15* Angels/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-111)

The Los Angeles Angels are showing tremendous value on the run line today against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers are clearly overvalued here due to having Clayton Kershaw on the mound, and we'll take advantage.

Hector Santiago is having a fine season for the Angels and he's not getting the respect he deserves here.  The right-hander has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.253 WHIP over 79 innings pitched this year.  He is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kershaw is having another dominant campaign, but he has struggled recently against the Angels.  He is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA in his last three starts against the Angels, giving up 11 earned runs, three homers and 25 base runners over 21 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 0-9 against the run line (-12.2 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last two seasons.  Kershaw is 5-15 against the run line (-11.5 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Take the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +168

The Atlanta Braves are going to be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday when they open a two-game series with the Seattle Mariners.  They have lost six in a row coming into this one with four of the six losses coming by a single run.

"We've just got to turn this thing around," first baseman Freddie Freeman said. "We can't just keep saying, 'We'll get them tomorrow.' It has to be tomorrow, meaning Tuesday. We just have to relax and regroup. We're not out of this thing."

While Felix Hernandez is getting too much respect here, Atlanta's Alex Wood is not getting enough.  The left-hander has gone 7-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Hernandez gave up five runs and 13 base runners over 7 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Braves.  Freeman went 3-for-4 in the 5-3 win.

Atlanta is 73-41 (+30.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.  The Braves are 12-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 12-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better since 1997.  The Braves are 36-17 in their last 53 games following an off day.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight games as a favorite.  Roll with the Braves Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -116

Paul Goldschmidt will be out for the rest of the season for the Arizona Diamondbacks (49-63) with a broken left hand.  The 2013 NL MVP runner-up, Goldschmidt hit .300 and also led the team in most offensive categories, including homers (19), RBIs (69), walks (64) and on-base percentage (.396).

Getting an offense going that's missing its biggest piece going could be difficult against the Royals (57-53), whose pitchers have a 2.81 ERA while winning nine of 12. Kansas City was outscored 10-8 at Oakland over the weekend, but still took two of three from baseball's best team.  It is now just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the American League with plenty to play for.

Kansas City's Danny Duffy is having a fine season, but he is not getting a ton of run support.  The left-hander is 5-10 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 0.93 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in his last three.

That support should come tonight against Wade Miley, who is 7-7 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 23 starts for the Diamondbacks.  The left-hander has really struggled at home, going 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

The Royals are 29-11 in their last 40 games as a road favorite.  Kansas City is 4-0 in its last four interleague road games.  The Royals are 10-1 in Duffy's last 11 starts as a favorite.  The Diamondbacks are 3-14 in their last 17 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Arizona is 1-6 in Miley's last seven starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +135

Both the Chicago Cubs (47-63) and Colorado Rockies (44-67) have little to play for at this point.  However, it has been evident that the Cubs have not quit.  They have started to call up some of their prized prospects, and they have won five of their last seven coming in, including taking two out of three from the Dodgers on the road last series.

Colorado, meanwhile, has lost seven of its last eight games overall.  It is banged up right now playing without star SS Troy Tulowitzki and RF Michael Cuddyer.  Carlos Gonzalez has also been out, but he may return this series.  Brett Anderson has gone 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.847 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field this season.

Travis Wood clearly hasn't been as effective as he was last season, but now he faces a team that he has enjoyed plenty of success against in the past. Wood is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over four career starts against Colorado.  He struck out 11 in six innings of a 4-6 loss to the Rockies on July 30th.

Colorado is 5-18 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.  The Rockies are 7-23 (-16.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series. Chicago is 6-1 in Wood's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 16-43 in their last 59 overall.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Cincinnati Reds +107

Yes, the home team has won 12 straight in this in-state rivalry between the Reds and Indians.  Yes, Cincinnati has lost 10 in a row in Cleveland.  However, I look for both of those streaks to come to an emphatic end tonight due to the edge the Reds have on the mound.

Johnny Cueto is one of the best starters in the business.  He has gone 12-6 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three.  Cueto has never lost to Cleveland, going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five career starts.  The Reds are 5-0 in those five games.

Josh Tomlin is nowhere near on the level of Cueto.  The right-hander has gone 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over 14 starts and two relief appearances this year.  He has been terrible at home, going 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.363 WHIP in seven starts.  Tomlin is also 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati.

Tomlin is 0-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last three seasons.  The Reds are 76-32 in their last 108 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 40-16 in Cueto's last 56 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Indians are 0-4 in Tomlin's last four home starts.  Take the Reds Tuesday.

20* Tigers/Yankees ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Detroit -119

This is a great price for the Detroit Tigers (61-47), who clearly have the edge on the mound over the New York Yankees (57-53) on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball.  I'll gladly back reigning AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer over Brandon McCarthy today.

Scherzer is having another fine season, going 13-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 22 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three.  The right-hander has owned the Yankees, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Due to injuries in the rotation, the Yankees were basically forced to go out and trade for an arm.  They could have done a lot better than McCarthy, who has gone 6-10 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.362 WHIP over 22 starts this season in his time between Arizona and New York.

The Tigers are 43-12 in Scherzer's last 55 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 41-14 in Scherzer's last 55 starts overall.  The Yankees are 8-26 in their last 34 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* Bills/Giants NFL Preseason No-Brainer on Buffalo -1 (-120)

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

25* National League GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves +125

The Atlanta Braves are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five straight and will be highly motivated for a victory today.  I'll side with them at a tremendous price against the lowly San Diego Padres as my National League Game of the Year.

Aaron Harang has been a huge addition to the Braves' rotation this year.  The right-hander has gone 9-6 with a 3.43 ERA over 22 starts this season.  Harang is also 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts.

Harang is 6-5 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 16 career starts against San Diego.  He has been dominant in his last two starts against the Padres, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 14 1/3 shutout innings.

Atlanta is 12-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 2-5 in Ross' last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 73-40 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Bet the Braves Sunday.

25* NL Blowout GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves -107

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following four consecutive losses to open this west coast swing.  That includes last night's 1-10 setback in Game 1 of this series at San Diego.  Without a doubt, they will be playing with an extra sense of urgency tonight.

Ervin Santana is having a fine season for Atlanta.  The right-hander has gone 10-6 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in his last three.  Santana is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego.  He pitched eight shutout innings while striking out 11 in his last start against the Padres on July 28.

Ian Kennedy is having a solid season for San Diego as well, going 8-9 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.219 WHIP over 22 starts.  Kennedy has been at his worst at home, going 3-5 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 11 starts.  The right-hander sports a 3.79 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 22-6 (+15.5 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of its last 5 games over the last two seasons.  The Padres are 2-10 in Kennedy's last 12 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Braves are 5-1 in Santana's last six starts.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -104

The Tampa Bay Rays just traded away David Price right before the deadline.  Manager Joe Maddon is going to have a tough sell to his players to try and convince them that the front office hasn't given up on them.  They barely got anything back in return and were clear sellers and losers at the deadline.

The Los Angeles Angels (64-43) have the second-best record in baseball and they are chasing down the Oakland A's for the top spot in the AL West.  They have the best lineup in baseball, but they also have an underrated rotation that has seen some bright seasons out of the unexpected.

One of those is Matt Shoemaker, who has gone 8-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 11 starts and six relief appearances this year.  Shoemaker has been at his best as a starter, going 7-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 11 starts.  He is also 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in his last three starts.  He allowed one run and five base runners over six innings in a 6-2 victory on May 18th in his lone career start against Tampa Bay.

Jeremy Hellickson has been forced into the rotation for a couple spot starts this year.  He has gone 0-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in two starts.   Hellickson was absolutely atrocious in 2013, going 12-10 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.351 WHIP over 31 starts.  That's why he didn't have a job secured in the rotation this year, but now with Price gone, he almost certainly will be forced into it.

The Angels are 9-0 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Angels are 44-14 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 26-10 in its last 36 overall.  The Angels are 9-3 in Shoemaker's last 12 starts.  The Rays are 1-6 in their last seven as a home underdog.  Tampa is 2-7 in Hellickson's last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +1.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Both teams will be sending their aces to the mound in this one, and I look for this contest to have a high probability of being decided by one run either way, which is why I'm siding with the run line.

Julio Teheran is having an All-Star year, going 10-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.045 WHIP over 22 starts.  Sure, Clayton Kershaw has been even more dominant, but he is getting too much respect from the books here as a -200 favorite on the money line.

Kershaw is 1-0 in six career starts against Atlanta, only earning one decision.  Almost every game that he has started against the Braves has gone right down to the wire.  In fact, four of the six games were decided by exactly one run with the Dodgers winning two and the Braves winning two.

Kershaw is 9-23 against the run line (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 350-164 against the run line (+71.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Kershaw is 26-54 against the run line (-28.8 Units) in home games in night games for his career.  Take the Braves on the run line.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -114

After losing the first two games of this series to the Baltimore Orioles, the Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday to avoid the sweep.  You have to go all the way back to May 31 to June 2 to find the last time they lost three in a row.  That was also the last time they were swept in a series.

Tyler Skaggs has done a solid job this season in Los Angeles' rotation.  He has gone 5-5 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 17 starts.  Skaggs has been at his best away from home, going 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in eight road starts this year.

Bud Norris is having a similar season to Skaggs at 8-7 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 17 starts.  However, he is just 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in his last three starts.  While the Orioles have never faced Skaggs, the Angels just went up against Norris on July 21st, so they will have an advantage in this short turnaround.

Los Angeles is 25-10 in its last 35 games overall.  The Angels are 39-18 in their last 57 games as a favorite.  Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 in its last six during game 3 of a series.  The Angels are 10-4 in Skaggs' last 14 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -139

The New York Yankees (55-51) get the call Wednesday against the lowly Texas Rangers (42-65) tonight.  New York still has a lot to play for as it sits 2.5 games out of the final wild card spot and 4.5 games out of first place in the AL East.  The same cannot be said for the Rangers, who have the worst record in all of baseball.

