15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -13.5

The Miami Hurricanes are chomping at the bit right now to hit the field.  They haven't played a game since September 2nd due to Hurricane Irma.  It's safe to say they'll be hungry, rested and ready to go when the hit the field Saturday.

The same cannot be said for Toledo, which has played each of the first three weeks and is coming off a barn-burner against Tulsa.  The Rockets won that game 54-51 at home in a back-and-forth affair, and they won't have a whole lot left in the tank to face the Hurricanes here.  I don't think they'll be able to match Miami's energy in this one.

I can't say that Toledo has been all that impressive.  The wins have come against Elon as a 44.5-point favorite, Nevada as an 11-point favorite and Tulsa as a 7-point favorite.  They only beat Nevada by 13, and that's a Nevada team that just lost at home to Idaho State 28-30 as a 32.5-point favorite.  Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State 24-59 and is basically in rebuilding mode.

I really believe Miami is a national title contender this year.  The Hurricanes return 15 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games, including a 31-14 victory over WVU in the bowl game.  They are loaded at running back and receiver, and they have eight starters back from a defense that gave up only 18.5 points per game last year.  This is one of the best defenses in the country.

Miami has feasted on Group of 5 teams in non-conference action in recent years.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in such games over the past three seasons.  They beat FAU 38-10 as 25-point home favorites last year, then crushed a good Appalachian State team 45-10 as only 3-point road favorites.  I think they make easy work of Toledo by two touchdowns or more here at home Saturday.

Mark Richt is 6-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of Miami.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last three years.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Roll with Miami Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +28

This is an awful spot for the Tennessee Volunteers.  It's a clear sandwich spot.  They are coming off a deflating 26-20 loss at Florida in which the Gators scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game thanks to a huge breakdown in covered.  Now the Vols have an even bigger game on deck at home against Georgia next week that will likely decide whether or not they are contenders in the SEC East.  The Vols could care less about beating UMass by a margin here.

They'll be more concerned about getting healthy.  Tennessee has already lost four starters to season-ending injury.  They have six more guys who are questionable for Saturday's game.  Don't be surprise to see the Vols take a cautious approach here to try and make sure that they have all hands on deck against Georgia next week.

That's a bad Florida team that Tennessee just lost to, one that was destroyed by Michigan in their opener and one that is missing 10-plus players due to injuries and suspensions.  And Tennessee was extremely fortunate to beat Georgia Tech 42-41 in overtime in their opener.  They were actually outgained by 286 yards by the Yellow Jackets.  I just don't think this Tennessee team is very good.

UMass is the perfect 'buy low' candidate that I like to back this week.  They have started 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  But a closer look shows that all four of their losses have come by 10 points or less, so they've been competitive in every game.  They have only been outgained by 3 yards per game on the season despite their 0-4 record.  I backed them last week as 14.5-point dogs at Temple in a 21-29 loss.  They should have won that game outright as they outgained Temple by 71 yards.

Head coach Mark Whipple knows how to coach up an offense, and the Minutemen will score plenty of points to stay within the number against this suspect Tennessee defense.  QB Andrew Ford has been impressive, completing 64.3% of his passes with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has three great weapons outside who are all averaging at least 14 yards per receptions and who have at least 17 receptions each on the season in Adam Breneman, Andy Isabella and Sadiq Palmer.

I think the fact that UMass is playing an SEC opponent will help them get back up off the mat from this 0-4 start and put together a competitive performance here Saturday.  Tennessee doesn't give these non-conference opponents much respect, and that showed last year.  They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State as 20-point favorites.  They only beat Ohio by 9 as 27-point favorites as well.  This that Tennessee team was much better than this 2017 version.

Whipple is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of UMass.  The Minutemen are actually winning 35.7 to 29.2 on average in this spot.  The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +3.5

The Arizona Wildcats have the makings of one of the most improved teams in the country from what I've seen thus far.  They have opened 2-1 with a pair of blowout victories and a tough 16-19 loss to Houston.   Holding that Houston offense to only 19 points is no small feat as this defense is clearly way improved.

The Wildcats hung 62 points on Northern Arizona and 63 on UTEP in their two blowout victories.  Brandon Dawkins has a focus this season as a junior that he hasn't had in the past.  He's on a mission to prove his naysayers wrong.  The Arizona quarterback is in charge of a Wildcats offense that is averaging 328 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry this season.  They are also completing 66.2% of their passes.

Utah has played three cake opponents.  The Utes only won 37-16 over North Dakota in their opener, then won a hard-fought 19-13 contest at BYU.  That's the same BYU team that lost 27-0 to LSU and 40-6 to Wisconsin, while also barely beating Portland State.  Then the Utes won 54-16 over San Jose State last week, which lost 56-0 to Texas.  The Spartans committed five turnovers to aid the Utes' cause.

Last year in their Pac-12 home opener, the Wildcats took Washington to overtime as 13-point home dogs.  That's a Washington team that ended up winning the Pac-12 and making the four-team playoff.  I think Rich Rodriquez and company want to make a statement here Friday night to let everyone know they won't be pushovers in the Pac-12 this season.

I like the fact that Arizona has had a full week to prepare after playing last Friday, while Utah played on Saturday and will be on short rest.  I also like that Arizona is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Utah in the past five years under Rodriquez.  The Wildcats have outgained the Utes in all five meetings while racking up at least 469 yards in all five games.  That's impressive when you consider Utah is considered one of the better defensive teams in the country year in and year out.  Rodriquez simply has their number.

"They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country," Kyle Whittingham said of the Wildcats. "They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.  The games we lost, we did not do a good job defending the run. So, that is going to be job No. 1 this week like it is every week."

Whittingham is 11-27 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games, while the Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last even meetings.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -145

The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds that has them just 1.5 games back in the second wild card spot.  Both the Rockies and Brewers are falling apart, while the veteran Cardinals who are used to big-game pressure are surging right now.

Now the Cardinals get to face a Pirates team that looks to have quit, going 2-12 in their last 14 games overall.  And they get to face a cold starting pitcher in Ivan Nova, who is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA in his last three starts.  Nova is also 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals, giving up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

Michael Wacha is 12-8 with a 4.01 ERA in 28 starts this season for the Cardinals, including 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his last three.  Wacha is 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 14 career starts against Pittsburgh.  He pitched 8 shutout innings in a 7-0 victory in his last start against them on September 10th earlier this month.

The Cardinals are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 20-7 in Wacha's last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Nova's last four starts.  Pittsburgh is 7-21 in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

15* Rams/49ers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

This line indicates that the Los Angeles Rams would be favored by roughly 6 points over the San Francisco 49ers on a neutral field.  And I simply think that's too much.  This line should be either a PK or the 49ers as a small favorite because there isn't that much difference between these two teams.

The Rams are going to be favorites for the third straight week, which hasn't happened in a long time for them.  Sure, they are going to be improved this year, but they haven't played anyone yet.  They crushed the Colts, who may be the worst team in in the NFL right now.  And they lost to a Redskins team that I'm down on, both at home.  Now the Rams have to go on the road for the first time.

I was on the 49ers last week against the Seahawks, and they nearly pulled off the road upset as 14-point dogs in a 12-9 loss.  I think this team is way undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  But their other loss came to the Panthers.  The Rams would be 0-2 if they played those two teams as well.

The 49ers have a defense they can lean on.  They are giving up just 17.5 points and 299 yards per game this season.  They are also only allowing 4.3 yards per play.  The Rams gave up 385 total yards to the Redskins last week, including a ridiculous 229 rushing.  They are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That plays right into the 49ers' hands because their strength is running the football.  Carlos Hyde is fourth in the league in rushing with 169 yards.  What is most impressive is the fact that he is averaging 7.0 yards per carry.  He should find plenty of success on the ground against the Rams here, and Brian Hoyer should be much sharper in his third start of the season, especially if his receivers stop dropping the ball.

The 49ers have owned the Rams in recent years, going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  They swept the season series last year, winning 28-0 at home.  Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's time to 'buy low' on San Francisco tonight.  Take the 49ers Thursday.

20* Temple/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida -18.5

The South Florida Bulls are one of the top Group of 5 teams along side the San Diego State Aztecs.  One of these teams will likely be playing in a big bowl game at the end of the season.  I think that team is more likely to be the Bulls.

But because South Florida got off to a slow start with lackluster wins over San Jose State and Stony Brook, I think that has them undervalued now.  That showed last week as the Bulls crushed Illinois 47-23 as 16.5-point favorites.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulls even overcame 14 first half penalties alone to put up 680 yards of total offense.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Temple is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and that is showing early as they are 0-3 ATS.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.

I then backed UMass +14.5 last week at Temple in a game the Minutmen should have won outright.  They outgained Temple by 71 yards in that contest.  And that's a UMass team that is 0-4 now.  So Temple struggled to put them away, and they have no shot of hanging with a team the class of USF.  This should be Notre Dame 2.0 as Temple gets steamrolled.

Temple won the AAC last year thanks in large part to its 46-30 win over South Florida.  The Bulls certainly have not forgotten, and they beat Temple 44-23 at home in 2015 the last time here.  And you know South Florida is going to bring the offense.  The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in an FBS-best 19 straight games now.

Temple gave up 422 rushing yards to Notre Dame in its opener.  Then it allowed 382 passing to Villanova and 377 passing to UMass.  This clearly isn't the same stout Temple defense that we've seen over the last few years.  That's probably due to losing five of their top six tacklers on that side of the ball.  Their front seven is very weak right now.

The Bulls are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  South Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+100)

The St. Louis Cardinals won yesterday and gained a game on both the Rockies and Brewers in the wild card, the two teams they are chasing.  This team is feeling good about themselves right now at just 2.5 games back with 11 games to go.  They are in must-win mode the rest of the way.

The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Reds.  They should stay red hot at the plate against Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, who is 5-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 7.78 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in eight home starts.  Bailey is 6-12 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in 22 career starts against St. Louis.  He gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 4-13 loss to the Cardinals in his last start against them on August 6th.

Carlos Martinez has been as consistent as they come this season.  He is 11-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 30 starts this year.  Martinez is also 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in seven career starts against the Reds.

St. Louis is 14-2 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 2-7 in Bailey's last nine home starts.  The Reds are 13-40 in their last 53 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -119

The Chicago Cubs are only 3.5 games up on the Brewers in the NL Central, so they have a lot to play for right now.  That has shown as they've gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall.  The Tampa Bay Rays have nothing to play for but pride after going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall to fall to 73-78 on the season.

We're getting Jon Lester and the Cubs at a nice value here as small road favorites over the Rays.  Lester is 3-0 with a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts and pitching well right now.  The Rays are just 17-28 (-10.6 units) against left-handed starters this season, hitting .228 and scoring only 4.0 runs per game off them.

Blake Snell, who is 3-6 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 21 starts this season, should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Cubs are 21-12 (+4.8 units) against left-handed starters this season, hitting .277 and scoring 5.7 runs per game off them.

The Cubs are 11-1 in their last 12 interleague games.  Chicago is 31-12 in its last 43 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cubs are 8-0 in their last eight vs. AL East opponents.  Tampa Bay is 1-7 in its last eight vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cubs are 25-5 in Lester's last 30 starts vs. a team with a losing record.   Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Marlins OVER 9.5

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins should easily top this 9.5-run total today.  The Mets have been the best OVER team in baseball, going 86-53 to the OVER on the season, including 46-26 in road games.  The Marlins are 77-62 to the OVER on the year as well.

Seth Lugo is 6-5 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Lugo has gone 1-2 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three starts as well, averaging just 4.7 innings per start.

Odrisamer Despaigne hasn't been much better, going 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five starts this year.  He is 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts, averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  It looks like we'll get into the bullpens early in this one.

The The Mets are 50-24 OVER vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.  The OVER is 12-4 in Mets last 16 road games.  The OVER is 8-1-3 in Marlins last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 10-3-1 in Lugo's last 14 starts, including 7-1-1 in his last nine road starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Lions/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter last week against the Cardinals, but then reeled off 21 straight points after David Johnson went out with an injury.  The Cardinals handed them the game by committing four turnovers, including three picks from Carson Palmer.  Now the Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers heading into Week 2 based on one performance.

