15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10

Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Demon Deacons are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  They won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.  They then had another bye week before coming back to upset SMU 13-12 as 4.5-point home dogs last week despite committing five turnovers.  They outgained the Mustangs by 55 yards and put an end to their 20-game ACC winning streak.

So Wake Forest has had two bye weeks already and just had one two weeks ago.  I think it negates the fact that Florida State is coming off its bye week as I don't think the Seminoles will really be that much fresher than the Demon Deacons.  I also question how much Florida State cares to finish out this disastrous season.

The Seminoles are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in ACC play this season with nothing to play for but pride.  They were upset at Virginia as 7-point favorites, were upset at home by Pitt as 10.5-point favorites and were upset at Stanford as 18-point favorites.  QB Thomas Castellanos is coming off a concussion suffered late in that loss to Stanford, and he may not be his usual aggressive self, and his dual-threat ability will be limited.

Wake Forest has a huge advantage on defense in this one.  The Demon Deacons are only allowing 24.8 points per game, 331.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in conference play this season.  Florida State is allowing 32 points per game, 386.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play in conference play.  I'll gladly back the better defense with more to play for catching double-digits in this one.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -5.5

Georgia Tech is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Yellow Jackets have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

NC State will be no match Saturday.  The Wolfpack are 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with one of the worst defenses in the country.  They allowed 36 points and 485 total yards to Notre Dame and 53 points and 509 total yards to Pitt in their last two games coming in.  They won't have much success against Haynes King and this high-powered Georgia Tech offense this week, either.

NC State's offense is potent, but it is much less potent now after losing its biggest playmakers in WR Justin Jolly to injury in last week's blowout loss to Pitt.  Jolly has a team-high 36 receptions for 365 yards and five TD this season.  He was CJ Bailey's go-to guy out of the slot in key 3rd down situations.  Leading rusher Hollywood Smothers (825 yards, 6 TD, 28 receptions, 170 yards) is also questionable for this one.

With a bye on deck next week, Georgia Tech will be fully focused for this one.  I think the Yellow Jackets easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* USC/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on OVER 59

USC is a wagon offensively this season under Lincoln Riley as this is his best offense in his time in Los Angeles.  The Trojans rank 1st in total offense at 530 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 42.4 points per game.  They are also 1st averaging 7.8 yards per play.  They have my vote for best offense in the country.

Nebraska has an improved offense this season with a more pass-happy approach to take advantage of the talents of QB Dylan Raiola.  The Huskers are 38th in scoring at 31.6 points per game.  They will be able to keep up with USC in a shootout Saturday because they are going to be forced to as the Trojans can pretty much name their number.  Both teams are much stronger on offense than defense.

Nebraska is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 57 or more combined points in five of those eight games and 65 or more four times.  The only two exceptions were against two dead nuts under teams in Minnesota and Northwestern, who also have two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.  This USC offense is going to be by far the best that Nebraska has faced this season.

USC is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those nine games, including 66 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Golden State Warriors -10.5

This is a great spot for the Golden State Warriors and a terrible one for the Indiana Pacers.  The Warriors had yesterday off while the Pacers were playing in a NBA Cup game against the Atlanta Hawks, so they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Pacers can't handle back-to-backs right now with how short-handed they are.  They started the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard and Topping to injury.  It's no wonder they have opened the season 0-5, and it's not going to get any easier for them tonight.

The Warriors will be fully focused after letting down their guard in an upset loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last time out when the Bucks ruled out Giannis right before the game.  The Warriors thought they could just show up and win.  They won't have that mindset again tonight, and they will win with plenty of room to spare.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/Ole Miss OVER 54.5

Ole Miss really profiles as an OVER team.  The Rebels rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They also rank 19th in scoring at 37.0 points per game, 11th in total offense at 484.2 yards per game and 24th at 6.5 yards per play.  They'll be up against a South Carolina defense that has taken a big step down from last season with all the talent they lost to the NFL.

We've seen what Ole Miss is capable of against two great defenses the last two weeks.  The Rebels won 34-26 at Oklahoma for 60 combined points and lost 43-35 to Georgia for 78 combined points.  I have no doubt the Rebels will get their points again this week, and South Carolina will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.

The Gamecocks have one of the best QB's in the SEC in La'Norris Sellers who will be game.  Sellers played well in a 29-22 loss to Alabama last week.  He threw for 222 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 67 yards and a score.  I think he is in line for one of his biggest games of the season against an Ole Miss defense that also has taken a big step down from last season with all of the talent lost to the NFL.

The Gamecocks also like to play fast ranking 41st in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game with more opportunities for points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Oxford too with temps in the 50's, no wind and only a 20% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +21

The Michigan Wolverines aren't the team you want to be laying three touchdowns with.  They have a run-heavy offense and they play at a snail's pace.  Those facts alone make it difficult for them to cover these big numbers.

Michigan ranks 19th in run play percentage at 58.7% and 105th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds.  The Wolverines have been held to 24 points or fewer in four consecutive games basically when you take away the breakaway 56-yard TD run against Michigan State when they were just trying to run out the clock last week.  The managed 24 against Washington, 13 against USC and 24 against Wisconsin.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Purdue after six straight losses and five straight non-covers.  This is a team that is going to keep fighting under a first-year head coach in Barry Odom.  They outgained Minnesota and deserve to win, they were pretty even in the stats in their loss to Illinois, and they had control of the game against Rutgers basically the entire way until the final seconds in a 3-point loss.  Their only loss by more than 19 points this season came on the road at Notre Dame.

I like the matchup for Purdue because their defensive weakness is against the pass, but they have held up well against the run.  They allow just 4.0 yards per carry on the season, holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages.  Michigan threw for just 86 yards against Michigan State last week as the passing game continues to struggle.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +7.5

The Kansas State Wildcats remain undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS start this season with losses by 3, 3 and 6 points.  The Wildcats have since gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming by a single point at Baylor on a 52-yard FG as 6-point dogs.  They crushed UCF by 14 as 6-point home favorites, upset TCU by 13 as 3-point home dogs and upset Kansas 42-17 as 3-point road dogs.

The Wildcats had a bye prior to that win over Kansas, so they should still be very fresh for this game against Texas Tech and will be relishing this opportunity to try and knock off a Top 15 opponent.  Avery Johnson is really playing well right now at QB with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

We saw how vulnerable the Red Raiders were in their last road game falling 26-22 at Arizona State as 7-point favorites.  Kansas State is better than Arizona State.  The Red Raiders were outgained 276 to 394 by the Sun Devils, or by 118 yards.  The weakness is this Texas Tech secondary, which allowed 30-of-39 passing for 245 yards to Kansas and 319 passing yards to Sam Leavitt and ASU.  Johnson should have a big game through the air here in likely leading K-State to an upset victory, but we'll take the inflated +7.5 for some extra cushion.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Kansas State OVER 51.5

This numbers looks too short for how good both of these offenses are playing right now.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout in Manhattan Saturday with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.

Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in seven of its eight games this season and ranks 5th in the country in scoring at 40.3 points per game.  The Red Raiders get back starting QB Behren Morton for this one, and while there's not a huge difference between him and backup Will Hammond, the offense has more big play potential with his stronger arm.

Kansas State has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games and is averaging 37.8 points per game during this stretch.  Avery Johnson is playing the best football of his career with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

Texas Tech and Kansas State have combined for at least 52 points in four of their last five meetings and 16 of their last 18 meetings overall.  This total of 51.5 is very short for a game involving these two Big 12 rivals.  Texas Tech ranks 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds despite blowing out most of its opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +10.5

Virginia Tech still has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Hokies are showing great value catching double-digits at home to Louisville Saturday.  The Hokies returned from their bye with a 42-34 win over California racking up 476 total yards including 357 rushing, outgaining the Golden Bears by 151 yards.

Now they should still be fresh and know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' to try and beat a Top 25 team here in Louisville.  I think the Cardinals are overvalued since upsetting Miami 24-21 on the road as 10-point dogs two weeks ago as the Hurricanes basically handed them the victory with 4 turnovers.

Louisville came back last week predictably flat in a 38-24 home win over Boston College as 26-point favorites.  That's a Boston College team that is on a 6-game losing streak including home losses to UConn by 15 and Clemson by 31, and a road loss to Pitt by 41 in its previous three games coming in.  It was a bad, bad look for Louisville.

This will be Louisville's first trip to Blacksburg since joining the ACC 11 years ago.  The Cardinals are 0-3 all-time in Blacksburg, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  Their home field is worth more than is being factored into the line here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Iowa State -5.5

I jumped on Iowa State as soon as I heard that Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was out.  I got further good news when WR Jordan Tyson was listed as doubtful.  I would still play Iowa State up to -10 given the news.

Leavitt and Tyson are worth more to the point spread than is being factored into this line even at the current number.  I have the downgrade from Leavitt to backup Sims at least 7 points.  Sims hasn't won anywhere he has gone, and he is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt on his 49 passes and 3.0 yards per carry on his 29 rushes this season.  Tyson may be the best receiver in the country, catching 57 balls for 628 yards and 8 TD this season while single-handedly carrying the Sun Devils to their victory over Texas Tech two games ago.

Tyson was out and Leavitt got hurt in the 2H of their 24-16 home loss to Houston as 7.5-point favorites last week.  They actually trailed that game 24-0 in a misleading final.  Houston's mediocre offense had great success against this ASU defense finishing with 384 total yards despite sitting on the ball in the 2H, or it could have been worse.

Iowa State is a prideful team, and coming off three consecutive Big 12 losses the Cyclones have piss and vinegar running through their blood.  They also want revenge on Arizona State after losing to them in the Big 12 Championship Game last year to cost them a shot at the 12-team playoff.  I expect a big effort from the Cyclones Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three misleading losses.  They were missing a ton of starters in their 38-30 loss at Cincinnati in which they were only outgained by 9 yards.  They outgained Colorado by 46 yards in a 24-17 road loss in which they were done in by official.  And last week they outgained BYU 495 to 410, or by 85 total yards, but were -3 in turnovers including two interceptions that were both basically 14-point swings.  One pick 6 and one INT deep in BYU territory.

Iowa State got a much-needed bye two weeks ago and returned with a big performance against BYU in a game they had like a 70% post-game win expectancy, the biggest of any team that loss last week.  They are much healthier now and should still be pretty fresh for this one.  Not only are the Sun Devils without their two best players, but they are also a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week after three very physical games against Utah, Texas Tech and Houston.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Texas ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

Vanderbilt really profiles as an UNDER team.  The Commodores rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  Possessions are limited in their games, so points are much harder to come by.

Texas also profiles as an UNDER team with a terrible offense and a great defense.  Texas is 5-3 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in five of its eight games, including 37 or fewer combined points four times.

Texas ranks 10th in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, 20th in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 12th at 4.4 yards per play.  But the Longhorns have an underwhelming offense with Arch Manning, who is questionable for this one coming off a concussion.  I'm good with the UNDER whether or not he plays.  The Longhorns rank 78th in total offense at 375.6 yards per game and 75th at 5.6 yards per play.  This is the worst offense of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas.

Vanderbilt is 3-1 UNDER in its four SEC games this season finishing with 38 combined points with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 27 with Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Illinois OVER 62

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 62.8 points per game in those 16 games.  This total of 62 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 27 points in 10 of their last 12 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over three weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own two weeks ago putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 30.6 points per game, 425.9 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.7 yards per play, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 31.4 points per game, averaging 426 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.

Illinois is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 67 combined points with Washington, 70 with Purdue, 66 with USC and 73 with Indiana.  The only game that stayed under was against Ohio State in a 34-16 loss for 50 combined points with a 51-point total, but Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is a dead nuts under team.

Like Rutgers, Illinois' offense is way ahead of its defense this season.  The Fighting Illini are scoring 32.9 points per game.  Senior QB Luke Altmyer has been awesome, completing 71.2% of his passes for 2,020 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt despite facing a tough schedule.  He is going to shred this suspect Rutgers defense.

It has been a bad look for this Illinois defense in conference play.  Indeed, the Fighting Illini are allowing 39.6 points per game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big Ten action.  Rutgers is going to be able to keep scoring as it tries to keep up with Illinois in a shootout.  The forecast looks great Saturday with temps approaching 50, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Navy/North Texas OVER 65.5

This should be a back-and-forth shootout between two of the best offenses in the country up against two of the worst defenses in the country.  North Texas ranks 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  The forecast looks great for a shootout in Denton with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation Saturday.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.

North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 46.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 494.5 yards per game and 17th at 6.8 yards per play.  QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 67.7% of his passes with a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Navy's biggest weakness is against the pass because they don't get to practice against a decent passing game every week.  In their three games against decent passing attacks they allowed 321 passing yards to UAB, 345 to Temple and 381 to Florida Atlantic.  North Texas has a better offense and passing game than all three of those teams.

Navy is 6-1 OVER in all games this season going for 62 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  North Texas is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games finishing with 63 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 69 or more five times.  Both teams have incentive to keep running it up if they get ahead as both are in contention for the 12-team playoff.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy +7

What more does Navy have to do to get some respect? The Midshipmen should not be catching a full touchdown at North Texas this week, and they likely shouldn't be catching any points at all.

After going 10-3 last season, the Midshipmen brought almost everyone back and are off to a 7-0 start this season.  I like the fact that they've failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games coming into this one because it has provided us with some extra line value to back them this week.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas is 7-1 this season but I have not been impressed.  They won by 3 over Western Michigan as 11.5-point road favorites and by 7 as 2.5-point road favorites at Army in OT.  Army is nowhere near as good as Navy, and North Texas was very fortunate to win that game.  Against the only team the caliber of Navy they have faced this season they were crushed 63-36 at home by South Florida as 2.5-point favorites.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +3.5

I question how much Baylor really wants to finish out the season at this point.  The Bears are coming off consecutive road losses to TCU 42-36 and to Cincinnati 41-20.  The Bears only managed 266 total yards against a mediocre Cincinnati defense last week as their offense finally couldn't make up for one of the worst defenses in the country.

Baylor ranks 120th in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 101st in total defense at 403.1 yards per game.  The Bears are wasting a great QB in Sawyer Robertson, who is forced to try and keep up in shootouts week after week.  Even when they win it's not by margin as they are 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season with a 3-point win in OT against SMU and a 1-point win over Kansas State.  The only two teams they beat by more than 3 points this season were FCS Samford and the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State.

UCF is improving under first-year head coach Scott Frost.  The Knights are coming off their best performance of the season in a 45-13 win over West Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  They had a bye last week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Baylor, which is a huge advantage for teams with a first-year head coach.

