20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2 

The Brooklyn Nets have turned it around by winning three straight.  They still trail the Pistons by a half-game in the East, and now they host the Pistons tonight.  The situation really favors the home favorite Nets in this one. 

Brooklyn comes in playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Meanwhile, Detroit will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 10 days.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated, more rested team at home tonight. 

The Pistons couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are currently after going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them now, especially considering how tough a spot this is for them. 

Brooklyn is 15-5 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Detroit is 8-21 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Brooklyn is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Nets Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2 

The South Florida Bulls have been one of the best surprise stories in college basketball this season.  Not much was expected of them, and they’ve managed to go 18-11 and compete with the top teams in the American Athletic.  They’d love to cap off a great regular season with one final win here at home on Senior Day. 

I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from SMU, which appears to have packed it in here down the stretch. The Mustangs are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming at home against UConn.  Three of their last four losses have come by double-digits.  At 13-16 on the season now, they just don’t have much to play for today. 

The Bulls are 14-4 at home this season, while the Mustangs are just 2-7 in true road games.  The Bulls also get an extra day of rest and preparation as they last played on Wednesday, while the Mustangs last played at Houston on Thursday.  And off that Houston loss, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face South Florida today after facing the top team in the conference just a few days ago. 

SMU is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Mustangs are 2-9 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  SMU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Bulls are 15-5 ATS int heir last 20 games following a SU win.  Take South Florida Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +1 

The Miami Heat are balling out right now as they try and cling on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including upset wins over the Warriors and Hornets, and they’re only loss during this stretch came on the road against red-hot Houston by 3 as 9-point dogs. 

A big reason for the Heat’s recent resurgence has been health.  They are now as healthy as they’ve been all season.  Point guard Goran Dragic has returned to the lineup and made all the difference in the world for this team.  They are clearly clicking offensively now, scoring 114-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

The Raptors have been big money burners since losing Fred VanVleet to injury.  He’s one of the most valuable backup point guards in the NBA, and they miss him badly.  And now the Raptors are going to rest Kawhi Leonard today, which should make Miami’s job a whole lot easier. 

The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Toronto is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Raptors are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Heat.  Take the Heat Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers return home today highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses at Chicago and Houston.  Now they’re back home, where they are 25-9 on the season and outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

Plus, the 76ers are expected to get Joel Embiid back from an eight-game absence, which has been the main reason for their struggles of late.  And the Pacers have some injury concerns of their own as Victor Oladipo is out for the season, while Domantas Sabonis, Tyreke Evans and Alize Johnson are all questionable. 

Philadelphia is 26-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Indiana is 3-13 ATS in road games when revenging loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 216 

This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER.  The Bulls and Pistons are in a home-and-home situation here after just playing on Friday in Chicago.  Now they are playing on Sunday in an early start time at 12:00 EST in the rematch, and they’ll surely still be groggy, which favors the UNDER. 

These teams combined for 216 points in that meeting Friday despite Chicago shootings 51.2% and Detroit shooting 54.2%.  What are the chances they shoot that good again?  The answer is not very good.  I expect this game to be played at a snail’s pace just as that one was, and for it to easily stay UNDER the 216-point total.  Familiarity favors UNDERS, and these home-and-home situations allow teams to get familiar with one another. 

Chicago is 21-11 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 when playing on one days’ rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Houston/Cincinnati CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -2 

The Houston Cougars have already been assured at least share of the AAC Title.  They won’t be nearly as motivated Cincinnati, which needs a win to claim a share of the title with Houston.  That’s because the Bearcats suffered a loss at UCF last time out to fall a game behind the Cougars in the conference. 

"It would be awesome. It's a big game,” head coach Mick Cronin said. "You've worked all year to have a chance to share the regular season championship. Sometimes winning can get minimized, especially when you've done a lot of it. I can assure you that everyone else in our league wishes they were playing for a share of the title on Sunday.  That's your goal. You can't win it if you're not in it. We have chance to be in the title fight, even if it's only for a share of a half of one. It's huge."

Now, the Bearcats are back home here on Senior Day looking for revenge on the Cougars after losing to them 58-65 on the road in their first meeting this season.  I like their chances to get revenge at home this time around considering they are 16-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game. 

I also think we are getting a discount on the Bearcats today because they have been overvalued for quite some time now, but now they are no longer overvalued after going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall coming in.  Houston is the team that’s overvalued currently today. 

Cincinnati is a perfect 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Houston.  Plays on home teams (Cincinnati) - after failing to cover the spread in seven or more consecutive games are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Cincinnati Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston -6 

The Lakers are done for.  They faced four basically must-win games in their last four, and they went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS.  They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Considering they were max motivated and lost all four, it’s not a good sign for this team. 

Now, the Lakers have publicly stated that they will limit LeBron James’ minutes the rest of the way.  That’s because they are basically eliminate from playoff contention now unless they win out.  It’s a smart move by them because at this point getting the best draft pick they can is the priority. 

Conversely, the Boston Celtics are trying to move up in the Eastern Conference standings.  They have gotten it together by winning three of their last four, including a 33-point win at Golden State.  This team is playing for something, while the Lakers are not.  So I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in the Celtics tonight. 

Boston is 26-12 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Lakers are 4-15 ATS after allowing 105-plus points in five straight games this season.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan +4 

The Michigan Wolverines took the Michigan State Spartans lightly in their first meeting this season, losing 70-77 as 4.5-point home favorites.  It was one of the Spartans’ first games without Nick Ward, so I think the Wolverines just thought they could show up and win. 

Now, learning from their mistakes in the first meeting, I fully expect the Wolverines to win outright in the rematch.  Getting 4 points is just an added bonus.  The fact remains that the Spartans are without two of their top three scorers in Nick Ward and Joshua Langford.  If both of these teams were max motivated, the Wolverines would win 9 out of 10 times minimum in their current state. 

Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Wolverines are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Michigan is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Michigan State.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Michigan Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1 

The injury bug keeps hurting the Drake Bulldogs.  They’ve overcome a lot of adversity this season with the injuries, but this is simply too much to overcome now.  Their great season ends today against Northern Iowa Saturday. 

The Bulldogs lost second-leading scorer Nick Norton (14.0 PPG) early in the season.  They lost D.J. Wilkins (11.1 PPG), their 4th-leading scorer, in their regular season finale.  And now leading scorer Nick McGlynn (15.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) suffered an injury yesterday in the win over Illinois State that is likely to keep him out today.  Missing 3 of their top 4 scorers now, the Bulldogs are done for. 

Northern Iowa is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  The Panthers are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  One of the losses was a 1-point loss against the best team in the MVC in Loyola-Chicago.  And four of the five wins have come by double-digits. 

Northern Iowa is 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 7-1 ATS when revenging a road loss this year.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Northern Iowa is 15-4-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings, consistently having Drake’s number in this in-state rivalry.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier -2.5 

The Xavier Musketeers are making a big run to close the season to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Butler.  They have won at Providence, Seton Hall and St. John’s during this stretch, while also beating Creighton and Villanova at home. 

Now, the Musketeers are up against St. John’s again after just beating them by 11 on the road.  The Red Storm are dealing with some injuries and suspensions right now, which is why they have struggled down the stretch.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 19 at Providence, by 11 at home to Xavier and by 9 at DePaul. 

Xavier is 9-2 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Xavier Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple PK 

The motivation is at an all-time high for the Temple Owls today.  They are currently on the ‘Last 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi.  They need a win to get in the NCAA Tournament, and a victory over Top 25 UCF would do the trick. 

Not to mention, it’s Senior Day, meaning it’s the final home game for leading scorer Shizz Alston Jr. (19.6 PPG) and company.  And it’s Fran Dunphy’s final season at Temple.  So the Owls couldn’t possibly be more motivated than they are right now. 

This is a massive letdown spot for UCF.  The Owls punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back wins over Houston and Cincinnati, the top two teams in the conference.  There’s no question they have been celebrating those two wins big-time the past few days, and they will come out flat Saturday against a Temple team that simply wants it more. 

The Owls are 12-2 at home this season.  The Knights are way overvalued right now after going 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.  We’ll ’sell high’ on them today and back the team that needs the win more.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

20* San Diego/Santa Clara CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +6 

I love the spot for Santa Clara tonight.  They had yesterday off while San Diego had to play Portland.  Now the Broncos come in rested and ready to go tonight against the Toreros, and somehow they are catching points in this WCC second-round matchup. 

Catching points despite the fact that Santa Clara won 68-56 as identical 6-point home dogs in their first and only meeting this season already.  After already beating the Toreros by 12, and being rested while San Diego is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, this is a huge line mistake tonight. 

Of course, the Broncos have been undervalued all season, especially down the stretch.  They are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Santa Clara is 14-4 ATS off an ATS win this season.  The Toreros are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Broncos are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.  The underdog is 23-3-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Bet Santa Clara Friday. 

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 

This is such a favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers, who are already playing their best basketball of the season right now and getting no respect from oddsmakers.  The Clippers are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Jazz and Nuggets. 

Now, the Clippers come in on three days’ rest after last playing and beating the Lakers 113-105 on the road on Monday.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight back at the Staples Center, where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games winning by 27, 9 and 21 points. 

The Thunder are playing terrible right now, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  And it doesn’t get any easier for them tonight as they are in their toughest spot of the season tonight.  Not only will the Thunder be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they are coming off an overtime win at Portland last night. And they will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here.  They won’t have anything left in the tank for the rested Clippers tonight. 

The Thunder are 2-10 ATS off a division game this season.  The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in Friday games this season.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Marymount -4.5 

I love the spot for Loyola-Marymount (20-10) against Pepperdine (14-17) tonight.  The Lions did not have to play yesterday and have been off since March 2nd, while the Waves had to play a hard-fought 61-53 win over Pacific last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in the WCC Tournament second-round matchup. 