This is the perfect sell high, buy low game.  We'll sell high on the Lions, and buy low on a New York Giants team that looked awful on the National TV stage in a 3-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.  But the Cowboys simply wanted that game more after getting swept by the Giants last year.  Look for the Giants to bring a different, more determined mindset into their home opener on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

It would be nice if the Giants get Odell Beckham back this week from injury, but if not I still like them at -3.5.  This line is only going to climb if it's announced he is playing.  But the Giants still have plenty of weapons outside to get the job done in Brandon Marshall, Evan Ingram and Sterling Shephard.

But what really makes the Giants the right side is their huge advantage defensively.  Pro Football Focus ranked the Giants the best defense in the NFL last year, and they have basically everyone back.  Holding a potent Cowboys offense to just 19 points last week was impressive, especially since the Giants only held the ball for 25 minutes on offense.  New York defenders fought through fatigue and had an admirable performance.

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and now they are heavily injured on this side of the ball early on in 2017.  DE Kerry Hyder and DE Armonty Bryant are out.  The Lions also have injuries two two starting tacklers on offense in Taylor Decker (out) and Corey Robinson (questionable).  I expect the Giants to win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this one.

The Giants beat the Lions 17-6 at home last season behind a dominant effort defensively, and we can anticipate more of the same in the rematch.  Detroit is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off an upset win as a home dog.  Jim Caldwell is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of Detroit.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Marlins OVER 8.5

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins should easily top this 8.5-run total Monday.  The Mets have been the best OVER team in baseball, going 85-53 to the OVER on the season, including 45-26 in road games.  The Marlins are 76-62 to the OVER as well.

Matt Harvey has completely lost it.  He is 5-5 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.855 WHIP in nine road starts.  He recently returned from injury to go 1-2 with a 12.20 ERA and 2.420 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Dan Straily is having a decent season overall at 9-9 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 30 starts.  But he is starting to wear down, going 1-1 with an 8.44 ERA and 2.125 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Mets are 49-24 OVER vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.  Straily is 17-5 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 11-4 in Mets last 15 road games.  The OVER is 7-1-3 in Marlins last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 8-2-2 in Straily's last 12 starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

If you don't jump on now you're going to miss the boat on the Los Angeles Rams.  This is going to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  The 46-9 win over the Indianapolis Colts was no fluke last week, and I look for the Rams to make easy work of the Washington Redskins as only 2.5-point home favorites in Week 2.

Sean McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history, and his players feed off his energy.  He ran an excellently-designed offense in Washington before coming here, and that offense was on display in a big way against the Colts.  It's no accident Jared Goff had the best game of his career, completing 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It was Goff's first victory as a starting QB, and there will be many more to come under McVay's tutelage.

The Rams have had one of the most talented defenses in the NFL over the last few years, and the offense has simply held them back.  But now this defense can flourish in 2017.  That was the case against the Colts as the D held them to just 225 total yards while forcing three turnovers.  And that was even without their best player in DT Aaron Donald, who could return to action this week.

I'm way down on the Redskins this season.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, one that gave up 30 points, 356 total yards and 5.7 yards per play to the Eagles last week.  The offense will take a step back without McVay calling the shots, especially with the losses of two of their best weapons in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in the offseason.  This offense managed just 264 total yards and 4.6 per play against the Eagles last week.

The Rams are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +14

This is a massive spread for a division rivalry game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.  The Seahawks are clearly the better team, but asking them to win by two touchdowns or more to cover the spread is asking too much here Sunday.

The Seahawks have issues offensively that aren't immediately fixable, and that was evident in their 9-17 road loss to the Packers in Week 1.  They managed just 225 total yards against an average Packers defense.  Russell Wilson completed just 51.9% of his passes for 135 yards on 27 attempts.

Seattle has the same problem offensively that it has had for the last several years.  It fails to upgrade the offensive line, and Russell Wilson continuously has to run for his life.  Of course, it didn't help matters when starting LT George Fant suffered and torn ACL in the preseason.

That makes this a good matchup for the 49ers, whose strength is their front seven defensively.  The 49ers have added elite talent in the early rounds of recent NFL drafts to upgrade their defensive line and LB corps.  They still have Navorro Bowman around to lead the troops, and he remains one of the elite LB's in the league.

The 49ers played a better game than the 23-3 final would indicate against the Panthers, especially defensively.  They only allowed 287 total yards to the Panthers and 4.6 yards per play.  They were very good against the run, limiting the Panthers to just 3.1 yards per carry on 38 attempts.  I think their defense will keep them in this game.

The offense obviously was not effective in managing just a field goal against the Panthers.  But Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the game as we saw last year with the Falcons, and he will figure out a way to make this offense hum.  It's a complex scheme that wasn't going to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1, but I look for Brian Hoyer and company to take a step forward this week.

The Seahawks are notorious slow starters.  They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Week 2 games.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC West opponents.  I expect San Francisco to harass Russell Wilson for four quarters and stay within two touchdowns this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-105)

The Colorado Rockies are inching closer to clinching their playoff spot.  They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall, including blowout victories over the Padres in each of the first two games in this series, outscoring them 22-1 in the process.

I think the blowouts continue behind talented starter Jon Gray, who is 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA in six home starts this year, and 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.  Gray is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in eight career starts against San Diego as well.

Jhoulys Chacin has some of the most drastic home/road splits in the majors this year.  He has been awful on the road, going 4-7 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in 14 road starts this year.  It isn't going to get any easier for him here against a hot-hitting Rockies lineup inside a hitter's ballpark at Coors Field.

Colorado is 15-3 in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season this season.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  San Diego is 6-24 in road games after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  It is losing by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Yes, the last three times the Patriots lost their season opener they went on to win the Super Bowl.  Yes, the Patriots under Bill Belichick have been great bets following a loss.  But the fact of the matter is that these aren't the same old Patriots.  I faded them by backing the Chiefs +9 Thursday, and I'll fade them again in Week 2.

The New England Patriots couldn't have possibly been more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.  That's going to provide some nice line value to fade them moving forward.

Tom Brady has been known to have great chemistry with his receivers, but that isn't the case now that he's without perhaps his favorite receiver ever in Julian Edelman.  Brady went just 16-of-36 passing for 267 yards without a touchdown in the 27-42 loss to the Chiefs.  Now Danny Amendola is questionable with a concussion after getting knocked out of the Chiefs game.

There were many signs in the preseason that the Patriots wouldn't be good defensively.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the Giants.  That carried over into the regular season as they gave up 42 points and 537  total yards to an underwhelming Chiefs offense.

Now that defense has to take on what has historically been one of the best offenses in the NFL over the past decade in the Saints.  And the Patriots have serious injury issues on defense, especially at LB where Dont'a Hightower is doubtful after suffering a knee injury to the Chiefs.  New England's defense completely imploded once he left the field as he is probably their most important player on that side of the ball.

Brees went 27-of-37 passing (73.0%) against a very good Vikings defense last week in a 19-29 road loss.  They trailed most the way so they couldn't utilize their talented backfield of Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara as much as they wanted to.  Look for them to really focus on getting the running game going against a Patriots defense that surrendered 185 rushing yards and 6.9 per carry to the Chiefs.

Sean Payton is 25-10 ATS off a road loss at the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 19-7 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Saints Sunday.

15* Texas/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +17

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Herman is already taking this offense to the next level as the Longhorns have averaged 48.5 points and 548.0 yards per game through their first two contests.  After getting upset 41-51 by a Maryland team that is better than most expected, the Longhorns took out their frustration with a 56-0 shutout victory of San Jose State last week.  I think that is more like the Texas team you can expect moving forward.

USC is in a massive letdown spot here after its 42-24 win over Stanford last week.  The Trojans had that game circled all offseason because the Cardinal had their number in previous years.  Now the betting public is back in love with them, quickly forgetting how poor the Trojans looked in their 49-31 win over Western Michigan the previous week as 28-point favorites.  I think USC is somewhere in between those two performances, but they certainly aren't more than two touchdowns better than Texas.

The 'game of the year' line that came out in June was USC -12.5 over Texas.  That's close to where it should be, though I think it should be around -10.  So we're getting some extra value here with Texas at +17 due to the Maryland loss and how dominant USC looked against Stanford.  We'll take that value and run with it this week.

I know QB Shane Buechele is injured, but I'm not concerned about it.  He is probable but may not play, but I don't think there's much of a difference between him and freshman Sam Ehlinger, who threw for 222 yards in place of Buechele against San Jose State last week.  He didn't take a sack as his mobility got him out of trouble, and he rushed for 48 yards on seven carries as well.  Ehlinger lost his father in 2013, and his maturity is through the roof, so he won't be phased in the national spotlight this weekend.

"From the day I met him, this is an extremely mature guy. You don't go through what he went through ... all of a sudden have to be the man of your household, and not mature very quickly," Herman said. "He's a bit of an old soul. I think that's what has allowed him to step into this role maybe a little bit easier than most."

Texas running back Chris Warren III said after the game that Ehlinger rarely seems rattled: "Sam's a baller. He'll come out and play regardless. I don't think he's the one to get nervous about this kind of stuff.

Now for the good stuff in regard to Texas' head coach.  Tom Herman was an underdog 6 times as Ohio State's offensive coordinator and five times as Houston's coach.  Not only did his teams go a perfect 11-0 ATS in the role of the dog, but they also went 11-0 SU, winning outright all 11 times.  Houston beat the likes of Oklahoma and Louisville last year, and Florida State the year before.  I'm not saying the Longhorns will win outright, but they will give the Trojans a run for their money.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* Clemson/Louisville ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +3.5

The Louisville Cardinals have had this game circled all offseason.  That's because the Cardinals have lost three straight heartbreakers to the Tigers over the last three years.  They lost by 6 on the road in 2014, by 3 at home in 2015, and by 6 on the road in 2017.  They actually outgained the Tigers in two of those three contests.  These players have not forgotten, and they feel like they have some unfinished business coming into this game.

I like the fact that Louisville hasn't exactly looked great in its first two games.  It won 35-28 as 25.5-point road favorites at Purdue, and 47-35 as 11.5-point favorites at North Carolina.  Those were two tricky road games, and you can excuse the Cardinals for just going through the motions knowing that they had this huge game against Clemson coming in Week 3.  Letdowns for Louisville has been a problem under Bobby Petrino, but that won't be the case here given the magnitude of this game.

Clemson won the National Championship and then opened the season 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS, so the betting public is all over this team.  But they opened as 8.5-point favorites against Auburn and were bet down to 6, so they got the cover in a 14-6 win last week against the closing line.  It was a shaky performance against an Auburn team that is way overrated.  And now after slugging it out with Auburn last week, that makes this is a very difficult situation for the Tigers having to try and chase around a speedy, athletic team like Louisville.

Lamar Jackson is the most electrifying player in college football.  He won the Heisman Trophy last year in large part because he had a huge game against this Clemson defense last year in a game the Cardinals arguably should have won.  Jackson led Louisville to 568 total yards against Clemson.  He threw for 295 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 162 yards and two scores.

Although the last two games for Louisville were reasonably close on the scoreboard, they weren't in the box score.  The Cardinals outgained Purdue by 180 yards and UNC by 304 yards.  Jackson accounted for 542 yards and 6 total touchdowns in that win over UNC, proving that he's once again in Heisman form coming into this one.

Dabo Swinney is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Petrino is 45-25 ATS at home in his career as a head coach.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992.  Take Louisville Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -133

The Milwaukee Brewers are only 3 games back of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  They are 2.5 games behind the Rockies in the wild card as well.  It's safe to say that they will be motivated to keep winning and chase that playoff spot.

The Brewers were fortunate here to get this series moved from Miami to Milwaukee due to Hurricane Irma.  Marlins players aren't focused on baseball right now, and it showed in their 2-10 loss to the Brewers yesterday.  The Marlins are just 1-11 in their last 12 games overall and packed it in a couple weeks ago.

Zach Davies is having a great season at 17-8 with 3.78 ERA in 30 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts.  Davies is 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in four career starts against the Marlins as well.