UCF had a misleading 20-11 loss at Cincinnati the week prior.  UCF actually outgained Cincinnati 413 to 306, or by 107 total yards.  Holding that Cincinnati offense to just 306 total yards is no joke.  They went on to outgain WVU 578 to 210, or by 368 total yards.  The Knights have a much better defense than they get credit for, and the bye week gives QB Tayven Jackson extra time to overcome some injuries that have plagued him thus far.  

UCF is the better team, period.  The Knights average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  The Bears average 6.1 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play.  The Knights are primed for a big effort here and I fully expect them to pull off the upset, but we'll take the +3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -10.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their four games while getting outscored by 19.0 points per game.  There isn't much to like about this team other than Zion Williamson, who is already banged up to start the season.  This is one of the worst rosters in the league.

The Clippers have one of the best rosters in the league.  The starting 5 of Harden, Leonard, Zubac, Beal and Dunn is elite.  And the bench of Collins, Jones Jr., Collins, Lopez, Batum and Paul is about as good as it gets.

The Clippers have been impressive in their two home games this season beating the Suns by 27 and the Blazers by 7.  They lost their two road games to Utah and Golden State.  They are coming off a blowout loss to the Warriors where they went ice cold in the 2H.  They have had the last two days off to correct their mistakes, and they should be fired up to bounce back here against the weakest opponent they have faced yet this season.  

Look for them to take out their frustration on the Pelicans tonight, and they have incentive to get margin with this being a NBA Cup game and point differential a key tiebreaker.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Blazers OVER 238.5

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

Both the Blazers and Nuggets are dead nuts OVER teams as it is.  The Blazers are 4-1 OVER in their five games this season, including 270 combined points at the end of regulation with the Jazz last time out.  The Nuggets are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season finishing with 241 or more combined points in three of their four games.

The Blazers rank 2nd in pace this season as they are playing a frenetic brand of basketball.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  The Nuggets rank 3rd in offensive rating and should be fully healthy coming into this one.  They are scoring 128.3 points per game on 52.7% shooting and should get whatever they want against the Blazers in this one.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Blazers finishing with 237 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Lakers/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 238

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are dead nuts OVER teams as it is playing great offense and terrible defense.  The Lakers are 5-0 OVER in their five games this season despite playing without Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  Well, Doncic is expected back tonight for the NBA Cup.  The Lakers rank 18th in defensive rating and will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

The Grizzlies are 3-2 OVER in their five games this season finishing with 249 or more combined points three times.  Memphis ranks 3rd in pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Grizzlies rank 17th in defensive rating at this point.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lakers and Grizzlies finishing with 240 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings!  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Bulls OVER 233.5

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  Their trend of playing faster last season has continued this season as they rank 6th in pace.  They went for 239 combined points with the Kings and 251 with the Hawks in their last two games coming in.

The Knicks are loaded offensively this season and will be up against a Bulls defense that will be the weakest they have faced yet after having to go up against the Cavs, Celtics, Heat and Bucks to this point.  I think the Knicks will put up their highest point total of the season tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Bulls and Knicks finishing with 239 or more combined points four times, including 265, 247 and 245 in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Rice ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Rice +14

This is a bad spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating South Florida 34-31 in a game that many felt was the AAC Championship Game.  They have a short week while also having to travel clear to Houston to face Rice.  And they have an even bigger game against Tulane on deck that could decide which team makes the AAC Championship Game.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Memphis.

The Tigers could easily have three losses this season and probably should have three losses.  They did lose 31-24 at UAB as 24-point favorites in a clear lookahead spot with USF on deck.  They trailed Arkansas 28-10 late in the 3rd quarter at home before a bevy of Razorbacks blunders allowed them to come back and win 32-31, including a fumble when they were just trying to run out the clock to set up the game-winning FG.  Last week they trailed South Florida 31-17 heading into the 4th quarter before scoring 17 unanswered points to win 34-31, again taking advantage of USF mistakes.  USF outgained Memphis 564 to 450, or by 104 total yards.

Rice returned from a bye last week and upset UConn 37-34 as 10-point home dogs.  That's a UConn team that has been impressive this season.  The Owls used their bye week to really hone in on offensive improvement, and they put forth their best effort of the season racking up 491 total yards on the Huskies.  They rushed for 300 and threw for 191 more on 17-of-22 passing in a completely dominant effort on that side of the football.

Rice QB Chase Jenkins is completing 69.4% of his passes on the season whlie also rushing for 332 yards and four scores.  He is much better than he gets credit for, and this Rice offense should be able to move the ball at will on the ground against a Memphis defense that allowed 219 rushing yards to UAB and 295 to USF the last two weeks.

Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is not 100% and less of a dual-threat now than he was to start the season.  He was knocked out of the UAB and game and questionable all week leading up to the USF game.  Rice has been solid defensively this season allowing 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and 5.7 yards per play overall.  They are holding opponents to 28 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play less than their season averages.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game for Rice.  The Owls will be looking at this like their 'national championship game', while the Tigers want to just get in and get out with a win.  I think it will be tough sledding for the Tigers given the sandwich spot on the short week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Rice win this game outright, but getting a full 14 points is a gift.  Bet Rice Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Heat/Spurs OVER 232.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They did go for just 222 combined points against the Knicks in their next game, but the Knicks shot 39% from the field and 28% from 3.  They came back with a 144-117 home win over the Hornets last time out for 261 combined points.

The Heat rank 7th in offensive rating this season and take on a Spurs team that ranks 6th in offensive rating.  The Spurs have a lot of talent surrounding Victor Wembenyama, who has been a monster offensively to start the season.  Castle, Vassell, Johnson and Dylan Harper have played well to start, and this team has pretty good offensive chemistry former from late last season.

But this is a big step up in class for this San Antonio defense after getting to face the Raptors, Nets, Pelicans and Mavericks.  I don't think they will be ready for what the Heat bring to the table here playing at a breakneck pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +6

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with their lone loss coming by 4 in their opener at Orlando as 8-point dogs.  They came back and crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, and crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

You could make the argument that the Spurs are undervalued as well, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS to start the season.  But it's the Spurs that are 6-point favorites here when this line should be much closer to PK.  And this will be a big step up in class for the Spurs after beating four of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks, Pelicans, Nets and Raptors to start the season.  Those four teams are a combined 3-16 this season!

The Heat own the Spurs, going 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings including five consecutive victories.  Their lone loss came by 4 points.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Ravens/Dolphins AFC No-Brainer on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have new life.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling with consecutive losses to fall to 4-3 on the season.  Now the Ravens are just two games back of the Steelers despite their disastrous 2-5 start to the season.  But that start has provided us with some line value on the Ravens moving forward.

Injuries were the biggest reason to the poor start.  The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since Week 4, and they have been without several key defenders who are all healthy now.  Jackson is back this week, and Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey are all healthy now after all previously missed time.

No question the Ravens have one of the league's top offenses when Jackson is healthy, and the defense is going to be one of the best in the league moving forward.  That was on display last week when the Ravens shut down the Bears 30-16 last week, winning and covering easily even with Tyler Huntley at QB.  They made life very tough on Caleb Williams and an improved Bears offense under Ben Johnson.

Now the Ravens take a big step down in class here against the injury-depleted Miami Dolphins, who are 2-6 this season.  The Dolphins are without two of their biggest playmakers on offense in Tyreke Hill and Darren Waller, and Waller's replacement in Julian Hill is out this week.  And already terrible Dolphins defense will be without CB Storm Duck and SS Ashtyn Davis this week, and DE Bradley Chubb is questionable.

The Dolphins are getting some respect after a 34-10 win in Atlanta last week.  Well, the Falcons were without QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London, and they were missing several starters on defense as well.  Bettors are quick to forget that the Dolphins lost 31-6 to the lowly Browns the previous week.  They have zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Ravens.

The Dolphins have some terrible numbers.  They are averaging just 286 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 344 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in YPP on offense and 26th in YPP on defense.

I bet the Ravens -6.5 as soon as the line came out and would still play them at -7.5.  The Ravens also make a great teaser candidate this week if you want to use them in teasers it is a free bingo space.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall/Coastal Carolina OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  That has been on display the last four weeks as the Thundering Herd are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.  They beat Middle Tennessee 42-28 for 70 combined points, lost 54-51 to Louisiana for 105 combined points, beat ODU 48-24 for 72 combined points and beat Texas State 40-37 for 77 combined points.

This total of 54.5 is very short for a game involving Marshall.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 74.4% of his passes for 1,133 yards with a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 348 yards and four scores.  

The Thundering Herd will be able to name their number against a Coastal Carolina defense that ranks 98th in scoring at 28.3 points per game and 109th in total defense at 409.7 yards per game.  The Chanticleers allowed 37 points to App State, 47 to Old Dominion, 38 to ECU and 48 to Virginia.

The Chanticleers are 2-1-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 82 points with App State, 54 with ODU and 58 with South Alabama.  The only game that went under came against a dead nuts under team in ULM that plays slow, only runs the ball and had QB injuries.

Coastal Carolina plays at the 31st-fastest tempo in college football.  The Chanticleers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season putting up 45 points on Appalachian State.  They also put up 38 points on South Alabama, and they should keep it rolling tonight against a Marshall defense that ranks 114th in scoring defense at 30.9 points per game, 114th in total defense at 413.6 yards per game and 115th allowing 6.2 yards per play.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets OVER 239

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Orlando Magic visit the Charlotte Hornets.  The Magic are 3-2 OVER this season with 251, 260 and 246 combined points in their three OVERS.  The Hornets are 4-0 OVER this season with 253, 246, 252 and 261 combined points in their four games.

The Hornets will remain a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy.  They rank 4th in pace, 4th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating.  The additions of Collin Sexton (18.5 PPG, 58.1% FG's) and Kon Knueppel (16.0 PPG, 52.3% FG's) have only added more firepower for them offensively.

The Magic were previously a dead nuts under team.  But they completely changed their offensive philosophy this season.  They rank 9th in pace and are making a point of playing faster.  It has hurt them defensively as they rank 23rd in defensive rating.  They allowed 135 points to the Pistons, 136 to the 76ers and 121 to the Heat.  Both teams will get whatever they want offensively in this game, and it will see a ton of possessions with two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Jazz OVER 233

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 6th in pace and have one of the best young rosters in the NBA.  The Jazz have some offensive firepower, but they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

The Blazers are 3-1 OVER this season going for 230 or more combined points in three of their four games.  The only game that stayed under was against the Clippers, who are a dead nuts under team playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA and also one that plays sound defense.

The Jazz are 2-1 OVER in their three games including 237 combined points with that same Clippers team and 248 at the end of regulation against the Suns.  Both of those games were at home, where they tend to score more.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blazers and Jazz finishing with 236 or more combined points in four of the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 5 No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Blue Jays and Dodgers have combined for at least 8 runs in five of their six meetings since August 9th.  Both teams are scoring over 5.0 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in baseball.  The offenses will continue to have the advantage in Game 5, especially with temps in the 80's tonight with the ball flying out.

This is a rematch from Game 1 where Toronto beat LA 11-4 for 15 combined runs.  Trey Yesavage allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings.  Yesavage has now allowed 9 earned runs and 22 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last three playoff starts.  He won't last very long in this one, and the Dodgers should do some damage against this suspect Toronto bullpen.

Blake Snell was shelled for 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings in Game 1 to the Blue Jays.  Snell hasn't lasted more than 5 innings in any of his last three starts against Toronto.  So the Dodgers' suspect bullpen will get exposed in this one as well, and both teams should continue to pour on the runs in the later innings.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three upset wins over the Hawks, Magic and Pistons.  They remain undervalued here as only 4.5-point favorites at home over the Kings, especially when you consider the favorable spot they are in.

The Bulls had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.  The Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after a tough 107-101 road loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They gave up a 17-4 run at the end.

I was on the Kings +10.5 last night because it was a good spot for them as the Thunder were short-handed and playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But now I'm fading them here as I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Bulls, who will test their tired legs by playing at a frenetic pace tonight.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Kings last night.

The Kings are 1-3 SU with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Utah Jazz.  They also lost to the short-handed Suns, the short-handed Lakers and the short-handed Thunder at the time they played them.  The Bulls are at near full strength tonight and will blow the Kings out of the building.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Nets OVER 235.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they play no defense.  Now they face a Brooklyn Nets team that also plays no defense.  This game should sail OVER this 235.5-point total tonight.

The Nets rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating allowing 131.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 24th allowing 118.1 points per 100 possessions.  But the Hawks are elite offensively, and the Nets have some scoring punch in the likes of Cam Thomas, Michael Porter Jr. and Terance Mann.

The Nets are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season combining for 253 points with the Hornets, 255 with the Cavs and 246 with the Rockets, who are a dead nuts under team that plays at the slowest pace in the NBA.  The Hawks went for 256 combined points with the Raptors and 251 with the Bulls.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236 or more combined points in all three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1.5

This is a very favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  The Clippers had yesterday off and haven't had to play a back-to-back yet this season.  They have two more days off after this game, so they will be fully focused and ready to go.

This is a terrible spot for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 131-118 home win over the Memphis Grizzlies last night.  It will be their 2nd back-to-back already this season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Warriors rest some guys tonight.  All five starters played at least 27 minutes last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Clippers, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA this season.

The Clippers simply own the Warriors.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They beat the Rockets and Pacers in OT, and they only beat the Mavericks by 7.  They should not be favored by double-digits tonight given all their injuries and their disadvantage in the rest department.

The Thunder couldn't possibly be more tired than they are right now.  Those two OT games took a lot out of them, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 101-94 win at Dallas last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.

The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe tonight.  These injuries are a big reason the Thunder haven't been blowing teams out on the regular like they did last season.

The Kings couldn't be more rested as they had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game of the season.  They are also highly motivated for a win after opening 1-2 with both losses coming by 4 and 7 points.  The Kings are also pretty much fully healthy with a very good starting lineup and two nice pieces off the bench in Monk and Westbrook.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

20* Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 4 No-Brainer on OVER 8

The 18-inning marathon last night taxed both of these bullpens.  I don't trust either Shane Bieber or Shohei Ohtani to be able to go very deep in Game 4, and the hitters should have the advantage.  Temps will be approaching 90 at game time for this one so the ball should be carrying out as well.

Ohtani has to be especially tired after playing all 18 innings last night and reaching base 9 times!  I really think it could affect his performance on the mound, and at the very least he won't be as sharp as he normally would.  He may wear down after a few innings.

