15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +14.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their only losses coming by 6 to St. Bonaventure on a neutral and by 11 at Pittsburgh.  They can stay within 14.5 points of the Michigan State Spartans tonight. 

The Spartans are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS and came into the season as the No. 1 ranked team.  They are far from it.  They were upset by Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Duke and failed to put away teams like Seton Hall, Georgia and UCLA.  They only have two wins all season by more than 13 points. 

Making matters worse for the Spartans are the injuries.  They are without both Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts, who were expected to be two of their best players coming into the season.  Joey Hauser being ruled ineligible also hurt them. 

The Scarlet Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Rutgers has lost by 11 points or fewer in each of their last four meetings with the Spartans while going 3-1 ATS.  Bet Rutgers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7 

The Miami Heat have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-6 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in all games this year.  They have been unstoppable at home, going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS while winning by 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Chicago Bulls have been overrated all season.  They are 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in their 23 games this year.  The Bulls are coming off an ugly upset home loss to the Warriors and should be double-digit road dogs here to the Miami Heat. 

Chicago is 15-30 ATS in road games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Bulls spent last night in South Beach, so you can only imagine what they got into.  The Heat improve to 10-0 at home this season with another blowout win over the Bulls.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -2.5 

The Charlotte Hornets need to be favored by more than 2.5 points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  We’ll take advantage and side with the Hornets, who have been undervalued basically all season and consistently lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. 

The Hawks are 1-11 SU In their last 12 games overall with their only win coming at home against the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are missing some key players right now as John Collins remains suspended and De’Andre Hunter is out.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are fully healthy. 

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games this season.  Atlanta is 2-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Take the Hornets Sunday. 

15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in. 

This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win.  They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis.  It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves. 

The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs.  They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards.  It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it. 

Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season.  They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs.  Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done. 

This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans.  They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South.  Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week.  In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week.  I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week. 

Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss.  Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6 

This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday.  That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.  The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week.  And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.

Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers.  And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full.  The betting public just continues to hammer this team.  I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.

The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year.  And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now.  Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.

Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday.  That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs.  Yet nobody wants to believe in them.  I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.

The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league.  The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games.  Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on.  The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5 

It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago.  The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.  

 It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now.  Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets.  They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable. 

The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week.  They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards. 

The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.  The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents.  The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts +3.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost four of their last five games coming in.  And it’s a great spot to ’sell high’ on the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have won three of their last four coming in. 

The Colts’ four losses here recently can all be explained.  They lost to three potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Titans.  They had Brian Hoyer at QB for two of those losses to Miami and Pittsburgh.  They played the Texans tough in a 3-point road loss.  And last week’s 17-31 loss to the Titans was misleading as they had a 10-point swing when they were kicking a FG to go in the lead and had it blocked and returned for a TD with five minutes left.  They also outgained the Titans by 99 yards and deserved to win. 

The Bucs are playing much better, but keep in mind their three wins during this stretch came against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals, Falcons and Jaguars.  Their lone loss was a 17-34 home loss to the Saints.  Now the Bucs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 3.5-point favorites here against a playoff contender in the Colts. 

This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ type of game for the Colts.  They need a win to stay alive to win the AFC South, and they should get some help this week with the return of Marlon Mack at running back.  The Colts racked up 391 total yards on the Titans last week and now get Mack back.  They should be able to dice up a weak Tampa Bay defense that give up 28.8 points per game overall. 

The Bucs have actually played their worst football at home this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this year with their only win coming 30-27 over the Cardinals in comeback fashion.  They are giving up 31.0 points per game at home.  The Colts have the much better defense and have been competitive on the road, giving up just 21.2 points per game on the highway this year and 21.4 points per game overall. 

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Bucs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South opponents.  The Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Tampa Bay is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

I really like this UNDER tonight between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  And familiarity almost always favors the defenses because they know what to expect from the offenses. 

Not to mention, the first two meetings in this series went UNDER the total with combined scores of 213 points on November 15th and 197 points on November 29th.  Now, oddsmakers have somehow set this total way higher than it should be at 219 points in the 3rd meeting. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of their last 44 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 44-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Marquette/Kansas State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State PK 

For starters, Marquette player of the year candidate Markus Howard (26.0 PPG) is questionable to play tonight.  He sat out their last game with a concussion and is questionable to play again today.  The good news is I like Kansas State regardless of whether or not he plays, it would just be a bonus if he doesn’t. 

Marquette has been solid on a neutral and at home with the exception of a 21-point loss to Maryland.  But in their lone true road game, the Golden Eagles were blasted by a mediocre 4-4 Wisconsin team 61-77 as 2-point dogs.  And they will get blasted by Kansas State today as well. 

The Wildcats have only lost on a neutral this season.  They are 4-0 at home and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are once again a dominant defensive team this year, holding opponents to 58.4 points per game overall and 54.2 points per game at home. 

Marquette is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 12.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -3 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It’s almost criminal that they aren’t ranked yet.  They are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral to Maryland by 7 as 9-point dogs.  That’s a Maryland team that is ranked No. 3 in the country. 

Temple also has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat USC 70-61 as 9-point dogs.  They went on the road and beat Texas A&M 65-42 as 5-point favorites.  And they crushed Davidson 66-53 on a neutral as only 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 3-point favorites here Saturday against Missouri. 

The Tigers are just 4-4 this season and come in off a string of very disappointing showings.  They lost 52-63 to Butler on a neutral as 2-point favorites.  They were also upset as 1.5-point favorites against Oklahoma 66-77 on a neutral.  And they were just upset at home by Charleston Southern 60-68 as 23.5-point favorites.  This team is clearly overrated. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 11.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +11 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  It’s Year 3 under Brad Underwood, and this is where good head coaches make their mark.  Underwood is certainly impressing thus far in Year 3. 

The Fighting Illini returned four starters from last year and added in a great recruiting class.  They are off to a 6-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to Arizona and at home to Miami.  They’ll be highly motivated for their Big Ten opener against No. 3 Maryland tonight. 

The Terrapins are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as double-digit favorites over this solid Illinois squad.  They have narrow wins over Temple and Harvard by 7 points apiece, and I think they are in for a fight tonight.  Especially since Maryland only has two days to get ready for Illinois after playing Notre Dame on Wednesday, while Illinois has four days to get ready while being off since Monday. 

Illinois pulled the 78-67 upset over Maryland as 8.5-point dogs last year.  Maryland hasn’t beaten Illinois by more than 6 since 2016.  The Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. Take Illinois Saturday. 

20* Georgia/LSU SEC Championship No-Brainer on LSU -6.5 

LSU has been one of the three best teams in college football all season.  The Tigers have had few scares and have been in control in basically every game they’ve played from start to finish.  Their high-powered offense has only gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Tigers have scored 46 or more points in four straight games, including wins over Alabama & Texas A&M.  They are scoring 48.7 points per game and averaging 560.4 yards per game on the season.  It’s the best offense in school history, and not one I want to step in front of right now.  It will be the best offense that Georgia has seen yet this season, and it’s not really even close.  They certainly haven’t faced a QB and passing attack near the caliber of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and company.

Georgia definitely has one of the best defenses in the land.  But I question if Jake Fromm can keep up with LSU.  The Bulldogs have scored 27 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  Ed Orgeron said his defense hadn’t shown its best stuff yet heading into the Texas A&M game last week.  And the Tigers promptly beat the Aggies 50-7 and held them to 159 yards while forcing 3 turnovers.  A lot of the yardage and points the Tigers have given up have been in blowouts this season, so their season-long stats are a little misleading.  When they need stops, they can get them.

Georgia will be missing its leading receiver George Pickens for the 1st half due to suspension.  He has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six touchdowns this year.  Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager is now out for the season with an ankle injury.  He has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four scores.  Not having these two will make Fromm’s job even more difficult.  Plus, leading rusher D’Andre Swift (1,203 yards, 7 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  One bad hit and he could be out of this game.

Ed Orgeron is 6-0 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams that average 32-plus possession minutes and 21-plus first downs as the coach of LSU.  Georgia will have to abandon its plan to run the football and control the clock in this one once they find themselves behind.  And Fromm isn’t good enough, nor does he have the weapons to play catch-up.  Take LSU Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 

I really like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  They will be playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings with the Mavericks this season.  They’ll be motivated for a win, while the Mavericks will take them lightly and that will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us. 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans, who have lost seven straight coming in while going 1-5-1 ATS in the process.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Mavericks, who are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line is inflated due to these recent results from both teams. 

Plays against any team (Dallas) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home loss.  The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -6.5 

Central Michigan could be found as high as 300-1 to win the MAC after losing to Wisconsin 61-0 in their 2nd game of the season.  They’ve been money makers ever since and grossly undervalued all season.  And now they are the favorites to win the MAC title for good reason.

The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have been dominant statistically in MAC play, outgaining opponents by 168 yards per game.  Miami Ohio is actually getting outgained by 6 yards per game in MAC play this season.

The Redhawks didn’t play well down the stretch once they clinched the MAC title game.  They barely beat Akron 20-17 as 29-point favorites.  And last week they lost 27-41 to Ball State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  They were outgained by 303 yards by Ball State.

QB Brett Gabbert left that game with an injury and is questionable to return this week.  Backup QB Jackson Williamson went 4-for-11 for 52 yards with two interceptions in his place.  I don’t think it matters who starts for the Redhawks because they’ll get blown out either way.

Central Michigan has scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games overall.  The Chippewas are averaging 38 points & 515 yards per game in MAC play this season.  They are loaded at receiver and running back with great overall speed.  Their top two running backs in Ward and Lewis have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns.  That will help them on the fast track at Ford Field in Detroit.  Plus, they will have the home-field advantage with a short drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit.

The Chippewas have the best defensive line in the MAC.  They give up just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Miami Ohio allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  While these teams are pretty even defensively overall, there’s no question the Chippewas have a massive advantage on offense.  The Redhawks only average 24.6 points and 308.7 yards per game on the season, including 17.4 points and 281 yards per game on the road.

The Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Chippewas will cap off a tremendous turnaround from 1-11 to 9-4 with a blowout win over Miami Ohio and a MAC title.  Bet Central Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lafayette/Appalachian State UNDER 56 

Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette will be facing each other for the 4th time in two seasons.  They met in the regular season and Sun Belt Championship Game last year, and they met in the regular season and will face each other again in the Sun Belt title game against this year. 

It’s safe to say these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses.  That has proven to be the case in the three previous meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 and has gone under the total by an average of 25 points per game in the previous three meetings.  They have combined for 44, 49 and 24 points in the three meetings, so you can see there’s value with the UNDER 56 tonight. 

In their first meeting this season, Appalachian State won 17-7 at LA-Lafayette.  The Mountaineers managed only 343 total yards with most of those coming on their final drive that sealed the win for them.  The Rajin’ Cajuns managed only 254 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as both defenses win out in this one. 

Appalachian State is giving up just 18.7 points and 321.2 yards per game on the season, including 16.4 points and 277.6 yards per game in Sun Belt play.  Louisiana-Lafayette is giving p just 17.8 points per game on the season and 16.4 points per game in Sun Belt play.  Their numbers are nearly identical with Appalachian State, and both defenses are the reason these teams are in the title game. 

Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rajin’ Cajuns last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mountaineers last eight games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 92-96 road loss at Denver on November 22nd exactly two weeks ago.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home this time around.  And it’s a Nuggets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a road win over the Knicks last night. 

The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and are coming off a 112-93 home win over the Heat.  The Celtics improved to 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game.  This is a short number to be laying with the Celtics at home tonight given the rest advantage and revenge. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - off a road win when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 62-30 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Denver is 6-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

The biggest reason I’m on the UNDER tonight is due to the weather.  Forecasts are calling for 20-plus MPH winds with around a 75% chance of precipitation during the game in Santa Clara.  The weather conditions are going to make it difficult for both teams to throw the ball.  This is going to be a run and punt and play field position type of game. 