Adam Conley is 6-6 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 17 starts for the Marlins.  He has gone 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.729 WHIP in four career starts against the Brewers as well.  Roll with the Brewers Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +7

It's almost a given that Mississippi State is picked to finish last in the SEC West by basically every major publication heading into the season.  And it's also a given that Mississippi State doesn't finish last under Dan Mullen.  He always gets the most out of his players, and the job he's doing in Starksville is one of the most underrated in the country.

Mullen has now taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons.  The job he did the last two years getting them to 9-4 in 2015 and 6-7 in 2016 was impressive.  They had just seven starters back in '15 and only 10 starters back in '16.

But now Mullen has one of his more experienced teams in 2017 with 13 starters back.  QB Nick Fitzgerald did a great job of filling Dak Prescott's shoes once he took over as a sophomore last year.  He threw for 2,423 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 scores.  He is clearly one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC.

Mississippi State opened its season with a dominant 49-0 victory over Charleston Southern as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 27.5 points.  The Bulldogs outgained them 555 to 33, or by 522 total yards.  Holding any team to just 33 yards of offense is impressive, I don't care the opponent, and it's a sign that this defense should be one of the most improved in the land after giving up 31.8 points per game last year.  Mullen's defenses hadn't allowed more than 23.3 points per game in any season dating back to 2010.

I rolled Mississippi State last week, and they delivered in a 57-21 beat down as 10.5-point favorites at Louisiana Tech, covering by 25.5 points.  And the markets just haven't caught up with how good this team really is.  The Bulldogs are now catching a touchdown at home against the LSU Tigers.

The betting public is going to be on LSU in this one, but we're not falling for the trap.  This has been a very tight series over the last three years with all three meetings decided by 5 points or less.  Mississippi State won 34-29 as 7-point dogs at LSU in 2014, lost 19-21 as 3-point home dogs in 2015, and lost 20-23 as 13-point road dogs in 2016.  I could easily see this game decided by less than a TD once again with the Bulldogs having a legitimate shot to win outright.

Dan Mullen is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two straight non-conference games as the coach of Mississippi State having never lost.  Plays against road favorites (LSU) - excellent rushing team (230-plus RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/G), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -13.5

Oregon went 4-8 last season and Mark Helfrich was fired.  This was a Ducks team that had won at least 9 games in the regular season in eight straight seasons from 2008 through 2015.  So it was an aberration, and I expect them to get back to their winning ways under Willie Taggart.

Taggart has had success right away in his two previous stops at Western Kentucky and South Florida.  He guided the Bulls to an 11-2 record last season, and we've seen them be sluggish without him thus far in 2017.  It was a USF team that scored 30 or more points in 16 straight games dating back to 2015, so he is an offensive genius.

Now Taggart has inherited an Oregon team that returned 17 starters this season.  The offense was expected to be potent with QB Justin Herbert, RB Royce Freeman and the top two receivers returning, and that has proven to be the case thus far.  The Ducks are already averaging 59.5 points, 635 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play through two games against Southern Utah and Nebraska.

New defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt is a no-nonsense guy who was responsible for Colorado's turnaround on defense over the last two seasons.  He will make a big difference in getting the most out of this Oregon defense as the season progresses.

Many will see the final score being 42-35 last week against Nebraska and think it was a close game.  But it wasn't at all. Oregon rolled to a 42-14 halftime lead, then failed to show up in the second half and was outscored 21-0 after intermission.  The Ducks outgained the Cornhuskers 566 to 361, or by 205 yards.  The defense forced four turnovers and played well.

But that poor second half is going to work in our favor this week.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be, and you can bet that Taggart has let his players have it all week in practice for that poor finish.  They'll show up with a more determined, focused mindset as a result.

Wyoming gets a lot of hype because of QB Josh Allen, who could be the first QB taken in next year's NFL draft.  But this offense has really underwhelmed thus far.  They lost 3-24 at Iowa, amassing just 233 total yards while committing two turnovers.  They only managed 393 total yards in a 27-0 win over Gardner Webb as 38.5-point favorites.  Iowa even committed four turnovers and still won by 21 points, and Oregon is a better team than Iowa.

Taggart is 31-9 ATS in all road games as a head coach.  I think this line is lower than it should be because it's a road game and all the talk about altitude in Laramie, Wyoming.  But Oregon players are used to high altitude venues in Colorado and Utah and have done well their in the recent past.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 6.4 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Herbert, who is completing 78% of his passes with a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio thus far, will lead the Ducks to an easy win and cover in Wyoming this weekend.  Take Oregon Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +34.5

Willie Fritz put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  He took the job at Tulane knowing it would be a rebuilding process, and Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread option offense to Tulane in '16 but did not have the right personnel to run it.  Now he does.

Fritz welcomes back 16 starters this season.  He recruited his type of of QB to run the spread option in Jonathan Banks, who is a perfect fit.  The dress rehearsal went well in Week 1 in a 43-14 win over Grambling as 22-point favorites, covering the spread by 7 points.  They jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead before coasting to the finish.  Banks went 10-of-15 passing for 185 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 69 yards and a score on 16 carries.

I took Tulane as my free pick last Saturday and they covered with ease as 13.5-point dogs in a 21-23 loss at Navy.  That was even with Banks getting hurt in the second quarter and sitting out the rest of the game.  Sophomore Johnathan Brantley has a similar skill set, and he ripped off a 42-yard gain on an option the first time he kept the ball, setting up his first career touchdown one play later.

Brantley finished the game as the Green Wave's leading rusher with 73 yards on nine attempts.  He also completed 5-of-8 passes for 58 yards in the win.  Brantley is expected to get the start Saturday with Banks likely to be available off the bench.  Either way, I think Tulane has what it takes to stay within five touchdowns of Oklahoma.

This is an awful spot for Oklahoma.  The Sooners are coming off a shocking 31-16 upset victory at Ohio State on ABC last Saturday night.  Baker Mayfield planted the OU flag on the 50-yard line after the win, and later talked about how the Sooners responded to being disrespected.  After earning their respect, I am 100% certain they will fall flat on their faces this week against Tulane.  They won't bring the kind of focus it's going to take to put Tulane away by five touchdowns or more.  They'll be looking ahead to their Big 12 opener next week at Baylor as well.

Tulane is one of the few teams in the AAC that actually plays defense, too.  The Green Wave are only giving up 275 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through two games.  They held a potent Navy attack to just 326 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  This is a Navy team that rushes for over 300 yards almost every week, yet they held the Midshipmen to just 194 yards on 52 attempts, or an average of 3.7 yards per carry.  Stopping the run will be key late in this game as Oklahoma tries to sit on a lead.

Fritz is 11-2 ATS in the month of September in all games he has coached.  His system is so tough to prepare for with the spread option.  Oklahoma won't be focused all week after that huge win, and I expect their preparation to be lacking.  That will allow Tulane to catch them by surprise and score enough points to make this one more interesting than the oddsmakers are anticipating.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-110)

The Boston Red Sox have won five of their last seven, while the Tampa Bay Rays have lost five of their last seven.  The Red Sox are only 3 games up on the Yankees in the AL East and need wins, while the Rays are 5.5 games back in the wild card and basically done for now.  Boston should have no problem winning this game by two runs or more based on motivation and their massive edge on the mound.

Chris Sale is well on his way to winning the AL Cy Young award.  He has gone 16-7 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 29 starts this season, striking out 278 batters in 195 2/3 innings.  He has pitched well of late with a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts.  Sale is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against Tampa Bay, pitching 14 shutout innings while striking out 21 batters.

Matt Andriese is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 14.08 ERA and 2.477 WHIP in his last three starts.  Andriese does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 2-2 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He gave up 8 runs, 6 earned, in 1 2/3 innings in a 9-0 loss at Boston in his last start on September 9th.

Sale is 16-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The Red Sox are winning by 4.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 0-4 in Andriese's last four starts.  Tampa Bay is 0-5 in its last five vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line.

15* UMass/Temple CFB Friday No-Brainer on UMass +14.5

The UMass Minutemen returned 15 starters this season and should have been improved after their 2-10 disaster last year.  But instead they've opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS, making them the perfect 'buy low' candidate heading into their 4th game of the season.

It's not like UMass hasn't been competitive, either.  They lost in the closing minutes to Hawaii, and all three of their losses have come by 10 points or less.  They have only been outgained by 84 yards on the season as well.  I think they'll remain competitive today, especially against their 'big brother' in Temple as they are looking to pull the upset.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and are way overvalued here.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.  I'm not quite sure after those two performances how the Owls can be favored by more than two touchdowns here.

These teams played two years ago, and Temple only won 25-23 as 13.5-point favorites over UMass.  That was a much better Temple team than the 2017 edition.  I expect the Minutemen to give the Owls a run for their money once again here.  Take UMass Friday.

20* Texans/Bengals AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +6.5

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were both thoroughly embarrassed in Week 1.  The Texans lost 7-29 at home to the Jaguars, while the Bengals lost 0-20 at home to the Ravens.  Both teams will come back motivated in Week 2.

But I'm not sure why the Bengals are getting so much respect from the oddsmakers here.  This line opened at Bengals -3, which is about where it should be, and has been bet all the way up to Bengals -6.5 as of this writing.  I think the time is now to pounce and take the Texans at a great value in a game that is likely to come down to the wire.

The Texans pretty much gave away the game to the Jaguars by committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  Their defense played well in limiting the Jaguars to 280 total yards, and this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL again after leading the league in total defense last year.

Tom Savage really sabotaged the team in the first half.  Bill O'Brien made the switch to Deshaun Watson at halftime, and they played the Jaguars to a 10-7 game after intermission.  Watson played well, going 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also rushing for 16 yards on two carries.

It looks as though Watson is going to get the nod Thursday against the Bengals, which I think is an upgrade for the Texans.  The offensive line got manhandled by a very underrated front seven for Jacksonville, and Watson's mobility behind this shaky O-line will help mask the problems.  He's not afraid of the big stage, so I'm far from worried about this being his first NFL road game.  This guy has the 'It' factor.

I was way down on the Bengals coming into the season, and they did nothing Week 1 to change my opinion.  They committed five turnovers and managed just 221 total yards in their ugly 20-0 loss to the Ravens.  They are missing some key players on defense in safety Shawn Williams, DE Michael Johnson and LB Vontaze Burfict that will have their D exposed in the short term.

The Texans have clearly had the Bengals' number.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They have won each of their last three trips to Cincinnati outright as dogs of 10, 4 and 2.5 points.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the upset once again here.

The Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* New Mexico/Boise State ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 59

The Boise State Broncos are likely to be without starter Brett Rypien today after he suffered a concussion against Washington State last week.  They fell apart after he went out and Kansas reject Montell Cozart took over for him.  Cozart had a costly pick-6 late in that game which aided in Boise blowing a 21-point lead, eventually losing 44-47 in triple-overtime.

Boise State has played two very strong offensive teams up to this point, and the defense has played tremendously.  In games against Troy and Washington State, the Broncos' D has only allowed a total of 20 points at the end of regulation.  The problem is the offense has given more points (21) than the defense has.  The offense has allowed two pick 6's and a fumble return for a TD.

So it's clear that the Broncos have an elite defense, and they will shut down this New Mexico offense.  The Lobos primarily run the football, and the Broncos have only allowed 49 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry through their first two contests.  That makes this an excellent matchup for them.

With Cozart likely to be running the offense, look for the Broncos to go with a more conservative, ground-based attack.  And New Mexico has held its own against the run this season, too.  It is allowing just 53 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry through its first two contests.  I think points will be hard to come by in this one, which is why I'm on the UNDER 59 here.

Boise State is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Brian Harsin is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of the Broncos.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-115)

The St. Louis Cardinals needs wins and fast.  They are three games behind the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central with just 17 games remaining.  After losing to the Reds yesterday, I expect them to bounce back today and win by two runs or more to cover this run line.

Luke Weaver has done a remarkable job since joining the rotation over the past month.  He is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six starts, 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in his three home starts, and 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  He has struck out 49 batters in 36 2/3 innings this year.

Amir Garrett just hasn't been able to keep his spot in the rotation for the Reds this year due to poor performance.  He is 3-7 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  They are giving him one last chance here down the stretch, and I don't expect it to go much better for him.

