20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year.  They have opened 7-5 this season and will be a contender to reach the Western Conference playoffs with all of the talent they have on board.

Antony Davis (26.3 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is an MVP candidate already this year.  Jrue Holiday (15.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) have returned healthy this season and made a huge difference.  Tyreke Evans (15.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 6.2 apg) is the do-it-all guy for this team.

I know that the Pelicans are banged up right now as Omer Asik (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg) is questionable to play tonight, while Eric Gordon (9.5 ppg) is out indefinitely.  But as long as they have their four aforementioned studs healthy, I'm not worried one bit.

Sacramento (8-5) has been one of the biggest surprises in the West this season, but unlike New Orleans, its fast start is unlikely to continue.  I believe the Kings are still a pretender in the West and getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point underdogs.

The Kings have much more worrisome injury concerns than the Pelicans do right now.  Rudy Gay (21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Darren Collison (15.9 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Ramon Sessions (5.2 ppg) are all questionable to play tonight.  Gay is their second-leading scorer, while Collison and Sessions are the 1-2 on this team at the point guard position to run the offense.  Even if all three play, I STILL love New Orleans as only a 3-point home favorite in this one.

The Pelicans are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Dallas way back in their second game of the season.  The Pelicans are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game at home this year.  The Kings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games overall.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg). 

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog in its last game, showing that it can play with a team from a major conference.  It also beat Central Arkansas 100-75 in its opener, giving it a common opponent with Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers came into the season overrated with a Top 25 ranking.  They only beat Northern Kentucky 80-61 in their, and beat Central Arkansas (82-56) by a similar margin Nebraska-Omaha (won by 25) did.  Perhaps the most telling game the Cornhuskers played came in their 62-66 road loss to Rhode Island last time out.

These teams have only met twice before, and both were decided by less than this margin.  Nebraska won 76-62 in 2006 and 75-62 in 2012 as a 14.5-point favorite.  There's no question that the Mavericks are a much better team than they were two years ago and will be poised to give these overrated Huskers a run for their money tonight.

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Nebraska-Omaha is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Ohio/Miami (Ohio) MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ohio -3

The Ohio Bobcats (5-6) need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they have every reason to be motivated coming into this game. At 2-9 on the season, Miami Ohio has nothing to play for but pride. I like the motivational angle favoring the Bobcats as well as the way they have been playing of late, which has been very impressive.

Ohio has played two of its best games of the season in its last two contests. The first was a 37-14 home win over Buffalo in which it outgained the Bulls by 255 yards and dominated in every phase of the game. The second came in a losing effort to Northern Illinois (14-21) last week. It actually outgained the Huskies by 19 yards for the game. The Huskies are the favorites to win the MAC right now with just one conference loss all season, so that effort was impressive by the Bobcats.

While I will admit that the Redhawks are better than their 2-9 record would indicate, I still believe they should be a bigger underdog in this contest. They have had some close losses this season, but the fact is that they continue to lose. They only have two wins all year, and those two came against MAC bottom feeders UMass (42-41) and Kent State (10-3) by a combined eight points. Both of those games were played at home, too.

Miami Ohio has had some poor performances on its home turf as well. It lost at home to FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 10-17, while also falling to Western Michigan 10-41 in its last home game. It was outgained by the Broncos by 263 yards in that contest. That was the fourth time this season that the Redhawks have been outgained by 144 or more yards in a game. They are getting outscoring by 10.0 points per game on the season and outgained by 58.5 yards per game.

Ohio has really gotten its running game going here of late. It rushed for 233 yards on Buffalo and 203 yards on Northern Illinois in its last two games. It should be able to move the football at will on the ground against a Miami Ohio defense that has been soft as butter against the run.

The Redhawks are giving up 202 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season against teams that average 161 rushing yards and 4.4 per carry.  They gave up 273 rushing yards to Buffalo, 433 to Northern Illinois, 282 to Western Michigan and 209 to Central Michigan.  As you can see, these numbers are staggering and suggest that they can do little to stop the run.

The Bobcats are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redhawks. They won 41-16 at home last year while outgaining Miami Ohio 535-240 for the game, or by 295 total yards. Miami Ohio is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Redhawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Roll with Ohio Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  They return three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 5.5 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (20.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Morris (16.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Hogue (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (13.5 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 2-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82) and Georgia State (81-58).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.

Alabama is off to an unbeaten 3-0 start this season as well.  It does have blowout wins over Towson State (82-54) and Southern Miss (81-67), but its 80-74 win as a 19-point favorite against Western Carolina is concerning.  Also, all three of those games were at home.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Alabama went just 13-19 last year and has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012.  While it should be improved this season with four returning starters, the fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't have a whole lot of talent.  The Crimson Tide also lose their leading scorer from last year in Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).

Alabama is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 after playing three consecutive games as a favorite.  The Crimson Tide are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight  games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Crimson Tide are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Iowa State is 16-6 ATS when playing just its second game in eight days over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

20* Ravens/Saints MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans -3

There is one thing that really stands out to me about this game and shows that there is value in backing the Saints as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens. In their last two games, the Saints were 6-point home favorites against the 49ers and 8.5-point home favorites against the Bengals. After losing those two games, they are only 3-point home favorites this week.

I believe both the 49ers and Bengals are better teams than the Ravens, but they were both much bigger road underdogs. After all, Cincinnati did beat Baltimore twice this year. This over-adjustment from the oddsmakers has provided us with a ton of line value in backing the Saints at home. Sure, the Ravens are coming off a bye week, but that bye is not worth this many points.

Without question, New Orleans still has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-2 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 18-3-1 (86%) ATS at home dating back to 2011-12. This is still one of the toughest places to play in the NFL despite the losses the last two weeks.

I have no doubt that the Saints are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate. Four of their six losses have come by a field goal or less and a combined nine points. That’s how close this is to being possibly an 8-2 team. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by 54.6 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Seahawks rank ahead of them in this department, and all four of those teams are borderline elite.

Baltimore is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with its two wins coming against the likes of Cleveland and Tampa Bay. It has lost at Indianapolis (13-20), Cincinnati (24-27) and Pittsburgh (23-43). This team is clearly not as good on the road as it is at home, where it is 4-1 on the season. Plus, New Orleans hasn’t lost three straight home games since 2005.

The Saints’ problems certainly aren’t on Drew Brees. He leads a Saints offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 424.5 yards per game.  Brees has been great all season, completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 3,071 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He should have another big day against a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st against the pass, giving up 251.2 yards per game. The Ravens have only picked off opposing quarterbacks six times all season.

New Orleans is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games overall. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5

The Toronto Raptors have clearly been one of the best teams in the league this season.  They have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, so they have been a covering machine thus far.  While they will continue to be a good bet for much of the season, I believe they are overvalued here tonight.

Phoenix is a team that barely missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games last year in a stacked Western Conference.  It was an underrated squad last year, and that continues to be the case in 2014.  It has opened 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread against a much tougher schedule than Toronto.

A big reason I'm fading the Raptors tonight is because this is a letdown spot for them.  They are coming off a huge 110-93 win at Cleveland on Saturday, which was the favorite to win the NBA Finals coming into the season.  The Raptors won't come back with the same kind of effort they played with in that game.

The Suns have feasted on Eastern Conference opponents this season.  They have gone 5-1 against them, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.  All four of those have come in their last four games as they will conclude a six-game road trip with tonight's game and want to finish it off a winner.

Phoenix swept the season series with Toronto last season.  It won 106-97 at home as a 3.5-point favorite.  It then went on the road and beat the Raptors 121-113 as a 4-point underdog in the second meetings.  The Suns should not be the underdog in this first meeting of 2013-14 tonight.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, in November games are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  The Suns are 51-22 ATS in their last 73 vs. teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game. 

Phoenix is 11-2 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Phoenix is 32-15-1 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Suns are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly hurting without Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  They have opened the season 3-11 and will struggle to make the playoffs after this poor start.  The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with this team now.

That poor public perception has really created a lot of line value for us to back the Thunder today.  They have lost five in a row coming in, but a closer look at their losses shows that they have actually been very competitive despite playing a very difficult schedule this season.

The Thunder are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, but only one of those seven losses has come by more than seven points.  So, they have been very close, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump.

Oklahoma City has been much more competitive at home than on the road.  It is 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS at home this season.  It has beaten Denver (102-91) and Sacramento (101-93), while all four of its losses to Memphis (89-91), Detroit (89-96), Houston (65-69) and Brooklyn (92-94) have come by seven points or fewer.  So, it has yet to lose at home by this margin.

Golden State, on the other hand, is way overvalued right now due to its 9-2 start to the season.  It has won four straight coming in, but all four of those were against weak opponents in Brooklyn, Charlotte, LA Lakers and Utah.  I have no doubt that the Warriors are feeling overconfident due to this fast start, and they won't bring the intensity it takes to put away the Thunder by this margin on the road.

Oklahoma City is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Thunder are 61-31 ATS in their last 92 off an upset loss as a favorite.  Oklahoma City is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 following a close loss by 3 points or less.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.

Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.

Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season.  Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season.  Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.

USC is a team in rebuilding mode.  It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play.  Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg).  They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).

USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule.  Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams.  It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic.  This team simply is not very good based on these results.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) actually have a fighting chance to win the NFC South. They are only two games back of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons for first place, who each share identical 4-6 records. Such is life in this weak division, but the Buccaneers certainly have reason to be motivated right now due to their circumstances.

The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, don’t have a whole lot to play for at this point. They are 4-6 on the season and three games back of both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North. Their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. I’m not saying they won’t show up Sunday, but I do expect the Buccaneers to be the more motivated team.

Both head coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown want revenge on their former team. Smith went 81-63 in his nine seasons with the Bears and was fired after failing to make the playoffs in 2012 despite a 10-6 record. McCown went 3-2 as a starter for the Bears last year with 11 touchdowns and only one interception before signing with Tampa Bay this offseason. Look for the Bucs’ players to rally around these two Sunday.

Chicago’s Marc Trestman is squarely on the hot seat. With Smith, Chicago only gave up 19.2 points per game and 40 or more points four times in nine seasons. Under Trestman, the Bears are just 12-14, and they have given up 29.5 points per game while allowing 40 or more a whopping six times. This defense just cannot be trusted, which is why the Bears should not be laying six points to the Bucs this week.

The Bucs have been playing their best football over their last three games. They have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite going 1-2 as they were competitive in losses to the Browns and Falcons. They got back on track last week with a 27-7 win at Washington. McCown threw for 288 yards and two TD passes to rookie Mike Evans. He has thrown for 589 yards and four touchdowns against two picks in two starts since regaining the starting job he lost after suffering a thumb injury.

Tampa Bay has actually played its best football on the road this season.  While it is just 2-3 straight up away from home, it has gone a sensational 4-1 ATS.  Both of its wins came on the road against the Redskins and Steelers.  It also played New Orleans tough in a 31-37 (OT) loss as an 11-point dog and Cleveland tough in a 17-22 loss as a 7-point road dog.

Just having Smith and McCown’s knowledge of Chicago will be a huge asset in preparation this week. McCown can give the Tampa Bay defense the entire Chicago playbook, and you know that Smith will take advantage of it with his defensive expertise. There’s no question that the Bucs will have the edge in preparation because of it.

The last four games between Tampa Bay and Chicago have all been decided by six points or less with two of those going into overtime. In fact, the Buccaneers have not lost by more than six points to Chicago in any of their last six meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time that happened. Dating back further, the Bucs have stayed within six points of the Bears in 17 of their last 18 meetings. That’s a 17-1 system backing the Bucs pertaining to the 6-point spread this week.

Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following a win. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Vikings +9

There is no question that the Green Bay Packers (7-3) are overvalued right now due to scoring 50-plus points in each of their last two games, which is a first in franchise history. Asking any NFL team to go on the road to win by double-digits to cover is asking a lot. That’s especially the case in a division rivalry game like this one as these games are always played closer to the vest.

Sure, the Packers beat the Eagles 53-20 last week, but that score was very misleading. They only outgained the Eagles by 46 yards in the win. Their defense gave up 429 yards to the Eagles as well. The difference was that Philadelphia committed four turnovers, and Green Bay capitalized with a whopping three non-offensive touchdowns. Any time a team is coming off a game with multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns, they are likely going to be overvalued the next week.

Sure, the Packers are 7-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers shows that they are not as good as their record would indicate. They actually rank just 19th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 7.9 yards per game. That’s due to a defense that ranks 25th in the league in allowing 377.4 yards per game. This defense just cannot be trusted.

Green Bay did crush Minnesota 42-10 in the first meeting this year, but Christian Ponder was the starting quarterback in that game. It was closer than the final score would indicate, too, as the Packers only outgained the Vikings 320-299 for the game. The Packers simply capitalized on three Minnesota turnovers, including one that resulted in a defensive touchdown.

One thing that shows how blatantly obvious it is that the Packers are overvalued this week is based on the line compared to the first time these teams played.  Green Bay was a 9.5-point home favorite over Minnesota in the first meeting.  And, that was with Ponder as the Vikings' quarterback.  When you factor in home-field advantage, the Packers should only be a 3.5-point favorite at Minnesota in the rematch.  Factor in that Bridgewater is now the quarterback, and perhaps the Packers shouldn't even be favored at all.

The Vikings have been much more competitive with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback. They have gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS with Bridgewater at the helm. They beat Atlanta 41-28 and Washington 29-26 at home, while also topping Tampa Bay 19-13 on the road. They were even competitive in their losses aside from perhaps a 3-17 loss to Detroit. They also fell at Buffalo 16-17 and at Chicago 13-21.  So, they have essentially been in every game they've played with Bridgewater under center.

Bridgewater should have a very good day against this suspect Green Bay defense, but what really gives Minnesota a chance to keep this game close is its own stop unit. The Vikings are vastly improved on this side of the ball under the guidance of first-year head coach Mike Zimmer. They rank 12th in the league in total defense, giving up 340.5 yards per game. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three years.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -1

The Houston Texans (5-5) are coming off arguably their best performance of the season. They went into Cleveland and came away with a 23-7 victory last week. It was certainly their best offensive output of their year as they racked up 424 total yards in the win. A whopping 213 of that came on the ground even without Arian Foster, and he is questionable to return this week, so they have shown they can win without him in case he cannot go.

The real difference was the insertion of Ryan Mallett at quarterback over the bye week. Mallett has been biding his time in New England as Tom Brady’s backup, and he finally got his chance. This guy has a rocket of an arm on him and is a clear upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick. Mallett completed 20 of 30 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the win over the Browns, which is no small feat in a tough environment.

Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. Despite its 6-3-1 record, it is only outscoring teams 22.4 to 22.1 on the year. It is actually getting outgained by an average of 39.4 yards per game, ranking 25th in the league in yardage differential. Every team in the NFL that is ranked 22nd or worse in yardage differential has no better than a .500 record aside from the Bengals, which shows how fortunate they are to have the record that they do at this point in the season.

Houston is actually outscoring teams 22.9 to 20.4 on the season, showing that by score margin alone, it is the better team than Cincinnati. Yet, this line of -1 is saying that the Bengals would be roughly 2-3 points better than the Texans on a neutral field. I’m not buying it, which is why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Texans at home in Week 12. They are in must-win mode right now if they want to make the playoffs, and I love their chances of making a run with Mallett at quarterback and J.J. Watt leading the D.

Houston is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati. It has outscored the Bengals 133-65 in the five games, or by an average of 13.6 points per game. It has outgained the Bengals by 222, 40, 127, 176 and 131 yards in its last five meetings, respectively. The Texans simply have the Bengals’ number, and I look for that to continue in 2014.

Houston ranks 3rd in the league in rushing, averaging 144.6 yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season. That makes this a great matchup for the Texans. The Bengals rank 28th in the league against the run, giving up 136.2 yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season. Cincinnati is 21-40 ATS in its last 61 games versus good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game.

