15* AL Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers -128

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 41-33 in their last 74 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 10-6 in their last 16 games overall while outscoring the opposition 96-68 in the process.

After dropping two straight to the lowly Orioles the last two days, the Tigers will come back highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid losing this series to them. Tyler Alexander has been at his best at home with a 3.72 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in three home starts this season. The Tigers are 3-0 in his three home starts.

The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 home games.  The Orioles are 22-50 in their last 72 games overall. Baltimore is 7-21 in its last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Tigers Sunday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox +101

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a win Saturday after dropping two straight coming in, including Game 1 of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays.  They should not be underdogs here with the big advantage they have on the mound.

Nathan Eovaldi is Boston's ace at 9-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Eovaldi has allowed just 2 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Rays.  He beat them 9-2 while allowing just one earned run in 7 innings in his lone start against them in 2021.

Ryan Yarbrough is one of the weak links in Tampa Bay's staff.  He is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.31 ERA in seven home starts.  Yarbrough is 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six career starts against Boston as well.  He allowed 9 runs, 6 earned, in 5 innings of a 2-9 loss opposite Eovaldi in his lone start against Boston in 2021.

Boston is 29-13 in its last 42 vs. AL East opponents.  The Red Sox are 44-22 in night games this season.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers -101

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 41-32 in their last 73 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 10-5 in their last 15 games overall while outscoring the opposition 94-63 in the process.

The Tigers should stay hot at the plate tonight against John Means, who is 0-2 with an 8.02 ERA in his last three starts overall while allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 1/3 innings.

Matt Manning has been at his best at home this season for the Tigers. He is 2-0 with a 3.14 ERA in his three home starts this season. Means is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. The Orioles are 21-50 in their last 71 games overall. Baltimore is 8-23 in its last 31 games as a road favorite. Wrong team favored here. Roll with the Tigers Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)

The Toronto Blue Jays have just the type of offense that I'm willing to back them on the Run Line.  They rank 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 2nd in average and 1st in OPS in all of baseball this season.

The Blue Jays should feast on Kansas City's Mike Minor tonight.  Minor is 8-8 with a 5.32 ERA in 21 starts this season.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-1 loss to Toronto in his lone start against them in 2021.

Alek Manoah makes his return from injury here and looks to pick up right where he left off.  Manoah has gone 2-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in eight starts this season with 52 K's in 40 1/3 innings.  He has been at his best at home, going 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in three home starts.

Kansas City is 22-55 in its last 77 games with a total of 10 or higher.  The Royals are 20-47 in their last 67 games as road underdogs.  Kansas City is 18-38 in its last 56 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Toronto is 36-16 in its last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are 42-17 in their last 59 home meetings with the Royals.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +116

The Houston Astros are 5-1 in their last six games overall and hitting the cover off the ball right now. They have scored 8 runs or more in three straight games. They rank 1st in runs per 9 innings, average and 2nd in OPS this season.

There is clearly value on the Astros as underdogs today with Framber Valdez on the mound. He is 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA in five road starts.

Kevin Gausman is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to his season-long numbers. But he has come back down to reality of late, going 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Giants are in a letdown spot here after taking two out of three from the Dodgers last series. They have played seven of their last 10 games against the Dodgers as well. In between, they lost two out of three to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates as -190 and -270 favorites. Houston is 47-18 in its last 65 games following an off day. Take the Astros Friday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-108)

The Chicago White Sox are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall and will be highly motivated to get back on track here against the Cleveland Indians. I like their chances of winning this game by two runs or more due to their big advantage on the mound.

Lance Lynn is a Cy Young contender this season for the White Sox alongside Carlos Rodon. Lynn is 10-3 with a 1.91 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 18 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Lynn is 4-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in six career starts against the Indians as well. He'll be opposed by Jean Carlos Mejia, who is still in search of his first win this season. Mejia is 0-6 with an 8.58 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in nine starts while allowing 34 earned runs and 9 homers in 35 2/3 innings.

The White Sox are 16-2 in home games following a loss this season, outscoring opponents by 3.5 runs per game in this spot. Roll with the White Sox on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -142

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 41-31 in their last 72 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 10-4 in their last 14 games overall while outscoring the opposition 91-59 in the process.

Now they have a series with the worst team in the American League in the Baltimore Orioles, who are 35-66 this season. And I'll gladly fade one of the worst starters in baseball in Matt Harvey, who is 5-10 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in 20 starts this season.

Tarik Skubal is one of the many underrated starters in Detroit's rotation. He is 6-8 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.287 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Skubal has been at his best at home, going 3-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 10 home starts.

The Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 home games, including 10-1 at home in the month of July. Detroit is 6-0 in its last six games as a home favorite. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 home meetings with Baltimore. The Orioles are 20-50 in their last 70 games overall. Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-115)

The Chicago White Sox feast on left-handed pitching.  They have gone 34-10 against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  They blew a lead in the 9th last night and will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win in Kansas City Thursday.

Now they should feast on left-hander Carlos Hernandez, who has had a rough go of it in the big leagues.  He is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in 43 innings in the majors.  That includes 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in two starts in 2021.

Carlos Rodon is a Cy Young contender this season.  He has gone 8-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 17 starts with a whopping 145 K's in 100 2/3 innings.  He has been at his best on the road, going 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA in nine starts away from home.

Chicago is 24-8 in its last 32 games as a road favorite of -125 or more.  The White Sox are 47-17 in their last 64 games as favorites overall.  Chicago is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings, including 11-2 in the last 12 meetings in Kansas City.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-115)

The Chicago White Sox feast on left-handed pitching.  They have gone 34-9 against left-handed starters over the last two seasons, scoring 6.2 runs per game and winning by 2.8 runs per game on average.

Now they should feast on Kansas City lefty Kris Bubic, who is 2-3 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.624 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He has been roughed up of late in going 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  The Royals are 0-3 in Bubic's three career starts against the White Sox.

Lucas Giolito has been dominant for a couple months now.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts, including exactly one run in five of those.  Giolito is 8-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in 15 career starts against Kansas City.

Chicago is 24-7 in its last 31 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Giolito is 12-2 in road starts off a win over the last three years.  Giolito is 16-3 in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in Kansas City.  take the White Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Blue Jays -130 (Game 1)

Robbie Ray is 8-5 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 19 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  He has been the model of consistency, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 19 starts.  And he allowed 4 earned runs exactly in the other three.

Ray is the better starter in this showdown with Boston's Garrett Richards, who is 6-5 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Richards has allowed 4 earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts.

The Blue Jays are 13-6 in their last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Toronto will be highly motivated for a victory today after losing four straight to the Red Sox in this season series.  Ray is just the guy to get the job done.  Bet the Blue Jays in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +125

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 39-31 in their last 70 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 8-4 in their last 12 games overall while outscoring the opposition 68-43 in the process.

The Minnesota Twins have been one of the biggest money burners in baseball at 43-59 (-28.5 units) this season.  They should not be favored over the Tigers with J.A. Happ on the mound.  Happ is 5-5 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He has posted a 5.35 ERA and 1.506 WHIP in 14 career starts against Detroit.  He just allowed 7 earned runs and 11 hits in 7 innings of a 7-0 loss to the Tigers on July 18th.

Wily Peralta has been dominant this season for the Tigers.  He is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in seven starts.  Two of those starts came against the Twins in July as he held them to one earned run in 12 innings for a 0.75 ERA.

Detroit is a perfect 5-0 (+7.4 units) in road games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.  The Tigers are 11-1 in their last 12 Wednesday games.  Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games following a win.  The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 games as favorites.  Roll with the Tigers Wednesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -117

We're getting the Chicago White Sox at a discount after losing three of their last four coming in.  You're paying a tax to back the Royals right now due to winning five straight coming in.  The White Sox have all the advantages in this game and should be bigger favorites.

That includes their advantage on the mound with Dallas Keuchel, who is 7-3 with a 4.16 ERA in 18 starts this season.  Keuchel owns the Royals, going 7-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.

Mike Minor is 7-8 with a 5.45 ERA in 20 starts this season for the Royals.  He is 3-5 with a 5.61 ERA in 10 home starts.  Minor is 1-3 with a 3.72 ERA in five career starts against Chicago as well.  The White Sox are 34-8 vs. left-handed starts over the last two seasons, winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  

Keuchel is 10-1 against the money line in night games this season.  Minor is 0-6 against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days' rest over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 51-19 in its last 70 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 15-4 in the last 19 meetings, including 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Kansas City.  Bet the White Sox Monday.