Loyola-Marymount closed the regular season in impressive fashion by winning their final three games, including a 63-56 road win at Pacific and a 74-69 upset road win at San Francisco as 7.5-point dogs.  This veteran team that returned all five starters is locked in and ready to make a run in the WCC Tournament. 

Loyola-Marymount is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Waves are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Take Loyola-Marymount Friday.

15* 76ers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now due to their six-game winning streak.  We’ll ’sell high’ on them here tonight, especially off back-to-back upset road wins over Boston and Toronto.  This is clearly a letdown spot for them tonight, and they are laying too big of a price. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the 76ers, who are still without Joel Embiid and coming off a last-second loss to the Bulls.  They also blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost to the Warriors 117-120 recently.  But they’ve won three of their last five outside of those two toss-up losses.  In fact, the 76ers have only lost by more than 3 points once in their last 11 games overall.  There’s a ton of value on the 76ers tonight catching 7.5 points. 

The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They won by 28 at home in their first meeting this season, and also won by 8 on the road as 7-point dogs in their final meeting last season.  Their two losses came by 1 point at home as 3-point dogs and by 5 at home as 6.5-point dogs.  The Rockets haven’t been able to put them away. 

Houston is 10-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The 76ers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 Friday games.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -7 

One of the best-kept secrets since the All-Star Break is how the Dallas Mavericks are tanking.  If they pick in the Top 5 of the NBA draft, they get to keep their pick.  Otherwise they lose it.  They are trying desperately to get in the Top 5, and it’s showing with their play on the floor. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  All eight losses have come by 9 points or more.  That includes a recently 30-point home loss to Memphis and a 39-point road loss to Brooklyn.  If that’s not a sign of a team that’s tanking, I don’t know what is. 

The Magic will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses to the Cavs and 76ers.  That followed up their best stretch of the season in which they went 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games.  This is a Magic team fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the East, just one game back of the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orland) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The favorite is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Friday.

15* MVC Tournament No-Brainer on Illinois State -5 

Illinois State made the MVC Championship Game last season.  They returned four starters from that team, but they have been disappointing at 16-15 this year.  Still, I think this team will be able to flip the switch now that the MVC Tournament starts tonight.  Look for them to use their veteran experience to blow Evansville out of the building tonight. 

The Redbirds have shown what they are capable of in the regular season when they are fully focused.  Drake and Loyola-Chicago tied for first in the conference.  Well, Illinois State went 3-1 in its four meetings with Drake and Loyola, the best the MVC has to offer. 

Evansville is a young team with just one returning starter that really played like a young team down the stretch.  Indeed, the Purple Aces closed the season going 2-11 SU & 4-9 ATS in their final 13 games.  Their only two wins during this stretch came against Valparaiso, another team that is struggling as much as they are. 

Illinois State simply owns Evansville.  The Redbirds are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Purple Aces with seven of their eight wins coming by 6 points or more.  And that’s all it will take for them to cover tonight as 5-point favorites.  The Redbirds are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss.  The Purple Aces are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off an ATS win.  Take Illinois State Thursday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 223 

This is the 4th and final meeting of the season between Indiana and Milwaukee.  The first three saw 219, 210 and 203 combined points, progressively getting lower scoring as the season has gone on.  And I think the books have really missed their mark in setting this total too high tonight. 

The Bucks and Pacers have now combined for 223 or fewer points in each of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 223-point total set.  They have averaged just 203.3 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight’s posted total. 

And keep in mind that Indiana doesn’t have leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8 PPG) or 3rd-leading scorer Domantas Sobonis (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Points will be hard to come by for the Pacers.  And these teams are so familiar with one another now, which explains why every time they face off the combined points keeps getting lower and lower.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (Milwaukee) - a good team outscoring their opponents by 9-plus points per game, in March games are 29-10 (74.4%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers’ last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK 

The Boston Celtics couldn’t possibly be in a tougher spot than they are tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  And they are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors last night.  I always like fading teams after facing Golden State, win or lose, but especially off a win.  Teams just never seem to get up for their next opponent after facing the Warriors. 

The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they’ll be rested and ready to go.  It’s a Kings team that is fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the Western Conference standings.  And the Kings are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games with quietly one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the Celtics and Kings straight up.  The home team is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Sacramento is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Boston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  And it’s a Celtics team that is still not playing well despite that win, going 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  I don’t think they’re magically cured after beating the Warriors. 

Boston is 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The Celtics are just 15-16 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road this season.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Vanderbilt +2 

Well, Vanderbilt is now 0-16 in SEC play this season.  This is their last real good chance to get a conference win because they close at LSU in their finale Saturday.  I look for them to take advantage and get that win at home on Senior Night Wednesday against one of the worst teams in the SEC in Arkansas. 

Adding to Vanderbilt’s motivation tonight is the fact that they only lost 66-69 at Arkansas on February 5th in their first meeting this season.  So this is clearly a Razorbacks team they are capable of beating, and after several near-misses this season, I expect them to finally get over the hump and get their first conference win tonight. 

Arkansas really has nothing to play for.  The Razorbacks are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games overall with their only win coming by a single point at home against Ole Miss.  The Razorbacks are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Oddsmakers are begging you to back them as small favorites here against the winless Commodores, but don’t fall for it.  This ‘baiting' line makes me love Vanderbilt even more tonight. 

Arkansas is 0-6 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last twos seasons.  The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  They just seem to relax in these spots.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation.  And after blowing a 17-point lead at home to the Pelicans and losing 112-115 on Monday, they now get a shot at revenge just two days later.  I look for them to take advantage and get back on track with a blowout road win tonight. 

The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Pelicans, including their 132-111 road win in their first trip to New Orleans back on October 27th.  The Jazz are still 18-7 in their last 25 games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA. 

It’s usually a good spot to fade teams in the first game back home following a road trip, too.  Well, the Pelicans just completed their annual Mardi Gras road trip with 4 road games in 6 days at the Lakers, Suns, Nuggets and Jazz.  They now have to deal with the distractions back home, and they certainly won’t be as motivated to beat the Jazz for a 2nd time in 3 days. 

Utah is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games off a loss.  The Jazz are 19-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to New Orleans.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.  

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5 

The Detroit Pistons are in a great spot tonight.  They are up against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off an upset home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  This is clearly a flat spot for them now. 

The Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and make the playoffs.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over the Nuggets and Raptors.  Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Spurs and Celtics, two of the best home teams in the NBA. 

Detroit comes in on 2 days’ rest, so it will be by far the fresher team.  And the Pistons are taking on a Timberwolves team that is just 9-24 on the road this season.  Minnesota is just 1-8 SU in its last nine road games with its only win coming at the New York Knicks, which is far from impressive against that tanking team.  Detroit is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. 

The Pistons have the Timberwolves’ number, going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 14-4 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +8 

The Iowa State Cyclones are finding it hard to be motivated here down the stretch.  They were recently eliminated from Big 12 title contention.  It’s a big reason why they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have only won two of their last eight games by more than 5 points. 

West Virginia is a team that will give them a battle at home here on Senior Night.  The Mountaineers want revenge from their 68-93 los at Iowa State in which they completely fell apart in the second half.  They recently upset TCU at home, and fought hard in road losses to Baylor and Oklahoma in their last three games. 

West Virginia has won three straight home meetings with Iowa State by 15, 11 and 10 points.  They only lost by 2 and won by 25 in their previous two home meetings with the Cyclones as well.  So, they have outscored Iowa State by a total of 59 points in their last five home meetings, or by an average of 11.8 points per game. 

Iowa State will be without leading scorer Marial Shayok (18.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG), and they could be without starting PG Nick Weiler-Babb (9.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.8 RPG), who is questionable with an injury.  That severely hampers their chances of not only covering this game, but winning it outright as well. 

The Mountaineers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Iowa State 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less.  The Cyclones are 1-8 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off three or more consecutive overs.  West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 20.5 points per game in this spot.  Roll with West Virginia Wednesday. 

15* LSU/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida +1 

The Florida Gators won five straight games, including upset road wins over Alabama and LSU, to put themselves in good position to make the NCAA Tournament.  But then they came out flat against Georgia and lost their last home game.  That loss did them no favors, and they are back on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. 

I fully expect the Gators to come back highly motivated from that loss, especially since it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game of the season.  And they welcome nationally ranked LSU to town and would love to cap the season sweep of the Tigers and prevent them from winning the SEC. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Tigers, who have gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But six of their seven wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.  I think their luck runs out tonight against the Gators. 

LSU is 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are losing by 15.5 points per game in this spot.  LSU is 1-8 ATS when revenging any loss over the last three years as well.  The Tigers are 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last three seasons.  Bet Florida Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Seton Hall +2.5 

This is a huge game for Seton Hall.  The Pirates are currently on the ‘Last 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi.  So they are clinging on to a spot in the big dance.  A win over No. 16 Marquette here would certainly help get them in. 

Adding to the Pirates’ motivation is the fact that they want revenge from a 4-point loss at Marquette, 66-70, as 4.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  If you adjust for home-court advantage, the Pirates should be favored in the rematch.  Instead, they are 2.5-point dogs, a difference of only 2 points from the line in the first meeting. 

I think we are getting extra value on the Pirates because they are coming off three straight losses in toss-up games.  They lost by 1 at home to Xavier, lost in overtime at Georgetown and lost by 8 at St. John’s.  That adds to their motivation off the three straight losses as well. 

Marquette won a ton of close games throughout the season, but they’ve finally fallen short in them in their last two.  They lost by 6 at Villanova and by 6 at home to Creighton as 7.5-point favorites.  And while Marquette played Creighton on Sunday, Seton Hall last played on Saturday against Georgetown.  And extra rest a team gets this late in the season is huge, and the Pirates get an extra day here to prepare for the Golden Eagles. 

