20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -108

After getting shut out by elite starter Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of this series, I look for the Reds to take Game 2.  It's going to be much easier on their hitters going up against a guy like David Phelps than Fernandez.

Phelps has gone 4-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 13 starts and four relief appearances in 2015.  The right-hander is also 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati.  In his lone start against the Reds this season, Phelps allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 2/3 innings of a 2-5 loss in Cincinnati on June 21.

The Reds clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one with Mike Leake.  He has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in eight road starts.  But what stands out the most is that Leake is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in five career starts against Miami.  He pitched 7 shutout innings of a 5-0 win over Miami on June 19.

Miami is 0-6 (-7.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Miami is 1-6 in Phelps' last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Reds Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -127

The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of this series Thursday.  They should be much bigger favorites given the massive edge they have on the mound.

Ace David Price has put up AL Cy Young-caliber numbers in 2015.  The left-hander has gone 8-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 17 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine road starts.  Price has gone 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota as well.

Mike Pelfrey is not on Price's level.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 2.762 WHIP in his last three.  Pelfrey is 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in eight career starts against Detroit.  In his last start against the Tigers on May 14th, he allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 12 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 13-1 loss.

The Tigers are 12-0 in Price's last 12 starts vs. division opponents.  Price is 10-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.  Detroit is 8-0 in Price's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.  These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Tigers Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Oakland A's -107

The Oakland A's are the most underrated team in baseball right now due to their 39-47 record.  They actually have one of the best run differentials (+50) in baseball in spite of that poor record, but they have gone 7-21 in one-run games.  That's simply poor luck and I look for the A's to be a great bet the rest of the way.

Oakland clearly has the edge on the mound today behind Scott Kazmir, who is 5-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.119 WHIP over 16 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three.  Kazmir is 8-8 with a 3.48 ERA in 20 career starts against the Yankees.  In his last two starts against New York, he has allowed just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings.

C.C. Sabathia continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers despite being washed up.  The left-hander has been terrible over the last three years, and it hasn't been any better in 2015.  Sabathia is 3-8 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in six home starts.  He is 8-11 with a 4.75 ERA in 28 career starts against Oakland.  In his last two starts against the A's, Sabathia has allowed 11 earned runs and four homers over 12 innings.

The A's are 7-0 in their last seven road games.  Oakland is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The A's are 5-0 in their last five Wednesday games.  Oakland is 10-1 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Oakland.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -123

After losing seven straight games to fall back to 42-42 on the season, the San Francisco Giants enter this game with the New York Mets highly motivated for a victory.  I expect that motivation to lead to a win today behind starter Matt Cain.

Cain will be making his second start back from injury and should be much sharper this time around.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Mets.  In his last two starts against New York, Cain has allowed just two earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.

Bartolo Colon has finally started to slow down this season, going 9-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 starts, including 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in seven road starts.  The right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.449 WHIP In five career starts against the Giants as well.

The Mets are 6-24 in their last 30 games as an underdog.  New York is 7-19 in its last 26 road games.  The Mets are 0-5 in Colon's last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Giants are 17-5 in their last 22 during game 2 of a series.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +132

The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value today as big road underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They will be motivated for a win today after dropping two straight and five of their last seven overall.

I'll gladly back ace James Shields at this price.  The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 4.14 ERA over 17 starts this season.  He has struck out 123 batters in 104 1/3 innings.  Shields faced Pittsburgh on May 29th, giving up two earned runs in six innings of a 6-2 Padres' victory.

A.J. Burnett is way overvalued right now after his improbable first half where he went 7-3 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 16 starts.  Burnett is just 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Diego.  He allowed five runs, four earned, and 10 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres on May 28th.

Shields is 9-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Burnett is 1-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  San Diego is 6-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games after two straight losses by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Padres Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Sunday as small road favorites over the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers are getting too much respect due to their surprising 41-41 start this year.  They have been outscored 2-21 by the Angels in the first two games of this series.

Los Angeles will complete the sweep today behind C.J. Wilson.  The left-hander has gone 6-6 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven road starts.  Wilson gave up one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 4-1 win over Texas on April 24th in his lone start against the Rangers this season.

Colby Lewis has put up respectable numbers at 8-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 16 starts this season, but he's overvalued as a result.  Plus, Lewis is 5-9 with a 5.44 ERA in 18 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Angels are 40-17 in their last 57 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Los Angeles is 21-8 in Wilson's last 29 starts as a favorite.  The Rangers are 14-41 in their last 55 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Texas is 0-7 in its last seven vs. AL West foes.  The Rangers are 1-7 in Lewis' last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -116

The Boston Red Sox lost in extra innings to the Houston Astros yesterday.  I believe they'll be extra motivated today as a result, and I certainly feel that they get revenge due to the edge they have on the mound.

Clay Buchholz is having a fine season at 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 16 starts.  But he has really lowered those numbers thanks to his dominance of late.  Indeed, Buchholz is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in his last three starts.  Plus, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.

Collin McHugh has managed to turn around his season by pitching well here of late as well.  Even with his recent successes, McHugh is 9-3 in spite of a 4.16 ERA in 16 starts this year.  He has simply been fortunate to get great run support in his starts, which is certainly a luck factor.

Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 51-13 (79.7%, +34.2 units) over the last five seasons.  Boston is 7-0 in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -129

The Washington Nationals are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Francisco Giants today.  They will be highly motivated for a win as they come in off two straight losses in their previous series against the Braves.

Gio Gonzalez has not pitched very well on the road this season, but he has been very solid at home, going 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in six starts.  He's coming off his best start of the season, pitching 7 shutout innings against the Pirates last time out.

Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.  He'll be opposed by Jake Peavy, who is washed up.  Peavy is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in his two starts this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.

The Giants are 0-5 in Peavy's last five starts. San Francisco is 0-4 in its last four road games.  Washington is 6-0 in its last six home games.  The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four during Game 1 of a series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Nationals Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -117

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as small home favorites over the Texas Rangers.  After losing two out of three thus far in this series, there's no question that the Orioles will be motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight to avoid losing the series.

Kevin Gausman was one of the top prospects in the game when he was drafted by Baltimore.  While he will be making just his second start of 2015, he pitched well in his first, giving up just two runs and four hits over five innings of a 5-3 win at Toronto on June 20.

Yovani Gallardo is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to his recent performances.  He actually hasn't allowed a run in any of his last three starts.  But he'll now be up against a potent Baltimore offense that has scored 4 or more runs in 10 of its last 12 games overall.

The Orioles are 61-28 in their last 89 home games.  Baltimore is 56-22 in its last 78 home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Orioles are 9-3 in Gausman's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rangers are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings, including 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Orioles Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -119

The Chicago Cubs finally put an end to their five-game losing streak yesterday with a 1-0 victory over the Mets, who had previously won four straight coming in.  I look for the Cubs to take Game 2 of this series tonight thanks to the edge they have on the mound.

Ace Jon Lester has not pitched up to his potential to this point, but that's also a reason why we are getting him at such a great price here.  Lester is 4-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 15 starts.  He has pitched much better of late, going 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts.  The left-hander is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against New York.

Bartolo Colon has finally started to show signs of slowing down in 2015.  The veteran is 9-6 in spite of a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts this year.  Colon has really been battered in his last two starts, going 0-2 while allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 1/3 innings.  Colon is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.

The Mets are 23-47 in their last 70 games as an underdog.  New York is 22-53 in its last 75 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  New York is 1-6 in its last seven games following a loss.  The Mets are 0-4 in Colon's last four starts as a dog of +110 to +150.  Chicago is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118

The Chicago Cubs could not possibly be more motivated for a victory than they will be tonight when they take on the New York Mets.  They have lost five straight coming in, while the Mets have won four in a row.  I'll back the more hungry Cubs in this one.

Kyle Hendricks has pitched well this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA, but he has been unfortunate to have that big of an ERA considering his WHIP is just 1.220 and he doesn't walk many batters or give up a ton of home runs.  Hendricks is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his lone career start against the Mets.

Jon Niese, on the other hand, is fortunate to have a 4.12 ERA in spite of his 3-7 record and 1.518 WHIP over 14 starts this year.  The left-hander has struggled to remain in the rotation.  Nise is 3-5 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in nine career starts against the Cubs as well.

The Mets are 35-79 in their last 114 games as a home underdog.  New York is 4-22 in its last 26 games as an underdog overall.  New York is 5-17 in Niese's last 22 starts as an underdog.  The Mets are 7-21 in Niese's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 1-7 in Niese's last eight starts.  The Mets are 0-8 in Niese's last eight starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

This over/under has been set too low tonight between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.  The Blue Jays sport the best offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game, while the Red Sox are heating up at the plate, scoring four or more runs in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Clay Buchholz has pitched OK this season at 5-6 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 15 starts.  This will be the fourth time that he has faced the Blue Jays this year, which is a huge advantage for Toronto.  Buchholz is 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in those three starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 15 innings.