Plays on favorites (HOUSTON) – good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against an average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) are 61-33 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) – off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog are 123-75 (62.1%) ATS since 1983. The Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +14

Any time you are catching double-digits in the NFL it’s a wise move to first look at taking the underdog. These double-digits dogs have proven to be a very profitable bet throughout the years. I have enough reasons supporting the Jaguars to feel confident in taking the 14 points this week against the Colts despite the fact that they have not played well against them in recent meetings.

Jacksonville has been a completely different team in its last five games. Sure, it has gone 1-4 in its last five, but all four losses have come by 14 points or fewer. In fact, the Jaguars have not lost by more than 14 points since September. They arguably should not be 1-4 in their last five either because a closer look at the box scores show that they have actually outplayed the opposition.

The Jaguars have actually outgained their last five opponents by a total of 86 yards. They outgained the Titans by 89 yards in a 14-16 road loss, outgained the Browns by 70 yards in a 24-6 home win, outgained the Dolphins by 51 yards in a 13-27 home loss, were outgained by the Bengals by 58 yards in a 23-33 road loss, and were outgained by the Cowboys by 66 yards in a 17-31 road loss. So, they haven’t been outgained by more than 66 yards in any of their last five games.

The rest factor for the Jaguars coming into this one is going to be huge. They finally had their bye last week, and they would love nothing more than to beat the division-leading Colts when they return from it Sunday. Having two full weeks to prepare for this game should do this young team wonders. They could also catch the Colts in a hangover spot from their poor performance against the Patriots last week.

This Indianapolis defense is terrible. It has given up an average of 39.0 points and 526.0 yards per game in its last three games. It gave up 42 points and 501 yards to the Patriots, 24 points and 438 yards to the Giants, and 51 points and 639 yards to the Steelers in its last three games, respectively. I believe the Jaguars will be able to move the football and put up enough points to stay within the number on Sunday.

Jacksonville is an improved defensive team as well since its first meeting with Indianapolis. It has given up a respectable 340.8 yards per game in its last five games overall. That’s impressive when you consider that it has faced some solid offenses during this stretch in Cleveland, Miami, Cincinnati and Dallas. Andrew Luck isn’t going to have the kind of success he did the first time around, especially with head coach Gus Bradley getting two weeks to prepare.

The Colts also lost a key piece to their offense in running back Ahmad Bradshaw to an ankle injury. This guy is simply irreplaceable as Trent Richardson is only half the back that Bradshaw is. Bradshaw leads the team in rushing with 425 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s an even bigger threat in the passing game. Indeed, he has a sneaky 38 receptions for 300 yards and six touchdowns on the year. Richardson only averages 3.4 yards per carry compared to Bradshaw’s 4.7. Richardson has only caught 22 passes and has yet to score.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (INDIANAPOLIS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a terrible team winning less than 25% of its games playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) actually find themselves tied for first place in the division despite their 4-6 record, and they even own the tiebreaker over the Saints. Such is life in the NFC South this season, but the Falcons aren’t going to complain. Most 4-6 teams at this point in the season would have little to play for, but that’s not the case here.

The Falcons have scratched, clawed and fought their way back into contention with impressive road wins at Tampa Bay and Carolina the past two weeks. Their solid play here of late even extends back to the game before as they held a 21-0 lead over the Lions in London only to lose on a last-second field goal, 22-21.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC.

The biggest difference for the Falcons during this stretch of solid play is their defense. They have held their last three opponents to an average of just 18.7 points per game. That has helped compliment an offense that remains one of the league’s best. The Falcons are putting up 23.8 points per game while ranking 10th in total offense at 367.3 yards per game.

Cleveland (6-4) is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season. It is nowhere near as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and the numbers show it. The Browns rank just 22nd in the league in total defense, giving up 372.3 yards per game. They also rank 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 16.2 yards per game. Of all the teams that rank below them at 22nd or worse in this department, only the Bengals have a winning record. Cincinnati is also an overrated team.  The Browns have been outgained in four of their last five games, including to Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

The Browns gave up 424 total yards to a mediocre Houston offense last week, including 213 rushing without Arian Foster, in their 23-7 loss.  The Browns are just decimated right now in the injury department on defense.  They are already missing defensive end Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes.  Ahtyba Rubin and Billy Winn have been slowed all season by injuries.  Now, they are going to be without their top two linebackers in Karlos Dansby (leading tackler, 73 tackles, 10 for loss, 3 sacks) and Jabaal Sheard (6 TFL, 2 sacks), who each went down with injuries in the loss to Houston.

I know that the Cleveland offense gets back Josh Gordon this week, but that's another reason I believe it is being overvalued here.  Gordon hasn't played all season and I expect him to be a non-factor this week, or at least not as big of a factor as he's getting credit for.  One thing here that gets overlooked is that the Browns have had no running game since center Alex Mack went out with a season-ending injury.  They are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry in Mack's absence.

The Falcons have actually done a decent job of getting to 4-6 this season because they have only played three home games all year compared to seven on the road. They are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan is 38-12 as a starter inside the Georgia Dome for his career. Many folks like to forget how much more dominant he has been at home compared to on the road over his career.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has played six of its 10 games at home thus far, which had aided its 6-4 record.  It is a respectable 2-2 on the road with a good win against Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, but the other three performances leave a lot to be desired.  The Browns lost 6-24 at Jacksonville, came back from 28-3 down to win 29-28 at lowly Tennessee, and came back from 27-3 down to lose 27-30 at Pittsburgh in the opener.

Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) – after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. The Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  I look for Ryan and company to win in a shootout.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Timberwolves UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.  If this was last year, this total would be justified, but these are two completely different teams from last year.

Minnesota no longer has Kevin Love, and it is battling all kinds of injury issues right now.  It is without each of its top three scorers in Kevin Martin (20.4 ppg), Thaddeus Young (14.3 ppg) and Nikola Pekovic (11.9 ppg) due to injuries or personal issues right now. They are also without starting PG Ricky Rubio right now, which has hurt their offense.

Points were certainly hard to come by for the Timberwolves in their first game without all three of these guys last night.  The Timberwolves managed just 92 points on 41.1% shooting against the San Antonio Spurs Friday.

Sacramento lost point guard Isaiah Thomas this offseason, but it has actually been better without him.  It is off to a solid 7-5 start this season.  The biggest reason is its improvement on defense as it is giving up just 100.8 points per game and 43.8% shooting.

The Kings actually rank in the top half of the league (13th) in defensive efficiency this year, giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves are a better defensive team without Martin and Pekovic, who are liabilities on that end.  So, their defensive numbers should improve going forward.

The Kings & Timberwolves have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, and six of their last seven meetings overall.  That says a lot because the Timberwolves were a much better offensive team with Kevin Love and a healthy Rubio, Pekovic and Martin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is 20-7 to the UNDER in its last 27 home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Sacramento is 17-4 to the UNDER in its last 21 off four straight games where it forced opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 208.5

This is a matchup between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  I fully expect a defensive battle as the Toronto Raptors travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Both teams rank right in the middle of the pack in pace.  Toronto is 13th with 95.9 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 17th at 95.4 possessions per game.  Neither of these teams really like to get up and down as they prefer to run their offense in the half court.

Toronto is combining with its opponents to average 201.6 points per game this season.  Cleveland is combining with its foes to average 204.5 points per game on the year.  Those two numbers alone show you that there is a ton of value in backing this UNDER tonight.

The Cavaliers are averaging just 88.3 points per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Their defense has been better as they have held three of their last four opponents to 94 or fewer points.  All three of them were good offensive teams in Atlanta, San Antonio and Washington as well.

Toronto and Cleveland have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, including 196 or less in five of those.  Dating back further, they have combined for 202 or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games as well.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5

I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.

I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite.  I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out.  I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.

Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters.  Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.

Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year.  I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.

Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games.  It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State.  Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls.  The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +6

The Air Force Falcons (8-2) have been the surprise of the Mountain West Conference this season. They have won eight games and are right in the thick of the Mountain Division title race. I expect them to continue their solid play in Week 13 as they visit the San Diego Aztecs (5-5), who aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in year’s past.

Air Force has beaten the likes of Boise State, Navy and Nevada this season, so its 8-2 record is no fluke. Its only losses have come on the road at Wyoming and at Utah State, which are two solid football teams. Only once all season has this team lost by more than four points, which came in a 16-34 setback at Utah State on October 11th in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Falcons were only outgained by nine yards in that contest.

Air Force boasts an explosive offense this season that is putting up 33.0 points and 437.6 yards per game. Once again, the ground game has been its bread and butter, averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. However, the difference this season has been the threat of a passing game.

The Falcons are completing 61.0% of their passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. They continually get big plays in the the passing game because opponents sell out to stop the run.  Kale Pearson has taken advantage, throwing for 1,342 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions, which are impressive numbers for a quarterback in the triple-option.

The Falcons are also improved on the other side of the ball, allowing just 23.6 points and 379.9 yards per game. They should be able to hold an SDSU offense in check that has been terrible all year. The Aztecs are only averaging 24.1 points and 387.2 yards per game against opposing defenses that are allowing 33.6 points and 452 yards per game. They are being held to 9.5 points and 65 yards per game below their opponents’ season averages on the season.

San Diego State has not beaten anybody of any relevance. Its five wins have come against the likes of Idaho, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and Northern Arizona. This could be a big hangover spot for the Aztecs, who fought tough last week but lost 29-38 at Boise State. It’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after a loss to arguably the best team in the Mountain West.

Also, this short week is going to be hard on the Aztecs.  The triple-option is very difficult to prepare for, and that is amplified when a team doesn't have a full week or more to prepare.  The Falcons should be able to have plenty of success on offense against this unprepared SDSU defense.  I look for the Aztecs to miss a lot of assignments, and defenses have no chance against the triple-option when they aren't assignment-sound.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Air Force and San Diego State have faced the same four teams. Air Force is 4-0 against those teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.0 points per game. San Diego State is just 2-2 against those teams, outscoring them by just 0.5 points per game.  By those numbers alone, it shows that Air Force is essentially 12.5 points better than San Diego State.

This is a huge revenge game for the Falcons as well.  They have lost each of their last four meetings with the Aztecs, including a tough 20-27 home loss last year when they simply weren't that good.  They also lost 9-28 in 2012 despite outgaining the Aztecs 393-268, 27-41 in 2012 while outgaining them 419-410, and 25-27 in 2010 while outgaining them 487-456.  Not only do I expect the Falcons to dominate the box score stats again, I also expect them to come away with the victory this time around, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on a road team (AIR FORCE) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Bet Air Force Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5

The Temple Owls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  I believe that will certainly show tonight as they stay within this huge spread against the Duke Blue Devils in Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Brooklyn, NY tonight.

Temple had a rare down year in 2013-14, going just 9-22.  Even with that poor season, head coach Fran Dunphy is 169-97 in his eight-plus year at Temple.  It was an aberration more than anything as the Owls missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in his eight seasons.

I really like the talent that's back on this Temple team for the 2014-15 season.  It returns three starters in G Will Cummings (16.8 ppg, 4.6 apg in 2013-14), G Quenton DeCosey (15.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and F/C Devontae Watson (2.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg).  They also get 6-7 sophomore Daniel Dngle (6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) back from a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year.

Temple is off to a 2-0 start this season with one poor performance and one great one.  The 40-37 win over American in the opener looks bad, but American did get to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament last year.  It is the favorite to win the Patriot League again in 2014-15 because it returns four starters and almost all of its key players from last year.  So, that win is not as bad as it looks.

The 82-75 win over Louisiana Tech as a 5-point dog last time out was mighty impressive.  Louisiana Tech went 29-8 last year and tied for first in Conference USA.  It brought back four starters from that 29-win team as well, so it is just as strong if not stronger this year.

Without question, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, I believe it is overvalued here as an 18.5-point favorite against Temple.  This is also a very tough spot for the Blue Devils emotionally.

They are coming off a huge 81-71 win over Michigan State on Tuesday.  I was on the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites in that game, and so was the betting public as they drove the line all the way up to 8. 

The betting public is all over them again heading into this one, which is why I believe there is value in fading them tonight.  I also think this is a letdown spot for the Blue Devils because they just beat a ranked Michigan State team last time out.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Temple is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC foes.  Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by 18 points or less.  Take Temple Friday.

15* Cavaliers/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5

Off back-to-back losses, including a painful 90-92 loss to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be very hungry for a victory Friday.  I look for them to roll over the Washington Wizards in blowout fashion as they take their frustration out on John Wall and company.

I have no doubt that Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league despite its mediocre 5-5 start.  It ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  It will be up at No. 1 in the league in this category by season's end.

I am also certainly that Washington is overvalued in the early going thanks to making the playoffs last year and its 7-3 start this season.  However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

Their three losses have come to the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, which are the three best teams that they have faced.  Their seven wins have come against the likes of the Magic (twice), Bucks, Knicks, Pacers (twice) and Pistons.  They have yet to beat a team of any significance.

The road team won all four meetings between these teams last year, and the Cavaliers have actually won five of their last seven meetings with the Wizards.  What is most impressive about that is the fact that they didn't have Lebron James OR Kevin Love for any of those seven games.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to Washington.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 92-90 win at Cleveland on ESPN Wednesday night, and they aren't going to be able to muster up the kind of focus it's going to take to beat Minnesota by more than 8 points to cover this spread.

Also, look for Greg Popovich to limit his star players' minutes knowing that the Spurs have a game on deck tomorrow against the Nets.  The Spurs don't have much of a bench as it is as they are playing without Tiago Splitter and Patrick Mills, while both Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are questionable.

Yes, the Timberwolves are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and they are off to a poor 3-7 start this season.  They are also battling injuries of their own right now.  Ricky Rubio (ankle), Nikola Pekovic (wrist) and Thaddeus Young (personal) are all expected to be unavailable Friday.

However, scheduling has been the biggest reason for the Timberwolves' poor start.  They have played seven of their first 10 games on the road.  In their three home games, they have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with their only loss coming to the Bulls (105-106) by a single point.

Despite being without Rubio, Young and Pekovic, the Timberwolves put together their most impressive performance of the season in a 115-99 win over the Knicks on Wednesday.  Kevin Martin scored 37 points, Mo Williams had 14 points and 13 assists, and Shabazz Muhammad added 17 points and eight boards in the win.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can survive with some injuries.

Minnesota has played San Antonio very tough recently.  In fact, it is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It won 110-91 as a 7.5-point home dog late last year, 108-95 on the road in 2013, and 107-83 at home in 2013 as well.  It has covered the spread in all four games it was a dog of 7.5 points or more against the Spurs during this stretch.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +9

The Toronto Raptors are a team that I have a lot of respect for and one that I have backed quite a bit in the early going.  However, after a 9-2 start straight up accompanied by a 7-4 ATS mark, this team is now overvalued and worth fading tonight.

The biggest reason I'm going to fade the Raptors tonight is because this is an extremely difficult spot for them emotionally.  They are coming off a 96-92 home win over the top team in the West in Memphis, and now they will be looking ahead to Saturday's game at Cleveland against Lebron James and company.  So, this is a letdown AND lookahead spot for the Raptors.

They won't be giving the kind of attention to the Bucks that they deserve.  Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  It has gone 7-5 straight up and a sensational 9-3 ATS in its 12 games this season.

Even the losses have been competitive as the Bucks have only lost twice all season by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to fail to cover the spread Friday, and I just don't see it happening.  They have won five of their last six, which includes road wins at Miami (91-84) and Brooklyn (122-118).

What I like about this Bucks team is that they defend, and they get that from their head coach Jason Kidd.  They have extraordinary length at almost all positions, and they are giving up just 96.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting.  They rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Rockets, Warriors and Spurs have been better.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Bulls/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings both could be missing key players tonight.  Derrick Rose (18.0 ppg) and Pau Gasol (18.6 ppg) are both questionable to return, while Rudy Gay (21.8 ppg) is also questionable for Sacramento.