The Yankees have a huge edge on the mound in this one to boot.  Hiroki Kuroda has gone 7-6 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.204 WHIP over 21 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last three starts.  The right-hander has owned Texas, going 2-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in five career starts against the Rangers.

Colby Lewis may be the worst starter in the big leagues this season.  The right-hander has gone 6-8 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.794 WHIP in 18 starts, 1-5 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-3 with a 10.54 ERA and 2.269 WHIP in his last three starts.  Lewis is also 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in six career starts against New York.

The Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  New York is 4-0 in Kuroda's last four starts as a favorite.  Texas is 14-39 in its last 53 games overall, including 7-20 in its last 27 home games.  The Rangers are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Texas is 3-24 in its last 27 games with a total set of 9.0-10.5.  The Rangers are 1-5 in Lewis' last six starts.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -133

The Tampa Bay Rays (52-54) have been the hottest team in baseball over the past couple months.  They have played themselves right back into the thick of the AL East race, and I look for them to add another win Tuesday night against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Alex Cobb has really turned it on as well.  He is now 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 15 starts this season after a slow start to the year.  Cobb has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including two or less in five of those.  He is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts.

Matt Garza is having a solid season for Milwaukee as well at 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.183 WHIP over 21 starts.  However, he has really struggled on the road this year, going 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in nine road starts.  Garza faced his former team last year, giving up six runs and 10 base runners over 4 1/3 innings of a 2-6 loss at Tampa Bay on September 16.

Tampa Bay is 21-6 (+15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Brewers are 15-39 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 21-6 in their last 27 games overall.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's -1.5 (-118)

The Oakland A's are a good bet almost every time you take them.  You save juice on the run line, which has been a very profitable move of late for the best team in baseball.  The A's have won four of their last five all by two-plus runs to get to 65-39 on the season.

Now, they play one of the worst teams in baseball in the Houston Astros (42-63) for the start of a new series Monday.  The Astros have lost five straight all by two-plus runs.  I look for that streak to extend to six straight tonight in Game 1 of this series.

Jesse Chavez has been one of the better starters in the game this season.  He has gone 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 20 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three.  Chavez is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Houston.  The A's have won all three of his starts against the Astros all by two-plus runs.

Brett Oberholtzer is one of the worst starters in the game.  He has gone 2-7 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.416 WHIP over 13 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.515 WHIP over six home starts this year.  Oberholtzer is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over four career starts against Oakland.

Houston is 5-17 against the run line (-14.4 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by an average of 4.1 runs/game in this spot.  The A's are 8-0 in Chavez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -1.5 (-123)

The Oakland A's get the call on the -1.5 run line Sunday against the lowly Texas Rangers.  This is the best team in baseball, and they not only have a huge edge at the plate, but also on the mound tonight.

Scott Kazmir has gone 11-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 20 starts this season.  The left-hander continues to kill it, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 in his last three starts.

Miles Mikolas has had a rough go of it in the big leagues this year.  He has gone 1-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.524 WHIP over four starts.  Mikolas has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 13.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two starts.

Kazmir is 31-8 (+15.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997.  Texas is 1-9 against the run line (-10.7 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  Kazmir is 6-0 against the run line (+6.8 Units) in road games after a win this season.  Kazmir is 15-4 against the run line (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals +114

Any time the Chicago Cubs are listed as a favorite, it's usually a good idea to look to fade them.  I'll do just that Saturday and back the St. Louis Cardinals as an underdog in a game they should be favored in.

The Cardinals will be highly motivated following four straight losses heading into this one.  Shelby Miller hasn't been at his best this season, but he's undervalued because of it.  Miller dominated in his lone career start against the Cubs, pitching five shutout innings to get the win in a 5-2 St. Louis victory.

Jake Arrieta is having one heck of a season for Chicago, but he is also overvalued because of it.  The Cubs don't have a lot to play for right now, and that's a big reason why they should not be favored in this contest.

St. Louis is 31-6 (+24.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 24-8 (+12.8 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 Saturday games.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +125

The Miami Marlins are one of the most underrated teams in baseball at 48-53 on the season.  Any time the Houston Astros (42-60) are favored, it's a wise move to look to fade them.  They remain one of the worst teams in baseball this year despite the fact that they are slightly improved, which isn't saying much.

Brad Hand certainly isn't an elite pitcher, but he has thrown like one of late.  Hand has gone 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just five earned runs over 17 1/3 innings.  In his lone career starts against Houston, he pitched seven shutout innings while allowing five base runners in a 5-0 win.

Dallas Keuchel is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is getting respect for his hot start to the season without factoring in what he has done of late.  Keuchel is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 2.220 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts overall.

The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  Miami is 5-1 in its last six interleague road games.  The Astros are 29-59 in their last 88 home games.  Houston is 18-42 in its last 60 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Astros are 1-5 in Kuechel's last six starts as a favorite.  Houston is 4-15 in Keuchel's last 19 starts when working on five days of rest.  Roll with the Marlins Friday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +156

What's great about the San Diego Padres is that they never quit.  They are playing some of their best baseball of the season of late, and I look for that to continue to be the case tonight.  They have won four of their last five games overall while scoring a combined 21 runs in their last two contests.

While they are hot at the plate, the real reason I'm backing San Diego tonight is the price coupled with the edge it has on the mound.  Jesse Hahn is the real deal, going 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.057 WHIP over seven starts with 47 K's in 40 2/3 innings.  Hahn is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three road starts as well.

Alex Wood has certainly had a solid season, going 7-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.156 WHIP over 12 starts and 11 relief appearances.  However, he is being overvalued here, as are the Atlanta Braves.  Atlanta has lost three of its last four heading into this one.

The Padres are 5-1 in Hahn's last six starts overall.  The Padres are 4-0 in Hahn's last four starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The Braves are 1-6 in Wood's last seven starts with four days of rest.  Atlanta is 1-4 in its last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  San Diego is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Atlanta.  Bet the Padres Friday.

20* Tigers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -113

The Detroit Tigers (56-42) and Los Angeles Angels (60-40) square off in a heavyweight showdown over the next four days.  I'm going to side with the home team Angels to take Game 1 of this series due to the way they have been playing of late and their edge on the mound.

Garrett Richards might be the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 11-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.028 WHIP over 20 starts, including 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.806 WHIP in his last three starts.  Max Scherzer (11-3, 3.34 ERA) has been dominant as well, but he is being overvalued here.

If Richards' numbers this season aren't enough to sway you, then his performances against Detroit will be.  Indeed, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two career starts against the Tigers.  Richards has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing nine base runners in those two starts against Detroit.

The Angels are 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games against AL Central opponents this season.  Richards is 13-1 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Los Angeles is 23-6 in Richards' last 29 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +104

I have been a big supporter of the Tampa Bay Rays this season ever since manager Joe Maddon declared that his team really believes they could come back and win the AL East.  They are doing their part, currently entering this game on a six-game winning streak that I believe will extend to seven after tonight.

The offense has come alive as the Rays have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, have scored four or fewer runs in each of their last five games.  Tampa has held each of its last six opponents to three runs or fewer.

Alex Cobb is having a solid season for Tampa Bay, going 5-6 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.249 WHIP over 14 starts.  He is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  This guy dominated the big leagues the previous two seasons, and I only look for him to get stronger as the season goes on.

Lance Lynn is very fortunate to be 11-6 with a 3.13 ERA on the season.  That is evidenced by his 1.309 WHIP, which is considered average to below average in the big leagues.  He walks too many batters, and the Rays are a very patient team that will capitalize on it tonight.

The Rays have been road warriors of late, going a sensational 14-2 in their last 16 road games.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Cobb's last four road starts.  Cobb is 12-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five interleague starts.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-105)

The Washington Nationals are in a battle with the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East.  They have won three straight and five of their last six to pull one game ahead of the Braves.  They are really hitting on all cylinders right now.

The Colorado Rockies are tied with the Texas Rangers for the worst record in baseball at 40-59.  They have lost six in a row and really seem to have packed it in.  Guys aren't willing to play through injury right now.  They are without Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, and they could be without fellow starters Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon tonight, who are both listed as questionable.

Jordan Zimmerman takes the ball for the Nationals.  The right-hander is having another brilliant season, going 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 19 starts.  Zimmerman is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in seven career starts against Colorado.

Yohan Flande is off to a rough start in limited action for the Rockies.  The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in three starts this season, yielding 12 earned runs and 25 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against Washington on June 30 as he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 3-7 loss.

Colorado is 23-43 against the run line (-26.3 Units) in July games over the last three seasons.  Zimmerman is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Nationals are winning 5.9 to 2.1 on average in this spot.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -142

The Colorado Rockies have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the past couple of months.  They have lost five straight to fall to 40-58 on the season.  They are without two of their best players in Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Cuddyer, while fellow starters Charlie Blackmon and Justin Morneau are questionable to play tonight.

Washington (53-43) is neck-and-neck with Atlanta (54-44) for first place in the NL East and has plenty to play for.  Doug Fister has proven to be an excellent addition to the rotation this year, going 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.069 WHIP over 12 starts.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

Pitching has been Colorado's downfall this year, and I look for that to continue to be the case tonight.  Franklin Morales has gone 5-4 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.523 WHIP over 13 starts and nine relief appearances this season.  He is 4-4 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.535 WHIP as a starter.

Colorado is 11-30 (-19.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.  The Nationals are 53-24 in their last 77 games as a road favorite.  Washington is 9-2 in Fister's last 11 starts.  The Rockies are 14-38 in their last 52 overall.  Colorado is 6-27 in its last 33 games following a loss.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +119

The Cincinnati Reds (51-47) are in 4th place in the NL Central, but they could be in first place by week's end.  That's because they are only 2.5 games behind both the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals for first.  This is a big series for them, and I look for them to take Game 1 tonight against the Brewers due to their edge on the mound.

