20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Fordham -4

I believe I've found an absolute gem tonight in the Fordham Rams (9-18).  They take on the Duquesne Dukes (10-17) in what appears to be a meaningless game late in the season.  But I have no doubt the Rams will be the more motivated team, and they have clearly shown that here of late.

Fordham is 4-3 SU in its last seven games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games, yet it continues to get no respect from the books.  It has blowout home wins over Saint Louis (83-65), St. Joseph's (69-55) and LaSalle (63-48), while also beating George Mason (80-68) on the road for its four wins during this stretch.

The Rams have been just as impressive in the losses.  They only lost at UMass (74-82) as 9.5-point dogs, at Richmond (71-73) as 13.5-point dogs and at home against UMass (72-78) as 7-point dogs for their other three covers during this stretch.  Their only non-cover was a 57-76 loss at Davidson as 15.5-point dogs.  Well, Davidson is one of the best teams in the A-10.

Duquesne is one of the worst.  It is just 5-11 in conference play this season, and it has been blown out on the road time and time again.  In fact, the Dukes are 1-10 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.1 points per game.

The Dukes have lost each of their last 10 road games with the last nine coming by 8 points or more.  They lost at St. Bonaventure by 17, at LaSalle by 15, at UMass by 8, at Davidson by 26, at Richmond by 31, at George Washington by 15, at Saint Louis by 9, at Dayton by 26, and at Robert Morris by 16 in their last nine road games, respectively.

Home-court advantage has been pretty big in this series.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings.  This will be Senior Night for Fordham since it's the last home game of the season for the Rams, so that will add to the motivation for them tonight to get a win for their seniors.

Fordham is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Duquesne is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years.  The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Add to that that the Dukes have lost nine straight road games by 8 points or more, and we have a perfect 28-0 system backing the Rams tonight.  Take Fordham Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies (12-15) are way undervalued right now due to their losing record on the season.  Well, they have been playing their best basketball of the season coming into this one, and I look for that to continue tonight against Western Michigan (17-11).

The Huskies will be highly motivated for their seniors as this is Senior Night.  Well, three of the Huskies' top six scorers are seniors, so it will mean more to this team than most.  Anthony Johnson (10.8 ppg), Jordan Threloff (8.2 ppg) and Aaron Armstead (7.3 ppg) are all seniors.

Northern Illinois will also be motivated to avenge not only a narrow 65-69 road loss to Western Michigan on February 14th, but also several close losses in a row in this series.  The Huskies have lost 10 in a row to the Broncos, but the last three have all come by 5 points or less.  I look for them to put an end to this skid tonight.

Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It beat Ball State 75-63 as 5-point home favorites, only lost to WMU by 4 as 6-point road dogs, lost to CMU by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs, lost to EMU by 8 as 2-point home favorites, beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, and topped CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs in its last six games overall.  Toledo and CMU are two of the best teams in the MAC, so beating both of them is no small feat.

The Huskies are 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  NIU is 13-2 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 19-9 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons.  NIU is 19-6-4 ATS in its last 29 MAC games.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Hawks UNDER 199.5

The Houston Rockets are going to be lost offensively tonight.  They were already without second-leading scorer Dwight Howard (16.1 ppg), and now they'll be without MVP candidate James Harden (27.1 ppg, 6.9 apg), who has been suspended for one game for kicking Lebron James last time out.

This total has been inflated because the Rockets have played four straight games that saw 200 or more combined points.  Well, that game against Cleveland on Sunday was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation before going into OT.  There's no question the Rockets will suffer offensively without Harden tonight.

Atlanta has really been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  It has gone 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six games overall with combined scores of 177, 185, 183, 191, 183 and 184 points.  That's an average of 183.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total.

One of the biggest reasons for Atlanta's improvement this season has been its defense.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Well, Houston actually ranks ahead of the Hawks at 3rd in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.7 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is giving up just 91.0 points per game in its last six.

The Hawks and Rockets did combined for 201 points in their first meeting on December 20th, but Harden and Howard both played in that game.  They have combined for 163 and 197 points in their two previous meetings.  So, in their last three meetings, they're averaging a combined 187.0 points per game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ATLANTA) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 70-28 (71.4%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last five games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hawks last six games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.  This total has been inflated due to both teams frequently going over the total in recent games.  The value is clearly with the under in this one as a result.

The Kings have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, the Kings are now without two of their top three scorers in DeMarcus Cousins (23.7 ppg) and Darren Collison (16.1 ppg).  They won't be nearly as effective offensively without these guys.

New York has gone 3-0 to the over in its last three games overall.  Well, it is also without two starters in leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (24.2 ppg) and top assist man Jose Calderon (9.1 ppg, 4.7 apg).  The Knicks' roster is an embarrassment without these two.

The Kings and Knicks have played in some very low-scoring games in New York in recent meetings.  Not counting overtime, the Kings and Knicks have combined for 186, 201, 185 and 176 points in their last four meetings in New York.  That's an average of 187.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

New York ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  Sacramento is 20th at 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  New York also ranks 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home, so look for this one to be played at a snail's pace.

The Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER when playing with two days' rest over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 21-8 to the UNDER off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State -5

The Iowa State Cyclones are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight for a couple of different reasons.  I believe the extra effort they'll be laying on the line to get this win will be enough to cover this generous 5-point spread against Oklahoma.

Iowa State has blown late leads in back-to-back games to lose to Baylor and Kansas State.  It now returns home for Senior Night, which is another reason these players will be extra motivated.  Those two factors will be huge for the Cyclones.

Another is the fact that Iowa State wants revenge from its 83-94 road loss at Oklahoma in the first meeting of the season.  The home team has won six straight in this series with all six victories coming by 5 points or more.

The Cyclones have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They had their 21-game home winning streak snapped against Baylor in their last home game.  That loss dropped them to 14-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 16.5 points per game.

Iowa State is 14-2 ATS in March home games since 1997.  The Cyclones are 14-3 ATS in home games off a close loss by 3 points or less since 1997.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oklahoma is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Ames.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +5.5

The Golden State Warriors are coming off one of the biggest comebacks in the NBA this season.  Trailing by 26 points midway through the second quarter, the Warriors came all the way back to beat the Boston Celtics 106-101 on the road Sunday.

Not only will this now be the second of a back-to-back, but the Warriors will also be playing their 4th game in 5 days.  That is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They used a ton of energy coming back on Sunday and won't have much left to give tonight.

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are right in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff race at 24-33 and are obviously making a push to try and get into the postseason.

The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost at Memphis by 9 as 13-point dogs, beat the Lakers by 9 as 3-point road favorites, beat the Nuggets by 28 as 2-point road favorites, lost to New Orleans by 6 as 2.5-point road favorites, lost to Houston by 4 as 8-point road dogs, and beat Dallas by 10 as 8-point road dogs during this stretch.

The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now and continue to be tonight.  They are in the midst of a stretch where they have played 10 of their last 11 games on the road.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their nine road games during this span.

Brooklyn is 25-14 ATS revenging a road loss against an oponent over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 32-18 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last two years as well.  The Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +11.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were a money-making machine in the second half last year.  It has continued to be a money-making machine in the second half of 2014-15.  I'll ride this cash cow to another winner Sunday against the Indiana Pacers.

The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have beaten the likes of Detroit, Minnesota, Denver, Charlotte and Washington outright as underdogs during this stretch.  They have only been beaten by more than 11 points twice in their last 13 games overall.

Indiana is in a massive letdown spot tonight.  The Pacers are coming off one of their biggest winw of the season, a 93-86 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Well, Lebron James and Kyrie Irving both sat out that game to rest, so it wasn't as big of a win as originally thought.

The Pacers are 2-16 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 when playing NBA Atlantic division foes.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California -3

The Cal Golden Bears need a big finish to the season if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They'll likely need to win their final three games and their first game in the conference tournament to have any chance.  It starts today with a home win over Oregon State.

Cal is 16-12 on the season.  It has gone 10-7 at home this year.  It will be up against an Oregon State team that is 2-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in all road games in 2014-15.  The Beavers couldn't have been worse on the road this year.  They are 1-7 in Pac-12 road games with all seven losses coming by double-digits.

Cal has won each of its last four meetings with Oregon State.  The Beavers are 1-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  Cal if 14-3 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less after 15-plus games over the last 3 years.  Oregon State is 0-7 ATS in a road game when the total is 129.5 or less this season.  Bet Cal Sunday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -1.5

In the biggest game of the season in the Pac-12 to date, the Arizona Wildcats (25-3) travel to face the Utah Utes (22-5) Saturday night.  I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially considering the Utes will be out for revenge from their 51-69 loss at Arizona in their first meeting this season.

It's Senior Night in Utah, which will only add to its motivation in this one.  The Utes have been simply unbeatable at home.  They are a perfect 16-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 26.1 points per game in the process.

In fact, the Utes have won 15 of their 16 home games by double-digits with the only exception behind a 1-point win over Wichita State.  They have won all eight Pac-12 home games by 15 points or more with wins over USC (by 24), UCLA (by 32), Colorado (by 25), Washington State (by 22), Washington (by 21), Stanford (by 16), California (by 15) and Arizona State (by 42).

Utah is 11-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 11-1 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.  Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks (46-12) are proud owners of the best record best record in the Eastern Conference.  While they have slowed down a bit, they do come into this game on a three-game winning streak with an 11-point win at Milwaukee, a 17-point home win over Dallas and a 7-point home win over Orlando.

I haven't taken the Hawks in a long time because I believe they were overvalued after a fast start, but tonight I believe they are showing excellent value as only 5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat (25-32).  Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but this is a much tougher spot for Miami.

The Heat are already short-handed because their best player in Chris Bosh is out for the season.  Now, the Heat will not only be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as it gets in the NBA.  They won't have anything left in the tank off their deflating 102-104 loss at New Orleans last night, which was playing without three of its best players in Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson.

While this is a second of a back-to-back situation for Atlanta, it is actually just the 3rd game the Hawks will have played in the past six days.  They had two days off in between the Milwaukee and Dallas game.  So, they will be the much more rested team coming into this one.  Plus, the Hawks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons for their success this season.

Atlanta has owned Miami dating back to last year when the Heat had Lebron James.  The Hawks are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 7 and 13 points at home last year.  They won by 11 points at home and by 10 points on the road in their two meetings this season.  Both of those came when the Heat had a healthy Chris Bosh, too.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest.  Atlanta is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Hawks are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.   Miami is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Combine these two trends with the Hawks being 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and we have a 16-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +9.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks (13-14) have no business being 9.5-point favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-16) today.  I'll gladly side with the road underdogs in this one in a game they can clearly win outright.

The Gamecocks have been the single most overrated team in the SEC this season.  That's evident by their 4-11 SU & 2-13 ATS record in conference play this year.  Three of their four SEC wins came by 6 points or less, meaning they have only beating one SEC opponent by more than 9.5 points.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, has been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season.  It is 5-10 SU and 8-6 ATS in conference play.  In fact, it has gone 8-4-1 ATS in its last 13 SEC contests.  That includes outright road wins as underdogs against Auburn (78-71), Tennessee (71-66) and Missouri (77-74), as well as narrow road losses to Ole Miss (73-79) as 12.5-point dogs and 70-74 at Texas A&M as 10-point dogs.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (S CAROLINA) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 79-34 (69.9%) ATS since 1997.

South Carolina is 0-7 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Gamecocks are 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games since 1997.  The Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  South Carolina is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 SEC games.  These five trends combine for a 39-3 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +20

I have gone against Virginia each of its last five games.  Its best player in Justin Anderson has been out each of the last five games.  Anderson is the second-leading scorer on the team at 13.4 ppg.  He also shoots 48.0 percent from the field, 48.4 percent from 3-point range, and 80.6 percent from the free throw line.  Starting point guard London Perrantes is questionable to play today as well after missing the last game with a concussion.

The results of fading the Cavaliers in these five games have been great.  They are 1-4 ATS in those five contests.  They only beat NC State by 4 as 7-point road favorites, Wake Forest by 1 as 18-point home favorites, Pitt by 12 as 12.5-point home favorites, and FSU by 10 as 15-point home favorites.

The Cavaliers did cover their last game in a 70-34 blowout win at Wake Forest, but that result is what has them way overvalued here as 20-point favorites against VA Tech.  Also Virginia's 26-1 record and No. 2 ranking has it overvalued.  This team just isn't nearly as strong without Anderson and possibly Perrantes.

VA Tech took Duke to overtime in a 5-point loss as 165-point dogs last time out.  The Hokies have covered plenty of big numbers on the road this season, losing by 15 at Louisville as 22-point dogs, by 15 at UNC as 22-point dogs, by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs, and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs.  They also nearly upset Virginia at home on January 25th, losing 47-50 as 16.5-point dogs.  They will be out for revenge on the Cavalliers today, and they are fully capable of competing with them.

Plays on road teams road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two slow-down teams averaging 55 or fewer shots per game after 15+ games, after two straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 77-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

VA Tech is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound foes by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Bucks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 32-25.  The biggest reason for their improvement is their ability to lock down teams defensively.  In fact, the Bucks rank 2nd in the entire NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.7 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks will be worse offensively but better defensively going forward due to the trade they made before the deadline.  They traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got back Michael Carter-Williams from the 76ers.  Knight is a pure scorer who will be missed, but Carter-Williams is a better defense and known for his passing.

Knight scored 24 points in the first meeting with the Lakers this season, a 113-105 (OT) home victory on February 4th.  That game was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation for 188 combined points.  That total was set at 192, while this total has been set at 196, which is an obvious sign that there is some value in backing the UNDER in the rematch.

The Lakers are really banged up right now, obviously without leading scorer Kobe Bryant.  But their second-leading scorer is Nick Young (13.4 ppg), who is expected to miss tonight's game with an ankle injury.  Young is one of those guys that can bail out a team deep in the shotclock.  Without Young, this Lakers' offense will really struggle tonight against an elite defensive team in Milwaukee.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have seen 192 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Bucks last 28 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles dating back to 2008.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Bulls UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls are now without Derrick Rose once again due to a knee injury.  They have been UNDER machines here of late and will certainly continue to be now that they don't have their floor general.  They played in a ton of low-scoring games the last two years without Rose, and that will be the case again until he comes back.

The UNDER is 8-2 in Chicago's last 10 games overall.  It has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 101 or fewer points, including seven of those to under 100.  However, the offense has been held to an average of 86.5 points per game in its last two, and 91 or fewer in three of its past four.

Minnesota played in two shootouts against elite offensive teams in Houston and Phoenix in its first two games back from the All-Star Break.  However, it finally played a good defensive team in Washington last time out, and the result was a 97-77 victory for the Timberwolves for 174 combined points.  I look for this game to follow suit against another elite defensive team in Chicago.