20* White Sox/Brewers ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +135

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three straight coming in and desperately want to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two of this series to the Milwaukee Brewers.  The White Sox have only lost more than three in a row once all season.

I like their chances of avoiding a 4th straight defeat with Cy Young contender Lance Lynn on the mound.  Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.034 WHP in 17 starts this season.  He simply owns the Brewers, going 9-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He should not be this big of an underdog to Brandon Woodruff tonight.  Bet the White Sox Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -101

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 38-29 in their last 67 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 7-2 in their last nine games overall while outscoring the opposition 56-26 in the process.

The Tigers should not be underdogs to the Royals, who are just 12-29 in their last 41 games overall.  Detroit will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first two games of this series and now trying to avoid the sweep.  That includes a blown 6-0 lead yesterday which was a painful loss for me and my clients to swallow.

The Tigers bounce back today behind Takik Skubal, who has been solid at 6-7 with a 4.25 ERA in 17 starts this season.  Skubal is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City.

He'll be opposed by Daniel Lynch, who is 0-2 with a 15.73 ERA and 2.871 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 14 earned runs in 8 innings.  One of those starts came against Detroit on May 13th when he allowed 4 runs, 3 earned in 2 2/3 innings.  Take the Tigers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +108

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after losing three straight overall, including the first two games of this series to the lowly Baltimore Orioles.  I fully expect them to avoid the sweep and take Game 3 this afternoon.

Paolo Espino has been an underrated starter for the Nationals this season.  He has gone 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in six starts.  He'll be opposed by John Means, who comes in struggling at 0-3 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in his last three starts.

Baltimore is 1-8 (-8.8 units) as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 5-20 (-14.3 units) in home games against right-handed starters this season.  Baltimore is 2-15 (-12.4 units) vs. a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start this season.  Roll with the Nationals Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +114

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday after losing two straight, including Game 1 of this series to the Brewers.  But now we are getting a Cy Young contender as an underdog here in a bounce back spot and we'll take advantage.

Carlos Rodon has been dominant all season, going 8-3 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 16 starts with a whopping 140 K's in 96 2/3 innings.  Rodon has been at his best on the road, going 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in eight starts away from home.

Rodon is 9-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less in his career.  Burnes is 2-9 (-10.7 Units) in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six home games.  Chicago is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers +123

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 38-28 in their last 66 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 7-1 in their last eight games overall while outscoring the opposition 48-17 in the process.

The Tigers should not be underdogs to the Royals, who are just 11-29 in their last 40 games overall.  They definitely shouldn't be dogs with ace Casey Mize on the mound.  Mize is 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 18 starts this season.

He is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals in 2021 while allowing only 6 earned runs and zero homers in 19 innings.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Hernandez, who is 0-1 with a 16.17 ERA and 4.790 WHIP in one career start against Detroit.  Hernandez will be making just his 2nd start of 2021.

Mize is 11-6 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -114

The Toronto Blue Jays are highly motivated for a victory Saturday after losing three straight coming in.  They had won four straight prior while outscoring the opposition 28-3 in the process.  Look for them to get back on track tonight.

Ace Hyun-Jin Ryu goes for the Blue Jays Saturday.  He is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Ryu owns the Mets, going 5-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

Taijuan Walker has good numbers overall this season for the Mets but has struggled of late.  He has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in his last three starts.  Walker has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Toronto is 14-3 in its last 17 vs. NL East opponents this season.  The Blue Jays are 14-3 in their last 17 interleague games.  The Mets are 5-11 in their last 16 games following a win.  Take the Blue Jays Saturday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago White Sox +116

The Chicago White Sox should not be underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this Interleague series tonight.  They are hitting the ball too well right now to be an underdog.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 17 of their last 20 games overall.

Lucas Giolito is pitching like the ace that he is.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts overall.  He just held the Astros to one earned run in a complete game 10-1 victory last time out.

Freddy Peralta is coming back down to reality after a great start to the season.   He has allowed at least one homer in each of last last three starts with 15 walks in 23 innings across his last four starts.  He is being overvalued here tonight.

The White Sox are 24-11 in their last 35 games following a loss.  Chicago is 5-0 in its last five road games.  Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last eight vs. AL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 0-5 in their last five games as home favorites.  Chicago is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the White Sox Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers +114

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 38-27 in their last 65 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season.  And they are now 7-0 in their last seven games overall while outscoring the opposition 45-12 in the process.

The Tigers should not be underdogs to the Royals, who are just 10-29 in their last 39 games.  They definitely shouldn't be dogs with the way Wily Peralta is pitching right now.  He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last four starts while allowing just one earned run in 24 innings.

Kris Bubic has struggled all season for the Royals, especially of late.  He is 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA in his last four starts while allowing 21 earned runs and 11 homers in 17 innings.  He has posted a 5.58 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in two career starts against Detroit.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

15* Yankees/Red Sox AL East ANNIHILATOR on New York -102

It's rare that you get the opportunity to back one of the best starters in baseball in Gerrit Cole at nearly even money.  That is the opportunity the books have given us Friday against the Boston Red Sox and we'll take advantage.

Cole has been arguably the best starter in baseball over the last five years.   He is 10-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA in his last two starts while holding two of the best lineups in baseball in the Red Sox and Astros to just one earned run in 15 innings with 23 K's.

The Yankees clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one as Eduardo Rodriquez is 7-5 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 18 starts this season for the Red Sox.  But he has pitched well of late, so he is getting respect from oddsmakers that he doesn't deserve when he's up against a guy the caliber of Cole.

New York is 55-26 in its last 81 during Game 2 of a series.  Look for the Yankees to bounce back tonight after blowing a 3-1 lead in the 9th yesterday and losing in extra innings to the Red Sox.  Roll with the Yankees Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Cardinals UNDER 8.5

This has the makings of a pitcher's duel tonight between Kwang-Hyun Kim and Adbert Alzolay of the Cardinals and Cubs, respectively.  I like what I've seen from both starters this season, especially Kim.  Chicago is scoring 3.6 runs per game on the road while St. Louis is scoring 3.9 runs per game at home in 2021.

Kim is 5-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in eight home starts.  He has been untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts while pitching 19 shutout innings.

Kim is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in two starts against the Cubs in 2021.  He'll be opposed by Alzolay, who has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis.  He has posted an impressive 1.105 WHIP in 16 starts overall this season.

St. Louis is 21-7 UNDER in its last 28 home games vs. an NL starting pitcher with a 1.150 WHIP or better.  The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Cubs last 12 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5.  The UNDER is 15-6-1 in Cubs last 22 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)

The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to gain some ground on the Boston Red Sox in the AL East.  After losing Game 1, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.  They have a big advantage on the mound that should lead to a win by two runs or more.

The Blue Jays are flexing their muscle in recent weeks with one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  They have scored 5 or more runs in 13 of their last 19 games overall.  They are 15-8 in their last 23 games with 14 of those 15 wins coming by two runs or more.

Now ace Robbie Ray gets the ball for the Blue Jays tonight.  Ray is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 18 starts with a whopping 138 K's in 107 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts, going 6-2 with a 2.11 ERA in those nine starts while allowing just 13 earned runs in 55 1/3 innings with 78 K's.

Garrett Richards is 5-5 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in 18 starts this season for the Red Sox.  Richards is 3-4 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in nine career starts against the Blue Jays as well.  He has faced Toronto three times already this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 34 base runners in 16 2/3 innings with only 10 K's.

Toronto is 8-0 in its last eight home games after allowing 12 runs or more.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 6.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Blue Jays are also 8-0 in their last eight home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 12 runs or more, winning by 6.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Detroit Tigers -118

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 35-27 in their last 62 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  They should be much bigger favorites against the struggling Texas Rangers tonight.

The Tigers are 4-0 in their last four games overall while outscoring their four opponents 27-4 in the process.  They take on a Rangers team that is 0-6 in their last six games overall and has scored at total of just 3 runs while getting outscored 33-3 in their last five games overall.