When healthy, Mat Latos has been dominant in the big leagues.  That has been the case this year as well as he has gone 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.802 WHIP in six starts, including 1-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.450 WHIP in three road starts.  Latos is 3-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.  In two starts against the Brewers this year, he has allowed two earned runs and seven base runners over 14 innings.

Good pitching has helped Milwaukee hold on to first place in the NL Central for much of the season.  However, Wily Peralta has not been a big part of that.  He has gone 10-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.289 WHIP over 19 starts this year, 5-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 10 home starts, and 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three outings.  While he has been decent, he's certainly no match for Latos.

The Brewers are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall.  The Reds are 43-21 in Latos' last 64 starts overall.  Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last seven home games.  The Brewers are 0-4 in Peraltas last four starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Reds Monday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +162

The Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A's have a rivalry now after getting into a brawl earlier this season.  After blowout a save in Game 1, the Orioles came back with an 8-4 victory yesterday.  I look for them to win this series and take Game 3 Sunday at an excellent price.

Baltimore will be giving the ball to Kevin Gausman, who is 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.1252 WHIP over seven starts this year.  Two of those starts came on the road, where is is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 1.059 WHIP.

Sonny Gray is having a tremendous season for Oakland with a 2.79 ERA over 19 starts, but he is also overvalued as a result.  Plus, Gray is 0-2 with an 11.43 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Gausman is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in one career start against Oakland.

The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games overall.  Baltimore is 4-0 in its last four during Game 3 of a series.  The Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  Bet Baltimore Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles +133

The Baltimore Orioles suffered a painful loss last night as they were leading 4-2 before giving up three runs in the bottom of the 9th to lose 5-4.  I believe they redeem themselves at an excellent price in Game 2 of this series against the Oakland A's Saturday.

Wei-Yin Chen has been one of the more underrated starters in the game over the past few seasons.  He has gone 9-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.308 WHIP over 18 starts.  Chen is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP over four career starts against Oakland.

Jason Hammel has gone 8-6 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 18 starts this year.  He has overachieved to this point, and the A's traded for him as a result.  I look for him to have a poor second half in the AL.  Also, Hammel is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six career starts against Baltimore.

The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.  Baltimore is 16-6 in Chen's last 22 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Chen is 27-14 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* AL Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +153

The Baltimore Orioles are quietly having a great season.  They finished the first half 52-42 and currently lead the AL East by four games.  I look for them to continue their solid play in their first game out of the break and to beat the Oakland A's tonight.

Oakland is overvalued right now due to having the best record in baseball at 59-36.  It will come out of the break overconfident.  Jeff Samardzija is having a fine season, but he's also getting too much respect from the books here.

Chris Tillman is better than he is getting credit for.  The right-hander has gone 7-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 20 starts this season, and he hasn't lost a decision on the road, going 6-0.  Better yet, Tillman is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three career starts against Oakland, two of which came last year.

Tillman is 7-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.  Tillman is 7-0 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 20-6 in Tillman's last 26 starts as a road underdog.  Baltimore is 10-1 in Tillman's last 11 Friday starts.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -139

The Atlanta Braves had lost five of six prior to Saturday's 11-6 victory over the Chicago Cubs.  I look for them to go into the All-Star Break with some momentum by taking Game 3 and this series as they come in highly motivated to do so.

Julio Teheran is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, but that is only a small blip on what has been a fantastic season for the right-hander.  Indeed, Teheran is an All-Star due to his 8-6 record, 2.58 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 19 starts this year.  He is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago.

The Braves are a perfect 3-0 in Teheran's three career starts against the Cubs.  He'll be up against Travis Wood, who is 7-7 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  The left-hander has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 2.106 WHIP in his last three starts.

Wood is 5-18 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season for his career.  The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.  Atlanta is 16-5 in Teheran's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Chicago is 12-32 in its last 44 during game 3 of a series.  The Cubs are 26-54 in their last 80 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Chicago is 5-21 in its last 26 games with a total set of 6.5 or lower, including 0-6 in its last six home games with a total set of 6.5 or lower.  The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog.  Chicago is 9-27 in Wood's last 36 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -117

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Detroit Tigers.  I like their chances of getting Game 3 behind their ace on the mound.

James Shields is 9-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 10 batters in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Royals are 42-19 in their last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Kansas City is 21-7 in Shields' last 28 starts with 4 days of rest.  The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts overall.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals +126

Joe Kelly just does not seem to get the same respect as the rest of the St. Louis starters despite getting the job done almost every time he takes the mound.  He'll be up against a Milwaukee team that has lost nine of its last 10 games overall, and I like his chances of shutting the Brewers down tonight.

Kelly has been dominant in three starts this season, going 1-1 with a minuscule 0.59 ERA while allowing just one earned run over 15 1/3 innings.  Kelly has posted a 3.47 ERA in six career starts against the Brewers as well.  He is 16-13 with a 2.92 ERA in his three-year career in the big leagues with the Cardinals.

Yovani Gallardo got off to a hot start this season, but he has come back down to reality, going 5-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 18 starts in 2014. Gallardo fears facing St. Louis.  The right-hander is 1-12 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Cardinals.

St. Louis is 76-39 (+28.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 9-1 in Kelly's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Brewers are 3-13 in Gallardo's last 16 starts vs. St. Louis, including 0-7 in his last seven starts against the Cardinals.  St. Louis is 36-17 in the last 53 meetings in this series.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +110

The Miami Marlins have been one of the most underrated teams in the big leagues this season.  They have compiled a 44-47 record to this point, and they should not be an underdog in Game 1 of this series with New York (42-50) with the edge they have on the mound.

Henderson Alvarez is having a tremendous season, going 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 18 starts.  He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Alvarez owns New York, going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in six career starts against the Mets.

Zack Wheeler has been decent for New York, but he isn't on the same level as Alvarez.  The right-hander is 4-8 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in 18 starts this season, 1-4 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven home starts, and 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in his last three outings overall.

Alvarez is 8-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after giving up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings this season.  The Mets are 4-28 (-27.2 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  The Marlins are 7-0 in Alvarez's last 7 starts as an underdog.  Miami is 7-0 in Alvarez's last seven starts vs. NL East opponents.  Roll with the Marlins Friday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won six of their last seven games overall to get to 53-37 on the season.  The Texas Rangers are one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have lost 10 of their last 11 to fall to 38-53 on the year.

I look for the Angels to continue their momentum with Matt Shoemaker on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 7-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.334 WHIP over nine starts and six relief appearances in 2014.  He faced Texas on June 22nd, allowing just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings to get the victory in a 5-2 Los Angeles triumph.

Colby Lewis is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball and now goes up against one of the best lineups in the MLB.  Lewis has gone 6-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Rangers are 1-10 (-8.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 this season.  Texas is 0-8 in its last eight vs. AL West opponents.  Los Angeles is 7-0 in its last seven vs. AL West foes.  The Rangers are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  These three trends combine for a 32-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +103

Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals should not be an underdog today against the Baltimore Orioles.  The Nationals' lineup is back to full strength, and it's really paying off as evidenced by the fact that they have won eight of their last 10 games overall.

Gonzalez is having yet another great year in Washington, going 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 13 starts.  The left-hander has been untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has pitched 21 shutout innings during this stretch.

Wei-Yin Chen is no match for Gonzalez.  The left-hander has gone 8-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three.  Chen is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 2.036 WHIP in two career starts against Washington, yielding eight earned runs, three homers and 19 base runners over 9 1/3 innings.

Washington is hitting .280 and scoring 4.7 runs/game against southpaws this season, while Baltimore is hitting .261 and scoring 4.0 runs/game versus lefties.  Gonzalez is 27-8 (+17.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game over the last two seasons.  Washington is 27-12 in Gonzalez's last 39 road starts.  Roll with the Nationals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Giants +112

The San Francisco Giants lost the first two games of this series with Oakland.  They got a little bit of revenge yesterday with a 5-2 victory, and now I expect them to even the series by continuing their dominance at home in this in-state interleague rivalry.

Getting Tim Hudson as a home underdog is an absolute gift from oddsmakers here.  The veteran right-hander has gone 7-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Hudson is 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in nine home starts this year as well.

Scott Kazmir is having an equally fine season for the A's.  However, the left-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.  He has also struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 home meetings with the A's.  San Francisco is 9-1 in its last 10 during Game 4 of a series.  The Giants are 38-16 in their last 54 interleague home games.  The A's are 17-42 in their last 59 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oakland is 0-4 in its last four road games.  Take the Giants Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants +110

After losing the first two games of this series in Oakland, the San Francisco Giants return home highly motivated as they face the A's in two games at AT&T Park over the next two days.  In fact, they have five straight at home before the All-Star Break and want to go into it with some momentum.

Oakland is being overvalued here due to its six-game winning streak.  It traded for Jason Hammel, and he'll be making his first start in an A's uniform tonight.  I'll gladly fade him here as there is no question he has overachieved in the first half of the season with the Cubs.

Matt Cain is still one of the better starters in the game despite his shaky start this season.  He has been at his best at home, posting a 3.73 ERA and 1.073 WHIP over six starts.  Cain has dominated Oakland in his career, posting a 2.11 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in 10 starts against the A's.  In fact, he has allowed just four earned runs over 38 innings in his last five starts against them for a minuscule 0.95 ERA.

The A's are 17-41 in their last 58 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 26-8 in their last 34 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.  San Francisco is 37-16 in its last 53 interleague home games.  The A's are 2-12 in their last 14 meetings in San Francisco.  Bet the Giants Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -115

We are getting the St. Louis Cardinals at an excellent price tonight.  Rarely will you get to back them at home as this short of a favorite, but oddsmakers have given us a gift here Tuesday that we will gladly take advantage of.

Vance Worley is getting way too much respect from the books due to his 2.28 ERA over four starts this season.  This small sample size has come against four of the worst lineups in baseball in the Marlins, Cubs, Mets and Diamondbacks.  Remember, Worley went 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts for the Twins last year, so he's not just all of a sudden one of the best starters in the league.