Kevin Garnett was recently traded to Minnesota and made his Timberwolves' debut in that 97-77 win over Washington.  It's no coincidence that the Wolves played arguably their best defensive team of the season.  Garnett demands that his teammates play hard and smart on defense, and that will rub off on the rest of these players going forward.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams that get outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  These teams have combined for 189, 167, 195, 206, 194, 181, and 172 points in their last seven meetings in Chicago.  That's an average of 186.3 combined points per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The New York Knicks are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  They are without Carmelo Anthony for the rest of the season, and they were already a terrible offensive team with him, but they have been atrocious without him.

The Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Making matters worse is that they play at an extremely slow pace, ranking 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per contest.  They have scored 97 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games during a 1-9 stretch.

The Pistons have been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  They are averaging 98.4 points in their last five games, but their defense has been solid during this stretch, giving up just 92.8 points on 42.8% shooting in their last five.

What really stood out to me about this play is just how low-scoring this series has been.  In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Pistons and Knicks have combined for 193 or fewer points in all eight contests.  They have combined for 178, 193, 181, 174, 178, 164, 184 and 189 points in those eight games.  That's an average of 180.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. NBA Central opponents.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Knicks last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Pistons last five games overall.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Pistons last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 BAILOUT on Stanford -8

Stanford (17-9) is currently the first team on the "First Four Out" list that ESPN's Joe Lunardi puts out.  There's no question that teams follow his bracket predictions, and you can bet the Cardinal know that they need to impress down the stretch to get into the Big Dance.

Following back-to-back road losses to Utah and Colorado, the Cardinal responded with a 72-61 home win over California last time out.  They improved to 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Their only two home losses this season have come against the top two teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Utah.

Oregon State (17-10) stands little to no chance of making the big dance.  It is just 2-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in all road games this season, true and neutral.  It is getting outscored by an average of 8.7 points per game away from home as well.

The Beavers have really been poor on the road in conference play.  In fact, they are just 1-6 in Pac-12 road games with all six of those losses coming by double-digits.  They lost at Oregon 59-71, at Washington 43-56, at Arizona State 55-73, at Arizona 34-57, at UCLA 59-75, and at USC 55-68.

Oregon State is 2-9 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams with a +4 margin or better over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 4-12 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Stanford is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference opponent over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 13.1 points per game in this spot.  The Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Roll with Stanford Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +15

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now, while the Purdue Boilermakers could not possibly be more overvalued.  This has created the perfect storm and a golden opportunity to back the Scarlet Knights as massive 15-point road underdogs against the Boilermakers.

Purdue has gone 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The betting public has obviously taken notice and will be quick to back them again.  Rutgers, meanwhile, has lost 11 straight while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.

I look for the Scarlet Knights to actually be motivated in this game considering they want revenge from a 51-61 home loss to Purdue on January 12th exactly two weeks ago.  The revenge factor will help them get back up off the mat.  Purdue, meanwhile, is in a letdown spot off a big win at Indiana last time out, and with a game at Ohio State on deck.  The Boilermakers won't bring 100% focus to this game tonight.

Plays on an underdog (RUTGERS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that it's usually a wise move to back a team on an ATS cold streak against a team on an ATS hot streak. 

Plus, the Boilermakers aren't the type of team to blow out opponents on a regular basis.  In fact, only one of their 10 Big Ten wins has come by more than 12 points.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in road games off two straight games with 12 or less assists over the last two seasons.  Rutgers is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take Rutgers Thursday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing the best basketball in the NBA right now.  They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall, and it's no coincidence that this run has coincided with a healthy return of Lebron James.  Rarely will you get the chances to back the Cavs as this short of a favorite, and we'll take advantage Thursday.

Cleveland is not only winning, it is dominating.  In fact, all 17 of its wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or more, including 11 by double-digits.  This team should be a much heavier favorite at home tonight against the Warriors, who have come back down to reality following an epic start.

The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now.  They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at Atlanta by 8 as 2-point favorites, won at New York by 14 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Philadelphia by 5 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Minnesota by 3 as 9-point favorites, beat San Antonio by 11 as 7.5-point favorites, lost at Indiana by 6 as 4-point favorites, and won at Washington by 7 as 7-point favorites during their 1-5-1 ATS stretch.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Cavs are 9-1 ATS in thier last 10 home games.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Golden State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  These five trends combine for a 33-2 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -6.5

The Wyoming Cowboys (21-6) should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-15).  I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this generous price as I fully expect a double-digit victory in the Cowboys' favor.

Wyoming is 16-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Fresno State is just 3-12 SU & 2-10 ATS in all road games this season.  Those records alone should have you all over the Cowboys tonight, but there's an even better reason to like them.

There may not be one player more important to his team in the entire country than Larry Nance Jr.  The Cowboys' forward leads the team in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.2 rpg) by a wide margin while shooting 54.8% from the field and 78.7% from the line.

Nance Jr. has been out of the lineup the past four games with a small case of Mono, and it's no wonder they have struggled.  They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS without him.  They lost badly at Air Force by 23 and at San Diego State by 26 in their first two games without  him. 

They did beat San Jose State by 17 at home, but were 18.5-point favorites.  They also rallied from 14 down at half to beat Nevada by 6 on the road.  Getting that extra time without him should help these players, and now this will be an even more complete team when he returns.

Fresno State is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread this season.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Wyoming Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 192

The Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz will take part in a defensive battle tonight similar to their first and only meeting of the season.  The Jazz beat the Lakers 94-85 at home on January 16th for 179 combined points.

Utah has been an elite defensive team for quite some time now.  Even more so since they traded Enes Kanter to the Thunder and inserted Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  The Jazz have limited opponents to a league-low 93.4 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting while going 15-15 in their last 30 games overall.  

Utah is giving up 86.0 points per game in its last five.  It held Dallas to 87 points, Portland to 76 points, and San Antonio to 81 points in its last three games overall.  Those are three elite offensive teams, so it's not like the Jazz are limiting weak competition, either. Gobert is averaging 3.9 blocks shots in 10 starts and has held opponents to 37.7 percent shooting at the rim, the lowest mark in the league.

Utah is a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103-plus points per game this season.  We're seeing an average of 187.5 points per game in this spot.  The Jazz are 15-1 to the UNDER after having won two of their last three games this season.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in Lakers last 12 vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones (20-6) are a half-game out of first place behind the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 after back-to-back road wins at Oklahoma State and Texas.  They are obviously highly motivated to put and end to Kansas' run of 10 straight conference titles.

They will also be motivated to avenge a 73-74 loss at Baylor in their first meeting of the season back on January 14th.  They lost on a game-winning jumper by Kenny Chery with 4.7 seconds to go after taking the lead on a 3-pointer just seconds earlier.  They have not forgotten.

"A lot of people are not realizing how big that loss was, that hurt," guard Naz Long said. "That's definitely a game that we want to get back at home. We know we have to basically win out in order to win this league, and I feel like we're right there. So this is a huge game."

Iowa State has only lost at home twice since Fred Hoiberg arrived in Ames three years ago.  It has compiled a 61-4 home record since 2011-12, winning the last 21 by an average of 15.2 points.  The Cyclones are 14-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 18.3 points per game.

Iowa State is a perfect 12-0 at home against Baylor all-time in this series.  The Bears are 0-9 ATS in their last nine trips to Ames.  They have lost each of their last seven road meetings with the Cyclones by 8 points or more.  The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls have really been clamping down on the defensive end here of late.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall with the UNDER going 7-2 in those nine contests.  They have given up 90.1 points in their last seven contests.

The defense will continue to be one of the best in the league going forward, just as it is every year, but the offense received a serious blow when it was announced Derrick Rose suffered a torn meniscus and will miss significant time once again.  Now, you'll be seeing a lot more of kirk Hinrich at the point, which is bad news for the offense.

Both Charlotte and Chicago like to play at slow tempos.  Chicago will play at an even slower pace now without Rose.  The Hornets rank 23rd in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game, while the Bulls rank 19th at 95.7 possessions per game.  Charlotte ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions as well.

The Bulls and Hornets have combined for 185 or fewer points in 10 of their last 12 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings as well.  The Bulls are 15-4 to the UNDER in home games where the total is between 185 and 189.5 over the last two years. 

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games off a combined score of 175 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hornets' last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on 76ers/Bucks UNDER 188.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 31-25 on the season.  Their improvement is due to their defense more than anything.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 98.9 points per 100 possessions.

Their offense has been decent, but they took a big hit when they traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns.  They got back Michael Carter-Williams in return, and he is a solid player, but he's more known for his defense and passing than his scoring.  Carter-Williams will only make the Bucks a better defensive team, and he's expected to make his Milwaukee debut tonight.

The Philadelphia 76ers (12-44) are obviously atrocious.  They have actually played respectable defense this season, giving up 101.0 points per game.  But their offense only averages 90.4 points on 41.2% shooting, and 86.5 points on 39.8% shooting on the road.  The 76ers rank last in the NBA in offensive efficiency by far, averaging 92.1 points per 100 possessions.

These two teams have already met twice this season, and both were extremely low-scoring affairs.  Milwaukee won 97-77 on the road on January 7th for 174 combined points and 93-81 at home on October 31st for 174 combined points.  I look for this third meeting to follow suit.  Also, the UNDER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing a terrible team that wins 25% or less of its games this season.  Philadelphia is 11-0 to the UNDER after allowing 60 points or more in the first half of last game this season.  These two trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2

The Drake Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  But because they are 9-19 on the season, they aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers.  We'll take advantage and back them as small home favorites against Loyola-Chicago tonight.

The Bulldogs are a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The only three games where they didn't cover were on the road.  The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They beat Indiana State by 6 as 3-point dogs, lost to Illinois State by 8 as 9-point dogs, beat Evansville by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 2 as 1-point dogs, beat Bradley by 6 as 2-point favorites, and crushed Missouri State by 35 last time out as 3-point favorites.

Loyola-Chicago may be 16-12 on the season, but it did most of its damage in the first half.  It has been a completely different story in Missouri Valley play here of late.  Indeed, the Ramblers are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.  Their poor play is mostly due to their best lpayer being out. 

Leading scorer Milton Doyle (11.5 ppg) has missed the past 11 games with an injury, which coincides with their 3-8 run.  Doyle shoots 49.2% from the field and 46.0% from 3-point range, so not having him has been a huge blow to the offense.  The Ramblers haven't topped 65 points in any of their last 13 games.  They've been held to 60 or fewer in 10 of those as well.

Drake only lost 47-50 at Loyola-Chicago as 12-point underdogs in their first meeting back on January 14th.  That was the last game that Doyle played in where he got injured.  The Bulldogs only shot 38.3% while the Ramblers shot 51.2%, yet they only lost by 3.  Drake will be out for revenge at home this time around, and I look for it to get it considering both teams are going in opposite directions right now.

Drake is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Drake is 6-0 ATS in home games off a game where they covered the spread this season.  The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Add in that Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games overall, and we have a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Drake Wednesday.

20* College Hoops DOG OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +7.5

I have successfully faded Virginia in each of its last four games, and I'll do so again tonight.  It's no coincidence that this team is failing to meet expectations from oddsmakers considering it has been without its best player in Justin Anderson each of the past four contests.

Anderson was a preseason All-American candidate and for good reason.  He is second on the team in scoring at 13.4 points per game, and he shoots 48.0% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the line.  Starting point guard London Perrantes (4.4 assists/game) suffered a broken nose and a concussion in his last game and is questionable to play tonight as well.

Virginia is already overvalued due to its No. 2 ranking and 25-1 record on the season.  It is even more magnified without Anderson out.  Indeed, the Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won by 4 at NC State as 7-point favorites, by 1 at home against Wake Forest as 18-point favorites, by 12 at home against Pitt as 12.5-point favorites, and by 10 at home against FSU as 15-point favorites in their last four contests.

As you can see, Wake Forest played the Cavaliers tougher than anyone during this stretch, and as tough as anyone other than Duke, which is the only team to beat Virginia.  After losing 61-60 at Virginia as 18-point dogs on February 14th less than two weeks ago, the Demon Deacons know they can play with the Cavaliers, and they'll be out for revenge at home this time around.

Wake is 10-6 at home this season, winning each of its last three home games against VA Tech, NC State and Miami.  Virginia is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Demon Deacons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Wake Forest is 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Virginia, including 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings since 2005.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Texas A&M/Arkansas ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Texas A&M +7.5

The Texas A&M Aggies (19-7) are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  I look for them to give the Arkansas Razorbacks (22-5) a run for their money on the road tonight, likely pulling off the upset in the process.

The Aggies have gone 10-4 in SEC action to really put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  One of those four losses was an overtime loss to Kentucky, which proved what they were capable of.  They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 SEC games as they continue to be undervalued time and time again.

There's  no question that the Razorbacks are overvalued right now due to their six-game winning streak coming in.  Well, two of their last three wins have come by a combined 5 points over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and the other was a 15-point win against SEC bottom feeder Missouri as 17-point home favorites.

Texas A&M has some impressive road wins this season.  Indeed, it has gone on the road and beaten LSU 67-64 as 5-point dogs, Tennessee 67-61 as 3.5-point dogs, Auburn 71-61 as 2.5-point favorites, and South Carolina 62-52 as 3-point underdogs, among others.

The Razorbacks are in a massive letdown spot here.  Not only are they overvalued due to their six-game winning streak, but they also will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday.  I don't expect the Razorbacks to give the Aggies their full attention as a result, which will work in our favor here.

Texas A&M beat Arkansas 69-53 as 2-point home underdogs in their lone meeting last season.  It has four starters back from that team, which is the biggest reason it is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are once again lacking the respect they deserve as 7-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this one.

The Pistons have beaten the likes of Houston (114-101), Miami (108-91), Denver (98-88), Charlotte (106-78), Chicago (100-91) and Washington (106-89) during this stretch.  So, they are not only winning, they are dominating as all six of their victories have come by 9 points or more.  Five of the six came against playoff contenders, too.

Cleveland comes into this game overvalued due to having won 16 of its last 18 games overall.  The Cavaliers are scoring 106.6 points per game since Christmas, but the Pistons are scoring 106.5 points per game since Christmas, just a tick behind.  Detroit is only going to be better going forward as Reggie Jackson gets acclimated to the offense after being traded from Oklahoma City.

Detroit has played Cleveland very tough this season.  It beat the Cavaliers 103-80 on the road on January 28th in a game in which Lebron James did play in.  It only lost 95-103 as 8.5-point home dogs on January 27th, which was about the time it found out it would be without Brandon Jennings for the rest of the year due to injury.  Jackson will fill that all-important point guard spot very well going forward.

