|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-18-21||Drake +2 v. Wichita State||53-52||Win||100||78 h 27 m||Show|
15* Drake/Wichita State Play-In ANNIHILATOR on Drake +2
The Drake Bulldogs aren't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament. They are looking to make a statement with all the naysayers out there believing they should not be in the NCAA Tournament. Look for them to upset the Wichita State Shockers in their play-in game Thursday.
Drake went 25-4 this season and had the second-most wins of any team in the country. Two of those losses came to Loyola-Chicago, a team they also beat and is a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs deserve to be here, and they did it despite being without two of their best players down the stretch in leading scorer and rebounder ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Roman Penn (11.2 PPG, 5.5 APG).
Well, there's good news on the horizon as head coach Darian Devries has stated that everything is on track for Hemphill to make his much-anticipated return to the lineup for the NCAA Tournament. He has missed the last seven games. Penn has missed the last five games and is out for the season. But Joseph Yesufu has stopped up in a big way in Penn's absence. He has averaged 23.7 PPG in his last six games in place of Penn.
Wichita State went 16-5 this season but isn't as good as its record would indicate. The Shockers went just 3-7 ATS in their final 10 games this season. They were simply fortunate in close games this season as they had 10 wins by 6 points or fewer and 12 wins by 8 points or less. Their only four wins by double-digits came against Emporia State, Newmann, South Florida and Tulsa. To compare, Drake has 16 wins by double-digits.
The Bulldogs are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bulldogs are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. Wichita State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Shockers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games as favorites. Roll with Drake Thursday.
|03-18-21||Mt. St. Mary's v. Texas Southern -2||Top||52-60||Win||100||77 h 10 m||Show|
20* Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern NCAA Tournament Opener on Texas Southern -2
Texas Southern (16-8) should be much more than a 2-point favorite against Mount St. Mary's (12-10) in this play-in game to kick off the 2021 NCAA Tournament. They have fared better against the better competition and come into the tournament with a ton of confidence.
That's because the Tigers have gone 14-1 SU in their last 15 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points. They played the much tougher non-conference schedule and had a good account of themselves against the better competition.
They only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs. They weren't really overmatched in any of those games.
The two best teams that Mount St. Mary's played out of conference were Maryland and VCU. They lost by 18 to Maryland and by 18 to VCU. The rest of their schedule was soft as butter, and they also lost to Navy in the non-conference.
Texas Southern is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games. Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games. The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs. Bet Texas Southern Thursday.
|03-17-21||Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 227||Top||89-105||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 227
I really like to bet UNDERS on these games that are rematches when teams play each other two games in a row. Teams get familiar with each other and it always seems to favor defense in that 2nd meeting.
Plus, the recent head-to-head history between these teams suggests there's a ton of value with the UNDER. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Mavericks with combined scores of 208, 197 and 198 points. That's an average of 201 combined points per game, which is 26 points less than this 227-point total.
The Clippers just beat the Mavericks 109-99 on Monday in the first meeting of this double-header. And both teams shot really well with the Clippers shooting 50% from the field and 43.7% from 3-point range. The Mavericks shot 49.4% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range. So it was played at a snail's pace, and it should be more of the same here.
The UNDER is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games as underdogs. The UNDER is 6-0 in Mavericks last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|03-17-21||Heat v. Grizzlies +2||Top||85-89||Win||100||13 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +2
I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight games with two of those losses coming to the Nuggets by a single point and the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back. It's a good time to 'buy low' on them as well off those three straight losses.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Heat after 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. All of their recent wins have come against bottom feeders. Only two of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records. Their current five-game winning streak has come against the Pelicans, Magic (twice), Bulls and Cavaliers.
This is an awful spot for the Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. Don't be surprised to see them rest some players in this one, most notably Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler.
The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Miami is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a win by 15 points or more. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.
|03-17-21||Warriors -11.5 v. Rockets||108-94||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -11.5
The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the NBA right now. They have had players wanting traded all season, and it just has been a terrible chemistry with this team. And the injury situation is so bad that they aren't even playing replacement-level players at this point, it's a bunch of guys who should be in the G League.
The Rockets are 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They have now lost 10 straight games by 11 points or more and by an average of 19.9 points per game. They are without John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs. They could be without Danuel House, CHristian Wood, Ben McLemore and will likely be without Victor Oladipo, who is doubtful.
Oladipo is doubtful due to rest after scoring 34 points in their 107-119 loss to the Hawks last night. Now the Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. This situation is awful for most teams, but especially troubling for a team like the Rockets that is short-handed already.
I have zero concern about a Warriors letdown tonight, too, which is why I'm willing to lay this large number. The Warriors will be highly motivated for a victory after going 1-5 in their last six games overall. But those six games came against the class of the league in the Lakers (twice), Clippers, Jazz, Suns and Blazers. They even upset the Jazz by 12 for their lone victory. This is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity to get back on the right track. They will take advantage.
The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs. Enough said. Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.
|03-17-21||Nets v. Pacers +4||124-115||Loss||-108||11 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets after going 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall. They are starting to just go through the motions, and I successfully faded them in each of their last two wins over Detroit by 5 as 11-point home favorites and New York by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites.
Now I'm fully expecting the Nets to lose outright as they hit the road here after playing a very weak schedule of late with their last seven wins coming against the Kings, Magic, Spurs, Rockets, Celtics, Pistons and Knicks. This is a step up in class against the Pacers tonight.
The Pacers are as healthy as they've been in a long time with the debut of Caris LeVert two games ago against the Phoenix Suns, a game they won outright 122-111 as 7-point dogs to flash their potential. That was the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 5-point road loss to the Lakers the night before. And they went on to lose to the Nuggets on the road in a very tough 3-game road trip coming out of the All-Star Break.
Now the Pacers are back home here and primed to upset the Nets. It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after going 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. And you know LeVert is going to want some revenge here after the Nets just traded him away mid-season. Look for a huge game from him, and for his teammates to rally around him and get this outright victory, though we'll take the 4 points for some insurance.
The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Indiana is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % above .600. The Pacers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to cover six or seven of their last eight games.
Plays against road favorites (Brooklyn) - after four or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing against a team with a losing record are 57-25 (59.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|03-16-21||Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 240||124-125||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 240
Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS. Those are the only three sure things in life. The Pelicans have been the best OVER team in the NBA this season. They have gone 28-6 OVER in their last 34 games overall. And the books have once again not set the number high enough here against the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 240-plus points in nine of their last 13 games overall without any of those 240-plus efforts going to overtime. The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency at 113.5 points per 100 possessions and 28th in defensive efficiency at 113.7 points per 100 possessions. That makes them the perfect OVER team.
The Blazers are in the same boat as they are 29th in defensive efficiency at 114.5 points per 100 possessions allowed. Only the Kings have been worse. But Portland is 8th in offensive efficiency, and they get a big boost on that end with the return of CJ McCollum from a foot injury tonight. He averaged 26.7 points and 5.0 assists per game in 13 games prior to the injury.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 250, 243 and 245 points with none of those games going to overtime. Six of the past nine meetings have seen 240 or more combined points. Three of Portland's last four games have seen 242 or more combined points coming in. Roll with the OVER In this game Tuesday.
|03-16-21||Hawks -9.5 v. Rockets||119-107||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -9.5
The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the NBA right now. They have had players wanting traded all season, and it just has been a terrible chemistry. And the injury situation is so bad that they aren't even playing replacement-level players at this point it's a bunch of guys who should be in the G League.
The Rockets are 0-16 SU & 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They have now lost nine straight games by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.8 points per game. They are without John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs. They could be without Christian Wood, Danuel House and Ben McLemore tonight as well.
Since the Hawks went to Nate McMillan as head coach they have been on fire. They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and coming off two striaght blowout wins by 15 over Sacramento and by 18 over Cleveland. Sitting at 19-20 this season, the Hawks have a chance to get to .500 for the first time since late January. They will be motivated to do just that, so I don't expect a letdown here against Houston.
The nine straight losses by 11-plus points for Houston makes for a 9-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 9.5-point spread tonight. The Rockets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Take the Hawks Tuesday.
|03-16-21||Jazz v. Celtics +4.5||Top||117-109||Loss||-109||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston +4.5
The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show in their performances. They just got Marcus Smart back after the All-Star Break and are now a serious contender in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Brooklyn, which is playing as well as anyone right now in going 13-1 in their last 14 games overall. Boston should not be catching 4.5 points at home against Utah tonight.
The Jazz are overvalued due to that incredible run they went on until right up before the All-Star Break. The Jazz have finally come back down to reality of late. They are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with upset losses to the Warriors, 76ers, Pelicans and Heat. Their only two wins came against the Magic and Rockets. The Rockets are 0-16 in their last 16 games, while the Magic are 0-8 in their last eight contests.
The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Jazz are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games when playing 3 or fewer games in 10 days. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after playing a road game. These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Boston. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|03-15-21||Knicks +8 v. Nets||112-117||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +8
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets, who are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. I successfully backed the Pistons +11.5 against the Nets in a 5-point loss to them in Brooklyn's last game Saturday. And now I'm fading them again tonight with the New York Knicks as 8-point underdogs.
The Knicks have been grossly undervalued all season. They are 20-19 SU & 22-17 ATS this year. They are coming off a 119-97 win in Oklahoma City for their fifth win in their last seven games. Four of those five wins came by double-digits.
Now the Knicks will be motivated to show they can play with a team like Brooklyn on National TV tonight. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and hasn't lost any of those games by more than 7 points. That's important when we're talking about this 8-point spread tonight.
In fact, Brooklyn has just one win in its last 13 meetings with New York by more than 8 points, and that was a 10-point victory. That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 8-point spread. New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after playing two consecutive road games. Take the Knicks Monday.
|03-15-21||Bucks v. Wizards +9.5||Top||133-122||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +9.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards after going just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall. But their losses all came to good teams in Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Memphis (twice). And they also upset the Clippers.
They only lost 119-125 to the Bucks at home on Saturday without both Bradley Beal and Dylan Bertans. So they've proven they can hang with the Bucks even without these two, and there's a decent chance they get one or both back for the rematch today as both are questionable.
The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge in this double-header situation. I think the Bucks will relax enough that it will make it extremely difficult for them to win by 10-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread.
The Wizards have been undervalued for weeks as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall . Washington is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 Monday games. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bet the Wizards Monday.
|03-14-21||Raptors v. Bulls -3.5||Top||95-118||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5
I faded the Toronto Raptors yesterday with success on the Charlotte Hornets, who beat them 114-104 as 2-point favorites. I'm fading them again today for a number of the same reasons, not the least of which they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight and will not have much left in the tank.
The Raptors remain without Pascal Siakam (20.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG), Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG) and OG Anunoby (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) due to COVID. That's roughly 54 points per game they are missing in their lineup. Their losses will be amplified in this 2nd of a back-to-back situatuion.
It's no surprise that the Raptors have struggled of late without them, going 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall with their lone victory coming against the Houston Rockets. Well, that's a Rockets team that has now lost 15 straight games and is probably the worst team in the NBA right now.
I have no doubt the Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after coming out of the All-Star Break with two straight losses to the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat. Those two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Now the Bulls get a big step down in class here against the Raptors, who in their current state are one of the worst teams in the NBA. And the Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now and the chemistry should be there in their 3rd game back from the break.
Chicago is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after losing four of its last five games coming in. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Sunday games. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Bulls tonight. Bet the Bulls Sunday.
|03-14-21||Clippers v. Pelicans OVER 234||115-135||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Pelicans OVER 234
The OVER is 27-6 in Pelicans last 33 games overall. They have been the best OVER team in the NBA this season, and I think they have set this number against the Clippers too low here Sunday in what should be another shootout.