Carlos Martinez is not getting enough credit for the job he has done this season, mainly because he is considered one of the worst starters in what is a dominant St. Louis rotation.  However, he has posted a 3.91 ERA in 53 innings this year.  As a starter, Martinez has gone 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four starts.

St. Louis is 40-16 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 134-277 in their last 411 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cardinals are 65-27 in their last 92 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  St. Louis is 4-0 in Martinez's last four starts.  The Cardinals are 72-34 in their last 106 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take St. Louis Tuesday.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -110

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Justin Verlander at this kind of price at home.  The right-hander struggled quite a bit in the early going, which has him undervalued right now.  He turned it on in the second half last year, and he appears to be doing the same in 2014.

Indeed, Verlander has gone 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up just six earned runs and 21 base runners over 19 innings while striking out 20 batters during this span.  He'll be motivated to help his team put an end to a three-game losing streak heading into tonight's contest.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is certainly having a solid season thus far, going 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 16 starts.  However, he doesn't face nearly as many potent lineups in the National League as the one he will see tonight.  Detroit has one of the best lineups in baseball, and I expect it to be a struggle for Ryu.

Los Angeles is 1-8 (-9.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons.  Verlander is 16-2 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in his career.

The Dodgers are 27-55 in their last 82 interleague road games.  Los Angeles is 26-58 in its last 84 interleague games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 57-19 in their last 76 interleague home games.  Detroit is 21-6 in Verlander's last 27 interleague starts.  The Tigers are 22-6 in their last 28 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet Detroit Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -106

At 43-45 on the season, the Miami Marlins won't be limping into the All-Star Break.  Instead, they want to use this final week before the break to try and get back above .500, and it starts with this series against Arizona.  The Diamondbacks (37-53) cannot wait for the break to get here and likely won't be motivated at all over this final week.

Miami has the edge on the mound in this one behind Tom Koehler, who is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 17 starts.  The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last three starts.  Koehler has faced the Diamondbacks once, which came last year as he allowed just one earned run and five base runners over six innings.

Chase Anderson is one of the many Arizona starters who have struggled this year.  He has gone 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in nine starts.  Anderson is 3-2 with a 4.45 ERA in five home starts, and 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in his last three outings overall.

The Diamondbacks are 16-33 in their last 49 home games.  Arizona is 13-29 in its last 42 during game 1 of a series.  The Diamondbacks are 10-27 in their last 37 Monday games.  Arizona is 1-8 in its last nine games following a win.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Anderson's last four starts.  Bet the Marlins Monday.

20* Rays/Tigers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -117

The Tampa Bay Rays have really stepped it up of late and believe that they can come back and win the AL East.  They have won seven of their last eight games overall, and they send their ace to the mound tonight to make it eight of nine.

Price is 7-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 18 starts this season, which including an MLB-leading 153 strikeouts.  He has gone 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in eight road starts.  The left-hander has really turned it on of late, going 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in his last three starts.

What really stands out to me is how dominant Price has been against tonight's opponent.  Indeed, the left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in five career starts against Detroit.  You won't find many starters who shut down this lineup as consistently as Price.

Price is 15-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  The Rays are 25-6 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in July games over the last two seasons.  The Rays are 39-17 in Price's last 56 starts as a road favorite.  Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -114

The New York Yankees are showing excellent value as a small road favorite today as they look to take three out of four in this series from the Minnesota Twins.  They have the edge on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to get it done at a high level this season.  He has gone 5-6 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 17 starts, 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA in eight road starts, and 1-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts.

Ricky Nolasco has had a terrible season in his first year with the Minnesota Twins.  The right-hander has gone 5-6 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 17 starts.  He hasn't been able to reverse his fortunes of late, either, going 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in his last three outings.

Minnesota is 4-19 (-14.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.  The Yankees are 12-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.  New York is 8-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Yankees are 39-14 in their last 53 meetings with the Twins.  Take the Yankees Sunday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks +140

The Atlanta Braves are way overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak heading into Game 2 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Aaron Harang has no business being this heavy of a favorite today.

Harang has gone 7-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 17 starts this season, and he's way past his prime.  He has really struggled of late, going 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.056 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 37 base runners over 18 innings during this stretch.

Mike Bolsinger has held his own in limited action for the Diamondbacks.  The right-hander has gone 1-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.303 WHIP as a starter this year in seven outings.  He has shined in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over 20 innings of work.

Harang is 1-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 10-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +161

The Philadelphia Phillies get the nod as a massive road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates today.  Edinson Volquez, who has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues over the last few seasons, has no business being this heavily favored.

Volquez went 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA in 2011, 11-11 with a 4.14 ERA in 2012, and 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA in 2013.  He is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA thus far in 2014, which has been a bit of an aberration.  Volquez is 59-58 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 170 starts and six relief appearances in his career.

David Buchanan hasn't been spectacular, but he has held his own in eight starts this season, going 4-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.381 WHIP.  Buchanan has really stepped it up of late, going 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts.  That includes one start at St. Louis where he allowed one earned run over 7 2/3 innings of a 4-1 Arizona victory.

Pittsburgh is a woeful 46-50 (-33.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.  The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Pirates are 1-5 in Volquez's last six starts during game 2 of a series.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

15* NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory Friday when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this series.  They were just swept by the Padres last series, which leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues this year, and he still isn't getting the respect he deserves.  Simon has gone 10-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in his last three.

Kyle Lohse has been solid this year for the Brewers, going 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 17 starts.  He has been at his worst away from home, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 10 starts.

Simon is 7-0 (+7.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.  Simon is 12-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season.  Simon is 14-1 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.  These three trends combine for a 33-1 system backing Cincinnati.  Take the Reds Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -113

After dropping six of their last seven games overall, the San Francisco Giants head into this series with the San Diego Padres highly motivated for a victory.  I look for them to get the job done tonight due to that hunger, coupled with the edge they have on the mound.

Matt Cain is not having his best year, but he is very unlucky to have a 4.62 ERA on the despite despite a very solid 1.231 WHIP.  Cain sports a 3.19 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 33 career starts against the Padres, who are hitting just .214 and scoring 3.0 runs per game this season.

Hands down, Eric Stults has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  The left-hander has gone 2-11 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in 17 starts.  Stults has posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 17 career starts against San Francisco.  In his last start against the Giants on April 29, he allowed five earned runs over 2 2/3 innings of a 5-0 loss.

San Francisco is 18-1 (+17.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 0-6 in Stults' last six starts.  These two trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Giants.  Bet San Francisco Friday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays +168

The Tampa Bay Rays legitimately feel like they can still win the AL East despite being 11 games below .500.  After taking three out of four from Baltimore on the road, the Rays managed to sweep the Yankees in three games on the road last series.

This team really does have the belief that they can do it, which stems from manager Joe Maddon.  Erik Bedard gets the ball tonight.  The veteran left-hander has posted a respectable 4.21 ERA in 14 starts and one relief appearance this year.  Bedard is 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in his last five starts against Detroit.

Max Scherzer is having another solid season for Detroit, going 9-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 17 starts.  However, he hasn't been nearly as dominant as last year, and he has struggled of late.  Indeed, Scherzer is 1-1 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay is 23-5 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in July games over the last two seasons.  The Rays are 4-1 in Bedard's last five starts overall.  I look for them to continue their momentum with another win tonight in Game 1 of this series at an excellent price.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Reds -128

After losing the first two games of this series, the Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight.  They send their ace to the mound to get the job done, and I'll gladly lay this small price for one of the best starters in the game.

Johnny Cueto has gone 8-5 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in eight road starts.  In his last start against the Padres on May 15th of this year, Cueto pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only five base runners in a 5-0 Cincinnati victory.

Tyson Ross is also having a solid season for San Diego, but he's no match for Cueto.  He has gone 6-8 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Ross has struggled a bit of late, going 0-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The Reds are 21-5 in Cueto's last 26 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Reds are 39-14 in Cueto's last 53 starts as a favorite.  The Padres are 0-5 in Ross' last 5 starts.  Ross is 3-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last three seasons.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -106

The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight.  The Reds had won five straight and eight of nine prior to a 1-0 loss at San Diego in Game 1 despite giving up just one measly hit the entire game.

The light-hitting Padres are setting records for attrition of late.  They are hitting just .210 and scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season.  They are hitting .115 with five runs scored over a 2-3 stretch.  San Diego has scored 20 runs while hitting .173 in its last 10 home games.

The Reds starting staff's .229 opponent average on the season is the lowest in baseball, while their 3.24 ERA ranks second.  Mike Leake (6-6, 3.41 ERA, 1.145 WHIP) gets the ball tonight.  The right-hander has posted a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts against San Diego, yielding just two earned runs and 18 base runners over 22 innings.

Ian Kennedy has not pitched all that well for San Diego this year, going 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 17 starts.  He is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in his last three outings as well.  Kennedy faced the Reds on May 15th this year, yielding five earned runs and 12 base runners in six innings to take the loss in a 5-0 defeat.

The Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in Leake's last four road starts.  The Padres are 5-12 in their last 17 games following a win.  San Diego is 1-11 in Kennedy's last 12 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Marlins UNDER 7.5 (-111)

Miami plays in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the big leagues.  I look for these two light-hitting teams to struggle to score runs today against two of the more underrated starters in the big leagues.  The end result will be a low-scoring, pitcher's duel.

Philadelphia has scored three runs or fewer in eight of its last 10 games.  Its struggles at the plate will likely continue against Henderson Alvarez, who has gone 5-3 with a 2.32 ERA in 16 starts for the Marlins.  Alvarez is 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA in eight home starts to boot.  The right-hander is also 1-1 with a 2.02 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia.

A.J. Burnett continues to get it done since his shift to the National League a couple years ago.  The right-hander has gone 5-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 17 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 2.62 ERA in his last three.  Burnett has gone 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts against Miami as well.