Both Utah and Oregon have the two best defenses in the Pac-12.  The Utes are giving up just 11.2 points and 241.6 yards per game on the season.  The Ducks are giving up just 15.7 points and 331.3 yards per game on the year.  Both teams have been dominant against the run with the Utes allowing 56 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry, and the Ducks allowing 106 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry. 

The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Utes last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Utes last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Ducks last nine games on grass.  It’s a poor playing surface at Levi’s Stadium, especially when it gets wet.  The weather will favor a defensive battle, and the books can’t set this number low enough.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win after dropping four straight coming in.  One of those losses was a 104-116 home loss to the Magic on November 27th, so they will be out for revenge just over a week later here in the rematch. 

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing 3rd game in 4 days and are overvalued off two straight wins over Washington and Phoenix. 

Plays against road favorites (Orlando) - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) off four or more consecutive losses, in December games are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 54-29 ATS in their last 73 games when playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Charlotte Hornets have certainly been more competitive than most prognosticators anticipated coming into the season.  They are 9-14 SU & 12-11 ATS in their 23 games this season.  They have won three of their last five coming in with their only losses coming on the road to Milwaukee and at home to Phoenix by 5 after the Suns closed on a 10-0 run. 

The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites.  They are getting that respect due to going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  But their six wins have come against the Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Cavs, Celtics and Hawks. 

The Nets beat the Hornets 101-91 at home on November 20th.  Now the Hornets want revenge at home this time around just over two weeks later.  The Hornets are 6-2 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Nets with one of those losses coming by 2 points. 

Brooklyn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.  Roll with the Hornets Friday. 

20* Providence/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +2 

Rhode Island returned all five starters this season and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule and have managed to go 5-3 this season.  Their only losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia and LSU.  They also beat Alabama outright by 14 as home underdogs and topped a good North Texas team by 13 as 6-point favorites on a neutral. 

Providence is 5-4 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  The Friars have been a huge disappointment against a much easier schedule than Rhode Island has faced.  They lost by 9 at Northwestern as 9-point favorites.  They lost at home to Pennsylvania outright as 15-point favorites.  And they also lost on a neutral to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost to College of Charleston on a neutral as 9-point favorites, and barely beat Pepperdine by 3 on a neutral as 7-point favorites. 

Providence is 14-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Rhode Island Friday. 

20* Cowboys/Bears FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5 

The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears are both 6-6 this season.  However, the Cowboys are favored for good reason here because they are much better than a 6-6 team, while the Bears are much worse than a 6-6 team.  I’ll lay the short number with the Cowboys here because of it. 

Dallas is outgaining its opponents by 111.1 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one of the best marks in the entire NFL.  The Cowboys have the top-ranked offense in the NFL at 432.8 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per play (6.5) and 1st in 3rd down conversion rate (49%). 

Chicago is getting outgained by 38 yards per game.  The Bears rank 30th in yard per play (4.6), 29th in 3rd down conversion rate (31%) and 29th in total offense at 281.8 yards per game.  Both teams are pretty equal on defense as the Bears are 7th in total defense at 319.7 yards per game and the Cowboys are 8th at 321.6 yards per game. 

Of back-to-back losses where they felt like they should have won against the Patriots and Bills, the Cowboys will be highly motivated for a win here Thursday.  And the Bears are coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions.  They needed a late comeback to beat the Lions and their 3rd-string quarterback last week. 

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after having lost three of its last four games overall the past three seasons.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season.  The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -7.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are loaded this season and a legit NCAA Tournament team.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Villanova.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall coming in, so they have been flying under the radar. 

Louisiana Tech has already been tested on the road against teams that are a similar caliber to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana.  I expect them to lose by double-digits tonight as well. 

The Bulldogs have been off since November 24th, so they’ll be ready to go tonight and completely focused.  Mississippi State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Mississippi State) - in a game involving two good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game, after leading int heir previous game by 15 or more points at halftime are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Mississippi State Thursday. 

15* Rockets/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1 

The Toronto Raptors are coming off their first home loss of the season.  The Miami Heat beat them in overtime.  The Raptors are now 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are in a tough spot off a double-overtime loss at San Antonio Tuesday.  Now they have to travel to Toronto and face a motivated Raptors team here tonight.  It’s a Raptors team that has been underrated all season at 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Houston is 3-12 ATS off a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.  Toronto is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Rockets.  Take the Raptors Thursday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -2.5 

This is the worst spot the Lakers have been in this entire season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  After playing in altitude last night in Denver, they now have to play in altitude again tonight in Utah.  The Lakers won’t have much left in the tank. 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win after losing four of five on their five-game road trip.  Now they’re back home where they are 8-1 on the season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They will take advantage of this tired Lakers team tonight and get a win and cover. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Lakers.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -3 

The New Mexico Lobos have NBA talent this season and should challenge for a Mountain West title.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to UTEP and on a neutral to Auburn.  They also have a road win at New Mexico State and an upset win over Wisconsin on a neutral as 6.5-point dogs.  They have been battle-tested. 

Boise State has been far from impressive this season at 4-2.  Their only good win came at home against BYU.  They lost at Oregon by 31 as 10.5-point dogs.  They were upset at home by UC-Irvine by 9 as 4.5-point favorites.  And now they won’t be competitive with New Mexico, either. 

The Lobos have one of the best home-court advantages in the country year in and year out in The Pit.  The Lobos are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 16.4 points per game.  The Broncos are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +2 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to an 8-0 start this season with three impressive road wins over Iowa, Boston College and Minnesota all as underdogs.  And now they are getting zero respect as home dogs to Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders were exposed in Las Vegas when they lost to Iowa 61-72 as 7-point favorites and were upset by Creighton as well 76-83 as 6-point favorites.  Leading scorer Jahmi’us Ramsey (17.3 PPG) missed the Creighton game and is questionable to play tonight as well. 

Texas Tech is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Blue Demons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 18.4 points per game.  Take DePaul Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane -1.5 

Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State before coming to Tulane.  Now he is already turning around this Tulane program in his first season.  The Green Wave are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and should be laying more than 1.5 points on the road over Southern Miss tonight. 

Tulane’s only loss this season came to Mississippi State as 10-point underdogs.  The Green Wave upset Utah as 8-point dogs on a neutral and their other five wins have all come by 9 points or more.  There is nothing fluky about their 6-1 start. 

Now Tulane takes on a rebuilding Southern Miss team that is 2-6 SU & 2-3-1 ATS this season.  The Golden Eagles’ only two wins have come at home against Delta State and William Carey.  Four of their six losses have come by 15 points or more with the only exceptions being their losses to South Alabama and North Florida. 

Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS int heir last five road games.  Tulane is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Roll with Tulane Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 226 

The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons just played less than two weeks ago.  The Bucks won 104-90 at home as 13-point favorites.  That game saw just 194 combined points, and now oddsmakers are setting the total at 226 in the rematch.  This total is way too high to say the least. 

The Pistons won’t have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days the last time they faced the Bucks and managed just 90 points on 40.7% shooting. 

The Pistons have been dynamite defensively over their last games in allowing just 98.4 points per game on 42.8% shooting.  The Bucks have held four of their last six opponents to 102 points or fewer and remain a very good defensive team. 

Detroit is 15-3 UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pistons last 52 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Detroit) - off a blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent that led its last game by 15 or more at the half are 53-13 (80.3%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Lakers/Nuggets NBA No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets had won 10 of 11 before suffering an upset loss at Sacramento on Saturday.  I believe they were overlooking the Kings and looking ahead to this huge showdown with the Lakers, which is understandable.  Now they’ve had two days off to get over that loss and get ready for the Lakers. 

The Lakers are coming off a 100-114 home loss to the Mavericks to end their 10-game winning streak.  I like fading teams the game after their long winning streak comes to an end because there just always seems to be a hangover effect.  And this is a tired Lakers team playing their 7th game in 12 days and have to travel to Utah tomorrow night. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Lakers winning all five games by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

20* FSU/Indiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Indiana -1 

Archie Miller finally has his best team at Indiana since he took over.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with all seven wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 22.8 points per game.  They are scoring 86.4 points per game on 51.4% shooting this season. 

The Hoosiers are also greatly improved defensively.  They are giving up 63.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting.  They are holding opponents to 11.2 points per game below their season averages.  They are also scoring 13.5 points per game more than their opponents average allowing on the season. 

I think this is a bad spot for Florida State.  They are coming off two straight nailbiting wins over Tennessee and Purdue on a neutral court by 3 points each.  Those two teams are both way down from where they were last year.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, while the Hoosiers will only be playing their 2nd game in 8 days. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Indiana Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2 

Despite being just 6-12 SU this season, the Washington Wizards are 11-7 ATS and have been an undervalued commodity this season.  And it’s worth noting they have played a road-heavy schedule with 11 road games compared to seven home games.   

The Wizards are back home here off a brutal four-game road trip at Denver, Phoenix, LA Lakers and LA Clippers.  It’s safe to say they are battle-tested.  And now I expect them to handle their business at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 121-125 loss at Orlando two weeks ago in their first meeting this season. 

The Magic have lost four of their last six with their only wins coming against Cleveland and Golden State.  Orlando is dealing with some injuries right now with Nikola Vucevic, Al-Farouq Aminu and Michael Carter-Williams all out tonight. 

The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards have won five straight home meetings with the Magic.  Washington is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with the Magic.  Orlando is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Take the Wizards Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -1 

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing their first true road game of the season tonight.  They are 7-0 and ranked 24th in the country, but their unbeaten season comes to an end at Ole Miss here.  The unranked Rebels are favored and for good reason. 

Ole Miss has a one-point loss at Memphis and an upset win over Penn State on a neutral.  The Rebels will be highly motivated for a win following a blowout loss to a very good Oklahoma State team.  This is a Rebels team that won 20 games last year that earned Kermit Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors.  A lot of talent returned from that team. 

Breiin Tyree (15.1 PPG) is an SEC Player of the Year candidate and returning starter.  Blake Hinson (12.3 PPG) is also a returning starter who missed the first four games of the season.  Now that he’s back, the Rebels should take off.  KJ Buffen (12.4 PPG) is shooting 54% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range.  This is a great 3-point shooting team with four of the top five scorers all shooting at least 37.5% from distance.  Tyree won’t continue to shoot as poorly from 3 as he has thus far. 

The Rebels are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Butler is 6-15 ATS in true road games over the last three seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Bulls/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +5.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight as road underdogs to the Sacramento Kings.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall.  But they are coming in on two days’ rest and will be primed for a big effort today against a Kings team that is very beatable. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Kings, who are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and starting to become overvalued because of it.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Denver Nuggets, which also makes them primed for a letdown here against the Bulls. 

Keep in mind during this 12-1 ATS run the Kings were underdogs in all but three games, and they were never favored by more than 3 points.  So they are now laying their biggest number since October 30th at home against the Hornets.  And they have been mostly dogs during this stretch because they are still missing De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.  They are far from full strength.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +3 

The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 29 points on the season, which is the sign of a team that would be closer to 6-5 than 9-2.  At least nine teams in the NFL have outscored their opponents by more than 29 points on the season. 

One of those teams is the Minnesota Vikings, who have outscored their opponents by a total of 84 points and are every bit as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Now the Seahawks’ luck will run out against one of the best teams in the NFL here in the Vikings.  I expect Minnesota to win this game outright. 

The Vikings have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Six of their eight wins this season have come by double-digits.  They once again have an elite defense that is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season. 

Kirk Cousins is having one of the best seasons of his career.  He is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with a 21-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 yards per attempt.  A big reason he has been so good is because the Vikings finally have a rushing attack with Dalvin Cook, who has 1,017 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.8 per carry. 

One of the biggest reasons I see the Seahawks as frauds is because they have an awful defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 370.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They also give up 23.9 points per game.  Now they will be without their best pass rusher in Jadeveon Clowney this week, making their job a whole lot tougher. 

