15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +8.5

This is a massive letdown spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are coming off a 62-61 win at Kansas as 13.5-point underdogs in their Big 12 opener.  It was the first time since 1991 the Jayhawks opened 0-1 in conference play.

The Mountaineers won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, which hung tough with Houston at home in its Big 12 opener.  I think the Cowboys are very live underdogs today given the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.

The Mountaineers will be without Tucker DeVries (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 BPG) and could be without Amani Hansberry (10.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG), who is questionable.  They aren't good enough without these two to be laying this big of a number.  

The Cowboys are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* Buffalo/Liberty Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo ML -127

Sometimes bowl games are all about motivation.  And I have no doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in the Bahamas Bowl against Liberty.  They will also be the better team considering all the players that Liberty is missing.

Expectations were very low for Buffalo this season.  First-year head coach Pete Lembo took over a 3-9 team and turned the Bulls into a contender in the MAC despite being picked by most to finish near the bottom of the conference.  The Bulls went 8-4 this season with all four losses coming to bowl teams in Ohio, WMU, UConn and Missouri.  They also beat fellow bowl teams NIU and Toledo, who both won their bowl games.  Those six bowl teams went a combined 5-1 in bowl games.

Liberty failed to even make the championship game of the worst conference in the country in C-USA.  They were odds-on favorites to win the conference coming in.  They lost to Sam Houston State in their regular season finale, needed OT to beat a terrible UMass (2-10) team, and had several other questionable efforts throughout the season including an outright loss to Kennesaw State (2-10).  They also needed OT to beat awful FIU (4-8).

The biggest loss for the Flames is QB Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado to try and take the place of Shedeur Sanders.  Three starters along the offensive line hit the transfer portal, as did starting DL Dixon and DL Nairne.  Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will start at QB.  All six players in the portal won't play in the bowl game and head coach Jamey Chadwell said he expects more opt-outs.  Starting S Quinton Reese and starting TE Bentley Hanshaw didn't play in the finale due to injuries.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the exact same depth chart for the bowl game as it did in the regular season finale.  The Bulls went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games outscoring those opponents by a combined 67 points. Their offense is humming scoring 37 or more points in five of their last six games.  They want to be here and the Flames don't.  I also believe the Bulls are the better team in their current state.  Bet Buffalo on the Money Line in the Bahamas Bowl Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 235.5

Since losing their best defender in Aaron Gordon to injury, the Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team.  They have inserted Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in place of Gordon, and Westbrook is a dead nuts OVER play adding a lot on offense but taking away a lot on defense.

The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last nine games overall with 250 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  These games have been flying OVER the total.  They combined for 259 with Atlanta, 253 with Utah, 255 with Detroit, 284 with Cleveland, 261 with New Orleans, 250 with Portland and 259 with Sacramento.

The San Antonio Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing more high scoring games as a result.  The OVER is 8-4 in Spurs last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 242 or or combined points in three of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +2.5

This is a tough spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 118-115 win in Minnesota last night.  Four of five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.

They were without both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis and there's a good chance both of them sit tonight.  They could elect to rest one of either Tatum, Horford, Holiday or White who were the five starters to play at least 35 minutes last night.

The Houston Rockets are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  The Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA going 22-11 SU & 20-13 ATS this season.  They will be licking their chops at the opportunity to take down the defending champs at home tonight.

The Celtics have been grossly overvalued this season after winning the title last year.  They are just 12-20-1 ATS in all games.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 232

The Washington Wizards finally have both Poole and Kuzma on the court at the same time, which has been rare this season.  They are dead nuts OVER team with these two on the court because they are both scorers on offense and terrible defenders on defense.

The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, which makes them a dead nuts OVER team.  They take on a New Orleans Pelicans team that ranks 29th in defensive rating, so these are two of the four worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall with 227 or more combined points in all five games.  They combined for 256 with Memphis, 239 with Houston and 261 with Denver.  They are healthier than they have been in a long time too and Murray, Murphy III and McCollum are all good offensive players but not good defenders.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Wizards and Pelicans.  The last two have been crazy high scoring combining for 259 points in New Orleans and 264 points in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1

No conference has a better home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  I think we are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in a battle between two pretty evenly-matched teams.

Ohio State is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming by a single point.  The Buckeyes are playing very well here of late including a 85-65 win over Kentucky on a neutral as 8.5-point dogs two games ago.  They won their lone conference home game 80-66 as 5-point favorites over Rutgers.

Michigan State will be playing just its 2nd true road game this season.  The first was a win against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Minnesota.  This is going to be the toughest test of the season for the Spartans tonight.  Their two losses came to Memphis and Kansas on a neutral.  

The Buckeyes are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Spartans.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

20* Minnesota/Virginia Tech Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on Minnesota -7

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games as the head coach at Minnesota.  Few coaches take bowl games more seriously than Fleck does.  And I expect him to have his guys ready to go for the Mayo Bowl against Virginia Tech Friday.

The Gophers have been an undervalued commodity all season going 7-5 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in all games this season.  They aren't the most flashy team, but they do have the best passing game they've had in a long time, and they are still great on defense and in the running game which is the case every year under Fleck.

QB Max Brosmer was a great addition in the transfer portal.  He is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Gophers have scored at least 24 points in six of their last eight games and finished strong, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games.  That includes a 1-point loss to Penn State and a 7-point loss at Rutgers.  They beat Wisconsin by 17 on the road, Illinois by 8 on the road, Maryland by 25 at home, UCLA by 4 on the road and USC by 7 at home.

Minnesota has yet another elite defense ranking 12th in the country allowing 17.5 points per game and 7th in total defense at 290.9 yards per game.  The Gophers will likely have a few players sit including RT Phillip Daniels and OT Aireontae Ersery, but there losses aren't nearly as big as what Virginia Tech is dealing with.

Indeed, the Hokies will be missing a ton of starters.  They will be without starting LT Xavier Chaplin, starting C Braelin Moore, starting CB Mansoor Delane, starting S Mose Phillips, LB Sam Brumfield, LB Keli Lawson and RB Malachi Thomas.  DE Powell-Ryland, DT Peebles, WR Felton, WR Lane and CB Strong have all opted out.

That doesn't even include the fact that the Hokies will be missing their two best players on offense in QB Drones and RB Tuten.  Tuten, RG Moore, DT Pene and SS Jenkins all weren't spotted at a recent practice, so the Hokies could be down as many as 14 starters.  It will either be backup QB Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.  What a mess.  Bet Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl Friday.

15* North Texas/Texas State First Responder Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -13.5

This is much more of a fade of North Texas than a play on Texas State.  The players the Mean Green will be missing in this game will be too much to overcome, and I fully expect them to get blown out by the Bobcats in the First Responder Bowl.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris has left for Virginia.  He is completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,774 yards with a 31-to-12 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 242 yards and four TD.  That leaves true freshman Drew Mestemaker to start in his place, and those are some massive shoes to fill considering Mestermaker has only attempted five passes all season.

But that's not where it ends.  Leading WR DT Sheffield (66 receptions, 822 yards, 11 TD) has committed to Rutgers.  Starting T Oscar Hammond (19, 238 1 TD) has committed to ORegon State.  Starting C Tyler Mercer and starting LG Leke Asenuga are also both out.  Starting OT Larry Moore is out with an injury.  The Mean Green will be relying on a ton of freshmen on offense, and I just don't think they'll have the firepower to keep up with Texas State.

That's especially the case considering Texas State has an explosive offense and will be up against one of the worst defenses they've seen all season in the Mean Green.  North Texas ranks 121st in scoring defense at 34.5 points per game, 127th in total defense at 456.6 yards per game and 108th at 6.1 yards per play.

Texas State only allows 24.2 points per game, 347.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play to compare, so they have by far the superior defense.  The Bobcats went 7-5 SU this season but were much better than that record would indicate.  Four of their five losses came by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  That includes a 3-point loss to Arizona State, which made the four-team playoff.

The Bobcats will only for sure be without three starters to the transfer portal and possibly five or six.  The biggest of note is RB Ismail Mahdi (991 yards, 4 TD, 5.4/carry).  But backup RB's Pare (404 yards, 6 TD, 5.5/carry) and Burgess (344 yards, 2 TD, 6.4/carry) are ready to fill his shoes.  

There are rumors QB Jordan McCloud may not play significant snaps since I released this play, but backup RJ Martinez is an intriguing transfer from Baylor.  He has completed 18-of-24 passes this season.  Whoever is under center will have three 600-yard receivers at his disposal as none of the receivers have opted out.

North Texas went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its final six games of the season.  The Mean Green needed a 24-17 win at lowly Temple (3-9) in their finale just to make a bowl game.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without Morris, Sheffield and several others.  Bet Texas State in the First Responder Bowl Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +17.5

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Gaels are just 3-10 ATS in lined games this season.  Recent results for them have been very concerning.

In their last three games they only beat Merrimack by 5 as 20.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Utah State by 7 as 5.5-point home favorites and only beat Pacific by 10 as 20.5-point home favorites.  Now they are laying 17.5 points to an underrated Pepperdine team.

The Waves are grossly undervalued going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 7 to Gonzaga as 20.5-point home dogs last time out to show their potential.  They lost by 11 at Santa Clara as 15-point dogs, crushed UC Davis by 39 as 1-point home favorites and also covered in wins over NAU and Grambling.  That 7-point loss to Gonzaga says all you need to know about their potential.  Bet Pepperdine Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/UMKC OVER 157

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1-1 OVER in all lined games this season.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 80.0 points per game.  They rank 6th in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.

Kansas City has let opponents get up quick shots all season as they rank 40th in average length of possession on defense.  They are also a pretty poor defensive team ranking 207th in adjusted defense.  They shoot a ton of 3-pointers ranking 43rd in 3PA/FGA, which will help the OVER as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat OVER 223.5

This total is way too low for a game involving the Pacers and Heat.  Each of the last six meetings between the Pacers and Heat have seen 227 or more combined points, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223.5-point total.

Both the Pacers and Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and clicking offensively.  The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last four games overall with 232 or more combined points in all four games.  The Heat have gone for 227 and 230 combined points in two of their last three games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Knicks OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

This total of 230.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

The New York Knicks have had a huge switch this season from a defensive team to an offensive team simply with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Knicks actually rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  They have really slipped defensively ranking 14th in that category.

The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons ML -120

The Orlando Magic are without Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  Jalen Suggs is banged up and Anthony Black (8.5 PPG) is questionable.  That's so much production they are without right now, and I don't think they should be listed close to a PK on the road at Detroit tonight.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and playing as well as they have all season as a result.  The Pistons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, winning 133-125 as 6-point dogs at Phoenix, 117-114 as 6-point dogs at the Lakers and 114-113 as 5-point dogs at Sacramento.  Their lone loss came by 13 on the road at Denver.

The Pistons have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They will also be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  It will be the 4th game in 7 days for the Magic, so the Pistons have a big rest advantage as well.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55

This is a rematch from a 32-31 win by Oregon on October 12th.  Honestly, the 63 combined points was about the minimum they could have scored when you look at the box score.  Oregon had 496 total yards and Ohio State had 467, so they combined for 953 total yards.  There were four field goals including three of 27 yards or fewer.  And Ohio State should have had another FG to win the game but mismanaged the clock in the closing seconds.

It was one of Will Howard's best games of the season for Ohio State as he went 28-of-35 passing for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.  Dillon Gabriel went 23-of-34 passing for 341 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Both teams have weaknesses in the secondary that will be exploited again in the rematch.

Ohio State got conservative late in the season.  Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly made the proper adjustments heading into the playoffs and opened it up against a very good Tennessee defense.  The Buckeyes put up 21 points in the 1st quarter before anyone could blink in a 42-17 win over Tennessee.  Howard finished 24-of-29 passing for 311 yards and 2 TD with one INT against that stout Tennessee defense.  Kelly and Howard will keep their foot on the gas this week.

Oregon got a much-needed bye after an ugly win at Wisconsin.  The Ducks came out of that bye with their hair on fire on offense.  They blasted Washington 49-21 before topping Penn State 45-37 in a shootout in the Big Ten Championship Game.  It's tough to get in a shootout with Penn State because they are suspect on offense and elite on defense.  It just goes to show what Oregon is capable of on offense, and their their defense is overrated.

Penn State managed 518 total yards against Oregon.  Of course, Ohio State put up 467 yards on the Ducks in that first meeting.  Their defense is definitely their weakness.  But Oregon is elite on offense. They Ducks rank 13th in scoring at 35.9 points per game, 14th in total offense at 449.8 yards per game and 15th at 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive playing in the rugged Big Ten.

