|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-17-22||Purdue v. Illinois -111||Top||96-88||Loss||-111||2 h 49 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois ML -111
Illinois is 11-1 in its last 12 games with its only loss coming to Arizona, which may be the best team in the country. I look for the Fighting Illini to continue rolling this afternoon at home against the Purdue Boilermakers on MLK Day.
While the Fighting Illini have been dominant in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, the Boilermakers have been exposed by going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have played only two true road games during this stretch and lost outright at Rutgers as 13.5-point favorites and only beat Penn State by 7 as 9.5-point favorites. They were also upset at home by Wisconsin as 12.5-point favorites.
Brad Underwood has Matt Painter's number. The Fighting Illini are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 26 as 1.5-point home favorites, by 17 as 6-point road underdogs and by 8 as 8-point home favorites. We are getting the Fighting Illini cheap today as just a PK at home.
The Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Illinois is 9-0 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the last two seasons. Bet Illinois Monday.
|01-16-22||Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5||21-42||Win||100||74 h 2 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed. They have played essentially six straight playoffs games. They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.
Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three. The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB. The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory. Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good. That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.
Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs. And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards. Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.
We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9. Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders. And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers. Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score. In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.
This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead. Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score. The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.
This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run. The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday. Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch. The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.
Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City. We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|01-16-22||49ers +3 v. Cowboys||Top||23-17||Win||103||70 h 17 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL. Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys. They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.
The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason. After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT). They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT. They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win. It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.
Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense. Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense. They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).
While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated. It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.
The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards. That's a fellow NFC West team. The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games. They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.
The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game. He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus. Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus. That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys. The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game. Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.
Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw. These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game. Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games. Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.
The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game. Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|01-16-22||Suns v. Pistons UNDER 215.5||135-108||Loss||-110||3 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Pistons UNDER 215.5
Early afternoon Sunday UNDERS have been a great bet in the NBA for years. The number is right to pull the trigger on this UNDER today between the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons. This game will be played at a snail's pace and both teams will be getting after it defensively.
The Suns just got back DeAndre Ayton and JaVale McGee. It's no surprise their defense has picked up their play with these two in the lineup. The Suns allowed 95 points to the Raptors and 94 points to the Pacers in their last two games. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.
Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that ranks dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season. The Pistons have been held to 103 or fewer points in four of their last five games. But they are playing better defensively, holding two of their last four opponents to 92 points or fewer.
Cameron Johnson has missed the last couple games for the Suns and is questionable to return, which is a big reason their offense has struggled in scoring 106 points or fewer in three of their last four. The Pistons will be without three guards in Jerami Grant, Frank Jackson and Rodney McGruder today.
The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Suns last 10 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-16-22||Penn State +9.5 v. Ohio State||56-61||Win||100||2 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +9.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions have been grossly undervalued in Big Ten play of late. They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by 7 to Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs. They upset Indiana as 5-point home dogs, upset Northwestern as 8-point road dogs and crushed Rutgers by 17 as 2-point home favorites.
Now I love the spot for the Nittany Lions as they won't be having a letdown. Instead, they will be out for revenge from a 64-76 home loss to Ohio State as 5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season. Now they are catching 9.5 points in the rematch. Ohio State isn't going to shoot as well as it did in the first meeting, making 50.9% overall and 12-of-27 (44.4%) from 3-point range.
The Buckeyes aren't playing well enough to justify being 9.5-point favorites here. They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They needed OT to beat Nebraska as a 9.5-point road favorite, got crushed by 16 at Indiana, only won by 8 at home over Northwestern as 7.5-point favorites and lost by 10 at Wisconsin as 3.5-point dogs. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking to much here.
Penn State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse. The Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as road underdogs. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. Roll with Penn State Sunday.
|01-15-22||Oregon State +16.5 v. UCLA||65-81||Win||100||13 h 8 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +16.5
UCLA has not been sharp since returning from a COVID pause. They were off from December 11th until January 6th. They have returned and gone 0-3 ATS, winning by 18 over Long Beach State as a 26-point favorite and winning by 8 at California as an 8.5-point favorite.
Then on Thursday the Bruins lost outright as 9.5-point home favorites to Oregon. The Bruins are playing without any home fans right now, so they have almost zero home-court advantage. That isn't being factored into their lines enough.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Oregon State after a disastrous start to the season after making the Elite 8 last year. The Beavers have been consistently undervalued in recent weeks, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat Utah by 12 as 4.5-point home dogs, only lost by 2 to Oregon as 4.5-point home dogs and only lost by 10 at USC as 14.5-point road dogs. If they can hang with those teams, they can certainly hang with UCLA tonight.
Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or less. In fact, UCLA hasn't beaten Oregon State by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings. The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Oregon State Saturday.
|01-15-22||Magic +10.5 v. Mavs||92-108||Loss||-110||12 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5
I cashed in the Magic last night as 11-point underdogs in a 116-109 outright win at Charlotte. I'm back on them again tonight as this team is getting healthier now and has covered three straight as a result.
In fact, the Magic have been extremely competitive of late against good teams as each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. They just got both Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs back from injuries and could get a couple more big men back tonight.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who have won seven of their last eight including a win at Memphis last night to put an end to the Grizzlies' 11-game winning streak. But Memphis was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and it was a bad spot for them. Now the Mavericks will have their letdown after ending the Grizzlies' winning streak.
Dallas is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games overall.
Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% on the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Magic Saturday.
|01-15-22||Patriots v. Bills -4||Top||17-47||Win||100||50 h 2 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Bills CBS Saturday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -4
The Buffalo Bills have elite stats that would suggest they are the best team in the NFL. Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in handicapping NFL teams. Well, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in allowing just 4.6 yards per play on defense and 14th in averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense. Their +1.1 YPP differential is the best mark in the entire NFL.
The Bills also average 28.4 points per game and 381.7 yards per game on offense and give up just 17.0 points per game and 272.8 yards per game on defense. They are outscoring teams by 11.4 points per game and outgaining them by 108.9 yards per game on the season. Simply put, they are an elite team and should be more than 4-point favorites over the Patriots.
The first meeting in Buffalo this season was fluky as it was hurricane winds and the Patriots won 14-10 while throwing the ball just three times. The Bills took that loss personally and have been a different team since. After losing 27-33 (OT) at Tampa Bay against the healthy defending champs at that time, they have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games while outgaining all four opponents, including the Jets by 371 yards last game in a misleading 27-10 win.
That also included a 33-21 win at New England in which they got their revenge and outgained the Patriots by 140 yards. Wind wasn't a factor in that game, and the Patriots had to try and do more than just run the ball. Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Conversely, Mac Jones went just 14-of-32 passing for 145 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Jones is going to have to try and do more than he did in that first meeting in Buffalo. Yes, it will be cold, but winds will be in single-digits which favors the Bills drastically. The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson clear back in 2012. Jones is still a rookie, and just because he plays for the Patriots doesn't mean he is going to overcome this trend.
The Patriots are reeling having gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the Jaguars. Jones and the offense are a problem, but is a defense that has now allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game in their last six games. The Bills have rushed for 161.8 yards per game in their last five games, so they can also run the ball at will on the Patriots if they so choose instead of relying on Allen's arm. They have so many ways to beat the Patriots and are better everywhere.
The Bills are legit Super Bowl contenders with their elite stats and playoff experience gained the last couple seasons. Last year, they made the AFC Championship Game. That's important because home teams coming off a loss in last year's conference championship are 44-8 SU & 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 tries. The Bills are ready to take that next step, and the Patriots aren't good enough to do anything about is, especially with a rookie QB up against a veteran stud like Josh Allen.
Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 home games. The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC East opponents. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-15-22||Cavs v. Thunder +5.5||Top||107-102||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games. They had yesterday off and are fully healthy and ready to go tonight.
The same cannot be said for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days after a 114-109 win in San Antonio last night. I really like this Cleveland team and have backed them with success all season, but this is a terrible spot for them and they need faded tonight because of it.
The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|01-15-22||Houston v. Tulsa +11||66-64||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +11
Houston should not be a double-digit favorite at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country. They consistently exceed expectations at home, and I fully expect them to give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.
Tulsa comes in highly motivated for a victory as it is coming off three straight losses to very good SMU, Memphis and Temple teams all by 5 points or less. In fact, seven of their eight losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer, so they are undervalued just based on their record.
Houston is overvalued after winning six straight coming in, but three of those wins came by 11 points or fewer and the others were against overmatched Lafayette, Texas State and South Florida teams. Tulsa is 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Houston. That includes outright upsets as 9.5-point dogs and 6-point dogs in their last two home meetings.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Golden Hurricane are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4 or more boards per game than their opponents. Take Tulsa Saturday.
|01-15-22||Loyola-Chicago v. Indiana State +9.5||64-56||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +9.5
Loyola-Chicago is grossly overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak. That includes a 12-point home win over Indiana State as 18-point favorites. Now the Sycamores will be out for revenge, and asking the Ramblers to go on the road and beat them by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.
Loyola-Chicago has had some very good luck in close games recently. They beat San Francisco by 5, needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valparaiso as a 15.5-point home favorite in their last three games coming in. Their luck runs out today, and at the very least the Sycamores cover.
I have been very impressed with Indiana State in MVC play this season. They played Loyola-Chicago tough in that first meeting, upset Bradley 76-71 as 3.5-point home underdogs and took Northern Iowa to OT as 12-point road underdogs. Those are three of the best teams in MVC this season and arguably the two best in UNI and Loyola, so they have proven they belong.
Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 22.7 points per game. The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three seasons. Indiana State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. Bet Indiana State Saturday.
|01-15-22||Raiders v. Bengals -5||Top||19-26||Win||100||46 h 18 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Bengals NFL Wild Card Opener on Cincinnati -5
The Cincinnati Bengals are rested and ready to pick up where they left off when they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games prior to Week 18 to seal the AFC North title. They beat the Broncos 15-10 as 3-point road underdogs, the Ravens 41-21 as 7.5-point home favorites and the Chiefs 34-31 as 3.5-point home dogs to clinch the title.
The Bengals decided to rest their starters in a 16-21 loss at Cleveland in Week 18. That was a wise move by Zac Taylor, who is among the favorites to win Coach of the Year. Of course, franchise QB Joe Burrow was banged up against the Chiefs and Joe Mixon was out with COVID, so it was an easy decision. But now the Bengals come back fresh and primed for a big effort at home against the Raiders on Saturday.
Conversely, this couldn't be a worse spot for the Raiders. They had to win four straight games to close the season which were all basically playoff games. All four wins came by 4 points or less as they were simply good at winning coin flips. But they needed OT to beat the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and now the NFL has done them no favors by making them play the first wild card game Saturday afternoon. They are gassed and have nothing left in the tank for the Bengals here.
The Raiders were in a similarly tough situation when they hosted the Bengals earlier this season. They were coming off a Sunday night game against the Chiefs and they had a Thursday game on deck against the Cowboys. Predictably, they fell flat and were crushed 32-13 by the Bengals in Las Vegas. I think they get crushed again here in what is actually an even worse spot for them.
The Raiders have the worst run defense of all the playoff teams according to pro football focus. Joe Mixon rushed for 123 yards and two scores against the Raiders in that first meeting. And you know Joe Burrow is going to have another great game as he has been on fire down the stretch and has that big game experience by leading LSU to a national title. This playoff atmosphere won't phase him.
Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Ravens in Week 16 and followed it up with 446 yards and four scores without a pick against the Chiefs in Week 17. He now has an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while completing at least 68% of his passes in all four games. He is probably the single-most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now.
Las Vegas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog over a division opponent. The Raiders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bengals Saturday.
|01-15-22||Louisville v. Pittsburgh +5||Top||53-65||Win||100||7 h 40 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Pittsburgh ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +5
The Pittsburgh Panthers have been grossly undervalued for over a month. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight games decided by 4 points or fewer. So that fact alone says there's value with the Panthers catching 5 points at home today.
