|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-20-17||Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU||51-10||Win||100||34 h 13 m||Show|
15* LA Tech/SMU Frisco Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LA Tech +5
The LA Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams heading into bowl season. That’s because they went just 6-6 this season, but they were better than that record suggests. In fact, three of their losses this season came by a single points, and they went 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
But give head coach Skip Holtz and the Bulldogs credit for continuing to fight. They needed to win each of their final two games to get into a bowl, and they did just that with a 42-21 win at UTEP as 16-point favorites, and a 20-6 home win over UTSA as 1-point favorites. This team will clearly be happy to be playing in a ball after the way they fought for it down the stretch.
"The competitive nature of this team and the will to fight, that's been consistent all throughout the season." Louisiana Tech senior running back Boston Scott said. "We're going to go out there and play hard -- we know what's at stake. We have to have that single-elimination mindset; it's win or end with a loss. I'm looking forward to seeing this team compete."
Holtz has certainly been a coach you want to back in these bowl games. He is 3-0 in bowl games as the head coach at Louisiana Tech. They beat Illinois 35-18 in in the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, topped Arkansas State 47-28 in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl, and then won a wild 48-45 game against Navy in the 2016 Armed Forces bowl.
No doubt SMU players were happy to clinch a bowl berth back on October 27th with their 38-34 win over Tulsa. But they struggled down the stretch to stay motivated, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games overall. They were fortunate to beat Tulane 41-38 as 8-point favorites in their season finale at home as the Green Wave came up inches short of a game-winning TD in the closing seconds.
Now I really question the motivation of this team. Head coach Chad Morris has abandoned the team and left for the Arkansas job, and he took a handful of assistants with him. New head coach Sonny Dykes hasn’t had time to install his preferred Air Raid offense, so he will just sit back and let some of the team’s remaining assistants call the game and let his new team play to their strengths. That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, and I just can’t imagine these SMU players being as focused as they normally would be coming into a game.
It’s just hard to trust SMU in this game with the way they play defense. They give up 35.5 points, 487 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the season. Compare that to LA Tech, which allows 26.7 points, 395 yards per game and 5.8 per play, and it’s easy to see which team has the superior defense in this one. I think that will be the difference in this game, plus the fact that the Bulldogs will be the more focused, motivated team.
SMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close home win by 3 points or less. LA Tech is 8-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. Bet Louisiana Tech Wednesday.
|12-20-17||Kings v. Nets -5||104-99||Loss||-110||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5
The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Now they are getting too much respect from the books for their upset win over Philadelphia last night, a tired Philly team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back itself.
The Nets are rested and ready to go as they have had two days off since losing to Indiana on Sunday. They will also be motivated for a victory after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, which has them undervalued as well. The Nets had gone 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games and I feel like they are back to being undervalued here.
The Kings are 14-25 ATS off a win over the last two seasons. Sacramento is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on 0 days’ rest. The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Nets are 43-19-2 ATS in their last 64 vs. NBA Pacific Division foes. The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn. Roll with the Nets Wednesday.
|12-20-17||Houston -4.5 v. Providence||70-59||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* Houston/Providence ESPNU No-Brainer on Houston -4.5
The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has this team playing at a very high level. They are off to a 9-2 start this season with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points. They even beat Arkansas 91-65 as 4-point home dogs for their signature win.
Providence is struggling against the spread right now due to all their injuries. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They only beat Rider 88-84 as 14-point favorites, lost at Rhode Island 68-75 as 4-point dogs, only beat Brown 77-72 as 18.5-point home favorites, lost at UMass 63-72 as 4.5-point favorites. And there wasn’t even a line in their last game against Stony Brook, and they only won that game 62-60 at home.
The Friars' best player Emmitt Holt is out for the season. Both Alpha Diallo (11.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Maliek White (6.1 ppg) are doubtful to play tonight. And their floor general in point guard Kyron Cartwright (9.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) is questionable after suffering an ankle injury in his previous game. They are simply missing too many players right now, which is the reason for their recent struggles.
Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Houston) - an explosive offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against a good offensive team (74-76 ppg), after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games are 77-38 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Friars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Houston Wednesday.
|12-19-17||Cavs v. Bucks +2.5||116-119||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* Cavs/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a big effort tonight. They have lost three straight coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory. They have also had two days off since a 111-115 loss at Houston as 10.5-point dogs on Saturday, which was as tough as anyone has played the Rockets during their 14-game winning streak.
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 18-1 in their last 19 games overall. But they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued.
Milwaukee will also be out for revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season to the Cavaliers. They want to prove they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs, who are much more vulnerable this season than they have been in year’s past due to trading Kyrie Irving and with all their current injuries.
Cleveland is a woeful 5-19 ATS as a favorite this season. Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is winning by 6.9 points per game on average in this spot. Take the Bucks Tuesday.
|12-19-17||Drake v. South Dakota State OVER 153.5||Top||74-87||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/South Dakota State OVER 153.5
We have the perfect storm for an OVER here with two teams that love to push the tempo in Drake and South Dakota State. Niko Medved has brought his up-tempo system to Drake in his first year hear, and T.J. Otzelberger learned under Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State and has brought that system to South Dakota State.
The Jack Rabbits are averaging 83.9 points per game on the season and shooting an impressive 41.4% from 3-point range on 26 attempts per game. They give up 76.1 points per game because of the frenetic pace they play at.
The Bulldogs have really improved offensively this season, averaging 79.9 points per game and shooting 41.6% from 3-point range on 25 attempts per game. They have been pretty poor defensively, though, allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting.
Drake is 7-0 OVER after allowing 85 points or more over the last two seasons. South Dakota State is 13-3 OVER vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The OVER is 25-10-1 in Bulldogs last 36 games following a loss. The OVER is 8-2 in Jack Rabbits last 10 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 40-19-1 in Jack Rabbits last 60 non-conference games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|12-19-17||Belmont +6.5 v. Western Kentucky||75-72||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +6.5
The Belmont Bruins cannot be this big of road underdogs to Western Kentucky given how well they have played on the road this season. And this is a WKU team that returned zero starters from last year and simply isn’t very good.
Belmont has road losses to Washington (82-86), Providence (65-66) and TCU (76-87) that show they are capable of beating Western Kentucky. They also have a road win at Middle Tennessee (69-63) as 7-point underdogs and a home win over Vanderbilt (69-60) as 4-point underdogs.
Western Kentucky is actually a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 9 days, which is a lot when you consider last week was Finals Week. And the Hilltoppers won’t have many fans in attendance at home here with everyone on Spring Break, so the home-court advantage is neutralized.
Belmont is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons. The Bruins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Ohio Valley opponents. Take Belmont Tuesday.
|12-19-17||Akron +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||3-50||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* Akron/FAU Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Akron +23.5
For starters, this is the biggest spread in college football bowl history. I’ll gladly take the underdog in this situation as this 23.5-point spread has gotten out of hand for a number of reasons. The value is clearly with Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.
This is an Akron team that has been underrated for most of the season. Nobody expected them to go to the MAC Championship, but that’s precisely what they did. The key was their 37-34 win over Ohio as 15.5-point underdogs. There was nothing fluky about that win as they outgunned Ohio by 48 yards.
I like the fact that in the MAC Championship Game, they could have packed it in when they fell behind big early. But they kept fighting and wound up covering as 20.5-point underdogs in a 28-45 loss to Toledo, which is a better team than Florida Atlantic.
The Zips are very happy to be playing in a bowl game and will be motivated to try to pull the upset and finish their season with a winning record. After all, this is only their third bowl game in the history of the program. It’s only their second bowl appearance in the past 11 seasons. They now get to head down to some warm weather in Florida and couldn’t be more excited to be here.
I think Florida Atlantic comes in way overvalued after going 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The betting public has caught on to this team and has driven this line all the way up to 23.5. Their season is a success no matter what happens in this game, because they just won Conference USA with a 41-17 victory over North Texas.
They won their conference, and there really isn’t anything more to accomplish. And what is Florida Atlantic’s reward for winning a down Conference USA? They get to play another home game here. The betting public will look at that as a good thing, but I don’t believe it’s a good thing at all. They would much rather travel somewhere to a better destination. These players won’t be excited at all to stay home. Their lack of motivation in this game will make it very difficult to cover this 23.5-point spread in spite of their big talent edge.
Akron is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games this season. Florida Atlantic is 25-42 ATS in its last 67 home games. The Zips are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Akron is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Zips are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
Plays against home favorites (Florida Atlantic) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a defense that gives up 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play after 7-plus games, in non-conference games are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1992. Bet Akron Tuesday.
|12-19-17||Marshall +21 v. Xavier||77-81||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* Marshall/Xavier CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +21
The Marshall Thundering Herd are 8-3 this season and Dan D’Antoni, the broker of Mike D’Antoni of the Houston Rockets, has this offense hitting on all cylinders. The Thundering Herd have won four straight coming in and are scoring 90.2 points per game on the season.
Marshall is a very difficult team to prepare for, and that will be a problem for a Xavier team that needed to erase a 22-point deficit in the second half to beat lowly East Tennessee State 68-66 on Saturday as 21.5-point favorites. They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and they have only two days to get ready for Marshall. They also won’t have many fans in attendance with this being Christmas Break.
Xavier coach Chris Mack was impressed by what he saw on film from the Thundering Herd. "I love the way they play offense," he said. "Elmore is a special player. He's as adept shooting threes as he is getting to the foul line. He's surrounded by some really skilled personnel."
"We have a lot of respect for Marshall," Mack said. "They do a great job of spacing the floor and playing with space. They are difficult to prepare for. It's a big challenge.”
Marshall is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the past two seasons. The Thundering Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East opponents. I think the Musketeers find themselves in another battle they don’t want to be in tonight. Roll with Marshall Tuesday.
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||164 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5
The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night. After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons. I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night. It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points. That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total. And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay.
None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another. Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings. Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings.
I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year.
Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game. The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play. They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury.
James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball. The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games. But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit. They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions.
Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-18-17||76ers v. Bulls +2.5||115-117||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +2.5
Since Nikola Mirotic returned to the Bulls’ lineup on December 8th, they have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. They have beaten Charlotte and Milwaukee on the road, and New York, Boston and Utah at home.
They were underdogs in all five games, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as home dogs tonight. Mirotic has led the way in averaging 25 points in his past three games and is the team’s leading scorer on the season.
The 76ers are in a hangover spot here off a triple-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Joel Embiid suffered a back injury in that game, but played all three overtimes. He will now sit out this game to rest, as will Trevor Booker. The 76ers aren’t nearly the same team without Embiid. They have lost five of their last six games overall coming in.