Oregon has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 12 games and will likely get to 31 or more here.  I expect Ohio State to get into the 30's as well in what will be another shootout as neither defense has an answer for these two elite offenses, especially now that the Buckeyes have opened things up.  Bet the OVER in the Rose Bowl Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 228

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-11 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 7th in pace this season which is a deadly combination.  They are playing faster and shooting a lot more 3's this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in Lakers last three games overall with 254, 228 and 231 combined points.  They have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games overall.  The only exception was when they were held to 103 points by the Kings the game after playing the Kings, so they were both very familiar with how to stop one another.

The Cavaliers have scored at least 124 points in five of their last six games overall, and 113 or more points in 12 consecutive games coming in.  The Cavaliers beat the Lakers 134-110 for 244 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Boise State/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Boise State +11

From a line value perspective there's clearly value on Boise State.  Penn State just hosted SMU and was a 9-point favorite at home.  That game was played in extremely cold weather against a warm weather team in the Mustangs.  I believe Boise State is better than SMU, especially considering as of this writing the ACC is 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS in bowl games now.

Now Penn State is an 11-point favorite over Boise State on a neutral in Glendale, AZ where the Broncos will have the majority of the fans.  This line is way out of whack and it should be Penn State -7 or less.  I'll gladly take the value and back the Broncos, who also have the rest and preparation advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.

Boise State is 12-1 SU this season with its only loss coming 37-34 at Oregon, which remains unbeaten and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That game was every bit as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos actually outgained the Ducks 369 to 352 for the game.

Boise State also beat Washington State 45-24 back when Washington State was good.  The Broncos also beat UNLV twice this season having to beat them in the Mountain West Championship Game to make the four-team playoff.  That's a very good UNLV team that is also grossly undervalued.

Penn State has always struggled in big games under James Franklin.  Franklin is 3-19 SU against Top 10 teams as Penn State's head coach, including 1-14 SU against Top 5 teams.  Just this season alone the Nittany Lions lost 20-13 at home to Ohio State and 45-37 on a neutral to Oregon.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Boise State lost 37-34 to Oregon, but that was on the road in Eugene, which is a huge difference.  Penn State got to play Oregon in Big Ten country in Indianapolis.

I also think Penn State's misleading 38-10 win over SMU in the opening playoff game is giving them too much respect here.  Their first two scores of the game were pick-6's that totally changed the game.  It looked like SMU was going to score and take the lead twice early, but the two pick 6's flipped it.  Penn State only had 325 total yards against a shaky SMU defense.  The Mustangs were also missing several key players that led to their success during the regular season.

Boise State has tremendous balance even though star RB Ashton Jeanty gets all the credit.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring offense at 39.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 470.2 yards per game and 6th at 6.8 yards per play.  They average 250.5 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry, which ranks 5th and 2nd respectively, but they also throw for 219.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  

The strength of their defense is stopping the run which makes this a good matchup for them against run-heavy Penn State.  The Broncos allow 115.1 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry this season.  They also create a lot of havoc in opposing backfields.  Bet Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +3.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Spartans have gone a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Even their losses were impressive recently as they lost by 6 at New Mexico as 19.5-point road dogs and by 2 to Boise State as 8.5-point home dogs.

Now the Spartans face one of the most overrated teams in the country in Colorado State, which is 7-6 SU & 4-9 ATS this season.  The Rams just lost by 8 at home to New Mexico as 1-point favorites to give them a common opponent with San Jose State, which gave the Lobos more of a fight on the road to boot.

Colorado State lost by 17 at Colorado and by 15 to Ole Miss on a neutral.  They were upset by UCRiverside at home and really just don't have many good wins.  They needed OT to beat Tennessee State early in the season at home which was a sign of things to come for the Rams.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +9.5

Arizona State is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They got blown out by Duke in exhibition season and have been undervalued since.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS this season despite facing a brutal schedule.

The Sun Devils have faced the 49th-toughest schedule int he country.  Their two losses came to Florida and Gonzaga, which are both Top 10 teams.  They beat the likes of New Mexico, St. Mary's, Grand Canyon and Santa Clara.  I would put BYU in the same category as those four teams in terms of talent level.

BYU is 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS this season against a much softer schedule.  In fact, the Cougars have played the 361st-ranked schedule in the country.  Only three teams have faced an easier schedule.  BYU lost by 11 to Ole Miss and by 19 to Providence, and that loss to Providence looks really bad.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Arizona State Tuesday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -115

The Baylor Bears are quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the country heading into bowl season.  They were a hail mary and OT loss to Colorado away from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, and may very well be the actual best team in the Big 12.

The Bears are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall beating Texas Tech by 24 on the road, Oklahoma State by 10 at home, TCU by 3 at home, West Virginia by 14 on the road, Houston by 10 on the road and Kansas by 28 at home.  That win over the Jayhawks in the regular season finale was mighty impressive considering Kansas was 5-6 on the season and desperate to get to a bowl game after beating both BYU and Colorado the previous two weeks.

This Baylor offense is hitting on all cylinders.  The Bears have scored at least 37 points in five of their last six games while averaging 41.3 points per game and 505.5 yards per game in their last six games.  They have tremendous balance and play at a break-neck pace.  Sawyer Robinson is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He has thrown for 2,626 yards with a 26-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 227 yards and four scores on the ground.

Baylor has very few key players in the transfer portal and very few injuries.  They are expected to get a pair of LB's back from injury as well who missed the finale.  Head coach Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at LSU when they won the National Championship.  He would love nothing more than to beat his former team.

While Baylor is going to have basically all hands on deck, LSU is going to be missing several key players.  Both starting offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones as well as TE Mason Taylor (55 receptions, 546 yards, 2 TD) have declared for the NFL Draft.  Leading WR Kyren Lacy (58 receptions, 866 yards, 9 TD) has opted out and fourth-leading WR CJ Daniels (42 receptions, 480 yards) has committed to Miami.  Starting S Sage Ryan has committed to Ole Miss and fellow S Major Burns has opted out.

LSU will start three freshmen along the offensive line, and freshman Trey'Dez Green is the only scholarship TE available.  I think head coach Brian Kelly is much more concerned with locking in his roster for next season than he is about winning a bowl game, plus he doesn't have the horses to win it anyway.  

The Tigers finished 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games this season with their two wins coming at home over Vanderbilt by 7 and Oklahoma by 20, while losing by 15 at Texas A&M, by 29 at home to Alabama and by 11 at Florida.  Baylor wants to be here more and has the more talented roster in its current state.  The Bears will also have the home-field advantage with this game being played in Houston, TX.  Bet Baylor on the Money Line in the Texas Bowl Tuesday.

15* South Carolina/Illinois Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +10

The Illinois Fighting Illini flew under the radar all season going 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS.  They continue flying under the radar as double-digit underdogs to the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Citrus Bowl.

Illinois played everyone tough this season except for the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon on the road.  They also lost by 14 at Penn State in a game that was tied 7-7 midway through the 3rd quarter.  They also lost by 8 to Minnesota in what was a favorable rest spot for the Gophers.

The only opt-out for Illinois is WR Pat Bryant.  Head coach Bret Bielema said he doesn't expect any other opt-outs.  RG Zy Crisler is in the transfer portal but will play, as well WR Kenari Wilcher.  The Fighting Illini are in great shape heading into this bowl game.

South Carolina went 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season and was grossly undervalued all year as well.  And with the upset of Clemson in the season finale, the Gamecocks come into this bowl game getting a ton of respect.  They are overvalued as double-digit favorites as this line should be much closer to 3 than 10.  They also get respect because they are in the SEC.

The Gamecocks have two big opt-outs in DE Kyle Kennard and RB Rahiem Sanders.  Sanders is a huge loss because he is a great back who refuses to go down.  He rushed for 881 yards and 11 TD this season.  Kennard will be a top draft pick after registering 11.5 sacks and forcing four fumbles.  He is their best player on defense.  

The Fighting Illini haven't won a bowl game since 2011 so they will be max motivated.  Bet Illinois in the Citrus Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Notre Dame/Georgia Tech UNDER 143

Notre Dame is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Fighting Irish rank 279th in adjusted tempo and 302nd in average length of possession on offense.  They are even more of an UNDER team now that they are without their best player in PG Markus Burton (18.2 PPG).

Georgia Tech has injury concerns of its own missing G Kowacie Reeves Jr. (9.3 PPG) with fellow G Javian McCollum (10.7 PPG) listed as questionable.  The Yellow Jackets are dreadful on offense as it is.  In their last four games against respectable opponents, they scored 56 against Duke, 60 against Northwestern, 65 against UNC and 61 against Oklahoma.

I don't think either team exceeds 70 points in this one, so there is tremendous value on the UNDER 143 today.  GT and ND have combined for 138 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four regular season meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cavs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-10 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 8th in pace this season which is a deadly combination.  They are playing faster and shooting a lot more 3's this season.

The Golden State Warriors are more of an OVER team now with Steph Curry and Dennis Schroeder healthy and on the court at the same time.  They give away some defense with both of them, but they need them offensively or they are broken.

The Cavs beat the Warriors 136-117 at home for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season when the total was set at 230.  This total of 229.5 is too short given that both teams are almost fully healthy right now.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cavs last five games overall, including 284 combined points with Denver last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 games overall with 237 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without Aaron Gordon, who is their best defender.  The OVER is 5-2 in Nuggets last seven games overall with 250 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They combined for 284 points with the Cavs and 255 with the Pistons in their last two games coming in.

The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 18th.  These are two very poor defenses that like to play fast with the Nuggets 5th in pace and the Jazz 12th.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lions/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (32.9 PPG), 2nd in total offense (408.6 YPG) and 2nd in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last three weeks going 3-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay three weeks ago, but they couldn't get two weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Last week, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers are going to make this Detroit defense pay for being down so many starters, and they will punch it in for scores like the Packers and Bills did previously.  The 49ers rank 10th in total offense at 365.7 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  This is still one of the best offenses in the NFL with ample weapons to get the job done.

But this has become a leaky, banged up 49ers defense especially along the front seven.  The 49ers allowed 29 points to the Dolphins, 35 to the Bills and 38 to the Packers in three of their last five games.  They just lost LB Dre Greenlaw and DE Leonard Floyd to injuries last week against the Dolphins to make matters worse.  I fully expect the Lions to score in the 30's, and the 49ers to get into the 20's at least as this thing sails OVER 51.5 combined points.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings including the 34-31 win by the 49ers in the playoffs last season that saw 65 combined points with the Lions finishing with 442 total yards and the 49ers with 413.  Both teams are a lot worse off defensively in the rematch this time around, while both offenses are still very potent.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12

I love the spot for the Washington Wizards tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after a 136-132 (OT) loss to the Knicks at home on Saturday.  Now they get to host the Knicks two days later here and will be the much more motivated team.

The Wizards are also the fresher team playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season as Kyle Kuzma is expected back from injury tonight.

Jalen Brunson had 55 points in 44 minutes of action as all five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks in that game Saturday.  Brunson is questionable to play tonight with a calf injury.  The Knicks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days, so don't be surprised if they rest him or others.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati -3.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 10-1 SU this season with wins over Xavier and Dayton.  They will be fully motivated for their Big 12 opener tonight against a Kansas State team that has been grossly overrated this season.

The Wildcats are 6-5 SU but 3-8 ATS this season.  Their six wins have come against New Orleans, Cleveland State, Mississippi Valley State, George Washington, Longwood and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

When the Wildcats have stepped up in class they have not only lost, but they have been handled.  They lost by 11 to LSU at home, by 2 to Liberty on a neutral, by 17 at St. John's, by 3 to Drake in a semi-home game and by 19 at Wichita State.  I would argue Cincinnati is the best team they have played all season if it's not St. John's, and I do not expect it to go well for them tonight.  Bet Cincinnati Monday.

20* Falcons/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +4

This line should be 3 or less, so there's value in backing the Falcons as 4-point underdogs to the Washington Commanders.  The game means more to the Falcons too as they are life and death with the Bucs tied for first place, but they have the tiebreaker.  They need to win out because the Bucs are likely going to win out with two home games against the Panthers this week and the Saints next week.