I backed Pittsburgh as a double-digit dog at Louisville in their 72-75 loss on January 5th. Now I'm back on them again in this great revenge spot here just 10 days later and at home this time around. Louisville is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Cardinals are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
They lost outright to DePaul as 7.5-point home favorites, outright to Western Kentucky by 10 as favorites, and by 16 as 6-point home favorites to NC State last time out among some of their worst performances. It really shows how bad this team really is, and each of their last three wins came by 4 points or less.
The Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|01-15-22||Oklahoma v. TCU +107||58-59||Win||107||7 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU ML +107
TCU is 11-2 this season including 6-1 at home with its only loss to Baylor. The wrong team is favored in this game as the Horned Frogs host Oklahoma today. It's a Sooners team that is 1-2 SU in true road games with its lone win coming by 3 points and both losses by double-digits.
Oklahoma is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Sooners are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games as road favorites. Oklahoma is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a favorite overall. The Horned Frogs are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Roll with TCU on the Money Line Saturday.
|01-15-22||Texas v. Iowa State +2.5||Top||70-79||Win||100||5 h 40 m||Show|
20* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5
The Iowa State Cyclones have been grossly underrated all season. And they are getting disrespected again here as home underdogs to the Texas Longhorns. This is a game I fully expect them to win outright.
The Cyclones opened 12-0 with several outright upsets as underdogs. They have opened 1-3 SU in Big 12 play but are 2-2 ATS. They only lost by 5 to Baylor as 7.5-point dogs and by 1 at Kansas as 13-point dogs, which are arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 and shows what they are capable of. They also beat Texas Tech at home. Now they are highly motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in conference.
Texas is 3-1 in conference but has played a much softer schedule. Their only road win came at Kansas State and the Wildcats were missing a ton of players due to COVID. They are also one of the worst teams in the Big 12. The Longhorns lost by 13 at Oklahoma State, another team that isn't very good. And they beat short-handed West Virginia and Oklahoma at home.
Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. teams that average 9 or more steals per game. Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games. The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-15-22||Northwestern +8 v. Michigan State||Top||64-62||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +8
I love the spot for the Northwestern Wildcats today. They will be out for revenge from a 67-73 home loss to Michigan State on January 2nd. Now they get to face the Spartans less than two weeks later and are catching 8 points this time around after catching only 3 points at home.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost four straight coming in but all four losses have come by 8 points or fewer. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spartans, who have won nine straight coming in.
But the Spartans are starting to get a little lazy and failing to meeting expectations. They are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only cover coming in that 6-point win at Northwestern as 3-point favorites. They only beat High Point by 13 as 22.5-point home favorites, Nebraska by 12 as 14.5-point home favorites and Minnesota by 2 as 11.5-point home favorites.
The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Roll with Northwestern Saturday.
|01-14-22||Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 216.5||112-85||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
15* Mavs/Grizzlies ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5
The UNDER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games overall. They have combined with their opponents for 212 or fewer points in seven of those eight games, including 193 or fewer in five of those. The lone exception came against Houston which is an over team.
Memphis is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. That will affect them more on offense than it will on defense. They won't be looking to push the tempo tonight, and the Mavericks will gladly play at a snail's pace with them.
This will already be the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. They combined for just 187 points in their first meeting and 200 points in their second meeting. It should be more of the same tonight as the books have set this number way too high.
Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 home games following four or more consecutive wins. The UNDER is 16-5 in Mavericks last 21 games overall. The UNDER is 32-14 in Mavericks last 46 games as underdogs. The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven home games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six games as home favorites. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-14-22||Michigan +10 v. Illinois||53-68||Loss||-110||12 h 44 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines. They are off to a disappointing 7-6 start this season and coming off upset road losses to both UCF and Rutgers. But they have had the last nine days off to get healthy, rested and ready to take on Illinois tonight.
I fully expect a big effort from the Wolverines, which should be enough to cover this inflated 10-point spread. Michigan has been favored in all 13 games this season, and now they are not only an underdog for the first time, but a double-digit underdog at that. This fact alone shows you there's value with Michigan and we are getting them at their best price of the season.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois. The Fighting Illini have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss to Arizona. But they have feasted on a weak schedule for the most part and five of the 10 wins have come by 10 points or fewer. That includes a 10-point win at Nebraska as 12.5-point favorites last time out. And they needed a late surge to beat Maryland by 12 in their previous game at home.
Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Wolverines have the size inside to match up with Kofi Cockburn. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Michigan Friday.
|01-14-22||Magic +11 v. Hornets||Top||116-109||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +11
The betting public wants nothing to do with the Orlando Magic right now. They have lost 10 straight games, but they clearly have not quit as each of their last six losses have come by 10 points or less. And I think they make that seven in a row here as they keep this game competitive against the Charlotte Hornets.
This is a terrible spot for the Hornets and a great time to 'sell high' on them. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall including two wins over the Bucks. They just ended their 16-game losing streak to the 76ers in their head-to-head series last time. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Hornets now as they feel like they can just show up and beat the Magic.
A big reason the Magic have been more competitive of late with six straight losses by 10 points or fewer is because they have gotten healthier. They recently got their best player in Cole Anthony (19.8 PPG, 5.9 APG) back, and now they are expected to get another key player in rookie Jalen Suggs (12.3 PPG, 3.6 APG) back from a thumb injury tonight. Five of their top six scorers are back healthy.
These teams have already met twice this season with the Hornets winning both games by single-digits. In fact, Charlotte hasn't won any of its last nine meetings with the Magic by more than 9 points, making for a 9-0 system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread. The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Magic Friday.
|01-13-22||Blazers v. Nuggets -10.5||108-140||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -10.5
The Denver Nuggets are getting healthier and ready to blow out the Portland Trail Blazers tonight as they return home following an upset road loss to the Clippers. Look for them to win this game by double-digits and cover this spread against a Blazers team whose health situation just keeps getting worse.
The Blazers were able to stay competitive in recent games without Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum due to Anfernee Simons stepping his game up. He has averaged 27.8 PPG and 7.6 APG in his last five games. But now Simons is out tonight for personal reasons, so the Blazers will be without their top four scores in Lillard (24.0 PPG), McCollum (20.6 PPG), Powell (18.6 PPG) and Simons. That stand zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Nuggets without them.
Denver is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Portland with the three wins coming by an average of 18.3 points per game, and that was with much healthier Blazers teams and much shorter spreads. Portland is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games. Take the Nuggets Thursday.
|01-13-22||Rice +8.5 v. Western Kentucky||66-80||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +8.5
The Rice Owls are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season and has impressive me. The Owls are 9-5 this season and coming off a win over the favorite to win Conference USA in UAB outright as 10.5-point underdogs. I fully expect them to hang with Western Kentucky tonight.
Western Kentucky was a great team the last few years but lost a lot of talent from those teams. They are just 9-6 this season, but they continue to get a lot of respect because they have been a good basketball program. They should not be 8.5-point home favorites against Rice tonight.
Rice is +5.4 points per game this season based on what their opponents normally average on offense and give up on defense. Western Kentucky is +6.6 points per game based on the same criteria. So the Hilltoppers would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral, and they don't have a 7.5-point home-court advantage. There's value on the Owls tonight.
Three of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and those were much better WKU teams and much worse Rice teams than these 2021-22 versions. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Hilltoppers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Western Kentucky is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Roll with Rice Thursday.
|01-13-22||Wolves v. Grizzlies OVER 230.5||Top||108-116||Loss||-110||8 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves/Grizzlies OVER 230.5
Two teams lighting up the scoreboards recently square off tonight in the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies. This one has shootout written all over it folks. Shootouts have been standard in this head-to-head series as the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 233, 243 and 274 points.
The key for the Timberwolves is having De'Angelo Russell healthy as it has flourish when he, Towns and Edwards are on the floor at the same time. Indeed, the Timberwolves have scored 122 or more points in four of their last five games overall and 125 or more in three straight. None of those games went to overtime, either.
The Grizzlies just got JA Morant back and that's a big reason they are on a 10-game winning streak. They have scored 110 or more points in seven straight games coming in and in nine of the 10 games during this winning streak. I see both teams pushing for 120-plus points in this one.
Minnesota is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after winning four of its last five games. The Timberwolves are 8-0 OVER vs. good rebounding teams averaging 3 or more boards than their opponent this season. The OVER is 10-1 in Timberwolves 11 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points this season. The OVER is 13-3 in Timberwolves last 16 road games. The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Memphis and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|01-13-22||Oklahoma State +7.5 v. Texas Tech||Top||57-78||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +7.5
This is the perfect spot to fade the Texas Tech Red Raiders. They are coming off two straight shocking upsets of the two favorites to win the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor. They even handed the Bears their first loss of the season on Tuesday.
Now the Red Raiders are feeling fat and happy and I expect them to fall flat on their faces tonight. This is a great time to 'sell high' on them here, and also a great time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have lost three of their last four to three of the best teams in the country in Houston, Kansas and West Virginia. They also upset Texas 64-51 as 3-point dogs for their lone win during this stretch of four straight games as underdogs.
Oklahoma State has had Texas Tech's number. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three outright upsets as underdogs. That includes an 82-77 win as 8-point road dogs at Texas Tech last season.
The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference loss. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a loss. The Red Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after covering four or five of their last six ATS. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after winning four of its last five games. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cowboys. Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.
|01-13-22||North Texas -3 v. Marshall||69-65||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -3
North Texas is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming to UAB, a team it is vying for a Conference USA title win. That includes upset wins over Drake as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4-point dogs on the highway.
Marshall has been overrated all season, going 7-8 SU & 3-10 ATS in lined games. The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with five straight losses by double-digits. That includes home losses to Northern Iowa by 15 as 2.5-point favorites and Florida Atlantic by 13 as 5-point favorites.
The numbers show North Texas is by far the superior team and should be a bigger favorite here. North Texas is +12 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense this season. Marshall is only +0.4 points per game based on the same criteria, so North Texas is 12 points better on a neutral. The Mean Green have played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while the Thundering Herd have played the 111th.
North Texas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in two consecutive games. The Mean Green are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 75 points or more in two consecutive games. The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Mean Green. Take North Texas Thursday.
|01-12-22||Cavs +6 v. Jazz||111-91||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +6
The Utah Jazz have been grossly overvlaued for weeks. They are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have been without Rudy Gobert in each of their last three games and it has hurt them as they lost by 14 at Toronto, by 12 at Indiana and by 10 at Detroit.
Utah is a terrible defensive team without Gobert, who helps clean up their mistakes. The Jazz allowed 122 points to the Raptors, 125 to the Pacers and 126 to the Pistons. This is a tough spot for them as they will be playing their first home game following a five-game road trip. It will also be their 8th game in 13 days.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cavaliers after going 1-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. But they were missing several key players during this stretch and are as healthy as they have been in a while tonight. It will also be just their 4th game in 8 days.
Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) - revenging a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite are 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cavaliers are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Jazz are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|01-12-22||Illinois State +12.5 v. Drake||75-86||Win||100||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State +12.5
The Drake Bulldogs were one of the best covering teams in the country over the last few seasons. But the odds have clearly caught up with them this season as they are 11-5 SU but just 3-10 ATS in their 13 lined games. And they continue to be overvalued in conference play, including here tonight against Illinois State.
Drake is 0-3 ATS in conference play this season beating Valpo by 7 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 5 at Missouri State as 4-point dogs and only beating Evansville by 1 as double-digit road favorites. Now they are overvalued once again as 12.5-point home favorites against Illinois State.