The Dodgers should crush Shane Bieber, who has allowed at least 2 earned runs in five consecutive starts and a total of 6 homers in his last five starts.  Ohani has posted a 5.25 ERA in two career home starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 innings.  Both bullpens will get rocked when they depart.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* CFB Tuesday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on UTEP +10

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State.  The Owls are 5-2 overall and 3-0 in C-USA play while sitting in 1st place in the conference.  They have benefited from playing the 126th-ranked schedule in the country.

The Owls also benefited from LA Tech's starting QB getting knocked out early in their last home game, and they are coming off a misleading 45-26 win at FIU last week in which they were outgained and allowed a whopping 518 total yards to FIU.  They lost some key defenders to injury in that game, and also their starting QB Odom and starting RB Bennett, who are both listed as questionable to play this week.

While Kennesaw State was watching its roster get decimated by injuries in the win over FIU last Tuesday, UTEP was sitting, resting and watching.  The Miners had a bye last week and will be the fresher, more prepared team tonight as a result.

I was happy to see UTEP finally bench QB Malachi Nelson in their last game, a 35-17 win over Sam Houston State.  They must have felt like they had to start him after paying him in the transfer portal, but they have finally done the right thing and started the much more talented Skyler Locklear in his place.

Locklear went 21-of-26 for 236 yards and 2 TD with 1 INT, while also rushing for 48 yards and two scores in the 35-17 win over Sam Houston State last time out.  The Miners racked up 411 total yards in the win.  Their offense will be much more explosive moving forward, and their defense is one of the most underrated in C-USA.

In fact, the Miners have the much better defense than the Owls in this one.  UTEP only allows 5.1 yards per play on defense including 3.7 yards per rush.  Kennesaw State allows 5.7 yards per play on defense and 4.5 yards per rush.  So we are getting the rested team with the better defense and an improved offense catching double-digits here.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat OVER 239.5

This is a matchup between two dead nuts OVER teams that should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season by the end of regulation.  Both the Heat and Hornets want to play fast this season, and that will be on display tonight.

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They did go for just 222 combined points against the Knicks in their next game, but the Knicks shot 39% from the field and 28% from 3.

Charlotte ranks 5th in pace this season and will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the show.  The additions of rookie Knueppel and Collin Sexton from the Jazz give this offense some more juice.  The Hornets actually rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.

The Hornets went for 253 combined points with the Nets, 246 with the 76ers and 252 with the Warriors for a 3-0 OVER start to the season.  This total of 239.5 actually isn't that high for a game involving the Hornets, especially when you factor in they are playing the team that ranks No. 1 in pace this season in the Heat.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 226.5

The Lakers are 3-0 OVER in all games this season going for 228 combined points with the Warriors, 238 with the Timberwolves and 247 with the Kings.  And that effort against the Kings came without both Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  Their bench is terrible defensively but they can provide some offense, which is why they remain an OVER team.

The Blazers played at the fasted pace in the NBA in the preseason, and they currently rank 7th in pace through three games despite playing three teams that like to play slow while also playing great defense in the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves.  They went for 232 combined points with the Timberwolves, 258 with the Warriors and 221 with the Clippers.

The pace was there to cash the OVER against the Clippers last night, but the shooting was not.  The Blazers short 37% from the floor and 11-of-41 (27%) from 3-point range.  They will clearly shoot much better against the Lakers, one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a in a world of hurt right now without their two best players in Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  They managed to beat the Kings last night without these two thanks to a career game from Austin Reaves, who scored 51 points.  But he won't be able to do that again, and the Lakers will struggle on the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

Reaves played 39 minutes, Hachimura played 40 and Ayton 36 last night.  The Lakers also lost starting G Gabe Vincent to injury in that game and he is out for this one now.  They are just so short-handed right now, and the Blazers will test those tired legs playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.

The Blazers hung tough in a 7-point road loss to the Clippers last night.  So there is no travel involved which will keep them fresh.  The Blazers are one of the youngest, deepest teams in the NBA so they will be able to handle this situation better than the Lakers.

The Blazers are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS this season only losing by 4 to the Timberwolves, beating the Warriors by 20 and losing by 7 to the Clippers.  So they have played a brutal schedule thus far, and this is a big step down in class for them here against a Lakers team without three starters.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -5.5

This is a very favorable spot for the Nuggets.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game of the season.  The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game of the season already.

Making matters worse for the Timberwolves is that they lost their best player in Anthony Edwards for two weeks in their 114-110 win over the Pacers last night.  They will be pretty lost without him as Edwards just doesn't miss games and has played through injury his entire career thus far.

That was a very short-handed Pacers team last night and the Timberwolves struggled to put them away.  All four starters other than Edwards played at least 34 minutes, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are fully healthy to open the season and one of the best teams in the NBA when that's the case.  Jokic, Gordon, Murray and Braun are back and they replaced Michael Porter Jr. with Cam Johnson, who is a more consistent performer night in and night out.  I like the depth they added on the bench with Hardaway Jr, Brown and Valanciunas to go along with Peyton Watson.  The rested Nuggets will make easy work of the short-handed, tired Timberwolves tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Monday.

20* Commanders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 points per game and 411.8 total yards per game.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Commanders won't offer them any resistance tonight, and the Chiefs should hang up another big number here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Commanders rank 21st in scoring defense at 24.3 points per game, 27th in total defense at 364.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.  They just allowed 44 points to the Cowboys last week and they are so banged up on defense right now.  They have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL, and that secondary is getting no help with four key depth pieces on the defensive line on IR in Armstrong, Wise, Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  DT Daron Payne is questionable as well.

But a big reason I'm on the OVER this week is because the Commanders get back their two biggest playmakers in WR Terry McClaurin and WR Deebo Samuel from injury after both missed the Dallas game last week.  I'm not concerned about the drop off from Jaden Daniels to Marcus Mariota because Mariota has proven he can get it done when he has his weapons.

The OVER is 3-0 in Mariota's three starts this season combining for 65 points with the Raiders, 61 with the Falcons and 66 with the Cowboys.  Mariota went 15-of-21 for 207 yards and a TD in leading the Commanders to 41 points against the Raiders.  He threw another pair of TD passes in leading them to 27 points against the Falcons and didn't have McCLaurin in that game either.  The Commanders are fully healthy on offense coming into this one outside of QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers OVER 226.5

The Magic have transformed into more of an OVER team this season with the addition of Desmond Bane and the return to health of Jalen Suggs.  They have made a point of playing faster, as evidenced by them ranking 6th in the NBA in pace to this point.

The 76ers are 2-0 OVER in their two games this season going for 233 combined points with the Celtics and 246 with the Hornets.  They have two great guards in Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, and they have to go smaller without Joel Embiid tonight.  That should help with the OVER.  The 76ers are 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Clippers OVER 225.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team, and this total of 225.5 is very low for a game involving them.  The Blazers played at the fasted pace of any team in the preseason, and they are currently 5th in pace through two games this season.

Portland lost 118-114 at home to Minnesota for 232 combined points and beat Golden State 139-119 for 258 combined points in its first two games this season.  This is a young, deep lineup that likes to get out and run and force the pace with pressure defense as well.

The Clippers lost 129-108 to the Jazz for 237 combined points and beat the Suns 129-102 for 231 combined points.  They played at a snail's pace in both games and still easily topped this total.  It was played slower because of the blowout nature of the two games as starters were pulled in the 4th quarter of both.

This should be a competitive game so both teams should be playing their starters deep into the 4th quarter.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Blazers and Clippers with 232 or more combined points in five of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

Both the Kings and Lakers look like dead nuts OVER teams this season with all offense and no defense.  The Lakers rank 4th in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating through two games. The Kings rank in the middle of the pack in both.

The Lakers are 2-0 OVER in their two games this season combining for 228 points with the Warriors in their opener and 238 points with the Timberwolves last time out.   Luka Doncic had 49 points against the Timberwolves and is all offense and no defense again this season.

The Kings combined for 236 points with the Suns in their opener.  They only went for 209 with the Jazz last time out, but both teams shot very poorly.  The Jazz shot 13-of-41 from 3, and there were very few fouls called and easy points for both teams.

Both teams have pretty small lineups, particularly the Kings who are going with LaVine, Schroder, DeRozan, Jones and Sabonis and bringing Monk, Westbrook and Ellis off the bench.  The Lakers go Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, Vincent and Ayton, who is a good offensive big man but doesn't provide much defensively.  I also like LaRavia who is instant offense off the bench.

The Lakers and Kings have gone for at least 227 combined points in 12 of their last 14 meetings, including 234 or more in 10 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3.5

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  They will be playing with piss and vinegar in their blood after getting upset 33-31 by the Bengals on Thursday Night Football last week.  They could have been caught looking ahead to this huge game, which is the Aaron Rodgers revenge game.  It's the first time Rodgers will get a shot at his former team, and his Steelers teammates love him.  They will rally around him and get him that win, and at the very least the Steelers should not be 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.

Rodgers is proving he's still got it, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while only getting sacked 9 times.  Nobody gets the ball out faster than Rodgers, so I'm not concerned with Micah Parsons and this Green Bay pass rush.  Cleveland has a similar pass rush, and the Steelers dominated them 23-9 two weeks ago.  Rodgers went 21-of-30 for 235 yards and 2 TD and didn't get sacked once against the Browns.

This Pittsburgh defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL moving forward if they remain as healthy as they are right now.  Injuries were a big reason they struggled up to this point as they have been without CB Porter Jr., FS Elliott and LB Highsmith among others at times.  But they are fully healthy on defense now, and the Packers are fully healthy on offense as well with only C Frazier questionable.  In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a team more healthy than the Steelers right now.

The Packers have just been getting by and are very close to being on a 4-game losing streak right now.  They lost outright as 7.5-point road favorites at Cleveland, they tied the Cowboys as 6.5-point road favorites, they only beat the Bengals by 9 off their bye week as 14-point home favorites, and last week they escaped with a 27-23 road win as 7-point favorites against Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.  They were held to 262 total yards and were outgained by 68 yards by the lowly Cardinals last week.

This is a tired Packers team playing their 4th road game in 5 games.  The Steelers have the extra rest and preparation time from playing last Thursday, and I think that advantage will really work in their favor here as they will be more ready for the Packers.  Mike Tomlin is 19-13 SU & 22-7-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Steelers Sunday night.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Broncos OVER 47.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 47.5 Sunday night assuming it would go up and it has.  I would still make this a 25* play up to the key number of 51.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 7-0 to the OVER this season instead of 5-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their five OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers and 66 combined points with the Commanders to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 31.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 390.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 29.4 points per game, 32nd in total defense allowing 401.6 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, FS Thomas and SS Wilson which are five starters.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers to name a few.

This Denver defense is grossly overrated this season after playing an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season.  They have faced an easy slate this season as well already getting to face Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields and Jaxon Dart.  In their one game against a legit, healthy offense the Broncos found themselves in a 29-28 shootout with the Colts and allowed 473 total yards in the loss.  This Dallas offense is right in line with the Colts, and the Cowboys should have a lot of success against this Denver defense.

Bo Nix will be able to keep up in a shootout because he is going to have to.  He has proven he can when he needs to as he led them to a 33-32 comeback win over the Giants last week and 65 combined points.  He kept up with the Colts in a game that saw 57 combined points.  Sean Payton will be in his bag against this Cowboys defense, which is easily the worst he and Nix have been up against all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -6

Note: I released this play Sunday night with the anticipation Lamar Jackson would be back this week.  I'm usually good at knowing injury information before most and getting ahead of line moves as evidenced by the closing line value I have on my other NFL plays this week.  But I was off the mark on this one.  When Jackson was practicing Wednesday, Thursday and getting a full practice in Friday, the line went to Ravens -7 and was pushing -7.5.  But he has since been announced out as of Saturday, and the Ravens will turn to Tyler Huntley at QB.  No question it's a downgrade for the Ravens, but I would still play them as a 25* up to -2.5, and a 20* at anything worse if you are buying this play later on in the week.

The Ravens are primed for a big performance coming out of their bye week.  They have opened 1-5 this season against the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL.  They have faced the #1 schedule of opposing offenses and the #2 schedule of opposing defenses.  They have also faced the #1 toughest schedule of opposing QB's.  Couple that will all of the injuries they have suffered, and it's no wonder they have opened 1-5.

While Lamar Jackson will be out this week, reinforcements are on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised to still see them win by a TD or more with Tyler Huntley at QB.  Huntley knows this offense and was a huge reason the Ravens ran off a NFL record 24 straight preseason wins.  He has ample playmakers on offense to make this work.

But I'm most excited about this Baltimore defense, which has been without starters Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey at times this season.  Well, all of them are back coming out of the bye week, and this will be the most improved defense in the NFL moving forward.

This is the perfect storm of 'buying low' on the Ravens and 'selling high' on the Chicago Bears.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They won 25-24 on a blocked FG against the Raiders and a fumble on a simple handoff in a 25-24 win over the Commanders when they were just trying to run out the clock.  They took advantage of a Cowboys team at home that got decimated by injuries throughout the game, and they beat the lowly Saints at home.

I think it has been a lot more luck than actual good football from the Bears.  In fact, the Bears are +13 in turnovers in their last four games, forcing 15 and only committing 2!  That's unsustainable.  While the Bears are due some negative turnover regression, the Ravens are due some positive turnover regression.  Baltimore is -7 in turnover differential this season, committing 10 and forcing only 3.

The Bears will be without three starters in their secondary in CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Tyrique Stevenson and NB Kyler Gordon.  They will also be without TE Cole Kmet and LT Braxton Jones, while RB D'Andre Swift is questionable for this one.  The Bears are actually much worse off than the Ravens on the injury front right now.

The Bears rank dead last (32nd) in allowing 6.4 yards per play on defense.  They have just gotten away with it due to good turnover luck.  I wouldn't be surprised to still see the Ravens win and cover the original line of -6 that I got early in the week.  I fully expect them to win this game Sunday even without Lamar.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

The Bengals sit at 3-4 on the season and very much alive in the AFC North.  They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers as well.  The Bengals will be max motivated here hosting the Jets with a chance to get back to .500 on the season.  And they host the Bears next week, so they know this is a very important stretch for them.

Joe Flacco has proven what he can do with the best set of weapons he's ever had in his career here in Cincinnati.  He came in midweek and found himself in a one-score game as 15-point road underdogs to the Packers late in the 4th quarter.  Then he came back on a short week on a Thursday night and led the Bengals to a 33-31 home win over said Steelers.

Flacco went 31-of-47 for 342 yards and 3 TD while leading the Bengals to 470 total yards against a very healthy, good Steelers defense.  He found Jamar Chase 16 times for 161 yards and Tee Higgins 6 times for 96 yards.  His success in the passing game finally opened things up for Chase Brown, who rushed for 108 yards on only 11 carries.