Sure, the Commanders need one more win to assure themselves a playoff spot, but they aren't as desperate as the Falcons.  They have the beat up Cowboys next week to clinch that spot if they need it.  And that sets them up for a sandwich spot.  They are coming off a huge comeback 36-33 win over the Eagles last week after a last-second 20-19 win at New Orleans the previous week.  I question how much they have left in the tank, and they could easily not be 'all in' for this game knowing they have the Cowboys next week.  

I know the Falcons are not only 'all in' for a win this week, but also 'all in' on the decision to go with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.  He has been overlooked everywhere he has gone dating back to his time at Indiana and taking Washington to the National Championship game in college.

Penix Jr. was very impressive in leading the Falcons to a 34-7 win over the Giants in his first start last week.  He went 18-of-27 passing for 202 yards and his accuracy is a clear strength.  Even his lone INT was his TE Pitts' fault as he dropped a ball near the goal line.  Penix Jr. looked in complete control of the offense, and he is ready to open it up if he has to this week.

What is flying under the radar with the Falcons is just how dominant they have been defensively in recent weeks.  They held the Chargers to 186 total yards, the Raiders to 9 points and 249 total yards and the Giants to 7 points and 234 total yards in three of their last four games.  They are much better defensively than the Commanders.

The Falcons are also one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success here down the stretch.  The Commanders are dealing with three key injuries to WR Dyami Brown, RT Andrew Wylie and CB Marshon Lattimore, who are all three out for this game.  They really have a weak secondary that Penix Jr. can exploit without Lattimore.  And the Commanders rank 29th in the NFL in allowing 137.4 rushing yards per game and 29th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, so expect a big day from Bijan Robinson to take some pressure off of Penix Jr.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies +7

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They were already without Holmgren, and now Dort, Wallace and Caruso are out.  The lack of depth will catch up with them today.

The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-94 road win at Charlotte yesterday as 13.5-point favorites against a depleted Hornets team.  They will also be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Four starters played over 31 minutes for the Thunder yesterday.

While the Grizzlies have injuries of their own, it's something they have gotten used to the last couple season and they just play through it and have shown off tremendous depth.  Despite all the injuries, the Grizzlies are 22-10 SU & 22-10 ATS this season as one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies after having yesterday off.  They will be the fresher team, and that's worth a lot in the NBA.  I think getting +7 with Memphis is a nice value as they will be motivated to prove to the Thunder that they are the kings of the West this season.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors ML +105

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 120-110 home win over the Miami Heat last night, who were missing Jimmy Butler.  They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

After playing four straight home games, the Hawks now hit the road for the first time since December 19 and have to travel across the border to Toronto.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the 7-24 Raptors.  They are extremely banged up without Okongwu, Daniels, Bogdanovic and Nance.  I wouldn't be surprised if any of their other starters sit after playing last night, including Young and Johnson, who both played more than 35 minutes.

The Raptors continue to fight every night.  They have Barrett, Barnes, Dick and Agbagi healthy and six other key players have been upgraded to questionable, including Poeltl, Brown and Mitchell after each sat out last game.  The Raptors are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They'll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.

This is a huge step down in class for the Raptors after facing the Grizzlies and Knicks on the road and the Rockets at home in their last three games.  I think they take advantage here and put an end to their current nine-game losing streak against a brutal schedule.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -120

If both teams were max motivated and fully healthy this line would be about right.  But that's simply not the case.  The Vikings are way more motivated to win this game than the Packers, and the Vikings are also much healthier than the Packers to boot.

The Vikings are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFC and the No. 1 seed on the line.  They have to win this game to make their Week 18 game against the Lions meaningful and for all the marbles.  A loss would eliminate them from the possibility of winning the division if the Lions beat the 49ers on Monday.

The Packers are locked into the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC.  They essentially have nothing to play for because they cannot win the division even if they win this game.  They have four losses and the Lions or Vikings are guaranteed to finish with three losses at worst since they play each other next week.

The Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take an 8-game winning streak into this game with the Packers Sunday afternoon.

The Packers are going to be without three key defenders this week in LB Quay Walker, CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams.  WR Christian Watson is questionable after getting hurt last week, as is starting NB Javon Bullard.  I think the Green Bay offense is capable of going score for score with the Vikings, but the difference is the Vikings are going to score at will against this banged up Green Bay defense.

Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season with its only loss coming 31-29 to Detroit.  The Vikings are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game at home with one of the best home-field advantages in the league.  You can bet its going to be the best atmosphere for any Minnesota home game all season with what's at stake and with a division rival in Green Bay coming to town.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas Raiders ML -116

While many teams are hoping to lose out to get the best draft pick possible, the Las Vegas Raiders aren't one of them.  Anthony Pierce is a rebel and his players follow his lead.  Pierce and his Raiders treat every game like their life is at stake, and they will treat this one just the same.

The Raiders are remarkably healthy right now, and getting Aidan O'Connell back at QB means a lot to their offense.  O'Connell returned last week to throw for 257 yards in leading them to a 19-14 home win over the Jaguars.  This came on the heels of throwing for 340 yards and 2 TD against the Chiefs in the previous game he started and finished, which tells you all you need to know about what he's capable of.

The Saints are so beat up right now that they just cannot field a competitive team.  We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Derek Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

In their next game without Carr two weeks ago it was a very misleading loss to the Commanders.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.  The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

Last week, the Saints got a dose of reality in a 34-0 loss to the Packers.  Rattler was indeed rattled, and he just didn't have much help with all the players he was missing.  The Saints fell to 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in games without Carr, getting outscored by an averaged of 20.0 points per game.

Carr remains out, but the Saints lost Alvin Kamara late in that loss to the Commanders and he sat out last week and was missed.  Kamara is out again this week, as are each of their top four receivers in Olave, Means, Shaheed and possibly Valdes-Scantling.  They are also without starting C Erik McCoy on offense and this offensive line is a mash unit, giving Rattler almost zero chance to be successful.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Jazz OVER 222.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 8-1 in Jazz last nine games overall with 237 or more combined points in eight of those nine games. This total of 222.5 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Philadelphia 76ers finally have Maxey, George and Embiid on the court at the same time right now and it has made all the difference for them offensively.  The 76ers are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall scoring at least 108 points in all four wins, including 118 against the Celtics last time out in a 118-114 upset win as 9.5-point dogs on Christmas.

Now the 76ers are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Jazz team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz also like to play fast so there will be a lot of possessions in this game with them controlling the tempo playing at home.

The Jazz and 76ers have combined for 251, 229 and 235 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Unfamiliarity favors offense and high-scoring games, and these teams are unfamiliar with one another playing only twice a year in different conferences.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +6

The Detroit Pistons cap off a four-game road trip out West tonight and will be highly motivated to sweep it.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS upsetting Phoenix 133-125 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the Lakers 117-114 as 6-point dogs and upsetting the Kings 114-113 as 5-point dogs.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and grossly undervalued.  They are also rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  And that rest advantage over the Denver Nuggets is a big reason I am backing them tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team in the NBA right now. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 149-135 loss to Cleveland last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, which is as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Aaron Gordon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, and he is out right now for the Nuggets.  All five starters played at least 29 minutes for the Nuggets last night, including 40 from Jamal Murray and 36 from Jokic.  They have one of the worst benches in the NBA so they lack depth.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

20* BYU/Colorado Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on BYU +4

If both teams had all hands on deck, I'd still like BYU +4.  But while BYU has pretty much all hands on deck for this Alamo Bowl, there are big time questions surrounding Colorado's star players even though they've said they will play.  But how long they play is another story.  

I can't see QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter risking their future by playing the entire game.  So it would just be an added bonus if they decide to sit out after starting the game.  WR Jimmy Horn, WR LaJohntay Webster, WR Will Shepard and DT Chidozie Nwankwo are also potential opt-outs.  LB Nikhai Hill-Green signed with Alabama, while CB Preston Hodge and DL Amari McNeil are injured.  RT Philip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave both missed the finale, and WR Jimmy Horn missed the last couple games.

BYU should only be without one starter due to opt-out, which is S Crew Wakley.  LB Harrison Tarrart missed the finale by is on the bowl depth chart.  It looks like BYU will have their entire defense available except for Wakley.  There have been some shakeups on the O-Line due to injury, but they will be healthier there than they were in the finale.  WR Darius Lassiter will play but will sit out the first half due to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

BYU went 10-2 this season with its two losses coming by 5 at Arizona State and by 4 at home to Kansas.  The Cougars easily could have won both games as they had the ball in the final seconds looking to take the lead deep in ASU and KU territory.  Colorado went 9-3 and benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12.  They caught teams are the right times as well.

There are 5 common opponents between BYU and Colorado this season.  BYU played Arizona and Baylor very similarly to Colorado in winning both games, but BYU was much better against Kansas and Kansas State than Colorado was.  Colorado went 0-2 against those two while getting outscored by 19 points, while BYU went 1-1 against those two and outscored them by 25 points.

I know BYU head coach Kalani Sitake will have the Cougars ready to play and they are happy and motivated to be here.  The Cougars missed out on a bowl game last year for the first time since 2017, and they have only missed two bowl games since 2005.  They will be more than happy making a bowl and going for their 11th win of the season.

I suspect Colorado is more interested in hitting the transfer portal hard with Deion Sanders and company.  There are a lot of distractions with Shedeur Sanders potentially the No. 1 overall pick and having the Heisman Trophy winner in Hunter.  But that just puts and even bigger target on their back, and you can bet BYU is licking its chops at the opportunity to take them down.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Cincinnati Bengals have been in must-win mode the last three weeks and they have come up clutch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are now still very much alive to make the playoffs, and they get the exact opponent they need to beat to help their case.

The Bengals now get to host the Denver Broncos, the team they are trailing by two games with two games to go for the final wild card spot.  They would get the head-to-head win over the Broncos to give them the tiebreaker with a win, and the Broncos have the Chiefs on deck next week so it's very possible they lose out.

I think some misleading wins by the Broncos here of late have them overvalued, and the Bengals should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  The Broncos are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall but easily could have lost all four games when you dig into the box scores.

Four games ago the Bengals beat the Raiders 29-19 on the road despite getting outgained 369 to 325 by the Raiders, or by 44 yards.  Three games ago they beat the Browns 41-32 despite getting outgained 552 to 400 by the Browns, or by 152 total yards.  Two games ago they beat the Colts 31-13 despite getting outgained 310 to 193 by the Colts, or by 117 total yards.  The Colts took a TD off the board letting the ball go just short of the goal line in celebration which turned that game.  And last week they were outgained by 25 yards by the Chargers in a 34-27 road loss.

While Bo Nix and the offense have been solid, the Denver defense is the real concern here of late.  They have allowed 402.8 yards per game in their last four games, including 299.8 passing yards per game.  They have been without CB Riley Moss and fellow CB Patrick Surtain II is banged up.

That's not god news for this Denver defense having to go up against Joe Burrow and one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.  The Bengals are averaging 32.6 points per game in their last seven games.  They are averaging 313.8 passing yards per game in their last six games.  Burrow is completing 69% of his passes for 4,229 yards with a 39-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season.  I certainly trust him and his experience over rookie Nix in this game with massive playoff implications.  Bet the Bengals Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Miami Pop-Tarts Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in 10 of their 12 games.  That makes for a 10-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 55.5-point total.

They went for 80 combined points with Syracuse, 84 with Duke, 97 with Louisville, 77 with Cal and 72 with Virginia Tech in five of their last eight games.  Iowa State's strength is on offense with Rocco Becht and elite receivers on the outside.  The Cyclones average 30.2 points per game and should be able to match Miami score for score.

The key here is that neither team has many players missing this game.  Even Heisman finalist Cam Ward said he would play for Miami.  WR Xavier Restrepo hasn't decided as of this writing.  I would imagine if Ward goes then everyone will follow suit.  The Hurricanes will likely be without CB Jadais Richard, CB Dyoni HIll and DE Elijah Alston due to injuries, though.

The Cyclones have injuries of their own on defense.  S Malik Verdon is unlikely to play.  LB Caleb Bacon isn't expected back from injury.  DE Tyler Onyedim is in the transfer portal, as are DE Kenard Snyder and DE Trent Jones.  They'll be trying to stop a Miami offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 1st in total offense at 538.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.

Iowa State and its opponents have combined for at least 59 points in five of its last nine games, including 51 or more in seven of those.  Arizona State, without its best receiver, just put up 45 points and 464 total yards on the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game.  And Iowa State hasn't seen an offense nearly as potent as Miami all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry (22.5 PPG) tonight.  He means everything to them from an offensive standpoint, and the Warriors are a dead nuts UNDER team without him.