Illinois State is playing well right now going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games. The Redbirds beat Ball State by 21 as 5.5-point home favorites and UTSA by 17 as 9-point home favorites. Then they went on the road at Wisconsin and only lost by 4 as 17-point underdogs before losing by 5 at Valpo in OT as 5.5-point dogs. That effort against Wisconsin says all you need to know about their potential.
The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. Illinois State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Drake is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Drake is 0-8 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Bet Illinois State Wednesday.
|01-12-22||Magic +6.5 v. Wizards||Top||106-112||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +6.5
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic. They have lost eight straight coming in but a lot of them have been competitive losses. Indeed, four of their last five losses have come by 5 points or less, so getting 6.5 points with them here is a nice value.
That's especially the case considering the terrible spot for the Wizards and the great one for the Magic. Orlando will be out for revenge from a 100-102 home loss to the Wizards as 7-point underdogs last time out on Monday. Now they have had two days off since that defeat and will be the fresher, more motivated team.
Meanwhile, the Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 122-118 home win over Oklahoma City last night. They won't have their best player in Bradley Beal, who is doubtful with COVID. They should not be 6.5-point favorites here without Beal and in this terrible spot.
The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Washington is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Wizards are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Washington. Bet the Wizards Wednesday.
|01-12-22||Celtics v. Pacers +2.5||119-100||Loss||-104||7 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5
I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 98-101 (OT) loss at Boston on Monday. They don't have to wait long for a shot at revenge here just two days later Wednesday, and they get the Celtics at home this time around.
The Pacers were last seen at home upsetting the Jazz 125-113 as 4-point dogs on Saturday. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight so they are rested and ready to go. And there's a chance they get Malcolm Brodgon, Caris LeVert and Chris Duarte back tonight, who are all questionable.
The Celtics are a tired team right now playing their 5th game in 8 days. And they will be without their leader in Marcus Smart, who got hurt against the Pacers last game and is out with a thigh injury. He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA with what he's able to do on both ends of the floor for this team.
Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games. Indiana is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing six or seven or its last eight games. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. Take the Pacers Wednesday.
|01-12-22||Memphis v. UCF +105||Top||64-74||Win||105||7 h 16 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF ML +105
I love the spot for UCF tonight. They were feeling fat and happy off their 85-71 upset home win of Michigan and have proceeded to lose their last two games to SMU and Temple. Now they have had a fully week to steam over those losses and get ready for Memphis tonight. Look for one of their best efforts of the season similar to that effort against Michigan tonight.
It will be good enough to win and cover against a Memphis squad that is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to Penny Hardaway and his recruiting. Memphis is just 4-5 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. That includes upset losses to Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites, Georgia as 11.5-point favorites, Ole Miss as 1.5-point favorites, Murray State as 10-point favorites and Tulane as 6-point favorites.
UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover four or five of its last six against the spread. Memphis is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take UCF on the Money Line Wednesday.
|01-12-22||St. Joe's +9.5 v. Rhode Island||64-75||Loss||-108||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joseph's +9.5
St. Joseph's is battle-tested in its last four games. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS during that stretch. They won 68-49 as 1.5-point home dogs to Temple, only lost 73-77 at Bradley as 4.5-point dogs and crushed Richmond 83-56 as 11.5-point road dogs in one of the most impressive performances of any team all season.
Predictably, the Hawks laid an egg in their next game and lost 73-88 as 4.5-point home dogs to Davidson. Well, Davidson might be the best team in the Atlantic 10 this season. Now the Hawks have had a full week to get ready for Rhode Island.
This is a Rhode Island team that lost by 14 at Providence, only beat Sacred Heart by 10 at home, beat a bad Wisconsin-Milwaukee team on the road, only beat American International 70-55 at home and lost at Davidson in its last five games. They have had the much easier schedule of late, and they should not be laying nearly double-digits against St. Joe's tonight.
St. Joseph's is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more. Rhode Island is 24-48 ATS in its last 72 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games coming in. The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with St. Joseph's Wednesday.
|01-12-22||Villanova v. Xavier -1||Top||64-60||Loss||-110||7 h 47 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -1
I love the spot for Xavier tonight. This will be their 2nd meeting with Villanova in their last three games. They lost 58-71 at Villanova, and now they will be out for revenge at home this time around. I fully expect them to get their revenge with a win and cover.
Xavier has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is legitimately one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are 11-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road. That includes losses at Baylor by 21 and at Creighton by 20.
The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. The Musketeers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The favorite is 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet Xavier Wednesday.
|01-11-22||Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 219.5||Top||108-116||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 219.5
The Warriors are loaded on offense now with Curry, Poole and Wiggins all healthy plus the return of Klay Thompson. They take a hit defensively tonight with the loss of Draymond Green, plus both Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. are questionable.
The Grizzlies are healthier now and have JA Morant back and their offense has been dominant. They could be without Steven Adams, who is questionable and would hurt them defensively if he sits. They are also without another great defender in Dillon Brooks.
The Grizzlies have won nine straight coming in and have scored at least 110 points in eight of the nine wins. This figures to be a shootout with the Warriors, who have struggled offensively of late but they won't be held down for long and should get right against the Grizzlies here on that end. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Miami-FL v. Florida State -6.5||64-65||Loss||-106||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes. They have won nine straight coming in and with almost all those wins at home. But they did go on the road and beat Duke outright as a 15-point favorite on Saturday for their signature victory. Now this is an obvious letdown spot for the Hurricanes at Florida State tonight.
Florida State got back on track with a 79-70 home win over Louisville last time out. They are bitter rivals with Miami and would love to end their nine-game winning streak. I think they do so in blowout fashion as they simply own the Hurricanes.
Indeed, the Seminoles have won seven straight meetings with the Hurricanes and are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They have won the last three meetings all by 17 points or more. The Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Hurricanes with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.
Florida State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 ACC home games. The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Seven of Miami's last nine wins have come by single-digits with the only exceptions being home wins over Lipscomb and Stetson in which they failed to cover the spread. Their luck runs out tonight in this obvious letdown spot. Take Florida State Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Suns v. Raptors UNDER 224.5||99-95||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Raptors UNDER 224.5
The Phoenix Suns just got back three of their best defenders in DeAndre Ayton, JaVale McGee and Jameson Crowder. They lose one of their best offensive weapons in Cameron Johnson, who is out with an ankle injury. He has scored in double figures in 18 straight games and shoots 43.8% from 3-point range, so it's a huge blow to them offensively.
The Raptors could be without their 4th and 5th leading scorers in Gary Trent Jr. (16.4 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (14.7 PPG), who are both questionable. I think this sets up as a defensive battle between two teams who are more than capable of playing great defense given the current players in their lineup.
Toronto ranks 23rd in pace and will control the tempo here playing at home. Phoenix ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 102.2 points per 100 possessions. Toronto has won six straight largely due to improvement on defense as they have allowed 11 or fewer points in all six victories.
Phoenix is 8-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Suns are 18-5 UNDER In their last 23 games following a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Suns last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Suns last 16 games following a loss. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Pittsburgh +10.5 v. Syracuse||Top||61-77||Loss||-110||9 h 50 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +10.5
Pittsburgh has been grossly undervalued for weeks after a slow start to the season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two non-covers coming by a combined 4 points. Their seven covers have come by a combined 51 points.
Amazingly, Pitt has played in nine straight games decided by single-digits, including eight of those by 4 points or less. That includes games against Minnesota, Virginia, St. John's, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boston College. So they have been competitive against some great competition and should not be catching double-digits against Syracuse tonight.
Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall and has lost five of its last seven with its only wins coming at home against Brown and Cornell. Every time they have faced a decent team recently they have lost. They should not be laying double-digits as they sit at just 7-8 on the season and this is one of the worst Syracuse teams in recent memory.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the last two seasons. Syracuse is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Rutgers v. Penn State -2||49-66||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. All five wins came at home. Rutgers is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 13.5 points per game on average. That includes outright losses to DePaul and UMass as favorites.
Penn State has covered three straight with upset wins over Indiana at home and Northwestern on the road. Their only loss came by 7 as 9.5-point home dogs to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the country. The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Roll with Penn State Tuesday.
|01-10-22||Nets v. Blazers +10||108-114||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +10
Both the Blazers and Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. But this is clearly a worse spot for the Nets than it is for the Blazers, who will still be playing just their 5th game in 10 days and their 8th game in 20 days.
The Nets will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. They needed overtime to beat the Spurs 121-119 at home on Sunday. Now they have the long flight out to the West Coast overnight while the Blazers get to stay at home after beating the Kings 103-88 at home last night.
That was a taxing game for the Nets last night as Kevin Durant and James Harden both played over 43 minutes. They aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Blazers. Plus, the Nets have been grossly overvalued of late in going 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by single-digits over the Pacers and Spurs. They should not be double-digit favorites at Portland tonight. The Nets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites. Roll with the Blazers Monday.
|01-10-22||76ers v. Rockets OVER 225.5||Top||111-91||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Rockets OVER 225.5
The Houston Rockets have been just fine on offense and terrible on defense. They have scored 102 or more points in 22 of their last 24 games overall with the OVER going 19-5 in those 24 games. But they have allowed 104 or more points in 21 straight games, including 111 or more in 11 straight contests.
The Rockets and their opponents have combined for 222 or more points in 12 straight games and 230 or more in six of their last seven. That includes a 113-133 road loss at Philadelphia for 246 combined points. So I don't think the 76ers and Rockets will have too much trouble topping 225.5 combined points in the rematch here tonight.
The 76ers are humming on offense right now with a recent return to health being a big reason why. They have scored 110 or more points in six straight games. Look for them to top 120 tonight and for the Rockets to do their part on offense in getting this OVER as well.
Houston is 7-0 OVER when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season. The OVER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 7-0-2 in 76ers last nine games as road favorites. The OVER is 7-0 in Rockets last seven home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system in his analysis. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-10-22||Georgia -135 v. Alabama||Top||33-18||Win||100||127 h 9 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Georgia Championship Game No-Brainer on Georgia ML -135
Let's start out by looking at this from a line value perspective. Georgia was nearly a touchdown favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now Georgia comes back as a 2.5 to 3-point favorite against Alabama in the rematch. So strictly from a line value perspective, the price is right to pull the trigger on Georgia.
We are getting Georgia cheap on the Money Line because there is a lot of money on the Alabama Money Line, so I have chosen that route instead of laying the -2.5 or -3. I fully expect them to win this game and have their revenge from the SEC Championship Game loss. The fact of the matter is Georgia has been the better team all season, and they are ready to get their Alabama monkey off their back.
I took Alabama +6.5 in the SEC Championship Game for a couple different reasons. But the main reason was that Alabama needed it like blood to get in the four-team playoff, while Georgia could lose and still get in. Simply put, Alabama wanted that game more and it showed on the field as they won outright.
It's a role reversal here. Now we are getting a max motivated Georgia team out for revenge and hungry for a National Championship. And when Georgia has been max motivated, they have rolled all season. Indeed, the Bulldogs have gone 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS in their other 13 games this season. They are outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game on the season.
I was way more impressed with Georgia's 34-11 win over Michigan than I was with Alabama's 27-6 win over Cincinnati. That was a very good Michigan team, and the Bulldogs made them look like they didn't even belong on the field. Alabama was in a dog fight with Cincinnati midway through the 3rd quarter, while the Georgia game was decided by halftime as they took a 27-3 lead and coasted from there.
Alabama passed all over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but it's not going to happen again. Kirby Smart will make the proper adjustments, and he won't have to deal with one of Alabama's best receivers in John Metchie this time around after he suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Metchie had six receptions for 97 yards and a score against Georgia in the first meeting. Now the Bulldogs can focus their attention on stopping Jameson Williams, who had 68 receptions for 1,445 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.