R.A. Dickey hasn't exactly enjoyed life in the AL East.  He is 3-7 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  Dickey  has also faced the Red Sox three times this season, which is an advantage for Boston as well.  The right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA in those three starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 19 innings.

The OVER is 7-2-2 in Buchholz's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 12-4 in Buchholz's last 17 starts on 4 days of rest.  The OVER is 5-0-2 in Dickey's last seven starts on 5 days of rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +127

After dropping four straight, including the first two of this series with the Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs clearly won't be lacking any motivation Sunday night.  They'll be hungry to get back in the win column and to avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with Jason Hammel on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.938 WHIP In 14 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last three.  He has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past two seasons.

Carlos Martinez is having a great season for St. Louis as well, going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 14 starts and one relief appearance.  He has been a little shakier at home, going 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in six starts.  In his lone start against Chicago this season, Martinez allowed 7 earned runs and 13 base runners over 3 2/3 innings.  He'll get rocked again tonight.

The Cubs are 14-3 in Hammel's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record, including 5-0 in his last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven games after allowing 5 or more runs in its previous game.  Bet the Cubs Sunday night.

25* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -139

After dropping Game 1 of this series to the Seattle Mariners, I fully expect the Los Angeles Angels to pick up a win at home in Game 2.  They have a massive advantage on the mound tonight, and as a result, they have earned AL West GOTY status.

Garrett Richards has shown no signs of being slowed by injury after missing much of last season.  He is 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 13 starts, including 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six home starts.  Richards owns the Mariners, going 3-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in six career starts against them.

J.A. Happ is having a solid season overall at 3-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 14 starts.  However, he is just 1-2 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in seven road starts, and 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last three.  The kicker is that Happ is 0-3 with a 9.83 ERA and 2.366 WHIP in three career starts against the Angels, having never beaten them.

The Mariners are 0-5 in Happ's last five starts.  Seattle is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win.  The Angels are 51-25 in their last 76 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Los Angeles is 22-8 in Richards' last 30 home starts.  The Angels are 8-2 in Richards' last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland A's -119

The Oakland A's have finally turned it around.  They are starting to play up to their potential and will be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  The A's have won five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall.  They scored a combined 22 runs in sweeping the Rangers in three games last series.

Oakland will be motivated following the brawls that took place the last time these teams got together, and they really want to stick it to the Royals as a result.  Jess Hahn is a solid starter, going 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in eight home starts.

Edinson Volquez has had a good year in Kansas City, going 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 14 starts.  He has faltered a bit of late, giving up 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Hahn has allowed 2 earned runs over 14 1/3 innings in his last two starts in beating the Angels and Padres.

Hahn picked 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory at Kansas City earlier this season in his lone career start against the Royals.  Volquez is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland.  The A's are 4-0 in Hahn's last four starts.  Oakland is 5-0 in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the A's Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

Two terrible starting pitchers square off tonight against two of the better lineups in baseball.  The end result will be a high-scoring affair between the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros in Game 2 of this series Friday.

Nathan Eovaldi is 6-2 in spite of a 4.95 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 14 starts this season for New York.  Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in seven road starts, and 1-1 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Vincent Velasquez is no more than a spot starter for the Astros.  He has gone 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in three starts this year.  Velasquez has already walked 10 batters in 13 innings, and as a result, he's only averaging 4.3 innings per start this year.

The Yankees are 9-1 OVER (+8.0 Units) when playing on Friday this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Eovaldi's last seven starts overall. The OVER is 8-0 in Yankees last eight during Game 2 of a series.  The OVER is 6-0 in Yankees last six vs. a right-handed starter.  These four trends combine for a 30-1 system backing the OVER.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -110

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Johnny Cueto at this kind of price.  We'll take advantage Friday and back the red-hot Reds, who have won six of their last eight games overall while scoring at least five runs in seven of those contests. 

The Mets have lost seven of their last eight while scoring two or fewer runs in seven of those contests.  Noah Syndergaard is a promising rookie starter, but he's just 2-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Mets.

Cueto continues to dominate year in and year out, going 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Cueto is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his last five starts against New York, allowing just seven earned runs over 33 innings of work.

The Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Cincinnati is 53-20 in Cueto's last 73 starts as a favorite.  The Mets are 16-40 in their last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  New York is 34-79 in its last 113 games as a home underdog.  Take the Reds Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +110

After getting shut out by the San Francisco Giants yesterday, I look for the San Diego Padres to come back motivated tonight to take Game 3 of this series.  They have lost nine of their last 10 series at AT&T Park and want to change that fortune.

I like their chances with ace James Shields on the mound.  Shields is 7-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He is also 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.  He gave up just one run over seven innings of a 10-2 San Diego victory in his lone start against the Giants this season on April 11th.

Chris Heston has pitched well for San Francisco this year, going 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 14 starts.  However, he has not fared well at all against the Padres.  Indeed, Heston is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing 8 earned runs and 22 base runners over 9 innings of work.

Shields is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last two seasons.  Shields is 9-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons.  Shields is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 home games.  Bet the Padres Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 8.5

Both the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are swinging the bats very well over the past couple days.  The Orioles have scored a combined 19 runs in their last two games, while the Red Sox have put up 17 runs their last two contests.  The hot bats should continue for both squads tonight.

Bud Norris has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 2-5 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in nine starts.  Norris has allowed a whopping 37 earned runs in 44 innings pitched this season.

Clay Buchholz is 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 14 starts this season for Boston, including 1-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in seven home starts.  In his last two starts against the Orioles, Buchholz has allowed 8 earned runs and 20 base runners over 8 1/3 innings.

Buchholz is 8-0 OVER (+8.1 Units) when playing on Wednesday over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 9-0 in Norris' last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Norris' last 7 starts vs. American League East.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks -113

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies today.  They should be much bigger favorites due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.  They have won seven of their last 10 while the Rockies have dropped nine of their last 12 coming in.

Chase Anderson has been their best starter this season.  The right-hander has gone 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 13 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in seven road starts.  Anderson is also 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three outings.

Kyle Kendrick has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year.  The right-hander is 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 14 starts.  He doesn't enjoy pitching inside Coors Field, going 0-4 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in six home starts.  Kendrick is also 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in nine career starts against Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are 9-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season.  Arizona is 8-2 in its last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 38-84 in their last 122 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Colorado is 17-41 in its last 58 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rockies are 1-7 in Kendrick's last eight starts as an underdog.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -124

This is a very generous price to get the Los Angeles Angels at tonight.  They will be motivated to bounce back from two straight losses over the weekend to the A's, and they have the clear edge on the mound tonight that will help them get back in the win column.

Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 4-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.218 WHIP with 78 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings.  Santiago is 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in eight home starts.  In his lone start against Houston this season, the left-hander pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings on May 7th.

Brett Oberholtzer has only made five starts for Houston this year.  He is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in spite of a lofty 1.443 WHIP.  Oberholtzer is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in two road starts.  The left-hander is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

The Astros are 29-63 in their last 92 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Houston is 5-11 in Oberholtzer's last 16 road starts.  The Angels are 11-2 in their last 13 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Los Angeles is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 3-10 in their last 13 trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Monday.

20* Giants/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +162

The San Francisco Giants are showing great value today as huge road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Giants are rolling right now having won three straight, and they would love nothing more than to sweep the rival Dodgers Sunday.

This line would indicate that Los Angeles has a huge edge on the mound tonight, but that's simply not the case.  Tim Lincecum is 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 starts this season.  Lincecum is 10-8 with a 3.12 ERA in 27 career starts against Los Angeles.

Brett Anderson is 2-4 with a 3.32 ERA in 13 starts this season for the Dodgers, but he's getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  Anderson is 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in six career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 21-11 (+14.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  San Francisco is 10-3 in its last 13 road games, and 9-2 in its last 11 road games as an underdog.  The Giants are 12-2 in their last 14 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Bet the Giants Sunday night.

20* Tigers/Yankees AL Saturday No-Brainer on Detroit +120

The New York Yankees have won three straight after a 7-2 win over Detroit in Game 1 of this series last night.  Alex Rodriquez collected his 3,000th hit in the win, so it was an emotional day for him and the team.  I believe they will suffer a letdown Saturday after such a historic night Friday.

Detroit, meanwhile, will come in highly motivated for a win after dropping three straight coming in.  I like its chances to put an end to this skid with Alfredo Simon on the mound.  Simon is 7-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in his last three.

Nathan Eovaldi just cannot seem to turn the corner in the big leagues.  He is a well below-average starter.  Eovaldi has struggled in his first season in New York, going 5-2 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in 13 starts.  He is 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three.