The Vikings have two full weeks to prepare for the Seahawks coming off their bye week.  They want revenge on the Seahawks after losing five straight to them, including a one-point loss in the playoffs a few years back in Seattle after they missed a chip shot field goal for the win.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.4 points per game at home this season.  Bet the Vikings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

I love the situation for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  This is a home-and-home situation.  The Thunder just beat the Pelicans 109-104 at home on Friday.  Now these teams play in a rematch at New Orleans just two days later.  The Pelicans will be highly motivated for revenge in this one. 

The Thunder are just 1-7 on the road this season and giving up 110.4 points per game.  The Pelicans have played their best basketball at home and nearly upset the Lakers are 6.5-point home dogs in their last home game.  They should have no problem covering this short 2.5-point spread tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -10 

The Kansas City Chiefs own the Oakland Raiders and the AFC West in general.  The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raiders with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  It will be more of the same today with the Chiefs today as they win by double-digits over the Raiders with first place in the AFC West on the line. 

The Chiefs haven’t been as dominant as they were last year.  But it’s also true that they haven’t been healthy all season.  Patrick Mahomes has missed some time, and several of his weapons have missed games.  But now the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been all season.  And they’re going to be a scary team moving forward.  Their season-long stats aren’t as good as they are going to be from here on out. 

Andy Reid is one of the best head coaches of all-time off a bye.  He is 22-4 SU & 17-9 ATS off a bye and will obviously have his team ready to go with what’s at stake today.  He doesn’t need any motivational speeches with first place in the AFC West at stake. 

The Raiders are coming off a 3-34 road loss to the New York Jets last week.  It was their worst game of the season, and I’m definitely concerned about this team moving forward.  They only managed 208 total yards against a bad Jets defense.  Oakland’s leaky defense gave up 401 total yards to a bad Jets offense too.  This had been a poor Oakland defense all season giving up 25.8 points and 370.8 yards per game, including 30.3 points and 372.8 yards per game on the road. 

Oakland is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Raiders are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Kansas City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC West opponents.  Take the Chiefs Sunday. 

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47 

The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks.  They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week. 

Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore.  They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game.  Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season.  Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in. 

The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night.  They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards.  The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense.  I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week.  Look for the Cardinals to expose them too. 

I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach.  You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one.  And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray. 

Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games.  And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total.  After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals. 

Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons.  Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -2 

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country because they returned all five starters this year.  But those starters are clearly mediocre as the Wildcats are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games this season. 

Davidson has had some ugly performances to say the least.  They were upset as 10-point favorites in a 13-point loss at Charlotte.  They were upset by Wake Forest as 9-point favorites in a 12-point loss on a neutral.  And they lost by 10 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs. 

Temple is 5-1 this season and has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat both La Salle and USC, topping the Trojans as 9-point dogs.  Temple’s only loss this season came against one of the best teams in the country in Maryland as 9-point dogs in a 7-point loss on a neutral.  The Owls are coming off a 65-42 blowout win over Texas A&M on the road as well. 

Davidson is 2-9 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Temple is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 neutral site games.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Bet Temple Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3 

Sam Darnold started to talk about the playoffs after the Jets beat the Giants 34-27 three weeks ago.  Everyone laughed at him, and they’re still laughing because it’s probably not possible.  But the fact of the matter is he has delivered since making that statement.  And the Jets have the belief they can make the playoffs in that locker room, which is all that really matters. 

Darnold went on to lead the Jets to a 34-17 win at Washington and a 34-3 home win over Oakland last week.  I realize the competition hasn’t been great, but the Jets have scored 34 points on three straight NFL defenses.  And now they face the worst team in the NFL in the 0-11 Cincinnati Bengals.  I don’t see anything changing here. 

The Bengals give up 26.5 points and are dead last in total defense at 417.2 yards per game allowed.  Their offense ranks 31st in scoring at 14.3 points per game and they’ve been held to 17 points or fewer in six straight games coming in.  They are going back to Andy Dalton this week at quarterback, but it won’t matter. 

Dalton doesn’t have any weapons outside with AJ Green and John Ross sidelined.  And the Bengals' only hope is to run the football with Joe Mixon.  That certainly won’t be easy this week.  The Jets are 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.1 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.  Only one player has rushed for 100 yards against the Jets, and that was Zeke Elliott in Week 6, a game the Jets won. 

The Bengals are coming off a tough 10-16 loss to division rival Pittsburgh.  And they have another division rival in Cleveland on deck.  I don’t see them showing up at all this week as it will be hard for them to get motivated to face the Jets.  And even if they do, they aren’t good enough to hang with this hot Jets team playing their best football of the season. 

The Bengals have 13 straight losses since the end of last year.  They’ve also lost 18 of 19 overall, the worst stretch in franchise history.  Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - a cold team having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Bengals are 0-7 ATS in home games off a division loss over the last three seasons.  Take the Jets Sunday. 

15* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco +6 

The Baltimore Ravens couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are right now off five straight blowout wins and covers.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points to what I believe is neck-and-neck with Baltimore as the best team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.  It’s too much, and there’s a great chance this game is decided by one score either way. 

The Ravens got two non-offensive touchdowns against Seattle to start this streak.  Then they had a bye and caught New England in a good spot.  Then they faced an awful Cincinnati team before beating up on a bad Houston defense.  And last week they beat up on an overrated Rams team.  They will meet their match this week. 

The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in total defense in giving up just 248.0 yards per game while also allowing just 14.8 points per game.  Nothing has come easy against this San Francisco defense, which is loaded with first-round draft picks along the front seven and has the top-ranked pass defense in the league, giving up just 136.9 passing yards per game. 

The 49ers have been great offensively when George Kittle and Emanuel Sanders have been healthy.  They have scored 36 and 37 points in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Green Bay.  And Kittle just returned against the Packers last week and made a huge difference in their 37-8 win.  The 49ers held Aaron Rodgers and company to just 198 total yards on 65 plays, an average of 3.05 yards per play.  And it’s worth noting the Ravens lost starting center Matt Skura to a season-ending knee injury against the Rams last week.  Skura is the QB of the offensive line and makes all the calls. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team average 27 or more points pre game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Browns/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1 

The Cleveland Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now their schedule has lightened up and the Browns have won and covered three in a row.  They will prove that they are better than the Steelers finally this season by sweeping the season series. 

The Browns won 21-7 two weeks ago as 3-point home favorites.  They dominated and forced four turnovers in the win.  Obviously, the Steelers want revenge, but they don’t have the personnel to get it.  The Browns are far and away the better team in this matchup in 2019. 

The Steelers have a dreadful offense that has scored 17, 7 and 16 points the last three weeks.  They are going to Devlin Hodges over Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but it’s not an upgrade.  Hodges’ 24-17 win at the Chargers was extremely misleading.  He only averaged 6.6 per attempt and totaled 132 passing yards.  The Chargers gave that game away with turnovers and outgained the Steelers by 92 yards.  And Hodgers is being looked at as the savior last week in leading the 16-10 win over the Bengals after replacing Rudolph.  But it’s the 0-11 Bengals, who have lost 18 of their last 19 overall. 

The Browns have outgained four straight opponents and are a very good team if they don’t beat themselves.  They aren’t beating themselves as they have cleaned up the turnovers and penalties.  And we saw the same thing last year with the Browns finishing the season strong after a slow start.  They have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and their defense is good enough to shut down an awful Pitt offense again. 

A big reason this Pittsburgh offense has struggled and why they’re playing musical chairs at quarterback is because they don’t have their full plethora of weapons.  Both JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Conner aren’t expected to play this week.  Plus, center Maurkice Pouncey is serving the second of his two-game suspension following the Myles Garrett/Mason Rudolph incident.  Not having the QB of their offensive line is a big loss.  And the books almost never factor in the loss of a center to injury, even thought it’s one of the most important positions in the NFL. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - revenging a loss vs. opponent of 14 points or more, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Browns Sunday. 

20* Army/Hawaii CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Army +3 

Hawaii just clinched the MWC’s West Division with a 14-11 home win over San Diego State last week.  The Rainbow Warriors have nothing to play for, and now they’d rather focus their attention on the MWC Championship Game against Boise State next week.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they lay down today instead of expending the energy it takes to try and shut down a triple-option team like Army. 

Hawaii hasn’t had a bye since the beginning of October.  They will be playing for an 8th straight week here.  That’s all the more reason for them to not expend energy here, plus even if they wanted to they can’t have much left in the tank.  Meanwhile, Army is coming off a bye week and has another bye on deck before facing Navy.  They will be ‘all in’ here because they sit at 5-6 and need to win their final two games to make a bowl. 

Army is clearly fresh off the bye, but also because it won a couple laughers going into the bye.  The Black Knights won 63-7 over UMass and 47-6 over VMI in their two games preceding the bye.  And this is a great matchup for them as they rush for 303 yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Hawaii allows 188 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry on the season.  It’s strength vs. weakness here, so the situation and the matchup favor the Black Knights. 

Army is 8-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the past three seasons.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Hawaii.  The Black Knights are 7-1 ATS int heir last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Army Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +13.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 16-3 this season, but they have been struggling to cover these big spreads they are asked to lay night in and night out.  That has been the case here of late especially as the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Milwaukee only won 119-110 at Cleveland as 11.5-point favorites last night.  They only won 111-102 as 14.5-point home favorites over Atlanta the game before.  They only won 122-118 as 8.5-point home favorites over Utah, 137-129 as 14-point home favorites over Portland and 135-127 as 11-point favorites over Atlanta in their previous three games.  They did cover by one in a 14-point win over Detroit as a 13-point favorite in a 1-5 ATS stretch over their last six. 

Charlotte has rarely lost by this kind of margin.  In fact, in their last 12 games, the Hornets have only been beaten twice by more than 10 points.  They are coming off two straight upset wins and they certainly believe they can hang with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee is 36-59 ATS in its last 95 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Hornets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on zero days’ rest.  Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* Florida State/Purdue CBB No-Brainer on Florida State +1 

The Florida State Seminoles have the home-court advantage in this neutral site affair with the Purdue since it is played in Niceville, Florida.  The Seminoles are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming at Pitt by a final of 61-63.  They went on to beat Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs.  And yesterday they topped No. 17 Tennessee 60-57. 

The Purdue Boilermakers lost a lot of talent from the team that made the Elite 8 last year.  Carsen Edwards single-handedly got them to the Elite 8, but he’s now gone.  The Boilermakers were upset at home by Texas 66-70 as 6.5-point favorites and they lost by 10 at Marquette in a pick ‘em role.  They were fortunate to escape with a 59-56 win over VCU last night. 

I like the fact that FSU played the early game yesterday and got to watch the Purdue/VCU game for scouting reasons.  It also makes the Seminoles the more fresh team, though it’s never a problem with them because they are always so deep, and they once again have some great depth this year. 

FSU is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games overall.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +41 

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions.  They just lost a grueling 17-28 game at Ohio State with the Big Ten East title on the line.  After losing that game, the Nittany Lions could care less about beating Rutgers by any kind of margin this week.  And unless they are giving 100%, they aren’t going to cover this massive 41-point spread. 

Not to mention, Penn State QB Sean Clifford was knocked out of the Ohio State game with a leg injury and is questionable to play Saturday.  Look for the Nittany Lions to pull their starters in the second half of this game and to just try and get out of here with a win rather than looking to run up the score. 

Rutgers will be looking at this game like its Super Bowl.  And the Scarlet Knights have been more competitive here down the stretch.  They beat Liberty outright as 7.5-point dogs, they covered as 51.5-point dogs in a 21-56 loss to Ohio State, and they lost 27-0 to Michigan State last week.  They haven’t quit, and they will be trying to give Penn State all they can handle Saturday. 

Rutgers hasn’t lost by more than 39 to Penn State since joining the Big Ten in 2014.  They only lost 20-7 last year as 28.5-point dogs.  They covered as 31-point dogs in 2017 in a 35-6 loss.  They lost 39-0 in 2016 and 28-3 in 2015.  They covered as 3.5-point dogs in a 13-10 loss in 2014.  Don’t expect the Scarlet Knights to lose by 41-plus points for the first time against Penn State this week. 