Metchie had 96 receptions for 1,142 yards and eight scores on the year and is a huge loss as he was Bryce Young's security blanket. Also, RG Emil Cyiyor Jr. and RT Chris Owens exited the win over Cincinnati with injuries and are questionable to play. They were already without C Darian Dalcourt and he's questionable to return as well. That's not good news for the Crimson Tide being up against the best defensive line in the country in the Bulldogs. Bet Georgia on the Money Line Monday.
|01-09-22||Grizzlies v. Lakers -3||Top||127-119||Loss||-110||10 h 24 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the Memphis Grizzlies. They have won eight straight coming in. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Clippers last night. It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Grizzlies, who have injury concerns with JA Morant, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson all questionable.
The Lakers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and playing up to their potential because of it. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Memphis on December 29th on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They only lost by 5 points, and now they are the team in the favorable situation and out for revenge. This is a great spot for the Lakers as they are the fresher, more motivated team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
Plays against road underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after covering four or five of their last six ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|01-09-22||Wolves v. Rockets OVER 232||141-123||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Rockets OVER 232
Both the Timberwolves and Rockets are dead nuts OVER teams right now. The Timberwolves just got their Big 3 back healthy in Russell, Towns and Edwards and hung 135 points on the Thunder last time out. Russell is the key as their offense is way more efficient with him and they play at a faster tempo.
The Rockets have been just fine on offense and terrible on defense. They have scored 102 or more points in 21 of their last 23 games overall with the OVER going 18-5 in those 23 games. But they have allowed 104 or more points in 20 straight games, including 111 or more in 10 straight contests.
The OVER is 7-1 in Timberwolves last eight road games. The OVER is 11-5 in Timberwolves last 16 games overall. The OVER Is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-09-22||Saints -4 v. Falcons||Top||30-20||Win||100||149 h 14 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4
The New Orleans Saints are in must-win mode in Week 18 and actually have an excellent chance to make the playoffs. They just have to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose on the road to the Rams to get in. The 49ers are a decent-sized underdog to the Rams. But first things first, and that's handling their business against the Falcons.
This is a terrible spot for the Falcons. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 29-15 loss at Buffalo last week. There will be a hangover effect here, especially after blowing a 15-14 halftime lead and getting shutout after intermission. Of course they would like to keep the Saints out of the playoffs, but I can't see them being all that motivated to do so.
And the fact of the matter is the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL and not good enough to do anything about it. They are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the season. The Falcons have been at their worst at home, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS with their only win coming against Tim Boyle and the Lions two weeks ago. They were outgained by the Lions by 84 yards and should have lost that game.
The Saints are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have won every game that Taysom Hill has started here down the stretch with their only loss coming to the Dolphins when they were down to their 4th-string QB and missing a ton of players. In fact, the Saints are 8-3 when Jameis Winston or Hill starts this season, and 0-5 in all other games.
The Saints should be able to run on Atlanta with Hill, Kamara and company. The Falcons have now allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three straight games and an average of 175 rushing yards per game in their last three.
New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL and should shut down this suspect Falcons offense. The Saints rank 4th in scoring defense while the Falcons are 27th in scoring offense. The Saints have held their last four opponents to an average of 9.8 points per game.
New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games overall. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Atlanta. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|01-09-22||49ers +5.5 v. Rams||Top||27-24||Win||100||149 h 13 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +5.5
The San Francisco 49ers are in must-win mode this weekend. They need to win to get into the playoffs or have the Saints lose to the Falcons. The Saints are 4-point favorites over the Falcons, so the 49ers don't want to rely on that. They want to handle their business here Sunday and win this game outright against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams have a lot less at stake. They just have seeding in the NFC on the line. I can't see them being max motivated here. Plus, the Rams have been fortunate to win their last two games against the Vikings and Ravens as Matthew Stafford has committed six turnovers. He isn't playing well, and he won't have much success against one of the best defenses in the NFL here.
Indeed, the 49ers not only have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.8 YPP). That is the sign of an elite team and one that is way better than their 9-7 record would indicate. The 49ers are led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 312.8 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining their opponents by nearly 60 yards per game on the season, which is better than the Rams mark of 40 yards per game.
Simply put, Kyle Shanahan owns his disciple Sean McVay. The 49ers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs. That includes their 31-10 home win as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season. Stafford went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in that defeat.
The Rams are 0-6 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive wins. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in thier last six January games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|01-09-22||Hawks -4 v. Clippers||93-106||Loss||-107||5 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4
This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Los Angeles Clippers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks had yesterday off and will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.
The Hawks will be motivated to end this six-game road trip a winner. They have gotten healthier as the trip has gone on and are actually as healthy as they have been in a long time as they just got Trae Young and John Collins back among other. Expect a big effort from them this afternoon.
The Clippers are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are really struggling without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. They have lost their last three games in blowout fashion to the Timberwolves by 18, the Suns by 17 and the Grizzlies by 15. I don't expect them to be competitive today either given the spot, and they have even less rest considering this is an afternoon game.
The Clippers are 3-11 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Los Angeles is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games after four straight games where they were outrebounded by 5 or more boards. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. Take the Hawks Sunday.
|01-09-22||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Memphis||Top||80-87||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
20* Cincinnati/Memphis ABC No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5
The Memphis Tigers have nine players either out or questionable on their injury report with all of them legitimate injuries instead of COVID. That includes Duren (11.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Bates (10.8 PPG), Nolley II (9.2 PPG) and Lomax (5.9 PPG) among others.
The Tigers have already been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season. I faded them with success last time out with Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane only lost 64-67 as 13-point road underdogs. And I'm fading them again today with the Cincinnati Bearcats catching too many points at Memphis.
The Bearcats are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall. That includes a 77-60 win over SMU as 2.5-point home favorites last time out in one of their most complete games of the season. Unlike Memphis, they are as healthy as they have been all season entering AAC play here and ready to make some noise in the conference.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less. In fact, Memphis has only beaten Cincinnati by more than 6 points once in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.
|01-09-22||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||17-31||Loss||-103||93 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5
The Chicago Bears are quietly playing their best football of the season here down the stretch. They have won two in a row over the Seahawks as 7-point dogs and the Giants 29-3 as 7-point favorites with two different quarterbacks. It hasn't mattered who is under center for them because their defense has been elite.
The Bears have now outgained six of their last eight opponents all by 54 yards or more. The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 92 yards at Green Bay and by 14 yards at Seattle. The Bears have the 5th-ranked unit in total defense at 315.8 yards per game allowed.
Chicago wants revenge from a 9-17 home loss to the Vikings in which they deserved to win on December 20th. They had 370 total yards and held the Vikings to just 193 yards, outgaining them by 177 yards. But they failed time and time again in the red zone. They haven't forgotten, and I like their chances of winning this game outright let alone covering this spread Sunday as they get their revenge.
This is a terrible spot for the Vikings. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their emphatic 37-10 loss at Green Bay last week. Their defense was shredded for 481 total yards and they were without Kirk Cousins due to COVID. I just can't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Bears. They won't care about this game nearly as much as they are leading on in the media. The Bears will show up just as they have every week here down the stretch.
Plays against home teams (Minnesota) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 60-22 (73.2%) ATS since 1983. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-08-22||Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43||Top||51-26||Win||100||32 h 44 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 43
The Dallas Cowboys are playing to win this game to try and improve their seeding in the NFC and sharpen up following a home loss to the Cardinals last week. Their offense is mostly healthy and should put up plenty of points on this Philadelphia Eagles defense to get the OVER.
It's uncertain what the Eagles are going to do. The good news is that they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Gardner Minshew if they decide to bench Jalen Hurts. He is a gun slinger and will be trying to win this game no matter what, so the Eagles should be able to do their part on offense as well.
This Dallas defense is going to be missing some key players including Micah Parsons and possibly Trevon Diggs. Those are not only their two best defensive players, but two of the best defensive players in the NFL this season. The Eagles have all kinds of COVID questions and it's going to hurt their defense more than their offense if players cannot go.
Dallas is scoring 31.0 points per game in its last six games overall. Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall. If the Eagles get to 20 in this game, this should get OVER the total, and I think they will. It will be 28 degrees in Philadelphia Saturday but only 3 MPH winds, so scoring conditions will be just fine.
Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-21 in their first meeting this season for 62 combined points. They also combined for 54 points in their final meeting last season. This total is just way too low Saturday knowing that the Cowboys are playing to try to win, while Philadelphia will be just fine on offense with Minshew if it comes down to it. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-08-22||Bucks v. Hornets OVER 234.5||106-114||Loss||-110||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Hornets OVER 234.5
Two OVER teams square off tonight when the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets rank 1st in pace, 3rd in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency this season. The Bucks also play at a fast tempo and rank 6th in offensive efficiency.
The Hornets combined with the Pistons by 251 points and the Wizards for 245 points in their last two games coming in. They also faced the Bucks earlier this season and gave them a run for their money, only losing 125-127 for 252 combined points as 9-point road underdogs.
The Bucks and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in seven straight games and 228 or more in six of those. I think these teams easily get over this 234.5-point total given the matchup. Three of the last four meetings have seen 240 or more combined points. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-08-22||Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech +1||72-68||Loss||-106||17 h 49 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall. But they have been much more competitive of late now that they have gotten several key players back from injury. They are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games beating Georgia State by 10, losing at Louisville by 3 and losing at Duke by 12 as 18.5-point dogs.
I think this is a great spot to back the Yellow Jackets as they return home and are highly motivated for a victory. It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Notre Dame, which has won four straight coming in against mostly weak competition. The exception was the upset 78-73 home win over North Carolina on Wednesday, which makes the Fighting Irish primed for a letdown.
Notre Dame is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at lowly Pittsburgh by a single point. They lost by double-digits at Illinois and at Boston College. The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game. The Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|01-08-22||Tennessee v. LSU -1.5||Top||67-79||Win||100||17 h 49 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/LSU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on LSU -1.5
The LSU Tigers are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to the Auburn Tigers, who are one of the best teams in the country. Not only are the Tigers winning, they are dominating as they are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game on the season.
The Tigers have been at their best at home where the are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS while winning by a whopping 29.6 points per game. That includes a 65-60 home win over Kentucky last time out. If they can beat Kentucky, they can definitely take down Tennessee.
The Vols have some shaky performances lately with a loss to Texas Tech and a loss to Alabama as well as needing overtime to beat Ole Miss as 17-point home favorites last time out. I think I've seen a lot more holes in Tennessee's game than LSU, which is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Vols struggle to score at times which really showed in the Texas Tech and Ole Miss games.
LSU is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Tennessee with all three wins coming outright as underdogs, including two by double-digits. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet LSU Saturday.
|01-08-22||Northern Iowa +6 v. Missouri State||Top||85-84||Win||100||17 h 48 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +6
Northern Iowa is a sleeper to win the Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers opened 4-7 this season against a brutal schedule and missing some key players early. But now they are full strength and playing up to their potential with this veteran team that returned all five starters.
Indeed, the Panthers have opened 2-1 in MVC play with their only loss coming 69-71 at Bradley back on December 1st. They have won both of their MVC games in blowout fashion in January by beating Evansville 83-61 and Valparaiso 92-65. Now they are ready to take down Missouri State.
The Bears have opened conference season 2-1 as well with a bad 74-79 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites. They have since beaten 61-56 and Bradley 71-69 with a 3-pointer at the buzzer. I think this is a letdown spot for them off that Bradley win at the buzzer.
The Panthers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Bears. The road team is 32-15-1 ATS in the last 48 meetings. Northern Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Dana Ford is 1-9 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game as the coach of Missouri State. Take Northern Iowa Saturday.
|01-08-22||Bradley +14 v. Loyola-Chicago||71-78||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +14
The Bradley Braves are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. The three losses all came by 5 points or less at Toledo by 2, at Indiana State by 5 and at home against Missouri State by 2. This team is playing too well right now to be catching 14 points from Loyola-Chicago.