The Bengals beat the Steelers without their best defensive player in DE Trey Hendrickson (15 tackles, 3 sacks).  Well, Hendrickson is back this week now that he has the extra rest to recover after the Bengals played last Thursday.  The Bengals will be very fresh, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  They are primed for another big effort Sunday.

The Jets continue to get too much respect week in and week out despite being 0-7 this season.  Bettors continue to back them blindly thinking they will get their first win.  It didn't happen last week hosting the Panthers, and it's not going to happen this week back on the road against the Bengals either.

The Jets were a respectable team early in the season before the injuries started to pile up.  But they just can't compete in their current state.  The defense will be without CB Sauce Gardner for the first time this season.  They are without DE Jay Tufele and LB Cam Jones, and they could also be without LB Quincy Williams.

The injuries are worse on offense.  QB Tryod Taylor was expected to take over for the ineffective Justin Fields, but he's out this week so the Jets are stuck with Fields again.  And he has no chance considering the Jets are without their two best receivers in Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds.  It's embarrassing what they are sending out there at receiver this week.  Also, RB Breece Hall and TE Mason Taylor are both questionable.  They were already without Hall's backup in Braelon Allen, and they miss that 1-2 punch because the running game was the only thing they had going for them offensively this season.

Offense has been embarrassing for the Jets, indeed.  The Jets were held to 82 total yards by the Broncos two weeks ago in London.  They were held to 6 points and 220 total yards by the Panthers last week.  They just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Bengals, who are going to score plenty in this one to win by a TD or more and likely a blowout.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +7.5

I love NFL teams like the Carolina Panthers because you can keep making money on them week after week.  They were terrible last year, so bettors fail to adjust their power rating enough in the first half of the season.  But this Panthers team is one of the most improved in the NFL, and the odds just continue to fail to catch up to them.

The Panthers are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, including a 30-0 win over the Falcons that is as impressive as any win you will find all season.  Now the Panthers find themselves as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills this week, and I'm going to take advantage and back them again.

My favorite thing about the Panthers is that they are great in the trenches on both sides of the football.  They are 7th in total defense at 295.7 yards per game and 8th against the run allowing 92.6 rushing yards per game.  They are 3rd in rushing offense at 140.1 yards per game and 8th at 4.7 yards per carry.

The formula to beat the Bills is to run the football and stop the run.  Josh Allen can't do it on his own without a complimentary running game, and the biggest weakness of the Bills is their run defense, which ranks 31st in allowing 156.3 yards per game and 32nd in allowing 5.8 yards per carry this season.  That's really poor when you consider the Bills have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season.

The Panthers are as healthy as anyone in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success.  I know Bryce Young will miss this game, but Andy Dalton is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL and steps into a great situation here.  This line is being adjusted too much for the perceived drop off from Young to Dalton.

A big reason the Bills have been upset in consecutive games is because they just aren't healthy.  They lost 23-20 as 8-point home favorites to the Patriots and 24-14 as 4-point road favorites at Atlanta.  Their defense has suffered the biggest blows as they will be without DT DaQuan Jones, SS Taylor Rapp, SS Damar Hamlin, and they could be without both LB Matt Milano and LB Terrell Bernard.  No wonder they struggle so much against the run.  They are also going to be without WR Josh Palmer and they could be without TE Dalton Kincaid again.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and continue to be overvalued this week.  Home underdogs of 7 or more points in the first nine games of the season are 40-11-2 ATS since 2020.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* Dodgers/Blue Jays Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -130

The Dodgers were 9-1 in the playoffs coming into the World Series.  I think the long layoff hurt them as they had a week in between sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS and Game 1 of the World Series.  They have no shaken off their rust after an 11-4 loss in Game 1, and I fully expect them to bounce back in Game 2 tonight.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts this season, including 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 19 road starts.  Yamamoto is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three playoff starts.  He is coming off a complete game 3-hitter in a 5-1 win over the Brewers in his last start.

Kevin Gausman is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He is 12-12 with a 3.45 ERA in 35 starts this season, including 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA in 18 home starts.  Gausman has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers in Game 2 Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tennessee/Kentucky OVER 54

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six of the eight games.  It should have been 64 or more in all seven games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama last week in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 54 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas and 57 with Alabama in their five games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 44.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 511 yards per game and 19th at 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,948 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas and 37 points to Alabama in their last five games.

After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  He will have great success against this Tennessee defense that could be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (61 tackles), who is questionable.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +9

The Tennessee Vols have no business being 9-point road favorites over the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend.  The Vols just suffered their 2nd loss of the season 37-20 at Alabama last week, and that loss is likely going to eliminate them not only from SEC title contention, but also playoff contention and they know it.  I think they suffer a 'hangover' here from that defeat.

Kentucky is no pushover, especially at home.  After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  They held Texas to 179 total yards and outgained them by 216 yards in one of the most misleading finals of the season to easily cover as in a 16-13 loss as 12-point dogs

In their other SEC home game, Kentucky only lost 30-23 to Ole Miss as 8.5-point dogs.  This is actually a step down in competition for them as both Texas and Ole Miss are better than Tennessee, and we are getting them as similar 9-point dogs here.  The Wildcats should still be fresh after having a bye two weeks ago, and they will be highly motivated for their first SEC win of the season.

Tennessee has just one win by more than 10 points in its last six meetings with Kentucky.  In their only two road games this season, the Volts are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS with their only win coming in OT by 7 as 7.5-point favorites at Mississippi State.  They also had that 17-point loss at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs.  They may very well lose this game outright as well, but at the very least it should be a one-score game either way.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Hawks OVER 235.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Hawks lost 138-118 at home to the Raptors in their opener for 256 combined points.  They came back with a 111-107 win at Orlando for 218 combined points.  But both teams shot terrible from 3-point range in that game.  The Hawks shot 8-of-29 (28%) while the Magic shot 9-of-31 (29%) and it still got to 218 points.

The Thunder ranked 5th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating last season.  They will be a juggernaut again with basically everyone back.  They will be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe for this one, and Williams was one of their best defenders last year.  No question they will miss both on offense, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They will also be without Alex Caruso, who brings a lot more to the table defensively than he does on offense.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 243 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers OVER 233.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the show.  Well, he's healthy to start the season, and we saw how potent the Hornets can be offensively with a 136-117 win over the Nets in their opener for 253 combined points.  What's amazing about that is there were only 45 combined points in the 4th quarter due to the blowout nature of the game.

Ball had 20 points and 8 assists in 33 minutes.  Brandon Miller is back healthy this season and had 25 points.  Ryan Kalkbrenner had 10 points and 11 rebounds, MIies Bridges has 18 points and rookie Knueppel had 11.  In fact, the Hornets had nine different players score in double figures.  I love that Collin Sexton comes off the bench to run the 2nd team so there isn't a huge drop off from Ball to him.  The Hornets will play fast, and they will be an elite offensive team and terrible defensive team again this season.

The 76ers are coming off a 117-116 road win over the Celtics in their opener for 233 combined points.  That's a Celtics team that lacks a lot of firepower due to injuries and personnel losses, and one that managed just 95 points against the Knicks in their next game out.

Philadelphia has a healthy Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid to start the season.  Maxey had 40 points against the Celtics and is a sleeper to win MVP.  But the real story is the sleeper to win Rookie of the Year in Baylor's VJ Edgecombe, who had 34 points in the opener.  And that dynamic backcourt duo is a reason the 76ers are going to be an OVER team this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State NBC No-Brainer on Michigan State +14.5

Getting 14.5 points with Michigan State at home in this rivalry game with Michigan is a great value.  This line is way out of whack, and the Wolverines have no business being favored by double-digits, let alone by more than two TD's on the road here.

Michigan is getting too much credit for a 5-2 start this season with four of those wins coming at home.  Their lone road win was a toss-up game at Nebraska, 30-27.  They lost 24-13 at Oklahoma while getting outgained by 120 yards, and they lost their other road game 31-13 at USC while getting outgained by 173 yards.  This will be another tough road game for them.

Michigan State has hung tough against a brutal schedule after opening 3-0 this season.  They are 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They covered in a 14-point loss at USC as 18.5-point dogs, covered in a 11-point loss at Nebraska as 13-point dogs and covered at Indiana last week.

I was impressed with how well the offense played against that elite Indiana defense as the Spartans finished with 367 total yards and were only outgained by 97 yards by the Hoosiers.  That was by far the toughest game either of these two teams have faced this season.  The Spartans also played USC tougher than Michigan did on the road for a common opponent.

Aidan Chiles went 27-of-33 for 243 yards and a TD without a turnover against that vaunted Indiana defense on the road last week.  He has two big-time playmakers in Nicholas Marsh (36 receptions 404 yards, 5 TD) and Omari Kelly (27, 406, 1 TD) on the outside, and I expect them to make enough plays to keep this thing close.

Michigan State has a strong run defense, and the key to stopping Michigan's offense is to stop the running game.  The Spartans are equipped to do that allowing 131.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season despite the brutal schedule to this point.  Michigan star RB Justice Haynes (705 yards, 8 TD, 7.4/carry) is questionable for this one after sitting out last game as well.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys hate the Colorado State Rams as this is a bitter rivalry.  The Cowboys are the better team in the better spot at home, and they will take no mercy on the Rams, who just fired head coach Jay Norvell in the midst of another disastrous season.

Colorado State is 2-5 this season and really could be 0-7.  They beat FCS Northern Colorado 21-17 as 35-point home favorites and needed the refs to hand it to them in the final seconds to get the game-winning score with 45 seconds remaining.  Their win over Fresno State was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They were +4 in turnovers and outgained by 135 yards by the Bulldogs.

The Rams have blowout losses to Washington by 17, Washington State by 17, SDSU by 21 and Hawaii by 12.  That home loss to Hawaii last week was the final nail in the coffin for Norvell as they were outgained by 174 yards by the Rainbow Warriors.  QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi hit the transfer portal after Norvell was let go, and more may follow.

Wyoming is trying to build something in the post-Greg Bohl era.  The Cowboys love second-year head coach Jay Sawvell, and they are playing hard and well for him.  This is a huge game for them to get back to .500 on the season with a pair of tough road games on deck at San Diego State and Fresno State.  I fully expect them to take advantage.

Looking at the numbers it's easy to see that Wyoming is the superior team.  The Cowboys are outgaining opponents by 17.2 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  The Rams are getting outgained by 79 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play, averaging just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.2 yards per play on defense.

Wyoming owns Colorado State, going 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  That includes a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Laramie.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Oklahoma State +38.5

Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season last week losing 26-22 at Arizona State.  I like fading teams the game after having their winning streak snapped because there tends to be a 'hangover' effect.  I don't expect we see the best effort from the Red Raiders this week, and they're going to need it to even come close to covering this ridiculous 38.5-point spread.

Texas Tech was outgained 394 to 276 by Arizona State, or by 118 total yards.  This Red Raiders offense just doesn't have as much juice without starting QB Behren Morton.  No question Will Hammond is one of the better backup QB's in the country, but it's still a drop off from Morton, who will be out this week.  Another big blow is the loss of DT Skyler Gill-Howard to a season-ending injury two games ago.  He was their best defensive linemen and best run stuffer.

I haven't had many breaks in college football this season, but one was cashing Cincinnati -21.5 last week against Oklahoma State.  The Bearcats closed as 24-point favorites, but they were not the right side even though they won 49-17 by 32 points.  The Cowboys were down 18 with 6 minutes left going into score, but threw a 100-yard INT return TD.  Cincinnati scored after a turnover again a few plays later, turning what was about to be an 11-point game into a 32-point blowout.

Cincinnati is a one-loss team and one of the best teams in the country, and Oklahoma State was only outgained by 50 yards by the Bearcats  I liked what I saw as the Cowboys are going to continue to fight for their interim head coach, and their offense looked as good as it has all season.  They rushed for 228 yards and Skyler Jackson completed 11-of-19 passes for 149 yards in the loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7.5

The Texas Longhorns have proven to be one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Arch Manning has been a bust, and this Texas offense just cannot be trusted.  That has played out in recent weeks once Texas stepped into SEC play.

The Longhorns lost 29-21 at Florida and were outgained by 116 yards by the Gators.  They took advantage of an Oklahoma team with a banged up QB and beat them 23-6, but it was a misleading final as they were +3 in turnovers and only outgained the Sooners by 44 yards.  And last week's 16-13 win as 12-point favorites at Kentucky was the most misleading of them all.  The Longhorns were outgained 395 to 179 by the Wildcats, or by 216 total yards.

Texas will be playing for a 4th consecutive week here against a tough SEC opponent, and I question how much the Longhorns have left in the tank.  Mississippi State is motivated for a win after losing three straight SEC games including two by one score.  The Bulldogs had a bye two weeks ago so they should be the much fresher team.

The Bulldogs returned from their bye last week and gave Florida all they could handle on the road, losing 23-21 as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Gators 468 to 452 for the game, and putting up 468 yards on that Florida defense is no joke.  That also gives them a common opponent to Texas, whose lone loss came 29-21 at Florida.

After two straight SEC road games, the Bulldogs return home where they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with their lone loss coming 41-34 (OT) to Tennessee as 7.5-point dogs.  Tennessee is better than Texas.  They also upset Arizona State 24-20 as 5.5-point dogs back when the Sun Devils were healthy.  The Cowboys will be ringing, and this will be a big home-field advantage for a rejuvenated Mississippi State fan base Saturday.

Texas is only averaging 274.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense in conference games this season.  This isn't the type of offense you want to be laying more than a score with on the road here.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Baylor/Cincinnati OVER 66.5

Baylor is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its seven games.  The Bears combined for 62 points with Auburn, 93 with SMU, 72 with Oklahoma State, 69 with Kansas State and 78 with TCU.  Auburn's offense has proven to be one of the worst in the country since then, and they allowed 38 points to the Tigers.  The Bears are 118th in scoring defense at 31.4 points pre game, 107th in total defense at 406.3 yards per game and 84th at 5.7 yards per play.

Baylor plays at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  The Bears are 26th in scoring at 36.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 486.1 yards per game and averaging 6.3 yards per play.  Sawyer Robertson is one of the best QB's in the nation, throwing for 2,376 yards and 21 touchdowns already.

Cincinnati is also a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 66 combined points with Oklahoma State, 68 with Iowa State, 71 with Kansas and 70 with Northwestern State in four of their last five games.

The Bearcats play at the 32nd-fastest tempo snapping it ever 24.6 seconds.  They rank 15th in scoring at 37.9 points per game, 29th in total offense at 446.4 yards pre game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play.  Brandan Sorsby has been awesome, throwing for 1,718 yards and 17 TD while also rushing for 340 yards and 6 scores.