The good news is that I like this UNDER no matter whether these three play or not, but if they don't play it's going to be an added bonus.  I fully expect a defensive battle between the Bulls and Kings on TNT tonight.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  Opponents are shooting just 42.9% against the Bulls, who rank 7th in the league in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions this year.

These teams have played in some low-scoring games in recent years.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Kings.  They have combined for 181, 169, 200, and 180 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 182.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls' last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Kings last 20 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Kings last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State +5

The Texas State Bobcats (5-5) are playing their best football of the season here of late. They have gone a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. This streak started with road wins at Louisiana Monroe (22-18) as a 2.5-point underdog and at New Mexico State (37-29) as a 7-point favorite. However, I have actually been more impressed with the Bobcats’ last two games, which were both losses.

They only lost 25-28 at home to Georgia Southern as a 12-point underdog on November 8th. They actually outgained the Panthers by 171 yards in the game and should have won. That's the same Georgia Southern team that is 7-0 in the Sun Belt with its only losses coming to NC State (by 1), Georgia Tech (by 3) & Navy.  The Bobcats' 20-24 road loss to South Alabama as 6-point dogs last week saw them outgain the Jaguars by 22 total yards for the game.

Texas State will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. At 5-5 on the season, they need one more win to become bowl eligible.  This will be Senior Night for the Bobcats as well, and they have several senior starters leading the way this season.  Arkansas State, meanwhile, may have a hard time being motivated for this one.

Arkansas State won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title each of the last three years, but it is guaranteed not to win it this year as it is 4-2 within the conference while Georgia Southern is 7-0.  The Red Wolves have already clinched bowl eligibility, so they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

While the Bobcats are playing well coming in, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost at home to Appalachian State 32-37 last week despite being 15-point favorites. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate, either. The Red Wolves were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 314-549 for the game, or by 235 total yards. Appalachian State led this game 37-20 before Arkansas State scored 12 points over the final 2:17 of the game in garbage time.

Texas State’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that is average 215 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It does have a lot of balance through, averaging 225 yards per game through the air on 64.0 percent completions as well. The weakness of the Arkansas State defense is against the run as it is allowing 175 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. That makes this a great matchup for the Texas State offense.

Arkansas State is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons. Texas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +7.5

Any time you’re backing the team with the worst record in the NFL this late in the season, there’s going to be some value. I certainly believe that is the case Thursday with the Oakland Raiders (0-10), who are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. They would love nothing more than to get it against one of their most hated rivals in the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3).

The Raiders have been fighting hard for weeks now, but they continually come up short. By their results, they clearly have not packed it in. Five of their last six losses have come by 11 points or less, and all six were against playoff contenders in San Diego (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle and Denver. This brutal schedule will have them battle-tested heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Kansas City is in a massive letdown AND lookahead spot here. It just beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday, and now it has Denver on deck at home next week with first place in the AFC West on the line.  They will have a hard time getting up emotionally for the Raiders enough to win this game by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover the spread.

The Chiefs are also way overvalued here because they have covered the spread in five consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and so have the oddsmakers, forcing them to inflate this line above the key number of seven.  Any time you get a home underdog in the NFL catching more than a touchdown, there's going to be some value.  That's especially the case in division rivalry games that are played much closer to the vest.  Most of the time, records can be thrown out the window in these games.

Oakland has gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kansas City over the past four seasons. In fact, the Raiders have outgained the Chiefs in seven of their last eight meetings. Sure, the Chiefs swept the season series last year, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. The Raiders outgained the Chiefs 274-216 in their 24-7 road loss. They also outgained the Chiefs 461-384 in their 31-56 home loss.

Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on any team (OAKLAND) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 99-57 (63.5%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 8-26 ATS in its last 34 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Roll with the Raiders Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3

The Indiana Hoosiers should not be an underdog at home to the SMU Mustangs tonight.  SMU is way overvalued here due to its No. 22 ranking.  That showed last time out in a 56-72 road loss at Gonzaga, and they have no business being the favorite after that performance.

Sure, there is a lot to like about SMU this season.  It went 27-10 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  It brought bring back three starters from that team, but the most important starter is out right now.

SMU forward Marcus Kennedy is being forced to sit out due to eligibility issues.  He is the team's second-leading returning scorer (12.4 ppg) and top rebounder (7.1 rpg) from last year.  That means they are down to two returning starters.  They shot just 31.1% against Gonzaga last time out.

Indiana only has two starters back this year as well, but it returns its most important player in PG Yogi Ferrell (19.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) from last year.  Also back is PF Troy Willaims (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and SG Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

I expect Indiana to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and that has shown already.  It beat Mississippi Valley State 116-65 and Texas Southern 83-64 while shooting a combined 61.7% against those teams.  It has shown improvement from deep, connecting on 55.3% of its 3-pointers this season.  They are tough to deal with because of their elite guard play.

"We're starting to formalize an offensive identity and I think when we look at our backcourt right now, what we envision is starting to come into place and we're basically playing with three point guards," coach Tom Crean said. "Ball movement should be a strength for us. It has to be."

Indiana is 12-2 at home against ranked opponents since the start of 2011-12.  They have won their last four, all against Big Ten opponents, while shooting 51.2 percent from the field.  Ferrell has averaged 20.0 points per game in those four games.

It's worth noting that Williams, Robinson and freshman Emmitt Holt are due back from suspensions tonight.  "I know they are anxious to get back. We are anxious to have them back, too," junior Nick Zeisloft said. "They will add a lot to our team."

The Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games when the line is +3 to -3.  Tom Crean is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of Indiana.  Crean is 22-9 ATS in November games as the coach of Indiana.  The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

15* UNC/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

This marks the second straight year that the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) have finished strong at the end of the season. They won six of their final seven games last year, and they have won three of their past four heading into this game with the Duke Blue Devils (8-2). They still need one more win to become bowl eligible, and after fighting back to get to this point, they aren’t about to give in now.

The Tar Heels have beaten Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home, while also topping Virginia on the road for their three wins in their last four games. Their only loss during this stretch came at Miami, which nearly upset Florida State at home last week. In fact, their solid play stretches back to a 43-50 road loss at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs five games ago. They have covered four of their last five against the spread.

UNC boasts an explosive offense that gives it a chance to win every game it is in. It is putting up 35.9 points and 430.0 yards per game this season. Marquise Williams is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The junior is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Williams also leads the team in rushing with 623 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

North Carolina has won 21 of its last 24 meetings with Duke. Sure, it has lost the last two, but those two losses came by a combined five points. The Blue Devils won 33-30 at home in 2012 and 27-25 on the road in 2013. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there is a ton of value in backing the road underdog Tar Heels catching six points, though I expect them to win this game outright.

Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year, just as it was last season. It has been living off of close wins over the past two seasons. In fact, it has won a combined seven games by a touchdown or less over the last two years. It is only outgaining teams 396.1 to 389.7 on the season in 2014, which isn’t what you would expect from an 8-2 team. It is overvalued because of its 8-2 record, though.

UNC is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. David Cutcliffe is 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Take North Carolina Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 69-67 road win at in-state rival Florida on Monday.  They will simply have a hard time matching the intensity level they played with in that game when they take on Drexel in the Charleston Classic today.

Florida is way down this season with all that it lost last year.  It has not played well in the early going, so that win over the Gators has the Hurricanes overvalued here.  This is a Miami team that went just 17-16 last year and returns only two starters from that squad.

Drexel comes in battle-tested after taking on two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year in Colorado and St. Joseph's.  It didn't get destroyed in either game.  It lost by 17 at Colorado as a 14-point dog and at home to St. Joseph's 49-52 as a 3-point favorite.

Miami loses five players from last year's team that scored at least 5.0 ppg or more.  That includes Rion Brown (15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Donnavan Kirk (7.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Its two returning starters are Manu Lecomte (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) and Tonye Jekiri (4.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriquez are solid, but this team just doesn't have that much talent.

Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MIAMI) - slow-down team from last season averaging 53 or less shots/game, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3-point shots or better are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Hurricanes are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Dragons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with Drexel Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Creighton won 84 games over the past three seasons thanks to an offense that lit up the scoreboard.  However, it is now in rebuilding mode under fourth-year head coach Greg McDermott, who rode son Doug McDermott to all this success in his first three years here.  McDermott was the consensus National Player of the Year and will be missed.

The Bluejays lose four starters from last year in McDermott (26.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Grant Gibbs (7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jahenns Manigat (7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  The only returning starter is G Austin Chatman (8.1 ppg, 4.4 apg).

I haven't been all that impressed with Creighton thus far in its 104-77 home win over Central Arkansas and its 84-66 home win against Chicago State.  It was a 24-point favorite against Chicago State and only won by 18 while shooting 44.8% from the floor and committing 17 turnovers.

Lon Kruger is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997.  Kruger is 24-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA again this season.  They made the playoffs last year and are well on their way to challenging for the top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.

The Raptors returned almost all of their scoring from last year, and they are off to an 8-2 start this season, which is good for 1st place in the East thus far.  Their only two losses have come against the Heat and Bulls.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game.

While the Raptors aren't getting much credit for their 8-2 start, the Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 10-1 start this season that has them in first place in the West.  This team isn't as good as their record as they have simply been fortunate in close games.

Seven of their 10 wins have come by single-digits this season.  They are in a massive letdown spot here off their impressive 119-93 home win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, which was for first place in the West.  They won't be bringing the kind of intensity it takes to beat the hungry Raptors tonight.

Toronto actually swept the season series with Memphis last year in two blowout victories.  It won 103-87 as a 6-point road underdog to the Grizzlies on November 13th, and it came back and put a 99-86 beat down on the Grizzlies as a 1-point home underdog in the rematch on March 14th.

Memphis is 2-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-27 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -2.5

Lebron James hasn't forgotten the sting of losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals last season.  I look for him to play with an extra edge tonight to help his new Cleveland Cavaliers knock off the defending champs at home going away.

The Cavaliers had really been playing very well prior to their 97-106 loss to Denver on Monday.  They had won four in a row, including a 127-94 victory over Atlanta the game prior.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game during that loss to the Nuggets.

The Spurs haven't resembled the defending champs at all.  They have already lost four games this season, including losses to the Kings, Suns, Pelicans and Rockets (81-98).  They have gone just 4-6 ATS in all games and have been overvalued all season.  They are again tonight only catching 2.5 points to the Cavaliers when it should be more.

One of the reasons the Spurs haven't been up to their level of play from last year is that they have been playing without starting center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli.  They remain without this underrated trio tonight against Cleveland.

The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.   The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Wednesday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet Cleveland Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 189.5

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on display once again in this one.

New York is scoring just 93.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting.  It is struggling in the new Triangle Offense, which is why it ranks 30th in the league in pace at 91.8 possessions per game.  It just struggles to find decent shots within the confines of the offense.

Milwaukee has been even worse than New York offensively.  It is putting up just 91.8 points per game on 43.8% shooting.  It ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 94.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only OKC and Philadelphia have been worse.

Both teams have played reasonably well defensively to keep them in games.  Milwaukee is giving up 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, ranking 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency.  It is allowing just 94.7 points per 100 possessions.  New York gives up 98.1 points per game on 44.9% shooting.

New York has only topped 100 points in one of its 11 games this season, while Milwaukee has only topped 97 points once all season, and that came in an overtime game.  The Bucks have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games this year, while the Knicks have given up 98 or fewer in seven of their 11 games.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games overall with combined scores of 168, 181, 193, 185, 163, 186 and 175 points.  That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +7

The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, and they have proven that of late by winning three of their last four games overall.  They come into this game against Akron with a ton of confidence as a result.

UMass should be 5-5 at worst had it gotten some better fortune in close games this year.  Indeed, five of its seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.  That includes home losses to Bowling Green (42-47) and Colorado (38-41), as well as road losses to Vanderbilt (31-34), Miami Ohio (41-42) and Toledo (35-42).

Just the fact that UMass has been able to go toe-for-toe with the likes of Bowling Green, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Toledo shows what it is capable of.  Its solid play this year has finally paid off with some results.  It has won three of its last four in blowout fashion over Kent State (40-17), Eastern Michigan (36-14) and Ball State (24-10) with its only loss coming by a touchdown at Toledo during this stretch.

The Minutemen are actually outgaining opponents on the season despite their 3-7 record, which is clearly the sign of a good team.  They have done so behind a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.1 points and 448.7 yards per game.  They have put up 480 or more total yards in six straight games, including 554-plus in four of those.

Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as well.  He is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year.  Tajae Sharpe is probably the best receiver in the MAC, catching 76 balls for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns to this point.

I realize that Frohnapfel (bone bruise) is questionable to play Tuesday, and this would be an even stronger play if he was for sure starting, but I still like UMass to cover the touchdown even if he doesn't go.  The backup is former Penn State transfer Austin Whipple, who is also the coach's son and a heck of a talent.

Akron is in a downward spiral, and I don't see it turning things around tonight.  It is 0-4 in its last four games overall to completely play itself out of the MAC Title race and likely out of a bowl bid.  After losing 10-27 to Bowling Green at home two weeks ago, the Zips went on the road and were pummeled by a terrible Buffalo team 24-55 last week.

The Zips have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming in, going 0-6 ATS.  Yet, week after week, they continue to get too much respect from the books.  They only managed 229 total yards against an awful Buffalo defense last week, while they gave up 536 total yards to the Bulls in an absolute laugher.

UMass has played Akron extremely tough the last two years, and this 2014 UMass team is much better than the last two versions.  The Minutemen actually went on the road in 2012 and won 22-14 as 14.5-point underdogs to the Zips.  They also covered last year in their tough 13-14 home loss to Akron as 7-point dogs.  I fully expect the Minutemen to not only stay within a touchdown of the Zips, but to also win this game outright.

The Zips are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.  These last four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing the Minutemen.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

Without question, the Duke Blue Devils are a more talented team than the Michigan State Spartans in 2014-15.  I look for them to make easy work of the Spartans tonight in Indianapolis in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN.

Duke returns three starters from last year in PG Quinn Cook (11.6 ppg, 4.4 apg), SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.9 ppg, 2.4 apg) and PF Amile Jefferson (6.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg).  It adds in one of the most talented freshman classes in the country in C Jahlil Okafor, PG Tyus Jones and SF Justise Winslow.

The Blue Devils are off to a fast start this season, beating Presbyterian 113-44 as a 39-point favorite, and topping Fairfield 109-59 as a 32.5-point favorite. Okafor (18.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Winslow (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way in scoring, while Jones (10.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) has also helped show that Mike Krzyzewski has struck gold with this freshman class.

Michigan State is in rebuilding mode in 2014-15.  It lost its top three scorers from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  It does bring back Branden Dawson (11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Denzel Valentine (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Travis Trice (7.3 ppg), but the loss of top freshman Javon Bess to a foot injury is really hurting this team.

The Spartans have been notorious for slow starts and big finishes under Tom Izzo, and 2014-15 is no exception.  They barely beat Navy 64-59 as a 17.5-point favorite in their opener on November 14th.  That's a Navy team that has gone 20-70 over the past three seasons combined, including 9-21 last year.  The Spartans stand little chance of being competitive against the Blue Devils tonight.

Duke owns Michigan State, going 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Spartans dating back to 1998.  That included a 71-61 win during the 2012-13 NCAA Tournament as a 2-point favorite.  Many of these meetings have been close, which is why Michigan State is 5-3 ATS, but I don't anticipate this game to go down to the wire at all given the discrepancy in talent.

Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Duke Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way undervalued right now due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have gone 5-3 straight up just 1-7 ATS, making the betting public gun-shy to back them.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back them as small home favorites over the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers come in well-rested as this will be just their second game in the past seven days.  All this extra time off has allowed them to correct their mistakes in practice, and they should be putting forth great efforts going forward.

Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the season on Saturday.  It beat a very good Phoenix team 120-107 as just a 7-point favorite.  It shot 52.9% from the field and held the Suns to 38.4% shooting.  It has four days off before that game, so the extra practice time certainly paid off, and it should again tonight.

