|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-14-21||Panthers +10.5 v. Cardinals||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 2 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1. And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.
The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value. The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites. They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers. And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green. Colt McCoy had a career game.
I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat. And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable. Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.
This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum. But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover. Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500. And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.
The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week. Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.
Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game. They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play. They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold. The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.
This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals. They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans. They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall. Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week. They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six. Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.
Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites. Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-14-21||South Dakota State -2 v. Stephen F Austin||83-71||Win||100||4 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -2
It's a good time to 'buy low' on South Dakota State after their 88-104 loss at Alabama on Saturday. Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss. Look for them to dominate Stephen F. Austin like they dominated Bradley in an 81-65 win as a 9-point favorite in their opener.
South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season. The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play. And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year. They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.
Stephen F. Austin is tabbed 5th in the preseason WAC predictions. While they return four starters, they do lose one of their best players in Cameron Johnson (15.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG). And the first two games by SF Austin were ugly wins against teams they should have blown out, which is a bad sign of things to come. They only beat LSU-Alexandria 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63. Neither of those games even had betting lines.
The Jackrabbits are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. South Dakota State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Jackrabbits are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Lumberjacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs. Stephen F. Austin is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Take South Dakota State Sunday.
|11-14-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10||19-29||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season. They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.
Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least. They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to. They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.
Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season. The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints. They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites. Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.
That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense. They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week. Chris Godwin is also questionable. So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season. Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Washington Sunday.
|11-14-21||Browns +2.5 v. Patriots||7-45||Loss||-102||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Browns +2.5
The Browns were as healthy as they have been in a long time last week. It showed when they beat the Bengals 41-16 on the road in a dominant effort. Their secondary is finally healthy, and the offense showed what it could do without Odell Beckham Jr., continuing to play better without him as a distraction. I think their solid play carries over into this week against the Patriots.
I believe the Browns are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs. And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Patriots after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. Mac Jones gets a lot of love but it's not like he's been that great this season with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio.
The Patriots need to be able to run the ball to be successful. But they'll be up against an elite Cleveland front seven that can stop the run. The Browns rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 84.8 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. New England will be without top running back Damian Harris for this one as well, putting more pressure on Jones to make plays.
Like I said, this Browns secondary is healthy now and made life miserable on Joe Burrow last week. I think this Cleveland defense will shut down the Patriots as well. The Browns average 160 rushing yards per game and have proven they can still run it successfully even without Nick Chubb.
The Patriots give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that normally average 98 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry. I don't think they are that good against the run, they just haven't played many great running teams. This will be their toughest test yet trying to stop the run.
Home-field advantage has been non-existent for the Patriots this season. They are actually 1-4 SU at home with their only win coming against the lowly New York Jets. The Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road with their only non-cover coming in a huge comeback win by the Chargers, 47-42.
New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|11-14-21||Florida State -1 v. Florida||Top||55-71||Loss||-110||2 h 4 m||Show|
20* FSU/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -1
Leonard Hamilton is enjoying his best run in his 19 years at Florida State. The Seminoles don't rebuild, they reload because he's a tremendous recruiter. And he has taken advantage of the transfer portal again this season to reload.
The Seminoles are off to a great start this season with their 105-70 win over Pennsylvania as a 19.5-point favorite, covering by 15.5 points. Florida only beat Elon 74-61 as a 19-point favorite, failing to cover by 6 points. And the Gators lost two players to the NBA in the offseason and are coming off a disappointing 15-10 season as it is.
Florida State simply owns Florida. The Seminoles have gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Gators. They have also won seven in a row straight up in this series with the last four coming by 12, 12, 21 and 17 points. Bet Florida State Sunday.
|11-13-21||Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 220.5||102-129||Loss||-103||12 h 45 m||Show|
15* Timberwolves/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, this will be the 3rd meeting between the Timberwolves and Clippers since November 3rd, a span of just 11 days. They know how to defend one another, and defense will win out in this 3rd meeting tonight.
After a shootout in their first meeting that saw the Clippers shoot 60.3% overall and 58.3% from 3-point range, they came back to win 104-84 in the rematch for just 188 combined points. And I think we see a similar low scoring game here, especially after the Timberwolves just beat the Lakers 107-83 last night and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The reason the Clippers are playing so well this season is because they have bought in defensively. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves are also improved on defense, ranking 15th at 104.7 points per 100 possessions. Both teams are below average in offensive efficiency, especially the Timberwolves who rank 25th.
The UNDER is 12-4 in Timberwolves last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Los Angeles. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (LA Clippers) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 37-13 (74%) since 1996. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-13-21||Texas +7.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||74-86||Loss||-109||12 h 34 m||Show|
20* Texas/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +7.5
Chris Beard was a great hire at Texas and one of my favorite head coaches in the country. I'll gladly back Beard and the Longhorns here against overrated Gonzaga tonight. The Longhorns were impressive in their 92-48 win over Houston Baptist in their opener, covering as 37.5-point favorites.
Texas welcomes back Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Courtney Ramsey (12.2 PPG) this year. They brought in some unbelievable transfers. Timmy Allen averaged 17.2 PPG at Utah last year, Marcus Carr had four 30-point games at Minnesota last year, Tre Mitchell averaged 18.8 PPG at UMass last year and Christian Bishop averaged 11.0 PPG at Creighton last year. All six played significant roles in the opener with Ramey leading the way with 14 points, followed by Jones (11), Carr (10), Bishop (10), Mitchell (10) and Allen (8).
Gonzaga failed to cover as a 39.5-point favorite in a 34-point win over Dixie State in the opener. With their No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to. That's especially the case after losing three starters and studs from last year's team in Corey Kispert (18.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG), Jalen Suggs (14.4 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Joel Ayayi (12.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG). Bet Texas Saturday.
|11-13-21||TCU +12.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||17-63||Loss||-110||32 h 18 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on TCU +12.5
The firing of Gary Patterson lit a fire under the TCU Horned Frogs. It also helped that they one of the best interim head coaches possible in Jerry Kill. He guided the Horned Frogs to a 30-28 upset win over Baylor as 7.5-point underdogs last week. And I think they give a big effort again this week against Oklahoma State.
The win over Baylor wasn't fluky at all. The Horned Frogs racked up 562 total yards and held the Bears to just 393 yards, outgaining them by 169 yards. QB Chandler Morris went 29-of-41 for 461 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score. Look out for him here down the stretch in the Big 12 after that performance.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Oklahoma State after opening 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and massively exceeding expectations. Now they are laying double-digits here against TCU when they shouldn't be. While the Cowboys have a great defense, their offense leaves a lot to be desired and makes it difficult to cover these kinds of numbers.
They average just 28.8 points per game, 382.4 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. To compare, TCU is putting up 31.3 points, 450.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. They are at a disadvantage on defense, but they can more than make up for it on offense this week.
Plays on any team (TCU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 points or more with 4 or more starters returning than their opponent are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with TCU Saturday.
|11-13-21||76ers v. Pacers -3.5||Top||113-118||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5
The Indiana Pacers have finally started to play up to their potential now that they have gotten healthy. They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with both losses coming on the road to Portland by 4 and Denver by 3.
The Pacers have four impressive wins during this stretch. They beat the Spurs by 13 as 3-point home favorites, upset the Knicks by 13 as 1-point home underdogs, upset the Kings by 3 as 2.5-point road dogs, and upset the Jazz by 11 as 10.5-point road dogs. Now I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers at home tonight.
The 76ers went on a great run in going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS over a six-game stretch when mostly healthy. But they have been overvalued since, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight home losses to the Knicks by 7, Bucks by 9 and Raptors by 6. They remain without Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle. The key is being without Embiid, who is an MVP candidate and irreplaceable on their team.
The Pacers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a win as a road underdog of 6 points or more. The 76ers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games as road underdogs. Indiana is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Philadelphia. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|11-13-21||Evansville v. Belmont -13.5||43-81||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday BLOWOUT on Belmont -13.5
The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year. Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation. I think we are getting good value on them after getting upset in their opener by a very good Ohio team from that MAC that just had a great shooting night.
The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team. They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally. This is a team that will be highly motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after not playing in it the past two seasons. They'll also be extra motivated off that loss to Ohio.
Look for the Bruins to make easy work of a mediocre Evansville team that lost by 22 at Cincinnati in their opener. Belmont is better than Cincinnati. This is an Evansville team that went 9-16 last year. I'm not a fan of head coach Todd Lickliter, who is now 9-29 in his two seasons at the helm of the Purple Aces.
Belmont is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games overall. The Purple Aces are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. Evansville is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. Take Belmont Saturday.
|11-13-21||Georgia v. Tennessee +20.5||41-17||Loss||-110||28 h 56 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee +20.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Georgia Bulldogs due to being 9-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country. That record and ranking has them overvalued as the betting public continues to back them and push these spreads higher than they should be down the stretch. Missouri covered against them last week, and I expect Tennessee to cover this 20.5-point spread this week.
This looks like Georgia's toughest test of the season to date. Tennessee is no joke. The Volunteers are 5-4 this season with losses to Pitt by 7 and Ole Miss by 5. They did lose by more to Florida and Alabama, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. And I think they can take Georgia to the wire this week.
Tennessee boasts one of the best offenses in the country in averaging 38.2 points, 457.1 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They are averaging 8.6 points, 77 yards and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow on the season. And their defense is better than it gets credit for, holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play.
The key here is Tennessee's defense has been good at stopping the run. They give up just 3.8 yards per carry this season. That should help them slow down a Georgia rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Their ability to stop the run will keep them in this game for four quarters, and Georgia hasn't seen an offense this good all season, especially not one that plays at the kind of pace that Tennessee does. I expect the Bulldogs to give up their largest point total of the season. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|11-13-21||UL-Lafayette v. Troy +7||Top||35-21||Loss||-115||28 h 48 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Troy +7
I love the spot for the Troy Trojans this week. They sit at 5-4 and with a chance to clinch bowl eligibility. They are also just one game back in the Sun Belt East division and very much alive to win the conference title. That makes this kind of their 'National Championship' game this weekend.
Meanwhile, it's just another game for Louisiana-Lafayette. The Rajin' Cajuns are 8-1 this season and 6-0 in Sun Belt play. They just clinched the West Division title with their 21-17 win over Georgia State last week. Second place is just 2-3 in the division as it's by far the weaker of the two divisions. I question their motivation the rest of the way.
Louisiana is nowhere near as good as its 8-1 record, either. The Rajin' Cajuns have won so many close games this year. They beat Nicholls State by 3 as 26-point favorites, Georgia Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12-point favorites, Arkansas State by 1 as 17-point favorites and Georgia State by 4 as 13.5-point favorites. That's five wins against five bad teams all by one score. I think this game will be decided by one score, too.
Troy has a tendency of playing in close games, too. Five of the Trojans' nine games have been decided by one score. Eight of their nine games have been decided by 13 points or less with the lone exception behind their 55-3 win over Southern in the opener.
Troy has a great defense that keeps it in games. The Trojans give up just 21.8 points per game, 316.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. The key to stopping Louisiana is stopping their rushing attack that averages 204 yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Well, Troy has the antidote with a run defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry.
The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Trojans are 3-1 at home this season. They showed they could play with the big boys in this conference as they went on the road and only lost to Coastal Carolina 28-35 as 17-point underdogs. And now they'll give the Rajin' Cajuns a run for their money this weekend. Take Troy Saturday.
|11-13-21||Miami-FL v. Florida State OVER 60.5||28-31||Loss||-110||28 h 46 m||Show|
15* Miami/Florida State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5
The Miami Hurricanes are rolling offensive right now behind freshman sensation quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games behind Van Dyke. He is completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,877 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season. Their offense has also gone for 420 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.
Florida State got good news this week with the return of QB Jordan Travis after he sat out last game against NC State. Travis is completing 62.9% of his passes with an 11-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 340 yards and four scores and his dual-threat ability makes this FSU offense much more dynamic.
Both defenses have been disappointing this season and the offenses should steal the show in this rivalry game. The Seminoles allow 27.0 points per game this season against a weak schedule of opposing offenses. This Miami offense may be the best they've seen all season. The Hurricanes allow 30.4 points and 405.3 yards per game on the season.