This is a bad spot for the Ramblers. They are coming off a 79-74 win over San Francisco on a neutral on Thursday. So they have had just one day to get ready for Bradley and there is travel involved. The tough spot will make it very difficult for them to get margin on the Braves today as they are a tired team right now.
Each of the last nine meetings in this series were decided by 13 points or fewer. That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Braves pertaining to this 14-point spread. Bet Bradley Saturday.
|01-08-22||Nebraska +7.5 v. Rutgers||65-93||Loss||-105||13 h 47 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7.5
Nebraska has impressed me in its last two games taking Ohio State to overtime as 9.5-point underdogs and covering in a 12-point loss at Michigan State as 14.5-point dogs. The Huskers have opened 0-4 in Big Ten play against a brutal schedule, but now they have a great chance to get their first conference win of the season, and at the very least stay inside this inflated number.
This is a terrible spot for Rutgers. They are coming off a historic win over Michigan 75-67 at home last time out as 3.5-point underdogs. But that is a down Michigan team this year. And this is clearly a letdown spot for them now with lowly Nebraska coming to town.
Nebraska has been a thorn in Rutgers' side in recent meetings. They only lost 72-75 in their last trip to Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs. And they won outright 72-51 as 8.5-point home dogs in their most recent meeting. This Nebraska team is better than those versions, and this Rutgers team is down a few notches this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Nebraska Saturday.
|01-07-22||Hawks v. Lakers -3||118-134||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
The Los Angeles Lakers have gotten healthy of late and are starting to play up to their potential. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the red-hot Grizzlies on the second of a back-to-back by a final of 99-104. They have handled their business at home winning their last three home games by a combined 46 points.
Now they are a short home favorite hosting the Atlanta Hawks. The Lakers got some important rest as they come in having the last two days off last playing on Tuesday. Look for them to put their best foot forward on National TV tonight, and it should be good enough to win and cover this short number.
The Hawks are 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are starting to get healthier, but there are still several question marks with this team in the injury department. Trae Young (28.4 PPG, 9.5 APG), John Collins (17.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Bogdan Bogdonovic (11.7 PPG) are all questionable tonight. Obviously Young and Collins are the big ones because they are their top two scorers. I like the Lakers whether or not they play tonight, if they don't and Young misses a second straight game it would be an added bonus.
The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Hawks are 1-9 ATS as underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points this season. Roll with the Lakers Friday.
|01-07-22||Wolves v. Thunder +6||Top||135-105||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
25* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall despite missing several key players along the way. But they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and get Luguentz Dort back from injury tonight.
I love the spot for the Thunder tonight. This is a home-and-home situation. They will be out for revenge from a 98-90 road loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later, and they are healthier than they were in that first meeting. I expect them to win this game outright, let alone cover the 6-point spread.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have gone 7-5 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This is the perfect letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Thunder again after just beating them two days ago.
Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS after losing three of its last four games this season. The Thunder are 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. Oklahoma City is 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|01-07-22||Wizards +6.5 v. Bulls||Top||122-130||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Washington +6.5
The Washington Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They get some key players back tonight in Spencer Dinwiddie (13.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Aaron Holiday (6.4 PPG) and could be getting back Montrezl Harrell (14.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG), who has been upgraded to questionable.
I love the spot for the Wizards, who will be out for revenge after losing 119-120 as 2-point home underdogs to the Bulls on January 1st less than a week ago. They lost at the buzzer after Kyle Kuzma hit the go-ahead 3-pointer in the closing seconds, only to see DeMar DeRozan to win it. They want this game a lot more than the Bulls do, and motivation is everything in the NBA.
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls. They have won eight straight coming in. They started to show signs of complacency last time out, only beating the depleted Magic 102-98 as 14-point home favorites. I think they will be complacent here as well having just beaten the Wizards last than a week ago.
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Chicago is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games playing on three or more days' rest. I think all this rest actually works against them because they had momentum with that eight-game winning streak. Take the Wizards Friday.
|01-06-22||USC v. California +5.5||Top||77-63||Loss||-110||12 h 58 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California +5.5
The California Golden Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country as Mark Fox is doing a heck of a job with this team. They have gone 9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home. They just beat Arizona State by 24 at home last time out, and they are primed to hand USC its first loss of the season.
The Trojans are overvalued due to their 12-0 start this season. They have only played three true road games and two were wins by less than this margin with a 5-point win at Temple and a 2-point win at Washington State. They also beat lowly Florida Gulf Coast by 17. This will be their toughest road test of the season.
Making matters worse for the Trojans is that they have been off for three weeks with their last game on December 18th due to COVID. There will be a rust factor with them. There is no rust factor for the Golden Bears, who just played ASU on January 2nd and have won five straight coming in.
USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following nine or more consecutive wins. They have failed to cover three of their last four with shaky home wins over Eastern Kentucky, Long Beach State and UC-Irvine all by 12 points or less. California is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Golden Bears are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games. Take California Thursday.
|01-06-22||Long Beach State +27 v. UCLA||78-96||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +27
I love the spot for Long Beach State tonight. They Beach already played at UCLA once this season back on November 15th and lost 79-100 as 26-point underdogs. Now they are 27-point dogs in the rematch.
UCLA probably thinks it can just show up and win tonight. And there will be a rust factor for the Bruins, who have been off since December 11th so nearly a full month. They cannot be trusted to cover this inflated 27-point spread given the spot and the fact that these teams already played once to a 21-point game.
Long Beach State knocked the dust off yesterday with a 90-64 win over Westcliff. That came after their last game was on December 12th and it was a great showing, only losing 62-73 at USC as 24-point dogs. That's a 12-0 USC team right now.
Long Beach State is 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons, including 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss. The Beach are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. The Beach are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four losses coming by 4, 7, 11 and 21 points. Roll with Long Beach State Thursday.
|01-06-22||Celtics v. Knicks +106||Top||105-108||Win||106||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York ML +106
This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 97-99 loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night. Four of five starters played at least 32 minutes last night including over 37 from Tatum, over 35 from Brown and over 33 from Smart.
The Celtics really should be 1-5 SU in their last six games overall as they needed a 14-point comeback in the final five minutes to beat the Magic in overtime as 10-point home favorites. They just aren't playing well right now despite being healthy as the chemistry is just bad with this team.
The Knicks have recently gotten healthy and are starting to play up to their potential. They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall. They will likely be without Kemba Walker tonight, but he is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, just ask the Celtics. They aren't missing much not having him on the floor.
New York is 31-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons, including 20-6 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 during this stretch. Boston is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games vs. teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Knicks Thursday.
|01-05-22||Thunder +7.5 v. Wolves||Top||90-98||Loss||-105||10 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves after going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They are coming off a double-header at the Staple Center where they had a close loss to the Lakers before beating the short-handed Clippers outright. Now they return home and this is a definite flat spot.
The Timberwolves go from being an underdog in 12 of their last 13 games overall to being a 7.5-point favorite against the Thunder. In fact, the Timberwolves haven't been more than a 3.5-point favorite in any of their last 31 games. We'll take advantage and fade them in this hefty favorite role when it's uncertain whether or not D'Angelo Russell or Karl-Anthony Towns will return to the lineup tonight.
What I do know is the Oklahoma City Thunder have been undervalued all season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and now they get three key players back tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley and Tre Mann from COVID. They have won five of their last nine games outright as underdogs and they are a live dog again tonight, especially with their best player in Gilgeous-Alexander back.
The Thunder are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Timberwolves with their lone loss coming by 3 points. Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season. The Thunder are 9-1 ATS after losing three of their last four games this season. Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. a team that allows 108 or more points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest. The Timberwolves are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as home favorites. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks||117-111||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +7.5
The Toronto Raptors have gotten healthy recently and are playing as well as anyone in the NBA. They have gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They beat the Clippers by 8, the Knicks by 15 and the Spurs by 25 in their last three games overall coming in.
Yes, the Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that is being factored too much into this line tonight. Because they won 129-104 over the Spurs, they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter and nobody played more than 32 minutes. They'll have plenty left in the tank tonight, and they won't be lacking any motivation facing the defending champion Bucks.
Milwaukee has played and extremely soft schedule of late with its last four games coming against the Magic (twice), Pelicans and Pistons. They lost outright as 16-point favorites against the Pistons. Their previous two games against better teams in the Celtics (won by 4) and Mavericks (won by 7) were close. They'll be without both Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen tonight among a few others.
The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Milwaukee. Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Rockets v. Wizards OVER 228.5||114-111||Loss||-109||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Wizards OVER 228.5
The OVER is 15-3 in Rockets last 18 games overall. They have allowed 104 or more points in all 18 games. But they are getting it done on the other end by scoring 102 or more points in 19 of their last 21 games overall. They are playing at a fast tempo and playing no defense, making them a perfect OVER team. The OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in all four.
The Washington Wizards are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall. They ahve score 109 or more points in six of their last seven games. But they have allowed 117 or more points in five of their last six. They are coming off two straight high-scoring games with 245 combined points against the Hornets and 239 combined points against the Bulls. It should be more of the same against the Rockets tonight.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The Rockets and Wizards have combined for 250 or more points in four of their last five meetings. Houston is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 120 points or more in three straight games. The OVER is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 games following a loss. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Wizards last seven games following a win. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Pittsburgh +12.5 v. Louisville||Top||72-75||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +12.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. All seven games were decided by 9 points or fewer and that includes games against quality competitive in Virginia, St. John's and Notre Dame as all three of those games were decided by 1 or 2 points.
Louisville has no business being a 12.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh tonight. The Cardinals aren't blowing anyone out other than overmatched non-conference opponents, and even then they only beat Southern by 12 and lost outright to Furman as a 9-point favorite. Their three ACC wins have all come by 5 points or fewer.
Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a home loss. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after committing eight or fewer turnovers last game. Louisville is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games following a road win. The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Davidson v. St. Joe's +4.5||88-73||Loss||-107||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joseph's +4.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Davidson Wildcats. They have gone 9-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. That includes an upset win over Alabama as 9.5-point dogs on a neutral in their last lined game. This is now a huge letdown spot for the Wildcats, and you're paying a premium to back them at this point.
St. Joseph's has quietly put together a nice run itself in going 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Hawks have an upset win over Georgetown as well as an extremely impressive 83-56 win at Richmond as 11.5-point underdogs last time out. They are more than capable of not only covering tonight, but upsetting Davidson.
St. Joseph's is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Davidson. The Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. excellent 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better. St. Joseph's is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game where it had two or fewer steals. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. St. Joseph's is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take St. Joseph's Wednesday.
|01-04-22||LSU v. Kansas State -3.5||20-42||Win||100||116 h 57 m||Show|
15* LSU/Kansas State Texas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -3.5
The Kansas State Wildcats clearly want to be playing in the Texas Bowl. They have everyone available for this game including QB Skylar Thompson, who has been out since November 20th in a loss to Baylor. Thompson means everything to their offense as he is a huge upgrade over backup Will Howard, who completed only 54.5% of his passes in Thompson's absence.
Indeed, Thompson is the leader of this team, and he is also a great player as well. Thompson is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also scoring four touchdowns on the ground. He'll be supported by one of the best defenses in the Big 12 that gives up just 21.1 points per game on the season.
LSU got the big 27-24 upset win over Texas A&M in their regular season finale to send Ed Orgeron out a winner. But now Brian Kelly will be taking his place, and this is a program in transition heading into their bowl game. Offensive line coach Brad Davis will serve as the interim coach, and he is having to deal with a ton of opt-outs and transfers.