Detroit has the advantage on the mound tonight behind Tarik Skubal, who has posted a 3.78 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Dane Dunning, who is 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in eight road starts.  The Rangers have gone 1-7 in Dunning's eight road starts this season.

Texas is 0-10 in road games following five or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 1-18 in its last 19 road games after a game where the bullpen gave up 4 or more earned runs.  Texas is 16-53 in its last 69 road games.  Detroit is 6-0 in its last six home games.  Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Phoenix +5

The Milwaukee Bucks shot 57.5% from the floor and 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range to steal Game 5 in Phoenix.  I look for the Suns to return the favor here in Game 6 and take this series back to Phoenix for a Game 7.  It's clear the Bucks aren't going to shoot that well again.

Chris Paul has been off the last three games after a tremendous start to the series after a great close to the Clippers series.  I look for him to come up big here in Game 6 with the season on the line once again, and for Devin Booker to continue his great play.  The Suns should get more from their role players as well here tonight.

It's definitely a 'buy low' spot on the Suns off three consecutive losses after winning the first two games of this series.  The Bucks are 6-17 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Milwaukee wasn't this big of a favorite in either of its first two home meetings with the Suns in this series, so I believe there is value with the road team here.   Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago White Sox -136

The Minnesota Twins will be playing their 6th game in 4 days since returning from the All-Star Break.  They are just 1-4 coming out of the break and have scored a total of 10 runs in five games, an average of just 2.0 runs per game.  They should be much bigger underdogs to the White Sox tonight.

Chicago is 13-5 in its last 18 games overall and has scored 4 or more runs in 16 of those 18 games, including 5 or more in 14 or them.  They will get after Minnesota starter Bailey Ober, who is 1-1 with a 5.46 ERA in eight starts this season.  Ober is 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in three career starts against Chicago as well.

Dallas Keuchel is 6-2 with a 3.86 ERA in nine career starts against Minnesota.  Kuechel is also 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in eight home starts this season, and the White Sox have gone 7-1 in those eight starts.

Kuechel is 9-1 against the money line in night games this season with the White Sox winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 18-3 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The White Sox are 50-20 in their last 70 home games.  The Twins are 2-9 in their last 11 road games.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -127

The Toronto Blue Jays are flexing their muscle in recent weeks with one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  They have scored 5 or more runs in 13 of their last 18 games overall, including 10-2, 5-0 & 10-0 wins over the Rangers last series.  They improved to 15-7 in their last 22 games with 14 of those 15 wins coming by two runs or more.

Now they will take down the struggling Boston Red Sox who managed a total of just two runs total in back-to-back losses to the Yankees over the weekend.  They will get after Nick Pivetta, who is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in his last three starts.  Pivetta has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in two starts against Toronto in 2021.

Ross Stripling has really turned it around after a rough start for the Blue Jays.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 12 starts and 4 earned runs in two of the three that he didn't.  Stripling has been very consistent and I think he limits the Red Sox today enough to allow Toronto to win this game.

The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games as road underdogs.  The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games as favorites.  Toronto is 6-1 in its last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Blue Jays Monday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -110

After disaster struck prior to the All-Star Break, the Chicago Cubs got the rest they needed to regroup.  They have come out of the break with two straight wins over the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-68) and I expect them to get the sweep here against the worst team in baseball.

Zach Davies has been respectable this season with a 4.37 ERA in 19 starts.  He is 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in six career starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

He'll be opposed by Merrill Kelly, who is 5-7 with a 4.46 ERA in 19 starts this season.  Kelly is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 3.542 WHIP in his lone career start against the Cubs as well.

Arizona is 4-24 off four or more consecutive losses this season.  The Diamondbacks are 4-20 vs. a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start this season.  The Cubs are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The Diamondbacks are 8-46 in their last 54 games overall.  Roll with the Cubs Sunday.

15* Astros/White Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -124

The Chicago White Sox blasted the Houston Astros 10-1 yesterday to end a five-game losing streak in this head-to-head series this season.  They should pick up another win Sunday considering they have a big advantage on the mound.

Carlos Rodon is a Cy Young contender with what he has done this season.  Rodon is 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 15 starts with a whopping 130 K's in 89 2/3 innings.  He is also 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA in six career starts against Houston.

Framber Valdez has good numbers overall in limited action but has come back down to reality of late.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts for a 7.00 ERA.  The White Sox own left-handed starters, going 33-8 against them over the last two seasons winning by 2.8 runs per game and scoring 6.3 runs per game.

The White Sox are 48-19 in their last 67 home games.  Chicago is 15-3 at home with a money line of +100 to -150 this season.  The White Sox are 44-14 in their last 58 games as favorites.  Take the White Sox Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Mets -132

The New York Mets have now lost three straight games to the Pittsburgh Pirates dating back to before the All-Star Break.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a win Sunday to avoid the sweep in Pittsburgh today.

Taijuan Walker has been phenomenal this season.  He is 7-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 16 starts.  He'll be opposed by J.T. Brubaker, who is 4-9 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three.  

Brubaker allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-13 loss to the Mets on July 9th in his lone career start against them.  Walker was opposite Brubaker in that game and allowed just 2 earned runs in 5 innings.

Walker is 13-1 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 218

The longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  And this should be the lowest scoring game of the series to date between the Bucks and Suns in this pressure-packed Game 5 tonight with the series tied 2-2 apiece.

I cashed in the UNDER 222 in Game 3 in a game that saw 220 combined points.  It still stayed UNDER the total despite a 69-point 3rd quarter. I cashed in the UNDER 220.5 in Game 4 in a game that saw just 212 combined points despite a 61-point 2nd quarter. And I'm expecting 212 or fewer combined points in Game 5 tonight as well, so we have some room to work with in this 218-point total.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Phoenix) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-11 (76.6%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Astros/White Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -109

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night.  They are 0-5 against the Astros this season and desperately want to win a game against them.  They turn to ace Lucas Giolito to get the job done tonight.

Giolito has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, including two runs or fewer in six of those.  Giolito is 1-1 with a 1.10 ERA in his last two starts against the Astros, allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

Jake Odorizzi is 3-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 10 starts for the Astros this season.  The White Sox should get into their bullpen early in this one considering Odorizzi is only averaging 4.3 innings per start this season.

Chicago is 14-2 in home games following a loss this season.  The White Sox are 47-19 in their last 66 home games.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-129)

The Toronto Blue Jays sit at 45-42 on the season with a lot to play for coming out of the All-Star Break. They should handle the Texas Rangers (35-55) in Game 1 this series tonight due to their advantage on the mound.

Robbie Ray is an elite starter in the big leagues for the Blue Jays. He is 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 17 starts this season with 130 K's in 100 2/3 innings. Ray has now allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts.

Jordan Lyles is one of the worst starters in baseball for the Rangers. He is 5-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season.

Texas is 2-14 in road games after two or more consecutive losses this season. The Rangers are 19-54 in their last 73 road games overall. Toronto is a perfect 8-0 after scoring 3 runs or less in two straight games this season. Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 220.5

The longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. And this should be the lowest scoring game of the series to date between the Bucks and Suns tonight.

I cashed in the UNDER 222 in Game 3 in a game that saw 220 combined points. It still stayed UNDER the total despite a 69-point 3rd quarter. I don't see another quarter being that high scoring again, but I do see one or two quarters with 50 points or fewer.

Phoenix has shot well in every game thus far and shot 48.2% again in Game 3. They are probably due for an off night from the field. And I don't see the Bucks scoring 120 again and shooting as well as they did in Game 3 either.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-14 (75.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Wednesday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 222

The Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks went OVER the total in each of their first two games in this series.  Now I believe there is value in the UNDER in Game 3 tonight between the Bucks and Suns in this pivotal game for Milwaukee.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another.  And familiarity always favors defense and low scoring games.  That should prove to be the case in this series, starting with Game 3 tonight.

The Suns made 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and that game still saw just 226 combined points after a bunch of fouls at the end.  This game should stay well UNDER 222 combined points with the Suns not shooting nearly as well as they did last game.  And the Bucks have shot poorly for most of these playoffs and that should continue against an elite defensive team like Phoenix.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-14 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Milwaukee) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-10 (78.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +109

The Atlanta Braves sit at 44-44 this season and have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.  They have been motivated to try to get back above .500 prior to the All-Star Break with a sweep of the Marlins in this series, and so far so good with a 5-0 win in Game 1 and a 5-4 win in Game 2.