Marquette is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a loss.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Steve Wojciechowski is 3-13 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent as the coach of Marquette.  Kevin Willard is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games as the coach of the Pirates.  Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies keep battling night in and night out.  That is evident by the fact that they have only lost one game by more than 6 points in their last nine games, which came on the road on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have upset the Lakers at home and upset the Mavs by 30 on the road here recently, and they only lost by 4 at OKC as 9.5-point dogs last time out after blowing a 13-point lead late. 

It think we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies and ‘sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The betting public is all over them now.  Consider this.  Memphis was only a 5-point road dog at Portland in their last meeting, and now they are 6.5-point home dogs to Portland in the rematch.   

They’re bigger underdogs at home than they were on the road.  That’s an obvious sign that the Blazers are overvalued right now.  Plus, Memphis was a 3-point favorite in its last home meetings with Portland this season.  They won that game 92-83.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers find themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They are on the ‘First 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi.  They could really use a signature win here over No. 11 Purdue to secure their place in the NCAA Tournament tonight. 

Adding to their motivation is the fact that it will be Senior Night, and this is a veteran team led by seniors Jordan Murphy (14.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG) and Dupree McBrayer (9.1 PPG).  The Gophers also want revenge after blowing a halftime lead and a big lead in the 2nd half to eventually lose 63-73 at Purdue in their first meeting this season. 

Purdue comes in overvalued off back-to-back blowout home wins over Illinois and Ohio State.  But it has been a different story for them on the road.  In their last four road games, they lost by 14 at Maryland, only beat Indiana by 2 as 6-point favorites, only beat Nebraska by 3 as 6-point favorites, and needed overtime to beat Penn State as 7.5-point favorites. 

Minnesota is 13-3 at home this season.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog.  The Boilermakers are 4-12 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4 

Quietly, the Texas A&M Aggies are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They’ve gone on the road and upset Missouri by 9 and Arkansas by 7, while also handling their business at home with a 17-point win over Georgia, a 9-point win over Alabama and a 7-point win over Vanderbilt. 

They only lost by 4 at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, only lost by 7 at South Carolina as 4.5-point dogs and competed hard in an 11-point loss at LSU as 10-point dogs.  Now, the Aggies want revenge from that loss at South Carolina, and I think they get it at home here on Senior Night. 

The Gamecocks have packed it in.  They found themselves on the bubble a few weeks ago, but now they’ve lost three straight with a 15-point loss at Mississippi State, a 6-point home loss to Alabama and a 15-point road loss at Missouri.  They know their only shot at making the tournament is to win the SEC Tournament now.  Plus, they are missing their 2nd-best player in A.J. Lawson (13.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.0 APG), who missed last game with an ankle injury and will sit this game out as well. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Aggies are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Gamecocks.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Kansas State/TCU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are tied with Texas Tech for first place in the Big 12 this season.  Win out and they’ll be guaranteed at least a share of the title.  This is their last big hurdle tonight as they host Oklahoma to finish out the season on Saturday. 

I expect this senior-laden Wildcats team to come up big tonight and get yet another huge road win in conference play over faltering TCU.  Kansas State has already gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas and West Virginia in Big 12 play this season.  Their only two road losses came at Kansas and at Texas Tech. 

TCU is quickly playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament.  The Horned Frogs are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS int heir last five games overall with their only win coming by a narrow 3 points at home against Iowa State.  They have lost at home to Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech during this stretch, while also suffering bad road losses at Oklahoma State and WVU. 

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS in conference road games this season.  TCU is 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS off a game as a home underdog over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Big 12 games.  The Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Kansas State Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -1 

The San Antonio Spurs have gotten back on track since returning from their disastrous eight-game rodeo road trip.  They have put together back-to-back blowout home wins and covers over Detroit by 12 as 4.5-point favorites and Oklahoma City by 14 as 5-point favorites. 

Now, the Spurs are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here against the Denver Nuggets.  And it should come as no surprise they’ve turned it around at home considering they are now 24-7 SU & 20-11 ATS at home this season. 

Plus, home-court advantage has been huge in this series as well.  The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Spurs are a perfect 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They basically just have to win to cover as 1-point home favorites tonight. 

The Nuggets come in scuffling a bit with back-to-back upset home losses to Utah as 7.5-point favorites and New Orleans as 13.5-point favorites.  I expect the Spurs to continue their upward trajectory with another win here, while the Nuggets suffer their third straight defeat.   

The Spurs are 17-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  San Antonio is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets, who have lost three straight both SU and ATS to fall to below .500 on the season at 32-33.  They are the team in the playoff hunt here, and they are the one that is likely to bounce back from bad performances. 

The Dallas Mavericks aren’t likely to care nearly as much about their recent bad performances.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by 9 points or more.  They are allowing 114.9 points per game and 47.2% shooting in their last seven games. 

Plays on home favorites (Brooklyn) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent that was also beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. 

Brooklyn is 25-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS when revenging a same-season loss.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* ASU/Oregon State ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -3 

The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win at home on Senior Night.  This is a veteran team that is led by seniors Stephen Thompson Jr. (16.4 PPG, 4.4 RGP) Gilgorje Rakocevic (5.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG).  It’s a big day for these two, and I look for fellow veterans Tres Tinkle (20.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Ethan Thompson (13.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) to try and send them out winners in their final home game. 

Adding to Oregon State’s motivation is the fact that it wants revenge from a tough 67-70 road loss at Arizona State in their first meeting this season.  Now the Sun Devils have to hit the road, where they are just 3-4 in Pac-12 road games this season with their only wins coming against Cal, UCLA and Utah, three of the worst teams in the conference.  They have also lost by 14 at Stanford, lost at USC, lost at Colorado and lost at Oregon by 28. 

The Beavers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The Sun Devils are 5-13-2 ATS int heir last 20 road games.  Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with ASU.  The Beavers are 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Arizona State is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games over the last two seasons.  Roll with Oregon State Sunday.

20* Rockets/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Boston -2 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Boston Celtics, who have lost four of their last five coming in.  But three of those losses came on the road, including two to the top two teams in the East in Milwaukee and Toronto.  And the other loss was at home on the 2nd of a back-to-back against the hot Blazers. 

But the Celtics got back on track with an 11-point home win over the Wizards on Friday.  And they are still 24-9 SU & 20-13 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites here against the Rockets is a huge discount. 

Houston actually has a losing 15-16 SU & 11-19-1 ATS record on the road this season.  The Celtics are 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 6 points or less this season.  Boston is 8-0 ATS after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 11.3 points per game in this spot.  The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* Notre Dame/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -8 

The Louisville Cardinals come in highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost three straight and five of their last six and are now in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament if they don’t finish strong.  I expect a big effort form them here in their final home game, making this Senior Day for the Cardinals. 

Notre Dame will not put up much resistance.  The Fighting Irish are just 2-10 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are 1-7 SU in true road games this season as well.  The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series. 

Louisville is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  Notre Dame is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS win.  The Cardinals are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record.  They will get right against the Fighting Irish today in a blowout home win on Senior Day.  Take Louisville Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5 

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS at home this season.  I think we’re getting a discount on the Mavericks today because they are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule. 

Now they face a Memphis team that they can handle.  The Grizzlies are just 6-23 SU in their last 29 games overall and are playing for nothing but pride.  They are short-handed right now due to all their injuries and the trades they’ve made. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series, especially when the Mavericks have been at home.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Grizzlies, winning by 34, 9 and 4 points.  Dating back further, the Mavs are 35-10 SU & 26-19 ATS in their last 45 home meetings with Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas as well.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis +9.5 

The Memphis Tigers are playing too well right now to be 9.5-point road dogs to Cincinnati.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 26 at Tulane, upsetting Wichita State on the road, and beating Temple by 8 at home as 4-point favorites. 

Now, the Tigers want revenge on Cincinnati after leading nearly the entire way in their first meeting before blowing it in the closing minutes, losing 64-69 at home.  They should be able to at least stay within the number against a Bearcats team that has been massively overvalued down the stretch, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

The Tigers are 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 Saturday games.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS int heir last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Memphis Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown -2 

The Georgetown Hoyas need this win badly.  They are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘last four out’ line, so if they want to make the NCAA Tournament, this is a must-win.  Seton Hall is currently in the tournament if the season were to end today. 

Adding to the Hoyas’ motivation today is the fact that it is Senior Day.  They also want revenge from a 75-90 loss at Seton Hall in their first meeting this season on February 13th. 

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Pirates are 2-10 ATS off a road loss this season.  Seton Hall is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a loss.  Take Georgetown Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +8.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are extremely fortunate they’re not on a five-game losing streak right now.  They lost at home to Maryland and on the road to Ohio State by 20.  And their three wins came in lucky fashion as they hit buzzer-beaters against both Northwestern at home and Rutgers on the road, and they got a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, a game they eventually won. 

As I mentioned, they hit a buzzer-beater to beat Rutgers.  That places the Scarlet Knights in revenge mode, and I really like them catching 8.5 points here today against the Hawkeyes.  This is a Rutgers team that has been grossly underrated here down the stretch, going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Rutgers has a couple of hidden advantages here.  They have two more days to get ready for this game as they last played on February 24th, while Iowa last played on February 26th.  Plus, the Hawkeyes will be without head coach Fran McCaffery, who is serving a two-game suspension along with his son, Colin McCaffery. 

Iowa is 0-6 ATS after a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three seasons.  Rutgers are 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Combine these trends with the fact that Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall, while Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, and we have a perfect 20-0 system in favor of the Scarlet Knights.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -2.5 

Missouri State will be highly motivated for a win here at home on Senior Day.  The Bears trail Drake by just one game for first place in the Missouri Valley.  They want a chance to at least share the conference title, and they also want revenge from a 63-74 loss at Drake in their first meeting this season. 

The Bears have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games overall since that loss to Drake.  And they are coming off a road loss at Illinois State, which only adds to their motivation. 