Plays on underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavs are in a lookahead spot here as they have a huge game against the Warriors on deck at home Thursday night.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  It is winning by an average of 14.7 points per game in this spot.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Jazz UNDER 188.5

The Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These teams just met on January 18th in their most recent meeting.  The Spurs won that game 89-69 at home for 158 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in this one that fails to even come close to this 188-point mark.

Utah has become a very good defensive team.  It got even better when it traded Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City, which meant that Rudy Gobert would get the start from year on out and more minutes.  Gobert is one of the best-kept secrets in the NBA.  He is averaging an NBA-leading 2.8 blocks since December 12, but he doesn't have much of an offensive game at all like Kanter does.

In their first two games since the trade and the All-Star Break, the Jazz have simply played suffocating defense.  They lost at Dallas 82-87 for 169 combined points, and beat Portland 92-76 at home for 168 combined points.  Gobert had five of the team's seven blocks in the win over the Blazers.

San Antonio will be highly motivated to play hard-nosed defense in this one after giving up 119 points to the Clippers and 110 points to the Warriors in back-to-back losses.  They had allowed an average of 88.0 points per game in their previous four contests against the Heat, Raptors and Pistons. 

After playing two of the better offenses in the NBA the last two games, the Spurs now go up against one of the worst.  The Jazz only score 95.7 points per game and are much worse off now without Kanter.  The Jazz also play at a very slow tempo, ranking 29th in the NBA in pace at 92.7 possessions per game.  The Spurs rank 21st in pace at 95.5 possessions.  San Antonio also scored just 97.6 points per game on the road this season compared to 104.3 at home.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more are 25-5 (83.3%) since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that good teams tend to bounce back defensively after a poor effort on defense in their previous game.

The Spurs are 9-1 to the UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Utah is 14-1 to the UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Spurs last eight after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Jazz last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 193.5

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA.  I look for them to take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in Chicago.

The biggest reason for the Bucks' turnaround this season has been their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Bulls rank 13th in allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got back Michael Carter-Williams as the starting point guard in return.  Well, Carter-Williams is hurt and doubtful to play tonight.  The Bucks have played in two low-scoring games since that trade.  The bet Denver 89-81 at home, and lost to Atlanta 86-97 at home.

This has been a very low-scoring series to say the least.  In fact, each of the last seven meetings between the Bucks and Bulls have seen 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 176.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 193.5.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER  is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 18-8 in Bucks last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last eight games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +15.5

I have successfully faded Virginia in three consecutive games.  They failed to cover in a 4-point win at NC State as 7-point favorites, in a 1-point home win over Wake Forest as 18-point favorites, and in a 12-point win over Pitt as 12-point favorites.  I'll fade them for a fourth straight games for essentially the same reasons.

Virginia is the No. 2 team in the country and 24-1 on the season.  It is overvalued due to that ranking and record, and the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for the injury to their best player, Justin Anderson.  He has missed the last three games with a hand injury, and it's no coincidence they failed to cover all three. 

Anderson is their second-leading scorer (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), and he shoots 48% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He is simply irreplaceable, and the Cavaliers have been lost offensively without him.  He is an All-American candidate and one of the most underrated players in the country.

Florida State (15-12) continues to lack the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as 15.5-point underdogs today.  All the Seminoles have done here of late is go 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their three losses have come by a combined 13 points in a 4-point loss at UNC as 14.5-point dogs, a 6-point home loss to Clemson as 2-point favorites in their lone non-cover, and a 3-point home loss to Duke as 10.5-point dogs.

The Seminoles have gone on the road and beaten Clemson by 4 as 4.5-point dogs, VA Tech by 8 as 1-point favorites, and Georgia Tech by 4 as 4.5-point dogs.  They have also beaten Wake Forest by 6 as 4.5-point favorites, Miami by 1 as 2-point dogs, and Boston College by 9 as 6-point favorites at home during this stretch.  In fact, the Seminoles haven't been beaten by more than 13 points in any of their last 18 games.

Virginia did win all three meetings with Florida State last year, but all three came by 13 points or less.  The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Virginia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game.  Bet Florida State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high on this total between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks today.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle Sunday afternoon.

Atlanta (43-12) and Milwaukee (31-23) are two of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  That improvement is more do to their efforts defensively than anything.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks rank 7th, allowing 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

Milwaukee just traded away leading scorer Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns prior to the deadline.  It got back Michael Carter-Williams to play the point in place of Knight.  Unfortunately for the Bucks, Carter-Williams has a foot injury and is expected to sit out today.  I look for them to be lost offensively without a starting point guard.

The Hawks and Bucks have squared off twice this season, and both games easily went UNDER the total.  They combined for 184 points in Atlanta on December 26th and 175 points in Milwaukee a day later on December 27th.  That's an average of 179.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than today's posted total of 196.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  Milwaukee is 21-7 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +10

The Sacramento Kings have new life coming out of the All-Star Break.  Legendary head coach George Karl takes over for the remainder of the season, and it was an excellent debut for the former Seattle Supersonics and Denver Nuggets coach.

The Kings erased a 16-point deficit and overcame 24 turnovers to beat the Boston Celtics 109-101 at home last night.  Under past coaches, this team would have folded with an effort like that, but they fought back for Karl.  I believe this will be a sign of things to come.

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game way overvalued due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were previously undervalued due to not having Blake Griffin, but after showing they could play well without him, they are now overvalued.  Teams can play well without their superstars for a few games, but over time it starts to catch up to them.

This is also a huge letdown spot for the Clippers.  They are coming off three straight wins against playoff contenders in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.  They have four straight games against playoff contenders coming up after this, including Monday's tilt with Memphis.  I look for them to take their foot off of the gas enough to fail to cover this massive 10-point spread tonight.

A big reason the Clippers have held their own without Griffin is DeAndre JOrdan.  He has totaled 72 points and 65 rebounds of his last three games.  Well, Sacramento is the best rebounding team in the NBA with a plus-4.5 mark.  Jordan has totaled 12 points and 18 rebounds as the teams have split their first two meetings this season. 

DeMarcus Cousins did not play in the Kings' 108-117 home loss to the Clippers in their last meeting.  He did play in their 98-92 upset win at L.A. in their first, and makes all the difference for this team.  Cousins had 31 points and 15 rebounds against the Celtics last night, while Rudy Gay scored 28.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS after a game where it gave up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the past three seasons.  Sacramento is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.  Six of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or less.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Bulls UNDER 204.5

The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns are both going to be giving a little extra on the defensive end of the court tonight.  They are both coming off bad losses in their first games back from the break.  The Suns lost 109-111 at Minnesota, while the Bulls lost 91-100 at Detroit.

Look for Chicago to be especially tough on the defensive end.  It has gone 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall, allowing 101 or fewer points in seven straight.  It has given up just 90.6 points per game in its last five games overall as it is getting back to a dominant defensive team.

Phoenix is not a very good defensive team, but it is capable of limiting the Bulls, who play at a very slow pace and will control the tempo playing at home.  A big reason I like this UNDER is because the Suns will be out of sync offensively.  They traded away Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, and now they'll be trying to work in Brandon Knight, Marcus Thornton and Danny Granger to the offense.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the recent head-to-head series.  The Suns and Bulls have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 192, 193, 179 and 178 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 185.5 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.

Phoenix is 11-1 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Suns last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Phoenix is 20-9 to the UNDER in road games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +15

The DePaul Blue Demons have been the single-most underrated team in all of the Big East this season in terms of the point spread. That's evidenced by the fact that they are a sensational 11-3 ATS in all Big East games.  They have gone 6-8 SU as well and are only getting outscored by 4.9 points per game in conference play.  They have only lost by more than 13 points twice in Big East action.

The Blue Demons are once again catching too many points here due to their last performance, coupled with Georgetown's last performance.  The betting public wants nothing to do with DePaul off their 27-point loss to Providence, while the public wants everything to do with Georgetown off its 22-point win over St. John's.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DEPAUL) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 111-66 (62.7%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that it's a very profitable move backing big underdogs off a huge ATS loss this time of year.

DePaul only lost by 6 to Georgetown as 7-point home underdogs, 72-78, on January 13th in the first meeting this season.  That places the Blue Demons in revenge mode, which I love.  DePaul has played Georgetown very tough on the road.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Washington DC.  The Blue Demons won 60-56 as 11-point dogs last season, only lost by 7 as 13-point dogs in 2013, lost by 11 as 22-point dogs in 2011, and lost by 8 as 17.5-point dogs in 2009.

The Blue Demons are 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  DePaul is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  These two trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the road team.  Also, the Blue Demons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +26

At 26-0 and with the No. 1 ranking in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are also coming off two straight blowout wins and covers over South Carolina and Tennessee, only adding to the betting public's love for them.

The Wildcats had failed to cover five straight prior to their last two.  They only beat Missouri by 16 as 17.5-point favorites, Alabama by 15 as 19-point favorites, Georgia by 11 as 18-point favorites, Florida by 7 as 8-point favorites, and LSU by 2 as 10-point favorites.

Auburn comes in undervalued after having going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  This team has been competitive despite its 12-13 record on the season.  It has even gone on the road and beaten LSU 81-77 as 10.5-point dogs and Georgia 69-68 as 11-point dogs in the month of February.  In fact, Auburn's last seven losses have all come by 14 points or less.  Its largest loss in SEC play was a 20-point loss at Florida.

The Tigers have played the Wildcats very tough in recent years.  They are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They haven't lost by more than 24 to Kentucky in any of the last eight meetings.  Five of their last eight losses to Kentucky have come by 10 points or less, including a 64-56 loss to the Wildcats last year.  The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Kentucky.

Auburn is 10-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games this season.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  They beat LSU and Georgia outright, while only losing to Alabama by 2 and Tennessee by 8.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Fordham +15

The Davidson Wildcats (18-6) have been going under the radar up to this point.  That's evident by the fact that they are 16-5 ATS in all lined games this season.  However, I believe the betting public has finally caught on, and now it's time to fade them while they're overvalued as 15-point home favorites over Fordham today.

Davidson is coming off a huge 65-63 road win over George Washington on Wednesday.  That fact alone sets it up for a letdown spot here.  It will have a hard time getting motivated to face an 8-16 Fordham team, especially with three straight games coming up against Atlantic 10 contenders Rhode Island, GW and VCU in its next three games.

Everyone has been sleeping on Fordham here of late.  The Rams have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost to UMass 72-78 as 7-point home dogs, beat St. Louis 83-65 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost to Richmond 71-73 as 13.5-point road dogs, beat St. Joseph's 69-55 as 2-point home dogs, and beat George Mason 80-68 as 5-point road dogs.  If that's not an impressive stretch, I don't know what is.  But, the oddsmakers still aren't giving them the respect they deserve with the 15-point spread they have set today.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (DAVIDSON) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against a home team (DAVIDSON) - a very good team (+8 PPG differential or better) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a close win by 3 points or less are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Fordham Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion -1

In one of the most anticipated games in Conference USA this season, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (21-6) travel to face the Old Dominion Monarchs (19-6) on Saturday.  I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially with the way the Monarchs have played at home this season.

Indeed, Old Dominion is a perfect 14-0 straight up at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. It has beaten the likes of Richmond, VCU, Georgia State and Charlotte at home this year, so it's not like the Monarchs are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes at home.

All six of Louisiana Tech's losses this season have come on the road.  It has lost to the likes of LA-Lafeyette, North Texas and UAB on the road this season.  It is coming off a hard-fought 83-82 road win at Charlotte on Thursday, making this a tough two-day turnaround. 

The Monarchs are coming off a 64-38 win over Southern Miss Thursday, which allowed them to preserve their starters.  The Monarchs will be the fresher team as a result, and they'll want this game more.  They only lost by 5 at home to LA Tech last year, and now they have four starters back from that team who will want revenge.

The Monarchs are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Old Dominion is 12-2 ATS versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  LA Tech is 1-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  Combine this 6-0 trend with the fact that they're 14-0 at home this season, and we have a 20-0 system backing the Monarchs.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green -1.5

The MAC is easily one of the most underrated conferences in the country.  Bowling Green (17-7), Kent State (18-8), Akron (17-9), Buffalo (16-9), Central Michigan (19-5) and Toledo (17-9) are all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams.  It's a shame that likely only one of these teams will make the big dance.

I've seen Bowling Green play a couple times this year and have been very impressed.  I believe it should be a much heavier home favorite today over Buffalo.  The Falcons are 10-3 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.

The reason there is so much value here is because Buffalo is overvalued off its 15-point win at Eastern Michigan, while Bowling Green is undervalued off its 11-point home loss to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons had won four straight prior to that contest, including a road win at Central Michigan and a home win over WMU.  I look for them to get back to playing the way they were before.

Buffalo is just 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  This team has been overvalued on a regular basis, and it continues to be here Saturday.  The Falcons continue lacking the respect they deserve despite going a ridiculous 16-4 ATS in all games this year.  Head coach Louis Orr is doing a fine job, and it helps that he returned four starters from last year to this veteran squad.

Buffalo is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover 3 of its last 4 games this season.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  The Falcons are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Falcons.  Roll with Bowling Green Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from an 86-89 road loss at Iowa State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season.  I like their chances of getting it at home this time around for a couple of different reasons.

Texas comes into this game playing great baseball.  It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a final of 69-71 at Oklahoma as 6.5-point dogs.  It has beaten Kansas State by 4 on the road, TCU by 23 and Texas Tech by 15 at home for its three wins during this stretch.

Iowa State is unbeatable at home, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  The Cyclones are just 5-6 in all road games this season, which includes neutral court games.  They have lost four of their last five road games to Oklahoma (by 11), Kansas (by 13), Texas Tech (by 5) and Baylor (by 1).  Their only two Big 12 road wins all year came at WVU and at Oklahoma State by a combined 7 points, so they are very close to being 0-6 on the road in conference play.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011.  Texas is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Iowa State.

Texas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 51-25 ATS in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse since 1997.  Take Texas Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on LSU -4

I don't normally like taking teams like LSU who have already beaten their opponent once this season.  But, given the circumstances, I'm willing to overlook the revenge factor for Florida and back the Tigers as small 4-point home favorites in the rematch.

LSU not only beat Florida, it dominated, winning 79-61 as 11-point road underdogs on January 20th.  I look for a similar beat down in the rematch as the Gators are just in a world of hurt right now, while the Tigers need this win badly.

LSU has lost four of its last six games overall to drop to 18-8 and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Well, all four losses came by 6 points or less, including a 2-point home loss to Kentucky as 10-point dogs.  This is still the second-best team in the SEC in my opinion.