Miami is 19-4 UNDER (+14.2 Units) vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.   The UNDER is 4-0 in Burnett's last four starts overall.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Phillies last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Alvarez's last five home starts.  The UNDER is 8-2-4 in Alvarez's last 14 starts vs. NL East foes.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Miami.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +121

Great value here with the Arizona Diamondbacks as a road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of this series.  They should not be the dog tonight given the edge they will have on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Wade Miley has been at his best on the road this year, going 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in eight starts away from home.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in four career starts against the Pirates, who are hitting .247 and scoring 3.7 runs per game against southpaws in 2014.

Jeff Locke is getting too much respect from the books here.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in five starts, including 0-1 with a 4.42 ERA in three home starts this year.  Locke has faced the Diamondbacks once in his career, and it was not pretty.  He gave up eight earned runs and 13 base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 5-15 home loss to Arizona on August 17th of last year.

Pittsburgh is 1-10 (-9.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more HR's/start this season.  The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Mileys last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 7-2 in Miley's last nine starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Pirates are 1-5 in Locke's last six starts as a favorite.  Pittsburgh is 0-4 in its last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -119

The Kansas City Royals get the call Monday as a small road favorite over the Minnesota Twins.  They just cooled off one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Angels by taking two out of three last series, and now I look for them to take Game 1 of this series tonight.

Danny Duffy is one of the best young starters in the game.  The left-hander has gone 4-7 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.075 WHIP over 10 starts and six relief appearances this season.  He has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in five road starts, and a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Minnesota gives the ball to the little-known Yohan Pino, who has gone 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in two starts this season.  Duffy has posted a 2.93 ERA in three career starts against Minnesota.  In his only road start against the Twins, Duffy pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings to get the victory in an 8-1 win last year.

The Twins are 3-20 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 7-0 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Duffy's last five road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 29-74 in its last 103 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado Rockies +161

The Colorado Rockies are showing excellent value Sunday.  I'll take advantage and back them against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers are off to a great start this season, but they clearly aren't as good as their record, and that will show in the second half.

Yovani Gallardo is also just an average starter who is getting too much respect from the books.  He has gone 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  However, Gallardo is 0-4 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.717 WHIP in eight career starts against Colorado.  Obviously, he has never beaten them.

Jorge De La Rosa has not put up great numbers this year, going 7-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 15 starts and one relief appearance.  But I like his chances today against the Brewers, who are in line for a letdown after winning the first three games of this series.

De La Rosa is 19-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.  De La Rosa is 10-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.  De La Rosa is 19-2 (+18.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Rockies Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -127 (Game 2)

I'll back the Chicago Cubs at an excellent price in Game 2 of this series Saturday.  They take on the Washington Nationals, and regardless of what happens in Game 1 they are certainly worth playing in Game 2.

That's because they send out their ace in Jeff Samardzija, who is 2-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-3 with a 1.63 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in eight home starts.  Samardzija is 2-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in four career starts against Washington as well.

While the Nationals do have a solid line-up, they are being put behind the eight ball tonight with Blake Treinen on the mound.  He is overvalued due to his 2.08 ERA on the season because his 1.452 WHIP does not match up.  Treinen has simply been lucky to not allow many earned runs with how many guys he is putting on base.

The Nationals are 17-40 in their last 57 games as a road underdog.  Washington is 0-4 in Treinen's last four starts.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 5-1 in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs in Game 2 Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +130

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.  They are showing excellent value here as a +130 underdog, and we'll take advantage.

Carlos Martinez doesn't get the credit of the rest of the Cardinals starters, but he has held his own this year, going 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.259 WHIP.  That includes a 1-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP over the two starts that he has made this season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been dominant for the Dodgers on the road this year, but it has been a completely different story at home.  Indeed, Ryu is 3-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six home starts in 2014.

St. Louis is a sensational 30-5 (+24.4 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-8 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.  The Dodgers are 10-23 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -153

Rarely do I lay this big of juice in baseball, but the Detroit Tigers are more than worth it tonight.  They should be at least a -200 favorite against the Houston Astros.  They come in playing their best baseball of the season having won seven straight while scoring at least five runs in each of their last six victories.

Justin Verlander is undervalued due to his slow start, but he allowed just one earned run and five base runners over seven innings in his last start against Cleveland, and I have no doubt he's going to be one of the best starters in the game from now through the end of the season.  Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.

Brad Peacock is no match for Verlander.  He has gone 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.530 WHIP over 10 starts and four relief appearances in 2014.  Peacock is also 2-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in seven home starts this year.  He will have his hands full with this red-hot Detroit lineup.

Detroit is 8-0 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 after allowing one run or less this season.  Detroit is 7-0 in its last seven road games.  The Astros are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Cardinals/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -116

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing excellent value tonight with ace Adam Wainwright on the mound.  Rarely will you get him at this kind of price, and we'll take advantage in Game 1 of this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Wainwright is one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award this season.  The right-hander has gone 10-3 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 15 starts, including 6-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in nine road starts.  Wainwright has also posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 12 career starts against Los Angeles.

Josh Beckett is having a career resurrection this year, but let's be honest, he's past his prime and it's an aberration up to this point.  He posted a 4.65 ERA in 2012 and a 5.19 ERA in 2013 prior to his 2.28 ERA thus far in 2014.  Beckett has gone 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 22-6 (+16.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 42-18 in Wainwright's last 60 starts.  St. Louis is 40-15 in Wainwright's last 55 starts as a favorite, including 20-6 in his last 26 starts as a road favorite.

The Dodgers are 2-10 in Beckett's last 12 starts during game 1 of a series.  Los Angeles is 1-7 in Beckett's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Dodgers are 7-15 in Beckett's last 22 starts overall.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -101

Off four straight losses, the New York Yankees will be highly motivated for a victory when they take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 of this series Wednesday.  I look for them to put an end to this skid and avoid the sweep due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Hiroki Kuroda has gone 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  The right-hander has been at his best on the road, posting a 3.70 ERA in seven starts away from home.  Kuroda is 4-3 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in eight career starts against Toronto as well.

Drew Hutchison has been solid on the road this season, but he's 1-3 with an 8.73 ERA and 1.893 WHIP in five home starts.  In two starts against the Yankees in 2014, Hutchison has gone 0-2 with an 11.73 ERA, allowing 10 earned runs and 17 base runners over 7 2/3 innings.

New York is 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.  The Yankees are 46-19 in their last 65 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.  Toronto is 0-5 in Hutchison's last five starts during game 3 of a series.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -104

The St. Louis Cardinals have won three straight and eight of their last 11 overall to make up some serious ground on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central Division.  Meanwhile, the Rockies have lost seven in a row after falling 0-8 to the Cardinals last night.  They have given up a combined 54 runs during this seven-game skid.

The pitching woes are likely to continue for the Rockies tonight with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 6-6 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.351 WHIP this season, including 0-2 with a 10.81 ERA and 2.230 WHIP in his last three starts.  De La Rosa has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in eight career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals give the ball to Shelby Miller, who has been at his best on the road this season.  Indeed, the right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in seven road starts, and he's 1-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Miller pitched a one-hit shutout while striking out 13 in his lone career start against Colorado last season.

The Rockies are 1-10 (-10.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games this season.  Colorado is 7-20 in its last 27 vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rockies are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 18-7 in its last 25 meetings with Colorado.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +104

The Washington Nationals should not be an underdog in this contest against the Milwaukee Brewers.  They have won three straight behind dominant pitching, allowing just one run in their last three games overall.  They have the edge on the mound in this one as well.

Since he entered the league, Jordan Zimmerman has been one of the most underrated starters in the game.  The right-hander has gone 5-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 15 starts this season, 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in six road starts, and 1-2 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.583 WHIP in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo has had a nice season for the Brewers at 5-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 15 starts.  However, Gallardo is 3-3 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.569 WHIP in eight career starts against Washington.  He has yielded 17 earned runs over 13 innings in his last three starts against the Nationals.

Meanwhile, Zimmerman is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.  He has never lost to the Brewers, and I look for him to improve to 5-0 with another strong performance tonight.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -106

The Detroit Tigers have won four in a row coming into this one, and I look for them to make it five straight due to their edge on the mound and at the plate tonight.  The Texas Rangers have dropped five straight, scoring a combined nine runs in their last four.

Drew Smyly is showing why he deserves a spot in this loaded Detroit rotation long-term.  The left-hander has gone 3-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 11 starts and three relief appearances this year.  He is also 1-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three starts.

Colby Lewis is one of the worst starters in baseball in 2014.  He has gone 5-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.863 WHIP in 12 starts, 1-3 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.945 WHIP in six home starts, and 1-0 with a 7.63 ERA and 2.153 WHIP in his last three outings.  Lewis is also 3-3 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in eight career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  Detroit is 11-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.  The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

20* AL Monday ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -115

After getting swept in four games by the Twins for their eighth loss in their last 10 games, there's no question the Chicago White Sox come into Game 1 of this series with Baltimore highly motivated.  They turn to their ace tonight to get them back on track.

Chris Sale has cemented himself as one of the top starters in baseball already in his young career.  The left-hander has gone 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.750 WHIP with 75 strikeouts over 65 1/3 innings in 10 starts this season.

Wei-Yin Chen is having a solid season for Baltimore as well, going 7-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.236 WHIP.  However, I look for the Orioles to have a big letdown tonight after beating Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees yesterday on the road by a final of 8-0.  They were a +190 dog in that contest.

The White Sox are 9-1 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after having lost four of their last five games this season.  Baltimore is 1-8 (-7.8 Units) against the money line in home games after having won three of its last four games this season.  Chicago is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 Monday starts.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the White Sox Monday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +136

The Chicago White Sox are showing solid value today as a big road underdog to the Minnesota Twins.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid getting swept by their AL Central rivals after dropping the first three games of this series by a combined four runs.