Chicago just can't catch a break with Derrick Rose.  He is now dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss their last game against Indiana.  The Bulls lost to the Pacers 90-99 despite being 8.5-point favorites in that game.  Rose is doubtful to play tonight as well, so look for this Chicago offense to struggle once again without him.

The Clippers have dominated the Bulls the past two seasons.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago, winning those four games by an average of a ridiculous 20.5 points per game.  They won 112-95 on the road and 121-82 at home against the Bulls int heir two meetings last year.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers Monday.

20* Steelers/Titans AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) got the wake-up call they needed last week on a 20-13 road loss to the Jets. That will help them avoid a letdown this week against the Titans knowing that they need a win if they want to win the AFC North division. They cannot afford to lose to teams like this if they are going to make the playoffs, and I fully expect them to bounce back and win by a touchdown or more. They will also be extra motivated to lay it all on the line knowing that their bye is next week.

Pittsburgh was playing some great football prior to that loss to the Jets. It had beaten Houston (30-23), Indianapolis (51-34) and Baltimore (43-23) in impressive efforts by the offense the previous three weeks. The loss to the Jets was a complete fluke as they actually outgained them 362-275 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the win to New York. They will be much sharper with the football this week against Tennessee because of it.

The Titans are abysmal this year. They have gone through three different starting quarterbacks because the offense just hasn’t been able to get anything going. They played well in their opener against Kansas City, but haven’t played well since. Their only other win was a 16-14 home victory over the hapless Jaguars, and they were even outgained by 89 yards in that game.

Five of the Titans’ seven losses have come by 14 points or more, so they have been prone to the blowout regularly. They have actually been outgained by 50 or more yards in each of their last six games, and by 102 or more yards in three of those. They rank 31st in the league in total offense, averaging just 308.7 yards per game. They stand at 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 60.0 yards per game on the season.

Tennessee (2-7) won’t be able to keep up with a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 408.4 yards per game. The Steelers have been better defensively, too, giving up 347.0 yards per game compared to the 368.7 yards per game the Titans have allow. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining the opposition by an average of 61.4 yards per game on the season.

Rookie Zach Mettengerger has played OK in his two starts for the Titans, but he has not done anything special and will struggle against Dick LeBeau's complicated blitz schemes in this one.  In fact, the Steelers are 18-2 against rookie signla-callers since LeBeau returned as defensive coordinator in 2004.

Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-29 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Tennessee is 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Tennessee is 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 home games. The Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 3-12-2 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Stan Van Gundy, the new head coach in Detroit, certainly wants to stick it to his former team in Orlando.  The Pistons will be playing hard for their coach, and they'll be happy to return home from a grueling four-game road trip to take in the Magic tonight.

The Pistons grew up in that road trip as they played very competitively against some of the league's elite teams.  They went just 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS as all four games were competitive.  The lost 91-102 at Chicago, 103-107 at Washington, 88-95 at Memphis, and beat Oklahoma City 96-89.

The Orlando Magic are an improved team this season, but they are still just 4-7 and come into this game way overvalued against the more talented Pistons.  The Magic are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and that's why oddsmakers aren't giving them as many points as they should be.  The betting public has taken notice of this 6-0 ATS streak, and now it's time to fade the overvalued Magic.

As poor as Orlando has been on the road over the past two years, there's no way it should only be catching four points here.  Indeed, the Magic are an NBA-worst 6-42 on the road since the start of last season.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are a very tired team right now.  They have played four of their last five games on the road, and this will be their 5th game in 7 days.  They had games on the 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th of November.  They simply have nothing left in the tank right now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team won all three meetings last year in blowout fashion by 14 points or more.  The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings as well.  Detroit is 30-11 in its last 41 home meetings with Orlando. 

The Magic are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Orlando is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game.  The Magic are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23

The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They were an inexperienced team last year as they had to replace most of their scoring from a team that won the Big Ten Championship in 2012-12.  They finished just 17-15.

Bigger things can be expected of the Hoosiers this year as they'll be much more experienced.  They return two starters in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg 2013-14) and Troy Williams (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg).  They also return some key reserves led by Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

Indiana will have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten led by Ferrell.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. was a McDonald's All-American and one of the nation's top 3-point shooters as a high schooler and should be one of Indiana's top scorers this year.  Robinson will see a lot more time this year, and freshman Robert Johnson figures to get some run as well.

The Hoosiers put on a clinic in their opener in a 116-65 win over Mississippi Valley State as a 27-point favorite, covering the spread by a ridiculous 24 points.  They had five different players score 15 points or more, led by Blackmon Jr's 25 points.  They shot 66.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 73.0% from the free throw line.

Texas Southern is not a very good team.  It did go a respectable 19-15 last year in the second season under head coach Mike Davis.  Now, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference in 2014-15 with all they lose.

It's going to be impossible to replace SWAC Player of the Year Aaric Murray, who led the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.6 points and 2.5 blocks per game.  They lose four starters in all with the other three being DD. Scarver (12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), De'Angelo Scott (7.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Lawrence Johnson-Danner (7.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).

Texas Southern was expected to return one starter in Madarious Gibbs (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and top bench player Jose Rodriquez (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  However, both of these guys are hurt to start the season.  Rodriguez is out for the year with a knee injury, while Gibbs is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  So, the Tigers will essentially be playing without each of their top six scorers from last year.

It wasn't a pretty start for Texas Southern, which lost its opener by a final of 62-86 at Eastern Washington.  It shot just 30.0% (18-60) from the floor while allowing Eastern Washington to shoot 50% (32-64).  If they can lose by 24 points to EW on the road, they will certainly lose by 24-plus to Indiana tonight.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in November games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year and put an end to Kansas' 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Rick Barnes got off the hot seat last season by leading his young squad to 24 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.  Barnes now has all five starters back from last year, and he has added in the one of the nation's most highly-coveted freshmen in PF Myles Turner.  The Longhorns return their top six scorers and two key reserves from last year as well.

Turner's ability to hit outside shots allows C Cameron Ridley (11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 2012-13) room to dominate down low.  PG Isaiah Taylor (12.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.3 rpg) was one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 last year.  SF Jonathan Holmes (12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and SG Javan Felix (11.6 ppg, 2.8 apg) are two more returning starters on this deep, deep team.

The Longhorns had little trouble in Friday's 85-50 victory as an 18-point favorite against a solid North Dakota State squad.  Taylor had 18 points and seven rebounds, while Turner added 15 points and six boards in only 20 minutes.  Texas shot 48.4 percent and held the Bison to 27.4 while outrebounding them 51-32.

Alcorn State went just 12-19 last year.  While it does return three starters and two of its top three scorers from last year, it is clear that it's going to be a long season for the Braves.  They shot just 31.6 percent and allowed Cal to shoot 52.1 percent in a 91-57 road loss on Friday.  If Cal can beat Alcorn State by 34 points, I have little doubt that this talented Texas team will win by 29-plus at home.

Plays on a favorite (TEXAS) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Rick Barnes is 38-24 ATS in November games as the coach of Texas.  Bet Texas Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 193

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets square off Sunday in what I believe will be a defensive battle.  These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and that will be on display tonight.

The Rockets have gone 8-1 to the UNDER this season due to their improvement on the defensive end.  They have three of the best defenders in the league at their respective positions in C Dwight Howard, SF Trevor Ariza and PG Patrick Beverly.  Beverly has missed a few games due to injury, but he is expected to return Sunday and will shut down OKC's Reggie Jackson.

Houston is giving up just 91.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting this season.  It ranked No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 92.9 points per 100 possessions.  Its offense has taken a step back with the loss of Chandler Parsons and the injury to Terrance Jones as it is shooting just 44.1% this season.

Oklahoma City is playing without Kevin Durant AND Russell Westbrook, and as a result, points have been very hard to come by.  The Thunder are scoring just 92.0 points per game and shooting 43.3% from the floor.  They rank 28th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 96.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder know they aren't going to win any shootouts with anyone without Westbrook and Durant, so they have tried to shorten the games by playing at a slow pace.  Indeed, they rank 24th in the league in pace at 93.6 possessions per game.  They have been dominant defensively, giving up just 96.5 points per game and 43.5% shooting to the opposition this year.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 49-19 (72.1%) over the last five seasons.  Houston is 11-1 to the UNDER in its last 12 games off a win.  The UNDER is 14-5 in Thunder's last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions +1

The Arizona Cardinals can survive without Carson Palmer. However, they clearly aren’t going to be as strong of a team without him, and Drew Stanton has struggled in limited action this year. He has gone 2-1 as a starter without Palmer, but the two wins came against the likes of the Texans and Giants, while the other was a blowout loss to the Broncos. Stanton is completing just 49.5% of his passes on the season compared to Palmer’s 62.9%.

This Arizona team is one of the most overrated in the league. It got two defensive touchdowns late last week to get the win and cover against the Rams, and it has been getting lucky breaks like that all year. They are +12 in turnover differential on the season, which is tied for first in the NFL.  Regression to the mean is going to happen at some point for this team.  A closer look into the numbers shows that the Cardinals are nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.

The Cardinals rank just 24th in the league in total offense at 330.9 yards per game. They rank 15th in total defense at 352.8 yards per game and have been nowhere near as dominant as they get credit for on that side of the ball. They rank 21st in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 21.9 yards per game. They have been outgained by over 200 yards on the season.  Only one team (Cincinnati) ranked worse than them in yardage differential even has a .500 record or better, so they are in some pretty bad company.

Detroit, meanwhile, is the real deal this season. It has managed to go 7-2 despite playing without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for a good portion of the season. Johnson returned last week as the Lions beat the Dolphins 20-16 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Lions outgained the Dolphins 351-228 for the game, but they had a field goal blocked that was returned to their 3-yard line to set up Miami’s only touchdown. Otherwise, that game was a complete rout in the Lions' favor.

The reason the Lions have been able to play well without Johnson and Bush for stretches is because of their defense. Indeed, they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense AND total defense, giving up just 15.8 points and 283.4 yards per game. They are also 6th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 56.7 yards per game. You have to really look out for this team now that Johnson is back because the offense had underachieved up to this point, but it has the talent to be one of the best units in the NFL.

Arizona is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games since 1992. Detroit is 38-21 ATS in its last 59 versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or more rushing yards per game. Arizona has been good against the run but terrible against the pass (30th), giving up 274 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt through the air. That plays right into the Lions hands as they rely a lot more on the pass than the run to move the football.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -9

This game really has blowout written all over it. Simply put, the St. Louis Rams (3-6) aren’t going to be able to score enough points to keep up with Denver’s high-powered offense in this one. Peyton Manning will love the opportunity to go back indoors and play in a dome just like he used to in his Indianapolis days. He should thrive against the hapless Rams inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.

Manning leads a Denver unit that is putting up 31.8 points and 414.7 yards per game on the season to rank 3rd in the league in total offense. That is really impressive when you consider that it has faced a very tough schedule up to this point. It has already had two play two of the league’s top three defenses in San Francisco and Seattle, and it put up an average of 31.0 points per game against those two teams.

Many will hang onto St. Louis’ recent wins over San Francisco and Seattle as a barometer of what it is capable of. However, the Rams should have lost both of those games as they were outgained by 188 yards by the Seahawks and 70 yards by the 49ers. They have actually actually been outgained by 70 or more yards in five straight games, which includes blowout losses to the Cardinals (14-31), Chiefs (7-34) and 49ers (17-31) during this stretch.

Opposing defensive coordinators now have no problem stopping the Rams’ offense. They have caught on to Austin Davis’ tendencies, but the fact of the matter is that he simply doesn’t have much talent around him.  The Rams are expected to give the ball to Shaun Hill for this one, and the results are going to be the same or even worse.  Davis actually did a pretty good job of working with what he had, which isn't much.

The Rams rank 30th in the NFL in total offense at 310.2 yards per game.  They have scored 11.3 points per game while averaging 212.3 yards per game in their last three.  They have played five straight physical games against San Francisco (twice), Seattle, Kansas City and Arizona.  They don't have a whole lot left in the tank at this point, especially considering they have little to play for the rest of the way.

As stated before, they simply do not have the firepower on the offensive side of the ball to match the Broncos score for score and to stay within single-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread. A contributing factor to that will be this improved Denver stop unit. The Broncos are only giving up 314.1 yards per game this season to rank 5th in the NFL in total defense. Unlike last year, they have been dominant on both sides of the football in 2014.

The Broncos are 22-6 in their last 28 games overall with 21 of those victories coming by a touchdown or more. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. It is beating these teams by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle +1.5

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the defending champs as an underdog. Seattle is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games as a dog.  I believe you should take advantage almost any chance you get, especially this week against the overmatched Chiefs. The Seahawks obviously haven’t played up to their potential to this point, but that is the reason they are undervalued. They have still won three in a row coming in, and their numbers are just as good as they were last year.

Seattle put up 510 total yards on the Giants last week and I would argue that the offense is more explosive than it was a year ago. That has been proven in the numbers as the Seahawks rank 10th in the league in total offense this year at 365.3 yards per game. They have put up an average of 26.7 points per game as well. Russell Wilson continues to show why he is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league with what he can do with his arm and his legs.

The Seahawks have had a banged-up offensive line all season.  They finally are getting healthy as both tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger have returned to the lineup.  Marshawn Lynch has been his same old dominant self as a result.  Lynch rushed for 140 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants last week as the Seahawks racked up 350 yards on the ground as a team.

While the Seahawks aren’t No. 1 in the NFL in total defense like they were a year ago, they are still damn close and have an elite stop unit. They are only giving up 21.2 points per game and 306.7 yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense. They rank 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 58.3 yards per game. Keep in mind that they have also faced a brutal schedule up to this point, which is always the case for the defending champs.

Kansas City has done a nice job of fighting back from an 0-2 hole to win six of its last seven games overall. However, that winning streak is the reason I believe it is overvalued here. All six of those wins outside of St. Louis, which is one of the worst teams in the NFC, came against AFC opponents. Seattle will be the best team that the Chiefs have faced this year, aside from perhaps the Broncos, which was one of their three losses.

Last week, the Chiefs were dominated in the box score by the Bills, getting outgained 278-364 for the game, but they managed to erase a 13-3 deficit to win 17-13. They were aided by three turnovers from the Bills. They won’t be given those same gifts this week, and when they get dominated in the box score by the Seahawks, they will lose like they should.

Kansas City ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 332.0 yards per game. Alex Smith remains a dink-and-dunk passer, and that is not going to work against this physical Seattle defense. Smith is going to be forced to try to make some plays over the top, and I don’t believe he is capable of doing so. He also lacks the weapons to do it.  In fact, the Chiefs have not had a touchdown by a wide receiver all season.  That is absolutely pathetic and prevents the Chiefs from being among the elite teams in the league.

Smith is a good game manager, but when they need him to really step up and make plays against elite defenses like Seattle, he simply isn’t equipped to do it. A good example of that came back on October 5th against the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 2nd in the league in total defense. The Chiefs managed just 17 points and 265 total yards in that game, including just 175 passing. Smith didn’t make enough plays against the 49ers to win, and he won’t this week, either.

Seattle is a sensational 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons & 15-2 ATS as a dog in its last 17 overall. The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seattle is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Chiefs are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) are still very much alive in the NFC South race. They are just one game behind the Saints (4-5) for first place in the division, and they own the tiebreaker as well after beating New Orleans at home back in Week 1. That’s why motivation will not be a factor for this team, which has to have a lot of confidence that it can go on the road and win again after beating the Bucs 27-17 last week.

It was the second straight solid performance for the Falcons away from home. They had gone over to London in their previous game and should have beaten the Detroit Lions, but they let a 21-0 lead get away from them and lost 21-22. That narrow loss to the Lions doesn’t look bad at all considering Detroit is 7-2 on the season and one of the best teams in the NFC.