Florida has been overvalued all season due to what it has done in the past.  Well, this may be the worst team that Billy Donnovan has ever had.  The Gators are just 13-13 on the season, including 9-14 ATS in all lined games.

The biggest reason I'm backing LSU today is because Florida is without its two best players.  Leading scorer Michael Frazier II (13.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is out with an ankle injury, while second-leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith (12.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) has recently been suspended and will miss this game.  Their next-leading scorer is Eli Carter (8.2 ppg), so they are obviously short-handed today.

LSU is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last 3 seasons.  Florida is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less this season.  The Gators are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  These four trends combine for a 34-5 system backing the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as only 3-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Nets (21-31) find themselves sitting in 9th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, just one game behind the Miami Heat.

That's why they should come out of the break highly motivated for a victory.  Plus, they went into the break with three straight losses, all of which came on the road to playoff contenders in Washington, Milwaukee and Memphis.  I look for them to dig down deep to get a win in their first game out of the break.

The Los Angeles Lakers (13-40) have the second-worst record in the Western Conference.  They have lost six straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall coming into this one.  Their last three losses all came by double-digits.  They are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 55-20 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Nets are 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons. 

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in its last eight after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game.  The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  In their first meeting of the season, the Bulls won 102-91 for 193 combined points.  I look for an even lower-scoring game in the second meeting.

The Pistons just traded point guard D.J. Augustin and forward Kyle Singler.  They got Reggie Jackson back in return, but he's not expected to play tonight.  They were already without Brandon Jennings.  That means the Pistons will essentially be without a point guard tonight, which will wreck their offensive production.

The Bulls have really been clamping down defensively here of late.  They have gone 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall while holding all six opponents to 101 or fewer points, and five of those to 99 or less.  They have allowed an average of 88.3 points per game in their last four.

Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor foul-drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws this season.  The Bulls are 17-6 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 206

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors are very familiar with one another right now as this will be their fourth and final meeting of the 2014-15 season.  Familiarity breeds defensive battles, and that will be the case tonight between these teams.

The first two meetings in this series were high-scoring and would have over this 206-point total.  However, they slowed down in the third meeting as the Hawks beat the Raptors 110-89 for 199 combined points.  The Hawks even shot 60.9% from the field in that game and it still only reached 199.

The biggest reason the Hawks have the best record in the East right now is their defense.  They only give up 96.8 points per game on the season and 95.3 points per game at home.  They rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency this season.

Toronto is 13-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  We're seeing an average of 186.0 combined points per game in this spot in Raptors' games.  The Raptors have been held to 95 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, and the UNDER is 4-1 in those contests.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Mavericks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder return from the All-Star Break in a great position to make the playoffs.  They won five of their final six games before the break to get to 28-25 on the season and just a half-game behind the Phoenix Suns for the No. 8 seed in the West.

The Thunder haven't only been winning here of late, they've been dominating.  Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, including a 16-point home win over Memphis, a 10-point win at Denver, a 23-point home win over the Clippers, and an 11-point road win at New Orleans.

The Dallas Mavericks are getting healthy coming out of the break.  They are expected to have Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler in the lineup for this game.  Amare Stoudemire is also probable after being acquired before the deadline.  While this is good news for the Mavs, it also has them overvalued coming into this game.  They should be more than 5-point dogs against the superior Thunder on the road.

The Thunder are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Mavericks.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois-Chicago -1

This is a battle between two of the worst teams in the Horizon League in the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (10-16) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (7-20).  I'll side with the home team laying the small number here for a couple of different reasons.

For starters, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a terrible road team.  In fact, it has gone 0-11 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 17.9 points per game.  It has lost seven straight road games by double-digits to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 11, Valpo by 25, Oakland by 13, Detroit by 16, Cleveland State by 27, South Dakota by 24, and Arkansas by 30.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Illinois-Chicago comes into this game playing its best basketball of the season.  It has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes impressive outright road wins as underdogs at Detroit (83-73) and Wright State (79-75).  It also played Valpo tough in a 5-point loss as a 10-point dog, and Cleveland State tough in an 8-point road loss as 14-point dogs.

The Flames will be out for revenge today from their 65-71 road loss to Milwaukee as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th just three weeks ago.  They'll be the more motivated team for sure.  Milwaukee could be in a hangover spot here from its tough 55-62 home loss to Valpo last time out in which it blew the game late.

Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.  Illinois-Chicago is 9-0 ATS off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Flames.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -4

You won't find many teams in the country with a bigger home/away discrepancy than the Indiana Hoosiers.  They have not been good at all on the road, going just 3-7 in all games played away from home.  Inside Assembly Hall, it has been a completely different story.

Indiana is 15-1 at home this season where it outscoring opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.  It is coming off a 19-point home win over Minnesota on Sunday and I fully expect it to blow out the Purdue Boilermakers today.

The Hoosiers will be out for revenge from their 67-83 loss at Purdue on January 28th.  That was yet another blowout win for the home team, which is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in this series, winning by 16, 18 and 28 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Purdue is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Assembly Hall.

Purdue comes into this game way overvalued due to going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Well, four of those wins came at home, while two were on the road to Big Ten bottom feeders Northwestern and Rutgers.  They also lost to Minnesota 58-62 on the road during this stretch.  So, this run has been more due to a soft, home-heavy schedule than anything.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Matt Painter is 0-6 ATS in road games after being called for 10-plus less fouls than their opponent last game as the coach of Purdue.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Hoosiers.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +8.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers (24-2) have certainly been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  However, that's clearly not the case any more as this team is getting respect with their No. 11 national ranking.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to.

The Panthers barely covered on Sunday in a 68-57 road win at lowly Missouri State as 10.5-point favorites.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against an underrated Loyola-Chicago team that is starting to play some of its best basketball of the season.

The Ramblers have won three of their last four to improve to 16-10 on the season.  More impressively, they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 11 at Wichita State as 18.5-point dogs, lost by 3 to Illinois State as 3.5-point home dogs, beat Missouri State by 3 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 4 as 3.5-point home favorites, and beat Bradley by 5 as 3.5-point road dogs.

I love taking teams in revenge mode after they played the other team tough in the first meeting, but lost.  That's the case here as Loyola-Chicago only lost by 9 as 11-point road underdogs to Northern Iowa on January 4th.  Now, they are 8.5-point home underdogs in the rematch.  That just shows you how overvalued Northern Iowa is because when you factor in 3.5 points for home court, this spread should only be UNI -4 based on the 11-point spread in the first meeting.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings between the Panthers and Ramblers dating back to 2005.  Northern Iowa is 2-12 ATS after leading its last game by 20 or more points at the half since 1997.  The Ramblers are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less this season.  Loyola is 14-4 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +12

Buzz Williams has done an excellent job in his first season at Virginia Tech.  This team was picked to finished at or near the bottom of the ACC coming into the season.  While it won't show up in the win-loss column, the Hokies have been ultra competitive in conference play.

Despite going 2-10 straight up within the ACC, the Hokies are a very profitable 8-4 ATS.  They upset Pitt and Georgia Tech at home, while also going on the road and covering against Louisville, UNC, Wake Forest and Syracuse.  They only lost by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs.  They only lost by 3 at home to Virginia as 16.5-point dogs as well.

The Miami Hurricanes are 16-9 this season, but they have really struggled here of late.  They are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech as 9.5-point favorites, an 8-point home loss to Louisville as 4.5-point dogs, a 1-point loss at FSU as 2-point favorites, and a 2-point loss at Wake Forest as 2.5-point favorites.

What really stood out to me when looking into this game is the rest situation.  Miami played on Monday in an 89-86 (double OT) road win at Boston College.  It will have just one day off in between games, and the double OT factor will only magnify the short rest.  VA Tech will have had three days off in between games since losing at Clemson on Saturday.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 120-64 (65.2%) ATS since 1997.  Miami is 10-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.

Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Hokies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  VA Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, which have all been decided by 7 points or less, and by a combined 11 points.  These three trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Hokies.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +12

The East Carolina Pirates have quietly been a covering machine here of late, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are showing excellent value once again tonight as double-digit road underdogs to the reeling Tulsa Godlen Hurricane.

The Pirates have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost to Tulsa 64-66 as 9.5-point home dogs, to Memphis by 12 as 14.5-point road dogs, beat Cincinnati by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs, lost to UConn by 13 as 14-point road dogs, beat UCF by 18 as 5-point home favorites, beat Memphis by 11 as 5.5-point home dogs, and lost to Temple by 13 as 13-point road dogs.

As you can see, the Pirates have played some of the best teams in the American Athletic down to the wire during this stretch.  That includes the 64-66 home loss to Tulsa, which means that the Pirates will be out for revenge in the rematch.  They aren't going to lose this game by more than 12 points having only lost to the Golden Hurricane by 2 at home.

Tulsa benefited from a very easy schedule in the first half of the season, and now it has been way overvalued here of late.  It is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes back-to-back losses to SMU by 11 at home and to Connecticut by 25 on the road.  This team is broken right now, and it won't be fixed in time to put ECU away by 13-plus points tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (E CAROLINA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1997.  ECU is 10-2 ATS in February games over the last two years.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this season, coming back to win by an average of 8.7 points per game in this spot.  ECU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. loss.  The Pirates are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Pirates.  Take East Carolina Wednesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -1

The average amateur bettor would see Wyoming (20-6) as an underdog to Nevada (8-16) and automatically take the Cowboys because of their record.  Well, there's a reason why the Wolf Pack are favored instead, and I believe they should be a much heavier favorite today.

Wyoming is playing without star forward Larry Nance Jr., who has missed the past three games due to Mono.  He is as important to his team as any player in the country.  Nance leads the Cowboys in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.2 rpg) by a wide margin as he is only one of two players scoring in double-figures.  He also shoots 54.8% from the field and 78.7% from the free throw line.

The loss of Nance Jr. has been felt in their last three games.  They lost 50-73 at Air Force as 1-point underdogs, 41-67 at San Diego State as 12-point dogs, and beat San Jose State 77-60 as 18.5-point home favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their three games without him.

I really like the way Nevada has been playing here of late.  Sure, it is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall, but it has gone 4-3 ATS during this stretch.  It only lost by 4 at Fresno State as 7.5-point dogs, to UNLV by 5 as 4-point home dogs, to Wyoming by 8 as 13.5-point road dogs, to San Diego State by 2 as 11-point home dogs, and to Utah State by 13 as 8-point road dogs.  It beat San Jose State 60-57 on the road and New Mexico 66-63 at home.

It's their last three home games that really stand out against three of the best teams in the MWC.  They only lost to UNLV by 5, San Diego State by 2, and beat New Mexico by 3 as stated before.  Those three results alone show me that the Wolf Pack are capable of beating Wyoming even if they had Nance Jr., but without him they surely will beat the Cowboys.

After all, the Wolf Pack played the Cowboys tough in their first meeting, only losing 55-63 on the road as 13.5-point dogs on January 31st.  Nance Jr. had a double-double in that contest, collecting 11 points, 10 rebounds and 4 steals.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series.  Wyoming is 4-5 in true road games this year with its only wins coming against Montana State, San Jose State, Colorado State and Fresno State.

Wyoming is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 42% or less of their shots this year.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Wolf Pack.  Bet Nevada Tuesday.

20* Pitt/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +12.5

I've successfully faded Virginia each of their last two games with a 4-point win at NC State as 7-point road favorites, and a 1-point win over Wake Forest as 17.5-point home favorites.  It's no coincidence that I'm fading them again tonight for the same reason.  They remain without their best player, Justin Anderson.

Oddsmakers are once again failing to factor in how important Anderson is to this team as the Cavaliers are ridiculous 12.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh.  This will be his third missed game as he also sat out the NC State and Wake Forest games.  Anderson is second on the team in scoring (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  He shoots 48.0% from the floor, 48.4% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He is irreplaceable on this team.

The Cavaliers have had a hard time living up to their No. 2 national ranking and their 23-1 record here of late.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, time and time again being overvalued by oddsmakers.  They only beat VA Tech by 3 as 16.5-point road favorites, lost to Duke by 6 as 6-point home favorites, and beat Louisville by 5 as 6.5-point home favorites in their other three ATS losses during this stretch.

Pitt (17-9) has put itself right back into the NCAA Tournament discussion by winning four of its last five games overall.  It has beaten three of the better teams in the ACC in Notre Dame (76-72), Syracuse (83-77) and North Carolina (89-76) during this stretch, so it's not like the Panthers are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes.

Virginia won the ACC regular season title and the ACC conference tournament last year.  Well, nobody played the Cavaliers tougher than Pitt did.  They lost 45-48 at home to Virginia on February 2nd, and then 48-51 on the road in the ACC Tournament.  After two heartbreaking 3-point losses to the Cavaliers last year, you can bet that the Panthers will be out for revenge in their first meeting of 2015.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, playing their 3rd game in a week are 74-41 (64.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Virginia is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Jamie Dixon is 33-19 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Pitt.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Bet Pitt Monday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +18

It has been a tale of three seasons for the California Golden Bears.  They opened 10-1 and looked poised to challenge Arizona for a Pac-12 Title.  Eight losses in nine games later, and they were left for dead.  But they have found their mojo once again over the last couple weeks.

Indeed, the Golden Bears are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Washington State 76-67 as 2.5-point road dogs to start the streak.  They then won at Washington 90-88 as 6.5-points dogs, beat USC 70-69 as 7.5-point home favorites, topped UCLA 64-62 as 4-point home dogs, and upset Colorado 68-61 as 7-point road dogs.

Despite their recent solid play, they still continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  I'll gladly take advantage tonight and back them as massive 18-point road underdogs to the Utah Utes, who couldn't possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.

With a 19-4 record and the No. 11 ranking in the country, the Utes are getting a ton of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers right now.  They have created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to, especially tonight as 18-point favorites against one of the hottest teams in the Pac-12.

California is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with Utah.  In six meetings as Pac-12 opponents, the Bears are 4-2 SU with their two losses coming by 4 and 10 points.  That 10-point loss even came in overtime.  While the Utes have one of the best teams they've ever had, asking them to win by 19-plus points to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

Plays against any team (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 131-72 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cal is 13-3 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  The Bears are 46-22 ATS int heir last 68 road games after playing their last game as a road underdog.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet California Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers come into this game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers highly motivated for a victory.  The Hoosiers have lost four of their last six games overall, including a heartbreaking 66-68 loss at Maryland last time out.  Well, all four of those losses came on the road, where the Hoosiers have struggled all season.

It has been a completely different story at home inside Assembly Hall for the Hoosiers.  Indeed, they are 14-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of SMU, Pitt, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan at home this season.  This is a very generous 2.5-point spread given their success at home this year.