Philadelphia is 24-39 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Chicago is 25-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams out-rebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three years. The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Chicago is 12-2 ATS In its last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with the Bulls Monday.
|12-18-17||Celtics -2 v. Pacers||112-111||Loss||-107||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 25-7. Getting them as only 2-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers is a nice bargain tonight, especially considering the tough spot the Pacers are in.
Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 win in Brooklyn on Sunday. The Pacers will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days. The Celtics had yesterday off and will be re-energized here after beating the Grizzlies 102-93 on the road Saturday.
The Celtics have owned the Pacers, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. All four wins came by 6 points or more, and most of those came against better Pacers teams that had Paul George. This is a better Celtics team this season as Kyrie Irving and this young talent have really played at a high level all year.
Boston is 11-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall. Indiana is 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Take the Celtics Monday.
|12-17-17||Cavs v. Wizards||106-99||Loss||-110||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* Cavs/Wizards NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Washington PK
The Washington Wizards just recently got back John Wall from injury. It’s no surprise they have won their two games since his return. And now they’re going to want to make a statement against the Cleveland Cavaliers, letting them know they are coming for them this season.
And now the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, as well as their 6th game in 10 days. The Cars were already short-handed without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, and now both Tristan Thompson and Dwyane Wade are expected to rest. The Cavs are short on numbers and won’t have much left in the tank tonight.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) after two or more consecutive wins, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 72-37 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Take the Wizards Sunday.
|12-17-17||Titans v. 49ers -2||Top||23-25||Push||0||149 h 19 m||Show|
25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2
I’ve backed the 49ers with success in each of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first two starts. I’m not about to buck them now as I think they are still being undervalued as only 2-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans. The 49ers have new life under Garoppolo, and they are treating this like a separate season. They are 2-0 in this new season.
The 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs. That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more. But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals.
Then last week the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs. They outgained the Texans by 105 yards in that contest. Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win. The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense. This is a completely new offense with Garoppolo, a much more dynamic one that is undervalued.
The fact that the offense can actually move the ball and score points has the defense rejuvenated. And boy, is this defense playing well. The 49ers have one of the better front sevens in the league defensively, and they are showing it lately. San Francisco has given up just 229 total yards per game in their last two contests against the Bears and Texans.
The Titans are the single-most overrated team in the NFL. They are a fraudulent 8-5 and are not a playoff team. They have actually been outscored by 21 points on the season despite that 8-5 record. They are also getting outgained on the season as their numbers just aren’t very good.
Tennessee really only has one win by more than one score this season. That’s because I don’t count their wins over the Colts and Texans earlier where Derrick Henry ran for 70-plus yards for touchdowns in the final seconds when they were just trying to run out the clock. Both runs he could have gone down and the game would have been over. It led to brutal bad beats if you were on the Colts or Texans in those two games.
The Titans lost 7-12 at Arizona last week. Marcus Mariota looks broken, and the running game cannot get going. The Titans managed just 204 total yards in the loss. Mariota went 16-of-31 passing for 159 yards and two interceptions. He hurt his knee early and played through it, and that could be an issue again this week. The Titans have been held to 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last 10 games. They just haven’t been able to run the ball like they did last year, and they won’t be able to against this stout San Francisco front seven, either.
San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Mike Mularkey is 4-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Tennessee. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|12-17-17||Patriots v. Steelers +3||27-24||Push||0||80 h 30 m||Show|
15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3
The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn the corner against the New England Patriots and exorcise their demons. The Patriots have owned them, including their 36-17 win in the AFC Championship Game. But Le’Veon Bell was hurt on the first drive of that game and did not return.
Now the three B’s are all healthy and are the only 3,000-yard, 1,000-yard, 1,000-yard trio in the NFL up to this point. And the Steelers are remarkably healthy as a whole. They get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from suspension this week, and CB Joe Haden could make his return this week as well. The only real significant loss is LB Ryan Shazier, and while that is a big loss, there’s no question the Steelers are the more healthy team.
The Patriots are banged up everywhere, but mostly along the defensive front seven. They have played without both Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy in recent weeks, and Alan Branch was injured against Miami and forced to leave the game. All three players are highly questionable, leaving the Patriots short of pass rushers, which is why they signed Ricky Jean Francois this week. Van Noy, Flowers and Branch are three of the most important players on defense. They could not get any pressure on Jay Cutler last week.
Their task gets even tougher this week against a Steelers offense that just put up 545 total yards against a very good Ravens defense last week. Big Ben three for 506 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Steelers are the definition of an elite team. They are outgaining their opponents by 77 yards per game on the season. They have outgained 11 of their 13 opponents this year.
This is an awful spot for the Patriots. They will be playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 5th road game in the past 6 weeks. That’s about as tough of a situation as any NFL team can be in. Plus, they will now be working on a short week having played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. I think the Steelers will be the fresher, more motivated team this week and that will greatly aid them in pulling off the upset victory.
This line suggests the Patriots would be 6-point favorites on a neutral and 9-point favorites at home when you factor in home-field advantage, so that fact alone shows there’s value on the Steelers as I would back them at both of those lines.
Having a healthy Bell will be key in exploiting the biggest weakness of the Patriots, which is stopping the run. The Patriots actually give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Expect a monster game from a motivated Bell who wants to prove that he was the difference as to why they lost in the AFC Championship Game last year.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 40-20 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or more. Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Mike Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh. Roll with the Steelers Sunday.
|12-17-17||Kings v. Raptors UNDER 206||93-108||Win||100||6 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 206
The UNDER is almost always a good bet in the situation that the Kings and Raptors are in today. These teams just played each other on December 10th just seven days ago. They are extremely familiar with each other because of it, and familiarity favors defense.
The Kings are one of the slowest teams in the NBA. They rank 28th in pace at 96.8 possessions per game. And now they are expected to be without lighting-quick point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is doubtful with a quad injury. The only time they push the pace is when he’s in, but now they will be even slower than usual without him.
Toronto just beat Sacramento 102-87 for 189 combined points last Sunday. Now they’ve set the total at 206, which is 17 points higher. It’s clear that there’s value with the UNDER. Not to mention, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The last four meetings have seen 189, 201, 187 and 198 combined points, which is an average of just 193.8 combined points per game. That’s also 12 points less than this 206-point total.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 Sunday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-17-17||Ravens v. Browns +7||27-10||Loss||-105||92 h 20 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7
You have to have some seriously thick skin if you’ve backed the Cleveland Browns and continued to do so this season. They are just 3-10 ATS on the year, but could easily be 10-3 ATS instead. There have been eight ATS losses where they had a chance to cover in the closing seconds and haven’t gotten the job done.
It happened again last week as they led by 14 in the 4th quarter against the Packers, but ended up losing by 6 in overtime. So even backers who had Cleveland +3 couldn’t even get a push, even though it was the right side the entire game until the final play. But I think the value is with the Browns as 7-point home underdogs this week to the Ravens. When you’re getting 7 points, it means you can’t lose in overtime.
The Browns are clearly way better than their 0-13 record. They have the stats of a 6-7 or 5-8 team. They are only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season and 0.2 yards per play. We saw the Browns fight down the stretch last year to avoid a winless this season. I think they’ll do the same this season, especially since a win wouldn’t cost them the No. 1 pick considering every other team in the NFL has at least two wins.
Statistically, the Ravens have been a worse team than the Browns. They rank worse in total offense and total defense. They are getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season and 0.4 yards per play. I question the fight the Ravens will have this week after their deflating 39-38 loss to Pittsburgh last week. They blew a double-digit lead to their biggest rivals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have a ‘hangover’ effect from hat defeat.
Big Ten threw for over 500 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week. It’s clear that the loss of Jimmy Smith is a big one for the Ravens as the Steelers did whatever they wanted to through the air. The Browns now have two legitimate weapons at receiver to exploit the Ravens. Corey Coleman is back healthy now, and Josh Gordon has returned from suspension and has been a huge factor already in the passing game. This Cleveland offense has a ton of potential moving forward.
Cleveland has outgained Baltimore in four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 386-337 yard edge in their first meeting this year. The Ravens won that game 24-10, but only due to five turnovers by the Browns. The Browns had multiple chances to cover as 7.5-point dogs, but kept turning the ball over deep in Baltimore territory.
Now Baltimore is basically an identical 7-point favorite in the rematch. Flipping home field should be a 6-point difference, which would mean Baltimore would be a 1.5-point favorite based on the 7.5-point spread in the first meeting. I think there’s value on the Browns at +7 because of this. The Ravens may win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown.
Baltimore is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three years. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take the Browns Sunday.
|12-16-17||Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 198||96-98||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198
I love betting the UNDER in this spot. The Mavs and Spurs just played each other on Tuesday with the Mavs winning 95-89 at home. So these teams are very familiar with one another, and now they’ll be playing each other just five days later. This situation always favors the defenses and the UNDER.
This has been a low-scoring series between the Mavs and Spurs anyway. They have combined for 191 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings. They have averaged just 193.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 5 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198.
The Spurs will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he gets a night of rest in this back-to-back situation. The Mavs will be without starting point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who is arguably their best player and scorer as well. These injuries will help aid this UNDER.
The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Mavs last 17 Saturday games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavs last 10 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-16-17||Thunder v. Knicks +3||96-111||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +3
The Oklahoma City Thunder just played a triple-overtime game against the Philadelphia 76ers last night. It’s safe to say they won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since all five starters played basically the entire 15 minutes of overtime. Russell Westbrook played 52 minutes, Steven Adams 51, Paul George 45, Carmelo Anthony 47 and Andre Roberson 34.
The Knicks will be motivated for the Anthony reunion to prove that they are a better team without him. They will also be rested after having yesterday off. The Knicks are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game on average. They have been one of the most profitable teams to bet at home this season.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Oklahoma City) - off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|12-16-17||Bears +6 v. Lions||Top||10-20||Loss||-110||112 h 38 m||Show|
20* Bears/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +6
The Chicago Bears have played nine straight games with Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback. They have only lost one game by more than 8 points, and that came on the road against the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles. So they have been competitive in eight of their nine games. And now they are catching 6 points on the road against the Detroit Lions this week.
Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season. He completed 25-of-32 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score in a 33-7 win at Cincinnati as 6-point dogs. The Bears also rushed for 232 yards as a team and racked up a season-high 482 yards in the win.
