Haliburton.  Now they get to host the Pacers just four days later and they are in the much better spot tonight.

The Bucks had yesterday off following a 126-106 home win over the Lakers on Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 112-100 win in Philadelphia last night.  The Pacers needed a big comeback to win that game so they were forced to play their starters big minutes.

Indiana is just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last four games overall consistently being overvalued.  They lost consecutive road games to the Hawks and followed it up with an 18-point loss at Chicago to fall to 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.

Milwaukee was a 2.5-point road favorite at Indiana on Tuesday and now is just a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  The books have not adjusted enough for flipping home courts and the fact that the Pacers are in a tough spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.