Minnesota was undervalued after a poor start to the season that featured several close losses.  However, it is now overvalued due to having won three straight coming into this one.  Well, two of those wins came at home against Nebraska and Purdue, while the other was a quality win at Iowa last time out.

The Gophers beat the Hawkeyes 64-59 on the road Thursday night.  That means they've only had two days off in between games to rest and prepare for Indiana.  The Hoosiers have had three days off since their 2-point loss at Maryland Wednesday.  I know it's not much, but that extra day of rest and preparation for the Hoosiers on such a short turnaround for both teams is a big advantage.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Minnesota and Indiana.  In fact, the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Indiana is 10-3 SU in all home meetings with Minnesota dating back to 1998.  Also consider that Minnesota is just 1-5 in Big Ten road games this season.  It has lost at Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State all by 3 points or more.

Plays against an underdog (MINNESOTA) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Minnesota is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Indiana is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Golden Gophers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Take Indiana Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois-Chicago +14

This is one of my favorite situations in college basketball.  I like taking double-digit road underdogs in the rematch after losing to their opponent at home by single-digits in the first meeting.  That is the exact scenario here with Illinois-Chicago up against Cleveland State.

Illinois-Chicago lost the first meeting 69-74 to Cleveland State as 8-point home underdogs on January 4th.  The Flames only shot 37.1% and gave up 59.1% shooting to the Vikings, yet still only lost by 5 points.  They did so by outrebounding the Vikings 35-18 for the game, and 15-1 on the offensive glass.  I look for their ability to dominate the boards to come in handy once again in the rematch.

Not only will Cleveland State have a hard time being motivated enough to beat Illinois-Chicago by 15-plus points in the rematch, it will also be the more tired, less-prepared team in this one.  Cleveland State last played on Friday in a 65-66 loss at Detroit, giving it just one day in between games.  Illinois-Chicago has had two days off since a win at Wright State on Thursday.  That extra day off is huge when we're talking about such a short turnaround here for both teams.

I really love the way the Flames have been playing here of late.  They are undervalued due to their 7-19 record, but they have been playing much better than that record would indicate down the stretch.  The Flames are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

They only lost by 6 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as 8-point underdogs and by 5 to Valpo as 10-point home dogs to start this stretch.  They have since gone on the road in their last two games to pull off back-to-back upsets over Detroit (83-73) as 9.5-point dogs and Wright State (79-75) as 7-point road dogs.  That's the same Detroit team that Cleveland State beat by 4 and lost to by 1 in their two meetings this season.

Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor rebounding teams who average 33 or less boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Flames are 8-0 ATS off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two years.  Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS off a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Flames.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -3

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing some of the best value that they've shown all season today as only 3-point home favorites over the young, rebuilding Vanderbilt Commodores.  At 15-9 on the season, the Crimson Tide are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

The reason Alabama comes in undervalued is because it is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall.  Well four of those six losses came on the road, while the other two came at home to Kentucky and Florida.  The Crimson Tide have held their own at home this season, going 12-2 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.

The future is bright for Vanderbilt, but right now this team is just a mediocre 13-11 squad that has no business being only a 3-point road underdog to the Crimson Tide.  Vanderbilt has been a really tough out at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Commodores are 1-6 in true road games this season.  Their only road win came at Atlantic 10 bottom feeder Saint Louis, and they are 0-5 in SEC road games.

Vanderbilt is 37-59 ATS in its last 96 Saturday road games.  Alabama is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 home games following a game with 9 or less assists.  The Crimson Tide are 12-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the past two seasons.  Take Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +5.5

This game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Kansas State Wildcats Saturday is the ultimate 'buy low' and 'sell high' game.  We're going to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost five straight coming in.  We're going to 'sell high' on the Sooners, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The clear value in this game is on the Wildcats as 5.5-point home underdogs based on the information I just presented.  The betting public is all over the Sooners because of their recent play, driving this line way out of whack.  At the same time, the betting public wants nothing to do with Kansas State.

Sure, the Wildcats have lost five straight, but there is reason to believe they can put an end to that streak.  Three of the five losses came by 6 points or less to WVU (twice) and Texas), which are two formidable opponents.  The other two came on the road at Kansas and Texas Tech.

Plus, Kansas State has been playing without its best player in Marcus Foster (14.0 ppg) for the past three games, but he's expected to return today against Oklahoma.  That's big because Foster hit the game-winning 3-pointer in overtime to beat the Sooners 66-63 on the road in their first meeting of the season back on January 10th.  Foster is averaging 17 points per game and has shot 10-for-18 from 3-point range in his last three games against the Sooners.

Oklahoma has won five in a row, but three of those games were at home, while the other two were on the road against TCU and Oklahoma State.  The Sooners are coming off a huge home win over Iowa State earlier this week, which sets them up for a letdown spot here.

Kansas State is 4-2 at home this season in Big 12 play with its two losses coming to Texas & West Virginia by a combined 10 points.  It has beaten TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State at home this season.  The Wildcats' home-court advantage is no joke.  They are 124-23 over the past nine seasons at home, including 55-18 in Big 12 play.  Head coach Bruce Weber is 42-7 in home games in his K-State tenure, including 20-4 (.833) during Big 12 play.

The Wildcats have been a matchup nightmare for the Sooners in recent meetings.  In fact, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Sooners.  They have held Oklahoma to 66 or fewer points in four of those five meetings, and I look for their defense to keep them in this one as well.  They will be highly motivated to put an end to their five-game skid, which will only add to the defensive intensity.

Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (KANSAS ST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Oklahoma is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Sooners.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +17.5

I am looking for every opportunity to fade Virginia now that they are without their best player in Justin Anderson for four-to-six weeks due to a broken finger.  It worked in my first test on Wednesday as the Cavaliers failed to cover the spread as 7-point road favorites at NC State in a fortunate 51-47 victory.

Anderson is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He would be a star on any other team where he was asked to do more.  Anderson is second on the team in scoring (13.4 ppg), and he does a little bit of everything.  What's most impressive about him is that he shoots 48.0% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He will be missed greatly.

Virginia is already overvalued due to being the No. 2 team in the country with a 22-1 record.  It was already struggling to live up to expectations from oddsmakers, going 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Cavaliers won by 3 at VA Tech as 16.5-point favorites, lost to Duke by 6 as 6-point favorites, beat North Carolina on the road, only beat Louisville by 5 as 6.5-point favorites, and then beat NC State by 4 as 7-point road favorites.  It's no nearly impossible for them to live up to the expectations without Anderson.

Wake Forest is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Danny Manning.  The Demon Deacons have been highly competitive this season en route to a respectable 12-13 record.  They have a 9-point loss to Louisville, an 8-point loss to Duke, and a 3-point loss to Syracuse as they just do not get blown out.

In fact, the Demon Deacons haven't lost by more than 16 points since their first loss of the season to Arkansas.  So, they have gone 22 straight games without losing by more than 16 points.  They are 4-7 in ACC play with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.  Don't expect the Demon Deacons to get blown out today, either.

That's especially the case with the way they are playing coming into this game.  They have won three of their last four games overall.  They beat Virginia Tech 73-70 at home, NC State 88-84 at home and Miami 72-70 at home.  They nearly pulled off upsets on the road in their two games before that, losing 57-59 at Clemson and 76-82 (OT) at Florida State.

Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.  The Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  Wake Forest is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +17.5

I've made a killing fading No. 1 Kentucky here of late, and I'm going to do so again today as the oddsmakers and the betting public continue to overvalue them.  The betting public is always enamored with the No. 1 team in the country, especially one like the Wildcats who have a chance for an unbeaten season.

Fading Kentucky has indeed been a great move here of late.  It is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 16 at Missouri as 17.5-point favorites, by 15 at home against Alabama as 19-point favorites, by 11 at home of Georgia s 18-point favorites, by 7 at Florida as 8-point favorites, and by 2 at LSU as 10-point favorites.  Off such a huge win over LSU last time out, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Wildcats as well.

One of the biggest reasons the Gamecocks are catching so many points is because they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Well, this team was clearly overvalued after its 64-60 upset win over Iowa State in its final non-conference game.  That win gave the Gamecocks expectations that they haven't been able to live up to in SEC play.

Well, it's not like they haven't been competitive during their current 3-8 SU & 1-10 ATS stretch.  In fact, seven of their eight losses have come by 16 points or less, which is less than this 17.5-point spread.  Four of the losses came by 6 points or fewer as well.  This is still a very talented team that can beat anyone on any given day.

Kentucky will not only be in a letdown spot following the LSU win, but it will also have a hard time finding the motivation to beat a team that it already beat by 15 points once this season.  The Wildcats won 58-43 at South Carolina on January 24th.  The Gamecocks could not have played any worse. 

They shot 22.6% from the field, yet they still only lost by 15 points.  The Gamecocks will certainly fare better this time around.  They also outrebounded Kentucky 40-28 overall and 14-2 on the offensive glass.  That's a promising sign that they can win the battle on the glass again, which will help them stay within 17.5 points.

South Carolina is a sensational 29-13 ATS in its last 42 road games revenging a loss against an opponent by 10 points or more.  Kentucky is 4-13 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last three seasons.  John Calipari is 44-60 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more as the coach of Kentucky.  Roll with South Carolina Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -1.5

The Michigan State Spartans certainly have not been dominant this season like they have been in year's past.  They currently sit at 16-8 on the season.  But, like almost every Tom Izzo team before this one, the Spartans have gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Spartans have won seven of their last 10 games overall, including an emphatic 68-44 road win at Illinois last time out.  It has also blown out Iowa by 14 on the road, Rutgers by 20 on the road, and Indiana by 20 at home during this stretch.  I look for Izzo's bunch to continue hitting on all cylinders today against Ohio State.

Michigan State is 10-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 15.1 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings as the home team has won four straight between the Buckeyes and Spartans.

The Buckeyes come into this game way overvalued due to having won five of their last six games overall.  Well, those six games have come against Northwestern, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers and Penn State.  Back-to-back blowouts over the latter two teams are what have them really overvalued here as only 1.5-point road underdogs.

The Buckeyes have not fared very well away from home this year.  They are just 3-4 in true road games.  Their only three road wins came at Minnesota (74-72, OT), at Northwestern (69-67) and at Rutgers, so they haven't beaten anyone of any relevance on the road, and two of them were lucky close wins.  They have also been beaten at Louisville, at Indiana, at Iowa and at Purdue.  Simply put, they're not nearly as good of a road team as they are a home squad.

One small factor to consider here is that Ohio State last played on Wednesday giving it two days off in between games, while Michigan State last played on Tuesday giving it three days off.  This will also be the 3rd game in a week for the Buckeyes.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing their 3rd game in a week are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16-plus assists per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  Ohio State is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

25* Horizon League GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso -2.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders (22-4) and Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (20-5) are tied for first place in the Horizon League standings.  Which ever team wins this game will likely go on to win the title.  My money is on the slight 2.5-point home favorite Crusaders to get the job done.

This will be a rematch from a 51-50 home win by the Phoenix back on January 23rd.  Obviously, the Crusaders showed they could hang with the Phoenix on the road in that game, and now I fully expect them to have their revenge at home this time around.  After all, the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings with Valpo going 4-0 at home during this stretch.

The Crusaders have won nine of their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming at Green Bay by a single point.  They have been virtually unbeatable at home this season, going 11-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 14.5 points per game.  Green Bay is a mediocre 5-4 in true road games this year.

What really intrigues me about the Crusaders tonight is that they'll be the more rested, more prepared team.  That's because they last played on February 8th against Oakland, giving them four days off in between games.  Green Bay, meanwhile, last played on Wednesday in a narrow 63-62 win at Youngstown State as 11.5-point favorites.  So, the Phoenix have only had one day in between games to get ready for the Crusaders, which is a huge disadvantage.

Green Bay is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three straight wins over conference opponents.  Valparaiso is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 Friday games.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.  The Crusaders are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Valparaiso Friday.

25* Summit League GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -2.5

There's a reason that the 17-7 North Dakota State Bison are underdogs to the 10-13 Denver Pioneers tonight.  That reason is because the Pioneers have one of the best home-court advantages in the entire country, and they have for years.

The high altitude in Denver gives the Pioneers and advantage, similar to what it does for the Broncos in the NFL and the Nuggets in the NBA.  It's just a proven fact that it's an advantage because they are used to playing in altitude, while opposing teams are not and tend to get tired a lot faster as a result.

Denver has gone 9-4 at home this season compared to 1-9 on the road.  It has won each of its last three home games in impressive fashion, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 14, Oral Roberts by 7, and Western Illinois by 14.  It has also beaten South Dakota State and St. Joseph's at home recently.

North Dakota State is not as dominant as it has been in year's past as it returned just two starters this year.  This is still a quality team, but one that has proven to be vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, NDSU is 4-6 in true road games this season.

Denver will be out for revenge from a 54-61 (OT) loss at North Dakota State on January 29th only two weeks ago.  It will have its revenge as the home team has been dominant in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between NDSU and Denver since 2004.

The Bison are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  NDSU is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Pioneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  NDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.  The Pioneers are 60-36 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.  Bet Denver Thursday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Marymount +24.5

With a 24-1 record and a No. 3 ranking, the Gonzaga Bulldogs have created expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  That has certainly been the case here of late, and it is again tonight as 24.5-point favorites over Loyola-Marymount.

The Bulldogs are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have been double-digits favorites in all nine games, but not once more than a 24.5-point favorite like they are tonight.  Eight of their last nine wins have come by 22 points or less as well.  They aren't going to be motivated at all to face Loyola-Marymount tonight.

The Lions are just 8-17 on the season, so they obviously don't get much respect from the betting public or the oddsmakers.  But, they have been more competitive than their record would suggest.  They have been a real money-maker on the road, going 3-10 SU but 9-4 ATS.

Only one of Loyola's 17 losses this season has come by more than 24 points.  It has been a real profit machine here of late, going 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 9-point loss at San Diego as 10-point dogs,, a 13-point loss at BYU as 21-point dogs, a 12-point home win over Portland as 4-point dogs, a 3-point loss at Santa Clara as 5.5-point dogs, a 1-point win at San Francisco as 9-point dogs, 5-point win at Pacific as 3.5-point dogs, and a 9-point win over San Diego as 3-point home dogs.

Loyola hasn't lost by more than 18 in any of its last 15 games overall.  That includes a 17-point home loss to Gonzaga as 19.5-point dogs on January 17th.  Having already beaten the Lions by 17 this season, I just don't see the Bulldogs bringing the effort it's going to take to put them away by 25-plus the second time around.  After all, each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 19 points or less.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points (LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 82-42 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.  Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Loyola is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  Gonzaga is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Lions.  Take Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +11

The Utah Utes are certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have gone 18-4 up to this point, including a perfect 13-0 at home this season.  With these records and the No. 11 ranking in the nation comes expectations from the oddsmakers that this team is going to have a tough time living up to going forward.

