15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.  San Antonio beat Houston 110-98 at home on Wednesday for 208 combined points.  So, they're now playing two days later, and their familiarity with one another will lead to more of a defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Plus, both these teams are fighting for the Southwest Division Title.  Houston is 53-25 while San Antonio is 53-26, just a half-game back.  Both have a realistic shot of getting the No. 2 seed in the West, but both could also slip to No. 5 if they don't finish strong.  That means both teams should be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.

Previous meetings in Houston have been extremely low-scoring in comparison to this total.  They have combined for 179, 202, 187 and 191 points in their last four meetings in Houston as the UNDER has gone 4-0.  That's an average combined score of 189.8 points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.5.

San Antonio is 12-2 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Houston is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last two seasons.  Houston is 13-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 191

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season due to their ability to get after it on the defensive end of the court.  In fact, they rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.9 points per 100 possessions.

Now, they'll be up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA in the New York Knicks.  The Knicks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions.  New York also plays at a very slow tempo, ranking 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game.

The last two meetings between these teams in 2015 have been very low-scoring.  They Bucks won 95-82 for 177 combined points and 95-79 for 174 combined points, which are both numbers that are well below tonight's posted total of 191, showing just how much value there is with this UNDER.

New York is 8-1 UNDER when revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games following a loss. The UNDER is 21-10 in Bucks last 31 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record.  They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon.

The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.  They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10.  They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time.

Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers.  They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight.  I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all.

Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Nets UNDER 200.5

Both the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for right now.  Washington is one game back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  Brooklyn is one game ahead of Indiana for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, just fighting to make the playoffs.

Because these two teams have a lot to play for right now, I look for both to be laying it all on the line defensively.  Washington has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What I really love about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings in 2015 alone where they've combined for 182, 189 and 191 points.  That's an average of 187.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.5.  Plus, the familiarity between these teams having played 4 times in 2015 alone will favor the defenses.

Washington is 170-107 UNDER in road games when the total is 190 to 199.5 points since 1996.  Brooklyn is 15-5 UNDER after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Wizards last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 35-12-2 in Wizards last 49 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for.  They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way.  That has been evident in their last couple games.

Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months.  It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents.  It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round.  They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

"We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two."  That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs.

"We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard.  That sounds like a guy determined to get home court.  The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two.

Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Blue Jays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Toronto -104

C.C. Sabathia is far past his prime at 34 years old.  He made just eight starts last year but didn't pitch after May 10 due to a season-ending knee injury.  However, he was coming off the worst year of his career in 2013, where he went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA.

Sabathia, who started Opening Day from 2006-2014, gave way to Masahiro Tanaka this season.  If the spring was any indication, Sabathia is going to struggle again in 2015.  Over 10 innings in the big leagues this spring, he allowed nine runs on 14 hits, three of which were home runs.

The Blue Jays have to be excited about Daniel Norris, who is one of the top pitching prospects in the game.  He had the best K/9 ratio (11.8) in the minors last season behind a dancing fastball that tops out at 96-97 mph.  He struck out 29 batters over 24 2/3 innings in the spring as well.

Toronto is 4-1 in its last five games as a favorite.  New York is 5-11 in Sabathia's last 16 starts as an underdog.  The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 during Game 3 of a series.  Toronto is 13-5 in its last 18 games with Jerry Meals behind home plate.  Roll with the Blue Jays Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -122

San Diego fans will be excited about the Padres' home opener tonight against the defending world champion San Francisco Giants.  I look for the team to respond, especially after losing two out of three to the Dodgers to open the series.

Ian Kennedy is looking to build on a strong 2014 season that saw him record a career-high 207 strikeouts over 201 innings.  Kennedy is 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA in 20 career starts against the Giants, so he certainly loves facing this team.

The 39-year-old Tim Hudson gets the ball for the Giants after struggling at the end of last season.  He finished 9-13 with a 3.57 ERA last year, but was much better in the first half than the second.  He simply doesn't have much left in the tank.

The Padres are 8-3 in home openers since 2004.  San Diego is 24-7 in its last 31 home games overall.  The Padres are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts overall.  San Diego is 9-4 in its last 13 home meetings with San Francisco.  Take the Padres Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17

This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover.  They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season.  They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed.

Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday.  While both are expected to return, they are still banged up.  Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season.

Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night.  That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go.  They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.

Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings.  The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Knicks UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks tonight.  These teams have played in low-scoring games in all three meetings this season, and I look for that to continue tonight.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  New York ranks 29th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 24th.  Both teams prefer to play at slow paces too.  New York ranks 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 19th at 95.7 possessions per contest.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams as they've combined for 178, 187, 185 and 178 points, respectively.  That's an average of 182.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5.

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER in road games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Rays OVER 7

This 7-run total in Game 3 of this series between the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays makes no sense to me.  The first two games of this series also had 7-run totals, but both teams had better starters on the mound than they do tonight, yet both games went OVER the total in 6-2 and 6-5 Orioles' victories.

Miguel Gonzalez is a solid starter after going 10-9 with a 3.23 ERA last year for the Orioles, but he is not as good as Chris Tillman or Wei-Yin Chen.  Jake Odorizzi, who went 11-13 with a 4.13 ERA last year for the Rays, certainly isn't as good as Tampa's first two starters in Chris Archer and Nate Karns.

What really stands out to me is how poor these starters have been against their opposition.  Gonzalez is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay.  He has allowed seven earned runs, 22 base runners and 4 homers over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays.  Odorizzi is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He allowed 8 earned runs runs, 12 base runners and 4 homers in 4 innings in his last start against the Orioles.

Baltimore is 13-3 OVER in April road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 games following a win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last 7 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8

The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams.  I look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit.  They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage.

Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season.  It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs.  The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series.

Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well.  The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -109

After getting shut out in the opener 3-0, the Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated to get a win in Game 2 of this series to avoid falling to 0-2 on the season.  Jon Lester didn't have his best stuff, and the Cubs went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position.  That's not going to happen again.

Now the Cubs will be giving the ball to one of the most underrated starters in the game.  Jake Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts last year for Chicago.  Lance Lynn is a quality starter coming off a big year as well, but he is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here with this short line.

Arrieta is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis, allowing just three earned runs over 29 1/3 innings of work.  Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday, two of the best hitters for the Cardinals, are 0-for-23 with eight strikeouts all-time versus Arrieta.

St. Louis is 5-17 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals are 14-29 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.  Arrieta is 16-7 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Chicago is 10-3 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 in Lynn's last 7 starts as a road underdog.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Arrrieta's last 4 home starts.  Roll with Chicago Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go.  After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason.

Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point.  That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now.

The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta.  I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season.  New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight.

Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder.  I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more.

The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be.  I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here.

Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year.  The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio.  Take the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1

The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky.  Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.

I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.  Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.

While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison.  Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four.  This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes.  Bet Wisconsin Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

I expect a big bounce-back season out of the Reds this year after winning 77 games last year.  They had won 90-plus games in three of the previous four seasons before suffering an MLB-high 38 one-run losses last season.  They were better than their record would indicate.

Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were both hurt last year, and Jay Bruce had an unusual down year, likely due to not having much protection with those two out.  Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton should build off of big years last season.  They added in Marlon Byrd, who hit 25 homers last year and will help make this one of the best lineups in baseball.

The biggest reason I'm on the Reds in the opener is due to their edge on the mound.  Ace Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He's coming off another big year where he went 20-9 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 34 starts, including 13-4 with a 1.171 WHIP and 0.828 WHIP in 18 home starts.

Cueto has simply owned the Pirates, going 18-5 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  He went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six starts against Pittsburgh in 2014, giving up just nine earned runs in 46 innings of work, which included two complete games.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +116

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year with all they lost in the offseason.  They lost manager Joe Maddon, second-baseman Ben Zobrist and outfielder Wil Myers.  They also lost David Price before the trade deadline last year.

The Baltimore Orioles continue to be one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They won the AL East last year and went 99-66.  They should not be an underdog to the Rays in the opener as they are once again lacking the respect they deserve.

Chris Tillman gets the start for Baltimore after going 14-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 36 starts last season.  Tillman went 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay last season, allowing just four earned runs over 21 innings.

Because Price is gone, Tampa Bay now sends Chris Archer to the mound on opening day.  He's a solid starter but no ace.  Archer is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He went 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Orioles last year, allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings.

Tillman is 26-11 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 17-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 25-7 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Orioles Monday.

20* Cardinals/Cubs 2015 MLB Season Opener on Chicago -108

This is going to be a raucous crowd tonight at Wrigley Field in anticipation for the Chicago Cubs' season opener.  When watching this game, you'll see a new videoboard beyond the left-field wall, which signifies a new day and a new era at Wrigley.