Penn State has actually been outgained in six of its 11 games this season, so it is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate.  The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  James Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a loss as the coach of Penn State.  He hasn’t been good at getting his team to respond following a defeat.  And he certainly has his hands full getting his players to show up this week after losing to Ohio State last week.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +14.5 

The New Mexico State Aggies lost their first nine games of the season against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They schedule finally eased up, and they were able to pick up back-to-back wins over Incarnate Word 41-28 as 8-point favorites and UTEP 44-35 as 7-point favorites.  They have shown some fight here down the stretch, and they’ll certainly show up here against Liberty. 

This is quickly becoming a rivalry because these teams have played twice a year each of the last two years since they both don’t have a conference as Independents.  Each of the three meetings over the last two seasons have been decided by 8 points or less.  New Mexico State wants revenge from a 13-20 home loss to Liberty in a game they deserved to win, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  They outgained Liberty 396 to 337 in that contest. 

Liberty has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played the 127th schedule compared to the 96th schedule for New Mexico State.  And after finally facing some decent teams in BYU and Virginia, losing by 28 to Virginia last week, I just can’t see Liberty being all that motivated this week to beat NMSU for a second time.  They are already bowl eligible at 6-5 this season. 

Plays on road teams (New Mexico State) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are simply catching too many points here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday. 

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +9.5 

The Michigan Wolverines turned their season around in the second half against Penn State, coming back from a 21-0 deficit and coming a dropped pass away from sending that game to overtime.  They really deserved to win that game as they outgunned the Nittany Lions by 124 yards.  In fact, the Wolverines have outgained 10 of their 11 opponents this season.  I think they’re every bit as good as Ohio State right now, and it will show on the field Saturday. 

The Wolverines came back the next week after the Penn State loss and crushed a very good Notre Dame team 45-14 at home.  They outgained the Fighting Irish by 257 yards in the win, so there was nothing fluky about it.  They went on to beat Maryland 38-7 and Michigan State 44-10.  And last week, I actually faded Michigan and took Indiana thinking it was a sandwich spot.  It wasn’t, and the Wolverines remained focused and handled their business in a 39-14 win as 10-point favorites. 

Ohio State has been grossly overvalued here down the stretch after a great start to the season against a soft schedule.  The Buckeyes failed to cover as 52-point favorites in a 56-21 win at Rutgers.  And last week they found themselves fighting Penn State tooth and nail at home, pulling out the eventual 28-17l win as 20-point favorites. 

Ohio State QB Justin Fields suffered an ankle injury in that Penn State game that hampered him and will continue to slow him this week.  That’s a huge advantage for this Michigan defense as he won’t be the dual-threat he usually would be.  And stopping the run is the key to stopping Ohio State as Fields is suspect as a passer. 

The Wolverines have the clear answer for Ohio State’s rushing attack.  Michigan allows just 106 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  They are holding opponents to 68 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry less than their season averages.  They have one of the best run defenses in the country.  And while Michigan is almost fully healthy with only two players on the injury report, Ohio State has a plethora of injuries with 13 players on the injury report and a ton with a questionable tag. 

Michigan QB Shea Patterson has taken his game to the next level this season and is capable out out dueling Fields in this one.  He is completing 59.5% of his passes for 2,523 yards with a 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  And Patterson has been really good during the current four-game winning streak with all four wins by 25 points or more and the offense averaging 41.5 points per game  He has a 12-to-1 ratio in his last four games. 

Michigan wants this game like blood.  The Wolverines have lost seven straight in this series to Ohio State.  Jim Harbaugh was brought in here to beat Ohio State, and it’s time in Year 4.  I think this is the perfect spot to do so, and he finally has the team to get it done.  The game doesn’t mean as much for the Buckeyes, who clinched the Big Ten East division last year.  They could lose this game and still win the Big Ten title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota and make the four-team playoff.  A loss won’t keep them out.  This is Michigan’s Super Bowl. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan) - in a game involving two dominant teams who are outgaining their opponents by 1.2 or more yards per play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent rushing defensive that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry in all games as a head coach.  Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Michigan.  The Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -7.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are still playing to try and win C-USA’s East Division.  They need a win and a Florida Atlantic loss to Southern Miss this week to get in.  They have the tiebreaker over both FAU and Western Kentucky.  And it’s Senior Day, so they’ll be max motivated. 

The same cannot be said for Florida International.  They just clinched their 6th win and bowl eligibility last week.  They did so by beating big brother Miami outright as a 21-point underdog.  I think they will be partying all week and won’t care at all about this game.  It’s a massive letdown spot for the Golden Panthers. 

FIU is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 23 points per game.  They lost by 28 at Tulane, by 12 at LA Tech, by 33 at Middle Tennessee and by 30 at Florida Atlantic.  Marshall is 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to 10-2 Cincinnati. 

The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.  The Thundering Herd are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Marshall Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Creighton CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -6 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders blitzed out to a 5-0 start this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more.  But then they were upset by Iowa as 7-point favorites yesterday, and I think they are undervalued now today against Creighton as a result. 

There’s no question Texas Tech is the better team.  Creighton is 4-2 SU but 1-5 ATS this season.  They lost by 10 at Michigan and were embarrassed by 31 by San Diego State yesterday.  They also struggled to put away Cal Poly in a 16-point home win as 24.5-point favorites.  And they only beat North Florida by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They aren’t even in the same class at Texas Tech, and it will show on the scoreboard. 

Creighton is 8-18 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Texas Tech is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Red Raiders are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Texas Tech Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 220 

I think there’s great value with this UNDER tonight.  The Jazz and Grizzlies just met on November 15th with the Grizzlies winning 107-106 at home for 213 combined points.  These teams are now very familiar with one another and will be playing just two weeks later.  That favors the defenses. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of the last 43 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 43-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 220-point total. 

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Jazz last 33 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in Memphis.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego State -3 

The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  They are off to a 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with six wins by 13 points or more.  They also pulled the upset 76-71 at BYU as 4-point dogs. 

Yesterday, San Diego State blasted Creighton 83-52 as 2.5-point favorites.  That blowout afforded the Aztecs the ability to rest their starters late so they’ll still be fresh for Iowa today.  I think that’s a huge advantage and one that will help them cover this 3-point spread. 

Iowa pulled off a shocking 72-61 upset win as 7-point dogs over Texas Tech yesterday.  They had to play their starters all the way until the final buzzer because Texas Tech kept making runs at them.  And after beating the Red Raiders, the Hawkeyes are clearly getting more respect than they deserve.  Remember, Iowa lost 78-93 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites. 

The Aztecs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Roll with San Diego State Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5 

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation after these two teams played in Charlotte on Wednesday.  The Hornets won that game 102-101 in thrilling fashion.  Now the Pistons will want their revenge at home tonight and will clearly be the more motivated team.  I believe it leads to a blowout win in Detroit’s favor. 

The Pistons have been great at home here of late.  They beat the Hawks 128-103 as 6-point favorites and topped the Magic 103-88 as 5-point favorites in their two most recent home games.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season. 

The Hornets are just 3-7 on the road this season and getting outscored by 9.8 points per game.  In their last four road games, the Hornets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS losing by 17 at Miami, by 7 at Washington, by 10 at Brooklyn and by 36 at Toronto. 

The Hornets are 7-25 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three seasons.  The Hornets will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Pistons will be playing just their 7th game in 19 days.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

15* Tennessee/FSU CBB No-Brainer on Florida State -1 

For starters, Florida State will have the home-court advantage with this neutral site game being played in Niceville, FL.  And I simply believe the Seminoles are the better team and are favored for good reason despite being unranked and facing No. 17 Tennessee. 

The Vols are getting too much respect for what they did last year.  But they only brought back one starter from that team.  They are 5-0 this season, but it has come against an easy schedule with the five wins coming against UNC-Asheville, Murray State, Washington, Alabama State and UT-Chattanooga. 

Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming by two points at Pitt, 61-63.  The Seminoles went on to blow out Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs to show what they are capable of.  They also played UT-Chattanooga, beating them 89-53 at home while Tennessee only beat Chattanooga 58-46 at home.  That gives them a common opponent and shows that FSU is clearly the better team. 

Plays against neutral court underdogs (Tennessee) - after three straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Seminoles are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Florida State Friday. 

15* Iowa State/Seton Hall ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall -2.5 

Iowa State used a lot of energy in their 104-89 shootout win against a bad Alabama team yesterday.  Now the Cyclones will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and don’t have much of a bench.  They will be the more tired team in this matchup. 

That’s because Seton Hall made easy work of Southern Miss 81-56 yesterday and was allowed to rest its starters down the stretch.  This is clearly a very good Seton Hall team, taking both Michigan State (73-76) and Oregon (69-71) to the wire.  Oregon and Michigan State are two of the best teams in the country. 

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with one or fewer days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  Take Seton Hall Friday. 

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska +6 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are the single-most underrated 5-6 or worse team in the country.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after they burned through their money betting on them; the Huskers are just 2-9 ATS this season.  And I think we are ‘buying low’ on the Huskers, who were 7-point favorites over the Hawkeyes in this game entering the season.  Now they are 6-point underdogs on game day. 

Nebraska has actually seven of its last 10 opponents despite going 4-6 SU.  The only exceptions were a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota.  And Adrian Martinez hasn’t been healthy all season, but he is back to 100% now and playing well.  I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen from Nebraska the last two weeks. 

Indeed, the Huskers outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards but lost despite gaining 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense.  Then they went into Maryland and won 54-7 last week and outgained them by 325 yards.  The Huskers are getting their running game going, rushing for 273 yards on Wisconsin and 305 yards on Maryland. 

The fact that Nebraska has been running the football well of late and on the season is important because they will need to run on Iowa because the weather report is calling for some rain.  Nebraska is rushing for 207 yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season.  Iowa has the worst rushing attack it has had in years.  The Hawkeyes only average 132 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  And QB Nathan Stanley has taken a step back this year to really hurt his draft stock. 

Iowa just played Wisconsin a few weeks ago and only lost 22-24.  However, they had a huge comeback in the 4th quarter that made that game look closer than the final score.  The Hawkeyes were outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers.  Iowa went on to get lucky to beat Minnesota 23-19 the next week despite getting outgained by 141 yards by the Gophers.  And last week the Hawkeyes only outgained a bad Illinois team by 51 yards in a 19-10 home win as 15-point favorites. 

So, as you can see, Nebraska is the better team when you compare stats against common opponents.  Nebraska outgained Wisconsin while Iowa was outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers.  And Nebraska outgained Illinois by 391 yards while Iowa only outgained Illinois by 51 yards.  Iowa has a putrid offense that is averaging just 19.4 points per game in Big Ten play.  They can’t be trusted to lay this number on the road. 

While Iowa will be motivated for this rivalry game, Nebraska will clearly be the more motivated team.  Scott Frost wants to get his team to a bowl game in Year 2 and finish the season strong.  The Huskers also want revenge from a 28-31 road loss at Iowa as 8.5-point dogs.  Iowa won on a last-second field goal.  I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. 

Nebraska is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Huskers desperately want to end a four-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes in this series, and I think they get the job done at home this week.  Take Nebraska Friday. 

25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -10 

The Central Michigan Chippewas can clinch the MAC West title with a win Friday.  Western Michigan lost to Northern Illinois on Tuesday to allow the Chippewas to have this opportunity, and I expect them to take full advantage with a blowout win over Toledo Friday. 

Central Michigan has been underrated all season, and that’s evident with their 8-3 ATS record this year.  They have been the most dominant team in the MAC.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in MAC play this season, outgaining opponents by 150 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  They are averaging 509.3 yards per game in MAC play and giving up 359.4 yards per game. 