Utah has no business being a double-digit favorite over a Stanford team that is 16-7 on the season and in prime position to make the NCAA Tournament.  This 11-point spread would indicate that the Utes are roughly 7 points better than Stanford on a neutral court, and I'm just not buying it.

Stanford is very close to being a 20-win team right now.  Five of its seven losses have come by 7 points or less, including four by a combined 10 points.  Only once all season has it lost a game by more than 11 points, and that fact alone shows you that there is some value in backing them here.

Stanford has Utah's number, too.  It has won four of five meetings with the Utes as Pac-12 opponents dating back to 2012.  Its only loss came by a single point at Utah 58-57 back in 2012.  The Cardinal have outscored the Utes by a combined 52 points in those five meetings.

Plays against a favorite (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 105-57 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Stanford is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 vs. slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots per game.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Stanford Thursday.

15* Rockets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public has shunned this team here of late.  But keep in mind that they are coming off a grueling 8-game road trip that featured seven games against playoff contenders.

The Clippers did finish the trip with a resounding 115-98 road win over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday.  They have played their last two games without Blake Griffin, and while that is a concern, I don't believe it's as big of a deal as the betting public is making it out to be.  I also look at is as a 'wash' heading into this game with Houston because the Rockets are without Dwight Howard.

What I really like about this play is that it's a very tough situation for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning a 127-118 shootout at Phoenix last night.  Without Howard, the Rockets are having to rely on James Harden too much.  He delivered with 40 points in 43 minutes of action last night, but he is running on fumes right now and will be ineffective tonight.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  These games haven't even been close as the Clippers have won by 17, 11, 8, 13 and 19 points with three of those victories actually coming on the road.  That's an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game.  Harden has been limited to 18.6 points and 37.0 percent from the floor in those five contests.

Houston is 11-22 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +9.5

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Air Force Falcons their due respect tonight.  Getting them as 9.5-point road underdogs to the Boise State Broncos is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage.

Air Force is just 11-12 on the season, but 10-7 when leading scorer Max Yon has played.  He missed six games right in the middle of the Mountain West season, and it's no surprise that the Falcons went 1-5 without him.  Yon averages 14.2 points per game, and the second-leading scorer averages 10.0 per game, so he is simply irreplaceable for them.

It's no surprise that the Falcons are 2-0 since Yon returned from injury.  They beat New Mexico 53-49 as 4-point home underdogs before crushing Wyoming 73-50 as 1-point home favorites last time out.  The injury to Yon has been a blessing in disguise because different players have had to step up with more minutes.  It has made this a much more balanced team now.  In fact, six different players scored at least 7 points in the 23-point win over Wyoming last time out.

Boise State could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It is certainly time to 'buy low' on Air Force and 'sell high' on Boise State right now. 

That's especially the case considering the Broncos are in a massive letdown spot here after their huge 61-46 win over MWC Title favorite San Diego State on Sunday.  Plus, Air Force will be out for revenge from a 68-77 home loss to Boise State on January 24th.  The Falcons were playing without Yon in that game.  The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Falcons a second time.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (AIR FORCE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off two or more consecutive home wins are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boise State is 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Falcons.  Roll with Air Force Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +7

The No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (21-1) are clearly one of the best teams in the country.  However, with that 21-1 record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  We're seeing it with undefeated Kentucky, and we'll be seeing it with Virginia as well.

The Cavaliers struggled to put away NC State in the first meeting between these teams, winning 61-51 as 14-point home favorites.  The Wolfpack will clearly be out for revenge in the rematch, and I look for them to not only cover as 7-point home dogs this time around, but to likely win this one outright.

Virginia has a two-game lead in the loss column over Duke in the ACC, so it can actually afford a loss here.  Now, the Cavaliers are without arguably their best player in Justin Anderson, who suffered a broken finger in his left shooting hand in Saturday's 52-47 home win over Louisville.

While many folks may not have heard of Anderson, this guy is an absolute stud and one of the most underrated players in the country.  He is second on the team with 13.4 points per game and first in the conference at 48.4 percent from 3-point range.  You just don't replace a guy like Anderson.

The Wolfpack (14-10) are squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and another win over a top-10 team would go a long way.  NC State beat Duke 87-75 at home four days after the loss in Virginia.  Including an overtime loss on January 25 to then-No. 8 Notre Dame, the Wolfpack have won four of seven in Raleigh against top 10 opponents.  They also had a 2-point home loss to UNC, so they have proven they can play with the ACC's elite at home this year.

NC State is a perfect 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 4.1 points per game in these situations.  The Wolfpack are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  NC State is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +12.5

Quietly, the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-9) have been playing some of the best basketball in the Big Ten over the past couple weeks.  Yet, the betting public and the oddsmakers continue to give them no respect as 12.5-point road underdogs to the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.

The Nittany Lions are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The lost by 6 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs, beat Rutgers by 28 as 7-point home favorites, beat Minnesota by 5 as 1.5-point home dogs, lost at Illinois by 2 as 6-point road dogs, lost at Maryland by 6 as 7.5-point road dogs, and beat Nebraska by 13 as 4-point home favorites during their six straight covers.

However, the Nittany Lions have really been competitive all season within the Big Ten.  While they are just 3-8 within the conference, seven of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  The only exception was a 17-point loss at Wisconsin as 18.5-point underdogs in the Big Ten opener, and they even covered the spread in that game.

Ohio State comes into this game way overvalued due to having won four of its last five games overall, which includes double-digit wins over Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.  The Buckeyes beat Rutgers by 19 on Sunday, meaning they only have two days of rest in between games.  Penn State last played on Saturday, so it will have three days off coming in, and that one extra day is a big advantage on a short turnaround.

There is one key loss here for the Buckeyes that I don't believe is getting factored into the line at all.  Second-leading scorer Marc Loving (11.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg) has been suspended for an undisclosed number of games.  Loving shoots 49.1% from the field and 53.2% from 3-point range, so his ability to space the floor for the Buckeyes has been absolutely huge.

With four starters back from last year's team that swept the season series with Ohio State, the Nittany Lions certainly have the confidence to pull off the upset again today.  They won 71-70 as 13-point road dogs, and then came back with a 65-63 home win as 5.5-point dogs in their two meetings with the Buckeyes last year.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (PENN ST) - after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games, with four starters returning from last season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season, only losing by an average of 2.3 points per game in this role.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They have done so behind what has been one of the league's best defenses during this stretch.  I look for another solid defensive performance from them tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Memphis' last 11 games overall.  It currently ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but has been much better than that of late.  The Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall, giving up an average of just 86.5 points per game during this stretch.

The Nets are no defensive juggernauts by any means, and Memphis may put up a decent point total, but I just don't expect this Brooklyn offense to have much success.  The Nets are a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 5 days.  I don't expect the fatigue to affect their defense, but it will affect their offense quite a bit.

Both of these teams like to play at slow paces.  Memphis ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging 94.1 possessions per game.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.  The Nets aren't going to look to run at all because of how tired they are right now.  This game will be played in the half court from start to finish, which definitely favors the UNDER.

The last five meetings between Brooklyn and Memphis have average 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.5.  Plus, this is the highest posted total set in this series in any of the last seven meetings.  That fact alone shows you there's some value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Nets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six games playing on 0 rest.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Nets last 23 road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. Eastern Conference.  These last four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Bulls UNDER 198

The Chicago Bulls certainly have an improved offense this season with Derrick Rose back healthy and the addition of Pau Gasol, but make no mistake about it, this team is still defense first.  That has really started to show here of late.

After a poor start to the season defensively, the Bulls have picked it up on that end of the floor of late.  They are 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 games overall.  They have allowed an average of just 92.3 points per game in their last four contests.

The Sacramento Kings have been a great UNDER bet here of late as well.  Indeed, they are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  Their defense has been respectable during this stretch as they've played the likes of Cleveland, Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Utah and Phoenix.

I would consider four of those six teams to be elite offensively, and they held five of those six to 102 points or less.  However, the reason they are on a 6-0 UNDER run is because their offense has been horrid.  The Kings are averaging just 89.7 points in their last six games, not once reaching the 100-point mark.

The Kings could be without two of their top three scorers tonight, which will only make matters more difficult for them.  Rudy Gay (19.9 ppg) missed Sunday's game with a sore left foot and is questionable to return.  Darren Collison (16.1 ppg, 5.6 apg) has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain and is doubtful to return against the Bulls.

The recent head-to-head history between these teams is what really has me excited about the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings as they've combined for 191, 181 and 169 points.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Sacramento is 10-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games overall.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -2

The Temple Owls (17-7) are a much different team today than the one that lost to Cincinnati 53-84 on the road on January 17th.  They have gotten fully healthy since, and they have been on an absolute tear as a result.

The Owls are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 25-point home win over South Florida, a 24-point road win at UCF, an 18-point home win over Tulane, a 13-point road win at South Florida, and a 1-point road win at Memphis.  Now, the Owls will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season to the Bearcats, and I fully expect them to get it at home tonight.

After all, Temple is 10-2 at home this year where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to arguably the top two teams in the AAC in Tulsa and Tulane by a combined 12 points.  Cincinnati is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  It has lost to UConn, Memphis and ECU on the road within AAC play.

The Bearcats are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Cincinnati is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC foes.  Take Temple Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +10

The LSU Tigers are exactly the type of team that has what it takes to upset the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats tonight.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 17-6 on the season.  I like their chances of giving the Wildcats a run for their money because of how they are built.

The Tigers actually have the two big men that can stand up to Kentucky's two big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, who just dominate most teams.  They won't be dominating LSU's Jordan Mickey (17.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 3.6 bpg) and Jarell Martin (16.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg).

The Wildcats have been vulnerable at times this season.  They needed overtime to beat both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and they are coming off a 7-point win at Florida where they trailed the majority of the game but pulled away late.  Remember, LSU beat Florida 79-61 on the road on January 20th.

The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Their two home losses came by a combined 8 points.  The home team has won five straight in this series.  Four of the last five meetings between Kentucky and LSU have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less.

LSU is 53-28 ATS in its last 81 games off a home win over a conference opponent.  Kentucky is 9-19 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 147.5

I am pretty certain that tonight's game between the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners is going to be a shootout.  These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the conference, and their recent meetings have been very high-scoring.

The Cyclones average 79.9 points per game on 48.9% shooting this year.  They look to push the ball every chance they get.  The Sooners are averaging a respectable 72.2 points per game on 44.9% shooting, but keep in mind they played a very tough non-conference schedule.

The OVER is 7-1 in Iowa State's last eight games overall.  They have combined with their last eight opponents for 147, 167, 148, 151, 175, 149, 165 and 113 points.  Oddsmakers just can't set the totals high enough for them, and they have failed to do so again tonight.

As stated before, this has been a very high-scoring series.  The Cyclones and Sooners have combined for 147 or more points in eight of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged 154.8 combined points per game in their last nine meetings.  They combined for 169 and 156 points in their two meetings last year.

The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The OVER is 53-25-1 in Cyclones last 79 games overall.  Iowa State is 9-0 to the OVER vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 18-2 in Iowa State's last 20 games versus good defensive teams that have allowed 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games.  Oklahoma is  7-0 to the OVER in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers +8.5

After seeing the Clippers get destroyed by the Thunder on Sunday in their first game without Blake Griffin, the betting public has been quick to jump on the Dallas Mavericks today.  That has created some excellent line value to pounce on the Clippers as 8.5-point road underdogs in this matchup.

Losing Griffin was a bit of a surprise as the news that he was out until after the All-Star Break wasn't announced until Sunday morning.  The Clippers obviously did not play well in their first game without him, but they'll make the proper adjustments heading into this game tonight.

Plus, I look for the Clippers to dig down a little deeper tonight to try and put an end to their four-game losing streak.  All four losses have come on the road to the Nets, Cavaliers, Raptors and Thunder, so they have obviously been dealt a brutal schedule.  This is the final game of a long seven-game road trip, and the Clippers will be motivated to try and end it on a high note.  With the All-Star Break coming up shortly, I don't expect fatigue to be a factor.

While the Clippers are undervalued due to having lost four straight, the Mavericks are overvalued after winning five of their last six. Well, their five victories have come against the likes of Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Sacramento and Portland.  The win over the Blazers came at home in overtime, and it represents the only playoff team they have beaten during this stretch. 

In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-5 straight up in their last six games against teams with winning records.  While the Griffin injury is big for the Clippers, the oddsmakers are discounting the Rajon Rondo injury for the Mavericks, which is nearly as big as the loss of Griffin for the Clippers.  It all adds up to the value being with the road underdog tonight.

The Clippers are 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with the Mavericks.  Their two losses have come by 6 points at home and by 7 points (in OT) on the road.  So, they have clearly had the Mavericks' number in this series here of late.  In fact, they have not lost by more than 7 points to Dallas in any of their last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 8.5-point spread.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this game, and we'll take advantage.  They have set the bar too high time and time again for both of these teams when it comes to the point total.

Indeed, the Nets are 31-19 to the UNDER this season, while the Bucks are 30-21 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Bucks' last 22 games overall, while the UNDER is 4-0 in Nets' last four games overall.  Yet, they continue to inflate the totals of both of these teams here tonight.

The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this season at 28-23 is because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.1 points per 100 possessions.  Amazingly, they have allowed 95 or fewer points in 16 of their last 23 games overall.

The Bucks figure to shut down a Brooklyn team that ranks 24th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 100.0 points per 100 possessions.  Another reason to love the UNDER here is because the Nets play at a slow tempo.  They rank 25th in the league in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.

Many amateur bettors will see the final score of the first meeting between these teams this season and jump on the OVER.  Milwaukee beat Brooklyn 122-118 in double-overtime back on November 19th.  Well, that game was tied 95-95 at the end of regulation for 190 combined points.

Brooklyn is 12-2 to the UNDER in road games following a loss this season.  Milwaukee is 12-2 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less this year.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Nets last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10

I realize the Orlando Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back after their tough 97-98 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  However, I believe they will be motivated enough to push through the fatigue.  After all, this is still a very young team, so back-to-backs don't bother them as much.

The reason the Magic will be motivated is because they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Wizards.  The Wizards are 3-0 against the Magic this season, but those three wins have come by 7, 5 and 2 points.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

Don't be surprised to see the Magic pull off the upset tonight with the way they have been playing here of late.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs, by 1 to Chicago as 6-point dogs, and they also beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point favorites.  As you can see, they have hung right with some of the best teams in the league here of late.