The Cubs had a huge offseason in adding ace Jon Lester and manager Joe Maddon to go along with one of the top young lineups in baseball.  Lester will get his chance to show that he was worth his big contract as the Opening Day starter tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Lester has been a member of the American League his entire career, and the change to the National League will only further his success.  Lester went 16-11 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP with 225 strikeouts in 227 innings last year, including 8-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 17 home starts.

Adam Wainwright is a solid starter in his own right, but he's nearing the decline of his career.  Wainwright is 11-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 27 career starts against Chicago.  Lester is 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis, two of which came in the World Series two years ago in which he allowed one earned run over 15 1/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190

Both the Miami Heat (34-42) and Indiana Pacers (33-43) are on the outside looking in right now when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Heat are in 9th place just 1.5 games back of Boston, while the Pacers are in a tied for 10th just 1.5 games behind Boston.

It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a win.  What that means is that the defensive intensity will be at an all-time high this season for both teams, which I believe will lead to a defensive battle and low-scoring affair.

Two of three meetings between these teams this season have been extremely low-scoring.  They combined for 156 points in their first meeting back on November 12th, and 176 points in their most recent clash on January 23rd.  Yes, they did have a 201-point outing in between, but they are still only averaging 177.7 combined points per game this season.  That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.

Miami is 12-1 UNDER when playing against a losing team with a winning percentage of 40% of 49% this season.  Indiana is 11-3 UNDER in home games where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Heat last 16 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in Heat last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point?  They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences.  The answer is that they have nothing to play for.  Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. 

It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late.  They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit.  If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is.

The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston.  The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games.  That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round.

I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5

Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.

Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.

While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.

There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable.  However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played.  The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32.  I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.

I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played.  It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7.  I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.

Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament.  The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197

The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  They will be locked in defensively tonight as they take on the Detroit Pistons, who are missing their best player in Greg Monroe.

The Bulls certainly don't play with much urgency on offense, and neither do the Pistons.  In fact, the Bulls rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 95.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons are just ahead of them at 22nd, averaging 95.4 possessions per game.  These numbers show that this game is likely to be played in the half court at a slow pace.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points, and seven of those have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

Detroit is 11-2 to the UNDER in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Pistons last 13 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have saved their best basketball for last, which is fitting considering they have been fighting for their lives to make the playoffs.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and currently sit in the No. 7 spot in the East, but only a half-game ahead of both No. 8 Boston and No. 9 Miami.  They still have a lot of work to do.

Brook Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn.  Deron Williams had his best game with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards in a win over the Knicks last time out.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued due to winning three straight coming in, but those three wins have come against the Lakers, Rockets and Timberwolves.  They remain without their best player in Kyle Lowry (back), and I don't believe they stand much of a change against the surging Nets without him.  The Raptors are 8-13 in their last 21 games overall.

Toronto is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Raptors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

20* Stanford/Miami NIT Championship No-Brainer on Miami +2

The ACC showed very well for itself in the NCAA Tournament.  It is doing so in the NIT as well thanks to Miami, which just keeps finding ways to win as its mental makeup couldn't be much stronger with the path it has taken to get here.

The Hurricanes came back from a big deficit against Richmond to win 63-61 on the road, and then topped Temple 60-57 in the semifinals after trailing for most of the way.  They have now won seven of their last eight games overall heading into the Championship Game.

Stanford has had the easier path since it played its first three games at home before beating Old Dominion 67-60 in the semifinals. What I love about this matchup is that the Hurricanes should continue to have a huge rebounding advantage.  They have outrebounded each of their last eight opponents coming in.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in road games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers this year.  The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks are still looking to clinch a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Until they do, they will be laying it all on the line with the hopes of getting some rest in the final few games of the season.

The Mavericks are coming off a huge 135-131 win at Oklahoma City last night.  While they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, they had two days off prior to that game against the Thunder, so it should not affect them too much.

Houston will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after its 115-111 home win over Sacramento yesterday.  However, it will be a tired team considering this will also be its 4th game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the season.

Dallas is 43-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Clippers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3

The Portland Trail Blazers (48-25) are playing very well right now.  They currently sit in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and have a chance of moving up to the No. 2 seed.  That motivation has led to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in their last four games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers (49-26) are in a similar position, and they are playing well right now too.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and both were at home against Washington and New Orleans.

This is a very tough spot for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game last night before giving away to the Warriors in a 106-110 home loss.  Now, they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I believe this is a hangover spot for them after losing to the best team in the NBA as well.

Portland is 30-7 SU at home this season.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Blazers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 192.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks.  Both teams have a lot to play for right now, which I believe will lead to max effort defensively from these already solid defensive teams.

Milwaukee is tied for 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.  But the Bucks are not very good on the other end, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 100.4 points per 100 possessions.  Neither team really pushed the pace.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace while the Bucks are 14th.

What really stood out to me about this game is the recent history between these teams.  The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 192.5.

They have combined for 158, 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 173.9 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-32) are just 2.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They will obviously be playing with a lot of urgency as a result.

The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) have not been playing with a sense of urgency at all.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 7 seed as they are three games behind San Antonio and three ahead of Oklahoma City.  That's not a bad spot to be in considering Memphis is the No. 2 seed right now.

The Thunder have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to San Antonio and Utah.  They have really taken care of business at home here of late, going 6-0 in their last six home games with five of those victories coming by 8 points or more.

The Mavs are 1-4 in their last five games.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.  This team just has been way out of sync and cannot be trusted only catching two points here tonight.  Dallas is 0-10 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83-plus shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Golden State Warriors (60-13) already clinched the Pacific Division title, and they locked up the top seed in the West while setting a franchise record for victories in Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee.  If this isn't a letdown spot for them, than I don't know what is.

Now they have to face a Los Angeles Clippers (49-25) team that has been on a roll since Blake Griffin returned from a 15-game absence.  They have gone 7-0 in thier last seven games overall with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points per game.  They are now within one game of third-place Memphis.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  The Clippers are 4-0 in their last four and 11-3 in their last 14 home meetings with Golden State as well.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls (26-10) have been playing like an NCAA Tournament team ever since they got healthy midseason.  Jesse Morgan (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) missed 10 games early on, but when he returned, the Owls have really been hitting all cylinders since.

Temple has gone 14-3 in its last 17 games overall.  All three of its losses came on the road to SMU (twice) and Tulsa, which are arguably the two best teams in the AAC.  I've really been impressed with the ease in which the Owls have reached the semifinals of the NIT.

After a 73-67 win over a pesky Bucknell team, the Owls have rolled George Washington (90-77) and Louisiana Tech (77-59) to get here.  Morgan came up huge in both wins, scoring 20 points in only 23 minutes against George Washington and 17 points in 24 minutes against Louisiana Tech.

Miami (24-12) is a team that has simply won a ton of close games all season and is not as good as its record would indicate.  It has won 10 games by 5 points or less, and all three of its wins in the NIT have come by 7 points or fewer.  It beat NC Central (75-71) at home, Alabama (73-66) at home, and Richmond (63-61) on the road.

Temple is 10-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Owls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

20* Suns/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +8.5

The Phoenix Suns (38-36) suffered a big loss last night to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They now trail the Thunder by four games in the Western Conference playoff race for the No. 8 seed.  It's safe to say that they will be needing to almost win out to make the playoffs now.

That also means that the Suns won't be lacking any motivation the rest of the way.  That's especially the case tonight as the Suns will be looking for revenge from an 81-87 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers just three days ago on Friday, March 27th.

The Blazers come into this game overvalued due to having won three straight.  Well, all three wins came by 6 points or less, and they came against Utah, Phoenix and Denver.  This team had lost five straight prior to this brief winning streak, so they aren't playing all that well right now and should not be 8.5-point favorites here.

The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last four trips to Portland.  Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Phoenix is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 48-25 ATS in their last 73 road games.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Memphis Grizzlies +8

The value on the Memphis Grizzlies could not be any better than it is right now, while there is no value in backing the San Antonio Spurs right now.  As a result, I believe this line has been inflated, and I have no other choice but to side with the road underdog Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Cleveland (89-111) and Golden State (84-107).  The betting public now wants nothing to do with the Grizzlies.  The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The betting public wants everything to do with them right now because of it.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, four of the last 10 meetings have actually gone to overtime as this has been a very closely-contested rivalry.  I look for more of the same tonight when these two square off in San Antonio.

Memphis is 81-54 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 52-32 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots over the last three years.  The Spurs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents.  The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Memphis Sunday.

20* Gonzaga/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Gonzaga +3

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is easily the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They are 35-2 on the season with one of their losses coming in overtime on the road at Arizona, which is a very tough place to play.