The Braves should not be underdogs to the Marlins again today.  Ian Anderson is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Braves, including 3-3 with a 2.57 ERA in nine road starts.

Anderson owns the Marlins with a 1.86 ERA in four career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Pablo Lopez, who is 2-7 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Braves.

Atlanta is 41-17 in the last 58 meetings.  The Marlins are 1-12 after playing five or more consecutive home games this season.  The Braves are 62-30 in their last 92 meetings in Miami.  Roll with the Braves Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-120)

The Chicago White Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and have scored 4 or more runs in all 12 games and 5 or more runs in 11 of them.  They are hitting as well as anyone in baseball right now and should put another beat down on the Orioles after winning 12-1 Friday and 8-3 Saturday.

Dylan Cease is 7-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the White Sox.  He faced Baltimore on May 27th in his lone career start against them and held them to one earned run in 6 innings with 10 K's in a 5-1 victory for Chicago.  He'll be opposed by Spenser Watkins, who will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Orioles.

Chicago is 42-14 in its last 56 games as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-41 in their last 52 games overall.  The White Sox are 7-0 in the last six meetings.  Baltimore is 0-15 in its last 15 games after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse.   Take the White Sox on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado Rockies +166

German Marquez has been too good of late to be this big of an underdog to the San Diego Padres.  Marquez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, including one earned run or fewer in seven of those nine.

Joe Musgrove has come back down to reality of late for the Padres.  He is 1-0 with a 10.00 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings to the Reds and Nationals.

The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and playing well here entering the All-Star Break.  The value on Marquez is too good to pass up tonight.  Roll with the Rockies Saturday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves +102

The Atlanta Braves sit at 43-44 this season and have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.  They will be motivated to try to get back to .500 prior to the All-Star Break with a sweep of the Marlins in this series, and it started with a 5-0 win in Game 1 last night.

I'm back on the Braves today with Max Fried on the mound.  Fried has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, including exactly one earned run in six of those 10.  He'll be opposed by Trevor Rogers, who is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against the Braves.

Miami is 7-23 after scoring two runs or less this season.  Atlanta is 40-17 in the last 57 meetings.  The Marlins are 1-11 after playing five or more consecutive home games this season.  Fried is 27-8 following a team win over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 41-17 in Fried's last 58 starts.  Take the Braves Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-130)

The Chicago White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and have scored 4 or more runs in all 11 games and 5 or more runs in 10 of them.  They are hitting as well as anyone in baseball right now and should put another beat down on the Orioles similar to the 12-1 win yesterday.

Lucas Giolito is back to being his same dominant self by allowing 3 earned runs or less in nine of his last 12 starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of those.  He held the Orioles to one run in 7 innings with 12 K's on May 30th in his last start against them.

He'll be opposed by Tom Eshelman, who is 0-1 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four starts this season.  That includes 0-1 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.057 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.  It's safe to say the White Sox have a huge advantage on the mound tonight.

Chicago is 41-14 in its last 55 games as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-40 in their last 52 games overall.  The White Sox are 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Baltimore is 0-14 in its last 14 games after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse.  Giolito is 15-3 against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a .260 average or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -115

The Atlanta Braves sit at 42-44 this season and have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.  They will be motivated to try to get back to .500 prior to the All-Star Break with a sweep of the Marlins in this series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight.

I like the fact that the Braves had yesterday off and are rested while the Marlins are coming off a huge 3-1 series win over the Dodgers yesterday and are in a letdown spot.  And I think Zach Thompson of the Marlins is getting too much respect for what he has done in only five starts this season.

I'll gladly back Charlie Morton over Thompson here tonight.  Morton is 7-3 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in six road starts.

Miami is 7-22 after scoring two runs or less this season.  The Marlins are 12-30 vs. a starting pitcher that allows 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season.  Miami is 2-9 in its last 11 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  Atlanta is 39-17 in the last 56 meetings.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +118

The Toronto Blue Jays are 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They have won 10 of those 11 games by two runs or more.  And they should not be underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.

The Blue Jays have the advantage on the mound again tonight.  Alek Manoah has yet to lose this season, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in seven starts.  He has pitched 13 innings in his last two starts without allowing a single earned run against the Orioles and Rays.

Manoah pitched 7 shutout innings with 10 K's in an 11-1 win over the Rays in his last start on July 2nd.  He'll be opposed by Shane McClanahan, who has posted a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts this season, including a 4.63 ERA in five home starts.  The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six road games.  Roll with the Blue Jays Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox -132

The Chicago White Sox (51-35) should be much bigger favorites over the Baltimore Orioles (28-58) tonight.  They have the advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight and should win going away.

Dallas Keuchel is 6-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 16 starts this season for the White Sox.  Keuchel is 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts against the Orioles as well.

He'll be opposed by Jorge Lopez, who is 2-11 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Orioles.  Lopez is 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox.

Baltimore is 3-17 in its last 20 home games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  Chicago is 40-14 in its last 54 games as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games overall.  The White Sox are 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the White Sox Friday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

I lost on the Bucks +6 in Game 1 for a rare loss recently in these playoffs as I have been pretty spot on.  I like the value I got as the Bucks closed as 5-point dogs after it was announced that Giannis would play, but there were still questions about how effective he would be.

I think Giannis answered those questions in Game 1 with 20 points and 17 rebounds on 6-of-11 shooting in over 35 minutes of action.  And with a healthy Giannis in Game 2, the Bucks should not be even bigger 5.5-point underdogs to the Phoenix Suns Thursday night.

We've seen the Suns win and cover in all three Game 1's in these playoffs, but they've gone 1-2 ATS in their three Game 2's.  I think they will relax a little here and the Bucks will be playing with more of a sense of urgency in Game 2 to try and even this series heading back to Milwaukee.

The Suns had a huge advantage at the free throw line in Game 1 that isn't likely to happen again.  They made 16 more free throws than the Bucks, who only attempted 16 for the game.  Milwaukee is a great team at getting to the rim and drawing fouls and should get more benefit from the whistles in Game 2.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-127)

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade as he is one of the worst starters in baseball.  That has shown this season as he is 3-9 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 17 starts.  He is 0-7 with a 10.85 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing 45 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings as well.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid for the Blue Jays this season at 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 16 starts, including 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.039 WHIp in nine road starts.  He has never lost to the Orioles, going 3-0 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Harvey has allowed 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 11 innings across two starts against the Blue Jays in 2021.  Baltimore is 3-16 in home games after losing two of its last three games this season, losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.

Toronto is 11-1 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 5.90 ERA or worse over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  Ryu is 52-17 against the money line vs. a team with a losing record in his career with his teams winning by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +131

The Detroit Tigers have been criminally underrated over the last couple months.  They have gone 30-23 in their last 53 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And now they are big road dogs to the lowly Texas Rangers, who are just 34-52 this season and shouldn't be this big of favorites against anyone.

Detroit sends its best starter to the mound today in Casey Mize.  He is 5-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 16 starts this season with the Tigers going 9-7 (+8.2 units) in those starts.  He has been at his best on the road at 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in nine starts away from home.

Kyle Gibson has posted spectacular numbers this season for the Rangers, but he simply cannot keep this up for an entire season.  Gibson is 10-9 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 22 career starts against Detroit.

Mize is 7-3 (+9.8 units) after a team loss this season.  Detroit is 10-3 (+10.1 units) in Wednesday games this season.  Texas is 15-41 vs. a starting pitcher that walks 1.75 or fewer batters per start over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 18-35 in their last 53 games overall.  Texas is 14-33 in its last 47 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Tigers Wednesday.

25* MLB Pre-All Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves -136

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday afternoon.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates and definitely want to avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with a big advantage on the mound today that should warrant them being bigger favorites than this given the situation.  Drew Smyly is 3-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just one earned run in 17 1/3 innings.

He'll be opposed by William Crowe, who is 1-5 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in 11 starts thsi season.  Crowe has posted an 8.59 ERA and 2.456 WHIP in two career starts against the Braves, allowing 7 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.