The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season giving up 113.8 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers can name their score as they rank 2nd in offensive efficiency, scoring 116.1 points per 100 possessions.
The Pelicans are 8th in offensive efficiency as well at 113.1 points per 100 possessions. And they may not have to face Patrick Beverly, who is the Clippers' best defender and expected to miss this game. That means more Lou Williams and better offense but worse defense for the Clippers in this one.
New Orleans is 10-1 OVER when revenging a road loss this season. The OVER is 8-0 in Pelicans eight home games following an ATS win this season. The OVER is 7-2 in Clippers last nine games as a road favorite. The OVER is 17-4 in Pelicans last 21 home games. The OVER is 8-0 in Pelicans last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|03-14-21||Celtics -10.5 v. Rockets||Top||134-107||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics -10.5
Things are getting worse before they get better for the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are 0-15 SU & 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Each of their last eight losses have come by 11 points or more, and I think we can chalk up a ninth straight loss by 11-plus here against the Boston Celtics before this one is even played.
The Rockets are a G League team right now at best. They are without Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, John Wall, Danuel House, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs. They are lokely to be without Victor Oladipo, who is questionable. They just don't have many healthy bodies, and the ones they do are not even replacement-level players. It's no wonder they have lost 15 straight and eight straight by 11-plus.
The Boston Celtics come in as healthy as they have been all season as they just got Marcus Smart back from injury after the All-Star Break. They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Brooklyn Nets, who are playing as well as anyone right now. They come in rested on two days' rest and can seriously just show up and win this game by 11-plus tonight.
Boston is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss by 10 points or more. The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|03-14-21||Ohio State v. Illinois -6||Top||88-91||Loss||-106||6 h 17 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -6
Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. The Fighting Illini are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall with six straight covers coming in. They received a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, then made easy work of both Rutgers (90-68) and Iowa (72-61), so they should still be pretty fresh and ready to go for this Championship Game.
The same cannot be said for the Ohio State Buckeyes. They have to be running on fumes here Sunday playing their 4th game in 4 days. They have barely survived each game they've won to get here. They beat lowly Minnesota 79-75 as an 11-point favorites, needed OT to beat Purdue, and upset Michigan 68-67 yesterday.
They took advantage of a Michigan team that was missing its best player in Isaiah Livers. They won't be able to take advantage of Illinois, which is fully healthy and ready to cap off a championship season. And Ohio State is likely to be without Kyle Young (8.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) due to a concussion, so they are going to be short-handed inside. That's bad news when going up against a guy like Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG) of Illinois.
Illinois is 11-1 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season. The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games. Bet Illinois Sunday.
|03-14-21||Cincinnati +13.5 v. Houston||54-91||Loss||-109||6 h 57 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are making the most of their AAC Tournament after what was a tough regular season due to COVID. The Bearcats have pulled two straight upsets over SMU as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4.5-point dogs. Now they have their sights set on making the NCAA Tournament with a win over Houston Sunday.
At the very least, the Bearcats should cover this 13.5-point spread, and there's plenty of reason to believe there's value with them here. Keep in mind Cincinnati was only a 12.5-point dog at Houston in their last meeting on February 21st. Now the Bearcats are 13.5-point dogs on a neutral.
Certainly the Bearcats want revenge after losing 52-90 at Houston, which is 15-0 at home this season. But that was a rare blowout loss for them. In fact, they haven't lost by more than 15 points in any other game all season.
Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, so I don't think fatigue will be much of an issue for the Bearcats compared to the Cougars. If anything, it's Houston that will be the more tired team because Cincinnati goes eight deep and had all eight players play between 15 and 32 minutes yesterday. Meanwhile, Houston had to work for a 76-74 win over Memphis, which saw four starters play 38, 38, 37 and 31 minutes.
Lastly, Houston is almost already assured of a Top 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They just don't need this game as much as Cincinnati does, and I think motivation will be an issue for the Cougars. Especially after recently blasting Cincinnati by 38 points they probably feel like they just have to show up to win. I'll gladly back the team that wants it more catching 13.5 points. Roll with Cincinnati Sunday.
|03-13-21||Oregon State +8 v. Colorado||70-68||Win||100||14 h 24 m||Show|
15* Oregon State/Colorado Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8
The Oregon State Beavers have quietly gone 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. They are coming off two straight upset victories over UCLA and Oregon, including their impressive 75-64 win over the Ducks yesterday as 8.5-point dogs. Now they are being disrespected once again as 8-point dogs to Colorado Saturday.
Colorado is coming off two straight hard-fought wins over California by 3 as 14-point favorites and USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites. The Buffaloes are also played the late game last night, while Oregon State got to play before them. I think the Beavers will actually be the fresher team here because of it.
Plus, Colorado is content with already punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Oregon State is on a mission to make the big dance and likely still needs to win this game to get in. At the very least they should be able to stay within this 8-point spread and only lost by 4 as 6.5-point dogs to the Buffaloes the last time they squared off.
The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when revenging a same-season loss. The Beavers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs. Roll with Oregon State Saturday.
|03-13-21||Pistons +11.5 v. Nets||95-100||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +11.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They were only double-digit favorites once during this streak, and that was against the Houston Rockets, who have now lost 15 straight games and are probably the worst team in the NBA right now.
Now the Nets are laying double-digits to a Detroit Pistons team that keeps showing up despite some injury problems all season. The Pistons have finally gotten healthy now and have an absolute stud in Jerami Grant leading the way.
The Pistons have only lost by more than 10 points twice in their last 12 games overall. So they have been very competitive, and I look for them to give the Nets a run for their money tonight. The Nets are in a letdown spot off their big win over Boston. And they just don't blow out the Pistons very often.
Detroit has only lost by more than 10 points to Brooklyn once in the last 20 meetings, making for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 11.5-point spread. The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing three consecutive road games. Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its 10 games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season. Take the Pistons Saturday.
|03-13-21||Raptors v. Hornets -2||Top||104-114||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2
The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They sit at 18-18 on the season after going 8-4 in their last 12 games overall. And they have been especially good when fully healthy, which is the case for them right now.
The same cannot be said for the Raptors. They remain without Pascal Siakam (20.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG), Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG) and OG Anunoby (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) due to COVID. That's roughly 54 points per game they are missing in their lineup.
It's no surprise that the Raptors have struggled of late without them, going 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their lone victory coming against the Houston Rockets. Well, that's a Rockets team that has now lost 15 straight games and is probably the worst team in the NBA right now.
The Hornets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. They only reason they didn't cover last game was because the Pistons got a meaningless layup at the buzzer. Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Toronto and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall. Bet the Hornets Saturday.
|03-13-21||Oklahoma State v. Texas -1.5||Top||86-91||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5
Texas is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch. The Longhorns have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming by 2 to West Virginia and on the road to Texas Tech. They avenged that defeat to the Red Raiders yesterday with a clutch 67-66 win that gave them all the confidence in the world.
Now the Longhorns are in an extremely favorable spot today. They had yesterday off after a positive COVID test for Kansas. So they will be rested and ready to go and win the Big 12 Tournament here today against Oklahoma State.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after two hard-fought, upset wins over West Virginia and Baylor the past two days. Both were decided by single-digits, and they win over Baylor makes it a successful Big 12 Tournament for the Cowboys no matter what happens in the championship game. I think the rest and motivated really favors Texas here because of it.
The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off two or more consecutive wins. Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win. The Longhorns are 10-2 SU in all games played away from home this season. Bet Texas Saturday.
|03-13-21||Iowa v. Illinois -4||Top||71-82||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -4
Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall with five straight covers coming in. They made easy work of Rutgers yesterday 90-68 so they should still be fresh and ready to go.
The same cannot be said for the Iowa Hawkeyes, who had to erase a 6-point halftime deficit to beat Wisconsin 62-57. The fact that they were in a dog fight yesterday and the fact that they played the late game while Illinois played before them works against the Hawkeyes here.
Illinois will be the much fresher team after winning in a blowout and playing before Iowa Friday, especially with tip set for 3:30 EST this afternoon after Iowa played late last night. The Fighting Illini won their lone meeting with Iowa 80-75 at home earlier this season. They have a guy in Cockburn down low that can match up with Garza, and they have the athletic perimeter players on the outside that Iowa can't guard. It's just a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes.
Plays against underdogs (Iowa) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that beat the spread by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Fighting Illini are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Illinois Saturday.
|03-12-21||Ole Miss v. LSU -1.5||Top||73-76||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
20* Ole Miss/LSU SEC No-Brainer on LSU -1.5
The LSU Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the SEC. They are a real sleeper to make a run in this tournament, and I love their chances of beating Ole Miss today. Especially since they had a bye into this round, while Ole Miss has to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over SOuth Carolina yesterday.
LSU earned a bye by going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their final five games down the stretch with four wins by double-digits and an upset road win at Missouri. Ole Miss is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. It's time to 'sell high' on the Rebels here.
LSU won 75-61 as a 2-point road dog at Ole Miss in their lone meeting this season. The Tigers improved to 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and they are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. With this line the Tigers basically just have to win to cover, which shouldn't be a problem given the favorable spot for them. Roll with LSU Friday.
|03-12-21||North Carolina v. Florida State -3||Top||66-69||Push||0||12 h 41 m||Show|
20* UNC/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3
Florida State has a massive rest advantage here after its game with Duke got postponed yesterday. I was on the Seminoles in that game and disappointed it got postponed. But I'm back on them again today for many of the same reasons I was against Duke.
North Carolina will be playing for a third consecutive day. The Tar Heels had to rally from a halftime deficit to beat Virginia Tech 81-73 yesterday. And that was a rusty Hokies team that was coming off a long COVID pause.
The Tar Heels had seven different players play at least 21 minutes yesterday against the Hokies. They will be on tired legs here, and that's bad news against a fresh, deep Florida State team that will run them out of the gym.
The Tar Heels are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games as underdogs. The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Seminoles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Seminoles are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.
North Carolina is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after two straight games where it grabbed 10 or more rebounds than its opponent. The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive wins. It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today in a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Seminoles. Bet Florida State Friday.
|03-12-21||Cavs +7.5 v. Pelicans||Top||82-116||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The New Orleans Pelicans had a gutless performance yesterday in their first game back from the All-Star Break. You would think a team that lost four of its last five going into the break would come out motivated. But they simply weren't, and they fell 105-135 to Minnesota despite being an 8-point favorite. That's a Timberwolves that was 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their previous nine games and they lost by 30 to them.
Now the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and don't be surprised if they rest Zion Williamson like they sometimes do on these back-to-backs. Either way, the Pelicans cannot be trusted to be laying 7.5 points here in this situation against a Cleveland Cavaliers team playing their best basketball of the season.
Indeed, the Cavaliers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have upset wins over the Hawks as 7.5-point dogs, Rockets twice as dogs and 76ers are 11.5-point dogs. They also only lost to the Pacers by 3 as 6.5-point home dogs. They come out of the break with a ton of momentum and looking to pick up right where they left off here.
The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The Pelicans are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.
|03-12-21||Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5||103-102||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are finally healthy and rolling. They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with an upset win over the Clippers by 28 and a 1-point loss to the Bucks as 6-point dogs. All four victories came by 14 points or more as well.
Now the Grizzlies take on a Denver Nuggets team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers and shouldn't be road favorites here. But the Nuggets are getting that respect due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their final four games going into the All-Star Break with three of those wins coming against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in the Thunder, Bulls and Pacers.