John Danks has proven he's fully recovered from injury this season.  He has gone 6-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 14 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts.  He has beaten the Dodgers, Tigers and Giants in his last three starts, which are three of the best teams in baseball.

Phil Hughes is getting way too much respect from the books due to his fast start this season for the Twins after pitching horribly in New York prior.  Hughes has been at his worst on the road this year, going 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA.  He gave up four earned runs and two homers over five innings in his lone start against the White Sox this season on April 3rd.

The Twins are hitting just .238 against left-handed starters this season.  The White Sox are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 4 of a series.  Minnesota is 5-11 in its last 16 games as a home favorite.  Bet the White Sox Sunday.

20* AL Saturday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Tigers +112

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Justin Verlander as an underdog.  Off back-to-back terrible starts, we are getting him at a tremendous price here.  Look for Verlander to come out extra motivated tonight due to all the negative media coverage stemming from his struggles.

Verlander is a fierce competitor, and he's not one to fold when times are tough.  The right-hander has gone 18-15 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 37 career starts against Cleveland.  He has allowed just six earned runs over 26 innings in his last four starts against the Indians for a 2.08 ERA.

Trevor Bauer has no business being the favorite against Verlander, especially with the way he has pitched this season.  Bauer has hardly posted better numbers than Verlander, going 2-3 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in seven starts.  He is nowhere near the caliber of pitcher as Detroit's ace.

The Tigers are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog.  Detroit is 6-2 in Verlander's last eight road starts.  The Indians are 0-6 in their last six vs. AL Central opponents.  Detroit is 16-6 in its last 22 meetings with Cleveland, and 10-4 in its last 14 road meetings.  The Tigers are 15-7 in Verlander's last 22 starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

The Kansas City Royals finally had their 10-game winning streak come to an end Thursday with a 2-1 loss in Detroit.  It was the franchise's longest winning streak in 20 years, and it's only human nature for these players to suffer an emotional letdown in the game following the loss that put an end to the streak.

Helping me prove that theory is the fact that the Seattle Mariners send one of the best starters in the league to the mound tonight.  Hisashi Iwakuma is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and he has been over the last few years.

Iwakuma is at it again in 2014, going 5-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in nine starts, 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in three road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in his last three starts overall. 

Iwakuma is also 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.563 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City, pitching 16 shutout innings while yielding only nine base runners.  James Shields hast posted a 4.15 ERA and 1.847 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Shields is also 1-2 with a 6.68 ERA in his last five starts against Seattle, giving up 23 earned runs in 31 innings.

Seattle is 7-0 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.  The Mariners are 11-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.  Take Seattle Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers +138

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Detroit Tigers at this kind of price all season.  I'll take advantage Friday night and back them as +138 dogs to the Cleveland Indians.  Without question, the Tigers are still one of the favorites to win the World Series.

Rick Porcello is having a breakout year for the Tigers, going 8-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 13 starts.  The right-hander is also 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.287 WHIP in 19 career starts against Cleveland.  Porcello went 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts against Cleveland in 2013.

Corey Kluber has pitched well this season for Cleveland, but he's 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in his last three starts.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit as well.

Porcello is 21-6 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 9-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base this season. 

Detroit is 20-7 in Porcello's last 27 starts overall.  The Tigers are 39-14 in Porcello's last 53 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  The Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 0-5 in their last five vs. AL Central foes.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Red Sox/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +150

The Boston Red Sox appear to have turned it around.  They just swept the Minnesota Twins at home thanks to back-to-back home runs in extra innings last night to secure a 2-1 walk-off victory.  I look for them to carry that momentum into Oakland tonight.

Boston will be sending Jake Peavy to the mound in this one, and we're getting him at a great price.  Peavy hasn't been at his best this year, posting a 4.53 ERA, but he did give up just one earned run over six innings last time out.  The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in two career starts against Oakland.

Scott Kazmir is off to a brilliant start this season for the A's, but with that comes lofty expectations.  As a result, he is overvalued as a massive favorite against the defending champion Red Sox here.  Kazmir is 8-8 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 29 career starts against Boston.

Boston is 31-13 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 14-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a game where they had four or less hits over the last two seasons.  Bet the Red Sox at a tremendous price Thursday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds -125

The Cincinnati Reds should be a much bigger favorite tonight due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.  They also aren't getting the respect they deserve because they are 33-35 on the year, but they have been bitten by injuries.  Now healthy, look for this team to go on a nice run.

That has certainly been the case of late as the Reds have won four of their last five games overall coming into this one.  Now they send ace Johnny Cueto to the mound as he looks to add to another impressive season in 2014.

Indeed, the right-hander has gone 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.775 WHIP through 14 starts this season while striking out 109 batters over 102 innings.  Cueto is 15-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in 24 career starts against Pittsburgh.  In two starts against the Pirates in 2014, he has allowed one earned run over 18 innings.

Brandon Cumpton is nowhere near on the same level as Cueto.  The right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.530 WHIP over six starts this season.  In his last three starts, Cumpton has posted a 9.64 ERA and 2.143 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs and 30 base runners in 14 innings.

The Reds are 37-14 in Cueto's last 51 starts as a favorite.  Cincinnati is 5-1 in its last six road games.  The Reds are 5-1 in Cueto's last six road starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Cincinnati is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.  The Reds are 10-4 in Cueto's last 14 starts against the Pirates.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Tigers UNDER 8 (-110)

After combining for 19 runs last night in an 11-8 Kansas City victory in Game 1 of this series, oddsmakers have inflated this total set in Game 2 Tuesday.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I foresee being an absolute pitcher's duel.

Yordano Ventura has been brilliant this season, going 4-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.237 WHIP through 12 starts for the Royals.  The right-hander has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in four starts away from home.

2013 AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has been dominant once again in 2014.  The right-hander has gone 8-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 14 starts, and 5-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in six home starts.  Scherzer is also 9-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 18 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 56-29 UNDER (+22.3 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 50-29 UNDER (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Scherzer's last eight starts vs. Kansas City.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -107

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Jered Weaver at this kind of price.  We are getting him at nearly even money Monday in Game 1 of this series with the Cleveland Indians, and we'll take advantage.

Weaver has been solid once again this season, going 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 14 starts.  The right-hander is also 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 17 career starts against Cleveland.

Trevor Bauer was one of Cleveland's hottest prospects in the minors, but he has yet to live up to expectations.  The young right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.324 WHIP over six starts this season.

Cleveland is 4-15 (-10.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.  The Angels are 52-19 in Weaver's last 71 starts as a favorite.  Los Angeles is 20-8 in its last 28 games following a loss.  The Angels are 5-1 in Weaver's last six road starts against the Indians.  Bet the Angels Monday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels +127

Great value here on the Los Angeles Angels (37-30), who are much better than they get credit for this season.  They should not be an underdog in this contest against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.

Mike Minor is getting way too much respect from the books here.  The left-hander has gone 2-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in his last three.  He gave up eight earned runs last time out at Colorado.

Hector Santiago is still searching for his first win of the season, which has him undervalued here.  He has pitched decently, posting a 4.15 ERA over 43 1/3 innings in 2014.  That would normally warrant at least one win, and I look for him to get on the board here.

Atlanta is 1-9 in Minor's last 10 interleague starts.  The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight interleague games.  The Angels are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games.  Los Angeles is 44-20 in its last 64 interleague road games.  The Angels are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Angels Sunday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

While the Miami Heat have been atrocious the past two games, I believe this line is inflated because of it.  With their season at stake, I look for the Heat to fight until the end tonight and to stay within 5.5 points of the Spurs, possibly pulling off the upset.

This is a veteran Heat team that is prepared better than any other team in the league for this win-or-go-home situation.  Look for Lebron James and company to put together a game plan that will give them an excellent chance to win this Game 5 and send the series back to Miami.

Miami is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 24-9 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rays/Astros UNDER 8 (-114)

Today's match-up between Tampa Bay and Houston features two of the lightest-hitting teams in baseball.  Tampa Bay is hitting .243 and scoring 3.6 runs per game this season, including 3.0 RPG on the road.  Houston is hitting .239 and scoring 3.9 runs per game, including 3.8 RPG at home.

Chris Archer has quietly had a very solid season for Tampa Bay.  He has gone 3-3 with a 3.42 ERA, including 0-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts.  Archer is also 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two career starts against Houston, giving up two earned runs and 10 base runners in 15 innings.

Jared Cosart is pretty much picking up right where he left off last season.  The right-hander has gone 5-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA in his last three outings.  Cosart pitched eight shutout innings to earn the win in a 2-1 victory in his lone career start against Tampa Bay on July 12, 2013.

Archer is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in June games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Rays last seven road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Archer's last five starts overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Astros last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Astros UNDER 8 (-115)

The books have set the bar too high in Game 1 of this series in a battle between two light-hitting teams.  Tampa Bay is scoring just 3.6 runs per game on the season, and 2.9 runs per game in road games.  Houston is putting up 3.9 runs per game on the year.

Alex Cobb is just 1-4 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in seven starts this year, but he's much better than the numbers indicate.  Remember, he went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts in 2013.  This guy will shut down the Astros Friday.

Collin McHugh has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year.  The right-hander has been the ace of the Astros' staff, going 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in nine starts while striking out 60 batters in 54 1/3 innings.  McHugh is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Cobb is 22-9 UNDER (+11.7 Units) vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Rays last six road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cobb's last nine road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  These last four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -153

The Detroit Tigers are actually undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last 11 games overall.  After winning last night against the Chicago White Sox 4-0, I look for the Tigers to put together a nice little winning streak going forward, starting tonight.

Drew Smyly has pitched well for Detroit this season, going 3-4 with a 3.81 ERA in nine starts and three relief appearances.  The left-hander has owned Minnesota, going 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three careers starts.  He hasn't allowed a single earned run over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Twins.