Atlanta is 67-24 in its last 91 road games revenging a loss as a road favorite of -150 or more.  Pittsburgh is 3-18 in its last 21 Wednesday games.  Smyly is 11-0 vs. terrible speed teams that average 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game in the second half of the season in his career.  Smyly is 7-0 in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +6

I cashed in the Bucks in Games 5 and Games 6 against the Atlanta Hawks without Giannis.  The loss of him has created a big overreaction from the oddsmakers and the betting public, and that looks to be the case again in Game 1 against the Phoenix Suns as he is listed as doubtful.

The Bucks have now gone 8-2 this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't.  Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and Portis combined for 106 points in the Game 5 win over the Hawks.  Middleton had 32 points and Holiday 27 in the Game 6 win.  Those are two of the most underrated players in the NBA and fully capable of keeping the Bucks competitive in this series without Giannis.

The Suns won both regular season meetings, but by just one point each.  I look for Game 1 to go down to the wire as well, so there is value in getting the Bucks as 6-point underdogs.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -115

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory following three straight losses despite scoring 5 runs in all three defeats.  That kind of run support will be good enough to give Cy Young contender Carlos Rodon a win tonight.

Rodon is 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in 14 starts this season with 122 K's in 83 2/3 innings.  He has been at his best away from home, going 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in seven road starts.

Chicago is 26-8 vs. AL teams that allow 4.9 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 44-17 in their last 61 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 9-2 in its last 11 meetings with Minnesota.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +157

The Detroit Tigers have been criminally underrated over the last couple months.  They have gone 30-22 in their last 52 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And now they are big road dogs to the lowly Texas Rangers, who are just 33-52 this season.

I cashed in the Tigers yesterday as +142 underdogs and I'm back on them again today as even bigger +157 dogs.  The Rangers just shouldn't be this big of a favorite against anyone.  And it's not like Dane Dunning has been great as he is just 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 16 starts this season for Texas.

Jose Urena is 16-9 (+15.8 units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season in his career.  Detroit is a very profitable 14-11 (+10.1 units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Rangers are 17-35 in their last 52 games overall.  Texas is 13-33 in its last 46 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -125

I'll gladly jump on this opportunity to back the Los Angeles Dodgers as a short road favorite over the lowly Miami Marlins tonight.  The Dodgers have such a big advantage at the plate that makes up for the perceived disadvantage on the mound.

But Tony Gonsolin is one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues for the Dodgers as well.  He has posted a 2.77 ERA in his four starts this season and the Dodgers have gone 4-0 in those four starts.

The Dodgers are 87-34 in their last 121 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 36-16 in its last 52 games overall.  Miami is 23-53 in its last 76 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-112)

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated to bounce back from their 11-1 loss to the Pirates in Game 1 of this series as nearly -200 favorites.  I expect them to win Game 2 by two runs or more due to their advantage on the mound.

Ian Anderson is 5-4 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in eight road starts.  He fired six shutout innings in a 20-1 win over the Pirates on May 21st in his only career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Chad Kuhl, who is 2-5 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

Atlanta is 29-11 after scoring two runs or less over the last two seasons, coming back to win by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Pittsburgh is 4-18 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Atlanta is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +142

The Detroit Tigers have been criminally underrated over the last couple months.  They have gone 29-22 in their last 51 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And now they are big road dogs to the lowly Texas Rangers, who are just 33-51 this season.

Kolby Allard and the Rangers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  Allard is 1-4 with a 3.66 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in three home starts.  Wily Peralta has pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Astros and Indians to improve to 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in three starts this season for the Tigers.

Texas is 5-21 in its last 26 games after playing three or more consecutive road games.  The Rangers are 13-32 in their last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Texas is 15-37 in its last 52 games during Game 1 of a series.  The Rangers are 15-33 in their last 48 games overall.  Roll with the Tigers Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -110

We just saw this matchup between Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober on June 30th less than a week ago.  The White Sox won 13-3 as Cease held the Twins to two earned runs in 6 innings.  Ober allowed 5 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to take the loss.

That dropped Ober to 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in six starts this season.  He is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in three home starts.  Cease has been solid all season at 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 16 starts.

Chicago is 8-1 vs. Minnesota this season.  The White Sox are 38-13 in their last 51 games as favorites.  The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games overall.  Minnesota is 8-21 in its last 29 games as an underdog.  

Cease is 10-0 against the money line vs. teams with a losing record this season.  Chicago is winning by 6.0 runs per game in this spot.  Take the White Sox Monday.

20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-111)

The Atlanta Braves are finally starting to play up to their potential.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games while scoring a combined 35 runs during this stretch.  Now they are one more win away from getting to .500 on the season.

They should handle the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chase De Jong tonight.  The Pirates are 1-6 in their last seven games with all six losses by two runs or more to fall to 30-53 this season.  De Jong has struggled mightily at 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in his six starts this season.

Max Fried is really coming around for the Braves.  He is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA in his last nine starts while allowing just 16 earned runs in 51 2/3 innings.  He has allowed exactly one earned run in six of those nine starts.  Fried held the Pirates to one run in 7 innings of a 7-1 victory on May 23rd in his lone start against them this season.

Fried is 11-1 against the money line vs. NL Central opponents in his career.  The Braves are winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -148

The Seattle Mariners have quietly gone 44-40 this season.  They take on a Texas Rangers team that is just 33-50 this season, including 13-29 in road games.  And I'm willing to lay this number with the Mariners due to their advantage on the mound tonight.

Chris Flexen has been dominant at home this season for the Mariners.  He is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight home starts.  He is also 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last three starts.  Flexen has never lost to the Rangers, going 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three career starts against them, two of which have come in 2021.

Mike Foltynewicz is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has really struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts away from home.  Foltynewicz has never beaten the Mariners, going 0-2 with a 5.58 ERA in three career starts against them, two of which have come in 2021.

The Rangers 16-48 in their last 64 road games.  Seattle is 13-5 in its last 18 games overall.  The Mariners are 20-6 in their last 26 home meetings, and 13-3 in the last 16 meetings overall.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

I cashed in the Bucks in Game 5 and I'm back on them again in Game 6 due to the line value.  Consider that the Bucks were 8 and 8.5-point home favorites in Games 1 and 2.  And they were 5 and 8.5-point road favorites in Games 3 and 4.  Then they were -2 for Game 5 at the time we bet them and cashed that ticket.  Now they are underdogs for the first time in this series in Game 6.

The value is clearly with the Bucks, who have actually gone 7-2 SU this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't.  The loss of Giannis is getting a big overreaction from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Trae Young has also missed the last two games for the Hawks and he is almost more important to them than Giannis is to the Bucks.  Young is questionable to return tonight and won't be anywhere near 100% if he does.

Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two of the most underrated players in the NBA.  Middleton had 26 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 while Holiday added 25 points and 13 assists.  They got Brook Lopez involved as he scored 33 points, and Bobby Portis had 22.  There is just more talent outside of Giannis on their team than there is on the Hawks outside of Young.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -117

The Chicago White Sox are 33-7 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons and winning by 3.1 runs per game.  They are 8-0 after scoring 8 runs or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.

The White Sox come in hot at the plate scoring 7 runs or more in five straight games during their five-game winning streak.  They should stay hot against Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal, who si 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 14 starts this season.  Skubal is 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox.

Dallas Keuchel is 6-2 with a 3.87 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA in his last three.  He is 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in nine career starts against the Tigers as well and his teams have gone 7-2 in those starts.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -118

I cashed in the Braves as a short home favorite yesterday and I'm back on them today at a similar price.  It's rare that you get the opportunity to back the Braves as this short of a home favorite against the Miami Marlins and we'll take advantage today.

The Braves have the superior lineup which makes up for whatever perceived disadvantage they have on the mound.  But I like what I've seen from Kyle Muller thus far as he has posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his two starts this season, allowing just one earned run and 6 base runners in 9 innings with 12 K's.

Sandy Alcantara is 4-7 despite a 3.04 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in his 17 starts this season.  That's because the Marlins struggle to score runs as they average just 3.9 runs per game this season and 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters.  The Braves are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this season.

Miami is 1-10 in road games vs. left-handed starters this season.  The Marlins are 5-22 after scoring two runs or less this season.  The Braves are 38-16 in the last 54 meetings.  Take the Braves Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -139

The San Francisco Giants will be looking to bounce back from an upset loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday. They have now lost four straight games overall and will be highly motivated for a victory.