I like the fact that the Grizzlies have already played a game out of the break with their 127-112 win over the Wizards to knock off the rust. Meanwhile, Denver hasn't played since March 4th and will be rusty. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on three or more days' rest.
Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver. The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.
|03-12-21||Missouri v. Arkansas -3||64-70||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -3
The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. They have gone 21-5 this season, have won eight straight coming in and are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall. This number is way too short today against Missouri given their advantages.
Arkansas earned a double-bye and is rested and ready to go now. Meanwhile, Missouri was in a dog fight in a 73-70 win over Georgia yesterday as 6.5-point favorites. Four starters had to play 30-plus minutes for the Tigers and they won't have much left in the tank here for Arkansas. Look for the Razorbacks to run the Tigers out of the gym tonight.
Missouri is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a close win by 3 points or less. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Take Arkansas Friday.
|03-12-21||Ohio State v. Purdue +1.5||87-78||Loss||-110||5 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue +1.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They should not be underdogs today to Ohio State with how well they are playing, their head-to-head success and the favorable spot for them.
Indeed, Purdue earned a double-bye and didn't have to play yesterday. They will be rested and ready to go. Meanwhile, Ohio State had to hold off Minnesota late for a 79-75 victory as 11-point favorites. The Buckeyes are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
Now the Buckeyes are a tired team and are taking on a Purdue team they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS against this season. The Boilermakers won 67-60 at home and 67-65 on the road. Ohio State had two of its worst offensive performances of the season against this Purdue defense. It won't go much better for them today on tired legs. Purdue is now 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Purdue Friday.
|03-11-21||Rockets v. Kings OVER 227.5||105-125||Win||100||13 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Kings OVER 227.5
The Sacramento Kings have been a great OVER bet all season. They are 25-11 OVER in their 36 games this year. And rarely do you see a Kings total set less than 230, so we will take advantage today and back the OVER.
The OVER is 11-1 in Kings last 12 games overall. In fact, 13 of their last 14 games have seen 228 or more combined points, which makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.
The Rockets have pretty much quit defensively as they have allowed 118 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall. But they should get their offense going here against a Kings team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season.
Sacramento is 7-0 OVER In home games vs. a team with a losing record this season. The OVER is 5-0 on Rockets last five games as road underdogs. The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 235 or more points four times. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|03-11-21||Texas Tech v. Texas +1.5||Top||66-67||Win||100||25 h 21 m||Show|
20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +1.5
The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games overall with a 2-point loss to West Virginia and a 9-point loss to Texas Tech.
The Longhorns also lost by 2 to the Red Raiders earlier this season at home. They blew a 10-point halftime lead in that 2-point loss. They were also tied at halftime in their 9-point loss to Texas Tech in the rematch. So they simply fell apart in the 2nd half of both games. They will certainly want some revenge here, and while I don't believe in the saying it's hard to beat a team three times in the same season, I do believe it will be hard for the Red Raiders to beat a team as good as Texas three times.
That's especially the case with how well the Longhorns are playing right now and on the road this season. Texas is 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year. Texas Tech is just 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games.
Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win. The Red Raiders have been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. They are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Texas Tech is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games following a SU loss. Take Texas Thursday.
|03-11-21||Penn State v. Wisconsin -5.5||74-75||Loss||-110||14 h 30 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -5.5
The Wisconsin Badgers will be highly motivated for a victory in their Big Ten Tournament opener here against Penn State. They ended the season on a three-game losing streak to three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Illinois, Purdue and Iowa with all three losses coming by 5 points or less.
Now the Badgers are rested and ready to go today against Penn State, which had to rally from a 15-point deficit to beat lowly Nebraska 72-66. The Nittany Lions had to play their starters big minutes obviously to make that comeback and will now be tired.
Penn State will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 5 days. The Nittany Lions come in overvalued off three straight victories against three bottom feeders in the Big Ten in Minnesota, Maryland and Nebraska. Conversely, Wisconsin comes in undervalued off three straight losses to the cream of the crop in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss. Penn State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering two of its last three ATS. The Nittany Lions are 1-4-3 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. The Badgers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss. Roll with Wisconsin Thursday.
|03-11-21||Mavs v. Thunder +6.5||Top||108-116||Win||100||12 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5
I like the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They lost their second-to-last game prior to the All-Star Break to these same Dallas Mavericks 78-87 on the road. Now they come out of the break and get to host the Mavericks and will obviously be motivated for revenge.
They get to face the Mavericks in a much more vulnerable spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 115-104 home win over the Dallas Mavericks last night. Don't be surprised if they decide to rest either Porzingis or Doncic, but either way I like the Thunder here.
The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on zero rest. Dallas is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|03-11-21||Wolves v. Pelicans -8.5||Top||135-105||Loss||-106||24 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are probably the worst team in the NBA right now. They are 5-29 SU in their last 34 games overall. They are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 20.4 points per game.
Making matters worse for the Timberwolves is that they just lost Malik Beasley and his 20.5 PPG to a 12-game suspension. He was one of the few brights spots on this team pre-suspension. They are still without De'Angelo Russell and his 19.3 PPG and 5.1 APG. That's roughly 40 PPG they are missing between those two players combined. There just isn't much talent on this team now outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is a terrible leader.
Now the Timberwolves come out of the All-Star Break and face a Pelicans team that will be motivated to make a playoff push. I think we get an undervalued Pelicans team due to losing four of their last five games going into the break. Three of those losses came by 4 points or less. The other loss was the 2nd of a back-to-back to Miami without Zion Williamson. They also upset the Jazz as 7-point underdogs.
Now the Pelicans take a big step down in competition and should handle the Timberwolves. New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days' rest. This is a game they should win by double-digits against the pathetic Timberwolves. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|03-11-21||Pistons v. Hornets -4.5||102-105||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -4.5
The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are just 0.5 games behind the Miami Heat for first place in the Southeast Division. And now they get two key players back from injury out of the All-Star Break in Devonte Graham and P.J. Washington.
The Detroit Pistons are a mess. They are just 10-26 this season and sitting in last place in the Central Division. They just traded away Blake Griffin and are dealing with a plethora of injuries. They are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall with their only wins coming against two depleted teams at the time they faced them in the Raptors and Magic.
Charlotte simply owns Detroit, going 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Hornets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record. Charlotte is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Hornets Thursday.
|03-11-21||Arizona State v. Oregon -8.5||73-91||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -8.5
The Oregon Ducks are on their usual late-season surge and playing their best basketball of the season. They are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to USC. They have also covered four straight coming in with four straight victories by 8 points or more.
Now the Ducks are rested and ready to go today while Arizona State had to play yesterday. The Sun Devils needed a comeback win to beat Washington State 64-59. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 8 days.
The Sun Devils are already short-handed due to injuries, which is a big reason they are an awful 11-13 SU & 6-18 ATS this season. Oregon won 75-64 at Arizona State in their lone meeting this season and should have no problem beating them by double-digits today given the favorable situation they are in.
The Sun Devils are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. Arizona State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. The Sun Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. The Ducks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win. Oregon is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games. Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following four or more consecutive ATS wins. Arizona State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in its previous game. Roll with Oregon Thursday.
|03-11-21||Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 141||72-71||Loss||-108||6 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Georgetown/Villanova UNDER 141
The Villanova Wildcats are going to be without two of their top three scorers today on Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Justin Moore (12.7 PPG). They are going to have to rely on their defense to try and advantage in this Big East Tournament against Georgetown Thursday.
Their first game without Gillespie resulted in a 54-52 loss to Providence and only 106 combined points. They also lost Moore to an ankle injury in that game, and he is now doubtful for the Big East Tournament.
Georgetown locked down Marquette defensively in a 68-49 win and 117 combined points. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with two of the last three seeing 139 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is also 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hoyas last five games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-10-21||Iowa State +11.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||73-79||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
20* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +11.5
The Iowa State Cyclones have not packed it in and are still fighting for that elusive Big 12 victory. It might just happen where the magic seems to always happen for them every year at Hilton South in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament. They have had unbelievable success in this tournament over the years.
Now the Cyclones get a huge boost with the return of leading scorer Rasir Bolton (15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.9 APG), who left early in the TCU game on February 27th with an ankle injury and had to sit out the next three games. It's no wonder the Cyclones have gone 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Now is a great time to 'buy low' on Iowa State.
Somehow, Oklahoma continues to get massive respect from oddsmakers despite going 0-4 SU in its last four games overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. The Sooners only beat the Cyclones by 7 at home and by 10 on the road in their two earlier meetings. So the Cyclones have proven they can play with them, and they should not be catching 11.5 points here.
Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS. Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after three straight games with 31 or fewer rebounds. The Cyclones are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 conference tournament games. Iowa State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games as an underdog. The Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.
|03-10-21||Spurs v. Mavs OVER 222.5||104-115||Loss||-112||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Mavericks OVER 222.5
The Mavericks were an OVER machine for several weeks once they got healthy. But as the books have started to set the numbers too high recently, they have gone 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall. But now they have adjusted too much and this 222.5-point total is too low tonight against San Antonio.
The Mavericks were without Luka Doncic in their final game before the All-Star Break due to a back injury. It resulted in a low scoring 87-78 win over Oklahoma City. That lone result has provided us some line value with the OVER. Doncic is expected to return to the lineup for this game.
Speaking of returning to the lineup, the Spurs are getting several key players back from either injury or quarantine. They will now be hitting on all cylinders offensively moving forward with Derrick White, Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge all expected to be back for this game.
Dallas beat San Antonio 122-117 for 239 combined points on January 22nd in their lone meeting this season. The OVER is 11-3 in Spurs last 14 games when playing on three or more days' rest. The OVER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 games as a favorite. The OVER is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 home games. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|03-10-21||Texas A&M v. Vanderbilt -114||Top||68-79||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Vanderbilt SEC No-Brainer on Vanderbilt ML -114
The Vanderbilt Commodores have been one of the most underrated teams in the country since late January. They have gone 7-1-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have one of the best players in the country in Scotty Pippen Jr.
Pippen Jr. (20.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) missed three games in a row with an ankle injury but returned to score 36 points in a 78-64 upset win at Cincinnati as 6.5-point underdogs on March 4th. He and Dylan Disu (15.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG) can carry the Commodores to a couple victories in the SEC Tournament, starting with this opener against Texas A&M.
The Aggies were off from January 20th until March 3rd due to a COVID pause. They have only played two games since returning and lost them both to Mississippi State and Arkansas. This team is rusty and out of sync, and I don't see much changing here against a Vanderbilt team that is playing its best basketball of the season.
Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in road games following a loss this season. Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. The Aggies are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as underdogs, including 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games overall. The Commodores are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss. Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.
|03-10-21||Washington State +1 v. Arizona State||59-64||Loss||-100||7 h 45 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +1
The Washington State Cougars want revenge from their 74-77 (OT) road loss at Arizona State on February 27th at 5-point underdogs. But the Cougars didn't have their best player in Isaac Bonton (17.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG) for that game, and they'll have him back in the lineup now for the Pac-12 Tournament opener. It will make all the difference for this team.
Arizona State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. The Sun Devils entered the season in the Top 25 and have fallen flat on their faces. They are just 10-13 SU & 5-18 ATS this season.
Injuries have taken their toll on the Sun Devils, who are still missing several key players entering the Pac-12 Tournament. And it wasn't a good look for them to close out the regular season as they followed up their 61-75 loss at Colorado with a 59-98 loss at Utah. While I know the Cougars will show up for the Pac-12 Tournament, the Sun Devils may have already packed it in.