Not to mention, the Chippewas have two full weeks to get ready for Toledo after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Toledo played last week against Buffalo, and while they will have a few extra days of rest than normal they are still at a disadvantage. 

While I love the motivation for Central Michigan, I hate the motivational spot for Toledo.  The Rockets have already clinched a bowl with a 6-5 record this season.  And after losing at home to NIU 28-31, their hopes of winning the MAC West were crushed.  They went on to lose 30-49 at Buffalo last week in a game that wasn’t even as close as that final score showed.  Now it will be more of the same against Central Michigan. 

Toledo has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They are giving up 468.7 yards per game this season, including 464.9 yards per game in MAC play.  The Rockets have been dreadful on the road, going 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS while getting outscored by 15.6 points per game and outgained by 125 yards per game.  They are giving up a whopping 524.8 yards per game on the road this season. 

Conversely, Central Michigan is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 23.2 points per game and outgaining them by 251 yards per game.  They are averaging 550 yards per game of offense at home and only giving up 298.6 yards per game.  They beat Northern Illinois 48-10 in their last home game, the same NIU team that beat Toledo on the road and Western Michigan on the road each for he last two weeks. 

And perhaps the most important part about this handicap is that Toledo could be without its top two quarterbacks.  Mitchell Guadagni has missed the past five games and is unlikely to return.  And backup Eli Peters was knocked out of the Buffalo game last week and is questionable to play.  The good news is that even if one of them plays, I still love Central Michigan, and if they don’t play they have no chance of even being competitive. 

Toledo is 0-7 ATS after going over the total in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Central Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after scoring 42 points or more last game.  The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Chippewas.  Bet Central Michigan Friday. 

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -28 

The Buffalo Bulls are the far superior team in this matchup with Bowling Green.  So while I rarely lay this big of a number in any sport, I’m going to lay the number with the Bulls Friday.  They should win by more than four touchdowns against a Bowling Green team that looks like they’ve quit. 

Buffalo sits at 6-5 this season and playing some tremendous football down the stretch.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Akron 21-0 as 18-point road favorites, beat Central Michigan 43-20 as 2.5-point home favorites, won at Eastern Michigan 43-14 as 1.5-point favorites, and crushed Toledo 49-30 at home as 10-point favorites.  Their lone loss came at Kent State after they blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter in fluky fashion, giving up 24 points in the final eight minutes. 

Bowling Green lost at Miami Ohio 3-44 two weeks ago and came back to lose 24-66 at home to Ohio last week.  The Falcons sit at 3-8 on the season and have clearly quit.  In fact, seven of those eight losses came by 28 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out by big margins.  And their three wins have come against Morgan State, Akron and Toledo. 

The key with Bowling Green is that they have been respectable at home, but atrocious on the road.  The Falcons are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by a whopping 45.2 points per game.  They are scoring just 6.6 points per game on 253.8 yards per game on the highway, and allowing 51.8 points per game and 568.6 yards per game. 

Buffalo beat Bowling Green 44-14 on the road last season as 16-point favorites.  They gained 483 yards and only allowed 205 yards, outgaining the Falcons by 278 yards.  Expect more of the same at Buffalo this time around as the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to Ohio by a single point. 

The Falcons are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  Bowling Green is 1-9 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Buffalo Friday. 

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7 

The Atlanta Falcons are being left for dead now after losing 22-35 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  It’s the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on them and trust that they’ll get back to playing the same kind of football they were the two weeks before losing to the Bucs. 

We saw the Falcons come out of their bye week and crush the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road underdogs.  Then we saw them back it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs to prove it was no fluke.  I think off those two huge upset road wins, the Falcons simply fell flat last week in the role of the favorite against a Bucs team that had lost five of their previous six coming in. 

Now, back at home on Thanksgiving Day and up against their biggest rivals, the Falcons will be giving a max effort tonight.  And when they are dialed in and focused, they are capable of beating anyone in the NFL as we’ve seen.  Look for them to give the Saints a run for their money tonight. 

The Saints are overvalued due to their 9-2 record this season.  They have simply been the kings of winning close games as the Saints are 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  And this game is likely to decided by a touchdown or less as well, meaning that we are getting great value on the Falcons here as 7-point home dogs. 

Atlanta really missed Devonta Freeman at running back last week against the Bucs.  They couldn’t get anything going on the ground without him, and he’s also a huge threat in the passing game.  The Falcons were able to rush for 143 yards the last time they faced the Saints and that took a lot of pressure off Matt Ryan.  Look for them to get back to running the ball this week after attempting just 19 rushes last week compared to 34 in that win over the Saints. 

New Orleans was lucky to escape with a 34-31 win over the Panthers last week.  The Panthers couldn’t punch in first and goal in the final minutes, and then missed a chip shot field goal.  The Saints went down and kicked a game-winner as time expired.  They only outgained the Panthers by 67 yards.  And in their previous two games, they were outgained by 7 yards by the Falcons and by 6 yards by the Bucs. 

Series history of games played at Atlanta shows that there’s a ton of value on the Falcons +7.  Indeed, the Saints haven’t won by more than 6 points over the Falcons in Atlanta since 2007.  That’s 11 meetings and zero wins for the Saints by more than 6 points.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7-point spread. 

Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  And it’s a huge advantage for the Falcons to be staying at home after playing a home game last week so there’s no travel for them on this short week.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -6.5 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are back at it this season in being among the best teams in the country after finishing as runners-up to Virginia last year for the national title.  They have come back hungry this season to prove that the runs to the Elite 8 and the National Championship Game the past two years were no fluke. 

Indeed, the Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  They are once again elite defensively, holding opponents to 60.2 points per game and nearly 15 points per game less than their season averages.  Offensively, they are scoring 87.0 points per game and averaging 11.3 points per game more than their opponents normally allow. 

Iowa is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have played all five games at home thus far against some suspect competition.  Their four wins have come against SIU Edwardsville, Oral Roberts, North Florida and Cal Poly.  And they were upset in a 78-93 home loss to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  The Hawkeyes are giving up 70.8 points per game this season, only holding opponents to 1.4 points per game less than their season averages.  They are once again a soft defensive team this year. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hawkeyes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday. 

20* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +2.5 

The Ole Miss Rebels somehow were able to get a bye week before playing their biggest game of the season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs had to play Saturday against Abilene Christian and now will be on a short week.  That edge in rest and preparation is a huge advantage for the Rebels this week. 

Ole Miss has been grossly undervalued in the entire second half of the season.  The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have exceeded expectations despite playing a brutal schedule.  And ever since dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee took over, this Ole Miss offense has flourished.  Plumlee has rushed for 989 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 7.3 per carry against mostly very good defenses.   

The Rebels have had their best offensive performance last time out against a very good LSU defense.  The managed 614 total yards and 37 points against LSU.  They had 606 total yards against New Mexico State the game before and covered as 28-point favorites in a 41-3 win.  They only lost 14-20 at Auburn as 17-point dogs.  They deserved to beat Texas A&M but lost 17-24 at home despite outgaining them by 65 yards.  They gave Missouri a battle in a 27-38 road loss.  They crushed Vanderbilt 31-6 as 7-point home favorites.  And they were only outgained by 98 yards at Alabama and put up 31 points and 476 total yards on their defense.

This is going to be Ole Miss’ Super Bowl.  They won’t be going to a bowl game at 4-7 this season.  But they have a chance to knock Mississippi State (5-6) out of a bowl game.  The Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season as they are just 4-7 ATS with their only covers coming in wins over Southern Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas and Abilene Christian.  They really haven’t beaten anyone good. 

These teams have five common opponents this season.  Ole Miss is 1-4 SU & 4-1 ATS against them while only getting outscored by 9.6 points per game and outgained by 0.8 yards per play.  Mississippi State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against those same five opponents, getting outscored by 15.2 points per game and outgained by 1.3 yards per play.  These common opponent stats show Ole Miss is the better team, and we’re getting them as an underdog in a favorable rest spot off the bye. 

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Mississippi State) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent that gained 5.5 or more yards per attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.  Mississippi State is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Take Ole Miss Thursday. 

15* Bears/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +4.5 

I realize the Detroit Lions could be down to third-string quarterback David Blough if Jeff Driskel is unable to go.  And while I liked Blough at Purdue and believe he looked pretty solid in the preseason, this is more of a play against Chicago than a play on Detroit than anything. 

This line has moved from Detroit -1.5 all the way to Chicago -4.5, which is a 6-point adjustment.  I’d understand that adjustment if it was from Stafford to Driskel, but not from Driskel to possibly Blough.  This is an overcorrection, and the value is clearly on the Lions at home.  The books are clearly going to need the Lions, and I like being on the books’ side in this situation. 

The fact of the matter is the Bears still have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They are scoring 17.1 points per game and averaging 269.3 yards per game on the season.  They have scored 20 or fewer points in five straight games coming in.  You just can’t trust the Bears to lay this many points with their dreadful offense. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Lions, who were upset by the Redskins last week as 4-point road favorites.  But that was a very misleading final as the Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards but gave the game away with four turnovers.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Lions after they just lost to the dreadful Redskins, but nine times out of 10 with their stats they would have won that game. 

In fact, the Lions have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, including in all three of their road games against the Raiders, Bears and Redskins.  They outgained the Giants at home and beat them, and took the Cowboys to the wire in a 27-35 loss in the only game they were outgained. 

Four weeks ago, the Lions played in Chicago with Driskel at quarterback and lost 13-20.  But that was a hugely misleading final.  They outgained the Bears by 131 yards in that game.  They held Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s offense to just 216 yards while gaining 357 yards themselves.  They clearly should have won that game.  They were 6-point road dogs in that contest, and now they are 4.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  The line should be closer to PK when you adjust for home-field advantage. 

A whopping 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series were decided by one score.  And this game is likely to go down to the wire as well, so getting +4.5 points is a nice value.  And keep in mind the Bears are just 5-6 this season with only two of their wins coming by more than one score.  Plus, 10 of Detroit’s 11 games this season have been decided by one score, so they are much better than their 3-7-1 record would indicate. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Chicago) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1983.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with the Lions Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got back Damian Lillard from injury.  They promptly went on the road and crushed the Bulls 117-94 as 1-point favorites.  Now they are back home following a tough six-game road trip and in need of wins. 

The Blazers should be able to handle their business against a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team that has played four straight grueling nail biters.  They lost three straight to the Clippers and Lakers (twice) before barely escaping with a 100-97 win at Golden State on Monday.  They’ll now be playing their 4th road game in their last five contests. 

The Blazers own the Thunder, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  And this is a Thunder team that isn’t nearly as good as the one they’ve been up against over the past few seasons.  They no longer have Russell Westbrook and Paul George. 

Portland is 33-16-3 ATS in its last 52 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Oklahoma City is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

20* Seton Hall/Oregon ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oregon -1 

The Oregon Ducks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and ranked No. 11 in the country for good reason.  They have won all five games by 8 points or more and their schedule has not been easy as they’ve played Fresno State (won by 14), Boise State (won by 31), Memphis (won by 8) and Houston (won by 12). 

Seton Hall is also off to a good start this season at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  Their narrow home loss to Michigan State doesn’t look so good now after Michigan State was just upset as 13.5-point favorites against Virginia Tech and barely beat Georgia.  Seton Hall is mostly a one-man show with Myles Powell and the Ducks’ elite defense will be prepared to stop him. 

Oregon is giving up 63.8 points per game and 36.1% shooting.  That’s impressive when you consider they have faced some great offensive teams that average 80.1 points per game on the season.  They are holding their opponents to 16.3 points per game less than their season averages. 

Oregon is 9-0 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Ducks are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seton Hall is 0-4 ATS in its last four games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Oregon Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State +1 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 6-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

Wichita State crushed South Carolina 70-47 yesterday behind another dominant defensive performance.  They held the Gamecocks to 32.1% shooting and have now held all six of their opponents to 39.3% or less.  They are giving up just 56.2 points per game and 35.9% shooting on the season, holding opponents to 15.1 points per game less than their season averages. 