The Wizards are not playing well at all right now, which is why they should not be laying double-digit points to the Magic.  Washington is 1-5 straight up in its last six games overall.  It is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, yet it continues to be overvalued tonight against the Magic laying such a big number.

The Magic are a sensational 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  This trend just goes to show their ability to hang with good teams on the road.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Magic Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -6

The Baylor Bears are easily one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They continue to get better and better with each game, and I look for them to blow the Oklahoma State Cowboys out of the building tonight at home.

The Bears have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall right in the heart of their Big 12 schedule.  Their lost four wins could not have been any more impressive.  They beat Oklahoma by 11 at home, Texas by 23 at home, TCU by 20 at home, and West Virginia by 18 on the road.  If that's not an impressive run, then I don't know what is.

Yes, their lone loss over their past five games came at Oklahoma State by a final of 53-64, but that will actually work in their favor here because they'll be out for revenge.  Meanwhile, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cowboys not only because they have already beaten the Bears, but also because they are coming off their biggest win of the season Saturday in a come-from-behind 67-62 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks.  It's only human nature for them to let up off such a big win.

Baylor is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game.  Its only home loss this year came to Kansas by a single point 55-56.  Oklahoma State is just 2-5 in true road games this season.  It has lost to South Carolina by 26, Kansas by 10, Oklahoma by 17 and Kansas State by 10 in four of its five road losses.

Baylor is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Oklahoma State since 2007.  It has won its last eight home meetings by 6, 10, 41, 19, 13, 6, 8, and 4 points.  As you can see, each of the last seven wins came by 6 points or more, and by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The Bears are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Baylor.  The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Bears are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Oklahoma State is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

Due to owning the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, the Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are only 2-point road underdogs against one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Memphis Grizzlies today when it should be much higher.

Atlanta is overvalued due to going 17-0 in the month of January.  This is a team that has continued to win, but keep in mind that nine of its last 10 games have been at home.  The only road game during this stretch resulted in a 100-115 loss at New Orleans.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks, too.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season as they beat the Golden State Warriors 124-116 on Friday night.  The Warriors own the best record in the West, so it's only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown off such a huge win that they believe validated them.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, come into this game hungry for a victory after blowing a late lead on Friday to lose in Minnesota 89-90.  That was a rare loss for this team.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  That includes wins over the likes of the Suns (twice), Blazers, Raptors, Mavericks and Thunder.

Memphis has been playing its most suffocating defense of the season here of late.  It has allowed 94 or fewer points in eight of its last nine games overall, giving up an average of 86.3 points per game during this stretch.  Nothing is coming easy against this team, which features three of the best defenders at their positions in Mike Concey, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol.

Memphis is 21-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 14-5 against the East this season, including 8-1 at home.  Zach Randolph has averaged 20.1 points and 14.9 boards in his last eight home games.  Atlanta did beat Memphis 96-86 at home in their first meeting, but the Grizzlies were on the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and were without Randolph for most of it.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies will be out for revenge in this one.

Memphis is 73-48 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Michigan/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  They have gone 16-7 on the season to put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have done so behind one of the best offenses in the nation.

Indeed, the Hoosiers are putting up 80.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting this year, including 40.9% from 3-point range, which is a ridiculous percentage for a team.  Shooting the 3-ball is going to work to Indiana's advantage because their opponent plays zone defense.

Star freshman James Blackmon Jr. missed Indiana's last game against Wisconsin with an ankle injury.  He leads the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and is second in rebounding (5.2 rpg), so it was a big loss for them.  Blackmon Jr. is expected to return today.  I just do not believe the Michigan Wolverines have the firepower to keep up with the Hoosiers in this one.

Michigan is without two of its top three scorers in Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg) and Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 ppg).  Zak Irvin (13.2 ppg) is the only healthy Wolverine left who is averaging more than 6.2 points per game.  That's bad news for Michigan today as they are going to have to put up points to hang with the high-powered Hoosiers.

Indiana has been virtually unbeatable at home this season.  It is 13-1 inside Assembly Hall where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game.  It is 4-0 at home within the Big Ten with wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers.

Michigan did pretty well for a stretch there without LeVert, but it is also without Walton Jr. now, and this team is going to continue to struggle because they don't have the talent to make up for it.  They lost by 10 at Michigan State and then by 18 at home to Iowa last time out.  I believe more losses like that one to the Hawkeyes are going to be the norm for them going forward.

The Hoosiers have a big advantage in rest and preparation heading into this one.  They have had four days off since losing at Wisconsin 78-92 on Tuesday.  They will also be motivated or a win after losing three of their last four with all three losses coming on the road.  The Wolverines have only had two days of rest in between games since losing to Iowa 54-72 on Thursday.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Hoosiers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings with the Wolverines, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings.  The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Indiana Sunday.

20* Clippers/Thunder NBA on ABC GAME OF THE MONTH on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high with this total this afternoon between the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder.  Both teams will be inspired to get after it defensively because each is coming off losses due to poor performances defensively.

The Clippers lost at Toronto 107-123 last time out, while the Thunder lost to the Pelicans 113-116 at home.  These were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams, and I fully expect both head coach Doc Rivers and head coach Mark Brooks to let their teams know about how unacceptable they were.

The Clippers have allowed 100 or fewer points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Thunder have allowed 100 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  That just goes to show how uncharacteristic those defensive efforts really were as they were an aberration rather than a normality.

What stands out to me is that this has been a low-scoring series here of late in comparison to today's 210.5-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scored of 183, 202, 209 and 200 points.  That's an average of 198.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points less than today's posted total.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Clippers last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in Clippers last 30 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Clippers last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last five vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +15.5

At 16-6 on the season, including 12-1 at home, the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  At 7-16 on the season, including 1-9 on the road, the betting public wants nothing to do with the South Florida Bulls at this point in the season.  These perceptions have created a ton of line value for pouncing on the undervalued Bulls today.

This is an awful spot for Cincinnati.  It is coming off a huge upset road win at SMU on Thursday, winning 62-54 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Off such a big win, and with a big game at Temple on deck, the Bearcats are in a prime spot for a letdown here against lesser competition.  They won't be motivated at all to face South Florida.

Plus, the Bearcats are a tired, unprepared team for this game.  They played on Thursday, meaning that they have just one day of rest and preparation to get ready for the Bulls.  Meanwhile, South Florida last played on Wednesday, giving them two days to prepare for the Bearcats.  I know it's only one day extra, but on such a short turnaround, one day can be huge.

The Bulls have been pretty competitive this season, especially here of late, despite their poor record.  Each of their last four losses have come by 13 points or less as they've gone 3-1 ATS.  They lost at UConn by 13 as 14-point dogs, at home to SMU by 11 as 11.5-point dogs, at Tulsa by 7 as 14.5-point dogs, and at home against Temple by 13 as 7.5-point dogs in their last four games, respectively.  After playing that gauntlet of a schedule, they are certainly battle-tested and ready to face a team like Cincinnati tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less.  USF won 46-45 as 2-point home favorites in 2012, lost 53-61 (OT) as 12.5-point road dogs in 2013, lost 54-61 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013, and lost 45-50 as 15.5-point road dogs in 2014.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (CINCINNATI) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Florida is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last two years.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bulls are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing the Thunder in a home-and-home situation on Wednesday and Friday.

After losing to the Thunder 91-102 at home on Wednesday, the Pelicans came back with a huge 116-113 road win last night as Anthony Davis hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.  After such an emotional win over the team that's trailing them in the Western Conference standings, the Pelicans are in a clear letdown spot here tonight.

New Orleans will be extremely tired for this game tonight, while Chicago comes in well-rested and ready to go.  The Bulls last played on Wednesday, so they have had two days off in between games.  They also come in hungry for a win after dropping each of their last three games, all on the road to the Lakers, Suns and Rockets.

Chicago is one of the few teams that has actually played better on the road than at home this season.  It is 17-9 in all road games this year.  That includes recent road wins over the Mavericks and Warriors, who are two of the better teams in the Western Conference.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to New Orleans.  The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +13

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country this season.  Head coach Oliver Purnell finally has his players in place and an experienced bunch with four starters back from last year's team.

The Blue Deamons have gone a respectable 12-12 this season.  However, they have really stepped up their play in Big East action.  They are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in all Big East games this year.  They barely didn't cover in the two games they failed to do so, losing by 11 at Providence as 10-point dogs and by 13 to Villanova as 11.5-point dogs.

DePaul has beaten Marquette by 3 as 5-point home dogs, Xavier by 3 as 10.5-point home dogs, Creighton by 10 as 10-point road dogs, St. John's by 4 as 6-point home dogs, Seton Hall by 4 as 9.5-point road dogs, and Seton Hall by 13 as 3-point home dogs.  The Blue Demons have only lost one of their 11 Big East games by more than 13 points, which was a 17-point loss at Villanova as 21.5-point dogs.  That stat alone makes for a 10-1 system backing them pertaining to this 13-point spread.

Butler is a quality team at 17-6 on the season.  However, that record has been bolstered by several close wins this year.  In fact, eight of Butler's 10 Big East games have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Six of its last nine games have actually been decided by 4 points or less.  I look for this contest to go right down to the wire as well.

Home-court advantage meant nothing between these teams last year.  The road team went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  DePaul won at Butler (99-94, OT) as 9-point underdogs.  Butler returned the favor with a 79-46 road win in the rematch with the line set at a pick 'em.

The Blue Demons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this year.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Blue Demons.  Take DePaul Saturday.

20* Baylor/WVU Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -4

The West Virginia Mountaineers (18-4) are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They aren't getting the respect they deserve as only 4-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today.  I'll take advantage and back them at this short price in what I fully expect to be a blowout in favor of the home team.

The Mountaineers come into this game highly motivated for a victory following an ugly 52-71 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday.  Bob Huggins was not pleased with his team as he emptied his bench and 11 different players saw double-digit minutes.  I look for the starters to get the memo and to respond to Huggins in a big way today.

West Virginia is 8-2 at home this season where it outscoring teams by an average of 16.8 points per game.  The Mountaineers have a huge home-court advantage within the Big 12 because it's such a far trip for the road teams within the conference.  It has beaten the likes of Oklahoma (by 21, Texas Tech (by 19) and VA Tech (by 31) at home this year.  Its two home losses have come by a combined 3 points.

Baylor is also an improved team this year, but one that has done most of its damage at home.  The Bears are 13-1 at home compared to 3-3 in true road games.  They have lost to Oklahoma (by 10), Kansas State (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 11) on the road in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 on the road within the conference with their only win coming at lowly TCU (by 7).

Scott Drew is 9-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent as the coach of Baylor.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  WVU has also had an extra day to prepare for this game after last playing on Tuesday, while Baylor last played on Wednesday.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Rockets UNDER 202.5

At 27-22 on the season, the young Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this year.  The reason they have been so successful this season is because first-year head coach Jason Kidd has gotten his team to play defense, and he also has the luxury of having some freakishly lengthy athletes on his roster.

This may be the best defensive team the Bucks have ever had.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 98.7 points per 100 possessions.  The UNDER is 15-5 in Bucks' last 20 games overall.  They have allowed fewer than 100 points in 14 of their last 20 games, and 105 or fewer in all 20..

The Rockets are no slouches defensively, either.  In fact, they rank right behind Milwaukee in 3rd place in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Rockets' last five games overall as they have combined with four of their last five opponents for 193 points or fewer.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Friday nights are 204-125 (62%) since 1996.  Houston is 18-7 to the UNDER in its last 25 home games.  Milwaukee is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 games when playing on one days' rest.

Houston is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.  We're seeing an average of 187.3 combined points per game int his spot.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Timberwolves UNDER 195.5

I look for the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves to take part in a defensive battle tonight in Minnesota.  These teams have consistently played in low-scoring affairs in recent meetings, and I look for that trend to continue in this one.

Indeed, the UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in this series, including a PERFECT 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota dating back to 2011.  The Grizzlies and Timberwolves have combined for 195 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 meetings overall, which would be an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.5.

Memphis continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency this season despite having some key injuries to several of their best defenders throughout the course of the season.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are giving up just 85.9 points per game during this stretch.

Minnesota has had a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket here of late.  It has scored 94 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games overall.  It is scoring a woeful 91.3 points per game during this 10-game stretch.  The Timberwolves also rank 27th in offensive efficiency, averaging 99.0 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 103-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two years.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Grizzlies last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Hawks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 214.5

This is a battle between the top team in the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors up against the top team in the Eastern Conference in the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a highly-anticipated game to say the least, and when two great teams like this get together, defense usually wins out.

The biggest reason both of these teams sit atop the standings in their respective conferences is because of the way they play defense.  The Warriors rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks rank 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.0 points per 100 possessions.

The reason this number has been set so high is because both teams have played in some high-scoring affairs here of late.  The Warriors are 6-2 to the OVER in their last eight games overall, and they're coming off a 242-point effort with the Mavericks.  The Hawks are 5-1 to the OVER in their last six games overall.  These recent OVER streaks for both teams have forced oddsmakers to inflate this total, providing us with some excellent value to swoop in and back the UNDER.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings in comparison to this 214.5-point total.  The Warriors and Hawks have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1-1 during this stretch.  They have combined to average 190.6 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 41-18 in Warriors last 59 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic are highly motivated to put an end to their currently 10-game losing streak.  Nine of those 10 losses have come against playoff contenders, so the streak has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Magic finally get a break in their schedule tonight as they host the lowly Los Angeles Lakers.

Orlando has been playing some very good basketball here of late despite losing.  It went on the road and played Oklahoma City to a 97-104 game as 10.5-point underdogs.  It then went to San Antonio and only lost 103-110 as 13.5-point dogs last time out.

The Lakers haven't been playing any better than the Magic here of late.  They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-8 in its last eight road games with all eight losses coming by 4 points or more, including seven by 8 or more points.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  Not only are the Lakers without Kobe Bryant, they are also playing without starting center Jordan Hill.  Meanwhile, the Magic are pretty much at full strength health-wise.

The Lakers are 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog this season.  Los Angeles is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +3

The Dallas Mavericks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They are coming off a 114-128 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Mavericks blew an early 20-plus point lead as they were eventually blown out in the 4th quarter.

After playing the top team in the West last night, this is clearly a hangover spot for the Mavericks.  Plus, they'll be running on fumes.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are short-handed right now.  Their bench has no depth ever since trading for Rajon Rondo and sending Brandon Wright and Jae Crowder away.  Now, Rondo is out indefinitely with an injury.  The Mavericks as a whole just aren't going to have enough energy to put forth a very good effort tonight.