Carolina is far from the team it was a year ago. It has all kinds of problems on both sides of the football. It has only won one of its last eight games overall. The Panthers have been blown out repeatedly during this stretch, losing to the likes of Pittsburgh (19-37) by 18, Baltimore (10-38) by 28, Green Bay (17-38) by 21, New Orleans (10-28) by 18, and Philadelphia (21-45) by 24. They will now be working on a short week as well after losing to the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

There is nothing to like about the Panthers on either side of the football. They rank 25th in the league in total offense at 320.8 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 376.8 yards per game. That leaves them at 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 56.0 yards per game.

The Panthers have actually been outgained in nine straight games since their opener against Tampa Bay. They have also been outscored by 8.3 points per game on the season as they are yielding 28.1 per game defensively and scoring 19.8 per game on offense.  They have allowed 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games while yielding an average of 32.5 points per game during this stretch.

Admittedly, the Falcons don’t have a very good defense, but they have played better on this side of the football in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of 19.5 points per game in their last two, so they have shown some progress on defense of late unlike the Panthers, who just seem to get worse each week.

What makes the Falcons the play this week is their offense, which has produced 24.3 points and 369.7 yards per game to rank 8th in the NFL in total offense. It’s been nice to see what Matt Ryan can do when he has a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White at his disposal.  The Atlanta offense will be the difference in this one as it will consistently put up points on this weak Carolina defense.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – after having lost six or seven out of their last eight games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -7

I simply trust the New Orleans Saints more than the Cincinnati Bengals right now. They have done an excellent job of fighting back from a 2-4 start to win two of their last three games with their only loss coming in overtime to the 49ers. They blew out both the Packers (44-23) at home and the Panthers (28-10) on the road, and they are fully capable of doing the same to the Bengals this week.

One thing that really stands out about that loss to the 49ers last week is that they simply gave it away by committing three turnovers. They actually outgained the 49ers 423-330 for the game, or by 93 total yards. They obviously should have won, but the fact that they didn’t has made this line smaller than it should be.

I really do not trust the Bengals to perform well right now. They have gone just 2-3-1 in their last four games overall with all three losses coming via blowout against New England (17-43), Indianapolis (0-27) and Cleveland (3-24). The loss to the Browns last week was the most troubling because they were dominated so handily. The Browns actually outgained them 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards, in their 24-3 win in Cincinnati.

That’s right, the Cincinnati offense was held to just 165 total yards against the Browns. It also committed four turnovers in the loss. Andy Dalton was abysmal, completing just 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards with three interceptions. I don’t believe he can match Drew Brees score for score in this one, which is what it’s going to take for the Bengals to stay within a touchdown. I’ll gladly bet against Dalton with the way he has been playing of late.

Brees is hitting on all cylinders again this season. He leads a New Orleans unit that is putting up 27.9 points per game while ranking 2nd in the league in total offense at 435.0 yards per game. He should have his way with a Cincinnati defense that ranks 30th in the league in giving up 391.9 yards per game. So, the entire problem isn’t all on Dalton’s shoulders because the defense has been atrocious as well.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-1 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 home game. It's also worth noting that the Saints haven't lost back-to-back home games since 2009.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and it will be another rowdy atmosphere Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division opponent. The Bengals are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss by 21 points or more. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. It is coming back to win by an average of 19.0 points per game in this spot. Cincinnati is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Road teams are 7-21 ATS in the last 28 games involving the Bengals.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Arizona State/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) are way overvalued right now due to their five straight victories and No. 6 playoff ranking heading into this showdown with Oregon State. They are also in a bit of a letdown spot here off their huge win over Notre Dame last week in which the Fighting Irish simply handed them the win. They committed five turnovers and did not win despite gaining 487 total yards.

The Beavers certainly want to make a bowl game and will be fighting the rest of the way for two wins in their final three games to try and get to one. They are undervalued right now after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. That’s why they are catching 9.5 points at home against the Sun Devils this week. Asking ASU to go on the road and beat the Beavers by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

ASU is extremely fortunate to be 8-1 this season. It has numerous close wins this year, including a 3-point win over Utah and a 4-point win over USC thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. The Sun Devils have only outgained one of their last seven opponents by more than 68 yards, yet they have gone 6-1 during this stretch.

The Sun Devils are winning the turnover battle of late as they are +6 in their last five games, which has been the difference. You can’t count on turnovers when predicting outcomes of games.  They got 28 points off of turnovers last week against Notre Dame, and have received multiple turnovers in three of their last four games. 

The Beavers have been very good with the ball this season, committing just five turnovers in six Pac-12 games.  Look for that trend to continue and for Mike Riley's team to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset because they are not going to give the game to ASU like so many teams have before them.

The weakness of the Arizona State defense is clearly against the pass. It gave up 355 passing yards in its 27-62 home loss to UCLA back on September 25th. It allowed 313 to Colorado, 273 to USC and 446 to Notre Dame as well. The strength of the Oregon State offense is its passing game. It is averaging 280 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt. I look for its offense to move the football at will through the air against this ASU defense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings between Arizona State and Oregon State. The Beavers have won each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils in Corvallis. That’s why the home team has been favored in each of the last eight meetings because home field means so much. Getting the Beavers as a big home dog here certainly shows that there is value in backing them given this recent history of home dominance.

Oregon State is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games following two or more consecutive overs. The Beavers are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games off two straight losses to conference opponents. Oregon State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.  It is coming back to win 31.6 to 21.9 in this spot. Mike Riley is 9-2 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite as the coach of Oregon State. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons struggled in the early going and are just 3-6 on the season.  That's why they are so undervalued right now because of this slow start, but they have been playing much better since an 0-3 start.

Indeed, the Pistons have won three of their last six games overall, including a 96-89 road win at Oklahoma City last night.  They lost to Utah (96-97) at home, and lost to Chicago (91-102) and Washington (103-107) both on the road.  They have been very competitive in each of their last six games, and their biggest loss all season has come by 12 points.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.  They are 8-1 on the season, but nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.  Indeed, all eight of their wins have come by 12 points or less, including six by 8 points or fewer.

The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall showing how overvalued they have been of late.  They only beat Oklahoma City 91-89 as a 7-point favorite, lost to Milwaukee 92-93 as a 4.5-point favorite, beat the Lakers 107-102 as a 10-point favorite, and beat the Kings 111-110 as a 5-point favorite in their last four games, respectively. 

I would argue that the Pistons are as good or better than all four of those teams that played Memphis down to the wire.  The Grizzlies came from way behind to beat the Kings on Thursday, and got the game-winner with only a few ticks remaining from Courtney Lee.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here as well off such an emotional comeback win.

Detroit is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games after three straight games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas PK

The LSU Tigers (7-3) are in an absolutely terrible spot here. They are emotionally deflated from their loss to the Crimson Tide in overtime last week. That was their “Game of the Year”, so to speak, and it will be impossible for them to get back up off the mat and bring their best effort against the Razorbacks this week.

The Tigers are going to need their best to beat this improved Arkansas squad, and they just won't have it this weekend.  That was a physically draining game against the Crimson Tide last week, and now they'll be up against another physical football team that loves to pound the rock and beat up opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.

Yes, Arkansas has not won an SEC game over the past two seasons, but that is no indication of what kind of team this is. It has simply been on the wrong end of many close games against the top teams in the SEC. That includes losses to Mississippi State (10-17) and Alabama (13-14) by a combined eight points, which are two of the top five teams in the country right now. They also lost to Texas A&M (28-35) in overtime.  If they can play with those three teams, they can certainly beat LSU at home.

The Tigers have lost three games this year despite playing a home-heavy schedule with only two true road games this year. They have not played well in those road games, either, losing at Auburn 7-41 and beating a down Florida team 30-27. I just don’t trust them on the road in this spot with the hangover effect from the Alabama game proving to be too much for them to overcome.

Arkansas also wants revenge from a brutal last-second loss to LSU last year. It went into Death Valley and had a 27-24 lead late as a 28-point underdog. The Tigers would get a 99-yard drive that culminated in a 49-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Jennings to Travin Dural with only 1:15 remaining to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks also need another two wins to become bowl eligible, and this is one that they must get.  They will be motivated as well to put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Fayetteville as this will be a night game.  Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees, so don't expect LSU to be thrilled about going to play in a physical, cold weather game either.

LSU almost exclusively relies on the run this season. It is averaging 221 rushing yards per game to just 177 passing yards per contest. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Razorbacks. They are giving up just 137 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against teams that average 203 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  So, they are holding the opposition to 66 yards per game less than their season averages.

They held Alabama to just 66 rushing yards on 32 carries, Northern Illinois to 123 yards on 32 carries, and Mississippi State to 128 yards on 35 carries, which are three powerful running teams.  Those numbers really stood out to me because if they can stop those three teams' running games, they can certainly stop LSU's rushing attack.

Les Miles is 7-27 ATS off a two-game home stand as the coach of LSU. Miles is 12-27 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of LSU. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

Finally, the Razorbacks have had two weeks of rest heading into this one after last playing on November 1st. Pretty much every situational factor is in their favor in this one, and I'm not so certain that they aren't the better team as it is.  This is certainly a great matchup for them as well.  That's why they have earned the status as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Florida State/Miami ACC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (9-0) at this short of a price. I believe it would be wise to take advantage and side with the defending champs, who just seem to have a will to win no matter the situation. They may not have been completely focused this season up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that they are 9-0. The Hurricanes will certainly have their full attention this week.

Because Florida State has gone just 2-7 ATS in its nine games this year, the betting public actually has wanted to stay away from them in recent weeks. They obviously came into 2014 with the kind of lofty expectations that were simply impossible to live up to considering their schedule got much tougher this year. I also believe that this poor ATS record is why we are getting the opportunity to back the Seminoles at such a great price this week.

While Miami is a quality team and improved over a year ago, I still don’t believe it has what it takes to pull off this caliber of upset. Its six wins this season have come against the likes of UNC, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Duke, Arkansas State and Florida A&M. I wouldn’t say any of those six teams are quality opponents. The Hurricanes’ three losses have come against their toughest three opponents in Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31) all by double-digits.

Florida State has played the tougher schedule this year, beating the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson (without Winston) and Oklahoma State. It has put up 31 or more points in every game this year aside from that Clemson game, which Winston didn't play in. It is averaging 37.9 points per game on the season. Winston just has a knack for playing his best football when the game is in the balance, so if this one goes down to the wire, my money is on him rather than Miami freshman Brad Kaaya.

The Hurricanes figure to rely a lot on running back Duke Johnson in this one. Well, the Seminoles have proven more than capable of stopping the run. They are giving up 135.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. I look for their focus to be on shutting Johnson down and making Kaaya try and beat them, which I don’t think the freshman is capable of doing.

The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. FSU beat Miami 41-14 last year for its fourth straight victory in this series. It outgained the Hurricanes 517-275 for the game.  After dropping from No. 2 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings, look for the Seminoles to play an inspired football game against Miami because of it.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have won four of their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.

What I like most about the Magic is that they don't get blown out too often.  They have only lost by double-digits twice all season, and those game way back early in the year in their 1st and 3rd games of the season against the Pelicans and Raptors, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.

Orlando has really been stockpiling talent, and it's starting to pay off.  Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), Evan Fournier (17.9 ppg) and Tobias Harris (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are really having solid seasons.  These aren't your household names, but this trio ranks right up there with the very best in the league.

The Wizards are 6-2 this season, but I believe they are a big overvalued here because of it.  Their six wins have come against the likes of Orlando (105-98), Milwaukee, New York, Indiana (twice) and Detroit.  All five of those teams that their six wins have come against currently have losing records on the season.  Only two of their twins have come by more than 7 points this year.

Sure, the Wizards did beat the Magic earlier this season by 7 points, but that just puts the Magic in revenge mode heading into this one.  That should help them overcome the tough 4 games in 5 nights situation, which is the reason this line is as high as it is.  They will use that motivation to help them push through possibly having tired legs, though fatigue isn't as big of a factor this early in the year.

Washington is 12-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Washington is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +28.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. That could not be more evident than the fact that they have gone 8-1 against the spread in their nine games. They are finally getting the respect they deserve not only from the playoff committee with their No. 4 ranking, but also the oddsmakers. They are now overvalued this week laying four touchdowns to the Jayhawks on the road.

TCU has only played three true road games all season. One was a 56-0 win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. Another resulted in a loss to Baylor (58-61) as they allowed 782 total yards to the Bears, and the other was a one-point win at West Virginia (31-30) in a game they probably should have lost, but the Mountaineers committed five turnovers to gift-wrap the win for them.

Kansas has actually played pretty well at home this year. It is 3-2 at home with all three of its victories coming in Lawrence. That includes a 24-10 win over a solid Central Michigan team from the MAC, and a 34-14 win against Iowa State last week. The Jayhawks have only lost one Big 12 game by more than 23 points this season, and that was a 60-14 loss at Baylor, which just beats down everyone at home. They also played Oklahoma State tough in a 20-27 home loss as an 18-point dog.

That game against the Cyclones last week was awfully impressive. The Jayhawks dominated from start to finish, and the 20-point result was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cyclones 514-373 for the game, or by 141 total yards. Michael Cummings threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, while Corey Avery and Troy Pierson each rushed for over 100 yards in the win.

Interim head coach Clint Bowen has really lifted the spirits of these players since the firing of Charlie Weis.  All of their hard work finally payed off last week in that 34-14 win over the Cyclones, and now they will have supreme confidence in what Bowen is doing.  This team really feels like they can compete with TCU, and I look for them to show it on the field Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are in a massive letdown spot here off their big win over Kansas State last week. They are also feeling pretty good about themselves after moving up to No. 4 in the playoff rankings. They could also start to feel the pressure from that ranking and not play their best because of it. Either way, this is a tough spot for them, especially asking them to win by more than four touchdowns on the road when they haven’t played that well away from home.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Jayhawks only lost by 10 at TCU as a 24-point dog last year and by 14 at home as an 18.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs in 2012. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think as well, and for the Jayhawks to stay within the inflated number for a third straight season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10

The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion.  They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15

I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad.  They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg).  Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.

The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point.  Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.

The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year.  They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year.  They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.

The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -2.5

The Clemson Tigers (7-2) have done a remarkable job of moving forward in the right direction with six straight wins despite only having star quarterback DeShaun Watson for two of those games. Those were the first two of the streak, and the Tigers put up a combined 91 points against UNC and NC State with Watson at the helm. Well, he is expected to return as the starter this week, giving the offense a huge boost.

Clemson was held to an average of 22.5 points per game over its last four with Cole Stoudt as the quarterback in wins over Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to win all four games, but it was because the defense held all four of those opponents to 20 or fewer points and an average of 14.0 points per game.

For the season, this Clemson defense is only allowing 18.4 points and 252.3 yards per game to rank second in the country in total defense. In fact, it has allowed 273 yards or fewer in five consecutive games coming in. That includes 119 yards to Wake Forest, 170 yards to Syracuse, and 156 yards to NC State.

Georgia Tech has won three in a row in blowout fashion, and I believe it is overvalued as a result. The Yellow Jackets have essentially been gift-wrapped all three of those wins as their opponents have committed a combined 11 turnovers during this stretch. They are not going to continue to be so fortunate in the turnover department.

The Tigers last played on Thursday, November 6th. While normally two extra days of rest wouldn’t be a big deal, it is in this situation. Any time you get some extra preparation before facing Georgia Tech it’s a big deal because the triple-option is one of the toughest schemes to prepare for.

The Yellow Jackets obviously rely heavily on the run as they average 55 attempts for 336 yards per game compared to 15 pass attempts for 146 yards per game. Perhaps no team in the country is more prepared to stop the triple-option than Clemson. It is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.

The Tigers have won their last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets in blowout fashion. They won 55-31 at home last year and 47-31 at home in 2012. The Tigers should put up another big number on this Georgia Tech defense, which is yielding 408.7 yards per game. Watson has been brilliant when he’s been healthy, completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 147 yards and three scores.

Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia Tech. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing its last game on the road.  Take Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* Tulsa/UCF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -19

The UCF Knights are going to be highly motivated for a win Friday when they host the Golden Hurricane. They are coming off a 29-37 loss at UConn last time out in a game they never should have lost. They actually outgained the Huskies by 102 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, which cost them the win.  They are still 3-1 within the AAC and right in the hunt for the conference title just a half-game back.

They have had two weeks off since that loss, while Tulsa played SMU on Saturday and will be working on a short week. That extra rest will certainly come in handy here, and it will give the Knights a chance to correct their mistakes. They have actually won three of their last four games despite committing a combined 14 turnovers during this stretch. If they just take care of the football, they will have no problem winning this game by 20-plus points, which I fully expect them to do.

The Knights won their last home game by 20 points over Temple (34-14) in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. They outgained the Owls 466-182 for the game and forced four turnovers. That is a very good Owls team that has a win over East Carolina this year. If they can dominate Temple at home like that, they can certainly do the same against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane really do not have much to play for the rest of the way. They are 2-7 this year and are coming off an unconvincing 38-28 home win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. They had lost seven straight prior to that win, including road losses to Memphis (20-40), Colorado State (17-42) and Florida Atlantic (21-50). UCF is every bit as good as those three teams, if not better.

Tulsa is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.  UCF Is 4-0 in home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Home-field advantage is obviously going to be huge in this one for the Knights against a Tulsa team that has been atrocious on the road.

The Knights have really played well offensively of late, averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards per game in their last two contests. They should have no problem moving the football and scoring points against this pathetic Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 39.2 points, 484 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play against opponents that are only averaging 26.4 points, 381 yards, and 5.5 per play on offense. This is easily one of the worst defenses in the entire country.

Plays against a road team (TULSA) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1992. The Knights are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

Tulsa is 1-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS after having lost two out of its last three games over the last two years. UCF is 8-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14

The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament.  They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.

The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48.  They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48.  They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.

The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate.  So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.

Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game.  He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.

Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes.  This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.

Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record.  While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.

They return just two starters from last year.  However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury.  The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.

The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons.  They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg).  They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well.  Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.

Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks.  This is an under bettors' dream tonight.  Both teams love to slow it down and play at a snail's pace, which will lead to an easy cash on the UNDER in this one.

New York has really been struggling to learn the Triangle Offense, which is why it is putting up just 91.6 points per game this season on 43.7% shooting.  It has yet to score 100 points in any game this season.  Utah has been a little better offensively, but it is still just scoring 97.6 points per game on the year.  It has failed to top 97 points in any of its last four games.

Because the Knicks are lost offensively, they rank dead last (30th) in the league in pace at 91.2 possessions per game.  Utah also likes to slow it down, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game.  Fewer possessions equal fewer points, which is precisely how this game will play out tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Knicks and Jazz, and this was before the Knicks went to this new offense. They have combined for 175, 189 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 193, showing you that there is value on this UNDER based on the head-to-head history.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo +5

Favorites in primetime games this year have made the betting public a ton of money. I believe that’s a contributing factor as to why the Dolphins are 5-point home favorites over the Bills in this one as the books don’t want to get burnt again. That’s a big reason why the Bills are showing value this week as 5-point dogs when they should only be 3-point dogs at the most when you factor in home-field advantage as I believe these are pretty equal teams.

Buffalo is gone 3-2 since Kyle Orton became the starting quarterback. Its only losses have come to New England and Kansas City, which are two of the best teams in the AFC. It also went on the road and beat Detroit 17-14 in his first start, which is in my opinion the best team in the NFC. Orton has thrown for over 250 yards in four of his five starts this year to really pick up the offense.

That game against the Chiefs last week should have gone the Bills’ way, but they let a 13-3 lead slip away from them due to committing three turnovers and losing by a final of 13-17. They outplayed the Chiefs, outgaining them 364-278 for the game, or by 86 total yards. I believe that loss is also a contributing factor as to why this spread is at 5 instead of 3.

While Buffalo should have won last week, Miami should never have had a chance to beat Detroit. It was dominated in the box score in that game, getting outgained 228-351 by the Lions, or by 129 total yards. The only reason it was close was due to a blocked field goal by the Dolphins that they returned to the 3-yard line to set up their only touchdown of the game. That was a 10-point swing in the game at the time.

Miami is still getting a lot of respect for its three-game winning streak prior to that loss to Detroit against the likes of Chicago, Jacksonville and San Diego. Well, all three of those wins are looking worse and worse by the week as the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers are all broken right now. The only real impressive win the Dolphins have this season was back in Week 1 against the Patriots back when New England was broken as well.

Buffalo simply has Miami figured out. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Dolphins, outscoring them a combined 71-31 in the process. They have also outgained them 973 (324.3 yards/game) to 686 (228.7 yards/game), or by an average of 95.6 yards per game. Their defense clearly has this Miami offense figured out, limiting them to just 10.3 points per game in their three consecutive victories.

The Dolphins have been relying on the pass quite a bit this season in their new offense. Well, the Bills have held four of their last five opponents to less than 200 yards passing, which is no small feat in today’s game. For the season, the Bills are surrendering just 20.2 points and 319.9 yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total defense.

The Bills are allowing 96 per game and 3.7 per carry on the ground, and 224 per game and 6.2 per attempt through the air, which are both elite numbers.  This will likely be an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between two solid defensive teams, which also favors the underdog.

Buffalo is 42-24 ATS in its last 66 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. Miami is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after covering the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Bulls/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Bulls are 6-2 this season while the Raptors are 7-1.  A big reason for both of their successes is because they each get after it on the defensive end of the court.

The Bulls are holding teams to 98.4 points per game and 42.7% shooting.  The Raptors are limiting foes to 96.4 points per game and 46.2% shooting.  Toronto ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 12th.

These teams have been prone to defensive battles when they have gotten together recently.  They have combined for 186 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They are averaging a combined 177.4 points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  There is clearly a ton of value in this under based on that alone.

Chicago is 13-3 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or less assists over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 15-3 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Raptors last 27 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +9

The UTSA Roadrunners had big expectations coming into the year. They were thinking they could win a Conference USA Title thanks to playing in a weak division. Many picked them to do so, including myself. But my opinion on this team has changed drastically from the start of the year. There just isn’t much to like about the Roadrunners, who are 2-7 and in the midst of a lost season.

The reason UTSA has struggled this year is due to its offense that simply cannot move the football and score points with any consistency. Indeed, the Roadrunners are putting up just 16.9 points per game this season while ranking 125th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense at 282.1 yards per game. They have been held to 20 or fewer points in five straight games. I just don’t trust that this UTSA offense is capable of scoring enough points to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this 9-point spread.

While it’s not saying much, the fact of the matter is that Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the country over a year ago. They have won three games this season and have been much more competitive in the losses, aside from a blowout at the hands of Marshall last week. Well, the Thundering Herd are likely to go 12-0 this year, so that’s no surprise.

Unlike the Roadrunners, the Eagles do have a respectable offense that has kept them in ball games. They are averaging 370.6 yards per game on the season. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as the numbers show when you consider the opposition faced. They are giving up 452 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 437 yards per game. They have certainly faced a more difficult schedule than UTSA, yet they have a better record (3-7).

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Southern Miss and UTSA have played the same three teams this year. Both are 0-3 against those teams, but there is a distinct difference. The Eagles are getting outscored by 16.3 points per game against those three teams, but only getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. The Roadrunners are getting outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 132.7 yards per game against them.

UTSA has not played well at home at all this year.  It is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its three home games.  It lost to New Mexico 9-21 as a 16.5-point favorite, only beat Florida International 16-13 as an 8-point favorite, and lost to UTEP 0-34 as a 14-point favorite.  That 34-point loss to the Miners happened just two games ago and gives you an indication of the kind of football the Roadrunners are playing of late.  They only gained 70 yards of total offense in that loss.

Plays on road underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) – after a loss by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Golden Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight for many more reasons other than the fact that the defensive intensity will be amplified considering this is a National TV game.

The Houston Rockets haven't missed a beat this season since trading away Chandler Parsons and replacing him with Trevor Ariza.  They got an upgrade on defense and a slight downgrade on offense.  Arizona has been a big reason for their early success en route to a 6-1 record thus far.

The Rockets actually lead the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 92.5 points per 100 possessions.  They haven't allowed an opponent to score 100 points yet, giving up just 90.9 points per game on 40.7% shooting.  That's a big reason why they are 7-0 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Minnesota has quietly been competitive this year, but it suffered a huge blow when starting point guard Ricky Rubio suffered a serious ankle injury a couple games ago that's going to keep him out for a couple of weeks.  It hurts their offense tremendously, but they actually become a better defensive team without Rubio on the floor.

That has been evident in the two games since Rubio got hurt.  Minnesota was tied with Orlando 94-94 at the end of regulation on November 7th for 188 combined points before overtime.  It lost 92-102 at Miami the next night in two games that would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime.  The Timberwolves shot just 43.0% from the field against the Magic, and 40.2% against the Heat.

Houston has combined for 199 or fewer points with all seven of its opponents this season, while Minnesota has combined for 194 or fewer combined points with four of its six opponents this season when you don't count overtime.  These two facts alone show that there is value in backing the UNDER 200.5 points in this game.

Minnesota is 21-9 to the UNDER as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 to the UNDER in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in two more more consecutive games coming in.  The Rockets are 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  Houston is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts -3.5

The UMass Minutemen get a rare opportunity to play on a nationally televised stage Wednesday night in front of their home fans at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. They will certainly be jacked up for this one, while Ball State could suffer a letdown here. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to hated rival Northern Illinois at home last week, and now their chances of making a bowl game are slim to none at 3-6 on the year.

UMass has a huge edge in rest heading into this one. It last placed on October 25th against Toledo, while Ball State faced NIU last Wednesday on November 5th. The Minutemen have had essentially two and a half weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go in this one.

The Minutemen are the definition of a team that is better than their record would indicate. They have gone 2-7 straight up this season, but are a sensational 7-2 ATS because they have lost so many close games. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Their most impressive performance of the year may have come in a losing effort last time out against Toledo. They only lost 35-42 on the road as 17.5-point underdogs and were only outgained by 23 yards by the Rockets, who are 5-1 in the MAC this season. If they can play with the Rockets on the road, they can certainly play with anyone in this conference.

Despite being 2-7, the Minutemen are only getting outgained by an average of 23.0 yards per game. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 30.8 points and 435.3 yards per game this season. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,921 yards with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.

I really like the way that the Minutemen have played in their last three games coming in.  Prior to that narrow 7-point loss at Toledo, they had beaten Kent State 40-17 on the road followed by a 36-14 home victory over Eastern Michigan.  They racked up 482 yards of offense on the Golden Flashes, 562 yards on the Eagles, and 497 yards on the Rockets.  Dating back further, they have now amassed at least 482 yards of offense in each of their last five games.

Ball State is every bit as bad as its 3-6 record would indicate. It has only outgained two opponents all season. One was Colgate in the opener, and the other was Akron a couple weeks ago in a game the Zips were playing without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl. The Cardinals are getting outgained by an average of 45.4 yards per game on the season. Take away the Colgate game, and that number jumps to 74.9 yards per game.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on turf. UMass is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games. The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. UMass is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet UMass Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are hated rivals who have met in the Eastern Conference Finals each of the last two years.  These games are always played closer to the vest, and the defensive intensity will be there because of it.  That's especially the case considering this game will be shown on National TV.

The difference this year is that both teams are without a ton of their scoring from last season.  The Heat are without Lebron James and Ray Allen, while the Pacers are currently playing without Paul George, David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson.

To no surprise, Indiana has really struggled offensively this year.  It is scoring just 93.0 points per game on 42.6% shooting, which includes an overtime game.  It has failed to score more than 98 points in any game this season.

What I like about this play is that both teams play at very slow paces.  Not surprisingly, Indiana ranks 27th in the league in pace at 93.4 possessions per game.  It also ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Miami isn't looking to get up and down the floor to put up a ton of shots, either.  It ranks 21st in the league in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  It has shot 48.1% from the field this year, which is very impressive, but it's also unsustainable moving forward.

The Pacers and Heat have combined for 191 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 meetings overall.  I certainly do not foresee them getting to 190 tonight given the circumstances for the Pacers, who simply have no offensive firepower with all of their injuries.  They know they have to try to win games by limiting possessions, which is what they will try and do again tonight.

Indiana is 20-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 77-47 to the UNDER in its last 124 games following a game where it made 55% of its shots or better.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as these are two teams with two of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA.

As you know, the Thunder are playing without their two superstars in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  However, they are also playing without Andre Roberson and Perry Jones, so they really lack playmakers right now. 

The Thunder are only shooting 44.7% from the floor while averaging 92.0 points per game offensively.  They have been lost on offense, which is why they rank 24th in the league in pace, averaging just 94.0 possessions per game.  They are tied for 28th in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City has had to make up for it on the defensive end, where it has been solid.  Opponents are only scoring 98.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting against them.  They have Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams holding down the fort inside.

Milwaukee hasn't been very good offensively, either.  It is averaging just 93.9 points per game on 43.6% shooting.  It ranks 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Like the Thunder, they have made up for it on the defensive end.  They are giving up just 94.7 points per game on 43.0% shooting this year.  They have Larry Sanders protecting the paint for them as he is back and healthy this year, which has made a huge difference for their defense.

 The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  The last three have been very low-scoring as they combined for 186, 171 and 184 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Expect another ugly, low-scoring battle between these two for a fourth straight meetings tonight.

Milwaukee is 8-0 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder's last six road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Bucks last 21 games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -3.5

The Akron Zips are highly motivated to become bowl eligible this season. At 4-5 on the year, they know they probably need to win out to get invited to a bowl game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do. They have lost three in a row coming in, but two of those came without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl.

Pohl returned to action against Bowling Green last week and was rusty, completing just 31 of 62 passes for 304 yards without a touchdown and three interceptions. Look for him to have shaken off the rust and to perform much better this week against a terrible Buffalo defense.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have little to play for right now after four straight losses that have dropped them to 3-6 on the season. They have been outgained badly in three of their last four games, and they lost the other game 27-37 at Eastern Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They were outgained by 255 yards by Ohio last week in a 14-37 road loss last Wednesday.

The difference in this game is going to be the Akron defense vs. the Buffalo defense. Akron has been very good on that side of the ball, giving up just 21.0 points per game, 370.2 yards per game, and 5.0 yards per play. Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing 33.6 points per game, 424.0 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. You also have to consider that the Zips have played the tougher schedule by far, which makes their numbers all the more impressive.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. Both the Zips and the Bulls have squared off against the same four teams this year. The Zips are 2-2 against those four teams, outscoring them by an average of 2.2 points per game. The Bulls are 1-3 against those same four teams, getting outscored by an average of 6.5 points per game. Akron is allowing just 18.8 points per game against those four teams, while Buffalo is yielding 34.3 points per game against them.

Terry Bowden is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 50 or more pass attempts as the coach of Akron. These high-volume passing games usually come in losses, which is why they are usually showing value the next week when they come back from them. The Zips simply beat themselves against Bowling Green by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Falcons for the game.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +7

Despite their 3-5-1 start, the Carolina Panthers have plenty to look forward to the rest of the season.  That's because they play in one of the worst divisions in football, and they are actually just a half-game out of first place (Saints, 4-5).

The Panthers will be in a good frame of mind heading into this game against the Philadelphia Eagles because of it.  Also helping matters is that they have had three extra days of rest as they last played on Thursday against the Saints.

That extra rest has allowed some key players for the Panthers to get healthy.  T Byron Bell, G Amini Silatolu and G Trai Turner all missed the Saints' game with injuries.  Both Bell and Silatolu are probable to return, while Turner is still questionable.  On defense, safety Thomas DeCoud is expected back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Saints' game.  Also, the running back corps finally has a healthy Ryan Williams and Jonathan Stewart working together.

Philadelphia has injury concerns of its own.  They are without starting quarterback Nick Foles for six weeks and defensive Captain DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the season.  Right guard Todd Herremans is also reportedly out for the season and will have surgery to repair a torn biceps.