Kyle Gibson has pitched admirably at home this season for the Twins.  However, it has been a completely different story on the road.  The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in six starts away from home in 2014.  His lone career start against Detroit came on the road on May 10th as he allowed six earned runs over two innings in a 3-9 loss to the Tigers.

The Twins are 1-5 in Gibson's last six starts as an underdog.  Minnesota is 1-4 in Gibson's last five road starts.  The Tigers are 122-57 in their last 179 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Twins are 3-16 (-13.2 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

I certainly understand the fact that the Heat have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in any of the past two years.  However, they haven't played a team as good as this 2013-14 San Antonio squad.  The Spurs are even better than they were a year ago, and they have made some nice adjustments from the way they played the Heat in the Finals last year.

Last year, the Spurs would go under screens and dare Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot the outside shot.  Now, they are mixing it up, switching screens about half the time to give those two stars a different look, and it's working.  Their transition defense has also been much better than it was a year ago.

San Antonio comes into this game knowing that they can essentially win the series with a victory tonight, and it will not be lacking any motivation because of it.  This team is gleaming with confidence after a marvelous shooting display in Game 3, and while I do not expect that kind of shooting performance again, I believe they will be good enough to stay within 5.5 points, likely pulling off the upset.

Miami is 4-12 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.  San Antonio is 41-22 ATS after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 53-25-1 ATS in its last 79 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 4 Thursday.

15* NL Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +106

The Chicago Cubs have been playing their best baseball of the season over the last couple of weeks.  They have won six of their last nine games overall coming in, and look to even this series with the Pirates.  With the edge they have on the mound in this one, I look for them to do just that.

Jeff Samardzija has been brilliant this season, posting a 2.54 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 13 starts.  Better yet, in eight career starts against Pittsburgh, he sports a 2.05 ERA and 0.930 WHIP.  He has allowed just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates.

Look for the Cubs to get their bats going off Edinson Volquez tonight.  The right-hander went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA in 2013 in his time between the Padres and Dodgers.  He is 3-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 12 starts this season for Pittsburgh.  Volquez has given up nine earned runs, three homers and 17 base runners over 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago for a 12.80 ERA.

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss.  Pittsburgh is 6-17 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after six consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  The Pirates are 1-4 in their last five during game 4 of a series.  Take the Cubs Thursday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -122

The Los Angeles Angels are playing their best baseball of the season right now having won five straight.  They will not let up tonight as they still trail the Oakland A's by 2.5 games for first place in the AL West division.  I look for them to make it six in a row tonight.

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back ace Jered Weaver at this kind of price at home.  The right-hander has gone 7-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in seven home starts.

Weaver will want revenge from a loss to the A's on June 1st in a rare poor start for him against this team.  Indeed, Weaver is 11-8 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 27 career starts against Oakland.  In fact, before his last start against the A's, he had gone 8-1 with a minuscule 0.87 ERA in his previous 11 starts against them, allowing eight earned runs in 82 1/3 innings.

Tom Milone has been at his worst on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in six starts away from home.  The left-hander sports a 4.21 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles as well.  Simply put, he is overmatched in this one.

Weaver is 85-35 (+28.8 Units) against the money line in home games in his career.  Weaver is 32-8 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents in his career.  The Angels are 39-13 in Weaver's last 52 home starts.  Los Angeles is 52-18 in Weaver's last 70 starts as a favorite. 

The Angels are 6-0 in their last six home games.  Los Angeles is 11-1 in its last 12 when its opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.  The A's are 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog.  The Angels are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last five games overall.  These five trends combine for a 33-1 system backing the home team.  Bet the Angels Wednesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The San Antonio Spurs represent my strongest play of the entire NBA Finals tonight as a 4.5-point road underdog in Game 3 against the Miami Heat.  I look for them to not only cover, but to win this game outright to re-gain home-court advantage in the series.

The Spurs have been the best road team in the league this season, going 33-16 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game.  This veteran bunch will not be intimidated one bit by going into Miami to try and come away with a victory in Game 3.

The Heat have been unbelievable when coming off a loss this season, but not so hot when coming off a win.  They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games following a S.U. win.  Miami is also 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a road win, and 14-26 ATS in its last 40 home games after playing its last game on the road.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a home loss.  The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots.  San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  The Spurs are 52-25-1 ATS in their last 78 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Rangers OVER 9

I'm backing the OVER tonight in this interleague contest between the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers.  This game will be played by the American League rules with a designated hitter, which further enhances the chances of it going OVER the total.

Colby Lewis is just 4-4 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in 10 starts this season for Texas.  The right-hander is 0-2 with a 10.43 ERA in his last three home starts, 0-3 with a 12.83 ERA in his last three interleague games, and he has given up at least five runs in three of his past four starts.

Tom Koehler got off to a fast start this season for the Marlins, but he has struggled of late.  Indeed, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in his last three starts, and 2-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in six road starts this year.

Texas has combined for 10 or more runs with six of its last seven opponents overall, all of which have come at home in hitter-friendly Arlington.  That includes last night's 7-17 home loss to the Cleveland Indians in a game that saw 24 combined runs.

Miami is 28-11 to the OVER in night games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Marlins last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 8-0 in Rangers last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lewis' last five interleague starts.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these teams.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Texas.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Nationals/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -121

The Washington Nationals have a big edge on the mound tonight, and for the price, they're certainly the play in this one.  Rarely ever will you get ace Stephen Strasburg as this small of a favorite.  Plus, they are playing their best baseball of the season having won seven of their last nine games overall.

San Francisco is overvalued right now due to having the league's best record.  Ryan Vogelsong is also overvalued due to a fast start this season.  But remember, Vogelsong went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts last year.  Also, Vogelsong is 1-1 with an 8.73 ERA and 2.116 WHIP in three career starts against Washington, all since 2012.

Strasburg is still one of the best starters in the game even though he's not getting that kind of credit right now.  The right-hander has gone 5-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  For his career, the right-hander is 34-23 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 88 starts.  Strasburg is also 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.

The Nationals are 48-18 in their last 66 games as a road favorite.  Washington is 15-6 in Strasburgh's last 21 starts overall, including 4-0 in his last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 5-12 in their last 17 Monday games.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 199

After the Heat and Spurs went OVER in Game 1, I believe there is some value to backing the UNDER in Game 2.  These teams have had two days off since Game 1 to make adjustments, which I strong believe will favor the defenses.

Miami is  9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 26-11 (70.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +147

I backed the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday in a 5-0 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays as a +150 underdog.  I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons as we'll rarely have a chance to back this elite team as this big of an underdog all year.

Another reason I like this play is because the Blue Jays are way overvalued right now.  They lead the AL East standings after a great run over the past month, but this might not be the best team in the division come season's end.

Jaime Garcia has been at his best on the road this season, going 1-0 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.058 WHIP.  The left-hander also sports a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto.  Drew Hutchison has been at his worst at home, going 1-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP this year.

The Cardinals are 26-10 in their last 36 during game 3 of a series.  St. Louis is 5-1 in Garcia's last six road starts.  The Cardinals are 10-3 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Take St. Louis Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals +150

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the St. Louis Cardinals at this kind of price.  I'll take advantage and fade the Toronto Blue Jays, who are overvalued right now due to their recent stretch of solid play, which includes a five-game winning streak heading into this one.

Another reason the Blue Jays are overvalued in this contest is because Mark Buehrle is the only 10-game winner in baseball right now.  While he has been brilliant to this point, there's no question his start to the season is an aberration based off of previous years, and he's going to regress.

Shelby Miller is one of the best young starters in the game, but he's undervalued right now due to a slow start this year that has seen him go 6-5 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts.  This is the same guy that went 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.206 WHIP as a rookie last year.

Toronto is 0-11 (-11.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last two seasons.  This is a free-swinging Blue Jays team that strikes out a lot, and I look for Miller to use that to his advantage today.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Mets/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +134

The New York Mets should not be an underdog to the San Francisco Giants tonight.  I'll take advantage and back them at a great price in Game 1 of this series due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Jon Niese has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the last couple of seasons.  This year has been no exception.  Niese is 3-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  The left-hander has gone 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco as well.

Matt Cain just hasn't been the same ever since signing the biggest contract ever for a right-handed starter in the big leagues at the time a couple years ago.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in eight starts this season, and 5-5 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 12 career starts against New York.

Cain is 0-8 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last two seasons.  Niese is 15-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Niese is 14-5 (+15.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less over the last two seasons.  New York is 5-0 in its last five meetings in San Francisco.  Take the Mets Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -110

Off back-to-back losses, I look for the Atlanta Braves (31-27) to bounce back with a victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-36) in Game 1 of this series Friday night.  They'll do so behind the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Ace Julio Teheran gets the ball looking to build off an already impressive season to this point.  The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in 12 starts, including 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three starts.  Teheran is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against Arizona as well.

Brandon McCarthy is one of the worst starters in the big leagues and has not been the same since getting hit in the head by a baseball.  The right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in seven home starts.

Arizona is 1-9 (-9.1 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.  McCarthy is 0-6 (-8.1 Units) against the money line in home games against NL East opponents over the last two seasons. 

The Braves are 13-3 in Teheran's last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 3-12 in their last 15 games as a home underdog.  Arizona is 1-10 in McCarthy's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Friday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs fought hard to get back to this position.  They won the league's best record during the regular season to get home-court advantage throughout, then made their way through the Western Conference, which is arguably as strong as it's ever been.

Miami kind of went through the motions during the regular season, allowing the Pacers to take the No. 1 seed without even earning it.  The Heat have then faced a very weak Eastern Conference to get here.  They won't be ready for the challenge that's coming in Game 1 like the Spurs will be.

The Spurs are 41-10 at home this season.  They have won eight straight playoff home games all by 6 points or more.  In fact, their last seven playoff home games have resulted in victories by 17-plus points each.  They have won 15 of their last 19 home meetings with the Heat.