Missouri State is 18-3 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Drake.  The home team is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Bet Missouri State Saturday. 

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5 

The Tennessee Vols will be highly motivated for several reasons today.  They are tied with Kentucky for first place in the SEC, and they want revenge from their worst loss of the season, which came 69-86 at Kentucky on February 16th just two weeks ago today.  They’ll get their revenge as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

The Volunteers now come in undervalued after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  So we’ll ‘buy low’ on them, and ’sell high’ on the Wildcats, who are quickly becoming a favorite of the betting public.  That’s because they have gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall while only losing outright once during this stretch. 

Kentucky has a key injury that’s getting overlooked.  Reid Tavis (11.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is a senior transfer from Stanford who provides veteran leadership for this team.  Well, he has missed the last two games, and the Wildcats barely survived without him in a 70-66 home win over Arkansas as 15.5-point favorites last time out. They won’t be so fortunate here against Tennessee.  Travis had 11 points and 8 rebounds in their first meeting. 

Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive tams that average 77 or more points pre game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Vols are 16-0 at home this season, winning by 21.5 points per game, and they basically just have to win to cover today.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6 

The Indiana Hoosiers continue to fight hard.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by only 2 as 6-point home dogs to Purdue, losing in overtime at Iowa as 7.5-point dogs, and upsetting Wisconsin in overtime as 2.5-point home dogs. 

Now, the Hoosiers face a Michigan State team that they already beat 79-75 as 14-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  And it’s a Spartans team that is primed for a letdown off their huge win over rival Michigan last time out, which also has them overvalued. 

But these Spartans are extremely vulnerable now.  They are missing two of their top three scorers in Nick Ward and Joshua Langford, and it’s going to catch up to them sooner rather than later.  They have no business being 6-point road favorites over Indiana without the services of these two. 

Michigan is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a game as a road underdog.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Spartans are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 trips to Bloomington.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

20* Blazers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -5 

The Toronto Raptors are 26-6 at home this season and trying to chase down the Milwaukee Bucks for first place in the Eastern Conference.  I like the value we are getting on the Raptors at home here today as only 5-point favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Blazers, who are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s also a tough spot for the Blazers, who will be playing their 5th straight road game.  They took advantage of a tired Celtics team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out and pulled the upset. 

The task won’t be so easy today against the Raptors, who come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh and ready to go.  They are coming off their own win over the Celtics in blowout fashion by 23.  And the Blazers will be without two key bench players in Evan Turner and Enes Kanter, who has provided a big spark for them since being acquired from the Knicks. 

Toronto beat Portland 130-105 at home last year.  The Raptors are 18-6 ATS in home games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Raptors Friday. 

20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -7 

The Denver Nuggets are now 27-4 SU & 22-9 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game at home.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season and playing as well as basically anyone in the NBA.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those five wins coming by 9 points or more. 

The Utah Jazz are in a tough spot tonight.  They needed a second half comeback to beat the Clippers 111-105 at home last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Nuggets come in rested having yesterday off following their 121-112 home win over the Thunder on Tuesday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Jazz winning all five games by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.2 points per game. 

Denver is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Denver is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss this season, winning by 16.7 points per game in this spot.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* Nebraska/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan -11 

The Michigan Wolverines will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they face the reeling Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Michigan State, their first home loss of the season.  And they’re looking to take out their frustration on the Huskers tonight. 

Nebraska is a vulnerable target as it has gone just 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  This run has basically coincided with the season-ending injury to their most important player in Isaac Copeland.  They played seven of those 11 games at home, and went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in road games with losses to Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue (by 19) and Penn State (by 24).  Now they have to face arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Michigan, and I just don’t see them being able to stay within 11 points. 

Adding to the Wolverines’ motivation is the fact that this will be their final home game of the season, so it’s Senior Night.  The Wolverines have owned the Huskers as well, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with seven of those wins coming by 13 points or more. 

Nebraska is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games after failing to cover 8 or more of its last 10 games.  Michigan is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  The Wolverines are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Wolverines tonight.  Roll with Michigan Thursday. 

15* Xavier/St. John’s Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s -4.5 

St. John’s is 20-8 on the season and on its way to the NCAA Tournament as long as it doesn’t slip up here in the final few weeks of the season.  I expect them to win and cover tonight at home against Xavier and believe we are getting a discount on the Red Storm tonight. 

It’s Senior Night, meaning this will be their final home game of the season.  They want to send out their seniors and their home fans with one final victory at Madison Square Garden in what has been a special season.  They are 13-3 at home this season, so they have been a tough out here. 

Xavier is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  But that followed up a 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch, and this is still a rebuilding team.  The Musketeers are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season.  And you can bet St. John’s will be extra motivated to end a seven-game losing streak to the Musketeers in this series. 

Xavier is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % of greater than .600.  St. John’s is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Red Storm are 14-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last three seasons, winning by 13.1 points per game in this spot.  Take St. John’s Thursday. 

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

I really like the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road losses to the Pelicans and Grizzlies.  Now they have a chance to avenge their loss to the Pelicans only four days after losing to them on Saturday. 

The problem for the Lakers of late has been the Lebron James injury, coupled with the fact that they have now played eight of their last nine games on the road.  In their only home game during this stretch, they upset the Rockets 111-106 as 3-point dogs in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  Now they are back home again and are much more comfortable here. 

The Lakers are 17-12 at home this season, while the Pelicans are just 9-23 on the road.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  I think we get a big effort from James and company at home Wednesday night as they try and chase down the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenge a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 24-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 20-8 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

20* Marquette/Villanova Big East No-Brainer on Villanova -5 

I love the spot for the Villanova Wildcats tonight.  They are back home finally after losing four of their last five games with all four losses coming on the road.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory because they are chasing down Marquette for 1st place in the Big East and are 1.5 games behind currently. 

The Wildcats will also be out for revenge after losing a 65-66 heartbreaker at Marquette in their first meeting this season.  It will be a different score at home, where they are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games with all 10 wins coming by 5 points or more and by an average of 13.0 points per game. 

Marquette certainly could relax finally tonight knowing that they’ll still be in 1st place even if they lose this game and in control of their own destiny still.  And I just think it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Golden Eagles, who have covered 14 of their last 18 games overall coming in. 

Villanova is 6-0 SU & in its last six home meetings with Marquette with five of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.  Villanova is 22-8 ATS in its lsat 30 home games.  The Wildcats are 54-25 ATS in their last 79 games following an ATS loss.  Take Villanova Wednesday. 

15* Texas/Baylor ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3.5 

Despite battling through injuries, the Baylor Bears have managed to go 9-3 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are playing as well as almost anyone in the Big 12.  And they certainly want revenge from one of their losses during this stretch which came 72-84 at Texas on February 6th. 

It was certainly a rare win for the Longhorns in this series.  Baylor is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Texas.  And now the Longhorns are without their best player, so I just don’t see how they are going to break down that tough Baylor zone defense that has always given them fits. 

Kerwin Roach had 21 points in their first meeting with Baylor this season.  Now they don’t have Roach (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG), who is far and away the best player on their team.  He will miss this game due to an indefinite suspension. 

Texas is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season.  Baylor is 8-2 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Bears are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Baylor Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs -4 

This has all the makings of a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs and ’sell high’ on the Detroit Pistons.  These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions here of late, which has created some artificial line value on the Spurs tonight. 

The Spurs went just 1-7 SU in their annual Rodeo Road Trip.  It was the worst they’ve played all season.  And they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them now.  But this has been a completely different team at home, and they are glad to be back home where they are 22-7 on the season and are looking forward to righting the ship tonight. 

We’ll ’sell high’ on the Pistons, who are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But the Pistons have only beaten two teams with winning records during this stretch, and both were at home.  They haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as they are just 11-17 in road games. 

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 79-37 (68.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  They are winning by 12.7 points per game in this spot.  The Pistons are 7-20 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 

It’s safe to say the Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first three games back from the break.  After losing by a single point at Milwaukee, they proceeded to go on the road and get blown out by Chicago and Toronto. 

But now, the Celtics will be back home for the first time since the break.  And despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they should still be fresh because they had two days off prior to that game with Toronto last night.  Plus, no starters played more than 27 minutes for the Celtics last night, a hidden advantage that softens the effect of the back-to-back. 

So we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Celtics after losing three straight on the road, and we’ll ’sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed to come back from a 4th quarter deficit to beat the Cavaliers on the road last time out.  And I just think they’re getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now. 

The Celtics are 23-8 SU & 19-12 ATS at home this season, while the Blazers are just 13-15 SU & 13-15 ATS on the road.  Boston is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 20-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons.  Boston is 14-2 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Celtics Wednesday. 

25* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +2 

The Northern Iowa Panthers have been flying under the radar.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oddsmakers have missed the mark on this team big-time.  All four wins have come by double-digits. 

They beat Valparaiso by 11 and Illinois State by 13 at home, as well as upset road wins over Missouri State by 20 and Evansville by 15.  The Panthers have covered the spread by a combined 59 points in their last four games, or by an average of 14.8 points per game.  That’s how far the books have been off on this team. 

Don’t look now but Northern Iowa is only one game back of first place in the Missouri Valley.  It will also be Senior Night as this will be their final home game.  And adding to the Panthers’ motivation is the fact that they want revenge from a 60-61 heartbreaking loss at Loyola-Chicago in their first meeting this season. 

Loyola-Chicago gets a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to making the Final Four last year.  But this year’s Ramblers aren’t nearly as good.  And they are struggling of late going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only cover came at home by a single point in a 12-point win over Evansville as 11-point favorites. 

The Ramblers were upset by 10 at Southern Illinois, they were upset at home by Missouri State as 7-point favorites, and they were also upset as 3-point road favorites at Bradley.  The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their four losses coming by an average of 15 points per game.  Their only win came at Valparaiso by 5 as 3-point favorites and they needed a huge 2nd half comeback to win that game. 