Another one of the Bears’ best offensive performances this year came a few weeks ago on November 19th in a 24-27 home loss to the Detroit Lions. The Bears actually outgunned the Lions 398 to 352 in that contest and arguably should have won. They rushed for 222 yards on that Lions defense. Now they will want revenge only a few weeks later, and I think they have a great chance to pull the upset as the offense continues to click against an awful Detroit defense.
The Lions aren’t the type of team used to blowing teams out, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 6-point spread. And their defense is not good enough to be favored this heavily. The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 363.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. They needed five turnovers last week just to beat the hapless Bucs 24-21.
What makes the Bears so underrated is that their defense is very good, and they have a strong running game. The Bears rank 11th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 325.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. They rank 7th in rushing offense, averaging 124.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. The Lions are 20th against the run, giving up 116.3 yards per game and 4.2 per carry. They have allowed an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game in their last five contests.
This head-to-head series has been extremely tight in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Lions and Bears have been decided by 6 points or fewer. Each of the last five have been decided by 4 points or less. That fact alone just shows the kind of line value we are getting with the Bears catching 6 points here Saturday.
Detroit is 29-51 ATS in its last 80 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Bears Saturday.
|12-16-17||Oklahoma v. Wichita State -7.5||91-83||Loss||-105||5 h 19 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Wichita State CBB No-Brainer on Wichita State -7.5
The Wichita State Shockers are ranked No. 3 in the country thanks to their 8-1 start and their five returning starters from last year. They have played the gauntlet, facing the likes of Cal, Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor and Oklahoma State with all five of those games either on a neutral or on the road.
Now they get Oklahoma at home in one of the most hostile arenas in college basketball. And I think this Oklahoma team is way overrated and doesn’t have a real good victory to its name yet. USC and Oregon are both down, and they lost tot he best team they have faced in Arkansas 83-92.
Now the Shockers will be the best team they have played yet, and it will actually be their first true road game of the season. I don’t expect this young Sooners team led by freshman Trae Young to be able to handle this situation very well at all.
Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 1-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons. The Shockers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Roll with Wichita State Saturday.
|12-16-17||North Texas v. Troy -6.5||Top||30-50||Win||100||68 h 23 m||Show|
20* North Texas/Troy 2017 Bowl Season Opener on Troy -6.5
The Troy Trojans are 10-2 this season. Their only losses came to Boise State and South Alabama. The Boise State loss was on the road and they were in it the entire way, and the South Alabama loss was a letdown spot following the biggest win in program history at LSU the previous week. Both losses were understandable.
This is a Troy team that is loaded with seniors. They will be motivated to win their 11th game and end their careers on top with a win in the New Orleans Bowl. And I certainly believe they are far and away the better team in this matchup with North Texas.
This is a North Texas team that was extremely fortunate to post a 9-4 record this year. The Mean Green went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Every time they took a step up in class, they were blown out, and this is a step up as well. They lost by 22 at SMU, by 17 at Iowa, by 38 at Florida Atlantic and by 24 to FAU in the C-USA Championship. They trailed that game 34-0 before getting some garbage time scores.
Since that loss to South Alabama, Troy has gone 6-0 with five of those wins coming by 7 points or more. They are playing well and will be the superior team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They give up just 3.0 yards per carry on defense, and they average 4.8 yards per carry on offense.
North Texas hasn’t been able to run the ball since losing arguably their best player in running back Jeffery Wilson. He was hurt in the Army game in their 11th game of the season. Wilson has rushed for 1,215 yards and accounted for 16 total touchdowns. The Mean Green managed just 81 rushing yards on 35 carries against Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game. They are one-dimensional now, which will make the task much easier for Troy in this game.
Another big difference in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. Troy has one of the better defenses in the country, giving up just 17.5 points per game and 4.9 yards per play on the season. North Texas is one of the worst defensive teams, giving up 33.8 points pre game and 5.9 yards per play. That’s more than a 16-point difference.
The Trojans have a coaching edge in this game. Troy defensive coordinator Vic Koenning held the same title at North Carolina when North Texas head coach Seth Littrell was the offensive coordinator of the Tar Heels. The Trojans will be prepared for what they’re going to face defensively Saturday.
"He's a really good friend of mine. I respect what he's done," Brown said of Littrell. "Vic's got an understanding of who Seth is and what he's about.”
"I really like what those guys do on offense, so I've watched them quite a bit as the years have gone on," Brown said of North Texas. "I've got a good feel for what they're trying to do offensively. The Fine kid ... they recruited him hard here at Troy. He's doing a really good job."
Plays on neutral field favorites (Troy) after allowing 8 or more yards per passing attempt last game, with 8 offensive starters returning are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1992. North Texas is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. The Mean Green are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Neal Brown is 13-3 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of Troy. The Trojans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. at team with a winning record. Bet Troy in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.
|12-15-17||Pelicans v. Nuggets +1||Top||111-117||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +1
The Denver Nuggets have actually been able to sustain success despite the losses of their two best players in Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in recent weeks. But they don’t have to play without both any longer as Jokic is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight.
The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since November 22-24. They have gone just 4-6 since and are coming off a 115-108 home victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 9th game in 15 days. This is a tired team right now.
The Nuggets are going to want revenge from a 123-114 road loss at New Orleans on December 6th just over a week ago. The Nuggets won their three previous meetings with the Pelicans, including blowout home wins by 32 and 16 points. They should not be home underdogs here tonight.
The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Friday games. The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Denver. Bet the Nuggets Friday.
|12-15-17||Hawks v. Grizzlies UNDER 198||94-96||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER 198
Nothing has changed with the grit ’n grind Memphis Grizzlies this season. They are still a team that cannot score the ball, but they lay it on the line defensively every night. Of course, it hurts that they lost their best player in PG Mike Conley, and they are also playing without Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright, and possibly Tyreke Evans tonight.
The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall. They have failed to score more than 95 points in 11 of those 14 games. But they have given up 100 or fewer in seven of those. Now they face a tired Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight. Don’t expect them to try and get up and down the floor with any kind of tempo tonight.
The Grizzlies rank 30th in the NBA in pace at 95.7 possessions per game, and they’ll control the tempo playing at home here tonight. Memphis ranks 27th in offensive efficiency while Atlanta is 21st. So it will be a slow tempo between two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, which is a perfect recipe for an UNDER.
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams. They have combined for 197 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings. They are averaging just 186.4 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-15-17||Thunder v. 76ers -1.5||119-117||Loss||-110||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* Thunder/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -1.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overrated team in the NBA to this point. They are just 13-14 SU & 8-18 ATS, including 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS on the road. They have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The problem with the Thunder is that in trading for Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, they traded away all their depth. Their bench is awful, and Anthony has proven to be a cancer in Oklahoma City just like he was in New York.
The 76ers will be hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in. They have had two days off to get ready for the Thunder after last playing on Tuesday. They are almost fully healthy now as the only player they will be missing tonight Is Markelle Fultz. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.
The 76ers are 20-4 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the last two seasons. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest. Philadelphia is 42-16-1 ATS in its last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take the 76ers Friday.
|12-14-17||Broncos -2 v. Colts||Top||25-13||Win||100||66 h 45 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Colts AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver -2
The Denver Broncos are just 4-9 this season, but they have the statistics of a team that should be sitting with a winning record and in the playoff hunt. That is why they are undervalued right now, and I think we are getting a discount on them here Thursday as only 2-point road favorites over the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are 3-10 this season and they have the statistics of a team that would be 3-10. They are right where they should be. They are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that has shown with four consecutive losses and seven losses in their last eight games. They aren’t going to win this game, either.
The Broncos are actually outgaining their opponents by 32 yards per game on the season. They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 280.5 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.7 yards per play. They are 22nd in total offense at 312.1 yards per game. Not great, but way better than the Colts.
The Colts are getting outgained by 85 yards per game, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL. They rank 30th in total defense (375.3 yards/game) and 30th in yards per play (5.9) defense. They are 31st in total offense (290.7 yards/game) and 32nd in yards per play (4.6) offense.
I think the short week actually hurts the Colts more. They have to travel back home from the snow fest in Buffalo in which they lost 13-7 in the final minutes of overtime. That game had to take a lot out of them, and don’t be surprised if many of these Colts players come down with illnesses after having to play in the elements. This is a dome team not used to having to go outdoors and play in the snow like that.
Meanwhile, the Broncos made easy work of the Jets 23-0 last week. They limited the Jets to just 100 total yards in the win. It helped that they got Aqib Talib back. After spending little energy to put away the Jets, the Broncos should still be fresh. That’s key with this short week. That effort also shows that the Broncos have not quit on their season.
The Colts will be without starting center Ryan Kelly, wide receiver Donte Moncrief, slot corner Nate Hairston and cornerback Rahsaan Melvin against the Broncos. The Kelly injury is huge because he is their best offensive lineman. No quarterback has been sacked more than Jacoby Brissett this year. That makes this a great matchup for the Broncos, who are excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks.
Plays on road teams (Denver) a slow starting team that is outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after allowing 6 points or fewer last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Bet the Broncos Thursday.
|12-14-17||Kings +10.5 v. Wolves||96-119||Loss||-105||8 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an overvalued commodity this season due to the signing of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. They are consistently laying prices that they cannot handle, and I think that’s the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites over the Kings.
The Timberwolves are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are a mediocre 16-12 SU on the season as well. They are only outscoring the opposition by 0.6 points per game on the season, including just 2.2 points per game at home. They aren’t blowing out teams on the regular.
The Kings have been a nice money-maker for backers over the past three weeks. They have been flying under the radar, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They have three upset victories during this stretch, including a road win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs.
The Kings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Timberwolves, winning twice outright as underdogs. Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents. The Kings are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six road games. The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Roll with the Kings Thursday.
|12-14-17||Knicks v. Nets -1||111-104||Loss||-105||8 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1
The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back. Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done.
The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road. They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game.
The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Nets Thursday.
|12-13-17||Portland State +15 v. Oregon||84-95||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +15
The Portland State Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened 8-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their eight lined games. Now they are catching 15 points from a rebuilding Oregon team that has no business laying this kind of number.
Portland State’s two losses this season came to Duke (81-99) as 24.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Butler (69-71) as 12-point dogs on a neutral. The Vikings have pulled outright upsets over UC-Riverside, Utah State, Stanford, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara with four of those wins coming on the road. This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve.
Oregon is just 7-3 SU & 4-5 ATS on the season. The Ducks returned just one starter from last year. They have been upset by UConn and Boise State, and they also lost to Oklahoma by 10. Their 74-68 win over Texas Southern as 20-point home favorites on Monday was also a concerning result. Now they have had just one day to get ready for Portland State.