 San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Spurs are 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are motivated right now due to losing six of their last eight games overall, including two of three to the Royals in this series.  I backed them last night with success, and I feel they are the right side tonight in Game 4 against Kansas City.

Michael Wacha is proving that his postseason run last year was no fluke.  The tall right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts.

Yordano Ventura is a talented young starter in this league and one that I have backed a few times already.  However, he has struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ventura is also 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in six home starts.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games as a road favorite.  The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Kansas City is 0-5 in Ventura's last five starts.  St. Louis is 8-0 in its last eight meetings in Kansas City.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the road team.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -117

After losing the first games games of this series, three straight, and six of their last seven overall, there's no question that the St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They couldn't have picked a better starter to get them back on track against the Kansas City Royals.

Ace Adam Wainwright gets the ball looking to improve upon yet another Cy Young-caliber season.  The right-hander has gone 8-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 12 starts, including 5-2 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in seven road starts.  Wainwright is also 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in six career starts against Kansas City.

While I do believe Jason Vargas is an underrated starter in this league, he is simply no match for Wainwright.  The left-hander has gone 3-2 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in six home starts this season.  He is also 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis.

Wainwright is 66-30 (+24.5 Units) against the money line after a team loss in his career.  The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series.  St. Louis is 47-19 in Wainwright's last 66 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -105

The Cincinnati Reds are showing excellent value tonight as a small home favorite over the San Francisco Giants.  The Reds are showing playing their best baseball of the season right now having won four straight and five of six, while the Giants are overvalued due to their fast start to the year.

Tony Cingrani came on the scene last year and went 7-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 18 starts and five relief appearances.  While he has only posted a 4.01 ERA thus far in 2014, there's no question that this is one of the best young starters in the game today.  He also sports a 3.47 ERA in four home starts.

Ryan Vogelsong is coming off an awful year in which he went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts in 2013.  He has been better this year at 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.277 WHIP, but he's only 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in five road starts.

Vogelsong is 1-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in nine career starts against Cincinnati, while Cingrani is 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in two career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four games overall.  The Reds are 4-0 in their last four vs. NL West opponents.  Take the Reds Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Yankees +120

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as a home underdog.  I'll take advantage today and side with them while they're showing some of their best value of the entire season Tuesday night.

After dropping two in a row, I look for the Yankees to back in the win column behind one of the most underrated starters in the league for years.  Hiroki Kuroda may be struggling a bit at 4-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.323 WHIP this year, but he's still better than he gets credit for.  He has posted a 3.58 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in four career starts against Oakland.

Scott Kazmir has had a revival over the last couple seasons in the big leagues, but he's overvalued now as a result.  Kazmir pitched a complete game against the Detroit Tigers last time out, and he'll be fatigued and in line for a letdown because of it.  The left-hander is 1-3 with an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees, yielding 18 earned runs and six homers over 19 1/3 innings.

Kuroda is 19-6 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career.  The A's are 0-4 in their last four road games.  The Yankees are 13-4 in Kuroda's last 17 home starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5 runs.  New York is 5-0 in its last five when its opponents scores five runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the San Francisco Giants.  They are playing their best baseball of the season right now having won three straight and four of their last five games overall.

San Francisco comes in overvalued due to owning the league's best record.  Tim Lincecum is one of their worst starters, going 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in four road starts.  Lincecum is 0-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in five career starts against Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey has not gotten off to the start he wanted this year after signing a big contract last offseason, but he is coming around of late.  Bailey is 2-0 in his last two starts while allowing just five earned runs over 13 innings for a 3.46 ERA in wins over the Cardinals & Dodgers. 

The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in seven career starts against San Francisco.  In his last two starts against the Giants, Bailey has given up just one earned run in 16 innings, which includes a no-hitter.  It also has featured 19 strikeouts and only three base runners allowed in those 16 innings.

The Reds are 6-1 in Bailey's last seven home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in Bailey's last four starts as a favorite.  The Reds are 5-1 in their last six games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  Take the Reds Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-128)

While it's rare, I do like taking big road underdogs on the run line just for that extra run of insurance.  A big percentage of games are decided by one run, and I believe there is a good chance that the White Sox either beat the Dodgers outright or lose by a run tonight.

This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than the line would indicate.  Jose Quintana never gets the respect he deserves, going 3-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  The left-hander pitched eight shutout innings in his lone career starts against Los Angeles.

Clayton Kershaw has been solid this year, but not as sharp as he has in the past.  The left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox have the edge at the plate in this one.  They have gone 9-7 against southpaws this year while hitting .271 and scoring 5.1 runs per game in those 16 contests.  The Dodgers are 6-7 against left-handers while hitting .221 and scoring a measly 3.0 runs in those 13 games.

Plays against all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (LA DODGERS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%, +25 units) over the last five seasons.

Kershaw is 3-12 against the run line (-10.0 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Kershaw is 6-18 against the run line (-12.6 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to +115 over the last three seasons.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +145

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox Sunday.  I'll take them at this price knowing that they'll be motivated for a win because they've lost five in a row coming in, including a 7-1 loss yesterday.

Tampa Bay is still one of the best teams in the league as I see it, and I won't be surprised to see them atop the AL East standings by season's end.  They gotta go right now thought, and Erik Bedard is the guy that can get them on track.

The left-hander is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 2014.  He is 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 14 career starts against Boston.  John Lester is 13-11 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 29 career starts against Tampa Bay.  Lester is 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

The Rays come in highly motivated.  They are 9-4 in their last 13 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The  Red Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in Lester's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +157

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.  I'll take them at this price knowing that they'll be motivated, and with Jeremy Guthrie on the mound.

The Royals lost 12-2 yesterday so they're obviously motivated to avenge that loss.  Guthrie is the perfect guy to do it as he has gone 2-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He's also 0-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in his last three starts.

Mark Buehle is the most overrated starter in the big leagues to this point.  He has opened 9-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 starts this year, but he has been awful over the last couple of years.  So he's having a career year but it won't last.

Guthrie has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 21 career starts against Toronto, so he obviously likes facing this team.  The Royals are 24-9 in Guthrie's last 33 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Guthrie is 8-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last two seasons.  Take the Royals Sunday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +4

The San Antonio Spurs remember when they went up 2-0 only to lose the next four games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals in 2012.  They have been playing with extra motivation this series because of it, and while the home team has won every game thus far, I look for that to change in Game 6 tonight.

The Spurs know what they need to do to beat the Thunder after running their game plan to perfection in a blowout victory in Game 5.  They have been stagnant on offense in their two road games, but they got back to moving the ball in Game 5.  Look for them to really put an emphasis on ball movement in Game 6, because when they move it like they are supposed to, they are virtually unbeatable.

Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  San Antonio is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.  The Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -114

The Atlanta Braves are highly motivated to dominate this series with the Miami Marlins after getting swept by the Boston Red Sox in a four-game set last series.  I backed them in a 3-2 victory in Game 1, and I fully expect a bigger blowout to go in their favor in Game 2 Saturday.

The Braves have a massive edge on the mound in this one.  Ervin Santana has faltered of late, but he's still been pretty good this season.  The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in nine starts in 2014.

Jacob Turner is a below-average starter in this league.  The right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in six starts, including 1-0 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in three home starts, which is poor considering Miami is a pitcher-friendly park.

The Marlins are 4-14 in Turner's last 18 starts overall.  Miami is 1-7 in Turner's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Marlins are 0-6 in Turners last 6 starts vs. National League East opponents.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

15* Pacers/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons.  After losing the first two games in Miami this series, I look for the Pacers to give the Heat a run for their money in Game 6 to try and extend this series and send it back to Indiana for a Game 7.

This has been a much closer series than most realize.  The Pacers won Game 1, were tied with just over a minute remaining in Game 2, and blew a 15-point lead in Miami in Game 3.  I like the fight this team showed in Game 5, and I believe it will carry over into Game 6 with their season at stake. 

After all, the Pacers have played their best this postseason when their back has been against the wall.  They won Game 6 in Atlanta when trailing 3-2, and finished the Hawks off in Game 7.  After falling behind 0-1 to Washington, they won three straight and eventually won in six games.  They are still a solid 5-3 on the road in these playoffs.

Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots this season.  Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -122

The Atlanta Braves represent my strongest play in the NL East division for the entire month of May.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with Miami tonight after getting swept in four games by the Boston Red Sox last series.

Atlanta sends NL Cy Young contender Julio Teheran to the mound to stop the bleeding.  The right-hander has been nothing short of brilliant this season, going 4-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 11 starts.  Teheran is unbeaten in five career starts against Miami, going 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.175 WHIP.

Tom Koehler got off to a great start this season for Miami, but he has come back down to reality of late.  The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in his last three starts.  Koehler is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, all of which have resulted in losses for the Marlins.

Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 41-11 (78.8%, +27.5 units) over the last five seasons.  The Braves are 40-18 in their last 58 meetings with the Marlins.

Atlanta is 70-37 (+31.4 Units) against the money line in road games after three or more consecutive losses since 1997.  The Braves are 11-1 in Teheran's last 12 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 in Teheran's last four starts vs. Miami.  The Marlins are 23-51 in their last 74 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5

The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.

The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game.  The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far.  The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.

I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight.  The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.

The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason.  The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -127

The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing well over the past couple weeks.  They have won 10 of their last 14 games overall to get right back in the thick of the NL Central race.  They have not lost back-to-back games since May 9-10, and I look for them to avoid that tonight after losing Game 3 to the Yankees last night.

It's nice to see Jaime Garcia back on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA and 0.868 WHIP through two starts this season after missing most of last year due to injury.  Garcia is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong is coming off a disastrous 2013 campaign in which he went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts.  While he has excelled at home this season, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in four road starts in 2014.  Vogelsong is also 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 71-34 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 38-15 in their last 53 games following a loss.  St. Louis is 14-5 in Garcia's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 10-23 in their last 33 vs. National League Central foes.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5.  This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.

"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."

The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch.  They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team.  They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996.  Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.