Alex Wood gets the ball for the Giants tonight and is 6-3 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Zac Gallen, who is 1-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in eight starts, including 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in his last three.

Wood is 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Diamondbacks, including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three while allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 innings. Gallen is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants, allowing 8 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 2-31 vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 or more K's per start this season. The Giants are 42-18 in their last 60 games as favorites. Bet the Giants Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/A's OVER 8.5

The total has been set too low for this game against the Red Sox and A's, which have two of the more underrated lineups in baseball. And there is 10 MPH winds forecast to be blowing out to center in Oakland tonight to held aid this OVER.

The Red Sox are scoring 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season while the A's are scoring 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starters. Righy Frankie Montas goes for the A's and lefty Eduardo Rodriquez goes for the Red Sox.

Rodriquez is 6-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in 10 road starts. He is 0-3 with a 7.92 ERA in his last four starts against the A's, allowing 17 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. Montas is 7-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 16 starts this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The OVER is 21-6 in Rodriquez's last 27 road starts. The OVER is 7-1 in A's last eight home games. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Marlins/Braves NL East ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -114

It's rare that you will get the opportunity to back the Atlanta Braves as this short of a home favorite over the Miami Marlins and we'll take advantage today. The Braves are coming alive with 24 runs in their last two games and they just beat Jacob DeGrom and the Mets yesterday.

Now they face Pablo Lopez and the Marlins. While Lopez has been awesome at home this season, he is just 2-1 with a 4.10 ERA in his seven road starts. Lopez is 2-6 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Braves as well. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts against them.

Drew Smyly has rebounded from a poor start this season to go 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.020 WHIp in his last three starts. Smyly is 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins as well.

The Marlins are 20-46 in their last 66 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 4-13 in its last 17 road games. Atlanta is 37-16 in the last 53 meetings, including 22-8 in the last 30 home meetings. Roll with the Braves Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals finally got on track by sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks last series. I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Colorado Rockies Thursday.

The Cardinals clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one. Adam Wainwright is 6-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three. He is 10-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Rockies as well.

Wainwright shut out the Rockies in 8 1/3 innings of a 2-0 victory on May 9th in his lone start against them this season. He'll be opposed by Antonio Senzatela, who is 2-7 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Senzatela is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in six career starts against St. Louis as well.

The Cardinals are 29-13 in their last 42 road games with a line of +100 to -150. Wainwright is 35-12 in July starts in his career. St. Louis is 47-19 in the last 66 meetings. Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -2

We are getting great value on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 tonight when you compare the previous lines in this series. We'll take advantage and back the Bucks as a short home favorite.

The Bucks were 8-point home favorites in Game 1, 8.5-point home favorites in Game 2, 5-point road favorites in Game 3 and 8.5-point road favorites in Game 4. So this is a huge adjustment and it's not warranted, even with the injury to Giannis.

The Hawks rallied without Trae Young in Game 4, and the Bucks will do the same thing without Giannis in Game 5. There's still enough talent on this team to get the job done and hold serve while Giannis misses at least one game. And the Hawks could be missing two of their best players in Young and Clint Capela, who are both questionable.

Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -124

The Los Angeles Dodgers are about as healthy as they have been all season right now and it's starting to show. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and come in rested after sweeping the Giants and having yesterday off.

The Washington Nationals are also playing well right now, but they just played yesterday and won't be as fresh. I'll gladly fade Pat Corbin, who is 5-6 with a 5.34 ERA in 15 starts for the Nationals this season.

One of those starts came against the Dodgers on April 10th when Corbin allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-9 loss. And Tony Gonsolin is criminally underrated when he starts for the Dodgers because he isn't a big name. Gonsolin has posted a 2.77 ERA as a starter this season.

The Dodgers are 15-1 in their last 16 games after playing six or more consecutive home games. Corbin is 0-9 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons. Corbin is 1-10 vs. NL teams that average 4.5 or more runs per game over the last two seasons. Take the Dodgers Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix +1

The Los Angeles Clippers had one of those shooting performances in Game 5 that is simply tough to overcome.  They won't shoot that well again in Game 6, and I fully expect the Suns to close out this series.

The Clippers shot 54.8% from the field and 93.3% from the free throw line in Game 5.  Paul George went 15-of-20 shooting and Reggie Jackson went 8-of-14 while Marcus Morris went 9-of-16.  It's unlikely those three shoot that well again as they are asked to carry the brunt of the scoring load.

The Suns shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 before falling down to 38.9% in Game 3, 36% in Game 4 and 45.2% in Game 5.  Look for them to get back to closer to 50% in Game 6 tonight.

Phoenix is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.  The Suns are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Astros OVER 9.5

The Baltimore Orioles have scored 9 and 13 runs in the first two games of this series while pulling two huge upsets. Their bats are really coming together and after getting to both Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy, they'll be able to get to Luis Garcia today as well.

The Astros are more than capable of covering this OVER on their own if need be. They are the best hitting team in baseball. They hit .277 as a team and score 5.6 runs per game.

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade this season, and we'll fade him by backing the OVER here. Harvey is 3-9 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.735 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has never beaten the Astros, going 0-3 with a 12.79 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in three career starts against them.

The OVER is 12-2 in Orioles last 14 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 20-7 in Orioles last 27 games with a total set of 9 to 10.5. The OVER is 7-0 in Astros last seven games as a home favorite. The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays have George Springer back healthy and one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall with seven wins by two runs or more.  They have scored 5 runs or more seven times during this stretch.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning by two runs or more again. Steven Matz is 7-3 with a 4.26 ERA in 13 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Justus Sheffield, who is 5-7 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 13 starts this season. 

Sheffield is 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.806 WHIP in six road starts this season, and 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last three starts. He gave up 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 innings to the Blue Jays in his only career start against them.

Seattle is 20-94 in its last 114 games as an underdog of +200 or more and losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot. The Mariners are 12-32 in their last 44 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Atlanta +7

We are getting great value on the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 tonight. They go from being 4.5-point underdogs in Game 3 to 7-point dogs in Game 4, a 2.5-point adjustment.

The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Bucks. They haven't lost three in a row since the end of April, so they have been a very resilient team. They are still 16-7 SU in their last 23 games overall.

The Hawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. Atlanta is 51-23 ATS in its last 74 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-109)

The Toronto Blue Jays have George Springer back healthy and one of the most potent lineups in baseball. They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall with six wins by two runs or more. They have scored 5 runs or more six times during this stretch.

Robbie Ray is now 5-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in five home starts. Ray has posted a 3.18 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners as well.

Chris Flexen has been great at home for the Mariners this season, but it has been a different story on the road. Flexen has posted a 7.27 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in five starts on the highway this season.

The Mariners are 12-31 in their last 43 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 games after having an off day. Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +100

The Miami Marlins had yesterday off and will be refreshed. The Philadelphia Phillies had to play a make up game in Cincinnati and lost 12-4. The Phillies are now just 2-6 in their last eight games overall and will be playing their 6th game in 5 days.

The Marlins have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should not be underdogs because of it. Trevor Rogers is 7-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in nine road starts. Rogers has face the Phillies twice in 2021, allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings for a 1.42 ERA.

He'll be opposed by Vincent Velasquez, who is 2-2 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He is 0-2 with a 7.97 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings. Velasquez has posted a 4.54 ERA in 18 career starts against Miami.  Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes on, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is for the offense to execute.

That has been the case in this series between the Suns and Clippers. They combined for 234 points in Game 1, then just 207 points in Game 2, 198 points in Game 3 and 164 points in Game 4.

While I don't expect Game 5 to be as low scoring as Game 4 with 164 points, we have plenty of margin for error here with this 214.5-point total. Both teams aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 4, but I don't see either team lighting it up either in this elimination game.

The UNDER is 31-15 in Clippers last 46 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 35-17-3 in Clippers last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Astros OVER 9.5

The Houston Astros are the best offensive team in baseball. They are hitting .277 and scoring 5.7 runs per game this season. They can cover this OVER on their own, which they did in this exact same matchup last week.

Tom Eshelman allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in a 13-0 victory for the Astros on June 23rd. Zack Greinke also faced the Orioles in that series and while he had success, I think it only benefits to Baltimore having seen him twice in a week.