The Clippers are already a dead nuts UNDER team going 19-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in defensive rating and 25th in offensive rating and they play slow.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive rating this season.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Warriors and Clippers this season.  The first was an absolute defensive battle with the Clippers winning 102-99 at home for 201 combined points.  Curry had 26 points in that game to boot.  It will be more of the same without him tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are as healthy as they have been all season.  They remain undervalued despite being 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS this season.  They have won five consecutive games all by 10 points or more coming into this one.

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  They come out of this break motivated to beat the Denver Nuggets, a team they already handled 126-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites on December 5th in their first meeting.

Aaron Gordon had 18 points and 7 rebounds for the Nuggets in that first meeting.  Well, the Nuggets won't have Gordon this time around as he is out with calf injury.  Jamal Murray will play but is hampered by an ankle injury.  I give the Nuggets almost no shot of winning this game without Gordon.

The Nuggets played on Christmas Day in a 110-110 loss at Phoenix despite the Suns playing without Devin Booker.  They will now be playing their 4th game in 6 days tonight.  They also have to deal with the distractions that come with Christmas, and I just believe this is a gassed team right now that lacks depth.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5

There is a lot going on with this bowl game between Texas Tech and Arkansas in terms of transfers and opt-outs.  But after going through them all, it clearly looks like Arkansas has more losses and bigger losses that they will have to deal with than Texas Tech does.

Arkansas will be without its top three receivers, its top two running backs, four starting offensive linemen, two starting defensive backs, a starting safety and a starting LB and three defensive linemen.  They are down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen.  It really seems like head coach Sam Pittman is almost punting on this bowl game at this point.

It's only fair that I list all the losses for Texas Tech as well.  They will be without starting QB Behren Morton, but I liked what I saw from freshman QB Will Hammond, who saw some action this season and impressed in the 2H against TCU.  Leading receiver Josh Kelly and starting T Ty Buchanan will be out, and the Red Raiders will also have two new coordinators.

But RB Tahj Brooks is listed as RB1 on the bowl depth chart, and it would be huge for them if he does give it a go.  Brooks rushed for 1,505 yards and 17 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry for the Red Raiders this season.

Arkansas will have starting QB Taylor Greene, but Texas Tech has been elite at defending dual-threat QB's this season.  I also like their momentum to finish the season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games including a 52-15 beat down of West Virginia in the finale.

Simply put, I think Texas Tech wants to be here more than Arkansas does and their personnel losses aren't nearly as big as the losses for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Joey McGuire clearly goes 'all in' for bowl games as he is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at Texas Tech with a 42-25 win over Ole Miss as 3-point dogs in 2022 and a 34-14 win over Cal as 3-point favorites last year.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

20* Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

This game will be played at a snail's pace.  Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 134 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.0 seconds.  Georgia Tech ranks 84th snapping the ball every 27.0 seconds.  There will be fewer possessions in this game than most, thus points will be very hard to come by.

The forecast is also good for the UNDER.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds with a greater than 70% chance of precipitation at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL Saturday.

Both defenses have been pretty solid and are a big reason these teams had such successful seasons.  Vanderbilt allows 23.1 points per game while Georgia Tech allows 24.8 points per game.  While the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good offense, the Commodores do not, ranking 123rd in the country in total offense at 319.4 yards per game and 103rd at 5.3 yards per play.

But Georgia Tech's offense is going to be missing several key players that will hamper them on that side of the ball.  They will be without leading receiver Eric Singleton, who has 56 receptions for 754 yards and 3 TD on the season.  They will also be without LT Corey Robinson and backup LT Jordan Brown.  

The Commodores have very few opt-outs or transfers.  They will only possibly be missing three guys, but two of them are on offense in OT Gunnar Hansen and TE Eli Stowers, who leads the team with 45 receptions for 583 yards and 4 TD.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Navy Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Navy +3

Navy QB Blake Horvath played the 2nd half of the season injured.  He finally got healthy for their last game and it has made all the difference for the Midshipmen, who have one of the most explosive offenses in school history this season.

Navy took on a East Carolina team that has won four in a row and in their second-to-last game and handled them 34-20.  The Midshipmen outgained the Pirates 458 to 350, or by 108 total yards. Horvath returned against Army in their finale to lead them to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.  

The Midshipmen blasted the Black Knights 31-13 while outgaining them 378 to 178 for the game, or by 200 total yards.  Horvath rushed for 204 yards and 2 TD on 25 carries while also throwing for 107 yards and 2 TD in one of his best games of the season to show he is fully healthy heading into the bowl game.  They handed Army just their 2nd loss of the season.

Now the Midshipmen have their sights set on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Armed Forces Bowl, which will be a big home-field advantage for them in Fort Worth.  Oklahoma clearly isn't taking this game seriously with all their transfers and opt-outs, and the wrong team is favored here.

The Sooners will be without starting QB Jackson Arnold, five of their best receivers, their starting TE, two starting CB's and RB Jovantae Barnes.  They will also be without their two best defenders in LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman.  If WR Deion Burks cannot go, the Sooners' options at receiver will be eight freshmen for backup QB Michael Hawkins, who is more of a runner than a thrower.

This Oklahoma offense is absolutely dreadful and will be in worse shape than they have been all season heading into this bowl game.  The Sooners rank 120th in total offense at 322.8 yards per game, 126th at 4.8 yards per play and 94th in scoring at 24.3 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for them against Navy, which just held the best rushing team in the country in Army to 113 yards on 39 attempts.  Bet Navy Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Blazers OVER 227

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

This total of 227 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  That's especially the case considering the opponent in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing higher scoring games with them recently as a result.

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last five games, including 240 with Dallas, 250 with Denver and 234 with San Antonio.  They also recently lost 141-99 to the Jazz in a game that saw 240 combined points.

The Jazz and Blazers have now combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 227 or more in seven of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Red Wolves rank 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds on offense.  They have one of the worst defenses in the country to go along with a decent offense.

The Red Wolves rank 66th in total offense at 385.9 yards per game.  They have solid balance averaging 159 rushing yards per game and 227 passing.  Their defense is dreadful, ranking 129th in the country allowing 461.6 yards per game and 131st allowing 6.9 yards per play.  They have almost no opt outs but will be without starting CB Dontay Joyder and DE Jayden Jones.

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  I think the Falcons can do the heavy lifting here, and I expect Arkansas State to have enough success on offense to get this thing up and OVER this short total of 50. Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

15* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -7

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  They nearly upset both of those teams losing by 7 to Penn State and by 6 to Texas A&M both on the road.

Arkansas State is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams I've ever seen.  The Red Wolves average 385.9 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 461.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 76 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play on the season, which are numbers that you would see from a 3-9 or 4-8 team rather than one that is 7-5 like the Red Wolves.

We've seen Arkansas State get waxed when they have stepped up in class this season.  They lost 52-7 to Iowa State, 41-9 to Texas State and 55-19 to Louisiana.  I think they get waxed one last time here against a motivated Bowling Green team that will have all hands on deck.  Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has stated he's more focused on next season than this bowl game with many of his comments leading up to it.  Bet Bowling Green in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -3

With their 27-24 loss to the Vikings last week, the Seahawks now trail the Rams by one game for the division lead with two games to go.  They cannot afford a loss to the Bears on Thursday, otherwise the Rams would clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals on Saturday, and the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention so may not be all that motivated.

So we are going to get a max effort from the Seahawks on Thursday, and it should be enough to beat the hapless Bears by more than a field goal.  I think we are getting the Seahawks at a discount here due to coming off consecutive losses, but those losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers and Vikings. 

They had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their previous four games, including three of those on the road with upset wins at San Francisco, at the Jets and at Arizona.  They also outgained the Vikings 361 to 298 and deserved to win that game last week, so that misleading final certainly is playing into this line this week as well.  

Geno Smith proved he was healthy after getting injured against the Packers, throwing for 314 yards and 3 TD with 2 INT against the Vikings.  And the Seahawks are remarkably healthy everywhere with the only question being RB Kenneth Walker, but they have actually almost been better with backup RB Zach Charbonnet as he's great running and catching the ball out of the backfield.

This Seattle defense is thriving since getting healthy coming out of their bye week.  They are allowing 19.8 points per game and 309.3 yards per game in their six games since the bye, and it has come against five potent offenses and the Jets, who are improved here down the stretch.

Now the Seahawks will feast on Caleb Williams and one of the worst, most banged up offensive lines in the NFL.  Two more starting offensive linemen were knocked out of their 34-17 home loss to the Lions last week in LT Braxton Jones and LG Teven Jenkins.  Jones is for sure out, and Jenkins probably won't be recoverd on a short week.  They were already without C Ryan Bates and backup C Doug Kramer Jr.  Williams has already been sacked a league-high 60 times, and his offensive line consistently gets called for holding penalties to boot.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary to the Washington Commanders on October 27th.  The Bears are now 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last three losses haven't even been close as they have lost those three games by a combined 60 points, or by an average of 20.0 points per game.  This team is on 'quit alert'.

While Williams and the offense have been a big problem all season, the defense has been even more of an issue since firing head coach Matt Eberflus.  While he wasn't a great head coach, he was a tremendous defensive coordinator.  The defense has fallen off a cliff allowing 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers, 30 points and 329 total yards to the Vikings and 34 points and 475 total yards to the Lions in their last three games without him.  Geno Smith and company should hang another big number on this soft defense.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226.5

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They did go under with the Rockets and 215 combined points last time out, but that was very fluky as they shot 42% as a team and the Rockets only shot 43%.

Now the Hornets take on a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards tonight.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play zero defense.

The Hornets and Wizards have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last five meetings, including 237, 241 and 248 in three of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Rutgers/K-State Rate Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Rutgers +7

Greg Schiano is one of the best bowl coaches in college football.  He has led Rutgers to a 6-2 record in bowl games in his coaching career.  I'm certainly liking taking the +7 with the Scarlet Knights here against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl given Schiano's track record.

I also like the fact that Rutgers hardly has any opt-outs or transfers.  Several players who were expected to opt out have said they are going to play in the bowl game.  The only big loss is their defensive coordinator, but they may be better off with Schiano calling the defensive plays anyways.

Rutgers finished strong going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final four games and nearly went 4-0 blowing a lead in the final seconds to Illinois.  They upset Minnesota 26-19 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Maryland as 3.5-point road dogs and upset Michigan State 41-14 as 1.5-point road dogs.

Kansas State has some big-time opt-outs and transfers.  Both RB DJ Giddens and CB Jacob Parrish have declared for the NFL Draft and will not play.  The loss of Giddens is a huge blow considering he has rushed for 1,343 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.6 per carry.  He is almost their entire offense.  They will also be without RT Carver Willis and WR Keagan Johnson, who has 29 receptions for 359 yards and is their second-leading receiver just ahead of Giddens, who has 21 receptions for 258 yards.

Kansas State QB Avery Johnson has struggled with accuracy and turnovers.  He completes just 59.1% of his passes with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He is a threat to run, and I think that Schiano will come up with the proper game plan to spy him and not allow him to run much.  The Wildcats have been overvalued all season going just 4-8 ATS in their 12 games, and I think they are being overvalued again here as a 7-point favorite against a Rutgers team that wants to be here.  The Wildcats have questionable motivation especially with all the opt-outs.  Bet Rutgers in the Rate Bowl Thursday.

15* Pitt/Toledo Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

From a tempo standpoint alone this total is too low.  Then you throw in the fact that it will be played in perfect conditions inside the dome at Ford Field and it's definitely too low.  There is tremendous value on the OVER 49.5 between Pittsburgh and Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl Thursday.

Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds only trailing South Florida in that category.  The Panthers will be up against a Toledo team that ranks 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game, which means more opportunities for points.

The up-tempo offense has paid dividends for the Panthers who are scoring 31.8 points per game with their best offense of the Pat Narduzzi era.  But it has also led to some of the worst defensive numbers of the Narduzzi era, giving up 26.8 points per game this season.  Toledo likes to throw a lot of deep balls, and the Panthers' biggest weakness was against the deep ball this season.