The Vikings are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Roll with Portland State Wednesday.
|12-13-17||Raptors v. Suns +11.5||115-109||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5
The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him. They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7).
I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run. But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers. They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here.
The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number. They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home.
The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons. Take the Suns Wednesday.
|12-13-17||Blazers v. Heat -2.5||Top||102-95||Loss||-105||8 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5
The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road. The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.
Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling. The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home. They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs. I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here.
The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless. Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight. The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee.
The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss. The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|12-12-17||Wizards v. Nets +4.5||98-103||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5
The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis. But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him. They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS. They have been competitive in most games. They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to.
The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA. They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss. Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season. Take the Nets Tuesday.
|12-12-17||Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs||Top||114-123||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall. They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently. They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins.
Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits. The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season. They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th. The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall.
Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar. The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets. They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch.
The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable. They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert. And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks.
Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.
|12-12-17||Columbia +12 v. Boston College||66-81||Loss||-110||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Columbia +12
Off their shocking 89-84 upset win as 15-point underdogs to Duke on Saturday, the Boston College Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Columbia. They won’t show up at all, and don’t be surprised if they lose outright. But I certainly love getting Columbia as 12-point dogs in this spot.
This is the same Boston College team that lost by 11 to Texas Tech, by 22 to Providence and by 9 to Nebraska. It’s also a BC team that only beat Colgate 83-79 in its previous home game before beating Duke. Go figure.
Columbia is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate. This team has simply had brutal luck in close games, losing seven times by 10 points or less. The two exceptions? A 15-point road loss as 25.5-point dogs at Villanova and a 14-point road loss as 13.5-point dogs at Penn State. That effort against Villanova alone shows that this team is more than capable of hanging with Boston College on the road tonight.
Columbia is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games as a dog of 10 points or more. Columbia is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Boston College is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. teams who allow 45% or more shooting to opponents. The Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Roll with Columbia Tuesday.
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||97 h 58 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5
The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here. They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC. Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that. They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins. They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week. But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge. And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore.
Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season. He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio. He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense. He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos. The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season.
This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season. Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week. He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami. What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers.
The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Dolphins Monday.
|12-11-17||Hornets v. Thunder -6.5||116-103||Loss||-107||9 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to play better. They have won four of their last five games overall. But they are actually 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so they are not living up to expectations from oddsmakers. I think that has them undervalued now as only 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets.
Paul George has sat out the last two games, but he is expected to return for this contest against the Charlotte Hornets. They blew a 16-point lead to the Nets in their first game without him. Then they came back from 20 points down to beat the Grizzlies in overtime. I think having him back in the lineup will be a huge boost tonight.
Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are really struggling. They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have lost back-to-back home games to the Bulls and Lakers. They have a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with right now, too. Nic Batum (elbow), Frank Kaminsky (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) are all questionable, while Cody Zeller (knee) is out.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oklahoma City) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Hornets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma City. Take the Thunder Monday.
|12-10-17||Ravens +5 v. Steelers||Top||38-39||Win||100||106 h 37 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5
Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point. Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.
This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive. It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points. They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16. Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans. They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game.
Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams. They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites. I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak.
While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not. Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles. The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker. I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario.
The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday. Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense. He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed. Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict. That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes.
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game. This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents. Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh. The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise. They are much healthier now. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|12-10-17||Redskins v. Chargers -5.5||13-30||Win||100||63 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5
The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season. After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL. Not only are they winning, they are dominating.
Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas. Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL. They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses.
This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs. They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place. That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated.
Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road. They completely imploded, committing four turnovers. Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now. I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week.
It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field. They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week. They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.
Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders. The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests. That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall. Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.
The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|12-10-17||Raptors v. Kings +8.5||Top||102-87||Loss||-105||4 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +8.5
The Sacramento Kings just can’t get any respect from the books. And until they do, we’ll continue to back them catching big points in the underdog role. They should not be this big of a home underdog to the Toronto Raptors today.
The Kings are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-4 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Three of the four wins were upsets, including a win at New Orleans as 9.5-point dogs and a win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. The are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, pulling off outright upsets over the Thunder, 76ers, Blazers and Lakers in the process.
The Raptors are getting too much love from the books due to their 5-game winning streak coming in. But those five wins came against the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Suns and Grizzlies. That’s an easy slate, and it showed considering they were 5-point favorites or more in all five games. It won’t come so easy against the Kings tonight.
The Kings are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Raptors. Sacramento is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in all meetings with Toronto over the past two seasons, winning both road meetings outright as underdogs as well. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|12-10-17||Arizona State +12.5 v. Kansas||95-85||Win||100||2 h 13 m||Show|
15* ASU/Kansas ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona State +12.5
The Arizona State Sun Devils just cannot get any respect from the books. They have opened 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their eight games this season, yet they are still catching 12.5 points against the Kansas Jayhawks here Sunday. It’s too much.
I realize the Jayhawks will be motivated following one of the biggest upset losses of the season. They lost to Washington 65-74 as 22-point favorites last time out. But I think that was just more of a sign of the Jayhawks being overrated than anything. And they remain overrated here Sunday.
The Sun Devils have proven themselves against some good competition. They beat Kansas State 92-90 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, Xavier 102-86 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and St. John’s 82-70 as 5-point favorites on a neutral. They are full capable of hanging with the Jayhawks today as well.
Senior guards Tra Holder and Shannon Evans average 20.3 and 18.6 points, respectively, while freshman forward Romello White averages 15.6 points and leads Arizona State on the boards with 9.3 rebounds per game. ASU small forward Mickey Mitchell, a transfer from Ohio State, is eligible and is expected to make his Sun Devils debut Sunday. The Sun Devils will give the Jayhawks a run for their money this afternoon. Take Arizona State Sunday.
|12-10-17||49ers +3 v. Texans||26-16||Win||100||95 h 53 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3
I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs. I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans.
The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal. This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer. And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now.
I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week. But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense. One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD.
Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing. He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers. His accuracy was impressive. The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone. Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team.
The Houston Texans are a mess right now. They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year. They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week. There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now.
First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer. They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week. TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans.
They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now. Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season. The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game.
San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|12-09-17||Magic v. Hawks -2||Top||110-117||Win||100||18 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2
I absolutely love this situation for the Atlanta Hawks Saturday. They just lost to Orlando in overtime on the road on December 6th 106-110. They have now had two days off to get ready for the Magic, and they’ll clearly want revenge getting them at home this time around.
Meanwhile, the Magic had to play a game last night against Denver, losing 89-103 at home. So this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 days for the Magic. That’s about as tough a situation as it gets.
The Magic are running on fumes right now as they haven’t had two days in a row off since November 16-17. They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days with three back-to-backs in there. They are short-handed right now without arguably their best player in Evan Fournier, and key 6th man Terrance Ross. Also star rookie Jonathan Isaac is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Orlando is 12-27 ATS versus teams who give up 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The Magic are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 points or more int heir previous game. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet the Hawks Saturday.
|12-09-17||Army v. Navy -2.5||Top||14-13||Loss||-115||13 h 25 m||Show|
20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Navy -2.5
Navy had won 14 straight meetings with Army before finally losing to the Black Knights 21-17 last season. But that was an awful situation for the Midshipmen, to recently moved into the AAC. They played for the AAC Championship against Temple last year and lost that game.
Normally, Navy would have two weeks to get ready for Army. But that wasn’t the case last year as the Midshipmen had to play on Championship Week, while Army got two weeks to prepare. The Black Knights took advantage of that break and pulled off the upset.
That won’t be the case this year as both teams have two weeks to prepare. And you can bet Navy wasn’t happy about having to hear about losing to Army for 365 days. Look for the Midshipmen to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to have a big brother mentality where they never want to lose to their little brother.
Let’s look at this game from a line value perspective. Navy has been favored by at least 6 points against Army in 14 consecutive meetings. They have been a double-digit favorite nine times during this stretch. Now they are only 2.5-point favorites this year, and I think the value is clearly with the Midshipmen because of it.
Sure, Army is improved at 8-3 this season, but the Black Knights have played an extremely soft schedule. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season! The best wins they have are against 6-6 teams. And they’ve lost to Tulane and North Texas.
Navy has played the much more difficult schedule, and they’ve been in every game they played. They are 6-5 this season, but all five losses came by 10 points or less, and they came to five bowl teams with four of them on the road to Memphis, UCF, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston. They played all five teams right down to the wire, including a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs.
Army outgained teams by 38 yards per game on the season while Navy outgained teams by 39 yards per game, and that’s important when you consider how much more difficult Navy’s schedule was. This game will come down to which team stops the run.
Navy gives up 4.6 yards per carry against teams that average 5.1 per carry, holding them to 0.5 yards per carry below their season averages. Army gives up 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 4.3 per carry, actually giving up 0.5 per carry more than their opponents normally average. It’s clear that the Midshipmen have the better run defense.
Army is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. poor pass defenses that allow 8.5 or more yards per attempt. Navy is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in. The Black Knights are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 games following a bye week. Bet Navy Saturday.
|12-09-17||Yale v. St Bonaventure -9.5||67-75||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -9.5
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies went 20-12 last season. They returned four starters from that team, including one of the best backcourts in the country in Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg last year) and Jaylen Adams (20.6 ppg, 6.5 apg).
Yale was expected to compete for an Ivy League title this season. But those dreams have been crushed since the Bulldogs lost two of their best players to season-ending injury. Makai Mason (16.0 ppg, in 2015-16) missed all of last season with a foot injury, and that injury didn’t heal so he will miss this season too. Jordan Bruner (8.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55 blocks last year) has also been lost for the season with a knee injury.
The Bonnies have been mighty impressive of late, going 6-1 in their last seven games. They beat Maryland on a neutral court, won three true road games all by 8 points or more against Siena, Buffalo and Canisius, and lost to TCU by 10 as 8.5-point dogs on a neutral. TCU is still unbeaten as of this writing.
Yale has been blown out on a the regular when it has taken a step up in class during its 6-5 start this season. The Bulldogs lost by 16 at Creighton, by 28 at Wisconsin, by 8 at Albany and by 26 at TCU. They also lost at home to Vermont by 6. This team isn’t capable of hanging with a team the caliber of St. Bonaventure, which is an NCAA Tournament team in my eyes.