Eshelman is now 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA in two starts this season. Greinke has been at his worst at home, going 3-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in eight home starts.

The OVER is 12-4 in Greinke's 16 starts this season, including 7-1 in his eight home starts. The OVER is 13-6-2 in Orioles last 21 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 9-4 in Astros last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +140

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 25-20 in their last 45 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game. They have been very profitable to back because of it and I like the value with them today in Game 1 against the Cleveland Indians.

I'll gladly fade Cleveland's Eli Morgan, who is 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 19 base runners in 11 1/3 innings.

I like what I've seen from Detroit's Matt Manning in his two starts this season against the Angels and Cardinals. Manning is 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.218 WHIP while allowing just 4 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Roll with the Tigers Monday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another and the harder it is for the offenses to score.

After combining for 229 points in Game 1, the Hawks and Bucks only combined for 216 points in Game 2.  And I think it will be even lower scoring in Game 3, so there's value with the UNDER 224 tonight.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Bucks last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Hawks last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game tonight.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -125

The Washington Nationals are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. But they have lost two straight games to the Marlins the past two days and will be highly motivated for a victory because of it.

I like the Nationals' chances of finishing off this series with a win with ace Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer is 6-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He has allowed 2 runs or less in nine starts starts and 12 of his last 13 starts.

Scherzer is also 14-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 25 career starts against Miami. He pitched a complete game while allowing just one run and five base runners in a 3-1 victory over the Marlins on May 2nd.

He'll be opposed by Sandy Alcantara, who is 1-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six career starts against Washington. The Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Washington is 44-18 in the last 62 meetings. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last six games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or better. Roll with the Nationals Sunday.

20* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-127)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and really starting to swing the bats now that George Springer is back healthy.  They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 2-15 in their last 17 games overall with 12 losses by two runs or more.

Ross Stripling is in a groove right now. He is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 9 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. And the competition has been stiff as he has faced the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Indians and Marlins in those five starts.

Jorge Lopez is 2-9 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 15 starts this season for the Orioles. Lopez has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA and 2.293 WHIP in three career starts against them. He has allowed 17 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in those three starts.

Baltimore is 3-20 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game this season. It is losing by over 3 runs per game in this spot. Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5

After a shootout in Game 1, the Suns and Clippers have come back down to earth the past two games.  And the longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another.  That familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Game 2 saw 207 combined points in a 104-103 victory by the Suns.  Game 3 saw 198 combined points in a 106-92 victory by the Clippers.  And Game 4 should stay well UNDER this 218.5-point total.

Having Chris Paul back makes the Suns a better defensive team, and a more efficient offensive team, but he was clearly rusty in Game 3 going 5-of-19 from the floor.  And Devin Booker is having to wear a mask which made him go 5-of-21 in Game 3.  The Suns have to play at a slower pace with Paul running the point and getting them in sets almost every trip down the floor.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 23-10-3 in Clippers last 36 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +139

The Texas Rangers are 28-48 this season and have no business being a -150 favorite against anyone.  The value is with the Kansas City Royals, who will be making this a bullpen game with Kyle Zimmer getting the start.

Kyle Gibson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to his 5-0 record and 2.17 ERA for the Rangers this season.  But Gibson's worst start this season came against the Royals on April 1st when he allowed 5 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning.  He has now allowed 8 earned runs in 2 innings in his last two starts against the Royals for a 36.00 ERA.

Texas is 14-35 (-15.9 units) against right-handed starters this season.  The Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games following a win.  Texas is 6-21 in its last 27 games overall.  Roll with the Royals Saturday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-143)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six games overall and really starting to swing the bats now that George Springer is back healthy.  They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 2-14 in their last 16 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound today that will lead to them winning by two runs or more.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 6-4 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Ryu has never lost to the Orioles, going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Keegan Akin still hasn't won this season as he is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five starts.  That includes 0-3 with a 10.53 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last three, allowing 16 earned runs and 29 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Akin has posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in two career starts against the Blue Jays as well.

Ryu is 51-17 as a start in his career against a team with a losing record.  His teams are winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 3-19 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.1 runs per game.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +212 (Game 1)

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 23-19 in their last 42 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And I think they are getting disrespected too much in Game 1 of this double-header against the Houston Astros today.

The Astros are overvalued at this point due to their 11-game winning streak.  I think having yesterday's game postponed due to weather can only kill their momentum.  And I think Framber Valdez is also getting too much respect for what he has done in limited action this season.

But the reason the Tigers are worth a bet today is because Casey Mize is grossly underrated.  He has posted a 3.61 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 14 starts this season and the Tigers are 8-6 (+7.2 units) in those starts.  Mize shut out the Astros in 7 innings of a 6-2 victory as a +230 underdog on April 12th earlier this season in his lone career start against them.  Take the Tigers in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks pulled their 3rd straight Game 1 victory on the road in these playoffs.  Now it's time for the Milwaukee Bucks to not take them lightly in Game 2 and to get the job done to even this series.

We saw the Hawks lose both Game 2's in their first two series as well after winning Game 1.  They lost by 9 to the Knicks and then by 16 to the 76ers.  And I think we see a double-digit victory by the Bucks here tonight.

A lot went right for the Hawks in Game 1 that likely won't go in their favor again.  They shot 49.5% as a team while the Bucks shot just 8-of-36 (22.2%) from 3-point range.  The Bucks also attempted only 14 free throws, so the calls weren't going their way.  They will get to the line much more in Game 2 as they are more aggressive in attacking the rim.

Plays against underdogs (Atlanta) - off two consecutive upset wins as road underdogs, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+105)

The Chicago White Sox are 33-6 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  They have been the best team in baseball against southpaws during this span.  And they come in highly motivated for a victory after losing five of their six road games during their six-game trip.

Now the White Sox are back home where they are 27-12 this season and winning by 1.5 runs per game.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Carlos Rodon, who is a Cy Young candidate at 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 105 K's in 73 2/3 innings.

Rodon has never lost to the Mariners, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in four career starts against them.  His teams have gone 4-0 in those games with all four wins by two runs or more.  He'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi, who is 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.592 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 7 2/3 innings. 

Seattle is 19-82 in its last 101 games as a road underdog of +200 or more, losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Against, Chicago is 33-6 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons and winning by 3.2 runs per game.  Take the White Sox on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +110

The Kansas City Royals just had to play the Red Sox and Yankees in back to back series and managed to go 3-3.  Now they take a big step down in class against the Texas Rangers, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall to fall to 27-48 on the season.  They should not be underdogs to the Rangers tonight.

Mike Minor has done his best work on the road this season, going 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six starts away from home.  He'll be highly motivated to beat his former team in the Rangers tonight.

Dane Dunning is 2-6 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Rangers and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  Dunning is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 7 earned runs and 21 base runners in 8 innings.

The Rangers are 2-12 (-10.4 units) in Dunning's 14 starts this season.  The Royals are 7-2 in their last nine games during Game 1 of a series.  The Rangers are 16-42 in their last 58 during Game 1 of a series.  Texas is 18-38 in its last 56 games overall.  Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +132

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They have scored a combined 34 runs during their five-game winning streak.  And they should get after Pablo Lopez and the struggling Miami Marlins tonight.

The Marlins are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball and have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They are 2-8 in their last 10 contests.  Lopez is 2-2 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in eight career starts against the Nationals.

Jon Lester is getting massively disrespected as an underdog tonight.  Lester has pitched 11 innings without allowing a single earned run in his last two starts against the Marlins.  Lester has posted a 3.96 ERA n 10 starts this season and a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Nationals are 9-0 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.  Washington is 44-16 in the last 60 meetings.  Miami is 1-11 in its last 12 games when its opponent scored 5 runs or more in its previous game.  Take the Nationals Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-136)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games overall and really starting to swing the bats now that George Springer is back healthy.  They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 1-14 in their last 15 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.  That includes the 9-0 victory by the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series yesterday.

Alek Manoah has held his own this season at 1-0 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in five starts.  He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who is one of my favorite starters to fade.  Harvey is 3-9 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He is 0-6 with a 13.17 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 40 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings.