LSU will be without QB Max Johnson among others. That's a huge blow as Johnson had a 27-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season. The only scholarship quarterback left on the roster is Garrett Nussmeier, a true freshman who appeared in four games and completed just 50.9% of his passes. LSU is still trying to get a redshirt for him. I just think this team is distracted as a whole right now and doesn't want to be here nearly as bad as the Wildcats, and motivation is everything in bowl games.
Kansas State is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Tulsa +14 v. Memphis||64-67||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14
Memphis is grossly overvalued this season and continues to be here as 14-point favorites over Tulsa. The Tigers are just 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season while battling COVID issues currently. They are getting too much respect after their blowout win at Wichita State last time out.
The Tigers had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games. They lost by 19 to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, lost outright to Murray State as a 10-point favorite and lost outright to Tulane as a 6-point favorite. How can this team be trusted to lay 14 points given those results?
Tulsa is 6-6 this season but all six losses came by 14 points or less, including five by 7 points or fewer. And the Golden Hurricane simply have Memphis' number. Tulsa is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings winning outright as underdogs four times. Tulsa hasn't lost any of its last eight meetings with Memphis by more than 9 points, making for an 8-0 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 14-point spread. Take Tulsa Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Duke||Top||57-69||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +18.5
Georgia Tech was hampered all season by illness and injury. But they are finally fully healthy for the first time and it's starting to show. After beating Georgia State 72-62 as 5-point favorites on a neutral, they gave Louisville a run for its money in a 64-67 loss as 3-point dogs.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets as they are a much better team than their 6-6 record would suggest, they just haven't been healthy. Now they are healthy and ready to give Duke a run for its money tonight. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule.
Few teams have played Duke as tough as Georgia Tech in recent seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Blue Devils. They haven't lost any of their last five meetings with the Blue Devils by more than 13 points. In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 17 points or fewer.
The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Josh Pastner is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia Tech. Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Grizzlies v. Cavs -3||110-106||Loss||-100||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers -3
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. That includes their win in Brooklyn last night as 6.5-point underdogs. That makes this a letdown spot for them after beating the Nets, and they will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.
Cleveland has been grossly undervalued all season. The Cavaliers are 21-16 SU & 25-11-1 ATS in their 37 games this season. They had yesterday off and will be the fresher team. They get one of their best players back from COVID tonight in Darius Garland (19.5 PPG, 7.3 APG), which is huge because they are already without Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio. They are healthier than they have been in a few weeks right now.
Cleveland is 10-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cleveland is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Kentucky v. LSU -2||Top||60-65||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2
The LSU Tigers opened 12-0 before finally suffering their first defeat on the road at Auburn in their SEC opener. Look for them to bounce back tonight at home where they have been dominant all season.
Indeed, the Tigers are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 32.7 points per game. They face a Kentucky team that has only played one true road game this season, losing 62-66 at Notre Dame as 4.5-point favorites.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Kentucky) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet LSU Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Florida State v. Wake Forest -115||54-76||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest ML -115
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 11-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to LSU, Louisville and Miami. They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 19.8 points per game.
Florida State is clearly down this season at 7-4. They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. They lost by 28 at Purdue, were upset as 6.5-point home favorites by Syracuse and were upset as 6.5-point favorites against South Carolina on a neutral. They also only beat Boston by 1 as 17.5-point home favorites during this stretch.
Florida State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games. They have played three true road games this season, losing by 16 at Florida, by 28 at Purdue and only beating a bad NC State team by 2 as 2.5-point favorites. Roll with Wake Forest Tuesday.
|01-03-22||Hawks -5.5 v. Blazers||131-136||Loss||-105||12 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -5.5
The Atlanta Hawks recently got some players back from COVID and they are getting even more back tonight, including Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari and Delon Wright. They already got Trae Young and Clint Capela back. They are getting closer to full strength and should make easy work of the struggling, short-handed Blazers tonight.
The Blazers are 3-14 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They have lost four straight games by 14 points or more. It won't go any better for them tonight as they will be without three starters in CJ McCollum, Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. They could be without Anfernee Simons as well.
Portland is 2-12 ATS as an underdog this season. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games. Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. Take the Hawks Monday.
|01-03-22||Heat v. Warriors OVER 216.5||Top||108-115||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
20* Heat/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 216.5
The Golden State Warriors are back to close to full strength and it showed in their 123-116 win over the Utah Jazz on the road last time out. Look for them to hang a big number on the Miami Heat, who are missing their key defensive player in Bam Adebayo and have taken a step back on defense without him. They are also missing several other key defenders.
The Heat have had to try and outscore teams of late because they have allowed 110 or more points in four of their last five. They have done a good job of it by going 5-1 in their last six games while scoring 113 or more points in five of those six games.
Recent meetings between the Warriors and Heat have topped this 216.5-point total. In fact, each of the last seven meetings have seen 214 or more combined points with six of those seeing 218 or more combined points. They have averaged 226.1 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last seven meetings.
The OVER is 35-15-1 in Heat last 51 games playing on zero rest. The OVER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The OVER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-03-22||Browns v. Steelers +3.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||48 h 5 m||Show|
20* Browns/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5
Ben Roethlisberger has hinted that this will be his final home game. He would love nothing more than to beat the Cleveland Browns one last time and continue his dominance of them. Big Ben is 25-2-1 all-time against the Browns straight up. And we are getting 3.5 points with him and the Steelers at home here where they can still lose by 3 and cover.
This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Cleveland was a 5.5-point closing favorite in the first meeting, losing 15-10 outright to the Steelers at home. Now they are a 3.5-point road favorite and after taking a ton of money already this week as Pittsburgh actually opened the favorite. This despite the Steelers being one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.
Admittedly, the Browns are getting healthier this week and are probably the better team on a neutral. But this line has shifted too much in their direction. Baker Mayfield cannot be trusted as he threw four interceptions against the Packers last week and has been terrible all season as he has battled through injury. I trust Big Ben more, and I trust that it will be a raucous atmosphere for his final home game and his players will have his back as they are fighting for their playoff lives right now.
There's actually a chance the Browns will be eliminated from division contention even before they play this game, which would take the wind out of their sails. They sit at 7-8 this season and in last place in the division. I think there's a good chance Cincinnati (8-7) or Baltimore (8-7) pull the upset this week in their respective games. And Pittsburgh is going to be alive for the division title no matter what happens on Sunday before this game is played.
The Browns haven't won any of their last six games by more than 3 points. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a road loss. The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 division games. Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog. The Steelers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Pittsburgh is 19-0 SU in its last 19 Monday Night Football home games with its last loss in 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.
Note: The Browns did get eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday which is why this line has moved from Cleveland -3.5 to +2.5. I would still take the Steelers as a 15* play at -2.5. Glad we got in early at +3.5 and beat this line move!
|01-03-22||Rockets v. 76ers OVER 219.5||113-133||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/76ers OVER 219.5
The OVER is 14-3 in Rockets last 17 games overall. They have allowed 104 or more points in all 17 games. But they are getting it done on the other end by scoring 102 or more points in 18 of their last 20 games overall. They are playing at a fast tempo and playing no defense, making them a perfect OVER team.
The 76ers figure to hang a big number on them as they recently got all their playmakers back on offense and have now scored 110 or more points in three straight. They should top 120 tonight as the Rockets have allowed 118 or more points in seven straight coming in. The 76ers have allowed at least 101 points in nine of their last 12 and the Rockets should top 100 tonight.
The Rockets and 76ers have combined for at least 226 points in each of their last four meetings. They have averaged 234.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those four meetings.
The OVER is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 games following a loss. The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-03-22||Towson -2.5 v. Drexel||61-65||Loss||-108||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Towson -2.5
Towson is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Tigers have gone 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games this season. Even their four losses were impressive as they lost to Monmouth by 8, Pittsburgh by 4, San Francisco by 10 and Ohio State by 11 while covering the spread in three of those against four quality teams.
Drexel is 5-5 this season with losses to Syracuse by 15, Tulane, Jacksonville State, Princeton and Abilene Christian by 17. The five wins all came against suspect competition in Neumann, St. Joe's, Charlotte, Farleigh Dickinson and Coppin State. Drexel has been off since December 14th due to COVID and will be rusty playing their first game in three weeks.
Towson is +8.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense. Drexel is +1.4 points per game based on the same factor, meaning Towson is 7.5 points better than Drexel on a neutral. So we are getting the Tigers at a discount as only 2.5-point road favorites considering there won't be much of a home-court advantage for the Dragons tonight.
The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. Towson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. Towson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after a win by 10 points or more. Drexel is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good defensive teams that allows 42% shooting or lower. Roll with Towson Monday.
|01-02-22||Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 209.5||95-86||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 209.5
Both teams are missing a ton of players that will have this game being played at a snail's pace and make points hard to come by. Look for a defensive battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks tonight because of it.
The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Tre Mann, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and could be without Luguentz Dort tonight. They just played in a defensive battle in a 95-80 win over the Knicks last time out for just 175 combined points.
The Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Trey Burke and could be without Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Frank Ntilikina tonight. They just combined for 189 and 208 points in their last two games, both against the Kings who are a great offensive team and terrible defensive team.
The UNDER is 11-4 in Mavericks last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Thunder last eight games overall. The Thunder are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 212.5||Top||104-108||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 212.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be without their top three guards in Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio and Darius Garland tonight. The Indiana Pacers are going to be without their PG as well in Malcolm Brogdon as well as two other key guards in Jeremy Lamb and Chris Duarte.
Because of these absences due to COVID or injury, both offenses are going to be out of sync. Points are going to be hard to come by and this is going to be a defensive battle with the offenses run through their big men more than normal. It will be slowed down to a snail's pace.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Pacers last 11 games as underdogs. The UNDER is 11-2 in Pacers last 13 road games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Pacers last eight games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 12-5 in Cavaliers last 17 home games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. Cleveland is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Lions +7 v. Seahawks||Top||29-51||Loss||-101||99 h 43 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +7
I faded the Seahawks with success last week as the Bears won outright as 7-point underdogs at Seattle. I'm fading the Seahawks again for a number of the same reasons this week. They are 5-10 this season and will finish with a losing record for the first time with Russell Wilson. Seattle won't be going to the playoffs, and they are simply playing out the string now with zero motivation. They can't be laying 7 points to the Detroit Lions given their lack of motivation.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL as it is. They rank 31st in total defense at 385.5 yards per game allowed. They are 29th in total offense at 305.2 yards per game. They are getting outgained by over 80 yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL this season.
The Lions continue to fight every week. They were without Jared Goff last week and covered in a 16-20 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point dogs. They actually outgained the Falcons by 84 yards and should have won. There was a chance they would get Goff back this week, but even without him they'll be able to run the football as they have a healthy De'Andre Swift back at RB.
The Lions are much better than their 2-12-1 record and continue to show up every week for Dan Campbell. They have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have only lost once by more than 4 points during this run.
The Lions have rushed for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games. They have one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the NFL. You can definitely run on the Seahawks as they give up 115 rushing yards per game. Detroit's defense is good enough to keep them in this game as well. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Lions will show up this week, and I don't think the same can be said for the Seahawks. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|01-02-22||Richmond v. St. Louis -2.5||Top||69-76||Win||100||4 h 39 m||Show|
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5
The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the best mid-majors in the country. They are 8-4 this season with their four losses coming to Memphis, UAB, Belmont and Auburn with the latter three losses all coming by 5 points or less. They also beat Boise State on the road and Boston College at home along with solid wins over Stephen F. Austin and Illinois State on a neutral.
Richmond is overvalued this season. The Spiders have lost almost all of their step up games against Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State. Five of their last six wins have come by single-digits. They finally ran out of luck last time out, getting blasted 56-83 as 11.5-pint home favorites against St. Joseph's, failing to cover the spread by 38.5 points.
Saint Louis is +12 points per game based off what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, while Richmond is +9 points per game based on the same criteria. That means Saint Louis is 3 points better on a neutral, so they aren't even factoring in the huge home-court advantage for the Billikens today.