The Panthers are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  With it being senior night, with revenge in mind, and with the MVC title in their sights, I know for sure we’re going to get a huge effort from Northern Iowa tonight.  It should be enough to beat Loyola-Chicago.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois State -2 

It’s safe to say the Illinois State Redbirds will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They lost on a half court buzzer-beater to Missouri State on the road in their first meeting this season.  They led basically the entire way and were crushed when that shot went in.  They want some revenge tonight. 

I expect the Redbirds to have their revenge at home this time around.  They are 11-4 at home this season, while Missouri State is just 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in all road games.  And Illinois State is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Missouri State.  They basically just have to win to cover tonight. 

Adding to the Redbirds’ motivation is the fact that it will be Senior Night, and this is a veteran bunch with three of their top five scorers being seniors in Milik Yarbrough (16.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG), Phil Fayne (15.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Keyshawn Evans (7.8 PPG).  They’ll certainly want to end their careers winners in their final home game. 

Dana Ford is 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of Missouri State.  The Bears are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Roll with Illinois State Wednesday. 

20* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -3 

The Denver Nuggets are 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short number for them to be laying with how well they play at home.  And they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season. 

The Nuggets have come out of the All-Star Break on a mission.  They beat Dallas 114-104 as 6.5-point road favorites and the Clippers 123-96 as 9.5-point home favorites.  And now they can get a stranglehold on the division with another win over the Thunder.  They beat the Thunder 105-98 on the road and 109-98 at home in their two meetings this season.  They would win the tiebreaker with a win tonight. 

The Thunder are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at New Orleans by 9 as 4.5-point favorites, needed double-overtime to beat Utah 148-147 at home, and lost at home to Sacramento 116-119 as 5.5-point favorites.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers once again tonight. 

Denver is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins this season.  It is winning by 16.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Nuggets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Thunder are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 division games.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* Celtics/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -4 

Toronto wants revenge from back-to-back road losses at Boston this season which followed up their 12-point home win over the Celtics to start the season.  And it should come as no surprise that the Raptors lost those two games in Boston considering how important home-court advantage has been in this series. 

Indeed, the home team is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Raptors are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Celtics.  Toronto is 25-6 SU at home this season, while Boston is 14-15 SU & 11-17-1 ATS on the road. 

I think the Raptors are getting disrespected from oddsmakers tonight as only 4-point favorites because they are coming off a bad upset loss to the Magic.  But Kawhi Leonard did not play in that game, and he is expected back tonight.  The Celtics have come out of the break with back-to-back road losses at Milwaukee and Chicago, so it’s not like they are playing well right now. 

Toronto is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 16-4 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The home team continues to dominate this series tonight.  Take the Raptors Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are currently a No. 10 seed according to Joe Lunardi.  They are on the bubble, and they could really use a signature win here at home against a ranked team in No. 22 Iowa.  I expect them to get the win and cover as a short home favorite tonight. 

The Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team.  Their last three wins were miracles against three of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They won at the buzzer as 11-point home favorites over Northwestern, won at the buzzer as 4-point road favorites at Rutgers, and hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds to send it to OT against Indiana where they eventually won by 6 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Northwestern is 14th, Indiana 12th and Rutgers 10th in the Big Ten. 

Ohio State also wants revenge from a 62-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Buckeyes led 26-24 at halftime, but as has been their story on the road this season, they blew yet another halftime lead.  Look for them to have their payback at home, where they beat the Hawkeyes by 18 at home last year. 

Iowa is 1-9 ATS off two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 road games.  Iowa is 10-27-1 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -4.5 

Butler is currently on the ‘first four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi.  They need to finish the season strong to get into the NCAA Tournament.  So they’ll obviously be highly motivated for a victory here as they host Providence, which at 15-13 is playing for nothing but pride right now. 

Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Butler has won by 15 and 17 points in its last two home meetings with Providence. 

The Friars aren’t playing with a lot of pride here down the stretch.  They are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are coming off an 18-point home loss to Marquette and also lost by 14 at home to Xavier here recently.  They lost by 12 at DePaul and by 18 at Villanova during this stretch as well. 

The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Providence is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game after 14-plus games this season.  Take Butler Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -1.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are at least in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They are currently listed on the ’next four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi.  They will be highly motivated for a win here against an Alabama team that is ranked ahead of them, currently on the ‘last four byes’ line according to Lunardi. 

South Carolina has been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season.  They are 9-5 SU & 10-4 ATS in SEC play.  They have done most their damage at home, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS with their only loss to Tennessee.  They beat Mississippi State, Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss at home this season by an average of 8.7 points per game. 

Alabama is really choking away its opportunity to make the tournament.  The Crimson Tide are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 19 at Mississippi State, by 18 at home to Florida, by 9 at Texas A&M and failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites over lowly Vanderbilt.  The Crimson Tide are just 3-7 SU in true road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings, and the Gamecocks basically just have to win this game to cover.  South Carolina is 10-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Gamecocks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 SEC games.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

20* K-State/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas -3.5 

If the Kansas Jayhawks want any chance of keeping their Big 12 title streak alive, they have to beat Kansas State at home tonight.  They trail them by two games for first place in the standings.  I believe they come out with an inspired effort and get the win and cover here against the Wildcats. 

I also think we’re getting a discount on the Jayhawks tonight since they lost in ugly fashion at Texas Tech over the weekend.  That was a max motivated Red Raiders team that may be the best in the Big 12.  At the same time, Kansas State beat arguably the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State by 39 over the weekend.  Those results have created some artificial line value for this game. 

While Kansas has struggled on the road, the Jayhawks are a perfect 14-0 at home this season and winning by 14.1 points per game.  They are 7-0 at home in Big 12 play with six of their seven wins coming by 4 points or more, which is all that it will take to cover this small 3.5-point spread. 

The Jayhawks are 47-6 SU in all home meetings with Kansas State since 1997, including 20-1 SU at home.  Kansas is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 after allowing 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Kansas is 90-12 SU in its last 102 games off a loss.  The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Bet Kansas Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

It’s obviously the Chicago Bulls aren’t tanking.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Memphis by 12 as 1.5-point home favorites, beating Orlando outright as 8-point road dogs and beating Boston by 10 outright as 10-point home dogs.   

Yet, oddsmakers want to keep treating the Bulls like they are a tanking team, consistently giving them too many points.  They simply have too much talent to tank.  And now the Bulls want revenge on the Bucks after losing by 13 to them at home in a game they trailed by only 3 with a few minutes left on February 11th exactly two weeks ago today. 

Giannis Antetokounnmpo played in that game, but the Bulls’ job gets a lot easier tonight as he is doubtful to play.  Also expected to be out is point guard George Hill.  The Bulls have lost each of their first three meetings with the Bucks this season and will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep.  Two of those three games went right down to the wire. 

Chicago is 12-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  They are playing with a ton of confidence right now and will certainly show up against the East’s top team tonight.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma +10 

The Oklahoma Sooners are a bubble team and currently a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi.  They still have some work to do despite winning two straight over TCU on the road and Texas at home.  And they could really use a win here against Iowa State. 

The Sooners will be out for revenge on the Cyclones after a tough 74-75 home loss to them in their first meeting this season on February 4th earlier this month.  “It’s just a matter of being able to fight through adversity," said junior forward Kristian Doolittle. “But now we have two wins under our belts. We have another big game coming up Monday against Iowa State, one that we felt like we let get away here.” 

In losing three of their last four games, the Cyclones are now 8-6 in the conference and three games behind Kansas State for first place.  They thought they had a chance to win the Big 12, but now that hope is gone.  I just don’t like the mental state of the Cyclones right now knowing they have no chance to win the conference.  And now they’ve being asked to lay a huge number here Monday.  They are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Big 12 home games, losing outright to Baylor and TCU, and barely beating Texas by 5. 

Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Oklahoma is 8-1-3 ATS in its last 12 road games overall, and 6-0–3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers aren’t tanking.  They have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 3-1 SU in their last four games with their only loss coming to Brooklyn in triple-overtime. 

A big reason for the Cavs’ recent surge is the return of Kevin Love from injury.  Despite being on a minutes restriction, Love still scored 32 points for them against the Grizzlies last game and made six 3-pointers.  Guys like Colin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman are all playing hard and stepping their games up. 

Because Portland is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes upset wins over Golden State and Philadelphia, it is being overvalued now.  The Blazers are now being asked to go on the road and beat the Cavs by double-digits to cover.  I’m just not seeing it.  It’s a sandwich game here as well off the big win over the 76ers without Embiid, and with Boston on deck.  They won’t fully show up tonight, which is really going to make it tough for them to win by double-digits. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on one days’ rest.  The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Portland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

20* Michigan State/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan -3.5 

I’m shocked Michigan isn’t a bigger favorite over Michigan State here Sunday.  The Spartans are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for this being a rivalry game.  But it’s going to be one-sided in the Wolverines’ favor today, and there’s not much the Spartans can do about it. 

That’s because the Spartans are missing two of their three best players.  Joshua Langford (15.0 PPG) has been missing for a while now, but star big man Nick Ward (15.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) just recently suffered a fractured hand and will be out for several weeks.  In their first game without Ward, they actually trailed Rutgers in the 2nd half before eventually winning by 11 as 15.5-point favorites. 

Michigan is a perfect 16-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game and holding them to 55.6 points per game and 39.7% shooting.  The Wolverines are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Michigan is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games.  The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Take Michigan Sunday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +9.5 

After getting upset 109-110 as 8-point favorites in their first game back from the break by the Bulls, the Orlando Magic are back to being undervalued today as 9.5-point road dogs to the Toronto Raptors.  The Bulls went on to beat the Celtics by double-digits last night. 