Mark Sanchez will replace Foles, and while this is a system offense and a lot of quarterbacks would succeed in it, I just don't believe that Sanchez is as good as Foles.  He has thrown 77 touchdowns and 72 picks as a starter in the National Football League dating back to his time with the Jets.  He threw two picks in limited action against the Texans last week and cannot be trusted.

The loss of Ryans may be the biggest of them all as he was the unquestioned leader of the defense and had a team-high 45 tackles before suffering a torn right Achilles tendon on Sunday.  The Eagles rank 20th against the run and will have a hard time stopping the Panthers' ground attack, which will get a boost with the return of a couple starting linemen and a healthy backfield.

Coach Ron Rivera isn't about to give up on the Panthers.  "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," he said. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things."

This line opened at Eagles -5.5 and the betting public has been all over the favorites, betting them up to the current line of -7.  That means we have passed two key numbers of 6 and 7, and that's big when we talk about value in the NFL.  There is clearly some value here in backing the Panthers as touchdown underdogs because of this line move.

Oddsmakers realize that the betting public knows that Carolina has not played well of late, forcing them to set this line so high.  Well, a closer look at the schedule shows why as the Panthers have faced the likes of the Packers, Seahawks and Saints the last three weeks, respectively.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.

Carolina is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards per game or more in the second half of the season.  Te Panthers are 20-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Carolina is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC foes.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

The Arizona Cardinals are currently the most overrated team in the NFL in my opinion due to their 7-1 start. Asking them to lay a touchdown here against a division opponent that is playing good football right now is asking too much. I’ll side with the points and the Rams in a game that will likely go right down to the wire.

The reason I believe the Cardinals are overrated is because when you look at everything outside of their record, the stats show that they are only a mediocre team in this league. In fact, the Cardinals rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 36.0 yards per game. They are only averaging 330.4 yards of offense and giving up 366.4 yards per game on defense.

Teams that get outgained by 36.0 yards per game would usually have a losing record on the season. In fact, all of the teams that rank 24th or worse in yardage differential behind the Cardinals have losing records with the exception of the 24th-place Cleveland Browns, who have also been fortunate to have the record that they do. The Cardinals have only committed six turnovers this year and have a +10 turnover differential on the season. That is simply unsustainable, and they will regress to the mean the rest of the way.

Considering St. Louis has beaten both Seattle and San Francisco in two of its last three games, it is fully capable of going into Arizona and pulling off the upset, let alone covering the 7-point spread. The Rams finally showed what their defense is capable of against the 49ers last week, limiting them to just 263 total yards while sacking Colin Kaepernick eight times. They will get after the much more immobile Carson Palmer in this one.

St. Louis has actually owned Arizona the last two years. It has won three of its last four meetings with the Cardinals, including two by exactly 14 points. It has held Arizona to an average of 14.7 points per game in the three wins, and I look for its defense to shut down this suspect Cardinals’ offense one again in their first meeting of 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 10 games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -8

After failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games coming into this one, I believe there is actually some value in backing the Seattle Seahawks this week as only 8-point home favorites against the New York Giants. They lost to both Dallas and St. Louis before beating Carolina and Oakland by a combined 10 points the last two weeks. The betting public has been killed backing them, so they are actually afraid to support them with their money again, which has kept this line lower than it should be.

However, anyone who watched that game against the Raiders last week knows that Oakland was fortunate to cover. They trailed that game 24-3 at halftime before outscoring the Seahawks 21-6 the rest of the way to get the backdoor cover. The Seahawks simply let their foot off the gas. They still held the Raiders to just 226 total yards while forcing three turnovers, and there’s no way the Raiders should have scored 24 points with those numbers.

It was the third straight dominant performance for the Seattle D, which appears to be returning to its Super Bowl form from a year ago. It held St. Louis to 272 yards, Carolina to 266 yards, and Oakland to 226 yards in its last three games, respectively. It now ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense at 304.9 yards per game. This is still one of the best teams in the NFL despite the shaky start to the season, which has been more attributed to a tough schedule than anything.

New York, on the other hand, has been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last three weeks. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in losses to the Eagles (27-0), Cowboys (31-21) and Colts (24-40), getting outscored a combined 45-98 in the process, or by an average of 17.7 points per game. Its defense has been shredded in four straight games now.

The Giants gave up 397 yards to the Falcons, 448 yards to the Eagles, 423 yards to the Cowboys, and 443 yards to the Colts in their last four games, respectively. They have given up averages of 29.5 points and 427.8 yards per game during this stretch. They cannot stop anybody, which leaves them prone to the blowout, especially this week in a hostile environment in Seattle where the Seahawks have only lost twice over the past two seasons combined.

New York hasn’t been very good offensively since losing star receiver Victory Cruz, either. It is averaging just 15.0 points in its last three games overall. That even includes the 14 points the Giants scored against the Colts last week in garbage time in the fourth quarter. They actually trailed that game 40-10 before the Colts pulled their defensive starters, and the Giants got most of their offensive output for the entire came in the final 10 minutes. They are going to struggle offensively once again this week against a top-notch Seattle defense.

This will be a tough trip from the East Coast to the West Coast for the Giants for a late-afternoon start. Adding to that is the fact that they will be working on a short week after playing Indianapolis on Monday.  The Seahawks dominated the Giants in their 23-0 road win last season. They outgained them 327-181 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Eli Manning went 18 of 31 passing for 156 yards with a whopping five interceptions in the loss.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Seattle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Giants are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New York is 19-43-2 ATS in its last 64 November games. Seattle is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions -2.5

The Detroit Lions have shown me enough thus far in 2014 to make me believe that they are arguably the best team in the NFC. To get to 6-2 without having two of its superstars in Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for an extended period of time is simply remarkable. The Lions are certainly a sleeper to win the Super Bowl and should not be taken lightly the rest of the way.

That’s especially the case considering both Johnson and Bush had an extra week off to get healthy coming into this game. The Lions will be returning from their bye after beating the Falcons over in London, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go. Both Johnson and Bush are listed as probable, and it’s going to be fun to watch what this offense can do with these two finally healthy again.

The reason the Lions have had so much success despite mediocre production on offense is their performance on the other side of the football. The Lions are giving up just 15.7 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total defense at 290.4 yards per game. They will certainly make life miserable on Ryan Tannehill and this Miami offense this week.

While I’ll admit that the Dolphins are a very good team with impressive numbers up to this point, they are simply overvalued this week off their 37-0 win against San Diego last week. Sure, the Dolphins have won three straight games coming in against the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers, but they have been gift-wrapped those wins. They have a combined +9 turnover differential in their last three games, and that is simply unsustainable moving forward.  Miami is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.

The Dolphins have some bad injury news of their own to deal with this week. Knowshon Moreno was already out for the season with a knee injury, but now starting running back Lamar Miller is banged up. Miller left the Week 9 win against the Chargers with a shoulder injury and did not return. He is questionable to play this week, leaving the Dolphins very thin in the backfield.

Miami is going to be forced to be a one-dimensional team this week not only because of the injuries to its running backs, but also because the Lions don’t allow an inch on the ground. They rank 2nd in the league against the run, allowing just 74.0 yards per game and 3.3 per carry. With two weeks to prepare for this new Miami offense, the Lions will be ready to slow down Tannehill and company.

Plays against road teams (MIAMI) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -2.5

It’s amazing to think that the Falcons still feel like they have a shot to win the NFC South, but such is life in this poor division. The Falcons are very much alive for the division title as they trail the New Orleans Saints by just two games for first place. They also currently hold the tiebreaker over the Saints after beating them in Week 1.

This bye week came at a great time for Atlanta, which can clear its mind of what happened in the first half of the season and focus on making a run in the second half. That starts this week with a road game against the Bucs, who are the only team in the division that has been worse than the Falcons. With games against the Panthers and Browns the next two weeks after this, the Falcons have to feel like they can make a run.

Atlanta did play well in its last game against one of the best teams in the NFL over in London. Unfortunately, it blew a 21-0 lead over Detroit and lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 22-21. That Detroit team is now 6-2 and vying for the top spot in the NFC. It was a tough loss, but one that shows what the Falcons are capable of moving forward.

The Bucs would be winless this season if not for a fluke 27-24 win at Pittsburgh back on September 28th. It has lost four in a row coming in, including losses to both the Vikings and Browns the last two weeks. Those two performances followed up a 17-48 home loss to Baltimore on October 12th. This team simply is not that good, and they certainly can’t have a very good outlook going forward right now.

While that 31-point loss to the Ravens was bad, it wasn’t even the biggest loss the Bucs have suffered this season. They were beaten even more handily by Atlanta in the first meeting of the season by a final of 56-14 on the road. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 488-217 for the game in their most impressive effort of the season. Matt Ryan threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while the Falcons rushed for 144 yards as a team in the win.

There’s no denying that both teams are bad defensively, but the edge clearly goes to the Falcons on the other side of the football. They rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 375.6 yards per game, while the Bucs rank 31st in total offense at 303.9 yards per game. Matt Ryan still has two of the best weapons in the NFL in Roddy White and Julio Jones as this offense has gotten back on track with these two healthy in 2014.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) – when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 85-47 (64.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season are 39-10 (79.6%) ATS since 1983. The Bucs are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +10

The Tennessee Titans are showing excellent value this week as they return from their bye as 10-point underdogs to the Ravens. They will be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this one. The Ravens could be in a tough state mentally after their 23-43 loss to division rival Pittsburgh last week. This could be a hangover spot for them, and their confidence has to be shot after that defeat.

Tennessee decided to give the keys to the offense to Zach Mettenberger in its last game against Houston. While it lost that game 16-30, it wasn’t because of poor play from its quarterback this time. Mettenberger turned in the best performance of any Titans’ QB this season, completing 27 of 41 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. Having two weeks to learn the offense and get accustomed to run with the first-team will do wonders for the rookie heading into this one.

This Baltimore offense has really struggled the last two weeks against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. It managed just 294 total yards against the Bengals before posting 332 total yards against the Steelers. Neither of those teams have elite defenses, so those performances were really concerning. I believe the Ravens were a bit of a fraud coming into those games because their five wins this season had come against the likes of the Steelers, Browns, Panthers, Bucs and Falcons.

The Titans are undervalued as we enter the second half of the season. They have played a tough schedule in the first half as four of their six losses have come against teams that currently have winning records and are at least two games over .500 or better. They have also failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them. That’s why oddsmakers have been forced to inflate this line Sunday.

Tennessee has played Baltimore very tough over the years. Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, and the only two that weren’t were blowout wins by the Titans. So, the Titans have not lost by more than 6 points to the Ravens in any of their last eight meetings since 2001. Dating back further, the underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series.

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) – off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (BALTIMORE) – after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or worse) are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Tennessee is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +4

The Jets have been the most disappointing team in the NFL up to this point. They were expected to be much better than 1-8 through their first nine games of the year, and nobody is more disappointed than Rex Ryan. They just have turned the ball over far too often this season while not getting any turnovers themselves. They have committed 18 turnovers while getting just three for a -15 differential.

Teams that have a poor turnover differential in the first half usually turn it around in the second half. Obviously, to only get three turnovers on defense, the Jets have been extremely unlucky this year. Rex Ryan is a great defensive coach, but for whatever reason, the ball is just not bouncing their way on either side of the football. I still believe this is a solid team, and the numbers certainly show that.

New York is actually outgaining opponents by an average of 4.9 yards per game. Teams with this kind of differential can usually be found with around a .500 record, or more likely a winning team than a losing one. Instead, the Jets are 1-8 on the year, and I believe they are undervalued heading into the second half of the season. They have shown no quit yet, and I don’t expect them to just pack it in.

The Jets fought tough against Kansas City last week even in a 10-24 loss. They outgained the Chiefs 364-309 for the game and arguably should have won. They kept moving the ball into Kansas City territory in the second half, but could do nothing with it as they were stopped on downs time and time again. Before that, they played tough against both Denver and New England before giving the game away against Buffalo with six turnovers.

With the worst ATS record (1-7-1) in the NFL, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Jets right now. That’s why this line opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 and was bet up to -5.5 before settling at -4 in most places. That line movement alone shows that there is value in backing the Jets this week. It has passed over a couple of key numbers in 3 and 4. Whenever you get a bargain like this, it’s usually a wise move to take advantage and back the home dog when the public is all over the short road favorite.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is extremely overvalued right now due to its three straight wins and covers coming into this game. All three of those wins came at home, and while the blowout wins over the Colts and Ravens were impressive, the Steelers have no business laying 4 points on the road this week. Pittsburgh is getting outscored 17.5 to 21.2 on the road this season.

The Steelers are in a letdown spot here off a win over their biggest rival in the Ravens, and it's certainly on the mind of Ben Roethlisberger.  "They're a lot better football team than their record looks and their defense is very good," Roethlisberger said of the Jets. "Last week is over. The week before last week is over. We're facing a good defense at their place and so we need to come out and play our best football."  Easier said than done of such a big win.

Plays on underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS since 1983. This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams on extended losing streaks in the second half of the year. The Steelers are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Pittsburgh is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 14 points or more.  Take the Jets Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -8

This is a pretty generous line to be able to back the Ducks with. They have kicked it into high gear of late, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really make a strong push at the four-team playoff.  They have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.

Even after their 45-16 beat down of Stanford last week, they know their work isn’t done. Marcus Mariota did not come back for his junior season just to let his team suffer another letdown for a third straight year. Look for the Ducks to be 100% focused against the Utes as they know some unfinished business remains.

The Ducks once again boast one of the top offenses in the country. Putting up 45 points and 525 total yards on that Stanford defense is no small feat. They were right on par with their season averages as they put up 45.4 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. They should be able to put up another big number this week against a Utah team that is simply overrated right now.

I don’t even believe that the Utes are one of the Top 25 teams in the country even though they're ranked 17th. They have been extremely fortunate to get to 6-2 this season. In fact, the Utes have actually been outgained by their opponents in six straight games, yet they have gone 4-2 during this stretch. They are getting outgained 373.4 to 385.2 on the season and don’t have an offense explosive enough to keep up with the Ducks in this one.

Last week’s 16-19 loss to Arizona State was far from the close game that the final score would indicate. The Sun Devils actually outgained the Utes 444-241 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson went just 12-of-22 passing for 57 yards with a touchdown in the loss. Wilson isn’t going to be able to match Mariota score-for-score in this one.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  They allowed 239 rushing yards to the Sun Devils last week.  The Ducks have rushed for 218-plus yards in four straight games and should have no problem moving the football on the ground in this one.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU -6

The TCU Horned Frogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country this season. They have gone 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in 2014 to make backers like myself a ton of money. While they were overvalued last week at West Virginia, they still nearly covered with a one-point win as a 3-point favorite. They are undervalued this week as only 6-point home favorites over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Trevone Boykin really needs to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. He leads a new & improved TCU offense that is putting up 48.0 points and 550.0 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Boykin is completing 57.0 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with 22 touchdowns against four interceptions, while also rushing for 423 yards and four scores.

While the offense has played very well, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for the job that it has done, either. The Frogs are allowing just 22.6 points and 370.0 yards per game this season despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. Stopping Jake Waters and the Kansas State rushing attack will be key, and the Frogs are equipped to do it. They are only allowing 140 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Kansas State is nowhere near as good as the seventh-best team in the country, which is where it is currently ranked. Sure, it is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12, but it has faced a very easy conference schedule thus far. It still has road games at TCU, WVU and Baylor left on its schedule. Its true colors will show over the next four weeks as I wouldn’t be surprise to see it go 1-3 during this stretch.

Sure, Kansas State went into Oklahoma and won 31-30, but it should never have won that game as Oklahoma’s kicker gift-wrapped it for the Wildcats. They were outgained by the Sooners 385-533 for the game, but they were able to win because Michael Hunnicut missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal with only a few ticks remaining. Look for the Wildcats to get dominated in the box score in this one as well, and to lose big like they should this time around.