Detroit is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after five straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last three seasons.  Simon is 8-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in June games over the last two seasons.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -125

The Houston Astros are the real deal.  They went on a long losing streak at the beginning of June, but they have since kicked it into high gear after the arrival of top prospect Carlos Correa.  They have won five straight while scoring a combined 43 runs in the process, or an average of 8.6 runs per game.

I look for the bats to stay red hot against Seattle starter Roenis Elias, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in 10 starts.  Elias' last start came against the Astros on June 14th.  He was battered for 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 3 1/3 innings of a 13-0 road loss.

Lance McCullers has been brilliant as a rookie.  He has gone 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP with 40 strikeouts in 36 innings for the Astros.  McCullers faced Elias in that June 14th game, pitching five shutout innings to get the win in the 13-0 triumph.

Houston is 9-0 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after four or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are 0-8 in their last eight home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Seattle is 0-7 in Elias' last seven home starts.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Astros Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+102)

After losing the first three games of this series to the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to avoid the sweep tonight.  I like their chances to win this game by multiple runs due to the massive edge they have on the mound.

Zach Greinke has posted NL Cy Young-caliber numbers to this point.  He has gone 5-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.969 WHIP over 13 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in eight home starts.  Greinke sports a 2.91 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas as well.

Anthony Ranuado has made just one start this season for Texas, and it was a horrible one.  He gave up six earned runs and eight base runners over 1 2/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to the Angels on April 15th.  I expect he'll get roughed up by this potent Dodgers' lineup today as well.

Greinke is 13-2 against the run line (+13.7 Units) after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Dodgers are winning in this spot by an average of 3.2 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/White Sox OVER 8

The books have set the bar way too low in this contest between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox today.  This game will be played under AL rules with a designated hitter.  It will also be a match-up between two terrible starting pitchers in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

Jeff Locke has gone 3-3 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Pirates.  While he has been great at home, it has been a different story on the road.  Indeed, Locke is 1-2 with an 8.37 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in five starts away from home this year.

John Danks has been terrible for years now.  He is having an awful 2015 campaign as well.  Danks has gone 3-6 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.529 WHIP over 12 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in five home starts.

Locke is 10-0 OVER (+10.1 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  Locke is 7-0 OVER (+7.1 Units) after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  Locke is 8-0 OVER (+8.2 Units) in road games after a win over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +120

I look for the Boston Red Sox to finally turn the corner now that they put an end to their seven-game losing streak with an emphatic 9-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves yesterday.  They should not be underdogs in Game 3 of this series tonight as it shifts to Atlanta.

Joe Kelly hasn't pitched great this season, but I believe he is a better starter than Alex Wood.  Plus, Kelly has pitched much better here of late in going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts against Texas, Toronto and Oakland.  Now he faces a weak Atlanta lineup under NL rules with no DH. Kelly is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta, allowing just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings. 

Alex Wood is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Wood has gone 4-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  While the left-hander has been solid on the road, he has been terrible at home.  Indeed, Wood is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in four home starts this year.

Kelly is 10-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last eight interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Boston is 60-26 in its last 86 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are 6-1 in Kelly's last seven starts as an underdog.  The Braves are 0-5 in Wood's last five starts as a favorite, and 0-5 in his last five home starts.  Take the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have played in an extremely low-scoring series to this point.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 through the first five games and would be 4-0-1 if not for overtime.  Yet, the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it in Game 6 tonight.

These teams have combined for 196, 174, 187, 185 and 195 points at the end of regulation in the first five games, respectively.  That's an average of 187.4 combined points per game, which roughly 7 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  That's giving us seven points of value on the UNDER tonight.

Yes, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 5, but the Cavaliers inexplicably played small ball and didn't give Timofey Mozgov enough minutes despite the huge game that he had in Game 4.  They cannot go small ball against the Warriors, who excel at it.  Look for head coach David Blatt to get back to playing the kind of big ball that helped them to a 2-1 series lead.

That will help lead to an even lower-scoring Game 6.  Plus, this game will be played in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers will control the tempo when playing at home.  They want to slow this thing down to a snail's pace with Lebron James eating up the shotclock with the ball in his hands to shorten the game.

Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 38-17-1 in Cavaliers last 56 games when playing on one days' rest.  Golden State is 9-1 UNDER after three consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +121

We are getting one of the best teams in baseball at an excellent price today as the Washington Nationals are nice-sized road underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Nationals will bounce back from their Game 1 loss to the Rays yesterday with a victory in Game 2.

Tanner Roark was the odd man out in the rotation at the start of the season despite a brilliant 2014 campaign.  Well, he has found himself back in the rotation due to injuries to a couple of Washington starters.  Roark has performed well, going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.236 WHIP over 43 2/3 innings pitched.

He is clearly a better starter than Alex Colome, who is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Colome is 3-2 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is also 1-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in four home starts.  I'll gladly fade him today.

Washington is 25-11 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last three seasons.  The Nationals are 25-10 in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Washington is 7-0 in Roark's last seven starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  The Nationals are 8-2 in Roark's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rays are 0-4 in Colome's last four starts.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -105

After losing back-to-back games to the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend, I look for the Kansas City Royals (34-25) to get back in the win column Monday against the lowly Milwaukee Brewers, who are just 24-40 on the season.

The Royals have the clear edge on the mound behind Edinson Volquez, who is 5-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Volquez has proven to be a huge addition to the Royals' rotation this year, and he allowed just one earned run over seven innings in his last start against Minnesota.

Kyle Lohse has been one of the worst starters in baseball in 2015.  The right-hander is 3-7 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 13 starts this year, including 2-4 with an 8.41 ERA and 1.614 WHIP in seven home starts.  Lohse is also 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.916 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Royals are 38-17 in their last 55 during game 1 of a series.  Kansas City is 8-1 in its last nine interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 6-1 in Volquez's last seven starts.  The Brewers are 8-23 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Kansas City is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have played in a very low-scoring series up to this point.  All four games would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and Game 2 even went under with overtime.  The oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for Game 5, and we'll take advantage.

These teams have combined for 196, 174, 187 and 185 points at the end of regulation in the first four games, respectively.  That's an average of 185.5 combined points per game, which is exactly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  So, we are getting 10 points of value on the UNDER here.

I just don't foresee Game 5 being high-scoring.  The Cavaliers have been woeful offensively, shooting 41.5%, 32.2%, 46.1% and 33.0% in their four games.  But they've become a defensive juggernaut with their new lineup due to injuries, limiting the Warriors to 44.3%, 39.8%, 40.0% and 46.8% in the four games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 74-27 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  Golden State is 14-4 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  The UNDER is 69-27-2 in Cavaliers last 98 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors last six Sunday games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -134

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays, I look for the Chicago White Sox to avoid the sweep in Game 3 and pick up a win.  They send their ace to the mound in Chris Sale, who is on a historic run here of late.

Sale (6-2, 3.04 ERA) has allowed one run and 12 hits in 22 2/3 innings in his last three outings.  With 49 strikeouts in his last four, Sale became the first White Sox pitcher to fan at least 10 in as many contests.  He is 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA in two career starts at Tampa Bay.

Nate Karns has been slid for the Rays at 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 starts, but he has actually struggled at home.  The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven road starts this year.  Karns allowed six earned runs and three homers over five innings of a 5-10 loss to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

Tampa Bay is 7-22 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 6-1 in Sale's last seven starts.  The Rays are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a home underdog.  Take the White Sox Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8.5

Two of the more potent offenses in baseball square off against two of the worst starting pitchers in the game tonight when the New York Yankees take on the Baltimore Orioles.  The Yankees have scored six or more runs in four of their last eight, while the Orioles have scored five or more in four of their last five, including 17 the past two days alone.

Bud Norris has gone 2-4 with an 8.63 ERA and 1.763 WHIP in seven starts this year for the Orioles.  He has gone 4-1 in spite of a 4.02 ERA in six career starts against New York.  In two starts against the Yankees this season, Norris has allowed 7 earned runs over 8 1/3 innings.

C.C. Sabathia continues to struggle in 2015 as he is clearly on the downside of his career.  The left-hander is 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Sabathia has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts against Baltimore, including 4 or more in four of the last five.

The OVER is 20-8-1 in Yankees last 29 games following a loss.  The OVER is 21-10-2 in Sabathia's last 33 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The OVER is 14-4 in Sabathia's last 18 starts as a road favorite.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Norris' last eight starts overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals +101

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory right now after losing 10 of their last 13 games overall.  The Milwaukee Brewers, meanwhile, are overvalued right now due to winning five of their last seven.

There's no way the Nationals should be underdogs today with the edge they have on the mound.  Jordan Zimmerman is 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts this season.  He was 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his previous four starts before allowing four runs in Sunday's 6-3 loss to the Cubs.