Richmond is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls. The Spiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where they made 28% of their shots or worse. The Billikens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after having lost two of their last three games. Saint Louis is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 home games. Bet Saint Louis Sunday.
|01-02-22||Bucs v. Jets OVER 45.5||28-24||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Jets OVER 45.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs should get Mike Evans back this week. They have been scoring at will regardless of who has been in the lineup. The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games overall. They should get to 30 here to help pave the way for us cashing this OVER.
The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 32nd in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 32nd in total defense at 391.3 yards per game. They are 31st against the run at 141.3 yards per game and 28th against the pass at 250.0 yards per game. The Bucs are going to be able to name their number on the Jets.
New York has shown some life on offense in recent weeks in scoring 26 points against the Jaguars and 24 against the Dolphins. They should do their part to get this OVER against a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing several key players this week. They have three cornerbacks either questionable or doubtful. They will for sure be without two of their best pass rushers in Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as well.
Bruce Arians is 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Tampa Bay. Arians is 16-4 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders in all games as a head coach. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a double-digit road win. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Bucs last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 9-3 in Jets last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Eagles -4.5 v. Washington Football Team||20-16||Loss||-106||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 8-7 on the season and knocking on the door of making the playoffs. They have a lot to play for right now and that motivation is a big reason I am backing them as short road favorites over Washington this week.
Philadelphia is very close to being on a 6-0 run. Its only loss came when it committed four turnovers against the Giants on the road in a 7-13 loss, losing the turnover battle 4-0. They avenged that loss last week in a 34-10 home win over the Giants. They also beat the Broncos by 17, the Saints by 11, the Jets by 15 and Washington by 10 during this run so all five wins have been by double-digits.
Philadelphia was a 10-point home favortie against Washington two weeks ago in that 27-17 win that was even more dominant than the final score showed. They racked up 519 total yards on Washington and outgained them by 282 yards. They should be more than 4.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment down.
Washington has zero home-field advantage right now because they are 6-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind knocked out of their sails by the Eagles two weeks ago, and that showed last week as they came back and got blown out 56-14 by the Cowboys. They gave up 505 more yards to the Cowboys and were outgained by 240 yards. They were seen fighting on the sidelines. This team just wants the season to be over right now.
While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, the Football Team has a ton of injuries and COVID issues which is a big reason they have struggled so badly of late. They will be without RB Antonio Gibson among several others this week against the Eagles. I just don't see them showing up this week, and even if they do they aren't good enough to hang with Philadelphia.
Washington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Football Team is 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Plays on favorites (Philadelphia) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a bad defensive team (27 PPG or more), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|01-02-22||Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||17 h 54 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bengals AFC No-Brainer on OVER 50.5
Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL that boast two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. These are two of the healthiest offenses in the NFL right now, which is why they are both humming.
Both teams have all of their key playmakers on offense as Travis Kelce returns for the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has now scored 39.3 points per game in its last three games as it has entered playoff mode trying to get that all-important top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. They won't be holding anything back on offense this week.
Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week in leading the Bengals to a 41-21 victory. He is going to have to be on top of his game to try and match Mahomes and company score for score, and I think he'll be up to the test in a shootout.
The Chiefs have benefited from playing a lot of terrible offenses lately. The one exception was the Chargers, who had 28 points and 428 total yards against them even though they came with zero points three times inside the Kansas City 5-yard line. The Bengals have a ton of injuries on defense right now that are going to make them soft as butter and give them almost zero chance to slow down the Chiefs.
The OVER is 5-1 in Chiefs last six January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five vs. AFC opponents. The OVER is 7-0 in Bengals last seven January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games following a win. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-22||Warriors +5 v. Jazz||Top||123-116||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Jazz NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz off six straight victories. That includes their 120-108 home win over the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Golden State Warriors tonight.
Meanwhile, the Warriors come in on three days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. They will give a big effort here, especially since they have recently gotten a lot healthier with Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins returning to the lineup. This is arguably the best team in the NBA when healthy and they should not be catching 5 points to the Jazz given the favorable spot for them and the terrible one for the home team.
Utah is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games following a division game. Golden State is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Golden State is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall. Utah is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Jazz are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games. They are getting way too much respect from the books of late, including tonight. Roll with the Warriors Saturday.
|01-01-22||Baylor v. Ole Miss -120||21-7||Loss||-120||44 h 42 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Ole Miss Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss ML -120
You just have to love Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. He has decided to play in this game despite the likelihood that he could be the top QB drafted in the NFL this spring. He is a gamer, and he played through injury at the end of the season. Corral should be has healthy as he has been in a long time and ready to put on a showcase for NFL scouts against Baylor in the Sugar Bowl.
"It never crossed my mind to sit out the game," Corral said. "I'm healthy, I'm going to give these guys everything I got til it's over." I think having that continuity, plus Lane Kiffin returning next season gives the Rebels huge motivation heading into this game. DE Sam Williams, who set a school record with 12.5 sacks, will also play for Ole Miss, which has no opt-outs for the New Orleans classic.
Corral leads a Ole Miss offense that is 4th in the country at 506.6 yards per game and scores 35.9 points per game. Corral is completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,333 yards with a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 597 yards and 11 scores. He will be the best player on the field by far. And he'll be supported by an underrated Ole Miss defense that gave up 25.0 points per game this season despite the offense playing at such a fast tempo.
Baylor's season is a success no matter what happens in this game. They pulled off the shocking 21-16 upset of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship after getting goal-line stand in the final seconds. They won that game despite gaining just 242 yards on offense and getting outgained by 91 yards. They benefitted from four Oklahoma State turnovers. They had barely beaten a bad Texas Tech team 27-24 at home as 14-point favorites the week prior. Their luck runs out in the Sugar Bowl against this better Ole Miss team.
Ole Miss is 12-2 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 bowl games. Baylor is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. Ole Miss is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as a favorite. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Ole Miss is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|01-01-22||Spurs v. Pistons UNDER 224.5||116-117||Loss||-110||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pistons UNDER 224.5
This will be the 2nd meeting in a week between the Spurs and Pistons. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I look for this game to go well UNDER this 224.5-point total because of the familiarity and a few other reasons.
I just don't know how the Pistons are going to score enough points to get this game over the total. They have 12 players out due to injury or COVID, including their two best scorers in Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham. They only managed 85 points last time out against the Knicks while being short-handed.
The Spurs aren't going to be looking to push the tempo much because they are a tired team. They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-118 loss in Memphis last night. That came after a 104-110 loss in Salt Lake City the game prior.
San Antonio is 12-4 UNDER in road games this season. Detroit is 27-14 UNDER in its last 41 games when revenging a same-season loss. The UNDER is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or greater (Detroit) - after one or more consecutive unders, a terrible offensive team scoring 104 or fewer points per game against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 points per game are 35-10 (77.8%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|01-01-22||Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State||Top||45-48||Win||100||75 h 28 m||Show|
20* Utah/Ohio State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Utah +4.5
I don't think Ohio State is going to be that motivated even though the Rose Bowl is a New Year's 6 game. They had won eight straight games and looked destined to make the four-team playoff. But a loss to Michigan in the regular season finale cost them a trip to the Big Ten Championship where they would have throttled Iowa just as Michigan did.
Now the Buckeyes have had a ton of opt-outs, which is why this line has dropped. But it hasn't dropped enough as Utah should be favored given their motivational advantage and all the players the Buckeyes will be missing.
They will be without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, who combined for 135 receptions, nearly 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. They will also be without DT Haskell Garrett and OT Nicholas Petit-Frere, fellow projected top picks alongside Olave and Wilson. So they will be without four of their best players.
Utah will be playing in its first Rose Bowl since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, so you know they will be motivated. The Utes are also one of the hottest teams in the nation having won six straight and nine of their past 10 games. They throttled Oregon twice by 31 and 28 points, the same Oregon team that went on the road and beat Ohio State earlier this season.
Utah limited four of its last five opponents to 13 points or fewer. QB Cameron Rising has given the offense a huge boost since taking over for Charlie Brewer. He has thrown for 2,279 yards with an 18-to-5 TD/INT ratio. His dual-threat ability has made this offense more dynamic as he has rushed for 407 yards and five scores while averaging 6.5 per carry.
Kyle Whittingham is 11-3 in bowl games and one of the best bowl coaches ever. He will have the Utes ready for this game, and they are expected to have a big home-field advantage with thousands of fans making the trip to Pasadena. I don't think the same can be said for the Buckeyes and head coach Ryan Day with all of these opt-outs. Utah likely wins this game outright.
Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games. Roll with Utah Saturday.
|01-01-22||Toledo +2 v. Kent State||63-66||Loss||-109||3 h 17 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toledo +2
The Toledo Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC this season. They are 9-3 with all three losses coming on the road to quality competition in Michigan State, Richmond and Oakland. They covered against the first two teams in their road losses.
The Rockets have pretty much been crushing everyone else. They are +7.6 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense. Kent State is only +0.5 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, so the Rockets are 7 points better on a neutral by my numbers and getting 2 points here on the road.
Kent State is just 5-6 this season. The Golden Flashes have losses to Towson State at home by 15 as 6.5-point favorites, Southern U at home as 14.5-point favorites and Central Michigan at home as 16-point favorites. If they're losing to those three teams outright at home, they aren't beating Toledo.
The Rockets are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after going under the total in their previous game. Toledo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Kent State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Take Toledo Saturday.
|01-01-22||Baylor v. Iowa State +8.5||Top||77-72||Win||100||3 h 1 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite their 12-0 start this season. They have upset Xavier by 12 as 9-point dogs, Memphis by 19 as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton by 6 as 5.5-point dogs, and Iowa by 20 as 5-point dogs. They have proven themselves against quality competition.
Yet here they are catching 8.5 points at home to the Baylor Bears. It's time to 'sell high' on Baylor, which won the national championship last year and is off to a 12-0 start of its own this year. There won't be a better time to 'sell high' on them the rest of the season in my opinion than here in their Big 12 road opener against the Cyclones.
Baylor has only had to play one true road game this season. That resulted in a 78-70 win at Oregon as 7.5-point favorites. But that is a down Oregon team this season, and the Bears needed a late surge not only to cover, but to actually win the game straight up. Iowa State is much better than Oregon this season and now catching more points than Oregon was.
Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season. A bad Cyclones team that went 2-22 last year gave Baylor a run for its money twice, losing by 11 as 15.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 24-point road dogs. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-01-22||Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame -1.5||Top||37-35||Loss||-110||572 h 42 m||Show|
25* New Year's 6 Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -1.5
Notre Dame is happy to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. The Fighting Irish lost early in the season to Cincinnati in a bad spot where the Bearcats were coming off a bye while Notre Dame was coming off a physical game against Wisconsin in an impressive 41-13 win. So that head-to-head loss to Cincinnati was likely going to keep them out of the playoff anyway.
Oklahoma State, on the other hand, had a legit shot to make the four-team playoff. But they came up a yard short as they just couldn't score from the 1-yard line late in a 16-21 upset loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game. This is actually a letdown for them having to play in the Fiesta Bowl when they could be in the four-team playoff instead.
The Fighting Irish have rallied around new head coach Marcus Freeman and offensive coordinator Tommy Reese. These two will lead this program for years to come after Brian Kelly left for LSU. You can tell the players love these two guys, and they'll show up for their coaches and play their hearts out in the Fiesta Bowl.
The key to beating Oklahoma State is to force Spencer Sanders to try and throw the football. He's a terrible passer and their passing game is the biggest weakness in this matchup. Notre Dame only allows 3.7 yards per carry and 127 rushing yards per game, so it's going to be tough sledding for this Cowboys offense. Sanders has a 16-to-12 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a turnover machine. His turnovers will be the difference in this game.