This Cincinnati defense does leave a lot to be desired.  The Bearcats allowed 34 points and 597 yards to Kansas and 30 points and 465 yards to Iowa State in their two toughest Big 12 games thus far.  They are allowing 463 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their four conference games this season, and this Baylor offense will be the best outfit they have seen yet.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both elite offenses will have their way with these two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -2.5

This looks like the best spot I've seen for any college football team all season, which is why it has earned the coveted 25* GOTY label.  Iowa State is off two consecutive losses and off a bye week, so no question they will be pissed off and prepared to beat BYU.  They will also be a lot healthier as they get several key pieces back from injury that missed their losses to Colorado and Cincinnati, both on the road.

Now the Cyclones are back home where they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents 36.7 to 11.3 on average.  They beat Iowa at home and crushed Arizona by 25 at home.  That's the same Arizona team that BYU should have lost to a couple weeks ago, needing a score in the final seconds to force OT where they eventually won.

BYU is the most fraudulent team in the country.  The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS record would indicate.  They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT.  This is where their luck runs out.

BYU is the most tired team in the country.  The Cougars will be playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They are coming off two straight wars, winning at Arizona in OT two weeks ago and then beating Utah 24-21 at home last week.  If they could beat one team in the country, it would be Utah, so they are 'fat and happy' off their win against their biggest rivals.  This is where they come crashing down.

BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers.  The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards.  It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten.

The biggest weakness of the Cyclones is their pass defense, but that won't come into play here because BYU's biggest weakness is its pass offense.  The Cougars rank 96th in pass offense at 203.9 yards per game.  BYU QB Bear Bachmeir is a better runner than a thrower, so you can bet the Cyclones have game planned the last two weeks to stop him on the ground.

Iowa State is elite offensively with great balance averaging 163 rushing and 242 passing yards per game.  Rocco Becht is one of the best QB's in the Big 12 accounting for 16 touchdowns thus far.  This will be the best offense that BYU has faced all season outside perhaps Utah, which they allowed 470 yards to.  

This is where BYU's unbeaten season comes to an end.  Undefeated teams that are 7-0 or better when listed as a road underdog against an unranked team like Iowa State are 6-24 SU & 9-21 ATS in their last 30 tries.  The Cyclones are favored for good reason.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +9.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes struggle to get margin against anyone right now with another terrible offense this season.  Asking this offense to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much, so we'll take the value with the Minnesota Golden Gophers as 9.5-point road roads in this huge rivalry this week.

PJ Fleck always has the Golden Gophers improving as the season goes on.  They are coming off consecutive home victories over Purdue by 7 and Nebraska by 18.  That performance against Nebraska was their best of the season as they outgained the Huskers 339 to 213, or by 226 total yards.  They finally got their ground game going with 186 rushing yards, and they were efficient in the passing game completing 16-of-20 (80%) of their attempts.  They also sacked Dylan Raiola 9 times!

Iowa is overvalued after beating Wisconsin 37-0 on the road and Penn State 25-24 at home.  Those two efforts took a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank in their 3rd consecutive massive game here against a rival.  This Iowa passing game is averaging just 131.4 yards per game and 5.5 per attempt and they won't be able to capitalize on Minnesota's pass defense.

I love the matchup for the Gophers, who are great against the run allowing just 98.9 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry on the season.  They should be able to shut down this Iowa rushing attack, and I just see this game going down to the wire.

Minnesota has actually played Iowa tougher on the road in recent years than they have at home.  Indeed, the Gophers haven't lost by more than 7 points in any of their last five trips to Iowa City.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -10.5

After taking Marshall to the Sun Belt Championship last season, Charlie Huff brought a ton of players with him and is trying to do the same thing at Southern Miss.  So far so good as the Eagles are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS this season with their only losses coming to LA Tech on the road and Mississippi State at home.

The Eagles have been putting up impressive numbers this season putting up 30.7 points per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense, while allowing 25.1 points per game and 5.2 per play on defense.  Former Marshall QB Braylon Braxton is one of the best in the conference, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,710 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 195 yards and a score.

Louisiana-Monroe has been dreadful despite facing a very soft schedule.  The last three games were terrible as the Warhawks lost 42-7 at Northwestern, 23-8 at Coastal Carolina and 37-14 at home to Troy.  They will suffer a 4th consecutive blowout here this weekend.

ULM is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Warhawks will be playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They will be doing so without QB Aidan Armenta (910 yards, 8 TD), WR Jacob Godfrey (12 receptions, 169 yards, 2 TD) and without a kicker.  They also have leading rusher Bralon McReynolds (445 yards, 6.2/carry, 2 TD) listed as questionable, while Southern Miss is fully healthy.

ULM has no passing game, so stopping the run will be key, making this a great matchup for Southern Miss.  The Eagles are only allowing 3.8 yards per carry this season, holding opponents 0.9 yards per carry below their season averages.  I also love the fact that the Eagles have a bye on deck next week so they will be fully focused for this one.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Missouri/Vanderbilt ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 52.5

Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  The Commodores play slow, and while they do so efficiently on offense, possessions are limited in their games.  And with the caliber of these two SEC defenses, this total of 52.5 is too high Saturday.

Vanderbilt only allows 20.0 points per game, 315 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Missouri has been even better defensively, allowing 16.7 points per game, 242.9 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  Neither offense will get anything easy in this one.

I actually think these are two of the best defenses these offenses will have faced all season.  Missouri and its opponents haven't combined for more than 51 points in any of its last four games.  Vanderbilt has played much more lower-scoring games in SEC play combining for 38 with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 55 with LSU, which was pretty fluky last week as both offenses just kept capitalizing on all of their opportunities.  There will be more stops in this one.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between Vanderbilt and Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Navy OVER 62.5

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team thanks to ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  They also rank 5th in pass rate throwing the ball 61.2% of the time.  That means a lot of clock stoppages with them as well.

The OVER is 4-2 in FAU's last six games overall with 61 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The only one that finished under that was against a dead nuts under team in Rice that plays slow, runs the ball almost every down, and has a terrible offense.  The Owls went for 66 or more combined points with their opponents in four of their last six games.

Navy is also a dead nuts OVER team due to having the best offense and arguably the best QB in program history.  Navy ranks 22nd in scoring at 36.5 points per game, 15th in total offense at 472.7 yards per game and 4th at 7.6 yards per play.  Blake Horvath is completing 65% of his passes for 980 yards and 7 TD while averaging 12.3 yards per attempt, and he has also rushed for 640 yards and 8 scores on 6.5/carry.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  FAU ranks 128th in scoring defense allowing 35.4 points per game and 95th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  They cannot stop the run allowing 177.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, which is bad news for them against a triple-option offense like Navy that is going to move the football on the ground at will and continue piling on the points.

But Navy's biggest weakness is a pass defense that ranks 91st allowing 235.8 yards per game and 117th allowing 8.1 yards per attempt.  What makes those numbers so bad is that the Midshipmen haven't seen that many good passing offenses, and certainly not one as good as this FAU offense.  The Owls rank 4th averaging 318 passing yards per game.  Caden Veltkamp is completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,029 yards and 15 TD on the season.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.  Navy is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall finishing with 62 or more combined points in four of its last five.  This total of 62.5 is too short considering both offenses should score at will on both defenses for four quarters in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/New Mexico OVER 61

Utah State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Aggies have a great offense but a terrible defense, and they rank 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  They rank 41st in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game, 44th at 428.4 yards per game and 27th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Aggies are 119th in scoring defense at 31.6 points per game, 127th in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 109th at 6.0 yards per play.

Utah State is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall finishing with 66 combined points with Texas A&M, 79 with Air Force, 90 with Vanderbilt and 70 with Hawaii.  They went for 55 with McNeese State and 55 with San Jose State, but it took miracles to keep that game under the total.  SJSU and Utah State combined for 995 total yards in that game but both teams left a lot of points on the board.

New Mexico is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall combining for 58 points with New Mexico State, 63 with San Jose State and 66 with Boise State.  The only game that stayed under came against a dead nuts under team in Nevada that plays slow and has one of the worst offenses in the country.

The Lobos allowed 35 points and 491 total yards to San Jose State and 41 points to Boise State, which are two offenses similar to that of Utah State.  They will allow a big number again here, but I think they'll be able to keep up in a shootout as I love both quarterbacks in this matchup.

Bryson Barnes is completing 65.1% of his passes for 1,644 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 363 yards and 7 TD for the Aggies.  Jack Layne is completing 66.3% of his passes for 1,415 yards and 8 TD while also rushing for two scores for the Lobos.  Layne and this pass-happy New Mexico offense should shred a Utah State defense that allows 269 passing yards per game.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  That includes 95 and 85 combined points in their last two meetings, respectively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +3.5

I love the spot for Wake Forest this week.  The Demon Deacons have a first-year head coach in Jake Dickert, who is working his magic already after doing the same thing in his time at Washington State.  Teams with first-year head coaches always benefit more from bye weeks than other teams, and that's the case for the Demon Deacons this week.

Wake Forest is 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  And their last game they won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.

SMU is one of the most overrated teams in the country after making the 12-team playoff last year.  The Mustangs have benefited from getting to face two backup QB's in their last three games due to injury.  They took advantage and beat Syracuse 31-18 as 17.5-point home favorites and Clemson 35-24 as 3.5-point road dogs.  In between they had a very misleading 34-10 home win against Stanford when the Cardinal were going into the end zone to make it a 7-point game in the final 6 minutes but handed the Mustangs a 96-yard INT return TD.

SMU was outgained by Syracuse and its backup QB at home.  SMU only outgained Stanford by 16 yards.  The game prior to these three, SMU lost 35-24 at TCU while getting outgained 519 to 384, or by 135 total yards.  SMU is actually getting outgained on the season despite being 5-2!

Wake Forest has elite numbers and is the better team in my opinion.  The Demon Deacons rank 32nd in the country averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and 8th in the country allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.2 yards per play, which is the 7th-best mark in the country.  

SMU is coming off the big revenge win over Clemson after losing to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game last season.  And guess who SMU has on deck next week? Miami.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for the Mustangs.  We are getting the better team in the Demon Deacons at home in the much more favorable spot as 3.5-point underdogs.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 54.5

Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in all seven games.  This total of 54.5 is very high for a game involving the Sooners, and we'll take advantage.

The Sooners have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in total defense at 213 yards per game, 2nd at 3.7 yards per play and 2nd at 9.4 points per game allowed.  They will be able to shut down this Ole Miss offense, which hasn't seen many defenses of this caliber this season.

Ole Miss allows 22.6 points per game and will be able to hold this lackluster Oklahoma offense in check.  John Mateer is playing through a hand injury, and this offense has been held to 26 points by South Carolina, 6 points by Texas and 24 points by Auburn in its last three SEC games.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 54.5 ticket, too.  There is an 80% chance of rain Saturday in Norman with double-digit winds expected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Purdue OVER 58.5

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 63.6 points per game in those 15 games.  This total of 58.5 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 28 points in nine of their last 11 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon last week.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over two weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own last week putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 31.6 points per game, 437.4 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.8 yards per play, which ranks 136th in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 32.0 points per game, 409.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play this season.

Purdue has a poor defense allowing 27.9 points per game, 373.4 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  But the Boilermakers average 393.9 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses with their last five games coming against Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Notre Dame and USC.  They finally get a reprieve here against Rutgers and should hang a big number this week.

I'm good with the OVER whether or not Purdue QB Ryan Browne returns from injury after getting knocked out of the Northwestern game last week.  HIs backup Malachi Singleton balled out, throwing for 187 yards on just 20 attempts while also rushing for 20 yards.  He brings more to the table as a dual-threat with 142 rushing yards on 25 carries averaging 5.7 per carry.  No matter who is under center, the Boilermakers will shred this dreadful, tired Rutgers defense.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio/Eastern Michigan OVER 59.5

Both Ohio and Eastern Michigan are dead nuts OVER teams with great offenses, terrible defenses and great QB play.  This looks like an absolute shootout with an Ohio team that just put up 52, 48 and 35 points in three of its last four games.

Ohio will do the heavy lifting against an Eastern Michigan defense that allows 33.5 points per game, 452.5 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.  The Eagles just allowed 44 points in a 44-30 loss to Miami Ohio last week, a dead nuts under team that plays slow.

But Eastern Michigan has scored at least 30 points in three of its last five games and can keep pace in a shootout.  QB Noah Kim is the most underrated QB in the MAC, completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,792 yards and 12 TD this season while also rushing for 4 scores.

Parker Navarro is the best QB in the MAC.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes for 1,471 yards and 9 TD, while also rushing for 441 yards and 4 TD.  He will have one of his best games of the season against this EMU defense, and Kim and company will have to run hurry up to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Old Dominion OVER 62

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in what should be a Sun Belt shootout Saturday between Appalachian State and Old Dominion.  Both teams like to play fast as the Mountaineers rank 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds, while the Monarchs rank 24th snapping it every 24.1 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and a ton of points.

Appalachian State is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall combining for 60 points with Southern Miss, 61 with Boise State, 61 with Georgia State and then 82 with Coastal Carolina last week.  Old Dominion is 4-1-1 OVER in its last six games overall combining for 90 points with James Madison and 72 with Marshall in its last two games coming in.

The Monarchs are scoring 33.1 points per game, averaging 459.6 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense.  That includes 40.7 points per game, 550.7 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play at home.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that you've never heard of in Colton Joseph, who has thrown for 1,690 yards and 16 TD while also rushing for 490 yards and 6 scores.

Appalachian State has thrived offensively since switching to JJ Kohl at QB.  He has thrown fro 841 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio since taking over for AJ Swann.  He led the Mountaineers to 37 points against Coastal Carolina and 41 points against Georgia State in his last two starts.  But this App State defense is terrible, allowing 45 points to Coastal Carolina, 47 to Boise State and 38 to Southern Miss recently.

Old Dominion's defense has been exposed the last two weeks allowing 63 points to James Madison and 48 to Marshall.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* USF/Memphis ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -4

South Florida is the best Group of 5 team in the country.  The Bulls are 6-1 this season with wins over Boise State and Florida.  Their lone loss came to Miami after beating Boise State and Florida the two previous weeks, so they had nothing left in the tank.

The Bulls have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with four blowout wins since, beating South Carolina State 63-14 as 36-point favorites, Charlotte 54-26 as 27.5-point favorites, North Texas 63-36 as 2.5-point road dogs and FAU 48-13 as 20.5-point home favorites.  Now they prove it once again against Memphis this week.

Memphis feasted on an easy schedule to a 6-0 start and then got upset by UAB 31-24 as 24-point favorites last week.  That was a UAB team with an interim head coach and a backup QB, so it was a terrible loss.  Memphis starting QB Brendon Lewis got injured in that game, and he's like 90% to miss this game which is why the line keeps moving toward USF.  It will move even higher once he's officially announced out.

The loss of Lewis is a big blow as he is one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He has completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,337 yards with a 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 435 yards and 7 TD.  Freshman backup QB AJ Hill went 13-of-25 for 175 yards with one TD and one INT in Lewis' absence last week against a pitiful UAB defense.  It's a big downgrade from Lewis to his backups.

Memphis has benefited from the 130th-ranked schedule in the country, while USF has played the 64th-ranked schedule.  Despite the much tougher schedule the Bulls have the better numbers.  They rank 7th in scoring offense at 41.7 points per game, 13th in total offense at 476 yards per game and 22nd at 6.7 yards per play.  They rank 37th allowing 5.0 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the most talented, deepest rosters in the NBA this season.  Back are James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Ivaca Zubac, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  They nabbed one of Utah's best players in John Collins, and they added Bradley Beal to make up for the loss of Norman Powell.  They also added Chris Paul and Brook Lopez.  They are easily going to be able to go 10-12 deep, and there isn't going to be much of a drop off when they turn to their bench.

In their last preseason game which they played their starters, the Clippers crushed the Kings 119-101 who were also playing their starters big minutes.  They actually led that game by 29 points entering the 4th quarter, which is a sign of things to come for this team this season as they are an absolute wagon.

But after a stunning 129-108 road loss as 9.5-point favorites at Utah in their opener, it's time to 'buy low' on the Clippers tonight.  This will be their home opener, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to make amends for that defeat.

The Suns are 'fat and happy' off a 120-116 home win over the lowly Kings who were without Domantas Sabonis.  This will be a big step up in class for them, and they are without Jalen Green, who they were going to rely on to be Devin Booker's sidekick this season.  The Suns are lacking offense this season.  Their starting 5 is Booker, Brooks, Ighodaro, Dunn and Allen and there's not a lot to like off the bench, either.  I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive tonight.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* Boise State/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +21.5

The Nevada Wolf Pack always seem to play the Boise State Broncos tough even when they haven't been very good over the last couple seasons.  Sitting at 1-6 on the season, this is their 'National Championship Game' once again this season.  They will get up for it on a Friday night home game in what should be a great atmosphere with the MWC champs coming to town.

Nevada is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Boise State.  The Wolf Pack only lost by 7 as 22.5-point road dogs last year, pulled off the 41-31 upset as 6.5-point road dogs two years ago, and only lost by 4 as 14.5-point home dogs four games back.  In fact, 11 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 20 points or fewer, so getting 21.5 points with Nevada is a nice value.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wolf Pack, who are much better than their 1-6 record suggests.  They have three losses by 1, 3 and 3 points.  They were also down 8 against WKU kicking an onside kick that was returned for a TD in the final seconds for a misleading 15-point defeat.  So basically four of their six losses have been by one score, while the other two were against MWC contender SDSU and Penn State on the road.

Boise State is a very tired team right now playing for a 6th consecutive week on a short week to boot.  The Broncos are 'fat and happy' coming off their 56-31 home win over rival UNLV to hand the Rebels their first loss of the season.  They never take Nevada seriously, and they won't be taking them seriously in this one, either.

Boise State is just 1-2 SU on the road this season losing by 27 at South Florida and by 21 at Notre Dame, while also beating Air Force by just 12.  The Broncos have allowed at least 25 points in five of their seven games this season so they have a leaky defense.  And I like what I've seen from Nevada QB Carter Jones since taking over.

Jones went 23-of-29 passing for 202 yards against New Mexico in a tough 2-point road loss last week.  He went 11-of-15 for 121 yards and 2 TD in a tough 3-point loss at Fresno State three games ago.  Jones gives them their best chance to be competitive.  I also like taking this many points with a Nevada team that will slow it down and limit possessions, giving Boise State less of a chance to pull away.  The Wolf Pack rank 109th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.3 seconds.  Boise State is in no hurry either ranking 82nd in tempo.  Bet Nevada Friday.

15* Dodgers/Blue Jays Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Dodgers have the most potent offense in baseball and are capable of covering this total on their own.  They are scoring 5.06 runs per game on the season.  But the Blue Jays are also led by an offense that scores 5.02 runs per game this season, and they strike out less than any other team in baseball.  They will make these Dodgers pitchers work for everything they get.

No question Blake Snell has been dominant this postseason, but this is a long layoff for him as it will be his first start since October 13th.  He walks a lot of batters and always has a high pitch count early, and I think the Blue Jays' patience at the plate will pay off as they get into this dicey Dodgers bullpen early in this one.  The Dodgers' bullpen is their biggest weakness.

The Blue Jays just have a pitching weakness in general as their starters are poor, and their bullpen is unreliable.  That's why they are starting a rookie in Trey Yesavage, who has been rocked in the playoffs.  Yesavage has allowed 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mariners.  He won't go deep in this one, either, exposing this Toronto bullpen.  

The Dodgers and Blue Jays have combined for at least 9 runs in six of their last nine meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too short for Game 1 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Magic OVER 228.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Hawks lost 138-118 at home to the Raptors in their opener for 256 combined points.  This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Hawks this season.

The Magic have a reputation of being an under team which is keeping their totals lower than they should be early in the season.  But they added Desmond Bane to give them some much-needed offensive punch, and Jalen Suggs is healthy to start the season which is huge as he is the floor general for this team.

The Magic opened the season with a 125-121 home win over the Heat for 246 combined points.  That was a Heat team without leading scorer Tyler Herro due to injury as well.  Bane had 23 points in his debut, while Banchero and Franz Wagner each had 14.  Suggs has 14 on 6 of 7 shooting.  The Magic will hang a big number on the Hawks, and Atlanta will be able to keep pace in a shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are my favorite sleeper in the NBA this season.  They added Brandon Ingram and brought back their core of RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Grady Dick, Jamal Shead, Ochaei Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo.  The Raptors ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating after the All-Star Break last season while going 27-16 ATS over their final 43 games.  Ingram will add some offensive punch to this lineup.

So far so good as the Raptors went into Atlanta and beat a Hawks team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season.  They beat them thoroughly to boot, winning 138-118 as 5.5-point underdogs.  It was a balanced effort with seven players finishing in double figures scoring.  The Raptors remain undervalued as a PK at home against the Bucks tonight.

The Bucks are without Damian Lillard this season, and Kevin Porter Jr. was supposed to have a huge season in his place.  But Porter Jr. suffered an ankle injury in the opener and is now out for this game.  He had 10 points in just over 9 minutes before exiting, so it's a big blow to the Bucks with how much they were planning on relying on him to be Giannis' sidekick this season.

The Bucks were still able to win and cover in a 133-120 victory over the Wizards as 10-point favorites in the opener, but the Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  This will be a big step up in class for them against the Raptors tonight.  Barnes is one of the best defenders in the NBA and one of the few guys that can hold his own against Giannis.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* Vikings/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 44.5

The Chargers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  Injuries at RB have made them become even more pass-happy.  They are just putting the ball in Herbert's hands and saying go win it for us.  They have attempted 38 or more passes in four of their last five games and haven't rushed more than 28 times in any game this season.

The Chargers rank dead last in yards per play allowed in their last three games, giving up 6.7 yards per play to their opponents.  Their defense has taken a big step back this season which is a big reason Herbert has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts.  They allowed 27 points and 389 yards to the Commanders, 27 points and 341 yards to the Dolphins and 38 points and 401 yards to the Colts the last three weeks.

But Herbert is doing a good job of keeping up.  The Chargers had 29 points and 403 total yards on the Dolphins and 24 points and 445 total yards on the Colts.  Herbert threw 55 times for 420 yards and 3 TD against the Colts last week.  He has elite weapons on the outside with Allen, Johnson, McConkey and Gadsden, who had 7 receptions for 164 yards last week in a breakout.  RB Vidal is also great at catching the ball out of the backfield and will be the featured back moving forward.

Herbert should have plenty of chances to make big plays over the top of an aggressive Minnesota defense that gave up a ton of big plays to the Eagles last week.  That's an Eagles team that was one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL coming into that game.  Jalen Hurts went off for 19-of-23 passing for 326 yards and 3 TD, finding DeVonta Smith 9 times for 183 yards and AJ Brown 4 times for 121 yards in a 28-22 win over the Vikings.

Minnesota has been a dead nuts OVER team this season going 5-1 OVER in its six games finishing with 45 or more combined points four times.  A lot has been due to a leaky defense, but the offense has scored at least 21 points in five of its six games this season despite having JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz at QB.  It's another testament to head coach Kevin O'Connell, who always gets the most out of his QB's.

He is doing the same with Wentz, who threw for 313 yards against the Eagles, 236 against the Browns and 350 against the Steelers in his last three starts.  The Vikings have been extremely pass-happy as well as Wentz has averaged 40.7 attempts per game in his last three starts.  He has the best weapons he's ever had in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Nailor and Thielen.

Herbert has been doing this with a decimated offensive line.  But there's a chance he could get back one or both of his starting tacklers as both Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins returned to practice on a limited basis this week and will be questionable.  For the Vikings, there's a chance they get back RB Aaron Jones from injured reserve as he returned to practice this week, giving Wentz another weapon if he comes back.  Minnesota will be without LB Andrew Van Ginkel, one of their most important defenders.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder were already without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe when they were fortunate to escape with a 125-124 (2 OT) win over the Houston Rockets in their opener on Ring Night.  That was a special night for them, and this will be a letdown spot for them going on the road to face the team that they already beat in the NBA Finals.

This is a step up spot for the Pacers, who want revenge on the Thunder after losing in 7 games last year.  They don't have to wait long to get that revenge, and they will be fully focused and motivated to get it.  They are in the favorable spot here with the Thunder playing the 2nd game in 3 days off a double-OT thriller.

So the Thunder were already without Williams (21.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.6 SPG last season) and Joe (10.2 PPG LY), and then they lost Alex Caruso (7.1 PPG) to a concussion against the Rockets.  They also had both Lu Dort (10.1 PPG) and Cason Wallace (8.4 PPG) suffer injuries to the Rockets, and both are questionable.  So they could be without three starters and up to five key rotational players tonight.

That helps the Pacers make up for the loss of Tyrese Haliburton as they have been planning all preseason to play without him.  The Pacers were one of the deepest teams in the NBA last season which is a big reason they made the run they did to the NBA Finals.  The core is back with Nembhard, Mathurin, Nesmith and Siakam in the Starting 5 and I'm confident they can all take their games to the next level.  Isaiah Jackson is ready for the featured role at center, and they still have Ben Sheppard and Obi Toppin coming off the bench.  I expect a big effort from Indiana tonight.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Alabama/Georgia State OVER 55

The Georgia State Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Panthers and their opponents have combined for at least 58 points in five of their seven games this season.  They have allowed at least 38 points in five of their seven games.

The Panthers rank 136th in scoring defense allowing 41.1 points per game, 129th in total defense at 450.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.4 yards per play.  They are 131st against the run allowing 207.4 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.

South Alabama is one of the best rushing teams in the country ranking 30th at 198.6 yards per game on the ground.  The Jaguars are going to be able to run it at will on Georgia State and continue piling on the points s they capitalize time and time again in the red zone.  The Jaguars and their opponents have combined for at least 55 points in five of their seven games this season, so this total of 55 is pretty short for a game involving them as well.

This Georgia State passing attack has been much better since going to QB Cameron Brown.  He threw for 212 yards and 2 TD in a 41-20 loss to Appalachian State and he went 29-of-38 for 280 yards and a TD in a 41-24 loss to Georgia Southern.  He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio on the season while also rushing for 184 yards and 3 scores as a dual-threat.  I think Brown and company are capable of keeping up in a shootout in this one.  

South Alabama ranks 105th allowing 29.3 points per game, and 124th allowing 195.6 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The forecast looks great for a shootout tonight as well with temps in the 60's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Spurs/Mavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 225

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts UNDER team this season going with the rare 2-big lineup of Anthony Davis and Derek Lively II.  They will be without Kyrie Irving to start the season, so they are even more of an UNDER team until he returns.  But they should be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they will be playing slower with the 2-big lineup.

The San Antonio Spurs ranked 24th in pace in the preseason and won't be playing fast until De'Aaron Fox returns from injury.  He is a dead nuts OVER player as an elite scorer and terrible defender, so not having him on the court makes the Spurs an UNDER team.  Stephon Castle will have to run the offense until he returns.  Victor Wembanyama anchors what should be a pretty good San Antonio defense.

And that's another reason to like the UNDER because there may be no other team in the NBA that matches up as well with Wembanyama as the Mavericks, who can stick Lively II and Davis on him.  And vice versa, Wembanyama will make life tough on Davis when he is on him.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the most talented, deepest rosters in the NBA this season.  Back are James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Ivaca Zubac, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  They nabbed one of Utah's best players in John Collins, and they added Bradley Beal to make up for the loss of Norman Powell.  They also added Chris Paul and Brook Lopez.  They are easily going to be able to go 10-12 deep, and there isn't going to be much of a drop off when they turn to their bench.

In their last preseason game which they played their starters, the Clippers crushed the Kings 109-101 who were also playing their starters big minutes.  They actually led that game by 29 points entering the 4th quarter, which is a sign of things to come for this team this season as they are an absolute wagon.

The Utah Jazz are the consensus worst team in the NBA this season and it's really not even close.  They lost John Collins, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson in the offseason.  They are going to start rookie Ace Bailey, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler with Isaiah Collier and Georges Niang out to start the season.  Keyonte George will move in to the starting lineup, and the washed Jusuf Nurkic will be expected to back up Kessler.  This is just an awful lineup, and no question it's only a matter of time before they trade away Markkanen and he knows it.

The Jazz went 17-65 last season and won't be any better this season.  Fans won't be that excited to see them at home at any point this season, which will lessen their home-court advantage.  The Clippers went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Jazz last season with three wins coming by 11, 37 and 20 points.  They are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings with five of the wins coming by 11 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.  

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +6

The Toronto Raptors are my favorite sleeper in the NBA this season.  They added Brandon Ingram and brought back their core of RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Grady Dick, Jamal Shead, Ochaei Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo.  The Raptors ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating after the All-Star Break last season while going 27-16 ATS over their final 43 games.  Ingram will add some offensive punch to this lineup.