Yale is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS versus very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points pre game over the last three years. The Bonnies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Ivy League opponents. Roll with St. Bonaventure Saturday.
|12-08-17||Oklahoma v. USC +2.5||Top||85-83||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
20* Oklahoma/USC ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +2.5
Wrong team favored here. The USC Trojans are absolutely loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 26-10 last year. They have their top eight scorers back and Bennie Boatwright, Chimezie Metu and Elijah Stewart all withdrew their names from the NBA draft to stay in school.
I think the fact that USC has already lost two games has them undervalued right now at just 4-2 on the season. But those losses came to two really good teams in Texas A&M and SMU. Oklahoma isn’t as good as either of those two teams.
I think the Sooners are overvalued due to their 6-1 start. But they haven’t beat anyone as good as USC, and this is a team that went just 10-20 last season. They do have freshman sensation Trae Young, who is averaging 28.7 points per game this season. But he is simply asked to do too much, and I don’t trust a guy that consistently shoots 35-foot 3-pointers as part of the offense.
Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 0-6 ATS when playing on Friday over the last three years. The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Trojans are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 non-conference games. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents. Roll with USC Friday.
|12-08-17||Celtics v. Spurs -2||102-105||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on San Antonio -2
The San Antonio Spurs are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight. At 17-8 on the season, the Spurs are hardly missing Kawhi Leonard. They are playing team ball with 30 assists in their last game and a ridiculous eight of their 11 players scored at least 10 points in a 117-105 win over Miami.
I think the Celtics are grossly overrated right now due to their 22-4 start to the season. You certainly are paying a tax to back them now. That’s why they have only covered two of their last five against the spread coming into this game. Now they are getting too much respect from the books again at basically a pick ‘em on the road here against one of the best teams in the NBA.
The Spurs have owned the Celtics, going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Spurs have won five straight home meetings with the Celtics dating back to 2011.
San Antonio is 25-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. Boston is 8-19 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three years. The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Friday games. Take the Spurs Friday.
|12-08-17||Kings +9 v. Pelicans||Top||116-109||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +9
The Sacramento Kings are going to want revenge from a 106-114 home loss to the Pelicans the first time these teams played. DeMarcus Cousins had a monster game against his former team, but don’t expect that to happen again. He won’t be nearly as motivated the second time around.
And Cousins is going to be asked to do a lot with the Pelicans’ best player in Anthony Davis sidelined for this one with a groin injury. Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca are also out with injuries. The Pelicans can’t be laying this kind of number with their current injury situation.
The Kings have been grossly underrated here of late as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 3-4 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat the Warriors on the road and the Lakers and Bulls at home. Three of their four losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, including their 95-101 loss in Cleveland as 12.5-point dogs last time out. It took some late Lebron James heroics to put them away.
The Kings are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. The Pelicans are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with three double-digit losses during this stretch. They are clearly missing Davis.
New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games versus teams who are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three seasons. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Kings Friday.
|12-07-17||Thunder v. Nets OVER 214.5||95-100||Loss||-110||12 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nets OVER 214.5
This game is played in Mexico City tonight to showcase the NBA. The players will want to put on a show, and I look for their to be little defense played in this game. It will be played at a fast tempo as well for entertainment value.
The Nets already prefer to play at a face pace. They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 104.9 possessions per game, only behind the Lakers and Suns. They also don’t play a lick of defense. The Thunder will take advantage and will hang a big number on them.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams. They have combined for 226, 229 and 222 points in those three meetings. That’s an average of 225.7 combined points per game, which is over 11 points more than this 214.5-point total
Brooklyn is 12-3 OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons. The Nets are 28-14 OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The OVER is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons +2||Top||17-20||Win||100||34 h 43 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2
Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective. This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons. They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field. I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints.
I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week. The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings. The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game.
But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one. And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week. From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons.
Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans. The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card. And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up. They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers. If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs. So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings.
It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel. The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt.
While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints. S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans. Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta.
Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories. The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs.
The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games. Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|12-07-17||Iowa +7.5 v. Iowa State||78-84||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa +7.5
The Iowa State Cyclones have no business being favored this heavily over arch rival Iowa tonight. This is a Cyclones team that only brought back one starter and lost basically everyone from last season. They are starting from the ground-up.
It’s only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes get back to playing well after going 19-15 last year. They were expected to be much better with four returning starters, but their 4-5 start leaves a lot to be desired. Granted, the schedule has not been easy.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes have already had to face VA Tech, Penn State and Indiana in their last three games, which resulted in three losses. I think this rough start has them undervalued.
Conversely, the Cyclones are overvalued after winning five straight. But this is a team that lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 18 at home as 13.5-point favorites prior to this streak against mostly weak competition.
Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Iowa Thursday.
|12-06-17||Warriors v. Hornets +6||101-87||Loss||-110||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +6
The Golden State Warriors are in a world of hurt right now with their injuries. It was already announced that Stephen Curry was going to miss two weeks with a bad ankle injury suffered in their last game. And this morning it was announced that Draymond Green will also sit with a shoulder injury.
Curry is the most important player on this team even though Kevin Durant won the MVP in the finals last year. He makes this team tick. And Green is perhaps the most underrated player in the NBA. No other team has a player like him. He sets the best screens and is the key to their pick and roll action with his ability to pass the ball and find open teammates. And he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA.
The Hornets just recently got their star PG Kemba Walker back in the lineups nd promptly crushed Orlando 104-94 last time out. Now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days and will be fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 12 days. They are running on fumes right now, which makes the fact that they are without Green and Curry even worse.
Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three seasons. Golden State is 9-19 ATS in road games when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|12-06-17||Drake +10 v. South Dakota||Top||65-93||Loss||-103||8 h 3 m||Show|
20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake +10
After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season.
Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season. Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring. Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch.
Drake is off to a 4-3 start this season despite playing a rough schedule. They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their three losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado, a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha and an 89-96 road loss at Wyoming in overtime as 10.5-point dogs. They are more than capable of staying within 10 points of South Dakota here Wednesday.
I think South Dakota is in a massive letdown spot here. They just played a dream game at Duke last time out and showed well, losing 80-96 as 23-point underdogs. Now they will have a hard time getting back up emotionally to face Drake. I think they’ll be flat most the game and will be lucky to squeak out a win, let alone win by double-digits.
Drake is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Drake is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4 or more boards per game over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Drake Wednesday.
|12-06-17||Middle Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -2||66-63||Loss||-115||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2
The Vanderbilt Commodores will be hungry for a win tonight. They have opened 3-5 against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to the likes of USC, Virginia, Seton Hall, Kansas State and Belmont. They also haven’t covered a single spread this season, which has them undervalued.
But it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense they would be struggling like this because they brought back three starters and three double-digit scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance. This is a team that made the NCAA Tournament in Bryce Drew’s first season last year, a feat that had never been accomplished previously in Vanderbilt history.
I think the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders get a lot of respect because they made the NCAA Tournament the past two years and made some noise. But they loss two of their core players from those two teams in JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg last year) and Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg). They aren’t nearly as strong as the last two versions.
Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a home favorite. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings between these teams. Roll with Vanderbilt Wednesday.
|12-06-17||Mavs +9.5 v. Celtics||Top||90-97||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +9.5
The tax you have to pay to back the Boston Celtics right now is very steep. That’s because they have opened 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS through their first 25 games of the season. You are going to be getting no discounts on them with the betting public catching on already.
Conversely, you can get a great price on the Dallas Mavericks due to their 7-17 SU & 10-14 ATS start. But they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are a much better team than that record would indicate.
Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have beaten Milwaukee by 32, Oklahoma City by 16, the Clippers by 26 and the Nuggets by 17 during this streak. They are not only beating teams, they are crushing them. And their three losses have all come by 8 points or fewer in their last eight games.
One of those was a 102-110 home loss in overtime to this same Celtics team on November 20th, meaning the Mavericks will be motivated for revenge just two weeks later. And the Celtics have a huge road game at San Antonio on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest.
Dallas is 26-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Boston is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off three or more consecutive home wins are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Boston. The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
|12-06-17||Kent State +23 v. Xavier||70-96||Loss||-104||7 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +23
The Xavier Musketeers are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Kent State. They are coming off a huge 89-76 home win over their biggest rivals in the Cincinnati Bearcats. That game is a war every year, and they certainly won’t be nearly as excited to play Kent State tonight.
I also think the Musketeers are way overvalued right now due to going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games of the season. The betting public has caught on to this ranked team, and you won’t be getting many bargains with them in the near future.
The Kent State Golden Flashes are expected to compete for a MAC title this season. They went 22-14 last year and returned three starters from that team, including Jaylin Walker (15.8 ppg). They also return four key reserves and have a ton of experience coming back. They are off to a 5-3 start this season.
Xavier is 0-6 ATS off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last two seasons. Kent State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. MAC foes. Take Kent State Wednesday.
|12-05-17||Wizards v. Blazers -5.5||Top||106-92||Loss||-108||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Blazers NBATV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -5.5
It’s safe to say the Portland Trail Blazers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset home losses to the Bucks and Pelicans. I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, fatigued Washington Wizards tonight.
The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an ugly 69-114 loss in Utah last night. They remain without John Wall, and have gone just 3-6 in their last nine games overall. Now they’re up against a fresh, pissed off Blazers team that has had two days off coming into this one.
The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The Wizards are 2-11 ATS versus teams who average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons. The Blazers have been talking about their lack of assists and why the offense has struggled recently, so look for them to play more team-oriented bacsketball tonight.
"That's a reflection of how our offense is struggling,” Damian Lillard said. "We're not shooting the ball as well, we're not scoring as well, and so the assists are down.” Bet the Blazers Tuesday.
|12-05-17||SMU v. TCU -3.5||83-94||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -3.5
It hasn’t taken Jamie Dixon long to turn around TCU’s program. He made an immediate impact at his alma mater last year as the Frogs went 24-15, won more than 20 games for the first time since 2004-05, and won the NIT title. Now they have all five starters back and are expected to contend for one of the top spots in the Big 12 this season.
The Horned Frogs are off to a promising 8-0 start. Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits. Now they’ll be anxious to avenge a 74-59 loss at SMU as 3-point underdogs last season. Now they are only 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch.
TCU should be a bigger favorite considering all that SMU lost in the offseason. The Mustangs lost three double-digit scorers in Semi Ojeleye (19.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Sterling Brown (13.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Ben Moore (11.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Ojeleye was a first-round pick of the Boston Celtics.
SMU is 7-2 this season, but the losses are certainly concerning. They’ve already lost to both Western Kentucky and Northern Iowa on a neutral court. Now this is the best team they have faced yet in TCU. The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with SMU. Take TCU Tuesday.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals +6||Top||23-20||Win||100||90 h 25 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +6
Let’s look at this number from a value perspective. Pittsburgh was only a 4-point home favorite over Cincinnati the first time these teams played this season. Now the Steelers are 6-point road favorites in the rematch. Factor in home-field advantage, and this line indicates the Steelers would be 12-point favorites at home if they played again right now. That’s a whopping 8-point adjustment mostly based off public perception, and it shows that the value is clearly with the Bengals.
Another reason I like the Bengals here is that their season is on the line. The Bengals have saved their season by earning back-to-back victories over Denver and Cleveland to get to 5-6 on the season. They are now just one game back of the 6-5 Ravens for the final wild card spot in the AFC. They certainly need this game more than the Steelers right now.
The Steelers showed last week that they are vulnerable. The Packers gave them all they wanted in a 31-28 victory on a last-second field goal. The Steelers are 14-point favorites in that game. They let Brett Hundley do whatever he wanted. Their defense is missing several key players, including CB Joe Haden. Not to mention, S Mike Mitchell, LB Ryan Shazier, CB Cam Sutton and LB James Harrison are all questionable.
Now the Steelers will be up agains the underrated Andy Dalton, who actually has a better quarterback rating than Carson Wentz does over the past five weeks. Dalton is completing 62% of his passes for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.
I would argue that the Bengals have the better defense right now. They are giving up just 19.5 points per game on the season, including 17.6 points per game at home. The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranking right up there with the Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens and Eagles. This is an elite defense and one that doesn’t get the respect that some of these other top defenses do.
It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh star receiver Antonio Brown has a nagging toe injury that forced him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday. He is going to be a game-time decision. Jeremy Fowler reported that the Steelers are preparing to play without him. Martavis Bryant would stay in his role, while JuJu Smith-Shuster would likely take Brown’s role if it came to it.
The Steelers might be wise to rest Brown given their positioning. They are tied with the Patriots are 9-2, and 3rd place in the AFC is 7-4. So even if they lost this game they would still be in line for a first-round bye. They would also be in line for home-field advantage because they actually host New England in three weeks. They get three of their final four games at home. So as long as they win out following a loss this week, they would still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December games. Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Marvin Lewis is 33-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-04-17||Cavs v. Bulls +9.5||113-91||Loss||-115||18 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak. But they are just 5-6 ATS during this streak as most of those wins have been close. In fact, nine of those 11 wins have come by 11 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer.
Conversely, the Bulls are undervalued right now due their 8-game losing streak, so it’s the perfect storm. But six of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less. And they have had some really hard luck of late, losing their last four games by 1, 1, 5 and 7 points. This team is quietly improving under Fred Hoiberg.
The Bulls have been a thorn in Cleveland’s side in recent years. In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. They only lost 112-119 in Cleveland as 15-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on October 24th. The Bulls are actually 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with Cleveland!
The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS as a favorite this season. Cleveland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 when playing against a team with a winning % of 25% or worse. Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with the Bulls Monday.
|12-04-17||Nets +2 v. Hawks||110-90||Win||100||18 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +2
The Brooklyn Nets fit one of my favorite situations to play in the NBA. This is a home-and-home situation between the Nets and Hawks. They just played on Saturday with the Hawks pulling the 114-102 upset in Brooklyn. Now, it’s revenge time for the Nets, who will clearly be the more motivated team in the rematch.
There’s no question the Nets are simply the better team. They are 8-14 on the season compared to 5-17 for Atlanta. The telling stat is that Brooklyn is 14-8 ATS in 22 games this year, including 8-4 ATS in road games. This team has been undervalued all season, and they should not be underdogs here after being 4.5-point home favorites against the Hawks on Saturday.
The Nets are 41-22 ATS in their last 63 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Brooklyn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days’ rest. The Hawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record are 78-45 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Nets Monday.
|12-04-17||Michigan v. Ohio State -1.5||62-71||Win||100||17 h 45 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites against the Michigan Wolverines in this Big Ten matchup Monday. I think this is a Buckeyes team on the rise under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann.
The Buckeyes are off to a 6-3 start against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to Gonzaga, Butler and Clemson, and wins over Stanford and Wisconsin. The 83-58 win as 7.5-point dogs at Wisconsin was mighty impressive on Saturday and shows just how undervalued this team is right now.
Michigan has played a much softer schedule to this point and is 7-2. The Wolverines lost a lot from last year’s team that won the Big Ten Tournament and made a run in the NCAA Tournament. They only beat Central Michigan by 7 at home, lost to one of the worst teams in the SEC in LSU, and were blown out by 15 at UNC.
Ohio State has won 14 of its last 17 home meetings with Michigan. Michigan is 5-14 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. Ohio State is 9-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons. The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Ohio State Monday.
|12-03-17||Eagles v. Seahawks +6||Top||10-24||Win||100||66 h 25 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +6
What would this line have been before the season? Seattle -7 is my guess. That’s how much the public perception of these two have changed heading into Week 13 of the season. Certainly the Eagles have earned that respect with their 10-1 record, but they should not be favored by 6 points in Seattle this week. The value is clearly with the home underdog Seahawks.
The Seahawks haven’t been blown out all year. They are 7-4 with all four losses coming by 8 points or less. They haven’t lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points. Russell Wilson always keeps his team in games. He is guiding a Seattle offense that is putting up 28.8 points, 413 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play at home this season.
A lot has been made about the injuries to Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have actually played very well in their past two games despite the injuries. They have given up fewer than 300 total yards in four straight games. They allowed just 244 to Washington, 290 to Arizona, 279 to Arizona and 280 to San Francisco. These injuries haven’t affected their defense as much as the media is letting on.
I realize the Seahawks have lost two straight home games, but they were two fluky losses. They outgained the Redskins by 193 yards in their 14-17 loss and they outgained the Falcons by 81 yards in their 31-34 loss. I think those misleading finals, clearly two games the Seahawks should have won, have them undervalued right now. And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t lost three straight home games since 2008.
Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season, and that’s why the betting public just loves them right now. And they have won four straight games by 20-plus points. But all four came against cupcakes in Denver, San Francisco, Chicago and a Dallas team that was a mess at the time they played them. And four of the last five games for the Eagles have been at home. It will be much more difficult for them to play at such a high level on the road here against the 12th man in Seattle. This is a huge step up in class for the Eagles.
Pete Caroll is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle. Carroll is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry as the coach of the Seahawks. The Seahawks are 20-6 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in December games over the past six seasons. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Philadelphia.
Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take the Seahawks Sunday.
|12-03-17||Warriors v. Heat UNDER 219||123-95||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Heat NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 219.
Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Miami Heat Sunday. The Warriors are 5th in defensive efficiency, while the Heat are 12th.
With the Heat playing at home today, they will control the tempo. And their best chance to win is to limit possessions. The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo as it is, ranking tied for 20th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.
The recent series history really shows there is value with the UNDER. Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings over the past two seasons. They have combined for 177, 207 and 202 points in those three games for an average of 195.3 combined points per game. That’s a whopping 24 points less than tonight’s posted total of 219.5, showing there is real value with the UNDER.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games overall. The UNDER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 after allowing 100 points or more int heir previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-17||Rams v. Cardinals +7||Top||32-16||Loss||-105||62 h 20 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +7
The spot for the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t be worse. They are coming off two straight huge games against the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints the past two weeks. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Arizona Cardinals now.
Not to mention, the Rams play the Eagles next week and the Seahawks the following week, so this is a massive lookahead spot of them. This is the sandwich game here against the Cardinals, and I just don’t think they will have the focus or energy it’s going to take to put Arizona away by more than a touchdown.
Conversely, this is a huge game for the Cardinals. They sit at 5-6 right now and a win here would keep them in the playoff hunt. They picked up a big 27-24 upset win over the Jaguars last week, limiting the Jaguars to just 229 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort.
Blaine Gabbert has given this offense new life, scoring 21 and 27 points against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, the past two weeks. He went 22-of-34 for 244 yards against Houston and 22-of-38 for 236 yards against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense. He has played so well that head coach Bruce Arians has given him a vote of confidence for possibly being their starter next season.
Speaking of Arians, I love backing his teams when they are home underdogs. In fact, Arians is 11-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached. His teams are actually winning these games by 3.0 points per game on average. His teams simply come to play against the best teams when they are counted out at home.
The Cardinals will want revenge from their 33-0 loss to the Rams in London in their first meeting this season. Carson Palmer got hurt in that game and it spiraled out of control. The Rams probably just feel like they have to show up to win, so they won’t be as focused as Arizona here.
And from a value standpoint, it’s easy to see that the value is with the Cardinals when you compare this line to the line in London. The Rams were only 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in London. Now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch. When you factor in home-field advantage, this is basically a 7-point adjustment as the line says the Rams would be -10 on a neutral now. The value is clearly with Arizona. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-03-17||Kansas State v. Vanderbilt -1||84-79||Loss||-110||7 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1
Bryce Drew became the first head coach in Vanderbilt history to make the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament in his first season last year. He returned three starters from that team and three double-digits scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, (13.9 ppg), Jeff Roberson (10.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Riley LaChance (10.5 ppg, 48.6% 3-pointers).
I think the Commodores are being way undervalued right now due to starting 3-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their first seven games. But they have played a brutal schedule with their four losses coming to Belmont, USC, Virginia and Seton Hall. They are clearly battle-tested and ready to take down Kansas State.
Conversely, Kansas State is being overvalued due to its 6-1 start. But the schedule couldn’t have been much easier as the six wins came against American, Missouri-KC, UC-Irvine, Northern Arizona, George Washington and Oral Roberts. They lost to the best team they played in Arizona State. And now the Wildcats will be playing their first true road game of the season, which is always difficult.
Drew is 10-1 ATS as a home dog or PK in all games he has coached. This line opened Kansas State -2 and has been bet to Vanderbilt -1 at this point, a full 3-point move. I think this move is warranted and the wrong team opened the favorite. The Commodores pick up a home win and cover here today. Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.
|12-03-17||49ers +3 v. Bears||15-14||Win||105||59 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3
Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the San Francisco 49ers this week is a massive upgrade at quarterback over C.J. Beathard. It’s worth at least 4 points to the line, if not more. Beathard was the worst quarterback in the NFL when he was in there. The 49ers didn’t even score a touchdown until he got hurt last week against Seattle in the closing seconds, and Garoppolo came in and threw two passes, including a touchdown pass.
The 49ers now have new life with Garoppolo at the helm. This team has shown no signs of quitting despite their 1-10 record. Keep in mind they lost five games in a row all by a field goal or less back when they had a competent QB in Brian Hoyer. Now Garopollo is an upgrade over Hoyer too. And he’s from the Chicago area, so he won’t be phased at all by the weather in Chicago.
While the outlook is positive for the 49ers right now, it couldn’t be much worse for the Bears. Fans have been calling for John Fox’s head for weeks. The Bears have now lost four straight, including their 3-31 laugher at Philadelphia last week that was the last straw for fans of the team. They were outgained by 280 yards by the Eagles and held to just 140 total yards in defeat.
The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but their defense was respectable up until the last few weeks. These injuries have made this a below-average Chicago defense now. There’s no question the 49ers are the better offensive team with Garoppolo, and they are probably the better defensive team now due to these injuries for Chicago.
Speaking of Fox, he is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. That’s right, the Bears have lost all six games outright in which they have been a favorite under his watch. They are losing these games by a shocking 9.6 points per game on average as well. Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today. Roll with the 49ers Sunday.
|12-03-17||Lions v. Ravens -2.5||20-44||Win||100||59 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Certainly the situation favors the Detroit Lions here. They come in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Baltimore Ravens are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. However, I think this situation is being factored into the line too much, and getting the Ravens as only 2.5-point favorites is an excellent value.
The Ravens are rolling right now, making their push toward the playoffs. They will rise to the occasion in this difficult situation because they are built for December football under John Harbaugh. The Ravens have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall with shutout victories over Miami (40-0) and Green Bay (23-0), a 23-16 victory over Houston and a narrow 20-23 loss at Tennessee.
The Lions are a fraudulent 6-5 team. They are getting outgained by 25 yards per game on the season and by 0.3 yards per play on the year. Their defense allowed 359.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, ranking 25th in the NFL defensively from a yards-per-play basis.
Baltimore relies heavily on one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Ravens rank 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.8) allowed, 7th in yards per game (305.7) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.0 points per game). The offense is coming around in scoring 20-plus points in six of their last seven games overall.
Matthew Stafford was hobbled with an ankle injury against Minnesota last week that forced him out of the game. He would return, but he clearly didn’t look right. Stafford is a gamer and will play through the ankle injury, but he’ll be far from 100%. And he may not have top running back Ameer Abdullah, guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson by his side this week. All three are questionable.
Jim Caldwell is 0-6 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of Detroit. The Lions are 16-38 ATS in their last 54 after having won three of their last four games. Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won two out of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|12-02-17||Pelicans v. Blazers -6||Top||123-116||Loss||-115||12 h 41 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6
The New Orleans Pelicans are in a tough spot here tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 108-114 in Utah last night. And now they will be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who left the Utah game with an ankle injury and is doubtful tonight.
The Blazers will be focused after losing 91-103 at home to Milwaukee on Thursday. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight. They are 100% healthy now, which is a big reason they’ve gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall coming in.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 home meetings with the Pelicans. The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Portland.
The Pelicans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on no rest. New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games. The Pelicans are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games following two or more consecutive overs. They are losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|12-02-17||Ohio State v. Wisconsin +6||27-21||Push||0||42 h 29 m||Show|
15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin +6
Wisconsin just can’t get any love despite being unbeaten. Sure, they have played a softer schedule than most Power 5 teams, but they’ve also taken care of business and have outgained all 12 opponents during their 12-0 start. Nothing about their 12-0 record has been fluky as all 12 wins have come by 8 points or more, including a whopping 10 wins by 14 points or more.
The oddsmakers just haven’t been able to catch up with Wisconsin down the stretch, either, because the public perception on them has been so poor. All the Badgers have done is go 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, covering the spread by a combined 45 points to absolutely demolish these spreads.
Now the Badgers are getting nearly a touchdown against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. I really think the value is with the Badgers in a game they probably win outright. You can bet head coach Paul Chryst is going to be playing the no respect card with this team. I think they are ready to take that next step and make their way into the four-team playoff.
Ohio State just gets love from the betting public because of the name on their jersey. But the Buckeyes have been far from impressive in their ‘step up’ games. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Urban Meyer ‘mystique’ is no longer there when playing these bigger games.
The Buckeyes lost at home to Oklahoma, needed a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Penn State at home, and trailed Michigan most of the way last week on the road. Not to mention, they lost 24-55 at Iowa and were outgained by 116 yards. That’s the same Iowa team that Wisconsin beat 38-14 the next week while outgaining the Hawkeyes by 316 yards.
J.T. Barrett suffered a knee injury against Michigan last week that forced him to leave the game. He then had surgery on his knee this week, but he is expected to play. That’s not a quarterback I’d want to be backing with my money with the fact that he actually had surgery the week of a game. Barrett won’t be anywhere near 100% for this game.
It’s also a revenge game for Wisconsin after losing in overtime at home to Ohio State last year. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off three straight conference wins over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons. The Badgers are 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in four straight games over the last two seasons. Take Wisconsin Saturday.
|12-02-17||Troy v. Arkansas State||32-25||Win||100||42 h 44 m||Show|
15* Troy/Arkansas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy PK
This is a huge revenge game for the Troy Trojans. Last year, they were expected to win the Sun Belt and only needed to beat Arkansas State to do so. They fell flat on their faces and lost 3-35 at home despite being 10-point favorites.
This is a Troy team that returned 14 starters from that team and a ton of experience. They are the best team in the Sun Belt in my opinion, and this is a scary team when they are motivated. Now they prove they are the best team with a win over Arkansas State here.
We saw what they could do when they were motivated when they beat LSU outright on the road as 20.5-point underdogs earlier this year. That’s an LSU team that has since gone on to go 5-1 with its only loss coming to Alabama in a game where they actually outgained the Crimson Tide.
The Trojans are the fresher team as they had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Texas State 62-9 last week. Meanwhile, Arkansas State has had to play three straight weeks and is coming off a draining 67-50 shootout win over Louisiana Monroe. I like the freshness of Troy better and the motivation of Troy better in this game.
Troy has played the tougher schedule this season, yet still has put up the better numbers. The Trojans are averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.7 yards per play on defense. To compare, Arkansas State is at 6.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense. With the Trojans having by far the superior defense, giving up 16.8 points per game this season compared to 24.2 for Arkansas State, that’s where this game is going to be decided.
Troy is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after outgaining its last two opponents by 125 or more total yards each. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Troy Saturday.
|12-02-17||Drake +10.5 v. Wyoming||89-96||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +10.5
After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season.
Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season. Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring. Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch.
Drake is off to a 4-2 start this season despite playing a rough schedule. They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their two losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado and a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha. They are more than capable of staying within 10.5 points of Wyoming here Saturday.
The Wyoming Cowboys are 5-2 this season. They have lost their two step up games to Cincinnati (53-78) and at Denver (78-88). Their 83-70 win over New Mexico Highlands in between those two losses leaves a lot to be desired. I just see no way these Cowboys should be favored by double-digits against this improving Drake squad.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Drake) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in December games are 263-177 (59.8%) ATS since 1997. The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a. Winning % above .600. Bet Drake Saturday.
|12-02-17||Hawks v. Nets OVER 218.5||114-102||Loss||-110||5 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Nets OVER 218.5
Two teams who love to push the tempo square off Saturday. The Nets rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game, while the Hawks rank 11th at 100.3 possessions per game. So this game is going to be played at a fast pace without question.
And both teams certainly aren’t concerned about playing much defense. The Nets rank 25th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.1 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks are 26th, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.
These teams already played to 220 combined points in their first and only meeting this season when the Nets won 116-104 at home on October 22nd. And they got to 220 despite that fact that Atlanta shot just 34.0% from the field.
Atlanta is 27-9 to the OVER in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive home losses. The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six home games. The OVER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-17||Virginia Tech -2 v. Ole Miss||83-80||Win||100||3 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2
Buzz Williams has his best team yet in his fourth season at Virginia Tech. The Hokies returned four starters from last season, including three who averaged 9.2 points per game or more.
The Hokies are off to a 6-1 start this season with all six since coming by 24 or more points, including impressive wins over Washington (103-79) and Iowa (79-55). The Hokies simply have to be bigger favorites today against Ole Miss.
The Ole Miss Rebels are clearly not as strong as the Hokies this season. They already have losses to Utah and South Dakota State (at home), and they have narrow home wins over Eastern Kentucky 85-75 as 17.5-point favorites and Georgia State 77-72 as 11-point favorites. They aren’t nearly in the same class as Virginia Tech.
Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons. Virginia Tech is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall. The Hokies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-02-17||Georgia Southern -2.5 v. Costal Carolina||Top||17-28||Loss||-115||35 h 14 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -2.5
Quietly, the Georgia Southern Eagles are playing their best football of the season down the stretch. They opened 0-9, but have since put together two huge efforts the past two weeks. They beat South Alabama 52-0 as 6.5-point home dogs and LA Lafayette 34-24 as 4-point road dogs, covering the spread by a combined 72.5 points!
It’s clear to me that Georgia Southern is being mis-priced in the market place right now as only 2.5-point favorites over Coastal Carolina this week. Coastal Carolina is also 2-9 on the season, but this team is nowhere near as good as Georgia Southern right now. They are getting too much respect for beating Idaho 13-7 last week, but that was an Idaho team without starting QB Matt Linehan, who means everything to the Vandals.
Coastal Carolina is now without its top two quarterbacks in Tyler Keane and Dalton Demos, who are both doubtful to play Saturday. That leaves 3rd stringer Kilton Anderson to take the snaps Saturday for the Chanticleers. Anderson went just 11-of-23 for 100 yards against Idaho last week. I see no way they can put up enough points to match Georgia Southern, which has scored a combined 86 points the past two weeks.
The Chanticleers have zero home-field advantage and there certainly won’t be many fans who turn out to watch this 2-9 team. Coastal Carolina is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season, scoring just 18.6 points per game and giving up 35.2 points per game, getting outscored by 16.6 points per game. The have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COASTAL CAROLINA) - after a game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.
|12-01-17||Wolves v. Thunder -5.5||107-111||Loss||-110||8 h 23 m||Show|
15* T’Wolves/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost three straight coming in and five of their last six overall, with coincidentally their lone win coming 108-91 over Golden State as 5-point dogs. They can turn it on when they want to.
I certainly think the Thunder will turn it on tonight considering their will be out for revenge from two losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves already this season. They lost at the buzzer 113-115 at home to Minnesota on October 22nd and 116-119 at Minnesota on October 27th. They haven’t forgotten and will be wanting to avenge those two heartbreakers.
The Timberwolves have certainly been overvalued here of late. They have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. A lot of that probably has to do with fatigue as they haven’t had two straight days off since November 9-10, and they will be playing their 12th game in 21 days here tonight.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will be playing just its 2nd game in 6 days here. Plays on favorites revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 144-90 (61.5%) ATS since 1996. Minnesota is 2-11 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Thunder Friday.
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -3||Top||28-31||Push||0||92 h 8 m||Show|
20* Stanford/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on USC -3
The USC Trojans are doing it again. After a slow start to the season just like last year, they have now reeled off four straight victories to close the season with three of those coming by double-digits. They are now 10-2 and easily the best team in the Pac-12. They prove that with a second victory over Stanford this season.
What has been most impressive about this strong finish by the Trojans is that they didn’t have a bye week all year. Their bye week came after their 12th game in Week 13 last week. That gives them a massive advantage in rest and preparation heading into the Pac-12 Championship Game getting two full weeks to prepare for Stanford.
Meanwhile, Stanford had to play a physical game Saturday night against Nortre Dame. The Cardinal won’t hat game 38-20, but that was a completely misleading final. The Fighting Irish actually outgained them 405 to 328 for the game, or by 77 total yards. But they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the key difference. I think that misleading 38-20 final has Stanford overvalued coming into this game now.
USC already beat Stanford 42-24 in their first meeting this season to end a 3-game losing streak in this series. That game was an even bigger blowout than the score showed. USC racked up a whopping 623 total yards on this Stanford defense, limiting the Cardinal to just 342 total yards and outgaining them by 281 total yards. Expect more of the same in the rematch.
The Cardinal are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Stanford is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Simply put, the Cardinal aren’t nearly as good as their 9-3 record suggests. They are actually getting outgained by 7 yards per game on the season. USC is outgaining foes by 79 yards per game on the season and is legitimately one of the best teams in the country. Bet USC Friday.
|12-01-17||Pacers v. Raptors -7.5||115-120||Loss||-105||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5
The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge against the Indiana Pacers from their 104-107 road loss at Indiana on November 24th one week ago. Now they get the Pacers at home this time around and should have no problem winning and covering.
Since that loss, the Raptors have absolutely obliterated their two opponents. They won 112-78 in Atlanta and 126-113 at home against Charlotte. And the Raptors will be rested and ready to go now as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.
The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here, and they are coming off a 97-118 loss in Houston on Wednesday night. The Pacers could be without one of their best players in forward Myles Turner, who is questionable with a knee injury.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Toronto has won its last two home meetings with Indiana by 11 and 25 points. The Pacers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 trips to Toronto. Take the Raptors Friday.
|11-30-17||Bucks v. Blazers -3||Top||103-91||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3
Quietly, the Portland Trail Blazers have gotten 100% healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result. They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, which is impressive when you consider they played six of those nine games on the road.
Now they’ve had two days off since winning 103-91 in New York on Monday. They’ll be rested and ready to go and happy to be back at home for the first time since November 18th. The Blazers have a huge home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites here against the Milwaukee Bucks.
This is a Bucks team that is not healthy right now and not playing well. The Bucks have lost three of their last five with all three losses coming by double-digits to Dallas (79-111), Washington (88-99) and Utah (108-121). Their only two wins during this stretch came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Phoenix and Sacramento.
The Blazers will want revenge from their 110-113 loss in Milwaukee on October 21st in their first meeting this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. The Blazers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Bucks haven’t won back-to-back games against Portland since 2012-13. Take the Blazers Thursday.
|11-30-17||Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys||Top||14-38||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -1.5
The Dallas Cowboys are an absolute mess right now playing without two of their best players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, among others. They have lost three straight games all via blowout, and there’s a reason they aren’t favored at home here tonight against the Redskins.
In the past three games without Elliott, their offense has sputtered. They are averaging just 7.3 points per game, 235 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Dak Prescott has thrown five interceptions in his past two games, which is more than the four he threw all of his 2016 rookie season. Opponents don’t have to respect the play-action without Elliott, so Prescott is constantly under duress.
The defense has taken a big hit without Lee, who is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers, which is saying a lot. The Cowboys have given up 30.7 points per game, 411.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three.
With Lee on the field, opponents have an 89.3 passer rating, a 42.4 total QBR, an 8-5 TD/INT ratio, average 3.5 per carry and 1.6 yards before first contact. With Lee off the field this season, opponents have a 107.1 passer rating, a 69.2 total QBR, a 10-0 TD/INT ratio, average 5.8 yards per carry and 3.6 yards before first contact.
The Redskins have fought through injuries in recent weeks to go 2-2 with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants, and narrow losses to the Vikings and Saints. They limited the Giants to just 170 total yards in their 20-10 win last week. They are now getting healthier and should have a few more pieces back this week.
Kirk Cousins is playing great football with the second-most passing yards (3,038) in the league. Cousins has torched the Cowboys for 625 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two starts against them. Samaje Perine has rushed for 100-plus yards in consecutive games and has found his role in this offense. The Redskins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas.
The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the past three seasons. Jason Garrett is 0-9 ATS in home game after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home game after a low by 10 points or more as the coach of Dallas. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Washington. Bet the Redskins Thursday.
|11-30-17||Texas Tech v. Seton Hall -1.5||79-89||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/Seton Hall CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Seton Hall -1.5
The Seton Hall Pirates are absolutely loaded this season. They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season. They returned each of their top four scorers and four guys who scored in double-digits last year, including three players who scored at least 15.2 points per game.
The Pirates are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point to Rhode Island in a game that the Rams simply won due to getting hot from the 3-point line. They beat Indiana by 16 and Vanderbilt by 13 this season and are legitimately one of the best teams in the Big East this season, if not in the entire country.
I think Texas Tech is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to its 6-0 start. But the schedule has been extremely soft with home wins over South Alabama, Maine, Wofford and Savannah State, and neutral court wins against Boston College and Northwestern. This is a big step up in class here for the Red Raiders and I don’t expect them to handle it well.
Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off three straight wins by 15 points or more. The Red Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games. Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 neutral site games. The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big East opponents. Roll with Seton Hall Thursday.
|11-29-17||Miami-FL v. Minnesota -5||86-81||Loss||-104||9 h 9 m||Show|
15* Miami/Minnesota ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5
Richard Pitino has a real contender here in Minnesota. This is his best team yet with five returning starters from last year. They have certainly looked the part of Big Ten contenders up to this point.
The Gophers have opened 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. Six of their seven wins have come by 12 points or more, with the lone exception being an 89-84 win over a very solid Alabama team as 4.5-point favorites. They won at Providence 86-74 as 2.5-point dogs.
The Miami Hurricanes are also 5-0 this season, but their schedule has been so soft that they have only had one lined game. Their five wins have come against Gardner Webb, Navy, Florida A&M, LaSalle and North Florida. This will be their first true road game of the season.
Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Gophers are 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 7-plus per game over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Roll with Minnesota Wednesday.
|11-29-17||Nets v. Mavs -5.5||109-104||Loss||-105||9 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5
The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Their only two losses came to Boston (in OT) and San Antonio (by 7 on the road), two of the best teams in the league.
Their three wins were mighty impressive, too. They beat Milwaukee 111-79 as 6-point home underdogs. The upset Memphis 95-94 as 6-point road dogs. And they crushed Oklahoma City 97-81 as 6-point home dogs. This is a team we clearly want to be betting on right now.
Conversely, the Brooklyn Nets are a team we want to be fading due to their injury situation. The Nets are playing without four of their best players in Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe right now. Not to mention, DeMarre Carroll is dealing with a respiratory illness. I see no way they are even competitive tonight.
The Nets will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and they are just 14-28 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons. Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.
|11-29-17||Thunder -5.5 v. Magic||Top||108-121||Loss||-110||8 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight. After upsetting the Warriors 108-91 at home, they clearly had a letdown in losing back-to-back games to the Pistons and Mavericks. Now they’ve had three days off since losing to Dallas and will be rested and ready to go tonight.
"I think that the last two games, coming after the Warriors game, we just really haven't gotten going offensively," Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. "In periods of time, we just really haven't gotten going. At some point, and hopefully soon, we can get it going offensively.”
The Thunder should be able to get right against an Orlando Magic team that is 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Magic have rarely been competitive during this skid, losing six times by double-digits. I think you can chalk up another double-digit loss here tonight.
The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Oklahoma City is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Orlando is 9-22-1 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|11-28-17||Nuggets v. Jazz -1.5||77-106||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5
|11-28-17||Suns v. Bulls +1||Top||104-99||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls +1
|11-28-17||Utah State +7.5 v. Valparaiso||65-72||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +7.5
|11-27-17||Texans v. Ravens -7||16-23||Push||0||34 h 13 m||Show|
15* Texans/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
|11-27-17||Pistons +7 v. Celtics||Top||118-108||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7
|11-27-17||Cavs v. 76ers +1||113-91||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* Cavs/76ers NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1
|11-26-17||North Carolina v. Michigan State -1||45-63||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* UNC/Michigan State ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1
|11-26-17||Nets v. Grizzlies OVER 210.5||98-88||Loss||-105||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies OVER 210.5
|11-26-17||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||20-26||Win||100||113 h 32 m||Show|
20* Saints/Rams NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5
|11-26-17||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||24-13||Loss||-115||39 h 41 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7
|11-26-17||Bears +14 v. Eagles||3-31||Loss||-110||95 h 32 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14
|11-25-17||Clippers v. Kings +4.5||97-95||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +4.5
|11-25-17||Washington State +10.5 v. Washington||14-41||Loss||-110||23 h 44 m||Show|
15* Washington State/Washington Apple Cup No-Brainer on Washington State +10.5
|11-25-17||Alabama v. Minnesota -3.5||84-89||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Minnesota Top 25 No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5
|11-25-17||Duke +12 v. Wake Forest||Top||31-23||Win||100||66 h 18 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +12
|11-25-17||Indiana v. Purdue -2.5||Top||24-31||Win||100||70 h 37 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5
|11-24-17||Pistons +8.5 v. Thunder||Top||99-98||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +8.5
|11-24-17||Virginia Tech v. Virginia +7.5||10-0||Loss||-120||32 h 15 m||Show|
15* VA Tech/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Virginia +7.5