The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Sun Devils are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games. Arizona State is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite. Arizona State is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 games overall. The Sun Devils are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after two or more consecutive losses. Bet Washington State Wednesday.
|03-10-21||NC State v. Syracuse -2.5||Top||68-89||Win||100||3 h 45 m||Show|
20* NC State/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -2.5
The Syracuse Orange have been trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch. They've done a really good job of coming up clutch and have saved their best basketball for last.
Indeed, the Orange are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Duke and Georgia Tech. They are 2-0 SU against NC State this season with a 76-73 home win and a 77-68 road win. It's not hard to beat a team three times in a season, either.
NC State is now getting too much respect from the books after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite not having their best player in Devon Daniels. But only one of those wins came against a tournament team with wins over Notre Dame, Pitt (twice) and Wake Forest. That's far from impressive.
Kevin Keatts is 4-12 ATS when revenging a home loss as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Syracuse Wednesday.
|03-09-21||BYU v. Gonzaga -14||78-88||Loss||-109||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* BYU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -14
Gonzaga will be highly motivated to cap off a perfect 26-0 season here and give themselves the opportunity to be the first team since Indiana to go the entire season with an unbeaten record by winning the NCAA Tournament. Look for them to get the win and cover against BYU today for a number of reasons.
The biggest is that the Bulldogs made easy work of Saint Mary's yesterday in a 78-55 win as 18-point favorites. They also got to play the early game, and then rest and watch BYU in the late game. So they will have a rest and preparation advantage here over the Cougars.
Meanwhile, BYU trailed for 95% of the game against Pepperdine and needed a comeback to force overtime. The Cougars eventually won 82-77 as 8.5-point favorites, but their starters were forced to play big minutes because of it. They had five difference players play 30 minutes or more. They were still playing at 2:30 AM EST, and now they have to try and get ready for the Bulldogs for a 9:00 PM EST tip.
Gonzaga beat BYU 86-69 at home and 82-71 on the road in the first two meetings. Note that both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final score showed. Gonzaga raced out to a 52-29 lead at halftime in that 17-point home win before calling off the dogs in the 2nd half. Gonzaga then led BYU 70-49 with under 8 minutes left in the 2nd meeting. The Cougars outscored them by 10 the rest of the way to only lose by 11. I don't think the Bulldogs will leave the back door open in this third and final meeting of the season and will cruise to victory.
The Cougars are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as underdogs. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The favorite is 16-6-4 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Roll with Gonzaga Tuesday.
|03-09-21||Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8||77-80||Loss||-109||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have packed it in and are ready for their season to be over. They have lost seven straight and are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off an 83-73 upset home win over Florida State that shows their potential here in the ACC Tournament. They are the team that cares right now and the one that should win this game in blowout fashion similar to the 79-58 beat down they put on Wake Forest back on February 2nd in their lone meeting this season.
Wake Forest is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in six or more consecutive games. The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Notre Dame Tuesday.
|03-09-21||Oakland v. Cleveland State -2||Top||69-80||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
20* Oakland/Cleveland State ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland State -2
The Cleveland State Vikings improved to 18-7 SU & 16-8-1 ATS on the season after their come from behind win over Milwaukee 71-65 in the semifinals. The way they won that game in comeback fashion after beating Fort Wayne in OT has them brimming with confidence and ready to win the Horizon League Championship and punch their spot in the big dance.
I actually think they take a step down in competition here against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, who are 12-17 SU this season. The Golden Grizzlies are one of the worst teams you will ever see in a conference title game.
Cleveland State went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Oakland this season, winning and covering both meetings on the road. Now they should make it a clean 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS sweep of the Golden Grizzlies here on a neutral Tuesday night.
The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The Vikings are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as favorites. Cleveland State is 12-0 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make less than 42% of their shots over the last two seasons. Oakland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. Bet Cleveland State Tuesday.
|03-09-21||Pepperdine +9 v. BYU||Top||77-82||Win||100||14 h 0 m||Show|
20* Pepperdine/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +9
Pepperdine beat Santa Clara 78-70 as 4-point favorites on Saturday in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament. They now have a day off in between games and there should be no rust factor with them tonight.
I think there could be a rust factor here for BYU. The Cougars got a bye into the semifinals and haven't played since February 27th. They have had the last eight days off now. At the very least, I expect them to get off to a slow start in this game, which is going to make it difficult for them to win by double-digits and cover this spread.
After losing 54-65 as 11-point underdogs at BYU and shooting just 28.8% as a team, the Waves got their revenge at home in the rematch. They pulled the 76-73 upset as 6.5-point home dogs over the Cougars despite shooting just 3-of-16 (18.7%) from 3-point range. So they've proven they can play with BYU twice despite poor shooting. And just a slight improvement in that department could have them winning this game outright again.
The Waves are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Pepperdine is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Waves are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Pepperdine is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 neutral site games as an underdog. Bet Pepperdine Monday.
|03-07-21||Michigan v. Michigan State +8.5||Top||64-70||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5
You can pretty much throw out Michigan State's 50-69 loss at Michigan last time out. The Spartans shot 36.4% as a team including 0-for-9 (0%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again.
Now the Spartans want revenge against their biggest rivals here and to prove that they are a much better team than they showed on Thursday. After all, the Spartans had gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games with upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State.
Now the Spartans get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will make a huge difference. Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, including those upset wins over Illinois (81-72) as 6.5-point dogs and Ohio State (71-67) as 4-point dogs. I don't see Michigan being as motivated in the rematch after just beating them by 19, so that letdown factor will help us get the cover here too.
The Spartans are 54-23-3 ATS in their last 80 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Michigan State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Michigan. Bet Michigan State Sunday.
|03-07-21||Texas Tech +8 v. Baylor||73-88||Loss||-110||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +8
The Baylor Bears have been overvalued since returning from a three-week COVID break. The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games since returning. They only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost to Kansas by 13 as 4.5-point favorites and failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against Oklahoma State. Their only cover was an overtime win as 3.5-point favorites at West Virginia, so they should be 0-4 ATS.
I'll gladly fade the Bears again here as they continue to be overvalued as 8-point home favorites over Texas Tech. This is a Red Raiders team improving rapidly down the stretch under one of the best head coaches in the country in Chris Beard. And you know they are going to want revenge from a 60-68 home loss to the Bears earlier this season.
Texas Tech is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with a 9-point win over Texas as 3.5-point favorites, a 20-point win over TCU as 13-point favorites and a 27-point win over Iowa State as 17.5-point favorites. It has been hard to get margin on the Red Raiders as they have only been beaten by more than 8 points once in their last 22 games overall. That makes for a 21-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread. Take Texas Tech Sunday.
|03-07-21||Memphis +10.5 v. Houston||64-67||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +10.5
The Memphis Tigers (15-6) are trying to make the NCAA Tournament. A win over Houston today would cement their spot in the Big Dance. And they have been playing well enough here down the stretch to give the Cougars all they can handle.
The Tigers are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to SMU 65-67. Six of those nine wins have come by double-digits. They have the confidence right now to hang with Houston.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cougars. While the Tigers are getting zero respect here for what they have done recently, the Cougars are getting a ton of respect for their recent results. They just beat Cincinnati by 38, WKU by 24 and USF by 36 in their last three games coming in with three straight covers. They aren't going to get that kind of margin on this much better Memphis squad.
Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or fewer. Memphis has just one loss to Houston by double-digits in the last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with Memphis Sunday.
|03-06-21||Butler +12.5 v. Creighton||73-93||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +12.5
The Creighton Bluejays are going through some turmoil right now with head coach Doug McDermott using the word plantation recently. He said it following their 69-77 loss to Xavier two games ago, and they proceeded to trail by as many as 22 points in a 60-72 loss to Villanova in their last game. McDermott has since offered to resign.
I just don't trust the state of this Bluejays' team right now, and they certainly shouldn't be laying 12.5 points to a Butler team that already beat them 70-66 at home earlier this season as 7-point dogs. So now the Bluejays are 12.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment that is not warranted.
That's especially the case when you consider the Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are coming off two straight upset wins over Seton Hall (61-52) as 7.5-point dogs and Villanova (73-61) as 11.5-point dogs. And they've been off since February 28th, so they are rested and ready to go. Creighton just played on March 3rd and has only two days to get ready for this game.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Butler) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Butler Saturday.
|03-06-21||Illinois v. Ohio State -2||Top||73-68||Loss||-110||7 h 55 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2
Ohio State is my favorite play of the entire 2020-21 college basketball season Saturday. I just love the spot for them. I know they are going to put forth their best effort of the season after coming in off three consecutive losses. They hadn't even lost two in a row at any other point this season until now.
So it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Buckeyes off those three straight losses, and a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois off three consecutive wins and covers. The last two were in upset fashion as they won at Wisconsin and at Michigan despite not having their best player in Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG). He is likely to be out again for this game as the Fighting Illini already have the No. 2 seed locked up in the Big Ten Tournament.
Ohio State has a lot to play for here as it is battling with Purdue for 4th place in the Big Ten, and the top for teams all get double-byes in the Big Ten Tournament. It's also Senior Day for the Buckeyes. And they are the more rested team having five days to get ready for this game since last losing to Iowa on February 28th. Illinois only has three days to get ready after beating Michigan on March 2nd. That win over Michigan, coupled with being locked into the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, has the Fighting Illini primed for a letdown today.
The extra rest was needed for the Buckeyes. "Our whole team needs rest and we've got to get healthy," head coach Chris Holtmann said. "We had basically a third of our team that wasn't able to really practice much at all last week, or at least very limited. We've got to get as much as we can, get healthy and back to practicing and then move forward and recognize and own those things we've got to get done better collectively."
Senior forward Kyle Young returned from injury for the Iowa game but wasn't at his best. He should be much sharper with the extra time to get ready for this game. Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last five meetings with Illinois, including an 87-81 road win in their first meeting this season. Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when revenging an upset loss as a favorite. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. Ohio State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-06-21||Villanova v. Providence UNDER 140||52-54||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Providence UNDER 140
Villanova and Providence both prefer to play at slow tempos. Both are elite defensive teams as well. And both should struggle on offense today, especially Providence, which shoots just 43.4% as a team. But they stay competitive by holding the opposition to 43.9% shooting and limiting possessions.
We saw that in their first meeting with Villanova this season. Providence actually led 27-24 at halftime before getting their doors blown off in the second half. The Wildcats pulled away for a 71-56 victory in a game that saw just 127 combined points. Now this total has been set at 140 in the rematch, which is way too high.
That's especially the case when you consider Villanova just lost second-leading scorer Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) to a season-ending injury in their 72-60 win over Creighton last time out. They'll have to rely even more on their defense moving forward if they are going to make a run in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.
Each of the last four meetings between Providence and Villanova have seen 135 or fewer combined points and an average of just 124.5 combined points per game. That's 15.5 points less than this total of 140. So the books have missed their mark badly here and we'll take advantage. The UNDER is 23-7 in Friars last 30 games as home underdogs. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|03-06-21||Indiana v. Purdue -6.5||58-67||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -6.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three wins by double-digits and a 4-point win over Wisconsin as a 2-point favorite.
Indiana has gone the other direction, playing its way out of the NCAA Tournament by going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with all four losses by 6 points or more. Things got worse for the Hoosiers recently with the loss of second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 45% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury. The Hoosiers already rely too heavily on Jackson-Davis to get their offense, and now without Franklin (doubtful) that is even more the case. Race Thompson (9.6 PPG) is also questionable for this one.