Both teams have more important opt outs on defense than on offense.  Toledo will have its starting QB, and there's a chance Pitt will have its starting QB with Eli Holstein sitting the last few games due to injury, but he may return.  RB Desmond Reid will return after missing the finale with an injury.  Narduzzi said they should be healthier for their bowl game than they were in the regular season finale and expects at least 90% of his seniors to suit up.  He sounded optimistic about Holstein's chances.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Nuggets/Suns ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Nuggets and Suns just squared off on Monday in Denver with the Nuggets winning 117-90 for just 207 combined points.  They have set the total at 232.5 for the rematch here two days later, and it's simply too high.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 207, 201, 204, 230, 225 and 220 combined points at the end of regulation.  So they have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232.5-point total.  The last three of 207, 201, and 204 have been extremely low-scoring.

Injuries to both teams are another reason to like the UNDER.  The Suns are without Devin Booker and Grayson Allen, and both are missed much more on the offensive end than the defensive end.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play for the Nuggets and offers a lot more on the offensive end than the defensive end as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221

When the Lakers and Warriors get together a shootout is usually the end result.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 223 or more combined points in all six meetings, which makes for a 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221-point total.

The last four meetings have been especially high scoring with 254, 249, 238 and 236 combined points at the end of regulation.  LeBron and AD are both questionable, but both played in their last game and combined for 65 points in a 117-114 loss to the Pistons.  I expect both to play in this game since it's Christmas Day on National TV.

The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Gary Payton II, who is questionable. But not having him on the floor would make them even more of an OVER team because he is their best perimeter defender.  Getting Dennis Schroeder in a trade has opened up their offense and given Steve Kerr more options around Steph Curry.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Ravens/Texans XMas Day No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17 on Saturday to climb into a tie for first place in the division with the Steelers.  They are max motivated right now to win the division and get a home game in the first round of the playoffs.  I expect them to show up in a big way on Christmas Day.

The Houston Texans have already clinched their division and have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  They gave an 'all in' effort to try and beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday but came up short in a 27-19 road loss to the defending champs.  I don't see them being motivated at all in Week 17 or Week 18.

So the Ravens are the better, more motivated team. They'll be on the road not having to deal with Christmas distractions back home, and they'll be treating it like a business trip.  I don't see the Texans being motivated at all, and they will be dealing with the distractions that come with Christmas at home.

The Ravens rank 1st in total offense at 423.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  The Texans have been broken on offense all season, ranking 16th at 323.3 yards per game and 19th at 5.4 yards per play.  I don't think the Texans have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout.

On paper, this was supposed to be an elite Houston offense coming into the season.  But it wasn't even that great when everyone was healthy.  Now injuries have decimated them.  They lost two of their top three receivers in Stephon Diggs and Tank Dell, who suffered a season-ending injury against the Chiefs last week, and they were terrible after he went out.

Of course, it doesn't help that CJ Stroud is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game.  Now G Shaq Mason suffered an injury against the Chiefs and is questionable this week.  WR John Metchie III who would take Dell's place is also out.  S Jimmie Ward is one of the leaders of the defense and he got hurt against the Chiefs and is questionable.  They are already without DT Fatukasi and LB Al-Shaaier, while LB Harris and DE Anderson are questionable.

The Ravens are remarkably healthy on defense.  RB Hill and WR Flowers both got banged up last week, but I expect at least Flowers to go, and their offense was fine even after losing Hill to a concussion.  There's a chance WR Agholor could return this week, and WR Bateman played last week and should be good to go again this week.  We'll back the better, healthier, more motivated team on Christmas Day.  Bet the Ravens Wednesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on USF/San Jose State OVER 61.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They play a San Jose State team that also plays super fast, ranking 11th in tempo at 23.4 seconds in between snaps.  It's safe to say the Hawaii Bowl will see as many possessions as any bowl game this season, and thus more opportunities for points in what should be one of the highest scoring games of bowl season.

The OVER is 5-1 in South Florida's last six games overall.  The Bulls combined for 60 points with UAB, 65 points with FAU, 83 points with Charlotte, 93 points with Tulsa and 63 points with Rice.  In their final three games of the season, the Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game.

San Jose State boasts a high-octane passing attack.  The Spartans rank 5th in passing at 325.2 yards per game.  They'll be up against a San Jose State defense that ranks 128th allowing 278.7 passing yards per game and 119th allowing 436.6 total yards per game.

Both teams have key defenders in the transfer portal who may not play.  San Jose State could be without both starting CB's DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, while South Florida could be without starting S Tawfiq Byard and starting DT Doug Blue-Eli.  Bet the OVER in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

20* South Florida/San Jose State Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +4.5

South Florida head coach Alex Golesh has shown his hand about how much making a bowl game and performing in it means to him.  In his first season last year, the Bulls had to win their final game of the season to get bowl eligible.  They went on to beat Syracuse 45-0 as 3-point underdogs in the Boca Raton Bowl.

The Bulls needed another big finish this season to get bowl eligible.  They won four out of five games with their only loss coming to Navy, and the four wins all came by double-digits and by an average of 25.3 points per game.  Because they clinched bowl eligibility with one game remaining, it made their game against Rice in the regular season finale meaningless, and they played like it in a 35-28 defeat.

I think that loss to an underrated Rice team has them undervalued head heading into their bowl game.  Now they are catching 4.5 points against the San Jose State Spartans, who went 7-5 this season but I wasn't all that impressed with them down the stretch.  They lost three of their final five games with a 23-point loss at Fresno State and an 11-point home loss to UNLV where they were held to just 114 total yards.

Now the Spartans are going to be without their best player in WR Nick Nash, who has opted out of this bowl game to get ready for the NFL.  Nash may be the best receiver in the country and is irreplaceable for the Spartans.  He has 104 receptions for 1,382 yards and 16 TD this season.  Defensively, the Spartans could be without both starting CB's in DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, who are in the transfer portal.

I don't think the Spartans have the firepower to keep up with South Florida in this one without Nash.  The Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game in their final three games of the season.  They play at the fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They wear down their opponents, and they will wear down this San Jose State defense for four quarters.

South Florida has great balance ranking 28th in rushing at 191.2 yards per game and 69th in passing at 226.8 yards per game.  But their bread and butter is running the football and has been down the stretch.  That makes this a great matchup for them up against a San Jose State defense that allowed 170 or more rushing yards in six of their final nine games this season.  Bet South Florida in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

15* Saints/Packers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -13.5

We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

Last week, the final misleading final score against the Commanders is giving the Saints more respect than they deserve.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.

The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

I'm not worried at all about the Packers having a letdown.  They are trying to improve their playoff positioning and this is a standalone game on Monday Night Football, so there's no chance they let down.  And anything close to an 'A' effort is going to be enough for the Packers to win this game by 2-plus touchdowns to cover this 13.5-point spread.

The Packers are 10-4 this season with their losses coming to the Lions (twice), the Vikings by 2 and the Eagles by 5.  They are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and they are playing like it.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a 38-10 beat down of the 49ers at home, a 30-17 beat down of the Dolphins at home and a 30-13 beat down of the Seahawks on the road.  They outgained the Seahawks 369 to 208 last week in a dominant effort.

The Packers are about as healthy as any team in the NFL right now which is a big reason they are playing so well.  It looks like they will get CB Jaire Alexander back this week on defense.  They are fully healthy on offense, and defensively they only have two guys questionable in LB Quay Walker and NB Javon Bullard.  There's a good chance one or both play.

I always like fading dome teams that are used to playing in perfect conditions when they have to go outdoors and deal with the elements.  I don't expect Rattler and company to handle it very well this week.  It will be in the 20's at Lambeau Field Monday night with a 50% possibility of snow and rain as of this writing.  Bet the Packers Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

The Milwaukee Bucks are going to struggle to be motivated in the immediate future after winning the NBA Cup.  In their first game out of their cup championship, they lost 124-101 at Cleveland.  They did beat the Wizards 112-101 in their next game, but the Wizards are the worst team in the NBA.

More concerning even than motivation are injuries to their two best players.  They will be without Damian Lillard tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight.

The Bulls are fully healthy right now with only Josh Giddey listed as questionable.  They are playing well going 3-1 SU in their last four games overall including a 117-108 road win at Boston as 14.5-point dogs.  Their only loss came to the Celtics at home in the revenge game.

This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks off the NBA Cup so they are the more tired team.  This will be just the 5th game in 15 days for the Bulls, and all that rest is a big reason they are playing so well right now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 236.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight and could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is questionable.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state and that has played out recently.

The Bucks and their oppoenents have combined for 235 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 236.5-point total.  They have combined for 225 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five games overall with 225 or fewer combined points in four of those.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Bulls this season.

The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 236 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 19 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 236.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -6

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the NBA this season but they aren't being priced like it, thus we continue getting value in backing them.  The Bucks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their last four wins all coming by 16 points or more.  Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Mavericks by 5 and the Lakers by 6.

The Los Angeles Clippers are struggling right now going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with all four losses coming by 11 points or more.  Their two wins came over the Jazz and over the Mavericks who were without both Doncic and Irving.  This looks like another blowout in Memphis' favor at home tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Cavs OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven games overall with 238 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are also more of a dead nuts OVER team this season going 19-10 OVER in all games. They rank 1st in offensive rating this season and they'll be up against a Jazz team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cavs last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in three of them.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 242, 240 and 230 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Hornets OVER 217

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30.4 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  This total of 217 is very low for a game involving the Hornets with Ball healthy.

The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight games that weren't in the NBA Cup, where defensive intensity is high.  We have seen 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.

The Hornets and Rockets have combined for at least 219 points in seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 217-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Northern Illinois/Fresno State Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -3

Fresno State has been hit as hard as almost anyone in terms of starters who won't be playing either due to the transfer portal or opt outs.  The Bulldogs will be without starting QB Mikey Keene, two starting WR's in Jalen Moss and Raylen Sharpe, three starting CB's in Alzillion Hamilton, Julian Neal and Cam Lockridge, two starting DT's in Gavriel Lightfoot and Jacob Holmes and starting LB Phoenix Jackson.

So the Bulldogs have been decimated especially on defense.  There starting WR's for the bowl game have a combined four receptions, and they will be starting a backup QB.  Northern Illinois is a run-heavy team that will be able to exploit this decimated Fresno State defense.

The Huskies have plenty of transfers and opt outs of their own, but they haven't been hit as hard as Fresno State.  They will be without starting QB Ethan Hampton, starting WR Trayvon Rudolph, starting S Santana Banner, starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard and starting DE Jalonnie Williams due to the transfer portal.

Josh Hoist will start at quarterback and has some experience backing up Hampton when he got injured earlier this season.  He completed 47-of-81 passes while also rushing for 165 yards on 33 carries for an average of 5.0 per carry.  They will ride Hoist on the ground a lot in this one, and I think it will be a very effective game plan against this soft Fresno State defense.  Bet Northern Illinois Monday.

20* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48

The Tampa Bay Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL that not enough people are talking about so it flies under the radar.  The Bucs rank 4th in scoring at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 388.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  They average 5.2 yards per rush and their ability to run the ball finally this season has opened everything up for Baker Mayfield.

That was on display last week as Mayfield and the Bucs dissected a very good Los Angeles Chargers defense for 506 total yards in a 40-17 victory.  They have rushed for at least 152 yards in four consecutive games and have thrown for at least 268 in three of those four to boot.  But this Bucs defense remains a problem ranking 27th in the league allowing 356.9 yards per game.  Injuries have been a big problem for them, and five starters are questionable on D this week.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team as well especially when playing at home in the dome in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas is allowing 33.4 points per game at home this season, so the Bucs are going to continue putting up big numbers offensively.  Injuries are a big problem for the Cowboys on defense.  They have five starters questionable, and they just recently lost two key starters in LB Overshown and CB Diggs.

But this Dallas offense continues to produce even with Cooper Rush at quarterback.  They are pretty healthy all around on offense, and he is utilizing his weapons nicely, plus the running game has gotten going averaging 183.5 rushing yards per game the last two weeks.  They put up 34 points on Washington, 27 on the Giants and 30 on the Panthers in three of their last four games with Rush at QB.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +3

This is a terrible spot for the Sacramento Kings.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 103-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night.  Fox, DeRozan and Sabonis all played at least 37 minutes last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Indiana Pacers tonight.

The Pacers are not the team you want to play on tired legs since they play with so much tempo.  And the Pacers come in playing their best basketball of the season going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three road games upsetting Phoenix by 9 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the 76ers by 14 as 6.5-point dogs and topping the Bulls by 9 as 3.5-point favorites.