Yes, the Sacramento Kings aren't playing great coming in as they have lost nine of their last 10 games overall.  However, all nine of their losses have come against playoff contenders, including a 104-108 (OT) home loss to the Mavericks back on January 13th.  That sets the Kings up for a revenge spot here.

Yes, the Kings have lost five straight meetings with the Mavericks, but they have played them extremely tough in all five meetings.  They lost all five of those games by 8 points or less.  They lost by 4, 8, 2, 3, and 4 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  They've obviously proven they can play the Mavs tough, and given this horrible situation for Dallas, I look for the Kings to get over the hump and get a win in this series tonight.

Dallas is 5-14 ATS after allowing 105 or more points this season.  The Mavericks are 8-17 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this year.  Dallas is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -6.5

The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country.  They currently sit at 18-4 and are riding an eight-game winning streak that has seen seven of those eight victories by 9 points or more.  Their last loss was a 50-56 setback at tonight's opponent, Cincinnati, so the Mustangs won't be lacking any motivation as they'll be out for revenge.

SMU is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.3 points per game.  It is 9-1 within the conference, outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game.  This may be the best team in the AAC as it's a toss-up between the Mustangs and Tulsa.

Cincinnati is a quality squad at 15-6 on the year.  However, it has done most of its damage at home, where it is 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road, where the Bearcats are 2-4 in true road games.  They have lost three of their last four.  They lost by 6 at UConn as 4.5-point dogs, by 13 at Memphis as a pick 'em, and by 4 at East Carolina as 10.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last two seasons.  The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  SMU beat Cincinnati 76-55 at home last year as 4-point favorites.

The Bearcats are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Cincinnati is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games.  The Mustangs are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Plays against road of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1997.  SMU is 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last two seasons.  Take SMU Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +11.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-11) have gotten better as the season has gone on under head coach Jason Capel.  He had the luxury of returning four starters from last year's team, and this experience is finally starting to pay off in recent weeks.

Appalachian State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  All four wins were very impressive.  It beat Georgia State by 5 as 11.5-point home underdogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, South Alabama by 11 as 4-point home favorites, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road underdogs.

The reason the Mountaineers are catching so many points here is because they are coming off an ugly 37-point loss at Georgia Southern last time out.  Well, Georgia Southern is 9-0 at home this season, and that was simply as bad as the Mountaineers could play.  I look for them to get back to the way they were playing during their four-game winning streak prior against lesser competition tonight in Louisiana-Lafayette.

The Rajin' Cajuns are just 12-10 this season and have taken a big step back from last year after losing their star player to the NBA. While they did get off to a solid 10-5 start this year, it has been all downhill ever since.  Lafayette is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes home losses to South Alabama by 7 as 13-point favorites and Louisiana-Monroe by 2 as 7-point favorites.

Yes, Louisiana-Lafayette did beat Appalachian State by 16 on the road in the first meeting this season back on January 5th.  Well, that was back when the Rajin' Cajuns were playing solid basketball, while the Mountaineers were looking to find their footing.  I expect Appalachian State to be out for revenge in this one.

The Mountaineers have actually played their best basketball on the road this year.  They are a respectable 5-8 in true road games. They beat Virginia Tech by 2 as 18-point road dogs, beat Jacksonville by 11, only lost to Georgia Tech by 13 as 17-point road dogs, lost to Charlotte by 10 as 15-point road dogs, and played Alabama to a 1-point game as 18-point road dogs.  They also beat Arkansas State by 1 as 8-point road dogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road dogs.  If that's not evidence that this team has played well on the road, then I don't know what is.

Appalachian State is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog over the last three years.  Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 109-61 (64.1%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern +4

The Georgia Southern Eagles are arguably the most underrated team in the entire country.  This was the case for this program in football this past season, and it has carried over to their basketball team as well.

The Eagles are 15-4 this season with their only four losses coming to Illinois by 9 as 22.5-point road dogs, UCF by 2 as 4-point road dogs, Texas-Arlington by 1 as 4-point road dogs, and Troy by 4 as 5.5-point road favorites.  The Eagles are a sensational 11-1-2 ATS in their 14 lined games this season, which just goes to show how undervalued they have really been.

You may have noticed that all four of their losses have come on the road.  Well, the Eagles are a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  Not only are they winning, they are absolutely dominating.  They have outscored their nine opponents at home by an average of 23.3 points per game this year.

Georgia State is a quality team at 15-7 on the season, but it has been overvalued for much of the season, going just 9-12 ATS.  It has done most of its damage at home, where it is 9-1.  The Panthers are just 4-6 in true road games this year. 

They lost to Iowa State by 23 as 10-point dogs, to Colorado State by 10 as 6-point dogs, to Old Dominion by 4 as 3-point dogs, to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 17 as 4.5-point dogs, to Lafayette by 4 as 2.5-point favorites, and to Appalachian State by 5 as 11.5-point favorites.  Three of their four road wins have come by 6 points or less.

 Home-court advantage has been massive in this series in recent years.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings dating back to 2009.  Georgia Southern has upset Georgia State in its last two home meetings.  It won 68-64 in 2012 as 2-point underdogs, and 74-72 in 2010 as 5-point dogs.

Georgia State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.  Georgia Southern is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS when playing against  a team with a winning record this season.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Sun Belt foes.  Bet Georgia Southern Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +11.5

At 16-5 on the season, the LSU Tigers come into this game overvalued as 11.5-point home favorites over the Auburn Tigers (10-11).  I'll take advantage and back the road team as double-digit underdogs in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Auburn has been getting better as the season has gone on under first-year head coach, Bruce Pearl.  Yes, Auburn has lost four of its last five games coming in, but it has gone 3-2 ATS as all five games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 71-68 home win over South Carolina as 2.5-point dogs, a 55-57 road loss to Alabama as 11-point dogs, and a 63-71 road loss to Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs.

LSU is certainly improved this season, but with this improvement has come expectations from oddsmakers that I don't believe it can live up to tonight.  After all, seven of LSU's last eight games have been decided by 7 points or less, so it has consistently played in games that have gone right down to the wire, and I don't expect tonight to be any exception.

Not only has Auburn's last five games been decided by 10 points or less, and seven of LSU's last eight games been decided by 7 points or less, but this has been a closely-contested series as well.  Indeed, five of the last six meetings between LSU and Auburn have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The only exception was a 67-52 home win by Auburn in 2012.

Auburn is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with LSU, and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings.  Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight visits to LSU dating back to 2006.  Take Auburn Thursday.

25* Ohio Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee State +15.5

The Tennessee State Tigers are just 5-18 on the season.  They have also gone 0-12 on the road.  While that may be concerning, the fact of the matter is that this team is way undervalued right now because of its record, and has been for a couple weeks now.

Indeed, Tennessee State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It lost at SIU Edwardsville by 7 as 13-point underdogs, at Austin Peay by 1 as 11-point dogs, at Murray State by 19 as 22.5-point dogs and at home to Belmont by 8 as 13-point dogs.  It is coming off back-to-back home wins over Tennessee Tech by 8 as 7-point dogs, and Jacksonville State by 2 as 4-point dogs.

At 10-14 this season, Morehead State has no business being this heavily favored over Tennessee State tonight.  The Eagles have only won one of their last eight games by more than 13 points.  They have really struggled at home here of late.  Indeed, they are just 1-6 SU in their last seven home games overall. 

They lost to East Tennessee State by 4 as 6-points favorites, by 2 to Oakland as 6.5-point favorites, by 23 to Northern Kentucky, by 9 to Murray State as 3-point dogs, by 3 to Eastern Illinois as 6-point favorites, and by 9 to Eastern Kentucky as 1-point favorites.  Simply put, the Eagles have no home-court advantage this year.

Home court has meant little in this series as the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings.  Tennessee State went into Morehead State and came away with a 70-68 victory as 12-point underdogs last year.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Tennessee State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Tigers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  The Eagles are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Morehead State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  Tennessee State is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 9-0 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Bet Tennessee State Thursday.

15* Mavs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 217

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors.  Look for both teams to bring their "A" games defensively on this National TV stage as this game will be televised on ESPN.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings when comparing the results with the total sets.  The Mavericks and Warriors are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games overall.  The only exception was a 122-120 overtime win for Golden State in the final meeting of 2013-14 in a game that was tied 108-108 at the end of regulation.

Not counting overtime, the Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last 13 meetings.  They have combined for 203, 216, 193, 188, 202, 207, 197, 180, 198, 215, 198, 191 and 174 points in their last 13 meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 197.1 points per game in their last 13 meetings.

The Mavericks are playing without starting point guard Rajon Rondo right now.  They could also be without backup PG Devin Harris, who is questionable with an knee injury.  Their offense is going to have a hard time operating against a Golden State defense that ranks 1st in the league in efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

Dallas is 13-4 to the UNDER when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season.  Golden State is 23-11 to the UNDER In home games after a combined score of 205 or more points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Mavericks last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Mavericks last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190

The Memphis Grizzlies square off against the Utah Jazz tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  Both of these teams like to slow it down and play at below-average league paces, and that will help aid the UNDER tonight.

Utah ranks 28th in the league in pace, averaging just 92.9 possessions per game.  Memphis is just ahead of the Jazz at 26th in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.  It's no wonder that these teams usually play in low-scoring affairs when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Jazz and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 188, 178, 182, 198, 156, 174 and 185 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 180.1 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.  This 190-point total is also the second-highest total in the last seven meetings, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER here.

The Jazz have been a much better defensive team since giving underrated big man Rudy Gobert more playing time.  They have held 12 of their last 17 opponents to fewer than 100 points.  The Grizzlies have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 98 points or fewer.  They are giving up just 85.3 points per game in their last seven contests, which has coincided with the healthy return of defensive stopper Tony Allen.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after two straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls over the last two years.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Utah.  These five trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +4.5

The Air Force Falcons were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season due to the return of four starters from last year.  After a respectable 6-3 start, it has been all downhill for the Falcons as they currently sit at 9-12.

Well, the good news about their recent poor play is that it has created some excellent line value to back them tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs to the New Mexico Lobos.  The Falcons are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, but there's a good explanation for their recent poor play.

The Falcons have been without leading scorer Max Yon (15.3 PPG, 50.6% shooting) for each of their last six games due to personal reasons.  He is the only player on the Falcons averaging double-digits scoring, so it's no surprise that they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS without him.

Well, Yon is expected to return tonight, and he makes all the difference in the world for this team.  The first time they played New Mexico this season, they lost 48-60 in their first game without Yon on January 14th.  Having Yon back and playing at home this time around, I look for the Falcons to likely pull off the upset over the Lobos, but we'll take the 4.5 points for added insurance.

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball as its is 9-2 at home.  However, it has been a different story on the road.  The Lobos are just 5-5 in all road games this year.  Their last three road wins have come by a combined 10 points over New Mexico State, Utah State and UNLV, or by an average of 3.3 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Air Force and New Mexico dating back to 2012.  Look for this trend to extend to 7-0 after tonight.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Bucks UNDER 192.5

Quietly, the Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They certainly aren't doing it with offense as they average just 98.4 points per game on the year.  They have scored fewer than 100 points in 13 of their last 15 games overall.

The Bucks are winning because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 98.7 points per 100 possessions.  They have held 14 of their last 19 opponents to 95 or fewer points.  As a result, the UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks' last 19 games overall, yet the oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust.

The Lakers have really struggled offensively since losing Kobe Bryant to a season-ending injury.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the Lakers' last six games overall.  They have scored 92 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  They did score 123 in a double-OT win over Chicago, but that game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation.  Not counting overtime, the Lakers are averaging 87.0 points per game in their last six games.

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Lakers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Lakers last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Lakers last 17 road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -6

The Texas Longhorns are in major need of a victory tonight.  I look for them to come out highly motivated and to put away the Oklahoma State Cowboys by 7-plus points to cover this generous 6-point spread Wednesday.

Texas has lost three straight coming in, and at 14-7 on the season, it is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament without a big finish to the season.  Its last three losses have come at home to Kansas, and on the road to Iowa State and Baylor, so the schedule has as much to do with its recent struggles as anything.

The Longhorns return home tonight where they are 9-3 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  They take on an Oklahoma State team with an identical 14-7 record, but one that has done most of its damage at home, where it is 10-2.  It has been a much different story on the road for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Oklahoma State is 1-5 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game.  It has lost its last three road games in blowout fashion, all by double-digits.  It lost at Kansas by 10 as 7-point dogs, at Oklahoma by 17 as 6.5 points dogs, and at Kansas State by 10 as 2.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Texas and Oklahoma State.  In fact, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings with all seven victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Cowboys are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to Texas.  This will be a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well to add to the motivation after losing by 11 at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this year.

The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games as an underdog of 6 points or less.  The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Michigan -4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They still are getting no respect from the books as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Bowling Green Falcons tonight.

With five returning starters to work with, head coach Keno Davis has led the Chippewas to a 15-4 record this season.  What really stands out is how dominant they have been at home.  They are 12-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in home lines games this seaosn, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 24.1 points per game.

Bowling Green is a solid team at 13-6 SU and 12-3 ATS on the season.  The Falcons have been undervalued up until this point, but they are getting too much love from the books as only 4.5-point road dogs here.  After all, the Falcons are just 4-4 straight up on the road this season, which includes a 10-point loss to Western Kentucky and a 17-point loss to Akron.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the only exception being a 54-53 win by Central Michigan as 11.5-point road underdogs in 2012.  Otherwise, the home team has won the other four meetings by 5 points or more.  The Chippewas are 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Falcons.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have underachieved this season.  They returned all but one key player from last year's 27-win team.  Many expected them to run away with the MAC, but after a 13-8 start, that's not going to happen.  However, this slow start has created some nice value to back the Rockets going forward, especially tonight.

The Rockets are certainly better than their 13-8 record would indicate.  Unfortunately, they have come out on the short end of the stick in too many close games.  Seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less with the only exception being a 17-point loss at Duke as 20-point underdogs.  Five of their eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer.

Toledo has started to show signs of what it is capable of here recently.  It has won three straight, including an 80-69 road win at Northern Illinois last time out.  I look for this solid play to continue tonight against Eastern Michigan.

The Eagles are off to a solid 14-7 start this season, but they have done most of their damage at home, where they are 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road.  The Eagles are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 6.4 points per game.  Toledo is 8-3 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  In fact, the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Five of those six victories came by 8 points or more, including four by double-digits.  Toledo is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Eastern Michigan, winning by 15, 11, 11, 8 and 25 points.

Eastern Michigan is 0-8 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 25-50 ATS in their last 75 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  EMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Toledo.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Toledo Wednesday.