The Magic had gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games heading into the break.  They won all five games by double-digits, too.  So the last thing they wanted was the All-Star Break with the momentum they had built up.  After slipping up in their first game back, they should be refocused here against Toronto. 

The Raptors are overvalued due to their seven-game winning streak coming in.  But they’ve been fortunate to win seven in a row.  Their last four games were unimpressive as they went 0-3-1 ATS.  They won by 5 at New York as 14-point favorites, only beat Brooklyn by 2 as 10-point favorites, beat Washington by 9 as 9-point favorites, and only beat San Antonio by 3 as 8-point favorites. 

Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Toronto, including a 116-87 upset home victory as 4.5-point dogs in their most recent meeting.  They also only lost 91-93 as 7-point home dogs in their other meeting this season.  Toronto is 3-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Raptors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

15* SMU/UCF AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on UCF -5.5 

At 19-6 on the season, the UCF Knights are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They are coming off a tough 55-60 loss at Cincinnati and will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home Sunday to face the SMU Mustangs. 

This is a rebuilding SMU team that sits at just 13-13 on the season and has had a hard time playing for pride here of late.  The Mustangs are just 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only wins during this stretch have both come at home against two of the worst teams in the AAC in Tulane and UConn. 

UCF is 13-2 at home this season.  The Knights already went on the road and beat SMU 71-65 in their first meeting this season.  They also beat SMU 52-37 as 4.5-point home favorites in their final meeting last season. 

SMU is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  UCF is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off four or more straight ATS covers.  The Mustangs are 2-8 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  SMU is 8-22-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Knights are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.  Roll with UCF Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been the most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They sit at 30-28 SU & 35-23 ATS and in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference.  They have shown what they are capable of in their last two games despite losing both.  They only lost 118-120 as 7.5-point road dogs at Denver and 123-125 as 12-point road dogs at Golden State.  Those are the top two teams in the Western Conference. 

Now, the Kings will be highly motivated for their first taste of victory since coming back from the All-Star Break.  And I think they are showing tremendous value here as 6.5-point road dogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in an awful spot tonight. 

The Thunder are coming off a double-overtime game against the Jazz last night in which they won on a buzzer-beater by Paul George, 147-146.  No question they are going to have tired legs tonight, and the Kings can exploit it as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season. 

The Kings are 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Sacramento is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games playing on one days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS off a division game this season.  The Thunder are 9-20 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to try to win games.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been at almost any other point this season as Kevin Love has recently returned from injury.  The Cavs are 4-5 SU & 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall to prove they are trying to win games. 

The Grizzlies are 23-37 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-21 SU in their last 21 games overall, and they basically are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.   

Not to mention, the Grizzlies are playing without Kyle Anderson and Jaren Jackson Jr., and they could be without Jonas Valanciunas again tonight.  They’ll also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss to the Clippers last night in which they used a lot of energy coming back from a 20-point deficit, only to lose in the end. 

Cleveland is 16-4 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Memphis is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

The USC Trojans have been a great bet at home all season.  They are 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS on their home floor while outscoring the opposition by nearly 12 points per game.  And I think they are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over Oregon State today. 

USC clearly wants revenge from a tough 74-79 road loss at Oregon State in their first meeting this season.  Well, considering the Trojans are 17-3 SU in their last 20 home meetings with the Beavers, they should have no problem winning the rematch at home this time around. 

The Trojans are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with Oregon State overall.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Oregon State is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to USC.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 14.0 points per game in this spot.  Take USC Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +10.5 

For whatever reason, the South Carolina Gamecocks just get no respect from the betting public and oddsmakers alike.  This despite the fact that they are 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in SEC play, which has been one of the strongest conferences in the country. 

Yet here the Gamecocks are again getting disrespected as double-digit road underdogs to Mississippi State.  This is a Bulldogs team they already beat 87-82 as 6-point home dogs earlier this season.  And while the Bulldogs may win the rematch, they aren’t going to do so by double-digits. 

Mississippi State is just not that good in my opinion.  Almost every time they’ve stepped up in class they have lost.  But they are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers because they are coming off three straight victories over bottom-tier SEC teams in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia.  And they needed a technical foul in the closing seconds to beat a bad Georgia team 68-67 on Wednesday.  The Bulldogs have now had only two days to prepare for South Carolina, while the Gamecocks have three days to prepare after crushing Ole Miss 79-64 on Tuesday. 

South Carolina is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Gamecocks are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 SEC games.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet South Carolina Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7 

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are coming off a huge 88-72 road win over their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils.  There’s no way they get up for Florida State Saturday after beating Duke, which was aided by a terrible injury to Duke’s best player in Zion Williamson in the opening minutes. 

Florida State is no joke.  The Seminoles are a veteran team that could make some serious noise in the NCAA Tournament.  They are proving that by going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with seven of their eight victories coming by 9 points or more.  The only exception was a 5-point win over Louisville.  Remember that the Seminoles lost on a buzzer beater to Duke earlier this season, so they’ve proven they can play with the best. 

Florida State is 8-0 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who out-rebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Bet Florida State Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1 

The Iowa State Cyclones have actually been better on the road than at home this season.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, winning at Texas Tech 68-64 as 6-point dogs, only losing to Kansas by 4 as 5-point dogs, winning at Ole Miss by 14 as 1.5-point favorites, winning at Oklahoma by 1 as 3-point favorites and winning at Kansas State by 14 as 2.5-point dogs. 

Now, the Cyclones come in highly motivated for another road victory for a few reasons.  The first is that they’re coming off a bad home loss to Baylor.  And the second is that they want revenge form an upset home loss to TCU as 9.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. 

The TCU Horned Frogs are vulnerable right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  That has been evident as they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing at home to Kansas by 5, getting upset at home by Oklahoma by 9 and getting upset at Oklahoma State by 7.  They’ll drop their fourth in a row here against a healthier, superior Iowa State team. 

The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday. 

15* Texas/Oklahoma ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4 

The Oklahoma Sooners picked up a huge 71-62 road win at TCU last time out to halt a five-game skid and put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.  But there’s still work to be done for the Sooners. 

Now, it’s time for Oklahoma to get revenge on hated rival Texas after a 72-75 road loss to the Longhorns in their first meeting this season.  And they should be able to get their revenge against a Longhorns team that is just 2-5 SU in true road games. 

The biggest reason I’m on Oklahoma today though is because Texas is going to be without its best player in Kerwin Roach due to suspension.  Roach averages 15.0 points per game and for a team that already struggles on offense, they cannot afford to be without him. 

Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Sooners are 10-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Sooners today.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

15* Jazz/Thunder ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226.5 

NBA Unders went 5-1 last night in the first six games back from the break.  Teams are usually sluggish in that first game back from the break, and I think that under trend likely continues tonight.  And I’ll bet my favorite under on the board here in the Jazz/Thunder game on ESPN Friday. 

The recent series history suggest that this number is inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Thunder have combined for 226 or fewer points in 38 of their last 39 meetings.  That makes for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 226.5.  They have combined for 217 or fewer points in 34 of their last 36 meetings as well. 

Oklahoma City is 9-1 UNDER after a game where it attempted 100 or more shots this season.  The UNDER is 21-10 in Jazz last 31 vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last six games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Thunder last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Davidson/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Davidson PK 

The Davidson Wildcats suffered a tough 73-74 home loss to Dayton on Tuesday.  They are now in 2nd place in the Atlantic 10, one game back of VCU for first place.  They own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams having beaten them in their one and only meeting this season.  And they certainly want to win the conference, so they’ll be highly motivated the rest of the way to do so. 

The same cannot be said for Rhode Island, which appears to have quiet.  The Rams are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The last four consecutive losses have been really concerning.  They lost by 15 at Davidson, by 29 at home to Dayton, were upset at home by Fordham as 11-point favorites, and lost by 34 at VCU.  If that’s not a sign of a team that has quit I don’t know what is. 

Davidson is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.  Davidson is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Rhode Island is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring less than 50 points in its previous game.  Roll with Davidson Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -2 

The Los Angeles Clippers come out of the All-Star Break sitting in 8th place in the Western Conference.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they try and fend of the Kings and Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

The Clippers haven’t really missed Tobias Harris too much.  They went into Boston and won 123-112 as 11.5-point underdogs, lost at Minnesota, and then crushed Phoenix 134-107 at home.  Now they return from their break and hit the road to take on the hapless Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are 23-36 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-20 SU in their last 20 games overall, and basically they are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.  Not to mention, the Grizzlies are without both Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas, and they could be without Jaren Jackson Jr. who is questionable. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS as road favorites over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Memphis is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

20* Rockets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3 

Lebron James is now in full-on playoff mode.  The Lakers sit at 28-29 and three games out of the 8th spot in the Western Conference.  Expect the best from James and company moving forward as they try and make a playoff run. 

After all, James missed 17 games with a groin injury prior to the break.  So he’s actually fresher for the stretch run than he’s used to.  And he should be able to raise the level of play of his teammates, just as he has done everywhere he has gone.  This is a statement game at home against the Houston Rockets Thursday night. 

The Lakers also will be extra motivated to not get swept by the Rockets this season.  They are 0-3 against Houston in their three meetings this year, but they nearly pulled the upset in a 134-138 (OT) loss at Houston in their last meeting, and that was without James.  At home this time around, and with a healthy James back, I think this one will play out in the Lakers’ favor tonight. 

Los Angeles is 23-9 ATS after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Lakers Thursday. 

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific +8.5 

I love the spot for the Pacific Tigers tonight for several reasons.  The first being that they are coming off three straight road losses, so they are undervalued, and now they’ll be back home for the first time since February 2nd.  And those weren’t bad road losses as they covered at St. Mary’s and BYU, and only lost by 5 at Santa Clara. 

Now the Tigers get their shot at revenge against St. Mary’s, which was fortunate to beat them 78-66 at home as 14-point favorites.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was a single-digit game throughout until the last few minutes. 