Purdue already beat Indiana 81-69 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with six of the last seven wins coming by 7 points or more. And the Boilermakers won't have a letdown in the rematch. They are trying to clinch the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten, meaning they'd get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament as each of the top four seeds are awarded one. It's also Senior Day for the Boilermakers. Roll with Purdue Saturday.
|03-06-21||Indiana State +11 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||49-65||Loss||-105||3 h 20 m||Show|
20* Indiana State/Loyola-Chicago MVC No-Brainer on Indiana State +11
I cashed in Indiana State yesterday and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons. This team just does not get the respect they deserves from oddsmakers and hasn't been for a few months now.
While Loyola-Chicago and Drake grab all the headlines in the Missouri Valley, it's Indiana State that has been just as good as both here down the stretch. The Sycamores are 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. And prior to this stretch they upset Loyola-Chicago 76-71 as 8-point dogs and lost 48-58 as 8-point dogs in the rematch, so they've already proven they can play with the Ramblers.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ramblers due to being ranked in the Top 25 after going 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall. But they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with very few blowout victories in there. That's with the exception of their 73-49 win over Southern Illinois yesterday, which they are being overvalued for. Southern Illinois was missing its top two scorers and had no chance of even being competitive in that game. This is a huge step up in class for the Ramblers today.
Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 60 points or fewer in its previous game. The Sycamores are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Indiana State has lost just one of its last 18 games by more than 10 points, which was a 12-point loss in the season finale to Valpo after beating them by 15 the previous day. They didn't care about that game, and they didn't have their best player in Tyreke Key (17.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who returned to score 19 points and grab nine boards against Evansville yesterday.. That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Sycamores pertaining to this 11-point spread. Take Indiana State Saturday.
|03-05-21||Georgia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest||Top||75-63||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have won five straight games and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They have put together this streak under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament. They are still a bubble team right now and that's why I'm not worried about them having a letdown following the big win over Duke on Tuesday.
Wake Forest has totally packed it in. The Demon Deacons have lost six straight with each of the last five losses coming by 13 points or more. They lost by 13 to Pitt, by 38 to Virginia Tech, by 21 to Clemson, by 18 to NC State and by 24 to Duke. Those five losses have come by an average of 22.8 points per game.
Georgia Tech already beat Wake Forest 70-54 as a 9-point home favorite in their first meeting this season. The Yellow Jackets are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. Bet Georgia Tech Friday.
|03-05-21||Evansville v. Indiana State -5||43-53||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Indiana State -5
Loyola-Chicago and Drake get all the headlines in the Missouri Valley. But Indiana State has quietly been one of the most dominant teams in the conference here down the stretch. And they should make easy work of Evansville in their conference tournament opener Friday afternoon.
The Sycamores are 10-2 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Two of those games were against Evansville. They won 76-70 at Evansville and 87-73 at home in the rematch. And now they are laying just 5 points here against the Purple Aces.
While the Sycamores are surging right now, the Purple Aces are just 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall. All seven of those losses came by 6 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive as well.
Indiana State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 60 points or less. Evansville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Sycamores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Indiana State Friday.
|03-04-21||Warriors v. Suns UNDER 224.5||98-120||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Warriors/Suns UNDER 224.5
The Phoenix Suns have been one of the slowest teams in the NBA due to having Chris Paul at point guard. They rank 29th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game. Only the Knicks play at a slow tempo than they do.
But the reason the Suns sit atop the Pacific Division standings is because they are a great defensive team. The Suns rank 6th in defensively efficiency. And most wouldn't know this, but the Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in ranking 5th in defensive efficiency.
The Warriors just got Wiseman and Looney back from injury recently to shore up their interior defense. Neither of these players add much offensively. And the Warriors are a tired team after losing 106-108 in Portland last night, so they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. It will affect their shooting more than their defensive effort.
Looking at the head-to-head history in this series, it's mind-blowing that the oddsmakers have set this total so high tonight. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings, including combined scores of 207, 214, 218 and 201 points in the last four meetings. That's an average of just 210 combined points per game, which is 14.5 points less than this 224.5-point total.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors last six games following a loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four games playing on zero rest. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last five road games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five Thursday games. Combine these four trends with the 7-0 UNDER head-to-head trend and we have a 27-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-04-21||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 219||107-102||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 219
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have already played twice this season, and familiarity favors defense. And based off those first two meetings, I cannot believe the books have set this total as high as they have tonight at 219 points.
The Spurs won the first meeting on January 12th 112-102 on the road for 214 combined points. The Thunder got revenge in the rematch with a 102-99 victory on February 24th and just 201 combined points. That game took place just over a week ago, so these teams are really familiar with one another.
The Spurs are hurting offensively right now with all their injury and COVID issues. The Thunder have scored 78 and 96 points in their last two games coming in and have been held to 102 or fewer points in four of their last five. They are an atrocious offensive team, but they have held six of their last seven opponents to 109 points or fewer and continue to get after it defensively.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Thunder last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 46-21-1 in Thunder last 68 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 7-1 in Spurs last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-04-21||Nebraska +17.5 v. Iowa||Top||64-102||Loss||-109||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +17.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten down the stretch. They are making big strides under Fred Hoiberg, one of the best coaches in the country. He is proving his coaching chops with this team down the stretch.
Indeed, the Huskers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over Penn State as 11-point road dogs, Minnesota as 2.5-point home dogs and Rutgers (by 21) as 8-point dogs. They also covered in an 8-point loss at Maryland as 10.5-point dogs, in a 3-point loss to Penn State as 6.5-point dogs and in a 5-point overtime loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs. Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 14 games by more than 18 points, and any of its last 10 games by more than 17 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.
Iowa is way overvalued now after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall, including a shocking 73-57 win at Ohio State as underdogs last time out. Now this is a sandwich spot for them coming off two straight games against Michigan (lost by 22) and Ohio State, and with huge rival Wisconsin on deck Sunday. I don't expect the Hawkeyes to play with the kind of effort needed to put away Nebraska by 18-plus points tonight.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Nebraska) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-18 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Nebraska Thursday.
|03-04-21||UCF -2.5 v. East Carolina||64-60||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5
The UCF Knights are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only losses came by a combined 2 points with one-point losses to both Cincinnati (68-69) and Wichita State (60-61), which is how close they are to being on a seven-game winning streak.
Now the Knights should make easy work of an East Carolina team coming off nearly a month layoff due to COVID. Of course they are going to be rusty having last played on February 8th. This athletic Knights team will test their conditioning from the first tip.
UCF won 71-64 at home over East Carolina in the first meeting this season to improve 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins coming by 3 points or more. East Carolina is 0-7 ATS when attempting to revenge a road loss this season. Enough said. Bet UCF Thursday.
|03-04-21||Heat v. Pelicans OVER 227||Top||103-93||Loss||-105||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* Heat/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 227
I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust. I cashed in their OVER last night, and they haven't adjusted enough tonight either. The OVER is 26-4 in Pelicans last 30 games overall. The OVER is 13-1 in Pelicans last 14 games as well.
The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 13 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime. They have combined with their opponents to average 244.5 points per game at the end of regulation in those 13 games. That's still nearly 18 points more points than this total of 227. The OVER is 16-2 in Pelicans last 18 home games as well.
The Heat have gotten healthier here of late and have scored 108 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall. They can pretty much name their number against this awful Pelicans defense that has allowed at least 113 points in 12 consecutive games.
Plays on the OVER on home games where the total is 210 or higher (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 43-12 (78.2%) since 1996. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|03-04-21||Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor||Top||70-81||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +12
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be catching 12 points from Baylor. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma (twice). They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.
Now they take on a Baylor team that just hasn't been playing well since returning from a three-week COVID pause. The Bears only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost outright by 13 at Kansas as 4.5-point favorites, and were fortunate to win by 5 at West Virginia in overtime and cover the 3.5-point spread last time out.
Now the Bears in a very tough spot here as they have had just one day to get ready for Oklahoma State. They had to travel all the way from West Virginia on Tuesday night back to Baylor. So they are going to be a tired team, especially after needing OT to beat West Virginia. It's hard to imagine they will be in great shape physically after that COVID pause already, which has played a big role in their recent struggles.
Oklahoma State comes in on two days' rest and highly motivated for revenge after letting the first meeting with Baylor get away from them late in the 2nd half, turning a close game into a 15-point loss. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Plays on road teams (Oklahoma State) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1997. Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.
|03-04-21||Michigan State +12 v. Michigan||50-69||Loss||-109||8 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +12
I've been riding this Michigan State train and I'm not about to stop now as the books have undervalued them yet again here Thursday as 12-point underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines. This is simply too many points for a Spartans team that is once again improving late in the season under Tom Izzo, which seems to happen every year.
Fighting to make the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans have come through in a big way in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State as underdogs as well as a second win over Indiana. Now they are ready to take on a team like Michigan.
The Wolverines showed they were vulnerable last game by losing 53-76 at home to Illinois as 8.5-point favorites. That was an Illinois team playing without Ayo Dosunmu, their best player. Michigan State recently beat Illinois with Dosunmu in the lineup 81-72 as 6.5-point home dogs. Now Michigan would be without its best player in Isaiah Livers (14.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG), who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered in that loss to Illinois.
The Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan. They haven't lost any of the last seven meetings by more than 11 points, making for a 7-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 12-point spread. They won't go down without a fight tonight. Roll with Michigan State Thursday.
|03-03-21||UCLA v. Oregon -4.5||74-82||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5
Oregon has come out the other side of their early COVID problems and are hitting on all cylinders right now. They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road at USC. This run has put themselves in position to win the Pac-12 and steal the title from UCLA with wins in their final two regular season games.
UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall and faltering here down the stretch. The Bruins choked in their last game with a 61-70 loss at Colorado, blowing a 57-55 lead with 8:11 remaining. They couldn't handle the pressure of trying to win the Pac-12 in that game, and I don't expect them to handle it very well here at Oregon either.
The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings in this series, including a 96-75 home win for Oregon over UCLA last year. The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Ducks are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games. Oregon is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Oregon Wednesday.
|03-03-21||Creighton v. Villanova -4||Top||60-72||Win||100||28 h 49 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -4
This looks like the perfect spot to back Villanova. We will 'buy low' on the Wildcats after they just lost outright to Butler as an 11.5-point favorite. They had beaten St. John's and Connecticut by a combined 31 points in their two games prior.
So the lost to Butler was clearly an aberration. The Wildcats were probably looking ahead to this game against Creighton. They want revenge on the Bluejays in a big way. They lost 70-86 at Creighton on February 13th about three weeks ago. Everything went right for Creighton in that game as they shot 59.3% from the field and 46.2% from 3-point range compared to just 37.5% shooting for Villanova. That's not going to happen again.
Villanova is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 16.1 points per game. Creighton is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games, including an 8-point loss at Xavier last time out. The Wildcats are 35-15-2 ATS int heir last 52 games following an ATS loss.
It's also worth noting Creighton is dealing with some turmoil within their program. Head coach Doug McDermott used the word 'plantation' while ripping his team and had to come out and apologize for it. At the very least it's a distraction they don't need right now. At the most it will have caused some chemistry issues. Either way I love the spot for the Wildcats. Take Villanova Wednesday.
|03-03-21||Bulls v. Pelicans OVER 236.5||Top||128-124||Win||100||28 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 236.5
I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust. They haven't adjusted enough tonight. The OVER is 25-4 in Pelicans last 29 games overall. The OVER is 12-1 in Pelicans last 13 games as well.