The Pacers are the much fresher team here after having the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They should not be underdogs to the Kings today given that huge rest advantage.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Patriots OVER 46.5

The Buffalo Bills have now scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive games.  In their last two games alone, they put up 42 points and 445 total yards on the Rams and 48 points and 559 total yards against the Lions.  They are going to get to at least 30 again this week, and that's all we need to cash this OVER 46.5 ticket with the Patriots doing the rest.

The Patriots have been much better offensively with Drake Maye at quarterback. They keep coming for four quarters and actually do most of their damage in the 4th quarter, which I expect to be the case here once the Bills call off the dogs.

We saw it again last week with the Patriots tacking on two garbage TD's in the 4th to get the OVER 46.5 with 47 combined points with the Cardinals.  The week prior they put up 422 total yards in a 25-24 loss to the Colts for 49 combined points.  They combined for 49 points with the Dolphins the game prior thanks to two 4th quarter touchdowns.  And the week prior they lost 28-22 to the Rams for 50 combined points.

While the Bills are fully healthy on offense now, they are beat up on defense which is why they are being forced to win shootouts.  They allowed 44 points and 457 yards to the Rams two weeks ago and 42 points and 521 yards to the Lions last week.  The Patriots are also beat up defensively with five starters questionable heading into this one.  They have allowed 25 or more points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 5-1 in Bills last six games overall with 50 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Patriots last four games overall with 47 or more combined points in all four games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 48 or more combined points in five of those six.  There will be no wind or precipitation in Buffalo Sunday making conditions ripe for scoring even though it's going to be cold.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 40

The Las Vegas Raiders get QB Aidan O'Connell back this week and he makes all the difference for this offense.  The last time he started he diced up a very good Kansas City Chiefs defense for 340 passing yards and two touchdowns three games ago.  He got hurt early two weeks ago in their loss to the Bucs, and they were dreadful on offense with Desmond Ridder in his place for the last six quarters.

But with O'Connell back, he should torch this Jacksonville defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Jaguars rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game.  They are dead last (32nd) in total defense allowing 396.4 yards per game and dead last allowing 6.2 yards per play.  They are dead last against the pass allowing 264.3 yards per game.  Their defensive coordinator is stubborn and sticking to a man-heavy scheme that allows so many big plays.

Mac Jones had a big game last week for the Jaguars leading them to 25 points and 421 total yards.  He threw for 294 yards in that 32-25 loss to the Jets that saw 57 combined points.  He is relishing this opportunity as a starting QB again to try and redeem himself for what happened in New England.  He has much better weapons with the Jaguars and he is utilizing them.

The Raiders rank 27th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game.  They have seven defenders on IR including their best player in DE Maxx Crosby.  I fully expect Jones to have success against them in what looks to be a shootout between two teams that don't have much to play for.  It will also be perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas, and this total of 40 is very low for an NFL game in a dome.  There's clearly value with the OVER here.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers ML +102

The San Francisco 49ers are the best 6-8 team in the history of the NFL.  They rank 8th in total offense averaging 365.1 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 298.8 yards per game and 6th at 5.2 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 66.3 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best margins in the entire NFL despite their 6-8 record.

I like the fact that the 49ers have extra rest here after playing the Rams last Thursday.  I also like the fact that the weather will be perfect in Miami because Brock Purdy struggled in the two recent games that were affected by weather with the snow in Buffalo and the rain against the Rams.

Miami's final stand to make the playoffs was last week.  The Dolphins fell flat on their faces in a 20-12 loss at Houston as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are basically eliminated from playoff contention at 6-8 on the season.  I also question how much the Dolphins have left in the tank this week, and I don't expect them to show up at all.

The Dolphins will be playing for a 10th consecutive week after getting a bye early in the season.  Their last three games have really taken a lot out of them losing by 8 at Houston, beating the Jets by 6 in OT and losing by 13 at Green Bay.  Injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially on offense.

The Dolphins lost WR Jaylen Waddle early in that loss to Houston last week.  It's no wonder they struggled so much on offense as Tua went 29-of-40 passing for 196 yards with one TD and 3 INT in the loss.  Waddle had really come to life the previous three games with 21 receptions for 298 yards and a TD, and they are going to be lost offensively without him again this week.  That's especially the case with WR Tyreke Hill questionable, and without fellow WR's Dee Eskride, Braxton Berrios and Grant Dubose.  They are extremely thin at WR to say the least, and both starting offensive tacklers in Armstead and Lamm are questionable after missing last week.

The 49ers have all of their weapons healthy on offense with the exception of RB, but they've proven they can work around injuries at the position.  LT Trent Williams remains out, but they have gotten much healthier on defense in recent weeks with DE Nick Bosa and LB Dre Greenlaw back in the lineup.  Their secondary is fully healthy and they held the Rams to just 12 points last week after holding the Bears to 13 points in a 38-13 win two weeks ago.  That was a 24-0 game at halftime before they called off the dogs in the 2H.  They will shut down Tua and this banged up Miami offense in this one as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 47.5

The forecast looks good for a game in Chicago in December.  Temps will be in the 30's with only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  That's why I'm not worried about the weather affecting the Lions and Jared Goff in this outdoor game.

The Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league.  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of theym are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzelone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

They've been forced to try and win shootouts the last two weeks.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay two weeks ago, but they couldn't get it done last week in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills last week.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they know they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

The Bears look lost defensively since firing Matt Eberflus.  He was a big reason they were so good on defense to finish last season, and pretty good on defense in the first half this season.  But they have fallen off a cliff without him.  They allowed 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers in their first game without him two weeks ago.  They allowed 30 points and 329 yards to the Vikings last week.

I know the Bears haven't been thriving on offense, but they should have one of their best games of the season against this banged up Detroit stop unit.  This is a big step down in class after facing the 49ers and Vikings.  The Bears have had two of their best offensive outputs of the season in their last two home games.  They had 391 total yards against the Packers and 27 points and 398 total yards against the Vikings.  They are much more comfortable offensively at home.

These teams met on Thanksgiving in a game that should have been tied 23-23 at the end of regulation, but the Bears inexplicably let the clock run out in FG range.  That got Eberflus fired.  The Lions had 405 total yards and the Bears 301 in that game.  Given the current state of both these defenses, I think the offenses will shine even more in the rematch this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rams/Jets OVER 46.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since firing head coach Robert Saleh.  They have also been hit hard by injuries on defense.  But offensively they are improving rapidly with Aaron Rodgers forming great chemistry with Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard in the passing game.  The Jets profile as an OVER team in their current form.

The OVER is 4-0 in Jets last four games overall with 47 or more combined points in all four games, including 55 or more in three of them.  The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in five consecutive games and an average of 28.4 points per game during this stretch.  They even gave up 25 points and 421 total yards to Mac Jones and the Jaguars last week.  They rank 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate on defense since Saleh left.

The Jets have scored at least 21 points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are averaging 26.5 points per game in their last four games.  The passing attack has really taken off the last two weeks with 319 passing yards against Miami and 275 against Jacksonville.

The Los Angeles Rams are going to get their points.  They are showing what they are capable of offensively with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams all healthy at the same time.  Now the Rams are expected to get TE Tyler Higbee back this week to make his season debut.

The Rams hung 44 points in an absolute shootout with the Bills two weeks ago that saw 86 combined points.  I think the fact that they are coming off a very low-scoring game against the 49ers last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played in sloppy conditions and neither offense could get anything going as a result.  Plus, they were very familiar with one another in a division game meeting for a 2nd time this season.

Now the Rams head out East against a team they are unfamiliar with in the Jets.  And I like OVERS much more in these non-conference games where teams don't see each other every year.  It makes the offenses much more difficult to prepare for.  I like the way both of these offenses are trending, I like that the Jets are giving up points in bunches and are extremely injured right now, and I think this Rams defense is overrated.

The Jets just put S Jalen Mills on IR, could be without CB Michael Carter II again, and their best defender in Quinnen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday.  I think the Rams can name their number here and the Jets will be able to keep pace in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since firing head coach Robert Saleh.  They have also been hit hard by injuries on defense.  The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in five consecutive games and an average of 28.4 points per game during this stretch.  They even gave up 25 points and 421 total yards to Mac Jones and the Jaguars last week. They rank 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate on defense since Saleh left.

The Jets just put S Jalen Mills on IR, could be without CB Michael Carter II again, and their best defender in Quinnen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday.  They were already without their most important defender in LB CJ Mosley, and they haven't been good since losing him and Saleh.  Saleh called the defense and Mosley was the one making those calls to the defense to get everyone where they're supposed to be.

The Los Angeles Rams are going to get their points.  They are showing what they are capable of offensively with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams all healthy at the same time.  Now the Rams are expected to get TE Tyler Higbee back this week to make his season debut.

The Rams hung 44 points on the Bills two weeks ago winning in a shootout.  They showed last week they could win a grinder upsetting the 49ers 12-6 on the road.  They outgained the 49ers 302 to 191 in rainy conditions and really controlled the game throughout.  They improved to 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall, quietly playing as well as almost anyone else in the NFL right now.

But the Rams cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week.  They are tied with the Seahawks for first place in the division and only one game ahead of the Cardinals.  They also want to assure they get a wild card spot if they are unable to win the division.  Many are expecting them to letdown this week, but I'm not one of them given their current standing.

If anyone is going to have a letdown it's going to be the Jets.  They just ended a 4-game losing streak with a come from behind win over Mac Jones and the Jaguars in the final seconds last week.  This after losing three straight heartbreakers to the Colts by 1, the Seahawks by 5 and the Dolphins in OT.  I think the Jets will be the team that breathes a sigh of relief here.

The Rams have a big rest advantage after playing the 49ers last Thursday.  They get three extra days to prepare for this game.  They will be rested and ready to go, and they are fully healthy across the board.  The Jets are the tired team that has played four straight one-score games.  They are also beat up, especially on defense.  Getting Los Angeles as less than a FG favorite here is a gift.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State +20.5

Kent State is 8-2 this season with its two losses coming to UC-Irvine and Auburn, who are a combined 21-3 this season.  Auburn is the best team in the country and the Golden Flashes lost by 23 on the road to the Tigers, so I think they can stay within 20 of Alabama here.

These games over Christmas Break are sleepy spots for many of these home teams.  I don't see Alabama being all that motivated to blow out Kent State.  The Crimson Tide only beat North Dakota 97-90 as 25-point home favorites last time out on December 18th in another sleepy spot.  Bet Kent State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Knicks/Pelicans OVER 225

The Knicks are the most improved offensive team in the NBA with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavaliers and slightly ahead of the Celtics.  They are fully healthy right now and just hung 133 points against a very good Minnesota defensive team.

The Pelicans have gotten much healthier in recent weeks and are playing better on offense as a result, but they are still terrible defensively.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season and have fallen off a cliff on that end.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for at least 220 points in seven consecutive games, including 228 or more in five of those.  They just lost 133-113 at Houston for 246 combined points against a Houston team that isn't very good on offense but is elite on defense.  This has the making of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Timberwolves OVER 213

The Golden State Warriors just combined for 237 points with Memphis and 276 points with Dallas at the end of regulation it their last two games.  They are fully healthy right now, and it's no surprise they are playing in shootouts since trading for Dennis Schroeder to give their offense a spark, but he brings nothing on defense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves just lost 133-107 to the New York Knicks for 240 combined points.  They also recently lost to the Warriors 114-106 in a game that saw 220 combined points with a total of 216.  There's no way the oddsmakers should have adjusted this number down to 213 for the rematch as there's clearly value on the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Milwaukee Bucks just won the NBA Cup in Las Vegas.  They are going to struggle to be motivated for a while in these 'meaningless' NBA regular season games compared to the level of intensity they played with in the NBA Cup.

We saw that on display last night in their 124-101 loss at Cleveland as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and come back as 11.5-point favorites over the Wizards tonight.  This is a game they could legitimately lose outright.

The Bucks are a tired team due to playing in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  Damian Lillard is doubtful to play tonight, and they certainly should not be double-digit favorites without him.

The Washington Wizards are about as healthy as they have been all season.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall only losing by 10 as 16.5-point dogs at Cleveland, by 14 as 17-point dogs at Boston and upsetting Charlotte by 9 as 4-point home dogs.  

This team is grossly undervalued right now, especially given the tough spot for Milwaukee.  The Wizards are also 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bucks pulling the outright upset as 12.5-point home dogs, and only losing by 3 as 13.5-point road dogs and by 10 as 14.5-point road dogs.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Nets OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy and a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games overall with 245, 251, 260, 238, 240 and 239 combined points.  So this total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving Utah right now.