West Virginia is 5-0 but just 2-3 ATS.  They only beat Northern Colorado by 8 and Akron by 10 at home.  They were fortunate to make this title game because they had a 15-point comeback win over Northern Iowa yesterday and took the lead in the final seconds on an And-1 following a bogus flagrant foul.  They scored 5 points with the clock stopped, and it was the difference in the game.  They won’t be so fortunate against Wichita State today. 

The Shockers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less.  Wichita State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games.  Roll with Wichita State Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

The Indiana Pacers have been flying under the radar over the past month.  They are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming to Houston, Milwaukee and Charlotte (by 2).  They are getting no respect at home tonight as only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz. 

The Pacers are as healthy as they’ve been all season as they have everyone but Victor Oladipo healthy now.  It’s a big reason why they are playing so well.  And the Pacers will certainly have fresh legs as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days. 

Indiana has had Utah’s number in recent seasons.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 33 at Utah and by 27 at home against the Jazz in their two meetings last year. 

Plays against underdogs (Utah) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +1 

The Northern Iowa Panthers are 6-1 this season and have their best team in years.  They closed last season very strong and have welcomed back four starters this season and a ton of talent.  If not for a blown 15-point lead against West Virginia yesterday and a bogus flagrant foul call late, they’d be 7-0. 

Look for the Panthers to come back today and beat a very bad South Carolina team.  South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG). 

South Carolina is 4-2 this season, but they were upset 70-78 at home by Boston U as 15.5-point favorites.  And they barely beat Gardner Webb by 5 as 15-point favorites before getting crushed 47-70 by Wichita State yesterday.  I was on Wichita State yesterday, and I’ll fade the Gamecocks again today. 

Northern Iowa is 34-11 ATS in its last 45 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Gamecocks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. 

15* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV ANNIIHILATOR on Dallas +2.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.  And it’s not like they are beating up on cupcakes as they topped the defending champion Raptors 110-102 at home and went on the road and upset the Rockets 137-123 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Now, the Mavericks will host one of the favorites to win the title in the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think they’ll be up to the challenge.  The Clippers have also won five straight, but they’ve been much less impressive with wins by 2, 3 and 3 points.  And all five wins came at home. 

The Clippers are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season where they are giving up 119.2 points per game.  They have benefited from a very easy home-heavy schedule with 12 games at home compared to just five on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mavericks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -3 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 5-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG).  The Gamecocks are off to a 4-1 start this season against. Very soft schedule with five home against against suspect competition.   

The Gamecocks lost to Boston U 70-78 at home as 15.5-point favorites and didn’t respond well in their next game, only beating Gardner Webb 74-69 as 15-point favorites.  That gives Wichita State a common opponent as they also played Gardner Webb, crushing them 74-52 as 15.5-point home favorites. 

The Shockers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Wichita State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  South Carolina is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +28 

The Akron Zips are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS this season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and we are getting them at a huge discount this week.  We’re getting the Zips as four-touchdown home underdogs on Senior Night in a game I know they are going to be max motivated to get their first win of the year. 

I cashed in Akron last week as 31.5-point underdogs at Miami (Ohio).  They only lost that game 17-20 and had the ball with a chance to win late in the fourth quarter.  That’s a Miami (Ohio) team that will be going to the MAC Championship. 

Ohio has been overrated all season because they were a popular pick to win the MAC this year.  The Bobcats are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  They have a good quarterback in Nathan Rourke, but the rest of their team has a lot of problems. 

Akron actually has the better defense in this matchup.  The Zips are giving up 396.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on the season.  Ohio is allowing 431.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the year.  I don’t think the Bobcats should be favored by four touchdowns on the road with the worse defense. 

Akron’s offense has not been good, obviously, but they have been better with QB Kato Nelson under center.  He has 11 touchdowns against six interceptions and is a dual-threat who can escape pressure.  This offense has been a lot more effective in the games he didn’t miss with injury. 

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  The lone exception was last year with a very good Ohio team winning 49-28 at home against Akron as 24-point favorites.  Now the Bobcats are favored by 28 on the road this time around and they aren’t nearly as good as they were last year. 

Ohio is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Bobcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 50 points or more in their previous game.  Frank Solich is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of Ohio.  Their game against Bowling Green was much closer than the final score showed last week, so we’re getting extra line value here because of it.  Take Akron Tuesday. 

15* Stanford/Oklahoma ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +5 

Head coach Jarod Haase clearly has the best team he has had at Stanford as he enters his fourth year with the program.  The Cardinal returned three starters this year and came away with a tremendous recruiting class.  Things are looking up for Stanford. 

Indeed, the Cardinal are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with all six wins coming by 11 points or more.  They have two common opponents with Oklahoma this season, which would lead me to believe that Stanford is the better team and shouldn’t be catching points here. 

Oklahoma is also 5-0, but failed to cover the spread against the same two teams that Stanford played.  They beat William & Mary 75-70, while Stanford beat W&M 81-50.  They beat Maryland East Shore by 27, and Stanford beat Maryland East Shore by 21.  So Stanford has outscored those two teams by an average of 26.0 points per game, while Oklahoma has only outscored them by 16.0 points per game. 

Stanford is shooting 43% from 3-point range this season, while Oklahoma is only shooting 30.2%.  The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games making 50% of their 3-point shots or better.  Take Stanford Monday. 

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5 

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year.  Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs.  Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good. 

The results cannot even be debated.  Roman is the dual-threat QB guru.  The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game.  Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt.  He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award. 

The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season.  They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games.  But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since.  However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week.  Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season.  And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches. 

I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses.  The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks.  The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks.  This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late.  I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses. 

The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game.  Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  The only key player they are missing now is Reggie Jackson.  They should be a good bet in the short term because they are undervalued now after a 5-11 SU & 5-9-2 ATS start this season. 

Injuries have taken their toll on the Orlando Magic.  They are playing without arguably their two best players in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, and they are also without PG Michael Carter-Williams.  They lost by 16 in Toronto and by 5 in Indiana in their last two games coming in.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Pacers until Gordon and Vucevic return. 

The Magic are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season.  The Pistons are 37-13 SU & 28-18-4 ATS in their last 50 home meetings with the Magic.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take the Pistons Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 

I like the value we are getting on the Memphis Grizzlies today.  The Pacers would have to win by double-digits to beat us, and I don’t see that happening.  The Pacers aren’t a good enough team to be laying double-digits to almost anyone. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Indiana, which has won nine of its last 12 games coming in.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight coming in.  But they barely lost 108-109 to the Lakers as 8-point dogs last time out.  And now the Grizzlies will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. 

Plays on road underdogs (Memphis) - off three or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 81-46 (63.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Grizzlies are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this year with their only loss coming on the road at Xavier in overtime.  Their four wins have all come by 15 points or more. 

The Tigers returned three starters this season and added in some great recruits.  Their three returning starters are all having solid seasons in Mark Smith (13.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG this year), Jeremiah Tilmon (11.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Javon Pickett (5.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG).  Dru Smith (11.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) is a transfer from Evansville, and Xavier Pinson (9.2 PPG, 3.8 APG) has taken his game to the next level after coming off the bench last year. 

Butler is coming off a 16-17 season and it’s clear head coach LaVall Jordan is falling short of expectations.  The Bulldogs only returned two starters this year and one is Aaron Thompson (6.3 PPG, 4.3 APG last year).  The Bulldogs are 5-0 but it has come against an easy schedule with five home games. 

This is technically a neutral site game, but it won’t be neutral at all.  It will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO and the Tigers will have a huge home-court edge.  Butler is 3-16 ATS in road games off a home game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in road games off two or more straight wins over the last three years.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Bet Missouri Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -3 

The San Francisco 49ers are among the top three teams in the NFL in my opinion.  They are neck and neck with the Patriots and Ravens, and the numbers show it.  The 49ers are 8-2 with a +140 point differential, and the Ravens are 8-2 with a +145 differential and the Patriots are 9-1 with a +179 differential.  Fourth place is Minnesota at +84, and 5th place is Green Bay at +45. 

As you can see, the top three teams are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else.  And this number of 49ers -3 is basically saying these are equal teams when giving the 49ers 3 points for home-field advantage.  And they’re not even close to equal.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by 140 points this season, while the Packers have only outscored theirs by 45.  The Packers have simply been fortunate in close games. 

The key stat here is the 49ers are far and away the better defensive team.  The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 253.0 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in scoring defense at 15.5 points per game allowed.  The Packers are 28th in total defense, giving up 384.7 yards per game.  Only the Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals and Bengals have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company. 

Another big key is the 49ers get George Kittle back this week.  There’s a reason they struggled with the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two games.  Being division opponents definitely is one reason, but the other is the 49ers were without Kittle.  He is worth more to the point spread than any non-QB in the NFL.  He set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end last year and is far and away Jimmy G’s favorite target.  The 49ers in general are more healthy than they were for those two games against the Seahawks and Cardinals. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that’s a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Aaron Rodgers will struggle against the best defense he’s seen yet this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5 

The Washington Wizards continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites against the injury-ravaged Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Wizards are 10-3 ATS this season and have been one of the best covering teams in the league. 

The Wizards come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Boston as 7.5-point dogs and by 4 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  They beat Minnesota by 21 on the road as 5.5-point dogs, topped the Spurs by 6 at home as 2-point dogs and covered in a 7-point win over the Hornets as 6-point home favorites. 

The Kings are coming off a bad 19-point loss at Brooklyn and things are going to get worse before they get better due to their injuries.  They are playing without De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trevor Ariza right now. 

The Wizards are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Kings.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Wizards Sunday. 

15* Cowboys/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas +6 

The Dallas Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 444.6 yards per game on the season as Dak Prescott is having an MVP year, and Zeke Elliott is one of the best backs in the NFL.  The Cowboys will test the Patriots’ defense like they haven’t been tested yet this year. 

Tom Brady is dealing with an elbow injury that saw him wind up on the injury report this week.  And Brady is going to be without two receivers in Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett.  This Patriots offense has been struggling due to a lack of weapons, plus Brady finally showing his age.  This is a lot of points for the Patriots to have to lay with an offense as lackluster as theirs. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the second half of the season are 29-10 (74.4%) ATS over the last five years. 

The Cowboys are 6-4 on the season with three of their losses coming by 2, 2 and 4 points.  They have only been beaten once by more than 6 points in their 10 games this season.  The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Jason Garrett is 17-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 12-4 ATS in road games off a road game as the coach of the Cowboys.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans got hot in the 2nd half of the season last year and they’re doing it again this year.  They have won three of their last four behind the great play of Ryan Tannehill.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt while being a huge upgrade over Marcus Mariota. 

The Titans pulled off the huge 35-32 upset win over the Chiefs two weeks ago at home.  Now they are coming off a bye week and ready to keep their momentum going as they are just one game back of first place in the AFC South.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way now. 

The Jaguars are reeling after back-to-back blowout losses to Houston by 23 and Indianapolis by 20.  They could not stop the run against either team.  They gave up 216 rushing yards to the Texans and 264 to the Colts.  That’s bad news for the Jaguars having to face Derrick Henry this week. 

The Titans rushed for 225 yards on the Chiefs led by 188 and two scores from Henry.  This is the time of year when Henry came on strong last season, and he’s poised to do it against in 2019.  The Titans also want revenge from a 20-7 road loss to the Jaguars in their first meeting this season.  The Titans actually outgained the Jaguars by 48 yards in that game.  And that was back when Mariota was still starting and Jalen Ramsey was actually playing for the Jaguars.  These are two completely different teams now. 

Tennessee is still 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Jacksonville.  The Titans have rushed for an average of 160 yards per game in those five meetings.  And I expect them to top 200 rushing yards in this game with Tannehill also continuing his great play.  The Titans are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Jaguars.  Bet the Titans Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +6.5 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production.  The Rams are off to a 4-1 start this season with a win over Alabama and their only loss coming to a Top 10 Maryland team on the road. 