The OVER is 5-1 in Miami's last six games overall with combined scores of 58 or more points in all six games and 61 or more points in five of them. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-13-21||New Mexico State +52 v. Alabama||Top||3-59||Loss||-110||71 h 1 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +52
Alabama always gets a cupcake out of conference opponent late in the year. And I almost always fade them in this spot. I'm going to do it again this year with New Mexico State this week.
Alabama just played a huge rivalry game with LSU last week and struggled to a 20-14 victory. Now they got Arkansas on deck next week. They won't be looking to run up the score on New Mexico State as they always seem to take it easy on these opponents that are just looking for a paycheck.
New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to back this season. They have just one win this season but their record has them undervalued. That's why they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They haven't lost a single game by more than 27 points this season.
I had a really bad beat on the Aggies last week. They were getting 18.5 points and were up 13-7 on Utah State at halftime. But they got outscored 26-0 in the 2nd half and failed to cover by 3.5 points. They squandered several opportunities deep in Utah State territory. They were only outgained by 110 yards.
In fact, they have only been outgained by more than 110 yards just once in their past eight games. They have been competitive in the stats due to an offense that has produced at least 345 yards in 8 straight games. And this offense is capable of putting up a couple scores on this Alabama defense to stay within the number. And I like that the Aggies are still fresh after having a bye prior to that Utah State game.
Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games against bad defensive teams that allow 450 or more total yards per game. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Give me the Aggies and all these points against an Alabama team that will be looking to play backups and burn clock in the 2nd half. Bet New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-13-21||Oklahoma v. Baylor +6||14-27||Win||100||24 h 17 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Baylor FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +6
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Oklahoma Sooners. They are a fraudulent 9-0 this season with five wins coming by one score. I think there's a good chance this game is decided by a single score, so there's value in getting the Baylor Bears catching 6 points at home Saturday.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Baylor after their 28-30 upset home loss to TCU. I don't think they took TCU seriously because they had just fired their head coach leading into that game. And the Bears couldn't help but look ahead to this game against Oklahoma, and it costs them. Now this is their 'National Championship' and we should get an 'A' effort from the Bears this week.
No question the Bears have the numbers of an elite team. They average 36.3 points, 457.4 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play on offense. They give up 20.6 points per game, 364.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense. They outscore their opponents by 15.7 points per game, outgain them by 93.6 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.
When you compare those numbers to Oklahoma, they are very similar and this line should be close to a PK with perhaps Baylor actually favored. Oklahoma outgain opponents by 95.4 yards per game and 1.5 yards per play. The Sooners outscore their opponents by 18.7 points per game. And keep in mind Baylor has played the tougher schedule up to this point having already played Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Oklahoma still has to play the three other best teams in the conference in Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State the next three weeks.
Plays on home teams (Baylor) - a good rushing team (190-230 RYPG) against an average rushing team (140-190 RYPG) after 7-plus games, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Baylor is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Sooners. Take Baylor Saturday.
|11-13-21||Rutgers +7 v. Indiana||38-3||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +7
The Indiana Hoosiers came into the season ranked in the Top 25. They have fallen flat on their faces and currently sit at 2-7 on the season after losing 29-7 to Michigan last week. The Hoosiers now won't be going bowling, and I question their motivation the rest of the way.
Rutgers is highly motivated to get to a bowl game. They sit at 4-5 on the season and close with Maryland at home. This is a very winnable game for them and I think they'll be 'all in' here to get it. Their 'A' effort should be good enough to cover this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.
Indiana has been held to 0, 7, 7 and 15 points in four of its last five games. The Hoosiers don't have the offense to get margin, so asking them to cover this 7-point spread is asking a lot. Rutgers has a very good defense that can hold this Indiana offense in check as well.
The Scarlet Knights allow 24.9 points per game on the season, while the Hoosiers give up 31.3 points per game. Rutgers scores 21.3 points per game while Indiana scores 20.3 points per game. So when you look at the numbers, it's clear Rutgers is the better team this season. They should not be catching nearly this many points, if any points at all, especially given the favorable motivational situation for them compared to the Hoosiers.
The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall. Greg Schiano is 29-13 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach. Schiano is 16-2 ATS in his last 18 road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|11-12-21||Villanova +4 v. UCLA||77-86||Loss||-107||14 h 21 m||Show|
15* Villanova/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Villanova +4
It's a good time to 'sell high' on UCLA early in the season after their miraculous run to the Final Four last season. They were lucky to even make the tournament, and needed an unlikely comeback against Michigan State in the First Four just to advantage. They rode that momentum all the way to the Final Four.
But now the Bruins come into the season as the No. 2 ranked team in the country. And they already covered in a 95-58 win over lowly CS-Bakersfield as a 23-point favorites. But now they come back as 4-point favorites against Villanova despite being without one of their best post players on Cody Riley (10.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) last year.
I think Villanova is the legitimate of the Top 5 teams here as they are ranked 4th. The Wildcats return four starters from last season and get back Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) from injury. They also bring back Justin Moore (12.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG), Caleb Daniels (9.6 PPG) and Jermaine Samuels (12.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG).
All four played big roles in their 91-51 win as a 25.5-point favorite over Mount St. Mary's in their opener. Moore had 27 points, Samuels 17, Gillespie 13 and Daniels 6. They also got 17 points from Brandon Slater, a key returnee off the bench who drilled five 3-pointers as the Wildcats shot 16-of-30 from beyond the arc. They have one of the best backcourts in the country, per usual, and it will likely lead them to an outright win at UCLA tonight. Roll with Villanova Friday.
|11-12-21||Wolves v. Lakers OVER 224||107-83||Loss||-102||15 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 224
The Timberwolves and Lakers are OVER teams right now. The Lakers rank 1st in the NBA in pace while the Timberwolves rank 9th in pace. And Minnesota plays at an even faster pace when De'Angelo Russell is in the lineup, while the Lakers play at a faster pace without LeBron James.
Russell has played the last two games for the Timberwolves and it's no surprise both have been shootouts that went OVER the total. They lost 118-125 at Memphis for 243 combined points and 110-123 at Golden State for 233 combined points.
The Lakers have played in two straight shootouts without LeBron. They won 126-123 over Charlotte for 249 combined points and 120-117 over Miami for 237 combined points. The last time these teams met the Lakers won 137-121 for 258 combined points in their final meeting last season. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-12-21||Mavs v. Spurs +2.5||Top||123-109||Loss||-103||13 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are playing up to their potential of late in going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. And I love the spot for them tonight playing with double-revenge against the Dallas Mavericks after losing each of the first two meetings this season.
Indeed, the Spurs lost 99-104 on the road and 108-109 at home in the two meetings, which both went down to the wire. They should not be underdogs considering they will be the more motivated team, and they are better than their 4-7 record would suggest as they are actually outscoring opponents by 2.1 points per game on the season.
Conversely, Dallas isn't as good as its 7-4 record would suggest. The Mavericks have actually been outscored by 3.0 points per game on the season, so they are very fortunate to have that record. I don't like Jason Kidd as a head coach, and I don't like the fact that the Mavericks have to rely on Luka Doncic too much on the offensive end because he doesn't have much talent around him.
The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. San Antonio is 43-17 ATS in its last 60 Friday games. Bet the Spurs Friday.
|11-12-21||Kent State +10 v. Xavier||Top||59-73||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State +10
We've already seen two MAC teams picked in the top half of the league go on the road and give two of the best Big Ten teams fits. Akron nearly upset Ohio State and lost by 1 as 16.5-point underdogs, while Buffalo easily covered at Michigan and gave the Wolverines a run for their money.
Now it's another top half of the MAC's teams turn to go on the road and give Xavier a run for its money tonight. I like this Kent State team that returns three starters in Tervell Beck (11.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Giovanni Santiago (9.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Justyn Hamilton (8.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), plus a double-digit scorer off the bench in Malique Jacobs (10.0 PPG, 3.7 APG).
The positive news for the Golden Flashes doesn't stop there as they also welcome in transfers Sincere Carry (11.9 PPG, 5.4 APG) from Duquesne and Andrew Garcia (8.7 PPG) from Georgia. Keep an eye on freshman guard Jalen Sullinger, a second-team All-Ohio selection who is the nephew of Kent State assistant Julian Sullinger and NBA first-round pick Jared Sullinger and son of former Ohio State forward J.J. Sullinger.
Xavier's 63-60 win over Niagara as a 17-point favorite in the opener is concerning and makes me believe Kent State can hang, too. That's especially the case with the Musketeers being without their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to start the season. They are also without Ben Stanley (6.0 PPG) and could be without Kyky Tandy (6.6 PPG).
The Musketeers are 17-37-3 ATS in their last 57 games as favorites. The Golden Flashes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. Take Kent State Friday.
|11-12-21||Cincinnati v. South Florida +23.5||Top||45-28||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Cincinnati/South Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +23.5
You're paying a tax to back the Cincinnati Bearcats because they are 9-0 on the season and trying to make the four-team playoff. They are feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoff and live up to expectations, and it has shown with their play on the field of late as they have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall while being in three straight dog fights against suspect competition.
Indeed, the Bearcats only beat Navy 27-20 as 28.5-point favorites. They managed just 271 total yards and were outgained by 37 yards. Then they had to pull away late to beat Tulane 31-12 as 27.5-point favorites. They managed just 351 total yards and outgained a 1-8 Tulane team by just 71 yards. And last week they needed a couple goal line stands to beat Tulsa 28-20 as 22.5-point favorites. They managed just 390 total yards and were outgained by 56 yards by the Golden Hurricane.
I just don't think Cincinnati can be trusted to keep laying these kinds of big numbers, including this week at South Florida. Their offense isn't dynamic enough to cover these big numbers, and they keep getting the opponents' best shot. That will be the case this week for South Florida as they will look at this game as their 'National Championship' as they sit at just 2-7 on the season and won't be going bowling.
South Florida may not have to face Cincinnati star RB Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns. Either way, I like the Bulls tonight. They are much better than their 2-7 record would indicate. They opened 1-4 this season with all four losses to ranked teams, so they have played a brutal schedule and won't be phased by Cincinnati.
The Bulls have since gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been competitive in every game. They only lost 31-32 to Tulsa as 7.5-point dogs, beat Temple 34-14 as 2-point favorites, lost 14-29 at ECU despite only getting outgained by 80 yards and turned it over four times, and lost 42-54 as 13.5-point home dogs to Houston. That's a Houston team that is playing as well as anyone in the AAC right now.
A very bad South Florida team only lost 7-28 at Cincinnati as 22-point underdogs last year. They committed five turnovers and were only outgained by 42 yards by the Bearcats, so it was closer than the final score. In fact, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of the last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 23.5-point spread. Bet South Florida Friday.
|11-11-21||Pacers +10 v. Jazz||111-100||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +10
This number has been adjusted too much toward the Utah Jazz due to the spot for the Indiana Pacers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-101 loss in Denver last night. ut the spot is eased by the fact that the Pacers had two days off prior to that Denver game.
It's also eased by the fact that the Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season. They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 4 and 3 points. Their three wins came by 13, 13 and 3 points. Malcolm Brogdon is back healthy, and they could get Caris LeVert back tonight after he sat out last night.
This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Jazz have been a double-digit favorite. The last time they lost outright to the Orlando Magic as 11-point favorites. And I just think they are getting too much respect here. It's not the best spot for the Jazz either playing their 4th game in 6 days.
Indiana has thrived in these kinds of spots, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. Western Conference opponents. Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Roll with the Pacers Thursday.
|11-11-21||Cal-Riverside +10 v. Arizona State||66-65||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Riverside +10
UC-Riverside will be one of the best teams in the Big West Conference this season. They returned three starters and four key reserves from a squad that went 14-8 overall last season and 8-4 in the Big West. All three returning starters played well in their opener against San Diego State, as did Callum McRae who sat out all last season and newcomer J.P. Moorman II.
UC-Riverside lost that opener 53-66 to San Diego State as 12.5-point road underdogs, failing to cover by 0.5 points. Well, San Diego State is picked by most to win the Mountain West this season, so that was a very good showing. And the Aztecs are certainly better than this Arizona State squad.
The Sun Devils lost their top three scorers from last year in Remy Martin (19.1 PPG, 3.7 APG), Josh Christopher (14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG). They bring back two starters and will lack chemistry in the early going. That was evident when they failed to cover in a 76-60 win as a 22-point home favorite against lowly Portland in their opener. Portland is picked to finish at or near the bottom of the WCC this season.
Arizona State has been a money burner for quite some time now and will continue to be this season. The Sun Devils are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall. Arizona State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Sun Devils are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after going UNDER the total in their previous game. Bet UC-Riverside Thursday.
|11-11-21||Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins||10-22||Loss||-100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Dolphins AFC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7.5
The Baltimore Ravens have won six of their last seven games overall and should be bigger favorites over the lowly Miami Dolphins tonight. The Ravens always seem to get better as the season goes on. And they are coming off a misleading win over the Vikings last week.
The Ravens outgained the Vikings by 182 yards last week and should have won by more. But they gave up a kickoff return TD which is the only reason it was even close and the only reason they did not cover. They were also -2 in turnovers. That misleading final I think actually has them undervalued this week.
Baltimore should still be fresh even coming off an OT game because they had a bye week prior to the Minnesota game. They face a Miami Dolphins team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week, making this short week even tougher on them. I don't expect them to handle it well, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa doubtful for this one.
The Dolphins are just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS this season. They beat the worst team in the NFL in the Texans 17-9 last week despite just 262 total yards with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Their other win was a misleading 17-16 win at New England in the opener in which they should have lost while getting outgained by 134 yards. The Dolphins are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.
Baltimore is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. The Ravens are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings with seven wins by 14 points or more. Take the Ravens Thursday.
|11-11-21||North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5||Top||23-30||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* UNC/Pittsburgh ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -6.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and have been one of the most underrated teams in college football. All seven wins came by 7 points or more including six by double-digits. Both losses came by a combined 7 points. They will beat the UNC Tar Heels by a touchdown or more tonight.
It's going to be a great atmosphere in Pittsburgh tonight with the Panthers on the verge of winning the Coastal title. It will be a bigger home-field advantage than normal. And the fact of the matter is Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the football, especially defensively.
Kenny Pickett is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 68.7% of his passes with a 29-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season. He leads a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 45.0 points, 541.1 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. Pickett and company will have their way with a UNC defense that allows 33.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.
UNC has a good offense in averaging 38.9 points and 488.8 yards per game this season. But the passing game isn't what is was expected to be with Sam Howell, and the Tar Heels have actually had to rely on the run a lot averaging 215 rushing yards per game. Well, that's not going to work against his Pitt defense.
Pittsburgh only allows 22.7 points, 344.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. While you can throw on them a little, you cannot run on them. The Panthers give up 107 rushing yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 12th nationally. Pitt will make UNC one-dimensional, and that will make them much easier to stop.
This is a tough spot for UNC after needing a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Wake Forest 58-55 as 2.5-point home favorites on Saturday. Now they have to come back Thursday and try and stop this potent Pitt offense after the defense was just gashed for 615 yards by Wake Forest. Pitt should score at will in this game and get enough stops to cover this number.
UNC is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a conference win. The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off a conference home win. The Tar Heels are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season and losing by 12.3 points per game. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their four games vs. a team with a winning record this season. Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.
|11-10-21||Pacers -3 v. Nuggets||98-101||Loss||-110||12 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3
The Indiana Pacers have gotten healthy and are living up to their potential because of it. They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Now they come in rested and ready to go having the last two days off and will take down the Denver Nuggets tonight.
This is a terrible spot for the Nuggets due to their injuries and suspensions. They are without their three best players in Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. I just don't think they have enough pieces outside those three to even keep this game competitive against the Pacers tonight.
The Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. Western Conference opponents. Indiana is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after scoring 105 point or less. The Pacers are 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 games as road favorites. Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest. Take the Pacers Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Youngstown State +18 v. Penn State||59-75||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Youngstown State +18
Penn State is in a rebuilding year and should not be an 18-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight. They have a first-year head coach in Micah Sshrewsberry. They bring back just one double-digit scorer from last year's team and lose their top two scorers in Myreon Jones (15.3 PPG) and Izaiah Brockington (12.6 PPG).
Youngstown State will be going for its third straight winning season for the first time since 1985. Jerrod Calhoun has turned this program around as he enters his 5th season here with some continuity. The Penguins won seven of their final nine games last season and lost to Oakland in overtime in the Horizon League tournament.
The Penguins return three starters from that team in Garrett Covington (12.5 PPG< 4.6 RPG), Shemar Rathan-Mayes (10.4 PPG) and Michael Akuchie (9.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG). They also return four key bench players and bring in Dayton transfer Dwayne Cohill and Hampton transfer Chris Shelton.
The Nittany Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites. I'm expecting them to struggle out of the gate. Roll with Youngstown State Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Mavs v. Bulls -3.5||Top||107-117||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per game. They rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 6th in offensive efficiency, one of only two teams that can claim to be Top 6 in both categories.
The Dallas Mavericks are also 7-3 this season, but they are actually getting outscored by 2.3 points per game, so they have been very fortunate in close games. The Mavericks rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency. They rely way too much on Luka Doncic, and I don't like Jason Kidd as a head coach.
The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Nets v. Magic +9||123-90||Loss||-102||10 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9
The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go tonight having the last two days off following a huge upset of the Utah Jazz 107-100 as 11-point home underdogs. I love the way Cole Anthony is playing right now as he is leading this team with 20.2 points per game, and Wendell Carter Jr. (13.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG), Franz Wagner (13.7 PPG) and Jalen Suggs (12.0 PPG) are coming into their own as well.
The spot isn't nearly as good for Brooklyn. The Nets will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days. They started to show fatigue in the 4th quarter last time out in a 95-118 road loss to the Bulls. And the Nets have to deal with getting the opposing teams' best shot on a nightly basis just because of the big names in Durant and Harden they have on their roster. But they don't have much else outside those two, so covering these big spreads consistently won't be easy.
The Nets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games playing on two days' rest. The Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Toledo v. Bowling Green OVER 49.5||Top||49-17||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Toledo/Bowling Green OVER 49.5
This is a very low total for a MAC week night game and I don't think it's justified. So we'll back the OVER and root for yet another shootout in the MAC tonight in a game between two teams that are playing as shootout teams of late.
Toledo is coming off a 52-49 loss to Eastern Michigan last week in which the Rockets gained 672 total yards and somehow lost. Their defense will be tired from that shootout, but their offense should be ready to hang another big number on Bowling Green tonight.
The OVER is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four games overall. They combined for 55 points with Akron, 60 points with Northern Illinois, 79 points with Eastern Michigan and 100 points with Buffalo. That's why it is shocking to see this total so low tonight.
The Falcons have a better passing game than they get credit for and will need it to try and keep up with Toledo. Bowling Green has passed for at least 221 yards in seven of their last eight games overall, including at least 235 yards in five straight games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-21||Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 220.5||109-117||Loss||-110||13 h 41 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. And these teams are obviously familiar with one another now meeting for the third time in two weeks. The first two meetings saw just 202 and 203 combined points, and this one should be low scoring as well.
The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They have allowed 41.8% shooting or lower in six of their last seven games overall. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.
The Blazers are also improved defensively this season. They have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or fewer. They just limited the Lakers to 90 points last time out and I see both teams struggling to top 100 in this one.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last four home games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-2 in Clippers last seven games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Oral Roberts +12.5 v. Colorado State||Top||80-109||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +12.5
Oral Roberts made the Sweet 16 last year. They return three starters from that team, including Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas, who led college basketball in scoring at 24.6 points per game. They also bring back Kareem Thompson (8.7 PPG) and four other players that averaged at least 4.1 points per game.
Colorado State is getting too much respect as a 12.5-point favorite over Oral Roberts in the opener. The Rams nearly made the NCAA Tournament but came up just short last year. They will be good again with five returning starters, but they should not be laying double-digits here against Abmas and company.
The Golden Eagles are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Golden Eagles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Bet Oral Roberts Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Louisiana Tech v. Alabama -11||64-93||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* LA Tech/Alabama SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -11
Nate Oats is doing a tremendous job already at Alabama. He guided the Crimson Tide to a 26-7 season including a 16-2 record in SEC play to take down the regular season title and SEC Tournament. This team is loaded again with the best backcourt in the country.
Leading scorer Jaden Shackleford (14.0 PPG) decided to return this season. Javon Quinerly (12.9 PPG) made 43% from 3 last season. J.D. Davison is a five-star and one of the top recruits in the class of 2021 and will push Quinerly for playing time. The Crimson Tide ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency last season and played at the 11th-fasted tempo in the country.
Louisiana Tech is a quality team in Conference USA year in and year out. And while they do return three starters this season, they do lose two productive ones in Kaleb Ledoux (11.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and JaColby Pemberton (8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG). They don't have the firepower to keep up with Alabama as they prefer to play at a slow tempo and are defensive-minded. Alabama will control the tempo playing at home. Roll with Alabama Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Ohio v. Eastern Michigan OVER 60||34-26||Push||0||11 h 33 m||Show|
15* MAC Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio/Eastern Michigan OVER 60
Eastern Michigan has been mighty impressive on offense the last three weeks. They put up 31 points against Ball State, 55 against Bowling Green and 52 against Toledo. I think they can virtually almost cover this OVER on their own, but I'm expecting them to get some help, too.
Eastern Michigan QB Ben Bryant is one of the most underrated starters in college football. He is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,190 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season. He has thrown for at least 286 yards in four of his last five games and will lead this pass-heavy Eagles attack again tonight.
Ohio has scored at least 26 points in each of its last five games. It is coming off a 35-point effort against a very good Miami Ohio defense last week. So the Bobcats are capable of matching the Eagles score for score in this one.
Both teams have average to above-average offenses, but both teams definitely have below-average defenses. Ohio gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play. Eastern Michigan gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play. Both defenses are tired after Ohio gave up 569 yards to Miami last week, while Eastern Michigan allowed 672 yards to Toledo.
The OVER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven Tuesday games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last four Tuesday games. The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Akron +26 v. Western Michigan||Top||40-45||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +26
The Akron Zips are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The only exception was a blowout loss to Buffalo in which they turned it over four times. The other three games have been mighty impressive.
Indeed, it started with a 35-20 upset win at Bowling Green as 14-point dogs. They also covered in a 21-34 loss at Miami Ohio as 20-point dogs. And last week they covered as 20-point dogs in a 25-31 road loss at Ball State in which they had a chance to win the game on the final drive but fumbled going into the end zone.
Akron did fire their head coach after that loss to Ball State, which wasn't fair. But I always like backing teams in their first game without their head coach because they tend to rally around one another. And I expect that to be the case for them tonight as they easily stay within this 26-point spread.
The key to the Zips being more competitive of late is the play of QB Zach Gibson at quarterback. He is completing 71.9% of his passes with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio and was the main guy in each of their last three covers against Bowling Green, Miami Ohio and Ball State. Gibson went 24-of-31 passing for 331 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week.
I also hate the spot for Western Michigan. The Broncos are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall to fall out of the MAC title chase. They lost 20-45 outright as a 13.5-point home favorite against Ball State. They lost 15-34 as a 1.5-point road favorite at Toledo. And last week they lost 30-42 as a 9-point home favorite against Central Michigan.
I question this team's focus the rest of the way, especially this week laying 26 points to Akron, which will be very difficult to cover whether they are focused or not. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Western Michigan is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight conference games. Bet Akron Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Akron v. Ohio State -16.5||66-67||Loss||-101||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5
Ohio State is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 21-10 last season and earned a No. 2 seed. They fell victim to Oral Roberts' incredible run, but that just means they come back this season highly motivated.
The Buckeyes bring back one of the best big men in the country in E.J. Lidell (16.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG). They also bring back three more starters including Justice Sueing (10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG). They add Ohio Mr. Basketball Malaki Branham as an elite freshman recruit, plus Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler and Louisiana guard Cedric Russell to solidify their backcourt.
Akron is no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the MAC. The Zips bring back three decent starters but lose their best player in Loren Christian Jackson (22.3 PPG, 6.1 APG), who is irreplaceable for this team. Jackson turned pro after rolling up 1,587 points, 381 assists and two first-team All-MAC selections in his three years here. Take Ohio State Tuesday.
|11-08-21||Heat -2 v. Nuggets||96-113||Loss||-105||11 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat look like the best team in the NBA in the early going. They are 7-2 with one loss in overtime and another loss where they shot a fluky 34.5% as a team. Six of their seven wins have come by 13 points or more, and the lone exception was a win over the Utah Jazz by 3 last time out.
The Denver Nuggets are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Two of the wins were narrow victories over bad teams in the Timberwolves (93-91) and Rockets (95-94). They are already without Jamal Murray, and they will also be without Michael Porter Jr. due to a back injury tonight. Meanwhile, the Heat are fully healthy which is why they are playing so well.
Plays against home underdogs (Denver) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS since 1996. The Heat are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nuggets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Heat Monday.
|11-08-21||Bears v. Steelers -6.5||27-29||Loss||-105||150 h 58 m||Show|
15* Bears/Steelers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -6.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers have turned around their season the only way they know how. There's a reason they have never finished worse than 8-8 under Mike Tomlin because he gets the most out of his players even when things look grim. And they definitely looked grim after a 1-3 start.
But the Steelers have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. They beat the Broncos 27-19 at home, the Seahawks 23-20 at home and the Browns 15-10 on the road in upset fashion. They were coming off their bye week heading into that Cleveland game and should have won by more.
They had 370 yards against a good Browns defense and held them to 304 yards, outgaining them by 64 yards. But they had to settle for too many field goals. They should still be fresh after that bye and have one of the best looking injury reports in the NFL. And Big Ben is finding his groove now thanks in large part to a running game that has come around with 115 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games. This offense is a dangerous one when it has balance.
Now Big Ben should be able to pick apart a Chicago defense that gets shredded every week. After giving up 38 points and 408 yards to the Bucs two weeks ago in a 38-3 loss, the Bears came back last week and gave up 467 yards and 8.6 yards per play to the 49ers last week in a 33-22 loss that wasn't even as close as the final score.
This is a bad combination for the Bears having a leaky defense and a terrible offense. They managed just 324 yards and 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers. They were held to 311 yards against the Bucs, 277 to the Packers, 252 to the Raiders, 373 to the Lions and 47 to the Browns in their previous five games. Justin Fields just isn't a very good passer, and missing David Montgomery has hurt this team.
Stopping Chicago's rushing attack will be key, and the Steelers only give up 106 rushing yards per game and are proving they have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this year. The Steelers are primed for one of the best defensive performances of the season against a Chicago offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense. The next-worst team is at 4.8 yards per play.
Chicago is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 10.8 points per game and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss. Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a home loss. The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog. Bet the Steelers Monday.
|11-08-21||Nets v. Bulls -1||Top||95-118||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1
This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls off back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia 76ers following their 6-1 start to the season. Now the Bulls are highly motivated for a victory Monday night. They are fresh too playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They won 96-90 at Detroit on Friday and 116-103 at Toronto on Sunday. James Harden played 38 minutes against the Raptors and Kevin Durant played nearly 37 minutes. Four of five starters played at least 33 minutes. They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.
The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Take the Bulls Monday.
|11-07-21||Bucks v. Wizards +3||94-101||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards +3
The Washington Wizards are one of the most improved teams in the NBA. They are 6-3 this season with wins over the Raptors, Pacers, Hawks, Celtics (twice) and are coming off a 115-87 home win over Memphis. I really like this roster with the additions of Harrell (18.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG), Kuzma (14.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG), Dinwiddie (17.1 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Caldwell-Pope (9.8 PPG) as they are gelling well with Bradley Beal (23.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.1 APG) and company.
The Milwaukee Bucks are in the midst of a championship hangover. They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with upset home losses to the Timberwolves, Spurs and Knicks as well as a 12-point loss to the Jazz. Their lone win during this stretch came against the lowly Pistons.
The problem for the Bucks is injuries and COVID. They are playing without Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo and could be without Grayson Allen tonight. Giannis and Jrue Holiday haven't been able to shoulder the load. And it just appears the Bucks are going through the motions. The Wizards will be the more motivated team with the defending champs coming to town today.
Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by 10 points or more. The Wizards are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall. Washington is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on one days' rest. Take the Wizards Sunday.
|11-07-21||Cardinals v. 49ers +2.5||Top||31-17||Loss||-100||122 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Sunday Update: I got 49ers +2.5 early in the week. I would still bet them as a 25* up to -3 even if Murray plays due to their other injuries and the situation. Lower your bet if you can only get -3.5 or worse.
The San Francisco 49ers want revenge from a 17-10 road loss at Arizona a couple weeks ago on October 10th. They deserved to win that game as they had the ball in Arizona territory the entire game even with Trey Lance at QB. They outgained the Cardinals by 34 yards and held them to just 304 yards in that game but managed just 10 points.
Now the 49ers have Jimmy G back at QB, and he is coming off his best game of the season. The 49ers beat the Bears 33-22 last week in what was an even bigger blowout than the final scored showed. The 49ers had 467 total yards and outgained the Bears by 143 yards and didn't punt once. They outgained the Bears 8.6 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play in that game.
The Cardinals are overvalued due to their 7-1 start. I successfully faded them with the Packers last week in a game Green Bay won outright despite missing several key players. Now it's the Cardinals who could be missing several key players. They are already without JJ Watt and C Rodney Hudson, and they could be without both QB Kyler Murray and WR De'Andre Hopkins, who are both questionable. If Murray were to sit the 49ers would definitely be favored. But I like them either way.
Plays on underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Arizona is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. It's regression time for this team that has overachieved in the first half this season. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The 49ers are outgaining opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL this season and shows they are better than their 3-4 record would indicate. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|11-07-21||Chargers -1 v. Eagles||27-24||Win||100||122 h 8 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers. They went into their bye week coming off a 34-6 loss to the Ravens and many expected them to come out with their hair on fire against the Patriots. Instead, they also lost to the Patriots 24-27 at home as 3.5-point favorites.
Now we are getting the Chargers at a discount. This team is much better than they have shown in their last two games. Remember, they were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games beating the Chiefs 30-24 on the road, the Raiders 28-14 at home and the Browns 47-42 at home, and that was back when the Browns were healthier. And the Chargers should still be fresh after having their bye two weeks ago, and they are as healthy as any team in the NFL.
Conversely, it's time 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off a 44-6 victory over the Lions last week in the biggest blowout of the week. They did so with just 350 total yards as the Lions just gave that game away. It was also a flat spot for Jared Goff and the Lions after nearly upsetting the Rams the previous week. The Eagles took advantage and looked better than they really were.
Remember, the Eagles looked awful the previous two weeks against the Bucs and Raiders. They were outgained by 186 yards by the Bucs in their misleading 22-28 loss. They were outgained by 84 yards by the Raiders in their 22-33 road loss in which they had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday the previous week. Philadelphia's three wins have come against Atlanta, Carolina and Detroit. They aren't very good, and the Chargers are the better of these two teams and we're getting them at basically a pick 'em price.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1983.
Los Angeles is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games following a loss by 3 points or less. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. NFC opponents. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Los Angeles is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|11-07-21||Nets v. Raptors +3.5||116-103||Loss||-110||6 h 9 m||Show|
15* Nets/Raptors NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +3.5
The Toronto Raptors are playing great right now in going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point. Now they get their best player back making his season debut today in Pascal Siakam and will be highly motivated with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town.
The Nets have also won four in a row but three have come at home and the other was a shaky 96-90 road win over the Pistons. The Raptors have won three straight road games against Indiana, New York and Washington and have played the much tougher schedule during this stretch of success.
The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their five games overall. Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last seven meetings with Brooklyn. Bet the Raptors Sunday.
|11-07-21||Vikings v. Ravens -5.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||119 h 4 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -5.5
I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens this week. They are coming off their bye week and a terrible loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. They will come back refreshed and highly motivated for a victory out of their bye. It was definitely a more productive bye than most teams because you know they were focused off that 17-41 loss to the Bengals.
That loss to the Bengals was the aberration, not the norm. The Ravens had gone 5-0 in their previous five games with the last three victories over the Broncos, Colts and Chargers coming by a combined 50 points. Look for them to get back to their dominant ways against the Minnesota Vikings this week.
The Vikings blew a golden opportunity to get back in the playoff race with their 16-20 home loss to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys last week. The Cowboys outgained the Vikings by 141 yards behind a 300-yard passing effort from Rush. Kirk Cousins was awful as the Vikings went just 1-of-13 on 3rd down and their only play call seemed to be a screen play.
Cousins cannot stretch the field, and the Ravens play man-to-man defense mostly that is going to take away those short routes. The Ravens also have the answer for Dalvin Cook. They give up just 86 rushing yards per game as one of the top run defenses in the NFL. And Lamar Jackson and company should have a field day against this Minnesota defense that just gave up 418 yards to Rush and the Cowboys.
The Ravens are scoring 26.7 points per game and averaging 417.6 yards per game this season. They rank 4th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense. They should be able to do whatever they want to on offense, especially run the football against a Vikings defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry on the season.
Baltimore is 15-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. They seem to get better as the season goes on under John Harbaugh. The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Ravens Sunday.
|11-06-21||76ers v. Bulls -3.5||Top||114-105||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They will be playing on two days' rest after last playing in a 98-103 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday. Now they get their chance for revenge against the 76ers at home this time around. They will take advantage and get their revenge with a win and cover.
The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days as they had to go on the road and face Detroit on Thursday. They are missing several key players right now with Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle out tonight. They could also be without Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green and Isaiah Joe, who are all questionable.
Philadelphia is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog. Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. The Bulls are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The 76ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Take the Bulls Saturday.
|11-06-21||76ers v. Bulls UNDER 213||114-105||Loss||-110||11 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls UNDER 213
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Philadelphia just beat Chicago 103-98 on Wednesday for 201 combined points. Now these teams meet again just three days later here Saturday and I expect another defensive battle.
Philadelphia ranks dead last (30th) in pace this season at 97.8 possessions per game. The 76ers are missing some key offensive weapons in Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle. They could also be without Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green and Isaiah Joe, who are all questionable. They will be looking to slow it down to a snail's pace.
The Bulls will oblige as they rank just 21st in pace this season. And the key reason the Bulls have been so improved this year with their 6-2 start is defense. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 100.2 points per 100 possessions. The 76ers are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency as well.
Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER in all games this season. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in 76ers last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 games overall. Roll with the UNDER In this game Saturday.
|11-06-21||Mississippi State v. Arkansas -5||28-31||Loss||-105||51 h 27 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -5
I definitely like the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks this week. They are coming off their bye week. They basically had two weeks off in a row as they beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 45-3 going into their bye. So they have had plenty of time to prepare for Mike Leach's Air Raid system.
The Razorbacks have been great at defending these spread offenses under Sam Pittman. They upset Ole Miss last year and nearly upset them again this year, losing by 1 on the road. They drop eight into coverage and keep the ball in front of them against these spread teams.
Last year, they went on the road and upset Mississippi State 21-14 as 16.5-point underdogs. They forced four Mississippi State turnovers. And I think they turn them over at least a couple times Saturday. Arkansas only gives up 168 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per attempt this season, so they are built to stop the pass.
And this is the best Razorbacks offense they have had in several years. They average 32.8 points and 465.3 yards per game this season. They are averaging 6.6 yards per play against teams that normally allow 5.9 yards per play, so they are exceeding expectations on offense by 0.7 yards per play.
Defensively they give up just 5.2 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so they are holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season average. They are outgaining teams by 1.4 yards per play overall, which is one of the best marks in all of college football.
To compare, Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play, basically breaking even on the season. Mississippi State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs off two straight wins over lowly Vanderbilt and overrated Kentucky. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.
|11-06-21||Utah State v. New Mexico State +18.5||35-13||Loss||-106||51 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +18.5
New Mexico State has been a big money maker for me and I'm going to continue to ride them as 18.5-point underdogs to Utah State Saturday. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and consistently catching too many points on a weekly basis. Their only non-cover came in a 20-point loss to Hawaii as 17-point dogs.
They have played some great competition during this stretch and hung tough. They lost by 18 at SDSU as a 31.5-point dogs, by 9 at New Mexico as a 19.5-point dogs, beat South Carolina State by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite, lost by 6 to San Jose State as a 26-point dog, lost by 27 to Nevada as a 28-point dog and lost by 14 to Hawaii in their 2nd meeting as an 18-point dog.
Not only are they covering, but they are playing these teams tough in the stats, too. The Aggies actually outgained San Diego State by 11 yards, were only outgained by 91 yards by Hawaii in the first meeting and outgained them by 3 yards in the second meeting. They were only outgained by 80 yards by Nevada and by 19 yards by San Jose State. So they have only been outgained by more than 91 yards once in their last seven games.
Now the Aggies come in on two weeks' rest after a much-needed bye week following eight games in eight weeks to start the season. They are primed for a big effort here against a Utah State team that is getting too much respect after winning and covering its last two games against Colorado State and Hawaii. They were actually outgained by 128 yards in their win over Colorado State, too.
In the three games prior, they barely beat UNLV 2824, lost by 14 to BYU at home and lost by 24 to Boise State at home. This team has a good offense, which is why they get respect, but their terrible defense is going to keep New Mexico State's underrated offense in this game for four quarters. The Aggies rank 108th in total defense, giving up 435.1 yards per game.
New Mexico State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Mountain West opponents. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-06-21||Tulsa +23 v. Cincinnati||20-28||Win||100||51 h 57 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +23
It's time to 'sell high' on the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are 8-0 this season and starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff. They barely beat Navy 27-20 as 29-point favorites two weeks ago and managed just 271 total yards against the Midshipmen. Last week they were in a dog fight with lowly Tulane as a 28-point favorite before pulling away 31-12, but only managing 351 total yards.
Now they face a much better Tulsa team here that we want to 'buy low' on due to their 3-5 record. But Tulsa is way better than that record would indicate. And they are coming off an upset loss to Navy last week that has them undervalued.
Remember, Tulsa only lost by 5 as a 10.5-point dog at Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane came back the next week and were in a one-score game with Ohio State on the road in the 4th quarter before eventually losing by 21 as a 24.5-point favorite. They have only lost by more than 21 points once all season.
Amazingly, Tulsa is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games against ranked opponents. They just have a way of playing up to their level of competition. Last year, Tulsa only lost 24-27 at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point dog. They also covered as 15.5-point dogs in a 13-24 loss at Cincinnati the year prior. Each of the last eight meetings were decided by 19 points or fewer as well. Take Tulsa Saturday.
|11-06-21||Georgia Tech +10.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||30-33||Win||100||48 h 58 m||Show|
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +10.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes this week. They are coming off two straight upset wins as underdogs over NC State (by 1) and Pittsburgh (by 4) despite giving up 421 yards to NC State and 587 more to Pitt. They played UNC to a 3-point game the game prior, so they have played in three straight dog fights. They will run out of gas this week.
Now the Hurricanes go from underdogs to double-digit favorites against Georgia Tech this week, which is a huge overreaction. This is a letdown spot off the win over a ranked Pitt team if I've ever seen one. And it's a sandwich spot with rival Florida State on deck next week. I don't expect anything near Miami's 'A' game this week because of it.
Georgia Tech is highly motivated for a victory. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a pair of single-digit losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech the last two weeks following their bye. They still believe they can make a bowl game, and a win here Saturday would be about their only hope. They will treat this game as their 'National Championship'.
Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Miami with all three games decided by 7 points or fewer. They won outright as 18-point dogs last year, and they can do the same thing this year given the awful spot for the Hurricanes. The Yellow Jackets are better than their 3-5 record too as they are outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play on the season.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. They only have one win by more than 4 points all season, and that came against FCS Central Connecticut State as a 44-point favorite. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|11-06-21||Wake Forest v. North Carolina -2.5||Top||55-58||Win||100||70 h 32 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -2.5
We have a 4-4 unranked North Carolina team favored over a ranked 8-0 Wake Forest team. And I think the unranked Tar Heels are favored for good reason. Remember, this team was ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season. They have failed to live up to expectations and I think it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.
They are still alive in the Coastal and won't pack it in. They should be fresh because they had a bye before losing by 10 on the road to Notre Dame last week. And they won't have a problem getting up for this unbeaten Wake Forest team off that loss to the Fighting Irish.
No question it's impressive what Wake Forest has done this season in getting to 8-0. But they have done it against the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. UNC has faced the much tougher slate. And the Tar Heels have been at their best at home at 4-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game.
UNC's stats show they are much better than a 4-4 team, too. They are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. Those are almost identical numbers to Wake Forest, which is outgaining teams by 74 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. And when you factor in UNC has played the tougher schedule, I actually believe the Tar Heels are the better team here.
UNC is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. I think UNC plays its best game of the season here Saturday and it will be more than enough to cover this 2.5-point spread against this overrated Wake Forest squad. Bet North Carolina Saturday.
|11-06-21||Liberty +10 v. Ole Miss||Top||14-27||Loss||-110||47 h 28 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Liberty +10
Hugh Freeze is the former coach of Ole Miss. He will have his players ready as this is Liberty's 'National Championship' game against an SEC opponent. And the Flames come in fresh after throttling UMass 62-17 last week to improve to 7-2 with both their losses coming by 3 points each.
Ole Miss is the team in the awful spot. The Rebels will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after facing Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn with each of the last four games decided by 14 points or fewer. They were in a lot of dog fights, and now they step out of conference this week before taking on Texas A&M next week. That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them. They won't get up for Liberty at all stepping out of conference here.
Ole Miss was already missing its best receiver in Jonathan Mingo to a season-ending injury. Now they could be without both Dontario Drummond (40 receptions, 658 yards, 7 TD) and Braylen Sanders (13 receptions, 309 yards, 3 TD), who are each questionable. QB Matt Corral is expected to play but is battling an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, Liberty comes in fully healthy and ready to match this Ole Miss offense score for score. The Flames average 37.4 points per game and 444.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. They give up just 17.8 points per game, 300.0 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play. Malik Willis is one of the best QB's in the country that you have never heard of. He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 21-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a team-high 684 yards and 9 scores.
The Flames are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Liberty is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog. The Flames are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.
|11-06-21||Louisiana Tech +13.5 v. UAB||38-52||Loss||-105||47 h 27 m||Show|
15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +13.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on UAB. The Blazers are 5-3 this season but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the country. Their wins have come against Jacksonville State, North Texas, Tulane, FAU and Southern Miss. And they even just lost outright to Rice as a 24-point favorites while also losing by 24 to Liberty as a favorite and by 49 to Georgia.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Louisiana Tech, which is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate. LA Tech lost by 1 to Mississippi State as a 20.5-point dog, but 2 to SMU as an 11-point dog and by 7 to NC State as an 18.5-point dog. Those three efforts showed what they were capable of, and the last three games have been the aberration.
The Bulldogs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, which is why it's a good 'buy low' spot. They lost 19-3 to UTEP which is already bowl eligible. They lost 16-45 to a UTSA team that is 8-0 this season. And that game was closer than the final score as the Bulldogs were only outgained by 5 yards against the Roadrunners. Then last week they outgained Old Dominion by 24 yards in their 23-20 defeat.
Three of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less, and I expect more of the same here with this game going right down to the wire. UAB"s offense just isn't good enough to get margin. They average just 25.9 points per game and 374.5 yards per game. LA Tech can match them offensively, averaging 25.8 points per game and 383.1 yards per game. And LA Tech has an above-average defense.
LA Tech is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss as a favorite. Skip Holtz is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a road underdog. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. UAB is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|11-05-21||Hornets v. Kings -1||Top||110-140||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They have been competitive in every game during their 4-4 start and even have upset road wins over both the Suns and Blazers as 8 and 6.5-point dogs, respectively. They are the better team in this showdown with Charlotte and should be a bigger favorite.
The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to the Mavericks by 6 and the Jazz by 6. The Kings rank 11th in offensive efficiency this season and have a great young, healthy roster. They are 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Charlotte is overvalued after a 5-2 start this season. The Hornets have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games, getting upset at home by the Cavaliers and blown out on the road by the Warriors by 22. Charlotte cannot be trusted this season because they rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting 47.9% against them and scoring 114.9 points per game.
Sacramento is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 November games. Charlotte is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites. Take the Kings Friday.
|11-05-21||Clippers v. Wolves +2.5||104-84||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5
I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They are coming off three straight losses and this is a home-and-home situation after losing 115-126 to the Clippers on Wednesday. Now the Timberwolves will be out for revenge just two days later here.
The Timberwolves will be the more motivated team in this game. I have a hard time believing the Clippers are going to shoot anywhere near as well as they did in the first meeting. They shot 47-of-78 (60.3%) from the field and 21-of-36 (58.3%) from 3-point range and still only won by 11. That's not happening again.
Especially when you consider the Timberwolves are one of the most improved teams in the NBA defensively this season, ranking 9th in defensive efficiency even after that performance. The Clippers are still just 22nd in offensive efficiency even after that performance. And they are still missing three key players in Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka.
Minnesota is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.
|11-05-21||Virginia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 47.5||Top||3-17||Win||100||52 h 41 m||Show|
20* VA Tech/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 47.5
Boston College has been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing starting QB Phil Jurkovec early in the season. The Eagles are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall, combining with Clemson for 32 points, NC State for 40 points, Louisville for 42 points and Syracuse for 27 points.
This total of 47.5 is set way too high Friday night. Boston College has been held to just 10.0 points per game in its last four games. Virginia Tech's defense is elite again this season, and it will shut down the Eagles too. The Hokies allow just 22.4 points per game on the season.
The problem for the Hokies is not defense, but offense. They average just 24.0 points per game and 349.9 yards per game. Boston College does have a good defense that gives up just 20.8 points per game this season and should be able to hold the Hokies in check as well.
Both teams rely heavily on the run, which should keep the clock moving. The Hokies average 40 rushing attempts per game, while the Eagles average 38 rushing attempts per game. Both teams aren't great at stopping the run, so look for both teams to run it even more than normal in this one.
Boston College is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off three straight conference losses. The UNDER is 6-2 in all Boston College games this season. The UNDER is 6-2 in all Virginia Tech games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-04-21||Rockets +10.5 v. Suns||111-123||Loss||-106||12 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5
The Houston Rockets have quietly been very competitive. They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with only one loss by more than 10 points. They beat the Thunder and lost to the Celtics, Mavericks and Lakers (twice) by 10 points or fewer. They'll stay within 10 of the Suns tonight as well.
Phoenix has been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS and were fortunate to cover against the depleted Pelicans last time out, winning by 12 as 11.5-point favorites only after a 36-18 4th quarter. They lost to the Blazers by 29, were upset by the Kings as 8-point favorites, lost to the Nuggets by 12, and failed to cover as 10-point favorites against the Cavaliers. The NBA Finals loss hangover is in full effect.
The Rockets were extremely competitive with the Suns last season and that was a disastrous year for Houston and a tremendous one for Phoenix. All three meetings were decided by 6 points or less, and the Rockets were 13 and 14-point dogs in two of the games.
Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss. The Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Suns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Houston is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 trips to Phoenix. Roll with the Rockets Thursday.
|11-04-21||Jets +10.5 v. Colts||Top||30-45||Loss||-108||53 h 3 m||Show|
20* Jets/Colts AFC Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5
The Indianapolis Colts can't be favored by double-digit against almost anyone. Carson Wentz cannot be trusted to make the right throws. Their best bet it to run it 40 times a game with Johnathan Tayor, but they refuse to do it.
The Colts are coming off yet another devastating overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans in a game that would have gotten them back in the AFC South race. Now they are tired on a short week here and having to face a New York Jets team that is undervalued and coming in with confidence and feeling good about themselves.
The Jets beat the Bengals 34-31 last week as 11.5-point underdogs and should have won by even more. They racked up 511 total yards against the Bengals and held them to just 318 yards, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards. But they did commit three turnovers to keep the Bengals in the game.
Still, no starting debut for a QB could have gone any better than the one for Mike White against the Bengals. White went 37-of-45 passing for 405 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Michael Carter emerged as the lead back as a rookie, rushing for 77 yards and a score while also catching nine balls for 95 yards. This young team is looking forward to this opportunity on a National TV stage to showcase what they are capable of now with White running the show.
While the injury news is looking up on the Jets' front, the Colts suffered some more key injuries against the Titans last week. T.Y. Hilton suffered a concussion and left the game and will be out for this one. Wentz was terrible after he left. DT Tyquon Lewis suffered a season-ending knee injury as well.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|11-04-21||Jazz -109 v. Hawks||Top||116-98||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz ML -109
The Utah Jazz were the best team in the regular season last year and are off to another great start this season. They are 6-1 and crushing teams once again with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and four by double-digits. They had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.
This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks. They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-117 road loss at Brooklyn on ESPN on National TV last night. The Hawks will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA today.
The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites. Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as road favorites. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Jazz Thursday.
|11-04-21||Georgia State +12.5 v. UL-Lafayette||17-21||Win||100||28 h 47 m||Show|
15* Georgia State/Louisiana ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Georgia State +12.5
Louisiana has a way of playing to its level of competition. There was an exception last week when they beat Texas State 45-0, but the Bobcats lost their QB in that game and weren't the same after keeping it close early with him. Now the Rajin Cajuns come back overvalued off that blowout win.
Let's just look at some of their performances earlier this season. They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites. They have a huge game on deck against Troy and could be looking ahead to that as well.
Georgia State comes in playing its best football of the season. The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Louisiana Monroe by 34 as 16-point favorites, Texas State by 12 as 10-point favorites and Georgia Southern by 7 as 6-point favorites. They have the confidence to take give Louisiana a run for its money tonight.
The Panthers returned 19 starters from a team that took Louisiana to the wire last season in a 31-34 loss as 17-point underdogs. I think they can stay within two touchdowns in the rematch tonight. I like their run defense, which gives up 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 4.6 yards per carry, so they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages. They also have a great rushing attack of their own that averages 224 yards per game and 5.0 per carry to shorten the game and control time of possession.
Louisiana is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win. Georgia State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Rajin' Cajuns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Take Georgia State Thursday.
|11-03-21||Mavs v. Spurs +1||Top||109-108||Push||0||11 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +1
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They had yesterday off and will be fresh. They will be out for revenge from a 99-104 loss at Dallas on October 28th just a week ago. I expect them to have their revenge with an outright home win tonight considering the terrible spot for the Mavericks.
Indeed, Dallas will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-125 home loss to the Miami Heat last night on TNT. It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Mavericks, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA. And they are going to be without Maxi Kleber and likely Kristaps Porzingis again, so they are short-handed.
The Spurs are 27-14 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Dallas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team that wins between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-03-21||Bulls +3 v. 76ers||98-103||Loss||-102||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3
Billy Donovan has the Chicago Bulls playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA in the early going. The Bulls are 6-1 this season with their lone loss coming by a single point to the New York Knicks. They should not be catching 3 points against the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
The 76ers are getting too much respect after their upset win over the Blazers last time out without Embiid, Harris and Simmons. Well, Embiid is expected back, but they are still going to be without Harris (COVID) and Simmons. Danny Green is also out with a hamstring injury. The Bulls won't take them lightly like the Blazers did.
The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last five road games. Philadelphia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.
|11-03-21||Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan||Top||42-30||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
20* CMU/WMU ESPNU No-Brainer on Central Michigan +10
Central Michigan just has a way of playing in close games, and I think we are getting some value with them here as double-digit underdogs to Western Michigan. The Chippewas have played eight games this season with six decided by 11 points or fewer. The only exceptions were their 28-point loss at LSU and their 45-point win over FCS Robert Morris.
I don't see how Western Michigan can be trusted to be laying double-digits here considering they have lost two of their last three games in blowout fashion outright as favorites. They lost 34-15 at Toledo as 1.5-point favorites and 20-45 at home to Ball State as 13.5-point favorites. I want no part of them as a double-digit favorite.
Central Michigan has the 29th-best offense in the country in averaging 449.5 yards per game with a tremendous balance of 288 passing yards per game and 161.5 rushing yards per game. Their offense will keep them in this game for four quarters. Western Michigan relies heavily on the run at 182.9 rushing yards per game, and Central Michigan has been good at stopping the run in giving up 139.1 rushing yards per game.
The Chippewas are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 November games. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week. Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.
|11-02-21||Rockets +10.5 v. Lakers||117-119||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from an 85-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. They don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to face the Lakers in Los Angeles just two days later here Tuesday.
The Lakers are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, which is a big reason they are just 2-5 ATS this season with only one win by more than 10 points. They are without Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza. LeBron James, Dwight Howard and Wayne Ellington are questionable, and Anthony Davis is probable but playing through a knee injury.
The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive home wins. The Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Braves v. Astros -124||Top||7-0||Loss||-124||9 h 20 m||Show|
25* World Series GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Astros -124
The Atlanta Braves had the Houston Astros by the balls up 4-0 in the 1st inning in Game 5 looking to close out the series. But the Astros did not give in, coming back to win 9-5 behind the best offense in baseball. And now the Astros have all the momentum heading into Game 6, while the Braves have to be feeling like they let a golden opportunity slip away and have all the pressure on them now.
Luis Garcia has done his best work at home this season. He is 7-5 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 15 home starts. Garcia has been great in his last two starts against Boston and Atlanta, allowing just one earned run in 9 1/3 innings with 13 K's and a 0.96 ERA to boot.
Max Fried has been awful in his last two starts and will continue to struggle tonight in this pressure-packed situation. He is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA while allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings to the Dodgers and Astros. Bet the Astros in Game 6 Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Heat -2 v. Mavs||Top||125-110||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat are a juggernaut this season. They are off to a 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start after having a down year last season due to injuries and COVID. They added Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris to go along with their already loaded roster featuring Butler, Herro, Adebayo and Robinson.
The Heat are not only winning, they are dominating with all five wins coming by double-digits as they are outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game. Their lone loss came in overtime. They beat the Bucks by 42, the Magic by 17, the Nets by 13, the Hornets by 15 and the Grizzlies by 26.
I don't trust Jason Kidd and the Dallas Mavericks. They are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS. Their four wins all came against suspect competition in the Raptors, Rockets, Spurs and Kings and all four were competitive. They lost to the Hawks by 26 and the Nuggets by 31, the two best teams they have faced. Miami will be the best team they have faced yet, and they will be without Maxi Kleber and could be without Kristaps Porzingis, who is questionable.
The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. Take the Heat Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Miami-OH v. Ohio +8||Top||33-35||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +8
The Ohio Bobcats have been very competitive of late after a tough start to the season. They have gone just 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. All three losses came by 7 points or less to Central Michigan (by 3), Buffalo (by 1) and Kent State (by 7). If they lose this game to Miami (Ohio) then I expect it to be by 7 points or fewer as well.
The Bobcats were even in yardage against Kent State, only -53 yards against Buffalo and -92 yards against Central Michigan. Those are three teams that are on par with Miami (Ohio), which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. The Redhawks aren't a team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this because they have a lackluster offense.
Indeed, the Redhawks are scoring just 21.1 points per game this season. Even their defense has taken a step back this year in allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.6 yards per play. Ohio averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and has been good on that side of the ball. They give up 5.9 yards per play on defense, so not far behind Miami, which also averages 5.7 yards per play on offense.
Ohio is also playing with double-revenge after losing to Ohio 24-21 and 30-28 the last two meetings, both games that went down to the wire like this one will. In fact, Miami (Ohio) hasn't beaten Ohio by more than 3 points in any of the last 14 meetings, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Bobcats pertaining to this 8-point spread. Bet Ohio Tuesday.
|11-01-21||Giants v. Chiefs -9.5||17-20||Loss||-110||98 h 33 m||Show|
15* Giants/Chiefs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -9.5
This line opened at Chiefs -13 this week and has been bet all the way down to -9.5. It's now time to pull the trigger on the Chiefs in a game I fully expect them to win by double-digits. This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Chiefs and 'sell high' spot on the Giants.
The Chiefs are coming off a shocking 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. They will be playing with their hair on fire after that embarrassing defeat. The Giants are coming off an upset win over the Panthers 25-3 last week. They will be feeling a little fat and happy after that performance.
The Chiefs have owned the NFC East this season. They beat the Eagles 42-30 on the road and Washington 31-13 on the road. The Giants aren't better than either of those two teams. Now the Chiefs get to face an NFC East team at home here and should crush it. Daniel Jones won't be able to match Patrick Mahomes score for score, just as Taylor Heineke and Jalen Hurts came up short as well.
The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC opponents. Andy Reid is 8-1 ATS in Monday Night Football games as the coach of Kansas City. New York is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 15 points last game. Bet the Chiefs Monday.
|11-01-21||Raptors +7 v. Knicks||113-104||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the New York Knicks after their 5-1 start this season. They have feasted on a pretty easy schedule and are now laying 7 points to the Toronto Raptors, who come into this game playing too well to be catching this many points.
Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 in their last three games overall with two wins over the Pacers and a win over the Magic. They also beat the Celtics by 32 on the road earlier this season and have been competitive in every loss except their opener.
Toronto is 20-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game. Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Roll with the Raptors Monday.
|11-01-21||Cavs +5.5 v. Hornets||Top||113-110||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +5.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They have outright wins as underdogs over the Hawks by 6 as 8-point home dogs, the Nuggets by 12 as 9.5-point road dogs and the Clippers by 13 as 8-point road dogs.
They did lose on the road to the Lakers by 12 as 7.5-point dogs, but covered in a 9-point loss at Phoenix as 10-point dogs. And I like their chances of covering this 5.5-point spread on the road against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. The Cavaliers have an underrated young core and will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.
This is a terrible spot for the Hornets. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-113 shootout victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Hornets, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA. They will be flat and tired tonight and Cleveland will take advantage. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|10-31-21||Rockets +11 v. Lakers||85-95||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +11
The Los Angeles Lakers cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number with how poorly they are playing to open the season. They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS with two of their wins coming by 4 points or less, and the other by 12 over the Cavaliers.
The Lakers are just dealing with too many injuries right now, and they are still trying to gel with Russell Westbrook at point guard. LeBron James, Wayne Ellington and Rajon Rondo are questionable, while Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza are out. It's no wonder they are struggling to win games let alone get margin.
I like some of the young talent on this Houston team, which has only lost twice in five games by more than 10 points. Christian Wood (19.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG) is one of the best young players in the NBA. Then they have Green (14.2 PPG), Gordon (13.8 PPG), Porter Jr. (12.4 PPG) and Tate (8.6 PPG) leading the way.
Houston is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games following a blowout loss by 30 points or more. The Rockets come in on two days' rest after that loss to the Jazz. The Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Take the Rockets Sunday.
|10-31-21||Cowboys v. Vikings -2.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||74 h 1 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
I was going to be on the Vikings before the news that Dak Prescott is unlikely to play came out Thursday. And now I'm jumping on this 2.5-point spread thinking if Prescott doesn't play this line will close a lot higher. And I like the Vikings to win by a field goal or more either way so it will be a bonus if he doesn't play.
The Vikings are 3-3 this season but very close to being 6-0. They lost in OT on the road to the Bengals after a fumble when they were in FG range to win. They missed an extra point and a short FG at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona, and that loss looks a lot better now with the Cardinals off to a 7-0 start. And they scored on their opening drive against the Browns but didn't score again in their 14-7 loss, and that was a healthy Browns team that was playing well.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys. They are the only team in the NFL that has covered every spread with a perfect 6-0 ATS record. But they have had a lot of turnover luck go their way as they have forced at least two turnovers in every game and 14 in six games overall. That is unsustainable.
The Cowboys still have a terrible defense that will get exposed here against this elite Minnesota offense. Dallas gives up 381 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Vikings are 17th in in defensive yards per play at 5.6 to compare.
This Minnesota offense averages 24.5 points and 414 yards per games to go along with 5.9 yards per play. Dalvin Cook is back in the fold, and Kirk Cousins is playing well. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio. And he won't have to try and match Dak Prescott score for score if he doesn't play.
Minnesota was a dominant home team under Mike Zimmer prior to the last two years due to the design of the stadium. It is loud and very tough for opponents. But not having fans last year makes us throw last year out. And they are 2-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Browns.
Minnesota is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 home games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in the last six home meetings. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|10-31-21||Kings +4.5 v. Mavs||Top||99-105||Loss||-105||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* Kings/Mavs Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Sacramento +4.5
The Sacramento Kings have impressed me a lot getting to 3-2 against a brutal early schedule. They have three outright road wins over the Blazers as 6.5-point dogs, the Suns as 8-point dogs and the Pelicans as 1.5-point favorites. Their two losses came to the Jazz and Warriors at home in competitive games.
Now the Kings had yesterday off and are fresh and ready to take down the Dallas Mavericks. This is a Mavericks team I just do not trust with Jason Kidd as head coach, and Kristaps Porzingis being the 'robin' to Doncic's 'batman. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS this season and coming off a 31-point road loss to the Nuggets. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.
Sacramento is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine Sunday home games. The Kings are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|10-31-21||Titans v. Colts -113||Top||34-31||Loss||-113||95 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -113
The Colts will be out for revenge from a 25-16 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season. They have been a different team since that loss. They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss came in overtime against the Ravens on the road after blowing a 19-point lead.
They beat the Dolphins by 10 on the road, the Texans by 28 at home and the 49ers by 12 on the road. Carson Wentz is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Colts are getting healthier by the week.
I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans. They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bills and Chiefs. That 27-3 win over the broken Chiefs last week has them overvalued. The Titans could be missing both starting tackles on the offensive line and their injury list is ugly.
Slowing down Derrick Henry is the key to slowing down the Titans. The Colts have a pretty good run defense in giving up just 111 rushing yards per game. The Titans have a weak defense this season that gives up nearly 380 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.
The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Colts are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-31-21||Rams v. Texans +14.5||38-22||Loss||-109||67 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +14.5
It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week after losing six straight and going 1-4 ATS in their five games since losing QB Tyrod Taylor to injury. The Texans looked great with Taylor in the first 1.5 games at QB, and now he is expected to make his much-anticipated return from a hamstring injury this week.
We'll gladly take the 14.5 points at home with the Texans. They were last seen at home nearly upsetting the Patriots as 8-point dogs in a 22-25 loss even with Davis Mills at QB. The other three games were all tough road losses to the Bills, Colts and Cardinals. Having Taylor back will allow them to stay within this massive spread against the Rams.
Los Angeles was in a dog fight with the Detroit Lions last week in a 28-19 home win. That's a Detroit team that is not any better than the Texans with Taylor. And it was an emotional game for Matthew Stafford against his former team. Now this is a letdown spot for the Rams, who probably feel like they just have to show up to win. It's also a 1:00 EST game which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams.
Taylor is completing 70.5% of his passes for 416 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his six quarters of action this season. He has also rushed for 55 yards and a score. He just brings a much needed dimension to this offense that Davis Mills lacked. He will keep the offense on the field for longer stretches, and that will help this defense get some rest, which it hasn't had much of with Mills under center.
The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-30-21||Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 44||30-20||Win||100||32 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State/SDSU OVER 44
The books have set this number too low based off of what San Diego State has been doing in recent weeks. The UNDER is 3-0 in SDSU's last three games overall. But all three games came against running teams in New Mexico (34 attempts), SJSU (42 attempts) and Air Force (48 attempts).
Fresno State will not oblige. The Bulldogs will put up some points and attack this San Diego State defense through the air, which is their biggest weakness. The Bulldogs average 35.6 points, 479.6 yards per game and 341 passing yards per game on 40 attempts per game. They will get their points, and San Diego State will be forced to try and get theirs too to keep up with them.
The Aztecs have been able to get their points this season, too, especially at home. They are scoring 31.0 points per game overall and 35.0 points per game at home. You can definitely score on this Fresno State defense, and the Aztecs should come close to their season average. They combine to average nearly 66 points per game on offense. So they can fall well short of that and still get this OVER 44 with ease.
The OVER is 8-2 in Bulldogs last 10 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-30-21||Thunder +12.5 v. Warriors||Top||82-103||Loss||-110||10 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have impressed me in their last two games. They covered as 9.5-point dogs in an 8-point home loss to Golden State two games back. They came back the very next night and upset the Lakers by 8 as 6-point home dogs last time out.
Now the Thunder want revenge from that 8-point loss to the Warriors. And they are catching 12.5 points this time around. Not only that, but the Thunder come in rested playing on two days' rest, so expect a big effort from them tonight.
The Warriors are overvalued after their 4-1 start this season. They have feasted on a pretty weak schedule as they were favored in four of their five games. And now they are laying their biggest number of the season here. They just don't have the talent to cover these big numbers, especially in this unfavorable spot. Take the Thunder Saturday.
|10-30-21||Hawks v. 76ers -3||Top||94-122||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3
The Philadelphia 76ers want revenge after getting upset by the Atlanta Hawks in the playoffs last year. This is their first shot at getting it, and I look for them to take advantage by getting the win and cover at home. The 76ers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the last few seasons.
The Hawks have not been good on the road this season. They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS on the highway. They were upset 95-101 at Cleveland as 8-point favorites. They only won 102-99 at New Orleans as 5-point favorites. And they lost 111-122 at Washington as 3-point favorites. And this will be their toughest road test to date.
Philadelphia is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games following an ATS loss. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
|10-30-21||Louisville +7 v. NC State||Top||13-28||Loss||-116||72 h 23 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +7
I like this Louisville team a lot. They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points. And the schedule has not been easy. I cashed Louisville as a free pick in a 28-14 win over Boston College last week.
They dominated that game and won by 14 despite committing four turnovers. They outgained Boston College by 172 yards. They have been competitive in every game outside of the opener against Ole Miss. And it turns out Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country.
NC State could easily suffer a hangover from that 1-point loss to Miami last week. Louisville has an elite offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 1,684 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 480 yards and being tied for the national league in rushing touchdowns (13). His dual-threat ability will be a handful for this NC State defense.
NC State is 0-10 ATS against good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last three seasons. Take Louisville Saturday.
|10-30-21||Knicks -5.5 v. Pelicans||123-117||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks -5.5
The New York Knicks are a real contender in the East this season with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go along with their already great core from last year that made the playoffs.
Fournier is averaging 17.2 points per game while Walker is at 14.2 points per game thus far in leading the Knicks to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start. Now the Knicks come in rested after beating the Bulls on the road on Thursday and having yesterday off.
The Pelicans don't have that same luxury. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a 109-113 home loss to the Kings last night. The Pelicans are just 1-5 this season and just aren't playing well without their best player in Zion Williamson. I faded them successfully with the Kings last night, and I'm fading them again tonight due to the awful spot.
The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in Saturday games over the last two seasons. They are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games. New York is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. The Knicks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites. New York is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to New Orleans. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|10-30-21||Kansas +30.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||3-55||Loss||-110||28 h 17 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas +30.5
Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their offense just isn't up to par compared to years' past for the Cowboys. And that's why despite being 6-1 they haven't won a single game by more than 11 points this season, and that includes their 23-16 win over Missouri State. They should not be laying 30.5 points to Kansas with that offense this week.
Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week. The Jayhawks got screwed by the refs as they stopped the Sooners on 4th and 1 down 5 with a chance to get the ball back and win the game. But the refs didn't rule forward progress stopped, and a fluky handoff from the RB back to the QB got the Sooners the first down.
Kansas is going to keep battling under first-year head coach Lance Leipold, who was one of the sneakiest coaching hires in the offseason. They continue to improve and have found their quarterback. Jason Bean completed 17-of-23 passes for 246 yards, while also rushing for 59 yards in the 23-35 loss to Oklahoma last week. He'll be able to make enough plays against this Oklahoma State defense to keep the Jayhawks within four touchdowns.
Oklahoma State opened 6-0 but then suffered that dream crushing loss to Iowa State on the road last week. Their chances of making the four-team playoff is basically out the door now, and I expect them to suffer a 'hangover' here against Kansas. They probably feel like they can just show up and win this game, and they'll just be going through the motions in practice all week. It will carry over into a flat effort Saturday.
The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning four or five of their last six games. Plays on underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (Kansas) - after four ore more consecutive losses in Weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with Kansas Saturday.
|10-30-21||Celtics +2 v. Wizards||112-115||Loss||-107||7 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston Celtics +2
I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight. They come in on two days' rest after losing 107-116 at home to Washington as 4-point favorites on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge on the Wizards three days later and are 2-point dogs this time around, a 6-point adjustment.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Wizards, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. And they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Celtics this time around. Plus, they are short-handed playing without Bryant, Hachimura and Gafford right now.
The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|10-30-21||Florida State +9.5 v. Clemson||20-30||Loss||-110||25 h 47 m||Show|
15* FSU/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +9.5
The Florida State Seminoles have turned around their season by going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. The 35-25 win at North Carolina as 17.5-point dogs showed their potential. And they basically had a bye last week, beating UMass 59-3 which allowed them to empty their bench and keep players fresh for this week's showdown with Clemson.
Clemson has been the biggest money burner in college football. They are good by name only, not by the product they put on the field. Clemson is 4-3 SU & 0-7 ATS this season. Their offense is broken, scoring 21 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season. The only exception was against FCS South Carolina State. Their lackluster offense is going to make it tough to beat Florida State by double-digits.
Don't be surprised to see Clemson just go through the motions the rest of the way. They already have three losses overall and two losses within the conference, so they won't be going to the four-team playoff and likely don't even have a chance to win the ACC. And I don't think they care much about it, either.
This is Florida State's 'Super Bowl'. The Seminoles will be highly motivated to end a five-game losing streak to Clemson in this head-to-head series, and this is their best chance in years to put an end to it. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Plays on any team (Florida State) - an excellent rushing team that averages at least 4.8 yards per carry against a team that rushes for 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 200 or more yards are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Florida State Saturday.
|10-30-21||Boston College +6.5 v. Syracuse||6-21||Loss||-105||25 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +6.5
It's time to 'sell high' on Syracuse. The Orange are coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech to improve to 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS this season. Now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against Boston College this week after being underdogs in seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against FCS Albany.
In fact, Syracuse is now favored for the first time over an FBS opponent in two years. Not only are they favored, they would have to win this game by 7-plus points to beat us to get the cover. Their offense just isn't good enough to get margin. Each of their last five games were decided by 5 points or fewer either way.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Boston College coming off three straight losses against three very good teams in Louisville, NC State and Clemson. They beat Missouri the game prior. They did have a bye three weeks ago so they are still fresh. And Syracuse if the tired team here playing for a 9th consecutive week to start the season. That's a huge factor in this game.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Eagles are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win. Take Boston College Saturday.
|10-30-21||Rutgers -1.5 v. Illinois||Top||20-14||Win||100||70 h 37 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -1.5
Rutgers wore down playing seven straight weeks to start the season and a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule. They went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS to open Big Ten play before having their bye last week. Now they come back refreshed and ready to try and make a bowl game by getting three more wins the rest the way.
They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season and take a big step down in class here against Illinois. It's a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Illini. They are coming off that crazy 9-OT road win at Penn State last week as 24.5-point dogs. I expect them to still be tired and to fall flat on their faces at home this week against Rutgers.
It's a great matchup for the Scarlet Knights. Illinois averages 184 rushing yards per game but just 139 passing. Rutgers has been great against the run. They give up just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 5.1 yards per carry. So they are holding their opponents to 1.1 yards per carry below their season average.
Illinois is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games with a total of 42 or less. The Scarlet Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Rutgers is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|10-30-21||Miami-FL +9.5 v. Pittsburgh||38-34||Win||100||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +9.5
Miami has some momentum after a season-saving win in a 31-30 upset victory over a very good NC State team last week. Freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke got huge praise from head coach Manny Diaz after the game, and rightfully so. He completed 25-of-33 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns against a great NC State defense.
Now the Hurricanes have their sights set on Pittsburgh, a team that is coming off one of the biggest wins in program history in a 27-17 victory over Clemson last week. But that was a big win in name only as Clemson is way down this season. And I look for the Panthers to suffer a letodwn this week, and it's a great time to 'sell high' on them after their 6-1 ATS start.
Miami has simply owned Pitt, going 17-3 SU in the last 20 meetings. The Panthers always seem to struggle with their athletes and will again in this matchup. Miami only lost by 2 to Virginia and by 3 to UNC in its two games prior to the win over NC State, so they have been playing well for weeks but just coming up short. This game is likely to be decided by one score, too.
The Hurricanes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset win as an underdog, including 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 10-22-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Miami Saturday.
|10-30-21||Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin||7-27||Loss||-116||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +3.5
The Wisconsin Badgers are a tired team right now playing for a 6th consecutive week with their last five games coming against Notre Dame, Michigan, Illinois, Army and Purdue. Now they have to face a physical Iowa team and it's a tough spot for them because of it.
Meanwhile, Iowa is fresh and prepared coming off its bye week following its first loss of the season against Purdue. The bye couldn't have come at a better time because it gives the Hawkeyes time to get healthy after playing seven straight weeks to start the season. It also makes it much easier to get over that 'dream crusher' type of loss to the Boilermakers. They can get back to focusing on just winning the West and beating Wisconsin here.
Iowa doesn't make mistakes, and Wisconsin does. The Badgers have committed 17 turnovers this season. Iowa has forced 21 turnovers. At some point, turnovers aren't luck with certain teams, and Iowa is a team you can trust every year to win the turnover battle more times than not. Wisconsin's Graham Mertz is awful and cannot be trusted to take care of the ball as he's shown time and time again this year.
This is a rare case where a Top 10 team is an underdog to an unranked team. Well, the last 10 times this has happened, the Top 10 underdog has gone 9-1 ATS. So I think we are definitely getting value here on the Hawkeyes at +3.5, especially in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal with the lowest total of the season at 36 points. This has 20-17 written all over it.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa) - in conference games off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite are 51-19 (72.9%) ATS since 1992. Kirk Ferentz is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse as the coach of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday.
|10-30-21||Texas State +21 v. UL-Lafayette||0-45||Loss||-110||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas State +21
It's time to 'sell high' on Louisiana-Lafayette after six straight victories. They just play to their level of competition. They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites.
Texas State is more than capable of staying within three touchdowns of Louisiana and likely taking this game down to the wire. The Bobcats are just 2-5 this season but four of those losses came by 12 points or less. That includes their 9-point loss to Baylor, which looks like a very good loss at this point.
Texas State has a decent up-tempo offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number. And this is the best Bobcats defense they have had in recent memory. They allow a respectable 422 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so it's at least an average defense this year.
Louisiana had a great team last year and only beat Texas State 44-34 as a 16.5-point favorite. Now they come back as 21-point favorites in the rematch, which is too much. Lafayette is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following six or more consecutive wins. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Texas State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game. Louisiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Roll with Texas State Saturday.
|10-29-21||UNLV +20 v. Nevada||Top||20-51||Loss||-108||12 h 8 m||Show|
20* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +20
UNLV is way undervalued right now due to its 0-7 record. But this team has come close to winning several times with five losses by one score. They could easily have a winning record right now. But because of that record, we are catching 20 points with them in this rivalry game with Nevada.
This game means a lot more to UNLV than it does to Nevada this year. The Wolf Pack are coming off a 32-34 loss to Fresno State that could easily cost them the conference title. They will suffer a hangover from that defeat. UNLV also played Fresno tough, only losing 30-38 on the road.
I like the spot for the Rebels. This is their 'Super Bowl'. They are also the fresher team and come in on seven days' rest after playing last Thursday. Nevada only comes in on five days' rest after playing Fresno late Saturday night.
UNLV is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. Each of the last four meetings were decided by 18 points or less, including three by one score. The Rebels are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet UNLV Friday.
|10-29-21||Kings -2 v. Pelicans||Top||113-109||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2
The Sacramento Kings have faced four playoff teams in the West thus far with one of the toughest schedules in the NBA. They have done well getting to 2-2 with two road wins over both the Blazers and Suns. They lost at home to the Jazz and Warriors.
Now the Kings take a big step down in competition here against the New Orleans Pelicans, who remain without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans are 1-4 this season with losses to the 76ers by 20, the Bulls by 16, the Timberwolves by 7 and the Hawks by 3. Their lone win came against the Timberwolves. There's just not much talent on this team with Zion out and the players they traded away in the offseason.
Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following a win by 6 points or less. The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Bet the Kings Friday.
|10-29-21||Astros +105 v. Braves||0-2||Loss||-100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Astros/Braves Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +105
The Houston Astros have the best offense in baseball. They have scored 5 runs or more in 13 of their last 15 games overall. And I'll ride that offense to victory again in Game 3 here against the Atlanta Braves and the shaky Ian Anderson.
Luis Garcia is 12-8 witha. 3.69 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 31 starts this season for the Astros. He just shut out the Red Sox in 5 2/3 innings while allowing only two base runners in a 5-0 victory in Game 6 to close out that last series. He'll come back with a ton of confidence from that start.
The Braves are 7-17 in their last 24 interleague games. Atlanta is 11-28 in its last 39 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves are 1-11 in their last 12 interleague home games. Houston is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Roll with the Astros Friday.
|10-28-21||Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals||Top||24-21||Win||100||25 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/Cardinals FOX No-Brainer on Green Bay +6.5
This line has gotten out of hand with the news that Devante Adams and Allen Lazard are out for the Packers. It has ballooned from Packers +3 to Packers +6.5, which is too big of an adjustment. There's now value to pull the trigger on the Packers Thursday night.
Quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers are a dime a dozen. He is capable of making his receivers better than they are. And I think he'll welcome the challenge here of trying to hand the Arizona Cardinals their first loss of the season without those two. Plus, the Packers are 6-0 the last three seasons without Adams and scoring 32.8 points per game, so they have had no problem scoring in his absence.
The Cardinals are already overvalued due to their perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS record this season. It's time to 'sell high' on them here Thursday night against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers. You could argue that Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and getting him as this big of a dog is very enticing.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off four straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.
Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Arizona is 1-11 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|10-28-21||Knicks v. Bulls -114||Top||104-103||Loss||-114||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls ML -114
The Chicago Bulls are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They are loaded with returnees Zach LaVine (25.5 PPG), Nikola Vucevic (14.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG) and Patrick Williams (6.8 PPG). But the additions of DeMar DeRozan (22.5 PPG), Lonzo Ball (14.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Alex Caruso (8.0 PPG) have made them a real contender in the East.
The New York Knicks just ended a 15-game losing streak to the Philadelphia 76ers with a 112-99 home victory on Tuesday. That makes this a letdown spot for them. I also like the fact that the Bulls are on extra rest as they have had the last two days off after last playing on Monday.
Chicago is 32-10 SU in its last 42 home meetings with New York. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Roll with the Bulls Thursday.
|10-28-21||Troy +17 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-35||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
20* Troy/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy +17
Coastal Carolina just suffered the type of dream crushing loss that could wreck their season, at least for a week. They had dreams of making a New Year's 6 Bowl likely taken away from them with their 27-30 road loss at Appalachian State last week.
That game wasn't even as close as the final score as they were outgained by 229 yards and gave up 575 total yards to the Mountaineers. Now they have to come back a week later and try and get back up off the mat to face Troy. I don't think they will be fully focused, and I think there will be a hangover effect from that defeat.
Troy is 4-3 this season and has been competitive in every game with its largest loss coming by 13 points. That includes an 8-point loss to Liberty, which is a team on Coastal Carolina's level. I think the Trojans can stay within this big number just as they did last season.
The Trojans will be playing with double-revenge after losing 35-36 to Coastal Carolina in 2019 and 38-42 as 12-point dogs last year, two losses by a combined 5 points. Troy also has the benefit of coming off a bye week with their last game coming two Saturday's ago. So they have had nearly two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Chanticleers.
The forecast is going to help us here, too. There is nearly a 100% chance of rain Thursday night with winds gusting between 20-30 MPH. That's going to make both teams have to run the football. And Troy has been elite at stopping the run. They only give up 95 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry this season. Coastal gives up 144 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Points will be hard to come by, which favors the big dog here.
Troy is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who force 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Troy Thursday.
|10-27-21||Lakers v. Thunder +8||Top||115-123||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. But it's a much better spot for the Thunder as they get to stay home following an 8-point loss to the Warriors last night.
The Lakers have to travel after facing the Spurs and escaping with a 125-121 victory. They also escaped with a 121-118 victory over the Grizzlies at home the game prior. They lost to the Suns by 10 and the Warriors by 7 at home as well. They are just 1-3 ATS this season and struggling to gel with Russell Westbrook.
Now the Lakers have more problems in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation. They have a plethora of injuries. Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Wayne Ellington are all questionable to play tonight. Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza were already out. They won't have enough bodies to put away the Thunder by 8-plus points tonight.
The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall. Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a win. Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with the Lakers. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|10-27-21||Wolves v. Bucks OVER 228||113-108||Loss||-115||10 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Bucks OVER 228
The Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves both prefer to play at fast paces. The Bucks rank 3rd in pace while the Timberwolves rank 5th. That should lead to a shootout between these two great offensive teams tonight.
Both meetings last season were very high-scoring. The Bucks won 139-112 at home for 251 combined points in their first meeting. The Bucks also won 130-105 on the road for 235 combined points in the second meeting. I think we are getting value with the OVER 228 tonight.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 5-1 in Bucks last six games playing on one days rest. The OVER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games as underdogs. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-27-21||Braves v. Astros -111||2-7||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
15* Braves/Astros Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -111
The Houston Astros will bounce back from a Game 1 loss and tie this series. They have scored 5 runs or more in 12 of their last 14 games and will get their bats going again tonight against Max Fried.
Fried allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Dodgers. He'll be opposed by Jose Urquidy, who has been at his best at home this season. Urquidy is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 10 home starts in 2021.
The Astros are 49-21 in their last 70 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Houston is 149-69 in its last 218 games as a home favorite. The Astros are 5-1 in the last six meetings. Roll with the Astros Wednesday.
|10-26-21||Braves v. Astros -129||6-2||Loss||-129||10 h 47 m||Show|
15* Braves/Astros Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -129
The Houston Astros have been a freight train at the plate and their best offense in baseball has carried them to the World Series. They have scored 5 runs or more in 12 of their last 13 games overall. They went 3-0 in their final three games against the Red Sox and outscored them 23-3 in the process.
The Braves have been a great story, but it isn't going to end well, starting with Game 1 tonight. Charlie Morton has posted a 5.05 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Astros. This will be one of his toughest tests of the season tonight.
Framber Valdez has been solid all season for the Astros. He has gone 12-6 with a 3.25 ERA in 25 starts this season. Houston is 59-20 in its last 79 games following an off day. The Astros are 94-38 in their last 132 during Game 1 of a series. Houston is 46-22 in its last 68 home games. Roll with the Astros in Game 1 Tuesday.
|10-26-21||76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218||99-112||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 218
I really like the UNDER in this game between the 76ers and Knicks tonight. The Knicks were the best UNDER team in the NBA last season, and their defense-first philosophy won't change under Tom Thibodeau this season. I think the fact that they have gone over the total in all three games this season provides us with value on the UNDER tonight.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The 76ers and Knicks have combined for 201 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. They have combined for 213 or fewer in six of their last seven as well. This has been an UNDER series and will continue to be tonight.
The UNDER is 17-8 in 76ers last 25 road games. The UNDER is 11-2 in 76ers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-26-21||76ers v. Knicks -114||Top||99-112||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks ML -114
The New York Knicks picked up two impressive wins over the Celtics and Magic by 25 in their first two games. I bet the Magic against them last game, and they won outright as 12-point dogs. It was a predictable letdown spot for the Magic in a home-and-home situation. But now we can 'buy low' on the Knicks here against the 76ers.
The 76ers have a lot of turmoil right now surrounding Ben Simmons. They also have a lot of injuries with Simmons out, and Embiid, Milton and Drummond all questionable. Their two wins came against the lowly Pelicans and Thunder. They lost to the best team they have faced in the Nets.
The Knicks are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games with a line of +3 to -3. The 76ers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. The Knicks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as favorites. New York is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.