The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 12 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime. They have combined with their opponents to average 243.9 points per game at the end of regulation in those 12 games. That's still 7 more points than this total of 236.5. The OVER is 15-2 in Pelicans last 17 home games as well.
These teams just met on February 10th less than a month ago. They combined for 245 points in that game with a 129-116 victory by Chicago. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with an average combined score of 240.8 points per game. The fact of the matter is they just can't set these Pelicans totals high enough. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|03-02-21||Nuggets v. Bucks -7||Top||128-97||Loss||-110||11 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -7
Giannis Antetokounmpo is back to playing at an MVP level. He has scored 35 or more points in four consecutive games. A big reason for his and the Bucks' success is the return of Jrue Holiday to the lineup at point guard to help open everything up for everyone else. He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Plus, Khris Middleton has had two 30-point games in his last four contests.
The result has been the Bucks living up to their potential of late in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by an average of 9.6 points per game. Now the Bucks are primed for another big performance here as they have the huge rest adavantage as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.
Meanwhile, Denver will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days. The Nuggets haven't had two straight days off since the beginning of February. Injuries are mounting up as the Nuggets are now without Green, MIllsap, Harris and Campazzo. Being short-handed right now makes this situation even more difficult for them. They needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Bulls 118-112 last night, meaning their starters had to play big minutes as Jokic played 38, Barton 36, Porter Jr. 35, Murray 35 and Morris 33.
The Nuggets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Milwaukee gets the win and cover tonight and continues its recent surge in this favorable spot. Bet the Bucks Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Wisconsin v. Purdue -2||Top||69-73||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Purdue ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Purdue -2
The Purdue Boilermakers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Two of their losses came by a combined 4 points on the road while the other was a home loss to Michigan, which is the best team in the Big Ten.
Now the Boilermakers have their sights set on a Wisconsin team that is struggling mightily to score the basketball right now. The Badgers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They haven't topped 69 points in any of their last six games, and they have been held to 72 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Purdue is 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Wisconsin. The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being Purdue's upset win at Wisconsin a few years back.
Wisconsin is 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season. Take Purdue Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Knicks v. Spurs UNDER 215.5||93-119||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA TOTAL OF THE DAY on Knicks/Spurs UNDER 215.5
The San Antonio Spurs are short-handed right now due to COVID-19 protocols. They will definitely be on tired legs tonight after losing 113-124 (OT) to the Brooklyn Nets last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.
Now the Spurs take on a Knicks team that will play right into their favor and not try and push the tempo. That's because the Knicks rank dead last in pace at 30th and 98.4 possessions per game. The Knicks are also just 23rd in offensive efficiency this season. They are an UNDER bettors' dream.
The Knicks are 23-12 UNDER this season, including 14-3 UNDER in their last 17 road games. The Spurs are 6-3 UNDER in their last nine games overall. San Antonio is not a very good shooting team and that has been a big reason why they rank just 20th in offensive efficiency this season. The Knicks are 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are a solid 13th.
San Antonio is 7-0 UNDER after losing two of its last three games this season. The UNDER is 7-0 in Knicks last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The UNDER is 7-0 in Spurs last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Duke v. Georgia Tech -2||Top||77-81||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -2
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets want revenge from a 68-75 loss at Duke on January 26th. I like their chances of getting that revenge at home this time around when you consider how well they are playing right now, plus the fact that they simply do not lose at home.
The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only loss came on the road by 2 as 4-point dogs at Clemson. They have since won four straight with 6 and 7-point home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, respectively, plus blowout road wins over Miami by 27 and Virginia Tech by 16.
Duke suffered a crushing overtime loss to Louisville last time out on February 27th. They had won four straight against a pretty soft schedule prior to that. Now they have almost no chance of making the NCAA tournament with that Louisville defeat without making a run in the ACC Tournament.
The task is a very tall one here for the Blue Devils, who hit the road and face a Georgia Tech team that is 13-1 SU in its last 14 ACC home games. It's a veteran Yellow Jackets team that is highly motivated to make the NCAA Tournament. This senior-laden team is primed for one of their best performances of the season here on Senior Night.
Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following three or more consecutive wins. Duke is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Blue Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Indiana v. Michigan State -2.5||58-64||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -2.5
The Michigan State Spartans are making a run at the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite being underdogs in all four games. They upset both Illinois and Ohio State at home during this stretch.
The other win was a 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs. That line was way off, and this line still is off with the Spartans being only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch. The Spartans are surging right now, while the Hoosiers are falling flat on their faces under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.
Indeed, Indiana is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. Its only win during this stretch came at home against Minnesota, which remains winless in Big Ten play. They lost by 19 at Ohio State, by 7 at home to Michigan State, by 11 at Rutgers and by 16 at home to Michigan.
Trayce Jackson-Davis had 34 points against Michigan State in that first meeting, and it still wasn't enough. That's because he just doesn't have much help on the perimeter. And making matters worse is the fact that the Hoosiers just lost their best guard in Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to an ankle injury, and he will be out tonight. They will miss his 45% shooting from 3-point range as none of their other regulars shoot it better than 39%.
Michigan State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Indiana with 15 of those wins coming by 3 points or more. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.
|03-02-21||Clippers -4 v. Celtics||112-117||Loss||-106||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers. They have gone just 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall. But a lot of that had to do with injuries. The Clippers are now fully healthy and will be. force moving forward. And keep in mind those four losses came to the Bucks, Grizzlies, Nets and Jazz. They also avenged both of those losses to the Jazz and Grizzlies.
Now the Clippers will be out for revenge from a 115-119 home loss to the Celtics on February 5th less than a month ago in which they blew a 62-51 halftime lead. The Celtics are much worse off now as they are without Marcus Smart and could be without Jaylen Brown, who is questionable with a knee injury.
The Celtics have gone just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games since that win over the Clippers. But they are starting to get some respect tonight after two straight wins over the Pacers and Wizards by a combined 7 points. They faced a Wizards team that was on the 2nd of a back-to-back and only won that game by a single point. And that is a Pacers team that is struggling mightily right now. This will be a big step up in class for the Celtics tonight.
This is a very resilient Clippers team that has only lost two in a row once all season. They are 10-1 SU in their 11 games following a loss this season. Los Angeles is now 41-16 ATS in its last 57 games following a SU loss. The Clippers are 45-21 ATS in their last 66 games as road favorites. Boston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Boston. Take the Clippers Tuesday.
|03-01-21||Air Force +19 v. Colorado State||Top||44-74||Loss||-113||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Air Force +19
Air Force will be out for revenge from a 49-72 road loss at Colorado on Saturday. That was a 41-46 game with just under 10 minutes to play, so it turned from a 5-point game into a 23-point game in the final 10 minutes. I know because I had Air Force +18 and it was a tough beat.
But I'm back on the Falcons today in the rematch. I was surprised to see Colorado State shoot so well in their first game back from a three-week COVID pause. That shot 61% from the field and 9-of-22 (40.9%) from 3-point range. That's the kind of effort it took for them to cover that massive number.
Conversely, Air Force shot just 41.5% as a team and 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range. They are a better shooting team than that as they make 34.2% from 3-point range on the season and should improve in that department. Just a slight improvement shooting and slightly worse effort from the Rams in the shooting department will have the Falcons covering this 19-point spread tonight.
Air Force is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games after a game with 16 or fewer rebounds. That first meeting was a very low-possession game as both teams attempted only 41 shots. Low-possession games definitely favor the underdog and make it tougher for the favorite to cover lofty spreads like this one.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Air Force) after going under the total by 24 points or more in thier last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 30 or more points in their last five game sure 80-36 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Air Force Monday.
|03-01-21||Oklahoma -1.5 v. Oklahoma State||75-79||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -1.5
The Oklahoma Sooners will be out for revenge from a 90-94 (OT) loss to Oklahoma State Saturday. They don't have to wait long to get their revenge here as they get to face the rival Cowboys just two days later. I think the Sooners will be the more motivated team and will get the job done tonight.
The Sooners had won eight of their previous nine games before losing their last two. The Cowboys have won four straight now and will be feeling fat and happy after beating the Sooners on Saturday. And I like the line value on the Sooners based on line from the first meeting. Oklahoma goes from being a 6-point home favorite to a 1.5-point road favorite in the rematch.
The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after three or more consecutive wins. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Sooners. Take Oklahoma Monday.
|03-01-21||Nets v. Spurs +6||124-113||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6
The San Antonio Spurs got a nice break with nine days off here recently. They returned and were rusty in a 99-102 loss at Oklahoma City. But they bounced back with a 117-114 home win over the Pelicans on Saturday. The rust is knocked off now, and they are rested and ready to go while primed to pull an upset against the Brooklyn Nets in San Antonio tonight.
The Nets just had their eight-game winning streak snapped with a 98-115 home loss to the Mavericks on Saturday. I always like fading teams the game after their winning streak ends, because there always seems to be a hangover factor.
The Nets are overvalued as it is after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, so it's definitely time to 'sell high' on them. Especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now with Kevin Durant out, Green and Luwawu-Cabarrot questionable, and Irving battling a shoulder injury.
The Spurs are 22-2 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets. San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The Spurs are 11-2 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season. San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Roll with the Spurs Monday.
|03-01-21||Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 235.5||Top||124-129||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pelicans OVER 235.5
The Pelicans are 24-4 OVER in their last 28 games overall. They are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games. And those numbers would be 25-3 and 12-0 if you got the OVER 228 opener like I did in their last game against the Spurs, which closed at 232.5 and finished at 231.
The Pelicans have now combined with their opponents for 231 or more points in 11 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime. They have averaged 243.1 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last 11 games, which is still nearly 8 points higher than this posted total of 235.5.
The OVER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games overall with combined scores of 233 or more points in four of those five games. The Jazz have scored at least 112 points in 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 games overall. They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, which explains the big run they are on in winning 23 of their last 26 games overall.
One of those wins came 129-118 over New Orleans on January 21st in a game that saw 247 combined points. They had 139 combined points at halftime and cruised to an easy OVER. I expect it to be more of the same in the rematch as this game easily tops 235.5 combined points.
The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 Monday games. The OVER is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings. The OVER is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in New Orleans. The OVER is 14-2 in Pelicans last 16 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games as home underdogs. New Orleans is 7-0 OVER when revenging a road loss this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|02-28-21||Hawks v. Heat -6||Top||99-109||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -6
The Miami Heat are as healthy as they've been all season and it's starting to pay dividends. The Heat have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have beaten the defending champion Lakers, the 2019 champion Raptors and the team with the best record in the NBA in the Utah Jazz during this stretch.
Now the Heat host a struggling Atlanta Hawks team that is as banged up as they have been all season. The Hawks are just 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 9-point road loss to the Thunder as 5.5-point favorites. They were also upset at Cleveland as 8-point favorites in their previous road game.
The Hawks have now lost five of their last six road games and are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Trae Young is battling a groin injury and is questionable to play today. Cam Reddish is doubtful with an Achilles, and they are already without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. It's no wonder they are struggling so much of late.
The Heat have won four of their last five meetings with the Hawks with three of those wins coming by 9 points or more. Miami has a chance to get to .500 for the first time since the beginning of the season, so they should be motivated here and won't be taking the Hawks lightly. Roll with the Heat Sunday.
|02-28-21||Iowa v. Ohio State -3.5||Top||73-57||Loss||-110||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are on their first two-game losing streak of the entire season. They lost to Michigan and Michigan State by a combined nine points their last two games while letting both games slip away late. It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory here at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
While I believe Ohio State is absolutely legit and one of the best teams in the country, the Iowa Hawkeyes are frauds. They rely too much on one player in Luka Garza, and they always seem to fade late in the season. That has been the case again this season as they have gone just 5-5 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are coming off a 22-point loss at Michigan.
Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they just lost backup center Jack Nunge (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury in that loss to Michigan. He was huge for this team in backing up Garza because he's always in foul trouble. The Buckeyes should be able to expose an already soft Iowa defense today.
They did just that in their 89-85 road win at Iowa in their first meeting this season. That was a rare road win in this series as the home team had won and covered four straight meetings prior. The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with Iowa with their last two wins coming by 20 and 18 points.
Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK. The Hawkeyes are 20-41-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games. Ohio State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss. Bet Ohio State Sunday.
|02-28-21||Michigan State +3 v. Maryland||55-73||Loss||-100||5 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Michigan State +3
The Michigan State Spartans always seem to improve down the stretch under Tom Izzo. And they have been doing the same this season as they try and get themselves into the NCAA Tournament field. This team is playing inspired basketball right now and is exactly the type of team I want to continue backing.
Indeed, the Spartans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an upset 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs, an upset 82-71 home win over Illinois as 6.5-point dogs and an upset 71-67 home win over Ohio State as 4-point dogs.
Now the Spartans face their weakest opponent in a long time here in Maryland, a team they should be favored against. The Terrapins are just 14-10 this season. But they are starting to get respect from oddsmakers due to a four-game winning streak against the bottom of the conference. They have wins over Nebraska (twice), Minnesota and Rutgers during this stretch. This is a step up in class here against a Michigan State team that is playing its best basketball of the season.
Michigan State 7-2 SU in its last nine meetings with Maryland with the two losses coming by 3 and 7 points. The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Terrapins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Maryland is 1-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a road game. Take Michigan State Sunday.
|02-27-21||Loyola Marymount +25 v. Gonzaga||69-86||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +25
Gonzaga is overvalued right now due to its No. 1 ranking and undefeated 23-0 record. I successfully faded them with Santa Clara +30.5 in 75-89 loss to the Bulldogs on Thursday. And I'm certainly going to back a better team here in Loyola-Marymount catching 25 points against them tonight.
Loyola-Marymount is 12-7 this season with its largest margin of defeat coming by 17 points to BYU and by 15 to Minnesota. So the Lions haven't even come close do losing by this kind of margin all season. I get that it's Gonzaga and their best opponent yet, but it's still too many points.
The Lions are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game as well. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset road wins over both San Francisco 68-63 as 5.5-point dogs and Pepperdine 81-74 as 5-point dogs.
Few teams in the WCC have played Gonzaga as tough as Loyola-Marymount in recent years. Indeed, four of the last five meetings were decided by 18 points or less with the Lions going 4-1 ATS in those five meetings.
Loyola-Marymount is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games after playing their last game on the road. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Loyola-Marymount Saturday.
|02-27-21||Pelicans v. Spurs OVER 228||Top||114-117||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 228
Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS. Those are the three things you can count on in life right now. And we'll keep backing this OVER train as the books have not set the number high enough today against the San Antonio Spurs.
The OVER 24-3 in Pelicans last 27 games overall, including 11-0 in their last 11 games. They have combined with their opponents for 231 or more points in 10 consecutive games coming in. Only one of those games went to overtime. They have averaged 244.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those 10 games. That's 16.3 points higher than this total set of 228.
The Spurs and Pelicans have combined for 235 or more points in four of their last six meetings. The OVER is 16-1 in Pelicans last 17 games after allowing 115 points or more last game. The OVER is 17-1 in Pelicans last 18 games after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games this season. New Orleans is 9-0 OVER after a combined score of 245 or more points this season. Enough said. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|02-27-21||Wolves v. Wizards -4.5||112-128||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -4.5
The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Beal and Westbrook have formed a great chemistry and they have gotten most of their players healthy, which has made a huge difference in their recent surge.
It's not like the Wizards are beating up on cupcakes, either. They have won outright as 6.5-point dogs at Boston (104-91), as 4.5-point dogs at Portland (118-11), as 7-point dogs at the Lakers (127-124), and as 8-point dogs at Denver (112-110). They also upset Denver (130-128) as 4.5-point home dogs and crushed Houston (131-119) as 2-point home favorites. Their only loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Clippers the night after beating the Lakers in OT, so it was understandable.
The Wizards won't be losing to the awful Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. The Timberwolves are 5-26 SU in their last 31 games overall, including 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last nine losses coming by 4 points or more.
They are one of the most tired teams in the NBA right now playing their 16th game in 27 days. They haven't had two days off in a row since January 16th and 17th. Things have only gotten worse now as Malik Beasley (20.5 PPG) has been suspended for the next 12 games. He was one of the few bright spots on this team. The Timberwolves are still without De'Angelo Russell (19.3 PPG, 5.1 APG) as well.
Minnesota is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with the Timberwolves. Roll with the Wizards Saturday.
|02-27-21||Southern Illinois +19 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||58-65||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +19
I cashed in Southern Illinois +20 yesterday in a 60-52 loss to Loyola-Chicago with the spread never in doubt. I'm back on them today for many of the same reasons in the rematch.
Loyola-Chicago is overvalued right now after going 13-1 in its last 14 games overall. I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is once again way out of hand with the Ramblers being 19-point favorites against a very competitive Southern Illinois team.
The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 14-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games. Since they have 18-point favorites or higher four times and failed to cover in all four of those games. I cased in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively. I also cashed in Valpo +19 in their 2-point loss and then Southern Illinois +20 in their 8-point loss.
It's still a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall. But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number. In their two games prior to this series they lost to Valpo by 1 and beat them by 3 in the rematch to give them a recent common opponent.
Loyola-Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games. The Ramblers play at a slow tempo and have been held to 60 or fewer points in three straight games coming in. It's difficult for them to cover these huge numbers when they play at such a slow tempo and don't get many shots up. The Ramblers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Southern Illinois Saturday.
|02-27-21||TCU v. Iowa State||76-72||Loss||-110||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State PK
The Iowa State Cyclones have been knocking on the door of their first Big 12 victory. They are 0-14 in Big 12 play, but 8-6 ATS as they have several close losses against some of the top teams in the conference. They will be highly motivated to erase that zero from the win column today, and I believe it's their best chance to get a victory all season.
Iowa State has losses to Baylor by 5 and 11 points, WVU by 4 and 5 points, Texas by 6, and Oklahoma by 7 and 10 points. They can play with anyone in this conference. Now they will be looking for revenge from a 76-79 loss at TCU on February 9th in their first meeting this season. They simply went cold from the field in the 2H and allowed the Horned Frogs to come back on them. This team keeps playing hard, and eventually the breaks are going to fall their way late in games. I think that is today.
TCU is just 2-8 SU in its last 10 games overall with its two wins both coming at home by a combined 6 points, including that 3-point win over the Cyclones. Seven of the eight losses have come by 8 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.
The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. Iowa State is a sensational 31-5 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK. TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a home conference loss. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|02-27-21||Air Force +18 v. Colorado State||49-72||Loss||-109||6 h 29 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +18
This is a great spot to fade the Colorado State Rams. They will be rusty as they will be returning from a three-week COVID break with their last game played on February 6th. They won't be sharp enough to put away Air Force by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this ridiculous spread.
Air Force is undervalued right now due to its 5-17 SU record. But the Falcons finally put an end to their 10-game losing streak with a win over New Mexico last time out. And they have been competitive during this skid with each of their last seven losses coming by 13 points or fewer.
Air Force is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. The Falcons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. Roll with Air Force Saturday.
|02-27-21||Illinois v. Wisconsin -4||Top||74-69||Loss||-110||5 h 35 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4
The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 60-75 road loss at Illinois on February 6th earlier this month. I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Illinois is without its best player for this game, and arguably the best player in the country.
Ayo Dosunmu (21.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG) is out with a broken nose right now. I think the Fighting Illini are getting too much respect from the books after covering as 14-point favorites over Nebraska in an 86-70 win in their first game without him. This will be a much taller task against the Badgers today. Dosunmu became the third player in Illinois history with a triple double with 21 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds in that first meeting.
While Illinois has just one day to get ready for Wisconsin after playing Nebraska on Thursday, the Badgers have had the last five days off to get ready for the Fighting Illini. That huge rest and preparation advantage will pay big dividends for the Badgers this afternoon.
The Badgers are 56-36 ATS in their last 92 home games after a win by 15 points or more. The favorite is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.
|02-26-21||Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 233.5||121-130||Loss||-104||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 233.5
The Golden State Warriors and Charlotte Hornets will be playing in a rematch tonight from Charlotte's 102-100 win on February 20th. So they will meet less than a week later after combining for just 202 points in that game. And the total has been set at 233.5 points for the rematch, which is way too high when you consider familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.
Charlotte actually shot 49.3% as a team and 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only scored 102 points. It was played at a very slow pace, and I think this rematch could be just as slow or even slower based on recent developments on the injury front for the Warriors.
Golden State just got back two post players in Wiseman and Looney, which will force them to play bigger lineups and will also help them out defensively as Wiseman is an eraser. They held the Knicks to 106 points and the Pacers to 107 points in their two games since both guys returned. Those games saw just 220 and 218 combined points.
Plays on the UNDER on home games where the total is 230 or higher (Golden State) - in non-conference games off a road win are 37-9 (80.4%) since 1996. Charlotte is 21-5 UNDER in its last 26 games with a total of 230 or higher. Golden State is 8-1 UNDER In its last nine games following two consecutive road games.
The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with the last three seeing 202, 197 and 180 combined points. All seven saw 231 or fewer combined points with an average of just 205.1 combined points per game. That's more than 28 points less than this 233.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|02-26-21||Southern Illinois +20 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||52-60||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +20
Loyola-Chicago is way overvalued right now after going 12-1 SU in its last 13 games overall. I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is way out of hand with the Ramblers being 20-point favorites over a very competitive Southern Illinois team.
The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 13-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games. Since they have been 18-point favorites or higher three times and failed to cover all three of those games. I cashed in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively. And last time out I cashed in Valpo as 19-point dogs in a 2-point loss to Loyola-Chicago.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-11 SU in its last 15 games overall. But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number. And they just lost by 1 and beat Valpo by 3 in their last two games to give them a common opponent with the Ramblers.
Southern Illinois is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games off a close home win by 3 points or less. Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games.
Plays on road teams (Southern Illinois) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Southern Illinois Friday.
|02-26-21||Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 225||Top||119-99||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 225
I cashed in the Grizzlies +8 in their 122-94 upset win over the Clippers last night. Now I like the UNDER in the rematch tonight after seeing just 216 combined points in that first meeting. Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games, so we'll take the UNDER tonight.
Memphis isn't going to shoot 54.3% overall and 57.9% from 3-point range like they did last night. The Clippers won't shoot as poorly as they did, but in the end it will be a similarly low scoring game that stays well UNDER this 225-point total.
The Grizzlies are a much better defensive team now that they got a lot of guys back from injury, including Brandon Clarke, Justice Winslow and Kyle Anderson who are all great defenders. Clearly that showed last night as they stifled the Clippers, who are tough to tame.
And the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA themselves led by Kawhi and Patrick Beverly. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Clippers are just 27th in pace while the Grizzlies are 14th.