TCU played Kansas State very tough on the road last year. It only lost by a final of 31-33 as an 11.5-point underdog. It’s hard to even describe how much improved these 2014 Horned Frogs are over last year’s version. They will be looking for revenge on the Wildcats at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 29.8 points per game.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off a win against a conference rival against opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1992. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* Virginia/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +20.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise teams in the early going with their 4-2 start. They had beaten the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh with their only losses coming to BYU (33-41) and UCLA (20-28) up to that point. They would go on to lose two more close games to Duke (13-20) and North Carolina (27-28) before their worst performance of the season last week against Georgia Tech (10-35).

I believe that performance is why this line is so high, and that showing was an aberration when you look at how close their other four losses were coming in. The Cavaliers had not lost by more than eight points in any game up to that point, and they are still a very solid team. The problem is that they have failed to cover the spread in four straight, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That has provided us with some nice line value in this one.

Meanwhile, Florida State is coming off its big National TV win at Louisville last week, so the betting public is back on the FSU train. The Seminoles have no business being this heavily favored against a quality Virginia squad. They are in a big letdown spot here off that big win over Louisville and with a trip to Miami on deck next week. I don’t expect them to bring their best effort to the field Saturday night, which will have the Cavaliers staying within three touchdowns.

Florida State has been overvalued for most of the season. It is just 2-6 ATS in its eight games this year. It has only beaten two teams by more than 18 points this year. Those were home games against FBS foe The Citadel (37-12) as a 56.5-point favorite and Wake Forest (43-3) as a 37-point favorite. The Seminoles only beat Oklahoma State by 6, Clemson by 6, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 18, Notre Dame by 4 and Louisville by 11. I believe Virginia is better than half of those teams.

This Virginia defense is fully capable of limiting this FSU offense. The Cavaliers are only giving up 24.2 points, 344.7 yards, and 5.0 yards per play against opponents who average 29.3 points, 421 yards, and 5.7 yards per play this season. Florida State is allowing 22.7 points, 388.6 yards, and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 25.3 points, 371 yards, and 5.2 per play. The Seminoles rank just 10th in the ACC in total defense.

“We’re playing for coach (Mike) London, we’re playing for our teammates, we’re playing for the season, we’re playing for a bowl game,” said tight end Zachary Swanson, who played on the ’11 team that beat FSU 14-13 in Tallahassee. “We have three more opportunities to win two and I think it’s a big thing for us to get these wins, and play hard, for whatever our reasons may be.”

The Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Idaho +21

The oddsmakers are asking San Diego State to cover a very big number here against Idaho, and I don't believe the Aztecs are capable of doing so.  That's why I'll side with the road underdog Vandals here catching three touchdowns in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 1-7 Idaho team.  That record is the reason they are showing such good value here.  However, a closer investigation shows that they are a much better football team than that record would indicate.

Five of the Vandals' seven losses have come by 16 points or fewer.  The other two were a 24-point loss to South Alabma and a 23-point loss at Georgia Southern, which is a team that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Idaho comes into this game playing some very good football.  It has actually outgained three of its last four opponents despite going 1-3 during this stretch.  The lone exception was that 23-point road loss to Georgia Southern, which again, isn't a bad loss at all.

When I take big underdogs like this, I like them to be able to put up points because that always gives them a chance to score and get a backdoor cover if need be.  While I don't think that will be needed in this one, I do like what I've seen from this Idaho offense.

Indeed, the Vandals are scoring 26.1 points per game and averaging 426.0 yards per game.  Matt Linehan is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards on the season, and Jerrel Brown has rushed for 451 yards while averaging 5.2 per carry.  Elijhaa Penny has added 368 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

San Diego State is just 4-4 on the season.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Northern Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.  It has only won one game by more than 17 points this season, and that was against FCS foe NAU.  It only beat Hawaii by 10, New Mexico by 10, and UNLV by 17, which are three awful teams that I believe Idaho could beat.

The Aztecs simply lack the offense to cover such a big number like this one.  They are only scoring 22.1 points per game and averaging 388.7 yards per game.  That's really bad when you consider that their eight opponents faced thus far average giving up 33.1 points per game and 451 yards per game on defense.

Plays on road underdogs (IDAHO) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning are 69-34 (67%) ATS since 1992.  The Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Off a big loss at Nevada last week, and with Boise State on deck, this is certainly a letdown spot for SDSU as well.  I don't expect them to have the kind of focus or the offensive firepower it will take to win this game by more than three touchdowns against a sneaky Vandals squad.  Roll with Idaho Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -14

This line has been bet up from -10 to -14 already and I still don't believe it's enough.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are an under-the-radar team from the Sun Belt that the oddsmakers just haven't been able to keep up with.

The Eagles are 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) by a combined five points.  Six of their seven wins have come by 20 points or more, so this team has been blowing out the opposition on the regular.

Georgia Southern boasts a potent offense that is putting up 44.4 points, 519.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  It is giving up just 20.9 points, 379.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.5 points per game and outgaining foes by 139.9 yards per game.

Texas State is a quality team, but it isn't capable of keeping up with the Eagles in this one.  That's because its defense is giving 27.7 points, 460.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  That is really bad when you consider its opponents are only averaging 384 yards per game on the season, so it is allowing roughly 77 yards per game more than its opposing offenses have averaged on the season.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Bobcats.  They are allowing 218 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  There's no way they are going to be able to slow down a Georgia Southern rushing attack that is averaging 407 yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry on the year.  The Eagles are going to score and score some more because there's nothing the Bobcats are going to be able to do to stop them.

Plays on road favorites (GA SOUTHERN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Texas State is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +7

I believe the Wyoming Cowboys are undervalued as 7-point home underdogs coming into this one. At 4-5 on the season, they desperately need to win this game if they want a chance to become bowl eligible because they still have Boise State remaining on the schedule. I’ve been very impressed with the job that Craig Bohl has done in his first season here, making the Cowboys far more competitive than they were expected to be.

Sure, Wyoming lost four straight games prior to beating Fresno State 45-17 last week, but it was competitive in every game aside from a 14-56 loss at Michigan State that started the skid. It only lost by 10 at Hawaii, by 7 to San Jose State in overtime, and by 14 at Colorado State as a 19.5-point underdogs. That tough stretch of games had the Cowboys battle-tested heading into last week’s game against Fresno State, and boy did they put on a show.

The Cowboys are coming off their best performance of the season against the Bulldogs last week. They won by a whopping 28 points on the road despite being 16-point underdogs in that contest. They outgained the Bulldogs 694-316 for the game as this was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. Colby Kirkegaard threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Hill rushed for 281 yards and two scores on 23 carries in the win.

Utah State is coming off a 35-14 blowout win of its own at Hawaii last week, but it is overvalued here as a result. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Aggies only outgained the Warriors 465-454 for the game. The Aggies benefited from a defensive touchdown and finished +3 in turnover differential in the win.

While I admit that Kent Myers looked very good in his first start for the Aggies against the Warriors, he wasn’t asked to do much as he threw for just 186 yards on 15 attempts in the win. Meyers is a freshman who was supposed to redshirt, but since there have been injuries to the top three quarterbacks on the roster, he has been forced into action. The Aggies certainly should not be a touchdown road favorite here with a fourth-string quarterback under center.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to San Jose State by a final of 20-27 in overtime. The crowd will be rowdy for this one as this is a rare opportunity for the Cowboys to showcase themselves on National TV. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2 Friday night, which will just add more fuel to the fire for the Cowboys. They come in with a ton of confidence off that win against Fresno State last week.

The Cowboys are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Nets UNDER 192

I'm going to side with the UNDER in this game between Atlantic Division rivals Brooklyn and New York Friday night.  I look for defense to shine through in this one as the final combined score of this game stays well below the 192-point total.

New York has played in a bunch of low-scoring games thus far.  It has combined with its opponents for 189 points or fewer in four of its five games this year.  The only exception was the 193-point output against Detroit last time out, but the two teams needed 59 points in the fourth quarter to get to that number.

I predicted that the Knicks would struggle to learn the Triangle Offense early in the season, and that has certainly been the case.  They are only averaging 89.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting.  Players are out of position consistently and still learning how to play with one another within the Triangle.

You can really tell that they are struggling to find good shots offensively because they are eating up the shotclock almost every possession.  In fact, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging just 89.7 possessions per game.  To compare, the No. 1 team in pace is Golden State, which is averaging 103.0 possessions per game.  When a team's possessions are limited, the UNDER is usually a good bet.

Brooklyn has actually played very well on the offensive end this season.  It is shooting 48.3% from the field thus far, but that's going to be tough to keep up moving forward.  Plus, they have played a pretty easy schedule with the likes of the Celtics, Pistons, Thunder and Timberwolves thus far.  Brooklyn ranks right in the middle of the pack in pace (14th), averaging 96.1 possessions per game.

New York is 32-14 to the UNDER in its last 46 games off a game where its opponent grabbed 65 or more rebounds.  Lionel Hollins is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games versus foul-prone teams that are called for 24 or more fouls per game in all games he has coached.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Nets last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

15* Memphis/Temple AAC Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -7.5

The Temple Owls are in a massive letdown spot here against the Memphis Tigers. They are coming off their biggest win of the season against a ranked opponent in East Carolina. They won that game 20-10, but when you look at the box score, it’s easy to see that it was a complete fluke. The Owls were outgained by the Pirates 135-432 for the game, or by 297 total yards. The difference was that ECU committed five turnovers while the Owls didn’t commit a single one.

That was the third straight lousy performance for the Owls offensively. They only managed 10 points and 357 total yards in a 10-31 loss to Houston on October 17th. They came back and scored just 14 points behind 182 total yards in a 14-34 loss at UCF on October 25th. So, in their last three games combined, Temple has averaged just 16.0 points and 224.7 yards per game.

That’s not going to cut it this week against a Memphis team that is vastly improved over a year ago. Its only three losses this season have come to the likes of UCLA (35-42), Ole Miss (3-24) and Houston (24-28). That’s how close this is to being a 7-1 team right now. The Tigers even trailed the Rebels 7-3 on the road entering the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final period.

Despite playing this tough schedule, the Tigers have put up the kind of numbers that show they are a real contender to win the American Athletic this year after their 3-1 start in conference play. They are scoring 36.2 points and averaging 448.0 yards per game on offense, while giving up just 19.4 points and 350.6 yards per game on defense. In conference play alone, the Tigers are ouscoring teams 38.2 to 18.0 and outgaining them 496.5 to 342.0.

Temple is 3-2 in conference play, but it’s a complete fluke. The Owls are outscoring teams 23.0 to 21.8 within the conference, but they are getting outgained 288.6 to 416.4 in AAC play. So, Memphis is outgaining conference opponents by an average of 154.5 yards per game, while Temple is getting outgained in AAC play by an average of 127.8 yards per game. Without question, the Tigers are the better team despite their identical 5-3 records, and that will show on the football field Friday night.

Memphis is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 November road games. Temple is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 75 or less passing yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Memphis Friday.

20* Browns/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -6

While the Browns are certainly improved this season, they have benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the league.  This 5-3 team is clearly a fraud, and they will be exploited Thursday night against a much superior Bengals squad.  The Browns have played five home games compared to three road games. 

While the Browns have gone 4-1 at home, they are just 1-2 on the road with their only win coming at Tennessee 29-28 as they had to erase a 25-point deficit to get that win.  They also lost at Pittsburgh 27-30 after trailing in that game by 24 points.  Perhaps the game that most exemplifies the kind of team that Browns are is their 6-24 road loss to Jacksonville, which has proven to be the only win of the season thus far for the Jaguars.

Cincinnati simply does not lose at home.  It is now 12-0-1 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in all regular season home games over the last two seasons.  The Bengals have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the league.  They are outscoring teams 30.8 to 20.6 at home this season, or by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Their offense is averaging 411.6 yards per game at home this year, and now Andy Dalton has the luxury of a healthy A.J. Green back in the lineup.

Cleveland has not been able to run the football since losing center Alex Mack to a season-ending injury.  Despite playing the Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs the last three weeks, the Browns have only been able to rush for an average of 52.7 yards per game.  It's not like they are abandoning the run, either.  They have gained 158 yards on a whopping 83 carries in their last three games, an average of a mere 1.9 yards per rush.  They are one-dimensional and easy to defend now.

One fact that shows the Browns are not as good as their 5-3 record would indicate is that they rank 24th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 39.5 yards per game.  They are averaging 352.3 yards of offense while giving up 391.8 yards per game on defense.  That's really bad when you consider how easy their schedule has been.

It's also worth noting that the Browns could be without two of their biggest weapons on offense this week.  Tight end Jordan Cameron is doubtful to play with a concussion, while leading receiver Andrew Hawkins (39 receptions, 504 yards, 1 TD) is questionable with a knee injury.  For an offense already short on weapons because Josh Gordon (suspension) remains out, this is very bad news.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Cleveland and Cincinnati as well.  Indeed, the home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings.  Cincinnati beat Cleveland 41-20 at home last year, and a similar beat down can be expected in this one given how poorly the Browns have played on the road this year, and how well the Bengals have played at home.

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS after having won three out of their last four games over the past three years.  Cincinnati is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall.  The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

While the Huskies are not as dominant as they have been over the past several years, they are still one of the best teams in the MAC at 6-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They have taken care of business against all other comers, and have actually played their best football on the road.  They beat the likes of Northwestern, UNLV and Eastern Michigan for a 3-1 record in road games this year.

Despite the losses of two of the best quarterbacks the MAC has ever seen in recent years in Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, the Huskies are still performing at a high level offensively.  They are scoring 31.6 points and averaging 464.9 yards per game.  Drew Hare is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,226 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 581 yards and five scores on 7.6/carry.  He's the next great dual-threat QB for this program.

Ball State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers in this one as only a 3-point underdog.  That's because it has won its last two games against Central Michigan and Akron.  Well, Central Michigan gave that game away as it outgained the Cardinals by 139 total yards but committed five turnovers in a 29-32 loss.  Akron was playing without starting QB Kyle Pohl in its 21-35 loss to the Cardinals and blew a 21-13 halftime lead thanks to committing five turnovers as well.  So, Ball State has benefited from 10 turnovers by the opposition in its two wins, and that is unsustainable.

The reason the Cardinals stand little chance of keeping this game competitive is because of their offense.  They are only averaging 364 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that are allowing 406 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Defensively, they are giving up 404 yards per game and 5.9 per play against teams that average 374 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  Simply put, the Cardinals are not a very good team this year when you look at the numbers.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Ball State, which includes two blowout victories on the road by finals of 35-23 and 59-21.  The Huskies have put up 569 yards, 509 yards, and 710 yards on the Cardinals in their last three meetings, respectively. 

The Huskies are averaging 269 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season, which is bad news for the Cardinals, who are giving up 188 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry. 

The Huskies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home record of .500 or worse.  Northern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games overall.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 188.5

This is a rematch from the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year.  These Pacers and Wizards know each other inside and out after playing in the playoffs last year, and based on those six games, I can tell that this number has been set too high tonight.

Oddsmakers set every total between Washington and Indiana at 187 points or fewer in the playoffs last year.  Four of the six games went UNDER the total, and each of the last five games in the series saw 187 or fewer combined points.  From Game 6-back, they combined for 173, 181, 187, 148, 168 and 198 points.

The Pacers clearly aren't the same team as they were last year due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without three starters in Paul George, George Hill and David West, and their offense has struggled as a result.

Indiana has has to play a slow-it-down style this year to try to avoid getting blown out.  It ranks just 27th in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is scoring just 91.2 points per game on 42.7% shooting.  Its lack of offensive firepower with all of these injuries is alarming.

Both Washington and Indiana have been strong defensively this season.  Indiana is allowing just 94.2 points per game on the season as it is nearly as strong defensively as it was a year ago even with these losses.  Washington is yielding 96.2 points per contest on the year.

Dating back further, eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.  Indiana is 34-18 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 36-19 to the UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last three years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.