The Reds are 0-7 in Garrett's last seven starts.  Cincinnati is 0-6 in Garrett's last six road starts.  The Reds are 20-42 in their last 62 road games.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.  St. Louis is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)

The Boston Red Sox are getting closer to clinching the AL East at 4 games up on the New York Yankees for first place.  They aren't going to be letting up with 18 games to go until that task is done.  After rolling the A's 11-1 yesterday, look for a similar performance tonight.

Doug Fister has been a revelation.  He is probably the sole reason they are in first place right now.  Fister has gone 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts in place of David Price.  He has gone 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts, shutting down Toronto, New York and Baltimore.

Fister also owns the A's, going 8-7 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.  He is 3-1 with a 0.98 ERA in his last four starts against Oakland, giving up just 3 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings.

The A's have been a terrible road team at 21-48 (-20.9 units) on the season.  Jharel Cotton won't save them today.  He is 7-10 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He has given up 11 earned runs and 6 homers over 9 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Oakland is 2-12 after having won four of its last five games this season.  The A's are losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 26-10 in their last 36 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Boston is 7-0 in its last seven Wednesday games.  The A's are 16-43 in the last 59 meetings, including 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Boston.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+135)

The St. Louis Cardinals have battled their way to within 2 games of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  They need every win they can get, and will certainly be motivated for one in Game 1 of this series with the Cincinnati Reds tonight.

Lance Lynn has been the ace in St. Louis this season.  He has gone 10-7 with a 2.94 ERA in 29 starts, 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 home starts. and 0-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts.  Lynn simply owns the Reds, going 10-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.  He is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his last four starts against Cincinnati, giving up only 3 earned runs in 23 innings.

Robert Stephenson is 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in seven starts this year.  He has already walked 26 batters in 38 innings, and that lack of control is going to catch up with him in the majors.  Stephenson faced the Cardinals once before, giving up 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 5-12 loss for an 11.25 ERA.

The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  St. Louis is 5-0 in its last five games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Reds are 19-41 in their last 60 road games.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in Lynn's last eight home starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Reds are 28-60 in their last 88 meetings in St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3.5

The Chargers get a breathe of fresh air in 2017 with their move to Los Angeles.  It will help them get over their 5-11 season from 2016 which saw lose more starts due to injury than any other team in the NFL.  Yet this easily could have been a .500 or better team when you look at how they fared in close games.

All 11 of San Diego's losses last season came by 12 points or less, including nine by 8 points or fewer.  So they were competitive in every game they played essentially.  Philip Rivers got the most out of the talent he had on hand, but he also made some critical mistakes late in games.  Anything that could go wrong did last year.

I think the Chargers are putting a lot into this season knowing that Rivers only has a few years left.  He should get a healthy season from Keenan Allen after he missed most of the last two years with injuries.  They selected Mike Williams seventh overall and he should come in and contribute in a big way right away.  Melvin Gordon proved he could handle the workload by rushing for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns before missing basically the last four games due ton injury.

The Chargers have one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  They gave up 347 yards per game and 5.6 per play last season, which was right around league average.  But they were much better after rookie Joey Bosa ended his holdout.  Bosa tied for the NFL lead with 11 tackles for loss, plus team-highs in sacks (10.5) and QB hits (21).  Melvin Inrgam remains one of the better DE's in the game.

The Denver Broncos have a great defense once again, but they also have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL.  They desperately wanted Paxton Lynch to win the job in the preseason, but he was awful, so they'll be sticking with Trevor Siemian, who wasn't much better.  He threw 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions last year for an offense that managed just 20.8 points per game.

The Chargers are 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 September games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.  The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+125)

The Milwaukee Brewers just came up with their biggest series sweep of the season.  They took all three games from the Cubs in Chicago over the weekend.  They are now just two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central race, so they aren't about to let up today.

Now they take on a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is clearly tanking, going 0-5 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 5 runs in the five losses.  Steven Brault, who is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his lone start this season, won't be able to stop the bleeding for them.

I've been very impressed with Brandon Woodruff, who is 1-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in four starts this season.  He should be able to shut down this weak Pittsburgh lineup.  Brault has never beaten the Brewers, going 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in three career starts against them.

The Pirates are 1-10 in their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 8-26 in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 8-2 in its last 10 home games.  The Pirates are 24-67 in the last 91 meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Monday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFL Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high on this total in the Seahawks/Packers game in Week 1.  I fully expect more a defensive battle than this whopping 51-point total would indicate.  I think the way these two teams finished the season has this total inflated.

This is especially true for the Packers, who closes last season on a 7-0 run to the OVER.  Their defense was extremely banged up down the stretch, and Aaron Rodgers did a great job winning shootouts week after week.  Now that is fresh in the public's mind, but the fact of the matter is the Packers will be much better defensively now that they are healthy to open 2017.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

The Seahawks closed last season on a 3-1 run to the over, but they also had key injuries to Earl Thomas and other, and they lost 20-36 to the Falcons in the playoffs.  They will get back to being one of the best defensive teams in the NFL now, especially with the addition of Sheldon Richardson via trade.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

I think the recent head-to-head history in this series shows that there is value with the UNDER.  The Seahawks and Packers have combined for 48, 44 and 44 points at the end of regulation in their last three meetings.  Neither team has been able to get to 400 yards of offense in any of the last five meetings.  Seattle is 30-12 to the UNDER in its last 42 September road games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -129

The Minnesota Twins lead the Kansas City Royals by 3.5 games for the final wild card spot.  This is essentially a must-win for the Royals if they want to stay alive, and I think they get the job done here Sunday given their massive edge on the mound.

Jason Vargas is 14-10 with a 4.23 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 7-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 home starts.  Vargas owns the Twins, going 7-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 17 career starts against them.  He has been untouchable in recent starts against them, going 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his last three starts while giving up 1 earned run in 18 innings.

Bartolo Colon is 6-11 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has posted a 4.82 ERA in 29 career starts against Kansas City.  I think the Royals touch him up today.

The Twins are 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Royals are 13-3 in Vargas' last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Kansas City is 4-0 in Vargas' last four starts vs. Minnesota, and 4-0 in his last four home starts against the Twins.  Roll with the Royals Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team on the rise.  Yes, they went just 3-13 last year, but they were much better than that record would indicate.  They went 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  So they were way more competitive last season, and they were much closer to an 8-8 team than a 3-13 one.

This is a Jaguars defense that is going to be one of the best in the NFL this season.  They have consistently drafted talent on defense over the last few seasons, and it started showing signs of being a great unit in the second half last year.  Now they are a year older and more experienced on that side of the ball.  This is a defense that will keep them in most ball games.

The defense added CB A.J. Bouye, DE Calais Campbell and SS Barry Church, three projected starters that will only add to a talented group that includes recent first-round draft picks Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.  The offense added RB Leonard Fournette and LT Cam Robinson in the first round rounds of the draft this year, and both are expected to start Week 1.

The Houston Texans aren't a team that can be trusted laying this kind of number.  They went 9-7 last year, but all nine of their wins came by single-digits, including eight by a touchdown or less.  They got terrible QB play last year and that's unlikely to change in 2017.  They drafted Deshaun Watson as their QB of the future, but it's going to be Tom Savage taking the snaps in Week 1.

The Jaguars played the Texans tough in both meetings last year, losing 21-24 at home and 20-21 on the road.  I think this one is likely to go down to the wire as well, and they'll be extra motivated to end a 6-game losing streak to the Texans overall in this series.

Jacksonville was -16 in turnover differential last year.  That tends to even itself out over time, and I expect head coach Doug Marrone to emphasize taking care of the football in 2017.  It also sets the Jaguars up for a nice system play for Week 1.

Plays on any team (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are a team on the rise.  They went 9-7 last season and were competitive in every game but one. Six of their seven losses came by single-digits.  They won four of their final five games last year to really carry over some momentum into 2017.

Marcus Mariota took a big step forward last year with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions.  The running game was one of the best in the NFL at 137 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the two-headed attack of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  The defense was just average, but the Titans made several moves on that side of the ball in the offseason that will have them in the top half of the league this year.

The Oakland Raiders were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year.  Give them credit for going 12-4 in the regular season, but they easily could have been 8-8 or worse.  The Raiders went a ridiculous 9-2 in games decided by 8 points or less.  That's not going to happen again.

That record in close games covered up a lot of problems for this team, especially defensively.  The Raiders gave up 24.2 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and it's not going to be any better in 2017 as they lost a lot of players on that side of the ball.

This is a revenge game for the Titans, who lost 10-17 at home to the Raiders last year.  They rushed for 181 yards in the loss, but committed three turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Marcus Mariota will be motivated to redeem himself after throwing two picks in that loss.

Tennessee is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in the series.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

The Atlanta Falcons came out of nowhere to go 11-5 during the regular season.  They proceeded to blow out both the Seahawks and Packers before stomping the Patriots 28-3 late in the third quarter of the Super Bowl.  That's where it fell apart as they actually blew that lead and lost in overtime.

It's going to be extremely difficult for the Falcons to get over that loss.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser.  Since 2000, only two teams that lost the Super Bowl actually finished with a better record the next season.  We saw the Panthers fall flat last year after losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl the previous season, and I think the same fate will follow the Falcons.

But the Falcons enter 2017 way overvalued now after that great season.  They are now being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Chicago Bears.  They still have plenty of talent, especially offensively, but they did lose coordinator Kyle Shanahan this offseason, and now have a first-time NFL coordinator in Steve Sarkisian.  The defense still has plenty of holes as well after allowing 25.3 points per game 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play last year.

Injuries really gave the Bears no chance of having a good season last year during their 3-13 campaign.  But they enter 2017 a lot healthier and should be improved, plus they're flying under the radar, which provides great value against the betting lines.

They should get better QB play after signing Mike Glennon in the offseason.  They have a special young back in Jordan Howard, who rushed for 1,313 yards last year.  They also added some WR talent in Kendall Wright from Tennessee and Markus Wheaton from Pittsburgh, which should help make up for the losses of Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith.  Kevin White is now healthy and ready to show off the talent that made him a first-round pick a couple years back.

John Fox is a defensive guy, and I think he will have the Bears surprising on this side of the ball in 2017 after a mediocre season last year with a defense that gave up 347 yards per game and 5.7 per play, which was right around league average.  They added CB Prince Amukamara, CB Marcus Cooper and S Quintin Demps to shore up their secondary, and all three are expected to start.

The Bears went 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS at home last year.  They only lost twice by more than a touchdown.  I think they can keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset, especially against a Falcons team that is overvalued and still reeling from their Super Bowl loss.

The Bears were -20 in turnover differential last year, tied for last in the NFL.  These teams are prime bounce-back candidates and fit into a system that I love this week.  Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1.5

The Arizona Cardinals won 10 games in 2013, 11 games in 2014 and 13 games in 2015 in Bruce Arians' first three seasons on the job.  Expectations were hight last year, but they went 7-8-1 to fall well short of them.  However, there's no question they were much better than their record would indicate.
 
They actually led the NFL in yardage differential, gaining 366.8 yards per game offensively while giving up only 305.2 yards per game defensively, outgaining teams by 61.6 yards per game.  To compare, the Patriots were the second-best team in this department last year at +59.9 and the Falcons (+44.6) were fourth, so they were in some good company.

Five of Arizona's eight losses last season came by a touchdown or less, and they tied with the Seahawks in a game they dominated but should have won.  The Cardinals are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.  They will have better luck in the health department and win more of their close games.

Arizona finished second in the NFL in total defense last season and led the league with 44 sacks.  The tandem of Chandler Jones and Markus Golden combined for 23.5 of those sacks, and both are back to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  They also have one of the best secondary's in the league.

Carson Palmer is reportedly in the best shape of his career, and he has David Johnson to lean on, who had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns last year.  Larry Fitzgerald is still productive, and getting a healthy John Brown back at receiver should make their offense even more explosive.

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.  It's not going to happen again.

I fully expect the Cardinals to have a winning record this season, and Stafford is 5-46 in his career against teams that finish the season with a winning record.  The Lions have a ton of injury issues already heading into Week 1.  OT Taylor Decker, DE Kerry Hyder, DE Brandon Copeland, DE Armonty Bryant and DT Khyri Thornton are all out.  They are missing most of their defensive line, which is bad news for trying to stop a back the caliber of David Johnson.