The Atlanta Hawks have some flashy pieces on offense, but they will once again be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They can't be trusted as favorites with such a terrible defense.  They went 10-18 ATS as favorites last season, including 6-12 ATS as home favorites, and 1-9 ATS as home favorites of 6 points or less.  They are now 23-45 ATS as favorites over the last two seasons.  

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawks.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is actually 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Toronto went 4-2 in the preseason with their two losses coming by 4 points to the Nuggets and by 2 points to the Celtics. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks OVER 234.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Raptors get Brandon Ingram into the lineup this season and he will give them a huge boost offensively.  I love the guard duo of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, plus Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are back in the frontcourt.  Grady Dick adds instant shooting and offense of the bench.  The Raptors ranked 9th in pace in the preseason and want to play fast, too.

The Raptors and Hawks have combined for at least 243 points in four of their last five meetings.  The Hawks are 50-31 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 225.5

JJ Redick has been preaching all offseason about wanting to play with more pace this season.  That's why Luka Doncic got into some of the best shape of his life, and the Lakers are going to be playing with more pace this season.  I don't think this total has been adjusted up enough to account for it.

The Lakers are going to be a juggernaut on offense this season even without LeBron James until he returns.  Doncic and Reaves are two of the better guards in the league, and the additions of C Deandre Ayton and SF Jake LaRavia will add to the offense.  The problem for the Lakers is that they will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Lakers ranked 24th in defensive rating in the preseason.

The Warriors should be a very efficient team offensively this season, and they played at the 5th-fastest pace in the preseason.  They added Al Horford who will help stretch the floor.  They will be without Moses Moody to start the season, losing a key defender.  Replacing him will be a combo of Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield, who are two great players on offense but certainly minus defenders.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Warriors finishing with 226 or more combined points in all six meetings.  In fact, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with 226 or more combined points in nine of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA Season Opener on OVER 227.5

Two teams that want to play with tempo square off in the opener between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'm fully expecting a high-scoring game Tuesday night in what should sail OVER this 227.5-point total.

The Rockets are having to adjust without Fred VanVleet, who suffered a season-ending injury in the offseason.  That means a lot more minutes for Reed Shepard and Aaron Holiday, who are two players who add a lot on offense and are terrible defenders, certainly not nearly the defender that VanVleet was.  They added Kevin Durant so they should be a juggernaut offensively this season, but he's also a minus defender.  They lost Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks in the offseason, and those were two great defenders as well.  They tried to replace them with another great defender in Dorian-Finney Smith, but he's out to start the season.

The Rockets ranked 6th in pace in the preseason.  They went 4-0 and it was led by an offense that ranked 1st in efficiency with a 123.2 rating.  They ranked 25th in the preseason in defensive rating at 113.6.  All four games sailed OVER the total combining for 248, 258, 267 and 235 points with their four opponents.

The Thunder ranked 5th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating last season.  They will be a juggernaut again with basically everyone back.  They will be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe for this one, and Williams was one of their best defenders last year.  No question they will miss both on offense, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Thunder with 233 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  The only game that stayed under was in the NBA Cup Semifinals where both teams were playing with max effort defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International +3

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  But all four of those games were at home against some suspect competition in FCS Merrimack, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee and a LA Tech team that lost its starting QB to injury early.  This will be Kennesaw State's first road game since losing 56-9 at Indiana on September 6th.

The FIU Panthers held a players-only meeting prior to last week, and it paid huge dividends in a 25-6 upset win at 10-point dogs at Western Kentucky.  Sitting at 1-1 in the conference and trailing 2-0 Kennesaw State, this is a must-win game for them as they return home this week.  This is 'Vice Night' in Miami and it will be a great home atmosphere for the Panthers as fans show out for this annual event.

There's nothing to like about this Kennesaw State offense.  The Owls rank 110th in scoring at 22.0 points per game, 89th at 363 yards per game and 79th at 5.6 yards per play.  This despite facing a very easy schedule to this point.  FIU held a high-powered WKU offense to just 6 points last week and I think they will build off that performance by shutting down a much weaker Owls offense this week.

FIU has the better QB in Keyone Jenkins, and they also have the best player on the field in RB Kejon Owens, who has rushed for 658 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per carry this season.  Owens rushed for 195 yards and a score against WKU last week, and they will force feed him again.  They should have a lot of success on the ground against a Kennesaw State defense that ranks 94th in allowing 156.8 rushing yards per game.

The Panthers want revenge from a 27-26 loss to Kennesaw State as 9-point road favorites last season.  Jenkins threw for 204 yards and 3 TD on only 22 attempts, and the Panthers rushed for 196 yards in the loss.  Now they go from 9-point road favorites last season to 3-point home dogs in the rematch this season.  There's clearly value here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Florida International Tuesday.

20* Texans/Seahawks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +3.5

I love the spot for the Houston Texans this week.  They are coming off their bye week and they have found their groove after an 0-3 start to the season with three straight one-score losses where they breaks didn't go their way late in games.  They left no doubt in their last two games, crushing the Titans 26-0 at home and the Ravens 44-10 on the road.

I like the fact that CJ Stroud found his rhythm in those two games leading the Texans to 353 total yards against the Titans and then 417 against the Ravens while throwing 4 TD passes against Baltimore.  He is forming chemistry with several of his young talented receivers, and they should be even sharper on offense coming out of the bye week.

I also like the fact that the Texans have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Texans rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 265.8 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They will wreak havoc in the opposing backfield against Sam Darnold, and I love that the Texans have one of the best shutdown corners in the league in Derrick Stingley to match up against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is far and away Darnold's favorite target this season.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks.  They have alternated home and road games all season with a lot of travel involved.  Their trip to Jacksonville last week was as long as it gets, so they had to return home from that.  They have also played three straight one-score games that went down to the wire, so there have been no breaks for them.  And it's starting to show with the defense getting decimated by injuries.

CB Devon Witherspoon, FS Julian Love and CB Riq Woolen are all banged up with the first two questionable to make their returns this week.  LB Derick Hall is out and OT Josh Jones is questionable.  The Texans are the much healthier team coming into this one.

The Seahawks have huge home/road spits under Mike McDonald.  The Seahawks are actually 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in 11 road games under McDonald.  However, they are just 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS in their 12 home games under him.  That includes outright losses to the 49ers and Bucs already this season with their lone home win coming against the lowly Saints.

The Texans will have 15 days in between games, and teams on the road in this spot at 20-11 ATS since 2003.  I don't think there is much separating these teams, so if you're going to give me +3.5 in an evenly matched game on the team with the massive rest advantage, plus fading the team with zero home-field advantage, I'm going to take it.  Bet the Texans Monday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books continue to set the total in this series too short.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games with 13 combined runs in Game 2, 17 in Game 3, 10 in Game 4, 8 in Game 5 and 8 in Game 6.  The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of them, an 9 or more in nine of them.

Keep in mind these teams combined for only 8 runs in Game 6 only because they combined to strand bases loaded with less than two outs three times!  The Mariners and Blue Jays combined for 18 hits and 10 walks, so 28 base runners and only managed 8 runs.  There's so much room for more runs, which is why this 7.5 number is such a good value.

Like many of these Mariners starters, George Kirby has huge home/road splits.  Kirby is 5-4 with a 5.16 ERA in 11 road starts this season.  He is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three playoff starts.  Kirby allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings in a 13-4 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 3.  He is now 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings.

Shane Bieber has allowed at least 2 earned runs in four consecutive starts and a total of 5 homers in 20 innings in those four starts.  Both bullpens are shaky to say the least as these offenses continue having the advantage in the later innings.  Now that these hitters have seen these relievers multiple times, it's only an even bigger advantage for them tonight.  Bet the OVER in Game 7 Monday.

15* Bucs/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 52.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now with an elite offense and a banged up defense.  That's especially the case when they are playing at home in a dome as Jared Goff has always been better in his career with controlled conditions inside a dome.

The Lions are scoring 31.8 points per game overall and 43.0 points per game at home this season. They are fully healthy on offense, but that's not the case on defense.  Their secondary is absolutely decimated as they will be without three starters in CB Terrion Arnold, SS Brian Branch and FS Kerby Joseph.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddox is out as well.  DT DJ Reader and DT Alim McNeil are both questionable and they are the Lions' two best run-stuffers.

Baker Mayfield is the MVP of the league to this point and will take advantage of this depleted Detroit secondary by being able to keep up with Goff in a shootout.  Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points per game.  This despite numerous injuries to all of his biggest playmakers on offense throughout the season.  It doesn't matter who is in there, Mayfield is going to find a way to move the football and score points.

That's why I'm not too concerned the Bucs will for sure be without Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. tonight.  They've been without Irving and Godwin Jr. for the majority of the season anyway.  Mike Evans is supposed to make his return from injury this week, and Emeka Egbuka is at least questionable.  Either way, I trust the healthy receivers in Evans, Shepard, Johnson, Miller and TE Otton to make plays against this Detroit secondary.

This Tampa Bay defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 24th in the NFL allowing 25.2 points per game.  They allowed 27 points to the Jets, 31 to the Eagles, 35 to the Seahawks and 19 to the 49ers in their last four games coming in.  No question the Lions are going to get into the 30's with ease tonight, which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER 52.5 ticket because they aren't going to be able to stop the Bucs, either.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Bucs last four games overall with 56 or more combined points in three of those four games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Lions last five games overall with 61 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Falcons/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are just too decimated with injuries right now to be favored over the Atlanta Falcons.  Combine that with the fact that the Falcons are arguably the most underrated team in the NFL when you break down the numbers, and I'm on them this week.  I grabbed this +3.5 prior to their game with the Bills last week expecting them to win that game outright, so the +3.5 wouldn't be there.  I was correct in that assumption, so all my long-term clients should have a better number than this game will close.  If you get less than +3 then just bet the Falcons on the Money Line, and/or use the Falcons in teasers with the Patriots and Vikings.

This San Francisco defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  The 49ers have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

What gets slept on with the Falcons is just how improved their defense is this season.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense at 253.4 yards per game and 7th at 4.8 yards per play.  They did a great job of drafting pass rushers and they are making an immediate impact.  They held Josh Allen and the Bills to just 14 points last week on a fast track in Atlanta while sacking in four times.

The Falcons will make life tough on Mac Jones and this decimated 49ers offense as well.  Brock Purdy wasn't healthy enough to return this week, and they are still without Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling was just put on IR as well.

The Falcons are outgainng opponents by 125.4 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play on the season.  Those are elite numbers, making them one of the most underrated teams in the NFL when you compare how most books have them power rated.  They will continue to be a money maker moving forward, especially against a depleted 49ers team this week.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Falcons/49ers NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They continue to have a very good offense despite the injuries, but the defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  And now they are facing a Falcons team with an explosive offense and this has the makings of a shootout.

The 49ers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 47 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

Mac Jones will get the start again this week and he has proven to be great working under Kyle Shanahan.  Jones threw for 347 yards against the Bucs, 342 yards against the Rams, 284 yards against the Cardinals and 279 yards against the Saints in his four starts.  This despite being without all of his top weapons at receiver.  But reinforcements are on the way now with both TE George Kittle and WR JuJuan Jennings expected to return from injury this week.  And he has already formed a great rapport with Kendrick Bourne.  Jones is ready to try and keep up with the Falcons in a shootout, which he is going to have to do with the Falcons scoring at will in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books continue to set the total in this series too short.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four games with 13 combined runs in Game 2, 17 combined runs in Game 3, 10 combined runs in Game 4 and 8 in Game 5.  The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 8 or more combined runs in nine of them, an 9 or more combined runs in eight of them.

This will be a starting pitching rematch from Game 2 when the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 10-3.  Trey Yesavage allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings to take the loss, while Logan Gilbert only lasted 3 innings while giving up 3 runs.  Gilbert has huge home/road splits this season and in his career.  Gilbert is 4-4 with a 4.65 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

Both bullpens are shaky to say the least as these offenses continue having the advantage in the later innings.  Now that these hitters have seen these relievers multiple times, it's only an even bigger advantage as this series goes on.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 53.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 6-0 to the OVER this season instead of 4-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their four OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers and 57 combined points with the Panthers to sail OVER those totals.  Four of their six games were played outdoors on grass, and the two games inside AT&T Stadium in perfect conditions were the 77 points with the Giants and the 80 with the Packers.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 387.5 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin returning and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st allowing 30.7 points per game, 32nd allowing 411.7 total yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs and LB Overshown.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Washington offense is going to do to this Cowboys defense.  The Commanders rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game despite battling through injuries themselves.  But QB Jayden Daniels is back and healthy, and this offense should thrive moving forward as long as he is in the lineup.

This Washington defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Commanders rank 25th in total defense allowing 356.8 yards per game and 25th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They have played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses as well in the Giants, Raiders, Bears and a banged up Chargers offense.  Against the two best offenses they have faced, they allowed 34 points and 435 total yards to the Falcons and 27 points and 404 total yards to the Packers.  The Cowboys will hang a big number on them today in what will be a big-time shootout.  The OVER is 9-3 in Cowboys last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Chargers OVER 48

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  They have gone for 46 or more combined points with their opponents in five consecutive games, including 57 with the Broncos, 61 with the Titans and 58 with the Cardinals.  Those aren't exactly offensive juggernaut teams.

This Chargers offense may be the best offense the Colts have faced this season.  Justin Herbert has played at an MVP level despite injuries to the offensive line, which are getting better.  And now he gets WR Quentin Johnson (26 receptions, 377 yards, 4 TD) back this week after sitting out last week against the Dolphins, a 29-27 shootout win for the Chargers that saw 56 combined points.

No question the Colts have a potent offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor having great seasons to this point.  They rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.3 points per game and 2nd at 6.4 yards per play.  But the Colts have a clear weakness on the other side of the ball despite facing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They rank 19th in total defense at 329.2 yards per game and 16th at 5.6 yards per play.

The most glaring performance came last week when they allowed 25 first downs and 400 total yards to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals at home.  Brissett threw for 320 yards in the loss despite losing Marvin Harrison Jr. to injury early on.  The Colts were without their top three CB's in that game, and they will be without two of the three for this game with only Kenny Moore expected to return from an Achilles injury.  They will get torched again, and Jones will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +1.5

You're going to hear a lot about how Bryce Young hasn't won on the road in the NFL.  But he hasn't face a team as bad as the Jets, and he hasn't been at the helm of a Panthers team as talented and healthy as the one he will be in charge of Sunday.  This is where Young and the Panthers get that elusive road win this week.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming to the Patriots, who are as hot as they are right now.  They beat the Cowboys and Dolphins at home, and their 30-0 win over the Falcons may be the single most impressive win of the season when you look at what the Falcons have done outside of that game.