Zimmerman has never lost to the Brewers, going 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.206 WHIP In five career starts against them.  The Nationals are a perfect 5-0 in those five games.  He'll be opposed by Mike Fiers, who is 2-6 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in six home starts.

Fiers is 0-6 (-7.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  The Nationals are 27-5 in Zimmermann's last 32 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Washington is 40-12 in Zimmermann's last 52 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nationals Friday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -138

The Houston Astros are absolutely reeling right now.  They have lost seven straight games to come back down to reality following an improbable start.  Their offense has been held to two runs or fewer in six of the seven losses.

I look for Houston's offense to struggle against the best starter in the American League today.  Felix Hernandez is 9-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in five road starts.  He is well on his way to winning the Cy Young Award.

Hernandez has owned the Astros, going 3-2 with a 1.84 ERA in seven career starts against them.  He'll be up against Brett Oberholtzer, who is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 2.083 WHIP in three starts this year.  He has allowed 25 base runners in 12 innings and is lasting an average of only 4 innings per start.

The Mariners are 29-10 in Hernandez's last 39 starts overall, including 5-0 in his last five road starts.  The Astros are 47-99 in their last 146 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Roll with the Mariners Friday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -120

The Detroit Tigers should be much heavier home favorites over the Cleveland Indians today.  The Tigers come in motivated after having lost nine of their last 12 games overall.  Now, they send ace David Price to the mound to get back on track.

Price has gone 5-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  Price is 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cleveland.

Price has allowed just two earned runs over 20 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Indians.  He has given up one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts against them.  Danny Salazar is a quality starter who is 6-1 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 starts this year, but he's no Price.

The Indians are 10-21 in their last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 17-35 in its last 52 during Game 1 of a series.  The Tigers are 7-0 in Price's last seven starts during game 1 of a series.  Detroit is 6-0 in Price's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 11-1 in Price's last 12 starts vs. AL Central foes.  These last three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing Detroit.  Take the Tigers Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

Down 2-1 heading into Game 4, the Golden State Warriors know that they need a victory or this series is likely over.  I fully expect them to get it.  The first three games could have gone either way as all three were within five points at the end of regulation.

Draymond Green said it best yesterday in a press conference.  His team needs to play harder and with a sense of urgency, and I believe you will see that from the Warriors in Game 4 after seemingly losing the battle to get every loose ball in Game 3.  They will come to play tonight.

The Cavaliers being up 2-1 is certainly a surprise to most.  Obviously, they are going to show up again in Game 4, but I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency as much as they have the past two games, and as much as the Warriors will be tonight.

The Warriors were down 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the conference semifinals.  It was the same situation as this as they lost Game 2 and Game 3.  They went on to win the next three games in blowout fashion.  The Grizzlies are a similar physical team to the Cavaliers, and the Warriors made the proper adjustments in that series, and I believe they will in this series as well.

Golden State is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +138

The Colorado Rockies should not be underdogs to the Miami Marlins today with the edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage of this line mistake and back the Rockies, who just took two out of three from the Cardinals and are feeling good about themselves.

The Rockies have actually played their best baseball on the road this season as they are 14-13 away from home.  Chris Rusin has quietly been dominant this season, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over 18 2/3 innings pitched.  He faced the Marlins on June 6th in his last turn, giving up just two earned runs while striking out eight batters in 7 innings of a 10-5 home win.

David Phelps started the season very strong, but he has been terrible of late.  Phelps is 0-3 with an 8.27 ERA in his last four starts. He faced the Rockies in that same game against Rusin.  But Phelps gave up a career high-tying nine runs and a career-worst 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of that 10-5 loss.

Colorado is 9-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.  The Rockies are 20-10 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.  Phelps is 0-7 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter in his career.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Phelps' last five starts.  Take the Rockies Thursday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -101

After losing the first two games of this series to the Kansas City Royals to fall out of first place in the AL Central, there's no question that the Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory today to avoid the three-game sweep.

The Twins send underrated starter Kyle Gibson to the mound today to get back on track.  Gibson has gone 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in six home starts.  Gibson is also 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City.

Edinson Volquez has pitched well for the Royals in his first season with them, but he's still not as good of a starter as Gibson.  Volquez is 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 11 starts, but 0-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four road starts this year.

The Twins are 4-1 in their last five after losing the first two games of a series.  Minnesota is 16-5 in its last 21 games as a home underdog.  The Twins are 8-2 in Gibson's last 10 starts during Game 3 of a series.  Minnesota is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts as a home underdog.  Roll with the Twins Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -134

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Brewers while scoring a combined one run in those two contests.  Now, they look to avoid the sweep at home.

I like Pittsburgh's chances of getting after Kyle Lohse, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year.  Lohse is 3-6 with a 6.59 ERA in 12 starts, including 0-2 with a 10.44 ERA in his last three.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh as well.

Charlie Morton has been exceptional at PNC Park, going 5-2 with a 1.98 ERA in his last 10 starts there.  Morton went 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA during a four-start stretch against the Brewers before giving up five runs in six innings in his last start against them.

The Brewers are 0-6 in Lohse's last six starts during Game 3 of a series.  The Pirates are 18-6 in their last 24 during Game 3 of a series.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 in its last five after losing the first two games of a series.  The Pirates are 11-3 in their last 14 games as a favorite.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Morton's last four home starts.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

15* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -128

After losing the first two games of this series to the Rockies while getting outscored 6-15 in the process, there's no question that the St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3 today.  The Cardinals are 17-4 in their last 21 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.

They send out arguably their best starter in Carlos Martinez, who has gone 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearances in 2015.  Martinez has been virtually untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA in his last four starts while giving up just one earned run.

Martinez has limited opponents to two runs or less in nine of his 11 starts.  He'll be opposed by Chad Bettis, who has actually pitched quite well for the Rockies this season, but it has come in limited action and I just believe he's in line for a reality check today.

St. Louis is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season.  The Cardinals are a perfect 9-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season.  Martinez is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing St. Louis.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.  They may have started to believe the hype that this series was over due to the injuries to the Cavaliers coming into Game 2.

That was a big reason I was on Cleveland last game, but I'm going with the Warriors in Game 3.  They will be the ones who come out and play with a sense of urgency tonight that they haven't played with yet in this series.  Meanwhile, there's no way the Cavs can match the effort they played with on Sunday.

Stephen Curry and the rest of the Warriors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2.  They shot just 39.8% from the field with Curry going 5-for-23.  Steve Kerr will make the proper adjustments, and I look for the Warriors to get back to playing their up-tempo ways that have made them the best offensive team in the league all season.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +116

Any time you get the chance to back NL Cy Young contender Max Scherzer as an underdog you should certainly take advantage.  That's the opportunity the oddsmakers have presented us tonight as the Nationals take on the Yankees.

Washington will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing eight of their last 10 games overall.  New York comes into this game overvalued due to having won six straight coming in.

Scherzer has been dominant in his first season in Washington, going 6-4 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 11 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 0.79 ERA in five starts away from home.  His counterpart, Masahiro Tanaka, has gone 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in two home starts.

Scherzer is 57-23 (+24.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.  Washington is 35-12 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  Scherzer is 40-13 (+19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -105

The Minnesota Twins continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite being 33-23 on the season.  They should be bigger favorites at home today against the Kansas City Royals.

Phil Hughes hasn't pitched as well as last year, but he is 3-1 with a 1.244 WHIP in five home starts this year and is unlucky to have a 5.17 ERA to go with it.  Hughes has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his last 11 starts against the Royals.

Jason Vargas hasn't been any better than Hughes this year, going 4-2 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four road starts.  Vargas has faced the Twins twice already this year, giving up 9 earned runs and 20 base runners over 8 2/3 innings for a 9.34 ERA.

Kansas City is 0-6 (-7.5 Units) against the money line after a one run win this season.  Minnesota is 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less two straight games this season.  The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall.  The Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Minnesota is 15-4 in Hughes' last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Twins Monday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 represent my favorite play of the entire NBA postseason up to this point.  This is a must-win game for them as they cannot afford to go back to Cleveland down 0-2 if they want to win this series.

There is some serious value in getting the Cavs as 8-point underdogs here.  They were only 6-point dogs in Game 1 and forced overtime.  Now, we are getting an extra two points with them only because Kyrie Irving is out for the series after getting injured in Game 1.

Well, the Cavaliers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They have heard the noise through the media that this series is over because Irving is out.  You can bet that Lebron James and company will be using that noise as motivation in Game 2 here tonight.

Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team  (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins +102

The Miami Marlins have started to show some life here over the past week.  They have won three of their last four and I like their chances of picking up a victory in Game 3 of this series with the Colorado Rockies to take the series Sunday.