The Cardinals are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lions, winning seven of those eight meetings by 7 points or more, and outscoring them by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

15* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -114

The Seattle Mariners picked up a big win yesterday over the Angels.  They are 4 games back in the wild card, and the Angels are a team that they are chasing.  Look for them to get the job done again here in Game 2 Saturday night.

Andrew Albers has held his own this season, going 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA in four starts, including 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two home starts.  Andrew Heaney has been rocked mostly, going 1-1 with a 6.98 ERA in four starts, including 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in two road starts.

The Angels are 1-5 in Heaney's last six starts.  Los Angeles is 0-6 in its last six vs. a left-handed starter.  The Mariners are 6-0 in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on New Mexico State +7.5

I was very impressed with New Mexico State's Week 1 effort at Pac-12 foe Arizona State.  The Aggies arguably outplayed the Sun Devils in their 31-37 loss at 26-point road dogs.  They outgained them 549 to 400, or by 149 total yards, so it was no fluke that they nearly pulled off the upset.

This is a New Mexico State team that is one of the most experienced in the Sun Belt as they returned 20 starters.  They have nine back on defense, and perhaps the most impressive part about the ASU game is that they held them to just 79 rushing yards on 40 carries, or an average of 2.0 per carry.

That's going to be huge going up against a New Mexico team that relies exclusively on the run to move the football.  The Lobos rushed for 350 yards per game last year and rushed for 259 in their 38-14 opening win over Abilene Christian as 34-point favorites, failing to cover the number by 10 points.

I have the Lobos pegged as a team that will regress big-time following their surprising 9-4 campaign last year.  They go from having 15 starters back last season to just 10 starters returning in 2017.  Their defense is a mess with only three starters back.  They lose eight of their top nine tacklers on D, and this explosive NMSU offense that put up 549 yards against ASU should do whatever they want to against this New Mexico D.

New Mexico State is 3-0 ATS against New Mexico the last three years.  They won 32-31 as 11-point home dogs in 2016, lost 38-29 as 10.5-point road dogs in 2015, and lost 35-38 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.  Now this is the first time in a long time that I actually think NMSU has the better team in this in-state rivalry, and I think that will show on the football field Saturday as they likely win outright.  Getting 7.5 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is 5-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached.  The Lobos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State -8

It's almost a given that Mississippi State is picked to finish last in the SEC West by basically every major publication heading into the season.  And it's also a given that Mississippi State doesn't finish last under Dan Mullen.  He always gets the most out of his players, and the job he's doing in Starksville is one of the most underrated in the country.

Mullen has now taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons.  The job he did the last two years getting them to 9-4 in 2015 and 6-7 in 2016 was impressive.  They had just seven starters back in '15 and only 10 starters back in '16.

But now Mullen has one of his more experienced teams in 2017 with 13 starters back.  QB Nick Fitzgerald did a great job of filling Dak Prescott's shoes once he took over as a sophomore last year.  He threw for 2,423 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 scores.  He is clearly one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC.

Mississippi State opened its season with a dominant 49-0 victory over Charleston Southern as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 27.5 points.  The Bulldogs outgained them 555 to 33, or by 522 total yards.  Holding any team to just 33 yards of offense is impressive, I don't care the opponent, and it's a sign that this defense should be one of the most improved in the land after giving up 31.8 points per game last year.  Mullen's defenses hadn't allowed more than 23.3 points per game in any season dating back to 2010.

Louisiana Tech went 9-5 last year and finished 2nd in Conference USA.  Skip Holtz is doing a fine job down in Ruston, but he has his hands full in 2017.  Only 11 starters return and they lose all of their top playmakers on offense, and each of their top three tacklers on defense.

The losses on offense are enormous.  QB Ryan Higgins is gone after throwing for 4,617 yards with 41 touchdowns against eight interceptions.  Two receivers who combined for 3,300-plus yards are gone to the NFL in Trent Taylor (136 receptions, 1,803 yards, 12 TD) and Carlos Henderson (82, 1,535, 19 TD).  You just don't replace that type of production.

LA Tech had a cake opponent in Week 1 and beat Northwestern State 52-24 as 39.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 11.5 points.  But this was a much closer game than the final score.  This game was tied 28-28 with one minute left in the 3rd quarter before LA Tech scored 28 points in the final 16 minutes to pull away.  They only outgained NW State by 108 total yards despite that frantic finish.

LA Tech even had two non-offensive TD's in that game with a 66-yard punt return and a 26-yard fumble scoop and score.  The new QB is J'Mar Smith, and he wasn't very sharp as he completed just 18-of-35 (51.4%) of his passes in the win.  He's going to have to be way more efficient if LA Tech has any shot against Mississippi State, and I don't believe he will be.

Mississippi State is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* South Carolina/Missouri SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri -2.5

The Missouri Tigers won the SEC East in 2013 and '14 before going 5-7 and then 4-8 the past two seasons, respectively.  I think their talent level is somewhere in between those results, and they are prime bounce back candidates in 2017.

Barry Odom stepped into a rough situation in his first season last year with just 10 returning starters.  They had key injuries on defense that resulted in them going from giving up 16.2 points per game in '15 to 31.5 points per game in '16.  This defense is likely to be improved, especially with Odom colling the shots as their former defensive coordinator.

As much as the Tigers regressed on defense last year, their offense took an even bigger step forward from 13.6 points per game and 281 yards per game in '15 to 31.4 points per game and 501 yards per game in '16.  This offense will be one of the best in the country in 2017 with 10 returning starters after having just three starters back on offense last year.  QB Drew Lock is an elite talent who has all five starting offensive linemen back.

This offense had arguably the most impressive performance of any team in Week 1, racking up 72 points and 815 total yards against Missouri State.  They rushed for 294 yards and passed for 521 to show off their balance.  I think they keep rolling on that side of the ball against South Carolina today.

South Carolina was fortunate to make a bowl game last year.  They went 6-7 and all six of their wins came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  That included a 6-point home win over UMass, a 5-point home win over East Carolina and a 13-point home win over Western Carolina.  Simply put, they weren't that good.

But the Gamecocks pulled off a big upset in Week 1 with a 35-28 win as 8-point dogs over NC State.  Now they are getting too much love heading into Week 2.  But they were dominated in the box score in that game and should have lost.  NC State actually outgained South Carolina 504 to 246, or by 258 total yards.  You won't find many teams that win games when they get outgained by that kind of margin.

The home team has won both meetings over the last two seasons.  Missouri won 24-10 at home in 2016, while South Carolina won 31-21 at home last year.  But the Tigers actually outgained the Gamecocks 465 to 428 in that game last year, so they showed what their offense could do against that defense.  Don't be surprised to see the Tigers rack up 600-plus yards in this one.  The Tigers are 28-6 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rutgers -5

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

That came to fruition in Week 1 as I backed Rutgers as +28 dogs to Washington, and they gave the Huskies all they wanted in a 14-30 defeat.  They held that explosive Washington offense to just 368 total yards and were only outgained by 59 yards in that contest.    Bolin threw two costly picks in his own territory that really decided the game, but overall he was efficient completing 24-of-35 passes in the loss.

Eastern Michigan was a nice story last year.  After going 7-41 in their previous four seasons, including 3-29 in MAC play, the Eagles managed to make a bowl game and finish 7-5 on the season.  But five of their seven wins came by a touchdown or less, and the only exceptions were Charlotte and Mississippi Valley State.

EMU opened with a 24-7 win over that terrible Charlotte team that is one of the worst in the FBS.  Now the Eagles take a big step up in class here against a Big Ten opponent that will have more talent than them at almost every position.  The Eagles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for what they did last year as only 5-point dogs in this true road game.

The Eagles are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a home win.  The Eagles are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Rutgers will be hungry to taste victory following 10 consecutive losses dating back to  a 37-28 home win over New Mexico in their 3rd game last season.  That was a New Mexico team that went 9-4 last year.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Fresno State +44

The Fresno State Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and aren't getting any love heading into 2017.  These are the types of teams I like backing early, especially when you consider how much potential the Bulldogs have.  They went 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, so they weren't nearly as bad as their record.

New head coach Jeff Tedford stepped into a good situation.  He inherits 16 returning starters and will get the most out of them.  This is a guy that had a lot of success at California, where he went 82-57 in 11 seasons there.  He is now re-energized and ready to tackle this new challenge.

Teford is an offensive guru, and he has 10 returning starters to work with on that side of the ball.  This offense had an impressive dress rehearsal against Incarnate Word.  They won 66-0 as 35-point favorites to cover the number by 31 points.  The offense racked up 613 total yards, while the defense held them to 148 yards, outgaining them by 465 yards for the game.

Nick Saban rarely covers these big numbers in non-conference games.  He has a propensity to take his starters out as early as possibly to save them.  I think that will especially be the case after the defense lost a couple key linebackers to injury in the 24-7 win over Florida State last week.  That also makes this a letdown spot for the Crimson Tide after that huge win over the Seminoles.

Alabama wasn't as dominant as that 24-7 final would indicate.  It only outgained FSU 269 to 250, but the difference was three turnovers by the Seminoles.  The offense struggled in averaging just 4.5 yards per play.  Alabama doesn't have the type of explosive offense that is built to cover 44-point spreads.  And Fresno State does have the talent on offense to put up a score or two, which will help them stay within this massive number.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (FRESNO ST) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -7

I just believe that that the Michigan State Spartans were massively underrated heading into 2017 after their shocking 3-9 disaster last season.  Mark Dantonio does his best work with his back against the wall, and he'll have the Spartans exceeding expectations now this year.

The Spartans got off to a great start in Week 1 with a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green as 17-point favorites.  They even lost the turnover battle three to one and still won by 25, outgaining the Falcons 465 to 212 in the process.  It was a dominant effort and one that has me excited about this team moving forward.

Western Michigan is a team I'm way down on.  They lost head coach PJ Fleck to Minnesota, and their all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver.  They only have 12 starters back this year and are way overvalued after going 13-1 last season.

But Western Michigan had a good showing in Week 1, only losing 31-49 at USC as 28-point dogs to cover the spread.  However, I think that was a bad spot for USC as they were looking ahead to their big showdown with Stanford this week.  WMU gave a big effort, while USC simply showed up.

Now this is a tall task for WMU to go on the road for a second straight week to take on another big Power 5 program like Michigan State.  And the Broncos are getting too much line respect for their effort against USC as they are currently being tabbed as only 7-point underdogs.  I look for the Spartans to roll them here as they have better talent all over the field, and they aren't going to be overlooking them because they have a chip on their shoulder after last year.

Michigan State is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing 225 or fewer total yards in its previous game.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +16.5

Lance Leipold took over a rebuilding team when he got to Buffalo two years ago.  They had only 10 starters back in 2015 and went 5-7, and they had only 11 starters back last year and went 2-10.  Now Leipold enters his 3rd season, which is where head coaches usually make their biggest imprint on the program.  Leipold has his most experienced team yet with 14 returning starters, and almost all of the players playing significant minutes will be his recruits now.

Quarterback Tyree Jackson got his feet wet as a freshman last year and held his own.  He threw for 1,772 yards with nine touchdowns and nine picks, while also rushing for 399 yards and five scores.  He'll be much better as a sophomore behind an offensive line that returns four starters and 68 career starts.

The defense should be way better with eight starters and each of the top six tacklers back.  That was on display in Week 1 as Buffalo gave Minnesota all it wanted in a 7-17 road loss as 21.5-point dogs.  They held a potent Minnesota rushing attack to just 169 yards on 51 carries (3.3/carry).  That's key because they're now up against the triple-option attack of Army.

Army is way overvalued off a stunning 8-5 season last year, especially the way that they finished.  They upset Navy for their first win in 14 tries in the series, then beat North Texas in their bowl game.  Now they opened 2017 up with a 64-6 win over FCS foe Fordham, and the love for the Black Knights is just too much right now.  They shouldn't be laying 16.5 points to Buffalo.