The Brooklyn Nets aren't a great offensive team, which is why this total is so low.  But I think they will have one of the best outputs of the season here against the worst defensive team in the NBA.

The Jazz and Nets have combined for at least 220 points in six consecutive meetings, including 261 and 233 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/Santa Clara OVER 167

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-1-1 OVER in all lined games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in their last seven games overall with 162 or more combined points in all eight games during this stretch.

The Coyotes embrace pace ranking 6th in the country in adjusted tempo and 354th in defensive efficiency.  They play a Santa Clara team that also doesn't mind running ranking 153rd in adjusted tempo.  The Broncos are a great shooting team and will hang a big number on this awful Coyotes defense.

Santa Clara put up 81 points on Fresno State, 84 on Bradley and 94 on Kennesaw State in its last three games coming in.  The Broncos are lighting up the scoreboard and could push for 100 points in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -6

This is where the tough schedule that everyone talked about in the 2nd half of the season starts to catch up with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They had their bye way back in Week 9 and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  They will also be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here and are starting to wear down and get injured.

The Steelers lost 27-13 last week at Philadelphia.  The Eagles controlled that game and controlled the ball possessing it for 40 minutes, meaning the Steelers' defense was on the field for 40 minutes.  Thats' not good news now that they are on a short week.

The Eagles outgained the Steelers 401 to 163 for the game, or by 238 total yards.  They exposed the Steelers as frauds, and left them battered and bruised. TJ Watt was forced from the game with an ankle injury and won't be 100% even if he goes.  SS Elliott is doubtful, while DE Obunjobi and CB Jackson are questionable.  WR George Pickens means everything to them offensively, and he has already been ruled out again.  They have been lost without Pickens the last couple weeks as he has been Russell Wilson's go-to target, especially on deep balls.

The Ravens just finally had their bye in Week 14.  They came out of their bye and wrecked the New York Giants 35-14.  The Ravens are almost fully healthy now and certainly as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  They are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and I have them power-rated similar to Philadelphia, and I expect a similar beat down that the Eagles put on the Steelers last week.

Baltimore wants revenge from a 18-16 loss at Pittsburgh in a game in which Justin Tucker missed two field goals, and the Ravens committed three turnovers.  That's what it took just for the Steelers to squeak by them by 2 points.  I expect the Ravens to make the necessary corrections and for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season with the division on the line.

I think there's value in the line where you consider the Ravens were 3-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are 6-point favorites in the rematch.  They have only adjusted it 3 points for flipping home fields, and it should be adjusted even more considering the Steelers are banged up and tired while the Ravens are fresh and healthy.  

The Ravens are so much better than the Steelers when you look at the numbers.  The Ravens are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play, while the Steelers are only outgaining opponents by 9 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* Clemson/Texas TNT No-Brainer on Clemson +12

No question Texas has an elite defense. But the Longhorns have struggled on offense ever since Quinn Ewers got hurt, and he still doesn't look right.  He fails to show up in big games and looked scared against Georgia and their backup QB in the SEC Championship Game.

Texas managed just 19 points against Georgia, 17 points against Texas A&M and 20 points against Arkansas in three of its final four games to close out the season.  If the Longhorns don't get to 30, which I don't think they will, it's going to be very hard for them to cover this 12-point spread.

Clemson played a tough schedule this season that included two SEC opponents in Georgia and South Carolina, so the Tigers won't be intimidated at all.  They will also be playing with a big chip on their shoulder because nobody thought they deserved to be here, and nobody plays the underdog role better than Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.  He lives for situations like these.

Clemson put up 419 total yards on a very good South Carolina defense in their regular season finale.  They jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead on SMU before taking their foot off the gas in the ACC Championship Game, but came up clutch with a game-winning FG in the final seconds.

I trust Clemson QB Cade Klubnik to make more plays than Ewers or whoever is under center for Texas.  Klubnik quietly had a fantastic season throwing for 3,303 yards with a 33-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 458 yards and seven scores.  Klubnik also has the mental advantage over Ewers after beating him 52-34 in the Texas Class 6A State Championship in high school.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* UCLA/UNC CBS ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -1

The UCLA Bruins are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Bruins are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with upset wins over both Oregon and Arizona on the road recently.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS this season and their lack of defense and lack of production from their big men is alarming.  They have some good guards but that's all there is to like about this team.

The Bruins are 4th in adjusted defense while the Tar Heels are 44th and that number doesn't reflect how poor they are on that end.  They have allowed at least 90 points five times already this season.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* Louisville/Florida State ACC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State PK

The Louisville Cardinals are short-handed and struggling.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming 77-74 as 14.5-point home favorites against UTEP.

They are without on of their best players in F Kasean Pryor (12.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG) who does a little bit of everything for them.  They are also without a few key role players in F Traore and G Johnson.  They did have a big effort against their biggest rivals in Kentucky last time out but came up short.  They will have a hard time being as motivated to face FSU as they were to beat Kentucky.

Florida State is 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS this season with its only losses coming to unbeaten Florida at home, and on the road to LSU and NC State.  The Seminoles have looked very good against everyone else with all nine wins coming by 8 points or more.  I think this is a Louisville team they can handle, especially playing at home.  

The Seminoles are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with Louisville.  They should be much bigger favorites today instead of just PK at home.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Indiana/Notre Dame ABC ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers went 11-1 this season and flew under the radar all season.  They are flying under the radar again as 7.5-point underdogs to Notre Dame in the 12-team playoff.

Indiana ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 43.3 points per game and 6th in scoring defense at 14.7 points per game, outscoring opponents by 28.6 points per game on the season.  That is one of the best marks in the entire country.  They have no weaknesses and their numbers are elite across the board on both sides of the football.

Notre Dame also went 11-1 this season, but the Fighting Irish are getting much more credit heading into the 12-team playoff despite that only ranked 10 spots tougher than what Indiana faced.  The finished +26.2 points per game in scoring margin.

Notre Dame didn't have to face very many great offenses like Indiana this season.  When they did, they struggled against both Louisville and USC defending the pass.  They allowed 360 passing yards and 557 total yards to USC and 264 passing yards and 437 total yards to Louisville.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be successful, and Indiana is very stingy against the run.  Indeed, the Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 70.8 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.5 yards per rush.  Bet Indiana Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers OVER 215.5

Note: La'Melo Ball ruled out since I published the pick. Bet much smaller than normal if you purchased.

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (30.4 PPG, 7.5 APG) is healthy and playing.  He opens everything up for them offensively.  It's no surprised that after missing three weeks due to injury, Ball returned and the Hornets went 2-0 OVER in his two games since returning with 229 combined points with the 76ers and 237 with the Wizards.

The Hornets also recently got back Miles Bridges and Mark Williams from injury, and Brandon Miller may return tonight.  They will be much better offensively moving forward, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The 76ers have both Tyrese Maxey and Paul George back and healthy and starting to form a chemistry playing together.  Maxey had 40 points and George 33 in that 121-108 win over the Hornets last time out.

That game had a total of 218.5, so we are getting a discount here with this total at 215.5 for the rematch.  I'm going to be on Hornets OVERS as long as Ball is healthy until the oddsmakers adjust the totals up enough, which they haven't here.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Ohio/Jacksonville State Cure Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

The Ohio Bobcats will have everyone available for the Cure Bowl as of this writing just two days before the game against Jacksonville State on Friday.  Their offense really took off down the stretch leading them to the MAC Championship Game.

The Bobcats average 37.8 points per game during their six-game winning streak to close out the season.  And while I also like Ohio to win and cover, I like the OVER in this game more due to what Jacksonville State brings to the table on the other side.

Jacksonville State ranks 13th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  The Jaguars have a high-powered offense that ranks 12th in scoring this season at 36.7 points per game.  They should have almost all hands on deck on offense.

Rich Rodriquez left for West Virginia, but offensive coordinator Rod Smith will serve as the interim so they'll still have their entire playbook on offense.  The same can be said for Ohio, where Tom Albin left for Charlotte, but offensive coordinator Brian Smith is the interim coach.  I love OVERS in bowl games when offensive coordinators take over as the interim, and we are getting that with both teams here.

Perhaps the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is because Jacksonville State has so many of their best defenders in the transfer portal, and last year players in the portal did not play for the Gamecocks.  They could be without S Zechariah Pyser (led defense in snaps), OLB Reginald Hughes (best pass rusher), S Fred Perry (1st-team C-USA), starting CB Jabari Mack and starting CB Fred Davis.  The only starter on offense in the portal is WR Cam Vaughn.

The forecast at Camping World Stadium in Orlando looks perfect for a shootout Friday.  Temps will be in the 70's with less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pacers/Suns NBA No-Brainer on OVER 234.5

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and 22nd in defensive rating.  The OVER is 16-10-1 in all Pacers games this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time.

Speaking of healthy, the Suns will have all hands on deck tonight and they are a dead nuts OVER team when that's the case.  Durant, Beal and Nurkic have all missed time this season but all are healthy now.

The Suns are 15-10 OVER in all games this season.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  The Pacers and Suns combined for 264 points in their last meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Broncos/Chargers AFC West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  They are averaging 27.4 points per game in their last 10 games with one of the most underrated offenses in the league.  A big reason for their success is playing much faster so Nix can make quick decisions.  The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in pace since Week 4.

The Broncos allowed 32 points and 554 total yards to Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns two games ago.  They allowed 369 yards to the Raiders the game before.  And last week they should have allowed more points to the Colts, but Jonathan Taylor let the ball go inches from the goal line to celebrate early and cost the Colts a TD.  The Colts moved the ball up and down the field on the Broncos.  They haven't been nearly as strong since losing starting CB Riley Moss to injury, and he remains out.  And now fellow CB Patrick Surtain II was noticeably limping getting injured late in that Colts game.  While he is expected to play, he will be hobbled.

The Chargers can take advantage of this vulnerable Denver secondary with their more pass-heavy approach since losing RB JK Dobbins to injury.  They have their full compliment of receivers all healthy right now which is big for Justin Herbert.  That's with the exception of TE Will Dissly, but TE Hayden Hurst has been activated from IR to take his place this week, so there should be no drop off at the position.  The Broncos are also fully healthy on offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Chargers last four home games combining for 44 points with Tennessee, 61 with Cincinnati, 53 with Baltimore and 57 with Tampa Bay.  So this total of 41 is very low for a Chargers home game based on recent results.

The Chargers' defense has been exposed in recent weeks by better offenses, allowing 27 points to Cincinnati, 30 to Baltimore and 40 and a whopping 506 total yards to the Bucs last week.  Injuries are a big reason they couldn't stop the Bucs and won't be able to stop the Broncos tonight.  The Chargers will be without starting CB Cam Hart and starting FS Elijah Molden, and both starting NT Otito Ogbonnia and LB Denzel Perryman are questionable.  They have five defenders on IR as well.

The Broncos and their opponents have combined for at least 42 points in seven of thier last eight games overall.  That makes for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 41-point total.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in Broncos last 10 games overall as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Grizzlies rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Warriors rank 8th, so this game will see a ton of possessions as both teams get up and down the court in a hurry offensively.

The Grizzlies are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do offensively when that's the case.  They have gone for at least 237 combined points with their opponents in five of their last seven games.

The Warriors are fully healthy now and just added Dennis Schroeder to give them that much needed extra guard to give Steph Curry a breather.  They just took part in a 143-133 shootout loss to Dallas and 276 combined points in their last game.

The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 241 points in five of their last seven meetings, so this has been a very high-scoring series.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Spurs OVER 234

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 17th in defensive rating this season.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of C Okongwu, but not having him on the court makes them even more of an OVER team.

The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last five games overall with 234 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception came against the Timberwolves, who profile as an under team.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Hawks and Spurs with 230 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Boston Celtics are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They won the NBA title last year and there's a tax that bettors have to pay to back them because of it.  The Celtics have failed to live up to expectations, going just 10-16 ATS this season.

Asking the Celtics to beat the Bulls by 15-plus points tonight to beat us is asking too much.  The Bulls are a pesky underdog and tend to play to the level of their competition.  We saw that a few weeks ago when they only lost 138-129 to the Celtics as 12-point home underdogs on November 29th.  Now they will be revenge-minded in the rematch three weeks later.