LSU lost a couple players to the NBA and isn’t nearly as good as it was last year.  The Tigers are 3-2 this season with losses to the two best teams they’ve faced in VCU and Utah State.  LSU struggled to put away Bowling Green by 9 at home as 13-point favorites and Nicholls State by 10 at home as 21-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 6.5 on a neutral over Rhode Island today. 

The Tigers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  LSU is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Rhode Island is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with Rhode Island Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +10 

The Carolina Panthers are in do-or-die mode now.  They are 5-5 on the season and needing a win to stay in the playoff race.  I know I’m going to get a big effort from the Panthers today with their season on the line and playing a division rival.  I love getting double-digits with the Panthers in this spot. 

This is the perfect week to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers.  They are coming off a 3-29 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons.  But that was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 2 yards.  Conversely, it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints, who are coming off a 34-17 blowout win over the Bucs.  But that was also a misleading final because the Saints were outgained by 6 yards.  The Bucs were only down 10 and Jameis Winston threw a pick-6 in the final minutes to make the score worse than it was.  We are getting line value now because of those two misleading finals. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New Orleans) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-11 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS int he last 10 meetings in this series.  Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 trips to New Orleans.  Take the Panthers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +6.5 

The New York Giants are coming off their bye week.  They are looking to finish the season strong to build for next year.  They already have their QB of the future, so they aren’t looking to tank.  And that’s one of the biggest misconceptions about the NFL today is that teams tank.  Players aren’t looking to lose their jobs by poor performance.  They show up every Sunday. 

I like the fact that Mitch Trubisky is starting over Chase Daniel.  It helps our bet here.  Trubisky is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.  The Bears are scoring just 16.9 points per game on the season.  They are averaging 263 yards per game as well.  They can’t be trusted to lay a number like this to many teams in the NFL, especially a Giants team coming off their bye. 

Jones has a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last three games overall.  And I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Giants, who have lost six straight coming in.  We saw the Falcons respond from their bye at 1-7 and dominate their two games out of the bye.  I’m not saying the Giants will be as dominant, but they will put their best foot forward this week off their bye. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - off five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1983.  Teams on extended losing streaks are consistently undervalued this late in the seasons.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass.  New York is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +14 

We’ve made a lot of money fading Fresno State this year, and we’ll continue to do so tonight.  The Bulldogs came into the season way overvalued due to being the best covering team in the nation the previous two years.  But they only returned eight starters and it was a clear rebuilding year, yet the Bulldogs have been priced like the team they were the previous two seasons.  And it continues to be the case week after week. 

Fresno State is just 4-6 SU & 3-6-1 ATS this season.  Three of their four wins came by 14 points or less, and yet they are laying 14 points here to a Nevada team that is better than all four teams they’ve beaten outside of Hawaii, which they only beat on a last-second field goal.  Fresno has a win over Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, a win over New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites and a win over UNLV as 16.5-point favorites. 

Plus, Nevada is a 6-4 team that is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Wolf Pack have done a good job of turning their season around by winning and covering against New Mexico at home and pulling the 17-13 upset at San Diego State as 17.5-point dogs in their last two games coming in.  Now they carry that momentum into Fresno State this weekend. 

Fresno State has been outgained in five of its last six games.  The only exception was the 75 yards they outgained UNLV by in a very misleading 56-27 win.  They were outgained by 153 yards in a 24-43 loss at Air Force, by 112 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites, by 41 yards in their 3-point win over Hawaii, by 106 yards in their 35-37 upset home loss to Utah State and by 219 yards in their 7-17 loss at San Diego State last week. 

Fresno State had one of the best defenses in the country last year, but that has been far from the case this year.  The Bulldogs are giving up 33.8 points and 473.3 yards per game in Mountain West play this season.  This is a pretty bad conference, and they just gave up 425 yards to a bad San Diego State offense last week.  They had allowed 500-plus yards in three straight games prior to that SDSU game as well.  The back door will always be open for Nevada if needed, but I don’t think it will be needed.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy finally and are starting to play their best basketball of the season as a result.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and they should not be catching 7.5 points to the Utah Jazz given the awful spot for Utah. 

Indeed, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing some late game heroics to beat a bad Golden State team 113-109 as 16-point favorites last night.  The Jazz won’t have much left in the tank for the Pelicans, who play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and will test a Jazz team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pelicans pulled the upset in each of their last two trips to Utah, and they haven’t lost by more than 8 points in any of their last six trips to Salt Lake City. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an ugly blowout home loss to the Golden State Warriors, failing to cover the spread by 25.5 points.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies have had three days off to stew over that loss, and now they’ll be fresh, motivated and ready to go with Lebron James and company coming to town tonight.  They will certainly be up for this game, and it’s understandable they thought they could just show up and beat the Warriors. 

The Lakers are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a grueling, 130-127 shootout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to Memphis and will be playing on tired legs.  The Lakers are already overvalued after winning 13 of their last 14 games overall, and we’ll gladly ’sell high’ on them in this flat spot. 

Plays on home underdogs (Memphis) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or Moree, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are a complete dumpster fire.  They have gone 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are now a league-worst 2-13-1 ATS on the season.  It’s not going to get any better for them tonight. 

The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They lost 104-115 on the road to the 76ers last night and will be playing their 4th straight road game.  Simply put, the Spurs are running on fumes right now. 

The Knicks have finally gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  The Knicks are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Mavericks as 7.5-point home dogs and blew out the Cavs by 18 as 5.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by a single point to the Hornets, and they gave Philadelphia a battle on the road in a 104-109 road loss as 13-point dogs last time out.   

Now the Knicks come in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Spurs will have nothing left in the tank and will lose their 9th straight game tonight.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford -1.5 

Stanford sits at 4-6 on the season.  The Cardinal need two more wins to get to a bowl game.  That’s important to them because they have a 10-year bowl streak alive and haven’t missed a bowl since the 2008 season.  And they certainly don’t want their season to come to an end at the hands of their biggest rival in Cal. 

Stanford is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with California.  And now the Cardinal just have to win this game at home to cover as only 1.5-point favorites.  I believe this is a gift from oddsmakers because despite having a down year, Stanford is still better than Cal this season. 

Injuries have hurt the Cardinal this season, but they have found their QB moving forward in Davis Mills.  He threw for a school-record 504 yards against Washington State last week.  He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,394 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season and is averaging 8.7 per attempt.  He has actually been better than starter KJ Costello, and certainly better than their third-stringer, who was forced into action earlier this season.   

Mills led the 23-13 win over Washington, and he also led the win at Oregon State.  He just made his first start last week since that win over Washington back on September 5th.  I think the Cardinal’s record would be better if he started every game this year.  Cal just gave up 406 passing yards last week in a 17-41 loss to USC a week after giving up 407 passing yards to Washington State.  It’s clear you can throw on this Cal defense, and Mills will exploit it. 

Cal starting QB Chase Garbers just hasn’t been able to stay healthy, either.  He was knocked out of the loss to USC last week with a shoulder injury, and he’s questionable to play this week.  Backup Devin Monster has been awful in his place, completing just 50.8% of his passes with a 5-to-5 TD/INT ratio and 5.8 per attempt.  Garbers is at 57.6% with an 8-to-2 ratio and 7.9 per attempt, so it’s a big downgrade if Modster gets the start. 

This is a Cal offense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Bears only average 18.9 points and 304.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.7 points and 268.7 yards per game on the road.  The Bears are 2-5 in conference play and scoring just 15.9 points per game while averaging 265.4 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  That’s another reason they shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  Roll with Stanford Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -4.5 

Despite having a disastrous season up to this point, the Nebraska Cornhuskers sit at 4-6 on the season and still within reach of a bowl game.  You can bet Scott Frost doesn’t want the embarrassment of missing out on a bowl again, and he’ll have his players ready to go Saturday in Maryland. 

Conversely, Maryland just suffered its seventh loss of the season and sits at 3-7 on the year.  The Terrapins know they won’t be going to a bowl game, and I question their motivation.  This team has rarely even been competitive in Big Ten play this season.  The Terrapins are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten action, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game.  They are a disaster right now, and head coach Mike Locksley is in trouble. 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska, which is 1-9 ATS in its 10 games this season while burning the betting public week after week.  They want nothing to do with this team now.  But it’s pretty easy to see the Huskers are better than their 4-6 record as they have continually blown lead after lead and cover after cover in the second half of games this season.  I don’t expect this game to even be close to give them a chance to blow it. 

Nebraska has actually outgained six of its last nine opponents with the only exceptions being a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota.  They actually outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards last week despite losing 21-37.  Their offense racked up 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense with 273 rushing and 220 passing.  Adrian Martinez is back to 100% healthy, and this offense should continue to flourish the final two weeks of the season. 

Maryland’s offense has been held to just 17.3 points and 283.7 yards per game in conference play this season, including 10.3 points and 194.0 yards per game in their last three.  I just don’t think they can be trusted to score at all and keep up with Nebraska’s high-powered offense.  Not to mention, the Terrapins are giving up 43.3 points and 504.9 yards per game in Big Ten play.  With those numbers, you can see we are getting Nebraska at a discount this week. 

The Huskers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Terrapins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games off a bye week.  Maryland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven November games.  I’m not concerned about Maryland coming off a bye because their season is over and they aren’t excited at all about this game.  Nebraska just had a bye prior to Wisconsin and will still be fresh and ready to go.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss -3.5 

I believe Southern Miss is a better team than Western Kentucky this year.  But that’s only part of the handicap.  A big part of the handicap is that Southern Miss is still alive for a Conference USA title, while Western Kentucky is not.  And thus the Golden Eagles have the motivational advantage coming into this one. 

Southern Miss is tied for first place in the C-USA West with LA Tech at 5-1 within the conference.  But the Golden Eagles lost to LA Tech, so they don’t hold the tiebreaker.  However, they got a huge break when LA Tech had its QB and Top WR suspended last week and this week.  After losing to Marshall badly last week, LA Tech now travels to face UAB this week and is nearly a 7-point underdog.  Chances are LA Tech loses that game, meaning a win for Southern Miss would put them in first place in the C-USA West. 

Western Kentucky is 4-2 within the conference.  They trail both Marshall (5-1) and Florida Atlantic (5-1).  The problem is that WKU lost to both of those teams, thus they are essentially two games back in the division.  They essentially have no chance of winning C-USA East now and thus don’t have much to play for.  They are already bowl eligible, which is a nice accomplishment in itself after what this program has gone through the last few seasons. 

Southern Miss is the real deal this season.  It is 7-3 this year with its only losses all coming on the road to Alabama, Mississippi State and LA Tech.  This despite facing a brutal schedule with only five home games this season compared to seven road games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 24.7 points per game and outgaining them by 181 yards per game. 

Western Kentucky is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and upsetting Arkansas last time out on the road.  But against the two best teams they have faced in C-USA, they lost on the road to Marshall and at home to FAU by 11.  All of their wins have come against suspect competition, and they also lost to Central Arkansas. 

The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.  Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS in its last eight November games.  And these teams have one common opponent in UAB.  WKU beat UAB 20-13 at home, while Southern Miss crushed UAB 37-2 at home.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +10 

This is the ultimate sandwich spot for the Michigan Wolverines.  They are coming off a huge win over their second-biggest rival in Michigan State.  And next week they play their biggest rival in Ohio State.  This is the game that they are likely to come out flat in as they won’t be up emotionally to face Indiana at all. 

But the Hoosiers are no longer the easy pushovers they used to be.  They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Michigan State (by 9) and Penn State (by 7), covering the spread in both games as 14 and 15-point dogs, respectively.  Their only blowout loss this season came to Ohio State, which is arguably the best team in the country. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after covering four straight and six of its last seven.  The oddsmakers are over adjusting here for it by making them double-digit road favorites.  If this was a normal game, this line would be high as it is.  But the fact that it’s a sandwich spot for Michigan is not being factored into the line. 