I'll gladly fade Kyle Kendrick, who is 2-7 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in 11 starts for the Rockies this year.  Kendrick is 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in four home starts.

The Rockies are 36-74 in their last 110 Sunday games.  Colorado is 1-6 in Kendrick's last 7 starts.  The Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the Marlins Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -109

Off three straight losses, including two by exactly one run, the Los Angeles Angels are clearly motivated for a victory today.  I believe they'll get it against the New York Yankees tonight to get back on track.

Garrett Richards is a great story.  He came out of nowhere to produce an excellent season last year.  He has pretty much picked up right where he left off, going 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year.  He has allowed 4 earned runs in 15 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees as well.

Adam Warren has been better than expected for the Yankees this year.  But as a result, he his overvalued right now.  Warren is 3-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 10 starts.  While he has been solid, he's not nearly on the level of Richards talent-wise.  I'll gladly fade him today.

The Angels are 10-3 in Richards' last 13 starts as a road favorite.  Los Angeles is 22-8 in Richard's last 30 starts overall.  The Yankees are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

20* AL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +117

The Baltimore Orioles put an end to a five-game losing streak with a huge 3-2 win over the Houston Astros and Dallas Keuchel yesterday.  I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Cleveland Indians Friday.

Chris Tillman has been the ace of Baltimore's staff for the past couple seasons.  He is off to a tough start in 2015, but that has him undervalued at this point in the season.  I have no doubt he's going to rebound, and he has started to by allowing two or fewer runs in two of his past three starts.

There's no way the Indians should be favored with washed-up starter Shaun Marcum on the mound tonight.  Marcum has been atrocious as a starter this season, going 2-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in three starts.  In his lone home start, he allowed 7 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

Marcum is 9-23 (-15.6 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 in his career.  Tillman is 17-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 23-10 in Tillman's last 33 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting little respect heading into this series.  They are +200 underdogs to win the series, and 6-point underdogs in Game 1.  I believe the value is clearly with the Cavaliers in this one.

While I agree with the Warriors being favored in Game 1 and for the series, I just feel that this number is too big.  The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season, but they don't have a single player on their 15-man roster that has ever been to the NBA Finals.  Nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1.

The Cavaliers have a tremendous leader in Lebron James who will be going to his 5th straight NBA Finals.  His confidence and temperament will rub off on his teammates in Game 1. 

While the Cavs did get to go through an easy Eastern Conference to get here, you cannot ignore the fact that they are 46-11 since mid-January.  They have won seven straight playoff games over the Bulls and Hawks, which is no small feat, either.

Cleveland is 24-10 ATS off five straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  It has morphed into an elite defensive team in these playoffs.  Holding the Hawks to less than 42% shooting for four straight games is mighty impressive.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -105

After two straight excruciating one-run losses to the Phillies as their bullpen blew saves late in both games, I look for the Cincinnati Reds to come back highly motivated for a victory today.  They'll avoid the sweep and take Game 3 against the lowly Phillies in this one.

Anthony Descalfini has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  He has gone 3-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five road starts.

Aaron Harang has gotten off to a brilliant start for Philadelphia, but it's nothing more than fool's gold.  The veteran right-hander is far past his prime and will not be able to live up to the 2.02 ERA and 0.995 WHIP he has posted up to this point the rest of the way.

The Reds are 47-23 in their last 70 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Phillies are 7-18 in their last 25 during game 3 of a series.  Philadelphia is 1-8 in its last 9 Thursday games.  The Phillies are 1-4 in Harang's last 5 starts.  Take the Reds Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -128

The Cleveland Indians are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and have a chance to get back to .500 with a win Wednesday.  Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals have gone 1-6 in their last seven contests while scoring two or fewer runs in all six losses.

The Indians should have no problem continuing their recent surge with ace Corey Kluber on the mound.  The 2014 AL Cy Young winner has been nothing short of spectacular here of late.  He has gone 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just 5 earned runs in 32 innings while striking out 50 batters.

Jason Vargas has really struggled in 2015.  The left-hander is 3-2 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in six starts this season.  Vargas has posted a 4.86 ERA in 11 career starts against Cleveland, while Kluber sports a 3.48 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 career starts against Kansas City.

The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 Wednesday games.  The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Cleveland is 6-2 in its last 8 trips to Kansas City.  Bet the Indians Wednesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -125

The Cleveland Indians are playing their best baseball of the season heading into Game 1 of this series with the Kansas City Royals. They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  I look for them to stay red hot with the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Carlos Carrasco is having another fine season after closing last year with a bang.  The right-hander has gone 6-4 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 10 starts with 66 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings. Carrasco has given up just 6 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals for a 2.49 ERA.

Jeremy Guthrie has been atrocious in 2015.  He has gone 4-3 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in nine starts.  He gave up 11 earned runs and four homers to the Yankees in his last start.  Guthrie does not enjoy facing the Indians, going 5-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.514 WHIP In 12 career starts against them.  He has given up 15 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland for a 9.20 ERA.

Cleveland is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.  The Indians are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  The Royals are 1-5 in their last six games overall.  Kansas City is 1-7 in its last eight games as a home dog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Indians Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Clayton Kershaw hasn't pitched the NL Cy Young & MVP Award level that he did last year.  He's just 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  However, it's only a matter of time before he returns to his dominant old self.

Kershaw is coming off arguably his best start of the season against the Braves.  He pitched seven shutout innings while allowing just four base runners and striking out 10 in an 8-0 victory on May 26th.  Look for him to build off that start tonight.

Kyle Kendrick is no match for Kershaw.  The right-hander has gone 2-6 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field.  Kendrick is 3-8 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in 12 career starts against Los Angeles.

What really intrigues me about this play is Kershaw's recent performances against Colorado.  The left-hander is 15-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 29 career starts against the Rockies.  In fact, the Dodgers are 11-1 against the run line in Kershaw's last 12 starts against Colorado, winning 11 of those 12 starts by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* Tigers/Angels ESPN Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit -105

The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a win tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  They have lost the first three games of this series to the Angels, and now they want to try and avoid the sweep by winning Game 4 tonight.

I like their chances with ace David Price on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five road starts.  Price is 4-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

Matt Shoemaker gets the ball for the Angels.  He has really struggled this season at 3-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine starts, including 0-3 with a 6.20 ERA in four home starts.  He has already allowed a whopping 13 homers in 51 1/3 innings, including 8 homers in 20 1/3 innings at home.

Detroit is 9-1 in Price's 10 starts this season, including 6-0 in his last six starts.  The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games after losing the first 3 games of a series.  The Angels are 0-5 in Shoemaker's last five home starts.  Los Angeles is 1-10 in its last 11 Sunday games.  Bet the Tigers Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -107

The San Diego Padres should be much bigger home favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates today.  We took advantage and backed them yesterday, and we'll take advantage again today with Tyson Ross on the mound.

Ross has gotten off to a slow start this season, which has him undervalued right now.  He's still 2-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 10 starts, which is respectable, but not up to his talent level.  Ross is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh.

Charlie Morton is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now.  He is no more than a fill-in starter for Pittsburgh as he has made just one start this season.  This will be his second start of the year and I don't like his chances against Ross and the Padres.

San Diego is 20-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Pirates are 6-18 in their last 24 games as a road underdog.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a road underdog.  The Pirates are 24-52 in Morton's last 76 starts as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in Morton's last 7 road starts.  The Padres are 8-2 in Ross' last 10 home starts.  Bet the Padres Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +137

The San Francisco Giants are getting way too much respect from oddsdmakers tonight as big home favorites against the Atlanta Braves.  I'll gladly back the Braves at this price as they clearly have the better starting pitcher on the mound despite being dogs.

Mike Foltynewicz has gone 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings this season.  He has posted a 2.70 ERA in his lone road start this year.  This will be his first career start against the Giants, which will be an advantage for him.  He gave up just one earned run and four base runners in 7 2/3 innings in his last start against Milwaukee.

Tim Hudson should never be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  Hudson has gone 2-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three.

Atlanta is 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 4 or less hits this season.  After getting shut out yesterday, the Braves will come back motivated to get after Hudson today.  The Giants are 1-5 in Hudson's last six starts as a favorite.  Take the Braves.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -104

Getting ace James Shields and the San Diego Padres at nearly even money tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  I'll take advantage and back the Padres, who will be motivated to bounce back from an 11-5 loss to the Pirates yesterday.

Shields hasn't lost in 2015, going 6-0 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.204 WHIP over 10 starts.  He has a whopping 82 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings pitched, which is a clear sign that he's been tough to hit.  Shields is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Francisco Liriano has pitched well for the Pirates also, going 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in nine starts.  However, he has faltered here of late, going 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against the Mets, Twins and Phillies.

Shields is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last two seasons.  Liriano is 7-14 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Liriano's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Pittsburgh is 2-8 in Liriano's last 10 starts overall.  Bet the Padres Friday.

15* Tigers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -104

The Los Angeles Angels should be heavy favorites today against the Detroit Tigers with the advantage that they have on the mound in this one.  They hung 12 runs on the Tigers yesterday and should stay red hot at the plate today.

Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  He has gone 3-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in nine starts, including 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in five home starts.  Santiago has posted a 2.17 ERA in five career starts against Detroit as well.

Anibal Sanchez has been atrocious this season, going 3-5 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 10 starts.  His confidence has to have taken a hit after his last two starts.  He has allowed 14 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings while also yielding 5 homers in losses to the Brewers and Astros.

The Tigers are 2-7 in Sanchez's last nine starts.  The Angels are 47-22 in their last 69 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Angels are 42-14 in their last 56 home meetings with Detroit, and 14-3 in their last 17 meetings overall.  Roll with the Angels Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres +116

After an unbelievable start to the 2015 season, A.J. Burnett is easily one of the most overvalued starting pitchers in the league right now.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are actually favored on the road against the San Diego Padres today.

Burnett cannot possibly keep this up the rest of the year.  This is the same guy that went 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 34 starts last season for the Phillies.  Burnett is 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.534 WHIP in 11 career starts against San Diego.

Ian Kennedy is undervalued after a poor start to 2015.  He went 13-13 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 33 starts for San Diego last year, and he'll get it turned around soon.  Kennedy is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in eight career starts against Pittsburgh.  In two start against the Pirates last year, he allowed just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.

Burnett is 12-44 (-32.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997.  The Pirates are 3-14 in Burnett's last 17 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Padres are 10-3 in Kennedy's last 13 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.   Bet the Padres Thursday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-130)

The Atlanta Braves are massive road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers on the money line today.  While I was tempted to go with the money line, I believe the smart play is to take them on the run line in a game that has an excellent chance of being decided by a single run.

This game is expected to be a low-scoring, pitcher's duel with the two studs that are on the mound tonight.  I trust in Alex Wood to put forth one of his best efforts of the season tonight against Zach Greinke and the Dodgers.

Wood has gone 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in eight starts this year.  He has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts away from home.  In his lone career start against the Dodgers last year, Wood allowed one earned run in 7 innings of a 2-3 loss in L.A.

Atlanta is 371-174 against the run line (+77.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (ATLANTA) - bad offensive team (4.1 runs/game or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 229-132 (63.4%, +82.6 units) since 1997.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216.5

The UNDER was 3-0 in the first three meetings in this series.  These teams combined for 216, 197 and 195 points in the first three games.  After a huge output in Game 4 where they combined for 243 points, I believe the value is back with the UNDER in Game 5 with this 216.5-point total.

The Rockets had by far their best offensive output of the season in Game 4.  They shot 56.6% from the field and scored 128 points.  Golden State coach Steve Kerr was obviously furious about his team's effort defensively.  Look for the Warriors to be show much more tenacity on that end of the floor at home in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996.

Golden State is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 27-9 UNDER after playing a game as a road favorite this season.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Warriors last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks showed some fight in Game 3 and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to overtime.  They aren't going to give in in Game 4, and I like their chances of staying within 7.5 points of the Cavs in this elimination game.

Kevin Love is obviously out, but Kyrie Irving missed last game and is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury.  The Cavs would be wise to let him rest another game considering they are up 3-0 in this series.

What really could hurt the Cavaliers is that Lebron James is as sore as he's been all season.  "I'm feeling all right," he said, forcing a smile that showed he wasn't being entirely truthful. "I've been better, but I've been worse. I think I've been worse."

Atlanta is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  It is coming back to win by an average of 16.2 points per game in this spot.  The Hawks are also 15-3 ATS when playing with double revenge against an opponent this season.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -107

We are getting the Baltimore Orioles at a tremendous price at home against the Houston Astros today.  We are getting them at nearly even money, a sign that the Astros are way overvalued right now due to their great start to the season.

Chris Tillman isn't having nearly as good a season as he did last year, but he's being undervalued as a result.  He's 2-5 with a 5.22 ERA in eight starts.  I like Tillman's chances of bouncing back tonight considering he's 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.

Scott Feldman hasn't been any better than Tillman this year.  Feldman is 3-4 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in nine starts for Houston.  He is 4-2 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in eight career starts against Baltimore.  Feldman gave up 9 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.

Feldman is 31-61 (-37.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse in his career. The Astros are 3-14 in Feldman's last 17 road starts.  The Orioles are 47-21 in their last 68 home games.  Baltimore is 20-7 in Tillman's last 27 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Orioles Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5

This series is over.  The Golden State Warriors made a statement with a 35-point win in Game 3.  The Rockets also made a statement that they were going to pack it in.  With no motivation now, I look for the Rockets to get blown out again in Game 4.

The Warriors showed that they were vulnerable in losing back-to-back games to Memphis.  However, they have responded in a big way since.  They have now won six straight playoff games with four of those victories coming by 13 points or more.  They are proving that they are the best team in the NBA and that their regular season success was no joke.

Golden State is 24-8 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Golden State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Bet the Warriors Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -127

The Tampa Bay Rays are my favorite play on the bases Monday.  They will be motivated to bounce back from two straight losses over the weekend.  They have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball at 24-21 on the year.

The Rays will get back on track behind their base starter in Jake Odorizzi.  The right-hander has gone 3-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in four home starts.  Odorizzi has faced the Mariners once in his career, pitching six shutout innings of a 2-0 victory last year.

Roenis Elias is 6-17 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Seattle is 0-6 in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 1-6 in Elias' last 7 starts on 4 days of rest.  The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Rays Monday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing solid value as big road underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  Everyone is pretty much looking forward to a Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals, but I guarantee the Hawks have different ideas even after losing the first two games of this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Atlanta is 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge, two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  While everyone is counting them out, I believe the Hawks have other plans tonight.  Bet Atlanta in Game 3 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +121

The San Diego Padres couldn't possibly be more motivated for a victory than they are tonight.  They have lost four straight and seven of eight coming into this game with the L.A. Dodgers.  They certainly won't be lacking motivation as a result.

Ace James Shields is gets the ball today.  He hasn't lost yet in 2015, going 5-0 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.248 WHIP through nine starts.  He has struck out a whopping 75 batters in 55 1/3 innings as well, so he's obviously on his game.

Shields is 9-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 4-0 in Shields' last four starts.  Take the Padres Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -122

The Chicago Cubs should be much heavier favorites today against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They lost Game 1 by a single run, and they'll be motivated to bounce back in Game 2.  I like their chances with the edge they have on the mound.

Jake Arrieta is coming off a career year, and he has picked up right where he left off in 2015.  Arrieta has gone 4-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in eight starts with 55 strikeouts over 52 innings of work.

He'll be opposed by Rubby De La Rosa, who has been one of Arizona's best starters, but that's not saying much.  De La Rosa is 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA over eight starts this season.

Arizona is 6-25 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Chicago is 6-1 in its last 7 with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks are 4-24 in their last 28 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Cubs Saturday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on Golden State PK

The Golden State Warriors smell blood in the water.  They are fortunate to be up 2-0 in this series after winning the first two games at home by a combined five points.  They certainly feel like there's no pressure on them now and can come out and play freely tonight.

The Rockets are absolutely devastated.  They had their chances to win the first two games, and now they know that this series is all but over and it's just not their time.  I look for a lackluster effort from them tonight after blowing the first two games down the stretch.

Plays on road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +101

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back "The Dark Knight" as an underdog.  That's the opportunity the oddsmakers have given up Saturday, and we'll take advantage.  The Mets will bounce back from a loss in Game 1 to the Pirates behind their ace.

Matt Harvey has gone 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in four road starts.  He's certainly showing no ill-effects of Tommy John surgery.

A.J. Burnett is having a tremendous season as well, but it's been uncharacteristic for him.  Burnett has really struggled in his last three starts against the Mets, giving up 17 earned runs over 17 innings for a 9.00 ERA, all three of which have come since August of last season.

The Mets are 14-5 in their last 19 during game 2 of a series.  New York is 6-2 in Harvey's last 8 starts overall.  The Pirates are 0-7 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Take the Mets Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Atlanta Hawks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland.  I look for them to get the job done at home tonight and to even this series at one game apiece.

The Cavaliers got an unworldly performance out of J.R. Smith in Game 1 that they're not going to get again.  He scored a career playoff high 28 points in Game 1, connecting on eight 3-pointers.  He single-handedly won the opener for them.

Atlanta really did not play well in Game 1, which was a rarity for the Hawks at home.  They still had their chances in an 88-97 loss, but Smith's surge proved to be too much.  The Hawks are 40-8 at home this season, so I just cannot foresee them losing back-to-back games on their home floor.

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +104

The San Francisco Giants are in a massive letdown spot here.  They just swept the Los Angeles Dodgers last series.  What was so remarkable about the sweep is that the Dodgers didn't score a single run in three games.  It's only human nature for the Giants to have a letdown following such a big accomplishment against their biggest rivals.

The Giants will send the embattled Ryan Vogelsong to the mound.  Vogelsong is 2-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.487 WHIP over six starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has been terrible on the road, going 1-2 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in three starts away from home.

Kyle Kendrick is pitching much better of late in allowing 3 earned runs over 14 innings in back-to-back road starts against the Dodgers and Angels.  Vogelsong has been crushed in his last two starts at Colorado.  He has given up 13 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts at Coors Field.

Kendrick is 25-10 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher in his career.  The Giants are 1-7 in Vogelsong's last eight road starts.  San Francisco is 0-5 in Vogelsong's last five starts as a road favorite.  The Giants are 0-5 in Vogelsong's last five starts against Colorado.  Take the Rockies Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-112)

The Washington Nationals get the call today against the Philadelphia Phillies.  Instead of laying heavy -270 juice to back the Nationals on the money line, I'm going to save a ton of juice and take them on the run line in this one.

The Nationals are 17-4 in their last 21 games overall.  A whopping 10 of their last 12 wins have come by 2 runs or more.  Max Scherzer is 4-3 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Scherzer is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan gets the ball for the Phillies.  The right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts this year, including 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one road start, which was a 7-2 loss at Washington against Scherzer on April 17th.  O'Sullivan is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Washington.

Scherzer is 8-0 against the run line (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 3-19 against the run line (-15.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +105 to +120 since 1997.  Scherzer is 9-0 against the run line (+9.0 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to -155 over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 220

I'm backing the UNDER tonight in Game 2 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors.  The oddsmakers have once again set the number too high, failing to drop it from the 220-point total they set in Game 1.

These teams combined for 216 points in Game 1, and I expect Game 2 to be even more lower scoring.  Both teams even shot well at 46.5% for Houston and 46.7% for Golden State, yet they still couldn't eclipse the 220-point total.  James Harden and Stephen Curry couldn't miss in Game 1, too.

I believe there is some value with the UNDER in this game.  These teams have played five times this season and have averaged 215 combined points per game, giving us roughly five points of value here.  The UNDER is now 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series.

Golden State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 13-3 UNDER vs. poor free throw shooting teams that make 71% or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Rockets last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 games overall. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +117

The Chicago White Sox had won six in a row before losing the last two to the Indians in this series by a combined three runs.  I look for them to come back motivated to win Game 4 tonight and even this series.

We are getting the White Sox at an excellent price here due to the perceived mismatch on the mound.  If anything, the White Sox have the edge behind John Danks, who is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in three home starts this year.  He is also 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts overall.

Danny Salazar is a big-time talent, but it hasn't transferred into the majors as he has been unable to consistently hold down a spot in Cleveland's rotation.  Salazar is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four road starts, and 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in his last three starts overall.  The right-hander is also 2-1 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.

Cleveland is 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Danks is 7-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  The White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Chicago is 4-0 in Danks' last 4 home starts.  These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago.  Take the White Sox Thursday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta PK

The Atlanta Hawks have won three out of four meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers this season with all three victories coming by eight points or more.  They earned the #1 seed in the East, yet they are getting treated like they aren't the best team in the East already in Game 1 as they are only a pick 'em at home.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Hawks, who have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-7 at home this year where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with Cleveland.

Cleveland's team defense will really be tested in this game.  They could focus in on Derrick Rose last series, but they can't focus in on any one Atlanta player.  Defensively, the Hawks actually have a stopper in DeMarre Carroll who can guard Lebron James as well as about anyone.  They can focus their defense on James and Kyrie Irving.

Cleveland is 4-14 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.   The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +118

The Los Angeles Angels should not be underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays today considering the big edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage and back the Angels at an excellent price as +118 underdogs.

Jered Weaver has been virtually untouchable in his last two starts.  He has beaten both the Astros and Orioles while allowing just one earned run and 10 base runners over 16 1/3 innings for a minuscule 0.55 ERA.  Weaver is 9-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 12 career starts against Toronto.

Drew Hutchison has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  Yes, he's 3-0, but that's all luck with run support because he has posted a 6.17 ERA and 1.512 WHIP through eight starts.  Hutchison is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.

The Angels are 53-24 in their last 77 vs. a team with a losing record.  Weaver is 90-44 (+32.9 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.  The Angels are 44-19 in their last 63 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Toronto is 1-6 in its last seven games overall.  Take the Angels Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -10

The Houston Rockets have had only one day of rest following their Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  They haven't had ample time to prepare for Golden State, and they will be at a disadvantage because of it.

Even though this is the Western Conference Finals, I believe this is a letdown spot for the Rockets.  They came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers last series, and it's only human nature for them to take a little extra time to celebrate and to not come out with their best effort in Game 1.

Golden State, meanwhile, has had three days off since putting away Memphis 108-95 on the road in Game 6.  The Warriors have been fast starters in their two series.  They beat the Pelicans 106-99 in Game 1 of their first series in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They also beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series.

Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest.  These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Golden State.  Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -122

The Miami Marlins are hungry for a victory.  They have lost four straight and seven of eight coming in, which has led to the firing of manager Mike Redmond.  New skipper Dan Jennings was a 2-3 loser in his debut yesterday in extra innings, but I believe he gets his first win today due to the edge the Marlins have on the mound.

Tom Koehler has gone 2-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance in 2015.  What I really like about Koehler is how well he has pitched at home.  He is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in three home starts this year.

Jeremy Hellickson's career has been in a downward spiral over the past three seasons.  It hasn't gotten any better in Arizona this year.  Hellickson is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in seven starts in 2015.  He has posted a 5.59 ERA and 2.070 WHIP in two career starts against Miami.

Hellickson is 2-14 (-13.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.  Hellickson is 0-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Marlins are 4-1 in Koehler's last 5 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on St. Louis Cardinals -113

After losing in 14 innings to the New York Mets last night to drop their third game in four days, the St. Louis Cardinals will come back motivated for a victory tonight.  I like their chances with the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Michael Wacha has been one of the most underrated starters in the majors since he came into the league a few years ago.  Wacha has gone 5-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.069 WHIP In four road starts.  He sports a 2.81 ERA in three career starts against New York.

Jon Niese is having a solid season for the Mets at 3-3 with a 2.49 ERA.  However, he has been one of the luckiest starters in the league.  He has that low ERA in spite of a below-average 1.385 WHIP on the season.  He even has a 1.35 ERA in spite of a 1.450 WHIP in three home starts.  He's not going to continue getting away with putting so many runners on base without allowing runs.

The Cardinals are 11-1 in Wacha's last 12 starts overall, including a perfect 7-0 in his seven starts this season.  St. Louis is 40-15 in its last 55 starts as a favorite.  The Mets are 0-8 in their last eight games as an underdog.  New York is 2-9 in Niese's last 11 starts as a dog.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Cardinals/Mets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -124

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Matt Harvey and the New York Mets at this short of a price at home all season.  I'll take advantage and back them against the St. Louis Cardinals on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball tonight.

Harvey has shown no ill-effects of injury as he's clearly fully recovered.  He has gone 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three.  Harvey sports a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis as well.

John Lackey has pitched pretty well for St. Louis this season, going 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in seven starts.  However, he has been much better at home than on the road.  Lackey is 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.471 WHIP through three road starts in 2015.

The Mets are a sensational 14-1 (+12.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.  New York is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season.  Take this combined 23-1 system backing New York straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the Mets Monday.

15* Tigers/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -144

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tigers, including yesterday's 4-3 loss in 10 innings, I expect the St. Louis Cardinals to avoid the sweep and win Game 3 tonight at home.

Lance Lynn had the best season of his career last year and is quietly becoming one of the better starters in the National League.  He has picked up where he left off this season, going 2-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in seven starts.  He has struck out 51 batters in 41 1/3 innings as well.

Alfredo Simon is off to a solid start for Detroit, going 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in seven starts.  However, he has been great at home, but terrible on the road.  Simon has posted a 4.77 ERA in four road starts in 2015.

St. Louis is 31-9 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 straight games without a stolen base over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 39-12 in their last 51 home games.  Lynn is 15-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2

After giving away Game 6, many have counted out the Los Angeles Clippers.  However, the oddsmakers believe they'll bounce back and come up clutch in Game 7 by listing them as the favorite, and I couldn't agree more.

Doc Rivers is one of the best head coaches in the league.  He will get his players to respond in a big way today, just as he did in the first round when the Clippers trailed the Spurs 3-2 and had to win Game 6 on the road to extend the series.  They obviously went on to win Game 7 at home as well.

Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-14 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  Los Angeles is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks +100

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing excellent value as road underdogs to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.  They'll be motivated from blowing a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning yesterday to hand the Phillies their third consecutive victory, which has them overvalued.

Arizona has a massive edge on the mound in this game behind the underrated Archie Bradley.  The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed just four earned runs and nine hits in 20 innings of work.

Jerome Williams is one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in seven starts this season for Philadelphia, including 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA in his last three.

Philadelphia is 13-31 (-23.9 Units) against the money line after three straight wins by two runs or less since 1997.  Arizona is 4-0 in Bradley's last four starts.  The Phillies are 0-9 in their last nine during Game 2 of a series.  Philadelphia is 4-14 in its last 18 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -119

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a massive edge on the mound tonight, and they should be much bigger road favorites over the lowly Philadelphia Phillies as a result.  Philly is just 13-23 on the season, hitting .232 and scoring 2.9 runs per game.  Arizona is hitting .268 and scoring 4.9 runs per game this year.

Chase Anderson has been the clearly ace of Arizona's staff this year.  He has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.101 WHIP over six starts in 2015.  Anderson has been at his best on the road, sporting a 1.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts away from home.

Chad Billingsley is washed up and wouldn't make most rotations in the majors.  The right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two starts this season. allowing 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 innings of work.

Philadelphia is 6-19 (-15.4 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games following a win.  Philadelphia is 1-7 in its last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Phillies are 4-14 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 198

After going over the total in three of four games to open this series, the Hawks and Wizards played in a very low scoring Game 5 that saw just 163 combined points.  I look for Game 6 to follow suit in this elimination game that will be played with high defensive intensity.

The longer a series goes on, the lower-scoring it usually gets because teams are so familiar with one another.  Yes, John Wall is back to lead the Wizards' offense, but he is only a shell of himself while playing with a fractured hand.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 59-30 (66.3%) since 1996.

Atlanta is 12-1 to the UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.  The Hawks are 17-5 to the UNDER when leading in a playoff series since 1996.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight Friday games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6.  I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers.

Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively.  They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. 

The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -157

I don't normally lay this much juice in baseball.  However, there are certain situations where it is warranted, and I believe this is one of them.  The Reds have such a huge advantage on the mound over the Giants in this one.

Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young contender year in and year out.  He has gone 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in seven starts, so 2015 has been no exception.  Cueto has been virtually untouchable at home, going 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.591 WHIP in three starts, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 22 innings.

What really excites me is the head-to-head matchup.  Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.96 RA and 0.982 WHIP in six career starts against San Francisco.  Tim Lincecum is 0-4 with a 9.79 ERA and 1.780 WHIP in six career starts against Cincinnati.  Lincecum has allowed a combined 16 earned runs over 8 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.

The Reds are 37-14 in Cueto's last 51 home starts.  Cincinnati is 48-17 in Cueto's last 65 starts with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.  The Reds are 51-19 in Cueto's last 70 starts as a favorite.  The Giants are 0-9 in Lincecum's last nine road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Lincecum's last six road starts.  The Giants are 0-5 in Lincecum's last five starts as a road dog.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Take the Reds Thursday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage.  I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2.

The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury.  The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer.

Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose.  They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points.  They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5.  In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here.

Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season.  The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -102

The New York Yankees are simply overvalued due to their hot 21-13 start to the season.  They should not be the favorites today against the Tampa Bay Rays (18-16), who clearly have the edge on the mound in this one.

Tampa Bay will be giving the ball to Nate Karns, who is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the game with 38 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings.  Karns also sports a 2.79 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in two starts against the Yankees in 2015.

Adam Warren gets the ball for New York.  He has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in six starts.  Warren has been at his worst on the road with a 7.04 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three starts away from home.  Warren has posted a 4.65 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in two starts against Tampa Bay this season.

The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 in its last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 8-3 in their last 11 home games overall.  Take the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -125

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as small home favorites to the Minnesota Twins Tuesday.  The Twins are off to a surprising 18-14 start this season, but they are also overvalued now as a result.

Detroit gives the ball to Alfredo Simon, who has been dominant in the early going.  Simon is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two home starts.  In his lone career start against Minnesota, Simon allowed one earned run over eight innings of an 8-1 victory.

Kyle Gibson has pitched tremendously at home for Minnesota this season, but it has been a different story on the road.  Gibson is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in three road starts in 2015.  Plus, Gibson hates facing the Tigers, as he's 2-4 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.858 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Minnesota is 16-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons.  Simon is 18-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Twins are 0-6 in Gibson's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Tigers Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series.  They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight.

I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series.  Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%.  Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.  Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -144

The Washington Nationals are absolutely rolling right now.  They have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to get to 17-15 on the season and to play up to their potential for the first time all year.  I look for them to add another one in the win column Monday.

Washington sends ace Max Scherzer to the mound tonight.  The right-hander is dominating the National League as expected, going 2-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.937 WHIP with 49 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings.  In his lone career start against Arizona, Scherzer allowed one earned run over 7 innings of a 3-1 victory.

Josh Collmenter is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  While he's one of Arizona's best starters, that really isn't saying much.  Collmenter has gone 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in six starts this season.  He'll be up against a Washington team that has scored 5 or more runs in four straight games coming in.

The Diamondbacks are 16-39 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 15-36 in its last 51 games following a win.  The Diamondbacks are 12-39 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Arizona is 18-42 in its last 60 games as an underdog.  The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Collmenter's last 6 starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4.  They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well.

Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4.  Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose.  Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996.

The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta.  Take the Hawks in Game 4.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Clippers UNDER 217.5

The Clippers and Rockets have gone OVER the total in all three games to open this series.  They've combined for 218, 224 and 223 points.  As a result, the oddsmakers have been forced to set the highest total they have yet this series in Game 4.

That has provided us with a ton of line value to swoop in and back the UNDER tonight.  This 217.5-point total is 5.5 points more than the 212-point Game 1 total.  That fact alone allows you to see that there is value with this UNDER in Game 4.

The defensive intensity in this game will be more than it has been at any other point in the series.  The Rockets are looking at this game like a must-win, while the Clippers realize they can grab a hold of the series with a win to go up 3-1.  I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively as a result.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive overs are 66-29 (69.5%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 41-9 (82%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +117

The Cincinnati Reds should not be underdogs to the Chicago White Sox today in the finale of this interleague series.  They have the better starter on the mound and the better lineup to boot.

Michael Lorenzen is a little-known starter, which is why he gets no respect.  Lorenzen is off to a great start this season, going 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts.  He gave up just one earned run over six innings of a 7-1 victory at Pittsburgh last time out.

John Danks has completely lost it and hasn't been struggling for three years now.  The left-hander is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.540 WHIP over five starts in 2015.  His last start was cut short after he allowed 7 runs, 3 earned, in 2 1/3 innings against the Twins.

The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.  Chicago is 4-11 in Danks' last 15 starts.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Danks' last 7 starts as a favorite.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Danks' last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -109

The Los Angeles Angels should be much heavier home favorites over the Houston Astros tonight.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price here.  You'll rarely get the opportunity to back them as this small of home favorites.

Los Angeles is undervalued right now due to its mediocre 14-16 start to the season.  Meanwhile, Houston is overvalued due to leading the AL West with a 19-11 record.  Well, the Astros have come back down to reality, going 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 8 runs in the process.

Matt Shoemaker is coming off his best start of the season.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings while striking out 10.  All three runs came on solo homers as he only allowed four hits the entire game.  Shoemaker got the win in his lone career starts against Houston last year, giving up 2 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-2 victory.

Dallas Keuchel sports a 4.47 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in eight career starts against Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-2 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Los Angeles is 11-2 in Shoemaker's last 13 starts vs. AL West opponents.  The Astros are 37-77 in their last 114 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Angels Saturday.

20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards.  They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series.

Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss.  It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory.  I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season.

As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall.  Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points.  But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -114

The San Diego Padres should be much bigger favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight with the edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage of this gift from the oddsmakers Friday.  The Padres will be motivated following an 11-0 loss yesterday in Game 1 of this series.

James Shields has made a smooth transition to the National League.  The right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has struck out a whopping 48 batters in 36 1/3 innings.

Jeremy Hellickson doesn't even belong as a starting pitcher in the big leagues.  He is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two home starts.  Hellickson is also 0-1 with a 7.42 ERA in two career starts against San Diego.

Shields is 14-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons.  Shields is 14-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 5-22 (-18.8 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.  Hellickson is 0-9 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Padres Friday.

20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love.  They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series.

The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense."

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems.  It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more.  These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500.  This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs.  Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.