Jack Coan protects the football and has had a big season for the Fighting Irish. He is completing 67.6% of his passes with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season. The Fighting Irish will be without leading rusher Kyren Williams, but he only averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season. I don't think his loss is as big as it is being made out to be. The fact of the matter is the Fighting Irish have the better talent across the board.
The Fighting Irish are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with six straight wins by double-digits coming in. Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games. The Fighting Irish are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|12-31-21||Georgia v. Michigan +8||Top||34-11||Loss||-115||236 h 19 m||Show|
20* Georgia/Michigan Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Michigan +8
The Michigan Wolverines have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season while outgaining their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. They remain undervalued as 8-point underdogs to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Not only did Michigan finally get that monkey off their back with their first win over Ohio State (42-27) under Jim Harbaugh, but they avoided the letdown the next week and crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship. That let me know this team is serious about winning a national title, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this big of an underdog to Georgia.
The Big Ten was clearly the stronger of these two conferences and that has played out in the bowl games up to this point. Georgia faced a much easier schedule than Michigan this season. After opening 12-0 against a suspect schedule, the Bulldogs finally stepped up in class and were blasted 41-24 by Alabama while allowing 536 total yards. They were barely punished at all by oddsmakers for that loss as they remain overvalued here laying more than a touchdown to a Michigan team that is every bit as good as Alabama.
Both teams like to run the football and both teams are great at stopping the run. The weakness of both teams is their QB play, but I think it's actually more of an issue for Georgia than it is for Michigan. Cade McNamara has completed 65% of his passes with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season. Stetson Bennett is great at playing from ahead but we saw how bad he was when he had to try to play from behind against Alabama. Bet Michigan Friday.
|12-31-21||Mavs v. Kings UNDER 217.5||112-96||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 217.5
The Sacramento Kings just beat the Dallas Mavericks 95-94 for 189 combined points on Wednesday. Now they meet in Sacramento just two days later and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This one will stay well UNDER the total as well.
Amazingly, the Kings and Mavericks combined for just 189 points despite both teams shooting well from the floor. The Mavericks shot 48% and the Kings 46.9%. But the Mavericks have to play at a snails' pace to have a chance right now with all their are missing.
Indeed, the Mavericks are without Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber and Trey Burke right now due to COVID. They have been smart in staying competitive by slowing down the pace and playing great defense. That will be their formula against the Kings again tonight.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 games overall. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Mavericks last 21 games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-31-21||Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama||6-27||Loss||-110||63 h 2 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Cincinnati Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5
The SEC is getting too much respect in these bowl games, and that includes Alabama. The Crimson Tide are getting a ton of respect after beating Georgia 41-24 in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama was in must-win mode while Georgia didn't need the win to make the four-team playoff, which is why I was on Alabama in that game.
But now the Crimson Tide come back as nearly two-touchdown favorites against a Cincinnati team that has earned the right to be in the four-team playoff. And I think they'll put up a much better fight than some of these other Power 5 teams have against Alabama in the past. The Bearcats played their best football of the season down the stretch with the pressure on.
Indeed, they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games overall. Many thought they would get a test from SMU, but they throttled the Mustangs 48-14 and outgained them by 345 yards. They went on to cover in a 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite and a 35-20 home win over Houston as a 10.5-point favorite in the AAC Championship. They also beat Notre Dame on the road 24-13 earlier this season to prove they could play with the big boys.
Cincinnati has a championship-level defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They allow just 16.1 points, 305 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. They have a veteran dual-threat QB in Desmond Ridder who doesn't make mistakes. Ridder has a 30-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 361 yards and six scores. Alabama's kryptonite has been dual-threat quarterbacks in the past. Think of Deshaun Watson of Clemson and Johnny Manziel and a few others at Texas A&M.
Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage. Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Take Cincinnati Friday.
|12-31-21||Bulls -4.5 v. Pacers||108-106||Loss||-110||5 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5
The Chicago Bulls just got several players back from COVID and are playing like one of the best teams in the NBA right now because of it. They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 5 points or more. That will be enough to cover this 4.5-point spread at Indiana.
The Pacers are really struggling right now in going 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two victories coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pistons and Rockets. Each of their last four losses have come by 8 points or more. They are without Malcolm Brodgon and Chris Duarte right now due to COVID among a few others.
Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Bulls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites. Chicago is 21-11 ATS in all games this season. Take the Bulls Friday.
|12-31-21||Suns -4.5 v. Celtics||Top||108-123||Loss||-110||3 h 15 m||Show|
20* Suns/Celtics Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix -4.5
The Phoenix Suns are 27-7 this season and in much better shape than the Boston Celtics right now in the COVID and injury department. They have five of their top six scorers available for this game against the Celtics with the exception behind De'Andre Ayton, who they have managed to play well without anyway.
The Boston Celtics will be without their best player in Jayson Tatum (25.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG) and their third-leading scorer in Dennis Schroder (16.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) today. Boston has lost three straight coming in, including an 82-91 upset home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point favorites last time out.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against an opponent that is off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. They won 111-90 at home in their first meeting this season. Bet the Suns Friday.
|12-30-21||Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6||13-20||Win||100||46 h 16 m||Show|
15* ASU/Wisconsin Las Vegas Bowl BAILOUT on Wisconsin -6
Wisconsin is one of the most underrated bowl teams this season. Their 8-4 record doesn't show how good this team really was this season. And their upset loss to Minnesota in the finale has them pissed off and undervalued coming into this Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State.
"Obviously, the regular season didn't end the way we would've liked it," Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said. "But I go back to the fact that this group truly does enjoy each other. They care about each other, and we've got one game that we can play and one more opportunity. I think for all those reasons, it means a lot to them."
The Badgers led the nation in total defense at 240.8 yards per game and were 6th in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game. This is the best unit on the field and it's not close. The Badgers outgained their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play on the season. That is the sign of an elite team.
Arizona State's suspect offense is going to struggle to do anything against this Wisconsin defense. QB Jayden Daniels was a big disappointment this season accounting for only 16 total touchdowns. He had a 10-to-9 TD/INT ratio through the air. The Sun Devils rely heavily on the run to move the football as they average more rushing yards than passing. That isn't going to work against a Wisconsin defense that gives up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.2 per carry.
Making matters worse for this ASU offense is that they will be without their best playmaker on offense and each of their top two rushers. They will be without RB Rachaad White and his 1,006 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, and backup RB DeaMonte Trayanum and his 402 rushing yards and six scores. Defensively, they will be without their top two cornerbacks in Chase Lucas and Jack Jones as they opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Wisconsin should have all hands on deck as they have no opt-outs up to this point.
Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. Arizona State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. I'll gladly side with the Big Ten over the Pac-12 in almost any bowl game blindly, but this one checks all the boxes for sure. Take Wisconsin in the Las Vegas Bowl Thursday.
|12-30-21||Denver +15 v. Oral Roberts||66-83||Loss||-110||9 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +15
Denver is much better than its 5-10 record would indicate. Eight of the 10 losses have come by 14 points or more. And I fully expect them to stay within 15 points or Oral Roberts as this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pioneers.
Denver is only getting outscored by 3.8 points per game on the season. The Pioneers are actually only -1.5 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. Compare that to Oral Roberts and we have an easy play here on Denver.
Indeed, Oral Roberts is only +3.1 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. So the Golden Eagles are only +4.6 points per game better than Denver on a neutral based on my numbers. So they shouldn't be 15-point home favorites here.
The Pioneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog. The Pioneers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds. Oral Roberts is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more. The Pioneers are 7-0 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Roll with Denver Thursday.
|12-30-21||South Alabama -2 v. Texas-Arlington||87-89||Loss||-105||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -2
South Alabama is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Jaguars are 10-3 this season and 7-2 ATS in lined games. They are +8.3 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.
UT-Arlington has been a huge disappointment this season at 4-7 SU & 3-6 ATS. They are -2.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. So that means South Alabama would be 11.2 points per game better than UT-Arlington on a neutral.
So we are getting tremendous value on the Jaguars as only 2-point road favorites here. Kenpom has South Alabama roughly 7 points better on a neutral. Close road losses to Alabama by 5 and Wichita State by 6 as 20.5 and 12.5-point dogs, respectively, shows what the Jaguars are capable of. Arlington lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 9 to Oral Roberts, by 19 to Utah State and by 28 to North Texas.
Arlington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a home win. The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Mavericks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Arlington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. Take South Alabama Thursday.
|12-30-21||South Dakota State -2 v. North Dakota State||90-86||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* SDSU/NDSU Summit League ANNIHILATOR on South Dakota State -2
South Dakota State +8.4 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. North Dakota State is actually -0.6 points per game based on what their opponents normally allow on offense and defense.
That means I have South Dakota State 9 points better than North Dakota State on a neutral. So getting them as only 2-point road favorites here against North Dakota State is a huge discount. Kenpom also has the Jackrabbits nearly 9 points better on a neutral.
The Jackrabbits have also played the tougher schedule facing the 144th-ranked slate compared to North Dakota State and the 264th-ranked slate. The Bison are getting too much respect for their 7-0 home record against Concordia-St. Paul, Tarleton State, Idaho, Northland, CS-Northridge, Indiana State and South Dakota. This will be by far their stiffest home test of the season.
North Dakota State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 85 points or more. The Bison are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. explosive offensive teams that average 84 or more points per game. The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss. South Dakota State is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bison are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Roll with South Dakota State Thursday.
|12-30-21||Michigan -2.5 v. UCF||Top||71-85||Loss||-110||8 h 0 m||Show|
20* Michigan/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines after a shaky 7-4 start to the season against a brutal schedule. They are better than they have shown thus far, and I look for them to handle their business in their final game before the new year.
UCF has struggled when stepping up in class. They lost at home to Oklahoma and on the road to Auburn by 17. This will be one of their toughest tests of the entire season, and it's basically in the pick 'em price range where Michigan just has to win to cover.
Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game. UCF is 2-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game. The Wolverines are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites. The Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Take Michigan Thursday.
|12-30-21||Purdue v. Tennessee -5.5||Top||48-45||Loss||-117||39 h 47 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Tennessee Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Tennessee -5.5
Tennessee is excited to be playing in a bowl game in the first season under Josh Heupel. They will be well-represented in Nashville in the Music City Bowl, so it will be a nice home-field advantage for them. And I expect a big effort for the Volunteers, who have won four straight bowl games coming in.
All five of Tennessee's losses came against teams that are now ranked or were ranked at the time they played them. Their only losses came to Pittsburgh (by 7), Florida, Ole Miss (by 5), Alabama and Georgia. They have been through the gauntlet and their numbers are very impressive.
Tennessee puts up 38.8 points per game, 458.6 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense. Hendon Hooker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 69% completion percentage and a 26-to-3 TD/INT ratio to go along with 561 rushing yards and five scores. Their defense is very underrated as they give up just 5.2 yards per play, outgaining teams by 1.3 yards per play on the season.
Purdue had a great season and would give Tennessee a run for its money at full strength. But the fact of the matter is the Volunteers are nowhere near full strength. They will be missing their best player on offense and their best player on defense. WR David Bell is sitting out after finishing with 93 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns this season. DE George Karlafitis is also opting out as he will likely be a TOp 5 pick in the NFL Draft.
If being without Bell and Karlafitis wasn't enough, the Boilermakers will also be without offensive lineman Greg Long, CB Dedrick Mackey and WR Milton Wright. The Wright loss is even bigger due to the loss of Bell. Wright was their second-leading receiver with 57 receptions for 732 yards and seven touchdowns. So that's 150 receptions, 2,018 yards and 13 touchdowns combined between them gone. They already have a weak offense, and they will have a hard time keeping up with Tennessee without these guys. Bet Tennessee in the Music City Bowl Thursday.