The Panthers are as healthy as they have been all season going into this week.  They get back RB Chuba Hubbard, who will form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with Rico Dowdle, who has totaled over 200 yards from scrimmage two consecutive weeks in Hubbard's absence.  The offensive line is playing great, and they could get back C Austin Corbett who returned to practice this week.  WR Jalen Coker is expected to make his season debut, and he was Young's favorite target last season.  Young has already formed great chemistry with WR McMillan, WR Legette and TE Sanders and this will prove to be one of the best offenses in the league moving forward.

The most underrated unit is this Panthers defense, which ranks 9th in the NFL allowing just 308.3 yards per game despite a very tough schedule of opposing offenses to this point.  This Jets offense will be far and away the worst unit they have faced thus far.  The Panthers are nearly fully healthy on defense and get back CB Jaycee Horn this week.  The Jets are a run-heavy team, and the Panthers have been great against the run the last two weeks.  They held Achane of the Dolphins to 16 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago, and last week they held Williams of the Cowboys to 29 yards on 13 carries.  Everyone is sleeping on this Panthers defense.

The Jets are 0-6 SU this season.  They are coming off one of the most misleading results of the season in a 13-11 loss to Denver in London.  The were held to just 82 total yards by the Broncos and outgained by 164 yards.  They had a fumble and a KO return that set them up for short fields, where their offense was stopped and they settled for two short FG's.  They also got a safety.  It was one of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen.

Now the Jets are going to be without their best weapon in WR Garrett Wilson, who suffered an oblique injury late in that loss to the Broncos.  Their offense is going to be even worse as Wilson was the only bright spot on this offense up to this point.  Justin Fields is going to be throwing to the likes of Josh Reynolds, Arian Smith, Allen Lazard and Isaiah Davis.  This is a bad, bad offense.

The defense hasn't been much better.  The Jets are 28th in total offense at 279.8 yards per game and 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Jets are 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  They allowed 34 points to the Steelers, 30 to the Bills, 29 to the Bucs, 27 to the Dolphins and 37 to the Cowboys.  That gives them a recent common opponent as the Jets lost 37-22 to the Cowboys two weeks ago at home, while the Panthers beat the Cowboys 30-27 at home last week.

This is a tough spot for the Jets as well returning home from London and having to deal with the jet lag.  They won't have any home-field advantage as fans are already fed up with this team.  And their two worse performances of the season came in their last two home games in a 20-point loss to the Bills and that 15-point loss to the Cowboys.  The Jets will not be getting their first win of the season this week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New England Patriots -6.5

Normally I wouldn't back a NFL team playing their third consecutive road game like the Patriots.  But this situation is not like most.  Mike Vrabel wants revenge on the franchise that fired him after their most successful stretch in franchise history.  The Titans have gone 4-19 SU & 4-19 ATS since Vrabel's departure, showing just how much he meant to this team.

Now the Titans fired Brian Callahan leading into this game, probably because they didn't want the embarrassment of having him as their head coach for another week.  But there will be zero dead cat bounce here as the Titans are just that bad.  They also lost one of the best offensive line coaches in NFL history as Bill Callahan left with Brian, and that's not good news for rookie Cam Ward moving forward.

Making matters worse for the Titans is that Ward's biggest playmaker on offensive in Calvin Ridley (16 receptions, 290 yards, 18.1 YPC) is going to be out for this game.  What is already the league's worst offense just got even worse without Ridley.  The Titans rank 31st in scoring offense at 13.8 points per game, 32nd in total offense at 232.3 yards per game and 32nd at 4.2 yards per play.

The Titans haven't even been competitive in their five losses this season, which have all come by 8 points or more.  They also should have never beaten the Cardinals as they would have been down 28-6 had Demarcado not dropped the ball going into the end zone celebrating a TD early.  So they really should be 0-6 with all six losses by 8 points or more.

The Patriots are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came to the Steelers where they committed five turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They outgained the Steelers by 166 yards.  They upset both Buffalo and Miami on the road during this stretch, crushed the Panthers by 29 at home, and won and covered at New Orleans.  This is really one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.

This team loves playing for Vrabel and you can see it in their post game celebrations and comments.  He is the ultimate players' coach, getting the most out of every player on the roster.  Drake Maye has made the Year 2 leap and is easily a top 10 QB in the NFL already.  He leads a Patriots offense that is 11th in scoring at 25.0 points per game and 7th in passing at 244.5 yards per game.  The defense is 8th in scoring at 20.0 points per game as this is another great bend but don't break Patriots defense.  They will easily shut down this Tennessee offense this week.

The Titans are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games and have zero home-field advantage.  They already lost by 14 to the Rams and by 21 to the Colts at home this season, and it's going to be another blowout loss for them this week against in inspired New England team playing for revenge for Vrabel.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Vikings +2.5

The Minnesota Vikings return from their bye week much healthier than they went into it.  They were without four starters on the offensive line in their 21-17 win over Cleveland in London.  Well, they could have all five healthy this week.  Green dot Blake Cashman makes his return on defense this week as well.  The Vikings are pretty much fully healthy coming into this game, and it's a big reason I'm on them.

But this is as much a fade of the Eagles as anything.  They were fortunate to open 4-0 this season with four one-score wins and some miracles along the way.  Their luck has run out the last two weeks, losing 21-17 at home to Denver before getting crushed 34-17 on the road by the Giants last week.  I think the Eagles are going through a Super Bowl hangover, and I question how much motivation they'll actually have to dig deep after winning it all last year.  That effort against the Giants last week following a loss to the Broncos says a lot.

The Eagles just aren't winning at the line of scrimmage this season, and I don't think it's fixable.  The Eagles rank 26th in rushing at 95.3 yards per game and 29th at 3.5 yards per carry, while ranking 26th against the run allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game and 24th at 4.7 yards per carry.  They have no passing game, either, ranking 28th in passing at 179.2 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 68.3 yards per game on the season.  This is just not a good team this year.

While the Eagles average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play, the Vikings average 5.8 yards per play on offense and only allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.7 yards per play.  They are 1.4 net yards per play better than the Eagles despite all their injuries and having Carson Wentz at QB.  

Wentz should be even more comfortable in his 3rd start of the season, and no question he will be motivated for revenge on his former team this week.  The Vikings have confidence in him now after leading a 4th quarter comeback in that 21-17 win over the Browns in London.  He hit Jordan Addison for a 12-yard TD with 25 seconds left.  Wentz finished 25-of-34 passing for 236 yards and that TD in the win against what is one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Browns.

Jalen Hurts really struggles against defenses like the one Brian Flores runs, which is a lot of zone blitzes.  The Vikings rank 5th in scoring defense at 19.4 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.8 yards per game.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Sunday, and it's a big reason I like the Vikings as home underdogs here.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs -11.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last three weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens three weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

Last week, the Chiefs kept it rolling with a 30-17 win over the Lions.  That was their 3rd consecutive game scoring 30-plus points.  Now even more reinforcements are on the way as WR Rashee Rice makes his much-anticipated return from a 6-game suspension.  He is probably their most talented receiver, and he will open things up even more for everyone else.  The Chiefs are going to be a wagon moving forward.

If the Chiefs put up 30 points for a 4th consecutive week, they will easily cover this 11.5-point spread against the Raiders.  I fully expect them to do both.  The Raiders are absolutely lost offensively ranking 30th scoring 17.2 points per game.  Geno Smith has regressed, and he just doesn't have weapons due to poor management and injuries.

The Raiders could not afford to lose Brock Bowers, but they are without him right now.  Thyey also could be without their top WR in Jakobi Meyers.  I mean Smith is throwing to guys like Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Justin Shorter and Dont'e Thornton Jr.  This is the worst receiver room in the NFL, and the Raiders just won't have what it takes to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.

The Raiders were crushed 41-24 by Marcus Mariota and the Commanders and 40-6 by Daniel Jones and the Colts in their last two road games.  That doesn't bode well for them to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this week.  The Chiefs also cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week after suffering three early season losses, so they will be motivated.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* Rams/Jaguars NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45

These are two of the better defenses in the NFL with the Jaguars ranking 8th in scoring defense at 20.0 points per game and the Rams 3rd at 18.3 points per game.  Both defenses should have their way with these two injury-plagued offenses in London Sunday morning.  That's especially the case with the forecast calling for a 100% chance of rain and double-digit winds.

The Rams have to be gutted to lose Puca Nacua to an ankle injury last week as he will miss this week as a result.  He has 54 receptions for 616 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for a score in only six games this season.  It's a big blow to the offense, which wasn't nearly as good last year when he was off the field.  Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams and the running game, which is also without his backup in Blake Corum and RT Rob Havenstein.

The Jaguars have faced two really good defenses this season and they were shut down in both games.  They were held to 17 points and 291 total yards by the Texans, and 12 points and 273 total yards by the Seahawks.  The Rams will have similar success in shutting them down, especially since they lost one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets in Brenton Strange to IR.

Both defenses are remarkably healthy right now and will win out in this defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday morning.

20* FSU/Stanford ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 52.5

Florida State is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Seminoles rank 5th in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 536.5  yards per game and 8th at 7.3 yards per play.  Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Seminoles have played three of the best defenses in the country already in Miami, Alabama and Pitt.  Gus Malzahn has made a big difference calling plays, and the Seminoles rank 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds.

The Seminoles are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season.  They went for 65 combined points with Pitt, 84 with Virginia, 76 with Kent State and 80 with East Texas A&M in four of their last five games.  Stanford is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall combining for 68 points with Virginia and 59 with San Jose State.

Thomas Castellanos has been better than advertised, throwing for 1,365 yards and 9 TD while also rushing for 286 yards and 4 scores.  He should have a huge game against a Stanford defense that ranks 107th in scoring allowing 30.2 points per game, 119th in total defense at 418.3 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.

Stanford's offense has been much better at home this season scoring 30 points on San Jose State and 30 on Boston College in its two home games.  They went for 399 total yards against BC and 481 against SJSU.  The Cardinal are a pass-happy offense because they cannot run the football.  They have thrown for an average of 336 passing yards per game in their last three games, and I love backing OVERS in games where at least one of the teams is pass-happy.  Simply put, this total of 52.5 is too low for a game involving Florida State right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati -21.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have quit on their season.  Several guys have already announced they are transferring out and there will be more each week.  They are without starting QB Zane Flores due to injury, and the WR room is banged up as well.  There's a big drop off from Flores to the backup, and I can't see the Cowboys putting up too many points this week.

The Cowboys are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FSC Tennessee-Martin in the opener.  They went on to lose 69-3 at Oregon, 19-12 as 10-point home favorites to Tulsa, 45-27 as 21-point home dogs to Baylor, 41-13 as 20.5-point road dogs at Arizona and 39-17 as 14.5-point home dogs to Houston.

Houston has a terrible offense, and Oklahoma State allowed 39 points and 485 total yards to the Cougars.  So you can just imagine what this high-powered Cincinnati offense is going to do to this defense.  The Bearcats rank 31st in scoring at 36.0 points per game and 2nd at 7.8 yards per play, which is the most important stat to determine how good a team is on either side of the ball.  The Cowboys rank 129th allowing 36.7 points per game, 135th allowing 475.8 yards per game and 131st at 6.7 yards per play.

Cincinnati has a solid defense ranking 34th in scoring allowing 19.2 points per game.  Their weakness if there is one is against the pass, but the Cowboys won't be able to exploit it with a backup QB.  They only have 2 passing TD's all season.  The Bearcats only allow 3.6 yards per carry against the run and will make life miserable on the Cowboys all game.  The books have failed to adjust for just how bad this Oklahoma State team is again this week.  There will be zero home-field advantage as fans are done with this team as well.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

15* Utah/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

BYU is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to facing the 66th-ranked schedule in the country and opening 6-0 against it.  They have padded their stats with home wins over WVU, Stanford and Portland State, and they got yet another miracle win last week over Arizona.  This is where their luck ends against the best team they have played by far this season in Utah.

BYU is a tired team playing for a 5th consecutive week and no must face a very physical team in Utah that will dominate them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  They needed double-OT to beat Arizona 33-27 on the road last week.  They recovered their own fumble that managed to bounce forward for a 1st down on the final drive that allowed them to send that game into OT.  It was extremely lucky.

Utah is a wagon this season.  The Utes are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and every bit as good as that record would indicate.  And despite that ATS record, they remain undervalued due to their 34-10 home loss to Texas Tech.  It was a misleading final and a lot closer than the score suggests as it was a 13-10 game with less than 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter before a confluence of events blew it wide open.  Texas Tech is a national title contender.

Utah just beat Arizona State 42-10 at home, beat West Virginia 48-14 on the road, bet Wyoming 31-6 on the road and crushed UCLA 43-10 on the road.  So they have played a road-heavy schedule, and three of their best performances of the season were on the road.  They will have plenty of fan support for this game being played in their home start of Utah in the Holy War.

Not only is Utah better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, but they have the much better QB as well.  Devon Dampier is a sleeper Heisman Trophy candidate, completing 71.5% of his passes for 1,131 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 378 yards and 5 scores.  Bear Bachmeir is a poor man's Dampier and much less elusive.  He is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1,220 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while rushing for 295 yards and 7 scores.  Keep in mind he has played the much softer schedule, too.

Utah ranks 16th scoring 39.5 points per game, 25th at 459.7 yards per game and 40th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Utes rank 11th in scoring defense allowing 13.8 points per game, 19th at 293.5 yards per game and 23rd at 4.7 yards per play.  They have elite numbers, outscoring opponents by 25.7 points per game, outgaining them by 166 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.

These teams have a common opponent in West Virginia.  Utah beat West Virginia 48-14 on the road, while BYU only beat West Virginia 38-24 at home.  I fully expect the Utes to win this game by a TD or more, so getting a -3 is a great value here.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Alabama ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six games.  This total of 58.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse and 65 with Arkansas in their four games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 1st in scoring offense at 48.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 527.8 yards per game and 15th at 7.1 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.8% of his passes for 1,680 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 117 yards and two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State and 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas in their last four games.

Alabama has had trouble running the football on offense, so they have been more pass-happy this year and that is the perfect formula to torch this soft Tennessee secondary.  QB Ty Simpson is among the Heisman Trophy favorites thriving in Kalen DeBoer's offense.  Simpson is completing 70.9% of his passes for 1,678 yards with a 16-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  

The Crimson Tide got good news on offense this week when RB Jamarion Miller and WR Ryan Williams were both upgraded to probable heading into this one.  After playing three of the best defenses in the SEC in Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri the last three weeks, I fully expect the Crimson Tide to have one of their best offensive outputs of the season this week taking a big step down in class here against this Vols defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.