The Bulldogs have been rolling through the NCAA Tournament thus far with three straight double-digit victories over NDSU (86-76), Iowa (87-68) and UCLA (74-62).  Some of their best players even had an off night as they shot 40.3% from the floor against the Bruins, but they still won by 12 points.

I believe Gonzaga is a better team than Duke and it should not be the underdog.  The Blue Devils have also had a pair of blowout wins over Robert Morris (85-56) and San Diego State (68-49), but they had to hold on late to beat Utah (63-57) last time out.  I just believe that the Bulldogs have more balance than the Blue Devils do.  The Bulldogs have the size inside to disrupt Jahlil Okafor just as Utah did.

Gonzaga ia 11-1 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Gonzaga Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season.  That has clearly carried over into the big dance as well as they've won three straight games, including an impressive 81-70 victory over Wichita State last round, to reach the Elite 8.

The Fighting Irish have now won eight straight coming into this game, which includes wins against ranked teams in then-No. 16 Louisville (71-59), then-No. 2 Duke (74-64) and then-No. 19 North Carolina (90-82).  So, they have obviously beaten some very good teams during this streak.

Notre Dame players are clearly playing for head coach Mike Brey right now.  He revealed to his players only after a 67-64 (OT) win over Butler in the Round of 32 that he lost his mother earlier that day.  The players responded in a big way with that 11-point win over Wichita State, and I look for them to use that as extra motivation for them against Kentucky in the Elite 8.

I believe Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 78-39 beat down of West Virginia in the Sweet 16.  Looking back, that was a terrible matchup for the Mountaineers.  To hang with Kentucky you have to be a good 3-point shooting team, and the Mountaineers are one of the worst in the tournament.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team that can hit the 3-pointer with the best of them.  It is shooting 52% overall in the tournament and 38% from 3-point range.  It scores 78.3 points per game on the season on 51.1% shooting overall and 39.2% from beyond the arc.  The Fighting Irish have what it takes to go basket for basket with the Wildcats.  They spread you out with four 3-point shooters on the court at all times, which will nullify Kentucky's height advantage inside defensively.

The Fighting Irish are 11-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls host the New York Knicks tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  The Knicks have been one of the top-two worst offensive team in the league this season, and the Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose.

New York averages just 91.9 points per game on the season, including a woeful 84.8 points in its last five games overall.  It is extremely depleted right now, playing with guys that wouldn't make the roster on most teams.

New York ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  It also plays at a deliberate pace, ranking 28th at 93.5 possessions per game.  Chicago likes to play a half-court game as well.  It ranks 23rd in pace at 95.3 possessions per contest.

The Knicks are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  It is combining with its opponents for 176.5 points per game in this spot, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.  Chicago is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats have waited an entire year for the opportunity at revenge against Wisconsin.  They lost in the Elite 8 to the Badgers last year by a final of 63-64 (OT), and that has left a sour taste in their mouth all offseason and throughout the year.  I believe that extra motivation will push them over the top as they get revenge in the Elite 8 exactly one year later.

Plus, I believe the Wildcats are the better team as well.  They are 34-3 on the season with their three losses coming by a combined 9 points.  That's how close they are to being 37-0 right alongside Kentucky.  They have won 14 in a row coming into this one with all 14 wins coming by 6 points or more, and 11 of those 14 coming by double-digits.

Wisconsin has been very vulnerable up to this point in the tournament.  It only beat Coastal Carolina by 14 as 20.5-point favorites while giving up 48.3% shooting.  It only beat Oregon by 7 as 12.5-point favorites while allowing Joseph Young to score 30 points.  It then was fortunate to beat UNC by 7 last time out as this was a 1-point game in the final minute.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or less turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Arizona is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on Dallas Mavericks +9.5

This number has been inflated for a couple of reasons.  The first is that the Spurs are playing well right now, having gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so they are clearly overvalued due to this run of solid play.  That includes a 39-point win over Oklahoma City last time out, but the Thunder were playing the second of a back-to-back and shorthanded.

The second is that they'll be out for revenge from a 94-101 loss at Dallas on Tuesday.  The Spurs played the next night against the Thunder in their 39-point win, so they will have only had one day off in between games.  The Mavericks haven't played since that 7-point win over the Spurs, so they have had two days off and will be well-rested and ready to go.

Dallas has simply had San Antonio's number in recent meetings as this has proven to be an excellent matchup for the Mavericks.  They are 5-5 SU & a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs dating back to their playoff series this past postseason, which sent the full seven games.

The Mavericks are 22-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last three seasons .  Dallas is 319-251 ATS as an underdog since 1996.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4

The Golden State Warriors (58-13) beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday to capture their first Pacific Division title since 1975-76.  After that huge milestone, I look for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas tonight and to suffer a bit of a letdown.

After all, the Warriors lead second-place Memphis (50-22) by 8.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the West.  They also lead Atlanta by four games for home-court advantage throughout.  They really don't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have a lot to play for right now.  They only lead Houston by 1.5 games for the No. 2 seed.  They want that No. 2 spot so they can have home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs, so motivation is not an issue for them.

The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Grizzlies are 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State +3

You would have to say that NC State (22-13, 10-8 ACC) has been the surprise of the tournament up to this point. It was very fortunate to survive in a 66-65 win over LSU in the Round of 64. The Tigers missed each of their last six free throw attempts to allow the Wolfpack to escape with a 16-point come-from-behind victory. It was a different story against No. 1 Villanova in the Round of 32.

The Wolfpack controlled the game most of the way against the Wildcats and eventually held on for a 71-68 victory. Four different NC State played scored in double figures, led by Trevor Lacey’s 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Cat Barber added 13 points, while Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds) controlled the paint all game.

NC State has really been playing well for quite some time now.  It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 74-65 win at then-No. 9 Louisville on February 14th as 10.5-point underdogs as the Cardinals shot just 32.8%, so this will be a rematch.  It also won at then-No. 15 North Carolina 58-46 on February 24th.  It has beaten Duke within the conference as well.  Throw in that win over Villanova, and the Wolfpack are proving they can play with anyone.

Louisville has had a relatively easy path to get here.  It barely survived in a 57-55 victory over UC-Irvine in the opener.  It then played a Northern Iowa team that was probably overvalued due to its record in the last round, winning that game 66-53.  UNI didn't have the guards that could deal with Louisville's press, but this is a much tougher matchup for the Cardinals because the Wolfpack do have the guards to deal with it.  They also have Abu and Freeman inside who can counter Montrezl Harrell.

The Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 9-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  Thee Cardinals are 3-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this year.  Bet NC State Friday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -10.5

The Arizona Wildcats are proving in the NCAA Tournament that they were deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the big dance, and I look for them to continue their dominance in the Sweet 16 against Xavier.

After all, Arizona (33-3) is three losses by a combined 9 points away from being 36-0 right now right alongside Kentucky.  They beat Texas Southern (93-72) in the opening round, which is the same Texas Southern team that has wins over Michigan State and Kansas State this season.

In the Round of 32, the Wildcats put together one of their most impressive performances of the season.  They beat Ohio State 73-58 despite shooting just 36.5% from the field.  They did so by limiting the Buckeyes to just 3 second-chance points for the entire game while rebounding 78 percent of their misses.

Xavier couldn't have had an easier path to the Sweet 16, and therefore it is overvalued coming into this game.  It got to play an Ole Miss team that was tired after staging a huge comeback two days earlier against BYU in the opener.  Then, it got lucky and had Georgia State upset No. 3 Baylor.  The Musketeers would only beat Georgia State 75-67 despite shooting 67.6 percent from the floor, which was the third-best mark in the NCAA Tournament over the past 15 years.

Xavier has played some good teams this season, but it has yet to face a team the quality of Arizona.  The only thing close has been Villanova, and the Musketeers have been blown out three times by the Wildcats.  They lost 88-75 at Villanova, 78-66 at home against the Wildcats, and 69-52 in the Big East Tournament to Villanova.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Arizona is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Night Line Mistake on West Virginia +13.5

Bobby Huggins finds himself back in the Sweet 16 with a West Virginia team that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  What I love about the Musketeers is that they play a style of basketball that Kentucky isn't used to, and thus they have an excellent chance of hanging around in this game.

The Mountaineers beat Buffalo 68-62 before beating down Maryland 69-59.  They forced 23 turnovers and scored 26 points off of them in Sunday's win over Maryland.  The Terrapins only managed four points against their press in the second half.  They also forced turnovers on 26 percent of Buffalo's possessions in the opener.

Kentucky showed it was vulnerable as Cincinnati played it tough for the first 25 minutes.  The Wildcats did eventually pull away for a 64-51 victory, but they fell to 0-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Hampton by 23 as 34.5-point favorites and Cincinnati by 13 as 16-point favorites.  Once again, I believe the Wildcats are overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites over WVU.