The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now due with only Josh Giddey listed as questionable.  The Celtics could be without Kristaps Porzingis, who is a game-time decision, ass is role player Sam Hauser.  I think the Bulls keep this closer than expected either way. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Pistons OVER 228

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.  This is my favorite OVER of the bunch.

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy and a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive rating.  The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games overall with 251, 260, 238, 240 and 239 combined points.  So this total of 228 is very low for a game involving Utah right now.

The OVER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall with 235, 250, 231, 222 and 249 combined points.  This total is also very low for a game involving the Pistons right now.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 230 or more combined points in all four.  These teams have combined for 276, 230, 237 and 241 points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, respectively. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The Washington Wizards profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  But the Wizards have been going under the total a lot recently, which has provided us some line value to 'buy low' on an OVER tonight.

The Wizards and Hornets have combined fro 231, 241 and 248 points in three of their last four meetings.  Ball played in all three of those games and didn't play in the one game during this stretch that didn't see at least 231 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cal/UNLV LA Bowl No-Brainer on UNLV PK

The UNLV Rebels went 10-3 this season with their losses coming to Boise State (twice) and Syracuse in OT.  Seven of their 10 wins came by double-digits as they were dominant against everyone else.

Syracuse is a common opponent, and Cal lost 33-25 at home to the Orange.  The Bears were outgained 471 to 391 by the Orange, or by 80 yards.

Cal will be without starting QB Fernando Mendoza, who is completing 68.7% of his passes on the season for 3,004 yards.  They could be without backup QB Chandler Rogers, who got hurt in their finale in a 38-6 loss at SMU.  It's no surprise Cal's worse performance of the season came without its starting QB in Mendoza. Plus, offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch is gone, and they will have a collaboration of staff calling plays.

Despite losing head coach Barry Odom, morale is still very high at UNLV with one of the best hires of the offseason in Dan Mullen.  Almost everyone for UNLV is expected to play, including two of their best defensive players in LB Jackson Woodard and CB Tony Grimes.  I think this team is on a mission to finish the Odom era strong as this is one of the most closely-knit teams in the country.  I expect them to get the job done against Cal and possibly a 3rd-string QB.  

It's also worth noting Cal leading receiver Nzyiah Hunter is in the transfer portal.  RB Jaivian Thomas sat out the last game against SMU with an injure.  LT Nick Morrow missed the finale and won't play in the bowl.  Starting LB Sioape Vatikani is questionable, as is starting MLB Cade Uluave, who missed the final three games.  

The Rebels haven't won a bowl game since 2000.  This group of players has accomplished a lot, but they want to put a stamp on it with their first bowl win in 24 years before many of them graduate or depart for different schools next season.  Bet UNLV in the LA Bowl Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +20

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS this season with their four wins coming against Canisius, ODU, Davidson and Southern Utah.  They lost to Oklahoma on a neutral, WVU on a neutral, UCLA in a semi-home game, Duke by 14 at home and Wisconsin by 15 on the road.

The Samford Bulldogs are one of the better mid-major teams in the country and looking forward to this opportunity of trying to take down a Power 4 team in Arizona.  They are 9-2 SU & 5-4 ATS this season with their only two losses coming by 2 at Cornell and by 8 at Michigan State as 17-point dogs.  And that effort at Michigan State tells me they can hang with Arizona considering I believe Michigan State is better than Arizona this season.  The Bulldogs have also had the last nine days off to rest and prepare for the Wildcats.  Bet Samford Wednesday.

15* Oklahoma/Michigan ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overrated due to their 10-0 start against the 325th-ranked schedule in the country.  They finally take a big step up in competition here against Michigan, which has faced the 114th-ranked schedule int he country.

The Wolverines have gotten off to a 8-2 start this season and could easily be 10-0 as both losses came by exactly 2 points to Arkansas and Wake Forest.  They also have impressive wins over Wisconsin, Iowa, Xavier, TCU and Virginia Tech.  They have been tested, and they are ready to hand Oklahoma its first loss of the season tonight.

The spot really favors the Wolverines as well.  They have had the last seven days off since that 2-point loss to Arkansas to rest and prepare for Oklahoma.  Meanwhile, the Sooners are coming off their huge in-state rivalry win over Oklahoma State on Saturday and only have three days in between games.  They are getting too much respect for that win over the Cowboys, who are way down this season.  Bet Michigan Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Bradley -1.5

The Bradley Braves have had one of the best home-court advantages in the country over the last decade.  They are 4-0 SU at home this season and I fully expect them to improve to 5-0 tonight.

San Francisco will be playing its first true road game this season in what I expect to be the Dons' toughest test to date.  They lost to both Clemson and Memphis on neutrals and won the rest of their games in a home-heavy schedule to this point.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15 CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on UC-San Diego +9.5

UC-San Diego was one of the most underrated teams in the country last season.  The Tritons opened 11-4 ATS in their first 15 lined games last season.  They have opened 9-2 SU & 8-2 ATS this season consistently crushing spreads.

The Tritons are 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with four outright upsets as underdogs.  They have covered their last six games by a combined 87.5 points, or by an average of 14.6 points per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Utah State after opening 10-0 this season against a very soft schedule.  The Aggies have done it against the 273rd-ranked schedule in the country.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet UC-San Diego Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Thunder NBA Cup Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and semifinals.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER is 5-1 in NBA Cup quarterfinals/semifinals. This total of 215 is too high for this matchup between the Bucks and Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating.  They held the Mavericks to 104 points in the quarterfinals, completing locking down Luka Doncic and company as nobody from Dallas scored more than 19 points.  They held the Rockets to 96 points in the semifinals.  They have allowed 110 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Bucks have been trending up defensively in recent weeks.  They held the high-powered Hawks to just 102 points on 42.7% shooting in the semifinals.  And I think they will be good enough defensively to keep this UNDER the 215-point total in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  It also benefits both teams defensively to have two days off in between games to prepare to stop one another.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Thunder NBA Cup No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by double-digits.  That includes their 118-104 win over Dallas and their 111-96 win over Houston in the quarterfinals and semifinals of the NBA Cup, respectively.

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating which is why they can be trusted every night.  And that's where a big difference in this NBA Cup Championship Game lies.  The Milwaukee Bucks rank 13th in the NBA in defensive rating and really struggle to defend opposing point guards.

The Bucks had a very easy path to get here.  They got to face the Magic without their top two scorers in Banchero and Wagner in the quarterfinals and were still life and death to win that game in a 114-109 victory.  They needed a late surge to put away the Atlanta Hawks 110-102 in the semifinals.  The Hawks were far and away the worst team that made the NBA Cup Quarterfinals.

So this is a big step up in class for the Bucks here after facing the short-handed Magic and the awful Hawks.  Now they must face arguably the best team in the NBA in the Thunder, and I don't expect it to go well for them in the Championship Game.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia State +39.5

This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on Auburn in what looks to be a flat spot for the Tigers.  They are coming off a 38-point win on a neutral against Ohio State just three days ago, and now they have another huge game on deck against Purdue on a neutral on Saturday.

The Boilermakers won't be nearly as motivated to beat Georgia State as they were to beat Ohio State and as they will be to beat Purdue.  Asking the Tigers to win this game by 40-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Georgia State only lost by 29 as 31-point dogs at Kentucky to give them a reasonable opponent to Auburn to compare to.  I don't believe Auburn is 8.5 points better than Kentucky, which they would have to be to justify this 39.5-point spread.  Bet Georgia State Tuesday.

15* UNC/Florida ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida -3.5

The Florida Gators are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS this season.  They beat Florida State by 13 as 5.5-point road favorites, beat Wake Forest by 17 as 7.5-point road favorites, beat Virginia by 18 as 17-point home favorites and crushed Arizona State by 17 as 7-point road favorites.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone 6-4 SU & 4-6 ATS this season.  The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall which includes a 3-point home win over a bad Georgia Tech team as 18-point favorites, a 15-point home loss to Alabama as 1.5-point favorites, a 3-point loss to Michigan State as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral and a 13-point loss to Auburn as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral.

I love the matchup for the Gators.  The weakness of the Tar Heels is their post play, and the Gators will dominate them inside.  The strength of the Tar Heels is their guard play, and the Gators have the long, athletic guards that will give Davis, Trimble and Cadeua problems.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Clippers OVER 222.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy.  They rank 13th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  But they have some firepower on offense when healthy.

The OVER is 4-0 in Utah's last four games overall combining for 239 points with Oklahoma City, 240 points with Portland, 238 with Sacramento and 260 with Phoenix.  They had Markkanen, Sexton and Clarkson on the floor at the same time against Phoenix and scored 126 points.  They haven't had those three on the court at the same time much this season until recently.

The Clippers are more of an under team with a good defense and suspect offense, but that's why this total is so low.  I'm fully expecting one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight.  They have scored 127, 126, 125 and 121 points in four of their last nine games and I think they will get 120-plus in this one.  

The Clippers and Jazz have combined for at least 219 points in each of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/Vikings ABC No-Brainer on Minnesota -6.5

The Chicago Bears fired head coach Eberflus last week and he clearly wasn't the problem.  A lot of money poured in on the Bears moving them all the way down to +3 against the 49ers and it couldn't have been more wrong.  The Bears were outgained 319 to 4 in total yards by the 49ers in the first half alone in a 38-13 road loss.

The Bears sit at 4-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention.  I don't expect them to put forth much of a better effort this week against the Vikings, either.  I do expect the Vikings to show up considering they sit at 11-2 just one game behind the Lions for first place in the division and possibly the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The Vikings are 6-0 in their last six games overall and coming off a 42-21 home win over the Falcons.  That was a Falcons team coming off their bye week so putting them away that easily in the 4th quarter was quite impressive.  Now the Vikings get some extra rest here with this being a Monday Night Football game and they need it.

The Vikings have managed to stay remarkably healthy this season and they should be at full strength this week if CB Stephon Gilmore returns after missing the Atlanta game.  Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level, throwing 5 touchdown passes with three to Addison and two to Jefferson last week.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he has enviable weapons in those two plus RB Jones and TE Hockenson that are just so tough to tame.

The Bears are getting too much respect here because they took the Vikings to OT in a 30-27 home loss a few weeks ago.  But that was a misleading final.  They were down 14 going into the 4th quarter and needed a TD with 22 seconds left to cut it to 3, and an onside kick to get the game-tying FG.  That's the kind of luck it's going to take again for the Bears to just be competitive.

And while the Bears have been competitive at home this season, it has been a different story on the road.  The Bears are 0-6 SU in true road games this season getting outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game.  The Vikings are 5-1 SU at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game with their lone loss coming to Detroit by 2. I'm expecting Minnesota to win this game by double-digits tonight.  

Home teams playing their 3rd consecutive home game against road teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game are 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 tries in the NFL.  This is a great spot for Minnesota and a terrible one for Chicago.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* NFL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Vikings OVER 43.5

The Chicago Bears fired head coach Eberflus last week and he clearly wasn't the problem.  They allowed 319 yards in the first half alone to the 49ers trailing 24-0 against a 49ers offense that hasn't been all that good in recent weeks due to injuries.  They lost 38-13.

We have seen something similar in New York as the Jets have been terrible defensively since firing Robert Saleh.  He was the mastermind of their defense that was a Top 5 unit since he has been there.  Eberflus has done the same in Chicago as they were one of the best defenses in the NFL last season and have been pretty good again this season under his watch.

Like the Jets, the Bears have focused on turning around their offense as a priority the rest of the season.  They took the Lions to the wire and should have won two weeks ago but the gaffe with letting the clock run out in the final seconds cost them at least a shot at OT.

We saw three weeks ago the Bears go toe to toe with the Vikings in a 30-27 (OT) shootout.  The Vikings had 452 total yards while the Bears finished with 398 total yards, and that game was played outdoors in the conditions in Chicago.  This rematch will be played indoors on a fast track.

Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level, throwing 5 touchdown passes with three to Addison and two to Jefferson last week in a 42-21 home win over the Falcons that saw 63 combined points.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he has enviable weapons in those two plus RB Jones and TE Hockenson that are just so tough to tame.

The Vikings rank 7th in the NFL averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense and I think they can pretty much name their number against this soft Chicago defense that allowed 38 points to the 49ers last week.  But the Vikings have really slipped defensively in recent weeks, giving up 398 yards to the Bears, 406 yards to the Cardinals and 496 yards to the Falcons in their last three games.  Chicago will do enough to help get this one up and OVER this 43.5-point total, which is below the keys of 44 and 45.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.