Few teams have played St. Mary’s as tough as Pacific in the West Coast Conference.  Indeed, Pacific is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Mary’s.  The last five meetings at Pacific have all been decided by 8 points or fewer.  And this is the worst St. Mary’s team they’ve had in years, so the Tigers should be able to stay within 8.5, if not pull off the upset. 

St. Mary’s is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  Pacific is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two years.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Add in that the Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and we have a combined 33-1 system backing the home team tonight.  Take Pacific Thursday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

The USC Trojans are in desperate need of a win at home here tonight.  They took out their frustration with a 23-point win at California last time out to follow up their three consecutive losses.  And now they want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season at Oregon 60-81 back on January 13th. 

The Trojans should have their revenge at home this time around.  They are 11-4 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game.  Oregon is just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in true road games this season.  That includes their 15-point loss at Oregon State last time out. 

The Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games overall.  The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Ducks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with USC Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of the most underrated teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star Break.  They sit at 30-29 overall and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been basically all season getting several key guys back from injury.  The only key player they are missing now is Spencer Dinwiddie. 

The Blazers have been great at home this season, but they are just 10-15 SU & 10-15 ATS on the road giving up 113.3 points per game.  And Damian Lillard is questionable to play tonight for the Blazers as he recovers from an ankle injury.  Brooklyn is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games overall. 

The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Brooklyn tonight.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

20* Michigan/Minnesota ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +5.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are on the ‘last four byes’ line by Joe Lunardi.  They are barely in the NCAA Tournament.  So a win here over Michigan would certainly put them in with room to spare, beating the 7th-ranked team in the country. 

Minnesota nearly pulled the upset in a 57-59 loss as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  It’s safe to say they want revenge, and they should be able to get it at home this time around.  The Gophers are 13-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Wisconsin and Maryland. 

The Wolverines have been vulnerable on the road in Big Ten play here of late.  Indeed, they are just 2-3 SU in their last five road games, losing at Wisconsin by 10, at Iowa by 15 and at Penn State by 6.  Their only two road wins came against Indiana and Rutgers during this stretch, two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Minnesota just blasted Indiana by 21 at home over the weekend. 

The Gophers have had a knack for playing the Wolverines tough.  In fact, each of the last 14 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including nine by 5 points or fewer.  The Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Minnesota Thursday. 

15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -4 

Don’t look now but the Colorado Buffaloes are 16-9 and on the verge of getting onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They’ve done so by doing 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset both UCLA and USC on the road, while also beating Oregon, ASU and Arizona at home. 

Now, the Buffaloes cannot afford a slip-up here at Washington State, and they know it.  Look for them to carry their momentum into another win and cover here against a Cougars team they already throttled 92-60 at home as 11.5-point favorites.  I think getting them as only 4-point road favorites in the rematch is cheap. 

Washington State is coming off a gut-wrenching 70-72 home loss to its biggest rival in Washington.  I think the Cougars suffer a ‘hangover’ from that defeat.  They are now 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games, also losing by 9 to USC, by 20 to UCLA and by 12 to Stanford. 

The Cougars are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, while the Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Colorado Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -5.5 

Marquette is 15-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by a single point to St. John’s.  That was clearly a lookahead spot with Villanova on deck.  The Golden Eagles went on to beat Villanova.  And I thought they’d have a letdown in their next game at DePaul, but they demolished the Blue Demons by 19 on the road as 3-point favorites. 

Now the Golden Eagles have a full week to get ready for Butler after last playing on February 12th.  Meanwhile, Butler last played on February 16th, only getting three days to get ready for Marquette.  And the Golden Eagles already beat the Bulldogs by 18 on the road a few weeks back. 

I think Butler will have the same problems in the rematch.  The Golden Eagles are winning by 15.8 points per game at home this season.  They score 79 points per game on the season.  Butler is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season.  They only score 66.6 points per game in true road games.  They don’t have the firepower to keep up with a Marquette team whose four leading scorers all shoot nearly 40% from 3-point range or better.  Markus Howard averages nearly 26 points per game and is a matchup nightmare. 

Marquette is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  Butler is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Golden Eagles are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 2-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  LaVall Jordan is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of Butler.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +16.5 

Rutgers is playing well enough to hang with Michigan State tonight.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  One of their losses came in overtime at Illinois, while the other was a last-second lost to Iowa on a banked 3-pointer.  They have gone on the road and upset both Penn State and Northwestern, while also upsetting Indiana and Nebraska at home.  This team just doesn’t get the respect they deserve. 

Now the Scarlet Knights on on the road seeking revenge from a 67-78 home loss to Michigan State in they first meeting this season way back on November 30th.  That was a 39-37 game at the half, and the Scarlet Knights showed they could hang with the Spartans.  It was also back when the Spartans had both Joshua Langford and Nick Ward healthy. 

Ward and Langford combined for 34 of Michigan State’s 78 points in that win over Rutgers.  But Langford (15.0 PPG) has been lost for the season since, and Ward (15.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) just recently suffered a fractured hand in their last game that is going to keep him out until late-March.  That’s a crushing blow because Ward has been unstoppable inside all season for the Spartans. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Rutgers) - after a loss by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 110 points or less are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Steve Pikiell is 13-4 ATS in road games revenging a same-season loss in all games he has coached.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -1 

The Clemson Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a win here over a ranked opponent in Florida State to boost their cause.  They certainly won’t be lacking any motivation tonight. 

Not only is Clemson coming off back-to-back tough 1-point losses at Miami and Louisville, they also want revenge from a 68-77 loss at Florida State in their first meeting this season.  They should be able to get their revenge at home, where they are 11-2 this season and holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 39% shooting. 

Florida State has not been very good on the road this year.  They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in true road games, which includes ugly losses at Pitt and Boston College.  I think the Seminoles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It has mostly come against a weak schedule with their only road games during this stretch at Miami, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. 

Florida State is 0-6 ATS in road gams when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Florida State.  Bet Clemson Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +2.5 

Since conference season has arrived, the South Carolina Gamecocks have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC.  They are 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS in SEC play this season with upset wins over Florida, Vanderbilt and Georgia on the road, as well as Auburn and Mississippi State at home.  I think they pull another upset home win over Ole Miss tonight. 

The Ole Miss Rebels have also been one of the more underrated teams in the SEC, but they are the team that is actually getting respect from oddsmakers today as road favorites in this matchup.  That’s because they have won four straight coming in and I think they are getting too much credit now. 

South Carolina is 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Ole Miss.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings straight up.  South Carolina is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its six SEC home games this season with its only loss coming to Tennessee.  The Gamecocks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 SEC games overall.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -3.5 

This is a very short number for the Davidson Wildcats to be laying at home tonight.  That’s especially the case when you consider they are probably the best team in the Atlantic 10 and they are 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.5 points per game. 

I also like the fact that Davidson has an extra day to prepare for Dayton.  They last played on Friday while Dayton last played on Saturday.  And the Flyers expended a lot of energy coming back from a 20-plus point deficit at home to VCU in the 2nd half to actually take the lead, only to lose on a last-second jumper 68-69.  I think they will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that defeat as it will be tough for them to get back up off the mat. 

Dayton is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games.  The Wildcats are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Dayton is 7-21 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons. 

Davidson is 8-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  They are winning by a whopping 18.7 points per game in this spot.  The Flyers are 0-7 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% this season.  Davidson is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Davidson Tuesday. 

20* Illinois/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +9.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 in their last six games overall that includes outright road wins at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs and at Ohio State as 8-point dogs.  They also upset both Michigan State and Nebraska at home, while beating Rutgers at home as well. 

Wisconsin is coming off four straight huge games against Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan and Michigan State.  Now they face an Illini team they already beat by 12 on the road.  I just can’t see them being all that motivated to face Illinois again tonight.   

Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini will obviously be motivated for revenge.  Not only for their loss to the Badgers earlier this season, but for their current 14-game losing streak against Wisconsin overall.  They are finally playing well enough to give Wisconsin a run for its money tonight. 

“We want more.  We’re not satisfied,” Illini freshman guard Ayo Dosunmu told reporters after Thursday’s road win at Ohio State. “Our main focus is Wisconsin and trying to get the fifth in a row.  We’re trying to make history.  We’re the only people who believe in us, so we just need to stay together.”  Bet Illinois Monday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -4.5 

I love the spot for the Creighton Bluejays today.  They are coming off three straight losses all of which came on the road to Villanova, Seton Hall and Xavier.  Now they are back home where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country over the last several seasons. 

One of those road losses was against today’s opponent in Seton Hall, so they don’t have to wait long for revenge.  They are going to want it here after losing at Seton Hall 58-63 in a nail biter. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Creighton has won its last two home meetings with Seton Hall by 17 and 14 points. 

Creighton is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games off three or more consecutive unders.  The Bluejays are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  Creighton is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons, winning by 20.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with Creighton Sunday. 

15* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +12.5 

I think we’re getting too many points with Ohio State today for a couple of different reasons.  The first is the fact that they were just upset at home by Illinois, but that’s a Fighting Illini team that has now won four straight and is better than its record would suggest. 

After all, Michigan State also recently lost to Illinois outright as 11-point favorites.  But the Spartans beat the Buckeyes by 9 on the road in the first meeting.  And that’s another reason we are getting too many points here in the rematch. 

That was a much closer game than that 9-point margin would suggest.  In fact, Ohio State actually led Michigan State by 7 at halftime.  The Spartans simply pulled away in the closing minutes as they made their free throws and Ohio State went cold from the floor.  Now, the Buckeyes want some revenge here Sunday. 

Ohio State is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 when revenging a home loss.  The Buckeyes are 33-18 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Ohio State) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a road win are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Ohio State Sunday. 

20* Wichita State/Cincinnati AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State +12 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a deflating loss at Houston that will likely cost them the AAC title.  I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ from that defeat in their biggest game of the season.  They won’t be fully focused for Wichita State, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this massive 12.5-point spread. 