West Virginia is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 post-season tournament games.  West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are battling for positioning in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  At 43-29 on the season, the Bulls lead the Raptors by 1/2-game for the No. 3 seed in the East.  Both teams could move up to No. 2, while both could also slip to No. 5.  Due to their standing, the defensive intensity in this game will be very high.

The Bulls have recently returned their top defender in Jimmy Butler from a 12-game absence.  He was rusty in his first game back, shooting 6-for-20 from the floor, but his defense helped the Bulls beat the Hornets 98-86 at home last time out.  The Bulls had gone over the total in eight straight prior to that game, and the total was inflated as a result.  It is inflated once again tonight.

Toronto is without its best player in Kyle Lowry, who is listed as doubtful Wednesday with a back injury.  He returned against the Pistons last night after missing two games with back spasms, but left in the second quarter and did not return.

Lowry missed last week's matchup with the Bulls after averaging 27.0 points in the previous two meetings.  The Bulls won that game 108-92 at home for 200 combined points on March 20th.  Now, less than a week later, these teams meet again.  They are obviously very familiar with one another now as this will be their 4th meeting of the season.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

The Bulls and Raptors have combined for 200 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Raptors last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 192

Both the Indiana Pacers & Washington Wizards have a lot to play for tonight, thus I believe the defensive intensity will be very high in this game.  Indiana is one game out of the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, while Washington is two games back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Both the Pacers and Wizards play at below-average paces this season.  Washington ranks 18th in the NBA in pace at 95.9 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 20th at 95.5 per contest.  Indiana ranks 25th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  Washington ranks 5th in defensive efficiency at 100.3 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 10th at 101.1 per contest.

What really stands out to me about this game is the recent head-to-head history.  The Wizards & Pacers have combined for 190 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, and 13 of the last 14 meetings overall.  They have combined for 187, 168, 173, 181, 187, 148 and 168 points in the last seven meetings at the end of regulation.  That's an average of 173.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 192.

Indiana is 14-4 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Washington is 15-5 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Wizards are 46-23 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games since 1996.  The UNDER is 30-13-2 in Wizards last 45 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks (34-36) and Miami Heat (32-37) are currently in the 6th and 7th spots in the Eastern Conference, respectively. Both are fighting to make the playoffs right now, so the defensive intensity will be there tonight, which is a big reason I like the UNDER in this game.

The Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season because of their work at the defensive end.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but just 24th in offensive efficiency.  With those numbers, it's no surprise that they have gone 39-31 to the UNDER in all games this season.

The Heat rank just 18th in offensive efficiency this season.  They have been decent defensively, giving up an average of 97.0 points per game this year.  But what stands out to me is that Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, it ranks 29th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is 40-29 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) this season.  The Heat are 22-6 to the UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bucks last 24 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings, including 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Lakers +10.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month in spite of their 18-50 record.  As a result, they have been undervalued time and time again because of their poor record.

Indeed, the Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You have to go all the way back to February 11th to find the last time that they lost a game by more than 9 points.  They have gone 15 games without losing by more than 9 points, which makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Lakers pertaining to tonight's 10.5-point spread.

This is a very tough spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are playing without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka.  They have a huge game coming up tomorrow night against the San Antonio Spurs, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Lakers.

The Thunder have only won two of their last 13 games by more than 9 points, making for an 11-2 system backing the Lakers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Los Angeles has played Oklahoma City very tough in the last two meetings, losing 103-104 and 101-108.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-14 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 games this year.  The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Chicago Bulls.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring game tonight.  Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so the defensive intensity will be there.

Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 13th.  Both teams play at deliberate paces as well.  Chicago ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Charlotte ranks 21st at 95.5 possessions per contest.

What really has this total inflated is the fact that Chicago has gone over the total in eight consecutive games coming in.  That has forced the books to set this number higher than it should be.  Charlotte ranks just 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHARLOTTE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 5 or more consecutive overs are 100-58 (63.3%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 12 meetings, and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces should be much heavier favorites today against the Eastern Illinois Panthers.  It's amazing that they even have to play this game on the road considering they are the better team, but that won't be a big deal since they are the better team, and now they're showing great value as only 2-point favorites.

Evansville is now 20-12 on the season following its 82-77 home victory over a pesky IUPU-Fort Wayne team in the opening round of the CIT.  This is a Purple Aces team that only lost twice in non-conference play, and both came by exactly two points against very good Green Bay and Murray State teams.  They also beat Northern Iowa, which has only lost four times all season.

Eastern Illinois is just 18-14 on the season.  It did upset Oakland 97-91 in the opening round of the CIT, but that effort has it overvalued coming in.  The Panthers lost by 33 to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament.  They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, which includes an 11-point loss to Missouri State, a 22-point loss to Creighton, and a 25-point loss to NC Central.

The Panthers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Purple Aces are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Evansville is 6-0 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Eastern Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight games where they had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Monday.

25* South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -6

Gonzaga (33-2, 17-1 WCC) got more of a scare from North Dakota State in the first round than it would have liked. While it was never in real serious jeopardy, it simply could not deliver the knockout blow in an 86-76 victory. Kyle Wiltjer was brilliant, connecting on 8-of-12 from the field for 23 points. Kevin Pangos added 18 points, including 4-of-9 from 3-point range, in the win.

The Bulldogs probably still feel like they got snubbed from a No. 1 seed. This is easily the best team that head coach Mark Few has ever had. They proved they were for real back in December when they took Arizona to overtime on the road. They also beat SMU by 16, Georgia by 12, St. John’s by 7, Washington State by 15 and UCLA by 13 out of conference. They outscore the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game.

Iowa put together perhaps the  most impressive performance of the tournament thus far in its 83-52 beat down of Davidson.  Many had picked the Wildcats to upset the Hawkeyes, but in the end, this was a total mismatch.  The Hawkeyes had a huge height advantage and they capitalized on it.  It turned out to be just a terrible matchup for the Wildcats.

This line is clearly an overreaction from Iowa blowing Davidson out and Gonzaga failing to cover in a 10-point win over North Dakota State. This line would have been set much closer to 10 had these teams played before the Round of 64 results. That’s why I believe there is value with the Zags, who will have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle.

Gonzaga is 18-9 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 18-7 ATS when playing on one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Gonzaga is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss.  Iowa is 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes won't have the height advantage they had against Davidson.  Bet Gonzaga.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Thunder UNDER 214.5

Both the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for playoff spots.  As a result, their defensive intensity will be at a high level, and I believe the books have set the bar too high in listing this total at 214.5.

When looking at the recent history int his series, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Miami and Oklahoma City have combined for 180, 184, 207, 210 and 200 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average combined score of 196.2 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than today's posted total of 214.5.

Miami is 27-12 UNDER versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 20-9 in Heat's last 29 road games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run.  They survived against Wofford in the opener, and that will give them confidence that they can pull out another close one against UNC today.

This is a team that went 27-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.  Three of its eight losses have actually come to Kentucky, so it has been nearly unbeatable outside of the Wildcats.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

North Carolina (25-11) has been inconsistent all season.  That showed again in a narrow 67-65 win over Harvard as 10-point favorites in the Round of 64.  I just don't believe this team should be laying points to the Razorbacks, who are the better squad in my opinion.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots this season.  UNC is 0-6 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Razorbacks.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Utah South Region No-Brainer on Georgetown +4.5

Georgetown (22-10, 12-6 Big East) put to rest all the talk that it couldn’t handle underdogs. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera scored 25 points, Mikael Hopkins had 10 points and nine rebounds, and the Hoyas avoided another tournament upset by beating No. 13 Eastern Washington 84-74 Thursday night. They had lost four of their last five tournament games, and they found themselves down by seven in the first half, but they eventually stormed out to a 23-point lead before holding on late.

The Hoyas have all the pieces to make a deep run. Former UCLA problem child Josh Smith is a dominant post force, Smith-Rivera can do everything a lead guard must do, Hopkins is the heart of the Hoyas’ defense, Isaac Copeland is a versatile freshman with an NBA future, and Jabril Trawick strikes fear into the opposition.

Utah has been extremely vulnerable down the stretch since a 21-4 start.  It has lost four of its last eight games overall, and it barely survived in a 57-50 win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  The Lumberjacks were within three points late, but the Utes iced it from the free throw line.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Hoyas tonight.

Remember, this is a Georgetown team that beat Villanova by 20 points earlier this season to hand the Wildcats one of their two losses. The Hoyas are 94-57 ATS in their last 151 non-conference games, including 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference opponents.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons Saturday.  When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have combined for 191, 193, 206, 199, 167, 178, 184, 189 and 167 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 186.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Now, you also have to factor in that both teams are without their top scorers.  Chicago is without leading scorer Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and second-leading scorer Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  Detroit is expected to be without leading scorer Greg Monroe (16.0 ppg) and second-leading scorer Brandon Jennings (15.4 ppg).

Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER in road games off a home win this season.  The Bulls are 11-1 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of its last game over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER In road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Pistons last 16 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dayton/Providence Late-Night BAILOUT on Dayton +3

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year as well.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Dayton trailed most of the way in its First Four game against Boise State, which was essentially a home game for the Flyers as it was played inside Dayton Arena. However, the Flyers got a game-winning 3-pointer from Sibert with 36 seconds left to play that proved to be the difference in a 56-55 victory over the Broncos. They improved to 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.

The Flyers are 14-4 ATS in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Dayton is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 non-conference road games.  The Flyers are 22-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last two years.  Providence is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games after covering four of its last five against the spread.

Dayton had a real home-court advantage in the First Four game and prevailed in a tight one with Boise State. Jordan Sibert was in foul trouble, but when he was on the floor the Flyers were dangerous. Now, they’ll actually get to play in their home state again in Columbus, Ohio, which is another huge advantage. I look for them to feed off of the crowd and to pull the upset of Providence, which is one of the more overrated teams in the country.  Roll with Dayton Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to all of their injuries.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as 1.5-point home favorites today against the Toronto Raptors.  After all, injuries didn't stop them from thumping Indiana 103-86 last time out.

The Bulls will now be working on a ton of rest.  They will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, which will be a huge advantage for them considering their injuries right now.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors.

Toronto is dealing with a key injury of its own.  Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an back injury, and he's the Raptors' best player.  They come in overvalued due to having won three of four, but their three wins came against Miami, Indiana and Minnesota.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -13

Oklahoma (22-10, 12-6 Big 12) finished in a tie for second place in the Big 12 this season, which was easily the strongest conference in the country. Veteran head coach Lon Krueger brought back a ton of talent from last year, and he added in Tashawn Thomas, a Houston transfer who provided the Sooners with a big who can score.

Without question, the Sooners have one of the best starting fives in the country. Buddy Hield (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is one of the best players in the land, but Isaiah Cousins (12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), TaShawn Thomas (11.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Spangler (10.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (9.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.9 apg) are all capable of carrying the team on a given night. The only weakness is a lack of depth off the bench.

Albany (24-8, 15-1 Am. East) rolled through a weak conference schedule, but it was a completely different story out of conference.  The Great Danes went just 9-8 in non-conference play.  They lost to Quinnipiac, Holy Cross, St. Francis, Bucknell and Niagara, which shows that they simply aren't very good.

Albany struggles to score the basketball as well, ranking 218th in scoring (65.5 points/game) and 312th in assists (10.4/game).  Oklahoma has no trouble scoring the basketball, ranking 65th at 71.9 points per game.  I look for the Sooners to jump out to a big lead, and for Albany to not have the firepower to hang around.

Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS against poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 21-10 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. They’ll be up against an Albany team that is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Take Oklahoma Friday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland -4

Maryland (27-6, 14-4 Big Ten) was one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  It continues to lack the respect it deserves as only a 4-point favorite over No. 13 Valparaiso in the Round of 64.  The Terrapins even deserved better than a No. 4 seed in my opinion.

Maryland went 10-1 in non-conference play with its only loss coming to then-No. 7 Virginia.  It beat then-No. 13 Iowa State 72-63 and Arizona State 78-73 for two impressive non-conference wins, while also going on the road and beating Oklahoma State (73-64).  It has six wins in Big Ten play against NCAA Tournament teams as well, including two over Michigan State and one over Wisconsin.

Valparaiso had a fine season at 28-5 and 13-3 in the Horizon League, but it is not battle-tested because it played such a soft schedule this year.  Its non-conference schedule was a joke with its best win coming against Murray State, but it also lost by 15 at Missouri (41-56), which was terrible this year.  The Horizon League was a joke this year as well outside of Wisconsin-Green Bay, which lost to Illinois State in the first round of the NIT.

The Terrapins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Valpo is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Terrapins.  Bet Maryland Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run, and I look for them to do just that starting with this game against Wofford.

It's obvious that the Razorbacks don't get the love they deserve when this line is only 7.5 in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.  I look for them to go out and earn it in this game.  This is a team that went 26-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.  Three of its eight losses this season came to Kentucky.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

Wofford posted an impressive 28-6 record this season, but it did so against the weakest of schedules.  The Terriers only had one good non-conference win this season, which was a 55-54 victory at NC State.  They were blown out by 33 at West Virginia, by 29 at Duke and by 15 at Stanford.  If they cannot compete with those teams, they certainly aren't going to hang with Arkansas.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons, coming back to win by an average of 15.1 points per game in this spot.  The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Terriers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. SEC foes.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas -1.5

The higher seed is going to beat the lower seed in this game between No. 11 Texas and No. 6 Butler.  It will be an upset in terms of the bracket, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have this one right in listing the Longhorns as the favorites.  They are the better team and it will show on Thursday.

Texas (20-13) was a popular pick to make the Final Four coming into the season.  With all five starters back, and the addition of future lottery pick Myles Turner, it's easy to see why.  Well, the Longhorns did not live up to expectations this year, and it didn't help that they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, as well as in the toughest conference in the country.

There's no denying that Texas has the pieces and the talent to make a deep run in the big dance.  They have a dynamic point guard in Isiah Taylor, a versatile wingman in Jonathan Holmes, and an imposing back line.  In fact, no team blocks more shots per possession than the Longhorns.  I believe their size will give the undersized Butler Bulldogs fits in this one.

When you look at Texas' season, it's easy to see that it was better than its record would indicate.  It played a brutal non-conference schedule with wins over Iowa, Cal and UConn, while losing to Kentucky and Stanford (OT).  Each of its last six losses in Big 12 play came by 8 points or less, so it was simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +14

The UAB Blazers benefited from playing the Conference USA Tournament in their home city. They parlayed that home-court advantage into a Conference USA Tournament title. They beat Western Kentucky 53-52, Louisiana Tech 72-62 (OT), and Middle Tennessee 73-60 to punch their ticket to the big dance.

However, I would argue that UAB (19-15) is much better than its record would indicate. In fact, each of its last six losses came by either 4 points or less or in overtime. You have to go all the way back to December 27th against North Carolina on the road to find the last time that the Blazers were really blown out. They were also blown out by Wisconsin, and lost to Florida by 9 and UCLA by 12 in the non conference.

Iowa State is getting a lot of hype coming into the NCAA Tournament due to its Big 12 Tournament win.  Well, nothing came easy for the Cyclones.  In fact, they have trailed by double-digits in each of their last five games and by a combined 75 points, yet they have gone 5-0 with all close victories.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition and falling behind early, which bodes well for the Blazers covering this 14-point spread.

Due to all of these close games, it’s no wonder that the Blazers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. UAB is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against a team with a winning record. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. UAB is also 10-1 ATS against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games this season.  Take UAB Thursday.

25* NCAA First Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Dayton -4

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Boise State is 25-8 on the season as well and had a very solid year.  But it played a much softer schedule than Dayton this season.  The Broncos are overvalued coming in due to having gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have to make a long trip to Dayton for this First-Four game, which is a huge disadvantage.

Dayton is 16-0 at home this season and has won its last 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division 1. The Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or more and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less.  Bet Dayton Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bucks UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Both teams come in tired as they are playing the second of a back-to-back.  I look for that to affect the offenses more than the defenses, and for this game to be played at a very slow pace as a result.

Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace as it is with San Antonio at 17th and Milwaukee at 14th.  What I really like about this play is that both teams rank in the top 10 in defense.  Milwaukee is 2nd in defensive efficiency, while San Antonio ranks 8th in defensive efficiency.

The Spurs are 20-12 to the UNDER in road games this season.  They are scoring just 97.5 points and allowing 96.1 points away from home this year.  The Bucks are 18-12 to the UNDER in home games, scoring 98.3 points and allowing 95.7 points per contest.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a loss.  These two trends combine for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER today folks.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -3

The Illinois State Redbirds (21-12) were overlooked this season in the Missouri Valley Conference.  That's because both Wichita State and Northern Iowa had tremendous seasons.  Well, there's no question that the Redbirds were the third-best team in the conference.

There's no question in my mind that the Redbirds were even better than their 21-12 record would suggest.  In fact, eight of their 12 losses came by 6 points or less, so they were simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay played an easier schedule than Illinois State coming from the Horizon League.  It posted a solid 25-8 record this season, but it just couldn't beat Valpo when it needed to to get in the big dance.  I believe the Phoenix are still deflated following their loss to the Crusaders in the championship game.

One way to compare teams is common opponents.  These teams played the same four teams this year.  Green Bay went 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Illinois State went 6-0 against those same four teams, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.

Illinois State is 11-2 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games after covering two of its last three against the spread.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Take Illinois State Wednesday.

15* First-Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +4

Many felt that the BYU Cougars (25-9) did not belong in the NCAA Tournament because of their lack of quality wins.  I would have to agree, but a big finish and a win over Gonzaga got them in even though they would lose by 16 to the Zags in the conference tournament.

The Cougars didn't have one really impressive win outside of the conference, but they lost to SDSU, Purdue and Utah.  The Ole Miss Rebels (20-12) had their fair share of quality non-conference wins.  They beat Cincinnati on a neutral court and Oregon on the road.

There's no question that the Rebels played the tougher schedule in the SEC.  They took Kentucky to overtime on the road, which was the toughest that any team played the Wildcats this season.  They also beat fellow NCAA Tournament team Arkansas and played several others very tight.

Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games this year.  The Cougars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games.  The Rebels are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Take Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +5.5

The Murray State Racers (27-5) are extremely disappointed that they won't be playing in the NCAA Tournament.  They felt like they did enough to get in, but the committee saw it differently after their lost to Belmont on a last-second 3-pointer in the conference championship game.

The UTEP Miners (22-10) are a very good team that played a much more difficult schedule than the Racers did this season.  They are the better team in this game in my opinion, and they should not even be underdogs to the Racers, let alone 5.5-point dogs.

UTEP did lose four non-conference games this year, but all four of them came by 7 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Arizona.  Murray State also lost four non-conference games, including a 74-77 home loss to Houston, a 62-89 loss at Xavier, and a 58-93 loss to Valparaiso.

The Miners are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Racers are 24-48 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game since 1997.  The Miners are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss.  The Racers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 185

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons tonight.  Both teams rely heavily on their big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for the Grizzlies and Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe for the Pistons.  This is going to be a great battle between these four.

Another thing that stands out to me is that both teams play at a very slow pace.  The Grizzlies rank 26th in the NBA in pace at 94.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons rank 20th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The Grizzlies are also 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Memphis has really been clamping down defensively here of late.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, including 83 and 81 in back-to-back games.  Detroit has hit the skids offensively, scoring less than 100 points in seven of its last eight contests.

Detroit is 20-8 to the UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Grizzlies last 27 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Pistons last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks have had ample time to rest and correct their mistakes.  They have had two days off since their 129-99 home victory over the LA Clippers on Friday.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 6 days, and I really like backing rested teams this time of year.

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is going to be a very tired team heading into this one.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days following a hard-fought 109-100 home victory over the Chicago Bulls Sunday.

Making matters worse for the Thunder is that they are extremely short-handed right now.  They remain without Kevin Durant due to a foot injury.  Now, they are also expected to be without Serge Ibaka, who is doubtful today with a knee injury.

The Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets (26-38) know that they need a big finish if they want to make the playoffs.  They sit three games behind Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They cannot afford to lose to lowly Minnesota (14-51) tonight.

The Nets will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go.  The Timberwolves, meanwhile, will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 97-123 at San Antonio yesterday.

Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games overall with four straight losses by 9 points or more.  Making matters worse for the Timberwolves if their long list of injuries.  Gary Neal, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic are all questionable to play today.  Anthony Bennett, Shabazz Muhammad and Robbie Hummel are all out.

Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.  The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -2

After a long stretch of poor play for about a month, the Washington Wizards (38-28) are finally back on track.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Not only have the Wizards been winning, they've been dominating.  They beat Charlotte 95-69 on the road, Memphis 107-87 at home, and Sacramento 113-97 at home.  This will only be their 3rd game in 7 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.

Portland is overvalued right now due to having won eight of its last nine.  This is the ultimate tough spot for the Blazers, who are coming off a 113-97 win at Toronto last night.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The home team has won three straight and 9 of the last 12 meetings in this series.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Washington.  The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -1.5

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Toronto Raptors as only 2-point home favorites.  They are 22-11 at home this season and have protected their home court very well, winning by an average of 5.0 points per game.

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, but they are just an average NBA road team this season.  They are 15-14 away from home where they are only outscoring foes by 0.9 points per game.

Toronto comes into this game way undervalued due to having lost nine of their last 11 games overall.  I backed them with success as a free pick on Friday with a 102-92 home victory over Miami as 5-point favorites.  I'll continue to roll them while they're undervalued today.

Portland is 4-16 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Toronto is 8-8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons.  It is winning by 8.2 points per game in this spot.  Take the Raptors Sunday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +14

The Arkansas Razorbacks are the type of team that can beat Kentucky.  They are nearly as athletic as the Wildcats, and they have a big man in Bobby Portis who is one of the best players in college basketball to match up with them.

Arkansas has been killing it in the SEC Tournament thus far.  They beat Georgia 60-49 yesterday, but also topped Tennessee 80-72 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate; they were up 20 at half.

Arkansas is 11-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.  The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS off a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  Kentucky is 5-12 ATS after allowing 30 points or less at the half in two straight games.  The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Bet Arkansas Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Jazz UNDER 186

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA in the second half of the season.  The reason for their improvement is how they get after it defensively led by Rudy Gobert.

The Jazz are 10-2 to the UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They have allowed 91 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 88 or fewer in seven of those.  I look for that streak to continue against the lowly Detroit Pistons tonight.

Utah is 9-1 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 9-1 UNDER after covering six or seven of their last eight games against the spread this season.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven road games.  The UNDER is  7-0 in Jazz last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 27-10 in Jazz last 37 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 Saturday No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones simply have the kind of momentum that's going to carry them to a Big 12 Championship Saturday.  They have won their first two games over Texas and Oklahoma by two points each while getting it done in the closing seconds.

Kansas had a much easier route to the title game, beating TCU and Baylor to get here.  But the Jayhawks are not a very deep team, so playing their 3rd game in 3 days will be tougher for them than it will be for the Cyclones, who have a deep bench.

The Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Iowa State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -3

Georgia Southern (21-8) fits one of my favorite systems Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe (21-11).  The Eagles have not played since March 7th, meaning they'll be well-rested and ready to go.

The same can not be said for the Warhawks, who played yesterday in a 77-59 victory over South Alabama.  Not only will the Warhawks be the less prepared team, they'll also be the more tired team after playing the second of a back-to-back.

The Warhawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.  Georgia Southern is 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 games overall.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5.5

The Phoenix Suns still have a realistic shot of making the Western Conference playoffs.  At 34-32 on the year, they are currently just 2.5 games behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final spot in the West.

With a 50-14 record on the season, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued here down the stretch.  They should not be laying 5.5 points on the road to the Suns in this one.  They are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have created expectations for themselves from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to, which gives us ample value to fade them.

Phoenix is 18-9 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season.  The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Atlanta is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -13

The Kentucky Wildcats are on a mission to go undefeated this season.  That will keep them plenty motivated in the SEC Tournament.  I like their chances of rolling the Florida Gators today, similar to their 67-50 victory over the Gators a week ago.

I like backing teams who are rested like Kentucky against teams on no rest like Florida who covered the day before.  The Wildcats received a bye in the SEC Tournament, while the Gators had to play Alabama yesterday.

Florida is 3-10 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Take Kentucky Friday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -9

The Davidson Wildcats have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They managed to win the Atlantic 10 in their first season as members of the conference.  That's a pretty impressive feat considering the A-10 just gets stronger every year.

What I really like about this play is that Davidson is rested after receiving a bye due to winning the conference.  Meanwhile, LaSalle is playing the second of a back-to-back after beating UMass yesterday.  I'll take the more fresh, more prepared team in the Wildcats in this one.

Davidson is 16-3 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.  The Wildcats are 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season.  The Explorers are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 vs. Atlantic 10.  The Wildcats are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.  Roll with Davidson Friday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -13.5

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game rested and ready to go.  This will be their first game of the Big Ten Tournament, while Michigan will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Illinois yesterday. 

I'll gladly back the rested team here laying what I believe is a small number given the huge difference in talent on these teams.  I also believe the Wolverines are a bit overvalued because they played well yesterday and covered the spread with ease while upsetting the Fighting Illini.

Wisconsin is 12-3 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Bet Wisconsin Friday.

15* SEC Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -4

The Vanderbilt Commodores (19-12) are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  This young squad has really grown up as the season has gone on, and they will be a dangerous out in the SEC Tournament.

The Commodores have played lights out for over a month now.  They are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses during this stretch came by a combined 6 points to Tennessee (74-76) and Florida (47-50).  They have gone on the road and beaten Alabama (76-68), Tennessee (73-65) and Ole Miss (86-77) over this span as well.

Tennessee (15-15) couldn't be playing a whole lost worse heading into the SEC Tournament.  It is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes an 18-point home loss to LSU, an 18-point home loss to Kentucky, an 8-point home loss to Vanderbilt, a 17-point road loss at Florida, and an 11-point home loss to South Carolina.  Give me the hot team and the small number.  Roll with Vanderbilt Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers (19-12) have nearly played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament down the stretch.  They have lost three in a row and are currently listed as the final team in the big dance on ESPN Joe Lunardi's "Last 4 In" list.

Without question, the Hoosiers need a win over Northwestern (15-16) to get in.  There's also no question that the Hoosiers are the better team.  However, due to their poor finish, coupled with the Wildcats' solid finish, the Hoosiers are shorter favorites than they should be in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.

Adding fuel to the fire for Indiana is the fact that it will be out for revenge form a 65-72 loss at Northwestern on February 25th just two weeks ago.  The Wildcats shot 51.0% from the field in that game.  Well, that contest was at home for Northwestern, and this one will be at a neutral site.

Northwestern is 20-43 ATS in its last 63 games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season.  The Hoosiers are 9-2 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover over the last 2 seasons.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* AAC Thursday No-Brainer on East Carolina -3

East Carolina (13-18) has been a covering machine down the stretch and one that I have backed with regularity.  In fact, the Pirates are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They even beat the likes of Cincinnati (50-46) as 10.5-point dogs, Memphis (64-53) as 5.5-point dogs during this stretch.

They also beat UCF (12-17) in both meetings over this span.  They won 67-49 at home over the Knights and 71-66 on the road.  I look for them to cap off the 3-0 season sweep and easily cover this 3-point spread today.

UCF has been atrocious down the stretch.  It is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  It lost 65-75 at home to Memphis as 8-point dogs, 60-83 at Cincinnati as 15.5-point dogs, 66-71 at home to ECU as 2-point favorites, and 45-74 at South Florida as 1-point road favorites.

ECU is 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Pirates are 9-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this year. The Knights are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Pirates.  Take East Carolina Thursday.

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -3

This is easily my favorite play in the conference tournaments up to this point.  The Illinois Fighting Illini (19-12) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and desperately need a win or two in the conference tournament to get in.

In fact, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Fighting Illini as the second team on the "Next Four Out" list, so they have some work to do.  I look for them to come out highly motivated in this game against Michigan (15-15) as a result.

The Big Ten Tournament will essentially be a home venue for the Fighting Illini as it will be played in Chicago, Illinois.  That extra support from the home fans should certainly help their cause, but I think the way they are playing coming in is big, too.

Illinois has gone 6-4 in its last 10 games overall with its only four losses coming to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue.  Three of those losses came by 8 points or less, and three of them also came on the road.  Four of their wins have come by double-digits, including a 64-52 triumph over Michigan on January 12th.

While Illinois is finally healthy with leading scorer Rayvonte Rice recently returning, Michigan has been banged up all season and continues to be without its top two players in Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr.  These injuries have caught up to the Wolverines down the stretch as they have gone 2-7 in their last nine games overall.

Michigan is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons.  Illinois is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.  These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -1

The North Texas Mean Green (14-16) should be a much heavier favorite today against the Rice owls (11-19).  I'll gladly take advantage and back the Mean Green in what I fully expect to be a blowout in the opening round of the C-USA Tournament.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement.  North Texas is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Rice.  It won 75-65 at home and 66-63 on the road in the two meetings this season. 

The Mean Green shot 56.6% in the home win while the Owls shot 15-of-27 (55.6%) from 3-point range, yet the Mean Green still won that game by 10 points.  North Texas also shot 50.0% in the 3-point road win.  This is simply a terrible matchup for the Owls.

The Mean Green Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  North Texas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  Roll with North Texas Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

This is a very generous price we are getting Wednesday on the Grizzlies as only 4.5-point road favorites over the Celtics.  We are getting the No. 2 team in the West in Memphis (45-18) up against the No. 10 team in the East in Boston (26-36) at this short number.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Memphis is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston with all five victories coming by 4 points or more.  In fact, the Grizzlies are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 trips to Boston, which is simply a ridiculous trend that needs backing tonight.

The Celtics are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 49-28 ATS in its last 77 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Boston is 46-77 ATS in its last 123 home games off an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* Big 12 Wednesday No-Brainer on Kansas State -1.5

The Kansas State Wildcats (15-16) will have a decisive home-court advantage over TCU (17-14) in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament Wednesday.  This tournament is being played in Kansas City, Missouri as it is every year.

The Wildcats impressed me quite a bit down the stretch.  They won their final three home games against the top three teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa State, so they are playing very well coming in.

TCU ended the season on a three-game losing streak, including a 13-point home loss to Iowa State and a 12-point road loss at Oklahoma State.  The Horned Frogs went just 4-14 in Big 12 play this season.  Two of their wins came against conference bottom feeder Texas Tech, while the other two were at home against Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

Kansas State is 5-1 against TCU in six meetings as Big 12 opponents.  The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Bet Kansas State Wednesday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte PK

The Charlotte 49ers are certainly a team I've had my eye on this season due to their impressive non-conference play.  They have been a covering machine here down the stretch, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.

Middle Tennessee couldn't have had a much worse finish to the season, and it continues to be overvalued here.  The Blue Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are 4-7 straight up during this stretch with their four wins coming against mostly conference bottom feeders.

Charlotte has impressed me against some good teams during its 6-3 ATS run.  It only lost by 4 at Old Dominion as 8.5-point dogs, by 5 at UTEP as 8-point dogs, and by 1 at home to LA Tech as 4.5-point dogs.  Those are arguably the three best teams in the conference, and the 49ers went toe-to-toe with them.

The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.  The Blue Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Middle Tennessee is 7-19 ATS in  its last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Charlotte Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Brooklyn Nets (25-36) trail the Charlotte (28-34) and Indiana (28-34) by 2.5 games for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  After losing three straight coming into this one, they'll be highly motivated for a victory when they host the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

New Orleans (35-29) is also in a tight battle for the final playoff spot in the West, but it is in a very tough spot here tonight.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is about as difficult a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the year.

Making matters worse for the Pelicans is that they'll be without three key players.  Jrue Holiday (15.2 ppg) and Ryan Anderson (14.6 ppg) have both been out for quite some time, but now second-leading scorer Tyreke Evans (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5.3 rpg) suffered an ankle injury against Milwaukee last night and is doubtful to go.  The Pelicans are already tired as it is, and now they're even more short-handed.

Brooklyn is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  The Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* Horizon League Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin-Green Bay +4

Wisconsin-Green Bay (24-7) and Valparaiso (27-5) have been the two best teams in the Horizon League all season.  It's fitting that they'll be meeting in the conference championship game tonight, and I look for another tightly-contested battle.

The two regular season meetings both went right down to the wire.  Green Bay won 50-51 at home, while Valpo won 63-59 at home.  As you can see, the two were decided by a combined 5 points.  There's a good chance this 4-point spread comes into play again in the 3rd meeting, but I'm only taking the points for some insurance as I expect the Phoenix to win outright.

Valpo had a key injury happen in the semifinals when it lost Tevonn Walker to a knee injury.  Walker (10.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg) is doubtful to play tonight.  He was the only reason they beat Green Bay at home in their last meeting.  He scored 20 points as one of only two Valpo players in double figures.  He attacked the rim and made plays, but without him the Crusaders just aren't nearly as strong.

"Everybody has to step up. There's not one guy on our team that can replace what Tevonn gives us defensively and offensively," leading scorer Alec Peters said.  "You have to fight even harder when your teammate goes down."

The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Valpo is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Crusaders are 3-11 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  Green Bay is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 road games with a total set of 120 to 129.5 points.  Take Green Bay Tuesday.

20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you will find in the NBA, especially this late in the season.  They will have nothing left to give tonight.

Washington comes into this game on a day of rest and highly motivated for a win.  It is undervalued in this game due to having lost eight of its last 10 games overall.  Meanwhile, Charlotte is overvalued due to having won five straight coming in with four of those against non-playoff teams.

The Wizards are also going to be motivated to put an end to their five-game losing streak against the Hornets in this series.  The last four have all went down to the wire and have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Wizards are catching the tired Hornets at the right time to put an end to their skid in this series.

Charlotte is 10-23 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Washington is 74-51 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* MAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois +6.5

Northern Illinois is certainly a sleeper in the MAC Tournament.  This is a team I have had my eye on quite a bit down the stretch as one that could make a deep run in the conference tournament with the way they have been playing of late.

The Huskies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, but their solid play extends back even further.  They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They only lost by 4 at WMU as 6-point dogs and by 2 at CMU as 10.5-point dogs.  They beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs, WMU by 2 as 1-point home favorites, and Ball State by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites.

Akron is not playing well at all coming in and should not be a 6.5-point favorite here.  It is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming at home against Ohio.  Injuries have been a big reason for the poor play.  The Zips are expected to be without their top two scorers tonight in Pat Forsythe (10.7 ppg) and Noah Robotham (9.9 ppg), who have each missed some time down the stretch.

NIU is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.  NIU is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Huskies.  Take Northern Illinois Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons PK

The Detroit Pistons (23-38) are highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to a five-game losing streak.  They trail the 8th place team in the East by 4.5 games and cannot afford to fall further behind.  One of the teams they are chasing is Charlotte (27-33), which will only add to the motivation today.

Detroit's recent 5-game skid is more due to playing a tough schedule than anything.  It has lost to Cleveland and New York at home, as well as Washington, New Orleans and Houston on the road.  All five losses came by 10 points or less, so the Pistons were competitive in every game.

The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  The Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -5

The Northern Iowa Panthers (29-3) are showing solid value as only 5-point favorites Sunday in the Missouri Valley Championship Game.  They would have been bigger favorites today had Illinois State (21-11) not upset Wichita State yesterday, which has the Redbirds way overvalued coming in.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Redbirds, winning by 19 and 13 points at home, as well as 1-point on the road.  That's an average victory of 11 points per game in the last three meetings.

The Redbirds are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  The Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.  The Panthers are 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. Missouri Valley.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -3

Iowa State (21-8) is going to the NCAA Tournament.  TCU (17-13) is not.  So Iowa State has a lot to play for as far as seeding.  A win would put the Cyclones in the No. 3 seed most likely which is a good spot for them.  If they lost they'll drop to a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, which would put them up against a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.  They are motivated for seeding reasons, obviously.

The Cyclones are 5-0 in their last five meetings with TCU.  They have won by 17, 11, 15, 34 and 13 points, so none of the five meeting were even close.  They have won by an average of 18 points per game, and all they have to do is win by 4 to cover this small spread Saturday.

TCU is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The Horned Frogs are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.  TCU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +10

The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot.  They just beat the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, which are their biggest contenders tow in the East in 2014-15.  They showed that they could beat them, and after that satisfying victory there's no question they will let down Saturday.

Atlanta doesn't care if it beats Philly or not tonight.  That lack of motivation will have it playing down to its level of competition.  That's why the 76ers are a great play tonight.  They are paying better here of late, but I'm not backing them because their good.  I'm backing them because Atlanta doesn't care about winning this game, while Philly wants to show that it can compete with the best the East has to offer.

Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season. Atlanta is 63-94 ATS (-40.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.  The 76rers are 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.  The Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the 76ers Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -11.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes (20-10) are going to be in the NCAA Tournament.  While that fact might keep them less motivated than they would be otherwise, they are still going to have every reason to be motivated Saturday morning.

The Hawks want revenge for their overtime loss to Northwestern by a final of 66-61 on January 15th about two weeks ago.  They also want to perform well on Senior Night.  Those two factors have me knowing that they'll be motivated, and as long as they've motivated, they'll have no problem covering the 11.5-point spread here.

The Wildcats are 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1997.  Iowa is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.  The Hawks are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997.

The Hawkeyes are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Iowa is 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a S.U. win. Basically, if Iowa would have beaten Northwestern in the first meeting I wouldn't be on them as much.  But the fact that they lost keeps them motivated.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Rockets UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high tonight in the Pistons/Rockets game tonight! We want to back the UNDER in this contest as both teams will likely end up with 100 or less points in this one.

Detroit is 8-1 to the UNDER in its last nine road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  Detroit is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -15

Favorites of 6 points or more who come in on at least one day of rest are 124-78 (61.4%) ATS against opponents who are coming in off an ATS win and on no days of rest.  This situation has been a big money maker since 2006, and I'm going to follow it today.

Northern Iowa is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game this season.  The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +1

The Drake Bulldogs (9-21) take on the Bradley Braves (8-23) in a No. 7 vs. No. 10 battle in the opening round of the Missouri Valley Tournament tonight.  Both teams have poor records, but I certainly like the way the Bulldogs are playing in comparison to the Braves coming in.

While Drake is just 6-12 SU in MVC play this year, it is 10-6-2 ATS.  It has recent wins over Missouri State (73-48), Bradley (60-54), Southern Illinois (63-61), Evansville (70-65) and Bradley (69-57).  As you can see, the Bulldogs have swept the season series with the Braves, yet they are underdogs in the third and final meeting.

Bradley is 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has rarely been competitive, too, losing by 5 to Loyola, by 6 to Drake, by 13 to Illinois State, by 17 to Northern Iowa, by 3 to Missouri State and by 8 to Indiana State with three of those losses coming at home.

Bradley is 1-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Braves are 1-9 ATS in all road games in tournament games over the past three seasons.  Drake is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Bulldogs are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Bet Drake Thursday.

15* Thunder/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook is playing banged up right now and may not suit up tonight.

Chicago has injury issues of its own.  It is without its top two scorers in Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler.  Points have been hard to come by for the Bulls lately, and they will continue to be tonight.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have seen 189 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 182, 202, 174, 188, 170 and 189 points in those six meetings, or an average of 184.2 combined points per game.  That's roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.

OKC is 9-1 to the UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Thunder are 26-11 to the UNDER after allowing 100-plus points in four straight games since 1996.  Chicago is 31-14 to the UNDER off a home win over the past two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -8

This game has everything you want about a GAME OF THE YEAR selection.  The Illinois Fighting Illini have numerous reasons to be motivated, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers have nothing to play for at this point and appear to have packed it in.

Illinois is currently listed on the "First Four Out" list by ESPN's Joe Lunardi in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  It obviously cannot afford to lose this game if its wants to go dancing.  That is the most obvious reason the Illini will be motivated.

Another is the fact that this is Senior Night for the Illini.  They have three senior starters in leading scorer Rayvonte Rice (16.3 ppg), Ahmad Starks (8.2 ppg) and Nnanna Egwu (6.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg).  These players will go the extra mile to get these seniors one final home win.

The third and final reason the Illini will be motivated is because they want revenge from a 43-53 loss at Nebraska back on January 11th.  Rice did not play in that game as he was out with an injury, and the Illini shot just 27.3% from the field to hand the Huskers the victory.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more.

Nebraska is one of the worst road teams in college basketball.  It is just 1-10 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 10.5 points per game.  It has lost eight straight road games with seven of those losses coming by 8 points or more, and six by 11 or more.

Illinois is 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.7 points per game.  The Fighting Illini bounce back from three straight losses at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and at Iowa with an emphatic 86-60 home win over Northwestern last time out.  They are clearly battle-tested coming into this game after playing such a brutal schedule.  They had won four straight prior to that 3-game skid against the Big Ten's best.

Nebraska really does appear to have quit.  It has lost six straight coming into this game with five of those losses coming by double-digits.  That includes back-to-back embarrassments at home to Iowa 46-74 and at Ohio State 57-81.  Players just aren't seeing eye-to-eye with head coach Tim Miles right now.

Illinois is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of its last game.  The Cornhuskers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Nebraska is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Illini are 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.  Bet Illinois Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5

The Brooklyn Nets (25-33) and Charlotte Bobcats (25-33) are tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Obviously, both teams are going to want this game pretty badly, but I believe the Nets are in a much better position than the Hornets to get it tonight.

Charlotte is a very tired team right now as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping the lowly Los Angeles Lakers at home 104-103 last night.  It comes in having lost six of its last nine games overall with two of its wins coming against the Magic and Lakers.  It remains without starting PG Kemba Walker.

Brooklyn comes into this game almost fully healthy and on a days' rest after last playing on Monday in an impressive 110-108 win over Golden State.  The Nets are also playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have won four of their last six and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven.

They covered in an 86-95 loss at Memphis as 13-point dogs where they were playing their 4th game in 5 days.  They beat the Lakers 114-105 as 3-point road favorites, the Nuggets 110-82 as 2-point road favorites, the Mavs 104-94 as 8-point road dogs, and the Warriors 110-108 as 5.5-point home dogs.  They did lose to New Orleans 96-102 as 2.5-point road favorites, but narrowly lost at Houston 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.  This is an impressive stretch to say the least against many of the top teams in the West.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Nets are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Hornets.  Each of their last eight wins in this series have come by 5 points or more, including seven by 9 points or more.  That includes a 114-87 road win on December 13th in their first and only meeting of the 2014-15 season.

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in March home games over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nets are 5-0 ATS when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.