These teams matched up last year with Buffalo actually pulling off the 23-20 upset as 13-point home dogs.  I realize Army will want revenge, but they can still get it without covering the spread.  I expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this one, which clearly favors the big road dog.  Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  Take Buffalo Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/South Alabama ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma State -28

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

I backed Oklahoma State as 17.5-point favorites over Tulsa in Week 1, and they delivered with a 59-24 victory.  That offense was in midseason form, racking up 640 total yards on the Golden Hurricane.  They held Tulsa's potent offense attack to just 4.4 yards per play in the win, while averaging 10.2 yards per play on offense.

Now they're up against an even worse team in South Alabama, which is no more than a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team.  The Jaguars did cover as 21.5-point dogs in a 27-47 loss at Ole Miss in Week 1, which is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But that game wasn't nearly that close.

Ole Miss actually led South Alabama 47-13 with nine minutes left in the 4th quarter.  But the Jaguars tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final nine minutes to get the back door cover.  So Ole Miss was up 34 on them, and that's a Rebels team that had all kinds of offseason issues and distractions with the firing of Hugh Freeze.  Oklahoma State is on a different level than Ole Miss.

South Alabama allowed 28-of-35 passing for 429 yards to Ole Miss quarterbacks.  So you can just imagine the kind of night that Rudolph, Washington and company are going to have against this Jaguars defense.  They should hang 50-plus on them, which will be enough to cover this spread.

Oklahoma State is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games after scoring 50 or more points in its previous game.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in after game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take these combined 14-0 systems straight to the bank tonight.  Bet Oklahoma State Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Mets OVER 9

Both the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds have been dead nut OVER teams this season.  The Mets are 79-49 to the OVER while the Reds are 75-60 to the OVER.  Oddsmakers haven't set this total high enough at just 9 runs when you consider how poor the starting pitchers are in this one.

Seth Lugo has gone 5-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is backed by a shoddy bullpen that has posted a 4.48 ERA and 1.457 WHIP this season.

Amir Garrett is a nice young talent, but he hasn't been able to translate it to the big league level this season.  He has gone 3-6 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 12 starts.  He'll be making his first start since June 20th.  That means the bullpen will come in early, and this is a 'pen that has a 5.15 ERA and 1.510 WHIP in road games this year.

The OVER is 6-1 in Garret's last seven starts.  The OVER is 5-1 in Lugo's last six starts.  The OVER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Chiefs/Pats 2017 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City +9

The Kansas City Chiefs just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Andy Reid is doing a tremendous job here just as he did in Philadelphia.  The Chiefs have won at least 9 games in all four of Reid's seasons, and they've gone 43-21 in the regular season during that stretch.

The New England Patriots couldn't possibly be more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.

Now the Patriots open as whopping 9-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 1.  That's despite the fact that they are missing their best receiver in Julian Edelman, who is out for the season after tearing his ACL in the preseason.  Tom Brady had better chemistry with Edelman than perhaps any other receiver in his career, so that's a big blow.

The Chiefs went 6-2 on the road last season.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six road games overall.  They only lost 20-27 in New England in the 2015-16 playoffs.  They handed the Patriots one of their worst losses of the Belichick era with a 41-14 blowout at home in 2014 as well.  They have outgained the Patriots 821-630 in their last two meetings.

The Patriots did not fare well defensively in the preseason.  They have a lot of issues on that side of the ball.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the New York Giants.  I know preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is concerning nonetheless.

The Chiefs are the perfect team to back as a big underdog.  They have only lost 5 times by 10-plus points in 67 games under Reid.  They don't beat themselves with turnovers, and they do just enough to keep games close.  I think they'll easily stay within a touchdown of the Patriots and possibly pull off the stunner in Week 1.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

15* Yankees/Orioles AL East Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -107

The Baltimore Orioles have made a serious push to make the playoffs over the past two weeks.  They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall to pull within one game of the Minnesota Twins for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also 3.5 games back of the Yankees for the top spot.

Now Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Orioles looking to build on his strong second half.  Gausman has gone 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star Break.  He also has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA in his career against the Yankees.  The Orioles have won 11 straight home series against the Yankees, and they are 35-17 in their last 52 home meetings.

Sonny Gray hasn't had much success on the road this season, going 1-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in nine starts.  His teams have gone 1-8 in his nine road starts this year.  Gray is 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles as well.

Gray is 1-12 (-11.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 5-0 in Gausman's last five starts vs. AL East opponents.  Baltimore is 16-7 in Gausman's last 23 home starts.  The Orioles are 7-0 in Gausman's last seven home starts vs. New York.  Take the Orioles Thursday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -123

The Detroit Tigers are a mess right now.  They have traded away many of their best players and they clearly aren't worried about winning games.  They are 0-5 in their last five games while scoring a combined 11 runs in the process, or an average of 2.2 per game.

Kansas City is still very much alive for a wild card spot at 69-69 on the season.  They are 2.5 games back of the Twins for the final spot.  Now they have a huge advantage on the mound today over the Tigers.

Jason Vargas is 14-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 26 starts this season.  He'll be opposite Anibal Sanchez, who is 3-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 11 starts.  Sanchez has really been rocked of late, going 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.207 WHIP in his last three starts.

Plays against underdogs with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), a cold starting pitcher with an ERA of 7.00 or higher in his last three starts are 82-26 (75.9%, +44.6 units) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

15* Tennessee/GA Tech ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3

Expectations were high in Tennessee last year.  Many expected them to win the SEC East.  They won their key game against Florida, but were upset by South Carolina and Vanderbilt to really blow it down the stretch.  Now everyone is off the Tennessee bandwagon, and I think there is value with them in the early going because of it, especially as only 3-point favorites here against Georgia Tech.

Butch Jones had guided the Vols to back-to-back 9-4 seasons.  That is great at most players, but the fans want more, and Jones isn't shying away from it.  He has consistently delivered Top 10 recruiting classes over the past few seasons, so the talent is clearly there.

Now Tennessee actually has plenty of talent and experience back.  They have 14 starters back, and that doesn't even include all of the players that saw significant minutes on defense last year due to injuries.  This is a defense that returns eight of the top nine tacklers from a year ago and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Offensively, replacing QB Josh Dobbs will be tough, but he didn't meet expectations last year.  Jarrett Guarantanta is the 9th best QB recruit in the country, and Quinten Dormandy is the 19th, so Jones has some options here even if the competition goes into Week 1.  The offensive line returns four of five starters and 111 career starts and should be one of the best units in the SEC.

Georgia Tech had a surprising 9-4 season last year after going just 3-9 in 2015.  But that was a bit of a mirage.  The Yellow Jackets went 4-4 in ACC play despite getting outgained by 85.5 yards per game against conference opponents.  They went 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less.  They only gained 387 yards per game offensively while giving up 402 per game defensively.  Those aren't numbers you normally see from a 9-4 team.

The Yellow Jackets do return 16 starters this year and will be good, but they lose their best player in QB Justin Thomas. He was the best passing quarterback that Paul Johnson has ever had running the triple-option.  Now the job goes to Matthew Jordan, who only completed 33.3 percent of his passes in limited action last year.  He also only averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

Plays against any team (GEORGIA TECH) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS since 1992. The Vols have had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which is a huge advantage for facing a team like Georgia Tech.  Take Tennessee Monday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -125

The Baltimore Orioles are only 1.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the 2nd wild card spot.  They are only 3.5 games behind the Yankees for the 1st wild card.  That makes this a huge series for them, and I expect them to come up big in Game 1 against the Yankees today.

Dylan Bundy, who is 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA on the season, is coming off his best month as a starter.  He went 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in the five August starts.  He threw a one-hitter for his first career shutout in his last start against the Mariners.  He set a career high with 12 strikeouts in the win.

Jordan Montgomery is 7-7 with a 4.15 ERA in 24 starts, and 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 12 road starts for the Yankees.  He has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in his last two starts.  Bundy is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees.

The Yankees are in a letdown spot here after taking two of three against the rival Boston Red Sox, including Game 3 on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  They had to travel to Baltimore overnight and now have to play a day game today at 2:00 EST.

The Yankees are 1-8 in Montgomery's last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.  Baltimore is 7-0 in its last seven Monday games.  The Orioles are 7-0 in Bundy's last seven starts.  Bet the Orioles Monday.

20* Texas A&M/UCLA FOX Sunday No-Brainer on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins are one of my favorite bounce-back candidates of 2017.  I think they can make a serious run in the Pac-12.  They had won 9, 10, 10 and 8 games in Jim Mora's first four seasons before bottoming out at 4-8 last year.  Now they are flying under the radar heading into 2017.

UCLA had a lot go wrong last year.  They opened 3-3 and were three plays away from being 6-0.  Then star QB Josh Rosen got hurt and their season spiraled out of control.  They finished 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, which was simply bad luck.

But now Rosen is back healthy and he's among 15 returning starters, including nine on offense.  This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country after scoring just 24.9 points per game last year.  Mora has done a tremendous job in recruiting and that talent will get them back to 8-plus wins this season.

Texas A&M only had 12 starters back this season.  The Aggies lose QB Trevor Knight and four of their top five receivers from last year.  The defense loses No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, who were arguably the top DE tandem in the country.

UCLA is going to want revenge after losing a 24-31 thriller at Texas A&M last season.  The Bruins were only outgained 442 to 468 in that contest.  Now the Bruins get to host the Aggies this time around, and I think they should be closer to TD favorites than a FG here.

Texas A&M is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games as a road dog, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of 7 points or less.  UCLA is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 non-conference home games.  Plays on home teams (UCLA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Rockies UNDER 11.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies should go UNDER the posted total of 11.5 today when you consider the quality of the two starting pitchers going at it.  Both Zack Godley and German Marquez are having fine seasons for their respective ball clubs.

Godley is 6-7 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 20 starts this season with 129 K's in 123 innings.  He has been at his best on the road, going 3-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Godley is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in one career starts against Colorado.

Marquez is 10-5 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 125 K's in 131 1/3 innings.  Marquez has posted some solid numbers in four career starts against Arizona as well.  He is 0-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in four starts against them.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockies' last eight home games.  The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Godley's last 11 starts.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Marquez's last eight starts.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Marquez's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Rockies last 27 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -107

The Colorado Rockies will be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday.  They lost game 1 to the Diamondbacks yesterday, who have now won eight straight overall.  Now the Diamondbacks are clearly overvalued due to this winning streak.

Colorado has the clear edge on the mound today and should be a heavier favorite.  Jon Gray has gone 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five home starts this year.  He is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Gray gave up only 2 earned runs in 6 innings while striking out 10 in a 6-3 win at Arizona on June 30th in his only start against them in 2017.

Pat Corbin has been great at home this season, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  Corbin is 4-8 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.  Corbin has allowed at least 4 earned runs in his 7 career starts at Colorado.  He has gone 2-2 with a 7.78 ERA in those seven starts at Coors Field, allowing 32 earned runs in 37 innings.

The Diamondbacks are 43-89 in their last 132 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 1-8 in Corbin's last nine road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 6-0 in Gray's last six home starts.  Take the Rockies Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -18

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were picked by many to be a playoff contender last year.  They fell flat on their faces and went just 4-8.  Now nobody is talking about Notre Dame heading into 2017, and those are the teams I like to back early in the season.

Notre Dame was clearly better than its 4-8 record.  The Fighting Irish went a college football-worst 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, which was simply bad luck.  With Brian Kelly on the hot season, he will have his team ready to go heading into this opener against Temple.

Conversely, Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls come in way overvalued here.

The Fighting Irish were in a rebuilding year last year when you look back because they only had eight starters returning.  But now they have 15 starters back in 2017.  This is a team that won 10 games when they had 16 starters back in 2015.  I think they will make a run at 10 wins again this season as this is clearly one of the most talented teams in the country.

Plays on home favorites (NOTRE DAME) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -18.5

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Now they have seven starters back, including QB Shane Buechele, who  got his feet wet as a freshman last year.  He completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,958 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  Buechele has his top three receivers back and four starters and 75 career starts along the offensive line.  Offensive coordinator Tim Beck replaced Herman at Ohio State and spent the last two years calling the offense for the Buckeyes.

Strong wasn't able to put his imprint on the defense during his time here, which was a huge surprise.  But now the Longhorns should have their best defense in years with 10 starters and each of the top eight tacklers back.  Herman brings defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him from Houston, where he guided two great defenses for the Cougars over the last two years.

Maryland went 6-7 last year in DJ Durkin's first season.  The six wins came against Howard, FIU, UCF, Purdue, Michigan State and Rutgers.  Only one of those teams made a bowl game, which was 6-7 UCF.  The Terrapins went 1-7 against bowl teams, and they were consistently overmatched.  They lost by 24 to Penn State, by 21 to Minnesota, by 56 to Michigan, by 59 to Ohio State and by 21 to Nebraska.  Texas is in the class of many of those teams.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions have the feel of a 'flavor of the month' team heading into 2017.  That's because they closed last season by 9-1 in their last 10 games with their only loss to USC in the Rose Bowl by a final of 49-52 in a game they arguably should have won.  They came out of nowhere to win the Big Ten.

Now expectations are clearly high as the Nittany Lions come in ranked No. 6 in the country.  You won't be getting any discounts backing them this year, and that's evident with this opening line.  Penn State is a ridiculous 31-point favorite over Akron.

I take a look at the last couple seasons and find that Penn State has played a MAC team early in the year each of the last five seasons.  It hasn't fared very well.  The Nittany Lions beat Kent State 33-13 as 22-point favorites in 2016, Buffalo 27-14 as 17-point favorites in 2015, Akron 21-3 as 14-point favorites in 2014, Eastern Michigan 45-7 as 24-point favorites in 2013, and actually lost to Ohio 14-24 as 6-point favorites in 2012.

Akron is going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  The Zips went 5-7 in a rebuilding year last season with only seven returning starters.  That came after they went 8-5 in 2015 with 12 returning starters.

Terry Bowden is arguably the best coach in the MAC now.  He has done a tremendous job in recruiting some transfers from major schools like Ohio State, Miami, Pitt, Rutgers, Virginia and Nebraska.  And now Bowden has his most experienced team since he took over at Akron six years ago.

The Zips return 15 starters and 57 lettermen this year.  They are the 27th-most experienced team in the country.  Senior QB Thomas Woodson is back after completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,079 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions last year.  Four starters are back along the offensive line, and each of the top four tacklers and seven starters return on defense.

Woodson missed four games last year and had offseason shoulder surgery.  He is back healthy, as is running back Warren Ball, a 2016 Ohio State graduate transfer who was injured in the second game of the season and received a medical redshirt.

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 28.5 to 35 points.  Roll with Akron Saturday.

20* Washington/Rutgers FS1 Friday No-Brainer on Rutgers +27.5

I was big on the Washington Huskies last year.  I predicted they'd win the Pac-12 and make the four-team playoff, and they did just that.  But now they are no longer flying under the radar after their 12-2 season, and they aren't as talented as they were a year ago.  They come in ranked No. 8 in the country with the spotlight now squarely on them.

Washington goes from having 15 starters back last year to 13 this year.  They lose key players to the NFL, including WR John Ross and S Budda Baker.  Don't get me wrong, this team still has QB Jake Browning, RB Myles Gaskin and plenty of talent to win the Pac-12, but they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

I think that's evident when you look at the point spread compared to last year against Rutgers.  Washington was a 25-point home favorite over Rutgers last year, but now they are a 27.5-point road favorite this time around.  And Washington won't be as good, while Rutgers will certainly be improved.

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

Washington did beat Rutgers 48-13 last year to cover that 25-point spread.  However, a look at the stats shows the game was much closer than the final score.  The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 380 to 304 in that game, or by 76 total yards.  The difference was two return touchdowns by the Huskies, one on a kickoff and one on a punt.  That's unlikely to happen again.  Rutgers also had 21 first downs to just 17 for Washington.  The Scarlet Knights turned the ball over three times as well.

It's also worth noting that the Huskies are going to be without two starting LB's in Azeem Victor and DJ Beavers, who combined for 107 tackles a year ago.  Washington is 3-12 SU in its last 15 true road openers.  The Huskies are 1-9 SU in their last 10 non-conference road games vs. Power 5 teams.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Yankees OVER 9

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this showdown between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox tonight.  Look for the runs to be plentiful in this one to push the total OVER 9 runs here.

Doug Fister is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-5 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Fister is 3-3 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in eight career starts against New York.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Yankees.

Sonny Gray has been solid this season at 8-8 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 21 starts.  However, he hasn't fared well against the Red Sox throughout his career.  Indeed, he is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in five starts against them.

The Yankees are 12-2 to the OVER in home games off a win by 4 runs or more this season.  The OVER is 8-2 in Red Sox last 10 Friday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Yankees last four games following a win.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Seahawks/Raiders NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -1.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* NFLX BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings -3

No analysis for preseason.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma State -17.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

Tulsa is coming off one of the best seasons in school history at 10-3 last year.  They posted that record despite giving up 29.8 points and 426 yards per game defensively.  That defense will take another step back with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top four tacklers.

The Golden Hurricane were able to overcome those defensive deficiencies by scoring 42.5 points per game and averaging 527 yards per game offensively.  However, major regression can be expected on this side of the ball due to the massive losses at the playmaker positions.

The Golden Hurricane lose their all-time leading passer in QB Dane Evans (11,680 yards), two 1,000-yard receivers in Keevan Lucas (81, 1,180, 15 TD) and Josh Atkinson (78, 1,058, 8 TD) and leading rusher James Flanders (1,661 yards, 18 TD).  It will simply be impossible to replace that kind of production.

I think losing that early game to Central Michigan last year will have Oklahoma State more focused heading into the 2017 opener.  They won't be taking Tulsa lightly at all.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Mike Gundy is 58-33 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -128

I've backed the Baltimore Orioles the past two days and I'm going to stay with them today.  This team is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall while scoring a combined 52 runs for an average of 7.4 runs per game.

Conversely, Toronto is 2-10 in its last 12 games overall to fall to 61-72 on the season.  The Blue Jays are realizing their postseason chances are done, and it's showing up in their play.  The Orioles are just 1.5 games back in the wild card and are pushing forward to try and make the postseason.

Jeremy Hellickson is 8-7 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He is 5-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 16 career starts against Toronto.  Marco Estrada is 6-8 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 27 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in his last three starts.

Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 45-11 (80.4%, +29.8 units) over the last five seasons.  Take the Orioles Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore Orioles -131

The Baltimore Orioles have reeled off six straight wins to pull within 1.5 games of the Twins for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They have scored a combined 44 runs in those six games, or an average of 7.3 runs per game.

But yesterday was about pitching at Dylan Bundy tossed an inspirational complete game shutout in a 4-0 victory for the Orioles.  That's huge because it gave the bullpen a rest, and with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound today, the bullpen will likely be called upon in the 6th or 7th inning.

I'll gladly fade Ariel Miranda, who is 8-6 with a 4.62 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Miranda has been at his worst on the road, going 5-3 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  His numbers are still better than those of Jimenez, but the Orioles have all the momentum right now, and Jimenez will come up big today.

The Orioles are 30-10 in Jimenez's last 40 home starts, including 15-3 in his last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mariners are 0-4 in their last four road games.  Seattle is 1-6 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Baltimore is 10-3 in its last 13 vs. a left-handed starter.  The Mariners are 6-14 in their last 20 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -131

The Baltimore Orioles have won five straight while scoring a combined 40 runs in the process.  This winning streak now has them just 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League and motivated to keep pushing forward.

Now Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Orioles looking to build on an already impressive season.  He is 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 24 starts, including 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Bundy is also 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 27 innings while striking out 33 batters.

Erasmo Ramirez is no match for Bundy in this one.  He is 4-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in seven road starts.  Ramirez has allowed 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings for a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore.

Plays on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BALTIMORE) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 44-12 (78.6%, +26.6 units) over the last five seasons.

The Mariners are 1-9 in Ramirez's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 6-0 in Bundy's last six starts.  The Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox +108

The Boston Red Sox come into this game with the Toronto Blue Jays highly motivated for a victory.  They were just swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend.  But now they're up against a Toronto team that is 2-7 in its last nine games to fall to 61-69.  The Blue Jays have played themselves out of the wild card race with this stretch.

Drew Pomeranz is 13-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 25 starts this season, 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 12 road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last three starts.  Pomeranz is also 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.  He has given up just 1 earned run in 12 2/3 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays in 2017.

Marcus Stroman is having a fine season for the Blue Jays at 11-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 26 starts.  But he should not be favored here.  Stroman is 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA in his last five starts against Boston, giving up 24 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings during this stretch.

The Red Sox are 12-2 in Pomeranz's last 14 starts vs. AL East opponents, and 4-0 in his last four starts overall.  The Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Boston has won four straight meetings in Toronto.  Bet the Red Sox Monday.

25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Redskins OVER 44.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -102

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the lowly Oakland A's and need a win Sunday to avoid the sweep.  I'm betting them to do just that.

A.J. Griffin is 6-4 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in eight road starts.  While not great, he has been better than Jharel Cotton.  The right-hander is 6-10 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 19 starts, including 2-6 with a 7.88 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Griffin and Cotton squared off back on April 17th earlier this season.  The Rangers won that game 7-0.  Griffin pitched 6 shutout innings, allowing only two base runners and striking out eight.  Cotton allowed 5 runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in that contest.

Griffin is 14-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 7-0 in Griffin's last seven starts vs. AL West opponents.  Te A's are 4-9 in Cotton's last 13 starts.  Oakland is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

20* Rice/Stanford 2017 CFB Season Opener on Rice +31

This is a rare non-conference rematch from the previous season.  Rice and Stanford played each other in the final week of the regular season.  Stanford won 41-17, failing to cover as 35-point home favorites in a 24-point win.

So the Owls are already familiar with the Cardinal and only lost by 24 on the road.  Now they get to play them in their first game of 2017 and on a neutral field in Sydney, Australia this time around.  I see no reason they shouldn't be able to stay within 24 again, let alone 31, which is the spread for this rematch.

Rice is going to improved from last year's 3-9 campaign.  The Owls had a very young team and were decimated by injuries.  This year they have 15 starters back and will be mostly a junior/senior laden team.  David Bailiff is on the hot seat and he does his best work when little is expected of him.

I like the way the Owls finished the season last year, going 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They easily could have quit after their 1-8 start, but managed to go 2-1 in those last three.  They won 22-21 at Charlotte as 12-point dogs, thumped UTEP 44-24 as 1-point home favorites, and then obviously covered as 35-point dogs in that 17-41 loss at Stanford.

Stanford is going to be a contender in the Pac-12 this season, just as they are year in and year out.  But they did lose their two best players from last year in Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas, who are both once-in-a-generation type players.  The loss of McCaffrey is absolutely huge because he provided most of their offense over the past two seasons.

Stanford plays a Big Ten style.  They will beat you up physically, but they won't blow the doors off and run up the score.  They are a ball control team, which makes it tough for them to cover massive spreads like this one.  And I think this is actually a tough spot for the Cardinal because they have their biggest game of the season against USC on deck, and they could be overlooking Rice, while also finding it hard to be focused in a foreign country here.

The Owls are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* Chargers/Rams CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -107

The Texas Rangers are right in the thick of the wild card race.  They are only two games back and can't afford to be losing to teams like the Oakland A's.  I think they have a big edge on the mound today, and given their edge in motivation, they should be a much bigger favorite here.

Cole Hamels is having a very good season, going 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 16 starts.  He is 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just 6 earned runs in 29 innings.  Hamels is 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in six starts against division opponents this season.  Hamels is 2-1 with a 2.94 ERA in five career starts against Oakland as well.

The heavy workload has really started to catch up with Sean Manaea in his first full season as a starter.  He is 0-2 with a 13.04 ERA and 2.277 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has actually allowed 21 runs in his last 12 1/3 innings spanning his past four starts.  Manaea is 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA in five career starts against Texas.  He has allowed 11 runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers are 28-5 in Hamels' last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Texas is 45-16 in Hamels' last 61 starts overall.  Oakland is 0-6 in its last six games following a win.  The A's are 1-5 in Manaea's last six starts.  Take the Rangers Saturday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -3

No Analysis for preseason.

15* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)

The Chicago Cubs blew a late lead yesterday to the Cincinnati Reds.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory here Friday against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies, who own the worst record in baseball.  Chicago is 21-6 in its last 27 games following a loss.

Jose Quintana has been very effective in a Cubs' uniform.  He is 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA in his first seven starts with the club.  He has allowed six or fewer hits in each of his past 14 starts, the longest active streak in the major leagues.

Jerad Eickhoff is 3-7 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He faced the Cubs on May 3rd in his only start against them this season.  He gave up 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, which was the second time in his last three starts against them that he has allowed at least 4 runs.

Quintana is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.7 runs per game on average in these spots.  The Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Phillies are 36-79 in their last 115 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -163

The Chicago Cubs have won four straight games heading into Thursday's action.  Their offense has come alive as they have scored 79 runs in their last 10 games overall for an average of 7.9 runs per game.  That includes 22 runs in the first two games of this series with Cincinnati.

Jake Arrieta has delivered seven straight quality starts, going 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA during this stretch.  He had a huge second half two years ago, and he's doing it again in 2017.  Arrieta is 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in nine career starts against Cincinnati as well.

Sal Romano is one of the many overmatched starting pitchers for the Reds.  He is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four home starts.  He'll get lit up once again by this hot Cubs lineup.

Arrieta is 14-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 14-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 18-1 (+16.0 Units) against the money line after giving up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Eagles NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

No analysis for preseason.

25* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -137

The Chicago Cubs have now won four straight to take control of the NL Central.  They are swinging hot bats right now as they have scored 6 or more runs in seven of their last nine games after hanging 13 on the lowly Cincinnati Reds yesterday.

Lefty Mike Montgomery has been serviceable for the Cubs, going 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.314 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in five road starts.  The Reds are just 8-24 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .245 and scoring 4.1 runs per game.

Asher Wojciechowski is getting too much love from the books here Wednesday.  He is 2-2 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in seven starts this season.  One of those came against the Cubs on August 14th as he gave up 7 earned runs and 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-15 loss.

The Cubs are 12-0 in their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 39-15 in its last 54 meetings with Cincinnati.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105)

The Arizona Diamondbacks ended a 3-9 run with a big victory in extra innings over the New York Mets yesterday to move 3.5 games up on the Brewers in the wild card.  This is a Mets team that appears to have quit, going 1-7 in their last eight games overall.

The Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound tonight behind Pate Corbin.  He is coming off two of his best starts of the season.  He has pitched 15 1/3 scoreless innings while allowing only 11 base runners and striking out 15 in back-to-back wins over the Cubs and Astros, two of the best teams in baseball.

Tom Milone gets the nod for the Mets.  He is 1-2 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with an 11.33 ERA and 2.614 WHIP in three home starts.  Milone is 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona as well.

The Mets are 0-10 vs. teams outscoring opppnents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  They are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  New York is 1-11 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  It is losing by 3.6 runs per game in this situation.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Giants/Browns NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland +1.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -127

After going just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall, the Arizona Diamondbacks now only have a 2.5 lead on the Milwaukee Brewers for the final wild card spot.  It looked like a foregone conclusion they would make the postseason at the All-Star Break, but now they are going to have to work for it.

So the Diamondbacks will come into this series highly motivated for a victory.  The same cannot be said for the New York Mets, who appear to have quit on their season.  The Mets are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall.  This is a tremendous value on the Diamondbacks given their motivation and their huge edge on the mound.

Taijuan Walker is having a solid season at 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA in 20 starts, including 4-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 11 road starts.  Robert Gsellman has been horrible all years, going 5-5 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.629 WHIP in 15 starts, including 0-1 with an 8.53 ERA and 1.896 WHIP in his last three.

The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last eight Monday games.  The Mets are 14-37 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 0-4 in Gsellman's last four starts.  Arizona is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.v

15* Saints/Chargers NFL Network No-Brainer on New Orleans +3.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-105)

The Texas Rangers have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the last wild card spot in the American League.  Their offense just put up 17 runs on the White Sox yesterday, making it four times in the last five games that they have scored at least 9 runs.  We'll ride the hot hand today once again.

Speaking of hot hands, A.J. Griffin has pitched his best baseball of the season of late.  He is 6-3 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 11 starts this season, but 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in his last three.  He is clearly the better starter in this matchup.

The White Sox are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall to fall to 46-73 on the season.  Miguel Gonzalez has been awful on the road this year, going 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.  Gonzalez is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in six career starts against Texas as well.

Griffin is 9-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Rangers are 11-2 in Griffin's last 13 home starts.  They are winning by 2.4 runs per game as well.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Broncos/49ers NFL Network Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

No analysis for preseason.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -116

The St. Louis Cardinals are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  This recent hot streak has gotten them to within 1.5 games of the Chicago Cubs for 1st place in the NL Central.  The catalyst has been their offense as they have scored 6 or more runs in nine of their last 12 games.

Michael Wacha is having a solid season at 9-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Wacha has had plenty of success against the Pirates, who are 0-6 in their last six games overall and essentially have nothing to play for now.  Wacha is 5-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Chad Kuhl is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is 5-8 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 3-4 with a 5.15 ERA in 12 home starts.  Kuhl has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 (0-4 money line) with a 5.50 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Pirates are 11-27 following a one-run loss over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 24-9 in Wacha's last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 3-12 in Kuhl's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Vikings/Seahawks NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +4.5

No analysis for preseason

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-120)

The Texas Rangers on a nice run to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  Their offense has been the catalyst in scoring 5 or more runs in all seven wins during this stretch.

The Chicago White Sox have gone in the other direction.  They have lost five straight while allowing at least 5 runs in all five losses.  Now they are starting their worst pitcher in James Shields, who is 2-4 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Shields had allowed 18 homers in just 68 2/3 innings pitched.

Andrew Cashner has been the best starter for the Rangers.  He is 7-9 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 starts, 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts.  This guy has consistently been underrated all season.

Shields is 13-33 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last two seasons.  His teams are losing by 2.0 runs per game on average.  Texas is 13-2 after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more last game over the last three seasons, winning by 3.1 runs per game on average.  The White Sox are 2-12 in Shields' last 14 road starts.  Texas is 7-0 in its last seven vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bucs/Jags NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +2

No Analysis for Preseason

25* AL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100, Game 1)

One of the weirdest stats you will see this season is the head-to-head history between the Twins and Indians.  The road team is actually 13-1 in their 14 meetings this year.  We'll continue riding this trend Thursday and back the Indians in Game 1 of this double-header on the Run Line.

The Indians have a massive edge on the mound tonight to boot.  Carlos Carrasco is 11-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 8-2 with a 3.09 ERA on the highway.  He pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in an 8-1 win at Minnesota on June 16th in his only start against them this season.

Kyle Gibson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 6-9 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts this year.  That includes a 3-6 record and a 6.89 ERA and 1.84 WHIP at home this season.  Gibson has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 consecutive starts against the Indians, posting a 6.59 ERA in those five outings.

The Indians are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cleveland is 5-0 in its last five road games.  The Indians are 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Twins are 16-35 in Gibson's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 27-56 in its last 83 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 0-6 in Gibson's last six home starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -141

The Colorado Rockies have returned home following a tough 1-4 road trip.  They got back on track with a 3-0 win over the Braves yesterday, and they are now 36-21 at home this season, hitting .301 and scoring 6.1 runs per game at Coors Field. The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games overall.

Kyle Freeland has put up some impressive home numbers at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season.  He is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 home starts this year.  The Rockies are 20-13 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .280 and scoring 5.5 runs per game against them.

Lefty Sean Newcomb gets the ball for the Braves tonight.  He hasn't had much success this season, going 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 11 starts.  The Braves have gone 2-9 in his 11 starts this year.

Atlanta is 9-37 in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 1-8 in their last nine road games.  Atlanta is 0-7 in Newcomb's last seven starts.  Colorado is 16-5 in its last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Rockies are 4-0 in Freeland's last four starts, and 5-1 in his last six home starts.  Colorado is 11-0 in its last 11 home meetings with Atlanta.  Bet the Rockies Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  This is a Cubs team that will be taking the Reds seriously considering they are only one game ahead of the Cardinals and two ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Jose Quintana is clearly the better starter in this game.  He has gone 6-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 143 K's in 134 1/3 innings.  The Reds are awful against left-handed starters, going 7-22 against them this season while hitting .243 and scoring 3.9 runs per game.

Asher Wojciechowski is one of the many sub-par starters in the Reds' rotation.  He has gone 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA in two road starts.

Quintana is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

15* Seahawks/Chargers NFLX Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +2.5

No analysis for preseason

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Milwaukee Brewers should be much bigger home favorites today over the Cincinnati Reds.  But because they have struggled of late, they are undervalued right now.  The Brewers are still right in the thick of the NL Central race and the Reds are still in last place in the division.

Matt Garza is coming off a rough outing, but he had allowed two earned runs or fewer in his five previous starts.  Look for him to bounce back against the Reds here Sunday afternoon.  Garza has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last two starts against Cincinnati.

Sal Romano doesn't deserve to be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  He is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start and figures to exit early in this one as well.

The Reds are 15-36 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-9 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Reds are 1-4 in Romano's last five starts.  The Brewers are 9-1 in Garza's last 10 starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +3

No Analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -139

The Milwaukee Brewers are in must-win mode now after their brutal stretch since the All-Star Break.  They cannot afford to keep losing to teams like Cincinnati as they did last night.  Now they are back to being undervalued as short home favorites here thanks to going 0-6 in their last six games overall.

The Reds will give the ball to Scott Feldman, who is slated to come off the disabled list after missing time since July 17th.  Feldman is 7-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 19 starts this season, 3-4 with a 4.99 ERA in nine road starts, and 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in his last two starts.  He is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee as well.

Brent Suter has been the much better starter in limited action for the Brewers.  He has gone 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in eight starts, including 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three home starts.

The Reds are 7-21 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .245 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game.  Cincinnati is 16-35 in its last 51 road games, and 23-54 in its last 77 games against left-handed starters overall.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115)

The Milwaukee Brewers have now lost five straight games after getting swept by the Minnesota Twins last series.  But they are still just two games back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series at home against the Cincinnati Reds Friday.

The Brewers should have no problem winning by two runs or more thanks to their edge on the mound.  Jimmy Nelson has been their ace all season, going 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his last three starts, so he has shown no signs of slowing down.  He's 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season, and 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA in his last five starts against Cincinnati, giving up just 8 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings.

Homer Bailey has been a mess since returning from injury.  He is now 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Bailey gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Cardinals.  He faced the Brewers back on June 29th, and he was blasted for 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 3-11 loss.

The Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-10 in Bailey's last 12 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson's last five home starts.  Milwaukee is 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 5-1 in Nelson's last six starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Reds are 1-4 in Bailey's last five starts vs. Milwaukee.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bucs/Bengals NFLX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +2

No Analysis for preseason.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Brewers -152

The Milwaukee Brewers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday after losing the first three games of this interleague rivalry against the Minnesota Twins.  They will be looking to avoid the sweep with a Game 4 victory.

The Brewers will send their hottest starter to the mound in Zach Davies, who is 2-1 with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 25 base runners in 28 2/3 innings.

Milwaukee is 13-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The Twins are 16-40 in their last 56 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, including 5-26 in their last 31 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 15-5 in Davies' last 20 starts.  Milwaukee is 4-0 in its last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Brewers Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* Dodgers/DBacks NL West No-Brainer on Arizona +105

I cashed in the Diamondbacks as nice underdogs at home last night against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I'm going to back them again as home dogs here Wednesday.  This is a revenge series for them after getting swept in Los Angeles with three one-run losses to the Dodgers in their last series.

I would argue that the Diamondbacks have the edge on the mound with Zack Greinke, who is 13-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 22 starts, including a perfect 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 12 home starts.  This guy has been a money-making machine at home throughout his career.

Alex Wood was due to cool off after a great start to the season.  He has done just that, going 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in his last three starts.  Those came against the Braves (twice) and Giants, so he has been struggling against some poor lineups.  Now he's up against a DBacks team that is 37-18 at home, hitting .277 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at chase field this season.

The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games, including 11-1 in Greinke's last 12 home starts.  Arizona is 7-0 in Greinke's last seven starts when working on 5 days of rest.  The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five meetings in Arizona.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.