Indiana outgained Penn State by 91 yards on the road last week and probably deserved to win.  QB Peyton Ramsey has been playing some tremendous football in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr.  Ramsey is completing 72.7% of his passes for 1,673 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  He will be able to move the football on this Michigan defense. 

Indiana has played Michigan really tough the last few years.  Indeed, the Hoosiers are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And despite being 0-4 SU, all four losses came by 11 points or less, including two in overtime.  You can bet the Hoosiers want to end their long losing streak to the Wolverines and will be highly motivated to do so.  And I think they finally have the team capable of pulling off the upset as they are complete on both sides of the football this year and showing some tremendous fight against good competition.  This is their Super Bowl on Senior Day. 

Plays against any team (Michigan) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning at least 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  Indiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after having won four of its last five games.  The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +20.5 

Boston College needs one more win to get bowl eligible.  They sit at 5-5 on the season and have two road games left at Notre Dame & Pitt.  It won’t be easy as they’ll need to pull an upset to get bowl eligible for the 6th time in seven seasons under Steve Addazio. 

The Eagles are in a great spot coming off their bye with two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame.  They are better than their 5-5 record as they have gone 1-3 in games decided by 7 points or less.  Their offense is really hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Eagles have gained 500-plus yards in five of their last six games coming in. 

Boston College is one of the best rushing teams in the country, averaging 282 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Notre Dame’s weakness has been stopping the run as they have given up 200-plus rushing yards four times this season and are allowing 169 rushing yards per game overall. 

I had Notre Dame last week against Navy as I thought the 7-point spread was too short.  And Notre Dame rolled to a 52-20 victory.  But Navy rushed for 281 yards on them and gave the game away with four turnovers.  And now Notre Dame will have to face a physical running team two weeks in a row.   

Notre Dame is 4-11 ATS the week after facing Navy the last 15 years.  It’s clear playing Navy takes a toll on them the next week.  Boston College’s offensive line is better than Notre Dame’s defensive line, and that’s why the Eagles have a chance to keep this one close.  That’s the key matchup in this game that is in Boston College’s favor. 

Addazio is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Boston College.  Notre Dame is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after leading its last two games by 14-plus points at halftime.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Boston College is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Notre Dame.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -8 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as 7.5-point road favorites.  And yesterday they beat Eastern Kentucky 89-70 as 7.5-point favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

UNC-Wilmington has some very concerning results this year.  They are 3-3 and lost by 38 at Davidson as 15.5-point favorites.  Perhaps the more concerning result is their 46-47 loss to Cleveland State as 5.5-point favorites last week.  That’s the same Cleveland State team FIU beat 107-61 on the road, giving these teams a common opponent.  This game has blowout written all over it, and I’m shocked FIU isn’t a double-digit favorite.  Bet Florida International Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +14 

I love fading Minnesota in this spot.  The Golden Gophers just had their dreams of making the four-team playoff crushed with their loss to Iowa last week and their unbeaten season is over.  Teams usually struggle to rebound following such a devastating loss, and many times it’s the kind of loss that beats a team twice.  We’re just asking Minnesota not to win by more than two touchdowns this week, though. 

Another reason Minnesota has no incentive to show up this week is because the result of this game means nothing.  They could lose this game and beat Wisconsin next week and get to the Big Ten Championship Game.  They could beat Northwestern this week, but they’d still have to beat Wisconsin next week to get to the title game.  Essentially, this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things. 

I am fairly certain this game means more to Northwestern.  It’s their Super Bowl getting to face a Top 25 team at home.  And It’s Senior Day, so you know the Wildcats will want to send their seniors out a winner.  Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best motivators in college football, and his teams show up almost every week as a result.  They will give the Gophers more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend. 

A big reason Northwestern’s record is so bad is because they have played the 24th-toughest schedule in the country.  Minnesota has played the 60th-ranked schedule, which is 34 spots lower.  And Northwestern has four losses this season by 10 points or less, so they haven’t fared well in close games.  I think this one will go down to the wire as well given the terrible spot for the Gophers. 

Minnesota star QB Tanner Morgan hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol.  He is worth a lot of points to the spread over a pair of freshmen backups who are battling to replace him in practice this week if need be.  And this line has been bet from Minnesota -7 to Minnesota -14 throughout the week, indicating that Morgan will likely play.  But if he doesn’t play, we have some tremendous value here.  I think it’s a good bet whether he plays or not, and this line move is unwarranted. 

Minnesota has only beaten Northwestern by more than 14 points one time in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Wildcats are 25-6-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Colorado State/Wyoming ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado State +7 

The Colorado State Rams sit at 4-6 and in need of a win to keep their bowl hopes alive.  That assures they’ll show up tonight at Wyoming, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright. 

The Rams have been grossly underrated after a slow start this season.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and have outgained five of seven opponents despite going just 3-4 SU during this stretch.  They have several misleading finals this season against some very good teams. 

On September 21st, Colorado State lost 35-41 to Toledo despite outgaining them by 147 yards.  They only lost 24-34 at Utah State their next game as 24-point dogs.  They did lose 10-24 at home to San Diego State but were only outgained by 3 yards.  They won 35-21 at New Mexico as 5-point favorites and outgained them by 206 yards.  They pulled the 41-31 upset at Fresno as 13.5-point dogs and outgained them by 112 yards.  They blew out UNLV 37-17 as 7.5-point home favorites. 

Last week, Colorado State gave Air Force everything they wanted.  And that’s an Air Force team that is arguably the best in the Mountain West.  The Rams led 14-10 heading into the 4th quarter, but were outscored 28-7 in the final period.  They were going in at the 1-yard line to make it a 3-point game in the final minutes, but threw a 99-yard INT returned for a TD.  They wound up losing by 17 as 10.5-point dogs, which was one of the worst bad beats of the season.  They outgained Air Force by 33 yards in the loss.  I think that misleading final is creating extra line value for us on Colorado State this week. 

Wyoming had a chance to win the Mountain West, but lost at Boise State two weeks ago.  They also lost at Utah State last week and now have no chance to win the Mountain West.  Sitting at 6-4 on the season, they are already bowl eligible and have little to play for.  I certainly question their motivation tonight compared to that of Colorado State, which is still playing for a bowl. 

Wyoming lost starting QB Sean Chambers a couple weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury.  That was a huge blow because backup Tyler Vander Waal has been awful in his place.  Vander Waal is completing just 52% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions while averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt.  He also is not a runner, whereas Chambers was a dual-threat who had 567 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.3 per carry on the ground.  Not having to defend that dual-threat makes Wyoming’s offense one of the worst in the country now with Vander Waal. 

Colorado State boasts one of the best offenses that Wyoming will have faced this season.  The Rams average 30.6 points and 460.5 yards per game on the season.  Wyoming has faced one of the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the country as their opponents only average 22.9 points and 367 yards per game on the year.  And Wyoming is probably the biggest fraud of any bowl eligible team in the country.  The Cowboys have actually been outgained in eight of their 10 games this season despite their 6-4 record. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Wyoming) - after having lost two of their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado State Friday. 

Note: Buy from +6.5 to +7 (-120)

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -6.5 

The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are proving it quickly with a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They beat Fresno by 14, Boise by 31, Memphis by 8 and UT-Arlington by 20. And now they will get another double-digit win over Houston tonight. 

The Houston Cougars are still being priced like the team that went 33-4 last season.  But the Cougars are far from that team as they lost four starters from that squad in Corey Davis (17.0 PPG), Armani Brooks (13.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG), Galen Robinson Jr. (8.0 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Braeon Brady (6.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG). 

Houston has opened 4-0 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They were upset at home by BYU 71-72 as 11.5-point favorites.  And they trailed Rice by 9 in the final five minutes before going on a big run to pull out the 97-89 win as 13-point favorites.  Now they will face their toughest test yet by far tonight. 

Oregon is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oregon) - a top team outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game, after allowing 50 points or less last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Oregon Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Florida International -7.5 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as identical 7.5-point road favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

Eastern Kentucky is picked to finish near the bottom of the Ohio Valley Conference this season and for good reason.  They went just 13-18 last year and lost two double-digit scorers in Nick Mayo (23.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dujuanta Weaver (10.2 PPG).  That’s a lot of production lost.  The Colonels are 3-2, but their three wins have all come at home against Chattanooga, Chillicothe and Alice Lloyd.  They lost by 42 at Kentucky and by 8 at home to Western Kentucky. 

Eastern Kentucky is 1-9 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Colonels are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Golden Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  FIU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Take Florida International Friday. 

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UConn -3.5 

The UConn Huskies are in Year 2 under Dan Hurley.  I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are off to a 2-1 start this season with an impressive upset win over Florida.  They returned four key players who all averaged at least 8.4 points per game last year. 

Christian Vital (19.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) is a senior guard who is among the AAC’s best players.  Josh Carlton (13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) was the AAC’s most improved player last year and is taking that next step.  Alterique Gilbert (12.7 PPG) is finally healthy after battling shoulder injuries his entire career.  Tyler Polley (12.7 PPG) is a sweet stroke and is shooting 47.1% from 3-point range after making 38% last year. 

Buffalo is a team I’m looking to fade in the early going.  They are coming off their most wins in program history, and as a result they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama.  Jim Whitesell is in his first season and the Bulls have to replace five crucial seniors, including CJ Massinburg (18.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG last year) and Jeremy Harris (14.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team. 

We saw a sign of things to come in Buffalo’s opener when it was upset 63-68 at home by Dartmouth as an 11.5-point favorite.  And their two wins came against Nazareth and Harvard, so this will be a big step up in class facing UConn tonight. 

UConn is 17-5 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Huskies will have gained a ton of confidence with that upset win over Florida, and it will carry over to this matchup with Buffalo tonight.  Bet UConn Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +8 

The Toledo Rockets are among the favorites to win the MAC this season and for good reason.  Toledo head coach Td Kowalcyk enters his 10th season with the program, and the Rockets are a perennial contender.  They are coming off a 25-8 season and a first-place finish in the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets return three starters in Marreon Jackson (11.7 PPG, 4.2 APG last year), Luke Knapke (10.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and William Jackson (8.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG).  The Rockets are off to a 3-1 start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Valparaiso in their opener by 2 points.  They have blowout wins over Marshall (by 26), Robert Morris (by 14) and Howard (by 44). 

Notre Dame is coming off a disastrous 14-19 season.  The Fighting Irish returned five starters this year, but they don’t have much talent.  That’s clear when you consider despite being 4-1 SU they are just 1-4 ATS this season.  They only beat Marshall by 10 as 19-point home favorites and Presbyterian by 10 as 26.5-point home favorites in their last two games coming in.  Toledo won at Marshall by 26 to give them a common opponent and a big reason they can stay within 8 points here. 

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC opponents.  The Rockets are 11-3 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  Take Toledo Thursday. 

20* Colts/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 this season in games started and finished by Jacoby Brissett this season.  They lost the only two games he didn’t play the entire way to the Steelers and Dolphins.  But they got him back last week, and the Colts promptly crushed the Jaguars 33-13 at home. 

Brissett wasn’t asked to do much because the Colts ran all over the Jaguars for 264 rushing yards.  That’s bad news for the Texans, which just gave up 263 rushing yards to the Ravens last week.  The Texans lost that game 7-41 and were outgained by 259 yards.  This is a team that I just don’t trust now now because they lost J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury and their offensive and defensive lines are terrible. 

Yes, the Texans have the flash with Watson and his receivers, but the Colts have the substance.  The Colts can sustain success because they have one of the league’s best offensive lines and also one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Colts are 11th in total defense at 325.6 yards per game while the Texans are 25th at 374.4 yards per game allowed.  And keep in mind the Colts were banged up on D for much of the season but are as healthy as they’ve been now.  And the Texans are banged up on D now. 

The Colts own the Texans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Indianapolis is 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Houston.  The Texans are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. AFC South opponents.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet the Colts Thursday.