Baltimore is 3-22 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Orioles are 2-19 vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Baltimore is 0-14 in road games after four or more consecutive losses this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML +106

Amazingly, the Los Angeles Clippers have trailed 2-0 in each of their first two series in these playoffs.  They've come back to win both series, beating the Mavericks in 7 and winning four straight to beat the Jazz in 6.

So the Clippers are a resilient bunch that won't be phased by being down 2-0 to the Suns.  And they won those final two games against Utah without Kawhi Leonard outright as underdogs before taking the Suns to the wire in each of the first two games in this series in 6 and 1-point losses.

Now the Clippers are back home where their fans will be very excited to see them playing in the Western Conference Finals.  Plus, I expect the Suns to relax a little, especially coming off a game-winner like they just had in Game 2.  I don't expect them to continue shooting as well as they have either as they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 yet still only won those games by a combined 7 points.

Los Angeles is 34-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU loss.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-135)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .279 as a team and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  They have won 10 straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in eight of those victories.

Now they will feast on Detroit starter Jose Urena, who is 0-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.849 WHIP in six home starts this season.  He has been absolutely shelled in his last two starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 innings to the Angels and White Sox.

The Astros have a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Luis Garcia, who is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 73 K's and only 48 hits allowed in 64 1/3 innings.  Garcia held the White Sox to one run in seven innings and the Blue Jays to one run in six innings in two recent starts, which are two of the better lineups in baseball.

Detroit is 11-40 in its last 51 home games vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 K's or more per start.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Urena is 2-20 vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 1.0 or more runs per game in his career.  His teams are losing by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Bucks OVER 225.5

Game 1 is the game to take an OVER in an NBA playoff series.  Teams don't know what to expect from one another and it gives the edge to the offenses.  We've seen that with the Hawks as they have gone OVER the total in both their Game 1's in these playoffs.  They combined with the 76ers for 252 points in Game 1 last series.

The Bucks are coming off a down offensive series against the Nets, but they should get right here against the Hawks.  Atlanta just doesn't have an answer for Giannis, so he'll be able to get whatever he wants.

The Hawks and Bucks combined for 244, 229 and 215 points in their three regular season meetings.  I think this 225.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1 at least.  Both teams attempt a ton of 3-pointers and hit them at a high clip.  That should be the case here with plenty of defensive mistakes in Game 1.

The OVER is 17-8-1 in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -115

The Toronto Blue Jays just got George Springer back in the lineup and now have one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  They should be bigger favorites over the Marlins, who have scored 4 or fewer runs in eight of their past 10 games and struggle to score runs all season.

Robbie Ray is 4-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Blue Jays.  Ray owns the Marlins with a 2.16 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He held them to just one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-1 victory on June 1st earlier this month.

Trevor Rogers has posted good numbers this season and is getting a lot of respect because of it.  But the Blue Jays are scoring 5.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season and should get to him.  The Marlins are scoring just 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters.

Toronto is 12-2 vs. NL opponents this season.  Miami is 5-19 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last six vs. American League opponents.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-123)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .276 as a team and scoring 5.6 runs per game, including .284 and 5.8 in road games.  They have won nine straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in seven of those victories.

Now they take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is just 1-12 in their last 13 games with nine losses by two runs or more.  They should feast on Tom Eshelman, who will be making just his second start of the season for the lowly Orioles.

Jose Urquidy has been a solid starter for the Astros this season at 5-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He will shut down this weak Baltimore lineup that is scoring just 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handed starters this season.

Houston is 13-1 after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 2-17 vs. AL teams that average 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  It is losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Suns ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 222.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have embraced their small ball lineup and it is paying dividends while also resulting in high-scoring games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Clippers last six games overall with combined scores of 222 or more points in all six games and an average of 233.7 combined points per game.

The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul, which hurts them defensively but it makes them play at a faster pace offensively.  So this series should be an OVER series until he returns.  And that was the case in Game 1 which saw 234 combined points despite only 26 combined free throws attempted.  There will surely be more foul calls in Game 2 tonight.

The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 4-0 in Clippers last four games as underdogs.  The OVER is 12-4-1 in Suns last 17 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 25-12-1 in Suns last 38 games overall.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .277 as a team and scoring 5.7 runs per game, including .285 and 5.9 in road games.  They have won eight straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in seven of those victories.

Now they take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is just 1-11 in their last 12 games with eight losses by two runs or more.  And they should feast on Jorge Lopez, who is 2-8 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Lopez allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 1/3 innings of a 9-0 loss to the Astros in his only career start against them.

Zack Greinke has been solid this season at 7-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 15 starts.  Greinke has been at his best on the road, going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

Baltimore is 0-11 after a five-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or higher this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Houston is 12-1 after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago White Sox -158

The Chicago White Sox are now 33-5 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  They are scoring 6.3 runs per game against left-handed starters in 2021.  And they will be highly motivated to get back in the win column today after losing four straight coming in.

Now they take on the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who have gone just 2-11 in their last 13 games overall.  They should feast on left-hander Tyler Anderson, who is 3-7 with a 4.89 ERA in 13 starts this season.

Lucas Giolito is back to being his dominant self after a slow start to the season.  Giolito has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last nine starts and hasn't been shelled in any of them.  He fired a no-hitter against the Pirates in his last start against them last season in a 4-0 victory.  Bet the White Sox Tuesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks have allowed 9 or more runs in five of their last six games.  They have allowed 5 or more runs in nine of their last 10 games as well.  The Brewers have allowed 5 or more runs in four straight games.

These are two terrible starting pitchers going today.  Brett Anderson is 2-4 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 11 starts for the Brewers, including 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in seven road starts.  Anderson is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 20 base runners in 9 innings.

Merrill Kelly is 2-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kelly is 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA in his last two starts against the Brewers, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 10 1/3 innings.

Arizona is 7-0 OVER in home games after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span this season.  The OVER is 15-5-3 in Brewers last 23 road games with a total of 9 to 10.5 runs.  The OVER is 9-1 in Diamondbacks last 10 games with a total set of 9 to 10.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  We are now into Game 7 so the Hawks and 76ers are very familiar with one another.  And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series from Games 4 through 6.  They combined for 203 points in Game 4, 215 points in Game 5 and 203 points in Game 6.  And now we have another total that is set way too high here at 217.5 for Game 7.

Atlanta is 16-1 UNDER in its last 17 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  The Hawks are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games when facing elimination in a playoff series.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 playoff games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Hawks last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (Atlanta) - in the 7th game of a playoff series are 52-22 (70.3%) since 1996.  Game 7 UNDERS have been money in the bank for years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +136

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series in San Diego.  I like the value we are getting with the Reds today as I believe they have the advantage on the mound.

Luis Castillo has finally turned the corner and gotten back to how dominant he was last season after a slow start this season.  Castillo is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his las three starts.  He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last two starts against the Padres while holding them to just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.

Dinelson Lamet just hasn't been extended this season as he is averaging just 3.1 innings per start.  Lamet is 0-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in his seven starts, in which the Padres are just 2-5 (-6.3 units).  He has been grossly overvalued all season and is again today as a -160 favorite.

Cincinnati is 8-0 in its last eight road games when playing with triple revenge, coming back to win by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Reds Sunday.

15* AL Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +148

The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory today to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the Los Angeles Angels.  The Tigers finally have the advantage on the mound today and should get a win because of it.

Casey Mize is one of the best young starters in baseball for the Tigers.  He is 4-4 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in eight road starts.

He'll be opposed by Dylan Bundy, who is 1-7 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  That includes 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in his last three starts.  Bundy has never beaten the Tigers, going 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Bundy is 0-7 (-9.1 units) against the money line following a team win this season.  The Angels are losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Tigers Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -103

The New York Mets have a big advantage on the mound today and should be bigger favorites because of it.  Taijaun Walker is 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Walker is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts against the Nationals.

Walker fired 7 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Nationals in his lone start against them this season.  He'll be opposed by the inconsistent Pat Corbin, who is 4-5 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Corbin is 4-7 with a 4.53 ERA in 17 career starts against the Mets as well.

Walker is 11-1 as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Corbin is 0-9 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-119)

The Baltimore Orioles are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall with seven losses by two runs or more.  Chalk another one up today as the Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound over the Orioles.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Ryu is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Orioles over the past two seasons, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.

He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Harvey is 3-8 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Worse yet, Harvey is 0-6 with a 14.09 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 36 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.