Conversely, Wichita State comes in highly motivated for revenge.  The Shockers led the Bearcats nearly the entire way until the closing minutes in their first meeting this season.  But they had two technical fouls and a shooting foul in the closing minutes, and Cincinnati made six straight free throws with the clock stopped to put the game away. 

Since that defeat, the Shockers have been playing very well.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat both SMU and Tulsa at home, hammered Tulane by 15 at home, and crushed ECU by 16 on the road.  They are fully capable of hanging with Cincinnati today. 

Greg Marshall is 78-36 ATS off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Wichita State.  Both meetings last season were decided by a combined 5 points, and their first meeting this season was much closer than the 11-point margin in Cincinnati’s favor would suggest.  And because they won by 11 I think we are getting a few extra points here.  The Shockers are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 Sunday games, while the Bearcats are just 21-44 ATS in their last 65 Sunday games.  Bet Wichita State Sunday. 

20* Gonzaga/San Diego ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +16 

The San Diego Toreros are one of the best teams in the WCC this season.  They have the talent to give Gonzaga a run for their money, especially when you look at their recent history against the Bulldogs. 

San Diego only lost by 16 as 23-point dogs at Gonzaga on January 2nd.  Now the Toreros get their shot at revenge at home exactly two weeks later.  And they only lost by 5 at home to Gonzaga and by 10 on the road in their two meetings last year, so they have a great track record against this team.  Getting 16 points is simply too much tonight. 

San Diego is 11-2 at home this season, shooting 48% from the floor and giving up just 42.5% shooting.  The Toreros are very capable of getting hot from 3-point range to stay in this game.  They shoot 37.5% from distance and average 8 made 3-pointers per game at home this season. 

Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game over the last two seasons.  San Diego is 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less after 15-plus games over the last two years.  The Toreros are 6-0 ATS against top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Roll with San Diego Saturday. 

25* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -5 

The UCF Knights want revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 57-77 at Memphis on January 27th just a few weeks ago.  But now they get the Tigers at home this time around and should run away with this one. 

UCF is 12-2 at home this season with a one-point loss early in the year and then a loss to Houston, which has only lost one game all season.  And the Knights’ most important player in big man Tacko Fall got two fouls in the first three minutes in that Houston game and had to sit the entire first half. 

Memphis is just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games this season.  Their only three wins in games played away from home this season have come against Canisius, Tulane and ECU.  Those are three of the worst teams in college basketball.  They have lost by 9 to LSU, by 20 to Oklahoma State, by 13 to Houston, by 9 to Temple, by 16 to Tulsa and by 6 to USF on the highway.  As you can see, each one of those losses came by 6 points or more. 

Memphis is 1-11 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  UCF is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  The Knights are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  The Knights are 9-1 ATS after two straight games forcing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* AAC ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They’ve been poor for so long, but here they are at 17-7 SU & 17-7 ATS and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a fellow bubble team in Temple today would go a long way to helping their cause. 

It’s safe to say the Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory today.  And they have already proven they can play with Temple.  The Bulls want revenge from an 80-82 (OT) road loss at Temple in their first meeting this season on January 12th. 

Now, the Bulls get the Owls at home this time around and should have their revenge.  South Florida is 13-2 at home this season.  One of their two losses came to one-loss Houston, which is certainly forgivable. 

Temple is 1-8 ATS off a home win this season.  South Florida is 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.  The Bulls are 10-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +6.5 

Oddsmakers just haven’t adjusted enough for the loss of Virginia Tech’s best player in Justin Robinson.  He is their floor general, currently their all-time assist leader and their second-leading scorer at 14.4 PPG. 

It’s no surprise the Hokies are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games without Robinson.  They lost at home to Louisville by 8 as 5-point favorites, lost at Clemson by 8 as 3-point dogs, and only beat Georgia Tech by 8 as 12.5-point road dogs. 

Now the Hokies should be on upset alert as they hit the road to take on a feisty Pitt team that couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now.  The Panthers have gone 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is exactly the type of team I like to ‘buy low’ on. 

Plays on home teams (Pittsburgh) - after failing to cover the spread in 7 or more consecutive games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  Their offense has been woeful without Robinson running the show.  I think that continues today, and if they do manage to pull out a victory, it won’t be by 7 points or more.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -1.5 

I like everything about this spot for the Dayton Flyers today.  For starters, they want revenge from their 71-76 road loss at VCU in their first meeting this season.  Given their advantageous scheduling spot, they should get revenge. 

Indeed, the Flyers actually come into this game on six days’ rest having last played on Saturday in an impressive 77-48 road win at Rhode Island.  Now they’re rested and ready to go against a VCU team that just had to play on Wednesday, only getting two days off in between games.  And the Rams will also be playing their 5th game in 15 days here. 

Dayton is 11-2 at home this season and winning by 11.6 points per game.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Dayton basically just has to win to cover this 1.5-point spread. 

VCU is 7-17 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Dayton is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games off two consecutive road games.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Bet Dayton Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +12.5 

To say the Penn State Nittany Lions have turned their season around would be a massive understatement.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Northwestern on the road as 3-point dogs, upset Michigan at home at 7-point dogs, and only lost by 4 at Ohio State as 7-point dogs. 

Now, the Nittany Lions will be seeking revenge from a tough 90-99 (OT) home loss to Purdue on January 31st just a few weeks ago.  They are catching a whopping 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

I think Purdue is way overvalued right now after going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I correctly faded them with my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland +2.5 in a 70-56 home win over Purdue last time out.  And I’ll gladly fade the Boilermakers laying too big a number here against Penn State, a team that will want this game more. 

Penn State is 9-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Take Penn State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -3.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have lost four straight to fall to 16-9 on the season and 6-8 in Big Ten play.  They are now on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and cannot afford a home loss to Indiana if they want to get in.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory today. 

To be fair, three of those four losses were on the road while the other was a gut-wrenching home loss to Wisconsin.  Minnesota is still 12-2 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 9.1 points per game. 

Indiana doesn’t have a lot to play for but pride the rest of the way as they sit at 13-11 overall and 4-9 in the Big Ten.  The Hoosiers have really struggled of late, going 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 12.0 points per game in this spot.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Take Minnesota Saturday. 

20* Buffalo/Toledo ESPNU No-Brainer on Toledo +3.5 

The Toledo Rockets want revenge from one of their only four losses this season.  They lost at Buffalo on January 8th.  But since then, the Rockets have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS with their only loss coming by two points on the road at Kent State. 

Toledo is now 20-4 on the season, which includes 11-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home while outscoring their opponents by 18.7 points per game.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere for the Rockets at home tonight.   

I like the fact that Toledo has five days’ rest coming in having last played on February 9th, while Buffalo is only on two days’ rest having last played in February 12th.  It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Buffalo, and just the 2nd game in 10 days for Toledo.  That’s a huge advantage. 

Buffalo has been vulnerable here of late, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with outright road losses to Northern Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and Bowling Green as 8-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites at Akron in a 6-point win. 

Toledo is 7-0 ATS after a game where they forced 8 or fewer turnovers this season.  Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in February games over the last two years.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Toledo Friday. 

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Loyola-Marymount +20.5 

Gonzaga has been one of the best covering teams in college basketball this season.  They have made the betting public a lot of money by going 23-2 SU & 18-7 ATS this season.  And oddsmakers keep getting burned by this team.  At some point, they have to say enough is enough. 

I think that’s the case here with this game against Loyola-Marymount (17-8) Thursday.  Oddsmakers have made Gonzaga a whopping 20.5-point road favorite in this matchup.  It’s simply too much.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the WCC, and they shouldn’t be catching 20.5 points at home. 

That’s especially the case when you consider Loyola-Marymount only lost by 18 as 23.5-point dogs at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  If they can stay within 18 on the road, they should be able to stay within 20.5 at home.  They’ve lost by 19 or less in three of their last four meetings with the Zags, and this is the best team the Lions have had in years. 

I also think this is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge home win over their biggest rivals in the St. Mary’s Gaels.  If they were ever going to relax, it would be tonight off that win and knowing in the back of their minds they’ve already beaten the Lions by 18 once already this season.  They probably feel like they just have to show up to win, but the Lions will be laying it all on the line for sure. 

Loyola-Marymount is 10-2 SU at home this season with its two losses coming by 2 and 11 points.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  They are winning outright by 16.6 points per game in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games off three consecutive home games.  Bet Loyola-Marymount Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just ready for the All-Star Break to get here.  They have had to deal with the Anthony Davis trade drama, and it has clearly taken its toll on them.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

In their last two games, the Pelicans lost by 9 at Memphis against a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  Then they lost at home to Orlando by 30 in a game they trailed 39-17 after the first quarter.  They clearly weren’t into that game, and they won’t be into this game, either. 

The Thunder are playing as well as anyone in the NBA heading into the All-Star Break and want to carry that momentum in with one final win.  The Thunder are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, beating the likes of Portland (twice) and Milwaukee at home, as well as Houston and Philadelphia on the road.  Plus, the Thunder are expected to get Dennis Schroeder back from a one-game absence due to injury. 

The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 trips to New Orleans.  The Thunder are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Take the Thunder Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks -7 

The New York Knicks have now lost a franchise-record 18 straight games after their 111-126 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The Knicks are just ready for the All-Star Break to put this part of the season behind them. 

Plus, the Knicks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team that won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  That’s bad news as they’ll be up against a Hawks team that will run them to death as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace. 

That Atlanta team is not tanking.  They have gone 3-3 SU in their last six games with upset road wins over Phoenix and Washington, as well as an upset home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a young team that keeps playing together, and they are now as healthy as they have been all season.  They want to go into the break with a win here tonight. 

The Knicks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  That game has blowout written all over it given the Knicks are playing their 5th game in 7 days.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday.