15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +1

Due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 31-8, and entering this game on a 10-game winning streak, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued tonight as road favorites against the Toronto Raptors.  They have also covered nine straight, which has the betting public all over them, and now it's time to fade.

The Toronto Raptors have the third-best record in the East with a 26-12 mark.  They just had second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) return last time out in a 100-84 home win over the 76ers.  DeRozan has missed 21 games this year, and they've still managed to keep it together, but they've clearly been better with him than without him.

The Raptors come into this game undervalued due to having lost five of their last seven games overall while going 1-6 ATS in the process.  The loss of DeRozan was finally catching up to them during this stretch, but now that he's back, look for the Raptors to get back to playing the same dominant basketball they were before it.

Toronto has clearly had Atlanta's number.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Hawks.  They won 96-86 as 7.5-point home favorite in their final meeting of 2013-14.  They won 109-102 as 4.5-point home favorites in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 126-115 as 3.5-point road favorites in their most recent meeting with the Hawks this season.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  Look for Toronto to come out with an inspired effort tonight to try and turn around its fortunes now that DeRozan is back and healthy.  Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic enter this game playing their best basketball of the season.  I have successfully backed them in back-to-back upsets, and I'm going to back them again tonight showing excellent value as 6.5-point home dogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Magic put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 121-114 road win at Chicago as 11.5-point underdogs, then followed that up with a 120-113 home win as 9-point dogs to the Houston Rockets.

The key to the Magic's success is that they have used their young guards in Victor Oladipo and Elfred Payton to push the tempo as this youthful team is clearly at their best when they get out in the open floor.  They have scored 120.5 points per game in their last two wins.

"I think it took time but we've figured out how to play," guard Victor Oladipo said. "Now that we've figured it out, we can't change it."  Oladipo scored a season-high 33 versus Chicago and 32 against the Rockets.  Nikola Vucevic, one of the most underrated centers in the league, has been hot with averages of 30.7 points, 13.0 rebounds and 64.0 percent shooting over the past three games.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a much better home team than they are a road team.  They are 12-7 on the road this season scoring 97.8 points and allowing 97.6 points per game.  Now, Mike Conley is battling injuries to both of his ankles, and had to leave the team's win over the Celtics last time out with an ankle injury. 

After seeing him in a walking boot after the game, there's a good chance he doesn't play tonight even thought he's listed as questionable.  Conley is the Grizzlies' floor general and their most important player.  If he doesn't play, it's going to be an added bonus, but even if he does he'll be far from 100% as both ankles are bothering him right now.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last six Friday games.  Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Orlando is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  It has proven time and time again that it can play with the league's best teams.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Indiana Pacers +1.5

Yes, the Detroit Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league here of late, and I've backed them quite a bit.  However, once that news becomes public, then teams like the Pistons tend to be way overvalued, which I believe to be the case tonight and in the near future.

The Pistons have won nine of their last 11 games overall.  They had won seven straight and covered seven in a row before the odds started to catch up to them.  They are now just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall as they have been overvalued.  They lost 94-105 at home to the Pelicans last time out as 4-point favorites.  Just like they shouldn't have been favored over the Pelicans, they should not be favored against the Pacers tonight.

Indiana has managed to hold it together this season despite all of the injuries it was dealt with a 15-25 record up to this point.  Now, most of their team is healthy, and the Pacers are going to be a tough out going forward.  They come into this game undervalued off back-to-back upset losses to Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Pacers will be hungry for a win after this recent stretch, where they've gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They also come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Timberwolves, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Detroit, on the other hand, will be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Pistons are 3-11 ATS off a home loss this season.  Detroit is 4-15 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Indiana is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 visits to Indiana.  Roll with the Pacers Friday.

15* Gonzaga/Pepperdine Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +12.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are a very public team due to their successes in the NCAA Tournament over the last several years, and their 16-1 record and No. 3 national ranking in 2014-15.  They are consistently overvalued as a result as the public just backs them blindly.

Gonzaga has no business laying 12.5-point on the road to Pepperdine tonight.  The Bulldogs have dominated at home this season, but they have been much more shaky on the road, and asking them to win by 13-plus points against an improved Waves squad is asking too much.

Gonzaga has played eight games away from home this season.  All eight of those games resulted in wins by 13 points or less.  They beat Georgia (88-76), St. Johns (73-66) and Cal Poly-SLO (63-50) all on neutral courts, and UCLA (87-74), BYU (87-80), San Diego (60-48) and Portland (87-75) on the road.  They also lost at Arizona (63-66).

Pepperdine is one of the most improved teams in the country at 11-5 this season.  As a result, the Waves have been one of the most underrated teams in the land as well, as evidenced by their 11-3 ATS record in their 14 lined games this year.  Yet, they are still getting no respect from the betting public tonight.

The Waves come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won 71-61 as 7.5-point home favorites over Pacific, 67-61 as 15-point road dogs at BYU, and 59-47 as 4-point road dogs at San Diego. 

That win over BYU on the road shows that the Waves can play with anyone in the country.  Plus, they have even been competitive in their losses.  All five of Pepperdine's losses have come by 11 points or less, which includes a 61-72 loss at Iowa as 16-point dogs, a 74-81 loss at Arizona State as 8-point dogs, and a 63-65 loss to Richmond on a neutral court as 5-point dogs.

Gonzaga is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 road games off two straight home wins by 10 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The Wave are 9-0 ATS after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  Pepperdine is 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the Waves.  Take Pepperdine Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +15

The Wisconsin Badgers are overvalued due to their 15-2 start and their No. 7 national ranking.  They should not be laying 15 points to a Nebraska team that beat them 77-68 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad.

Wisconsin also has four starters back this year, but two of those are banged up.  Frank Kaminsky (concussion) is expected to return tonight after sitting out a 62-67 loss at Rutgers as 15-point favorites last time out.  Starting point guard Traevon Jackson (9.4 ppg, 2.9 apg) injured his ankle in that loss to Rutgers and is out indefinitely.

The Badgers have been overvalued here recently and they continue to be tonight.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only beat Buffalo by 12 as 22.5-point home favorites, Penn State by 17 as 18.5-point home favorites, Purdue by 7 as 16.5-point home favorites, and then lost to Rutgers 62-67 as 15-point road favorites.

With four starters back from a team that went to the NCAA Tournament last year, expectations were high for Nebraska.  Well, the Huskers got off to a slow start and have been undervalued ever since.  They have dealt with injuries all year, and they are now finally healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Huskers have been much more competitive in Big Ten play.  They did open with a 65-70 loss to Indiana as a 4-point home favorite, and then lost 59-70 at Iowa as 9.5-point underdogs in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They have rebounded with back-to-back blowout wins over Rutgers (65-49) as 10-point favorites, and Illinois (53-43) as 3-point favorites.

Nebraska is 14-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or worse after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 2-10 ATS in home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Nebraska Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (18-19) are on a mission to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.  They know that they have to give 100% effort from here on out to get there, which is going to make them an enticing bet the rest of the way.  You certainly won't be questioning their effort tonight.

It's rare that you see an NBA team get five days off in between games.  Well, that's the case for the Thunder tonight, who last played on January 9th in a 99-94 win over the Jazz.  That means they have had five full days to prepare for the Houston Rockets and to rest up.  I suspect you will see their best effort of the season tonight as a result.

Meanwhile, the situation could not be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  This is a tired team right now as the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days.  The Rockets simply won't be able to match the intensity that the Thunder play with tonight because they will be too tired to do so.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  They have also won 4 of the last 6.  They did lose 65-69 to the Rockets at home in their first and only meeting of 2014-15, but they were playing without Westbrook and Durant.  They are now healthy and back to being one of the best teams in the West.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +15.5

These are two teams with identical 9-6 records squaring off tonight as the Auburn Tigers visit the Florida Gators in SEC play.  There is not 15.5 points that separates these two teams even when you give Florida home-court advantage.

Auburn is in transition mode under first-year head coach Bruce Pearl, who was the former Tennessee boss.  It was going to take some time for the Tigers to gel, and there were some very ugly results in the early going.  However, this team is playing their best basketball of the season entering this matchup.

Indeed, the Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while going 3-1-1 ATS in their lined games.  Their only loss during this stretch came at Vanderbilt 52-64 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They have won three of their games by 16 points or more, while also beating Xavier 89-88 and Missouri 85-79 during this stretch.

Florida is overvalued due to its name and program history.  The Gators are in rebuilding mode this year under Billy Donovan and are a borderline NCAA Tournament team.  With six losses already, including home losses to Miami & UConn, they clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past.

Florida is 1-8 ATS after covering two of its last three games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.  The Gators are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Gators.  Bet Auburn Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Rice +17

The Rice Owls are showing excellent value tonight as 17-point road underdogs to the Old Dominion Monarchs.  The betting public is all over Old Dominion and its 13-2 record, while ignoring Rice and its 4-10 record, providing us with some great line value on the road underdogs in this one.

Rice may be just 4-10, but it has been much more competitive than that record would indicate, which is evidenced by its 6-2 ATS mark on the season.  In fact, all 10 of Rice's losses have come by 13 points or less this season, including seven of those by single-digits.

One performance that really stands out to me and shows what the Owls are capable of was their 55-66 loss at Texas as 27.5-point underdogs.  They stayed within 11 points of the Longhorns on the road, who are one of the best teams in the country.  They can certainly stay within 17 of Old Dominion on the road tonight.

Yes, Old Dominion is a quality team that will have a chance to win Conference USA and make the NCAA Tournament.  However, only four of its 13 wins have come by more than 17 points.  Those were against UNC-Wilmington, North Carolina A&T, Mount St. Mary's and Marshall.

These teams met last year in Old Dominion with the Monarchs once again getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  They were 10.5-point favorites over the Owls, and they only won 55-51 to fail to cover the spread.  Now they are 17-point home favorites a year later, which is way too much.

Old Dominion is 1-10 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Monarchs are 4-13 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Considering Rice has played 14 games this year and hasn't lost once by more than 13 points, that's a 14-0 system pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread backing the Owls.  Roll with Rice Thursday.

15* SDSU/Wyoming ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -1.5

The Wyoming Cowboys are a team that just doesn't get the attention they deserve.  Yes, they just recently moved into the Top 25 after their 15-2 start this season, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers still don't give the Cowboys the respect they deserve.

Wyoming's only two losses this season came on the road to SMU (53-66) and California (42-45), which are two very good teams and it should not be ashamed of those losses one bit.  At home, it has been a completely different story for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Wyoming is a perfect 12-0 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.5 points per game at home this year.  It is coming off impressive back-to-back wins at Colorado State (60-54) as 5-point dogs, and at home against Boise State (65-54) as 7-point favorites.

San Diego State is 12-4 this season and clearly overvalued due to what it has done in recent years.  Well, these aren't the same Aztecs this season.  They are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses at Washington (36-49) as 1.5-point favorites, at Cincinnati (62-71) as 2-point dogs, and at Fresno State (57-59) as 8.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Wyoming and San Diego State.  The home team has won four straight and nine of the last 11 meetings.  The Cowboys have pulled off the upset in each of their last two home meetings with the Aztecs.  They won 68-62 at home as 4-point dogs to SDSU last year, and 58-45 as 2-point home dogs in 2013.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO ST) - poor three point shooting team (32% or worse) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.

San Diego State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country.  It shoots just 40.4% from the field and 28.0% from the 3-point stripe.  Wyoming shoots 50.4% from the field while allowing just 39.8% shooting and 52.2 points per game to opponents.  The Cowboys are one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends of the floor.

The Aztecs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  San Diego State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Wyoming is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +2

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-6 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-4 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73), Ohio State (61-77) and Nebraska (43-53).  I look for it to drop to 0-5 on the road this season against a Northwestern team that is 10-6 and underrated in terms of the betting public and the oddsmakers.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  This team just isn't that good without Rice.

The Wildcats had won four straight prior to their back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the Big Ten in Wisconsin and Michigan State.  Well, they actually went on the road and gave the Spartans all they could handle as 14-point underdogs.  They forced overtime and eventually lost 77-84.

Northwestern has played Illinois very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, it has actually won four of the last six meetings with one of the two losses coming by a single point.  It won 49-43 at home last year as 5.5-point underdogs.  The Wildcats also pulled off a pair of upsets with a 68-54 win as 10-point road dogs in 2013 and a 74-70 win as 6-point road dogs in 2012.

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  These last four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off tonight in their 3rd meeting of the 2014-15 season.  They played on December 23rd and January 9th, so this will actually be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, and that familiarity will lead to a defensive battle tonight on ESPN.

After all, it has been mostly defensive battles when these teams have gotten together here of late.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings between the Bulls and Wizards have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 188, 190, 144, and 187 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 177.3 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 17th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The key to their success has been defense as both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.  Washington ranks 6th giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago ranks 10th at 101.7.

The Bulls are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season in a 114-121 loss to Orlando last time out.  You can bet that Tom Thibodeau has been in their ears about defense, because he cannot stand to give up that many points as he's a defensive-minded guy.  Look for the Bulls to come out with a huge effort defensively tonight, especially after losing to the Wizards 86-102 less than a week ago.

The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Wizards last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls and Wizards have combined for less than 195 points in 17 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 17-3 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic come into this game way undervalued.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall to drop to 14-27 on the season.  Well, they are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 121-114 win at Chicago, and they will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight because of it.

Houston comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Well, those four wins came against Cleveland (without Lebron), New York, Utah and Brooklyn (without Deron Williams).  With a game against Oklahoma City on deck tomorrow, the Rockets could easily be overlooking the Magic tonight.

Victor Oladipo had a season-high 33 points and Nikola Vucevic added 33 with 11 rebounds against the Bulls as Orlando recorded its highest scoring total of the season. "When we're aggressive on defense and we're pushing the pace on offense, that gives us more opportunities to score more points," reserve Willie Green told the team's official website. "Vooch and Vic carried us offensively and everybody else just played their role. For us, it's just about us needing to score more points."

The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This team has shown that it can play with some of the best teams in the league this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +4

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-6) are primed for a big performance against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tonight.  I look for them to not only cover this 4-point spread, but to likely win this game outright with all the factors that are in play coming in.

Georgia Tech will be highly motivated for a victory due to losing three straight to open ACC play to fall to 0-3 within the conference. All three losses came by 7 points or less at Notre Dame (76-83, OT) as 11.5-point dogs, versus Syracuse (45-46) as 4-point dogs, and at Wake Forest (69-76) as 3-point dogs.

Obviously, after already losing to Notre Dame in overtime in the ACC opener on January 3rd on the road, the Yellow Jackets are going to be out for revenge in the rematch less than two weeks later.  They are simply going to want this game more.

Notre Dame (15-2) is overvalued due to its fast start to the season.  It is in a prime letdown spot after a 56-62 loss to No. 2 ranked Virginia on Saturday.  Look for the Irish to suffer a hangover from that crushing defeat.

One factor that is getting overlooked here is that Notre Dame forward Zach Auguste has been suspended indefinitely following the Virginia Game.  Auguste is the team's second-leading scorer (14.3 PPG) and second-leading rebounder (6.4 RPG).  He also shoots 65.3% from the field, so his loss is a crushing blow to the Fighting Irish.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings.  Notre Dame is 6-15 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Irish are 3-12 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.   Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 213.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings tonight.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this game, which has been a common theme when these teams have gotten together recently.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  The Mavericks and Kings have combined for 204, 184, 203 and 210 points in their last four meetings, respectively, and they have not combined for more than 213.5 in any of their last five meetings.  They have averaged 200.3 points per game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total.

The Mavericks have become a much better defensive team since trading for Rajon Rondo.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  However, they are certainly a worse offensive team with Rondo.  They have failed to top 100 points in each of their last three games.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mavericks last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 203

The betting public looks at the Golden State Warriors and is quick to back the overs in their games because of their electrifying duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.  What they fail to realize is that the Warriors have the best record (29-5) in the NBA because of their defense.

Indeed, Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.2 points per 100 possessions.  Teams are only shooting 41.9% against the Warriors.  Their defense is only going to get better now that Andrew Bogut is back healthy.

The Utah Jazz have been playing tremendous defense here of late.  They have allowed 98 or fewer points in 10 of their last 13 games overall, and 105 or fewer in each of their last 13.  They are allowing just 92.8 points per game in their last 13 contests.  A big reason is the insertion of Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  He is a force down low who provides no offense, but a ton of blocks and boards on D.

Nobody is going to mistake the Jazz for a great offensive team.  In fact, they have been pretty terrible on that end of the floor here of late.  They have scored 101 or fewer points in 12 straight games.  The Jazz are only averaging 94.1 pints per game in their last 12 games.  As a result, the UNDER is 10-1 in Utah's last 11 games overall.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Jazz and Warriors.  They have combined for 190 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1 during this stretch.  The UNDER is also 8-2 in the last 10 meetings as they have combined for 202 or fewer points in eight of those 10.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 28-7 (80%) since 1997.  Utah is 12-2 to the UNDER vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings, including 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -4

The South Carolina Gamecocks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Florida and Ole Miss to open SEC play, so they are going to be highly motivated to get their first taste of victory in conference play.

South Carolina has dropped to 9-5 with those two straight losses, but this is still one of the most underrated teams in the country with four starters back from last year.  Wins over the likes of Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60) certainly show what the Gamecocks are capable of.

Alabama comes into this game way overvalued due to its six-game winning streak and its 2-0 start in SEC play.  Well, this streak has mostly come against a soft schedule with five of six games at home.  Yes, the 56-38 win at Tennessee last time out was impressive, but now the Vols are in a massive letdown spot.

Tennessee plays No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday.  It's only human nature for the Volunteers to be looking ahead to that game against the Wildcats.  They will come into this game overconfident due to their six-game streak, and they will be peaking ahead to Kentucky.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the Gamecocks, who will simply want this one more.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  South Carolina is 6-2 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 17.9 points per game.  Alabama is 1-2 in true road games this year.

Alabama is 2-21 ATS off six or more consecutive since since 1997.  This trend just goes to show you that the Crimson Tide have been overvalued when on extended winning streaks.  Also, the Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Championship Game No-Brainer on Ohio State +7

While Oregon may be the better team, I just cannot foresee it blowing out Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played their two best games of the year coming into this one as Urban Meyer has his team hitting on all cylinders. They proved that their 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship was no fluke. After outgaining the Badgers by 300 total yards, the Buckeyes really dominated the Crimson Tide in the first round of the four-team playoff.

Alabama did score a late touchdown to get within 42-35, but that was as close as it would get. Statistically, this was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Crimson Tide 537-407 for the game, or by 130 total yards. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries in the win. He now has 450 rushing yards in his last two games and is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and a touchdown with one pick against Alabama as well.

Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone a perfect 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread in its last nine games overall. While that is impressive, it has the betting public quick to back the Ducks again. I believe these teams are much more evenly matched than this 7-point spread would indicate. It should be closer to a pick ‘em in my eyes, which means there is value in backing the dog.

Yes, Oregon beat Florida State handily 59-20, but that game was far from the blowout that the score shows. The Ducks only outgained the Seminoles by 111 total yards in the win. That’s a good margin, but not one that would warrant a 39-point blowout. The Seminoles simply gave the game away in the second half by committing five turnovers with four lost fumbles and an interception.

Florida State racked up 528 total yards on this suspect Oregon defense. The Ducks can score at will, but they clearly have the worse defense in this one. They are allowing an average of 421.9 yards per game on the season. Ohio State only gives up 22.1 points and 333.4 yards per game against teams that average 28.3 points and 396 yards per game, so it has been pretty elite defensively. I look for the Buckeyes to be the team that comes up with the more stops in this one, which will lead to a cover and possibly an outright win.

Ohio State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 188 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Stopping the run will be key because both teams love to run it. Oregon averages 242 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State puts up 262 yards per game on the ground. Oregon gives up 156 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry against teams that average 162 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it has been just mediocre against the run.

I have really been impressed with Ohio State’s ability to stop the run here of late against some very good rushing teams. The Buckeyes have held Michigan, Wisconsin and Alabama to a combined 120.7 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They limited Melvin Gordon and the Badgers to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries, Michigan to 121 yards on 38 carries, and Alabama to 170 yards on 34 carries.

Urban Meyer is 21-5 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Meyer is 15-4 ATS versus excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in all games he has coached. Ohio State is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 vs. excellent rushing teams that average at least 230 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  For what it's worth, the Buckeyes are 8-0 all-time against the Ducks.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +11

The Orlando Magic are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  I'll take advantage and grab as many points as I can get in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

At 13-27 on the season, the Magic get no respect from the betting public.  Well, they have been much better than their record would indicate, as evidenced by their profitable 22-18 ATS mark on the season.  They simply have lost the majority of their close games, which has made their record worse than it should be right now.

The Magic come in undervalued due to their current six-game losing streak.  Seven of their last nine losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to this skid and to get back in the win column.

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this year.  They have gone just 17-21 ATS on the season.  They have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or less.  They have also been blown out by Brooklyn (82-96) at home, Utah (77-97) at home and Washington (86-102) on the road during their 2-7 ATS stretch.

Chicago is also dealing with some injury issues right now.  Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight with a hip contusion and a sore left knee.  He missed their last game in a 95-87 home win over Milwaukee on Saturday where Pau Gasol scored a career high 46 points.  He's not going to do that again.  Mike Dunleavy is also doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury.

The Magic have done their best work on the road where they are 16-8 ATS this season.  They have also played the Bulls very tough in Chicago in recent meetings.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the United Center.  They have only lost once by more than 9 points to the Bulls in their last 10 trips to Chicago.  That's a 9-1 ATS system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The underdog is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now due to their slow start to the season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 19-13 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, so they were expected to make another run at the tournament this year.

Well, that run needs to start soon after a slow 9-6 start for the Huskers.  They have been in every game they've played as all six of their losses have come by 11 points or less, and I have no doubt that this team is better than their record.  They got back on track with a 65-49 home win over Rutgers last time out, and I look for them to carry that momentum into today's game with Illinois.

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-5 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-3 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73) and Ohio State (61-77).  I look for it to drop to 0-4 on the road this season against a Nebraska team that has been great at home over the past two seasons.  The Huskers are 22-4 at home over the past two years.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  They come in overvalued off their upset home win over Maryland, but this team just isn't that good without Rice.

Nebraska is 13-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Huskers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. Big Ten foes.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (25-11) come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four coming in with all three losses coming on the road.  Now, they return home where they'll handle the Phoenix Suns to get back on track.

Memphis is 14-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 7.3 points per game.  Phoenix is a solid 13-10 on the road this season, but most of its road wins have come against weak teams with losing records.  In fact, only two of its road wins have come against teams that currently have winning records.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  Indeed, Memphis is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Phoenix.  All five of those wins have come by 5 points or more, and covering this small 4.5-point spread won't be a problem tonight either.

The Grizzlies are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  It's also worth noting that Memphis just got back Zach Randolph from a nine-game absence.  They are going to be a much stronger team going forward with a healthy Randolph back in the lineup.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Packers NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +6

This is arguably the most anticipated game of the playoffs this weekend. These are two of the most popular teams in the NFL, and the league is certainly better when both the Cowboys and Packers are good at the same time. Also, the Packers are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, while the Cowboys are 8-0 on the road, so something has to give.

Obviously, the Cowboys going 8-0 on the road is probably the most impressive feat of the entire season in the NFL. They have played their best football away from home this year. They handed Seattle its only home loss of the season back on October 12th when they won 30-23 as 9.5-point underdogs. They won’t be intimidated by having to go into Green Bay to get a win Sunday, that’s for sure.

The Packers did go 8-0 at home this season, but five of those wins came against teams with losing records, and the other three were against New England, Philadelphia and Detroit. Both the Lions and Patriots were able to keep their games close as the Patriots lost by 5, while the Lions lost by 10. I believe the Cowboys are fully capable of keeping this game close as well, which will allow them to cover the 6-point spread.

Yes, Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers and one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it is being overvalued due to Rodgers’ play at home. The real key to this game is going to be defense. The Packers have not been the best defensive team in the league this year, and they have struggled against the run for most of the season. Remember, they were knocked out of the playoffs by the 49ers each of the last two seasons as San Francisco ran wild on them.

I believe that could be the case again in this game. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the league in rushing at 147.1 yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the superb play of DeMarco Murray and arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. A big reason why I took the Lions +7 last week was because they were elite against the run. They ranked No. 1 in the league in run defense at under 70 yards per game, so I expected them to slow down Murray, which is precisely what they did. They nearly pulled off the upset as a result.

Green Bay won’t be able to stop Murray. The Packers allowed 108 or more rushing yards in 12 of their 16 games this season. They rank 23rd in the league against the run, surrendering an average of 119.9 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. The Cowboys are going to be able to move the football at will on the ground, which will open things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Green Bay gives up 357.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Dallas has been superb against the run and will make Green Bay one-dimensional. The Cowboys have allowed 90 or fewer yards rushing in six of their last eight games overall. They have allowed an average of 61.0 rushing yards per game in their last five games to boot. Stopping Eddie Lacy will be key for them because Rodgers isn’t nearly as effective when he has no running game to support him.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Green Bay is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 7.0 or more yards per attempt. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days of rest this season. The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in their previous game. Jason Garrett is 20-9 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Dallas, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

25* NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +11

The Seattle Seahawks come into the playoffs overvalued due to going 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall. They now find themselves as double-digit favorites over the Carolina Panthers, which I simply believe is too much. I look for the Panthers to keep this game close from start to finish, just as they have in several recent meetings with the Seahawks.

Yes, it’s bad that a team with a losing record is allowed to make the playoffs. The Panthers even made it despite having a six-game losing streak at one point in the season. They looked lost for much of the year, but here of late, they have much more resembled the team that went 12-4 last year and earned a first-round bye.

Indeed, the Panthers have won five straight games coming in. That includes blowout road wins at New Orleans 41-10 and at Atlanta 34-3, which are no small feats. Even their 27-16 win over the Cardinals last week was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cardinals by 308 yards and held them to just 78 total yards for the entire game.

Carolina’s run of great play extends back even further. In fact, it has outgained each of its last seven opponents, including five of them by 105 or more total yards. The Panthers have outgained their last seven foes by a total of 977 total yards, or by an average of 139.6 yards per game. Now that’s domination that really shows this team is no pushover.

Cam Newton has returned healthy from injury and has helped the Panthers rush for at least 100 yards in 12 straight games. In fact, the Panthers have averaged 190.4 rushing yards per game in their last five games overall. Jonathan Stewart has spearheaded the rushing attack, averaging 104.8 yards per game himself over these five contests.

The improvement the Panthers have made defensively here of late has been the biggest difference, though. Carolina has allowed 17 or fewer points in five straight games while giving up an average of 11.8 points per game during this stretch. It has also given up just 233.5 yards per game in its last six games overall. These numbers are elite defensively, and they resemble the numbers this defense put up all of last season.

The teams that have given Seattle trouble are ones with a defense and a running game. Seattle is still good against the run, but its biggest strength is against the pass. Controlling the ball with the running game and stopping the Seahawks’ offense is something the Panthers have mastered in recent meetings with them.

The Seahawks have won four straight over the Panthers, but the last three have all gone right down to the wire in ugly, low-scoring defensive battles. The Seahawks won 16-12 in 2012, 12-7 in 2013, and 13-9 in 2014. As you can see, the Panthers held them to 16 or fewer points in all three meetings. I believe they can do that again with the way they are playing defensively, which means they only need a score or two to cover this massive 11-point spread.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Carolina is 11-3 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Panthers have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games. Stopping Marshawn Lynch and the running game will be huge in this one, too.  Bet the Panthers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are coming off a pair of defensive battles last night.  The Bulls lost 86-102 at Washington, while the Bucks beat the Timberwolves 98-84 at home.  Both games went UNDER the total, and the oddsmakers have set the number too high again tonight at 194 points for this contest.

Milwaukee is the single-most improved team in the NBA this season.  It has posted a 20-18 record up to this point and is comfortably in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  The reason for the Bucks' resurgence is their defense, which has been some of the best the NBA has to offer.

The Bucks are now a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have held eight of their last nine opponents to 94 or fewer points, and an average of just 86.7 points per game.  If that's not getting it done on the defensive end, then I don't know what is.

Both Chicago and Milwaukee rank among the Top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee ranks 4th, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is a solid 9th in allowing 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

When these teams get together, it's usually a low-scoring affair.  Indeed, the Bulls and Bucks have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 175.2 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games over the last three seasons.  It is combining with its opponents for an average of 173.1 points per game in these spots, winning 88.7 to 84.4 on average.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Virginia/Notre Dame ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to be undervalued this season as home underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Irish came into the season picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC.  Well, everyone was wrong on this team, and the oddsmakers are wrong in listing them as home underdogs in this matchup as well.

Notre Dame is off to a 14-1 start this season and currently ranked No. 13 in the country.  Its only loss came by a final of 74-75 on a neutral court against Providence, which was actually essentially a home game for the Friars.  The Irish have impressive wins over the likes of UMass (81-68) and Purdue (94-63) on a neutral court, Michigan State (79-78) and Florida State (83-63) at home, as well as North Carolina (71-70) on the road.

Notre Dame returned four starters from last year, and all four have made big strides this season.  The key was getting Jerian Grant back from suspension.  Grant only played the first 12 games last year before being suspended the rest of the way due to academic issues.

Grant (17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg, 3.2 rpg) is one of the best players in the entire country.  Zach Auguste (14.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg) along with Grant give the Irish four players who are scoring at least 13.9 points per game.  Not too many other teams in the country can claim that.

While Virginia is a very good team that won the ACC regular season and postseason titles last year, it is simply overvalued due to its 14-0 start this season.  The Cavaliers have been flirting with disaster here of late, and I look for them to suffer their first loss of the season Saturday to the best team they have played yet. 

They only beat Davidson 83-72 at home as 18-point favorites, Miami 89-80 (OT) on the road as 6.5-point favorites, and NC State (61-51) at home as 14-point favorites in their last three games overall.  They easily could have lost all three games, especially that overtime game on the road against Miami.

Notre Dame is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  The Fighting Irish are 12-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 26.5 points per game.  They are simply tough to beat at home, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere on Saturday.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +3.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are in a massive hangover spot here.  They came out of nowhere to give No. 1 Kentucky a run for its money on Tuesday, forcing overtime with the Wildcats before eventually losing 86-89 as 23-point underdogs.

While that performance was impressive, there's no way this team will be able to recover from such a tough defeat to the No. 1 team in the country.  I look for the Rebels to fall flat on their faces Saturday against a South Carolina team that is better and will want this game more.

The Rebels aren't even that good of a team this year at 9-5, and several performances show that.  They lost at home to Charleston Southern 65-66 as 13-point favorites, lost at home to TCU 54-66 as 6-point favorites, and lost at home to Western Kentucky 74-81 as 9.5-point favorites.  So, they have already been beaten three times at home this year by suspect competition.

South Carolina has really impressed me during its 9-4 start.  Its four losses have all come to quality competition in Baylor (65-69), Charlotte (63-65), Akron (63-68) and Florida (68-72) all by four points or less.  It has also beaten some good teams like Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60). 

The Gamecocks are very close to being a 13-0 team right now despite playing a brutal schedule.  Head coach Frank Martin, who had a ton of success at Kansas State before arriving at South Carolina, finally has his players in place.  He returned four starters from last year's team, and this is now a battle-tested, experience squad, which counts for a lot.

South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Ole Miss.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* Ravens/Patriots AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +7

While the Baltimore Ravens entered the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, I don’t believe they are only the sixth-best team in the conference. They are right up there with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos as the top teams in the AFC. They belong in the final four of this conference, and they went out and proved that with a resounding 30-17 win at Pittsburgh last week.

I view the Patriots as only slightly a better team than the Ravens on a neutral field. So, give the Patriots 3-4 points for home-field advantage, and this line should be somewhere in the neighborhood of Patriots -4. I believe we are getting some value in backing the Ravens catching a full touchdown in this game as a result. I just can’t foresee New England winning this game by two scores or more.

The numbers would indicate that these teams are pretty much equals, though the Ravens actually have a slight edge. The Ravens rank 8th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 28.0 yards per game. The Patriots are only 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game. Statistically, the Patriots aren’t as dominant as their 12-4 record would indicate.

I actually believe New England could have a bit of rust coming into this game. It didn’t go all out against Buffalo in Week 17 as it rested several starters. So, it has essentially had three weeks off in between its last meaningful game and this one. The Patriots also earned the No. 1 seed back in 2012-13, only to get upset at home by the Ravens 28-13 as 8-point favorites in the Divisional Round.

When Baltimore won the Super Bowl two years ago, it had to go on the road for the final two games in the AFC as well. This is a team that doesn’t get phased by having to go on the road and win big games as they have been there, done that. Since joining the league in 2008, Joe Flacco’s 10 postseason wins are more than any other quarterback, including the combined win total for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (8). His win in Pittsburgh Saturday was his seventh on the road, which is two more than any other passer in NFL history.

Two of Flacco’s playoff road wins have come in his three career attempts in New England. The Ravens just have a knack for playing the Patriots tough. While New England sports a 5-3 record in its last eight meetings with Baltimore, only one of those five wins came by more than 6 points.  So, Baltimore has only lost once to New England by more than 6 points in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Yes, the Patriots did beat the Ravens 41-7 on the road last year, but that game was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Ravens actually outgained the Patriots 358-300 for the game, but gave it away by committing four turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. The Patriots scored three times in the final 2:05 of the game to pull away.

The Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games.  Baltimore is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five road playoff games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Baltimore.  Take the Ravens Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on DePaul +21

There's no denying that the Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 on the season.  However, with that record comes big expectations from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which has the Wildcats way overvalued heading into this showdown with DePaul Saturday.

DePaul is just 9-7 on the season, but this is a veteran bunch that returned four starters from last year and is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country.  What I really like about the Blue Demons is how well they are playing in conference play in the early going.

Indeed, DePaul is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big East action.  It has pulled off three straight upsets.  The Blue Demons won 61-58 as 5-point home dogs to Marquette, 71-68 as 10.5-point home dogs to Xavier, and 70-60 as 10-point road dogs to Creighton to open conference play.  Obviously, if they can beat those three teams, they can certainly stay within 21 of Villanova Saturday.

Jay Wright is 14-28 ATS after playing two consecutive road games as the coach of Villanova.  The Blue Demons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big East foes.  These four returning starters for the Blue Demons have not forgotten their two blowout losses to the Wildcats last year by 26 and 25 points.  They want revenge, and their improvement over last year should have them staying within 21.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland -6.5

The Portland Pilots are a team that I have my eye on.  I don't normally play too many teams from smaller conferences, but there are times when I can find a team and ride them when I know they are going under the radar in a small conference.  The WCC is not the smallest of conferences, but not a lot of folks pay attention to it, so there can be some value had.

Portland returned four starters from last year, and this veteran bunch is off to an 11-5 start this season.  The five losses all came to quality competition, and the Pilots were rather competitive in them.  They lost 55-70 to Valparaiso on a neutral court, 58-65 at home to Oregon State, 73-75 at UNLV as 6-point road dogs, 88-97 at BYU as 10.5-point road dogs, and 75-87 at home to Gonzaga as 12-point dogs.

Portland has gone a very profitable 10-3-1 ATS in all lined games this year as it has consistently been undervalued.  This is a very deep team that has eight players averaging at least 6.4 points per game.  Leading the way has been four double-digit scorers in Alec Wintering (14.1 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kevin Bailey (12.0 ppg), Thomas van der Mars (10.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Volodymyr Gerun (10.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg).

From what I've seen from San Francisco thus far, it is certainly fade material.  The Dons are just 7-10 this season with some very ugly losses.  They lost by 15 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 17 to Colorado, by 5 at home to Eastern Washington, by 7 at home to Cal Poly-SLO, by 13 at St. Mary's, by 31 at home against BYU, and by 31 at Gonzaga.

Those two performances against BYU and Gonzaga give these teams a pair of common opponents.  Well, BYU and Gonzaga are considered the two best teams in the WCC.  San Francisco lost by 31 to BYU and by 31 to Gonzaga.  Portland only lost to BYU by 9 and to Gonzaga by 12.  Plus, the Dons could easily have a hangover effect here after losing to both BYU and Gonzaga in their last two games, which are games they were obviously amped up for.  Because of those results, I believe we are getting the Pilots at a discount here as only 6.5-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 0-7 ATS versus good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots this season.  Portland is 6-0 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Pilots are 7-0 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.  The Dons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pilots.  Bet Portland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Washington State +11.5

These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest.  While Washington State is just 7-7 this season and Washington is 11-3, you can throw the records out the window when these in-state rivals get together.  I'll gladly take the double-digit points with the road underdog Cougars in this one.

There's no denying that Washington State has some bad losses this season, but I love the way that it is playing coming into this game.  It has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall, time and time again getting overlooked by oddsmakers.

It started with a 91-71 win over TX-San Antonio as 8.5-point home favorites.  The Cougars then went on the road and played a competitive game against one of the best teams in the country in a 66-81 loss at Gonzaga as 22.5-point favorites.  They did fail to cover at Santa Clara in a 67-76 loss, but rebounded with back-to-back covers against San Jose State (82-53) and Cal Davis (90-83) at home.  They lost 56-71 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, then upset Cal on the road 69-66 as 9.5-point dogs.  They are clearly playing well coming in.

Washington has some impressive wins this season and started the season 11-0.  However, you just cannot trust the Huskies to lay 11.5 points with the way they have been playing coming into this game.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Tulane 66-57 as 14-point home favorites, lost to Stony Brook 57-62 as 13.5-point home favorites, lost at Cal 75-81 as 1-point road favorites, and lost at Stanford 60-68 as 5.5-point underdogs.  They just aren't playing good basketball heading in.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years.  In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings between Washington and Washington State have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Cougars given this 11.5-point spread.  Also, eight of those 11 meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Throw in the 10-1 system on the 11 points or less trend, and these last four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Cougars.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

20* Bulls/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off on ESPN Friday night in what I anticipate to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  That has been the case when these teams have gotten together recently, and it will be the case again tonight.

The last three meetings between these teams have seen 190, 144, and 187 combined points for an average of 173.7 combined points per game.  Not counting overtime, 18 of the last 19 meetings between these teams have seen 195 or less combined points.  The only exception was a 197-point effort.  That's a 17-1-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry on offense as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 16th at 96.2 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.5 possessions per contest.  Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency as well.  Washington ranks 6th at 100.4 points per 100 possessions allowed, while Chicago is 9th at 101.2.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Wizards last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Washington.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 196.5

There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans.  First and foremost, when you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

Indeed, 11 of the last 12 meetings between the Pelicans and Grizzlies have seen 194 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 174, 178, 187, 202, 183, 173, 181, 174, 185, 194, 163 and 180 points in their last 12 meetings.  That's an average of 181.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Another reason to love this UNDER is that neither team is in a hurry offensively.  The Grizzlies rank 27th in the league in pace at 94.0 possessions per game.  The Pelicans rank 22nd in pace at 95.1 possessions per contest.  So, fewer possessions equals fewer points as this one will be played at a snail's pace.

New Orleans is 90-56 to the UNDER in its last 146 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than 70%.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +3

The Detroit Pistons should not be an underdog at home to the Atlanta Hawks with the way they are playing right now.  This has been a completely different team since letting go of Josh Smith.  In fact, nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Pistons right now.

The Pistons have averaged 107.9 points and 48.0 percent shooting while allowing 92.9 and 42.8 per contest during a seven-game win streak, which began after they waived veteran forward and ex-Hawk Josh Smith. They scored 94.4 points and shot 41.3 percent per game while giving up 101.1 and 45.8 during a 5-23 start.

"Guys have worked harder, they've been more attentive and a lot more together," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We don't have guys that are getting concerned about who's in the game or their playing time or their shots or anything else. They just want to win games."

While the first five wins of this streak came against suspect competition, all five came by double-digits.  Also, the Pistons have validated their play by going on the road and knocking off back-to-back Western Conference powers.  The beat San Antonio 105-104 as 8-point dogs, and then turned around the next night and beat Dallas 108-95 as 9-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are playing tremendous basketball as well having won 20 of their last 22.  However, this is a huge letdown spot for them.  They are coming off three straight wins over Western Conference powers in Portland, the LA Clippers, and Memphis.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Detroit.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +16

This is a classic situation where BYU comes into this game way overvalued off back-to-back blowout victories.  BYU beat Santa Clara 81-46 on the road followed by San Francisco 99-68 on the road.  Obviously, after those two performances, the betting public is all over them and we have an inflated line as a result.

Pepperdine is a team that can hang with BYU.  The Waves have gone 9-5 this season with all nine of their victories coming by 8 points or more, and eight of those by double-digits.  However, it is how close all of their losses have been that really intrigues me.

The Waves have suffered five losses this season all by 11 points or less.  They lost by 11 at Iowa, by 7 at Arizona State, by 2 to Richmond on a neutral court, by 2 to IUPUI at home, and by 9 at home to St. Mary's.  So, they have not lost a game by more than 11 points this season.

These teams played twice last year in a couple of competitive games.  Pepperdine beat BYU 80-74 as 6.5-point underdogs.  The Waves also covered as 16.5-point dogs in a 72-84 loss at BYU.  With three starters back from that team, the Waves certainly have a good chance to keep this game competitive as well.

Pepperdine is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Waves are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cougars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -8

The SMU Mustangs are one of the better teams in the country that not too many know about.  They returned three starters from a team that should have made the NCAA Tournament last year, but got snubbed.

SMU is off to a 10-4 start this season.  Its four losses have all come against great competition in Gonzaga, Indiana, Arkansas and Cincinnati with three of those coming on the road.  It will return home hungry for a win following a 50-56 loss at Cincinnati last time out.

Memphis is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Josh Pastner's squad returned two starters this year and has had some extremely shaky performances during its 8-5 start.  Its eight wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Indiana State, Bradley, NC Central, USC Upstate, Oral Robers, Western Illinois and Houston.

So, as you can see, the Tigers have not beaten anybody of any relevance.  Their five losses have all come by 8 points or more.  They lost to Wichita State by 15 on a neutral court, lost to Baylor by 24 on a neutral court, lost to SF Austin by 12 at home, lost by Oklahoma State by 18 at home, and lost to Tulane by 8 at home.

SMU is 9-1 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 15.1 points per game.  The Mustangs are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to SMU.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Mustangs.  Take SMU Thursday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Knicks UNDER 194

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the Houston Rockets and New York Knicks tonight on TNT.  With the state the Knicks are in right now, they'll be held to a low number against a very good Houston defense, which will aid the UNDER.

The Knicks are playing without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, and they just traded away their biggest weapon off the bench in J.R. Smith.  So, they are essentially playing without their three best scorers now, and the results have been staggering here of late.

Indeed, the Knicks have been held to 91 or fewer points in six straight games.  They have averaged just 82.3 points per game in their last six contests.  New York ranks 28th in the league in pace at 92.6 possessions per game, and 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.5 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year.  Indeed, it ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets have only gotten stronger defensively with the addition of Josh Smith from the Pistons.

The Rockets and Knicks have already met once this season, and the result was a low-scoring defensive battle.  The Rockets beat the Knicks 91-86 at home for 177 combined points.  That total set was at 191, and both Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith played in that game.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 PPG differential or worse) are 71-37 (65.7%) since 1996.

Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games this season.  New York is 10-2 to the UNDER as a home underdog this season.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Rockets last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Knicks last 22 home games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pacers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Indiana +11

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued as double-digit favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.  They also could be caught looking ahead to Cleveland Friday.

Quietly, the Indiana Pacers have been playing some great basketball to get back into the playoff hunt.  They have gone a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are 7-5 straight up during this stretch with all five of their losses coming by 10 points or less, and four of those coming by 3 points or fewer.  You have to go all the way back to December 12th at Toronto (by 12) to find the last time they lost a game by more than 10 points.

Indiana has had Golden State's number in recent meetings.  The Pacers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors.  Their three losses during this stretch came by 2, 11 and 2 points.  So, they have not lost by more than 11 points in any of their last eight meetings with the Warriors.

The Pacers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games versus good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.    Indiana is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in road games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.  Indiana is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Kings UNDER 212

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings.  I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that does not come close to touching 212 combined points.

One look at the recent history between these teams tells the story.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder and Kings have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.

They have combined for 196, 194, 199, 175, 201, 192, 199 and 200 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 194.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 212. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  OKC is 12-2 to the UNDER as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game way overvalued due to having lost 12 straight games.  The betting public sees that and wants nothing to do with them, creating some nice line value for us to take advantage.

The Timberwolves have not quit as they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games, which have all been by 13 points or less as they have been competitive in all six of them.  They will certainly show up to play tonight considering this game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

This is a very tough spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just went into Milwaukee and won 102-96 last night, and I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Phoenix very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, the Timberwolves are 4-3 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Suns.  Also, their three losses during this stretch have come by 7, 1 and 1 points.  So, the Timberwolves have not lost to the Suns by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.

The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +15

The Duke Blue Devils come into this game way overvalued due to their perfect 13-0 record and their No. 2 national ranking.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that they cannot live up to entering ACC play, and they should not be laying 15 points on the road to Wake Forest tonight.

Wake Forest is a team on the rise under former Kansas star Danny Manning.  The Demon Deacons got off to a very shaky start, but I love the way they are playing here of late, even against some quality competition.

Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 50-63 loss to Florida as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Deacons then beat Bucknell 60-53 at home, Richmond 65-63 on the road, and Princeton 80-66 at home.

However, it was the most recent showing that has me high on the Demon Deacons.  They only lost 76-85 at home to Louisville as 12.5-point underdogs.  They show 52.8% against the Cardinals, who like Duke, are a highly ranked team and one of the best in the country.

Wake Forest has played Duke extremely tough at home in recent years.  Indeed, the Demon Deacons are 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Blue Devils.  They won 82-72 last year as 12.5-point underdogs, lost 70-75 as 13.5-point dogs in 2013, and lost 71-79 as 12-point dogs in 2011.  They always bring their best effort when facing Duke at home.

The home team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Demon Deacons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Duke is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine vs. ACC foes.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Wake Forest.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland PK

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  Yes, they have moved up to the No. 11 ranking in the country after their 14-1 start, but I believe they should be ranked higher with what I've seen from this team.

Maryland has already beaten some very good teams in impressive fashion.  It beat Iowa State 72-63 on a neutral court as 5-point dogs, Oklahoma State 73-64 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and Michigan State 68-66 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.

Head coach Mark Turgeon easily has his best team yet and has done a tremendous job in recruiting.  Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) is one of the best freshmen in the country.  Dez Wells (14.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Jake Layman (14.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg) are two returning starters who have upped their games this year.  Wells has only been healthy for eight games this season, making their 14-1 start that much more impressive.

Illinois is a team that came into the season overvalued due to having five returning starters.  It is off to just a 10-5 start and is now down two starters due to injury.  Tracy Abrams (10.7 ppg) is out for the season with a knee injury, while Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) is out four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice. 

Considering Rice leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and is one of only two double-digits scorers for the Illini, his loss is huge.  This game against Maryland will be the first game that the Illini will have been without Rice this season, which is going to be very difficult for them.  Rice also leads the team in 3-point shooting at 48.3%.  He shoots 51.5% from the field and 80.3% from the line.  His loss cannot be overstated.

I would argue that Illinois doesn't have an impressive win all season.  Its 10 wins have come against Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampton, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  It has lost to Miami, Villanova, Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State all by 7 points or more, including the 61-77 loss at Ohio State last time out.

Illinois is 4-17 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1997.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Illini are 0-6 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Illini are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Maryland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The 76ers just recently returned home from a brutal seven-game road trip.  They won their first two games at Orlando and at Miami, but then proceeded to lose five straight all on the West Coast to Portland, Utah, Golden State, Phoenix and the LA Clippers.

After losing those five straight, the 76ers were undervalued in their first game back home as 4.5-point dogs to the Cavaliers.  Well, they won that game outright 95-92, and I believe they have an excellent chance to beat the Milwaukee Bucks outright tonight as well.

Milwaukee is in a very tough spot here.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  It went into New York and won 95-82 on Sunday, but then lost 96-102 at home to Phoenix last night.  This team is running on fumes now and won't have much to give against the 76ers tonight.

Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 over the last three seasons.  The home team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 visits to Philadelphia.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Central Division foes.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Davidson +10

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  That couldn't be more evident than by their 7-2 ATS record in lined games.  Once again, this team is not getting the respect they deserve as 10-point underdogs to VCU.

Obviously, the betting public knows all about VCU because it made a Final Four appearance a few years back.  That kind of thing sticks with the betting public and keeps the Rams overvalued for years.  They have gone just 6-7 ATS this season and are laying too many points once again tonight.

Davidson is 10-2 this season.  Its two losses have come against two of the best teams in the country.  It lost 72-90 at North Carolina as 13.5-point underdogs, and 72-83 at Virginia as 18-point dogs.  That loss to the Cavaliers was pretty impressive.

It also gives these teams a common opponent.  VCU lost at home to Virginia by a final of 57-74 despite being 1.5-point favorites in that contest.  The Rams have won six straight games since that defeat, but mostly against soft competition.  That six-game winning streak has them overvalued as well.

The Wildcats are a sensational 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  VCU is 0-7 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make at least 72% of their attempts over the last three seasons.  Davidson is 12-1 ATS off two straight games where it had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Davidson is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Davidson Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers represent my favorite play in the Big Ten for the month of January.  They are showing excellent value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Ohio State Buckeyes Tuesday.

The Golden Gophers come into this game highly motivated for a victory so they do not drop to 0-3 in the Big Ten.  That's because they are 0-2 with road losses at Purdue (68-72, OT) and at Maryland (58-70). 

This will be their first Big Ten home game.  That's going to make a huge difference for the Golden Gophers because they are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, and 5-1 ATS, outscoring teams by an average of 27.4 points per game.  All four of their losses this year have come on the road.

Ohio State (12-3) has done almost all of its damage at home this year, going 12-1 at home compared to 0-2 on the road.  The Buckeyes did lose to Iowa 65-71 at home in their Big Ten opener, but bounced back with a 77-61 home win over Illinois last time out.  That was their best win of the season as they have beaten up on a very soft schedule to this point.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  The home team dominated both meetings last year.  Ohio State won 64-46 at home, while Minnesota won 63-53 at home for a pair of double-digit victories.

The Gophers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 home games when playing their 3rd game in a week.  The Buckeyes are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Buckeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Big Ten games.  The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Ohio State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Gophers.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game with San Antonio.  It just so happened that it occurred right in line with the release of Josh Smith, who just seems to be a cancer wherever he goes.  The Pistons have been playing much freer and looser since Smith's departure.

The Pistons are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games since losing their highest-paid player in Smith.  They have won those five games by an average of 18.2 points per game, so it's not like they are just sneaking by opponents.  They are scoring 14.0 more points and surrendering 10.9 fewer per game without Smith.

"I'm not going to say that teams are afraid to play us - there are several teams in the NBA who scare people more than we do," head coach Stan Van Gundy said. "But we're playing very well right now."

The Spurs (21-14) just aren't the team that won the NBA title last year.  They have been battling injuries all season.  NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard remains out with a hand injury and will miss his 11th consecutive game.  Tony Parker has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is questionable to return tonight.

San Antonio has lost seven of its last 11 games overall to really be just a mediocre team.  All four of its wins during this stretch came by single-digits with a 7-point win over the Clippers, a 4-point win over the Rockets, a 2-point win over the Pelicans, and a 9-point win over the Wizards.

Detroit is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 road games off two straight wins by 10 or more points.  The Pistons are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Detroit is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or greater.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 6-2 ATS in its last eight visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.

15* ACC Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Virginia Tech +10

The Florida State Seminoles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as double-digit favorites in this game against Virginia Tech.  I'll gladly take the points in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Buzz Williams was one of the best coaching hires of the offseason.  He did big things at Marquette in turning that program around before coming over to Virginia Tech.  He has shown over the years how to get the best out of his teams.

Williams has done a good job with this team in leading the Hokies to an 8-6 record.  This team is much better than an 8-6 squad because four of their six losses have come by 3 points or less, or by a combined 9 points.  That's how close this is to being a 12-2 squad right now.

That includes a 66-68 loss to Syracuse on Saturday as 9.5-point underdogs.  Obviously, if the Hokies can play with a team like Syracuse, they can certainly play with Florida State, which also boasts an identical 8-6 record this season.

Florida State suffered a huge blow when it lost its best player in Aaron Thomas for the season due to eligibility issues.  The Seminoles have lost to the likes of Northeastern,  Providence (by 24), UMass, Nebraska, Notre Dame (by 20) and Mississippi State this season.

The reason the Seminoles are getting so much respect from oddsmakers is because they beat Florida 65-63 as 7-point home underdogs on December 30th.  That was a good win, but Florida is down this season, and that game is always played closer to the vest between these in-state rivals.  Anything can happen when they get together.

There are a few performances at home by the Seminoles this year that show they are extremely vulnerable.  They only beat The Citadel 66-55 as 20-point favorites, beat Charleston Southern 58-47 in a game that didn't even have a line, and beat Stetson 63-59 in another unlined game.  They also lost to Northeastern 73-76 as 9.5-point home favorites.

Florida State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 65 or fewer points in four straight games.  FSU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Hokies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC foes.  Take Virginia Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska +10.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are showing great value as double-digit underdogs to the Iowa Hawkeyes Monday.  After winning 11 of their final 14 regular season games last year, the Huskers went to the NCAA Tournament for the first time ssince 1998.

They returned four starters from that team with big expectations this year.  Obviously, they are not happy with their 8-5 start up to this point, but because they have underachieved they are clearly undervalued entering conference play.  All five of their losses have come by 10 points or less, too.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have also underachieved from their lofty preseason expectations.  They are just 10-4 right now, but they are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their 71-65 upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten opener.  This is a team that has suffered three of four losses by 12 points or more.

This has been a very closely-contested series since Nebraska joined the Big 12.  In fact, four of the five meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or less with Nebraska winning two of them in upsets.  This may be the best team Nebraska has had yet, too.

Nebraska is 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a conference loss.  Iowa is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Iowa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Big Ten foes.  The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Nebraska Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  This was one of my sleeper teams in the Western Conference, and at 17-16, they sit just 1.5 games out of the No. 8 spot in the West.  If they were playing in the East, the Pelicans would challenge for a conference title.

New Orleans comes into this game with Washington playing some of its best basketball of the season.  It has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes home wins over fellow West playoff contenders San Antonio (97-90), Phoenix (110-106) and Houston (111-83).

Washington knows all about how tough the West is because it has lost three straight road games to Western Conference foes.  It lost 87-114 at Dallas, 102-109 at Oklahoma City, and 92-101 at San Antonio in its last three games overall.  Another loss here is likely, and I expect it to be by more than 3 points.

The Pelicans are going to be out for revenge here.  They will be looking to put an end to a six-game losing streak to Washington in this series.  That includes an 80-83 road loss as 4-point underdogs in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on November 29th.

New Orleans is 11-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game.  Washington is just 8-7 on the road where it is getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  The Pelicans are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 home games revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Wizards are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with New Orleans Monday.

20* Notre Dame/UNC ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +8

The No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country in 2014-15.  They have opened 14-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral court to Providence (74-75) by a single point.

The Fighting Irish returned four starters from last season, including Jerian Grant, who missed all but the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue.  He was their best player last year as he averaged 19.0 points and 6.2 assists per game before getting hurt.

Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 17.9 points and 6.2 assists.  Zach Auguste (14.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg) combine with Grant to form one of the best starting lineups in the nation.

North Carolina has proven to be vulnerable this year against some of the better teams that it has faced.  It already has three losses on the year.  It lost at Kentucky 70-84, at home to Iowa 55-60, and on a neutral court to Butler 66-74.  It has no business laying this many points to a better Notre Dame squad.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 10-0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Notre Dame Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Josh Smith effect is the real deal.  He waived and signed by Houston, and the Detroit Pistons proceed to go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall.  He was simply a cancer on this team, and it's been amazing to watch what the Pistons have done without him.

Not only are they winning, they are dominating.  All four of their wins during this streak came by 10 points or more with three of those coming on the road.  They beat Indiana (119-109) at home, and Cleveland (103-80), Orlando (109-86) and New York (97-81) on the road.  The Pistons are winning by an average of 18.0 points.  They are averaging 12.6 points more than they did before the shake-up and are allowing 12.1 fewer.

Extending their win streak to five for the first time since Dec. 4-12, 2009, certainly seems possible against the Kings (14-19), who have allowed an average of 111.7 points over a nine-game stretch in which each opponent has reached the century mark.  The last time they didn't allow 100 was Dec. 13, when the Pistons won 95-90 in Sacramento for their 9th victory in the last 10 meetings.

Sacramento is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Kings are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Sacramento is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Kings are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Detroit.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* Lions/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Detroit +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys come into the playoffs way overvalued. They are obviously one of the better teams in the NFL, but asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is too much. That’s why I am siding with the Detroit Lions as underdogs in this one. Dallas is overvalued due to the way it finished the season, while Detroit is undervalued due to its finish.

I really look at these teams as pretty much equals. So, on a neutral field, the line should be set close to a pick ‘em. Give the Cowboys three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be closer to Dallas -3 or -4 at the most. The numbers would also indicate that these teams are equals. It’s just that the betting public loves to back the Cowboys when they are good, so you can get some value by going against them.

Obviously, the public is all over the Cowboys after their strong finish. They went a perfect 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall, making backers a ton of money. However, you have to consider that the Cowboys actually played better on the road than they did at home this year. They were 8-0 on the road compared to 4-4 at home.

Detroit won four of its final five games to finish strong as well, but its 20-30 loss to the Packers is what sticks out to the betting public the most coming into this game. Well, the Packers simply don’t lose at home as they went 8-0 at home this season. The Lions haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 1991 either, so I don’t look at that as a bad loss. That game was actually tied 14-14 in the second half before the Packers pulled away late.

When you look at the numbers, you could argue that the Lions are the better team. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 39.9 yards per game. The Cowboys are a very good team too, but they are 8th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game.

The Lions certainly have the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 17.6 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 300.9 yards per game. The Cowboys allow 22.0 points and 355.1 yards per game to rank 19th in total defense. The Lions allow 5.1 yards per play against teams that average 5.6 yards per play, while the Cowboys give up 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 5.7 yards per play. The YPP stat really tells a lot about how good a defense is.

The only reason the Cowboys haven’t put up worse numbers overall defensively is because their offense possesses the ball for nearly 33 minutes per game, while their defense only plays 27 minutes per contest. That’s because Dallas has a great rushing attack that averages 147 yards per game. Well, no team is better equipped to stop the run than the Lions. They rank 1st in the league in rushing defense, giving up just 69.3 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

There has been some huge news come out of Detroit as of this writing. Ndamukong Suh was originally suspended for this game after stepping on Aaron Rodgers. Well, he appealed that suspension and won, which means that he will play in this game. There’s no denying that Suh is one of the dirtiest players in the game, but he is also one of the best defensive tackles in the league. His presence on the field will be huge in stopping DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys.

Dallas is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. The Cowboys are 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight playoff games. The Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 January games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Take the Lions Sunday.

Note - If you have the option, I would recommend buying the Lions to +7.  As of this publishing, the Lions are at +6.5 and +7 in most places.  I didn't have the option of putting the pick in at +7, so I went with the +7.5 option at -125.  My actual bet is on the Lions +7 (-115).  I'd still recommend the Lions at +6.5 if you don't have the option to buy points.

15* Pac-12 Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +12

The 10th-ranked Utah Utes are off to a great 11-2 start this season.  However, with this start comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are clearly overvalued here as 12-point favorites against the UCLA Bruins tonight.

UCLA (8-6) has taken a step back from last year.  In fact, it is mired in a four-game losing streak, and it has failed to cover the spread in six straight coming in.  That obviously has the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Bruins, which is why they are showing such great value here as it's highly unlikely that they fail to cover a 7th straight.

A closer look at their losing streak reveals some elite competition.  They lost at home to Gonzaga, on a neutral court to Kentucky, and on the road to both Alabama (50-56) and Colorado (56-62) by 6 points each.  They were an underdog in all four games, so they were expected to lose each.

The Utes are a tired team right now.  This will be their 3rd game in 6 days, which is very rare for college teams.  Meanwhile, this will be UCLA's 2nd game in the last 7 days, so it will be well-rested and ready to go.  Not to mention the Bruins will be more motivated for a win today than they have been all season as they try and end this rare four-game skid.

Plays on an underdog (UCLA) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in January games are 116-67 (63.4%) ATS since 1997.  UCLA has won three of its last four meetings with Utah with its lone loss coming by 5 points at Utah last season.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves Money Line -105

The Minnesota Timberwolves are highly motivated to put an end to their 10-game losing streak tonight as they host the Utah Jazz.  They have been really close to ending this streak here of late, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall that includes a 4-point loss to Denver, a 6-point loss to Utah and a 3-point loss to Sacramento.

That makes this a revenge game for the Timberwolves, who lost 94-100 at Utah as 7-point underdogs on December 30th.  Playing the Jazz less than a week later, the Timberwolves are simply going to want this game more.  I look for them to put an end to their losing streak with a home victory Saturday night.

This is a very tough spot for Utah.  It fought back from a huge deficit against Atlanta last night, only to lose by a final of 92-98 as 4.5-point home underdogs.  Now, these tired Jazz are going to have a tough time matching the energy level of the young Timberwolves, especially considering they just beat them less than a week ago.

The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Minnesota.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Florida) +8

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15 under veteran head coach Jim Larranaga.  They are off to a 10-3 start that has included wins over Florida, Charlotte (twice) and Illinois among others.

I believe the Hurricanes coming into their ACC opener with Virginia undervalued because they let their guard down here of late.  They have lost three of their last five games, but were able to get back on track with a 67-40 beat down of College of Charleston as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  Look for them to build off of that performance at home here.

Virginia enters the ACC opener overvalued due to its perfect 12-0 start that has earned it the No. 3 ranking in the country.  Obviously, with an unbeaten start and a No. 3 ranking come expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  These expectations are just very tough to live up to with the Cavaliers laying eight points on the road to Miami.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  In fact, Virginia is 0-6 all-time at Miami having never won there.  While the Cavaliers may end that trend, they're not going to do so in blowout fashion.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* ECU/Florida Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on East Carolina +7

The East Carolina Pirates are chomping at the bit at an opportunity to play a team from the SEC in the Birmingham Bowl and to prove that they are the real deal, just as they have against a few other Power 5 conference teams throughout the regular season. The Gators, meanwhile, are not happy to be here as they had much higher expectations coming into the year.

Due to underachieving for a second consecutive season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp was fired. The interim head coach will be defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will also be out of a job at season’s end. That’s because new head coach Jim McElwain has already hired Mississippi State’s Geoff Collins to replace Durkin as defensive coordinator next season. So, the Gators are really in a state of limbo here, and I don’t expect them to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to put away ECU by more than a touchdown.

The Gators face an East Carolina offense that can put up points in bunches. The Pirates rank 5th in the FBS with 532.8 yards per game and tied for 14th with an average of 37.2 points. Their passing game was second with 367.3 yards per game. They didn’t just put up these numbers against weak competition, either.

In three consecutive matchups against Power 5 conference programs South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, ECU averaged 581.3 yards and 40.3 points. It lost 33-23 at then-No. 21 South Carolina before a 28-21 win at then-No. 17 Virginia Tech and a 70-41 home blowout of North Carolina. Florida suffered a 23-20 overtime home loss to South Carolina on November 15 for the team’s only common opponent.

Shane Carden may be the most underrated quarterback in the entire country. He is completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,309 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, while also rushing for six scores on the season. The Pirates have three very good receivers in Justin Hardy (110 receptions, 1,334 yards, 9 TD), Cam Worthy (47, 886, 3 TD) and Isaiah Jones (75, 766, 5 TD) for Carden to get the ball to. Breon Allen (869 yards, 6.5/carry) and Chris Hairston (455 yards, 7.3/carry) are explosive in the running game as well.

Yes, the Gators have one of the better defenses in the country, but their offense is the reason why they aren’t going to put away the Pirates by a touchdown or more. Florida failed to crack 300 yards in five of 11 games this season. It ranked 11th in the SEC in total offense (370.2 yards/game), and its 12th-ranked passing attack (180.7 yards/game) never built any momentum in league play.

A big reason why the Pirates are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 163 yards per game this season is because they have actually been respectable defensively as well. They are giving up just 25.7 points per game and 369.7 yards per game this season. They did play the easier schedule than Florida, but what they did against those three Power 5 teams shows that they can play with anyone.

East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three years. They are coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. ECU is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

20* Raptors/Warriors Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -4.5

This is a matchup between the top team from the Eastern Conference in the Toronto Raptors (24-8) against the top team from the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors (25-5).  I'll gladly side with the top team from the West at home as only 4.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Toronto would not be anywhere close to first place if it played in the stacked West.  What the Warriors have done up to this point is very impressive given that they have played the much tougher schedule.  To go 25-5 is no small feat in the West.

I was able to fade the Warriors with some success following their 16-game winning streak as they were overvalued.  However, after going just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS in their last four games, the Warriors are back to being undervalued here tonight as only 4.5-point home favorites.

The Raptors, on the other hand, are overvalued after winning eight of their last 10 games overall coming in.  Well, they are a tired team right now because they are in the midst of a 6-game road trip.  This is Game No. 5 of the trip that has seen them lose at Chicago 120-129 and at Portland 97-102.

Golden State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings.  The Warriors are 9-0 in their last nine home meetings with the Raptors dating back to 2004 with all nine wins coming by 6 points or more.  Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +17.5

USC came into this season undervalued after going just 2-16 in Pac-12 play in Jamie Enfield's first season on the job last year.  Remember, Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 two years ago, and he has a very talented freshman class leading the way at USC in 2014-15 as he's starting to get his players in place.

The Trojans are off to a respectable 8-4 start this season entering conference play while going 7-5 ATS in the process.  Three of their four losses have come by 12 points or less as they have only been beaten by more than 17.5 points one time, which is the spread for this game against Utah.

What really stood out to me about USC's 12 games up to this point is that it they have actually played their best two games in their only two true road games.  The Trojans beat New Mexico 66-54 as 9-point road underdogs, and they also beat Boston College 75-71 as 7-point road dogs.  That's a great sign heading into this game.

Utah is a team I had circled as undervalued coming into 2014-15.  It barely missed the NCAA Tournament last year and lost a lot of close games.  Well, it clearly has been undervalued up to this point as it has gone 10-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.

However, I believe it's now time to fade the Utes as they are overvalued entering conference play after this fast start.  They are also currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country, and with a Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to.

Utah did beat USC 84-66 at home and 79-71 on the road last year.  That 18-point home win is a little concerning, but not when you consider that there's no question the Trojans are vastly improved over a year ago.  Utah is also slightly improved, but not as much as the Trojans are, so they should be able to stay within 17.5 this time around.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (allowing less than 40%), dominant rebounding team (at least plus-6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

USC is 7-0 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last two seasons.  It is actually beating these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  Utah does play at a very slow pace, which works in our favor here as it will be tough for the Utes to win by 18 or more because of it.  Also, the Utes are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points.  Take USC Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +4.5

At 23-8 on the season and in second place in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks are obviously off to a very surprising start this year.  However, with that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Hawks simply cannot live up to.  They have no business laying 4.5 points on the road to a Western Conference opponent as the Hawks would just be a mediocre team if they were playing in the West.

The Utah Jazz (11-21) got off to a horrible start this season, but I really like the way they are playing coming into this one.  They have gone 5-2 straight up in their last seven games overall, and one of their losses was a 4-point loss at the LA Clippers as 12-point underdogs.

The five wins have been very impressive.  They went into Miami and won 105-87 as 3.5-point dogs, won at Orlando 101-94 as 4-point dogs, won at Memphis 97-91 as 8-point dogs, beat the 76ers 88-71 at home as 10-point favorites, and beat the Timberwolves 100-94 at home as 7-point favorites.  The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.

The Jazz are going to be out for revenge on the Hawks considering they have lost seven straight in this series.  Their last two losses have come by a combined 5 points, too.  That includes a 97-100 road loss in their first meeting of 2014-15 as 7-point underdogs back on November 12th.

Atlanta is 8-27 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on two days' rest.  Utah is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games after four straight games where it outrebounded its opponent by 5 or more boards.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game overvalued as road favorites over the Orlando Magic.  Brooklyn (15-16) is getting a lot of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers after winning five of its last six games overall while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

A closer look at this stretch shows that the Nets have beaten some very suspect competition.  Four of their wins came against Detroit (by 5), Denver (by 6), and Sacramento (by 8) at home, as well as Boston (by 2) on the road.  Yes, the Nets did beat the Bulls on the road by 14 last time out, but the Bulls were playing a second of a back-to-back and were tired.  The Nets are now in a letdown spot after that big win as well.

The Magic are just 13-22 this season, but they have gone a profitable 19-16 ATS because they have lost so many close games this year.  They are starting to turn some of those close losses into wins here of late, and I really believe this team will be a profitable one to back going forward.

Orlando has won three of its last five games overall.  It beat Boston at home while going on the road and topping both Charlotte and Miami for its three victories during this stretch.  I also believe the Magic are undervalued due to their 23-point loss to the red-hot Pistons last time out, which the betting public is putting too much stock in.  The Magic were playing their 4th game in 5 days and had nothing left in the tank.  With two days off since that loss, they'll come back fresh and ready to go tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Brooklyn and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team has won each of the last six meetings.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Brooklyn.  Take the Magic Friday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee TaxSlayer Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) are extremely excited to be playing in this bowl game after going 5-7 each of the last three years and missing out. This will be their first bowl game since 2010, and they’ll be looking for their first win in a bowl since 2007. There’s no question that the Vols are going to be highly motivated because of it, and I look for them to get that elusive bowl win over Iowa this year.

Not many teams could benefit from bowl practice as much as this Tennessee squad. Head coach Butch Jones has put together two of the top recruiting classes in the country in his two years here, and this is still a very young team. In fact, the Vols had to break in five new starters along the offensive line, and four new starters along the defensive line this year. They did a tremendous job of getting to a bowl game with all of this youth.

What makes this bowl berth even more impressive is the fact that Tennessee played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Just playing in the SEC makes the schedule tough, but the Vols also had to play three more bowl teams out of conference. They beat Utah State 38-7 and Arkansas State 34-19, but lost at Oklahoma 10-34. They also drew two of the best teams from the SEC West in Alabama and Ole Miss.

To no surprise, this young Tennessee team got better as the season went on. In fact, it was sitting at 3-5 needing three wins in its final four games to get to a bowl, and that’s precisely what it did. The Vols beat South Carolina 45-42 on the road, Kentucky 50-16 at home, and Vanderbilt 24-17 on the road in the season finale to get in. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-29 to SEC East champ Missouri.

The Vols averaged 35 points per game over their final four games of the season. Their offense really took off once Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley at quarterback with five games to go. He even played well in a 20-34 home loss to Alabama, and then proceeded to step up his game the rest of the way. Dobbs finished the season completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 393 yards and six scores in just five games. It’s his dual-threat ability that has really helped out this offense.

Tennessee has also been very good on the other side of the football. It is giving up just 23.9 points, 359.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 30.1 points, 400 yards per game and 5.8 per play. So, the Vols are holding their opponents to 6.2 points, 40 yards and 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season. This is the sign of a really good defense and one that will be able to limit a weak Iowa offense.

The Hawkeyes had a schedule that was set up to make a run at the Big Ten West division title this season. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the Big Ten East, and they got to play both Maryland and Indiana from that division. They also got to host fellow West contenders Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Well, they managed to go just 4-4 within the Big Ten despite playing such a soft schedule.

Iowa went 1-4 against bowl teams this season, while Tennessee went 3-6 against bowl teams, which just shows you how much more difficult of a schedule the Volunteers played this year. Iowa lost to Nebraska (34-37) and Wisconsin (24-26) at home, while also falling at Minnesota (14-51) and at Maryland (31-38) on the road. Its only win over a bowl team was a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s six losses to bowl teams came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri. The Vols lost three of those six games by a combined 12 points.

Tennessee is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Vols are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games off two more more consecutive ATS losses. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Bet Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl Friday.

15* Ohio State/Alabama New Year's Day BAILOUT on Alabama -8.5

Alabama went through a gauntlet of a schedule this season to win the SEC in what is easily the best conference in the country. As a result, it is certainly battle-tested, and I would argue that it has played three to four teams this year that are better than Ohio State. Meanwhile, this will be by far the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced all season.

I personally do not believe the Buckeyes are one of the best four teams in the country. They simply benefited from playing a cake schedule, and Vegas seems to agree. There were 10 teams from the Big Ten that made bowl games this year, and all 10 of them are underdogs. That just goes to show you what Vegas thinks of the Big Ten this year. Ohio State may have won the conference, but that’s nothing compared to Alabama winning the SEC.

What has impressed me about Alabama the most this year is that it has had one of its best offenses in school history. It averages 37.1 points and 488.4 yards per game this season. Freshman Blake Sims has played like a seasoned veteran. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards and six scores.

If you look past Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, you find that its defense was not playing well at all in the four games previous. It had given up at least 24 points in four straight games, and an average of 28.3 points per game during this stretch. It has given up 24 or more points a whopping eight times this year in 13 games. There’s no question the Crimson Tide are going to have their way with this Ohio State defense.

I would argue that Alabama has the best defense in the country when you factor in strength of schedule. It ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game while ranking 11th in total defense at 312.1 yards per game. It is 2nd against the run at 88.4 yards per game and 2.8 per carry allowed. Alabama’s ability to stop the run is going to be the biggest reason as to why it wins and covers.

Ohio State relies very heavily on its rushing attack as it runs the ball 45 times per game for 261 yards compared to 27 pass attempts per game. It has to be an even more run-heavy team now that J.T. Barrett is out for this bowl game with an injury. Yes, backup Cardale Jones played well against Wisconsin, but he had the element of surprise with the Badgers. The Crimson Tide now have game tape on him and will certainly know what to expect. Jones won’t be nearly as effective against the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.

The Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Alabama is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games following three or more consecutive wins. The Crimson Tide are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Roll with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8

There are many that believe the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) are not one of the best four teams in the country. They have won so many close games this season, seven by six points or less in fact, so their argument does have some weight. However, this team has played a much tougher schedule than they did a year ago, and I’m not so sure that this team isn’t as good as the one that won the national title last year.

There is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win games. Florida State has now won a whopping 29 straight games dating back over the past three seasons. Now, the Seminoles find themselves in the role of the underdog for the first time in the last two years. They are getting no respect from the books in this game, and Jimbo Fisher will be using this as serious motivation for his players. While they may ultimately have their winning streak come to an end against the Ducks, I don’t believe it will be by 9 points or more, which is what it would take for Oregon to cover this ridiculous 8-point spread.

Oregon comes in way overvalued due to not only winning eight straight games, but also covering the spread in eight straight. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Ducks. This has forced oddsmakers to set the line for this game higher than it should be. It’s usually a wise move to fade the public, and that’s precisely what I’ll recommend doing in this game Thursday.

Florida State, on the other hand, actually comes in undervalued despite its perfect 13-0 record this year. That’s because it has gone just 3-10 ATS in all games. It simply created expectations for itself after winning the national title that it could not live up to this year. The Seminoles have been favored in every game they have played this year, and most of the time by too many points. That’s why there has been so much value in going against them up to this point. That fade value is now all gone, and it’s time to jump back on them.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense that puts up 34.8 points, 434.8 yards and 6.4 yards per play against opponents that allow just 25.3 points, 360 yards and 5.3 per play. So, they are scoring 10 points per game and averaging 75 yards per game more than their opponents allow on the season. Jameis Winston just finds a way to get it done when the game is in the balance, and my money is on him to do so on the biggest of stages again in this one.

Oregon has put up some gaudy numbers offensively this year. However, you have to factor in who they have played before you get too excited about this offense. They have played defenses that allow 31.7 points and 432 yards per game on the season. That is a much softer slate than what the Seminoles have been up against this year. I would only give the Ducks a slight edge on offense.

Defensively, the edge has to go to the Seminoles, who are giving up 23.0 points and 378.3 yards per game. Oregon allows 413.8 yards per game this season as its stop unit simply has not been that good. I believe one of the biggest reasons the Seminoles have a chance to win this game is their run defense, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry. Unlike most other teams the Ducks face, the Seminoles actually have the athleticism and speed defensively to match up with Oregon’s offense.

Florida State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in. The Seminoles are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. It has won six straight bowl games coming in and has not lost a bowl game by double-digits since 2003.  Bet Florida State in the Rose Bowl Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/Auburn Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -6.5

I was one of the biggest Auburn haters coming into the season that you will find. They were extremely fortunate to win the SEC and make it to the national title game last year as they won a ridiculous amount of close games along the way and got every break to go in their favor. Their season win total was set at 9.5 and it was one of my favorite ‘under’ bets coming into the year.

I wasn’t so sure I was going to cash that bet until the Tigers lost three of their final four games to close out the season. It was also very profitable to fade this team all year against the spread as they wound up with just a 4-8 ATS record. So, my instinct was correct on them being overvalued this season. However, I now am reversing roles and looking to back them as they are undervalued coming into the bowl game.

Indeed, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven. They have burned the betting public time and time again, and now the public wants nothing to do with them. When this happens, you can find a lot of value in backing these teams, and I believe that to be the case in this game. There’s no way Auburn should be laying less than a touchdown to Wisconsin.

For starters, the Tigers play in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West. Had they played in any other division in America, they would have probably won that division. There are no easy outs in the SEC West, and Auburn found that out the hard way, losing four games to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

I actually faded Auburn in the Alabama game thinking that the Tigers were going to get rolled. While the Crimson Tide did end up covering in an 11-point home win as 10-point favorites, I never felt like they deserved to cover as they trailed for most of the game. Auburn actually racked up 630 total yards on that Alabama defense, outgaining the Crimson Tide by 91 total yards in the game. It was that performance that makes me know that the Tigers are still a very good team and one of the best in the country.

Wisconsin beat up on a very easy schedule this season coming from the Big Ten, which is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. It managed to avoid BOTH Ohio State and Michigan State from the other division, and that fact alone made it the favorites to win its division. It wasn’t easy as the Badgers had to beat Minnesota 34-24 at home in the season finale to get into the championship game.

It was in that championship game that the Badgers’ true colors showed. They were outplayed in every phase of the game by Ohio State, losing that game 59-0 while getting outgained by 300 total yards. The Badgers managed just 258 yards and gave up 558 yards. I believe that Auburn is a better team than Ohio State, and while I don’t expect the Tigers to win this game by 59, I do expect them to win by a touchdown or more with relative ease.

Auburn was very good on both sides of the football this year. It put up 35.8 points, 489.6 yards per game and 6.7 per play against teams that only gave up 23.5 points, 371 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Tigers gave up 26.1 points, 389.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that averaged 31.4 points, 417 yards per game and 5.9 per play.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s numbers look good on paper, but when you factor in the strength of opponents played, they no longer look that great. They played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their 10 wins coming against the likes of Western Illinois, Bowling Green, South Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Not one of those teams is near the caliber of two of the three teams they lost to in LSU and Ohio State.  It also lost to Northwestern 14-20.

Auburn is 9-1 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in its last game over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 15.5 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their last game. They are winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Take Auburn in the Outback Bowl Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder get back Kevin Durant tonight from a six-game absence due to an ankle injury.  He practiced fully Monday and Tuesday and head coach Scott Brooks said he looked "lively" in practice and is ready to go.

Oklahoma City will be highly motivated for a win tonight considering, at 15-17, it is looking up at Phoenix (18-15) for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  I look for the Thunder to roll the Suns tonight, especially given the tough situation that Phoenix is in.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing to the Pelicans 106-110 last night.  Meanwhile, the Thunder come in well-rested and ready to go as they've had two days off since last playing on Sunday.  They will bring more energy to this game in front of a raucous home crowd that is anticipating Durant's return.

I also believe the Suns are overvalued right now due to going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I faded them with success last night by backing the Pelicans, and I'll be fading them again tonight.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so they have been beating up on some soft competition to say the least.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight.  The Suns have lost 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder have won seven straight home meetings with the Suns by 24, 7, 31, 18, 11, 10 and 4 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.8 points per game in their last eight home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* GA Tech/Mississippi State New Year's Eve No-Brainer on Mississippi State -6.5

I would be willing to argue that the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) are one of the top four teams in the country. Obviously, with two losses, they weren’t going to get into the four-team playoff over conference champions with one or fewer losses. However, finishing in second place in the toughest division in the country is no small feat. The Bulldogs had their chances to make the playoff after a 9-0 start, but they lost two of their final three games of the season.

I believe losing two of their final three games has the Bulldogs actually undervalued coming into this game. The betting public has simply forgotten about them. But when you look at those losses, you find that they are not bad at all. They only lost 20-25 at Alabama as 10-point underdogs, and 17-31 at Ole Miss as 2.5-point favorites. They actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 93 yards on the road, so that there shows that they can play with what everyone perceives as the best team in the country. Had either of those games against Alabama and Ole Miss been played in Starkville, they likely would have been different outcomes.

Mississippi State went 5-2 against bowl teams this season. It beat LSU (34-29) and South Alabama (35-3) on the road, while also topping Texas A&M (38-23), Auburn (38-23) and Arkansas (17-10) at home. This was obviously one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country, and I’d have to say that the Bulldogs handled themselves pretty well. They are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game because it seems like the national media has simply forgotten about them.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued. It has gone 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. It beat Georgia 30-24 on the road in the final week of the regular season. Well, the Bulldogs were deflated coming into that game after falling short of making the SEC Championship Game with Missouri’s win over Arkansas in the season finale. They also only lost 35-37 to Florida State after scoring a touchdown with only seconds remaining to make that score appear closer than it really was.

Mississippi State’s offense was nothing short of elite this season. It put up 37.2 points, 506.2 yards per game and 6.6 per play to rank 9th in the country in total offense. Its opposing defenses only gave up 27.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season. So, it outscored its opposing defenses’ season averages by 10 points per game, and outgained them by 108 yards per game. Georgia Tech’s defense allows 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 yards per play.

However, the reason I really love this matchup for the Bulldogs is their defense. They struggled against the pass this season, but they were elite against the run. The Bulldogs only allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. They give up 285 passing yards per game, but that’s not going to come into play here because Georgia Tech only averages 135 passing yards per game.

Plus, the Yellow Jackets are expected to be without leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (35 receptions, 715 yards, 7 TD), who accounted for roughly half of their receiving totals on the year. They average 334 rushing yards per game this season in their tripe-option. Well, give the Bulldogs over a month to prepare for it, and their dominant run defense will be up to the task.

Bowl games are a huge disadvantage for triple-option teams. Georgia Tech lost to another SEC team in Ole Miss 17-25 in the Music City Bowl last year. They were held to 298 total yards and gave up 477 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 179 yards in the loss. They only mustered 151 rushing yards on 49 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry against the Rebels last year.

The ACC has not shown very well in bowl games this postseason.  They are 3-5 in bowl games with their only wins coming from VA Tech over Cincinnati, NC State over UCF, and Clemson over Oklahoma.  Both Cincinnati and UCF play in the weak AAC, while Oklahoma did not show up against Clemson.  

What stands out to me is that the ACC is 0-2 against SEC teams as Miami lost to South Carolina 21-24, while Louisville was blown out by Georgia 37-14 last night.  Also, the SEC has been dominant in bowl games this year, going 4-1 up to this points.  This conference is just on another level than the rest, and that will be apparent in this game as well.

Dan Mullen is 11-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average at least 5.25 yards per carry as the coach of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  This trend just goes to show how much they struggle in bowl games because they run a triple-option, which is so easy to prepare for when you have extra time.  Bet Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +19

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value today as 19-point underdogs to the Wisconsin Badgers in their Big Ten opener.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season and just aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers today.

Penn State is a legitimate NCAA tournament contender with four starters back from last year and it's 12-1 start.  It's only loss came in overtime to a very good Charlotte team by a final of 97-106 earlier this season.  It has reeled off 10 straight wins since.

Wisconsin is way overvalued here due to its 12-1 start and its No. 4 national ranking.  The Badgers are certainly one of the better teams in the country, but the Big Ten is overrated as a whole, and the Badgers are considered the best team in the conference.

Wisconsin hasn't exactly blown out the opposition this year when facing quality teams such as Penn State.  It is 3-1 against the likes of Georgetown (68-65), Oklahoma (69-56), Duke (70-80) and California (68-56), not beating any of those teams by more than 13 points.

What I really love about this play as well is the fact that the Nittany Lions will be the more prepared team.  They last played on December 22nd in a 69-49 home win over Dartmouth, so they have had over a week to get ready for Wisconsin.  The Badgers last played on December 28th in a 68-56 home win over Buffalo, so they have only had two days to prepare for Penn State.

Penn State has played Wisconsin very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.  As a result, Penn State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine meetings with Wisconsin since 2010.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans (15-15) are staring up at the Phoenix Suns (18-14) for that No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  That makes this a very important game for them when you figure that these two teams are going to be battling for that 8th spot all season, and it could come down to a tiebreaker.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in my book.  It has an excellent lineup that can beat you a number of different ways.  Anthony Davis (24.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) is having an MVP-caliber season.  Tyreke Evans (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.3 rpg) and Jrue Holiday (15.5 ppg, 7.2 apg) create shots for their teammates like Ryan Anderson (15.3 ppg), who is one of the best 3-point shooters in the game for a big man.

Not only will the Pelicans be motivated to try and pull a game closer to the Suns for that 8th seed, they are also out for revenge in this game as well.  They lost all four meetings with the Suns last year and have not forgotten.  Look for them to get on the board with a win in the first meeting between these teams of the 2014-15 season.

The Suns could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  That's because they are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Well, those six wins came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so it's not like they are beating up on high-quality opponents.  It's now time to fade the Suns.

New Orleans is 9-4 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 5.6 points per game.  It is scoring 107.9 points at home on 47.9% shooting.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take New Orleans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Cleveland Cavaliers as underdogs this season.  I'm going to take advantage Tuesday as 4-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cavaliers could not possibly be more undervalued at any point in the season than they are right now.  They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games overall, and they have lost two of their last three in ugly fashion to Miami (91-101) and Detroit (80-103).

Because of this recent stretch of poor play, I look for the Cavaliers to come out highly motivated for a victory in this game tonight.  Also, they just lost recently at home to Atlanta 98-127 on December 17th in what was their worst loss of the year.  They obviously haven't forgotten less than two weeks later and will be out for revenge in a big way.

Conversely, Atlanta could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has won 15 of its last 17 games overall while going 12-4-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to jump on this team.  I'm looking to fade them when this happens.

Kyrie Irving is expected to return from a two-game absence.  A knee injury has kept him out of action ever since the 4th quarter of a loss to Miami on Christmas Day.  He missed the teams 98-89 win at Orlando and the team's 80-103 loss to Detroit. 

Having a healthy Irving back will make a huge difference for this team going forward.  Even if for whatever reason he doesn't play tonight like he's expected to, Lebron James and company have enough to get it done.

Atlanta is 5-17 ATS when playing with two days of rest over the last two seasons.  The Hawks are 20-37 ATS in their last 57 home games following one or more consecutive wins.  The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +7.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the bowl season way undervalued. That’s because they completely fell apart down the stretch after having their national title hopes crushed in a 27-31 loss at Florida State following their 6-0 start. The referees overturned what would have been a game-winning touchdown for the Fighting Irish in the closing seconds, and this team never really recovered from that moment-on.

They went on to beat Navy in a close one 49-39, but then lost each of their final four games to close out the season. They lost 31-55 at Arizona State, 40-43 to Northwestern, 28-31 to Louisville and 14-49 to USC. Obviously, the betting public sees these results and will be quick to fade the Fighting Irish in the bowl game. That has created a ton of line value for us to back them catching a full touchdown, and more in some places, against LSU.

Without question, Notre Dame (7-5) is still one of the most talented teams in the country. It simply self-destructed down the stretch in committing 12 turnovers in its final four games. The collapse was somewhat predictable after that loss to Florida State. You can bet that veteran quarterback Everett Golson is going to take it upon himself to get this team back up off the mat and to put forth the kind of performance that his talent warrants in the bowl game.

Also, I love Brian Kelly as a head coach for a bowl, because he is one of the best motivators in the country. Kelly will be pulling out all the stops on his players to try and get them ready to put their best foot forward against LSU. This is one final chance for the Irish to erase the sour taste out of their mouths from the four-game losing streak to close out the season. If they don’t, these players know it’s going to be a long offseason.

I certainly have to question the motivation of these LSU players coming into this bowl game. They are used to playing in big-time bowl games year in and year out, and they certainly won’t be all that excited to be playing in the Music City Bowl because of it. This is a team that had won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons. Their No. 23 ranking is their lowest heading into the bowl season that I can remember since Les Miles took over.

LSU (8-4) did have a propensity of playing in close games against most of its top competition this season. It had six games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Those six include wins over Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17), as well as losses to Alabama (13-20) and Mississippi State (29-34).  So, the Tigers went a fortunate 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less.

The reason the Tigers play in so many close games is because they have a solid defense that can keep them in games, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers are putting up just 27.6 points, 383.4 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that allow 26.4 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play. You can tell from these numbers that the Tigers are no more than an average offense.

There’s no question that the Fighting Irish have a huge edge on that side of the ball. They are scoring 33.0 points per game, averaging 444.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 26.0 points, 379 yards and 5.3 per play. Aside from the turnovers, Golson has really had a fine season. He is completing 60.1% of his passes for 3,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also rushing for 280 yards and eight scores.

I’ll gladly back Golson over LSU sophomore Anthony Jennings in this one. The Tigers have struggled at the quarterback position all season, and I would argue that Jennings is a worse starter than Brandon Harris, who had completed 55.6% of his passes for 452 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings is only completing 48.8% of his passes for 1,460 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven picks. He is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt compared to Harris’ 10.0 per attempt. Also, Jennings has rushed for only 284 yards while averaging 2.8 per carry without a touchdown.

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games when playing against a good team that wins between 60% and 75% of its games. LSU is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Bet Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl Tuesday.

Note - The above is my original analysis. I am writing this note on the morning of December 30th.  I just wanted to let you know that I still recommend Notre Dame +7.5 even though there is news that has come out recently that Golson will split time with Malik Zaire at QB in the bowl game.  I believe Brian Kelly made these plans just to keep things competitive in practice during this long bowl break.  It will be better for the team in the long haul.  It also gives LSU a lot more to prepare for, which is good strategy  by Kelly.  I still expect Golson to play most of this game.

15* Illinois/Michigan Big Ten No-Doubt Rout on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener for both teams.  I look for them to run away with this one.

The reason Michigan is so undervalued right now is because it has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes losses to some really bad teams that look terrible and are keeping the betting public from betting the Wolverines.  Now is the time to jump on them with the conference season starting.

I'm not sold that Illinois is a very good team this year, either.  It is 10-3 on the year with its 10 wins coming against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampston, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  The Fighting Illini have lost to the three best teams they have faced in Villanova, Miami and Oregon.

That gives both Michigan and Illinois two high-quality common opponents.  Illinois lost on a neutral court to Villanova (59-73) and Oregon (70-77), getting outscored by 21 points in the two losses.  Michigan beat Oregon (70-63) and lost to Villanova (55-60) on a neutral court, so it outscored those two teams by 2 points.

This has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Michigan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Illinois.  Couple that dominance with the common opponents faced, and we're getting a big-time bargain on the Wolverines as only 2-point home favorites here.

Illinois is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons.  Roll with Michigan Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +7

The Iowa Hawkeyes had big expectations coming into the year.  They returned three starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season and most of their key reserves as well.  Obviously, they haven't gotten off to the start they would have liked at 9-4, but as a result they are undervalued right now.

Iowa has played an extremely difficult schedule.  Its four losses have come to Texas, Syracuse, Iowa State and Northern Iowa.  Well, Iowa State (9-1) is currently ranked 9th, Texas (10-2) is ranked 11th, Northern Iowa (11-1) is ranked 23rd, and Syracuse is a power every year.

The Hawkeyes have also played another ranked team in No. 19 North Carolina (9-3).  That was its only true road game of the season, and it beat the Tar Heels 60-55 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  That gives Iowa and Ohio State a common opponent.  Ohio State lost to UNC 74-82 as 1-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Yes, the Buckeyes are 11-2 this year, but they aren't as strong as in year's past.  Their 11 wins have come against some extremely soft competition in UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead State, North Carolina A&T, Miami Ohio and Wright State.  They have lost to the two best teams they've faced in Louisville (55-64) and UNC (74-82).

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series in recent years.  In fact, the road team has gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Ohio State.

Iowa is 31-17 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 23-11 ATS off a home win over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Ohio State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Tennessee State +24

This play is more of a fade of TCU then a play on Tennessee State.  TCU is just way overvalued right now due to its 12-0 start, and it's time to fade the Horned Frogs in the role of the biggest favorites they have been all season.

TCU is a team that I had circled as undervalued coming into the season, and I've even backed them a few times with success already.  However, that value is now zapped up because this team has opened 12-0 and the betting public has caught on.

This is a great spot to fade the Horned Frogs.  This is a huge lookahead spot for them.  They start Big 12 play on January 3rd against West Virginia and will certainly be looking ahead to that game.  As a result, they won't have the kind of focus it takes to put away Tennessee State by more than 24 today.

Obviously, at 2-11, the betting public wants nothing to do with Tennessee State.  However, this is a team that has only lost twice by more than 21 this season, and those two came at Vanderbilt and at Virginia as 19-point and 34-point dogs, respectively. 

Nine of their 11 losses have come by 21 or fewer points.  That includes their last two games against some very good competition.  They lost by 18 at Middle Tennessee State (47-65) and by 21 at Tennessee (46-67) as 22-point dogs.  They are certainly capable of staying within 24 of the Horned Frogs today.

Lesser teams have stayed within 24 of TCU this season on the road.  The Horned Frogs only beat Prairie Vie A&M by 17, New Orleans by 15, Radford by 24, Furman by 11 and McNeese State by 18 to name a few of the teams that have stayed within 24 of them on the road.

TCU is 1-10 ATS versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or worse over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after three straight games where they made 40% of their shots or worse.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Tennessee State.  Take Tennessee State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Pacers UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this battle between Eastern Conference Central Division rivals in Chicago and Indiana.  These teams are very familiar with one another, which certainly favors the defense and has in recent meetings between these teams.

Indeed, the Bulls and Pacers have combined for 189 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have combined for 189, 166, 170, 204, 177, 171 and 189 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 180.9 points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

From a matchup perspective, the under is a good bet here as well.  Both teams love to play at slow paces.  The Pacers rank 21st in pace at 95.2 possessions per game and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.9 possessions per game.

Both teams have been extremely efficient defensively as well.  They both rank in the top 10 as the Pacers are 8th in allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulls are 9th allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  Indiana ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CHICAGO) - off two or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) to the UNDER since 1996.  Tthe UNDER is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

20* Bengals/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3.5

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this one. The Steelers have won three in a row, while the Bengals have won five of their last six. However, I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team and I look for them to put away the Bengals by four or more points Sunday night to get the cover.

Pittsburgh has really been on a mission this season. It was coming off two straight 8-8 campaigns where it fell short of the playoffs, but it has been determined to make the playoffs this year. Now that it has clinched a playoff spot, it wants more considering Cincinnati has taken over this division in recent years. This is the Steelers’ chance to prove that they are still the kings of the AFC North, and they get to do so at home, which is a huge advantage for them.

What Pittsburgh has done the last three weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. It has taken on three playoff contenders, and it has beaten them all by a touchdown or more. It started with a 42-21 win at Cincinnati on December 7th. The Steelers went on the road the next week and beat the Falcons 27-20. Then, last week, their No. 1 red zone defense came up huge as they limited the Chiefs to four field goals in a 20-12 home win.

Let’s take a look back at that 42-21 win by the Steelers over the Bengals. That game was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals by 135 total yards for the game. Their offense racked up 543 total yards in the win. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns.

That was one of many high-octane offensive performances from the Steelers this season. They are putting up 27.3 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 414.5 yards per game. Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 4,635 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bell has rushed for 1,341 yards and eight scores, while also catching 77 balls for 774 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bengals rely heavily on the run to move the football, averaging 135 rushing yards per game.  Well, the Steelers held them to just 86 yards on 21 carries in their first meeting of 2014.  The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 99.3 yards per game on the season, making this an excellent matchup for them.  Andy Dalton is going to have to try and beat them, and I don't believe he's capable of doing it.

While the Bengals have the better record than the Steelers at 10-4-1 compared to 10-5, there’s no question that when you look at the numbers, you find that the Steelers are the better team.  That will show up on the field again Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 60.9 yards per game. Cincinnati ranks just 20th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 11.5 yards per game.

Keep in mind that the Bengals will be working on a short week since they played the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 16. That’s another advantage the Steelers have coming into this one.  Also, Andy Dalton has been battling the flu all week and has missed practice time as a result.  The flu has also kept tight end Jermaine Gresham and defensive backs Terence Newman and Reggie Nelson out of practice.  All four guys are expected to play, but missing practice time on a short week like this is big, especially for Dalton.

Plays against road teams (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five years.

The Steelers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Thunder/Mavericks UNDER 211.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder square off Sunday in a game that I look to be very low-scoring in comparison to the total set of 211.5 points.  As a result, I'll back the UNDER believing the oddsmakers have set the bar too high for this game.

Since the Mavericks traded for Rajon Rondo, they actually have gotten worse offensively, but have been better on defense.  That was expected considering Rondo doesn't have the best offensive game outside of his ability to pass the ball, but he is one of the better defenders for his position in the NBA.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring these games have been between the Mavs and Thunder in recent meetings.  In their last 16 meetings, they have finished with 208 or fewer combined points 13 times.  The only three times they didn't combine for 208 or less, those games went into overtime. 

Those three were tied 111-111, 105-105, and 98-98 at the end of regulation.  So, not counting overtime, Oklahoma City and Dallas have combined for 210 or fewer points in 15 of their last 16 meetings.  That makes for a 15-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 211.5 points.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Rams +13

This is a massive number and if you are going to play this game, you certainly should be siding with the Rams and the 13 points. Yes, the Seahawks are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the No. 1 seed, but that’s also the reason they are laying so many points. Oddsmakers tend to overvalue teams with a lot to play for because the know the betting public tends to back these teams.

The St. Louis Rams would love nothing more than to pull off the upset and to end the Seahawks’ chances of getting home field. With the way they have been playing lately, they certainly are capable of hanging with the Seahawks. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall with wins over the Broncos, Raiders and Redskins. Two of their three losses came by 3 and 6 points to San Diego and Arizona, respectively.

Sure, they lost by 10 to the Giants last week, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game, which is why I was on the Giants +6.5 last week.  It was a hangover spot from their loss to Arizona the previous week, and it was a lookahead spot to this game against Seattle.  Plus, the Giants are playing great football right now having won three straight and having scored 24 or more points in five straight.  So, that 10-point loss is not as bad as it looks when you factor everything in.

Plus, the Rams have already proven they can hang with the Seahawks. They did just that back on October 19th as they pulled off the 28-26 upset at home despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Tre Mason rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to lead the way offensively. The defense held Marshawn Lynch to just 53 rushing yards on 18 carries in the win.

This St. Louis defense has been unreal here of late. It has not allowed a touchdown in three of its past four games overall. It beat Oakland 52-0 at home, Washington 24-0 on the road, and lost to Arizona 6-12 at home while limiting the Cardinals to just four field goals in the loss. I know last week’s performance against the Giants was not good defensively, but again, the Rams were looking ahead to this game.

Seattle is coming off a very gratifying win at Arizona last week by a final of 35-6. That game was for first place in the NFC West, and with the win, the Seahawks now control their own destiny. I know they still have a lot to play for this week, but the Seahawks are also in a potential letdown spot here after that big win over Arizona.

It’s going to be very hard for them to match the intensity they played with in that game, and also difficult to live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming in.  I really like fading teams who are on extended ATS win streaks because almost every time they are overvalued by oddsmakers once these streaks reach four, five games.  The betting public just cannot get enough of the Seahawks right now.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) – revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks are certainly overvalued due to their recent play and the perception that they’ll be out for revenge, and this trend just goes to show how profitable it has been to fade teams in this spot over the last 10 years.

St. Louis is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Rams are 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years. St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry. The Rams are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a double-digit loss. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 following a blowout win by 21 or more points against a division rival.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota State +13.5

I am a huge backer of the Northern Iowa Panthers this season.  I have backed them with a ton of success up to this point, winning with them three times in their wins over Iowa (56-44) as 3.5-point dogs, Denver (65-55) as 3-point favorites, and their loss to VCU (87-93) as 7.5-point dogs.

So, I have backed them in three straight games coming in, winning all three times.  However, I now believe they are overvalued as 13.5-point favorites against a very good South Dakota State team, and it's time to fade them. 

I also believe this is a huge letdown spot for the Panthers as they are coming off a massive win over in-state rival Iowa last time out.  It's also a lookahead spot for UNI because their conference season starts on January 1st, and they will not show up for this final non-conference game.  They won't be motivated enough to win by 14-plus points.

Even if Northern Iowa does show up, I have no doubt that South Dakota State is good enough to give them a run for their money in this one.  The Jack Rabbits are 9-4 this season after going 19-13 last year.  They brought back two of their best players from that team in Cody Larson (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg last year) and Jake Bittle (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Larson (13.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg this year) and Bittle (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) have picked up right where they left off last year.  Deondre Parks (14.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been their best player, and George Marshall (12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has also been a key contributor to the starting lineup.

I've been impressed with South Dakota State even in their losses.  They only lost 67-69 at Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs.  They also played a very good Utah team tough on the road as 17.5-point dogs, getting the cover in a 66-80 loss.  Also, their road wins over both Saint Louis (62-55) as 3.5-point dogs and Utah State (68-65) as 5-point dogs were very impressive to me.  Those four performances show me that the Jack Rabbits are capable of hanging with the Panthers, especially in this tough spot for UNI.

South Dakota State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game.  UNI doesn't play a style that lends to blowouts because they eat up shot clocks and play in the half court.  The Jack Rabbits are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  SDSU is 7-0 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last three years.  Bet South Dakota State Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Eagles. They just had their playoff hopes crushed with a 24-27 upset loss at Washington last week as 7-point favorites. I don’t expect them to show up at all this week after coming to the realization that they won’t be playing in the postseason. However, the Eagles’ poor play extends back over the past three weeks as well, so it wasn’t just that loss to the Redskins that did them in.

Indeed, the Eagles have now lost three straight games coming in. They lost 14-24 at home to Seattle on December 7th in a game what was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. They were outgained by 301 total yards in that loss to the Seahawks. They also lost 27-38 at home to the Cowboys on December 14th and were outgained by 70 yards in that contest as well. Last week’s loss to the Redskins was just the icing on the cake for them.

New York, on the other hand, comes in playing its best football of the season. This is the second straight year that the Giants have finished strong following a slow start. Last year, they opened 0-6 and wound up finishing 7-9. They are doing the same this year as they have won three straight following a seven-game losing streak.

The Giants have outgained four of their last five opponents, and their solid play extends back six weeks. It started with back to back close losses to the 49ers (10-16) and Cowboys (28-31). They also lost to the Jaguars 24-25 on the road after blowing a 21-point lead in that game. They have turned those close losses into blowout victories each of the last three weeks.

The Giants won 36-7 at Tennessee on December 7th while outgaining the Titans by 195 total yards in the win. They topped Washington 24-13 at home on December 14th in another dominant defensive effort. The Giants then went into St. Louis as 6.5-point underdogs last week and came away with a 37-27 victory, outgaining the Rams by 127 total yards.

This New York offense has really hits its stride in the last five games and is hitting on all cylinders now in this new West Coast system. It has scored at least 24 points in five straight, averaging 29.8 points and 389.0 yards per game during this span. It culminated in the 37-point, 514-yard output against the Rams last week. Coming in, the Rams had not allowed a touchdown in three of their four previous games, so that was no small feat.

Odell Beckham Jr. is setting all kind of records for the numbers he has put up in just 11 games. He now has 79 receptions for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns. This guy just cannot be stopped as he has at least six receptions and at least 90 receiving yards in each of his last eight games, including 130-plus yards and a combined six touchdowns over the last three weeks. As a result, Eli Manning has now put up impressive numbers on the season. He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,981 yards and 29 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Philadelphia backers will point to the Eagles’ 27-0 shutout win over the Giants back on October 12th as a reason to back them again in the rematch. Well, not only do the Giants want some serious revenge from that loss, they certainly were not at full strength in that game. Victor Cruz got hurt in the early stages and the offense just couldn’t get going without him. The offense has found a way without Cruz now due to the emergence of Beckham and is hitting on all cylinders.

The Giants should have plenty of success offensively against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 24.9 points and 366.9 yards per game this season. The Eagles hare just 3-4 on the road this year, where they are giving up 36.9 points per game. The Giants are playing really well defensively right now, giving up just 15.7 points per game in their last three, and 306.0 yards per game in their last four.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) – revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (PHILADELPHIA) – off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1983.

New York is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Week 17 games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games. The wheels have fallen off of the Philadelphia bus, and they won’t be coming back on this week.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +6

I was on the Redskins last week in their 27-24 upset win over the Eagles. I’ll be on them again this week as they continue to show tremendous value as 6-point home underdogs to the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys are being overvalued here for a number of reasons, but mainly because they still could earn a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the playoffs if everything breaks their way.

I also look for the Cowboys to have a letdown this week even with a first-round bye at stake. That’s because they are simply happy to be in the postseason after going 8-8 each of the last three seasons and missing the playoffs. They had a chance in Week 17 to get in each of the last three years, but lost in the finale in all three. They obviously would rather have a first-round bye, but the Redskins aren’t just going to lay down for them.

Also, the Cowboys know deep down inside that their chances of getting a first-round bye are slim to none.  They either need both Seattle and Arizona to lose this week to get one.  Or, they need the Packers/Lions game to end in a tie.  Well, the Seahawks are 13-point favorites over the Rams and likely aren't going to lose.  Obviously, the chances of the Packers/Lions game ending in a tie are slim to none.  So, Dallas is essentially locked into the No. 3 seed, and would be wise to rest its starters given the chance knowing it will have to play next week.

Washington has been an excellent team to back against division opponents despite its struggles as a team in recent years. It always shows up to play the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants, and this year has been no exception. In fact, the Redskins are 2-1 against the Eagles and Cowboys this year, with their only loss coming by a final of 34-37 as 4-point road underdogs at Philadelphia back in Week 3.

The Redskins beat the Cowboys 20-17 (OT) on the road back on October 27th. They racked up 409 total yards on the Cowboys even with Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback in the win. They were 9-point underdogs in that game. Well, if you adjust for home-field advantage, they should only be 3-point underdogs in the rematch. Instead, they are 6-point dogs, which is giving up three full points of value while crossing the key numbers of 3, 4 and 6 along the way.

Another reason the Cowboys are overvalued in this game is because they are coming off a blowout win over the Colts last week by a final of 42-7. Well, while that 35-point win looks good, it really wasn’t that impressive when you consider the state of mind the Colts were in. The Colts had just clinched their division the previous week, and they had no shot of earning a first-round bye even if they won out. So, they didn’t show up, and they rested T.Y. Hilton in the loss. I knew they weren’t going to show up, which is why I was on the Cowboys last week.

If you simply looked at the numbers alone and not the records, you’ll find that the Redskins aren’t really that much worse of a team than the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas ranks 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 26.5 yards per game. Washington ranks 16th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 5.7 yards per game. The Redskins have the worst record of all the top 18 teams in yardage differential, and it’s not even close. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are aided in this category by outgaining the lifeless Colts by 148 total yards last week.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough in recent years. Indeed, the Redskins are 3-2 straight up in their last five meetings with the Cowboys, and a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dallas has only beaten Washington by more than 3 points once in the last nine meetings. The underdog has brought home the bacon at an alarming rate in this matchup throughout the years. The dog is 25-8 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

"In order to come out here our last game of the year and compete with Dallas and beat Dallas would mean a lot just to see where we are ending the season on two huge victories against two quality opponents and two archrivals," head coach Jay Gruden said.

Robert Griffin III is also out to prove that he is the future of the franchise at quarterback.  He did a fine job last week in completing 16 of 23 passes for 220 yards with one interception in the win over the Eagles.  Griffin III is still probably the best quarterback for this team, and I like the fact that he'll continue playing motivated football this week.  As will the rest of the Redskins, who simply do not like the Cowboys and will be trying to steal this win from them Sunday.

Plays against road favorites (DALLAS) – an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 9 points or less last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1993. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after covering the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Cowboys are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout win by 28 or more points. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +5

The Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for, which is why this line is so small. In my opinion, they shouldn’t even be favored over the Bills given the situation. The Patriots have already clinched home-field advantage in the AFC after their win over the Jets last week. They also needed the Broncos to lose to the Bengals, which happened for them. Now, it would be foolish for Bill Belichick to risk the health of his starters as they look ahead toward the postseason.

With nothing on the line in terms of postseason positioning this week, Belichick said he'll "do whatever is best for the team" when it comes to resting some of his regulars. Reports have surfaced that tight end Rob Gronkowski could rest, and it's unclear if receiver Julian Edelman, offensive lineman Dan Connolly or running back LeGarrette Blount will play after each sat out last week with injuries.

"With the (first-round bye), you realize we're going to have a little time to rest up," quarterback Tom Brady said. "We just want to go out and play well and see if we can string together as many good plays as possible."  That sounds like a guy who knows he's only going to be in there for a series or two.

Even if Belichick plays his starters more than I’m expecting, I have no doubt that those players out there on the field could care less about winning this football game. These players are already looking ahead to who they are going to play in the postseason. Belichick will do his preaching about how it will be important to stay sharp, and he’s right, but it’s just so easy to not be sharp knowing that there’s no consequence if you aren’t.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has every reason to be motivated for a win Sunday despite the fact that it was eliminated from the playoffs last week. The Bills can do something that no other Buffalo team has done since 2004, which is finish a season with a winning record. They will also be out for revenge on the Patriots to try and end this six-game losing streak in the series, and a 13-game losing streak in Foxborough. There are so many positives this team could take away from a win Sunday as they look ahead to next season.

"The game means a lot to me. We're going to play the players that we feel give us the best chance to win," Head coach Doug Marrone said. "That's just the way that I'm wired and that's my responsibility to the team. We all have a responsibility to each other and I have to make those decisions each week."

This Buffalo defense is a big reason why I’ll recommend backing them Sunday. They rank 4th in the league in total defense at 315.7 yards per game, and 4th in scoring defense at 18.7 points per game. This stop unit has played at an elite level for most of the season. In two of their last three games, the Bills held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 0-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s no small feat, and it’s a sign that they can slow down this New England offense, too.

Kyle Orton continues to play well for this Buffalo offense. He has gone 6-5 as a starter this season and has been a huge reason for this team’s turnaround. Orton is completing 63.9% of his passes for 2,842 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. He has managed to get Sammy Watkins involved more than the quarterbacks before him. Watkins has 62 receptions for 925 yards and six scores this year, needing 75 more in this game to reach 1,000 as a rookie, which is mighty impressive.

Plays on any team (BUFFALO) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 64-32 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1983. Buffalo is 13-1 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 26.1 to 17.5 in this spot, or by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Bulls UNDER 202

This is my favorite total in an East vs. West battle in the NBA over the past seven days.  I look for a very low-scoring game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Chicago Bulls tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this one as it's likely that neither team reaches 100 points.

Both of these teams play at pretty slow paces this season.  The Pelicans rank 21st in the league in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.8 possessions per contest.  Chicago remains a solid defensive team, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency at 101.9 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What really stood out to me about this game was how these teams have fared head-to-head in recent years.  The Bulls and Pelicans have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings. 

They have combined for 167, 206, 183, 171, 194, 157, 162 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 202.

Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 10 seasons.  We're seeing an average combined score of 180.3 points per game in this spot.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets UNDER 190.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets.  I look for both teams to struggle offensively in this one, which has been the case for both of these teams all year.

Orlando is putting up just 93.7 points per game this season while ranking 26th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.9 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte is scoring 95.8 points per game while ranking 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

What I really like about this play is that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Indeed, the Hornets rank 24th in pace at 94.5 possessions per game.  The Magic rank 23rd in pace at 94.7 possessions per contest. 

This game will be played in the half court with few fast break opportunities as both teams like to slow it down and feed their big men in Al Jefferson for the Hornets and Nikola Vucevic for the Magic.  They each try to get their big men a touch every possession down the floor, which eats up shot clocks and is very beneficial for under backers.

Orlando is 37-14 to the UNDER in its last 51 road games.  The Magic are 14-2 to the UNDER in their last 16 road games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  Charlotte is 18-8 to the UNDER as a home favorites of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Magic last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Hornets last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Louisville Battle of Unbeatens on Louisville +6

No. 1 Kentucky (12-0) travels to face No. 4 Louisville (11-0) in a battle of unbeatens Saturday.  This is the most anticipated game of the 2014-15 college basketball season up to this point, and I believe it's going to live up to expectations as it goes right down to the wire.  I look for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

This line has gotten out of control.  It opened as a pick 'em and has been bet up to Kentucky -6 now, a full six-point move.  The value is clearly with the home underdog Cardinals in this one now as the betting public continues to pound the Wildcats.

Kentucky is the single-most overvalued team in the country right now because they continue to blow teams out, but they have been feasting on an easy schedule.  Indeed, 10 of Kentucky's 12 games have been at home this year, while the other two were on a neutral court.  This will be Kentucky's first true road game of the season, and I look for it to struggle.

Louisville is the real deal this year.  It has gone 11-0 up to this point with all 11 of its victories coming by 9 points or more.  That includes impressive wins over Minnesota (81-68), Ohio State (64-55) and Indiana (94-74).  Terry Rozier (16.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Montrezl Harrel (16.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Wayne Blackshear (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Chris Jones (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are four key returning players from last year's team.

These four will be out for revenge from Louisville's 69-74 loss to Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tournament.  That game was played on a neutral court obviously, but home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  Indeed, the home team has won five of the last six meetings between Louisville and Kentucky.

Kentucky is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Kentucky is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Wildcats are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Portland Trail Blazers are in the ultimate letdown spot here tonight.  I look for them to fail to bring the kind of effort to the court it's going to take to put away the pesky Philadelphia 76ers by more than 14 points in this one as a result.

Portland is coming off a four-game road trip against New Orleans, San Antonio, Houston and Oklahoma City.  It went an impressive 3-1 on that trip that included a pair of overtime wins over both the Spurs and Thunder.  It's simply going to be hard for them to be motivated in their first game back home following that huge road trip against the West's elite.

The 76ers have won back-to-back road games coming in.  They went into Orlando and won 96-88 as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st, and then went into Miami and won 91-87 as 7.5-point dogs on December 23rd.  In fact, the 76ers have played their best basketball on the road this season as all four of their wins have come away from home.

The 76ers have played the Blazers very tough here in recent meetings.  Indeed, they have only lost by more than 10 points once in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers, making for an 11-1 system when factoring in this 14-point spread.  They lost 104-114 at home to the Blazers as 13-point dogs in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 101-99 in Portland as 12-point dogs in their final meeting of 2013-14.

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  It is only losing by 4.6 points per game against these teams.  The 76ers are 79-49 ATS in their last 128 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. 

Portland is 0-10 ATS in hits last 10 home games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog.  It is losing in these spots by an average of 10.6 points per game.  This trend just goes to show that the Blazers tend to let down at home following a tough stretch of games against really good teams.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 201.5

Greg Popovich was extremely frustrated with his team's performance on Christmas Day in a 106-114 loss to Oklahoma City.  He voiced his frustration in the media, and I look for his team to respond tonight.  Their effort will be at an all-time high, and that will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

That 220 combined point performance last night is a big reason for this inflated line, but it's also due to the fact that the Spurs have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, two of those were triple-overtime games against the Blazers and Grizzlies.  They were tied with the Grizzlies 92-92 at the end of regulation, and tied with the Blazers 97-97 at the end of regulation.  If not for overtime, they'd be 3-3 to the under in their last six.

The Spurs are still one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, and that will really show tonight.  They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.7 points per 100 possessions.  Both the Spurs and Pelicans prefer to play at slower paces than league average.  In fact, they are both tied for 19th in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.

What really stood out to me about this under was how low-scoring these games have been between the Spurs and Pelicans.  Indeed, they have combined for 199 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 199, 176, 197 and 196 points in those four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 192.0 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons.  San Antonio is 91-61 to the UNDER in its last 152 when revenging a loss to an opponent as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Lakers/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls tonight.  I look for points for the Lakers to be hard to come by against one of the league's top defenses, and I expect this to be a very low-scoring game in the end as a result.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the head-to-head history of the Lakers and Bulls.  These teams always seem to bring their best efforts defensively when they face one another, and that will be the case against on Christmas Day.

Indeed, the Lakers and Bulls have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings with the UNDER going 7-2 in those contests.  Even that 202-point effort was an overtime game that was tied at 93-93 at the end of regulation last year.  Only 3 out of a possible 18 times in their last nine meetings has one of these teams scored at least 100 points.

The Lakers and Bulls have combined for 178, 202, 171, 178, 175, 172, 189, 183 and 201 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  As you can see, there's a ton of value in backing the UNDER as a result.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, which has them way undervalued as the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  They should be laying more than two points to the Boston Celtics here.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Magic just lost to the Celtics on the road on December 17th less than a week ago.  So, they are going to be out for revenge in this rematch, and I look for them to get it now that they are finally healthy and at full strength.

After all, home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings between the Magic and Celtics, and I look for that trend to continue here tonight.

I also question the motivation and mental state of the Celtics right now.  They just traded away their best player in Rajon Rondo, and these players cannot feel comfortable about it knowing that Danny Ainge is still in full-blown rebuilding mode.

In their first game without Rondo, the Celtics were rolled at Miami 84-100 on Sunday.  They clearly were out of sync in that game without Rondo, and that 16-point loss is really bad when you consider that Miami was playing without Chris Bosh.

Boston is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 3-7 on the road this season.  Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +1.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

While the Buffaloes do have three losses already, all three have come against quality competition in Wyoming, Georgia and Colorado State, and two of the three came in true road games.  I like what I've seen from this team in their last two contests. 

They beat Northern Colorado 93-68 as a 12-point home favorite and DePaul 82-68 as a 9-point favorite in the first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii.  I look for them to take down George Washington today as they should not be underdogs for this contest.

To no surprise, the four returning starters for the Buffaloes are their four leading scorers.  Asia Booker (15.3 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.5 rpg) and Josh Scott (14.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg) lead the way, while Xavier Johnson (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (7.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) have had big seasons up to this point as well.

George Washington owns an identical 7-3 record to Colorado.  This is a team that returned three starters from last year, but lost its top two scorers in Maurice Creek (14.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Isaiah Armwood (12.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg).  The Colonials came into the season overvalued due to advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

The Colonials have gone just 3-4 ATS in all games this season, and they've lost to the best competition they have faced.  Their three losses came to Virginia, Seton Hall and Penn State, while their seven wins came against Grambling, Rutgers, Longwood, MD-Balt County, Charlotte, DePaul and Ohio.  They lost by 17 points to Virginia and by 13 to Penn State.

The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  George Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Colonials are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for an 18-2 system backing the Buffaloes.  Take Colorado Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the best teams in the West at 20-8 this season.  They just got even stronger with the addition of Rajon Rondo a few days ago, who helped lead them to a 99-93 home win over San Antonio in his Dallas debut on Saturday. 

The Mavericks are showing excellent value here as only 4-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks Monday.  The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their second game in five days, which has given Rondo extra time to get used to playing on his new team.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to having won 12 of its last 13 games overall while going 10-3 ATS in the process.  The betting public is obviously all over them right now, especially after their back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Houston.  It's going to be very tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers going forward, especially tonight.

Dallas has won five of its last eight meetings with Atlanta with all five of those victories coming by at least 5 points, and four by 8 points or more.  Two of Atlanta's last three wins against Dallas have come by a combined 5 points.  As a result, the Mavs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Hawks as well.

Atlanta has been dominating the Eastern Conference, but it has been a completely different story against the West.  The Hawks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. Western Conference foes.  Dallas is 54-25 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS loss.  The Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Broncos/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

Both the Broncos and Bengals have a ton to play for right now, so I don’t think motivation will be an issue at all in this game. Denver wants to get at least a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the AFC, while Cincinnati is trying to fend off both Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North Title. So, with motivation being a non-issue, this one will come down to which team is better on the field. There’s no question in my mind that team is the Broncos, and the numbers show it's not even close.

Denver ranks 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 91.3 yards per game. Its offense has remained explosive this season in averaging 29.1 points and 400.7 yards per game. But, the biggest different for this team compared to last year is the defense. The Broncos are only allowing 21.6 points and 309.4 yards per game to rank 4th in the entire NFL in total defense.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. There’s no way they should be in first place in the division right now with the numbers they have put up. They rank 19th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 10.0 yards per game on the season despite their 9-4-1 record. They are one of only two teams in the NFL that ranks 19th or worse in yardage differential that currently has a winning record on the season. The Cardinals are the other, and they are also among the league’s most overrated.

Amazingly, Cincinnati has played just five teams with winning records this season. It is 2-3 in those five games with a couple wins over Baltimore by a combined 10 points. Its the losses that are troubling. The Bengals lost 27-0 to the Colts, 43-17 to the Patriots, and 42-21 to the Steelers. They are getting outscored by an average of 12.8 points per game in their five contests against teams with winning records this year. I believe the Broncos are the best team that they have faced yet.

This is a great matchup for the Broncos’ defense as well. The Bengals are a run-heavy team that averages 130 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Only one team in the league has been better at stopping the run than the Broncos. They rank 2nd in the league against the run in allowing just 71.6 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to less than 100 rushing yards, and nine of their last 11 to 74 or fewer on the ground.

Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 2-9 in prime-time games since 2011, the year Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback. That includes an 0-3 record in nationally televised postseason games, and a 2-6 mark in games played unopposed on Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights.  Dalton has just crumbled on the big stage, and he will again Monday night as he feels the pressure mounting.

Peyton Manning is 8-0 all-time against Cincinnati, including a 3-0 December record that’s highlighted by 10 touchdowns passes and no interceptions. The Broncos are 4-0 in night games this season, most recently winning in Kansas City 29-16.  Manning has proven he can handle the big stage and will put on another show Monday night.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last three seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Bengals have lost their last two home games each by 21 points in a 3-24 loss to the Browns and that 21-42 loss to the Steelers.  Bet the Broncos Monday.