The UNDER is 24-8 in Grizzlies last 32 home games. The UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|02-26-21||Jazz v. Heat +6.5||Top||116-124||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +6.5
Whether or not the Utah Jazz keep covering, you're paying a tax to bet them now because the verdict is out on them. That's because they have gone 22-2 SU & 21-3 ATS in their last 24 games overall. My job is to find value, and there's definitely value in fading the Utah Jazz moving forward due to the streak they've been on.
I'll pick my spots, and this looks like a great spot to fade the Jazz. The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 94-112 loss at Utah on February 13th less than two weeks ago. The Heat have gotten a lot healthier since and get them at home this time around.
The Heat are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four wins by 8 points or more and an upset road win over the Los Angeles Lakers. They have gotten several key players back from injury recently including Goran Dragic, and they could get Tyler Herro back tonight. This is pretty much as healthy as they have been all season.
We saw what they could do when healthy last season in making it to the NBA Finals. And after digging themselves an early hole, this team is playing with a sense of urgency right now. Jimmy Butler and company will relish this opportunity for revenge and to put an end to this Utah streak. We'll get one of the biggest efforts of the season from the Heat tonight, which should be enough to cover this 6.5-point spread and possibly win outright. Bet the Heat Friday.
|02-26-21||Pacers v. Celtics -2.5||112-118||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics, who are coming off three straight road losses to the Pelicans (OT), Mavericks (by 3) and Hawks (by 15). That loss to the Hawks was on the 2nd of a back-to-back so it is understandable.
Now the Celtics are back home tonight and had yesterday off to rest. The Celtics were last seen destroying the Hawks by 12, the Nuggets by 13 and the Raptors by 14 in three of their last five home games. And they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.
The Pacers just aren't very good since trading away Victor Oladipo and getting an injury Caris LeVert back for him. T.J. Warren being out has also hurt. The Pacers are just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Their four wins came against the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks and Timberwolves. They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road underdogs tonight to a superior Celtics team.
The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Boston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Celtics are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after playing two consecutive road games. Boston is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. Take the Celtics Friday.
|02-25-21||Wizards +7.5 v. Nuggets||Top||112-110||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7.5
The Washington Wizards are way undervalued right now. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with upset road wins over the Blazers and Lakers, as well as upset home wins over Boston and Denver. Their only loss during this stretch came on the road to the Clippers last time out, which came the night after their upset win over the Lakers in OT, so they were a tired team.
The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season as they are 17-14 SU & 13-18 ATS. They are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Injuries have taken their toll as the Nuggets are without Harris, Millsap, Green, Dozier and Whittington. They just can't be laying 7.5 points to this surging Wizards team tonight given their current injury situation.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - a tired team playing six or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-21 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Denver is 4-12 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 points per game or more this season. The Nuggets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Wizards Thursday.
|02-25-21||Ohio State v. Michigan State +4||67-71||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +4
The Michigan State Spartans have finally turned the corner and are making a late-season push to make the NCAA Tournament. Tom Izzo-coached teams always get better as the season goes on, and it's finally happening for this Spartans team.
They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Indiana 78-71 as 6.5-point road underdogs and Illinois 81-72 as 6.5-point home underdogs. Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to Ohio State tonight in a game they should be favored in.
This is a tough spot for Ohio State. They are coming off a deflating 87-92 home loss to their biggest rivals in the Michigan Wolverines. It pretty much assured that they wouldn't be winning the Big Ten this season. They blew a late lead in that game. I think they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Michigan State tonight. Plus, they will be without one of their better players in Kyle Young (8.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who is out with a concussion suffered against Michigan.
Michigan State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Ohio State. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after going over the total in two or more consecutive games. Michigan State is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Spartans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs. Take Michigan State Thursday.
|02-25-21||Clippers v. Grizzlies +8||94-122||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after losing by 31 to Phoenix and by 10 to Dallas in its last two games coming in. But the Grizzlies just got back Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson from injury and recently got Justice Winslow back.
There was going to be some rust and chemistry issues with all these players returning, but they should be less now. The Grizzlies have had the last two days off to get some rest and get some practice in together. Look for them to come out hitting on all cylinders tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers, who have won six of their last eight with their only losses coming to Utah and Brooklyn. They are coming off a 19-point blowout win over the Wizards last time out. But that was a tired Wizards team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime win over the Lakers the night before. Take the Grizzlies.
|02-25-21||Santa Clara +30.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||75-89||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
20* WCC GAME OF THE MONTH on Santa Clara +30.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the No. 1 ranked team in the country. With that ranking and their unbeaten 22-0 record comes a following from the betting public that makes them overvalued. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs tonight.
Santa Clara (10-6) is one of the better teams in the conference and very capable of staying within this ridiculous 30.5-point spread. Their largest loss of the entire season came by 23 points, and that was at USC. If they can stay within 23 points of that very good USC team, you have to like their chances of covering this huge number.
Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less this season. The Bulldogs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. They have covered each of their last three games and are overvalued because of it. It's time to fade them. Bet Santa Clara Thursday.
|02-25-21||Western Kentucky +12 v. Houston||57-81||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +12
This game means a lot more to Western Kentucky (15-4) than it does Houston. The Hilltoppers could get into the NCAA Tournament with an upset win here. They are a senior-laden team that returned all five starters and a win over No. 12 Houston would really help their cause.
"These kinds of opportunities are something that we kind of cherish a little bit," Hilltoppers coach Rick Stansbury said. "You don't get a lot of them. Sometimes you've got to back into them every once in a while. It's very obvious if you watched them Sunday you can understand why there aren't a lot of takers to go to Houston opportunity-wise, we just felt like there is a lot more to gain than there is to lose. As a coach, as a player, everybody else, you just want an opportunity to play against the best, and there's no doubt they are one of the best teams in the country. It's very obviously a great challenge for us, but at the same time a great opportunity."
I think that quote says all you need to know about what this game means for the Hilltoppers as they will be more motivated for a win in this game than at any other point all season. They've already shown they can play with some elite teams. They only lost by 6 to West Virginia on a neutral and actually upset Alabama on the road. That win over Alabama looks really good right about now.
The Hilltoppers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs. Western Kentucky is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Cougars have recent upset losses to Wichita State 63-68 and East Carolina 73-82, so they are far from invincible. And they shouldn't be laying double-digits here against this underrated Hilltoppers squad. Roll with Western Kentucky Thursday.
|02-24-21||Florida State v. Miami-FL +11.5||88-71||Loss||-110||10 h 0 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami +11.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Miami Hurricanes tonight. They have lost three straight coming in including a 60-87 loss to Georgia Tech last time out. Now the Hurricanes are in their largest underdog role (+11.5) of the entire season tonight.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Florida State Seminoles. They have won three straight and eight of their last nine coming in. But they are just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with a 10-point loss to Clemson and an 11-point loss at Georgia Tech. They only beat Pitt by 7 on the road and won by 13 at Louisville in their one standout road performance.
Miami is going to want revenge from a 59-81 road loss at Florida State as 11.5-point underdogs on January 27th. The Hurricanes have gotten a lot healthier since that point and are now catching 11.5 points again at home this time around. So there has been zero adjustment for home-court advantage and there should be at least a little.
Miami recently upset Duke 77-75 as 11-point home dogs and took Virginia Tech to OT as 5-point home dogs in two of its last three home games. They also upset Louisville as 4.5-point home dogs. They have played their best basketball at home this season.
The Seminoles are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games into the season. The Hurricanes are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. Take Miami Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Wolves v. Bulls -4||Top||126-133||Win||100||28 h 54 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4
The Chicago Bulls have won four of their last five games coming in. Their only loss came by 7 as 6.5-point closing road underdogs to the 76ers. If you bet the Bulls early you won on them as they got steamed and gave the 76ers all they could handle.
I love this favorable spot for the Bulls tonight. They had Tuesday off while the Minnesota Timberwolves had to play in Milwaukee. Not only will this be the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, it will also be their 6th game in 9 days and their 3rd straight road game.
This will also be the 15th game in 25 days for the Timberwolves, who simply have to be the most tired team in the NBA right now. Amazingly, they haven't had more than one day off in a row since January 16th and 17th. It's no wonder they are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall. They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bulls tonight, either.
Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are 3-14 on the road this season and losing by nearly 10 points per game. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 130 points or more last game. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Tulane +11.5 v. Memphis||Top||46-61||Loss||-115||28 h 56 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +11.5
I've been riding this Tulane train and will continue to do so Wednesday. The Green Wave are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They haven't lost any of those seven games by more than 8 points.
Their only non-cover came by 1.5 points in a 3-point loss to UCF as 1.5-point underdogs. UCF couldn't miss as they went 14-of-26 from 3-point range, yet the Green Wave still managed to make a game of it and only lose by 3 points. That's just how well they are playing right now.
Now the Green Wave take on a Memphis team that has been off since February 6th due to a COVID break. We saw Memphis return from a similar length COVID break last time and lose outright to Tulsa. There will be a similar rust factor involved in this return as well, and they should not be laying this big of a number to a Tulane team playing their best basketball of the season. It's also worth noting Tulane only lost by 6 to Memphis at home in their first meeting this season and will want some revenge.
Memphis spent 10 of the days doing zero team activities and conditioning. Penny Hardaway noted how out of shape his players were when they returned to practice finally. And I think the Tigers are just getting too much respect right now after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They won't return the same team they were prior to this COVID pause.
Tulane is 7-0 ATS in in its last seven games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Tulane is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more last game. The Green Wave are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Green Wave. Take Tulane Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Warriors v. Pacers -2||111-107||Loss||-110||28 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2
This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a hard-fought game in New York last night. It will also be the 4th road game in 6 day for the Warriors.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have gotten a nice break and it has had nothing to due with COVID. It was simply the weather in Texas. All teams would kill for a break right now like the one the Pacers just got. I think they come back re-energized and they needed the break being short-handed with TJ Warren and Caris LeVert both remaining out and after trading away Victor Oladipo.
The Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on zero rest. Indiana is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 meetings with Golden State. The Pacers are 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. Indiana is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and averaging 120.5 points per game.
Plays on home favorites (Indiana) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.
|02-24-21||Temple +5.5 v. South Florida||65-47||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +5.5
The Temple Owls will be out for revenge from a 76-83 home loss to South Florida on Sunday. Now the Owls get their shot at revenge and come back as 5.5-point underdogs after being just 2-point dogs in their first meeting. This is too big of an adjustment.
Temple committed 17 turnovers compared to just 7 for South Florida in the first meeting, which was the difference. They won't be so sloppy with the ball as the Bulls rarely force turnovers at this kind of rate. In fact, the 17 turnovers were the most they forced in any game all season. And Temple had 14 or fewer turnovers in nine of their previous 11 games, so they do a pretty good job of holding onto it.
Temple is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games off a home loss. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet Temple Wednesday.
|02-23-21||Ole Miss v. Missouri -3||60-53||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri -3
The Missouri Tigers want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season just two weeks ago. They lost 59-80 at Ole Miss on February 10th. The Tigers now come back as only 3-point home favorites in the rematch, and I look for them to get their revenge and cover this short number.
Missouri is 8-2 at home this season with wins over the likes of Alabama and Illinois. Ole Miss is 4-5 on the road this season and coming off a poor 56-66 home loss to Mississippi State. They had won four straight prior to that defeat, which I think has them overvalued.
Plus the fact that they already beat Missouri by 21 has them overvalued as well. Missouri is undervalued after losing three of its last four, but it ended a three-game skid with a 15-point win at South Carolina last time out.
Ole Miss is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after winning two of its last three games coming in. The Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Missouri Tuesday.